Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

PubMed Central

Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

2010-01-01

Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?

PubMed

Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

2014-05-01

This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trying not to get burned: understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors.

PubMed

Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patricia A; Flores, Nicholas

2012-12-01

Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland-urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners' decisions to undertake wildfire risk-reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk-mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property.

Are non-native plants perceived to be more risky? Factors influencing horticulturists' risk perceptions of ornamental plant species.

PubMed

Humair, Franziska; Kueffer, Christoph; Siegrist, Michael

2014-01-01

Horticultural trade is recognized as an important vector in promoting the introduction and dispersal of harmful non-native plant species. Understanding horticulturists' perceptions of biotic invasions is therefore important for effective species risk management. We conducted a large-scale survey among horticulturists in Switzerland (N = 625) to reveal horticulturists' risk and benefit perceptions from ornamental plant species, their attitudes towards the regulation of non-native species, as well as the factors decisive for environmental risk perceptions and horticulturists' willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior. Our results suggest that perceived familiarity with a plant species had a mitigating effect on risk perceptions, while perceptions of risk increased if a species was perceived to be non-native. However, perceptions of the non-native origin of ornamental plant species were often not congruent with scientific classifications. Horticulturists displayed positive attitudes towards mandatory trade regulations, particularly towards those targeted against known invasive species. Participants also expressed their willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior. Yet, positive effects of risk perceptions on the willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior were counteracted by perceptions of benefits from selling non-native ornamental species. Our results indicate that the prevalent practice in risk communication to emphasize the non-native origin of invasive species can be ineffective, especially in the case of species of high importance to local industries and people. This is because familiarity with these plants can reduce risk perceptions and be in conflict with scientific concepts of non-nativeness. In these cases, it might be more effective to focus communication on well-documented environmental impacts of harmful species.

Are Non-Native Plants Perceived to Be More Risky? Factors Influencing Horticulturists' Risk Perceptions of Ornamental Plant Species

PubMed Central

Humair, Franziska; Kueffer, Christoph; Siegrist, Michael

2014-01-01

Horticultural trade is recognized as an important vector in promoting the introduction and dispersal of harmful non-native plant species. Understanding horticulturists' perceptions of biotic invasions is therefore important for effective species risk management. We conducted a large-scale survey among horticulturists in Switzerland (N = 625) to reveal horticulturists' risk and benefit perceptions from ornamental plant species, their attitudes towards the regulation of non-native species, as well as the factors decisive for environmental risk perceptions and horticulturists' willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior. Our results suggest that perceived familiarity with a plant species had a mitigating effect on risk perceptions, while perceptions of risk increased if a species was perceived to be non-native. However, perceptions of the non-native origin of ornamental plant species were often not congruent with scientific classifications. Horticulturists displayed positive attitudes towards mandatory trade regulations, particularly towards those targeted against known invasive species. Participants also expressed their willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior. Yet, positive effects of risk perceptions on the willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior were counteracted by perceptions of benefits from selling non-native ornamental species. Our results indicate that the prevalent practice in risk communication to emphasize the non-native origin of invasive species can be ineffective, especially in the case of species of high importance to local industries and people. This is because familiarity with these plants can reduce risk perceptions and be in conflict with scientific concepts of non-nativeness. In these cases, it might be more effective to focus communication on well-documented environmental impacts of harmful species. PMID:25003195

Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

Impact of Stress and Mitigating Information on Evaluations, Attributions, Affect, Disciplinary Choices, and Expectations of Compliance in Mothers at High and Low Risk for Child Physical Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Paul, Joaquin; Asla, Nagore; Perez-Albeniz, Alicia; De Cadiz, Barbara Torres-Gomez

2006-01-01

The objective is to know if high-risk mothers for child physical abuse differ in their evaluations, attributions, negative affect, disciplinary choices for children's behavior, and expectations of compliance. The effect of a stressor and the introduction of mitigating information are analyzed. Forty-seven high-risk and 48 matched low-risk mothers…

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall: Dam Mitigate Flood Risk in Mekong

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Ruby Leung, L.

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, withmore » more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.« less

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Hydrological modelling in a drinking water catchment area as a means of evaluating pathogen risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergion, Viktor; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Åström, Johan; Lindhe, Andreas; Sörén, Kaisa; Rosén, Lars

2017-01-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases are of great concern to drinking water producers and can give rise to substantial costs to the society. The World Health Organisation promotes an approach where the emphasis is on mitigating risks close to the contamination source. In order to handle microbial risks efficiently, there is a need for systematic risk management. In this paper we present a framework for microbial risk management of drinking water systems. The framework incorporates cost-benefit analysis as a decision support method. The hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was set up for the Stäket catchment area in Sweden, was used to simulate the effects of four different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. The modelling results showed that the two mitigation measures that resulted in a significant (p < 0.05) reduction of Cryptosporidium spp. and Escherichia coli concentrations were a vegetative filter strip linked to cropland and improved treatment (by one Log10 unit) at the wastewater treatment plants. The mitigation measure with a vegetative filter strip linked to grazing areas resulted in a significant reduction of Cryptosporidium spp., but not of E. coli concentrations. The mitigation measure with enhancing the removal efficiency of all on-site wastewater treatment systems (total removal of 2 Log10 units) did not achieve any significant reduction of E. coli or Cryptosporidium spp. concentrations. The SWAT model was useful when characterising the effect of different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. Hydrological modelling implemented within an appropriate risk management framework is a key decision support element as it identifies the most efficient alternative for microbial risk reduction.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-02-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

End-To-End Risk Assesment: From Genes and Protein to Acceptable Radiation Risks for Mars Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Schimmerling, Walter

2000-01-01

The human exploration of Mars will impose unavoidable health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and possibly solar particle events (SPE). It is the goal of NASA's Space Radiation Health Program to develop the capability to predict health risks with significant accuracy to ensure that risks are well below acceptable levels and to allow for mitigation approaches to be effective at reasonable costs. End-to-End risk assessment is the approach being followed to understand proton and heavy ion damage at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels in order to predict the probability of the major health risk including cancer, neurological disorders, hereditary effects, cataracts, and acute radiation sickness and to develop countermeasures for mitigating risks.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

PubMed

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local settings of drinking water systems. The model provides a clear and holistic structure for decisions related to microbial risk mitigation. To improve the decision model, we suggest to further develop the valuation and monetisation of health effects and to refine the propagation of uncertainties and variabilities between the included methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

PubMed Central

Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-01-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

Living with wildfire in Telluride Fire Protection District, Colorado

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Lilia C. Falk; Jamie Gomez; Christopher M. Barth; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Patricia A. Champ

2017-01-01

Residents in the wildland-urban interface can play an important role in reducing wildfires’ negative effects by performing wildfire risk mitigation on their properties. This report offers insight into the wildfire risk mitigation activities and related considerations such as attitudes, experiences, and concern about wildfire, for residents of the Telluride Fire...

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

Identifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Risk of Single-Point Inspections on the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

2004-01-01

In the production of each Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), over 100,000 inspections are performed. ATK Thiokol Inc. reviewed these inspections to ensure a robust inspection system is maintained. The principal effort within this endeavor was the systematic identification and evaluation of inspections considered to be single-point. Single-point inspections are those accomplished on components, materials, and tooling by only one person, involving no other check. The purpose was to more accurately characterize risk and ultimately address and/or mitigate risk associated with single-point inspections. After the initial review of all inspections and identification/assessment of single-point inspections, review teams applied risk prioritization methodology similar to that used in a Process Failure Modes Effects Analysis to derive a Risk Prioritization Number for each single-point inspection. After the prioritization of risk, all single-point inspection points determined to have significant risk were provided either with risk-mitigating actions or rationale for acceptance. This effort gave confidence to the RSRM program that the correct inspections are being accomplished, that there is appropriate justification for those that remain as single-point inspections, and that risk mitigation was applied to further reduce risk of higher risk single-point inspections. This paper examines the process, results, and lessons learned in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risk associated with single-point inspections accomplished in the production of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Cost-effective and robust mitigation of space debris in low earth orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, R.; Martin, C.

It is predicted that the space debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO) will continue to grow and in an exponential manner in the long-term due to an increasing rate of collisions between large objects, unless internationally-accepted space debris mitigation measures are adopted soon. Such measures are aimed at avoiding the future generation of space debris objects and primarily need to be effective in preventing significant long-term growth in the debris population, even in the potential scenario of an increase in future space activity. It is also important that mitigation measures can limit future debris population levels, and therefore the underlying collision risk to space missions, to the lowest extent possible. However, for their wide acceptance, the cost of implementation associated with mitigation measures needs to be minimised as far as possible. Generally, a lower collision risk will cost more to achieve and vice versa, so it is necessary to strike a balance between cost and risk in order to find a cost-effective set of mitigation measures. In this paper, clear criteria are established in order to assess the cost-effectiveness of space debris mitigation measures. A full cost-risk-benefit trade-off analysis of numerous mitigation scenarios is presented. These scenarios consider explosion prevention and post-mission disposal of space systems, including de-orbiting to limited lifetime orbits and re-orbiting above the LEO region. The ESA DELTA model is used to provide long-term debris environment projections for these scenarios as input to the benefit and risk parts of the trade-off analysis. Manoeuvre requirements for the different post-mission disposal scenarios were also calculated in order to define the cost-related element. A 25-year post-mission lifetime de-orbit policy, combined with explosion prevention and mission-related object limitation, was found to be the most cost-effective solution to the space debris problem in LEO. This package would also remain effective after a significant increase in future launch traffic. It was found that the re-orbiting of space systems above the LEO region would not lead to significant collision activity there over the next century. However, above-LEO disposal should be used sparingly because the disposal region could become unstable after a limited number of explosions or collisions due to a lack of air drag to remove the resulting fragments.

Polishing the prism: improving wildfire mitigation planning by coupling landscape and social dimensions

Treesearch

Geoffrey Koch; Alan Ager; Jeff Kline; Paige Fischer

2016-01-01

Effectively addressing wildfire risk to communities on large multi-owner landscapes requires an understanding of the biophysical factors that influence risk, such as fuel loads, topography, and weather, and social factors such as the capacity and willingness for communities to engage in fire-mitigation activities. Biophysical and social processes often are disconnected...

Impact of Risk Perception on Risk Communication and Community Resilience Enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, T. G.; Thompson, C. M.

2014-12-01

Past studies have demonstrated there is a relationship between risk perception, risk tolerance and mitigation planning. When people experience high-risk perception, their risk tolerance is typically lowered causing them to become more likely to support the implementation of mitigation policies including those that are either cost intensive or politically controversial. Understanding stakeholder risk perception could therefore provide information about the likelihood of implementation of various mitigation strategies. Varied risk communication methods are needed to accurately represent community risk so as to better inform decision-making. In response to this need, this research examines the effect of risk perception on community resilience through a case study of Fernan Lake, ID. Researchers conducted a survey of Fernan Lake residents to determine their risk perception of the impact of blue-green algae blooms on community resilience. Survey questions were developed based on traditional risk perception factors like vested interest, social trust, knowledge, possible benefits or losses, relevance to individual and potential for control. The results were used to determine residents' risk perception of the impact of blue green algae blooms on Socio-Ecological System resource availability and future development and growth potential. Focus groups were then conducted to validate the survey results. Research results demonstrate that residents are concerned about the impacts of blue-green algae blooms, but the level of interest in acting on those concerns and their willingness to consider more aggressive mitigation strategies varies across the study area. This research demonstrates the need for varied risk communication approaches, depending upon community mitigation goals.

GO/NO-GO - When is medical hazard mitigation acceptable for launch?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Douglas R.; Polk, James D.

2005-01-01

Medical support of spaceflight missions is composed of complex tasks and decisions that dedicated to maintaining the health and performance of the crew and the completion of mission objectives. Spacecraft represent one of the most complex vehicles built by humans, and are built to very rigorous design specifications. In the course of a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) or a mission itself, the flight surgeon must be able to understand the impact of hazards and risks that may not be completely mitigated by design alone. Some hazards are not mitigated because they are never actually identified. When a hazard is identified, it must be reduced or waivered. Hazards that cannot be designed out of the vehicle or mission, are usually mitigated through other means to bring the residual risk to an acceptable level. This is possible in most engineered systems because failure modes are usually predictable and analysis can include taking these systems to failure. Medical support of space missions is complicated by the inability of flight surgeons to provide "exact" hazard and risk numbers to the NASA engineering community. Taking humans to failure is not an option. Furthermore, medical dogma is mostly comprised of "medical prevention" strategies that mitigate risk by examining the behaviour of a cohort of humans similar to astronauts. Unfortunately, this approach does not lend itself well for predicting the effect of a hazard in the unique environment of space. This presentation will discuss how Medical Operations uses an evidence-based approach to decide if hazard mitigation strategies are adequate to reduce mission risk to acceptable levels. Case studies to be discussed will include: 1. Risk of electrocution risk during EVA 2. Risk of cardiac event risk during long and short duration missions 3. Degraded cabin environmental monitoring on the ISS. Learning Objectives 1.) The audience will understand the challenges of mitigating medical risk caused by nominal and off-nominal mission events. 2.) The audience will understand the process by which medical hazards are identified and mitigated before launch. 3.) The audience will understand the roles and responsibilities of all the other flight control positions in participating in the process of reducing hazards and reducing medical risk to an acceptable level.

Transfusion-related acute lung injury risk mitigation: an update.

PubMed

Otrock, Z K; Liu, C; Grossman, B J

2017-11-01

Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is a life-threatening complication of transfusion. Greater understanding of the pathophysiology of this syndrome has much improved during the last two decades. Plasma-containing components from female donors with leucocyte antibodies were responsible for the majority of TRALI fatalities before mitigation strategies were implemented. Over the past 15 years, measures to mitigate risk for TRALI have been implemented worldwide and they continued to evolve with time. The AABB requires that all plasma containing components and whole blood for transfusion must be collected from men, women who have not been pregnant, or women who have tested negative for human leucocyte antigen antibodies. Although the incidence of TRALI has decreased following the institution of TRALI mitigation strategies, TRALI is still the most common cause of transfusion-associated death in the United States. In this review, we focus on TRALI risk mitigation strategies. We describe the measures taken by blood collection facilities to reduce the risk of TRALI in the United States, Canada and European countries. We also review the literature for the effectiveness of these measures. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

[Investigation into the capacity for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation in managing public health emergencies in China].

PubMed

Hu, Guo-qing; Rao, Ke-qin; Sun, Zhen-qiu

2007-08-01

To investigate the capacity for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation in public health emergency management in China. Four provinces were randomly selected using stratified sampling. All the municipalities under these four provinces were assessed using the 3rd subscale (Risk Identification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation) of Preparedness and Response Capacity Questionnaire for Public Health Emergencies Used in Provincial or Municipal Governments, which was developed by the Center for Health Statistics and Information, Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China. Sixty of 66 questionnaires (90.91%) were collected. Among 60 investigated municipalities, 35 (58%) identified the potential public health emergencies, 17 (28%) assessed the risks for the identified emergencies, and 5 (8%) conducted risk assessments for the locally accident-prone factories, mines, corporations, and big establishments, 6 (10%) identified the priorities in public health emergency management based on risk assessment, 6 (10%) developed special prevention strategies for main public health emergencies, 3 (5%) assessed the vulnerability of local residents to public health emergencies, and 34 (57%) assessed or were assessing the preparedness and response capacity for public health emergencies in the past 2 years. The mean of standard total score for risk identification, assessment, and mitigation was 24.05 (95% CI: 18.32, 29.77). Risk identification, assessment, and mitigation still require further improvement in China, and both the central and local authorities should implement more effective and efficient measures.

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

Estimating the effects of Cry1F Bt-maize pollen on non-target Lepidoptera using a mathematical model of exposure

PubMed Central

Perry, Joe N; Devos, Yann; Arpaia, Salvatore; Bartsch, Detlef; Ehlert, Christina; Gathmann, Achim; Hails, Rosemary S; Hendriksen, Niels B; Kiss, Jozsef; Messéan, Antoine; Mestdagh, Sylvie; Neemann, Gerd; Nuti, Marco; Sweet, Jeremy B; Tebbe, Christoph C

2012-01-01

In farmland biodiversity, a potential risk to the larvae of non-target Lepidoptera from genetically modified (GM) Bt-maize expressing insecticidal Cry1 proteins is the ingestion of harmful amounts of pollen deposited on their host plants. A previous mathematical model of exposure quantified this risk for Cry1Ab protein. We extend this model to quantify the risk for sensitive species exposed to pollen containing Cry1F protein from maize event 1507 and to provide recommendations for management to mitigate this risk. A 14-parameter mathematical model integrating small- and large-scale exposure was used to estimate the larval mortality of hypothetical species with a range of sensitivities, and under a range of simulated mitigation measures consisting of non-Bt maize strips of different widths placed around the field edge. The greatest source of variability in estimated mortality was species sensitivity. Before allowance for effects of large-scale exposure, with moderate within-crop host-plant density and with no mitigation, estimated mortality locally was <10% for species of average sensitivity. For the worst-case extreme sensitivity considered, estimated mortality locally was 99·6% with no mitigation, although this estimate was reduced to below 40% with mitigation of 24-m-wide strips of non-Bt maize. For highly sensitive species, a 12-m-wide strip reduced estimated local mortality under 1·5%, when within-crop host-plant density was zero. Allowance for large-scale exposure effects would reduce these estimates of local mortality by a highly variable amount, but typically of the order of 50-fold. Mitigation efficacy depended critically on assumed within-crop host-plant density; if this could be assumed negligible, then the estimated effect of mitigation would reduce local mortality below 1% even for very highly sensitive species. Synthesis and applications. Mitigation measures of risks of Bt-maize to sensitive larvae of non-target lepidopteran species can be effective, but depend on host-plant densities which are in turn affected by weed-management regimes. We discuss the relevance for management of maize events where cry1F is combined (stacked) with a herbicide-tolerance trait. This exemplifies how interactions between biota may occur when different traits are stacked irrespective of interactions between the proteins themselves and highlights the importance of accounting for crop management in the assessment of the ecological impact of GM plants. PMID:22496596

The cost effectiveness of radon mitigation in existing German dwellings--a decision theoretic analysis.

PubMed

Haucke, Florian

2010-11-01

Radon is a naturally occurring inert radioactive gas found in soils and rocks that can accumulate in dwellings, and is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer. This study aims to analyze the cost effectiveness of different intervention strategies to reduce radon concentrations in existing German dwellings. The cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) was conducted as a scenario analysis, where each scenario represents a specific regulatory regime. A decision theoretic model was developed, which reflects accepted recommendations for radon screening and mitigation and uses most up-to-date data on radon distribution and relative risks. The model was programmed to account for compliance with respect to the single steps of radon intervention, as well as data on the sensitivity/specificity of radon tests. A societal perspective was adopted to calculate costs and effects. All scenarios were calculated for different action levels. Cost effectiveness was measured in costs per averted case of lung cancer, costs per life year gained and costs per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Univariate and multivariate deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (SA) were performed. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were based on Monte Carlo simulations with 5000 model runs. The results show that legal regulations with mandatory screening and mitigation for indoor radon levels >100 Bq/m(3) are most cost effective. Incremental cost effectiveness compared to the no mitigation base case is 25,181 euro (95% CI: 7371 euro-90,593 euro) per QALY gained. Other intervention strategies focussing primarily on the personal responsibility for screening and/or mitigative actions show considerably worse cost effectiveness ratios. However, targeting radon intervention to radon-prone areas is significantly more cost effective. Most of the uncertainty that surrounds the results can be ascribed to the relative risk of radon exposure. It can be concluded that in the light of international experience a legal regulation requiring radon screening and, if necessary, mitigation is justifiable under the terms of CEA. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing Pain and Depressive Symptoms of Chronic Opioid Therapy Patients Receiving Dose Reduction and Risk Mitigation Initiatives With Usual Care.

PubMed

Thakral, Manu; Walker, Rod L; Saunders, Kathleen; Shortreed, Susan M; Parchman, Michael; Hansen, Ryan N; Ludman, Evette; Sherman, Karen J; Dublin, Sascha; Von Korff, Michael

2018-01-01

Dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives have been recommended to reduce opioid-related risks among patients receiving chronic opioid therapy (COT), but questions remain over whether these initiatives worsen pain control and quality of life. In 2014 to 2015, we interviewed 1,588 adult COT patients within a health care system in Washington State and compared those who received dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives in primary care clinics (intervention) with patients in comparable health care settings without initiatives (control). The primary outcomes were pain assessed using the pain, enjoyment, and general activity (PEG) scale, a 3-item scale to assess global pain intensity and interference, with secondary measures including depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-8 scale). Generalized estimating equations for linear regression models were used to estimate differences in mean scores between intervention and control sites. Estimated differences, adjusted for patient characteristics and weighted for nonresponse, between patients at intervention and control clinics were not clinically significant for the PEG (-.03, 95% confidence interval = -.25 to .19) or Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (-.64, 95% confidence interval = -1.19 to -.08). We found no evidence that COT patients in clinics with dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives had clinically meaningful differences in pain intensity, interference with activities and enjoyment of life, or depressive symptoms compared with control health care settings. This article evaluates the effect of dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives, such as those recently recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to reduce risks associated with COT on global pain and interference, depressive symptoms, and perceived pain relief and bothersomeness of side effects. Copyright © 2017 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Managing Research in a Risk World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.

2014-01-01

The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.

12 CFR 217.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... operational risk exposure to reflect qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The Board-regulated...) Qualifying operational risk mitigants. Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is... institution assigns the company is assigned a PD equal to or less than 10 basis points; (ii) Has an initial...

12 CFR 324.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... operational risk exposure to reflect qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The FDIC-supervised...) Qualifying operational risk mitigants. Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is... institution assigns the company is assigned a PD equal to or less than 10 basis points; (ii) Has an initial...

Mycobacterium chimaera infections in post–operative patients exposed to heater–cooler devices: An overview

PubMed Central

Ogunremi, T; Taylor, G; Johnston, L; Amaratunga, K; Muller, M; Coady, A; Defalco, K; Dunn, K; Johnstone, J; Smith, S; Embree, J; Henry, B; Stafford, J

2017-01-01

A multi-country outbreak of Mycobacterium chimaera infection associated with contaminated heater–cooler devices (HCDs) has been reported, with more than 70 cases in Europe and the United States and two cases in Canada to date. The epidemiological and microbiological characteristics of this outbreak provide evidence for common-source transmission of M. chimaera from the exhaust air of intrinsically contaminated HCDs to patients during cardiac surgery. To date, all reported cases have been associated with Stöckert 3T HCDs manufactured at one plant by LivaNova prior to September 2014. Implantation of prosthetic material increases the risk of infection. Infections usually present as prosthetic valve endocarditis, vascular graft infection or disseminated infection. Reported mortality rates have varied, but were often over 40%. Several measures are recommended to facilitate case-finding and mitigate risk of exposure. The feasibility of some risk mitigation measures and their effectiveness in reducing the risk of exposure are yet to be determined. Until HCDs are redesigned in a manner that prevents water contamination and aerosolization, separating the HCD exhaust air from the operating room air during surgery may be the most effective risk mitigation strategy. However, possible unintended consequences of this approach should be considered. This overview summarizes findings from peer-reviewed and other relevant national documents on key features of the outbreak, including the source, identified risk factors for infection, signs and symptoms of infection, burden of disease, risk mitigation measures, management challenges and knowledge gaps.

Mycobacterium chimaera infections in post-operative patients exposed to heater-cooler devices: An overview.

PubMed

Ogunremi, T; Taylor, G; Johnston, L; Amaratunga, K; Muller, M; Coady, A; Defalco, K; Dunn, K; Johnstone, J; Smith, S; Embree, J; Henry, B; Stafford, J

2017-05-04

A multi-country outbreak of Mycobacterium chimaera infection associated with contaminated heater-cooler devices (HCDs) has been reported, with more than 70 cases in Europe and the United States and two cases in Canada to date. The epidemiological and microbiological characteristics of this outbreak provide evidence for common-source transmission of M. chimaera from the exhaust air of intrinsically contaminated HCDs to patients during cardiac surgery. To date, all reported cases have been associated with Stöckert 3T HCDs manufactured at one plant by LivaNova prior to September 2014. Implantation of prosthetic material increases the risk of infection. Infections usually present as prosthetic valve endocarditis, vascular graft infection or disseminated infection. Reported mortality rates have varied, but were often over 40%. Several measures are recommended to facilitate case-finding and mitigate risk of exposure. The feasibility of some risk mitigation measures and their effectiveness in reducing the risk of exposure are yet to be determined. Until HCDs are redesigned in a manner that prevents water contamination and aerosolization, separating the HCD exhaust air from the operating room air during surgery may be the most effective risk mitigation strategy. However, possible unintended consequences of this approach should be considered. This overview summarizes findings from peer-reviewed and other relevant national documents on key features of the outbreak, including the source, identified risk factors for infection, signs and symptoms of infection, burden of disease, risk mitigation measures, management challenges and knowledge gaps.

Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lepinski, James

2013-09-30

A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and themore » potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments were conducted on three (3) sites using the QFMEA model: (1) SACROC Northern Platform CO{sub 2}-EOR Site in the Permian Basin, Scurry County, TX, (2) Pump Canyon CO{sub 2}-ECBM Site in the San Juan Basin, San Juan County, NM, and (3) Farnsworth Unit CO{sub 2}-EOR Site in the Anadarko Basin, Ochiltree County, TX. The sites were sufficiently different from each other to test the robustness of the QFMEA model.« less

Implementation of Risk Management in NASA's CEV Project- Ensuring Mission Success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Jeevan; Holsomback, Jerry D.

2005-12-01

Most project managers know that Risk Management (RM) is essential to good project management. At NASA, standards and procedures to manage risk through a tiered approach have been developed - from the global agency-wide requirements down to a program or project's implementation. The basic methodology for NASA's risk management strategy includes processes to identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate and document risks. The identification, characterization, mitigation plan, and mitigation responsibilities associated with specific risks are documented to help communicate, manage, and effectuate appropriate closure. This approach helps to ensure more consistent documentation and assessment and provides a means of archiving lessons learned for future identification or mitigation activities.A new risk database and management tool was developed by NASA in 2002 and since has been used successfully to communicate, document and manage a number of diverse risks for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and several other NASA projects and programs including at the Johnson Space Center. Organizations use this database application to effectively manage and track each risk and gain insight into impacts from other organization's viewpoint to develop integrated solutions. Schedule, cost, technical and safety issues are tracked in detail through this system.Risks are tagged within the system to ensure proper review, coordination and management at the necessary management level. The database is intended as a day-to- day tool for organizations to manage their risks and elevate those issues that need coordination from above. Each risk is assigned to a managing organization and a specific risk owner who generates mitigation plans as appropriate. In essence, the risk owner is responsible for shepherding the risk through closure. The individual that identifies a new risk does not necessarily get assigned as the risk owner. Whoever is in the best position to effectuate comprehensive closure is assigned as the risk owner. Each mitigation plan includes the specific tasks that will be conducted to either decrease the likelihood of the risk occurring and/or lessen the severity of the consequences if they do occur. As each mitigation task is completed, the responsible managing organization records the completion of the task in the risk database and then re-scores the risk considering the task's results. By keeping scores updated, a managing organization's current top risks and risk posture can be readily identified including the status of any risk in the system.A number of metrics measure risk process trends from data contained in the database. This allows for trend analysis to further identify improvements to the process and assist in the management of all risks. The metrics will also scrutinize both the effectiveness and compliance of risk management requirements.The risk database is an evolving tool and will be continuously improved with capabilities requested by the NASA project community. This paper presents the basic foundations of risk management, the elements necessary for effective risk management, and the capabilities of this new risk database and how it is implemented to support NASA's risk management needs.

Goals, obstacles and effective strategies of wildfire mitigation programs in the Wildland-Urban Interface

Treesearch

Margaret A. Reams; Terry K. Haines; Cheryl R. Renner; Michael W. Wascom; Harish Kingre

2005-01-01

The dramatic expansion into the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) places property, natural assets, and human life at risk from wildfire destruction. The U.S. National Fire Plan encourages communities to implement laws and outreach programs for pre-fire planning to mitigate the risk to area residents. Starting in 2003, we surveyed the administrators of regulatory and...

To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

2012-04-01

With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.

"Why some consumers don't care": Heterogeneity in household responses to a food scandal.

PubMed

Rieger, Jörg; Weible, Daniela; Anders, Sven

2017-06-01

In the aftermath of food scandals, household perceptions about the health risks posed by failures in food safety play a central role in determining their mitigating behavior. A stream of literature has shown that factors including media coverage of a scandal, risk perceptions, trust in food safety information, and consumption habits matter. This paper deviates from the standard assumption of a homogeneous response to media information across all households exposed to a food scandal. Instead, we present an innovative multi-method approach to investigate the impacts of household heterogeneity in underlying psychological and behavioral, media usage patterns and consumption habits on poultry demand in the aftermath of the 2011 German dioxin scandal. The analysis employs weekly retail purchase and matching survey data for 6133 households covering pre and post scandal periods. The supplementary survey data elicits household respondent's risk perceptions and risk attitudes, product label and media information behavior. Initial factor and cluster analysis identify household segments based on psychographic and behavioral indicators. We then estimate a correlated random effect Tobit model to account for clustered household responses to quantify the influence of media effects distinguishing between short-term risk mitigation behavior and longer-term habit persistence. Our results confirm significant heterogeneity in household's media-induced risk-mitigation responses to the dioxin scandal across three clusters. However, we find that habit persistence in the form of consumption preferences for the affected products were able to largely compensate for demand-reducing media effects across household clusters. Considering heterogeneity in household's risk mitigation behaviors to food scandals holds implications for policy makers and food industry alike. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mitigation of indirect environmental effects of GM crops

PubMed Central

Pidgeon, J.D; May, M.J; Perry, J.N; Poppy, G.M

2007-01-01

Currently, the UK has no procedure for the approval of novel agricultural practices that is based on environmental risk management principles. Here, we make a first application of the ‘bow-tie’ risk management approach in agriculture, for assessment of land use changes, in a case study of the introduction of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) sugar beet. There are agronomic and economic benefits, but indirect environmental harm from increased weed control is a hazard. The Farm Scale Evaluation (FSE) trials demonstrated reduced broad-leaved weed biomass and seed production at the field scale. The simplest mitigation measure is to leave a proportion of rows unsprayed in each GMHT crop field. Our calculations, based on FSE data, show that a maximum of 2% of field area left unsprayed is required to mitigate weed seed production and 4% to mitigate weed biomass production. Tilled margin effects could simply be mitigated by increasing the margin width from 0.5 to 1.5 m. Such changes are cheap and simple to implement in farming practices. This case study demonstrates the usefulness of the bow-tie risk management approach and the transparency with which hazards can be addressed. If adopted generally, it would help to enable agriculture to adopt new practices with due environmental precaution. PMID:17439853

Disease Risk Mitigation: The Equivalence of Two Selective Mixing Strategies on Aggregate Contact Patterns & Resulting Epidemic Spread☆

PubMed Central

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

2014-01-01

The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are under-determined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. PMID:25150459

Disease risk mitigation: the equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread.

PubMed

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

2014-12-21

The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are underdetermined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

PubMed

Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

2009-11-01

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

2010-12-01

Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and scientific results obtained so far at the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI). ERI hosts the scientific part focusing on characterization of the plate structure and source faults in and around the Tokyo metropolitan area. One of the topics is ongoing deployment of seismic stations that constitute the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net). We have deployed 226 stations with a 2-5 km interval in space. Based on seismic data obtained from the MeSO-net, we aim to reveal the detailed geometry of the subducting PSP.

44 CFR 201.4 - Standard State Mitigation Plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... reduce risks from natural hazards and serves as a guide for State decision makers as they commit resources to reducing the effects of natural hazards. (b) Planning process. An effective planning process is... risk assessments must characterize and analyze natural hazards and risks to provide a statewide...

National Priorities: PER- AND POLYFLUOROALKYL SUBSTANCES

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA seeks applications for research on identifying communities at high risk of adverse health effects of lead in drinking water, identifying opportunities to mitigate these risks, conduct efforts to inform interested parties of these risks & opportunities.

Ecological impact assessments fail to reduce risk of bat casualties at wind farms.

PubMed

Lintott, Paul R; Richardson, Suzanne M; Hosken, David J; Fensome, Sophie A; Mathews, Fiona

2016-11-07

Demand for renewable energy is rising exponentially. While this has benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, there may be costs to biodiversity [1]. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are the main tool used across the world to predict the overall positive and negative effects of renewable energy developments before planning consent is given, and the Ecological Impact Assessments (EcIAs) within them assess their species-specific effects. Given that EIAs are undertaken globally, are extremely expensive, and are enshrined in legislation, their place in evidence-based decision making deserves evaluation. Here we assess how well EIAs of wind-farm developments protect bats. We found they do not predict the risks to bats accurately, and even in those cases where high risk was correctly identified, the mitigation deployed did not avert the risk. Given that the primary purpose of an EIA is to make planning decisions evidence-based, our results indicate that EIA mitigation strategies used to date have been ineffective in protecting bats. In the future, greater emphasis should be placed on assessing the actual impacts post-construction and on developing effective mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Impact of stress and mitigating information on evaluations, attributions, affect, disciplinary choices, and expectations of compliance in mothers at high and low risk for child physical abuse.

PubMed

De Paúl, Joaquín; Asla, Nagore; Pérez-Albéniz, Alicia; de Cádiz, Bárbara Torres-Gómez

2006-08-01

The objective is to know if high-risk mothers for child physical abuse differ in their evaluations, attributions, negative affect, disciplinary choices for children's behavior, and expectations of compliance. The effect of a stressor and the introduction of mitigating information are analyzed. Forty-seven high-risk and 48 matched low-risk mothers participated in the study. Mothers' information processing and disciplinary choices were examined using six vignettes depicting a child engaging in different transgressions. A four-factor design with repeated measures on the last two factors was used. High-risk mothers reported more hostile intent, global and internal attributions, more use of power assertion discipline, and less induction. A risk group by child transgression interaction and a risk group by mitigating information interaction were found. Results support the social information-processing model of child physical abuse, which suggests that high-risk mothers process child-related information differently and use more power assertive and less inductive disciplinary techniques.

Radon and lung cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed Central

Ford, E S; Kelly, A E; Teutsch, S M; Thacker, S B; Garbe, P L

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the cost-effectiveness of general and targeted strategies for residential radon testing and mitigation in the United States. METHODS: A decision-tree model was used to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of preventing radon-associated deaths from lung cancer. RESULTS: For a radon threshold of 4 pCi/L, the estimated costs to prevent 1 lung cancer death are about $3 million (154 lung cancer deaths prevented), or $480,000 per life-year saved, based on universal radon screening and mitigation, and about $2 million (104 lung cancer deaths prevented), or $330,000 per life-year saved, if testing and mitigation are confined to geographic areas at high risk for radon exposure. For mitigation undertaken after a single screening test and after a second confirmatory test, the estimated costs are about $920,000 and $520,000, respectively, to prevent a lung cancer death with universal screening and $130,000 and $80,000 per life-year for high risk screening. The numbers of preventable lung cancer deaths are 811 and 527 for universal and targeted approaches, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest possible alternatives to current recommendations. PMID:10076484

Multiple Adaptation Types with Mitigation: A Framework for Policy Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Effective climate policy will consist of mitigation and adaptation implemented simultaneously in a policy portfolio to reduce the risks of climate change. The relative share of these responses will vary over time and will be adjusted in response to new information. Furthermore,...

Supply chain risk management in newspaper company: House of risk approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnasari, Sintya; Hisjam, Muhammad; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2018-02-01

In the supply chain (SC) of newspapers, the printing company is the main entity that has several processes, i.e. procure raw materials, print plate and newspapers, and also distribute newspaper to consumers. The existing risks in the newspaper printing company are quite high. A wide range of disturbances or risks needs to be identified to map out the characteristics of the risk sources that will impact on the performance of the supply chain. Therefore, the printing companies need to manage their supply chain risk of the five major SC processes (such as plan, source, deliver, make, and return). In a case study of a newspaper company in Surakarta, the company have not implemented a risk management process that affects the company. This study is aimed to map the risks in the printing company and formulate risk mitigation alternatives to mitigate the risks. The house of risk (HOR) method was chosen to select a set of proactive actions deemed cost-effective in managing SC Risks in the newspaper company. The model consisting of two stages, the first stage (HOR1) was done by identifying risk, risk causing agents and then measured the severity and occurrences to calculate the Aggregate Risk Priority (ARP) value. The second stage (HOR2) is intended to formulate and prioritize the action of mitigation that the company should pursue to reduce the probability of risk agents to occur. The result shows that the innovative model of HOR in Newspaper Company was presented. There are 24 risk events, 20 causing agents and two priority risks in HOR1. The HOR 2 was proposed 9 ranks of mitigation strategy for priority risk agents, from the easiest to the hardest strategy for the company to implement it.

A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.

How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

2016-04-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

Defining "Acceptable Risk" for Earthquakes Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, B.

2001-05-01

The greatest and most rapidly growing earthquake risk for mortality is in developing countries. Further, earthquake risk management actions of the last 50 years have reduced the average lethality of earthquakes in earthquake-threatened industrialized countries. (This is separate from the trend of the increasing fiscal cost of earthquakes there.) Despite these clear trends, every new earthquake in developing countries is described in the media as a "wake up" call, announcing the risk these countries face. GeoHazards International (GHI) works at both the community and the policy levels to try to reduce earthquake risk. GHI reduces death and injury by helping vulnerable communities recognize their risk and the methods to manage it, by raising awareness of its risk, building local institutions to manage that risk, and strengthening schools to protect and train the community's future generations. At the policy level, GHI, in collaboration with research partners, is examining whether "acceptance" of these large risks by people in these countries and by international aid and development organizations explains the lack of activity in reducing these risks. The goal of this pilot project - The Global Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) - is to develop and evaluate a means of measuring the risk and the effectiveness of risk mitigation actions in the world's largest, most vulnerable cities: in short, to develop an earthquake risk index. One application of this index is to compare the risk and the risk mitigation effort of "comparable" cities. By this means, Lima, for example, can compare the risk of its citizens dying due to earthquakes with the risk of citizens in Santiago and Guayaquil. The authorities of Delhi and Islamabad can compare the relative risk from earthquakes of their school children. This index can be used to measure the effectiveness of alternate mitigation projects, to set goals for mitigation projects, and to plot progress meeting those goals. The preliminary results suggest that the comparisons of the participating cities are easily understood, and defensible. The evaluation of the sources of El Salvador's risk, made before the January 13th earthquake, pointed to the vulnerability made visible by the earthquake: earthquake-induced landslides, and difficulties with emergency response.

Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

2015-04-01

Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation options was presented to the local community. The options were based on a thorough stakeholder involvement process ending up in three different views on how to deal with the landslide risk situation: i) protect lives and properties (hierarchical) ; ii) careful stewardship of the mountains (egalitarian); and iii) rational individual choice (individualist).

Effects of radon mitigation vs smoking cessation in reducing radon-related risk of lung cancer.

PubMed Central

Mendez, D; Warner, K E; Courant, P N

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this paper is to provide smokers with information on the relative benefits of mitigating radon and quitting smoking in reducing radon-related lung cancer risk. METHODS: The standard radon risk model, linked with models characterizing residential radon exposure and patterns of moving to new homes, was used to estimate the risk reduction produced by remediating high-radon homes, quitting smoking, or both. RESULTS: Quitting smoking reduces lung cancer risk from radon more than does reduction of radon exposure itself. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers should understand that, in addition to producing other health benefits, quitting smoking dominates strategies to deal with the problem posed by radon. PMID:9585753

How CO2 Leakage May Impact the Role of Geologic Carbon Storage in Climate Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, C. A.; Deng, H.; Bielicki, J. M.; Fitts, J. P.; Oppenheimer, M.

2014-12-01

Among CCUS technologies (Carbon Capture Utilization and Sequestration), geological storage of CO2 has a large potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but confidence in its deployment is often clouded by the possibility and cost of leakage. In this study, we took the Michigan sedimentary basin as an example to investigate the monetized risks associated with leakage, using the Risk Interference of Subsurface CO2 Storage (RISCS) model. The model accounts for spatial heterogeneity and variability of hydraulic properties of the subsurface system and permeability of potential leaking wells. In terms of costs, the model quantifies the financial consequences of CO2 escaping back to the atmosphere as well as the costs incurred if CO2 or brine leaks into overlying formations and interferes with other subsurface activities or resources. The monetized leakage risks derived from the RISCS model were then used to modify existing cost curves by shifting them upwards and changing their curvatures. The modified cost curves were used in the integrated assessment model - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model), which provides policy-relevant results to help inform the potential role of CCUS in future energy systems when carbon mitigation targets and incentives are in place. The results showed that the extent of leakage risks has a significant effect on the extent of CCUS deployment. Under more stringent carbon mitigation policies such as a high carbon tax, higher leakage risks can be afforded and incorporating leakage risks will have a smaller impact on CCUS deployment. Alternatively, if the leakage risks were accounted for by charging a fixed premium, similar to how the risk of nuclear waste disposal is treated, the contribution of CCUS in mitigating climate change varies, depending on the value of the premium.

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

PubMed Central

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence. PMID:24825660

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation.

PubMed

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W; Storlazzi, Curt D; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C; Airoldi, Laura

2014-05-13

The world's coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

Hydrological and thermal effects of hydropeaking on early life stages of salmonids: A modelling approach for implementing mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Casas-Mulet, Roser; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Alfredsen, Knut Tore

2016-12-15

Alterations in hydrological and thermal regimes can potentially affect salmonid early life stages development and survival. The dewatering of salmon spawning redds due to hydropeaking can lead to mortality in early life stages, with higher impact on the alevins as they have lower tolerance to dewatering than the eggs. Flow-related mitigation measures can reduce early life stage mortality. We present a set of modelling tools to assess impacts and mitigation options to minimise the risk of mortality in early life stages in hydropeaking rivers. We successfully modelled long-term hydrological and thermal alterations and consequences for development rates. We estimated the risk of early life stages mortality and assessed the cost-effectiveness of implementing three release-related mitigation options (A,B,C). The economic cost of mitigation was low and ranged between 0.7% and 2.6% of the annual hydropower production. Options reducing the flow during spawning (B and C) in addition to only release minimum flows during development (A) were considered more effective for egg and alevin survival. Options B and C were however constraint by water availability in the system for certain years, and therefore only option A was always feasible. The set of modelling tools used in this study were satisfactory and their applications can be useful especially in systems where little field data is available. Targeted measures built on well-informed modelling tools can be tested on their effectiveness to mitigate dewatering effects vs. the hydropower system capacity to release or conserve water for power production. Environmental flow releases targeting specific ecological objectives can provide better cost-effective options than conventional operational rules complying with general legislation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

2015-08-01

Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

USDA southwest regional hub for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made ...

77 FR 57070 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-17

... their behavior to mitigate that threat. Type of information collected will include (1) risk perceptions... and Climate Change: Risk Mitigation Behaviors of Homeowners. OMB Control Number: 0596-New. Summary of... risk to human and ecosystem health. In efforts to mitigate this risk the U.S. Forest Service (FS) uses...

National Priorities: Transdisciplinary Research into Detecting and Controlling Lead in Drinking Water

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA seeks applications for research on identifying communities at high risk of adverse health effects of lead in drinking water, identifying opportunities to mitigate these risks, conduct efforts to inform interested parties of these risks & opportunities.

Mitigating risk in academic preclinical drug discovery.

PubMed

Dahlin, Jayme L; Inglese, James; Walters, Michael A

2015-04-01

The number of academic drug discovery centres has grown considerably in recent years, providing new opportunities to couple the curiosity-driven research culture in academia with rigorous preclinical drug discovery practices used in industry. To fully realize the potential of these opportunities, it is important that academic researchers understand the risks inherent in preclinical drug discovery, and that translational research programmes are effectively organized and supported at an institutional level. In this article, we discuss strategies to mitigate risks in several key aspects of preclinical drug discovery at academic drug discovery centres, including organization, target selection, assay design, medicinal chemistry and preclinical pharmacology.

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing System (MPwise): Its Description and Application to Earthquake Risk Mitigation.

PubMed

Boxberger, Tobias; Fleming, Kevin; Pittore, Massimiliano; Parolai, Stefano; Pilz, Marco; Mikulla, Stefan

2017-10-20

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation.

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing System (MPwise): Its Description and Application to Earthquake Risk Mitigation

PubMed Central

Boxberger, Tobias; Fleming, Kevin; Pittore, Massimiliano; Parolai, Stefano; Pilz, Marco; Mikulla, Stefan

2017-01-01

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation. PMID:29053608

Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: a case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Bryan, Brett A; Kandulu, John; Deere, Daniel A; White, Monique; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Crossman, Neville D

2009-07-01

Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution 'barrier' in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocusing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets.

The effectiveness of mitigation for reducing radon risk in single-family Minnesota homes.

PubMed

Steck, Daniel J

2012-09-01

Increased lung cancer incidence has been linked with long-term exposure to elevated residential radon. Experimental studies have shown that soil ventilation can be effective in reducing radon concentrations in single-family homes. Most radon mitigation systems in the U.S. are installed by private contractors. The long-term effectiveness of these systems is not well known, since few state radon programs regulate or independently confirm post-mitigation radon concentrations. The effectiveness of soil ventilation systems in Minnesota was measured for 140 randomly selected clients of six professional mitigators. Homeowners reported pre-mitigation radon screening concentrations that averaged 380 Bq m (10.3 pCi L). Long term post-mitigation radon measurements on the two lowest floors show that, even years after mitigation, 97% of these homes have concentrations below the 150 Bq m U.S. Environmental Protection Agency action level. The average post-mitigation radon in the houses was 30 Bq m, an average observed reduction of >90%. If that reduction was maintained over the lifetime of the 1.2 million Minnesotans who currently reside in single-family homes with living space radon above the EPA action level, approximately 50,000 lives could be extended for nearly two decades by preventing radon-related lung cancers.

Weighing the Risks of Nuclear Energy and Climate Change: Trust in Different Information Sources, Perceived Risks, and Willingness to Pay for Alternatives to Nuclear Power.

PubMed

Vainio, Annukka; Paloniemi, Riikka; Varho, Vilja

2017-03-01

We examined how individuals perceive nuclear energy in the context of climate change mitigation and how their perceptions are associated with trust in different risk information sources. We analyzed the interrelationships between trust, perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, perception of nuclear energy as an acceptable way to mitigate climate change, and willingness to pay (WTP) for alternatives to nuclear power. A nationwide survey (N = 967) collected in Finland was analyzed with structural equation modeling. The associations between trust and perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, and perception of nuclear power as a way to mitigate climate change varied by the type of information source. Political party support and other background variables were associated with trust in different information sources. The effect of trust in information sources on WTP was mediated by perceived risks and benefits. The results will increase our understanding of how individuals perceive nuclear energy as a way to cut CO 2 emissions and the role of trust in different information sources in shaping nuclear risk perceptions and energy choices. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems.

PubMed

Cao, Chun; Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang; Jia, Hui-Hui; Wang, Jun-Jian

2016-08-01

Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of personalized and interactive health risk calculators: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Harle, Christopher A; Downs, Julie S; Padman, Rema

2012-01-01

Risk calculators are popular websites that provide individualized disease risk assessments to the public. Little is known about their effect on risk perceptions and health behavior. This study sought to test whether risk calculator features-namely, personalized estimates of one's disease risk and feedback about the effects of risk-mitigating behaviors-improve risk perceptions and motivate healthy behavior. A web-based experimental study using simple randomization was conducted to compare the effects of 3 prediabetes risk communication websites. Setting The study was conducted in the context of ongoing health promotion activities sponsored by a university's human resources office. Patients Participants were adult university employees. Intervention The control website presented nonindividualized risk information. The personalized noninteractive website presented individualized risk calculations. The personalized interactive website presented individualized risk calculations and feedback about the effects of hypothetical risk-mitigating behaviors. Measurements Pre- and postintervention risk perceptions were measured in absolute and relative terms. Health behavior was measured by assessing participant interest in follow-up preventive health services. On average, risk perceptions decreased by 2%. There was no general effect of personalization or interactivity in aligning subjective risk perceptions with objective risk calculations or in increasing healthy behaviors. However, participants who previously overestimated their risk reduced their perceptions by 16%. This was a significantly larger change than the 2% increase by participants who underestimated their risk. Limitations Results may not generalize to different populations, different diseases, or longer-term outcomes. Compared to nonpersonalized information, individualized risk calculators had little positive effect on prediabetes risk perception accuracy or health behavior. Risk perception accuracy was improved in people who receive relatively "good news" about risk rather than "bad news."

Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

PubMed

Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

2017-02-01

Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roux, Izak Johannes, III

Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-15

manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved... the random variable of interest is viewed in concert with a related random vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original... manage , predict and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved situation faced

Project Recon

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-14

Management tool • Current Risk Recon functionality • Issues Recon & Opportunity Recon – Launching Fall 2012 • FMEA and Lessons Learned – Planned Future...Lessons learned UNCLASSIFIED Integrated Risk Management FMEA Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Risk Recon Fields from FMEA software pre...populate Risk Info sheet. Risk Mitigation from Risk Recon trace back and populate FMEA , new RPN numbers. Issues Recon When a risk becomes an issue

Mitigation of wildfire risk by homeowners

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2005-01-01

In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as important as perceptions of wildfire risk in determining likelihood of implementation. These mitigation...

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.; Jones, Scott M.

2017-01-01

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

MO-D-213-02: Quality Improvement Through a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis of Pediatric External Beam Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gray, J; Lukose, R; Bronson, J

2015-06-15

Purpose: To conduct a failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) as per AAPM Task Group 100 on clinical processes associated with teletherapy, and the development of mitigations for processes with identified high risk. Methods: A FMEA was conducted on clinical processes relating to teletherapy treatment plan development and delivery. Nine major processes were identified for analysis. These steps included CT simulation, data transfer, image registration and segmentation, treatment planning, plan approval and preparation, and initial and subsequent treatments. Process tree mapping was utilized to identify the steps contained within each process. Failure modes (FM) were identified and evaluated with amore » scale of 1–10 based upon three metrics: the severity of the effect, the probability of occurrence, and the detectability of the cause. The analyzed metrics were scored as follows: severity – no harm = 1, lethal = 10; probability – not likely = 1, certainty = 10; detectability – always detected = 1, undetectable = 10. The three metrics were combined multiplicatively to determine the risk priority number (RPN) which defined the overall score for each FM and the order in which process modifications should be deployed. Results: Eighty-nine procedural steps were identified with 186 FM accompanied by 193 failure effects with 213 potential causes. Eighty-one of the FM were scored with a RPN > 10, and mitigations were developed for FM with RPN values exceeding ten. The initial treatment had the most FM (16) requiring mitigation development followed closely by treatment planning, segmentation, and plan preparation with fourteen each. The maximum RPN was 400 and involved target delineation. Conclusion: The FMEA process proved extremely useful in identifying previously unforeseen risks. New methods were developed and implemented for risk mitigation and error prevention. Similar to findings reported for adult patients, the process leading to the initial treatment has an associated high risk.« less

12 CFR 37.8 - Safety and soundness requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... effective risk management and control processes over its debt cancellation contracts and debt suspension... manage the risks associated with debt cancellation contracts and debt suspension agreements in accordance... the products. A bank also should assess the adequacy of its internal control and risk mitigation...

12 CFR 37.8 - Safety and soundness requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... effective risk management and control processes over its debt cancellation contracts and debt suspension... manage the risks associated with debt cancellation contracts and debt suspension agreements in accordance... the products. A bank also should assess the adequacy of its internal control and risk mitigation...

Mitigating flood exposure: Reducing disaster risk and trauma signature.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city's worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods . We applied the "trauma signature analysis" (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results . Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion . In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation.

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

PubMed

Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

2018-02-01

Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The third hans cloos lecture. Urban landslides: Socioeconomic impacts and overview of mitigative strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, R.L.; Highland, L.M.

2007-01-01

As a result of population pressures, hillsides in the world's urban areas are being developed at an accelerating rate. This development increases the risk for urban landslides triggered by rainfall or earthquake activity. To counter this risk, four approaches have been employed by landslide managers and urban planners: (1) restricting development in landslide-prone areas; (2) implementing and enforcing excavation, grading, and construction codes; (3) protecting existing developments by physical mitigation measures and (4) developing and installing monitoring and warning systems. Where they have been utilized, these approaches generally have been effective in reducing the risk due to landslide hazards. In addition to these practices, landslide insurance holds promise as a mitigative measure by reducing the financial impact of landslides on individual property owners. Until recently, however, such insurance has not been widely available and, where it is available, it is so expensive that it has been little used. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

What motivates individuals to protect themselves from risks: the case of wildland fires.

PubMed

Martin, Ingrid M; Bender, Holly; Raish, Carol

2007-08-01

This research investigates the cognitive perceptual process that homeowners go through when faced with the decision to protect themselves from the risk of wildfires. This decision can be examined by looking at the interaction between the integrated protection motivation theory-transtheoretical model and different levels of homeowners' subjective knowledge related to wildfire risks. We investigated the role of motivation, decision stages of risk readiness, and subjective knowledge on the number of risk-mitigating actions undertaken by homeowners living in high-risk communities. The results indicate that homeowners who are in an early or precontemplative stage (both low and high subjective knowledge) as well as low knowledge contemplatives are motivated by their perceived degree of vulnerability to mitigate the risk. In contrast, high knowledge contemplatives' potential behavioral changes are more likely to be motivated by increasing their perceptions of the severity of the risk. Risk-mitigating behaviors undertaken by high knowledge action homeowners are influenced by their perceptions of risk severity, self-efficacy, and response efficacy. In contrast, the low knowledge action homeowners engage in risk reduction behaviors without the influence of any of the PMT variables; demonstrating their motivation to emulate others in their community. These results have implications for the type of information that should be used to effectively communicate risks in an effort to influence the diverse homeowner segments to engage in risk-reduction behaviors.

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

2010-01-01

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different

Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-07

vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved... the random variable of interest is viewed in concert with a related random vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original...measures of risk. They view a random variable of interest in concert with an auxiliary random vector that helps to manage , predict and mitigate the risk

Communicating Environmental Risks: Clarifying the Severity Effect in Interpretations of Verbal Probability Expressions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam

2011-01-01

Verbal probability expressions are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, uses them to convey risks associated with climate change. Given the potential for human action to mitigate future environmental risks, it is important to understand how people respond to these…

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

2015-01-01

Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

Mitigating risk in academic preclinical drug discovery

PubMed Central

Dahlin, Jayme L.; Inglese, James; Walters, Michael A.

2018-01-01

The number of academic drug discovery centres has grown considerably in recent years, providing new opportunities to couple the curiosity-driven research culture in academia with rigorous preclinical drug discovery practices used in industry. To fully realize the potential of these opportunities, it is important that academic researchers understand the risks inherent in preclinical drug discovery, and that translational research programmes are effectively organized and supported at an institutional level. In this article, we discuss strategies to mitigate risks in several key aspects of preclinical drug discovery at academic drug discovery centres, including organization, target selection, assay design, medicinal chemistry and preclinical pharmacology. PMID:25829283

A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

PubMed

Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

2012-09-01

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

12 CFR 3.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Qualification requirements for incorporation of... qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The national bank's or Federal savings association's.... Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is provided by an unaffiliated company...

Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

jones, Harry

2005-01-01

NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

2015-08-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Living in a tinderbox: wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

2013-01-01

The loss of homes to wildfires is an important issue in the USA and other countries. Yet many homeowners living in fire-prone areas do not undertake mitigating actions, such as clearing vegetation, to decrease the risk of losing their home. To better understand the complexity of wildfire risk-mitigation decisions and the role of perceived risk, we conducted a survey of...

Comparative Analysis of Supply Risk-Mitigation Strategies for Critical Byproduct Minerals: A Case Study of Tellurium.

PubMed

Bustamante, Michele L; Gaustad, Gabrielle; Alonso, Elisa

2018-01-02

Materials criticality assessment is a screening framework increasingly applied to identify materials of importance that face scarcity risks. Although these assessments highlight materials for the implicit purpose of informing future action, the aggregated nature of their findings make them difficult to use for guidance in developing nuanced mitigation strategy and policy response. As a first step in the selection of mitigation strategies, the present work proposes a modeling framework and accompanying set of metrics to directly compare strategies by measuring effectiveness of risk reduction as a function of the features of projected supply demand balance over time. The work focuses on byproduct materials, whose criticality is particularly important to understand because their supplies are inherently less responsive to market balancing forces, i.e., price feedbacks. Tellurium, a byproduct of copper refining, which is critical to solar photovoltaics, is chosen as a case study, and three commonly discussed byproduct-relevant strategies are selected: dematerialization of end-use product, byproduct yield improvement, and end-of-life recycling rate improvement. Results suggest that dematerialization will be nearly twice as effective at reducing supply risk as the next best option, yield improvement. Finally, due to its infrequent use at present and its dependence upon long product lifespans, recycling end-of-life products is expected to be the least effective option despite potentially offering other benefits (e.g., cost savings and environmental impact reduction).

Use of Space Technology in Flood Mitigation (Western Province, Zambia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulando, A.

2001-05-01

Disasters, by definition are events that appear suddenly and with little warning. They are usually short lived, with extreme events bringing death, injury and destruction of buildings and communications. Their aftermath can be as damaging as their physical effects through destruction of sanitation and water supplies, destruction of housing and breakdown of transport for food, temporary shelter and emergency services. Since floods are one of the natural disasters which endanger both life and property, it becomes vital to know its extents and where the hazards exists. Flood disasters manifest natural processes on a larger scale and information provided by Remote Sensing is a most appropriate input to analysis of actual events and investigations of potential risks. An analytical and qualitative image processing and interpretation of Remotely Sensed data as well as other data such as rainfall, population, settlements not to mention but a few should be used to derive good mitigation strategies. Since mitigation is the cornerstone of emergency management, it therefore becomes a sustained action that will reduce or eliminate long term risks to people and property from natural hazards such as floods and their effects. This will definitely involve keeping of homes and other sensitive structures away from flood plains. Promotion of sound land use planning based on this known hazard, "FLOODS" is one such form of mitigation that can be applied in flood affected areas within flood plain. Therefore future mitigation technologies and procedures should increasingly be based on the use of flood extent information provided by Remote Sensing Satellites like the NOAA AVHRR as well as information on the designated flood hazard and risk areas.

MSBIS: A Multi-Step Biomedical Informatics Screening Approach for Identifying Medications that Mitigate the Risks of Metoclopramide-Induced Tardive Dyskinesia.

PubMed

Xu, Dong; Ham, Alexandrea G; Tivis, Rickey D; Caylor, Matthew L; Tao, Aoxiang; Flynn, Steve T; Economen, Peter J; Dang, Hung K; Johnson, Royal W; Culbertson, Vaughn L

2017-12-01

In 2009 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) placed a black box warning on metoclopramide (MCP) due to the increased risks and prevalence of tardive dyskinesia (TD). In this study, we developed a multi-step biomedical informatics screening (MSBIS) approach leveraging publicly available bioactivity and drug safety data to identify concomitant drugs that mitigate the risks of MCP-induced TD. MSBIS includes (1) TargetSearch (http://dxulab.org/software) bioinformatics scoring for drug anticholinergic activity using CHEMBL bioactivity data; (2) unadjusted odds ratio (UOR) scoring for indications of TD-mitigating effects using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS); (3) adjusted odds ratio (AOR) re-scoring by removing the effect of cofounding factors (age, gender, reporting year); (4) logistic regression (LR) coefficient scoring for confirming the best TD-mitigating drug candidates. Drugs with increasing TD protective potential and statistical significance were obtained at each screening step. Fentanyl is identified as the most promising drug against MCP-induced TD (coefficient: -2.68; p-value<0.01). The discovery is supported by clinical reports that patients fully recovered from MCP-induced TD after fentanyl-induced general anesthesia. Loperamide is identified as a potent mitigating drug against a broader range of drug-induced movement disorders through pharmacokinetic modifications. Using drug-induced TD as an example, we demonstrated that MSBIS is an efficient in silico tool for unknown drug-drug interaction detection, drug repurposing, and combination therapy design. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Construction Project Administration and Management for Mitigating Work Zone Accidents and Fatalities: An Integrated Risk Management Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

The goal of this research is to mitigate the risk of highway accidents (crashes) and fatalities in work zones. The approach of this research has been to address the mitigation of work zone crashes through the creation of a formal risk management mode...

76 FR 7614 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-10

... of orderly markets by helping to mitigate the potential risks associated with legging stock option... orderly markets by helping to mitigate the potential risks associated with legging stock option orders, e... markets by helping to mitigate potential risks associated with the legging of stock-option orders...

Report on the Effects of Parachutes on Risk Mitigation to Third Party Property and Individuals

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-03-01

This report looks at what research has been done to evaluate the public's risk by descent of a payload from its orbital or suborbital flight. Compared is the difference in risk between a parachute descent and that in free fall. The research indicates...

76 FR 72645 - Calculation of Maximum Obligation Limitation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-25

... United States and the use of OLA would avoid or mitigate such adverse effects. Under the systemic risk... the designated Federal agencies to the Secretary to make a systemic risk determination must include a... similar to the way that systemic risk determinations are made under section 13 of the Federal Deposit...

Valuing risks to the environment

Treesearch

Robin Gregory; Thomas C. Brown; Jack L. Knetsch

1996-01-01

Increasing awareness of exposure to environmental risks has focused attention on measures that would give greater assurance that such risks are effectively managed and that the adverse consequences of risky activities are mitigated. Implementing such actions is made more difficult by the uncertainties of environmental changes, their often delayed impacts, the great...

Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

2005-07-01

The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

In-vehicle work zone messages : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

Work zones present an increased risk to drivers and the work crew. To mitigate these risks, this study investigated the : potential effects of in-vehicle messages to communicate work zone events to the driver. The researchers conducted : literature r...

Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donovan, K.

2014-12-01

When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

Mitigating flood exposure

PubMed Central

Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

2013-12-01

Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted population centers with poor enforcement of building codes, unrealistic expectations of warning systems or failures to understand local seismic damage mechanisms; and the interaction of land use restriction strategies and responsive warning strategies around lahar-prone volcanoes. A more complete understanding of the interactions between these different types of mitigation strategy, especially the consequences for the expectations and behaviors of the populations at risk, requires models of decision-making under high levels of both uncertainty and danger. The Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) loop model (Boyd, 1987) may be a particularly useful model. It emphasizes the importance of 'orientation' (the interpretation of observations and assessment of their significance for the observer and decision-maker), the feedback between decisions and subsequent observations and orientations, and the importance of developing mitigation strategies that are flexible and so able to respond to the occurrence of the unexpected. REFERENCE: Boyd, J.R. A Discourse on Winning and Losing [http://dnipogo.org/john-r-boyd/

Bridging the Divide between Safety and Risk Management for your Project or Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutomski, Mike

2005-01-01

This presentation will bridge the divide between these separate but overlapping disciplines and help explain how to use Risk Management as an effective management decision support tool that includes safety. Risk Management is an over arching communication tool used by management to prioritize and effectively mitigate potential problems before they concur. Risk Management encompasses every kind of potential problem that can occur on a program or project. Some of these are safety issues such as hazards that have a specific likelihood and consequence that need to be controlled and included to show an integrated picture of accepted) mitigated, and residual risk. Integrating safety and other assurance disciplines is paramount to accurately representing a program s or projects risk posture. Risk is made up of several components such as technical) cost, schedule, or supportability. Safety should also be a consideration for every risk. The safety component can also have an impact on the technical, cost, and schedule aspect of a given risk. The current formats used for communication of safety and risk issues are not consistent or integrated. The presentation will explore the history of these disciplines, current work to integrate them, and suggestions for integration for the future.

Current-use pesticides in stream water and suspended particles following runoff: exposure, effects, and mitigation requirements.

PubMed

Bereswill, Renja; Streloke, Martin; Schulz, Ralf

2013-06-01

The European Union's directive for sustainable use of pesticides requires implementing risk mitigation measures at streams threatened by pesticide entries. The need for mitigation measures was investigated at 10 stream sites within an intensively used arable region in central Germany by characterizing pesticide exposure following edge-of-field runoff and effects on the aquatic macroinvertebrates. Moreover, the influence of riparian buffer strip width (as a mitigation measure) at the sampling sites was considered. Generally, invertebrate fauna was dominated by pesticide-tolerant species, suggesting a high pesticide exposure at almost all sites. This result is also reflected by the elevated levels of suspended particle contamination in terms of toxic units (logTUMax  > -2), corresponding to one-hundredth of the median lethal concentration (LC50) to Daphnia magna. At two sites that received high aqueous-phase entries of the pyrethroid lambda-cyhalothrin (logTUMax  > -0.6), the abundance and number of sensitive species in terms of the species at risk index decreased during the pesticide application period. In contrast, no acute significant negative effects on macroinvertebrates were observed at sites characterised by low water-phase toxicity (logTUMax  < -3.5). An influence of riparian buffer strip width on pesticide exposure was not observed, supposedly because of the presence of erosion rills and ephemeral ditches. In conclusion, results show that mitigation measures (such as the improvement of currently present riparian buffer strips) are needed in the study area. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

Treesearch

Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2015-01-01

Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

The Application of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Methodology to Intrathecal Drug Delivery for Pain Management

PubMed Central

Patel, Teresa; Fisher, Stanley P.

2016-01-01

Objective This study aimed to utilize failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to transform clinical insights into a risk mitigation plan for intrathecal (IT) drug delivery in pain management. Methods The FMEA methodology, which has been used for quality improvement, was adapted to assess risks (i.e., failure modes) associated with IT therapy. Ten experienced pain physicians scored 37 failure modes in the following categories: patient selection for therapy initiation (efficacy and safety concerns), patient safety during IT therapy, and product selection for IT therapy. Participants assigned severity, probability, and detection scores for each failure mode, from which a risk priority number (RPN) was calculated. Failure modes with the highest RPNs (i.e., most problematic) were discussed, and strategies were proposed to mitigate risks. Results Strategic discussions focused on 17 failure modes with the most severe outcomes, the highest probabilities of occurrence, and the most challenging detection. The topic of the highest‐ranked failure mode (RPN = 144) was manufactured monotherapy versus compounded combination products. Addressing failure modes associated with appropriate patient and product selection was predicted to be clinically important for the success of IT therapy. Conclusions The methodology of FMEA offers a systematic approach to prioritizing risks in a complex environment such as IT therapy. Unmet needs and information gaps are highlighted through the process. Risk mitigation and strategic planning to prevent and manage critical failure modes can contribute to therapeutic success. PMID:27477689

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Ruby Leung, L.; Li, Hong-Yi; Zhao, Jianshi; Tian, Fuqiang; Yang, Kun; Sothea, Khem

2017-10-01

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large-scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-LMK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the LMRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, stream regulation by dam reduces flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

2017-01-01

For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

Managing Risk for Cassini During Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MOandDA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witkowski, Mona M.

2002-01-01

A Risk Management Process has been tailored for Cassini that not only satisfies the requirements of NASA and JPL, but also allows the Program to proactively identify and assess risks that threaten mission objectives. Cassini Risk Management is a team effort that involves both management and engineering staff. The process is managed and facilitated by the Mission Assurance Manager (MAM), but requires regular interactions with Program Staff and team members to instill the risk management philosophy into the day to day mission operations. While Risk Management is well defined for projects in the development phase, it is a relatively new concept for Mission Operations. The Cassini team has embraced this process and has begun using it in an effective, proactive manner, to ensure mission success. It is hoped that the Cassini Risk Management Process will form the basis by which risk management is conducted during MO&DA on future projects. proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working put into place will become visible and will be illusmted in future papers.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual's endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that "localising" climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

A portfolio approach to evaluating natural hazard mitigation policies: An Application to lateral-spread ground failure in Coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.; Dinitz, L.B.; Rabinovici, S.J.M.; Evans, A.M.

2001-01-01

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site-specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate-scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard, and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does: However, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Julie Gilbertson-Day

2010-01-01

This report was designed to meet three broad goals: (1) evaluate wildfire hazard on Federal lands; (2) develop information useful in prioritizing where fuels treatments and mitigation measures might be proposed to address significant fire hazard and risk; and (3) develop risk-based performance measures to document the effectiveness of fire management programs. The...

Can Disaster Risk Education Reduce the Impacts of Recurring Disasters on Developing Societies?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baytiyeh, Hoda

2018-01-01

The impacts of recurring disasters on vulnerable urban societies have been tragic in terms of destruction and fatalities. However, disaster risk education that promotes risk mitigation and disaster preparedness has been shown to be effective in minimizing the impacts of recurring disasters on urban societies. Although the recent integration of…

Angular Impact Mitigation System for Bicycle Helmets to Reduce Head Acceleration and Risk of Traumatic Brain Injury

PubMed Central

Hansen, Kirk; Dau, Nathan; Feist, Florian; Deck, Caroline; Willinger, Rémy; Madey, Steven M.; Bottlang, Michael

2013-01-01

Angular acceleration of the head is a known cause of traumatic brain injury (TBI), but contemporary bicycle helmets lack dedicated mechanisms to mitigate angular acceleration. A novel Angular Impact Mitigation (AIM) system for bicycle helmets has been developed that employs an elastically suspended aluminum honeycomb liner to absorb linear acceleration in normal impacts as well as angular acceleration in oblique impacts. This study tested bicycle helmets with and without AIM technology to comparatively assess impact mitigation. Normal impact tests were performed to measure linear head acceleration. Oblique impact tests were performed to measure angular head acceleration and neck loading. Furthermore, acceleration histories of oblique impacts were analyzed in a computational head model to predict the resulting risk of TBI in the form of concussion and diffuse axonal injury (DAI). Compared to standard helmets, AIM helmets resulted in a 14% reduction in peak linear acceleration (p < 0.001), a 34% reduction in peak angular acceleration (p < 0.001), and a 22% to 32% reduction in neck loading (p < 0.001). Computational results predicted that AIM helmets reduced the risk of concussion and DAI by 27% and 44%, respectively. In conclusion, these results demonstrated that AIM technology could effectively improve impact mitigation compared to a contemporary expanded polystyrene-based bicycle helmet, and may enhance prevention of bicycle-related TBI. Further research is required. PMID:23770518

Defining the Synthetic Biology Supply Chain.

PubMed

Frazar, Sarah L; Hund, Gretchen E; Bonheyo, George T; Diggans, James; Bartholomew, Rachel A; Gehrig, Lindsey; Greaves, Mark

Several recent articles have described risks posed by synthetic biology and spurred vigorous discussion in the scientific, commercial, and government communities about how to best detect, prevent, regulate, and respond to these risks. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's (PNNL) deep experience working with dual-use technologies for the nuclear industry has shown that analysis of supply chains can reveal security vulnerabilities and ways to mitigate security risk without hindering beneficial research and commerce. In this article, a team of experts in synthetic biology, data analytics, and national security describe the overall supply chain surrounding synthetic biology to illustrate new insights about the effectiveness of current regulations, the possible need for different screening approaches, and new technical solutions that could help identify or mitigate risks in the synthetic biology supply chain.

Tradespace and Affordability - Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-09

assessment options Cost-effectiveness, risk reduction leverage/ROI, rework avoidance Tool, data, scenario availability Contract Number: H98230-08-D-0171...Prepare FED assessment plans and earned value milestones Try to relate earned value to risk -exposure avoided rather than budgeted cost F. Begin...evaluate and iterate plans and enablers I. Assess readiness for Commitment Review Shortfalls identified as risks and covered by risk mitigation

Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

USGS Publications Warehouse

Real, Charles R.; Johnson, Laurie; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Kontar, Y.A.; Santiago-Fandiño, V.; Takahashi, T.

2014-01-01

California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKinley, David

2008-01-01

The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

Recommendations to mitigate against human health risks incurred due to energetic particle irradiation beyond low earth orbit/BLEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna-Lawlor, Susan; Bhardwaj, Anil; Ferrari, Franco; Kuznetsov, Nikolay; Lal, Ajay K.; Li, Yinghui; Nagamatsu, Aiko; Nymmik, Rikho; Panasyuk, Michael; Petrov, Vladislav; Reitz, Günther; Pinsky, Lawrence; Shukor, Muszaphar (Sheikh); Singhvi, Ashok K.; Straube, Ulrich; Tomi, Leena; Lawrence, Townsend

2015-04-01

An account is provided of the main sources of energetic particle radiation in interplanetary space (Galactic Cosmic Radiation and Solar Energetic Particles) and career dose limits presently utilized by NASA to mitigate against the cancer and non-cancer effects potentially incurred by astronauts due to irradiation by these components are presented. Certain gaps in knowledge that presently militate against mounting viable human exploration in deep space due to the inherent health risks are identified and recommendations made as to how these gaps might be closed within a framework of global international cooperation.

Probing Aircraft Flight Test Hazard Mitigation for the Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails & Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Research Team

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails & Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Project Integration Manager requested in July 2012 that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) form a team to independently assess aircraft structural failure hazards associated with the ACCESS experiment and to identify potential flight test hazard mitigations to ensure flight safety. The ACCESS Project Integration Manager subsequently requested that the assessment scope be focused predominantly on structural failure risks to the aircraft empennage raft empennage.

An attempt to implement tools to support examination of community-based activities for disaster mitigation: A case study in Toyokawa city, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karashima, Kazuki; Ohgai, Akira

2017-10-01

Japan is a country with a high risk for earthquake disasters. The measures used to promote structures' seismic safety, such as reconstruction, widening narrow roads, and the response capacities to deal with huge earthquakes are important. Techniques to support the examination of countermeasures to huge earthquakes are required. To improve this capability, the authors developed tools to: (1) evaluate fire-spread risk, (2) evaluate the difficulty of emergency response and evacuation, and (3) evaluate capacities of neighborhood communities for disaster mitigation. The usefulness of the tools was clarified by the demonstration experiments of previous studies. The next step was implementation of the tools in community-based activities for disaster mitigation. This study aimed to clarify the usability and problems of implementing the tools in community-based activities. The tools were used at several workshops in actual community-based activities for disaster mitigation for one year. After the last workshop, interviews and a questionnaire were conducted on municipal staff and consultant staff. The results found that the tools visually showed the fire-spread risk, the difficulty of evacuation under current conditions and after improvements, and the effects of each disaster mitigation activity. The users could easily explore the draft plans to promote seismic safety of urban structures and response capabilities. The tools were positively incorporated into some community-based activities for disaster mitigation. Thus, the tools have the possibility of successful use at continuing community-based activities and the possibility of implementing the tools will be promoted.

The Bellagio Report: Cardiovascular risks of spaceflight: implications for the future of space travel.

PubMed

Sides, Marian B; Vernikos, Joan; Convertino, Victor A; Stepanek, Jan; Tripp, Lloyd D; Draeger, Jorg; Hargens, Alan R; Kourtidou-Papadeli, Chrysoula; Pavy-LeTraon, Anne; Russomano, Thais; Wong, Julielynn Y; Buccello, Regina R; Lee, Peter H; Nangalia, Vishal; Saary, M Joan

2005-09-01

Long-duration space missions, as well as emerging civilian tourist space travel activities, prompted review and assessment of data available to date focusing on cardiovascular risk and available risk mitigation strategies. The goal was the creation of tools for risk priority assessments taking into account the probability of the occurrence of an adverse cardiovascular event and available and published literature from spaceflight data as well as available risk mitigation strategies. An international group of scientists convened in Bellagio, Italy, in 2004 under the auspices of the Aerospace Medical Association to review available literature for cardiac risks identified in the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (versions 2000, 2004). This effort led to the creation of a priority assessment framework to allow for an objective assessment of the hazard, probability of its occurrence, mission impact, and available risk mitigation measures. Spaceflight data are presented regarding evidence/ no evidence of cardiac dysrhythmias, cardiovascular disease, and cardiac function as well as orthostatic intolerance, exercise capacity, and peripheral resistance in presyncopal astronauts compared to non-presyncopal astronauts. Assessment of the priority of different countermeasures was achieved with a tabular framework with focus on probability of occurrence, mission impact, compliance, practicality, and effectiveness of countermeasures. Special operational settings and circumstances related to sensitive portions of any mission and the impact of environmental influences on mission effectiveness are addressed. The need for development of diagnostic tools, techniques, and countermeasure devices, food preparation, preservation technologies and medication, as well as an infrastructure to support these operations are stressed. Selected countermeasure options, including artificial gravity and pharmacological countermeasures need to be systematically evaluated and validated in flight, especially after long-duration exposures. Data need to be collected regarding the emerging field of suborbital and orbital civilian space travel, to allow for sound risk assessment.

Risk mitigation by waste-based permeable reactive barriers for groundwater pollution control at e-waste recycling sites.

PubMed

Beiyuan, Jingzi; Tsang, Daniel C W; Yip, Alex C K; Zhang, Weihua; Ok, Yong Sik; Li, Xiang-Dong

2017-02-01

Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) have proved to be a promising passive treatment to control groundwater contamination and associated human health risks. This study explored the potential use of low-cost adsorbents as PRBs media and assessed their longevity and risk mitigation against leaching of acidic rainfall through an e-waste recycling site, of which Cu, Zn, and Pb were the major contaminants. Batch adsorption experiments suggested a higher adsorption capacity of inorganic industrial by-products [acid mine drainage sludge (AMDS) and coal fly ash (CFA)] and carbonaceous recycled products [food waste compost (FWC) and wood-derived biochar] compared to natural inorganic minerals (limestone and apatite). Continuous leaching tests of sand columns with 10 wt% low-cost adsorbents were then conducted to mimic the field situation of acidic rainfall infiltration through e-waste-contaminated soils (collected from Qingyuan, China) by using synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) solution. In general, Zn leached out first, followed by Cu, and finally delayed breakthrough of Pb. In the worst-case scenario (e.g., at initial concentrations equal to 50-fold of average SPLP result), the columns with limestone, apatite, AMDS, or biochar were effective for a relatively short period of about 20-40 pore volumes of leaching, after which Cu breakthrough caused non-cancer risk concern and later-stage Pb leaching considerably increased both non-cancer and lifetime cancer risk associated with portable use of contaminated water. In contrast, the columns with CFA or FWC successfully mitigated overall risks to an acceptable level for a prolonged period of 100-200 pore volumes. Therefore, with proper selection of low-cost adsorbents (or their mixture), waste-based PRBs is a technically feasible and economically viable solution to mitigate human health risk due to contaminated groundwater at e-waste recycling sites.

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK.

PubMed

Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Dimitroulopoulou, Chrysanthi; Thornes, John; Lai, Ka-Man; Taylor, Jonathon; Myers, Isabella; Heaviside, Clare; Mavrogianni, Anna; Shrubsole, Clive; Chalabi, Zaid; Davies, Michael; Wilkinson, Paul

2015-12-01

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thurman, J.

Can operating companies cost-effectively manage environmental risks, meet compliance requirements and attain financial and market-oriented goals? Yes, if top management fully supports incorporating environmental-risk issues into the corporate management system. Using evaluation tools such as risk assessment and environmental audits, operators can fully define their environment condition and risk level. Working these results, HPI companies can take action to reduce the probability of environmental accidents and mitigate adverse event effects. Adopting this top-down, proactive outlook, organizations can evade environmental catastrophes, avoid negative public image and prevent ruined reputations.

Hurricane risk mitigation - High Pressure Gas Facility

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-07-29

A worker pours concrete as part of a nitrogen risk mitigation project at the High Pressure Gas Facility at Stennis Space Center. The concrete slab will provide the foundation needed to place new pumps at the site and is part of ongoing hurricane-related mitigation work at Stennis.

Hurricane risk mitigation - High Pressure Gas Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

A worker pours concrete as part of a nitrogen risk mitigation project at the High Pressure Gas Facility at Stennis Space Center. The concrete slab will provide the foundation needed to place new pumps at the site and is part of ongoing hurricane-related mitigation work at Stennis.

EconoMe-Develop - a calculation tool for multi-risk assessment and benefit-cost-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bründl, M.

2012-04-01

Public money is used to finance the protection of human life, material assets and the environment against natural hazards. This limited resource should be used in a way that it achieves the maximum possible effect by minimizing as many risks as possible. Hence, decision-makers are facing the question which mitigation measures should be prioritised. Benefit-Cost-Analysis (BCA) is a recognized method for determining the economic efficiency of investments in mitigation measures. In Switzerland, the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) judges the benefit-cost-ratio of mitigation projects on the base of the results of the calculation tool "EconoMe" [1]. The check of the economic efficiency of mitigation projects with an investment of more than 1 million CHF (800,000 EUR) by using "EconoMe" is mandatory since 2008 in Switzerland. Within "EconoMe", most calculation parameters cannot be changed by the user allowing for comparable results. Based on the risk guideline "RIKO" [2] an extended version of the operational version of "EconoMe", called "EconoMe-Develop" was developed. "EconoMe-Develop" is able to deal with various natural hazard processes and thus allows multi-risk assessments, since all restrictions of the operational version of "EconoMe" like e.g. the number of scenarios and expositions, vulnerability, spatial probability of processes and probability of presence of objects, are not existing. Additionally, the influences of uncertainty of calculation factors, like e.g. vulnerability, on the final results can be determined. "EconoMe-Develop" offers import and export of data, e.g. results of GIS-analysis. The possibility for adapting the tool to user specific requirements makes EconoMe-Develop an easy-to-use tool for risk assessment and assessment of economic efficiency of mitigation projects for risk experts. In the paper we will present the most important features of the tool and we will illustrate the application by a practical example.

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

2011-01-01

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

The Link Between Mental Illness and Firearm Violence: Implications for Social Policy and Clinical Practice

PubMed Central

Rozel, John S.; Mulvey, Edward P.

2018-01-01

The United States has substantially higher levels of firearm violence than most other developed countries. Firearm violence is a significant and preventable public health crisis. Mental illness is a weak risk factor for violence despite popular misconceptions reflected in the media and policy. That said, mental health professionals play a critical role in assessing their patients for violence risk, counseling about firearm safety, and guiding the creation of rational and evidence-based public policy that can be effective in mitigating violence risk without unnecessarily stigmatizing people with mental illness. This article summarizes existing evidence about the interplay among mental illness, violence, and firearms, with particular attention paid to the role of active symptoms, addiction, victimization, and psychosocial risk factors. The social and legal context of firearm ownership is discussed as a preface to exploring practical, evidence-driven, and behaviorally informed policy recommendations for mitigating firearm violence risk. PMID:28375722

The Link Between Mental Illness and Firearm Violence: Implications for Social Policy and Clinical Practice.

PubMed

Rozel, John S; Mulvey, Edward P

2017-05-08

The United States has substantially higher levels of firearm violence than most other developed countries. Firearm violence is a significant and preventable public health crisis. Mental illness is a weak risk factor for violence despite popular misconceptions reflected in the media and policy. That said, mental health professionals play a critical role in assessing their patients for violence risk, counseling about firearm safety, and guiding the creation of rational and evidence-based public policy that can be effective in mitigating violence risk without unnecessarily stigmatizing people with mental illness. This article summarizes existing evidence about the interplay among mental illness, violence, and firearms, with particular attention paid to the role of active symptoms, addiction, victimization, and psychosocial risk factors. The social and legal context of firearm ownership is discussed as a preface to exploring practical, evidence-driven, and behaviorally informed policy recommendations for mitigating firearm violence risk.

Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

2015-01-01

Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

Public Health Considerations Associated with the Location and Operation of Off-Leash Dog Parks.

PubMed

Rahim, Tissa; Barrios, Pablo Romero; McKee, Geoffrey; McLaws, Melissa; Kosatsky, Tom

2018-04-01

Off-leash dog parks may enhance human health, but may also lead to health risk through infection or canine aggression. Published evidence was reviewed to examine positive and negative public health impacts of off-leash dog parks, as well as strategies for enhancing benefits and mitigating risks. Evidence suggests that off-leash dog parks can benefit physical and social health, as well as community connectedness. While studies have documented shedding of zoonotic agents in dog parks, the risk of transmission to humans is relatively unknown. Evidence on the risk of dog bites in off-leash dog parks is also limited. Case-examples from North American off-leash dog parks highlight the importance of park location/design, public adherence to safe and hygienic practices, and effective regulatory strategies for mitigating potential risks and maximizing the benefits of off-leash dog parks.

Cost shared wildfire risk mitigation in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado: Survey evidence on participation and willingness to pay

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Travis Warziniack; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

2014-01-01

Wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners who do not mitigate the wildfire risk on their properties impose a negative externality on society. To reduce the social costs of wildfire and incentivise homeowners to take action, cost sharing programs seek to reduce the barriers that impede wildfire risk mitigation. Using survey data from a WUI community in western Colorado...

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

PubMed

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

A Multi-stage Carcinogenesis Model to Investigate Caloric Restriction as a Potential Tool for Post-irradiation Mitigation of Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Tani, Shusuke; Blyth, Benjamin John; Shang, Yi; Morioka, Takamitsu; Kakinuma, Shizuko; Shimada, Yoshiya

2016-01-01

The risk of radiation-induced cancer adds to anxiety in low-dose exposed populations. Safe and effective lifestyle changes which can help mitigate excess cancer risk might provide exposed individuals the opportunity to pro-actively reduce their cancer risk, and improve mental health and well-being. Here, we applied a mathematical multi-stage carcinogenesis model to the mouse lifespan data using adult-onset caloric restriction following irradiation in early life. We re-evaluated autopsy records with a veterinary pathologist to determine which tumors were the probable causes of death in order to calculate age-specific mortality. The model revealed that in both irradiated and unirradiated mice, caloric restriction reduced the age-specific mortality of all solid tumors and hepatocellular carcinomas across most of the lifespan, with the mortality rate dependent more on age owing to an increase in the number of predicted rate-limiting steps. Conversely, irradiation did not significantly alter the number of steps, but did increase the overall transition rate between the steps. We show that the extent of the protective effect of caloric restriction is independent of the induction of cancer from radiation exposure, and discuss future avenues of research to explore the utility of caloric restriction as an example of a potential post-irradiation mitigation strategy. PMID:27390741

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

Treesearch

Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

Framework and methodology for supply chain lifecycle analytics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamlet, Jason; Eames, Brandon K.; Kao, Gio K.

The various technologies presented herein relate to pertaining to identifying and mitigating risks and attacks on a supply chain. A computer-implemented representation of a supply chain is generated comprising nodes (locations) and edges (objects, information). Risk to attack and different attack vectors can be defined for the various nodes and edges, and further, based upon the risks and attacks, (difficulty, consequence) pairs can be determined. One or more mitigations can be generated to increase a difficulty of attack and/or reduce consequence of an attack. The one or more mitigations can be constrained, e.g., by cost, time, etc., to facilitate determinationmore » of how feasible a respective mitigation is to implement with regard to finances available, duration to implement, etc. A context-free grammar can be utilized to identify one or more attacks in the supply chain. Further, the risks can undergo a ranking to enable mitigation priority to be determined.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winkler, Mirko S., E-mail: mirko.winkler@unibas.c; NewFields, LLC, Pretoria 0062; Divall, Mark J., E-mail: mdivall@newfields.co

In the developing world, large-scale projects in the extractive industry and natural resources sectors are often controversial and associated with long-term adverse health consequences to local communities. In many industrialised countries, health impact assessment (HIA) has been institutionalized for the mitigation of anticipated negative health effects while enhancing the benefits of projects, programmes and policies. However, in developing country settings, relatively few HIAs have been performed. Hence, more HIAs with a focus on low- and middle-income countries are needed to advance and refine tools and methods for impact assessment and subsequent mitigation measures. We present a promising HIA approach, developedmore » within the frame of a large gold-mining project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The articulation of environmental health areas, the spatial delineation of potentially affected communities and the use of a diversity of sources to obtain quality baseline health data are utilized for risk profiling. We demonstrate how these tools and data are fed into a risk analysis matrix, which facilitates ranking of potential health impacts for subsequent prioritization of mitigation strategies. The outcomes encapsulate a multitude of environmental and health determinants in a systematic manner, and will assist decision-makers in the development of mitigation measures that minimize potential adverse health effects and enhance positive ones.« less

Perception of Urban Environmental Risks and the Effects of Urban Green Infrastructures (UGIs) on Human Well-being in Four Public Green Spaces of Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Duan, Junya; Wang, Yafei; Fan, Chen; Xia, Beicheng; de Groot, Rudolf

2018-05-28

Cities face many challenging environmental problems that affect human well-being. Environmental risks can be reduced by Urban Green Infrastructures (UGIs). The effects of UGIs on the urban environment have been widely studied, but less attention has been given to the public perception of these effects. This paper presents the results of a study in Guangzhou, China, on UGI users' perceptions of these effects and their relationship with sociodemographic variables. A questionnaire survey was conducted in four public green spaces. Descriptive statistics, a binary logistic regression model and cross-tabulation analysis were applied on the data from 396 valid questionnaires. The results show that UGI users were more concerned about poor air quality and high temperature than about flooding events. Their awareness of environmental risks was partly in accordance with official records. Regarding the perception of the impacts of environmental risks on human well-being, elderly and female respondents with higher education levels were the most sensitive to these impacts. The respondents' perceptions of these impacts differed among the different green spaces. The effects of UGIs were well perceived and directly observed by the UGI users, but were not significantly influenced by most sociodemographic variables. Moreover, tourists had a lower perception of the impacts of environmental risks and the effects of UGI than residents did. This study provides strong support for UGIs as an effective tool to mitigate environmental risks. Local governments should consider the role of UGIs in environmental risk mitigation and human well-being with regard to urban planning and policy making.

Importation of beef from countries infected with foot and mouth disease: a review of risk mitigation measures.

PubMed

Sutmoller, P

2001-12-01

Risk mitigation measures to reduce the risks associated with importing beef from countries affected by foot and mouth disease (FMD) consist of controls at the farm of origin, inspection of slaughterhouses and maturation and deboning of carcasses. This assessment evaluates the effect of these measures on the mitigation of the risks presented by meat from cattle with FMD, for each of the different stages of the disease. The four disease stages considered are the incubation period, the period of clinical signs, convalescence and the carrier stage. Efficient animal health systems, disease surveillance, and ante-mortem and post-mortem inspection of all cattle effectively reduce the risk of FMD transmission from cattle slaughtered during the period of clinical signs or convalescence. These measures fail if the cattle are slaughtered during the incubation period, because of the absence of clinical signs. Cattle in this stage of the infection are likely to be viraemic, with FMD virus present in the skeletal muscles. Maturation of the carcasses of viraemic cattle reduces the risk of virus presence in the beef. In addition, deboning and removal of the principal lymph nodes and large blood vessels eliminate a source of FMD contamination of the beef. However, the slaughter of viraemic cattle creates an additional hazard of gross environmental viral contamination of the slaughterhouse facilities. Therefore, the maturation process may create a false sense of security, and the emphasis should instead be placed on disease surveillance within the infected zone and on the farms of origin, to prevent the slaughter of herds that are incubating FMD. Cattle slaughtered during the carrier stage do not pose a risk for the international beef trade.

Modeling with uncertain science: estimating mitigation credits from abating lead poisoning in Golden Eagles.

PubMed

Fitts Cochrane, Jean; Lonsdorf, Eric; Allison, Taber D; Sanders-Reed, Carol A

2015-09-01

Challenges arise when renewable energy development triggers "no net loss" policies for protected species, such as where wind energy facilities affect Golden Eagles in the western United States. When established mitigation approaches are insufficient to fully avoid or offset losses, conservation goals may still be achievable through experimental implementation of unproven mitigation methods provided they are analyzed within a framework that deals transparently and rigorously with uncertainty. We developed an approach to quantify and analyze compensatory mitigation that (1) relies on expert opinion elicited in a thoughtful and structured process to design the analysis (models) and supplement available data, (2) builds computational models as hypotheses about cause-effect relationships, (3) represents scientific uncertainty in stochastic model simulations, (4) provides probabilistic predictions of "relative" mortality with and without mitigation, (5) presents results in clear formats useful to applying risk management preferences (regulatory standards) and selecting strategies and levels of mitigation for immediate action, and (6) defines predictive parameters in units that could be monitored effectively, to support experimental adaptive management and reduction in uncertainty. We illustrate the approach with a case study characterized by high uncertainty about underlying biological processes and high conservation interest: estimating the quantitative effects of voluntary strategies to abate lead poisoning in Golden Eagles in Wyoming due to ingestion of spent game hunting ammunition.

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A.; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research. PMID:25922938

Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Deanne K.; Gisladottir, Gudrun; Dominey-Howes, Dale

2010-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education. Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified. In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns should focus on: (a) increasing tourists' knowledge of Katla, jökulhlaup and other volcanic hazards and (b) increasing tourist and employee awareness of the early warning and information system and appropriate behavioural response if a warning is issued. Further, tourism employees should be required to participate in emergency training and evacuation exercises annually. These efforts are timely given that Katla is expected to erupt in the near future and international tourism is an expanding industry in Þórsmörk.

Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

PubMed

Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

2016-11-01

Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

2015-01-01

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

78 FR 5409 - Ongoing Equivalence Verifications of Foreign Food Regulatory Systems

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-25

... of data shared. Finally, with respect to POE re-inspections, NACMPI recommended the targeting of high-risk product and high-risk imports for sampling and other verification activities during reinspection... authority; the availability of contingency plans in the country for containing and mitigating the effects of...

A defined, plant-based diet utilized in an outpatient cardiovascular clinic effectively treats hypercholesterolemia and hypertension and reduces medications.

PubMed

Najjar, Rami S; Moore, Carolyn E; Montgomery, Baxter D

2018-03-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major economic burden in the United States. CVD risk factors, particularly hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, are typically treated with drug therapy. Five-year efficacy of such drugs to prevent CVD is estimated to be 5%. Plant-based diets have emerged as effective mitigators of these risk factors. The implementation of a defined, plant-based diet for 4 weeks in an outpatient clinical setting may mitigate CVD risk factors and reduce patient drug burden. Participants consumed a plant-based diet consisting of foods prepared in a defined method in accordance with a food-classification system. Participants consumed raw fruits, vegetables, seeds, and avocado. All animal products were excluded from the diet. Participant anthropometric and hemodynamic data were obtained weekly for 4 weeks. Laboratory biomarkers were collected at baseline and at 4 weeks. Medication needs were assessed weekly. Data were analyzed using paired-samples t tests and 1-way repeated-measures ANOVA. Significant reductions were observed for systolic (-16.6 mmHg) and diastolic (-9.1 mmHg) blood pressure (P < 0.0005), serum lipids (P ≤ 0.008), and total medication usage (P < 0.0005). Other CVD risk factors, including weight (P < 0.0005), waist circumference (P < 0.0005), heart rate (P = 0.018), insulin (P < 0.0005), glycated hemoglobin (P = 0.002), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P = 0.001) were also reduced. A defined, plant-based diet can be used as an effective therapeutic strategy in the clinical setting to mitigate cardiovascular risk factors and reduce patient drug burden. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dichmann, Donald

2016-01-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) user manual (version 2006.01.18)

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Fredrick B. Pierson; David E. Hall; Corey A. Moffet; Louise E. Ashmun

2007-01-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective post-fire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. To aid in this assessment, the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed. This user manual describes the input parameters, input interface, model...

Incentives for mitigation investment and more effective risk management: the need for public-private partnerships.

PubMed

Kunreuther, H

2001-09-14

A key question facing both well-developed industrial countries and emerging economies is how to reduce future disaster losses while still providing financial protection to victims from these events. This paper proposes a strategy for the use of cost-effective risk mitigation measures coupled with insurance and/or new capital market instruments to achieve these objectives. The mix of these measures will depend on the governance structure and the institutional arrangements in the particular country. There will always be a need for a combination of policy tools and the interaction among key interested parties from both the private and public sectors in developing a disaster management strategy. Two examples, one from US and the other from Honduras, illustrate differences between strategies that countries can adopt.

A public health hazard mitigation planning process.

PubMed

Griffith, Jennifer M; Kay Carpender, S; Crouch, Jill Artzberger; Quiram, Barbara J

2014-01-01

The Texas A&M Health Science Center School of Rural Public Health, a member of the Training and Education Collaborative System Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center (TECS-PERLC), has long-standing partnerships with 2 Health Service Regions (Regions) in Texas. TECS-PERLC was contracted by these Regions to address 2 challenges identified in meeting requirements outlined by the Risk-Based Funding Project. First, within Metropolitan Statistical Areas, there is not a formal authoritative structure. Second, preexisting tools and processes did not adequately satisfy requirements to assess public health, medical, and mental health needs and link mitigation strategies to the Public Health Preparedness Capabilities, which provide guidance to prepare for, respond to, and recover from public health incidents. TECS-PERLC, with its partners, developed a framework to interpret and apply results from the Texas Public Health Risk Assessment Tool (TxPHRAT). The 3-phase community engagement-based TxPHRAT Mitigation Planning Process (Mitigation Planning Process) and associated tools facilitated the development of mitigation plans. Tools included (1) profiles interpreting TxPHRAT results and identifying, ranking, and prioritizing hazards and capability gaps; (2) a catalog of intervention strategies and activities linked to hazards and capabilities; and (3) a template to plan, evaluate, and report mitigation planning efforts. The Mitigation Planning Process provided a framework for Regions to successfully address all funding requirements. TECS-PERLC developed more than 60 profiles, cataloged and linked 195 intervention strategies, and developed a template resulting in 20 submitted mitigation plans. A public health-focused, community engagement-based mitigation planning process was developed by TECS-PERLC and successfully implemented by the Regions. The outcomes met all requirements and reinforce the effectiveness of academic practice partnerships and importance of community engagement in mitigation planning. Additional funding has been approved to expand the Mitigation Planning Process to all counties in Texas with local health departments.

40 CFR 761.120 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... with the particular spill. These factors may mitigate expected exposures and risks or make cleanup to... spill situations in which site-specific risk factors may warrant additional cleanup to more stringent... numerical decontamination levels is clearly unwarranted because of risk-mitigating factors, that compliance...

40 CFR 761.120 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... with the particular spill. These factors may mitigate expected exposures and risks or make cleanup to... spill situations in which site-specific risk factors may warrant additional cleanup to more stringent... numerical decontamination levels is clearly unwarranted because of risk-mitigating factors, that compliance...

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David L; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-01-03

For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 °C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 °C, or other limits such as 3 °C or 1.5 °C, across a wide range of scenarios.

A Coupled Economic and Physical Model of Coastal Adaptation and Abandonment: Are human occupied coastlines a bubble waiting to burst?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D.; Keeler, A.

2011-12-01

Policy discussions of adaptation by coastal residents to increasing rates of sea level rise and changing frequency of damaging storms have focused on community land use planning processes. This view neglects the role that market dynamics and climate change expectations play in the way coastal communities choose among risk mitigation options and manage land use decisions in an environment of escalating risks. We use a model coupling physical coastal processes with an agent-based model of behavior in real estate and mitigation markets to examine the interplay of climate-driven coastal hazards, collective mitigation decisions, and individual beliefs. The physical component model simulates barrier island processes that respond to both storms and slow scale dynamics associated with sea level rise. The economic component model is an agent-based model of economic behavior where agents are rational economic actors working off different assessments of future climate-driven events. Agents differentially update their beliefs based on a) how much emphasis they give to observed coastal changes and b) how much weight they give to scientific predictions. In essence, agents differ along a spectrum of how much they believe that the past is the best guide to the future and how quickly they react to new information. We use the coupled model to explore three questions of interest to coastal policy. First, how do the interplay of costal processes, beliefs, and mitigation choices affect the level and stability of real estate prices? Second, how does this interplay affect the incentives for community investments in shoreline protection? Third, how do expectations and reactions to observed events, as well as mitigation investments, affect the built environment in circumstances when climate risks reach very high levels? This last question relates to a key aspect of climate change adaptation on the coast - when does mitigation give way to abandonment as an optimal adaptation strategy? Results suggest that subjective expectations about climate risk and about the effectiveness of mitigation in high-risk environments are critical in determining when the market starts to reflect the possibility that property might no longer be inhabitable. Results will be presented that contrast the dynamics of abandonment over a range of sea level rise and storminess scenarios.

Evaluation of low impact development approach for mitigating flood inundation at a watershed scale in China.

PubMed

Hu, Maochuan; Sayama, Takahiro; Zhang, Xingqi; Tanaka, Kenji; Takara, Kaoru; Yang, Hong

2017-05-15

Low impact development (LID) has attracted growing attention as an important approach for urban flood mitigation. Most studies evaluating LID performance for mitigating floods focus on the changes of peak flow and runoff volume. This paper assessed the performance of LID practices for mitigating flood inundation hazards as retrofitting technologies in an urbanized watershed in Nanjing, China. The findings indicate that LID practices are effective for flood inundation mitigation at the watershed scale, and especially for reducing inundated areas with a high flood hazard risk. Various scenarios of LID implementation levels can reduce total inundated areas by 2%-17% and areas with a high flood hazard level by 6%-80%. Permeable pavement shows better performance than rainwater harvesting against mitigating urban waterlogging. The most efficient scenario is combined rainwater harvesting on rooftops with a cistern capacity of 78.5 mm and permeable pavement installed on 75% of non-busy roads and other impervious surfaces. Inundation modeling is an effective approach to obtaining the information necessary to guide decision-making for designing LID practices at watershed scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Follow-Up Study of the Effects of a Supplemental Early Reading Intervention on the Reading/Disability Risk of Urban Primary Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cartledge, Gwendolyn; Yurick, Amanda; Singh, Angella Harjani; Keyes, Starr E.; Kourea, Lefki

2011-01-01

Early intervention to mitigate special education and reading risk is especially critical for low socioeconomic and minority learners. This study examined the lasting effects of an early reading intervention package of phonemic awareness on the reading skills of 38 second-grade students one and two years after intervention ended. The participants…

Exploring methods to minimize the risk of mosquitoes in rainwater harvesting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moglia, Magnus; Gan, Kein; Delbridge, Nathan

2016-12-01

Rainwater harvesting in residential homes is emerging as an important complement to centralized water supplies in urban centres around the world. Domestic rainwater harvesting systems provide a variety of benefits for water management and contribute to sustainable and integrated urban water management. There are however risks associated with rainwater harvesting that requires appropriate mitigation. One such risk is that systems can become breeding grounds for mosquitoes. This can constitute a significant health risk through the spread of mosquito-borne diseases (i.e. arbovirus and malaria). This paper explores the extent to which mosquitoes breed in rainwater harvesting systems as well as the effectiveness of different risk mitigation actions. Data were sourced from a large-scale domestic rainwater tank inspection survey undertaken in Melbourne and were analysed using simple Bayesian Network models. The observed rate of mosquito breeding was too high and was identified as a serious concern for health officials and water managers. The most common access routes into the tank system were found to be through the tank inlet or overflow. By exploring different system set-ups it was found that in order to mitigate the risk of mosquito breeding in tanks, all potential access routes must be adequately sealed. The complete eradication of mosquitos in rainwater tanks, however, may need further investigation, as 4% of systems with adequate protection at the inlet and overflow were still found to have mosquitoes in them.

Afghan National Police Training Program: Lessons Learned During the Transition of Contract Administration

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-15

coordinated transition requirements; • identifying and completing inherently governmental tasks; • conducting risk assessments and developing risk ...conducted risk assessments and developed risk mitigation strategies, defined metrics, and established a council of senior officials to oversee and... assessment to identify sources of risk that may affect the transition, and mitigation strategies to address those risks , which could help minimize the

Modeling for Integrated Science Management and Resilient Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelhamer, M.; Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.

2014-01-01

Many physiological, environmental, and operational risks exist for crewmembers during spaceflight. An understanding of these risks from an integrated perspective is required to provide effective and efficient mitigations during future exploration missions that typically have stringent limitations on resources available, such as mass, power, and crew time. The Human Research Program (HRP) is in the early stages of developing collaborative modeling approaches for the purposes of managing its science portfolio in an integrated manner to support cross-disciplinary risk mitigation strategies and to enable resilient human and engineered systems in the spaceflight environment. In this talk, we will share ideas being explored from fields such as network science, complexity theory, and system-of-systems modeling. Initial work on tools to support these explorations will be discussed briefly, along with ideas for future efforts.

Introduction to Software Product Line Adoption

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

plans • improvement suggestions • risks and mitigation strategies • progress reports • risks and mitigation strategies • adoption plan • funding ... model • organization chart • product line concept of operations (CONOPS) • marketing plan • product proposals • acquisition strategy • organization risk

Pedestrian injury mitigation by autonomous braking.

PubMed

Rosén, Erik; Källhammer, Jan-Erik; Eriksson, Dick; Nentwich, Matthias; Fredriksson, Rikard; Smith, Kip

2010-11-01

The objective of this study was to calculate the potential effectiveness of a pedestrian injury mitigation system that autonomously brakes the car prior to impact. The effectiveness was measured by the reduction of fatally and severely injured pedestrians. The database from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) was queried for pedestrians hit by the front of cars from 1999 to 2007. Case by case information on vehicle and pedestrian velocities and trajectories were analysed to estimate the field of view needed for a vehicle-based sensor to detect the pedestrians one second prior to the crash. The pre-impact braking system was assumed to activate the brakes one second prior to crash and to provide a braking deceleration up to the limit of the road surface conditions, but never to exceed 0.6 g. New impact speeds were then calculated for pedestrians that would have been detected by the sensor. These calculations assumed that all pedestrians who were within a given field of view but not obstructed by surrounding objects would be detected. The changes in fatality and severe injury risks were quantified using risk curves derived by logistic regression of the accident data. Summing the risks for all pedestrians, relationships between mitigation effectiveness, sensor field of view, braking initiation time, and deceleration were established. The study documents that the effectiveness at reducing fatally (severely) injured pedestrians in frontal collisions with cars reached 40% (27%) at a field of view of 40 degrees. Increasing the field of view further led to only marginal improvements in effectiveness. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protect Thy Neighbor: Investigating the Spatial Externalities of Community Wildfire Hazard Mitigation

Treesearch

David Butry; Geoffrey Donovan

2008-01-01

Climate change, increased wildland fuels, and residential development patterns in fire-prone areas all combine to make wildfire risk mitigation an important public policy issue. One approach to wildfire risk mitigation is to encourage homeowners to use fire-resistant building materials and to create defensible spaces around their homes. We develop a theoretical model...

The social benefits of private infectious disease-risk mitigation

PubMed Central

Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Levin, Simon

2015-01-01

Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities come at a cost—in lost production or consumption, for example. Whether private mitigation yields net social benefits depends on the social weight given to the costs of illness and illness avoidance, now and into the future. We show that, for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially beneficial. However, in cases where society discounts the future at either very low or very high rates relative to private individuals, or where it places a low weight on the private cost of illness, the social cost of illness under proportionate mixing (doing nothing) may be lower than the social cost of illness under preferential mixing (avoiding infectious individuals). That is, under some circumstances, society would prefer shorter, more intense epidemics without avoidance costs over longer, less intense epidemics with avoidance costs. A sobering (although not surprising) implication of this is that poorer societies should be expected to promote less private disease-risk mitigation than richer societies. PMID:26858777

The social benefits of private infectious disease-risk mitigation.

PubMed

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Levin, Simon

2015-11-01

Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities come at a cost-in lost production or consumption, for example. Whether private mitigation yields net social benefits depends on the social weight given to the costs of illness and illness avoidance, now and into the future. We show that, for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially beneficial. However, in cases where society discounts the future at either very low or very high rates relative to private individuals, or where it places a low weight on the private cost of illness, the social cost of illness under proportionate mixing (doing nothing) may be lower than the social cost of illness under preferential mixing (avoiding infectious individuals). That is, under some circumstances, society would prefer shorter, more intense epidemics without avoidance costs over longer, less intense epidemics with avoidance costs. A sobering (although not surprising) implication of this is that poorer societies should be expected to promote less private disease-risk mitigation than richer societies.

Failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree analysis of surface image guided cranial radiosurgery.

PubMed

Manger, Ryan P; Paxton, Adam B; Pawlicki, Todd; Kim, Gwe-Ya

2015-05-01

Surface image guided, Linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS) is a modern approach for delivering radiosurgery that utilizes optical stereoscopic imaging to monitor the surface of the patient during treatment in lieu of using a head frame for patient immobilization. Considering the novelty of the SIG-RS approach and the severity of errors associated with delivery of large doses per fraction, a risk assessment should be conducted to identify potential hazards, determine their causes, and formulate mitigation strategies. The purpose of this work is to investigate SIG-RS using the combined application of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA), report on the effort required to complete the analysis, and evaluate the use of FTA in conjunction with FMEA. A multidisciplinary team was assembled to conduct the FMEA on the SIG-RS process. A process map detailing the steps of the SIG-RS was created to guide the FMEA. Failure modes were determined for each step in the SIG-RS process, and risk priority numbers (RPNs) were estimated for each failure mode to facilitate risk stratification. The failure modes were ranked by RPN, and FTA was used to determine the root factors contributing to the riskiest failure modes. Using the FTA, mitigation strategies were formulated to address the root factors and reduce the risk of the process. The RPNs were re-estimated based on the mitigation strategies to determine the margin of risk reduction. The FMEA and FTAs for the top two failure modes required an effort of 36 person-hours (30 person-hours for the FMEA and 6 person-hours for two FTAs). The SIG-RS process consisted of 13 major subprocesses and 91 steps, which amounted to 167 failure modes. Of the 91 steps, 16 were directly related to surface imaging. Twenty-five failure modes resulted in a RPN of 100 or greater. Only one of these top 25 failure modes was specific to surface imaging. The riskiest surface imaging failure mode had an overall RPN-rank of eighth. Mitigation strategies for the top failure mode decreased the RPN from 288 to 72. Based on the FMEA performed in this work, the use of surface imaging for monitoring intrafraction position in Linac-based stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) did not greatly increase the risk of the Linac-based SRS process. In some cases, SIG helped to reduce the risk of Linac-based RS. The FMEA was augmented by the use of FTA since it divided the failure modes into their fundamental components, which simplified the task of developing mitigation strategies.

Lunar Dust: Characterization and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyatt. Mark J.; Feighery, John

2007-01-01

Lunar dust is a ubiquitous phenomenon which must be explicitly addressed during upcoming human lunar exploration missions. Near term plans to revisit the moon as a stepping stone for further exploration of Mars, and beyond, places a primary emphasis on characterization and mitigation of lunar dust. Comprised of regolith particles ranging in size from tens of nanometers to microns, lunar dust is a manifestation of the complex interaction of the lunar soil with multiple mechanical, electrical, and gravitational effects. The environmental and anthropogenic factors effecting the perturbation, transport, and deposition of lunar dust must be studied in order to mitigate it's potentially harmful effects on exploration systems. The same hold true for assessing the risk it may pose for toxicological health problems if inhaled. This paper presents the current perspective and implementation of dust knowledge management and integration, and mitigation technology development activities within NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program. This work is presented within the context of the Constellation Program's Integrated Lunar Dust Management Strategy. This work further outlines the scientific basis for lunar dust behavior, it's characteristics and potential effects, and surveys several potential strategies for its control and mitigation both for lunar surface operations and within the working volumes of a lunar outpost. The paper also presents a perspective on lessons learned from Apollo and forensics engineering studies of Apollo hardware.

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

DOE PAGES

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; ...

2015-10-28

In this study, we estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major cropsmore » are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).« less

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari

In this study, we estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major cropsmore » are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).« less

Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes - A pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2016-01-01

Determining the degree of risk that wildfires pose to homes, where across the landscape the risk originates, and who can best mitigate risk are integral elements of effective co-management of wildfire risk. Developing assessments and tools to help provide this information is a high priority for federal land management agencies such as the US Forest Service (...

Small Airframe Manufacturer's Icing Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoppins, Jim

2009-01-01

This viewgraph presentation describes the icing effects, risk mitigation practices, and icing certifications for various Cessna small aircraft models. NASA's role in the development of simulation tools for icing certifications is also discussed.

Occupational Space Medicine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tarver, William J.

2012-01-01

Learning Objectives are: (1) Understand the unique work environment of astronauts. (2) Understand the effect microgravity has on human physiology (3) Understand how NASA Space Medicine Division is mitigating the health risks of space missions.

Modeling effectiveness of gradual increases in source level to mitigate effects of sonar on marine mammals.

PubMed

Von Benda-Beckmann, Alexander M; Wensveen, Paul J; Kvadsheim, Petter H; Lam, Frans-Peter A; Miller, Patrick J O; Tyack, Peter L; Ainslie, Michael A

2014-02-01

Ramp-up or soft-start procedures (i.e., gradual increase in the source level) are used to mitigate the effect of sonar sound on marine mammals, although no one to date has tested whether ramp-up procedures are effective at reducing the effect of sound on marine mammals. We investigated the effectiveness of ramp-up procedures in reducing the area within which changes in hearing thresholds can occur. We modeled the level of sound killer whales (Orcinus orca) were exposed to from a generic sonar operation preceded by different ramp-up schemes. In our model, ramp-up procedures reduced the risk of killer whales receiving sounds of sufficient intensity to affect their hearing. The effectiveness of the ramp-up procedure depended strongly on the assumed response threshold and differed with ramp-up duration, although extending the duration of the ramp up beyond 5 min did not add much to its predicted mitigating effect. The main factors that limited effectiveness of ramp up in a typical antisubmarine warfare scenario were high source level, rapid moving sonar source, and long silences between consecutive sonar transmissions. Our exposure modeling approach can be used to evaluate and optimize mitigation procedures. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

77 FR 39699 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-05

... Budget (OMB). Before submitting the ICR, titled: ``Soil Fumigant Risk Mitigation'' and identified by EPA..., soil fumigant registrants, state and tribal lead agencies, and EPA. Title: Soil Fumigant Risk... ensure that risk mitigation measures necessary for reregistration eligibility for certain soil fumigant...

Pain management and opioid risk mitigation in the military.

PubMed

Sharpe Potter, Jennifer; Bebarta, Vikhyat S; Marino, Elise N; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Turner, Barbara J

2014-05-01

Opioid analgesics misuse is a significant military health concern recognized as a priority issue by military leadership. Opioids are among those most commonly prescribed medications in the military for pain management. The military has implemented opioid risk mitigation strategies, including the Sole Provider Program and the Controlled Drug Management Analysis and Reporting Tool, which are used to identify and monitor for risk and misuse. However, there are substantial opportunities to build on these existing systems to better ensure safer opioid prescribing and monitor for misuse. Opioid risk mitigation strategies implemented by the civilian sector include establishing clinical guidelines for opioid prescribing and prescription monitoring programs. These strategies may help to inform opioid risk mitigation in the military health system. Reducing the risk of opioid misuse and improving quality of care for our Warfighters is necessary. This must be done through evidence-based approaches with an investment in research to improve patient care and prevent opioid misuse as well as its sequelae. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Economic Incentives in the Socially Optimal Management of Infectious Disease: When [Formula: see text] is Not Enough.

PubMed

Morin, B R; Kinzig, A P; Levin, S A; Perrings, C A

2017-09-29

Does society benefit from encouraging or discouraging private infectious disease-risk mitigation? Private individuals routinely mitigate infectious disease risks through the adoption of a range of precautions, from vaccination to changes in their contact with others. Such precautions have epidemiological consequences. Private disease-risk mitigation generally reduces both peak prevalence of symptomatic infection and the number of people who fall ill. At the same time, however, it can prolong an epidemic. A reduction in prevalence is socially beneficial. Prolongation of an epidemic is not. We find that for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially suboptimal-either too low or too high. The social optimum requires either more or less private mitigation. Since private mitigation effort depends on the cost of mitigation and the cost of illness, interventions that change either of these costs may be used to alter mitigation decisions. We model the potential for instruments that affect the cost of illness to yield net social benefits. We find that where a disease is not very infectious or the duration of illness is short, it may be socially optimal to promote private mitigation effort by increasing the cost of illness. By contrast, where a disease is highly infectious or long lasting, it may be optimal to discourage private mitigation by reducing the cost of disease. Society would prefer a shorter, more intense, epidemic to a longer, less intense epidemic. There is, however, a region in parameter space where the relationship is more complicated. For moderately infectious diseases with medium infectious periods, the social optimum depends on interactions between prevalence and duration. Basic reproduction numbers are not sufficient to predict the social optimum.

2012 AAPS National Biotech Conference Open Forum: a perspective on the current state of immunogenicity prediction and risk management.

PubMed

Rajadhyaksha, Manoj; Subramanyam, Meena; Rup, Bonnie

2013-10-01

The immunogenicity profile of a biotherapeutic is determined by multiple product-, process- or manufacturing-, patient- and treatment-related factors and the bioanalytical methodology used to monitor for immunogenicity. This creates a complex situation that limits direct correlation of individual factors to observed immunogenicity rates. Therefore, mechanistic understanding of how these factors individually or in concert could influence the overall incidence and clinical risk of immunogenicity is crucial to provide the best benefit/risk profile for a given biotherapeutic in a given indication and to inform risk mitigation strategies. Advances in the field of immunogenicity have included development of best practices for monitoring anti-drug antibody development, categorization of risk factors contributing to immunogenicity, development of predictive tools, and development of effective strategies for risk management and mitigation. Thus, the opportunity to ask "where we are now and where we would like to go from here?" was the main driver for organizing an Open Forum on Improving Immunogenicity Risk Prediction and Management, conducted at the 2012 American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists' (AAPS) National Biotechnology Conference in San Diego. The main objectives of the Forum include the following: to understand the nature of immunogenicity risk factors, to identify analytical tools used and animal models and management strategies needed to improve their predictive value, and finally to identify collaboration opportunities to improve the reliability of risk prediction, mitigation, and management. This meeting report provides the Forum participant's and author's perspectives on the barriers to advancing this field and recommendations for overcoming these barriers through collaborative efforts.

Adolescent Cellphone Use While Driving: An Overview of the Literature and Promising Future Directions for Prevention.

PubMed

Delgado, M Kit; Wanner, Kathryn J; McDonald, Catherine

2016-06-16

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death in adolescents, and drivers aged 16-19 are the most likely to die in distracted driving crashes. This paper provides an overview of the literature on adolescent cellphone use while driving, focusing on the crash risk, incidence, risk factors for engagement, and the effectiveness of current mitigation strategies. We conclude by discussing promising future approaches to prevent crashes related to cellphone use in adolescents. Handheld manipulation of the phone while driving has been shown to have a 3 to 4-fold increased risk of a near crash or crash, and eye glance duration greater than 2 seconds increases crash risk exponentially. Nearly half of U.S. high school students admit to texting while driving in the last month, but the frequency of use according to vehicle speed and high-risk situations remains unknown. Several risk factors are associated with cell phone use while driving including: parental cellphone use while driving, social norms for quick responses to text messages, and higher levels of temporal discounting. Given the limited effectiveness of current mitigation strategies such as educational campaigns and legal bans, a multi-pronged behavioral and technological approach addressing the above risk factors will be necessary to reduce this dangerous behavior in adolescents.

Adolescent Cellphone Use While Driving: An Overview of the Literature and Promising Future Directions for Prevention

PubMed Central

Delgado, M. Kit; Wanner, Kathryn J.; McDonald, Catherine

2016-01-01

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death in adolescents, and drivers aged 16–19 are the most likely to die in distracted driving crashes. This paper provides an overview of the literature on adolescent cellphone use while driving, focusing on the crash risk, incidence, risk factors for engagement, and the effectiveness of current mitigation strategies. We conclude by discussing promising future approaches to prevent crashes related to cellphone use in adolescents. Handheld manipulation of the phone while driving has been shown to have a 3 to 4-fold increased risk of a near crash or crash, and eye glance duration greater than 2 seconds increases crash risk exponentially. Nearly half of U.S. high school students admit to texting while driving in the last month, but the frequency of use according to vehicle speed and high-risk situations remains unknown. Several risk factors are associated with cell phone use while driving including: parental cellphone use while driving, social norms for quick responses to text messages, and higher levels of temporal discounting. Given the limited effectiveness of current mitigation strategies such as educational campaigns and legal bans, a multi-pronged behavioral and technological approach addressing the above risk factors will be necessary to reduce this dangerous behavior in adolescents. PMID:27695663

Mapping the spatio-temporal risk of lead exposure in apex species for more effective mitigation

PubMed Central

Mateo-Tomás, Patricia; Olea, Pedro P.; Jiménez-Moreno, María; Camarero, Pablo R.; Sánchez-Barbudo, Inés S.; Rodríguez Martín-Doimeadios, Rosa C.; Mateo, Rafael

2016-01-01

Effective mitigation of the risks posed by environmental contaminants for ecosystem integrity and human health requires knowing their sources and spatio-temporal distribution. We analysed the exposure to lead (Pb) in griffon vulture Gyps fulvus—an apex species valuable as biomonitoring sentinel. We determined vultures' lead exposure and its main sources by combining isotope signatures and modelling analyses of 691 bird blood samples collected over 5 years. We made yearlong spatially explicit predictions of the species risk of lead exposure. Our results highlight elevated lead exposure of griffon vultures (i.e. 44.9% of the studied population, approximately 15% of the European, showed lead blood levels more than 200 ng ml−1) partly owing to environmental lead (e.g. geological sources). These exposures to environmental lead of geological sources increased in those vultures exposed to point sources (e.g. lead-based ammunition). These spatial models and pollutant risk maps are powerful tools that identify areas of wildlife exposure to potentially harmful sources of lead that could affect ecosystem and human health. PMID:27466455

Where buffalo and cattle meet: Modelling interspecific contact risk using cumulative resistant kernels

Treesearch

Zaneta Kaszta; Samuel A. Cushman; Claudio Sillero-Zubiri; Eleonore Wolff; Jorgelina Marino

2018-01-01

African buffalo the primary source of foot and mouth disease (FMD) infection for livestock in South Africa. Predicting the spatial drivers and patterns of buffalo–cattle contact risk is crucial for developing effective FMD mitigation strategies. Therefore, the goal of this study was to predict fine-scale, seasonal contact risk between cattle and buffaloes straying into...

Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

2018-02-08

Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

73 6.10. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 1 Mitigation of...6.11. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 3 Mitigation of the Upgrade Alternative...courses of action, or risk- mitigation behaviors, which take place in the event that the technology is not developed by the mile- stone date (e.g

78 FR 57467 - Importation of Mangoes From Australia Into the Continental United States

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-19

... only and would have to be treated by irradiation to mitigate the risk of the mango seed weevil and... and to be treated by irradiation to mitigate the risk of the mango seed weevil and fruit flies. We... irradiation treatment to mitigate C. rubens. We proposed to require mangoes to be treated by irradiation for...

A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

2018-01-01

In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

2012-01-01

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

The Role of Science in Advising the Decision Making Process: A Pathway for Building Effective Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Mexico at the Local Level.

PubMed

Barraza, Roberto; Velazquez-Angulo, Gilberto; Flores-Tavizón, Edith; Romero-González, Jaime; Huertas-Cardozo, José Ignacio

2016-04-27

This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico.

Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

2016-06-01

A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325.

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2006-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.; Ponomarev, A.; Ren, L.; Shavers, M. R.; Wu, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

PubMed

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

2015-03-01

This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mitigation effectiveness for improving nesting success of greater sage-grouse influenced by energy development.

PubMed

Kirol, Christopher P; Sutphin, Andrew L; Bond, Laura; Fuller, Mark R; Maechtle, Thomas L

Sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) habitats being developed for oil and gas reserves are inhabited by sagebrush obligate species-including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) that is currently being considered for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Numerous studies suggest increasing oil and gas development may exacerbate species extinction risks. Therefore, there is a great need for effective on-site mitigation to reduce impacts to co-occurring wildlife such as sage-grouse. Nesting success is a primary factor in avian productivity and declines in nesting success are also thought to be an important contributor to population declines in sage-grouse. From 2008 to 2011 we monitored 296 nests of radio-marked female sage-grouse in a natural gas (NG) field in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA and compared nest survival in mitigated and non-mitigated development areas and relatively unaltered areas to determine if specific mitigation practices were enhancing nest survival. Nest survival was highest in relatively unaltered habitats followed by mitigated, and then non-mitigated NG areas. Reservoirs used for holding NG discharge water had the greatest support as having a direct relationship to nest survival. Within a 5 km 2 area surrounding a nest, the probability of nest failure increased by about 15% for every 1.5 km increase in reservoir water edge. Reducing reservoirs was a mitigation focus and sage-grouse nesting in mitigated areas were exposed to almost half of the amount of water edge compared to those in non-mitigated areas. Further, we found that an increase in sagebrush cover was positively related to nest survival. Consequently, mitigation efforts focused on reducing reservoir construction and reducing surface disturbance, especially when the surface disturbance results in sagebrush removal, are important to enhancing sage-grouse nesting success.

Mitigation effectiveness for improving nesting success of greater sage-grouse influenced by energy development

PubMed Central

Kirol, Christopher P.; Sutphin, Andrew L.; Bond, Laura; Fuller, Mark R.; Maechtle, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats being developed for oil and gas reserves are inhabited by sagebrush obligate species—including the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) that is currently being considered for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Numerous studies suggest increasing oil and gas development may exacerbate species extinction risks. Therefore, there is a great need for effective on-site mitigation to reduce impacts to co-occurring wildlife such as sage-grouse. Nesting success is a primary factor in avian productivity and declines in nesting success are also thought to be an important contributor to population declines in sage-grouse. From 2008 to 2011 we monitored 296 nests of radio-marked female sage-grouse in a natural gas (NG) field in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA and compared nest survival in mitigated and non-mitigated development areas and relatively unaltered areas to determine if specific mitigation practices were enhancing nest survival. Nest survival was highest in relatively unaltered habitats followed by mitigated, and then non-mitigated NG areas. Reservoirs used for holding NG discharge water had the greatest support as having a direct relationship to nest survival. Within a 5 km2 area surrounding a nest, the probability of nest failure increased by about 15% for every 1.5 km increase in reservoir water edge. Reducing reservoirs was a mitigation focus and sage-grouse nesting in mitigated areas were exposed to almost half of the amount of water edge compared to those in non-mitigated areas. Further, we found that an increase in sagebrush cover was positively related to nest survival. Consequently, mitigation efforts focused on reducing reservoir construction and reducing surface disturbance, especially when the surface disturbance results in sagebrush removal, are important to enhancing sage-grouse nesting success. PMID:26366042

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and resultant loss of income produces widespread default on payments. With increased computational power and more complete inventories of exposure, Monte Carlo methods may provide more accurate estimation of severe losses and the opportunity to increase resilience of vulnerable systems and communities.

Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, David P.

2004-01-01

A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

Radiation protection and mitigation by natural antioxidants and flavonoids; implications to radiotherapy and radiation disasters.

PubMed

Yahyapour, Rasoul; Shabeeb, Dheyauldeen; Cheki, Mohsen; Musa, Ahmed Eleojo; Farhood, Bagher; Rezaeyan, Abolhasan; Amini, Peyman; Fallah, Hengameh; Najafi, Masoud

2018-06-19

Nowadays, ionizing radiations are used for various medical and terroristic aims. These purposes involve exposure to ionizing radiations. Hence, people are at risk for acute or late effects. Annually, millions of cancer patients undergo radiotherapy during their course of treatment. Also, some radiological or nuclear events in recent years pose a threat to people, hence the need for radiation mitigation strategies. Amifostine, the first FDA approved radioprotector, has shown some toxicities that limit its usage and efficiency. Due to these side effects, scientists have researched for other agents with less toxicity for better radioprotection and possible mitigation of the lethal effects of ionizing radiations after an accidental exposure. Flavonoids have shown promising results for radioprotection and can be administered in higher doses with less toxicity. Studies for mitigation of ionizing radiation-induced toxicities has concentrated on natural antioxidants. Detoxification of free radicals, management of inflammatory responses and attenuation of apoptosis signaling pathways in radiosensitive organs are the main mechanisms for radiation protection and mitigation with flavonoids and natural antioxidants. However, several studies have proposed that a combination in the form of some antioxidants may alleviate radiation toxicities more effectively in comparison to a single form of antioxidants. In this review, we focus on recent findings about natural radioprotectors and mitigators which are clinically applicable for radiotherapy patients, as well as injured people in possible radiation accidents. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Coming to terms with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug gastropathy.

PubMed

Roth, Sanford H

2012-05-07

Despite well known complications, oral nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) remain the most commonly prescribed medications in the US for musculoskeletal disorders such as osteoarthritis. Although there has been a recent focus on the cardiovascular and renal complications associated with these agents, NSAID gastropathy continues to be a particular concern in many patients, especially those at increased risk for serious adverse events, including the elderly. Complicating the diagnosis of NSAID gastropathy is its silent course, which, up to half of the time, is asymptomatic. Several strategies are currently employed by physicians to mitigate the risk of serious gastrointestinal events. These include either addition of a proton pump inhibitor to current nonselective NSAID therapy or the use of a cyclo-oxygenase-2-selective NSAID. Although these agents are effective at mitigating the overall risk of gastrointestinal adverse events, they fail to address NSAID-related cardiovascular and renal risks. Due to their reduced systemic absorption, topical NSAIDs may present a viable option for patients at increased risk for serious NSAID-related adverse events, including gastropathy.

A Deterministic Model to Quantify Risk and Guide Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Bluetongue Virus Transmission in California Dairy Cattle

PubMed Central

Mayo, Christie; Shelley, Courtney; MacLachlan, N. James; Gardner, Ian; Hartley, David; Barker, Christopher

2016-01-01

The global distribution of bluetongue virus (BTV) has been changing recently, perhaps as a result of climate change. To evaluate the risk of BTV infection and transmission in a BTV-endemic region of California, sentinel dairy cows were evaluated for BTV infection, and populations of Culicoides vectors were collected at different sites using carbon dioxide. A deterministic model was developed to quantify risk and guide future mitigation strategies to reduce BTV infection in California dairy cattle. The greatest risk of BTV transmission was predicted within the warm Central Valley of California that contains the highest density of dairy cattle in the United States. Temperature and parameters associated with Culicoides vectors (transmission probabilities, carrying capacity, and survivorship) had the greatest effect on BTV’s basic reproduction number, R0. Based on these analyses, optimal control strategies for reducing BTV infection risk in dairy cattle will be highly reliant upon early efforts to reduce vector abundance during the months prior to peak transmission. PMID:27812161

Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

2016-01-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

How Green is 'Green' Energy?

PubMed

Gibson, Luke; Wilman, Elspeth N; Laurance, William F

2017-12-01

Renewable energy is an important piece of the puzzle in meeting growing energy demands and mitigating climate change, but the potentially adverse effects of such technologies are often overlooked. Given that climate and ecology are inextricably linked, assessing the effects of energy technologies requires one to consider their full suite of global environmental concerns. We review here the ecological impacts of three major types of renewable energy - hydro, solar, and wind energy - and highlight some strategies for mitigating their negative effects. All three types can have significant environmental consequences in certain contexts. Wind power has the fewest and most easily mitigated impacts; solar energy is comparably benign if designed and managed carefully. Hydropower clearly has the greatest risks, particularly in certain ecological and geographical settings. More research is needed to assess the environmental impacts of these 'green' energy technologies, given that all are rapidly expanding globally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Implementation of Biomathematical Models Mitigate Fatigue and Fatigue-related Risks in Emergency Medical Services Operations? A Systematic Review.

PubMed

James, Francine O; Waggoner, Lauren B; Weiss, Patricia M; Patterson, P Daniel; Higgins, J Stephen; Lang, Eddy S; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2018-02-15

Work schedules like those of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel have been associated with increased risk of fatigue-related impairment. Biomathematical modeling is a means of objectively estimating the potential impacts of fatigue on performance, which may be used in the mitigation of fatigue-related safety risks. In the context of EMS operations, our objective was to assess the evidence in the literature regarding the effectiveness of using biomathematical models to help mitigate fatigue and fatigue-related risks. A systematic review of the evidence evaluating the use of biomathematical models to manage fatigue in EMS personnel or similar shift workers was performed. Procedures proposed by the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology were used to summarize and rate the certainty in the evidence. Potential bias attached to retained studies was documented using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk of Bias tool for experimental studies. The literature search strategy, which focused on both EMS personnel and non-EMS shift workers, yielded n = 2,777 unique records. One paper, which investigated non-EMS shift workers, met inclusion criteria. As part of a larger effort, managers and dispatchers of a trucking operation were provided with monthly biomathematical model analyses of predicted fatigue in the driver workforce, and educated on how they could reduce predicted fatigue by means of schedule adjustments. The intervention showed a significant reduction in the number and cost of vehicular accidents during the period in which biomathematical modeling was used. The overall GRADE assessment of evidence quality was very low due to risk of bias, indirectness, imprecision, and publication bias. This systematic review identified no studies that investigated the impact of biomathematical models in EMS operations. Findings from one study of non-EMS shift workers were favorable toward use of biomathematical models as a fatigue mitigation scheduling aid, albeit with very low quality of evidence pertaining to EMS operations. We propose three focus areas of research priorities that, if addressed, could help better elucidate the utility and impact of biomathematical models as a fatigue-mitigation tool in the EMS environment.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

75 FR 63732 - Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations, Designated Contract Markets, and Swap...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-18

... governance of certain DCOs, DCMs, or SEFs or to mitigate systemic risk, promote competition, or mitigate... the clearinghouses to reduce systemic risk, we have the banks now owning the clearinghouses. The... subject to [the CEA] and the avoidance of systemic risk.'' \\20\\ Clearing members contribute substantial...

NASA's Risk Management System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2013-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Probing Aircraft Flight Test Hazard Mitigation for the Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails and Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Research Team . Volume 2; Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails and Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Project Integration Manager requested in July 2012 that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) form a team to independently assess aircraft structural failure hazards associated with the ACCESS experiment and to identify potential flight test hazard mitigations to ensure flight safety. The ACCESS Project Integration Manager subsequently requested that the assessment scope be focused predominantly on structural failure risks to the aircraft empennage (horizontal and vertical tail). This report contains the Appendices to Volume I.

Optimizing Processes to Minimize Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loyd, David

2017-01-01

NASA, like the other hazardous industries, has suffered very catastrophic losses. Human error will likely never be completely eliminated as a factor in our failures. When you can't eliminate risk, focus on mitigating the worst consequences and recovering operations. Bolstering processes to emphasize the role of integration and problem solving is key to success. Building an effective Safety Culture bolsters skill-based performance that minimizes risk and encourages successful engagement.

Effectiveness of fuel treatments for mitigating wildfire risk and sequestering forest carbon: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Treesearch

Louise Loudermilk; Alison Stanton; Robert M. Scheller; Thomas E. Dilts; Peter J. Weisberg; Carl Skinner; Jian Yang

2014-01-01

Fuel-reduction treatments are used extensively to reduce wildfire risk and restore forest diversity and function. In the near future, increasing regulation of carbon (C) emissions may force forest managers to balance the use of fuel treatments for reducing wildfire risk against an alternative goal of C sequestration. The objective of this study was to evaluate how long...

Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of...

Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric Toman

2017-01-01

Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2016-04-01

The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Albrich, Katharina; Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner

2018-03-01

In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Albrich, Katharina; Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner

2018-01-01

In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. PMID:29275284

Mission design considerations for nuclear risk mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stancati, Mike; Collins, John

1993-01-01

Strategies for the mitigation of the nuclear risk associated with two specific mission operations are discussed. These operations are the safe return of nuclear thermal propulsion reactors to earth orbit and the disposal of lunar/Mars spacecraft reactors.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy demand under all RCPs. Because of the slow response time of sea level to change in emissions, the coastal risk reduction in the current century from mitigation is least clear. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Making the decision to mitigate risk

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Holly Wise Bender; Carol Raish

2007-01-01

Why individuals choose to mitigate, downplay, or ignore risk has been a topic of much research over the past 25 years for natural- and human-created risks, such as earthquakes, flooding, smoking, contraceptive use, and alcohol consumption. Wildfire has been a relatively recent focus in the natural hazard literature, perhaps a result of several years of catastrophic...

Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.

Integrated NTP Vehicle Radiation Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caffrey, Jarvis A.; Rodriquez, Mitchell A.

2018-01-01

The development of a nuclear thermal propulsion stage requires consideration for radiation emitted from the nuclear reactor core. Applying shielding mass is an effective mitigating solution, but a better alternative is to incorporate some mitigation strategies into the propulsion stage and crew habitat. In this way, the required additional mass is minimized and the mass that must be applied may in some cases be able to serve multiple purposes. Strategies for crew compartment shielding are discussed that reduce dose from both engine and cosmic sources, and in some cases may also serve to reduce life support risks by permitting abundant water reserves. Early consideration for integrated mitigation solutions in a crewed nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) vehicle will enable reduced radiation burden from both cosmic and nuclear sources, improved thrust-to-weight ratio or payload capacity by reducing 'dead mass' of shielding, and generally support a more robust risk posture for a NTP-powered Mars mission by permitting shorter trip times and increased water reserves.

Integrated NTP Vehicle Radiation Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caffrey, Jarvis; Rodriquez, Mitchell

2018-01-01

The development of a nuclear thermal propulsion stage requires consideration for radiation emitted from the nuclear reactor core. Applying shielding mass is an effective mitigating solution, but a better alternative is to incorporate some mitigation strategies into the propulsion stage and crew habitat. In this way, the required additional mass is minimized and the mass that must be applied may in some cases be able to serve multiple purposes. Strategies for crew compartment shielding are discussed that reduce dose from both engine and cosmic sources, and in some cases may also serve to reduce life support risks by permitting abundant water reserves. Early consideration for integrated mitigation solutions in a crewed nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) vehicle will enable reduced radiation burden from both cosmic and nuclear sources, improved thrust-to-weight ratio or payload capacity by reducing 'dead mass' of shielding, and generally support a more robust risk posture for a NTP-powered Mars mission by permitting shorter trip times and increased water reserves

Defense Science And Technology: Further DOD And DOE Actions Needed to Provide Timely Conference Decisions and Analyze Risks from Changes in Participation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

Conference Planning and Food and Beverage Costs, Audit Report 11-43 (October 2011). 5White House, Executive Order 13589, Promoting Efficient Spending, 76...and conducted a content analysis of these interviews. Based on this analysis, we enumerated challenges and mitigation strategies as well as benefits...of officials, asking respondents to rate the effect of each potential mitigation strategy and prioritize steps for implementing the strategies . We

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; Nordkvelle, Jonas; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Gilmore, Elisabeth

2016-05-01

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. This study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of key socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960-2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014-2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.

The Role of Science in Advising the Decision Making Process: A Pathway for Building Effective Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Mexico at the Local Level

PubMed Central

Barraza, Roberto; Velazquez-Angulo, Gilberto; Flores-Tavizón, Edith; Romero-González, Jaime; Huertas-Cardozo, José Ignacio

2016-01-01

This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico. PMID:27128933

A correlation of long term effects and radiation quality in the progeny of bystander cells after microbeam radiations: The experimental study of radiotherapy for cancer risk mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Autsavapromporn, N.; Konishi, T.; Liu, C.; Plante, I.; Funayama, T.; Usami, N.; Azzam, EI; Suzuki, M.

2017-06-01

The goal of this study is to investigate the role of radiation quality and gap junction intercellular communication (GJIC) in the propagation of delayed stressful effects in the progeny of bystander human skin fibroblasts cultures (NB1RGB). Briefly, confluent NB1RGB cells in the presence and absence of gap junction inhibitor (AGA) were exposed to ionizing radiation (IR) with a different linear energy transfer (LET) either 5.35 keV X rays (LET ∼6 keV/μm) or 18.3 MeV/u carbon (LET ∼103 keV/μm) microbeam radiations. Following 20 populations post-irradiation, the progeny of bystander NB1RGB cells were harvested and assayed for several of biological endpoints. Our results showed that expression of stressful effects in the progeny of bystander cells is dependent on LET. The progeny of bystander cells exposed to low-LET X rays showed the persistence of oxidative stress and it was correlated with the increased mutant fraction. Such effect were not observed after high-LET carbon ions. Interestingly, inhibition of GJIC mitigated the toxic effects in the progeny of bystander cells. Together, the results contribute to the understanding of the fundamental radiation biology relating to the high-LET carbon ions to mitigate cancer risk after radiotherapy. Furthermore, GJIC be considered as a critical mediator in the bystander mutagenic effect.

Improving Our Odds: Success through Continuous Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

2009-01-01

Launching a rocket, running a business, driving to work and even day-to-day living all involve some degree of risk. Risk is ever present yet not always recognized, adequately assessed and appropriately mitigated. Identification, assessment and mitigation of risk are elements of the risk management component of the "continuous improvement" way of life that has become a hallmark of successful and progressive enterprises. While the application of risk management techniques to provide continuous improvement may be detailed and extensive, the philosophy, ideals and tools can be beneficially applied to all situations. Experiences with the use of risk identification, assessment and mitigation techniques for complex systems and processes are described. System safety efforts and tools used to examine potential risks of the Ares I First Stage of NASA s new Constellation Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) presently being designed are noted as examples. Recommendations from lessons learned are provided for the application of risk management during the development of new systems as well as for the improvement of existing systems. Lessons learned and suggestions given are also examined for applicability to simple systems, uncomplicated processes and routine personal daily tasks. This paper informs the reader of varied uses of risk management efforts and techniques to identify, assess and mitigate risk for improvement of products, success of business, protection of people and enhancement of personal life.

Technical Assessment: Synthetic Biology

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

to help heal wounds; probiotics that mitigate the effects of stress and enhance mental performance. The same characteristics that make synthetic... probiotics . 5. BW/CW Defense Despite claims about the risks from synthetic biology often inappropriately drowning out discussions of other

I'm feeling lucky: the relationship between affect and risk-seeking in the framing effect.

PubMed

Cheung, Elaine; Mikels, Joseph A

2011-08-01

Engagement in risky behavior has traditionally been attributed to an underestimation of the associated risks, but recent perspectives suggest that affective reactions toward a risky option may better explain risk-seeking than risk perception. However, the precise relationship between emotion and risk-seeking remains unclear. The current set of studies elucidates the relationship between emotion and risk-seeking in risky choice framing, using a gambling task. In Study 1, reliance on emotion was related to risk-seeking, but goals to regulate emotion mitigated these effects. In Study 2, positive affect was associated with risk-seeking in loss frames, but unrelated to risk aversion in gain frames. Collectively, these findings indicate a general role for emotion reliance on risk-seeking and a specific role of positive affect on risk-seeking in the loss trials of the framing effect. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Effective Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Public Health Impacts of Heatwaves for Brookline, MA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalalzadeh Fard, B.; Hassanzadeh, H.; Bhatia, U.; Ganguly, A. R.

2016-12-01

Studies on urban areas show a significant increase in frequency and intensity of heatwaves over the past decades, and predict the same trend for future. Since heatwaves have been responsible for a large number of life losses, urgent adaptation and mitigation strategies are required in the policy and decision making level for a sustainable urban planning. The Sustainability and Data Sciences Laboratory at Northeastern University, under the aegis of Thriving Earth Exchange of AGU, is working with the town of Brookline to understand the potential public health impacts of anticipated heatwaves. We consider the most important social and physical factors to obtain vulnerability and exposure parameters for each census block group of the town. Utilizing remote sensing data, we locate Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) during a recent heatwave event, as the hazard parameter. We then create priority risk map using the risk framework. Our analyses show spatial correlations between the UHIs and social factors such as poverty, and physical factors such as land cover variations. Furthermore, we investigate the future heatwave frequency and intensity increases by analyzing the climate models predictions. For future changes of UHIs, land cover changes are investigated using available predictive data. Also, socioeconomic predictions are carried out to complete the futuristic models of heatwave risks. Considering plausible scenarios for Brookline, we develop different risk maps based on the vulnerability, exposure and hazard parameters. Eventually, we suggest guidelines for Heatwave Action Plans for prioritizing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in urban planning for the town of Brookline.

Optimal security investments and extreme risk.

PubMed

Mohtadi, Hamid; Agiwal, Swati

2012-08-01

In the aftermath of 9/11, concern over security increased dramatically in both the public and the private sector. Yet, no clear algorithm exists to inform firms on the amount and the timing of security investments to mitigate the impact of catastrophic risks. The goal of this article is to devise an optimum investment strategy for firms to mitigate exposure to catastrophic risks, focusing on how much to invest and when to invest. The latter question addresses the issue of whether postponing a risk mitigating decision is an optimal strategy or not. Accordingly, we develop and estimate both a one-period model and a multiperiod model within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). We calibrate these models using probability measures for catastrophic terrorism risks associated with attacks on the food sector. We then compare our findings with the purchase of catastrophic risk insurance. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

2014-05-01

Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

Identity Theft: Trends and Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-05

mitigate the effects of identity theft, one option Congress may consider is whether to strengthen data breach notification requirements. Such requirements...identity theft complaints to the FTC as well as in the number of reported data breaches placing personally identifiable information at risk. This report...23 Effects of Data Breaches ..................................................................................................... 24

The effect of a translating research into practice intervention to promote use of evidence-based fall prevention interventions in hospitalized adults: A prospective pre-post implementation study in the U.S.

PubMed

Titler, Marita G; Conlon, Paul; Reynolds, Margaret A; Ripley, Robert; Tsodikov, Alex; Wilson, Deleise S; Montie, Mary

2016-08-01

Falls are a major public health problem internationally. Many hospitals have implemented fall risk assessment tools, but few have implemented interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risks. Little research has been done to examine the effect of implementing evidence-based fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors in hospitalized adults. To evaluate the impact of implementing, in 3 U.S. hospitals, evidence-based fall prevention interventions targeted to patient-specific fall risk factors (Targeted Risk Factor Fall Prevention Bundle). Fall rates, fall injury rates, types of fall injuries and adoption of the Targeted Risk Factor Fall Prevention Bundle were compared prior to and following implementation. A prospective pre-post implementation cohort design. Thirteen adult medical-surgical units from three community hospitals in the Midwest region of the U.S. Nurses who were employed at least 20hours/week, provided direct patient care, and licensed as an RN (n=157 pre; 140 post); and medical records of patients 21years of age or older, who received care on the study unit for more than 24hours during the designated data collection period (n=390 pre and post). A multi-faceted Translating Research Into Practice Intervention was used to implement the Targeted Risk Factor Fall Prevention Bundle composed of evidence-based fall prevention interventions designed to mitigate patient-specific fall risks. Dependent variables (fall rates, fall injury rates, fall injury type, use of Targeted Risk Factor Fall Prevention Bundle) were collected at baseline, and following completion of the 15month implementation phase. Nurse questionnaires included the Stage of Adoption Scale, and the Use of Research Findings in Practice Scale to measure adoption of evidence-based fall prevention practices. A Medical Record Abstract Form was used to abstract data about use of targeted risk-specific fall prevention interventions. Number of falls, and number and types of fall injuries were collected for each study unit for 3months pre- and post-implementation. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis. Fall rates declined 22% (p=0.09). Types of fall injuries changed from major and moderate to minor injuries. Fall injury rates did not decline. Use of fall prevention interventions improved significantly (p<0.001) for mobility, toileting, cognition, and risk reduction for injury, but did not change for those targeting medications. Using the Translating Research Into Practice intervention promoted use of many evidence-based fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors in hospitalized adults. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Mitigation Techniques for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyde, James L.; Christiansen, Eric L.; Lear, Dana M.; Kerr, Justin H.

2009-01-01

An overview of significant Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) impacts on the Payload Bay Door radiators, wing leading edge reinforced carbon-carbon panels and crew module windows will be presented, along with a discussion of the techniques NASA has implemented to reduce the risk from MMOD impacts. The concept of "Late Inspection" of the Nose Cap and Wing leading Edge (WLE) Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) regions will be introduced. An alternative mated attitude with the International Space Station (ISS) on shuttle MMOD risk will also be presented. The significant threat mitigation effect of these two techniques will be demonstrated. The wing leading edge impact detection system, on-orbit repair techniques and disabled vehicle contingency plans will also be discussed.

Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

Treesearch

M. Hurteau; M. North

2010-01-01

Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

Achieving Effective Risk Management Reduction Throughout Decommissioning at the Columbus Closure Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, K.D.

2006-07-01

Nuclear facility decontamination, dismantlement, and demolition activities provide a myriad of challenges along the path to reaching a safe, effective, and compliant decommissioning. Among the challenges faced during decommissioning, is the constant management and technical effort to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize the potential of risks of radiation exposures and other hazards to the worker, the surrounding community, and the environment. Management strategies to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize risks include incorporating strong safety and As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principles into an integrated work planning process. Technical and operational strategies may include utilizing predictive risk analysis tools to establish contaminationmore » limits for demolition and using remote handling equipment to reduce occupational and radiation exposures to workers. ECC and E2 Closure Services, LLC (Closure Services) have effectively utilized these management and technical tools to eliminate, mitigate, and reduce radiation exposures under contract to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the decontamination and decommissioning Columbus Closure Project (CCP). In particular, Closure Services achieved significant dose reduction during the dismantling, decontamination, and demolition activities for Building JN-1. Management strategies during the interior dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of the facility demanded an integrated work planning processes that involved project disciplines. Integrated planning processes identified multiple opportunities to incorporate the use of remote handling equipment during the interior dismantling and demolition activities within areas of high radiation. Technical strategies employed predictive risk analysis tools to set upper bounding contamination limits, allowed for the radiological demolition of the building without exceeding administrative dose limits to the worker, general public, and the environment. Adhering to management and technical strategies during the dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of Building JN-1 enabled Closure Services to achieve strong ALARA performance, maintain absolute compliance under the regulatory requirements and meeting licensing conditions for decommissioning. (authors)« less

Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Paoli, Rosa Grazia

2008-07-08

Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 'Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion ofmore » compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made.« less

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mitigation options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

Risky business: risk information and the moderating effect of message frame and past behaviour on women's perceptions of the Human Papillomavirus vaccine.

PubMed

Gainforth, Heather L; Latimer, Amy E

2012-09-01

The effect of response cost information, message framing and past behaviour on women's coping appraisal and motivation to be vaccinated against the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) were investigated using a 2 Frame × 2 Response Cost × 2 Pap Status design. Women (N = 286) read one of four messages about the vaccine. Women who received high-risk information perceived the vaccine as having higher response cost and were less motivated to be vaccinated compared to women who received low-risk information. The deleterious effects of risk information on specific aspects of women's coping appraisal may be mitigated by appropriately framed messages.

Accidental spills at sea--risk, impact, mitigation and the need for co-ordinated post-incident monitoring.

PubMed

Kirby, Mark F; Law, Robin J

2010-06-01

A fully integrated and effective response to an oil or chemical spill at sea must include a well planned and executed post-incident assessment of environmental contamination and damage. While salvage, rescue and clean-up operations are generally well considered, including reviews and exercises, the expertise, resources, networks and logistical planning required to achieve prompt and effective post-spill impact assessment and monitoring are not generally well established. The arrangement and co-ordination of post-incident monitoring and impact assessment need to consider sampling design, biological effects, chemical analysis and collection/interpretation of expert local knowledge. This paper discusses the risks, impacts and mitigation options associated with accidental spills and considers the importance of pre-considered impact assessment and monitoring programmes in the wider response cycle. The PREMIAM (Pollution Response in Emergencies: Marine Impact Assessment and Monitoring; www.premiam.org) project is considered as an example of an improved approach to the planning, co-ordination and conduct of post-incident monitoring.

Paying the pipers: Mitigating the impact of anticoagulant rodenticides on predators and scavengers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, John E.; Rattner, Barnett A.; Shore, Richard F.; van den Brink, Nico W.

2016-01-01

Anticoagulant rodenticides, mainly second-generation forms, or SGARs, dominate the global market for rodent control. Introduced in the 1970s to counter genetic resistance in rodent populations to first-generation compounds such as warfarin, SGARs are extremely toxic and highly effective killers. However, their tendency to persist and accumulate in the body has led to the widespread contamination of terrestrial predators and scavengers. Commercial chemicals that are classified by regulators as persistent, bio-accumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals and that are widely used with potential environmental release, such as dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) or polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), have been removed from commerce. However, despite consistently failing ecological risk assessments, SGARs remain in use because of the demand for effective rodent-control options and the lack of safe and humane alternatives. Although new risk-mitigation measures for rodenticides are now in effect in some countries, the contamination and poisoning of nontarget wildlife are expected to continue. Here, we suggest options to further attenuate this problem.

Shale gas development: a smart regulation framework.

PubMed

Konschnik, Katherine E; Boling, Mark K

2014-01-01

Advances in directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have sparked a natural gas boom from shale formations in the United States. Regulators face a rapidly changing industry comprised of hundreds of players, operating tens of thousands of wells across 30 states. They are often challenged to respond by budget cuts, a brain drain to industry, regulations designed for conventional gas developments, insufficient information, and deeply polarized debates about hydraulic fracturing and its regulation. As a result, shale gas governance remains a halting patchwork of rules, undermining opportunities to effectively characterize and mitigate development risk. The situation is dynamic, with research and incremental regulatory advances underway. Into this mix, we offer the CO/RE framework--characterization of risk, optimization of mitigation strategies, regulation, and enforcement--to design tailored governance strategies. We then apply CO/RE to three types of shale gas risks, to illustrate its potential utility to regulators.

Trying not to get burned: Understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores

2012-01-01

Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation...

Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict

PubMed Central

Miller, Jennifer R. B.; Jhala, Yadvendradev V.; Schmitz, Oswald J.

2016-01-01

Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people’s perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners’ perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict. PMID:27617831

Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict.

PubMed

Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Schmitz, Oswald J

2016-01-01

Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people's perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners' perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

An Integrated Approach for Physical and Cyber Security Risk Assessment: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Common Risk Model for Dams

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

Common Risk Model for Dams ( CRM -D) Methodology,” for the Director, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, Office of Secretary of Defense and the...for Dams ( CRM -D), developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in collaboration with the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) and the U.S...and cyber security risks across a portfolio of dams, and informing decisions on how to mitigate those risks. The CRM -D can effectively quantify the

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

PubMed

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

2017-04-01

In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would change that picture.

Analyzing costs of space debris mitigation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiedemann, C.; Krag, H.; Bendisch, J.; Sdunnus, H.

2004-01-01

The steadily increasing number of space objects poses a considerable hazard to all kinds of spacecraft. To reduce the risks to future space missions different debris mitigation measures and spacecraft protection techniques have been investigated during the last years. However, the economic efficiency has not been considered yet in this context. Current studies have the objective to evaluate the mission costs due to space debris in a business as usual (no mitigation) scenario compared to the missions costs considering debris mitigation. The aim is an estimation of the time until the investment in debris mitigation will lead to an effective reduction of mission costs. This paper presents the results of investigations on the key issues of cost estimation for spacecraft and the influence of debris mitigation and shielding on cost. Mitigation strategies like the reduction of orbital lifetime and de- or re-orbit of non-operational satellites are methods to control the space debris environment. These methods result in an increase of costs. In a first step the overall costs of different types of unmanned satellites are analyzed. A selected cost model is simplified and generalized for an application on all operational satellites. In a next step the influence of space debris on cost is treated, if the implementation of mitigation strategies is considered.

Medical mitigation model: quantifying the benefits of the public health response to a chemical terrorism attack.

PubMed

Good, Kevin; Winkel, David; VonNiederhausern, Michael; Hawkins, Brian; Cox, Jessica; Gooding, Rachel; Whitmire, Mark

2013-06-01

The Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) and Chemical Infrastructure Risk Assessment (CIRA) are programs that estimate the risk of chemical terrorism attacks to help inform and improve the US defense posture against such events. One aspect of these programs is the development and advancement of a Medical Mitigation Model-a mathematical model that simulates the medical response to a chemical terrorism attack and estimates the resulting number of saved or benefited victims. At the foundation of the CTRA/CIRA Medical Mitigation Model is the concept of stock-and-flow modeling; "stocks" are states that individuals progress through during the event, while "flows" permit and govern movement from one stock to another. Using this approach, the model is able to simulate and track individual victims as they progress from exposure to an end state. Some of the considerations in the model include chemical used, type of attack, route and severity of exposure, response-related delays, detailed treatment regimens with efficacy defined as a function of time, medical system capacity, the influx of worried well individuals, and medical countermeasure availability. As will be demonstrated, the output of the CTRA/CIRA Medical Mitigation Model makes it possible to assess the effectiveness of the existing public health response system and develop and examine potential improvement strategies. Such a modeling and analysis capability can be used to inform first-responder actions/training, guide policy decisions, justify resource allocation, and direct knowledge-gap studies.

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

PubMed Central

Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.

2015-01-01

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

PubMed

Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

2015-08-18

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

Management of Service Projects in Support of Space Flight Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Love, J.

2009-01-01

Goal:To provide human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies, and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration . [HRP-47051] Specific Objectives: 1) Develop capabilities, necessary countermeasures, and technologies in support of human space exploration, focusing on mitigating the highest risks to human health and performance. 2) Define and improve human spaceflight medical, environmental, and human factors standards. 3) Develop technologies that serve to reduce medical and environmental risks, to reduce human systems resource requirements (mass, volume, power, data, etc.) and to ensure effective human-system integration across exploration systems. 4) Ensure maintenance of Agency core competencies necessary to enable risk reduction in the following areas: A. Space medicine B. Physiological and behavioral effects of long duration spaceflight on the human body C. Space environmental effects, including radiation, on human health and performance D. Space "human factors" [HRP-47051]. Service projects can form integral parts of research-based project-focused programs to provide specialized functions. Traditional/classic project management methodologies and agile approaches are not mutually exclusive paradigms. Agile strategies can be combined with traditional methods and applied in the management of service projects functioning in changing environments. Creative collaborations afford a mechanism for mitigation of constrained resource limitations.

Integrating Research to Reduce Risk and Gain the Benefits for Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcbean, G. A.

2015-12-01

Across all countries there are challenges due to the increasing numbers of hazards creating disasters and impacting on people and property and limiting development. These impacts, in a relative sense relative to population and economy, are larger in developing countries and small island states. The issues of disaster risk reduction, sustainable development goals and climate change mitigation and adaptation are key global issues being addressed through international processes in 2015. Internationally coordinated research, through programs such as Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, Future Earth: Research for Global Sustainability and Health and Wellbeing in the Changing Urban Environment, needs to be supported and their research coordinated so the outputs are effective in policy development and can be used by all countries. A particular challenge is with regard to those extreme and relatively rare events that have huge impacts but societies are not yet effective in "making timely decisions and implementation of the hazard-associated preparedness measures to mitigate humanitarian and economic losses". The challenge for the scientific community is to work with stakeholder communities through a co-design, co-produce and co-deliver approach to enhance the relevance and effectiveness of our science.

Erosion rills offset the efficacy of vegetated buffer strips to mitigate pesticide exposure in surface waters.

PubMed

Stehle, Sebastian; Dabrowski, James Michael; Bangert, Uli; Schulz, Ralf

2016-03-01

Regulatory risk assessment considers vegetated buffer strips as effective risk mitigation measures for the reduction of runoff-related pesticide exposure of surface waters. However, apart from buffer strip widths, further characteristics such as vegetation density or the presence of erosion rills are generally neglected in the determination of buffer strip mitigation efficacies. This study conducted a field survey of fruit orchards (average slope 3.1-12.2%) of the Lourens River catchment, South Africa, which specifically focused on the characteristics and attributes of buffer strips separating orchard areas from tributary streams. In addition, in-stream and erosion rill water samples were collected during three runoff events and GIS-based modeling was employed to predict losses of pesticides associated with runoff. The results show that erosion rills are common in buffer strips (on average 13 to 24 m wide) of the tributaries (up to 6.5 erosion rills per km flow length) and that erosion rills represent concentrated entry pathways of pesticide runoff into the tributaries during rainfall events. Exposure modeling shows that measured pesticide surface water concentrations correlated significantly (R(2)=0.626; p<0.001) with runoff losses predicted by the modeling approach in which buffer strip width was set to zero at sites with erosion rills; in contrast, no relationship between predicted runoff losses and in-stream pesticide concentrations were detected in the modeling approach that neglected erosion rills and thus assumed efficient buffer strips. Overall, the results of our study show that erosion rills may substantially reduce buffer strip pesticide retention efficacies during runoff events and suggest that the capability of buffer strips as a risk mitigation tool for runoff is largely overestimated in current regulatory risk assessment procedures conducted for pesticide authorization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International study of risk-mitigating factors and in-flight allergic reactions to peanut and tree nut.

PubMed

Greenhawt, Matthew; MacGillivray, Fiona; Batty, Geraldine; Said, Maria; Weiss, Christopher

2013-03-01

Three studies have analyzed in-flight peanut/tree nut reactions, although the studies were conducted exclusively among Americans. We studied the international in-flight experience and determined the efficacy of certain risk-mitigation strategies. A 47-question on-line survey was distributed through the websites and social media outlets of the member organizations of the Food Allergy & Anaphylaxis Alliance. Both persons reporting an in-flight reaction and nonreactors were surveyed to assess details of air travel preparation and any reported reaction. Data were analyzed to determine the association among flying behaviors, reported reactions, and nationality. We found that 349 reactions were reported among 3273 respondents from 11 countries; 13.3% received epinephrine as treatment. Flight crews were notified about 50.1% of reactions. Sixty-nine percent of all respondents reported making a preflight accommodation request, although just 55% of reactors did so compared with 71.6% of nonreactors (P < .001). Adjusted odds of epinephrine use were increased with reported gastrointestinal or cardiovascular symptoms or with notifying the crew. Passengers who requested any accommodation, requested a peanut/tree nut-free meal, wiped their tray table, avoided airline pillows or blankets, requested a buffer zone, requested other passengers not consume peanut/tree nut-containing products, or reported not consuming airline-provided food had significantly lower adjusted odds of reporting a reaction. In-flight peanut and tree nut reactions occur internationally. Epinephrine was sparsely used to treat reactions. We identified 8 risk-mitigating behaviors associated with lower odds of a reported reaction. Future study is necessary to further validate the effectiveness of these passenger-initiated risk-mitigating behaviors. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher

2015-01-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

NASA's Risk Management System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food: Workshop Proceedings.

PubMed

Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P; Krishan, Mansi

2016-05-01

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food

PubMed Central

Brorby, Gregory P.; Krishan, Mansi

2016-01-01

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. PMID:27102178

Mitigation of disease- and treatment-related risks in patients with psoriatic arthritis.

PubMed

Bergman, Martin; Lundholm, Amy

2017-03-20

Psoriatic arthritis is a part of the family of diseases referred to as spondyloarthropathies, a diverse group of chronic inflammatory disorders with common clinical, radiographic, and genetic features. Peripheral arthritis is the most common symptom of psoriatic arthritis and patients also frequently experience involvement of the entheses, spine, skin, and nails. Due to the diverse clinical spectrum of disease severity, tissues affected, and associated comorbidities, the treatment of psoriatic arthritis can be challenging and it is necessary to mitigate risks associated with both the disease and its treatment. These risks include disease-specific, treatment-related, and psychological risks. Disease-specific risks include those associated with disease progression that can limit functional status and be mitigated through early diagnosis and initiation of treatment. Risks also arise from comorbidities that are associated with psoriatic arthritis such as cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and gastrointestinal inflammation. Patient outcomes can be affected by the treatment strategy employed and the pharmacologic agents administered. Additionally, it is important for physicians to be aware of risks specific to each therapeutic option. The impact of psoriatic arthritis is not limited to the skin and joints and it is common for patients to experience quality-of-life impairment. Patients are also more likely to have depression, anxiety, and alcoholism. This article reviews the many risks associated with psoriatic arthritis and provides guidance on mitigating these risks.

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

Mitigation effectiveness for improving nesting success of greater sage-grouse influenced by energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirol, Christopher P.; Sutphin, Andrew L.; Bond, Laura S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Maechtle, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush Artemisia spp. habitats being developed for oil and gas reserves are inhabited by sagebrush obligate species — including the greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (sage-grouse) that is currently being considered for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Numerous studies suggest increasing oil and gas development may exacerbate species extinction risks. Therefore, there is a great need for effective on-site mitigation to reduce impacts to co-occurring wildlife such as sage-grouse. Nesting success is a primary factor in avian productivity and declines in nesting success are also thought to be an important contributor to population declines in sage-grouse. From 2008 to 2011 we monitored 296 nests of radio-marked female sage-grouse in a natural gas (NG) field in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA, and compared nest survival in mitigated and non-mitigated development areas and relatively unaltered areas to determine if specific mitigation practices were enhancing nest survival. Nest survival was highest in relatively unaltered habitats followed by mitigated, and then non-mitigated NG areas. Reservoirs used for holding NG discharge water had the greatest support as having a direct relationship to nest survival. Within a 5-km2 area surrounding a nest, the probability of nest failure increased by about 15% for every 1.5 km increase in reservoir water edge. Reducing reservoirs was a mitigation focus and sage-grouse nesting in mitigated areas were exposed to almost half of the amount of water edge compared to those in non-mitigated areas. Further, we found that an increase in sagebrush cover was positively related to nest survival. Consequently, mitigation efforts focused on reducing reservoir construction and reducing surface disturbance, especially when the surface disturbance results in sagebrush removal, are important to enhancing sage-grouse nesting success.

Dietary Selenium for the Mitigation of Radiation Injury: Effects of Selenium Dose Escalation and Timing of Supplementation

PubMed Central

Sieber, Fritz; Muir, Sarah A.; Cohen, Eric P.; Fish, Brian L.; Mäder, Marylou; Schock, Ashley M.; Althouse, Bryan J.; Moulder, John E.

2011-01-01

We recently reported that daily dietary supplementation with 100 μg selenium (a dose exceeding a rat’s nutritional requirement by about 33-fold) initiated immediately after total-body irradiation (TBI) and maintained for 21 weeks mitigates radiation nephropathy in a rat model as indicated by blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels and histopathological criteria (Radiat Res. 2009; 17:368–73). In this follow-up study, we explored the risks and benefits of delaying the onset of supplementation, shortening periods of supplementation, and escalating selenium supplementation beyond 100 μg/day. Supplementation with 200 μg selenium/day (as selenite or seleno-L-methionine) substantially improved the mitigation of radiation nephropathy by lowering BUN levels at 4 months after TBI from 115 to as low as 34 mg/dl and by proportionally lowering the incidence of histopathological abnormalities. Shortening the period of supplementation to 3 or 2 months did not compromise efficacy. Delaying the onset of supplementation for 1 week reduced but did not abrogate the mitigation of radiation nephropathy. Supplementation with 300 μg/day mitigated radiation nephropathy less effectively than 200 μg and was poorly tolerated. Rats that had been given 10 Gy of TBI were less tolerant of high-dose selenium than nonirradiated rats. This reduced tolerance of high-dose selenium would need to be taken into consideration when selenium is used for the mitigation of radiation injury in victims of nuclear accidents or acts of radiological terrorism. The high dose requirements, the pronounced threshold effect, and the superior performance of selenite suggest that the mitigation of radiation nephropathy involves mechanisms that go beyond the induction of selenoproteins. PMID:21867430

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably from 2 840 000 to 9 350 000 €, depending on the selected temporal scenario and the expected closing time of the potentially affected structures. The multi-disciplinary approach discussed in this study may assist local decision makers in determining the nature and magnitude of the expected losses due to a dangerous event, which can be anticipated in a given study area, during a specified time period. Besides, a preventive knowledge of the prospective physical effects and economic consequences may help local decision makers to choose the best prevention and mitigation options and to decide how to allocate resources properly, so that potential benefits are maximised at an acceptable cost.

A Summary of the NASA ISS Space Debris Collision Avoidance Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph

2002-01-01

Creating and implementing a process for the mitigation of the impact hazards due to cornets and asteroids will prove to be a complex and involved process. The closest similar program is the collision avoidance process currently used for protection of the International Space Station (ISS). This process, in operation for over three years, has many similarities to the NEG risk problem. By reviewing the ISS program, a broader perspective on the complications of and requirements for a NEO risk mitigation program might be obtained. Specifically, any lessons learned and continuing issues of concern might prove useful in the development of a NEO risk assessment and mitigation program.

Nurses' Perceptions of Implementing Fall Prevention Interventions to Mitigate Patient-Specific Fall Risk Factors.

PubMed

Wilson, Deleise S; Montie, Mary; Conlon, Paul; Reynolds, Margaret; Ripley, Robert; Titler, Marita G

2016-08-01

Evidence-based (EB) fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors are readily available but not routinely used in practice. Few studies have examined nurses' perceptions about both the use of these EB interventions and implementation strategies designed to promote their adoption. This article reports qualitative findings of nurses' perceptions about use of EB fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risks, and implementation strategies to promote use of these interventions. The findings revealed five major themes: before-study fall prevention practices, use of EB fall prevention interventions tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors, beneficial implementation strategies, overall impact on approach to fall prevention, and challenges These findings are useful to guide nurses' engagement and use of EB fall prevention practices tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors. © The Author(s) 2016.

Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

PubMed

Geiger, Karl

2010-05-01

Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted.

Licensing requirements for the risky driver : a nationwide survey

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-04-01

The primary objective of the survey was to obtain information on current and proposed licensing and renewal policies of the MVAs within the United States, and their effectiveness in identifying and mitigating high risk driving behavior.;See also PB98...

Effect of Fatigue Training on Safety, Fatigue, and Sleep in Emergency Medical Services Personnel and Other Shift Workers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-11

Background: Fatigue training may be an effective way to mitigate fatigue-related risk. We aimed to critically review and synthesize existing literature on the impact of fatigue training on fatigue-related outcomes for Emergency Medical Services (EMS)...

Preventing disasters: public health vulnerability reduction as a sustainable adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Keim, Mark E

2011-06-01

Global warming could increase the number and severity of extreme weather events. These events are often known to result in public health disasters, but we can lessen the effects of these disasters. By addressing the factors that cause changes in climate, we can mitigate the effects of climate change. By addressing the factors that make society vulnerable to the effects of climate, we can adapt to climate change. To adapt to climate change, a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction has been proposed. By reducing human vulnerability to disasters, we can lessen--and at times even prevent--their impact. Human vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that comprises social, economic, health, and cultural factors. Because public health is uniquely placed at the community level, it has the opportunity to lessen human vulnerability to climate-related disasters. At the national and international level, a supportive policy environment can enable local adaptation to disaster events. The purpose of this article is to introduce the basic concept of disaster risk reduction so that it can be applied to preventing and mitigating the negative effects of climate change and to examine the role of community-focused public health as a means for lessening human vulnerability and, as a result, the overall risk of climate-related disasters.

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.

PubMed

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P R; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

Failure mode and effects analysis of the universal anaesthesia machine in two tertiary care hospitals in Sierra Leone

PubMed Central

Rosen, M. A.; Sampson, J. B.; Jackson, E. V.; Koka, R.; Chima, A. M.; Ogbuagu, O. U.; Marx, M. K.; Koroma, M.; Lee, B. H.

2014-01-01

Background Anaesthesia care in developed countries involves sophisticated technology and experienced providers. However, advanced machines may be inoperable or fail frequently when placed into the austere medical environment of a developing country. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a method for engaging local staff in identifying real or potential breakdowns in processes or work systems and to develop strategies to mitigate risks. Methods Nurse anaesthetists from the two tertiary care hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone, participated in three sessions moderated by a human factors specialist and an anaesthesiologist. Sessions were audio recorded, and group discussion graphically mapped by the session facilitator for analysis and commentary. These sessions sought to identify potential barriers to implementing an anaesthesia machine designed for austere medical environments—the universal anaesthesia machine (UAM)—and also engaging local nurse anaesthetists in identifying potential solutions to these barriers. Results Participating Sierra Leonean clinicians identified five main categories of failure modes (resource availability, environmental issues, staff knowledge and attitudes, and workload and staffing issues) and four categories of mitigation strategies (resource management plans, engaging and educating stakeholders, peer support for new machine use, and collectively advocating for needed resources). Conclusions We identified factors that may limit the impact of a UAM and devised likely effective strategies for mitigating those risks. PMID:24833727

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in Nepal and Their Mitigation Practices in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurung, S.

2017-12-01

Glacial lakes in Nepal face a huge risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) due to the ongoing effects of climate change leading to considerable amount of snow and glacier melt thus weakening the natural barriers holding these high altitude glacial lakes. Nepal is at an ever growing risk every year and always waiting for an inevitable natural disaster. Since GLOF can cause extreme huge loss of human lives and physical properties, it has now become very important to design a proper mechanism which helps in reducing hazards from such events. There is little we can do to stop natural disasters, but we can implement pro-active control measures to minimize the loss. Early Warning System is the provision of timely and effective information, which allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action, avoid or reduce risk to life and property and prepare for effective response. The basic idea behind Early Warning System is that, the earlier and more accurately we are able to predict potential risks associated with natural hazards especially flood, the more likely we will be able to manage and mitigate the disasters' impact on society, economies and environment. We are currently focused on the development of early warning system for Imja Glacial Lake. The objective of developing early warning system for Imja GLOF is to help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths by providing information that allows individuals and communities downstream of Imja Lake to protect their lives and properties by using the latest and most advanced technology available. We have installed one Automatic Weather Station near the left lateral moraine of Imja Lake to study the effects of different meteorological parameters so as to predict occurrence of any GLOF event. The sensor includes pluviometer, pyranometer, temperature and humidity sensor, wind sensor, Snowdepth sensor. Two radar level sensors are installed at the outlet of Imja Lake and downstream of Imja river for water level measurement. Also, ten movements and volumetric water content sensors are installed to detect occurrence of any GLOF event.

Integrated Cost and Schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model - 12419

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hulett, David T.; Nosbisch, Michael R.

This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost,more » and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)« less

Predicting and Mitigating Outbreaks of Vector-Borne Disease Utilizing Satellite Remote Sensing Technology and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Sue M.

2009-01-01

The Public Health application area focuses on Earth science applications to public health and safety, particularly regarding infectious disease, emergency preparedness and response, and environmental health issues. The application explores issues of toxic and pathogenic exposure, as well as natural and man-made hazards and their effects, for risk characterization/mitigation and improvements to health and safety. The program elements of the NASA Applied Sciences Program are: Agricultural Efficiency, Air Quality, Climate, Disaster Management, Ecological Forecasting, Water Resources, Weather, and Public Health.

Methodological framework for the probabilistic risk assessment of multi-hazards at a municipal scale: a case study in the Fella river valley, Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, Haydar; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola

2013-04-01

Local and regional authorities in mountainous areas that deal with hydro-meteorological hazards like landslides and floods try to set aside budgets for emergencies and risk mitigation. However, future losses are often not calculated in a probabilistic manner when allocating budgets or determining how much risk is acceptable. The absence of probabilistic risk estimates can create a lack of preparedness for reconstruction and risk reduction costs and a deficiency in promoting risk mitigation and prevention in an effective way. The probabilistic risk of natural hazards at local scale is usually ignored all together due to the difficulty in acknowledging, processing and incorporating uncertainties in the estimation of losses (e.g. physical damage, fatalities and monetary loss). This study attempts to set up a working framework for a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of landslides and floods at a municipal scale using the Fella river valley (Eastern Italian Alps) as a multi-hazard case study area. The emphasis is on the evaluation and determination of the uncertainty in the estimation of losses from multi-hazards. To carry out this framework some steps are needed: (1) by using physically based stochastic landslide and flood models we aim to calculate the probability of the physical impact on individual elements at risk, (2) this is then combined with a statistical analysis of the vulnerability and monetary value of the elements at risk in order to include their uncertainty in the risk assessment, (3) finally the uncertainty from each risk component is propagated into the loss estimation. The combined effect of landslides and floods on the direct risk to communities in narrow alpine valleys is also one of important aspects that needs to be studied.

Developing Global Building Exposure for Disaster Forecasting, Mitigation, and Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huyck, C. K.

2016-12-01

Nongovernmental organizations and governments are recognizing the importance of insurance penetration in developing countries to mitigate the tremendous setbacks that follow natural disasters., but to effectively manage risk stakeholders must accurately quantify the built environment. Although there are countless datasets addressing elements of buildings, there are surprisingly few that are directly applicable to assessing vulnerability to natural disasters without skewing the spatial distribution of risk towards known assets. Working with NASA center partners Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University in New York (http://www.ciesin.org), ImageCat have developed a novel method of developing Global Exposure Data (GED) from EO sources. The method has been applied to develop exposure datasets for GFDRR, CAT modelers, and aid in post-earthquake allocation of resources for UNICEF.

Space Radiation and Risks to Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huff, Janice L.

2014-01-01

The radiation environment in space poses significant challenges to human health and is a major concern for long duration manned space missions. Outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere, astronauts are exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays, whose physical characteristics are distinct from terrestrial sources of radiation such as x-rays and gamma-rays. Galactic cosmic rays consist of high energy and high mass nuclei as well as high energy protons; they impart unique biological damage as they traverse through tissue with impacts on human health that are largely unknown. The major health issues of concern are the risks of radiation carcinogenesis, acute and late decrements to the central nervous system, degenerative tissue effects such as cardiovascular disease, as well as possible acute radiation syndromes due to an unshielded exposure to a large solar particle event. The NASA Human Research Program's Space Radiation Program Element is focused on characterization and mitigation of these space radiation health risks along with understanding these risks in context of the other biological stressors found in the space environment. In this overview, we will provide a description of these health risks and the Element's research strategies to understand and mitigate these risks.

Health Risks and Adverse Reactions to Functional Foods.

PubMed

Ameratunga, Rohan; Crooks, Christine; Simmons, Greg; Woon, See-Tarn

2016-01-01

Functional foods have become increasingly popular with consumers anxious to mitigate the effects of an unhealthy lifestyle or aging. In spite of attractive health claims, these products do not have legal or regulatory status in most countries and are regulated through their health claims. Regulation of functional foods by health claims does not address health risks and adverse effects of these products. In this essay regulatory aspects of functional foods are reviewed along with adverse effects published in the peer-reviewed literature. We detail why the lack of an internationally accepted definition of functional foods places consumers at risk of adverse outcomes. Our review will assist regulatory agencies, manufacturers and consumer groups to assess the benefits and reduce the risks associated with these products.

The Use of Filter-feeders to Manage Disease in a Changing World.

PubMed

Burge, Colleen A; Closek, Collin J; Friedman, Carolyn S; Groner, Maya L; Jenkins, Cody M; Shore-Maggio, Amanda; Welsh, Jennifer E

2016-10-01

Rapid environmental change is linked to increases in aquatic disease heightening the need to develop strategies to manage disease. Filter-feeding species are effective biofilters and can naturally mitigate disease risk to humans and wildlife. We review the role of filter-feeders, with an emphasis on bivalves, in altering disease outcomes via augmentation and reduction. Filtration can reduce transmission by removing pathogens from the water column via degradation and release of pathogens in pseudofeces. In other cases, filtration can increase pathogen transmission and disease risk. The effect of filtration on pathogen transmission depends on the selectivity of the filter-feeder, the degree of infectivity by the pathogen, the mechanism(s) of pathogen transmission and the ability of the pathogen to resist degradation. For example, some bacteria and viruses can resist degradation and accumulate within a filter-feeder leading to disease transmission to humans and other wildlife upon ingestion. Since bivalves can concentrate microorganisms, they are also useful as sentinels for the presence of pathogenic microorganisms. While somewhat less studied, other invertebrates, including ascidians and sponges may also provide ecosystem services by altering pathogen transmission. In all scenarios, climate change may affect the potential for filter-feeders to mitigate disease risk. We conclude that an assessment including empirical data and modeling of system-wide impacts should be conducted before selection of filter-feeders to mitigate disease. Such studies should consider physiology of the host and microbe and risk factors for negative impacts including augmentation of other pathogens. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Green Is the New Black: The Need for a New Currency That Values Water Resources in Rapidly Developing Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creed, I. F.; Webster, K. L.; Kreutzweiser, D. P.; Beall, F.

2014-12-01

Canada's boreal forest supports many aquatic ecosystem services (AES) due to the intimate linkage between aquatic systems and their surrounding terrestrial watersheds in forested landscapes. There is an increasing risk to AES because natural development activities (forest management, mining, energy) have resulted in disruptions that deteriorate aquatic ecosystems at local (10s of km2) to regional (100s of km2) scales. These activities are intensifying and expanding, placing at risk the healthy aquatic ecosystems that provide AES and may threaten the continued development of the energy, forest, and mining sectors. Remarkably, we know little about the consequences of these activities on AES. The idea that AES should be explicitly integrated into modern natural resource management regulations is gaining broad acceptance. A major need is the ability to measure cumulative effects and determine thresholds (the points where aquatic ecosystems and their services cannot recover to a desired state within a reasonable time frame) in these cumulative effects. However, there is no single conceptual approach to assessing cumulative effects that is widely accepted by both scientists and managers. We present an integrated science-policy framework that enables the integration of AES into forest management risk assessment and prevention/mitigation strategies. We use this framework to explore the risk of further deterioration of AES by (1) setting risk criteria; (2) using emerging technologies to map process-based indicators representing causes and consequences of risk events to the deterioration of AES; (3) assessing existing prevention and mitigation policies in place to avoid risk events; and (4) identifying priorities for policy change needed to reduce risk event. Ultimately, the success of this framework requires that higher value be placed on AES, and in turn to improve the science and management of the boreal forest.

Incident Learning and Failure-Mode-and-Effects-Analysis Guided Safety Initiatives in Radiation Medicine

PubMed Central

Kapur, Ajay; Goode, Gina; Riehl, Catherine; Zuvic, Petrina; Joseph, Sherin; Adair, Nilda; Interrante, Michael; Bloom, Beatrice; Lee, Lucille; Sharma, Rajiv; Sharma, Anurag; Antone, Jeffrey; Riegel, Adam; Vijeh, Lili; Zhang, Honglai; Cao, Yijian; Morgenstern, Carol; Montchal, Elaine; Cox, Brett; Potters, Louis

2013-01-01

By combining incident learning and process failure-mode-and-effects-analysis (FMEA) in a structure-process-outcome framework we have created a risk profile for our radiation medicine practice and implemented evidence-based risk-mitigation initiatives focused on patient safety. Based on reactive reviews of incidents reported in our departmental incident-reporting system and proactive FMEA, high safety-risk procedures in our paperless radiation medicine process and latent risk factors were identified. Six initiatives aimed at the mitigation of associated severity, likelihood-of-occurrence, and detectability risks were implemented. These were the standardization of care pathways and toxicity grading, pre-treatment-planning peer review, a policy to thwart delay-rushed processes, an electronic whiteboard to enhance coordination, and the use of six sigma metrics to monitor operational efficiencies. The effectiveness of these initiatives over a 3-years period was assessed using process and outcome specific metrics within the framework of the department structure. There has been a 47% increase in incident-reporting, with no increase in adverse events. Care pathways have been used with greater than 97% clinical compliance rate. The implementation of peer review prior to treatment-planning and use of the whiteboard have provided opportunities for proactive detection and correction of errors. There has been a twofold drop in the occurrence of high-risk procedural delays. Patient treatment start delays are routinely enforced on cases that would have historically been rushed. Z-scores for high-risk procedures have steadily improved from 1.78 to 2.35. The initiatives resulted in sustained reductions of failure-mode risks as measured by a set of evidence-based metrics over a 3-years period. These augment or incorporate many of the published recommendations for patient safety in radiation medicine by translating them to clinical practice. PMID:24380074

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

Disruption mitigation with high-pressure helium gas injection on EAST tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, D. L.; Shen, B.; Granetz, R. S.; Qian, J. P.; Zhuang, H. D.; Zeng, L.; Duan, Y.; Shi, T.; Wang, H.; Sun, Y.; Xiao, B. J.

2018-03-01

High pressure noble gas injection is a promising technique to mitigate the effect of disruptions in tokamaks. In this paper, results of mitigation experiments with low-Z massive gas injection (helium) on the EAST tokamak are reported. A fast valve has been developed and successfully implemented on EAST, with valve response time  ⩽150 μs, capable of injecting up to 7 × 1022 particles, corresponding to 300 times the plasma inventory. Different amounts of helium gas were injected into stable plasmas in the preliminary experiments. It is seen that a small amount of helium gas (N_He≃ N_plasma ) can not terminate a discharge, but can trigger MHD activity. Injection of 40 times the plasma inventory impurity (N_He≃ 40× N_plasma ) can effectively radiate away part of the thermal energy and make the electron density increase rapidly. The mitigation result is that the current quench time and vertical displacement can both be reduced significantly, without resulting in significantly higher loop voltage. This also reduces the risk of runaway electron generation. As the amount of injected impurity gas increases, the gas penetration time decreases slowly and asymptotes to (˜7 ms). In addition, the impurity gas jet has also been injected into VDEs, which are more challenging to mitigate that stable plasmas.

A New Technique for Mitigating Risk on US College Campuses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Stephanie; White, Rebecca J.; Hertz, Giles

2008-01-01

High-profile criminal acts continue to plague United States (US) college campuses despite recent efforts to implement more aggressive risk mitigation practices, such as criminal background checks. Despite these efforts, incidents such as the most recent shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University continue to demonstrate that,…

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

DOE PAGES

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; ...

2016-04-25

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of keymore » socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.« less

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of keymore » socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.« less

An Analysis of Department of Energy Cost Proposal Process and Effectiveness

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-11

processes to mitigate and manage risk , rather than derive upfront assessment and quantification of proposal risk (DoE, 2008a). The proposal...2. GM 2- Enhance the Federal Contract and Project Management Workforce Substantially Complete 3. GM 3 - Improve Project Risk Assessment ...proposal, contract proposal evaluation, risk , cost analysis = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v - ii

Stingray Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis: WEC Risk Registers

DOE Data Explorer

Ken Rhinefrank

2016-07-25

Analysis method to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the Stingray WEC system. This analysis is incorporated early in the development cycle such that the mitigation of the identified failure modes can be achieved cost effectively and efficiently. The FMECA can begin once there is enough detail to functions and failure modes of a given system, and its interfaces with other systems. The FMECA occurs coincidently with the design process and is an iterative process which allows for design changes to overcome deficiencies in the analysis.Risk Registers for major subsystems completed according to the methodology described in "Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Risk Reduction Program Plan.pdf" document below, in compliance with the DOE Risk Management Framework developed by NREL.

The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pokorny, Frank M.

2004-01-01

As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in risk management and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Ethical aspects of the mitigation obstruction argument against climate engineering research.

PubMed

Morrow, David R

2014-12-28

Many commentators fear that climate engineering research might lead policy-makers to reduce mitigation efforts. Most of the literature on this so-called 'moral hazard' problem focuses on the prediction that climate engineering research would reduce mitigation efforts. This paper focuses on a related ethical question: Why would it be a bad thing if climate engineering research obstructed mitigation? If climate engineering promises to be effective enough, it might justify some reduction in mitigation. Climate policy portfolios involving sufficiently large or poorly planned reductions in mitigation, however, could lead to an outcome that would be worse than the portfolio that would be chosen in the absence of further climate engineering research. This paper applies three ethical perspectives to describe the kinds of portfolios that would be worse than that 'baseline portfolio'. The literature on climate engineering identifies various mechanisms that might cause policy-makers to choose these inferior portfolios, but it is difficult to know in advance whether the existence of these mechanisms means that climate engineering research really would lead to a worse outcome. In the light of that uncertainty, a precautionary approach suggests that researchers should take measures to reduce the risk of mitigation obstruction. Several such measures are suggested. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

An Earthling to an Astronaut: Medical Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Jeffrey R.

2011-01-01

Humans can travel safely into space in low Earth orbit (LEO) or to near-Earth objects if several medical, physiological, environmental, and human factors issues risks are mitigated. Research must be performed in order to set standards in these four areas, and current NASA standards are contained in the Space Flight Human System Standards volumes 1 and 2, and crew medical certification standards. These three sets of standards drive all of the clinical, biomedical research and environmental technology development for the NASA human space flight program. These standards also drive the identification of specific risks to crew health and safety, and we currently manage 65 human system risks within the human space flight program. Each risk has a specific program of research, technology development, and development of operational procedures to mitigate the risks. Some of the more important risks tat will be discussed in this talk include exposure to radiation, behavioral health due to confinement in a closed cabin, physiological changes such as loss of bone, muscle and exercise capability, reduction in immune system capability, environmental threats of maintaining an adequate atmosphere and water for drinking, avoidance of toxic or infectious material, protection of hearing, and human factors issues of equipment and task design. A nutritious and varied food supply must also be provided. All of these risks will be discussed and current strategies for mitigating these risks for long-duration human space flight. In mitigating these 65 human system risks, novel approaches to problem solving must be employed to find the most appropriate research and technology based applications. Some risk mitigations are developed internally to NASA while others are found through research grants, technology procurements, and more recently open innovation techniques to seek solutions from the global technical community. Examples and results will be presented from all of these approaches including the more recent use of prizes to stimulate innovation.

Insurability and mitigation of flood losses in private households in Germany.

PubMed

Thieken, Annegret H; Petrow, Theresia; Kreibich, Heidi; Merz, Bruno

2006-04-01

In Germany, flood insurance is provided by private insurers as a supplement to building or contents insurance. This article presents the results of a survey of insurance companies with regard to eligibility conditions for flood insurance changes after August 2002, when a severe flood caused 1.8 billion euro of insured losses in the Elbe and the Danube catchment areas, and the general role of insurance in flood risk management in Germany. Besides insurance coverage, governmental funding and public donations played an important role in loss compensation after the August 2002 flood. Therefore, this article also analyzes flood loss compensation, risk awareness, and mitigation in insured and uninsured private households. Insured households received loss compensation earlier. They also showed slightly better risk awareness and mitigation strategies. Appropriate incentives should be combined with flood insurance in order to strengthen future private flood loss mitigation. However, there is some evidence that the surveyed insurance companies do little to encourage precautionary measures. To overcome this problem, flood hazards and mitigation strategies should be better communicated to both insurance companies and property owners.

Post-wildfire logging hinders regeneration and increases fire risk.

PubMed

Donato, D C; Fontaine, J B; Campbell, J L; Robinson, W D; Kauffman, J B; Law, B E

2006-01-20

We present data from a study of early conifer regeneration and fuel loads after the 2002 Biscuit Fire, Oregon, USA, with and without postfire logging. Natural conifer regeneration was abundant after the high-severity fire. Postfire logging reduced median regeneration density by 71%, significantly increased downed woody fuels, and thus increased short-term fire risk. Additional reduction of fuels is necessary for effective mitigation of fire risk. Postfire logging can be counterproductive to the goals of forest regeneration and fuel reduction.

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

[Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

PubMed

Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

2011-10-01

The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

Trade-offs of Solar Geoengineering and Mitigation under Climate Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Stankoweit, M.; Roshan, E.; Schmidt, H.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Scientific analyses have hitherto focused on the pros and cons of solar-radiation management (SRM) as a climate-policy option mainly in mere isolation. Here we put SRM into the context of mitigation by a strictly temperature-target-based approach. To the best of our knowledge, for the first time, we introduce a concept for a regional integrated analysis of SRM and mitigation in-line with the `2°C target'. We explicitly account for a risk-risk comparison of SRM and global warming, extending the applicability regime of temperature targets from mitigation-only to joint-SRM-mitigation analysis while minimizing economic costs required for complying with the 2°C target. Upgrading it to include SRM, we employ the integrated energy-economy-climate model MIND. We utilize the two-box climate model of DICE and calibrate the short and long time scales respectively into GeoMIP G3 experiment and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations experiment from CEMIP5 suite. Our results show that without risk-risk accounting SRM will displace mitigation. However, our analysis highlights that the value system enshrined in the 2°C target can almost preclude SRM; this is exemplified by one single regional climate variable, here precipitation, which is confined to regional bounds compatible with 2°C of global warming. Although about a half of policy costs can be saved, the results indicate that the additional amount of CO2 that could be released to the atmosphere corresponds to only 0.2°C of further global warming. Hence, the society might debate whether the risks of SRM should be taken for that rather small amount of additional carbon emissions. Nonetheless, our results point out a significantly larger role for SRM implementation if the guardrails of some regions are relaxed.

Endogenous mitigation of H2S inside of the landfills.

PubMed

Fang, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Shen, Dongsheng; Du, Yao; Xu, Jing; Long, Yuyang

2016-02-01

Vast quantities of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) emitted from landfill sites require urgent disposal. The current study focused on source control and examined the migration and conversion behavior of sulfur compounds in two lab-scale simulated landfills with different operation modes. It aimed to explore the possible strategies and mechanisms for H2S endogenous mitigation inside of landfills during decomposition. It was found that the strength of H2S emissions from the landfill sites was dependent on the municipal solid waste (MSW) degradation speed and vertical distribution of sulfide. Leachate recirculation can shorten both the H2S influence period and pollution risk to the surrounding environment. H2S endogenous mitigation may be achieved by chemical oxidation, biological oxidation, adsorption, and/or precipitation in different stages. Migration and conversion mainly affected H2S release behavior during the initial stabilization phase in the landfill. Microbial activities related to sulfur, nitrogen, and iron can further promote H2S endogenous mitigation during the high reducing phase. Thus, H2S endogenous mitigation can be effectively enhanced via control of the aforementioned processes.

Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

2014-05-01

Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2013) Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Environmental Change. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.009. Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005): Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - Lessons Learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. NHESS, 5, 1, 117-126. Kreibich, H., Christenberger, S., Schwarze, R. (2011) Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods. NHESS, 11, 2, 309-321.

Effects of Napping During Shift Work on Sleepiness and Performance in Emergency Medical Services Personnel and Similar Shift Workers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-11

Background: Scheduled napping during work shifts may be an effective way to mitigate fatigue-related risk. This study aimed to critically review and synthesize existing literature on the impact of scheduled naps on fatigue-related outcomes for EMS pe...

Women, mercury and artisanal gold mining : Risk communication and mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinton, J. J.; Veiga, M. M.; Beinhoff, C.

2003-05-01

Artisanal miners employ rudimentary techniques for minéral extraction and often operate under hazardous, labour intensive, highly disorganized and illegal conditions. Gold is the main mineral extracted by artisanal miners, and the ecological and human health impacts resulting from mercury (Hg) use in gold extraction warrant special consideration. More than 30% of world's 13 million artisanal miners are women and, as they are often perceived to be less suited for labour intensive mining methods, the majority of women work in the processing aspect of artisanal mining, including amalgamation with Hg. As women are also predominantly responsible for food preparation, they are in an excellent position to respond to health risks associated with consumption of Hg-contaminated foods in impacted areas. In addition to their influence on consumption habits, women in artisanal mining communities may be in a position to effect positive change with respect to the technologies employed. Thus, gender sensitive approaches are necessary to reduce exposure risks to women and their families, promote clean technologies and support the development of stronger, healthier artisanal mining communities. This paper describes the roles of women in artisanal gold mining, highlights their importance in reducing the Hg exposure in these communities, and provides insight into how risks from Hg pollution can effectively be communicated and mitigated.

78 FR 56225 - Information Collection Request Submitted to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment Request; Soil...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-12

... Submitted to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment Request; Soil Fumigant Risk Mitigation AGENCY... with the Paperwork Reduction Act: ``Soil Fumigant Risk Mitigation'' (EPA ICR No. 2451.01, OMB Control... eligibility for certain soil fumigant chemicals are adequately implemented. Under section 3(c)(2)(B) of the...

Organic amendments for risk mitigation of organochlorine pesticide residues in old orchard soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Performance of compost and biochar amendments for in situ risk mitigation of aged DDT, DDE and dieldrin residues in an old orchard soil was examined. The change in bioavailability of pesticide residues relative to an unamended control soil was assessed using Lumbricus terrestris in 4-L soil microcos...

Bone metabolism and renal stone risk during International Space Station missions.

PubMed

Smith, Scott M; Heer, Martina; Shackelford, Linda C; Sibonga, Jean D; Spatz, Jordan; Pietrzyk, Robert A; Hudson, Edgar K; Zwart, Sara R

2015-12-01

Bone loss and renal stone risk are longstanding concerns for astronauts. Bone resorption brought on by spaceflight elevates urinary calcium and the risk of renal stone formation. Loss of bone calcium leads to concerns about fracture risk and increased long-term risk of osteoporosis. Bone metabolism involves many factors and is interconnected with muscle metabolism and diet. We report here bone biochemistry and renal stone risk data from astronauts on 4- to 6-month International Space Station missions. All had access to a type of resistive exercise countermeasure hardware, either the Advanced Resistance Exercise Device (ARED) or the Interim Resistance Exercise Device (iRED). A subset of the ARED group also tested the bisphosphonate alendronate as a potential anti-resorptive countermeasure (Bis+ARED). While some of the basic bone marker data have been published, we provide here a more comprehensive evaluation of bone biochemistry with a larger group of astronauts. Regardless of exercise, the risk of renal stone formation increased during spaceflight. A key factor in this increase was urine volume, which was lower during flight in all groups at all time points. Thus, the easiest way to mitigate renal stone risk is to increase fluid consumption. ARED use increased bone formation without changing bone resorption, and mitigated a drop in parathyroid hormone in iRED astronauts. Sclerostin, an osteocyte-derived negative regulator of bone formation, increased 10-15% in both groups of astronauts who used the ARED (p<0.06). IGF-1, which regulates bone growth and formation, increased during flight in all 3 groups (p<0.001). Our results are consistent with the growing body of literature showing that the hyper-resorptive state of bone that is brought on by spaceflight can be countered pharmacologically or mitigated through an exercise-induced increase in bone formation, with nutritional support. Key questions remain about the effect of exercise-induced alterations in bone metabolism on bone strength and fracture risk. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Exploring the Role of Piwi/piRNA Pathway in Epigenetic Dysregulation in Low Dose Radiation Induced Cardiovascular Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jejelowo, O. A.; Tariq, M. A.

2018-02-01

We will utilize multi-omics to identify robust biomarkers and to understand radiation effects and develop countermeasures. Information obtained will enhance development of capabilities to monitor health in real time and for mitigation of risks.

Impact of Perceptual Speed Calming Curve Countermeasures on Drivers’ Anticipation and Mitigation Ability : A Driving Simulator Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-02-01

Horizontal curves are unavoidable in rural roads and are a serious crash risk to vehicle occupants. This study investigates the impact and effectiveness of three curve-based perceptual speed-calming countermeasures (advance curve warning signs, chevr...

Roadside vegetation barrier designs to mitigate near-road air pollution impacts

EPA Science Inventory

With increasing evidence that exposures to air pollution near large roadways increases risks of a number of adverse human health effects, identifying methods to reduce these exposures has become a public health priority. Roadside vegetation barriers have shown the potential to re...

[Harm related to medical device use - legal and organisational risks].

PubMed

Hölscher, U M

2014-12-01

The effectiveness of the risk management systems established by medical device manufacturers and health-care facilities is clearly mitigated by European and national legal provisions. Laws, regulations and authorities prevent the systematic exchange of much safety-relevant information. The obligation to report adverse events is suspended for many relevant risks associated with medical device use. Reporting into the vigilance system is of little avail for users. Reporting even may endanger the information provider. The federal fragmentation of the German vigilance system poses a risk for patients. Risk management in health-care facilities without risk policy is dangerously incomplete. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

PubMed

Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

2013-04-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

Risk mitigation measures for diffuse pesticide entry into aquatic ecosystems: proposal of a guide to identify appropriate measures on a catchment scale.

PubMed

Bereswill, Renja; Streloke, Martin; Schulz, Ralf

2014-04-01

Measures to mitigate the risk of pesticide entry into aquatic ecosystems are becoming increasingly more important in the management of hot spots of pesticide transfer; such management, for example, is required by the European Union's directive for the sustainable use of pesticides (2009/128/EC). Measures beyond those currently stipulated for pesticide product authorization may be needed. A concise compilation of the appropriate measures for users (that are primarily farmers but also, e.g., regulators and farm extension services) and a guide for practically identifying these measures at the catchment scale is currently not available. Therefore, a proposal was developed for a guide focusing on the most important diffuse entry pathways (spray drift and runoff). Based on a survey of exposure-relevant landscape parameters (i.e., the riparian buffer strip width, riparian vegetation type, density of ground vegetation cover, coverage of the water body with aquatic macrophytes, field slope, and existence of concentrated flow paths), a set of risk mitigation measures focusing on the specific situation of pollution of a water body catchment can be identified. The user can then choose risk mitigation measures to implement, assisted by evaluations of their efficiency in reducing pesticide entry, feasibility, and expected acceptability to farmers. Currently, 12 landscape-related measures and 6 application-related measures are included. The present guide presents a step toward the practical implementation of risk mitigation measures for reducing pesticide entry in aquatic ecosystems. © 2013 SETAC.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks.

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana

2014-01-01

Most businesses recognize that people will make mistakes and assume errors are just part of the cost of doing business, but does it need to be? Companies with high risk, or major consequences, should consider the effect of human error. In a variety of industries, Human Errors have caused costly failures and workplace injuries. These have included: airline mishaps, medical malpractice, administration of medication and major oil spills have all been blamed on human error. A technique to mitigate or even eliminate some of these costly human errors is the use of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). Various methodologies are available to perform Human Reliability Assessments that range from identifying the most likely areas for concern to detailed assessments with human error failure probabilities calculated. Which methodology to use would be based on a variety of factors that would include: 1) how people react and act in different industries, and differing expectations based on industries standards, 2) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 3) type and availability of data and 4) how the industry views risk & reliability influences ( types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks versus cost based concerns). The Human Reliability Assessments should be the first step to reduce, mitigate or eliminate the costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify human error risks allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these risks and prevent costly failures.

Space Transportation System Liftoff Debris Mitigation Process Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, Michael; Riley, Christopher

2011-01-01

Liftoff debris is a top risk to the Space Shuttle Vehicle. To manage the Liftoff debris risk, the Space Shuttle Program created a team with in the Propulsion Systems Engineering & Integration Office. The Shutt le Liftoff Debris Team harnesses the Systems Engineering process to i dentify, assess, mitigate, and communicate the Liftoff debris risk. T he Liftoff Debris Team leverages off the technical knowledge and expe rtise of engineering groups across multiple NASA centers to integrate total system solutions. These solutions connect the hardware and ana lyses to identify and characterize debris sources and zones contribut ing to the Liftoff debris risk. The solutions incorporate analyses sp anning: the definition and modeling of natural and induced environmen ts; material characterizations; statistical trending analyses, imager y based trajectory analyses; debris transport analyses, and risk asse ssments. The verification and validation of these analyses are bound by conservative assumptions and anchored by testing and flight data. The Liftoff debris risk mitigation is managed through vigilant collab orative work between the Liftoff Debris Team and Launch Pad Operation s personnel and through the management of requirements, interfaces, r isk documentation, configurations, and technical data. Furthermore, o n day of launch, decision analysis is used to apply the wealth of ana lyses to case specific identified risks. This presentation describes how the Liftoff Debris Team applies Systems Engineering in their proce sses to mitigate risk and improve the safety of the Space Shuttle Veh icle.

HIV-Risk Behaviors and Social Support Among Men and Women Attending Alcohol-Serving Venues in South Africa: Implications for HIV Prevention.

PubMed

Velloza, Jennifer; Watt, Melissa H; Abler, Laurie; Skinner, Donald; Kalichman, Seth C; Dennis, Alexis C; Sikkema, Kathleen J

2017-11-01

Alcohol use is associated with increased HIV-risk behaviors, including unprotected sex and number of sex partners. Alcohol-serving venues can be places to engage in HIV-related sexual risk behaviors, but are also important sites of social support for patrons, which may mitigate risks. We sought to examine the relationship between alcohol-serving venue attendance, social support, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior, by gender, in South Africa. Adult patrons (n = 496) were recruited from six alcohol-serving venues and completed surveys assessing frequency of venue attendance, venue-based social support, and recent sexual behaviors. Generalized estimating equations tested associations between daily venue attendance, social support, and sexual behaviors, separately by gender. Interaction effects between daily attendance and social support were assessed. Models were adjusted for venue, age, education, and ethnicity. Daily attendance at venues was similar across genders and was associated with HIV-related risk behaviors, but the strength and direction of associations differed by gender. Among women, daily attendance was associated with greater number of partners and higher proportion of unprotected sex. Social support was a significant moderator, with more support decreasing the strength of the relationship between attendance and risk. Among men, daily attendance was associated with a lower proportion of unprotected sex; no interaction effects were found for attendance and social support. Frequent venue attendance is associated with additional HIV-related risks for women, but this risk is mitigated by social support in venues. These results were not seen for men. Successful HIV interventions in alcohol-serving venues should address the gendered context of social support and sexual risk behavior.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

Risk analysis using AS/NZS 4360:2004, Bow-Tie diagram and ALARP on construction projects of Banyumanik Hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Diana Puspita; Pujotomo, Darminto; Wardani, Nadira Kusuma

2017-11-01

The Determination of risk is an uncertain event. Risks can have negative or positive impacts on project objectives. A project was defined as a series of activities and tasks that have a purpose, specifications, and limits of cost. Banyumanik Hospital Development Project is one of the construction projects in Semarang which have experienced some problems. The first problem is project delays on building stake. The second problem is delay of material supply. Finally, the problem that occurs is less management attention to health safety as evidenced by the unavailability of PPE for the workers. These problems will pose a risk to be a very important risk management performed by contractors at the Banyumanik Hospital Development Project to reduce the impact that would be caused by the risk borne by the provider of construction services. This research aim to risk identification, risk assessment and risk mitigation. Project risk management begins with the identification of risks based on the project life cycle. The risk assessment carried out by AS I NZS 4360: 2004 to the impacts of cost, time and quality. The results obtained from the method of AS I NZS 4360: 2004 is the risk that requires the handling of mitigation. Mitigated risk is the risk that had significant and high level. There are four risks that require risk mitigation with Bow-Tie diagrams which is work accidents, contract delays, material delays and design changes. Bow-Tie diagram method is a method for identifying causal and preventive action and recovery of a risk. Results obtained from Bow-Tie diagram method is a preventive action and recovery. This action is used as input to the ALARP method. ALARP method is used to determine the priority of the strategy proposed in the category broadly acceptable, tolerable, and unacceptable.

An Analytic Model for DoD Investment & Divestment Decisions (Briefing Charts)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

cost drives Strategic; Performance mixed; cost drives Invest Insurance Risk Mitigation √ “Making Trade-Offs in Corporate Portfolio Decisions...Effects (SE) + Insurance Intended externalities, unintended consequences Are SE measureable? Do they add/subtract so NPV is worthwhile? Deadweight...Sustainable Cost Effective Cost is supportable, LPO outsourced, or is income Advantageous NPV? Y Y Y Y either N N N N Secondary Effects+ Insurance

Mitigating Inadvertent Insider Threats with Incentives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Debin; Wang, Xiaofeng; Camp, L. Jean

Inadvertent insiders are trusted insiders who do not have malicious intent (as with malicious insiders) but do not responsibly managing security. The result is often enabling a malicious outsider to use the privileges of the inattentive insider to implement an insider attack. This risk is as old as conversion of a weak user password into root access, but the term inadvertent insider is recently coined to identify the link between the behavior and the vulnerability. In this paper, we propose to mitigate this threat using a novel risk budget mechanism that offers incentives to an insider to behave according to the risk posture set by the organization. We propose assigning an insider a risk budget, which is a specific allocation of risk points, allowing employees to take a finite number of risk-seeking choice. In this way, the employee can complete her tasks without subverting the security system, as with absolute prohibitions. In the end, the organization penalizes the insider if she fails to accomplish her task within the budget while rewards her in the presence of a surplus. Most importantly. the risk budget requires that the user make conscious visible choices to take electronic risks. We describe the theory behind the system, including specific work on the insider threats. We evaluated this approach using human-subject experiments, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our risk budget mechanism. We also present a game theoretic analysis of the mechanism.

Pancreatic fistula risk for pancreatoduodenectomy: an international survey of surgeon perception.

PubMed

McMillan, Matthew T; Malleo, Giuseppe; Bassi, Claudio; Sprys, Michael H; Ecker, Brett L; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Vollmer, Charles M

2017-06-01

Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is a morbid complication following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). It is unclear how pancreatic surgeons perceive risk for this complication, and the implications thereof. A web-based survey was distributed to members of 22 international GI surgical societies. CR-POPF risk factors were categorized as follows: (i) patient factors, (ii) pancreatic gland characteristics, (iii) intraoperative variables, (iv) perioperative mitigation techniques, or (v) institutional features. Surveys were completed by 897 surgeons worldwide. The most commonly cited contributors to CR-POPF risk were gland characteristics (90.7%), while patient and intraoperative factors were selected 71.2 and 69.3% of the time, respectively. Conversely, institutional features (31.7%) and perioperative mitigation techniques (21.3%) were rarely recognized. Eighty percent of surgeons use drain amylase concentration to guide drain removal decision-making; however, only 45.2% of surgeon remove drains early based upon drain amylase values. When evaluating clinical scenarios, surgeons were able to identify both negligible and high risk scenarios but struggled to differentiate between low and moderate CR-POPF risk. This international study analyzed how surgeons discern CR-POPF risk for PD. There was considerable variability in surgeons' perceptions of risk, which may have an adverse effect on the clinical use of risk adjustment measures. Copyright © 2017 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A tool for cost-effectiveness analysis of field scale sediment-bound phosphorus mitigation measures and application to analysis of spatial and temporal targeting in the Lunan Water catchment, Scotland.

PubMed

Vinten, Andy; Sample, James; Ibiyemi, Adekunle; Abdul-Salam, Yakubu; Stutter, Marc

2017-05-15

The cost-effectiveness of six edge-of-field measures for mitigating diffuse pollution from sediment bound phosphorus (P) runoff from temperate arable farmland is analysed at catchment/field scales. These measures were: buffer strips, permanent grassland in the lowest 7% of arable fields, dry detention bunds, wetlands, and temporary barriers such as sediment fences. Baseline field P export was estimated using export coefficients (low risk crops) or a modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (high risk crops). The impact of measures was estimated using simple equations. Costs were estimated from gross margin losses or local data on grants. We used a net cost:benefit (NCB) factor to normalise the costs and impacts of each measure over time. Costs minimisation for target impact was done using PuLP, a linear programming module for Python, across 1634 riparian and non-riparian fields in the Lunan Water, a mixed arable catchment in Eastern Scotland. With all measures in place, average cost-effectiveness increases from £9 to £48/kg P as target P mitigation increases from 500 to 2500kg P across the catchment. Costs increase significantly when the measures available are restricted only to those currently eligible for government grants (buffers, bunds and wetlands). The assumed orientation of the average field slope makes a strong difference to the potential for storage of water by bunds and overall cost-effectiveness, but the non-funded measures can substitute for the extra expense incurred by bunds, where the slope orientation is not suitable. Economic discounting over time of impacts and costs of measures favours those measures, such as sediment fences, which are strongly targeted both spatially and temporally. This tool could be a useful guide for dialogue with land users about the potential fields to target for mitigation to achieve catchment targets. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interdisciplinary approach to hydrological hazard mitigation and disaster response and effects of climate change on the occurrence of flood severity in central Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kontar, Y. Y.; Bhatt, U. S.; Lindsey, S. D.; Plumb, E. W.; Thoman, R. L.

2015-06-01

In May 2013, a massive ice jam on the Yukon River caused flooding that destroyed much of the infrastructure in the Interior Alaska village of Galena and forced the long-term evacuation of nearly 70% of its residents. This case study compares the communication efforts of the out-of-state emergency response agents with those of the Alaska River Watch program, a state-operated flood preparedness and community outreach initiative. For over 50 years, the River Watch program has been fostering long-lasting, open, and reciprocal communication with flood prone communities, as well as local emergency management and tribal officials. By taking into account cultural, ethnic, and socioeconomic features of rural Alaskan communities, the River Watch program was able to establish and maintain a sense of partnership and reliable communication patterns with communities at risk. As a result, officials and residents in these communities are open to information and guidance from the River Watch during the time of a flood, and thus are poised to take prompt actions. By informing communities of existing ice conditions and flood threats on a regular basis, the River Watch provides effective mitigation efforts in terms of ice jam flood effects reduction. Although other ice jam mitigation attempts had been made throughout US and Alaskan history, the majority proved to be futile and/or cost-ineffective. Galena, along with other rural riverine Alaskan communities, has to rely primarily on disaster response and recovery strategies to withstand the shock of disasters. Significant government funds are spent on these challenging efforts and these expenses might be reduced through an improved understanding of both the physical and climatological principals behind river ice breakup and risk mitigation. This study finds that long term dialogue is critical for effective disaster response and recovery during extreme hydrological events connected to changing climate, timing of river ice breakup, and flood occurrence in rural communities of the Far North.

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

PubMed

Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

2016-04-15

Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term prospects: Mitigation of supernova and gamma-ray burst threat to intelligent beings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ćirković, Milan M.; Vukotić, Branislav

2016-12-01

We consider global catastrophic risks due to cosmic explosions (supernovae, magnetars and gamma-ray bursts) and possible mitigation strategies by humans and other hypothetical intelligent beings. While by their very nature these events are so huge to daunt conventional thinking on mitigation and response, we wish to argue that advanced technological civilizations would be able to develop efficient responses in the domain of astroengineering within their home planetary systems. In particular, we suggest that construction of shielding swarms of small objects/particles confined by electromagnetic fields could be one way of mitigating the risk of cosmic explosions and corresponding ionizing radiation surges. Such feats of astroengineering could, in principle, be detectable from afar by advanced Dysonian SETI searches.

Catchment scale afforestation for mitigating flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Mhari; Quinn, Paul; Bathurst, James; Birkinshaw, Stephen

2016-04-01

After the 2013-14 floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. At present, 1 in 6 homes in Britain are at risk of flooding and current EU legislation demands a sustainable, 'nature-based solution'. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management technique remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. SHETRAN, physically-based spatially-distributed hydrological models of the Irthing catchment and Wark forest sub-catchments (northern England) have been developed in order to test the hypothesis of the effect trees have on flood magnitude. The advanced physically-based models have been designed to model scale-related responses from 1, through 10, to 100km2, a first study of the extent to which afforestation and woody debris runoff attenuation features (RAFs) may help to mitigate floods at the full catchment scale (100-1000 km2) and on a national basis. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, and the installation of nature-based RAFs, such as woody debris dams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. The impacts of riparian planting and the benefits of adding large woody debris of several designs and on differing sizes of channels has also been simulated using advanced hydrodynamic (HiPIMS) and hydrological modelling (SHETRAN). With the aim of determining the effect forestry may have on flood frequency, 1000 years of generated rainfall data representative of current conditions has been used to determine the difference between current land-cover, different distributions of forest cover and the defining scenarios - complete forest removal and complete afforestation of the catchment. The simulations show the percentage of forestry required to have a significant impact on mitigating downstream flood risk at sub-catchment and catchment scale. Key words: Flood peak, nature-based solutions, forest hydrology, hydrological modelling, SHETRAN, flood frequency, flood magnitude, land-cover change, upland afforestation.

USDA Southwest climate hub for climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up...

12 CFR 391.22 - Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... mitigation of identity theft. 391.22 Section 391.22 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION... Reporting § 391.22 Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft. (a) Scope... identity theft, including financial, operational, compliance, reputation, or litigation risks. (4) Credit...

12 CFR 391.22 - Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... mitigation of identity theft. 391.22 Section 391.22 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION... Reporting § 391.22 Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft. (a) Scope... identity theft, including financial, operational, compliance, reputation, or litigation risks. (4) Credit...

12 CFR 391.22 - Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... mitigation of identity theft. 391.22 Section 391.22 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION... Reporting § 391.22 Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft. (a) Scope... identity theft, including financial, operational, compliance, reputation, or litigation risks. (4) Credit...

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

PubMed Central

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

Impaired drug absorption due to high stomach pH: a review of strategies for mitigation of such effect to enable pharmaceutical product development.

PubMed

Mitra, Amitava; Kesisoglou, Filippos

2013-11-04

Published reports have clearly shown that weakly basic drugs which have low solubility at high pH could have impaired absorption in patients with high gastric pH thus leading to reduced and variable bioavailability. Since such reduction in exposure can lead to significant loss of efficacy, it is imperative to (1) understand the behavior of the compound as a function of stomach pH to inform of any risk of bioavailability loss in clinical studies and (2) develop a robust formulation which can provide adequate exposure in achlorhydric patients. In this review paper, we provide an overview of the factors that can cause high gastric pH in human, discuss clinical and preclinical pharmacokinetic data for weak bases under conditions of normal and high gastric pH, and give examples of formulation strategies to minimize or mitigate the reduced absorption of weakly basic drugs under high gastric pH conditions. It should be noted that the ability to overcome pH sensitivity issues is highly compound dependent and there are no obvious and general solutions to overcome such effect. Further, we discuss, along with several examples, the use of biopharmaceutical tools such as in vitro dissolution, absorption modeling, and gastric pH modified animal models to assess absorption risk of weak bases in high gastric pH and also the use of these tools to enable development of formulations to mitigate such effects.

U.S. Reliance on Foreign IT: Mitigating Risks Associated with Foreign Sources of Hardware Components, Summer 2008 - Project 08-03

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

REPORT MAY 2008 - AUGUST 2008 U.S. Reliance on Foreign IT: Mitigating Risks Associated with Foreign Sources of Hardware Components N/A N/A N/A 08...Clinger-Cohen Act CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIO Chief Information Officer CMOS Complimentary Metal -Oxide Semiconductor DARPA Defense Advanced

The national database of wildfire mitigation programs: state, county and local efforts reduce wildfire risk

Treesearch

Terry Haines; Cheryl Renner; Margaret Reams; James Granskog

2005-01-01

The growth of residential communities within forested areas has increased the danger to life and property from uncontrolled wildfire. In response, states, counties and local governments in the United States have dramatically increased their wildfire mitigation efforts. Policymakers and fire officials are employing a wide range of regulatory and voluntary wildfire risk...

49 CFR 228.407 - Analysis of work schedules; submissions; FRA review and approval of submissions; fatigue...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... TRANSPORTATION HOURS OF SERVICE OF RAILROAD EMPLOYEES; RECORDKEEPING AND REPORTING; SLEEPING QUARTERS Substantive... fatigue mitigation tools to reduce the risk for fatigue to a level that does not violate the fatigue... mitigation tools so as to present a risk for a level of fatigue that does not violate the applicable fatigue...

49 CFR 228.407 - Analysis of work schedules; submissions; FRA review and approval of submissions; fatigue...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... TRANSPORTATION HOURS OF SERVICE OF RAILROAD EMPLOYEES; RECORDKEEPING AND REPORTING; SLEEPING QUARTERS Substantive... fatigue mitigation tools to reduce the risk for fatigue to a level that does not violate the fatigue... mitigation tools so as to present a risk for a level of fatigue that does not violate the applicable fatigue...

49 CFR 228.407 - Analysis of work schedules; submissions; FRA review and approval of submissions; fatigue...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... TRANSPORTATION HOURS OF SERVICE OF RAILROAD EMPLOYEES; RECORDKEEPING AND REPORTING; SLEEPING QUARTERS Substantive... fatigue mitigation tools to reduce the risk for fatigue to a level that does not violate the fatigue... mitigation tools so as to present a risk for a level of fatigue that does not violate the applicable fatigue...

Mitigating the Risk of Environmental Hazards in Mexico

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-28

consultant reports, country data, media reports, medical studies, government websites, environmental data, and Congressional testimony. iv... medications , immunizations, or personal protective equipment). DoD Instruction Number 6490.03, dated August 2006, states the objective is “to...complexity, with the potential for tragic medical outcomes in the absence of a risk mitigation strategy. 8 EXPOSURES DURING PAST DEPLOYMENTS

Density dependence governs when population responses to multiple stressors are magnified or mitigated.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Halpern, Benjamin S

2017-10-01

Population endangerment typically arises from multiple, potentially interacting anthropogenic stressors. Extensive research has investigated the consequences of multiple stressors on organisms, frequently focusing on individual life stages. Less is known about population-level consequences of exposure to multiple stressors, especially when exposure varies through life. We provide the first theoretical basis for identifying species at risk of magnified effects from multiple stressors across life history. By applying a population modeling framework, we reveal conditions under which population responses from stressors applied to distinct life stages are either magnified (synergistic) or mitigated. We find that magnification or mitigation critically depends on the shape of density dependence, but not the life stage in which it occurs. Stressors are always magnified when density dependence is linear or concave, and magnified or mitigated when it is convex. Using Bayesian numerical methods, we estimated the shape of density dependence for eight species across diverse taxa, finding support for all three shapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Uncertainty as Impetus for Climate Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Oreskes, N.; Risbey, J.

2015-12-01

For decades, the scientific community has called for actions to be taken to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change. To date, those calls have found little substantial traction, and politicians and the general public are instead engaged in a debate about the causes and effects of climate change that bears little resemblance to the state of scientific knowledge. Uncertainty plays a pivotal role in that public debate, and arguments against mitigation are frequently couched in terms of uncertainty. We show that the rhetorical uses of scientific uncertainty in public debate by some actors (often with vested interests or political agendas) contrast with the mathematical result that greater uncertainty about the extent of warming is virtually always associated with an increased risk: The expected damage costs increase as a function of uncertainty about future warming. We suggest ways in which the actual implications of scientific uncertainty can be better communicated and how scientific uncertainty should be understood as an impetus, rather than a barrier, for climate mitigation.

Documenting the Intangible and the Use of "collective Memory" as a Tool for Risk Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekim, Z.; Güney, E. E.; Vatan, M.

2017-08-01

Increasing immigration activities due to globalized economies, political conflicts, wars and disasters of the recent years not only had a serious impact on the tangible heritage fabric, but also on the intangible values of heritage sites. With the challenges of managing drastic changes the field of heritage is faced with in mind, this paper proposes a documentation strategy that utilizes "collective memory" as a tool for risk mitigation of culturally diverse sites. Intangible and tangible values of two cases studies, from Turkey and Canada, are studied in a comparative way to create a methodology for the use of collected data on "collective memory and identity" in risk mitigation and managing change as a living value of the site.

Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever.

PubMed

Wieland, Barbara; Dhollander, Sofie; Salman, Mo; Koenen, Frank

2011-04-01

In the absence of data, qualitative risk assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the risk pathways risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The qualitative risk assessment indicated a moderate risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a risk assessment as it helped experts to disassociate steps in the risk pathway and to overcome preconceived notions of final risk estimates. The approach presented here shows how a qualitative risk assessment framework can address animal diseases with complexity in their spread and control measures and how transparency of the resulting estimates was achieved. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mitigation in Multiple Effects of Graphene Oxide Toxicity in Zebrafish Embryogenesis Driven by Humic Acid.

PubMed

Chen, Yuming; Ren, Chaoxiu; Ouyang, Shaohu; Hu, Xiangang; Zhou, Qixing

2015-08-18

Graphene oxide (GO) is a widely used carbonaceous nanomaterial. To date, the influence of natural organic matter (NOM) on GO toxicity in aquatic vertebrates has not been reported. During zebrafish embryogenesis, GO induced a significant hatching delay and cardiac edema. The intensive interactions of GO with the chorion induces damage to chorion protuberances, excessive generation of (•)OH, and changes in protein secondary structure. In contrast, humic acid (HA), a ubiquitous form of NOM, significantly relieved the above adverse effects. HA reduced the interactions between GO and the chorion and mitigated chorion damage by regulating the morphology, structures, and surface negative charges of GO. HA also altered the uptake and deposition of GO and decreased the aggregation of GO in embryonic yolk cells and deep layer cells. Furthermore, HA mitigated the mitochondrial damage and oxidative stress induced by GO. This work reveals a feasible antidotal mechanism for GO in the presence of NOM and avoids overestimating the risks of GO in the natural environment.

Early intervention following trauma may mitigate genetic risk for PTSD in civilians: a pilot prospective emergency department study.

PubMed

Rothbaum, Barbara O; Kearns, Megan C; Reiser, Emily; Davis, Jennifer S; Kerley, Kimberly A; Rothbaum, Alex O; Mercer, Kristina B; Price, Matthew; Houry, Debra; Ressler, Kerry J

2014-12-01

Civilian posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and combat PTSD are major public health concerns. Although a number of psychosocial risk factors have been identified related to PTSD risk, there are no accepted, robust biological predictors that identify who will develop PTSD or who will respond to early intervention following trauma. We wished to examine whether genetic risk for PTSD can be mitigated with an early intervention. 65 emergency department patients recruited in 2009-2010 at Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta, Georgia, who met criterion A of DSM-IV PTSD received either 3 sessions of an exposure intervention, beginning in the emergency department shortly after trauma exposure or assessment only. PTSD symptoms were assessed 4 and 12 weeks after trauma exposure. A composite additive risk score was derived from polymorphisms in 10 previously identified genes associated with stress-response (ADCYAP1R1, COMT, CRHR1, DBH, DRD2, FAAH, FKBP5, NPY, NTRK2, and PCLO), and gene x treatment effects were examined. The intervention included 3 sessions of imaginal exposure to the trauma memory and additional exposure homework. The primary outcome measure was the PTSD Symptom Scale-Interview Version or DSM-IV-based PTSD diagnosis in patients related to genotype and treatment group. A gene x intervention x time effect was detected for individual polymorphisms, in particular the PACAP receptor, ADCYAP1R1, as well as with a combined genotype risk score created from independent SNP markers. Subjects who did not receive treatment had higher symptoms than those who received intervention. Furthermore, subjects with the "risk" genotypes who did not receive intervention had higher PTSD symptoms compared to those with the "low-risk" or "resilience" genotypes or those who received intervention. Additionally, PTSD symptoms correlated with level of genetic risk at week 12 (P < .005) in the assessment-only group, but with no relationship in the intervention group, even after controlling for age, sex, race, education, income, and childhood trauma. Using logistic regression, the number of risk alleles was significantly associated with likelihood of PTSD diagnosis at week 12 (P < .05). This pilot prospective study suggests that combined genetic variants may serve to predict those most at risk for developing PTSD following trauma. A psychotherapeutic intervention initiated in the emergency department within hours of the trauma may mitigate this risk. The role of genetic predictors of risk and resilience should be further evaluated in larger, prospective intervention and prevention trials. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00895518. © Copyright 2014 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Disaster mitigation action plan: Digital media on improving accountability and community relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adila, I.; Dewi, W. W. A.; Tamitiadini, D.; Syauki, W. R.

2017-06-01

This study wants to address on how communication science is applied to Disaster Mitigation Plan. Especially, the implementation of Community Media and Development of Communication Technology that synergize to create a Disaster Mitigation Medium, which is appropriate for typology of Indonesia. Various levels of priorities that include disaster mitigation information, namely, increasing chain system of early warning systems, building evacuation, improving alertness and capacity to face a disaster, as well as minimizing disaster risk factor. Through this concept, mitigation actions plan of Tulungagung Coastal areas is expected to be applied in other regions in Indonesia by BNPB (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana). Having this strategy to be implemented based on region characteristics, it is expected that risk reduction process can be run optimally. As a result, the strategy is known as Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (PRBBK), which means as the organized-efforts by society for pra-, during, and post- disaster by using available resources as much as possible to prevent, reduce, avoid, and recover from the impact of disasters. Therefore, this result can be a Pilot Project for BNBP Indonesia, as a government decisive attitude for the next steps in protecting people residing in the region prone to natural disasters all over Indonesia.

The Upside of Helicopter Parenting: Engaging Parents to Reduce First-Year Student Drinking

PubMed Central

Earle, Andrew M.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

2016-01-01

University personnel tend to view “helicopter” parents as problematic. This paper presents an alternative view in which these highly engaged parents can instead be utilized productively. We describe and assess the fidelity of a novel program in which involved parents were effectively leveraged to mitigate student alcohol-related risk. The feasibility of utilizing similar programs at other schools is discussed as are implications for alcohol risk prevention. PMID:27818727

The Upside of Helicopter Parenting: Engaging Parents to Reduce First-Year Student Drinking.

PubMed

Earle, Andrew M; LaBrie, Joseph W

2016-01-01

University personnel tend to view "helicopter" parents as problematic. This paper presents an alternative view in which these highly engaged parents can instead be utilized productively. We describe and assess the fidelity of a novel program in which involved parents were effectively leveraged to mitigate student alcohol-related risk. The feasibility of utilizing similar programs at other schools is discussed as are implications for alcohol risk prevention.

Risk mitigation strategies for viral contamination of biotechnology products: consideration of best practices.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Amy S; Cherney, Barry; Brorson, Kurt; Clouse, Kathleen; Kozlowski, Steven; Hughes, Patricia; Friedman, Rick

2011-01-01

CONFERENCE PROCEEDING Proceedings of the PDA/FDA Adventitious Viruses in Biologics: Detection and Mitigation Strategies Workshop in Bethesda, MD, USA; December 1-3, 2010 Guest Editors: Arifa Khan (Bethesda, MD), Patricia Hughes (Bethesda, MD) and Michael Wiebe (San Francisco, CA) Viral contamination of biotech product facilities is a potentially devastating manufacturing risk and, unfortunately, is more common than is generally reported or previously appreciated. Although viral contaminants of biotech products are thought to originate principally from biological raw materials, all potential process risks merit evaluation. Limitations to existing methods for virus detection are becoming evident as emerging viruses have contaminated facilities and disrupted supplies of critical products. New technologies, such as broad-based polymerase chain reaction screens for multiple virus types, are increasingly becoming available to detect adventitious viral contamination and thus, mitigate risks to biotech products and processes. Further, the industry embrace of quality risk management that promotes improvements in testing stratagems, enhanced viral inactivation methods for raw materials, implementation and standardization of robust viral clearance procedures, and efforts to learn from both epidemiologic screening of raw material sources and from the experience of other manufacturers with regard to this problem will serve to enhance the safety of biotech products available to patients. Based on this evolving landscape, we propose a set of principles for manufacturers of biotech products: Pillars of Risk Mitigation for Viral Contamination of Biotech Products.

Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

2013-04-01

The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

Preparing for Euro 2012: developing a hazard risk assessment.

PubMed

Wong, Evan G; Razek, Tarek; Luhovy, Artem; Mogilevkina, Irina; Prudnikov, Yuriy; Klimovitskiy, Fedor; Yutovets, Yuriy; Khwaja, Kosar A; Deckelbaum, Dan L

2015-04-01

Risk assessment is a vital step in the disaster-preparedness continuum as it is the foundation of subsequent phases, including mitigation, response, and recovery. To develop a risk assessment tool geared specifically towards the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Euro 2012. In partnership with the Donetsk National Medical University, Donetsk Research and Development Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics, Donetsk Regional Public Health Administration, and the Ministry of Emergency of Ukraine, a table-based tool was created, which, based on historical evidence, identifies relevant potential threats, evaluates their impacts and likelihoods on graded scales based on previous available data, identifies potential mitigating shortcomings, and recommends further mitigation measures. This risk assessment tool has been applied in the vulnerability-assessment-phase of the UEFA Euro 2012. Twenty-three sub-types of potential hazards were identified and analyzed. Ten specific hazards were recognized as likely to very likely to occur, including natural disasters, bombing and blast events, road traffic collisions, and disorderly conduct. Preventative measures, such as increased stadium security and zero tolerance for impaired driving, were recommended. Mitigating factors were suggested, including clear, incident-specific preparedness plans and enhanced inter-agency communication. This hazard risk assessment tool is a simple aid in vulnerability assessment, essential for disaster preparedness and response, and may be applied broadly to future international events.

Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T.

The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9more » days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20–120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.« less

Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation

DOE PAGES

Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T.; ...

2015-06-01

The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9more » days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20–120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.« less

Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

PubMed

Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

2015-06-01

The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

2015-04-01

Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the implementation phase of floodwalls, when the floodwalls are placed at any arrangement other than parallel to the flow (e.g. along river bends in meandering channels or at river junctions). Such considerations can lead to site-specific optimal designs of direct flood defenses with the rising floodwall system, both in terms of product performance as well as cost efficiency.

Substance use disorders among registered nurses: prevalence, risks and perceptions in a disciplinary jurisdiction.

PubMed

Kunyk, Diane

2015-01-01

To investigate substance use disorders, impaired practice and health risks among nurses in a disciplinary jurisdiction. The relationship between substance-related risks to patient safety, nurse health and discipline is understudied. A convenience sample of 4064 registered nurses responded to an Internet survey in 2010. Self-reports were given to psychometrically robust measures of health, substance use disorders and organisational support. Perceptions on the treatment and disposition of impaired nurses were also asked. The prevalence of substance use disorders was similar to the general population. Most nurses' coded high risk for impaired practices were working, unknown by their employer/regulator and not receiving treatment. When compared with nurse-peers, their health and organisational support were compromised. Nurse-peers viewed impaired nurses as having a treatable illness that their employers/regulators should assist and afford confidentiality. In this jurisdiction, discipline was not rated as effective for risk mitigation, supportive of nurses with substance use disorders or in alignment with nurse perceptions. Nursing managers play a significant role in addressing substance-related issues among nurses and can be key to influencing the outcomes of these difficult situations. For these reasons, it is important they recognize the ineffectiveness of discipline for substance-related risk mitigation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tradeoffs in Risk and Return of Financial Hedging Solutions to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Risks for Water Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Financial hedging solutions have been examined as tools for effectively mitigating water scarcity related financial risks for water utilities, and have become more prevalent as conservation (resulting in reduced revenues) and water transfers (resulting in increased costs) play larger roles in drought management. Individualized financial contracts (i.e. designed for a single utility) provide evidence of the potential benefits of financial hedging. However, individualized contracts require substantial time and information to develop, limiting their widespread implementation. More generalized contracts have also shown promise, and would allow the benefits of risk pooling to be more effectively realized, resulting in less expensive contracts. Risk pooling reduces the probability of an insurer making payouts that deviate significantly from the mean, but given that the financial risks of drought are spatially correlated amongst utilities, these more extreme "fat tail" risks remain. Any group offering these hedging contracts, whether a third-party insurer or a "mutual" comprised of many utilities, will need to balance the costs (i.e. additional risk) and benefits (i.e. returns) of alternative approaches to managing the extreme risks (e.g. through insurance layers). The balance of these different approaches will vary depending on the risk pool being considered, including the number, size and exposure of the participating utilities. This work first establishes a baseline of the tradeoffs between risk and expected return in insuring against the financial risks of water scarcity without alternative hedging approaches for water utilities across all climate divisions of the United States. Then various scenarios are analyzed to provide insight into how to maximize returns for risk pooling portfolios at various risk levels through balancing different insurance layers and hedging approaches. This analysis will provide valuable information for designing optimal financial risk management strategies for water utilities across the United States.

Advances in Atmospheric Radiation Measurements and Modeling Needed to Improve Air Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Atwell, William; Beck, Peter; Benton, Eric; Copeland, Kyle; Dyer, Clive; Gersey, Brad; Getley, Ian; Hands, Alex; Holland, Michael; Hong, Sunhak; Hwang, Junga; Jones, Bryn; Malone, Kathleen; Meier, Matthias M.; Mertens, Chris; Phillips, Tony; Ryden, Keith; Schwadron, Nathan; Wender, Stephen A.; Wilkins, Richard; Xapsos, Michael A.

2015-04-01

Air safety is tied to the phenomenon of ionizing radiation from space weather, primarily from galactic cosmic rays but also from solar energetic particles. A global framework for addressing radiation issues in this environment has been constructed, but more must be done at international and national levels. Health consequences from atmospheric radiation exposure are likely to exist. In addition, severe solar radiation events may cause economic consequences in the international aviation community due to exposure limits being reached by some crew members. Impacts from a radiation environment upon avionics from high-energy particles and low-energy, thermalized neutrons are now recognized as an area of active interest. A broad community recognizes that there are a number of mitigation paths that can be taken relative to the human tissue and avionics exposure risks. These include developing active monitoring and measurement programs as well as improving scientific modeling capabilities that can eventually be turned into operations. A number of roadblocks to risk mitigation still exist, such as effective pilot training programs as well as monitoring, measuring, and regulatory measures. An active international effort toward observing the weather of atmospheric radiation must occur to make progress in mitigating radiation exposure risks. Stakeholders in this process include standard-making bodies, scientific organizations, regulatory organizations, air traffic management systems, aircraft owners and operators, pilots and crew, and even the public.

Risk Evaluation for Identification and Intervention in Dual Use Research of Concern (DURC) for International Biological R&D Activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Katherine A.; DeMenno, Mercy; Hoffman, Matthew John

This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough tomore » support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.« less

Policy learning for flood mitigation: a longitudinal assessment of the community rating system in Florida.

PubMed

Brody, Samuel D; Zahran, Sammy; Highfield, Wesley E; Bernhardt, Sarah P; Vedlitz, Arnold

2009-06-01

Floods continue to inflict the most damage upon human communities among all natural hazards in the United States. Because localized flooding tends to be spatially repetitive over time, local decisionmakers often have an opportunity to learn from previous events and make proactive policy adjustments to reduce the adverse effects of a subsequent storm. Despite the importance of understanding the degree to which local jurisdictions learn from flood risks and under what circumstances, little if any empirical, longitudinal research has been conducted along these lines. This article addresses the research gap by examining the change in local flood mitigation policies in Florida from 1999 to 2005. We track 18 different mitigation activities organized into four series of activities under the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS) for every local jurisdiction in Florida participating in the FEMA program on a yearly time step. We then identify the major factors contributing to policy changes based on CRS scores over the seven-year study period. Using multivariate statistical models to analyze both natural and social science data, we isolate the effects of several variables categorized into the following groups: hydrologic conditions, flood disaster history, socioeconomic and human capital controls. Results indicate that local jurisdictions do in fact learn from histories of flood risk and this process is expedited under specific conditions.

Moderating factors in the path from physical abuse to attempted suicide in adolescents: application of the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicide.

PubMed

Cero, Ian; Sifers, Sarah

2013-06-01

Childhood physical abuse is a major risk factor for suicide attempt, but factors that moderate this risk remain largely unexamined. Moderated mediation analysis was used with 186 adolescents who responded to the Profiles of Student Life: Attitudes and Behavior survey. Physical abuse increased risk directly and indirectly through reduced self-esteem. Involvement in youth programs moderated the direct effect. Community service moderated the indirect effect. Results indicate 2 hours per week of involvement in youth programs and 2 hours per week of community service mitigated suicide attempt risk associated with abuse. Providing avenues for youth experiencing abuse to increase their community service and involvement is recommended. © 2013 The American Association of Suicidology.

Effect of Task Load Interventions on Fatigue in Emergency Medical Services Personnel and Other Shift Workers: A Systematic Review

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-11

Modifying the task load of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel may mitigate fatigue, sleep quality and fatigue related risks. A review of the literature addressing task load interventions may benefit EMS administrators as they craft policies r...

The Effects of Source Water Quality on Drinking Water Treatment Costs: A Review and Synthesis of Empirical Literature - Ecological Economics

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed protection, and associated in situ water quality improvements, has received considerable attention as a means of mitigating health risks and avoiding expenditures at drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs). This study reviews the extant cost function literature linking ...

A driving simulator investigation of road safety risk mitigation under reduced visibility : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

The effect of low visibility on both crash occurrence and severity is a major concern in the traffic safety field. It is known that crashes tend to be more severe in low visibility conditions than under normal clear conditions. Thus, there is a drast...

Behavioral Health and Performance, Risk to Mitigation Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leveton, Lauren; Whitemire, Alexandra

2009-01-01

This poster reviews the working of the Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) group, which supports the research element which manages an integrated program for future space flight. The BHP operations group supports astronauts and their families in all phases of the International Space Station Mission, and post mission effects.

Integrating watershed- and farm-scale modeling framework for targeting critical source areas while maintaining farm economic viability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative risk assessments of pollution and data related to the effectiveness of mitigating best management practices (BMPs) are important aspects of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control efforts, particularly those driven by specific water quality objectives and by measurable improvement goals...

49 CFR 224.1 - Purpose and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REFLECTORIZATION OF RAIL FREIGHT ROLLING STOCK General § 224.1 Purpose and scope... rolling stock so as to increase its detectability by motor vehicle operators at night and under conditions of poor visibility. (b) In order to achieve cost-effective mitigation of collision risk at highway...

Metabolic Syndromes Associated with HIV: Mitigating the Side Effects of Drug Therapy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stringer, William W.; Sattler, Fred R.

2001-01-01

HIV infection and highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) are associated with such metabolic disorders as AIDS wasting syndrome, metabolic dysregulation, and abnormalities of serum lipids. Adjunctive therapies (e.g., diet and antilipid therapy); risk factor modification (e.g., smoking cessation and blood pressure control); aerobic exercise;…

The Effects of Source Water Quality on Drinking Water Treatment Costs: A Review and Synthesis of Empirical Literature - slides

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed protection, and associated in situ water quality improvements, has received considerable attention as a means of mitigating health risks and avoiding expenditures at drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs). In this presentation, we review the literature linking raw wate...

Effects of Low-Oxygen Environments on the radiation tolerance of the cabbage looper moth (Lepidoptera: noctuidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ionizing radiation is phytosanitary treatment to mitigate risks associated with trade of fresh fruits and vegetables. Commodity producers wish to irradiate fresh product stored in modified atmosphere packaging that increases shelf life and delays ripening. However, irradiating insects in anoxia incr...

Optimizing spacecraft design - optimization engine development : progress and plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Dunphy, Julia R; Salcedo, Jose; Menzies, Tim

2003-01-01

At JPL and NASA, a process has been developed to perform life cycle risk management. This process requires users to identify: goals and objectives to be achieved (and their relative priorities), the various risks to achieving those goals and objectives, and options for risk mitigation (prevention, detection ahead of time, and alleviation). Risks are broadly defined to include the risk of failing to design a system with adequate performance, compatibility and robustness in addition to more traditional implementation and operational risks. The options for mitigating these different kinds of risks can include architectural and design choices, technology plans and technology back-up options, test-bed and simulation options, engineering models and hardware/software development techniques and other more traditional risk reduction techniques.

The hidden costs of coastal hazards: Implications for risk assessment and mitigation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kunreuther, H.; Platt, R.; Baruch, S.; Bernknopf, R.L.; Buckley, M.; Burkett, V.; Conrad, D.; Davidson, T.; Deutsch, K.; Geis, D.; Jannereth, M.; Knap, A.; Lane, H.; Ljung, G.; McCauley, M.; Mileti, D.; Miller, T.; Morrow, B.; Meyers, J.; Pielke, R.; Pratt, A.; Tripp, J.

2000-01-01

Society has limited hazard mitigation dollars to invest. Which actions will be most cost effective, considering the true range of impacts and costs incurred? In 1997, the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment began a two-year study with a panel of experts to help develop new strategies to identify and reduce the costs of weather-related hazards associated with rapidly increasing coastal development activities.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards presents the panel's findings, offering the first in-depth study that considers the costs of coastal hazards to natural resources, social institutions, business, and the built environment. Using Hurricane Hugo, which struck South Carolina in 1989, as a case study, it provides for the first time information on the full range of economic costs caused by a major coastal hazard event. The book:describes and examines unreported, undocumented, and hidden costs such as losses due to business interruption, reduction in property values, interruption of social services, psychological trauma, damage to natural systems, and othersexamines the concepts of risk and vulnerability, and discusses conventional approaches to risk assessment and the emerging area of vulnerability assessmentrecommends a comprehensive framework for developing and implementing mitigation strategiesdocuments the human impact of Hurricane Hugo and provides insight from those who lived through it.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards takes a structured approach to the problem of coastal hazards, offering a new framework for community-based hazard mitigation along with specific recommendations for implementation. Decisionmakers -- both policymakers and planners -- who are interested in coastal hazard issues will find the book a unique source of new information and insight, as will private-sector decisionmakers including lenders, investors, developers, and insurers of coastal property.

Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change.

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Woodruff, Rosalie

2006-12-01

The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the longterm and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.

Approach for Assessing Direct Flood Damages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaňová, Lenka; Zeleňáková, Martina; Słyś, Daniel; Purcz, Pavol

2014-11-01

This article presents a methodological approach to flood direct tangible damage - damage to assets and direct intangible damage - environmental damage and loss of life assessment. The assessment of flood risk is an essential part of the risk management approach, which is the conceptual basis for the EU directive 2007/60/ES on the assessment and management of flood risk. The purpose of this directive is to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risk, aiming at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with flood in the community. Overall, an accurate estimation of negative effects on assets, environment and people is important in order to be able to determine the economy, environmental and social flood risk level in a system and the effects of risk mitigation measures.

Couple Relationship Functioning as a Source or Mitigator of HIV Risk: Associations Between Relationship Quality and Sexual Risk Behavior in Peri-urban Uganda.

PubMed

Ruark, Allison; Kajubi, Phoebe; Ruteikara, Sam; Green, Edward C; Hearst, Norman

2018-04-01

Despite evidence that a greater focus on couples could strengthen HIV prevention efforts, little health-related research has explored relationship functioning and relationship quality among couples in Africa. Using data from 162 couples (324 individuals) resident in a peri-urban Ugandan community, we assessed actor and partner effects of sexual risk behaviors on relationship quality, using psychometric measures of dyadic adjustment, sexual satisfaction, commitment, intimacy, and communication. For women and men, poor relationship quality was associated with having concurrent sexual partners and suspecting that one's partner had concurrent sexual partners (actor effects). Women's poor relationship quality was also associated with men's sexual risk behaviors (partner effects), although the inverse partner effect was not observed. These findings suggest that relationship quality is linked to HIV risk, particularly through the pathway of concurrent sexual partnerships, and that positive relationship attributes such as sexual satisfaction, intimacy, and constructive communication can help couples to avoid risk.

Identification and Evaluation of Integration and Cross Cutting Issues Across HRP Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, S. L.; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

The HRP Integrated Research Plan contains the research plans for the 32 risks requiring research to characterize and mitigate. These risks to human health and performance in spaceflight are identified by evidence and each one focuses on a single aspect of human physiology or performance. They are further categorized by aspects of the spaceflight environment, such as altered gravity or space radiation, that that play a major role in their likelihood and consequence. From its inception the "integrate" in the Research Plan has denoted the integrated nature of risks to human health and performance, the connectedness of physiological systems within the human body regardless of the spaceflight environment, and the integrated response of the human body to the spaceflight environment. Common characteristics of the spaceflight environment include altered gravity, atmospheres and light/dark cycles, space radiation, isolation, noise, and periods of high or low workload. Long term exposure to this unique environment produces a suite of physiological effects such as stress; vision, neurocognitive and anthropometric changes; circadian misalignment; fluid shifts, deconditioning; immune dysregulation; and altered nutritional requirements. Matrix diagraming was used to systematically identify, analyze and rate the many-to-many relationships between environmental characteristics and the suite of physiological effects. It was also to identify patterns in the relationships of common physiological effects to each other. Analyses of patterns or relationships in these diagrams help to identify issues that cut across multiple risks. Cross cutting issues benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that synthesizes concepts or data from two or more disciplines to identify and characterize risk factors or develop countermeasures relevant to multiple risks. They also help to illuminate possible problem areas that may arise when a countermeasure impacts risks other than those which it was developed to mitigate, or identify groupings of physiological changes that are likely to occur that may impact the overall risk posture.

Systematic testing of flood adaptation options in urban areas through simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2016-04-01

While models can quantify flood risk in great detail, the results are subject to a number of deep uncertainties. Climate dependent drivers such as sea level and rainfall intensities, population growth and economic development all have a strong influence on future flood risk, but future developments can only be estimated coarsely. In such a situation, robust decision making frameworks call for the systematic evaluation of mitigation measures against ensembles of potential futures. We have coupled the urban development software DAnCE4Water and the 1D-2D hydraulic simulation package MIKE FLOOD to create a framework that allows for such systematic evaluations, considering mitigation measures under a variety of climate futures and urban development scenarios. A wide spectrum of mitigation measures can be considered in this setup, ranging from structural measures such as modifications of the sewer network over local retention of rainwater and the modification of surface flow paths to policy measures such as restrictions on urban development in flood prone areas or master plans that encourage compact development. The setup was tested in a 300 ha residential catchment in Melbourne, Australia. The results clearly demonstrate the importance of considering a range of potential futures in the planning process. For example, local rainwater retention measures strongly reduce flood risk a scenario with moderate increase of rain intensities and moderate urban growth, but their performance strongly varies, yielding very little improvement in situations with pronounced climate change. The systematic testing of adaptation measures further allows for the identification of so-called adaptation tipping points, i.e. levels for the drivers of flood risk where the desired level of flood risk is exceeded despite the implementation of (a combination of) mitigation measures. Assuming a range of development rates for the drivers of flood risk, such tipping points can be translated into anticipated time spans over which a measure will be effective. While the new simulation setup is limited to situations where the planner is able to define realistic ranges for the development of drivers of flood risk, it certainly contributes to an improved consideration of deep uncertainties in the planning process. Future work will particularly focus on the application of the framework in a variety of urban development contexts.

12 CFR 217.145 - Recognition of credit risk mitigants for securitization exposures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... recognize the credit risk mitigant, but only as provided in this section. (b) Collateral. (1) Rules of...*) to original exposure amount (SE), Where: (i) SE* = max {0, [SE−C × (1−Hs−Hfx)]}; (ii) SE = the amount... type haircuts (Hs) in Table 1 to § 217.132 of this subpart; (ii) A Board-regulated institution must use...

12 CFR 3.145 - Recognition of credit risk mitigants for securitization exposures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Recognition of credit risk mitigants for..., but only as provided in this section. (b) Collateral. (1) Rules of recognition. A national bank or... adjusted exposure amount (SE*) to original exposure amount (SE), Where: (i) SE* = max {0, [SE−C × (1−Hs−Hfx...

Identification of human-carnivore conflict hotspots to prioritize mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Cushman, Samuel A; Elliot, Nicholas B

2017-12-01

Human-carnivore conflict is a primary driver of carnivore declines worldwide and resolving these conflicts is a conservation priority. However, resources to mitigate conflicts are limited and should be focused on areas of highest priority. We conducted 820 semistructured interviews with community members living within Kenya's Maasai Mara ecosystem. A multiscale analysis was used to determine the influence of husbandry and environmental factors on livestock depredation inside livestock enclosures (bomas). Areas with a high proportion of closed habitat and protected areas had the highest risk of depredation. Depredation was most likely to occur at weak bomas and at households where there were fewer dogs. We used the results to identify potential conflict hotspots by mapping the probability of livestock depredation across the landscape. 21.4% of the landscape was classified as high risk, and within these areas, 53.4% of the households that were interviewed had weak bomas. Synthesis and applications . With limited resources available to mitigate human-carnivore conflicts, it is imperative that areas are identified where livestock is most at risk of depredation. Focusing mitigation measures on high-risk areas may reduce conflict and lead to a decrease in retaliatory killings of predators.

Improving flood risk mapping in Italy: the FloodRisk open-source software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Craciun, Iulia; Sole, Aurelia; Ozunu, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Time and again, floods around the world illustrate the devastating impact they can have on societies. Furthermore, the expectation that the flood damages can increase over time with climate, land-use change and social growth in flood prone-areas has raised the public and other stakeholders' (governments, international organization, re-insurance companies and emergency responders) awareness for the need to manage risks in order to mitigate their causes and consequences. In this light, the choice of appropriate measures, the assessment of the costs and effects of such measures, and their prioritization are crucial for decision makers. As a result, a priori flood risk assessment has become a key part of flood management practices with the aim of minimizing the total costs related to the risk management cycle. In this context, The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the delineation of flood risk maps on the bases of most appropriate and advanced tools, with particular attention on limiting required economic efforts. The main aim of these risk maps is to provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs) by considering both costs and benefits of alternatives and results from consultation with all interested parties. In this context, this research project developed a free and open-source (FOSS) GIS software, called FloodRisk, to operatively support stakeholders in their compliance with the FRMPs. FloodRisk aims to facilitate the development of risk maps and the evaluation and management of current and future flood risk for multi-purpose applications. This new approach overcomes the limits of the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, which does not permit a suitable evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies, because the vulnerability component cannot be properly assessed. Moreover, FloodRisk is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. This FOSS approach can promotes transparency and accountability through a process of "guided discovery". Moreover, the immediacy with which information is presented by the qualitative flood risk map, can facilitate and speed up the process of knowledge acquisition. An application of FloodRisk model is showed on a pilot case in "Serio" Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been highlighted focusing on the utility of the results provided for the development of FRMPs. Although they still present limits which prevent the FloodRisk application without critically consider the peculiarities of the investigated area in terms of available knowledge on hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the proposed approach surely produces an increase in available knowledge of flood risk and its drivers. This further information cannot be neglected for defining risk mitigation objectives and strategies. Hence, considering the ongoing efforts in the improvement of data availability and quality, FloodRisk could be a suitable tool for the next revision of flood risk maps due by December 2019, supporting effectively Italian and EU practitioners in the delineation of FRMPs (and for flood risk management in general).

A new methodology to identify surface water bodies at risk by using pesticide monitoring data: The glyphosate case study in Lombardy Region (Italy).

PubMed

Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

2018-01-01

In the last decades, several monitoring programs were established as an effect of EU Directives addressing the quality of water resources (drinking water, groundwater and surface water). Plant Protection Products (PPPs) are an obvious target of monitoring activities, since they are directly released into the environment. One of the challenges in managing the risk of pesticides at the territorial scale is identifying the locations in water bodies needing implementation of risk mitigation measures. In this, the national pesticides monitoring plans could be very helpful. However, monitoring of pesticides is a challenging task because of the high number of registered pesticides, cost of analyses, and the periodicity of sampling related to pesticide application and use. Extensive high-quality data-sets are consequently often missing. More in general, the information that can be obtained from monitoring studies are frequently undervalued by risk managers. In this study, we propose a new methodology providing indications about the need to implement mitigation measures in stretches of surface water bodies on a territory by combining historical series of monitoring data and GIS. The methodology is articulated in two distinct phases: a) acquisition of monitoring data and setting-up of informative layers of georeferenced data (phase 1) and b) statistical and expert analysis for the identification of areas where implementation of limitation or mitigation measures are suggested (phase 2). Our methodology identifies potentially vulnerable water bodies, considering temporal contamination trends and relative risk levels at selected monitoring stations. A case study is presented considering glyphosate monitoring data in Lombardy Region (Northern of Italy) for the 2008-2014 period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biophysical risks to carbon sequestration and storage in Australian drylands.

PubMed

Nolan, Rachael H; Sinclair, Jennifer; Eldridge, David J; Ramp, Daniel

2018-02-15

Carbon abatement schemes that reduce land clearing and promote revegetation are now an important component of climate change policy globally. There is considerable potential for these schemes to operate in drylands which are spatially extensive. However, projects in these environments risk failure through unplanned release of stored carbon to the atmosphere. In this review, we identify factors that may adversely affect the success of vegetation-based carbon abatement projects in dryland ecosystems, evaluate their likelihood of occurrence, and estimate the potential consequences for carbon storage and sequestration. We also evaluate management strategies to reduce risks posed to these carbon abatement projects. Identified risks were primarily disturbances, including unplanned fire, drought, and grazing. Revegetation projects also risk recruitment failure, thereby failing to reach projected rates of sequestration. Many of these risks are dependent on rainfall, which is highly variable in drylands and susceptible to further variation under climate change. Resprouting vegetation is likely to be less vulnerable to disturbance and have faster recovery rates upon release from disturbance. We conclude that there is a strong impetus for identifying management strategies and risk reduction mechanisms for carbon abatement projects. Risk mitigation would be enhanced by effective co-ordination of mitigation strategies at scales larger than individual abatement project boundaries, and by implementing risk assessment throughout project planning and implementation stages. Reduction of risk is vital for maximising carbon sequestration of individual projects and for reducing barriers to the establishment of new projects entering the market. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ISEA2007 panel: Integration of better exposure characterizations into disaster preparedness for responders and the public

PubMed Central

Rodes, Charles E.; Pellizzari, Edo D.; Dellarco, Michael J.; Erickson, Mitchell D.; Vallero, Daniel A.; Reissman, Dori B.; Lioy, Paul J.; Lippmann, Morton; Burke, Thomas A.; Goldstein, Bernard D.

2014-01-01

An expert panel was convened in October 2007 at the International Society for Exposure Analysis Annual Meeting in Durham, NC, entitled “The Path Forward in Disaster Preparedness Since WTC—Exposure Characterization and Mitigation: Substantial Unfinished Business!” The panel prospectively discussed the critical exposure issues being overlooked during disaster responses and highlighted the needs for an optimal blending of exposure characterizations and hazard controls within disaster settings. The cases were made that effective and timely exposure characterizations must be applied during responses to any disaster, whether terrorist, manmade, or natural in origin. The consistent application of exposure sciences across acute and chronic disaster timelines will assure that the most effective strategies are applied to collect the needed information to guide risk characterization and management approaches. Exposure sciences must be effectively applied across all phases of a disaster (defined as rescue, reentry, recovery, and rehabitation—the four Rs) to appropriately characterize risks and guide risk-mitigation approaches. Failure to adequately characterize and control hazardous exposures increases the likelihood of excess morbidity and mortality. Advancing the infrastructure and the technologies to collect the right exposure information before, during, and immediately after disasters would advance our ability to define risks and protect responders and the public better. The panel provided conclusions, recommendations, and next steps toward effective and timely integration of better exposure science into disaster preparedness, including the need for a subsequent workshop to facilitate this integration. All panel presentations and a summary were uploaded to the ISES1 website (http://www.iseaweb.org/Disaster_Preparedness/index.php). PMID:18685563

ISEA2007 panel: integration of better exposure characterizations into disaster preparedness for responders and the public.

PubMed

Rodes, Charles E; Pellizzari, Edo D; Dellarco, Michael J; Erickson, Mitchell D; Vallero, Daniel A; Reissman, Dori B; Lioy, Paul J; Lippmann, Morton; Burke, Thomas A; Goldstein, Bernard D

2008-11-01

An expert panel was convened in October 2007 at the International Society for Exposure Analysis Annual Meeting in Durham, NC, entitled "The Path Forward in Disaster Preparedness Since WTC-Exposure Characterization and Mitigation: Substantial Unfinished Business!" The panel prospectively discussed the critical exposure issues being overlooked during disaster responses and highlighted the needs for an optimal blending of exposure characterizations and hazard controls within disaster settings. The cases were made that effective and timely exposure characterizations must be applied during responses to any disaster, whether terrorist, manmade, or natural in origin. The consistent application of exposure sciences across acute and chronic disaster timelines will assure that the most effective strategies are applied to collect the needed information to guide risk characterization and management approaches. Exposure sciences must be effectively applied across all phases of a disaster (defined as rescue, reentry, recovery, and rehabitation-the four Rs) to appropriately characterize risks and guide risk-mitigation approaches. Failure to adequately characterize and control hazardous exposures increases the likelihood of excess morbidity and mortality. Advancing the infrastructure and the technologies to collect the right exposure information before, during, and immediately after disasters would advance our ability to define risks and protect responders and the public better. The panel provided conclusions, recommendations, and next steps toward effective and timely integration of better exposure science into disaster preparedness, including the need for a subsequent workshop to facilitate this integration. All panel presentations and a summary were uploaded to the ISES(1) website (http://www.iseaweb.org/Disaster_Preparedness/index.php).

Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

2017-01-01

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

Best practices: Use of an administrative review committee at New Hampshire Hospital to mitigate risk with high-profile patients.

PubMed

de Nesnera, Alexander; Folks, David G

2010-07-01

An increasing number of patients manifesting violent and aggressive behaviors are treated at New Hampshire Hospital. Over the past ten years, the volume of referrals on an involuntary emergency petition has increased 70%. New Hampshire Hospital has successfully initiated its Administrative Review Committee, which confers a risk management process to mitigate potential liability for the hospital and treating clinicians for these high-risk patients. This best practice is viewed as helpful by clinicians and by the hospital's legal counsel. Hospitals treating similar high-risk patients may also benefit from developing a similar committee and risk management process.

Indoor Air Vapor Intrusion Mitigation Approaches

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Risk Management Research Laboratory has developed a technology transfer document regarding management and treatment of vapor intrusion into building structures. This document describes the range of mitigation technologies available.

Reducing Disaster Exacerbated Non-Communicable Diseases Through Public Health Infrastructure Resilience: Perspectives of Australian Disaster Service Providers

PubMed Central

Ryan, Benjamin J.; Franklin, Richard C.; Burkle Jr., Frederick M.; Aitken, Peter; Smith, Erin; Watt, Kerrianne; Leggat, Peter

2016-01-01

Background: The exposure of people and infrastructure to flood and storm related disasters across the world is increasing faster than vulnerability is decreasing. For people with non-communicable diseases this presents a significant risk as traditionally the focus of disaster management systems has been on immediate trauma and communicable diseases. This focus must now be expanded to include the management of non-communicable diseases because these conditions are generating the bulk of ill health, disability and premature death around the globe. When public health service infrastructure is destroyed or damaged access to treatment and care is severely jeopardised, resulting in an increased risk of non-communicable disease exacerbation or even death. This research proposes disaster responders, coordinators and government officials are vital assets to mitigate and eventually prevent these problems from being exacerbated during a disaster. This is due to their role in supporting the public health service infrastructure required to maximise treatment and care for people with non-communicable diseases. By focusing on the disaster cycle as a template, and on mitigation and prevention phases in particular, these actions and activities performed by disaster service responders will lead to overall improved preparedness, response, recovery and rehabilitation phases. Methods: Data were collected via 32 interviews and one focus group (eight participants) between March 2014 and August 2015 (total of 40 participants). The research was conducted in the State of Queensland, Australia, with disaster service providers. The analysis included the phases of: organizing data; data description; data classification; and interpretation. Results: The research found a relationship between the impact of a disaster on public health service infrastructure, and increased health risks for people with non-communicable diseases. Mitigation strategies were described for all phases of the disaster cycle impacting public health service infrastructure. Specific measures include: increasing the use of telemedicine; preplanning with medical suppliers; effective town planning; health professionals visiting evacuation centers; evacuation centers having power for medical equipment; hubs for treatment and care after a disaster; evacuation of high risk people prior to disaster; mapping people at risk by non-communicable disease; and a mechanism for sharing information between agencies. A common theme from the participants was that having accurate and easily accessible data on people with non-communicable diseases would allow disaster service providers to adequately prepare for and respond to a disaster. Conclusions: Disaster service providers can play a vital role in reducing the risk of disaster exacerbated non-communicable diseases through public health service infrastructure resilience. They are often employed in communities where disasters occur and are therefore best-placed to lead implementation of the mitigation strategies identified in this research. To sustainably implement the mitigation strategies they will need to become integrated into effective performance and monitoring of the disaster response and health sector during non-disaster periods. For this to occur, the strategies should be integrated into business and strategic plans. Achieving this will help implement the Sendia Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and, most importantly, help protect the health of people with non-communicable diseases before, during and after a disaster. PMID:28239511

Reducing Disaster Exacerbated Non-Communicable Diseases Through Public Health Infrastructure Resilience: Perspectives of Australian Disaster Service Providers.

PubMed

Ryan, Benjamin J; Franklin, Richard C; Burkle, Frederick M; Aitken, Peter; Smith, Erin; Watt, Kerrianne; Leggat, Peter

2016-12-21

The exposure of people and infrastructure to flood and storm related disasters across the world is increasing faster than vulnerability is decreasing. For people with non-communicable diseases this presents a significant risk as traditionally the focus of disaster management systems has been on immediate trauma and communicable diseases. This focus must now be expanded to include the management of non-communicable diseases because these conditions are generating the bulk of ill health, disability and premature death around the globe. When public health service infrastructure is destroyed or damaged access to treatment and care is severely jeopardised, resulting in an increased risk of non-communicable disease exacerbation or even death. This research proposes disaster responders, coordinators and government officials are vital assets to mitigate and eventually prevent these problems from being exacerbated during a disaster. This is due to their role in supporting the public health service infrastructure required to maximise treatment and care for people with non-communicable diseases. By focusing on the disaster cycle as a template, and on mitigation and prevention phases in particular, these actions and activities performed by disaster service responders will lead to overall improved preparedness, response, recovery and rehabilitation phases. Data were collected via 32 interviews and one focus group (eight participants) between March 2014 and August 2015 (total of 40 participants). The research was conducted in the State of Queensland, Australia, with disaster service providers. The analysis included the phases of: organizing data; data description; data classification; and interpretation. The research found a relationship between the impact of a disaster on public health service infrastructure, and increased health risks for people with non-communicable diseases. Mitigation strategies were described for all phases of the disaster cycle impacting public health service infrastructure. Specific measures include: increasing the use of telemedicine; preplanning with medical suppliers; effective town planning; health professionals visiting evacuation centers; evacuation centers having power for medical equipment; hubs for treatment and care after a disaster; evacuation of high risk people prior to disaster; mapping people at risk by non-communicable disease; and a mechanism for sharing information between agencies. A common theme from the participants was that having accurate and easily accessible data on people with non-communicable diseases would allow disaster service providers to adequately prepare for and respond to a disaster. Disaster service providers can play a vital role in reducing the risk of disaster exacerbated non-communicable diseases through public health service infrastructure resilience. They are often employed in communities where disasters occur and are therefore best-placed to lead implementation of the mitigation strategies identified in this research. To sustainably implement the mitigation strategies they will need to become integrated into effective performance and monitoring of the disaster response and health sector during non-disaster periods. For this to occur, the strategies should be integrated into business and strategic plans. Achieving this will help implement the Sendia Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and, most importantly, help protect the health of people with non-communicable diseases before, during and after a disaster.

Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarlo, Antonella

2008-07-01

The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a "technical" evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three "components" of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure). Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications. In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues: - The social awareness of earthquake; - The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the "social awareness of earthquake", characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy: - The central role of the risk as a social production, - The central role of the local community consent, - The central role of the local community capability to plan Therefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies. As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a consequence, the opportunity to promote an approach to the theme of mitigation policies realized through strategic principles and systemic logics able to shift the problem from the building to the town. The critical aspects of this theme are tied to three main issues: - The sharing of the way of interpreting town planning, - The integration of multiple objectives in one intervention tool, - The measures which can be adopted for an effective prevention policy. The above-mentioned elements have inspired these researches experimented on Calabrian towns. In particular, in this paper the experience carried out on Reggio Calabria is proposed. Its cultural roots derive from the principles and criteria experimented in small Calabrian towns, but it modifies them according to the complexity of the urban settlement, introducing also some experimental concepts and methodological approaches.

Calculating and Mitigating the Risk of a Cut Glove to a Space Walking Astronaut

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

2013-01-01

One of the high risk operations on the International Space Station (ISS) is conducting a space walk, or an Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA). Threats to the space walking crew include airlock failures, space suit failures, and strikes from micro ]meteoroids and orbital debris (MM/OD). There are risks of becoming untethered from the space station, being pinched between the robotic arm and a piece of equipment, tearing your suit on a sharp edge, and other human errors that can be catastrophic. For decades NASA identified and tried to control sharp edges on external structure and equipment by design; however a new and unexpected source of sharp edges has since become apparent. Until recently, one of the underappreciated environmental risks was damage to EVA gloves during a spacewalk. The ISS has some elements which have been flying in the environment of space for over 14 years. It has and continues to be bombarded with MM/OD strikes that have created small, sharp craters all over the structure, including the dedicated EVA handrails and surrounding structure. These craters are capable of cutting through several layers of the EVA gloves. Starting in 2006, five EVA crewmembers reported cuts in their gloves so large they rendered the gloves unusable and in some cases cut the spacewalk short for the safety of the crew. This new hazard took engineers and managers by surprise. NASA has set out to mitigate this risk to safety and operations by redesigning the spacesuit gloves to be more resilient and designing a clamp to isolate MM/OD strikes on handrails, and is considering the necessity of an additional tool to repair strikes on non ]handrail surfaces (such as a file). This paper will address how the ISS Risk Team quantified an estimate of the MM/OD damage to the ISS, and the resulting likelihood of sustaining a cut glove in order to measure the effectiveness of the solutions being investigated to mitigate this risk to the mission and crew.

Assessment of Literature Related to Combustion Appliance Venting Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rapp, V. H.; Less, B. D.; Singer, B. C.

In many residential building retrofit programs, air tightening to increase energy efficiency is often constrained by safety concerns with naturally vented combustion appliances. Tighter residential buildings more readily depressurize when exhaust equipment is operated, making combustion appliances more prone to backdraft or spill combustion exhaust into the living space. Several measures, such as installation guidelines, vent sizing codes, and combustion safety diagnostics, are in place with the intent to prevent backdrafting and combustion spillage, but the diagnostics conflict and the risk mitigation objective is inconsistent. This literature review summarizes the metrics and diagnostics used to assess combustion safety, documents theirmore » technical basis, and investigates their risk mitigations. It compiles information from the following: codes for combustion appliance venting and installation; standards and guidelines for combustion safety diagnostics; research evaluating combustion safety diagnostics; research investigating wind effects on building depressurization and venting; and software for simulating vent system performance.« less

Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration.

PubMed

Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A; Lukenbach, Maxwell C; Waddington, James M

2016-06-27

Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha(-1) emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change.

Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A.; Lukenbach, Maxwell C.; Waddington, James M.

2016-06-01

Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha-1 emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change.

Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration

PubMed Central

Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A.; Lukenbach, Maxwell C.; Waddington, James M.

2016-01-01

Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha−1 emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change. PMID:27346604

Communicating radon risk effectively: a mid-course evaluation. Interim report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, V.K.; Desvousges, W.H.; Fisher, A.

A panel of 2300 homeowners was divided into subgroups to test the effectiveness of six alternative ways of explaining the risk from naturally occurring radon gas. The research design focused on two dimensions: qualitative vs. quantitative and directive vs. evaluative. These characteristics led to 4 experimental booklets, which were compared with EPA's Citizen's Guide and a one-page fact sheet. The evaluation examined how much people learned about radon; whether they could form risk perceptions consistent with their home's measured radon level; and whether they felt they had enough information to make a decision about mitigation. The fact sheet did notmore » perform well on any of these evaluation criteria. None of the five booklets clearly was best for all 3 evaluation criteria; the report discusses the implications for designing an effective radon-risk communication program.« less

NASA's human system risk management approach and its applicability to commercial spaceflight.

PubMed

Law, Jennifer; Mathers, Charles H; Fondy, Susan R E; Vanderploeg, James M; Kerstman, Eric L

2013-01-01

As planning continues for commercial spaceflight, attention is turned to NASA to assess whether its human system risk management approach can be applied to mitigate the risks associated with commercial suborbital and orbital flights. NASA uses a variety of methods to assess the risks to the human system based on their likelihood and consequences. In this article, we review these methods and categorize the risks in the system as "definite," "possible," or "least" concern for commercial spaceflight. As with career astronauts, these risks will be primarily mitigated by screening and environmental control. Despite its focus on long-duration exploration missions, NASA's human system risk management approach can serve as a preliminary knowledge base to help medical planners prepare for commercial spaceflights.

Flood loss assessment in Can Tho City, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, T. C.; Kreibich, H.

2012-04-01

Floods are recurring events in the Lower Mekong Basin resulting in loss of life and property, causing damage to agriculture and rural infrastructure, and disrupting social and economic activities. Flood management and mitigation has become a priority issue at the national and regional levels. Besides, it is expected that large areas of the Mekong delta, the Red River delta and the central coast will be flooded by sea-level rise due to climate change. Can Tho City is ranked under the five most flood-tide-influenced cities of Vietnam. It is the biggest city in the Mekong delta and it is located near the Hau river. Like other region of the Mekong delta, Can Tho suffers due to floods from upstream and flood tides from the sea. In the flood season large rural areas of the city are flooded, particularly during tidal days. Flood risk management policy includes preparative measures for living with floods and to minimise the damage caused by floods as well as to take advantage of floods for sustainable development. An intensive literature review, including administrative reports as well as expert interviews have been undertaken to gain more insight into flood characteristics, their consequences and risk mitigation. Therefore, flood damaging processes and trends have been reviewed for Can Tho City and the Mekong Basin in Vietnam. Additionally, suitable flood damage estimation methodologies have been collected as important input for flood risk analyses. On this basis it has been investigated which flood risk mitigation and management strategies promise to be effective in Can Tho City, Vietnam.

Health care workers and researchers traveling to developing-world clinical settings: disease transmission risk and mitigation.

PubMed

Kortepeter, Mark G; Seaworth, Barbara J; Tasker, Sybil A; Burgess, Timothy H; Coldren, Rodney L; Aronson, Naomi E

2010-12-01

With the recent emphasis on funding and training opportunities for global health and humanitarian aid and the increased interest in the field, many health care workers and medical researchers are traveling from resource-replete to resource-limited settings. This type of travel brings unique disease risks not routinely considered for the business or vacationing traveler. This review provides practical advice for this special population of travelers, targeted to specific health care-related risks (needlestick, hemorrhagic fever viruses, severe viral respiratory disease, and tuberculosis), with suggestions for risk mitigation.

What Are Teachers' Opinions about Including Topics of Natural Events and Their Risks in Primary Curriculum in Kocaeli (Turkey)?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bulus Kirikkaya, Esma; Imali, Beyza

2013-01-01

Community awareness must be increased for communities to play an effective role in the mitigation of disaster damage. Education is the most effective way to accomplish this. It is important for people to know that even though they cannot intervene or prevent such events, they can take precautionary measures to reduce the damage caused by…

Analyzing costs of space debris mitigation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiedemann, C.; Krag, H.; Bendisch, J.; Sdunnus, H.

The steadily increasing number of space objects poses a considerable hazard to all kinds of spacecraft. To reduce the risks to future space missions different debris mitigation measures and spacecraft protection techniques have been investigated during the last years. However, the economic efficiency has not been considered yet in this context. This economical background is not always clear to satellite operators and the space industry. Current studies have the objective to evaluate the mission costs due to space debris in a business as usual (no mitigation) scenario compared to the missions costs considering debris mitigation. The aim i an estimation of thes time until the investment in debris mitigation will lead to an effective reduction of mission costs. This paper presents the results of investigations on the key problems of cost estimation for spacecraft and the influence of debris mitigation and shielding on cost. The shielding of a satellite can be an effective method to protect the spacecraft against debris impact. Mitigation strategies like the reduction of orbital lifetime and de- or re-orbit of non-operational satellites are methods to control the space debris environment. These methods result in an increase of costs. In a first step the overall costs of different types of unmanned satellites are analyzed. The key problem is, that it is not possible to provide a simple cost model that can be applied to all types of satellites. Unmanned spacecraft differ very much in mission, complexity of design, payload and operational lifetime. It is important to classify relevant cost parameters and investigate their influence on the respective mission. The theory of empirical cost estimation and existing cost models are discussed. A selected cost model is simplified and generalized for an application on all operational satellites. In a next step the influence of space debris on cost is treated, if the implementation of mitigation strategies is considered.

The Certification Framework: Risk Assessment for Safety and Effectiveness of Geologic Carbon Sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldenburg, C. M.; Nicot, J.; Bryant, S. L.

2008-12-01

Motivated by the dual objectives of (1) encouraging geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) as one of several strategies urgently needed to reduce CO2 emissions, and (2) protecting the environment from unintended CO2 injection-related impacts, we have developed a simple and transparent framework for certifying GCS safety and effectiveness at individual sites. The approach we developed, called the Certification Framework (CF), is proposed as a standard way for project proponents, regulators, and the public to analyze and understand risks and uncertainties of GCS. In the CF, we relate effective trapping to CO2 leakage risk, where we use the standard definition of risk involving the two factors (1) probability of a particular leakage scenario, and (2) impact of that leakage scenario. In short, if the CO2 leakage risk as calculated by the CF is below threshold values for the life of the project, then effective trapping is predicted and the site can be certified. The concept of effective trapping is more general than traditional "no migration" approaches to underground injection regulation. We achieve simplicity in the CF by using (1) wells and faults as the potential leakage pathways, (2) five compartments to represent where impacts can occur (underground sources of drinking water, hydrocarbon and mineral resources, near-surface environment, health and safety, and emission credits and atmosphere), (3) modeled CO2 fluxes and concentrations as proxies for impact to compartments, (4) broad ranges of storage formation properties to generate a catalog of simulated CO2 plumes, and (5) probabilities of intersection of the CO2 plume with the conduits and compartments. In a case study application of the CF for a saline formation GCS site in the Texas Gulf Coast, analysis with the CF suggested the overall leakage risk to be very small, with the largest contribution coming from risk to the near-surface environment due to potential leakage up abandoned wells, depending on the effective permeability assumed for the wells. This result shows that risk could be drastically reduced by locating and monitoring abandoned wells, along with well or leakage mitigation if necessary. By this means, effective trapping can be predicted with greater certainty because both factors of risk (probability of well leakage, and impact of well leakage) can be reduced significantly through surface monitoring and mitigation, if needed.

Evaluation and Mitigation of the Risk Due to Climate Change at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2016-12-01

The state of South Carolina, home to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), has been identified as facing an `above average' risk due to extreme heat, and the threat due to wildfire is expected to nearly double by 2050. To comply with DOE requirements that each of its sites prepares for climate change, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is involved in an ongoing process to evaluate the site vulnerability and establish policies to mitigate those effects. This requires close cooperation between the managers of various site facilities and on-site climate researchers. The Atmospheric Technologies Group at SRNL currently provides short-term weather forecasts to support outdoor activities on site, but is also now working with site decision-makers to achieve DOE's goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We will discuss the results of our climate vulnerability assessment, which includes the effects of climate change on the energy requirements for mission critical infrastructure, the health, safety and productivity of the outdoor workforce, the danger of fire in the SRS forest, and the levels of surface water impoundments. (The latter of which must be maintained to avoid the release of radioactive contaminants sequestered beneath them). For each of these, existing climate change projections were carefully studied and `translated' into numerical indices relevant to facility personnel at SRS, along with a vulnerability rating (also based on conversations with site workers) to estimate the most endangered `assets'. We will also explain the process we have developed to facilitate effective communication between researchers and managers - involving them both in the development of the climate vulnerability assessment and the next steps toward planning, resource allocation, actions to mitigate rising costs, and safety considerations as well as helping the site remain sustainable throughout the future of its missions.

Poster — Thur Eve — 41: Considerations for Patients with Permanently Implant Radioactive Sources Requiring Unrelated Surgery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basran, P. S; Beckham, WA; Baxter, P

Permanent implant of sealed radioactive sources is an effective technique for treating cancer. Typically, the radioactive sources are implanted in and near the disease, depositing dose locally over several months. There may be instances where these patients must undergo unrelated surgical procedures when the radioactive material remains active enough to pose risks. This work explores these risks, discusses strategies to mitigate those risks, and describes a case study for a permanent I-125 prostate brachytherapy implant patient who developed colo-rectal cancer and required surgery 6 months after brachytherapy. The first consideration is identifying the risk from unwarranted radiation to the patientmore » and staff before, during, and after the surgical procedure. The second is identifying the risk the surgical procedure may have on the efficacy of the brachytherapy implant. Finally, there are considerations for controlling for radioactive substances from a regulatory perspective. After these risks are defined, strategies to mitigate those risks are considered. These strategies may include applying the concepts of ALARA, the use of protective equipment and developing a best practice strategy with the operating room team. We summarize this experience with some guidelines: If the surgical procedure is near (ex: 5 cm) of the implant; and, the surgical intervention may dislodge radioisotopes enough to compromise treatment or introduces radiation safety risks; and, the radioisotope has not sufficiently decayed to background levels; and, the surgery cannot be postponed, then a detailed analysis of risk is advised.« less

Does Lactation Mitigate Triple Negative/Basal Breast Cancer Progression?

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

201 – 31 August 201 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER DOES LACTATION MITIGATE TRIPLE NEGATIVE /BASAL BREAST CANCER PROGRESSION? 5b...25 1 INTRODUCTION Young African American women have an increased risk of developing aggressive forms of breast cancer (i.e... triple negative /basal-like) than young non-Hispanic white women. Recent epidemiological data show increased risk of basal-like breast cancer with

The Material Supply Adjustment Process in RAMF-SM, Step 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

contain. The Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework for Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) is a suite of mathematical models and databases that has been...Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework for Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) is a suite of mathematical models and databases used to support the...and computes material shortfalls.1 Several mathematical models and dozens of databases, encompassing thousands of data items, support the

12 CFR 324.145 - Recognition of credit risk mitigants for securitization exposures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... recognize the credit risk mitigant, but only as provided in this section. (b) Collateral—(1) Rules of... original exposure amount (SE), where: (i) SE* equals max {0, [SE − C × (1− Hs − Hfx)]}; (ii) SE equals the... must use the collateral type haircuts (Hs) in Table 1 to § 324.132 of this subpart; (ii) An FDIC...

Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

Modelling the impacts of agricultural management practices on river water quality in Eastern England.

PubMed

Taylor, Sam D; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin M

2016-09-15

Agricultural diffuse water pollution remains a notable global pressure on water quality, posing risks to aquatic ecosystems, human health and water resources and as a result legislation has been introduced in many parts of the world to protect water bodies. Due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness, water quality models have been increasingly applied to catchments as Decision Support Tools (DSTs) to identify mitigation options that can be introduced to reduce agricultural diffuse water pollution and improve water quality. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the River Wensum catchment in eastern England with the aim of quantifying the long-term impacts of potential changes to agricultural management practices on river water quality. Calibration and validation were successfully performed at a daily time-step against observations of discharge, nitrate and total phosphorus obtained from high-frequency water quality monitoring within the Blackwater sub-catchment, covering an area of 19.6 km(2). A variety of mitigation options were identified and modelled, both singly and in combination, and their long-term effects on nitrate and total phosphorus losses were quantified together with the 95% uncertainty range of model predictions. Results showed that introducing a red clover cover crop to the crop rotation scheme applied within the catchment reduced nitrate losses by 19.6%. Buffer strips of 2 m and 6 m width represented the most effective options to reduce total phosphorus losses, achieving reductions of 12.2% and 16.9%, respectively. This is one of the first studies to quantify the impacts of agricultural mitigation options on long-term water quality for nitrate and total phosphorus at a daily resolution, in addition to providing an estimate of the uncertainties of those impacts. The results highlighted the need to consider multiple pollutants, the degree of uncertainty associated with model predictions and the risk of unintended pollutant impacts when evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation options, and showed that high-frequency water quality datasets can be applied to robustly calibrate water quality models, creating DSTs that are more effective and reliable. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Seabird bycatch mitigation trials in artisanal demersal longliners of the Western Mediterranean.

PubMed

Cortés, Verónica; González-Solís, Jacob

2018-01-01

High numbers of seabirds are killed annually worldwide in longline fisheries. In the Mediterranean, this mortality is seriously affecting the viability of seabird populations, in particular of the three endemic shearwaters. Even so, there is currently no specific seabird mitigation requirements for the longline fleet operating in this area. From 2013 to 2014, we assessed the efficiency and practical applicability of four mitigation measures on artisanal demersal longliners targeting European hake (Merluccius merluccius) in the western Mediterranean: night setting, tori line, weighted lines and artificial baits. We performed fifty-two pairs of experimental (with the tested mitigation measure) and control settings (without any measure), and compared their effects on seabird interactions and fish catches. In addition, we estimated the longline sink rates and the seabird access area to baited hooks in different longline configurations. Night setting reduced bycatch risk without affecting target and non-commercial fish catches. The tori line may have reduced the bycatch risk by displacing bait attacks beyond the end of the line, but at this distance shearwaters could still access to the baits and the streamers did not deter birds under calm wind conditions. Weighted lines increased sink rate, but it resulted in only a minor reduction of the seabird access window to baited hooks and led to some operational problems during the setting. Artificial baits substantially reduced commercial catches. Moreover, the seabird access to the baited hooks was influenced by the longline configuration, the setting speed and the relative position to the floats and weights. So far, night setting stands out as the best mitigation measure for reducing bycatch levels without compromising target catches in demersal longliners. Ideally, these results should be confirmed in longliners targeting species other than European hake.

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Emerging Public Health Challenges of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Related to Changes in the Pathogen, the Population, and the Environment.

PubMed

Karmali, Mohamed A

2017-02-01

Emerging public health challenges of Shiga toxin (stx)-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) include the occurrence of more frequent or severe disease and risk factors shifts associated with changes, often interconnected, in the pathogen, the population, and the environment. In 3 outbreaks with heightened severity attributed to enhanced pathogen virulence, including the acquisition of an stx2 phage in 1 outbreak, population and environmental factors likely contributed significantly to disease outcomes. Evolving population risk factors that are associated with more severe disease include consumption of fresh produce, contact with STEC-contaminated environments, demographics, socioeconomic status, and immunity. Risks of increasing STEC environmental pollution are related to continued intensification of agriculture and super-shedder cattle. Mitigation strategies include surveillance and research on emerging STEC, development of effective communications and public education strategies, and improved policies and interventions to mitigate risks, including those related to the contamination of produce and the environment, using a "One Health" approach. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Kidney Stones After Bariatric Surgery: Risk Assessment and Mitigation.

PubMed

Espino-Grosso, Pedro Mario; Canales, Benjamin Kirk

2017-03-01

Obesity is rampant across the spectrum of age, gender, and race in the Unites States. Paralleling this epidemic, kidney stone prevalence is also rising, affecting nearly 1 in 11 individuals. Bariatric surgical procedures, such as Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) and sleeve gastrectomy (SG), are the most effective weight loss options for morbidly obese or severely obese individuals with comorbidities. A number of studies have linked kidney stone development to bariatric surgical history, particularly RYGB, which portends up to a threefold increase in calcium oxalate stone risk compared with age-matched, obese controls. Stone development after malabsorptive (RYGB) and restrictive (SG) bariatric procedures are driven primarily by alterations in 24-h urine profiles, such as increased urinary oxalate, decreased urine volume, and reduced urinary citrate levels-all of which have been linked to increased kidney stone risk. What clinical recommendations, if any, can be given to reduce kidney stone risk in bariatric kidney stone patients? This review provides not only updated stone incidence and 24-h urine data in this population, but also reassurance-the metabolic alterations that result from bariatric surgery can be successfully mitigated by increased provider awareness, patient education, and a combination of dietary and pharmacological adjustments.

Shared responsibility for managing fatigue: Hearing the pilots

PubMed Central

O’Keeffe, Karyn M.; Signal, T. Leigh; Gander, Philippa H.

2018-01-01

In commercial aviation, fatigue is defined as a physiological state of reduced mental or physical performance capability resulting from sleep loss, extended wakefulness, circadian phase, and/or workload. The International Civil Aviation Organisation mandates that responsibility for fatigue risk management is shared between airline management, pilots, and support staff. However, to date, the majority of research relating to fatigue mitigations in long range operations has focused on the mitigations required or recommended by regulators and operators. Little research attention has been paid to the views or operational experience of the pilots who use these (or other) mitigations. This study focused on pilots’ views and experiences of in-flight sleep as the primary fatigue mitigation on long range flights. It also sought information about other fatigue mitigation strategies they use. Thematic analysis was used to explore written comments from diary and survey data collected during long range and ultra-long range trips (N = 291 pilots on three different aircraft types, 17 different out-and-back trips, and four airlines based on three continents). The findings indicate that the recommended fatigue mitigation strategies on long-haul flights (particularly in-flight sleep) are effective and well-utilised, consistent with quantitative findings from the same trips. Importantly however, the analyses also highlight areas that require further investigation, including flight preparation strategies in relation to the uncertainty of in-flight break allocation. There were two strategies for sleep prior to a flight: maximising sleep if pilots were expecting later breaks in the flight; or minimising sleep if they were expecting breaks earlier or at unfavourable times in the circadian cycle. They also provide a broader view of the factors that affect the amount and quality of pilots’ in-flight sleep, about which evidence has previously been largely anecdotal. The study underscores the value of including the views and experience of pilots in fatigue risk management. PMID:29782533

Managing the Financial Risks of Water Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Characklis, Greg; Foster, Ben; Kern, Jordan; Meyer, Eliot; Zeff, Harrison

2015-04-01

Environmental uncertainty poses a growing number of financial risks to society, with droughts, floods, extreme temperatures and violent storms imposing costs that approach 500 billion per year. While structural forms of mitigation (i.e. levees, dams) will certainly play a role in limiting financial impacts, these are large investments whose full value is only rarely realized. Furthermore, the value of such long-lived measures becomes increasingly uncertain in a changing climate, raising the issue of whether they will be effective 20-30 years hence. Financial instruments, such as index insurance, can provide increased flexibility by providing compensation for losses only when they occur, and limited contract periods allow terms to be periodically rewritten in response to changing conditions. Financial instruments can also be effectively combined with other economic tools and infrastructure to create integrated solutions in which infrastructure mitigates losses from moderate events, while financial products compensate for more rare, but extreme, events. There is a long history of environmentally-related insurance and hedging instruments, but to date the actuarial analyses that underlie contract structure and pricing have been based on straightforward observations, such as cumulative rainfall. More recently, simple correlations between two time series have been used to develop index-based contracts. Links between temperature and electricity demand, for example, provide a basis for contracts that are used to limit the financial exposure of power generators to low revenues during unseasonably warm winters or cool summers. Unfortunately, few environmental risks can be so quickly and easily linked to a financial impact. However, with a more advanced understanding of the environmental systems that give rise to financial losses, opportunities exist to develop innovative contracts for a range of new applications. Recent research describes the characterization and mitigation of financial losses experienced by such entities as water utilities, hydropower producers and inland shipping firms as a result of water scarcity, all of which suggest a growing role for financial instruments in managing environmental risk.

Public willingness to pay for CO2 mitigation and the determinants under climate change: a case study of Suzhou, China.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Zou, Liping; Lin, Tiansheng; Wu, Ying; Wang, Haikun

2014-12-15

This study explored the factors that influence respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for CO2 mitigation under climate change. A questionnaire survey combined with contingent valuation and psychometric paradigm methods were conducted in the city of Suzhou, Jiangsu Province in China. Respondents' traditional demographic attributes, risk perception of greenhouse gas (GHG), and attitude toward the government's risk management practices were established using a Tobit model to analyze the determinants. The results showed that about 55% of the respondents refused to pay for CO2 mitigation, respondent's WTP increased with increasing CO2 mitigation percentage. Important factors influencing WTP include people's feeling of dread of GHGs, confidence in policy, the timeliness of governmental information disclosure, age, education and income level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mitigation gambles: uncertainty, urgency and the last gamble possible

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shue, Henry

2018-05-01

A rejection by current generations of more ambitious mitigation of carbon emissions inflicts on future generations inherently objectionable risks about which they have no choice. Any gains through savings from less ambitious mitigation, which are relatively minor, would accrue to current generations, and all losses, which are relatively major, would fall on future generations. This mitigation gamble is especially unjustifiable because it imposes a risk of unlimited losses until carbon emissions cease. Ultimate physical collapses remain possible. Much more ominous is prior social collapse from political struggles over conflicting responses to threatened physical collapse. The two most plausible objections to the thesis that less ambitious mitigation is unjustifiable rely, respectively, on the claim that negative emissions will allow a later recovery from a temporary overshoot in emissions and on the claim that ambitious mitigation is incompatible with poverty alleviation that depends on inexpensive fossil fuels. Neither objection stands up. Reliance on negative emissions later instead of ambitious mitigation now permits the passing of tipping points for irreversible change meanwhile, and non-carbon energy is rapidly becoming price competitive in developing countries like India that are committed to poverty alleviation. This article is part of the themed issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottsmann, J.

2012-04-01

Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short-term probabilistic hazard forecasting tools the scientific knowledge base will provide the crucial parameters for a comprehensive and best-practice approach to 1) risk mitigation, 2) communication, 3) decision-making and 4) crisis management during unrest periods. The VUELCO project consortium efforts will generate guidance in the definition and implementation of strategic options for effective risk mitigation, management and governance during unrest episodes. Such a mechanistic platform of understanding, impacting on the synergy of scientists, policy-makers, civil protection authorities, decision-makers, and the public, will place volcanic unrest management on a new basis, with European expertise at its peak. The project is financed by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment".

46 CFR 182.730 - Nonferrous metallic piping materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... protect piping systems using aluminum alloys in high risk fire areas due to the low melting point of aluminum alloys; (2) Provisions must be made to prevent or mitigate the effect of galvanic corrosion due to... compound must be used in making up threaded joints in aluminum pipe to prevent seizing. Pipe in the...

Green infrastructure and urban sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagishima, Aya

2018-02-01

Temperature increase in urban areas due to the urban heat island as well as the global climate change inevitably raises the peak load supply for space cooling as well as the risk of heat-related illness in hot climate. This paper provides the comprehensive review of the thermal mitigation effect of urban vegetation based on the field observations.

Northwest regional climate hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This assessment draws from a large bank of information developed by scientists and extension specialists in the Northwest to describe where we need to focus when dealing with climate risks to working landscapes. The changing climate has many secondary effects, such as irrigation water loss, increase...

Understanding the side effects of classical biological control

Treesearch

Dean Pearson

2008-01-01

Classical biological control involves the use of imported natural enemies to suppress or control populations of the target pest species below an economically or ecologically relevant threshold. Biological control is a useful tool for mitigating the impacts of exotic invasive plants; however, its application is not without risk (see Carruthers and D’Antonio...

A Strengths-Based Group Program on Self-Harm: A Feasibility Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McAllister, Margaret; Hasking, Penelope; Estefan, Andrew; McClenaghan, Kerry; Lowe, John

2010-01-01

Every day in Queensland, Australia, student services within schools are responding to children who have deliberately self-injured. Although school nurses are in a prime position to effectively intervene, mitigate risk, and promote healthy self-caring behaviors, no programs that focus specifically on self-harm currently exist. This feasibility…

Approaches to Mitigate the Unwanted Immunogenicity of Therapeutic Proteins during Drug Development.

PubMed

Salazar-Fontana, Laura I; Desai, Dharmesh D; Khan, Tarik A; Pillutla, Renuka C; Prior, Sandra; Ramakrishnan, Radha; Schneider, Jennifer; Joseph, Alexandra

2017-03-01

All biotherapeutics have the potential to induce an immune response. This immunological response is complex and, in addition to antibody formation, involves T cell activation and innate immune responses that could contribute to adverse effects. Integrated immunogenicity data analysis is crucial to understanding the possible clinical consequences of anti-drug antibody (ADA) responses. Because patient- and product-related factors can influence the immunogenicity of a therapeutic protein, a risk-based approach is recommended and followed by most drug developers to provide insight over the potential harm of unwanted ADA responses. This paper examines mitigation strategies currently implemented and novel under investigation approaches used by drug developers. The review describes immunomodulatory regimens used in the clinic to mitigate deleterious ADA responses to replacement therapies for deficiency syndromes, such as hemophilia A and B, and high risk classical infantile Pompe patients (e.g., cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, rituximab); novel in silico and in vitro prediction tools used to select candidates based on their immunogenicity potential (e.g., anti-CD52 antibody primary sequence and IFN beta-1a formulation); in vitro generation of tolerogenic antigen-presenting cells (APCs) to reduce ADA responses to factor VIII and IX in murine models of hemophilia; and selection of novel delivery systems to reduce in vivo ADA responses to highly immunogenic biotherapeutics (e.g., asparaginase). We conclude that mitigation strategies should be considered early in development for biotherapeutics based on our knowledge of existing clinical data for biotherapeutics and the immune response involved in the generation of these ADAs.

Risk assessment of underpass infrastructure project based on IS0 31000 and ISO 21500 using fishbone diagram and RFMEA (project risk failure mode and effects analysis) method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purwanggono, Bambang; Margarette, Anastasia

2017-12-01

Completion time of highway construction is very meaningful for smooth transportation, moreover expected number of ownership motor vehicle will increase each year. Therefore, this study was conducted with to analyze the constraints that contained in an infrastructure development project. This research was conducted on Jatingaleh Underpass Project, Semarang. This research was carried out while the project is running, on the implementation, this project is experiencing delays. This research is done to find out what are the constraints that occur in execution of a road infrastructure project, in particular that causes delays. The method that used to find the root cause is fishbone diagram to obtain a possible means of mitigation. Coupled with the RFMEA method used to determine the critical risks that must be addressed immediately on road infrastructure project. The result of data tabulation in this study indicates that the most possible mitigation tool to make a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) recommendations to disrupt utilities that interfere project implementation. Process of risk assessment has been carried out systematically based on ISO 31000:2009 on risk management and for determination of delayed variables, the requirements of process groups according to ISO 21500:2013 on project management were used.

Distributed Trajectory Flexibility Preservation for Traffic Complexity Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; Wing, David; Delahaye, Daniel

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors propose the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics based on Lyapunov exponents and traffic proximity.

Managing Disease Risks from Trade: Strategic Behavior with Many Choices and Price Effects.

PubMed

Chitchumnong, Piyayut; Horan, Richard D

2018-03-16

An individual's infectious disease risks, and hence the individual's incentives for risk mitigation, may be influenced by others' risk management choices. If so, then there will be strategic interactions among individuals, whereby each makes his or her own risk management decisions based, at least in part, on the expected decisions of others. Prior work has shown that multiple equilibria could arise in this setting, with one equilibrium being a coordination failure in which individuals make too few investments in protection. However, these results are largely based on simplified models involving a single management choice and fixed prices that may influence risk management incentives. Relaxing these assumptions, we find strategic interactions influence, and are influenced by, choices involving multiple management options and market price effects. In particular, we find these features can reduce or eliminate concerns about multiple equilibria and coordination failure. This has important policy implications relative to simpler models.

Current and future strategies for the nutritional management of cardiometabolic complications of androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Turner, Lauren; Poole, Karen; Faithfull, Sara; Griffin, Bruce A

2017-12-01

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is used widely as part of a combined modality for the treatment of prostate cancer. However, ADT has also been associated with the development of cardiometabolic complications that can increase mortality from cardiovascular events. There is emerging evidence to suggest that ADT-related cardiometabolic risk can be mitigated by diet and lifestyle modification. While the clinical focus for a nutritional approach for achieving this effect is unclear, it may depend upon the timely assessment and targeting of dietary changes to the specific risk phenotype of the patient. The present review aims to address the metabolic origins of ADT-related cardiometabolic risk, existing evidence for the effects of dietary intervention in modifying this risk, and the priorities for future dietary strategies.

Modern Approaches to Wildfire Mitigation by Air and by Ground: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffin, J.; Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.; Wuerzer, T.; Lawless, B.; McCoy, J.

2013-12-01

In 2012, 1.7 million acres of land burned in Idaho--more than any other state. Boise, Idaho, is situated at the base of the Boise Foothills; this physiographic setting places the area at risk of not only fires along on the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), but also at risk for post-fire floods and debris flows in the lower lying neighborhoods adjacent to steep hillslopes. In 1959 and 1994, fires and post-fire debris flows devastated areas of the foothills, and inundated residences with water and mud. Anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected to increased summer temperatures and decrease summer precipitation; the associated increase in fire risk necessitates enhanced wildfire planning in Boise's WUI. Temporal uncertainty with varying weather and vegetation conditions poses problems in defining wildfire risk and requires new methods to address the WUI challenges. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could identify and characterize fire hazards to be mapped and used as a management tool. This technology would allow for repeat flights to update risk analysis as the hazards change both annually and multiple times within each fire season. With aerial photography obtained from flights, Structure from Motion software can be used to compile the images and render a 3D model to help quantify biomass. Aerial photographs would also allow for the ability to track seasonal changes in fire risk from vegetation height and inferred moisture content. Boise State University's departments of Geoscience, Community and Regional Planning, and the Public Policy Center are examining the risks and impacts of fire along the Boise WUI. The research integrates the perspectives of the geosciences and social sciences by combining physically-based fire hazards, effective fire management policies, and urban/regional planning in the WUI to provide better spatially-appropriate data and resources to the community and a common reference to assist in unifying the local efforts for fire mitigation. This presentation will introduce findings from a homeowner's survey of potentially at-risk residents regarding their perceptions of risk and uncertainty and their receptiveness to local mitigation, adaptation policies, and alternatives.

Noise-induced hearing loss: a military perspective.

PubMed

Pfannenstiel, Travis J

2014-10-01

To summarize relevant literature occurring over the past 12-18 months forwarding understanding of noise-induced hearing loss in relation to military service. Hearing loss prior to entry into military service is highly predictive of subsequent hearing loss and hearing loss disability. Tightly controlled organic solvent exposure may not be a significant risk factor for noise-induced hearing loss. Increasingly detailed analysis of high intensity noise, impulse and blast noise exposures, and the methods used to mitigate these exposures are leading to breakthroughs in understanding and predicting hearing loss in military service. Prevention, mitigation, treatment, and prediction of the effects of hazardous noise exposure in military service continue to require a multidisciplinary team of individuals from around the world fully aware of the detrimental effect to service members and their societies of hearing loss disability.

Performance evaluation of setback buildings with open ground storey on plain and sloping ground under earthquake loadings and mitigation of failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Rahul; Debbarma, Rama

2017-06-01

Setback structures are highly vulnerable during earthquakes due to its vertical geometrical and mass irregularity, but the vulnerability becomes higher if the structures also have stiffness irregularity in elevation. The risk factor of such structure may increase, if the structure rests on sloping ground. In this paper, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic performance of setback structures resting on plain ground as well as in the slope of a hill, with soft storey configuration. The analysis has been performed in three individual methods, equivalent static force method, response spectrum method and time history method and extreme responses have been recorded for open ground storeyed setback building. To mitigate this soft storey effect and the extreme responses, three individual mitigation techniques have been adopted and the best solution among these three techniques is presented.

The economics of abrupt climate change.

PubMed

Perrings, Charles

2003-09-15

The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

Use of surrogate indicators for the evaluation of potential health risks due to poor urban water quality: A Bayesian Network approach.

PubMed

Wijesiri, Buddhi; Deilami, Kaveh; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2018-02-01

Urban water pollution poses risks of waterborne infectious diseases. Therefore, in order to improve urban liveability, effective pollution mitigation strategies are required underpinned by predictions generated using water quality models. However, the lack of reliability in current modelling practices detrimentally impacts planning and management decision making. This research study adopted a novel approach in the form of Bayesian Networks to model urban water quality to better investigate the factors that influence risks to human health. The application of Bayesian Networks was found to enhance the integration of quantitative and qualitative spatially distributed data for analysing the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors using three surrogate indicators of human health risk, namely, turbidity, total nitrogen and fats/oils. Expert knowledge was found to be of critical importance in assessing the interdependent relationships between health risk indicators and influential factors. The spatial variability maps of health risk indicators developed enabled the initial identification of high risk areas in which flooding was found to be the most significant influential factor in relation to human health risk. Surprisingly, population density was found to be less significant in influencing health risk indicators. These high risk areas in turn can be subjected to more in-depth investigations instead of the entire region, saving time and resources. It was evident that decision making in relation to the design of pollution mitigation strategies needs to account for the impact of landscape characteristics on water quality, which can be related to risk to human health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.

PubMed

Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

2014-01-01

Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

Real-time assessment of fog-related crashes using airport weather data: a feasibility analysis.

PubMed

Ahmed, Mohamed M; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung; Yu, Rongjie

2014-11-01

The effect of reduction of visibility on crash occurrence has recently been a major concern. Although visibility detection systems can help to mitigate the increased hazard of limited-visibility, such systems are not widely implemented and many locations with no systems are experiencing considerable number of fatal crashes due to reduction in visibility caused by fog and inclement weather. On the other hand, airports' weather stations continuously monitor all climate parameters in real-time, and the gathered data may be utilized to mitigate the increased risk for the adjacent roadways. This study aims to examine the viability of using airport weather information in real-time road crash risk assessment in locations with recurrent fog problems. Bayesian logistic regression was utilized to link six years (2005-2010) of historical crash data to real-time weather information collected from eight airports in the State of Florida, roadway characteristics and aggregate traffic parameters. The results from this research indicate that real-time weather data collected from adjacent airports are good predictors to assess increased risk on highways. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

PubMed Central

Shikha

2014-01-01

Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater. PMID:25374935

Quantitative Risk Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helms, J.

2017-02-10

The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investmentsmore » or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.« less

Human Mars EDL Pathfinder Study: Assessment of Technology Development Gaps and Mitigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillard, Randolph; Olejniczak, Joe; Polsgrove, Tara; Cianciolo, Alice Dwyer; Munk, Michelle; Whetsel, Charles; Drake, Bret

2017-01-01

This paper presents the results of a NASA initiated Agency-wide assessment to better characterize the risks and potential mitigation approaches associated with landing human class Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems on Mars. Due to the criticality and long-lead nature of advancing EDL techniques, it is necessary to determine an appropriate strategy to improve the capability to land large payloads. A key focus of this study was to understand the key EDL risks and with a focus on determining what "must" be tested at Mars. This process identified the various risks and potential risk mitigation strategies along with the key near term technology development efforts required and in what environment those technology demonstrations were best suited. The study identified key risks along with advantages to each entry technology. In addition, it was identified that provided the EDL concept of operations (con ops) minimized large scale transition events, there was no technology requirement for a Mars pre-cursor demonstration. Instead, NASA should take a direct path to a human-scale lander.

Risk management and post-marketing surveillance of CNS drugs.

PubMed

Henningfield, Jack E; Schuster, Charles R

2009-12-01

Drugs affecting the central nervous system span a broad range of chemical entities, dosage forms, indications, and risks. Unintended consequences include potential abuse and overdose in non-patient drug abusers, deliberate tampering of drug dosage forms, and criminal behavior associated with diversion. Regulators must consider diverse factors to find the appropriate conditions of approval to minimize unintended consequences while enabling a level of access desired by health care providers and patients. This commentary appears as part of a special issue of Drug and Alcohol Dependence that focuses on risk management and post-marketing surveillance and addresses key issues that pose real-world challenges to pharmaceutical sponsors and regulators in particular. For example, in the U.S., Controlled Substances Act drug scheduling can be considered a risk management strategy but its legal authorities and administrative processes are independent from those of risk management (including Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies or REMS); better harmonization of these approaches is vital from drug development and regulatory perspectives. Risk management would ideally be implemented on a strong science foundation demonstrating that the tools employed to mitigate risks and ensure safe use are effective. In reality, research and evaluation of tools in this area is in its infancy and will necessarily be an evolutionary process; furthermore, there is little precedent for linking interventions and program evolution to unintended consequences such as regional outbreaks of abuse and diversion. How such issues are resolved has the potential to stimulate or stifle innovations in drug development and advance or imperil health care.

QuEST: Qualifying Environmentally Sustainable Technologies. Volume 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Pattie

2011-01-01

QuEST is a publication of the NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Principal Center (TEERM). This issue contains brief articles on: Risk Identification and Mitigation, Material Management and Substitution Efforts--Hexavalent Chrome-free Coatings and Low volatile organic compounds (VOCs) Coatings, Lead-Free Electronics, Corn-Based Depainting Media; Alternative Energy Efforts Hydrogen Sensors and Solar Air Conditioning. Other TEERM Efforts include: Energy and Water Management and Remediation Technology Collaboration.

2010 Defense Industrial Base Critical Infrastructure Protection Conference (DIBCIP) Risk Reduction and Mitigation in the Defense Industrial Base

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-28

Base Critical Infrastructure Protection Conference (DIBCIP) “Risk Reduction & Mitigation in the Defense Industrial Base ” April 26-28, 2010...Philadelphia, PA Agenda Tuesday, April 27, 2010 Keynote Address: The Economic Crisis and Its Impact on the DIB: Defense Industrial Base Forecasts 2010...Ms. Nancy Pomerleau, Exercise Director, Partnership Outreach Division, DHS-IP DIB 2010 DIB CIP DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE CRITICAL

Mitigating Real or Perceived Risks: A Pro-Active Approach for Dealing with Naysayers and Critics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schutte, Bart; Jones, Kevin

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews an approach to mitigating real or perceived risks from "Naysayers" and critics in developing and using the software tools available with web 2.0. Some of the issues are about the use of the tools, the ability of management to control the use of these tools, privacy issues and the time the people spend using these tools.

Mitigation of Late Renal and Pulmonary Injury After Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cohen, Eric P., E-mail: Eric.Cohen2@va.gov; Bedi, Manpreet; Irving, Amy A.

Purpose: To update the results of a clinical trial that assessed whether the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor captopril was effective in mitigating chronic renal failure and pulmonary-related mortality in subjects undergoing total body irradiation (TBI) in preparation for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Methods and Materials: Updated records of the 55 subjects who were enrolled in this randomized controlled trial were analyzed. Twenty-eight patients received captopril, and 27 patients received placebo. Definitions of TBI-HSCT-related chronic renal failure (and relapse) were the same as those in the 2007 analysis. Pulmonary-related mortality was based on clinical or autopsy findings of pulmonary failure ormore » infection as the primary cause of death. Follow-up data for overall and pulmonary-related mortality were supplemented by use of the National Death Index. Results: The risk of TBI-HSCT-related chronic renal failure was lower in the captopril group (11% at 4 years) than in the placebo group (17% at 4 years), but this was not statistically significant (p > 0.2). Analysis of mortality was greatly extended by use of the National Death Index, and no patients were lost to follow-up for reasons other than death prior to 67 months. Patient survival was higher in the captopril group than in the placebo group, but this was not statistically significant (p > 0.2). The improvement in survival was influenced more by a decrease in pulmonary mortality (11% risk at 4 years in the captopril group vs. 26% in the placebo group, p = 0.15) than by a decrease in chronic renal failure. There was no adverse effect on relapse risk (p = 0.4). Conclusions: Captopril therapy produces no detectable adverse effects when given after TBI. Captopril therapy reduces overall and pulmonary-related mortality after radiation-based HSCT, and there is a trend toward mitigation of chronic renal failure.« less

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barley, Bryan; Newhouse, Marilyn; Bacskay, Allen

2010-01-01

Use of heritage and new technology is necessary/enabling to implementing small, low cost missions, yet overruns decrease the ability to sustain future mission flight rates The majority of the cost growth drivers seen in the D&NF study were embedded early during formulation phase and later realized during the development and I&T phases Cost drivers can be avoided or significantly decreased by project management and SE emphasis on early identification of risks and realistic analyses SE processes that emphasize an assessment of technology within the mission system to identify technical issues in the design or operational use of the technology. Realistic assessment of new and heritage spacecraft technology assumptions , identification of risks and mitigation strategies. Realistic estimates of effort required to inherit existing or qualify new technology, identification of risks to estimates and develop mitigation strategies. Allocation of project reserves for risk-based mitigation strategies of each individual area of heritage or new technology. Careful tailoring of inheritance processes to ensure due diligence.

Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two issues are examined: advantages and caveats of using radar rainfall estimates in operational flash flood forecasting, methodological problems as- sociated to the use of hydrological models for distributed flash flood forecasting with rainfall input estimated from radar.

Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.; Brookshire, D.S.; Thayer, M.A.

1990-01-01

Earthquake and volcano hazard notices were issued for the Mammoth Lakes, California area by the U.S. Geological Survey under the authority granted by the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. The effects on investment, recretion visitation, and risk perceptionsare explored. The hazard notices did not affect recreation visitation, although investment was affected. A perceived loss in the market value of homes was documented. Risk perceptions were altered for property owners. Communication of the probability of an event over time would enhance hazard notices as a policy instrument and would mitigate unnecessary market perturbations. ?? 1990.

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

A Stakeholder Survey on Live Bird Market Closures Policy for Controlling Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Thi Thanh Thuy; Fearnley, Lyle; Dinh, Xuan Tung; Tran, Thi Tram Anh; Tran, Trong Tung; Nguyen, Van Trong; Tago, Damian; Padungtod, Pawin; Newman, Scott H.; Tripodi, Astrid

2017-01-01

Extensive research in Vietnam and elsewhere has shown that live bird markets (LBMs) play a significant role in the ecology and zoonotic transmission of avian influenzas (AIs) including H5N1 and H7N9. Vietnam has a large number of LBMs reflecting the consumer preferences for live poultry. Under pressure to mitigate risks for H7N9 and other zoonotic AIs, Vietnam is considering, among other mitigation measures, temporary closures of LBMs as a policy to reduce risk of AI outbreaks. However, the efficacy of market closure is debated, particularly because little is known about how poultry traders may react, and whether trading may emerge outside formal marketplaces. Combining efforts of anthropologists, economists, sociologists, and veterinarians can be useful to elucidate the drivers behind poultry traders’ reactions and better understanding the barriers to implementing risk mitigation measures. In this paper, we present results from a stakeholder survey of LBM stakeholders in Vietnam. Our qualitative data show that trading outside formal markets is very likely to occur in the event of a temporary LBM market closure. Our data show that the poultry value chain in Vietnam remains highly flexible, with traders willing and able to trade poultry in many possible locations. Our results indicate that simplification of the poultry value chain along with strict enforcement, engagement of stakeholders, and adequate communication would be a necessary prerequisite before market closure could be an effective policy. PMID:28879203

A Stakeholder Survey on Live Bird Market Closures Policy for Controlling Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Vietnam.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thi Thanh Thuy; Fearnley, Lyle; Dinh, Xuan Tung; Tran, Thi Tram Anh; Tran, Trong Tung; Nguyen, Van Trong; Tago, Damian; Padungtod, Pawin; Newman, Scott H; Tripodi, Astrid

2017-01-01

Extensive research in Vietnam and elsewhere has shown that live bird markets (LBMs) play a significant role in the ecology and zoonotic transmission of avian influenzas (AIs) including H5N1 and H7N9. Vietnam has a large number of LBMs reflecting the consumer preferences for live poultry. Under pressure to mitigate risks for H7N9 and other zoonotic AIs, Vietnam is considering, among other mitigation measures, temporary closures of LBMs as a policy to reduce risk of AI outbreaks. However, the efficacy of market closure is debated, particularly because little is known about how poultry traders may react, and whether trading may emerge outside formal marketplaces. Combining efforts of anthropologists, economists, sociologists, and veterinarians can be useful to elucidate the drivers behind poultry traders' reactions and better understanding the barriers to implementing risk mitigation measures. In this paper, we present results from a stakeholder survey of LBM stakeholders in Vietnam. Our qualitative data show that trading outside formal markets is very likely to occur in the event of a temporary LBM market closure. Our data show that the poultry value chain in Vietnam remains highly flexible, with traders willing and able to trade poultry in many possible locations. Our results indicate that simplification of the poultry value chain along with strict enforcement, engagement of stakeholders, and adequate communication would be a necessary prerequisite before market closure could be an effective policy.

Mitigation of building-related polychlorinated biphenyls in indoor air of a school

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Sealants and other building materials sold in the U.S. from 1958 - 1971 were commonly manufactured with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at percent quantities by weight. Volatilization of PCBs from construction materials has been reported to produce PCB levels in indoor air that exceed health protective guideline values. The discovery of PCBs in indoor air of schools can produce numerous complications including disruption of normal operations and potential risks to health. Understanding the dynamics of building-related PCBs in indoor air is needed to identify effective strategies for managing potential exposures and risks. This paper reports on the efficacy of selected engineering controls implemented to mitigate concentrations of PCBs in indoor air. Methods Three interventions (ventilation, contact encapsulation, and physical barriers) were evaluated in an elementary school with PCB-containing caulk and elevated PCB concentrations in indoor air. Fluorescent light ballasts did not contain PCBs. Following implementation of the final intervention, measurements obtained over 14 months were used to assess the efficacy of the mitigation methods over time as well as temporal variability of PCBs in indoor air. Results Controlling for air exchange rates and temperature, the interventions produced statistically significant (p < 0.05) reductions in concentrations of PCBs in indoor air of the school. The mitigation measures remained effective over the course of the entire follow-up period. After all interventions were implemented, PCB levels in indoor air were associated with indoor temperature. In a "broken-stick" regression model with a node at 20°C, temperature explained 79% of the variability of indoor PCB concentrations over time (p < 0.001). Conclusions Increasing outdoor air ventilation, encapsulating caulk, and constructing a physical barrier over the encapsulated material were shown to be effective at reducing exposure concentrations of PCBs in indoor air of a school and also preventing direct contact with PCB caulk. In-place management methods such as these avoid the disruption and higher costs of demolition, disposal and reconstruction required when PCB-containing building materials are removed from a school. Because of the influence of temperature on indoor air PCB levels, risk assessment results based on short-term measurements, e.g., a single day or season, may be erroneous and could lead to sub-optimal allocation of resources. PMID:22490055

Nature, nurture, and capital punishment: How evidence of a genetic-environment interaction, future dangerousness, and deliberation affect sentencing decisions.

PubMed

Gordon, Natalie; Greene, Edie

2018-01-01

Research has shown that the low-activity MAOA genotype in conjunction with a history of childhood maltreatment increases the likelihood of violent behaviors. This genetic-environment (G × E) interaction has been introduced as mitigation during the sentencing phase of capital trials, yet there is scant data on its effectiveness. This study addressed that issue. In a factorial design that varied mitigating evidence offered by the defense [environmental (i.e., childhood maltreatment), genetic, G × E, or none] and the likelihood of the defendant's future dangerousness (low or high), 600 mock jurors read sentencing phase evidence in a capital murder trial, rendered individual verdicts, and half deliberated as members of a jury to decide a sentence of death or life imprisonment. The G × E evidence had little mitigating effect on sentencing preferences: participants who received the G × E evidence were no less likely to sentence the defendant to death than those who received evidence of childhood maltreatment or a control group that received neither genetic nor maltreatment evidence. Participants with evidence of a G × E interaction were more likely to sentence the defendant to death when there was a high risk of future dangerousness than when there was a low risk. Sentencing preferences were more lenient after deliberation than before. We discuss limitations and future directions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

2017-12-01

Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high uncertainty and limited resources. The most crucial steps are enforcing building codes and public education on earthquake risk reduction. Requiring moderate investments that increases building costs by 5-10% can substantially improve safety and is a cost effective strategy. Over time, natural building turnover will make communities more resilient.

Combating the Insider Cyber Threat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Moore, Andrew P.; Cappelli, Dawn M.

This article represents a collaboration between PNNL, CERT/CMU, and AFRL that describes needs and related efforts by these institutions to develop technologies and approaches to counter cyber threats by insiders to informatin systems. The main focus of this article is on the need for effective training on insider threat to raise staff awareness and encourage organizations to adopt a more effective approach to identifying potential risks and take proactive steps to mitigate them.

Does Media Literacy Mitigate Risk for Reduced Body Satisfaction Following Exposure to Thin-Ideal Media?

PubMed

McLean, Siân A; Paxton, Susan J; Wertheim, Eleanor H

2016-08-01

Exposure to thin-ideal media can contribute to increased body dissatisfaction in adolescent girls. Understanding the factors that may prevent or exacerbate the negative effects of media exposure on body dissatisfaction is important to facilitate prevention of these problems. This study evaluated the effects of exposure to thin-ideal media images on body image in three instructional set experimental conditions: appearance comparison, peer norms, and control. An important aim was to examine baseline levels of media literacy as a protective factor and trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison as risk factors. Early adolescent girls (N = 246) completed baseline measures and 1 week later viewed thin-ideal media images, before and after which they rated their state body satisfaction. Participants in the appearance comparison instruction but not peer norms instruction condition had significantly reduced body satisfaction. Media literacy, particularly high levels of critical thinking, mitigated the negative effects of trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison on body satisfaction outcomes. These findings provide evidence for the role of media literacy as a protective factor against the negative effects on body satisfaction of exposure to thin-ideal media images, and also provide evidence to support the development and implementation of media literacy-based body image interventions.

Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens.

PubMed

Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, Niels L; Sommer, Helle M; Nørrung, Birgit; Christensen, Bjarke B

2003-05-25

A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module 1 addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the simulations showed that people in the age of 18-29 years had the highest risk of developing campylobacteriosis.

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae.

PubMed

Gray, Laura K; Clarke, Charles; Wint, G R William; Moran, Jonathan A

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them.

The Neurobiology of Intervention and Prevention in Early Adversity.

PubMed

Fisher, Philip A; Beauchamp, Kate G; Roos, Leslie E; Noll, Laura K; Flannery, Jessica; Delker, Brianna C

2016-01-01

Early adverse experiences are well understood to affect development and well-being, placing individuals at risk for negative physical and mental health outcomes. A growing literature documents the effects of adversity on developing neurobiological systems. Fewer studies have examined stress neurobiology to understand how to mitigate the effects of early adversity. This review summarizes the research on three neurobiological systems relevant to interventions for populations experiencing high levels of early adversity: the hypothalamic-adrenal-pituitary axis, the prefrontal cortex regions involved in executive functioning, and the system involved in threat detection and response, particularly the amygdala. Also discussed is the emerging field of epigenetics and related interventions to mitigate early adversity. Further emphasized is the need for intervention research to integrate knowledge about the neurobiological effects of prenatal stressors (e.g., drug use, alcohol exposure) and early adversity. The review concludes with a discussion of the implications of this research topic for clinical psychology practice and public policy.

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Wint, G. R. William

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them. PMID:28817596

On the post mitigation impact risk assessment of possible targets for an asteroid deflection demonstration mission in the NEOShield project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggl, Siegfried

2014-05-01

Mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts. Yet, only the realization of a mitigation demonstration mission can confirm such a claim. The NEOShield project, an international collaboration under European leadership, aims to draw a comprehensive picture of the scientific as well as technical requirements to such an endeavor. One of the top priorities of such a demonstration mission is, of course, that a previously harmless target asteroid shall not be turned into a potentially hazardous object. Given the inherently large uncertainties in an asteroid's physical parameters, as well as the additional uncertainties introduced during the deflection attempt, an in depth analysis of the change in asteroid impact probabilities after a deflection event becomes necessary. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential deflection test missions and discuss the influence of orbital, physical and mitigation induced uncertainties.

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Research Risk for Persons With Psychiatric Disorders: A Decisional Framework to Meet the Ethical Challenge

PubMed Central

Yanos, Philip T.; Stanley, Barbara S.; Greene, Carolyn S.

2010-01-01

Objective There is a lack of consensus on how to evaluate the risk of research studies conducted with persons who have psychiatric disorders. The authors reviewed research on vulnerability, risk, and procedures to mitigate risk in studies with this population to help inform evaluation of such research. Methods Searches of MEDLINE (1966–2006), PsycINFO (1967–2006), and Google Scholar used combinations of the terms mental illness, vulnerable, psychiatric, schizophrenia, and depression combined with terms such as research risk, vulnerability, research harm, capacity, risk, and mitigation of risk. Articles were identified from reference lists, and additional searches used terms from identified articles. Results Evidence for two types of vulnerability—capacity based and power based—is presented, which supports the notion of vulnerability as a state, rather than a trait, among persons with psychiatric disorders. Three categories of risk are described—minimal risk, minor increment over minimal risk, and greater than minor increment. Evidence shows that many common types of studies pose risk in the first two categories when conducted with this population. The literature also describes procedures for reducing vulnerability and mitigating risk that should be considered in study evaluations. The authors offer a framework for evaluating the category of risk posed by a study. Conclusions Although more research is needed, there is sufficient evidence that many common types of research present minimal risk or only a minor increment over minimal risk for large segments of the population of persons with psychiatric disorders, as they do for persons in the general population. PMID:19252051

Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) Element Management Plan: Human Research Program. Revision B

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norsk, Peter; Baumann, David

2012-01-01

NASA s Human Research Program (HRP) is an applied research and technology program within the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) that addresses human health and performance risk mitigation strategies in support of exploration missions. The HRP research and technology development is focused on the highest priority risks to crew health and safety with the goal of ensuring mission success and maintaining long-term crew health. Crew health and performance standards, defined by the NASA Chief Health and Medical Officer (CHMO), set the acceptable risk level for exploration missions. The HRP conducts research to inform these standards as well as provide deliverables, such as countermeasures, that ensure standards can be met to maximize human performance and mission success. The Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) Element was formed as part of the HRP to develop a scientifically-based, integrated approach to understanding and mitigating the health risks associated with human spaceflight. These health risks have been organized into four research portfolios that group similar or related risks. A fifth portfolio exists for managing technology developments and infrastructure projects. The HHC Element portfolios consist of: a) Vision and Cardiovascular; b) Exercise and Performance; c) Multisystem; d) Bone; and e) Technology and Infrastructure. The HHC identifies gaps associated with the health risks and plans human physiology research that will result in knowledge required to more fully understand risks and will result in validated countermeasures to mitigate risks.