Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species. PMID:28306735

Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

2014-01-01

The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.

A D-Estimator for Single-Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadish, William; Hedges, Larry; Pustejovsky, James; Rindskopf, David

2012-01-01

Over the last 10 years, numerous authors have proposed effect size estimators for single-case designs. None, however, has been shown to be equivalent to the usual between-groups standardized mean difference statistic, sometimes called d. The present paper remedies that omission. Most effect size estimators for single-case designs use the…

Effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on estimation accuracy of crop biophysical parameters.

PubMed

Luo, Shezhou; Chen, Jing M; Wang, Cheng; Xi, Xiaohuan; Zeng, Hongcheng; Peng, Dailiang; Li, Dong

2016-05-30

Vegetation leaf area index (LAI), height, and aboveground biomass are key biophysical parameters. Corn is an important and globally distributed crop, and reliable estimations of these parameters are essential for corn yield forecasting, health monitoring and ecosystem modeling. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is considered an effective technology for estimating vegetation biophysical parameters. However, the estimation accuracies of these parameters are affected by multiple factors. In this study, we first estimated corn LAI, height and biomass (R² = 0.80, 0.874 and 0.838, respectively) using the original LiDAR data (7.32 points/m²), and the results showed that LiDAR data could accurately estimate these biophysical parameters. Second, comprehensive research was conducted on the effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on the estimation accuracy of LAI, height and biomass. Our findings indicated that LiDAR point density had an important effect on the estimation accuracy for vegetation biophysical parameters, however, high point density did not always produce highly accurate estimates, and reduced point density could deliver reasonable estimation results. Furthermore, the results showed that sampling size and height threshold were additional key factors that affect the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Therefore, the optimal sampling size and the height threshold should be determined to improve the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Our results also implied that a higher LiDAR point density, larger sampling size and height threshold were required to obtain accurate corn LAI estimation when compared with height and biomass estimations. In general, our results provide valuable guidance for LiDAR data acquisition and estimation of vegetation biophysical parameters using LiDAR data.

Correct Effect Size Estimates for Strength of Association Statistics: Comment on Odgaard and Fowler (2010)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lerner, Matthew D.; Mikami, Amori Yee

2013-01-01

Odgaard and Fowler (2010) articulated the importance of reporting confidence intervals (CIs) on effect size estimates, and they provided useful formulas for doing so. However, one of their reported formulas, pertaining to the calculation of CIs on strength of association effect sizes (e.g., R[squared] or [eta][squared]), is erroneous. This comment…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

The impact of multiple endpoint dependency on Q and I(2) in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Christopher Glen; Becker, Betsy Jane

2014-09-01

A common assumption in meta-analysis is that effect sizes are independent. When correlated effect sizes are analyzed using traditional univariate techniques, this assumption is violated. This research assesses the impact of dependence arising from treatment-control studies with multiple endpoints on homogeneity measures Q and I(2) in scenarios using the unbiased standardized-mean-difference effect size. Univariate and multivariate meta-analysis methods are examined. Conditions included different overall outcome effects, study sample sizes, numbers of studies, between-outcomes correlations, dependency structures, and ways of computing the correlation. The univariate approach used typical fixed-effects analyses whereas the multivariate approach used generalized least-squares (GLS) estimates of a fixed-effects model, weighted by the inverse variance-covariance matrix. Increased dependence among effect sizes led to increased Type I error rates from univariate models. When effect sizes were strongly dependent, error rates were drastically higher than nominal levels regardless of study sample size and number of studies. In contrast, using GLS estimation to account for multiple-endpoint dependency maintained error rates within nominal levels. Conversely, mean I(2) values were not greatly affected by increased amounts of dependency. Last, we point out that the between-outcomes correlation should be estimated as a pooled within-groups correlation rather than using a full-sample estimator that does not consider treatment/control group membership. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finite-size analysis of continuous-variable measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xueying; Zhang, Yichen; Zhao, Yijia; Wang, Xiangyu; Yu, Song; Guo, Hong

2017-10-01

We study the impact of the finite-size effect on the continuous-variable measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution (CV-MDI QKD) protocol, mainly considering the finite-size effect on the parameter estimation procedure. The central-limit theorem and maximum likelihood estimation theorem are used to estimate the parameters. We also analyze the relationship between the number of exchanged signals and the optimal modulation variance in the protocol. It is proved that when Charlie's position is close to Bob, the CV-MDI QKD protocol has the farthest transmission distance in the finite-size scenario. Finally, we discuss the impact of finite-size effects related to the practical detection in the CV-MDI QKD protocol. The overall results indicate that the finite-size effect has a great influence on the secret-key rate of the CV-MDI QKD protocol and should not be ignored.

Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

2017-12-22

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting predictions with genetic measurements, is a general, applicable strategy that can be used to inform conservation practice. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Effect of Primary School Size on Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gershenson, Seth; Langbein, Laura

2015-01-01

Evidence on optimal school size is mixed. We estimate the effect of transitory changes in school size on the academic achievement of fourth-and fifth-grade students in North Carolina using student-level longitudinal administrative data. Estimates of value-added models that condition on school-specific linear time trends and a variety of…

A Practical Method of Policy Analysis by Estimating Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phelps, James L.

2011-01-01

The previous articles on class size and other productivity research paint a complex and confusing picture of the relationship between policy variables and student achievement. Missing is a conceptual scheme capable of combining the seemingly unrelated research and dissimilar estimates of effect size into a unified structure for policy analysis and…

Sample size adjustments for varying cluster sizes in cluster randomized trials with binary outcomes analyzed with second-order PQL mixed logistic regression.

PubMed

Candel, Math J J M; Van Breukelen, Gerard J P

2010-06-30

Adjustments of sample size formulas are given for varying cluster sizes in cluster randomized trials with a binary outcome when testing the treatment effect with mixed effects logistic regression using second-order penalized quasi-likelihood estimation (PQL). Starting from first-order marginal quasi-likelihood (MQL) estimation of the treatment effect, the asymptotic relative efficiency of unequal versus equal cluster sizes is derived. A Monte Carlo simulation study shows this asymptotic relative efficiency to be rather accurate for realistic sample sizes, when employing second-order PQL. An approximate, simpler formula is presented to estimate the efficiency loss due to varying cluster sizes when planning a trial. In many cases sampling 14 per cent more clusters is sufficient to repair the efficiency loss due to varying cluster sizes. Since current closed-form formulas for sample size calculation are based on first-order MQL, planning a trial also requires a conversion factor to obtain the variance of the second-order PQL estimator. In a second Monte Carlo study, this conversion factor turned out to be 1.25 at most. (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Children's accuracy of portion size estimation using digital food images: effects of interface design and size of image on computer screen.

PubMed

Baranowski, Tom; Baranowski, Janice C; Watson, Kathleen B; Martin, Shelby; Beltran, Alicia; Islam, Noemi; Dadabhoy, Hafza; Adame, Su-heyla; Cullen, Karen; Thompson, Debbe; Buday, Richard; Subar, Amy

2011-03-01

To test the effect of image size and presence of size cues on the accuracy of portion size estimation by children. Children were randomly assigned to seeing images with or without food size cues (utensils and checked tablecloth) and were presented with sixteen food models (foods commonly eaten by children) in varying portion sizes, one at a time. They estimated each food model's portion size by selecting a digital food image. The same food images were presented in two ways: (i) as small, graduated portion size images all on one screen or (ii) by scrolling across large, graduated portion size images, one per sequential screen. Laboratory-based with computer and food models. Volunteer multi-ethnic sample of 120 children, equally distributed by gender and ages (8 to 13 years) in 2008-2009. Average percentage of correctly classified foods was 60·3 %. There were no differences in accuracy by any design factor or demographic characteristic. Multiple small pictures on the screen at once took half the time to estimate portion size compared with scrolling through large pictures. Larger pictures had more overestimation of size. Multiple images of successively larger portion sizes of a food on one computer screen facilitated quicker portion size responses with no decrease in accuracy. This is the method of choice for portion size estimation on a computer.

Risk estimation using probability machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Risk estimation using probability machines.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

2014-03-01

Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

Equations for hydraulic conductivity estimation from particle size distribution: A dimensional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ji-Peng; François, Bertrand; Lambert, Pierre

2017-09-01

Estimating hydraulic conductivity from particle size distribution (PSD) is an important issue for various engineering problems. Classical models such as Hazen model, Beyer model, and Kozeny-Carman model usually regard the grain diameter at 10% passing (d10) as an effective grain size and the effects of particle size uniformity (in Beyer model) or porosity (in Kozeny-Carman model) are sometimes embedded. This technical note applies the dimensional analysis (Buckingham's ∏ theorem) to analyze the relationship between hydraulic conductivity and particle size distribution (PSD). The porosity is regarded as a dependent variable on the grain size distribution in unconsolidated conditions. It indicates that the coefficient of grain size uniformity and a dimensionless group representing the gravity effect, which is proportional to the mean grain volume, are the main two determinative parameters for estimating hydraulic conductivity. Regression analysis is then carried out on a database comprising 431 samples collected from different depositional environments and new equations are developed for hydraulic conductivity estimation. The new equation, validated in specimens beyond the database, shows an improved prediction comparing to using the classic models.

Do adults show a curse of knowledge in false-belief reasoning? A robust estimate of the true effect size.

PubMed

Ryskin, Rachel A; Brown-Schmidt, Sarah

2014-01-01

Seven experiments use large sample sizes to robustly estimate the effect size of a previous finding that adults are more likely to commit egocentric errors in a false-belief task when the egocentric response is plausible in light of their prior knowledge. We estimate the true effect size to be less than half of that reported in the original findings. Even though we found effects in the same direction as the original, they were substantively smaller; the original study would have had less than 33% power to detect an effect of this magnitude. The influence of plausibility on the curse of knowledge in adults appears to be small enough that its impact on real-life perspective-taking may need to be reevaluated.

Sample size requirements for estimating effective dose from computed tomography using solid-state metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor dosimetry

PubMed Central

Trattner, Sigal; Cheng, Bin; Pieniazek, Radoslaw L.; Hoffmann, Udo; Douglas, Pamela S.; Einstein, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Effective dose (ED) is a widely used metric for comparing ionizing radiation burden between different imaging modalities, scanners, and scan protocols. In computed tomography (CT), ED can be estimated by performing scans on an anthropomorphic phantom in which metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) solid-state dosimeters have been placed to enable organ dose measurements. Here a statistical framework is established to determine the sample size (number of scans) needed for estimating ED to a desired precision and confidence, for a particular scanner and scan protocol, subject to practical limitations. Methods: The statistical scheme involves solving equations which minimize the sample size required for estimating ED to desired precision and confidence. It is subject to a constrained variation of the estimated ED and solved using the Lagrange multiplier method. The scheme incorporates measurement variation introduced both by MOSFET calibration, and by variation in MOSFET readings between repeated CT scans. Sample size requirements are illustrated on cardiac, chest, and abdomen–pelvis CT scans performed on a 320-row scanner and chest CT performed on a 16-row scanner. Results: Sample sizes for estimating ED vary considerably between scanners and protocols. Sample size increases as the required precision or confidence is higher and also as the anticipated ED is lower. For example, for a helical chest protocol, for 95% confidence and 5% precision for the ED, 30 measurements are required on the 320-row scanner and 11 on the 16-row scanner when the anticipated ED is 4 mSv; these sample sizes are 5 and 2, respectively, when the anticipated ED is 10 mSv. Conclusions: Applying the suggested scheme, it was found that even at modest sample sizes, it is feasible to estimate ED with high precision and a high degree of confidence. As CT technology develops enabling ED to be lowered, more MOSFET measurements are needed to estimate ED with the same precision and confidence. PMID:24694150

Economic Effects of Increased Control Zone Sizes in Conflict Resolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik

1998-01-01

A methodology for estimating the economic effects of different control zone sizes used in conflict resolutions between aircraft is presented in this paper. The methodology is based on estimating the difference in flight times of aircraft with and without the control zone, and converting the difference into a direct operating cost. Using this methodology the effects of increased lateral and vertical control zone sizes are evaluated.

Modeling grain-size dependent bias in estimating forest area: a regional application

Treesearch

Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

2008-01-01

A better understanding of scaling-up effects on estimating important landscape characteristics (e.g. forest percentage) is critical for improving ecological applications over large areas. This study illustrated effects of changing grain sizes on regional forest estimates in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan of the USA using 30-m land-cover maps (1992 and 2001)...

Relative efficiency of unequal versus equal cluster sizes in cluster randomized trials using generalized estimating equation models.

PubMed

Liu, Jingxia; Colditz, Graham A

2018-05-01

There is growing interest in conducting cluster randomized trials (CRTs). For simplicity in sample size calculation, the cluster sizes are assumed to be identical across all clusters. However, equal cluster sizes are not guaranteed in practice. Therefore, the relative efficiency (RE) of unequal versus equal cluster sizes has been investigated when testing the treatment effect. One of the most important approaches to analyze a set of correlated data is the generalized estimating equation (GEE) proposed by Liang and Zeger, in which the "working correlation structure" is introduced and the association pattern depends on a vector of association parameters denoted by ρ. In this paper, we utilize GEE models to test the treatment effect in a two-group comparison for continuous, binary, or count data in CRTs. The variances of the estimator of the treatment effect are derived for the different types of outcome. RE is defined as the ratio of variance of the estimator of the treatment effect for equal to unequal cluster sizes. We discuss a commonly used structure in CRTs-exchangeable, and derive the simpler formula of RE with continuous, binary, and count outcomes. Finally, REs are investigated for several scenarios of cluster size distributions through simulation studies. We propose an adjusted sample size due to efficiency loss. Additionally, we also propose an optimal sample size estimation based on the GEE models under a fixed budget for known and unknown association parameter (ρ) in the working correlation structure within the cluster. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Meta-Analysis With Complex Research Designs: Dealing With Dependence From Multiple Measures and Multiple Group Comparisons

PubMed Central

Scammacca, Nancy; Roberts, Greg; Stuebing, Karla K.

2013-01-01

Previous research has shown that treating dependent effect sizes as independent inflates the variance of the mean effect size and introduces bias by giving studies with more effect sizes more weight in the meta-analysis. This article summarizes the different approaches to handling dependence that have been advocated by methodologists, some of which are more feasible to implement with education research studies than others. A case study using effect sizes from a recent meta-analysis of reading interventions is presented to compare the results obtained from different approaches to dealing with dependence. Overall, mean effect sizes and variance estimates were found to be similar, but estimates of indexes of heterogeneity varied. Meta-analysts are advised to explore the effect of the method of handling dependence on the heterogeneity estimates before conducting moderator analyses and to choose the approach to dependence that is best suited to their research question and their data set. PMID:25309002

Effect size calculation in meta-analyses of psychotherapy outcome research.

PubMed

Hoyt, William T; Del Re, A C

2018-05-01

Meta-analysis of psychotherapy intervention research normally examines differences between treatment groups and some form of comparison group (e.g., wait list control; alternative treatment group). The effect of treatment is normally quantified as a standardized mean difference (SMD). We describe procedures for computing unbiased estimates of the population SMD from sample data (e.g., group Ms and SDs), and provide guidance about a number of complications that may arise related to effect size computation. These complications include (a) incomplete data in research reports; (b) use of baseline data in computing SMDs and estimating the population standard deviation (σ); (c) combining effect size data from studies using different research designs; and (d) appropriate techniques for analysis of data from studies providing multiple estimates of the effect of interest (i.e., dependent effect sizes). Clinical or Methodological Significance of this article: Meta-analysis is a set of techniques for producing valid summaries of existing research. The initial computational step for meta-analyses of research on intervention outcomes involves computing an effect size quantifying the change attributable to the intervention. We discuss common issues in the computation of effect sizes and provide recommended procedures to address them.

Robust Variance Estimation with Dependent Effect Sizes: Practical Considerations Including a Software Tutorial in Stata and SPSS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanner-Smith, Emily E.; Tipton, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Methodologists have recently proposed robust variance estimation as one way to handle dependent effect sizes in meta-analysis. Software macros for robust variance estimation in meta-analysis are currently available for Stata (StataCorp LP, College Station, TX, USA) and SPSS (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA), yet there is little guidance for authors regarding…

Overlap between treatment and control distributions as an effect size measure in experiments.

PubMed

Hedges, Larry V; Olkin, Ingram

2016-03-01

The proportion π of treatment group observations that exceed the control group mean has been proposed as an effect size measure for experiments that randomly assign independent units into 2 groups. We give the exact distribution of a simple estimator of π based on the standardized mean difference and use it to study the small sample bias of this estimator. We also give the minimum variance unbiased estimator of π under 2 models, one in which the variance of the mean difference is known and one in which the variance is unknown. We show how to use the relation between the standardized mean difference and the overlap measure to compute confidence intervals for π and show that these results can be used to obtain unbiased estimators, large sample variances, and confidence intervals for 3 related effect size measures based on the overlap. Finally, we show how the effect size π can be used in a meta-analysis. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

Sample size requirements for estimating effective dose from computed tomography using solid-state metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor dosimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trattner, Sigal; Cheng, Bin; Pieniazek, Radoslaw L.

2014-04-15

Purpose: Effective dose (ED) is a widely used metric for comparing ionizing radiation burden between different imaging modalities, scanners, and scan protocols. In computed tomography (CT), ED can be estimated by performing scans on an anthropomorphic phantom in which metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) solid-state dosimeters have been placed to enable organ dose measurements. Here a statistical framework is established to determine the sample size (number of scans) needed for estimating ED to a desired precision and confidence, for a particular scanner and scan protocol, subject to practical limitations. Methods: The statistical scheme involves solving equations which minimize the sample sizemore » required for estimating ED to desired precision and confidence. It is subject to a constrained variation of the estimated ED and solved using the Lagrange multiplier method. The scheme incorporates measurement variation introduced both by MOSFET calibration, and by variation in MOSFET readings between repeated CT scans. Sample size requirements are illustrated on cardiac, chest, and abdomen–pelvis CT scans performed on a 320-row scanner and chest CT performed on a 16-row scanner. Results: Sample sizes for estimating ED vary considerably between scanners and protocols. Sample size increases as the required precision or confidence is higher and also as the anticipated ED is lower. For example, for a helical chest protocol, for 95% confidence and 5% precision for the ED, 30 measurements are required on the 320-row scanner and 11 on the 16-row scanner when the anticipated ED is 4 mSv; these sample sizes are 5 and 2, respectively, when the anticipated ED is 10 mSv. Conclusions: Applying the suggested scheme, it was found that even at modest sample sizes, it is feasible to estimate ED with high precision and a high degree of confidence. As CT technology develops enabling ED to be lowered, more MOSFET measurements are needed to estimate ED with the same precision and confidence.« less

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Effective population size of korean populations.

PubMed

Park, Leeyoung

2014-12-01

Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century.

Accounting for One-Group Clustering in Effect-Size Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Citkowicz, Martyna; Hedges, Larry V.

2013-01-01

In some instances, intentionally or not, study designs are such that there is clustering in one group but not in the other. This paper describes methods for computing effect size estimates and their variances when there is clustering in only one group and the analysis has not taken that clustering into account. The authors provide the effect size…

Bias Corrections for Standardized Effect Size Estimates Used with Single-Subject Experimental Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ugille, Maaike; Moeyaert, Mariola; Beretvas, S. Natasha; Ferron, John M.; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2014-01-01

A multilevel meta-analysis can combine the results of several single-subject experimental design studies. However, the estimated effects are biased if the effect sizes are standardized and the number of measurement occasions is small. In this study, the authors investigated 4 approaches to correct for this bias. First, the standardized effect…

A standardized mean difference effect size for multiple baseline designs across individuals.

PubMed

Hedges, Larry V; Pustejovsky, James E; Shadish, William R

2013-12-01

Single-case designs are a class of research methods for evaluating treatment effects by measuring outcomes repeatedly over time while systematically introducing different condition (e.g., treatment and control) to the same individual. The designs are used across fields such as behavior analysis, clinical psychology, special education, and medicine. Emerging standards for single-case designs have focused attention on methods for summarizing and meta-analyzing findings and on the need for effect sizes indices that are comparable to those used in between-subjects designs. In the previous work, we discussed how to define and estimate an effect size that is directly comparable to the standardized mean difference often used in between-subjects research based on the data from a particular type of single-case design, the treatment reversal or (AB)(k) design. This paper extends the effect size measure to another type of single-case study, the multiple baseline design. We propose estimation methods for the effect size and its variance, study the estimators using simulation, and demonstrate the approach in two applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A simple method for estimating the size of nuclei on fractal surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Qiang

2017-10-01

Determining the size of nuclei on complex surfaces remains a big challenge in aspects of biological, material and chemical engineering. Here the author reported a simple method to estimate the size of the nuclei in contact with complex (fractal) surfaces. The established approach was based on the assumptions of contact area proportionality for determining nucleation density and the scaling congruence between nuclei and surfaces for identifying contact regimes. It showed three different regimes governing the equations for estimating the nucleation site density. Nuclei in the size large enough could eliminate the effect of fractal structure. Nuclei in the size small enough could lead to the independence of nucleation site density on fractal parameters. Only when nuclei match the fractal scales, the nucleation site density is associated with the fractal parameters and the size of the nuclei in a coupling pattern. The method was validated by the experimental data reported in the literature. The method may provide an effective way to estimate the size of nuclei on fractal surfaces, through which a number of promising applications in relative fields can be envisioned.

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

Treesearch

Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

2012-01-01

The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

One-step estimation of networked population size: Respondent-driven capture-recapture with anonymity.

PubMed

Khan, Bilal; Lee, Hsuan-Wei; Fellows, Ian; Dombrowski, Kirk

2018-01-01

Size estimation is particularly important for populations whose members experience disproportionate health issues or pose elevated health risks to the ambient social structures in which they are embedded. Efforts to derive size estimates are often frustrated when the population is hidden or hard-to-reach in ways that preclude conventional survey strategies, as is the case when social stigma is associated with group membership or when group members are involved in illegal activities. This paper extends prior research on the problem of network population size estimation, building on established survey/sampling methodologies commonly used with hard-to-reach groups. Three novel one-step, network-based population size estimators are presented, for use in the context of uniform random sampling, respondent-driven sampling, and when networks exhibit significant clustering effects. We give provably sufficient conditions for the consistency of these estimators in large configuration networks. Simulation experiments across a wide range of synthetic network topologies validate the performance of the estimators, which also perform well on a real-world location-based social networking data set with significant clustering. Finally, the proposed schemes are extended to allow them to be used in settings where participant anonymity is required. Systematic experiments show favorable tradeoffs between anonymity guarantees and estimator performance. Taken together, we demonstrate that reasonable population size estimates are derived from anonymous respondent driven samples of 250-750 individuals, within ambient populations of 5,000-40,000. The method thus represents a novel and cost-effective means for health planners and those agencies concerned with health and disease surveillance to estimate the size of hidden populations. We discuss limitations and future work in the concluding section.

Treatment effect on biases in size estimation in spider phobia.

PubMed

Shiban, Youssef; Fruth, Martina B; Pauli, Paul; Kinateder, Max; Reichenberger, Jonas; Mühlberger, Andreas

2016-12-01

The current study investigates biases in size estimations made by spider-phobic and healthy participants before and after treatment. Forty-one spider-phobic and 20 healthy participants received virtual reality (VR) exposure treatment and were then asked to rate the size of a real spider immediately before and, on average, 15days after the treatment. During the VR exposure treatment skin conductance response was assessed. Prior to the treatment, both groups tended to overestimate the size of the spider, but this size estimation bias was significantly larger in the phobic group than in the control group. The VR exposure treatment reduced this bias, which was reflected in a significantly smaller size rating post treatment. However, the size estimation bias was unrelated to the skin conductance response. Our results confirm the hypothesis that size estimation by spider-phobic patients is biased. This bias is not stable over time and can be decreased with adequate treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association of Mass Media Communication with Contraceptive Use in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Meta-Analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Babalola, Stella; Figueroa, Maria-Elena; Krenn, Susan

2017-11-01

Literature abounds with evidence on the effectiveness of individual mass media interventions on contraceptive use and other health behaviors. There have been, however, very few studies summarizing effect sizes of mass media health communication campaigns in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we used meta-analytic techniques to pool data from 47 demographic and health surveys conducted between 2005 and 2015 in 31 sub-Saharan African countries and estimate the prevalence of exposure to family planning-related mass media communication. We also estimated the average effect size of exposure to mass media communication after adjusting for endogeneity. We performed meta-regression to assess the moderating role of selected variables on effect size. On average, 44% of women in sub-Saharan Africa were exposed to family planning-related mass media interventions in the year preceding the survey. Overall, exposure was associated with an effect size equivalent to an odds ratio of 1.93. More recent surveys demonstrated smaller effect sizes than earlier ones, while the effects were larger in lower contraceptive prevalence settings than in higher prevalence ones. The findings have implications for designing communication programs, setting expectations about communication impact, and guiding decisions about sample size estimation for mass media evaluation studies.

Meta-analysis of multiple outcomes: a multilevel approach.

PubMed

Van den Noortgate, Wim; López-López, José Antonio; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio; Sánchez-Meca, Julio

2015-12-01

In meta-analysis, dependent effect sizes are very common. An example is where in one or more studies the effect of an intervention is evaluated on multiple outcome variables for the same sample of participants. In this paper, we evaluate a three-level meta-analytic model to account for this kind of dependence, extending the simulation results of Van den Noortgate, López-López, Marín-Martínez, and Sánchez-Meca Behavior Research Methods, 45, 576-594 (2013) by allowing for a variation in the number of effect sizes per study, in the between-study variance, in the correlations between pairs of outcomes, and in the sample size of the studies. At the same time, we explore the performance of the approach if the outcomes used in a study can be regarded as a random sample from a population of outcomes. We conclude that although this approach is relatively simple and does not require prior estimates of the sampling covariances between effect sizes, it gives appropriate mean effect size estimates, standard error estimates, and confidence interval coverage proportions in a variety of realistic situations.

Optimal flexible sample size design with robust power.

PubMed

Zhang, Lanju; Cui, Lu; Yang, Bo

2016-08-30

It is well recognized that sample size determination is challenging because of the uncertainty on the treatment effect size. Several remedies are available in the literature. Group sequential designs start with a sample size based on a conservative (smaller) effect size and allow early stop at interim looks. Sample size re-estimation designs start with a sample size based on an optimistic (larger) effect size and allow sample size increase if the observed effect size is smaller than planned. Different opinions favoring one type over the other exist. We propose an optimal approach using an appropriate optimality criterion to select the best design among all the candidate designs. Our results show that (1) for the same type of designs, for example, group sequential designs, there is room for significant improvement through our optimization approach; (2) optimal promising zone designs appear to have no advantages over optimal group sequential designs; and (3) optimal designs with sample size re-estimation deliver the best adaptive performance. We conclude that to deal with the challenge of sample size determination due to effect size uncertainty, an optimal approach can help to select the best design that provides most robust power across the effect size range of interest. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reporting Point and Interval Estimates of Effect-Size for Planned Contrasts: Fixed within Effect Analyses of Variance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robey, Randall R.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this tutorial is threefold: (a) review the state of statistical science regarding effect-sizes, (b) illustrate the importance of effect-sizes for interpreting findings in all forms of research and particularly for results of clinical-outcome research, and (c) demonstrate just how easily a criterion on reporting effect-sizes in…

The use of SNP data for the monitoring of genetic diversity in cattle breeds

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

LD between SNPs contains information about effective population size. In this study, we investigate the use of genome-wide SNP data for marker based estimation of effective population size for two taurine cattle breeds of Africa and two local cattle breeds of Switzerland. Estimated recombination rat...

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Body size estimation of self and others in females varying in BMI.

PubMed

Thaler, Anne; Geuss, Michael N; Mölbert, Simone C; Giel, Katrin E; Streuber, Stephan; Romero, Javier; Black, Michael J; Mohler, Betty J

2018-01-01

Previous literature suggests that a disturbed ability to accurately identify own body size may contribute to overweight. Here, we investigated the influence of personal body size, indexed by body mass index (BMI), on body size estimation in a non-clinical population of females varying in BMI. We attempted to disentangle general biases in body size estimates and attitudinal influences by manipulating whether participants believed the body stimuli (personalized avatars with realistic weight variations) represented their own body or that of another person. Our results show that the accuracy of own body size estimation is predicted by personal BMI, such that participants with lower BMI underestimated their body size and participants with higher BMI overestimated their body size. Further, participants with higher BMI were less likely to notice the same percentage of weight gain than participants with lower BMI. Importantly, these results were only apparent when participants were judging a virtual body that was their own identity (Experiment 1), but not when they estimated the size of a body with another identity and the same underlying body shape (Experiment 2a). The different influences of BMI on accuracy of body size estimation and sensitivity to weight change for self and other identity suggests that effects of BMI on visual body size estimation are self-specific and not generalizable to other bodies.

Body size estimation of self and others in females varying in BMI

PubMed Central

Geuss, Michael N.; Mölbert, Simone C.; Giel, Katrin E.; Streuber, Stephan; Romero, Javier; Black, Michael J.; Mohler, Betty J.

2018-01-01

Previous literature suggests that a disturbed ability to accurately identify own body size may contribute to overweight. Here, we investigated the influence of personal body size, indexed by body mass index (BMI), on body size estimation in a non-clinical population of females varying in BMI. We attempted to disentangle general biases in body size estimates and attitudinal influences by manipulating whether participants believed the body stimuli (personalized avatars with realistic weight variations) represented their own body or that of another person. Our results show that the accuracy of own body size estimation is predicted by personal BMI, such that participants with lower BMI underestimated their body size and participants with higher BMI overestimated their body size. Further, participants with higher BMI were less likely to notice the same percentage of weight gain than participants with lower BMI. Importantly, these results were only apparent when participants were judging a virtual body that was their own identity (Experiment 1), but not when they estimated the size of a body with another identity and the same underlying body shape (Experiment 2a). The different influences of BMI on accuracy of body size estimation and sensitivity to weight change for self and other identity suggests that effects of BMI on visual body size estimation are self-specific and not generalizable to other bodies. PMID:29425218

Estimation of the bottleneck size in Florida panthers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culver, M.; Hedrick, P.W.; Murphy, K.; O'Brien, S.; Hornocker, M.G.

2008-01-01

We have estimated the extent of genetic variation in museum (1890s) and contemporary (1980s) samples of Florida panthers Puma concolor coryi for both nuclear loci and mtDNA. The microsatellite heterozygosity in the contemporary sample was only 0.325 that in the museum samples although our sample size and number of loci are limited. Support for this estimate is provided by a sample of 84 microsatellite loci in contemporary Florida panthers and Idaho pumas Puma concolor hippolestes in which the contemporary Florida panther sample had only 0.442 the heterozygosity of Idaho pumas. The estimated diversities in mtDNA in the museum and contemporary samples were 0.600 and 0.000, respectively. Using a population genetics approach, we have estimated that to reduce either the microsatellite heterozygosity or the mtDNA diversity this much (in a period of c. 80years during the 20th century when the numbers were thought to be low) that a very small bottleneck size of c. 2 for several generations and a small effective population size in other generations is necessary. Using demographic data from Yellowstone pumas, we estimated the ratio of effective to census population size to be 0.315. Using this ratio, the census population size in the Florida panthers necessary to explain the loss of microsatellite variation was c .41 for the non-bottleneck generations and 6.2 for the two bottleneck generations. These low bottleneck population sizes and the concomitant reduced effectiveness of selection are probably responsible for the high frequency of several detrimental traits in Florida panthers, namely undescended testicles and poor sperm quality. The recent intensive monitoring both before and after the introduction of Texas pumas in 1995 will make the recovery and genetic restoration of Florida panthers a classic study of an endangered species. Our estimates of the bottleneck size responsible for the loss of genetic variation in the Florida panther completes an unknown aspect of this account. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 The Zoological Society of London.

Sizing up arthropod genomes: an evaluation of the impact of environmental variation on genome size estimates by flow cytometry and the use of qPCR as a method of estimation.

PubMed

Gregory, T Ryan; Nathwani, Paula; Bonnett, Tiffany R; Huber, Dezene P W

2013-09-01

A study was undertaken to evaluate both a pre-existing method and a newly proposed approach for the estimation of nuclear genome sizes in arthropods. First, concerns regarding the reliability of the well-established method of flow cytometry relating to impacts of rearing conditions on genome size estimates were examined. Contrary to previous reports, a more carefully controlled test found negligible environmental effects on genome size estimates in the fly Drosophila melanogaster. Second, a more recently touted method based on quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was examined in terms of ease of use, efficiency, and (most importantly) accuracy using four test species: the flies Drosophila melanogaster and Musca domestica and the beetles Tribolium castaneum and Dendroctonus ponderosa. The results of this analysis demonstrated that qPCR has the tendency to produce substantially different genome size estimates from other established techniques while also being far less efficient than existing methods.

What is the effect of area size when using local area practice style as an instrument?

PubMed

Brooks, John M; Tang, Yuexin; Chapman, Cole G; Cook, Elizabeth A; Chrischilles, Elizabeth A

2013-08-01

Discuss the tradeoffs inherent in choosing a local area size when using a measure of local area practice style as an instrument in instrumental variable estimation when assessing treatment effectiveness. Assess the effectiveness of angiotensin converting-enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers on survival after acute myocardial infarction for Medicare beneficiaries using practice style instruments based on different-sized local areas around patients. We contrasted treatment effect estimates using different local area sizes in terms of the strength of the relationship between local area practice styles and individual patient treatment choices; and indirect assessments of the assumption violations. Using smaller local areas to measure practice styles exploits more treatment variation and results in smaller standard errors. However, if treatment effects are heterogeneous, the use of smaller local areas may increase the risk that local practice style measures are dominated by differences in average treatment effectiveness across areas and bias results toward greater effectiveness. Local area practice style measures can be useful instruments in instrumental variable analysis, but the use of smaller local area sizes to generate greater treatment variation may result in treatment effect estimates that are biased toward higher effectiveness. Assessment of whether ecological bias can be mitigated by changing local area size requires the use of outside data sources. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of sample size on the reproducibility of voxel-based lesion-deficit mappings.

PubMed

Lorca-Puls, Diego L; Gajardo-Vidal, Andrea; White, Jitrachote; Seghier, Mohamed L; Leff, Alexander P; Green, David W; Crinion, Jenny T; Ludersdorfer, Philipp; Hope, Thomas M H; Bowman, Howard; Price, Cathy J

2018-07-01

This study investigated how sample size affects the reproducibility of findings from univariate voxel-based lesion-deficit analyses (e.g., voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping and voxel-based morphometry). Our effect of interest was the strength of the mapping between brain damage and speech articulation difficulties, as measured in terms of the proportion of variance explained. First, we identified a region of interest by searching on a voxel-by-voxel basis for brain areas where greater lesion load was associated with poorer speech articulation using a large sample of 360 right-handed English-speaking stroke survivors. We then randomly drew thousands of bootstrap samples from this data set that included either 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, or 360 patients. For each resample, we recorded effect size estimates and p values after conducting exactly the same lesion-deficit analysis within the previously identified region of interest and holding all procedures constant. The results show (1) how often small effect sizes in a heterogeneous population fail to be detected; (2) how effect size and its statistical significance varies with sample size; (3) how low-powered studies (due to small sample sizes) can greatly over-estimate as well as under-estimate effect sizes; and (4) how large sample sizes (N ≥ 90) can yield highly significant p values even when effect sizes are so small that they become trivial in practical terms. The implications of these findings for interpreting the results from univariate voxel-based lesion-deficit analyses are discussed. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Sample Size and Other Factors When Estimating Multilevel Logistic Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoeneberger, Jason A.

2016-01-01

The design of research studies utilizing binary multilevel models must necessarily incorporate knowledge of multiple factors, including estimation method, variance component size, or number of predictors, in addition to sample sizes. This Monte Carlo study examined the performance of random effect binary outcome multilevel models under varying…

Using e-mail recruitment and an online questionnaire to establish effect size: A worked example.

PubMed

Kirkby, Helen M; Wilson, Sue; Calvert, Melanie; Draper, Heather

2011-06-09

Sample size calculations require effect size estimations. Sometimes, effect size estimations and standard deviation may not be readily available, particularly if efficacy is unknown because the intervention is new or developing, or the trial targets a new population. In such cases, one way to estimate the effect size is to gather expert opinion. This paper reports the use of a simple strategy to gather expert opinion to estimate a suitable effect size to use in a sample size calculation. Researchers involved in the design and analysis of clinical trials were identified at the University of Birmingham and via the MRC Hubs for Trials Methodology Research. An email invited them to participate.An online questionnaire was developed using the free online tool 'Survey Monkey©'. The questionnaire described an intervention, an electronic participant information sheet (e-PIS), which may increase recruitment rates to a trial. Respondents were asked how much they would need to see recruitment rates increased by, based on 90%. 70%, 50% and 30% baseline rates, (in a hypothetical study) before they would consider using an e-PIS in their research.Analyses comprised simple descriptive statistics. The invitation to participate was sent to 122 people; 7 responded to say they were not involved in trial design and could not complete the questionnaire, 64 attempted it, 26 failed to complete it. Thirty-eight people completed the questionnaire and were included in the analysis (response rate 33%; 38/115). Of those who completed the questionnaire 44.7% (17/38) were at the academic grade of research fellow 26.3% (10/38) senior research fellow, and 28.9% (11/38) professor. Dependent upon the baseline recruitment rates presented in the questionnaire, participants wanted recruitment rate to increase from 6.9% to 28.9% before they would consider using the intervention. This paper has shown that in situations where effect size estimations cannot be collected from previous research, opinions from researchers and trialists can be quickly and easily collected by conducting a simple study using email recruitment and an online questionnaire. The results collected from the survey were successfully used in sample size calculations for a PhD research study protocol.

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, Erik; Zhao, Qing; Runge, Michael C.; Boomer, G Scott

2016-01-01

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail (Anas acuta) and mallard (Anas platyrhnchos) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

A Novel Method for Block Size Forensics Based on Morphological Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Weiqi; Huang, Jiwu; Qiu, Guoping

Passive forensics analysis aims to find out how multimedia data is acquired and processed without relying on pre-embedded or pre-registered information. Since most existing compression schemes for digital images are based on block processing, one of the fundamental steps for subsequent forensics analysis is to detect the presence of block artifacts and estimate the block size for a given image. In this paper, we propose a novel method for blind block size estimation. A 2×2 cross-differential filter is first applied to detect all possible block artifact boundaries, morphological operations are then used to remove the boundary effects caused by the edges of the actual image contents, and finally maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is employed to estimate the block size. The experimental results evaluated on over 1300 nature images show the effectiveness of our proposed method. Compared with existing gradient-based detection method, our method achieves over 39% accuracy improvement on average.

Effect Sizes for Growth-Modeling Analysis for Controlled Clinical Trials in the Same Metric as for Classical Analysis

PubMed Central

Feingold, Alan

2009-01-01

The use of growth-modeling analysis (GMA)--including Hierarchical Linear Models, Latent Growth Models, and General Estimating Equations--to evaluate interventions in psychology, psychiatry, and prevention science has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, an effect size associated with the difference between the trajectories of the intervention and control groups that captures the treatment effect is rarely reported. This article first reviews two classes of formulas for effect sizes associated with classical repeated-measures designs that use the standard deviation of either change scores or raw scores for the denominator. It then broadens the scope to subsume GMA, and demonstrates that the independent groups, within-subjects, pretest-posttest control-group, and GMA designs all estimate the same effect size when the standard deviation of raw scores is uniformly used. Finally, it is shown that the correct effect size for treatment efficacy in GMA--the difference between the estimated means of the two groups at end of study (determined from the coefficient for the slope difference and length of study) divided by the baseline standard deviation--is not reported in clinical trials. PMID:19271847

Generalized SAMPLE SIZE Determination Formulas for Investigating Contextual Effects by a Three-Level Random Intercept Model.

PubMed

Usami, Satoshi

2017-03-01

Behavioral and psychological researchers have shown strong interests in investigating contextual effects (i.e., the influences of combinations of individual- and group-level predictors on individual-level outcomes). The present research provides generalized formulas for determining the sample size needed in investigating contextual effects according to the desired level of statistical power as well as width of confidence interval. These formulas are derived within a three-level random intercept model that includes one predictor/contextual variable at each level to simultaneously cover various kinds of contextual effects that researchers can show interest. The relative influences of indices included in the formulas on the standard errors of contextual effects estimates are investigated with the aim of further simplifying sample size determination procedures. In addition, simulation studies are performed to investigate finite sample behavior of calculated statistical power, showing that estimated sample sizes based on derived formulas can be both positively and negatively biased due to complex effects of unreliability of contextual variables, multicollinearity, and violation of assumption regarding the known variances. Thus, it is advisable to compare estimated sample sizes under various specifications of indices and to evaluate its potential bias, as illustrated in the example.

Blinded sample size re-estimation in three-arm trials with 'gold standard' design.

PubMed

Mütze, Tobias; Friede, Tim

2017-10-15

In this article, we study blinded sample size re-estimation in the 'gold standard' design with internal pilot study for normally distributed outcomes. The 'gold standard' design is a three-arm clinical trial design that includes an active and a placebo control in addition to an experimental treatment. We focus on the absolute margin approach to hypothesis testing in three-arm trials at which the non-inferiority of the experimental treatment and the assay sensitivity are assessed by pairwise comparisons. We compare several blinded sample size re-estimation procedures in a simulation study assessing operating characteristics including power and type I error. We find that sample size re-estimation based on the popular one-sample variance estimator results in overpowered trials. Moreover, sample size re-estimation based on unbiased variance estimators such as the Xing-Ganju variance estimator results in underpowered trials, as it is expected because an overestimation of the variance and thus the sample size is in general required for the re-estimation procedure to eventually meet the target power. To overcome this problem, we propose an inflation factor for the sample size re-estimation with the Xing-Ganju variance estimator and show that this approach results in adequately powered trials. Because of favorable features of the Xing-Ganju variance estimator such as unbiasedness and a distribution independent of the group means, the inflation factor does not depend on the nuisance parameter and, therefore, can be calculated prior to a trial. Moreover, we prove that the sample size re-estimation based on the Xing-Ganju variance estimator does not bias the effect estimate. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Targeted On-Demand Team Performance App Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

from three sites; 6) Preliminary analysis indicates larger than estimate effect size and study is sufficiently powered for generalizable outcomes...statistical analyses, and examine any resulting qualitative data for trends or connections to statistical outcomes. On Schedule 21 Predictive...Preliminary analysis indicates larger than estimate effect size and study is sufficiently powered for generalizable outcomes.  What opportunities for

Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: There goes the neighborhood

Treesearch

M. C. Neel; K. McKelvey; N. Ryman; M. W. Lloyd; R. Short Bull; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; R. S. Waples

2013-01-01

Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating...

The effects of sample size on population genomic analyses--implications for the tests of neutrality.

PubMed

Subramanian, Sankar

2016-02-20

One of the fundamental measures of molecular genetic variation is the Watterson's estimator (θ), which is based on the number of segregating sites. The estimation of θ is unbiased only under neutrality and constant population growth. It is well known that the estimation of θ is biased when these assumptions are violated. However, the effects of sample size in modulating the bias was not well appreciated. We examined this issue in detail based on large-scale exome data and robust simulations. Our investigation revealed that sample size appreciably influences θ estimation and this effect was much higher for constrained genomic regions than that of neutral regions. For instance, θ estimated for synonymous sites using 512 human exomes was 1.9 times higher than that obtained using 16 exomes. However, this difference was 2.5 times for the nonsynonymous sites of the same data. We observed a positive correlation between the rate of increase in θ estimates (with respect to the sample size) and the magnitude of selection pressure. For example, θ estimated for the nonsynonymous sites of highly constrained genes (dN/dS < 0.1) using 512 exomes was 3.6 times higher than that estimated using 16 exomes. In contrast this difference was only 2 times for the less constrained genes (dN/dS > 0.9). The results of this study reveal the extent of underestimation owing to small sample sizes and thus emphasize the importance of sample size in estimating a number of population genomic parameters. Our results have serious implications for neutrality tests such as Tajima D, Fu-Li D and those based on the McDonald and Kreitman test: Neutrality Index and the fraction of adaptive substitutions. For instance, use of 16 exomes produced 2.4 times higher proportion of adaptive substitutions compared to that obtained using 512 exomes (24% vs 10 %).

Evaluating the Impact of Guessing and Its Interactions With Other Test Characteristics on Confidence Interval Procedures for Coefficient Alpha

PubMed Central

Paek, Insu

2015-01-01

The effect of guessing on the point estimate of coefficient alpha has been studied in the literature, but the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on the interval estimators for coefficient alpha has not been fully investigated. This study examined the impact of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics on four confidence interval (CI) procedures for coefficient alpha in terms of coverage rate (CR), length, and the degree of asymmetry of CI estimates. In addition, interval estimates of coefficient alpha when data follow the essentially tau-equivalent condition were investigated as a supplement to the case of dichotomous data with examinee guessing. For dichotomous data with guessing, the results did not reveal salient negative effects of guessing and its interactions with other test characteristics (sample size, test length, coefficient alpha levels) on CR and the degree of asymmetry, but the effect of guessing was salient as a main effect and an interaction effect with sample size on the length of the CI estimates, making longer CI estimates as guessing increases, especially when combined with a small sample size. Other important effects (e.g., CI procedures on CR) are also discussed. PMID:29795863

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

PubMed

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

A Virtual Reality Full Body Illusion Improves Body Image Disturbance in Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Keizer, Anouk; van Elburg, Annemarie; Helms, Rossa; Dijkerman, H Chris

2016-01-01

Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) have a persistent distorted experience of the size of their body. Previously we found that the Rubber Hand Illusion improves hand size estimation in this group. Here we investigated whether a Full Body Illusion (FBI) affects body size estimation of body parts more emotionally salient than the hand. In the FBI, analogue to the RHI, participants experience ownership over an entire virtual body in VR after synchronous visuo-tactile stimulation of the actual and virtual body. We asked participants to estimate their body size (shoulders, abdomen, hips) before the FBI was induced, directly after induction and at ~2 hour 45 minutes follow-up. The results showed that AN patients (N = 30) decrease the overestimation of their shoulders, abdomen and hips directly after the FBI was induced. This effect was strongest for estimates of circumference, and also observed in the asynchronous control condition of the illusion. Moreover, at follow-up, the improvements in body size estimation could still be observed in the AN group. Notably, the HC group (N = 29) also showed changes in body size estimation after the FBI, but the effect showed a different pattern than that of the AN group. The results lead us to conclude that the disturbed experience of body size in AN is flexible and can be changed, even for highly emotional body parts. As such this study offers novel starting points from which new interventions for body image disturbance in AN can be developed.

cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

PubMed

Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

2016-07-01

Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of sample size on KERNEL home range estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seaman, D.E.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Kernohan, Brian J.; Brundige, Gary C.; Raedeke, Kenneth J.; Gitzen, Robert A.

1999-01-01

Kernel methods for estimating home range are being used increasingly in wildlife research, but the effect of sample size on their accuracy is not known. We used computer simulations of 10-200 points/home range and compared accuracy of home range estimates produced by fixed and adaptive kernels with the reference (REF) and least-squares cross-validation (LSCV) methods for determining the amount of smoothing. Simulated home ranges varied from simple to complex shapes created by mixing bivariate normal distributions. We used the size of the 95% home range area and the relative mean squared error of the surface fit to assess the accuracy of the kernel home range estimates. For both measures, the bias and variance approached an asymptote at about 50 observations/home range. The fixed kernel with smoothing selected by LSCV provided the least-biased estimates of the 95% home range area. All kernel methods produced similar surface fit for most simulations, but the fixed kernel with LSCV had the lowest frequency and magnitude of very poor estimates. We reviewed 101 papers published in The Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) between 1980 and 1997 that estimated animal home ranges. A minority of these papers used nonparametric utilization distribution (UD) estimators, and most did not adequately report sample sizes. We recommend that home range studies using kernel estimates use LSCV to determine the amount of smoothing, obtain a minimum of 30 observations per animal (but preferably a?Y50), and report sample sizes in published results.

Class Size Effects on Student Achievement: Heterogeneity across Abilities and Fields

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Paola, Maria; Ponzo, Michela; Scoppa, Vincenzo

2013-01-01

In this paper, we analyze class size effects on college students exploiting data from a project offering special remedial courses in mathematics and language skills to freshmen enrolled at an Italian medium-sized public university. To estimate the effects of class size, we exploit the fact that students and teachers are virtually randomly assigned…

Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

PubMed Central

Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

2013-01-01

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect abundance trends. PMID:23755197

The Effective Dynamic Ranges for Glaucomatous Visual Field Progression With Standard Automated Perimetry and Stimulus Sizes III and V.

PubMed

Wall, Michael; Zamba, Gideon K D; Artes, Paul H

2018-01-01

It has been shown that threshold estimates below approximately 20 dB have little effect on the ability to detect visual field progression in glaucoma. We aimed to compare stimulus size V to stimulus size III, in areas of visual damage, to confirm these findings by using (1) a different dataset, (2) different techniques of progression analysis, and (3) an analysis to evaluate the effect of censoring on mean deviation (MD). In the Iowa Variability in Perimetry Study, 120 glaucoma subjects were tested every 6 months for 4 years with size III SITA Standard and size V Full Threshold. Progression was determined with three complementary techniques: pointwise linear regression (PLR), permutation of PLR, and linear regression of the MD index. All analyses were repeated on "censored'' datasets in which threshold estimates below a given criterion value were set to equal the criterion value. Our analyses confirmed previous observations that threshold estimates below 20 dB contribute much less to visual field progression than estimates above this range. These findings were broadly similar with stimulus sizes III and V. Censoring of threshold values < 20 dB has relatively little impact on the rates of visual field progression in patients with mild to moderate glaucoma. Size V, which has lower retest variability, performs at least as well as size III for longitudinal glaucoma progression analysis and appears to have a larger useful dynamic range owing to the upper sensitivity limit being higher.

The effects of delay duration on visual working memory for orientation.

PubMed

Shin, Hongsup; Zou, Qijia; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-12-01

We used a delayed-estimation paradigm to characterize the joint effects of set size (one, two, four, or six) and delay duration (1, 2, 3, or 6 s) on visual working memory for orientation. We conducted two experiments: one with delay durations blocked, another with delay durations interleaved. As dependent variables, we examined four model-free metrics of dispersion as well as precision estimates in four simple models. We tested for effects of delay time using analyses of variance, linear regressions, and nested model comparisons. We found significant effects of set size and delay duration on both model-free and model-based measures of dispersion. However, the effect of delay duration was much weaker than that of set size, dependent on the analysis method, and apparent in only a minority of subjects. The highest forgetting slope found in either experiment at any set size was a modest 1.14°/s. As secondary results, we found a low rate of nontarget reports, and significant estimation biases towards oblique orientations (but no dependence of their magnitude on either set size or delay duration). Relative stability of working memory even at higher set sizes is consistent with earlier results for motion direction and spatial frequency. We compare with a recent study that performed a very similar experiment.

Comparing different stimulus configurations for population receptive field mapping in human fMRI

PubMed Central

Alvarez, Ivan; de Haas, Benjamin; Clark, Chris A.; Rees, Geraint; Schwarzkopf, D. Samuel

2015-01-01

Population receptive field (pRF) mapping is a widely used approach to measuring aggregate human visual receptive field properties by recording non-invasive signals using functional MRI. Despite growing interest, no study to date has systematically investigated the effects of different stimulus configurations on pRF estimates from human visual cortex. Here we compared the effects of three different stimulus configurations on a model-based approach to pRF estimation: size-invariant bars and eccentricity-scaled bars defined in Cartesian coordinates and traveling along the cardinal axes, and a novel simultaneous “wedge and ring” stimulus defined in polar coordinates, systematically covering polar and eccentricity axes. We found that the presence or absence of eccentricity scaling had a significant effect on goodness of fit and pRF size estimates. Further, variability in pRF size estimates was directly influenced by stimulus configuration, particularly for higher visual areas including V5/MT+. Finally, we compared eccentricity estimation between phase-encoded and model-based pRF approaches. We observed a tendency for more peripheral eccentricity estimates using phase-encoded methods, independent of stimulus size. We conclude that both eccentricity scaling and polar rather than Cartesian stimulus configuration are important considerations for optimal experimental design in pRF mapping. While all stimulus configurations produce adequate estimates, simultaneous wedge and ring stimulation produced higher fit reliability, with a significant advantage in reduced acquisition time. PMID:25750620

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

PubMed

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

An objective Bayesian analysis of a crossover design via model selection and model averaging.

PubMed

Li, Dandan; Sivaganesan, Siva

2016-11-10

Inference about the treatment effect in a crossover design has received much attention over time owing to the uncertainty in the existence of the carryover effect and its impact on the estimation of the treatment effect. Adding to this uncertainty is that the existence of the carryover effect and its size may depend on the presence of the treatment effect and its size. We consider estimation and testing hypothesis about the treatment effect in a two-period crossover design, assuming normally distributed response variable, and use an objective Bayesian approach to test the hypothesis about the treatment effect and to estimate its size when it exists while accounting for the uncertainty about the presence of the carryover effect as well as the treatment and period effects. We evaluate and compare the performance of the proposed approach with a standard frequentist approach using simulated data, and real data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Intra-class correlation estimates for assessment of vitamin A intake in children.

PubMed

Agarwal, Girdhar G; Awasthi, Shally; Walter, Stephen D

2005-03-01

In many community-based surveys, multi-level sampling is inherent in the design. In the design of these studies, especially to calculate the appropriate sample size, investigators need good estimates of intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), along with the cluster size, to adjust for variation inflation due to clustering at each level. The present study used data on the assessment of clinical vitamin A deficiency and intake of vitamin A-rich food in children in a district in India. For the survey, 16 households were sampled from 200 villages nested within eight randomly-selected blocks of the district. ICCs and components of variances were estimated from a three-level hierarchical random effects analysis of variance model. Estimates of ICCs and variance components were obtained at village and block levels. Between-cluster variation was evident at each level of clustering. In these estimates, ICCs were inversely related to cluster size, but the design effect could be substantial for large clusters. At the block level, most ICC estimates were below 0.07. At the village level, many ICC estimates ranged from 0.014 to 0.45. These estimates may provide useful information for the design of epidemiological studies in which the sampled (or allocated) units range in size from households to large administrative zones.

Quantifying and Mitigating the Effect of Preferential Sampling on Phylodynamic Inference

PubMed Central

Karcher, Michael D.; Palacios, Julia A.; Bedford, Trevor; Suchard, Marc A.; Minin, Vladimir N.

2016-01-01

Phylodynamics seeks to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. One way to accomplish this task formulates an observed sequence data likelihood exploiting a coalescent model for the sampled individuals’ genealogy and then integrating over all possible genealogies via Monte Carlo or, less efficiently, by conditioning on one genealogy estimated from the sequence data. However, when analyzing sequences sampled serially through time, current methods implicitly assume either that sampling times are fixed deterministically by the data collection protocol or that their distribution does not depend on the size of the population. Through simulation, we first show that, when sampling times do probabilistically depend on effective population size, estimation methods may be systematically biased. To correct for this deficiency, we propose a new model that explicitly accounts for preferential sampling by modeling the sampling times as an inhomogeneous Poisson process dependent on effective population size. We demonstrate that in the presence of preferential sampling our new model not only reduces bias, but also improves estimation precision. Finally, we compare the performance of the currently used phylodynamic methods with our proposed model through clinically-relevant, seasonal human influenza examples. PMID:26938243

Distribution of the two-sample t-test statistic following blinded sample size re-estimation.

PubMed

Lu, Kaifeng

2016-05-01

We consider the blinded sample size re-estimation based on the simple one-sample variance estimator at an interim analysis. We characterize the exact distribution of the standard two-sample t-test statistic at the final analysis. We describe a simulation algorithm for the evaluation of the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at given treatment effect. We compare the blinded sample size re-estimation method with two unblinded methods with respect to the empirical type I error, the empirical power, and the empirical distribution of the standard deviation estimator and final sample size. We characterize the type I error inflation across the range of standardized non-inferiority margin for non-inferiority trials, and derive the adjusted significance level to ensure type I error control for given sample size of the internal pilot study. We show that the adjusted significance level increases as the sample size of the internal pilot study increases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

"PowerUp"!: A Tool for Calculating Minimum Detectable Effect Sizes and Minimum Required Sample Sizes for Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Design Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dong, Nianbo; Maynard, Rebecca

2013-01-01

This paper and the accompanying tool are intended to complement existing supports for conducting power analysis tools by offering a tool based on the framework of Minimum Detectable Effect Sizes (MDES) formulae that can be used in determining sample size requirements and in estimating minimum detectable effect sizes for a range of individual- and…

Improving accuracy of portion-size estimations through a stimulus equivalence paradigm.

PubMed

Hausman, Nicole L; Borrero, John C; Fisher, Alyssa; Kahng, SungWoo

2014-01-01

The prevalence of obesity continues to increase in the United States (Gordon-Larsen, The, & Adair, 2010). Obesity can be attributed, in part, to overconsumption of energy-dense foods. Given that overeating plays a role in the development of obesity, interventions that teach individuals to identify and consume appropriate portion sizes are warranted. Specifically, interventions that teach individuals to estimate portion sizes correctly without the use of aids may be critical to the success of nutrition education programs. The current study evaluated the use of a stimulus equivalence paradigm to teach 9 undergraduate students to estimate portion size accurately. Results suggested that the stimulus equivalence paradigm was effective in teaching participants to make accurate portion size estimations without aids, and improved accuracy was observed in maintenance sessions that were conducted 1 week after training. Furthermore, 5 of 7 participants estimated the target portion size of novel foods during extension sessions. These data extend existing research on teaching accurate portion-size estimations and may be applicable to populations who seek treatment (e.g., overweight or obese children and adults) to teach healthier eating habits. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2007-01-01

Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

The international food unit: a new measurement aid that can improve portion size estimation.

PubMed

Bucher, T; Weltert, M; Rollo, M E; Smith, S P; Jia, W; Collins, C E; Sun, M

2017-09-12

Portion size education tools, aids and interventions can be effective in helping prevent weight gain. However consumers have difficulties in estimating food portion sizes and are confused by inconsistencies in measurement units and terminologies currently used. Visual cues are an important mediator of portion size estimation, but standardized measurement units are required. In the current study, we present a new food volume estimation tool and test the ability of young adults to accurately quantify food volumes. The International Food Unit™ (IFU™) is a 4x4x4 cm cube (64cm 3 ), subdivided into eight 2 cm sub-cubes for estimating smaller food volumes. Compared with currently used measures such as cups and spoons, the IFU™ standardizes estimation of food volumes with metric measures. The IFU™ design is based on binary dimensional increments and the cubic shape facilitates portion size education and training, memory and recall, and computer processing which is binary in nature. The performance of the IFU™ was tested in a randomized between-subject experiment (n = 128 adults, 66 men) that estimated volumes of 17 foods using four methods; the IFU™ cube, a deformable modelling clay cube, a household measuring cup or no aid (weight estimation). Estimation errors were compared between groups using Kruskall-Wallis tests and post-hoc comparisons. Estimation errors differed significantly between groups (H(3) = 28.48, p < .001). The volume estimations were most accurate in the group using the IFU™ cube (Mdn = 18.9%, IQR = 50.2) and least accurate using the measuring cup (Mdn = 87.7%, IQR = 56.1). The modelling clay cube led to a median error of 44.8% (IQR = 41.9). Compared with the measuring cup, the estimation errors using the IFU™ were significantly smaller for 12 food portions and similar for 5 food portions. Weight estimation was associated with a median error of 23.5% (IQR = 79.8). The IFU™ improves volume estimation accuracy compared to other methods. The cubic shape was perceived as favourable, with subdivision and multiplication facilitating volume estimation. Further studies should investigate whether the IFU™ can facilitate portion size training and whether portion size education using the IFU™ is effective and sustainable without the aid. A 3-dimensional IFU™ could serve as a reference object for estimating food volume.

Computation of Effect Size for Moderating Effects of Categorical Variables in Multiple Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aguinis, Herman; Pierce, Charles A.

2006-01-01

The computation and reporting of effect size estimates is becoming the norm in many journals in psychology and related disciplines. Despite the increased importance of effect sizes, researchers may not report them or may report inaccurate values because of a lack of appropriate computational tools. For instance, Pierce, Block, and Aguinis (2004)…

A Virtual Reality Full Body Illusion Improves Body Image Disturbance in Anorexia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Keizer, Anouk; van Elburg, Annemarie; Helms, Rossa; Dijkerman, H. Chris

2016-01-01

Background Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) have a persistent distorted experience of the size of their body. Previously we found that the Rubber Hand Illusion improves hand size estimation in this group. Here we investigated whether a Full Body Illusion (FBI) affects body size estimation of body parts more emotionally salient than the hand. In the FBI, analogue to the RHI, participants experience ownership over an entire virtual body in VR after synchronous visuo-tactile stimulation of the actual and virtual body. Methods and Results We asked participants to estimate their body size (shoulders, abdomen, hips) before the FBI was induced, directly after induction and at ~2 hour 45 minutes follow-up. The results showed that AN patients (N = 30) decrease the overestimation of their shoulders, abdomen and hips directly after the FBI was induced. This effect was strongest for estimates of circumference, and also observed in the asynchronous control condition of the illusion. Moreover, at follow-up, the improvements in body size estimation could still be observed in the AN group. Notably, the HC group (N = 29) also showed changes in body size estimation after the FBI, but the effect showed a different pattern than that of the AN group. Conclusion The results lead us to conclude that the disturbed experience of body size in AN is flexible and can be changed, even for highly emotional body parts. As such this study offers novel starting points from which new interventions for body image disturbance in AN can be developed. PMID:27711234

When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

Treesearch

David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

2010-01-01

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

40 CFR Table F-5 to Subpart F of... - Estimated Mass Concentration Measurement of PM2.5 for Idealized “Typical” Coarse Aerosol Size...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 5 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Estimated Mass Concentration... 53—Estimated Mass Concentration Measurement of PM2.5 for Idealized “Typical” Coarse Aerosol Size Distribution Particle Aerodynamic Diameter (µm) Test Sampler Fractional Sampling Effectiveness Interval Mass...

40 CFR Table F-5 to Subpart F of... - Estimated Mass Concentration Measurement of PM2.5 for Idealized “Typical” Coarse Aerosol Size...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Estimated Mass Concentration... 53—Estimated Mass Concentration Measurement of PM2.5 for Idealized “Typical” Coarse Aerosol Size Distribution Particle Aerodynamic Diameter (µm) Test Sampler Fractional Sampling Effectiveness Interval Mass...

Fish movement and habitat use depends on water body size and shape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolnough, D.A.; Downing, J.A.; Newton, T.J.

2009-01-01

Home ranges are central to understanding habitat diversity, effects of fragmentation and conservation. The distance that an organism moves yields information on life history, genetics and interactions with other organisms. Present theory suggests that home range is set by body size of individuals. Here, we analyse estimates of home ranges in lakes and rivers to show that body size of fish and water body size and shape influence home range size. Using 71 studies including 66 fish species on five continents, we show that home range estimates increased with increasing water body size across water body shapes. This contrasts with past studies concluding that body size sets home range. We show that water body size was a consistently significant predictor of home range. In conjunction, body size and water body size can provide improved estimates of home range than just body size alone. As habitat patches are decreasing in size worldwide, our findings have implications for ecology, conservation and genetics of populations in fragmented ecosystems. ?? 2008 Blackwell Munksgaard.

Iterative Purification and Effect Size Use with Logistic Regression for Differential Item Functioning Detection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

French, Brian F.; Maller, Susan J.

2007-01-01

Two unresolved implementation issues with logistic regression (LR) for differential item functioning (DIF) detection include ability purification and effect size use. Purification is suggested to control inaccuracies in DIF detection as a result of DIF items in the ability estimate. Additionally, effect size use may be beneficial in controlling…

Comparing Single Case Design Overlap-Based Effect Size Metrics from Studies Examining Speech Generating Device Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Mo; Hyppa-Martin, Jolene K.; Reichle, Joe E.; Symons, Frank J.

2016-01-01

Meaningfully synthesizing single case experimental data from intervention studies comprised of individuals with low incidence conditions and generating effect size estimates remains challenging. Seven effect size metrics were compared for single case design (SCD) data focused on teaching speech generating device use to individuals with…

The Effective Dynamic Ranges for Glaucomatous Visual Field Progression With Standard Automated Perimetry and Stimulus Sizes III and V

PubMed Central

Zamba, Gideon K. D.; Artes, Paul H.

2018-01-01

Purpose It has been shown that threshold estimates below approximately 20 dB have little effect on the ability to detect visual field progression in glaucoma. We aimed to compare stimulus size V to stimulus size III, in areas of visual damage, to confirm these findings by using (1) a different dataset, (2) different techniques of progression analysis, and (3) an analysis to evaluate the effect of censoring on mean deviation (MD). Methods In the Iowa Variability in Perimetry Study, 120 glaucoma subjects were tested every 6 months for 4 years with size III SITA Standard and size V Full Threshold. Progression was determined with three complementary techniques: pointwise linear regression (PLR), permutation of PLR, and linear regression of the MD index. All analyses were repeated on “censored'' datasets in which threshold estimates below a given criterion value were set to equal the criterion value. Results Our analyses confirmed previous observations that threshold estimates below 20 dB contribute much less to visual field progression than estimates above this range. These findings were broadly similar with stimulus sizes III and V. Conclusions Censoring of threshold values < 20 dB has relatively little impact on the rates of visual field progression in patients with mild to moderate glaucoma. Size V, which has lower retest variability, performs at least as well as size III for longitudinal glaucoma progression analysis and appears to have a larger useful dynamic range owing to the upper sensitivity limit being higher. PMID:29356822

Predicted effect size of lisdexamfetamine treatment of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in European adults: Estimates based on indirect analysis using a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Fridman, M; Hodgkins, P S; Kahle, J S; Erder, M H

2015-06-01

There are few approved therapies for adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in Europe. Lisdexamfetamine (LDX) is an effective treatment for ADHD; however, no clinical trials examining the efficacy of LDX specifically in European adults have been conducted. Therefore, to estimate the efficacy of LDX in European adults we performed a meta-regression of existing clinical data. A systematic review identified US- and Europe-based randomized efficacy trials of LDX, atomoxetine (ATX), or osmotic-release oral system methylphenidate (OROS-MPH) in children/adolescents and adults. A meta-regression model was then fitted to the published/calculated effect sizes (Cohen's d) using medication, geographical location, and age group as predictors. The LDX effect size in European adults was extrapolated from the fitted model. Sensitivity analyses performed included using adult-only studies and adding studies with placebo designs other than a standard pill-placebo design. Twenty-two of 2832 identified articles met inclusion criteria. The model-estimated effect size of LDX for European adults was 1.070 (95% confidence interval: 0.738, 1.401), larger than the 0.8 threshold for large effect sizes. The overall model fit was adequate (80%) and stable in the sensitivity analyses. This model predicts that LDX may have a large treatment effect size in European adults with ADHD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Effective population sizes of a major vector of human diseases, Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Saarman, Norah P; Gloria-Soria, Andrea; Anderson, Eric C; Evans, Benjamin R; Pless, Evlyn; Cosme, Luciano V; Gonzalez-Acosta, Cassandra; Kamgang, Basile; Wesson, Dawn M; Powell, Jeffrey R

2017-12-01

The effective population size ( N e ) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics that determines the relative strength of selection and random genetic drift, the effect of migration, levels of inbreeding, and linkage disequilibrium. In many cases where it has been estimated in animals, N e is on the order of 10%-20% of the census size. In this study, we use 12 microsatellite markers and 14,888 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to empirically estimate N e in Aedes aegypti , the major vector of yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We used the method of temporal sampling to estimate N e on a global dataset made up of 46 samples of Ae. aegypti that included multiple time points from 17 widely distributed geographic localities. Our N e estimates for Ae. aegypti fell within a broad range (~25-3,000) and averaged between 400 and 600 across all localities and time points sampled. Adult census size (N c ) estimates for this species range between one and five thousand, so the N e / N c ratio is about the same as for most animals. These N e values are lower than estimates available for other insects and have important implications for the design of genetic control strategies to reduce the impact of this species of mosquito on human health.

Sample size and power considerations in network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Network meta-analysis is becoming increasingly popular for establishing comparative effectiveness among multiple interventions for the same disease. Network meta-analysis inherits all methodological challenges of standard pairwise meta-analysis, but with increased complexity due to the multitude of intervention comparisons. One issue that is now widely recognized in pairwise meta-analysis is the issue of sample size and statistical power. This issue, however, has so far only received little attention in network meta-analysis. To date, no approaches have been proposed for evaluating the adequacy of the sample size, and thus power, in a treatment network. Findings In this article, we develop easy-to-use flexible methods for estimating the ‘effective sample size’ in indirect comparison meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. The effective sample size for a particular treatment comparison can be interpreted as the number of patients in a pairwise meta-analysis that would provide the same degree and strength of evidence as that which is provided in the indirect comparison or network meta-analysis. We further develop methods for retrospectively estimating the statistical power for each comparison in a network meta-analysis. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methods for estimating effective sample size and statistical power using data from a network meta-analysis on interventions for smoking cessation including over 100 trials. Conclusion The proposed methods are easy to use and will be of high value to regulatory agencies and decision makers who must assess the strength of the evidence supporting comparative effectiveness estimates. PMID:22992327

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Explaining the effect of event valence on unrealistic optimism.

PubMed

Gold, Ron S; Brown, Mark G

2009-05-01

People typically exhibit 'unrealistic optimism' (UO): they believe they have a lower chance of experiencing negative events and a higher chance of experiencing positive events than does the average person. UO has been found to be greater for negative than positive events. This 'valence effect' has been explained in terms of motivational processes. An alternative explanation is provided by the 'numerosity model', which views the valence effect simply as a by-product of a tendency for likelihood estimates pertaining to the average member of a group to increase with the size of the group. Predictions made by the numerosity model were tested in two studies. In each, UO for a single event was assessed. In Study 1 (n = 115 students), valence was manipulated by framing the event either negatively or positively, and participants estimated their own likelihood and that of the average student at their university. In Study 2 (n = 139 students), valence was again manipulated and participants again estimated their own likelihood; additionally, group size was manipulated by having participants estimate the likelihood of the average student in a small, medium-sized, or large group. In each study, the valence effect was found, but was due to an effect on estimates of own likelihood, not the average person's likelihood. In Study 2, valence did not interact with group size. The findings contradict the numerosity model, but are in accord with the motivational explanation. Implications for health education are discussed.

Modelled Cost-Effectiveness of a Package Size Cap and a Kilojoule Reduction Intervention to Reduce Energy Intake from Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Australia.

PubMed

Crino, Michelle; Herrera, Ana Maria Mantilla; Ananthapavan, Jaithri; Wu, Jason H Y; Neal, Bruce; Lee, Yong Yi; Zheng, Miaobing; Lal, Anita; Sacks, Gary

2017-09-06

Interventions targeting portion size and energy density of food and beverage products have been identified as a promising approach for obesity prevention. This study modelled the potential cost-effectiveness of: a package size cap on single-serve sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) >375 mL ( package size cap ), and product reformulation to reduce energy content of packaged SSBs ( energy reduction ). The cost-effectiveness of each intervention was modelled for the 2010 Australia population using a multi-state life table Markov model with a lifetime time horizon. Long-term health outcomes were modelled from calculated changes in body mass index to their impact on Health-Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). Intervention costs were estimated from a limited societal perspective. Cost and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. Total intervention costs estimated in AUD 2010 were AUD 210 million. Both interventions resulted in reduced mean body weight ( package size cap : 0.12 kg; energy reduction : 0.23 kg); and HALYs gained ( package size cap : 73,883; energy reduction : 144,621). Cost offsets were estimated at AUD 750.8 million ( package size cap ) and AUD 1.4 billion ( energy reduction ). Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that both interventions were "dominant", and likely to result in long term cost savings and health benefits. A package size cap and kJ reduction of SSBs are likely to offer excellent "value for money" as obesity prevention measures in Australia.

Modelled Cost-Effectiveness of a Package Size Cap and a Kilojoule Reduction Intervention to Reduce Energy Intake from Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Australia

PubMed Central

Mantilla Herrera, Ana Maria; Neal, Bruce; Zheng, Miaobing; Lal, Anita; Sacks, Gary

2017-01-01

Interventions targeting portion size and energy density of food and beverage products have been identified as a promising approach for obesity prevention. This study modelled the potential cost-effectiveness of: a package size cap on single-serve sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) >375 mL (package size cap), and product reformulation to reduce energy content of packaged SSBs (energy reduction). The cost-effectiveness of each intervention was modelled for the 2010 Australia population using a multi-state life table Markov model with a lifetime time horizon. Long-term health outcomes were modelled from calculated changes in body mass index to their impact on Health-Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). Intervention costs were estimated from a limited societal perspective. Cost and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. Total intervention costs estimated in AUD 2010 were AUD 210 million. Both interventions resulted in reduced mean body weight (package size cap: 0.12 kg; energy reduction: 0.23 kg); and HALYs gained (package size cap: 73,883; energy reduction: 144,621). Cost offsets were estimated at AUD 750.8 million (package size cap) and AUD 1.4 billion (energy reduction). Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that both interventions were “dominant”, and likely to result in long term cost savings and health benefits. A package size cap and kJ reduction of SSBs are likely to offer excellent “value for money” as obesity prevention measures in Australia. PMID:28878175

Indentation size effects in single crystal copper as revealed by synchrotron x-ray microdiffraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, G.; Budiman, A. S.; Nix, W. D.; Tamura, N.; Patel, J. R.

2008-08-01

For a Cu single crystal, we find that indentation hardness increases with decreasing indentation depth, a phenomenon widely observed before and called the indentation size effect (ISE). To understand the underlying mechanism, we measure the lattice rotations in indentations of different sizes using white beam x-ray microdiffraction (μXRD); the indentation-induced lattice rotations are directly measured by the streaking of x-ray Laue spots associated with the indentations. The magnitude of the lattice rotations is found to be independent of indentation size, which is consistent with the basic tenets of the ISE model. Using the μXRD data together with an ISE model, we can estimate the effective radius of the indentation plastic zone, and the estimate is consistent with the value predicted by a finite element analysis. Using these results, an estimate of the average dislocation densities within the plastic zones has been made; the findings are consistent with the ISE arising from a dependence of the dislocation density on the depth of indentation.

Sample Size Calculations for Precise Interval Estimation of the Eta-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shieh, Gwowen

2015-01-01

Analysis of variance is one of the most frequently used statistical analyses in the behavioral, educational, and social sciences, and special attention has been paid to the selection and use of an appropriate effect size measure of association in analysis of variance. This article presents the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation…

Effects of tree-to-tree variations on sap flux-based transpiration estimates in a forested watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kume, Tomonori; Tsuruta, Kenji; Komatsu, Hikaru; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Higashi, Naoko; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Otsuki, Kyoichi

2010-05-01

To estimate forest stand-scale water use, we assessed how sample sizes affect confidence of stand-scale transpiration (E) estimates calculated from sap flux (Fd) and sapwood area (AS_tree) measurements of individual trees. In a Japanese cypress plantation, we measured Fd and AS_tree in all trees (n = 58) within a 20 × 20 m study plot, which was divided into four 10 × 10 subplots. We calculated E from stand AS_tree (AS_stand) and mean stand Fd (JS) values. Using Monte Carlo analyses, we examined potential errors associated with sample sizes in E, AS_stand, and JS by using the original AS_tree and Fd data sets. Consequently, we defined optimal sample sizes of 10 and 15 for AS_stand and JS estimates, respectively, in the 20 × 20 m plot. Sample sizes greater than the optimal sample sizes did not decrease potential errors. The optimal sample sizes for JS changed according to plot size (e.g., 10 × 10 m and 10 × 20 m), while the optimal sample sizes for AS_stand did not. As well, the optimal sample sizes for JS did not change in different vapor pressure deficit conditions. In terms of E estimates, these results suggest that the tree-to-tree variations in Fd vary among different plots, and that plot size to capture tree-to-tree variations in Fd is an important factor. This study also discusses planning balanced sampling designs to extrapolate stand-scale estimates to catchment-scale estimates.

The Ecological Genetics of Introduced Populations of the Giant Toad BUFO MARINUS. II. Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Easteal, Simon

1985-01-01

The allele frequencies are described at ten polymorphic enzyme loci (of a total of 22 loci sampled) in 15 populations of the neotropical giant toad, Bufo marinus, introduced to Hawaii and Australia in the 1930s. The history of establishment of the ten populations is described and used as a framework for the analysis of allele frequency variances. The variances are used to determine the effective sizes of the populations. The estimates obtained (390 and 346) are reasonably precise, homogeneous between localities and much smaller than estimates of neighborhood size obtained previously using ecological methods. This discrepancy is discussed, and it is concluded that the estimates obtained here using genetic methods are the more reliable. PMID:3922852

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men through the Network Scale-Up Method in Japan

PubMed Central

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. Methods and Findings An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. Conclusions The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods. PMID:22563366

The Effects of Model Misspecification and Sample Size on LISREL Maximum Likelihood Estimates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baldwin, Beatrice

The robustness of LISREL computer program maximum likelihood estimates under specific conditions of model misspecification and sample size was examined. The population model used in this study contains one exogenous variable; three endogenous variables; and eight indicator variables, two for each latent variable. Conditions of model…

Robust variance estimation with dependent effect sizes: practical considerations including a software tutorial in Stata and spss.

PubMed

Tanner-Smith, Emily E; Tipton, Elizabeth

2014-03-01

Methodologists have recently proposed robust variance estimation as one way to handle dependent effect sizes in meta-analysis. Software macros for robust variance estimation in meta-analysis are currently available for Stata (StataCorp LP, College Station, TX, USA) and spss (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA), yet there is little guidance for authors regarding the practical application and implementation of those macros. This paper provides a brief tutorial on the implementation of the Stata and spss macros and discusses practical issues meta-analysts should consider when estimating meta-regression models with robust variance estimates. Two example databases are used in the tutorial to illustrate the use of meta-analysis with robust variance estimates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of Risk of Bias on the Effect Size of Meta-Analytic Estimates in Randomized Controlled Trials in Periodontology and Implant Dentistry.

PubMed

Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Wu, Yun-Chun; Scheidgen, Moritz; Tu, Yu-Kang

2015-01-01

Risk of bias (ROB) may threaten the internal validity of a clinical trial by distorting the magnitude of treatment effect estimates, although some conflicting information on this assumption exists. The objective of this study was evaluate the effect of ROB on the magnitude of treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in periodontology and implant dentistry. A search for Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs), including meta-analyses of RCTs published in periodontology and implant dentistry fields, was performed in the Cochrane Library in September 2014. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed by grouping RCTs with different levels of ROBs in three domains (sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment). To increase power and precision, only SRs with meta-analyses including at least 10 RCTs were included. Meta-regression was performed to investigate the association between ROB characteristics and the magnitudes of intervention effects in the meta-analyses. Of the 24 initially screened SRs, 21 SRs were excluded because they did not include at least 10 RCTs in the meta-analyses. Three SRs (two from periodontology field) generated information for conducting 27 meta-analyses. Meta-regression did not reveal significant differences in the relationship of the ROB level with the size of treatment effect estimates, although a trend for inflated estimates was observed in domains with unclear ROBs. In this sample of RCTs, high and (mainly) unclear risks of selection and detection biases did not seem to influence the size of treatment effect estimates, although several confounders might have influenced the strength of the association.

Using known map category marginal frequencies to improve estimates of thematic map accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Card, D. H.

1982-01-01

By means of two simple sampling plans suggested in the accuracy-assessment literature, it is shown how one can use knowledge of map-category relative sizes to improve estimates of various probabilities. The fact that maximum likelihood estimates of cell probabilities for the simple random sampling and map category-stratified sampling were identical has permitted a unified treatment of the contingency-table analysis. A rigorous analysis of the effect of sampling independently within map categories is made possible by results for the stratified case. It is noted that such matters as optimal sample size selection for the achievement of a desired level of precision in various estimators are irrelevant, since the estimators derived are valid irrespective of how sample sizes are chosen.

Size, skills, and suffrage: Motivated distortions in perceived formidability of political leaders

PubMed Central

Blaker, Nancy M.; Pollet, Thomas V.

2017-01-01

Research shows that perception of physical size and status are positively associated. The current study was developed to replicate and extend earlier research on height perceptions of political leaders, indicating that supporters perceive their leaders as taller than non-supporters do, and winners are perceived as taller after the elections, while losers are perceived as shorter after the elections (winner/loser effects). Individuals use greater height and strength as indications of greater physical formidability. We hypothesized that in-group leaders’ height and strength, but not weight, would be overestimated more compared to out-group leaders’, and that this status-size association is not only driven by dominance, but also by prestige. We also tested whether previously found gender effects in estimates were due to using one’s own height as an anchor, and we used an improved methodological approach by relying on multiple measurements of physical formidability and a within-subject design for testing winner/loser effects. The results of a two-part longitudinal study (self-selected sample via voting advice website; NWave1 = 2,011; NWave2 = 322) suggest that estimated physical formidability of political leaders is affected by motivated perception, as prestige was positively associated with estimated formidability, and in-group leaders were estimated more formidable than out-group leaders. We conclude that distortions in judged formidability related to social status are the result of motivated social perception in order to promote group functioning and leadership. Although we did not replicate a winner-effect (greater estimations of formidability after winning the elections), we did find some evidence for a loser-effect. Earlier suggestions that men make larger estimations than women because of their own larger body size are not supported. Implications for theory and future research are discussed. PMID:29267275

Reproducibility of preclinical animal research improves with heterogeneity of study samples

PubMed Central

Vogt, Lucile; Sena, Emily S.; Würbel, Hanno

2018-01-01

Single-laboratory studies conducted under highly standardized conditions are the gold standard in preclinical animal research. Using simulations based on 440 preclinical studies across 13 different interventions in animal models of stroke, myocardial infarction, and breast cancer, we compared the accuracy of effect size estimates between single-laboratory and multi-laboratory study designs. Single-laboratory studies generally failed to predict effect size accurately, and larger sample sizes rendered effect size estimates even less accurate. By contrast, multi-laboratory designs including as few as 2 to 4 laboratories increased coverage probability by up to 42 percentage points without a need for larger sample sizes. These findings demonstrate that within-study standardization is a major cause of poor reproducibility. More representative study samples are required to improve the external validity and reproducibility of preclinical animal research and to prevent wasting animals and resources for inconclusive research. PMID:29470495

TU-H-207A-08: Estimating Radiation Dose From Low-Dose Lung Cancer Screening CT Exams Using Tube Current Modulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hardy, A; Bostani, M; McMillan, K

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to estimate effective and lung doses from a low-dose lung cancer screening CT protocol using Tube Current Modulation (TCM) across patient models of different sizes. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to estimate effective and lung doses from a low-dose lung cancer screening protocol for a 64-slice CT (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare) that used TCM. Scanning parameters were from the AAPM protocols. Ten GSF voxelized patient models were used and had all radiosensitive organs identified to facilitate estimating both organ and effective doses. Predicted TCM schemes for each patient model were generatedmore » using a validated method wherein tissue attenuation characteristics and scanner limitations were used to determine the TCM output as a function of table position and source angle. The water equivalent diameter (WED) was determined by estimating the attenuation at the center of the scan volume for each patient model. Monte Carlo simulations were performed using the unique TCM scheme for each patient model. Lung doses were tallied and effective doses were estimated using ICRP 103 tissue weighting factors. Effective and lung dose values were normalized by scanspecific 32 cm CTDIvol values based upon the average tube current across the entire simulated scan. Absolute and normalized doses were reported as a function of WED for each patient. Results: For all ten patients modeled, the effective dose using TCM protocols was below 1.5 mSv. Smaller sized patient models experienced lower absolute doses compared to larger sized patients. Normalized effective and lung doses showed some dependence on patient size (R2 = 0.77 and 0.78, respectively). Conclusion: Effective doses for a low-dose lung screening protocol using TCM were below 1.5 mSv for all patient models used in this study. Institutional research agreement, Siemens Healthcare; Past recipient, research grant support, Siemens Healthcare; Consultant, Toshiba America Medical Systems; Consultant, Samsung Electronics.« less

Detecting spatial structures in throughfall data: The effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and variogram estimation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voss, Sebastian; Zimmermann, Beate; Zimmermann, Alexander

2016-09-01

In the last decades, an increasing number of studies analyzed spatial patterns in throughfall by means of variograms. The estimation of the variogram from sample data requires an appropriate sampling scheme: most importantly, a large sample and a layout of sampling locations that often has to serve both variogram estimation and geostatistical prediction. While some recommendations on these aspects exist, they focus on Gaussian data and high ratios of the variogram range to the extent of the study area. However, many hydrological data, and throughfall data in particular, do not follow a Gaussian distribution. In this study, we examined the effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and calculation method on variogram estimation of throughfall data. For our investigation, we first generated non-Gaussian random fields based on throughfall data with large outliers. Subsequently, we sampled the fields with three extents (plots with edge lengths of 25 m, 50 m, and 100 m), four common sampling designs (two grid-based layouts, transect and random sampling) and five sample sizes (50, 100, 150, 200, 400). We then estimated the variogram parameters by method-of-moments (non-robust and robust estimators) and residual maximum likelihood. Our key findings are threefold. First, the choice of the extent has a substantial influence on the estimation of the variogram. A comparatively small ratio of the extent to the correlation length is beneficial for variogram estimation. Second, a combination of a minimum sample size of 150, a design that ensures the sampling of small distances and variogram estimation by residual maximum likelihood offers a good compromise between accuracy and efficiency. Third, studies relying on method-of-moments based variogram estimation may have to employ at least 200 sampling points for reliable variogram estimates. These suggested sample sizes exceed the number recommended by studies dealing with Gaussian data by up to 100 %. Given that most previous throughfall studies relied on method-of-moments variogram estimation and sample sizes ≪200, currently available data are prone to large uncertainties.

Power and sample-size estimation for microbiome studies using pairwise distances and PERMANOVA.

PubMed

Kelly, Brendan J; Gross, Robert; Bittinger, Kyle; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Lewis, James D; Collman, Ronald G; Bushman, Frederic D; Li, Hongzhe

2015-08-01

The variation in community composition between microbiome samples, termed beta diversity, can be measured by pairwise distance based on either presence-absence or quantitative species abundance data. PERMANOVA, a permutation-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance to a matrix of pairwise distances, partitions within-group and between-group distances to permit assessment of the effect of an exposure or intervention (grouping factor) upon the sampled microbiome. Within-group distance and exposure/intervention effect size must be accurately modeled to estimate statistical power for a microbiome study that will be analyzed with pairwise distances and PERMANOVA. We present a framework for PERMANOVA power estimation tailored to marker-gene microbiome studies that will be analyzed by pairwise distances, which includes: (i) a novel method for distance matrix simulation that permits modeling of within-group pairwise distances according to pre-specified population parameters; (ii) a method to incorporate effects of different sizes within the simulated distance matrix; (iii) a simulation-based method for estimating PERMANOVA power from simulated distance matrices; and (iv) an R statistical software package that implements the above. Matrices of pairwise distances can be efficiently simulated to satisfy the triangle inequality and incorporate group-level effects, which are quantified by the adjusted coefficient of determination, omega-squared (ω2). From simulated distance matrices, available PERMANOVA power or necessary sample size can be estimated for a planned microbiome study. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of window size and shape on accuracy of subpixel centroid estimation of target images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, Sharon S.

1993-01-01

A new algorithm is presented for increasing the accuracy of subpixel centroid estimation of (nearly) point target images in cases where the signal-to-noise ratio is low and the signal amplitude and shape vary from frame to frame. In the algorithm, the centroid is calculated over a data window that is matched in width to the image distribution. Fourier analysis is used to explain the dependency of the centroid estimate on the size of the data window, and simulation and experimental results are presented which demonstrate the effects of window size for two different noise models. The effects of window shape were also investigated for uniform and Gaussian-shaped windows. The new algorithm was developed to improve the dynamic range of a close-range photogrammetric tracking system that provides feedback for control of a large gap magnetic suspension system (LGMSS).

A Generalized Least Squares Regression Approach for Computing Effect Sizes in Single-Case Research: Application Examples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maggin, Daniel M.; Swaminathan, Hariharan; Rogers, Helen J.; O'Keeffe, Breda V.; Sugai, George; Horner, Robert H.

2011-01-01

A new method for deriving effect sizes from single-case designs is proposed. The strategy is applicable to small-sample time-series data with autoregressive errors. The method uses Generalized Least Squares (GLS) to model the autocorrelation of the data and estimate regression parameters to produce an effect size that represents the magnitude of…

Time-Indexed Effect Size Metric for K-12 Reading and Math Education Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jaekyung; Finn, Jeremy; Liu, Xiaoyan

2011-01-01

Through a synthesis of test publisher norms and national longitudinal datasets, this study provides new national norms of academic growth in K-12 reading and math that can be used to reinterpret conventional effect sizes in time units. We propose d' a time-indexed effect size metric to estimate how long it would take for an "untreated"…

Accounting for missing data in the estimation of contemporary genetic effective population size (N(e) ).

PubMed

Peel, D; Waples, R S; Macbeth, G M; Do, C; Ovenden, J R

2013-03-01

Theoretical models are often applied to population genetic data sets without fully considering the effect of missing data. Researchers can deal with missing data by removing individuals that have failed to yield genotypes and/or by removing loci that have failed to yield allelic determinations, but despite their best efforts, most data sets still contain some missing data. As a consequence, realized sample size differs among loci, and this poses a problem for unbiased methods that must explicitly account for random sampling error. One commonly used solution for the calculation of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ) is to calculate the effective sample size as an unweighted mean or harmonic mean across loci. This is not ideal because it fails to account for the fact that loci with different numbers of alleles have different information content. Here we consider this problem for genetic estimators of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ). To evaluate bias and precision of several statistical approaches for dealing with missing data, we simulated populations with known N(e) and various degrees of missing data. Across all scenarios, one method of correcting for missing data (fixed-inverse variance-weighted harmonic mean) consistently performed the best for both single-sample and two-sample (temporal) methods of estimating N(e) and outperformed some methods currently in widespread use. The approach adopted here may be a starting point to adjust other population genetics methods that include per-locus sample size components. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

On the number of New World founders: a population genetic portrait of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Hey, Jody

2005-06-01

The founding of New World populations by Asian peoples is the focus of considerable archaeological and genetic research, and there persist important questions on when and how these events occurred. Genetic data offer great potential for the study of human population history, but there are significant challenges in discerning distinct demographic processes. A new method for the study of diverging populations was applied to questions on the founding and history of Amerind-speaking Native American populations. The model permits estimation of founding population sizes, changes in population size, time of population formation, and gene flow. Analyses of data from nine loci are consistent with the general portrait that has emerged from archaeological and other kinds of evidence. The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is fewer than 80 individuals, approximately 1% of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population. By adding a splitting parameter to population divergence models it becomes possible to develop detailed portraits of human demographic history. Analyses of Asian and New World data support a model of a recent founding of the New World by a population of quite small effective size.

Spatially-explicit estimation of Wright's neighborhood size in continuous populations

Treesearch

Andrew J. Shirk; Samuel A. Cushman

2014-01-01

Effective population size (Ne) is an important parameter in conservation genetics because it quantifies a population's capacity to resist loss of genetic diversity due to inbreeding and drift. The classical approach to estimate Ne from genetic data involves grouping sampled individuals into discretely defined subpopulations assumed to be panmictic. Importantly,...

Selection of the effect size for sample size determination for a continuous response in a superiority clinical trial using a hybrid classical and Bayesian procedure.

PubMed

Ciarleglio, Maria M; Arendt, Christopher D; Peduzzi, Peter N

2016-06-01

When designing studies that have a continuous outcome as the primary endpoint, the hypothesized effect size ([Formula: see text]), that is, the hypothesized difference in means ([Formula: see text]) relative to the assumed variability of the endpoint ([Formula: see text]), plays an important role in sample size and power calculations. Point estimates for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are often calculated using historical data. However, the uncertainty in these estimates is rarely addressed. This article presents a hybrid classical and Bayesian procedure that formally integrates prior information on the distributions of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] into the study's power calculation. Conditional expected power, which averages the traditional power curve using the prior distributions of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] as the averaging weight, is used, and the value of [Formula: see text] is found that equates the prespecified frequentist power ([Formula: see text]) and the conditional expected power of the trial. This hypothesized effect size is then used in traditional sample size calculations when determining sample size for the study. The value of [Formula: see text] found using this method may be expressed as a function of the prior means of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and their prior standard deviations, [Formula: see text]. We show that the "naïve" estimate of the effect size, that is, the ratio of prior means, should be down-weighted to account for the variability in the parameters. An example is presented for designing a placebo-controlled clinical trial testing the antidepressant effect of alprazolam as monotherapy for major depression. Through this method, we are able to formally integrate prior information on the uncertainty and variability of both the treatment effect and the common standard deviation into the design of the study while maintaining a frequentist framework for the final analysis. Solving for the effect size which the study has a high probability of correctly detecting based on the available prior information on the difference [Formula: see text] and the standard deviation [Formula: see text] provides a valuable, substantiated estimate that can form the basis for discussion about the study's feasibility during the design phase. © The Author(s) 2016.

The Effect Size Statistic: Overview of Various Choices.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahadevan, Lakshmi

Over the years, methodologists have been recommending that researchers use magnitude of effect estimates in result interpretation to highlight the distinction between statistical and practical significance (cf. R. Kirk, 1996). A magnitude of effect statistic (i.e., effect size) tells to what degree the dependent variable can be controlled,…

A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

2015-01-01

In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…

Detecting spatial structures in throughfall data: the effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and variogram estimation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voss, Sebastian; Zimmermann, Beate; Zimmermann, Alexander

2016-04-01

In the last three decades, an increasing number of studies analyzed spatial patterns in throughfall to investigate the consequences of rainfall redistribution for biogeochemical and hydrological processes in forests. In the majority of cases, variograms were used to characterize the spatial properties of the throughfall data. The estimation of the variogram from sample data requires an appropriate sampling scheme: most importantly, a large sample and an appropriate layout of sampling locations that often has to serve both variogram estimation and geostatistical prediction. While some recommendations on these aspects exist, they focus on Gaussian data and high ratios of the variogram range to the extent of the study area. However, many hydrological data, and throughfall data in particular, do not follow a Gaussian distribution. In this study, we examined the effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and calculation methods on variogram estimation of throughfall data. For our investigation, we first generated non-Gaussian random fields based on throughfall data with heavy outliers. Subsequently, we sampled the fields with three extents (plots with edge lengths of 25 m, 50 m, and 100 m), four common sampling designs (two grid-based layouts, transect and random sampling), and five sample sizes (50, 100, 150, 200, 400). We then estimated the variogram parameters by method-of-moments and residual maximum likelihood. Our key findings are threefold. First, the choice of the extent has a substantial influence on the estimation of the variogram. A comparatively small ratio of the extent to the correlation length is beneficial for variogram estimation. Second, a combination of a minimum sample size of 150, a design that ensures the sampling of small distances and variogram estimation by residual maximum likelihood offers a good compromise between accuracy and efficiency. Third, studies relying on method-of-moments based variogram estimation may have to employ at least 200 sampling points for reliable variogram estimates. These suggested sample sizes exceed the numbers recommended by studies dealing with Gaussian data by up to 100 %. Given that most previous throughfall studies relied on method-of-moments variogram estimation and sample sizes << 200, our current knowledge about throughfall spatial variability stands on shaky ground.

Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Farmer, Chris

2012-01-01

Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

New Evidence of the Causal Effect of Family Size on Child Quality in a Developing Country

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ponczek, Vladimir; Souza, Andre Portela

2012-01-01

This paper presents new evidence of the causal effect of family size on child quality in a developing-country context. We estimate the impact of family size on child labor and educational outcomes among Brazilian children and young adults by exploring the exogenous variation of family size driven by the presence of twins in the family. Using the…

Efficiencies for the statistics of size discrimination.

PubMed

Solomon, Joshua A; Morgan, Michael; Chubb, Charles

2011-10-19

Different laboratories have achieved a consensus regarding how well human observers can estimate the average orientation in a set of N objects. Such estimates are not only limited by visual noise, which perturbs the visual signal of each object's orientation, they are also inefficient: Observers effectively use only √N objects in their estimates (e.g., S. C. Dakin, 2001; J. A. Solomon, 2010). More controversial is the efficiency with which observers can estimate the average size in an array of circles (e.g., D. Ariely, 2001, 2008; S. C. Chong, S. J. Joo, T.-A. Emmanouil, & A. Treisman, 2008; K. Myczek & D. J. Simons, 2008). Of course, there are some important differences between orientation and size; nonetheless, it seemed sensible to compare the two types of estimate against the same ideal observer. Indeed, quantitative evaluation of statistical efficiency requires this sort of comparison (R. A. Fisher, 1925). Our first step was to measure the noise that limits size estimates when only two circles are compared. Our results (Weber fractions between 0.07 and 0.14 were necessary for 84% correct 2AFC performance) are consistent with the visual system adding the same amount of Gaussian noise to all logarithmically transduced circle diameters. We exaggerated this visual noise by randomly varying the diameters in (uncrowded) arrays of 1, 2, 4, and 8 circles and measured its effect on discrimination between mean sizes. Efficiencies inferred from all four observers significantly exceed 25% and, in two cases, approach 100%. More consistent are our measurements of just-noticeable differences in size variance. These latter results suggest between 62 and 75% efficiency for variance discriminations. Although our observers were no more efficient comparing size variances than they were at comparing mean sizes, they were significantly more precise. In other words, our results contain evidence for a non-negligible source of late noise that limits mean discriminations but not variance discriminations.

Effective population size and the genetic consequences of commercial whaling on the humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) from Southwestern Atlantic Ocean

PubMed Central

Cypriano-Souza, Ana Lúcia; da Silva, Tiago Ferraz; Engel, Márcia H.; Bonatto, Sandro L.

2018-01-01

Abstract Genotypes of 10 microsatellite loci of 420 humpback whales from the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean population were used to estimate for the first time its contemporary effective (N e) and census (N c) population sizes and to test the genetic effect of commercial whaling. The results are in agreement with our previous studies that found high genetic diversity for this breeding population. Using an approximate Bayesian computation approach, the scenario of constant N e was significantly supported over scenarios with moderate to strong size changes during the commercial whaling period. The previous generation N c (N e multiplied by 3.6), which should corresponds to the years between around 1980 and 1990, was estimated between ~2,600 and 6,800 whales (point estimate ~4,000), and is broadly compatible with the recent abundance surveys extrapolated to the past using a growth rate of 7.4% per annum. The long-term N c in the constant scenario (point estimate ~15,000) was broadly compatible (considering the confidence interval) with pre-whaling catch records estimates (point estimate ~25,000). Overall, our results shown that the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean humpback whale population is genetically very diverse and resisted well to the strong population reduction during commercial whaling. PMID:29668011

Effective population size and the genetic consequences of commercial whaling on the humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) from Southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Cypriano-Souza, Ana Lúcia; da Silva, Tiago Ferraz; Engel, Márcia H; Bonatto, Sandro L

2018-01-01

Genotypes of 10 microsatellite loci of 420 humpback whales from the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean population were used to estimate for the first time its contemporary effective (Ne) and census (Nc) population sizes and to test the genetic effect of commercial whaling. The results are in agreement with our previous studies that found high genetic diversity for this breeding population. Using an approximate Bayesian computation approach, the scenario of constant Ne was significantly supported over scenarios with moderate to strong size changes during the commercial whaling period. The previous generation Nc (Ne multiplied by 3.6), which should corresponds to the years between around 1980 and 1990, was estimated between ~2,600 and 6,800 whales (point estimate ~4,000), and is broadly compatible with the recent abundance surveys extrapolated to the past using a growth rate of 7.4% per annum. The long-term Nc in the constant scenario (point estimate ~15,000) was broadly compatible (considering the confidence interval) with pre-whaling catch records estimates (point estimate ~25,000). Overall, our results shown that the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean humpback whale population is genetically very diverse and resisted well to the strong population reduction during commercial whaling.

Effect of Risk of Bias on the Effect Size of Meta-Analytic Estimates in Randomized Controlled Trials in Periodontology and Implant Dentistry

PubMed Central

Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Wu, Yun-Chun; Scheidgen, Moritz; Tu, Yu-Kang

2015-01-01

Background Risk of bias (ROB) may threaten the internal validity of a clinical trial by distorting the magnitude of treatment effect estimates, although some conflicting information on this assumption exists. Objective The objective of this study was evaluate the effect of ROB on the magnitude of treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in periodontology and implant dentistry. Methods A search for Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs), including meta-analyses of RCTs published in periodontology and implant dentistry fields, was performed in the Cochrane Library in September 2014. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed by grouping RCTs with different levels of ROBs in three domains (sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment). To increase power and precision, only SRs with meta-analyses including at least 10 RCTs were included. Meta-regression was performed to investigate the association between ROB characteristics and the magnitudes of intervention effects in the meta-analyses. Results Of the 24 initially screened SRs, 21 SRs were excluded because they did not include at least 10 RCTs in the meta-analyses. Three SRs (two from periodontology field) generated information for conducting 27 meta-analyses. Meta-regression did not reveal significant differences in the relationship of the ROB level with the size of treatment effect estimates, although a trend for inflated estimates was observed in domains with unclear ROBs. Conclusion In this sample of RCTs, high and (mainly) unclear risks of selection and detection biases did not seem to influence the size of treatment effect estimates, although several confounders might have influenced the strength of the association. PMID:26422698

A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution.

PubMed

Harrison, Xavier A

2015-01-01

Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE) to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (<5 levels), I investigate the performance of both model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non-Beta-Binomial data. Finally, both OLRE and Beta-Binomial models performed poorly when models contained <5 levels of the random intercept term, especially for estimating variance components, and this effect appeared independent of total sample size. These results suggest that OLRE are a useful tool for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data, but that they do not perform well in all circumstances and researchers should take care to verify the robustness of parameter estimates of OLRE models.

Effective Population Size, Genetic Variation, and Their Relevance for Conservation: The Bighorn Sheep in Tiburon Island and Comparisons with Managed Artiodactyls

PubMed Central

Gasca-Pineda, Jaime; Cassaigne, Ivonne; Alonso, Rogelio A.; Eguiarte, Luis E.

2013-01-01

The amount of genetic diversity in a finite biological population mostly depends on the interactions among evolutionary forces and the effective population size (N e) as well as the time since population establishment. Because the N e estimation helps to explore population demographic history, and allows one to predict the behavior of genetic diversity through time, N e is a key parameter for the genetic management of small and isolated populations. Here, we explored an N e-based approach using a bighorn sheep population on Tiburon Island, Mexico (TI) as a model. We estimated the current (N crnt) and ancestral stable (N stbl) inbreeding effective population sizes as well as summary statistics to assess genetic diversity and the demographic scenarios that could explain such diversity. Then, we evaluated the feasibility of using TI as a source population for reintroduction programs. We also included data from other bighorn sheep and artiodactyl populations in the analysis to compare their inbreeding effective size estimates. The TI population showed high levels of genetic diversity with respect to other managed populations. However, our analysis suggested that TI has been under a genetic bottleneck, indicating that using individuals from this population as the only source for reintroduction could lead to a severe genetic diversity reduction. Analyses of the published data did not show a strict correlation between H E and N crnt estimates. Moreover, we detected that ancient anthropogenic and climatic pressures affected all studied populations. We conclude that the estimation of N crnt and N stbl are informative genetic diversity estimators and should be used in addition to summary statistics for conservation and population management planning. PMID:24147115

The clash of mechanical and electrical size-effects in ZnO nanowires and a double power law approach to elastic strain engineering of piezoelectric and piezotronic devices.

PubMed

Rinaldi, Antonio; Araneo, Rodolfo; Celozzi, Salvatore; Pea, Marialilia; Notargiacomo, Andrea

2014-09-10

The piezoelectric performance of ultra-strength ZnO nanowires (NWs) depends on the subtle interplay between electrical and mechanical size-effects. "Size-dependent" modeling of compressed NWs illustrates why experimentally observed mechanical stiffening can indeed collide with electrical size-effects when the size shrinks, thereby lowering the actual piezoelectric function from bulk estimates. "Smaller" is not necessarily "better" in nanotechnology. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

On the Post Hoc Power in Testing Mean Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Maxwell, Scott

2005-01-01

Retrospective or post hoc power analysis is recommended by reviewers and editors of many journals. Little literature has been found that gave a serious study of the post hoc power. When the sample size is large, the observed effect size is a good estimator of the true power. This article studies whether such a power estimator provides valuable…

Evaluation of tropically-adapted straightbred and crossbred beef cattle: Heifer age and size at first conception and characteristics of their first calves

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objectives of this work were to estimate genetic effects for age and size at estimated time of first conception, and temperament in straightbred and crossbred heifers (n = 554) produced from Romosinuano, Brahman, and Angus cattle, and to evaluate first parturition performance of heifers, includi...

The effect of age and body composition on body mass estimation of males using the stature/bi-iliac method.

PubMed

Junno, Juho-Antti; Niskanen, Markku; Maijanen, Heli; Holt, Brigitte; Sladek, Vladimir; Niinimäki, Sirpa; Berner, Margit

2018-02-01

The stature/bi-iliac breadth method provides reasonably precise, skeletal frame size (SFS) based body mass (BM) estimations across adults as a whole. In this study, we examine the potential effects of age changes in anthropometric dimensions on the estimation accuracy of SFS-based body mass estimation. We use anthropometric data from the literature and our own skeletal data from two osteological collections to study effects of age on stature, bi-iliac breadth, body mass, and body composition, as they are major components behind body size and body size estimations. We focus on males, as relevant longitudinal data are based on male study samples. As a general rule, lean body mass (LBM) increases through adolescence and early adulthood until people are aged in their 30s or 40s, and starts to decline in the late 40s or early 50s. Fat mass (FM) tends to increase until the mid-50s and declines thereafter, but in more mobile traditional societies it may decline throughout adult life. Because BM is the sum of LBM and FM, it exhibits a curvilinear age-related pattern in all societies. Skeletal frame size is based on stature and bi-iliac breadth, and both of those dimensions are affected by age. Skeletal frame size based body mass estimation tends to increase throughout adult life in both skeletal and anthropometric samples because an age-related increase in bi-iliac breadth more than compensates for an age-related stature decline commencing in the 30s or 40s. Combined with the above-mentioned curvilinear BM change, this results in curvilinear estimation bias. However, for simulations involving low to moderate percent body fat, the stature/bi-iliac method works well in predicting body mass in younger and middle-aged adults. Such conditions are likely to have applied to most human paleontological and archaeological samples. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerosol effect on cloud droplet size as monitored from surface-based remote sensing over East China Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandithurai, G.; Takamura, T.; Yamaguchi, J.; Miyagi, K.; Takano, T.; Ishizaka, Y.; Dipu, S.; Shimizu, A.

2009-07-01

The effect of increased aerosol concentrations on the low-level, non-precipitating, ice-free stratus clouds is examined using a suite of surface-based remote sensing systems. Cloud droplet effective radius and liquid water path are retrieved using cloud radar and microwave radiometer. Collocated measurements of aerosol scattering coefficient, size distribution and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations were used to examine the response of cloud droplet size and optical thickness to increased CCN proxies. During the episodic events of increase in aerosol accumulation-mode volume distribution, the decrease in droplet size and increase in cloud optical thickness is observed. The indirect effect estimates are made for both droplet effective radius and cloud optical thickness for different liquid water path ranges and they range 0.02-0.18 and 0.005-0.154, respectively. Data are also categorized into thin and thick clouds based on cloud geometric thickness (Δz) and estimates show IE values are relatively higher for thicker clouds.

A resource for the assessment of lung nodule size estimation methods: database of thoracic CT scans of an anthropomorphic phantom◊

PubMed Central

Gavrielides, Marios A.; Kinnard, Lisa M.; Myers, Kyle J.; Peregoy, Jennifer; Pritchard, William F.; Zeng, Rongping; Esparza, Juan; Karanian, John; Petrick, Nicholas

2010-01-01

A number of interrelated factors can affect the precision and accuracy of lung nodule size estimation. To quantify the effect of these factors, we have been conducting phantom CT studies using an anthropomorphic thoracic phantom containing a vasculature insert to which synthetic nodules were inserted or attached. Ten repeat scans were acquired on different multi-detector scanners, using several sets of acquisition and reconstruction protocols and various nodule characteristics (size, shape, density, location). This study design enables both bias and variance analysis for the nodule size estimation task. The resulting database is in the process of becoming publicly available as a resource to facilitate the assessment of lung nodule size estimation methodologies and to enable comparisons between different methods regarding measurement error. This resource complements public databases of clinical data and will contribute towards the development of procedures that will maximize the utility of CT imaging for lung cancer screening and tumor therapy evaluation. PMID:20640011

Class Size Reduction or Rapid Formative Assessment?: A Comparison of Cost-Effectiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeh, Stuart S.

2009-01-01

The cost-effectiveness of class size reduction (CSR) was compared with the cost-effectiveness of rapid formative assessment, a promising alternative for raising student achievement. Drawing upon existing meta-analyses of the effects of student-teacher ratio, evaluations of CSR in Tennessee, California, and Wisconsin, and RAND cost estimates, CSR…

Measuring Effect Sizes: The Effect of Measurement Error. Working Paper 19

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyd, Donald; Grossman, Pamela; Lankford, Hamilton; Loeb, Susanna; Wyckoff, James

2008-01-01

Value-added models in education research allow researchers to explore how a wide variety of policies and measured school inputs affect the academic performance of students. Researchers typically quantify the impacts of such interventions in terms of "effect sizes", i.e., the estimated effect of a one standard deviation change in the…

Effect of Study Design on Sample Size in Studies Intended to Evaluate Bioequivalence of Inhaled Short‐Acting β‐Agonist Formulations

PubMed Central

Zeng, Yaohui; Singh, Sachinkumar; Wang, Kai

2017-01-01

Abstract Pharmacodynamic studies that use methacholine challenge to assess bioequivalence of generic and innovator albuterol formulations are generally designed per published Food and Drug Administration guidance, with 3 reference doses and 1 test dose (3‐by‐1 design). These studies are challenging and expensive to conduct, typically requiring large sample sizes. We proposed 14 modified study designs as alternatives to the Food and Drug Administration–recommended 3‐by‐1 design, hypothesizing that adding reference and/or test doses would reduce sample size and cost. We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate sample size. Simulation inputs were selected based on published studies and our own experience with this type of trial. We also estimated effects of these modified study designs on study cost. Most of these altered designs reduced sample size and cost relative to the 3‐by‐1 design, some decreasing cost by more than 40%. The most effective single study dose to add was 180 μg of test formulation, which resulted in an estimated 30% relative cost reduction. Adding a single test dose of 90 μg was less effective, producing only a 13% cost reduction. Adding a lone reference dose of either 180, 270, or 360 μg yielded little benefit (less than 10% cost reduction), whereas adding 720 μg resulted in a 19% cost reduction. Of the 14 study design modifications we evaluated, the most effective was addition of both a 90‐μg test dose and a 720‐μg reference dose (42% cost reduction). Combining a 180‐μg test dose and a 720‐μg reference dose produced an estimated 36% cost reduction. PMID:29281130

The use of group sequential, information-based sample size re-estimation in the design of the PRIMO study of chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Pritchett, Yili; Jemiai, Yannis; Chang, Yuchiao; Bhan, Ishir; Agarwal, Rajiv; Zoccali, Carmine; Wanner, Christoph; Lloyd-Jones, Donald; Cannata-Andía, Jorge B; Thompson, Taylor; Appelbaum, Evan; Audhya, Paul; Andress, Dennis; Zhang, Wuyan; Solomon, Scott; Manning, Warren J; Thadhani, Ravi

2011-04-01

Chronic kidney disease is associated with a marked increase in risk for left ventricular hypertrophy and cardiovascular mortality compared with the general population. Therapy with vitamin D receptor activators has been linked with reduced mortality in chronic kidney disease and an improvement in left ventricular hypertrophy in animal studies. PRIMO (Paricalcitol capsules benefits in Renal failure Induced cardia MOrbidity) is a multinational, multicenter randomized controlled trial to assess the effects of paricalcitol (a selective vitamin D receptor activator) on mild to moderate left ventricular hypertrophy in patients with chronic kidney disease. Subjects with mild-moderate chronic kidney disease are randomized to paricalcitol or placebo after confirming left ventricular hypertrophy using a cardiac echocardiogram. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging is then used to assess left ventricular mass index at baseline, 24 and 48 weeks, which is the primary efficacy endpoint of the study. Because of limited prior data to estimate sample size, a maximum information group sequential design with sample size re-estimation is implemented to allow sample size adjustment based on the nuisance parameter estimated using the interim data. An interim efficacy analysis is planned at a pre-specified time point conditioned on the status of enrollment. The decision to increase sample size depends on the observed treatment effect. A repeated measures analysis model, using available data at Week 24 and 48 with a backup model of an ANCOVA analyzing change from baseline to the final nonmissing observation, are pre-specified to evaluate the treatment effect. Gamma-family of spending function is employed to control family-wise Type I error rate as stopping for success is planned in the interim efficacy analysis. If enrollment is slower than anticipated, the smaller sample size used in the interim efficacy analysis and the greater percent of missing week 48 data might decrease the parameter estimation accuracy, either for the nuisance parameter or for the treatment effect, which might in turn affect the interim decision-making. The application of combining a group sequential design with a sample-size re-estimation in clinical trial design has the potential to improve efficiency and to increase the probability of trial success while ensuring integrity of the study.

Power and sample-size estimation for microbiome studies using pairwise distances and PERMANOVA

PubMed Central

Kelly, Brendan J.; Gross, Robert; Bittinger, Kyle; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Lewis, James D.; Collman, Ronald G.; Bushman, Frederic D.; Li, Hongzhe

2015-01-01

Motivation: The variation in community composition between microbiome samples, termed beta diversity, can be measured by pairwise distance based on either presence–absence or quantitative species abundance data. PERMANOVA, a permutation-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance to a matrix of pairwise distances, partitions within-group and between-group distances to permit assessment of the effect of an exposure or intervention (grouping factor) upon the sampled microbiome. Within-group distance and exposure/intervention effect size must be accurately modeled to estimate statistical power for a microbiome study that will be analyzed with pairwise distances and PERMANOVA. Results: We present a framework for PERMANOVA power estimation tailored to marker-gene microbiome studies that will be analyzed by pairwise distances, which includes: (i) a novel method for distance matrix simulation that permits modeling of within-group pairwise distances according to pre-specified population parameters; (ii) a method to incorporate effects of different sizes within the simulated distance matrix; (iii) a simulation-based method for estimating PERMANOVA power from simulated distance matrices; and (iv) an R statistical software package that implements the above. Matrices of pairwise distances can be efficiently simulated to satisfy the triangle inequality and incorporate group-level effects, which are quantified by the adjusted coefficient of determination, omega-squared (ω2). From simulated distance matrices, available PERMANOVA power or necessary sample size can be estimated for a planned microbiome study. Availability and implementation: http://github.com/brendankelly/micropower. Contact: brendank@mail.med.upenn.edu or hongzhe@upenn.edu PMID:25819674

Effects of Class Size on Alternative Educational Outcomes across Disciplines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Dorothy A.

2011-01-01

This is the first study to use self-reported ratings of student learning, instructor recommendations, and course recommendations as the outcome measure to estimate class size effects, doing so across 24 disciplines. Fixed-effects models controlling for heterogeneous courses and instructors reveal that increasing enrollment has negative and…

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Effect Size Measures for Mediation Models: Quantitative Strategies for Communicating Indirect Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Preacher, Kristopher J.; Kelley, Ken

2011-01-01

The statistical analysis of mediation effects has become an indispensable tool for helping scientists investigate processes thought to be causal. Yet, in spite of many recent advances in the estimation and testing of mediation effects, little attention has been given to methods for communicating effect size and the practical importance of those…

How Much Can Remotely-Sensed Natural Resource Inventories Benefit from Finer Spatial Resolutions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Xu, Q.; McRoberts, R. E.; Ståhl, G.; Greenberg, J. A.

2017-12-01

For remote sensing facilitated natural resource inventories, the effects of spatial resolution in the form of pixel size and the effects of subpixel information on estimates of population parameters were evaluated by comparing results obtained using Landsat 8 and RapidEye auxiliary imagery. The study area was in Burkina Faso, and the variable of interest was the stem volume (m3/ha) convertible to the woodland aboveground biomass. A sample consisting of 160 field plots was selected and measured from the population following a two-stage sampling design. Models were fit using weighted least squares; the population mean, mu, and the variance of the estimator of the population mean, Var(mu.hat), were estimated in two inferential frameworks, model-based and model-assisted, and compared; for each framework, Var(mu.hat) was estimated both analytically and empirically. Empirical variances were estimated with bootstrapping that for resampling takes clustering effects into account. The primary results were twofold. First, for the effects of spatial resolution and subpixel information, four conclusions are relevant: (1) finer spatial resolution imagery indeed contributes to greater precision for estimators of population parameter, but this increase is slight at a maximum rate of 20% considering that RapidEye data are 36 times finer resolution than Landsat 8 data; (2) subpixel information on texture is marginally beneficial when it comes to making inference for population of large areas; (3) cost-effectiveness is more favorable for the free of charge Landsat 8 imagery than RapidEye imagery; and (4) for a given plot size, candidate remote sensing auxiliary datasets are more cost-effective when their spatial resolutions are similar to the plot size than with much finer alternatives. Second, for the comparison between estimators, three conclusions are relevant: (1) model-based variance estimates are consistent with each other and about half as large as stabilized model-assisted estimates, suggesting superior effectiveness of model-based inference to model-assisted inference; (2) bootstrapping is an effective alternative to analytical variance estimators; and (3) prediction accuracy expressed by RMSE is useful for screening candidate models to be used for population inferences.

Variance Estimation, Design Effects, and Sample Size Calculations for Respondent-Driven Sampling

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Hidden populations, such as injection drug users and sex workers, are central to a number of public health problems. However, because of the nature of these groups, it is difficult to collect accurate information about them, and this difficulty complicates disease prevention efforts. A recently developed statistical approach called respondent-driven sampling improves our ability to study hidden populations by allowing researchers to make unbiased estimates of the prevalence of certain traits in these populations. Yet, not enough is known about the sample-to-sample variability of these prevalence estimates. In this paper, we present a bootstrap method for constructing confidence intervals around respondent-driven sampling estimates and demonstrate in simulations that it outperforms the naive method currently in use. We also use simulations and real data to estimate the design effects for respondent-driven sampling in a number of situations. We conclude with practical advice about the power calculations that are needed to determine the appropriate sample size for a study using respondent-driven sampling. In general, we recommend a sample size twice as large as would be needed under simple random sampling. PMID:16937083

Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

2005-01-01

The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

An integrated analysis of phenotypic selection on insect body size and development time.

PubMed

Eck, Daniel J; Shaw, Ruth G; Geyer, Charles J; Kingsolver, Joel G

2015-09-01

Most studies of phenotypic selection do not estimate selection or fitness surfaces for multiple components of fitness within a unified statistical framework. This makes it difficult or impossible to assess how selection operates on traits through variation in multiple components of fitness. We describe a new generation of aster models that can evaluate phenotypic selection by accounting for timing of life-history transitions and their effect on population growth rate, in addition to survival and reproductive output. We use this approach to estimate selection on body size and development time for a field population of the herbivorous insect, Manduca sexta (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae). Estimated fitness surfaces revealed strong and significant directional selection favoring both larger adult size (via effects on egg counts) and more rapid rates of early larval development (via effects on larval survival). Incorporating the timing of reproduction and its influence on population growth rate into the analysis resulted in larger values for size in early larval development at which fitness is maximized, and weaker selection on size in early larval development. These results illustrate how the interplay of different components of fitness can influence selection on size and development time. This integrated modeling framework can be readily applied to studies of phenotypic selection via multiple fitness components in other systems. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population

PubMed Central

Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

2016-01-01

Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002–2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

DARK MATTER MASS FRACTION IN LENS GALAXIES: NEW ESTIMATES FROM MICROLENSING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiménez-Vicente, J.; Mediavilla, E.; Kochanek, C. S.

2015-02-01

We present a joint estimate of the stellar/dark matter mass fraction in lens galaxies and the average size of the accretion disk of lensed quasars based on microlensing measurements of 27 quasar image pairs seen through 19 lens galaxies. The Bayesian estimate for the fraction of the surface mass density in the form of stars is α = 0.21 ± 0.14 near the Einstein radius of the lenses (∼1-2 effective radii). The estimate for the average accretion disk size is R{sub 1/2}=7.9{sub −2.6}{sup +3.8}√(M/0.3 M{sub ⊙}) light days. The fraction of mass in stars at these radii is significantly largermore » than previous estimates from microlensing studies assuming quasars were point-like. The corresponding local dark matter fraction of 79% is in good agreement with other estimates based on strong lensing or kinematics. The size of the accretion disk inferred in the present study is slightly larger than previous estimates.« less

Size speed bias or size arrival effect-How judgments of vehicles' approach speed and time to arrival are influenced by the vehicles' size.

PubMed

Petzoldt, Tibor

2016-10-01

Crashes at railway level crossings are a key problem for railway operations. It has been suggested that a potential explanation for such crashes might lie in a so-called size speed bias, which describes the phenomenon that observers underestimate the speed of larger objects, such as aircraft or trains. While there is some evidence that this size speed bias indeed exists, it is somewhat at odds with another well researched phenomenon, the size arrival effect. When asked to judge the time it takes an approaching object to arrive at a predefined position (time to arrival, TTA), observers tend to provide lower estimates for larger objects. In that case, road users' crossing decisions when confronted with larger vehicles should be rather conservative, which has been confirmed in multiple studies on gap acceptance. The aim of the experiment reported in this paper was to clarify the relationship between size speed bias and size arrival effect. Employing a relative judgment task, both speed and TTA estimates were assessed for virtual depictions of a train and a truck, using a car as a reference to compare against. The results confirmed the size speed bias for the speed judgments, with both train and truck being perceived as travelling slower than the car. A comparable bias was also present in the TTA estimates for the truck. In contrast, no size arrival effect could be found for the train or the truck, neither in the speed nor the TTA judgments. This finding is inconsistent with the fact that crossing behaviour when confronted with larger vehicles appears to be consistently more conservative. This discrepancy might be interpreted as an indication that factors other than perceived speed or TTA play an important role for the differences in gap acceptance between different types of vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vertical variation of ice particle size in convective cloud tops.

PubMed

van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan; Fridlind, Ann M; Cairns, Brian; Ackerman, Andrew S; Yorks, John E

2016-05-16

A novel technique is used to estimate derivatives of ice effective radius with respect to height near convective cloud tops ( dr e / dz ) from airborne shortwave reflectance measurements and lidar. Values of dr e / dz are about -6 μ m/km for cloud tops below the homogeneous freezing level, increasing to near 0 μ m/km above the estimated level of neutral buoyancy. Retrieved dr e / dz compares well with previously documented remote sensing and in situ estimates. Effective radii decrease with increasing cloud top height, while cloud top extinction increases. This is consistent with weaker size sorting in high, dense cloud tops above the level of neutral buoyancy where fewer large particles are present, and with stronger size sorting in lower cloud tops that are less dense. The results also confirm that cloud-top trends of effective radius can generally be used as surrogates for trends with height within convective cloud tops. These results provide valuable observational targets for model evaluation.

Vertical Variation of Ice Particle Size in Convective Cloud Tops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan; Fridlind, Ann M.; Cairns, Brian; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Yorks, John E.

2016-01-01

A novel technique is used to estimate derivatives of ice effective radius with respect to height near convective cloud tops (dr(sub e)/dz) from airborne shortwave reflectance measurements and lidar. Values of dr(sub e)/dz are about -6 micrometer/km for cloud tops below the homogeneous freezing level, increasing to near 0 micrometer/km above the estimated level of neutral buoyancy. Retrieved dr(sub e)/dz compares well with previously documented remote sensing and in situ estimates. Effective radii decrease with increasing cloud top height, while cloud top extinction increases. This is consistent with weaker size sorting in high, dense cloud tops above the level of neutral buoyancy where fewer large particles are present and with stronger size sorting in lower cloud tops that are less dense. The results also confirm that cloud top trends of effective radius can generally be used as surrogates for trends with height within convective cloud tops. These results provide valuable observational targets for model evaluation.

A systematic review of the evidence: the effects of portion size manipulation with children and portion education/training interventions on dietary intake with adults.

PubMed

Small, Leigh; Lane, Heather; Vaughan, Linda; Melnyk, Bernadette; McBurnett, Danielle

2013-05-01

Evidence shows that 3-5-year-old children undergo important physical and behavioral changes that include being affected by the amount of food they are served, with larger portions of food served resulting in greater dietary intake. This may be a key finding as researchers continue to identify effective treatments for the growing number of preschool children who are overweight or obese. Knowledge of the effects of varying portion sizes on young children's dietary intake is important; however, because parents of young children control the manner in which children are fed, educating parents regarding the estimation of portion sizes is an approach worth exploring as a way to affect the trajectory of their young child's weight gain. The purposes of this systematic review were to determine (1) findings regarding the effect of varying portion sizes with young children and (2) the evidence regarding the effects of educating adults to estimate portion sizes. Evidence from this review may guide clinical practice and future research efforts. A comprehensive literature search was conducted with multiple databases using MeSH Headings and keywords. This search strategy was supplemented by ancestry searches of all relevant articles. Two independent, trained pediatric practitioners determined quality of the studies using established criteria. Nine studies met the inclusion criteria as portion-manipulation interventions or portion-education/training interventions and were appraised. Evidence showed the positive effect of portion sizes on the energy intake of children. In addition, the ability of adults to accurately estimate portion size improved following education/training. Although many studies have focused on a variety of portion-related interventions, the influence of portion education with parents of young children has not been well researched. More research is needed to understand the effect of parent-focused, portion-education interventions that encourage appropriate energy intake and healthy weight attainment in young children. © Sigma Theta Tau International.

Job Stress in the United Kingdom: Are Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises and Large Enterprises Different?

PubMed

Lai, Yanqing; Saridakis, George; Blackburn, Robert

2015-08-01

This paper examines the relationships between firm size and employees' experience of work stress. We used a matched employer-employee dataset (Workplace Employment Relations Survey 2011) that comprises of 7182 employees from 1210 private organizations in the United Kingdom. Initially, we find that employees in small and medium-sized enterprises experience lower level of overall job stress than those in large enterprises, although the effect disappears when we control for individual and organizational characteristics in the model. We also find that quantitative work overload, job insecurity and poor promotion opportunities, good work relationships and poor communication are strongly associated with job stress in the small and medium-sized enterprises, whereas qualitative work overload, poor job autonomy and employee engagements are more related with larger enterprises. Hence, our estimates show that the association and magnitude of estimated effects differ significantly by enterprise size. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

It’s Out of My Hands! Grasping Capacity May Not Influence Perceived Object Size

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Linkenauger, Witt, and Proffitt (2011) found that the perceived size of graspable objects was scaled by perceived grasping capacity. However, it is possible that this effect occurred because object size was estimated on the same trial as grasping capacity. This may have led to a conflation of estimates of perceived action capacity and spatial properties. In 5 experiments, we tested Linkenauger et al.’s claim that right-handed observers overestimate the grasping capacity of their right hand relative to their left hand, and that this, in turn, leads them to underestimate the size of objects to-be-grasped in their right hand relative to their left hand. We replicated the finding that right handers overestimate the size and grasping capacity of their right hand relative to their left hand. However, when estimates of object size and grasping capacity were made in separate tasks, objects grasped in the right hand were not underestimated relative to those grasped in the left hand. Further, when grasping capacity was physically restricted, observers appropriately recalibrated their perception of their maximum grasp but estimates of object size were unaffected. Our results suggest that changes in action capacity may not influence perceived object size if sources of conflation are controlled for. PMID:28191987

Finite mixture model: A maximum likelihood estimation approach on time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

2014-09-01

Recently, statistician emphasized on the fitting of finite mixture model by using maximum likelihood estimation as it provides asymptotic properties. In addition, it shows consistency properties as the sample sizes increases to infinity. This illustrated that maximum likelihood estimation is an unbiased estimator. Moreover, the estimate parameters obtained from the application of maximum likelihood estimation have smallest variance as compared to others statistical method as the sample sizes increases. Thus, maximum likelihood estimation is adopted in this paper to fit the two-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and exchange rate for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and exchange rate for all selected countries.

Sample size and power for cost-effectiveness analysis (part 1).

PubMed

Glick, Henry A

2011-03-01

Basic sample size and power formulae for cost-effectiveness analysis have been established in the literature. These formulae are reviewed and the similarities and differences between sample size and power for cost-effectiveness analysis and for the analysis of other continuous variables such as changes in blood pressure or weight are described. The types of sample size and power tables that are commonly calculated for cost-effectiveness analysis are also described and the impact of varying the assumed parameter values on the resulting sample size and power estimates is discussed. Finally, the way in which the data for these calculations may be derived are discussed.

The relationship between offspring size and fitness: integrating theory and empiricism.

PubMed

Rollinson, Njal; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2013-02-01

How parents divide the energy available for reproduction between size and number of offspring has a profound effect on parental reproductive success. Theory indicates that the relationship between offspring size and offspring fitness is of fundamental importance to the evolution of parental reproductive strategies: this relationship predicts the optimal division of resources between size and number of offspring, it describes the fitness consequences for parents that deviate from optimality, and its shape can predict the most viable type of investment strategy in a given environment (e.g., conservative vs. diversified bet-hedging). Many previous attempts to estimate this relationship and the corresponding value of optimal offspring size have been frustrated by a lack of integration between theory and empiricism. In the present study, we draw from C. Smith and S. Fretwell's classic model to explain how a sound estimate of the offspring size--fitness relationship can be derived with empirical data. We evaluate what measures of fitness can be used to model the offspring size--fitness curve and optimal size, as well as which statistical models should and should not be used to estimate offspring size--fitness relationships. To construct the fitness curve, we recommend that offspring fitness be measured as survival up to the age at which the instantaneous rate of offspring mortality becomes random with respect to initial investment. Parental fitness is then expressed in ecologically meaningful, theoretically defensible, and broadly comparable units: the number of offspring surviving to independence. Although logistic and asymptotic regression have been widely used to estimate offspring size-fitness relationships, the former provides relatively unreliable estimates of optimal size when offspring survival and sample sizes are low, and the latter is unreliable under all conditions. We recommend that the Weibull-1 model be used to estimate this curve because it provides modest improvements in prediction accuracy under experimentally relevant conditions.

Estimating Radiation Dose Metrics for Patients Undergoing Tube Current Modulation CT Scans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, Kyle Lorin

Computed tomography (CT) has long been a powerful tool in the diagnosis of disease, identification of tumors and guidance of interventional procedures. With CT examinations comes the concern of radiation exposure and the associated risks. In order to properly understand those risks on a patient-specific level, organ dose must be quantified for each CT scan. Some of the most widely used organ dose estimates are derived from fixed tube current (FTC) scans of a standard sized idealized patient model. However, in current clinical practice, patient size varies from neonates weighing just a few kg to morbidly obese patients weighing over 200 kg, and nearly all CT exams are performed with tube current modulation (TCM), a scanning technique that adjusts scanner output according to changes in patient attenuation. Methods to account for TCM in CT organ dose estimates have been previously demonstrated, but these methods are limited in scope and/or restricted to idealized TCM profiles that are not based on physical observations and not scanner specific (e.g. don't account for tube limits, scanner-specific effects, etc.). The goal of this work was to develop methods to estimate organ doses to patients undergoing CT scans that take into account both the patient size as well as the effects of TCM. This work started with the development and validation of methods to estimate scanner-specific TCM schemes for any voxelized patient model. An approach was developed to generate estimated TCM schemes that match actual TCM schemes that would have been acquired on the scanner for any patient model. Using this approach, TCM schemes were then generated for a variety of body CT protocols for a set of reference voxelized phantoms for which TCM information does not currently exist. These are whole body patient models representing a variety of sizes, ages and genders that have all radiosensitive organs identified. TCM schemes for these models facilitated Monte Carlo-based estimates of fully-, partially- and indirectly-irradiated organ dose from TCM CT exams. By accounting for the effects of patient size in the organ dose estimates, a comprehensive set of patient-specific dose estimates from TCM CT exams was developed. These patient-specific organ dose estimates from TCM CT exams will provide a more complete understanding of the dose impact and risks associated with modern body CT scanning protocols.

Electrostatic Estimation of Intercalant Jump-Diffusion Barriers Using Finite-Size Ion Models.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Nils E R; Hannah, Daniel C; Rong, Ziqin; Liu, Miao; Ceder, Gerbrand; Haranczyk, Maciej; Persson, Kristin A

2018-02-01

We report on a scheme for estimating intercalant jump-diffusion barriers that are typically obtained from demanding density functional theory-nudged elastic band calculations. The key idea is to relax a chain of states in the field of the electrostatic potential that is averaged over a spherical volume using different finite-size ion models. For magnesium migrating in typical intercalation materials such as transition-metal oxides, we find that the optimal model is a relatively large shell. This data-driven result parallels typical assumptions made in models based on Onsager's reaction field theory to quantitatively estimate electrostatic solvent effects. Because of its efficiency, our potential of electrostatics-finite ion size (PfEFIS) barrier estimation scheme will enable rapid identification of materials with good ionic mobility.

Thoracic and respirable particle definitions for human health risk assessment.

PubMed

Brown, James S; Gordon, Terry; Price, Owen; Asgharian, Bahman

2013-04-10

Particle size-selective sampling refers to the collection of particles of varying sizes that potentially reach and adversely affect specific regions of the respiratory tract. Thoracic and respirable fractions are defined as the fraction of inhaled particles capable of passing beyond the larynx and ciliated airways, respectively, during inhalation. In an attempt to afford greater protection to exposed individuals, current size-selective sampling criteria overestimate the population means of particle penetration into regions of the lower respiratory tract. The purpose of our analyses was to provide estimates of the thoracic and respirable fractions for adults and children during typical activities with both nasal and oral inhalation, that may be used in the design of experimental studies and interpretation of health effects evidence. We estimated the fraction of inhaled particles (0.5-20 μm aerodynamic diameter) penetrating beyond the larynx (based on experimental data) and ciliated airways (based on a mathematical model) for an adult male, adult female, and a 10 yr old child during typical daily activities and breathing patterns. Our estimates show less penetration of coarse particulate matter into the thoracic and gas exchange regions of the respiratory tract than current size-selective criteria. Of the parameters we evaluated, particle penetration into the lower respiratory tract was most dependent on route of breathing. For typical activity levels and breathing habits, we estimated a 50% cut-size for the thoracic fraction at an aerodynamic diameter of around 3 μm in adults and 5 μm in children, whereas current ambient and occupational criteria suggest a 50% cut-size of 10 μm. By design, current size-selective sample criteria overestimate the mass of particles generally expected to penetrate into the lower respiratory tract to provide protection for individuals who may breathe orally. We provide estimates of thoracic and respirable fractions for a variety of breathing habits and activities that may benefit the design of experimental studies and interpretation of particle size-specific health effects.

Thoracic and respirable particle definitions for human health risk assessment

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Particle size-selective sampling refers to the collection of particles of varying sizes that potentially reach and adversely affect specific regions of the respiratory tract. Thoracic and respirable fractions are defined as the fraction of inhaled particles capable of passing beyond the larynx and ciliated airways, respectively, during inhalation. In an attempt to afford greater protection to exposed individuals, current size-selective sampling criteria overestimate the population means of particle penetration into regions of the lower respiratory tract. The purpose of our analyses was to provide estimates of the thoracic and respirable fractions for adults and children during typical activities with both nasal and oral inhalation, that may be used in the design of experimental studies and interpretation of health effects evidence. Methods We estimated the fraction of inhaled particles (0.5-20 μm aerodynamic diameter) penetrating beyond the larynx (based on experimental data) and ciliated airways (based on a mathematical model) for an adult male, adult female, and a 10 yr old child during typical daily activities and breathing patterns. Results Our estimates show less penetration of coarse particulate matter into the thoracic and gas exchange regions of the respiratory tract than current size-selective criteria. Of the parameters we evaluated, particle penetration into the lower respiratory tract was most dependent on route of breathing. For typical activity levels and breathing habits, we estimated a 50% cut-size for the thoracic fraction at an aerodynamic diameter of around 3 μm in adults and 5 μm in children, whereas current ambient and occupational criteria suggest a 50% cut-size of 10 μm. Conclusions By design, current size-selective sample criteria overestimate the mass of particles generally expected to penetrate into the lower respiratory tract to provide protection for individuals who may breathe orally. We provide estimates of thoracic and respirable fractions for a variety of breathing habits and activities that may benefit the design of experimental studies and interpretation of particle size-specific health effects. PMID:23575443

Patient- and cohort-specific dose and risk estimation for abdominopelvic CT: a study based on 100 patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Samei, Ehsan

2012-03-01

The purpose of this work was twofold: (a) to estimate patient- and cohort-specific radiation dose and cancer risk index for abdominopelvic computer tomography (CT) scans; (b) to evaluate the effects of patient anatomical characteristics (size, age, and gender) and CT scanner model on dose and risk conversion coefficients. The study included 100 patient models (42 pediatric models, 58 adult models) and multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare). A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which DLP-normalized-effective dose (k factor) and DLP-normalized-risk index values (q factor) were derived. The k factor showed exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For a given gender, q factor showed exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The discrepancies in k and q factors across scanners were on average 8% and 15%, respectively. This study demonstrates the feasibility of estimating patient-specific organ dose and cohort-specific effective dose and risk index in abdominopelvic CT requiring only the knowledge of patient size, gender, and age.

Heat increment of feeding in Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus.

PubMed

Rosen, D A; Trites, A W

1997-11-01

The heat increment of feeding (HIF) was measured in six captive, juvenile Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), fed meals of either 2 or 4 kg of herring. HIF was calculated as the post-prandial increase in metabolism above baseline levels, and was measured using open-circuit (gas) respirometry. It averaged 12.4 +/- 0.9% (SE) of ingested energy intake for the 4-kg meal trials, and 9.9 +/- 0.9% for the 2-kg meal size. The effect lasted 8-10 hr for the larger meal size. Metabolism peaked 3.7 hr after feeding, and was 2.13 times higher than baseline levels. For the 2-kg meal size, the effect lasted 6-8 hr, with metabolism peaking 2.8 hr after ingestion at 1.76 times baseline levels. Our estimates of HIF for Steller sea lions are at the lower end of estimates for terrestrial mammals, and are consistent with estimates for other marine mammals.

The distance between Mars and Venus: measuring global sex differences in personality.

PubMed

Del Giudice, Marco; Booth, Tom; Irwing, Paul

2012-01-01

Sex differences in personality are believed to be comparatively small. However, research in this area has suffered from significant methodological limitations. We advance a set of guidelines for overcoming those limitations: (a) measure personality with a higher resolution than that afforded by the Big Five; (b) estimate sex differences on latent factors; and (c) assess global sex differences with multivariate effect sizes. We then apply these guidelines to a large, representative adult sample, and obtain what is presently the best estimate of global sex differences in personality. Personality measures were obtained from a large US sample (N = 10,261) with the 16PF Questionnaire. Multigroup latent variable modeling was used to estimate sex differences on individual personality dimensions, which were then aggregated to yield a multivariate effect size (Mahalanobis D). We found a global effect size D = 2.71, corresponding to an overlap of only 10% between the male and female distributions. Even excluding the factor showing the largest univariate ES, the global effect size was D = 1.71 (24% overlap). These are extremely large differences by psychological standards. The idea that there are only minor differences between the personality profiles of males and females should be rejected as based on inadequate methodology.

The Distance Between Mars and Venus: Measuring Global Sex Differences in Personality

PubMed Central

Del Giudice, Marco; Booth, Tom; Irwing, Paul

2012-01-01

Background Sex differences in personality are believed to be comparatively small. However, research in this area has suffered from significant methodological limitations. We advance a set of guidelines for overcoming those limitations: (a) measure personality with a higher resolution than that afforded by the Big Five; (b) estimate sex differences on latent factors; and (c) assess global sex differences with multivariate effect sizes. We then apply these guidelines to a large, representative adult sample, and obtain what is presently the best estimate of global sex differences in personality. Methodology/Principal Findings Personality measures were obtained from a large US sample (N = 10,261) with the 16PF Questionnaire. Multigroup latent variable modeling was used to estimate sex differences on individual personality dimensions, which were then aggregated to yield a multivariate effect size (Mahalanobis D). We found a global effect size D = 2.71, corresponding to an overlap of only 10% between the male and female distributions. Even excluding the factor showing the largest univariate ES, the global effect size was D = 1.71 (24% overlap). These are extremely large differences by psychological standards. Significance The idea that there are only minor differences between the personality profiles of males and females should be rejected as based on inadequate methodology. PMID:22238596

Population and genetic outcomes 20 years after reintroducing bobcats (Lynx rufus) to Cumberland Island, Georgia USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, Duane R.; Hansen, Leslie A.; Bohling, Justin H.; Miller-Butterworth, Cassandra

2015-01-01

In 1988–1989, 32 bobcats Lynx rufus were reintroduced to Cumberland Island (CUIS), Georgia, USA, from which they had previously been extirpated. They were monitored intensively for 3 years immediately post-reintroduction, but no estimation of the size or genetic diversity of the population had been conducted in over 20 years since reintroduction. We returned to CUIS in 2012 to estimate abundance and effective population size of the present-day population, as well as to quantify genetic diversity and inbreeding. We amplified 12 nuclear microsatellite loci from DNA isolated from scats to establish genetic profiles to identify individuals. We used spatially explicit capture–recapture population estimation to estimate abundance. From nine unique genetic profiles, we estimate a population size of 14.4 (SE = 3.052) bobcats, with an effective population size (Ne) of 5–8 breeding individuals. This is consistent with predictions of a population viability analysis conducted at the time of reintroduction, which estimated the population would average 12–13 bobcats after 10 years. We identified several pairs of related bobcats (parent-offspring and full siblings), but ~75% of the pairwise comparisons were typical of unrelated individuals, and only one individual appeared inbred. Despite the small population size and other indications that it has likely experienced a genetic bottleneck, levels of genetic diversity in the CUIS bobcat population remain high compared to other mammalian carnivores. The reintroduction of bobcats to CUIS provides an opportunity to study changes in genetic diversity in an insular population without risk to this common species. Opportunities for natural immigration to the island are limited; therefore, continued monitoring and supplemental bobcat reintroductions could be used to evaluate the effect of different management strategies to maintain genetic diversity and population viability. The successful reintroduction and maintenance of a bobcat population on CUIS illustrates the suitability of translocation as a management tool for re-establishing felid populations.

[Practical aspects regarding sample size in clinical research].

PubMed

Vega Ramos, B; Peraza Yanes, O; Herrera Correa, G; Saldívar Toraya, S

1996-01-01

The knowledge of the right sample size let us to be sure if the published results in medical papers had a suitable design and a proper conclusion according to the statistics analysis. To estimate the sample size we must consider the type I error, type II error, variance, the size of the effect, significance and power of the test. To decide what kind of mathematics formula will be used, we must define what kind of study we have, it means if its a prevalence study, a means values one or a comparative one. In this paper we explain some basic topics of statistics and we describe four simple samples of estimation of sample size.

Estimating the Size of a Large Network and its Communities from a Random Sample

PubMed Central

Chen, Lin; Karbasi, Amin; Crawford, Forrest W.

2017-01-01

Most real-world networks are too large to be measured or studied directly and there is substantial interest in estimating global network properties from smaller sub-samples. One of the most important global properties is the number of vertices/nodes in the network. Estimating the number of vertices in a large network is a major challenge in computer science, epidemiology, demography, and intelligence analysis. In this paper we consider a population random graph G = (V, E) from the stochastic block model (SBM) with K communities/blocks. A sample is obtained by randomly choosing a subset W ⊆ V and letting G(W) be the induced subgraph in G of the vertices in W. In addition to G(W), we observe the total degree of each sampled vertex and its block membership. Given this partial information, we propose an efficient PopULation Size Estimation algorithm, called PULSE, that accurately estimates the size of the whole population as well as the size of each community. To support our theoretical analysis, we perform an exhaustive set of experiments to study the effects of sample size, K, and SBM model parameters on the accuracy of the estimates. The experimental results also demonstrate that PULSE significantly outperforms a widely-used method called the network scale-up estimator in a wide variety of scenarios. PMID:28867924

Estimating the Size of a Large Network and its Communities from a Random Sample.

PubMed

Chen, Lin; Karbasi, Amin; Crawford, Forrest W

2016-01-01

Most real-world networks are too large to be measured or studied directly and there is substantial interest in estimating global network properties from smaller sub-samples. One of the most important global properties is the number of vertices/nodes in the network. Estimating the number of vertices in a large network is a major challenge in computer science, epidemiology, demography, and intelligence analysis. In this paper we consider a population random graph G = ( V, E ) from the stochastic block model (SBM) with K communities/blocks. A sample is obtained by randomly choosing a subset W ⊆ V and letting G ( W ) be the induced subgraph in G of the vertices in W . In addition to G ( W ), we observe the total degree of each sampled vertex and its block membership. Given this partial information, we propose an efficient PopULation Size Estimation algorithm, called PULSE, that accurately estimates the size of the whole population as well as the size of each community. To support our theoretical analysis, we perform an exhaustive set of experiments to study the effects of sample size, K , and SBM model parameters on the accuracy of the estimates. The experimental results also demonstrate that PULSE significantly outperforms a widely-used method called the network scale-up estimator in a wide variety of scenarios.

Empirical Bayes Estimation of Semi-parametric Hierarchical Mixture Models for Unbiased Characterization of Polygenic Disease Architectures

PubMed Central

Nishino, Jo; Kochi, Yuta; Shigemizu, Daichi; Kato, Mamoru; Ikari, Katsunori; Ochi, Hidenori; Noma, Hisashi; Matsui, Kota; Morizono, Takashi; Boroevich, Keith A.; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Matsui, Shigeyuki

2018-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) suggest that the genetic architecture of complex diseases consists of unexpectedly numerous variants with small effect sizes. However, the polygenic architectures of many diseases have not been well characterized due to lack of simple and fast methods for unbiased estimation of the underlying proportion of disease-associated variants and their effect-size distribution. Applying empirical Bayes estimation of semi-parametric hierarchical mixture models to GWAS summary statistics, we confirmed that schizophrenia was extremely polygenic [~40% of independent genome-wide SNPs are risk variants, most within odds ratio (OR = 1.03)], whereas rheumatoid arthritis was less polygenic (~4 to 8% risk variants, significant portion reaching OR = 1.05 to 1.1). For rheumatoid arthritis, stratified estimations revealed that expression quantitative loci in blood explained large genetic variance, and low- and high-frequency derived alleles were prone to be risk and protective, respectively, suggesting a predominance of deleterious-risk and advantageous-protective mutations. Despite genetic correlation, effect-size distributions for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder differed across allele frequency. These analyses distinguished disease polygenic architectures and provided clues for etiological differences in complex diseases. PMID:29740473

Estimating black bear population density and genetic diversity at Tensas River, Louisiana using microsatellite DNA markers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boersen, Mark R.; Clark, Joseph D.; King, Tim L.

2003-01-01

The Recovery Plan for the federally threatened Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) mandates that remnant populations be estimated and monitored. In 1999 we obtained genetic material with barbed-wire hair traps to estimate bear population size and genetic diversity at the 329-km2 Tensas River Tract, Louisiana. We constructed and monitored 122 hair traps, which produced 1,939 hair samples. Of those, we randomly selected 116 subsamples for genetic analysis and used up to 12 microsatellite DNA markers to obtain multilocus genotypes for 58 individuals. We used Program CAPTURE to compute estimates of population size using multiple mark-recapture models. The area of study was almost entirely circumscribed by agricultural land, thus the population was geographically closed. Also, study-area boundaries were biologically discreet, enabling us to accurately estimate population density. Using model Chao Mh to account for possible effects of individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, we estimated the population size to be 119 (SE=29.4) bears, or 0.36 bears/km2. We were forced to examine a substantial number of loci to differentiate between some individuals because of low genetic variation. Despite the probable introduction of genes from Minnesota bears in the 1960s, the isolated population at Tensas exhibited characteristics consistent with inbreeding and genetic drift. Consequently, the effective population size at Tensas may be as few as 32, which warrants continued monitoring or possibly genetic augmentation.

Sampling for area estimation: A comparison of full-frame sampling with the sample segment approach. [Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hixson, M. M.; Bauer, M. E.; Davis, B. J.

1979-01-01

The effect of sampling on the accuracy (precision and bias) of crop area estimates made from classifications of LANDSAT MSS data was investigated. Full-frame classifications of wheat and non-wheat for eighty counties in Kansas were repetitively sampled to simulate alternative sampling plants. Four sampling schemes involving different numbers of samples and different size sampling units were evaluated. The precision of the wheat area estimates increased as the segment size decreased and the number of segments was increased. Although the average bias associated with the various sampling schemes was not significantly different, the maximum absolute bias was directly related to sampling unit size.

Differential effects of delay upon visually and haptically guided grasping and perceptual judgments.

PubMed

Pettypiece, Charles E; Culham, Jody C; Goodale, Melvyn A

2009-05-01

Experiments with visual illusions have revealed a dissociation between the systems that mediate object perception and those responsible for object-directed action. More recently, an experiment on a haptic version of the visual size-contrast illusion has provided evidence for the notion that the haptic modality shows a similar dissociation when grasping and estimating the size of objects in real-time. Here we present evidence suggesting that the similarities between the two modalities begin to break down once a delay is introduced between when people feel the target object and when they perform the grasp or estimation. In particular, when grasping after a delay in a haptic paradigm, people scale their grasps differently when the target is presented with a flanking object of a different size (although the difference does not reflect a size-contrast effect). When estimating after a delay, however, it appears that people ignore the size of the flanking objects entirely. This does not fit well with the results commonly found in visual experiments. Thus, introducing a delay reveals important differences in the way in which haptic and visual memories are stored and accessed.

Meta-Analysis of Effect Sizes Reported at Multiple Time Points Using General Linear Mixed Model.

PubMed

Musekiwa, Alfred; Manda, Samuel O M; Mwambi, Henry G; Chen, Ding-Geng

2016-01-01

Meta-analysis of longitudinal studies combines effect sizes measured at pre-determined time points. The most common approach involves performing separate univariate meta-analyses at individual time points. This simplistic approach ignores dependence between longitudinal effect sizes, which might result in less precise parameter estimates. In this paper, we show how to conduct a meta-analysis of longitudinal effect sizes where we contrast different covariance structures for dependence between effect sizes, both within and between studies. We propose new combinations of covariance structures for the dependence between effect size and utilize a practical example involving meta-analysis of 17 trials comparing postoperative treatments for a type of cancer, where survival is measured at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months post randomization. Although the results from this particular data set show the benefit of accounting for within-study serial correlation between effect sizes, simulations are required to confirm these results.

Evidence of market-driven size-selective fishing and the mediating effects of biological and institutional factors.

PubMed

Reddy, Sheila M W; Wentz, Allison; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Maxey, Martin; Nagavarapu, Sriniketh; Leslie, Heather M

2013-06-01

Market demand is often ignored or assumed to lead uniformly to the decline of resources. Yet little is known about how market demand influences natural resources in particular contexts, or the mediating effects of biological or institutional factors. Here, we investigate this problem by examining the Pacific red snapper (Lutjanus peru) fishery around La Paz, Mexico, where medium or "plate-sized" fish are sold to restaurants at a premium price. If higher demand for plate-sized fish increases the relative abundance of the smallest (recruit size class) and largest (most fecund) fish, this may be a market mechanism to increase stocks and fishermen's revenues. We tested this hypothesis by estimating the effect of prices on the distribution of catch across size classes using daily records of prices and catch. We linked predictions from this economic choice model to a staged-based model of the fishery to estimate the effects on the stock and revenues from harvest. We found that the supply of plate-sized fish increased by 6%, while the supply of large fish decreased by 4% as a result of a 13% price premium for plate-sized fish. This market-driven size selection increased revenues (14%) but decreased total fish biomass (-3%). However, when market-driven size selection was combined with limited institutional constraints, both fish biomass (28%) and fishermen's revenue (22%) increased. These results show that the direction and magnitude of the effects of market demand on biological populations and human behavior can depend on both biological attributes and institutional constraints. Fisheries management may capitalize on these conditional effects by implementing size-based regulations when economic and institutional incentives will enhance compliance, as in the case we describe here, or by creating compliance enhancing conditions for existing regulations.

A critical assessment of estimating census population size from genetic population size (or vice versa) in three fishes.

PubMed

Yates, Matthew Carl; Bernos, Thais A; Fraser, Dylan J

2017-10-01

Technological and methodological advances have facilitated the use of genetic data to infer census population size (N c ) in natural populations, particularly where traditional mark-and-recapture is challenging. The effective number of breeders (N b ) describes how many adults effectively contribute to a cohort and is often correlated with N c . Predicting N c from N b or vice versa in species with overlapping generations has important implications for conservation by permitting (i) estimation of the more difficult to quantify variable and (ii) inferences of N b /N c relationships in related species lacking data. We quantitatively synthesized N b /N c relationships in three salmonid fishes where sufficient data have recently accumulated. Mixed-effects models were analysed in which each variable was included as a dependent variable or predictor term (N b from N c and vice versa). Species-dependent N b /N c slope estimates were significantly positive in two of three species. Variation in species slopes was likely due to varying life histories and reinforce caution when inferring N b /N c from taxonomically related species. Models provided maximum probable estimates for N b and N c for two species. However, study, population and year effects explained substantial amounts of variation (39%-57%). Consequently, prediction intervals were wide and included or were close to zero for all population sizes and species; model predictive utility was limited. Cost-benefit trade-offs when estimating N b and/or N c were also discussed using a real-world system example. Our findings based on salmonids suggest that no short cuts currently exist when estimating population size and researchers should focus on quantifying the variable of interest or be aware of caveats when inferring the desired variable because of cost or logistics. We caution that the salmonid species examined share life-history traits that may obscure relationships between N b and N c . Sufficient data on other taxa were unavailable; additional research examining N b /N c relationships in species with potentially relevant life-history trait differences (e.g., differing survival curves) is needed.

Coagulation effect on the activity size distributions of long lived radon progeny aerosols and its application to atmospheric residence time estimation techniques.

PubMed

Anand, S; Mayya, Y S

2015-03-01

The long lived naturally occurring radon progeny species in the atmosphere, namely (210)Pb, (210)Bi and (210)Po, have been used as important tracers for understanding the atmospheric mixing processes and estimating aerosol residence times. Several observations in the past have shown that the activity size distribution of these species peaks at larger particle sizes as compared to the short lived radon progeny species - an effect that has been attributed to the process of coagulation of the background aerosols to which they are attached. To address this issue, a mathematical equation is derived for the activity-size distribution of tracer species by formulating a generalized distribution function for the number of tracer atoms present in coagulating background particles in the presence of radioactive decay and removal. A set of these equations is numerically solved for the progeny chain using Fuchs coagulation kernel combined with a realistic steady-state aerosol size spectrum that includes nucleation, accumulation and coarse mode components. The important findings are: (i) larger shifts in the modal sizes of (210)Pb and (210)Po at higher aerosol concentrations such as that found in certain Asian urban regions (ii) enrichment of tracer specific activity on particles as compared to that predicted by pure attachment laws (iii) sharp decline of daughter-to-parent activity ratios for decreasing particle sizes. The implication of the results to size-fractionated residence time estimation techniques is highlighted. A coagulation corrected graphical approach is presented for estimating the residence times from the size-segregated activity ratios of (210)Bi and (210)Po with respect to (210)Pb. The discrepancy between the residence times predicted by conventional formula and the coagulation corrected approach for specified activity ratios increases at higher atmospheric aerosol number concentrations (>10(10) #/m(3)) for smaller sizes (<1 μm). The results are further discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Causal Effect of Class Size on Academic Achievement: Multivariate Instrumental Variable Estimators with Data Missing at Random

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Yongyun; Raudenbush, Stephen W.

2011-01-01

This article addresses three questions: Does reduced class size cause higher academic achievement in reading, mathematics, listening, and word recognition skills? If it does, how large are these effects? Does the magnitude of such effects vary significantly across schools? The authors analyze data from Tennessee's Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio…

Choosing Assessment Instruments for Anxiety Practice and Outcome Research with School-Aged Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erford, Bradley T.; Lutz, Julie A.

2015-01-01

Using effect size results from our meta-analysis for the treatment of anxiety in school-aged youth, the practical and technical aspects of five commonly used anxiety instruments were analyzed, and effect size estimates compared to indicate the best choices for use in anxiety outcome research.

Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

2013-01-01

Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

Itsy bitsy spider?: Valence and self-relevance predict size estimation.

PubMed

Leibovich, Tali; Cohen, Noga; Henik, Avishai

2016-12-01

The current study explored the role of valence and self-relevance in size estimation of neutral and aversive animals. In Experiment 1, participants who were highly fearful of spiders and participants with low fear of spiders rated the size and unpleasantness of spiders and other neutral animals (birds and butterflies). We found that although individuals with both high and low fear of spiders rated spiders as highly unpleasant, only the highly fearful participants rated spiders as larger than butterflies. Experiment 2 included additional pictures of wasps (not self-relevant, but unpleasant) and beetles. The results of this experiment replicated those of Experiment 1 and showed a similar bias in size estimation for beetles, but not for wasps. Mediation analysis revealed that in the high-fear group both relevance and valence influenced perceived size, whereas in the low-fear group only valence affected perceived size. These findings suggest that the effect of highly relevant stimuli on size perception is both direct and mediated by valence. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enterprise size and return to work after stroke.

PubMed

Hannerz, Harald; Ferm, Linnea; Poulsen, Otto M; Pedersen, Betina Holbæk; Andersen, Lars L

2012-12-01

It has been hypothesised that return to work rates among sick-listed workers increases with enterprise size. The aim of the present study was to estimate the effect of enterprise size on the odds of returning to work among previously employed stroke patients in Denmark, 2000-2006. We used a prospective design with a 2 year follow-up period. The study population consisted of 13,178 stroke patients divided into four enterprise sizes categories, according to the place of their employment prior to the stroke: micro (1-9 employees), small (10-49 employees), medium (50-249 employees) and large (>250 employees). The analysis was based on nationwide data on enterprise size from Statistics Denmark merged with data from the Danish occupational hospitalisation register. We found a statistically significant association (p = 0.034); each increase in enterprise size category was followed by an increase in the estimated odds of returning to work. The chances of returning to work after stroke increases as the size of enterprise increases. Preventive efforts and research aimed at finding ways of mitigating the effect are warranted.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1978-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of obtaining numerically maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions. In recent literature, a certain successive-approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, was shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, we introduce a general iterative procedure, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. We show that, with probability 1 as the sample size grows large, this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. We also show that the step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the 'separation' of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1976-01-01

The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

Validation of a food quantification picture book and portion sizes estimation applying perception and memory methods.

PubMed

Szenczi-Cseh, J; Horváth, Zs; Ambrus, Á

2017-12-01

We tested the applicability of EPIC-SOFT food picture series used in the context of a Hungarian food consumption survey gathering data for exposure assessment, and investigated errors in food portion estimation resulted from the visual perception and conceptualisation-memory. Sixty-two participants in three age groups (10 to <74 years) were presented with three different portion sizes of five foods. The results were considered acceptable if the relative difference between average estimated and actual weight obtained through the perception method was ≤25%, and the relative standard deviation of the individual weight estimates was <30% after compensating the effect of potential outliers with winsorisation. Picture series for all five food items were rated acceptable. Small portion sizes were tended to be overestimated, large ones were tended to be underestimated. Portions of boiled potato and creamed spinach were all over- and underestimated, respectively. Recalling the portion sizes resulted in overestimation with larger differences (up to 60.7%).

Estimating Effects of Species Interactions on Populations of Endangered Species.

PubMed

Roth, Tobias; Bühler, Christoph; Amrhein, Valentin

2016-04-01

Global change causes community composition to change considerably through time, with ever-new combinations of interacting species. To study the consequences of newly established species interactions, one available source of data could be observational surveys from biodiversity monitoring. However, approaches using observational data would need to account for niche differences between species and for imperfect detection of individuals. To estimate population sizes of interacting species, we extended N-mixture models that were developed to estimate true population sizes in single species. Simulations revealed that our model is able to disentangle direct effects of dominant on subordinate species from indirect effects of dominant species on detection probability of subordinate species. For illustration, we applied our model to data from a Swiss amphibian monitoring program and showed that sizes of expanding water frog populations were negatively related to population sizes of endangered yellow-bellied toads and common midwife toads and partly of natterjack toads. Unlike other studies that analyzed presence and absence of species, our model suggests that the spread of water frogs in Central Europe is one of the reasons for the decline of endangered toad species. Thus, studying population impacts of dominant species on population sizes of endangered species using data from biodiversity monitoring programs should help to inform conservation policy and to decide whether competing species should be subject to population management.

Family size and effective population size in a hatchery stock of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simon, R.C.; McIntyre, J.D.; Hemmingsen, A.R.

1986-01-01

Means and variances of family size measured in five year-classes of wire-tagged coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) were linearly related. Population effective size was calculated by using estimated means and variances of family size in a 25-yr data set. Although numbers of age 3 adults returning to the hatchery appeared to be large enough to avoid inbreeding problems (the 25-yr mean exceeded 4500), the numbers actually contributing to the hatchery production may be too low. Several strategies are proposed to correct the problem perceived. Argument is given to support the contention that the problem of effective size is fairly general and is not confined to the present study population.

The Quantity-Quality Trade-Off of Children in a Developing Country: Identification Using Chinese Twins

PubMed Central

LI, HONGBIN; ZHANG, JUNSEN; ZHU, YI

2008-01-01

Testing the trade-off between child quantity and quality within a family is complicated by the endogeneity of family size. Using data from the Chinese Population Census, we examine the effect of family size on child educational attainment in China. We find a negative correlation between family size and child outcome, even after we control for the birth order effect. We then instrument family size by the exogenous variation that is induced by a twin birth and find a negative effect of family size on children’s education. We also find that the effect of family size is more evident in rural China, where the public education system is poor. Given that our estimates of the effect of having twins on nontwins at least provide the lower bound of the true effect of family size, these findings suggest a quantity-quality trade-off for children in developing countries. PMID:18390301

The quantity-quality trade-off of children in a developing country: identification using Chinese twins.

PubMed

Li, Hongbin; Zhang, Junsen; Zhu, Yi

2008-02-01

Testing the trade-off between child quantity and quality within a family is complicated by the endogeneity of family size. Using data from the Chinese Population Census, we examine the effect of family size on child educational attainment in China. We find a negative correlation between family size and child outcome, even after we control for the birth order effect. We then instrument family size by the exogenous variation that is induced by a twin birth and find a negative effect offamily size on children's education. We also find that the effect of family size is more evident in rural China, where the public education system is poor. Given that our estimates of the effect of having twins on nontwins at least provide the lower bound of the true effect of family size, these findings suggest a quantity-quality trade-off for children in developing countries.

Comparing Single Case Design Overlap-Based Effect Size Metrics From Studies Examining Speech Generating Device Interventions

PubMed Central

Chen, Mo; Hyppa-Martin, Jolene K.; Reichle, Joe E.; Symons, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Meaningfully synthesizing single case experimental data from intervention studies comprised of individuals with low incidence conditions and generating effect size estimates remains challenging. Seven effect size metrics were compared for single case design (SCD) data focused on teaching speech generating device use to individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) with moderate to profound levels of impairment. The effect size metrics included percent of data points exceeding the median (PEM), percent of nonoverlapping data (PND), improvement rate difference (IRD), percent of all nonoverlapping data (PAND), Phi, nonoverlap of all pairs (NAP), and Taunovlap. Results showed that among the seven effect size metrics, PAND, Phi, IRD, and PND were more effective in quantifying intervention effects for the data sample (N = 285 phase or condition contrasts). Results are discussed with respect to issues concerning extracting and calculating effect sizes, visual analysis, and SCD intervention research in IDD. PMID:27119210

Detecting past changes of effective population size

PubMed Central

Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

2014-01-01

Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

Head circumference and brain size in autism spectrum disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sacco, Roberto; Gabriele, Stefano; Persico, Antonio M

2015-11-30

Macrocephaly and brain overgrowth have been associated with autism spectrum disorder. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide an overall estimate of effect size and statistical significance for both head circumference and total brain volume in autism. Our literature search strategy identified 261 and 391 records, respectively; 27 studies defining percentages of macrocephalic patients and 44 structural brain imaging studies providing total brain volumes for patients and controls were included in our meta-analyses. Head circumference was significantly larger in autistic compared to control individuals, with 822/5225 (15.7%) autistic individuals displaying macrocephaly. Structural brain imaging studies measuring brain volume estimated effect size. The effect size is higher in low functioning autistics compared to high functioning and ASD individuals. Brain overgrowth was recorded in 142/1558 (9.1%) autistic patients. Finally, we found a significant interaction between age and total brain volume, resulting in larger head circumference and brain size during early childhood. Our results provide conclusive effect sizes and prevalence rates for macrocephaly and brain overgrowth in autism, confirm the variation of abnormal brain growth with age, and support the inclusion of this endophenotype in multi-biomarker diagnostic panels for clinical use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inferring the demographic history from DNA sequences: An importance sampling approach based on non-homogeneous processes.

PubMed

Ait Kaci Azzou, S; Larribe, F; Froda, S

2016-10-01

In Ait Kaci Azzou et al. (2015) we introduced an Importance Sampling (IS) approach for estimating the demographic history of a sample of DNA sequences, the skywis plot. More precisely, we proposed a new nonparametric estimate of a population size that changes over time. We showed on simulated data that the skywis plot can work well in typical situations where the effective population size does not undergo very steep changes. In this paper, we introduce an iterative procedure which extends the previous method and gives good estimates under such rapid variations. In the iterative calibrated skywis plot we approximate the effective population size by a piecewise constant function, whose values are re-estimated at each step. These piecewise constant functions are used to generate the waiting times of non homogeneous Poisson processes related to a coalescent process with mutation under a variable population size model. Moreover, the present IS procedure is based on a modified version of the Stephens and Donnelly (2000) proposal distribution. Finally, we apply the iterative calibrated skywis plot method to a simulated data set from a rapidly expanding exponential model, and we show that the method based on this new IS strategy correctly reconstructs the demographic history. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Precision of Effect Size Estimation From Published Psychological Research: Surveying Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Brand, Andrew; Bradley, Michael T

2016-02-01

Confidence interval ( CI) widths were calculated for reported Cohen's d standardized effect sizes and examined in two automated surveys of published psychological literature. The first survey reviewed 1,902 articles from Psychological Science. The second survey reviewed a total of 5,169 articles from across the following four APA journals: Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, and Developmental Psychology. The median CI width for d was greater than 1 in both surveys. Hence, CI widths were, as Cohen (1994) speculated, embarrassingly large. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that CI widths varied across psychological research areas and that CI widths were not discernably decreasing over time. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed along with ways of reducing the CI widths and thus improving precision of effect size estimation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

PubMed Central

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

Impact of early diagenesis and bulk particle grain size distribution on estimates of relative geomagnetic palaeointensity variations in sediments from Lama Lake, northern Central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowaczyk, Norbert R.; Harwart, Stefanie; Melles, Martin

2001-04-01

High-resolution analyses of rock magnetic and sedimentological parameters were conducted on an 11m long sediment core from Lama Lake, Northern Siberia, which encompasses the late Pleistocene and the Holocene epochs. The results reveal a strong link between the median grain size of the magnetic particles, identified as magnetite, and the oxidation state of the sediment. Reducing conditions associated with a relative high total organic carbon (TOC) content of the sediment characterize the upper 7m of the core (~Holocene), and these have led to a partial dissolution of detrital magnetite grains, and a homogenization of grain-size-related rock magnetic parameters. The anoxic sediments are characterized by significantly larger median magnetic grain sizes, as indicated, for example, by lower median destructive fields of the natural remanent magnetization (MDFNRM) and lower ratios of saturation remanence to saturation magnetization (MSR/MS). Consequently, estimates of relative geomagnetic palaeointensity variations yielded large amplitude shifts associated with anoxic/oxic boundaries. Despite the partial reductive dissolution of magnetic particles within the anoxic section, and consequent minimal variations in magnetic concentration and grain size, palaeointensity estimates for this part of the core were still lithologically distorted by the effects of particle size (and subsidiary TOC) variations. Anomalously high values coincide with an interval of significantly more fine-grained sediment, which is also associated with a decrease in TOC content, which may thus imply a decreased level of magnetite dissolution in this interval. Calculation of relative palaeointensity estimates therefore seems to be compromised by a combined effect of shifts in the particle size distribution of the bulk sediment and by partial magnetite dissolution varying in association with the TOC content of the sediment.

Children and Careers: How Family Size Affects Parents' Labor Market Outcomes in the Long Run.

PubMed

Cools, Sara; Markussen, Simen; Strøm, Marte

2017-10-01

We estimate the effect of family size on various measures of labor market outcomes over the whole career until retirement, using instrumental variables estimation in data from Norwegian administrative registers. Parents' number of children is instrumented with the sex mix of their first two children. We find that having additional children causes sizable reductions in labor supply for women, which fade as children mature and even turn positive for women without a college degree. Among women with a college degree, there is evidence of persistent and even increasing career penalties of family size. Having additional children reduces these women's probability of being employed by higher-paying firms, their earnings rank within the employing firm, and their probability of being the top earner at the workplace. Some of the career effects persist long after labor supply is restored. We find no effect of family size on any of men's labor market outcomes in either the short or long run.

Effect of Study Design on Sample Size in Studies Intended to Evaluate Bioequivalence of Inhaled Short-Acting β-Agonist Formulations.

PubMed

Zeng, Yaohui; Singh, Sachinkumar; Wang, Kai; Ahrens, Richard C

2018-04-01

Pharmacodynamic studies that use methacholine challenge to assess bioequivalence of generic and innovator albuterol formulations are generally designed per published Food and Drug Administration guidance, with 3 reference doses and 1 test dose (3-by-1 design). These studies are challenging and expensive to conduct, typically requiring large sample sizes. We proposed 14 modified study designs as alternatives to the Food and Drug Administration-recommended 3-by-1 design, hypothesizing that adding reference and/or test doses would reduce sample size and cost. We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate sample size. Simulation inputs were selected based on published studies and our own experience with this type of trial. We also estimated effects of these modified study designs on study cost. Most of these altered designs reduced sample size and cost relative to the 3-by-1 design, some decreasing cost by more than 40%. The most effective single study dose to add was 180 μg of test formulation, which resulted in an estimated 30% relative cost reduction. Adding a single test dose of 90 μg was less effective, producing only a 13% cost reduction. Adding a lone reference dose of either 180, 270, or 360 μg yielded little benefit (less than 10% cost reduction), whereas adding 720 μg resulted in a 19% cost reduction. Of the 14 study design modifications we evaluated, the most effective was addition of both a 90-μg test dose and a 720-μg reference dose (42% cost reduction). Combining a 180-μg test dose and a 720-μg reference dose produced an estimated 36% cost reduction. © 2017, The Authors. The Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Website Content Features Using Retrospective Pretest Methodology: An Experimental Test.

PubMed

Mueller, Christoph Emanuel

2015-06-01

In order to assess website content effectiveness (WCE), investigations have to be made into whether the reception of website contents leads to a change in the characteristics of website visitors or not. Because randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are not always the method of choice, researchers may have to follow other strategies such as using retrospective pretest methodology (RPM), a straightforward and easy-to-implement tool for estimating intervention effects. This article aims to introduce RPM in the context of website evaluation and test its viability under experimental conditions. Building on the idea that RCTs deliver unbiased estimates of the true causal effects of website content reception, I compared the performance of RPM with that of an RCT within the same study. Hence, if RPM provides effect estimates similar to those of the RCT, it can be considered a viable tool for assessing the effectiveness of the website content features under study. RPM was capable of delivering comparatively resilient estimates of the effects of a YouTube video and a text feature on knowledge and attitudes. With regard to all of the outcome variables considered, the differences between the sizes of the effects estimated by the RCT and RPM were not significant. Additionally, RPM delivered relatively accurate effect size estimates in most of the cases. Therefore, I conclude that RPM could be a viable alternative for assessing WCE in cases where RCTs are not the preferred method. © The Author(s) 2015.

Data-driven regions of interest for longitudinal change in frontotemporal lobar degeneration.

PubMed

Pankov, Aleksandr; Binney, Richard J; Staffaroni, Adam M; Kornak, John; Attygalle, Suneth; Schuff, Norbert; Weiner, Michael W; Kramer, Joel H; Dickerson, Bradford C; Miller, Bruce L; Rosen, Howard J

2016-01-01

Current research is investigating the potential utility of longitudinal measurement of brain structure as a marker of drug effect in clinical trials for neurodegenerative disease. Recent studies in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have shown that measurement of change in empirically derived regions of interest (ROIs) allows more reliable measurement of change over time compared with regions chosen a-priori based on known effects of AD on brain anatomy. Frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) is a devastating neurodegenerative disorder for which there are no approved treatments. The goal of this study was to identify an empirical ROI that maximizes the effect size for the annual rate of brain atrophy in FTLD compared with healthy age matched controls, and to estimate the effect size and associated power estimates for a theoretical study that would use change within this ROI as an outcome measure. Eighty six patients with FTLD were studied, including 43 who were imaged twice at 1.5 T and 43 at 3 T, along with 105 controls (37 imaged at 1.5 T and 67 at 3 T). Empirically-derived maps of change were generated separately for each field strength and included the bilateral insula, dorsolateral, medial and orbital frontal, basal ganglia and lateral and inferior temporal regions. The extent of regions included in the 3 T map was larger than that in the 1.5 T map. At both field strengths, the effect sizes for imaging were larger than for any clinical measures. At 3 T, the effect size for longitudinal change measured within the empirically derived ROI was larger than the effect sizes derived from frontal lobe, temporal lobe or whole brain ROIs. The effect size derived from the data-driven 1.5 T map was smaller than at 3 T, and was not larger than the effect size derived from a-priori ROIs. It was estimated that measurement of longitudinal change using 1.5 T MR systems requires approximately a 3-fold increase in sample size to obtain effect sizes equivalent to those seen at 3 T. While the results should be confirmed in additional datasets, these results indicate that empirically derived ROIs can reduce the number of subjects needed for a longitudinal study of drug effects in FTLD compared with a-priori ROIs. Field strength may have a significant impact on the utility of imaging for measuring longitudinal change.

Evolution of floral display in Eichhornia paniculata (Pontederiaceae): direct and correlated responses to selection on flower size and number.

PubMed

Worley, A C; Barrett, S C

2000-10-01

Trade-offs between flower size and number seem likely to influence the evolution of floral display and are an important assumption of several theoretical models. We assessed floral trade-offs by imposing two generations of selection on flower size and number in a greenhouse population of bee-pollinated Eichhornia paniculata. We established a control line and two replicate selection lines of 100 plants each for large flowers (S+), small flowers (S-), and many flowers per inflorescence (N+). We compared realized heritabilities and genetic correlations with estimates based on restricted-maximum-likelihood (REML) analysis of pedigrees. Responses to selection confirmed REML heritability estimates (flower size, h2 = 0.48; daily flower number, h2 = 0.10; total flower number, h2 = 0.23). Differences in nectar, pollen, and ovule production between S+ and S- lines supported an overall divergence in investment per flower. Both realized and REML estimates of the genetic correlation between daily and total flower number were r = 1.0. However, correlated responses to selection were inconsistent in their support of a trade-off. In both S- lines, correlated increases in flower number indicated a genetic correlation of r = -0.6 between flower size and number. In contrast, correlated responses in N+ and S+ lines were not significant, although flower size decreased in one N+ line. In addition, REML estimates of genetic correlations between flower size and number were positive, and did not differ from zero when variation in leaf area and age at first flowering were taken into account. These results likely reflect the combined effects of variation in genes controlling the resources available for flowering and genes with opposing effects on flower size and number. Our results suggest that the short-term evolution of floral display is not necessarily constrained by trade-offs between flower size and number, as is often assumed.

SU-E-J-188: Theoretical Estimation of Margin Necessary for Markerless Motion Tracking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patel, R; Block, A; Harkenrider, M

2015-06-15

Purpose: To estimate the margin necessary to adequately cover the target using markerless motion tracking (MMT) of lung lesions given the uncertainty in tracking and the size of the target. Methods: Simulations were developed in Matlab to determine the effect of tumor size and tracking uncertainty on the margin necessary to achieve adequate coverage of the target. For simplicity, the lung tumor was approximated by a circle on a 2D radiograph. The tumor was varied in size from a diameter of 0.1 − 30 mm in increments of 0.1 mm. From our previous studies using dual energy markerless motion tracking,more » we estimated tracking uncertainties in x and y to have a standard deviation of 2 mm. A Gaussian was used to simulate the deviation between the tracked location and true target location. For each size tumor, 100,000 deviations were randomly generated, the margin necessary to achieve at least 95% coverage 95% of the time was recorded. Additional simulations were run for varying uncertainties to demonstrate the effect of the tracking accuracy on the margin size. Results: The simulations showed an inverse relationship between tumor size and margin necessary to achieve 95% coverage 95% of the time using the MMT technique. The margin decreased exponentially with target size. An increase in tracking accuracy expectedly showed a decrease in margin size as well. Conclusion: In our clinic a 5 mm expansion of the internal target volume (ITV) is used to define the planning target volume (PTV). These simulations show that for tracking accuracies in x and y better than 2 mm, the margin required is less than 5 mm. This simple simulation can provide physicians with a guideline estimation for the margin necessary for use of MMT clinically based on the accuracy of their tracking and the size of the tumor.« less

Estimating the size of key populations at higher risk of HIV infection: a summary of experiences and lessons presented during a technical meeting on size estimation among key populations in Asian countries

PubMed Central

Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia; Zhao, Jinkou; Reddy, Amala; Seguy, Nicole

2014-01-01

Problem Size estimates of key populations at higher risk of HIV exposure are recognized as critical for understanding the trajectory of the HIV epidemic and planning and monitoring an effective response, especially for countries with concentrated and low epidemics such as those in Asia. Context To help countries estimate population sizes of key populations, global guidelines were updated in 2011 to reflect new technical developments and recent field experiences in applying these methods. Action In September 2013, a meeting of programme managers and experts experienced with population size estimates (PSE) for key populations was held for 13 Asian countries. This article summarizes the key results presented, shares practical lessons learnt and reviews the methodological approaches from implementing PSE in 13 countries. Lessons learnt It is important to build capacity to collect, analyse and use PSE data; establish a technical review group; and implement a transparent, well documented process. Countries should adapt global PSE guidelines and maintain operational definitions that are more relevant and useable for country programmes. Development of methods for non-venue-based key populations requires more investment and collaborative efforts between countries and among partners. PMID:25320676

Measuring an Effect Size from Dichotomized Data: Contrasted Results Whether Using a Correlation or an Odds Ratio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rousson, Valentin

2014-01-01

It is well known that dichotomizing continuous data has the effect to decrease statistical power when the goal is to test for a statistical association between two variables. Modern researchers however are focusing not only on statistical significance but also on an estimation of the "effect size" (i.e., the strength of association…

A Heuristic Probabilistic Approach to Estimating Size-Dependent Mobility of Nonuniform Sediment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldegiorgis, B. T.; Wu, F. C.; van Griensven, A.; Bauwens, W.

2017-12-01

Simulating the mechanism of bed sediment mobility is essential for modelling sediment dynamics. Despite the fact that many studies are carried out on this subject, they use complex mathematical formulations that are computationally expensive, and are often not easy for implementation. In order to present a simple and computationally efficient complement to detailed sediment mobility models, we developed a heuristic probabilistic approach to estimating the size-dependent mobilities of nonuniform sediment based on the pre- and post-entrainment particle size distributions (PSDs), assuming that the PSDs are lognormally distributed. The approach fits a lognormal probability density function (PDF) to the pre-entrainment PSD of bed sediment and uses the threshold particle size of incipient motion and the concept of sediment mixture to estimate the PSDs of the entrained sediment and post-entrainment bed sediment. The new approach is simple in physical sense and significantly reduces the complexity and computation time and resource required by detailed sediment mobility models. It is calibrated and validated with laboratory and field data by comparing to the size-dependent mobilities predicted with the existing empirical lognormal cumulative distribution function (CDF) approach. The novel features of the current approach are: (1) separating the entrained and non-entrained sediments by a threshold particle size, which is a modified critical particle size of incipient motion by accounting for the mixed-size effects, and (2) using the mixture-based pre- and post-entrainment PSDs to provide a continuous estimate of the size-dependent sediment mobility.

Estimating an Effect Size in One-Way Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steyn, H. S., Jr.; Ellis, S. M.

2009-01-01

When two or more univariate population means are compared, the proportion of variation in the dependent variable accounted for by population group membership is eta-squared. This effect size can be generalized by using multivariate measures of association, based on the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) statistics, to establish whether…

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

The Misdirection of Public Policy: Comparing and Combining Standardised Effect Sizes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Adrian

2017-01-01

Increased attention on "what works" in education has led to an emphasis on developing policy from evidence based on comparing and combining a particular statistical summary of intervention studies: the standardised effect size. It is assumed that this statistical summary provides an estimate of the educational impact of interventions and…

The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Fuentes, R; Olea, A; Aguilera, X; Nesse, H; Hyman, J M

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on the transmission dynamics and epidemic size as a function of the simulated control intensity levels and the timing of initiation of control interventions. Because no dengue outbreaks had been reported prior to 2002 in Easter Island, the 2002 epidemic provided a unique opportunity to estimate the basic reproduction number R0 during the initial epidemic phase, prior to the start of control interventions. We estimated R0 at 27.2 (95%CI: 14.8, 49.3). We found that the final epidemic size is highly sensitive to the timing of start of interventions. However, even when the control interventions start several weeks after the epidemic onset, reactive intervention efforts can have a significant impact on the final epidemic size. Our results indicate that the rapid implementation of control interventions can have a significant effect in reducing the epidemic size of dengue epidemics.

Knowledge level of effect size statistics, confidence intervals and meta-analysis in Spanish academic psychologists.

PubMed

Badenes-Ribera, Laura; Frias-Navarro, Dolores; Pascual-Soler, Marcos; Monterde-I-Bort, Héctor

2016-11-01

The statistical reform movement and the American Psychological Association (APA) defend the use of estimators of the effect size and its confidence intervals, as well as the interpretation of the clinical significance of the findings. A survey was conducted in which academic psychologists were asked about their behavior in designing and carrying out their studies. The sample was composed of 472 participants (45.8% men). The mean number of years as a university professor was 13.56 years (SD= 9.27). The use of effect-size estimators is becoming generalized, as well as the consideration of meta-analytic studies. However, several inadequate practices still persist. A traditional model of methodological behavior based on statistical significance tests is maintained, based on the predominance of Cohen’s d and the unadjusted R2/η2, which are not immune to outliers or departure from normality and the violations of statistical assumptions, and the under-reporting of confidence intervals of effect-size statistics. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving statistical practice.

See food diet? Cultural differences in estimating fullness and intake as a function of plate size.

PubMed

Peng, Mei; Adam, Sarah; Hautus, Michael J; Shin, Myoungju; Duizer, Lisa M; Yan, Huiquan

2017-10-01

Previous research has suggested that manipulations of plate size can have a direct impact on perception of food intake, measured by estimated fullness and intake. The present study, involving 570 individuals across Canada, China, Korea, and New Zealand, is the first empirical study to investigate cultural influences on perception of food portion as a function of plate size. The respondents viewed photographs of ten culturally diverse dishes presented on large (27 cm) and small (23 cm) plates, and then rated their estimated usual intake and expected fullness after consuming the dish, using 100-point visual analog scales. The data were analysed with a mixed-model ANCOVA controlling for individual BMI, liking and familiarity of the presented food. The results showed clear cultural differences: (1) manipulations of the plate size had no effect on the expected fullness or the estimated intake of the Chinese and Korean respondents, as opposed to significant effects in Canadians and New Zealanders (p < 0.05); (2) Canadian (88.91 ± 0.42) and New Zealanders (90.37 ± 0.41) reported significantly higher estimated intake ratings than Chinese (80.80 ± 0.38) or Korean (81.69 ± 0.44; p < 0.05), notwithstanding the estimated fullness ratings from the Western respondents were comparable or even higher than those from the Asian respondents. Overall, these findings, from a cultural perspective, support the notion that estimation of fullness and intake are learned through dining experiences, and highlight the importance of considering eating environments and contexts when assessing individual behaviours relating to food intake. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Change-in-ratio methods for estimating population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; McCullough, Dale R.; Barrett, Reginald H.

2002-01-01

Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods can provide an effective, low cost approach for estimating the size of wildlife populations. They rely on being able to observe changes in proportions of population subclasses that result from the removal of a known number of individuals from the population. These methods were first introduced in the 1940’s to estimate the size of populations with 2 subclasses under the assumption of equal subclass encounter probabilities. Over the next 40 years, closed population CIR models were developed to consider additional subclasses and use additional sampling periods. Models with assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time, rather than between subclasses, also received some attention. Recently, all of these CIR models have been shown to be special cases of a more general model. Under the general model, information from additional samples can be used to test assumptions about the encounter probabilities and to provide estimates of subclass sizes under relaxations of these assumptions. These developments have greatly extended the applicability of the methods. CIR methods are attractive because they do not require the marking of individuals, and subclass proportions often can be estimated with relatively simple sampling procedures. However, CIR methods require a carefully monitored removal of individuals from the population, and the estimates will be of poor quality unless the removals induce substantial changes in subclass proportions. In this paper, we review the state of the art for closed population estimation with CIR methods. Our emphasis is on the assumptions of CIR methods and on identifying situations where these methods are likely to be effective. We also identify some important areas for future CIR research.

Monitoring landscape metrics by point sampling: accuracy in estimating Shannon's diversity and edge density.

PubMed

Ramezani, Habib; Holm, Sören; Allard, Anna; Ståhl, Göran

2010-05-01

Environmental monitoring of landscapes is of increasing interest. To quantify landscape patterns, a number of metrics are used, of which Shannon's diversity, edge length, and density are studied here. As an alternative to complete mapping, point sampling was applied to estimate the metrics for already mapped landscapes selected from the National Inventory of Landscapes in Sweden (NILS). Monte-Carlo simulation was applied to study the performance of different designs. Random and systematic samplings were applied for four sample sizes and five buffer widths. The latter feature was relevant for edge length, since length was estimated through the number of points falling in buffer areas around edges. In addition, two landscape complexities were tested by applying two classification schemes with seven or 20 land cover classes to the NILS data. As expected, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimators decreased with increasing sample size. The estimators of both metrics were slightly biased, but the bias of Shannon's diversity estimator was shown to decrease when sample size increased. In the edge length case, an increasing buffer width resulted in larger bias due to the increased impact of boundary conditions; this effect was shown to be independent of sample size. However, we also developed adjusted estimators that eliminate the bias of the edge length estimator. The rates of decrease of RMSE with increasing sample size and buffer width were quantified by a regression model. Finally, indicative cost-accuracy relationships were derived showing that point sampling could be a competitive alternative to complete wall-to-wall mapping.

Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

PubMed

Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

2016-04-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

A robust measure of HIV-1 population turnover within chronically infected individuals.

PubMed

Achaz, G; Palmer, S; Kearney, M; Maldarelli, F; Mellors, J W; Coffin, J M; Wakeley, J

2004-10-01

A simple nonparameteric test for population structure was applied to temporally spaced samples of HIV-1 sequences from the gag-pol region within two chronically infected individuals. The results show that temporal structure can be detected for samples separated by about 22 months or more. The performance of the method, which was originally proposed to detect geographic structure, was tested for temporally spaced samples using neutral coalescent simulations. Simulations showed that the method is robust to variation in samples sizes and mutation rates, to the presence/absence of recombination, and that the power to detect temporal structure is high. By comparing levels of temporal structure in simulations to the levels observed in real data, we estimate the effective intra-individual population size of HIV-1 to be between 10(3) and 10(4) viruses, which is in agreement with some previous estimates. Using this estimate and a simple measure of sequence diversity, we estimate an effective neutral mutation rate of about 5 x 10(-6) per site per generation in the gag-pol region. The definition and interpretation of estimates of such "effective" population parameters are discussed.

Derivation and Application of a Global Albedo yielding an Optical Brightness To Physical Size Transformation Free of Systematic Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulrooney, Dr. Mark K.; Matney, Dr. Mark J.

2007-01-01

Orbital object data acquired via optical telescopes can play a crucial role in accurately defining the space environment. Radar systems probe the characteristics of small debris by measuring the reflected electromagnetic energy from an object of the same order of size as the wavelength of the radiation. This signal is affected by electrical conductivity of the bulk of the debris object, as well as its shape and orientation. Optical measurements use reflected solar radiation with wavelengths much smaller than the size of the objects. Just as with radar, the shape and orientation of an object are important, but we only need to consider the surface electrical properties of the debris material (i.e., the surface albedo), not the bulk electromagnetic properties. As a result, these two methods are complementary in that they measure somewhat independent physical properties to estimate the same thing, debris size. Short arc optical observations such as are typical of NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) give enough information to estimate an Assumed Circular Orbit (ACO) and an associated range. This information, combined with the apparent magnitude, can be used to estimate an "absolute" brightness (scaled to a fixed range and phase angle). This absolute magnitude is what is used to estimate debris size. However, the shape and surface albedo effects make the size estimates subject to systematic and random errors, such that it is impossible to ascertain the size of an individual object with any certainty. However, as has been shown with radar debris measurements, that does not preclude the ability to estimate the size distribution of a number of objects statistically. After systematic errors have been eliminated (range errors, phase function assumptions, photometry) there remains a random geometric albedo distribution that relates object size to absolute magnitude. Measurements by the LMT of a subset of tracked debris objects with sizes estimated from their radar cross sections indicate that the random variations in the albedo follow a log-normal distribution quite well. In addition, this distribution appears to be independent of object size over a considerable range in size. Note that this relation appears to hold for debris only, where the shapes and other properties are not primarily the result of human manufacture, but of random processes. With this information in hand, it now becomes possible to estimate the actual size distribution we are sampling from. We have identified two characteristics of the space debris population that make this process tractable and by extension have developed a methodology for performing the transformation.

Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

PubMed

Kaeuffer, R; Pontier, D; Devillard, S; Perrin, N

2004-02-01

A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

Finite-time and finite-size scalings in the evaluation of large-deviation functions: Numerical approach in continuous time.

PubMed

Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Nemoto, Takahiro; Lecomte, Vivien

2017-06-01

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their study, by means of simulating a large number of copies of the system, which are subjected to selection rules that favor the rare trajectories of interest. Such algorithms are plagued by finite simulation time and finite population size, effects that can render their use delicate. In this paper, we present a numerical approach which uses the finite-time and finite-size scalings of estimators of the large deviation functions associated to the distribution of rare trajectories. The method we propose allows one to extract the infinite-time and infinite-size limit of these estimators, which-as shown on the contact process-provides a significant improvement of the large deviation function estimators compared to the standard one.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Estimation of turbulent kinetic energy using 4D phase-contrast MRI: Effect of scan parameters and target vessel size.

PubMed

Ha, Hojin; Hwang, Dongha; Kim, Guk Bae; Kweon, Jihoon; Lee, Sang Joon; Baek, Jehyun; Kim, Young-Hak; Kim, Namkug; Yang, Dong Hyun

2016-07-01

Quantifying turbulence velocity fluctuation is important because it indicates the fluid energy dissipation of the blood flow, which is closely related to the pressure drop along the blood vessel. This study aims to evaluate the effects of scan parameters and the target vessel size of 4D phase-contrast (PC)-MRI on quantification of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). Comprehensive 4D PC-MRI measurements with various velocity-encoding (VENC), echo time (TE), and voxel size values were carried out to estimate TKE distribution in stenotic flow. The total TKE (TKEsum), maximum TKE (TKEmax), and background noise level (TKEnoise) were compared for each scan parameter. The feasibility of TKE estimation in small vessels was also investigated. Results show that the optimum VENC for stenotic flow with a peak velocity of 125cm/s was 70cm/s. Higher VENC values overestimated the TKEsum by up to six-fold due to increased TKEnoise, whereas lower VENC values (30cm/s) underestimated it by 57.1%. TE and voxel size did not significantly influence the TKEsum and TKEnoise, although the TKEmax significantly increased as the voxel size increased. TKE quantification in small-sized vessels (3-5-mm diameter) was feasible unless high-velocity turbulence caused severe phase dispersion in the reference image. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Size matters: insights from an allometric approach to evaluate control methods for invasive Australian Rhinella marina.

PubMed

Beaty, Lynne E; Salice, Christopher J

2013-10-01

Invasive species are costly and difficult to control. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of potential control measures, individual-based models uniquely parameterized to reflect the salient life-history characteristics of invasive species are useful. Using invasive Australian Rhinella marina as a case study, we constructed a cohort- and individual-based population simulation that incorporates growth and body size of terrestrial stages. We used this allometric approach to examine the efficacy of nontraditional control methods (i.e., tadpole alarm chemicals and native meat ants) that may have indirect effects on population dynamics mediated by effects on body size. We compared population estimates resulting from these control methods with traditional hand removal. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect that model parameters, specifically those associated with growth and body size, had on adult population estimates. Incremental increases in hand removal of adults and juveniles caused nonlinear decreases in adult population estimates, suggesting less return with increased investment in hand-removal efforts. Applying tadpole alarm chemicals or meat ants decreased adult population estimates on the same level as removing 15-25% of adults and juveniles by hand. The combined application of tadpole alarm chemicals and meat ants resulted in approximately 80% decrease in adult abundance, the largest of any applied control method. In further support of the nontraditional control methods, which greatly affected the metamorph stage, our model was most sensitive to changes in metamorph survival, juvenile survival, metamorph growth rate, and adult survival. Our results highlight the use and insights that can be gained from individual-based models that incorporate growth and body size and the potential success that nontraditional control methods could have in controlling established, invasive Rhinella marina populations.

Bayesian Estimation Supersedes the "t" Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kruschke, John K.

2013-01-01

Bayesian estimation for 2 groups provides complete distributions of credible values for the effect size, group means and their difference, standard deviations and their difference, and the normality of the data. The method handles outliers. The decision rule can accept the null value (unlike traditional "t" tests) when certainty in the estimate is…

Effects of finite spatial resolution on quantitative CBF images from dynamic PET

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phelps, M.E.; Huang, S.C.; Mahoney, D.K.

1985-05-01

The finite spatial resolution of PET causes the time-activity responses on pixels around the boundaries between gray and white matter regions to contain kinetic components from tissues of different CBF's. CBF values estimated from kinetics of such mixtures are underestimated because of the nonlinear relationship between the time-activity response and the estimated CBF. Computer simulation is used to investigate these effects on phantoms of circular structures and realistic brain slice in terms of object size and quantitative CBF values. The CBF image calculated is compared to the case of having resolution loss alone. Results show that the size of amore » high flow region in the CBF image is decreased while that of a low flow region is increased. For brain phantoms, the qualitative appearance of CBF images is not seriously affected, but the estimated CBF's are underestimated by 11 to 16 percent in local gray matter regions (of size 1 cm/sup 2/) with about 14 percent reduction in global CBF over the whole slice. It is concluded that the combined effect of finite spatial resolution and the nonlinearity in estimating CBF from dynamic PET is quite significant and must be considered in processing and interpreting quantitative CBF images.« less

Non-parametric methods for cost-effectiveness analysis: the central limit theorem and the bootstrap compared.

PubMed

Nixon, Richard M; Wonderling, David; Grieve, Richard D

2010-03-01

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) alongside randomised controlled trials commonly estimate incremental net benefits (INB), with 95% confidence intervals, and compute cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and confidence ellipses. Two alternative non-parametric methods for estimating INB are to apply the central limit theorem (CLT) or to use the non-parametric bootstrap method, although it is unclear which method is preferable. This paper describes the statistical rationale underlying each of these methods and illustrates their application with a trial-based CEA. It compares the sampling uncertainty from using either technique in a Monte Carlo simulation. The experiments are repeated varying the sample size and the skewness of costs in the population. The results showed that, even when data were highly skewed, both methods accurately estimated the true standard errors (SEs) when sample sizes were moderate to large (n>50), and also gave good estimates for small data sets with low skewness. However, when sample sizes were relatively small and the data highly skewed, using the CLT rather than the bootstrap led to slightly more accurate SEs. We conclude that while in general using either method is appropriate, the CLT is easier to implement, and provides SEs that are at least as accurate as the bootstrap. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dispersal and population state of an endangered island lizard following a conservation translocation.

PubMed

Angeli, Nicole F; Lundgren, Ian F; Pollock, Clayton G; Hillis-Starr, Zandy M; Fitzgerald, Lee A

2018-03-01

Population size is widely used as a unit of ecological analysis, yet to estimate population size requires accounting for observed and latent heterogeneity influencing dispersion of individuals across landscapes. In newly established populations, such as when animals are translocated for conservation, dispersal and availability of resources influence patterns of abundance. We developed a process to estimate population size using N-mixture models and spatial models for newly established and dispersing populations. We used our approach to estimate the population size of critically endangered St. Croix ground lizards (Ameiva polops) five years after translocation of 57 individuals to Buck Island, an offshore island of St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands. Estimates of population size incorporated abiotic variables, dispersal limits, and operative environmental temperature available to the lizards to account for low species detection. Operative environmental temperature and distance from the translocation site were always important in fitting the N-mixture model indicating effects of dispersal and species biology on estimates of population size. We found that the population is increasing its range across the island by 5-10% every six months. We spatially interpolated site-specific abundance from the N-mixture model to the entire island, and we estimated 1,473 (95% CI, 940-1,802) St. Croix ground lizards on Buck Island in 2013 corresponding to survey results. This represents a 26-fold increase since the translocation. We predicted the future dispersal of the lizards to all habitats on Buck Island, with the potential for the population to increase by another five times in the future. Incorporating biologically relevant covariates as explicit parameters in population models can improve predictions of population size and the future spread of species introduced to new localities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Phonological skills and their role in learning to read: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Melby-Lervåg, Monica; Lyster, Solveig-Alma Halaas; Hulme, Charles

2012-03-01

The authors report a systematic meta-analytic review of the relationships among 3 of the most widely studied measures of children's phonological skills (phonemic awareness, rime awareness, and verbal short-term memory) and children's word reading skills. The review included both extreme group studies and correlational studies with unselected samples (235 studies were included, and 995 effect sizes were calculated). Results from extreme group comparisons indicated that children with dyslexia show a large deficit on phonemic awareness in relation to typically developing children of the same age (pooled effect size estimate: -1.37) and children matched on reading level (pooled effect size estimate: -0.57). There were significantly smaller group deficits on both rime awareness and verbal short-term memory (pooled effect size estimates: rime skills in relation to age-matched controls, -0.93, and reading-level controls, -0.37; verbal short-term memory skills in relation to age-matched controls, -0.71, and reading-level controls, -0.09). Analyses of studies of unselected samples showed that phonemic awareness was the strongest correlate of individual differences in word reading ability and that this effect remained reliable after controlling for variations in both verbal short-term memory and rime awareness. These findings support the pivotal role of phonemic awareness as a predictor of individual differences in reading development. We discuss whether such a relationship is a causal one and the implications of research in this area for current approaches to the teaching of reading and interventions for children with reading difficulties.

Does stereotype threat influence performance of girls in stereotyped domains? A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Flore, Paulette C; Wicherts, Jelte M

2015-02-01

Although the effect of stereotype threat concerning women and mathematics has been subject to various systematic reviews, none of them have been performed on the sub-population of children and adolescents. In this meta-analysis we estimated the effects of stereotype threat on performance of girls on math, science and spatial skills (MSSS) tests. Moreover, we studied publication bias and four moderators: test difficulty, presence of boys, gender equality within countries, and the type of control group that was used in the studies. We selected study samples when the study included girls, samples had a mean age below 18years, the design was (quasi-)experimental, the stereotype threat manipulation was administered between-subjects, and the dependent variable was a MSSS test related to a gender stereotype favoring boys. To analyze the 47 effect sizes, we used random effects and mixed effects models. The estimated mean effect size equaled -0.22 and significantly differed from 0. None of the moderator variables was significant; however, there were several signs for the presence of publication bias. We conclude that publication bias might seriously distort the literature on the effects of stereotype threat among schoolgirls. We propose a large replication study to provide a less biased effect size estimate. Copyright © 2014 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the accuracy of burn-surface estimation.

PubMed

Nichter, L S; Williams, J; Bryant, C A; Edlich, R F

1985-09-01

A user-friendly computer-assisted method of calculating total body surface area burned (TBSAB) has been developed. This method is more accurate, faster, and subject to less error than conventional methods. For comparison, the ability of 30 physicians to estimate TBSAB was tested. Parameters studied included the effect of prior burn care experience, the influence of burn size, the ability to accurately sketch the size of burns on standard burn charts, and the ability to estimate percent TBSAB from the sketches. Despite the ability for physicians of all levels of training to accurately sketch TBSAB, significant burn size over-estimation (p less than 0.01) and large interrater variability of potential consequence was noted. Direct benefits of a computerized system are many. These include the need for minimal user experience and the ability for wound-trend analysis, permanent record storage, calculation of fluid and caloric requirements, hemodynamic parameters, and the ability to compare meaningfully the different treatment protocols.

Experiments with central-limit properties of spatial samples from locally covariant random fields

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barringer, T.H.; Smith, T.E.

1992-01-01

When spatial samples are statistically dependent, the classical estimator of sample-mean standard deviation is well known to be inconsistent. For locally dependent samples, however, consistent estimators of sample-mean standard deviation can be constructed. The present paper investigates the sampling properties of one such estimator, designated as the tau estimator of sample-mean standard deviation. In particular, the asymptotic normality properties of standardized sample means based on tau estimators are studied in terms of computer experiments with simulated sample-mean distributions. The effects of both sample size and dependency levels among samples are examined for various value of tau (denoting the size of the spatial kernel for the estimator). The results suggest that even for small degrees of spatial dependency, the tau estimator exhibits significantly stronger normality properties than does the classical estimator of standardized sample means. ?? 1992.

Data and methods to estimate fetal dose from fluoroscopically guided prophylactic hypogastric artery balloon occlusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Solomou, G.; Stratakis, J.; Perisinakis, K.

Purpose: To provide data for estimation of fetal radiation dose (D{sub F}) from prophylactic hypogastric artery balloon occlusion (HABO) procedures. Methods: The Monte-Carlo-N-particle (MCNP) transport code and mathematical phantoms representing a pregnant patient at the ninth month of gestation were employed. PA, RAO 20° and LAO 20° fluoroscopy projections of left and right internal iliac arteries were simulated. Projection-specific normalized fetal dose (NFD) data were produced for various beam qualities. The effects of projection angle, x-ray field location relative to the fetus, field size, maternal body size, and fetal size on NFD were investigated. Presented NFD values were compared tomore » corresponding values derived using a physical anthropomorphic phantom simulating pregnancy at the third trimester and thermoluminescence dosimeters. Results: NFD did not considerably vary when projection angle was altered by ±5°, whereas it was found to markedly depend on tube voltage, filtration, x-ray field location and size, and maternal body size. Differences in NFD < 7.5% were observed for naturally expected variations in fetal size. A difference of less than 13.5% was observed between NFD values estimated by MCNP and direct measurements. Conclusions: Data and methods provided allow for reliable estimation of radiation burden to the fetus from HABO.« less

Comparison of statistical models to estimate parasite growth rate in the induced blood stage malaria model.

PubMed

Wockner, Leesa F; Hoffmann, Isabell; O'Rourke, Peter; McCarthy, James S; Marquart, Louise

2017-08-25

The efficacy of vaccines aimed at inhibiting the growth of malaria parasites in the blood can be assessed by comparing the growth rate of parasitaemia in the blood of subjects treated with a test vaccine compared to controls. In studies using induced blood stage malaria (IBSM), a type of controlled human malaria infection, parasite growth rate has been measured using models with the intercept on the y-axis fixed to the inoculum size. A set of statistical models was evaluated to determine an optimal methodology to estimate parasite growth rate in IBSM studies. Parasite growth rates were estimated using data from 40 subjects published in three IBSM studies. Data was fitted using 12 statistical models: log-linear, sine-wave with the period either fixed to 48 h or not fixed; these models were fitted with the intercept either fixed to the inoculum size or not fixed. All models were fitted by individual, and overall by study using a mixed effects model with a random effect for the individual. Log-linear models and sine-wave models, with the period fixed or not fixed, resulted in similar parasite growth rate estimates (within 0.05 log 10 parasites per mL/day). Average parasite growth rate estimates for models fitted by individual with the intercept fixed to the inoculum size were substantially lower by an average of 0.17 log 10 parasites per mL/day (range 0.06-0.24) compared with non-fixed intercept models. Variability of parasite growth rate estimates across the three studies analysed was substantially higher (3.5 times) for fixed-intercept models compared with non-fixed intercept models. The same tendency was observed in models fitted overall by study. Modelling data by individual or overall by study had minimal effect on parasite growth estimates. The analyses presented in this report confirm that fixing the intercept to the inoculum size influences parasite growth estimates. The most appropriate statistical model to estimate the growth rate of blood-stage parasites in IBSM studies appears to be a log-linear model fitted by individual and with the intercept estimated in the log-linear regression. Future studies should use this model to estimate parasite growth rates.

Binary Logistic Regression Analysis for Detecting Differential Item Functioning: Effectiveness of R[superscript 2] and Delta Log Odds Ratio Effect Size Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hidalgo, Mª Dolores; Gómez-Benito, Juana; Zumbo, Bruno D.

2014-01-01

The authors analyze the effectiveness of the R[superscript 2] and delta log odds ratio effect size measures when using logistic regression analysis to detect differential item functioning (DIF) in dichotomous items. A simulation study was carried out, and the Type I error rate and power estimates under conditions in which only statistical testing…

Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

2015-01-01

Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

Critical Parameters of the Initiation Zone for Spontaneous Dynamic Rupture Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galis, M.; Pelties, C.; Kristek, J.; Moczo, P.; Ampuero, J. P.; Mai, P. M.

2014-12-01

Numerical simulations of rupture propagation are used to study both earthquake source physics and earthquake ground motion. Under linear slip-weakening friction, artificial procedures are needed to initiate a self-sustained rupture. The concept of an overstressed asperity is often applied, in which the asperity is characterized by its size, shape and overstress. The physical properties of the initiation zone may have significant impact on the resulting dynamic rupture propagation. A trial-and-error approach is often necessary for successful initiation because 2D and 3D theoretical criteria for estimating the critical size of the initiation zone do not provide general rules for designing 3D numerical simulations. Therefore, it is desirable to define guidelines for efficient initiation with minimal artificial effects on rupture propagation. We perform an extensive parameter study using numerical simulations of 3D dynamic rupture propagation assuming a planar fault to examine the critical size of square, circular and elliptical initiation zones as a function of asperity overstress and background stress. For a fixed overstress, we discover that the area of the initiation zone is more important for the nucleation process than its shape. Comparing our numerical results with published theoretical estimates, we find that the estimates by Uenishi & Rice (2004) are applicable to configurations with low background stress and small overstress. None of the published estimates are consistent with numerical results for configurations with high background stress. We therefore derive new equations to estimate the initiation zone size in environments with high background stress. Our results provide guidelines for defining the size of the initiation zone and overstress with minimal effects on the subsequent spontaneous rupture propagation.

Moderating the Covariance Between Family Member’s Substance Use Behavior

PubMed Central

Eaves, Lindon J.; Neale, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Twin and family studies implicitly assume that the covariation between family members remains constant across differences in age between the members of the family. However, age-specificity in gene expression for shared environmental factors could generate higher correlations between family members who are more similar in age. Cohort effects (cohort × genotype or cohort × common environment) could have the same effects, and both potentially reduce effect sizes estimated in genome-wide association studies where the subjects are heterogeneous in age. In this paper we describe a model in which the covariance between twins and non-twin siblings is moderated as a function of age difference. We describe the details of the model and simulate data using a variety of different parameter values to demonstrate that model fitting returns unbiased parameter estimates. Power analyses are then conducted to estimate the sample sizes required to detect the effects of moderation in a design of twins and siblings. Finally, the model is applied to data on cigarette smoking. We find that (1) the model effectively recovers the simulated parameters, (2) the power is relatively low and therefore requires large sample sizes before small to moderate effect sizes can be found reliably, and (3) the genetic covariance between siblings for smoking behavior decays very rapidly. Result 3 implies that, e.g., genome-wide studies of smoking behavior that use individuals assessed at different ages, or belonging to different birth-year cohorts may have had substantially reduced power to detect effects of genotype on cigarette use. It also implies that significant special twin environmental effects can be explained by age-moderation in some cases. This effect likely contributes to the missing heritability paradox. PMID:24647834

Inference and sample size calculation for clinical trials with incomplete observations of paired binary outcomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Song; Cao, Jing; Ahn, Chul

2017-02-20

We investigate the estimation of intervention effect and sample size determination for experiments where subjects are supposed to contribute paired binary outcomes with some incomplete observations. We propose a hybrid estimator to appropriately account for the mixed nature of observed data: paired outcomes from those who contribute complete pairs of observations and unpaired outcomes from those who contribute either pre-intervention or post-intervention outcomes. We theoretically prove that if incomplete data are evenly distributed between the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods, the proposed estimator will always be more efficient than the traditional estimator. A numerical research shows that when the distribution of incomplete data is unbalanced, the proposed estimator will be superior when there is moderate-to-strong positive within-subject correlation. We further derive a closed-form sample size formula to help researchers determine how many subjects need to be enrolled in such studies. Simulation results suggest that the calculated sample size maintains the empirical power and type I error under various design configurations. We demonstrate the proposed method using a real application example. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

PubMed

Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

2016-06-01

Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic diversity ascribed to population differences within groups (F SC = 0.106). The results suggest that significant genetic erosion has occurred within the conservation flocks due to inbreeding, pronounced effects of random drift and selection. It might be necessary to introduce new breeding individuals from the respective field populations in order to increase the effective population sizes of the conservation flocks and counter the effects of genetic erosion.

Using simulation to aid trial design: Ring-vaccination trials.

PubMed

Hitchings, Matt David Thomas; Grais, Rebecca Freeman; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-03-01

The 2014-6 West African Ebola epidemic highlights the need for rigorous, rapid clinical trial methods for vaccines. A challenge for trial design is making sample size calculations based on incidence within the trial, total vaccine effect, and intracluster correlation, when these parameters are uncertain in the presence of indirect effects of vaccination. We present a stochastic, compartmental model for a ring vaccination trial. After identification of an index case, a ring of contacts is recruited and either vaccinated immediately or after 21 days. The primary outcome of the trial is total vaccine effect, counting cases only from a pre-specified window in which the immediate arm is assumed to be fully protected and the delayed arm is not protected. Simulation results are used to calculate necessary sample size and estimated vaccine effect. Under baseline assumptions about vaccine properties, monthly incidence in unvaccinated rings and trial design, a standard sample-size calculation neglecting dynamic effects estimated that 7,100 participants would be needed to achieve 80% power to detect a difference in attack rate between arms, while incorporating dynamic considerations in the model increased the estimate to 8,900. This approach replaces assumptions about parameters at the ring level with assumptions about disease dynamics and vaccine characteristics at the individual level, so within this framework we were able to describe the sensitivity of the trial power and estimated effect to various parameters. We found that both of these quantities are sensitive to properties of the vaccine, to setting-specific parameters over which investigators have little control, and to parameters that are determined by the study design. Incorporating simulation into the trial design process can improve robustness of sample size calculations. For this specific trial design, vaccine effectiveness depends on properties of the ring vaccination design and on the measurement window, as well as the epidemiologic setting.

Preparation and optical characteristics of ZnSe nanocrystals doped glass by sol gel in situ crystallization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Haiyan; Yao, Xi; Wang, Minqiang

2007-01-01

Homogeneous ZnSe nanocrystals doped SiO 2 glass was successfully prepared by sol-gel in situ crystallization method. The structure of the doped ZnSe nanocrystals was studied by X-ray diffraction (XRD). ZnSe nanocrystals in silica were about 4-10 nm analysed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), which was consistent with the results of XRD estimated using Scherrer's formular. The quantum size effect in ZnSe nanocrystals was evidenced from the blue-shifts of the optical absorption edge, and the average size of ZnSe nanocrystals was estimated by the magnitude of blue shift according to the L.E. Brus' effective mass model. The size of ZnSe nanocrystals depending on annealing time and temperature was further discussed using XRF.

Low central venous pressure versus acute normovolemic hemodilution versus conventional fluid management for reducing blood loss in radical retropubic prostatectomy: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Habib, Ashraf S; Moul, Judd W; Polascik, Thomas J; Robertson, Cary N; Roche, Anthony M; White, William D; Hill, Stephen E; Nosnick, Israel; Gan, Tong J

2014-05-01

To compare acute normovolemic hemodilution versus low central venous pressure strategy versus conventional fluid management in reducing intraoperative estimated blood loss, hematocrit drop and need for blood transfusion in patients undergoing radical retropubic prostatectomy under general anesthesia. Patients undergoing radical retropubic prostatectomy under general anesthesia were randomized to conventional fluid management, acute normovolemic hemodilution or low central venous pressure (≤5 mmHg). Treatment effects on estimated blood loss and hematocrit change were tested in multivariable regression models accounting for surgeon, prostate size, and all two-way interactions. Ninety-two patients completed the study. Estimated blood loss (mean ± SD) was significantly lower with low central venous pressure (706 ± 362 ml) compared to acute normovolemic hemodilution (1103 ± 635 ml) and conventional (1051 ± 714 ml) groups (p = 0.0134). There was no difference between the groups in need for blood transfusion, or hematocrit drop from preoperative values. The multivariate model predicting estimated blood loss showed a significant effect of treatment (p = 0.0028) and prostate size (p = 0.0323), accounting for surgeon (p = 0.0013). In the model predicting hematocrit change, accounting for surgeon difference (p = 0.0037), the treatment effect depended on prostate size (p = 0.0007) with the slope of low central venous pressure differing from the other two groups. Hematocrit was predicted to drop more with increased prostate size in acute normovolemic hemodilution and conventional groups but not with low central venous pressure. Limitations include the inability to blind providers to group assignment, possible variability between providers in estimation of blood loss, and the relatively small sample size that was not powered to detect differences between the groups in need for blood transfusion. Maintaining low central venous pressure reduced estimated blood loss compared to conventional fluid management and acute normovolemic hemodilution in patients undergoing radical retropubic prostatectomy but there was no difference in allogeneic blood transfusion between the groups.

Patient-based estimation of organ dose for a population of 58 adult patients across 13 protocol categories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sahbaee, Pooyan, E-mail: psahbae@ncsu.edu; Segars, W. Paul; Samei, Ehsan

2014-07-15

Purpose: This study aimed to provide a comprehensive patient-specific organ dose estimation across a multiplicity of computed tomography (CT) examination protocols. Methods: A validated Monte Carlo program was employed to model a common CT system (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare). The organ and effective doses were estimated from 13 commonly used body and neurological CT examination. The dose estimation was performed on 58 adult computational extended cardiac-torso phantoms (35 male, 23 female, mean age 51.5 years, mean weight 80.2 kg). The organ dose normalized by CTDI{sub vol} (h factor) and effective dose normalized by the dose length product (DLP) (k factor)more » were calculated from the results. A mathematical model was derived for the correlation between the h and k factors with the patient size across the protocols. Based on this mathematical model, a dose estimation iPhone operating system application was designed and developed to be used as a tool to estimate dose to the patients for a variety of routinely used CT examinations. Results: The organ dose results across all the protocols showed an exponential decrease with patient body size. The correlation was generally strong for the organs which were fully or partially located inside the scan coverage (Pearson sample correlation coefficient (r) of 0.49). The correlation was weaker for organs outside the scan coverage for which distance between the organ and the irradiation area was a stronger predictor of dose to the organ. For body protocols, the effective dose before and after normalization by DLP decreased exponentially with increasing patient's body diameter (r > 0.85). The exponential relationship between effective dose and patient's body diameter was significantly weaker for neurological protocols (r < 0.41), where the trunk length was a slightly stronger predictor of effective dose (0.15 < r < 0.46). Conclusions: While the most accurate estimation of a patient dose requires specific modeling of the patient anatomy, a first order approximation of organ and effective doses from routine CT scan protocols can be reasonably estimated using size specific factors. Estimation accuracy is generally poor for organ outside the scan range and for neurological protocols. The dose calculator designed in this study can be used to conveniently estimate and report the dose values for a patient across a multiplicity of CT scan protocols.« less

Effect Sizes and their Intervals: The Two-Level Repeated Measures Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2005-01-01

Probability coverage for eight different confidence intervals (CIs) of measures of effect size (ES) in a two-level repeated measures design was investigated. The CIs and measures of ES differed with regard to whether they used least squares or robust estimates of central tendency and variability, whether the end critical points of the interval…

A Comparison of Uniform DIF Effect Size Estimators under the MIMIC and Rasch Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jin, Ying; Myers, Nicholas D.; Ahn, Soyeon; Penfield, Randall D.

2013-01-01

The Rasch model, a member of a larger group of models within item response theory, is widely used in empirical studies. Detection of uniform differential item functioning (DIF) within the Rasch model typically employs null hypothesis testing with a concomitant consideration of effect size (e.g., signed area [SA]). Parametric equivalence between…

Choosing Assessment Instruments for Depression Outcome Research with School-Age Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muller, Brooke E.; Erford, Bradley T.

2012-01-01

Using effect size results from Erford et al.'s (2011) meta-analysis for treatment of depression in school-age youth, the authors analyzed 6 commonly used instruments for practical and technical strengths and weaknesses. Effect size estimates from these 6 instruments were compared to indicate likely results when used in future depression outcome…

Effect Sizes for Growth-Modeling Analysis for Controlled Clinical Trials in the Same Metric as for Classical Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feingold, Alan

2009-01-01

The use of growth-modeling analysis (GMA)--including hierarchical linear models, latent growth models, and general estimating equations--to evaluate interventions in psychology, psychiatry, and prevention science has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, an effect size associated with the difference between the trajectories of the…

Variation in polyp size estimation among endoscopists and impact on surveillance intervals.

PubMed

Chaptini, Louis; Chaaya, Adib; Depalma, Fedele; Hunter, Krystal; Peikin, Steven; Laine, Loren

2014-10-01

Accurate estimation of polyp size is important because it is used to determine the surveillance interval after polypectomy. To evaluate the variation and accuracy in polyp size estimation among endoscopists and the impact on surveillance intervals after polypectomy. Web-based survey. A total of 873 members of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Participants watched video recordings of 4 polypectomies and were asked to estimate the polyp sizes. Proportion of participants with polyp size estimates within 20% of the correct measurement and the frequency of incorrect surveillance intervals based on inaccurate size estimates. Polyp size estimates were within 20% of the correct value for 1362 (48%) of 2812 estimates (range 39%-59% for the 4 polyps). Polyp size was overestimated by >20% in 889 estimates (32%, range 15%-49%) and underestimated by >20% in 561 (20%, range 4%-46%) estimates. Incorrect surveillance intervals because of overestimation or underestimation occurred in 272 (10%) of the 2812 estimates (range 5%-14%). Participants in a private practice setting overestimated the size of 3 or of all 4 polyps by >20% more often than participants in an academic setting (difference = 7%; 95% confidence interval, 1%-11%). Survey design with the use of video clips. Substantial overestimation and underestimation of polyp size occurs with visual estimation leading to incorrect surveillance intervals in 10% of cases. Our findings support routine use of measurement tools to improve polyp size estimates. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A pilot randomized trial of two cognitive rehabilitation interventions for mild cognitive impairment: caregiver outcomes.

PubMed

Cuc, Andrea V; Locke, Dona E C; Duncan, Noah; Fields, Julie A; Snyder, Charlene Hoffman; Hanna, Sherrie; Lunde, Angela; Smith, Glenn E; Chandler, Melanie

2017-12-01

This study aims to provide effect size estimates of the impact of two cognitive rehabilitation interventions provided to patients with mild cognitive impairment: computerized brain fitness exercise and memory support system on support partners' outcomes of depression, anxiety, quality of life, and partner burden. A randomized controlled pilot trial was performed. At 6 months, the partners from both treatment groups showed stable to improved depression scores, while partners in an untreated control group showed worsening depression over 6 months. There were no statistically significant differences on anxiety, quality of life, or burden outcomes in this small pilot trial; however, effect sizes were moderate, suggesting that the sample sizes in this pilot study were not adequate to detect statistical significance. Either form of cognitive rehabilitation may help partners' mood, compared with providing no treatment. However, effect size estimates related to other partner outcomes (i.e., burden, quality of life, and anxiety) suggest that follow-up efficacy trials will need sample sizes of at least 30-100 people per group to accurately determine significance. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Software Size Estimation Using Expert Estimation: A Fuzzy Logic Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevenson, Glenn A.

2012-01-01

For decades software managers have been using formal methodologies such as the Constructive Cost Model and Function Points to estimate the effort of software projects during the early stages of project development. While some research shows these methodologies to be effective, many software managers feel that they are overly complicated to use and…

Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2009-02-01

Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

2012-01-01

GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mark-resight superpopulation estimation of a wintering elk Cervus elaphus canadensis herd

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, W.R.; Smallidge, S.T.; Thompson, B.C.

2005-01-01

We executed four mark-resight helicopter surveys during the winter months January-February for each of the three years 1999-2001 at 7-10 day intervals to estimate population size of a wintering elk Cervus elaphus canadensis herd in northern New Mexico. We counted numbers of radio-collared and uncollared elk on a simple random sample of quadrats from the study area. Because we were unable to survey the entire study area, we adopted a superpopulation approach to estimating population size, in which the total number of collared animals within and proximate to the entire study area was determined from an independent fixed-wing aircraft. The total number of collared animals available on the quadrats surveyed was also determined and facilitated detectability estimation. We executed superpopulation estimation via the joint hypergeometric estimator using the ratio of marked elk counted to the known number extant as an estimate of effective detectability. Superpopulation size estimates were approximately four times larger than previously suspected in the vicinity of the study area. Despite consistent survey methodology, actual detection rates varied within winter periods, indicating that multiple resight flights are important for improved estimator performance. Variable detectability also suggests that reliance on mere counts of observed individuals in our area may not accurately reflect abundance. ?? Wildlife Biology (2005).

Effect size and cost-effectiveness estimates of breast and cervical cancer screening reminders by population size through complete enumeration of Japanese local municipalities.

PubMed

Komoto, Shigekazu; Nishiwaki, Yuji; Okamura, Tomonori; Tanaka, Hideo; Takebayashi, Toru

2014-01-16

Client reminders are known to increase cancer screening attendance rates. However, there are significant costs associated with them, and their effect by population size is unknown. In 2007 and 2008, the Japanese Government surveyed breast and cervical cancer screening in every municipality in Japan. From the results, we selected all 1,464 municipalities that carried out both screening types. We examined whether changes in screening attendance rates between 2007 and 2008 were associated with client reminders, number of public health nurses per 100,000 population, financial strength index, and 2007 attendance rates for different population sizes. We then calculated cost-effectiveness estimates of client reminders by population size and screening type. Client reminders were associated with increased attendance rates in populations <100,000. For populations of 50,000-100,000, there was a 2.76% increase in breast cancer screening (95% CI: 0.41, 5.11), and a 2.25% increase in cervical cancer screening (95% CI: 0.89, 3.61). The incremental cost per additional attendance was higher in populations <50,000 than in populations of 50,000-100,000 (breast, $100 versus $54; cervical, $149 versus $67 respectively). Client reminders for breast and cervical cancer screening increased attendance rates in smaller municipalities in Japan.

Simulation-based power calculation for designing interrupted time series analyses of health policy interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2011-11-01

Interrupted time series is a strong quasi-experimental research design to evaluate the impacts of health policy interventions. Using simulation methods, we estimated the power requirements for interrupted time series studies under various scenarios. Simulations were conducted to estimate the power of segmented autoregressive (AR) error models when autocorrelation ranged from -0.9 to 0.9 and effect size was 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0, investigating balanced and unbalanced numbers of time periods before and after an intervention. Simple scenarios of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models were also explored. For AR models, power increased when sample size or effect size increased, and tended to decrease when autocorrelation increased. Compared with a balanced number of study periods before and after an intervention, designs with unbalanced numbers of periods had less power, although that was not the case for ARCH models. The power to detect effect size 1.0 appeared to be reasonable for many practical applications with a moderate or large number of time points in the study equally divided around the intervention. Investigators should be cautious when the expected effect size is small or the number of time points is small. We recommend conducting various simulations before investigation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CAPN1, CAST, and DGAT1 genetic effects on preweaning performance, carcass quality traits, and residual variance of tenderness in a beef cattle population selected for haplotype and allele equalization

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genetic marker effects and type of inheritance are estimated with poor precision when minor marker allele frequencies are low. A stable composite population (MARC III) was subjected to marker assisted selection for multiple years to equalize specific marker frequencies to 1) estimate effect size an...

µ-Calpain, calpastatin, and growth hormone receptor genetic effects on preweaning performance, carcass quality traits, and residual variance of tenderness in Angus cattle selected to increase minor haplotype ... frequencies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genetic marker effects and interactions are estimated with poor precision when minor marker allele frequencies are low. An Angus population was subjected to marker assisted selection for multiple years to increase divergent haplotype and minor marker allele frequencies to 1) estimate effect size an...

A model to estimate effects of SNPs on host susceptibility and infectivity for an endemic infectious disease.

PubMed

Biemans, Floor; de Jong, Mart C M; Bijma, Piter

2017-06-30

Infectious diseases in farm animals affect animal health, decrease animal welfare and can affect human health. Selection and breeding of host individuals with desirable traits regarding infectious diseases can help to fight disease transmission, which is affected by two types of (genetic) traits: host susceptibility and host infectivity. Quantitative genetic studies on infectious diseases generally connect an individual's disease status to its own genotype, and therefore capture genetic effects on susceptibility only. However, they usually ignore variation in exposure to infectious herd mates, which may limit the accuracy of estimates of genetic effects on susceptibility. Moreover, genetic effects on infectivity will exist as well. Thus, to design optimal breeding strategies, it is essential that genetic effects on infectivity are quantified. Given the potential importance of genetic effects on infectivity, we set out to develop a model to estimate the effect of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. To evaluate the quality of the resulting SNP effect estimates, we simulated an endemic disease in 10 groups of 100 individuals, and recorded time-series data on individual disease status. We quantified bias and precision of the estimates for different sizes of SNP effects, and identified the optimum recording interval when the number of records is limited. We present a generalized linear mixed model to estimate the effect of SNPs on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. SNP effects were on average slightly underestimated, i.e. estimates were conservative. Estimates were less precise for infectivity than for susceptibility. Given our sample size, the power to estimate SNP effects for susceptibility was 100% for differences between genotypes of a factor 1.56 or more, and was higher than 60% for infectivity for differences between genotypes of a factor 4 or more. When disease status was recorded 11 times on each animal, the optimal recording interval was 25 to 50% of the average infectious period. Our model was able to estimate genetic effects on susceptibility and infectivity. In future genome-wide association studies, it may serve as a starting point to identify genes that affect disease transmission and disease prevalence.

Revisiting sample size: are big trials the answer?

PubMed

Lurati Buse, Giovanna A L; Botto, Fernando; Devereaux, P J

2012-07-18

The superiority of the evidence generated in randomized controlled trials over observational data is not only conditional to randomization. Randomized controlled trials require proper design and implementation to provide a reliable effect estimate. Adequate random sequence generation, allocation implementation, analyses based on the intention-to-treat principle, and sufficient power are crucial to the quality of a randomized controlled trial. Power, or the probability of the trial to detect a difference when a real difference between treatments exists, strongly depends on sample size. The quality of orthopaedic randomized controlled trials is frequently threatened by a limited sample size. This paper reviews basic concepts and pitfalls in sample-size estimation and focuses on the importance of large trials in the generation of valid evidence.

Finite-size analysis of a continuous-variable quantum key distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leverrier, Anthony; Grosshans, Frederic; Grangier, Philippe

2010-06-15

The goal of this paper is to extend the framework of finite-size analysis recently developed for quantum key distribution to continuous-variable protocols. We do not solve this problem completely here, and we mainly consider the finite-size effects on the parameter estimation procedure. Despite the fact that some questions are left open, we are able to give an estimation of the secret key rate for protocols which do not contain a postselection procedure. As expected, these results are significantly more pessimistic than those obtained in the asymptotic regime. However, we show that recent continuous-variable protocols are able to provide fully securemore » secret keys in the finite-size scenario, over distances larger than 50 km.« less

Zero Benefit: Estimating the Effect of Zero Tolerance Discipline Polices on Racial Disparities in School Discipline

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, Stephen

2014-01-01

This study estimates the effect of zero tolerance disciplinary policies on racial disparities in school discipline in an urban district. Capitalizing on a natural experiment, the abrupt expansion of zero tolerance discipline policies in a mid-sized urban school district, the study demonstrates that Black students in the district were…

Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart; Kenneth P. Burnham; Erica H. Dunn; Charles M. Francis; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occurring within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also...

In Vitro and In Vivo Short-Term Pulmonary Toxicity of Differently Sized Colloidal Amorphous SiO2

PubMed Central

Wiemann, Martin; Sauer, Ursula G.; Vennemann, Antje; Bäcker, Sandra; Keller, Johannes-Georg; Ma-Hock, Lan; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

2018-01-01

In vitro prediction of inflammatory lung effects of well-dispersed nanomaterials is challenging. Here, the in vitro effects of four colloidal amorphous SiO2 nanomaterials that differed only by their primary particle size (9, 15, 30, and 55 nm) were analyzed using the rat NR8383 alveolar macrophage (AM) assay. Data were compared to effects of single doses of 15 nm and 55 nm SiO2 intratracheally instilled in rat lungs. In vitro, all four elicited the release of concentration-dependent lactate dehydrogenase, β-glucuronidase, and tumor necrosis factor alpha, and the two smaller materials also released H2O2. All effects were size-dependent. Since the colloidal SiO2 remained well-dispersed in serum-free in vitro conditions, effective particle concentrations reaching the cells were estimated using different models. Evaluating the effective concentration–based in vitro effects using the Decision-making framework for the grouping and testing of nanomaterials, all four nanomaterials were assigned as “active.” This assignment and the size dependency of effects were consistent with the outcomes of intratracheal instillation studies and available short-term rat inhalation data for 15 nm SiO2. The study confirms the applicability of the NR8383 AM assay to assessing colloidal SiO2 but underlines the need to estimate and consider the effective concentration of such well-dispersed test materials. PMID:29534009

Association between inaccurate estimation of body size and obesity in schoolchildren.

PubMed

Costa, Larissa da Cunha Feio; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Almeida, Sebastião de Sousa; de Vasconcelos, Francisco de Assis Guedes

2015-01-01

To investigate the prevalence of inaccurate estimation of own body size among Brazilian schoolchildren of both sexes aged 7-10 years, and to test whether overweight/obesity; excess body fat and central obesity are associated with inaccuracy. Accuracy of body size estimation was assessed using the Figure Rating Scale for Brazilian Children. Multinomial logistic regression was used to analyze associations. The overall prevalence of inaccurate body size estimation was 76%, with 34% of the children underestimating their body size and 42% overestimating their body size. Obesity measured by body mass index was associated with underestimation of body size in both sexes, while central obesity was only associated with overestimation of body size among girls. The results of this study suggest there is a high prevalence of inaccurate body size estimation and that inaccurate estimation is associated with obesity. Accurate estimation of own body size is important among obese schoolchildren because it may be the first step towards adopting healthy lifestyle behaviors.

Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

PubMed Central

Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2016-01-01

Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

Overcoming the winner's curse: estimating penetrance parameters from case-control data.

PubMed

Zollner, Sebastian; Pritchard, Jonathan K

2007-04-01

Genomewide association studies are now a widely used approach in the search for loci that affect complex traits. After detection of significant association, estimates of penetrance and allele-frequency parameters for the associated variant indicate the importance of that variant and facilitate the planning of replication studies. However, when these estimates are based on the original data used to detect the variant, the results are affected by an ascertainment bias known as the "winner's curse." The actual genetic effect is typically smaller than its estimate. This overestimation of the genetic effect may cause replication studies to fail because the necessary sample size is underestimated. Here, we present an approach that corrects for the ascertainment bias and generates an estimate of the frequency of a variant and its penetrance parameters. The method produces a point estimate and confidence region for the parameter estimates. We study the performance of this method using simulated data sets and show that it is possible to greatly reduce the bias in the parameter estimates, even when the original association study had low power. The uncertainty of the estimate decreases with increasing sample size, independent of the power of the original test for association. Finally, we show that application of the method to case-control data can improve the design of replication studies considerably.

New Evidence on the Relationship Between Climate and Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, M.

2015-12-01

We synthesize a large new body of research on the relationship between climate and conflict. We consider many types of human conflict, ranging from interpersonal conflict -- domestic violence, road rage, assault, murder, and rape -- to intergroup conflict -- riots, coups, ethnic violence, land invasions, gang violence, and civil war. After harmonizing statistical specifications and standardizing estimated effect sizes within each conflict category, we implement a meta-analysis that allows us to estimate the mean effect of climate variation on conflict outcomes as well as quantify the degree of variability in this effect size across studies. Looking across more than 50 studies, we find that deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially, with average effects that are highly statistically significant. We find that contemporaneous temperature has the largest average effect by far, with each 1 standard deviation increase toward warmer temperatures increasing the frequency of contemporaneous interpersonal conflict by 2% and of intergroup conflict by more than 10%. We also quantify substantial heterogeneity in these effect estimates across settings.

The Effects of Test Length and Sample Size on Item Parameters in Item Response Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Alper; Anil, Duygu

2017-01-01

This study investigates the effects of sample size and test length on item-parameter estimation in test development utilizing three unidimensional dichotomous models of item response theory (IRT). For this purpose, a real language test comprised of 50 items was administered to 6,288 students. Data from this test was used to obtain data sets of…

Improving the accuracy of hyaluronic acid molecular weight estimation by conventional size exclusion chromatography.

PubMed

Shanmuga Doss, Sreeja; Bhatt, Nirav Pravinbhai; Jayaraman, Guhan

2017-08-15

There is an unreasonably high variation in the literature reports on molecular weight of hyaluronic acid (HA) estimated using conventional size exclusion chromatography (SEC). This variation is most likely due to errors in estimation. Working with commercially available HA molecular weight standards, this work examines the extent of error in molecular weight estimation due to two factors: use of non-HA based calibration and concentration of sample injected into the SEC column. We develop a multivariate regression correlation to correct for concentration effect. Our analysis showed that, SEC calibration based on non-HA standards like polyethylene oxide and pullulan led to approximately 2 and 10 times overestimation, respectively, when compared to HA-based calibration. Further, we found that injected sample concentration has an effect on molecular weight estimation. Even at 1g/l injected sample concentration, HA molecular weight standards of 0.7 and 1.64MDa showed appreciable underestimation of 11-24%. The multivariate correlation developed was found to reduce error in estimations at 1g/l to <4%. The correlation was also successfully applied to accurately estimate the molecular weight of HA produced by a recombinant Lactococcus lactis fermentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Demographic and genetic status of an isolated population of bog turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii): Implications for managing small populations of long-lived animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pittman, Shannon E.; King, T.L.; Faurby, S.; Dorcas, M.E.

2011-01-01

In this study, we sought to determine the population stability and genetic diversity of one isolated population of the federally-threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) in North Carolina. Using capture-recapture data, we estimated adult survival and population growth rate from 1992 to 2007. We found that the population decreased from an estimated 36 adult turtles in 1994 to approximately 11 adult turtles in 2007. We found a constant adult survival of 0. 893 (SE = 0. 018, 95% confidence interval, 0. 853-0. 924) between 1992 and 2007. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we compared the genetic status of this population with five other bog turtle populations. The target population displayed allelic richness (4. 8 ?? 0. 5) and observed heterozygosity (0. 619 ?? 0. 064) within the range of the other bog turtle populations. Coalescent analysis of population growth rate, effective population size, and timing of population structuring event also indicated the genetics of the target population were comparable to the other populations studied. Estimates of effective population size were a proportion of the census size in all populations except the target population, in which the effective population size was larger than the census size (30 turtles vs. 11 turtles). We attribute the high genetic diversity in the target population to the presence of multiple generations of old turtles. This study illustrates that the demographic status of populations of long-lived species may not be reflected genetically if a decline occurred recently. Consequently, the genetic integrity of populations of long-lived animals experiencing rapid demographic bottlenecks may be preserved through conservation efforts effective in addressing demographic problems. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

An engineering method for estimating notch-size effect in fatigue tests on steel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhn, Paul; Hardrath, Herbert F

1952-01-01

Neuber's proposed method of calculating a practical factor of stress concentration for parts containing notches of arbitrary size depends on the knowledge of a "new material constant" which can be established only indirectly. In this paper, the new constant has been evaluated for a large variety of steels from fatigue tests reported in the literature, attention being confined to stresses near the endurance limit. Reasonably satisfactory results were obtained with the assumption that the constant depends only on the tensile strength of the steel. Even in cases where the notches were cracks of which only the depth was known, reasonably satisfactory agreement was found between calculated and experimental factors. It is also shown that the material constant can be used in an empirical formula to estimate the size effect on unnotched specimens tested in bending fatigue.

Variable is better than invariable: sparse VSS-NLMS algorithms with application to adaptive MIMO channel estimation.

PubMed

Gui, Guan; Chen, Zhang-xin; Xu, Li; Wan, Qun; Huang, Jiyan; Adachi, Fumiyuki

2014-01-01

Channel estimation problem is one of the key technical issues in sparse frequency-selective fading multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems using orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) scheme. To estimate sparse MIMO channels, sparse invariable step-size normalized least mean square (ISS-NLMS) algorithms were applied to adaptive sparse channel estimation (ACSE). It is well known that step-size is a critical parameter which controls three aspects: algorithm stability, estimation performance, and computational cost. However, traditional methods are vulnerable to cause estimation performance loss because ISS cannot balance the three aspects simultaneously. In this paper, we propose two stable sparse variable step-size NLMS (VSS-NLMS) algorithms to improve the accuracy of MIMO channel estimators. First, ASCE is formulated in MIMO-OFDM systems. Second, different sparse penalties are introduced to VSS-NLMS algorithm for ASCE. In addition, difference between sparse ISS-NLMS algorithms and sparse VSS-NLMS ones is explained and their lower bounds are also derived. At last, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms for ASCE, several selected simulation results are shown to prove that the proposed sparse VSS-NLMS algorithms can achieve better estimation performance than the conventional methods via mean square error (MSE) and bit error rate (BER) metrics.

Variable Is Better Than Invariable: Sparse VSS-NLMS Algorithms with Application to Adaptive MIMO Channel Estimation

PubMed Central

Gui, Guan; Chen, Zhang-xin; Xu, Li; Wan, Qun; Huang, Jiyan; Adachi, Fumiyuki

2014-01-01

Channel estimation problem is one of the key technical issues in sparse frequency-selective fading multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems using orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) scheme. To estimate sparse MIMO channels, sparse invariable step-size normalized least mean square (ISS-NLMS) algorithms were applied to adaptive sparse channel estimation (ACSE). It is well known that step-size is a critical parameter which controls three aspects: algorithm stability, estimation performance, and computational cost. However, traditional methods are vulnerable to cause estimation performance loss because ISS cannot balance the three aspects simultaneously. In this paper, we propose two stable sparse variable step-size NLMS (VSS-NLMS) algorithms to improve the accuracy of MIMO channel estimators. First, ASCE is formulated in MIMO-OFDM systems. Second, different sparse penalties are introduced to VSS-NLMS algorithm for ASCE. In addition, difference between sparse ISS-NLMS algorithms and sparse VSS-NLMS ones is explained and their lower bounds are also derived. At last, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms for ASCE, several selected simulation results are shown to prove that the proposed sparse VSS-NLMS algorithms can achieve better estimation performance than the conventional methods via mean square error (MSE) and bit error rate (BER) metrics. PMID:25089286

Small and poor females change sex: a theoretical and empirical study on protogynous sex change in a triggerfish under varying resource abundance.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Sachi; Seki, Satoko; Sawada, Kota; Takahashi, Satoshi

2013-01-21

Sex change is known from various fish species. In many polygynous species, the largest female usually changes sex to male when the dominant male disappeared, as predicted by the classical size-advantage model. However, in some fishes, the disappearance of male often induces sex change by a smaller female, instead of the largest one. The halfmoon triggerfish Sufflamen chrysopterum is one of such species. We conducted both field investigation and theoretical analysis to test the hypothesis that variation in female fecundity causes the sex change by less-fertile females, even if they are not the largest. We estimated the effect of body length and residual body width (an indicator of nutrition status) on clutch size based on field data. Sex-specific growth rates were also estimated from our investigation and a previous study. We incorporated these estimated value into an evolutionarily stable strategy model for status-dependent size at sex change. As a result, we predict that rich females change sex at a larger size than poor ones, since a rich fish can achieve high reproductive success as a female. In some situations, richer females no longer change sex (i.e. lifelong females), and poorer fish changes sex just after maturation (i.e. primary males). We also analyzed the effect of size-specific growth and mortality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Effects of Beam Size and Flaw Morphology on Ultrasonic Pulse/Echo Sizing of Delaminations in Carbon Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margetan, Frank J.; Leckey, Cara A.; Barnard, Dan

2012-01-01

The size and shape of a delamination in a multi-layered structure can be estimated in various ways from an ultrasonic pulse/echo image. For example the -6dB contours of measured response provide one simple estimate of the boundary. More sophisticated approaches can be imagined where one adjusts the proposed boundary to bring measured and predicted UT images into optimal agreement. Such approaches require suitable models of the inspection process. In this paper we explore issues pertaining to model-based size estimation for delaminations in carbon fiber reinforced laminates. In particular we consider the influence on sizing when the delamination is non-planar or partially transmitting in certain regions. Two models for predicting broadband sonic time-domain responses are considered: (1) a fast "simple" model using paraxial beam expansions and Kirchhoff and phase-screen approximations; and (2) the more exact (but computationally intensive) 3D elastodynamic finite integration technique (EFIT). Model-to-model and model-to experiment comparisons are made for delaminations in uniaxial composite plates, and the simple model is then used to critique the -6dB rule for delamination sizing.

Dietary assessment in minority ethnic groups: a systematic review of instruments for portion-size estimation in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Almiron-Roig, Eva; Aitken, Amanda; Galloway, Catherine

2017-01-01

Context: Dietary assessment in minority ethnic groups is critical for surveillance programs and for implementing effective interventions. A major challenge is the accurate estimation of portion sizes for traditional foods and dishes. Objective: The aim of this systematic review was to assess records published up to 2014 describing a portion-size estimation element (PSEE) applicable to the dietary assessment of UK-residing ethnic minorities. Data sources, selection, and extraction: Electronic databases, internet sites, and theses repositories were searched, generating 5683 titles, from which 57 eligible full-text records were reviewed. Data analysis: Forty-two publications about minority ethnic groups (n = 20) or autochthonous populations (n = 22) were included. The most common PSEEs (47%) were combination tools (eg, food models and portion-size lists), followed by portion-size lists in questionnaires/guides (19%) and image-based and volumetric tools (17% each). Only 17% of PSEEs had been validated against weighed data. Conclusions: When developing ethnic-specific dietary assessment tools, it is important to consider customary portion sizes by sex and age, traditional household utensil usage, and population literacy levels. Combining multiple PSEEs may increase accuracy, but such methods require validation. PMID:28340101

Evidence of market-driven size-selective fishing and the mediating effects of biological and institutional factors

PubMed Central

Reddy, Sheila M. W.; Wentz, Allison; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Maxey, Martin; Nagavarapu, Sriniketh; Leslie, Heather M.

2014-01-01

Market demand is often ignored or assumed to lead uniformly to the decline of resources. Yet little is known about how market demand influences natural resources in particular contexts, or the mediating effects of biological or institutional factors. Here, we investigate this problem by examining the Pacific red snapper (Lutjanus peru) fishery around La Paz, Mexico, where medium or “plate-sized” fish are sold to restaurants at a premium price. If higher demand for plate-sized fish increases the relative abundance of the smallest (recruit size class) and largest (most fecund) fish, this may be a market mechanism to increase stocks and fishermen’s revenues. We tested this hypothesis by estimating the effect of prices on the distribution of catch across size classes using daily records of prices and catch. We linked predictions from this economic choice model to a staged-based model of the fishery to estimate the effects on the stock and revenues from harvest. We found that the supply of plate-sized fish increased by 6%, while the supply of large fish decreased by 4% as a result of a 13% price premium for plate-sized fish. This market-driven size selection increased revenues (14%) but decreased total fish biomass (−3%). However, when market-driven size selection was combined with limited institutional constraints, both fish biomass (28%) and fishermen’s revenue (22%) increased. These results show that the direction and magnitude of the effects of market demand on biological populations and human behavior can depend on both biological attributes and institutional constraints. Fisheries management may capitalize on these conditional effects by implementing size-based regulations when economic and institutional incentives will enhance compliance, as in the case we describe here, or by creating compliance enhancing conditions for existing regulations. PMID:23865225

Analysis of Measurement Error and Estimator Shape in Three-Point Hydraulic Gradient Estimators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, S. A.; Wahi, A. K.

2003-12-01

Three spatially separated measurements of head provide a means of estimating the magnitude and orientation of the hydraulic gradient. Previous work with three-point estimators has focused on the effect of the size (area) of the three-point estimator and measurement error on the final estimates of the gradient magnitude and orientation in laboratory and field studies (Mizell, 1980; Silliman and Frost, 1995; Silliman and Mantz, 2000; Ruskauff and Rumbaugh, 1996). However, a systematic analysis of the combined effects of measurement error, estimator shape and estimator orientation relative to the gradient orientation has not previously been conducted. Monte Carlo simulation with an underlying assumption of a homogeneous transmissivity field is used to examine the effects of uncorrelated measurement error on a series of eleven different three-point estimators having the same size but different shapes as a function of the orientation of the true gradient. Results show that the variance in the estimate of both the magnitude and the orientation increase linearly with the increase in measurement error in agreement with the results of stochastic theory for estimators that are small relative to the correlation length of transmissivity (Mizell, 1980). Three-point estimator shapes with base to height ratios between 0.5 and 5.0 provide accurate estimates of magnitude and orientation across all orientations of the true gradient. As an example, these results are applied to data collected from a monitoring network of 25 wells at the WIPP site during two different time periods. The simulation results are used to reduce the set of all possible combinations of three wells to those combinations with acceptable measurement errors relative to the amount of head drop across the estimator and base to height ratios between 0.5 and 5.0. These limitations reduce the set of all possible well combinations by 98 percent and show that size alone as defined by triangle area is not a valid discriminator of whether or not the estimator provides accurate estimates of the gradient magnitude and orientation. This research was funded by WIPP programs administered by the U.S Department of Energy. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Assessing the effect of elevated carbon dioxide on soil carbon: a comparison of four meta-analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hungate, B. A.; van Groenigen, K.; Six, J.

2009-08-01

Soil is the largest reservoir of organic carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere and soil C has a relatively long mean residence time. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations generally increase plant growth and C input to soil, suggesting that soil might help mitigate atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise and global warming. But to what extent mitigation will occur is unclear. The large size of the soil C pool not only makes it a potential buffer against rising atmospheric CO{sub 2}, but also makes it difficult to measure changes amid the existing background. Meta-analysis is one tool that can overcomemore » the limited power of single studies. Four recent meta-analyses addressed this issue but reached somewhat different conclusions about the effect of elevated CO{sub 2} on soil C accumulation, especially regarding the role of nitrogen (N) inputs. Here, we assess the extent of differences between these conclusions and propose a new analysis of the data. The four meta-analyses included different studies, derived different effect size estimates from common studies, used different weighting functions and metrics of effect size, and used different approaches to address nonindependence of effect sizes. Although all factors influenced the mean effect size estimates and subsequent inferences, the approach to independence had the largest influence. We recommend that meta-analysts critically assess and report choices about effect size metrics and weighting functions, and criteria for study selection and independence. Such decisions need to be justified carefully because they affect the basis for inference. Our new analysis, with a combined data set, confirms that the effect of elevated CO{sub 2} on net soil C accumulation increases with the addition of N fertilizers. Although the effect at low N inputs was not significant, statistical power to detect biogeochemically important effect sizes at low N is limited, even with meta-analysis, suggesting the continued need for long-term experiments.« less

Direct Estimation of Correlation as a Measure of Association Strength Using Multidimensional Item Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Wen-Chung

2004-01-01

The Pearson correlation is used to depict effect sizes in the context of item response theory. Amultidimensional Rasch model is used to directly estimate the correlation between latent traits. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to investigate whether the population correlation could be accurately estimated and whether the bootstrap method…

Tests of Independence in Contingency Tables with Small Samples: A Comparison of Statistical Power.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parshall, Cynthia G.; Kromrey, Jeffrey D.

1996-01-01

Power and Type I error rates were estimated for contingency tables with small sample sizes for the following four types of tests: (1) Pearson's chi-square; (2) chi-square with Yates's continuity correction; (3) the likelihood ratio test; and (4) Fisher's Exact Test. Various marginal distributions, sample sizes, and effect sizes were examined. (SLD)

The Development and Validation of a Bilingual Version of the Vocabulary Size Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karami, Hossein

2012-01-01

This paper reports an attempt to develop and validate a bilingual Persian version of the Vocabulary Size Test (VST). Due to the particular educational system in Iran, there is a dire need for a test that can effectively estimate English learners' vocabulary sizes. Previous research (Nguyen and Nation, 2011) has indicated that bilingual versions of…

Adjustment for reporting bias in network meta-analysis of antidepressant trials

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Network meta-analysis (NMA), a generalization of conventional MA, allows for assessing the relative effectiveness of multiple interventions. Reporting bias is a major threat to the validity of MA and NMA. Numerous methods are available to assess the robustness of MA results to reporting bias. We aimed to extend such methods to NMA. Methods We introduced 2 adjustment models for Bayesian NMA. First, we extended a meta-regression model that allows the effect size to depend on its standard error. Second, we used a selection model that estimates the propensity of trial results being published and in which trials with lower propensity are weighted up in the NMA model. Both models rely on the assumption that biases are exchangeable across the network. We applied the models to 2 networks of placebo-controlled trials of 12 antidepressants, with 74 trials in the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) database but only 51 with published results. NMA and adjustment models were used to estimate the effects of the 12 drugs relative to placebo, the 66 effect sizes for all possible pair-wise comparisons between drugs, probabilities of being the best drug and ranking of drugs. We compared the results from the 2 adjustment models applied to published data and NMAs of published data and NMAs of FDA data, considered as representing the totality of the data. Results Both adjustment models showed reduced estimated effects for the 12 drugs relative to the placebo as compared with NMA of published data. Pair-wise effect sizes between drugs, probabilities of being the best drug and ranking of drugs were modified. Estimated drug effects relative to the placebo from both adjustment models were corrected (i.e., similar to those from NMA of FDA data) for some drugs but not others, which resulted in differences in pair-wise effect sizes between drugs and ranking. Conclusions In this case study, adjustment models showed that NMA of published data was not robust to reporting bias and provided estimates closer to that of NMA of FDA data, although not optimal. The validity of such methods depends on the number of trials in the network and the assumption that conventional MAs in the network share a common mean bias mechanism. PMID:23016799

Synthesis and Study of Silver Nanoparticles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soloman, Sally D.; Bahadory, Mozghan; Jeyarajasingam, Aravindan V.; Rutkowsky, Susan A.; Boritz, Charles; Mulfinger, Lorraine

2007-01-01

A laboratory experiment was conducted in which the students synthesized yellow colloidal silver, estimate particle size using visible spectroscopy and studied aggregation effects. The students were thus introduced to nanotechnology along with other topics such as redox chemistry, limiting and excess reactants, spectroscopy and atomic size.

How accurate is the Pearson r-from-Z approximation? A Monte Carlo simulation study.

PubMed

Hittner, James B; May, Kim

2012-01-01

The Pearson r-from-Z approximation estimates the sample correlation (as an effect size measure) from the ratio of two quantities: the standard normal deviate equivalent (Z-score) corresponding to a one-tailed p-value divided by the square root of the total (pooled) sample size. The formula has utility in meta-analytic work when reports of research contain minimal statistical information. Although simple to implement, the accuracy of the Pearson r-from-Z approximation has not been empirically evaluated. To address this omission, we performed a series of Monte Carlo simulations. Results indicated that in some cases the formula did accurately estimate the sample correlation. However, when sample size was very small (N = 10) and effect sizes were small to small-moderate (ds of 0.1 and 0.3), the Pearson r-from-Z approximation was very inaccurate. Detailed figures that provide guidance as to when the Pearson r-from-Z formula will likely yield valid inferences are presented.

Quality assessment for recycling aggregates from construction and demolition waste: An image-based approach for particle size estimation.

PubMed

Di Maria, Francesco; Bianconi, Francesco; Micale, Caterina; Baglioni, Stefano; Marionni, Moreno

2016-02-01

The size distribution of aggregates has direct and important effects on fundamental properties of construction materials such as workability, strength and durability. The size distribution of aggregates from construction and demolition waste (C&D) is one of the parameters which determine the degree of recyclability and therefore the quality of such materials. Unfortunately, standard methods like sieving or laser diffraction can be either very time consuming (sieving) or possible only in laboratory conditions (laser diffraction). As an alternative we propose and evaluate the use of image analysis to estimate the size distribution of aggregates from C&D in a fast yet accurate manner. The effectiveness of the procedure was tested on aggregates generated by an existing C&D mechanical treatment plant. Experimental comparison with manual sieving showed agreement in the range 81-85%. The proposed technique demonstrated potential for being used on on-line systems within mechanical treatment plants of C&D. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Unbiased estimates of galaxy scaling relations from photometric redshift surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Graziano; Sheth, Ravi K.

2008-06-01

Many physical properties of galaxies correlate with one another, and these correlations are often used to constrain galaxy formation models. Such correlations include the colour-magnitude relation, the luminosity-size relation, the fundamental plane, etc. However, the transformation from observable (e.g. angular size, apparent brightness) to physical quantity (physical size, luminosity) is often distance dependent. Noise in the distance estimate will lead to biased estimates of these correlations, thus compromising the ability of photometric redshift surveys to constrain galaxy formation models. We describe two methods which can remove this bias. One is a generalization of the Vmax method, and the other is a maximum-likelihood approach. We illustrate their effectiveness by studying the size-luminosity relation in a mock catalogue, although both methods can be applied to other scaling relations as well. We show that if one simply uses photometric redshifts one obtains a biased relation; our methods correct for this bias and recover the true relation.

Small or far away? Size and distance perception in the praying mantis

PubMed Central

Bissianna, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Stereo or ‘3D’ vision is an important but costly process seen in several evolutionarily distinct lineages including primates, birds and insects. Many selective advantages could have led to the evolution of stereo vision, including range finding, camouflage breaking and estimation of object size. In this paper, we investigate the possibility that stereo vision enables praying mantises to estimate the size of prey by using a combination of disparity cues and angular size cues. We used a recently developed insect 3D cinema paradigm to present mantises with virtual prey having differing disparity and angular size cues. We predicted that if they were able to use these cues to gauge the absolute size of objects, we should see evidence for size constancy where they would strike preferentially at prey of a particular physical size, across a range of simulated distances. We found that mantises struck most often when disparity cues implied a prey distance of 2.5 cm; increasing the implied distance caused a significant reduction in the number of strikes. We, however, found no evidence for size constancy. There was a significant interaction effect of the simulated distance and angular size on the number of strikes made by the mantis but this was not in the direction predicted by size constancy. This indicates that mantises do not use their stereo vision to estimate object size. We conclude that other selective advantages, not size constancy, have driven the evolution of stereo vision in the praying mantis. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Vision in our three-dimensional world’. PMID:27269605

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data. PMID:26479531

Combining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guthrie Zimmerman,; Sauer, John; Fleming, Kathy; Link, William; Pamela R. Garrettson,

2015-01-01

We combined data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey (AFBWS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate the number of wood ducks (Aix sponsa) in the United States portion of the Atlantic Flyway from 1993 to 2013. The AFBWS is a plot-based survey that covers most of the northern and central portions of the Flyway; when analyzed with adjustments for survey time of day effects, these data can be used to estimate population size. The BBS provides an index of wood duck abundance along roadside routes. Although factors influencing change in BBS counts over time can be controlled in BBS analysis, BBS indices alone cannot be used to derive population size estimates. We used AFBWS data to scale BBS indices for Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), basing the scaling factors on the ratio of estimated AFBWS population sizes to regional BBS indices for portions of BCRs that were common to both surveys. We summed scaled BBS results for portions of the Flyway not covered by the AFBWS with AFBWS population estimates to estimate a mean yearly total of 1,295,875 (mean 95% CI: 1,013,940–1,727,922) wood ducks. Scaling factors varied among BCRs from 16.7 to 148.0; the mean scaling factor was 68.9 (mean 95% CI: 53.5–90.9). Flyway-wide, population estimates from the combined analysis were consistent with alternative estimates derived from harvest data, and also provide population estimates within states and BCRs. We recommend their use in harvest and habitat management within the Atlantic Flyway.

Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS): effects of container size adjustments on estimates of alcohol consumption across Hispanic national groups.

PubMed

Caetano, Raul; Mills, Britain A; Harris, T Robert

2012-01-01

This study was conducted to examine discrepancies in alcohol consumption estimates between a self-reported standard quantity-frequency measure and an adjusted version based on respondents' typically used container size. Using a multistage cluster sample design, 5,224 Hispanic individuals 18 years of age and older were selected from the household population in five metropolitan areas of the United States: Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles. The survey-weighted response rate was 76%. Personal interviews lasting an average of 1 hour were conducted in respondents' homes in either English or Spanish. The overall effect of container adjustment was to increase estimates of ethanol consumption by 68% for women (range across Hispanic groups: 17%-99%) and 30% for men (range: 14%-42%). With the exception of female Cuban American, Mexican American, and South/Central American beer drinkers and male Cuban American wine drinkers, all percentage differences between unadjusted and container-adjusted estimates were positive. Second, container adjustments produced the largest change for volume of distilled spirits, followed by wine and beer. Container size adjustments generally produced larger percentage increases in consumption estimates for the higher volume drinkers, especially the upper tertile of female drinkers. Self-reported alcohol consumption based on standard drinks underreports consumption when compared with reports based on the amount of alcohol poured into commonly used containers.

Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

PubMed

Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

2015-08-01

Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

The Effect of Small Sample Size on Two-Level Model Estimates: A Review and Illustration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeish, Daniel M.; Stapleton, Laura M.

2016-01-01

Multilevel models are an increasingly popular method to analyze data that originate from a clustered or hierarchical structure. To effectively utilize multilevel models, one must have an adequately large number of clusters; otherwise, some model parameters will be estimated with bias. The goals for this paper are to (1) raise awareness of the…

Estimating Treatment Effects from Contaminated Multi-Period Education Experiments: The Dynamic Impacts of Class Size Reductions. NBER Working Paper No. 15200

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ding, Weili; Lehrer, Steven F.

2009-01-01

This paper introduces an empirical strategy to estimate dynamic treatment effects in randomized trials that provide treatment in multiple stages and in which various noncompliance problems arise such as attrition and selective transitions between treatment and control groups. Our approach is applied to the highly influential four year randomized…

Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique

2006-07-01

There has been considerable research conducted on the development of statistical models for predicting crashes on highway facilities. Despite numerous advancements made for improving the estimation tools of statistical models, the most common probabilistic structure used for modeling motor vehicle crashes remains the traditional Poisson and Poisson-gamma (or Negative Binomial) distribution; when crash data exhibit over-dispersion, the Poisson-gamma model is usually the model of choice most favored by transportation safety modelers. Crash data collected for safety studies often have the unusual attributes of being characterized by low sample mean values. Studies have shown that the goodness-of-fit of statistical models produced from such datasets can be significantly affected. This issue has been defined as the "low mean problem" (LMP). Despite recent developments on methods to circumvent the LMP and test the goodness-of-fit of models developed using such datasets, no work has so far examined how the LMP affects the fixed dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models used for modeling motor vehicle crashes. The dispersion parameter plays an important role in many types of safety studies and should, therefore, be reliably estimated. The primary objective of this research project was to verify whether the LMP affects the estimation of the dispersion parameter and, if it is, to determine the magnitude of the problem. The secondary objective consisted of determining the effects of an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter on common analyses performed in highway safety studies. To accomplish the objectives of the study, a series of Poisson-gamma distributions were simulated using different values describing the mean, the dispersion parameter, and the sample size. Three estimators commonly used by transportation safety modelers for estimating the dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models were evaluated: the method of moments, the weighted regression, and the maximum likelihood method. In an attempt to complement the outcome of the simulation study, Poisson-gamma models were fitted to crash data collected in Toronto, Ont. characterized by a low sample mean and small sample size. The study shows that a low sample mean combined with a small sample size can seriously affect the estimation of the dispersion parameter, no matter which estimator is used within the estimation process. The probability the dispersion parameter becomes unreliably estimated increases significantly as the sample mean and sample size decrease. Consequently, the results show that an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter can significantly undermine empirical Bayes (EB) estimates as well as the estimation of confidence intervals for the gamma mean and predicted response. The paper ends with recommendations about minimizing the likelihood of producing Poisson-gamma models with an unreliable dispersion parameter for modeling motor vehicle crashes.

Associations between job burnout and self-efficacy: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shoji, Kotaro; Cieslak, Roman; Smoktunowicz, Ewelina; Rogala, Anna; Benight, Charles C; Luszczynska, Aleksandra

2016-07-01

This study aimed at systematically reviewing and meta-analyzing the strength of associations between self-efficacy and job burnout (the global index and its components). We investigated whether these associations would be moderated by: (a) the type of measurement of burnout and self-efficacy, (b) the type of occupation, (c) the number of years of work experience and age, and (d) culture. We systematically reviewed and analyzed 57 original studies (N = 22,773) conducted among teachers (k = 29), health-care providers (k = 17), and other professionals (k = 11). The average effect size estimate for the association between self-efficacy and burnout was of medium size (-.33). Regarding the three burnout components, the largest estimate of the average effect (-.49) was found for the lack of accomplishment. The estimates of the average effect were similar, regardless of the type of measures of burnout and self-efficacy measurement (general vs. context-specific). Significantly larger estimates of the average effects were found among teachers (compared to health-care providers), older workers, and those with longer work experience. Significant self-efficacy-burnout relationships were observed across countries, although the strength of associations varied across burnout components, participants' profession, and their age.

Detecting and correcting for publication bias in meta-analysis - A truncated normal distribution approach.

PubMed

Zhu, Qiaohao; Carriere, K C

2016-01-01

Publication bias can significantly limit the validity of meta-analysis when trying to draw conclusion about a research question from independent studies. Most research on detection and correction for publication bias in meta-analysis focus mainly on funnel plot-based methodologies or selection models. In this paper, we formulate publication bias as a truncated distribution problem, and propose new parametric solutions. We develop methodologies of estimating the underlying overall effect size and the severity of publication bias. We distinguish the two major situations, in which publication bias may be induced by: (1) small effect size or (2) large p-value. We consider both fixed and random effects models, and derive estimators for the overall mean and the truncation proportion. These estimators will be obtained using maximum likelihood estimation and method of moments under fixed- and random-effects models, respectively. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate the performance of our methodology, and to compare with the non-parametric Trim and Fill method based on funnel plot. We find that our methods based on truncated normal distribution perform consistently well, both in detecting and correcting publication bias under various situations.

Chaff Aerodynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-11-01

Figure Title Page C-1 Effect of Chaff Size on Reynolds Nuxiber for Steady Descent (Sea Lpvel Condiions) 95 C-2 Drag Parameters of Long Cylinder ;n...appreciate the significance of the resistance forrnul&,s for cylinders , it is appropriate to examine the effect of cylinder radius (i.e. , chaff size) on...by Happel and Brenner for estimating the effect of the slenderness ratio. Burger’s drag rela- tion foe a cylinder moving perpendicular to its axis is

Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

PubMed

Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C; Gilchrist, A Stuart

2013-01-01

There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-1)2, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1) for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

40 CFR Table F-4 to Subpart F of... - Estimated Mass Concentration Measurement of PM2.5 for Idealized Coarse Aerosol Size Distribution

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Estimated Mass Concentration... Equivalent Methods for PM2.5 Pt. 53, Subpt. F, Table F-4 Table F-4 to Subpart F of Part 53—Estimated Mass... (µm) Test Sampler Fractional Sampling Effectiveness Interval Mass Concentration (µg/m3) Estimated Mass...

40 CFR Table F-4 to Subpart F of... - Estimated Mass Concentration Measurement of PM2.5 for Idealized Coarse Aerosol Size Distribution

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 5 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Estimated Mass Concentration... Equivalent Methods for PM2.5 Pt. 53, Subpt. F, Table F-4 Table F-4 to Subpart F of Part 53—Estimated Mass... (µm) Test Sampler Fractional Sampling Effectiveness Interval Mass Concentration (µg/m3) Estimated Mass...

40 CFR Table F-6 to Subpart F of... - Estimated Mass Concentration Measurement of PM2.5 for Idealized Fine Aerosol Size Distribution

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 5 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Estimated Mass Concentration... Equivalent Methods for PM2.5 Pt. 53, Subpt. F, Table F-6 Table F-6 to Subpart F of Part 53—Estimated Mass... (µm) Test Sampler Fractional Sampling Effectiveness Interval Mass Concentration (µg/m3) Estimated Mass...

40 CFR Table F-6 to Subpart F of... - Estimated Mass Concentration Measurement of PM2.5 for Idealized Fine Aerosol Size Distribution

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Estimated Mass Concentration... Equivalent Methods for PM2.5 Pt. 53, Subpt. F, Table F-6 Table F-6 to Subpart F of Part 53—Estimated Mass... (µm) Test Sampler Fractional Sampling Effectiveness Interval Mass Concentration (µg/m3) Estimated Mass...

The dose from Compton backscatter screening.

PubMed

Rez, Peter; Metzger, Robert L; Mossman, Kenneth L

2011-04-01

Systems based on the detection of Compton backscattered X rays have been deployed for screening personnel for weapons and explosives. Similar principles are used for screening vehicles at border-crossing points. Based on well-established scattering cross sections and absorption coefficients in conjunction with reasonable estimates of the image contrast and resolution, the entrance skin dose and the dose at a depth of 1 cm can be calculated. The effective dose can be estimated using the same conversion coefficients as used to convert exposure measurements to the effective dose. It is shown that the effective dose is highly dependent on image resolution (i.e. pixel size).The effective doses for personnel screening systems are unlikely to be in compliance with the American National Standards Institute standard NS 43.17 unless the pixel sizes are >4 mm. Nevertheless, calculated effective doses are well below doses associated with health effects.

Conditional estimation using prior information in 2-stage group sequential designs assuming asymptotic normality when the trial terminated early.

PubMed

Shimura, Masashi; Maruo, Kazushi; Gosho, Masahiko

2018-04-23

Two-stage designs are widely used to determine whether a clinical trial should be terminated early. In such trials, a maximum likelihood estimate is often adopted to describe the difference in efficacy between the experimental and reference treatments; however, this method is known to display conditional bias. To reduce such bias, a conditional mean-adjusted estimator (CMAE) has been proposed, although the remaining bias may be nonnegligible when a trial is stopped for efficacy at the interim analysis. We propose a new estimator for adjusting the conditional bias of the treatment effect by extending the idea of the CMAE. This estimator is calculated by weighting the maximum likelihood estimate obtained at the interim analysis and the effect size prespecified when calculating the sample size. We evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator through analytical and simulation studies in various settings in which a trial is stopped for efficacy or futility at the interim analysis. We find that the conditional bias of the proposed estimator is smaller than that of the CMAE when the information time at the interim analysis is small. In addition, the mean-squared error of the proposed estimator is also smaller than that of the CMAE. In conclusion, we recommend the use of the proposed estimator for trials that are terminated early for efficacy or futility. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of sample size and sampling frequency on studies of brown bear home ranges and habitat use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, Steve M.; Schwartz, Charles C.

1999-01-01

We equipped 9 brown bears (Ursus arctos) on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, with collars containing both conventional very-high-frequency (VHF) transmitters and global positioning system (GPS) receivers programmed to determine an animal's position at 5.75-hr intervals. We calculated minimum convex polygon (MCP) and fixed and adaptive kernel home ranges for randomly-selected subsets of the GPS data to examine the effects of sample size on accuracy and precision of home range estimates. We also compared results obtained by weekly aerial radiotracking versus more frequent GPS locations to test for biases in conventional radiotracking data. Home ranges based on the MCP were 20-606 km2 (x = 201) for aerial radiotracking data (n = 12-16 locations/bear) and 116-1,505 km2 (x = 522) for the complete GPS data sets (n = 245-466 locations/bear). Fixed kernel home ranges were 34-955 km2 (x = 224) for radiotracking data and 16-130 km2 (x = 60) for the GPS data. Differences between means for radiotracking and GPS data were due primarily to the larger samples provided by the GPS data. Means did not differ between radiotracking data and equivalent-sized subsets of GPS data (P > 0.10). For the MCP, home range area increased and variability decreased asymptotically with number of locations. For the kernel models, both area and variability decreased with increasing sample size. Simulations suggested that the MCP and kernel models required >60 and >80 locations, respectively, for estimates to be both accurate (change in area <1%/additional location) and precise (CV < 50%). Although the radiotracking data appeared unbiased, except for the relationship between area and sample size, these data failed to indicate some areas that likely were important to bears. Our results suggest that the usefulness of conventional radiotracking data may be limited by potential biases and variability due to small samples. Investigators that use home range estimates in statistical tests should consider the effects of variability of those estimates. Use of GPS-equipped collars can facilitate obtaining larger samples of unbiased data and improve accuracy and precision of home range estimates.

Robust organelle size extractions from elastic scattering measurements of single cells (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaday, Ashley E.; Draham, Robert; Berger, Andrew J.

2016-04-01

The goal of this project is to estimate non-nuclear organelle size distributions in single cells by measuring angular scattering patterns and fitting them with Mie theory. Simulations have indicated that the large relative size distribution of organelles (mean:width≈2) leads to unstable Mie fits unless scattering is collected at polar angles less than 20 degrees. Our optical system has therefore been modified to collect angles down to 10 degrees. Initial validations will be performed on polystyrene bead populations whose size distributions resemble those of cell organelles. Unlike with the narrow bead distributions that are often used for calibration, we expect to see an order-of-magnitude improvement in the stability of the size estimates as the minimum angle decreases from 20 to 10 degrees. Scattering patterns will then be acquired and analyzed from single cells (EMT6 mouse cancer cells), both fixed and live, at multiple time points. Fixed cells, with no changes in organelle sizes over time, will be measured to determine the fluctuation level in estimated size distribution due to measurement imperfections alone. Subsequent measurements on live cells will determine whether there is a higher level of fluctuation that could be attributed to dynamic changes in organelle size. Studies on unperturbed cells are precursors to ones in which the effects of exogenous agents are monitored over time.

Comparing fishers' and scientific estimates of size at maturity and maximum body size as indicators for overfishing.

PubMed

Mclean, Elizabeth L; Forrester, Graham E

2018-04-01

We tested whether fishers' local ecological knowledge (LEK) of two fish life-history parameters, size at maturity (SAM) at maximum body size (MS), was comparable to scientific estimates (SEK) of the same parameters, and whether LEK influenced fishers' perceptions of sustainability. Local ecological knowledge was documented for 82 fishers from a small-scale fishery in Samaná Bay, Dominican Republic, whereas SEK was compiled from the scientific literature. Size at maturity estimates derived from LEK and SEK overlapped for most of the 15 commonly harvested species (10 of 15). In contrast, fishers' maximum size estimates were usually lower than (eight species), or overlapped with (five species) scientific estimates. Fishers' size-based estimates of catch composition indicate greater potential for overfishing than estimates based on SEK. Fishers' estimates of size at capture relative to size at maturity suggest routine inclusion of juveniles in the catch (9 of 15 species), and fishers' estimates suggest that harvested fish are substantially smaller than maximum body size for most species (11 of 15 species). Scientific estimates also suggest that harvested fish are generally smaller than maximum body size (13 of 15), but suggest that the catch is dominated by adults for most species (9 of 15 species), and that juveniles are present in the catch for fewer species (6 of 15). Most Samaná fishers characterized the current state of their fishery as poor (73%) and as having changed for the worse over the past 20 yr (60%). Fishers stated that concern about overfishing, catching small fish, and catching immature fish contributed to these perceptions, indicating a possible influence of catch-size composition on their perceptions. Future work should test this link more explicitly because we found no evidence that the minority of fishers with more positive perceptions of their fishery reported systematically different estimates of catch-size composition than those with the more negative majority view. Although fishers' and scientific estimates of size at maturity and maximum size parameters sometimes differed, the fact that fishers make routine quantitative assessments of maturity and body size suggests potential for future collaborative monitoring efforts to generate estimates usable by scientists and meaningful to fishers. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

The Flynn Effect: A Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Trahan, Lisa; Stuebing, Karla K.; Hiscock, Merril K.; Fletcher, Jack M.

2014-01-01

The “Flynn effect” refers to the observed rise in IQ scores over time, resulting in norms obsolescence. Although the Flynn effect is widely accepted, most approaches to estimating it have relied upon “scorecard” approaches that make estimates of its magnitude and error of measurement controversial and prevent determination of factors that moderate the Flynn effect across different IQ tests. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the magnitude of the Flynn effect with a higher degree of precision, to determine the error of measurement, and to assess the impact of several moderator variables on the mean effect size. Across 285 studies (N = 14,031) since 1951 with administrations of two intelligence tests with different normative bases, the meta-analytic mean was 2.31, 95% CI [1.99, 2.64], standard score points per decade. The mean effect size for 53 comparisons (N = 3,951) (excluding three atypical studies that inflate the estimates) involving modern (since 1972) Stanford-Binet and Wechsler IQ tests (2.93, 95% CI [2.3, 3.5], IQ points per decade) was comparable to previous estimates of about 3 points per decade, but not consistent with the hypothesis that the Flynn effect is diminishing. For modern tests, study sample (larger increases for validation research samples vs. test standardization samples) and order of administration explained unique variance in the Flynn effect, but age and ability level were not significant moderators. These results supported previous estimates of the Flynn effect and its robustness across different age groups, measures, samples, and levels of performance. PMID:24979188

Sample Size and Allocation of Effort in Point Count Sampling of Birds in Bottomland Hardwood Forests

Treesearch

Winston P. Smith; Daniel J. Twedt; Robert J. Cooper; David A. Wiedenfeld; Paul B. Hamel; Robert P. Ford

1995-01-01

To examine sample size requirements and optimum allocation of effort in point count sampling of bottomland hardwood forests, we computed minimum sample sizes from variation recorded during 82 point counts (May 7-May 16, 1992) from three localities containing three habitat types across three regions of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). Also, we estimated the effect...

Monitoring Species of Concern Using Noninvasive Genetic Sampling and Capture-Recapture Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

ABBREVIATIONS AICc Akaike’s Information Criterion with small sample size correction AZGFD Arizona Game and Fish Department BMGR Barry M. Goldwater...MNKA Minimum Number Known Alive N Abundance Ne Effective Population Size NGS Noninvasive Genetic Sampling NGS-CR Noninvasive Genetic...parameter estimates from capture-recapture models require sufficient sample sizes , capture probabilities and low capture biases. For NGS-CR, sample

Measuring Compartment Size and Gas Solubility in Marine Mammals

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

bends? Effect of diving behaviour and physiology on modelled gas exchange for three species: Ziphius cavirostris, Mesoplodon densirostris and Hyperoodon...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Measuring Compartment Size and Gas Solubility in Marine...is to develop methods to estimate marine mamal tissue compartment sizes, and tissue gas solubility. We aim to improve the data available for the

Reliability Estimation When a Test Is Split into Two Parts of Unknown Effective Length.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feldt, Leonard S.

2002-01-01

Considers the situation in which content or administrative considerations limit the way in which a test can be partitioned to estimate the internal consistency reliability of the total test score. Demonstrates that a single-valued estimate of the total score reliability is possible only if an assumption is made about the comparative size of the…

High precision determination of the melting points of water TIP4P/2005 and water TIP4P/Ice models by the direct coexistence technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conde, M. M.; Rovere, M.; Gallo, P.

2017-12-01

An exhaustive study by molecular dynamics has been performed to analyze the factors that enhance the precision of the technique of direct coexistence for a system of ice and liquid water. The factors analyzed are the stochastic nature of the method, the finite size effects, and the influence of the initial ice configuration used. The results obtained show that the precision of estimates obtained through the technique of direct coexistence is markedly affected by the effects of finite size, requiring systems with a large number of molecules to reduce the error bar of the melting point. This increase in size causes an increase in the simulation time, but the estimate of the melting point with a great accuracy is important, for example, in studies on the ice surface. We also verified that the choice of the initial ice Ih configuration with different proton arrangements does not significantly affect the estimate of the melting point. Importantly this study leads us to estimate the melting point at ambient pressure of two of the most popular models of water, TIP4P/2005 and TIP4P/Ice, with the greatest precision to date.

Naturally rare versus newly rare: demographic inferences on two timescales inform conservation of Galápagos giant tortoises

PubMed Central

Garrick, Ryan C; Kajdacsi, Brittney; Russello, Michael A; Benavides, Edgar; Hyseni, Chaz; Gibbs, James P; Tapia, Washington; Caccone, Adalgisa

2015-01-01

Long-term population history can influence the genetic effects of recent bottlenecks. Therefore, for threatened or endangered species, an understanding of the past is relevant when formulating conservation strategies. Levels of variation at neutral markers have been useful for estimating local effective population sizes (Ne) and inferring whether population sizes increased or decreased over time. Furthermore, analyses of genotypic, allelic frequency, and phylogenetic information can potentially be used to separate historical from recent demographic changes. For 15 populations of Galápagos giant tortoises (Chelonoidis sp.), we used 12 microsatellite loci and DNA sequences from the mitochondrial control region and a nuclear intron, to reconstruct demographic history on shallow (past ∽100 generations, ∽2500 years) and deep (pre-Holocene, >10 thousand years ago) timescales. At the deep timescale, three populations showed strong signals of growth, but with different magnitudes and timing, indicating different underlying causes. Furthermore, estimated historical Ne of populations across the archipelago showed no correlation with island age or size, underscoring the complexity of predicting demographic history a priori. At the shallow timescale, all populations carried some signature of a genetic bottleneck, and for 12 populations, point estimates of contemporary Ne were very small (i.e., < 50). On the basis of the comparison of these genetic estimates with published census size data, Ne generally represented ∽0.16 of the census size. However, the variance in this ratio across populations was considerable. Overall, our data suggest that idiosyncratic and geographically localized forces shaped the demographic history of tortoise populations. Furthermore, from a conservation perspective, the separation of demographic events occurring on shallow versus deep timescales permits the identification of naturally rare versus newly rare populations; this distinction should facilitate prioritization of management action. PMID:25691990

Ground-plane influences on size estimation in early visual processing.

PubMed

Champion, Rebecca A; Warren, Paul A

2010-07-21

Ground-planes have an important influence on the perception of 3D space (Gibson, 1950) and it has been shown that the assumption that a ground-plane is present in the scene plays a role in the perception of object distance (Bruno & Cutting, 1988). Here, we investigate whether this influence is exerted at an early stage of processing, to affect the rapid estimation of 3D size. Participants performed a visual search task in which they searched for a target object that was larger or smaller than distracter objects. Objects were presented against a background that contained either a frontoparallel or slanted 3D surface, defined by texture gradient cues. We measured the effect on search performance of target location within the scene (near vs. far) and how this was influenced by scene orientation (which, e.g., might be consistent with a ground or ceiling plane, etc.). In addition, we investigated how scene orientation interacted with texture gradient information (indicating surface slant), to determine how these separate cues to scene layout were combined. We found that the difference in target detection performance between targets at the front and rear of the simulated scene was maximal when the scene was consistent with a ground-plane - consistent with the use of an elevation cue to object distance. In addition, we found a significant increase in the size of this effect when texture gradient information (indicating surface slant) was present, but no interaction between texture gradient and scene orientation information. We conclude that scene orientation plays an important role in the estimation of 3D size at an early stage of processing, and suggest that elevation information is linearly combined with texture gradient information for the rapid estimation of 3D size. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Much ado about nothing: the misestimation and overinterpretation of violent video game effects in eastern and western nations: comment on Anderson et al. (2010).

PubMed

Ferguson, Christopher J; Kilburn, John

2010-03-01

The issue of violent video game influences on youth violence and aggression remains intensely debated in the scholarly literature and among the general public. Several recent meta-analyses, examining outcome measures most closely related to serious aggressive acts, found little evidence for a relationship between violent video games and aggression or violence. In a new meta-analysis, C. A. Anderson et al. (2010) questioned these findings. However, their analysis has several methodological issues that limit the interpretability of their results. In their analysis, C. A. Anderson et al. included many studies that do not relate well to serious aggression, an apparently biased sample of unpublished studies, and a "best practices" analysis that appears unreliable and does not consider the impact of unstandardized aggression measures on the inflation of effect size estimates. They also focused on bivariate correlations rather than better controlled estimates of effects. Despite a number of methodological flaws that all appear likely to inflate effect size estimates, the final estimate of r = .15 is still indicative of only weak effects. Contrasts between the claims of C. A. Anderson et al. (2010) and real-world data on youth violence are discussed.

Species richness in soil bacterial communities: a proposed approach to overcome sample size bias.

PubMed

Youssef, Noha H; Elshahed, Mostafa S

2008-09-01

Estimates of species richness based on 16S rRNA gene clone libraries are increasingly utilized to gauge the level of bacterial diversity within various ecosystems. However, previous studies have indicated that regardless of the utilized approach, species richness estimates obtained are dependent on the size of the analyzed clone libraries. We here propose an approach to overcome sample size bias in species richness estimates in complex microbial communities. Parametric (Maximum likelihood-based and rarefaction curve-based) and non-parametric approaches were used to estimate species richness in a library of 13,001 near full-length 16S rRNA clones derived from soil, as well as in multiple subsets of the original library. Species richness estimates obtained increased with the increase in library size. To obtain a sample size-unbiased estimate of species richness, we calculated the theoretical clone library sizes required to encounter the estimated species richness at various clone library sizes, used curve fitting to determine the theoretical clone library size required to encounter the "true" species richness, and subsequently determined the corresponding sample size-unbiased species richness value. Using this approach, sample size-unbiased estimates of 17,230, 15,571, and 33,912 were obtained for the ML-based, rarefaction curve-based, and ACE-1 estimators, respectively, compared to bias-uncorrected values of 15,009, 11,913, and 20,909.

The special case of the 2 × 2 table: asymptotic unconditional McNemar test can be used to estimate sample size even for analysis based on GEE.

PubMed

Borkhoff, Cornelia M; Johnston, Patrick R; Stephens, Derek; Atenafu, Eshetu

2015-07-01

Aligning the method used to estimate sample size with the planned analytic method ensures the sample size needed to achieve the planned power. When using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to analyze a paired binary primary outcome with no covariates, many use an exact McNemar test to calculate sample size. We reviewed the approaches to sample size estimation for paired binary data and compared the sample size estimates on the same numerical examples. We used the hypothesized sample proportions for the 2 × 2 table to calculate the correlation between the marginal proportions to estimate sample size based on GEE. We solved the inside proportions based on the correlation and the marginal proportions to estimate sample size based on exact McNemar, asymptotic unconditional McNemar, and asymptotic conditional McNemar. The asymptotic unconditional McNemar test is a good approximation of GEE method by Pan. The exact McNemar is too conservative and yields unnecessarily large sample size estimates than all other methods. In the special case of a 2 × 2 table, even when a GEE approach to binary logistic regression is the planned analytic method, the asymptotic unconditional McNemar test can be used to estimate sample size. We do not recommend using an exact McNemar test. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Area estimation of environmental phenomena from NOAA-n satellite data. [TIROS N satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tappan, G. (Principal Investigator); Miller, G. E.

1982-01-01

A technique for documenting changes in size of NOAA-n pixels in order to calibrate the data for use in performing area calculations is described. Based on Earth-satellite geometry, a function for calculating the effective pixel size, measured in terms of ground area, on any given pixel was derived. The equation is an application of the law of sines plus an arclength formula. Effective pixel dimensions for NOAA 6 and 7 satellites for all pixels between nadir and the extreme view angles are presented. The NOAA 6 data were used to estimate the areas of several lakes, with an accuracy within 5%. Sources of error are discussed.

Automated sampling assessment for molecular simulations using the effective sample size

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xin; Bhatt, Divesh; Zuckerman, Daniel M.

2010-01-01

To quantify the progress in the development of algorithms and forcefields used in molecular simulations, a general method for the assessment of the sampling quality is needed. Statistical mechanics principles suggest the populations of physical states characterize equilibrium sampling in a fundamental way. We therefore develop an approach for analyzing the variances in state populations, which quantifies the degree of sampling in terms of the effective sample size (ESS). The ESS estimates the number of statistically independent configurations contained in a simulated ensemble. The method is applicable to both traditional dynamics simulations as well as more modern (e.g., multi–canonical) approaches. Our procedure is tested in a variety of systems from toy models to atomistic protein simulations. We also introduce a simple automated procedure to obtain approximate physical states from dynamic trajectories: this allows sample–size estimation in systems for which physical states are not known in advance. PMID:21221418

Consumption with Large Sip Sizes Increases Food Intake and Leads to Underestimation of the Amount Consumed

PubMed Central

Bolhuis, Dieuwerke P.; Lakemond, Catriona M. M.; de Wijk, Rene A.; Luning, Pieternel A.; de Graaf, Cees

2013-01-01

Background A number of studies have shown that bite and sip sizes influence the amount of food intake. Consuming with small sips instead of large sips means relatively more sips for the same amount of food to be consumed; people may believe that intake is higher which leads to faster satiation. This effect may be disturbed when people are distracted. Objective The objective of the study is to assess the effects of sip size in a focused state and a distracted state on ad libitum intake and on the estimated amount consumed. Design In this 3×2 cross-over design, 53 healthy subjects consumed ad libitum soup with small sips (5 g, 60 g/min), large sips (15 g, 60 g/min), and free sips (where sip size was determined by subjects themselves), in both a distracted and focused state. Sips were administered via a pump. There were no visual cues toward consumption. Subjects then estimated how much they had consumed by filling soup in soup bowls. Results Intake in the small-sip condition was ∼30% lower than in both the large-sip and free-sip conditions (P<0.001). In addition, subjects underestimated how much they had consumed in the large-sip and free-sip conditions (P<0.03). Distraction led to a general increase in food intake (P = 0.003), independent of sip size. Distraction did not influence sip size or estimations. Conclusions Consumption with large sips led to higher food intake, as expected. Large sips, that were either fixed or chosen by subjects themselves led to underestimations of the amount consumed. This may be a risk factor for over-consumption. Reducing sip or bite sizes may successfully lower food intake, even in a distracted state. PMID:23372657

Bumble bee nest abundance, foraging distance, and host-plant reproduction: implications for management and conservation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent reports of global declines in pollinator species imply an urgent need to assess native pollinator population sizes and density dependent benefits for linked plants. Here, we estimated effective population sizes (Ne) of four native bumblebee species, Bombus balteatus, B. flavifrons, B. bifariu...

TOTAL RESPIRATORY TRACT DEPOSITION OF FINE MICRON-SIZED PARTICLES IN HEALTHY ADULTS: EMPIRICIAL EQUATIONS FOR GENDER AND BREATHING PATTERN

EPA Science Inventory

An accurate dose estimation under various inhalation conditions is important for assessing both the potential health effects of pollutant particles and the therapeutic efficacy of medical aerosols. We measured total deposition fraction (TDF) of monodisperse micron-sized particles...

NMR permeability estimators in 'chalk' carbonate rocks obtained under different relaxation times and MICP size scalings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rios, Edmilson Helton; Figueiredo, Irineu; Moss, Adam Keith; Pritchard, Timothy Neil; Glassborow, Brent Anthony; Guedes Domingues, Ana Beatriz; Bagueira de Vasconcellos Azeredo, Rodrigo

2016-07-01

The effect of the selection of different nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation times for permeability estimation is investigated for a set of fully brine-saturated rocks acquired from Cretaceous carbonate reservoirs in the North Sea and Middle East. Estimators that are obtained from the relaxation times based on the Pythagorean means are compared with estimators that are obtained from the relaxation times based on the concept of a cumulative saturation cut-off. Select portions of the longitudinal (T1) and transverse (T2) relaxation-time distributions are systematically evaluated by applying various cut-offs, analogous to the Winland-Pittman approach for mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) curves. Finally, different approaches to matching the NMR and MICP distributions using different mean-based scaling factors are validated based on the performance of the related size-scaled estimators. The good results that were obtained demonstrate possible alternatives to the commonly adopted logarithmic mean estimator and reinforce the importance of NMR-MICP integration to improving carbonate permeability estimates.

RnaSeqSampleSize: real data based sample size estimation for RNA sequencing.

PubMed

Zhao, Shilin; Li, Chung-I; Guo, Yan; Sheng, Quanhu; Shyr, Yu

2018-05-30

One of the most important and often neglected components of a successful RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) experiment is sample size estimation. A few negative binomial model-based methods have been developed to estimate sample size based on the parameters of a single gene. However, thousands of genes are quantified and tested for differential expression simultaneously in RNA-Seq experiments. Thus, additional issues should be carefully addressed, including the false discovery rate for multiple statistic tests, widely distributed read counts and dispersions for different genes. To solve these issues, we developed a sample size and power estimation method named RnaSeqSampleSize, based on the distributions of gene average read counts and dispersions estimated from real RNA-seq data. Datasets from previous, similar experiments such as the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) can be used as a point of reference. Read counts and their dispersions were estimated from the reference's distribution; using that information, we estimated and summarized the power and sample size. RnaSeqSampleSize is implemented in R language and can be installed from Bioconductor website. A user friendly web graphic interface is provided at http://cqs.mc.vanderbilt.edu/shiny/RnaSeqSampleSize/ . RnaSeqSampleSize provides a convenient and powerful way for power and sample size estimation for an RNAseq experiment. It is also equipped with several unique features, including estimation for interested genes or pathway, power curve visualization, and parameter optimization.

Conducting Meta-Analyses Based on p Values

PubMed Central

van Aert, Robbie C. M.; Wicherts, Jelte M.; van Assen, Marcel A. L. M.

2016-01-01

Because of overwhelming evidence of publication bias in psychology, techniques to correct meta-analytic estimates for such bias are greatly needed. The methodology on which the p-uniform and p-curve methods are based has great promise for providing accurate meta-analytic estimates in the presence of publication bias. However, in this article, we show that in some situations, p-curve behaves erratically, whereas p-uniform may yield implausible estimates of negative effect size. Moreover, we show that (and explain why) p-curve and p-uniform result in overestimation of effect size under moderate-to-large heterogeneity and may yield unpredictable bias when researchers employ p-hacking. We offer hands-on recommendations on applying and interpreting results of meta-analyses in general and p-uniform and p-curve in particular. Both methods as well as traditional methods are applied to a meta-analysis on the effect of weight on judgments of importance. We offer guidance for applying p-uniform or p-curve using R and a user-friendly web application for applying p-uniform. PMID:27694466

Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

PubMed

Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

2015-11-01

Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fixation patterns, not clinical diagnosis, predict body size over-estimation in eating disordered women and healthy controls.

PubMed

Cornelissen, Katri K; Cornelissen, Piers L; Hancock, Peter J B; Tovée, Martin J

2016-05-01

A core feature of anorexia nervosa (AN) is an over-estimation of body size. Women with AN have a different pattern of eye-movements when judging bodies, but it is unclear whether this is specific to their diagnosis or whether it is found in anyone over-estimating body size. To address this question, we compared the eye movement patterns from three participant groups while they carried out a body size estimation task: (i) 20 women with recovering/recovered anorexia (rAN) who had concerns about body shape and weight and who over-estimated body size, (ii) 20 healthy controls who had normative levels of concern about body shape and who estimated body size accurately (iii) 20 healthy controls who had normative levels of concern about body shape but who did over-estimate body size. Comparisons between the three groups showed that: (i) accurate body size estimators tended to look more in the waist region, and this was independent of clinical diagnosis; (ii) there is a pattern of looking at images of bodies, particularly viewing the upper parts of the torso and face, which is specific to participants with rAN but which is independent of accuracy in body size estimation. Since the over-estimating controls did not share the same body image concerns that women with rAN report, their over-estimation cannot be explained by attitudinal concerns about body shape and weight. These results suggest that a distributed fixation pattern is associated with over-estimation of body size and should be addressed in treatment programs. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. (Int J Eat Disord 2016; 49:507-518). © 2016 The Authors. International Journal of Eating Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An evaluation of parturition indices in fishers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frost, H.C.; York, E.C.; Krohn, W.B.; Elowe, K.D.; Decker, T.A.; Powell, S.M.; Fuller, T.K.

1999-01-01

Fishers (Martes pennanti) are important forest carnivores and furbearers that are susceptible to overharvest. Traditional indices used to monitor fisher populations typically overestimate litter size and proportion of females that give birth. We evaluated the usefulness of 2 indices of reproduction to determine proportion of female fishers that gave birth in a particular year. We used female fishers of known age and reproductive histories to compare appearance of placental scars with incidence of pregnancy and litter size. Microscopic observation of freshly removed reproductive tracts correctly identified pregnant fishers and correctly estimated litter size in 3 of 4 instances, but gross observation of placental scars failed to correctly identify pregnant fishers and litter size. Microscopic observations of reproductive tracts in carcasses that were not fresh also failed to identify pregnant animals and litter size. We evaluated mean sizes of anterior nipples to see if different reproductive classes could be distinguished. Mean anterior nipple size of captive and wild fishers correctly identified current-year breeders from nonbreeders. Former breeders were misclassified in 4 of 13 instances. Presence of placental scars accurately predicted parturition in a small sample size of fishers, but absence of placental scars did not signify that a female did not give birth. In addition to enabling the estimation of parturition rates in live animals more accurately than traditional indices, mean anterior nipple size also provided an estimate of the percentage of adult females that successfully raised young. Though using mean anterior nipple size to index reproductive success looks promising, additional data are needed to evaluate effects of using dried, stretched pelts on nipple size for management purposes.

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Estimating linear effects in ANOVA designs: the easy way.

PubMed

Pinhas, Michal; Tzelgov, Joseph; Ganor-Stern, Dana

2012-09-01

Research in cognitive science has documented numerous phenomena that are approximated by linear relationships. In the domain of numerical cognition, the use of linear regression for estimating linear effects (e.g., distance and SNARC effects) became common following Fias, Brysbaert, Geypens, and d'Ydewalle's (1996) study on the SNARC effect. While their work has become the model for analyzing linear effects in the field, it requires statistical analysis of individual participants and does not provide measures of the proportions of variability accounted for (cf. Lorch & Myers, 1990). In the present methodological note, using both the distance and SNARC effects as examples, we demonstrate how linear effects can be estimated in a simple way within the framework of repeated measures analysis of variance. This method allows for estimating effect sizes in terms of both slope and proportions of variability accounted for. Finally, we show that our method can easily be extended to estimate linear interaction effects, not just linear effects calculated as main effects.

Prediction and Estimation of Scaffold Strength with different pore size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthu, P.; Mishra, Shubhanvit; Sri Sai Shilpa, R.; Veerendranath, B.; Latha, S.

2018-04-01

This paper emphasizes the significance of prediction and estimation of the mechanical strength of 3D functional scaffolds before the manufacturing process. Prior evaluation of the mechanical strength and structural properties of the scaffold will reduce the cost fabrication and in fact ease up the designing process. Detailed analysis and investigation of various mechanical properties including shear stress equivalence have helped to estimate the effect of porosity and pore size on the functionality of the scaffold. The influence of variation in porosity was examined by computational approach via finite element analysis (FEA) and ANSYS application software. The results designate the adequate perspective of the evolutionary method for the regulation and optimization of the intricate engineering design process.

A modified approach to estimating sample size for simple logistic regression with one continuous covariate.

PubMed

Novikov, I; Fund, N; Freedman, L S

2010-01-15

Different methods for the calculation of sample size for simple logistic regression (LR) with one normally distributed continuous covariate give different results. Sometimes the difference can be large. Furthermore, some methods require the user to specify the prevalence of cases when the covariate equals its population mean, rather than the more natural population prevalence. We focus on two commonly used methods and show through simulations that the power for a given sample size may differ substantially from the nominal value for one method, especially when the covariate effect is large, while the other method performs poorly if the user provides the population prevalence instead of the required parameter. We propose a modification of the method of Hsieh et al. that requires specification of the population prevalence and that employs Schouten's sample size formula for a t-test with unequal variances and group sizes. This approach appears to increase the accuracy of the sample size estimates for LR with one continuous covariate.

Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2003-01-01

Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

Evaluating the Contribution of Different Item Features to the Effect Size of the Gender Difference in Three-Dimensional Mental Rotation Using Automatic Item Generation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arendasy, Martin E.; Sommer, Markus

2010-01-01

In complex three-dimensional mental rotation tasks males have been reported to score up to one standard deviation higher than females. However, this effect size estimate could be compromised by the presence of gender bias at the item level, which calls the validity of purely quantitative performance comparisons into question. We hypothesized that…

Malaria prevalence metrics in low- and middle-income countries: an assessment of precision in nationally-representative surveys.

PubMed

Alegana, Victor A; Wright, Jim; Bosco, Claudio; Okiro, Emelda A; Atkinson, Peter M; Snow, Robert W; Tatem, Andrew J; Noor, Abdisalan M

2017-11-21

One pillar to monitoring progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals is the investment in high quality data to strengthen the scientific basis for decision-making. At present, nationally-representative surveys are the main source of data for establishing a scientific evidence base, monitoring, and evaluation of health metrics. However, little is known about the optimal precisions of various population-level health and development indicators that remains unquantified in nationally-representative household surveys. Here, a retrospective analysis of the precision of prevalence from these surveys was conducted. Using malaria indicators, data were assembled in nine sub-Saharan African countries with at least two nationally-representative surveys. A Bayesian statistical model was used to estimate between- and within-cluster variability for fever and malaria prevalence, and insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) use in children under the age of 5 years. The intra-class correlation coefficient was estimated along with the optimal sample size for each indicator with associated uncertainty. Results suggest that the estimated sample sizes for the current nationally-representative surveys increases with declining malaria prevalence. Comparison between the actual sample size and the modelled estimate showed a requirement to increase the sample size for parasite prevalence by up to 77.7% (95% Bayesian credible intervals 74.7-79.4) for the 2015 Kenya MIS (estimated sample size of children 0-4 years 7218 [7099-7288]), and 54.1% [50.1-56.5] for the 2014-2015 Rwanda DHS (12,220 [11,950-12,410]). This study highlights the importance of defining indicator-relevant sample sizes to achieve the required precision in the current national surveys. While expanding the current surveys would need additional investment, the study highlights the need for improved approaches to cost effective sampling.

Population biology of Avena : IX. Gene flow and neighborhood size in relation to microgeographic variation in Avena barbata.

PubMed

Rai, Kedar N; Jain, Subodh K

1982-06-01

Pollen and seed dispersal patterns were analyzed in both natural and experimental populations of Avena barbata. Localized estimates of gene flow rates and plant densities gave estimates of neighborhood size in the range of 40 to 400 plants; the estimates of mean rate and distance of gene flow seemed to vary widely due to variable wind direction, rodent activity, microsite heterogeneity, etc. The relative sizes of neighborhoods in several populations were correlated with the patchy distribution of different genotypes (scored for lemma color and leaf sheath hairiness) within short distances, but patch sizes had a wide range among different sites. Highly localized gene flow patterns seemed to account for the observed pattern of highly patchy variation even when the dispersal curves for both pollen and seed were platykurtic in many cases. Measures of the stability of patches in terms of their size, dispersion in space and genetic structure in time are needed in order to sort out the relative roles of founder effects, random drift (due to small neighborhood size), and highly localized selection. However, our observations suggest that many variables and stochastic processes are involved in such studies so as to allow only weak inference about the underlying role of natural selection, drift and factors of population regulatien.

Sample Size Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Trials from Japanese ADNI Serial Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Fujishima, Motonobu; Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Maikusa, Norihide; Kuwano, Ryozo; Iwatsubo, Takeshi; Matsuda, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

Little is known about the sample sizes required for clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-modifying treatments using atrophy measures from serial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the Japanese population. The primary objective of the present study was to estimate how large a sample size would be needed for future clinical trials for AD-modifying treatments in Japan using atrophy measures of the brain as a surrogate biomarker. Sample sizes were estimated from the rates of change of the whole brain and hippocampus by the k-means normalized boundary shift integral (KN-BSI) and cognitive measures using the data of 537 Japanese Alzheimer's Neuroimaging Initiative (J-ADNI) participants with a linear mixed-effects model. We also examined the potential use of ApoE status as a trial enrichment strategy. The hippocampal atrophy rate required smaller sample sizes than cognitive measures of AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Inclusion of ApoE status reduced sample sizes for AD and MCI patients in the atrophy measures. These results show the potential use of longitudinal hippocampal atrophy measurement using automated image analysis as a progression biomarker and ApoE status as a trial enrichment strategy in a clinical trial of AD-modifying treatment in Japanese people.

Judging arrival times of incoming traffic vehicles is not a prerequisite for safely crossing an intersection: Differential effects of vehicle size and type in passive judgment and active driving tasks.

PubMed

Mathieu, Julie; Bootsma, Reinoud J; Berthelon, Catherine; Montagne, Gilles

2017-02-01

Using a fixed-base driving simulator we compared the effects of the size and type of traffic vehicles (i.e., normal-sized or double-sized cars or motorcycles) approaching an intersection in two different tasks. In the perceptual judgment task, passively moving participants estimated when a traffic vehicle would reach the intersection for actual arrival times (ATs) of 1, 2, or 3s. In line with earlier findings, ATs were generally underestimated, the more so the longer the actual AT. Results revealed that vehicle size affected judgments in particular for the larger actual ATs (2 and 3s), with double-sized vehicles then being judged as arriving earlier than normal-sized vehicles. Vehicle type, on the other hand, affected judgments at the smaller actual ATs (1 and 2s), with cars then being judged as arriving earlier than motorcycles. In the behavioral task participants actively drove the simulator to cross the intersection by passing through a gap in a train of traffic. Analyses of the speed variations observed during the active intersection-crossing task revealed that the size and type of vehicles in the traffic train did not affect driving behavior in the same way as in the AT judgment task. First, effects were considerably smaller, affecting driving behavior only marginally. Second, effects were opposite to expectations based on AT judgments: driver approach speeds were smaller (rather than larger) when confronted with double-sized vehicles as compared to their normal-sized counterparts and when confronted with cars as compared to motorcycles. Finally, the temporality of the effects was different on the two tasks: vehicle size affected driver approach speed in the final stages of approach rather than early on, while vehicle type affected driver approach speed early on rather than later. Overall, we conclude that the active control of approach to the intersection is not based on successive judgments of traffic vehicle arrival times. These results thereby question the general belief that arrival time estimates are crucial for safe interaction with traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Model-Based Approach to Inventory Stratification

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2006-01-01

Forest inventory programs report estimates of forest variables for areas of interest ranging in size from municipalities to counties to States and Provinces. Classified satellite imagery has been shown to be an effective source of ancillary data that, when used with stratified estimation techniques, contributes to increased precision with little corresponding increase...

Where do all the maternal effects go? Variation in offspring body size through ontogeny in the live-bearing fish Poecilia parae.

PubMed

Lindholm, Anna K; Hunt, John; Brooks, Robert

2006-12-22

Maternal effects are an important source of adaptive variation, but little is known about how they vary throughout ontogeny. We estimate the contribution of maternal effects, sire genetic and environmental variation to offspring body size from birth until 1 year of age in the live-bearing fish Poecilia parae. In both the sexes, maternal effects on body size were initially high in juveniles, and then declined to zero at sexual maturity. In sons, this was accompanied by a sharp rise in sire genetic variance, consistent with the expression of Y-linked loci affecting male size. In daughters, all variance components decreased with time, consistent with compensatory growth. There were significant negative among-dam correlations between early body size and the timing of sexual maturity in both sons and daughters. However, there was no relationship between early life maternal effects and adult longevity, suggesting that maternal effects, although important early in life, may not always influence late life-history traits.

Estimation of effectiveness of three methods of feral cat population control by use of a simulation model.

PubMed

McCarthy, Robert J; Levine, Stephen H; Reed, J Michael

2013-08-15

To predict effectiveness of 3 interventional methods of population control for feral cat colonies. Population model. Estimates of vital data for feral cats. Data were gathered from the literature regarding the demography and mating behavior of feral cats. An individual-based stochastic simulation model was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of trap-neuter-release (TNR), lethal control, and trap-vasectomy-hysterectomy-release (TVHR) in decreasing the size of feral cat populations. TVHR outperformed both TNR and lethal control at all annual capture probabilities between 10% and 90%. Unless > 57% of cats were captured and neutered annually by TNR or removed by lethal control, there was minimal effect on population size. In contrast, with an annual capture rate of ≥ 35%, TVHR caused population size to decrease. An annual capture rate of 57% eliminated the modeled population in 4,000 days by use of TVHR, whereas > 82% was required for both TNR and lethal control. When the effect of fraction of adult cats neutered on kitten and young juvenile survival rate was included in the analysis, TNR performed progressively worse and could be counterproductive, such that population size increased, compared with no intervention at all. TVHR should be preferred over TNR for management of feral cats if decrease in population size is the goal. This model allowed for many factors related to the trapping program and cats to be varied and should be useful for determining the financial and person-effort commitments required to have a desired effect on a given feral cat population.

Size effect on the deformation mechanisms of nanocrystalline platinum thin films.

PubMed

Shu, Xinyu; Kong, Deli; Lu, Yan; Long, Haibo; Sun, Shiduo; Sha, Xuechao; Zhou, Hao; Chen, Yanhui; Mao, Shengcheng; Liu, Yinong

2017-10-16

This paper reports a study of time-resolved deformation process at the atomic scale of a nanocrystalline Pt thin film captured in situ under a transmission electron microscope. The main mechanism of plastic deformation was found to evolve from full dislocation activity-enabled plasticity in large grains (with grain size d > 10 nm), to partial dislocation plasticity in smaller grains (with grain size 10 nm < d < 6 nm), and grain boundary-mediated plasticity in the matrix with grain sizes d < 6 nm. The critical grain size for the transition from full dislocation activity to partial dislocation activity was estimated based on consideration of stacking fault energy. For grain boundary-mediated plasticity, the possible contributions to strain rate of grain creep, grain sliding and grain rotation to plastic deformation were estimated using established models. The contribution of grain creep is found to be negligible, the contribution of grain rotation is effective but limited in magnitude, and grain sliding is suggested to be the dominant deformation mechanism in nanocrystalline Pt thin films. This study provided the direct evidence of these deformation processes at the atomic scale.

Finite-Time and -Size Scalings in the Evaluation of Large Deviation Functions. Numerical Analysis in Continuous Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Nemoto, Takahiro; Lecomte, Vivien

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provide a numerical tool allowing their study, by means of simulating a large number of copies of the system, which are subjected to a selection rule that favors the rare trajectories of interest. However, such algorithms are plagued by finite simulation time- and finite population size- effects that can render their use delicate. Using the continuous-time cloning algorithm, we analyze the finite-time and finite-size scalings of estimators of the large deviation functions associated to the distribution of the rare trajectories. We use these scalings in order to propose a numerical approach which allows to extract the infinite-time and infinite-size limit of these estimators.

A simple shape-free model for pore-size estimation with positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Ken; Hyodo, Toshio

2013-06-01

Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy is one of the methods for estimating pore size in insulating materials. We present a shape-free model to be used conveniently for such analysis. A basic model in classical picture is modified by introducing a parameter corresponding to an effective size of the positronium (Ps). This parameter is adjusted so that its Ps-lifetime to pore-size relation merges smoothly with that of the well-established Tao-Eldrup model (with modification involving the intrinsic Ps annihilation rate) applicable to very small pores. The combined model, i.e., modified Tao-Eldrup model for smaller pores and the modified classical model for larger pores, agrees surprisingly well with the quantum-mechanics based extended Tao-Eldrup model, which deals with Ps trapped in and thermally equilibrium with a rectangular pore.

The Minicommunity Design to Assess Indirect Effects of Vaccination.

PubMed

Halloran, M Elizabeth

2012-08-01

We propose the minicommunity design to estimate indirect effects of vaccination. Establishing indirect effects of vaccination in unvaccinated subpopulations could have important implications for global vaccine policies. In the minicommunity design, the household or other small transmission unit serves as the cluster in which to estimate indirect effects of vaccination, similar to studies in larger communities to estimate indirect, total, and overall effects. Examples from the literature include studies in small transmission units to estimate indirect effects of pertussis, pneumococcal, influenza, and cholera vaccines. We characterize the minicommunity design by several methodologic considerations, including the assignment mechanism, ascertainment, the role of transmission outside the transmission unit, and the relation of the size of the transmission unit to number of people vaccinated. The minicommunity study for indirect effects is contrasted with studies to estimate vaccine effects on infectiousness and protective effects under conditions of household exposure within small transmission units. The minicommunity design can be easily implemented in individually randomized studies by enrolling and following-up members of households of the randomized individuals. The methodology for the minicommunity design for estimating indirect effects of vaccination deserves much future research.

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods

PubMed Central

Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2014-01-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture–recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture–recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998–3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916–2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture–recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture–recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. PMID:25336306

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

PubMed

Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2015-10-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

Depictive and metric body size estimation in anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mölbert, Simone Claire; Klein, Lukas; Thaler, Anne; Mohler, Betty J; Brozzo, Chiara; Martus, Peter; Karnath, Hans-Otto; Zipfel, Stephan; Giel, Katrin Elisabeth

2017-11-01

A distorted representation of one's own body is a diagnostic criterion and core psychopathology of both anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). Despite recent technical advances in research, it is still unknown whether this body image disturbance is characterized by body dissatisfaction and a low ideal weight and/or includes a distorted perception or processing of body size. In this article, we provide an update and meta-analysis of 42 articles summarizing measures and results for body size estimation (BSE) from 926 individuals with AN, 536 individuals with BN and 1920 controls. We replicate findings that individuals with AN and BN overestimate their body size as compared to controls (ES=0.63). Our meta-regression shows that metric methods (BSE by direct or indirect spatial measures) yield larger effect sizes than depictive methods (BSE by evaluating distorted pictures), and that effect sizes are larger for patients with BN than for patients with AN. To interpret these results, we suggest a revised theoretical framework for BSE that accounts for differences between depictive and metric BSE methods regarding the underlying body representations (conceptual vs. perceptual, implicit vs. explicit). We also discuss clinical implications and argue for the importance of multimethod approaches to investigate body image disturbance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Invasive Australian Acacia seed banks: Size and relationship with stem diameter in the presence of gall-forming biological control agents.

PubMed

Strydom, Matthys; Veldtman, Ruan; Ngwenya, Mzabalazo Z; Esler, Karen J

2017-01-01

Australian Acacia are invasive in many parts of the world. Despite significant mechanical and biological efforts to control their invasion and spread, soil-stored seed banks prevent their effective and sustained removal. In response South Africa has had a strong focus on employing seed reducing biological control agents to deal with Australian Acacia invasion, a programme that is considered as being successful. To provide a predictive understanding for their management, seed banks of four invasive Australian acacia species (Acacia longifolia, A. mearnsii, A. pycnantha and A. saligna) were studied in the Western Cape of South Africa. Across six to seven sites for each species, seed bank sizes were estimated from dense, monospecific stands by collecting 30 litter and soil samples. Average estimated seed bank size was large (1017 to 17261 seed m-2) as was annual input into the seed bank, suggesting that these seed banks are not residual but are replenished in size annually. A clear relationship between seed bank size and stem diameter was established indicating that mechanical clearing should be conducted shortly after fire-stimulated recruitment events or within old populations when seed banks are small. In dense, monospecific stands seed-feeding biological control agents are not effective in reducing seed bank size.

Effects of lidar pulse density and sample size on a model-assisted approach to estimate forest inventory variables

Treesearch

Jacob Strunk; Hailemariam Temesgen; Hans-Erik Andersen; James P. Flewelling; Lisa Madsen

2012-01-01

Using lidar in an area-based model-assisted approach to forest inventory has the potential to increase estimation precision for some forest inventory variables. This study documents the bias and precision of a model-assisted (regression estimation) approach to forest inventory with lidar-derived auxiliary variables relative to lidar pulse density and the number of...

Estimating energy-momentum and angular momentum near null infinity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helfer, Adam D.

2010-04-15

The energy-momentum and angular momentum contained in a spacelike two-surface of spherical topology are estimated by joining the two-surface to null infinity via an approximate no-incoming-radiation condition. The result is a set of gauge-invariant formulas for energy-momentum and angular momentum which should be applicable to much numerical work; it also gives estimates of the finite-size effects.

A closer look at the size of the gaze-liking effect: a preregistered replication.

PubMed

Tipples, Jason; Pecchinenda, Anna

2018-04-30

This study is a direct replication of gaze-liking effect using the same design, stimuli and procedure. The gaze-liking effect describes the tendency for people to rate objects as more likeable when they have recently seen a person repeatedly gaze toward rather than away from the object. However, as subsequent studies show considerable variability in the size of this effect, we sampled a larger number of participants (N = 98) than the original study (N = 24) to gain a more precise estimate of the gaze-liking effect size. Our results indicate a much smaller standardised effect size (d z  = 0.02) than that of the original study (d z  = 0.94). Our smaller effect size was not due to general insensitivity to eye-gaze effects because the same sample showed a clear (d z  = 1.09) gaze-cuing effect - faster reaction times when eyes looked toward vs away from target objects. We discuss the implications of our findings for future studies wishing to study the gaze-liking effect.

Cobble cam: Grain-size measurements of sand to boulder from digital photographs and autocorrelation analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warrick, J.A.; Rubin, D.M.; Ruggiero, P.; Harney, J.N.; Draut, A.E.; Buscombe, D.

2009-01-01

A new application of the autocorrelation grain size analysis technique for mixed to coarse sediment settings has been investigated. Photographs of sand- to boulder-sized sediment along the Elwha River delta beach were taken from approximately 1??2 m above the ground surface, and detailed grain size measurements were made from 32 of these sites for calibration and validation. Digital photographs were found to provide accurate estimates of the long and intermediate axes of the surface sediment (r2 > 0??98), but poor estimates of the short axes (r2 = 0??68), suggesting that these short axes were naturally oriented in the vertical dimension. The autocorrelation method was successfully applied resulting in total irreducible error of 14% over a range of mean grain sizes of 1 to 200 mm. Compared with reported edge and object-detection results, it is noted that the autocorrelation method presented here has lower error and can be applied to a much broader range of mean grain sizes without altering the physical set-up of the camera (~200-fold versus ~6-fold). The approach is considerably less sensitive to lighting conditions than object-detection methods, although autocorrelation estimates do improve when measures are taken to shade sediments from direct sunlight. The effects of wet and dry conditions are also evaluated and discussed. The technique provides an estimate of grain size sorting from the easily calculated autocorrelation standard error, which is correlated with the graphical standard deviation at an r2 of 0??69. The technique is transferable to other sites when calibrated with linear corrections based on photo-based measurements, as shown by excellent grain-size analysis results (r2 = 0??97, irreducible error = 16%) from samples from the mixed grain size beaches of Kachemak Bay, Alaska. Thus, a method has been developed to measure mean grain size and sorting properties of coarse sediments. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS): Effects of Container Size Adjustments on Estimates of Alcohol Consumption Across Hispanic National Groups

PubMed Central

Mills, Britain A.; Harris, T. Robert

2012-01-01

Objective: This study was conducted to examine discrepancies in alcohol consumption estimates between a self-reported standard quantity—frequency measure and an adjusted version based on respondents’ typically used container size. Method: Using a multistage cluster sample design, 5,224 Hispanic individuals 18 years of age and older were selected from the household population in five metropolitan areas of the United States: Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles. The survey-weighted response rate was 76%. Personal interviews lasting an average of 1 hour were conducted in respondents’ homes in either English or Spanish. Results: The overall effect of container adjustment was to increase estimates of ethanol consumption by 68% for women (range across Hispanic groups: 17%–99%) and 30% for men (range: 14%–42%). With the exception of female Cuban American, Mexican American, and South/Central American beer drinkers and male Cuban American wine drinkers, all percentage differences between unadjusted and container-adjusted estimates were positive. Second, container adjustments produced the largest change for volume of distilled spirits, followed by wine and beer. Container size adjustments generally produced larger percentage increases in consumption estimates for the higher volume drinkers, especially the upper tertile of female drinkers. Conclusions: Self-reported alcohol consumption based on standard drinks underreports consumption when compared with reports based on the amount of alcohol poured into commonly used containers. PMID:22152669

Nonindependence and sensitivity analyses in ecological and evolutionary meta-analyses.

PubMed

Noble, Daniel W A; Lagisz, Malgorzata; O'dea, Rose E; Nakagawa, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Meta-analysis is an important tool for synthesizing research on a variety of topics in ecology and evolution, including molecular ecology, but can be susceptible to nonindependence. Nonindependence can affect two major interrelated components of a meta-analysis: (i) the calculation of effect size statistics and (ii) the estimation of overall meta-analytic estimates and their uncertainty. While some solutions to nonindependence exist at the statistical analysis stages, there is little advice on what to do when complex analyses are not possible, or when studies with nonindependent experimental designs exist in the data. Here we argue that exploring the effects of procedural decisions in a meta-analysis (e.g. inclusion of different quality data, choice of effect size) and statistical assumptions (e.g. assuming no phylogenetic covariance) using sensitivity analyses are extremely important in assessing the impact of nonindependence. Sensitivity analyses can provide greater confidence in results and highlight important limitations of empirical work (e.g. impact of study design on overall effects). Despite their importance, sensitivity analyses are seldom applied to problems of nonindependence. To encourage better practice for dealing with nonindependence in meta-analytic studies, we present accessible examples demonstrating the impact that ignoring nonindependence can have on meta-analytic estimates. We also provide pragmatic solutions for dealing with nonindependent study designs, and for analysing dependent effect sizes. Additionally, we offer reporting guidelines that will facilitate disclosure of the sources of nonindependence in meta-analyses, leading to greater transparency and more robust conclusions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Meta-analysis of time-series studies of air pollution and mortality: effects of gases and particles and the influence of cause of death, age, and season.

PubMed

Stieb, David M; Judek, Stan; Burnett, Richard T

2002-04-01

A comprehensive, systematic synthesis was conducted of daily time-series studies of air pollution and mortality from around the world. Estimates of effect sizes were extracted from 109 studies, from single- and multipollutant models, and by cause of death, age, and season. Random effects pooled estimates of excess all-cause mortality (single-pollutant models) associated with a change in pollutant concentration equal to the mean value among a representative group of cities were 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.4%) per 31.3 microg/m3 particulate matter (PM) of median diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10); 1.7% (1.2-2.2%) per 1.1 ppm CO; 2.8% (2.1-3.5%) per 24.0 ppb NO2; 1.6% (1.1-2.0%) per 31.2 ppb O3; and 0.9% (0.7-1.2%) per 9.4 ppb SO2 (daily maximum concentration for O3, daily average for others). Effect sizes were generally reduced in multipollutant models, but remained significantly different from zero for PM10 and SO2. Larger effect sizes were observed for respiratory mortality for all pollutants except O3. Heterogeneity among studies was partially accounted for by differences in variability of pollutant concentrations, and results were robust to alternative approaches to selecting estimates from the pool of available candidates. This synthesis leaves little doubt that acute air pollution exposure is a significant contributor to mortality.

Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest

PubMed Central

Ellison, Aaron M.; Jackson, Scott

2015-01-01

Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m2 and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that could be used in conservation assessments and long-term monitoring at Harvard Forest and other northeastern USA forests. PMID:26020008

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

2006-01-01

Using a stochastic model, we estimated that, on average, breeding females produced 0.57 young females/nesting season. We combined this estimate of productivity with our annual estimates of adult survival and an assumed population growth rate of 1.0, then solved for an estimate of first-year survival (0.40). Under these conditions the predicted stable age distribution of breeding females (i.e., the nesting population) was 15.1% 1-year-old, 4.1% 2-year-old first-time breeders, and 80.8% 2-year-old and older, experienced breeders. We subjected this stochastic model to perturbation analyses to examine the relative effects of demographic parameters on k. The relative effects of productivity and adult survival on the population growth rate were 0.26 and 0.72, respectively. Thus, compared to productivity, proportionally equivalent changes in annual survival would have 2.8 times the effect on k. However, when we examined annual variation in predicted population size using standardized regression coefficients, productivity explained twice as much variation as annual survival. Thus, management actions focused on changes in survival or productivity have the ability to influence population size; however, substantially larger changes in productivity are required to influence population trends.

Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process.

PubMed

Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

2011-09-01

We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.

Effective population size and genetic structure of a Piute ground squirrel (Spermophilus mollis) population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Antolin, Michael F.; Van Horne, Beatrice; Berger, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Piute ground squirrels (Spermophilus mollis) are distributed continuously in habitat dominated by native shrubs and perennial grasses in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in Idaho, U.S.A. This habitat is being fragmented and replaced by exotic annual plants, changing it to a wildfire-dominated system that provides poor habitat for ground squirrels. To assess potential effects of this fragmentation on ground squirrel populations, we combined an estimate of effective population size (Ne) based upon a demographic study with a population genetic analysis. The study area included three subpopulations separated from each other by 8–13 km. The ratio of effective population size to census number (Ne/N) was 0.57. Combining Ne/N with dispersal distances from a radio-tracking study, we calculated that neighborhood size was 62.2 ha, which included between 204 and 480 individuals. Our population genetic analysis (based on randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and microsatellite markers) showed relatively low levels of genetic differentiation (Qpopulations 0.07–0.10) between subpopulations and no inbreeding within subpopulations (f = 0.0003). These estimates of population subdivision translate into an effective migration rate (Nem) of 2.3–3.3 per year, which represents a high level of gene flow. Invasion by exotics will reduce the overall productivity of the habitat, and will lead to isolation among subpopulations if favorable habitat patches become isolated.

Re-estimating sample size in cluster randomised trials with active recruitment within clusters.

PubMed

van Schie, S; Moerbeek, M

2014-08-30

Often only a limited number of clusters can be obtained in cluster randomised trials, although many potential participants can be recruited within each cluster. Thus, active recruitment is feasible within the clusters. To obtain an efficient sample size in a cluster randomised trial, the cluster level and individual level variance should be known before the study starts, but this is often not the case. We suggest using an internal pilot study design to address this problem of unknown variances. A pilot can be useful to re-estimate the variances and re-calculate the sample size during the trial. Using simulated data, it is shown that an initially low or high power can be adjusted using an internal pilot with the type I error rate remaining within an acceptable range. The intracluster correlation coefficient can be re-estimated with more precision, which has a positive effect on the sample size. We conclude that an internal pilot study design may be used if active recruitment is feasible within a limited number of clusters. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimation of Tooth Size Discrepancies among Different Malocclusion Groups.

PubMed

Hasija, Narender; Bala, Madhu; Goyal, Virender

2014-05-01

Regards and Tribute: Late Dr Narender Hasija was a mentor and visionary in the light of knowledge and experience. We pay our regards with deepest gratitude to the departed soul to rest in peace. Bolton's ratios help in estimating overbite, overjet relationships, the effects of contemplated extractions on posterior occlusion, incisor relationships and identification of occlusal misfit produced by tooth size discrepancies. To determine any difference in tooth size discrepancy in anterior as well as overall ratio in different malocclusions and comparison with Bolton's study. After measuring the teeth on all 100 patients, Bolton's analysis was performed. Results were compared with Bolton's means and standard deviations. The results were also subjected to statistical analysis. Results show that the mean and standard deviations of ideal occlusion cases are comparable with those Bolton but, when the mean and standard deviation of malocclusion groups are compared with those of Bolton, the values of standard deviation are higher, though the mean is comparable. How to cite this article: Hasija N, Bala M, Goyal V. Estimation of Tooth Size Discrepancies among Different Malocclusion Groups. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2014;7(2):82-85.

Power and Sample Size Calculations for Logistic Regression Tests for Differential Item Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Zhushan

2014-01-01

Logistic regression is a popular method for detecting uniform and nonuniform differential item functioning (DIF) effects. Theoretical formulas for the power and sample size calculations are derived for likelihood ratio tests and Wald tests based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators for the logistic regression model.…

An Investigation of Sample Size Splitting on ATFIND and DIMTEST

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Socha, Alan; DeMars, Christine E.

2013-01-01

Modeling multidimensional test data with a unidimensional model can result in serious statistical errors, such as bias in item parameter estimates. Many methods exist for assessing the dimensionality of a test. The current study focused on DIMTEST. Using simulated data, the effects of sample size splitting for use with the ATFIND procedure for…

sGD software for estimating spatially explicit indices of genetic diversity

Treesearch

A. J. Shirk; Samuel Cushman

2011-01-01

Anthropogenic landscape changes have greatly reduced the population size, range and migration rates of many terrestrial species. The small local effective population size of remnant populations favours loss of genetic diversity leading to reduced fitness and adaptive potential, and thus ultimately greater extinction risk. Accurately quantifying genetic diversity is...

Improved Data Reporting in "RQES": From Volumes 49, 59, to 84

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Jerry R.

2014-01-01

This commentary provides a review of changes in data reporting in "Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport" from Volumes 49 and 59 to 84. Improvements were noted in that all articles reported means, standard deviations, and sample sizes, while most (87%) articles reported an estimate of effect size ("ES"). Additional…

Power and Precision in Confirmatory Factor Analytic Tests of Measurement Invariance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meade, Adam W.; Bauer, Daniel J.

2007-01-01

This study investigates the effects of sample size, factor overdetermination, and communality on the precision of factor loading estimates and the power of the likelihood ratio test of factorial invariance in multigroup confirmatory factor analysis. Although sample sizes are typically thought to be the primary determinant of precision and power,…

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

UNIVERSAL RELATIONSHIP OF TOTAL LUNG DEPOSITION OF PARTICLES IN NORMAL ADULTS WITH PARTICLE SIZE AND BREATHING PATTERN

EPA Science Inventory

Particulate matter in the air is known for causing adverse health effects and yet estimating lung deposition dose is difficult because exposure conditions vary widely. We measured total deposition fraction (TDF) of monodisperse aerosols in the size range of 0.04 - 5 micron in dia...

Improvement of vertical profiles of raindrop size distribution from micro rain radar using 2D video disdrometer measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adirosi, E.; Baldini, L.; Roberto, N.; Gatlin, P.; Tokay, A.

2016-03-01

A measurement scheme aimed at investigating precipitation properties based on collocated disdrometer and profiling instruments is used in many experimental campaigns. Raindrop size distribution (RSD) estimated by disdrometer is referred to the ground level; the collocated profiling instrument is supposed to provide complementary estimation at different heights of the precipitation column above the instruments. As part of the Special Observation Period 1 of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, conducted between 5 September and 6 November 2012, a K-band vertically pointing micro rain radar (MRR) and a 2D video disdrometer (2DVD) were installed close to each other at a site in the historic center of Rome (Italy). The raindrop size distributions collected by 2D video disdrometer are considered to be fairly accurate within the typical sizes of drops. Vertical profiles of raindrop sizes up to 1085 m are estimated from the Doppler spectra measured by the micro rain radar with a height resolution of 35 m. Several issues related to vertical winds, attenuation correction, Doppler spectra aliasing, and range-Doppler ambiguity limit the performance of MRR in heavy precipitation or in convection, conditions that frequently occur in late summer or in autumn in Mediterranean regions. In this paper, MRR Doppler spectra are reprocessed, exploiting the 2DVD measurements at ground to estimate the effects of vertical winds at 105 m (the most reliable MRR lower height), in order to provide a better estimation of vertical profiles of raindrop size distribution from MRR spectra. Results show that the reprocessing procedure leads to a better agreement between the reflectivity computed at 105 m from the reprocessed MRR spectra and that obtained from the 2DVD data. Finally, vertical profiles of MRR-estimated RSDs and their relevant moments (namely median volume diameter and reflectivity) are presented and discussed in order to investigate the microstructure of rain both in stratiform and convective conditions.

Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

2009-01-01

Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often 50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.

Kalman filter approach for uncertainty quantification in time-resolved laser-induced incandescence.

PubMed

Hadwin, Paul J; Sipkens, Timothy A; Thomson, Kevin A; Liu, Fengshan; Daun, Kyle J

2018-03-01

Time-resolved laser-induced incandescence (TiRe-LII) data can be used to infer spatially and temporally resolved volume fractions and primary particle size distributions of soot-laden aerosols, but these estimates are corrupted by measurement noise as well as uncertainties in the spectroscopic and heat transfer submodels used to interpret the data. Estimates of the temperature, concentration, and size distribution of soot primary particles within a sample aerosol are typically made by nonlinear regression of modeled spectral incandescence decay, or effective temperature decay, to experimental data. In this work, we employ nonstationary Bayesian estimation techniques to infer aerosol properties from simulated and experimental LII signals, specifically the extended Kalman filter and Schmidt-Kalman filter. These techniques exploit the time-varying nature of both the measurements and the models, and they reveal how uncertainty in the estimates computed from TiRe-LII data evolves over time. Both techniques perform better when compared with standard deterministic estimates; however, we demonstrate that the Schmidt-Kalman filter produces more realistic uncertainty estimates.

The influence of genetic and environmental factors in estimations of current body size, desired body size, and body dissatisfaction.

PubMed

Wade, T D; Bulik, C M; Heath, A C; Martin, N G; Eaves, L J

2001-08-01

The objective was to investigate the genetic epidemiology of figural stimuli. Standard figural stimuli were available from 5,325 complete twin pairs: 1,751 (32.9%) were monozygotic females, 1,068 (20.1%) were dizygotic females, 752 (14.1%) were monozygotic males, 495 (9.3%) were dizygotic males, and 1,259 (23.6%) were dizygotic male-female pairs. Univariate twin analyses were used to examine the influences on the individual variation in current body size and ideal body size. These data were analysed separately for men and women in each of five age groups. A factorial analysis of variance, with polychoric correlations between twin pairs as the dependent variable, and age, sex, zygosity, and the three interaction terms (age x sex, age x zygosity, sex x zygosity) as independent variables, was used to examine trends across the whole data set. Results showed genetic influences had the largest impact on the individual variation in current body size measures, whereas non-shared environmental influences were associated with the majority of individual variation in ideal body size. There was a significant main effect of zygosity (heritability) in predicting polychoric correlations for current body size and body dissatisfaction. There was a significant main effect of gender and zygosity in predicting ideal body size, with a gender x zygosity interaction. In common with BMI, heritability is important in influencing the estimation of current body size. Selection of desired body size for both men and women is more strongly influenced by environmental factors.

Using known populations of pronghorn to evaluate sampling plans and estimators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kraft, K.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Samuelson, J.M.; Allen, S.H.

1995-01-01

Although sampling plans and estimators of abundance have good theoretical properties, their performance in real situations is rarely assessed because true population sizes are unknown. We evaluated widely used sampling plans and estimators of population size on 3 known clustered distributions of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Our criteria were accuracy of the estimate, coverage of 95% confidence intervals, and cost. Sampling plans were combinations of sampling intensities (16, 33, and 50%), sample selection (simple random sampling without replacement, systematic sampling, and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement), and stratification. We paired sampling plans with suitable estimators (simple, ratio, and probability proportional to size). We used area of the sampling unit as the auxiliary variable for the ratio and probability proportional to size estimators. All estimators were nearly unbiased, but precision was generally low (overall mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 29). Coverage of 95% confidence intervals was only 89% because of the highly skewed distribution of the pronghorn counts and small sample sizes, especially with stratification. Stratification combined with accurate estimates of optimal stratum sample sizes increased precision, reducing the mean CV from 33 without stratification to 25 with stratification; costs increased 23%. Precise results (mean CV = 13) but poor confidence interval coverage (83%) were obtained with simple and ratio estimators when the allocation scheme included all sampling units in the stratum containing most pronghorn. Although areas of the sampling units varied, ratio estimators and probability proportional to size sampling did not increase precision, possibly because of the clumped distribution of pronghorn. Managers should be cautious in using sampling plans and estimators to estimate abundance of aggregated populations.

Modeling misidentification errors that result from use of genetic tags in capture-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yoshizaki, J.; Brownie, C.; Pollock, K.H.; Link, W.A.

2011-01-01

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) such as DNA fingerprints (genetic tags) are used to identify individual animals. For example, when misidentification leads to multiple identities being assigned to an animal, traditional estimators tend to overestimate population size. Accounting for misidentification in capture-recapture models requires detailed understanding of the mechanism. Using genetic tags as an example, we outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies when individual identification is based on natural tags that are consistent over time (non-evolving natural tags). We first assume a single sample is obtained per animal for each capture event, and then generalize to the case where multiple samples (such as hair or scat samples) are collected per animal per capture occasion. We introduce methods for estimating population size and, using a simulation study, we show that our new estimators perform well for cases with moderately high capture probabilities or high misidentification rates. In contrast, conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Hypothesis testing for band size detection of high-dimensional banded precision matrices.

PubMed

An, Baiguo; Guo, Jianhua; Liu, Yufeng

2014-06-01

Many statistical analysis procedures require a good estimator for a high-dimensional covariance matrix or its inverse, the precision matrix. When the precision matrix is banded, the Cholesky-based method often yields a good estimator of the precision matrix. One important aspect of this method is determination of the band size of the precision matrix. In practice, crossvalidation is commonly used; however, we show that crossvalidation not only is computationally intensive but can be very unstable. In this paper, we propose a new hypothesis testing procedure to determine the band size in high dimensions. Our proposed test statistic is shown to be asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis, and its theoretical power is studied. Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of our testing procedure.

The Area Coverage of Geophysical Fields as a Function of Sensor Field-of View

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Key, Jeffrey R.

1994-01-01

In many remote sensing studies of geophysical fields such as clouds, land cover, or sea ice characteristics, the fractional area coverage of the field in an image is estimated as the proportion of pixels that have the characteristic of interest (i.e., are part of the field) as determined by some thresholding operation. The effect of sensor field-of-view on this estimate is examined by modeling the unknown distribution of subpixel area fraction with the beta distribution, whose two parameters depend upon the true fractional area coverage, the pixel size, and the spatial structure of the geophysical field. Since it is often not possible to relate digital number, reflectance, or temperature to subpixel area fraction, the statistical models described are used to determine the effect of pixel size and thresholding operations on the estimate of area fraction for hypothetical geophysical fields. Examples are given for simulated cumuliform clouds and linear openings in sea ice, whose spatial structures are described by an exponential autocovariance function. It is shown that the rate and direction of change in total area fraction with changing pixel size depends on the true area fraction, the spatial structure, and the thresholding operation used.

Blinded and unblinded internal pilot study designs for clinical trials with count data.

PubMed

Schneider, Simon; Schmidli, Heinz; Friede, Tim

2013-07-01

Internal pilot studies are a popular design feature to address uncertainties in the sample size calculations caused by vague information on nuisance parameters. Despite their popularity, only very recently blinded sample size reestimation procedures for trials with count data were proposed and their properties systematically investigated. Although blinded procedures are favored by regulatory authorities, practical application is somewhat limited by fears that blinded procedures are prone to bias if the treatment effect was misspecified in the planning. Here, we compare unblinded and blinded procedures with respect to bias, error rates, and sample size distribution. We find that both procedures maintain the desired power and that the unblinded procedure is slightly liberal whereas the actual significance level of the blinded procedure is close to the nominal level. Furthermore, we show that in situations where uncertainty about the assumed treatment effect exists, the blinded estimator of the control event rate is biased in contrast to the unblinded estimator, which results in differences in mean sample sizes in favor of the unblinded procedure. However, these differences are rather small compared to the deviations of the mean sample sizes from the sample size required to detect the true, but unknown effect. We demonstrate that the variation of the sample size resulting from the blinded procedure is in many practically relevant situations considerably smaller than the one of the unblinded procedures. The methods are extended to overdispersed counts using a quasi-likelihood approach and are illustrated by trials in relapsing multiple sclerosis. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Interspecific competition alters nonlinear selection on offspring size in the field.

PubMed

Marshall, Dustin J; Monro, Keyne

2013-02-01

Offspring size is one of the most important life-history traits with consequences for both the ecology and evolution of most organisms. Surprisingly, formal estimates of selection on offspring size are rare, and the degree to which selection (particularly nonlinear selection) varies among environments remains poorly explored. We estimate linear and nonlinear selection on offspring size, module size, and senescence rate for a sessile marine invertebrate in the field under three different intensities of interspecific competition. The intensity of competition strongly modified the strength and form of selection acting on offspring size. We found evidence for differences in nonlinear selection across the three environments. Our results suggest that the fitness returns of a given offspring size depend simultaneously on their environmental context, and on the context of other offspring traits. Offspring size effects can be more pervasive with regards to their influence on the fitness returns of other traits than previously recognized, and we suggest that the evolution of offspring size cannot be understood in isolation from other traits. Overall, variability in the form and strength of selection on offspring size in nature may reduce the efficacy of selection on offspring size and maintain variation in this trait. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Responsiveness of Endoscopic Indices of Disease Activity for Crohn's Disease.

PubMed

Khanna, Reena; Zou, GuangYong; Stitt, Larry; Feagan, Brian G; Sandborn, William J; Rutgeerts, Paul; McDonald, John W D; Dubcenco, Elena; Fogel, Ronald; Panaccione, Remo; Jairath, Vipul; Nelson, Sigrid; Shackelton, Lisa M; Huang, Bidan; Zhou, Qian; Robinson, Anne M; Levesque, Barrett G; D'Haens, Geert

2017-10-01

The Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity (CDEIS) and the Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) are commonly used to assess Crohn's disease (CD) activity; however neither instrument is fully validated. We evaluated the responsiveness to change of the SES-CD and CDEIS using data from a trial of adalimumab, a drug therapy of known efficacy. Paired video recordings (N=112) of colonoscopies (baseline and week 8-12) obtained from patients with CD who participated in a trial of adalimumab therapy were reviewed in random order, in duplicate, by four central readers (56 pairs of videos by 2 groups of readers). Responsiveness of the SES-CD and the CDEIS was evaluated by comparing correlations between the observed and pre-specified predictions of change scores for these endoscopic indices with a global endoscopic evaluation of severity (GELS), a patient reported outcome (PRO2), and the Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI), and by calculation of the standardized effect size, and Guyatt's Responsiveness statistic (GRS) using 2 definitions of change; (1) treatment assignment and (2) an absolute change in total PRO2 of 50. The potential application of effect size estimates was demonstrated by calculating hypothetical sample sizes for comparing two independent groups. The impact of removing stenosis as an index item and adjusting for the number of segments observed was also assessed. Changes in both endoscopic instruments and the GELS were highly correlated. The SES-CD displayed numerically higher effect sizes for both definitions of change. The standardized effect size and GRS estimates (95% confidence interval) for the SES-CD based on treatment assignment were 0.84 (0.53, 1.15) and 0.79 (0.48, 1.09). Corresponding values for the CDEIS were 0.72 (0.42, 1.02) and 0.75 (0.45, 1.06). The standardized effect size and GRS estimates for the SES-CD based on an absolute change in total PRO2 of 50 points or greater were 0.76 (0.49, 1.02) and 0.93 (0.64, 1.21). Corresponding values for CDEIS were 0.70 (0.44, 0.97), 0.83 (0.55, 1.10). Removal of stenosis as an index item and adjusting for observed segments did not improve responsiveness estimates. Although both the SES-CD and CDEIS are valid measures of endoscopic disease activity that are moderately responsive to changes in endoscopic disease activity, the SES-CD displayed numerically greater responsiveness in this data set.

Inheritance of Vertebral Number in the Three-Spined Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

PubMed Central

Alho, Jussi S.; Leinonen, Tuomas; Merilä, Juha

2011-01-01

Intraspecific variation in the number of vertebrae is taxonomically widespread, and both genetic and environmental factors are known to contribute to this variation. However, the relative importance of genetic versus environmental influences on variation in vertebral number has seldom been investigated with study designs that minimize bias due to non-additive genetic and maternal influences. We used a paternal half-sib design and animal model analysis to estimate heritability and causal components of variance in vertebral number in three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We found that both the number of vertebrae (h2 = 0.36) and body size (h2 = 0.42) were moderately heritable, whereas the influence of maternal effects was estimated to be negligible. While the number of vertebrae had a positive effect on body size, no evidence for a genetic correlation between body size and vertebral number was detected. However, there was a significant positive environmental correlation between these two traits. Our results support the generalization-in accordance with results from a review of heritability estimates for vertebral number in fish, reptiles and mammals-that the number of vertebrae appears to be moderately to highly heritable in a wide array of species. In the case of the three-spined stickleback, independent evolution of body size and number of vertebrae should be possible given the low genetic correlation between the two traits. PMID:21603609

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

Estimating Patient Dose from X-ray Tube Output Metrics: Automated Measurement of Patient Size from CT Images Enables Large-scale Size-specific Dose Estimates

PubMed Central

Ikuta, Ichiro; Warden, Graham I.; Andriole, Katherine P.; Khorasani, Ramin

2014-01-01

Purpose To test the hypothesis that patient size can be accurately calculated from axial computed tomographic (CT) images, including correction for the effects of anatomy truncation that occur in routine clinical CT image reconstruction. Materials and Methods Institutional review board approval was obtained for this HIPAA-compliant study, with waiver of informed consent. Water-equivalent diameter (DW) was computed from the attenuation-area product of each image within 50 adult CT scans of the thorax and of the abdomen and pelvis and was also measured for maximal field of view (FOV) reconstructions. Linear regression models were created to compare DW with the effective diameter (Deff) used to select size-specific volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) conversion factors as defined in report 204 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine. Linear regression models relating reductions in measured DW to a metric of anatomy truncation were used to compensate for the effects of clinical image truncation. Results In the thorax, DW versus Deff had an R2 of 0.51 (n = 200, 50 patients at four anatomic locations); in the abdomen and pelvis, R2 was 0.90 (n = 150, 50 patients at three anatomic locations). By correcting for image truncation, the proportion of clinically reconstructed images with an extracted DW within ±5% of the maximal FOV DW increased from 54% to 90% in the thorax (n = 3602 images) and from 95% to 100% in the abdomen and pelvis (6181 images). Conclusion The DW extracted from axial CT images is a reliable measure of patient size, and varying degrees of clinical image truncation can be readily corrected. Automated measurement of patient size combined with CT radiation exposure metrics may enable patient-specific dose estimation on a large scale. © RSNA, 2013 PMID:24086075

Empirical assessment of published effect sizes and power in the recent cognitive neuroscience and psychology literature.

PubMed

Szucs, Denes; Ioannidis, John P A

2017-03-01

We have empirically assessed the distribution of published effect sizes and estimated power by analyzing 26,841 statistical records from 3,801 cognitive neuroscience and psychology papers published recently. The reported median effect size was D = 0.93 (interquartile range: 0.64-1.46) for nominally statistically significant results and D = 0.24 (0.11-0.42) for nonsignificant results. Median power to detect small, medium, and large effects was 0.12, 0.44, and 0.73, reflecting no improvement through the past half-century. This is so because sample sizes have remained small. Assuming similar true effect sizes in both disciplines, power was lower in cognitive neuroscience than in psychology. Journal impact factors negatively correlated with power. Assuming a realistic range of prior probabilities for null hypotheses, false report probability is likely to exceed 50% for the whole literature. In light of our findings, the recently reported low replication success in psychology is realistic, and worse performance may be expected for cognitive neuroscience.

Seasonal variation in size-dependent survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): Performance of multistate capture-mark-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Horton, G.E.

2008-01-01

We estimated the magnitude and shape of size-dependent survival (SDS) across multiple sampling intervals for two cohorts of stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) juveniles using multistate capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models. Simulations designed to test the effectiveness of multistate models for detecting SDS in our system indicated that error in SDS estimates was low and that both time-invariant and time-varying SDS could be detected with sample sizes of >250, average survival of >0.6, and average probability of capture of >0.6, except for cases of very strong SDS. In the field (N ??? 750, survival 0.6-0.8 among sampling intervals, probability of capture 0.6-0.8 among sampling occasions), about one-third of the sampling intervals showed evidence of SDS, with poorer survival of larger fish during the age-2+ autumn and quadratic survival (opposite direction between cohorts) during age-1+ spring. The varying magnitude and shape of SDS among sampling intervals suggest a potential mechanism for the maintenance of the very wide observed size distributions. Estimating SDS using multistate CMR models appears complementary to established approaches, can provide estimates with low error, and can be used to detect intermittent SDS. ?? 2008 NRC Canada.

Improved population estimates through the use of auxiliary information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.; Ralph, C.J.; Scott, J.M.

1981-01-01

When estimating the size of a population of birds, the investigator may have, in addition to an estimator based on a statistical sample, information on one of several auxiliary variables, such as: (1) estimates of the population made on previous occasions, (2) measures of habitat variables associated with the size of the population, and (3) estimates of the population sizes of other species that correlate with the species of interest. Although many studies have described the relationships between each of these kinds of data and the population size to be estimated, very little work has been done to improve the estimator by incorporating such auxiliary information. A statistical methodology termed 'empirical Bayes' seems to be appropriate to these situations. The potential that empirical Bayes methodology has for improved estimation of the population size of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is explored. In the example considered, three empirical Bayes estimators were found to reduce the error by one-fourth to one-half of that of the usual estimator.

Children's estimates of food portion size: the development and evaluation of three portion size assessment tools for use with children.

PubMed

Foster, E; Matthews, J N S; Lloyd, J; Marshall, L; Mathers, J C; Nelson, M; Barton, K L; Wrieden, W L; Cornelissen, P; Harris, J; Adamson, A J

2008-01-01

A number of methods have been developed to assist subjects in providing an estimate of portion size but their application in improving portion size estimation by children has not been investigated systematically. The aim was to develop portion size assessment tools for use with children and to assess the accuracy of children's estimates of portion size using the tools. The tools were food photographs, food models and an interactive portion size assessment system (IPSAS). Children (n 201), aged 4-16 years, were supplied with known quantities of food to eat, in school. Food leftovers were weighed. Children estimated the amount of each food using each tool, 24 h after consuming the food. The age-specific portion sizes represented were based on portion sizes consumed by children in a national survey. Significant differences were found between the accuracy of estimates using the three tools. Children of all ages performed well using the IPSAS and food photographs. The accuracy and precision of estimates made using the food models were poor. For all tools, estimates of the amount of food served were more accurate than estimates of the amount consumed. Issues relating to reporting of foods left over which impact on estimates of the amounts of foods actually consumed require further study. The IPSAS has shown potential for assessment of dietary intake with children. Before practical application in assessment of dietary intake of children the tool would need to be expanded to cover a wider range of foods and to be validated in a 'real-life' situation.

Estimation of body-size traits by photogrammetry in large mammals to inform conservation.

PubMed

Berger, Joel

2012-10-01

Photography, including remote imagery and camera traps, has contributed substantially to conservation. However, the potential to use photography to understand demography and inform policy is limited. To have practical value, remote assessments must be reasonably accurate and widely deployable. Prior efforts to develop noninvasive methods of estimating trait size have been motivated by a desire to answer evolutionary questions, measure physiological growth, or, in the case of illegal trade, assess economics of horn sizes; but rarely have such methods been directed at conservation. Here I demonstrate a simple, noninvasive photographic technique and address how knowledge of values of individual-specific metrics bears on conservation policy. I used 10 years of data on juvenile moose (Alces alces) to examine whether body size and probability of survival are positively correlated in cold climates. I investigated whether the presence of mothers improved juvenile survival. The posited latter relation is relevant to policy because harvest of adult females has been permitted in some Canadian and American jurisdictions under the assumption that probability of survival of young is independent of maternal presence. The accuracy of estimates of head sizes made from photographs exceeded 98%. The estimates revealed that overwinter juvenile survival had no relation to the juvenile's estimated mass (p < 0.64) and was more strongly associated with maternal presence (p < 0.02) than winter snow depth (p < 0.18). These findings highlight the effects on survival of a social dynamic (the mother-young association) rather than body size and suggest a change in harvest policy will increase survival. Furthermore, photographic imaging of growth of individual juvenile muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) over 3 Arctic winters revealed annual variability in size, which supports the idea that noninvasive monitoring may allow one to detect how some environmental conditions ultimately affect body growth. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Supersaturation Control using Analytical Crystal Size Distribution Estimator for Temperature Dependent in Nucleation and Crystal Growth Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahari, Zakirah Mohd; Zubaidah Adnan, Siti; Kanthasamy, Ramesh; Saleh, Suriyati; Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Abdul

2018-03-01

The specification of the crystal product is usually given in terms of crystal size distribution (CSD). To this end, optimal cooling strategy is necessary to achieve the CSD. The direct design control involving analytical CSD estimator is one of the approaches that can be used to generate the set-point. However, the effects of temperature on the crystal growth rate are neglected in the estimator. Thus, the temperature dependence on the crystal growth rate needs to be considered in order to provide an accurate set-point. The objective of this work is to extend the analytical CSD estimator where Arrhenius expression is employed to cover the effects of temperature on the growth rate. The application of this work is demonstrated through a potassium sulphate crystallisation process. Based on specified target CSD, the extended estimator is capable of generating the required set-point where a proposed controller successfully maintained the operation at the set-point to achieve the target CSD. Comparison with other cooling strategies shows a reduction up to 18.2% of the total number of undesirable crystals generated from secondary nucleation using linear cooling strategy is achieved.

Accounting for rainfall evaporation using dual-polarization radar and mesoscale model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallardy, Quinn; Fox, Neil I.

2018-02-01

Implementation of dual-polarization radar should allow for improvements in quantitative precipitation estimates due to dual-polarization capability allowing for the retrieval of the second moment of the gamma drop size distribution. Knowledge of the shape of the DSD can then be used in combination with mesoscale model data to estimate the motion and evaporation of each size of drop falling from the height at which precipitation is observed by the radar to the surface. Using data from Central Missouri at a range between 130 and 140 km from the operational National Weather Service radar a rain drop tracing scheme was developed to account for the effects of evaporation, where individual raindrops hitting the ground were traced to the point in space and time where they interacted with the radar beam. The results indicated evaporation played a significant role in radar rainfall estimation in situations where the atmosphere was relatively dry. Improvements in radar estimated rainfall were also found in these situations by accounting for evaporation. The conclusion was made that the effects of raindrop evaporation were significant enough to warrant further research into the inclusion high resolution model data in the radar rainfall estimation process for appropriate locations.

Re-use of pilot data and interim analysis of pivotal data in MRMC studies: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Weijie; Samuelson, Frank; Sahiner, Berkman; Petrick, Nicholas

2017-03-01

Novel medical imaging devices are often evaluated with multi-reader multi-case (MRMC) studies in which radiologists read images of patient cases for a specified clinical task (e.g., cancer detection). A pilot study is often used to measure the effect size and variance parameters that are necessary for sizing a pivotal study (including sizing readers, non-diseased and diseased cases). Due to the practical difficulty of collecting patient cases or recruiting clinical readers, some investigators attempt to include the pilot data as part of their pivotal study. In other situations, some investigators attempt to perform an interim analysis of their pivotal study data based upon which the sample sizes may be re-estimated. Re-use of the pilot data or interim analyses of the pivotal data may inflate the type I error of the pivotal study. In this work, we use the Roe and Metz model to simulate MRMC data under the null hypothesis (i.e., two devices have equal diagnostic performance) and investigate the type I error rate for several practical designs involving re-use of pilot data or interim analysis of pivotal data. Our preliminary simulation results indicate that, under the simulation conditions we investigated, the inflation of type I error is none or only marginal for some design strategies (e.g., re-use of patient data without re-using readers, and size re-estimation without using the effect-size estimated in the interim analysis). Upon further verifications, these are potentially useful design methods in that they may help make a study less burdensome and have a better chance to succeed without substantial loss of the statistical rigor.

Interspecific hybridization contributes to high genetic diversity and apparent effective population size in an endemic population of mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula maculosa)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Jeffrey L.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Lavretsky, Philip; Rezsutek, Michael; Johnson, William P.; McCracken, Kevin G.

2014-01-01

Under drift-mutation equilibrium, genetic diversity is expected to be correlated with effective population size (Ne). Changes in population size and gene flow are two important processes that can cause populations to deviate from this expected relationship. In this study, we used DNA sequences from six independent loci to examine the influence of these processes on standing genetic diversity in endemic mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) and geographically widespread mallards (A. platyrhynchos), two species known to hybridize. Mottled ducks have an estimated census size that is about two orders-of-magnitude smaller than that of mallards, yet these two species have similar levels of genetic diversity, especially at nuclear DNA. Coalescent analyses suggest that a population expansion in the mallard at least partly explains this discrepancy, but the mottled duck harbors higher genetic diversity and apparent N e than expected for its census size even after accounting for a population decline. Incorporating gene flow into the model, however, reduced the estimated Ne of mottled ducks to 33 % of the equilibrium Ne and yielded an estimated Ne consistent with census size. We also examined the utility of these loci to distinguish among mallards, mottled ducks, and their hybrids. Most putatively pure individuals were correctly assigned to species, but the power for detecting hybrids was low. Although hybridization with mallards potentially poses a conservation threat to mottled ducks by creating a risk of extinction by hybridization, introgression of mallard alleles has helped maintain high genetic diversity in mottled ducks and might be important for the adaptability and survival of this species.

Estimating the settling velocity of bioclastic sediment using common grain-size analysis techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cuttler, Michael V. W.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Falter, James L.; Buscombe, Daniel D.

2017-01-01

Most techniques for estimating settling velocities of natural particles have been developed for siliciclastic sediments. Therefore, to understand how these techniques apply to bioclastic environments, measured settling velocities of bioclastic sedimentary deposits sampled from a nearshore fringing reef in Western Australia were compared with settling velocities calculated using results from several common grain-size analysis techniques (sieve, laser diffraction and image analysis) and established models. The effects of sediment density and shape were also examined using a range of density values and three different models of settling velocity. Sediment density was found to have a significant effect on calculated settling velocity, causing a range in normalized root-mean-square error of up to 28%, depending upon settling velocity model and grain-size method. Accounting for particle shape reduced errors in predicted settling velocity by 3% to 6% and removed any velocity-dependent bias, which is particularly important for the fastest settling fractions. When shape was accounted for and measured density was used, normalized root-mean-square errors were 4%, 10% and 18% for laser diffraction, sieve and image analysis, respectively. The results of this study show that established models of settling velocity that account for particle shape can be used to estimate settling velocity of irregularly shaped, sand-sized bioclastic sediments from sieve, laser diffraction, or image analysis-derived measures of grain size with a limited amount of error. Collectively, these findings will allow for grain-size data measured with different methods to be accurately converted to settling velocity for comparison. This will facilitate greater understanding of the hydraulic properties of bioclastic sediment which can help to increase our general knowledge of sediment dynamics in these environments.

A meta-analysis of lesser prairie-chicken nesting and brood-rearing habitats: implications for habitat management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hagen, Christian A.; Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.

2013-01-01

The distribution and range of lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) has been reduced by >90% since European settlement of the Great Plains of North America. Currently, lesser prairie-chickens occupy 3 general vegetation communities: sand sagebrush (Artemisia filifolia), sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii), and mixed-grass prairies juxtaposed with Conservation Reserve Program grasslands. As a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act, there is a need for a synthesis that characterizes habitat structure rangewide. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis of vegetation characteristics at nest sites and brood habitats to determine whether there was an overall effect (Hedges' d) of habitat selection and to estimate average (95% CI) habitat characteristics at use sites. We estimated effect sizes (di) from the difference between use (nests and brood sites) and random sampling sites for each study (n = 14), and derived an overall effect size (d++). There was a general effect for habitat selection as evidenced by low levels of variation in effect sizes across studies and regions. There was a small to medium effect (d++) = 0.20-0.82) of selection for greater vertical structure (visual obstruction) by nesting females in both vegetation communities, and selection against bare ground (d++ = 0.20-0.58). Females with broods exhibited less selectivity for habitat components except for vertical structure. The variation of d++ was greater during nesting than brooding periods, signifying a seasonal shift in habitat use, and perhaps a greater range of tolerance for brood-rearing habitat. The overall estimates of vegetation cover were consistent with those provided in management guidelines for the species.

Comparative analyses of basal rate of metabolism in mammals: data selection does matter.

PubMed

Genoud, Michel; Isler, Karin; Martin, Robert D

2018-02-01

Basal rate of metabolism (BMR) is a physiological parameter that should be measured under strictly defined experimental conditions. In comparative analyses among mammals BMR is widely used as an index of the intensity of the metabolic machinery or as a proxy for energy expenditure. Many databases with BMR values for mammals are available, but the criteria used to select metabolic data as BMR estimates have often varied and the potential effect of this variability has rarely been questioned. We provide a new, expanded BMR database reflecting compliance with standard criteria (resting, postabsorptive state; thermal neutrality; adult, non-reproductive status for females) and examine potential effects of differential selectivity on the results of comparative analyses. The database includes 1739 different entries for 817 species of mammals, compiled from the original sources. It provides information permitting assessment of the validity of each estimate and presents the value closest to a proper BMR for each entry. Using different selection criteria, several alternative data sets were extracted and used in comparative analyses of (i) the scaling of BMR to body mass and (ii) the relationship between brain mass and BMR. It was expected that results would be especially dependent on selection criteria with small sample sizes and with relatively weak relationships. Phylogenetically informed regression (phylogenetic generalized least squares, PGLS) was applied to the alternative data sets for several different clades (Mammalia, Eutheria, Metatheria, or individual orders). For Mammalia, a 'subsampling procedure' was also applied, in which random subsamples of different sample sizes were taken from each original data set and successively analysed. In each case, two data sets with identical sample size and species, but comprising BMR data with different degrees of reliability, were compared. Selection criteria had minor effects on scaling equations computed for large clades (Mammalia, Eutheria, Metatheria), although less-reliable estimates of BMR were generally about 12-20% larger than more-reliable ones. Larger effects were found with more-limited clades, such as sciuromorph rodents. For the relationship between BMR and brain mass the results of comparative analyses were found to depend strongly on the data set used, especially with more-limited, order-level clades. In fact, with small sample sizes (e.g. <100) results often appeared erratic. Subsampling revealed that sample size has a non-linear effect on the probability of a zero slope for a given relationship. Depending on the species included, results could differ dramatically, especially with small sample sizes. Overall, our findings indicate a need for due diligence when selecting BMR estimates and caution regarding results (even if seemingly significant) with small sample sizes. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Annual survival and population estimates of Mountain Plovers in Southern Phillips County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2003-01-01

Information about the demography of declining species is especially relevant to their conservation and future recovery. Knowledge of survival rates and population size can be used to assess long-term viability and population trends, both of which are of interest to conservation biologists. We used capture–recapture techniques to study the demography of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, in 1995–2000. We used the robust design to estimate annual survival (φ), conditional capture (p and r) and recapture (c) probabilities, and the annual population size (N) in the presence of temporary emigration. The results support age-specific differences in annual survival that are a function of juvenile body mass and are correlated with the area occupied by prairie dogs. Body mass had a positive effect on juvenile survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of body mass on juvenile survival was 0.77 (95% ci = 0.25, 1.28) on a logit scale. A measure of plover habitat (the area occupied by prairie dogs) appeared to have no effect on survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on survival was –0.00004 (95% ci = –0.00003, –0.0001) on a logit scale. Estimated annual apparent survival rates were 0.46–0.49 for juveniles and 0.68 for adult plovers. Using these estimates, the life span of a Mountain Plover was 1.92 ± 0.17 years (mean ± 1 se) from time of capture as a chick. Resighting rates positively influenced capture probabilities; the slope coefficient for the additive resighting effect was –0.49 (95% ci = –0.86, –0.11) on a logit scale. The size of this adult Mountain Plover population was estimated at 95–180 adults annually. Population size closely tracked annual changes in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs, with both plovers and prairie dogs rapidly recovering from an outbreak of sylvatic plague in the mid-1990s. Given the low annual survival rates and low mean life expectancy of Mountain Plovers, we conclude that sustainable local populations are currently maintained by annual rates of productivity greater than those for other ground-nesting birds.

[Study on accuracy of endoscopic polyp size measurement by disposable graduated biopsy forceps].

PubMed

Liu, Ping; Zhang, Xiu; Lin, Hui-ping; Jin, Hei-jing; Leng, Qiang; Zhang, Jin-hao; Zhang, Yang; Yao, Hang; Wu, Kun-lan

2013-12-01

To study the accuracy of endoscopic polyp size measurement by disposable graduated biopsy forceps (DGBF). Accurate gradation of 1 mm was made in the wire of disposable graduated biopsy forceps, which was used to measure the size of tumors under endoscopy. Fifty-eight polyps from 43 patients underwent endoscopy in our department from May to June 2013 were enrolled. Size of polyp was measured and compared among DGBF, routine estimation and direct measurement after resection. The accuracy of polyp size measurement was investigated by four colonoscopists who had finished at least 2000 procedures of colonoscopy. The mean diameter of post-polypectomy measurement was (1.02±0.84) cm. Diameter was less than 1 cm in 36 polyps, 1 to 2 cm in 15, and over 2 cm in 7. The mean diameter of visual estimation was (1.29±1.07) cm, and the difference was significant as compared with actual size (P=0.000). The mean diameter measured by DGBF was (1.02±0.82) cm, and the difference was not significant as compared with actual size (P=0.775). The ratio of visual estimation to actual size was 1.29±0.31, and DGBF estimation to actual size was 1.02±0.11 with significant difference (P=0.000). The accurate rate of DGBF in estimating polyp size was 77.6% (45/58), which was obviously higher as compared to visual estimation [19.0% (11/58), P=0.000]. The accuracy of DGBF as a scale in the estimation of poly size increases as compared to visual estimation.

The Effects of Small Sample Size on Identifying Polytomous DIF Using the Liu-Agresti Estimator of the Cumulative Common Odds Ratio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carvajal, Jorge; Skorupski, William P.

2010-01-01

This study is an evaluation of the behavior of the Liu-Agresti estimator of the cumulative common odds ratio when identifying differential item functioning (DIF) with polytomously scored test items using small samples. The Liu-Agresti estimator has been proposed by Penfield and Algina as a promising approach for the study of polytomous DIF but no…

Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the United States, 1940 to 2000

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aaronson, Daniel; Mazumder, Bhashkar

2008-01-01

We estimate trends in intergenerational economic mobility by matching men in the Census to synthetic parents in the prior generation. We find that mobility increased from 1950 to 1980 but has declined sharply since 1980. While our estimator places greater weight on location effects than the standard intergenerational coefficient, the size of the…

DOSESCREEN: a computer program to aid dose placement

Treesearch

Kimberly C. Smith; Jacqueline L. Robertson

1984-01-01

Careful selection of an experimental design for a bioassay substantially improves the precision of effective dose (ED) estimates. Design considerations typically include determination of sample size, dose selection, and allocation of subjects to doses. DOSESCREEN is a computer program written to help investigators select an efficient design for the estimation of an...

On measuring bird habitat: influence of observer variability and sample size

Treesearch

William M. Block; Kimberly A. With; Michael L. Morrison

1987-01-01

We studied the effects of observer variability when estimating vegetation characteristics at 75 0.04-ha bird plots. Observer estimates were significantly different for 31 of 49 variables. Multivariate analyses showed significant interobserver differences for five of the seven classes of variables studied. Variable classes included the height, number, and diameter of...

Estimation of sample size and testing power (Part 4).

PubMed

Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

2012-01-01

Sample size estimation is necessary for any experimental or survey research. An appropriate estimation of sample size based on known information and statistical knowledge is of great significance. This article introduces methods of sample size estimation of difference test for data with the design of one factor with two levels, including sample size estimation formulas and realization based on the formulas and the POWER procedure of SAS software for quantitative data and qualitative data with the design of one factor with two levels. In addition, this article presents examples for analysis, which will play a leading role for researchers to implement the repetition principle during the research design phase.

The Effects of Violent Video Games on Aggression: A Meta-Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sherry, John L.

2001-01-01

Cumulates findings across existing empirical research on the effects of violent video games to estimate overall effect size and discern important trends and moderating variables. Suggests there is a smaller effect of violent video games on aggression than has been found with television violence on aggression. (SG)

Patient-specific Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk for Pediatric Chest CT

PubMed Central

Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0–16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) or dose–length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Results: Organ dose normalized by tube current–time product or CTDIvol decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). Conclusion: The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. © RSNA, 2011 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1 PMID:21467251

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest CT.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M; Colsher, James G; Frush, Donald P

2011-06-01

To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI(vol)) or dose-length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Organ dose normalized by tube current-time product or CTDI(vol) decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1. RSNA, 2011

The Effects of Metal on Size Specific Dose Estimation (SSDE) in CT: A Phantom Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsanea, Maram M.

Over the past number of years there has been a significant increase in the awareness of radiation dose from use of computed tomography (CT). Efforts have been made to reduce radiation dose from CT and to better quantify dose being delivered. However, unfortunately, these dose metrics such as CTDI vol are not a specific patient dose. In 2011, the size-specific dose estimation (SSDE) was introduced by AAPM TG-204 which accounts for the physical size of the patient. However, the approach presented in TG-204 ignores the importance of the attenuation differences in the body. In 2014, a newer methodology that accounted for tissue attenuation was introduced by the AAPM TG-220 based on the concept of water equivalent diameter, Dw. One of the limitation of TG-220 is that there is no estimation of the dose while highly attenuating objects such as metal is present in the body. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the accuracy of size-specific dose estimates in CT in the presence of simulated metal prostheses using a conventional PMMA CTDI phantom at different phantom diameter (body and head) and beam energy. Titanium, Cobalt- chromium and stainless steel alloys rods were used in the study. Two approaches were used as introduced by AAPM TG-204 and 220 utilizing the effective diameter and the Dw calculations. From these calculations, conversion factors have been derived that could be applied to the measured CTDIvol to convert it to specific patient dose, or size specific dose estimate, (SSDE). Radiation dose in tissue (f-factor = 0.94) was measured at various chamber positions with the presence of metal. Following, an average weighted tissue dose (AWTD) was calculated in a manner similar to the weighted CTDI (CTDIw). In general, for the 32 cm body phantom SSDE220 provided more accurate estimates of AWTD than did SSDE204. For smaller patient size, represented by the 16 cm head phantom, the SSDE204 was a more accurate estimate of AWTD that that of SSDE220. However, as the quantity of metal increased it was shown that SSDE220 became more accurate where the percentage error was within +/-4% of the AWTD. In addition, the acquired axial CT images were reconstructed both with and without a single energy metal artifact reduction algorithm (SEMAR), to study the effect on Dw. The Dw calculations used to determine SSDE220 varied by less than 0.2% between the images reconstructed with and without the metal artifact reduction algorithm. For the majority of the scans percentage error observed with 100 kVp is less than that with 120 kVp for SSDE204. Finally, a comparison of the manually calculated SSDE220 and that calculated by the Radimetrics software, showed an overestimation of SSDE values reported by the software compared to the manually calculated measurements which is due to an underestimation of Dw values calculated by the software. This underestimation resulted from including the slices effected by the cone beam artifact in SSDE calculations.

Sexual dimorphism in human cranial trait scores: effects of population, age, and body size.

PubMed

Garvin, Heather M; Sholts, Sabrina B; Mosca, Laurel A

2014-06-01

Sex estimation from the skull is commonly performed by physical and forensic anthropologists using a five-trait scoring system developed by Walker. Despite the popularity of this method, validation studies evaluating its accuracy across a variety of samples are lacking. Furthermore, it remains unclear what other intrinsic or extrinsic variables are related to the expression of these traits. In this study, cranial trait scores and postcranial measurements were collected from four diverse population groups (U.S. Whites, U.S. Blacks, medieval Nubians, and Arikara Native Americans) following Walker's protocols (total n = 499). Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to evaluate the accuracy of these traits in sex estimation, and to test for the effects of population, age, and body size on trait expressions. Results revealed significant effects of population on all trait scores. Sample-specific correct sex classification rates ranged from 74% to 94%, with an overall accuracy of 85% for the pooled sample. Classification performance varied among the traits (best for glabella and mastoid scores and worst for nuchal scores). Furthermore, correlations between traits were weak or nonsignificant, suggesting that different factors may influence individual traits. Some traits displayed correlations with age and/or postcranial size that were significant but weak, and within-population analyses did not reveal any consistent relationships between these traits across all groups. These results indicate that neither age nor body size plays a large role in trait expression, and thus does not need to be incorporated into sex estimation methods. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Seismogenic width controls aspect ratios of earthquake ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Huihui; Yang, Hongfeng

2017-03-01

We investigate the effect of seismogenic width on aspect ratios of earthquake ruptures by using numerical simulations of strike-slip faulting and an energy balance criterion near rupture tips. If the seismogenic width is smaller than a critical value, then ruptures cannot break the entire fault, regardless of the size of the nucleation zone. The seismic moments of these self-arresting ruptures increase with the nucleation size, forming nucleation-related events. The aspect ratios increase with the seismogenic width but are smaller than 8. In contrast, ruptures become breakaway and tend to have high aspect ratios (>8) if the seismogenic width is sufficiently large. But the critical nucleation size is larger than the theoretical estimate for an unbounded fault. The eventual seismic moments of breakaway ruptures do not depend on the nucleation size. Our results suggest that estimating final earthquake magnitude from the nucleation phase may only be plausible on faults with small seismogenic width.

Sizing and Lifecycle Cost Analysis of an Ares V Composite Interstage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Troy; Smeltzer, Stan; Grenoble, Ray; Mason, Brian; Rosario, Sev; Fairbairn, Bob

2012-01-01

The Interstage Element of the Ares V launch vehicle was sized using a commercially available structural sizing software tool. Two different concepts were considered, a metallic design and a composite design. Both concepts were sized using similar levels of analysis fidelity and included the influence of design details on each concept. Additionally, the impact of the different manufacturing techniques and failure mechanisms for composite and metallic construction were considered. Significant details were included in analysis models of each concept, including penetrations for human access, joint connections, as well as secondary loading effects. The designs and results of the analysis were used to determine lifecycle cost estimates for the two Interstage designs. Lifecycle cost estimates were based on industry provided cost data for similar launch vehicle components. The results indicated that significant mass as well as cost savings are attainable for the chosen composite concept as compared with a metallic option.

speed-ne: Software to simulate and estimate genetic effective population size (Ne ) from linkage disequilibrium observed in single samples.

PubMed

Hamilton, Matthew B; Tartakovsky, Maria; Battocletti, Amy

2018-05-01

The genetic effective population size, N e , can be estimated from the average gametic disequilibrium (r2^) between pairs of loci, but such estimates require evaluation of assumptions and currently have few methods to estimate confidence intervals. speed-ne is a suite of matlab computer code functions to estimate Ne^ from r2^ with a graphical user interface and a rich set of outputs that aid in understanding data patterns and comparing multiple estimators. speed-ne includes functions to either generate or input simulated genotype data to facilitate comparative studies of Ne^ estimators under various population genetic scenarios. speed-ne was validated with data simulated under both time-forward and time-backward coalescent models of genetic drift. Three classes of estimators were compared with simulated data to examine several general questions: what are the impacts of microsatellite null alleles on Ne^, how should missing data be treated, and does disequilibrium contributed by reduced recombination among some loci in a sample impact Ne^. Estimators differed greatly in precision in the scenarios examined, and a widely employed Ne^ estimator exhibited the largest variances among replicate data sets. speed-ne implements several jackknife approaches to estimate confidence intervals, and simulated data showed that jackknifing over loci and jackknifing over individuals provided ~95% confidence interval coverage for some estimators and should be useful for empirical studies. speed-ne provides an open-source extensible tool for estimation of Ne^ from empirical genotype data and to conduct simulations of both microsatellite and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data types to develop expectations and to compare Ne^ estimators. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Geometric k-nearest neighbor estimation of entropy and mutual information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lord, Warren M.; Sun, Jie; Bollt, Erik M.

2018-03-01

Nonparametric estimation of mutual information is used in a wide range of scientific problems to quantify dependence between variables. The k-nearest neighbor (knn) methods are consistent, and therefore expected to work well for a large sample size. These methods use geometrically regular local volume elements. This practice allows maximum localization of the volume elements, but can also induce a bias due to a poor description of the local geometry of the underlying probability measure. We introduce a new class of knn estimators that we call geometric knn estimators (g-knn), which use more complex local volume elements to better model the local geometry of the probability measures. As an example of this class of estimators, we develop a g-knn estimator of entropy and mutual information based on elliptical volume elements, capturing the local stretching and compression common to a wide range of dynamical system attractors. A series of numerical examples in which the thickness of the underlying distribution and the sample sizes are varied suggest that local geometry is a source of problems for knn methods such as the Kraskov-Stögbauer-Grassberger estimator when local geometric effects cannot be removed by global preprocessing of the data. The g-knn method performs well despite the manipulation of the local geometry. In addition, the examples suggest that the g-knn estimators can be of particular relevance to applications in which the system is large, but the data size is limited.

A standardized sampling protocol for channel catfish in prairie streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vokoun, Jason C.; Rabeni, Charles F.

2001-01-01

Three alternative gears—an AC electrofishing raft, bankpoles, and a 15-hoop-net set—were used in a standardized manner to sample channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus in three prairie streams of varying size in three seasons. We compared these gears as to time required per sample, size selectivity, mean catch per unit effort (CPUE) among months, mean CPUE within months, effect of fluctuating stream stage, and sensitivity to population size. According to these comparisons, the 15-hoop-net set used during stable water levels in October had the most desirable characteristics. Using our catch data, we estimated the precision of CPUE and size structure by varying sample sizes for the 15-hoop-net set. We recommend that 11–15 repetitions of the 15-hoop-net set be used for most management activities. This standardized basic unit of effort will increase the precision of estimates and allow better comparisons among samples as well as increased confidence in management decisions.

Relationship Between Auditory Context and Visual Distance Perception: Effect of Musical Expertise in the Ability to Translate Reverberation Cues Into Room-Size Perception.

PubMed

Etchemendy, Pablo E; Spiousas, Ignacio; Vergara, Ramiro

2018-01-01

In a recently published work by our group [ Scientific Reports, 7, 7189 (2017)], we performed experiments of visual distance perception in two dark rooms with extremely different reverberation times: one anechoic ( T ∼ 0.12 s) and the other reverberant ( T ∼ 4 s). The perceived distance of the targets was systematically greater in the reverberant room when contrasted to the anechoic chamber. Participants also provided auditorily perceived room-size ratings which were greater for the reverberant room. Our hypothesis was that distance estimates are affected by room size, resulting in farther responses for the room perceived larger. Of much importance to the task was the subjects' ability to infer room size from reverberation. In this article, we report a postanalysis showing that participants having musical expertise were better able to extract and translate reverberation cues into room-size information than nonmusicians. However, the degree to which musical expertise affects visual distance estimates remains unclear.

Effect of particle size on the glass transition.

PubMed

Larsen, Ryan J; Zukoski, Charles F

2011-05-01

The glass transition temperature of a broad class of molecules is shown to depend on molecular size. This dependency results from the size dependence of the pair potential. A generalized equation of state is used to estimate how the volume fraction at the glass transition depends on the size of the molecule, for rigid molecule glass-formers. The model shows that at a given pressure and temperature there is a size-induced glass transition: For molecules larger than a critical size, the volume fraction required to support the effective pressure due to particle attractions is above that which characterizes the glassy state. This observation establishes the boundary between nanoparticles, which exist in liquid form only as dispersions in low molecular weight solvents and large molecules which form liquids that have viscosities below those characterized by the glassy state.

Use of allele scores as instrumental variables for Mendelian randomization

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G

2013-01-01

Background An allele score is a single variable summarizing multiple genetic variants associated with a risk factor. It is calculated as the total number of risk factor-increasing alleles for an individual (unweighted score), or the sum of weights for each allele corresponding to estimated genetic effect sizes (weighted score). An allele score can be used in a Mendelian randomization analysis to estimate the causal effect of the risk factor on an outcome. Methods Data were simulated to investigate the use of allele scores in Mendelian randomization where conventional instrumental variable techniques using multiple genetic variants demonstrate ‘weak instrument’ bias. The robustness of estimates using the allele score to misspecification (for example non-linearity, effect modification) and to violations of the instrumental variable assumptions was assessed. Results Causal estimates using a correctly specified allele score were unbiased with appropriate coverage levels. The estimates were generally robust to misspecification of the allele score, but not to instrumental variable violations, even if the majority of variants in the allele score were valid instruments. Using a weighted rather than an unweighted allele score increased power, but the increase was small when genetic variants had similar effect sizes. Naive use of the data under analysis to choose which variants to include in an allele score, or for deriving weights, resulted in substantial biases. Conclusions Allele scores enable valid causal estimates with large numbers of genetic variants. The stringency of criteria for genetic variants in Mendelian randomization should be maintained for all variants in an allele score. PMID:24062299

On the anomalies in single-jet hover suckdown data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhn, Richard E.; Bellavia, David C.; Wardwell, Douglas A.; Corsiglia, Victor R.

1991-01-01

The data from nine different investigations of the suckdown induced in ground effect by a single jet issuing from plates of various sizes and shapes have been examined and compared. The results show that the generally accepted method for estimating suckdown significantly underestimated the suckdown for most of the configurations. The study identified several factors that could contribute to the differences. These include ground board size, plate edge effects, jet flow quality, jet impingement angle, the size of the chamber in which the tests were run, and obstructions in the region above the model. Most of these factors have not been investigated and in many cases items such as the size of the test chamber, jet flow quality, ground board size, etc., have not even been shown in the documents reporting the investigation. A program to investigate the effects of these factors is recommended.

Quantitative CT: technique dependence of volume estimation on pulmonary nodules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Baiyu; Barnhart, Huiman; Richard, Samuel; Colsher, James; Amurao, Maxwell; Samei, Ehsan

2012-03-01

Current estimation of lung nodule size typically relies on uni- or bi-dimensional techniques. While new three-dimensional volume estimation techniques using MDCT have improved size estimation of nodules with irregular shapes, the effect of acquisition and reconstruction parameters on accuracy (bias) and precision (variance) of the new techniques has not been fully investigated. To characterize the volume estimation performance dependence on these parameters, an anthropomorphic chest phantom containing synthetic nodules was scanned and reconstructed with protocols across various acquisition and reconstruction parameters. Nodule volumes were estimated by a clinical lung analysis software package, LungVCAR. Precision and accuracy of the volume assessment were calculated across the nodules and compared between protocols via a generalized estimating equation analysis. Results showed that the precision and accuracy of nodule volume quantifications were dependent on slice thickness, with different dependences for different nodule characteristics. Other parameters including kVp, pitch, and reconstruction kernel had lower impact. Determining these technique dependences enables better volume quantification via protocol optimization and highlights the importance of consistent imaging parameters in sequential examinations.

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

PubMed Central

Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

2006-01-01

Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

Ignition and combustion characteristics of metallized propellants, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, D. C.; Turns, S. R.

1994-01-01

Experimental and analytical investigations focusing on aluminum/hydrocarbon gel droplet secondary atomization and its effects on gel-fueled rocket engine performance are being conducted. A single laser sheet sizing/velocimetry diagnostic technique, which should eliminate sizing bias in the data collection process, has been designed and constructed to overcome limitations of the two-color forward-scatter technique used in previous work. Calibration of this system is in progress and the data acquisition/validation code is being written. Narrow-band measurements of radiant emission, discussed in previous reports, will be used to determine if aluminum ignition has occurred in a gel droplet. A one-dimensional model of a gel-fueled rocket combustion chamber, described in earlier reports, has been exercised in conjunction with a two-dimensional, two-phase nozzle code to predict the performance of an aluminum/hydrocarbon fueled engine. Estimated secondary atomization effects on propellant burnout distance, condensed particle radiation losses to the chamber walls, and nozzle two phase flow losses are also investigated. Calculations indicate that only modest secondary atomization is required to significantly reduce propellant burnout distances, aluminum oxide residual size, and radiation heat losses. Radiation losses equal to approximately 2-13 percent of the energy released during combustion were estimated, depending on secondary atomization intensity. A two-dimensional, two-phase nozzle code was employed to estimate radiation and nozzle two phase flow effects on overall engine performance. Radiation losses yielded a one percent decrease in engine Isp. Results also indicate that secondary atomization may have less effect on two-phase losses than it does on propellant burnout distance and no effect if oxide particle coagulation and shear induced droplet breakup govern oxide particle size. Engine Isp was found to decrease from 337.4 to 293.7 seconds as gel aluminum mass loading was varied from 0-70 wt percent. Engine Isp efficiencies, accounting for radiation and two phase flow effects, on the order of 0.946 were calculated for a 60 wt percent gel, assuming a fragmentation ratio of five.

An internal pilot study for a randomized trial aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of iron interventions in children with non-anemic iron deficiency: the OptEC trial.

PubMed

Abdullah, Kawsari; Thorpe, Kevin E; Mamak, Eva; Maguire, Jonathon L; Birken, Catherine S; Fehlings, Darcy; Hanley, Anthony J; Macarthur, Colin; Zlotkin, Stanley H; Parkin, Patricia C

2015-07-14

The OptEC trial aims to evaluate the effectiveness of oral iron in young children with non-anemic iron deficiency (NAID). The initial sample size calculated for the OptEC trial ranged from 112-198 subjects. Given the uncertainty regarding the parameters used to calculate the sample, an internal pilot study was conducted. The objectives of this internal pilot study were to obtain reliable estimate of parameters (standard deviation and design factor) to recalculate the sample size and to assess the adherence rate and reasons for non-adherence in children enrolled in the pilot study. The first 30 subjects enrolled into the OptEC trial constituted the internal pilot study. The primary outcome of the OptEC trial is the Early Learning Composite (ELC). For estimation of the SD of the ELC, descriptive statistics of the 4 month follow-up ELC scores were assessed within each intervention group. The observed SD within each group was then pooled to obtain an estimated SD (S2) of the ELC. Correlation (ρ) between the ELC measured at baseline and follow-up was assessed. Recalculation of the sample size was performed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) method which uses the design factor (1- ρ(2)). Adherence rate was calculated using a parent reported rate of missed doses of the study intervention. The new estimate of the SD of the ELC was found to be 17.40 (S2). The design factor was (1- ρ2) = 0.21. Using a significance level of 5%, power of 80%, S2 = 17.40 and effect estimate (Δ) ranging from 6-8 points, the new sample size based on ANCOVA method ranged from 32-56 subjects (16-28 per group). Adherence ranged between 14% and 100% with 44% of the children having an adherence rate ≥ 86%. Information generated from our internal pilot study was used to update the design of the full and definitive trial, including recalculation of sample size, determination of the adequacy of adherence, and application of strategies to improve adherence. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01481766 (date of registration: November 22, 2011).

Random Responding as a Threat to the Validity of Effect Size Estimates in Correlational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crede, Marcus

2010-01-01

Random responding to psychological inventories is a long-standing concern among clinical practitioners and researchers interested in interpreting idiographic data, but it is typically viewed as having only a minor impact on the statistical inferences drawn from nomothetic data. This article explores the impact of random responding on the size and…

Conditional Optimal Design in Three- and Four-Level Experiments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Larry V.; Borenstein, Michael

2014-01-01

The precision of estimates of treatment effects in multilevel experiments depends on the sample sizes chosen at each level. It is often desirable to choose sample sizes at each level to obtain the smallest variance for a fixed total cost, that is, to obtain optimal sample allocation. This article extends previous results on optimal allocation to…

Effect size and statistical power in the rodent fear conditioning literature - A systematic review.

PubMed

Carneiro, Clarissa F D; Moulin, Thiago C; Macleod, Malcolm R; Amaral, Olavo B

2018-01-01

Proposals to increase research reproducibility frequently call for focusing on effect sizes instead of p values, as well as for increasing the statistical power of experiments. However, it is unclear to what extent these two concepts are indeed taken into account in basic biomedical science. To study this in a real-case scenario, we performed a systematic review of effect sizes and statistical power in studies on learning of rodent fear conditioning, a widely used behavioral task to evaluate memory. Our search criteria yielded 410 experiments comparing control and treated groups in 122 articles. Interventions had a mean effect size of 29.5%, and amnesia caused by memory-impairing interventions was nearly always partial. Mean statistical power to detect the average effect size observed in well-powered experiments with significant differences (37.2%) was 65%, and was lower among studies with non-significant results. Only one article reported a sample size calculation, and our estimated sample size to achieve 80% power considering typical effect sizes and variances (15 animals per group) was reached in only 12.2% of experiments. Actual effect sizes correlated with effect size inferences made by readers on the basis of textual descriptions of results only when findings were non-significant, and neither effect size nor power correlated with study quality indicators, number of citations or impact factor of the publishing journal. In summary, effect sizes and statistical power have a wide distribution in the rodent fear conditioning literature, but do not seem to have a large influence on how results are described or cited. Failure to take these concepts into consideration might limit attempts to improve reproducibility in this field of science.

Effect size and statistical power in the rodent fear conditioning literature – A systematic review

PubMed Central

Macleod, Malcolm R.

2018-01-01

Proposals to increase research reproducibility frequently call for focusing on effect sizes instead of p values, as well as for increasing the statistical power of experiments. However, it is unclear to what extent these two concepts are indeed taken into account in basic biomedical science. To study this in a real-case scenario, we performed a systematic review of effect sizes and statistical power in studies on learning of rodent fear conditioning, a widely used behavioral task to evaluate memory. Our search criteria yielded 410 experiments comparing control and treated groups in 122 articles. Interventions had a mean effect size of 29.5%, and amnesia caused by memory-impairing interventions was nearly always partial. Mean statistical power to detect the average effect size observed in well-powered experiments with significant differences (37.2%) was 65%, and was lower among studies with non-significant results. Only one article reported a sample size calculation, and our estimated sample size to achieve 80% power considering typical effect sizes and variances (15 animals per group) was reached in only 12.2% of experiments. Actual effect sizes correlated with effect size inferences made by readers on the basis of textual descriptions of results only when findings were non-significant, and neither effect size nor power correlated with study quality indicators, number of citations or impact factor of the publishing journal. In summary, effect sizes and statistical power have a wide distribution in the rodent fear conditioning literature, but do not seem to have a large influence on how results are described or cited. Failure to take these concepts into consideration might limit attempts to improve reproducibility in this field of science. PMID:29698451

An audit strategy for time-to-event outcomes measured with error: application to five randomized controlled trials in oncology.

PubMed

Dodd, Lori E; Korn, Edward L; Freidlin, Boris; Gu, Wenjuan; Abrams, Jeffrey S; Bushnell, William D; Canetta, Renzo; Doroshow, James H; Gray, Robert J; Sridhara, Rajeshwari

2013-10-01

Measurement error in time-to-event end points complicates interpretation of treatment effects in clinical trials. Non-differential measurement error is unlikely to produce large bias [1]. When error depends on treatment arm, bias is of greater concern. Blinded-independent central review (BICR) of all images from a trial is commonly undertaken to mitigate differential measurement-error bias that may be present in hazard ratios (HRs) based on local evaluations. Similar BICR and local evaluation HRs may provide reassurance about the treatment effect, but BICR adds considerable time and expense to trials. We describe a BICR audit strategy [2] and apply it to five randomized controlled trials to evaluate its use and to provide practical guidelines. The strategy requires BICR on a subset of study subjects, rather than a complete-case BICR, and makes use of an auxiliary-variable estimator. When the effect size is relatively large, the method provides a substantial reduction in the size of the BICRs. In a trial with 722 participants and a HR of 0.48, an average audit of 28% of the data was needed and always confirmed the treatment effect as assessed by local evaluations. More moderate effect sizes and/or smaller trial sizes required larger proportions of audited images, ranging from 57% to 100% for HRs ranging from 0.55 to 0.77 and sample sizes between 209 and 737. The method is developed for a simple random sample of study subjects. In studies with low event rates, more efficient estimation may result from sampling individuals with events at a higher rate. The proposed strategy can greatly decrease the costs and time associated with BICR, by reducing the number of images undergoing review. The savings will depend on the underlying treatment effect and trial size, with larger treatment effects and larger trials requiring smaller proportions of audited data.

Testing metapopulation concepts: effects of patch characteristics and neighborhood occupancy on the dynamics of an endangered lagomorph

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Hughes, Phillip T.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.

2014-01-01

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model selection to identify important drivers of population turnover and estimate the effective neighborhood size for this system. Several key relationships related to patch size and isolation that are often assumed in metapopulation models were supported: patch size was negatively related to the probability of extinction and positively related to colonization, and estimated occupancy of neighboring patches was positively related to colonization and negatively related to extinction probabilities. This latter relationship suggested the existence of rescue effects. In our study system, we inferred that coastal patches experienced higher probabilities of extinction and colonization than interior patches. Interior patches exhibited higher occupancy probabilities and may serve as refugia, permitting colonization of coastal patches following disturbances such as hurricanes and storm surges. Our modeling approach should be useful for incorporating neighbor occupancy into future metapopulation analyses and in dealing with other historic occupancy surveys that may not include the recommended levels of sampling replication.

Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan

2016-10-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees ofmore » freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.« less

Mapped Plot Patch Size Estimates

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen

2005-01-01

This paper demonstrates that the mapped plot design is relatively easy to analyze and describes existing formulas for mean and variance estimators. New methods are developed for using mapped plots to estimate average patch size of condition classes. The patch size estimators require assumptions about the shape of the condition class, limiting their utility. They may...

Temporal dynamics of linkage disequilibrium in two populations of bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Miller, Joshua M; Poissant, Jocelyn; Malenfant, René M; Hogg, John T; Coltman, David W

2015-01-01

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is the nonrandom association of alleles at two markers. Patterns of LD have biological implications as well as practical ones when designing association studies or conservation programs aimed at identifying the genetic basis of fitness differences within and among populations. However, the temporal dynamics of LD in wild populations has received little empirical attention. In this study, we examined the overall extent of LD, the effect of sample size on the accuracy and precision of LD estimates, and the temporal dynamics of LD in two populations of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) with different demographic histories. Using over 200 microsatellite loci, we assessed two metrics of multi-allelic LD, D′, and χ′2. We found that both populations exhibited high levels of LD, although the extent was much shorter in a native population than one that was founded via translocation, experienced a prolonged bottleneck post founding, followed by recent admixture. In addition, we observed significant variation in LD in relation to the sample size used, with small sample sizes leading to depressed estimates of the extent of LD but inflated estimates of background levels of LD. In contrast, there was not much variation in LD among yearly cross-sections within either population once sample size was accounted for. Lack of pronounced interannual variability suggests that researchers may not have to worry about interannual variation when estimating LD in a population and can instead focus on obtaining the largest sample size possible. PMID:26380673

Estimation of genetic diversity in Gute sheep: pedigree and microsatellite analyses of an ancient Swedish breed.

PubMed

Rochus, Christina M; Johansson, Anna M

2017-01-01

Breeds with small population size are in danger of an increased inbreeding rate and loss of genetic diversity, which puts them at risk for extinction. In Sweden there are a number of local breeds, native breeds which have adapted to specific areas in Sweden, for which efforts are being made to keep them pure and healthy over time. One example of such a breed is the Swedish Gute sheep. The objective of this study was to estimate inbreeding and genetic diversity of Swedish Gute sheep. Three datasets were analysed: pedigree information of the whole population, pedigree information for 100 animals of the population, and microsatellite genotypes for 94 of the 100 animals. The average inbreeding coefficient for lambs born during a six year time period (2007-2012) did not increase during that time period. The inbreeding calculated from the entire pedigree (0.038) and for a sample of the population (0.018) was very low. Sheep were more heterozygous at the microsatellite markers than expected (average multilocus heterozygosity and Ritland inbreeding estimates 1.01845 and -0.03931) and five of seven microsatellite markers were not in Hardy Weinberg equilibrium due to heterozygosity excess. The total effective population size estimated from the pedigree information was 155.4 and the average harmonic mean effective population size estimated from microsatellites was 88.3. Pedigree and microsatellite genotype estimations of inbreeding were consistent with a breeding program with the purpose of reducing inbreeding. Our results showed that current breeding programs of the Swedish Gute sheep are consistent with efforts of keeping this breed viable and these breeding programs are an example for other small local breeds in conserving breeds for the future.

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Expected effects of reducing Oestrus ovis L. mature larval weight on adult populations.

PubMed

Cepeda-Palacios, R; Frugère, S; Dorchies, P

2000-06-27

In order to estimate the effects of eventual reductions in larval weight (LW) of Oestrus ovis L. as a measure of control, the correlation between mature LW and adult fly length (AL) in laboratory specimens (n=150) was calculated. The regression equation AL=5.62+10.65LW (r(2)=0.76) was obtained. This equation was then applied to estimate the mature LW of wild larvipositing females (n=51) to predict the minimum mature LW at which fly viability would be compromised. The critical weight, 0.28 g (standard error limits 0. 235, 0.323), was obtained from a small fly measuring 8.6mm in length. Data from 383 mature third instars were used to estimate, by statistical analysis, the expected effects of decreasing the mature LW on subsequent fly population size. A considerable mean reduction (38%) in adult populations might be achieved by a 40% reduction of mature LW, but this eventual reduction may be temporary due to the high reproductive rate in this species. Sex differences in mature LW and fly size are also reported.

Genetic variation assessed with microsatellites in mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster ( Crassostrea gigas) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xubo; Li, Qi; Yu, Hong; Kong, Lingfeng

2016-12-01

Four successive mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, selected for faster growth in breeding programs in China were examined at ten polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess the level of allelic diversity and estimate the effective population size. These data were compared with those of their base population. The results showed that the genetic variation of the four generations were maintained at high levels with an average allelic richness of 18.8-20.6, and a mean expected heterozygosity of 0.902-0.921. They were not reduced compared with those of their base population. Estimated effective population sizes based on temporal variances in microsatellite frequencies were smaller to that of sex ratio-corrected broodstock count estimates. Using a relatively large number of broodstock and keeping an equal sex ratio in the broodstock each generation may have contributed to retaining the original genetic diversity and maintaining relatively large effective population size. The results obtained in this study showed that the genetic variation was not affected greatly by mass selection progress and high genetic variation still existed in the mass selection lines, suggesting that there is still potential for increasing the gains in future generations of C. gigas. The present study provided important information for future genetic improvement by selective breeding, and for the design of suitable management guidelines for genetic breeding of C. gigas.

Improving alpine-region spectral unmixing with optimal-fit snow endmembers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Painter, Thomas H.; Roberts, Dar A.; Green, Robert O.; Dozier, Jeff

1995-01-01

Surface albedo and snow-covered-area (SCA) are crucial inputs to the hydrologic and climatologic modeling of alpine and seasonally snow-covered areas. Because the spectral albedo and thermal regime of pure snow depend on grain size, areal distribution of snow grain size is required. Remote sensing has been shown to be an effective (and necessary) means of deriving maps of grain size distribution and snow-covered-area. Developed here is a technique whereby maps of grain size distribution improve estimates of SCA from spectral mixture analysis with AVIRIS data.

Determining Sample Size for Accurate Estimation of the Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Olejnik, Stephen

2000-01-01

Discusses determining sample size for estimation of the squared multiple correlation coefficient and presents regression equations that permit determination of the sample size for estimating this parameter for up to 20 predictor variables. (SLD)

Estimation of population trajectories from count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1997-01-01

Monitoring of changes in animal population size is rarely possible through complete censuses; frequently, the only feasible means of monitoring changes in population size is to use counts of animals obtained by skilled observers as indices to abundance. Analysis of changes in population size can be severely biased if factors related to the acquisition of data are not adequately controlled for. In particular we identify two types of observer effects: these correspond to baseline differences in observer competence, and to changes through time in the ability of individual observers. We present a family of models for count data in which the first of these observer effects is treated as a nuisance parameter. Conditioning on totals of negative binomial counts yields a Dirichlet compound multinomial vector for each observer. Quasi-likelihood is used to estimate parameters related to population trajectory and other parameters of interest; model selection is carried out on the basis of Akaike's information criterion. An example is presented using data on Wood thrush from the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

Portion Size: Latest Developments and Interventions.

PubMed

Steenhuis, Ingrid; Poelman, Maartje

2017-03-01

The aim of this review is to provide an overview of (1) underlying mechanisms of the effect of portion size on energy intake, (2) external factors explaining the portion size effect and (3) interventions and measurements aimed at food portion size. Previous studies have shown that portion sizes have increased in recent decades. Many experimental studies have been conducted to unravel the mechanisms underlying the portion-size effect on food intake (e.g. the appropriateness mechanism, the 'unit bias' mechanism, the 'previous experience/expectation' mechanism, the 'visual cue' mechanism and the 'bite size' mechanism). In addition, external factors have been found to drive food portion selection and consumption (e.g. value for money, mindless eating, levels of awareness, estimation bias. Research on several interventions (ranging from 'providing information' to 'eliminating choice') have been conducted, but remain scarce, especially intervention studies in which portion size is a key focus in weight loss. Moreover, only three new instruments with respect to portion control behavior have been developed. There is considerable evidence for the portion-size effect on energy intake. However, the work on interventions targeting portion size and measurements for portion control behavior are limited. Moreover, from the literature it is not yet clear what type of interventions work best, for whom and in what context.

Automated nodule location and size estimation using a multi-scale Laplacian of Gaussian filtering approach.

PubMed

Jirapatnakul, Artit C; Fotin, Sergei V; Reeves, Anthony P; Biancardi, Alberto M; Yankelevitz, David F; Henschke, Claudia I

2009-01-01

Estimation of nodule location and size is an important pre-processing step in some nodule segmentation algorithms to determine the size and location of the region of interest. Ideally, such estimation methods will consistently find the same nodule location regardless of where the the seed point (provided either manually or by a nodule detection algorithm) is placed relative to the "true" center of the nodule, and the size should be a reasonable estimate of the true nodule size. We developed a method that estimates nodule location and size using multi-scale Laplacian of Gaussian (LoG) filtering. Nodule candidates near a given seed point are found by searching for blob-like regions with high filter response. The candidates are then pruned according to filter response and location, and the remaining candidates are sorted by size and the largest candidate selected. This method was compared to a previously published template-based method. The methods were evaluated on the basis of stability of the estimated nodule location to changes in the initial seed point and how well the size estimates agreed with volumes determined by a semi-automated nodule segmentation method. The LoG method exhibited better stability to changes in the seed point, with 93% of nodules having the same estimated location even when the seed point was altered, compared to only 52% of nodules for the template-based method. Both methods also showed good agreement with sizes determined by a nodule segmentation method, with an average relative size difference of 5% and -5% for the LoG and template-based methods respectively.

Energy Content Estimation by Collegians for Portion Standardized Foods Frequently Consumed in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Jin; Lee, Hee Jung; Lee, Hyun Jung; Lee, Sun Ha; Yun, Jee-Young; Choi, Mi-Kyeong

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to estimate Korean collegians' knowledge of energy content in the standard portion size of foods frequently consumed in Korea and to investigate the differences in knowledge between gender groups. A total of 600 collegians participated in this study. Participants' knowledge was assessed based on their estimation on the energy content of 30 selected food items with their actual-size photo images. Standard portion size of food was based on 2010 Korean Dietary Reference Intakes, and the percentage of participants who accurately estimated (that is, within 20% of the true value) the energy content of the standard portion size was calculated for each food item. The food for which the most participants provided the accurate estimation was ramyun (instant noodles) (67.7%), followed by cooked rice (57.8%). The proportion of students who overestimated the energy content was highest for vegetables (68.8%) and beverages (68.1%). The proportion of students who underestimated the energy content was highest for grains and starches (42.0%) and fruits (37.1%). Female students were more likely to check energy content of foods that they consumed than male students. From these results, it was concluded that the knowledge on food energy content was poor among collegians, with some gender difference. Therefore, in the future, nutrition education programs should give greater attention to improving knowledge on calorie content and to helping them apply this knowledge in order to develop effective dietary plans. PMID:24527417

Energy content estimation by collegians for portion standardized foods frequently consumed in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jin; Lee, Hee Jung; Lee, Hyun Jung; Lee, Sun Ha; Yun, Jee-Young; Choi, Mi-Kyeong; Kim, Mi-Hyun

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to estimate Korean collegians' knowledge of energy content in the standard portion size of foods frequently consumed in Korea and to investigate the differences in knowledge between gender groups. A total of 600 collegians participated in this study. Participants' knowledge was assessed based on their estimation on the energy content of 30 selected food items with their actual-size photo images. Standard portion size of food was based on 2010 Korean Dietary Reference Intakes, and the percentage of participants who accurately estimated (that is, within 20% of the true value) the energy content of the standard portion size was calculated for each food item. The food for which the most participants provided the accurate estimation was ramyun (instant noodles) (67.7%), followed by cooked rice (57.8%). The proportion of students who overestimated the energy content was highest for vegetables (68.8%) and beverages (68.1%). The proportion of students who underestimated the energy content was highest for grains and starches (42.0%) and fruits (37.1%). Female students were more likely to check energy content of foods that they consumed than male students. From these results, it was concluded that the knowledge on food energy content was poor among collegians, with some gender difference. Therefore, in the future, nutrition education programs should give greater attention to improving knowledge on calorie content and to helping them apply this knowledge in order to develop effective dietary plans.

Aerosol properties from spectral extinction and backscatter estimated by an inverse Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Ligon, D A; Gillespie, J B; Pellegrino, P

2000-08-20

The feasibility of using a generalized stochastic inversion methodology to estimate aerosol size distributions accurately by use of spectral extinction, backscatter data, or both is examined. The stochastic method used, inverse Monte Carlo (IMC), is verified with both simulated and experimental data from aerosols composed of spherical dielectrics with a known refractive index. Various levels of noise are superimposed on the data such that the effect of noise on the stability and results of inversion can be determined. Computational results show that the application of the IMC technique to inversion of spectral extinction or backscatter data or both can produce good estimates of aerosol size distributions. Specifically, for inversions for which both spectral extinction and backscatter data are used, the IMC technique was extremely accurate in determining particle size distributions well outside the wavelength range. Also, the IMC inversion results proved to be stable and accurate even when the data had significant noise, with a signal-to-noise ratio of 3.

Efficacy of attention bias modification using threat and appetitive stimuli: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Beard, Courtney; Sawyer, Alice T; Hofmann, Stefan G

2012-12-01

Attention bias modification (ABM) protocols aim to modify attentional biases underlying many forms of pathology. Our objective was to conduct an effect size analysis of ABM across a wide range of samples and psychological problems. We conducted a literature search using PubMed, PsycInfo, and author searches to identify randomized studies that examined the effects of ABM on attention and subjective experiences. We identified 37 studies (41 experiments) totaling 2,135 participants who were randomized to training toward neutral, positive, threat, or appetitive stimuli or to a control condition. The effect size estimate for changes in attentional bias was large for the neutral versus threat comparisons (g=1.06), neutral versus appetitive (g=1.41), and neutral versus control comparisons (g=0.80), and small for positive versus control (g=0.24). The effects of ABM on attention bias were moderated by stimulus type (words vs. pictures) and sample characteristics (healthy vs. high symptomatology). Effect sizes of ABM on subjective experiences ranged from 0.03 to 0.60 for postchallenge outcomes, -0.31 to 0.51 for posttreatment, and were moderated by number of training sessions, stimulus type, and stimulus orientation (top/bottom vs. left/right). Fail-safe N calculations suggested that the effect size estimates were robust for the training effects on attentional biases, but not for the effect on subjective experiences. ABM studies using threat stimuli produced significant effects on attention bias across comparison conditions, whereas appetitive stimuli produced changes in attention only when comparing appetitive versus neutral conditions. ABM has a moderate and robust effect on attention bias when using threat stimuli. Further studies are needed to determine whether these effects are also robust when using appetitive stimuli and for affecting subjective experiences. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Using high-resolution satellite imagery to assess populations of animals in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaRue, Michelle Ann

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly-changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically-important krill and fish. It is imperative that populations of indicator species, such as penguins and seals, be monitored at regional- to global scales to decouple the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes for appropriate ecosystem-based management of the Southern Ocean. Remotely monitoring populations through high-resolution satellite imagery is currently the only feasible way to gain information about population trends of penguins and seals in Antarctica. In my first chapter, I review the literature where high-resolution satellite imagery has been used to assess populations of animals in polar regions. Building on this literature, my second chapter focuses on estimating changes in abundance in the Weddell seal population in Erebus Bay. I found a strong correlation between ground and satellite counts, and this finding provides an alternate method for assessing populations of Weddell seals in areas where less is known about population status. My third chapter explores how size of the guano stain of Adelie penguins can be used to predict population size. Using high-resolution imagery and ground counts, I built a model to estimate the breeding population of Adelie penguins using a supervised classification to estimate guano size. These results suggest that the size of guano stain is an accurate predictor of population size, and can be applied to estimate remote Adelie penguin colonies. In my fourth chapter, I use air photos, satellite imagery, climate and mark-resight data to determine that climate change has positively impacted the population of Adelie penguins at Beaufort Island through a habitat release that ultimately affected the dynamics within the southern Ross Sea metapopulation. Finally, for my fifth chapter I combined the literature with observations from aerial surveys and satellite imagery to determine that emperor penguins are not philopatric. These results have implications for interpreting long-term modeling studies and I suggest that future research should account for metapopulation dynamics within emperor penguin populations. Combined, my dissertation provides resources and new insights for effective management of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Impact of QTL minor allele frequency on genomic evaluation using real genotype data and simulated phenotypes in Japanese Black cattle.

PubMed

Uemoto, Yoshinobu; Sasaki, Shinji; Kojima, Takatoshi; Sugimoto, Yoshikazu; Watanabe, Toshio

2015-11-19

Genetic variance that is not captured by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is due to imperfect linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and quantitative trait loci (QTLs), and the extent of LD between SNPs and QTLs depends on different minor allele frequencies (MAF) between them. To evaluate the impact of MAF of QTLs on genomic evaluation, we performed a simulation study using real cattle genotype data. In total, 1368 Japanese Black cattle and 592,034 SNPs (Illumina BovineHD BeadChip) were used. We simulated phenotypes using real genotypes under different scenarios, varying the MAF categories, QTL heritability, number of QTLs, and distribution of QTL effect. After generating true breeding values and phenotypes, QTL heritability was estimated and the prediction accuracy of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) was assessed under different SNP densities, prediction models, and population size by a reference-test validation design. The extent of LD between SNPs and QTLs in this population was higher in the QTLs with high MAF than in those with low MAF. The effect of MAF of QTLs depended on the genetic architecture, evaluation strategy, and population size in genomic evaluation. In genetic architecture, genomic evaluation was affected by the MAF of QTLs combined with the QTL heritability and the distribution of QTL effect. The number of QTL was not affected on genomic evaluation if the number of QTL was more than 50. In the evaluation strategy, we showed that different SNP densities and prediction models affect the heritability estimation and genomic prediction and that this depends on the MAF of QTLs. In addition, accurate QTL heritability and GEBV were obtained using denser SNP information and the prediction model accounted for the SNPs with low and high MAFs. In population size, a large sample size is needed to increase the accuracy of GEBV. The MAF of QTL had an impact on heritability estimation and prediction accuracy. Most genetic variance can be captured using denser SNPs and the prediction model accounted for MAF, but a large sample size is needed to increase the accuracy of GEBV under all QTL MAF categories.

Comparing methods to estimate Reineke’s maximum size-density relationship species boundary line slope

Treesearch

Curtis L. VanderSchaaf; Harold E. Burkhart

2010-01-01

Maximum size-density relationships (MSDR) provide natural resource managers useful information about the relationship between tree density and average tree size. Obtaining a valid estimate of how maximum tree density changes as average tree size changes is necessary to accurately describe these relationships. This paper examines three methods to estimate the slope of...

Food photography II: use of food photographs for estimating portion size and the nutrient content of meals.

PubMed

Nelson, M; Atkinson, M; Darbyshire, S

1996-07-01

The aim of the present study was to determine the errors in the conceptualization of portion size using photographs. Male and female volunteers aged 18-90 years (n 136) from a wide variety of social and occupational backgrounds completed 602 assessments of portion size in relation to food photographs. Subjects served themselves between four and six foods at one meal (breakfast, lunch or dinner). Portion sizes were weighed by the investigators at the time of serving, and any waste was weighed at the end of the meal. Within 5 min of the end of the meal, subjects were shown photographs depicting each of the foods just consumed. For each food there were eight photographs showing portion sizes in equal increments from the 5th to the 95th centile of the distribution of portion weights observed in The Dietary and Nutritional Survey of British Adults (Gregory et al. 1990). Subjects were asked to indicate on a visual analogue scale the size of the portion consumed in relation to the eight photographs. The nutrient contents of meals were estimated from food composition tables. There were large variations in the estimation of portion sizes from photographs. Butter and margarine portion sizes tended to be substantially overestimated. In general, small portion sizes tended to be overestimated, and large portion sizes underestimated. Older subjects overestimated portion size more often than younger subjects. Excluding butter and margarine, the nutrient content of meals based on estimated portion sizes was on average within +/- 7% of the nutrient content based on the amounts consumed, except for vitamin C (21% overestimate), and for subjects over 65 years (15-20% overestimate for energy and fat). In subjects whose BMI was less than 25 kg/m2, the energy and fat contents of meals calculated from food composition tables and based on estimated portion size (excluding butter and margarine) were 5-10% greater than the nutrient content calculated using actual portion size, but for those with BMI 30 kg/m2 or over, the calculated energy and fat contents were underestimated by 2-5%. The correlation of the nutrient content of meals based on actual or estimated portion sizes ranged from 0-84 to 0-96. For energy and eight nutrients, between 69 and 89% subjects were correctly classified into thirds of the distribution of intake using estimated portion size compared with intakes based on actual portion sizes. When 'average' portion sizes (the average weight of each of the foods which the subjects had served themselves) were used in place of the estimates based on photographs, the number of subjects correctly classified fell to between 60 and 79%. We report for the first time the error associated with conceptualization and the nutrient content of meals when using photographs to estimate food portion size. We conclude that photographs depicting a range of portion sizes are a useful aid to the estimation of portion size. Misclassification of subjects according to their nutrient intake from one meal is reduced when photographs are used to estimate portion size, compared with the use of average portions. Age, sex, BMI and portion size are all potentially important confounders when estimating food consumption or nutrient intake using photographs.

The Effect of Childhood Family Size on Fertility in Adulthood: New Evidence From IV Estimation.

PubMed

Cools, Sara; Kaldager Hart, Rannveig

2017-02-01

Although fertility is positively correlated across generations, the causal effect of children's experience with larger sibships on their own fertility in adulthood is poorly understood. With the sex composition of the two firstborn children as an instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of sibship size on adult fertility using high-quality data from Norwegian administrative registers. Our study sample is all firstborns or second-borns during the 1960s in Norwegian families with at least two children (approximately 110,000 men and 104,000 women). An additional sibling has a positive effect on male fertility, mainly causing them to have three children themselves, but has a negative effect on female fertility at the same margin. Investigation into mediators reveals that mothers of girls shift relatively less time from market to family work when an additional child is born. We speculate that this scarcity in parents' time makes girls aware of the strains of life in large families, leading them to limit their own number of children in adulthood.

MO-E-17A-08: Attenuation-Based Size Adjusted, Scanner-Independent Organ Dose Estimates for Head CT Exams: TG 204 for Head CT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMillan, K; Bostani, M; Cagnon, C

Purpose: AAPM Task Group 204 described size specific dose estimates (SSDE) for body scans. The purpose of this work is to use a similar approach to develop patient-specific, scanner-independent organ dose estimates for head CT exams using an attenuation-based size metric. Methods: For eight patient models from the GSF family of voxelized phantoms, dose to brain and lens of the eye was estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of contiguous axial scans for 64-slice MDCT scanners from four major manufacturers. Organ doses were normalized by scannerspecific 16 cm CTDIvol values and averaged across all scanners to obtain scanner-independent CTDIvol-to-organ-dose conversion coefficientsmore » for each patient model. Head size was measured at the first slice superior to the eyes; patient perimeter and effective diameter (ED) were measured directly from the GSF data. Because the GSF models use organ identification codes instead of Hounsfield units, water equivalent diameter (WED) was estimated indirectly. Using the image data from 42 patients ranging from 2 weeks old to adult, the perimeter, ED and WED size metrics were obtained and correlations between each metric were established. Applying these correlations to the GSF perimeter and ED measurements, WED was calculated for each model. The relationship between the various patient size metrics and CTDIvol-to-organ-dose conversion coefficients was then described. Results: The analysis of patient images demonstrated the correlation between WED and ED across a wide range of patient sizes. When applied to the GSF patient models, an exponential relationship between CTDIvol-to-organ-dose conversion coefficients and the WED size metric was observed with correlation coefficients of 0.93 and 0.77 for the brain and lens of the eye, respectively. Conclusion: Strong correlation exists between CTDIvol normalized brain dose and WED. For the lens of the eye, a lower correlation is observed, primarily due to surface dose variations. Funding Support: Siemens-UCLA Radiology Master Research Agreement; Disclosures - Michael McNitt-Gray: Institutional Research Agreement, Siemens AG; Research Support, Siemens AG; Consultant, Flaherty Sensabaugh Bonasso PLLC; Consultant, Fulbright and Jaworski.« less

Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Worker Population in Tehran, Iran: Application of Direct Capture-Recapture Method.

PubMed

Karami, Manoochehr; Khazaei, Salman; Poorolajal, Jalal; Soltanian, Alireza; Sajadipoor, Mansour

2017-08-01

There is no reliable estimate of the size of female sex workers (FSWs). This study aimed to estimate the size of FSWs in south of Tehran, Iran in 2016 using direct capture-recapture method. In the capture phase, the hangouts of FSWs were mapped as their meeting places. FSWs who agreed to participate in the study tagged with a T-shirt. The recapture phase was implemented at the same places tagging FSWs with a blue bracelet. The total estimated size of FSWs was 690 (95% CI 633, 747). About 89.43% of FSWs experienced sexual intercourse prior to age 20. The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection among FSWs was 4.60%. The estimated population size of FSWs was much more than our expectation. This issue must be the focus of special attention for planning prevention strategies. However, alternative estimates require to estimating the number FSWs, reliably.

Maximum inflation of the type 1 error rate when sample size and allocation rate are adapted in a pre-planned interim look.

PubMed

Graf, Alexandra C; Bauer, Peter

2011-06-30

We calculate the maximum type 1 error rate of the pre-planned conventional fixed sample size test for comparing the means of independent normal distributions (with common known variance) which can be yielded when sample size and allocation rate to the treatment arms can be modified in an interim analysis. Thereby it is assumed that the experimenter fully exploits knowledge of the unblinded interim estimates of the treatment effects in order to maximize the conditional type 1 error rate. The 'worst-case' strategies require knowledge of the unknown common treatment effect under the null hypothesis. Although this is a rather hypothetical scenario it may be approached in practice when using a standard control treatment for which precise estimates are available from historical data. The maximum inflation of the type 1 error rate is substantially larger than derived by Proschan and Hunsberger (Biometrics 1995; 51:1315-1324) for design modifications applying balanced samples before and after the interim analysis. Corresponding upper limits for the maximum type 1 error rate are calculated for a number of situations arising from practical considerations (e.g. restricting the maximum sample size, not allowing sample size to decrease, allowing only increase in the sample size in the experimental treatment). The application is discussed for a motivating example. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

VERTICAL BEAM SIZE CONTROL IN TLS AND TPS.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KUO, C.C.; CHEN, J.R.; CHOU, P.J.

2006-06-26

Vertical beam size control is an important issue in the light source operations. The horizontal-vertical betatron coupling and vertical dispersion were measured and corrected to small values in the TLS 1.5 GeV storage ring. Estimated beam sizes are compared with the measured values. By employing an effective transverse damping system, the vertical beam blow-up due to transverse coherent instabilities, such as the fast-ion beam instability, was suppressed. As a result, the light source is very stable. In NSRRC we are designing an ultra low emittance 3-GeV storage ring and its designed vertical beam size could be as small as amore » few microns. The ground and mechanic vibration effects, and coherent instabilities could spoil the expected photon brightness due to blow-up of the vertical beam size if not well taken care of. The contributions of these effects to vertical beam size increase will be evaluated and the counter measures to minimize them will be proposed and reported in this paper.« less

Grain-size-independent plastic flow at ultrahigh pressures and strain rates.

PubMed

Park, H-S; Rudd, R E; Cavallo, R M; Barton, N R; Arsenlis, A; Belof, J L; Blobaum, K J M; El-dasher, B S; Florando, J N; Huntington, C M; Maddox, B R; May, M J; Plechaty, C; Prisbrey, S T; Remington, B A; Wallace, R J; Wehrenberg, C E; Wilson, M J; Comley, A J; Giraldez, E; Nikroo, A; Farrell, M; Randall, G; Gray, G T

2015-02-13

A basic tenet of material science is that the flow stress of a metal increases as its grain size decreases, an effect described by the Hall-Petch relation. This relation is used extensively in material design to optimize the hardness, durability, survivability, and ductility of structural metals. This Letter reports experimental results in a new regime of high pressures and strain rates that challenge this basic tenet of mechanical metallurgy. We report measurements of the plastic flow of the model body-centered-cubic metal tantalum made under conditions of high pressure (>100  GPa) and strain rate (∼10(7)  s(-1)) achieved by using the Omega laser. Under these unique plastic deformation ("flow") conditions, the effect of grain size is found to be negligible for grain sizes >0.25  μm sizes. A multiscale model of the plastic flow suggests that pressure and strain rate hardening dominate over the grain-size effects. Theoretical estimates, based on grain compatibility and geometrically necessary dislocations, corroborate this conclusion.

Neither fixed nor random: weighted least squares meta-analysis.

PubMed

Stanley, T D; Doucouliagos, Hristos

2015-06-15

This study challenges two core conventional meta-analysis methods: fixed effect and random effects. We show how and explain why an unrestricted weighted least squares estimator is superior to conventional random-effects meta-analysis when there is publication (or small-sample) bias and better than a fixed-effect weighted average if there is heterogeneity. Statistical theory and simulations of effect sizes, log odds ratios and regression coefficients demonstrate that this unrestricted weighted least squares estimator provides satisfactory estimates and confidence intervals that are comparable to random effects when there is no publication (or small-sample) bias and identical to fixed-effect meta-analysis when there is no heterogeneity. When there is publication selection bias, the unrestricted weighted least squares approach dominates random effects; when there is excess heterogeneity, it is clearly superior to fixed-effect meta-analysis. In practical applications, an unrestricted weighted least squares weighted average will often provide superior estimates to both conventional fixed and random effects. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect Size in Efficacy Trials of Women With Decreased Sexual Desire.

PubMed

Pyke, Robert E; Clayton, Anita H

2018-03-22

Regarding hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD) in women, some reviewers judge the effect size small for medications vs placebo, but substantial for cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) or mindfulness meditation training (MMT) vs wait list. However, we lack comparisons of the effect sizes for the active intervention itself, for the control treatment, and for the differential between the two. For efficacy trials of HSDD in women, compare effect sizes for medications (testosterone/testosterone transdermal system, flibanserin, and bremelanotide) and placebo vs effect sizes for psychotherapy and wait-list control. We conducted a literature search for mean changes and SD on main measures of sexual desire and associated distress in trials of medications, CBT, or MMT. Effect size was used as it measures the magnitude of the intervention without confounding by sample size. Cohen d was used to determine effect sizes. For medications, mean (SD) effect size was 1.0 (0.34); for CBT and MMT, 1.0 (0.36); for placebo, 0.55 (0.16); and for wait list, 0.05 (0.26). Recommendations of psychotherapy over medication for treatment of HSDD are premature and not supported by data on effect sizes. Active participation in treatment conveys considerable non-specific benefits. Caregivers should attend to biological and psychosocial elements, and patient preference, to optimize response. Few clinical trials of psychotherapies were substantial in size or utilized adequate control paradigms. Medications and psychotherapies had similar, large effect sizes. Effect size of placebo was moderate. Effect size of wait-list control was very small, about one quarter that of placebo. Thus, a substantial non-specific therapeutic effect is associated with receiving placebo plus active care and evaluation. The difference in effect size between placebo and wait-list controls distorts the value of the subtraction of effect of the control paradigms to estimate intervention effectiveness. Pyke RE, Clayton AH. Effect Size in Efficacy Trials of Women With Decreased Sexual Desire. Sex Med Rev 2018;XX:XXX-XXX. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unexpected finite size effects in interfacial systems: Why bigger is not always better—Increase in uncertainty of surface tension with bulk phase width

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longford, Francis G. J.; Essex, Jonathan W.; Skylaris, Chris-Kriton; Frey, Jeremy G.

2018-06-01

We present an unexpected finite size effect affecting interfacial molecular simulations that is proportional to the width-to-surface-area ratio of the bulk phase Ll/A. This finite size effect has a significant impact on the variance of surface tension values calculated using the virial summation method. A theoretical derivation of the origin of the effect is proposed, giving a new insight into the importance of optimising system dimensions in interfacial simulations. We demonstrate the consequences of this finite size effect via a new way to estimate the surface energetic and entropic properties of simulated air-liquid interfaces. Our method is based on macroscopic thermodynamic theory and involves comparing the internal energies of systems with varying dimensions. We present the testing of these methods using simulations of the TIP4P/2005 water forcefield and a Lennard-Jones fluid model of argon. Finally, we provide suggestions of additional situations, in which this finite size effect is expected to be significant, as well as possible ways to avoid its impact.

Influence of outliers on accuracy estimation in genomic prediction in plant breeding.

PubMed

Estaghvirou, Sidi Boubacar Ould; Ogutu, Joseph O; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2014-10-01

Outliers often pose problems in analyses of data in plant breeding, but their influence on the performance of methods for estimating predictive accuracy in genomic prediction studies has not yet been evaluated. Here, we evaluate the influence of outliers on the performance of methods for accuracy estimation in genomic prediction studies using simulation. We simulated 1000 datasets for each of 10 scenarios to evaluate the influence of outliers on the performance of seven methods for estimating accuracy. These scenarios are defined by the number of genotypes, marker effect variance, and magnitude of outliers. To mimic outliers, we added to one observation in each simulated dataset, in turn, 5-, 8-, and 10-times the error SD used to simulate small and large phenotypic datasets. The effect of outliers on accuracy estimation was evaluated by comparing deviations in the estimated and true accuracies for datasets with and without outliers. Outliers adversely influenced accuracy estimation, more so at small values of genetic variance or number of genotypes. A method for estimating heritability and predictive accuracy in plant breeding and another used to estimate accuracy in animal breeding were the most accurate and resistant to outliers across all scenarios and are therefore preferable for accuracy estimation in genomic prediction studies. The performances of the other five methods that use cross-validation were less consistent and varied widely across scenarios. The computing time for the methods increased as the size of outliers and sample size increased and the genetic variance decreased. Copyright © 2014 Ould Estaghvirou et al.

Empirical Bayes Gaussian likelihood estimation of exposure distributions from pooled samples in human biomonitoring.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Kuk, Anthony Y C; Xu, Jinfeng

2014-12-10

Human biomonitoring of exposure to environmental chemicals is important. Individual monitoring is not viable because of low individual exposure level or insufficient volume of materials and the prohibitive cost of taking measurements from many subjects. Pooling of samples is an efficient and cost-effective way to collect data. Estimation is, however, complicated as individual values within each pool are not observed but are only known up to their average or weighted average. The distribution of such averages is intractable when the individual measurements are lognormally distributed, which is a common assumption. We propose to replace the intractable distribution of the pool averages by a Gaussian likelihood to obtain parameter estimates. If the pool size is large, this method produces statistically efficient estimates, but regardless of pool size, the method yields consistent estimates as the number of pools increases. An empirical Bayes (EB) Gaussian likelihood approach, as well as its Bayesian analog, is developed to pool information from various demographic groups by using a mixed-effect formulation. We also discuss methods to estimate the underlying mean-variance relationship and to select a good model for the means, which can be incorporated into the proposed EB or Bayes framework. By borrowing strength across groups, the EB estimator is more efficient than the individual group-specific estimator. Simulation results show that the EB Gaussian likelihood estimates outperform a previous method proposed for the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys with much smaller bias and better coverage in interval estimation, especially after correction of bias. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Indoor Spatial Updating with Reduced Visual Information

PubMed Central

Legge, Gordon E.; Gage, Rachel; Baek, Yihwa; Bochsler, Tiana M.

2016-01-01

Purpose Spatial updating refers to the ability to keep track of position and orientation while moving through an environment. People with impaired vision may be less accurate in spatial updating with adverse consequences for indoor navigation. In this study, we asked how artificial restrictions on visual acuity and field size affect spatial updating, and also judgments of the size of rooms. Methods Normally sighted young adults were tested with artificial restriction of acuity in Mild Blur (Snellen 20/135) and Severe Blur (Snellen 20/900) conditions, and a Narrow Field (8°) condition. The subjects estimated the dimensions of seven rectangular rooms with and without these visual restrictions. They were also guided along three-segment paths in the rooms. At the end of each path, they were asked to estimate the distance and direction to the starting location. In Experiment 1, the subjects walked along the path. In Experiment 2, they were pushed in a wheelchair to determine if reduced proprioceptive input would result in poorer spatial updating. Results With unrestricted vision, mean Weber fractions for room-size estimates were near 20%. Severe Blur but not Mild Blur yielded larger errors in room-size judgments. The Narrow Field was associated with increased error, but less than with Severe Blur. There was no effect of visual restriction on estimates of distance back to the starting location, and only Severe Blur yielded larger errors in the direction estimates. Contrary to expectation, the wheelchair subjects did not exhibit poorer updating performance than the walking subjects, nor did they show greater dependence on visual condition. Discussion If our results generalize to people with low vision, severe deficits in acuity or field will adversely affect the ability to judge the size of indoor spaces, but updating of position and orientation may be less affected by visual impairment. PMID:26943674

Indoor Spatial Updating with Reduced Visual Information.

PubMed

Legge, Gordon E; Gage, Rachel; Baek, Yihwa; Bochsler, Tiana M

2016-01-01

Spatial updating refers to the ability to keep track of position and orientation while moving through an environment. People with impaired vision may be less accurate in spatial updating with adverse consequences for indoor navigation. In this study, we asked how artificial restrictions on visual acuity and field size affect spatial updating, and also judgments of the size of rooms. Normally sighted young adults were tested with artificial restriction of acuity in Mild Blur (Snellen 20/135) and Severe Blur (Snellen 20/900) conditions, and a Narrow Field (8°) condition. The subjects estimated the dimensions of seven rectangular rooms with and without these visual restrictions. They were also guided along three-segment paths in the rooms. At the end of each path, they were asked to estimate the distance and direction to the starting location. In Experiment 1, the subjects walked along the path. In Experiment 2, they were pushed in a wheelchair to determine if reduced proprioceptive input would result in poorer spatial updating. With unrestricted vision, mean Weber fractions for room-size estimates were near 20%. Severe Blur but not Mild Blur yielded larger errors in room-size judgments. The Narrow Field was associated with increased error, but less than with Severe Blur. There was no effect of visual restriction on estimates of distance back to the starting location, and only Severe Blur yielded larger errors in the direction estimates. Contrary to expectation, the wheelchair subjects did not exhibit poorer updating performance than the walking subjects, nor did they show greater dependence on visual condition. If our results generalize to people with low vision, severe deficits in acuity or field will adversely affect the ability to judge the size of indoor spaces, but updating of position and orientation may be less affected by visual impairment.

Analysis of methods commonly used in biomedicine for treatment versus control comparison of very small samples.

PubMed

Ristić-Djurović, Jasna L; Ćirković, Saša; Mladenović, Pavle; Romčević, Nebojša; Trbovich, Alexander M

2018-04-01

A rough estimate indicated that use of samples of size not larger than ten is not uncommon in biomedical research and that many of such studies are limited to strong effects due to sample sizes smaller than six. For data collected from biomedical experiments it is also often unknown if mathematical requirements incorporated in the sample comparison methods are satisfied. Computer simulated experiments were used to examine performance of methods for qualitative sample comparison and its dependence on the effectiveness of exposure, effect intensity, distribution of studied parameter values in the population, and sample size. The Type I and Type II errors, their average, as well as the maximal errors were considered. The sample size 9 and the t-test method with p = 5% ensured error smaller than 5% even for weak effects. For sample sizes 6-8 the same method enabled detection of weak effects with errors smaller than 20%. If the sample sizes were 3-5, weak effects could not be detected with an acceptable error; however, the smallest maximal error in the most general case that includes weak effects is granted by the standard error of the mean method. The increase of sample size from 5 to 9 led to seven times more accurate detection of weak effects. Strong effects were detected regardless of the sample size and method used. The minimal recommended sample size for biomedical experiments is 9. Use of smaller sizes and the method of their comparison should be justified by the objective of the experiment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A meta-analysis of factors affecting trust in human-robot interaction.

PubMed

Hancock, Peter A; Billings, Deborah R; Schaefer, Kristin E; Chen, Jessie Y C; de Visser, Ewart J; Parasuraman, Raja

2011-10-01

We evaluate and quantify the effects of human, robot, and environmental factors on perceived trust in human-robot interaction (HRI). To date, reviews of trust in HRI have been qualitative or descriptive. Our quantitative review provides a fundamental empirical foundation to advance both theory and practice. Meta-analytic methods were applied to the available literature on trust and HRI. A total of 29 empirical studies were collected, of which 10 met the selection criteria for correlational analysis and 11 for experimental analysis. These studies provided 69 correlational and 47 experimental effect sizes. The overall correlational effect size for trust was r = +0.26,with an experimental effect size of d = +0.71. The effects of human, robot, and environmental characteristics were examined with an especial evaluation of the robot dimensions of performance and attribute-based factors. The robot performance and attributes were the largest contributors to the development of trust in HRI. Environmental factors played only a moderate role. Factors related to the robot itself, specifically, its performance, had the greatest current association with trust, and environmental factors were moderately associated. There was little evidence for effects of human-related factors. The findings provide quantitative estimates of human, robot, and environmental factors influencing HRI trust. Specifically, the current summary provides effect size estimates that are useful in establishing design and training guidelines with reference to robot-related factors of HRI trust. Furthermore, results indicate that improper trust calibration may be mitigated by the manipulation of robot design. However, many future research needs are identified.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Temporal genetic structure of a drone congregation area of the giant Asian honeybee ( Apis dorsata)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraus, F. B.; Koeniger, N.; Tingek, S.; Moritz, R. F. A.

2005-12-01

The giant Asian honeybee ( Apis dorsata), like all other members of the genus Apis, has a complex mating system in which the queens and males (drones) mate at spatially defined drone congregation areas (DCAs). Here, we studied the temporal genetic structure of a DCA of A. dorsata over an 8-day time window by the genotyping of sampled drones with microsatellite markers. Analysis of the genotypic data revealed a significant genetic differentiation between 3 sampling days and indicated that the DCA was used by at least two subpopulations at all days in varying proportions. The estimation of the number of colonies which used the DCA ranged between 20 and 40 colonies per subpopulation, depending on the estimation procedure and population. The overall effective population size was estimated as high as N e=140. The DCA seems to counteract known tendencies of A. dorsata for inbreeding within colony aggregations by facilitating gene flow among subpopulations and increasing the effective population size.

Estimating pore and cement volumes in thin section

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halley, R.B.

1978-01-01

Point count estimates of pore, grain and cement volumes from thin sections are inaccurate, often by more than 100 percent, even though they may be surprisingly precise (reproducibility + or - 3 percent). Errors are produced by: 1) inclusion of submicroscopic pore space within solid volume and 2) edge effects caused by grain curvature within a 30-micron thick thin section. Submicroscopic porosity may be measured by various physical tests or may be visually estimated from scanning electron micrographs. Edge error takes the form of an envelope around grains and increases with decreasing grain size and sorting, increasing grain irregularity and tighter grain packing. Cements are greatly involved in edge error because of their position at grain peripheries and their generally small grain size. Edge error is minimized by methods which reduce the thickness of the sample viewed during point counting. Methods which effectively reduce thickness include use of ultra-thin thin sections or acetate peels, point counting in reflected light, or carefully focusing and counting on the upper surface of the thin section.

Brain size growth in wild and captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

PubMed

Cofran, Zachary

2018-05-24

Despite many studies of chimpanzee brain size growth, intraspecific variation is under-explored. Brain size data from chimpanzees of the Taï Forest and the Yerkes Primate Research Center enable a unique glimpse into brain growth variation as age at death is known for individuals, allowing cross-sectional growth curves to be estimated. Because Taï chimpanzees are from the wild but Yerkes apes are captive, potential environmental effects on neural development can also be explored. Previous research has revealed differences in growth and health between wild and captive primates, but such habitat effects have yet to be investigated for brain growth. Here, I use an iterative curve fitting procedure to estimate brain growth and regression parameters for each population, statistically comparing growth models using bootstrapped confidence intervals. Yerkes and Taï brain sizes overlap at all ages, although the sole Taï newborn is at the low end of captive neonatal variation. Growth rate and duration are statistically indistinguishable between the two populations. Resampling the Yerkes sample to match the Taï sample size and age group composition shows that ontogenetic variation in the two groups are remarkably similar despite the latter's limited size. Best fit growth curves for each sample indicate cessation of brain size growth at around 2 years, earlier than has previously been reported. The overall similarity between wild and captive chimpanzees points to the canalization of brain growth in this species. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk assessment for juvenile justice: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schwalbe, Craig S

2007-10-01

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.

Parachute mortar design.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pleasants, J. E.

1973-01-01

Mortars are used as one method for ejecting parachutes into the airstream to decelerate spacecraft and aircraft pilot escape modules and to effect spin recovery of the aircraft. An approach to design of mortars in the class that can accommodate parachutes in the 20- to 55-foot-diameter size is presented. Parachute deployment considerations are discussed. Comments are made on the design of a power unit, mortar tube, cover, and sabot. Propellant selection and breech characteristics and size are discussed. A method of estimating hardware weights and reaction load is presented. In addition, some aspects of erodible orifices are given as well as comments concerning ambient effects on performance. This paper collates data and experience from design and flight qualification of four mortar systems, and provides pertinent estimations that should be of interest on programs considering parachute deployment.

Consequences of Not Accounting for One-Group Clustering in Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Citkowicz, Martyna; Polanin, Joshua R.

2014-01-01

Meta-analyses are syntheses of effect-size estimates obtained from a collection of studies to summarize a particular field or topic (Hedges, 1992; Lipsey & Wilson, 2001). These reviews are used to integrate knowledge that can inform both scientific inquiry and public policy, therefore it is important to ensure that the estimates of the effect…

Multilocus analyses reveal little evidence for lineage-wide adaptive evolution within major clades of soft pines (Pinus subgenus Strobus)

Treesearch

Andrew J. Eckert; Andrew D. Bower; Kathleen D. Jermstad; Jill L. Wegrzyn; Brian J. Knaus; John V. Syring; David B. Neale

2013-01-01

Estimates from molecular data for the fraction of new nonsynonymous mutations that are adaptive vary strongly across plant species. Much of this variation is due to differences in life history strategies as they influence the effective population size (Ne). Ample variation for these estimates, however, remains even when...

A Mixture Rasch Model with a Covariate: A Simulation Study via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dai, Yunyun

2013-01-01

Mixtures of item response theory (IRT) models have been proposed as a technique to explore response patterns in test data related to cognitive strategies, instructional sensitivity, and differential item functioning (DIF). Estimation proves challenging due to difficulties in identification and questions of effect size needed to recover underlying…

A Simple Effect Size Estimator for Single Case Designs Using WinBUGS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rindskopf, David; Shadish, William; Hedges, Larry V.

2012-01-01

This conference presentation demonstrates a multilevel model for analyzing single case designs. The model is implemented in the Bayesian program WinBUGS. The authors show how it is possible to estimate a d-statistic like the one in Hedges, Pustejovsky and Shadish (2012) in this program. Results are demonstrated on an example.

Biased phylodynamic inferences from analysing clusters of viral sequences

PubMed Central

Xiang, Fei; Frost, Simon D. W.

2017-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetic methods are being increasingly used to help understand the transmission dynamics of measurably evolving viruses, including HIV. Clusters of highly similar sequences are often observed, which appear to follow a ‘power law’ behaviour, with a small number of very large clusters. These clusters may help to identify subpopulations in an epidemic, and inform where intervention strategies should be implemented. However, clustering of samples does not necessarily imply the presence of a subpopulation with high transmission rates, as groups of closely related viruses can also occur due to non-epidemiological effects such as over-sampling. It is important to ensure that observed phylogenetic clustering reflects true heterogeneity in the transmitting population, and is not being driven by non-epidemiological effects. We qualify the effect of using a falsely identified ‘transmission cluster’ of sequences to estimate phylodynamic parameters including the effective population size and exponential growth rate under several demographic scenarios. Our simulation studies show that taking the maximum size cluster to re-estimate parameters from trees simulated under a randomly mixing, constant population size coalescent process systematically underestimates the overall effective population size. In addition, the transmission cluster wrongly resembles an exponential or logistic growth model 99% of the time. We also illustrate the consequences of false clusters in exponentially growing coalescent and birth-death trees, where again, the growth rate is skewed upwards. This has clear implications for identifying clusters in large viral databases, where a false cluster could result in wasted intervention resources. PMID:28852573

Demonstration and evaluation of a method for assessing mediated moderation.

PubMed

Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A; MacKinnon, David P

2006-02-01

Mediated moderation occurs when the interaction between two variables affects a mediator, which then affects a dependent variable. In this article, we describe the mediated moderation model and evaluate it with a statistical simulation using an adaptation of product-of-coefficients methods to assess mediation. We also demonstrate the use of this method with a substantive example from the adolescent tobacco literature. In the simulation, relative bias (RB) in point estimates and standard errors did not exceed problematic levels of +/- 10% although systematic variability in RB was accounted for by parameter size, sample size, and nonzero direct effects. Power to detect mediated moderation effects appears to be severely compromised under one particular combination of conditions: when the component variables that make up the interaction terms are correlated and partial mediated moderation exists. Implications for the estimation of mediated moderation effects in experimental and nonexperimental research are discussed.

Effects of sources of variability on sample sizes required for RCTs, applied to trials of lipid-altering therapies on carotid artery intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Koglin, Joerg; Bain, Raymond P; Pinto, Cathy-Anne; Mitchel, Yale B; Pasternak, Richard C; Sapre, Aditi

2009-08-01

Studies measuring progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) have been used to estimate the effect of lipid-modifying therapies cardiovascular event risk. The likelihood that future cIMT clinical trials will detect a true treatment effect is estimated by leveraging results from prior studies. The present analyses assess the impact of between- and within-study variability based on currently published data from prior clinical studies on the likelihood that ongoing or future cIMT trials will detect the true treatment effect of lipid-modifying therapies. Published data from six contemporary cIMT studies (ASAP, ARBITER 2, RADIANCE 1, RADIANCE 2, ENHANCE, and METEOR) including data from a total of 3563 patients were examined. Bayesian and frequentist methods were used to assess the impact of between study variability on the likelihood of detecting true treatment effects on 1-year cIMT progression/regression and to provide a sample size estimate that would specifically compensate for the effect of between-study variability. In addition to the well-described within-study variability, there is considerable between-study variability associated with the measurement of annualized change in cIMT. Accounting for the additional between-study variability decreases the power for existing study designs. In order to account for the added between-study variability, it is likely that future cIMT studies would require a large increase in sample size in order to provide substantial probability (> or =90%) to have 90% power of detecting a true treatment effect.Limitation Analyses are based on study level data. Future meta-analyses incorporating patient-level data would be useful for confirmation. Due to substantial within- and between-study variability in the measure of 1-year change of cIMT, as well as uncertainty about progression rates in contemporary populations, future study designs evaluating the effect of new lipid-modifying therapies on atherosclerotic disease progression are likely to be challenged by large sample sizes in order to demonstrate a true treatment effect.

Multi-site study of additive genetic effects on fractional anisotropy of cerebral white matter: Comparing meta and megaanalytical approaches for data pooling.

PubMed

Kochunov, Peter; Jahanshad, Neda; Sprooten, Emma; Nichols, Thomas E; Mandl, René C; Almasy, Laura; Booth, Tom; Brouwer, Rachel M; Curran, Joanne E; de Zubicaray, Greig I; Dimitrova, Rali; Duggirala, Ravi; Fox, Peter T; Hong, L Elliot; Landman, Bennett A; Lemaitre, Hervé; Lopez, Lorna M; Martin, Nicholas G; McMahon, Katie L; Mitchell, Braxton D; Olvera, Rene L; Peterson, Charles P; Starr, John M; Sussmann, Jessika E; Toga, Arthur W; Wardlaw, Joanna M; Wright, Margaret J; Wright, Susan N; Bastin, Mark E; McIntosh, Andrew M; Boomsma, Dorret I; Kahn, René S; den Braber, Anouk; de Geus, Eco J C; Deary, Ian J; Hulshoff Pol, Hilleke E; Williamson, Douglas E; Blangero, John; van 't Ent, Dennis; Thompson, Paul M; Glahn, David C

2014-07-15

Combining datasets across independent studies can boost statistical power by increasing the numbers of observations and can achieve more accurate estimates of effect sizes. This is especially important for genetic studies where a large number of observations are required to obtain sufficient power to detect and replicate genetic effects. There is a need to develop and evaluate methods for joint-analytical analyses of rich datasets collected in imaging genetics studies. The ENIGMA-DTI consortium is developing and evaluating approaches for obtaining pooled estimates of heritability through meta-and mega-genetic analytical approaches, to estimate the general additive genetic contributions to the intersubject variance in fractional anisotropy (FA) measured from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). We used the ENIGMA-DTI data harmonization protocol for uniform processing of DTI data from multiple sites. We evaluated this protocol in five family-based cohorts providing data from a total of 2248 children and adults (ages: 9-85) collected with various imaging protocols. We used the imaging genetics analysis tool, SOLAR-Eclipse, to combine twin and family data from Dutch, Australian and Mexican-American cohorts into one large "mega-family". We showed that heritability estimates may vary from one cohort to another. We used two meta-analytical (the sample-size and standard-error weighted) approaches and a mega-genetic analysis to calculate heritability estimates across-population. We performed leave-one-out analysis of the joint estimates of heritability, removing a different cohort each time to understand the estimate variability. Overall, meta- and mega-genetic analyses of heritability produced robust estimates of heritability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.