Electrophysiologic profile and results of invasive risk stratification in asymptomatic children and adolescents with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern.

PubMed

Kubuš, Peter; Vít, Pavel; Gebauer, Roman A; Materna, Ondřej; Janoušek, Jan

2014-04-01

Data on the results and clinical effect of an invasive risk stratification strategy in asymptomatic young patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern are scarce. Eighty-five consecutive patients aged<18 years with a Wolff-Parkinson-White pattern and persistent preexcitation at maximum exercise undergoing invasive risk stratification were retrospectively studied. Adverse accessory pathway (AP) properties were defined according to currently consented criteria as any of the following: shortest preexcited RR interval during atrial fibrillation/rapid atrial pacing≤250 ms (or antegrade effective refractory period≤250 ms if shortest preexcited RR interval was not available) or inducible atrioventricular re-entrant tachycardia. Age at evaluation was median 14.9 years. Eighty-two patients had a structurally normal heart and 3 had hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. A single manifest AP was present in 80, 1 manifest and 1 concealed AP in 4, and 2 manifest APs in 1 patient. Adverse AP properties were present in 32 of 85 patients (37.6%) at baseline and in additional 16 of 44 (36.4%) after isoproterenol. Ablation was performed in 41 of these 48 patients. Ablation was deferred in the remaining 7 for pathway proximity to the atrioventricular node. In addition, 18 of the low-risk patients were ablated based on patient/parental decision. Adverse AP properties at baseline were exhibited by 37.6% of the evaluated patients with an asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White preexcitation persisting at peak exercise. Isoproterenol challenge yielded additional 36.4% of those tested at higher risk. Ablation was performed in a total of 69.4% of patients subjected to invasive risk stratification.

Value of Exercise Stress Electrocardiography for Risk Stratification in Patients With Suspected or Known Coronary Artery Disease in the Era of Advanced Imaging Technologies

PubMed Central

Bourque, Jamieson M.; Beller, George A.

2015-01-01

Exercise stress electrocardiography (ExECG) is underutilized as the initial test modality in patients with interpretable electrocardiograms able to exercise. Although, stress myocardial imaging techniques provide valuable diagnostic and prognostic information, variables derived from ExECG can yield substantial data for risk stratification, either supplementary to imaging variables, or without concurrent imaging. In addition to exercise-induced ischemic ST depression, such markers as ST segment elevation in lead AVR, abnormal heart rate recovery post-exercise, failure to achieve target heart rate, and poor exercise capacity improve risk stratification of ExECG. For example, patients achieving ≥10 METS on ExECG have a very low prevalence of inducible ischemia and an excellent prognosis. In contrast, cardiac imaging techniques add diagnostic and prognostic value in higher risk populations (e.g. poor functional capacity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease). Optimal test selection for symptomatic patients with suspected coronary artery disease requires a patient-centered approach factoring in the risk/benefit ratio and cost-effectiveness. PMID:26563861

Current Indications for Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators in Non-Ischemic Cardiomyopathies and Channelopathies.

PubMed

González-Torrecilla, Esteban; Arenal, Angel; Atienza, Felipe; Datino, Tomás; Bravo, Loreto; Ruiz, Pablo; Ávila, Pablo; Fernández-Avilés, Francisco

2015-01-01

Current indications for implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) in patients with channelopathies and cardiomyopathies of non-ischemic origin are mainly based on non-randomized evidence. In patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM), there is a tendency towards a beneficial effect on total mortality of ICD therapy in patients with significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Although an important reduction in sudden cardiac death (SCD) seems to be clearly demonstrated in these patients, a net beneficial effect on total mortality is unclear mostly in cases with good functional status. Risk stratification has been changing over the last two decades in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Its risk profile has been delineated in parallel with the beneficial effect of ICD in high risk patients. Observational results based on "appropriate" ICD interventions do support its usefulness both in primary and secondary SCD prevention in these patients. Novel risk models quantify the rate of sudden cardiac death in these patients on individual basis. Less clear risk stratification is available for cases of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) and in other uncommon familiar cardiomyopathies. Main features of risk stratification vary among the different channelopathies (long QT syndrome -LQTS-, Brugada syndrome, etc) with great debate on the management of asymptomatic patients. For most familiar cardiomyopathies, ICD therapy is the only accepted strategy in the prevention of SCD. So far, genetic testing has a limited role in risk evaluation and management of the individual patient. This review aims to summarize these criticisms and to refine the current indications of ICD implantation in patients with cardiomyopathies and major channelopathies.

Progress towards personalized therapeutics: biologic- and risk-directed therapy for neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Gustafson, William Clay; Matthay, Katherine K

2011-10-01

Neuroblastoma, a tumor of the developing peripheral sympathetic nervous system, is the most common and deadly extracranial solid tumor of childhood. Risk-stratification and risk-adapted therapy play a large role in the modern treatment of neuroblastoma. Recently, through extensive international collaboration, new guidelines for risk stratification have emerged that will aid in international cooperative studies, as well as clarifying therapeutic options for patients. Current therapies for low- and intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have resulted in excellent prognoses for these risk strata, and current efforts are concentrated on chemotherapy reduction. By contrast, much more gradual progress has been made in improving survival for high-risk neuroblastoma patients, despite significant chemotherapy intensification. Current investigations focus on overcoming resistance by elucidating the molecular/genetic causes of neuroblastoma tumorigenesis and progression, with the aim of developing more effective biologically targeted therapies for this disease.

Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Prostate cancer (PCA) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous and the development of a molecular classification is...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0739 TITLE: Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer PRINCIPAL...AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH

SIOP‐PODC adapted risk stratification and treatment guidelines: Recommendations for neuroblastoma in low‐ and middle‐income settings

PubMed Central

Howard, Scott C.; Chantada, Guillermo; Israels, Trijn; Khattab, Mohammed; Alcasabas, Patricia; Lam, Catherine G.; Faulkner, Lawrence; Park, Julie R.; London, Wendy B.; Matthay, Katherine K.

2015-01-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in childhood in high‐income countries (HIC), where consistent treatment approaches based on clinical and tumor biological risk stratification have steadily improved outcomes. However, in low‐ and middle‐ income countries (LMIC), suboptimal diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment may occur due to limited resources and unavailable infrastructure. The clinical practice guidelines outlined in this manuscript are based on current published evidence and expert opinions. Standard risk stratification and treatment explicitly adapted to graduated resource settings can improve outcomes for children with neuroblastoma by reducing preventable toxic death and relapse. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2015;62:1305–1316. © 2015 The Authors. Pediatric Blood & Cancer, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25810263

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

PubMed

Jahn, Beate; Rochau, Ursula; Kurzthaler, Christina; Hubalek, Michael; Miksad, Rebecca; Sroczynski, Gaby; Paulden, Mike; Bundo, Marvin; Stenehjem, David; Brixner, Diana; Krahn, Murray; Siebert, Uwe

2017-10-16

Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification. A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed. Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test. Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk. In other words, low ODX risk suggests chemotherapy should not be considered but low AO risk may benefit from chemotherapy if ODX risk is high. Our analysis suggests that risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis, which includes companion prognostic tests are essential in PM.

Validating a Local Failure Risk Stratification for Use in Prospective Studies of Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Bladder Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumann, Brian C.; He, Jiwei; Hwang, Wei-Ting

Purpose: To inform prospective trials of adjuvant radiation therapy (adj-RT) for bladder cancer after radical cystectomy, a locoregional failure (LF) risk stratification was proposed. This stratification was developed and validated using surgical databases that may not reflect the outcomes expected in prospective trials. Our purpose was to assess sources of bias that may affect the stratification model's validity or alter the LF risk estimates for each subgroup: time bias due to evolving surgical techniques; trial accrual bias due to inclusion of patients who would be ineligible for adj-RT trials because of early disease progression, death, or loss to follow-up shortlymore » after cystectomy; bias due to different statistical methods to estimate LF; and subgrouping bias due to different definitions of the LF subgroups. Methods and Materials: The LF risk stratification was developed using a single-institution cohort (n=442, 1990-2008) and the multi-institutional SWOG 8710 cohort (n=264, 1987-1998) treated with radical cystectomy with or without chemotherapy. We evaluated the sensitivity of the stratification to sources of bias using Fine-Gray regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Results: Year of radical cystectomy was not associated with LF risk on univariate or multivariate analysis after controlling for risk group. By use of more stringent inclusion criteria, 26 SWOG patients (10%) and 60 patients from the single-institution cohort (14%) were excluded. Analysis of the remaining patients confirmed 3 subgroups with significantly different LF risks with 3-year rates of 7%, 17%, and 36%, respectively (P<.01), nearly identical to the rates without correcting for trial accrual bias. Kaplan-Meier techniques estimated higher subgroup LF rates than competing risk analysis. The subgroup definitions used in the NRG-GU001 adj-RT trial were validated. Conclusions: These sources of bias did not invalidate the LF risk stratification or substantially change the model's LF estimates.« less

Risk stratification, genomic data and the law.

PubMed

Hall, Alison; Finnegan, Thomas; Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Kroese, Mark; Burton, Hilary

2018-02-22

Risk prediction models have a key role in stratified disease prevention, and the incorporation of genomic data into these models promises more effective personalisation. Although the clinical utility of incorporating genomic data into risk prediction tools is increasingly compelling, at least for some applications and disease types, the legal and regulatory implications have not been examined and have been overshadowed by discussions about clinical and scientific utility and feasibility. We held a workshop to explore relevant legal and regulatory perspectives from four EU Member States: France, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. While we found no absolute prohibition on the use of such data in those tools, there are considerable challenges. Currently, these are modest and result from genomic data being classified as sensitive data under existing Data Protection regulation. However, these challenges will increase in the future following the implementation of EU Regulations on data protection which take effect in 2018, and reforms to the governance of the manufacture, development and use of in vitro diagnostic devices to be implemented in 2022. Collectively these will increase the regulatory burden placed on these products as risk stratification tools will be brought within the scope of these new Regulations. The failure to respond to the challenges posed by the use of genomic data in disease risk stratification tools could therefore prove costly to those developing and using such tools.

Noninvasive risk stratification for sudden death in asymptomatic patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

PubMed

Novella, John; DeBiasi, Ralph M; Coplan, Neil L; Suri, Ranji; Keller, Seth

2014-01-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) as the first clinical manifestation of Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome is a well-documented, although rare occurrence. The incidence of SCD in patients with WPW ranges from 0% to 0.39% annually. Controversy exists regarding risk stratification for patients with preexcitation on surface electrocardiogram (ECG), particularly in those who are asymptomatic. This article focuses on the role of risk stratification using exercise and pharmacologic testing in patients with WPW pattern on ECG.

The Auckland Cataract Study: Assessing Preoperative Risk Stratification Systems for Phacoemulsification Surgery in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2016-11-01

To evaluate 2 preoperative risk stratification systems for assessing the risk of complications in phacoemulsification cataract surgery, performed by residents, fellows, and attending physicians in a public teaching hospital. Cohort study. One observer assessed the clinical data of 500 consecutive cases, prior to phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed between April and June 2015 at Greenlane Clinical Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. Preoperatively 2 risk scores were calculated for each case using the Muhtaseb and Buckinghamshire risk stratification systems. Complications, intraoperative and postoperative, and visual outcomes were analyzed in relation to these risk scores. Intraoperative complication rates increased with higher risk scores using the Muhtaseb or Buckinghamshire stratification system (P = .001 and P = .003, respectively, n = 500). The odds ratios for residents and fellows were not significantly different from attending physicians after case-mix adjustment according to risk scores (P > .05). Postoperative complication rates increased with higher Buckinghamshire risk scores but not with Muhtaseb scores (P = .014 and P = .094, respectively, n = 476). Postoperative corrected-distance visual acuity was poorer with higher risk scores (P < .001 for both, n = 476). This study confirms that the risk of intraoperative complications increases with higher preoperative risk scores. Furthermore, higher risk scores correlate with poorer postoperative visual acuity and the Buckinghamshire risk score also correlates with postoperative complications. Therefore, preoperative assessment using such risk stratification systems could assist individual informed consent, preoperative surgical planning, safe allocation of cases to trainees, and more meaningful analyses of outcomes for individual surgeons and institutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Stratification Methods and Provision of Care Management Services in Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative Practices.

PubMed

Reddy, Ashok; Sessums, Laura; Gupta, Reshma; Jin, Janel; Day, Tim; Finke, Bruce; Bitton, Asaf

2017-09-01

Risk-stratified care management is essential to improving population health in primary care settings, but evidence is limited on the type of risk stratification method and its association with care management services. We describe risk stratification patterns and association with care management services for primary care practices in the Comprehensive Primary Care (CPC) initiative. We undertook a qualitative approach to categorize risk stratification methods being used by CPC practices and tested whether these stratification methods were associated with delivery of care management services. CPC practices reported using 4 primary methods to stratify risk for their patient populations: a practice-developed algorithm (n = 215), the American Academy of Family Physicians' clinical algorithm (n = 155), payer claims and electronic health records (n = 62), and clinical intuition (n = 52). CPC practices using practice-developed algorithm identified the most number of high-risk patients per primary care physician (282 patients, P = .006). CPC practices using clinical intuition had the most high-risk patients in care management and a greater proportion of high-risk patients receiving care management per primary care physician (91 patients and 48%, P =.036 and P =.128, respectively). CPC practices used 4 primary methods to identify high-risk patients. Although practices that developed their own algorithm identified the greatest number of high-risk patients, practices that used clinical intuition connected the greatest proportion of patients to care management services. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the primary prevention of CHD. Especially for low-CHD risk women, decisions on the appropriate primary prevention strategy should be based on shared decision making between patients and healthcare providers. PMID:26422204

Risk stratification of thyroid nodules on ultrasonography with the French TI-RADS: description and reflections

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The widespread use of ultrasonography places it in a key position for use in the risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The French proposal is a five-tier system, our version of a thyroid imaging reporting and database system (TI-RADS), which includes a standardized vocabulary and report and a quantified risk assessment. It allows the selection of the nodules that should be referred for fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Effort should be directed towards merging the different risk stratification systems utilized around the world and testing this unified system with multi-center studies. PMID:26324117

Chromosome 9p21 In Ischemic Stroke: Population Structure and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Anderson, CD; Biffi, A; Rost, NS; Cortellini, L; Furie, KL; Rosand, J

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose Sequence variants on chromosome 9p21.3 are implicated in coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial infarction (MI), but studies in ischemic stroke have produced inconsistent results. We investigated whether these conflicting findings were due to false positive studies confounded by population stratification, or false negative studies that failed to account for effects specific to certain stroke subtypes. Methods After assessing for population stratification at 9p21.3 using genome-wide data, we meta-analyzed 8 ischemic stroke studies. This analysis focused on two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs1537378 and rs10757278, as these variants are in strong linkage disequilibrium with most SNPs analyzed in prior studies of the region. Results Principal component analysis of the genome-wide data showed no evidence of population stratification at that locus. Meta-analysis confirmed that both rs1537378 and rs10757278 are risk factors for ischemic stroke (odds ratios 1.09, [p = 0.0014], and 1.11, [p = 0.001] respectively). Subtype analysis revealed a substantial increase in the effect of each SNP for risk of large artery (LA) stroke, achieving an effect size similar to that seen in CAD/MI. Conclusions Variants on 9p21.3 are associated with ischemic stroke, and restriction of analysis to LA stroke increases effect size towards that observed in prior association studies of CAD/MI. Previous inconsistent findings are best explained by this subtype-specificity rather than any unmeasured confounding by population stratification. PMID:20395606

State of the Art: Blood Biomarkers for Risk Stratification in Patients with Stable Ischemic Heart Disease.

PubMed

Omland, Torbjørn; White, Harvey D

2017-01-01

Multiple circulating biomarkers have been associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events and proposed as potential tools for risk stratification in stable ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet current guidelines do not make any firm recommendations concerning the use of biomarkers for risk stratification in this setting. This state-of-the-art review provides an overview of biomarkers for risk stratification in stable IHD. Circulating biomarkers associated with the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with stable IHD reflect different pathophysiological processes, including myocardial injury, myocardial stress and remodeling, metabolic status, vascular inflammation, and oxidative stress. Compared to the primary prevention setting, biomarkers reflecting end-organ damage and future risk of heart failure development and cardiovascular death may play more important roles in the stable IHD setting. Accordingly, biomarkers that reflect chronic, low-grade myocardial injury, and stress, i.e., high-sensitivity cardiac troponins and natriuretic peptides, provide graded and incremental prognostic information to conventional risk markers. In contrast, in stable IHD patients the prognostic value of traditional metabolic biomarkers, including serum lipids, is limited. Among several novel biomarkers, growth-differentiation factor-15 may provide the most robust prognostic information, whereas most inflammatory markers provide limited incremental prognostic information to risk factor models that include conventional risk factors, natriuretic peptides, and high-sensitivity troponins. Circulating biomarkers hold promise as useful tools for risk stratification in stable IHD, but their future incorporation into clinically useful risk scores will depend on prospective, rigorously performed clinical trials that document enhanced risk prediction. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p<0.001)/GBS = 0.810 (CI: 0.744-0.877; p->0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; p<0.001)], whereas only CRS achieved significance in identifying re-bleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

New Methods for the Analysis of Heartbeat Behavior in Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Glass, Leon; Lerma, Claudia; Shrier, Alvin

2011-01-01

Developing better methods for risk stratification for tachyarrhythmic sudden cardiac remains a major challenge for physicians and scientists. Since the transition from sinus rhythm to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation happens by different mechanisms in different people, it is unrealistic to think that a single measure will be adequate to provide a good index for risk stratification. We analyze the dynamical properties of ventricular premature complexes over 24 h in an effort to understand the underlying mechanisms of ventricular arrhythmias and to better understand the arrhythmias that occur in individual patients. Two dimensional density plots, called heartprints, correlate characteristic features of the dynamics of premature ventricular complexes and the sinus rate. Heartprints show distinctive characteristics in individual patients. Based on a better understanding of the natures of transitions from sinus rhythm to sudden cardiac and the mechanisms of arrhythmia prior to cardiac arrest, it should be possible to develop better methods for risk stratification. PMID:22144963

Predictors of Post-discharge Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for Acute Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Collins, Sean P; Greene, Stephen J; Pang, Peter S; Ambrosy, Andrew P; Antohi, Elena-Laura; Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Butler, Javed; Gheorghiade, Mihai

2017-01-01

Acute Heart Failure (AHF) is a “ multi-event disease” and hospitalisation is a critical event in the clinical course of HF. Despite relatively rapid relief of symptoms, hospitalisation for AHF is followed by an increased risk of death and re-hospitalisation. In AHF, risk stratification from clinically available data is increasingly important in evaluating long-term prognosis. From the perspective of patients, information on the risk of mortality and re-hospitalisation would be helpful in providing patients with insight into their disease. From the perspective of care providers, it may facilitate management decisions, such as who needs to be admitted and to what level of care (i.e. floor, step-down, ICU). Furthermore, risk-stratification may help identify patients who need to be evaluated for advanced HF therapies (i.e. left-ventricle assistance device or transplant or palliative care), and patients who need early a post-discharge follow-up plan. Finally, risk stratification will allow for more robust efforts to identify among risk markers the true targets for therapies that may direct treatment strategies to selected high-risk patients. Further clinical research will be needed to evaluate if appropriate risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources allocation. PMID:29387465

Current approaches for risk stratification of infectious complications in pediatric oncology.

PubMed

Härtel, Christoph; Deuster, Maresa; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Schultz, Christian

2007-11-01

Infections are serious complications of cytoreductive therapy in pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia. It is standard of care to initiate empirical intravenous broad-spectrum antibiotics until the fever and neutropenia resolve. However, it might be effective and safe to allow for early hospital discharge in certain subgroups of patients. Two strategies for risk stratification of pediatric cancer patients with regard to infectious complications are discussed in this review: (1) clinical risk parameters and laboratory measures to assist therapeutic management at presentation with fever in neutropenia, and (2) investigations of individual genetic susceptibility factors to tailor potential prophylactic approaches. Given the data available from a significant number of small studies, a large prospective non-inferiority trial is essential to assess low-risk clinical factors and additional laboratory or genetic markers for their predictive value. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Risk Stratification and Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Schroy, Paul C; Duhovic, Emir; Chen, Clara A; Heeren, Timothy C; Lopez, William; Apodaca, Danielle L; Wong, John B

2016-05-01

Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet providers often fail to comply with patient preferences that differ from their own. To determine whether risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) influences provider willingness to comply with patient preferences when selecting a desired CRC screening option. Randomized controlled trial. Asymptomatic, average-risk patients due for CRC screening in an urban safety net health care setting. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a decision aid alone (n= 168) or decision aid plus risk assessment (n= 173) arm between September 2012 and September 2014. The primary outcome was concordance between patient preference and test ordered; secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, test completion rates, and provider satisfaction. Although providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in selecting an appropriate screening test for their average-risk patients, no significant differences in concordance were observed between the decision aid alone and decision aid plus risk assessment groups (88.1% v. 85.0%,P= 0.40) or high- and low-risk groups (84.5% v. 87.1%,P= 0.51). Concordance was highest for colonoscopy and relatively low for tests other than colonoscopy, regardless of study arm or risk group. Failure to comply with patient preferences was negatively associated with satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, and test completion rates. Single-institution setting; lack of provider education about the utility of risk stratification into their decision making. Providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in their decision making but often failed to comply with patient preferences for tests other than colonoscopy, even among those deemed to be at low risk of ACN. © The Author(s) 2016.

Segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, A; Fischer, C; Schroeder, R; Figulla, H R; Goernig, M

2010-01-01

The prognostic value of heart rate variability in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is limited and does not contribute to risk stratification although the dynamics of ventricular repolarization differs considerably between DCM patients and healthy subjects. Neither linear nor nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis could discriminate between patients at high and low risk for sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study was to analyze the suitability of the new developed segmented Poincaré plot analysis (SPPA) to enhance risk stratification in DCM. In contrast to the usual applied Poincaré plot analysis the SPPA retains nonlinear features from investigated beat-to-beat interval time series. Main features of SPPA are the rotation of cloud of points and their succeeded variability depended segmentation. Significant row and column probabilities were calculated from the segments and led to discrimination (up to p<0.005) between low and high risk in DCM patients. For the first time an index from Poincaré plot analysis of heart rate variability was able to contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from DCM.

Evidence-based Guidelines for Precision Risk Stratification-Based Screening (PRSBS) for Colorectal Cancer: Lessons learned from the US Armed Forces: Consensus and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Avital, Itzhak; Langan, Russell C.; Summers, Thomas A.; Steele, Scott R.; Waldman, Scott A.; Backman, Vadim; Yee, Judy; Nissan, Aviram; Young, Patrick; Womeldorph, Craig; Mancusco, Paul; Mueller, Renee; Noto, Khristian; Grundfest, Warren; Bilchik, Anton J.; Protic, Mladjan; Daumer, Martin; Eberhardt, John; Man, Yan Gao; Brücher, Björn LDM; Stojadinovic, Alexander

2013-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death in the United States (U.S.), with estimates of 143,460 new cases and 51,690 deaths for the year 2012. Numerous organizations have published guidelines for CRC screening; however, these numerical estimates of incidence and disease-specific mortality have remained stable from years prior. Technological, genetic profiling, molecular and surgical advances in our modern era should allow us to improve risk stratification of patients with CRC and identify those who may benefit from preventive measures, early aggressive treatment, alternative treatment strategies, and/or frequent surveillance for the early detection of disease recurrence. To better negotiate future economic constraints and enhance patient outcomes, ultimately, we propose to apply the principals of personalized and precise cancer care to risk-stratify patients for CRC screening (Precision Risk Stratification-Based Screening, PRSBS). We believe that genetic, molecular, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities impact oncological outcomes in general, those related to CRC, in particular. This document highlights evidence-based screening recommendations and risk stratification methods in response to our CRC working group private-public consensus meeting held in March 2012. Our aim was to address how we could improve CRC risk stratification-based screening, and to provide a vision for the future to achieving superior survival rates for patients diagnosed with CRC. PMID:23459409

Risk stratification using SpO2/FiO2 and PEEP at initial ARDS diagnosis and after 24 h in patients with moderate or severe ARDS.

PubMed

Pisani, Luigi; Roozeman, Jan-Paul; Simonis, Fabienne D; Giangregorio, Antonio; van der Hoeven, Sophia M; Schouten, Laura R; Horn, Janneke; Neto, Ary Serpa; Festic, Emir; Dondorp, Arjen M; Grasso, Salvatore; Bos, Lieuwe D; Schultz, Marcus J

2017-10-25

We assessed the potential of risk stratification of ARDS patients using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) at ARDS onset and after 24 h. We used data from a prospective observational study in patients admitted to a mixed medical-surgical intensive care unit of a university hospital in the Netherlands. Risk stratification was by cutoffs for SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients with moderate or severe ARDS with a length of stay of > 24 h were included in this study. Patients were assigned to four predefined risk groups: group I (SpO 2 /FiO 2  ≥ 190 and PEEP < 10 cm H 2 O), group II (SpO 2 /FiO 2  ≥ 190 and PEEP ≥ 10 cm), group III (SpO 2 /FiO 2  < 190 and PEEP < 10 cm H 2 O) and group IV (SpO 2 /FiO 2  < 190 and PEEP ≥ 10 cm H 2 O). The analysis included 456 patients. SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 had a strong relationship (P < 0.001, R 2  = 0.676) that could be described in a linear regression equation (SpO 2 /FiO 2  = 42.6 + 1.0 * PaO 2 /FiO 2 ). Risk stratification at initial ARDS diagnosis resulted in groups that had no differences in in-hospital mortality. Risk stratification at 24 h resulted in groups with increasing mortality rates. The association between group assignment at 24 h and outcome was confounded by several factors, including APACHE IV scores, arterial pH and plasma lactate levels, and vasopressor therapy. In this cohort of patients with moderate or severe ARDS, SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 have a strong linear relationship. In contrast to risk stratification at initial ARDS diagnosis, risk stratification using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP after 24 h resulted in groups with worsening outcomes. Risk stratification using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP could be practical, especially in resource-limited settings.

Utility of Risk Stratification for Paclitaxel Hypersensitivity Reactions.

PubMed

Otani, Iris M; Lax, Timothy; Long, Aidan A; Slawski, Benjamin R; Camargo, Carlos A; Banerji, Aleena

2017-10-03

Hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) are a common impediment to paclitaxel therapy. Management strategies to guide care after a paclitaxel-induced HSR are needed. The objective was to evaluate the utility and safety of risk stratification on the basis of severity of the initial HSR. A risk stratification pathway was developed on the basis of a retrospective review of the management and outcome of 130 patients with paclitaxel-induced HSRs at Massachusetts General Hospital. This pathway was then studied prospectively in patients referred to Allergy/Immunology with paclitaxel-induced HSRs. The study population (n = 35) had a mean age of 56.1 ± 12 years and most were women (n = 33 [94%]). All 5 patients (15%) with grade 1 initial HSRs were successfully reexposed to paclitaxel, 1 patient at the standard infusion rate and 4 patients at 50% of the standard infusion rate. Thirty patients (85%) with grade 2 to 4 initial HSRs underwent initial paclitaxel desensitization based on the risk stratification pathway. No patients developed severe HSRs using the pathway. Eleven (31%) patients had HSRs that were mild to moderate in nature (grade 1, n = 4 [11%]; grade 2, n = 6 [17%]; grade 3, n = 1 [3%]) during their first desensitization. Sixteen (46%) of the 35 patients safely returned to the outpatient infusion setting for paclitaxel treatment at 50% of the standard infusion rate. Seven (20%) discontinued paclitaxel before the completion of the risk stratification pathway because of disease progression, completion of therapy, or death. A management strategy using the initial HSR severity for risk stratification allowed patients to receive paclitaxel safely. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of prognostic models developed using standardised image features from different PET automated segmentation methods.

PubMed

Parkinson, Craig; Foley, Kieran; Whybra, Philip; Hills, Robert; Roberts, Ashley; Marshall, Chris; Staffurth, John; Spezi, Emiliano

2018-04-11

Prognosis in oesophageal cancer (OC) is poor. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is approximately 15%. Personalised medicine is hoped to increase the 5- and 10-year OS rates. Quantitative analysis of PET is gaining substantial interest in prognostic research but requires the accurate definition of the metabolic tumour volume. This study compares prognostic models developed in the same patient cohort using individual PET segmentation algorithms and assesses the impact on patient risk stratification. Consecutive patients (n = 427) with biopsy-proven OC were included in final analysis. All patients were staged with PET/CT between September 2010 and July 2016. Nine automatic PET segmentation methods were studied. All tumour contours were subjectively analysed for accuracy, and segmentation methods with < 90% accuracy were excluded. Standardised image features were calculated, and a series of prognostic models were developed using identical clinical data. The proportion of patients changing risk classification group were calculated. Out of nine PET segmentation methods studied, clustering means (KM2), general clustering means (GCM3), adaptive thresholding (AT) and watershed thresholding (WT) methods were included for analysis. Known clinical prognostic factors (age, treatment and staging) were significant in all of the developed prognostic models. AT and KM2 segmentation methods developed identical prognostic models. Patient risk stratification was dependent on the segmentation method used to develop the prognostic model with up to 73 patients (17.1%) changing risk stratification group. Prognostic models incorporating quantitative image features are dependent on the method used to delineate the primary tumour. This has a subsequent effect on risk stratification, with patients changing groups depending on the image segmentation method used.

Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification.

PubMed

Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

2013-01-01

In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period.

Contemporary post surgical management of differentiated thyroid carcinoma.

PubMed

Tala, H; Tuttle, R M

2010-08-01

Risk assessment is the cornerstone of contemporary management of thyroid cancer. Following thyroid surgery, an initial risk assessment of recurrence and disease-specific mortality is made using important intra-operative findings, histologic characteristics of the tumor, molecular profile of the tumor, post-operative serum thyroglobulin and any available cross-sectional imaging studies. This initial risk assessment is used to guide recommendations regarding the need for remnant ablation, external beam irradiation, systemic therapy, degree of TSH suppression, and follow-up disease detection strategy over the first 2 years after initial therapy. While this initial risk stratification provides valuable information, it is a static representation of the patient in the first few weeks post-operatively that does not change over time. Depending on how the patient responds to our initial therapies, the risk of recurrence and death may change significantly during follow-up. In order to account for differences in response to therapy in individual patients and to incorporate the impact of treatment on our initial risk estimates, we recommend a re-stratification of risk at the 2-year point of follow-up. This re-stratification provides an updated risk estimate that can be used to guide ongoing management recommendations including the frequency and intensity of follow-up, degree of ongoing TSH suppression, and need for additional therapies. Ongoing management recommendations must be tailored to realistic, evolving risk estimates that are actively updated during follow-up. By individualizing therapy on the basis of initial and ongoing risk assessments, we can maximize the beneficial effects of aggressive therapy in patients with thyroid cancer who are likely to benefit from it, while minimizing potential complications and side effects in low-risk patients destined to have a full healthy and productive life after minimal therapeutic intervention. Copyright (c) 2010 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Risk Stratification of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) by the Primary Care Physician Using the NAFLD Fibrosis Score.

PubMed

Tapper, Elliot B; Hunink, M G Myriam; Afdhal, Nezam H; Lai, Michelle; Sengupta, Neil

2016-01-01

The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP) with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists. We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only). NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and correct classification of fibrosis. Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6%) and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5) while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification. Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice.

Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk by Aberrant Methylation in Mammary Duct Lavage

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

Assessment of breast epithelial cells obtained by nipple duct lavage (NDL) may have value for breast cancer risk stratification. NDL was performed in 150...contribute to risk stratification. 15. SUBJECT TERMS breast cancer, DNA methylation, Methylation Specific PCR, Nipple Duct Lavage, Risk assessment 16...carcinogenesis. Nipple duct lavage (NDL) is a minimally invasive approach for obtaining breast epithelial cells. Cytological atypia identified in nipple

68Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT: a promising new technique for predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Liu, Chen; Liu, Teli; Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yiqiang; Li, Nan; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong; Liu, Ming; Gong, Kan; Yang, Xing; Zhu, Hua; Yan, Kun; Yang, Zhi

2018-05-02

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT in predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer as confirmed by needle biopsy were continuously included, 40 in a train set and ten in a test set. 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT and clinical data of all patients were retrospectively analyzed. Semi-quantitative analysis of PET images provided maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of primary prostate cancer and volumetric parameters including intraprostatic PSMA-derived tumor volume (iPSMA-TV) and intraprostatic total lesion PSMA (iTL-PSMA). According to prostate cancer risk stratification criteria of the NCCN Guideline, all patients were simplified into a low-intermediate risk group or a high-risk group. The semi-quantitative parameters of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT were used to establish a univariate logistic regression model for high-risk prostate cancer and its metastatic risk, and to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the predictive model. In the train set, 30/40 (75%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer and 10/40 (25%) patients had low-to-moderate-risk prostate cancer; in the test set, 8/10 (80%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer while 2/10 (20%) had low-intermediate risk prostate cancer. The univariate logistic regression model established with SUVmax, iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA could all effectively predict high-risk prostate cancer; the AUC of ROC were 0.843, 0.802 and 0.900, respectively. Based on the test set, the sensitivity and specificity of each model were 87.5% and 50% for SUVmax, 62.5% and 100% for iPSMA-TV, and 87.5% and 100% for iTL-PSMA, respectively. The iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA-based predictive model could predict the metastatic risk of prostate cancer, the AUC of ROC was 0.863 and 0.848, respectively, but the SUVmax-based prediction model could not predict metastatic risk. Semi-quantitative analysis indexes of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT imaging can be used as "imaging biomarkers" to predict risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer.

Risk scoring models for predicting peri-operative morbidity and mortality in people with fragility hip fractures: Qualitative systematic review.

PubMed

Marufu, Takawira C; Mannings, Alexa; Moppett, Iain K

2015-12-01

Accurate peri-operative risk prediction is an essential element of clinical practice. Various risk stratification tools for assessing patients' risk of mortality or morbidity have been developed and applied in clinical practice over the years. This review aims to outline essential characteristics (predictive accuracy, objectivity, clinical utility) of currently available risk scoring tools for hip fracture patients. We searched eight databases; AMED, CINHAL, Clinical Trials.gov, Cochrane, DARE, EMBASE, MEDLINE and Web of Science for all relevant studies published until April 2015. We included published English language observational studies that considered the predictive accuracy of risk stratification tools for patients with fragility hip fracture. After removal of duplicates, 15,620 studies were screened. Twenty-nine papers met the inclusion criteria, evaluating 25 risk stratification tools. Risk stratification tools considered in more than two studies were; ASA, CCI, E-PASS, NHFS and O-POSSUM. All tools were moderately accurate and validated in multiple studies; however there are some limitations to consider. The E-PASS and O-POSSUM are comprehensive but complex, and require intraoperative data making them a challenge for use on patient bedside. The ASA, CCI and NHFS are simple, easy and inexpensive using routinely available preoperative data. Contrary to the ASA and CCI which has subjective variables in addition to other limitations, the NHFS variables are all objective. In the search for a simple and inexpensive, easy to calculate, objective and accurate tool, the NHFS may be the most appropriate of the currently available scores for hip fracture patients. However more studies need to be undertaken before it becomes a national hip fracture risk stratification or audit tool of choice. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists

PubMed Central

Trivedi, Palak J.; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert

2015-01-01

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644–659) PMID:26290473

Quantitative modeling of clinical, cellular, and extracellular matrix variables suggest prognostic indicators in cancer: a model in neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Tadeo, Irene; Piqueras, Marta; Montaner, David; Villamón, Eva; Berbegall, Ana P; Cañete, Adela; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

2014-02-01

Risk classification and treatment stratification for cancer patients is restricted by our incomplete picture of the complex and unknown interactions between the patient's organism and tumor tissues (transformed cells supported by tumor stroma). Moreover, all clinical factors and laboratory studies used to indicate treatment effectiveness and outcomes are by their nature a simplification of the biological system of cancer, and cannot yet incorporate all possible prognostic indicators. A multiparametric analysis on 184 tumor cylinders was performed. To highlight the benefit of integrating digitized medical imaging into this field, we present the results of computational studies carried out on quantitative measurements, taken from stromal and cancer cells and various extracellular matrix fibers interpenetrated by glycosaminoglycans, and eight current approaches to risk stratification systems in patients with primary and nonprimary neuroblastoma. New tumor tissue indicators from both fields, the cellular and the extracellular elements, emerge as reliable prognostic markers for risk stratification and could be used as molecular targets of specific therapies. The key to dealing with personalized therapy lies in the mathematical modeling. The use of bioinformatics in patient-tumor-microenvironment data management allows a predictive model in neuroblastoma.

Risk stratification and staging in prostate cancer with prostatic specific membrane antigen PET/CTObjective: A one-stop-shop.

PubMed

Gupta, Manoj; Choudhury, Partha Sarathi; Rawal, Sudhir; Goel, Harish Chandra; Singh, Amitabh; Talwar, Vineet; Sahoo, Saroj Kumar

2017-01-01

Current imaging modalities for prostate cancer (PC) had limitations for risk stratification and staging. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) frequently underestimated lymphatic metastasis while bone scintigraphy often had diagnostic dilemmas. Prostatic specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) has been remarkable in diagnosing PC recurrence and staging. We hypothesized it can become one-stop-shop for initial risk stratification and staging. Ninety seven PSMA PET-CT studies were re analysed for tumor node metastases (TNM) staging and risk stratification of lymphatic and distant metastases proportion. The histopathology of 23/97 patients was available as gold standard. Chi-square test was used for proportion comparison. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), over-estimation, under-estimation and correct-estimation of T and N stages were calculated. Cohen's kappa coefficient (k) was derived for inter-rater agreement. Lymphic or distant metastases detection on PSMA PET/CT increased significantly with increase in risk category. PSMA PET/CT sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for extra prostatic extension (EPE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) and lymphatic metastases were 63.16%, 100%, 100%, 36.36% & 55%, 100%, 100%, 25% and 65.62%, 99.31%, 87.50%, 97.53%, respectively. Cohen's kappa coefficient showed substantial agreement between PSMA PET/CT and histopathological lymphic metastases (κ 0.734) however, it was just in fair agreement (κ 0.277) with T stage. PSMA PET/CT over-estimated, under-estimated and correct-estimated T and N stages in 8.71%, 39.13%, 52.17% and 8.71%, 4.35%, 86.96% cases, respectively. We found that PSMA PET/CT has potential for initial risk stratifications with reasonable correct estimation for N stage. However, it can underestimate T stage. Hence, we suggest that PSMA PET/CT should be used for staging and initial risk stratification of PC as one-stop-shop with regional MRI in surgically resectable cases.

Lessons from the Johns Hopkins Multi-Disciplinary Venous Thromboembolism (VTE) Prevention Collaborative

PubMed Central

Streiff, Michael B; Carolan, Howard T; Hobson, Deborah B; Kraus, Peggy S; Holzmueller, Christine G; Demski, Renee; Lau, Brandyn D; Biscup-Horn, Paula; Pronovost, Peter J

2012-01-01

Problem Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common cause of potentially preventable mortality, morbidity, and increased medical costs. Risk-appropriate prophylaxis can prevent most VTE events, but only a small fraction of patients at risk receive this treatment. Design Prospective quality improvement programme. Setting Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Strategies for change A multidisciplinary team established a VTE Prevention Collaborative in 2005. The collaborative applied the four step TRIP (translating research into practice) model to develop and implement a mandatory clinical decision support tool for VTE risk stratification and risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis for all hospitalised adult patients. Initially, paper based VTE order sets were implemented, which were then converted into 16 specialty-specific, mandatory, computerised, clinical decision support modules. Key measures for improvement VTE risk stratification within 24 hours of hospital admission and provision of risk-appropriate, evidence based VTE prophylaxis. Effects of change The VTE team was able to increase VTE risk assessment and ordering of risk-appropriate prophylaxis with paper based order sets to a limited extent, but achieved higher compliance with a computerised clinical decision support tool and the data feedback which it enabled. Risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis increased from 26% to 80% for surgical patients and from 25% to 92% for medical patients in 2011. Lessons learnt A computerised clinical decision support tool can increase VTE risk stratification and risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis among hospitalised adult patients admitted to a large urban academic medical centre. It is important to ensure the tool is part of the clinician’s normal workflow, is mandatory (computerised forcing function), and offers the requisite modules needed for every clinical specialty. PMID:22718994

Initial clinical validation of Health Heritage, a patient-facing tool for personal and family history collection and cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Baumgart, Leigh A; Postula, Kristen J Vogel; Knaus, William A

2016-04-01

Personal and family health histories remain important independent risk factors for cancer; however they are currently not being well collected or used effectively. Health Heritage was designed to address this need. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of Health Heritage to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to accurately stratify cancer risk. A retrospective chart review was conducted on 100 random patients seen at an adult genetics clinic presenting with concern for an inherited predisposition to cancer. Relevant personal and family history obtained from the patients' medical records was entered into Health Heritage. Recommendations by Health Heritage were compared to national guidelines of eligibility for genetic evaluation. Agreement between Health Heritage referral for genetic evaluation and guideline eligibility for genetic evaluation was 97% (sensitivity 98% and specificity 88%). Risk stratification for cancer was also compared between Health Heritage and those documented by a geneticist. For patients at increased risk for breast, ovarian, or colorectal cancer as determined by the geneticist, risk stratification by Health Heritage agreed 90, 93, and 75%, respectively. Discordances in risk stratification were attributed to both complex situations better handled by the geneticist and Health Heritage's adherence to incorporating all information into its algorithms. Health Heritage is a clinically valid tool to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to encourage them to confirm the assessment and management recommendations with cancer genetic experts. Health Heritage also provides an estimate of cancer risk that is complementary to a genetics team.

[Comparison of the present and previously used protocol of risk stratification in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia].

PubMed

Glodkowska, Eliza; Bialas, Agnieszka; Jackowska, Teresa

2007-01-01

Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is one of the most common cancers in children. In Poland, since November 2002 a new protocol of risk stratification has been recommended for assessment of risk factors and for choosing therapy regimens. assessment of accuracy of protocol ALL-IC 2002 in comparison to previously used risk stratification protocols. ALL was diagnosed in 100 children (44 girls, 56 boys; 1-18 years of age) in the Department of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology, Warsaw Medical University, over the period from November 2002 to November 2006. According to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol the patients were divided into three risk groups: SR-standard, IR-intermediate and HR-high. The stratification was by age, leukocyte count, cytogenetic changes, early response to prednisone therapy and bone marrow remission. In the previously used risk stratification protocols-BFM-90, only hepatosplenomegaly and the number of blasts in peripheral blood (PB) were considered, and the patients were divided into three risk groups: low (LRG<0.8), medium (MRG) and high (HRG>1.2). out of the 100 patients qualified for treatment regimens according to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol, 97 entered remission, 11 died and 3 had a relapse. Under the ALL-IC 2002 protocol these children were stratified into the following groups: SR-31%, IR-44% and HR-25%. In the previously used stratification, there would be 26% children in low, 46% in the medium and 28% in the high risk group. According to the BFM-90 protocol 18/31 (58%) and 16/44 (36%) patients from the SR and IR groups respectively would be given more intensive treatment. On the other hand 11/44 (25%) and 14/25 (56%) patients from the IR and HR groups respectively would be given less intensive treatment. 1. ALL-IC 2002 protocol in comparison with the previously used protocol BFM-90, changes the qualification of children with ALL for the SR, IR and HR risk groups. This is linked to basic change of treatment protocol, adequate to severity of disease. 2. Children with ALL qualified according to protocol BFM-90 for moderate risk group (IR) constitute a mixed group in the ALL-IC 2002 classification. Part of the children was moved to the standard risk group (SR), part to high risk group (HR), and the rest remains in the intermediate risk category (IR). 3. Further studies are needed on stratification validity according to ALL-IL 2002 and on the need of further modification (eg assessment of additional factors) in order to decide on the best treatment, adequate to severity of disease.

Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L.; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

2015-01-01

Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, e.g., inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in AAA morbidity and mortality. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) magnetic resonance imaging are two novel approaches to AAA imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (e.g., integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of AAA and show great potential for clinical translation. PMID:26763279

Prostate cancer: predicting high-risk prostate cancer-a novel stratification tool.

PubMed

Buck, Jessica; Chughtai, Bilal

2014-05-01

Currently, numerous systems exist for the identification of high-risk prostate cancer, but few of these systems can guide treatment strategies. A new stratification tool that uses common diagnostic factors can help to predict outcomes after radical prostatectomy. The tool aids physicians in the identification of appropriate candidates for aggressive, local treatment.

Unification of favourable intermediate-, unfavourable intermediate-, and very high-risk stratification criteria for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Zumsteg, Zachary S; Zelefsky, Michael J; Woo, Kaitlin M; Spratt, Daniel E; Kollmeier, Marisa A; McBride, Sean; Pei, Xin; Sandler, Howard M; Zhang, Zhigang

2017-11-01

To improve on the existing risk-stratification systems for prostate cancer. This was a retrospective investigation including 2 248 patients undergoing dose-escalated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) at a single institution. We separated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) intermediate-risk prostate cancer into 'favourable' and 'unfavourable' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC), and number of NCCN intermediate-risk factors. Similarly, NCCN high-risk prostate cancer was stratified into 'standard' and 'very high-risk' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, PPBC, number of NCCN high-risk factors, and stage T3b-T4 disease. Patients with unfavourable-intermediate-risk (UIR) prostate cancer had significantly inferior prostate-specific antigen relapse-free survival (PSA-RFS, P < 0.001), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS, P < 0.001), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM, P < 0.001), and overall survival (OS, P < 0.001) compared with patients with favourable-intermediate-risk (FIR) prostate cancer. Similarly, patients with very high-risk (VHR) prostate cancer had significantly worse PSA-RFS (P < 0.001), DMFS (P < 0.001), and PCSM (P = 0.001) compared with patients with standard high-risk (SHR) prostate cancer. Moreover, patients with FIR and low-risk prostate cancer had similar outcomes, as did patients with UIR and SHR prostate cancer. Consequently, we propose the following risk-stratification system: Group 1, low risk and FIR; Group 2, UIR and SHR; and Group 3, VHR. These groups have markedly different outcomes, with 8-year distant metastasis rates of 3%, 9%, and 29% (P < 0.001) for Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and 8-year PCSM of 1%, 4%, and 13% (P < 0.001) after EBRT. This modified stratification system was significantly more accurate than the three-tiered NCCN system currently in clinical use for all outcomes. Modifying the NCCN risk-stratification system to group FIR with low-risk patients and UIR with SHR patients, results in modestly improved prediction of outcomes, potentially allowing better personalisation of therapeutic recommendations. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Urothelial cancer of the upper urinary tract: emerging biomarkers and integrative models for risk stratification.

PubMed

Mathieu, Romain; Vartolomei, Mihai D; Mbeutcha, Aurélie; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Briganti, Alberto; Roupret, Morgan; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2016-08-01

The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current biomarkers and risk stratification models in urothelial cancer of the upper urinary tract (UTUC). A non-systematic Medline/PubMed literature search was performed using the terms "biomarkers", "preoperative models", "postoperative models", "risk stratification", together with "upper tract urothelial carcinoma". Original articles published between January 2003 and August 2015 were included based on their clinical relevance. Additional references were collected by cross referencing the bibliography of the selected articles. Various promising predictive and prognostic biomarkers have been identified in UTUC thanks to the increasing knowledge of the different biological pathways involved in UTUC tumorigenesis. These biomarkers may help identify tumors with aggressive biology and worse outcomes. Current tools aim at predicting muscle invasive or non-organ confined disease, renal failure after radical nephroureterectomy and survival outcomes. These models are still mainly based on imaging and clinicopathological feature and none has integrated biomarkers. Risk stratification in UTUC is still suboptimal, especially in the preoperative setting due to current limitations in staging and grading. Identification of novel biomarkers and external validation of current prognostic models may help improve risk stratification to allow evidence-based counselling for kidney-sparing approaches, perioperative chemotherapy and/or risk-based surveillance. Despite growing understanding of the biology underlying UTUC, management of this disease remains difficult due to the lack of validated biomarkers and the limitations of current predictive and prognostic tools. Further efforts and collaborations are necessaryry to allow their integration in daily practice.

Predicting the risk of sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Lerma, Claudia; Glass, Leon

2016-05-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the result of a change of cardiac activity from normal (typically sinus) rhythm to a rhythm that does not pump adequate blood to the brain. The most common rhythms leading to SCD are ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF). These result from an accelerated ventricular pacemaker or ventricular reentrant waves. Despite significant efforts to develop accurate predictors for the risk of SCD, current methods for risk stratification still need to be improved. In this article we briefly review current approaches to risk stratification. Then we discuss the mathematical basis for dynamical transitions (called bifurcations) that may lead to VT and VF. One mechanism for transition to VT or VF involves a perturbation by a premature ventricular complex (PVC) during sinus rhythm. We describe the main mechanisms of PVCs (reentry, independent pacemakers and abnormal depolarizations). An emerging approach to risk stratification for SCD involves the development of individualized dynamical models of a patient based on measured anatomy and physiology. Careful analysis and modelling of dynamics of ventricular arrhythmia on an individual basis will be essential in order to improve risk stratification for SCD and to lay a foundation for personalized (precision) medicine in cardiology. © 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2015 The Physiological Society.

Risk stratification for sudden death in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Cadrin-Tourigny, Julia; Tadros, Rafik; Talajic, Mario; Rivard, Lena; Abadir, Sylvia; Khairy, Paul

2015-06-01

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC) is an uncommon but increasingly recognized inherited cardiomyopathy that is associated with malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death, particularly in young individuals. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is widely regarded as the only treatment modality with evidence to support improved survival in patients with ARVC and secondary prevention indications. In contrast, there is no universally accepted risk stratification scheme to guide ICD therapy for primary prevention against sudden cardiac death. Potential benefits must be weighed against the considerable risks of complications and inappropriate shocks in this young patient population. This article tackles the challenges of risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in ARVC and critically appraises available evidence for various proposed risk factors. The authors' over-arching objective is to provide the clinician with evidence-based guidance to inform decisions regarding the selection of appropriate candidates with ARVC for ICD therapy.

Role of imaging in evaluation of sudden cardiac death risk in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Geske, Jeffrey B; Ommen, Steve R

2015-09-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common heritable cardiomyopathy and is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD) - an uncommon but devastating clinical outcome. This review is designed to assess the role of imaging in established risk factor assessment and its role in emerging SCD risk stratification. Recent publications have highlighted the crucial role of imaging in HCM SCD risk stratification. Left ventricular hypertrophy assessment remains the key imaging determinant of risk. Data continue to emerge on the role of systolic dysfunction, apical aneurysms, left atrial enlargement and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction as markers of risk. Quantitative assessment of delayed myocardial enhancement and T1 mapping on cardiac MRI continue to evolve. Recent multicenter trials have allowed multivariate SCD risk assessment in large HCM cohorts. Given aggregate risk with presence of multiple risk factors, a single parameter should not be used in isolation to determine implantable cardiac defibrillator candidacy. Use of all available imaging data, including cardiac magnetic resonance tissue characterization, allows a comprehensive approach to SCD stratification and implantable cardiac defibrillator decision-making.

Syncope: risk stratification and clinical decision making.

PubMed

Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen

2014-04-01

Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.

The role of non-invasive cardiovascular imaging in the assessment of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: where we are and where we need to be.

PubMed

Fent, Graham J; Greenwood, John P; Plein, Sven; Buch, Maya H

2017-07-01

This review assesses the risk assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and how non-invasive imaging modalities may improve risk stratification in future. RA is common and patients are at greater risk of CVD than the general population. Cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is recommended in European guidelines for patients at high and very high CV risk in order to commence preventative therapy. Ideally, such an assessment should be carried out immediately after diagnosis and as part of ongoing long-term patient care in order to improve patient outcomes. The risk profile in RA is different from the general population and is not well estimated using conventional clinical CVD risk algorithms, particularly in patients estimated as intermediate CVD risk. Non-invasive imaging techniques may therefore play an important role in improving risk assessment. However, there are currently very limited prognostic data specific to patients with RA to guide clinicians in risk stratification using these imaging techniques. RA is associated with increased risk of CV mortality, mainly attributable to atherosclerotic disease, though in addition, RA is associated with many other disease processes which further contribute to increased CV mortality. There is reasonable evidence for using carotid ultrasound in patients estimated to be at intermediate risk of CV mortality using clinical CVD risk algorithms. Newer imaging techniques such as cardiovascular magnetic resonance and CT offer the potential to improve risk stratification further; however, longitudinal data with hard CVD outcomes are currently lacking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Pretreatment risk stratification of feeding tube use in patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Anderson, Nigel J; Jackson, James E; Smith, Jennifer G; Wada, Morikatsu; Schneider, Michal; Poulsen, Michael; Rolfo, Maureen; Fahandej, Maziar; Gan, Hui; Joon, Daryl Lim; Khoo, Vincent

2018-05-13

The purpose of this study was to establish a risk stratification model for feeding tube use in patients who undergo intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancers. One hundred thirty-nine patients treated with definitive IMRT (+/- concurrent chemotherapy) for head and neck mucosal cancers were included in this study. Patients were recommended a prophylactic feeding tube and followed up by a dietician for at least 8 weeks postradiotherapy (post-RT). Potential prognostic factors were analyzed for risk and duration of feeding tube use for at least 25% of dietary requirements. Many variables had significant effects on risk and/or duration of feeding tube use in univariate analyses. Subsequent multivariable analysis showed that T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy were the best independent significant predictors of higher risk and duration of feeding tube use, respectively, in oral cavity, pharyngeal, and supraglottic primaries. In patients treated with definitive IMRT, T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy can potentially stratify patients into 4 risk groups for developing severe dysphagia requiring feeding tube use. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Women.

PubMed

Saeed, Anum; Kampangkaew, June; Nambi, Vijay

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women worldwide. The pathophysiological basis of cardiovascular health among men and women is not identical. This leads to variable cardiovascular responses to stimulus and presentation of cardiovascular disease symptoms, both of which can have a direct effect on treatment outcomes. Traditionally, the enrollment of women in clinical trials has been minimal, resulting in a lack of gender-specific analysis of clinical trial data and, therefore, the absence of concrete risk factor assessment among women. However, scientific progress in the past decade has identified a spectrum of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases that may be specific to women. These risk factors, which may include menopause, hypertensive disease of pregnancy, and depression, confer additional risk in women besides the traditional risk factors. The current state of knowledge and awareness about these risk factors is suboptimal at this time. Therefore, although the treatment of cardiovascular diseases is similar in both genders, appropriate risk stratification may be limited in women compared to men. The purpose of this review is to describe the recent trends in identifying female-specific risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, their utility in risk stratification, and current pharmacological options for women with regard to cardiovascular disease prevention.

Delayed risk stratification, to include the response to initial treatment (surgery and radioiodine ablation), has better outcome predictivity in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

PubMed

Castagna, Maria Grazia; Maino, Fabio; Cipri, Claudia; Belardini, Valentina; Theodoropoulou, Alexandra; Cevenini, Gabriele; Pacini, Furio

2011-09-01

After initial treatment, differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients are stratified as low and high risk based on clinical/pathological features. Recently, a risk stratification based on additional clinical data accumulated during follow-up has been proposed. To evaluate the predictive value of delayed risk stratification (DRS) obtained at the time of the first diagnostic control (8-12 months after initial treatment). We reviewed 512 patients with DTC whose risk assessment was initially defined according to the American (ATA) and European Thyroid Association (ETA) guidelines. At the time of the first control, 8-12 months after initial treatment, patients were re-stratified according to their clinical status: DRS. Using DRS, about 50% of ATA/ETA intermediate/high-risk patients moved to DRS low-risk category, while about 10% of ATA/ETA low-risk patients moved to DRS high-risk category. The ability of the DRS to predict the final outcome was superior to that of ATA and ETA. Positive and negative predictive values for both ATA (39.2 and 90.6% respectively) and ETA (38.4 and 91.3% respectively) were significantly lower than that observed with the DRS (72.8 and 96.3% respectively, P<0.05). The observed variance in predicting final outcome was 25.4% for ATA, 19.1% for ETA, and 62.1% for DRS. Delaying the risk stratification of DTC patients at a time when the response to surgery and radioiodine ablation is evident allows to better define individual risk and to better modulate the subsequent follow-up.

Updated systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of risk prediction rules in children and young people with febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Phillips, Robert S; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Alexander, Sarah; Sung, Lillian

2012-01-01

Febrile neutropenia is a common and potentially life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer, which has increasingly been subject to targeted treatment based on clinical risk stratification. Our previous meta-analysis demonstrated 16 rules had been described and 2 of them subject to validation in more than one study. We aimed to advance our knowledge of evidence on the discriminatory ability and predictive accuracy of such risk stratification clinical decision rules (CDR) for children and young people with cancer by updating our systematic review. The review was conducted in accordance with Centre for Reviews and Dissemination methods, searching multiple electronic databases, using two independent reviewers, formal critical appraisal with QUADAS and meta-analysis with random effects models where appropriate. It was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42011001685. We found 9 new publications describing a further 7 new CDR, and validations of 7 rules. Six CDR have now been subject to testing across more than two data sets. Most validations demonstrated the rule to be less efficient than when initially proposed; geographical differences appeared to be one explanation for this. The use of clinical decision rules will require local validation before widespread use. Considerable uncertainty remains over the most effective rule to use in each population, and an ongoing individual-patient-data meta-analysis should develop and test a more reliable CDR to improve stratification and optimise therapy. Despite current challenges, we believe it will be possible to define an internationally effective CDR to harmonise the treatment of children with febrile neutropenia.

Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Performance of Risk Prediction Rules in Children and Young People with Febrile Neutropenia

PubMed Central

Phillips, Robert S.; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Alexander, Sarah; Sung, Lillian

2012-01-01

Introduction Febrile neutropenia is a common and potentially life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer, which has increasingly been subject to targeted treatment based on clinical risk stratification. Our previous meta-analysis demonstrated 16 rules had been described and 2 of them subject to validation in more than one study. We aimed to advance our knowledge of evidence on the discriminatory ability and predictive accuracy of such risk stratification clinical decision rules (CDR) for children and young people with cancer by updating our systematic review. Methods The review was conducted in accordance with Centre for Reviews and Dissemination methods, searching multiple electronic databases, using two independent reviewers, formal critical appraisal with QUADAS and meta-analysis with random effects models where appropriate. It was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42011001685. Results We found 9 new publications describing a further 7 new CDR, and validations of 7 rules. Six CDR have now been subject to testing across more than two data sets. Most validations demonstrated the rule to be less efficient than when initially proposed; geographical differences appeared to be one explanation for this. Conclusion The use of clinical decision rules will require local validation before widespread use. Considerable uncertainty remains over the most effective rule to use in each population, and an ongoing individual-patient-data meta-analysis should develop and test a more reliable CDR to improve stratification and optimise therapy. Despite current challenges, we believe it will be possible to define an internationally effective CDR to harmonise the treatment of children with febrile neutropenia. PMID:22693615

Developing and validating a novel metabolic tumor volume risk stratification system for supplementing non-small cell lung cancer staging.

PubMed

Pu, Yonglin; Zhang, James X; Liu, Haiyan; Appelbaum, Daniel; Meng, Jianfeng; Penney, Bill C

2018-06-07

We hypothesized that whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb) could be used to supplement non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) staging due to its independent prognostic value. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a novel MTVwb risk stratification system to supplement NSCLC staging. We performed an IRB-approved retrospective review of 935 patients with NSCLC and FDG-avid tumor divided into modeling and validation cohorts based on the type of PET/CT scanner used for imaging. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted by dividing the patient population into two randomized cohorts. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed to determine the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratification system. The cut-off values (10.0, 53.4 and 155.0 mL) between the MTVwb quartiles of the modeling cohort were applied to both the modeling and validation cohorts to determine each patient's MTVwb risk stratum. The survival analyses showed that a lower MTVwb risk stratum was associated with better overall survival (all p < 0.01), independent of TNM stage together with other clinical prognostic factors, and the discriminatory power of the MTVwb risk stratification system, as measured by Gönen and Heller's concordance index, was not significantly different from that of TNM stage in both cohorts. Also, the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratum was robust in the two randomized cohorts. The discordance rate between the MTVwb risk stratum and TNM stage or substage was 45.1% in the modeling cohort and 50.3% in the validation cohort. This study developed and validated a novel MTVwb risk stratification system, which has prognostic value independent of the TNM stage and other clinical prognostic factors in NSCLC, suggesting that it could be used for further NSCLC pretreatment assessment and for refining treatment decisions in individual patients.

Correction of Population Stratification in Large Multi-Ethnic Association Studies

PubMed Central

Serre, David; Montpetit, Alexandre; Paré, Guillaume; Engert, James C.; Yusuf, Salim; Keavney, Bernard; Hudson, Thomas J.; Anand, Sonia

2008-01-01

Background The vast majority of genetic risk factors for complex diseases have, taken individually, a small effect on the end phenotype. Population-based association studies therefore need very large sample sizes to detect significant differences between affected and non-affected individuals. Including thousands of affected individuals in a study requires recruitment in numerous centers, possibly from different geographic regions. Unfortunately such a recruitment strategy is likely to complicate the study design and to generate concerns regarding population stratification. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed 9,751 individuals representing three main ethnic groups - Europeans, Arabs and South Asians - that had been enrolled from 154 centers involving 52 countries for a global case/control study of acute myocardial infarction. All individuals were genotyped at 103 candidate genes using 1,536 SNPs selected with a tagging strategy that captures most of the genetic diversity in different populations. We show that relying solely on self-reported ethnicity is not sufficient to exclude population stratification and we present additional methods to identify and correct for stratification. Conclusions/Significance Our results highlight the importance of carefully addressing population stratification and of carefully “cleaning” the sample prior to analyses to obtain stronger signals of association and to avoid spurious results. PMID:18196181

Comparison of Plasma and Urine Biomarker Performance in Acute Kidney Injury

PubMed Central

Schley, Gunnar; Köberle, Carmen; Manuilova, Ekaterina; Rutz, Sandra; Forster, Christian; Weyand, Michael; Formentini, Ivan; Kientsch-Engel, Rosemarie; Eckardt, Kai-Uwe; Willam, Carsten

2015-01-01

Background New renal biomarkers measured in urine promise to increase specificity for risk stratification and early diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI) but concomitantly may be altered by urine concentration effects and chronic renal insufficiency. This study therefore directly compared the performance of AKI biomarkers in urine and plasma. Methods This single-center, prospective cohort study included 110 unselected adults undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass between 2009 and 2010. Plasma and/or urine concentrations of creatinine, cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), liver fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP), kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM1), and albumin as well as 15 additional biomarkers in plasma and urine were measured during the perioperative period. The primary outcome was AKI defined by AKIN serum creatinine criteria within 72 hours after surgery. Results Biomarkers in plasma showed markedly better discriminative performance for preoperative risk stratification and early postoperative (within 24h after surgery) detection of AKI than urine biomarkers. Discriminative power of urine biomarkers improved when concentrations were normalized to urinary creatinine, but urine biomarkers had still lower AUC values than plasma biomarkers. Best diagnostic performance 4h after surgery had plasma NGAL (AUC 0.83), cystatin C (0.76), MIG (0.74), and L-FAPB (0.73). Combinations of multiple biomarkers did not improve their diagnostic power. Preoperative clinical scoring systems (EuroSCORE and Cleveland Clinic Foundation Score) predicted the risk for AKI (AUC 0.76 and 0.71) and were not inferior to biomarkers. Preexisting chronic kidney disease limited the diagnostic performance of both plasma and urine biomarkers. Conclusions In our cohort plasma biomarkers had higher discriminative power for risk stratification and early diagnosis of AKI than urine biomarkers. For preoperative risk stratification of AKI clinical models showed similar discriminative performance to biomarkers. The discriminative performance of both plasma and urine biomarkers was reduced by preexisting chronic kidney disease. PMID:26669323

Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A.; Williams, Scott G.

2012-07-15

Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleasonmore » score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network classification. Conclusions: The PPC is an independent and powerful predictor of clinical outcomes of prostate cancer after RT. A risk model replacing T stage with the PPC to reduce subjectivity demonstrated potentially improved stratification.« less

Modern risk stratification in coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Ginghina, C; Bejan, I; Ceck, C D

2011-11-14

The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information.

CoAIMs: A Cost-Effective Panel of Ancestry Informative Markers for Determining Continental Origins

PubMed Central

Londin, Eric R.; Keller, Margaret A.; Maista, Cathleen; Smith, Gretchen; Mamounas, Laura A.; Zhang, Ran; Madore, Steven J.; Gwinn, Katrina; Corriveau, Roderick A.

2010-01-01

Background Genetic ancestry is known to impact outcomes of genotype-phenotype studies that are designed to identify risk for common diseases in human populations. Failure to control for population stratification due to genetic ancestry can significantly confound results of disease association studies. Moreover, ancestry is a critical factor in assessing lifetime risk of disease, and can play an important role in optimizing treatment. As modern medicine moves towards using personal genetic information for clinical applications, it is important to determine genetic ancestry in an accurate, cost-effective and efficient manner. Self-identified race is a common method used to track and control for population stratification; however, social constructs of race are not necessarily informative for genetic applications. The use of ancestry informative markers (AIMs) is a more accurate method for determining genetic ancestry for the purposes of population stratification. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we introduce a novel panel of 36 microsatellite (MSAT) AIMs that determines continental admixture proportions. This panel, which we have named Continental Ancestry Informative Markers or CoAIMs, consists of MSAT AIMs that were chosen based upon their measure of genetic variance (Fst), allele frequencies and their suitability for efficient genotyping. Genotype analysis using CoAIMs along with a Bayesian clustering method (STRUCTURE) is able to discern continental origins including Europe/Middle East (Caucasians), East Asia, Africa, Native America, and Oceania. In addition to determining continental ancestry for individuals without significant admixture, we applied CoAIMs to ascertain admixture proportions of individuals of self declared race. Conclusion/Significance CoAIMs can be used to efficiently and effectively determine continental admixture proportions in a sample set. The CoAIMs panel is a valuable resource for genetic researchers performing case-control genetic association studies, as it can control for the confounding effects of population stratification. The MSAT-based approach used here has potential for broad applicability as a cost effective tool toward determining admixture proportions. PMID:20976178

Wall-based measurement features provides an improved IVUS coronary artery risk assessment when fused with plaque texture-based features during machine learning paradigm.

PubMed

Banchhor, Sumit K; Londhe, Narendra D; Araki, Tadashi; Saba, Luca; Radeva, Petia; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

2017-12-01

Planning of percutaneous interventional procedures involves a pre-screening and risk stratification of the coronary artery disease. Current screening tools use stand-alone plaque texture-based features and therefore lack the ability to stratify the risk. This IRB approved study presents a novel strategy for coronary artery disease risk stratification using an amalgamation of IVUS plaque texture-based and wall-based measurement features. Due to common genetic plaque makeup, carotid plaque burden was chosen as a gold standard for risk labels during training-phase of machine learning (ML) paradigm. Cross-validation protocol was adopted to compute the accuracy of the ML framework. A set of 59 plaque texture-based features was padded with six wall-based measurement features to show the improvement in stratification accuracy. The ML system was executed using principle component analysis-based framework for dimensionality reduction and uses support vector machine classifier for training and testing-phases. The ML system produced a stratification accuracy of 91.28%, demonstrating an improvement of 5.69% when wall-based measurement features were combined with plaque texture-based features. The fused system showed an improvement in mean sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and area under the curve by: 6.39%, 4.59%, 3.31% and 5.48%, respectively when compared to the stand-alone system. While meeting the stability criteria of 5%, the ML system also showed a high average feature retaining power and mean reliability of 89.32% and 98.24%, respectively. The ML system showed an improvement in risk stratification accuracy when the wall-based measurement features were fused with the plaque texture-based features. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Peri-procedural risk stratification and management of patients with Williams syndrome.

PubMed

Collins Ii, R Thomas; Collins, Margaret G; Schmitz, Michael L; Hamrick, Justin T

2017-03-01

Williams syndrome (WS) is a congenital, multisystem disorder affecting the cardiovascular, connective tissue, and central nervous systems in 1 in 10 000 live births. Cardiovascular involvement is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with WS, and noninvasive and invasive procedures are common. Sudden cardiovascular collapse in patients with WS is a well-known phenomenon, especially in the peri-procedural period. Detailed guidelines for peri-procedural management of patients with WS are limited. The goal of this review is to provide thoughtful, safe and effective management strategies for the peri-procedural care of patients with WS with careful consideration of hemodynamic impacts of anesthetic strategies. In addition, an expanded risk stratification system for anesthetic administration is provided. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century

PubMed Central

Perry, Matthew D.; Abi‐Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean‐Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C.; Knollmann, Bjorn C.; Mirams, Gary R.; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I.

2016-01-01

Abstract Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ‐level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well‐developed case of acquired or drug‐induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. PMID:27060987

Introducing the reporting system for thyroid fine-needle aspiration cytology according to the new guidelines of the Japan Thyroid Association.

PubMed

Kakudo, Kennichi; Kameyama, Kaori; Miyauchi, Akira; Nakamura, Hirotoshi

2014-01-01

The Japan Thyroid Association (JTA) recently published new guidelines for clinical management of thyroid nodules. This paper introduces their diagnostic system for reporting thyroid fine-needle aspiration cytology. There are two points where the new reporting system that differs from existing internationally-accepted ones. The first is the subclassification of the so-called indeterminate category, which is divided into 'follicular neoplasm' and 'others'. The second is the subclassification of follicular neoplasm into 'favor benign', 'borderline' and 'favor malignant'. It is characterized by self-explanatory terminologies as to histological type and probability of malignancy to establish further risk stratification as well as to facilitate communication between clinicians and cytopathologists. The different treatment strategies adopted for thyroid nodules is deeply influenced by the particular diagnostic system used for thyroid cytology. In Western countries all patients with follicular neoplasms are advised to have immediate diagnostic surgery while patients in Japan often undergo further risk stratification without immediate surgery. The JTA diagnostic system of reporting thyroid cytology is designed for further risk stratification of patients with indeterminate cytology. If a surgeon applies diagnostic lobectomy to all patients with follicular neoplasm unselectively, this subclassification of follicular neoplasm has no practical meaning and is unnecessary. Cytological risk stratification of follicular neoplasms is optional and cytopathologists can choose either a simple 6-tier system without stratification of follicular neoplasm or a complicated 8-tier system depending on their experience in thyroid cytology and clinical management.

Analysis of agreement between cardiac risk stratification protocols applied to participants of a center for cardiac rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Santos, Ana A. S.; Silva, Anne K. F.; Vanderlei, Franciele M.; Christofaro, Diego G. D.; Gonçalves, Aline F. L.; Vanderlei, Luiz C. M.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background Cardiac risk stratification is related to the risk of the occurrence of events induced by exercise. Despite the existence of several protocols to calculate risk stratification, studies indicating that there is similarity between these protocols are still unknown. Objective To evaluate the agreement between the existing protocols on cardiac risk rating in cardiac patients. Method The records of 50 patients from a cardiac rehabilitation program were analyzed, from which the following information was extracted: age, sex, weight, height, clinical diagnosis, medical history, risk factors, associated diseases, and the results from the most recent laboratory and complementary tests performed. This information was used for risk stratification of the patients in the protocols of the American College of Sports Medicine, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, the protocol designed by Frederic J. Pashkow, the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, the Société Française de Cardiologie, and the Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and the analysis of agreement between the protocols was calculated using the Kappa coefficient. Differences were considered with a significance level of 5%. Results Of the 21 analyses of agreement, 12 were considered significant between the protocols used for risk classification, with nine classified as moderate and three as low. No agreements were classified as excellent. Different proportions were observed in each risk category, with significant differences between the protocols for all risk categories. Conclusion The agreements between the protocols were considered low and moderate and the risk proportions differed between protocols. PMID:27556385

Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Among White Women in the United States

PubMed Central

Maas, Paige; Barrdahl, Myrto; Joshi, Amit D.; Auer, Paul L.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Milne, Roger L.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Anderson, William F.; Check, David; Chattopadhyay, Subham; Baglietto, Laura; Berg, Christine D.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Cox, David G.; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Graubard, Barry I.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Hoover, Robert N.; Isaacs, Claudine; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, I-Min; Lindström, Sara; Overvad, Kim; Romieu, Isabelle; Sanchez, Maria-Jose; Southey, Melissa C.; Stram, Daniel O.; Tumino, Rosario; VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Willett, Walter C.; Zhang, Shumin; Buring, Julie E.; Canzian, Federico; Gapstur, Susan M.; Henderson, Brian E.; Hunter, David J.; Giles, Graham G; Prentice, Ross L.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Kraft, Peter; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE An improved model for risk stratification can be useful for guiding public health strategies of breast cancer prevention. OBJECTIVE To evaluate combined risk stratification utility of common low penetrant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and epidemiologic risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a total of 17 171 cases and 19 862 controls sampled from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) and 5879 women participating in the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a model for predicting absolute risk of breast cancer was developed combining information on individual level data on epidemiologic risk factors and 24 genotyped SNPs from prospective cohort studies, published estimate of odds ratios for 68 additional SNPs, population incidence rate from the National Cancer Institute-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry and data on risk factor distribution from nationally representative health survey. The model is used to project the distribution of absolute risk for the population of white women in the United States after adjustment for competing cause of mortality. EXPOSURES Single nucleotide polymorphisms, family history, anthropometric factors, menstrual and/or reproductive factors, and lifestyle factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Degree of stratification of absolute risk owing to nonmodifiable (SNPs, family history, height, and some components of menstrual and/or reproductive history) and modifiable factors (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], menopausal hormone therapy [MHT], alcohol, and smoking). RESULTS The average absolute risk for a 30-year-old white woman in the United States developing invasive breast cancer by age 80 years is 11.3%. A model that includes all risk factors provided a range of average absolute risk from 4.4% to 23.5% for women in the bottom and top deciles of the risk distribution, respectively. For women who were at the lowest and highest deciles of nonmodifiable risks, the 5th and 95th percentile range of the risk distribution associated with 4 modifiable factors was 2.9% to 5.0% and 15.5% to 25.0%, respectively. For women in the highest decile of risk owing to nonmodifiable factors, those who had low BMI, did not drink or smoke, and did not use MHT had risks comparable to an average woman in the general population. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This model for absolute risk of breast cancer including SNPs can provide stratification for the population of white women in the United States. The model can also identify subsets of the population at an elevated risk that would benefit most from risk-reduction strategies based on altering modifiable factors. The effectiveness of this model for individual risk communication needs further investigation. PMID:27228256

Plaque hemorrhage in carotid artery disease: pathogenesis, clinical and biomechanical considerations.

PubMed

Teng, Zhongzhao; Sadat, Umar; Brown, Adam J; Gillard, Jonathan H

2014-03-03

Stroke remains the most prevalent disabling illness today, with internal carotid artery luminal stenosis due to atheroma formation responsible for the majority of ischemic cerebrovascular events. Severity of luminal stenosis continues to dictate both patient risk stratification and the likelihood of surgical intervention. But there is growing evidence to suggest that plaque morphology may help improve pre-existing risk stratification criteria. Plaque components such a fibrous tissue, lipid rich necrotic core and calcium have been well investigated but plaque hemorrhage (PH) has been somewhat overlooked. In this review we discuss the pathogenesis of PH, its role in dictating plaque vulnerability, PH imaging techniques, marterial properties of atherosclerotic tissues, in particular, those obtained based on in vivo measurements and effect of PH in modulating local biomechanics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic Modifiers of Ovarian Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

samples from many countries. To account for population stratification, the genotyping data in combination with HapMap data (CEU, Yoruban, Han Chinese...Cambridge, we evaluated associations with both breast and ovarian cancer using a retrospective likelihood model. This accounts for the age extremes of...carriers we used a competing risk analysis that accounted for the effects on breast and ovarian cancer in parallel. In this competing risk analysis

Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps (1-2 cm) for surgical intervention with 18F-FDG PET/CT.

PubMed

Lee, Jaehoon; Yun, Mijin; Kim, Kyoung-Sik; Lee, Jong-Doo; Kim, Chun K

2012-03-01

We assessed the value of (18)F-FDG uptake in the gallbladder polyp (GP) in risk stratification for surgical intervention and the optimal cutoff level of the parameters derived from GP (18)F-FDG uptake for differentiating malignant from benign etiologies in a select, homogeneous group of patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs. Fifty patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs incidentally found on the CT portion of PET/CT were retrospectively analyzed. All patients had histologic diagnoses. GP (18)F-FDG activity was visually scored positive (≥liver) or negative (

A fast and cost-effective method for apolipoprotein E isotyping as an alternative to APOE genotyping for patient screening and stratification.

PubMed

Calero, Olga; García-Albert, Luis; Rodríguez-Martín, Andrés; Veiga, Sergio; Calero, Miguel

2018-04-13

Apolipoprotein E (apoE) is a 34 kDa glycoprotein involved in lipid metabolism. The human APOE gene encodes for three different apoE protein isoforms: E2, E3 and E4. The interest in apoE isoforms is high for epidemiological research, patient stratification and identification of those at increased risk for clinical trials and prevention. The isoform apoE4 is associated with increased risk for coronary heart and Alzheimer's diseases. This paper describes a method for specifically detecting the apoE4 isoform from biological fluids by taking advantage of the capacity of apoE to bind "specifically" to polystyrene surfaces as capture and a specific anti-apoE4 monoclonal antibody as reporter. Our results indicate that the apoE-polystyrene binding interaction is highly stable, resistant to detergents and acid and basic washes. The methodology here described is accurate, easily implementable, fast and cost-effective. Although at present, our technique is unable to discriminate homozygous APOE ε4/ε4 from APOE ε3/ε4 and ε2/ε4 heterozygous, it opens new avenues for the development of inexpensive, yet effective, tests for the detection of apoE4 for patients' stratification. Preliminary results indicated that this methodology is also adaptable into turbidimetric platforms, which make it a good candidate for clinical implementation through its translation to the clinical analysis routine.

Urban Poverty and Neighborhood Effects on Crime: Incorporating Spatial and Network Perspectives

PubMed Central

Graif, Corina; Gladfelter, Andrew S.; Matthews, Stephen A.

2015-01-01

Research on neighborhoods and crime is on a remarkable growth trajectory. In this article, we survey important recent developments in the scholarship on neighborhood effects and the spatial stratification of poverty and urban crime. We advance the case that, in understanding the impact of neighborhoods and poverty on crime, sociological and criminological research would benefit from expanding the analytical focus from residential neighborhoods to the network of neighborhoods individuals are exposed to during their daily routine activities. This perspective is supported by reemerging scholarship on activity spaces and macro-level research on inter-neighborhood connections. We highlight work indicating that non-residential contexts add variation in criminogenic exposure, which in turn influence offending behavior and victimization risk. Also, we draw on recent insights from research on gang violence, social and institutional connections, and spatial mismatch, and call for advancements in the scholarship on urban poverty that investigates the salience of inter-neighborhood connections in evaluating the spatial stratification of criminogenic risk for individuals and communities. PMID:27375773

Mortality risk stratification in severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients.

PubMed

Beliaev, A M; Marshall, R J; Smith, W; Windsor, J A

2012-03-01

The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to identify early risk factors of mortality and develop a mortality risk stratification instrument for severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. It has been shown that Jehovah's Witness patients with the Auckland Anaemia Mortality Risk Score (Auckland AMRS) of 0 to 3 had 4% mortality, Auckland AMRS 4 to 5 32%, Auckland AMRS 6 to 7 50% and Auckland AMRS 8 and above 83%. It is concluded that the Auckland AMRS predicts mortality of severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. © 2012 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

A Risk Stratification Model for Lung Cancer Based on Gene Coexpression Network and Deep Learning

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Risk stratification model for lung cancer with gene expression profile is of great interest. Instead of previous models based on individual prognostic genes, we aimed to develop a novel system-level risk stratification model for lung adenocarcinoma based on gene coexpression network. Using multiple microarray, gene coexpression network analysis was performed to identify survival-related networks. A deep learning based risk stratification model was constructed with representative genes of these networks. The model was validated in two test sets. Survival analysis was performed using the output of the model to evaluate whether it could predict patients' survival independent of clinicopathological variables. Five networks were significantly associated with patients' survival. Considering prognostic significance and representativeness, genes of the two survival-related networks were selected for input of the model. The output of the model was significantly associated with patients' survival in two test sets and training set (p < 0.00001, p < 0.0001 and p = 0.02 for training and test sets 1 and 2, resp.). In multivariate analyses, the model was associated with patients' prognosis independent of other clinicopathological features. Our study presents a new perspective on incorporating gene coexpression networks into the gene expression signature and clinical application of deep learning in genomic data science for prognosis prediction. PMID:29581968

Maximization of the usage of coronary CTA derived plaque information using a machine learning based algorithm to improve risk stratification; insights from the CONFIRM registry.

PubMed

van Rosendael, Alexander R; Maliakal, Gabriel; Kolli, Kranthi K; Beecy, Ashley; Al'Aref, Subhi J; Dwivedi, Aeshita; Singh, Gurpreet; Panday, Mohit; Kumar, Amit; Ma, Xiaoyue; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Andreini, Daniele; Bax, Jeroen J; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; DeLago, Augustin; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon A; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert L; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Gransar, Heidi; Lu, Yao; Jones, Erica C; Peña, Jessica M; Lin, Fay Y; Min, James K

Machine learning (ML) is a field in computer science that demonstrated to effectively integrate clinical and imaging data for the creation of prognostic scores. The current study investigated whether a ML score, incorporating only the 16 segment coronary tree information derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), provides enhanced risk stratification compared with current CCTA based risk scores. From the multi-center CONFIRM registry, patients were included with complete CCTA risk score information and ≥3 year follow-up for myocardial infarction and death (primary endpoint). Patients with prior coronary artery disease were excluded. Conventional CCTA risk scores (conventional CCTA approach, segment involvement score, duke prognostic index, segment stenosis score, and the Leaman risk score) and a score created using ML were compared for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Only 16 segment based coronary stenosis (0%, 1-24%, 25-49%, 50-69%, 70-99% and 100%) and composition (calcified, mixed and non-calcified plaque) were provided to the ML model. A boosted ensemble algorithm (extreme gradient boosting; XGBoost) was used and the entire data was randomly split into a training set (80%) and testing set (20%). First, tuned hyperparameters were used to generate a trained model from the training data set (80% of data). Second, the performance of this trained model was independently tested on the unseen test set (20% of data). In total, 8844 patients (mean age 58.0 ± 11.5 years, 57.7% male) were included. During a mean follow-up time of 4.6 ± 1.5 years, 609 events occurred (6.9%). No CAD was observed in 48.7% (3.5% event), non-obstructive CAD in 31.8% (6.8% event), and obstructive CAD in 19.5% (15.6% event). Discrimination of events as expressed by AUC was significantly better for the ML based approach (0.771) vs the other scores (ranging from 0.685 to 0.701), P < 0.001. Net reclassification improvement analysis showed that the improved risk stratification was the result of down-classification of risk among patients that did not experience events (non-events). A risk score created by a ML based algorithm, that utilizes standard 16 coronary segment stenosis and composition information derived from detailed CCTA reading, has greater prognostic accuracy than current CCTA integrated risk scores. These findings indicate that a ML based algorithm can improve the integration of CCTA derived plaque information to improve risk stratification. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Heinz Nixdorf Recall study and its potential impact on the adoption of atherosclerosis imaging in European primary prevention guidelines.

PubMed

Mahabadi, Amir A; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Dragano, Nico; Kälsch, Hagen; Bauer, Marcus; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund

2011-10-01

Non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) imaging of the heart enables noninvasive quantification of coronary artery calcification (CAC), a surrogate marker of the atherosclerotic burden in the coronary artery tree. Multiple studies have underlined the ability of CAC score for individual risk stratification and, accordingly, the American Heart Association recommended cardiac CT for risk assessment in individuals with an intermediate risk of cardiovascular events as measured by Framingham Risk Score. However, limitations in transcribing risk stratification algorithms based on American cohort studies into European populations have been acknowledged in the past. Moreover, data on implications for reclassification into higher- or lower-risk groups based on CAC scores were lacking. The Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study is a population-based cohort study that investigated the ability of CAC scoring in risk prediction for major cardiovascular events above and beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. According to Heinz Nixdorf Recall findings, CAC can be used for reclassification, especially in those in the intermediate-risk group, to advise on lifestyle changes for the reclassified low-risk category, or to implement intensive treatments for the reclassified high-risk individuals. This article discusses the present findings of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study with respect to the current literature, risk stratification algorithms, and current European guidelines for risk prediction.

Raynaud’s phenomenon and digital ischemia: a practical approach to risk stratification, diagnosis and management

PubMed Central

McMahan, Zsuzsanna H.; Wigley, Fredrick M.

2015-01-01

Digital ischemia is a painful and often disfiguring event. Such an ischemic event often leads to tissue loss and can significantly affect the patient’s quality of life. Digital ischemia can be secondary to a vasculopathy, vasculitis, embolic disease, trauma, or extrinsic vascular compression. It is an especially serious complication in patients with scleroderma. Risk stratification of patients with scleroderma at risk for digital ischemia is now possible with clinical assessment and autoantibody profiles. Because there are a variety of conditions that lead to digital ischemia, it is important to understand the pathophysiology underlying each ischemic presentation in order to target therapy appropriately. Significant progress has been made in the last two decades in defining the pathophysiological processes leading to digital ischemia in rheumatic diseases. In this article we review the risk stratification, diagnosis, and management of patients with digital ischemia and provide a practical approach to therapy, particularly in scleroderma. PMID:26523153

Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century.

PubMed

Hill, Adam P; Perry, Matthew D; Abi-Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C; Knollmann, Bjorn C; Mirams, Gary R; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I

2016-12-01

Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ-level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well-developed case of acquired or drug-induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Physiological Society.

Cardiovascular risk assessment: addition of CKD and race to the Framingham equation

PubMed Central

Drawz, Paul E.; Baraniuk, Sarah; Davis, Barry R.; Brown, Clinton D.; Colon, Pedro J.; Cujyet, Aloysius B.; Dart, Richard A.; Graumlich, James F.; Henriquez, Mario A.; Moloo, Jamaluddin; Sakalayen, Mohammed G.; Simmons, Debra L.; Stanford, Carol; Sweeney, Mary Ellen; Wong, Nathan D.; Rahman, Mahboob

2012-01-01

Background/Aims The value of the Framingham equation in predicting cardiovascular risk in African Americans and patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the addition of CKD and race to the Framingham equation improves risk stratification in hypertensive patients. Methods Participants in the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) were studied. Those randomized to doxazosin, age greater than 74 years, and those with a history of coronary heart disease (CHD) were excluded. Two risk stratification models were developed using Cox proportional hazards models in a two-thirds developmental sample. The first model included the traditional Framingham risk factors. The second model included the traditional risk factors plus CKD, defined by eGFR categories, and stratification by race (Black vs. Non-Black). The primary outcome was a composite of fatal CHD, nonfatal MI, coronary revascularization, and hospitalized angina. Results There were a total of 19,811 eligible subjects. In the validation cohort, there was no difference in C-statistics between the Framingham equation and the ALLHAT model including CKD and race. This was consistent across subgroups by race and gender and among those with CKD. One exception was among Non-Black women where the C-statistic was higher for the Framingham equation (0.68 vs 0.65, P=0.02). Additionally, net reclassification improvement was not significant for any subgroup based on race and gender, ranging from −5.5% to 4.4%. Conclusion The addition of CKD status and stratification by race does not improve risk prediction in high-risk hypertensive patients. PMID:23194494

Vertical Stratification of Soil Phosphorus as a Concern for Dissolved Phosphorus Runoff in the Lake Erie Basin.

PubMed

Baker, David B; Johnson, Laura T; Confesor, Remegio B; Crumrine, John P

2017-11-01

During the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) loading and concentrations to the lake have nearly doubled, while particulate phosphorus (PP) has remained relatively constant. One potential cause of increased DRP concentrations is P stratification, or the buildup of soil-test P (STP) in the upper soil layer (<5 cm). Stratification often accompanies no-till and mulch-till practices that reduce erosion and PP loading, practices that have been widely implemented throughout the Lake Erie Basin. To evaluate the extent of P stratification in the Sandusky Watershed, certified crop advisors were enlisted to collect stratified soil samples (0-5 or 0-2.5 cm) alongside their normal agronomic samples (0-20 cm) ( = 1758 fields). The mean STP level in the upper 2.5 cm was 55% higher than the mean of agronomic samples used for fertilizer recommendations. The amounts of stratification were highly variable and did not correlate with agronomic STPs (Spearman's = 0.039, = 0.178). Agronomic STP in 70% of the fields was within the buildup or maintenance ranges for corn ( L.) and soybeans [ (L.) Merr.] (0-46 mg kg Mehlich-3 P). The cumulative risks for DRP runoff from the large number of fields in the buildup and maintenance ranges exceeded the risks from fields above those ranges. Reducing stratification by a one-time soil inversion has the potential for larger and quicker reductions in DRP runoff risk than practices related to drawing down agronomic STP levels. Periodic soil inversion and mixing, targeted by stratified STP data, should be considered a viable practice to reduce DRP loading to Lake Erie. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Cytoplasmic expression of C-MYC protein is associated with risk stratification of mantle cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Gong, Yi; Zhang, Xi; Chen, Rui; Wei, Yan; Zou, Zhongmin; Chen, Xinghua

2017-01-01

To investigate the association of C-MYC protein expression and risk stratification in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), and to evaluate the utility of C-MYC protein as a prognostic biomarker in clinical practice. We conducted immunohistochemical staining of C-MYC, Programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1), CD8, Ki-67, p53 and SRY (sex determining region Y) -11 (SOX11) to investigate their expression in 64 patients with MCL. The staining results and other clinical data were evaluated for their roles in risk stratification of MCL cases using ANOVA, Chi-square, and Spearman's Rank correlation coefficient analysis. Immunohistochemical staining in our study indicated that SOX11, Ki-67 and p53 presented nuclear positivity of tumor cells, CD8 showed membrane positivity in infiltrating T lymphocytes while PD-L1 showed membrane and cytoplasmic positivity mainly in macrophage cells and little in tumor cells. We observed positive staining of C-MYC either in the nucleus or cytoplasm or in both subcellular locations. There were significant differences in cytoplasmic C-MYC expression, Ki-67 proliferative index of tumor cells, and CD8 positive tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (CD8+TIL) among three risk groups ( P  = 0.000, P  = 0.037 and P =0.020, respectively). However, no significant differences existed in the expression of nuclear C-MYC, SOX11, p53, and PD-L1 in MCL patients with low-, intermediate-, and high risks. In addition, patient age and serum LDH level were also significantly different among 3 groups of patients ( P  = 0.006 and P  = 0.000, respectively). Spearman's rank correlation coefficient analysis indicated that cytoplasmic C-MYC expression, Ki-67 index, age, WBC, as well as LDH level had significantly positive correlations with risk stratification ( P  = 0.000, 0.015, 0.000, 0.029 and 0.000, respectively), while CD8+TIL in tumor microenvironment negatively correlated with risk stratification of patients ( P  = 0.006). Patients with increased positive cytoplasmic expression of C-MYC protein and decreased CD8+TIL appeared to be associated with a poor response to chemotherapy, but the correlation was not statistically significant. Our study suggested that assessment of cytoplasmic C-MYC overexpression and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) by immunohistochemical staining might be helpful for MCL risk stratification and outcome prediction. However, large cohort studies of MCL patients with complete follow up are needed to validate our speculation.

Barrett’s oesophagus: Current controversies

PubMed Central

Amadi, Chidi; Gatenby, Piers

2017-01-01

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma is rapidly increasing in Western countries. This tumour frequently presents late in its course with metastatic disease and has a very poor prognosis. Barrett’s oesophagus is an acquired condition whereby the native squamous mucosa of the lower oesophagus is replaced by columnar epithelium following prolonged gastro-oesophageal reflux and is the recognised precursor lesion for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. There are multiple national and society guidelines regarding screening, surveillance and management of Barrett’s oesophagus, however all are limited regarding a clear evidence base for a well-demonstrated benefit and cost-effectiveness of surveillance, and robust risk stratification for patients to best use resources. Currently the accepted risk factors upon which surveillance intervals and interventions are based are Barrett’s segment length and histological interpretation of the systematic biopsies. Further patient risk factors including other demographic features, smoking, gender, obesity, ethnicity, patient age, biomarkers and endoscopic adjuncts remain under consideration and are discussed in full. Recent evidence has been published to support earlier endoscopic intervention by means of ablation of the metaplastic Barrett’s segment when the earliest signs of dysplasia are detected. Further work should concentrate on establishing better risk stratification and primary and secondary preventative strategies to reduce the risk of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus. PMID:28811703

Barrett's oesophagus: Current controversies.

PubMed

Amadi, Chidi; Gatenby, Piers

2017-07-28

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma is rapidly increasing in Western countries. This tumour frequently presents late in its course with metastatic disease and has a very poor prognosis. Barrett's oesophagus is an acquired condition whereby the native squamous mucosa of the lower oesophagus is replaced by columnar epithelium following prolonged gastro-oesophageal reflux and is the recognised precursor lesion for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. There are multiple national and society guidelines regarding screening, surveillance and management of Barrett's oesophagus, however all are limited regarding a clear evidence base for a well-demonstrated benefit and cost-effectiveness of surveillance, and robust risk stratification for patients to best use resources. Currently the accepted risk factors upon which surveillance intervals and interventions are based are Barrett's segment length and histological interpretation of the systematic biopsies. Further patient risk factors including other demographic features, smoking, gender, obesity, ethnicity, patient age, biomarkers and endoscopic adjuncts remain under consideration and are discussed in full. Recent evidence has been published to support earlier endoscopic intervention by means of ablation of the metaplastic Barrett's segment when the earliest signs of dysplasia are detected. Further work should concentrate on establishing better risk stratification and primary and secondary preventative strategies to reduce the risk of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus.

Lack of Effectiveness of Neutropenic Diet and Social Restrictions as Anti-Infective Measures in Children With Acute Myeloid Leukemia: An Analysis of the AML-BFM 2004 Trial

PubMed Central

Tramsen, Lars; Salzmann-Manrique, Emilia; Bochennek, Konrad; Klingebiel, Thomas; Reinhardt, Dirk; Creutzig, Ursula; Sung, Lillian

2016-01-01

Purpose Although nonpharmacologic anti-infective measures are widely used in children treated for acute myeloid leukemia (AML), there is little evidence of their effectiveness. Patients and Methods We analyzed infectious complications in children during intensive treatment of AML according to the AML-BFM 2004 trial and surveyed sites on institutional standards regarding recommended restrictions of social contacts (six items), pets (five items), and food (eight items). A scoring system was developed with a restriction score for each item. Multivariable Poisson regression adjusted for sex, age, weight group, risk stratification, and prophylactic antibiotics was used to estimate the impact of the restrictions on the incidence ratios of fever of unknown origin, bacteremia, pneumonia, and gastroenteritis. Results Data on recommendations of nonpharmacologic anti-infective measures and infectious complications were available in 339 patients treated in 37 institutions. Analyses did not demonstrate a significant benefit of any of the restrictions regarding food, social contacts, and pets on the risk of fever, bacteremia, pneumonia, and gastroenteritis. In contrast, age, weight group, risk stratification, and nonabsorbable antibiotics had some influence on infections complications. Conclusion The lack of effectiveness of dietary restrictions and restrictions regarding social contacts and pets should result in reconsideration of anti-infective policies. PMID:27269945

Lack of Effectiveness of Neutropenic Diet and Social Restrictions as Anti-Infective Measures in Children With Acute Myeloid Leukemia: An Analysis of the AML-BFM 2004 Trial.

PubMed

Tramsen, Lars; Salzmann-Manrique, Emilia; Bochennek, Konrad; Klingebiel, Thomas; Reinhardt, Dirk; Creutzig, Ursula; Sung, Lillian; Lehrnbecher, Thomas

2016-08-10

Although nonpharmacologic anti-infective measures are widely used in children treated for acute myeloid leukemia (AML), there is little evidence of their effectiveness. We analyzed infectious complications in children during intensive treatment of AML according to the AML-BFM 2004 trial and surveyed sites on institutional standards regarding recommended restrictions of social contacts (six items), pets (five items), and food (eight items). A scoring system was developed with a restriction score for each item. Multivariable Poisson regression adjusted for sex, age, weight group, risk stratification, and prophylactic antibiotics was used to estimate the impact of the restrictions on the incidence ratios of fever of unknown origin, bacteremia, pneumonia, and gastroenteritis. Data on recommendations of nonpharmacologic anti-infective measures and infectious complications were available in 339 patients treated in 37 institutions. Analyses did not demonstrate a significant benefit of any of the restrictions regarding food, social contacts, and pets on the risk of fever, bacteremia, pneumonia, and gastroenteritis. In contrast, age, weight group, risk stratification, and nonabsorbable antibiotics had some influence on infections complications. The lack of effectiveness of dietary restrictions and restrictions regarding social contacts and pets should result in reconsideration of anti-infective policies. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Rationale, objectives, and design of the EUTrigTreat clinical study: a prospective observational study for arrhythmia risk stratification and assessment of interrelationships among repolarization markers and genotype

PubMed Central

Seegers, Joachim; Vos, Marc A.; Flevari, Panagiota; Willems, Rik; Sohns, Christian; Vollmann, Dirk; Lüthje, Lars; Kremastinos, Dimitrios T.; Floré, Vincent; Meine, Mathias; Tuinenburg, Anton; Myles, Rachel C.; Simon, Dirk; Brockmöller, Jürgen; Friede, Tim; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Lehnart, Stephan E.; Zabel, Markus

2012-01-01

Aims The EUTrigTreat clinical study has been designed as a prospective multicentre observational study and aims to (i) risk stratify patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for mortality and shock risk using multiple novel and established risk markers, (ii) explore a link between repolarization biomarkers and genetics of ion (Ca2+, Na+, K+) metabolism, (iii) compare the results of invasive and non-invasive electrophysiological (EP) testing, (iv) assess changes of non-invasive risk stratification tests over time, and (v) associate arrythmogenomic risk through 19 candidate genes. Methods and results Patients with clinical ICD indication are eligible for the trial. Upon inclusion, patients will undergo non-invasive risk stratification, including beat-to-beat variability of repolarization (BVR), T-wave alternans, T-wave morphology variables, ambient arrhythmias from Holter, heart rate variability, and heart rate turbulence. Non-invasive or invasive programmed electrical stimulation will assess inducibility of ventricular arrhythmias, with the latter including recordings of monophasic action potentials and assessment of restitution properties. Established candidate genes are screened for variants. The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality, while one of the secondary endpoints is ICD shock risk. A mean follow-up of 3.3 years is anticipated. Non-invasive testing will be repeated annually during follow-up. It has been calculated that 700 patients are required to identify risk predictors of the primary endpoint, with a possible increase to 1000 patients based on interim risk analysis. Conclusion The EUTrigTreat clinical study aims to overcome current shortcomings in sudden cardiac death risk stratification and to answer several related research questions. The initial patient recruitment is expected to be completed in July 2012, and follow-up is expected to end in September 2014. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01209494. PMID:22117037

Prognostic value of the Ortho Vitros cardiac troponin I assay in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia. Risk stratification using European Society of Cardiology/American College of Cardiology recommended cutoff values.

PubMed

Apple, Fred S; Murakami, MaryAnn M; Quist, Heidi H; Pearce, Lesly A; Wieczorek, Stacey; Wu, Alan H B

2003-07-01

We evaluated the risk assessment value of a commercial cardiac troponin (cTn; Ortho Vitros ECi, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, Raritan, NJ) I assay in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia suggestive of acute coronary syndrome and compared findings with those for a commercial cTnT assay in the same population. The cTn levels were measured by both assays in plasma samples from 273 patients during 24 hours after admission. Baseline and maximum concentrations were used for risk stratification; cutoffs were the 99th percentile and 10% coefficient of variation. End points were all-cause death and cardiac events within 60 days. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves. RRs of cardiac events and death were significantly higher with increased baseline and maximum concentrations using either cTnI cutoff. The respective mortality rates for baseline cTnI of more than 0.08 microgram/L vs 0.08 microgram/L or less were 17.4% vs 2.9% (P = .001); cardiac event rates were 11.5% vs 3.6% (P = .03). Exclusion of patients with ST-segment elevation had no significant effect on rates for either assay. Mortality was higher in the intermediate (0.09-0.2 microgram/L) than in the low (< or = 0.08 microgram/L) group for cTnI, with directionally similar results for cTnT. Our findings validate the Ortho cTnI assay as a risk stratification biomarker in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia.

A new evidence-based risk stratification system for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma into low, intermediate, and high risk groups with implications for management.

PubMed

Baum, Christian L; Wright, Adam C; Martinez, Juan-Carlos; Arpey, Christopher J; Brewer, Jerry D; Roenigk, Randall K; Otley, Clark C

2018-01-01

Most primary cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas are cured with surgery. A subset, however, may develop local and nodal metastasis that may eventuate in disease-specific; death. This subset has been variably termed high risk. Herein, we review; an emerging body of data on the risks of these outcomes and propose an evidence-based; risk stratification for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk tumors that takes into; account both tumor and patient characteristics. Finally, we discuss a framework for; management of these tumors on the basis of data, when available, and our; recommendations when data are sparse. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Congenital and hereditary causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and risk stratification.

PubMed

Stojanovska, Jadranka; Garg, Anubhav; Patel, Smita; Melville, David M; Kazerooni, Ella A; Mueller, Gisela C

2013-01-01

Sudden cardiac death is defined as death from unexpected circulatory arrest-usually a result of cardiac arrhythmia-that occurs within 1 hour of the onset of symptoms. Proper and timely identification of individuals at risk for sudden cardiac death and the diagnosis of its predisposing conditions are vital. A careful history and physical examination, in addition to electrocardiography and cardiac imaging, are essential to identify conditions associated with sudden cardiac death. Among young adults (18-35 years), sudden cardiac death most commonly results from a previously undiagnosed congenital or hereditary condition, such as coronary artery anomalies and inherited cardiomyopathies (eg, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy [ARVC], dilated cardiomyopathy, and noncompaction cardiomyopathy). Overall, the most common causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults are, in descending order of frequency, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, coronary artery anomalies with an interarterial or intramural course, and ARVC. Often, sudden cardiac death is precipitated by ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation and may be prevented with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Risk stratification to determine the need for an ICD is challenging and involves imaging, particularly echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Coronary artery anomalies, a diverse group of congenital disorders with a variable manifestation, may be depicted at coronary computed tomographic angiography or MR angiography. A thorough understanding of clinical risk stratification, imaging features, and complementary diagnostic tools for the evaluation of cardiac disorders that may lead to sudden cardiac death is essential to effectively use imaging to guide diagnosis and therapy.

Metabolomic analysis of 92 pulmonary embolism patients from a nested case-control study identifies metabolites associated with adverse clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Zeleznik, O A; Poole, E M; Lindstrom, S; Kraft, P; Van Hylckama Vlieg, A; Lasky-Su, J A; Harrington, L B; Hagan, K; Kim, J; Parry, B A; Giordano, N; Kabrhel, C

2018-03-01

Essentials Risk-stratification often fails to predict clinical deterioration in pulmonary embolism (PE). First-ever high-throughput metabolomics analysis of risk-stratified PE patients. Changes in circulating metabolites reflect a compromised energy metabolism in PE. Metabolites play a key role in the pathophysiology and risk stratification of PE. Background Patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) exhibit wide variation in clinical presentation and outcomes. Our understanding of the pathophysiologic mechanisms differentiating low-risk and high-risk PE is limited, so current risk-stratification efforts often fail to predict clinical deterioration and are insufficient to guide management. Objectives To improve our understanding of the physiology differentiating low-risk from high-risk PE, we conducted the first-ever high-throughput metabolomics analysis (843 named metabolites) comparing PE patients across risk strata within a nested case-control study. Patients/methods We enrolled 92 patients diagnosed with acute PE and collected plasma within 24 h of PE diagnosis. We used linear regression and pathway analysis to identify metabolites and pathways associated with PE risk-strata. Results When we compared 46 low-risk with 46 intermediate/high-risk PEs, 50 metabolites were significantly different after multiple testing correction. These metabolites were enriched in the following pathways: tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, fatty acid metabolism (acyl carnitine) and purine metabolism, (hypo)xanthine/inosine containing. Additionally, energy, nucleotide and amino acid pathways were downregulated in intermediate/high-risk PE patients. When we compared 28 intermediate-risk with 18 high-risk PE patients, 41 metabolites differed at a nominal P-value level. These metabolites were enriched in fatty acid metabolism (acyl cholines), and hemoglobin and porphyrin metabolism. Conclusion Our results suggest that high-throughput metabolomics can provide insight into the pathophysiology of PE. Specifically, changes in circulating metabolites reflect compromised energy metabolism in intermediate/high-risk PE patients. These findings demonstrate the important role metabolites play in the pathophysiology of PE and highlight metabolomics as a potential tool for risk stratification of PE. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Comparison of Accuracy of Diabetes Risk Score and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome in Assessing Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Inter99 Cohort

PubMed Central

Shafizadeh, Tracy B.; Moler, Edward J.; Kolberg, Janice A.; Nguyen, Uyen Thao; Hansen, Torben; Jorgensen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

2011-01-01

Background Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a previously developed diabetes risk score, PreDx® Diabetes Risk Score (DRS). DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. Methodology/Principal Findings DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged 30–60) for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly lower false positive rate. Similarly, when the false positive rate was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly higher specificity. In further analyses, subjects were classified by presence of 0–2, 3 or 4–5 risk factors with matching proportions of subjects distributed among three DRS groups. Comparison between the two risk stratification schemes, MetS risk factors and DRS, were evaluated using Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Comparing risk stratification by DRS to MetS factors in the total population, the NRI was 0.146 (p = 0.008) demonstrating DRS provides significantly improved stratification. Additionally, the relative risk of T2DM differed by 15 fold between the low and high DRS risk groups, but only 8-fold between the low and high risk MetS groups. Conclusions/Significance DRS provides a more accurate assessment of risk for diabetes than MetS. This improved performance may allow clinicians to focus preventive strategies on those most in need of urgent intervention. PMID:21829540

The effect of cost construction based on either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group stratification on the resulting cost-effectiveness ratios.

PubMed

Chumney, Elinor C G; Biddle, Andrea K; Simpson, Kit N; Weinberger, Morris; Magruder, Kathryn M; Zelman, William N

2004-01-01

As cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are increasingly used to inform policy decisions, there is a need for more information on how different cost determination methods affect cost estimates and the degree to which the resulting cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) may be affected. The lack of specificity of diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) could mean that they are ill-suited for costing applications in CEAs. Yet, the implications of using International Classification of Diseases-9th edition (ICD-9) codes or a form of disease-specific risk group stratification instead of DRGs has yet to be clearly documented. To demonstrate the implications of different disease coding mechanisms on costs and the magnitude of error that could be introduced in head-to-head comparisons of resulting CERs. We based our analyses on a previously published Markov model for HIV/AIDS therapies. We used the Healthcare Cost and Utilisation Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS) data release 6, which contains all-payer data on hospital inpatient stays from selected states. We added costs for the mean number of hospitalisations, derived from analyses based on either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group stratification cost weights, to the standard outpatient and prescription drug costs to yield an estimate of total charges for each AIDS-defining illness (ADI). Finally, we estimated the Markov model three times with the appropriate ADI cost weights to obtain CERs specific to the use of either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group. Contrary to expectations, we found that the choice of coding/grouping assumptions that are disease-specific by either DRG codes, ICD-9 codes or risk group resulted in very similar CER estimates for highly active antiretroviral therapy. The large variations in the specific ADI cost weights across the three different coding approaches was especially interesting. However, because no one approach produced consistently higher estimates than the others, the Markov model's weighted cost per event and resulting CERs were remarkably close in value to one another. Although DRG codes are based on broader categories and contain less information than ICD-9 codes, in practice the choice of whether to use DRGs or ICD-9 codes may have little effect on the CEA results in heterogeneous conditions such as HIV/AIDS.

The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

PubMed Central

Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2016-01-01

Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

Benefit-risk perception of natalizumab therapy in neurologists and a large cohort of multiple sclerosis patients.

PubMed

Heesen, Christoph; Kleiter, Ingo; Meuth, Sven G; Krämer, Julia; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

2017-05-15

Natalizumab (NAT) is associated with the risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Risk stratification algorithms have been developed, however, without detectable reduction of PML incidence. To evaluate to which extent patients and physicians understand and accept risks associated with NAT treatment. Prospective observational cohort study in German MS centers (n=73) among NAT-treated MS patients (n=801) and their neurologists (n=99). Patients included in this study had mean disease duration of 10.2years and a mean NAT treatment duration of 24months. More than 90% of patients and physicians voted for shared decision making or an informed choice decision making approach. Patients and physicians perceived a similar threat from MS as serious disease and both overestimated treatment benefits from NAT based on trial data. Men perceived MS more severe than women and perception of seriousness increased with age in both groups and in patients as well with increasing disability. Although patients evaluated their PML risk higher, their risk acceptance was significantly higher than of their neurologists. Risk stratification knowledge was good among neurologists and significantly lower among patients. While patients and physicians seem to have realistic risk perception of PML and knowledge of risk stratification concepts, the threat of MS and the perception of treatment benefits may explain the ongoing high acceptance of PML risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electrocardiologic and related methods of non-invasive detection and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia: state of the art and perspectives

PubMed Central

Huebner, Thomas; Goernig, Matthias; Schuepbach, Michael; Sanz, Ernst; Pilgram, Roland; Seeck, Andrea; Voss, Andreas

2010-01-01

Background: Electrocardiographic methods still provide the bulk of cardiovascular diagnostics. Cardiac ischemia is associated with typical alterations in cardiac biosignals that have to be measured, analyzed by mathematical algorithms and allegorized for further clinical diagnostics. The fast growing fields of biomedical engineering and applied sciences are intensely focused on generating new approaches to cardiac biosignal analysis for diagnosis and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia. Objectives: To present and review the state of the art in and new approaches to electrocardiologic methods for non-invasive detection and risk stratification in coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial ischemia; secondarily, to explore the future perspectives of these methods. Methods: In follow-up to the Expert Discussion at the 2008 Workshop on "Biosignal Analysis" of the German Society of Biomedical Engineering in Potsdam, Germany, we comprehensively searched the pertinent literature and databases and compiled the results into this review. Then, we categorized the state-of-the-art methods and selected new approaches based on their applications in detection and risk stratification of myocardial ischemia. Finally, we compared the pros and cons of the methods and explored their future potentials for cardiology. Results: Resting ECG, particularly suited for detecting ST-elevation myocardial infarctions, and exercise ECG, for the diagnosis of stable CAD, are state-of-the-art methods. New exercise-free methods for detecting stable CAD include cardiogoniometry (CGM); methods for detecting acute coronary syndrome without ST elevation are Body Surface Potential Mapping, functional imaging and CGM. Heart rate variability and blood pressure variability analyses, microvolt T-wave alternans and signal-averaged ECG mainly serve in detecting and stratifying the risk for lethal arrythmias in patients with myocardial ischemia or previous myocardial infarctions. Telemedicine and ambient-assisted living support the electrocardiological monitoring of at-risk patients. Conclusions: There are many promising methods for the exercise-free, non-invasive detection of CAD and myocardial ischemia in the stable and acute phases. In the coming years, these new methods will help enhance state-of-the-art procedures in routine diagnostics. The future can expect that equally novel methods for risk stratification and telemedicine will transition into clinical routine. PMID:21063467

Case finding with incomplete administrative data: observations on playing with less than a full deck.

PubMed

Holmes, Ann M; Ackermann, Ronald T; Katz, Barry P; Downs, Stephen M; Inui, Thomas S

2010-12-01

Capacity constraints and efficiency considerations require that disease management programs identify patients most likely to benefit from intervention. Predictive modeling with available administrative data has been used as a strategy to match patients with appropriate interventions. Administrative data, however, can be plagued by problems of incompleteness and delays in processing. In this article, we examine the effects of these problems on the effectiveness of using administrative data to identify suitable candidates for disease management, and we evaluate various proposed solutions. We build prospective models using regression analysis and evaluate the resulting stratification algorithms using R² statistics, areas under receiver operator characteristic curves, and cost concentration ratios. We find delays in receipt of data reduce the effectiveness of the stratification algorithm, but the degree of compromise depends on what proportion of the population is targeted for intervention. Surprisingly, we find that supplementing partial data with a longer panel of more outdated data produces algorithms that are inferior to algorithms based on a shorter window of more recent data. Demographic data add little to algorithms that include prior claims data, and are an inadequate substitute when claims data are unavailable. Supplementing demographic data with additional information on self-reported health status improves the stratification performance only slightly and only when disease management is targeted to the highest risk patients. We conclude that the extra costs associated with surveying patients for health status information or retrieving older claims data cannot be justified given the lack of evidence that either improves the effectiveness of the stratification algorithm.

Effect of Neurocognition and Concussion on Musculoskeletal Injury Risk

PubMed Central

Herman, Daniel C.; Zaremski, Jason L.; Vincent, Heather K.; Vincent, Kevin R.

2015-01-01

Research regarding musculoskeletal injury risk has focused primarily on anatomical, neuromuscular, hormonal, and environmental risk factors; however, subsequent injury risk screening and intervention programs have been largely limited to neuromuscular factors and have faced challenges in both implementation and efficacy. Recent studies indicate that poor neurocognitive performance, either at baseline or in the aftermath of a concussion, is associated with elevated risk of musculoskeletal injury. Despite the relatively limited current understanding regarding the nature of the relationship between different aspects of neurocognitive performance and musculoskeletal injury risk, this is a promising area of research that may yield significant advances in musculoskeletal injury risk stratification, rehabilitation, and prevention. PMID:25968852

Risk Stratification in Arrhythmic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Without Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators

PubMed Central

Brun, Francesca; Groeneweg, Judith A.; Gear, Kathleen; Sinagra, Gianfranco; van der Heijden, Jeroen; Mestroni, Luisa; Hauer, Richard N.; Borgstrom, Mark; Marcus, Frank I.; Hughes, Trina

2016-01-01

Objectives The primary objective of this study is risk stratification of patients with arrhythmic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). Background There is a need to identify those who need an automatic implantable defibrillator (ICD) to prevent sudden death. Methods This is an analysis of 88 patients with ARVC from three centers who were not treated with an ICD. Results Risk factors for subsequent arrhythmic deaths were pre-enrollment sustained or nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) and decreased left ventricular function. Conclusion These factors serve as proposed guidelines for implantation of an ICD in patients with ARVC to prevent sudden death. PMID:27790640

Accurate Diabetes Risk Stratification Using Machine Learning: Role of Missing Value and Outliers.

PubMed

Maniruzzaman, Md; Rahman, Md Jahanur; Al-MehediHasan, Md; Suri, Harman S; Abedin, Md Menhazul; El-Baz, Ayman; Suri, Jasjit S

2018-04-10

Diabetes mellitus is a group of metabolic diseases in which blood sugar levels are too high. About 8.8% of the world was diabetic in 2017. It is projected that this will reach nearly 10% by 2045. The major challenge is that when machine learning-based classifiers are applied to such data sets for risk stratification, leads to lower performance. Thus, our objective is to develop an optimized and robust machine learning (ML) system under the assumption that missing values or outliers if replaced by a median configuration will yield higher risk stratification accuracy. This ML-based risk stratification is designed, optimized and evaluated, where: (i) the features are extracted and optimized from the six feature selection techniques (random forest, logistic regression, mutual information, principal component analysis, analysis of variance, and Fisher discriminant ratio) and combined with ten different types of classifiers (linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, naïve Bayes, Gaussian process classification, support vector machine, artificial neural network, Adaboost, logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest) under the hypothesis that both missing values and outliers when replaced by computed medians will improve the risk stratification accuracy. Pima Indian diabetic dataset (768 patients: 268 diabetic and 500 controls) was used. Our results demonstrate that on replacing the missing values and outliers by group median and median values, respectively and further using the combination of random forest feature selection and random forest classification technique yields an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the curve as: 92.26%, 95.96%, 79.72%, 91.14%, 91.20%, and 0.93, respectively. This is an improvement of 10% over previously developed techniques published in literature. The system was validated for its stability and reliability. RF-based model showed the best performance when outliers are replaced by median values.

Preventing tomorrow's sudden cardiac death today: part I: Current data on risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Al-Khatib, Sana M; Sanders, Gillian D; Bigger, J Thomas; Buxton, Alfred E; Califf, Robert M; Carlson, Mark; Curtis, Anne; Curtis, Jeptha; Fain, Eric; Gersh, Bernard J; Gold, Michael R; Haghighi-Mood, Ali; Hammill, Stephen C; Healey, Jeff; Hlatky, Mark; Hohnloser, Stefan; Kim, Raymond J; Lee, Kerry; Mark, Daniel; Mianulli, Marcus; Mitchell, Brent; Prystowsky, Eric N; Smith, Joseph; Steinhaus, David; Zareba, Wojciech

2007-06-01

Accurate and timely prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a necessary prerequisite for effective prevention and therapy. Although the largest number of SCD events occurs in patients without overt heart disease, there are currently no tests that are of proven predictive value in this population. Efforts in risk stratification for SCD have focused primarily on predicting SCD in patients with known structural heart disease. Despite the ubiquity of tests that have been purported to predict SCD vulnerability in such patients, there is little consensus on which test, in addition to the left ventricular ejection fraction, should be used to determine which patients will benefit from an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. On July 20 and 21, 2006, a group of experts representing clinical cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, biostatistics, economics, and health policy were joined by representatives of the US Food and Drug administration, Centers for Medicare Services, Agency for Health Research and Quality, the Heart Rhythm Society, and the device and pharmaceutical industry for a round table meeting to review current data on strategies of risk stratification for SCD, to explore methods to translate these strategies into practice and policy, and to identify areas that need to be addressed by future research studies. The meeting was organized by the Duke Center for the Prevention of SCD at the Duke Clinical Research Institute and was funded by industry participants. This article summarizes the presentations and discussions that occurred at that meeting.

Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-29

IV 0 2 10 23 BIRADS V 0 1 2 1 No mammogram 116 94 55 45 Breast biopsy category .4076 Benign, no atypia 19 12 27 34 Premalignant 1 0 2 4 Infiltrating... breast EIS result∗ Estimated outcome, % Known evidence Biopsy category EIS Gail Benign, no Infiltrating cancer Case frequency, % result cutoff‘ atypia or...Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study Alexander Stojadinovic, MD,a,b Christina Eberhardt,a

The Cost-Effective Evaluation of Syncope.

PubMed

Angus, Steven

2016-09-01

Syncope is a common clinical problem that carries a high socioeconomic burden. A structured approach in the evaluation of syncope with special emphasis on a detailed history, comprehensive physical examination that includes orthostatic vital signs, and an electrocardiogram, proves to be the most cost-effective approach. The need for additional testing and hospital admission should be based on the results of the initial evaluation and use of risk-stratification tools that help identify those syncope patients at highest risk for poor outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stroke Risk Stratification and its Validation using Ultrasonic Echolucent Carotid Wall Plaque Morphology: A Machine Learning Paradigm.

PubMed

Araki, Tadashi; Jain, Pankaj K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Ikeda, Nobutaka; El-Baz, Ayman; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Suri, Jasjit S

2017-01-01

Stroke risk stratification based on grayscale morphology of the ultrasound carotid wall has recently been shown to have a promise in classification of high risk versus low risk plaque or symptomatic versus asymptomatic plaques. In previous studies, this stratification has been mainly based on analysis of the far wall of the carotid artery. Due to the multifocal nature of atherosclerotic disease, the plaque growth is not restricted to the far wall alone. This paper presents a new approach for stroke risk assessment by integrating assessment of both the near and far walls of the carotid artery using grayscale morphology of the plaque. Further, this paper presents a scientific validation system for stroke risk assessment. Both these innovations have never been presented before. The methodology consists of an automated segmentation system of the near wall and far wall regions in grayscale carotid B-mode ultrasound scans. Sixteen grayscale texture features are computed, and fed into the machine learning system. The training system utilizes the lumen diameter to create ground truth labels for the stratification of stroke risk. The cross-validation procedure is adapted in order to obtain the machine learning testing classification accuracy through the use of three sets of partition protocols: (5, 10, and Jack Knife). The mean classification accuracy over all the sets of partition protocols for the automated system in the far and near walls is 95.08% and 93.47%, respectively. The corresponding accuracies for the manual system are 94.06% and 92.02%, respectively. The precision of merit of the automated machine learning system when compared against manual risk assessment system are 98.05% and 97.53% for the far and near walls, respectively. The ROC of the risk assessment system for the far and near walls is close to 1.0 demonstrating high accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of sample stratification on dairy GWAS results

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Artificial insemination and genetic selection are major factors contributing to population stratification in dairy cattle. In this study, we analyzed the effect of sample stratification and the effect of stratification correction on results of a dairy genome-wide association study (GWAS). Three methods for stratification correction were used: the efficient mixed-model association expedited (EMMAX) method accounting for correlation among all individuals, a generalized least squares (GLS) method based on half-sib intraclass correlation, and a principal component analysis (PCA) approach. Results Historical pedigree data revealed that the 1,654 contemporary cows in the GWAS were all related when traced through approximately 10–15 generations of ancestors. Genome and phenotype stratifications had a striking overlap with the half-sib structure. A large elite half-sib family of cows contributed to the detection of favorable alleles that had low frequencies in the general population and high frequencies in the elite cows and contributed to the detection of X chromosome effects. All three methods for stratification correction reduced the number of significant effects. EMMAX method had the most severe reduction in the number of significant effects, and the PCA method using 20 principal components and GLS had similar significance levels. Removal of the elite cows from the analysis without using stratification correction removed many effects that were also removed by the three methods for stratification correction, indicating that stratification correction could have removed some true effects due to the elite cows. SNP effects with good consensus between different methods and effect size distributions from USDA’s Holstein genomic evaluation included the DGAT1-NIBP region of BTA14 for production traits, a SNP 45kb upstream from PIGY on BTA6 and two SNPs in NIBP on BTA14 for protein percentage. However, most of these consensus effects had similar frequencies in the elite and average cows. Conclusions Genetic selection and extensive use of artificial insemination contributed to overlapped genome, pedigree and phenotype stratifications. The presence of an elite cluster of cows was related to the detection of rare favorable alleles that had high frequencies in the elite cluster and low frequencies in the remaining cows. Methods for stratification correction could have removed some true effects associated with genetic selection. PMID:23039970

[Assessment of Heavy/ Light Chain Pairs of Immunoglobulin (Hevylite assay) -  Benefit for Stratification of Multiple Myeloma?].

PubMed

Ščudla, V; Lochaman, P; Pika, T; Zapletalová, J; Minařík, J; Bačovský, J

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was the comparison of two novel stratification models in multiple myeloma (MM), ie. according to Avet- Loiseau (A L) and according to Ludwig (L), based on the HLC r index (ratio of serum levels of involved- HLC/ uninvolved HLC, ie. HLC κ/ HLC  λ assessed using ie. nephelometric/turbidimetric technique using specific polyclonal antibodies on a Binding Site SPA(PLUS)) technique) and β(2) microglobulin (β(2) M) with selected prognostic factors (PF) of MM and staging systems according to Durie- Salmon (D S) and International Staging System (ISS). In a cohort of 132 patients (94 with IgG and 38 with IgA type of MM) at the time of dia-gnosis, we assessed HLC r, select-ed PF and D S, ISS, A L and L stratification systems. Unlike in IgA isotype, in IgG isotype we found a significant relationship of HLC r to stratification according to D S and ISS with the difference between A and B substages according to D S (p = 0.049) and between ISS stages 1 vs. 3 (p = 0.001). In the IgG group, there was highly significant relationship of the depth of Hb and albumin decrease and β(2) M increase to the results of stratification according to ISS, A L and L model (p < 0.0001), increase of LDH in the ISS system and A L, and creatinine according to ISS and L but not the relationship of the stages according to any of the stratification systems to the values of FLC r (ratio of serum free light chains κ/ λ of immunoglobulin), thrombocytes and Ca. In the IgA type, there was a significant relationship of the depth of the decrease of Hb, thrombocytes, albumin and increase of β(2) M to the results of stratification according to ISS, A L and L and increase of creatinine in the case of ISS, but not of the values of FLC r, Ca and LDH in the case of any of the stratification systems. The degree of correlation of selected PF, especially of Hb, albumin and β(2) M, event. of thrombocytes, LDH and creatinine to the stages according to ISS and to stage 1-3 according to A L and L model was in IgG vs IgA isotype significantly different (p < 0.0001- 0.030). Staging system according to ISS had proportional distribution of stages 1- 3, whereas in the A L model prevailed in IgA and IgG isotype risk category 2, ie. intermediate-risk (47.3 and 44.7%) and in the L model prevailed risk category 3, ie. high-risk (41.5 and 52.6%) with low count of category 1, ie. low- risk category (23.4 and 10.5%). McNemar- Bowker test of symmetry showed in both types of MM the highest concordance between the stratification according to D S and L in category 3, ie. high-risk (31.9 vs. 28.9%) with overall accord only in 53.2 and 42.1% and with significant shift in the case of IgG isotype only (p = 0.036). In IgG and IgA isotype there was an overall concordance in the distribution of categories 1- 3 according to ISS vs. A L (62.4 and 63.2%) but with significant shift of the stratification (p = 0.002 and 0.028). In the case of IgG and IgA isotype there was a close relationship between the models A L and L (64.5 and 81.6%) with significant stratification shift (p < 0.0001 and 0.030). The new stratification models for MM according to A L and L are easily practically applicable, with close relationship to principal PF but they need separate assessment of IgG and IgA isotypes of MM. The choice of optimal model for routine practice needs a validation study aimed at progression free survival and overall survival.

Differentiated thyroid cancer in children: Heterogeneity of predictive risk factors.

PubMed

Russo, Marco; Malandrino, Pasqualino; Moleti, Mariacarla; Vermiglio, Francesco; D'Angelo, Antonio; La Rosa, Giuliana; Sapuppo, Giulia; Calaciura, Francesca; Regalbuto, Concetto; Belfiore, Antonino; Vigneri, Riccardo; Pellegriti, Gabriella

2018-05-16

To correlate clinical and pathological characteristics at diagnosis with patient long-term outcomes and to evaluate ongoing risk stratifications in a large series of paediatric differentiated thyroid cancers (DTC). Retrospective analysis of clinical and pathological prognostic factors of 124 paediatric patients with DTC (age at diagnosis <19 years) followed up for 10.4 ± 8.4 years. Patients with a follow-up >3 years (n = 104) were re-classified 18 months after surgery on the basis of their response to therapy (ongoing risk stratification). Most patients had a papillary histotype (96.0%), were older than 15 years (75.0%) and were diagnosed because of clinical local symptoms (63.7%). Persistent/recurrent disease was present in 31.5% of cases during follow-up, but at the last evaluation, only 12.9% had biochemical or structural disease. The presence of metastases in the lymph nodes of the lateral compartment (OR 3.2, 95% CI, 1.28-7.16, P = 0.01) was the only independent factor associated with recurrent/persistent disease during follow-up. At the last evaluation, biochemical/structural disease was associated with node metastases (N1a, N1b) by univariate but not multivariate analysis. Ongoing risk stratification compared to the initial risk classification method better identified patients with a lower probability of persistent/recurrent disease (NPV = 100%). In spite of the aggressive presentations at diagnosis, paediatric patients with DTC show an excellent response to treatment and often a favourable outcome. N1b status should be considered a strong predictor of persistent/recurrent disease which, as in adults, is better predicted by ongoing risk stratification. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk stratification using lean body mass in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Hioki, Hirofumi; Watanabe, Yusuke; Kozuma, Ken; Yamamoto, Masanori; Naganuma, Toru; Araki, Motoharu; Tada, Norio; Shirai, Shinichi; Yamanaka, Futoshi; Higashimori, Akihiro; Mizutani, Kazuki; Tabata, Minoru; Takagi, Kensuke; Ueno, Hiroshi; Hayashida, Kentaro

2018-02-22

The prognostic impact of skeletal muscle mass, assessed using lean body mass (LBM), remain unclear in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). The aim of this study to assess prognostic impact of LBM on mortality after TAVR. We assessed 1,613 patients (median age 85 years, 70% female) who underwent TAVI from October 2013 to April 2016 using OCEAN (Optimized transCathEter vAlvular interveNtion)-TAVI registry data. LBM was calculated using the James formula. The primary endpoint was all-cause death after TAVR. Median follow-up period was 287 days (interquartile range 110-462). The Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with low LBM had significantly higher incidence of all-cause death than those with high LBM in male (32.3% vs. 9.9%, log rank P < 0.001) and female (15.8% vs. 9.2%, log-rank P = 0.011). On contrary, the risk stratification using body mass index (BMI) could not validate into female patients who underwent TAVR. The multivariate analysis showed that the LBM was an independent predictor of all-cause death in male (Hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89-0.98) and female (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99). Inversely, the assessment using BMI could not identify the high-risk population in a female. The patients with low LBM had the higher incidence of all-cause death after TAVR than those with high LBM, regardless of gender. Thus, the risk stratification using LBM might provide further insight to identify the high-risk TAVR population, compared to conventional risk stratification using BMI. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Performance of stroke risk scores in older people with atrial fibrillation not taking warfarin: comparative cohort study from BAFTA trial.

PubMed

Hobbs, F D R; Roalfe, A K; Lip, G Y H; Fletcher, K; Fitzmaurice, D A; Mant, J

2011-06-23

To compare the predictive power of the main existing and recently proposed schemes for stratification of risk of stroke in older patients with atrial fibrillation. Comparative cohort study of eight risk stratification scores. Trial of thromboprophylaxis in stroke, the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation in the Aged (BAFTA) trial. 665 patients aged 75 or over with atrial fibrillation based in the community who were randomised to the BAFTA trial and were not taking warfarin throughout or for part of the study period. Events rates of stroke and thromboembolism. 54 (8%) patients had an ischaemic stroke, four (0.6%) had a systemic embolism, and 13 (2%) had a transient ischaemic attack. The distribution of patients classified into the three risk categories (low, moderate, high) was similar across three of the risk stratification scores (revised CHADS(2), NICE, ACC/AHA/ESC), with most patients categorised as high risk (65-69%, n = 460-457) and the remaining classified as moderate risk. The original CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score identified the lowest number as high risk (27%, n = 180). The incremental risk scores of CHADS(2), Rietbrock modified CHADS(2), and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex) failed to show an increase in risk at the upper range of scores. The predictive accuracy was similar across the tested schemes with C statistic ranging from 0.55 (original CHADS(2)) to 0.62 (Rietbrock modified CHADS(2)), with all except the original CHADS(2) predicting better than chance. Bootstrapped paired comparisons provided no evidence of significant differences between the discriminatory ability of the schemes. Based on this single trial population, current risk stratification schemes in older people with atrial fibrillation have only limited ability to predict the risk of stroke. Given the systematic undertreatment of older people with anticoagulation, and the relative safety of warfarin versus aspirin in those aged over 70, there could be a pragmatic rationale for classifying all patients over 75 as "high risk" until better tools are available.

Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

PubMed

Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

2015-04-01

Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could guide decision-making to reduce admissions, optimize utility of diagnostic imaging and prevent negative explorations. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Post-contrast acute kidney injury. Part 2: risk stratification, role of hydration and other prophylactic measures, patients taking metformin and chronic dialysis patients : Recommendations for updated ESUR Contrast Medium Safety Committee guidelines.

PubMed

van der Molen, Aart J; Reimer, Peter; Dekkers, Ilona A; Bongartz, Georg; Bellin, Marie-France; Bertolotto, Michele; Clement, Olivier; Heinz-Peer, Gertraud; Stacul, Fulvio; Webb, Judith A W; Thomsen, Henrik S

2018-07-01

The Contrast Media Safety Committee (CMSC) of the European Society of Urogenital Radiology (ESUR) has updated its 2011 guidelines on the prevention of post-contrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI). The results of the literature review and the recommendations based on it, which were used to prepare the new guidelines, are presented in two papers. AREAS COVERED IN PART 2: Topics reviewed include stratification of PC-AKI risk, the need to withdraw nephrotoxic medication, PC-AKI prophylaxis with hydration or drugs, the use of metformin in diabetic patients receiving contrast medium and the need to alter dialysis schedules in patients receiving contrast medium. • In CKD, hydration reduces the PC-AKI risk • Intravenous normal saline and intravenous sodium bicarbonate provide equally effective prophylaxis • No drugs have been consistently shown to reduce the risk of PC-AKI • Stop metformin from the time of contrast medium administration if eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m 2 • Dialysis schedules need not change when intravascular contrast medium is given.

Stratification Pattern of Static and Scale-Invariant Dynamic Measures of Heartbeat Fluctuations Across Sleep Stages in Young and Elderly

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Daniel T.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

2010-01-01

Cardiac dynamics exhibit complex variability characterized by scale-invariant and nonlinear temporal organization related to the mechanism of neuroautonomic control, which changes with physiologic states and pathologic conditions. Changes in sleep regulation during sleep stages are also related to fluctuations in autonomic nervous activity. However, the interaction between sleep regulation and cardiac autonomic control remains not well understood. Even less is known how this interaction changes with age, as aspects of both cardiac dynamics and sleep regulation differ in healthy elderly compared to young subjects. We hypothesize that because of the neuroautonomic responsiveness in young subjects, fractal and nonlinear features of cardiac dynamics exhibit a pronounced stratification pattern across sleep stages, while in elderly these features will remain unchanged due to age-related loss of cardiac variability and decline of neuroautonomic responsiveness. We analyze the variability and the temporal fractal organization of heartbeat fluctuations across sleep stages in both young and elderly. We find that independent linear and nonlinear measures of cardiac control consistently exhibit the same ordering in their values across sleep stages, forming a robust stratification pattern. Despite changes in sleep architecture and reduced heart rate variability in elderly subjects, this stratification surprisingly does not break down with advanced age. Moreover, the difference between sleep stages for some linear, fractal, and nonlinear measures exceeds the difference between young and elderly, suggesting that the effect of sleep regulation on cardiac dynamics is significantly stronger than the effect of healthy aging. Quantifying changes in this stratification pattern may provide insights into how alterations in sleep regulation contribute to increased cardiac risk. PMID:19203874

Breast cancer screening in the era of density notification legislation: summary of 2014 Massachusetts experience and suggestion of an evidence-based management algorithm by multi-disciplinary expert panel.

PubMed

Freer, Phoebe E; Slanetz, Priscilla J; Haas, Jennifer S; Tung, Nadine M; Hughes, Kevin S; Armstrong, Katrina; Semine, A Alan; Troyan, Susan L; Birdwell, Robyn L

2015-09-01

Stemming from breast density notification legislation in Massachusetts effective 2015, we sought to develop a collaborative evidence-based approach to density notification that could be used by practitioners across the state. Our goal was to develop an evidence-based consensus management algorithm to help patients and health care providers follow best practices to implement a coordinated, evidence-based, cost-effective, sustainable practice and to standardize care in recommendations for supplemental screening. We formed the Massachusetts Breast Risk Education and Assessment Task Force (MA-BREAST) a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary panel of expert radiologists, surgeons, primary care physicians, and oncologists to develop a collaborative approach to density notification legislation. Using evidence-based data from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, the Cochrane review, National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, American Cancer Society recommendations, and American College of Radiology appropriateness criteria, the group collaboratively developed an evidence-based best-practices algorithm. The expert consensus algorithm uses breast density as one element in the risk stratification to determine the need for supplemental screening. Women with dense breasts and otherwise low risk (<15% lifetime risk), do not routinely require supplemental screening per the expert consensus. Women of high risk (>20% lifetime) should consider supplemental screening MRI in addition to routine mammography regardless of breast density. We report the development of the multi-disciplinary collaborative approach to density notification. We propose a risk stratification algorithm to assess personal level of risk to determine the need for supplemental screening for an individual woman.

Impact of self-reported fasting duration on lipid profile variability, cardiovascular risk stratification and metabolic syndrome diagnosis.

PubMed

Janovsky, Carolina Castro Porto Silva; Laurinavicius, Antonio; Cesena, Fernando; Valente, Viviane; Ferreira, Carlos Eduardo; Mangueira, Cristovão; Conceição, Raquel; Santos, Raul D; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer

2018-01-01

We sought to investigate the impact of self-reported fasting duration times on the lipid profile results and its impact on the cardiovascular risk stratification and metabolic syndrome diagnosis. We analyzed data from all consecutive individuals evaluated in a comprehensive health examination at the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein from January to December 2015. We divided these patients in three groups, according to the fasting duration recalled (< 8h, 8-12h and > 12h). We calculated the global cardiovascular risk and diagnosed metabolic syndrome according to the current criteria and estimated their change according to fasting duration. A total of 12,196 (42.3 ± 9.2 years-old, 30.2% females) patients were evaluated. The distribution of cardiovascular risk was not different among groups defined by fasting duration in both men and women (p = 0.547 for women and p = 0.329 for men). Similarly, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was not influenced by the fasting duration (p = 0.431 for women and p = 0.166 for men). Self-reported fasting duration had no significant impact on the lipid profile results, including triglyceride levels. Consequently, no changes on the cardiovascular risk stratification using the Framingham risk score nor changes on the prevalence of metabolic syndrome were noted.

Risk-stratification, resource availability, and choice of surgical location for the management of parturients with abnormal placentation: a survey of United States-based obstetric anesthesiologists.

PubMed

Grant, T R; Ellinas, E H; Kula, A O; Muravyeva, M Y

2018-05-01

Parturients with abnormally adherent placentas present anesthetic challenges that include risk-stratification, management planning and resource utilization. The labor and delivery unit may be remote from the main operating room services. Division chiefs of North American obstetric anesthesiology services were surveyed about their practices and management of parturients with an abnormally adherent placenta. Eighty-four of 122 chiefs, representing 103 hospital sites, responded to the survey (response rate 69%). Sixty-one percent of respondents agreed that women with preoperative placental imaging that was "suspicious" of placenta accreta represented a lower risk category; all other suggested descriptions fell into a higher risk category. Seventy-nine percent of respondents indicated that lower risk cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit, while 71% indicated that higher risk cases would be managed in the main operating room. Institutions where all cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit had better access to human and technical resources, were less remote from their main operating areas, and promoted neuraxial rather than general anesthesia, even for parturients perceived to be at higher risk. Obstetric anesthesia leaders identified patients at lower clinical risk and those less likely to require greater resources. Additional resources were available in institutions where all abnormal placentation cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit. Practitioners should consider risk-stratification and resource availability when planning high-risk cases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk score including microdeletions improves relapse prediction for standard and medium risk precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children.

PubMed

Sutton, Rosemary; Venn, Nicola C; Law, Tamara; Boer, Judith M; Trahair, Toby N; Ng, Anthea; Den Boer, Monique L; Dissanayake, Anuruddhika; Giles, Jodie E; Dalzell, Pauline; Mayoh, Chelsea; Barbaric, Draga; Revesz, Tamas; Alvaro, Frank; Pieters, Rob; Haber, Michelle; Norris, Murray D; Schrappe, Martin; Dalla Pozza, Luciano; Marshall, Glenn M

2018-02-01

To prevent relapse, high risk paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is treated very intensively. However, most patients who eventually relapse have standard or medium risk ALL with low minimal residual disease (MRD) levels. We analysed recurrent microdeletions and other clinical prognostic factors in a cohort of 475 uniformly treated non-high risk precursor B-cell ALL patients with the aim of better predicting relapse and refining risk stratification. Lower relapse-free survival at 7 years (RFS) was associated with IKZF1 intragenic deletions (P < 0·0001); P2RY8-CRLF2 gene fusion (P < 0·0004); Day 33 MRD>5 × 10 -5 (P < 0·0001) and High National Cancer Institute (NCI) risk (P < 0·0001). We created a predictive model based on a risk score (RS) for deletions, MRD and NCI risk, extending from an RS of 0 (RS0) for patients with no unfavourable factors to RS2 +  for patients with 2 or 3 high risk factors. RS0, RS1, and RS2 +  groups had RFS of 93%, 78% and 49%, respectively, and overall survival (OS) of 99%, 91% and 71%. The RS provided greater discrimination than MRD-based risk stratification into standard (89% RFS, 96% OS) and medium risk groups (79% RFS, 91% OS). We conclude that this RS may enable better early therapeutic stratification and thus improve cure rates for childhood ALL. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Overview and recent advances in the treatment of neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Whittle, Sarah B; Smith, Valeria; Doherty, Erin; Zhao, Sibo; McCarty, Scott; Zage, Peter E

2017-04-01

Children with neuroblastoma have widely divergent outcomes, ranging from cure in >90% of patients with low risk disease to <50% for those with high risk disease. Recent research has shed light on the biology of neuroblastoma, allowing for more accurate risk stratification and treatment reduction in many cases, although newer treatment strategies for children with high-risk and relapsed neuroblastoma are needed to improve outcomes. Areas covered: Neuroblastoma epidemiology, diagnosis, risk stratification, and recent advances in treatment of both newly diagnosed and relapsed neuroblastoma. Expert commentary: The identification of newer tumor targets and of novel cell-mediated immunotherapy agents may lead to novel therapeutic approaches, and clinical trials for regimens designed to target individual genetic aberrations in tumors are underway. A combination of therapeutic modalities will likely be required to improve survival and cure rates for patients with high-risk neuroblastoma.

Understanding the Effect of Stratification on Vertical and Temporal Heterogenieties of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes Using a Long Term in-situ Monitoring Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, A.; Guala, M.; Hondzo, M.

2017-12-01

Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB) are made up of potentially toxic freshwater microorganisms called cyanobacteria, because of this they are a ecological and public health hazard. The occurrences of toxic HAB are unpredictable and highly spatially and temporary variable in freshwater ecosystems. To study the abiotic drivers for toxic HAB, a floating research station has been deployed in a hyper-eutrophic lake in Madison Lake, Minnesota, from June-October 2016. This research station provides full depth water quality (hourly) and meteorological monitoring (5 minutes). Water quality monitoring is performed by an autonomously traversed water quality sonde that provides chemical, physical and biological measurements; including phycocyanin, a photosynthetic pigment distinct to cyanobacteria. A bloom of cyanobacteria recorded in the epiliminion in mid-July was driven by prolonged strong thermal stratification in the water column, high surface water temperatures and high phosphate concentrations in the epiliminion. The high biovolume (BV) persisted until late September and was sustained below the surface after stratification weakened, when the thermocline did not confine cyanobacteria-rich layers any more, and cyanobacteria vertical heterogeneities decayed in the water column. High correlations among BV stratification, surface water temperature, and stratification stability informed the development of a quantitative relationship to determine how BV heterogeneities vary with thermal structure in the water column. The BV heterogeneity decreased with thermal stratification stability and surface water temperature, and the dynamic lake stability described by the Lake Number. Finally the location of maximum BV accumulation showed diurnal patterns ie. BV peaks were observed at 1 m depth during the day and deeper layers during the night, which followed patterns in light penetration and thermocline depth. These findings capture cyanobacteria vertical and temporal heterogeneities on a on full depth, seasonal scale and quantify BV distribution throughout the water column under different stratification conditions, which can be important for mitigating risks of contamination of drinking water and recreational exposure.

The influence of atmospheric stratification on scatterometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Louis, Jean-Francois; Hoffman, Ross N.

1989-01-01

The effects of atmospheric stratification and the stability of the atmospheric stratification on the scatterometer data measuring surface winds over the ocean were investigated using the boundary layer model developed by Louis (1979). A variational analysis method is proposed, which allows direct assimilation of scatterometer data. It is shown that the effect of the stability of atmospheric stratification on the wind increment is relatively small. However, it is a systematic effect, and neglecting it would consistently underestimate the winds in stable regions.

Acute myeloid leukaemia: expression of MYC protein and its association with cytogenetic risk profile and overall survival.

PubMed

Mughal, Muhammad Kashif; Akhter, Ariz; Street, Lesley; Pournazari, Payam; Shabani-Rad, Meer-Taher; Mansoor, Adnan

2017-09-01

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a clinically aggressive disease with marked genetic heterogeneity. Cytogenetic abnormalities provide the basis for risk stratification into clinically favourable, intermediate, and unfavourable groups. There are additional genetic mutations, which further influence the prognosis of patients with AML. Most of these result in molecular aberrations whose downstream target is MYC. It is therefore logical to study the relationship between MYC protein expression and cytogenetic risk groups. We studied MYC expression by immunohistochemistry in a large cohort (n = 199) of AML patients and correlated these results with cytogenetic risk profile and overall survival (OS). We illustrated differential expression of MYC protein across various cytogenetic risk groups (p = 0.03). Highest expression of MYC was noted in AML patients with favourable cytogenetic risk group. In univariate analysis, MYC expression showed significant negative influence of OS in favourable and intermediate cytogenetic risk group (p = 0.001). Interestingly, MYC expression had a protective effect in the unfavourable cytogenetic risk group. In multivariate analysis, while age and cytogenetic risk group were significant factors influencing survival, MYC expression by immunohistochemistry methods also showed some marginal impact (p = 0.069). In conclusion, we have identified differential expression of MYC protein in relation to cytogenetic risk groups in AML patients and documented its possible impact on OS in favourable and intermediate cytogenetic risk groups. These preliminary observations mandate additional studies to further investigate the routine clinical use of MYC protein expression in AML risk stratification. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cardiac PET/CT for the Evaluation of Known or Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

PubMed Central

Murthy, Venkatesh L.

2011-01-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) is increasingly being applied in the evaluation of myocardial perfusion. Cardiac PET can be performed with an increasing variety of cyclotron- and generator-produced radiotracers. Compared with single photon emission computed tomography, PET offers lower radiation exposure, fewer artifacts, improved spatial resolution, and, most important, improved diagnostic performance. With its capacity to quantify rest–peak stress left ventricular systolic function as well as coronary flow reserve, PET is superior to other methods for the detection of multivessel coronary artery disease and, potentially, for risk stratification. Coronary artery calcium scoring may be included for further risk stratification in patients with normal perfusion imaging findings. Furthermore, PET allows quantification of absolute myocardial perfusion, which also carries substantial prognostic value. Hybrid PET–computed tomography scanners allow functional evaluation of myocardial perfusion combined with anatomic characterization of the epicardial coronary arteries, thereby offering great potential for both diagnosis and management. Additional studies to further validate the prognostic value and cost effectiveness of PET are warranted. © RSNA, 2011 PMID:21918042

Prodromal Parkinsonism and Neurodegenerative Risk Stratification in REM Sleep Behavior Disorder

PubMed Central

Lawton, Michael; Rolinski, Michal; Evetts, Samuel; Baig, Fahd; Ruffmann, Claudio; Gornall, Aimie; Klein, Johannes C; Lo, Christine; Dennis, Gary; Bandmann, Oliver; Quinnell, Timothy; Zaiwalla, Zenobia; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Hu, Michele TM

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) is the most specific marker of prodromal alpha-synucleinopathies. We sought to delineate the baseline clinical characteristics of RBD and evaluate risk stratification models. Methods Clinical assessments were performed in 171 RBD, 296 control, and 119 untreated Parkinson’s (PD) participants. Putative risk measures were assessed as predictors of prodromal neurodegeneration, and Movement Disorders Society (MDS) criteria for prodromal PD were applied. Participants were screened for common leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2)/glucocerebrosidase gene (GBA) gene mutations. Results Compared to controls, participants with RBD had higher rates of solvent exposure, head injury, smoking, obesity, and antidepressant use. GBA mutations were more common in RBD, but no LRRK2 mutations were found. RBD participants performed significantly worse than controls on Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS)-III, timed “get-up-and-go”, Flamingo test, Sniffin Sticks, and cognitive tests and had worse measures of constipation, quality of life (QOL), and orthostatic hypotension. For all these measures except UPDRS-III, RBD and PD participants were equally impaired. Depression, anxiety, and apathy were worse in RBD compared to PD participants. Stratification of people with RBD according to antidepressant use, obesity, and age altered the odds ratio (OR) of hyposmia compared to controls from 3.4 to 45.5. 74% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66%, 80%) of RBD participants met the MDS criteria for probable prodromal Parkinson’s compared to 0.3% (95% CI 0.009%, 2%) of controls. Conclusions RBD are impaired across a range of clinical measures consistent with prodromal PD and suggestive of a more severe nonmotor subtype. Clinical risk stratification has the potential to select higher risk patients for neuroprotective interventions. PMID:28472425

Improving rural and remote practitioners' knowledge of the diabetic foot: findings from an educational intervention.

PubMed

Schoen, Deborah E; Gausia, Kaniz; Glance, David G; Thompson, Sandra C

2016-01-01

This study aimed to determine knowledge of national guidelines for diabetic foot assessment and risk stratification by rural and remote healthcare professionals in Western Australia and their implementation in practice. Assessment of diabetic foot knowledge, availability of equipment and delivery of foot care education in a primary healthcare setting at baseline enabled evaluation of the effectiveness of a diabetic foot education and training program for generalist healthcare professionals. This study employed a quasi-experimental pre-test/post-test study design. Healthcare practitioners' knowledge, attitudes and practice of diabetic foot assessment, diabetic foot risks, risk stratification, and use of the 2011 National Health and Medical Research Council Guidelines were investigated with an electronic pre-test survey(.) Healthcare professionals then undertook a 3-h education and training workshop before completing the electronic post-test knowledge, attitudes and practice survey. Comparison of pre-test/post-test survey findings was used to assess the change in knowledge, attitudes and intended practice due to the workshops. Two hundred and forty-six healthcare professionals from two rural and remote health regions of Western Australia participated in training workshops. Monofilaments and diabetes foot care education brochures, particularly brochures for Aboriginal people, were reported as not readily available in rural and remote health services. For most participants (58 %), their post-test knowledge score increased significantly from the pre-test score. Use of the Guidelines in clinical settings was low (19 %). The healthcare professionals' baseline diabetic foot knowledge was adequate to correctly identify the high risk category. However, stratification of the intermediate risk category was poor, even after training. This study reports the first assessment of Western Australia's rural and remote health professionals' knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding the diabetic foot. It shows that without training, generalists' levels of knowledge concerning the diabetic foot was low and they were unlikely to assess foot risk. The findings from this study in a rural and remote setting cast doubt on the ability of generalist healthcare professionals to stratify risk appropriately, especially for those at intermediate risk, without clinical decision support tools.

The evolving field of prognostication and risk stratification in MDS: Recent developments and future directions.

PubMed

Lee, Eun-Ju; Podoltsev, Nikolai; Gore, Steven D; Zeidan, Amer M

2016-01-01

The clinical course of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is characterized by wide variability reflecting the underlying genetic and biological heterogeneity of the disease. Accurate prediction of outcomes for individual patients is an integral part of the evidence-based risk/benefit calculations that are necessary for tailoring the aggressiveness of therapeutic interventions. While several prognostication tools have been developed and validated for risk stratification, each of these systems has limitations. The recent progress in genomic sequencing techniques has led to discoveries of recurrent molecular mutations in MDS patients with independent impact on relevant clinical outcomes. Reliable assays of these mutations have already entered the clinic and efforts are currently ongoing to formally incorporate mutational analysis into the existing clinicopathologic risk stratification tools. Additionally, mutational analysis holds promise for going beyond prognostication to therapeutic selection and individualized treatment-specific prediction of outcomes; abilities that would revolutionize MDS patient care. Despite these exciting developments, the best way of incorporating molecular testing for use in prognostication and prediction of outcomes in clinical practice remains undefined and further research is warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

PubMed Central

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. PMID:27084274

Improving risk-stratification of Diabetes complications using temporal data mining.

PubMed

Sacchi, Lucia; Dagliati, Arianna; Segagni, Daniele; Leporati, Paola; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2015-01-01

To understand which factor trigger worsened disease control is a crucial step in Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) patient management. The MOSAIC project, funded by the European Commission under the FP7 program, has been designed to integrate heterogeneous data sources and provide decision support in chronic T2D management through patients' continuous stratification. In this work we show how temporal data mining can be fruitfully exploited to improve risk stratification. In particular, we exploit administrative data on drug purchases to divide patients in meaningful groups. The detection of drug consumption patterns allows stratifying the population on the basis of subjects' purchasing attitude. Merging these findings with clinical values indicates the relevance of the applied methods while showing significant differences in the identified groups. This extensive approach emphasized the exploitation of administrative data to identify patterns able to explain clinical conditions.

Epidemiologic methods in clinical trials.

PubMed

Rothman, K J

1977-04-01

Epidemiologic methods developed to control confounding in non-experimental studies are equally applicable for experiments. In experiments, most confounding is usually controlled by random allocation of subjects to treatment groups, but randomization does not preclude confounding except for extremely large studies, the degree of confounding expected being inversely related to the size of the treatment groups. In experiments, as in non-experimental studies, the extent of confounding for each risk indicator should be assessed, and if sufficiently large, controlled. Confounding is properly assessed by comparing the unconfounded effect estimate to the crude effect estimate; a common error is to assess confounding by statistical tests of significance. Assessment of confounding involves its control as a prerequisite. Control is most readily and cogently achieved by stratification of the data, though with many factors to control simultaneously, multivariate analysis or a combination of multivariate analysis and stratification might be necessary.

Propeptide big-endothelin, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide and mortality. The Ludwigshafen risk and cardiovascular health (LURIC) study.

PubMed

Gergei, Ingrid; Krämer, Bernhard K; Scharnagl, Hubert; Stojakovic, Tatjana; März, Winfried; Mondorf, Ulrich

The endothelin system (Big-ET-1) is a key regulator in cardiovascular (CV) disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). We have examined the incremental value of Big-ET-1 in predicting total and CV mortality next to the well-established CV risk marker N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP). Big-ET-1 and NT-proBNP were determined in 2829 participants referred for coronary angiography (follow-up 9.9 years). Big-ET-1 is an independent predictor of total, CV mortality and death due to CHF. The conjunct use of Big-ET-1 and NT-proBNP improves the risk stratification of patients with intermediate to high risk of CV death and CHF. Big-ET-1improves risk stratification in patients referred for coronary angiography.

Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making

PubMed Central

Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica

2018-01-01

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body’s organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a trustful safe therapeutic relationship. PMID:29492383

Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making.

PubMed

Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica; Deng, Mario

2018-01-01

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body's organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a trustful safe therapeutic relationship.

Breast Cancer Screening in the Era of Density Notification Legislation: Summary of 2014 Massachusetts Experience and Suggestion of An Evidence-Based Management Algorithm by Multi-disciplinary Expert Panel

PubMed Central

Freer, Phoebe E.; Slanetz, Priscilla J.; Haas, Jennifer S.; Tung, Nadine M.; Hughes, Kevin S.; Armstrong, Katrina; Semine, A. Alan; Troyan, Susan L.; Birdwell, Robyn L.

2015-01-01

Purpose Stemming from breast density notification legislation in Massachusetts effective 2015, we sought to develop a collaborative evidence-based approach to density notification that could be used by practitioners across the state. Our goal was to develop an evidence-based consensus management algorithm to help patients and health care providers follow best practices to implement a coordinated, evidence-based, cost-effective, sustainable practice and to standardize care in recommendations for supplemental screening. Methods We formed the Massachusetts Breast Risk Education and Assessment Task Force (MA-BREAST) a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary panel of expert radiologists, surgeons, primary care physicians, and oncologists to develop a collaborative approach to density notification legislation. Using evidence-based data from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER), the Cochrane review, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines, American Cancer Society (ACS) recommendations, and American College of Radiology (ACR) appropriateness criteria, the group collaboratively developed an evidence-based best-practices algorithm. Results The expert consensus algorithm uses breast density as one element in the risk stratification to determine the need for supplemental screening. Women with dense breasts and otherwise low risk (<15% lifetime risk), do not routinely require supplemental screening per the expert consensus. Women of high risk (>20% lifetime) should consider supplemental screening MRI in addition to routine mammography regardless of breast density. Conclusion We report the development of the multi-disciplinary collaborative approach to density notification. We propose a risk stratification algorithm to assess personal level of risk to determine the need for supplemental screening for an individual woman. PMID:26290416

Continuous opioid treatment for chronic noncancer pain: a time for moderation in prescribing.

PubMed

Colameco, Stephen; Coren, Joshua S; Ciervo, Carman A

2009-07-01

Physicians have embraced the concept of long-term opioid treatment for chronic noncancer pain (CNCP), as evidenced by increased prescribing. Many patients have benefited from more liberal opioid prescribing, but many have not, and prescription opioid abuse has risen significantly coincident with increased prescribing. Because of the potentially serious adverse effects of opioids, physicians must balance potential benefits against risks, especially in individuals at risk for opioid misuse, abuse, or dependence. This article reviews long-term, continuous opioid treatment of CNCP, current treatment guidelines, addiction risk stratification, opioid-induced hyperalgesia, and endocrine dysfunction.

ERβ Expression and Breast Cancer Risk Prediction for Women with Atypias

PubMed Central

Hieken, Tina J; Carter, Jodi M; Hawse, John R; Hoskin, Tanya L; Bois, Melanie; Frost, Marlene; Hartmann, Lynn C; Radisky, Derek C; Visscher, Daniel W; Degnim, Amy C

2015-01-01

Estrogen receptor beta (ERβ) is highly expressed in normal breast epithelium and a putative tumor suppressor. Atypical hyperplasia substantially increases breast cancer risk, but identification of biomarkers to further improve risk stratification is needed. We evaluated ERβ expression in breast tissues from women with atypical hyperplasia and association with subsequent breast cancer risk. ERβ expression was examined by immunohistochemistry in a well-characterized 171 women cohort with atypical hyperplasia diagnosed 1967–1991. Nuclear ERβ percent and intensity was scored in the atypia and adjacent normal lobules. An ERβ sum score (percent + intensity) was calculated and grouped as low, moderate or high. Competing risks regression was used to assess associations of ERβ expression with breast cancer risk. After 15 years median follow-up, 36 women developed breast cancer. ERβ expression was lower in atypia lobules than normal lobules, by percent staining and intensity (both p<0.001). Higher ERβ expression in the atypia or normal lobules, evaluated by percent staining, intensity or sum score, decreased the risk of subsequent breast cancer by 2 (p=0.04) and 2.5-fold (p=0.006). High normal lobule ERβ expression conferred the strongest protective effect in pre-menopausal women: the 20-year cumulative incidence of breast cancer was 0% for women

Clinical Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators

PubMed Central

Hardy, Judy; Yee, Raymond; Healey, Jeffrey S.; Birnie, David; Simpson, Christopher S.; Crystal, Eugene; Mangat, Iqwal; Nanthakumar, Kumaraswamy; Wang, Xuesong; Krahn, Andrew D.; Dorian, Paul; Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.

2015-01-01

Background— A conceptualized model may be useful for understanding risk stratification of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators considering the competing risks of appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock versus mortality. Methods and Results— In a prospective, multicenter, population-based cohort with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% referred for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator, we developed dual risk stratification models to determine the competing risks of appropriate defibrillator shock versus mortality using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model. Among 7020 patients referred, 3445 underwent defibrillator implant (79.7% men, median, 66 years [25th, 75th: 58–73]). During 5918 person-years of follow-up, appropriate shock occurred in 204 patients (3.6 shocks/100 person-years) and 292 died (4.9 deaths/100 person-years). Competing risk predictors of appropriate shock included nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, atrial fibrillation, serum creatinine concentration, digoxin or amiodarone use, and QRS duration near 130-ms peak. One-year cumulative incidence of appropriate shock was 0.9% in the lowest risk category, and 1.7%, 2.5%, 4.9%, and 9.3% in low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Hazard ratios for appropriate shock ranged from 4.04 to 7.79 in the highest 3 deciles (all P≤0.001 versus lowest risk). Cumulative incidence of 1-year death was 0.6%, 1.9%, 3.3%, 6.2%, and 17.7% in lowest, low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Mortality hazard ratios ranged from 11.48 to 36.22 in the highest 3 deciles (all P<0.001 versus lowest risk). Conclusions— Simultaneous estimation of risks of appropriate shock and mortality can be performed using clinical variables, providing a potential framework for identification of patients who are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator. PMID:26224792

Comments: Should Principal Stratification Be Used to Study Mediational Processes?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2012-01-01

Principal stratification provides an approach to study the effect of an exposure on an outcome within strata defined by the effect of the exposure on some third, posttreatment, variable (Frangakis & Rubin, 2002). There has been more recent interest in using principal stratification to study the extent to which the effect of an exposure on an…

Biomarkers from distinct biological pathways improve early risk stratification in medical emergency patients: the multinational, prospective, observational TRIAGE study.

PubMed

Schuetz, Philipp; Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Haubitz, Sebastian; Faessler, Lukas; Kutz, Alexander; Conca, Antoinette; Reutlinger, Barbara; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat

2015-10-29

Early risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) is vital to reduce time to effective treatment in high-risk patients and to improve patient flow. Yet, there is a lack of investigations evaluating the incremental usefulness of multiple biomarkers measured upon admission from distinct biological pathways for predicting fatal outcome and high initial treatment urgency in unselected ED patients in a multicenter and multinational setting. We included consecutive, adult, medical patients seeking ED care into this observational, cohort study in Switzerland, France and the USA. We recorded initial clinical parameters and batch-measured prognostic biomarkers of inflammation (pro-adrenomedullin [ProADM]), stress (copeptin) and infection (procalcitonin). During a 30-day follow-up, 331 of 7132 (4.6 %) participants reached the primary endpoint of death within 30 days. In logistic regression models adjusted for conventional risk factors available at ED admission, all three biomarkers strongly predicted the risk of death (AUC 0.83, 0.78 and 0.75), ICU admission (AUC 0.67, 0.69 and 0.62) and high initial triage priority (0.67, 0.66 and 0.58). For the prediction of death, ProADM significantly improved regression models including (a) clinical information available at ED admission (AUC increase from 0.79 to 0.84), (b) full clinical information at ED discharge (AUC increase from 0.85 to 0.88), and (c) triage information (AUC increase from 0.67 to 0.83) (p <0.01 for each comparison). Similarly, ProADM also improved clinical models for prediction of ICU admission and high initial treatment urgency. Results were robust in regard to predefined patient subgroups by center, main diagnosis, presenting symptoms, age and gender. Combination of clinical information with results of blood biomarkers measured upon ED admission allows early and more adequate risk stratification in individual unselected medical ED patients. A randomized trial is needed to answer the question whether biomarker-guided initial patient triage reduces time to initial treatment of high-risk patients in the ED and thereby improves patient flow and clinical outcomes. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01768494 . Registered January 9, 2013.

Using procalcitonin-guided algorithms to improve antimicrobial therapy in ICU patients with respiratory infections and sepsis.

PubMed

Schuetz, Philipp; Raad, Issam; Amin, Devendra N

2013-10-01

In patients with systemic bacterial infections hospitalized in ICUs, the inflammatory biomarker procalcitonin (PCT) has been shown to aid diagnosis, antibiotic stewardship, and risk stratification. Our aim is to summarize recent evidence about the utility of PCT in the critical care setting and discuss the potential benefits and limitations of PCT when used for clinical decision-making. A growing body of evidence supports PCT use to differentiate bacterial from viral respiratory infections (including influenza), to help risk stratify patients, and to guide decisions about optimal duration of antibiotic therapy. Different PCT protocols were evaluated for these and similar purposes in randomized controlled trials in patients with varying severities of predominantly respiratory tract infection and sepsis. These trials demonstrated effectiveness of monitoring PCT to de-escalate antibiotic treatment earlier without increasing rates of relapsing infections or other adverse outcomes. Although serial PCT measurement has shown value in risk stratification of ICU patients, PCT-guided antibiotic escalation protocols have not yet shown benefit for patients. Inclusion of PCT data in clinical algorithms improves individualized decision-making regarding antibiotic treatment in patients in critical care for respiratory infections or sepsis. Future research should focus on use of repeated PCT measurements to risk-stratify patients and guide treatment to improve their outcomes.

A three-gene expression signature model for risk stratification of patients with neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M; Brodeur, Garrett M; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

2012-04-01

Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P < 0.001; set 2 OS: 0.97 ± 0.02 vs. 0.61 ± 0.1, P = 0.005, EFS: 0.91 ± 0.8 vs. 0.56 ± 0.1, P = 0.005; and set 3 OS: 0.99 ± 0.01 vs. 0.56 ± 0.06, EFS: 0.96 ± 0.02 vs. 0.43 ± 0.05, both P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that the model was an independent marker for survival (P < 0.001, for all). In comparison with accepted risk stratification systems, the model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. ©2012 AACR.

A Three-Gene Expression Signature Model for Risk Stratification of Patients with Neuroblastoma

PubMed Central

Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V.; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M.; Brodeur, Garrett M.; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

2014-01-01

Purpose Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. Experimental Design The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. Results On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P < 0.001; set 2 OS: 0.97 ± 0.02 vs. 0.61 ± 0.1, P = 0.005, EFS: 0.91 ± 0.8 vs. 0.56 ± 0.1, P = 0.005; and set 3 OS: 0.99 ± 0.01 vs. 0.56 ± 0.06, EFS: 0.96 ± 0.02 vs. 0.43 ± 0.05, both P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that the model was an independent marker for survival (P < 0.001, for all). In comparison with accepted risk stratification systems, the model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. Conclusion We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. PMID:22328561

Intermediate outcomes in randomized clinical trials: an introduction

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Intermediate outcomes are common and typically on the causal pathway to the final outcome. Some examples include noncompliance, missing data, and truncation by death like pregnancy (e.g. when the trial intervention is given to non-pregnant women and the final outcome is preeclampsia, defined only on pregnant women). The intention-to-treat approach does not account properly for them, and more appropriate alternative approaches like principal stratification are not yet widely known. The purposes of this study are to inform researchers that the intention-to-treat approach unfortunately does not fit all problems we face in experimental research, to introduce the principal stratification approach for dealing with intermediate outcomes, and to illustrate its application to a trial of long term calcium supplementation in women at high risk of preeclampsia. Methods Principal stratification and related concepts are introduced. Two ways for estimating causal effects are discussed and their application is illustrated using the calcium trial, where noncompliance and pregnancy are considered as intermediate outcomes, and preeclampsia is the main final outcome. Results The limitations of traditional approaches and methods for dealing with intermediate outcomes are demonstrated. The steps, assumptions and required calculations involved in the application of the principal stratification approach are discussed in detail in the case of our calcium trial. Conclusions The intention-to-treat approach is a very sound one but unfortunately it does not fit all problems we find in randomized clinical trials; this is particularly the case for intermediate outcomes, where alternative approaches like principal stratification should be considered. PMID:23510143

The use of adenosine and adenosine triphosphate testing in the diagnosis, risk stratification and management of patients with syncope: current evidence and future perspectives.

PubMed

Fragakis, Nikolaos; Antoniadis, Antonios P; Saviano, Massimo; Vassilikos, Vassilios; Pappone, Carlo

2015-03-15

Syncope is a significant source of cardiovascular-related morbidity yet the etiology is frequently obscure and the identification of patients at highest risk is challenging. Adenosine (AD) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) administrations have been suggested as potentially useful non-invasive tools in the diagnostic workup of patients with neurally-mediated or bradycardia-related syncope. It has been postulated that both compounds by modulating the autonomic innervation in the heart and exerting negative chronotropic and dromotropic effects in the conduction system, may unmask the mechanism of syncope. However, the clinical implications derived from the efficacy of both tests in the investigation of syncope remain unclear mainly due to inconclusive and occasionally contradictory results of published studies. This review article summarizes recent and past information in the use of ATP and AD in the investigation of syncope with emphasis on clinical trials. We present the current level of evidence for the use of these agents in clinical practice, identify areas where further research is warranted and highlight the future perspectives of these agents as complements to an accurate risk-stratification of patients with syncope. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Value of Elastic Modulus Index as a Novel Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification by Dimensional Speckle-Tracking Carotid Ultrasonography

PubMed Central

Yoon, Ji Hyun; Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Lee, Jinyong; Ryoo, Hojin; Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Chung, Namsik

2016-01-01

Background Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) and the presence of carotid plaque have been used for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, however, the association between multi-directional functional properties of carotid artery and CVD has not been fully elucidated. We sought to explore the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery in relation to cardiovascular risk. Methods Four hundred one patients who underwent carotid ultrasound were enrolled between January 2010 and April 2013. A high risk of CVD was defined as more than 20% of 10-year risk based on the Framingham risk score. Using a speckle-tracking technique, the longitudinal and radial movements were analyzed in the B-mode images. Peak longitudinal and radial displacements, strain and strain rate were also measured. Beta stiffness and elastic modulus index were calculated from the radial measurements. Results Of the overall sample, 13% (52) of patients comprised the high-risk group. In multivariate logistic regression, CIMT and elastic modulus index were independently associated with a high-risk of CVD {odds ratio (OR): 1.810 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.249–2.622] and OR: 1.767 (95% CI: 1.177–2.652); p = 0.002, 0.006, respectively}. The combination of CIMT and elastic modulus index correlated with a high-risk of CVD more so than CIMT alone. Conclusion The elastic modulus index of the carotid artery might serve as a novel surrogate marker of high-risk CVD. Measurement of the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery using the speckle tracking technique has potential for providing further information over conventional B-mode ultrasound for stratification of CVD risk. PMID:27721952

External Validation of the HERNIAscore: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Cherla, Deepa V; Moses, Maya L; Mueck, Krislynn M; Hannon, Craig; Ko, Tien C; Kao, Lillian S; Liang, Mike K

2017-09-01

The HERNIAscore is a ventral incisional hernia (VIH) risk assessment tool that uses only preoperative variables and predictable intraoperative variables. The aim of this study was to validate and modify, if needed, the HERNIAscore in an external dataset. This was a retrospective observational study of all patients undergoing resection for gastrointestinal malignancy from 2011 through 2015 at a safety-net hospital. The primary end point was clinical postoperative VIH. Patients were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups based on HERNIAscore. A revised HERNIAscore was calculated with the addition of earlier abdominal operation as a categorical variable. Cox regression of incisional hernia with stratification by risk class was performed. Incidence rates of clinical VIH formation within each risk class were also calculated. Two hundred and forty-seven patents were enrolled. On Cox regression, in addition to the 3 variables of the HERNIAscore (BMI, COPD, and incision length), earlier abdominal operation was also predictive of VIH. The revised HERNIAscore demonstrated improved predictive accuracy for clinical VIH. Although the original HERNIAscore effectively stratified the risk of an incisional radiographic VIH developing, the revised HERNIAscore provided a statistically significant stratification for both clinical and radiographic VIHs in this patient cohort. We have externally validated and improved the HERNIAscore. The revised HERNIAscore uses BMI, incision length, COPD, and earlier abdominal operation to predict risk of postoperative incisional hernia. Future research should assess methods to prevent incisional hernias in moderate-to-high risk patients. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atherothrombotic Risk Stratification and Ezetimibe for Secondary Prevention.

PubMed

Bohula, Erin A; Morrow, David A; Giugliano, Robert P; Blazing, Michael A; He, Ping; Park, Jeong-Gun; Murphy, Sabina A; White, Jennifer A; Kesaniemi, Y Antero; Pedersen, Terje R; Brady, Adrian J; Mitchel, Yale; Cannon, Christopher P; Braunwald, Eugene

2017-02-28

Ezetimibe improves cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients stabilized after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) when added to statin therapy. After ACS, patients vary considerably in their risk for recurrent CV events. This study tested the hypothesis that atherothrombotic risk stratification may be useful to identify post-ACS patients who have the greatest potential for benefit from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy. The TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) is a simple 9-point risk stratification tool, previously developed in a large population with atherothrombosis to predict CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), and ischemic stroke (CV death/MI/ischemic cerebrovascular accident [iCVA]). The current study applied this tool prospectively to 17,717 post-ACS patients randomized either to ezetimibe and simvastatin or to placebo and simvastatin in IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial). Treatment efficacy was assessed by baseline risk for CV death/MI/iCVA, the IMPROVE-IT composite endpoints (CE), and individual component endpoints at 7 years. All 9 clinical variables in the TRS 2°P were independent risk indicators for CV death/MI/iCVA (p < 0.001). The integer-based scheme showed a strong graded relationship with the rate of CV death/MI/iCVA, the trial CE, and the individual components (p trend <0.0001 for each). High-risk patients (n = 4,393; 25%), defined by ≥3 risk indicators, had a 6.3% (95% confidence interval: 2.9% to 9.7%) absolute risk reduction in CV death/MI/iCVA at 7 years with ezetimibe/simvastatin, thus translating to a number-needed-to-treat of 16. Intermediate-risk patients (2 risk indicators; n = 5,292; 30%) had a 2.2% (95% confidence interval: -0.3% to 4.6%) absolute risk reduction. Low-risk patients (0 to 1 risk indicators; n = 8,032; 45%) did not appear to derive benefit from the addition of ezetimibe (p interaction = 0.010). Similar findings were observed for the IMPROVE-IT primary CE. Atherothrombotic risk stratification using the TRS 2°P identifies high-risk patients who derive greatest benefit from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy for secondary prevention after ACS. (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial [IMPROVE-IT]; NCT00202878). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spirometry: predicting risk and outcome.

PubMed

Brunelli, Alessandro; Rocco, Gaetano

2008-02-01

Predicted postoperative FEV1 is certainly the most widely used parameter in preoperative risk stratification [54] and the measure recommend by BTS and ACCP functional guidelines as a first step in the screening of patients for lung resection surgery. Nevertheless, recent evidences have demonstrated that ppoFEV1 is not a reliable predictor of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications in patients with preoperative impaired pulmonary function. This may be because of the fact that the resection of a portion of lung in patients with obstructive disease determines only a minimal loss, or even an improvement, in overall respiratory function and exercise tolerance. This lung volume reduction effect takes place very early, since the first postoperative days, balancing what ever negative physiologic effects a thoracotomy and lung resection may entail. In addition to its poor predictive role in COPD patients, ppoFEV1 largely underestimate the actual loss in the very first days after operation, when most of the complications develop. The rationale to use a parameter which is poorly correlated with the pulmonary function at the moment the complications occur seems unwarranted. At the very best, ppoFEV1 appears a weak surrogate of the immediate postoperative FEV1. The FEV1 measured on the first postoperative day may be 30% less than predicted. Corrective equations have been published to correct this discrepancy with the aim to improve risk stratification.

Noninvasive Computed Tomography–based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial

PubMed Central

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. Conclusions: CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:26052977

Noninvasive Computed Tomography-based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial.

PubMed

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2015-09-15

Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.

Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Pimentel, Maurício; Zimerman, Leandro Ioschpe; Rohde, Luis Eduardo

2014-01-01

Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure. PMID:25352509

Coronary heart disease risk stratification: pitfalls and possibilities.

PubMed

Negi, Smita; Nambi, Vijay

Atherosclerosis of the coronary arteries, or coronary heart disease (CHD), is the most common cause of mortality in U.S. adults. The pathobiology of atherosclerosis and its complications is a continuum. At one end of the spectrum are young individuals without atherosclerotic disease who have not yet been exposed to lifestyle or other risk factors, and at the other end are patients with manifest atherosclerosis - myocardial infarction, stroke, and disabling peripheral arterial disease - where risk of recurrent disease and death is driven by the same factors initially responsible for the emergence of disease. However, it is clear that while risk factors are important in the development of CHD, not everyone with risk factors develops the disease and not everyone with CHD has risk factors. Furthermore, even similar degrees of exposure to a risk factor leads to disease in some individuals and not in others. Risk prediction, which is crucial in predicting and hence preventing disease, therefore becomes very challenging. In this article we review the currently available risk stratification tools for predicting CHD risk and discuss potential ways to improve risk prediction.

Contemporary approach to essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera.

PubMed

Aruch, Daniel; Mascarenhas, John

2016-03-01

Management of polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia requires understanding of the key concepts regarding diagnosis, risk stratification, and management. Essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera are among the Philadelphia chromosome negative myeloproliferative neoplasms. They are characterized by overproduction of blood cells and their complications include thrombosis, hemorrhage, and progression to myelofibrosis or acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Management of essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera requires recognition of the risk factors for thrombosis and hemorrhage. Risk stratification allows the clinician to make a treatment plan that may include antiplatelet therapy with aspirin alone or in combination with therapeutic phlebotomy in the case of polycythemia vera, or cytoreductive therapy for high-risk patients with either essential thrombocythemia or polycythemia vera. Hydroxyurea remains first-line therapy for high-risk patients with essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera, whereas second-line options include anagrelide, pegylated-IFNα-2a, and the JAK1/2 inhibitor ruxolitinib. The current evaluation of pegylated-IFNα-2a in global phase II and III studies will provide clarity to the potential long-term benefit and risks associated with this biologic in patients with essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera. Novel therapeutics aimed at prevention of disease progression to myelofibrosis/AML are the focus of current clinical trials. Risk stratification of patients with essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera by age and/or history of thrombosis provides the basis of risk adapted therapeutic intervention. Aggressive control of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, the use of antiplatelet agents, control of the hematocrit less than 45% in polycythemia vera, and cytoreductive therapy in high-risk essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera patients is the focus of management. The exact role of IFN-α remains undefined and under active investigation, and the recent approval of ruxolitinib provides patients with polycythemia vera a second-line option.

Risk stratification of prostate cancer: integrating multiparametric MRI, nomograms and biomarkers

PubMed Central

Watson, Matthew J; George, Arvin K; Maruf, Mahir; Frye, Thomas P; Muthigi, Akhil; Kongnyuy, Michael; Valayil, Subin G; Pinto, Peter A

2016-01-01

Accurate risk stratification of prostate cancer is achieved with a number of existing tools to ensure the identification of at-risk patients, characterization of disease aggressiveness, prediction of cancer burden and extrapolation of treatment outcomes for appropriate management of the disease. Statistical tables and nomograms using classic clinicopathological variables have long been the standard of care. However, the introduction of multiparametric MRI, along with fusion-guided targeted prostate biopsy and novel biomarkers, are being assimilated into clinical practice. The majority of studies to date present the outcomes of each in isolation. The current review offers a critical and objective assessment regarding the integration of multiparametric MRI and fusion-guided prostate biopsy with novel biomarkers and predictive nomograms in contemporary clinical practice. PMID:27400645

The Value of Circulating Biomarkers in Bicuspid Aortic Valve-Associated Aortopathy.

PubMed

Naito, Shiho; Hillebrand, Mathias; Bernhardt, Alexander Martin Justus; Jagodzinski, Annika; Conradi, Lenard; Detter, Christian; Sydow, Karsten; Reichenspurner, Hermann; Kodolitsch, Yskert von; Girdauskas, Evaldas

2018-06-01

Traditional risk stratification model of bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) aortopathy is based on measurement of maximal cross-sectional aortic diameter, definition of proximal aortic shape, and aortic stiffness/elasticity parameters. However, conventional imaging-based criteria are unable to provide reliable information regarding the risk stratification in BAV aortopathy, especially considering the heterogeneous nature of BAV disease. Given those limitations of conventional imaging, there is a growing clinical interest to use circulating biomarkers in the screening process for thoracic aortic aneurysms as well as in the risk-assessment algorithms. We aimed to systematically review currently available biomarkers, which may be of value to predict the natural evolution of aortopathy in individuals with BAV. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A new gender-specific model for skin autofluorescence risk stratification

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Muhammad S.; Damanhouri, Zoheir A.; Kimhofer, Torben; Mosli, Hala H.; Holmes, Elaine

2015-01-01

Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) are believed to play a significant role in the pathophysiology of a variety of diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Non-invasive skin autofluorescence (SAF) measurement serves as a proxy for tissue accumulation of AGEs. We assessed reference SAF and skin reflectance (SR) values in a Saudi population (n = 1,999) and evaluated the existing risk stratification scale. The mean SAF of the study cohort was 2.06 (SD = 0.57) arbitrary units (AU), which is considerably higher than the values reported for other populations. We show a previously unreported and significant difference in SAF values between men and women, with median (range) values of 1.77 AU (0.79–4.84 AU) and 2.20 AU (0.75–4.59 AU) respectively (p-value « 0.01). Age, presence of diabetes and BMI were the most influential variables in determining SAF values in men, whilst in female participants, SR was also highly correlated with SAF. Diabetes, hypertension and obesity all showed strong association with SAF, particularly when gender differences were taken into account. We propose an adjusted, gender-specific disease risk stratification scheme for Middle Eastern populations. SAF is a potentially valuable clinical screening tool for cardiovascular risk assessment but risk scores should take gender and ethnicity into consideration for accurate diagnosis. PMID:25974028

Do Risky Friends Change the Efficacy of a Primary Care Brief Intervention for Adolescent Alcohol Use?

PubMed Central

Louis-Jacques, Jennifer; Knight, John R; Sherritt, Lon; Van Hook, Shari; Harris, Sion K

2013-01-01

Purpose To determine if peer risk (having friends who drink or approve of drinking) modifies the effects of a computer-facilitated Screening and provider Brief Advice (cSBA) intervention on adolescent alcohol use. Methods We assessed intervention effect using logistic regression modeling with generalized estimating equations on a sample of 2092 adolescents. Effect modification by peer risk was analyzed separately for alcohol initiation (drinking at follow-up in baseline non-drinkers) and cessation (no drinking at follow-up in baseline drinkers) by testing an interaction term (treatment condition by peer risk). Interpretation of the interaction effect was further clarified by subsequent stratification by peer risk. Results The intervention effect on alcohol cessation was significantly greater among those with peer risk (aRRR: Risk 1.44, 1.18–1.76 vs. No Risk 0.98, 0.41–2.36) at 3 months follow-up. There was no such finding for alcohol initiation. Conclusions Alcohol screening and brief provider counseling may differentially benefit adolescent drinkers with drinking friends. PMID:24216313

Brugada syndrome: diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.

PubMed

Adler, Arnon

2016-01-01

Asymptomatic patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS) have a small, but not trivial, risk of cardiac events. Their risk stratification and its impact on their management are controversial. The review focuses on the clinical aspects of BrS with special emphasis on the asymptomatic patient. Emerging data suggest that drug and fever-induced type I Brugada patterns are more common than previously appreciated. Although preliminary, these data may imply that asymptomatic patients with induced Brugada pattern are at an even lower risk than currently estimated.The latest data regarding induced ventricular arrhythmias during electrophysiological studies support its use as an indication for an implantable cardioverter defibrillator; however, this issue remains highly controversial.Several new risk markers, such as presence of the Brugada pattern in infero-lateral leads or the concomitant finding of an early repolarization pattern, have recently been proposed. Most asymptomatic BrS patients are at low risk of cardiac events. The presence of new risk markers in this population may prompt consideration of primary prevention measures; however, data supporting this approach are still limited.

Changes in oxidative patterns during dormancy break by warm and cold stratification in seeds of an edible fruit tree.

PubMed

Shalimu, Dilinuer; Sun, Jia; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Sun, Liwei; Liu, Yujun

2016-01-01

The transition from seed dormancy to germination is triggered by environmental factors, and in pomegranate (Punica granatum) seeds higher germination percentages are achieved by warm + cold stratification rather than by cold stratification alone. Our objective was to define the pattern of internal oxidative changes in pomegranate seeds as dormancy was being broken by warm + cold stratification and by cold stratification alone. Embryos isolated from seeds after 1-42 days of warm stratification, after 56 days of warm stratification + 7, 28 or 56 days of cold stratification, and after 1-84 days of cold stratification alone, were used in biochemical tests. Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), nitric oxide (NO), proline, lipid peroxidation, protein carbonylation, and activities of the scavenging enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD), hydrogen peroxide enzyme and peroxidase in the embryos were assessed by colorimetric methods. Our results indicated that warm + cold stratification had a stronger dormancy-breaking effect than cold stratification (85% versus 50% germination), which may be attributed to a higher yield of H2O2, NO, lipid peroxidation and protein carbonylation in warm + cold stratification. Furthermore, warm + cold stratification-induced H2O2 change led to greater changes (elevation followed by attenuation) in activities of the scavenging enzymes than that induced by cold stratification alone. These results indicated that restriction of the level of reactive oxygen species change within a positive and safe range by such enzymes promoted seed germination. In addition, a relatively strong elevation of proline during warm + cold stratification also contributed to dormancy breakage and subsequent germination. In conclusion, the strong dormancy alleviating effect of warm + cold stratification on pomegranate seeds may be attributed to the corresponding active oxidative change via H2O2, NO, proline, malondialdehyde, protein carbonylation and scavenging enzymes. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Changes in oxidative patterns during dormancy break by warm and cold stratification in seeds of an edible fruit tree

PubMed Central

Shalimu, Dilinuer; Sun, Jia; Baskin, Carol C.; Baskin, Jerry M.; Sun, Liwei; Liu, Yujun

2016-01-01

The transition from seed dormancy to germination is triggered by environmental factors, and in pomegranate (Punica granatum) seeds higher germination percentages are achieved by warm + cold stratification rather than by cold stratification alone. Our objective was to define the pattern of internal oxidative changes in pomegranate seeds as dormancy was being broken by warm + cold stratification and by cold stratification alone. Embryos isolated from seeds after 1–42 days of warm stratification, after 56 days of warm stratification + 7, 28 or 56 days of cold stratification, and after 1–84 days of cold stratification alone, were used in biochemical tests. Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), nitric oxide (NO), proline, lipid peroxidation, protein carbonylation, and activities of the scavenging enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD), hydrogen peroxide enzyme and peroxidase in the embryos were assessed by colorimetric methods. Our results indicated that warm + cold stratification had a stronger dormancy-breaking effect than cold stratification (85% versus 50% germination), which may be attributed to a higher yield of H2O2, NO, lipid peroxidation and protein carbonylation in warm + cold stratification. Furthermore, warm + cold stratification-induced H2O2 change led to greater changes (elevation followed by attenuation) in activities of the scavenging enzymes than that induced by cold stratification alone. These results indicated that restriction of the level of reactive oxygen species change within a positive and safe range by such enzymes promoted seed germination. In addition, a relatively strong elevation of proline during warm + cold stratification also contributed to dormancy breakage and subsequent germination. In conclusion, the strong dormancy alleviating effect of warm + cold stratification on pomegranate seeds may be attributed to the corresponding active oxidative change via H2O2, NO, proline, malondialdehyde, protein carbonylation and scavenging enzymes. PMID:27154624

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Thermal Stratification and Vertical Mixing in a Shallow Fresh Water Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yichen; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Wei; Ren, Xia; Gao, Yaqi; Liu, Shoudong; Lee, Xuhui

2018-04-01

Among several influential factors, the geographical position and depth of a lake determine its thermal structure. In temperate zones, shallow lakes show significant differences in thermal stratification compared to deep lakes. Here, the variation in thermal stratification in Lake Taihu, a shallow fresh water lake, is studied systematically. Lake Taihu is a warm polymictic lake whose thermal stratification varies in short cycles of one day to a few days. The thermal stratification in Lake Taihu has shallow depths in the upper region and a large amplitude in the temperature gradient, the maximum of which exceeds 5°C m-1. The water temperature in the entire layer changes in a relatively consistent manner. Therefore, compared to a deep lake at similar latitude, the thermal stratification in Lake Taihu exhibits small seasonal differences, but the wide variation in the short term becomes important. Shallow polymictic lakes share the characteristic of diurnal mixing. Prominent differences on the duration and frequency of long-lasting thermal stratification are found in these lakes, which may result from the differences of local climate, lake depth, and fetch. A prominent response of thermal stratification to weather conditions is found, being controlled by the stratifying effect of solar radiation and the mixing effect of wind disturbance. Other than the diurnal stratification and convection, the representative responses of thermal stratification to these two factors with contrary effects are also discussed. When solar radiation increases, stronger wind is required to prevent the lake from becoming stratified. A daily average wind speed greater than 6 m s-1 can maintain the mixed state in Lake Taihu. Moreover, wind-induced convection is detected during thermal stratification. Due to lack of solar radiation, convection occurs more easily in nighttime than in daytime. Convection occurs frequently in fall and winter, whereas long-lasting and stable stratification causes less convection in summer.

Lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, Andreas; Fischer, Claudia; Schroeder, Rico; Figulla, Hans R; Goernig, Matthias

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study were to introduce a new type of heart-rate variability analysis improving risk stratification in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and to provide additional information about impaired heart beat generation in these patients. Beat-to-beat intervals (BBI) of 30-min ECGs recorded from 91 DCM patients and 21 healthy subjects were analyzed applying the lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis (LSPPA) method. LSPPA includes the Poincaré plot reconstruction with lags of 1-100, rotating the cloud of points, its normalized segmentation adapted to their standard deviations, and finally, a frequency-dependent clustering. The lags were combined into eight different clusters representing specific frequency bands within 0.012-1.153 Hz. Statistical differences between low- and high-risk DCM could be found within the clusters II-VIII (e.g., cluster IV: 0.033-0.038 Hz; p = 0.0002; sensitivity = 85.7 %; specificity = 71.4 %). The multivariate statistics led to a sensitivity of 92.9 %, specificity of 85.7 % and an area under the curve of 92.1 % discriminating these patient groups. We introduced the LSPPA method to investigate time correlations in BBI time series. We found that LSPPA contributes considerably to risk stratification in DCM and yields the highest discriminant power in the low and very low-frequency bands.

Cloning of the first human anti-JCPyV/VP1 neutralizing monoclonal antibody: epitope definition and implications in risk stratification of patients under natalizumab therapy.

PubMed

Diotti, Roberta Antonia; Mancini, Nicasio; Clementi, Nicola; Sautto, Giuseppe; Moreno, Guisella Janett; Criscuolo, Elena; Cappelletti, Francesca; Man, Petr; Forest, Eric; Remy, Louise; Giannecchini, Simone; Clementi, Massimo; Burioni, Roberto

2014-08-01

JC virus (JCPyV) has gained novel clinical importance as cause of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare demyelinating disease recently associated to immunomodulatory drugs, such as natalizumab used in multiple sclerosis (MS) cases. Little is known about the mechanisms leading to PML, and this makes the need of PML risk stratification among natalizumab-treated patients very compelling. Clinical and laboratory-based risk-stratification markers have been proposed, one of these is represented by the JCPyV-seropositive status, which includes about 54% of MS patients. We recently proposed to investigate the possible protective role of neutralizing humoral immune response in preventing JCPyV reactivation. In this proof-of-concept study, by cloning the first human monoclonal antibody (GRE1) directed against a neutralizing epitope on JCPyV/VP1, we optimized a robust anti-JCPyV neutralization assay. This allowed us to evaluate the neutralizing activity in JCPyV-positive sera from MS patients, demonstrating the lack of correlation between the level of anti-JCPyV antibody and anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity. Relevant consequences may derive from future clinical studies induced by these findings; indeed the study of the serum anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity could allow not only a better risk stratification of the patients during natalizumab treatment, but also a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms leading to PML, highlighting the contribution of peripheral versus central nervous system JCPyV reactivation. Noteworthy, the availability of GRE1 could allow the design of novel immunoprophylactic strategies during the immunomodulatory treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health study (BIRCH) protocol: rationale and design of a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study to identify novel cardiovascular risk indicators in Aboriginal Australian and Torres Strait Islander adults.

PubMed

Rémond, Marc G W; Stewart, Simon; Carrington, Melinda J; Marwick, Thomas H; Kingwell, Bronwyn A; Meikle, Peter; O'Brien, Darren; Marshall, Nathaniel S; Maguire, Graeme P

2017-08-23

Of the estimated 10-11 year life expectancy gap between Indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) and non-Indigenous Australians, approximately one quarter is attributable to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk prediction of CVD is imperfect, but particularly limited for Indigenous Australians. The BIRCH (Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health) project aims to identify and assess existing and novel markers of early disease and risk in Indigenous Australians to optimise health outcomes in this disadvantaged population. It further aims to determine whether these markers are relevant in non-Indigenous Australians. BIRCH is a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian adults (≥ 18 years) living in remote, regional and urban locations. Participants will be assessed for CVD risk factors, left ventricular mass and strain via echocardiography, sleep disordered breathing and quality via home-based polysomnography or actigraphy respectively, and plasma lipidomic profiles via mass spectrometry. Outcome data will comprise CVD events and death over a period of five years. Results of BIRCH may increase understanding regarding the factors underlying the increased burden of CVD in Indigenous Australians in this setting. Further, it may identify novel markers of early disease and risk to inform the development of more accurate prediction equations. Better identification of at-risk individuals will promote more effective primary and secondary preventive initiatives to reduce Indigenous Australian health disadvantage.

Predicting the Presence of Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer using Multiparametric MRI and MR-US Fusion Biopsy | Division of Cancer Prevention

Cancer.gov

Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in American men, accounting for 26% of new cancer diagnoses and 9% of cancer deaths in men. Active surveillance, radical prostatectomy and radiotherapy are commonly used treatments for clinically localized prostate cancer. However, current risk stratification methods cannot be used effectively to avoid subjecting

Quantitative description of the effect of stratification on dormancy release of grape seeds in response to various temperatures and water contents

PubMed Central

Wang, W. Q.; Song, S. Q.; Li, S. H.; Gan, Y. Y.; Wu, J. H.; Cheng, H. Y.

2009-01-01

The effect of stratification on dormancy release of grape seeds crossing from the sub- to the supraoptimal range of temperatures and water contents was analysed by modified threshold models. The stratification impacted on dormancy release in three different ways: (i) dormancy was consistently released with prolonged stratification time when stratified at temperatures of <15 °C; (ii) at 15 °C and 20 °C, the stratification effect initially increased, and then decreased with extended time; and (iii) stratification at 25 °C only reduced germinable seeds. These behaviours indicated that stratification could not only release primary dormancy but also induce secondary dormancy in grape seed. The rate of dormancy release changed linearly in two phases, while induction increased exponentially with increasing temperature. The thermal time approaches effectively quantified dormancy release only at suboptimal temperature, but a quantitative method to integrate the occurrence of dormancy release and induction at the same time could describe it well at either sub- or supraoptimal temperatures. The regression with the percentage of germinable seeds versus stratification temperature or water content within both the sub- and supraoptimal range revealed how the optimal temperature (Tso) and water content (Wso) for stratification changed. The Tso moved from 10.6 °C to 5.3 °C with prolonged time, while Wso declined from >0.40 g H2O g DW−1 at 5 °C to ∼0.23 g H2O g DW−1 at 30 °C. Dormancy release in grape seeds can occur across a very wide range of conditions, which has important implications for their ability to adapt to a changeable environment in the wild. PMID:19491305

Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H.

2017-12-01

Water temperatures and stratification are important drivers for ecological and water quality processes within lake systems, and changes in these with increases in air temperature and changes to wind speeds may have significant ecological consequences. To properly manage these systems under changing climate, it is important to understand the effects of increasing air temperatures and wind speed changes in lakes of different depths and surface areas. In this study, we simulate three lakes that vary in depth and surface area to elucidate the effects of the observed increasing air temperatures and decreasing wind speeds on lake thermal variables (water temperature, stratification dates, strength of stratification, and surface heat fluxes) over a century (1911-2014). For all three lakes, simulations showed that epilimnetic temperatures increased, hypolimnetic temperatures decreased, the length of the stratified season increased due to earlier stratification onset and later fall overturn, stability increased, and longwave and sensible heat fluxes at the surface increased. Overall, lake depth influences the presence of stratification, Schmidt stability, and differences in surface heat flux, while lake surface area influences differences in hypolimnion temperature, hypolimnetic heating, variability of Schmidt stability, and stratification onset and fall overturn dates. Larger surface area lakes have greater wind mixing due to increased surface momentum. Climate perturbations indicate that our larger study lakes have more variability in temperature and stratification variables than the smaller lakes, and this variability increases with larger wind speeds. For all study lakes, Pearson correlations and climate perturbation scenarios indicate that wind speed has a large effect on temperature and stratification variables, sometimes greater than changes in air temperature, and wind can act to either amplify or mitigate the effect of warmer air temperatures on lake thermal structure depending on the direction of local wind speed changes.

Which is the optimal risk stratification system for surgically treated localized primary GIST? Comparison of three contemporary prognostic criteria in 171 tumors and a proposal for a modified Armed Forces Institute of Pathology risk criteria.

PubMed

Goh, Brian K P; Chow, Pierce K H; Yap, Wai-Ming; Kesavan, Sittampalam M; Song, In-Chin; Paul, Pradeep G; Ooi, Boon-Swee; Chung, Yaw-Fui A; Wong, Wai-Keong

2008-08-01

This study aims to validate and compare the performance of the National Institute of Health (NIH) criteria, Huang modified NIH criteria, and Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) risk criteria for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) in a large series of localized primary GISTs surgically treated at a single institution to determine the ideal risk stratification system for GIST. The clinicopathological features of 171 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for GISTs were retrospectively reviewed. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the prognostic value of the three risk criteria by analyzing the discriminatory ability linear trend, homogeneity, monotonicity of gradients, and Akaike information criteria. The median actuarial recurrence-free survival (RFS) for all 171 patients was 70%. On multivariate analyses, size >10 cm, mitotic count >5/50 high-power field, tumor necrosis, and serosal involvement were independent prognostic factors of RFS. All three risk criteria demonstrated a statistically significant difference in the recurrence rate, median actuarial RFS, actuarial 5-year RFS, and tumor-specific death across the different stages. Comparison of the various risk-stratification systems demonstrated that our proposed modified AFIP criteria had the best independent predictive value of RFS when compared with the other systems. The NIH, modified NIH, and AFIP criteria are useful in the prognostication of GIST, and the AFIP risk criteria provided the best prognostication among the three systems for primary localized GIST. However, remarkable prognostic heterogeneity exists in the AFIP high-risk category, and with our proposed modification, this system provides the most accurate prognostic information.

Risk stratification personalised model for prediction of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Frolov, Alexander Vladimirovich; Vaikhanskaya, Tatjana Gennadjevna; Melnikova, Olga Petrovna; Vorobiev, Anatoly Pavlovich; Guel, Ludmila Michajlovna

2017-01-01

The development of prognostic factors of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to maintain its priority and relevance in cardiology. The development of a method of personalised prognosis based on multifactorial analysis of the risk factors associated with life-threatening heart rhythm disturbances is considered a key research and clinical task. To design a prognostic and mathematical model to define personalised risk for life-threatening VTA in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The study included 240 patients with CHF (mean-age of 50.5 ± 12.1 years; left ventricular ejection fraction 32.8 ± 10.9%; follow-up period 36.8 ± 5.7 months). The participants received basic therapy for heart failure. The elec-trocardiogram (ECG) markers of myocardial electrical instability were assessed including microvolt T-wave alternans, heart rate turbulence, heart rate deceleration, and QT dispersion. Additionally, echocardiography and Holter monitoring (HM) were performed. The cardiovascular events were considered as primary endpoints, including SCD, paroxysmal ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) based on HM-ECG data, and data obtained from implantable device interrogation (CRT-D, ICD) as well as appropriated shocks. During the follow-up period, 66 (27.5%) subjects with CHF showed adverse arrhythmic events, including nine SCD events and 57 VTAs. Data from a stepwise discriminant analysis of cumulative ECG-markers of myocardial electrical instability were used to make a mathematical model of preliminary VTA risk stratification. Uni- and multivariate Cox logistic regression analysis were performed to define an individualised risk stratification model of SCD/VTA. A binary logistic regression model demonstrated a high prognostic significance of discriminant function with a classification sensitivity of 80.8% and specificity of 99.1% (F = 31.2; c2 = 143.2; p < 0.0001). The method of personalised risk stratification using Cox logistic regression allows correct classification of more than 93.9% of CHF cases. A robust body of evidence concerning logistic regression prognostic significance to define VTA risk allows inclusion of this method into the algorithm of subsequent control and selection of the optimal treatment modality to treat patients with CHF.

Emergence of molecular imaging of aortic aneurysm; implications for risk stratification and management

PubMed Central

Golestani, Reza; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

2014-01-01

Summary Imaging cellular and molecular processes associated with aneurysm expansion, dissection, and rupture can potentially transform the management of patients with thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysm (TAA and AAA). Here, we review recent advances in molecular imaging of aortic aneurysm, focusing on imaging modalities with the greatest potential for clinical translation and application, PET, SPECT and MRI. Inflammation (e.g., with 18F-FDG, nanoparticles) and matrix remodeling (e.g., with matrix metalloproteinase-targeted tracers) are highlighted as promising targets for molecular imaging of aneurysm. Potential alternative or complementary approaches to molecular imaging for aneurysm risk stratification are briefly discussed. PMID:24381115

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

PubMed

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Validation of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines risk prediction model for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Vriesendorp, Pieter A; Schinkel, Arend F L; Liebregts, Max; Theuns, Dominic A M J; van Cleemput, Johan; Ten Cate, Folkert J; Willems, Rik; Michels, Michelle

2015-08-01

The recently released 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) use a new clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (SCD), based on the HCM Risk-SCD study. Our study is the first external and independent validation of this new risk prediction model. The study population consisted of a consecutive cohort of 706 patients with HCM without prior SCD event, from 2 tertiary referral centers. The primary end point was a composite of SCD and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy, identical to the HCM Risk-SCD end point. The 5-year SCD risk was calculated using the HCM Risk-SCD formula. Receiver operating characteristic curves and C-statistics were calculated for the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines, and risk stratification methods of the 2003 American College of Cardiology/European Society of Cardiology guidelines and 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association guidelines. During follow-up of 7.7±5.3 years, SCD occurred in 42 (5.9%) of 706 patients (ages 49±16 years; 34% women). The C-statistic of the new model was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.82; P=0.008), which performed significantly better than the conventional risk factor models based on the 2003 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.55: 95% CI, 0.47-0.63; P=0.3), and 2011 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.60: 95% CI, 0.50-0.70; P=0.07). The HCM Risk-SCD model improves the risk stratification of patients with HCM for primary prevention of SCD, and calculating an individual risk estimate contributes to the clinical decision-making process. Improved risk stratification is important for the decision making before implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation for the primary prevention of SCD. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

From Statistical Significance to Clinical Relevance: A Simple Algorithm to Integrate BNP and the Seattle Heart Failure Model for Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

AbouEzzeddine, Omar F.; French, Benjamin; Mirzoyev, Sultan A.; Jaffe, Allan S; Levy, Wayne C.; Fang, James C.; Sweitzer, Nancy K.; Cappola, Thomas P.; Redfield, Margaret M.

2016-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and multivariable risk-scores such as the Seattle HF Model (SHFM) to predict risk in HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). A practical way to integrate information from these two prognostic tools is lacking. We sought to establish a SHFM+BNP risk-stratification algorithm. Methods The retrospective derivation cohort included consecutive patients with HFrEF at Mayo. One-year outcome (death, transplantation or ventricular assist device) was assessed. The SHFM+BNP algorithm was derived by stratifying patients within SHFM-predicted risk categories (≤2.5%, 2.6–≤10%, >10%) according to BNP above or below 700 pg/mL and comparing SHFM-predicted and observed event rates within each SHFM+BNP category. The algorithm was validated in a prospective, multicenter HFrEF registry (Penn HF Study). Results Derivation (n=441; one-year event rate 17%) and validation (n=1513; one-year event rate 12%) cohorts differed with the former being older and more likely ischemic with worse symptoms, lower EF, worse renal function, higher BNP and SHFM scores. In both cohorts, across the three SHFM-predicted risk strata, a BNP>700 pg/ml consistently identified patients with approximately three-fold the risk that the SHFM would have otherwise estimated regardless stage of HF, intensity and duration of HF-therapy, and comorbidities. Conversely, the SHFM was appropriately calibrated in patients with a BNP<700 pg/ml. Conclusion The simple SHFM+BNP algorithm displays stable performance across diverse HFrEF cohorts and may enhance risk stratification to enable appropriate decisions regarding HF therapeutic or palliative strategies. PMID:27021278

Clinical potentials of methylator phenotype in stage 4 high-risk neuroblastoma: an open challenge.

PubMed

Banelli, Barbara; Merlo, Domenico Franco; Allemanni, Giorgio; Forlani, Alessandra; Romani, Massimo

2013-01-01

Approximately 20% of stage 4 high-risk neuroblastoma patients are alive and disease-free 5 years after disease onset while the remaining experience rapid and fatal progression. Numerous findings underline the prognostic role of methylation of defined target genes in neuroblastoma without taking into account the clinical and biological heterogeneity of this disease. In this report we have investigated the methylation of the PCDHB cluster, the most informative member of the "Methylator Phenotype" in neuroblastoma, hypothesizing that if this epigenetic mark can predict overall and progression free survival in high-risk stage 4 neuroblastoma, it could be utilized to improve the risk stratification of the patients, alone or in conjunction with the previously identified methylation of the SFN gene (14.3.3sigma) that can accurately predict outcome in these patients. We have utilized univariate and multivariate models to compare the prognostic power of PCDHB methylation in terms of overall and progression free survival, quantitatively determined by pyrosequencing, with that of other markers utilized for the patients' stratification utilizing methylation thresholds calculated on neuroblastoma at stage 1-4 and only on stage 4, high-risk patients. Our results indicate that PCDHB accurately distinguishes between high- and intermediate/low risk stage 4 neuroblastoma in agreement with the established risk stratification criteria. However PCDHB cannot predict outcome in the subgroup of stage 4 patients at high-risk whereas methylation levels of SFN are suggestive of a "methylation gradient" associated with tumor aggressiveness as suggested by the finding of a higher threshold that defines a subset of patients with an extremely severe disease (OS <24 months). Because of the heterogeneity of neuroblastoma we believe that clinically relevant methylation markers should be selected and tested on homogeneous groups of patients rather than on patients at all stages.

Direct thrombin and factor Xa inhibition for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Galanis, Taki; Merli, Geno J

2013-02-01

Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common clinically significant cardiac arrhythmia occurring in patients in the United States. The primary clinical consequence of AF is an increase in the risk and severity of strokes. Treatment guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for most patients with AF. One risk-stratification scheme, the CHADS2 index, is simple and widely used to determine the management of patients with AF in regard to stroke prevention. However, new schemes, such as CHA2DS2-VASc, further refine risk stratification to identify patients who would obtain a net clinical benefit from a particular management strategy, thus improving the quality of management. For patients with AF for whom oral anticoagulation (OAC) is advisable, vitamin K antagonist (VKA) therapy is well established and effective. However, OAC with VKAs presents challenges to prescribers and patients in maintaining therapeutic efficacy. Novel OACs may offer alternatives to VKAs. Dabigatran etexilate, a direct thrombin inhibitor, was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2010 for reducing the risk of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with nonvalvular AF. The activated factor X (factor Xa) inhibitor rivaroxaban was recently approved by the FDA both for prophylaxis of deep vein thrombosis, which may lead to pulmonary embolism in patients undergoing knee or hip arthroplasty, and for reducing the risk of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with nonvalvular AF. Apixaban, another factor Xa inhibitor, was recently shown to be effective for stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular AF. This article reviews clinical considerations regarding new agents that may offer alternatives to VKA therapy for the prevention of stroke in patients with AF.

Combining risk markers improves cardiovascular risk prediction in women.

PubMed

Holewijn, Suzanne; den Heijer, Martin; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Stalenhoef, Anton F H; de Graaf, Jacqueline

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular risk stratification could be improved by adding measures of atherosclerosis to current risk scores, especially in intermediate-risk individuals. We prospectively evaluated the additive value of different non-invasive risk markers (both individual and combined) for gender-specific cardiovascular risk stratification on top of traditional risk factors in a middle-aged population-based cohort. Carotid-plaques, IMT (intima-media thickness), ABI (ankle-brachial index), PWV (pulse-wave velocity), AIx (augmentation index), CAP (central augmented pressure) and CSP (central-systolic pressure) were measured in 1367 CVD (cardiovascular disease)-free participants aged 50-70 years old. Cardiovascular events were validated after a mean follow-up of 3.8 years. AUC (area-under-the-curve) and NRI (net reclassification improvement) analyses (total-NRI for all and clinical-NRI for intermediate-risk groups) were used to determine the additive value of individual and combined risk markers. Cardiovascular events occurred in 32 women and 39 men. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors explained 6.2% and 12.5% of the variance in CVD in women and men respectively. AUCs did not substantially increase by adding individual or combined non-invasive risk markers. Individual risk markers only improved reclassification in intermediate-risk women and more than in men; clinical-NRIs ranged between 48.0 and 173.1% in women and 8.9 and 20% in men. Combined non-invasive-risk markers improved reclassification in all women and even more in those at intermediate risk; 'IMT-presence-thickness-of-plaques' showed largest reclassification [total-NRI=33.8%, P=0.012; IDI (integrated-discrimination-improvement)=0.048, P=0.066; clinical-NRI=168.0%]. In men, combined non-invasive risk markers improved reclassification only in those at intermediate risk; 'PWV-AIx-CSP-CAP-IMT' showed the largest reclassification (total-NRI=14.5%, P=0.087; IDI=0.016, P=0.148; clinical-NRI=46.0%). In all women, cardiovascular risk stratification improved by adding combinations and in women at intermediate risk also by adding individual non-invasive risk markers. The additive value of individual and combined non-invasive risk markers in men is limited to men at intermediate risk only, and to a lesser extent than in women.

Overcoming intratumoural heterogeneity for reproducible molecular risk stratification: a case study in advanced kidney cancer.

PubMed

Lubbock, Alexander L R; Stewart, Grant D; O'Mahony, Fiach C; Laird, Alexander; Mullen, Peter; O'Donnell, Marie; Powles, Thomas; Harrison, David J; Overton, Ian M

2017-06-26

Metastatic clear cell renal cell cancer (mccRCC) portends a poor prognosis and urgently requires better clinical tools for prognostication as well as for prediction of response to treatment. Considerable investment in molecular risk stratification has sought to overcome the performance ceiling encountered by methods restricted to traditional clinical parameters. However, replication of results has proven challenging, and intratumoural heterogeneity (ITH) may confound attempts at tissue-based stratification. We investigated the influence of confounding ITH on the performance of a novel molecular prognostic model, enabled by pathologist-guided multiregion sampling (n = 183) of geographically separated mccRCC cohorts from the SuMR trial (development, n = 22) and the SCOTRRCC study (validation, n = 22). Tumour protein levels quantified by reverse phase protein array (RPPA) were investigated alongside clinical variables. Regularised wrapper selection identified features for Cox multivariate analysis with overall survival as the primary endpoint. The optimal subset of variables in the final stratification model consisted of N-cadherin, EPCAM, Age, mTOR (NEAT). Risk groups from NEAT had a markedly different prognosis in the validation cohort (log-rank p = 7.62 × 10 -7 ; hazard ratio (HR) 37.9, 95% confidence interval 4.1-353.8) and 2-year survival rates (accuracy = 82%, Matthews correlation coefficient = 0.62). Comparisons with established clinico-pathological scores suggest favourable performance for NEAT (Net reclassification improvement 7.1% vs International Metastatic Database Consortium score, 25.4% vs Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center score). Limitations include the relatively small cohorts and associated wide confidence intervals on predictive performance. Our multiregion sampling approach enabled investigation of NEAT validation when limiting the number of samples analysed per tumour, which significantly degraded performance. Indeed, sample selection could change risk group assignment for 64% of patients, and prognostication with one sample per patient performed only slightly better than random expectation (median logHR = 0.109). Low grade tissue was associated with 3.5-fold greater variation in predicted risk than high grade (p = 0.044). This case study in mccRCC quantitatively demonstrates the critical importance of tumour sampling for the success of molecular biomarker studies research where ITH is a factor. The NEAT model shows promise for mccRCC prognostication and warrants follow-up in larger cohorts. Our work evidences actionable parameters to guide sample collection (tumour coverage, size, grade) to inform the development of reproducible molecular risk stratification methods.

Investigation of Stable Atmospheric Stratification Effect on the Dynamics of Descending Vortex Pairs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-02-01

The physics of vortex flows in stratified fluids is studied with the objective of determining the influence of stable stratification on the descent of aircraft vortex pairs. Vortex rings descending into linear and discontinuous density stratification...

Risk Stratification of Acute Kidney Injury Using the Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Takaya, Yoichi; Yoshihara, Fumiki; Yokoyama, Hiroyuki; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Kitakaze, Masafumi; Goto, Yoichi; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Kawano, Yuhei

2015-01-01

Risk stratification of acute kidney injury (AKI) is important for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical markers, such as the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) or BUN or creatinine values alone, stratify the risk of AKI for mortality. In all, 371 consecutive ADHF patients were enrolled in the study. AKI was defined as serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dl or a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels within 48 h. During ADHF therapy, AKI occurred in 99 patients; 55 patients died during the 12-month follow-up period. Grouping patients according to AKI and a median BUN/Cr at admission of 22.1 (non-AKI+low BUN/Cr, non-AKI+high BUN/Cr, AKI+low BUN/Cr, and AKI+high BUN/Cr groups) revealed higher mortality in the AKI+high BUN/Cr group (log-rank test, P<0.001). Cox's proportional hazard analysis revealed an association between AKI+high BUN/Cr and mortality, whereas the association with AKI+low BUN/Cr did not reach statistical significance. When patients were grouped according to AKI and median BUN or creatinine values at admission, AKI was associated with mortality, regardless of BUN or creatinine. The combination of AKI and elevated BUN/Cr, but not BUN or creatinine individually, is linked with an increased risk of mortality in ADHF patients, suggesting that the BUN/Cr is useful for risk stratification of AKI.

Risk stratification and management of acute pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Becattini, Cecilia; Agnelli, Giancarlo

2016-12-02

The clinical management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism is rapidly changing over the years. The widening spectrum of clinical management strategies for these patients requires effective tools for risk stratification. Patients at low risk for death could be candidates for home treatment or early discharge. Clinical models with high negative predictive value have been validated that could be used to select patients at low risk for death. In a major study and in several meta-analyses, thrombolysis in hemodynamically stable patients was associated with unacceptably high risk for major bleeding complications or intracranial hemorrhage. Thus, the presence of shock or sustained hypotension continues to be the criterion for the selection of candidates for thrombolytic treatment. Interventional procedures for early revascularization should be reserved to selected patients until further evidence is available. No clinical advantage is expected with the insertion of a vena cava filter in the acute-phase management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Direct oral anticoagulants used in fixed doses without laboratory monitoring showed similar efficacy (odds ratio [OR], 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.12) and safety (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.77-1.03) in comparison with conventional anticoagulation in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Based on these results and on their practicality, direct oral anticoagulants are the agents of choice for the treatment of the majority of patients with acute pulmonary embolism. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology. All rights reserved.

Best practice in the use of natalizumab in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Fernández, Oscar

2013-03-01

Natalizumab is approved for the treatment of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis who have failed first-line treatment with traditional disease-modifying therapies or who have highly active disease. The drug has proved highly effective, both in a clinical trial setting and in clinical practice, with marked reductions in the rate of clinical relapses and slowed disease progression. These clinical outcomes are mirrored by a marked reduction in disease activity as evidenced by magnetic resonance imaging of the brain. However, natalizumab treatment has been associated with a risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a potentially fatal condition caused by JC virus (JCV) activation. When this condition was detected in a clinical trial shortly after approval, the drug was immediately and voluntarily withdrawn from the market. As a condition of its reinstatement, stringent pharmacovigilance measures and a risk management plan were enforced. The recent availability of a two-step enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for the presence of anti-JCV antibodies (free testing is available in a central laboratory for registered centers), along with an ever-improving understanding of other risk factors such as prior immunosuppressant use and duration of treatment, allow an increasingly refined stratification of the risk of PML. This improved stratification of risk can help guide decisions about treatment. This review will also deal with other topics of relevance to clinical practice such as the development of antinatalizumab antibodies and their negative implications in terms of hypersensitivity reactions and loss of efficacy, withdrawal of treatment, and compassionate pediatric use.

All men with vasculogenic erectile dysfunction require a cardiovascular workup.

PubMed

Miner, Martin; Nehra, Ajay; Jackson, Graham; Bhasin, Shalender; Billups, Kevin; Burnett, Arthur L; Buvat, Jacques; Carson, Culley; Cunningham, Glenn; Ganz, Peter; Goldstein, Irwin; Guay, Andre; Hackett, Geoff; Kloner, Robert A; Kostis, John B; LaFlamme, K Elizabeth; Montorsi, Piero; Ramsey, Melinda; Rosen, Raymond; Sadovsky, Richard; Seftel, Allen; Shabsigh, Ridwan; Vlachopoulos, Charalambos; Wu, Frederick

2014-03-01

An association between erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular disease has long been recognized, and studies suggest that erectile dysfunction is an independent marker of cardiovascular disease risk. Therefore, assessment and management of erectile dysfunction may help identify and reduce the risk of future cardiovascular events, particularly in younger men. The initial erectile dysfunction evaluation should distinguish between predominantly vasculogenic erectile dysfunction and erectile dysfunction of other etiologies. For men believed to have predominantly vasculogenic erectile dysfunction, we recommend that initial cardiovascular risk stratification be based on the Framingham Risk Score. Management of men with erectile dysfunction who are at low risk for cardiovascular disease should focus on risk-factor control; men at high risk, including those with cardiovascular symptoms, should be referred to a cardiologist. Intermediate-risk men should undergo noninvasive evaluation for subclinical atherosclerosis. A growing body of evidence supports the use of emerging prognostic markers to further understand cardiovascular risk in men with erectile dysfunction, but few markers have been prospectively evaluated in this population. In conclusion, we support cardiovascular risk stratification and risk-factor management in all men with vasculogenic erectile dysfunction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between NINJ2 gene polymorphisms and ischemic stroke: a family-based case-control study.

PubMed

Zhu, Yanping; Liu, Kuo; Tang, Xun; Wang, Jinwei; Yu, Zhiping; Wu, Yiqun; Chen, Dafang; Wang, Xueyin; Fang, Kai; Li, Na; Huang, Shaoping; Hu, Yonghua

2014-11-01

Novel susceptibility genes related to ischemic stroke (IS) are proposed in recent literatures. Population-based replicate studies would cause false positive results due to population stratification. 229 recruit IS patients and their 229 non-IS siblings were used in this study to avoid population stratification. The family-based study was conducted in Beijing from June 2005 to June 2012. Association between SNPs and IS was found in the sibship discordant tests, and the conditional logistic regression was performed to identify effect size and explore gene-environment interactions. Significant allelic association was identified between NINJ2 gene rs11833579 (P = 0.008), protein kinase C η gene rs2230501 (P = 0.039) and IS. The AA genotype of rs11833579 increased 1.51-fold risk (95% CI 1.04-3.46; P = 0.043) of IS, and it conferred susceptibility to IS only in a dominant model (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.06-6.78; P = 0.036]. Risk of IS was higher (HR 3.58; 95% CI 1.54-8.31; P = 0.003) especially when the carriers of rs11833579 AA genotype were smokers. The present study suggests A allele of rs11833579 may play a role in mediating susceptibility to IS and it may increase the risk of IS together with smoking.

The Effect of Barotropic and Baroclinic Tides on Coastal Stratification and Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suanda, S. H.; Feddersen, F.; Kumar, N.

2017-12-01

The effects of barotropic and baroclinic tides on subtidal stratification and vertical mixing are examined with high-resolution, three-dimensional numerical simulations of the Central Californian coastal upwelling region. A base simulation with realistic atmospheric and regional-scale boundary forcing but no tides (NT) is compared to two simulations with the addition of predominantly barotropic local tides (LT) and with combined barotropic and remotely generated, baroclinic tides (WT) with ≈ 100 W m-1 onshore baroclinic energy flux. During a 10 day period of coastal upwelling when the domain volume-averaged temperature is similar in all three simulations, LT has little difference in subtidal temperature and stratification compared to NT. In contrast, the addition of remote baroclinic tides (WT) reduces the subtidal continental shelf stratification up to 50% relative to NT. Idealized simulations to isolate barotropic and baroclinic effects demonstrate that within a parameter space of typical U.S. West Coast continental shelf slopes, barotropic tidal currents, incident energy flux, and subtidal stratification, the dissipating baroclinic tide destroys stratification an order of magnitude faster than barotropic tides. In WT, the modeled vertical temperature diffusivity at the top (base) of the bottom (surface) boundary layer is increased up to 20 times relative to NT. Therefore, the width of the inner-shelf (region of surface and bottom boundary layer overlap) is increased approximately 4 times relative to NT. The change in stratification due to dissipating baroclinic tides is comparable to the magnitude of the observed seasonal cycle of stratification.

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients

PubMed Central

Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H.; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm3/month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients. PMID:29861868

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

PubMed

Wennmann, Markus; Kintzelé, Laurent; Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-05-18

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm 3 /month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

Prognostic and Added Value of Two-Dimensional Global Longitudinal Strain for Prediction of Survival in Patients with Light Chain Amyloidosis Undergoing Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Pun, Shawn C; Landau, Heather J; Riedel, Elyn R; Jordan, Jonathan; Yu, Anthony F; Hassoun, Hani; Chen, Carol L; Steingart, Richard M; Liu, Jennifer E

2018-01-01

Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a first-line therapy for prolonging survival in patients with light-chain (AL) amyloidosis. Cardiac involvement is the most important determinant of survival. However, patients with advanced cardiac involvement have often been excluded from HCT because of high risk for transplantation-related mortality and poor overall survival. Whether baseline left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS) can provide additional risk stratification and predict survival after HCT in this high-risk population remains unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic implication of baseline GLS and the added value of GLS beyond circulating cardiac biomarkers for risk stratification in patients with AL amyloidosis undergoing HCT. Eighty-two patients with newly diagnosed AL amyloidosis who underwent upfront HCT between January 2007 and April 2014 were included in the study. Clinical, echocardiographic, and serum cardiac biomarker data were collected at baseline and 12 months following HCT. GLS measurements were performed using a vendor-independent offline system. The median follow-up time for survivors was 58 months. Sixty-four percent of patients were in biomarker-based Mayo stage II or III. GLS, brain natriuretic peptide, troponin, and mitral E/A ratio were identified as the strongest predictors of survival (P < .0001). Other predictors included sex, creatinine, free AL, wall thickness, and ejection fraction. Mayo stage was significantly associated with outcome, with 5-year survival of 93%, 72% and 31% in stage I, II, and III patients, respectively. GLS of 17% was identified as the value that best discriminated survivors from nonsurvivors, and the application of this cutoff value provided further mortality risk stratification within each Mayo stage. GLS is a strong predictor of survival in patients with AL amyloidosis undergoing HCT, potentially providing incremental value over serum cardiac biomarkers for risk stratification. GLS should be considered as a standard parameter along with serum cardiac biomarkers when evaluating eligibility for HCT or other investigational therapies. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Syncope and work: role of the occupational physician and global risk stratification].

PubMed

Barbic, F; Angaroni, L; Orlandi, M; Costantino, G; Dipaola, E; Borleri, D; Borchini, R; D'Adda, F; Perego, F; Borella, M; Galli, A; Solbiati, M; Scanella, E; Casazza, G; Seghizzi, P; Furlan, R

2011-01-01

Safety risk for subjects suffering from syncope while working has not been as yet addressed by occupational medicine. The present study was aimed at evaluating a new developed methodology for job tasks risk stratification in patients with syncope. During a work-shop on syncope and occupational risk, 149 occupational physicians (OP) with about 10 years of clinical experience were asked to fulfil a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) concerning the doctor's estimated potential damage (D) to the worker and the probability of a damage to occur (P) should syncope take place during the job task. Five job tasks characterized by different risk for safety (1, driving; 2, toxic products handling; 3, job performed closed to hot surfaces o free flames; 4, surgical activity; 5, office job) were identified. OP correctly stratified the risk associated to the different job tasks in patients with syncope. Unexpectedly, task #3 was given a risk similar to that obtained in drivers. This might be of paramount clinical and social importance when patients with syncope have to return to their job tasks.

Risk stratification in secondary cardiovascular prevention.

PubMed

Lazzeroni, Davide; Coruzzi, Paolo

2018-02-19

Worldwide, more than 7 million people experience acute myocardial infarction (AMI) every year (1), and although substantial reduction in mortality has been obtained in recent decades, one-year mortality rates are still in the range of 10%. Among patients who survive AMI, 20% suffer a second cardiovascular event in the first year and approximately 50% of major coronary events occur in those with a previous hospital discharge diagnosis of AMI (2). Despite the evidence that lifestyle changes and risk factors management strongly improve long-term prognosis, preventive care post-AMI remains sub-optimal. Cross-sectional data from the serially conducted EUROASPIRE surveys in patients with established ischemic heart disease (IHD) and people at high cardiovascular risk have demonstrated a high prevalence of unhealthy lifestyle, modifiable risk factors and inadequate use of drug therapies to achieve blood pressure and lipid goals (3). Secondary prevention programmes, defined as the level of preventive care focusing on early risk stratification, are highly recommended in all IHD patients, to restore quality of life, maintain or improve functional capacity and prevent recurrence.

Prediction of breast cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants.

PubMed

Mavaddat, Nasim; Pharoah, Paul D P; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan; Brook, Mark N; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Peto, Julian; Dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dudbridge, Frank; Johnson, Nichola; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Verhoef, Senno; Rutgers, Emiel J; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Figueroa, Jonine; Chanock, Stephen J; Brinton, Louise; Lissowska, Jolanta; Couch, Fergus J; Olson, Janet E; Vachon, Celine; Pankratz, Vernon S; Lambrechts, Diether; Wildiers, Hans; Van Ongeval, Chantal; van Limbergen, Erik; Kristensen, Vessela; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe; Nord, Silje; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fasching, Peter A; Haeberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Newcomb, Polly; Titus, Linda; Egan, Kathleen M; Hunter, David J; Lindstrom, Sara; Tamimi, Rulla M; Kraft, Peter; Rahman, Nazneen; Turnbull, Clare; Renwick, Anthony; Seal, Sheila; Li, Jingmei; Liu, Jianjun; Humphreys, Keith; Benitez, Javier; Pilar Zamora, M; Arias Perez, Jose Ignacio; Menéndez, Primitiva; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Dörk, Thilo; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Neuhausen, Susan L; Ziogas, Argyrios; Bernstein, Leslie; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Bermisheva, Marina; Prokofyeva, Darya; Takhirova, Zalina; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Sutter, Christian; Yang, Rongxi; Schürmann, Peter; Bremer, Michael; Christiansen, Hans; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Hillemanns, Peter; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Menegaux, Florence; Sanchez, Marie; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Pensotti, Valeria; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Sigurdson, Alice J; Doody, Michele M; Hamann, Ute; Torres, Diana; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Försti, Asta; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Glendon, Gord; Marie Mulligan, Anna; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Balleine, Rosemary; Giles, Graham G; Milne, Roger L; McLean, Catriona; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Eilber, Ursula; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Hooning, Maartje J; Hollestelle, Antoinette; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; Koppert, Linetta B; Carpenter, Jane; Clarke, Christine; Scott, Rodney; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Brenner, Hermann; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Karina Dieffenbach, Aida; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Offit, Kenneth; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Rau-Murthy, Rohini; Dwek, Miriam; Swann, Ruth; Annie Perkins, Katherine; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Eccles, Diana M; Tapper, William J; Rafiq, Sajjad; John, Esther M; Whittemore, Alice S; Slager, Susan; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Toland, Amanda E; Yao, Song; Zheng, Wei; Halverson, Sandra L; González-Neira, Anna; Pita, Guillermo; Rosario Alonso, M; Álvarez, Nuria; Herrero, Daniel; Tessier, Daniel C; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, Francois; Luccarini, Craig; Baynes, Caroline; Ahmed, Shahana; Maranian, Mel; Healey, Catherine S; Simard, Jacques; Hall, Per; Easton, Douglas F; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat

2015-05-01

Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk Based on Profiling With Common Genetic Variants

PubMed Central

Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan; Brook, Mark N.; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Peto, Julian; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dudbridge, Frank; Johnson, Nichola; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Verhoef, Senno; Rutgers, Emiel J.; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk J.; Figueroa, Jonine; Chanock, Stephen J.; Brinton, Louise; Lissowska, Jolanta; Couch, Fergus J.; Olson, Janet E.; Vachon, Celine; Pankratz, Vernon S.; Lambrechts, Diether; Wildiers, Hans; Van Ongeval, Chantal; van Limbergen, Erik; Kristensen, Vessela; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe; Nord, Silje; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fasching, Peter A.; Haeberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Newcomb, Polly; Titus, Linda; Egan, Kathleen M.; Hunter, David J.; Lindstrom, Sara; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Kraft, Peter; Rahman, Nazneen; Turnbull, Clare; Renwick, Anthony; Seal, Sheila; Li, Jingmei; Liu, Jianjun; Humphreys, Keith; Benitez, Javier; Pilar Zamora, M.; Arias Perez, Jose Ignacio; Menéndez, Primitiva; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Dörk, Thilo; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Bernstein, Leslie; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Bermisheva, Marina; Prokofyeva, Darya; Takhirova, Zalina; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Sutter, Christian; Yang, Rongxi; Schürmann, Peter; Bremer, Michael; Christiansen, Hans; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Hillemanns, Peter; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Menegaux, Florence; Sanchez, Marie; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Pensotti, Valeria; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Sigurdson, Alice J.; Doody, Michele M.; Hamann, Ute; Torres, Diana; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Försti, Asta; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Glendon, Gord; Marie Mulligan, Anna; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Balleine, Rosemary; Giles, Graham G.; Milne, Roger L.; McLean, Catriona; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Eilber, Ursula; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Hooning, Maartje J.; Hollestelle, Antoinette; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; Koppert, Linetta B.; Carpenter, Jane; Clarke, Christine; Scott, Rodney; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Brenner, Hermann; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Karina Dieffenbach, Aida; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Offit, Kenneth; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Rau-Murthy, Rohini; Dwek, Miriam; Swann, Ruth; Annie Perkins, Katherine; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Eccles, Diana M.; Tapper, William J.; Rafiq, Sajjad; John, Esther M.; Whittemore, Alice S.; Slager, Susan; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Toland, Amanda E.; Yao, Song; Zheng, Wei; Halverson, Sandra L.; González-Neira, Anna; Pita, Guillermo; Rosario Alonso, M.; Álvarez, Nuria; Herrero, Daniel; Tessier, Daniel C.; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, Francois; Luccarini, Craig; Baynes, Caroline; Ahmed, Shahana; Maranian, Mel; Healey, Catherine S.; Simard, Jacques; Hall, Per; Easton, Douglas F.; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat

2015-01-01

Background: Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. Methods: We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. Results: There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. Conclusions: The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report. PMID:25855707

A Model-Free Machine Learning Method for Risk Classification and Survival Probability Prediction.

PubMed

Geng, Yuan; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Hao Helen

2014-01-01

Risk classification and survival probability prediction are two major goals in survival data analysis since they play an important role in patients' risk stratification, long-term diagnosis, and treatment selection. In this article, we propose a new model-free machine learning framework for risk classification and survival probability prediction based on weighted support vector machines. The new procedure does not require any specific parametric or semiparametric model assumption on data, and is therefore capable of capturing nonlinear covariate effects. We use numerous simulation examples to demonstrate finite sample performance of the proposed method under various settings. Applications to a glioma tumor data and a breast cancer gene expression survival data are shown to illustrate the new methodology in real data analysis.

CMV-Specific T Cell Monitoring Offers Superior Risk Stratification of CMV-Seronegative Kidney Transplant Recipients of a CMV-Seropositive Donor.

PubMed

Schachtner, Thomas; Stein, Maik; Reinke, Petra

2017-10-01

Detectable cytomegalovirus (CMV)-specific T cells in CMV-seronegative kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) have been attributed to an absence of circulating antibodies despite CMV sensitization. The diagnostic value of CMV-specific T cells, however, needs to be implemented in risk stratification for CMV replication. Three hundred twenty-six KTRs were studied and classified with respect to CMV serostatus and presence of CMV-specific T cells. Samples were collected pretransplantation, at +1, +2, and +3 months posttransplantation. CMV-specific T cells directed to CMV-IE1 and CMV-pp65 were measured by interferon-γ Elispot assay. Nineteen (28%) of 67 D+R- KTRs showed pretransplant CMV-specific T cells. Although no differences were observed for CMV replication, KTRs with CMV-specific T cells presented with lower initial and peak CMV loads (P < 0.05). KTRs with decreasing/undetectable CMV-IE1-specific T cells pretransplantation and posttransplantation were at greatest risk of CMV replication. KTRs with stable/increasing CMV-IE1-specific T cells from pretransplantation to posttransplantation, however, showed low risk of CMV replication (P < 0.001). One hundred sixty-two (80%) of 203 R+ KTRs showed pretransplant CMV-specific T cells. Decreasing/undetectable CMV-IE1-specific T cells from pretransplantation and posttransplantation identified those R+ KTRs at increased risk of CMV replication (65/80 KTRs; 81%; P < 0.001). Despite CMV prophylaxis, D+R- KTRs are at greatest risk of CMV disease. Our data suggest that monitoring CMV-specific T cell kinetics from pretransplantation to posttransplantation, particularly directed to CMV-IE1, offers superior risk stratification compared with CMV serostatus alone.

Gene expression profiling in multiple myeloma--reporting of entities, risk, and targets in clinical routine.

PubMed

Meissner, Tobias; Seckinger, Anja; Rème, Thierry; Hielscher, Thomas; Möhler, Thomas; Neben, Kai; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Klein, Bernard; Hose, Dirk

2011-12-01

Multiple myeloma is an incurable malignant plasma cell disease characterized by survival ranging from several months to more than 15 years. Assessment of risk and underlying molecular heterogeneity can be excellently done by gene expression profiling (GEP), but its way into clinical routine is hampered by the lack of an appropriate reporting tool and the integration with other prognostic factors into a single "meta" risk stratification. The GEP-report (GEP-R) was built as an open-source software developed in R for gene expression reporting in clinical practice using Affymetrix microarrays. GEP-R processes new samples by applying a documentation-by-value strategy to the raw data to be able to assign thresholds and grouping algorithms defined on a reference cohort of 262 patients with multiple myeloma. Furthermore, we integrated expression-based and conventional prognostic factors within one risk stratification (HM-metascore). The GEP-R comprises (i) quality control, (ii) sample identity control, (iii) biologic classification, (iv) risk stratification, and (v) assessment of target genes. The resulting HM-metascore is defined as the sum over the weighted factors gene expression-based risk-assessment (UAMS-, IFM-score), proliferation, International Staging System (ISS) stage, t(4;14), and expression of prognostic target genes (AURKA, IGF1R) for which clinical grade inhibitors exist. The HM-score delineates three significantly different groups of 13.1%, 72.1%, and 14.7% of patients with a 6-year survival rate of 89.3%, 60.6%, and 18.6%, respectively. GEP reporting allows prospective assessment of risk and target gene expression and integration of current prognostic factors in clinical routine, being customizable about novel parameters or other cancer entities. ©2011 AACR.

Risk stratification for death and all-cause hospitalization in heart failure clinic outpatients.

PubMed

Hummel, Scott L; Ghalib, Hussam H; Ratz, David; Koelling, Todd M

2013-11-01

Most heart failure (HF) risk stratification models were developed for inpatient use, and available outpatient models use a complex set of variables. We hypothesized that routinely collected clinical data could predict the 6-month risk of death and all-cause medical hospitalization in HF clinic outpatients. Using a quality improvement database and multivariable Cox modeling, we derived the Heart Failure Patient Severity Index (HFPSI) in the University of Michigan HF clinic (UM cohort, n = 1,536; 314 reached primary outcome). We externally validated the HFPSI in the Ann Arbor Veterans' Affairs HF clinic (VA cohort, n = 445; 106 outcomes) and explored "real-time" HFPSI use (VA-RT cohort, n = 486; 141 outcomes) by tracking VA patients for 6 months from their most recently calculated HFPSI, rather than using an arbitrary start date for the cohort. The HFPSI model included blood urea nitrogen, B-type natriuretic peptide, New York Heart Association class, diabetes status, history of atrial fibrillation/flutter, and all-cause hospitalization within the prior 1 and 2 to 6 months. The concordance c statistics in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts were 0.71/0.68/0.74. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank testing demonstrated excellent risk stratification, particularly between a large, low-risk group (40% of patients, 6-month event rates in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts 8%/12%/12%) and a small, high-risk group (10% of patients, 6-month event rates in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts 57%/58%/79%). The HFPSI uses readily available data to predict the 6-month risk of death and/or all-cause medical hospitalization in HF clinic outpatients and could potentially help allocate specialized HF resources within health systems. © 2013.

Evaluation of screening methods for identification of patients with chronic rheumatological disease requiring tuberculosis chemoprophylaxis prior to commencement of TNF-α antagonist therapy.

PubMed

Singanayagam, Aran; Manalan, Kavina; Sridhar, Saranya; Molyneaux, Philip L; Connell, David W; George, Peter M; Kindelerer, Anne; Seneviratne, Suranjith; Lalvani, Ajit; Wickremasinghe, Melissa; Kon, Onn Min

2013-10-01

Patients undergoing tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α antagonist therapy are at increased risk of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) reactivation. The aim of this study was to determine the optimum available screening strategy for identifying patients for tuberculosis (TB) chemoprophylaxis. We conducted a prospective observational study of consecutive adults with chronic rheumatological disease referred for LTBI screening prior to commencement of TNF-α antagonist therapy. All patients included had calculation of TB risk according to age, ethnicity and year of UK entry, as described in the 2005 British Thoracic Society (BTS) guidelines and measurement of tuberculin skin test (TST) and T.Spot.TB. There were 187 patients included in the study, with 157 patients (84%) taking immunosuppressants. 137 patients would require further risk stratification according to the BTS algorithm, with 110 (80.3%) classified as being at low risk of having LTBI. There were 39 patients (35.5%) who were categorised as low risk but were either TST and/or T.Spot positive and would not have received chemoprophylaxis according to the BTS algorithm. Combination of all three methods (risk stratification and/or positive T.Spot and/or positive TST) identified 66 patients out of 137 who would potentially be offered chemoprophylaxis, which was greater than any single test or two-test combination. Performing both a TST and T.Spot in patients on immunosuppressants prior to commencement of TNF-α antagonist therapy gives an additional yield of potential LTBI compared with use of risk stratification tables alone. Our results suggest that use of all three screening modalities gives the highest yield of patients potentially requiring chemoprophylaxis.

Serum protein profiling using an aptamer array predicts clinical outcomes of stage IIA colon cancer: A leave-one-out crossvalidation

PubMed Central

Huh, Jung Wook; Kim, Sung Chun; Sohn, Insuk; Jung, Sin-Ho; Kim, Hee Cheol

2016-01-01

Background In this study, we established and validated a model for predicting prognosis of stage IIA colon cancer patients based on expression profiles of aptamers in serum. Methods Bloods samples were collected from 227 consecutive patients with pathologic T3N0M0 (stage IIA) colon cancer. We incubated 1,149 serum molecule-binding aptamer pools of clinical significance with serum from patients to obtain aptamers bound to serum molecules, which were then amplified and marked. Oligonucleotide arrays were constructed with the base sequences of the 1,149 aptamers, and the marked products identified above were reacted with one another to produce profiles of the aptamers bound to serum molecules. These profiles were organized into low- and high-risk groups of colon cancer patients based on clinical information for the serum samples. Cox proportional hazards model and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to evaluate predictive performance. Results During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 29 of the 227 patients (11.9%) experienced recurrence. There were 212 patients (93.4%) in the low-risk group and 15 patients (6.6%) in the high-risk group in our aptamer prognosis model. Postoperative recurrence significantly correlated with age and aptamer risk stratification (p = 0.046 and p = 0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, aptamer risk stratification (p < 0.001) was an independent predictor of recurrence. Disease-free survival curves calculated according to aptamer risk level predicted through a LOOCV procedure and age showed significant differences (p < 0.001 from permutations). Conclusion Aptamer risk stratification can be a valuable prognostic factor in stage II colon cancer patients. PMID:26908450

Blood pressure load does not add to ambulatory blood pressure level for cardiovascular risk stratification.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Filipovsky, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; Ibsen, Hans; O'Brien, Eoin; Wang, Jiguang; Staessen, Jan A

2014-05-01

Experts proposed blood pressure (BP) load derived from 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings as a more accurate predictor of outcome than level, in particular in normotensive people. We analyzed 8711 subjects (mean age, 54.8 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations. We expressed BP load as percentage (%) of systolic/diastolic readings ≥135/≥85 mm Hg and ≥120/≥70 mm Hg during day and night, respectively, or as the area under the BP curve (mm Hg×h) using the same ceiling values. During a period of 10.7 years (median), 1284 participants died and 1109 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular end point. In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of cardiovascular complications gradually increased across deciles of BP level and load (P<0.001), but BP load did not substantially refine risk prediction based on 24-hour systolic or diastolic BP level (generalized R(2) statistic ≤0.294%; net reclassification improvement ≤0.28%; integrated discrimination improvement ≤0.001%). Systolic/diastolic BP load of 40.0/42.3% or 91.8/73.6 mm Hg×h conferred a 10-year risk of a composite cardiovascular end point similar to a 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP of 130/80 mm Hg. In analyses dichotomized according to these thresholds, increased BP load did not refine risk prediction in the whole study population (R(2)≤0.051) or in untreated participants with 24-hour ambulatory normotension (R(2)≤0.034). In conclusion, BP load does not improve risk stratification based on 24-hour BP level. This also applies to subjects with normal 24-hour BP for whom BP load was proposed to be particularly useful in risk stratification.

Deep Vein Thrombosis Prophylaxis: State of the Art.

PubMed

Lieberman, Jay R

2018-03-21

The selection of a prophylaxis regimen to prevent symptomatic pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis is a balance between efficacy and safety. The latest American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons guideline recommended that either chemoprophylaxis or mechanical prophylaxis be used after total joint arthroplasty but did not recommend specific agents. However, the latest evidence-based American College of Chest Physicians guideline recommended a variety of chemoprophylaxis and mechanical agents for a minimum of 10 to 14 days after total joint arthroplasty. Risk stratification is the key to the selection of the appropriate prophylaxis regimen for the individual patient, but the optimal risk stratification protocol still needs to be developed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Adaptation of a Biomarker-Based Sepsis Mortality Risk Stratification Tool for Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

PubMed

Yehya, Nadir; Wong, Hector R

2018-01-01

The original Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and revised (Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II) biomarker-based risk prediction models have demonstrated utility for estimating baseline 28-day mortality risk in pediatric sepsis. Given the paucity of prediction tools in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, and given the overlapping pathophysiology between sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome, we tested the utility of Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II for mortality prediction in a cohort of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, with an a priori plan to revise the model if these existing models performed poorly. Prospective observational cohort study. University affiliated PICU. Mechanically ventilated children with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Blood collection within 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome onset and biomarker measurements. In 152 children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model performed poorly and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II performed modestly (areas under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.61 and 0.76, respectively). Therefore, we randomly selected 80% of the cohort (n = 122) to rederive a risk prediction model for pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. We used classification and regression tree methodology, considering the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model biomarkers in addition to variables relevant to acute respiratory distress syndrome. The final model was comprised of three biomarkers and age, and more accurately estimated baseline mortality risk (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.85, p < 0.001 and p = 0.053 compared with Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II, respectively). The model was tested in the remaining 20% of subjects (n = 30) and demonstrated similar test characteristics. A validated, biomarker-based risk stratification tool designed for pediatric sepsis was adapted for use in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. The newly derived Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Biomarker Risk Model demonstrates good test characteristics internally and requires external validation in a larger cohort. Tools such as Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Biomarker Risk Model have the potential to provide improved risk stratification and prognostic enrichment for future trials in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Density stratification effects in sand-bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, S.; Parker, G.

2004-01-01

In this paper the effects of density stratification in sand-bed rivers are studied by the application of a model of vertical velocity and concentration profiles, coupled through the use of a turbulence closure that retains the buoyancy terms. By making the governing equations dimensionless, it is revealed that the slope is the additional dimensionless parameter introduced by inclusion of the buoyancy terms. The primary new finding is that in general density stratification effects tend to be greater in large, low-slope rivers than in their smaller, steeper brethren. Under high flow conditions the total suspended load and size distribution of suspended sediment can be significantly affected by density stratification, and should be accounted for in any general theory of suspended transport. ?? ASCE.

Principal Stratification — Uses and Limitations

PubMed Central

VanderWeele, Tyler J

2011-01-01

Pearl (2011) asked for the causal inference community to clarify the role of the principal stratification framework in the analysis of causal effects. Here, I argue that the notion of principal stratification has shed light on problems of non-compliance, censoring-by-death, and the analysis of post-infection outcomes; that it may be of use in considering problems of surrogacy but further development is needed; that it is of some use in assessing “direct effects”; but that it is not the appropriate tool for assessing “mediation.” There is nothing within the principal stratification framework that corresponds to a measure of an “indirect” or “mediated” effect. PMID:21841939

Effects of Density Stratification in Compressible Polytropic Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manduca, Cathryn M.; Anders, Evan H.; Bordwell, Baylee; Brown, Benjamin P.; Burns, Keaton J.; Lecoanet, Daniel; Oishi, Jeffrey S.; Vasil, Geoffrey M.

2017-11-01

We study compressible convection in polytropically-stratified atmospheres, exploring the effect of varying the total density stratification. Using the Dedalus pseudospectral framework, we perform 2D and 3D simulations. In these experiments we vary the number of density scale heights, studying atmospheres with little stratification (1 density scale height) and significant stratification (5 density scale heights). We vary the level of convective driving (quantified by the Rayleigh number), and study flows at similar Mach numbers by fixing the initial superadiabaticity. We explore the differences between 2D and 3D simulations, and in particular study the equilibration between different reservoirs of energy (kinetic, potential and internal) in the evolved states.

Brazilian guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes: a position statement from the Brazilian Diabetes Society (SBD), the Brazilian Cardiology Society (SBC) and the Brazilian Endocrinology and Metabolism Society (SBEM).

PubMed

Bertoluci, Marcello Casaccia; Moreira, Rodrigo Oliveira; Faludi, André; Izar, Maria Cristina; Schaan, Beatriz D; Valerio, Cynthia Melissa; Bertolami, Marcelo Chiara; Chacra, Ana Paula; Malachias, Marcus Vinicius Bolivar; Vencio, Sérgio; Saraiva, José Francisco Kerr; Betti, Roberto; Turatti, Luiz; Fonseca, Francisco Antonio Helfenstein; Bianco, Henrique Tria; Sulzbach, Marta; Bertolami, Adriana; Salles, João Eduardo Nunes; Hohl, Alexandre; Trujilho, Fábio; Lima, Eduardo Gomes; Miname, Marcio Hiroshi; Zanella, Maria Teresa; Lamounier, Rodrigo; Sá, João Roberto; Amodeo, Celso; Pires, Antonio Carlos; Santos, Raul D

2017-01-01

Since the first position statement on diabetes and cardiovascular prevention published in 2014 by the Brazilian Diabetes Society, the current view on primary and secondary prevention in diabetes has evolved as a result of new approaches on cardiovascular risk stratification, new cholesterol lowering drugs, and new anti-hyperglycemic drugs. Importantly, a pattern of risk heterogeneity has emerged, showing that not all diabetic patients are at high or very high risk. In fact, most younger patients who have no overt cardiovascular risk factors may be more adequately classified as being at intermediate or even low cardiovascular risk. Thus, there is a need for cardiovascular risk stratification in patients with diabetes. The present panel reviews the best current evidence and proposes a practical risk-based approach on treatment for patients with diabetes. The Brazilian Diabetes Society, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, and the Brazilian Endocrinology and Metabolism Society gathered to form an expert panel including 28 cardiologists and endocrinologists to review the best available evidence and to draft up-to-date an evidence-based guideline with practical recommendations for risk stratification and prevention of cardiovascular disease in diabetes. The guideline includes 59 recommendations covering: (1) the impact of new anti-hyperglycemic drugs and new lipid lowering drugs on cardiovascular risk; (2) a guide to statin use, including new definitions of LDL-cholesterol and in non-HDL-cholesterol targets; (3) evaluation of silent myocardial ischemia and subclinical atherosclerosis in patients with diabetes; (4) hypertension treatment; and (5) the use of antiplatelet therapy. Diabetes is a heterogeneous disease. Although cardiovascular risk is increased in most patients, those without risk factors or evidence of sub-clinical atherosclerosis are at a lower risk. Optimal management must rely on an approach that will cover both cardiovascular disease prevention in individuals in the highest risk as well as protection from overtreatment in those at lower risk. Thus, cardiovascular prevention strategies should be individualized according to cardiovascular risk while intensification of treatment should focus on those at higher risk.

A reconceptualization of age stratification in China.

PubMed

Yin, P; Lai, K H

1983-09-01

Using the concepts of age stratification theory--age effect, cohort effect, and subcohort differences--this paper provides a new perspective on age stratification in China. Currently, the literature suggests that the status of elderly people declined after the Communist Revolution and will further decline with modernization. We discuss the problems with this perspective and argue, instead, that the status of elderly adults did not decline for the majority of the aged during the Maoist years. Rather, the most important change in the age stratification system during the Maoist years was the change in the criterion of age stratification--from age differences to cohort and subcohort differences. Furthermore, the subcohort of elderly adults who suffered the most status decline during the Maoist years--the bourgeoisie--may actually enjoy an increase in status with the recent modernization impetus. Research suggestions from this new perspective are discussed.

Use of risk stratification to guide ambulatory management of neutropenic fever. Australian Consensus Guidelines 2011 Steering Committee.

PubMed

Worth, L J; Lingaratnam, S; Taylor, A; Hayward, A M; Morrissey, S; Cooney, J; Bastick, P A; Eek, R W; Wei, A; Thursky, K A

2011-01-01

Utilization of risk-stratification tools in the setting of neutropenic fever is currently limited by inadequate knowledge and lack of awareness. Within this context, the approach to management of low-risk patients with neutropenic fever is inconsistent with the available evidence across many Australian treating centres. These clinical guidelines define and clarify an accepted standard of care for this patient group given the current evidence base. The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer risk index is presented as the preferred risk assessment tool for determining patient risk. Suitability of ambulatory care within specific patient populations is discussed, with defined eligibility criteria provided to guide clinical decision-making. Detailed recommendations for implementing appropriate ambulatory strategies, such as early discharge and outpatient antibiotic therapy, are also provided. Due consideration is given to infrastructural requirements and other supportive measures at a resourcing and operational level. An analysis of the relevant health economics is also presented. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Principal Stratification — a Goal or a Tool?

PubMed Central

Pearl, Judea

2011-01-01

Principal stratification has recently become a popular tool to address certain causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with post-randomization factors in randomized trials. Here, we analyze the conceptual basis for this framework and invite response to clarify the value of principal stratification in estimating causal effects of interest. PMID:21556288

Marginal Mean Weighting through Stratification: Adjustment for Selection Bias in Multilevel Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Guanglei

2010-01-01

Defining causal effects as comparisons between marginal population means, this article introduces marginal mean weighting through stratification (MMW-S) to adjust for selection bias in multilevel educational data. The article formally shows the inherent connections among the MMW-S method, propensity score stratification, and…

[Physiological and biochemical changes of seeds of Coptis chinensis Franch. in stratification and the effect of ABA treatment].

PubMed

Li, X; Chen, Y; Zhan, J

1997-05-01

The seeds of Coptis chinensis need stratification to break dormancy. In this paper the changes of enzyme activities DNA contents and protein contents in stratification under refrigeration and outdoor temperature conditions, as well as the influence of ABA treatment were studied.

Office-Based Spirometry: A New Model of Care in Preoperative Assessment for Low-Risk Lung Resections.

PubMed

Hudson, Jessica L; Bell, Jennifer M; Crabtree, Traves D; Kreisel, Daniel; Patterson, G Alexander; Meyers, Bryan F; Puri, Varun

2018-01-01

Formal pulmonary function testing with laboratory spirometry (LS) is the standard of care for risk stratification before lung resection. LS and handheld office spirometry (OS) are clinically comparable for forced expiratory volume in 1 second and forced vital capacity. We investigated the safety of preoperative risk stratification based solely on OS. Patients at low-risk for cardiopulmonary complications were enrolled in a single-center prospective study and underwent preoperative OS. Formal LS was not performed when forced expiratory volume in 1 second was more than 60% by OS. Propensity score matching was used to compare patients in the OS group to low-risk institutional database patients (2008 to 2015) who underwent LS and lung resection. Standardized mean differences determined model covariate balance. The McNemar test and log-rank test were performed, respectively, for categorical and continuous paired outcome data. There were 66 prospectively enrolled patients who received OS and underwent pulmonary resection, and 1,290 patients received preoperative LS, resulting in 52 propensity score-matched pairs (83%). There were no deaths and two 30-day readmissions per group. The major morbidity risk was similar in each group (7.7%). All analyses of discordant pair morbidity had p exceeding 0.56. There was no association between length of stay and exposure to OS vs LS (p = 0.31). The estimated annual institutional cost savings from performing OS only and avoiding LS was $38,000. Low-risk patients undergoing lung resection can be adequately and safely assessed using OS without formal LS, with significant cost savings. With upcoming bundled care reimbursement paradigms, such safe and effective strategies are likely to be more widely used. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cellular Proliferation by Multiplex Immunohistochemistry Identifies High-Risk Multiple Myeloma in Newly Diagnosed, Treatment-Naive Patients.

PubMed

Ely, Scott; Forsberg, Peter; Ouansafi, Ihsane; Rossi, Adriana; Modin, Alvin; Pearse, Roger; Pekle, Karen; Perry, Arthur; Coleman, Morton; Jayabalan, David; Di Liberto, Maurizio; Chen-Kiang, Selina; Niesvizky, Ruben; Mark, Tomer M

2017-12-01

Therapeutic options for multiple myeloma (MM) are growing, yet clinical outcomes remain heterogeneous. Cytogenetic analysis and disease staging are mainstays of risk stratification, but data suggest a complex interplay between numerous abnormalities. Myeloma cell proliferation is a metric shown to predict outcomes, but available methods are not feasible in clinical practice. Multiplex immunohistochemistry (mIHC), using multiple immunostains simultaneously, is universally available for clinical use. We tested mIHC as a method to calculate a plasma cell proliferation index (PCPI). By mIHC, marrow trephine core biopsy samples were costained for CD138, a plasma cell-specific marker, and Ki-67. Myeloma cells (CD138 + ) were counted as proliferating if coexpressing Ki-67. Retrospective analysis was performed on 151 newly diagnosed, treatment-naive patients divided into 2 groups on the basis of myeloma cell proliferation: low (PCPI ≤ 5%, n = 87), and high (PCPI > 5%, n = 64). Median overall survival (OS) was not reached versus 78.9 months (P = .0434) for the low versus high PCPI groups. Multivariate analysis showed that only high-risk cytogenetics (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.02; P = .023), International Staging System (ISS) stage > I (HR = 2.30; P = .014), and PCPI > 5% (HR = 1.70; P = .041) had independent effects on OS. Twenty-three (36%) of the 64 patients with low-risk disease (ISS stage 1, without high-risk cytogenetics) were uniquely reidentified as high risk by PCPI. PCPI is a practical method that predicts OS in newly diagnosed myeloma and facilitates broader use of MM cell proliferation for risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implications of delayed bone marrow aspirations at the end of treatment induction for risk stratification and outcome in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Zuna, Jan; Moericke, Anja; Arens, Mari; Koehler, Rolf; Panzer-Grümayer, Renate; Bartram, Claus R; Fischer, Susanna; Fronkova, Eva; Zaliova, Marketa; Schrauder, André; Stanulla, Martin; Zimmermann, Martin; Trka, Jan; Stary, Jan; Attarbaschi, Andishe; Mann, Georg; Schrappe, Martin; Cario, Gunnar

2016-06-01

Minimal residual disease (MRD) at the end of induction therapy is important for risk stratification of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), but bone marrow (BM) aspiration is often postponed or must be repeated to fulfil qualitative and quantitative criteria for morphological assessment of haematological remission and/or MRD analysis. The impact of BM aspiration delay on measured MRD levels and resulting risk stratification is currently unknown. We analysed paired MRD data of 289 paediatric ALL patients requiring a repeat BM aspiration. MRD levels differed in 108 patients (37%) with a decrease in the majority (85/108). This would have resulted in different risk group allocation in 64 of 289 patients (23%) when applying the ALL-Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster 2000 criteria. MRD change was associated with the duration of delay; 40% of patients with delay ≥7 days had a shift to lower MRD levels compared to only 18% after a shorter delay. Patients MRD-positive at the original but MRD-negative at the repeat BM aspiration (n = 50) had a worse 5-year event-free survival than those already negative at first aspiration (n = 115) (86 ± 5% vs. 94 ± 2%; P = 0·024). We conclude that BM aspirations should be pursued as scheduled in the protocol because delayed MRD sampling at end of induction may result in false-low MRD load and distort MRD-based risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Less is More: Comparing the 2015 and 2009 American Thyroid Association Guidelines for Thyroid Nodules and Cancer.

PubMed

Kim, Brian W; Yousman, Wina; Wong, Wei Xiang; Cheng, Cheng; McAninch, Elizabeth A

2016-06-01

The American Thyroid Association (ATA) has recently revised its guidance pertaining to thyroid nodules and follicular cell-derived thyroid cancer. The 2015 guidelines are massive in both scope and scale, with changes in the organizational approach to risk stratification of nodules and cancer, as well as multiple sections covering new material. This review highlights the major structural and organizational changes, focusing attention on the most dramatically changed recommendations, that is, those recommendations that clinicians will find striking because they call for significant divergence from prior clinical practice. The revised approach to thyroid nodule risk stratification is based on sonographic pattern, with an emphasis on pattern rather than growth in the long-term surveillance of nodules. Accumulating data have also been incorporated into an updated risk stratification scheme for thyroid cancer that increases the size of the low-risk pool, in part because low-volume lymph nodal metastases are now considered low risk. The most fundamentally altered recommendation is that lobectomy might be considered as the initial surgical approach for follicular cell-derived thyroid cancers from 1 to 4 cm in size. The underlying theme of the 2015 ATA guidelines is that "less is more." As these new recommendations are adopted, fewer fine-needle aspiration biopsies will need to be done, less extensive surgeries will become more common, less radioactive iodine will be used either for treatment or for diagnostics, and less stimulated thyroglobulin testing will be done. Mastery of these guidelines will help clinicians know when it is reasonable to do less, thus providing responsibly individualized therapy for their patients.

Accurate and robust genomic prediction of celiac disease using statistical learning.

PubMed

Abraham, Gad; Tye-Din, Jason A; Bhalala, Oneil G; Kowalczyk, Adam; Zobel, Justin; Inouye, Michael

2014-02-01

Practical application of genomic-based risk stratification to clinical diagnosis is appealing yet performance varies widely depending on the disease and genomic risk score (GRS) method. Celiac disease (CD), a common immune-mediated illness, is strongly genetically determined and requires specific HLA haplotypes. HLA testing can exclude diagnosis but has low specificity, providing little information suitable for clinical risk stratification. Using six European cohorts, we provide a proof-of-concept that statistical learning approaches which simultaneously model all SNPs can generate robust and highly accurate predictive models of CD based on genome-wide SNP profiles. The high predictive capacity replicated both in cross-validation within each cohort (AUC of 0.87-0.89) and in independent replication across cohorts (AUC of 0.86-0.9), despite differences in ethnicity. The models explained 30-35% of disease variance and up to ∼43% of heritability. The GRS's utility was assessed in different clinically relevant settings. Comparable to HLA typing, the GRS can be used to identify individuals without CD with ≥99.6% negative predictive value however, unlike HLA typing, fine-scale stratification of individuals into categories of higher-risk for CD can identify those that would benefit from more invasive and costly definitive testing. The GRS is flexible and its performance can be adapted to the clinical situation by adjusting the threshold cut-off. Despite explaining a minority of disease heritability, our findings indicate a genomic risk score provides clinically relevant information to improve upon current diagnostic pathways for CD and support further studies evaluating the clinical utility of this approach in CD and other complex diseases.

Speckle-Tracking Echocardiography Improves Pre-operative Risk Stratification Before the Total Cavopulmonary Connection.

PubMed

Park, Patsy W; Atz, Andrew M; Taylor, Carolyn L; Chowdhury, Shahryar M

2017-05-01

Single-ventricle patients with elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) or end-diastolic pressure (EDP) are excluded from undergoing total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC). However, a subset of patients deemed to be at acceptable risk experience prolonged length of stay (LOS) after TCPC. Routine assessment of ventricular function has been inadequate in identifying these high-risk patients. Speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) is a novel method for assessment of myocardial deformation that may be useful in single-ventricle patients. The aim of this study was to perform a contemporary preoperative risk assessment for prolonged LOS to determine whether STE improves risk stratification before TCPC. Our single institution's perioperative data were retrospectively collected. The primary outcome was postoperative LOS >14 days. Longitudinal and circumferential STE deformation measures were analyzed on echocardiograms obtained during preoperative catheterization. Patient-specific, echocardiographic, and catheterization data were included in multivariable logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic area under the curves (AUC) were analyzed. From 2007 to 2014, 135 patients who underwent TCPC were included in the analysis. The median LOS was 11 (IQR 9-14) days. The PVR (P < .01) and circumferential strain rate (CSR) (P < .01) were the only variables independently associated with LOS >14 days. For every 0.1 s -1 CSR increased, there was a 20% increased odds of prolonged LOS. The AUC for CSR was 0.70. The AUC for PVR and EDP combined was 0.68. The AUC for PVR, EDP, and CSR combined was 0.73. Preoperative CSR is independently associated with LOS >14 days and improves preoperative risk stratification in patients undergoing TCPC. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Major bleeding events and risk stratification of antithrombotic agents in hemodialysis: Results from the DOPPS

PubMed Central

Sood, Manish M.; Larkina, Maria; Thumma, Jyothi R.; Tentori, Francesca; Gillespie, Brenda W.; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Mendelssohn, David C.; Chan, Kevin; de Sequera, Patricia; Komenda, Paul; Rigatto, Claudio; Robinson, Bruce M.

2013-01-01

Benefits and risks of antithrombotic agents remain unclear in the hemodialysis population. We aimed to determine variation in antithrombotic agent use, rates of major bleeding events, and to determine factors predictive of stroke and bleeding to allow for risk stratification, enabling more rational decisions about using antithrombotic agents. The sample included 48,144 patients in 12 countries in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study Phase I–IV. Antithrombotic agents included oral anticoagulants (OAC), ASA and anti-platelet agents (APA). OAC prescription, comorbidities and vascular access were assessed at study entry; data on clinical events including hospitalization due to bleeding were collected every four months during follow-up. There was wide variation in OAC (0.3–18%), APA (3–25%) and ASA use (8–36%), and major bleeding rates (0.05–0.22 events/year) among countries. Rates of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and bleeding events requiring hospitalization were elevated in patients prescribed OAC across adjusted models. The CHADS2 score predicted the risk of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients. Gastrointestinal bleeding in the past 12 months was highly predictive of major bleeding events; for patients with previous gastrointestinal bleeding, the rate of bleeding exceeded the rate of stroke by at least 2-fold across categories of CHADS2 score. Prescription of antithrombotic agents varied greatly. The CHADS2 score and a history of gastrointestinal bleeding were predictive of stroke and bleeding events, respectively, with bleeding rates substantially exceeding stroke rates in all groups including patients at high stroke risk. Appropriate risk stratification and a cautious approach should be considered before OAC use in the dialysis population. PMID:23677245

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

PubMed

Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hyperuricemia and the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation--could it refine clinical risk stratification in AF?

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Liu, Chia-Jen; Chen, Su-Jung; Wang, Kang-Ling; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Tsao, Hsuan-Ming; Chen, Shih-Ann

2014-01-01

Although hyperuricemia has been reported to be a risk factor of stroke, the relationship between hyperuricemia and stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain. The goal of the present study was to investigate whether hyperuricemia could potentially refine clinical risk stratification in AF. This study used the "National Health Insurance Research Database" in Taiwan. A total of 7601 AF patients who did not receive antiplatelet agents or oral anticoagulants were identified as the study population. Hyperuricemia was defined as having at least one episode of gout attack necessitating long-term treatment with uric acid-lowering agents. The association between hyperuricemia and ischemic stroke was analyzed. During the follow up of 3.0±2.7 years, 1116 patients (14.7%) experienced ischemic stroke with an annual rate of around 4.9%. Hyperuricemia significantly predicts stroke, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.280 after adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASc score and other comorbidities. Among the 376 patients with a CHA2DS2VASc score of 0, hyperuricemia can further stratify them into 2 groups with different stroke rates (7.1% versus 1.3%, p=0.020). The adjusted HR of hyperuricemia in predicting ischemic stroke diminished from 7.491 for patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 to 1.659 for those with a score of 3, and became insignificant for patients with a score ≥4. Hyperuricemia was a significant risk factor of stroke which could potentially refine the clinical risk stratification in AF. It deserves a prospective trial to investigate whether it would change the current strategy for stroke preventions using oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic stratification model for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer adenocarcinoma treated with surgical resection without adjuvant therapies using metabolic features measured on F-18 FDG PET and postoperative pathologic factors.

PubMed

Kang, Yeon-Koo; Song, Yoo Sung; Cho, Sukki; Jheon, Sanghoon; Lee, Won Woo; Kim, Kwhanmien; Kim, Sang Eun

2018-05-01

In the management of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the prognostic stratification of stage I tumors without indication of adjuvant therapy, remains to be elucidated in order to better select patients who can benefit from additional therapies. We aimed to stratify the prognosis of patients with stage I NSCLC adenocarcinoma using clinicopathologic factors and F-18 FDG PET. We retrospectively enrolled 128 patients with stage I NSCLC without any high-risk factors, who underwent curative surgical resection without adjuvant therapies. Preoperative clinical and postoperative pathologic factors were evaluated by medical record review. Standardized uptake value corrected with lean body mass (SUL max ) was measured on F-18 FDG PET. Among the factors, independent predictors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) were selected using univariate and stepwise multivariate survival analyses. A prognostic stratification model for RFS was designed using the selected factors. Tumors recurred in nineteen patients (14.8%). Among the investigated clinicopathologic and FDG PET factors, SUL max on PET and spread through air spaces (STAS) on pathologic review were determined to be independent prognostic factors for RFS. A prognostic model was designed using these two factors in the following manner: (1) Low-risk: SUL max  ≤ 1.9 and no STAS, (2) intermediate-risk: neither low-risk nor high-risk, (3) high-risk: SUL max> 1.9 and observed STAS. This model exhibited significant predictive power for RFS. We showed that FDG uptake and STAS are significant prognostic markers in stage I NSCLC adenocarcinoma treated with surgical resection without adjuvant therapies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic role of post-infarction C-reactive protein in patients undergoing implantation of cardioverter-defibrillators: design of the C-reactive protein Assessment after Myocardial Infarction to GUide Implantation of DEfibrillator (CAMI GUIDE) study.

PubMed

Bellocci, Fulvio; Biasucci, Luigi M; Gensini, Gian Franco; Padeletti, Luigi; Raviele, Antonio; Santini, Massimo; Giubilato, Giovanna; Landolina, Maurizio; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Raciti, Giovanni; Sassara, Massimo; Castro, Antonello; Kheir, Antoine; Crea, Filippo

2007-04-01

Patients at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) after myocardial infarction (MI) can currently be offered effective means of prevention, such as implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD). However, predictors of SCD able to identify those patients who are at higher risk are still lacking. Whether C-reactive protein (CRP), a serum inflammatory marker with established prognostic accuracy after MI, can also be a predictor of SCD is unclear. The CAMI GUIDE study is designed to evaluate the prognostic role of CRP in patients undergoing ICD implantation after MI according to MADIT II criteria (i.e. left ventricular ejection fraction

A pretest prognostic score to assess patients undergoing exercise or pharmacological stress testing

PubMed Central

Morise, Anthony; Evans, Matthew; Jalisi, Farrukh; Shetty, Rajendra; Stauffer, Marc

2007-01-01

Objective A previously developed pretest score was validated to stratify patients presenting for exercise testing with suspected coronary disease according to the presence of angiographic coronary disease. Our goal was to determine how well this pretest score risk stratified patients undergoing pharmacological and exercise stress tests concerning prognostic endpoints. Design Retrospective cohort analysis. Setting University hospital stress laboratory. Patients 7452 unselected ambulatory patients with symptoms of suspected coronary disease undergoing stress testing between 1995 and 2004. Main outcomes measures All‐cause death, cardiac death and non‐fatal myocardial infarction. Results The rate of all‐cause death was 5.5% (CI 5.0 to 6.1) with 4.3 (SD 2.4) years of follow‐up (Exercise 2.8% (CI 2.3 to 3.2) v Pharmacological group 11.9% (CI 10.5 to 13.3); p<0.001). The rate of cardiac death/myocardial infarction was 2.6% (CI 2.2 to 3.0) (Exercise 1.4% (CI 1.1 to 1.8) v Pharmacological group 5.3% (CI 4.3 to 6.2); p<0.001). In both groups, stratification by pretest score was significant for all‐cause death and the combined endpoint. However, stratification was more effective in the pharmacological group using the combined endpoint rather than all‐cause death. Pharmacological stress patients in intermediate and high risk groups were at higher risk than their respective exercise test cohorts. Referral for pharmacological stress testing was found to be an independent predictor of time to death (2.7 (CI 2.0 to 3.6); p<0.001). Conclusion A pretest score previously validated to stratify according to angiographic outcomes, effectively risk stratified pharmacological and exercise stress patients according to the combined endpoint of cardiac death/myocardial infarction. PMID:17228070

A pretest prognostic score to assess patients undergoing exercise or pharmacological stress testing.

PubMed

Morise, Anthony; Evans, Matthew; Jalisi, Farrukh; Shetty, Rajendra; Stauffer, Marc

2007-02-01

A previously developed pretest score was validated to stratify patients presenting for exercise testing with suspected coronary disease according to the presence of angiographic coronary disease. Our goal was to determine how well this pretest score risk stratified patients undergoing pharmacological and exercise stress tests concerning prognostic endpoints. Retrospective cohort analysis. University hospital stress laboratory. 7452 unselected ambulatory patients with symptoms of suspected coronary disease undergoing stress testing between 1995 and 2004. All-cause death, cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction. The rate of all-cause death was 5.5% (CI 5.0 to 6.1) with 4.3 (SD 2.4) years of follow-up (Exercise 2.8% (CI 2.3 to 3.2) v Pharmacological group 11.9% (CI 10.5 to 13.3); p<0.001). The rate of cardiac death/myocardial infarction was 2.6% (CI 2.2 to 3.0) (Exercise 1.4% (CI 1.1 to 1.8) v Pharmacological group 5.3% (CI 4.3 to 6.2); p<0.001). In both groups, stratification by pretest score was significant for all-cause death and the combined endpoint. However, stratification was more effective in the pharmacological group using the combined endpoint rather than all-cause death. Pharmacological stress patients in intermediate and high risk groups were at higher risk than their respective exercise test cohorts. Referral for pharmacological stress testing was found to be an independent predictor of time to death (2.7 (CI 2.0 to 3.6); p<0.001). A pretest score previously validated to stratify according to angiographic outcomes, effectively risk stratified pharmacological and exercise stress patients according to the combined endpoint of cardiac death/myocardial infarction.

Statins and Risk of Bleeding: An Analysis to Evaluate Possible Bias Due to Prevalent Users and Healthy User Aspects.

PubMed

van Rein, Nienke; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; le Cessie, Saskia; Rosendaal, Frits R; Reitsma, Pieter H; van der Meer, Felix J M; Lijfering, Willem M

2016-05-15

Statins are said to protect against a wide range of diseases. We studied to what extent potential bias influences the results of studies on beneficial side effects of statins. We selected 8,188 atrial fibrillation patients who started treatment with anticoagulants at the Leiden Anticoagulation Clinic in the Netherlands between 2003 and 2009 and experienced 1,683 minor and 451 major bleeds during 18,105 person-years of follow-up. Statins were associated with a risk reduction of 9% for bleeds (hazard ratio = 0.91, 95% confidence interval: 0.82, 1.00). Additionally, analyses were stratified by age, incident users (patients who started statins during follow-up, i.e., an inception cohort), and prevalent statin users (statin users at baseline), as restriction to incident users avoids overoptimistic risk estimates. After stratification, the protective associations disappeared or reversed (range of hazard ratios = 0.99-3.22), except for patients aged 75 years or older. This remaining association could be due to another bias as, according to guidelines, in the elderly, statins should be prescribed only to those with a reasonable life expectancy. This could have resulted in a comparison of fit statin users with less fit nonstatin users (healthy user effect). The apparent protective association of statins on bleeds may be due to bias. We recommend stratification by age and incident and prevalent statin use when studying associations of statins with disease outcomes to avoid overoptimistic risk estimates. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Noninvasive Cardiovascular Risk Assessment of the Asymptomatic Diabetic Patient

PubMed Central

Budoff, Matthew J.; Raggi, Paolo; Beller, George A.; Berman, Daniel S.; Druz, Regina S.; Malik, Shaista; Rigolin, Vera H.; Weigold, Wm. Guy; Soman, Prem

2017-01-01

Increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes is well established; diabetes is associated with at least a 2-fold increased risk of coronary heart disease. Approximately two-thirds of deaths among persons with diabetes are related to cardiovascular disease. Previously, diabetes was regarded as a “coronary risk equivalent,” implying a high 10-year cardiovascular risk for every diabetes patient. Following the original study by Haffner et al., multiple studies from different cohorts provided varying conclusions on the validity of the concept of coronary risk equivalency in patients with diabetes. New guidelines have started to acknowledge the heterogeneity in risk and include different treatment recommendations for diabetic patients without other risk factors who are considered to be at lower risk. Furthermore, guidelines have suggested that further risk stratification in patients with diabetes is warranted before universal treatment. The Imaging Council of the American College of Cardiology systematically reviewed all modalities commonly used for risk stratification in persons with diabetes mellitus and summarized the data and recommendations. This document reviews the evidence regarding the use of noninvasive testing to stratify asymptomatic patients with diabetes with regard to coronary heart disease risk and develops an algorithm for screening based on available data. PMID:26846937

Gastric Cancer Screening by Combined Determination of Serum Helicobacter pylori Antibody and Pepsinogen Concentrations: ABC Method for Gastric Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Chen, Xian-Zhe; Huang, Cheng-Zhi; Hu, Wei-Xian; Liu, Ying; Yao, Xue-Qing

2018-05-20

Gastroscopy combined with gastric mucosa biopsies is currently regarded as a gold standard for diagnosis of gastric cancer. However, its application is restricted in clinical practice due to its invasive property. A new noninvasive population screening process combining the assay of anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody and serum pepsinogen (PG) (ABC method) is adopted to recognize the high-risk patients for further endoscopy examination, avoiding the unnecessary gastroscopy for most population and saving the cost consumption for mass screening annually. Nevertheless, controversies exist for the grouping of ABC method and the intervals of gastroscopy surveillance for each group. In this review, we summarized these popular concerned topics for providing useful references to the healthcare practitioner in clinical practice. The PubMed databases were systematically searched from the inception dates to November 22, 2017, using the keywords "Helicobacter pylori," "Pepsinogens," and "Stomach Neoplasms." Original articles and reviews on the topics were selected. Anti-H. pylori antibody and serum PG concentration showed significant changes under the different status of H. pylori infection and the progression of atrophic gastritis, which can be used for risk stratification of gastric cancer in clinic. In addition, anti-H. pylori antibody titer can be used for further risk stratification of gastric cancer contributing to determine better endoscopy surveillance interval. The early detection and diagnosis of gastric cancer benefit from the risk stratification, but the cutoff values for H. pylori antibody and serum PG concentration require further modification.

Development and external validation of nomograms to predict the risk of skeletal metastasis at the time of diagnosis and skeletal metastasis-free survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Yang, Lin; Xia, Liangping; Wang, Yan; He, Shasha; Chen, Haiyang; Liang, Shaobo; Peng, Peijian; Hong, Shaodong; Chen, Yong

2017-09-06

The skeletal system is the most common site of distant metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC); various prognostic factors have been reported for skeletal metastasis, though most studies have focused on a single factor. We aimed to establish nomograms to effectively predict skeletal metastasis at initial diagnosis (SMAD) and skeletal metastasis-free survival (SMFS) in NPC. A total of 2685 patients with NPC who received bone scintigraphy (BS) and/or 18F-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) and 2496 patients without skeletal metastasis were retrospectively assessed to develop individual nomograms for SMAD and SMFS. The models were validated externally using separate cohorts of 1329 and 1231 patients treated at two other institutions. Five independent prognostic factors were included in each nomogram. The SMAD nomogram had a significantly higher c-index than the TNM staging system (training cohort, P = 0.005; validation cohort, P < 0.001). The SMFS nomogram had significantly higher c-index values in the training and validation sets than the TNM staging system (P < 0.001 and P = 0.005, respectively). Three proposed risk stratification groups were created using the nomograms, and enabled significant discrimination of SMFS for each risk group. The prognostic nomograms established in this study enable accurate stratification of distinct risk groups for skeletal metastasis, which may improve counseling and facilitate individualized management of patients with NPC.

Potential usefulness of apolipoprotein A2 isoforms for screening and risk stratification of pancreatic cancer

PubMed Central

Honda, Kazufumi; Srivastava, Sudhir

2016-01-01

Given the low incidence of pancreatic cancer in the general population, screening of pancreatic cancer in the general population using invasive modalities is not feasible. Combination of invasive screening with noninvasive biomarkers for pancreatic cancer and its precancerous lesions has the potential to reduce mortality due to pancreatic cancer. In this review, we focus on biomarkers found in the blood that can indicate early-stage pancreatic cancer, and we discuss current strategies for screening for pancreatic cancer. We recently identified a unique alteration in apolipoprotein A2 isoforms in pancreatic cancer and its precancerous lesions, and we describe its clinical usefulness as a potential biomarker for the early detection and risk stratification of pancreatic cancer. PMID:27673558

Primary thrombocytosis in children

PubMed Central

Kucine, Nicole; Chastain, Katherine M.; Mahler, Michelle B.; Bussel, James B.

2014-01-01

Myeloproliferative neoplasms are uncommon disorders in children, for which we have limited understanding of the pathogenesis and optimal management. JAK2 and MPL mutations, while common drivers of myeloproliferative neoplasms in adult patients, are not clearly linked to pediatric disease. Management and clinical outcomes in adults have been well delineated with defined recommendations for risk stratification and treatment. This is not the case for pediatric patients, for whom there is neither a standard approach to workup nor any consensus regarding management. This review will discuss thrombocytosis in children, including causes of thrombocytosis in children, the limited knowledge we have regarding pediatric primary thrombocytosis, and our thoughts on potential risk stratification and management, and future questions to be answered by laboratory research and collaborative clinical study. PMID:24688110

An Improved Model of Cryogenic Propellant Stratification in a Rotating, Reduced Gravity Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliveira, Justin; Kirk, Daniel R.; Schallhorn, Paul A.; Piquero, Jorge L.; Campbell, Mike; Chase, Sukhdeep

2007-01-01

This paper builds on a series of analytical literature models used to predict thermal stratification within rocket propellant tanks. The primary contribution to the literature is to add the effect of tank rotation and to demonstrate the influence of rotation on stratification times and temperatures. This work also looks levels of thermal stratification for generic propellant tanks (cylindrical shapes) over a parametric range of upper-stage coast times, heating levels, rotation rates, and gravity levels.

A clinical risk stratification tool for predicting treatment resistance in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Perlis, Roy H

2013-07-01

Early identification of depressed individuals at high risk for treatment resistance could be helpful in selecting optimal setting and intensity of care. At present, validated tools to facilitate this risk stratification are rarely used in psychiatric practice. Data were drawn from the first two treatment levels of a multicenter antidepressant effectiveness study in major depressive disorder, the STAR*D (Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression) cohort. This cohort was divided into training, testing, and validation subsets. Only clinical or sociodemographic variables available by or readily amenable to self-report were considered. Multivariate models were developed to discriminate individuals reaching remission with a first or second pharmacological treatment trial from those not reaching remission despite two trials. A logistic regression model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve exceeding .71 in training, testing, and validation cohorts and maintained good calibration across cohorts. Performance of three alternative models with machine learning approaches--a naïve Bayes classifier and a support vector machine, and a random forest model--was less consistent. Similar performance was observed between more and less severe depression, men and women, and primary versus specialty care sites. A web-based calculator was developed that implements this tool and provides graphical estimates of risk. Risk for treatment resistance among outpatients with major depressive disorder can be estimated with a simple model incorporating baseline sociodemographic and clinical features. Future studies should examine the performance of this model in other clinical populations and its utility in treatment selection or clinical trial design. Copyright © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Best practice in the use of natalizumab in multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Natalizumab is approved for the treatment of patients with relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis who have failed first-line treatment with traditional disease-modifying therapies or who have highly active disease. The drug has proved highly effective, both in a clinical trial setting and in clinical practice, with marked reductions in the rate of clinical relapses and slowed disease progression. These clinical outcomes are mirrored by a marked reduction in disease activity as evidenced by magnetic resonance imaging of the brain. However, natalizumab treatment has been associated with a risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a potentially fatal condition caused by JC virus (JCV) activation. When this condition was detected in a clinical trial shortly after approval, the drug was immediately and voluntarily withdrawn from the market. As a condition of its reinstatement, stringent pharmacovigilance measures and a risk management plan were enforced. The recent availability of a two-step enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for the presence of anti-JCV antibodies (free testing is available in a central laboratory for registered centers), along with an ever-improving understanding of other risk factors such as prior immunosuppressant use and duration of treatment, allow an increasingly refined stratification of the risk of PML. This improved stratification of risk can help guide decisions about treatment. This review will also deal with other topics of relevance to clinical practice such as the development of antinatalizumab antibodies and their negative implications in terms of hypersensitivity reactions and loss of efficacy, withdrawal of treatment, and compassionate pediatric use. PMID:23483450

Risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes: is there a role for gene expression profiling?

PubMed

Zeidan, Amer M; Prebet, Thomas; Saad Aldin, Ehab; Gore, Steven David

2014-04-01

Evaluation of: Pellagatti A, Benner A, Mills KI et al. Identification of gene expression-based prognostic markers in the hematopoietic stem cells of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. J. Clin. Oncol. 31(28), 3557-3564 (2013). Patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) exhibit wide heterogeneity in clinical outcomes making accurate risk-stratification an integral part of the risk-adaptive management paradigm. Current prognostic schemes for MDS rely on clinicopathological parameters. Despite the increasing knowledge of the genetic landscape of MDS and the prognostic impact of many newly discovered molecular aberrations, none to date has been incorporated formally into the major risk models. Efforts are ongoing to use data generated from genome-wide high-throughput techniques to improve the 'individualized' outcome prediction for patients. We here discuss an important paper in which gene expression profiling (GEP) technology was applied to marrow CD34(+) cells from 125 MDS patients to generate and validate a standardized GEP-based prognostic signature.

Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: the current consensus.

PubMed

Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D; Pomeroy, Scott L

2016-06-01

Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3-17). Published and unpublished data over the past 5 years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90 % survival), average (standard) risk (75-90 % survival), high risk (50-75 % survival) and very high risk (<50 % survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low-risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN-amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently completed clinical trials, this consensus can serve as an outline for prioritization of certain molecular subsets of tumors to define and validate risk groups as a basis for future clinical trials.

Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: The Current Consensus

PubMed Central

Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C.; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A.; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W.; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M.; Taylor, Michael D.; Pomeroy, Scott L.

2016-01-01

Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3–17). Published and unpublished data over the past five years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90% survival), average (standard) risk (75–90% survival), high risk (50–75% survival) and very high risk (<50% survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently completed clinical trials, this consensus can serve as an outline for prioritization of certain molecular subsets of tumors to define and validate risk groups as a basis for future clinical trials. PMID:27040285

Potential effects of reclassifying CKD as a coronary heart disease risk equivalent in the US population.

PubMed

Foster, Meredith C; Rawlings, Andreea M; Marrett, Elizabeth; Neff, David; Grams, Morgan E; Kasiske, Bertram L; Willis, Kerry; Inker, Lesley A; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth

2014-05-01

Persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for cardiovascular disease events, but are not classified as such in current US cholesterol treatment guidelines. We examined potential effects of modified guidelines in which CKD was considered a "coronary heart disease (CHD) risk equivalent" for risk stratification. Nationally representative cross-sectional study. 4,823 adults 20 years or older from the 2007-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Cardiovascular risk stratification based on current US cholesterol treatment guidelines and 2 simulated scenarios in which CKD stages 3-5 or CKD stages 1-5 were considered a CHD risk equivalent. Proportion of persons with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol at levels above treatment targets and above the threshold for lipid-lowering therapy initiation, based on current guidelines and the 2 simulated scenarios. Under current guidelines, 55.1 million adults in 2010 did not achieve the target LDL cholesterol goal. Of these, 25.2 million had sufficiently elevated levels to meet recommendations for initiating lipid-lowering therapy; 12.1 million were receiving this therapy but remained above goal. When CKD stages 3-5 were considered a CHD risk equivalent, 59.2 million persons were above target LDL cholesterol goals, with 28.5 million and 13.3 million meriting therapy initiation and intensification, respectively. When CKD stages 1-5 were considered a CHD risk equivalent, 65.2 million adults were above goal, with 33.9 million and 14.4 million meriting therapy initiation and intensification, respectively. CKD and LDL cholesterol defined using a single laboratory value. Many adults in the United States currently do not meet recommended goals for LDL cholesterol levels. Modifying the current cholesterol guidelines to include CKD as a CHD risk equivalent would lead to a substantial increase in both the number of persons with levels above LDL cholesterol treatment targets and those recommended to initiate lipid-lowering therapy. Copyright © 2014 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Propagation of 3D internal gravity wave beams in a slowly varying stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Boyu; Akylas, T. R.

2017-11-01

The time-mean flows induced by internal gravity wave beams (IGWB) with 3D variations have been shown to have dramatic implications for long-term IGWB dynamics. While uniform stratifications are convenient both theoretically and in the laboratory, stratifications in the ocean can vary by more than an order of magnitude over the ocean depth. Here, in view of this fact, we study the propagation of a 3D IGWB in a slowly varying stratification. We assume that the stratification varies slowly relative to the local variations in the wave profile. In the 2D case, the IGWB bends in response to the changing stratification, but nonlinear effects are minor even in the finite amplitude regime. For a 3D IGWB, in addition to bending, we find that nonlinearity results in the transfer of energy from waves to a large-scale time-mean flow associated with the mean potential vorticity, similar to IGWB behavior in a uniform stratification. In a weakly nonlinear setting, we derive coupled evolution equations that govern this process. We also use these equations to determine the stability properties of 2D IGWB to 3D perturbations. These findings indicate that 3D effects may be relevant and possibly fundamental to IGWB dynamics in nature. Supported by NSF Grant DMS-1512925.

Do Health Professionals Need Additional Competencies for Stratified Cancer Prevention Based on Genetic Risk Profiling?

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Susmita; Henneman, Lidewij; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Burton, Alice; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Burton, Hilary

2015-01-01

There is growing evidence that inclusion of genetic information about known common susceptibility variants may enable population risk-stratification and personalized prevention for common diseases including cancer. This would require the inclusion of genetic testing as an integral part of individual risk assessment of an asymptomatic individual. Front line health professionals would be expected to interact with and assist asymptomatic individuals through the risk stratification process. In that case, additional knowledge and skills may be needed. Current guidelines and frameworks for genetic competencies of non-specialist health professionals place an emphasis on rare inherited genetic diseases. For common diseases, health professionals do use risk assessment tools but such tools currently do not assess genetic susceptibility of individuals. In this article, we compare the skills and knowledge needed by non-genetic health professionals, if risk-stratified prevention is implemented, with existing competence recommendations from the UK, USA and Europe, in order to assess the gaps in current competences. We found that health professionals would benefit from understanding the contribution of common genetic variations in disease risk, the rationale for a risk-stratified prevention pathway, and the implications of using genomic information in risk-assessment and risk management of asymptomatic individuals for common disease prevention. PMID:26068647

Heart rate variability as predictive factor for sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Sessa, Francesco; Anna, Valenzano; Messina, Giovanni; Cibelli, Giuseppe; Monda, Vincenzo; Marsala, Gabriella; Ruberto, Maria; Biondi, Antonio; Cascio, Orazio; Bertozzi, Giuseppe; Pisanelli, Daniela; Maglietta, Francesca; Messina, Antonietta; Mollica, Maria P; Salerno, Monica

2018-02-23

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) represents about 25% of deaths in clinical cardiology. The identification of risk factors for SCD is the philosopher's stone of cardiology and the identification of non-invasive markers of risk of SCD remains one of the most important goals for the scientific community.The aim of this review is to analyze the state of the art around the heart rate variability (HRV) as a predictor factor for SCD.HRV is probably the most analyzed index in cardiovascular risk stratification technical literature, therefore an important number of models and methods have been developed.Nowadays, low HRV has been shown to be independently predictive of increased mortality in post- myocardial infarction patients, heart failure patients, in contrast with the data of the general population.Contrariwise, the relationship between HRV and SCD has received scarce attention in low-risk cohorts. Furthermore, in general population the attributable risk is modest and the cost/benefit ratio is not always convenient.The HRV evaluation could become an important tool for health status in risks population, even though the use of HRV alone for risk stratification of SCD is limited and further studies are needed.

Thermal Stratification Analysis for Sodium Fast Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, James; Anderson, Mark; Baglietto, Emilio

The sodium fast reactor (SFR) is the most mature reactor concept of all the generation-IV nuclear systems and is a promising reactor design that is currently under development by several organizations. The majority of sodium fast reactor designs utilize a pool type arrangement which incorporates the primary coolant pumps and intermediate heat exchangers within the sodium pool. These components typically protrude into the pool thus reducing the risk and severity of a loss of coolant accidents. To further ensure safe operation under even the most severe transients a more comprehensive understanding of key thermal hydraulic phenomena in this pool ismore » desired. One of the key technology gaps identified for SFR safety is determining the extent and the effects of thermal stratification developing in the pool during postulated accident scenarios such as a protected or unprotected loss of flow incident. In an effort to address these issues, detailed flow models of transient stratification in the pool during an accident can be developed. However, to develop the calculation models, and ensure they can reproduce the underlying physics, highly spatially resolved data is needed. This data can be used in conjunction with advanced computational fluid dynamic calculations to aid in the development of simple reduced dimensional models for systems codes such as SAM and SAS4A/SASSYS-1.« less

Evaluation of Quantra Hologic Volumetric Computerized Breast Density Software in Comparison With Manual Interpretation in a Diverse Population

PubMed Central

Richard-Davis, Gloria; Whittemore, Brianna; Disher, Anthony; Rice, Valerie Montgomery; Lenin, Rathinasamy B; Dollins, Camille; Siegel, Eric R; Eswaran, Hari

2018-01-01

Objective: Increased mammographic breast density is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer development, regardless of age or ethnic background. The current gold standard for categorizing breast density consists of a radiologist estimation of percent density according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) criteria. This study compares paired qualitative interpretations of breast density on digital mammograms with quantitative measurement of density using Hologic’s Food and Drug Administration–approved R2 Quantra volumetric breast density assessment tool. Our goal was to find the best cutoff value of Quantra-calculated breast density for stratifying patients accurately into high-risk and low-risk breast density categories. Methods: Screening digital mammograms from 385 subjects, aged 18 to 64 years, were evaluated. These mammograms were interpreted by a radiologist using the ACR’s BI-RADS density method, and had quantitative density measured using the R2 Quantra breast density assessment tool. The appropriate cutoff for breast density–based risk stratification using Quantra software was calculated using manually determined BI-RADS scores as a gold standard, in which scores of D3/D4 denoted high-risk densities and D1/D2 denoted low-risk densities. Results: The best cutoff value for risk stratification using Quantra-calculated breast density was found to be 14.0%, yielding a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 77%, and positive and negative predictive values of 75% and 69%, respectively. Under bootstrap analysis, the best cutoff value had a mean ± SD of 13.70% ± 0.89%. Conclusions: Our study is the first to publish on a North American population that assesses the accuracy of the R2 Quantra system at breast density stratification. Quantitative breast density measures will improve accuracy and reliability of density determination, assisting future researchers to accurately calculate breast cancer risks associated with density increase. PMID:29511356

Customized oligonucleotide microarray gene expression-based classification of neuroblastoma patients outperforms current clinical risk stratification.

PubMed

Oberthuer, André; Berthold, Frank; Warnat, Patrick; Hero, Barbara; Kahlert, Yvonne; Spitz, Rüdiger; Ernestus, Karen; König, Rainer; Haas, Stefan; Eils, Roland; Schwab, Manfred; Brors, Benedikt; Westermann, Frank; Fischer, Matthias

2006-11-01

To develop a gene expression-based classifier for neuroblastoma patients that reliably predicts courses of the disease. Two hundred fifty-one neuroblastoma specimens were analyzed using a customized oligonucleotide microarray comprising 10,163 probes for transcripts with differential expression in clinical subgroups of the disease. Subsequently, the prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM) was applied to a first set of patients with maximally divergent clinical courses (n = 77). The classification accuracy was estimated by a complete 10-times-repeated 10-fold cross validation, and a 144-gene predictor was constructed from this set. This classifier's predictive power was evaluated in an independent second set (n = 174) by comparing results of the gene expression-based classification with those of risk stratification systems of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States. The first set of patients was accurately predicted by PAM (cross-validated accuracy, 99%). Within the second set, the PAM classifier significantly separated cohorts with distinct courses (3-year event-free survival [EFS] 0.86 +/- 0.03 [favorable; n = 115] v 0.52 +/- 0.07 [unfavorable; n = 59] and 3-year overall survival 0.99 +/- 0.01 v 0.84 +/- 0.05; both P < .0001) and separated risk groups of current neuroblastoma trials into subgroups with divergent outcome (NB2004: low-risk 3-year EFS 0.86 +/- 0.04 v 0.25 +/- 0.15, P < .0001; intermediate-risk 1.00 v 0.57 +/- 0.19, P = .018; high-risk 0.81 +/- 0.10 v 0.56 +/- 0.08, P = .06). In a multivariate Cox regression model, the PAM predictor classified patients of the second set more accurately than risk stratification of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.756 [95% CI, 2.544 to 8.893]). Integration of gene expression-based class prediction of neuroblastoma patients may improve risk estimation of current neuroblastoma trials.

Evaluation of Quantra Hologic Volumetric Computerized Breast Density Software in Comparison With Manual Interpretation in a Diverse Population.

PubMed

Richard-Davis, Gloria; Whittemore, Brianna; Disher, Anthony; Rice, Valerie Montgomery; Lenin, Rathinasamy B; Dollins, Camille; Siegel, Eric R; Eswaran, Hari

2018-01-01

Increased mammographic breast density is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer development, regardless of age or ethnic background. The current gold standard for categorizing breast density consists of a radiologist estimation of percent density according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) criteria. This study compares paired qualitative interpretations of breast density on digital mammograms with quantitative measurement of density using Hologic's Food and Drug Administration-approved R2 Quantra volumetric breast density assessment tool. Our goal was to find the best cutoff value of Quantra-calculated breast density for stratifying patients accurately into high-risk and low-risk breast density categories. Screening digital mammograms from 385 subjects, aged 18 to 64 years, were evaluated. These mammograms were interpreted by a radiologist using the ACR's BI-RADS density method, and had quantitative density measured using the R2 Quantra breast density assessment tool. The appropriate cutoff for breast density-based risk stratification using Quantra software was calculated using manually determined BI-RADS scores as a gold standard, in which scores of D3/D4 denoted high-risk densities and D1/D2 denoted low-risk densities. The best cutoff value for risk stratification using Quantra-calculated breast density was found to be 14.0%, yielding a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 77%, and positive and negative predictive values of 75% and 69%, respectively. Under bootstrap analysis, the best cutoff value had a mean ± SD of 13.70% ± 0.89%. Our study is the first to publish on a North American population that assesses the accuracy of the R2 Quantra system at breast density stratification. Quantitative breast density measures will improve accuracy and reliability of density determination, assisting future researchers to accurately calculate breast cancer risks associated with density increase.

Author Correction: Targeted gadofullerene for sensitive magnetic resonance imaging and risk-stratification of breast cancer.

PubMed

Han, Zheng; Wu, Xiaohui; Roelle, Sarah; Chen, Chuheng; Schiemann, William P; Lu, Zheng-Rong

2018-01-08

In the original version of this Article, the penultimate sentence of the Abstract incorrectly read 'The dose of the contrast agent for effective molecular MRI is only slightly lower than that of ZD2-Cy5.5 (0.5 µmol kg -1 ) in fluorescence imaging.' The correct version states 'higher' in place of 'lower'. This error has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Standard International prognostic index remains a valid predictor of outcome for patients with aggressive CD20+ B-cell lymphoma in the rituximab era.

PubMed

Ziepert, Marita; Hasenclever, Dirk; Kuhnt, Evelyn; Glass, Bertram; Schmitz, Norbert; Pfreundschuh, Michael; Loeffler, Markus

2010-05-10

The International Prognostic Index (IPI) is widely used for risk stratification of patients with aggressive B-cell lymphoma. The introduction of rituximab has markedly improved outcome, and R-CHOP (rituximab + cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone) has become the standard treatment for CD20(+) diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. To investigate whether the IPI has maintained its power for risk stratification when rituximab is combined with CHOP, we analyzed the prognostic relevance of IPI in three prospective clinical trials. In total, 1,062 patients treated with rituximab were included (MabThera International Trial [MInT], 380 patients; dose-escalated regimen of cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, etoposide, and prednisone (MegaCHOEP) trial, 72 patients; CHOP + rituximab for patients older than age 60 years [RICOVER-60] trial, 610 patients). A multivariate proportional hazards modeling was performed for single IPI factors under rituximab on event-free, progression-free, and overall survival. IPI score was significant for all three end points. Rituximab significantly improved treatment outcome within each IPI group resulting in a quenching of the Kaplan-Meier estimators. However, IPI was a significant prognostic factor in all three end points and the ordering of the IPI groups remained valid. The relative risk estimates of single IPI factors and their order in patients treated with R-CHOP were similar to those found with CHOP. The effects of rituximab were superimposed on the effects of CHOP with no interactions between chemotherapy and antibody therapy. These results demonstrate that the IPI is still valid in the R-CHOP era.

Barrett's oesophagus: how should we manage it?

PubMed Central

Old, O J; Almond, L M; Barr, H

2015-01-01

Endoscopic surveillance remains the core management of non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, although questions regarding its efficacy in reducing mortality from oesophageal adenocarcinoma have yet to be definitively answered, and randomised trial data are awaited. One of the main goals of current research is to achieve risk stratification, identifying those at high risk of progression. The recent British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) guidelines on surveillance have taken a step in this direction with interval stratification on clinicopathological grounds. The majority of Barrett's oesophagus remains undiagnosed, and this has led to investigation of methods of screening for Barrett's oesophagus, ideally non-endoscopic methods capable of reliably identifying dysplasia. Chemoprevention to prevent progression is currently under investigation, and may become a key component of future treatment. The availability of effective endotherapy means that accurate identification of dysplasia is more important than ever. There is now evidence to support intervention with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for low-grade dysplasia (LGD), but recent data have emphasised the need for consensus pathology for LGD. Ablative treatment has become well established for high-grade dysplasia, and should be employed for flat lesions where there is no visible abnormality. Of the ablative modalities, RFA has the strongest evidence base. Endoscopic resection should be performed for all visible lesions, and is now the treatment of choice for T1a tumours. Targeting those with high-risk disease will, hopefully, lead to efficacious and cost-effective surveillance, and the trend towards earlier intervention to halt progression gives cause for optimism that this will ultimately result in fewer deaths from oesophageal adenocarcinoma. PMID:28839797

Risk Associated with Pulse Pressure on Out-of-Office Blood Pressure Measurement

PubMed Central

Gu, Yu-Mei; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Liu, Yan-Ping; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W.; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Boggia, José; Thijs, Lutgarde; Staessen, Jan A.

2014-01-01

Background Longitudinal studies have demonstrated that the risk of cardiovascular disease increases with pulse pressure (PP). However, PP remains an elusive cardiovascular risk factor with findings being inconsistent between studies. The 2013 ESH/ESC guideline proposed that PP is useful in stratification and suggested a threshold of 60 mm Hg, which is 10 mm Hg higher compared to that in the 2007 guideline; however, no justification for this increase was provided. Methodology Published thresholds of PP are based on office blood pressure measurement and often on arbitrary categorical analyses. In the International Database on Ambulatory blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes (IDACO) and the International Database on HOme blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcome (IDHOCO), we determined outcome-driven thresholds for PP based on ambulatory or home blood pressure measurement, respectively. Results The main findings were that for people aged <60 years, PP did not refine risk stratification, whereas in older people the thresholds were 64 and 76 mm Hg for the ambulatory and home PP, respectively. However, PP provided little added predictive value over and beyond classical risk factors. PMID:26587443

Children’s Oncology Group’s 2013 Blueprint for Research: Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

PubMed Central

Hunger, Stephen P.; Loh, Mignon L.; Whitlock, James A.; Winick, Naomi J.; Carroll, William L.; Devidas, Meenakshi; Raetz, Elizabeth A.

2014-01-01

Approximately 90% of the 2,000 children, adolescents, and young adults enrolled each year in Children’s Oncology Group acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) trials will be cured. However, high-risk subsets with significantly inferior survival remain, including infants, newly diagnosed patients with age ≥10 years, white blood count ≥50,000/µl, poor early response or T-cell ALL, and relapsed ALL patients. Effective strategies to improve survival include better risk stratification, optimizing standard chemotherapy and combining targeted therapies with cytotoxic chemotherapy, the latter of which is dependent upon identification of key driver mutations present in ALL. PMID:23255467

Intravenous Imaging Contrast Media Complications: The Basics That Every Clinician Needs to Know.

PubMed

Rose, Trevor A; Choi, Jung W

2015-09-01

Intravenous contrast is commonly used in noninvasive imaging procedures such as magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography and can evaluate blood vessels and better characterize soft-tissue lesions. Although the incidence of adverse events after administration of contrast is low, it is important that clinicians and radiologists minimize risks and respond quickly and effectively when reactions occur. We will discuss a range of adverse events to iodinated and gadolinium-based contrast agents, including allergic-like reactions, nephrotoxicity, extravasation, and nephrogenic systemic fibrosis. We will review risk stratification for patients, as well as premedication and treatment of adverse events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Head and Neck Cancer and the Elderly Patient.

PubMed

Cervenka, Brian P; Rao, Shyam; Bewley, Arnaud F

2018-05-22

Management of head and neck cancer in the elderly patient is particularly challenging given the high morbidity associated with treatment. Surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy have all been demonstrated as effective in older patients; however, older patients are more susceptible to treatment-induced toxicity, which can limit the survival benefits of certain interventions. This susceptibility is better associated with the presence of multiple comorbidities and decreasing functional status than with age alone. Screening tools allow for risk stratification, treatment deintensification, and even treatment avoidance in patients who are deemed at high-risk of being harmed by standard therapy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of a risk stratification tool for fall-related injury in a state-wide cohort.

PubMed

McCoy, Thomas H; Castro, Victor M; Cagan, Andrew; Roberson, Ashlee M; Perlis, Roy H

2017-02-06

A major preventable contributor to healthcare costs among older individuals is fall-related injury. We sought to validate a tool to stratify such risk based on readily available clinical data, including projected medication adverse effects, using state-wide medical claims data. Sociodemographic and clinical features were drawn from health claims paid in the state of Massachusetts for individuals aged 35-65 with a hospital admission for a period spanning January-December 2012. Previously developed logistic regression models of hospital readmission for fall-related injury were refit in a testing set including a randomly selected 70% of individuals, and examined in a training set comprised of the remaining 30%. Medications at admission were summarised based on reported adverse effect frequencies in published medication labelling. The Massachusetts health system. A total of 68 764 hospitalised individuals aged 35-65 years. Hospital readmission for fall-related injury defined by claims code. A total of 2052 individuals (3.0%) were hospitalised for fall-related injury within 90 days of discharge, and 3391 (4.9%) within 180 days. After recalibrating the model in a training data set comprised of 48 136 individuals (70%), model discrimination in the remaining 30% test set yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.76). AUCs were similar across age decades (0.71 to 0.78) and sex (0.72 male, 0.76 female), and across most common diagnostic categories other than psychiatry. For individuals in the highest risk quartile, 11.4% experienced fall within 180 days versus 1.2% in the lowest risk quartile; 57.6% of falls occurred in the highest risk quartile. This analysis of state-wide claims data demonstrates the feasibility of predicting fall-related injury requiring hospitalisation using readily available sociodemographic and clinical details. This translatable approach to stratification allows for identification of high-risk individuals in whom interventions are likely to be cost-effective. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Near-Surface Effects of Free Atmosphere Stratification in Free Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellado, Juan Pedro; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C.; Garcia, Jade Rachele

2016-04-01

The effect of a linear stratification in the free atmosphere on near-surface properties in a free convective boundary layer (CBL) is investigated by means of direct numerical simulation. We consider two regimes: a neutral stratification regime, which represents a CBL that grows into a residual layer, and a strong stratification regime, which represents the equilibrium (quasi-steady) entrainment regime. We find that the mean buoyancy varies as z^{-1/3}, in agreement with classical similarity theory. However, the root-mean-square (r.m.s.) of the buoyancy fluctuation and the r.m.s. of the vertical velocity vary as z^{-0.45} and ln z, respectively, both in disagreement with theory. These scaling laws are independent of the stratification regime, but the depth over which they are valid depends on the stratification. In the strong stratification regime, this depth is about 20 to 25 % of the CBL depth instead of the commonly used 10 %, which we only observe under neutral conditions. In both regimes, the near-surface flow structure can be interpreted as a hierarchy of circulations attached to the surface. Based on this structure, we define a new near-surface layer in free convection, the plume-merging layer, that is conceptually different from the constant-flux layer. The varying depth of the plume-merging layer depending on the stratification accounts for the varying depth of validity of the scaling laws. These findings imply that the buoyancy transfer law needed in mixed-layer and single-column models is well described by the classical similarity theory, independent of the stratification in the free atmosphere, even though other near-surface properties, such as the r.m.s. of the buoyancy fluctuation and the r.m.s. of the vertical velocity, are inconsistent with that theory.

Doppler endoscopic probe as a guide to risk stratification and definitive hemostasis of peptic ulcer bleeding.

PubMed

Jensen, Dennis M; Ohning, Gordon V; Kovacs, Thomas O G; Ghassemi, Kevin A; Jutabha, Rome; Dulai, Gareth S; Machicado, Gustavo A

2016-01-01

For more than 4 decades endoscopists have relied on ulcer stigmata for risk stratification and as a guide to hemostasis. None used arterial blood flow underneath stigmata to predict outcomes. For patients with severe peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB), we used a Doppler endoscopic probe (DEP) for (1) detection of blood flow underlying stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH), (2) quantitating rates of residual arterial blood flow under SRH after visually directed standard endoscopic treatment, and (3) comparing risks of rebleeding and actual 30-day rebleed rates for spurting arterial bleeding (Forrest [F] IA) and oozing bleeding (F IB). Prospective cohort study of 163 consecutive patients with severe PUB and different SRH. All blood flow detected by the DEP was arterial. Detection rates were 87.4% in major SRH-spurting arterial bleeding (F IA), non-bleeding visible vessel (F IIA), clot (F IIB)-and were significantly lower at 42.3% (P < .0001) for an intermediate group of oozing bleeding (F IB) or flat spot (F IIC). For spurting bleeding (F IA) versus oozing (F IB), baseline DEP arterial flow was 100% versus 46.7%, residual blood flow detected after endoscopic hemostasis was 35.7% versus 0%, and 30-day rebleed rates were 28.6% versus 0% (all P < .05). (1) For major SRH versus oozing or spot, the arterial blood flow detection rate by the DEP was significantly higher, indicating a higher rebleed risk. (2) Before and after endoscopic treatment, spurting (F IA) PUB had significantly higher rates of blood flow detection than oozing (F IB) PUB and a significantly higher 30-day rebleed rate. (3) The DEP is recommended as a new endoscopic guide with SRH to improve risk stratification and potentially definitive hemostasis for PUB. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify pulmonary hypertension patients according to European society of cardiology exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs.

PubMed

Rehman, Michaela B; Garcia, Rodrigue; Christiaens, Luc; Larrieu-Ardilouze, Elisa; Howard, Luke S; Nihoyannopoulos, Petros

2018-04-15

Right ventricular function is the major determinant of morbidity and mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The ESC risk assessment strategy for PAH is based on clinical status, exercise testing, NTproBNP, imaging and haemodynamics but does not include right ventricular function. Our aims were to test the power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify PAH patients according to ESC exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs and to determine if the classification power of echocardiographic parameters varied in chronic thrombo-embolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). We prospectively and consecutively recruited 46 PAH patients and 42 CTEPH patients referred for cardio-pulmonary exercise testing and comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography. Exercise testing parameters analyzed were peak oxygen consumption, percentage of predicted maximal oxygen consumption and the slope of ventilation against carbon dioxide production. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal diagnostic cut-off values of echocardiographic parameters for classifying the patients in intermediate or high risk category according to exercise testing. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function were the best for classifying in PAH (area under the curve 0.815 to 0.935). Measurements of right ventricular pressure overload (0.810 to 0.909) were optimal for classifying according to exercise testing in CTEPH. Measurements of left ventricular function were of no use in either group. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function can classify according to exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs in PAH. However, this is not the case in CTEPH where pressure overload, rather than right ventricular function seems to be linked to exercise performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Doppler Endoscopic Probe as a Guide to Risk Stratification and Definitive Hemostasis of Peptic Ulcer Bleeding

PubMed Central

Jensen, Dennis M.; Ohning, Gordon V.; Kovacs, Thomas OG; Ghassemi, Kevin A.; Jutabha, Rome; Dulai, Gareth S.; Machicado, Gustavo A.

2015-01-01

Background and Aims For more than 4 decades endoscopists have relied on ulcer stigmata for risk stratification and as a guide to hemostasis. None used arterial blood flow underneath stigmata to predict outcomes. For patients with severe peptic ulcer bleeding (PUBs), we used Doppler endoscopic probe (DEP) for: 1. detection of blood flow underlying stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH), 2. quantitating rates of residual arterial blood flow under SRH after visually directed standard endoscopic treatment, and 3. comparing risks of rebleeding and actual 30 day rebleed rates for spurting arterial bleeding (Forrest – FIA) and oozing bleeding (FIB). Methods Prospective cohort study of 163 consecutive patients with severe PUBs and different SRH. Results All blood flow detected by DEP was arterial. Detection rates were 87.4% in major SRH - spurting arterial bleeding (FIA), non bleeding visible vessel (FIIA), clot (FIIB) - and significantly lower at 42.3% (p<0.0001) for intermediate group of oozing bleeding (FIB) or flat spot (FIIC). For spurting bleeding (FIA) vs. oozing (FIB), baseline DEP arterial flow was 100% vs. 46.7%; residual blood flow detected after endoscopic hemostasis was 35.7% vs. 0%; and 30 day rebleed rates were 28.6% vs. 0% (all p<0.05). Conclusions 1. For major SRH vs. oozing or spot, the arterial blood flow detection rates by DEP was significantly higher, indicating a higher rebleed risk. 2. Before and after endoscopic treatment, spurting FIA PUB’s had significantly higher rates of blood flow detection than oozing FIB PUB’s and a significantly higher 30 rebleed rate. 3. DEP is recommended as a new endoscopic guide with SRH to improve risk stratification and potentially definitive hemostasis for PUBs. PMID:26318834

Application of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a stratification tool on admission in an Italian acute medical ward: A perspective study.

PubMed

Spagnolli, Walter; Rigoni, Marta; Torri, Emanuele; Cozzio, Susanna; Vettorato, Elisa; Nollo, Giandomenico

2017-03-01

We aimed to assess the performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as tool for patient risk stratification at admission in an acute Internal Medicine ward and to ensure patient placement in ward areas with the required and most appropriate intensity of care. As secondary objective, we considered NEWS performance in two subgroups of patients: sudden cardiac events (acute coronary syndromes and arrhythmic events), and chronic respiratory insufficiency. We conducted a perspective cohort single centre study on 2,677 unselected patients consecutively admitted from July 2013 to March 2015 in the Internal Medicine ward of the hospital of Trento, Italy. The NEWS was mandatory collected on ward admission. We defined three risk categories for clinical deterioration: low score (NEWS 0-4), medium score (NEWS 5-6), and high score (NEWS≥7). Following adverse outcomes were considered: total and early (<72 hours) in-hospital mortality, urgent transfers to a higher intensity of care. A logistic regression model quantified the association between outcomes and NEWS. For patients with NEWS >4 vs patients with NEWS <4, the risk of early death increased from 12 to 36 times, total mortality from 3.5 to 9, and urgent transfers from 3.5 to 7. In patients with sudden cardiac events, lower scores were significantly associated with higher risk of transfer to a higher intensity of care. In patients affected by chronic hypoxaemia, adverse outcomes occurred less in medium and high score categories of NEWS. National Early Warning Score assessed on ward admission may enable risk stratification of clinical deterioration and can be a good predictor of in-hospital serious adverse outcomes, although sudden cardiac events and chronic hypoxaemia could constitute some limits. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation and Management of Wolff-Parkinson-White in Athletes

PubMed Central

Rao, Ashwin L.; Salerno, Jack C.; Asif, Irfan M.; Drezner, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

Context: Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) is a cardiac conduction system disorder characterized by abnormal accessory conduction pathways between the atria and the ventricles. Symptomatic patients classically present with palpitations, presyncope, or syncope that results from supraventricular tachycardia. While rare, sudden cardiac death may be the first manifestation of underlying disease and occurs more frequently in exercising individuals. Evidence Acquisition: Medline and PubMed databases were evaluated through 2012, with the following keywords: WPW, Wolff-Parkinson-White, pre-excitation, sudden cardiac death, risk stratification, and athletes. Selected articles identified through the primary search, along with relevant references from those articles, were reviewed for pertinent clinical information regarding the identification, evaluation, risk stratification, and management of WPW as they pertained to the care of athletes. Study Design: Systematic review. Level of Evidence: Level 1. Results: Diagnosis of WPW is confirmed by characteristic electrocardiogram changes, which include a delta wave, short PR interval, and widened QRS complex. Utilization of the electrocardiogram as part of the preparticipation physical evaluation may allow for early identification of asymptomatic individuals with a WPW pattern. Risk stratification techniques identify individuals at risk for malignant arrhythmias who may be candidates for curative therapy through transcatheter ablation. Conclusion: WPW accounts for at least 1% of sudden death in athletes and has a prevalence of at least 1 to 4.5 per 1000 children and adults. The risk of lethal arrhythmia appears to be higher in asymptomatic children than in adults, and sudden cardiac death is often the sentinel event. The athlete with WPW should be evaluated for symptoms and the presence of intermittent or persistent pre-excitation, which dictates further consultation, treatment, and monitoring strategies as well as return to play. PMID:24982705

Classification of drugs with different risk profiles.

PubMed

Saedder, Eva Aggerholm; Brock, Birgitte; Nielsen, Lars Peter; Bonnerup, Dorthe Krogsgaard; Lisby, Marianne

2015-08-01

A risk stratification approach is needed to identify patients at high risk of medication errors and a resulting high need of medication review. The aim of this study was to perform risk stratification (distinguishing between low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs) for drugs found to cause serious adverse reactions due to medication errors. The study employed a modified Delphi technique. Drugs from a systematic literature search were included into two rounds of a Delphi process. A panel of experts was asked to evaluate each identified drug's potential for harm and for clinically relevant drug-drug interactions on a scale from 1 (low risk) to 9 (high risk). A total of 36 experts were appointed to serve on the panel. Consensus was reached for 29/57 (51%) drugs or drug classes that cause harm, and for 32/57 (56%) of the drugs or drug classes that cause interactions. For the remaining drugs, a decision was made based on the median score. Two lists, one stating the drugs' potential for causing harm and the other stating clinically relevant drug-drug interactions, were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs. Based on a modified Delphi technique, we created two lists of drugs stratified into a low-risk, a medium-risk and a high-risk group of clinically relevant interactions or risk of harm to patients. The lists could be incorporated into a risk-scoring tool that stratifies the performance of medication reviews according to patients' risk of experiencing adverse reactions. none. not relevant.

Numerical investigation of potential stratification caused by a cryogenic helium spill inside a tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, Cameron; Malecha, Ziemowit; Jedrusyna, Artur

2018-04-01

The sudden release of cryogenic fluid into an accelerator tunnel can pose a significant health and safety risk. For this reason, it is important to evaluate the consequences of such a spill. Previous publications concentrated on either Oxygen Deficiency Hazard or the evaluation of mathematical models using experimental data. No studies to date have focussed on the influence of cryogen inlet conditions on flow development. In this paper, the stratification behaviour of low-temperature helium released into an air-filled accelerator tunnel is investigated for varying helium inlet diameters. A numerical model was constructed using the OpenFOAM Toolbox of a generalised 3D geometry, with similar hydraulic characteristics to the CERN and SLAC tunnels. This model has been validated against published experimental and numerical data. A dimensionless parameter, based on Bakke number, was then determined for the onset of stratification, taking into account the helium inlet diameter; a dimensionless parameter for the degree of stratification was also employed. The simulated flow behaviour is described in terms of these dimensionless parameters, as well as the temperature and oxygen concentration at various heights throughout the tunnel.

Genomic Characterization of Paediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia: an Opportunity for Precision Medicine Therapeutics

PubMed Central

Tasian, Sarah K; Hunger, Stephen P

2016-01-01

Major advances in genetic and epigenetic profiling of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) have enhanced the understanding of key biological subsets of de novo and relapsed ALL, which has led to improved risk stratification of patients. These achievements have further defined critical leukaemia-associated pathways and somatic alterations that may be preferentially sensitive to treatment with kinase inhibitors, epigenetic therapy or other novel agents. Therapeutic success in childhood ALL currently relies upon refined risk stratification of patients based on (1) underlying biological and clinical characteristics and (2) depth of initial treatment response with appropriate modulation of chemotherapy intensity. This review describes the current mutational landscape of childhood ALL and discusses opportunities for substantial improvements in survival with implementation of molecularly targeted therapies. PMID:27984637

[Amyloidosis: Up-to-date].

PubMed

Magy-Bertrand, N

2016-08-01

Amyloidosis is mainly a systemic disease belonging to protein-folding diseases. The past 10 years have shown significant progress in typing and the clinical management of amyloidosis, in the identification of novel prognostic markers for risk-stratification, and also in the development of new therapeutic agents. Biological molecular techniques are now able to type amyloidosis which were unidentified. Cardiac MRI and biomarkers allow a precise risk-stratification, especially in AL amyloidosis. If necessary, this prognostic evaluation may lead to rapid changes in the chemotherapy treatment. Emerging treatments rely on biotherapies, gene therapy, immunotherapy and blocking analogous agents. They give hope about an increase of survival of patients with systemic amyloidosis. Copyright © 2016 Société Nationale Française de Médecine Interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Genomic characterization of paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: an opportunity for precision medicine therapeutics.

PubMed

Tasian, Sarah K; Hunger, Stephen P

2017-03-01

Major advances in genetic and epigenetic profiling of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) have enhanced the understanding of key biological subsets of de novo and relapsed ALL, which has led to improved risk stratification of patients. These achievements have further defined critical leukaemia-associated pathways and somatic alterations that may be preferentially sensitive to treatment with kinase inhibitors, epigenetic therapy or other novel agents. Therapeutic success in childhood ALL currently relies upon refined risk stratification of patients based on (i) underlying biological and clinical characteristics, and (ii) depth of initial treatment response with appropriate modulation of chemotherapy intensity. This review describes the current mutational landscape of childhood ALL and discusses opportunities for substantial improvements in survival with implementation of molecularly targeted therapies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A score model to predict risk of events in patients with Brugada Syndrome.

PubMed

Sieira, Juan; Conte, Giulio; Ciconte, Giuseppe; Chierchia, Gian-Battista; Casado-Arroyo, Ruben; Baltogiannis, Giannis; Di Giovanni, Giacomo; Saitoh, Yukio; Juliá, Justo; Mugnai, Giacomo; La Meir, Mark; Wellens, Francis; Czapla, Jens; Pappaert, Gudrun; de Asmundis, Carlo; Brugada, Pedro

2017-06-07

Risk stratification in Brugada Syndrome (BS) remains challenging. Arrhythmic events can occur life-long and studies with long follow-ups are sparse. The aim of our study was to investigate long-term prognosis and risk stratification of BS patients. A single centre consecutive cohort of 400 BS patients was included and analysed. Mean age was 41.1 years, 78 patients (19.5%) had a spontaneous type I electrocardiogram (ECG). Clinical presentation was aborted sudden cardiac death (SCD) in 20 patients (5.0%), syncope in 111 (27.8%) and asymptomatic in 269 (67.3%). Familial antecedents of SCD were found in 184 individuals (46.0%), in 31 (7.8%) occurred in first-degree relatives younger than 35 years. An implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) was placed in 176 (44.0%). During a mean follow-up of 80.7 months, 34 arrhythmic events occurred (event rate: 1.4% year). Variables significantly associated to events were: presentation as aborted SCD (Hazard risk [HR] 20.0), syncope (HR 3.7), spontaneous type I (HR 2.7), male gender (HR 2.7), early SCD in first-degree relatives (HR 2.9), SND (HR 5.0), inducible VA (HR 4.7) and proband status (HR 2.1). A score including ECG pattern, early familial SCD antecedents, inducible electrophysiological study, presentation as syncope or as aborted SCD and SND had a predictive performance of 0.82. A score greater than 2 conferred a 5-year event probability of 9.2%. BS patients remain at risk many years after diagnosis. Early SCD in first-degree relatives and SND are risk factors for arrhythmic events. A simple risk score might help in the stratification and management of BS patients. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The arterial baroreflex effectiveness index in risk stratification of chronic heart failure patients who are candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Fernandes Serôdio, João; Martins Oliveira, Mário; Matoso Laranjo, Sérgio; Tavares, Cristiano; Silva Cunha, Pedro; Abreu, Ana; Branco, Luísa; Alves, Sandra; Rocha, Isabel; Cruz Ferreira, Rui

2016-06-01

Baroreflex function is an independent marker of prognosis in heart failure (HF). However, little is known about its relation to response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). The aim of this study is to assess arterial baroreflex function in HF patients who are candidates for CRT. The study population consisted of 25 patients with indication for CRT, aged 65±10 years, NYHA functional class ≥III in 52%, QRS width 159±15 ms, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 29±5%, left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) 150±48 ml, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) 357±270 pg/ml, and peak oxygen consumption (peak VO2) 18.4±5.0 ml/kg/min. An orthostatic tilt test was performed to assess the baroreflex effectiveness index (BEI) by the sequence method. This group was compared with 15 age-matched healthy individuals. HF patients showed a significantly depressed BEI during tilt (31±12% vs. 49±18%, p=0.001). A lower BEI was associated with higher BNP (p=0.038), lower peak VO2 (p=0.048), and higher LVESV (p=0.031). By applying a cut-off value of 25% for BEI, two clusters of patients were identified: lower risk cluster (BEI >25%) QRS 153 ms, LVESV 129 ml, BNP 146 pg/ml, peak VO2 19.0 ml/kg/min; and higher risk cluster (IEB ≤25%) QRS 167 ms, LVESV 189 ml, BNP 590 pg/ml, peak VO2 16.2 ml/kg/min. Candidates for CRT show depressed arterial baroreflex function. Lower BEI was observed in high-risk HF patients. Baroreflex function correlated closely with other clinical HF parameters. Therefore, BEI may improve risk stratification in HF patients undergoing CRT. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Detection and risk stratification of women at high risk of preterm birth in rural communities near Nagpur, India.

PubMed

Patel, Archana; Prakash, Amber Abhijeet; Pusdekar, Yamini V; Kulkarni, Hemant; Hibberd, Patricia

2017-09-19

Presently, preterm birth is globally the leading cause of neonatal mortality. Prompt community based identification of women at high risk for preterm births (HRPB) can either help to avert preterm births or avail effective interventions to reduce neonatal mortality due to preterm births. We evaluated the performance of a package to train community workers to detect the presence of signs or symptoms of HRPB. Pregnant women enrolled in the intervention arm of a cluster randomized trial of Antenatal Corticosteroids (ACT Trial) conducted at Nagpur, India were informed about 4 directly observable signs and symptoms of preterm labor. Community health workers actively monitored these women from 24 to 36 weeks of gestation for these signs or symptoms. If they were present (HRPB positive) the identified women were brought to government health facilities for assessment and management. HRPB positive could also be determined by the provider if the woman presented directly to the facility. Risk stratification was based on the number of signs or symptoms present. The outcome of preterm birth was based on the clinical assessment of gestational age < 37 weeks at delivery or a birth weight of <2000 g. Between July 1, 2012 and 30 November, 2013, 686 of 7050 (9.7%) pregnant women studied, delivered preterm. 732 (10.4%) women were HRPB positive, of whom 333 (45.5%) delivered preterm. Of the remaining 6318(89.6%) HRPB negative women 353 (5.6%) delivered preterm. The likelihood ratio (LR) of a preterm birth in the HRPB positives was 8.14 (95% confidence interval 7.16-9.26). The LR of a preterm birth increased in women who had more signs or symptoms of HRBP (p < 0.00001). More signs or symptoms of HRPB were also associated with a shorter time to delivery, lower birth weight and higher rates of stillbirths, neonatal deaths and postnatal complications. Addition of risk stratification improved the prediction of preterm delivery (Integrated Discrimination Improvement 17% (95% CI 15-19%)). The package for detection of signs and symptoms of HRPB is feasible, promising and likely to improve management of preterm labor. NCT01073475 on February 21, 2010 and NCT01084096 on March 9, 2010.

Seed flotation and germination of salt marsh plants: The effects of stratification, salinity, and/or inundation regime

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elsey-Quirk, T.; Middleton, B.A.; Proffitt, C.E.

2009-01-01

We examined the effects of cold stratification and salinity on seed flotation of eight salt marsh species. Four of the eight species were tested for germination success under different stratification, salinity, and flooding conditions. Species were separated into two groups, four species received wet stratification and four dry stratification and fresh seeds of all species were tested for flotation and germination. Fresh seeds of seven out of eight species had flotation times independent of salinity, six of which had average flotation times of at least 50 d. Seeds of Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens had the shortest flotation times, averaging 24 and 26 d, respectively. Following wet stratification, the flotation time of S. alterniflora seeds in higher salinity water (15 and 36 ppt) was reduced by over 75% and germination declined by more than 90%. Wet stratification reduced the flotation time of Distichlis spicata seeds in fresh water but increased seed germination from 2 to 16% in a fluctuating inundation regime. Fresh seeds of Iva frutescens and S. alternflora were capable of germination and therefore are non-dormant during dispersal. Fresh seeds of I. frutescens had similar germination to dry stratified seeds ranging 25-30%. Salinity reduced seed germination for all species except for S. alterniflora. A fluctuating inundation regime was important for seed germination of the low marsh species and for germination following cold stratification. The conditions that resulted in seeds sinking faster were similar to the conditions that resulted in higher germination for two of four species. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Challenges of stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation in clinical practice.

PubMed

Hobbs, F D Richard; Leach, I

2011-09-01

Strokes and transient ischaemic attacks in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) can be largely prevented. Risk stratification and appropriate prophylactic regimens help to alleviate the burden of AF-related thromboembolism. Guidelines recommend routine anticoagulation with oral vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for patients at moderate-to-high risk of stroke, and acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) for those at low risk of stroke. ASA is less effective at reducing the risk of stroke than VKAs; however, ASA does not require monitoring or dose adjustment. Trials of anticoagulants show consistent benefits of oral VKAs for primary and secondary stroke prevention in patients with AF. Nevertheless, VKAs do require frequent coagulation monitoring and dose adjustment because of their variable dose-response profile, narrow therapeutic window, increased risk for bleeding complications and numerous food and drug interactions. This review aims to provide an overview of the clinical challenges of anticoagulant therapy for the prevention of stroke in patients with AF.

QT Interval Screening in Methadone Maintenance Treatment: Report of a SAMHSA Expert Panel

PubMed Central

Martin, Judith A.; Campbell, Anthony; Killip, Thomas; Kotz, Margaret; Krantz, Mori J.; Kreek, Mary Jeanne; McCarroll, Brian A.; Mehta, Davendra; Payte, J. Thomas; Stimmel, Barry; Taylor, Trusandra; Wilford, Bonnie B.

2014-01-01

In an effort to enhance patient safety in Opioid Treatment Programs (OTPs), the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) convened a multi-disciplinary Expert Panel on the Cardiac Effects of Methadone. Panel members reviewed the literature, regulatory actions, professional guidances, and OTPs’ experiences regarding adverse cardiac events associated with methadone. The Panel concluded that, to the extent possible, every OTP should have a universal Cardiac Risk Management Plan (incorporating clinical assessment, ECG assessment, risk stratification, and prevention of drug interactions) for all patients, and should strongly consider patient-specific risk minimization strategies (such as careful patient monitoring, obtaining ECGs as indicated by a particular patient’s risk profile, and adjusting the methadone dose as needed) for patients with identified risk factors for adverse cardiac events. The Panel also suggested specific modifications to informed consent documents, patient education, staff education, and methadone protocols. PMID:22026519

Influence of oral hygiene and its interaction with standard of education on the risk of oral cancer in women who neither smoked nor drank alcohol: a hospital-based, case-control study.

PubMed

Chen, F; He, B-C; Yan, L-J; Qiu, Y; Lin, L-S; Cai, L

2017-04-01

We know of only limited data about the role of oral hygiene and the risk of oral cancer with different standards of education. The aim of this study was to assess the association between oral hygiene and risk of oral cancer, with stratification by standard of education, in Chinese women. We organised a case-control study with 250 women with oral cancer and 996 age-matched controls in Fujian, China. Data were collected by personal interview using a structured questionnaire. We used unconditional logistic regression with stratification by educational standard to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI. Tooth-brushing twice a day or more was inversely related to the risk of oral cancer in women with high school education or above (OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.98), but not in those who were illiterate or had primary-middle school education. Wearing dentures showed an increased risk only in less well-educated women: the OR were 2.23 (95% CI 1.14 to 4.34) for the illiterate and 1.68 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.62) for the primary-middle school group. The loss of more than five teeth and oral ulceration were associated with increased risks of oral cancer in all three groups. There was also a multiplicative interaction between oral hygiene and standard of education for risk of oral cancer (p=0.001). Our results suggest that oral hygiene seems to have a critical role in the risk of oral cancer in Chinese women, but this effect may be modified by their educational standard. Copyright © 2016 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Yee Mei; Lang, Dora; Lockwood, Craig

Increasing numbers of studies identify new prognostic factors for categorising chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia adult cancer patients into high- or low-risk groups for adverse outcomes. These groupings are used to tailor therapy according to level of risk. However many emerging factors with prognostic significance remain controversial, being based on single studies only. A systematic review was conducted to determine the strength of association of all identified factors associated with the outcomes of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia patients. The participants included were adults of 15 years old and above, with a cancer diagnosis and who underwent cancer treatment.The review focused on clinical factors and their association with the outcomes of cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia at presentation of fever.All quantitative studies published in English which investigated clinical factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia were considered.The primary outcome of interest was to identify the clinical factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia. Electronic databases searched from their respective inception date up to December 2011 include MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, Science-Direct, Scopus and Mednar. The quality of the included studies was subjected to assessment by two independent reviewers. The standardised critical appraisal tool from the Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI) was used to assess the following criteria: representativeness of study population; clearly defined prognostic factors and outcomes; whether potential confounders were addressed and appropriate statistical analysis was undertaken for the study design. Data extraction was performed using a modified version of the standardised extraction tool from the JBI-MAStARI. Prognostic factors and the accompanying odds ratio reported for the significance of these factors that were identified by multivariate regression, were extracted from each included study. Studies results were pooled in statistical meta-analysis using Review Manager 5.1. Where statistical pooling was not possible, the findings were presented in narrative form. Seven studies (four prospective cohort and three retrospective cohort) investigating 22 factors in total were included. Fixed effects meta-analysis showed: hypotension [OR=1.66, 95%CI, 1.14-2.41, p=0.008] and thrombocytopenia [OR=3.92, 95%CI, 2.19-7.01, p<0.00001)] were associated with high-risk of adverse outcomes for febrile neutropenia. Other factors that were statistically significant from single studies included: age of patients, clinical presentation at fever onset, presence or absence of co-morbidities, infections, duration and severity of neutropenia state. Five prognostic factors failed to demonstrate an association between the variables and the outcomes measured and they include: presence of pneumonia, total febrile days, median days to fever, recovery from neutropenia and presence of moderate clinical symptoms in association with Gram-negative bacteraemia. Despite the overall limitations identified in the included studies, this review has provided a synthesis of the best available evidence for the prognostic factors used in risk stratification of febrile neutropenia patients. However, the dynamic aspects of prognostic model development, validation and utilisation have not been addressed adequately thus far. Given the findings of this review, it is timely to address these issues and improve the utilisation of prognostic models in the management of febrile neutropenia patients. The identified factors are similar to the factors in current prognostic models. However, additional factors that were reported to be statistically significant in this review (thrombocytopenia, presence of central venous catheter, and duration and severity of neutropenia) have not previously been included in prognostic models. This review has found these factors may improve the performance of current models by adding or replacing some of the factors. The role of risk stratification of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia patients continues to evolve as the practice of risk-based therapy has been demonstrated to be beneficial to patients, clinicians and health care organisations. Further research to identify new factors /markers is needed to develop a new model which is reliable and accurate for these patients, regardless of cancer types. A robust and well-validated prognostic model is the key to enhance patient safety in the risk-based management of cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia.

A new risk stratification algorithm for the management of patients with adrenal incidentalomas.

PubMed

Birsen, Onur; Akyuz, Muhammet; Dural, Cem; Aksoy, Erol; Aliyev, Shamil; Mitchell, Jamie; Siperstein, Allan; Berber, Eren

2014-10-01

Although adrenal incidentalomas (AI) are detected in ≤5% of patients undergoing chest and abdominal computed tomography (CT), their management is challenging. The current guidelines include recommendations from the National Institutes of Health, the American Association of Endocrine Surgeons (AAES), and the American Association for Cancer Education (AACE). The aim of this study was to develop a new risk stratification model and compare its performance against the existing guidelines for managing AI. A risk stratification model was designed by assigning points for adrenal size (1, 2, or 3 points for tumors <4, 4-6, or >6 cm, respectively) and Hounsfield unit (HU) density on noncontrast CT (1, 2, or 3 points for HU <10, 10-20, or >20, respectively). This model was applied retrospectively to 157 patients with AI managed in an endocrine surgery clinic to assign a score to each tumor. The utility of this model versus the AAES/AACE guidelines was assessed. Of the 157 patients, 54 (34%), had tumors <4 cm with HU <10 (a score of 2). One third of these were hormonally active on biochemical workup and underwent adrenalectomy. The remaining two thirds were nonsecretory lesions and have been followed conservatively with annual testing. In 103 patients (66%), the adrenal mass was >4 cm and/or had indeterminate features on noncontrast CT (HU >10, irregular borders, heterogeneity), and adrenalectomy was performed after hormonal evaluation was completed (10 were hormonally active on biochemical testing). Seven of these patients (7%) had adrenocortical cancer on final pathology with tumor size <4 cm in 0, 4-6 cm in 1, and >6 cm in 5 patients. Of the hormonally inactive patients, 32% had a score of 3, 38% 4, and 30% 5 or 6. The incidence of adrenocortical cancer in these subgroups was 0, 0, and 25%, respectively. This study shows that an algorithm that utilizes the hormonal activity at the first decision step followed by a consolidated risk stratification, based on tumor size and HU density, has a potential to spare a substantial number of patients from unnecessary "diagnostic" surgery for AI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Principal Stratification: A Tool for Understanding Variation in Program Effects across Endogenous Subgroups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Page, Lindsay C.; Feller, Avi; Grindal, Todd; Miratrix, Luke; Somers, Marie-Andree

2015-01-01

Increasingly, researchers are interested in questions regarding treatment-effect variation across partially or fully latent subgroups defined not by pretreatment characteristics but by postrandomization actions. One promising approach to address such questions is principal stratification. Under this framework, a researcher defines endogenous…

Effects of viscosity and conductivity stratification on the linear stability and transient growth within compressible Couette flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikia, Bijaylakshmi; Ramachandran, Ashwin; Sinha, Krishnendu; Govindarajan, Rama

2017-02-01

Accurate prediction of laminar to turbulent transition in compressible flows is a challenging task, as it can be affected by a combination of factors. Compressibility causes large variations in thermodynamic as well as transport properties of a gas, which in turn are known to affect flow stability. We study the stratification of individual transport properties and their combined behavior. We also examine the effect of a change in the magnitude of viscosity and conductivity on flow stability. The Couette flow of a perfect gas is our model problem and both modal and non-modal analyses are carried out. We notice a large destabilizing role of the increase in the conductivity value and a dramatic stabilizing effect of mean viscosity stratification, over a range of free-stream Mach number, Reynolds number, Prandtl number, and disturbance wavenumber. In the combined case, viscosity stratification plays a dominant role. We find this to be the case for finite-time transient growth in the parameter regime below linear instability as well as asymptotically at large time. A budget of the transient growth energy amplification is also shown to identify the effects of transport properties on the constituents of perturbation energy. The extensive results presented in this paper, we believe should motivate those studying more realistic flows to examine how these contrasting effects of stratification come together.

An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

PubMed Central

Mora-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Ramos-López, Javier; Quintanilla Fernández, Teresa; García-García, Antonio; Díez-Mazuela, Daniel; García-Alberola, Arcadi

2018-01-01

Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT)), and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV)). Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages) and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT). The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain. PMID:29494497

Integrated e-Health approach based on vascular ultrasound and pulse wave analysis for asymptomatic atherosclerosis detection and cardiovascular risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Santana, Daniel Bia; Zócalo, Yanina A; Armentano, Ricardo L

2012-03-01

New strategies are urgently needed to identify subjects at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) development or complications. A National Public University Center (CUiiDARTE) was created in Uruguay, based on six main pillars: 1) integration of experts in different disciplines and creation of multidisciplinary teams, 2) incidence in public and professional education programs to give training in the use of new technologies and to shift the focus from ACVD treatment to disease prevention, 3) implementation of free vascular studies in the community (distributed rather than centralized healthcare), 4) innovation and application of e-Health and noninvasive technology and approaches, 5) design and development of a biomedical approach to determine the target population and patient workflow, and 6) improvement in individual risk estimation and differentiation between aging and ACVD-related arterial changes using population-based epidemiological and statistical patient-specific models. This work describes main features of CUiiDARTE project implementation, the scientific and technological steps and innovations done for individual risk stratification, and sub-clinical ACVD diagnosis. © 2012 IEEE

Role of risk stratification by SPECT, PET, and hybrid imaging in guiding management of stable patients with ischaemic heart disease: expert panel of the EANM cardiovascular committee and EACVI.

PubMed

Acampa, Wanda; Gaemperli, Oliver; Gimelli, Alessia; Knaapen, Paul; Schindler, Thomas H; Verberne, Hein J; Zellweger, Michael J

2015-12-01

Risk stratification has become increasingly important in the management of patients with suspected or known ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Recent guidelines recommend that these patients have their care driven by risk assessment. The purpose of this position statement is to summarize current evidence on the value of cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and hybrid imaging in risk stratifying asymptomatic or symptomatic patients with suspected IHD, patients with stable disease, patients after coronary revascularization, heart failure patients, and specific patient population. In addition, this position statement evaluates the impact of imaging results on clinical decision-making and thereby its role in patient management. The document represents the opinion of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) Cardiovascular Committee and of the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and intends to stimulate future research in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Shaped Goals: Teaching Undergraduates the Effects of Social Stratification on the Formulation of Goals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Touzard, Giselle

2009-01-01

This article describes an in-class activity that helps undergraduate students to understand the effects of their socio-economic position on the formulation, pursuit, and achievement of goals. Social stratification and inequality have an initial impact on the formulation of goals. Through this exercise students will perceive the effects of having a…

Risk stratification of patients with diabetes and the role of sodium glucose co-transporter inhibitors 2 during Ramadan fasting.

PubMed

Adnan, Zaina

2017-09-01

The month of Ramadan represents a golden opportunity for better management of patients with diabetes not only during Ramadan month, but also through the entire year. Pre Ramadan period is crucial for evaluating and preparing patients with diabetes intending to Fast Ramadan. The risk stratification categories should take into consideration patients with diabetes having specific conditions such as nephrotic syndrome who are predisposed to thrombosis independent to their estimated glomerular filtration rate and glycated haemoglobin. Furthermore, population-specific conditions such as nomadic Bedouins living in remote areas should be considered as part of the very high risk category for fasting Ramadan. Published data regarding the use of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors during Ramadan is very limited. Dapagliflozin was the only agent studied during Ramadan. Therefore, it is suggested to categorize this group of agents differently from other agents such as metformin and incretin based therapy studied vastly during Ramadan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neuroblastoma: clinical and biological approach to risk stratification and treatment.

PubMed

Tolbert, Vanessa P; Matthay, Katherine K

2018-05-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common extra-cranial solid tumor of childhood and the most common in the first year of life. It is a unique malignancy in that infants often present with either localized or metastatic disease that can spontaneously regress without intervention while older children can succumb to the disease after months to years of arduous therapy. Given this wide range of outcomes, the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group was created to stratify patients based on presenting characteristics and tumor biology in order to guide intensity of treatment strategies. The goal has been to decrease therapy for low-risk patients to avoid long-term complications while augmenting and targeting therapies for high-risk patients to improve overall survival. The international risk stratification depends on age, stage, histology, MYCN gene amplification status, tumor cell ploidy and segmental chromosomal abnormalities. Treatment for asymptomatic low-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 98% is often observation or surgical resection alone, whereas intermediate-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 90% require moderate doses of response-adjusted chemotherapy along with resection. High-risk patients undergo multiple cycles of combination chemotherapy before surgery, followed by consolidation with myeloablative autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and local radiation and finally immunotherapy with differentiation therapy as maintenance phase. With this approach, outcome for patients with neuroblastoma has improved, as the field continues to expand efforts in more targeted therapies for high-risk patients.

Surveillance of Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Outcome Using Risk Stratifications at a Tertiary Care Center in Thailand

PubMed Central

Vijarnsorn, Chodchanok; Laohaprasitiporn, Duangmanee; Durongpisitkul, Kritvikrom; Chantong, Prakul; Soongswang, Jarupim; Cheungsomprasong, Paweena; Nana, Apichart; Sriyoschati, Somchai; Subtaweesin, Thawon; Thongcharoen, Punnarerk; Prakanrattana, Ungkab; Krobprachya, Jiraporn; Pooliam, Julaporn

2011-01-01

Objectives. To determine in-hospital mortality and complications of cardiac surgery in pediatric patients and identify predictors of hospital mortality. Methods. Records of pediatric patients who had undergone cardiac surgery in 2005 were reviewed retrospectively. The risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1) method, the Aristotle basic complexity score (ABC score), and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery Mortality score (STS-EACTS score) were used as measures. Potential predictors were analyzed by risk analysis. Results. 230 pediatric patients had undergone congenital cardiac surgery. Overall, the mortality discharge was 6.1%. From the ROC curve of the RACHS-1, the ABC level, and the STS-EACTS categories, the validities were determined to be 0.78, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively. Mortality risks were found at the high complexity levels of the three tools, bypass time >85 min, and cross clamp time >60 min. Common morbidities were postoperative pyrexia, bleeding, and pleural effusion. Conclusions. Overall mortality and morbidities were 6.1%. The RACHS-1 method, ABC score, and STS-EACTS score were helpful for risk stratification. PMID:21738856

Effects of treatment and seed source on germination of eastern redcedar seed

Treesearch

David F. Van Haverbeke; C. W. Comer

1985-01-01

Germination of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) seeds was best with a 96-hour soak in citric acid (10,000 ppm), with 6 weeks of moist-warm (24° C) stratification, and 10 weeks of moist-cold (5° C) stratification. Geographic seed sources responded differently to treatment. Use of fresh seeds could reduce the time in moist-warm stratification, would improve...

Validation of an accelerated high-sensitivity troponin T assay protocol in an Australian cohort with chest pain.

PubMed

Parsonage, William A; Greenslade, Jaimi H; Hammett, Christopher J; Lamanna, Arvin; Tate, Jillian R; Ungerer, Jacobus P; Chu, Kevin; Than, Martin; Brown, Anthony F T; Cullen, Louise

2014-02-17

To validate an accelerated biomarker strategy using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) assay for diagnosing acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain; and to validate this strategy in combination with the National Heart Foundation of Australia/Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand risk stratification model. Single-centre, prospective, observational cohort study of 764 adults presenting to a tertiary hospital with symptoms of possible acute coronary syndrome between November 2008 and February 2011. AMI or cardiac death within 24 hours of presentation (primary), and major adverse cardiac events within 30 days (secondary). An elevated hs-cTnT assay result above the 99th percentile at either the 0 h or 2 h time points had sensitivity of 96.4% (95% CI, 87.9%-99.0%), specificity of 82.6% (95% CI, 79.7%-85.2%), negative predictive value of 99.7% (95% CI, 98.8%-99.9%) and positive predictive value of 30.5% (95% CI, 24.2%-37.6%) for diagnosing AMI. Compared with a traditional 6 h cardiac troponin testing strategy, the accelerated strategy led to reclassification of risk in only two patients with adverse cardiac outcomes, with no net effect on appropriate management. In patients presenting with chest pain, an accelerated biomarker strategy using the hs-cTnT assay performed well in the initial diagnosis of AMI. The accelerated strategy was also effective when incorporated into a comprehensive strategy of risk stratification that included clinical and demographic factors. The time saved by this approach could have a major impact on health service delivery. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12610000053022.

Effects of moist cold stratification on germination, plant growth regulators, metabolites and embryo ultrastructure in seeds of Acer morrisonense (Sapindaceae).

PubMed

Chen, Shun-Ying; Chou, Shih-Han; Tsai, Ching-Chu; Hsu, Wen-Yu; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Chien, Ching-Te; Kuo-Huang, Ling-Long

2015-09-01

Breaking of seed dormancy by moist cold stratification involves complex interactions in cells. To assess the effect of moist cold stratification on dormancy break in seeds of Acer morrisonense, we monitored percentages and rates of germination and changes in plant growth regulators, sugars, amino acids and embryo ultrastructure after various periods of cold stratification. Fresh seeds incubated at 25/15 °C for 24 weeks germinated to 61%, while those cold stratified at 5 °C for 12 weeks germinated to 87% in 1 week. Neither exogenous GA3 nor GA4 pretreatment significantly increased final seed germination percentage. Total ABA content of seeds cold stratified for 12 weeks was reduced about 3.3-fold, to a concentration similar to that in germinated seeds (radicle emergence). Endogenous GA3 and GA7 were detected in 8-week and 12-week cold stratified seeds but not in fresh seeds. Numerous protein and lipid bodies were present in the plumule, first true leaves and cotyledons of fresh seeds. Protein and lipid bodies decreased greatly during cold stratification, and concentrations of total soluble sugars and amino acids increased. The major non-polar sugars in fresh seeds were sucrose and fructose, but sucrose increased and fructose decreased significantly during cold stratification. The major free amino acids were proline and tryptophan in fresh seeds, and proline increased and tryptophan decreased during cold stratification. Thus, as dormancy break occurs during cold stratification seeds of A. morrisonense undergo changes in plant growth regulators, proteins, lipids, sugars, amino acids and cell ultrastructure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Physical Therapists' Ability to Identify Psychological Factors and Their Self-Reported Competence to Manage Chronic Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Brunner, Emanuel; Dankaerts, Wim; Meichtry, André; O'Sullivan, Kieran; Probst, Michel

2018-06-01

In the management of chronic low back pain (LBP), identifying and managing more patients who are at high risk and who have psychological barriers to recovery is important yet difficult. The objective of this study was to test physical therapists' ability to allocate patients into risk stratification groups, test correlations between therapists' assessments of psychological factors and patient questionnaires, and explore relationships between psychological factors and therapists' self-reported competence to manage patients with chronic LBP. This was a pragmatic, observational study. Patients completed the STarT Back Tool (SBT, for risk stratification), the Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (distress, depression, anxiety), and the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (kinesiophobia) prior to the intake session. After this session, physical therapists estimated patient prognostic risk using the 3 SBT categories and rated patient psychological factors using a 0-to-10 scale. Finally, therapists reported their self-reported competence to manage the patient. Intraclass and Spearman rank correlations tested correlations between therapists' intuitive assessments and patient questionnaires. A linear-mixed model explored relationships between psychological factors and therapists' self-reported competence. Forty-nine patients were managed by 20 therapists. Therapists accurately estimated SBT risk allocation in only 41% of patients. Correlations between therapist perceptions and patient questionnaires were moderate for distress (r = 0.602) and fair for depression (r = 0.304) and anxiety (r = 0.327). There was no correlation for kinesiophobia (r = -0.007). Patient distress was identified as a negative predictor of therapists' self-reported competence. This was a cross-sectional study, conducted in only 1 center. Physical therapists were not very accurate at allocating patients into risk stratification groups or identifying psychological factors. Therapists' self-reported competence in managing patients was lowest when patients reported higher distress.

Minimally invasive and endoscopic versus open necrosectomy for necrotising pancreatitis: a pooled analysis of individual data for 1980 patients.

PubMed

van Brunschot, Sandra; Hollemans, Robbert A; Bakker, Olaf J; Besselink, Marc G; Baron, Todd H; Beger, Hans G; Boermeester, Marja A; Bollen, Thomas L; Bruno, Marco J; Carter, Ross; French, Jeremy J; Coelho, Djalma; Dahl, Björn; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G; Doctor, Nilesh; Fagenholz, Peter J; Farkas, Gyula; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez Del; Fockens, Paul; Freeman, Martin L; Gardner, Timothy B; Goor, Harry van; Gooszen, Hein G; Hannink, Gerjon; Lochan, Rajiv; McKay, Colin J; Neoptolemos, John P; Oláh, Atilla; Parks, Rowan W; Peev, Miroslav P; Raraty, Michael; Rau, Bettina; Rösch, Thomas; Rovers, Maroeska; Seifert, Hans; Siriwardena, Ajith K; Horvath, Karen D; van Santvoort, Hjalmar C

2018-04-01

Minimally invasive surgical necrosectomy and endoscopic necrosectomy, compared with open necrosectomy, might improve outcomes in necrotising pancreatitis, especially in critically ill patients. Evidence from large comparative studies is lacking. We combined original and newly collected data from 15 published and unpublished patient cohorts (51 hospitals; 8 countries) on pancreatic necrosectomy for necrotising pancreatitis. Death rates were compared in patients undergoing open necrosectomy versus minimally invasive surgical or endoscopic necrosectomy. To adjust for confounding and to study effect modification by clinical severity, we performed two types of analyses: logistic multivariable regression and propensity score matching with stratification according to predicted risk of death at baseline (low: <5%; intermediate: ≥5% to <15%; high: ≥15% to <35%; and very high: ≥35%). Among 1980 patients with necrotising pancreatitis, 1167 underwent open necrosectomy and 813 underwent minimally invasive surgical (n=467) or endoscopic (n=346) necrosectomy. There was a lower risk of death for minimally invasive surgical necrosectomy (OR, 0.53; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.84; p=0.006) and endoscopic necrosectomy (OR, 0.20; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.63; p=0.006). After propensity score matching with risk stratification, minimally invasive surgical necrosectomy remained associated with a lower risk of death than open necrosectomy in the very high-risk group (42/111 vs 59/111; risk ratio, 0.70; 95% CI 0.52 to 0.95; p=0.02). Endoscopic necrosectomy was associated with a lower risk of death than open necrosectomy in the high-risk group (3/40 vs 12/40; risk ratio, 0.27; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.88; p=0.03) and in the very high-risk group (12/57 vs 28/57; risk ratio, 0.43; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.77; p=0.005). In high-risk patients with necrotising pancreatitis, minimally invasive surgical and endoscopic necrosectomy are associated with reduced death rates compared with open necrosectomy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Cardiac stress test as a risk-stratification tool for posttransplant cardiac outcomes in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Singh, Neeraj; Parikh, Samir; Bhatt, Udayan; Vonvisger, Jon; Nori, Uday; Hasan, Ayesha; Samavedi, Srinivas; Andreoni, Kenneth; Henry, Mitchell; Pelletier, Ronald; Rajab, Amer; Elkhammas, Elmahdi; Pesavento, Todd

2012-12-27

The utility of cardiac stress testing as a risk-stratification tool before kidney transplantation remains debatable owing to discordance with coronary angiography and outcome yields at different centers. We conducted a retrospective study of 273 diabetic kidney transplant recipients from 2006 to 2010. By protocol, all diabetic patients underwent pharmacological radionucleotide stress test or dobutamine stress echocardiography before transplant. We compared the 1-year cardiac outcomes between those with negative stress test results and those with positive stress test results. Patients with a positive stress test result (n=67) underwent coronary angiogram, and significant coronary artery disease (≥70% coronary stenosis) was found in 35 (52.2%) patients. Of the latter, 32 (91.4%) underwent cardiac revascularization (24 underwent cardiac stenting and 8 underwent coronary artery bypass grafting). The rest (n=35) were treated medically. Within 1 year after transplant, the group with positive stress test results experienced more cardiac events (34.3% vs. 3.9%, P<0.001) including acute myocardial infarction (22.4% vs. 3.4%, P<0.001) and ventricular arrhythmias (8.9% vs. 0.05%, P=0.001), higher all-cause mortality (19.4% vs. 4.8%, P<0.001), and cardiac mortality (17.9% vs. 0.9%, P<0.001) compared with the group with negative stress test results. In this diabetic population, stress testing showed positive and negative predictive values of 34.3% and 96.1%, respectively. Pharmacological cardiac stress testing provided excellent risk stratification in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

Standardized reporting guidelines for emergency department syncope risk-stratification research.

PubMed

Sun, Benjamin C; Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Cruz, Jeffrey Dela

2012-06-01

There is increasing research interest in the risk stratification of emergency department (ED) syncope patients. A major barrier to comparing and synthesizing existing research is wide variation in the conduct and reporting of studies. The authors wanted to create standardized reporting guidelines for ED syncope risk-stratification research using an expert consensus process. In that pursuit, a panel of syncope researchers was convened and a literature review was performed to identify candidate reporting guideline elements. Candidate elements were grouped into four sections: eligibility criteria, outcomes, electrocardiogram (ECG) findings, and predictors. A two-round, modified Delphi consensus process was conducted using an Internet-based survey application. In the first round, candidate elements were rated on a five-point Likert scale. In the second round, panelists rerated items after receiving information about group ratings from the first round. Items that were rated by >80% of the panelists at the two highest levels of the Likert scale were included in the final guidelines. There were 24 panelists from eight countries who represented five clinical specialties. The panel identified an initial set of 183 candidate elements. After two survey rounds, the final reporting guidelines included 92 items that achieved >80% consensus. These included 10 items for study eligibility, 23 items for outcomes, nine items for ECG abnormalities, and 50 items for candidate predictors. Adherence to these guidelines should facilitate comparison of future research in this area. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Multislice computed tomography coronary angiography for risk stratification in patients with an intermediate pretest likelihood.

PubMed

van Werkhoven, J M; Gaemperli, O; Schuijf, J D; Jukema, J W; Kroft, L J; Leschka, S; Alkadhi, H; Valenta, I; Pundziute, G; de Roos, A; van der Wall, E E; Kaufmann, P A; Bax, J J

2009-10-01

To assess whether multislice computed tomography coronary angiography (MSCTA) may be useful for risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) at intermediate pretest likelihood according to Diamond and Forrester. MSCTA images were evaluated for the presence of significant CAD in 316 patients with suspected CAD (60% male, average (SD) age 57 (11) years) and an intermediate pretest likelihood according to Diamond and Forrester. Patients were followed up to determine the occurrence of an event. A combined end point of all-cause mortality, non-fatal infarction and unstable angina requiring revascularisation. Significant CAD was seen in 89 patients (28%), whereas normal MSCTA or non-significant CAD was seen in the remaining 227 (72%) patients. During follow-up (median 621 days (25-75th centile 408-835) an event occurred in 13 patients (4.8%). The annualised event rate was 0.8% in patients with normal MSCT, 2.2% in patients with non-significant CAD and 6.5% in patients with significant CAD. Moreover, MSCTA remained a significant predictor (p<0.05) of events after multivariate correction (hazard ratio = 3.460 (95% CI 1.142 to 10.480). The results suggest that in patients with an intermediate pretest likelihood, MSCTA is highly effective in re-stratifying patients into either a low or high post-test risk group. These results further emphasise the usefulness of non-invasive imaging with MSCTA in this patient population.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Risk Stratification of Patients With Renal Impairment Presenting With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome

PubMed Central

Miller-Hodges, Eve; Anand, Atul; Shah, Anoop S.V.; Chapman, Andrew R.; Gallacher, Peter; Lee, Kuan Ken; Farrah, Tariq; Halbesma, Nynke; Blackmur, James P.; Newby, David E.; Mills, Nicholas L.

2018-01-01

Background: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing may improve the risk stratification and diagnosis of myocardial infarction, but concentrations can be challenging to interpret in patients with renal impairment, and the effectiveness of testing in this group is uncertain. Methods: In a prospective multicenter study of consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, we evaluated the performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I in those with and without renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60mL/min/1.73m2). The negative predictive value and sensitivity of troponin concentrations below the risk stratification threshold (5 ng/L) at presentation were reported for a primary outcome of index type 1 myocardial infarction, or type 1 myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. The positive predictive value and specificity at the 99th centile diagnostic threshold (16 ng/L in women, 34 ng/L in men) was determined for index type 1 myocardial infarction. Subsequent type 1 myocardial infarction and cardiac death were reported at 1 year. Results: Of 4726 patients identified, 904 (19%) had renal impairment. Troponin concentrations <5 ng/L at presentation identified 17% of patients with renal impairment as low risk for the primary outcome (negative predictive value, 98.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 96.0%–99.7%; sensitivity 98.9%; 95%CI, 97.5%–99.9%), in comparison with 56% without renal impairment (P<0.001) with similar performance (negative predictive value, 99.7%; 95% CI, 99.4%–99.9%; sensitivity 98.4%; 95% CI, 97.2%–99.4%). The positive predictive value and specificity at the 99th centile were lower in patients with renal impairment at 50.0% (95% CI, 45.2%–54.8%) and 70.9% (95% CI, 67.5%–74.2%), respectively, in comparison with 62.4% (95% CI, 58.8%–65.9%) and 92.1% (95% CI, 91.2%–93.0%) in those without. At 1 year, patients with troponin concentrations >99th centile and renal impairment were at greater risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death than those with normal renal function (24% versus 10%; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.54–3.11). Conclusions: In suspected acute coronary syndrome, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin identified fewer patients with renal impairment as low risk and more as high risk, but with lower specificity for type 1 myocardial infarction. Irrespective of diagnosis, patients with renal impairment and elevated cardiac troponin concentrations had a 2-fold greater risk of a major cardiac event than those with normal renal function, and should be considered for further investigation and treatment. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01852123. PMID:28978551

Predicting Geriatric Falls Following an Episode of Emergency Department Care: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Christopher R.; Avidan, Michael S.; Wildes, Tanya; Stark, Susan; Fowler, Susan A.; Lo, Alexander X.

2015-01-01

Background Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored. Objectives This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor’s accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity. Methods A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED. Results A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%. Conclusions This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk PMID:25293956

Predicting geriatric falls following an episode of emergency department care: a systematic review.

PubMed

Carpenter, Christopher R; Avidan, Michael S; Wildes, Tanya; Stark, Susan; Fowler, Susan A; Lo, Alexander X

2014-10-01

Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored. This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor's accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED. A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%. This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk. © 2014 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

The Effect of an Isogrid on Cryogenic Propellant Behavior and Thermal Stratification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliveira, Justin; Kirk, Daniel R.; Chintalapati, Sunil; Schallhorn, Paul A.; Piquero, Jorge L.; Campbell, Mike; Chase, Sukhdeep

2007-01-01

All models for thermal stratification available in the presentation are derived using smooth, flat plate laminar and turbulent boundary layer models. This study examines the effect of isogrid (roughness elements) on the surface of internal tank walls to mimic the effects of weight-saving isogrid, which is located on the inside of many rocket propellant tanks. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to study the momentum and thermal boundary layer thickness for free convection flows over a wall with generic roughness elements. This presentation makes no mention of actual isogrid sizes or of any specific tank geometry. The magnitude of thermal stratification is compared for smooth and isogrid-lined walls.

Effect of stable stratification on dispersion within urban street canyons: A large-eddy simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xian-Xiang; Britter, Rex; Norford, Leslie K.

2016-11-01

This study employs a validated large-eddy simulation (LES) code with high tempo-spatial resolution to investigate the effect of a stably stratified roughness sublayer (RSL) on scalar transport within an urban street canyon. The major effect of stable stratification on the flow and turbulence inside the street canyon is that the flow slows down in both streamwise and vertical directions, a stagnant area near the street level emerges, and the vertical transport of momentum is weakened. Consequently, the transfer of heat between the street canyon and overlying atmosphere also gets weaker. The pollutant emitted from the street level 'pools' within the lower street canyon, and more pollutant accumulates within the street canyon with increasing stability. Under stable stratification, the dominant mechanism for pollutant transport within the street canyon has changed from ejections (flow carries high-concentration pollutant upward) to unorganized motions (flow carries high-concentration pollutant downward), which is responsible for the much lower dispersion efficiency under stable stratifications.

Change and Stability in Educational Stratification.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mare, Robert D.

1981-01-01

Using statistical models, discusses educational stratification with respect to socioeconomic origins. Describes the effects of social background on grade progression change across cohorts born during the 20th century and the consequences of these changes. (JW)

Therapeutic Decisions in Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity and Physicians' Risk Preferences.

PubMed

Sposato, Luciano A; Stirling, Devin; Saposnik, Gustavo

2018-04-09

Knowledge-to-action gaps influence therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF). Physician-related factors are common, but the least studied. We evaluated the prevalence and determinants of physician-related factors and knowledge-to-action gaps among physicians involved in the management of AF patients. In this cross-sectional study, participants from 6 South American countries recruited during an educational program answered questions regarding 16 case scenarios of patients with AF and completed experiments assessing 3 outcome measures: therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification knowledge translated into action (ERSKTA) based on commonly used stratification tools (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years (double), Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (double), Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, and female gender (score of 0 for males and 1 for female) (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, and previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack (double) (CHADS 2 )). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with the outcomes. Overall, 149 physicians were invited to participate, of which 88 (59.1%) completed the online assessment tool. Cardiology was the most frequent specialty (69.3%). Therapeutic inertia was present in 53 participants (60.2%), herding in 66 (75.0%), and ERSKTA in 46 (52.3%). Therapeutic inertia was inversely associated with willingness to take financial risks (odds ratio [OR] .72, 95% confidence interval [CI] .59-.89 per point in the financial risk propensity score), herding was associated with aversion to ambiguity in the medical domain (OR 5.35, 95% CI 1.40-20.46), and ERSKTA was associated with the willingness to take risks (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.15-2.50, per point in score). Among physicians involved in stroke prevention in AF, individual risk preferences and aversion to ambiguity lead to therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification and subsequent use of oral anticoagulants. Educational interventions, including formal training in risk management and decision-making are needed. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring Density Stratification and Understanding its Impact on Sediment Transport in Fine-grained Rivers, Based on Observations from the Lower Yellow River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moodie, A. J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Ma, H.; Lamb, M. P.; Carlson, B.; Kineke, G. C.; Parker, G.

2017-12-01

High concentrations of suspended sediment in channelized fluid flow produces density stratification that can alter the turbulent flow structure, thus limiting fluid momentum redistribution and affecting sediment transport capacity. A low channel-bed slope and large flow depth are hypothesized to be additional important factors contributing to density stratification. However, there are limited observations of density stratification in large rivers, especially those that carry significant fluxes of mud, and so the conditions leading to the development of density stratification are poorly constrained. The Yellow River, China, is a fine-grained and low-sloping river that maintains some of the highest suspended sediment concentrations in large rivers worldwide, making it an ideal natural laboratory for studying density stratification and its impact on sediment transport. Suspended sediment samples from the lower Yellow River, collected over a range of discharge conditions, produced sediment concentration profiles that are used in conjunction with velocity profiles to determine the threshold shear velocity for density stratification effects to develop. Comparing measured and predicted concentration and velocity profiles demonstrates that, there is no significant density stratification for base flow conditions; however, above a shear velocity value of 0.05 m/s, there is a progressive offset between the measured and predicted profiles, indicating that density stratification is increasingly important with higher shear stress values. The analyses further indicate that sediment entrainment from the bed and sediment diffusivity within the water column are significantly impacted by density stratification, suggesting that shear stress and sediment transport rates are inhibited by the development of density stratification. Near-bed concentration measurements are used to assess a stress-to-entrainment relationship, accounting for density stratification. These measurements are being used to refine relations for sediment entrainment and sediment flux in sandy and muddy, lowland rivers and deltas.

Efficacy of risk stratification in tailoring immunosuppression regimens in kidney transplant patients at the national kidney and transplant institute.

PubMed

Ledesma-Gumba, M A; Danguilan, R A; Casasola, C C; Ona, E T

2008-09-01

To evaluate the efficacy of tailored immunosuppressive regimens prescribed according to a risk stratification scoring system based on the number of HLA mismatches, donor source, panel-reactive antibodies (PRA), and repeat transplant. Patients in a retrospective cohort of 329 kidney transplantations performed from October 2004 to December 2005 were assigned scores of 0, 2, 4, or 6 with higher scores for > or =1 HLA mismatches, PRA > 10%, repeat transplant, and unrelated or deceased donor. Added scores of < or =4 comprised the low-risk group who received a Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI)-based regimen without induction, whereas a score > or = 6 denoted high risk including a CNI-based regimen with an interleukin-2 receptor antibody. The efficacy analysis compared the incidences of biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes (BPAR) at 1 year. Only 227 (69%) of 329 patients had a complete data set and 84 were excluded because they did not follow the prescribed protocol, yielding 113 low- and 30 high-risk patients in the final population. Low-risk patients had a mean PRA of 5.4%, living related donors in 68%, and primary transplants. High-risk patients had a mean PRA of 18.8% (range = 10%-97%), living nonrelated donors in 84%, four deceased donors, and four repeat transplants. The overall 1-year incidence of BPAR was 5.7%. No significant difference (P = .081) was observed in 1-year BPAR between the low- (4.5%) and high-risk (9.8%) groups. Likewise, no significant difference in the 1-year mean serum creatinine was observed according to the CNI. The mean creatinine was 1.12 for cyclosporine and 1.38 for tacrolimus treatment (P = .06) in the low-risk group and 1.08 for cyclosporine and 1.2 for tacrolimus (P = .61) in the high-risk cohort. There was no significant difference in acute rejection rates between the immunologically low- or high-risk patients using tailored immunosuppression, which was effective to minimize its occurrence with good renal function at 1 year.

Proposal for a new risk stratification classification for meningioma based on patient age, WHO tumor grade, size, localization, and karyotype

PubMed Central

Domingues, Patrícia Henriques; Sousa, Pablo; Otero, Álvaro; Gonçalves, Jesus Maria; Ruiz, Laura; de Oliveira, Catarina; Lopes, Maria Celeste; Orfao, Alberto; Tabernero, Maria Dolores

2014-01-01

Background Tumor recurrence remains the major clinical complication of meningiomas, the majority of recurrences occurring among WHO grade I/benign tumors. In the present study, we propose a new scoring system for the prognostic stratification of meningioma patients based on analysis of a large series of meningiomas followed for a median of >5 years. Methods Tumor cytogenetics were systematically investigated by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization in 302 meningioma samples, and the proposed classification was further validated in an independent series of cases (n = 132) analyzed by high-density (500K) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Results Overall, we found an adverse impact on patient relapse-free survival (RFS) for males, presence of brain edema, younger patients (<55 years), tumor size >50 mm, tumor localization at intraventricular and anterior cranial base areas, WHO grade II/III meningiomas, and complex karyotypes; the latter 5 variables showed an independent predictive value in multivariate analysis. Based on these parameters, a prognostic score was established for each individual case, and patients were stratified into 4 risk categories with significantly different (P < .001) outcomes. These included a good prognosis group, consisting of approximately 20% of cases, that showed a RFS of 100% ± 0% at 10 years and a very poor-prognosis group with a RFS rate of 0% ± 0% at 10 years. The prognostic impact of the scoring system proposed here was also retained when WHO grade I cases were considered separately (P < .001). Conclusions Based on this risk-stratification classification, different strategies may be adopted for follow-up, and eventually also for treatment, of meningioma patients at different risks for relapse. PMID:24536048

CD200/BTLA deletions in pediatric precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the EORTC-CLG 58951 protocol

PubMed Central

Ghazavi, Farzaneh; Clappier, Emmanuelle; Lammens, Tim; Suciu, Stefan; Caye, Aurélie; Zegrari, Samira; Bakkus, Marleen; Grardel, Nathalie; Benoit, Yves; Bertrand, Yves; Minckes, Odile; Costa, Vitor; Ferster, Alina; Mazingue, Françoise; Plat, Geneviève; Plouvier, Emmanuel; Poirée, Marilyne; Uyttebroeck, Anne; van der Werff-ten Bosch, Jutte; Yakouben, Karima; Helsmoortel, Hetty; Meul, Magali; Van Roy, Nadine; Philippé, Jan; Speleman, Frank; Cavé, Hélène; Van Vlierberghe, Pieter; De Moerloose, Barbara

2015-01-01

DNA copy number analysis has been instrumental for the identification of genetic alterations in B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Notably, some of these genetic defects have been associated with poor treatment outcome and might be relevant for future risk stratification. In this study, we characterized recurrent deletions of CD200 and BTLA genes, mediated by recombination-activating genes, and used breakpoint-specific polymerase chain reaction assay to screen a cohort of 1154 cases of B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia uniformly treated according to the EORTC-CLG 58951 protocol. CD200/BTLA deletions were identified in 56 of the patients (4.8%) and were associated with an inferior 8-year event free survival in this treatment protocol [70.2% ± 1.2% for patients with deletions versus 83.5% ± 6.4% for non-deleted cases (hazard ratio 2.02; 95% confidence interval 1.23–3.32; P=0.005)]. Genetically, CD200/BTLA deletions were strongly associated with ETV6-RUNX1-positive leukemias (P<0.0001), but were also identified in patients who did not have any genetic abnormality that is currently used for risk stratification. Within the latter population of patients, the presence of CD200/BTLA deletions was associated with inferior event-free survival and overall survival. Moreover, the multivariate Cox model indicated that these deletions had independent prognostic impact on event-free survival when adjusting for conventional risk criteria. All together, these findings further underscore the rationale for copy number profiling as an important tool for risk stratification in human B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov as #NCT00003728. PMID:26137961

CD200/BTLA deletions in pediatric precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the EORTC-CLG 58951 protocol.

PubMed

Ghazavi, Farzaneh; Clappier, Emmanuelle; Lammens, Tim; Suciu, Stefan; Caye, Aurélie; Zegrari, Samira; Bakkus, Marleen; Grardel, Nathalie; Benoit, Yves; Bertrand, Yves; Minckes, Odile; Costa, Vitor; Ferster, Alina; Mazingue, Françoise; Plat, Geneviève; Plouvier, Emmanuel; Poirée, Marilyne; Uyttebroeck, Anne; van der Werff-Ten Bosch, Jutte; Yakouben, Karima; Helsmoortel, Hetty; Meul, Magali; Van Roy, Nadine; Philippé, Jan; Speleman, Frank; Cavé, Hélène; Van Vlierberghe, Pieter; De Moerloose, Barbara

2015-10-01

DNA copy number analysis has been instrumental for the identification of genetic alterations in B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Notably, some of these genetic defects have been associated with poor treatment outcome and might be relevant for future risk stratification. In this study, we characterized recurrent deletions of CD200 and BTLA genes, mediated by recombination-activating genes, and used breakpoint-specific polymerase chain reaction assay to screen a cohort of 1154 cases of B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia uniformly treated according to the EORTC-CLG 58951 protocol. CD200/BTLA deletions were identified in 56 of the patients (4.8%) and were associated with an inferior 8-year event free survival in this treatment protocol [70.2% ± 1.2% for patients with deletions versus 83.5% ± 6.4% for non-deleted cases (hazard ratio 2.02; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.32; P=0.005)]. Genetically, CD200/BTLA deletions were strongly associated with ETV6-RUNX1-positive leukemias (P<0.0001), but were also identified in patients who did not have any genetic abnormality that is currently used for risk stratification. Within the latter population of patients, the presence of CD200/BTLA deletions was associated with inferior event-free survival and overall survival. Moreover, the multivariate Cox model indicated that these deletions had independent prognostic impact on event-free survival when adjusting for conventional risk criteria. All together, these findings further underscore the rationale for copy number profiling as an important tool for risk stratification in human B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov as #NCT00003728. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

The risk stratification and prognostic evaluation of soluble programmed death-1 on patients with sepsis in emergency department.

PubMed

Zhao, Yongzhen; Jia, Yumei; Li, Chunsheng; Fang, Yingying; Shao, Rui

2018-01-01

To evaluate the efficacy of soluble programmed death-1 (sPD-1) for risk stratification and prediction of 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis, we compared serum sPD-1 with procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score. A total of 60 healthy volunteers and 595 emergency department (ED) patients were recruited for this prospective cohort study. According to the severity of their condition on ED arrival, the patients were allocated to the systemic inflammatory response syndrome group (130 cases), sepsis group (276 cases), severe sepsis group (121 cases), and septic shock group (68 cases). In addition, all patients with sepsis were also divided into the survivor group (349 cases) and nonsurvivor group (116 cases) according to the 28-day outcomes. When the severity of sepsis increased, the levels of sPD-1 gradually increased. The levels of sPD-1, PCT, CRP and the MEDS score were also higher in the nonsurvivor group compared to the survivor group. Logistic regression suggested that sPD-1, PCT, and the MEDS score were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis. Area under the curve (AUC) of sPD-1, PCT and the MEDS score for 28-day mortality was 0.725, 0.693, and 0.767, respectively, and the AUC was improved when all 3 factors were combined (0.843). Serum sPD-1 is positively correlated with the severity of sepsis, and it is valuable for risk stratification of patients and prediction of 28-day mortality. Combining sPD-1 with PCT and the MEDS score improves the prognostic evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Value of the Definition of Severe Familial Hypercholesterolemia for Stratification of Heterozygous Patients.

PubMed

Pérez-Calahorra, Sofia; Sánchez-Hernández, Rosa María; Plana, Núria; Marco-Benedi, Victoria; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Almagro, Fátima; Brea, Angel; Ascaso, Juan Francisco; Lahoz, Carlos; Civeira, Fernando

2017-03-01

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is characterized by high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol with co-dominant transmission and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), although with high variability among subjects. Currently, CVD stratification tools for heterozygous FH (HeFH) are not available. A definition of severe HeFH has been recently proposed by the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), but it has not been validated. Our study aims to see clinical characteristics and prevalence of CVD in subjects defined as severe HeFH by IAS criteria. Probable or definite HeFH introduced in the Dyslipidemia Registry of Spanish Arteriosclerosis Society were analyzed by the IAS criteria. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to assess the association of CVD with the IAS criteria. About 1,732 HeFH cases were analyzed. Severe HeFH had higher prevalence of familial history of CVD, personal history of tendon xanthomas, LDL cholesterol, and CVD than nonsevere HeFH. A total of 656 (77.1%) and 441 (50.1%) of men and women, respectively, fulfilled the IAS criteria of severe HeFH. In the univariate analysis, subjects defined as severe HeFH showed odds ratio 3.016 (95% CI 3.136 to 4.257, p <0.001) for CVD. However, when traditional risk factors were included in the multivariate analysis, only the presence of cholesterol >400 mg/dl had a statistically significant association with CVD odds ratio 8.76 (95% CI 3.90 to 19.69, p <0.001). In conclusion, the IAS definition of severe HeFH is not significantly associated with CVD when adjusted for classic risk factors. Risk stratification in HeFH is an important issue, but the proposed criteria do not seem to solve this problem. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Doppler Endoscopic Probe Monitoring of Blood Flow Improves Risk Stratification and Outcomes of Patients With Severe Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Jensen, Dennis M; Kovacs, Thomas O G; Ohning, Gordon V; Ghassemi, Kevin; Machicado, Gustavo A; Dulai, Gareth S; Sedarat, Alireza; Jutabha, Rome; Gornbein, Jeffrey

2017-05-01

For 4 decades, stigmata of recent hemorrhage in patients with nonvariceal lesions have been used for risk stratification and endoscopic hemostasis. The arterial blood flow that underlies the stigmata rarely is monitored, but can be used to determine risk for rebleeding. We performed a randomized controlled trial to determine whether Doppler endoscopic probe monitoring of blood flow improves risk stratification and outcomes in patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. In a single-blind study performed at 2 referral centers we assigned 148 patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (125 with ulcers, 19 with Dieulafoy's lesions, and 4 with Mallory Weiss tears) to groups that underwent standard, visually guided endoscopic hemostasis (control, n = 76), or endoscopic hemostasis assisted by Doppler monitoring of blood flow under the stigmata (n = 72). The primary outcome was the rate of rebleeding after 30 days; secondary outcomes were complications, death, and need for transfusions, surgery, or angiography. There was a significant difference in the rates of lesion rebleeding within 30 days of endoscopic hemostasis in the control group (26.3%) vs the Doppler group (11.1%) (P = .0214). The odds ratio for rebleeding with Doppler monitoring was 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.143-0.8565) and the number needed to treat was 7. In a randomized controlled trial of patients with severe upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage from ulcers or other lesions, Doppler probe guided endoscopic hemostasis significantly reduced 30-day rates of rebleeding compared with standard, visually guided hemostasis. Guidelines for nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding should incorporate these results. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00732212 (CLIN-013-07F). Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The new dyslipidemia guidelines: what is the debate?

PubMed

Anderson, Todd J; Mancini, G B John; Genest, Jacques; Grégoire, Jean; Lonn, Eva M; Hegele, Robert A

2015-05-01

Dyslipidemia is a major risk factor for the development of atherosclerotic disease. Therefore, lifestyle interventions and pharmacological approaches to decrease cholesterol are widely used in cardiovascular disease prevention. The introduction and widespread use of 3-hydroxy-3 methylglutaryl coenzyme A inhibitors (statins) for individuals at risk of atherosclerotic disease has been an important advance in cardiovascular care. There can be no doubt that better control of dyslipidemia, even in subjects whose low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level is not particularly high, has reduced overall event rates. On a background of lifestyle interventions, statins are routinely used to decrease risk along with aspirin and interventions to control hypertension and diabetes. More than other risk factors, the approach to the identification and treatment of dyslipidemia has been heterogeneous and widely debated. The recent release of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association dyslipidemia guidelines has reignited the controversy over the best approach for risk stratification and treatment. In this article we review the importance of statin therapy for global cardiovascular risk reduction, compare the Canadian Cardiovascular Society dyslipidemia guidelines with other standards, and discuss the points of debate. Despite the seeming variety of recommendations, their common link is a systematic approach to risk stratification and treatment, which will continue to benefit our patients at risk. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical solution of chemically reactive non-Newtonian fluid flow: Dual stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehman, Khalil Ur; Malik, M. Y.; Khan, Abid Ali; Zehra, Iffat; Zahri, Mostafa; Tahir, M.

2017-12-01

We have found that only a few attempts are available in the literature relatively to the tangent hyperbolic fluid flow induced by stretching cylindrical surfaces. In particular, temperature and concentration stratification effects have not been investigated until now with respect to the tangent hyperbolic fluid model. Therefore, we have considered the tangent hyperbolic fluid flow induced by an acutely inclined cylindrical surface in the presence of both temperature and concentration stratification effects. To be more specific, the fluid flow is attained with the no slip condition, which implies that the bulk motion of the fluid particles is the same as the stretching velocity of a cylindrical surface. Additionally, the flow field situation is manifested with heat generation, mixed convection and chemical reaction effects. The flow partial differential equations give a complete description of the present problem. Therefore, to trace out the solution, a set of suitable transformations is introduced to convert these equations into ordinary differential equations. In addition, a self-coded computational algorithm is executed to inspect the numerical solution of these reduced equations. The effect logs of the involved parameters are provided graphically. Furthermore, the variations of the physical quantities are examined and given with the aid of tables. It is observed that the fluid temperature is a decreasing function of the thermal stratification parameter and a similar trend is noticed for the concentration via the solutal stratification parameter.

Public health implications from COGS and potential for risk stratification and screening.

PubMed

Burton, Hilary; Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Pashayan, Nora; Pharoah, Paul

2013-04-01

The PHG Foundation led a multidisciplinary program, which used results from COGS research identifying genetic variants associated with breast, ovarian and prostate cancers to model risk-stratified prevention for breast and prostate cancers. Implementing such strategies would require attention to the use and storage of genetic information, the development of risk assessment tools, new protocols for consent and programs of professional education and public engagement.

Advances in management of low-risk febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Teuffel, Oliver; Sung, Lillian

2012-02-01

To describe and discuss the most recent advances in the management of low-risk febrile neutropenia in children with cancer. Several risk stratification tools for children with febrile neutropenia have been developed, although none of these tools have been directly compared and few have been validated in independent populations. However, there is good evidence that, for pediatric patients with febrile neutropenia at low risk for severe infection, outpatient management is a well tolerated and efficacious alternative to inpatient care. Moreover, major progress has been made in obtaining and understanding perceived quality of life and preferences for outpatient management in pediatric cancer patients. Many parents prefer inpatient management although child quality of life is, in general, anticipated to be higher with outpatient intravenous therapy. Finally, outpatient strategies are more cost-effective as compared with traditional management in hospital. Outpatient management is a well tolerated and cost-effective strategy for low-risk febrile neutropenia in children with cancer, although parental preferences are highly variable for outpatient versus inpatient management. Future research should examine the effectiveness of outpatient strategies through conduct of large cohort studies. Other future work could focus on development of decision aids and other tools to facilitate ambulatory approaches.

Decomposing Inequalities in Performance Scores: The Role of Student Background, Peer Effects and School Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mostafa, Tarek

2010-01-01

This paper analyses the mechanisms of stratification and inequalities in educational achievements. The main objective is to determine how stratification leads to unequal educational outcomes and how inequalities are channelled through student characteristics, school characteristics and peer effects. This analysis is undertaken in five countries…

A Nationwide Epidemiologic Modeling Study of LD: Risk, Protection, and Unintended Impact

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDermott, Paul A.; Goldberg, Michelle M.; Watkins, Marley W.; Stanley, Jeanne L.; Glutting, Joseph J.

2006-01-01

Through multiple logistic regression modeling, this article explores the relative importance of risk and protective factors associated with learning disabilities (LD). A representative national sample of 6- to 17-year-old students (N = 1,268) was drawn by random stratification and classified by the presence versus absence of LD in reading,…

M2 tidal effects in greater cook strait, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibblewhite, Alick C.; Ash, David E.

1980-05-01

The application of a M2 nonlinear numerical tidal model to the shelf seas of central New Zealand (~38.500 km2 area) is described. It has provided a preliminary assessment of tidal and residual currents, bottom stress, energy dissipation, and the stratification index. The existence of a permanent, tidally driven mesoscale eddy (~75 km diameter) is predicted nort of D'Urville Island. Large spatial gradients in bottom stress qualitatively agree with many features of the surficial sediment distribution. A comparison of all available bulk stratification data with the h/u3 stratification index clearly demonstrates the dominance of tidal versus wind mixing over the control of summer stratification. A potential application of the model to fisheries science is suggested through a comparison of the stratification index contour map and some observations of squid fishing vessel locations.

M 2 tidal effects in greater Cook Strait, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, Malcolm J.; Kibblewhite, Alick C.; Ash, David E.

1980-05-01

The application of an M2 nonlinear numerical tidal model to the shelf seas of central New Zealand (˜38,500 km2 area) is described. It has provided a preliminary assessment of tidal and residual currents, bottom stress, energy dissipation, and the stratification index. The existence of a permanent, tidally driven mesoscale eddy (˜75 km diameter) is predicted north of D'Urville Island. Large spatial gradients in bottom stress qualitatively agree with many features of the surficial sediment distribution. A comparison of all available bulk stratification data with the h/u3 stratification index clearly demonstrates the dominance of tidal versus wind mixing over the control of summer stratification. A potential application of the model to fisheries science is suggested through a comparison of the stratification index contour map and some observations of squid fishing vessel locations.

Recent advances in the management of transient ischemic attacks

PubMed Central

Gomez, Camilo R.; Schneck, Michael J.; Biller, Jose

2017-01-01

Significant advances in our understanding of transient ischemic attack (TIA) have taken place since it was first recognized as a major risk factor for stroke during the late 1950's. Recently, numerous studies have consistently shown that patients who have experienced a TIA constitute a heterogeneous population, with multiple causative factors as well as an average 5–10% risk of suffering a stroke during the 30 days that follow the index event. These two attributes have driven the most important changes in the management of TIA patients over the last decade, with particular attention paid to effective stroke risk stratification, efficient and comprehensive diagnostic assessment, and a sound therapeutic approach, destined to reduce the risk of subsequent ischemic stroke. This review is an outline of these changes, including a discussion of their advantages and disadvantages, and references to how new trends are likely to influence the future care of these patients. PMID:29263784

Cardiovascular considerations in middle-aged athletes at risk for coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Reamy, Brian V; Ledford, Christopher C

2013-01-01

Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States despite a 50% decrease in deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke in the past 30 years associated with improvements in blood pressure and lipid control. The National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey found that the least prevalent metrics of cardiovascular health in adults were healthy diets, normal weights, and optimal levels of exercise. A further reduction in rates of cardiovascular disease will require an increase in exercise. Clinicians who encourage exercise in middle-aged patients face several dilemmas. This article reviews exercise-related risks for sudden death and the performance of a global cardiovascular risk assessment. The need for additional preexercise risk stratification with electrocardiogram, graded exercise testing, or echocardiography is outlined. In addition, the optimum choice of medications for hypertension or dyslipidemia treatment and the effects of these medications and aspirin on endurance exercise are reviewed.

Stratification of breast cancer risk in women with atypia: a Mayo cohort study.

PubMed

Degnim, Amy C; Visscher, Daniel W; Berman, Hal K; Frost, Marlene H; Sellers, Thomas A; Vierkant, Robert A; Maloney, Shaun D; Pankratz, V Shane; de Groen, Piet C; Lingle, Wilma L; Ghosh, Karthik; Penheiter, Lois; Tlsty, Thea; Melton, L Joseph; Reynolds, Carol A; Hartmann, Lynn C

2007-07-01

Atypical hyperplasia is a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, conveying an approximately four-fold increased risk. Data regarding long-term absolute risk and factors for risk stratification are needed. Women with atypical hyperplasia in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort were identified through pathology review. Subsequent breast cancers were identified via medical records and a questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using standardized incidence ratios, comparing the observed number of breast cancers with those expected based on Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Age, histologic factors, and family history were evaluated as risk modifiers. Plots of cumulative breast cancer incidence provided estimates of risk over time. With mean follow-up of 13.7 years, 66 breast cancers (19.9%) occurred among 331 women with atypia. RR of breast cancer with atypia was 3.88 (95% CI, 3.00 to 4.94). Marked elevations in risk were seen with multifocal atypia (eg, three or more foci with calcifications [RR, 10.35; 95% CI, 6.13 to 16.4]). RR was higher for younger women (< 45; RR, 6.76; 95% CI, 3.24 to 12.4). Risk was similar for atypical ductal and atypical lobular hyperplasia, and family history added no significant risk. Breast cancer risk remained elevated over 20 years, and the cumulative incidence approached 35% at 30 years. Among women with atypical hyperplasia, multiple foci of atypia and the presence of histologic calcifications may indicate "very high risk" status (> 50% risk at 20 years). A positive family history does not further increase risk in women with atypia.

A validation study of the 2003 American College of Cardiology/European Society of Cardiology and 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association risk stratification and treatment algorithms for sudden cardiac death in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

O'Mahony, Constantinos; Tome-Esteban, Maite; Lambiase, Pier D; Pantazis, Antonios; Dickie, Shaughan; McKenna, William J; Elliott, Perry M

2013-04-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a common mode of death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but identification of patients who are at a high risk of SCD is challenging as current risk stratification guidelines have never been formally validated. The objective of this study was to assess the power of the 2003 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and 2011 ACC Foundation (ACCF)/American Heart Association (AHA) SCD risk stratification algorithms to distinguish high risk patients who might be eligible for an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) from low risk individuals. We studied 1606 consecutively evaluated HCM patients in an observational, retrospective cohort study. Five risk factors (RF) for SCD were assessed: non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, severe left ventricular hypertrophy, family history of SCD, unexplained syncope and abnormal blood pressure response to exercise. During a follow-up period of 11 712 patient years (median 6.6 years), SCD/appropriate ICD shock occurred in 20 (3%) of 660 patients without RF (annual rate 0.45%), 31 (4.8%) of 636 patients with 1 RF (annual rate 0.65%), 27 (10.8%) of 249 patients with 2 RF (annual rate 1.3%), 7 (13.7%) of 51 patients with 3 RF (annual rate 1.9%) and 4 (40%) of 10 patients with ≥4 RF (annual rate 5.0%). The risk of SCD increased with multiple RF (2 RF: HR 2.87, p≤0.001; 3 RF: HR 4.32, p=0.001; ≥4 RF: HR 11.37, p<0.0001), but not with a single RF (HR 1.43 p=0.21). The area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (representing the probability of correctly identifying a patient at risk of SCD on the basis of RF profile) was 0.63 at 1 year and 0.64 at 5 years for the 2003 ACC/ESC algorithm and 0.61 at 1 year and 0.63 at 5 years for the 2011 ACCF/AHA algorithm. The risk of SCD increases with the aggregation of RF. The 2003 ACC/ESC and 2011 ACCF/AHA guidelines distinguish high from low risk individuals with limited power.

Effects of the Relaxation of Upwelling-Favorable Winds on the Diurnal and Semidiurnal Water Temperature Fluctuations in the Santa Barbara Channel, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aristizábal, María. F.; Fewings, Melanie R.; Washburn, Libe

2017-10-01

In the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and around the Northern Channel Islands, water temperature fluctuations in the diurnal and semidiurnal frequency bands are intermittent, with amplitudes that vary on time scales of days to weeks. The cause of this intermittency is not well understood. We studied the effects of the barotropic tide, vertical stratification, propagation of coastal-trapped waves, regional wind relaxations, and diurnal-band winds on the intermittency of the temperature fluctuations during 1992-2015. We used temperature data from 43 moorings in 10-200 m water depth and wind data from two buoys and one land station. Subtidal-frequency changes in vertical stratification explain 20-40% of the intermittency in diurnal and semidiurnal temperature fluctuations at time scales of days to weeks. Along the mainland north of Point Conception and at the Northern Channel Islands, the relaxation of upwelling-favorable winds substantially increases vertical stratification, accounting for up to 55% of the subtidal-frequency variability in stratification. As a result of the enhanced stratification, wind relaxations enhance the diurnal and semidiurnal temperature fluctuations at those sites, even though the diurnal-band wind forcing decreases during wind relaxation. A linear model where the background stratification is advected vertically explains a substantial fraction of the temperature fluctuations at most sites. The increase of vertical stratification and subsequent increase in diurnal and semidiurnal temperature fluctuations during wind relaxation is a mechanism that can supply nutrients to the euphotic zone and kelp forests in the Channel in summer when upwelling is weak.

Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

PubMed

Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

2012-01-01

To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna malaria; larval control may be considered though its role is not so far well established. In contrast, urban malaria in the Indian subcontinent is associated with higher risks than most adjacent rural areas, and larval control has a definite, though not exclusive, role. Simulation modelling of cost-effectiveness of malaria control strategies in different scenarios should prioritize ecotypes where malaria control encounters serious technical problems. Further field research on malaria and ecology should be interdisciplinary, especially with geography, and pay more attention to juxtapositions and to anthropic elements, especially migration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SBRT for the Primary Treatment of Localized Prostate Cancer: The Effect of Gleason Score, Dose and Heterogeneity of Intermediate Risk on Outcome Utilizing 2.2014 NCCN Risk Stratification Guidelines.

PubMed

Bernetich, Matthew; Oliai, Caspian; Lanciano, Rachelle; Hanlon, Alexandra; Lamond, John; Arrigo, Stephen; Yang, Jun; Good, Michael; Feng, Jing; Brown, Royce; Garber, Bruce; Mooreville, Michael; Brady, Luther W

2014-01-01

To report an update of our previous experience using stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for the primary treatment of prostate cancer, risk stratified by the updated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) version 2.2014, reporting efficacy and toxicity in a community hospital setting. From 2007 to 2012, 142 localized prostate cancer patients were treated with SBRT using CyberKnife. NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014 risk groups analyzed included very low (20%), low (23%), intermediate (35%), and high (22%) risk. To further explore group heterogeneity and to comply with new guidelines, we separated our prior intermediate risk group into favorable intermediate and unfavorable intermediate groups depending on how many intermediate risk factors were present (one vs. > one). The unfavorable intermediate group was further analyzed in combination with the high risk group as per NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014. Various dose levels were used over the years of treatment, and have been categorized into low dose (35 Gy, n = 5 or 36.25 Gy, n = 107) and high dose (37.5 Gy, n = 30). All treatments were delivered in five fractions. Toxicity was assessed using radiation therapy oncology group criteria. Five-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) was 100, 91.7, 95.2, 90.0, and 86.7% for very low, low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively. A significant difference in 5 year FFBF was noted for patients with Gleason score (GS) ≥8 vs. 7 vs. 5/6 (p = 0.03) and low vs. high dose (p = 0.05). T-stage, pretreatment PSA, age, risk stratification group, and use of ADT did not affect 5-year FFBF. Multivariate analysis revealed GS and dose to be the most predictive factors for 5-year FFBF. Our experience with SBRT for the primary treatment of localized prostate cancer demonstrates favorable efficacy and toxicity comparable to the results reported for IMRT in literature. GS remains the single most important pretreatment predictor of outcome.

Challenges and opportunities for imaging journals: emerging from the shadows.

PubMed

Kressel, Herbert Y

2011-09-01

In this article, we will discuss the challenges and opportunities for imaging journals in the next decades. These include: the importance of optimizing online communication to enhance exchange of ideas in the sciences and the necessity to facilitate the development of quantitative tools that will aid in risk stratification, diagnosis, monitoring of therapy, and disease surveillance in an era of "P4 medicine". Journals will also need to promote the evidence-based evaluation of promising technologies so that the resources expended in healthcare may be most effectively used.

Management of acute paracetamol (acetaminophen) toxicity: a standardised proforma improves risk assessment and overall risk stratification by emergency medicine doctors.

PubMed

McQuade, David J; Aknuri, Srikanth; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David M

2012-12-01

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common toxicological presentation in the UK. Doctors managing patients with paracetamol poisoning need to assess the risk of their patient developing hepatotoxicity before determining appropriate treatment. Patients deemed to be at 'high risk' of hepatotoxicity have lower treatment thresholds than those deemed to be at 'normal risk'. Errors in this process can lead to harmful or potentially fatal under or over treatment. To determine how well treating doctors assess risk factor status and whether a standardised proforma is useful in the risk stratification process. Retrospective 12-month case note review of all patients presenting with paracetamol poisoning to our large inner-city emergency department. Data were collected on the documentation of risk factors, the presence of a local hospital proforma and treatment outcomes. 249 presentations were analysed and only 59 (23.7%) had full documentation of all the risk factors required to make a complete risk assessment. 56 of the 59 (94.9%) had the local hospital proforma included in the notes; the remaining 3 (5.1%) had full documentation of risk factors despite the absence of a proforma. A local hospital proforma was more likely to be included in the emergency department notes in those with 'adequate documentation' (78 out of 120 (65%)) than for those with 'inadequate documentation' (16 out of 129 (12.4%)); X(2), p<0.001. Despite a low overall uptake of the proforma, use of a standardised proforma significantly increased the likelihood of documentation of the risk factors which increase risk for hepatotoxicity following paracetamol poisoning.

TCGA's Testicular Germ Cell Tumor Study - TCGA

Cancer.gov

TCGA network researchers identify molecular characteristics that classify testicular germ cell tumor types, including a separate subset of seminomas defined by KIT mutations. This provides a set of candidate biomarkers for risk stratification and potential therapeutic targeting.

Investigation of Methods to Predict Thermal Stratification and Its Effect on Solar Energy System Performance.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

International Conference, Vol 1, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia (November 1975), pp 508-510. + C. W. J. Van Koppen, L. S. Fischer, and A. Dijkmans ...S. Fischer, and A. Dijkmans , "Stratification Effects in te Short and Long Term Storage of Solar Heat," Proceed- ings, 1978 meeting of Amercan Sec

The role of copeptin as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for risk stratification in the emergency department

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis is activated in response to stress. One of the activated hypothalamic hormones is arginine vasopressin, a hormone involved in hemodynamics and osmoregulation. Copeptin, the C-terminal part of the arginine vasopressin precursor peptide, is a sensitive and stable surrogate marker for arginine vasopressin release. Measurement of copeptin levels has been shown to be useful in a variety of clinical scenarios, particularly as a prognostic marker in patients with acute diseases such as lower respiratory tract infection, heart disease and stroke. The measurement of copeptin levels may provide crucial information for risk stratification in a variety of clinical situations. As such, the emergency department appears to be the ideal setting for its potential use. This review summarizes the recent progress towards determining the prognostic and diagnostic value of copeptin in the emergency department. PMID:22264220

Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Clinical Update.

PubMed

Geske, Jeffrey B; Ommen, Steve R; Gersh, Bernard J

2018-05-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common heritable cardiomyopathy, manifesting as left ventricular hypertrophy in the absence of a secondary cause. The genetic underpinnings of HCM arise largely from mutations of sarcomeric proteins; however, the specific underlying mutation often remains undetermined. Patient presentation is phenotypically diverse, ranging from asymptomatic to heart failure or sudden cardiac death. Left ventricular hypertrophy and abnormal ventricular configuration result in dynamic left ventricular outflow obstruction in most patients. The goal of therapeutic interventions is largely to reduce dynamic obstruction, with treatment modalities spanning lifestyle modifications, pharmacotherapies, and septal reduction therapies. A small subset of patients with HCM will experience sudden cardiac death, and risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. This paper presents a clinical update for diagnosis, family screening, clinical imaging, risk stratification, and management of symptoms in patients with HCM. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The assessment and management of chest pain in primary care: A focus on acute coronary syndrome

PubMed

Thomsett, Richard; Cullen, Louise

2018-05-01

Chest pain is a common presentation and diagnosis can be challenging. There are many causes for chest pain, including life-threatening conditions such as acute coronary syndrome (ACS), which can prove difficult to diagnose. This article focuses on diagnosis and early management of patients with possible ACS. Key differentials and essential primary care investigations and management are outlined. Hospital-based risk stratification and management are described, providing an outline of what patients can expect if referred to hospital. In primary care, an electrocardiogram (ECG) is the only investigation required for most patients while referral is made to hospital. Troponin testing should rarely be requested to investigate patients with suspected ACS in the primary care setting. Initial treatment may include aspirin, glyceryl trinitrate and oxygen if required. If ACS is suspected as the cause of the symptoms, urgent referral for definitive risk stratification is required.

Risk stratification of childhood cancer survivors necessary for evidence-based clinical long-term follow-up

PubMed Central

Frobisher, Clare; Glaser, Adam; Levitt, Gill A; Cutter, David J; Winter, David L; Lancashire, Emma R; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Guha, Joyeeta; Kelly, Julie; Reulen, Raoul C; Hawkins, Michael M

2017-01-01

Background: Reorganisation of clinical follow-up care in England was proposed by the National Cancer Survivorship Initiative (NCSI), based on cancer type and treatment, ranging from Level 1 (supported self-management) to Level 3 (consultant-led care). The objective of this study was to provide an investigation of the risks of serious adverse health-outcomes associated with NCSI Levels of clinical care using a large population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS) was used to investigate risks of specific causes of death, subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs) and non-fatal non-neoplastic outcomes by NCSI Level. Results: Cumulative (excess) risks of specified adverse outcomes by 45 years from diagnosis among non-leukaemic survivors assigned to NCSI Levels 1, 2 and 3 were for: SPNs—5% (two-fold expected), 14% (four-fold expected) and 21% (eight-fold expected); non-neoplastic death—2% (two-fold expected), 4% (three-fold expected) and 8% (seven-fold expected); non-fatal non-neoplastic condition—14%, 27% and 40%, respectively. Consequently overall cumulative risks of any adverse health outcome were 21%, 45% and 69%, respectively. Conclusions: Despite its simplicity the risk stratification tool provides clear and strong discrimination between survivors assigned to different NCSI Levels in terms of long-term cumulative and excess risks of serious adverse outcomes. PMID:29065109

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Current state of the art.

PubMed

Kamal, Muhammad Umar; Riaz, Irbaz Bin; Janardhanan, Rajesh

2016-01-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common genetic cardiomyopathy with a prevalence of 1:500 (0.2%) in the general population. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most feared presentation of HCM. Therefore, it is essential to identify individuals at high risk in order to prevent SCD. The absence of conventional risk factors does not nullify the risk of HCM related SCD. Although echocardiography is currently the most widely used imaging modality, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) allows detailed characterization of the HCM phenotype, which makes it possible to differentiate HCM from other causes of left ventricular hypertrophy. CMR has the potential to further refine risk stratification. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) on CMR is a high-risk feature and there is emerging data to suggest that the presence of LGE should be employed as a marker for major adverse outcomes such as SCD, arrhythmias, systolic and diastolic heart failure. Hence, LGE on CMR may be considered an additional risk factor for SCD in HCM patients and should be incorporated in decision-making for implant-able cardioverter defibrillator implantation to aid primary prevention. Novel markers such as the extent of myocardial fibrosis on CMR must be accounted for comprehensive risk stratifica-tion of HCM patients. The purpose of this review is to discuss the current status and emerging role of CMR in HCM.

A clinical study of ischaemic strokes with micro-albuminuria for risk stratification, short-term predictive value and outcome.

PubMed

Das, Sukdeb; Yadav, Ujjal; Ghosh, Kartik Chandra; Panchadhyayee, Sujoy; Kundu, Shib Shankar; Ganguly, Prasanta Kumar

2012-12-01

Stroke results more than 4.3 million deaths worldwide per annum and 85% of all strokes are ischaemic in nature. Besides numerous modifiable and non-modifiable known risk factors, microalbuminuria is thought to be an important marker of global endothelial dysfunction and associated with cardiovascular disease including stroke. Fifty ischaemic stroke cases and 50 (age, sex matched) control subjects were subjected to study to compare and evaluate risk stratification of micro-albuminuria, its predictive value and outcome on day 1 and day 7 among admitted ischaemic stroke cases.The result was found that micro-albuminuria was present in 66% of ischaemic stroke cases compared to only 8% of control group (p < 0.001). Most validated National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was used for evaluation and calculation of predictive value and outcome of micro-albuminuria positive patient where higher value indicates poor prognosis, and the result was mean NIHSS score 29.12 versus 18.88 between two groups of strokes ie, with and without micro-albuminuria. Out of 50 ischaemic stroke patients 33 (66%) had micro-albuminuria. Among 11 patients who died, 10 (90.9%) had micro-albuminuria and NIHSS score was 33.64 and 25.0 on day 1 and day 7. Among 39 patients who were discharged, 23 patients (58.97%) were MA positive and NIHSS score was much less than death group ie, 23.38 and 16.38 on day 1 and day 7 respectively. So this study reveals micro-albuminuria itself results higher risk for ischaemic stroke compared to control group and it shows good predictive value for early assessment of clinical severity and subsequent fatal outcome. This is also simple, cost effective and affordable.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of prognostic gene expression signature-based stratification of early breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Blank, Patricia R; Filipits, Martin; Dubsky, Peter; Gutzwiller, Florian; Lux, Michael P; Brase, Jan C; Weber, Karsten E; Rudas, Margaretha; Greil, Richard; Loibl, Sibylle; Szucs, Thomas D; Kronenwett, Ralf; Schwenkglenks, Matthias; Gnant, Michael

2015-02-01

The individual risk of recurrence in hormone receptor-positive primary breast cancer patients determines whether adjuvant endocrine therapy should be combined with chemotherapy. Clinicopathological parameters and molecular tests such as EndoPredict(®) (EPclin) can support decision making in patients with estrogen receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative cancer. Using a life-long Markov state transition model, we determined the health economic impact and incremental cost effectiveness of EPclin-based risk stratification in combination with clinical guidelines [German-S3, National Comprehensive Cancer Center Network (NCCN), and St. Gallen] to decide on chemotherapy use. Information on overall and metastasis-free survival came from Austrian Breast & Colorectal Cancer Study Group clinical trials 6/8 (n = 1,619) and published literature. Effectiveness was assessed as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs (2010) were assessed from a German third-party payer perspective. Lifetime costs per patient ranged from 28,268 (St.Gallen and EPclin) to 33,756 (NCCN). Due to an imperfect prognostic value and differences in chemotherapy use, strategies achieved between 13.165 QALYs (NCCN) and 13.173 QALYs (EPclin alone) per patient. Using German-S3 as reference, three strategies showed dominant results (St. Gallen and EPclin, German-S3 and EPclin, EPclin alone). Compared to German-S3, the addition of EPclin saved 3,388 and gained 0.002 QALYs per patient. Combining guidelines with EPclin remained preferable in sensitivity analysis. Our study suggests that molecular markers can be sensibly combined with clinical guidelines to determine the risk profile of adjuvant breast cancer patients. Compared with the current German best practice (German-S3), combinations of EPclin with the St. Gallen, German-S3 or NCCN guideline and EPclin alone were dominant from the perspective of the German healthcare system.

Risk stratification following acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep

2007-07-01

This article reviews the current risk assessment models available for patients presenting with myocardial infarction (MI). These practical tools enhance the health care provider's ability to rapidly and accurately assess patient risk from the event or revascularization therapy, and are of paramount importance in managing patients presenting with MI. This article highlights the models used for ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI) and provides an additional description of models used to assess risks after primary angioplasty (ie, angioplasty performed for STEMI).

Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, K. Vasantha; Horrigan, David J.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H.

1991-01-01

In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.

[Sports medical aspects in cardiac risk stratification--heart rate variability and exercise capacity].

PubMed

Banzer, W; Lucki, K; Bürklein, M; Rosenhagen, A; Vogt, L

2006-12-01

The present study investigates the association of the predicted CHD-risk (PROCAM) with the individual endurance capacity and heart rate variability (HRV) in a population-based sample of sedentary elderly. After stratification, in 57 men (48.1+/-9.5 yrs.) with an overall PROCAM-risk <10% (28.7+/-10.9 points) and 22 men (54.5+/-7.7 yrs.) with a coronary 10-year risk > or =10% (50.8+/-5.6 points) cycle ergometries and short-term HRV analysis of time (RRMEAN, SDNN, RMSSD) and frequency domain parameters (LF, HF, TP, LF/HF) were conducted. Additionally the autonomic stress index (SI) was calculated. Nonparametric tests were used for statistical correlation analysis (Spearman rho) and group comparisons (Mann-Whitney). For endurance capacity [W/kg] (r=-0.469, p<0.001), SDNN (r=-0.302, p<0.05), RMSSD (r= -0.311, p<0.05), LF (r=-0.325, p<0.05), HF (r= -0.311, p<0.05) and TP (r= -0.307, p<0.05) negative monotone correlations with the coronary score-risk were determined. Significant positive correlations were calculated for SI (r=0.476, p<0.001). Except for RRMEAN and LF/HF significant group differences (p<0.05) were computed for SDNN (30.0+/-20.0 vs 20.0+/-10.0 ms), RMSSD (22.2+/-18.3 vs 18.0+/-8.7 ms), LF (90.9+/-241.5 vs 41.35+/-81.1 ms(2)), HF (43.0+/-105.1 vs 18.0+/-27.0 ms(2)) and TP (189.0+/-457.1 vs 100.0+/-157.6 ms(2)). Significant differences (p<0.01) were evaluated for exercise capacity (2.4+/-0.5 vs 1.8+/-0.3 W/kg) and SI (90+/-183 vs 322+/-291). The results underline the predictive value of HRV analysis in risk stratification and outline the interrelation of a decreased exercise capacity and autonomic function with a raised individual 10-year cardiac risk. As an independent parameter of the vegetative regulatory state the stress index may contribute to an increased practical relevance of short-time HRV analysis.

PCA-based polling strategy in machine learning framework for coronary artery disease risk assessment in intravascular ultrasound: A link between carotid and coronary grayscale plaque morphology.

PubMed

Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Shukla, Devarshi; Jain, Pankaj K; Londhe, Narendra D; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Banchhor, Sumit K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

2016-05-01

Percutaneous coronary interventional procedures need advance planning prior to stenting or an endarterectomy. Cardiologists use intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) for screening, risk assessment and stratification of coronary artery disease (CAD). We hypothesize that plaque components are vulnerable to rupture due to plaque progression. Currently, there are no standard grayscale IVUS tools for risk assessment of plaque rupture. This paper presents a novel strategy for risk stratification based on plaque morphology embedded with principal component analysis (PCA) for plaque feature dimensionality reduction and dominant feature selection technique. The risk assessment utilizes 56 grayscale coronary features in a machine learning framework while linking information from carotid and coronary plaque burdens due to their common genetic makeup. This system consists of a machine learning paradigm which uses a support vector machine (SVM) combined with PCA for optimal and dominant coronary artery morphological feature extraction. Carotid artery proven intima-media thickness (cIMT) biomarker is adapted as a gold standard during the training phase of the machine learning system. For the performance evaluation, K-fold cross validation protocol is adapted with 20 trials per fold. For choosing the dominant features out of the 56 grayscale features, a polling strategy of PCA is adapted where the original value of the features is unaltered. Different protocols are designed for establishing the stability and reliability criteria of the coronary risk assessment system (cRAS). Using the PCA-based machine learning paradigm and cross-validation protocol, a classification accuracy of 98.43% (AUC 0.98) with K=10 folds using an SVM radial basis function (RBF) kernel was achieved. A reliability index of 97.32% and machine learning stability criteria of 5% were met for the cRAS. This is the first Computer aided design (CADx) system of its kind that is able to demonstrate the ability of coronary risk assessment and stratification while demonstrating a successful design of the machine learning system based on our assumptions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Stratification of Stress Fractures and Prediction of Return to Duty

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

enrollment. In study Task 1 we aim to determine the sex- and race -ethnicity-specific bone traits that may contribute to stress fracture risk in military...SUBJECT TERMS bone microarchitecture, HRpQCT, race , gender, sex, bone mineral density, vBMD, bone geometry, stress fracture 16. SECURITY...sectional study aimed at identifying the bone properties that may be related to the well-known sex and race /ethnicity differences in risk for stress

Principal stratification in causal inference.

PubMed

Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

2002-03-01

Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography and texture analysis.

PubMed

Choi, Tae Won; Kim, Jung Hoon; Park, Sang Joon; Ahn, Su Joa; Joo, Ijin; Han, Joon Koo

2018-01-01

To assess important features for risk stratification of gallbladder (GB) polyps >10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography (HRUS) and texture analysis. We included 136 patients with GB polyps (>10 mm) who underwent both HRUS and cholecystectomy (non-neoplastic, n = 58; adenomatous, n = 32; and carcinoma, n = 46). Two radiologists retrospectively assessed HRUS findings and texture analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify significant predictors for neoplastic polyps and carcinomas. Single polyp (OR, 3.680-3.856) and larger size (OR, 1.450-1.477) were independently associated with neoplastic polyps (p < 0.05). In a single or polyp >14 mm, sensitivity for differentiating neoplastic from non-neoplastic polyps was 92.3%. To differentiate carcinoma from adenoma, sessile shape (OR, 9.485-41.257), larger size (OR, 1.267-1.303), higher skewness (OR, 6.382) and lower grey-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) contrast (OR, 0.963) were significant predictors (p < 0.05). In a polyp >22 mm or sessile, sensitivity for differentiating carcinomas from adenomas was 93.5-95.7%. If a polyp demonstrated at least one HRUS finding and at least one texture feature, the specificity for diagnosing carcinoma was increased to 90.6-93.8%. In a GB polyp >10 mm, single and diameter >14 mm were useful for predicting neoplastic polyps. In neoplastic polyps, sessile shape, diameter >22 mm, higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast were useful for predicting carcinoma. • Risk of neoplastic polyp is low in <14 mm and multiple polyps • A sessile polyp or >22 mm has increased risk for GB carcinomas • Higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast are predictors of GB carcinoma • HRUS is useful for risk stratification of GB polyps >1 cm.

Impaired Right, Left, or Biventricular Function and Resting Oxygen Saturation Are Associated With Mortality in Eisenmenger Syndrome: A Clinical and Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Study.

PubMed

Jensen, Annette S; Broberg, Craig S; Rydman, Riikka; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Li, Wei; Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Wort, Stephen J; Pennell, Dudley J; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Babu-Narayan, Sonya V

2015-12-01

Patients with Eisenmenger syndrome (ES) have better survival, despite similar pulmonary vascular pathology, compared with other patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is useful for risk stratification in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension, whereas it has not been evaluated in ES. We studied CMR together with other noninvasive measurements in ES to evaluate its potential role as a noninvasive risk stratification test. Between 2003 and 2005, 48 patients with ES, all with a post-tricuspid shunt, were enrolled in a prospective, longitudinal, single-center study. All patients underwent a standardized baseline assessment with CMR, blood test, echocardiography, and 6-minute walk test and were followed up for mortality until the end of December 2013. Twelve patients (25%) died during follow-up, mostly from heart failure (50%). Impaired ventricular function (right or left ventricular ejection fraction) was associated with increased risk of mortality (lowest quartile: right ventricular ejection fraction, <40%; hazard ratio, 4.4 [95% confidence interval, 1.4-13.5]; P=0.01 and left ventricular ejection fraction, <50%; hazard ratio, 6.6 [95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.8]; P=0.001). Biventricular impairment (lowest quartile left ventricular ejection fraction, <50% and right ventricular ejection fraction, <40%) conveyed an even higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio, 8.0 [95% confidence interval, 2.5-25.1]; P=0.0004). No other CMR or noninvasive measurement besides resting oxygen saturation (hazard ratio, 0.90 [0.83-0.97]/%; P=0.007) was associated with mortality. Impaired right, left, or biventricular systolic function derived from baseline CMR and resting oxygen saturation are associated with mortality in adult patients with ES. CMR is a useful noninvasive tool, which may be incorporated in the risk stratification assessment of ES during lifelong follow-up. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Early Dynamic Risk Stratification with Baseline Troponin Levels and 90-minute ST Segment Resolution to Predict 30 Day Cardiovascular Mortality in STEMI: Analysis from CLARITY TIMI-28

PubMed Central

Sherwood, Matthew W.; Morrow, David A.; Scirica, Benjamin M.; Jiang, Songtao; Bode, Christoph; Rifai, Nader; Gerszten, Robert E.; Gibson, C. Michael; Cannon, Christopher P.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sabatine, Marc S.

2010-01-01

Background Troponin is the preferred biomarker for risk stratification in non-ST-elevation ACS. The incremental prognostic utility of the initial magnitude of troponin elevation and its value in conjunction with ST segment resolution (STRes) in STEMI is less well-defined. Methods Troponin T (TnT) was measured in 1250 patients at presentation undergoing fibrinolysis for STEMI in CLARITY-TIMI 28. STRes was measured at 90 minutes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent association between TnT levels, STRes, and 30-day cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Results Patients were classified into undetectable TnT at baseline (n=594), detectable but below the median of 0.12 ng/ml (n=330), and above the median (n=326). Rates of 30-day CV death were 1.5%, 4.5%, and 9.5% respectively (P<0.0001). Compared with those with undetectable levels and adjusting for baseline factors, the odds ratios for 30-day CV death were 4.56 (1.72-12.08, P=0.002) and 5.81 (2.29-14.73, P=0.0002) for those below and above the median, respectively. When combined with STRes, there was a significant gradient of risk, and in a multivariable model both baseline TnT (P=0.004) and STRes (P=0.003) were significant predictors of 30-day CV death. The addition of TnT and STRes to clinical risk factors significantly improved the C-statistic (0.86 to 0.90, P=0.02) and the integrated discriminative improvement 7.1% (P=0.0009). Conclusions Baseline TnT and 90-minute STRes are independent predictors of 30-day CV death in patients with STEMI. Use of these two simple, readily available tools can aid clinicians in early risk stratification. PMID:20569707

Calculation of Local Stress and Fatigue Resistance due to Thermal Stratification on Pressurized Surge Line Pipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandriyana, B.; Utaja

2010-06-01

Thermal stratification introduces thermal shock effect which results in local stress and fatique problems that must be considered in the design of nuclear power plant components. Local stress and fatique calculation were performed on the Pressurize Surge Line piping system of the Pressurize Water Reactor of the Nuclear Power Plant. Analysis was done on the operating temperature between 177 to 343° C and the operating pressure of 16 MPa (160 Bar). The stagnant and transient condition with two kinds of stratification model has been evaluated by the two dimensional finite elements method using the ANSYS program. Evaluation of fatigue resistance is developed based on the maximum local stress using the ASME standard Code formula. Maximum stress of 427 MPa occurred at the upper side of the top half of hot fluid pipe stratification model in the transient case condition. The evaluation of the fatigue resistance is performed on 500 operating cycles in the life time of 40 years and giving the usage value of 0,64 which met to the design requirement for class 1 of nuclear component. The out surge transient were the most significant case in the localized effects due to thermal stratification.

Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models. Methods We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants. Results We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures. Conclusions The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC. PMID:21797996

Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

PubMed

Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

2017-02-01

Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Current challenges and opportunities in treating adult patients with Philadelphia-negative acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Wolach, Ofir; Amitai, Irina; DeAngelo, Daniel J

2017-12-01

Significant advances have been made in recent years in the field of Philadelphia-negative acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). New insights into the biology and genetics of ALL as well as novel clinical observations and new drugs are changing the way we diagnose, risk-stratify and treat adult patients with ALL. New genetic subtypes and alterations refine risk stratification and uncover new actionable therapeutic targets. The incorporation of more intensive, paediatric and paediatric-inspired approaches for young adults seem to have a positive impact on survival in this population. Minimal residual disease at different time points can assist in tailoring risk-adapted interventions for patients based on individual response. Finally, novel targeted approaches with monoclonal antibodies, immunotherapies and small molecules are moving through clinical development and entering the clinic. The aim of this review is to consolidate the abundance of emerging data and to review and revisit the concepts of risk-stratification, choice of induction and post-remission strategies as well as to discuss and update the approach to specific populations with ALL, such as young adult, elderly/unfit and relapsed/refractory patients with ALL. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Chronic Kidney Disease in Pregnancy.

PubMed

Koratala, Abhilash; Bhattacharya, Deepti; Kazory, Amir

2017-09-01

With the increasing prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) worldwide, the number of pregnant women with various degrees of renal dysfunction is expected to increase. There is a bidirectional relation between CKD and pregnancy in which renal dysfunction negatively affects pregnancy outcomes, and the pregnancy can have a deleterious impact on various aspects of kidney disease. It has been shown that even mild renal dysfunction can increase considerably the risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Moreover, data suggest that a history of recovery from acute kidney injury is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. In addition to kidney dysfunction, maternal hypertension and proteinuria predispose women to negative outcomes and are important factors to consider in preconception counseling and the process of risk stratification. In this review, we provide an overview of the physiologic renal changes during pregnancy as well as available data regarding CKD and pregnancy outcomes. We also highlight the important management strategies in women with certain selected renal conditions that are seen commonly during the childbearing years. We call for future research on underexplored areas such as the concept of renal functional reserve to develop a potential clinical tool for prognostication and risk stratification of women at higher risk for complications during pregnancy.

Risk stratification for large artery or chronic coronary artery disease-related ischemic stroke in octogenarians undergoing exercise stress myocardial perfusion imaging: A cohort study.

PubMed

Katsikis, Athanasios; Theodorakos, Athanasios; Drosatos, Alexandros; Konstantinou, Konstantinos; Papaioannou, Spyridon; Koutelou, Maria

2017-04-01

To test, if in octogenarians, treadmill exercise with myocardial perfusion imaging (exercise-MPI) can risk stratify for large artery or chronic CAD-related ischemic stroke (LACCIS). Exercise-MPI-related data of 237 octogenarians (55% prior MI or revascularization) without previous stroke were registered and prospective follow-up was performed to document LACCIS. LACCIS was defined as acute onset of neurological symptoms with CT/MRI findings of non-lacunar-type infarcts in the absence of atrial fibrillation or intracardiac embolic sources. After 7.3 years, 10 LACCIS were documented. SSS [HR 1.08 (1.02-1.13 95% CIs), SDS [HR 1.1 (1.04-1.16 95% CIs)], and non-sustained VT or transient AV block during exercise [HR 3.9 (1.7-9.0 95% CIs)] were predictors of LACCIS (P < .01 for all). A SSS threshold of 16 had 81% specificity for identification of future LACCIS and risk groups formed according to this cut-off had significantly different LACCIS-free survival (P = .015). Exercise-MPI in octogenarians can provide risk stratification markers for LACCIS.

Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification for pancreatic endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration specimens

PubMed Central

Chen, Bo; Zhao, Yu; Gu, Jiangang; Wu, Huanwen; Liang, Zhiyong; Meng, Zhilan

2017-01-01

The Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology has recently proposed a standardized terminology and nomenclature guidelines for pancreatic cytology. However the risk of malignancy associated with the new guidelines has been scarcely studied. In this study, a series of pancreatic cytology cases obtained by endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration from 294 Chinese patients were retrospectively re-categorized into six categories according the new guidelines. The risks of malignancy were 18.1% for “negative,” 20.0% for “neoplastic,” 57.1% for “nondiagnostic,” 69.2% for “atypical,” 87.5% for “suspicious,” and 100.0% for “positive” respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.90-0.96), which was significantly higher than that associated with old classification system (0.82; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.77-0.87) conventionally used in China. Our investigation demonstrated that the new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification than the old classification system conventionally used in China. This may be helpful in giving better predictions of malignancy, thus leading to more personalized treatment strategies. PMID:28042957

Evaluation of 3D Ground Penetrating Radar Efficiency for Abandoned Tailings Pond Internal Structure Analysis and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortada, Unai; Martínez, Julián; Hidalgo, Mª Carmen; Rey, Javier

2017-04-01

Evaluation of 3D Ground Penetrating Radar Efficiency for Abandoned Tailings Pond Internal Structure Analysis and Risk Assessment Abandoned tailings ponds constitute a severe environmental problem in old Pb mining districts due to their high contents in metallic and semi-metallic elements. In most of the cases, there is a lack of information about the construction procedures and the previous environmental situation, which hinders the environmental risk evaluation. In these cases, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) could be an interesting technique to analyze the internal structure of the tailings ponds and detect vulnerable zones for leaching processes. Consequently, the GPR could help in the abandoned tailings ponds environmental risk assessment. In this study, a GPR 3D campaign was carried out with a 250 MHz frequency antenna in order to evaluate the efficiency of this technique in both the analysis of internal structures and the environmental risk assessment. Subsequently, 2D and 3D models were undertaken to represent graphically the obtained results. The studied tailings pond is located in the Guadiel river bank, a water course draining the mining district of Linares, Spain. The dam is 150 m length and 80 m width. The GPR 3D was done in a selected area near the central part of the pond. The analyzed grid was 25x50 m and the spacing of the slides was 1 m. The study revealed that the contact between the tailings and the substratum is located at 2.5 m. No intermediate layer was found, which means that the tailings pond was heightened on the fluvial terrace without any insulation system. Inside the first meter of the pond, a cross stratification was identified. The orientation of those laminations changed with the depth, which means that the stockpiling was performed from the different sides of the tailings pond. Furthermore, the direction of these stratifications is slightly concentric to the middle of the dam which could be associated with a central drainage system. Therefore, the internal zone of the tailings pond appears to be the most vulnerable for leaching processes that could contaminate the groundwater. Thus, this technique gave detailed information of the internal structure at the first meters despite the rapid attenuation of the GPR signal. In consequence, the GPR 3D with 250 MHz antenna appears to be effective for the detection of the tailings ponds cross stratification and the tailings-soil contact in dams with less than 5 meters of thickness.

68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for prostate cancer staging and risk stratification in Chinese patients.

PubMed

Zang, Shiming; Shao, Guoqiang; Cui, Can; Li, Tian-Nv; Huang, Yue; Yao, Xiaochen; Fan, Qiu; Chen, Zejun; Du, Jin; Jia, Ruipeng; Sun, Hongbin; Hua, Zichun; Tang, Jun; Wang, Feng

2017-02-14

We evaluated the clinical utility of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for staging and risk stratification of treatment-naïve prostate cancer (PCa) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Twenty-two consecutive patients with treatment-naïve PCa and 18 with mCRPC were enrolled. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for the evaluation of primary prostatic lesions, and bone scans were used for evaluation bone metastasis. Among the 40 patients, 37 (92.5% [22 treatment-naïve PCa, 15 mCRPC]) showed PSMA-avid lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 images. Only 3 patients with stable mCRPC after chemotherapy were negative for PSMA. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 imaging were 97.3%, 100.0% and 97.5%, respectively. The maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of prostatic lesions was 17.09 ± 11.08 and 13.33 ± 12.31 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 revealed 105 metastatic lymph nodes in 15 patients; the SUVmax was 16.85 ± 9.70 and 7.54 ± 5.20 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT also newly detected visceral metastasis in 9 patients (22.5%) and bone metastasis in 29 patients (72.5%). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT exhibits potential for staging and risk stratification in naïve PCa, as well as improved sensitivity for detection of lymph node and remote metastasis.

Prognostic impact of peakVO2-changes in stable CHF on chronic beta-blocker treatment.

PubMed

Frankenstein, L; Nelles, M; Hallerbach, M; Dukic, D; Fluegel, A; Schellberg, D; Katus, H A; Remppis, A; Zugck, C

2007-11-15

Peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) is used for risk stratification in chronic heart failure (CHF), but little is known about the prognostic impact of pVO2-changes in patients on chronic beta-blocker (BBL) therapy. We therefore prospectively evaluated individual pVO2-changes at a 6-month interval in patients all receiving BBL. 194 patients with stable CHF on stable medication were included (V1) and underwent clinical evaluation and exercise testing. Testing was repeated (V2) at 5.7+/-1.5 months after V1 and patients were followed >12 months after V2. Death or hospitalisation due to cardiac reasons was the predefined EP (EPP, end-point positive; n=62; EPN, end-point negative; n=113). Initial characteristics did not differ between EPP and EPN. Multivariate cox regression analysis revealed that change of pVO2 (EPP: -0.6+/-2.6 ml/kg min; EPN: +2.5+/-3.3 ml/kg min; p<0.001) was independent to pVO2, LVEF, NTproBNP and NYHA at V2 for prediction of the combined end-point during follow-up. An increase of pVO2 by 10% was identified as an adequate cut-off value for risk stratification and ROC-analysis showed the significant incremental prognostic value of the determination of pVO2 changes in combination with pVO2. Serial measurements of pVO2 yield additional information for risk stratification in clinically homogenous CHF patients receiving BBL. This is the first study demonstrating this fact within a narrow predefined interval with all patients on BBL.

68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for prostate cancer staging and risk stratification in Chinese patients

PubMed Central

Cui, Can; Li, Tian-Nv; Huang, Yue; Yao, Xiaochen; Fan, Qiu; Chen, Zejun; Du, Jin; Jia, Ruipeng; Sun, Hongbin; Hua, Zichun; Tang, Jun; Wang, Feng

2017-01-01

We evaluated the clinical utility of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for staging and risk stratification of treatment-naïve prostate cancer (PCa) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Twenty-two consecutive patients with treatment-naïve PCa and 18 with mCRPC were enrolled. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for the evaluation of primary prostatic lesions, and bone scans were used for evaluation bone metastasis. Among the 40 patients, 37 (92.5% [22 treatment-naïve PCa, 15 mCRPC]) showed PSMA-avid lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 images. Only 3 patients with stable mCRPC after chemotherapy were negative for PSMA. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 imaging were 97.3%, 100.0% and 97.5%, respectively. The maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of prostatic lesions was 17.09 ± 11.08 and 13.33 ± 12.31 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 revealed 105 metastatic lymph nodes in 15 patients; the SUVmax was 16.85 ± 9.70 and 7.54 ± 5.20 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT also newly detected visceral metastasis in 9 patients (22.5%) and bone metastasis in 29 patients (72.5%). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT exhibits potential for staging and risk stratification in naïve PCa, as well as improved sensitivity for detection of lymph node and remote metastasis. PMID:28103574

Pulmonary manifestations of rheumatologic diseases.

PubMed

Cidon, Michal; Bansal, Manvi; Hartl, Dominik

2017-06-01

The present review intends to provide an overview of the diversity and complexity of pulmonary manifestations of rheumatologic diseases and gaps in knowledge to effectively manage them. Diffuse lung disease in children with rheumatologic diseases represents a heterogeneous group of autoimmune disorders. Despite their significant morbidity and mortality, we have limited understanding about their pathogenesis. Here, we provide an overview of the pathophysiology and current management approach of these disorders, highlighting tools which assist with diagnosis, risk stratification and therapy. In this context, we address the need to develop a standardized approach to diagnose at-risk patients with rheumatologic disease and to predict their progression and the need to develop robust studies which evaluate the factors and interventions that influence pulmonary disease outcome. Diffuse lung disease in children with rheumatologic diseases represents a heterogeneous group of severe autoimmune disorders. By adopting a collaborative research approach among multicenters to help diagnose, risk stratify, and understand disease progression, effective management decisions can be optimized to improve clinical outcome.

Applying Latent Class Analysis to Risk Stratification for Perioperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Intraabdominal General Surgery.

PubMed

Kim, Minjae; Wall, Melanie M; Li, Guohua

2016-07-01

Perioperative risk stratification is often performed using individual risk factors without consideration of the syndemic of these risk factors. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the classes of comorbidities and risk factors associated with perioperative mortality in patients presenting for intraabdominal general surgery. The 2005 to 2010 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to obtain a cohort of patients undergoing intraabdominal general surgery. Risk factors and comorbidities were entered into LCA models to identify the latent classes, and individuals were assigned to a class based on the highest posterior probability of class membership. Relative risk regression was used to determine the associations between the latent classes and 30-day mortality, with adjustments for procedure. A 9-class model was fit using LCA on 466,177 observations. After combining classes with similar adjusted mortality risks, 5 risk classes were obtained. Compared with the class with average mortality risk (class 4), the risk ratios (95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.020 (0.014-0.027) in the lowest risk class (class 1) to 6.75 (6.46-7.02) in the highest risk class. After adjusting for procedure and ASA physical status, the latent classes remained significantly associated with 30-day mortality. The addition of the risk class variable to a model containing ASA physical status and surgical procedure demonstrated a significant increase in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.892 vs 0.915; P < 0.0001). Latent classes of risk factors and comorbidities in patients undergoing intraabdominal surgery are predictive of 30-day mortality independent of the ASA physical status and improve risk prediction with the ASA physical status.

Thermal advection and stratification effects on surface winds and the low level meridional mass transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, Gad; Tiu, Felice S.

1990-01-01

Statistical tests are performed on the Seasat scatterometer observations to examine if and to what degree thermal advection and stratification effects manifest themselves in these remotely sensed measurements of mean wind and wind stress over the ocean. On the basis of a two layer baroclinic boundary layer model which is presented, it is shown that the thermal advection and stratification of the entire boundary layer as well as the geostrophic forcing influence the modeled near surface wind and wind stress profiles. Evidence of diurnal variation in the stratification under barotropic conditions is found in the data, with the daytime marine boundary layer being more convective than its nighttime counterpart. The temporal and spacial sampling pattern of the satellite makes it impossible to recover the full diurnal cycle, however. The observed effects of the thermal advection are shown to be statistically significant during the day (and presumed more convective) hours, causing a systematic increase in the poleward transport of mass and heat. The statistical results are in a qualitative agreement with the model simulations and cannot be reproduced in randomized control tests.

Temperature Stratification in a Cryogenic Fuel Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew John; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Boschee, Jacob; Foygel, Michael Gregory

2013-01-01

A reduced dynamical model describing temperature stratification effects driven by natural convection in a liquid hydrogen cryogenic fuel tank has been developed. It accounts for cryogenic propellant loading, storage, and unloading in the conditions of normal, increased, and micro- gravity. The model involves multiple horizontal control volumes in both liquid and ullage spaces. Temperature and velocity boundary layers at the tank walls are taken into account by using correlation relations. Heat exchange involving the tank wall is considered by means of the lumped-parameter method. By employing basic conservation laws, the model takes into consideration the major multi-phase mass and energy exchange processes involved, such as condensation-evaporation of the hydrogen, as well as flows of hydrogen liquid and vapor in the presence of pressurizing helium gas. The model involves a liquid hydrogen feed line and a tank ullage vent valve for pressure control. The temperature stratification effects are investigated, including in the presence of vent valve oscillations. A simulation of temperature stratification effects in a generic cryogenic tank has been implemented in Matlab and results are presented for various tank conditions.

Prehypertension: risk stratification and management considerations.

PubMed

Egan, Brent M; Julius, Stevo

2008-10-01

Approximately 37% of US adults are prehypertensive; about 31 million have blood pressures in the range of 130-139/85-89 mm Hg. These stage 2 prehypertensives have threefold greater risk for developing hypertension and twofold higher risk for cardiovascular events than normotensives. Lifestyle changes only are recommended for most prehypertensives, but evidence for community-wide effectiveness is limited. Projected numbers needed to treat to prevent a cardiovascular event are similar for stage 2 prehypertension and stage 1 hypertension when both groups are matched for concomitant risk factors. However, no clinical trials document that pharmacotherapy reduces cardiovascular events in stage 2 prehypertension. The Trial of Preventing Hypertension demonstrated that angiotensin receptor blockade safely lowers blood pressure and prevents or delays progression to hypertension in stage 2 prehypertensives. We believe it is reasonable for clinicians to identify stage 2 prehypertensives at high absolute risk for progression to hypertension and cardiovascular events, and to treat them with a renin-angiotensin system blocker when lifestyle changes alone are ineffective.

A comparison of stratification effectiveness between the National Land Cover Data set and photointerpretation in western Oregon

Treesearch

Paul Dunham; Dale Weyermann; Dale Azuma

2002-01-01

Stratifications developed from National Land Cover Data (NLCD) and from photointerpretation (PI) were tested for effectiveness in reducing sampling error associated with estimates of timberland area and volume from FIA plots in western Oregon. Strata were created from NLCD through the aggregation of cover classes and the creation of 'edge' strata by...

Home telemonitoring of vital signs--technical challenges and future directions.

PubMed

Celler, Branko G; Sparks, Ross S

2015-01-01

The telemonitoring of vital signs from the home is an essential element of telehealth services for the management of patients with chronic conditions, such as congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, or poorly controlled hypertension. Telehealth is now being deployed widely in both rural and urban settings, and in this paper, we discuss the contribution made by biomedical instrumentation, user interfaces, and automated risk stratification algorithms in developing a clinical diagnostic quality longitudinal health record at home. We identify technical challenges in the acquisition of high-quality biometric signals from unsupervised patients at home, identify new technical solutions and user interfaces, and propose new measurement modalities and signal processing techniques for increasing the quality and value of vital signs monitoring at home. We also discuss use of vital signs data for the automated risk stratification of patients, so that clinical resources can be targeted to those most at risk of unscheduled admission to hospital. New research is also proposed to integrate primary care, hospital, personal genomic, and telehealth electronic health records, and apply predictive analytics and data mining for enhancing clinical decision support.

The effects of soak temperature on sugar maple seed germination

Treesearch

Carol A. Janerette

1978-01-01

The temperature at which sugar maple seeds were soaked before stratification significantly influenced their germination. Maximal germination was obtained when seeds were soaked at 4?C, but if seeds were soaked at 25?C, germination decreased and the stratification requirement increased.

American Thyroid Association statement on the essential elements of interdisciplinary communication of perioperative information for patients undergoing thyroid cancer surgery.

PubMed

Carty, Sally E; Doherty, Gerard M; Inabnet, William B; Pasieka, Janice L; Randolph, Gregory W; Shaha, Ashok R; Terris, David J; Tufano, Ralph P; Tuttle, R Michael

2012-04-01

Thyroid cancer specialists require specific perioperative information to develop a management plan for patients with thyroid cancer, but there is not yet a model for effective interdisciplinary data communication. The American Thyroid Association Surgical Affairs Committee was asked to define a suggested essential perioperative dataset representing the critical information that should be readily available to participating members of the treatment team. To identify and agree upon a multidisciplinary set of critical perioperative findings requiring communication, we examined diverse best-practice documents relating to thyroidectomy and extracted common features felt to enhance precise, direct communication with nonsurgical caregivers. Suggested essential datasets for the preoperative, intraoperative, and immediate postoperative findings and management of patients undergoing surgery for thyroid cancer were identified and are presented. For operative reporting, the essential features of both a dictated narrative format and a synoptic computer format are modeled in detail. The importance of interdisciplinary communication is discussed with regard to the extent of required resection, the final pathology findings, surgical complications, and other factors that may influence risk stratification, adjuvant treatment, and surveillance. Accurate communication of the important findings and sequelae of thyroidectomy for cancer is critical to individualized risk stratification as well as to the clinical issues of thyroid cancer care that are often jointly managed in the postoperative setting. True interdisciplinary care is essential to providing optimal care and surveillance.

Biomarker discovery and development in pediatric critical care medicine

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Jennifer M.; Wong, Hector R.

2010-01-01

Objective To frame the general process of biomarker discovery and development, and to describe a proposal for the development of a multi-biomarker based risk model for pediatric septic shock. Data Source Narrative literature review and author generated data. Main Results Biomarkers can be grouped into four broad classes, based on the intended function: diagnostic, monitoring, surrogate, and stratification. Biomarker discovery and development requires a rigorous process, which is frequently not well followed in the critical care medicine literature. Very few biomarkers have successfully transitioned from the candidate stage to the true biomarker stage. There is great interest in developing diagnostic and stratification biomarkers for sepsis. Procalcitonin is currently the most promising diagnostic biomarker for sepsis. Recent evidence suggests that interleukin-8 can be used to stratify children with septic shock having a high likelihood of survival with standard care. Currently, there is a multi-institutional effort to develop a multi-biomarker based sepsis risk model intended to predict outcome and illness severity for individual children with septic shock. Conclusions Biomarker discovery and development is an important portion of the pediatric critical care medicine translational research agenda. This effort will require collaboration across multiple institutions and investigators. Rigorous conduct of biomarker-focused research holds the promise of transforming our ability to care for individual patients and our ability to conduct clinical trials in a more effective manner. PMID:20473243

Self-Reported Stroke Risk Stratification: Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

PubMed

Howard, George; McClure, Leslie A; Moy, Claudia S; Howard, Virginia J; Judd, Suzanne E; Yuan, Ya; Long, D Leann; Muntner, Paul; Safford, Monika M; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2017-07-01

The standard for stroke risk stratification is the Framingham Stroke Risk Function (FSRF), an equation requiring an examination for blood pressure assessment, venipuncture for glucose assessment, and ECG to determine atrial fibrillation and heart disease. We assess a self-reported stroke risk function (SRSRF) to stratify stroke risk in comparison to the FSRF. Participants from the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) were evaluated at baseline and followed for incident stroke. The FSRF was calculated using directly assessed stroke risk factors. The SRSRF was calculated from 13 self-reported questions to exclude those with prevalent stroke and assess stroke risk. Proportional hazards analysis was used to assess incident stroke risk using the FSRF and SRSRF. Over an average 8.2-year follow-up, 939 of 23 983 participants had a stroke. The FSRF and SRSRF produced highly correlated risk scores ( r Spearman =0.852; 95% confidence interval, 0.849-0.856); however, the SRSRF had higher discrimination of stroke risk than the FSRF (c SRSRF =0.7266; 95% confidence interval, 0.7076-0.7457; c FSRF =0.7075; 95% confidence interval, 0.6877-0.7273; P =0.0038). The 10-year stroke risk in the highest decile of predicted risk was 11.1% for the FSRF and 13.4% for the SRSRF. A simple self-reported questionnaire can be used to identify those at high risk for stroke better than the gold standard FSRF. This instrument can be used clinically to easily identify individuals at high risk for stroke and also scientifically to identify a subpopulation enriched for stroke risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Carotid artery stenting: current and emerging options

PubMed Central

Morr, Simon; Lin, Ning; Siddiqui, Adnan H

2014-01-01

Carotid artery stenting technologies are rapidly evolving. Options for endovascular surgeons and interventionists who treat occlusive carotid disease continue to expand. We here present an update and overview of carotid stenting devices. Evidence supporting carotid stenting includes randomized controlled trials that compare endovascular stenting to open surgical endarterectomy. Carotid technologies addressed include the carotid stents themselves as well as adjunct neuroprotective devices. Aspects of stent technology include bare-metal versus covered stents, stent tapering, and free-cell area. Drug-eluting and cutting balloon indications are described. Embolization protection options and new direct carotid access strategies are reviewed. Adjunct technologies, such as intravascular ultrasound imaging and risk stratification algorithms, are discussed. Bare-metal and covered stents provide unique advantages and disadvantages. Stent tapering may allow for a more fitted contour to the caliber decrement between the common carotid and internal carotid arteries but also introduces new technical challenges. Studies regarding free-cell area are conflicting with respect to benefits and associated risk; clinical relevance of associated adverse effects associated with either type is unclear. Embolization protection strategies include distal filter protection and flow reversal. Though flow reversal was initially met with some skepticism, it has gained wider acceptance and may provide the advantage of not crossing the carotid lesion before protection is established. New direct carotid access techniques address difficult anatomy and incorporate sophisticated flow-reversal embolization protection techniques. Carotid stenting is a new and exciting field with rapidly advancing technologies. Embolization protection, low-risk deployment, and lesion assessment and stratification are active areas of research. Ample room remains for further innovations and developments. PMID:25349483

Predictive risk stratification model: a progressive cluster-randomised trial in chronic conditions management (PRISMATIC) research protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background An ageing population increases demand on health and social care. New approaches are needed to shift care from hospital to community and general practice. A predictive risk stratification tool (Prism) has been developed for general practice that estimates risk of an emergency hospital admission in the following year. We present a protocol for the evaluation of Prism. Methods/Design We will undertake a mixed methods progressive cluster-randomised trial. Practices begin as controls, delivering usual care without Prism. Practices will receive Prism and training randomly, and thereafter be able to use Prism with clinical and technical support. We will compare costs, processes of care, satisfaction and patient outcomes at baseline, 6 and 18 months, using routine data and postal questionnaires. We will assess technical performance by comparing predicted against actual emergency admissions. Focus groups and interviews will be undertaken to understand how Prism is perceived and adopted by practitioners and policy makers. We will model data using generalised linear models and survival analysis techniques to determine whether any differences exist between intervention and control groups. We will take account of covariates and explanatory factors. In the economic evaluation we will carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to examine incremental cost per emergency admission to hospital avoided and will examine costs versus changes in primary and secondary outcomes in a cost-consequence analysis. We will also examine changes in quality of life of patients across the risk spectrum. We will record and transcribe focus groups and interviews and analyse them thematically. We have received full ethical and R&D approvals for the study and Information Governance Review Panel (IGRP) permission for the use of routine data. We will comply with the CONSORT guidelines and will disseminate the findings at national and international conferences and in peer-reviewed journals. Discussion The proposed study will provide information on costs and effects of Prism; how it is used in practice, barriers and facilitators to its implementation; and its perceived value in supporting the management of patients with and at risk of developing chronic conditions. Trial registration Controlled Clinical Trials ISRCTN no. ISRCTN55538212. PMID:24330749

The introduction of an acute physiological support service for surgical patients is an effective error reduction strategy.

PubMed

Clarke, D L; Kong, V Y; Naidoo, L C; Furlong, H; Aldous, C

2013-01-01

Acute surgical patients are particularly vulnerable to human error. The Acute Physiological Support Team (APST) was created with the twin objectives of identifying high-risk acute surgical patients in the general wards and reducing both the incidence of error and impact of error on these patients. A number of error taxonomies were used to understand the causes of human error and a simple risk stratification system was adopted to identify patients who are particularly at risk of error. During the period November 2012-January 2013 a total of 101 surgical patients were cared for by the APST at Edendale Hospital. The average age was forty years. There were 36 females and 65 males. There were 66 general surgical patients and 35 trauma patients. Fifty-six patients were referred on the day of their admission. The average length of stay in the APST was four days. Eleven patients were haemo-dynamically unstable on presentation and twelve were clinically septic. The reasons for referral were sepsis,(4) respiratory distress,(3) acute kidney injury AKI (38), post-operative monitoring (39), pancreatitis,(3) ICU down-referral,(7) hypoxia,(5) low GCS,(1) coagulopathy.(1) The mortality rate was 13%. A total of thirty-six patients experienced 56 errors. A total of 143 interventions were initiated by the APST. These included institution or adjustment of intravenous fluids (101), blood transfusion,(12) antibiotics,(9) the management of neutropenic sepsis,(1) central line insertion,(3) optimization of oxygen therapy,(7) correction of electrolyte abnormality,(8) correction of coagulopathy.(2) CONCLUSION: Our intervention combined current taxonomies of error with a simple risk stratification system and is a variant of the defence in depth strategy of error reduction. We effectively identified and corrected a significant number of human errors in high-risk acute surgical patients. This audit has helped understand the common sources of error in the general surgical wards and will inform on-going error reduction initiatives. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

Effects of occupational stress on the gastrointestinal tract

PubMed Central

Huerta-Franco, María-Raquel; Vargas-Luna, Miguel; Tienda, Paola; Delgadillo-Holtfort, Isabel; Balleza-Ordaz, Marco; Flores-Hernandez, Corina

2013-01-01

The aim of this review is to provide a general overview of the relationship between occupational stress and gastrointestinal alterations. The International Labour Organization suggests occupational health includes psychological aspects to achieve mental well-being. However, the definition of health risks for an occupation includes biological, chemical, physical and ergonomic factors but does not address psychological stress or other affective disorders. Nevertheless, multiple investigations have studied occupational stress and its physiological consequences, focusing on specific risk groups and occupations considered stressful. Among the physiological effects of stress, gastrointestinal tract (GIT) alterations are highly prevalent. The relationship between occupational stress and GIT diseases is evident in everyday clinical practice; however, the usual strategy is to attack the effects but not the root of the problem. That is, in clinics, occupational stress is recognized as a source of GIT problems, but employers do not ascribe it enough importance as a risk factor, in general, and for gastrointestinal health, in particular. The identification, stratification, measurement and evaluation of stress and its associated corrective strategies, particularly for occupational stress, are important topics to address in the near future to establish the basis for considering stress as an important risk factor in occupational health. PMID:24244879

Abundance stratification in the atmospheres of blue horizontal-branch stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeBlanc, F.

2013-12-01

Horizontal-branch stars with effective temperatures larger than approximately 11 500 K show abundance anomalies as well as other peculiar observational properties believed to be due to atomic diffusion in their atmosphere. These stars possess low rotational velocities that makes it possible for atomic diffusion to come into play and are therefore of great interest with respect to diffusion theory. Observational anomalies of blue horizontal-branch stars found in globular clusters such as photometric jumps and gaps are reviewed. Recent detections of vertical stratification of elements are also discussed. These results are compared to predictions of atmospheric modeling while including vertical stratification of the elements. The atmospheric structure of these models is calculated self-consistently while taking into account vertical stratification of the elements.

Impact of Proteinuria and Glomerular Filtration Rate on Risk of Thromboembolism in Atrial Fibrillation: the ATRIA Study

PubMed Central

Go, Alan S.; Fang, Margaret C.; Udaltsova, Natalia; Chang, Yuchiao; Pomernacki, Niela K.; Borowsky, Leila; Singer, Daniel E.

2009-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) substantially increases the risk of ischemic stroke but this risk varies among individual patients with AF. Existing risk stratification schemes have limited predictive ability. Chronic kidney disease is a major cardiovascular risk factor, but whether it independently increases the risk for ischemic stroke in persons with AF is unknown. Methods and Results We examined how chronic kidney disease (reduced glomerular filtration rate or proteinuria) affects risk of thromboembolism off anticoagulation in patients with AF. We estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation and proteinuria from urine dipstick results found in laboratory databases. Patient characteristics, warfarin use, and thromboembolic events were ascertained from clinical databases, with validation of thromboembolism by chart review. Results During 33,165 person-years off anticoagulation among 10,908 patients with atrial fibrillation, we observed 676 incident thromboembolic events. After adjustment for known risk factors for stroke and other confounders, proteinuria increased the risk of thromboembolism by 54% (relative risk [RR] 1.54, 1.29 to 1.85) and there was a graded, increased risk of stroke associated with progressively lower level of eGFR compared with eGFR ≥60 (in units of ml/min/1.73 m2): RR 1.16 (95% CI: 0.95−1.40) for eGFR 45−59 and RR 1.39 (95% CI: 1.13−1.71) for eGFR <45 (P=0.0082 for trend). Conclusions . Chronic kidney disease increases the risk of thromboembolism in AF independent of other risk factors. Knowing the level of kidney function and presence of proteinuria may improve risk stratification for decision-making about the use of antithrombotic therapy for stroke prevention in AF. PMID:19255343

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

Role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in clinical stratification in heart failure. A position paper from the Committee on Exercise Physiology and Training of the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology.

PubMed

Corrà, Ugo; Agostoni, Pier Giuseppe; Anker, Stefan D; Coats, Andrew J S; Crespo Leiro, Maria G; de Boer, Rudolph A; Hairola, Veli-Pekka; Hill, Loreena; Lainscak, Mitja; Lund, Lars H; Metra, Marco; Ponikowski, Piotr; Riley, Jillian; Seferović, Petar M; Piepoli, Massimo F

2018-01-01

Traditionally, the main indication for cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in heart failure (HF) was for the selection of candidates to heart transplantation: CPET was mainly performed in middle-aged male patients with HF and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Today, CPET is used in broader patients' populations, including women, elderly, patients with co-morbidities, those with preserved ejection fraction, or left ventricular assistance device recipients, i.e. individuals with different responses to incremental exercise and markedly different prognosis. Moreover, the diagnostic and prognostic utility of symptom-limited CPET parameters derived from submaximal tests is more and more considered, since many patients are unable to achieve maximal aerobic power. Repeated tests are also being used for risk stratification and evaluation of intervention, so that these data are now available. Finally, patients, physicians and healthcare decision makers are increasingly considering how treatments might impact morbidity and quality of life rather than focusing more exclusively on hard endpoints (such as mortality) as was often the case in the past. Innovative prognostic flowcharts, with CPET at their core, that help optimize risk stratification and the selection of management options in HF patients, have been developed. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2017 European Society of Cardiology.

Prognostic stratification improvement by integrating ID1/ID3/IGJ gene expression signature and immunophenotypic profile in adult patients with B-ALL.

PubMed

Cruz-Rodriguez, Nataly; Combita, Alba L; Enciso, Leonardo J; Raney, Lauren F; Pinzon, Paula L; Lozano, Olga C; Campos, Alba M; Peñaloza, Niyireth; Solano, Julio; Herrera, Maria V; Zabaleta, Jovanny; Quijano, Sandra

2017-02-28

Survival of adults with B-Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia requires accurate risk stratification of patients in order to provide the appropriate therapy. Contemporary techniques, using clinical and cytogenetic variables are incomplete for prognosis prediction. To improve the classification of adult patients diagnosed with B-ALL into prognosis groups, two strategies were examined and combined: the expression of the ID1/ID3/IGJ gene signature by RT-PCR and the immunophenotypic profile of 19 markers proposed in the EuroFlow protocol by Flow Cytometry in bone marrow samples. Both techniques were correlated to stratify patients into prognostic groups. An inverse relationship between survival and expression of the three-genes signature was observed and an immunophenotypic profile associated with clinical outcome was identified. Markers CD10 and CD20 were correlated with simultaneous overexpression of ID1, ID3 and IGJ. Patients with simultaneous expression of the poor prognosis gene signature and overexpression of CD10 or CD20, had worse Event Free Survival and Overall Survival than patients who had either the poor prognosis gene expression signature or only CD20 or CD10 overexpressed. By utilizing the combined evaluation of these two immunophenotypic markers along with the poor prognosis gene expression signature, the risk stratification can be significantly strengthened. Further studies including a large number of patients are needed to confirm these findings.

Prognostic Usefulness of Cardiac Stress Test Modalities in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Underwent Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy (from the Basel Asymptomatic High-Risk Diabetics' Outcome Trial).

PubMed

Caobelli, Federico; Haaf, Philip; Chronis, Joannis; Haenny, Gianluca; Brinkert, Miriam; Pfisterer, Matthias E; Zellweger, Michael J

2017-10-01

Our study aimed to assess predictors of the stress test technique used and to evaluate the impact of exercise level achieved on risk stratification in patients with asymptomatic type 2 diabetes without a previous coronary artery disease. Little is known whether co-morbidities of these patients predict the stress technique and whether physical performance provides risk stratification: 400 patients underwent clinical evaluation and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) using physical or pharmacological stress. Physical patients were divided into 2 groups: achieving <6 and ≥6 METs, respectively. The mean follow-up time was 2 years. Major cardiac events (MACEs) included myocardial infarction and/or cardiac death. Independent predictors of pharmacological stress were a body mass index of >30 kg/m 2 (hazard ratio 1.076, 95% confidence interval 1.027 to 1.127, p = 0.002) and a peripheral arterial disease (hazard ratio 2.888, 95% confidence interval 1.446 to 5.769, p = 0.003). Pharmacological patients had more MACE than physical patients (3.2% vs 1.0%, p = 0.03). Patients achieving <6 METs had a similar MACE rate as pharmacological patients (3.0% vs 3.2%, p = not significant) and more MACE than patients achieving ≥6 METs (3.0% vs 0.4%, p = 0.01). In patients achieving <6 METs and in pharmacological patients, MPS added an incremental prognostic value to pretest information (p values for global chi-square 0.012 and 0.04, respectively). In high-risk asymptomatic diabetic patients, co-morbidities were predictive of the stress technique used. Pharmacological patients had more MACE, similar to those unable to achieve 6 METs. MPS provided an incremental prognostic value in pharmacological patients and in patients with <6METs. In contrast, patients who were able to achieve ≥6 METs were at low risk and do not need further risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MULTIGENERATIONAL ASPECTS OF SOCIAL STRATIFICATION: ISSUES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH.

PubMed

Mare, Robert D

2014-03-01

The articles in this special issue show the vitality and progress of research on multigenerational aspects of social mobility, stratification, and inequality. The effects of the characteristics and behavior of grandparents and other kin on the statuses, resources, and positions of their descendants are best viewed in a demographic context. Intergenerational effects work through both the intergenerational associations of socioeconomic characteristics and also differential fertility and mortality. A combined socioeconomic and demographic framework informs a research agenda which addresses the following issues: how generational effects combine with variation in age, period, and cohort within each generation; distinguishing causal relationships across generations from statistical associations; how multigenerational effects vary across socioeconomic hierarchies, including the possibility of stronger effects at the extreme top and bottom; distinguishing between endowments and investments in intergenerational effects; multigenerational effects on associated demographic behaviors and outcomes (especially fertility and mortality); optimal tradeoffs among diverse types of data on multigenerational processes; and the variability across time and place in how kin, education, and other institutions affect stratification.

MULTIGENERATIONAL ASPECTS OF SOCIAL STRATIFICATION: ISSUES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

PubMed Central

Mare, Robert D.

2014-01-01

The articles in this special issue show the vitality and progress of research on multigenerational aspects of social mobility, stratification, and inequality. The effects of the characteristics and behavior of grandparents and other kin on the statuses, resources, and positions of their descendants are best viewed in a demographic context. Intergenerational effects work through both the intergenerational associations of socioeconomic characteristics and also differential fertility and mortality. A combined socioeconomic and demographic framework informs a research agenda which addresses the following issues: how generational effects combine with variation in age, period, and cohort within each generation; distinguishing causal relationships across generations from statistical associations; how multigenerational effects vary across socioeconomic hierarchies, including the possibility of stronger effects at the extreme top and bottom; distinguishing between endowments and investments in intergenerational effects; multigenerational effects on associated demographic behaviors and outcomes (especially fertility and mortality); optimal tradeoffs among diverse types of data on multigenerational processes; and the variability across time and place in how kin, education, and other institutions affect stratification. PMID:24748709

Effects of stratification and temperature on seed germination speed and uniformity in central Oregon ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.).

Treesearch

John C. Weber; Frank C. Sorensen

1990-01-01

Effects of stratification period and incubation temperature on seed germination speed and uniformity were investigated in a bulked seed lot of 200 ponderosa pine trees (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) sampled from 149 locations in central Oregon. Mean rate of embryo development towards germination (l/days to 50 percent germination) and standard...

Germination of dimorphic seeds of Suaeda aralocaspica in response to light and salinity conditions during and after cold stratification

PubMed Central

Wang, Hong-Ling; Tian, Chang-Yan

2017-01-01

Cold stratification is a requirement for seed dormancy breaking in many species, and thus it is one of the important factors for the regulation of timing of germination. However, few studies have examined the influence of various environmental conditions during cold stratification on subsequent germination, and no study has compared such effects on the performance of dormant versus non-dormant seeds. Seeds of halophytes in the cold desert might experience different light and salinity conditions during and after cold stratification. As such, dimorphic seeds (non-dormant brown seeds and black seeds with non-deep physiological dormancy) of Suaeda aralocaspica were cold stratified under different light (12 h light–12 h darkness photoperiod or continuous darkness) or salinity (0, 200 or 1,000 mmol L-1 NaCl) conditions for 20 or 40 days. Then stratified seeds were incubated under different light or salinity conditions at daily (12/12 h) temperature regime of 10:25 °C for 20 days. For brown seeds, cold stratification was also part of the germination period. In contrast, almost no black seeds germinated during cold stratification. The longer the cold stratification, the better the subsequent germination of black seeds, regardless of light or salinity conditions. Light did not influence germination of brown seeds. Germination of cold-stratified black seeds was inhibited by darkness, especially when they were stratified in darkness. With an increase in salinity at the stage of cold stratification or germination, germination percentages of both seed morphs decreased. Combinational pre-treatments of cold stratification and salinity did not increase salt tolerance of dimorphic seeds in germination phase. Thus, light and salinity conditions during cold stratification partly interact with these conditions during germination stage and differentially affect germination of dimorphic seeds of S. aralocaspica. PMID:28828266

The Combined Effect of Ear Lobe Crease and Conventional Risk Factor in the Diagnosis of Angiographically Diagnosed Coronary Artery Disease and the Short-Term Prognosis in Patients Who Underwent Coronary Stents

PubMed Central

Hou, Xuwei; Jiang, Yu; Wang, Ningfu; Shen, Yun; Wang, Xiaoyan; Zhong, Yigang; Xu, Peng; Zhou, Liang

2015-01-01

Abstract The role of diagonal ear lobe crease (DELC) in coronary artery disease (CAD) diagnosis and prognosis remains controversial. In this study, we aimed to assess the combined effect of DELC with other conventional risk factors in the diagnosis and prognosis of CAD in Chinese patients who underwent angiography and coronary stent implantation. The study consisted of 956 consecutive patients who underwent angiography. The DELC was identified as no DELC, unilateral, and bilateral DELC. The conventional risk factors for CAD were recorded. Our dada showed that the overall presence of DELC is associated with CAD risk. Stratification analyses revealed that the diagnostic value of DELC was mostly significant in those with >4 risk factors. Also in patients with >4 risk factors, the presence of bilateral DELC remains to be associated with higher hs-CRP level, higher severity of CAD, and higher possibility of developing major adverse cardiac events after successful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Our study confirmed the relation of DELC with CAD in Chinese patients; more importantly, our data suggest the combination of DELC and CAD risk factors will help to predict the incidence of CAD and may predict the prognosis after successfully PCI. PMID:26131833

Autonomic Nervous System and Stress to Predict Secondary Ischemic Events after Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke: Possible Implications of Heart Rate Variability.

PubMed

Guan, Ling; Collet, Jean-Paul; Mazowita, Garey; Claydon, Victoria E

2018-01-01

Transient ischemic attack (TIA) and minor stroke have high risks of recurrence and deterioration into severe ischemic strokes. Risk stratification of TIA and minor stroke is essential for early effective treatment. Traditional tools have only moderate predictive value, likely due to their inclusion of the limited number of stroke risk factors. Our review follows Hans Selye's fundamental work on stress theory and the progressive shift of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) from adaptation to disease when stress becomes chronic. We will first show that traditional risk factors and acute triggers of ischemic stroke are chronic and acute stress factors or "stressors," respectively. Our first review shows solid evidence of the relationship between chronic stress and stroke occurrence. The stress response is tightly regulated by the ANS whose function can be assessed with heart rate variability (HRV). Our second review demonstrates that stress-related risk factors of ischemic stroke are correlated with ANS dysfunction and impaired HRV. Our conclusions support the idea that HRV parameters may represent the combined effects of all body stressors that are risk factors for ischemic stroke and, thus, may be of important predictive value for the risk of subsequent ischemic events after TIA or minor stroke.

Autonomic Nervous System and Stress to Predict Secondary Ischemic Events after Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke: Possible Implications of Heart Rate Variability

PubMed Central

Guan, Ling; Collet, Jean-Paul; Mazowita, Garey; Claydon, Victoria E.

2018-01-01

Transient ischemic attack (TIA) and minor stroke have high risks of recurrence and deterioration into severe ischemic strokes. Risk stratification of TIA and minor stroke is essential for early effective treatment. Traditional tools have only moderate predictive value, likely due to their inclusion of the limited number of stroke risk factors. Our review follows Hans Selye’s fundamental work on stress theory and the progressive shift of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) from adaptation to disease when stress becomes chronic. We will first show that traditional risk factors and acute triggers of ischemic stroke are chronic and acute stress factors or “stressors,” respectively. Our first review shows solid evidence of the relationship between chronic stress and stroke occurrence. The stress response is tightly regulated by the ANS whose function can be assessed with heart rate variability (HRV). Our second review demonstrates that stress-related risk factors of ischemic stroke are correlated with ANS dysfunction and impaired HRV. Our conclusions support the idea that HRV parameters may represent the combined effects of all body stressors that are risk factors for ischemic stroke and, thus, may be of important predictive value for the risk of subsequent ischemic events after TIA or minor stroke. PMID:29556209

Application of a prediction model for work-related sensitisation in bakery workers.

PubMed

Meijer, E; Suarthana, E; Rooijackers, J; Grobbee, D E; Jacobs, J H; Meijster, T; de Monchy, J G R; van Otterloo, E; van Rooy, F G B G J; Spithoven, J J G; Zaat, V A C; Heederik, D J J

2010-10-01

Identification of work-related allergy, particularly work-related asthma, in a (nationwide) medical surveillance programme among bakery workers requires an effective and efficient strategy. Bakers at high risk of having work-related allergy were indentified by use of a questionnaire-based prediction model for work-related sensitisation. The questionnaire was applied among 5,325 participating bakers. Sequential diagnostic investigations were performed only in those with an elevated risk. Performance of the model was evaluated in 674 randomly selected bakers who participated in the medical surveillance programme and the validation study. Clinical investigations were evaluated in the first 73 bakers referred at high risk. Overall 90% of bakers at risk of having asthma could be identified. Individuals at low risk showed 0.3-3.8% work-related respiratory symptoms, medication use or absenteeism. Predicting flour sensitisation by a simple questionnaire and score chart seems more effective at detecting work-related allergy than serology testing followed by clinical investigation in all immunoglobulin E class II-positive individuals. This prediction based stratification procedure appeared effective in detecting work-related allergy among bakers and can accurately be used for periodic examination, especially in small enterprises where delivery of adequate care is difficult. This approach may contribute to cost reduction.

A two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Amland, Robert C; Lyons, Jason J; Greene, Tracy L; Haley, James M

2015-10-01

To examine the diagnostic accuracy of a two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis. Observational cohort study employing a two-stage sepsis clinical decision support to recognise and stratify patients with sepsis. The stage one component was comprised of a cloud-based clinical decision support with 24/7 surveillance to detect patients at risk of sepsis. The cloud-based clinical decision support delivered notifications to the patients' designated nurse, who then electronically contacted a provider. The second stage component comprised a sepsis screening and stratification form integrated into the patient electronic health record, essentially an evidence-based decision aid, used by providers to assess patients at bedside. Urban, 284 acute bed community hospital in the USA; 16,000 hospitalisations annually. Data on 2620 adult patients were collected retrospectively in 2014 after the clinical decision support was implemented. 'Suspected infection' was the established gold standard to assess clinical decision support clinimetric performance. A sepsis alert activated on 417 (16%) of 2620 adult patients hospitalised. Applying 'suspected infection' as standard, the patient population characteristics showed 72% sensitivity and 73% positive predictive value. A postalert screening conducted by providers at bedside of 417 patients achieved 81% sensitivity and 94% positive predictive value. Providers documented against 89% patients with an alert activated by clinical decision support and completed 75% of bedside screening and stratification of patients with sepsis within one hour from notification. A clinical decision support binary alarm system with cross-checking functionality improves early recognition and facilitates stratification of patients with sepsis.

A Stepwise Integrated Approach to Personalized Risk Predictions in Stage III Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Salvucci, Manuela; Würstle, Maximilian L; Morgan, Clare; Curry, Sarah; Cremona, Mattia; Lindner, Andreas U; Bacon, Orna; Resler, Alexa J; Murphy, Áine C; O'Byrne, Robert; Flanagan, Lorna; Dasgupta, Sonali; Rice, Nadege; Pilati, Camilla; Zink, Elisabeth; Schöller, Lisa M; Toomey, Sinead; Lawler, Mark; Johnston, Patrick G; Wilson, Richard; Camilleri-Broët, Sophie; Salto-Tellez, Manuel; McNamara, Deborah A; Kay, Elaine W; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Van Schaeybroeck, Sandra; Hennessy, Bryan T; Longley, Daniel B; Rehm, Markus; Prehn, Jochen H M

2017-03-01

Purpose: Apoptosis is essential for chemotherapy responses. In this discovery and validation study, we evaluated the suitability of a mathematical model of apoptosis execution (APOPTO-CELL) as a stand-alone signature and as a constituent of further refined prognostic stratification tools. Experimental Design: Apoptosis competency of primary tumor samples from patients with stage III colorectal cancer ( n = 120) was calculated by APOPTO-CELL from measured protein concentrations of Procaspase-3, Procaspase-9, SMAC, and XIAP. An enriched APOPTO-CELL signature (APOPTO-CELL-PC3) was synthesized to capture apoptosome-independent effects of Caspase-3. Furthermore, a machine learning Random Forest approach was applied to APOPTO-CELL-PC3 and available molecular and clinicopathologic data to identify a further enhanced signature. Association of the signature with prognosis was evaluated in an independent colon adenocarcinoma cohort (TCGA COAD, n = 136). Results: We identified 3 prognostic biomarkers ( P = 0.04, P = 0.006, and P = 0.0004 for APOPTO-CELL, APOPTO-CELL-PC3, and Random Forest signatures, respectively) with increasing stratification accuracy for patients with stage III colorectal cancer.The APOPTO-CELL-PC3 signature ranked highest among all features. The prognostic value of the signatures was independently validated in stage III TCGA COAD patients ( P = 0.01, P = 0.04, and P = 0.02 for APOPTO-CELL, APOPTO-CELL-PC3, and Random Forest signatures, respectively). The signatures provided further stratification for patients with CMS1-3 molecular subtype. Conclusions: The integration of a systems-biology-based biomarker for apoptosis competency with machine learning approaches is an appealing and innovative strategy toward refined patient stratification. The prognostic value of apoptosis competency is independent of other available clinicopathologic and molecular factors, with tangible potential of being introduced in the clinical management of patients with stage III colorectal cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 23(5); 1200-12. ©2016 AACR . ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Prevention of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug-induced gastropathy.

PubMed

Schlansky, Barry; Hwang, Joo Ha

2009-01-01

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely used for their analgesic, antipyretic, and antiinflammatory properties, and aspirin is increasingly employed in the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and ischemic stroke. Despite undisputed therapeutic efficacy for these indications, all NSAIDs impart a considerable risk of peptic ulcer disease and upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. A growing body of evidence supports an association between non-aspirin NSAIDs and acute coronary syndromes, and an expanding understanding of the gastroduodenal effects of aspirin, COX-2 selective agents, clopidogrel, and Helicobacter pylori synergism fuel controversies in NSAID use. In this review, we discuss risk stratification of patients taking NSAIDs and the appropriate application of proven gastro-protective strategies to decrease the incidence of gastrointestinal hemorrhage based upon an individualized assessment of risk for potential toxicities. Prevention of NSAID-related gastropathy is an important clinical issue, and therapeutic strategies for both the primary and secondary prevention of adverse events are continually evolving.

Effect of outpatient treatment of febrile neutropenia on the risk threshold for the use of CSF in patients with cancer treated with chemotherapy.

PubMed

Cosler, Leon E; Sivasubramaniam, Visaharan; Agboola, Olayemi; Crawford, Jeffrey; Dale, David; Lyman, Gary H

2005-01-01

Febrile neutropenia (FN) in patients with cancer treated with chemotherapy has traditionally been managed with inpatient broad-spectrum antibiotics until the infection and neutropenia have resolved. A newer strategy is outpatient oral or intravenous antibiotics in selected patients after an initial hospitalization. We sought to determine these costs, both overall and relative to those of traditional management, and the optimal role of prophylactic colony-stimulating factor (CSF) in patients at greatest risk for FN. Existing economic decision models were modified by incorporating a treatment strategy for FN in which patients are classified as high- and low-risk according to criteria described by Talcott. Low-risk patients were assumed to be treated as outpatients. Overall costs with the revised economic model were assessed and sensitivity analyses were performed. The costs of an episode of FN were estimated as 1) no CSF: dollar 13,355; 2) CSF with hospitalization for FN: dollar 8677; and 3) CSF with risk stratification and outpatient management in low-risk patients: dollar 8188. The risk threshold for the cost-effective use of CSF was only slightly lower with outpatient treatment. When all patients with FN are treated as inpatients and the cost of hospitalization is dollar 1750/day the risk threshold for FN at which prophylactic CSF becomes cost-effective is 16%. It is 15% when low-risk patients are treated as outpatients. Outpatient treatment slightly decreases the risk threshold for FN at which prophylactic CSF becomes cost-effective. The limited economic effect of this strategy may be because the patients who were at greatest risk of complications had significantly longer lengths of stay and accounted for most of the hospitalization costs.

Risk stratification for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy: the role of the wearable cardioverter-defibrillator.

PubMed

Klein, Helmut U; Goldenberg, Ilan; Moss, Arthur J

2013-08-01

The benefit of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy depends upon appropriate evaluation of a persisting risk of sudden death and estimation of the patient's overall survival. Assessment of a stable and unchangeable arrhythmogenic substrate is often difficult. Structural abnormality and ventricular dysfunction, the two major risk parameters, may recover, and heart failure symptoms can improve so that ICD therapy may not be indicated. Risk stratification can take time while the patient continues to be at high risk of arrhythmic death, and patients may need temporary bridging by a defibrillator in cases of interrupted ICD therapy. The wearable cardioverter-defibrillator (WCD) combines a long-term electrocardiogram (ECG)-monitoring system with an external automatic defibrillator. The LIfeVest® (ZOLL, Pittsburgh, PA, USA) is composed of a garment, containing two defibrillation patch electrodes on the back, and an elastic belt with a front-defibrillation patch electrode and four non-adhesive ECG electrodes, connected to a monitoring and defibrillation unit. The WCD is a safe and effective tool to terminate ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation events, unless a conscious patient withholds shock delivery. It may be used in patients in the early phase after acute myocardial infarction with poor left ventricular function, after acute coronary revascularization procedures (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (≤35%), in patients with acute heart failure in non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy of uncertain aetiology and prognosis. The WCD may be helpful in subjects with syncope of assumed tachyarrhythmia origin or in patients with inherited arrhythmia syndromes. The WCD may replace ICD implantation in patients waiting for heart transplantation or who need a ventricular-assist device. This review describes the technical details and characteristics of the WCD, discusses its various potential applications, and reports the currently available experience with the wearable defibrillator.

Residential exposure to pesticides and childhood leukaemia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Van Maele-Fabry, Geneviève; Lantin, Anne-Catherine; Hoet, Perrine; Lison, Dominique

2011-01-01

To conduct a systematic review of published studies on the association between residential/household/domestic exposure to pesticides and childhood leukaemia, and to provide a quantitative estimate of the risk. Publications in English were searched in MEDLINE (1966-31 December 2009) and from the reference list of identified publications. Extraction of relative risk (RR) estimates was performed independently by 2 authors using predefined inclusion criteria. Meta-rate ratio estimates (mRR) were calculated according to fixed and random-effect models. Separate analyses were conducted after stratification for exposure time windows, residential exposure location, biocide category and type of leukaemia. RR estimates were extracted from 13 case-control studies published between 1987 and 2009. Statistically significant associations with childhood leukaemia were observed when combining all studies (mRR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.37-2.21). Exposure during and after pregnancy was positively associated with childhood leukaemia, with the strongest risk for exposure during pregnancy (mRR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.92-2.50). Other stratifications showed the greatest risk estimates for indoor exposure (mRR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.45-2.09), for exposure to insecticides (mRR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.33-2.26) as well as for acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia (ANLL) (mRR: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.53-3.45). Outdoor exposure and exposure of children to herbicides (after pregnancy) were not significantly associated with childhood leukaemia (mRR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.97-1.52; mRR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.76-1.76, respectively). Our findings support the assumption that residential pesticide exposure may be a contributing risk factor for childhood leukaemia but available data were too scarce for causality ascertainment. It may be opportune to consider preventive actions, including educational measures, to decrease the use of pesticides for residential purposes and particularly the use of indoor insecticides during pregnancy. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Magnetically Induced Rotating Rayleigh-Taylor Instability.

PubMed

Scase, Matthew M; Baldwin, Kyle A; Hill, Richard J A

2017-03-03

Classical techniques for investigating the Rayleigh-Taylor instability include using compressed gasses 1 , rocketry 2 or linear electric motors 3 to reverse the effective direction of gravity, and accelerate the lighter fluid toward the denser fluid. Other authors e.g. 4 , 5 , 6 have separated a gravitationally unstable stratification with a barrier that is removed to initiate the flow. However, the parabolic initial interface in the case of a rotating stratification imposes significant technical difficulties experimentally. We wish to be able to spin-up the stratification into solid-body rotation and only then initiate the flow in order to investigate the effects of rotation upon the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The approach we have adopted here is to use the magnetic field of a superconducting magnet to manipulate the effective weight of the two liquids to initiate the flow. We create a gravitationally stable two-layer stratification using standard flotation techniques. The upper layer is less dense than the lower layer and so the system is Rayleigh-Taylor stable. This stratification is then spun-up until both layers are in solid-body rotation and a parabolic interface is observed. These experiments use fluids with low magnetic susceptibility, |χ| ~ 10 -6 - 10 -5 , compared to a ferrofluids. The dominant effect of the magnetic field applies a body-force to each layer changing the effective weight. The upper layer is weakly paramagnetic while the lower layer is weakly diamagnetic. When the magnetic field is applied, the lower layer is repelled from the magnet while the upper layer is attracted towards the magnet. A Rayleigh-Taylor instability is achieved with application of a high gradient magnetic field. We further observed that increasing the dynamic viscosity of the fluid in each layer, increases the length-scale of the instability.

Dynamic Risk Stratification in Stage I Papillary Thyroid Cancer Patients Younger Than 45 Years of Age.

PubMed

Sung, Tae-Yon; Cho, Jae Won; Lee, Yu-Mi; Lee, Yi Ho; Kwon, Hyemi; Jeon, Min Ji; Kim, Won Gu; Choi, Young Jun; Song, Dong Eun; Chung, Ki-Wook; Yoon, Jong Ho; Hong, Suck Joon

2017-11-01

This study validated the dynamic risk stratification (DRS) system with regard to its association with structural recurrence and risk factors associated with non-excellent responses in patients <45 years with stage I classical papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). This historical cohort study included 598 patients with stage I classical PTC <45 years of age treated with total thyroidectomy followed by radioactive iodine remnant ablation (n = 440), total thyroidectomy without radioactive iodine remnant ablation (n = 23), and thyroid lobectomy alone (n = 135). The median follow-up period was 123 months. Structural recurrence occurred in 4.2% (n = 18/432) of the patients with an excellent response, 17.1% (18/105) of patients with an indeterminate response, 44.7% (17/38) of patients with a biochemically incomplete response, and 82.6% (19/23) of patients with a structurally incomplete response (p < 0.001) during the follow-up. The disease-free survival curves of each response showed significant differences (p < 0.001). Extensive extrathyroidal extension and extranodal extension were the independent risk factors associated with non-excellent response (p < 0.05). DRS may reduce unnecessary additional treatments by reclassifying initial risk estimates of structural recurrence. Furthermore, applying the risk factors associated with non-excellent response to initial therapy may be a more useful and viable surrogate of the risk for structural recurrence in stage I PTC patients <45 years of age.

High resolution monitoring of episodic stratification events in an enclosed marine system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Timothy; Broszeit, Stefanie; O'Sullivan, Keith P. A.; McAllen, Rob; Davenport, John; Regan, Fiona

2013-05-01

While hypoxic and anoxic environments have existed throughout geological time, their frequency of occurrence in shallow coastal and estuarine areas appears to be increasing. However, few data are available on the physicochemical conditions at the boundary between anoxic and normoxic layers, including the conditions required for both formation and dissipation of stratification. Advances in autonomous environmental sensing technology have produced robust sensors capable of detailed measurements under inhospitable conditions created in such environments. In this study, an autonomous sensor approach was used to compare water column properties above and below the stratification before during and after dissipation of the stratification. Further, an investigation into the effect of the stratification on sedimentation rates of organic and inorganic matter and current speeds is reported here. Lough Hyne, a seasonally stratified temperate marine lake provided favourable conditions for this study. It was shown that temperatures dropped rapidly above the oxy-thermocline while increasing rapidly below the stratification, leading to a mixing of the complete water column. This was reflected in oxygen measurements below the stratification, which rose from anoxia to normoxic conditions over the same time period. During summer, the thermocline formed a barrier to organic matter sedimentation, reducing it significantly when present, while inorganic matter sedimentation was unaffected by the presence of thermocline. It also caused a reduction in current speeds below the thermocline.

Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units.

PubMed

Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph

2007-11-01

Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI < or = 0.9 in 51%. An ESRS > or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

Dynamic TIMI Risk Score for STEMI

PubMed Central

Amin, Sameer T.; Morrow, David A.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M.

2013-01-01

Background Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in‐hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. Methods and Results The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT‐TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON‐TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in‐hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C‐statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C‐statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). Conclusions This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1‐year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions. PMID:23525425

Dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI.

PubMed

Amin, Sameer T; Morrow, David A; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M

2013-01-29

Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in-hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT-TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON-TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in-hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C-statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C-statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1-year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions.

An Asian validation of the TIMI risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Selvarajah, Sharmini; Fong, Alan Yean Yip; Selvaraj, Gunavathy; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Bots, Michiel L

2012-01-01

Risk stratification in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is important, such that the most resource intensive strategy is used to achieve the greatest clinical benefit. This is essential in developing countries with wide variation in health care facilities, scarce resources and increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study sought to validate the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI in a multi-ethnic developing country. Data from a national, prospective, observational registry of acute coronary syndromes was used. The TIMI risk score was evaluated in 4701 patients who presented with STEMI. Model discrimination and calibration was tested in the overall population and in subgroups of patients that were at higher risk of mortality; i.e., diabetics and those with renal impairment. Compared to the TIMI population, this study population was younger, had more chronic conditions, more severe index events and received treatment later. The TIMI risk score was strongly associated with 30-day mortality. Discrimination was good for the overall study population (c statistic 0.785) and in the high risk subgroups; diabetics (c statistic 0.764) and renal impairment (c statistic 0.761). Calibration was good for the overall study population and diabetics, with χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.936 and 0.983 respectively, but poor for those with renal impairment, χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.006. The TIMI risk score is valid and can be used for risk stratification of STEMI patients for better targeted treatment.

Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

PubMed

Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

2010-11-01

US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (<10% risk, 10-20% risk, or >20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (<10% risk of a major coronary event in the next 10 years), 22% as having "moderately high" (10-20%) risk, and 7% as having "high" (>20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

Public health genomics and personalized prevention: lessons from the COGS project.

PubMed

Pashayan, N; Hall, A; Chowdhury, S; Dent, T; Pharoah, P D P; Burton, H

2013-11-01

Using the principles of public health genomics, we examined the opportunities and challenges of implementing personalized prevention programmes for cancer at the population level. Our model-based estimates indicate that polygenic risk stratification can potentially improve the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programmes. However, compared with 'one-size-fits-all' screening programmes, personalized screening adds further layers of complexity to the organization of screening services and raises ethical, legal and social challenges. Before polygenic inheritance is translated into population screening strategy, evidence from empirical research and engagement with and education of the public and the health professionals are needed. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Treatment of uveal melanoma: where are we now?

PubMed Central

Yang, Jessica; Manson, Daniel K.; Marr, Brian P.; Carvajal, Richard D.

2018-01-01

Uveal melanoma, a rare subset of melanoma, is the most common primary intraocular malignancy in adults. Despite effective primary therapy, nearly 50% of patients will develop metastatic disease. Outcomes for those with metastatic disease remain dismal due to a lack of effective therapies. The unique biology and immunology of uveal melanoma necessitates the development of dedicated management and treatment approaches. Ongoing efforts seek to optimize the efficacy of targeted therapy and immunotherapy in both the adjuvant and metastatic setting. This review provides a comprehensive, updated overview of disease biology and risk stratification, the management of primary disease, options for adjuvant therapy, and the current status of treatment strategies for metastatic disease. PMID:29497459

The physical phenotype of frailty for risk stratification of older medical inpatients.

PubMed

Forti, P; Maioli, F; Zagni, E; Lucassenn, T; Montanari, L; Maltoni, B; Luca Pirazzoli, G; Bianchi, G; Zoli, M

2014-12-01

To determine the usefulness of physical phenotype of frailty, cognitive impairment, and serum albumin for risk stratification of elderly medical impatients. Prospective, observational cohort study. A general internal medicine unit of a university hospital in Italy. Inpatients with an average age of 80.8 ± 7.5 yr (N = 470). Frailty was defined using the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Index, a parsimonious version of the physical phenotype (two of the following markers: weight loss, inability to rise five times from a chair, and exhaustion). Two frailty markers from non-physical dimensions were also evaluated: cognitive impairment (Mini-Cog score < 3) and low serum albumin on ward admission (< 3,5 gr/dl). Logistic regression adjusted for preadmission and admission-related confounders was used to investigate whether the physical phenotype of frailty and the two non-physical markers were associated with ward length of stay and unfavorable discharge (death plus any other ward discharge disposition different from direct return home). Areas Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUCs) and Likelihood Ratios (LRs) were used for evaluation of discriminatory ability and clinical usefulness of significant predictors. The physical phenotype of frailty was associated with both study outcomes (p < 0.010) but the association was mainly mediated by chair standing ability. Non-physical markers were associated only with unfavourable discharge (p < 0.001). All of these predictors, either alone or in combination, had poor discriminatory ability (AUCs < 0.70) and poor clinical usefulness (+LRs near 1) for the study outcomes. The physical phenotype of frailty appears of limited clinical use for risk stratification of older medical inpatients. Combination with markers from non-physical dimensions does not improve its prognostic abilities.

Mental health in primary care: an evaluation using the Item Response Theory.

PubMed

Rocha, Hugo André da; Santos, Alaneir de Fátima Dos; Reis, Ilka Afonso; Santos, Marcos Antônio da Cunha; Cherchiglia, Mariângela Leal

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To determine the items of the Brazilian National Program for Improving Access and Quality of Primary Care that better evaluate the capacity to provide mental health care. METHODS This is a cross-sectional study carried out using the Graded Response Model of the Item Response Theory using secondary data from the second cycle of the National Program for Improving Access and Quality of Primary Care, which evaluates 30,523 primary care teams in the period from 2013 to 2014 in Brazil. The internal consistency, correlation between items, and correlation between items and the total score were tested using the Cronbach's alpha, Spearman's correlation, and point biserial coefficients, respectively. The assumptions of unidimensionality and local independence of the items were tested. Word clouds were used as one way to present the results. RESULTS The items with the greatest ability to discriminate were scheduling of the agenda according to risk stratification, keeping of records of the most serious cases of users in psychological distress, and provision of group care. The items that required a higher level of mental health care in the parameter of location were the provision of any type of group care and the provision of educational and mental health promotion activities. Total Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.87. The items that obtained the highest correlation with total score were the recording of the most serious cases of users in psychological distress and scheduling of the agenda according to risk stratification. The final scores obtained oscillated between -2.07 (minimum) and 1.95 (maximum). CONCLUSIONS There are important aspects in the discrimination of the capacity to provide mental health care by primary health care teams: risk stratification for care management, follow-up of the most serious cases, group care, and preventive and health promotion actions.

Prognostic value of predischarge electrocardiographic measurement of infarct size after thrombolysis: insights from GUSTO I Economics and Quality of Life substudy.

PubMed

Barbagelata, Alejandro; Califf, Robert M; Sgarbossa, Elena B; Knight, David; Mark, Daniel B; Granger, Christopher B; Armstrong, Paul W; Elizari, Marcelo; Birnbaum, Yochai; Grinfeld, Liliana R; Ohman, E Magnus; Wagner, Galen S

2004-11-01

Current methods for risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction (MI) include several noninvasive studies. In this cost-containment era, the development of low-cost means should be encouraged. We assessed the ability of an electrocardiogram (ECG) MI-sizing score to predict outcomes in patients enrolled in the Economics and Quality of Life (EQOL) sub study of the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue plasminogen activator for Occluded coronary arteries -I (GUSTO-I) trial. We classified patients by electrocardiographic Selvester QRS score at hospital discharge: those with a score 0-9 versus > or =10. Endpoints were 30-day and 1-year mortality, resource use, and quality-of-life measures. Patients with a QRS score <10 were well-matched with those with QRS score > or =10 with the exception of a trend to more anterior MI in the higher scored group. Patients with QRS score > or =10 had increased risk of death at 30-days (8.9% vs. 2.9% P < .001), and this difference persisted at 1 year (12.6% vs. 5.4%, P = .001). Recurrent chest pain, use of angiography, and angioplasty were similar during follow-up. However, there was a trend toward less coronary bypass surgery in patients with a QRS score > or =10. Readmission rates were higher at 30 days but similar at 1 year. Stratification of patients after acute MI by a simple measure of MI size identifies populations with different long-term prognoses; patients with a QRS score > or =10 (approximately 30% of the left ventricle infarcted) at discharge have poorer outcomes in both the short- and long-term. The standard 12-lead ECG provides a simple, economical means of risk stratification at discharge.

Effects of warm water inflows on the dispersion of pollutants in small reservoirs.

PubMed

Palancar, María C; Aragón, José M; Sánchez, Fernando; Gil, Roberto

2006-11-01

The effects of the warm water discharged by a nuclear power plant (NPP) into a small reservoir are studied. A case study is presented (José Cabrera NPP-Zorita Hidráulica Reservoir) with experimental data of the reservoir stratification and predicted data of the dispersion of radioactive pollutants from operative or accidental releases. The vertical and longitudinal temperature profiles, electrical conductivity and transparency of the reservoir water were measured for an annual cycle. The results indicate that the continuous warm water discharge from the NPP causes permanent and artificial reservoir stratification. The stratification is significant within 1500 m upstream and 1000 m downstream from the warm water outfall. The pollutant dispersion has been predicted by using a flow model based on N(T) perfect-mixing compartments in series with feedback. The model parameter, N(T), is calculated from the longitudinal diffusion coefficient. The prediction of pollutant dispersion by means of this model shows that the stratification slows down the vertical mixing in the whole water body, and reduces the reservoir volume that is effective for the dilution and dispersion of pollutants. This means that, in the case of a radioactive pollutant release, the reservoir radioactivity level could increase significantly.

The Indiana Chronic Disease Management Program

PubMed Central

Rosenman, Marc B; Holmes, Ann M; Ackermann, Ronald T; Murray, Michael D; Doebbeling, Caroline Carney; Katz, Barry; Li, Jingjin; Zillich, Alan; Prescott, Victoria M; Downs, Stephen M; Inui, Thomas S

2006-01-01

The Indiana Chronic Disease Management Program (ICDMP) is intended to improve the quality and cost-effectiveness of care for Medicaid members with congestive heart failure (chronic heart failure), diabetes, asthma, and other conditions. The ICDMP is being assembled by Indiana Medicaid primarily from state and local resources and has seven components: (1) identification of eligible participants to create regional registries, (2) risk stratification of eligible participants, (3) nurse care management for high-risk participants, (4) telephonic intervention for all participants, (5) an Internet-based information system, (6) quality improvement collaboratives for primary care practices, and (7) program evaluation. The evaluation involves a randomized controlled trial in two inner-city group practices, as well as a statewide observational design. This article describes the ICDMP, highlights challenges, and discusses approaches to its evaluation. PMID:16529571

The Indiana Chronic Disease Management Program.

PubMed

Rosenman, Marc B; Holmes, Ann M; Ackermann, Ronald T; Murray, Michael D; Doebbeling, Caroline Carney; Katz, Barry; Li, Jingjin; Zillich, Alan; Prescott, Victoria M; Downs, Stephen M; Inui, Thomas S

2006-01-01

The Indiana Chronic Disease Management Program (ICDMP) is intended to improve the quality and cost-effectiveness of care for Medicaid members with congestive heart failure (chronic heart failure), diabetes, asthma, and other conditions. The ICDMP is being assembled by Indiana Medicaid primarily from state and local resources and has seven components: (1) identification of eligible participants to create regional registries, (2) risk stratification of eligible participants, (3) nurse care management for high-risk participants, (4) telephonic intervention for all participants, (5) an Internet-based information system, (6) quality improvement collaboratives for primary care practices, and (7) program evaluation. The evaluation involves a randomized controlled trial in two inner-city group practices, as well as a statewide observational design. This article describes the ICDMP, highlights challenges, and discusses approaches to its evaluation.

Retrospective evaluation of a national guideline to prevent neonatal hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Annett Helleskov; Wehberg, Sonja; Fenger-Groen, Jesper; Christesen, Henrik Thybo

2017-10-01

Hypoglycemia is common in neonates and may cause adverse neurological outcomes. Guidelines should aim to prevent repeated hypoglycemic episodes in risk groups, but they are not usually stratified according to the severity of hypoglycemia risk, which may lead to inappropriate and redundant interventions. We evaluated the effect of a national prevention guideline stratified according to mild, moderate, and severe risks of hypoglycemia. From national registers, a population cohort of 22,725 neonates was identified retrospectively before and after implementation of a national guideline. Of these, 1900 had World Health Organization International Classification of Diseases 10 discharge diagnoses of hypoglycemia. Diagnoses indicating hypoglycemia risk [small/large for gestational age (SGA/LGA), asphyxia, prematurity, maternal insulin-treated diabetes mellitus] were recorded. Neonatal ward files were evaluated to validate hypoglycemia diagnoses. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated, adjusting for sex, parity, SGA, LGA, preterm birth, and asphyxia, where relevant. Primiparity and male sex were associated independently with hypoglycemia diagnosis [aORs, 1.29 (1.17-1.42) and 1.14 (1.03-1.26), respectively]. Overall incidence of hypoglycemia at discharge decreased from 9.4% to 5.5% after guideline implementation [aOR change , 0.57 (0.50-0.64)]. Overall incidence of validated hypoglycemia decreased from 2.1% to 1.2% [aOR 0.59 (0.46-0.77), p<0.001]. By risk group, the hypoglycemia incidence decreased from 30.5% to 18.6% [aOR 0.52 (0.36-0.75)] among SGA neonates, from 25.8% to 16.4% [aOR 0.57 (0.42-0.76)] among preterm infants, and from 27.4% to 16.6% [aOR 0.63 (0.34-0.83)] among those with asphyxia. LGA neonates showed a decreased incidence in obstetric wards only. No significant change was observed for the diabetes group. Stratification of hypoglycemia risk in a hypoglycemia prevention guideline was followed by decreased estimated hypoglycemia incidence, but no causative conclusion could be drawn. Prospective studies with risk stratification for hypoglycemia prevention are encouraged. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Strategies for reducing the treatment-related physical burden of childhood acute myeloid leukaemia - a review.

PubMed

Hasle, Henrik; Kaspers, Gertjan J L

2017-01-01

Over the last four decades the survival of paediatric patients with acute myeloid leukaemia has gradually increased to 70% in high-income countries. The therapy is very intensive and associated with many acute and long-term side effects. The early death rate has been reduced to 1-4%. The acute toxicity is a limiting factor for improving survival in low-income countries. Transplant is associated with more endocrinological late effects while cardiotoxicity is more common after relapse. Reducing the physical costs of therapy without jeopardizing survival may be accomplished by optimal supportive care, less cardiotoxic anthracyclines, less consolidation courses and strict indications for stem cell transplantation. Analysing scenarios with different frequency of transplantation in first complete remission show similar overall survival rates, indicating that almost all patients can be spared the procedure in first remission. Reducing relapse risk is an effective way of reducing toxicity and more targeted therapy and improved risk group stratifications are needed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of Human Papillomavirus Detection by Aptima HPV and cobas HPV Tests in a Population of Women Referred for Colposcopy following Detection of Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance by Pap Cytology

PubMed Central

Castle, Philip E.; Eaton, Barbara; Reid, Jennifer; Dockter, Janel

2015-01-01

Few studies have compared the cobas HPV test to the Aptima HPV assay (AHPV) and the Aptima HPV 16 18/45 genotype assay (AHPV GT) for high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) detection, clinical performance in detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) or more severe (CIN2+) diagnoses, and risk stratification by partial HPV genotyping. The cobas HPV test is a DNA test that separately and concurrently detects HPV16, HPV18, and a pool of 12 other hrHPV types. AHPV is an RNA test for a pool of 14 hrHPV genotypes, and AHPV GT is an RNA test run on AHPV-positive results to detect HPV16 separately from HPV18 and HPV45, which are detected together. In a population of patients (n = 988) referred for colposcopy because of a cervical Pap cytology result of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US), a cervical scrape specimen was taken, placed into a ThinPrep Pap test vial containing PreservCyt liquid cytology medium, and tested in a blinded fashion with cobas and AHPV and with AHPV GT for AHPV-positive results. The final diagnoses were based on a consensus panel review of the biopsy specimen histology. AHPV and cobas were equally sensitive for CIN2+ diagnoses (89.4% each; P = 1.000), and AHPV was more specific than cobas (63.1% versus 59.3%; P ≤ 0.001). The percent total agreement, percent positive agreement, and kappa value were 90.9%, 81.1%, and 0.815, respectively. Risk stratification using partial HPV genotyping was similar for the two assays. AHPV and AHPV GT had similar sensitivity and risk stratification to cobas HPV, but they were more specific than cobas HPV. PMID:25653409

Value of Donor–Specific Anti–HLA Antibody Monitoring and Characterization for Risk Stratification of Kidney Allograft Loss

PubMed Central

Viglietti, Denis; Loupy, Alexandre; Vernerey, Dewi; Bentlejewski, Carol; Gosset, Clément; Aubert, Olivier; Duong van Huyen, Jean-Paul; Jouven, Xavier; Legendre, Christophe; Glotz, Denis; Zeevi, Adriana

2017-01-01

The diagnosis system for allograft loss lacks accurate individual risk stratification on the basis of donor–specific anti–HLA antibody (anti-HLA DSA) characterization. We investigated whether systematic monitoring of DSA with extensive characterization increases performance in predicting kidney allograft loss. This prospective study included 851 kidney recipients transplanted between 2008 and 2010 who were systematically screened for DSA at transplant, 1 and 2 years post-transplant, and the time of post–transplant clinical events. We assessed DSA characteristics and performed systematic allograft biopsies at the time of post–transplant serum evaluation. At transplant, 110 (12.9%) patients had DSAs; post-transplant screening identified 186 (21.9%) DSA-positive patients. Post–transplant DSA monitoring improved the prediction of allograft loss when added to a model that included traditional determinants of allograft loss (increase in c statistic from 0.67; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.62 to 0.73 to 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.77). Addition of DSA IgG3 positivity or C1q binding capacity increased discrimination performance of the traditional model at transplant and post-transplant. Compared with DSA mean fluorescence intensity, DSA IgG3 positivity and C1q binding capacity adequately reclassified patients at lower or higher risk for allograft loss at transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.67; P<0.001 and 0.93; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.36; P<0.001, respectively) and post-transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.62; P<0.001 and 0.95; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.28; P<0.001, respectively). Thus, pre– and post–transplant DSA monitoring and characterization may improve individual risk stratification for kidney allograft loss. PMID:27493255

Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome: a single exercise stress test might be misleading.

PubMed

Salavitabar, Arash; Silver, Eric S; Liberman, Leonardo

2017-05-01

Risk stratification of patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome for sudden death is a complex process, particularly in understanding the utility of the repeat exercise stress test. We report a case of an 18-year-old patient who was found to have a high-risk pathway by both invasive and exercise stress testing after an initial exercise stress test showing beat-to-beat loss of pre-excitation.

New Insight Into the Biology, Risk Stratification, and Targeted Treatment of Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

PubMed

Haider, Mintallah; Duncavage, Eric J; Afaneh, Khalid F; Bejar, Rafael; List, Alan F

2017-01-01

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), somatic mutations occur in five major categories: RNA splicing, DNA methylation, activated cell signaling, myeloid transcription factors, and chromatin modifiers. Although many MDS cases harbor more than one somatic mutation, in general, there is mutual exclusivity of mutated genes within a class. In addition to the prognostic significance of individual somatic mutations, more somatic mutations in MDS have been associated with poor prognosis. Prognostic assessment remains a critical component of the personalization of care for patient with MDS because treatment is highly risk adapted. Multiple methods for risk stratification are available with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R), currently considered the gold standard. Increasing access to myeloid gene panels and greater evidence for the diagnostic and predictive value of somatic mutations will soon make sequencing part of the standard evaluation of patients with MDS. In the absence of formal guidelines for their prognostic use, well-validated mutations can still refine estimates of risk made with the IPSS-R. Not only are somatic gene mutations advantageous in understanding the biology of MDS and prognosis, they also offer potential as biomarkers and targets for the treatment of patients with MDS. Examples include deletion 5q, spliceosome complex gene mutations, and TP53 mutations.

PAS positivity of erythroid precursor cells is associated with a poor prognosis in newly diagnosed myelodysplastic syndrome patients.

PubMed

Masuda, Kenta; Shiga, Shuichi; Kawabata, Hiroshi; Takaori-Kondo, Akifumi; Ichiyama, Satoshi; Kamikubo, Yasuhiko

2018-07-01

Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is a group of clonal stem cell disorders characterized by hematopoietic insufficiency. The accurate risk stratification of patients with MDS is essential for selection of appropriate therapies. We herein conducted a retrospective cohort study to examine the prognostic value of periodic acid-Schiff (PAS) reaction-positive erythroblasts in MDS patients. We examined the PAS positivity of the bone marrow erythroblasts of 144 patients newly diagnosed with MDS; 26 (18.1%) of them had PAS-positive erythroblasts, whereas 118 (81.9%) did not. The PAS-positive group showed significantly poorer karyotypes as defined in the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) and higher scores in age-adjusted IPSS-R (IPSS-RA) than the PAS-negative group. Overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) were also significantly shorter in the PAS-positive group than in the PAS-negative group. Similar results were obtained when only high- and very high risk groups were analyzed using IPSS-RA. This retrospective study suggested that the PAS positivity of erythroblasts is an additional prognostic factor combined with other risk scores for OS and LFS in MDS, and our results may contribute to improved clinical decision-making and rapid risk stratification.

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

The Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS) - an easy executable risk score for suspected paediatric patients with Marfan syndrome.

PubMed

Mueller, Goetz C; Stark, Veronika; Steiner, Kristoffer; Weil, Jochen; von Kodolitsch, Yskert; Mir, Thomas S

2013-02-01

Due to age-dependent manifestations, diagnosis of Marfan syndrome (MFS) in children and adolescents is sophisticated. Although revised Ghent criteria is a major step forward, its utility in children is still restricted due to expensive and technically advanced diagnostics. As early diagnosis submits long-term benefits concerning prognosis, the need of an appropriate diagnostic tool for risk stratification of suspected paediatric patients with Marfan is justified. Sixty paediatric patients with Marfan were subject to a standardized diagnostic programme. All clinical symptoms of the revised Ghent nosology were analysed concerning age at first clinical manifestation, prevalence and likelihood ratio for MFS. Symptoms with early onset, high prevalence and high positive likelihood ratio were identified and combined for a risk score called Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS). Three risk categories for suspicion of Marfan syndrome were developed. Finally, the Kid-SMS was operated in 130 paediatric patients with suspected MFS. Kid-SMS identified significantly more suspected patients with Marfan compared with Ghent nosology, revised Ghent and genetics alone without oversensitivity. Whereas diagnosis of MFS in childhood is sophisticated, Kid-SMS is a useful tool for risk stratification of suspected paediatric patients with Marfan by easy executable diagnostics, especially for paediatricians and paediatric cardiologists. ©2012 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica ©2012 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Recent Advances in the Biology and Treatment of T Cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia.

PubMed

Hefazi, Mehrdad; Litzow, Mark R

2018-06-15

This article provides an overview of the current knowledge regarding the biology and treatment of T cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) and highlights the most recent findings in this field over the past 5 years. Remarkable progress has been made in the genomic landscape of T-ALL over the past few years. The discovery of activating mutations of NOTCH1 and FBXW7 in a majority of patients has been a seminal observation, with several early phase clinical trials currently exploring these as potential therapeutic targets. Characterization of early T cell precursor ALL, incorporation of minimal residual disease assessment into therapeutic protocols, and use of pediatric-intensive regimens along with judicious use of allogeneic HCT have significantly improved risk stratification and treatment outcomes. Improved risk stratification and the use of novel targeted therapies based on recent genomic discoveries are expected to change the therapeutic landscape of T-ALL and hopefully improve the outcomes of this historically poor prognosis disease.

Developing a risk stratification tool for audit of outcome after surgery for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Tighe, David F; Thomas, Alan J; Sassoon, Isabel; Kinsman, Robin; McGurk, Mark

2017-07-01

Patients treated surgically for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) represent a heterogeneous group. Adjusting for patient case mix and complexity of surgery is essential if reporting outcomes represent surgical performance and quality of care. A case note audit totaling 1075 patients receiving 1218 operations done for HNSCC in 4 cancer networks was completed. Logistic regression, decision tree analysis, an artificial neural network, and Naïve Bayes Classifier were used to adjust for patient case-mix using pertinent preoperative variables. Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34%-51%; P < .015) between units. The predictive models allowed risk stratification. The artificial neural network demonstrated the best predictive performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.85). Early postoperative complications are a measurable outcome that can be used to benchmark surgical performance and quality of care. Surgical outcome reporting in national clinical audits should be taking account of the patient case mix. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Management of advanced NK/T-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Tse, Eric; Kwong, Yok-Lam

2014-09-01

NK/T-cell lymphomas are aggressive malignancies, and the outlook is poor when conventional anthracycline-containing regimens designed for B-cell lymphomas are used. With the advent of L-asparaginase-containing regimens, treatment outcome has significantly improved. L-asparaginase-containing regimens are now considered the standard in the management of NK/T-cell lymphomas. In advanced diseases, however, outcome remains unsatisfactory, with durable remission achieved in only about 50% of cases. Stratification of patients with advanced NK/T-cell lymphomas is needed, so that poor-risk patients can be given additional therapy to improve outcome. Conventional presentation parameters are untested and appear inadequate for prognostication when L-asparaginase-containing regimens are used. Recent evidence suggests that dynamic factors during treatment and interim assessment, including Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA quantification and positron emission tomography computed tomography findings, are more useful in patient stratification. The role of high-dose chemotherapy and haematopoietic stem cell transplantation requires evaluation in an overall risk-adapted treatment algorithm.

Genetic causes of sudden cardiac death in children: inherited arrhythmogenic diseases.

PubMed

Vacanti, Gaetano; Maragna, Riccardo; Priori, Silvia G; Mazzanti, Andrea

2017-10-01

In this chapter we will discuss the most recent and relevant evidences published in the field of inherited arrhythmogenic disorders, focusing on the so called 'channelopathies' that are associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD) in children: long QT syndrome (LQTS), short QT syndrome (SQTS), Brugada syndrome (BrS), and catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT). We will discuss the latest diagnostic criteria for channelopathies released by the European Society of Cardiology, the new data on BrS in children and the recent evidence supporting a genotype-specific therapy for LQTS type 3. Moreover, we will present further insights into the risk stratification of the children affected by LQTS, analyzing the role of imaging for the prediction of life-threatening arrhythmias. In addition, we will offer a perspective on how to deal with genetic results in families affected by SCD at very young ages. The selected publications will aid pediatricians in their clinical work when managing little patients with inherited arrhythmias, providing the most recent information for diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.

Novel Biomarkers for Predicting Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Diabetes.

PubMed

Retnakaran, Ravi

2018-05-01

It is generally acknowledged that patients with diabetes comprise a high-risk population for the development of cardiovascular disease. However, it is perhaps less well recognized that there actually exists considerable heterogeneity in vascular risk within this patient population, with a sizable subset of individuals seemingly at low risk for major cardiovascular events despite the presence of diabetes. Because traditional clinical risk calculators have shown wide variability in their performance in the setting of diabetes, there exists a need for additional risk predictors in this patient population. In this context, there has been considerable interest in the potential utility of circulating biomarkers as clinical tools that might facilitate risk stratification and thereby guide therapeutic and preventative decision-making. Coupled with the current era of dedicated cardiovascular outcome trials in type 2 diabetes, this interest has spawned a growing literature of recent studies that evaluated potential biomarkers. To date, these studies have identified N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponins, and growth differentiation factor-15 as cardiovascular biomarkers of particular potential in patients with diabetes. Furthermore, recognizing the potential benefit of collective consideration of different biomarkers reflecting distinct pathophysiologic processes that might contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease, there is emerging emphasis on the evaluation of combinations of biomarkers for optimal risk prediction. Although not currently ready for clinical practice, this rapidly-growing topic of biomarker research might ultimately facilitate the goal of individualized risk stratification and thereby enable truly personalized management of diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

PubMed

Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

2016-08-01

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

Degree of Agreement between Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Tools.

PubMed

Garcia, Guilherme Thomé; Stamm, Ana Maria Nunes de Faria; Rosa, Ariel Córdova; Marasciulo, Antônio Carlos; Marasciulo, Rodrigo Conill; Battistella, Cristian; Remor, Alexandre Augusto de Costa

2017-05-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Brazil, and primary prevention care may be guided by risk stratification tools. The Framingham (FRS) and QRISK-2 (QRS) risk scores estimate 10-year overall cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic individuals, but the instrument of choice may lead to different therapeutic strategies. To evaluate the degree of agreement between FRS and QRS in 10-year overall cardiovascular risk stratification in disease-free individuals. Cross-sectional, observational, descriptive and analytical study in a convenience sample of 74 individuals attending the outpatient care service of a university hospital in Brazil between January 2014 and January 2015. After application of FRS and QRS, patients were classified in low/moderate risk (< 20%) or high risk (≥ 20%). The proportion of individuals classified as at high risk was higher in FRS than in QRS (33.7% vs 21.6%). A synergic effect of male gender with systemic arterial hypertension was observed in both tools, and with for geriatric age group in QRS (p < 0.05) in high-risk stratum. The Kappa index was 0.519 (95%CI = 0.386-0.652; p < 0.001) between both instruments. There was a moderate agreement between FRS and QRS in estimating 10-year overall cardiovascular risk. The risk scores used in this study can identify synergism between variables, and their behavior is influenced by the population in which it was derived. It is important to recognize the need for calibrating risk scores for the Brazilian population. A doença cardiovascular (DCV) é a principal causa de morbimortalidade no Brasil, e a prevenção primária pode ser direcionada com ferramentas que estratificam o risco. Os escores de Framingham (ERF) e QRISK-2 (ERQ) estimam o risco cardiovascular (RCV) global em 10 anos em indivíduos assintomáticos, mas a escolha do instrumento pode implicar em terapêuticas distintas. Observar o grau de concordância entre o ERF e o ERQ, na estratificação do risco cardiovascular global em 10 anos, nos indivíduos livres da doença. Estudo transversal, observacional, descritivo e analítico, com uma amostra de conveniência de 74 indivíduos, atendidos em um ambulatório de ensino de um hospital universitário brasileiro, no sul do país, de janeiro de 2014 a janeiro de 2015. O ERF e o ERQ foram aplicados nos pacientes, que foram classificados em baixo/moderado (< 20%) ou alto risco (≥ 20%). A proporção de indivíduos classificados no estrato de alto risco foi superior no ERF que no ERQ (33,7% vs 21,6%), sendo identificado efeito sinérgico do gênero masculino com hipertensão arterial sistêmica nas duas ferramentas, e com faixa etária geriátrica no ERQ (p < 0,05) nesse estrato de risco. O índice de concordância Kappa entre os dois escores foi igual a 0,519 (IC95% = 0,386-0,652; p < 0,001). Houve concordância moderada entre o ERF e o ERQ, na estimativa de RCV global em 10 anos. Os escores utilizados podem identificar sinergismo entre as variáveis, e têm comportamento influenciado pela população na qual foram originados. É importante reconhecer a necessidade de escores calibrados para a população brasileira.

Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

2017-07-01

OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently produced complication predictions that underestimated complication occurrence: 3.4% in the low-risk group (observed 12.6%), 5.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 34.5%), and 12.5% in the high-risk group (observed 38.8%). The RAT was more accurate than the ACS NSQIP calculator (p = 0.0018). CONCLUSIONS While the RAT and ACS NSQIP calculator were both able to identify patients more likely to experience complications following spine surgery, both have substantial room for improvement. Risk stratification is feasible in spine surgery procedures; currently used measures have low accuracy.

Microalbuminuria could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

PubMed

Elyas, Salim; Shore, Angela C; Kingwell, Hayley; Keenan, Samantha; Boxall, Leigh; Stewart, Jane; James, Martin A; Strain, William David

2016-09-01

Transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and minor strokes are important risk factors for recurrent strokes. Current stroke risk prediction scores such as ABCD2, although widely used, lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. Elevated urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular disease, stroke, and mortality. We explored the role of microalbuminuria (using albumin creatinine ratio (ACR)) in predicting recurrence risk in patients with TIA and minor stroke. Urinary ACR was measured on a spot sample in 150 patients attending a daily stroke clinic with TIA or minor stroke. Patients were followed up at day 7, 30, and 90 to determine recurrent stroke, cardiovascular events, or death. Eligible patients had a carotid ultrasound Doppler investigation. High-risk patients were defined as those who had an event within 90 days or had >50% internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. Fourteen (9.8%) recurrent events were reported by day 90 including two deaths. Fifteen patients had severe ICA stenosis. In total, 26 patients were identified as high risk. These patients had a higher frequency of previous stroke or hypercholesterolemia compared to low-risk patients (P = 0.04). ACR was higher in high-risk patients (3.4 [95% CI 2.2-5.2] vs. 1.7 [1.5-2.1] mg/mmol, P = 0.004), independent of age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes, and previous stroke. An ACR greater than 1.5 mg/mmol predicted high-risk patients (Cox proportional hazard ratio 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-9.5, P = 0.01). After TIA or minor stroke, a higher ACR predicted recurrent events and significant ICA stenosis. Incorporation of urinary ACR from a spot sample in the acute setting could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

Major Depressive Disorder and Bipolar Disorder Predispose Youth to Accelerated Atherosclerosis and Early Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Goldstein, Benjamin I; Carnethon, Mercedes R; Matthews, Karen A; McIntyre, Roger S; Miller, Gregory E; Raghuveer, Geetha; Stoney, Catherine M; Wasiak, Hank; McCrindle, Brian W

2015-09-08

In the 2011 "Expert Panel on Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents," several medical conditions among youth were identified that predispose to accelerated atherosclerosis and early cardiovascular disease (CVD), and risk stratification and management strategies for youth with these conditions were elaborated. Major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD) among youth satisfy the criteria set for, and therefore merit inclusion among, Expert Panel tier II moderate-risk conditions. The combined prevalence of MDD and BD among adolescents in the United States is ≈10%, at least 10 times greater than the prevalence of the existing moderate-risk conditions combined. The high prevalence of MDD and BD underscores the importance of positioning these diseases alongside other pediatric diseases previously identified as moderate risk for CVD. The overall objective of this statement is to increase awareness and recognition of MDD and BD among youth as moderate-risk conditions for early CVD. To achieve this objective, the primary specific aims of this statement are to (1) summarize evidence that MDD and BD are tier II moderate-risk conditions associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and early CVD and (2) position MDD and BD as tier II moderate-risk conditions that require the application of risk stratification and management strategies in accordance with Expert Panel recommendations. In this scientific statement, there is an integration of the various factors that putatively underlie the association of MDD and BD with CVD, including pathophysiological mechanisms, traditional CVD risk factors, behavioral and environmental factors, and psychiatric medications. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Clinical severity score system in dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease.

PubMed

López-Alvarez, J; Elliott, J; Pfeiffer, D; Chang, Y-M; Mattin, M; Moonarmart, W; Hezzell, M J; Boswood, A

2015-01-01

Several risk factors already have been determined for dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). Risk factors often have been considered in isolation and have not always taken into account additional information provided by the history and physical examination (PE). Data obtained from history and PE of dogs with DMVD provide prognostic information and can be used for risk stratification. Client-owned dogs (n = 244) with DMVD recruited from first opinion practice. Prospective longitudinal follow-up of dogs with DMVD. History and PE data were obtained at 6-month intervals and analyzed with time-dependent Cox models to derive relative risk of cardiac death. Independent hazard ratios were used to derive a clinical severity score (CSS), the prognostic value of which was evaluated by analyzing the median survival times for different risk groups and ROC analysis. Analysis of the progression of CSS over time also was undertaken. History of cough, exercise intolerance, decreased appetite, breathlessness (difficulty breathing) and syncope with PE findings of heart murmur intensity louder than III/VI and absence of respiratory sinus arrhythmia were independently associated with outcome and allowed development of the CSS. Clinical severity score distinguished groups of dogs with significantly different outcomes. Routinely obtained clinical findings allow risk stratification of dogs with DMVD. Results of ancillary diagnostic tests may be complementary to history and PE findings and always should be interpreted in conjunction with these findings. Copyright © 2015 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Advantages of early diagnosis of diabetic neuropathy in the prevention of diabetic foot ulcers.

PubMed

Sanz-Corbalán, Irene; Lázaro-Martínez, José Luis; García-Morales, Esther; Molines-Barroso, Raúl; Álvaro-Afonso, Francisco; García-Álvarez, Yolanda

2017-12-26

to evaluate the utility of the sudomotor function test (SFT) as a clinical tool in the Risk Stratification System of diabetic patients and to demonstrate the earlier detection of the risk of developing diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) compared to the standard clinical tests. prospective follow-up study on 263 patients enrolled consecutively over 3.5 years. Diabetic patients without active DFU were classified according to the International Working Group Risk Stratification System (RSS) and categorized according to the results of the Semmes-Wenstein Monofilament (SWM) and biothesiometer measurements or the SFT. The main outcome evaluated was the development of DFU. median follow-up was 42 [38-44] months. Sixty patients (22.8%) developed DFU after a median of 6.2 [3-17] months. Ten patients that were included in the no-risk group (group 0) based on the SWM and biothesiometer results developed DFU. Thus the sensitivity of this approach was 83.33% and the specificity was 50.47%. Based on the SFT results, all patients that developed DFU were included in the correct risk group. This approach had 100% sensitivity and 31.53% specificity. Regarding the diagnostic accuracy of the two Methods, the respective AUC values were 0.776 (95% CI 0.702-0.849) and 0.816 (95% CI 0.757-0.874). SFT improved RSS in diabetic patients in a specialized diabetic foot unit. SFT categorized patients correctly according to the risk of developing DFU. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Dynamics of Social Stratification in Contemporary Asian Societies. Asian Studies Module.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inyang, Ambrose

This curriculum module is designed to provide potential users with access to pedagogic techniques and scholarly works on the subject of social stratification in contemporary Asian societies that can be effectively integrated into appropriate sociology and other relevant courses. First, a set of goals and learning objectives is presented in an…

Stratification, Elaboration and Formalisation of Design Documents: Effects on the Production of Instructional Materials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boot, Eddy W.; Nelson, Jon; van Merrienboer, Jeroen J. G.; Gibbons, Andrew S.

2007-01-01

Designers and producers of instructional materials lack a common design language. As a result, producers have difficulties translating design documents into technical specifications. The 3D-model is introduced to improve the stratification, elaboration and formalisation of design documents. It is hypothesised that producers working with improved…

USA Stratified Monopoly: A Simulation Game about Social Class Stratification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fisher, Edith M.

2008-01-01

Effectively teaching college students about social class stratification is a difficult challenge. Explanations for this difficulty tend to focus on the students who often react with resistance, paralysis, or rage. Sociologists have been using games and simulations as alternative methods for several decades to teach about these sensitive subjects.…

Sycamore Seed Germination: The Effects of Provenance, Stratification, Temperature, and Parent Tree

Treesearch

Charles D. Webb; Robert E. Farmer

1968-01-01

Various stratification periods and germination temperatures were applied to sycamore seed collected along the Chattahoochee River from north Georgia to west Florida. Results showed that percent and speed of germination were greater for seed from southern than from northern provenances. Percent and speed of germination increased as temperature increased. The...

[Exercise stress test and dobutamine stress echocardiography for the prognostic stratification after uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction].

PubMed

Vitiello, Nicola; Cirillo, Raffaele; Granato, Luigi; Coppola, Vincenzo; di Palma, Francesco

2007-05-01

Exercise stress test and dobutamine stress echocardiography are usually performed early after an uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction in the prognostic stratification of patients to define the optimal diagnostic and therapeutic procedure. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the association of an imaging test could increase exercise test capability to identify patients with residual ischemia and patients at high risk of events in the follow-up. Four hundred and forty-two consecutive patients underwent exercise stress testing and dobutamine stress echocardiography before discharge and subsequently coronary angiography within 30 days. In case of submaximal negative result at the exercise test, this was repeated 20 days after discharge. The follow-up lasted 26.8 +/- 9 months. The endpoints were death, reinfarction, and unstable angina requiring hospitalization or revascularization intervention. Both tests and their association showed a higher sensitivity in males; in females dobutamine stress echocardiography had a higher specificity. In females, the addition of dobutamine stress echocardiography increased either the negative or the positive prognostic values of exercise stress test by 31% and 5.6%, respectively. In males, the negative prognostic value increased by 15.5%, whereas the positive prognostic value decreased by 12%. A low exercise capability (<6 METs) showed an event predictive value independent of test results and any other variables. The event-free survival curves correlated with exercise capability differed shortly after the first months both in males and females. These results suggest different stratification procedures with regard to gender: in males, the exercise stress test might be sufficient at discharge, to be repeated 20 days later, if submaximal negative. In females, it seems to be useful to associate an imaging test at discharge. In any case, the exercise stress test remains the main step in the stratification procedure also for its capability to identify patients who are at high risk of events in the follow-up.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease heterogeneity: challenges for health risk assessment, stratification and management.

PubMed

Roca, Josep; Vargas, Claudia; Cano, Isaac; Selivanov, Vitaly; Barreiro, Esther; Maier, Dieter; Falciani, Francesco; Wagner, Peter; Cascante, Marta; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Kalko, Susana; De Mas, Igor; Tegnér, Jesper; Escarrabill, Joan; Agustí, Alvar; Gomez-Cabrero, David

2014-11-28

Heterogeneity in clinical manifestations and disease progression in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) lead to consequences for patient health risk assessment, stratification and management. Implicit with the classical "spill over" hypothesis is that COPD heterogeneity is driven by the pulmonary events of the disease. Alternatively, we hypothesized that COPD heterogeneities result from the interplay of mechanisms governing three conceptually different phenomena: 1) pulmonary disease, 2) systemic effects of COPD and 3) co-morbidity clustering, each of them with their own dynamics. To explore the potential of a systems analysis of COPD heterogeneity focused on skeletal muscle dysfunction and on co-morbidity clustering aiming at generating predictive modeling with impact on patient management. To this end, strategies combining deterministic modeling and network medicine analyses of the Biobridge dataset were used to investigate the mechanisms of skeletal muscle dysfunction. An independent data driven analysis of co-morbidity clustering examining associated genes and pathways was performed using a large dataset (ICD9-CM data from Medicare, 13 million people). Finally, a targeted network analysis using the outcomes of the two approaches (skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering) explored shared pathways between these phenomena. (1) Evidence of abnormal regulation of skeletal muscle bioenergetics and skeletal muscle remodeling showing a significant association with nitroso-redox disequilibrium was observed in COPD; (2) COPD patients presented higher risk for co-morbidity clustering than non-COPD patients increasing with ageing; and, (3) the on-going targeted network analyses suggests shared pathways between skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering. The results indicate the high potential of a systems approach to address COPD heterogeneity. Significant knowledge gaps were identified that are relevant to shape strategies aiming at fostering 4P Medicine for patients with COPD.

Coronary artery atherosclerosis and risk stratification in young adults with an intermediate pretest likelihood detected by multidetector computed tomography.

PubMed

Hou, Zhi-hui; Lu, Bin; Gao, Yang; Yu, Fang-fang; Cao, Hui-li; Jiang, Shi-liang; Roy, Sion K; Budoff, Matthew J

2012-11-01

To document the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients younger than 45 years of age with intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD, and to determine whether coronary computed tomography angiography (cCTA) is useful for risk stratification of this cohort. We followed 452 intermediate pretest likelihood (according to Diamond and Forrester) outpatients who were suspected of CAD and underwent cCTA. They were all younger than 45 years old. The endpoint was MACE, defined as composite cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. Follow-up was completed in 427 patients (94.5%) with a median follow-up period of 1081 days. No plaque was noted in 357 (83.6%) patients. Nonsignificant CAD was noted in 33 (7.7%) individuals and 37 (8.7%) patients with significant CAD. At the end of the follow-up period, 12 (2.8%) patients experienced MACE. The annualized event rate was 0.2% in patients with no plaque, 2.0% in patients with nonsignificant CAD, and 7.3% in patients with significant CAD. Hypertension, smoking, and significant CAD in cCTA were significant predictors of MACE in univariate analysis. Moreover, cCTA remained a predictor (P < .001) of events after multivariate correction (hazard ratio: 8.345, 95% CI: 3.438-17.823, P < .001). The prevalence of CAD and MACE in young adults with an intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD was considerable. cCTA is effective in restratifying patients into either a low or high posttest risk group. These results further emphasize the usefulness of cCTA in this cohort. Copyright © 2012 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dissolved oxygen stratification and response to thermal structure and long-term climate change in a large and deep subtropical reservoir (Lake Qiandaohu, China).

PubMed

Zhang, Yunlin; Wu, Zhixu; Liu, Mingliang; He, Jianbo; Shi, Kun; Zhou, Yongqiang; Wang, Mingzhu; Liu, Xiaohan

2015-05-15

From January 2010 to March 2014, detailed depth profiles of water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were collected at three sites in Lake Qiandaohu, a large, deep subtropical reservoir in China. Additionally, we assessed the changes in DO stratification over the past 61 years (1953-2013) based on our empirical models and long-term air temperature and transparency data. The DO concentration never fell below 2 mg/L, the critical value for anoxia, and the DO depth profiles were closely linked to the water temperature depth profiles. In the stable stratification period in summer and autumn, the significant increase in CDOM in the metalimnion explained the decrease in DO due to the oxygen consumed by CDOM. Well-developed oxygen stratification was detected at the three sites in spring, summer and autumn and was associated with thermal stratification. Oxycline depth was significantly negatively correlated with daily air temperature and thermocline thickness but significantly positively correlated with thermocline depth during the stratification weakness period (July-February). However, there were no significant correlations among these parameters during the stratification formation period (March-June). The increase of 1.67 °C in yearly average daily air temperature between 1980 and 2013 and the decrease of 0.78 m in Secchi disk depth caused a decrease of 1.65 m and 2.78 m in oxycline depth, respectively, facilitating oxygen stratification and decreasing water quality. Therefore, climate warming has had a substantial effect on water quality through changing the DO regime in Lake Qiandaohu. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acute myeloid leukemia in children: Current status and future directions.

PubMed

Taga, Takashi; Tomizawa, Daisuke; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Adachi, Souichi

2016-02-01

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) accounts for 25% of pediatric leukemia and affects approximately 180 patients annually in Japan. The treatment outcome for pediatric AML has improved through advances in chemotherapy, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), supportive care, and optimal risk stratification. Currently, clinical pediatric AML studies are conducted separately according to the AML subtypes: de novo AML, acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL), and myeloid leukemia with Down syndrome (ML-DS). Children with de novo AML are treated mainly with anthracyclines and cytarabine, in some cases with HSCT, and the overall survival (OS) rate now approaches 70%. Children with APL are treated with an all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA)-combined regimen with an 80-90% OS. Children with ML-DS are treated with a less intensive regimen compared with non-DS patients, and the OS is approximately 80%. HSCT in first remission is restricted to children with high-risk de novo AML only. To further improve outcomes, it will be necessary to combine more accurate risk stratification strategies using molecular genetic analysis with assessment of minimum residual disease, and the introduction of new drugs in international collaborative clinical trials. © 2015 Japan Pediatric Society.

Nonobstructive Coronary Artery Disease by Coronary CT Angiography Improves Risk Stratification and Allocation of Statin Therapy.

PubMed

Emami, Hamed; Takx, Richard A P; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Janjua, Sumbal; Park, Jakob; Pursnani, Amit; Tawakol, Ahmed; Lu, Michael T; Ferencik, Maros; Hoffmann, Udo

2017-09-01

This study sought to determine prognostic value of nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and to determine whether incorporation of this information into the pooled cohort equation reclassifies recommendations for statin therapy as defined by the 2013 guidelines for cholesterol management of the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA). Detection of nonobstructive CAD by coronary computed tomography angiography may improve risk stratification and permit individualized and more appropriate allocation of statin therapy. This study determined the pooled hazard ratio of nonobstructive CAD for ASCVD events from published studies and incorporated this information into the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equation. The study calculated revised sex- and ethnicity-based 10-year ASCVD risk and determined boundaries corresponding to the original 7.5% risk for ASCVD events. It also assessed reclassification for statin eligibility by incorporating the results from meta-analysis to individual patients from a separate cohort. This study included 2 studies (2,295 subjects; 66% male; prevalence of nonobstructive CAD, 47%; median follow-up, 49 months; 67 ASCVD events). The hazard ratio of nonobstructive CAD for ASCVD events was 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 6.7). Incorporation of this information into the pooled cohort equation resulted in reclassification toward statin eligibility in individuals with nonobstructive CAD, with an original ASCVD score of 3.0% and 5.9% or higher in African-American women and men and a score of 4.4% and 4.6% or higher in Caucasian women and men, respectively. The absence of nonobstructive CAD resulted in reclassification toward statin ineligibility if the original ASCVD score was as 10.0% and 17.9% or lower in African-American women and men and 13.7% and 14.3% or lower in Caucasian women and men, respectively. Reclassification is observed in 14% of patients. Detection of nonobstructive CAD by coronary computed tomography angiography improves risk stratification and permits individualized and more appropriate allocation of statin therapy across sex and ethnicity groups. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prosser, Diann J.; Wu, Junxi; Ellis, Erie C.; Gale, Fred; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Wint, William; Robinson, Tim; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2011-01-01

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

PubMed Central

Prosser, Diann J.; Wu, Junxi; Ellis, Erle C.; Gale, Fred; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Wint, William; Robinson, Tim; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2011-01-01

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China’s chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for ¼ of the sample data which was not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China’s first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives. PMID:21765567

Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

PubMed

Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

2009-09-16

This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer populations based on historic claims and diagnostic data. Initial validation results indicate that we can stratify enrollees with SUD diagnoses into different cost categories with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity, and the most challenging issue becomes one of policy. Due to the social stigma associated with the disease and ethical issues pertaining to access to care and individual versus societal benefit, a thoughtful dialogue needs to occur about the appropriate way to implement these technologies.

Mechanical dispersion is associated with poor outcome in heart failure with a severely depressed left ventricular function and bundle branch blocks.

PubMed

Stankovic, Ivan; Janicijevic, Aleksandra; Dimic, Aleksandra; Stefanovic, Milica; Vidakovic, Radosav; Putnikovic, Biljana; Neskovic, Aleksandar N

2018-03-01

Bundle branch blocks (BBB)-related mechanical dyssynchrony and dispersion may improve patient selection for device therapy, but their effect on the natural history of this patient population is unknown. A total of 155 patients with LVEF ≤ 35% and BBB, not treated with device therapy, were included. Mechanical dyssynchrony was defined as the presence of either septal flash or apical rocking. Contraction duration was assessed as time interval from the electrocardiographic R-(Q-)wave to peak longitudinal strain in each of 17 left ventricular segments. Mechanical dispersion was defined as either the standard deviation of all time intervals (dispersion SD ) or as the difference between the longest and shortest time intervals (dispersion delta ). Patients were followed for cardiac mortality during a median period of 33 months. Mechanical dyssynchrony was not associated with survival. More pronounced mechanical dispersion delta was found in patients with dyssynchrony than in those without. In the multivariate regression analysis, patients' functional class, diabetes mellitus and dispersion delta were independently associated with mortality. Mechanical dispersion, but not dyssynchrony, was independently associated with mortality and it may be useful for risk stratification of patients with heart failure (HF) and BBB. Key Messages Mechanical dispersion, measured by strain echocardiography, is associated with poor outcome in heart failure with a severely depressed left ventricular function and bundle branch blocks. Mechanical dispersion may be useful for risk stratification of patients with heart failure and bundle branch blocks.

Burden of cardiovascular risk factors and disease among patients with type 1 diabetes: results of the Australian National Diabetes Audit (ANDA).

PubMed

Pease, Anthony; Earnest, Arul; Ranasinha, Sanjeeva; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Liew, Danny; Wischer, Natalie; Andrikopoulos, Sofianos; Zoungas, Sophia

2018-06-02

Cardiovascular risk stratification is complex in type 1 diabetes. We hypothesised that traditional and diabetes-specific cardiovascular risk factors were prevalent and strongly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) among adults with type 1 diabetes attending Australian diabetes centres. De-identified, prospectively collected data from patients with type 1 diabetes aged ≥ 18 years in the 2015 Australian National Diabetes Audit were analysed. The burden of cardiovascular risk factors [age, sex, diabetes duration, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure, lipid profile, body mass index, smoking status, retinopathy, renal function and albuminuria] and associations with CVD inclusive of stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft surgery/angioplasty and peripheral vascular disease were assessed. Restricted cubic splines assessed for non-linearity of diabetes duration and likelihood ratio test assessed for interactions between age, diabetes duration, centre type and cardiovascular outcomes of interest. Discriminatory ability of multivariable models were assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Data from 1169 patients were analysed. Mean (± SD) age and median diabetes duration was 40.0 (± 16.7) and 16.0 (8.0-27.0) years respectively. Cardiovascular risk factors were prevalent including hypertension (21.9%), dyslipidaemia (89.4%), overweight/obesity (56.4%), ever smoking (38.5%), albuminuria (31.1%), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 (10.3%) and HbA1c > 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) (81.0%). Older age, longer diabetes duration, smoking and antihypertensive therapy use were positively associated with CVD, while high density lipoprotein-cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure were negatively associated (p < 0.05). Association with CVD and diabetes duration remained constant until 20 years when a linear increase was noted. Longer diabetes duration also had the highest population attributable risk of 6.5% (95% CI 1.4, 11.6). Further, the models for CVD demonstrated good discriminatory ability (area under the ROC curve 0.88; 95% CI 0.84, 0.92). Cardiovascular risk factors were prevalent and strongly associated with CVD among adults with type 1 diabetes attending Australian diabetes centres. Given the approximate J-shaped association between type 1 diabetes duration and CVD, the impact of cardiovascular risk stratification and management before and after 20 years duration needs to be further assessed longitudinally. Diabetes specific cardiovascular risk stratification tools incorporating diabetes duration should be an important consideration in future guideline development.

Reaction-space analysis of homogeneous charge compression ignition combustion with varying levels of fuel stratification under positive and negative valve overlap conditions

DOE PAGES

Kodavasal, Janardhan; Lavoie, George A.; Assanis, Dennis N.; ...

2015-10-26

Full-cycle computational fluid dynamics simulations with gasoline chemical kinetics were performed to determine the impact of breathing and fuel injection strategies on thermal and compositional stratification, combustion and emissions during homogeneous charge compression ignition combustion. The simulations examined positive valve overlap and negative valve overlap strategies, along with fueling by port fuel injection and direct injection. The resulting charge mass distributions were analyzed prior to ignition using ignition delay as a reactivity metric. The reactivity stratification arising from differences in the distributions of fuel–oxygen equivalence ratio (Φ FO), oxygen molar fraction (χ O2) and temperature (T) was determined for threemore » parametric studies. In the first study, the reactivity stratification and burn duration for positive valve overlap valve events with port fuel injection and early direct injection were nearly identical and were dominated by wall-driven thermal stratification. nitrogen oxide (NO) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were negligible for both injection strategies. In the second study, which examined negative valve overlap valve events with direct injection and port fuel injection, reactivity stratification increased for direct injection as the Φ FO and T distributions associated with direct fuel injection into the hot residual gas were positively correlated; however, the latent heat absorbed from the hot residual gas by the evaporating direct injection fuel jet reduced the overall thermal and reactivity stratification. These stratification effects were offsetting, resulting in similar reactivity stratification and burn durations for the two injection strategies. The higher local burned gas temperatures with direct injection resulted in an order of magnitude increase in NO, while incomplete combustion of locally over-lean regions led to a sevenfold increase in CO emissions compared to port fuel injection. The final study evaluated positive valve overlap and negative valve overlap valve events with direct injection. Furthermore, relative to positive valve overlap, the negative valve overlap condition had a wider reactivity stratification, a longer burn duration and higher NO and CO emissions associated with reduced fuel–air mixing.« less

Cross-sectional survey: risk-averse French general practitioners are more favorable toward influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Massin, Sophie; Ventelou, Bruno; Nebout, Antoine; Verger, Pierre; Pulcini, Céline

2015-01-29

We tested the following hypotheses: (i) risk-averse general practitioners (GPs) are more likely to be vaccinated against influenza; (ii) and risk-averse GPs recommend influenza vaccination more often to their patients. In risk-averse GPs, the perceived benefits of the vaccine and/or the perceived risks of the infectious disease might indeed outweigh the perceived risks of the vaccine. In 2010-2012, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of a nationwide French representative sample of 1136 GPs. Multivariate analyses adjusted for four stratification variables (age, gender, urban/suburban/rural practice location and annual patient consultations) and for GPs' characteristics (group/solo practice, and occasional practice of alternative medicine, e.g., homeopathy) looked for associations between their risk attitudes and self-reported vaccination behavior. Individual risk attitudes were expressed as a continuous variable, from 0 (risk-tolerant) to 10 (risk-averse). Overall, 69% of GPs reported that they were very favorable toward vaccination in general. Self-reported vaccination coverage was 78% for 2009/2010 seasonal influenza and 62% for A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. Most GPs (72%) reported recommending the pandemic influenza vaccination to at-risk young adults in 2009, but few than half (42%) to young adults not at risk. In multivariate analyses, risk-averse GPs were more often vaccinated against seasonal (marginal effect=1.3%, P=0.02) and pandemic influenza (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.02). Risk-averse GPs recommended the pandemic influenza vaccination more often than their more risk-tolerant colleagues to patients without risk factors (marginal effect=1.7%, P=0.01), but not to their at-risk patients and were more favorable toward vaccination in general (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.04). Individual risk attitudes may influence GPs' practices regarding influenza vaccination, both for themselves and their patients. Our results suggest that risk-averse GPs may perceive the risks of influenza to outweigh the potential risks related to the vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Multiple-hierarchy Stratification and Life Course Approaches to Understand Health Inequalities: The Intersecting Consequences of Race, Gender, SES, and Age.

PubMed

Brown, Tyson H; Richardson, Liana J; Hargrove, Taylor W; Thomas, Courtney S

2016-06-01

This study examines how the intersecting consequences of race-ethnicity, gender, socioeconomics status (SES), and age influence health inequality. We draw on multiple-hierarchy stratification and life course perspectives to address two main research questions. First, does racial-ethnic stratification of health vary by gender and/or SES? More specifically, are the joint health consequences of racial-ethnic, gender, and socioeconomic stratification additive or multiplicative? Second, does this combined inequality in health decrease, remain stable, or increase between middle and late life? We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (N = 12,976) to investigate between- and within-group differences in in self-rated health among whites, blacks, and Mexican Americans. Findings indicate that the effects of racial-ethnic, gender, and SES stratification are interactive, resulting in the greatest racial-ethnic inequalities in health among women and those with higher levels of SES. Furthermore, racial-ethnic/gender/SES inequalities in health tend to decline with age. These results are broadly consistent with intersectionality and aging-as-leveler hypotheses. © American Sociological Association 2016.

The effect of stratification on premixed swirl-flame flashback by using porous center-body injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaslin, Andrew; Ranjan, Rakesh; Clemens, Noel

2016-11-01

Boundary layer flashback must be prevented in order to stably operate stationary gas turbines. One strategy to avoid flashback is to create equivalence-ratio stratification, such as by reducing the fuel/air ratio in the boundary layer below the flammability limit. Typically, stratification is achieved by using radially non-uniform fuel injection. The goal of the current study is to reduce the propensity of flashback in a premixed annular swirl combustor that uses a premix section with center-body. A porous metal center-body (10 micron pore size) is used to bleed air directly into the boundary layer and thus locally reduce the equivalence ratio. Planar laser-induced fluorescence imaging of anisole-seeded flow is carried out to assess the stratification in the flow. Time-resolved PIV and chemiluminescence imaging are used to investigate flashback at atmospheric pressure conditions. A comparative study between fully premixed and stratified flame flashback is conducted to determine how stratification influences flashback physics. This work was sponsored by the DOE NETL under Grant DEFC2611-FE0007107. This source of funding is gratefully acknowledged.

Using Multiple-hierarchy Stratification and Life Course Approaches to Understand Health Inequalities: The Intersecting Consequences of Race, Gender, SES, and Age

PubMed Central

Brown, Tyson H.; Richardson, Liana J.; Hargrove, Taylor W.; Thomas, Courtney S.

2016-01-01

This study examines how the intersecting consequences of race-ethnicity, gender, socioeconomics status (SES), and age influence health inequality. We draw on multiple-hierarchy stratification and life course perspectives to address two main research questions. First, does racial-ethnic stratification of health vary by gender and/or SES? More specifically, are the joint health consequences of racial-ethnic, gender, and socioeconomic stratification additive or multiplicative? Second, does this combined inequality in health decrease, remain stable, or increase between middle and late life? We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (N = 12,976) to investigate between- and within-group differences in in self-rated health among whites, blacks, and Mexican Americans. Findings indicate that the effects of racial-ethnic, gender, and SES stratification are interactive, resulting in the greatest racial-ethnic inequalities in health among women and those with higher levels of SES. Furthermore, racial-ethnic/gender/SES inequalities in health tend to decline with age. These results are broadly consistent with intersectionality and aging-as-leveler hypotheses. PMID:27284076

The Introduction of Adult Appendicitis Score Reduced Negative Appendectomy Rate.

PubMed

Sammalkorpi, H E; Mentula, P; Savolainen, H; Leppäniemi, A

2017-09-01

Implementation of a clinical risk score into diagnostics of acute appendicitis may provide accurate diagnosis with selective use of imaging studies. The aim of this study was to prospectively validate recently described diagnostic scoring system, Adult Appendicitis Score, and evaluate its effects on negative appendectomy rate. Adult Appendicitis Score stratifies patients into three groups: high, intermediate, and low risk of appendicitis. The score was implemented in diagnostics of adult patients suspected of acute appendicitis in two university hospitals. We analyzed the effects of Adult Appendicitis Score on diagnostic accuracy, imaging studies, and treatment. The study population was compared with a reference population of 829 patients suspected of acute appendicitis originally enrolled for the study of construction of the Adult Appendicitis Score. This study enrolled 908 patients of whom 432 (48%) had appendicitis. The score stratified 49% of all appendicitis patients into high-risk group with specificity of 93.3%. In the low-risk group, prevalence of appendicitis was 7%. The histologically confirmed negative appendectomy rate decreased from 18.2% to 8.7%, p<0.001, compared to the original dataset. Adult Appendicitis Score is a reliable tool for stratification of patients into selective imaging, which results in low negative appendectomy rate.

Kawasaki disease and giant coronary artery aneurysms: the role of echocardiography from diagnosis through follow-up.

PubMed

Adler, Adam C; Kodavatiganti, Ramesh

2016-08-01

Kawasaki disease is an acquired vasculitis that can affect the coronary arteries placing the patient at risk for coronary artery thrombosis, myocardial ischemia and infarction. The risk of complications related to coronary artery involvement persists for years despite recovery from the acute illness phase. The risk of late coronary disease progression necessitates long term follow-up generally accomplished by non-invasive echocardiography in pediatric patients. We review the utility of echocardiography in patients with Kawasaki disease as it relates to initial management, risk stratification and follow-up of these children. © 2016, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

PubMed

Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

2016-09-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led to a NPV of 96% for high-grade cancer. The risk score, comprising DNA-methylation intensity and traditional clinical risk factors, improved the identification of men with high-grade cancer, with a maximum avoidance of unnecessary repeat biopsies. This risk score resulted in better patient risk stratification and significantly outperformed current risk prediction models such as PCPTRC and PSA. The risk score could help to identify patients with histopathologically negative biopsies harboring high-grade PCa. Prostate 76:1078-1087, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lifetime cardiovascular risk of childhood obesity.

PubMed

Raghuveer, Geetha

2010-05-01

An increase in the incidence and an earlier onset of coronary artery disease is expected because of the increased prevalence of childhood obesity. Comorbidities of obesity, such as dyslipidemia, insulin resistance syndrome, hypertension, associated nutritional deficiencies, and a sedentary lifestyle or associated lifestyle factors such as tobacco smoke exposure, are likely to account for this increase because these are all independent risk factors for accelerated atherosclerosis. Because clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease does not manifest in obese children, assessment of the subclinical markers of atherosclerosis may help in the evaluation of the progression of atherosclerosis, in further stratification of risk, and in monitoring the effects of intervention. Furthermore, because multiple risk factors with poorly understood interplay might be present in obese children, assessment of the vasculature directly, and perhaps the assignment of a "vascular age," may be a useful method to quantify the "end organ" effect of exposure to these various risks. Obese children may show favorable changes in their behaviors that result in an improvement in clinically measurable risk factors with various clinic-based and behavior modification therapies, but the vascular benefits of such interventions need to be studied further. Broad social, cultural, legislative, and policy changes that support healthy lifestyles within families and communities need to be implemented to decrease the prevalence of childhood obesity and its cardiovascular consequences in communities. The effect of risk factor modification on the vasculature will continue to be a resource for the direction of evidence-based therapy in obese children.

Office white-coat effect tail and long-term cardiovascular risks in the Gubbio residential cohort study.

PubMed

Humbert, Xavier; Fedrizzi, Sophie; Alexandre, Joachim; Menotti, Alessandro; Manrique, Alain; Touzé, Emmanuel; Puddu, Paolo E

2018-05-24

The aim was to investigate whether office white-coat effect tail (OWCET), the waning of blood pressure (BP) after its waxing during office visit, predicted long-term major fatal and nonfatal events in the Gubbio residential cohort. There were 3572 persons (44% men, 54 ± 11 years old) included. OWCET was defined as a decrease of 10 mmHg or more in SBP between the third and first measurement out of a series obtained a few min apart in which the second and third were considered actual baseline SBP at enrollment. Cardiovascular (CVD), including strokes and coronary heart disease (CHD) hard criteria incidences and deaths along with all-cause deaths were considered. Over 185 months median follow-up, individuals with OWCET had significantly higher risk factors except for smoking, which was less frequent. OWCET was associated with an increased risk of both CVD [HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.02-1.52)] and CHD [HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.01-1.80)] events independently of traditional risk factors (age, sex, total cholesterol, HDL, cigarettes and BMI) including SBP. When effective antihypertensive treatment was considered, there was a significant higher CVD risk in individuals with OWCET (P < 0.037). In uncontrolled or untreated individuals, those with OWCET also had a higher risk (P < 0.073). In primary care, OWCET should be searched for as it can improve stratification of long-term CVD-CHD risks.

Minimizing cardiac risk in perioperative practice - interdisciplinary pharmacological approaches.

PubMed

Bock, Matthias; Wiedermann, Christian J; Motsch, Johann; Fritsch, Gerhard; Paulmichl, Markus

2011-07-01

In an aging population, major surgery is often performed in patients with complex co-morbidities. These patients present new risk constellations so that cardiac and respiratory complications mainly contribute to perioperative morbidity. We composed a narrative review on pharmacological approaches to cardiovascular protection in the perioperative period including effects of central neuraxial blocks and hypothermia on cardiovascular outcome. The single chapters are structured as follows: pathophysiology-early studies-recent evidence-recommendations. In coping with this challenge, innovative concepts like fast track surgery and pharmacological treatment are being utilized with increasing frequency including perioperative cardioprotection, novel strategies of anticoagulation or antiplatelet therapy, and protocols for postoperative pain therapy. All the concepts described require an interdisciplinary approach in collaboration between operative physicians and physicians working in non-surgical disciplines like internal medicine, cardiology, and clinical pharmacology. The perioperative continuation of a pre-existing therapy with beta-blockers and other potentially cardioprotective agents like α(2)-agonists and statines is recommended. In the management of patients presenting for major surgery stratification of the perioperative risk is essential which considers both, invasiveness of the surgical procedure and conditions of the patient. Otherwise, side-effects might outweigh benefits of a potentially effective therapy as recently shown for the perioperative administration of beta-blockers that should be restricted to high-risk patients.

Clinical risk stratification in patients with surgically resectable micropapillary bladder cancer.

PubMed

Fernández, Mario I; Williams, Stephen B; Willis, Daniel L; Slack, Rebecca S; Dickstein, Rian J; Parikh, Sahil; Chiong, Edmund; Siefker-Radtke, Arlene O; Guo, Charles C; Czerniak, Bogdan A; McConkey, David J; Shah, Jay B; Pisters, Louis L; Grossman, H Barton; Dinney, Colin P N; Kamat, Ashish M

2017-05-01

To analyse survival in patients with clinically localised, surgically resectable micropapillary bladder cancer (MPBC) undergoing radical cystectomy (RC) with and without neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and develop risk strata based on outcome data. A review of our database identified 103 patients with surgically resectable (≤cT4acN0 cM0) MPBC who underwent RC. Survival estimates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank tests. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to identify risk groups for survival. For the entire cohort, estimated 5-year overall survival and disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were 52% and 58%, respectively. CART analysis identified three risk subgroups: low-risk: cT1, no hydronephrosis; high-risk: ≥cT2, no hydronephrosis; and highest-risk: cTany with tumour-associated hydronephrosis. The 5-year DSS for the low-, high-, and highest-risk groups were 92%, 51%, and 17%, respectively (P < 0.001). Patients down-staged at RC

Development and validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT)

PubMed Central

Protopapa, K L; Simpson, J C; Smith, N C E; Moonesinghe, S R

2014-01-01

Background Existing risk stratification tools have limitations and clinical experience suggests they are not used routinely. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk stratification tool to predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery in adults by analysis of data from the observational National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) Knowing the Risk study. Methods The data set was split into derivation and validation cohorts. Logistic regression was used to construct a model in the derivation cohort to create the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), which was tested in the validation cohort. Results Prospective data for 19 097 cases in 326 hospitals were obtained from the NCEPOD study. Following exclusion of 2309, details of 16 788 patients were analysed (derivation cohort 11 219, validation cohort 5569). A model of 45 risk factors was refined on repeated regression analyses to develop a model comprising six variables: American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) grade, urgency of surgery (expedited, urgent, immediate), high-risk surgical specialty (gastrointestinal, thoracic, vascular), surgical severity (from minor to complex major), cancer and age 65 years or over. In the validation cohort, the SORT was well calibrated and demonstrated better discrimination than the ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale; areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0·91 (95 per cent c.i. 0·88 to 0·94), 0·87 (0·84 to 0·91) and 0·88 (0·84 to 0·92) respectively (P < 0·001). Conclusion The SORT allows rapid and simple data entry of six preoperative variables, and provides a percentage mortality risk for individuals undergoing surgery. PMID:25388883

Particle dispersion in a stably stratified channel flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquero, C.; Armenio, V.

2003-04-01

The motion of particles in a stably stratified channel flow is relevant in geophysic and environmental applications. In the present research this problem has been studied numerically using a mixed Lagrangian-Eulerian technique (Lagrangian motion of an ensemble of particles in an Eulerian field) by means of large eddy simulation. A stratified channel flows can be decomposed into a buoyancy affected region, with a strong turbulent activity, close to the walls, and into a buoyancy dominated region, where turbulence is strongly inhibited, in the center of the channel. For strong stratifications, counter gradient heat fluxes steepen the density gradient moving hot fluid up and cold fluid down. The stratification in the central region of the channel becomes extremely stable. However, the vertical turbulent energy, defined as the difference between the total vertical kinetic energy and its temporal average, is very strong. Particle statistics have shown that this can be related to the presence of high frequency internal waves, that do not contribute to dispersion because of their highly coherent behavior. Vertical stratification is shown to reduce or increase the decorrelation time for vertical motion, depending on the Richardson number. When stratification is increased there are two competing effects: Structures have a smaller vertical scale (acting to reduce the decorrelation time) and vertical velocities are smaller (acting to increase the decorrelation time, since particles stay for a longer time into a given structure in the flow). It has been shown that for low stratification the first mechanism dominates, while for large stratification the second effect is more important. The research is in progress and results for both fluid and inertial particles will be presented at the conference.

Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

2015-02-01

Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Validation of risk stratification for children with febrile neutropenia in a pediatric oncology unit in India.

PubMed

Das, Anirban; Trehan, Amita; Oberoi, Sapna; Bansal, Deepak

2017-06-01

The study aims to validate a score predicting risk of complications in pediatric patients with chemotherapy-related febrile neutropenia (FN) and evaluate the performance of previously published models for risk stratification. Children diagnosed with cancer and presenting with FN were evaluated in a prospective single-center study. A score predicting the risk of complications, previously derived in the unit, was validated on a prospective cohort. Performance of six predictive models published from geographically distinct settings was assessed on the same cohort. Complications were observed in 109 (26.3%) of 414 episodes of FN over 15 months. A risk score based on undernutrition (two points), time from last chemotherapy (<7 days = two points), presence of a nonupper respiratory focus of infection (two points), C-reactive protein (>60 mg/l = five points), and absolute neutrophil count (<100 per μl = two points) was used to stratify patients into "low risk" (score <7, n = 208) and assessed using the following parameters: overall performance (Nagelkerke R 2 = 34.4%), calibration (calibration slope = 0.39; P = 0.25 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test), discrimination (c-statistic = 0.81), overall sensitivity (86%), negative predictive value (93%), and clinical net benefit (0.43). Six previously published rules demonstrated inferior performance in this cohort. An indigenous decision rule using five simple predefined variables was successful in identifying children at risk for complications. Prediction models derived in developed nations may not be appropriate for low-middle-income settings and need to be validated before use. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Frequency Of Different Risk Factors Associated With Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection Among Postmenopausal Women.

PubMed

Jameel, Sadia; Mahmud, Syed Nayer

2016-01-01

Urinary Tract Infection is one of the most common infections encountered by women. These infections have the tendency to recur. In order to identify women at risk of recurrence there is a need to identify risk factors associated with it. Among women, factors predisposing to recurrent infections are not much explored. The study was done with an objective to determine different risk factors associated with recurrent UTI among postmenopausal women. This was a cross sectional study conducted at the Out Patient Department of Nephrology in Shifa International Hospital Islamabad over a period of six months, June 6th to December 5th 2012. Information regarding demographics and risk factors were recorded on a predesigned pro forma. A descriptive analysis was done for quantitative variables like age and qualitative variables like marital status and frequency of different risk factors. Stratification of risk factors according to age was also done. Hundred females were enrolled into the study after informed consent. The mean age of the study population was 64.4±9.48. 97% of the population was married. Out of 100 patients, 42 had high post-void volume, 35 had urinary incontinence and 17 patients were having cystocele. According to age stratification, most frequently affected age group was between 51-60 years (38%), followed by 61-70 years (36%), then 25% in more than 70 years, whereas only 1% was between 41-50 years. Recurrent UTI in postmenopausal females is most frequently associated with high post void volume and most frequently affected age group is between 51-60 years.

Risk stratification in acute pulmonary embolism with heart-type fatty acid-binding protein: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bajaj, Anurag; Rathor, Parul; Sehgal, Vishal; Shetty, Ajay; Kabak, Besher; Hosur, Srikanth

2015-10-01

Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) has emerged as a new biomarker in risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We performed a meta-analysis of studies in patients with acute PE to assess the prognostic value of elevated H-FABP for short-term adverse outcomes. Two independent reviewers systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database until June 2014. Studies were searched using MeSH word "fatty acid-binding protein" and "pulmonary embolism." Prospective studies were included if those were done on patients with acute PE and if serum H-FABP assay was done. Relevant data on study design, year of publication, patient population, inclusion criteria, exclusion criteria, mean age, sex, type of H-FABP assay, cutoff of H-FABP used, and outcomes were extracted. The primary end point was 30-day complicated clinical course and PE-related mortality. The secondary end point was right ventricular dysfunction (RVD). A random-effects model was used to pool study results. Nine studies, including 1680 patients, reported data on the 30-day complicated clinical course. Elevated H-FABP was significantly associated with the increased risk of 30-day complicated clinical course (odds ratio [OR], 17.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.02-51.89; I(2) = 80%). Similarly, 6 studies, including 676 patients, reported 30-day mortality data. Elevated H-FABP was associated with increased risk of 30-day PE-related mortality (OR, 32.94; 95% CI, 8.80-123.21, I(2) = 53%). The risk of RVD was significantly higher in patients with elevated H-FABP as compared with patients with normal H-FABP (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.05-6.33, I(2) = 57%). The prognostic sensitivity and specificity of H-FABP were 71% and 74% in predicting 30-day complicated clinical course and were 90% and 70% in predicting 30-day mortality. This meta-analysis indicates that elevated H-FABP levels are associated with increased risk of 30-day complicated clinical course, mortality, and RVD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Climate Change on Stratification-Destratification Cycles and Resulting Cyanobacterial Blooms in Shallow Lakes of the North Temperate Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. T.; Schaffner, L. R.; Gilman, B.; Gronwall, T. R.; Gronwall, D.; Dietz, E. R.; Hairston, N., Jr.

2016-12-01

"Harmful Algal Blooms" of cyanobacteria (cyanoHABs) have become more frequent and larger in extent for inland waters across the globe. Honeoye Lake, the shallowest of the New York State Finger Lakes (9 m max depth, 7 km long), has experienced recent problematic blooms. We use this lake as a model system for understanding the effects of climate change on cyanoHABs in shallow lakes. Cyanobacteria thrive in warm waters with high phosphorus concentrations. While high P is often caused by external nutrient loading via surface runoff, it can also result from internal loading when P-rich sediment is exposed to anoxic/reducing conditions in a lake's hypolimnion after prolonged stratification. In deep lakes, hypolimnetic water remains isolated from the epilimnion throughout the summer with the dissolved P separated from illuminated surface water; in very shallow lakes where the entire water column remains oxygenated/oxidizing, P is bound in insoluble inorganic complexes. However, in lakes of intermediate depth, hypolimnetic water high in soluble reactive P may mix into the photic zone if sufficiently strong winds occur, stimulating a cyanoHAB. We suggest that repeated cycles of stratification, hypolimnetic anoxia, and subsequent mixing may result in "phosphorus pumping" with recurrent cyanoHABs throughout summer. Climate change is causing stronger thermal stratification in lakes through increased surface warming but also causing more frequent storms that can break down stratification in a shallow lake. We use Honeoye Lake as a model system for understanding the extent to which P-pumping occurs and the likely effects of climate change on cyanoHABs. Field data collected in summer 2016 were used to calibrate the publically available General Lake Model (GLM) to predict Honeoye's discontinuous polymictic pattern of stratification punctuated by overturn events and spikes in epilimnetic P and cyanobacterial biomass. We use the calibrated model to determine cyanoHAB incidence as a function of lake morphometry, summer temperature, and summer storm frequency and intensity. This allows projection of the effects of different climate change scenarios on the incidence of cyanoHABs for this lake and for lakes along a continuum of length-depth morphometries across the North Temperate Zone.

Effects of density stratification on the frequencies of the inertial-gravity modes of the Earth's fluid core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyed-Mahmoud, B.; Moradi, A.; Kamruzzaman, M.; Naseri, H.

2015-08-01

The Earth's outer core is a rotating ellipsoidal shell of compressible, stratified and self-gravitating fluid. As such, in the treatment of geophysical problems a realistic model of this body needs to be considered. In this work, we consider compressible and stratified fluid core models with different stratification parameters, related to the local Brunt-Väisälä frequency, in order to study the effects of the core's density stratification on the frequencies of some of the inertial-gravity modes of this body. The inertial-gravity modes of the core are free oscillations with periods longer than 12 hr. Historically, an incompressible and homogeneous fluid is considered to study these modes and analytical solutions are known for the frequencies and the displacement eigenfunctions of a spherical model. We show that for a compressible and stratified spherical core model the effects of non-neutral density stratification may be significant, and the frequencies of these modes may change from model to model. For example, for a spherical core model the frequency of the spin-over mode, the (2, 1, 1) mode, is unaffected while that of the (4, 1, 1) mode is changed from -0.410 for the Poincaré core model to -0.434, -0.447 and -0.483 for core models with the stability parameter β = -0.001, -0.002 and -0.005, respectively, a maximum change of about 18 per cent when β = -0.005. Our results also show that for small stratification parameter, |β| ≤ 0.005, the frequency of an inertial-gravity mode is a nearly linear function of β but the slope of the line is different for different modes, and that the effects of density stratification on the frequency of a mode is likely related to its spatial structure, which remains the same in different Earth models. We also compute the frequencies of some of the modes of the `PREM' (spherical shell) core model and show that the frequencies of these modes may also be significantly affected by non-zero β.

Transport of particles, drops, and small organisms in density stratified fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardekani, Arezoo M.; Doostmohammadi, Amin; Desai, Nikhil

2017-10-01

Sedimenting particles and motile organisms are ubiquitously found in oceans and lakes, where density stratification naturally occurs due to temperature or salinity gradients. We explore the effects of stratification on the fundamental hydrodynamics of settling particles, rising drops, and small organisms. The results of our direct numerical simulations of the sedimentation of particles show that the presence of vertical density gradients in the water column can substantially affect the settling dynamics of a particle, interaction between a pair of particles, and settling rates and microstructure of suspension of particles. We show that elongation of particles affects both the settling orientation and the settling rate of particles in stratified fluids, which will have direct consequences on the vertical flux of particulate matter and carbon flux in the ocean. We further demonstrate an unexpected effect of buoyancy, potentially affecting a broad range of processes at pycnoclines in oceans and lakes. In particular, stratification has a major effect on the flow field, energy expenditure, and nutrient uptake of small organisms. In addition, the role of stratification in pattern formation of bioconvection plumes of algal cells and in biogenic mixing is investigated. In particular, the numerical approach allows for considering the effects of background turbulence and hydrodynamic perturbations produced by swimming organisms, shedding light on the contribution of organisms in the mixing process in aqueous environments.

MODFLOW 2.0: A program for predicting moderator flow patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, P. F.; Paik, I. K.

1991-07-01

Sudden changes in the temperature of flowing liquids can result in transient buoyancy forces which strongly impact the flow hydrodynamics via flow stratification. These effects have been studied for the case of potential flow of stratified liquids to line sinks, but not for moderator flow in SRS reactors. Standard codes, such as TRAC and COMMIX, do not have the capability to capture the stratification effect, due to strong numerical diffusion which smears away the hot/cold fluid interface. A related problem with standard codes is the inability to track plumes injected into the liquid flow, again due to numerical diffusion. The combined effects of buoyant stratification and plume dispersion have been identified as being important in the operation of the Supplementary Safety System which injects neutron-poison ink into SRS reactors to provide safe shutdown in the event of safety rod failure. The MODFLOW code discussed here provides transient moderator flow pattern information with stratification effects, and tracks the location of ink plumes in the reactor. The code, written in Fortran, is compiled for Macintosh II computers, and includes subroutines for interactive control and graphical output. Removing the graphics capabilities, the code can also be compiled on other computers. With graphics, in addition to the capability to perform safety related computations, MODFLOW also provides an easy tool for becoming familiar with flow distributions in SRS reactors.

Forest/Nonforest Classification of Landsat TM Data For Annual Inventory Phase One Stratification

Treesearch

Jim Rack

2001-01-01

Launch of Landsat 7 creates the opportunity to use relatively inexpensive and regularly acquired land cover data as an alternative to high altitude aerial photography. Creating a forest/nonforest mask from satellite imagery may offer a cost-effective alternative to interpretation of aerial photography for Phase One stratification of annual inventory plots. This paper...

Boiling water scarification plus stratification improves germination of Iliamna rivularis (Malvaceae) seeds

Treesearch

Katri Himanen; Markku Nygren; R. Kasten Dumroese

2012-01-01

Scarification with boiling water plus stratification was most effective in improving germination of Iliamna rivularis (Douglas ex Hook.) Greene (Malvaceae) in an experiment that compared 3 treatments. Seeds from 15 sites representing 5 western US states were used in the experiment. Initial response of the seedlots to the treatments was similar, apart from one seedlot....

Advanced techniques to prepare seed to sow

Treesearch

Robert P. Karrfalt

2013-01-01

This paper reviews research on improving the basic technique of cold stratification for tree and shrub seeds. Advanced stratification techniques include long stratification, stratification re-dry, or multiple cycles of warm-cold stratification. Research demonstrates that careful regulation of moisture levels and lengthening the stratification period have produced a...

A Risk Stratification Tool to Assess Commercial Influences on Continuing Medical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnes, Barbara E.; Cole, Jeanne G.; King, Catherine Thomas; Zukowski, Rebecca; Allgier-Baker, Tracy; Rubio, Doris McGartland; Thorndyke, Luanne E.

2007-01-01

Introduction: Heightened concerns about industry influence on continuing medical education (CME) have prompted tighter controls on the management of commercial funding and conflict of interest. As a result, CME providers must closely monitor their activities and intervene if bias or noncompliance with accreditation standards is likely. Potential…

The Impact of School Choice and Public Policy on Segregation: Evidence from Chile

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elacqua, Gregory

2012-01-01

Advocates argue that vouchers can make improved educational opportunity available to disadvantaged students. Critics contend that vouchers increase the risk of stratification. Researchers have found that Chile's voucher program has lead to increased socioeconomic school segregation. What has been overlooked, however, is segregation between schools…

Approach to the patient: contraception in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Yildiz, Bulent O

2015-03-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common reproductive and metabolic disorder. Patients with PCOS present with clinical signs of androgen excess (ie, hirsutism and acne), menstrual irregularities, and infertility. Combined oral contraceptive (OC) pills are the first-line medical therapy for the long-term management of PCOS. Containing a combination of estrogen and progestin, OCs restore regular menses, improve androgen excess, and provide effective contraception and protection from endometrial cancer. The benefits of hormonal contraception outweigh the risks in the vast majority of women with PCOS. However, concerns have been raised about potential adverse cardiovascular and metabolic effects of OCs. Currently available evidence indicates an increased relative risk of venous thrombosis associated with OCs varying among different formulations. Arterial thrombosis risk attributable to OCs does not appear to be significantly increased in young nonsmoking women. OC use might be associated with increased risk of diabetes in morbidly obese women with PCOS with severe insulin resistance. A tailored clinical approach to oral contraception in women with PCOS requires individualized risk stratification and management by determination of each PCOS patient's personal cardiometabolic risk profile at baseline and during follow-up. Before prescribing an OC, clinicians should document individual risk factors including age, smoking, obesity, any degree of glucose intolerance including prediabetes and diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, thrombophilia, and personal or family history of a venous thromboembolic event.

Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk.

PubMed

Steinmann, Peter; Keiser, Jennifer; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

2006-07-01

An estimated 779 million people are at risk of schistosomiasis, of whom 106 million (13.6%) live in irrigation schemes or in close proximity to large dam reservoirs. We identified 58 studies that examined the relation between water resources development projects and schistosomiasis, primarily in African settings. We present a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with the following objectives: (1) to update at-risk populations of schistosomiasis and number of people infected in endemic countries, and (2) to quantify the risk of water resources development and management on schistosomiasis. Using 35 datasets from 24 African studies, our meta-analysis showed pooled random risk ratios of 2.4 and 2.6 for urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively, among people living adjacent to dam reservoirs. The risk ratio estimate for studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on urinary schistosomiasis was in the range 0.02-7.3 (summary estimate 1.1) and that on intestinal schistosomiasis in the range 0.49-23.0 (summary estimate 4.7). Geographic stratification showed important spatial differences, idiosyncratic to the type of water resources development. We conclude that the development and management of water resources is an important risk factor for schistosomiasis, and hence strategies to mitigate negative effects should become integral parts in the planning, implementation, and operation of future water projects.

DNS of helicity-induced stratified turbulent flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandy, Abhilash J.; Rahimi, Abbas

2013-11-01

Helical flows undergoing density stratification have wide applications in meteorological phenomena such as dust devils, tornadoes, and hurricanes due to the complexity and disasters caused by them. Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of transition to turbulence in a stably stratified Boussinesq fluid are presented for different rotation and stratification intensities. In order to understand the effect of velocity on the energy cascade, comparisons are made between helicity initiated and non-helical flows. Results show that stratification decelerates the helicity decay and causes velocity and vorticity to align with each other. With respect to the helical and non-helical flow comparisons, the total energy in the presence of stratification decays faster with helicity. In addition, the behavior of length scales were examined by comparing temporal variations of the vertical shearing of velocities. Results showed a growing asymmetry with time in the case of helical flow, while non-helical flow stayed close to begin symmetric.

Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-04-16

The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores. Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems. Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs of PIRO were significantly greater than those of APACHE II and MEDS (P < 0.05) in predicting ICU admission and MOD. The study indicates that PIRO is helpful for risk stratification and prognostic determinations in septic patients in the ED.

Role of late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the risk stratification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Ismail, Tevfik F; Jabbour, Andrew; Gulati, Ankur; Mallorie, Amy; Raza, Sadaf; Cowling, Thomas E; Das, Bibek; Khwaja, Jahanzaib; Alpendurada, Francisco D; Wage, Ricardo; Roughton, Michael; McKenna, William J; Moon, James C; Varnava, Amanda; Shakespeare, Carl; Cowie, Martin R; Cook, Stuart A; Elliott, Perry; O'Hanlon, Rory; Pennell, Dudley J; Prasad, Sanjay K

2014-12-01

Myocardial fibrosis identified by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is associated with adverse cardiovascular events, but its value as an independent risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD) is unknown. We investigated the role of LGE-CMR in the risk stratification of HCM. We conducted a prospective cohort study in a tertiary referral centre. Consecutive patients with HCM (n=711, median age 56.3 years, IQR 46.7-66.6; 70.0% male) underwent LGE-CMR and were followed for a median 3.5 years. The primary end point was SCD or aborted SCD. Overall, 471 patients (66.2%) had myocardial fibrosis (median 5.9% of left ventricular mass, IQR: 2.2-13.3). Twenty-two (3.1%) reached the primary end point. The extent but not the presence of fibrosis was a significant univariable predictor of the primary end point (HR per 5% LGE: 1.24, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.45; p=0.007 and HR for LGE: 2.69, 95% CI 0.91 to 7.97; p=0.073, respectively). However, on multivariable analysis, only LV-EF remained statistically significant (HR: 0.92, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.95; p<0.001). For the secondary outcome of cardiovascular mortality/aborted SCD, the presence and the amount of fibrosis were significant predictors on univariable but not multivariable analysis after adjusting for LV-EF and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. The amount of myocardial fibrosis was a strong univariable predictor of SCD risk. However, this effect was not maintained after adjusting for LV-EF. Further work is required to elucidate the interrelationship between fibrosis and traditional predictors of outcome in HCM. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hohnloser, S. H.; Klingenheben, T.; Li, Y. G.; Zabel, M.; Peetermans, J.; Cohen, R. J.

1998-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

Personalized assessment and management of women at risk for breast cancer in North America.

PubMed

Pruthi, Sandhya; Heisey, Ruth; Bevers, Therese

2015-03-01

Many women at increased risk for breast cancer would benefit from referral for genetic testing, enhanced screening, preventive therapy or risk-reducing surgery. We present a visual model and a step-wise approach to assist with a personalized risk stratification and management of these women. We present current recommendations with respect to lifestyle behaviors and mammographic screening, and we review the current evidence regarding enhanced screening and risk-reducing therapies. We discuss the usefulness of three risk-assessment tools in determining whether a woman qualifies for genetic testing, enhanced screening or preventive therapy and present four cases to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach in the clinical setting.

Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

2017-09-01

To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Establishing a mobile health and wellness program for rural veterans.

PubMed

Therien, J

2000-06-01

The US Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Salem, Virginia provides mobile access to health care for over 4000 veterans in southwestern Virginia. This innovative program has joined community outreach with increased use of advanced practice nurses to provide health screenings, risk identification and stratification, education, and enrollment to veterans living in the facility's predominantly rural primary service area. Concurrently, veterans are placed within a comprehensive continuum of care through nurse practitioner intake and assessment clinics, primary care, or routine care every 4 months, with follow-up using the mobile program. Salem's mobile program is extremely effective in its clinical management and fiscal outcomes.

Cardiac magnetic resonance in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: current state of the art.

PubMed

Kwon, Deborah H; Desai, Milind Y

2010-01-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is a complex disorder with significant heterogeneity in clinical characteristics and natural history. Traditionally, the diagnosis has been based on clinical assessment and echocardiography; however, persistent challenges in its noninvasive evaluation remain. Hence, improved diagnostic techniques could lead to better risk stratification of patients, which would potentially identify patients likely to benefit from effective therapies. Recent studies have demonstrated the increasing utility of cardiac magnetic resonance in the management of this disease. With the increasing utilization of genetics, cardiac magnetic resonance is likely to play an even more important role in discerning the subtle morphologic differences seen in such patients with similar genotypic profiles.

NeuPAT: an intranet database supporting translational research in neuroblastic tumors.

PubMed

Villamón, Eva; Piqueras, Marta; Meseguer, Javier; Blanquer, Ignacio; Berbegall, Ana P; Tadeo, Irene; Hernández, Vicente; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

2013-03-01

Translational research in oncology is directed mainly towards establishing a better risk stratification and searching for appropriate therapeutic targets. This research generates a tremendous amount of complex clinical and biological data needing speedy and effective management. The authors describe the design, implementation and early experiences of a computer-aided system for the integration and management of data for neuroblastoma patients. NeuPAT facilitates clinical and translational research, minimizes the workload in consolidating the information, reduces errors and increases correlation of data through extensive coding. This design can also be applied to other tumor types. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Admission glucose does not improve GRACE score at 6 months and 5 years after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

de Mulder, Maarten; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; de Waard, Guus A; Boersma, Eric; Umans, Victor A

2011-01-01

Admission plasma glucose (APG) is a biomarker that predicts mortality in myocardial infarction (MI) patients. Therefore, APG may improve risk stratification based on the GRACE risk score. We collected data on baseline characteristics and long-term (median 55 months) outcome of 550 MI patients who entered our hospital in 2003 and 2006. We determined the GRACE risk score at admission for each patient, which was entered in a logistic regression model, together with APG, to evaluate their prognostic value for 6-month and 5-year mortality. Patients with APG ≥7.8 mmol/l had a higher mortality than those with APG levels <7.8 mmol/l; 6 months: 13.7 versus 3.6%, p value <0.001; 5 years: 20.4 versus 11.1%, p value 0.003. After adjustment for the GRACE risk score variables, APG appeared a significant predictor of 6-month and 5-year mortality, adjusted OR 1.17 (1.06-1.29) and 1.12 (1.03-1.22). The combination of the GRACE risk score and APG increased the model's performance (discrimination C-index 0.87 vs. 0.85), although the difference was not significant (p = 0.095). Combining the GRACE risk score and APG reclassified 12.9% of the patients, but the net reclassification improvement was nonsignificant (p = 0.146). APG is a predictor of 6-month and 5-year mortality, each mmol/l increase in APG being associated with a mortality increase of 17 and 12%, respectively, independent of the GRACE risk score. However, adding APG to the GRACE model did not result in significantly improved clinical risk stratification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Unanswered questions for management of acute coronary syndrome: risk stratification of patients with minimal disease or normal findings on coronary angiography.

PubMed

Bugiardini, Raffaele; Manfrini, Olivia; De Ferrari, Gaetano M

2006-07-10

The prognostic implication of chest pain associated with normal or near-normal findings on angiography is still unknown. We explored outcomes and methods of risk stratification in patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease in the setting of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. Data were pooled from 3 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials (TIMI 11B, TIMI 16, and TIMI 22). Angiographic data were available on 7656 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. The primary end point of this analysis was the composite of the rates of death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring rehospitalization, revascularization, and stroke at 1-year follow-up. Outcomes were evaluated by mean of the TIMI risk score for developing at least 1 component of the primary end point. Angiographic findings showed that 710 (9.1%) of 7656 patients had nonobstructive coronary artery disease; 48.7% of these had normal coronary arteries (0% stenosis), and 51.3% had mild coronary artery disease (>0% to <50% stenosis). A primary end-point event occurred in 101 patients (12.1%). It is noteworthy that a 2% event rate of deaths and myocardial infarctions had occurred in these patients at the 1-year follow-up. Event rates of death and myocardial infarction increased significantly as the TIMI risk score increased from 0.6% for a score of 1 to 4.0% for a score greater than 4. Patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes with nonobstructive coronary artery disease detected by angiography have a substantial risk of subsequent coronary events within 1 year. The risk is not univariately high, and the TIMI risk score helps to reveal patients at high risk.

A risk tertiles model for predicting mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: age, plateau pressure, and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset can predict mortality.

PubMed

Villar, Jesús; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Basaldúa, Santiago; Blanco, Jesús; Aguilar, Gerardo; Toral, Darío; Zavala, Elizabeth; Romera, Miguel A; González-Díaz, Gumersindo; Nogal, Frutos Del; Santos-Bouza, Antonio; Ramos, Luís; Macías, Santiago; Kacmarek, Robert M

2011-04-01

Predicting mortality has become a necessary step for selecting patients for clinical trials and defining outcomes. We examined whether stratification by tertiles of respiratory and ventilatory variables at the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) identifies patients with different risks of death in the intensive care unit. We performed a secondary analysis of data from 220 patients included in 2 multicenter prospective independent trials of ARDS patients mechanically ventilated with a lung-protective strategy. Using demographic, pulmonary, and ventilation data collected at ARDS onset, we derived and validated a simple prediction model based on a population-based stratification of variable values into low, middle, and high tertiles. The derivation cohort included 170 patients (all from one trial) and the validation cohort included 50 patients (all from a second trial). Tertile distribution for age, plateau airway pressure (P(plat)), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset identified subgroups with different mortalities, particularly for the highest-risk tertiles: age (> 62 years), P(plat) (> 29 cm H(2)O), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) (< 112 mm Hg). Risk was defined by the number of coexisting high-risk tertiles: patients with no high-risk tertiles had a mortality of 12%, whereas patients with 3 high-risk tertiles had 90% mortality (P < .001). A prediction model based on tertiles of patient age, P(plat), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at the time the patient meets ARDS criteria identifies patients with the lowest and highest risk of intensive care unit death.

Ionic Size Effects: Generalized Boltzmann Distributions, Counterion Stratification, and Modified Debye Length.

PubMed

Liu, Bo; Liu, Pei; Xu, Zhenli; Zhou, Shenggao

2013-10-01

Near a charged surface, counterions of different valences and sizes cluster; and their concentration profiles stratify. At a distance from such a surface larger than the Debye length, the electric field is screened by counterions. Recent studies by a variational mean-field approach that includes ionic size effects and by Monte Carlo simulations both suggest that the counterion stratification is determined by the ionic valence-to-volume ratios. Central in the mean-field approach is a free-energy functional of ionic concentrations in which the ionic size effects are included through the entropic effect of solvent molecules. The corresponding equilibrium conditions define the generalized Boltzmann distributions relating the ionic concentrations to the electrostatic potential. This paper presents a detailed analysis and numerical calculations of such a free-energy functional to understand the dependence of the ionic charge density on the electrostatic potential through the generalized Boltzmann distributions, the role of ionic valence-to-volume ratios in the counterion stratification, and the modification of Debye length due to the effect of ionic sizes.

Ionic Size Effects: Generalized Boltzmann Distributions, Counterion Stratification, and Modified Debye Length

PubMed Central

Liu, Bo; Liu, Pei; Xu, Zhenli; Zhou, Shenggao

2013-01-01

Near a charged surface, counterions of different valences and sizes cluster; and their concentration profiles stratify. At a distance from such a surface larger than the Debye length, the electric field is screened by counterions. Recent studies by a variational mean-field approach that includes ionic size effects and by Monte Carlo simulations both suggest that the counterion stratification is determined by the ionic valence-to-volume ratios. Central in the mean-field approach is a free-energy functional of ionic concentrations in which the ionic size effects are included through the entropic effect of solvent molecules. The corresponding equilibrium conditions define the generalized Boltzmann distributions relating the ionic concentrations to the electrostatic potential. This paper presents a detailed analysis and numerical calculations of such a free-energy functional to understand the dependence of the ionic charge density on the electrostatic potential through the generalized Boltzmann distributions, the role of ionic valence-to-volume ratios in the counterion stratification, and the modification of Debye length due to the effect of ionic sizes. PMID:24465094

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for risk stratification in obese and non-obese subjects from 10 populations.

PubMed

Hansen, T W; Thijs, L; Li, Y; Boggia, J; Liu, Y; Asayama, K; Kikuya, M; Björklund-Bodegård, K; Ohkubo, T; Jeppesen, J; Torp-Pedersen, C; Dolan, E; Kuznetsova, T; Stolarz-Skrzypek, K; Tikhonoff, V; Malyutina, S; Casiglia, E; Nikitin, Y; Lind, L; Sandoya, E; Kawecka-Jaszcz, K; Filipovský, J; Imai, Y; Wang, J; O'Brien, E; Staessen, J A

2014-09-01

Overweight clusters with high blood pressure (BP), but the independent contribution of both risk factors remains insufficiently documented. In a prospective population study involving 8467 participants (mean age 54.6 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations, we studied the contribution of body mass index (BMI) to risk over and beyond BP, taking advantage of the superiority of ambulatory over conventional BP. Over 10.6 years (median), 1271 participants (15.0%) died and 1092 (12.9%), 637 (7.5%) and 443 (5.2%) experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac or cerebrovascular event. Adjusted for sex and age, low BMI (<20.7 kg m(-2)) predicted death (hazard ratio (HR) vs average risk, 1.52; P<0.0001) and high BMI (> or = 30.9 kg m(-2)) predicted the cardiovascular end point (HR, 1.27; P=0.006). With adjustments including 24-h systolic BP, these HRs were 1.50 (P<0.001) and 0.98 (P=0.91), respectively. Across quartiles of the BMI distribution, 24-h and nighttime systolic BP predicted every end point (1.13 < or = standardized HR < or = 1.67; 0.046 < or = P<0.0001). The interaction between systolic BP and BMI was nonsignificant (P > or = .22). Excluding smokers removed the contribution of BMI categories to the prediction of mortality. In conclusion, BMI only adds to BP in risk stratification for mortality but not for cardiovascular outcomes. Smoking probably explains the association between increased mortality and low BMI.

[Essential thrombocythemia: baseline characteristics and risk factors for survival and thrombosis in a series of 214 patients].

PubMed

Angona, Anna; Alvarez-Larrán, Alberto; Bellosillo, Beatriz; Martínez-Avilés, Luz; Garcia-Pallarols, Francesc; Longarón, Raquel; Ancochea, Àgueda; Besses, Carles

2015-03-15

Two prognostic models to predict overall survival and thrombosis-free survival have been proposed: International Prognostic Score for Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET) and IPSET-Thrombosis, respectively, based on age, leukocytes count, history of previous thrombosis, the presence of cardiovascular risk factors and the JAK2 mutational status. The aim of the present study was to assess the clinical and biological characteristics at diagnosis and during evolution in essential thrombocythemia (ET) patients as well as the factors associated with survival and thrombosis and the usefulness of these new prognostic models. We have evaluated the clinical data and the mutation status of JAK2, MPL and calreticulin of 214 ET patients diagnosed in a single center between 1985 and 2012, classified according to classical risk stratification, IPSET and IPSET-Thrombosis. With a median follow-up of 6.9 years, overall survival was not associated with any variable by multivariate analysis. Thrombotic history and leukocytes>10×10(9)/l were associated with thrombosis-free survival (TFS). In our series, IPSET prognostic systems of survival and thrombosis did not provide more clinically relevant information regarding the classic risk of thrombosis stratification. Thrombotic history and leukocytosis>10×10(9)/l were significantly associated with lower TFS, while the prognostic IPSET-Thrombosis system did not provide more information than classical thrombotic risk assessment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Recursive partition analysis of peritoneal and systemic recurrence in patients with gastric cancer who underwent D2 gastrectomy: Implications for neoadjuvant therapy consideration.

PubMed

Chang, Jee Suk; Kim, Kyung Hwan; Keum, Ki Chang; Noh, Sung Hoon; Lim, Joon Seok; Kim, Hyo Song; Rha, Sun Young; Lee, Yong Chan; Hyung, Woo Jin; Koom, Woong Sub

2016-12-01

To classify patients with nonmetastatic advanced gastric cancer who underwent D2-gastrectomy into prognostic groups based on peritoneal and systemic recurrence risks. Between 2004 and 2007, 1,090 patients with T3-4 or N+ gastric cancer were identified from our registry. Recurrence rates were estimated using a competing-risk analysis. Different prognostic groups were defined using recursive partitioning analysis (RPA). Median follow-up was 7 years. In the RPA-model for peritoneal recurrence risk, the initial node was split by T stage, indicating that differences between patients with T1-3 and T4 cancer were the greatest. The 5-year peritoneal recurrence rates for patients with T4 (n = 627) and T1-3 (n = 463) disease were 34.3% and 9.1%, respectively. N stage and neural invasion had an additive impact on high-risk patients. The RPA model for systemic relapse incorporated N stage alone and gave two terminal nodes: N0-2 (n = 721) and N3 (n = 369). The 5-year cumulative incidences were 7.7% and 24.5%, respectively. We proposed risk stratification models of peritoneal and systemic recurrence in patients undergoing D2-gastrectomy. This classification could be used for stratification protocols in future studies evaluating adjuvant therapies such as preoperative chemoradiotherapy. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:859-864. © 2016 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genotype-Specific Minimal Residual Disease Interpretation Improves Stratification in Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

PubMed Central

O’Connor, David; Enshaei, Amir; Bartram, Jack; Hancock, Jeremy; Harrison, Christine J.; Hough, Rachael; Samarasinghe, Sujith; Schwab, Claire; Vora, Ajay; Wade, Rachel; Moppett, John; Moorman, Anthony V.; Goulden, Nick

2018-01-01

Purpose Minimal residual disease (MRD) and genetic abnormalities are important risk factors for outcome in acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Current risk algorithms dichotomize MRD data and do not assimilate genetics when assigning MRD risk, which reduces predictive accuracy. The aim of our study was to exploit the full power of MRD by examining it as a continuous variable and to integrate it with genetics. Patients and Methods We used a population-based cohort of 3,113 patients who were treated in UKALL2003, with a median follow-up of 7 years. MRD was evaluated by polymerase chain reaction analysis of Ig/TCR gene rearrangements, and patients were assigned to a genetic subtype on the basis of immunophenotype, cytogenetics, and fluorescence in situ hybridization. To examine response kinetics at the end of induction, we log-transformed the absolute MRD value and examined its distribution across subgroups. Results MRD was log normally distributed at the end of induction. MRD distributions of patients with distinct genetic subtypes were different (P < .001). Patients with good-risk cytogenetics demonstrated the fastest disease clearance, whereas patients with high-risk genetics and T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia responded more slowly. The risk of relapse was correlated with MRD kinetics, and each log reduction in disease level reduced the risk by 20% (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83; P < .001). Although the risk of relapse was directly proportional to the MRD level within each genetic risk group, absolute relapse rate that was associated with a specific MRD value or category varied significantly by genetic subtype. Integration of genetic subtype–specific MRD values allowed more refined risk group stratification. Conclusion A single threshold for assigning patients to an MRD risk group does not reflect the response kinetics of the different genetic subtypes. Future risk algorithms should integrate genetics with MRD to accurately identify patients with the lowest and highest risk of relapse. PMID:29131699

Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Lip, Gregory Y H; Hansen, Morten Lock; Hansen, Peter Riis; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Ahlehoff, Ole; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2011-01-31

To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Registry based cohort study. Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Stroke and thromboembolism. Of 121,280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73,538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at "low risk" (score = 0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS(2) and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc at one year's follow-up. In patients at "intermediate risk" (score = 1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS(2) and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years' follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS(2) and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc performed better than CHADS(2) in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism.

Prognostic value of the serum free light chain ratio in newly diagnosed myeloma: proposed incorporation into the international staging system.

PubMed

Snozek, C L H; Katzmann, J A; Kyle, R A; Dispenzieri, A; Larson, D R; Therneau, T M; Melton, L J; Kumar, S; Greipp, P R; Clark, R J; Rajkumar, S V

2008-10-01

To determine if the serum free light chain (FLC) ratio has prognostic value in patients with symptomatic multiple myeloma (MM), baseline serum samples from a well-characterized cohort of 790 newly diagnosed MM patients were tested with the FLC assay. FLC ratio was calculated as kappa/lambda (reference range 0.26-1.65). On the basis of the distribution of values, a cutpoint kappa/lambda FLC ratio of <0.03 or >32 was chosen for further analysis. Overall survival was significantly inferior in patients with an abnormal FLC ratio of <0.03 or >32 (n=479) compared with those with an FLC ratio between 0.03 and 32 (n=311), with median survival of 30 versus 39 months, respectively. We incorporated abnormal FLC ratio with the International Staging System (ISS) risk factors (that is, albumin <3.5 g/dl and serum beta(2)-microglobulin >or=3.5 g/l), to create a risk stratification model with improved prognostic capabilities. Patients with 0, 1, 2 or 3 adverse risk factors had significantly different overall survival, with median survival times of 51, 39, 30 and 22 months, respectively (P<0.001). These findings suggest that the serum FLC ratio at initial diagnosis is an important predictor of prognosis in myeloma, and can be incorporated into the ISS for improved risk stratification.

Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

PubMed Central

Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

2016-01-01

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime. PMID:27074883