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Sample records for effective population sizes

  1. Effective sizes for subdivided populations

    SciTech Connect

    Chesser, R.K. Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA ); Rhodes, O.E. Jr.; Sugg, D.W.; Schnabel, A. )

    1993-12-01

    Many derivations of effective population sizes have been suggested in the literature; however, few account for the breeding structure and none can readily be expanded to subdivided populations. Breeding structures influence gene correlations through their effects on the number of breeding individuals of each sex, the mean number of progeny per female, and the variance in the number of progeny produced by males and females. Additionally, hierarchical structuring in a population is determined by the number of breeding groups and the migration rates of males and females among such groups. This study derives analytical solutions for effective sizes that can be applied to subdivided populations. Parameters that encapsulate breeding structure and subdivision are utilized to derive the traditional inbreeding and variance effective sizes. Also, it is shown that effective sizes can be determined for any hierarchical level of population structure for which gene correlations can accrue. Derivations of effective sizes for the accumulation of gene correlations within breeding groups (coancestral effective size) and among breeding groups (intergroup effective size) are given. The results converge to traditional single population measures when similar assumptions are applied. In particular, inbreeding and intergroup effective sizes are shown to be special cases of the coancestral effective size, and intergroup and variance effective sizes will be equal if the population census remains constant. Instantaneous solutions for effective size, at any time after gene correlation begins to accrue, are given in terms of traditional F statistics or transition equations. All effective sizes are shown to converge upon a common asymptotic value when breeding tactics and migration rates are constant. The asymptotic effective size can be expressed in terms of the fixation indices and the number of breeding groups; however, the rate of approach to the asymptote is dependent upon dispersal rates.

  2. Effective population size and population subdivision in demographically structured populations.

    PubMed Central

    Laporte, Valérie; Charlesworth, Brian

    2002-01-01

    A fast-timescale approximation is applied to the coalescent process in a single population, which is demographically structured by sex and/or age. This provides a general expression for the probability that a pair of alleles sampled from the population coalesce in the previous time interval. The effective population size is defined as the reciprocal of twice the product of generation time and the coalescence probability. Biologically explicit formulas for effective population size with discrete generations and separate sexes are derived for a variety of different modes of inheritance. The method is also applied to a nuclear gene in a population of partially self-fertilizing hermaphrodites. The effects of population subdivision on a demographically structured population are analyzed, using a matrix of net rates of movement of genes between different local populations. This involves weighting the migration probabilities of individuals of a given age/sex class by the contribution of this class to the leading left eigenvector of the matrix describing the movements of genes between age/sex classes. The effects of sex-specific migration and nonrandom distributions of offspring number on levels of genetic variability and among-population differentiation are described for different modes of inheritance in an island model. Data on DNA sequence variability in human and plant populations are discussed in the light of the results. PMID:12242257

  3. Effective Population Sizes with Multiple Paternity

    PubMed Central

    Sugg, D. W.; Chesser, R. K.

    1994-01-01

    While the concept of effective population size is of obvious applicability to many questions in population genetics and conservation biology, its utility has suffered due to a lack of agreement among its various formulations. Often, mathematical formulations for effective sizes apply restrictive assumptions that limit their applicability. Herein, expressions for effective sizes of populations that account for mating tactics, biases in sex ratios, and differential dispersal rates (among other parameters) are developed. Of primary interest is the influence of multiple paternity on the maintenance of genetic variation in a population. In addition to the standard inbreeding and variance effective sizes, intragroup (coancestral) and intergroup effective sizes also are developed. Expressions for effective sizes are developed for the beginning of nonrandom gene exchanges (initial effective sizes), the transition of gene correlations (instantaneous effective sizes), and the steady-state (asymptotic effective size). Results indicate that systems of mating that incorporate more than one male mate per female increase all effective sizes above those expected from polygyny and monogamy. Instantaneous and asymptotic sizes can be expressed relative to the fixation indices. The parameters presented herein can be utilized in models of effective sizes for the study of evolutionary biology and conservation genetics. PMID:7982568

  4. Detecting past changes of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

    2014-06-01

    Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff.

  5. Prediction and estimation of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Santiago, E; Caballero, A

    2016-10-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter in population genetics. It has important applications in evolutionary biology, conservation genetics and plant and animal breeding, because it measures the rates of genetic drift and inbreeding and affects the efficacy of systematic evolutionary forces, such as mutation, selection and migration. We review the developments in predictive equations and estimation methodologies of effective size. In the prediction part, we focus on the equations for populations with different modes of reproduction, for populations under selection for unlinked or linked loci and for the specific applications to conservation genetics. In the estimation part, we focus on methods developed for estimating the current or recent effective size from molecular marker or sequence data. We discuss some underdeveloped areas in predicting and estimating Ne for future research. PMID:27353047

  6. Prediction and estimation of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Santiago, E; Caballero, A

    2016-10-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter in population genetics. It has important applications in evolutionary biology, conservation genetics and plant and animal breeding, because it measures the rates of genetic drift and inbreeding and affects the efficacy of systematic evolutionary forces, such as mutation, selection and migration. We review the developments in predictive equations and estimation methodologies of effective size. In the prediction part, we focus on the equations for populations with different modes of reproduction, for populations under selection for unlinked or linked loci and for the specific applications to conservation genetics. In the estimation part, we focus on methods developed for estimating the current or recent effective size from molecular marker or sequence data. We discuss some underdeveloped areas in predicting and estimating Ne for future research.

  7. Effective Size of Populations under Selection

    PubMed Central

    Santiago, E.; Caballero, A.

    1995-01-01

    Equations to approximate the effective size (N(e)) of populations under continued selection are obtained that include the possibility of partial full-sib mating and other systems such as assortative mating. The general equation for the case of equal number of sexes and constant number of breeding individuals (N) is N(e) = 4N/[2(1 - α(I)) + (S(k)(2) + 4Q(2)C(2)) (1 + α(I) + 2α(O))], where S(k)(2) is the variance of family size due to sampling without selection, C(2) is the variance of selective advantages among families (the squared coefficient of variation of the expected number of offspring per family), α(I) is the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions, α(O) is the correlation between genes of male and female parents, and Q(2) is the term accounting for the cumulative effect of selection on an inherited trait. This is obtained as Q = 2/[2 - G(1 + r)], where G is the remaining proportion of genetic variance in selected individuals and r is the correlation of the expected selective values of male and female parents. The method is also extended to the general case of different numbers of male and female parents. The predictive value of the formulae is tested under a model of truncation selection with the infinitesimal model of gene effects, where C(2) and G are a function of the selection intensity, the heritability and the intraclass correlation of sibs. Under random mating r = α(I) = -1/(N - 1) and α(O) = 0. Under partial full-sib mating with an average proportion β of full-sib matings per generation, r & β and α(O) & α(I) & β/ (4 - 3β). The prediction equation is compared to other approximations based on the long-term contributions of ancestors to descendants. Finally, based on the approach followed, a system of mating (compensatory mating) is proposed to reduce rates of inbreeding without loss of response in selection programs in which selected individuals from the largest families are mated to those from the smallest families. PMID:7713405

  8. Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

    PubMed

    Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

    2016-07-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub.

  9. Drift by drift: effective population size is limited by advection

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Background Genetic estimates of effective population size often generate surprising results, including dramatically low ratios of effective population size to census size. This is particularly true for many marine species, and this effect has been associated with hypotheses of "sweepstakes" reproduction and selective hitchhiking. Results Here we show that in advective environments such as oceans and rivers, the mean asymmetric transport of passively dispersed reproductive propagules will act to limit the effective population size in species with a drifting developmental stage. As advection increases, effective population size becomes decoupled from census size as the persistence of novel genetic lineages is restricted to those that arise in a small upstream portion of the species domain. Conclusion This result leads to predictions about the maintenance of diversity in advective systems, and complements the "sweepstakes" hypothesis and other hypotheses proposed to explain cases of low allelic diversity in species with high fecundity. We describe the spatial extent of the species domain in which novel allelic diversity will be retained, thus determining how large an appropriately placed marine reserve must be to allow the persistence of endemic allelic diversity. PMID:18710549

  10. The effect of neighborhood size on effective population size in theory and in practice.

    PubMed

    Nunney, L

    2016-10-01

    The distinction between the effective size of a population (Ne) and the effective size of its neighborhoods (Nn) has sometimes become blurred. Ne reflects the effect of random sampling on the genetic composition of a population of size N, whereas Nn is a measure of within-population spatial genetic structure and depends strongly on the dispersal characteristics of a species. Although Nn is independent of Ne, the reverse is not true. Using simulations of a population of annual plants, it was found that the effect of Nn on Ne was well approximated by Ne=N/(1-FIS), where FIS (determined by Nn) was evaluated population wide. Nn only had a notable influence of increasing Ne as it became smaller (⩽16). In contrast, the effect of Nn on genetic estimates of Ne was substantial. Using the temporal method (a standard two-sample approach) based on 1000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and varying sampling method, sample size (2-25% of N) and interval between samples (T=1-32 generations), estimates of Ne ranged from infinity to <0.1% of the true value (defined as Ne based on 100% sampling). Estimates were never accurate unless Nn and T were large. Three sampling techniques were tested: same-site resampling, different-site resampling and random sampling. Random sampling was the least biased method. Extremely low estimates often resulted when different-site resampling was used, especially when the population was large and the sample fraction was small, raising the possibility that this estimation bias could be a factor determining some very low Ne/N that have been published. PMID:27553453

  11. Inferring the Dynamics of Effective Population Size Using Autosomal Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Zheng; Luo, Yin; Wang, Zhisheng; Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Hang; Wu, Leqin; Jin, Li

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing technology has provided a great opportunity for inferring human demographic history by investigating changes in the effective population size (Ne). In this report, we introduce a strategy for estimating Ne dynamics, allowing the exploration of large multi-locus SNP datasets. We applied this strategy to the Phase 1 Han Chinese samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. The Han Chinese population has undergone a continuous expansion since 25,000 years ago, at first slowly from about 7,300 to 9,800 (at the end of the last glacial maximum about 15,000 YBP), then more quickly to about 46,000 (at the beginning of the Neolithic about 8,000 YBP), and then even more quickly to reach a population size of about 140,000 (recently). PMID:26832887

  12. Comparing effective population sizes of dominant marine alphaproteobacteria lineages.

    PubMed

    Luo, Haiwei; Swan, Brandon K; Stepanauskas, Ramunas; Hughes, Austin L; Moran, Mary Ann

    2014-04-01

    A fundamental question in marine microbial ecology is how microbes adapt to ocean environments. Although numerically dominant populations are typically considered more successful, higher census population sizes (Nc) do not equate directly to a greater capability for adaptation. Instead, effective population size (Ne) determines the fate of deleterious and favourable mutations, and thus is a key parameter for determining the adaptive potential of a population. In the case of the SAR11 and Roseobacter lineages, two abundant heterotrophic bacteria in ocean surface waters with contrasting life history strategies, culture-independent population surveys suggest that SAR11s have greater Nc than Roseobacters. To determine relative Ne, we compared the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rates (ω) of recently diverged lineages of these taxa. Values of ω associated with several of the Roseobacter subclades were lower than for SAR11 subclades, suggesting greater Ne in these cases. Most Roseobacter lineages also had smaller ω values compared with an atypical basal Roseobacter lineage with a large Nc. This finding provides insight into variability in Ne across two important marine bacterial lineages, and provides an evolutionary context for considering how heterotrophic marine bacteria may differ in their ability to adapt to changing ocean habitats.

  13. Effects of body size and temperature on population growth.

    PubMed

    Savage, Van M; Gilloly, James F; Brown, James H; Charnov, Eric L

    2004-03-01

    For at least 200 years, since the time of Malthus, population growth has been recognized as providing a critical link between the performance of individual organisms and the ecology and evolution of species. We present a theory that shows how the intrinsic rate of exponential population growth, rmax, and the carrying capacity, K, depend on individual metabolic rate and resource supply rate. To do this, we construct equations for the metabolic rates of entire populations by summing over individuals, and then we combine these population-level equations with Malthusian growth. Thus, the theory makes explicit the relationship between rates of resource supply in the environment and rates of production of new biomass and individuals. These individual-level and population-level processes are inextricably linked because metabolism sets both the demand for environmental resources and the resource allocation to survival, growth, and reproduction. We use the theory to make explicit how and why rmax exhibits its characteristic dependence on body size and temperature. Data for aerobic eukaryotes, including algae, protists, insects, zooplankton, fishes, and mammals, support these predicted scalings for rmax. The metabolic flux of energy and materials also dictates that the carrying capacity or equilibrium density of populations should decrease with increasing body size and increasing temperature. Finally, we argue that body mass and body temperature, through their effects on metabolic rate, can explain most of the variation in fecundity and mortality rates. Data for marine fishes in the field support these predictions for instantaneous rates of mortality. This theory links the rates of metabolism and resource use of individuals to life-history attributes and population dynamics for a broad assortment of organisms, from unicellular organisms to mammals.

  14. Making sense of genetic estimates of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S

    2016-10-01

    The last decade has seen an explosion of interest in use of genetic markers to estimate effective population size, Ne . Effective population size is important both theoretically (Ne is a key parameter in almost every aspect of evolutionary biology) and for practical application (Ne determines rates of genetic drift and loss of genetic variability and modulates the effectiveness of selection, so it is crucial to consider in conservation). As documented by Palstra & Fraser (), most of the recent growth in Ne estimation can be attributed to development or refinement of methods that can use a single sample of individuals (the older temporal method requires at least two samples separated in time). As with other population genetic methods, performance of new Ne estimators is typically evaluated with simulated data for a few scenarios selected by the author(s). Inevitably, these initial evaluations fail to fully consider the consequences of violating simplifying assumptions, such as discrete generations, closed populations of constant size and selective neutrality. Subsequently, many researchers studying natural or captive populations have reported estimates of Ne for multiple methods; often these estimates are congruent, but that is not always the case. Because true Ne is rarely known in these empirical studies, it is difficult to make sense of the results when estimates differ substantially among methods. What is needed is a rigorous, comparative analysis under realistic scenarios for which true Ne is known. Recently, Gilbert & Whitlock () did just that for both single-sample and temporal methods under a wide range of migration schemes. In the current issue of Molecular Ecology, Wang () uses simulations to evaluate performance of four single-sample Ne estimators. In addition to assessing effects of true Ne , sample size, and number of loci, Wang also evaluated performance under changing abundance, physical linkage and genotyping errors, as well as for some alternative

  15. Family size and effective population size in a hatchery stock of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simon, R.C.; McIntyre, J.D.; Hemmingsen, A.R.

    1986-01-01

    Means and variances of family size measured in five year-classes of wire-tagged coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) were linearly related. Population effective size was calculated by using estimated means and variances of family size in a 25-yr data set. Although numbers of age 3 adults returning to the hatchery appeared to be large enough to avoid inbreeding problems (the 25-yr mean exceeded 4500), the numbers actually contributing to the hatchery production may be too low. Several strategies are proposed to correct the problem perceived. Argument is given to support the contention that the problem of effective size is fairly general and is not confined to the present study population.

  16. Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: there goes the neighborhood

    PubMed Central

    Neel, M C; McKelvey, K; Ryman, N; Lloyd, M W; Short Bull, R; Allendorf, F W; Schwartz, M K; Waples, R S

    2013-01-01

    Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating structure, as envisioned by Wright's concept of neighborhood size (NS), and evaluated performance of a single-sample estimator based on linkage disequilibrium (LD), which provides an estimate of the effective number of parents that produced the sample (Nb). Results illustrate the interacting effects of two phenomena, drift and mixture, that contribute to LD. Samples from areas equal to or smaller than a breeding window produced estimates close to the NS. As the sampling window increased in size to encompass multiple genetic neighborhoods, mixture LD from a two-locus Wahlund effect overwhelmed the reduction in drift LD from incorporating offspring from more parents. As a consequence, never approached the global Ne, even when the geographic scale of sampling was large. Results indicate that caution is needed in applying standard methods for estimating effective size to continuously distributed populations. PMID:23652561

  17. Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population.

    PubMed

    Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

    2016-10-01

    Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002-2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

  18. Population genomics of eusocial insects: the costs of a vertebrate-like effective population size.

    PubMed

    Romiguier, J; Lourenco, J; Gayral, P; Faivre, N; Weinert, L A; Ravel, S; Ballenghien, M; Cahais, V; Bernard, A; Loire, E; Keller, L; Galtier, N

    2014-03-01

    The evolution of reproductive division of labour and social life in social insects has lead to the emergence of several life-history traits and adaptations typical of larger organisms: social insect colonies can reach masses of several kilograms, they start reproducing only when they are several years old, and can live for decades. These features and the monopolization of reproduction by only one or few individuals in a colony should affect molecular evolution by reducing the effective population size. We tested this prediction by analysing genome-wide patterns of coding sequence polymorphism and divergence in eusocial vs. noneusocial insects based on newly generated RNA-seq data. We report very low amounts of genetic polymorphism and an elevated ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes – a marker of the effective population size – in four distinct species of eusocial insects, which were more similar to vertebrates than to solitary insects regarding molecular evolutionary processes. Moreover, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions was positively correlated with the level of social complexity across ant species. These results are fully consistent with the hypothesis of a reduced effective population size and an increased genetic load in eusocial insects, indicating that the evolution of social life has important consequences at both the genomic and population levels.

  19. Genome-Wide Estimates of Coancestry, Inbreeding and Effective Population Size in the Spanish Holstein Population

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez-Ramilo, Silvia Teresa; Fernández, Jesús; Toro, Miguel Angel; Hernández, Delfino; Villanueva, Beatriz

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of effective population size in the Holstein cattle breed have usually been low despite the large number of animals that constitute this breed. Effective population size is inversely related to the rates at which coancestry and inbreeding increase and these rates have been high as a consequence of intense and accurate selection. Traditionally, coancestry and inbreeding coefficients have been calculated from pedigree data. However, the development of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms has increased the interest of calculating these coefficients from molecular data in order to improve their accuracy. In this study, genomic estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size were obtained in the Spanish Holstein population and then compared with pedigree-based estimates. A total of 11,135 animals genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip were available for the study. After applying filtering criteria, the final genomic dataset included 36,693 autosomal SNPs and 10,569 animals. Pedigree data from those genotyped animals included 31,203 animals. These individuals represented only the last five generations in order to homogenise the amount of pedigree information across animals. Genomic estimates of coancestry and inbreeding were obtained from identity by descent segments (coancestry) or runs of homozygosity (inbreeding). The results indicate that the percentage of variance of pedigree-based coancestry estimates explained by genomic coancestry estimates was higher than that for inbreeding. Estimates of effective population size obtained from genome-wide and pedigree information were consistent and ranged from about 66 to 79. These low values emphasize the need of controlling the rate of increase of coancestry and inbreeding in Holstein selection programmes. PMID:25880228

  20. Genome-wide estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size in the Spanish Holstein population.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Ramilo, Silvia Teresa; Fernández, Jesús; Toro, Miguel Angel; Hernández, Delfino; Villanueva, Beatriz

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of effective population size in the Holstein cattle breed have usually been low despite the large number of animals that constitute this breed. Effective population size is inversely related to the rates at which coancestry and inbreeding increase and these rates have been high as a consequence of intense and accurate selection. Traditionally, coancestry and inbreeding coefficients have been calculated from pedigree data. However, the development of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms has increased the interest of calculating these coefficients from molecular data in order to improve their accuracy. In this study, genomic estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size were obtained in the Spanish Holstein population and then compared with pedigree-based estimates. A total of 11,135 animals genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip were available for the study. After applying filtering criteria, the final genomic dataset included 36,693 autosomal SNPs and 10,569 animals. Pedigree data from those genotyped animals included 31,203 animals. These individuals represented only the last five generations in order to homogenise the amount of pedigree information across animals. Genomic estimates of coancestry and inbreeding were obtained from identity by descent segments (coancestry) or runs of homozygosity (inbreeding). The results indicate that the percentage of variance of pedigree-based coancestry estimates explained by genomic coancestry estimates was higher than that for inbreeding. Estimates of effective population size obtained from genome-wide and pedigree information were consistent and ranged from about 66 to 79. These low values emphasize the need of controlling the rate of increase of coancestry and inbreeding in Holstein selection programmes.

  1. Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

    PubMed

    Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

    2004-10-01

    A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

  2. Sex change and effective population size: implications for population genetic studies in marine fish.

    PubMed

    Coscia, I; Chopelet, J; Waples, R S; Mann, B Q; Mariani, S

    2016-10-01

    Large variance in reproductive success is the primary factor that reduces effective population size (Ne) in natural populations. In sequentially hermaphroditic (sex-changing) fish, the sex ratio is typically skewed and biased towards the 'first' sex, while reproductive success increases considerably after sex change. Therefore, sex-changing fish populations are theoretically expected to have lower Ne than gonochorists (separate sexes), assuming all other parameters are essentially equal. In this study, we estimate Ne from genetic data collected from two ecologically similar species living along the eastern coast of South Africa: one gonochoristic, the 'santer' sea bream Cheimerius nufar, and one protogynous (female-first) sex changer, the 'slinger' sea bream Chrysoblephus puniceus. For both species, no evidence of genetic structuring, nor significant variation in genetic diversity, was found in the study area. Estimates of contemporary Ne were significantly lower in the protogynous species, but the same pattern was not apparent over historical timescales. Overall, our results show that sequential hermaphroditism may affect Ne differently over varying time frames, and that demographic signatures inferred from genetic markers with different inheritance modes also need to be interpreted cautiously, in relation to sex-changing life histories.

  3. Sex change and effective population size: implications for population genetic studies in marine fish.

    PubMed

    Coscia, I; Chopelet, J; Waples, R S; Mann, B Q; Mariani, S

    2016-10-01

    Large variance in reproductive success is the primary factor that reduces effective population size (Ne) in natural populations. In sequentially hermaphroditic (sex-changing) fish, the sex ratio is typically skewed and biased towards the 'first' sex, while reproductive success increases considerably after sex change. Therefore, sex-changing fish populations are theoretically expected to have lower Ne than gonochorists (separate sexes), assuming all other parameters are essentially equal. In this study, we estimate Ne from genetic data collected from two ecologically similar species living along the eastern coast of South Africa: one gonochoristic, the 'santer' sea bream Cheimerius nufar, and one protogynous (female-first) sex changer, the 'slinger' sea bream Chrysoblephus puniceus. For both species, no evidence of genetic structuring, nor significant variation in genetic diversity, was found in the study area. Estimates of contemporary Ne were significantly lower in the protogynous species, but the same pattern was not apparent over historical timescales. Overall, our results show that sequential hermaphroditism may affect Ne differently over varying time frames, and that demographic signatures inferred from genetic markers with different inheritance modes also need to be interpreted cautiously, in relation to sex-changing life histories. PMID:27507184

  4. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: fluctuations in population growth rate reduce effective population size in chinook salmon.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Jensen, David W; McClure, Michelle

    2010-03-01

    We empirically assess the relationship between population growth rate (lambda, a parameter central to ecology) and effective population size (N(e), a key parameter in evolutionary biology). Recent theoretical and numerical studies indicate that in semelparous species with variable age at maturity (such as Pacific salmon, many monocarpic plants, and various other species), differences in mean reproductive success among individuals reproducing in different years leads to variation in lambda, and this in turn can reduce N(e). However, this phenomenon has received little empirical evaluation. We examined time series of abundance data for 56 populations of chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha) from the northwestern United States and compared N(e) (calculated from demographic data) with the total number of spawners each generation (NT). Important results include: (1) The mean multigenerational ratio N(e)/N(T) was 0.64 (median = 0.67), indicating that annual variation in lambda reduces effective population size in chinook salmon by an average of approximately 35%. These reductions are independent of, and in addition to, factors that reduce N(e) within individual cohorts (uneven sex ratio and greater-than-random variance in reproductive success). (2) The coefficient of variation of lambda was the most important factor associated with reductions in N(e), explaining up to two-thirds of the variance in N(e)/N(T). (3) Within individual generations, N(e) was lower when there was a negative correlation between annual N(i) and lambda, i.e., when relatively few breeders produced relatively high numbers of offspring. Our results thus highlight an important and little-studied eco-evolutionary trade-off: density-dependent compensation has generally favorable ecological consequences (promoting stability and long-term viability) but incurs an evolutionary cost (reducing N(e) because a few individuals make a disproportionate genetic contribution). (4) For chinook salmon, N(eH) (an

  5. Population genetic structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population size of conserved and extensively raised village chicken populations of Southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Khanyile, Khulekani S; Dzomba, Edgar F; Muchadeyi, Farai C

    2015-01-01

    Extensively raised village chickens are considered a valuable source of biodiversity, with genetic variability developed over thousands of years that ought to be characterized and utilized. Surveys that can reveal a population's genetic structure and provide an insight into its demographic history will give valuable information that can be used to manage and conserve important indigenous animal genetic resources. This study reports population diversity and structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes of Southern African village chickens and conservation flocks from South Africa. DNA samples from 312 chickens from South African village and conservation flocks (n = 146), Malawi (n = 30) and Zimbabwe (n = 136) were genotyped using the Illumina iSelect chicken SNP60K BeadChip. Population genetic structure analysis distinguished the four conservation flocks from the village chicken populations. Of the four flocks, the Ovambo clustered closer to the village chickens particularly those sampled from South Africa. Clustering of the village chickens followed a geographic gradient whereby South African chickens were closer to those from Zimbabwe than to chickens from Malawi. Different conservation flocks seemed to have maintained different components of the ancestral genomes with a higher proportion of village chicken diversity found in the Ovambo population. Overall population LD averaged over chromosomes ranged from 0.03 ± 0.07 to 0.58 ± 0.41 and averaged 0.15 ± 0.16. Higher LD, ranging from 0.29 to 0.36, was observed between SNP markers that were less than 10 kb apart in the conservation flocks. LD in the conservation flocks steadily decreased to 0.15 (PK) and 0.24 (VD) at SNP marker interval of 500 kb. Genomewide LD decay in the village chickens from Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa followed a similar trend as the conservation flocks although the mean LD values for the investigated SNP intervals were lower. The results suggest low effective

  6. Population genetic structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population size of conserved and extensively raised village chicken populations of Southern Africa

    PubMed Central

    Khanyile, Khulekani S.; Dzomba, Edgar F.; Muchadeyi, Farai C.

    2015-01-01

    Extensively raised village chickens are considered a valuable source of biodiversity, with genetic variability developed over thousands of years that ought to be characterized and utilized. Surveys that can reveal a population's genetic structure and provide an insight into its demographic history will give valuable information that can be used to manage and conserve important indigenous animal genetic resources. This study reports population diversity and structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes of Southern African village chickens and conservation flocks from South Africa. DNA samples from 312 chickens from South African village and conservation flocks (n = 146), Malawi (n = 30) and Zimbabwe (n = 136) were genotyped using the Illumina iSelect chicken SNP60K BeadChip. Population genetic structure analysis distinguished the four conservation flocks from the village chicken populations. Of the four flocks, the Ovambo clustered closer to the village chickens particularly those sampled from South Africa. Clustering of the village chickens followed a geographic gradient whereby South African chickens were closer to those from Zimbabwe than to chickens from Malawi. Different conservation flocks seemed to have maintained different components of the ancestral genomes with a higher proportion of village chicken diversity found in the Ovambo population. Overall population LD averaged over chromosomes ranged from 0.03 ± 0.07 to 0.58 ± 0.41 and averaged 0.15 ± 0.16. Higher LD, ranging from 0.29 to 0.36, was observed between SNP markers that were less than 10 kb apart in the conservation flocks. LD in the conservation flocks steadily decreased to 0.15 (PK) and 0.24 (VD) at SNP marker interval of 500 kb. Genomewide LD decay in the village chickens from Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa followed a similar trend as the conservation flocks although the mean LD values for the investigated SNP intervals were lower. The results suggest low effective

  7. Effect of reference population size and available ancestor genotypes on imputation of Mexican Holstein genotypes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The effects of reference population size and the availability of information from genotyped ancestors on the accuracy of imputation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were investigated for Mexican Holstein cattle. Three scenarios for reference population size were examined: (1) a local popula...

  8. Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes.

    PubMed

    Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-08-01

    Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.

  9. Loss of microsatellite diversity and low effective population size in an overexploited population of New Zealand snapper (Pagrus auratus).

    PubMed

    Hauser, Lorenz; Adcock, Greg J; Smith, Peter J; Ramiréz, Julio H Bernal; Carvalho, Gary R

    2002-09-01

    Although the effects of overfishing on species diversity and abundance are well documented, threats to the genetic diversity of marine fish populations have so far been largely neglected. Indeed, there seems to be little cause for concern, as even "collapsed" stocks usually consist of several million individuals, whereas population genetics theory suggests that only very small populations suffer significant loss of genetic diversity. On the other hand, in many marine species the genetically effective population size (N(e)), which determines the genetic properties of a population, may be orders of magnitude smaller than the census population size (N). Here, microsatellite analyses of a time series of archived scales demonstrated a significant decline in genetic diversity in a New Zealand snapper population during its exploitation history. Effective population sizes estimated both from the decline in heterozygosity and from temporal fluctuations in allele frequency were five orders of magnitude smaller than census population sizes from fishery data. If such low N(e)/N ratios are commonplace in marine species, many exploited marine fish stocks may be in danger of losing genetic variability, potentially resulting in reduced adaptability, population persistence, and productivity.

  10. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

  11. Effective population size is positively correlated with levels of adaptive divergence among annual sunflowers.

    PubMed

    Strasburg, Jared L; Kane, Nolan C; Raduski, Andrew R; Bonin, Aurélie; Michelmore, Richard; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2011-05-01

    The role of adaptation in the divergence of lineages has long been a central question in evolutionary biology, and as multilocus sequence data sets have become available for a wide range of taxa, empirical estimates of levels of adaptive molecular evolution are increasingly common. Estimates vary widely among taxa, with high levels of adaptive evolution in Drosophila, bacteria, and viruses but very little evidence of widespread adaptive evolution in hominids. Although estimates in plants are more limited, some recent work has suggested that rates of adaptive evolution in a range of plant taxa are surprisingly low and that there is little association between adaptive evolution and effective population size in contrast to patterns seen in other taxa. Here, we analyze data from 35 loci for six sunflower species that vary dramatically in effective population size. We find that rates of adaptive evolution are positively correlated with effective population size in these species, with a significant fraction of amino acid substitutions driven by positive selection in the species with the largest effective population sizes but little or no evidence of adaptive evolution in species with smaller effective population sizes. Although other factors likely contribute as well, in sunflowers effective population size appears to be an important determinant of rates of adaptive evolution.

  12. Temporal Variation in Population Size of European Bird Species: Effects of Latitude and Marginality of Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Cuervo, José J.; Møller, Anders P.

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction. PMID:24147048

  13. Temporal variation in population size of European bird species: effects of latitude and marginality of distribution.

    PubMed

    Cuervo, José J; Møller, Anders P

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction.

  14. Effective Size and F-Statistics of Subdivided Populations. II. Dioecious Species

    PubMed Central

    Wang, J.

    1997-01-01

    For a dioecious diploid population subdivided into an arbitrary number of subpopulations, we have derived recurrence equations for the inbreeding coefficient and coancestries between individuals within and among subpopulations and formulas for effective size and F-statistics. Stable population size and structure, discrete generations, autosomal inheritance, and the island migration model are assumed, and arbitrary distributions of the numbers of male and female progeny per family, different numbers and variable migration rates of males and females are incorporated in our derivation. Some published equations for effective size and F-statistics for a subdivided population are shown to be incorrect because several incorrect probabilities are used in the derivation. A more general equation for effective size is obtained by finding eigenvalue solutions to the recurrence equations for inbreeding coefficient and coancestry in this article, which reduces to the simple and familiar expressions derived by previous authors for the special case of a single unsubdivided population. Our general expressions for F-statistics also reduce to the classical results of WRIGHT's infinite island model and its extensions. It is shown that population structure is important in determining effective size and F-statistics and should be recognized and incorporated into programs for genetic conservation and evolution. PMID:9258688

  15. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population.

    PubMed

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-10-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5-10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

  16. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population

    PubMed Central

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-01-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5–10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

  17. Intermittent breeding and constraints on litter size: consequences for effective population size per generation (Ne ) and per reproductive cycle (Nb ).

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Antao, Tiago

    2014-06-01

    In iteroparous species, it is easier to estimate Nb (effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle) than Ne (effective population size per generation). Nb can be used as a proxy for Ne and also can provide crucial insights into eco-evolutionary processes that occur during reproduction. We used analytical and numerical methods to evaluate effects of intermittent breeding and litter/clutch size on inbreeding Nb and Ne . Fixed or random litter sizes ≥ 3 have little effect on either effective-size parameter; however, in species (e.g., many large mammals) in which females can produce only one offspring per cycle, female Nb  = ∞ and overall Nb  = 4Nb (male) . Intermittent breeding reduces the pool of female breeders, which reduces both female and overall Nb ; reductions are larger in high-fecundity species with high juvenile mortality and increase when multiple reproductive cycles are skipped. Simulated data for six model species showed that both intermittent breeding and litter-size constraints increase Ne , but only slightly. We show how to quantitatively account for these effects, which are important to consider when (1) using Nb to estimate Ne , or (2) drawing inferences about male reproductive success based on estimates of female Nb . PMID:24611912

  18. Estimating variable effective population sizes from multiple genomes: a sequentially markov conditional sampling distribution approach.

    PubMed

    Sheehan, Sara; Harris, Kelley; Song, Yun S

    2013-07-01

    Throughout history, the population size of modern humans has varied considerably due to changes in environment, culture, and technology. More accurate estimates of population size changes, and when they occurred, should provide a clearer picture of human colonization history and help remove confounding effects from natural selection inference. Demography influences the pattern of genetic variation in a population, and thus genomic data of multiple individuals sampled from one or more present-day populations contain valuable information about the past demographic history. Recently, Li and Durbin developed a coalescent-based hidden Markov model, called the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC), for a pair of chromosomes (or one diploid individual) to estimate past population sizes. This is an efficient, useful approach, but its accuracy in the very recent past is hampered by the fact that, because of the small sample size, only few coalescence events occur in that period. Multiple genomes from the same population contain more information about the recent past, but are also more computationally challenging to study jointly in a coalescent framework. Here, we present a new coalescent-based method that can efficiently infer population size changes from multiple genomes, providing access to a new store of information about the recent past. Our work generalizes the recently developed sequentially Markov conditional sampling distribution framework, which provides an accurate approximation of the probability of observing a newly sampled haplotype given a set of previously sampled haplotypes. Simulation results demonstrate that we can accurately reconstruct the true population histories, with a significant improvement over the PSMC in the recent past. We apply our method, called diCal, to the genomes of multiple human individuals of European and African ancestry to obtain a detailed population size change history during recent times.

  19. Estimating Variable Effective Population Sizes from Multiple Genomes: A Sequentially Markov Conditional Sampling Distribution Approach

    PubMed Central

    Sheehan, Sara; Harris, Kelley; Song, Yun S.

    2013-01-01

    Throughout history, the population size of modern humans has varied considerably due to changes in environment, culture, and technology. More accurate estimates of population size changes, and when they occurred, should provide a clearer picture of human colonization history and help remove confounding effects from natural selection inference. Demography influences the pattern of genetic variation in a population, and thus genomic data of multiple individuals sampled from one or more present-day populations contain valuable information about the past demographic history. Recently, Li and Durbin developed a coalescent-based hidden Markov model, called the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC), for a pair of chromosomes (or one diploid individual) to estimate past population sizes. This is an efficient, useful approach, but its accuracy in the very recent past is hampered by the fact that, because of the small sample size, only few coalescence events occur in that period. Multiple genomes from the same population contain more information about the recent past, but are also more computationally challenging to study jointly in a coalescent framework. Here, we present a new coalescent-based method that can efficiently infer population size changes from multiple genomes, providing access to a new store of information about the recent past. Our work generalizes the recently developed sequentially Markov conditional sampling distribution framework, which provides an accurate approximation of the probability of observing a newly sampled haplotype given a set of previously sampled haplotypes. Simulation results demonstrate that we can accurately reconstruct the true population histories, with a significant improvement over the PSMC in the recent past. We apply our method, called diCal, to the genomes of multiple human individuals of European and African ancestry to obtain a detailed population size change history during recent times. PMID:23608192

  20. Characteristics of the variance effective population size over time using an age structured model with variable size.

    PubMed

    Olsson, Fredrik; Hössjer, Ola; Laikre, Linda; Ryman, Nils

    2013-12-01

    The variance effective population size (NeV) is a key concept in population biology, because it quantifies the microevolutionary process of random genetic drift, and understanding the characteristics of NeV is thus of central importance. Current formulas for NeV for populations with overlapping generations weight age classes according to their reproductive values (i.e. reflecting the contribution of genes from separate age classes to the population growth) to obtain a correct measure of genetic drift when computing the variance of the allele frequency change over time. In this paper, we examine the effect of applying different weights to the age classes using a novel analytical approach for exploring NeV. We consider a haploid organism with overlapping generations and populations of increasing, declining, or constant expected size and stochastic variation with respect to the number of individuals in the separate age classes. We define NeV, as a function of how the age classes are weighted, and of the span between the two points in time, when measuring allele frequency change. With this model, time profiles for NeV can be calculated for populations with various life histories and with fluctuations in life history composition, using different weighting schemes. We examine analytically and by simulations when NeV, using a weighting scheme with respect to reproductive contribution of separate age classes, accurately reflect the variance of the allele frequency change due to genetic drift over time. We show that the discrepancy of NeV, calculated with reproductive values as weights, compared to when individuals are weighted equally, tends to a constant when the time span between the two measurements increases. This constant is zero only for a population with a constant expected population size. Our results confirm that the effect of ignoring overlapping generations, when empirically assessing NeV from allele frequency shifts, gets smaller as the time interval between

  1. Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Ian J.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Bolker, Benjamin M.

    2008-01-01

    Background Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. Conclusions/Significance We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities. PMID:18769483

  2. cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

    PubMed

    Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

    2016-07-01

    Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. PMID:26858112

  3. Quantifying the Variation in the Effective Population Size Within a Genome

    PubMed Central

    Gossmann, Toni I.; Woolfit, Megan; Eyre-Walker, Adam

    2011-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is one of the most fundamental parameters in population genetics. It is thought to vary across the genome as a consequence of differences in the rate of recombination and the density of selected sites due to the processes of genetic hitchhiking and background selection. Although it is known that there is intragenomic variation in the effective population size in some species, it is not known whether this is widespread or how much variation in the effective population size there is. Here, we test whether the effective population size varies across the genome, between protein-coding genes, in 10 eukaryotic species by considering whether there is significant variation in neutral diversity, taking into account differences in the mutation rate between loci by using the divergence between species. In most species we find significant evidence of variation. We investigate whether the variation in Ne is correlated to recombination rate and the density of selected sites in four species, for which these data are available. We find that Ne is positively correlated to recombination rate in one species, Drosophila melanogaster, and negatively correlated to a measure of the density of selected sites in two others, humans and Arabidopsis thaliana. However, much of the variation remains unexplained. We use a hierarchical Bayesian analysis to quantify the amount of variation in the effective population size and show that it is quite modest in all species—most genes have an Ne that is within a few fold of all other genes. Nonetheless we show that this modest variation in Ne is sufficient to cause significant differences in the efficiency of natural selection across the genome, by demonstrating that the ratio of the number of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphisms is significantly correlated to synonymous diversity and estimates of Ne, even taking into account the obvious nonindependence between these measures. PMID:21954163

  4. Joint effects of population size and isolation on genetic erosion in fragmented populations: finding fragmentation thresholds for management

    PubMed Central

    Méndez, María; Vögeli, Matthias; Tella, José L; Godoy, José A

    2014-01-01

    Size and isolation of local populations are main parameters of interest when assessing the genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation. However, their relative influence on the genetic erosion of local populations remains unclear. In this study, we first analysed how size and isolation of habitat patches influence the genetic variation of local populations of the Dupont's lark (Chersophilus duponti), an endangered songbird. An information-theoretic approach to model selection allowed us to address the importance of interactions between habitat variables, an aspect seldom considered in fragmentation studies, but which explained up to 65% of the variance in genetic parameters. Genetic diversity and inbreeding were influenced by the size of local populations depending on their degree of isolation, and genetic differentiation was positively related to isolation. We then identified a minimum local population of 19 male territories and a maximum distance of 30 km to the nearest population as thresholds from which genetic erosion becomes apparent. Our results alert on possibly misleading conclusions and suboptimal management recommendations when only additive effects are taken into account and encourage the use of most explanatory but easy-to-measure variables for the evaluation of genetic risks in conservation programmes. PMID:24822084

  5. Historical Analysis of Genetic Variation Reveals Low Effective Population Size in a Northern Pike (Esox Lucius) Population

    PubMed Central

    Miller, L. M.; Kapuscinski, A. R.

    1997-01-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) of a natural fish population was estimated from temporal changes in allele frequencies at seven microsatellite loci. Use of a historical collection of fish scales made it possible to increase the precision of estimates by increasing the time interval between samples and to use an equation developed for discrete generations without correcting for demographic parameters. Estimates of N(e) for the time intervals 1961-1977 and 1977-1993 were 35 and 72, respectively. For the entire interval, 1961-1993, the estimate of N(e) was 48 when based on a weighted mean derived from the above two estimates or 125 when calculated from 1961 and 1993 samples only. Corresponding ratios of effective size to adult census size ranged from 0.03 to 0.14. An N(e) of 48 over a 32-year period would imply that this population lost as much as 8% of its heterozygosity in that time. Results suggest the potential for using genetic methods based on microsatellite loci data to compare historical trends in N(e) with population dynamic parameters. Such comparisons will help to evaluate the relationship between genetic diversity and long-term persistence of natural populations. PMID:9383067

  6. Effects of host-plant population size and plant sex on a specialist leaf-miner

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bañuelos, María-José; Kollmann, Johannes

    2011-03-01

    Animal population density has been related to resource patch size through various hypotheses such as those derived from island biogeography and resource concentration theory. This theoretical framework can be also applied to plant-herbivore interactions, and it can be modified by the sex of the host-plant, and density-dependent relationships. Leaf-miners are specialised herbivores that leave distinct traces on infested leaves in the form of egg scars, mines, signs of predation and emergence holes. This allows the life cycle of the insect to be reconstructed and the success at the different stages to be estimated. The main stages of the leaf-miner Phytomyza ilicis were recorded in eleven populations of the evergreen host Ilex aquifolium in Denmark. Survival rates were calculated and related to population size, sex of the host plant, and egg and mine densities. Host population size was negatively related to leaf-miner prevalence, with larger egg and mine densities in small populations. Percentage of eggs hatching and developing into mines, and percentage of adult flies emerging from mines also differed among host populations, but were not related to population size or host cover. Feeding punctures left by adults were marginally more frequent on male plants, whereas egg scars and mines were more common on females. Overall survival rate from egg stage to adult emergence was higher on female plants. Egg density was negatively correlated with hatching, while mine density was positively correlated with emergence of the larvae. The inverse effects of host population size were not in line with predictions based on island biogeography and resource concentration theory. We discuss how a thorough knowledge of the immigration behaviour of this fly might help to understand the patterns found.

  7. The influence of persistent individual differences and age at maturity on effective population size

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

    2011-01-01

    Ratios of effective populations size, Ne, to census population size, N, are used as a measure of genetic drift in populations. Several life-history parameters have been shown to affect these ratios, including mating system and age at sexual maturation. Using a stochastic matrix model, we examine how different levels of persistent individual differences in mating success among males may affect Ne/N, and how this relates to generation time. Individual differences of this type are shown to cause a lower Ne/N ratio than would be expected when mating is independent among seasons. Examining the way in which age at maturity affects Ne/N, we find that both the direction and magnitude of the effect depends on the survival rate of juveniles in the population. In particular, when maturation is delayed, lowered juvenile survival causes higher levels of genetic drift. In addition, predicted shifts in Ne/N with changing age at maturity are shown to be dependent on which of the commonly used definitions of census population size, N, is employed. Our results demonstrate that patterns of mating success, as well as juvenile survival probabilities, have substantial effects on rates of genetic drift. PMID:21436183

  8. Effects of Overlapping Generations on Linkage Disequilibrium Estimates of Effective Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Waples, Robin S.; Antao, Tiago; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Use of single-sample genetic methods to estimate effective population size has skyrocketed in recent years. Although the underlying models assume discrete generations, they are widely applied to age-structured species. We simulated genetic data for 21 iteroparous animal and plant species to evaluate two untested hypotheses regarding performance of the single-sample method based on linkage disequilibrium (LD): (1) estimates based on single-cohort samples reflect the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb), and (2) mixed-age samples reflect the effective size per generation (Ne). We calculated true Ne and Nb, using the model species’ vital rates, and verified these with individual-based simulations. We show that single-cohort samples should be equally influenced by Nb and Ne and confirm this with simulated results: N^b was a linear (r2 = 0.98) function of the harmonic mean of Ne and Nb. We provide a quantitative bias correction for raw N^b based on the ratio Nb/Ne, which can be estimated from two or three simple life history traits. Bias-adjusted estimates were within 5% of true Nb for all 21 study species and proved robust when challenged with new data. Mixed-age adult samples produced downwardly biased estimates in all species, which we attribute to a two-locus Wahlund effect (mixture LD) caused by combining parents from different cohorts in a single sample. Results from this study will facilitate interpretation of rapidly accumulating genetic estimates in terms of both Ne (which influences long-term evolutionary processes) and Nb (which is more important for understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics and mating systems). PMID:24717176

  9. The influence of male parr body size and mate competition on fertilization success and effective population size in Atlantic salmon.

    PubMed

    Jones, M W; Hutchings, J A

    2001-06-01

    Alternative mating strategies in male Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, are characterized by variability in body size and mate competition. Controlling breeding numbers of larger, older anadromous males, we examined whether body size of mature male parr influenced fertilization success and whether such an association was affected by mate competition among parr. Variation at three to four hypervariable microsatellite loci was used to determine individual paternity of 53-60 offspring from two or three nests from each experimental treatment. Although individual and total parr reproductive success differed significantly among nests within treatments, there was no relationship between parr size and individual reproductive success at any level of competition when anadromous males were involved. However, in a single treatment having no anadromous male, the influence of body size on parr fertilization success was highly significant. Combining data from all treatments, parr body size was an important predictor of the probability of an individual being involved in spawning. We found a negative relationship between total parr reproductive success and intensity of anadromous male competition. To our knowledge, the present study is the first to estimate the effective number of males from individual fertilization success in fish. Our estimates of Ne should not be taken as absolute and may have a downward bias because we did not sample all nests and we used a proxy for lifetime reproductive success. They do, however, illustrate how mature male parr can greatly increase the effective number of males when the latter is estimated from anadromous individuals alone. Although reproductive success by mature male parr increases the effective number of males, this increase seems likely to be most pronounced in natural populations when the number of anadromous males is low.

  10. Linkage Disequilibrium Estimation of Effective Population Size with Immigrants from Divergent Populations: A Case Study on Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson).

    PubMed

    Macbeth, Gilbert Michael; Broderick, Damien; Buckworth, Rik C; Ovenden, Jennifer R

    2013-03-11

    Estimates of genetic effective population size (Ne) using molecular markers are a potentially useful tool for the management of endangered through to commercial species. But, pitfalls are predicted when the effective size is large, as estimates require large numbers of samples from wild populations for statistical validity. Our simulations showed that linkage disequilibrium estimates of Ne up to 10,000 with finite confidence limits can be achieved with sample sizes around 5000. This was deduced from empirical allele frequencies of seven polymorphic microsatellite loci in a commercially harvested fisheries species, the narrow barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). As expected, the smallest standard deviation of Ne estimates occurred when low frequency alleles were excluded. Additional simulations indicated that the linkage disequilibrium method was sensitive to small numbers of genotypes from cryptic species or conspecific immigrants. A correspondence analysis algorithm was developed to detect and remove outlier genotypes that could possibly be inadvertently sampled from cryptic species or non-breeding immigrants from genetically separate populations. Simulations demonstrated the value of this approach in Spanish mackerel data. When putative immigrants were removed from the empirical data, 95% of the Ne estimates from jacknife resampling were above 24,000.

  11. Evaluating methods for estimating local effective population size with and without migration.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Kimberly J; Whitlock, Michael C

    2015-08-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, evolutionary biology, and conservation biology, yet its estimation can be fraught with difficulties. Several methods to estimate Ne from genetic data have been developed that take advantage of various approaches for inferring Ne . The ability of these methods to accurately estimate Ne , however, has not been comprehensively examined. In this study, we employ seven of the most cited methods for estimating Ne from genetic data (Colony2, CoNe, Estim, MLNe, ONeSAMP, TMVP, and NeEstimator including LDNe) across simulated datasets with populations experiencing migration or no migration. The simulated population demographies are an isolated population with no immigration, an island model metapopulation with a sink population receiving immigrants, and an isolation by distance stepping stone model of populations. We find considerable variance in performance of these methods, both within and across demographic scenarios, with some methods performing very poorly. The most accurate estimates of Ne can be obtained by using LDNe, MLNe, or TMVP; however each of these approaches is outperformed by another in a differing demographic scenario. Knowledge of the approximate demography of population as well as the availability of temporal data largely improves Ne estimates.

  12. Evaluating methods for estimating local effective population size with and without migration.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Kimberly J; Whitlock, Michael C

    2015-08-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, evolutionary biology, and conservation biology, yet its estimation can be fraught with difficulties. Several methods to estimate Ne from genetic data have been developed that take advantage of various approaches for inferring Ne . The ability of these methods to accurately estimate Ne , however, has not been comprehensively examined. In this study, we employ seven of the most cited methods for estimating Ne from genetic data (Colony2, CoNe, Estim, MLNe, ONeSAMP, TMVP, and NeEstimator including LDNe) across simulated datasets with populations experiencing migration or no migration. The simulated population demographies are an isolated population with no immigration, an island model metapopulation with a sink population receiving immigrants, and an isolation by distance stepping stone model of populations. We find considerable variance in performance of these methods, both within and across demographic scenarios, with some methods performing very poorly. The most accurate estimates of Ne can be obtained by using LDNe, MLNe, or TMVP; however each of these approaches is outperformed by another in a differing demographic scenario. Knowledge of the approximate demography of population as well as the availability of temporal data largely improves Ne estimates. PMID:26118738

  13. Description and validation of a method for simultaneous estimation of effective population size and mutation rate from human population data.

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, R; Neel, J V

    1989-01-01

    A method is presented for utilizing population data on electrophoretic variants of proteins to estimate simultaneously the effective sizes (Ne values) of the populations in question and the rate of mutation resulting in electromorphs at the loci whose products were surveyed. The method is applied to data from 12 relatively unacculturated Amerindian tribes for whom census data and independent estimates of the number of different electrophoretic variants at 27 loci are available. Because of tribal demographic structure, Ne should be less than the current number of reproductive-aged adults. In fact, it is substantially greater for 7 tribes, most likely due to intertribal migration and a recent decrease in tribal size. Estimates of locus mutation rates for the 27 loci vary by more than a factor of 20, with an average of 1.1 x 10(-5) per locus per generation. This latter estimate is in satisfactory agreement with the results of other indirect approaches to the estimation of mutation rates in these tribes but about two times higher than the results of direct estimates based on these same loci in studies on civilized populations. This discrepancy could be due to the above-hypothesized migration and to decreases in tribal size. PMID:2594777

  14. Low effective population size and evidence for inbreeding in an overexploited flatfish, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.)

    PubMed Central

    Hoarau, Galice; Boon, Eva; Jongma, Dorris N; Ferber, Steven; Palsson, Jonbjorn; Van der Veer, Henk W; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D; Stam, Wytze T; Olsen, Jeanine L

    2005-01-01

    Overexploitation and subsequent collapse of major worldwide fisheries has made it clear that marine stocks are not inexhaustible. Unfortunately, the perception remains that marine fishes are resilient to large population reductions, as even a commercially ‘collapsed’ stock will still consist of millions of individuals. Coupled with this notion is the idea that fisheries can, therefore, have little effect on the genetic diversity of stocks. We used DNA from archived otoliths collected between 1924 and 1972 together with 2002 juvenile's tissue to estimate effective population size (Ne) in plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). Ne was estimated at 20 000 in the North Sea and 2000 in Iceland. These values are five orders of magnitude smaller than the estimated census size for the two locations. Populations examined between 1924 and 1960 were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, whereas populations examined after approximately 1970 were not. Extensive testing was performed to rule out genotyping artefacts and Wahlund effects. The significant heterozygote deficiencies found from 1970 onward were attributed to inbreeding. The emergence of inbreeding between 1950 and 1970 coincides with the increase in fishing mortality after World War II. Although the biological mechanisms remain speculative, our demonstration of inbreeding signals the need for understanding the social and mating behaviour in commercially important fishes. PMID:15799945

  15. Short-Term Genetic Changes: Evaluating Effective Population Size Estimates in a Comprehensively Described Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) Population

    PubMed Central

    Serbezov, Dimitar; Jorde, Per Erik; Bernatchez, Louis; Olsen, Esben Moland; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

    2012-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate in wild populations as it is influenced by a number of parameters that are difficult to delineate in natural systems. The different methods that are used to estimate Ne are affected variously by different processes at the population level, such as the life-history characteristics of the organism, gene flow, and population substructure, as well as by the frequency patterns of genetic markers used and the sampling design. Here, we compare Ne estimates obtained by different genetic methods and from demographic data and elucidate how the estimates are affected by various factors in an exhaustively sampled and comprehensively described natural brown trout (Salmo trutta) system. In general, the methods yielded rather congruent estimates, and we ascribe that to the adequate genotyping and exhaustive sampling. Effects of violating the assumptions of the different methods were nevertheless apparent. In accordance with theoretical studies, skewed allele frequencies would underestimate temporal allele frequency changes and thereby upwardly bias Ne if not accounted for. Overlapping generations and iteroparity would also upwardly bias Ne when applied to temporal samples taken over short time spans. Gene flow from a genetically not very dissimilar source population decreases temporal allele frequency changes and thereby acts to increase estimates of Ne. Our study reiterates the importance of adequate sampling, quantification of life-history parameters and gene flow, and incorporating these data into the Ne estimation. PMID:22466040

  16. The evolution of harm--effect of sexual conflicts and population size.

    PubMed

    Gay, Laurène; Hosken, David J; Eady, Paul; Vasudev, Ram; Tregenza, Tom

    2011-03-01

    Conflicts of interest between mates can promote the evolution of male traits that reduce female fitness and that drive coevolution between the sexes. The rate of adaptation depends on the intensity of selection and its efficiency, which depends on drift and genetic variability. This leads to the largely untested prediction that coevolutionary adaptations such as those driven by sexual conflict should evolve faster in large populations. We tested this using the bruchid beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, a species where harm inflicted by males is well documented. Although most experimental evolution studies remove sexual conflict, we reintroduced it in populations in which it had been experimentally removed. Both population size and standing genetic variability were manipulated in a factorial experimental design. After 90 generations of relaxed conflict (monogamy), the reintroduction of sexual conflicts for 30 generations favored males that harmed females and females that were more resistant to the genital damage inflicted by males. Males evolved to become more harmful when population size was large rather than when initial genetic variation was enriched. Our study shows that sexual selection can create conditions in which males can benefit from harming females and that selection may tend to be more intense and effective in larger populations.

  17. Extent of Linkage Disequilibrium and Effective Population Size in Four South African Sanga Cattle Breeds

    PubMed Central

    Makina, Sithembile O.; Taylor, Jeremy F.; van Marle-Köster, Este; Muchadeyi, Farai C.; Makgahlela, Mahlako L.; MacNeil, Michael D.; Maiwashe, Azwihangwisi

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge on the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in livestock populations is essential to determine the minimum distance between markers required for effective coverage when conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This study evaluated the extent of LD, persistence of allelic phase and effective population size (Ne) for four Sanga cattle breeds in South Africa including the Afrikaner (n = 44), Nguni (n = 54), Drakensberger (n = 47), and Bonsmara breeds (n = 46), using Angus (n = 31) and Holstein (n = 29) as reference populations. We found that moderate LD extends up to inter-marker distances of 40–60 kb in Angus (0.21) and Holstein (0.21) and up to 100 kb in Afrikaner (0.20). This suggests that genomic selection and association studies performed within these breeds using an average inter-marker r2≥ 0.20 would require about 30,000–50,000 SNPs. However, r2≥ 0.20 extended only up to 10–20 kb in the Nguni and Drakensberger and 20–40 kb in the Bonsmara indicating that 75,000 to 150,000 SNPs would be necessary for GWAS in these breeds. Correlation between alleles at contiguous loci indicated that phase was not strongly preserved between breeds. This suggests the need for breed-specific reference populations in which a much greater density of markers should be scored to identify breed specific haplotypes which may then be imputed into multi-breed commercial populations. Analysis of effective population size based on the extent of LD, revealed Ne = 95 (Nguni), Ne = 87 (Drakensberger), Ne = 77 (Bonsmara), and Ne = 41 (Afrikaner). Results of this study form the basis for implementation of genomic selection programs in the Sanga breeds of South Africa. PMID:26648975

  18. Genetic effective size of a wild primate population: influence of current and historical demography.

    PubMed

    Storz, Jay F; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Alberts, Susan C

    2002-04-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the determinants of effective population size (N(e)) requires estimates of variance in lifetime reproductive success and past changes in census numbers. For natural populations, such information can be best obtained by combining longitudinal data on individual life histories and genetic marker-based inferences of demographic history. Independent estimates of the variance effective size (N(ev), obtained from life-history data) and the inbreeding effective size (N((eI), obtained from genetic data) provide a means of disentangling the effects of current and historical demography. The purpose of this study was to assess the demographic determinants of N(e) in one of the most intensively studied natural populations of a vertebrate species: the population of savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) in the Amboseli Basin, southern Kenya. We tested the hypotheses that N(eV) < N < N(eI) (where N = population census number) due to a recent demographic bottleneck. N(eV) was estimated using a stochastic demographic model based on detailed life-history data spanning a 28-year period. Using empirical estimates of age-specific rates of survival and fertility for both sexes, individual-based simulations were used to estimate the variance in lifetime reproductive success. The resultant values translated into an N(eV)/N estimate of 0.329 (SD = 0.116, 95% CI = 0.172-0.537). Historical N(eI), was estimated from 14-locus microsatellite genotypes using a coalescent-based simulation model. Estimates of N(eI) were 2.2 to 7.2 times higher than the contemporary census number of the Amboseli baboon population. In addition to the effects of immigration, the disparity between historical N(eI) and contemporary N is likely attributable to the time lag between the recent drop in census numbers and the rate of increase in the average probability of allelic identity-by-descent. Thus, observed levels of genetic diversity may primarily reflect the population's prebottleneck

  19. Preferred habitat and effective population size drive landscape genetic patterns in an endangered species

    PubMed Central

    Weckworth, Byron V.; Musiani, Marco; DeCesare, Nicholas J.; McDevitt, Allan D.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Mariani, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    Landscape genetics provides a framework for pinpointing environmental features that determine the important exchange of migrants among populations. These studies usually test the significance of environmental variables on gene flow, yet ignore one fundamental driver of genetic variation in small populations, effective population size, Ne. We combined both approaches in evaluating genetic connectivity of a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou. We used least-cost paths to calculate matrices of resistance distance for landscape variables (preferred habitat, anthropogenic features and predation risk) and population-pairwise harmonic means of Ne, and correlated them with genetic distances, FST and Dc. Results showed that spatial configuration of preferred habitat and Ne were the two best predictors of genetic relationships. Additionally, controlling for the effect of Ne increased the strength of correlations of environmental variables with genetic distance, highlighting the significant underlying effect of Ne in modulating genetic drift and perceived spatial connectivity. We therefore have provided empirical support to emphasize preventing increased habitat loss and promoting population growth to ensure metapopulation viability. PMID:24004939

  20. Effective size of a wild salmonid population is greatly reduced by hatchery supplementation.

    PubMed

    Christie, M R; Marine, M L; French, R A; Waples, R S; Blouin, M S

    2012-10-01

    Many declining and commercially important populations are supplemented with captive-born individuals that are intentionally released into the wild. These supplementation programs often create large numbers of offspring from relatively few breeding adults, which can have substantial population-level effects. We examined the genetic effects of supplementation on a wild population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Hood River, Oregon, by matching 12 run-years of hatchery steelhead back to their broodstock parents. We show that the effective number of breeders producing the hatchery fish (broodstock parents; N(b)) was quite small (harmonic mean N(b)=25 fish per brood-year vs 373 for wild fish), and was exacerbated by a high variance in broodstock reproductive success among individuals within years. The low N(b) caused hatchery fish to have decreased allelic richness, increased average relatedness, more loci in linkage disequilibrium and substantial levels of genetic drift in comparison with their wild-born counterparts. We also documented a substantial Ryman-Laikre effect whereby the additional hatchery fish doubled the total number of adult fish on the spawning grounds each year, but cut the effective population size of the total population (wild and hatchery fish combined) by nearly two-thirds. We further demonstrate that the Ryman-Laikre effect is most severe in this population when (1) >10% of fish allowed onto spawning grounds are from hatcheries and (2) the hatchery fish have high reproductive success in the wild. These results emphasize the trade-offs that arise when supplementation programs attempt to balance disparate goals (increasing production while maintaining genetic diversity and fitness).

  1. Ribosomal RNA gene diversity, effective population size, and evolutionary longevity in asexual glomeromycota.

    PubMed

    Vankuren, Nicholas W; den Bakker, Henk C; Morton, Joseph B; Pawlowska, Teresa E

    2013-01-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (phylum Glomeromycota) are among the oldest and most successful symbionts of land plants. With no evidence of sexual reproduction, their evolutionary success is inconsistent with the prediction that asexual taxa are vulnerable to extinction due to accumulation of deleterious mutations. To explore why Glomeromycota defy this prediction, we studied ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene evolution in the Claroideoglomus lineage and estimated effective population size, N(e) , in C. etunicatum. We found that rRNA genes of these fungi exhibit unusual and complex patterns of molecular evolution. In C. etunicatum, these patterns can be collectively explained by an unexpectedly large N(e) combined with imperfect genome-wide and population-level rRNA gene repeat homogenization. The mutations accumulated in rRNA gene sequences indicate that natural selection is effective at purging deleterious mutations in the Claroideoglomus lineage, which is also consistent with the large N(e) of C. etunicatum. We propose that in the near absence of recombination, asexual reproduction involving massively multinucleate spores typical for Glomeromycota is responsible for the improved efficacy of selection relative to drift. We postulate that large effective population sizes contribute to the evolutionary longevity of Glomeromycota.

  2. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    PubMed

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C; Gilchrist, A Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-1)2, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1) for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  3. Estimating Effective Population Size from Linkage Disequilibrium between Unlinked Loci: Theory and Application to Fruit Fly Outbreak Populations

    PubMed Central

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C.; Gilchrist, A. Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The ‘Burrows composite index’ is introduced in a novel way with a ‘composite haplotype table’. We show that in a sample of diploid size , the mean value of or from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of , rather than the usual factor for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to , and find that this factor leads to a bias in the estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered with lower variance than the original , and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown. PMID:23894410

  4. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Reeta; Arora, Natasha; Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W; Van Schaik, Carel P; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  5. Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

    PubMed Central

    Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  6. Mortality during epizootics in bighorn sheep: effects of initial population size and cause.

    PubMed

    Cassaigne G, Ivonne; Medellín, Rodrigo A; Guasco O, José A

    2010-07-01

    One of the most severe threats to bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) populations is disease. With the objective of projecting possible epizootic consequences to bighorn sheep population dynamics, we examined 23 epizootic mortality episodes from presumably known causes that occurred in the United States and Canada from 1942 to 2005. These outbreaks were correlated with population size using regression models. Epizootic origins were documented by considering contact with a "new" pathogen for the bighorn sheep population or pneumonic processes, presumably triggered by stress. We suggest mortality rates are negatively related to population size in a logarithmic function, and offer a model to estimate the percentage of disease-related mortalities for a given population size of bighorn sheep. From a disease dynamics perspective, we suggest a minimum population of 188 bighorn sheep would be required to insure long-term persistence in the presence of epizootic disease.

  7. Single-gene speciation with pleiotropy: effects of allele dominance, population size, and delayed inheritance.

    PubMed

    Yamamichi, Masato; Sasaki, Akira

    2013-07-01

    Single-gene speciation is considered to be unlikely, but an excellent example is found in land snails, in which a gene for left-right reversal has given rise to new species multiple times. This reversal might be facilitated by their small population sizes and maternal effect (i.e., "delayed inheritance," in which an individual's phenotype is determined by the genotype of its mother). Recent evidence suggests that a pleiotropic effect of the speciation gene on antipredator survival may also promote speciation. Here we theoretically demonstrate that, without a pleiotropic effect, in small populations the fixation probability of a recessive mutant is higher than a dominant mutant, but they are identical for large populations and sufficiently weak selection. With a pleiotropic effect that increases mutant viability, a dominant mutant has a higher fixation probability if the strength of viability selection is sufficiently greater than that of reproductive incompatibility, whereas a recessive mutant has a higher fixation probability otherwise. Delayed inheritance increases the fixation probability of a mutant if viability selection is sufficiently weaker than reproductive incompatibility. Our results clarify the conflicting effects of viability selection and positive frequency-dependent selection due to reproductive incompatibility and provide a new perspective to single-gene speciation theory. PMID:23815656

  8. Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

    2009-01-01

    Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often 50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.

  9. Adaptive Protein Evolution in Animals and the Effective Population Size Hypothesis.

    PubMed

    Galtier, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    The rate at which genomes adapt to environmental changes and the prevalence of adaptive processes in molecular evolution are two controversial issues in current evolutionary genetics. Previous attempts to quantify the genome-wide rate of adaptation through amino-acid substitution have revealed a surprising diversity of patterns, with some species (e.g. Drosophila) experiencing a very high adaptive rate, while other (e.g. humans) are dominated by nearly-neutral processes. It has been suggested that this discrepancy reflects between-species differences in effective population size. Published studies, however, were mainly focused on model organisms, and relied on disparate data sets and methodologies, so that an overview of the prevalence of adaptive protein evolution in nature is currently lacking. Here we extend existing estimators of the amino-acid adaptive rate by explicitly modelling the effect of favourable mutations on non-synonymous polymorphism patterns, and we apply these methods to a newly-built, homogeneous data set of 44 non-model animal species pairs. Data analysis uncovers a major contribution of adaptive evolution to the amino-acid substitution process across all major metazoan phyla-with the notable exception of humans and primates. The proportion of adaptive amino-acid substitution is found to be positively correlated to species effective population size. This relationship, however, appears to be primarily driven by a decreased rate of nearly-neutral amino-acid substitution because of more efficient purifying selection in large populations. Our results reveal that adaptive processes dominate the evolution of proteins in most animal species, but do not corroborate the hypothesis that adaptive substitutions accumulate at a faster rate in large populations. Implications regarding the factors influencing the rate of adaptive evolution and positive selection detection in humans vs. other organisms are discussed. PMID:26752180

  10. Adaptive Protein Evolution in Animals and the Effective Population Size Hypothesis

    PubMed Central

    Galtier, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    The rate at which genomes adapt to environmental changes and the prevalence of adaptive processes in molecular evolution are two controversial issues in current evolutionary genetics. Previous attempts to quantify the genome-wide rate of adaptation through amino-acid substitution have revealed a surprising diversity of patterns, with some species (e.g. Drosophila) experiencing a very high adaptive rate, while other (e.g. humans) are dominated by nearly-neutral processes. It has been suggested that this discrepancy reflects between-species differences in effective population size. Published studies, however, were mainly focused on model organisms, and relied on disparate data sets and methodologies, so that an overview of the prevalence of adaptive protein evolution in nature is currently lacking. Here we extend existing estimators of the amino-acid adaptive rate by explicitly modelling the effect of favourable mutations on non-synonymous polymorphism patterns, and we apply these methods to a newly-built, homogeneous data set of 44 non-model animal species pairs. Data analysis uncovers a major contribution of adaptive evolution to the amino-acid substitution process across all major metazoan phyla—with the notable exception of humans and primates. The proportion of adaptive amino-acid substitution is found to be positively correlated to species effective population size. This relationship, however, appears to be primarily driven by a decreased rate of nearly-neutral amino-acid substitution because of more efficient purifying selection in large populations. Our results reveal that adaptive processes dominate the evolution of proteins in most animal species, but do not corroborate the hypothesis that adaptive substitutions accumulate at a faster rate in large populations. Implications regarding the factors influencing the rate of adaptive evolution and positive selection detection in humans vs. other organisms are discussed. PMID:26752180

  11. Effect of population size on the estimation of QTL: a test using resistance to barley stripe rust.

    PubMed

    Vales, M I; Schön, C C; Capettini, F; Chen, X M; Corey, A E; Mather, D E; Mundt, C C; Richardson, K L; Sandoval-Islas, J S; Utz, H F; Hayes, P M

    2005-11-01

    The limited population sizes used in many quantitative trait locus (QTL) detection experiments can lead to underestimation of QTL number, overestimation of QTL effects, and failure to quantify QTL interactions. We used the barley/barley stripe rust pathosystem to evaluate the effect of population size on the estimation of QTL parameters. We generated a large (n = 409) population of doubled haploid lines derived from the cross of two inbred lines, BCD47 and Baronesse. This population was evaluated for barley stripe rust severity in the Toluca Valley, Mexico, and in Washington State, USA, under field conditions. BCD47 was the principal donor of resistance QTL alleles, but the susceptible parent also contributed some resistance alleles. The major QTL, located on the long arm of chromosome 4H, close to the Mlo gene, accounted for up to 34% of the phenotypic variance. Subpopulations of different sizes were generated using three methods-resampling, selective genotyping, and selective phenotyping-to evaluate the effect of population size on the estimation of QTL parameters. In all cases, the number of QTL detected increased with population size. QTL with large effects were detected even in small populations, but QTL with small effects were detected only by increasing population size. Selective genotyping and/or selective phenotyping approaches could be effective strategies for reducing the costs associated with conducting QTL analysis in large populations. The method of choice will depend on the relative costs of genotyping versus phenotyping.

  12. Effective population size, extended linkage disequilibrium and signatures of selection in the rare dog breed lundehund.

    PubMed

    Pfahler, Sophia; Distl, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    The Lundehund is an old dog breed with remarkable anatomical features including polydactyly in all four limbs and extraordinary flexibility of the spine. We genotyped 28 Lundehund using the canine Illumina high density beadchip to estimate the effective population size (Ne) and inbreeding coefficients as well as to identify potential regions of positive selection. The decay of linkage disequilibrium was slow with r2 = 0.95 in 50 kb distance. The last 7-200 generations ago, Ne was at 10-13. An increase of Ne was noted in the very recent generations with a peak value of 19 for Ne at generation 4. The FROH estimated for 50-, 65- and 358-SNP windows were 0.87, 087 and 0.81, respectively. The most likely estimates for FROH after removing identical-by-state segments due to linkage disequilibria were at 0.80-0.81. The extreme loss of heterozygosity has been accumulated through continued inbreeding over 200 generations within a probably closed population with a small effective population size. The mean inbreeding coefficient based on pedigree data for the last 11 generations (FPed = 0.10) was strongly biased downwards due to the unknown coancestry of the founders in this pedigree data. The long-range haplotype test identified regions with genes involved in processes of immunity, olfaction, woundhealing and neuronal development as potential targets of selection. The genes QSOX2, BMPR1B and PRRX2 as well as MYOM1 are candidates for selection on the Lundehund characteristics small body size, increased number of digits per paw and extraordinary mobility, respectively.

  13. Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

    2015-08-01

    Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

  14. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    PubMed

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio. PMID:26014526

  15. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Cornman, Robert S.; Kenneth L. Jones,; Fike, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The πZ/πA ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that NeZ/NeA in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  16. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    PubMed

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  17. Effective size and polymorphism of linked neutral loci in populations under directional selection.

    PubMed Central

    Santiago, E; Caballero, A

    1998-01-01

    The general theory of the effective size (Ne) for populations under directional selection is extended to cover linkage. Ne is a function of the association between neutral and selected genes generated by finite sampling. This association is reduced by three factors: the recombination rate, the reduction of genetic variance due to drift, and the reduction of genetic variance of the selected genes due to selection. If the genetic size of the genome (L in Morgans) is not extremely small the equation for Ne is [formula, see text] where N is the number of reproductive individuals, C 2 is the genetic variance for fitness scaled by the squared mean fitness, (1 - Z) = Vm/C2 is the rate of reduction of genetic variation per generation and Vm is the mutational input of genetic variation for fitness. The above predictive equation of Ne is valid for the infinitesimal model and for a model of detrimental mutations. The principles of the theory are also applicable to favorable mutation models if there is a continuous flux of advantageous mutations. The predictions are tested by simulation, and the connection with previous results is found and discussed. The reduction of effective size associated with a neutral mutation is progressive over generations until the asymptotic value (the above expression) is reached after a number of generations. The magnitude of the drift process is, therefore, smaller for recent neutral mutations than for old ones. This produces equilibrium values of average heterozygosity and proportion of segregating sites that cannot be formally predicted from the asymptotic Ne, but both parameters can still be predicted by following the drift along the lineage of genes. The spectrum of gene frequencies in a given generation can also be predicted by considering the overlapping of distributions corresponding to mutations that arose in different generations and with different associated effective sizes. PMID:9691062

  18. Quasi equilibrium, variance effective size and fixation index for populations with substructure.

    PubMed

    Hössjer, Ola; Ryman, Nils

    2014-11-01

    In this paper, we develop a method for computing the variance effective size N eV, the fixation index F ST and the coefficient of gene differentiation G ST of a structured population under equilibrium conditions. The subpopulation sizes are constant in time, with migration and reproduction schemes that can be chosen with great flexibility. Our quasi equilibrium approach is conditional on non-fixation of alleles. This is of relevance when migration rates are of a larger order of magnitude than the mutation rates, so that new mutations can be ignored before equilibrium balance between genetic drift and migration is obtained. The vector valued time series of subpopulation allele frequencies is divided into two parts; one corresponding to genetic drift of the whole population and one corresponding to differences in allele frequencies among subpopulations. We give conditions under which the first two moments of the latter, after a simple standardization, are well approximated by quantities that can be explicitly calculated. This enables us to compute approximations of the quasi equilibrium values of N eV, F ST and G ST. Our findings are illustrated for several reproduction and migration scenarios, including the island model, stepping stone models and a model where one subpopulation acts as a demographic reservoir. We also make detailed comparisons with a backward approach based on coalescence probabilities.

  19. Simple life-history traits explain key effective population size ratios across diverse taxa

    PubMed Central

    Waples, Robin S.; Luikart, Gordon; Faulkner, James R.; Tallmon, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) controls both the rate of random genetic drift and the effectiveness of selection and migration, but it is difficult to estimate in nature. In particular, for species with overlapping generations, it is easier to estimate the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb) than Ne per generation. We empirically evaluated the relationship between life history and ratios of Ne, Nb and adult census size (N) using a recently developed model (agene) and published vital rates for 63 iteroparous animals and plants. Nb/Ne varied a surprising sixfold across species and, contrary to expectations, Nb was larger than Ne in over half the species. Up to two-thirds of the variance in Nb/Ne and up to half the variance in Ne/N was explained by just two life-history traits (age at maturity and adult lifespan) that have long interested both ecologists and evolutionary biologists. These results provide novel insights into, and demonstrate a close general linkage between, demographic and evolutionary processes across diverse taxa. For the first time, our results also make it possible to interpret rapidly accumulating estimates of Nb in the context of the rich body of evolutionary theory based on Ne per generation. PMID:23926150

  20. Samples from subdivided populations yield biased estimates of effective size that overestimate the rate of loss of genetic variation

    PubMed Central

    Ryman, Nils; Allendorf, Fred W; Jorde, Per Erik; Laikre, Linda; Hössjer, Ola

    2014-01-01

    Many empirical studies estimating effective population size apply the temporal method that provides an estimate of the variance effective size through the amount of temporal allele frequency change under the assumption that the study population is completely isolated. This assumption is frequently violated, and the magnitude of the resulting bias is generally unknown. We studied how gene flow affects estimates of effective size obtained by the temporal method when sampling from a population system and provide analytical expressions for the expected estimate under an island model of migration. We show that the temporal method tends to systematically underestimate both local and global effective size when populations are connected by gene flow, and the bias is sometimes dramatic. The problem is particularly likely to occur when sampling from a subdivided population where high levels of gene flow obscure identification of subpopulation boundaries. In such situations, sampling in a manner that prevents biased estimates can be difficult. This phenomenon might partially explain the frequently reported unexpectedly low effective population sizes of marine populations that have raised concern regarding the genetic vulnerability of even exceptionally large populations. PMID:24034449

  1. Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size.

    PubMed

    Jones, A T; Ovenden, J R; Wang, Y-G

    2016-10-01

    The linkage disequilibrium method is currently the most widely used single sample estimator of genetic effective population size. The commonly used software packages come with two options, referred to as the parametric and jackknife methods, for computing the associated confidence intervals. However, little is known on the coverage performance of these methods, and the published data suggest there may be some room for improvement. Here, we propose two new methods for generating confidence intervals and compare them with the two in current use through a simulation study. The new confidence interval methods tend to be conservative but outperform the existing methods for generating confidence intervals under certain circumstances, such as those that may be encountered when making estimates using large numbers of single-nucleotide polymorphisms.

  2. Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size.

    PubMed

    Jones, A T; Ovenden, J R; Wang, Y-G

    2016-10-01

    The linkage disequilibrium method is currently the most widely used single sample estimator of genetic effective population size. The commonly used software packages come with two options, referred to as the parametric and jackknife methods, for computing the associated confidence intervals. However, little is known on the coverage performance of these methods, and the published data suggest there may be some room for improvement. Here, we propose two new methods for generating confidence intervals and compare them with the two in current use through a simulation study. The new confidence interval methods tend to be conservative but outperform the existing methods for generating confidence intervals under certain circumstances, such as those that may be encountered when making estimates using large numbers of single-nucleotide polymorphisms. PMID:27005004

  3. A comparison of single-sample estimators of effective population sizes from genetic marker data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jinliang

    2016-10-01

    In molecular ecology and conservation genetics studies, the important parameter of effective population size (Ne ) is increasingly estimated from a single sample of individuals taken at random from a population and genotyped at a number of marker loci. Several estimators are developed, based on the information of linkage disequilibrium (LD), heterozygote excess (HE), molecular coancestry (MC) and sibship frequency (SF) in marker data. The most popular is the LD estimator, because it is more accurate than HE and MC estimators and is simpler to calculate than SF estimator. However, little is known about the accuracy of LD estimator relative to that of SF and about the robustness of all single-sample estimators when some simplifying assumptions (e.g. random mating, no linkage, no genotyping errors) are violated. This study fills the gaps and uses extensive simulations to compare the biases and accuracies of the four estimators for different population properties (e.g. bottlenecks, nonrandom mating, haplodiploid), marker properties (e.g. linkage, polymorphisms) and sample properties (e.g. numbers of individuals and markers) and to compare the robustness of the four estimators when marker data are imperfect (with allelic dropouts). Extensive simulations show that SF estimator is more accurate, has a much wider application scope (e.g. suitable to nonrandom mating such as selfing, haplodiploid species, dominant markers) and is more robust (e.g. to the presence of linkage and genotyping errors of markers) than the other estimators. An empirical data set from a Yellowstone grizzly bear population was analysed to demonstrate the use of the SF estimator in practice.

  4. A comparison of single-sample estimators of effective population sizes from genetic marker data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jinliang

    2016-10-01

    In molecular ecology and conservation genetics studies, the important parameter of effective population size (Ne ) is increasingly estimated from a single sample of individuals taken at random from a population and genotyped at a number of marker loci. Several estimators are developed, based on the information of linkage disequilibrium (LD), heterozygote excess (HE), molecular coancestry (MC) and sibship frequency (SF) in marker data. The most popular is the LD estimator, because it is more accurate than HE and MC estimators and is simpler to calculate than SF estimator. However, little is known about the accuracy of LD estimator relative to that of SF and about the robustness of all single-sample estimators when some simplifying assumptions (e.g. random mating, no linkage, no genotyping errors) are violated. This study fills the gaps and uses extensive simulations to compare the biases and accuracies of the four estimators for different population properties (e.g. bottlenecks, nonrandom mating, haplodiploid), marker properties (e.g. linkage, polymorphisms) and sample properties (e.g. numbers of individuals and markers) and to compare the robustness of the four estimators when marker data are imperfect (with allelic dropouts). Extensive simulations show that SF estimator is more accurate, has a much wider application scope (e.g. suitable to nonrandom mating such as selfing, haplodiploid species, dominant markers) and is more robust (e.g. to the presence of linkage and genotyping errors of markers) than the other estimators. An empirical data set from a Yellowstone grizzly bear population was analysed to demonstrate the use of the SF estimator in practice. PMID:27288989

  5. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  6. Temporal sampling helps unravel the genetic structure of naturally occurring populations of a phytoparasitic nematode. 1. Insights from the estimation of effective population sizes.

    PubMed

    Jan, Pierre-Loup; Gracianne, Cécile; Fournet, Sylvain; Olivier, Eric; Arnaud, Jean-François; Porte, Catherine; Bardou-Valette, Sylvie; Denis, Marie-Christine; Petit, Eric J

    2016-03-01

    The sustainability of modern agriculture relies on strategies that can control the ability of pathogens to overcome chemicals or genetic resistances through natural selection. This evolutionary potential, which depends partly on effective population size (N e ), is greatly influenced by human activities. In this context, wild pathogen populations can provide valuable information for assessing the long-term risk associated with crop pests. In this study, we estimated the effective population size of the beet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, by sampling 34 populations infecting the sea beet Beta vulgaris spp. maritima twice within a one-year period. Only 20 populations produced enough generations to analyze the variation in allele frequencies, with the remaining populations showing a high mortality rate of the host plant after only 1 year. The 20 analyzed populations showed surprisingly low effective population sizes, with most having N e close to 85 individuals. We attribute these low values to the variation in population size through time, systematic inbreeding, and unbalanced sex-ratios. Our results suggest that H. schachtii has low evolutionary potential in natural environments. Pest control strategies in which populations on crops mimic wild populations may help prevent parasite adaptation to host resistance.

  7. Temporal sampling helps unravel the genetic structure of naturally occurring populations of a phytoparasitic nematode. 1. Insights from the estimation of effective population sizes.

    PubMed

    Jan, Pierre-Loup; Gracianne, Cécile; Fournet, Sylvain; Olivier, Eric; Arnaud, Jean-François; Porte, Catherine; Bardou-Valette, Sylvie; Denis, Marie-Christine; Petit, Eric J

    2016-03-01

    The sustainability of modern agriculture relies on strategies that can control the ability of pathogens to overcome chemicals or genetic resistances through natural selection. This evolutionary potential, which depends partly on effective population size (N e ), is greatly influenced by human activities. In this context, wild pathogen populations can provide valuable information for assessing the long-term risk associated with crop pests. In this study, we estimated the effective population size of the beet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, by sampling 34 populations infecting the sea beet Beta vulgaris spp. maritima twice within a one-year period. Only 20 populations produced enough generations to analyze the variation in allele frequencies, with the remaining populations showing a high mortality rate of the host plant after only 1 year. The 20 analyzed populations showed surprisingly low effective population sizes, with most having N e close to 85 individuals. We attribute these low values to the variation in population size through time, systematic inbreeding, and unbalanced sex-ratios. Our results suggest that H. schachtii has low evolutionary potential in natural environments. Pest control strategies in which populations on crops mimic wild populations may help prevent parasite adaptation to host resistance. PMID:26989440

  8. GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. Effect of sampling methods, effective population size and migration rate estimation in Glossina palpalis palpalis from Cameroon.

    PubMed

    Mélachio, Tanekou Tito Trésor; Njiokou, Flobert; Ravel, Sophie; Simo, Gustave; Solano, Philippe; De Meeûs, Thierry

    2015-07-01

    Human and animal trypanosomiases are two major constraints to development in Africa. These diseases are mainly transmitted by tsetse flies in particular by Glossina palpalis palpalis in Western and Central Africa. To set up an effective vector control campaign, prior population genetics studies have proved useful. Previous studies on population genetics of G. p. palpalis using microsatellite loci showed high heterozygote deficits, as compared to Hardy-Weinberg expectations, mainly explained by the presence of null alleles and/or the mixing of individuals belonging to several reproductive units (Wahlund effect). In this study we implemented a system of trapping, consisting of a central trap and two to four satellite traps around the central one to evaluate a possible role of the Wahlund effect in tsetse flies from three Cameroon human and animal African trypanosomiases foci (Campo, Bipindi and Fontem). We also estimated effective population sizes and dispersal. No difference was observed between the values of allelic richness, genetic diversity and Wright's FIS, in the samples from central and from satellite traps, suggesting an absence of Wahlund effect. Partitioning of the samples with Bayesian methods showed numerous clusters of 2-3 individuals as expected from a population at demographic equilibrium with two expected offspring per reproducing female. As previously shown, null alleles appeared as the most probable factor inducing these heterozygote deficits in these populations. Effective population sizes varied from 80 to 450 individuals while immigration rates were between 0.05 and 0.43, showing substantial genetic exchanges between different villages within a focus. These results suggest that the "suppression" with establishment of physical barriers may be the best strategy for a vector control campaign in this forest context.

  10. Characterizing the Influence of Effective Population Size on the Rate of Adaptation: Gillespie’s Darwin Domain

    PubMed Central

    Jensen, Jeffrey D.; Bachtrog, Doris

    2011-01-01

    Characterizing the role of effective population size in dictating the rate of adaptive evolution remains a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Depending on the underlying distribution of fitness effects of new mutations, populations of different sizes may differ vastly in their rate of adaptation. Here, we collect polymorphism data at over 100 loci for two closely related Drosophila species with different current effective population sizes (Ne), Drosophila miranda and D. pseudoobscura, to evaluate the prevalence of adaptive evolution versus genetic drift in molecular evolution. Utilizing these large and consistently sampled data sets, we obtain greatly improved estimates of the demographic histories of both species. Specifically, although current Ne differs between these species, their ancestral sizes were much more similar. We find that statistical approaches capturing recent adaptive evolution (using patterns of polymorphisms) detect higher rates of adaptive evolution in the larger D. pseudoobscura population. In contrast, methods aimed at detecting selection over longer time periods (i.e., those relying on divergence data) estimate more similar rates of adaptation between the two species. Thus, our results suggest an important role of effective population size in dictating rates of adaptation and highlight how complicated population histories—as is probably the case for most species—can effect rates of adaptation. Additionally, we also show how different methodologies to detect positive selection can reveal information about different timescales of adaptive evolution. PMID:21705473

  11. Estimating the Effective Population Size from Temporal Allele Frequency Changes in Experimental Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Jónás, Ágnes; Taus, Thomas; Kosiol, Carolin; Schlötterer, Christian; Futschik, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is a major factor determining allele frequency changes in natural and experimental populations. Temporal methods provide a powerful and simple approach to estimate short-term Ne. They use allele frequency shifts between temporal samples to calculate the standardized variance, which is directly related to Ne. Here we focus on experimental evolution studies that often rely on repeated sequencing of samples in pools (Pool-seq). Pool-seq is cost-effective and often outperforms individual-based sequencing in estimating allele frequencies, but it is associated with atypical sampling properties: Additional to sampling individuals, sequencing DNA in pools leads to a second round of sampling, which increases the variance of allele frequency estimates. We propose a new estimator of Ne, which relies on allele frequency changes in temporal data and corrects for the variance in both sampling steps. In simulations, we obtain accurate Ne estimates, as long as the drift variance is not too small compared to the sampling and sequencing variance. In addition to genome-wide Ne estimates, we extend our method using a recursive partitioning approach to estimate Ne locally along the chromosome. Since the type I error is controlled, our method permits the identification of genomic regions that differ significantly in their Ne estimates. We present an application to Pool-seq data from experimental evolution with Drosophila and provide recommendations for whole-genome data. The estimator is computationally efficient and available as an R package at https://github.com/ThomasTaus/Nest. PMID:27542959

  12. Population structure, effective population size and adverse effects of stocking in the endangered Australian eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei.

    PubMed

    Nock, C J; Ovenden, J R; Butler, G L; Wooden, I; Moore, A; Baverstock, P R

    2011-01-01

    Microsatellite markers were used to examine spatio-temporal genetic variation in the endangered eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei in the Clarence River system, eastern Australia. High levels of population structure were detected. A model-based clustering analysis of multilocus genotypes identified four populations that were highly differentiated by F-statistics (F(ST) = 0·09 - 0·49; P < 0·05), suggesting fragmentation and restricted dispersal particularly among upstream sites. Hatchery breeding programmes were used to re-establish locally extirpated populations and to supplement remnant populations. Bayesian and frequency-based analyses of hatchery fingerling samples provided evidence for population admixture in the hatchery, with the majority of parental stock sourced from distinct upstream sites. Comparison between historical and contemporary wild-caught samples showed a significant loss of heterozygosity (21%) and allelic richness (24%) in the Mann and Nymboida Rivers since the commencement of stocking. Fragmentation may have been a causative factor; however, temporal shifts in allele frequencies suggest swamping with hatchery-produced M. ikei has contributed to the genetic decline in the largest wild population. This study demonstrates the importance of using information on genetic variation and population structure in the management of breeding and stocking programmes, particularly for threatened species. PMID:21235562

  13. On effect size.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Ken; Preacher, Kristopher J

    2012-06-01

    The call for researchers to report and interpret effect sizes and their corresponding confidence intervals has never been stronger. However, there is confusion in the literature on the definition of effect size, and consequently the term is used inconsistently. We propose a definition for effect size, discuss 3 facets of effect size (dimension, measure/index, and value), outline 10 corollaries that follow from our definition, and review ideal qualities of effect sizes. Our definition of effect size is general and subsumes many existing definitions of effect size. We define effect size as a quantitative reflection of the magnitude of some phenomenon that is used for the purpose of addressing a question of interest. Our definition of effect size is purposely more inclusive than the way many have defined and conceptualized effect size, and it is unique with regard to linking effect size to a question of interest. Additionally, we review some important developments in the effect size literature and discuss the importance of accompanying an effect size with an interval estimate that acknowledges the uncertainty with which the population value of the effect size has been estimated. We hope that this article will facilitate discussion and improve the practice of reporting and interpreting effect sizes. PMID:22545595

  14. Natal dispersal in great bustards: the effect of sex, local population size and spatial isolation.

    PubMed

    Martín, Carlos A; Alonso, Juan C; Alonso, Javier A; Palacín, Carlos; Magaña, Marina; Martín, Beatriz

    2008-03-01

    1. We investigated the causes of natal dispersal in four Spanish areas where 35 breeding groups of the polygynous great bustard Otis tarda were monitored intensively. A total of 392 juveniles were radio-tracked between 1991 and 2006 by ground and via aeroplane to avoid potential biases derived from the non-detection of long-distance dispersers. 2. We explored 10 explanatory variables that were related to individual phenotypic features, habitat and conspecific traits in terms of group size and breeding performance, and spatial distribution of available breeding groups. Probability of group change and natal dispersal distances were investigated separately through multifactorial analyses. 3. Natal dispersal occurred in 47.8% of the birds and median natal dispersal distance of dispersers was 18.1 km (range 4.97-178.42 km). Sex largely determined the dispersal probability, with 75.6% of males being dispersers and 80.0% of females being philopatric, in contrast to the general pattern of female-biased dispersal found in most avian species. 4. Both the frequency of natal dispersal and dispersal distances were affected by the spatial distribution of breeding groups. More isolated groups showed a higher proportion of philopatric individuals, the effect being more evident in males than in females. This implies a reduction in gene flow in fragmented populations, as most genetic exchange is achieved through male dispersal. Additionally, dispersers hatched in more isolated groups tended to exhibit longer dispersal distances, which increases the associated energetic costs and mortality risks. 5. The dispersal decision was influenced by the number of conspecifics in the natal group. The individual probability of natal dispersal was related inversely to the size of the natal group, which supports the balanced dispersal model and the conspecific attraction hypothesis. 6. Overall, our results provide a good example of phenotypic plasticity and reinforce the current view that

  15. Effective population size does not predict codon usage bias in mammals

    PubMed Central

    Kessler, Michael D; Dean, Matthew D

    2014-01-01

    Synonymous codons are not used at equal frequency throughout the genome, a phenomenon termed codon usage bias (CUB). It is often assumed that interspecific variation in the intensity of CUB is related to species differences in effective population sizes (Ne), with selection on CUB operating less efficiently in species with small Ne. Here, we specifically ask whether variation in Ne predicts differences in CUB in mammals and report two main findings. First, across 41 mammalian genomes, CUB was not correlated with two indirect proxies of Ne (body mass and generation time), even though there was statistically significant evidence of selection shaping CUB across all species. Interestingly, autosomal genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to X-linked genes, and high-recombination genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to low recombination genes, suggesting intraspecific variation in Ne predicts variation in CUB. Second, across six mammalian species with genetic estimates of Ne (human, chimpanzee, rabbit, and three mouse species: Mus musculus, M. domesticus, and M. castaneus), Ne and CUB were weakly and inconsistently correlated. At least in mammals, interspecific divergence in Ne does not strongly predict variation in CUB. One hypothesis is that each species responds to a unique distribution of selection coefficients, confounding any straightforward link between Ne and CUB. PMID:25505518

  16. Spatiotemporal relationship between adult census size and genetic population size across a wide population size gradient.

    PubMed

    Bernos, Thaїs A; Fraser, Dylan J

    2016-09-01

    Adult census population size (N) and effective number of breeders (Nb ) are highly relevant for designing effective conservation strategies. Both parameters are often challenging to quantify, however, making it of interest to determine whether one parameter can be generalized from the other. Yet, the spatiotemporal relationship between N and Nb has not been well characterized empirically in many taxa. We analysed this relationship for 5-7 consecutive years in twelve brook trout populations varying greatly in N (49-10032) and Nb (3-567) and identified major environmental variables affecting the two parameters. N or habitat size alone explained 47-57% of the variance in Nb , and Nb was strongly correlated with effective population size. The ratio Nb /N ranged from 0.01 to 0.45 and increased at small N or following an annual decrease in N, suggesting density-dependent constraints on Nb . We found no evidence for a consistent, directional difference between variability in Nb and/or Nb /N among small and large populations; however, small populations had more varying temporal variability in Nb /N ratios than large populations. Finally, Nb and Nb /N were 2.5- and 2.3-fold more variable among populations than temporally within populations. Our results demonstrate a clear linkage between demographic and evolutionary parameters, suggesting that Nb could be used to approximate N (or vice versa) in natural populations. Nevertheless, using one variable to infer the other to monitor trends within populations is less recommended, perhaps even less so in small populations given their less predictable Nb vs. N dynamics. PMID:27483203

  17. Population size and genome size in fishes: a closer look.

    PubMed

    Gregory, T Ryan; Witt, Jonathan D S

    2008-04-01

    The several thousand-fold range in genome size among animals has remained a subject of active research and debate for more than half a century, but no satisfactory explanation has yet been provided. Many one-dimensional models have been postulated, but so far none has been successful in accounting for observed patterns in genome size diversity. The recent model based on differences in effective population size appeared to gain empirical support with a study of genome size and inferred effective population size in fishes, but there were several questionable aspects of the analysis. First, it was based on an assumption that microsatellite heterozygosity indicates long-term effective population size, whereas in actuality these markers evolve quickly and are sensitive to demographic events. Second, it included both ancient polyploids and non-polyploids, the former of which did not gain their current genome sizes through the accumulation of slightly deleterious mutations as required in the model. Third, the analysis neglected the tremendous influence that Pleistocene glaciation bottlenecks had on heterozygosities in freshwater (and far less so, marine) fishes. In sum, it is apparent that genomes reached their current sizes in most fishes long before contemporary microsatellite heterozygosities were shaped, and that ancient polyploidy rather than the accumulation of mildly deleterious transposon insertions in small populations is the dominant factor that has influenced the large end of the range of genome sizes among fishes.

  18. Critical and Demographic Effective Population Size of African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Borgu Sector of Kainji Lake National Park, Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aremu, O. T.; Onadeko, S. A.; Ola-Adams, B. A.; Inah, E. I.

    Effective population size of African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) was estimated using Franklin and Frankham model. Buffalo relative abundance was calculated using a 4x4 km transect constructed in each of the identified six vegetation communities in the Park, which were traversed once a month for a period of 24 months. The results revealed that the relative abundance of Buffalo in the Park was 0.372±0.03 groups km-2 consisting of 51±5.827 groups representing 242±16.309 individuals which consist of 30 adult males and 70 adult females representing 12.40 and 28.93%, respectively of the total Buffalo population in the Park which was considered to be the effective breeding population size. The composition of the population structure was significantly different (p< 0.05). The effective population size of Buffalo in the Park was estimated to be 581.34±4.91 which was above the recommended value of 100 which shows that the Buffalo population in the Park was not threatened by demographic stochasticity factors but rather by illegal human activities in the Park. Measures to improve conservation and management of the existing Buffalo population in the Park are also discussed.

  19. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga)

    PubMed Central

    Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

    2015-01-01

    In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing. PMID:26090851

  20. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga).

    PubMed

    Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

    2015-01-01

    In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing. PMID:26090851

  1. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga).

    PubMed

    Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

    2015-01-01

    In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing.

  2. The history of effective population size and genetic diversity in the Yellowstone grizzly (Ursus arctos): implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Miller, Craig R; Waits, Lisette P

    2003-04-01

    Protein, mtDNA, and nuclear microsatellite DNA analyses have demonstrated that the Yellowstone grizzly bear has low levels of genetic variability compared with other Ursus arctos populations. Researchers have attributed this difference to inbreeding during a century of anthropogenic isolation and population size reduction. We test this hypothesis and assess the seriousness of genetic threats by generating microsatellite data for 110 museum specimens collected between 1912 and 1981. A loss of variability is detected, but it is much less severe than hypothesized. Variance in allele frequencies over time is used to estimate an effective population size of approximately 80 across the 20th century and >100 currently. The viability of the population is unlikely to be substantially reduced by genetic factors in the next several generations. However, gene flow from outside populations will be beneficial in avoiding inbreeding and the erosion of genetic diversity in the future.

  3. Stock enhancement or sea ranching? Insights from monitoring the genetic diversity, relatedness and effective population size in a seeded great scallop population (Pecten maximus).

    PubMed

    Morvezen, R; Boudry, P; Laroche, J; Charrier, G

    2016-09-01

    The mass release of hatchery-propagated stocks raises numerous questions concerning its efficiency in terms of local recruitment and effect on the genetic diversity of wild populations. A seeding program, consisting of mass release of hatchery-produced juveniles in the local naturally occurring population of great scallops (Pecten maximus L.), was initiated in the early 1980s in the Bay of Brest (France). The present study aims at evaluating whether this seeding program leads to actual population enhancement, with detectable effects on genetic diversity and effective population size, or consists of sea ranching with limited genetic consequences on the wild stock. To address this question, microsatellite-based genetic monitoring of three hatchery-born and naturally recruited populations was conducted over a 5-year period. Results showed a limited reduction in allelic richness but a strong alteration of allelic frequencies in hatchery populations, while genetic diversity appeared very stable over time in the wild populations. A temporal increase in relatedness was observed in both cultured stock and wild populations. Effective population size (Ne) estimates were low and variable in the wild population. Moreover, the application of the Ryman-Laikre model suggested a high contribution of hatchery-born scallops to the reproductive output of the wild population. Overall, the data suggest that the main objective of the seeding program, which is stock enhancement, is fulfilled. Moreover, gene flow from surrounding populations and/or the reproductive input of undetected sub-populations within the bay may buffer the Ryman-Laikre effect and ensure the retention of the local genetic variability.

  4. Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

    PubMed

    Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

    2016-06-01

    Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic

  5. Population and temperature effects on Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) body size and minimum development time.

    PubMed

    Tarone, A M; Picard, C J; Spiegelman, C; Foran, D R

    2011-09-01

    Understanding how ecological conditions influence physiological responses is fundamental to forensic entomology. When determining the minimum postmortem interval with blow fly evidence in forensic investigations, using a reliable and accurate model of development is integral. Many published studies vary in results, source populations, and experimental designs. Accordingly, disentangling genetic causes of developmental variation from environmental causes is difficult. This study determined the minimum time of development and pupal sizes of three populations of Lucilia sericata Meigen (Diptera: Calliphoridae; from California, Michigan, and West Virginia) at two temperatures (20 degrees C and 33.5 degrees C). Development times differed significantly between strain and temperature. In addition, California pupae were the largest and fastest developing at 20 degrees C, but at 33.5 degrees C, though they still maintained their rank in size among the three populations, they were the slowest to develop. These results indicate a need to account for genetic differences in development, and genetic variation in environmental responses, when estimating a postmortem interval with entomological data.

  6. Effect of reaction-step-size noise on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Be'er, Shay; Heller-Algazi, Metar; Assaf, Michael

    2016-05-01

    In genetic circuits, when the messenger RNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic states. Motivated by this scenario, we study a general problem of switching or escape in stochastic populations, where influx of particles occurs in groups or bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. The fact that the step size of the influx reaction is a priori unknown and, in general, may fluctuate in time with a given correlation time and statistics, introduces an additional nondemographic reaction-step-size noise into the system. Employing the probability-generating function technique in conjunction with Hamiltonian formulation, we are able to map the problem in the leading order onto solving a stationary Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We show that compared to the "usual case" of single-step influx, bursty influx exponentially decreases the population's mean escape time from its long-lived metastable state. In particular, close to bifurcation we find a simple analytical expression for the mean escape time which solely depends on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our results are demonstrated on several realistic distributions and compare well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations.

  7. Effect of reaction-step-size noise on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations.

    PubMed

    Be'er, Shay; Heller-Algazi, Metar; Assaf, Michael

    2016-05-01

    In genetic circuits, when the messenger RNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic states. Motivated by this scenario, we study a general problem of switching or escape in stochastic populations, where influx of particles occurs in groups or bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. The fact that the step size of the influx reaction is a priori unknown and, in general, may fluctuate in time with a given correlation time and statistics, introduces an additional nondemographic reaction-step-size noise into the system. Employing the probability-generating function technique in conjunction with Hamiltonian formulation, we are able to map the problem in the leading order onto solving a stationary Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We show that compared to the "usual case" of single-step influx, bursty influx exponentially decreases the population's mean escape time from its long-lived metastable state. In particular, close to bifurcation we find a simple analytical expression for the mean escape time which solely depends on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our results are demonstrated on several realistic distributions and compare well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. PMID:27300840

  8. Equilibrium Strategy and Population-Size Effects in Lowest Unique Bid Auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pigolotti, Simone; Bernhardsson, Sebastian; Juul, Jeppe; Galster, Gorm; Vivo, Pierpaolo

    2012-02-01

    In lowest unique bid auctions, N players bid for an item. The winner is whoever places the lowest bid, provided that it is also unique. We use a grand canonical approach to derive an analytical expression for the equilibrium distribution of strategies. We then study the properties of the solution as a function of the mean number of players, and compare them with a large data set of internet auctions. The theory agrees with the data with striking accuracy for small population-size N, while for larger N a qualitatively different distribution is observed. We interpret this result as the emergence of two different regimes, one in which adaptation is feasible and one in which it is not. Our results question the actual possibility of a large population to adapt and find the optimal strategy when participating in a collective game.

  9. Sociocultural Behavior, Sex-Biased Admixture, and Effective Population Sizes in Central African Pygmies and Non-Pygmies

    PubMed Central

    Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S.A.; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2013-01-01

    Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter–gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history. PMID:23300254

  10. Assessment of parental contribution and effective population size from a 3×3 diallel cross of clam Meretrix meretrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Ping; Wang, Hongxia; Liu, Baozhong

    2014-03-01

    Unbalanced parental contribution and small effective population size ( N e) are common issues during the artificial breeding of marine bivalves. The impact of hatchery-spawning practices on parental contribution, effective population size, the N e/ N ratio, and genetic diversity are largely unknown. To address this, we conducted a parentage analysis on a complete 3×3 diallel cross of clam M eretrix meretrix using eight microsatellite markers. The genetic diversity of the parents was higher than that of their respective offspring in most crosses (8/9). Sires or dams from the same family contributed unequally to the pool of offspring from a particular cross, and the same parent clam exhibited large variation in parental contribution among different crosses. The variance in male contribution was higher than that of the female contribution in most crosses, suggesting that male contribution was more skewed than for females. The N e/ N ratio for nine crosses ranged from 0.58 to 0.86. There was no linear relationship between the sex ratio and the N e/ N ratio ( P > 0.05). Moreover, a sex ratio closer to one-to-one does not necessarily mean a larger effective population size. A solution to small effective population size in commercial breeding programs is increasing broodstock numbers and attempting to maintain a balanced sex ratio.

  11. Consequences of the size structure of fish populations for their effects on a generalist avian predator.

    PubMed

    Kloskowski, Janusz

    2011-06-01

    Size-structured interspecific interactions can shift between predation and competition, depending on ontogenetic changes in size relationships. I examined the effects of common carp (Cyprinus carpio), an omnivorous fish, on the reproductive success of the red-necked grebe (Podiceps grisegena), an avian gape-limited predator, along a fish size gradient created by stocking distinct age-cohorts in seminatural ponds. Young-of-the-year (0+) carp were an essential food source for young grebes. Only adult birds were able to consume 1-year-old (1+) fish, while 2-year-old (2+) fish attained a size refuge from grebes. Amphibian larvae were the principal alternative prey to fish, followed by macroinvertebrates, but the abundance of both dramatically decreased along the carp size gradient. Fledging success was 2.8 times greater in ponds with 0+ versus 1+ carp; in ponds with 1+ carp, chicks received on average 2.6-3 times less prey biomass from their parents, and over 1/3 of broods suffered total failure. Breeding birds avoided settling on 2+ ponds. These results show that changes in prey fish size structure can account for shifts from positive trophic effects on the avian predator to a negative impact on the predator's alternative resources. However, competition did not fully explain the decrease in grebe food resources in the presence of large fish, as carp and grebes overlapped little in diet. In experimental cages, 1+ carp totally eliminated young larvae of amphibians palatable to fish. In field conditions, breeding adults of palatable taxa avoided ponds with 1+ and older carp. Non-trophic interactions such as habitat selection by amphibians or macroinvertebrates to avoid large fish may provide an indirect mechanism strengthening the adverse bottom-up effects of fish on birds.

  12. Effect of rotational disruption on the size-frequency distribution of the Main Belt asteroid population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Seth A.; Marzari, Francesco; Rossi, Alessandro; Scheeres, Daniel J.; Davis, Donald R.

    2014-03-01

    The size distribution of small asteroids in the Main Belt is assumed to be determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new bodies out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of small asteroids by collisions with smaller projectiles. However, for a diameter less than 6 km, we find that YORP-induced rotational disruption significantly contributes to the erosion even exceeding the effects of collisional fragmentation. Including this additional grinding mechanism in a collision evolution model for the asteroid belt, we generate size-frequency distributions from either an accretional or an `Asteroids were born big' initial size-frequency distribution that are consistent with observations reported in Gladman et al. Rotational disruption is a new mechanism that must be included in all future collisional evolution models of asteroids.

  13. Effects of positive interactions, size symmetry of competition and abiotic stress on self-thinning in simulated plant populations

    PubMed Central

    Chu, Cheng-Jin; Weiner, Jacob; Maestre, Fernando T.; Wang, You-Shi; Morris, Charles; Xiao, Sa; Yuan, Jian-Li; Du, Guo-Zhen; Wang, Gang

    2010-01-01

    Background and Aims Competition drives self-thinning (density-dependent mortality) in crowded plant populations. Facilitative interactions have been shown to affect many processes in plant populations and communities, but their effects on self-thinning trajectories have not been investigated. Methods Using an individual-based ‘zone-of-influence’ model, we studied the potential effects of the size symmetry of competition, abiotic stress and facilitation on self-thinning trajectories in plant monocultures. In the model, abiotic stress reduced the growth of all individuals and facilitation ameliorated the effects of stress on interacting individuals. Key Results Abiotic stress made the log biomass – log density relationship during self-thinning steeper, but this effect was reduced by positive interactions among individuals. Size-asymmetric competition also influenced the self-thinning slope. Conclusions Although competition drives self-thinning, its course can be affected by abiotic stress, facilitation and competitive symmetry. PMID:20643802

  14. Alternative reproductive tactics increase effective population size and decrease inbreeding in wild Atlantic salmon

    PubMed Central

    Perrier, Charles; Normandeau, Éric; Dionne, Mélanie; Richard, Antoine; Bernatchez, Louis

    2014-01-01

    While nonanadromous males (stream-resident and/or mature male parr) contribute to reproduction in anadromous salmonids, little is known about their impacts on key population genetic parameters. Here, we evaluated the contribution of Atlantic salmon mature male parr to the effective number of breeders (Nb) using both demographic (variance in reproductive success) and genetic (linkage disequilibrium) methods, the number of alleles, and the relatedness among breeders. We used a recently published pedigree reconstruction of a wild anadromous Atlantic salmon population in which 2548 fry born in 2010 were assigned parentage to 144 anadromous female and 101 anadromous females that returned to the river to spawn in 2009 and to 462 mature male parr. Demographic and genetic methods revealed that mature male parr increased population Nb by 1.79 and 1.85 times, respectively. Moreover, mature male parr boosted the number of alleles found among progenies. Finally, mature male parr were in average less related to anadromous females than were anadromous males, likely because of asynchronous sexual maturation between mature male parr and anadromous fish of a given cohort. By increasing Nb and allelic richness, and by decreasing inbreeding, the reproductive contribution of mature male parr has important evolutionary and conservation implications for declining Atlantic salmon populations. PMID:25553070

  15. Alternative reproductive tactics increase effective population size and decrease inbreeding in wild Atlantic salmon.

    PubMed

    Perrier, Charles; Normandeau, Éric; Dionne, Mélanie; Richard, Antoine; Bernatchez, Louis

    2014-11-01

    While nonanadromous males (stream-resident and/or mature male parr) contribute to reproduction in anadromous salmonids, little is known about their impacts on key population genetic parameters. Here, we evaluated the contribution of Atlantic salmon mature male parr to the effective number of breeders (Nb) using both demographic (variance in reproductive success) and genetic (linkage disequilibrium) methods, the number of alleles, and the relatedness among breeders. We used a recently published pedigree reconstruction of a wild anadromous Atlantic salmon population in which 2548 fry born in 2010 were assigned parentage to 144 anadromous female and 101 anadromous females that returned to the river to spawn in 2009 and to 462 mature male parr. Demographic and genetic methods revealed that mature male parr increased population Nb by 1.79 and 1.85 times, respectively. Moreover, mature male parr boosted the number of alleles found among progenies. Finally, mature male parr were in average less related to anadromous females than were anadromous males, likely because of asynchronous sexual maturation between mature male parr and anadromous fish of a given cohort. By increasing Nb and allelic richness, and by decreasing inbreeding, the reproductive contribution of mature male parr has important evolutionary and conservation implications for declining Atlantic salmon populations.

  16. The interacting effects of diversity and propagule pressure on early colonization and population size.

    PubMed

    Hedge, Luke H; Leung, Brian; O'Connor, Wayne A; Johnston, Emma L

    2014-01-01

    We are now beginning to understand the role of intraspecific diversity on fundamental ecological phenomena. There exists a paucity of knowledge, however, regarding how intraspecific, or genetic diversity, may covary with other important factors such as propagule pressure. A combination of theoretical modelling and experimentation was used to explore the way propagule pressure and genetic richness may interact. We compare colonization rates of the Australian bivalve Saccostrea glomerata (Gould 1885). We cross propagule size and genetic richness in a factorial design in order to examine the generalities of our theoretical model. Modelling showed that diversity and propagule pressure should generally interact synergistically when positive feedbacks occur (e.g. aggregation). The strength of genotype effects depended on propagule size, or the numerical abundance of arriving individuals. When propagule size was very small (<4 individuals), however, greater genetic richness unexpectedly reduced colonization. The probability of S. glomerata colonization was 76% in genetically rich, larger propagules, almost 39 percentage points higher than in genetically poor propagules of similar size. This pattern was not observed in less dense, smaller propagules. We predict that density-dependent interactions between larvae in the water column may explain this pattern. PMID:24001312

  17. Effects of Patch-Size on Populations of Intertidal Limpets, Siphonaria spp., in a Linear Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Cole, Victoria J.; Johnson, Linda G.; McQuaid, Christopher D.

    2012-01-01

    Organisms with different life-histories and abilities to disperse often utilise habitat patches in different ways. We investigated the influence of the size of patches of rock (separated by stretches of sand) on the density of pulmonate limpets (Siphonaria spp.) along 1500 km of the linear landscape of the South African coastline. We compared the influence of patch-size on two congeneric species with different modes of development, S. serrata a direct developer, and S. concinna a planktonic developer. We tested the spatial and temporal consistency of the effects of patch-size by sampling 7 independent regions spanning the distributional range of both species of limpets, and by sampling one region at monthly intervals for 1 year. Within each region or month, 4 small patches (<20 m in length) interspersed with the 4 large patches (>60 m in length) were sampled. Across the entire geographic range and throughout the year, there were more of both species of limpets in large patches than in small patches. In most regions, there was greater variability in large patches than small patches. Variability within patches in a single region was similar throughout the year, with greater variability of both species in large than in small patches. We found little influence of the mode of development on the response of limpets to patch-size. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding patterns of distribution of species with respect to habitat heterogeneity in linear landscapes, and contradict the idea that organism mobility at an early ontogenetic stage directly affects habitat use. PMID:23284875

  18. A century-long genetic record reveals that protist effective population sizes are comparable to those of macroscopic species

    PubMed Central

    Watts, Phillip C.; Lundholm, Nina; Ribeiro, Sofia; Ellegaard, Marianne

    2013-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) determines the rate of genetic drift and the relative influence of selection over random genetic changes. While free-living protist populations characteristically consist of huge numbers of cells (N), the absence of any estimates of contemporary Ne raises the question whether protist effective population sizes are comparably large. Using microsatellite genotype data of strains derived from revived cysts of the marine dinoflagellate Pentapharsodinium dalei from sections of a sediment record that spanned some 100 years, we present the first estimates of contemporary Ne for a local population in a free-living protist. The estimates of Ne are relatively small, of the order of a few 100 individuals, and thus are similar in magnitude to values of Ne reported for multicellular animals: the implications are that Ne of P. dalei is of many orders of magnitude lower than the number of cells present (Ne/N ∼ 10−12) and that stochastic genetic processes may be more prevalent in protist populations than previously anticipated. PMID:24284562

  19. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  20. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

    PubMed

    Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

    2015-11-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  1. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

    PubMed

    Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

    2015-11-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers. PMID:26510936

  2. Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants.

    PubMed

    Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, H B; Arctander, P; Nyakaana, S; Douglas-Hamilton, I; Siegismund, H R

    2008-09-01

    Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa. Contrary to expectations, detailed analyses of four contemporary age-based cohorts showed that the peak poaching epidemic in the 1970s caused detectable temporary genetic impacts, with genetic diversity rebounding as juveniles surviving the poaching era became reproductively mature. This study demonstrates the importance of climatic history in shaping the distribution and genetic history of a keystone species and highlights the utility of coalescent-based demographic approaches in unravelling ancestral demographic events despite a lack of ancient samples. Unique insights into the genetic signature of mid-Holocene climatic change in Africa and effects of recent poaching pressure on elephants are discussed.

  3. Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants.

    PubMed

    Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, H B; Arctander, P; Nyakaana, S; Douglas-Hamilton, I; Siegismund, H R

    2008-09-01

    Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa. Contrary to expectations, detailed analyses of four contemporary age-based cohorts showed that the peak poaching epidemic in the 1970s caused detectable temporary genetic impacts, with genetic diversity rebounding as juveniles surviving the poaching era became reproductively mature. This study demonstrates the importance of climatic history in shaping the distribution and genetic history of a keystone species and highlights the utility of coalescent-based demographic approaches in unravelling ancestral demographic events despite a lack of ancient samples. Unique insights into the genetic signature of mid-Holocene climatic change in Africa and effects of recent poaching pressure on elephants are discussed. PMID:18643879

  4. Interspecific hybridization contributes to high genetic diversity and apparent effective population size in an endemic population of mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula maculosa)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peters, Jeffrey L.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Lavretsky, Philip; Rezsutek, Michael; Johnson, William P.; McCracken, Kevin G.

    2014-01-01

    Under drift-mutation equilibrium, genetic diversity is expected to be correlated with effective population size (Ne). Changes in population size and gene flow are two important processes that can cause populations to deviate from this expected relationship. In this study, we used DNA sequences from six independent loci to examine the influence of these processes on standing genetic diversity in endemic mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) and geographically widespread mallards (A. platyrhynchos), two species known to hybridize. Mottled ducks have an estimated census size that is about two orders-of-magnitude smaller than that of mallards, yet these two species have similar levels of genetic diversity, especially at nuclear DNA. Coalescent analyses suggest that a population expansion in the mallard at least partly explains this discrepancy, but the mottled duck harbors higher genetic diversity and apparent N e than expected for its census size even after accounting for a population decline. Incorporating gene flow into the model, however, reduced the estimated Ne of mottled ducks to 33 % of the equilibrium Ne and yielded an estimated Ne consistent with census size. We also examined the utility of these loci to distinguish among mallards, mottled ducks, and their hybrids. Most putatively pure individuals were correctly assigned to species, but the power for detecting hybrids was low. Although hybridization with mallards potentially poses a conservation threat to mottled ducks by creating a risk of extinction by hybridization, introgression of mallard alleles has helped maintain high genetic diversity in mottled ducks and might be important for the adaptability and survival of this species.

  5. Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone.

    PubMed

    Buchholz-Sørensen, Molly; Vella, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus' revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus' within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus' within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus' within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone

  6. Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone.

    PubMed

    Buchholz-Sørensen, Molly; Vella, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus' revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus' within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus' within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus' within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone

  7. The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area, and human population size in the United States.

    PubMed

    Pautasso, Marco; McKinney, Michael L

    2007-10-01

    The "botanist effect" is thought to be the reason for higher plant species richness in areas where botanists are disproportionately present as an artefactual consequence of a more thorough sampling. We examined whether this was the case for U.S. counties. We collated the number of species of vascular plants, human population size, and the area of U.S. counties. Controlling for spatial autocorrelation and county area, plant species richness increased with human population size and density in counties with and without universities and/or botanical gardens, with no significant differences in the relation between the two subsets. This is consistent with previous findings and further evidence of a broad-scale positive correlation between species richness and human population presence, which has important consequences for the experience of nature by inhabitants of densely populated regions. Combined with the many reports of a negative correlation between the two variables at a local scale, the positive relation between plant species richness in U.S. counties and human population presence stresses the need for the conservation of seminatural areas in urbanized ecosystems and for the containment of urban and suburban sprawl.

  8. The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

    PubMed Central

    Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

  9. Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmutz, Joel A.

    2009-01-01

    Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

  10. Genetic variation, relatedness, and effective population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, M.A.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Talbot, S.L.; Sage, G.K.; Amstrup, K.S.

    2009-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are unique among bears in that they are adapted to the Arctic sea ice environment. Genetic data are useful for understanding their evolution and can contribute to management. We assessed parentage and relatedness of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska, with genetic data and field observations of age, sex, and mother-offspring and sibling relationships. Genotypes at 14 microsatellite DNA loci for 226 bears indicate that genetic variation is comparable to other populations of polar bears with mean number of alleles per locus of 7.9 and observed and expected heterozygosity of 0.71. The genetic data verified 60 field-identified mother-offspring pairs and identified 10 additional mother-cub pairs and 48 father-offspring pairs. The entire sample of related and unrelated bears had a mean pairwise relatedness index (rxy) of approximately zero, parent-offspring and siblings had rxy of approximately 0.5, and 5.2% of the samples had rxy values within the range expected for parent-offspring. Effective population size (Ne = 277) and the ratio of Ne to total population size (Ne/N = 0.182) were estimated from the numbers of reproducing males and females. Ne estimates with genetic methods gave variable results. Our results verify and expand field data on reproduction by females and provide new data on reproduction by males and estimates of relatedness and Ne in a polar bear population. ?? The American Genetic Association. 2009. All rights reserved.

  11. Effective Population Size and Signatures of Selection Using Bovine 50K SNP Chips in Korean Native Cattle (Hanwoo)

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yi; Kim, Jong-Joo

    2015-01-01

    Inferring the effective population size and the pattern of selection signatures is of interest both from an evolutionary perspective and to improve models for mapping of quantitative trait genes. We used DNA samples of 61 sires and 486 progeny of the Hanwoo, genotyped by the Illumina Bovine SNP50 BeadChip, to analyze the genetic structure. Our study showed a persistent decline in effective population size throughout the period considered, but suggested a marked decline at one distinctive time point (100th generation) and two sharp decline intervals (50th–25th generation and 25th–10th generation). This pattern can be explained by Hanwoo formation and the modern breeding program. Our results revealed 95 regions exhibiting the footprint of recent positive selection at a threshold level of 0.01. We found an overlap of the 11 core regions presenting top P-values and those that had previously been identified as harboring quantitative trait loci from other breeds. The information generated from this study can be used to better understand the mechanism of selection in Hanwoo breeding, and provide important implications for the design and application of association studies in the Hanwoo population. PMID:26244003

  12. Genomic Prediction in Pea: Effect of Marker Density and Training Population Size and Composition on Prediction Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Tayeh, Nadim; Klein, Anthony; Le Paslier, Marie-Christine; Jacquin, Françoise; Houtin, Hervé; Rond, Céline; Chabert-Martinello, Marianne; Magnin-Robert, Jean-Bernard; Marget, Pascal; Aubert, Grégoire; Burstin, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Pea is an important food and feed crop and a valuable component of low-input farming systems. Improving resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses is a major breeding target to enhance yield potential and regularity. Genomic selection (GS) has lately emerged as a promising technique to increase the accuracy and gain of marker-based selection. It uses genome-wide molecular marker data to predict the breeding values of candidate lines to selection. A collection of 339 genetic resource accessions (CRB339) was subjected to high-density genotyping using the GenoPea 13.2K SNP Array. Genomic prediction accuracy was evaluated for thousand seed weight (TSW), the number of seeds per plant (NSeed), and the date of flowering (BegFlo). Mean cross-environment prediction accuracies reached 0.83 for TSW, 0.68 for NSeed, and 0.65 for BegFlo. For each trait, the statistical method, the marker density, and/or the training population size and composition used for prediction were varied to investigate their effects on prediction accuracy: the effect was large for the size and composition of the training population but limited for the statistical method and marker density. Maximizing the relatedness between individuals in the training and test sets, through the CDmean-based method, significantly improved prediction accuracies. A cross-population cross-validation experiment was further conducted using the CRB339 collection as a training population set and nine recombinant inbred lines populations as test set. Prediction quality was high with mean Q2 of 0.44 for TSW and 0.59 for BegFlo. Results are discussed in the light of current efforts to develop GS strategies in pea. PMID:26635819

  13. Large fluctuations in the effective population size of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae s.s. during vector control cycle.

    PubMed

    Hodges, Theresa K; Athrey, Giridhar; Deitz, Kevin C; Overgaard, Hans J; Matias, Abrahan; Caccone, Adalgisa; Slotman, Michel A

    2013-12-01

    On Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, indoor residual spraying (IRS) has been part of the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project since early 2004. Despite success in reducing childhood infections, areas of high transmission remain on the island. We therefore examined fluctuations in the effective population size (N e ) of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae in an area of persistent high transmission over two spray rounds. We analyzed data for 13 microsatellite loci from 791 An. gambiae specimens collected at six time points in 2009 and 2010 and reconstructed the demographic history of the population during this period using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Our analysis shows that IRS rounds have a large impact on N e , reducing it by 65%-92% from prespray round N e . More importantly, our analysis shows that after 3-5 months, the An. gambiae population rebounded by 2818% compared shortly following the spray round. Our study underscores the importance of adequate spray round frequency to provide continuous suppression of mosquito populations and that increased spray round frequency should substantially improve the efficacy of IRS campaigns. It also demonstrates the ability of ABC to reconstruct a detailed demographic history across only a few tens of generations in a large population.

  14. Likelihood-based estimation of the effective population size using temporal changes in allele frequencies: a genealogical approach.

    PubMed Central

    Berthier, Pierre; Beaumont, Mark A; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Luikart, Gordon

    2002-01-01

    A new genetic estimator of the effective population size (N(e)) is introduced. This likelihood-based (LB) estimator uses two temporally spaced genetic samples of individuals from a population. We compared its performance to that of the classical F-statistic-based N(e) estimator (N(eFk)) by using data from simulated populations with known N(e) and real populations. The new likelihood-based estimator (N(eLB)) showed narrower credible intervals and greater accuracy than (N(eFk)) when genetic drift was strong, but performed only slightly better when genetic drift was relatively weak. When drift was strong (e.g., N(e) = 20 for five generations), as few as approximately 10 loci (heterozygosity of 0.6; samples of 30 individuals) are sufficient to consistently achieve credible intervals with an upper limit <50 using the LB method. In contrast, approximately 20 loci are required for the same precision when using the classical F-statistic approach. The N(eLB) estimator is much improved over the classical method when there are many rare alleles. It will be especially useful in conservation biology because it less often overestimates N(e) than does N(eLB) and thus is less likely to erroneously suggest that a population is large and has a low extinction risk. PMID:11861575

  15. Large fluctuations in the effective population size of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae s.s. during vector control cycle

    PubMed Central

    Hodges, Theresa K; Athrey, Giridhar; Deitz, Kevin C; Overgaard, Hans J; Matias, Abrahan; Caccone, Adalgisa; Slotman, Michel A

    2013-01-01

    On Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, indoor residual spraying (IRS) has been part of the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project since early 2004. Despite success in reducing childhood infections, areas of high transmission remain on the island. We therefore examined fluctuations in the effective population size (Ne) of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae in an area of persistent high transmission over two spray rounds. We analyzed data for 13 microsatellite loci from 791 An. gambiae specimens collected at six time points in 2009 and 2010 and reconstructed the demographic history of the population during this period using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Our analysis shows that IRS rounds have a large impact on Ne, reducing it by 65%–92% from prespray round Ne. More importantly, our analysis shows that after 3–5 months, the An. gambiae population rebounded by 2818% compared shortly following the spray round. Our study underscores the importance of adequate spray round frequency to provide continuous suppression of mosquito populations and that increased spray round frequency should substantially improve the efficacy of IRS campaigns. It also demonstrates the ability of ABC to reconstruct a detailed demographic history across only a few tens of generations in a large population. PMID:24478799

  16. PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black-and-white Ficedula flycatchers.

    PubMed

    Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

    2016-03-01

    Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (Ne ) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in Ne over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black-and-white flycatchers. Ne curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1-2 million years ago (Ma) at an Ne of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate Ne trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100-200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in Ne differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of Ne differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per-site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data. PMID:26797914

  17. Effects of habitat fragmentation, population size and demographic history on genetic diversity: the Cross River gorilla in a comparative context.

    PubMed

    Bergl, Richard A; Bradley, Brenda J; Nsubuga, Anthony; Vigilant, Linda

    2008-09-01

    In small and fragmented populations, genetic diversity may be reduced owing to increased levels of drift and inbreeding. This reduced diversity is often associated with decreased fitness and a higher threat of extinction. However, it is difficult to determine when a population has low diversity except in a comparative context. We assessed genetic variability in the critically endangered Cross River gorilla (Gorilla gorilla diehli), a small and fragmented population, using 11 autosomal microsatellite loci. We show that levels of diversity in the Cross River population are not evenly distributed across the three genetically identified subpopulations, and that one centrally located subpopulation has higher levels of variability than the others. All measures of genetic variability in the Cross River population were comparable to those of the similarly small mountain gorilla (G. beringei beringei) populations (Bwindi and Virunga). However, for some measures both the Cross River and mountain gorilla populations show lower levels of diversity than a sample from a large, continuous western gorilla population (Mondika, G. gorilla gorilla). Finally, we tested for the genetic signature of a bottleneck in each of the four populations. Only Cross River showed strong evidence of a reduction in population size, suggesting that the reduction in size of this population was more recent or abrupt than in the two mountain gorilla populations. These results emphasize the need for maintaining connectivity in fragmented populations and highlight the importance of allowing small populations to expand. PMID:18521886

  18. Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H T; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

    2015-01-01

    Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland's conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years' census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. PMID:26601785

  19. Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H T; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

    2015-11-25

    Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland's conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years' census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.

  20. Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

    2015-01-01

    Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland’s conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years’ census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. PMID:26601785

  1. Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

    2015-11-01

    Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland’s conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years’ census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.

  2. Genetic Structure and Effective Population Sizes in European Red Deer (Cervus elaphus) at a Continental Scale: Insights from Microsatellite DNA.

    PubMed

    Zachos, Frank E; Frantz, Alain C; Kuehn, Ralph; Bertouille, Sabine; Colyn, Marc; Niedziałkowska, Magdalena; Pérez-González, Javier; Skog, Anna; Sprĕm, Nikica; Flamand, Marie-Christine

    2016-07-01

    We analyzed more than 600 red deer (Cervus elaphus) from large parts of its European distribution range at 13 microsatellite loci, presenting the first continent-wide study of this species using nuclear markers. Populations were clearly differentiated (overall F ST = 0.166, Jost's D est = 0.385), and the BAPS clustering algorithm yielded mainly geographically limited and adjacent genetic units. When forced into only 3 genetic clusters our data set produced a very similar geographic pattern as previously found in mtDNA phylogeographic studies: a western group from Iberia to central and parts of Eastern Europe, an eastern group from the Balkans to Eastern Europe, and a third group including the threatened relict populations from Sardinia and Mesola in Italy. This result was also confirmed by a multivariate approach to analyzing our data set, a discriminant analysis of principal components. Calculations of genetic diversity and effective population sizes (linkage disequilibrium approach) yielded the lowest results for Italian (Sardinia, Mesola; N e between 2 and 8) and Scandinavian red deer, in line with known bottlenecks in these populations. Our study is the first to present comparative nuclear genetic data in red deer across Europe and may serve as a baseline for future analyses of genetic diversity and structuring in this widespread ungulate.

  3. Genetic Structure and Effective Population Sizes in European Red Deer (Cervus elaphus) at a Continental Scale: Insights from Microsatellite DNA.

    PubMed

    Zachos, Frank E; Frantz, Alain C; Kuehn, Ralph; Bertouille, Sabine; Colyn, Marc; Niedziałkowska, Magdalena; Pérez-González, Javier; Skog, Anna; Sprĕm, Nikica; Flamand, Marie-Christine

    2016-07-01

    We analyzed more than 600 red deer (Cervus elaphus) from large parts of its European distribution range at 13 microsatellite loci, presenting the first continent-wide study of this species using nuclear markers. Populations were clearly differentiated (overall F ST = 0.166, Jost's D est = 0.385), and the BAPS clustering algorithm yielded mainly geographically limited and adjacent genetic units. When forced into only 3 genetic clusters our data set produced a very similar geographic pattern as previously found in mtDNA phylogeographic studies: a western group from Iberia to central and parts of Eastern Europe, an eastern group from the Balkans to Eastern Europe, and a third group including the threatened relict populations from Sardinia and Mesola in Italy. This result was also confirmed by a multivariate approach to analyzing our data set, a discriminant analysis of principal components. Calculations of genetic diversity and effective population sizes (linkage disequilibrium approach) yielded the lowest results for Italian (Sardinia, Mesola; N e between 2 and 8) and Scandinavian red deer, in line with known bottlenecks in these populations. Our study is the first to present comparative nuclear genetic data in red deer across Europe and may serve as a baseline for future analyses of genetic diversity and structuring in this widespread ungulate. PMID:26912909

  4. Effects of consumption-oriented versus trophy-oriented fisheries on Muskellunge population size structure in northern Wisconsin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Faust, Matthew D.; Hansen, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    To determine whether a consumption-oriented fishery was compatible with a trophy-oriented fishery for Muskellunge Esox masquinongy, we modeled effects of a spearing fishery and recreational angling fishery on population size structure (i.e., numbers of fish ≥ 102, 114, and 127 cm) in northern Wisconsin. An individual-based simulation model was used to quantify the effect of harvest mortality at currently observed levels of recreational angling and tribal spearing fishery exploitation, along with simulated increases in exploitation, for three typical growth potentials (i.e., low, moderate, and high) of Muskellunge in northern Wisconsin across a variety of minimum length limits (i.e., 71, 102, 114, and 127 cm). Populations with moderate to high growth potential and minimum length limits ≥ 114 cm were predicted to have lower declines in numbers of trophy Muskellunge when subjected to angling-only and mixed fisheries at observed and increased levels of exploitation, which suggested that fisheries with disparate motivations may be able to coexist under certain conditions such as restrictive length limits and low levels of exploitation. However, for most Muskellunge populations in northern Wisconsin regulated by a 102-cm minimum length limit, both angling and spearing fisheries may reduce numbers of trophy Muskellunge as larger declines were predicted across all growth potentials. Our results may be useful if Muskellunge management options in northern Wisconsin are re-examined in the future.

  5. Universal size effects for populations in group-outcome decision-making problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borghesi, Christian; Hernández, Laura; Louf, Rémi; Caparros, Fabrice

    2013-12-01

    Elections constitute a paradigm of decision-making problems that have puzzled experts of different disciplines for decades. We study two decision-making problems, where groups make decisions that impact only themselves as a group. In both studied cases, participation in local elections and the number of democratic representatives at different scales (from local to national), we observe a universal scaling with the constituency size. These results may be interpreted as constituencies having a hierarchical structure, where each group of N agents, at each level of the hierarchy, is divided in about Nδ subgroups with δ≈1/3. Following this interpretation, we propose a phenomenological model of vote participation where abstention is related to the perceived link of an agent to the rest of the constituency and which reproduces quantitatively the observed data.

  6. Temporal trends in genetic data and effective population size support efficacy of management practices in critically endangered dusky gopher frogs (Lithobates sevosus).

    PubMed

    Hinkson, Kristin M; Richter, Stephen C

    2016-05-01

    Monitoring temporal changes in population genetic diversity and effective population size can provide vital information on future viability. The dusky gopher frog, Lithobates sevosus, is a critically endangered species found only in coastal Mississippi, with low genetic variability as a consequence of isolation and population size reduction. Conservation management practices have been implemented, but their efficacy has not been addressed. We genotyped individuals collected 1997-2014 to determine temporal trends in population genetic variation, structure, and effective size. Observed and expected heterozygosity and allelic richness revealed temporally stable, but low, levels of genetic variation. Positive levels of inbreeding were found in each year. There was weak genetic structure among years, which can be attributed to increased effects of genetic drift and inbreeding in small populations. L. sevosus exhibited an increase in effective population size, and currently has an estimated effective size of 33.0-58.6 individuals, which is approximately half the census size. This large ratio could possibly be explained by genetic compensation. We found that management practices have been effective at maintaining and improving effective size and genetic diversity, but that additional strategies need to be implemented to enhance viability of the species.

  7. Population size, distribution and growth in Iran.

    PubMed

    Kamiar, M

    1985-01-01

    The author examines population size, distribution, and growth in Iran using data for 1966, 1976 census data, and some historical data for the nineteenth century. "This paper discusses changes in the size of population through time, population distribution, and regional patterns of population growth of the 23 provinces. It has been argued in this paper that because of a large family size norm as a religious duty to increase the numbers of the Islamic faith, early age at marriage, especially among females, common practice of polygamy, and the war with Iraq, population will grow even faster. It is concluded that population policy must be integrated into the national development plans."

  8. A method for detecting recent changes in contemporary effective population size from linkage disequilibrium at linked and unlinked loci.

    PubMed

    Hollenbeck, C M; Portnoy, D S; Gold, J R

    2016-10-01

    Estimation of contemporary effective population size (Ne) from linkage disequilibrium (LD) between unlinked pairs of genetic markers has become an important tool in the field of population and conservation genetics. If data pertaining to physical linkage or genomic position are available for genetic markers, estimates of recombination rate between loci can be combined with LD data to estimate contemporary Ne at various times in the past. We extend the well-known, LD-based method of estimating contemporary Ne to include linkage information and show via simulation that even relatively small, recent changes in Ne can be detected reliably with a modest number of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci. We explore several issues important to interpretation of the results and quantify the bias in estimates of contemporary Ne associated with the assumption that all loci in a large SNP data set are unlinked. The approach is applied to an empirical data set of SNP genotypes from a population of a marine fish where a recent, temporary decline in Ne is known to have occurred.

  9. Temporal effective size estimates of a managed walleye Sander vitreus population and implications for genetic-based management.

    PubMed

    Franckowiak, R P; Sloss, B L; Bozek, M A; Newman, S P

    2009-04-01

    The goal of this research was to use the long-term fishery data set and DNA from archived scales of walleye Sander vitreus in Escanaba Lake, WI, U.S.A., to improve the understanding of the underlying mechanism(s) influencing genetic diversity in naturally recruiting populations. The introduced population of S. vitreus in Escanaba Lake has a low mean effective population size (N(E)) between 124.6 and 185.5 despite a mean census size (N(C)) of 4659 (N(E)/N(C)c. 0.04), suggesting an accelerated rate of genetic drift between 1952 and 2002. These values are smaller than the median N(E) range of several studies suggesting typical N(E)/N(C) ratios of 0.11-0.16 in a wide range of taxa. N(E) increased steadily during the past two sampled decades (1992 and 2002) and was consistent with a lowering of the variance in S. vitreus reproductive success, possibly linked to a large, sustained exploitation (mean 28%) rate. Variance in reproductive success is one of the most important factors influencing N(E) in species, like S. vitreus, which have a potential for large fecundities and large juvenile mortalities (type III survivorship). The N(B) estimates across six sequential cohorts (age classes of S. vitreus, assayed from 1994 to 1999) was consistent with estimates of N(E) reported for 1992-2002. These results, coupled with in-depth census and exploitation data, show that the genetic characteristics of Escanaba Lake S. vitreus have changed substantially and that management activities, such as supplemental stocking and harvest practices, have profoundly influenced the genetic dynamics of S. vitreus in this lake.

  10. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size.

    PubMed

    Cruz, Marcos; Gómez, Domingo; Cruz-Orive, Luis M

    2015-01-01

    Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple-it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option. PMID:26535587

  11. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Cruz, Marcos; Gómez, Domingo; Cruz-Orive, Luis M.

    2015-01-01

    Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple—it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option. PMID:26535587

  12. Life-history traits and effective population size in species with overlapping generations revisited: the importance of adult mortality.

    PubMed

    Waples, R S

    2016-10-01

    The relationship between life-history traits and the key eco-evolutionary parameters effective population size (Ne) and Ne/N is revisited for iteroparous species with overlapping generations, with a focus on the annual rate of adult mortality (d). Analytical methods based on populations with arbitrarily long adult lifespans are used to evaluate the influence of d on Ne, Ne/N and the factors that determine these parameters: adult abundance (N), generation length (T), age at maturity (α), the ratio of variance to mean reproductive success in one season by individuals of the same age (φ) and lifetime variance in reproductive success of individuals in a cohort (Vk•). Although the resulting estimators of N, T and Vk• are upwardly biased for species with short adult lifespans, the estimate of Ne/N is largely unbiased because biases in T are compensated for by biases in Vk• and N. For the first time, the contrasting effects of T and Vk• on Ne and Ne/N are jointly considered with respect to d and φ. A simple function of d and α based on the assumption of constant vital rates is shown to be a robust predictor (R(2)=0.78) of Ne/N in an empirical data set of life tables for 63 animal and plant species with diverse life histories. Results presented here should provide important context for interpreting the surge of genetically based estimates of Ne that has been fueled by the genomics revolution. PMID:27273324

  13. Monitoring dolphins in an urban marine system: total and effective population size estimates of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia.

    PubMed

    Ansmann, Ina C; Lanyon, Janet M; Seddon, Jennifer M; Parra, Guido J

    2013-01-01

    Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008-2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne ) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Ne c). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554 ± 22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510-598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193 ± 6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181-207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446 ± 56 (SE) (95% CI: 336-556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Ne c = 56, 95% CI: 33-128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect abundance

  14. Does the invasive Lupinus polyphyllus increase pollinator visitation to a native herb through effects on pollinator population sizes?

    PubMed

    Jakobsson, Anna; Padrón, Benigno

    2014-01-01

    Invasive plants may compete with native species for abiotic factors as light, space and nutrients, and have also been shown to affect native pollination interactions. Studies have mainly focused on how invasive plants affect pollinator behaviour, i.e. attraction of pollinators to or away from native flowers. However, when an invasive plant provides resources utilized by native pollinators this could increase pollinator population sizes and thereby pollination success in natives. Effects mediated through changes in pollinator population sizes have been largely ignored in previous studies, and the dominance of negative interactions suggested by meta-analyses may therefore be biased. We investigated the impact of the invasive Lupinus polyphyllus on pollination in the native Lotus corniculatus using a study design comparing invaded and uninvaded sites before and after the flowering period of the invasive. We monitored wild bee abundance in transects, and visit rate and seed production of potted Lotus plants. Bumblebee abundance increased 3.9 times in invaded sites during the study period, whereas it was unaltered in uninvaded sites. Total visit rate per Lotus plant increased 2.1 times in invaded sites and decreased 4.4 times in uninvaded sites. No corresponding change in seed production of Lotus was found. The increase in visit rate to Lotus was driven by an increase in solitary bee visitation, whereas mainly bumblebees were observed to visit the invasive Lupinus. The mechanism by which the invasive increases pollinator visit rates to Lotus could be increased availability of other flower resources for solitary bees when bumblebees forage on Lupinus.

  15. Home range size variation in a recovering wolf population: evaluating the effect of environmental, demographic, and social factors.

    PubMed

    Mattisson, Jenny; Sand, Håkan; Wabakken, Petter; Gervasi, Vincenzo; Liberg, Olof; Linnell, John D C; Rauset, Geir Rune; Pedersen, Hans Christian

    2013-11-01

    Home range size in mammals is a key ecological trait and an important parameter in conservation planning, and has been shown to be influenced by ecological, demographic and social factors in animal populations. Information on space requirements is especially important for carnivore species which range over very large areas and often come into direct conflict with human interest. We used long-term telemetry-location data from a recovering wolf population in Scandinavia to investigate variation in home range size in relation to environmental and social characteristics of the different packs. Wolves showed considerable variation in home range size, which ranged from 259 to 1,676 km(2). Although wolf density increased fourfold during the study period, we found no evidence that intraspecific competition influenced range size. Local variation in moose density, which was the main prey for most packs, did not influence wolf home range size. Home ranges increased with latitude and elevation and decreased with increased roe deer density. Although prey biomass alone did not influence range size, our data suggest that there is a correlation between habitat characteristics, choice of prey species and possible hunting success, which currently combine to shape home range size in Scandinavian wolves. PMID:23636461

  16. The Effect of Small-Size Habitat Disturbances on Population Density and Time to Extinction of the Prairie Vole

    SciTech Connect

    Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

    2004-12-13

    We present a study, based on simulations with SERDYCA, a spatially-explicit individual-based model of rodent dynamics, on the relation between population persistence and the presence of numerous isolated disturbances in the habitat. We are specifically interested in the effect of disturbances that do not fragment the environment on population persistence. Our results suggest that the presence of disturbances in the absence of fragmentation can actually increase the average time to extinction of the modeled population. The presence of disturbances decreases population density but can increase the chance for mating in monogamous species and consequently, the ratio of juveniles in the population. It thus provides a better chance for the population to restore itself after a severe period with critically low population density. We call this the ''disturbance-forced localization effect''.

  17. A Classroom Investigation of the Effect of Population Size and Income on Success in the London 2012 Olympics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Nancy; Felton, Nathan; Schwertman, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Engaging students in active learning can enhance their understanding and appreciation of a subject such as statistics. Classroom activities and projects help to engage students and further promote the learning process. In this paper, an activity investigating the influence of population size and wealth on the medal counts from the 2012 London…

  18. On Effect Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelley, Ken; Preacher, Kristopher J.

    2012-01-01

    The call for researchers to report and interpret effect sizes and their corresponding confidence intervals has never been stronger. However, there is confusion in the literature on the definition of effect size, and consequently the term is used inconsistently. We propose a definition for effect size, discuss 3 facets of effect size (dimension,…

  19. Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

  20. Determining the Population Size of Pond Phytoplankton.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hummer, Paul J.

    1980-01-01

    Discusses methods for determining the population size of pond phytoplankton, including water sampling techniques, laboratory analysis of samples, and additional studies worthy of investigation in class or as individual projects. (CS)

  1. Global phylogeography of the dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus): the influence of large effective population size and recent dispersal on the divergence of a marine pelagic cosmopolitan species.

    PubMed

    Díaz-Jaimes, P; Uribe-Alcocer, M; Rocha-Olivares, A; García-de-León, F J; Nortmoon, P; Durand, J D

    2010-12-01

    Pelagic fish that are distributed circumtropically are characterised by a low population structure level as a result of a high capacity for dispersion and large population sizes. Nevertheless, historical and contemporary processes, including past demographic and/or range expansions, secondary contact, dispersal, gene flow, and the achievement of large effective population sizes, may play a part in the detection of divergence signals, especially in the case of tropical pelagic species, whose distribution range depends strongly on the sea surface temperature. The connectivity and historical demography of Atlantic, Indian, Pacific and Mediterranean populations of dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) was studied using partial sequences of the mitochondrial DNA NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1 (ND1). AMOVA analyses revealed significant inter-oceanic divergence with three phylogroups located in the Indo-Pacific, Eastern Atlantic, and Mediterranean Sea, the last one being the most divergent. However, it was not possible to clearly observe any genetic differentiation between the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic populations, as has been reported for most tropical pelagic species of tuna and billfishes. This supports the assumption of recent dispersal among basins facilitated by the actual continuous distribution of dolphinfish populations. Moreover, the lack of a divergence signal for populations separated by the Panamanian Isthmus reveals that genetic drift does not exert a strong influence on tropical pelagic species with large effective population sizes. PMID:20971198

  2. Phylogenetic effective sample size.

    PubMed

    Bartoszek, Krzysztof

    2016-10-21

    In this paper I address the question-how large is a phylogenetic sample? I propose a definition of a phylogenetic effective sample size for Brownian motion and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes-the regression effective sample size. I discuss how mutual information can be used to define an effective sample size in the non-normal process case and compare these two definitions to an already present concept of effective sample size (the mean effective sample size). Through a simulation study I find that the AICc is robust if one corrects for the number of species or effective number of species. Lastly I discuss how the concept of the phylogenetic effective sample size can be useful for biodiversity quantification, identification of interesting clades and deciding on the importance of phylogenetic correlations. PMID:27343033

  3. Drift load in populations of small size and low density.

    PubMed

    Willi, Y; Griffin, P; Van Buskirk, J

    2013-03-01

    According to theory, drift load in randomly mating populations is determined by past population size, because enhanced genetic drift in small populations causes accumulation and fixation of recessive deleterious mutations of small effect. In contrast, segregating load due to mutations of low frequency should decline in smaller populations, at least when mutations are highly recessive and strongly deleterious. Strong local selection generally reduces both types of load. We tested these predictions in 13 isolated, outcrossing populations of Arabidopsis lyrata that varied in population size and plant density. Long-term size was estimated by expected heterozygosity at 20 microsatellite loci. Segregating load was assessed by comparing performance of offspring from selfings versus within-population crosses. Drift load was the heterosis effect created by interpopulation outbreeding. Results showed that segregating load was unrelated to long-term size. However, drift load was significantly higher in populations of small effective size and low density. Drift load was mostly expressed late in development, but started as early as germination and accumulated thereafter. The study largely confirms predictions of theory and illustrates that mutation accumulation can be a threat to natural populations.

  4. Hunting, pet trade, and forest size effects on population viability of a critically endangered Neotropical primate, Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826).

    PubMed

    da Silva, Fabiana Araújo; Canale, Gustavo Rodrigues; Kierulff, Maria Cecília M; Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira; Paglia, Adriano Pereira; Bernardo, Christine S S

    2016-09-01

    The yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos) is one of the seven Brazilian primates that are currently threatened with extinction. Although the species is known to be threatened by habitat loss, hunting, and illegal pet trade, few data exist on how these threats influence its long-term population persistence. We conducted population viability analyses (PVAs) to estimate minimum viable populations of S. xanthosternos under 10 threat scenarios (i.e., varying hunting pressure and varying number of infants captured for the pet trade) for five forest fragments with different estimated carrying capacities (K). We also estimated the minimum forest fragment size required to sustain viable populations living under the same 10 threat scenarios, based on critical numbers of K obtained in sensitivity tests, below which the population would be unviable. Our PVAs suggests that hunting has a higher impact on population viability in comparison to threats from the pet trade. Annual losses of adult and young females from hunting had the most detrimental effect on population persistence under all forest fragment sizes. Such hunting pressure is not sustainable for populations living in areas ≤3,460 ha, since these areas may not support populations of ≥84 individuals. The seven largest of the 13 protected areas currently harboring capuchins should be effective at maintaining viable populations in the long term even under the greatest threat scenarios we modeled. Other large forest patches, mainly in the western part of the species distribution, are recommended as priority areas for protection to increase the chances of capuchins' survival for the long term. In addition, forest fragments of ≤782.8 ha cannot maintain viable populations, even when there are no threats from hunting or from captures for the pet trade. Increased law enforcement is necessary to prevent the hunting and capture of capuchins, especially within larger forest fragments. Am. J. Primatol. 78

  5. Hunting, pet trade, and forest size effects on population viability of a critically endangered Neotropical primate, Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826).

    PubMed

    da Silva, Fabiana Araújo; Canale, Gustavo Rodrigues; Kierulff, Maria Cecília M; Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira; Paglia, Adriano Pereira; Bernardo, Christine S S

    2016-09-01

    The yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos) is one of the seven Brazilian primates that are currently threatened with extinction. Although the species is known to be threatened by habitat loss, hunting, and illegal pet trade, few data exist on how these threats influence its long-term population persistence. We conducted population viability analyses (PVAs) to estimate minimum viable populations of S. xanthosternos under 10 threat scenarios (i.e., varying hunting pressure and varying number of infants captured for the pet trade) for five forest fragments with different estimated carrying capacities (K). We also estimated the minimum forest fragment size required to sustain viable populations living under the same 10 threat scenarios, based on critical numbers of K obtained in sensitivity tests, below which the population would be unviable. Our PVAs suggests that hunting has a higher impact on population viability in comparison to threats from the pet trade. Annual losses of adult and young females from hunting had the most detrimental effect on population persistence under all forest fragment sizes. Such hunting pressure is not sustainable for populations living in areas ≤3,460 ha, since these areas may not support populations of ≥84 individuals. The seven largest of the 13 protected areas currently harboring capuchins should be effective at maintaining viable populations in the long term even under the greatest threat scenarios we modeled. Other large forest patches, mainly in the western part of the species distribution, are recommended as priority areas for protection to increase the chances of capuchins' survival for the long term. In addition, forest fragments of ≤782.8 ha cannot maintain viable populations, even when there are no threats from hunting or from captures for the pet trade. Increased law enforcement is necessary to prevent the hunting and capture of capuchins, especially within larger forest fragments. Am. J. Primatol. 78

  6. The effect of life-history variation on the population size structure of a rocky intertidal snail ( Littorina sitkana)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rochette, Rémy; Dunmall, Karen; Dill, Lawrence M.

    2003-03-01

    On wave-sheltered shores of the northeastern Pacific, the population size structure of Littorina sitkana varies with intertidal height, as larger snails are mostly found only in the upper intertidal. This pattern has been attributed to high predation rates by crabs (and perhaps fish) on large snails inhabiting low-intertidal areas; i.e., large snails are presumed to be rare there simply because predators kill them. In this study we investigate the hypothesis that predation contributes to the shore-level size gradient displayed by L. sitkana by selecting for (or inducing) earlier sexual maturation and reduced somatic growth in low-shore snails relative to high-shore individuals. In the first part of our study, we carried out laboratory dissections, field experiments (mark-release-recapture and caging), and field surveys on a wave-protected shore in Bamfield Inlet, Barkley Sound (British Columbia, Canada). The principal results were: (1) adult survivorship was greater at higher, than at lower, intertidal level, (2) snails displayed a preference for their shore level of origin, (3) immature adults from the high intertidal displayed greater rates of somatic growth relative to immature adults from the low intertidal, and (4) low-shore snails matured at a smaller size than high-shore individuals. In the second part of the study, a large-scale survey showed intra-specific variation in size at sexual maturity (point 4 above) to be relatively consistent over time (winter of 1999 and 2001 for snails from our main study site) and space (13 different sites in winter 2001), although the magnitude of these differences varied greatly from shore to shore. Our results indicate that L. sitkana individuals inhabiting upper and lower parts of their intertidal range allocate resources differently to somatic and gonadal growth, an intra-specific difference that is best interpreted as a response to spatial and size-dependent variation in predation pressure. Taken together, results of

  7. Sexual selection has minimal impact on effective population sizes in species with high rates of random offspring mortality: an empirical demonstration using fitness distributions

    PubMed Central

    Pischedda, Alison; Friberg, Urban; Stewart, Andrew D.; Miller, Paige M.; Rice, William R.

    2015-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics that influences the rate of loss of genetic diversity. Sexual selection has the potential to reduce Ne by causing the sex-specific distributions of individuals that successfully reproduce to diverge. To empirically estimate the effect of sexual selection on Ne, we obtained fitness distributions for males and females from an outbred, laboratory-adapted population of Drosophila melanogaster. We observed strong sexual selection in this population (the variance in male reproductive success was ∼14 times higher than that for females), but found that sexual selection had only a modest effect on Ne, which was 75% of the census size. This occurs because the substantial random offspring mortality in this population diminishes the effects of sexual selection on Ne, a result that necessarily applies to other high fecundity species. The inclusion of this random offspring mortality creates a scaling effect that reduces the variance/mean ratios for male and female reproductive success and causes them to converge. Our results demonstrate that measuring reproductive success without considering offspring mortality can underestimate Ne and overestimate the genetic consequences of sexual selection. Similarly, comparing genetic diversity among different genomic components may fail to detect strong sexual selection. PMID:26374275

  8. The effect of ethnicity and age on palatal size and shape: a study in a northern Chilean healthy population.

    PubMed

    Ferrario, V F; Sforza, C; Colombo, A; Tartaglia, G M; Carvajal, R; Palomino, H

    2000-01-01

    Race and ethnicity influence the form of the human craniofacial complex in varying ways. The aim of the present investigation was to quantify the effects of ethnicity (mestizos, Aymara, non-Aymara), age (adolescents and adults), and sex on the form (size and shape) of the hard palate in normal Native American individuals. From the dental casts of 51 individuals with a complete permanent dentition, the x, y, and z coordinates of several standardized palatal landmarks were obtained with a computerized 3-dimensional digitizer. Palatal landmarks were used to derive a mathematical equation for palatal shape in the frontal and sagittal planes. Palatal width and length, frontal and sagittal heights, sagittal slope, and deviation of the raphe from the midline were also calculated. In the Aymara subjects, there was no effect of sex on palatal size, but there was an effect on palatal shape independent of size, especially with respect to male growth. Indeed, female palates apparently did not change their shape between adolescence and adulthood, while male palates increased their posterior "height." Overall, the 3 ethnic groups appeared to possess similar palatal size, with small significant differences. In the adult individuals, ethnicity did not seem to influence palatal shape. In contrast, adolescent males showed differences: non-Aymara subjects had the "highest" palatal shape, Aymara the "lowest," and mestizos an intermediate position. In conclusion, ethnicity does not seem to be a factor of major variability of human hard palate morphology, at least in the present 3 northern Chilean groups, as already found for dental arch shape. Age probably has a larger effect, particularly in the posterior part of the palate, where the eruption of the second and third molars between adolescence and young adulthood may play a role. A further development of the present investigation may involve larger samples of individuals from different ethnic groups.

  9. Population size, pollination and phenotypic trait selection in Phyteuma spicatum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Anne; Kolb, Annette

    2013-02-01

    Plants in small populations may receive fewer visits, smaller pollen loads or pollen of poorer quality and suffer from reduced reproductive success compared to plants in larger populations. Consequently, pollen limitation of plants in small populations has been suggested to result in the evolution of reduced reliance on pollinators or the enhancement of traits that attract pollinators. The main aim of this study was to experimentally quantify the strength of pollinator-mediated selection on floral display size and flowering phenology in populations of varying size, using the self-incompatible, perennial herb Phyteuma spicatum as study species. We conducted supplementary hand pollinations in six populations (ranging in size between ca. 20-3000 flowering individuals) over two consecutive years and assessed selection gradients (i.e., trait-fitness relationships) in open- and hand-pollinated plants. Our results show that some populations are pollen limited in some years, but, contrary to our expectation, the degree of pollen limitation was not significantly related to population size. We found phenotypic selection for increased inflorescence size (in most populations and in both years), but we obtained no or no strong evidence that selection was pollinator-mediated or that the strength of selection was related to population size. This may have been the result of low statistical power, an inherent problem of studies examining effects of population size that require the inclusion of populations with only few individuals. In addition, given that selection appeared to be spatially and temporally variable, abiotic or biotic factors other than pollinators may have contributed to selection on inflorescence size.

  10. Assessing minimum viable population size: Demography meets population genetics.

    PubMed

    Nunney, L; Campbell, K A

    1993-07-01

    The discussion of a population's minimum viable size provides a focus for the study of ecological and genetic factors that influence the persistence of a threatened population. There are many causes of extinction and the fate of a specific population cannot generally be predicted. This uncertainty has been dealt with in two ways: through stochastic demographic models to determine how to minimize extinction probabilities; and through population genetic theory to determine how best to maintain genetic variation, in the belief that the ability to evolve helps buffer a population against the unknown. Recent work suggests that these two very different approaches lead to very similar conclusions, at least under panmictic conditions. However, defining the ideal spatial distribution for an endangered species remains an important challenge.

  11. Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N ??? 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (???8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ??? 0.5 if N ??? 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ??? 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates. ?? 2009 by The American Ornithologists' Union. All rights reserved.

  12. Repeatability of adaptation in experimental populations of different sizes

    PubMed Central

    Lachapelle, Josianne; Reid, Joshua; Colegrave, Nick

    2015-01-01

    The degree to which evolutionary trajectories and outcomes are repeatable across independent populations depends on the relative contribution of selection, chance and history. Population size has been shown theoretically and empirically to affect the amount of variation that arises among independent populations adapting to the same environment. Here, we measure the contribution of selection, chance and history in different-sized experimental populations of the unicellular alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii adapting to a high salt environment to determine which component of evolution is affected by population size. We find that adaptation to salt is repeatable at the fitness level in medium (Ne = 5 × 104) and large (Ne = 4 × 105) populations because of the large contribution of selection. Adaptation is not repeatable in small (Ne = 5 × 103) populations because of large constraints from history. The threshold between stochastic and deterministic evolution in this case is therefore between effective population sizes of 103 and 104. Our results indicate that diversity across populations is more likely to be maintained if they are small. Experimental outcomes in large populations are likely to be robust and can inform our predictions about outcomes in similar situations. PMID:25788593

  13. Population size and time since island isolation determine genetic diversity loss in insular frog populations.

    PubMed

    Wang, Supen; Zhu, Wei; Gao, Xu; Li, Xianping; Yan, Shaofei; Liu, Xuan; Yang, Ji; Gao, Zengxiang; Li, Yiming

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the factors that contribute to loss of genetic diversity in fragmented populations is crucial for conservation measurements. Land-bridge archipelagoes offer ideal model systems for identifying the long-term effects of these factors on genetic variations in wild populations. In this study, we used nine microsatellite markers to quantify genetic diversity and differentiation of 810 pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus) from 24 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three sites on nearby mainland China and estimated the effects of the island area, population size, time since island isolation, distance to the mainland and distance to the nearest larger island on reduced genetic diversity of insular populations. The mainland populations displayed higher genetic diversity than insular populations. Genetic differentiations and no obvious gene flow were detected among the frog populations on the islands. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that only time since island isolation (square-root-transformed) and population size (log-transformed) significantly contributed to insular genetic diversity. These results suggest that decreased genetic diversity and genetic differentiations among insular populations may have been caused by random genetic drift following isolation by rising sea levels during the Holocene. The results provide strong evidence for a relationship between retained genetic diversity and population size and time since island isolation for pond frogs on the islands, consistent with the prediction of the neutral theory for finite populations. Our study highlights the importance of the size and estimated isolation time of populations in understanding the mechanisms of genetic diversity loss and differentiation in fragmented wild populations.

  14. Rate of language evolution is affected by population size

    PubMed Central

    Bromham, Lindell; Hua, Xia; Fitzpatrick, Thomas G.; Greenhill, Simon J.

    2015-01-01

    The effect of population size on patterns and rates of language evolution is controversial. Do languages with larger speaker populations change faster due to a greater capacity for innovation, or do smaller populations change faster due to more efficient diffusion of innovations? Do smaller populations suffer greater loss of language elements through founder effects or drift, or do languages with more speakers lose features due to a process of simplification? Revealing the influence of population size on the tempo and mode of language evolution not only will clarify underlying mechanisms of language change but also has practical implications for the way that language data are used to reconstruct the history of human cultures. Here, we provide, to our knowledge, the first empirical, statistically robust test of the influence of population size on rates of language evolution, controlling for the evolutionary history of the populations and formally comparing the fit of different models of language evolution. We compare rates of gain and loss of cognate words for basic vocabulary in Polynesian languages, an ideal test case with a well-defined history. We demonstrate that larger populations have higher rates of gain of new words whereas smaller populations have higher rates of word loss. These results show that demographic factors can influence rates of language evolution and that rates of gain and loss are affected differently. These findings are strikingly consistent with general predictions of evolutionary models. PMID:25646448

  15. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism.

    PubMed Central

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M.; Persson, Lennart

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its four defining aspects. We distinguish five classes of effects of cannibalism: (i) regulation of population size; (ii) destabilization resulting in population cycles or chaos; (iii) stabilization by damping population cycles caused by other interactions; (iv) bistability such that, depending on the initial conditions, the population converges to one of two possible stable states; and (v) modification of the population size structure. The same effects of cannibalism may be caused by different combinations of aspects of cannibalism. By contrast, the same combination of aspects may lead to different effects. For particular cannibalistic species, the consequences of cannibalism will depend on the presence and details of the four defining aspects. Empirical evidence for the emerged theory of cannibalism is discussed briefly. The implications of the described dynamic effects of cannibalism are discussed in the context of community structure, making a comparison with the community effects of intraguild predation. PMID:15101690

  16. Large population sizes mitigate negative effects of variable weather conditions on fruit set in two spring woodland orchids.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein; Honnay, Olivier

    2009-08-23

    Global circulation models predict increased climatic variability, which could increase variability in demographic rates and affect long-term population viability. In animal-pollinated species, pollination services, and thus fruit and seed set, may be highly variable among years and sites, and depend on both local environmental conditions and climatic variables. Orchid species may be particularly vulnerable to disruption of their pollination services, as most species depend on pollinators for successful fruit set and because seed germination and seedling recruitment are to some extent dependent on the amount of fruits and seeds produced. Better insights into the factors determining fruit and seed set are therefore indispensable for a better understanding of population dynamics and viability of orchid populations under changing climatic conditions. However, very few studies have investigated spatio-temporal variation in fruit set in orchids. Here, we quantified fruit production in eight populations of the orchid Orchis purpurea that does not reward pollinators and 13 populations of the rewarding Neottia (Listera) ovata during five consecutive years (2002-2006). Fruit production in large populations showed much higher stability than that in small populations and was less affected by extreme weather conditions. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of small orchid populations to an increasingly variable climate through highly unpredictable fruit-set patterns.

  17. The effective population sizes of the anthropoid ancestors of the human-chimpanzee lineage provide insights on the historical biogeography of the great apes.

    PubMed

    Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-01-01

    The recent development of methods that apply coalescent theory to phylogenetic problems has enabled the study of the population-level phenomena that drove the diversification of anthropoid primates. Effective population size, Ne, is one of the main parameters that constitute the theoretical underpinning of these new analytical approaches. For this reason, the ancestral N(e) of selected primate lineages has been thoroughly investigated. However, for some of these lineages, the estimates of ancestral N(e) reported in several studies present significant variation. This is the case for the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees. Moreover, several ancestral anthropoid lineages have been ignored in the studies conducted so far. Because N(e) is fundamental to understand historic species demography, it is a crucial component of a complete description of the historical scenario of primate evolution. It also provides information that is helpful for differentiating between competing biogeographical hypotheses. In this study, the effective population sizes of the anthropoid ancestors of the human-chimp lineage are inferred using data sets of coding and noncoding sequences. A general pattern of a serial decline of population sizes is found between the ancestral lineage of Anthropoidea and that of Homo and Pan. When the theoretical distribution of gene trees was derived from the parametric estimates obtained, it closely corresponded to the empirical frequency of inferred gene trees along the genome. The most abrupt decrease of N(e) was found between the ancestors of all great apes and those of the African great apes alone. This suggests the occurrence of a genetic bottleneck during the evolution of Homininae, which corroborates the origin of African apes from a Eurasian ancestor.

  18. IN-STREAM AND WATERSHED PREDICTORS OF GENETIC DIVERSITY, EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE AND IMMIGRATION ACROSS RIVER-STREAM NETWORKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The influence of spatial processes on population dynamics within river-stream networks is poorly understood. Utilizing spatially explicit analyses of temporal genetic variance, we examined whether persistence of Central Stonerollers (Campostoma anomalum) reflects differences in h...

  19. Genetic structure in a fragmented Northern Hemisphere rainforest: large effective sizes and high connectivity among populations of the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria.

    PubMed

    Hilmo, Olga; Lundemo, Sverre; Holien, Håkon; Stengrundet, Kirsti; Stenøien, Hans K

    2012-07-01

    An extraordinary diversity of epiphytic lichens is found in the boreal rainforest of central Norway, the highest-latitude rainforest in the world. These rainforest relicts are located in ravine systems, and clear cutting has increased the distance between remaining patches. We hypothesized that the relatively small lichen populations in the remaining forest stands have suffered a depletion of genetic diversity through bottlenecks and founder events. To test this hypothesis, we assessed genetic diversity and structure in the populations of the tripartite lichen Lobaria pulmonaria using eight SSR loci. We sampled thalli growing on Picea abies branches and propagules deposited in snow at three localities. Contrary to expectations, we found high genetic diversity in lichen and snow samples, and high effective sizes of the studied populations. Also, limited genetic differentiation between populations, high historical migration rates, and a high proportion of first generation immigrants were estimated, implying high connectivity across distances <30km. Almost all genetic variation was attributed to variation within sites; spatial genetic structures within populations were absent or appeared on small scales (5-10m). The high genetic diversity in the remaining old boreal rainforests shows that even relict forest patches might be suitable for conservation of genetic diversity.

  20. Genetic structure in a fragmented Northern Hemisphere rainforest: large effective sizes and high connectivity among populations of the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria.

    PubMed

    Hilmo, Olga; Lundemo, Sverre; Holien, Håkon; Stengrundet, Kirsti; Stenøien, Hans K

    2012-07-01

    An extraordinary diversity of epiphytic lichens is found in the boreal rainforest of central Norway, the highest-latitude rainforest in the world. These rainforest relicts are located in ravine systems, and clear cutting has increased the distance between remaining patches. We hypothesized that the relatively small lichen populations in the remaining forest stands have suffered a depletion of genetic diversity through bottlenecks and founder events. To test this hypothesis, we assessed genetic diversity and structure in the populations of the tripartite lichen Lobaria pulmonaria using eight SSR loci. We sampled thalli growing on Picea abies branches and propagules deposited in snow at three localities. Contrary to expectations, we found high genetic diversity in lichen and snow samples, and high effective sizes of the studied populations. Also, limited genetic differentiation between populations, high historical migration rates, and a high proportion of first generation immigrants were estimated, implying high connectivity across distances <30km. Almost all genetic variation was attributed to variation within sites; spatial genetic structures within populations were absent or appeared on small scales (5-10m). The high genetic diversity in the remaining old boreal rainforests shows that even relict forest patches might be suitable for conservation of genetic diversity. PMID:22571538

  1. Cohort size and migration in a West Indian population.

    PubMed

    Brittain, A W

    1990-01-01

    The author examines the relationship between cohort size and migration patterns among the population of the French West Indies island of St. Barthelemy. Data show that "for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration rates only slowed after the development of the local tourist industry brought prosperity to the island." PMID:12283449

  2. Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone

    PubMed Central

    Vella, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus’ revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus’ within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus’ within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus’ within Malta’s Fisheries

  3. Y-chromosome analysis confirms highly sex-biased dispersal and suggests a low male effective population size in bonobos (Pan paniscus).

    PubMed

    Eriksson, Jonas; Siedel, Heike; Lukas, Dieter; Kayser, Manfred; Erler, Axel; Hashimoto, Chie; Hohmann, Gottfried; Boesch, Christophe; Vigilant, Linda

    2006-04-01

    Dispersal is a rare event that is difficult to observe in slowly maturing, long-lived wild animal species such as the bonobo. In this study we used sex-linked (mitochondrial DNA sequence and Y-chromosome microsatellite) markers from the same set of individuals to estimate the magnitude of difference in effective dispersal between the sexes and to investigate the long-term demographic history of bonobos. We sampled 34 males from four distinct geographical areas across the bonobo distribution range. As predicted for a female-dispersing species, we found much higher levels of differentiation among local bonobo populations based upon Y-chromosomal than mtDNA genetic variation. Specifically, almost all of the Y-chromosomal variation distinguished populations, while nearly all of the mtDNA variation was shared between populations. Furthermore, genetic distance correlated with geographical distance for mtDNA but not for the Y chromosome. Female bonobos have a much higher migration rate and/or effective population size as compared to males, and the estimate for the mitochondrial TMRCA (time to most recent common ancestor) was approximately 10 times greater than the estimate for the Y chromosome (410,000 vs. 40,000-45,000). For humans the difference is merely a factor of two, suggesting a more stable demographic history in bonobos in comparison to humans.

  4. Effects of sea ice on breeding numbers and clutch size of a high arctic population of the common eider Somateria mollissima

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehlum, Fridtjof

    2012-04-01

    The breeding performance of high-arctic bird populations shows large inter-annual variation that may be attributed to environmental variability, such as the timing of snow melt and break-up of the landfast sea ice that surrounds breeding colonies on islands and along coasts. In the Kongsfjorden area (79°N) on Svalbard, the number of breeding pairs and the average egg clutch size vary considerably among years. In this study, data on breeding performance are presented from 15 years in the period 1981-2000. The results showed that early break-up of sea ice in Kongsfjorden resulted in larger numbers of nests and larger average clutch sizes than late break-up. Also, individual islands with early break-up of sea ice in a particular year had more nests and larger clutch sizes compared to other islands surrounded by sea ice during a longer period in spring. Thus, the inter-annual variation in the break-up of sea ice in the fjord has considerable implications for the inter-annual variability of recruitment to the population. The results indicate that the effects of global warming on changes in the sea ice melting regime in coastal regions are important for the reproductive output of island-nesting eiders.

  5. A high load of non-neutral amino-acid polymorphisms explains high protein diversity despite moderate effective population size in a marine bivalve with sweepstakes reproduction.

    PubMed

    Harrang, Estelle; Lapègue, Sylvie; Morga, Benjamin; Bierne, Nicolas

    2013-02-01

    Marine bivalves show among the greatest allozyme diversity ever reported in Eukaryotes, putting them historically at the heart of the neutralist-selectionist controversy on the maintenance of genetic variation. Although it is now acknowledged that this high diversity is most probably a simple consequence of a large population size, convincing support for this explanation would require a rigorous assessment of the silent nucleotide diversity in natural populations of marine bivalves, which has not yet been done. This study investigated DNA sequence polymorphism in a set of 37 nuclear loci in wild samples of the flat oyster Ostrea edulis. Silent diversity was found to be only moderate (0.7%), and there was no departure from demographic equilibrium under the Wright-Fisher model, suggesting that the effective population size might not be as large as might have been expected. In accordance with allozyme heterozygosity, nonsynonymous diversity was comparatively very high (0.3%), so that the nonsynonymous to silent diversity ratio reached a value rarely observed in any other organism. We estimated that one-quarter of amino acid-changing mutations behave as neutral in O. edulis, and as many as one-third are sufficiently weakly selected to segregate at low frequency in the polymorphism. Finally, we inferred that one oyster is expected to carry more than 4800 non-neutral alleles (or 4.2 cM(-1)). We conclude that a high load of segregating non-neutral amino-acid polymorphisms contributes to high protein diversity in O. edulis. The high fecundity of marine bivalves together with an unpredictable and highly variable success of reproduction and recruitment (sweepstakes reproduction) might produce a greater decoupling between Ne and N than in other organisms with lower fecundities, and we suggest this could explain why a higher segregating load could be maintained for a given silent mutation effective size.

  6. A High Load of Non-neutral Amino-Acid Polymorphisms Explains High Protein Diversity Despite Moderate Effective Population Size in a Marine Bivalve With Sweepstakes Reproduction

    PubMed Central

    Harrang, Estelle; Lapègue, Sylvie; Morga, Benjamin; Bierne, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Marine bivalves show among the greatest allozyme diversity ever reported in Eukaryotes, putting them historically at the heart of the neutralist−selectionist controversy on the maintenance of genetic variation. Although it is now acknowledged that this high diversity is most probably a simple consequence of a large population size, convincing support for this explanation would require a rigorous assessment of the silent nucleotide diversity in natural populations of marine bivalves, which has not yet been done. This study investigated DNA sequence polymorphism in a set of 37 nuclear loci in wild samples of the flat oyster Ostrea edulis. Silent diversity was found to be only moderate (0.7%), and there was no departure from demographic equilibrium under the Wright-Fisher model, suggesting that the effective population size might not be as large as might have been expected. In accordance with allozyme heterozygosity, nonsynonymous diversity was comparatively very high (0.3%), so that the nonsynonymous to silent diversity ratio reached a value rarely observed in any other organism. We estimated that one-quarter of amino acid-changing mutations behave as neutral in O. edulis, and as many as one-third are sufficiently weakly selected to segregate at low frequency in the polymorphism. Finally, we inferred that one oyster is expected to carry more than 4800 non-neutral alleles (or 4.2 cM−1). We conclude that a high load of segregating non-neutral amino-acid polymorphisms contributes to high protein diversity in O. edulis. The high fecundity of marine bivalves together with an unpredictable and highly variable success of reproduction and recruitment (sweepstakes reproduction) might produce a greater decoupling between Ne and N than in other organisms with lower fecundities, and we suggest this could explain why a higher segregating load could be maintained for a given silent mutation effective size. PMID:23390609

  7. Effects of nano-void density, size and spatial population on thermal conductivity: a case study of GaN crystal.

    PubMed

    Zhou, X W; Jones, R E

    2012-08-15

    The thermal conductivity of a crystal is sensitive to the presence of surfaces and nanoscale defects. While this opens tremendous opportunities to tailor thermal conductivity, true 'phonon engineering' of nanocrystals for a specific electronic or thermoelectric application can only be achieved when the dependence of thermal conductivity on the defect density, size and spatial population is understood and quantified. Unfortunately, experimental studies of the effects of nanoscale defects are quite challenging. While molecular dynamics simulations are effective in calculating thermal conductivity, the defect density range that can be explored with feasible computing resources is unrealistically high. As a result, previous work has not generated a fully detailed understanding of the dependence of thermal conductivity on nanoscale defects. Using GaN as an example, we have combined a physically motivated analytical model and highly converged large-scale molecular dynamics simulations to study the effects of defects on thermal conductivity. An analytical expression for thermal conductivity as a function of void density, size, and population has been derived and corroborated with the model, simulations, and experiments.

  8. Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

    PubMed Central

    Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has

  9. Discreteness effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-05-01

    We analyse numerically the effects of small population size in the initial transient regime of a simple example population dynamics. These effects play an important role for the numerical determination of large deviation functions of additive observables for stochastic processes. A method commonly used in order to determine such functions is the so-called cloning algorithm which in its non-constant population version essentially reduces to the determination of the growth rate of a population, averaged over many realizations of the dynamics. However, the averaging of populations is highly dependent not only on the number of realizations of the population dynamics, and on the initial population size but also on the cut-off time (or population) considered to stop their numerical evolution. This may result in an over-influence of discreteness effects at initial times, caused by small population size. We overcome these effects by introducing a (realization-dependent) time delay in the evolution of populations, additional to the discarding of the initial transient regime of the population growth where these discreteness effects are strong. We show that the improvement in the estimation of the large deviation function comes precisely from these two main contributions.

  10. Population size and time since island isolation determine genetic diversity loss in insular frog populations.

    PubMed

    Wang, Supen; Zhu, Wei; Gao, Xu; Li, Xianping; Yan, Shaofei; Liu, Xuan; Yang, Ji; Gao, Zengxiang; Li, Yiming

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the factors that contribute to loss of genetic diversity in fragmented populations is crucial for conservation measurements. Land-bridge archipelagoes offer ideal model systems for identifying the long-term effects of these factors on genetic variations in wild populations. In this study, we used nine microsatellite markers to quantify genetic diversity and differentiation of 810 pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus) from 24 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three sites on nearby mainland China and estimated the effects of the island area, population size, time since island isolation, distance to the mainland and distance to the nearest larger island on reduced genetic diversity of insular populations. The mainland populations displayed higher genetic diversity than insular populations. Genetic differentiations and no obvious gene flow were detected among the frog populations on the islands. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that only time since island isolation (square-root-transformed) and population size (log-transformed) significantly contributed to insular genetic diversity. These results suggest that decreased genetic diversity and genetic differentiations among insular populations may have been caused by random genetic drift following isolation by rising sea levels during the Holocene. The results provide strong evidence for a relationship between retained genetic diversity and population size and time since island isolation for pond frogs on the islands, consistent with the prediction of the neutral theory for finite populations. Our study highlights the importance of the size and estimated isolation time of populations in understanding the mechanisms of genetic diversity loss and differentiation in fragmented wild populations. PMID:24351057

  11. Recent divergences and size decreases of eastern gorilla populations.

    PubMed

    Roy, Justin; Arandjelovic, Mimi; Bradley, Brenda J; Guschanski, Katerina; Stephens, Colleen R; Bucknell, Dan; Cirhuza, Henry; Kusamba, Chifundera; Kyungu, Jean Claude; Smith, Vince; Robbins, Martha M; Vigilant, Linda

    2014-11-01

    Compared with other African apes, eastern gorillas (Gorilla beringei) have been little studied genetically. We used analysis of autosomal DNA genotypes obtained from non-invasively collected faecal samples to estimate the evolutionary histories of the two extant mountain gorilla populations and the closely related eastern lowland gorillas. Our results suggest that eastern lowland gorillas and mountain gorillas split beginning some 10 000 years ago, followed 5000 years ago by the split of the two mountain gorilla populations of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park and the Virungas Massif. All three populations have decreased in effective population size, with particularly substantial 10-fold decreases for the mountain gorillas. These dynamics probably reflect responses to habitat changes resulting from climate fluctuations over the past 20 000 years as well as increasing human influence in this densely populated region in the last several thousand years.

  12. Recent divergences and size decreases of eastern gorilla populations

    PubMed Central

    Roy, Justin; Arandjelovic, Mimi; Bradley, Brenda J.; Guschanski, Katerina; Stephens, Colleen R.; Bucknell, Dan; Cirhuza, Henry; Kusamba, Chifundera; Kyungu, Jean Claude; Smith, Vince; Robbins, Martha M.; Vigilant, Linda

    2014-01-01

    Compared with other African apes, eastern gorillas (Gorilla beringei) have been little studied genetically. We used analysis of autosomal DNA genotypes obtained from non-invasively collected faecal samples to estimate the evolutionary histories of the two extant mountain gorilla populations and the closely related eastern lowland gorillas. Our results suggest that eastern lowland gorillas and mountain gorillas split beginning some 10 000 years ago, followed 5000 years ago by the split of the two mountain gorilla populations of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park and the Virungas Massif. All three populations have decreased in effective population size, with particularly substantial 10-fold decreases for the mountain gorillas. These dynamics probably reflect responses to habitat changes resulting from climate fluctuations over the past 20 000 years as well as increasing human influence in this densely populated region in the last several thousand years. PMID:25376805

  13. How many seals were there? The global shelf loss during the last glacial maximum and its effect on the size and distribution of grey seal populations.

    PubMed

    Boehme, Lars; Thompson, Dave; Fedak, Mike; Bowen, Don; Hammill, Mike O; Stenson, Garry B

    2012-01-01

    Predicting how marine mammal populations respond to habitat changes will be essential for developing conservation management strategies in the 21st century. Responses to previous environmental change may be informative in the development of predictive models. Here we describe the likely effects of the last ice age on grey seal population size and distribution. We use satellite telemetry data to define grey seal foraging habitat in terms of the temperature and depth ranges exploited by the contemporary populations. We estimate the available extent of such habitat in the North Atlantic at present (between 1.42 · 10(6) km(2) and 2.07 · 10(6) km(2)) and at the last glacial maximum (between 4.74 · 10(4) km(2) and 2.11 · 10(5) km(2)); taking account of glacial and seasonal sea-ice coverage, estimated reductions of sea-level (123 m) and sea surface temperature hind-casts. Most of the extensive continental shelf waters (North Sea, Baltic Sea and Scotian Shelf), currently supporting >95% of grey seals, were unavailable during the last glacial maximum. A combination of lower sea-level and extensive ice-sheets, massively increased seasonal sea-ice coverage and southerly extent of cold water would have pushed grey seals into areas with no significant shelf waters. The habitat during the last glacial maximum might have been as small as 3% of today's extent and grey seal populations may have fallen to similarly low numbers. An alternative scenario involving a major change to a pelagic or bathy-pelagic foraging niche cannot be discounted. However, hooded seals currently dominate that niche and may have excluded grey seals from such habitat. If as seems likely, the grey seal population fell to very low levels it would have remained low for several thousand years before expanding into current habitats over the past 12,000 years or so.

  14. How Many Seals Were There? The Global Shelf Loss during the Last Glacial Maximum and Its Effect on the Size and Distribution of Grey Seal Populations

    PubMed Central

    Boehme, Lars; Thompson, Dave; Fedak, Mike; Bowen, Don; Hammill, Mike O.; Stenson, Garry B.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting how marine mammal populations respond to habitat changes will be essential for developing conservation management strategies in the 21st century. Responses to previous environmental change may be informative in the development of predictive models. Here we describe the likely effects of the last ice age on grey seal population size and distribution. We use satellite telemetry data to define grey seal foraging habitat in terms of the temperature and depth ranges exploited by the contemporary populations. We estimate the available extent of such habitat in the North Atlantic at present (between 1.42·106 km2 and 2.07·106 km2) and at the last glacial maximum (between 4.74·104 km2 and 2.11·105 km2); taking account of glacial and seasonal sea-ice coverage, estimated reductions of sea-level (123 m) and sea surface temperature hind-casts. Most of the extensive continental shelf waters (North Sea, Baltic Sea and Scotian Shelf), currently supporting >95% of grey seals, were unavailable during the last glacial maximum. A combination of lower sea-level and extensive ice-sheets, massively increased seasonal sea-ice coverage and southerly extent of cold water would have pushed grey seals into areas with no significant shelf waters. The habitat during the last glacial maximum might have been as small as 3% of today's extent and grey seal populations may have fallen to similarly low numbers. An alternative scenario involving a major change to a pelagic or bathy-pelagic foraging niche cannot be discounted. However, hooded seals currently dominate that niche and may have excluded grey seals from such habitat. If as seems likely, the grey seal population fell to very low levels it would have remained low for several thousand years before expanding into current habitats over the past 12,000 years or so. PMID:23300843

  15. Effect of delivery method and population size of Trichoderma harzianum on growth response of unrooted chrysanthemum cuttings.

    PubMed

    MacKenzie, A J; Ownley, B H; Starman, T W; Windham, M T

    2000-08-01

    In a previous study, addition of Trichoderma harzianum Rifai isolate T-12 to a propagative medium resulted in improved performance of chrysanthemum cuttings. However, root and shoot growth of one cultivar, 'Dark Bronze Charm', were more responsive to a lower (5 g T-12/kg medium) than higher (25 g T-12/kg medium) rate of fungal propagules, suggesting potential phytotoxicity at higher concentrations. The objectives of this study were to investigate higher rates of T-12 medium amendment for phytotoxicity, and to examine an alternative method of delivering the fungus to the propagative medium in order to obtain a more uniform response from cuttings. Isolate T-12 was added to the propagative medium as either a powdered peat-bran amendment (0, 5, or 50 g T-12/kg medium) or as alginate prills (80 or 800 g T-12/kg medium). There were no differences among treatments on day seven, but by day 21, shoot fresh weight and heights were significantly greater for plants treated with prills at 800 g T-12/kg medium. Both prill treatments resulted in greater shoot height on day 14 and 21 than all other treatments, which were similar to controls. Amendment with T-12 powder at 50 g/kg increased root length, but 80 g/kg medium added as prills decreased root dry weight compared to the control. The highest rate of T-12 (800 g prills/kg medium) had no effect on root growth. This suggests that moderate, rather than high rates of T-12 are more effective in promoting rooting of unrooted chrysanthemum, and that there is a potential for phytotoxic effects on root growth with higher rates.

  16. Plant genotypic diversity increases population size of a herbivorous insect

    PubMed Central

    Utsumi, Shunsuke; Ando, Yoshino; Craig, Timothy P.; Ohgushi, Takayuki

    2011-01-01

    It is critical to incorporate the process of population dynamics into community genetics studies to identify the mechanisms of the linkage between host plant genetics and associated communities. We studied the effects of plant genotypic diversity of tall goldenrod Solidago altissima on the population dynamics of the aphid Uroleucon nigrotuberculatum. We found genotypic variation in plant resistance to the aphid in our experiments. To determine the impact of plant genotypic diversity on aphid population dynamics, we compared aphid densities under conditions of three treatments: single-genotype plots, mixed-genotype plots and mixed-genotype-with-cages plots. In the latter treatment plants were individually caged to prevent natural enemy attack and aphid movement among plants. The synergistic effects of genotypes on population size were demonstrated by the greater aphid population size in the mixed-genotype treatment than expected from additive effects alone. Two non-exclusive hypotheses are proposed to explain this pattern. First, there is a source–sink relationship among plant genotypes: aphids move from plant genotypes where their reproduction is high to genotypes where their reproduction is low. Second, natural enemy mortality is reduced in mixed plots in a matrix of diverse plant genotypes. PMID:21378084

  17. Molecular demographic history of the annual sunflowers Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris--large effective population sizes and rates of long-term gene flow.

    PubMed

    Strasburg, Jared L; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2008-08-01

    Hybridization between distinct species may lead to introgression of genes across species boundaries, and this pattern can potentially persist for extended periods as long as selection at some loci or genomic regions prevents thorough mixing of gene pools. However, very few reliable estimates of long-term levels of effective migration are available between hybridizing species throughout their history. Accurate estimates of divergence dates and levels of gene flow require data from multiple unlinked loci as well as an analytical framework that can distinguish between lineage sorting and gene flow and incorporate the effects of demographic changes within each species. Here we use sequence data from 18 anonymous nuclear loci in two broadly sympatric sunflower species, Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris, analyzed within an "isolation with migration" framework to make genome-wide estimates of the ages of these two species, long-term rates of gene flow between them, and effective population sizes and historical patterns of population growth. Our results indicate that H. annuus and H. petiolaris are approximately one million years old and have exchanged genes at a surprisingly high rate (long-term N(ef)m estimates of approximately 0.5 in each direction), with somewhat higher rates of introgression from H. annuus into H. petiolaris than vice versa. In addition, each species has undergone dramatic population expansion since divergence, and both species have among the highest levels of genetic diversity reported for flowering plants. Our results provide the most comprehensive estimate to date of long-term patterns of gene flow and historical demography in a nonmodel plant system, and they indicate that species integrity can be maintained even in the face of extensive gene flow over a prolonged period.

  18. Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

    PubMed

    Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

    2010-10-01

    Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive.

  19. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  20. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  1. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  2. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  3. Linkage disequilibrium, persistence of phase, and effective population size in Spanish local beef cattle breeds assessed through a high-density single nucleotide polymorphism chip.

    PubMed

    Cañas-Álvarez, J J; Mouresan, E F; Varona, L; Díaz, C; Molina, A; Baro, J A; Altarriba, J; Carabaño, M J; Casellas, J; Piedrafita, J

    2016-07-01

    Linkage disequilibrium (LD) and persistence of phase are fundamental approaches for exploring the genetic basis of economically important traits in cattle, including the identification of QTL for genomic selection and the estimation of effective population size () to determine the size of the training populations. In this study, we have used the Illumina BovineHD chip in 168 trios of 7 Spanish beef cattle breeds to obtain an overview of the magnitude of LD and the persistence of LD phase through the physical distance between markers. Also, we estimated the time of divergence based on the persistence of the LD phase and calculated past from LD estimates using different alternatives to define the recombination rate. Estimates of average (as a measure of LD) for adjacent markers were close to 0.52 in the 7 breeds and decreased with the distance between markers, although in long distances, some LD still remained (0.07 and 0.05 for markers 200 kb and 1 Mb apart, respectively). A panel with a lower boundary of 38,000 SNP would be necessary to launch a successful within-breed genomic selection program. Persistence of phase, measured as the pairwise correlations between estimates of in 2 breeds at short distances (10 kb), was in the 0.89 to 0.94 range and decreased from 0.33 to 0.52 to a range of 0.01 to 0.08 when marker distance increased from 200 kb to 1 Mb, respectively. The magnitude of the persistence of phase between the Spanish beef breeds was similar to those found in dairy breeds. For across-breed genomic selection, the size of the SNP panels must be in the range of 50,000 to 83,000 SNP. Estimates of past showed values ranging from 26 to 31 for 1 generation ago in all breeds. The divergence among breeds occurred between 129 and 207 generations ago. The results of this study are relevant for the future implementation of within- and across-breed genomic selection programs in the Spanish beef cattle populations. Our results suggest that a reduced subset of the SNP

  4. NeEstimator v2: re-implementation of software for the estimation of contemporary effective population size (Ne ) from genetic data.

    PubMed

    Do, C; Waples, R S; Peel, D; Macbeth, G M; Tillett, B J; Ovenden, J R

    2014-01-01

    NeEstimator v2 is a completely revised and updated implementation of software that produces estimates of contemporary effective population size, using several different methods and a single input file. NeEstimator v2 includes three single-sample estimators (updated versions of the linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote-excess methods, and a new method based on molecular coancestry), as well as the two-sample (moment-based temporal) method. New features include the following: (i) an improved method for accounting for missing data; (ii) options for screening out rare alleles; (iii) confidence intervals for all methods; (iv) the ability to analyse data sets with large numbers of genetic markers (10 000 or more); (v) options for batch processing large numbers of different data sets, which will facilitate cross-method comparisons using simulated data; and (vi) correction for temporal estimates when individuals sampled are not removed from the population (Plan I sampling). The user is given considerable control over input data and composition, and format of output files. The freely available software has a new JAVA interface and runs under MacOS, Linux and Windows. PMID:23992227

  5. Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Bruce

    2007-01-01

    The present article provides a primer on (a) effect sizes, (b) confidence intervals, and (c) confidence intervals for effect sizes. Additionally, various admonitions for reformed statistical practice are presented. For example, a very important implication of the realization that there are dozens of effect size statistics is that "authors must…

  6. Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method

    PubMed Central

    Maltiel, Rachael; Raftery, Adrian E.; McCormick, Tyler H.; Baraff, Aaron J.

    2015-01-01

    We develop methods for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations from data collected using network-based questions on standard surveys. Such data arise by asking respondents how many people they know in a specific group (e.g. people named Michael, intravenous drug users). The Network Scale up Method (NSUM) is a tool for producing population size estimates using these indirect measures of respondents’ networks. Killworth et al. (1998a,b) proposed maximum likelihood estimators of population size for a fixed effects model in which respondents’ degrees or personal network sizes are treated as fixed. We extend this by treating personal network sizes as random effects, yielding principled statements of uncertainty. This allows us to generalize the model to account for variation in people’s propensity to know people in particular subgroups (barrier effects), such as their tendency to know people like themselves, as well as their lack of awareness of or reluctance to acknowledge their contacts’ group memberships (transmission bias). NSUM estimates also suffer from recall bias, in which respondents tend to underestimate the number of members of larger groups that they know, and conversely for smaller groups. We propose a data-driven adjustment method to deal with this. Our methods perform well in simulation studies, generating improved estimates and calibrated uncertainty intervals, as well as in back estimates of real sample data. We apply them to data from a study of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Curitiba, Brazil. Our results show that when transmission bias is present, external information about its likely extent can greatly improve the estimates. The methods are implemented in the NSUM R package. PMID:26949438

  7. Sample-size requirements for evaluating population size structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vokoun, J.C.; Rabeni, C.F.; Stanovick, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method with an accompanying computer program is described to estimate the number of individuals needed to construct a sample length-frequency with a given accuracy and precision. First, a reference length-frequency assumed to be accurate for a particular sampling gear and collection strategy was constructed. Bootstrap procedures created length-frequencies with increasing sample size that were randomly chosen from the reference data and then were compared with the reference length-frequency by calculating the mean squared difference. Outputs from two species collected with different gears and an artificial even length-frequency are used to describe the characteristics of the method. The relations between the number of individuals used to construct a length-frequency and the similarity to the reference length-frequency followed a negative exponential distribution and showed the importance of using 300-400 individuals whenever possible.

  8. Coexistence of structured populations with size-based prey selection.

    PubMed

    Hartvig, Martin; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-11-01

    Species with a large adult-offspring size ratio and a preferred predator-prey mass ratio undergo ontogenetic trophic niche shift(s) throughout life. Trophic interactions between such species vary throughout life, resulting in different species-level interaction motifs depending on the maximum adult sizes and population size distributions. We explore the assembly and potential for coexistence of small communities where all species experience ontogenetic trophic niche shifts. The life-history of each species is described by a physiologically structured model and species identity is characterised by the trait: size at maturation. We show that a single species can exist in two different states: a 'resource driven state' and a 'cannibalistic state' with a large scope for emergent Allee effects and bistable states. Two species can coexist in two different configurations: in a 'competitive coexistence' state when the ratio between sizes at maturation of the two species is less than a predator-prey mass ratio and the resource level is low to intermediate, or in a 'trophic ladder' state if the ratio of sizes at maturation is larger than the predator-prey mass ratio at all resource levels. While there is a large scope for coexistence of two species, the scope for coexistence of three species is limited and we conclude that further trait differentiation is required for coexistence of more species-rich size-structured communities. PMID:23927897

  9. A Draft De Novo Genome Assembly for the Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) Reveals Evidence for a Rapid Decline in Effective Population Size Beginning in the Late Pleistocene

    PubMed Central

    Halley, Yvette A.; Dowd, Scot E.; Decker, Jared E.; Seabury, Paul M.; Bhattarai, Eric; Johnson, Charles D.; Rollins, Dale; Tizard, Ian R.; Brightsmith, Donald J.; Peterson, Markus J.; Taylor, Jeremy F.; Seabury, Christopher M.

    2014-01-01

    Wild populations of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) have declined across nearly all of their U.S. range, and despite their importance as an experimental wildlife model for ecotoxicology studies, no bobwhite draft genome assembly currently exists. Herein, we present a bobwhite draft de novo genome assembly with annotation, comparative analyses including genome-wide analyses of divergence with the chicken (Gallus gallus) and zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) genomes, and coalescent modeling to reconstruct the demographic history of the bobwhite for comparison to other birds currently in decline (i.e., scarlet macaw; Ara macao). More than 90% of the assembled bobwhite genome was captured within <40,000 final scaffolds (N50 = 45.4 Kb) despite evidence for approximately 3.22 heterozygous polymorphisms per Kb, and three annotation analyses produced evidence for >14,000 unique genes and proteins. Bobwhite analyses of divergence with the chicken and zebra finch genomes revealed many extremely conserved gene sequences, and evidence for lineage-specific divergence of noncoding regions. Coalescent models for reconstructing the demographic history of the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw provided evidence for population bottlenecks which were temporally coincident with human colonization of the New World, the late Pleistocene collapse of the megafauna, and the last glacial maximum. Demographic trends predicted for the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw also were concordant with how opposing natural selection strategies (i.e., skewness in the r-/K-selection continuum) would be expected to shape genome diversity and the effective population sizes in these species, which is directly relevant to future conservation efforts. PMID:24621616

  10. Population size predicts technological complexity in Oceania

    PubMed Central

    Kline, Michelle A.; Boyd, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Much human adaptation depends on the gradual accumulation of culturally transmitted knowledge and technology. Recent models of this process predict that large, well-connected populations will have more diverse and complex tool kits than small, isolated populations. While several examples of the loss of technology in small populations are consistent with this prediction, it found no support in two systematic quantitative tests. Both studies were based on data from continental populations in which contact rates were not available, and therefore these studies do not provide a test of the models. Here, we show that in Oceania, around the time of early European contact, islands with small populations had less complicated marine foraging technology. This finding suggests that explanations of existing cultural variation based on optimality models alone are incomplete because demography plays an important role in generating cumulative cultural adaptation. It also indicates that hominin populations with similar cognitive abilities may leave very different archaeological records, a conclusion that has important implications for our understanding of the origin of anatomically modern humans and their evolved psychology. PMID:20392733

  11. Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

  12. Common Language Effect Size for Multiple Treatment Comparisons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2015-01-01

    Researchers who need to explain treatment effects to laypeople can translate Cohen's effect size (standardized mean difference) to a common language effect size--a probability of a random observation from one population being larger than a random observation from the other population. This common language effect size can be extended to represent…

  13. The effects of predation by wading birds (Ardeidae) and blue crabs ( Callinectes sapidus) on the population size structure of the common mummichog, Fundulus heteroclitus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kneib, R. T.

    1982-02-01

    Preliminary observations suggested that predation by herons and egretsaffected the size structure of a mummichog ( Fundulus heteroclitus) population in Tar Landing Marsh, North Carolina. The hypothesis was tested by placing 300 mummichogs represented equally in three size classes into each half of an enclosed, divided, high marsh pool. Nylon cord was strung in a grid over one side to inhibit predation by wading birds. Although mummichog losses were higher in the side of the pool which was open to bird predation, the same trend in size-specific losses also occurred in the bird-exclusion side. Repeating the experiment after the removal of several blue crabs ( Callinectes sapidus) improved mummichog survivorship and suggested that crabs and not birds were responsible for the fish losses previously observed. In a final experiment, birds were excluded and crabs were removed from one side but added to the other side of the pool. After 24 days losses due to C. sapidus occurred in all mummichog size classes, but size-specific predation by blue crabs produced the highest losses (90%) among the largest (>70 mm total length) fish. Blue crab predation on mummichog populations may influence the community structure of salt marsh infauna and may also function in the movement of marsh production to open coastal waters.

  14. Assessing performance of single-sample molecular genetic methods to estimate effective population size: empirical evidence from the endangered Gochu Asturcelta pig breed.

    PubMed

    Menéndez, Juan; Álvarez, Isabel; Fernandez, Iván; Menéndez-Arias, Nuria A; Goyache, Félix

    2016-07-01

    Estimating effective population size (N e ) using linkage disequilibrium (LD) information (N e( LD ) ) has the operational advantage of using a single sample. However, N e( LD ) estimates assume discrete generations and its performance are constrained by demographic issues. However, such concerns have received little empirical attention so far. The pedigree of the endangered Gochu Asturcelta pig breed includes individuals classified into discrete filial generations and individuals with generations overlap. Up to 780 individuals were typed with a set of 17 microsatellites. Performance of N e( LD ) was compared with N e estimates obtained using genealogical information, molecular coancestry (N e(M) ) and a temporal (two-sample) method (N e( JR ) ). Molecular-based estimates of N e exceeded those obtained using pedigree data. Estimates of N e( LD ) for filial generations F3 and F4 (17.0 and 17.3, respectively) were lower and steadier than those obtained using yearly or biannual samplings. N e( LD ) estimated for samples including generations overlap could only be compared with those obtained for the discrete filial generations when sampling span approached a generation interval and demographic correction for bias was applied. Single-sample N e(M) estimates were lower than their N e( LD ) counterparts. N e(M) estimates are likely to partially reflect the number of founders rather than population size. In any case, estimates of LD and molecular coancestry tend to covary and, therefore, N e(M) and N e( LD ) can hardly be considered independent. Demographically adjusted estimates of N e( JR ) and N e( LD ) took comparable values when: (1) the two samples used for the former were separated by one equivalent to discrete generations in the pedigree and (2) sampling span used for the latter approached a generation interval. Overall, the empirical evidence given in this study suggested that the advantage of using single-sample methods to obtain molecular-based estimates of N e

  15. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  16. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    PubMed

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems. PMID:26382443

  17. Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehmkuhl, John F.

    1984-03-01

    The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

  18. Size Effect in Continuum Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Wei-Yang; James W. Foulk; Huestis, Edwin M.; Connelly, Kevin; Song, Bo; Yang, Nancy Y. C.

    2008-09-01

    The mechanical properties of some materials (Cu, Ni, Ag, etc.) have been shown to develop strong dependence on the geometric dimensions, resulting in a size effect. Several theories have been proposed to model size effects, but have been based on very few experiments conducted at appropriate scales. Some experimental results implied that size effects are caused by increasing strain gradients and have been used to confirm many strain gradient theories. On the other hand, some recent experiments show that a size effect exists in the absence of strain gradients. This report describes a brief analytical and experimental study trying to clarify the material and experimental issues surrounding the most influential size-effect experiments by Fleck et al (1994). This effort is to understand size effects intended to further develop predictive models.

  19. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

    PubMed

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

  20. Bayesian Nonparametric Inference of Population Size Changes from Sequential Genealogies.

    PubMed

    Palacios, Julia A; Wakeley, John; Ramachandran, Sohini

    2015-09-01

    Sophisticated inferential tools coupled with the coalescent model have recently emerged for estimating past population sizes from genomic data. Recent methods that model recombination require small sample sizes, make constraining assumptions about population size changes, and do not report measures of uncertainty for estimates. Here, we develop a Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric method coupled with a sequentially Markov coalescent model that allows accurate inference of population sizes over time from a set of genealogies. In contrast to current methods, our approach considers a broad class of recombination events, including those that do not change local genealogies. We show that our method outperforms recent likelihood-based methods that rely on discretization of the parameter space. We illustrate the application of our method to multiple demographic histories, including population bottlenecks and exponential growth. In simulation, our Bayesian approach produces point estimates four times more accurate than maximum-likelihood estimation (based on the sum of absolute differences between the truth and the estimated values). Further, our method's credible intervals for population size as a function of time cover 90% of true values across multiple demographic scenarios, enabling formal hypothesis testing about population size differences over time. Using genealogies estimated with ARGweaver, we apply our method to European and Yoruban samples from the 1000 Genomes Project and confirm key known aspects of population size history over the past 150,000 years. PMID:26224734

  1. Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

  2. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    PubMed

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. PMID:23865502

  3. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    PubMed

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated.

  4. Asymmetric competition causes multimodal size distributions in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Velázquez, Jorge; Allen, Robert B; Coomes, David A; Eichhorn, Markus P

    2016-01-27

    Plant sizes within populations often exhibit multimodal distributions, even when all individuals are the same age and have experienced identical conditions. To establish the causes of this, we created an individual-based model simulating the growth of trees in a spatially explicit framework, which was parametrized using data from a long-term study of forest stands in New Zealand. First, we demonstrate that asymmetric resource competition is a necessary condition for the formation of multimodal size distributions within cohorts. By contrast, the legacy of small-scale clustering during recruitment is transient and quickly overwhelmed by density-dependent mortality. Complex multi-layered size distributions are generated when established individuals are restricted in the spatial domain within which they can capture resources. The number of modes reveals the effective number of direct competitors, while the separation and spread of modes are influenced by distances among established individuals. Asymmetric competition within local neighbourhoods can therefore generate a range of complex size distributions within even-aged cohorts.

  5. Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

    PubMed

    Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

    2015-09-01

    How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. PMID:26207947

  6. The Relationship between the Proportional Size of the Special Education Population and Academic Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harper, Patricia Kenner

    2013-01-01

    This investigation addressed the hypothesized effects of the proportional size of a district's special education population on the overall student achievement in selected school districts in Texas. The size of a district's special education population (independent variable) was compared to districts' achievement (dependent…

  7. Population size and the nature of genetic load in Gentianella germanica.

    PubMed

    Paland, Susanne; Schmid, Bernhard

    2003-10-01

    Theory predicts a significant relationship between the size of a population and the magnitude and composition of its genetic load, but few natural populations have been investigated. We examined the magnitude of genetic load due to recessive deleterious alleles (GL) both segregating and fixed within Gentianella germanica populations of varying size by selfing and reciprocally crossing plants within and between natural populations according to a partial diallel design and by comparing the performance of the experimental progeny in a common-garden experiment. The results show that GL for total fitness in small populations (fewer than 200 plants) was mainly due to fixed recessive deleterious alleles, whereas GL for total fitness in larger populations (more than 200 plants) appeared to be mainly due to segregating deleterious recessive alleles. The total fitness of selfed plants increased with decreasing population size, indicating some purging of deleterious alleles associated with declining population sizes. The magnitudes of GL due to fixed deleterious alleles in small populations and segregating deleterious alleles in large populations, however, were overall similar, suggesting that purging selection was an insignificant force when compared to genetic drift in determining the magnitude of GL in small natural populations in this species. The results of this study highlight the importance of population size in determining the dynamics of genetic loads of natural populations and are overall in line with a large body of theoretical work indicating that small populations may face higher extinction risks due to the fixation and accumulation of deleterious alleles of small effect.

  8. Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species.

    PubMed

    Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

    2016-01-01

    Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations.

  9. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population.

    PubMed

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M

    2015-07-22

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann's cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann's rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution.

  10. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

    2015-07-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution.

  11. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

    PubMed Central

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

    2015-01-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution. PMID:26197998

  12. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population.

    PubMed

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M

    2015-01-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann's cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann's rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution. PMID:26197998

  13. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    PubMed

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

  14. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

    PubMed Central

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

  15. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    PubMed

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

  16. Bayesian Optimization Algorithm, Population Sizing, and Time to Convergence

    SciTech Connect

    Pelikan, M.; Goldberg, D.E.; Cantu-Paz, E.

    2000-01-19

    This paper analyzes convergence properties of the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA). It settles the BOA into the framework of problem decomposition used frequently in order to model and understand the behavior of simple genetic algorithms. The growth of the population size and the number of generations until convergence with respect to the size of a problem is theoretically analyzed. The theoretical results are supported by a number of experiments.

  17. Effect Size in Clinical Phonology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gierut, Judith A.; Morrisette, Michele L.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to motivate the use of effect size (ES) for single-subject research in clinical phonology, with an eye towards meta-analyses of treatment effects for children with phonological disorders. Standard mean difference (SMD) is introduced and illustrated as one ES well suited to the multiple baseline (MBL) design and…

  18. The elusive minimum viable population size for white sturgeon

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta; Lepla, Ken B.; Van Winkle, Webb; James, Mr Brad; McAdam, Dr Steve

    2010-01-01

    Biological conservation of sturgeon populations is a concern for many species. Those responsible for managing the white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) and similar species are interested in identifying extinction thresholds to avoid. Two thresholds that exist in theory are the minimum viable population size (MVP) and minimum amount of suitable habitat. In this paper, we present both model and empirical estimates of these thresholds. We modified a population viability analysis (PVA) model for white sturgeon to include two new Allee mechanisms. Despite this, PVA-based MVP estimates were unrealistically low compared with empirical estimates unless opportunities for spawning were assumed to be less frequent. PVA results revealed a trade-off between MVP and habitat thresholds; smaller populations persisted in longer river segments and vice versa. Our empirical analyses suggested (1) a MVP range based on population trends from 1,194 to 27,700 individuals, and (2) a MVP estimate of 4,000 individuals based on recruitment. Long-term historical population surveys are needed for more populations to pinpoint an MVP based on trends, whereas the available data were sufficient to estimate MVP based on recruitment. Beyond the MVP, we developed a hierarchical model for population status based on empirical data. Metapopulation support was the most important predictor of population health, followed by the length of free-flowing habitat, with habitat thresholds at 26 and 150 km. Together, these results suggest that habitat and connectivity are important determinants of population status that likely influence the site-specific MVP thresholds.

  19. Estimating total population size for adult female sea turtles: Accounting for non-nesters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, W.L.; Richardson, J.I.; Rees, Alan F.

    2008-01-01

    Assessment of population size and changes therein is important to sea turtle management and population or life history research. Investigators might be interested in testing hypotheses about the effect of current population size or density (number of animals per unit resource) on future population processes. Decision makers might want to determine a level of allowable take of individual turtles of specified life stage. Nevertheless, monitoring most stages of sea turtle life histories is difficult, because obtaining access to individuals is difficult. Although in-water assessments are becoming more common, nesting females and their hatchlings remain the most accessible life stages. In some cases adult females of a given nesting population are sufficiently philopatric that the population itself can be well defined. If a well designed tagging study is conducted on this population, survival, breeding probability, and the size of the nesting population in a given year can be estimated. However, with published statistical methodology the size of the entire breeding population (including those females skipping nesting in that year) cannot be estimated without assuming that each adult female in this population has the same probability of nesting in a given year (even those that had just nested in the previous year). We present a method for estimating the total size of a breeding population (including nesters those skipping nesting) from a tagging study limited to the nesting population, allowing for the probability of nesting in a given year to depend on an individual's nesting status in the previous year (i.e., a Markov process). From this we further develop estimators for rate of growth from year to year in both nesting population and total breeding population, and the proportion of the breeding population that is breeding in a given year. We also discuss assumptions and apply these methods to a breeding population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) from

  20. Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

    2016-01-01

    Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China.

  1. Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

    2016-01-01

    Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China. PMID:26663614

  2. Size-specific sensitivity: Applying a new structured population model

    SciTech Connect

    Easterling, M.R.; Ellner, S.P.; Dixon, P.M.

    2000-03-01

    Matrix population models require the population to be divided into discrete stage classes. In many cases, especially when classes are defined by a continuous variable, such as length or mass, there are no natural breakpoints, and the division is artificial. The authors introduce the integral projection model, which eliminates the need for division into discrete classes, without requiring any additional biological assumptions. Like a traditional matrix model, the integral projection model provides estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, stable size distribution, reproductive values, and sensitivities of the growth rate to changes in vital rates. However, where the matrix model represents the size distributions, reproductive value, and sensitivities as step functions (constant within a stage class), the integral projection model yields smooth curves for each of these as a function of individual size. The authors describe a method for fitting the model to data, and they apply this method to data on an endangered plant species, northern monkshood (Aconitum noveboracense), with individuals classified by stem diameter. The matrix and integral models yield similar estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, but the reproductive values and sensitivities in the matrix model are sensitive to the choice of stage classes. The integral projection model avoids this problem and yields size-specific sensitivities that are not affected by stage duration. These general properties of the integral projection model will make it advantageous for other populations where there is no natural division of individuals into stage classes.

  3. Quantum Size Effects in Nanostructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Ching-Ming

    2006-03-01

    Quantum size effects in metal thin films and metallic clusters are studied using first-principles density functional theory. For metal thin films, Pb(111), Pb(100), Al(110), and Al(111) films up to 30 monolayers are calculated. Significant oscillatory quantum size effects are found on surface energy, work function, and surface relaxations. These oscillations are correlated with the thickness dependence of the energies of confined electrons, which can be properly modelled by an energy-dependent phase shift of the electronic wave function upon reflection at the interface. It is found that a quantitative description of these quantum size effects requires full consideration of the crystal band structure. For metallic clusters, the highly symmetric particles of sizes up 4 nm (Al923, Pb923, and Au309) in the icosahedral (ico), decahedral, and cubotohedral (fcc) structures are calculated. We propose a simple scheme to compare their relative stability and to identify the quantum size effect. In addition, the famous Mackay (fcc-to-ico) transition for metallic clusters is investigated by ab-initio elastic-band method. The transition path can in general be described by an angular variable s. The barriers of the Mackay transition for large Al, Pb, and Au clusters are found to be smaller than the thermal energy at room temperature. Finally CO oxidation on metallic clusters will be presented. A catalytic reaction path for CO oxidation on Au55, Ag55, and Au25Ag30 ico clusters is found with activation energies of less than 0.5 eV. The reaction consists of a peroxolike transition intermediate involving the OOCO configuration. A crucial factor to determine the reaction rate on these clusters is identified as the co-adsorption energy of CO and O2 on these clusters.

  4. Inclusion of psyllium in milk replacer for neonatal calves. 2. Effects on volatile fatty acid concentrations, microbial populations, and gastrointestinal tract size.

    PubMed

    Cannon, S J; Fahey, G C; Pope, L L; Bauer, L L; Wallace, R L; Miller, B L; Drackley, J K

    2010-10-01

    Fermentable fibers such as psyllium increase volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentrations in the lower digestive tract and increase the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) mass of many mammals. We reasoned that psyllium inclusion in milk replacer might produce similar effects in neonatal dairy calves, which could lead to improved growth and health. Male Holstein calves were fed a milk replacer (22% crude protein, 20% fat) either without or with psyllium (1.1% of dry matter, DM) from 2 d through 28 d of age. Milk replacer was reconstituted to 12.5% DM and fed at 12% of calf body weight, adjusted weekly. Water was offered ad libitum but no starter was fed. Three calves per treatment were harvested weekly to sample digesta from the reticulo-rumen, abomasum, jejunum, proximal colon, and distal colon, and to determine length and mass of GIT components. Psyllium in milk replacer increased the proportion of butyrate in reticulo-rumen contents from 2.4 to 3.2% of total but did not affect total VFA concentrations. Total VFA concentrations were very low in the jejunum but psyllium tended to increase total VFA, acetate, and valerate concentrations; valerate accounted for 15.9 and 16.7% of total VFA (molar basis) for control and psyllium calves, respectively. Psyllium increased total VFA concentrations in the proximal and distal colon by 104.4 and 45.6%, respectively, but had little effect on the profile of VFA. Psyllium in milk replacer increased populations of bifidobacteria (from 9.7 to 10.3 log(10) cfu/g of DM) and lactobacilli (from 8.2 to 9.4 log(10) cfu/g of DM) in the reticulo-rumen, but did not affect populations in jejunum or colon. Calves fed psyllium had 12.0% greater total GIT mass and 9.4% greater GIT as a percentage of body weight. Psyllium tended to increase mass of the reticulo-rumen and significantly increased mass of duodenum (34.2%), jejunum (14.5%), and colon (14.6%). Density of intestinal tissues from calves fed psyllium-supplemented milk replacer was 25.9% greater

  5. The roles of spatial pattern and size variation in shaping height inequality of plant population.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shu-Yan; Chen, Zi-long; Guo, Peng; Ding, Chen-Chen; Wang, Yu-xin; Wang, Xiang-tai; Zhang, Jia-Lin; Jia, Peng; Wang, Gang; Xiao, Sa

    2014-02-01

    Game-theoretic models predict that there is an ESS height for the plant population to which all individual plants should converge. To attain this conclusion, the neighborhood factors were assumed to be equal for all the individual plants, and the spatial pattern and size variation of population were left without consideration, which is clearly not right for the scenario of plant competition. We constructed a spatially-explicit, individual-based model to explore the impacts of spatial structure and size variation on individual plant's height and population's height hierarchies under the light competition. The monomorphic equilibrium of height that all the individual plants will converge to only exists for a population growing in a strictly uniform spatial pattern with no size variation. When the spatial pattern of the population is non-uniform or there's size variation among individual plants, the critical heights that individual plants will finally reach are different from each other, and the height inequality at the end of population growth will increase when the population's spatial pattern's degree of deviation from uniform and population's size variation increase. Our results argue strongly for the importance of spatial pattern and neighborhood effects in generating the diversity of population's height growth pattern.

  6. Founding population size of an aquatic invasive species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kalinowski, Steven T.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Guy, Christopher S.; Benjamin Cox,

    2010-01-01

    Non-native species of fish threaten native fishes throughout North America, and in the Rocky Mountains, introduced populations of lake trout threaten native populations of bull trout. Effective management of lake trout and other exotic species require understanding the dynamics of invasion in order to either suppress non-native populations or to prevent their spread. In this study, we used microsatellite genetic data to estimate the number of lake trout that invaded a population of bull trout in Swan Lake, MT. Examination of genetic diversity and allele frequencies within the Swan Lake populations showed that most of the genes in the lake trout population are descended from two founders. This emphasizes the importance of preventing even a few lake trout from colonizing new territory.

  7. Utility of microcosm studies for predicting phylloplane bacterium population sizes in the field.

    PubMed

    Kinkel, L L; Wilson, M; Lindow, S E

    1996-09-01

    Population sizes of two ice nucleation-active strains of Pseudomonas syringae were compared on leaves in controlled environments and in the field to determine the ability of microcosm studies to predict plant habitat preferences in the field. The P. syringae strains investigated were the parental strains of recombinant deletion mutant strains deficient in ice nucleation activity that had been field tested for their ability to control plant frost injury. The population size of the P. syringae strains was measured after inoculation at three field locations on up to 40 of the same plant species that were studied in the growth chamber. There was seldom a significant relationship between the mean population size of a given P. syringae strain incubated under either wet or dry conditions in microcosms and the mean population size which could be recovered from the same species when inoculated in the field. Specifically, on some plant species, the population size recovered from leaves in the field was substantially greater than from that species in a controlled environment, while for other plant species field populations were significantly smaller than those observed under controlled conditions. Population sizes of inoculated P. syringae strains, however, were frequently highly positively correlated with the indigenous bacterial population size on the same plant species in the field, suggesting that the ability of a particular plant species to support introduced bacterial strains is correlated with its ability to support large bacterial populations or that indigenous bacteria enhance the survival of introduced strains. Microcosm studies therefore seem most effective at assessing possible differences between parental and recombinant strains under a given environmental regime but are limited in their ability to predict the specific population sizes or plant habitat preferences of bacteria on leaves under field conditions. PMID:16535405

  8. Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated.

    PubMed

    Brook, Barry W; Traill, Lochran W; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2006-04-01

    Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline.

  9. Antarctic krill population genomics: apparent panmixia, but genome complexity and large population size muddy the water.

    PubMed

    Deagle, Bruce E; Faux, Cassandra; Kawaguchi, So; Meyer, Bettina; Jarman, Simon N

    2015-10-01

    Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) are an incredibly abundant pelagic crustacean which has a wide, but patchy, distribution in the Southern Ocean. Several studies have examined the potential for population genetic structuring in krill, but DNA-based analyses have focused on a limited number of markers and have covered only part of their circum-Antarctic range. We used mitochondrial DNA and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to investigate genetic differences between krill from five sites, including two from East Antarctica. Our mtDNA results show no discernible genetic structuring between sites separated by thousands of kilometres, which is consistent with previous studies. Using standard RAD-seq methodology, we obtained over a billion sequences from >140 krill, and thousands of variable nucleotides were identified at hundreds of loci. However, downstream analysis found that markers with sufficient coverage were primarily from multicopy genomic regions. Careful examination of these data highlights the complexity of the RAD-seq approach in organisms with very large genomes. To characterize the multicopy markers, we recorded sequence counts from variable nucleotide sites rather than the derived genotypes; we also examined a small number of manually curated genotypes. Although these analyses effectively fingerprinted individuals, and uncovered a minor laboratory batch effect, no population structuring was observed. Overall, our results are consistent with panmixia of krill throughout their distribution. This result may indicate ongoing gene flow. However, krill's enormous population size creates substantial panmictic inertia, so genetic differentiation may not occur on an ecologically relevant timescale even if demographically separate populations exist.

  10. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

    PubMed

    Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

    2013-07-01

    The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more

  11. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

    PubMed Central

    Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

    2013-01-01

    1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory

  12. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

    PubMed

    Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

    2013-07-01

    The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more

  13. Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Albers, P.H.

    1976-01-01

    Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

  14. Contrasting dynamics of a mutator allele in asexual populations of differing size.

    PubMed

    Raynes, Yevgeniy; Gazzara, Matthew R; Sniegowski, Paul D

    2012-07-01

    Mutators have been shown to hitchhike in asexual populations when the anticipated beneficial mutation supply rate of the mutator subpopulation, NU(b) (for subpopulation of size N and beneficial mutation rate U(b)) exceeds that of the wild-type subpopulation. Here, we examine the effect of total population size on mutator dynamics in asexual experimental populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Although mutators quickly hitchhike to fixation in smaller populations, mutator fixation requires more and more time as population size increases; this observed delay in mutator hitchhiking is consistent with the expected effect of clonal interference. Interestingly, despite their higher beneficial mutation supply rate, mutators are supplanted by the wild type in very large populations. We postulate that this striking reversal in mutator dynamics is caused by an interaction between clonal interference, the fitness cost of the mutator allele, and infrequent large-effect beneficial mutations in our experimental populations. Our work thus identifies a potential set of circumstances under which mutator hitchhiking can be inhibited in natural asexual populations, despite recent theoretical predictions that such populations should have a net tendency to evolve ever-higher genomic mutation rates.

  15. Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.

    2003-01-01

    Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

  16. Increased Selection Response in Larger Populations. I. Selection for Wing-Tip Height in Drosophila Melanogaster at Three Population Sizes

    PubMed Central

    Weber, K. E.

    1990-01-01

    The effect of population size on selection response was investigated with replicated selection lines of 40, 200 and 1000 selected parents, using Drosophila melanogaster homozygous for the mutant raised. Selection for increased wing-tip height was carried out for 55 generations, with an average selection intensity of 0.6 standard deviation. The rank order of responses in the seven individual lines was significantly in order of population size, and the variance of response among lines showed a significant effect of population size. The final mean responses (selected - controls, +/- standard errors) in the three treatments, in order of increasing population size, were 8.6 +/- 1.8 mils (three small lines), 15.1 +/- 1.3 mils (two medium lines), and 19.8 +/- 1.5 mils (two large lines). The differences between treatments seem to have emerged too rapidly to be the result of mutations, and are probably due mainly to the utilization of existing variation with greater efficiency by selection in larger populations. PMID:2116358

  17. Hamstring graft size and anthropometry in south Indian population

    PubMed Central

    Challa, Supradeeptha; Satyaprasad, Jonnalagedda

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aim The role of anthropometric measurements in the prediction of hamstring autograft size in Indian population remains unclear. Till now, no studies have been done on Indian population. Methods We evaluated 41 consecutive patients (34 males, 7 females) prospectively with anterior cruciate ligament deficiency scheduled for reconstruction using hamstring autograft at our institution between June 2011 and June 2013. Preoperatively we recorded age, gender, height, weight, body mass index, and activity level. Intraoperative measurements of semitendinosus tendon like absolute length, diameter before fashioning the graft and final diameter of the tripled graft using sizing tubes calibrated to 1 mm. Correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) analysis was used. Results As per study there is no correlation between graft diameter, age, sex, weight, activity, and body mass index, of patients. Height of patients correlated to graft diameter in both Indian men and women (p < 0.001). Conclusion Anthropometric measurements such as weight, gender, activity level cannot be used as definitive predictors for the hamstring graft diameter during harvest but height of the patients can be taken as good predictor in Indian population. PMID:26403553

  18. Reconstructing the Phylogenetic History of Long-Term Effective Population Size and Life-History Traits Using Patterns of Amino Acid Replacement in Mitochondrial Genomes of Mammals and Birds

    PubMed Central

    Nabholz, Benoit; Lartillot, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    The nearly neutral theory, which proposes that most mutations are deleterious or close to neutral, predicts that the ratio of nonsynonymous over synonymous substitution rates (dN/dS), and potentially also the ratio of radical over conservative amino acid replacement rates (Kr/Kc), are negatively correlated with effective population size. Previous empirical tests, using life-history traits (LHT) such as body-size or generation-time as proxies for population size, have been consistent with these predictions. This suggests that large-scale phylogenetic reconstructions of dN/dS or Kr/Kc might reveal interesting macroevolutionary patterns in the variation in effective population size among lineages. In this work, we further develop an integrative probabilistic framework for phylogenetic covariance analysis introduced previously, so as to estimate the correlation patterns between dN/dS, Kr/Kc, and three LHT, in mitochondrial genomes of birds and mammals. Kr/Kc displays stronger and more stable correlations with LHT than does dN/dS, which we interpret as a greater robustness of Kr/Kc, compared with dN/dS, the latter being confounded by the high saturation of the synonymous substitution rate in mitochondrial genomes. The correlation of Kr/Kc with LHT was robust when controlling for the potentially confounding effects of nucleotide compositional variation between taxa. The positive correlation of the mitochondrial Kr/Kc with LHT is compatible with previous reports, and with a nearly neutral interpretation, although alternative explanations are also possible. The Kr/Kc model was finally used for reconstructing life-history evolution in birds and mammals. This analysis suggests a fairly large-bodied ancestor in both groups. In birds, life-history evolution seems to have occurred mainly through size reduction in Neoavian birds, whereas in placental mammals, body mass evolution shows disparate trends across subclades. Altogether, our work represents a further step toward a more

  19. Circulating virus load determines the size of bottlenecks in viral populations progressing within a host.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Serafín; Yvon, Michel; Pirolles, Elodie; Garzo, Eliza; Fereres, Alberto; Michalakis, Yannis; Blanc, Stéphane

    2012-01-01

    For any organism, population size, and fluctuations thereof, are of primary importance in determining the forces driving its evolution. This is particularly true for viruses--rapidly evolving entities that form populations with transient and explosive expansions alternating with phases of migration, resulting in strong population bottlenecks and associated founder effects that increase genetic drift. A typical illustration of this pattern is the progression of viral disease within a eukaryotic host, where such demographic fluctuations are a key factor in the emergence of new variants with altered virulence. Viruses initiate replication in one or only a few infection foci, then move through the vasculature to seed secondary infection sites and so invade distant organs and tissues. Founder effects during this within-host colonization might depend on the concentration of infectious units accumulating and circulating in the vasculature, as this represents the infection dose reaching new organs or "territories". Surprisingly, whether or not the easily measurable circulating (plasma) virus load directly drives the size of population bottlenecks during host colonization has not been documented in animal viruses, while in plants the virus load within the sap has never been estimated. Here, we address this important question by monitoring both the virus concentration flowing in host plant sap, and the number of viral genomes founding the population in each successive new leaf. Our results clearly indicate that the concentration of circulating viruses directly determines the size of bottlenecks, which hence controls founder effects and effective population size during disease progression within a host.

  20. Transition Densities and Sample Frequency Spectra of Diffusion Processes with Selection and Variable Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Živković, Daniel; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.; Stephan, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Advances in empirical population genetics have made apparent the need for models that simultaneously account for selection and demography. To address this need, we here study the Wright–Fisher diffusion under selection and variable effective population size. In the case of genic selection and piecewise-constant effective population sizes, we obtain the transition density by extending a recently developed method for computing an accurate spectral representation for a constant population size. Utilizing this extension, we show how to compute the sample frequency spectrum in the presence of genic selection and an arbitrary number of instantaneous changes in the effective population size. We also develop an alternate, efficient algorithm for computing the sample frequency spectrum using a moment-based approach. We apply these methods to answer the following questions: If neutrality is incorrectly assumed when there is selection, what effects does it have on demographic parameter estimation? Can the impact of negative selection be observed in populations that undergo strong exponential growth? PMID:25873633

  1. Circulating virus load determines the size of bottlenecks in viral populations progressing within a host.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Serafín; Yvon, Michel; Pirolles, Elodie; Garzo, Eliza; Fereres, Alberto; Michalakis, Yannis; Blanc, Stéphane

    2012-01-01

    For any organism, population size, and fluctuations thereof, are of primary importance in determining the forces driving its evolution. This is particularly true for viruses--rapidly evolving entities that form populations with transient and explosive expansions alternating with phases of migration, resulting in strong population bottlenecks and associated founder effects that increase genetic drift. A typical illustration of this pattern is the progression of viral disease within a eukaryotic host, where such demographic fluctuations are a key factor in the emergence of new variants with altered virulence. Viruses initiate replication in one or only a few infection foci, then move through the vasculature to seed secondary infection sites and so invade distant organs and tissues. Founder effects during this within-host colonization might depend on the concentration of infectious units accumulating and circulating in the vasculature, as this represents the infection dose reaching new organs or "territories". Surprisingly, whether or not the easily measurable circulating (plasma) virus load directly drives the size of population bottlenecks during host colonization has not been documented in animal viruses, while in plants the virus load within the sap has never been estimated. Here, we address this important question by monitoring both the virus concentration flowing in host plant sap, and the number of viral genomes founding the population in each successive new leaf. Our results clearly indicate that the concentration of circulating viruses directly determines the size of bottlenecks, which hence controls founder effects and effective population size during disease progression within a host. PMID:23133389

  2. When bigger is not better: intraspecific competition for pollination increases with population size in invasive milkweeds.

    PubMed

    Ward, Megan; Johnson, Steven D; Zalucki, Myron P

    2013-04-01

    One of the essential requirements for an introduced plant species to become invasive is an ability to reproduce outside the native range, particularly when initial populations are small. If a reproductive Allee effect is operating, plants in small populations will have reduced reproductive success relative to plants in larger populations. Alternatively, if plants in small populations experience less competition for pollination than those in large populations, they may actually have higher levels of reproductive success than plants in large populations. To resolve this uncertainty, we investigated how the per capita fecundity of plants was affected by population size in three invasive milkweed species. Field surveys of seed production in natural populations of different sizes but similar densities were conducted for three pollinator-dependent invasive species, namely Asclepias curassavica, Gomphocarpus fruticosus and G. physocarpus. Additionally, supplemental hand-pollinations were performed in small and large populations in order to determine whether reproductive output was limited by pollinator activity in these populations. Reproductive Allee effects were not detected in any of the study species. Instead, plants in small populations exhibited remarkably high levels of reproductive output compared to those in large populations. Increased fruit production following supplemental hand-pollinations suggested that the lower reproductive output of naturally pollinated plants in large populations is a consequence of pollen limitation rather than limitation due to abiotic resources. This is consistent with increased intraspecific competition for pollination amongst plants in large populations. It is likely that the invasion of these milkweed species in Australia has been enhanced because plants in small founding populations experience less intraspecific competition for pollinators than those in large populations, and thus have the ability to produce copious amounts of

  3. Population size-structure-dependent fitness and ecosystem consequences in Trinidadian guppies.

    PubMed

    Bassar, Ronald D; Heatherly, Thomas; Marshall, Michael C; Thomas, Steven A; Flecker, Alexander S; Reznick, David N

    2015-07-01

    Decades of theory and recent empirical results have shown that evolutionary, population, community and ecosystem properties are the result of feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. The vast majority of theory and empirical research on these eco-evolutionary feedbacks has focused on interactions among population size and mean traits of populations. However, numbers and mean traits represent only a fraction of the possible feedback dimensions. Populations of many organisms consist of different size classes that differ in their impact on the environment and each other. Moreover, rarely do we know the map of ecological pathways through which changes in numbers or size structure cause evolutionary change. The goal of this study was to test the role of size structure in eco-evolutionary feedbacks of Trinidadian guppies and to begin to build an eco-evolutionary map along this unexplored dimension. We used a factorial experiment in mesocosms wherein we crossed high- and low-predation guppy phenotypes with population size structure. We tested the ability of changes in size structure to generate selection on the demographic rates of guppies using an integral projection model (IPM). To understand how fitness differences among high- and low-predation phenotypes may be generated, we measured the response of the biomass of lower trophic levels and nutrient cycling to the different phenotype and size structure treatments. We found a significant interaction between guppy phenotype and the size structure treatments for absolute fitness. Size structure had a very large effect on invertebrate biomass in the mesocosms, but there was little or no effect of the phenotype. The effect of size structure on algal biomass depended on guppy phenotype, with no difference in algal biomass in populations with more, smaller guppies, but a large decrease in algal biomass in mesocosms with phenotypes adapted to low-predation risk. These results indicate an important role for size

  4. Population size-structure-dependent fitness and ecosystem consequences in Trinidadian guppies.

    PubMed

    Bassar, Ronald D; Heatherly, Thomas; Marshall, Michael C; Thomas, Steven A; Flecker, Alexander S; Reznick, David N

    2015-07-01

    Decades of theory and recent empirical results have shown that evolutionary, population, community and ecosystem properties are the result of feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. The vast majority of theory and empirical research on these eco-evolutionary feedbacks has focused on interactions among population size and mean traits of populations. However, numbers and mean traits represent only a fraction of the possible feedback dimensions. Populations of many organisms consist of different size classes that differ in their impact on the environment and each other. Moreover, rarely do we know the map of ecological pathways through which changes in numbers or size structure cause evolutionary change. The goal of this study was to test the role of size structure in eco-evolutionary feedbacks of Trinidadian guppies and to begin to build an eco-evolutionary map along this unexplored dimension. We used a factorial experiment in mesocosms wherein we crossed high- and low-predation guppy phenotypes with population size structure. We tested the ability of changes in size structure to generate selection on the demographic rates of guppies using an integral projection model (IPM). To understand how fitness differences among high- and low-predation phenotypes may be generated, we measured the response of the biomass of lower trophic levels and nutrient cycling to the different phenotype and size structure treatments. We found a significant interaction between guppy phenotype and the size structure treatments for absolute fitness. Size structure had a very large effect on invertebrate biomass in the mesocosms, but there was little or no effect of the phenotype. The effect of size structure on algal biomass depended on guppy phenotype, with no difference in algal biomass in populations with more, smaller guppies, but a large decrease in algal biomass in mesocosms with phenotypes adapted to low-predation risk. These results indicate an important role for size

  5. Understanding the size growth of massive galaxies through stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreras, Ignacio

    2015-08-01

    The growth of massive galaxies remains an open problem. The observational evidence seems to converge on a two-stage scenario, where a compact massive core is formed during an early, intense burst, followed by a more extended process of mass and size growth at intermediate redshift (z<2). This talk focuses on the latter, exploring the growth of massive galaxies through a detailed analysis of the stellar populations in close pairs, to study their formation history. Two surveys are explored (SHARDS and GAMA), probing the stellar populations of pre-merging systems out to z~1.3, and down to a mass ratio ~1:100. We will compare the results between medium band spectral fitting (SHARDS) and those from a more targeted analysis of line strengths in the GAMA data. The combination of the two datasets provide a unique insight of the growth channel of massive galaxies via mergers.

  6. Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity

    PubMed Central

    Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

    2016-01-01

    Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004) Am Antiq 69:197–214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009) Science 324(5932):1298–1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record. PMID:27044082

  7. Geographical variation of skull size and shape in various populations in the black giant squirrel.

    PubMed

    Endo, Hideki; Kimura, Junpei; Oshida, Tatsuo; Stafford, Brian J; Rerkamnuaychoke, Worawut; Nishida, Takao; Sasaki, Motoki; Hayashida, Akiko; Hayashi, Yoshihiro

    2004-10-01

    We osteometrically examined the skulls of the black giant squirrel (Ratufa bicolor) from three mainland populations (M. Malayan Peninsula, V. South Vietnam, and B. Burma, India and North Thailand) and from two island populations (T. Tioman, and S. Sumatra Islands). The skull in the Malayan peninsula population was significantly smaller than that of the two other mainland populations. It is consistent with Bergmann's rule as shown in the gray-bellied squirrel. The two island populations did not show obvious differences in comparison with the Malayan population in many measurements. In the proportion analysis eliminating the size factor, the differences among populations were not easily confirmed and we concluded that the osteological characters peculiar to each population could not be shown in this species. The first and second principal component scores of M, S, and T populations were intermingled, whereas the V and B populations of V and B were not separated in the chart. We pointed out that the morphological differences were demonstrated between northern and southern groups of the Isthmus of Kra in the mainland populations, and that the two island populations did not show the island-isolation effect in comparison with the M population. The adaptational variation related to feeding and locomotion could not be confirmed among populations of the black giant squirrel as shown in the proportion analysis. PMID:15528851

  8. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  9. Cohort Size and Migration in a West Indian Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brittain, Ann W.

    1990-01-01

    Data from St. Barthelemy (French West Indies) show that, for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration slowed only after development of local tourism brought prosperity to the island. (AF)

  10. Population Size and Cultural Evolution in Nonindustrial Food-Producing Societies

    PubMed Central

    Collard, Mark; Ruttle, April; Buchanan, Briggs; O’Brien, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling work suggests that population size affects cultural evolution such that larger populations can be expected to have richer and more complex cultural repertoires than smaller populations. Empirical tests of this hypothesis, however, have yielded conflicting results. Here, we report a study in which we investigated whether the subsistence toolkits of small-scale food-producers are influenced by population size in the manner the hypothesis predicts. We applied simple linear and standard multiple regression analysis to data from 40 nonindustrial farming and pastoralist groups to test the hypothesis. Results were consistent with predictions of the hypothesis: both the richness and the complexity of the toolkits of the food-producers were positively and significantly influenced by population size in the simple linear regression analyses. The multiple regression analyses demonstrated that these relationships are independent of the effects of risk of resource failure, which is the other main factor that has been found to influence toolkit richness and complexity in nonindustrial groups. Thus, our study strongly suggests that population size influences cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing populations. PMID:24069153

  11. Alu Insertion Polymorphisms and Human Evolution: Evidence for a Larger Population Size in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Stoneking, Mark; Fontius, Jennifer J.; Clifford, Stephanie L.; Soodyall, Himla; Arcot, Santosh S.; Saha, Nilmani; Jenkins, Trefor; Tahir, Mohammad A.; Deininger, Prescott L.; Batzer, Mark A.

    1997-01-01

    Alu insertion polymorphisms (polymorphisms consisting of the presence/absence of an Alu element at a particular chromosomal location) offer several advantages over other nuclear DNA polymorphisms for human evolution studies. First, they are typed by rapid, simple, PCR-based assays; second, they are stable polymorphisms—newly inserted Alu elements rarely undergo deletion; third, the presence of an Alu element represents identity by descent—the probability that different Alu elements would independently insert into the exact same chromosomal location is negligible; and fourth, the ancestral state is known with certainty to be the absence of an Alu element. We report here a study of 8 loci in 1500 individuals from 34 worldwide populations. African populations exhibit the most between-population differentiation, and the population tree is rooted in Africa; moreover, the estimated effective time of separation of African versus non-African populations is 137,000 ± 15,000 years ago, in accordance with other genetic data. However, a principal coordinates analysis indicates that populations from Sahul (Australia and New Guinea) are nearly as close to the hypothetical ancestor as are African populations, suggesting that there was an early expansion of tropical populations of our species. An analysis of heterozygosity versus genetic distance suggests that African populations have had a larger effective population size than non-African populations. Overall, these results support the African origin of modern humans in that an earlier expansion of the ancestors of African populations is indicated. PMID:9371742

  12. Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

    PubMed

    Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. PMID:22268847

  13. Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

    PubMed

    Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species.

  14. When phenology matters: age-size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Thackeray, Stephen J; Winfield, Ian J; Maberly, Stephen C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

    2014-10-22

    Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator-prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator-prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age-size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age-size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator-prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age-size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes. PMID:25165767

  15. Population size and winter distribution of eastern American oystercatchers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, S.C.; Schulte, Shiloh A.; Harrington, B.; Winn, Brad; Bart, J.; Howe, M.

    2005-01-01

    Conservation of the eastern subspecies of the American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus palliatus) is a high priority in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, but previous population estimates were unreliable, information on distribution and habitat associations during winter was incomplete, and methods for long-term monitoring had not been developed prior to this survey. We completed the aerial survey proposed in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan to determine population size, winter distribution, and habitat associations. We conducted coastal aerial surveys from New Jersey to Texas during November 2002 to February 2003. This area comprised the entire wintering range of the eastern American oystercatcher within the United States. Surveys covered all suitable habitat in the United States for the subspecies, partitioned into 3 survey strata: known roost sites, high-use habitat, and inter-coastal tidal habitat. We determined known roost sites from extensive consultation with biologists and local experts in each state. High-use habitat included sand islands, sand spits at inlets, shell rakes, and oyster reefs. Partner organizations conducted ground counts in most states. We used high resolution still photography to determine detection rates for estimates of the number of birds in particular flocks, and we used ground counts to determine detection rates of flocks. Using a combination of ground and aerial counts, we estimated the population of eastern American oystercatchers to be 10,971 +/- 298. Aerial surveys can serve an important management function for shorebirds and possibly other coastal waterbirds by providing population status and trend information across a wide geographic scale.

  16. Sequence diversity under the multispecies coalescent with Yule process and constant population size.

    PubMed

    Heled, Joseph

    2012-03-01

    The study of sequence diversity under phylogenetic models is now classic. Theoretical studies of diversity under the Kingman coalescent appeared shortly after the introduction of the coalescent. In this paper we revisit this topic under the multispecies coalescent, an extension of the single population model to multiple populations. We derive exact formulas for the sequence dissimilarity of two sequences drawn at random under a basic multispecies setup. The multispecies model uses three parameters--the species tree birth rate under the pure birth process (Yule), the species effective population size and the mutation rate. We also discuss the effects of relaxing some of the model assumptions.

  17. Class-Size Effects in Secondary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krassel, Karl Fritjof; Heinesen, Eskil

    2014-01-01

    We analyze class-size effects on academic achievement in secondary school in Denmark exploiting an institutional setting where pupils cannot predict class size prior to enrollment, and where post-enrollment responses aimed at affecting realized class size are unlikely. We identify class-size effects combining a regression discontinuity design with…

  18. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H Charles J; Liu, Xiang-Dong

    2016-04-01

    Buchnera aphidicolais an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii Buchneratiters were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids. PMID:26850304

  19. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H. Charles J.

    2016-01-01

    Buchnera aphidicola is an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii. Buchnera titers were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids. PMID:26850304

  20. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H Charles J; Liu, Xiang-Dong

    2016-04-01

    Buchnera aphidicolais an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii Buchneratiters were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids.

  1. Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

    2016-10-01

    It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture. PMID:27402203

  2. Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

    2016-10-01

    It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture.

  3. Population Regulation in Magellanic Penguins: What Determines Changes in Colony Size?

    PubMed Central

    Pozzi, Luciana M.; Borboroglu, Pablo García; Boersma, P. Dee; Pascual, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼ 600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces) and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north—which were established during the last decades—increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results reaffirm the idea

  4. Population regulation in Magellanic penguins: what determines changes in colony size?

    PubMed

    Pozzi, Luciana M; García Borboroglu, Pablo; Boersma, P Dee; Pascual, Miguel A

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces) and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north--which were established during the last decades--increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results reaffirm the idea that

  5. THE MASSIVE SATELLITE POPULATION OF MILKY-WAY-SIZED GALAXIES

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez-Puebla, Aldo; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Drory, Niv

    2013-08-20

    subhalos should agree with the abundance of massive satellites in all MW-sized hosts, i.e., there is not a missing (massive) satellite problem for the {Lambda}CDM cosmology. However, we confirm that the maximum circular velocity, v{sub max}, of the subhalos of satellites smaller than m{sub *} {approx} 10{sup 8} M{sub Sun} is systematically larger than the v{sub max} inferred from current observational studies of the MW bright dwarf satellites; different from previous works, this conclusion is based on an analysis of the overall population of MW-sized galaxies. Some pieces of evidence suggest that the issue could refer only to satellite dwarfs but not to central dwarfs, then environmental processes associated with dwarfs inside host halos combined with supernova-driven core expansion should be on the basis of the lowering of v{sub max}.

  6. Population size of snowy plovers breeding in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Susan M.; Lyons, James E.; Andres, Brad A.; T-Smith, Elise Elliot; Palacios, Eduardo; Cavitt, John F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Fellows, Suzanne D.; Maty, Kendra; Howe, William H.; Mellink, Eric; Melvin, Stefani; Zimmerman, Tara

    2012-01-01

    Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) may be one of the rarest shorebirds in North America yet a comprehensive assessment of their abundance and distribution has not been completed. During 2007 and 2008, 557 discrete wetlands were surveyed and nine additional large wetland complexes sampled in México and the USA. From these surveys, a population of 23,555 (95% CI = 17,299 – 29,859) breeding Snowy Plovers was estimated. Combining the estimate with information from areas not surveyed, the total North American population was assessed at 25,869 (95% CI = 18,917 – 32,173). Approximately 42% of all breeding Snowy Plovers in North America resided at two sites (Great Salt Lake, Utah, and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge, Oklahoma), and 33% of all these were on wetlands in the Great Basin (including Great Salt Lake). Also, coastal habitats in central and southern Texas supported large numbers of breeding plovers. New breeding sites were discovered in interior deserts and highlands and along the Pacific coast of México; approximately 9% of the North American breeding population occurred in México. Because of uncertainties about effects of climate change and current stresses to breeding habitats, the species should be a management and conservation priority. Periodic monitoring should be undertaken at important sites to ensure high quality habitat is available to support the Snowy Plover population.

  7. Reduction of Salmonella Enteritidis Population Sizes on Almond Kernels with Infrared Heat

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Catalytic infrared (IR) heating was investigated to determine its effect on Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis population sizes on raw almond kernels. Using a double-sided catalytic infrared heating system, a radiation intensity of 5458 W/m2 caused a fast temperature increase at the kernel surf...

  8. Size-dependent mortality induces life-history changes mediated through population dynamical feedbacks.

    PubMed

    van Kooten, Tobias; Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M

    2007-08-01

    The majority of taxa grow significantly during life history, which often leads to individuals of the same species having different ecological roles, depending on their size or life stage. One aspect of life history that changes during ontogeny is mortality. When individual growth and development are resource dependent, changes in mortality can affect the outcome of size-dependent intraspecific resource competition, in turn affecting both life history and population dynamics. We study the outcome of varying size-dependent mortality on two life-history types, one that feeds on the same resource throughout life history and another that can alternatively cannibalize smaller conspecifics. Compensatory responses in the life history dampen the effect of certain types of size-dependent mortality, while other types of mortality lead to dramatic changes in life history and population dynamics, including population (de-)stabilization, and the growth of cannibalistic giants. These responses differ strongly among the two life-history types. Our analysis provides a mechanistic understanding of the population-level effects that come about through the interaction between individual growth and size-dependent mortality, mediated by resource dependence in individual vital rates. PMID:17874376

  9. Assessment of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) clutch size in wild and laboratory populations.

    PubMed

    Davis, Timothy J; Kline, Daniel L; Kaufman, Phillip E

    2016-06-01

    Aedes albopictus (Skuse) is an invasive mosquito species found across the southern U.S. with range expansion into many northern states. Intra- and interspecific larval competition have been evaluated for Ae. albopictus with respect to subsequent adult size, immature and adult survivability, and its capacity to vector pathogens as an adult. However, limited data are available on egg production as related to larval rearing conditions. Because Ae. albopictus is a container-inhabiting mosquito that oviposits in resource-limited habitats, it is found under variable density-dependent conditions. Therefore, we examined the impact of specific rearing conditions on Ae. albopictus clutch size and adult body size; comparing the egg production values and wing lengths from known developmental densities to those from field-collected populations. Field populations varied significantly among collection sites in mean clutch size (23 to 46). These clutch sizes were comparable to the mean clutch sizes of females reared at the larval densities of nine (20 eggs) and three (53 eggs) larvae per 3 ml of water in the laboratory. Field populations experienced density-dependent effects impacting adult mosquito size. Mosquitoes from the four sample sites had mean wing lengths of 1.99, 2.47, 2.51, and 2.54 mm, which were less than the mean wing length of mosquitoes reared at larval densities of three larvae per 3 ml of water (2.57 mm). PMID:27232119

  10. Cavitation erosion size scale effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rao, P. V.; Buckley, D. H.

    1984-01-01

    Size scaling in cavitation erosion is a major problem confronting the design engineers of modern high speed machinery. An overview and erosion data analysis presented in this paper indicate that the size scale exponent n in the erosion rate relationship as a function of the size or diameter can vary from 1.7 to 4.9 depending on the type of device used. There is, however, a general agreement as to the values of n if the correlations are made with constant cavitation number.

  11. Rapid population divergence in thermal reaction norms for an invading species: breaking the temperature-size rule.

    PubMed

    Kingsolver, J G; Massie, K R; Ragland, G J; Smith, M H

    2007-05-01

    The temperature-size rule is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in which higher temperature during development results in a smaller adult body size (i.e. a thermal reaction norm with negative slope). Examples and exceptions to the rule are known in multiple groups of organisms, but rapid population differentiation in the temperature-size rule has not been explored. Here we examine the genetic and parental contributions to population differentiation in thermal reaction norms for size, development time and survival in the Cabbage White Butterfly Pieris rapae, for two geographical populations that have likely diverged within the past 150 years. We used split-sibship experiments with two temperature treatments (warm and cool) for P. rapae from Chapel Hill, NC, and from Seattle, WA. Mixed-effect model analyses demonstrate significant genetic differences between NC and WA populations for adult size and for thermal reaction norms for size. Mean adult mass was 12-24% greater in NC than in WA populations for both temperature treatments; mean size was unaffected or decreased with temperature (the temperature-size rule) for the WA population, but size increased with temperature for the NC population. Our study shows that the temperature-size rule and related thermal reaction norms can evolve rapidly within species in natural field conditions. Rapid evolutionary divergence argues against the existence of a simple, general mechanistic constraint as the underlying cause of the temperature-size rule.

  12. Effect Sizes in Gifted Education Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gentry, Marcia; Peters, Scott J.

    2009-01-01

    Recent calls for reporting and interpreting effect sizes have been numerous, with the 5th edition of the "Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association" (2001) calling for the inclusion of effect sizes to interpret quantitative findings. Many top journals have required that effect sizes accompany claims of statistical significance.…

  13. Conspecific plant-soil feedback scales with population size in Lobelia siphilitica (Lobeliaceae).

    PubMed

    Hovatter, Stephanie; Blackwood, Christopher B; Case, Andrea L

    2013-12-01

    Plant-soil interactions directly affect plant success in terms of establishment, survival, growth and reproduction. Negative plant-soil feedback on such traits may therefore reduce the density and abundance of plants of a given species at a given site. Furthermore, if conspecific feedback varies among population sites, it could help explain geographic variation in plant population size. We tested for among-site variation in conspecific plant-soil feedback in a greenhouse experiment using seeds and soils from 8 natural populations of Lobelia siphilitica hosting 30-330 plants. The first cohort of seeds was grown on soil collected from each native site, while the second cohort was grown on the soil conditioned by the first. Our goal was to distinguish site-specific effects mediated by biotic and/or abiotic soil properties from those inherent in seed sources. Cohort 1 plants grown from seeds produced in small populations performed better in terms of germination, growth, and survival compared to plants produced in large populations. Plant performance decreased substantially between cohorts, indicating strong negative feedback. Most importantly, the strength of negative feedback scaled linearly (i.e., was less negative) with increasing size of the native plant population, particularly for germination and survival, and was better explained by soil- rather than seed-source effects. Even with a small number of sites, our results suggest that the potential for negative plant-soil feedback varies among populations of L. siphilitica, and that small populations were more susceptible to negative feedback. Conspecific plant-soil feedback may contribute to plant population size variation within a species' native range.

  14. Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Madeline B

    2016-06-01

    An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

  15. Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Madeline B

    2016-06-01

    An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities. PMID:27135657

  16. Diminishing Returns of Population Size in the Rate of RNA Virus Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Miralles, Rosario; Moya, Andrés; Elena, Santiago F.

    2000-01-01

    Whenever an asexual viral population evolves by adapting to new environmental conditions, beneficial mutations, the ultimate cause of adaptation, are randomly produced and then fixed in the population. The larger the population size and the higher the mutation rate, the more beneficial mutations can be produced per unit time. With the usually high mutation rate of RNA viruses and in a large enough population, several beneficial mutations could arise at the same time but in different genetic backgrounds, and if the virus is asexual, they will never be brought together through recombination. Thus, the best of these genotypes must outcompete each other on their way to fixation. This competition among beneficial mutations has the effect of slowing the overall rate of adaptation. This phenomenon is known as clonal interference. Clonal interference predicts a speed limit for adaptation as the population size increases. In the present report, by varying the size of evolving vesicular stomatitis virus populations, we found evidence clearly demonstrating this speed limit and thus indicating that clonal interference might be an important factor modulating the rate of adaptation to an in vitro cell system. Several evolutionary and epidemiological implications of the clonal interference model applied to RNA viruses are discussed. PMID:10729131

  17. Impact of population size on market demand under a market economy.

    PubMed

    Li, Y

    1996-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of the relationship between population size and market demand in China. It is argued that a smaller elasticity of a product is related to a greater impact of the size of population on the consumption of such a product. Greater elasticity reduces the impact of population. The impact of population is also mediated by average salary and salary structure. Salary structure affects prices, and prices affect supply and demand, which affect consumption. In a market-oriented economic system, the impact of population size on market demand affects supply and demand and prices. Current market demand reflects the effect of supply and demand in previous periods. Current population size will affect future market demand through prices and supply elasticity. Population changes are slow, and consumption changes are slow. The slowness of the process of change means there is time to adjust production and distribution in order to achieve stability in market supply. Control of price increases and inflation will promote economic growth, social stability, and improvement in China's socialist market economic system. It is argued that the supply of bicycles is elastic. Despite increased investment, labor, and fixed assets, profits will not grow. However the entertainment industry, as well as education, public welfare, urban utilities, noncommercialized housing, and telephones are less elastic. A large consumer population and a smaller supply elasticity result in high costs of installation, which are made higher by the state monopoly. It is argued that in China it is necessary to regulate certain necessities with less market elasticity in order to be consistent with optimum allocation of resources.

  18. The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

    PubMed

    Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management.

  19. The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

    PubMed

    Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management. PMID:26843935

  20. Cohort Size Effects and Migration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Franklin D.

    1983-01-01

    Explores whether changes in the size of cohorts entering the labor force affected the propensity within the U.S. labor force to migrate and socioeconomic circumstances of migrants at destination within 1965-76. Suggests that a significant reduction in the volume of migration among members of the baby boom cohort was the primary adjustment…

  1. Increased Selection Response in Larger Populations. II. Selection for Ethanol Vapor Resistance in Drosophila Melanogaster at Two Population Sizes

    PubMed Central

    Weber, K. E.; Diggins, L. T.

    1990-01-01

    The effect of large population size on selection response was investigated using Drosophila melanogaster, with four ``small'' lines of 160 selected parents/generation compared to two ``large'' lines of 1600 selected parents/generation. All lines were selected under similar conditions at a selection intensity of approximately 0.55 standard deviations, for 65 generations, for increased ethanol vapor resistance (measured in minutes required to become anesthetized). Two unselected control lines of 320 parents/generation were also maintained. A significant effect of population size was found. The final treatment means and standard errors were: 27.91 +/- 1.28 min (two ``large'' lines); 19.40 +/- 1.54 min (four ``small'' lines); and 4.98 +/- 0.35 min (two control lines). To estimate the mutation rate for the trait, two isogenic lines of about 400 selected parents were selected for 29 generations. The mean increase in additive genetic variance per generation was 0.0009 times the initial environmental variance of the outbred lines. This is comparable to other reported mutation rates. Mutation can explain part of the difference in evolved resistance between treatments, but it appears that even at rather large population sizes, a large difference in long-term response can be obtained in larger outbred lines, from more complete utilization of the initial genetic variation. PMID:2116359

  2. Epidemiological effects of group size variation in social species

    PubMed Central

    Caillaud, Damien; Craft, Meggan E.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2013-01-01

    Contact patterns in group-structured populations determine the course of infectious disease outbreaks. Network-based models have revealed important connections between group-level contact patterns and the dynamics of epidemics, but these models typically ignore heterogeneities in within-group composition. Here, we analyse a flexible mathematical model of disease transmission in a hierarchically structured wildlife population, and find that increased variation in group size reduces the epidemic threshold, making social animal populations susceptible to a broader range of pathogens. Variation in group size also increases the likelihood of an epidemic for mildly transmissible diseases, but can reduce the likelihood and expected size of an epidemic for highly transmissible diseases. Further, we introduce the concept of epidemiological effective group size, which we define to be the group size of a hypothetical population containing groups of identical size that has the same epidemic threshold as an observed population. Using data from the Serengeti Lion Project, we find that pride-living Serengeti lions are epidemiologically comparable to a homogeneous population with up to 20 per cent larger prides. PMID:23576784

  3. Contemporary effective population and metapopulation size (N e and meta-N e): comparison among three salmonids inhabiting a fragmented system and differing in gene flow and its asymmetries.

    PubMed

    Gomez-Uchida, Daniel; Palstra, Friso P; Knight, Thomas W; Ruzzante, Daniel E

    2013-03-01

    We estimated local and metapopulation effective sizes ([Formula: see text] and meta-[Formula: see text]) for three coexisting salmonid species (Salmo salar, Salvelinus fontinalis, Salvelinus alpinus) inhabiting a freshwater system comprising seven interconnected lakes. First, we hypothesized that [Formula: see text] might be inversely related to within-species population divergence as reported in an earlier study (i.e., FST: S. salar> S. fontinalis> S. alpinus). Using the approximate Bayesian computation method implemented in ONeSAMP, we found significant differences in [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) between species, consistent with a hierarchy of adult population sizes ([Formula: see text]). Using another method based on a measure of linkage disequilibrium (LDNE: [Formula: see text]), we found more finite [Formula: see text] values for S. salar than for the other two salmonids, in line with the results above that indicate that S. salar exhibits the lowest [Formula: see text] among the three species. Considering subpopulations as open to migration (i.e., removing putative immigrants) led to only marginal and non-significant changes in [Formula: see text], suggesting that migration may be at equilibrium between genetically similar sources. Second, we hypothesized that meta-[Formula: see text] might be significantly smaller than the sum of local [Formula: see text]s (null model) if gene flow is asymmetric, varies among subpopulations, and is driven by common landscape features such as waterfalls. One 'bottom-up' or numerical approach that explicitly incorporates variable and asymmetric migration rates showed this very pattern, while a number of analytical models provided meta-[Formula: see text] estimates that were not significantly different from the null model or from each other. Our study of three species inhabiting a shared environment highlights the importance and utility of differentiating species-specific and landscape effects, not only on dispersal

  4. Contemporary effective population and metapopulation size (N e and meta-N e): comparison among three salmonids inhabiting a fragmented system and differing in gene flow and its asymmetries.

    PubMed

    Gomez-Uchida, Daniel; Palstra, Friso P; Knight, Thomas W; Ruzzante, Daniel E

    2013-03-01

    We estimated local and metapopulation effective sizes ([Formula: see text] and meta-[Formula: see text]) for three coexisting salmonid species (Salmo salar, Salvelinus fontinalis, Salvelinus alpinus) inhabiting a freshwater system comprising seven interconnected lakes. First, we hypothesized that [Formula: see text] might be inversely related to within-species population divergence as reported in an earlier study (i.e., FST: S. salar> S. fontinalis> S. alpinus). Using the approximate Bayesian computation method implemented in ONeSAMP, we found significant differences in [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) between species, consistent with a hierarchy of adult population sizes ([Formula: see text]). Using another method based on a measure of linkage disequilibrium (LDNE: [Formula: see text]), we found more finite [Formula: see text] values for S. salar than for the other two salmonids, in line with the results above that indicate that S. salar exhibits the lowest [Formula: see text] among the three species. Considering subpopulations as open to migration (i.e., removing putative immigrants) led to only marginal and non-significant changes in [Formula: see text], suggesting that migration may be at equilibrium between genetically similar sources. Second, we hypothesized that meta-[Formula: see text] might be significantly smaller than the sum of local [Formula: see text]s (null model) if gene flow is asymmetric, varies among subpopulations, and is driven by common landscape features such as waterfalls. One 'bottom-up' or numerical approach that explicitly incorporates variable and asymmetric migration rates showed this very pattern, while a number of analytical models provided meta-[Formula: see text] estimates that were not significantly different from the null model or from each other. Our study of three species inhabiting a shared environment highlights the importance and utility of differentiating species-specific and landscape effects, not only on dispersal

  5. Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

  6. Needle Size and Injection Rate Impact Microbubble Contrast Agent Population

    PubMed Central

    Talu, Esra; Powell, Robert L.; Longo, Marjorie L.; Dayton, Paul A.

    2008-01-01

    The most common type of ultrasound contrast agents are encapsulated microbubbles, typically 1–5 microns in diameter. These microbubbles are injected into the bloodstream to provide image enhancement during an ultrasound exam. Due to their compressibility, these microbubbles are inherently sensitive to changes in pressure. For imaging, this is beneficial in that these microbubbles oscillate in an acoustic field and allow imaging systems to detect their response uniquely from tissue. However, this sensitivity also means that microbubbles can be readily destroyed by significant hydrostatic pressure. Injection of these microbubbles through a small-gauge catheter, such as sometimes performed in small animal imaging studies, can result in microbubble destruction. In this manuscript, the effects of microbubble injection through catheters of varying diameter are examined. Our results indicate that the concentration and size distribution of microbubbles can be substantially altered in cases of rapid injection through small needles. PMID:18295967

  7. Genetic factors associated with population size may increase extinction risks and decrease colonization potential in a keystone tropical pine

    PubMed Central

    del Castillo, Rafael F; Trujillo-Argueta, Sonia; Sánchez-Vargas, Nahúm; Newton, Adrian C

    2011-01-01

    Pioneer species are essential for forest regeneration and ecosystem resilience. Pinus chiapensis is an endangered pioneer key species for tropical montane cloud forest regeneration in Mesoamerica. Human activities have severely reduced some P. chiapensis populations, which exhibited a small or null colonization potential suggesting the involvement of genetic factors associated with small populations. We explored the relationships between (i) population genetic diversity (allozymes) and population size, including sampling size effects, (ii) fitness estimates associated with colonization potential (seed viability and seedling performance) in a common environment and population size, and (iii) fitness estimates and observed heterozygosity in populations with sizes spanning five orders of magnitude. All the estimates of genetic diversity and fitness increased significantly with population size. Low fitness was detected in progenies of small populations of disturbed and undisturbed habitats. Progenies with the lowest observed heterozygosity displayed the lowest fitness estimates, which, in turn, increased with heterozygosity, but seed viability peaked at intermediate heterozygosity values suggesting inbreeding and outbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression appears to be the most immediate genetic factor in population decline. Conservation efforts should try to maintain large and genetically diverse populations, enhance gene flow by restoring connectivity between adjacent populations, and avoid genetically distant individuals. PMID:25568006

  8. Do Class Size Effects Differ across Grades?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nandrup, Anne Brink

    2016-01-01

    This paper contributes to the class size literature by analysing whether short-run class size effects are constant across grade levels in compulsory school. Results are based on administrative data on all pupils enrolled in Danish public schools. Identification is based on a government-imposed class size cap that creates exogenous variation in…

  9. Small population size and extremely low levels of genetic diversity in island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus

    PubMed Central

    Furlan, Elise; Stoklosa, J; Griffiths, J; Gust, N; Ellis, R; Huggins, R M; Weeks, A R

    2012-01-01

    Genetic diversity generally underpins population resilience and persistence. Reductions in population size and absence of gene flow can lead to reductions in genetic diversity, reproductive fitness, and a limited ability to adapt to environmental change increasing the risk of extinction. Island populations are typically small and isolated, and as a result, inbreeding and reduced genetic diversity elevate their extinction risk. Two island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus, exist; a naturally occurring population on King Island in Bass Strait and a recently introduced population on Kangaroo Island off the coast of South Australia. Here we assessed the genetic diversity within these two island populations and contrasted these patterns with genetic diversity estimates in areas from which the populations are likely to have been founded. On Kangaroo Island, we also modeled live capture data to determine estimates of population size. Levels of genetic diversity in King Island platypuses are perilously low, with eight of 13 microsatellite loci fixed, likely reflecting their small population size and prolonged isolation. Estimates of heterozygosity detected by microsatellites (HE= 0.032) are among the lowest level of genetic diversity recorded by this method in a naturally outbreeding vertebrate population. In contrast, estimates of genetic diversity on Kangaroo Island are somewhat higher. However, estimates of small population size and the limited founders combined with genetic isolation are likely to lead to further losses of genetic diversity through time for the Kangaroo Island platypus population. Implications for the future of these and similarly isolated or genetically depauperate populations are discussed. PMID:22837830

  10. Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.

    PubMed

    Guillot, Elsa G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Lansing, J Stephen; Sudoyo, Herawati; Cox, Murray P

    2013-01-01

    Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum. PMID:24297223

  11. Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.

    PubMed

    Guillot, Elsa G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Lansing, J Stephen; Sudoyo, Herawati; Cox, Murray P

    2013-01-01

    Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum.

  12. Distribution of a Population of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii among Different Size Classes of Soil Aggregates.

    PubMed

    Mendes, I C; Bottomley, P J

    1998-03-01

    A combination of the plant infection-soil dilution technique (most-probable-number [MPN] technique) and immunofluorescence direct count (IFDC) microscopy was used to examine the effects of three winter cover crop treatments on the distribution of a soil population of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii across different size classes of soil aggregates (<0.25, 0.25 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1.0, 1.0 to 2.0, and 2.0 to 5.0 mm). The aggregates were prepared from a Willamette silt loam soil immediately after harvest of broccoli (September 1995) and before planting and after harvest of sweet corn (June and September 1996, respectively). The summer crops were grown in soil that had been either fallowed or planted with a cover crop of red clover (legume) or triticale (cereal) from September to April. The Rhizobium soil population was heterogeneously distributed across the different size classes of soil aggregates, and the distribution was influenced by cover crop treatment and sampling time. On both September samplings, the smallest size class of aggregates (<0.25 mm) recovered from the red clover plots carried between 30 and 70% of the total nodulating R. leguminosarum population, as estimated by the MPN procedure, while the same aggregate size class from the June sampling carried only approximately 6% of the population. In June, IDFC microscopy revealed that the 1.0- to 2.0-mm size class of aggregates from the red clover treatment carried a significantly greater population density of the successful nodule-occupying serotype, AR18, than did the aggregate size classes of <0.5 mm, and 2 to 5 mm. In September, however, the population profile of AR18 had shifted such that the density was significantly greater in the 0.25- to 0.5-mm size class than in aggregates of <0.25 mm and >1.0 mm. The populations of two other Rhizobium serotypes (AR6 and AS36) followed the same trends of distribution in the June and September samplings. These data indicate the existence of structural microsites

  13. How to control chaotic behaviour and population size with proportional feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liz, Eduardo

    2010-01-01

    We study the control of chaos in one-dimensional discrete maps as they often occur in modelling population dynamics. For managing the population, we seek to suppress any possible chaotic behavior, leading the system to a stable equilibrium. In this Letter, we make a rigorous analysis of the proportional feedback method under certain conditions fulfilled by a wide family of maps. We show that it is possible to stabilize the chaotic dynamics towards a globally stable positive equilibrium, that can be chosen among a broad range of possible values. In particular, the size of the population can be enhanced by control in form of population reduction. This paradoxical phenomenon is known as the hydra effect, and it has important implications in the design of strategies in such areas as fishing, pest management, and conservation biology.

  14. Mangrove propagule size and oil contamination effects: Does size matter?

    PubMed

    Naidoo, Gonasageran

    2016-09-15

    Three mangroves species with differential propagule size, Avicennia marina (2.5±0.3cm), Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (16±2cm) and Rhizophora mucronata (36±3cm), were subjected to oil contamination. In a series of glasshouse and field experiments, the sediment, propagules, leaves and stems were oiled and growth monitored. Oiling of the propagules, leaves, internodes or sediment reduced plant height, leaf number, leaf chlorophyll content index and induced growth abnormalities, leaf abscission and mortality, with effects being greatest in A. marina, intermediate in R. mucronata and least in B. gymnorrhiza. The results suggest that the greater susceptibility of A. marina to oil is due to early shedding of the protective pericarp and rapid root and shoot development after detachment from the parent tree and not to propagule size. After seedling emergence, micromorphological factors such as presence of trichomes, salt glands and thickness of protective barriers influence oil tolerance. PMID:27342901

  15. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

    PubMed Central

    Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  16. Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rauter, Claudia M.

    2010-01-01

    This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

  17. Estimating the Size of the Female Sex Worker Population in Kenya to Inform HIV Prevention Programming

    PubMed Central

    Odek, Willis Omondi; Githuka, George N.; Avery, Lisa; Njoroge, Peter K.; Kasonde, Lombe; Gorgens, Marelize; Kimani, Joshua; Gelmon, Lawrence; Gakii, Gloria; Isac, Shajy; Faran, Emmanuel; Musyoki, Helgar; Maina, William; Blanchard, James F.; Moses, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Background The high burden of HIV infections among female sex workers (FSW) in sub-Saharan Africa has been long recognised, but effective preventive interventions have largely not been taken to scale. We undertook a national geographical mapping exercise in 2011/2012 to assess the locations and population size of FSW in Kenya, to facilitate targeted HIV prevention services for this population. Methods and Findings We used a geographical mapping approach, consisting of interviews with secondary key informants to identify “hot” spots frequented by FSW, their operational dynamics and the estimated numbers of FSW in those spots. This was followed by validation of the estimates through interviews with FSW at each spot identified. The mapping covered Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya, and 50 other major urban centres. In total, 11,609 secondary key informant interviews were conducted to identify FSW spots. Further, a total of 6,360 FSW were interviewed for spot validation purposes. A total of 10,670 spots where FSW congregate were identified. The estimated FSW population in all the towns mapped was 103,298 (range 77,878 to 128, 717). Size estimates in the towns mapped were extended to smaller towns that were not mapped, using a statistical model. The national urban FSW population estimate was 138,420 (range 107, 552 to 169, 288), covering all towns of over 5,000 population. We estimated that approximately 5% of the urban female population of reproductive age in Kenya could be sex workers, which is consistent with previous estimates from other sub-Saharan African countries. Conclusions This study provides the first national level data on the size of the FSW population in Kenya. These data can be used to enhance HIV prevention programme planning and implementation for FSW, to form the basis for impact evaluations, and to improve programme coverage by directing efforts to locations with the greatest need. PMID:24595029

  18. Hazards of explosives dusts: Particle size effects

    SciTech Connect

    Cashdollar, K L; Hertzberg, M; Green, G M

    1992-02-01

    At the request of the Department of Energy, the Bureau of Mines has investigated the hazards of military explosives dispersed as dust clouds in a 20-L test chamber. In this report, the effect of particle size for HMX, HNS, RDX, TATB, and TNT explosives dusts is studied in detail. The explosibility data for these dusts are also compared to those for pure fuel dusts. The data show that all of the sizes of the explosives dusts that were studied were capable of sustaining explosions as dust clouds dispersed in air. The finest sizes (<10 [mu]m) of explosives dusts were less reactive than the intermediate sizes (20 to 60 [mu]m); this is opposite to the particle size effect observed previously for the pure fuel dusts. At the largest sizes studied, the explosives dusts become somewhat less reactive as dispersed dust clouds. The six sizes of the HMX dust were also studied as dust clouds dispersed in nitrogen.

  19. Group selection on population size affects life-history patterns in the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema carpocapsae.

    PubMed

    Bashey, Farrah; Lively, Curtis M

    2009-05-01

    Selection is recognized to operate on multiple levels. In disease organisms, selection among hosts is thought to provide an important counterbalance to selection for faster growth within hosts. We performed three experiments, each selecting for a divergence in group size in the entomopathogenic nematode, Steinernema carpocapsae. These nematodes infect and kill insect larvae, reproduce inside the host carcass, and emerge as infective juveniles. We imposed selection on group size by selecting among hosts for either high or low numbers of emerging nematodes. Our goal was to determine whether this trait could respond to selection at the group level, and if so, to examine what other traits would evolve as correlated responses. One of the three experiments showed a significant response to group selection. In that experiment, the high-selected treatment consistently produced more emerging nematodes per host than the low-selected treatment. In addition, nematodes were larger and they emerged later from hosts in the low-selected lines. Despite small effective population sizes, the effects of inbreeding were small in this experiment. Thus, selection among hosts can be effective, leading to both a direct evolutionary response at the population level, as well as to correlated responses in populational and individual traits.

  20. Computing & Interpreting Effect Sizes in Educational Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Bruce

    2009-01-01

    The present article provides a primer on using effect sizes in research. A small heuristic data set is used in order to make the discussion concrete. Additionally, various admonitions for best practice in reporting and interpreting effect sizes are presented. Among these is the admonition to not use Cohen's benchmarks for "small," "medium," and…

  1. Group Size Effects in Employment Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hillery, Joseph M.; Fugita, Stephen S.

    1975-01-01

    Effects of the number of individuals coacting while taking two standardized motor performance tests were examined. Increases in aptitude scores corresponding to increases in group size were predicted based upon the summation hypothesis of social facilitation theory. Results indicated a group size effect. (Author/BJG)

  2. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

  3. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Daniel D, Bjornlie; van Manen, Frank T.; Michael R, Ebinger; Haroldson, Mark A.; Daniel J, Thompson; Cecily M, Costello

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

  4. Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

  5. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

  6. Division synchrony and the dynamics of microbial populations: a size-specific model.

    PubMed

    Gage, T B; Williams, F M; Horton, J B

    1984-12-01

    A discrete, environmentally coupled, size-specific model of microbial population dynamics in continuous culture is presented. It is mathematically simpler than other models based on similar assumptions and lends itself to numerical and analytic solutions. It displays several phenomena which have been reported in the experimental literature but which are not well understood; specifically, a loose relationship between biomass and numbers (i.e., a time lag between mass growth and cell division) and a critical damping of biomass while numbers continue to oscillate. In addition, the model provides several new predictions: The stable biomass distribution is independent of the environmental factors considered in the model and uniformly distributes the biomass among the size classes. The rate of approach to stability and the frequency of waves through the size distributions are a function of the flow rate and the variance in rate of growth and size at division. The model should provide a useful basis for studying the effects of size specificity on the dynamics of microbial populations cultured in chemostats.

  7. Structural effect of size on interracial friendship

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Siwei; Xie, Yu

    2013-01-01

    Social contexts exert structural effects on individuals’ social relationships, including interracial friendships. In this study, we posit that, net of group composition, total context size has a distinct effect on interracial friendship. Under the assumptions of (i) maximization of preference in choosing a friend, (ii) multidimensionality of preference, and (iii) preference for same-race friends, we conducted analyses using microsimulation that yielded three main findings. First, increased context size decreases the likelihood of forming an interracial friendship. Second, the size effect increases with the number of preference dimensions. Third, the size effect is diluted by noise, i.e., the random component affecting friendship formation. Analysis of actual friendship data among 4,745 American high school students yielded results consistent with the main conclusion that increased context size promotes racial segregation and discourages interracial friendship. PMID:23589848

  8. Structural effect of size on interracial friendship.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Siwei; Xie, Yu

    2013-04-30

    Social contexts exert structural effects on individuals' social relationships, including interracial friendships. In this study, we posit that, net of group composition, total context size has a distinct effect on interracial friendship. Under the assumptions of (i) maximization of preference in choosing a friend, (ii) multidimensionality of preference, and (iii) preference for same-race friends, we conducted analyses using microsimulation that yielded three main findings. First, increased context size decreases the likelihood of forming an interracial friendship. Second, the size effect increases with the number of preference dimensions. Third, the size effect is diluted by noise, i.e., the random component affecting friendship formation. Analysis of actual friendship data among 4,745 American high school students yielded results consistent with the main conclusion that increased context size promotes racial segregation and discourages interracial friendship.

  9. An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

    1999-01-01

    Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

  10. Estimating population size of Pygoscelid Penguins from TM data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Olson, Charles E., Jr.; Schwaller, Mathew R.; Dahmer, Paul A.

    1987-01-01

    An estimate was made toward a continent wide population of penguins. The results indicate that Thematic Mapper data can be used to identify penguin rookeries due to the unique reflectance properties of guano. Strong correlations exist between nesting populations and rookery area occupied by the birds. These correlations allow estimation of the number of nesting pairs in colonies. The success of remote sensing and biometric analyses leads one to believe that a continent wide estimate of penguin populations is possible based on a timely sample employing ground based and remote sensing techniques. Satellite remote sensing along the coastline may well locate previously undiscovered penguin nesting sites, or locate rookeries which have been assumed to exist for over a half century, but never located. Observations which found that penguins are one of the most sensitive elements in the complex of Southern Ocean ecosystems motivated this study.

  11. Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

  12. The Effect of Sample Size on Latent Growth Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamilton, Jennifer; Gagne, Phillip E.; Hancock, Gregory R.

    A Monte Carlo simulation approach was taken to investigate the effect of sample size on a variety of latent growth models. A fully balanced experimental design was implemented, with samples drawn from multivariate normal populations specified to represent 12 unique growth models. The models varied factorially by crossing number of time points,…

  13. Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2006-01-01

    Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population effect size…

  14. Effect Size for Single-Subject Design in Phonological Treatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gierut, Judith A.; Morrisette, Michele L.; Dickinson, Stephanie L.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to document, validate, and corroborate effect size (ES) for single­-subject design in treatment of children with functional phonological disorders; to evaluate potential child-­specific contributing variables relative to ES; and to establish benchmarks for interpretation of ES for the population. Method: Data…

  15. Density-dependent effects on growth, body size, and clutch size in black brant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, J.S.; Lindberg, M.S.; Person, B.T.; Eichholz, M.W.; Herzog, M.P.; Flint, P.L.

    1998-01-01

    We documented gosling size in late summer, adult body size, and clutch size of known-age Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) females nesting on the Tutakoke River colony between 1986 and 1995. During this period, the colony increased from 1,100 to >5,000 nesting pairs. Gosling mass at 30 days of age declined from 764 ?? SE of 13 g and 723 ?? 15 g for males and females, respectively, in the 1986 cohort, to 665 ?? 18 g and 579 ?? 18 g in the 1994 cohort. Gosling size was directly negatively correlated with number of Black Brant broods. We detected no trend in adult body size for individuals from these cohorts; in fact, adults from the 1992 and 1994 cohorts had the largest overall masses. Clutch size increased with age from 3.4 eggs for 2-year-old females to 4.4 eggs for 5-year-old females. Clutch size declined during the study by 0.20 (3-year-old females) to 0.45 (2-year-old females) eggs. Clutch size did not decline between the 1986 and 1990 cohorts for females that were >5 years old. Our results for clutch size and gosling size are similar to those recorded for Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens). Our failure to detect a trend in adult body size, however, differs from the response of other geese to increasing population density. We interpret this difference in effects of density on adult size between Black Brant and other geese as an indication of stronger selection against the smallest individuals in Black Brant relative to other species of geese.

  16. Is more better? Higher sterilization of infected hosts need not result in reduced pest population size.

    PubMed

    Maxin, Daniel; Berec, Luděk; Bingham, Adrienna; Molitor, Denali; Pattyson, Julie

    2015-05-01

    We analyze the effect of sterilization in the infected hosts in several epidemiological models involving infectious diseases that can be transmitted both vertically and horizontally. Sterilizing pathogens can be used as pest control agents by intentionally inoculating the target population, with the goal of reducing or eliminating it completely. Contrary to previous models that did not include vertical transmission we found that the population size at the endemic equilibrium may actually increase with higher levels of sterility. This effect is proved to exist for low to high efficiencies of vertical transmission. On the other hand, if the disease is sexually transmitted and the host reproduction and disease transmission are both consistently mediated by mating, we do not observe such a counter-intuitive effect and the population size in the stable endemic equilibrium is decreasing with higher levels of sterility. We suggest that models of the pest control techniques involving the release of sterilizing pathogens have to carefully consider the routes such pathogens use for transmission.

  17. Estimating the Size of HIV Key Affected Populations in Chongqing, China, Using the Network Scale-Up Method

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Wen; Wu, Guohui; Zhang, Wei; Hladik, Wolfgang; Abdul-Quader, Abu; Bulterys, Marc; Fuller, Serena; Wang, Lu

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the average social network size in the general population and the size of HIV key affected populations (KAPs) in Chongqing municipality using the network scale-up method (NSUM). Methods A general population survey was conducted in 2011 through a multistage random sampling method. Participants aged between 18 and 60 years were recruited. The average social network size (c) was estimated and adjusted by known population method. The size of HIV KAP in Chongqing municipality was estimated using the adjusted c value with adjustment for the transmission effect using the scaled respect factor. Results 3,026 inhabitants of Chongqing agreed to the survey, and 2,957 (97.7%) completed the questionnaire. The adjusted c value was 310. The estimated size of KAP was 28,418(95% Confidence Interval (CI):26,636∼30,201) for female sex workers (FSW), 163,199(95%CI:156,490∼169,908) for clients of FSW, 37,959(95%CI: 34,888∼41,030) for drug users (DU), 14,975(95%CI:13,047∼16,904) for injecting drug users (IDU) and 16,767(95%CI:14,602∼18,932) for men who have sex with men (MSM). The ratio of clients to FSW was 5.74∶1, and IDU accounted for 39.5% of the DU population. The estimates suggest that FSW account for 0.37% of the female population aged 15–49 years in Chongqing, and clients of FSW and MSM represent 2.09% and 0.21% of the male population aged 15–49 years in the city, respectively. Conclusion NSUM provides reasonable population size estimates for FSW, their clients, DU and IDU in Chongqing. However, it is likely to underestimate the population size of MSM even after adjusting for the transmission effect. PMID:23967246

  18. Individual increase in inbreeding allows estimating effective sizes from pedigrees

    PubMed Central

    Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; Cervantes, Isabel; Molina, Antonio; Valera, Mercedes; Goyache, Félix

    2008-01-01

    We present here a simple approach to obtain reliable estimates of the effective population size in real world populations via the computation of the increase in inbreeding for each individual (delta Fi) in a given population. The values of delta Fi are computed as t-root of 1 - (1 - Fi) where Fi is the inbreeding coefficient and t is the equivalent complete generations for each individual. The values of delta F computed for a pre-defined reference subset can be averaged and used to estimate effective size. A standard error of this estimate of Ne can be further computed from the standard deviation of the individual increase in inbreeding. The methodology is demonstrated by applying it to several simulated examples and to a real pedigree in which other methodologies fail when considering reference subpopulations. The main characteristics of the approach and its possible use are discussed both for predictive purposes and for analyzing genealogies. PMID:18558071

  19. Physiological, Behavioral and Maternal Factors That Contribute to Size Variation in Larval Amphibian Populations

    PubMed Central

    Warne, Robin W.; Kardon, Adam; Crespi, Erica J.

    2013-01-01

    Size variance among similarly aged individuals within populations is a pattern common to many organisms that is a result of interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic traits of individuals. While genetic and maternal effects, as well as physiological and behavioral traits have been shown to contribute to size variation in animal populations, teasing apart the influence of such factors on individual growth rates remain a challenge. Furthermore, tracing the effects of these interactions across life stages and in shaping adult phenotypes also requires further exploration. In this study we investigated the relationship between genetics, hatching patterns, behaviors, neuroendocrine stress axis activity and variance in growth and metamorphosis among same-aged larval amphibians. Through parallel experiments we found that in the absence of conspecific interactions, hatch time and to a lesser extent egg clutch identity (i.e. genetics and maternal effects) influenced the propensity for growth and development in individual tadpoles and determined metamorphic traits. Within experimental groups we found that variance in growth rates was associated with size-dependent foraging behaviors and responses to food restriction. We also found an inverse relationship between glucocorticoid (GC) hormone levels and body mass and developmental stage among group-reared tadpoles, which suggests that GC expression plays a role in regulating differing within-population growth trajectories in response to density-dependent conditions. Taken together these findings suggest that factors that influence hatching conditions can have long-term effects on growth and development. These results also raise compelling questions regarding the extent to which maternal and genetic factors influence physiological and behavioral profiles in amphibians. PMID:24143188

  20. Effects of population outcrossing on rotifer fitness

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Outcrossing between populations can exert either positive or negative effects on offspring fitness. Cyclically parthenogenetic rotifers, like other continental zooplankters, show high genetic differentiation despite their high potential for passive dispersal. Within this context, the effects of outcrossing may be relevant in modulating gene flow between populations through selection for or against interpopulation hybrids. Nevertheless, these effects remain practically unexplored in rotifers. Here, the consequences of outcrossing on the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis were investigated. Cross-mating experiments were performed between a reference population and three alternative populations that differed in their genetic distance with regard to the former. Two offspring generations were obtained: F1 and BC ('backcross'). Fitness of the outcrossed offspring was compared with fitness of the offspring of the reference population for both generations and for three different between-population combinations. Four fitness components were measured throughout the rotifer life cycle: the diapausing egg-hatching proportion, clone viability (for the clones originating from diapausing eggs), initial net growth rate R for each viable clone, and the proportion of male-producing clones. Additionally, both the parental fertilisation proportion and a compound fitness measure, integrating the complete life cycle, were estimated. Results In the F1 generation, hybrid vigour was detected for the diapausing egg-hatching proportion, while R was lower in the outcrossed offspring than in the offspring of the reference population. Despite these contrasting results, hybrid vigour was globally observed for the compound measure of fitness. Moreover, there was evidence that this vigour could increase with the genetic differentiation of the outcrossed populations. In the BC generation, the hybrid vigour detected for the egg-hatching proportion in the F1 generation reverted to outbreeding

  1. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634–3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365–16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  2. From intracellular signaling to population oscillations: bridging size- and time-scales in collective behavior

    PubMed Central

    Sgro, Allyson E; Schwab, David J; Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mestler, Troy; Mehta, Pankaj; Gregor, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Collective behavior in cellular populations is coordinated by biochemical signaling networks within individual cells. Connecting the dynamics of these intracellular networks to the population phenomena they control poses a considerable challenge because of network complexity and our limited knowledge of kinetic parameters. However, from physical systems, we know that behavioral changes in the individual constituents of a collectively behaving system occur in a limited number of well-defined classes, and these can be described using simple models. Here, we apply such an approach to the emergence of collective oscillations in cellular populations of the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Through direct tests of our model with quantitative in vivo measurements of single-cell and population signaling dynamics, we show how a simple model can effectively describe a complex molecular signaling network at multiple size and temporal scales. The model predicts novel noise-driven single-cell and population-level signaling phenomena that we then experimentally observe. Our results suggest that like physical systems, collective behavior in biology may be universal and described using simple mathematical models. PMID:25617347

  3. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival.

    PubMed

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; Dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634-3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365-16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  4. Size-at-birth standards for an urban Canadian population.

    PubMed Central

    Blidner, I. N.; McClemont, S.; Anderson, G. D.; Sinclair, J. C.

    1984-01-01

    By random sampling of all births occurring in Hamilton, Ont. over an 18-month period the percentile distributions of the newborn infants' weight, length, and head and chest circumferences were determined. The resulting standards may be used in the clinical evaluation of size for gestational age. The smoothed 50th percentile values for newborns of 40 weeks gestational age were as follows for boys and girls respectively: birth weight 3530 and 3355 g, crown-heel length 52.0 and 51.3 cm, head circumference 35.2 and 34.4 cm, and chest circumference 33.4 and 32.8 cm. The mother's height averaged 160.8 +/- 6.1 cm and her weight before the pregnancy 59.2 +/- 10.5 kg. The prevalence of cigarette smoking during pregnancy was 34.8%. PMID:6692192

  5. Determining asymptotically large population sizes in insect swarms

    PubMed Central

    Puckett, James G.; Ouellette, Nicholas T.

    2014-01-01

    Social animals commonly form aggregates that exhibit emergent collective behaviour, with group dynamics that are distinct from the behaviour of individuals. Simple models can qualitatively reproduce such behaviour, but only with large numbers of individuals. But how rapidly do the collective properties of animal aggregations in nature emerge with group size? Here, we study swarms of Chironomus riparius midges and measure how their statistical properties change as a function of the number of participating individuals. Once the swarms contain order 10 individuals, we find that all statistics saturate and the swarms enter an asymptotic regime. The influence of environmental cues on the swarm morphology decays on a similar scale. Our results provide a strong constraint on how rapidly swarm models must produce collective states. But our findings support the feasibility of using swarms as a design template for multi-agent systems, because self-organized states are possible even with few agents. PMID:25121646

  6. Size scale effect in cavitation erosion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rao, P. V.; Rao, B. C.; Buckley, D. H.

    1982-01-01

    An overview and data analyses pertaining to cavitation erosion size scale effects are presented. The exponents n in the power law relationship are found to vary from 1.7 to 4.9 for venturi and rotating disk devices supporting the values reported in the literature. Suggestions for future studies were made to arrive at further true scale effects.

  7. Accuracy of Four Tooth Size Prediction Methods on Malay Population

    PubMed Central

    Mahmoud, Belal Khaled; Abu Asab, Saifeddin Hamed I.; Taib, Haslina

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To examine the accuracy of Moyers 50%, Tanaka and Johnston, Ling and Wong and Jaroontham and Godfrey methods in predicting the mesio-distal crown width of the permanent canines and premolars (C + P1 + P2) in Malay population. Materials and Methods. The study models of 240 Malay children (120 males and 120 females) aged 14 to 18 years, all free of any signs of dental pathology or anomalies, were measured using a digital caliper accurate to 0.01 mm. The predicted widths (C + P1 + P2) in both arches derived from the tested prediction equations were compared with the actual measured widths. Results. Moyers and Tanaka and Johnston methods showed significant difference between the actual and predicted widths of (C + P1 + P2) for both sexes. Ling and Wong method also showed statistically significant difference for males, however, there was no significant difference for females. Jaroontham and Godfrey method showed statistical significant difference for females, but the male values did not show any significant difference. Conclusion. For male Malay, the method proposed by Jaroontham and Godfrey for male Thai proved to be highly accurate. For female Malay, the method proposed by Ling and Wong for southern Chinese females proved to be highly accurate. PMID:23209918

  8. Understanding the effect size and its measures.

    PubMed

    Ialongo, Cristiano

    2016-01-01

    The evidence based medicine paradigm demands scientific reliability, but modern research seems to overlook it sometimes. The power analysis represents a way to show the meaningfulness of findings, regardless to the emphasized aspect of statistical significance. Within this statistical framework, the estimation of the effect size represents a means to show the relevance of the evidences produced through research. In this regard, this paper presents and discusses the main procedures to estimate the size of an effect with respect to the specific statistical test used for hypothesis testing. Thus, this work can be seen as an introduction and a guide for the reader interested in the use of effect size estimation for its scientific endeavour.

  9. Understanding the effect size and its measures

    PubMed Central

    Ialongo, Cristiano

    2016-01-01

    The evidence based medicine paradigm demands scientific reliability, but modern research seems to overlook it sometimes. The power analysis represents a way to show the meaningfulness of findings, regardless to the emphasized aspect of statistical significance. Within this statistical framework, the estimation of the effect size represents a means to show the relevance of the evidences produced through research. In this regard, this paper presents and discusses the main procedures to estimate the size of an effect with respect to the specific statistical test used for hypothesis testing. Thus, this work can be seen as an introduction and a guide for the reader interested in the use of effect size estimation for its scientific endeavour. PMID:27346958

  10. Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent

  11. The adaptive significance of population differentiation in offspring size of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa

    PubMed Central

    Leips, Jeff; Helen Rodd, F; Travis, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that density-dependent competition influences the evolution of offspring size. We studied two populations of the least killifish (Heterandria formosa) that differ dramatically in population density; these populations are genetically differentiated for offspring size, and females from both populations produce larger offspring when they experience higher social densities. To look at the influences of population of origin and relative body size on competitive ability, we held females from the high-density population at two different densities to create large and small offspring with the same genetic background. We measured the competitive ability of those offspring in mesocosms that contained either pure or mixed population treatments at either high or low density. High density increased competition, which was most evident in greatly reduced individual growth rates. Larger offspring from the high-density population significantly delayed the onset of maturity of fish from the low-density population. From our results, we infer that competitive conditions in nature have contributed to the evolution of genetically based interpopulation differences in offspring size as well as plasticity in offspring size in response to conspecific density. PMID:23610636

  12. Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies.

    PubMed

    Palacios, Julia A; Minin, Vladimir N

    2013-03-01

    Changes in population size influence genetic diversity of the population and, as a result, leave a signature of these changes in individual genomes in the population. We are interested in the inverse problem of reconstructing past population dynamics from genomic data. We start with a standard framework based on the coalescent, a stochastic process that generates genealogies connecting randomly sampled individuals from the population of interest. These genealogies serve as a glue between the population demographic history and genomic sequences. It turns out that only the times of genealogical lineage coalescences contain information about population size dynamics. Viewing these coalescent times as a point process, estimating population size trajectories is equivalent to estimating a conditional intensity of this point process. Therefore, our inverse problem is similar to estimating an inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity function. We demonstrate how recent advances in Gaussian process-based nonparametric inference for Poisson processes can be extended to Bayesian nonparametric estimation of population size dynamics under the coalescent. We compare our Gaussian process (GP) approach to one of the state-of-the-art Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) methods for estimating population trajectories. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our method has better accuracy and precision. Next, we analyze two genealogies reconstructed from real sequences of hepatitis C and human Influenza A viruses. In both cases, we recover more believed aspects of the viral demographic histories than the GMRF approach. We also find that our GP method produces more reasonable uncertainty estimates than the GMRF method.

  13. Population variation in brain size of nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) - local adaptation or environmentally induced variation?

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Most evolutionary studies on the size of brains and different parts of the brain have relied on interspecific comparisons, and have uncovered correlations between brain architecture and various ecological, behavioural and life-history traits. Yet, similar intraspecific studies are rare, despite the fact that they could better determine how selection and phenotypic plasticity influence brain architecture. We investigated the variation in brain size and structure in wild-caught nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) from eight populations, representing marine, lake, and pond habitats, and compared them to data from a previous common garden study from a smaller number of populations. Results Brain size scaled hypo-allometrically with body size, irrespective of population origin, with a common slope of 0.5. Both absolute and relative brain size, as well as relative telencephalon, optic tectum and cerebellum size, differed significantly among the populations. Further, absolute and relative brain sizes were larger in pond than in marine populations, while the telencephalon tended to be larger in marine than in pond populations. These findings are partly incongruent with previous common garden results. A direct comparison between wild and common garden fish from the same populations revealed a habitat-specific effect: pond fish had relatively smaller brains in a controlled environment than in the wild, while marine fish were similar. All brain parts were smaller in the laboratory than in the wild, irrespective of population origin. Conclusion Our results indicate that variation among populations is large, both in terms of brain size and in the size of separate brain parts in wild nine-spined sticklebacks. However, the incongruence between the wild and common garden patterns suggests that much of the population variation found in the wild may be attributable to environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity. Given that the brain is among the most plastic

  14. The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

    PubMed Central

    Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

  15. The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations.

    PubMed

    Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

    2015-07-01

    Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

  16. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  17. Identification of key aerosol populations through their size and composition resolved spectral scattering and absorption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costabile, F.; Barnaba, F.; Angelini, F.; Gobbi, G. P.

    2013-03-01

    Characterizing chemical and physical aerosol properties is important to understand their sources, effects, and feedback mechanisms in the atmosphere. This study proposes a scheme to classify aerosol populations based on their spectral optical properties (absorption and scattering). The scheme is obtained thanks to the outstanding set of information on particle size and composition these properties contain. The spectral variability of the aerosol single scattering albedo (dSSA), and the extinction, scattering and absorption Angstrom exponents (EAE, SAE and AAE, respectively) were observed on the basis of two-year measurements of aerosol optical properties (scattering and absorption coefficients at blue, green and red wavelengths) performed in the suburbs of Rome (Italy). Optical measurements of various aerosol types were coupled to measurements of particle number size distributions and relevant optical properties simulations (Mie theory). These latter allowed the investigation of the role of the particle size and composition in the bulk aerosol properties observed. The combination of simulations and measurements suggested a general "paradigm" built on dSSA, SAE and AAE to optically classify aerosols. The paradigm proved suitable to identify the presence of key aerosol populations, including soot, biomass burning, organics, dust and marine particles. The work highlights that (i) aerosol populations show distinctive combinations of SAE and dSSA times AAE, these variables being linked by a linear inverse relation varying with varying SSA; (ii) fine particles show EAE > 1.5, whilst EAE < 2 is found for both coarse particles and ultrafine soot-rich aerosols; (iii) fine and coarse particles both show SSA > 0.8, whilst ultrafine urban Aitken mode and soot particles show SSA < 0.8. The proposed paradigm agrees with aerosol observations performed during past major field campaigns, this indicating that relations concerning the paradigm have a general validity.

  18. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  19. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  20. Effect Sizes in Cluster-Randomized Designs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedges, Larry V.

    2007-01-01

    Multisite research designs involving cluster randomization are becoming increasingly important in educational and behavioral research. Researchers would like to compute effect size indexes based on the standardized mean difference to compare the results of cluster-randomized studies (and corresponding quasi-experiments) with other studies and to…

  1. Introducing the Mean Absolute Deviation "Effect" Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the use of effect sizes in the analysis of experimental and similar results, and reminds readers of the relative advantages of the mean absolute deviation as a measure of variation, as opposed to the more complex standard deviation. The mean absolute deviation is easier to use and understand, and more tolerant of extreme…

  2. Effect Size Reporting Practices in Published Articles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alhija, Fadia Nasser-Abu; Levy, Adi

    2009-01-01

    Effect size (ES) reporting practices in a sample of 10 educational research journals are examined in this study. Five of these journals explicitly require reporting ES and the other 5 have no such policy. Data were obtained from 99 articles published in the years 2003 and 2004, in which 183 statistical analyses were conducted. Findings indicate no…

  3. MetaPopGen: an r package to simulate population genetics in large size metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Andrello, Marco; Manel, Stéphanie

    2015-09-01

    Population genetics simulation models are useful tools to study the effects of demography and environmental factors on genetic variation and genetic differentiation. They allow for studying species and populations with complex life histories, spatial distribution and many other complicating factors that make analytical treatment impracticable. Most simulation models are individual-based: this poses a limitation to simulation of very large populations because of the limits in computer memory and long computation times. To overcome these limitations, we propose an intermediate approach that allows modelling of very complex demographic scenarios, which would be intractable with analytical models, and removes the limitations imposed by large population size, which affect individual-based simulation models. We implement this approach in a software package for the r environment, MetaPopGen. The innovative concept of this approach with respect to the other population genetic simulators is that it focuses on genotype numbers rather than on individuals. Genotype numbers are iterated through time by using random number generators for appropriate probabilistic distributions to reproduce the stochasticity inherent to Mendelian segregation, survival, dispersal and reproduction. Features included in the model are age structure, monoecious and dioecious (or separate sexes) life cycles, mutation, dispersal and selection. The model simulates only one locus at a time. All demographic parameters can be genotype-, sex-, age-, deme- and time-dependent. MetaPopGen is therefore indicated to study large populations and very complex demographic scenarios. We illustrate the capabilities of MetaPopGen by applying it to the case of a marine fish metapopulation in the Mediterranean Sea. PMID:25585533

  4. Disruption effects on the beam size measurement

    SciTech Connect

    Raimondi, P.; Decker, F.J.; Chen, P.

    1995-06-01

    At the SLC Final Focus with higher currents and smaller beam sizes, the disruption parameter D{sub y} is close to one and so the pinch effect should produce a luminosity enhancement. Since a flat beam-beam function is fit to deflection scan data to measure the beam size, disruption can affect the measurement. Here the authors discuss the quantitative effects of disruption for typical SLC beam parameters. With 3.5 10{sup 10} particles per pulse, bunch length of 0.8 mm and beam sizes of 2.1 {mu}m horizontally and 0.55 {mu}m vertically, the measured vertical size can be as much as 25% bigger than the real one. Furthermore during the collision the spot size actually decrease, producing an enhancement factor H{sub D} of about 1.25. This would yield to a true luminosity which is 1.6 times that which is estimated from the beam-beam deflection fit.

  5. Variations in basic demographics consequential to population size of governorate in Saudi Arabia.

    PubMed

    Khraif, Rshood; Salam, Asharaf Abdul; Potty, Rajaram Subramanian; Aldosari, Ali; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; AlMutairi, Abdullah

    2016-01-01

    Saudi Arabia, divided into 5 planning regions, 13 administrative regions and further to 118 governorates (administrative units), has diverse demographic characteristics from one region to another and from one governorate to another. Rural to urban migration and an exodus of immigrants characterize the Kingdom, where development planning depend largely upon local level requirements based on economic activities. An attempt was made to analyze the population characteristics, such as population size, sex ratio, native to foreigner ratio, and households and persons per households by keeping governorate as unit of analysis. Data of two census period (2004 and 2010) was used in order to explore the situation and track the intercensal changes. Large variations in population were observed between governorates and it varied from 3686 to 5,007,886 in 2010. Governorates are divided according to the number of native population demarcating urbanization, modernization and infrastructure. During the intercensal period, the number of small governorates reduced and medium and large sized governorates increased mainly due to population growth. The average population in governorates was increased in total and in the larger governorates during the period. However, we noticed a reduction in the average population size in the small and medium sized governorates. The size of native population in a governorate influences the sex ratio, the native-foreigner ratio and the persons per household as well as the variations within the group of governorates. Analyses of lower level data shall aid not only to understand the situation but also to support local development policies. PMID:27652007

  6. Variations in basic demographics consequential to population size of governorate in Saudi Arabia.

    PubMed

    Khraif, Rshood; Salam, Asharaf Abdul; Potty, Rajaram Subramanian; Aldosari, Ali; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; AlMutairi, Abdullah

    2016-01-01

    Saudi Arabia, divided into 5 planning regions, 13 administrative regions and further to 118 governorates (administrative units), has diverse demographic characteristics from one region to another and from one governorate to another. Rural to urban migration and an exodus of immigrants characterize the Kingdom, where development planning depend largely upon local level requirements based on economic activities. An attempt was made to analyze the population characteristics, such as population size, sex ratio, native to foreigner ratio, and households and persons per households by keeping governorate as unit of analysis. Data of two census period (2004 and 2010) was used in order to explore the situation and track the intercensal changes. Large variations in population were observed between governorates and it varied from 3686 to 5,007,886 in 2010. Governorates are divided according to the number of native population demarcating urbanization, modernization and infrastructure. During the intercensal period, the number of small governorates reduced and medium and large sized governorates increased mainly due to population growth. The average population in governorates was increased in total and in the larger governorates during the period. However, we noticed a reduction in the average population size in the small and medium sized governorates. The size of native population in a governorate influences the sex ratio, the native-foreigner ratio and the persons per household as well as the variations within the group of governorates. Analyses of lower level data shall aid not only to understand the situation but also to support local development policies.

  7. Two-Locus Likelihoods Under Variable Population Size and Fine-Scale Recombination Rate Estimation.

    PubMed

    Kamm, John A; Spence, Jeffrey P; Chan, Jeffrey; Song, Yun S

    2016-07-01

    Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an efficient composite-likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes ([Formula: see text]) and demographic size histories with a large number of epochs ([Formula: see text]). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size ([Formula: see text]). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale recombination rate estimation. PMID:27182948

  8. Two-Locus Likelihoods Under Variable Population Size and Fine-Scale Recombination Rate Estimation.

    PubMed

    Kamm, John A; Spence, Jeffrey P; Chan, Jeffrey; Song, Yun S

    2016-07-01

    Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an efficient composite-likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes ([Formula: see text]) and demographic size histories with a large number of epochs ([Formula: see text]). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size ([Formula: see text]). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale recombination rate estimation.

  9. Investigations of initiation spot size effects

    SciTech Connect

    Clarke, Steven A; Akinci, Adrian A; Leichty, Gary; Schaffer, Timothy; Murphy, Michael J; Munger, Alan; Thomas, Keith A

    2010-01-01

    As explosive components become smaller, a greater understanding of the effect of initiation spot size on detonation becomes increasingly critical. A series of tests of the effect of initiation spot size will be described. A series of DOI (direct optical initiation) detonators with initiation spots sizes from {approx}50 um to 1000um have been tested to determine laser parameters for threshold firing of low density PETN pressings. Results will be compared with theoretical predictions. Outputs of the initiation source (DOI ablation) have been characterized by a suite of diagnostics including PDV and schlieren imaging. Outputs of complete detonators have been characterized using PDV, streak, and/or schlieren imaging. At present, we have not found the expected change in the threshold energy to spot size relationship for DOI type detonators found in similar earlier for projectiles, slappers and EBWs. New detonators designs (Type C) are currently being tested that will allow the determination of the threshold for spot sizes from 250 um to 105um, where we hope to see change in the threshold vs. spot size relationship. Also, one test of an extremely small diameter spot size (50um) has resulted in preliminary NoGo only results even at energy densities as much as 8 times the energy density of the threshold results presented here. This gives preliminary evidence that 50um spot may be beyond the critical initiation diameter. The constant threshold energy to spot size relationship in the data to date does however still give some insight into the initiation mechanism of DOI detonators. If the DOI initiation mechanism were a 1D mechanism similar to a slapper or a flyer impact, the expected inflection point in the graph would have been between 300um and 500um diameter spot size, within the range of the data presented here. The lack of that inflection point indicates that the DOI initiation mechanism is more likely a 2D mechanism similar to a sphere or rod projectile. We expect to

  10. Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

    PubMed

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  11. Population Size Influences Amphibian Detection Probability: Implications for Biodiversity Monitoring Programs

    PubMed Central

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  12. Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

    PubMed

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  13. Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

    PubMed

    Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management. PMID:24465792

  14. Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

    PubMed Central

    Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2016-01-01

    Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

  15. Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach.

    PubMed

    Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2016-03-01

    Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles.

  16. Size-assortative mating and effect of maternal body size on the reproductive output of the nassariid Buccinanops globulosus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avaca, María Soledad; Narvarte, Maite; Martín, Pablo

    2012-04-01

    Size- assortative mating is usually present in populations where there is a positive relationship between female size and reproductive output. In this study, we tested for the presence of sexual size dimorphism, size-assortative mating and the effects of female size on reproductive output in a wild population of Buccinanops globulosus, an endemic nassariid of the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean with direct development. The results showed that: 1) females were larger than males, indicating sexual size dimorphism; 2) mate sizes were significantly correlated, indicating a component of size-assortative mating; 3) males of medium and large size classes were paired with larger females than small-sized males; 4) larger females were paired with large males; 5) maternal body size was positively related to some proxies of reproductive success (number of nurse eggs per egg capsule, egg capsular area and total length at hatching). Our results suggest that larger females may be favored as mates over smaller ones owing to their higher investment per offspring and consequently a larger initial juvenile size as juvenile.

  17. Cranioplasty for Large-Sized Calvarial Defects in the Pediatric Population: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Lam, Sandi; Kuether, Justin; Fong, Abigail; Reid, Russell

    2014-01-01

    Large-sized calvarial defects in pediatric patients pose a reconstructive challenge because of children's unique physiology, developing anatomy, and dynamic growth. We review the current literature and outcomes with autologous and alloplastic cranioplasty in the pediatric population. PMID:26000090

  18. Drivers of aggregation in a novel arboreal parasite: the influence of host size and infra-populations.

    PubMed

    Yule, Kirsty J; Burns, Kevin C

    2015-02-01

    As a novel arboreal parasite, New Zealand's largest endemic moth, Aenetus virescens, is a biological oddity. With arguably the most unusual lepidopteran life history on earth, larvae grow to 100mm, spending ∼6 years as wood-boring parasites feeding on host tree phloem. Parasite fitness is a product of host suitability. Parasite discrimination between heterogeneous hosts in fragmented populations shapes parasite aggregation. We investigated whether A. virescens aggregation among hosts occurs randomly (target area effect), or if larvae select hosts based on host quality (ideal free distribution). Using long-term larval growth as an indicator of energy intake, we examined A. virescens aggregation in relation to host size and infra-population. Using a generalised linear model, the relationship between parasite intensity and host tree size was analysed. Reduced major axis regression was used to evaluate A. virescens growth after 1 year. Linear mixed-effects models inferred the influence of parasite infra-population on parasite growth, with host tree as a random factor. Results indicate parasite intensity scaled positively with host size. Furthermore, parasite growth remained consistent throughout ontogeny regardless of host size or parasite infra-population. Aenetus virescens aggregation among hosts violates the ideal free distribution hypothesis, occurring instead as a result of host size, supporting the target area effect.

  19. Estimation of Effect Size Under Nonrandom Sampling: The Effects of Censoring Studies Yielding Statistically Insignificant Mean Differences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedges, Larry V.

    1984-01-01

    If the quantitative result of a study is observed only when the mean difference is statistically significant, the observed mean difference, variance, and effect size are biased estimators of corresponding population parameters. The exact distribution of sample effect size and the maximum likelihood estimator of effect size are derived. (Author/BW)

  20. (Finite) statistical size effects on compressive strength

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Jérôme; Girard, Lucas; Gimbert, Florent; Amitrano, David; Vandembroucq, Damien

    2014-01-01

    The larger structures are, the lower their mechanical strength. Already discussed by Leonardo da Vinci and Edmé Mariotte several centuries ago, size effects on strength remain of crucial importance in modern engineering for the elaboration of safety regulations in structural design or the extrapolation of laboratory results to geophysical field scales. Under tensile loading, statistical size effects are traditionally modeled with a weakest-link approach. One of its prominent results is a prediction of vanishing strength at large scales that can be quantified in the framework of extreme value statistics. Despite a frequent use outside its range of validity, this approach remains the dominant tool in the field of statistical size effects. Here we focus on compressive failure, which concerns a wide range of geophysical and geotechnical situations. We show on historical and recent experimental data that weakest-link predictions are not obeyed. In particular, the mechanical strength saturates at a nonzero value toward large scales. Accounting explicitly for the elastic interactions between defects during the damage process, we build a formal analogy of compressive failure with the depinning transition of an elastic manifold. This critical transition interpretation naturally entails finite-size scaling laws for the mean strength and its associated variability. Theoretical predictions are in remarkable agreement with measurements reported for various materials such as rocks, ice, coal, or concrete. This formalism, which can also be extended to the flowing instability of granular media under multiaxial compression, has important practical consequences for future design rules. PMID:24733930

  1. First molar size and wear within and among modern hunter-gatherers and agricultural populations.

    PubMed

    Górka, Katarzyna; Romero, Alejandro; Pérez-Pérez, Alejandro

    2015-08-01

    Apart from reflecting modern human dental variation, differences in dental size among populations provide a means for studying continuous evolutionary processes and their mechanisms. Dental wear, on the other hand, has been widely used to infer dietary adaptations and variability among or within diverse ancient human populations. Few such studies have focused on modern foragers and farmers, however, and diverse methods have been used. This research aimed to apply a single, standardized, and systematic quantitative procedure to measure dental size and dentin exposure in order to analyze differences among several hunter-gatherer and agricultural populations from various environments and geographic origins. In particular, we focused on sexual dimorphism and intergroup differences in the upper and lower first molars. Results indicated no sexual dimorphism in molar size and wear within the studied populations. Despite the great ethnographic variation in subsistence strategies among these populations, our findings suggest that differences in sexual division of labor do not affect dietary wear patterns. PMID:26032341

  2. Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

    2010-01-01

    The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm

  3. Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yu-Lin; Horstman, Matthew; Krisko, Paula; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, Mark; Stansbery, Eugene; Stokely, Christopher; Whitlock, David

    Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better-quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (≥1 m and ≥10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of ≥3.3 cm, ≥1 cm, ≥100 µm, and ≥10 µm. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

  4. Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y. -l; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J. -C; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.; Stokely, C. L.; Whitlock, D.

    2008-01-01

    Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

  5. Family reintegration of children and adolescents in foster care in Brazilian municipalities with different population sizes.

    PubMed

    Iannelli, Andrea M; Assis, Simone Gonçalves; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach; Pinto, Liana Wenersbach

    2015-01-01

    The scope of this article is to present and analyze data from Brazilian foster care services for children / adolescents from the perspective of family reintegration. It also seeks to support the implementation of public policies in order to provide effective reintegration in accordance with the differing local contexts. It uses data from 1,157 municipalities that have foster care services. The methodology takes into account the data collection of 2,624 Brazilian centers and 36,929 children and adolescents in care. The growing number of children/adolescents in care is in line with the increase in population size: 8.4 per small city; 60 per large city and 602.4 per metropolis. With respect to care residence in a different municipality there are varying indices: 12.4% in metropolises and 33.6% in small cities, revealing the absence of centers close to family units in the smaller communities. Regarding the activities promoted together with families, it was seen that there are still units that do not perform any activities, which runs contrary to Brazilian law. It is clear that policies for the child/adolescent in foster care centers need to consider the capacity of the municipality in accordance with population size to implement support actions for families to assist in family reintegration. PMID:25650596

  6. Effects of macromolecular crowding on nuclear size.

    PubMed

    Rosania, G R; Swanson, J A

    1995-05-01

    The concentration of macromolecules inside cells is high, and the resultant crowding of cytoplasm can be expected to affect many interactions involving macromolecular assemblies. Here, we have examined the effect of solute size and concentration on nuclear volume in saponin-permeabilized macrophages. Nuclei swelled in the presence of small solutes and shrank reversibly in the presence of larger permeant solutes. Remarkably, the smallest solutes capable of shrinking the nucleus were not excluded by the pores in the nuclear envelope. Indeed, nuclei shrank in the presence of such solutes even after the nuclear envelope had been sheared mechanically or permeabilized with detergent. Nuclei extracted with 1% Triton X-100 shrank in the presence of very high concentrations of small solute molecules (30% w/v) as well as in lower concentrations of larger solutes. Consistent with a macromolecular crowding effect, changes in nuclear volume were dependent on solute size and not simply dependent on the colligative properties of solutes or the exclusion of solutes by the nuclear envelope. Solute size-dependent changes in nuclear volume were independent of the chemical nature of the solutes and of the activity of the ions in the buffer. Together, these observations indicate that high concentrations of macromolecules such as those found inside cells can influence the size of the nucleus by directly affecting nuclear structure.

  7. Population Size and Suicide in U.S. Cities: A Static and Dynamic Exploration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCall, Patricia L.; Tittle, Charles R.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic…

  8. Man in Balance with the Environment: Pollution and the Optimal Population Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ultsch, Gordon R.

    1973-01-01

    Discusses the relationship between population size and pollution, and suggests that the optimal population level toward which we should strive would be that level at which man is in balance with the biosphere in terms of pollution production and degradation, coupled with a harmless steady-state background pollution level. (JR)

  9. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  10. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... REQUIREMENTS APPLICABLE TO TITLE IV-E Pt. 1356, App. C Appendix C to Part 1356—Calculating Sample Size for...

  11. Central limit theorem for variable size simple random sampling from a finite population

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, T.

    1986-02-01

    This paper introduces a sampling plan for finite populations herein called ''variable size simple random sampling'' and compares properties of estimators based on it with results from the usual fixed size simple random sampling without replacement. Necessary and sufficient conditions (in the spirit of Hajek) for the limiting distribution of the sample total (or sample mean) to be normal are given. 19 refs.

  12. Chronic exposure to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons in natal habitats leads to decreased equilibrium size, growth, and stability of pink salmon populations.

    PubMed

    Heintz, Ron A

    2007-07-01

    The immediate and delayed effects of embryonic exposure to low levels of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been shown to reduce survival to maturity by 50% in exposed pink salmon populations. This suggests that chronically exposed populations could be extirpated over relatively few generations, but the effect of density dependence on extirpation rate is unknown. This study examines the interaction of PAH effects and randomly varying density dependence on a simulated population. The simulation derives from 70 years of observations made on a single pink salmon population and toxicity studies involving a hatchery population in the same watershed. Results from simulations involving exposure of 100% of the population to effects consistent with an aqueous PAH concentration of 18 nL/L indicate an 80% decrease in population productivity and an 11% probability of extinction after 35 generations. In contrast, population growth rate declined by only 5%. Further decreases in survival relative to that of observed PAH effects rapidly increase the probability of extinction. Data from these simulations demonstrate that, at low levels of exposure, density dependence can compensate for reduced population size and buffer the population against extinction. However, if equilibrium size is depressed sufficiently, random environmental variation overcomes the buffering effect of density dependence and extinction probability increases. These data demonstrate that extinction probability and population size are more sensitive measures of population effects than growth rate for wild populations regulated by density dependence.

  13. Factors influencing the effect size distribution of adaptive substitutions.

    PubMed

    Dittmar, Emily L; Oakley, Christopher G; Conner, Jeffrey K; Gould, Billie A; Schemske, Douglas W

    2016-04-13

    The distribution of effect sizes of adaptive substitutions has been central to evolutionary biology since the modern synthesis. Early theory proposed that because large-effect mutations have negative pleiotropic consequences, only small-effect mutations contribute to adaptation. More recent theory suggested instead that large-effect mutations could be favoured when populations are far from their adaptive peak. Here we suggest that the distributions of effect sizes are expected to differ among study systems, reflecting the wide variation in evolutionary forces and ecological conditions experienced in nature. These include selection, mutation, genetic drift, gene flow, and other factors such as the degree of pleiotropy, the distance to the phenotypic optimum, whether the optimum is stable or moving, and whether new mutation or standing genetic variation provides the source of adaptive alleles. Our goal is to review how these factors might affect the distribution of effect sizes and to identify new research directions. Until more theory and empirical work is available, we feel that it is premature to make broad generalizations about the effect size distribution of adaptive substitutions important in nature.

  14. Factors influencing the effect size distribution of adaptive substitutions

    PubMed Central

    Oakley, Christopher G.; Gould, Billie A.; Schemske, Douglas W.

    2016-01-01

    The distribution of effect sizes of adaptive substitutions has been central to evolutionary biology since the modern synthesis. Early theory proposed that because large-effect mutations have negative pleiotropic consequences, only small-effect mutations contribute to adaptation. More recent theory suggested instead that large-effect mutations could be favoured when populations are far from their adaptive peak. Here we suggest that the distributions of effect sizes are expected to differ among study systems, reflecting the wide variation in evolutionary forces and ecological conditions experienced in nature. These include selection, mutation, genetic drift, gene flow, and other factors such as the degree of pleiotropy, the distance to the phenotypic optimum, whether the optimum is stable or moving, and whether new mutation or standing genetic variation provides the source of adaptive alleles. Our goal is to review how these factors might affect the distribution of effect sizes and to identify new research directions. Until more theory and empirical work is available, we feel that it is premature to make broad generalizations about the effect size distribution of adaptive substitutions important in nature. PMID:27053750

  15. Size segregation in the Brazil nut effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soterroni, Aline C.; Ramos, Fernando M.

    2013-10-01

    Granular materials are ubiquitous in nature and in our daily lives, and used in many industrial processes. Depending on the physical conditions that they are subjected, granular materials may present unusual behavior, combining properties of solids, liquids or gases, and displaying interesting and diversified phenomena. In this work we numerically simulated a granular system in order to investigate the phenomena of size segregation in the Brazil Nut Effect. Our simulations indicate that the phenomenon of size segregation results from the combined effect of two different mechanisms: buoyancy and convection. Increasing the vibration amplitude, the behavior of the system becomes less periodic and more turbulent, with evidence of deterministic chaos in the dynamics of the large particle.

  16. Estimating Effects of Species Interactions on Populations of Endangered Species.

    PubMed

    Roth, Tobias; Bühler, Christoph; Amrhein, Valentin

    2016-04-01

    Global change causes community composition to change considerably through time, with ever-new combinations of interacting species. To study the consequences of newly established species interactions, one available source of data could be observational surveys from biodiversity monitoring. However, approaches using observational data would need to account for niche differences between species and for imperfect detection of individuals. To estimate population sizes of interacting species, we extended N-mixture models that were developed to estimate true population sizes in single species. Simulations revealed that our model is able to disentangle direct effects of dominant on subordinate species from indirect effects of dominant species on detection probability of subordinate species. For illustration, we applied our model to data from a Swiss amphibian monitoring program and showed that sizes of expanding water frog populations were negatively related to population sizes of endangered yellow-bellied toads and common midwife toads and partly of natterjack toads. Unlike other studies that analyzed presence and absence of species, our model suggests that the spread of water frogs in Central Europe is one of the reasons for the decline of endangered toad species. Thus, studying population impacts of dominant species on population sizes of endangered species using data from biodiversity monitoring programs should help to inform conservation policy and to decide whether competing species should be subject to population management. PMID:27028074

  17. Estimating Effects of Species Interactions on Populations of Endangered Species.

    PubMed

    Roth, Tobias; Bühler, Christoph; Amrhein, Valentin

    2016-04-01

    Global change causes community composition to change considerably through time, with ever-new combinations of interacting species. To study the consequences of newly established species interactions, one available source of data could be observational surveys from biodiversity monitoring. However, approaches using observational data would need to account for niche differences between species and for imperfect detection of individuals. To estimate population sizes of interacting species, we extended N-mixture models that were developed to estimate true population sizes in single species. Simulations revealed that our model is able to disentangle direct effects of dominant on subordinate species from indirect effects of dominant species on detection probability of subordinate species. For illustration, we applied our model to data from a Swiss amphibian monitoring program and showed that sizes of expanding water frog populations were negatively related to population sizes of endangered yellow-bellied toads and common midwife toads and partly of natterjack toads. Unlike other studies that analyzed presence and absence of species, our model suggests that the spread of water frogs in Central Europe is one of the reasons for the decline of endangered toad species. Thus, studying population impacts of dominant species on population sizes of endangered species using data from biodiversity monitoring programs should help to inform conservation policy and to decide whether competing species should be subject to population management.

  18. Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

    2013-05-01

    The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics. PMID:23053229

  19. Using pedigree reconstruction to estimate population size: genotypes are more than individually unique marks

    PubMed Central

    Creel, Scott; Rosenblatt, Elias

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Noninvasive genetic methods are increasingly used to estimate population size, particularly in elusive species such as large carnivores, which are difficult to count by most other methods. In most such studies, genotypes are treated simply as unique individual identifiers. Here, we develop a new estimator of population size based on pedigree reconstruction. The estimator accounts for individuals that were directly sampled, individuals that were not sampled but whose genotype could be inferred by pedigree reconstruction, and individuals that were not detected by either of these methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the population estimate is unbiased and precise if sampling is of sufficient intensity and duration. Simulations also identified sampling conditions that can cause the method to overestimate or underestimate true population size; we present and discuss methods to correct these potential biases. The method detected 2–21% more individuals than were directly sampled across a broad range of simulated sampling schemes. Genotypes are more than unique identifiers, and the information about relationships in a set of genotypes can improve estimates of population size. PMID:23762516

  20. Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

    PubMed Central

    Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

    2014-01-01

    Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

  1. State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

  2. Targeted agri-environment schemes significantly improve the population size of common farmland bumblebee species.

    PubMed

    Wood, Thomas J; Holland, John M; Hughes, William O H; Goulson, Dave

    2015-04-01

    Changes in agricultural practice across Europe and North America have been associated with range contractions and local extinction of bumblebees (Bombus spp.). A number of agri-environment schemes have been implemented to halt and reverse these declines, predominantly revolving around the provision of additional forage plants. Although it has been demonstrated that these schemes can attract substantial numbers of foraging bumblebees, it remains unclear to what extent they actually increase bumblebee populations. We used standardized transect walks and molecular techniques to compare the size of bumblebee populations between Higher Level Stewardship (HLS) farms implementing pollinator-friendly schemes and Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) control farms. Bumblebee abundance on the transect walks was significantly higher on HLS farms than ELS farms. Molecular analysis suggested maximum foraging ranges of 566 m for Bombus hortorum, 714 m for B. lapidarius, 363 m for B. pascuorum and 799 m for B. terrestris. Substantial differences in maximum foraging range were found within bumblebee species between farm types. Accounting for foraging range differences, B. hortorum (47 vs 13 nests/km(2) ) and B. lapidarius (45 vs 22 nests/km(2) ) were found to nest at significantly greater densities on HLS farms than ELS farms. There were no significant differences between farm type for B. terrestris (88 vs 38 nests/km(2) ) and B. pascuorum (32 vs 39 nests/km(2) ). Across all bumblebee species, HLS management had a significantly positive effect on bumblebee nest density. These results show that targeted agri-environment schemes that increase the availability of suitable forage can significantly increase the size of wild bumblebee populations.

  3. Targeted agri-environment schemes significantly improve the population size of common farmland bumblebee species.

    PubMed

    Wood, Thomas J; Holland, John M; Hughes, William O H; Goulson, Dave

    2015-04-01

    Changes in agricultural practice across Europe and North America have been associated with range contractions and local extinction of bumblebees (Bombus spp.). A number of agri-environment schemes have been implemented to halt and reverse these declines, predominantly revolving around the provision of additional forage plants. Although it has been demonstrated that these schemes can attract substantial numbers of foraging bumblebees, it remains unclear to what extent they actually increase bumblebee populations. We used standardized transect walks and molecular techniques to compare the size of bumblebee populations between Higher Level Stewardship (HLS) farms implementing pollinator-friendly schemes and Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) control farms. Bumblebee abundance on the transect walks was significantly higher on HLS farms than ELS farms. Molecular analysis suggested maximum foraging ranges of 566 m for Bombus hortorum, 714 m for B. lapidarius, 363 m for B. pascuorum and 799 m for B. terrestris. Substantial differences in maximum foraging range were found within bumblebee species between farm types. Accounting for foraging range differences, B. hortorum (47 vs 13 nests/km(2) ) and B. lapidarius (45 vs 22 nests/km(2) ) were found to nest at significantly greater densities on HLS farms than ELS farms. There were no significant differences between farm type for B. terrestris (88 vs 38 nests/km(2) ) and B. pascuorum (32 vs 39 nests/km(2) ). Across all bumblebee species, HLS management had a significantly positive effect on bumblebee nest density. These results show that targeted agri-environment schemes that increase the availability of suitable forage can significantly increase the size of wild bumblebee populations. PMID:25753513

  4. Estimating the size of key populations at higher risk of HIV infection: a summary of experiences and lessons presented during a technical meeting on size estimation among key populations in Asian countries

    PubMed Central

    Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia; Zhao, Jinkou; Reddy, Amala; Seguy, Nicole

    2014-01-01

    Problem Size estimates of key populations at higher risk of HIV exposure are recognized as critical for understanding the trajectory of the HIV epidemic and planning and monitoring an effective response, especially for countries with concentrated and low epidemics such as those in Asia. Context To help countries estimate population sizes of key populations, global guidelines were updated in 2011 to reflect new technical developments and recent field experiences in applying these methods. Action In September 2013, a meeting of programme managers and experts experienced with population size estimates (PSE) for key populations was held for 13 Asian countries. This article summarizes the key results presented, shares practical lessons learnt and reviews the methodological approaches from implementing PSE in 13 countries. Lessons learnt It is important to build capacity to collect, analyse and use PSE data; establish a technical review group; and implement a transparent, well documented process. Countries should adapt global PSE guidelines and maintain operational definitions that are more relevant and useable for country programmes. Development of methods for non-venue-based key populations requires more investment and collaborative efforts between countries and among partners. PMID:25320676

  5. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

  6. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

  7. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

    PubMed Central

    DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

  8. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

    PubMed

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

  9. Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk for HIV Using Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

    PubMed Central

    Handcock, Mark S.; Gile, Krista J.; Mar, Corinne M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The study of hard-to-reach populations presents significant challenges. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader sampling frames. This is especially true of populations at high risk for HIV/AIDS. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is often used in such settings with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence of infection. In such populations, the number of people at risk for infection and the number of people infected are of fundamental importance. This article presents a case-study of the estimation of the size of the hard-to-reach population based on data collected through RDS. We study two populations of female sex workers and men-who-have-sex-with-men in El Salvador. The approach is Bayesian and we consider different forms of prior information, including using the UNAIDS population size guidelines for this region. We show that the method is able to quantify the amount of information on population size available in RDS samples. As separate validation, we compare our results to those estimated by extrapolating from a capture–recapture study of El Salvadorian cities. The results of our case-study are largely comparable to those of the capture–recapture study when they differ from the UNAIDS guidelines. Our method is widely applicable to data from RDS studies and we provide a software package to facilitate this. PMID:25585794

  10. The Relationship between Sample Sizes and Effect Sizes in Systematic Reviews in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Slavin, Robert; Smith, Dewi

    2009-01-01

    Research in fields other than education has found that studies with small sample sizes tend to have larger effect sizes than those with large samples. This article examines the relationship between sample size and effect size in education. It analyzes data from 185 studies of elementary and secondary mathematics programs that met the standards of…

  11. Is the detection of the first arrival date of migrating birds influenced by population size? A case study of the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio.

    PubMed

    Tryjanowski, P; Sparks, T H

    2001-11-01

    Many analyses do not consider the problems associated with the effects of population size on encounter recording. Population size could impact on the detection of bird arrival time as there is a higher probability of observing earlier arrival when the population size is greater and the song activity of birds is increased, as occurs with a larger population. As a case study, we have analysed data on the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio collected in Western Poland during 1983-2000. In this period the red-backed shrike's return to its breeding sites became significantly earlier whilst the contemporary population size increased significantly. To eliminate linear trends through time we have worked on the standardised residuals from regression of both arrival time and population size on year. The correlation between arrival time and population size residuals was significantly negative, further supporting the link between detection and population size. This finding suggests that, in studies of avian migration and its changes over time, the relationship between arrival date and population size needs to be considered.

  12. Is the detection of the first arrival date of migrating birds influenced by population size? A case study of the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tryjanowski, P.; Sparks, T. H.

    Many analyses do not consider the problems associated with the effects of population size on encounter recording. Population size could impact on the detection of bird arrival time as there is a higher probability of observing earlier arrival when the population size is greater and the song activity of birds is increased, as occurs with a larger population. As a case study, we have analysed data on the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio collected in Western Poland during 1983-2000. In this period the red-backed shrike's return to its breeding sites became significantly earlier whilst the contemporary population size increased significantly. To eliminate linear trends through time we have worked on the standardised residuals from regression of both arrival time and population size on year. The correlation between arrival time and population size residuals was significantly negative, further supporting the link between detection and population size. This finding suggests that, in studies of avian migration and its changes over time, the relationship between arrival date and population size needs to be considered.

  13. Novel estimates of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult survival based on Wolbachia releases.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Scott A; Montgomery, Brian L; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2013-05-01

    The size of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito populations and adult survival rates have proven difficult to estimate because of a lack of consistent quantitative measures to equate sampling methods, such as adult trapping, to actual population size. However, such estimates are critical for devising control methods and for modeling the transmission of dengue and other infectious agents carried by this species. Here we take advantage of recent releases of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti coupled with the results of ongoing monitoring to estimate the size of adult Ae. aegypti populations around Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia. Based on the association between released adults infected with Wolbachia and data from Biogents Sentinel traps, we show that data from two locations are consistent with population estimates of approximately 5-10 females per house and daily survival rates of 0.7-0.9 for the released Wolbachia-infected females. Moreover, we estimate that networks of Biogents Sentinel traps at a density of one per 15 houses capture around 5-10% of the adult population per week, and provide a rapid estimate of the absolute population size of Ae. aegypti. These data are discussed with respect to release rates and monitoring in future Wolbachia releases and also the levels of suppression required to reduce dengue transmission. PMID:23802459

  14. Population Variation Reveals Independent Selection toward Small Body Size in Chinese Debao Pony

    PubMed Central

    Kader, Adiljan; Li, Yan; Dong, Kunzhe; Irwin, David M.; Zhao, Qianjun; He, Xiaohong; Liu, Jianfeng; Pu, Yabin; Gorkhali, Neena Amatya; Liu, Xuexue; Jiang, Lin; Li, Xiangchen; Guan, Weijun; Zhang, Yaping; Wu, Dong-Dong; Ma, Yuehui

    2016-01-01

    Body size, one of the most important quantitative traits under evolutionary scrutiny, varies considerably among species and among populations within species. Revealing the genetic basis underlying this variation is very important, particularly in humans where there is a close relationship with diseases and in domestic animals as the selective patterns are associated with improvements in production traits. The Debao pony is a horse breed with small body size that is unique to China; however, it is unknown whether the size-related candidate genes identified in Western breeds also account for the small body size of the Debao pony. Here, we compared individual horses from the Debao population with other two Chinese horse populations using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified with the Equine SNP 65 Bead Chip. The previously reported size-related candidate gene HMGA2 showed a significant signature for selection, consistent with its role observed in human populations. More interestingly, we found a candidate gene TBX3, which had not been observed in previous studies on horse body size that displayed the highest differentiation and most significant association, and thus likely is the dominating factor for the small stature of the Debao pony. Further comparison between the Debao pony and other breeds of horses from around the world demonstrated that TBX3 was selected independently in the Debao pony, suggesting that there were multiple origins of small stature in the horse. PMID:26637467

  15. Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications.

    PubMed

    Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

    2016-06-01

    It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits. PMID:27247616

  16. Size-frequency distribution of crater populations in equilibrium on the Moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Zhiyong; Werner, Stephanie C.

    2015-12-01

    Overprinting of craters by subsequent impacts and topographic degradation complicates crater statistics, especially for old surfaces and small-diameter crater populations. A crater population is regarded as in equilibrium at a particular crater size when smaller craters are being produced at the same rate at which they are being destroyed. Evaluating the equilibrium state of crater populations is challenging, and empirical equilibrium densities are frequently inferred. By performing careful crater counts and cross comparisons on several lunar surfaces, we study the size-frequency distributions (SFD) for the crater populations, which have portions in equilibrium. The results are one of the few observational constraints on the SFD of crater populations in equilibrium, showing that referring to empirical equilibrium densities is not safe for evaluating the equilibrium states of crater populations. Equilibrium densities are not positively correlated with the ages of crater populations, and some populations in equilibrium have crater densities less than those previously believed to represent equilibrium conditions. Besides the SFD of the production population, different crater removal rates at different diameters also affect the SFD of crater populations in equilibrium. The equilibrium onset diameter (Deq) of a crater population can be translated to model ages because older populations have larger Deq, and those for same-aged surfaces are comparable. We show that the crater populations studied here are in equilibrium at much smaller diameters than those predicted for same-aged surfaces by crater degradation models, thus indicating lower crater degradation rates on the Moon, and/or younger ages of the counting areas.

  17. Size effects in lithium ion batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu-Rong, Yao; Ya-Xia, Yin; Yu-Gao, Guo

    2016-01-01

    Size-related properties of novel lithium battery materials, arising from kinetics, thermodynamics, and newly discovered lithium storage mechanisms, are reviewed. Complementary experimental and computational investigations of the use of the size effects to modify electrodes and electrolytes for lithium ion batteries are enumerated and discussed together. Size differences in the materials in lithium ion batteries lead to a variety of exciting phenomena. Smaller-particle materials with highly connective interfaces and reduced diffusion paths exhibit higher rate performance than the corresponding bulk materials. The thermodynamics is also changed by the higher surface energy of smaller particles, affecting, for example, secondary surface reactions, lattice parameter, voltage, and the phase transformation mechanism. Newly discovered lithium storage mechanisms that result in superior storage capacity are also briefly highlighted. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51225204 and 21303222), the Shandong Taishan Scholarship, China, the Ministry of Science and Technology, China (Grant No. 2012CB932900), and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA09010000).

  18. Floral display size, conspecific density and florivory affect fruit set in natural populations of Phlox hirsuta, an endangered species

    PubMed Central

    Ruane, Lauren G.; Rotzin, Andrew T.; Congleton, Philip H.

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims Natural variation in fruit and seed set may be explained by factors that affect the composition of pollen grains on stigmas. Self-incompatible species require compatible outcross pollen grains to produce seeds. The siring success of outcross pollen grains, however, can be hindered if self (or other incompatible) pollen grains co-occur on stigmas. This study identifies factors that determine fruit set in Phlox hirsuta, a self-sterile endangered species that is prone to self-pollination, and its associated fitness costs. Methods Multiple linear regressions were used to identify factors that explain variation in percentage fruit set within three of the five known populations of this endangered species. Florivorous beetle density, petal colour, floral display size, local conspecific density and pre-dispersal seed predation were quantified and their effects on the ability of flowers to produce fruits were assessed. Key Results In all three populations, percentage fruit set decreased as florivorous beetle density increased and as floral display size increased. The effect of floral display size on fruit set, however, often depended on the density of nearby conspecific plants. High local conspecific densities offset – even reversed – the negative effects of floral display size on percentage fruit set. Seed predation by mammals decreased fruit set in one population. Conclusions The results indicate that seed production in P. hirsuta can be maximized by selectively augmenting populations in areas containing isolated large plants, by reducing the population sizes of florivorous beetles and by excluding mammals that consume unripe fruits. PMID:24557879

  19. Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

    PubMed

    Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

    2003-07-01

    Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias. PMID:12803649

  20. Tumor size and effectiveness of electrochemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Mali, Barbara; Miklavcic, Damijan; Campana, Luca G.; Cemazar, Maja; Sersa, Gregor; Snoj, Marko; Jarm, Tomaz

    2013-01-01

    Background Electrochemotherapy (ECT) is an effective and safe method for local treatment of tumors. However, relatively large variability in effectiveness of ECT has been observed, which likely results from different treatment conditions and tumor characteristics. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between tumor size and effectiveness of a single-session ECT. Materials and methods A systematic search of various bibliographic databases was performed and nine studies eligible for this study were extracted. Different statistical methods including meta-analysis were applied to analyze the data. Results The results of analysis based on data from 1466 tumors of any histotype show significantly lower effectiveness of ECT on tumors with maximal diameter equal to or larger than 3 cm (complete response (CR) of 33.3%, objective response (OR) of 68.2%) in comparison to smaller tumors (CR% of 59.5%, OR% of 85.7%). The results of meta-analysis indicated that ECT performed on tumors smaller than 3 cm statistically significantly increases the probability of CR by 31.0% and OR by 24.9% on average in comparison to larger tumors. The analysis of raw data about the size and response of tumors showed statistically significant decrease in effectiveness of ECT progressively with increasing tumor diameter. The biggest drop in CR% was detected at tumor diameters as small as 2 cm. Conclusions The standard operating procedures for ECT should be reexamined and refined for the treatment of large tumors. We propose that future clinical trials should include accurate ECT treatment planning and/or multiple ECT cycles, besides a prolonged observation for tumor response evaluation. PMID:23450195

  1. The genetics of rhizosheath size in a multiparent mapping population of wheat

    PubMed Central

    Delhaize, Emmanuel; Rathjen, Tina M.; Cavanagh, Colin R.

    2015-01-01

    Rhizosheaths comprise soil that adheres to plant roots and, in some species, are indicative of root hair length. In this study, the genetics of rhizosheath size in wheat was investigated by screening the progeny of multiparent advanced generation intercrosses (MAGIC). Two MAGIC populations were screened for rhizosheath size using a high throughput method. One MAGIC population was developed from intercrosses between four parents (4-way) and the other from intercrosses between eight parents (8-way). Transgressive segregation for rhizosheath size was observed in both the 4-way and 8-way MAGIC populations. A quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis of the 4-way population identified six major loci located on chromosomes 2B, 4D, 5A, 5B, 6A, and 7A together accounting for 42% of the variation in rhizosheath size. Rhizosheath size was strongly correlated with root hair length and was robust across different soil types in the absence of chemical constraints. Rhizosheath size in the MAGIC populations was a reliable surrogate for root hair length and, therefore, the QTL identified probably control root hair elongation. Members of the basic helix-loop-helix family of transcription factors have previously been identified to regulate root hair length in Arabidopsis and rice. Since several wheat members of the basic helix-loop-helix family of genes are located within or near the QTL, these genes are candidates for controlling the long root hair trait. The QTL for rhizosheath size identified in this study provides the opportunity to implement marker-assisted selection to increase root hair length for improved phosphate acquisition in wheat. PMID:25969556

  2. Effect Size, Statistical Power and Sample Size Requirements for the Bootstrap Likelihood Ratio Test in Latent Class Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Dziak, John J.; Lanza, Stephanie T.; Tan, Xianming

    2014-01-01

    Selecting the number of different classes which will be assumed to exist in the population is an important step in latent class analysis (LCA). The bootstrap likelihood ratio test (BLRT) provides a data-driven way to evaluate the relative adequacy of a (K −1)-class model compared to a K-class model. However, very little is known about how to predict the power or the required sample size for the BLRT in LCA. Based on extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we provide practical effect size measures and power curves which can be used to predict power for the BLRT in LCA given a proposed sample size and a set of hypothesized population parameters. Estimated power curves and tables provide guidance for researchers wishing to size a study to have sufficient power to detect hypothesized underlying latent classes. PMID:25328371

  3. Size effects in thermal conduction by phonons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Philip B.

    2014-08-01

    Heat transport in nanoscale systems is both hard to measure microscopically, and hard to interpret. Ballistic and diffusive heat flow coexist, adding confusion. This paper looks at a very simple case: a nanoscale crystal repeated periodically. This is a popular model for simulation of bulk heat transport using classical molecular dynamics (MD), and is related to transient thermal grating experiments. Nanoscale effects are seen in perhaps their simplest form. The model is solved by an extension of standard quasiparticle gas theory of bulk solids. Both structure and heat flow are constrained by periodic boundary conditions. Diffusive transport is fully included, while ballistic transport by phonons of a long mean free path is diminished in a specific way. Heat current J (x) and temperature gradient ∇T (x') have a nonlocal relationship, via κ (x-x'), over a distance |x-x'| determined by phonon mean free paths. In MD modeling of bulk conductivity, finite computer resources limit system size. Long mean free paths, comparable to the scale of heating and cooling, cause undesired finite-size effects that have to be removed by extrapolation. The present model allows this extrapolation to be quantified. Calculations based on the Peierls-Boltzmann equation, using a generalized Debye model, show that extrapolation involves fractional powers of 1/L. It is also argued that heating and cooling should be distributed sinusoidally [ė∝cos(2πx/L)] to improve convergence of numerics.

  4. Mechanisms underlying the portion-size effect.

    PubMed

    Peter Herman, C; Polivy, Janet; Pliner, Patricia; Vartanian, Lenny R

    2015-05-15

    The portion-size effect (PSE) refers to the fact that people eat more when served larger portions. This effect is neither obvious nor artifactual. We examine the prevailing explanations (or underlying mechanisms) that have been offered for the PSE. The dominant candidate mechanism is "appropriateness"; that is, people accept the portion that they are served as being of an appropriate size and eat accordingly. Because people do not necessarily finish the portion that they are served, variations on the basic appropriateness mechanism have been suggested. We also consider some evidence that is inconsistent with an appropriateness explanation, including the appearance of the PSE in children as young as two years of age. We also examine other mechanisms that do not rely on appropriateness norms. Visual food cues may assist in assessing appropriateness but may also drive food intake in a more mindless fashion. Larger portions induce larger bites, which may increase intake by reducing oral exposure time and sensory-specific satiety. We consider further research questions that could help to clarify the mechanisms underlying the PSE. PMID:25802021

  5. Nautilus at risk--estimating population size and demography of Nautilus pompilius.

    PubMed

    Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Marshall, Justin

    2011-02-10

    The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6-77.4 km(-2)) dominated by males (83:17 male:female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide.

  6. Nautilus at Risk – Estimating Population Size and Demography of Nautilus pompilius

    PubMed Central

    Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Marshall, Justin

    2011-01-01

    The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6–77.4 km−2) dominated by males (83∶17 male∶female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide. PMID:21347360

  7. Pond and landscape determinants of Rana dalmatina population sizes in a Romanian rural landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartel, Tibor; Nemes, Szilárd; Cogălniceanu, Dan; Öllerer, Kinga; Moga, Cosmin Ioan; Lesbarrères, David; Demeter, László

    2009-01-01

    Amphibians are good indicators of human impact, declining steadily worldwide. We explored the relationships between the ponds and nearby landscape parameters and population size of the Agile Frog ( Rana dalmatina), estimated from the number of egg masses, in a cultural landscape within the central section of Târnava Mare Basin, Romania. Forty-three permanent ponds were surveyed in a 2600 km 2 area. The average number of egg masses per pond was 211.13 (SD = 426.41). The egg mass number was significantly and positively related to the emergent aquatic macrophyte cover (its effect peaks at around 50%) and the green connecting corridors between the ponds and forests, and negatively related to the extent of nearby urban areas. The proximity of the forest (positive effect) and the presence of high traffic roads (negative effect) were highly correlated with green corridors and further eliminated from the model due to multicollinearity. Both these variables had significant effects when incorporated in univariate models and multivariate models without green corridors. Since a large part of our study area was currently declared as Natura 2000 site, there is an increased need for management proposals and conservation applications for biodiversity, including amphibians. Rana dalmatina is an important species for monitoring because it is common in the studied area and is suited for short surveys.

  8. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes.

    PubMed

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R; Foil, Lane D

    2016-01-01

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes. PMID:26755069

  9. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes

    PubMed Central

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R.; Foil, Lane D.

    2016-01-01

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes. PMID:26755069

  10. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes.

    PubMed

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R; Foil, Lane D

    2016-01-12

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes.

  11. Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Farmer, Chris

    2012-01-01

    Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

  12. Survival and population size estimation in raptor studies: A comparison of two methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gould, William R.; Fuller, Mark R.

    1995-01-01

    ABSTRACT.--The Jolly-Seber model is a capture-recapture model that can provide less-biased survival and population size estimates than those produced from simple counting procedures. Parameter estimation by simple counts and Jolly-Seber methods are based on certain assumptions that directly determine the validity of estimates. Evuluation of assumptions for parameter estimation is a focus of this paper and used as a basis for determining which methods are more likely to produce better estimates. An example of population size and survival estimation for a peregrine falcon(Falco peregrinus) population in western Greenland is used to compare the two methods.Based on results from the Greenland peregrine population, and an assessment of the underlying assumptions of simple counts and the Jolly-Seber model,we suggest that Jolly-Seber estimation of survival and population size is less biased than simple counts in studies with marked birds. We recommend the use of a Jolly-Seber analysis of data when capture-recapture techniques are employed in raptor population studies.