The Effect of Psychological Distance on Children's Reasoning about Future Preferences.

PubMed

Lee, Wendy S C; Atance, Cristina M

2016-01-01

Young preschool-aged children often have difficulty thinking about the future, but tend to reason better about another person's future than their own. This benefit may reflect psychological distance from one's own emotions, beliefs, and states that may bias thinking. In adults, reasoning for others who are more socially distant (i.e., dissimilar, unfamiliar other) is associated with wiser and more adaptive reasoning. The current studies examined whether this effect of social distance could be demonstrated in young children's future thinking. In a future preferences task, 3- and 4-year-olds were shown 5 pairs of child and adult items and selected which ones they would prefer when grown-up. Children answered for themselves, a socially close peer, or a socially distant peer. Social distance was manipulated by varying similarity in Study 1 and familiarity in Study 2. In Study 1, reasoning for similar and dissimilar peers was significantly more accurate than reasoning for the self, but reasoning for similar and dissimilar peers did not differ. In Study 2, scores showed a step-wise increase from self, familiar peer, to unfamiliar peer, but only reasoning for an unfamiliar peer was significantly better more accurate than reasoning for the self. Reasoning for a familiar peer did not differ from reasoning for the self or for an unfamiliar peer. These results suggest that, like adults, children benefit from psychological distance when reasoning for others, but are less sensitive to degrees of social distance, showing no graded effects on performance in Study 1 and weak effects in Study 2. Stronger adult-like effects may only emerge with increasing age and development of other socio-cognitive skills.

The Effect of Psychological Distance on Children’s Reasoning about Future Preferences

PubMed Central

Lee, Wendy S. C.; Atance, Cristina M.

2016-01-01

Young preschool-aged children often have difficulty thinking about the future, but tend to reason better about another person’s future than their own. This benefit may reflect psychological distance from one’s own emotions, beliefs, and states that may bias thinking. In adults, reasoning for others who are more socially distant (i.e., dissimilar, unfamiliar other) is associated with wiser and more adaptive reasoning. The current studies examined whether this effect of social distance could be demonstrated in young children’s future thinking. In a future preferences task, 3- and 4-year-olds were shown 5 pairs of child and adult items and selected which ones they would prefer when grown-up. Children answered for themselves, a socially close peer, or a socially distant peer. Social distance was manipulated by varying similarity in Study 1 and familiarity in Study 2. In Study 1, reasoning for similar and dissimilar peers was significantly more accurate than reasoning for the self, but reasoning for similar and dissimilar peers did not differ. In Study 2, scores showed a step-wise increase from self, familiar peer, to unfamiliar peer, but only reasoning for an unfamiliar peer was significantly better more accurate than reasoning for the self. Reasoning for a familiar peer did not differ from reasoning for the self or for an unfamiliar peer. These results suggest that, like adults, children benefit from psychological distance when reasoning for others, but are less sensitive to degrees of social distance, showing no graded effects on performance in Study 1 and weak effects in Study 2. Stronger adult-like effects may only emerge with increasing age and development of other socio-cognitive skills. PMID:27741264

Hopelessness and future thinking in parasuicide: the role of perfectionism.

PubMed

Hunter, Elizabeth C; O'Connor, Rory C

2003-11-01

This study had three aims: (1) to independently replicate the future thinking effect, that parasuicides, when compared with controls, show a deficit in positive future thinking but no increase in negative future thinking; (2) to determine whether positive future thinking and socially prescribed perfectionism discriminate general hospital parasuicides from controls beyond measures of affect and; (3) to explore the relationship between future thinking and perfectionism. A cross-sectional design was employed. Three groups of participants took part: hospital parasuicide patients (N=22), hospital controls (N=22) and community controls (N=21). Parasuicide patients admitted, via accident and emergency, to a general hospital were matched with hospital and community controls and assessed on measures of hopelessness, depression, anxiety, perfectionism, and future thinking. There was evidence to support the future thinking effect. A discriminant function analysis revealed that social perfectionism and positive future thinking did indeed discriminate parasuicides from controls beyond the effects of hopelessness, depression, and anxiety. Exploratory relationships between perfectionism and positive future thinking were also reported. The results reinforce the importance of future thinking in parasuicide. Moreover, the role of social perfectionism in the suicidal process was elucidated and ought to be replicated within a prospective design.

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents☆

PubMed Central

Marotta, Phillip L.; Voisin, Dexter R.

2017-01-01

Objective Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. Methods A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Results Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Conclusions Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation. PMID:28974824

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents.

PubMed

Marotta, Phillip L; Voisin, Dexter R

2017-04-01

Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation.

Future Orientation, Impulsivity, and Problem Behaviors: A Longitudinal Moderation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

2011-01-01

In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity;…

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: intersections between memory and decisions.

PubMed

Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K

2015-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one's personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one's personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: Intersections between memory and decisions

PubMed Central

Schacter, Daniel L.; Benoit, Roland G.; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K.

2014-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one’s personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one’s personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. PMID:24373942

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Owens Community College: A Case Study on the Effects of Politics, Economics, Social Factors, and Technological Factors on Future Educational Delivery Strategies, Space Needs, and Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paskvan, Brian A.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this case study was to explore the influence of four factors--politics, economics, society, and technology--on educational delivery strategies, space needs, and design at Owens Community College. The future effects of these factors on the college were predicted four to six years from the time the study was conducted. The researcher…

Improving prospective memory performance with future event simulation in traumatic brain injury patients.

PubMed

Mioni, Giovanna; Bertucci, Erica; Rosato, Antonella; Terrett, Gill; Rendell, Peter G; Zamuner, Massimo; Stablum, Franca

2017-06-01

Previous studies have shown that traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients have difficulties with prospective memory (PM). Considering that PM is closely linked to independent living it is of primary interest to develop strategies that can improve PM performance in TBI patients. This study employed Virtual Week task as a measure of PM, and we included future event simulation to boost PM performance. Study 1 evaluated the efficacy of the strategy and investigated possible practice effects. Twenty-four healthy participants performed Virtual Week in a no strategy condition, and 24 healthy participants performed it in a mixed condition (no strategy - future event simulation). In Study 2, 18 TBI patients completed the mixed condition of Virtual Week and were compared with the 24 healthy controls who undertook the mixed condition of Virtual Week in Study 1. All participants also completed a neuropsychological evaluation to characterize the groups on level of cognitive functioning. Study 1 showed that participants in the future event simulation condition outperformed participants in the no strategy condition, and these results were not attributable to practice effects. Results of Study 2 showed that TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, but that future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. The future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. These studies showed the value of future event simulation strategy in improving PM performance in healthy participants as well as in TBI patients. TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, confirming prospective memory impairment in these patients. Participants in the future event simulation condition out-performed participants in the no strategy condition. Future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. Future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

A Reduction in Delay Discounting by Using Episodic Future Imagination and the Association with Episodic Memory Capacity

PubMed Central

Hu, Xiaochen; Kleinschmidt, Helena; Martin, Jason A.; Han, Ying; Thelen, Manuela; Meiberth, Dix; Jessen, Frank; Weber, Bernd

2017-01-01

Delay discounting (DD) refers to the phenomenon that individuals discount future consequences. Previous studies showed that future imagination reduces DD, which was mediated by functional connectivity between medial prefrontal valuation areas and a key region for episodic memory (hippocampus). Future imagination involves an initial period of construction and a later period of elaboration, with the more elaborative latter period recruiting more cortical regions. This study examined whether elaborative future imagination modulated DD, and if so, what are the underlying neural substrates. It was assumed that cortical areas contribute to the modulation effect during the later period of imagination. Since future imagination is supported by episodic memory capacity, we additionally hypothesize that the neural network underlying the modulation effect is related to individual episodic memory capacity. Twenty-two subjects received an extensive interview on personal future events, followed by an fMRI DD experiment with and without the need to perform elaborative future imagination simultaneously. Subjects' episodic memory capacity was also assessed. Behavioral results replicate previous findings of a reduced discount rate in the DD plus imagination condition compared to the DD only condition. The behavioral effect positively correlated with: (i) subjective value signal changes in midline brain structures during the initial imagination period; and (ii) signal changes in left prefrontoparietal areas during the later imagination period. Generalized psychophysiological interaction (gPPI) analyses reveal positive correlations between the behavioral effect and functional connectivity among the following areas: right anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and left hippocampus; left inferior parietal cortex (IPC) and left hippocampus; and left IPC and bilateral occipital cortices. These changes in functional connectivity are also associated with episodic memory capacity. A hierarchical multiple regression indicates that the model with both the valuation related signal changes in the right ACC and the imagination related signal changes in the left IPC best predicts the reduction in DD. This study illustrates interactions between the left hippocampus and multiple cortical regions underlying the modulation effect of elaborative episodic future imagination, demonstrating, for the first time, empirical support for a relation to individual episodic memory capacity. PMID:28105009

A Reduction in Delay Discounting by Using Episodic Future Imagination and the Association with Episodic Memory Capacity.

PubMed

Hu, Xiaochen; Kleinschmidt, Helena; Martin, Jason A; Han, Ying; Thelen, Manuela; Meiberth, Dix; Jessen, Frank; Weber, Bernd

2016-01-01

Delay discounting (DD) refers to the phenomenon that individuals discount future consequences. Previous studies showed that future imagination reduces DD, which was mediated by functional connectivity between medial prefrontal valuation areas and a key region for episodic memory (hippocampus). Future imagination involves an initial period of construction and a later period of elaboration, with the more elaborative latter period recruiting more cortical regions. This study examined whether elaborative future imagination modulated DD, and if so, what are the underlying neural substrates. It was assumed that cortical areas contribute to the modulation effect during the later period of imagination. Since future imagination is supported by episodic memory capacity, we additionally hypothesize that the neural network underlying the modulation effect is related to individual episodic memory capacity. Twenty-two subjects received an extensive interview on personal future events, followed by an fMRI DD experiment with and without the need to perform elaborative future imagination simultaneously. Subjects' episodic memory capacity was also assessed. Behavioral results replicate previous findings of a reduced discount rate in the DD plus imagination condition compared to the DD only condition. The behavioral effect positively correlated with: (i) subjective value signal changes in midline brain structures during the initial imagination period; and (ii) signal changes in left prefrontoparietal areas during the later imagination period. Generalized psychophysiological interaction (gPPI) analyses reveal positive correlations between the behavioral effect and functional connectivity among the following areas: right anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and left hippocampus; left inferior parietal cortex (IPC) and left hippocampus; and left IPC and bilateral occipital cortices. These changes in functional connectivity are also associated with episodic memory capacity. A hierarchical multiple regression indicates that the model with both the valuation related signal changes in the right ACC and the imagination related signal changes in the left IPC best predicts the reduction in DD. This study illustrates interactions between the left hippocampus and multiple cortical regions underlying the modulation effect of elaborative episodic future imagination, demonstrating, for the first time, empirical support for a relation to individual episodic memory capacity.

Does a future-oriented temporal perspective relate to body mass index, eating, and exercise? A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sweeney, Allison M; Culcea, Ileana

2017-05-01

The present study aimed to quantify the magnitude of the association between future temporal perspective and Body Mass Index (BMI), diet, and exercise, respectively, and to clarify whether subjective future-focus scales or delay-discounting tasks are a more robust predictor of health behaviors. A systematic search was conducted for studies that included a dispositional measure of future temporal perspective and a measure of BMI, eating, and/or exercise behavior. Effect sizes for BMI, eating, and exercise were calculated using a random-effects model. The aggregate effect sizes for BMI (r = 0.14, k = 36, 95% CI = 0.10 - 0.18, p < 0.001), eating (r = 0.16, k = 18, 95% CI = 0.12-0.21, p < 0.001), and exercise (r = 0.12, k = 18, 95% CI = 0.09-0.14, p < 0.001) were significant and small in magnitude. Neither the type of future temporal perspective task (delay-discounting vs. subjective future-focus scale) nor the percentage of obese participants moderated the effect of temporal perspective on BMI, eating, or exercise. Although small in magnitude, the association between temporal perspective and health outcomes is comparable to other individual differences, such as personality and temperament. Future research is needed to examine how increasing the value placed on future outcomes can be integrated into long-term health behavior change interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future orientation and competence to stand trial: the fragility of competence.

PubMed

Kivisto, Aaron J; Moore, Todd M; Fite, Paula A; Seidner, Bruce G

2011-01-01

The current study examined the direct, indirect, and interactive effects of age, intellectual ability, psychiatric symptomatology, and future orientation on juvenile adjudicative competence utilizing a secondary sample of 927 youth from the MacArthur Juvenile Adjudicative Competence Study. Consistent with previous research, age, intellectual ability, and future orientation were found to be positively associated with competence, and psychiatric symptomatology was weakly negatively related to competence. Tests of indirect effects revealed that the development of an orientation toward future consequences partially explains the relationship between age and the capacity to reason about legal decision-making. Further, tests of invariance revealed that the competence of immature adolescents is particularly "fragile," in that smaller deficits in cognitive abilities appear to pose greater problems in youths regarding their adjudicative competence than in their more mature peers. Findings are discussed in regard to forensic practice as well as for future research.

Effects of future space vehicle operations on a single day in the National Airspace System : a fast-time computer simulation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

This document describes the objectives, methods, analyses, and results of a study used to quantify the effects of future space operations : on the National Airspace System (NAS), and to demonstrate the possible benefits of one proposed strategy to mi...

Self-control and Task Timing Shift Self-efficacy and Influence Willingness to Engage in Effortful Tasks

PubMed Central

Ein-Gar, Danit; Steinhart, Yael

2017-01-01

Self-efficacy constitutes a key factor that influences people's inclination to engage in effortful tasks. In this study, we focus on an interesting interplay between two prominent factors known to influence engagement in effortful tasks: the timing of the task (i.e., whether the task is scheduled to take place in the near or distant future) and individuals' levels of self-control. Across three studies, we show that these two factors have an interacting effect on self-efficacy. Low self-control (LSC) individuals report higher self-efficacy for distant-future effortful tasks than for near-future tasks, whereas high self-control (HSC) individuals report higher self-efficacy for near-future tasks than for distant future tasks. We further demonstrate how self-efficacy then molds individuals' willingness to engage in those effortful tasks. Given that a particular task may comprise effortful aspects alongside more enjoyable aspects, we show that the effects we observe emerge with regard to a task whose effortful aspects are salient and that the effects are eliminated when the enjoyable aspects of that same task are highlighted. PMID:29075225

Effect of temperature shock and inventory surprises on natural gas and heating oil futures returns.

PubMed

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Hu, Yi-Chung; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station.

Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

PubMed Central

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

PubMed

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia

PubMed Central

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

The anticipated transition to adulthood: effects of culture and individual experience on Polish and Finnish adolescents' future orientations.

PubMed

Trempala, J; Malmberg, L E

1998-05-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the effect of a set of individual resources and cultural factors on adolescents' probability estimations of the occurrence of positive future events in three life domains: education, occupation, and family. The hypothesis was that the effects of culture and individual resources are interwoven in the formation process of future orientation. The sample consisted of 352 17-year-old Polish and Finnish girls and boys from vocational and upper secondary schools. The 78-item questionnaire developed by the authors was used to measure different aspects of future orientation (probability, valence, and extension of future events in three life domains) and individual resources (self-esteem, control beliefs, and social knowledge about normatively and the generation gap). Data analysis showed that culture separately affected individual resources and adolescents' expectations. However, the results broadly confirmed the thesis that the culture has a limited effect on adolescents' expectations of the occurrence of future events. Moreover, these data suggested that the influence of sociocultural differences on adolescents' probability estimations is indirect. In the context of the presented data, the authors discuss their model of future orientation.

The parallel impact of episodic memory and episodic future thinking on food intake.

PubMed

Vartanian, Lenny R; Chen, William H; Reily, Natalie M; Castel, Alan D

2016-06-01

This research examined the effects of both episodic memory and episodic future thinking (EFT) on snack food intake. In Study 1, female participants (n = 158) were asked to recall their lunch from earlier in the day, to think about the dinner they planned to have later in the day, or to think about a non-food activity before taking part in a cookie taste test. Participants who recalled their lunch or who thought about their dinner ate less than did participants who thought about non-food activities. These effects were not explained by group differences in the hedonic value of the food. Study 2 examined whether the suppression effect observed in Study 1 was driven by a general health consciousness. Female participants (n = 74) were asked to think about their past or future exercise (or a non-exercise activity), but thinking about exercise had no impact on participants' cookie consumption. Overall, both thinking about past food intake and imagining future food intake had the same suppression effect on participants' current food intake, but further research is needed to determine the underlying mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Personality Traits through Habit and Intention on Determining Future Preferences of Public Transport Use

PubMed Central

Yazdanpanah, Mahdi; Hadji Hosseinlou, Mansour

2017-01-01

A complex set of factors may affect transportation mode choice. While earlier studies have often considered objective factors in determining preferences of public transport use as a sustainable transportation, subjective factors such as personality traits are underexplored. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the influence of personality traits on the number of future public transport use. Additionally, “car habit” and “intention toward using public modes” were considered to be important. For this purpose, a case study from departure passengers at Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKIA, Tehran, Iran) was conducted between January and February 2015 at IKIA. Results of structural equation modeling (SEM) shows that only neuroticism and extraversion personality traits were significant in determining future public transportation mode choice. However, the model indicates that these traits indirectly influence intention and car habit. Neuroticism was found to have a total effect of −0.022 on future public transport use, which represents a negative association with public transport use, while extraversion positively influenced future public transport use with a total effect of 0.031. Moreover, the results found interestingly that car access had a better fit to the data than the number of cars in household (NCH); both had significant positive effect on car habit, but only car access had a significant influence on intention. Furthermore, the effect of socio-demographic variables such as age, gender, educational level, income level, and body mass index (BMI) were determined to be significant in identifying choice of future transport mode to airports, which is explained in the discussion section of this paper. PMID:28218641

Episodic Future Thinking in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terrett, Gill; Rendell, Peter G.; Raponi-Saunders, Sandra; Henry, Julie D.; Bailey, Phoebe E.; Altgassen, Mareike

2013-01-01

The capacity to imagine oneself experiencing future events has important implications for effective daily living but investigation of this ability in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is limited. This study investigated future thinking in 30 children with high functioning ASD (IQ > 85) and 30 typically developing children. They completed the…

Thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, and depression among asian americans: A longitudinal study of interpersonal shame as a mediator and perfectionistic family discrepancy as a moderator.

PubMed

Carrera, Stephanie G; Wei, Meifen

2017-04-01

This short-term longitudinal study applied Joiner's (2005) Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicide to Asian Americans' experiences with depression. Interpersonal shame (i.e., the experience of inadequacy arising from interpersonal concerns) was hypothesized to mediate the effects of (a) thwarted belongingness and (b) perceived burdensomeness on future depression. Furthermore, the positive associations between (a) thwarted belongingness and (b) perceived burdensomeness on future depression were hypothesized to vary depending on students' experiences with perfectionistic family discrepancy (PFD; their perceived gap between their actual performance and what their parents expect of them). A total of 605 Asian Americans attending predominantly White, Midwestern universities completed 3 online surveys. Conditional process modeling via Hayes's (2013) PROCESS was used to analyze the data. Results demonstrated that (a) thwarted belongingness and (b) perceived burdensomeness contributed to higher interpersonal shame, which influenced students' future depression. Furthermore, the effect of thwarted belongingness on future depression was significantly positive for those with PFD levels greater than the 12th percentile, after taking into account students' initial level of depression. The effect of perceived burdensomeness on future depression was not significant for those with PFD levels greater than the 3.5th percentile. This study identified that students with perfectionistic family discrepancy may be at higher risk for depression while experiencing thwarted belongingness. Overall, findings supported using Joiner's (2005) theory to understand Asian American students' risk for future depression. Future studies may gather data across Asian American students' years in college. Counselors can apply these findings to increase students' awareness about possible risk factors for depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

Current and Future Effects of Mexican Immigration in California. Executive Summary. R-3365/1-CR.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Kevin F.; Valdez, R. Burciaga

This study to assess the current situation of Mexican immigrants in California and project future possibilities constructs a demographic profile of the immigrants, examines their economic effects on the state, and describes their socioeconomic integration into California society. Models of immigration/integration processes are developed and used…

Mental Contrasting of a Negative Future with a Positive Reality Regulates State Anxiety

PubMed Central

Brodersen, Gunnar; Oettingen, Gabriele

2017-01-01

Mental contrasting of a desired future with impeding reality is a self-regulatory strategy fostering goal pursuit. However, there is little research on mental contrasting of a negative future with a positive reality. We conducted two experiments, each with four experimental conditions, investigating the effects of mental contrasting a negative future with a positive reality on state anxiety: participants who mentally contrasted a negative future regarding a bacterial epidemic (Study 1, N = 199) or an idiosyncratic negative event (Study 2, N = 206) showed less state anxiety than participants who imagined the negative future only or who reverse contrasted; participants who mentally elaborated on the positive reality also showed less state anxiety. Our findings suggest that mental contrasting of a negative future helps people reduce disproportional anxiety regarding a negative future. PMID:28979223

The Effect of the Time of Injection of Intrathecal Analgesia on the Length of Early and Advanced Labor

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-01-03

drug combinations. Intrathecal Analgesia 36 Future Studies Recommendations for future studies include a prospective randomized clinical trial to examine...second stages of labor because of the variations in client population and in clinical practice. Friedman (1978) Intrathecal Analgesia 7 however, does...that the administration of morphine into the subarchnoid space of rats produced potent analgesia (Wang, 1977). These effects were then clinically applied

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

Effects of Consideration of Future Consequences and Temporal Framing on Acceptance of the HPV Vaccine Among Young Adults.

PubMed

Kim, Jarim; Nan, Xiaoli

2016-09-01

This study examines how individual difference in consideration of future consequences (CFC) and temporal framing (i.e., present- vs. future-oriented message) interact to influence the persuasive outcomes of a health message promoting human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination among young adults. Results of an experiment (N = 416) showed a significant interaction effect of CFC and temporal framing on persuasion. The nature of the interaction suggested that individuals with high CFC generally were more persuaded by the present-oriented messages, compared to the future-oriented messages. On the other hand, those with low CFC responded similarly to the present- and future-oriented messages. Implications of the findings for HPV vaccination messaging are discussed.

Group processing in an undergraduate biology course for preservice teachers: Experiences and attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schellenberger, Lauren Brownback

Group processing is a key principle of cooperative learning in which small groups discuss their strengths and weaknesses and set group goals or norms. However, group processing has not been well-studied at the post-secondary level or from a qualitative or mixed methods perspective. This mixed methods study uses a phenomenological framework to examine the experience of group processing for students in an undergraduate biology course for preservice teachers. The effect of group processing on students' attitudes toward future group work and group processing is also examined. Additionally, this research investigated preservice teachers' plans for incorporating group processing into future lessons. Students primarily experienced group processing as a time to reflect on past performance. Also, students experienced group processing as a time to increase communication among group members and become motivated for future group assignments. Three factors directly influenced students' experiences with group processing: (1) previous experience with group work, (2) instructor interaction, and (3) gender. Survey data indicated that group processing had a slight positive effect on students' attitudes toward future group work and group processing. Participants who were interviewed felt that group processing was an important part of group work and that it had increased their group's effectiveness as well as their ability to work effectively with other people. Participants held positive views on group work prior to engaging in group processing, and group processing did not alter their atittude toward group work. Preservice teachers who were interviewed planned to use group work and a modified group processing protocol in their future classrooms. They also felt that group processing had prepared them for their future professions by modeling effective collaboration and group skills. Based on this research, a new model for group processing has been created which includes extensive instructor interaction and additional group processing sessions. This study offers a new perspective on the phenomenon of group processing and informs science educators and teacher educators on the effective implementation of this important component of small-group learning.

Sulfur mustard skin lesions: A systematic review on pathomechanisms, treatment options and future research directions.

PubMed

Rose, Dorothee; Schmidt, Annette; Brandenburger, Matthias; Sturmheit, Tabea; Zille, Marietta; Boltze, Johannes

2018-09-01

Sulfur mustard (SM) is a chemical warfare, which has been used for one hundred years. However, its exact pathomechanisms are still incompletely understood and there is no specific therapy available so far. In this systematic review, studies published between January 2000 and July 2017 involving pathomechanisms and experimental treatments of SM-induced skin lesions were analyzed to summarize current knowledge on SM pathology, to provide an overview on novel treatment options, and to identify promising targets for future research to more effectively counter SM effects. We suggest that future studies should focus on (I) systemic effects of SM intoxication due to its distribution throughout the body, (II) removal of SM depots that continuously release active compound contributing to chronic skin damage, and (III) therapeutic options that counteract the pleiotropic effects of SM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Training Programs of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, 1971-1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Inst. of General Medical Sciences (NIH), Bethesda, MD.

The study predicts future requirements for biological scientists by specialty area, future supply within area, and the effects of National Institutes of Health program alternatives on requirements and supply measures. At present and for the forseeable future, approved training grants for critical shortage areas are funded as rapidly as centers of…

Future Perfect?: Teachers' Expectations and Explanations of Their Latino Immigrant Students' Postsecondary Futures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dabach, Dafney Blanca; Suárez-Orozco, Carola; Hernandez, Sera J.; Brooks, Maneka Deanna

2018-01-01

Teacher expectancy research has demonstrated the greatest effects for members of racialized groups. Most research has focused on students' near-term abilities; missing are understandings of how teachers perceive their students' future trajectories. Drawing on social mirroring and attribution theories, this study investigates how 14 elementary,…

Get Real: Effects of Repeated Simulation and Emotion on the Perceived Plausibility of Future Experiences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Szpunar, Karl K.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2013-01-01

People frequently imagine specific interpersonal experiences that might occur in their futures. The present study used a novel experimental paradigm to examine the influence of repeated simulation of future interpersonal experiences on subjective assessments of plausibility for positive, negative, and neutral events. The results demonstrate that…

An empirical study on information spillover effects between the Chinese copper futures market and spot market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangli; Cheng, Siwei; Wang, Shouyang; Hong, Yongmiao; Li, Yi

2008-02-01

This study employs a parametric approach based on TGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the VaR of the copper futures market and spot market in China. Considering the short selling mechanism in the futures market, the paper introduces two new notions: upside VaR and extreme upside risk spillover. And downside VaR and upside VaR are examined by using the above approach. Also, we use Kupiec’s [P.H. Kupiec, Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models, Journal of Derivatives 3 (1995) 73-84] backtest to test the power of our approaches. In addition, we investigate information spillover effects between the futures market and the spot market by employing a linear Granger causality test, and Granger causality tests in mean, volatility and risk respectively. Moreover, we also investigate the relationship between the futures market and the spot market by using a test based on a kernel function. Empirical results indicate that there exist significant two-way spillovers between the futures market and the spot market, and the spillovers from the futures market to the spot market are much more striking.

Time perspective as a determinant of smoking cessation in four countries: Direct and mediated effects from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) 4-Country Surveys

PubMed Central

Hall, Peter A.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Meng, Gang

2015-01-01

Background Future oriented time perspective predicts a number of important health behaviors and outcomes, including smoking cessation. However, it is not known how future orientation exerts its effects on such outcomes, and no large scale cross-national studies have examined the question prospectively. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the relationship between time perspective and success in smoking cessation, and social cognitive mediators of the association. Methods The ITC-4 is a multi-wave, four country survey (Australia, Canada, United States, United Kingdom) of current smokers (N=9,772); the survey includes baseline measurements of time perspective, intentions, quit attempts, and self-reported quit status at follow-up over 8 years. We examined the predictive power of time perspective for smoking cessation, as mediated through strength of quit intentions and prior history of quit attempts. Results Findings indicated that those smokers with a stronger future orientation at baseline were more likely to have successfully quit at follow-up. This effect was partially explained by intention-mediated effects of future orientation on quit attempts. Conclusions Future orientation predicts smoking cessation across four English-speaking countries; the cessation-facilitating effects of future orientation may be primarily due to future oriented individuals’ motivated and sustained involvement in the quit cycle over time. PMID:24747807

Time perspective as a determinant of smoking cessation in four countries: Direct and mediated effects from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) 4-Country Surveys.

PubMed

Hall, Peter A; Fong, Geoffrey T; Meng, Gang

2014-07-01

Future oriented time perspective predicts a number of important health behaviors and outcomes, including smoking cessation. However, it is not known how future orientation exerts its effects on such outcomes, and no large scale cross-national studies have examined the question prospectively. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the relationship between time perspective and success in smoking cessation, and social cognitive mediators of the association. The ITC-4 is a multi-wave, four country survey (Australia, Canada, United States, United Kingdom) of current smokers (N=9772); the survey includes baseline measurements of time perspective, intentions, quit attempts, and self-reported quit status at follow-up over 8 years. We examined the predictive power of time perspective for smoking cessation, as mediated through strength of quit intentions and prior history of quit attempts. Findings indicated that those smokers with a stronger future orientation at baseline were more likely to have successfully quit at follow-up. This effect was partially explained by intention-mediated effects of future orientation on quit attempts. Future orientation predicts smoking cessation across four English-speaking countries; the cessation-facilitating effects of future orientation may be primarily due to future oriented individuals' motivated and sustained involvement in the quit cycle over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: A case study in Asia

DOE PAGES

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; ...

2016-03-30

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

The Effects of Parents' Employment Status and Financial Security on the Cognitive Home Environment and on Expectations for Their Children's Futures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harold-Goldsmith, Rena

A study undertaken in 1983-85 examined the effects of job loss and financial stress on the cognitive stimulation provided for children in the home and parents' confidence regarding their children's future. Effects of parents' educational level were also considered. It was hypothesized that when parents were unemployed, or had a grim view of the…

Improving Assistive Technology Service by Using 3D Printing: Three Case Studies.

PubMed

Watanabe, Takashi; Hatakeyama, Takuro; Tomiita, Mitsuru

2015-01-01

Assistive technology services are essential for adapting assistive devices to the individual needs of users with disabilities. In this study, we attempted to apply three-dimensional (3D) printing technology to three actual cases, and to study its use, effectiveness, and future applications. We assessed the usefulness of 3D printing technology by categorizing its utilization after reviewing the outcomes of these case studies. In future work, we aim to gather additional case studies and derive information on using 3D printing technology that will enable its effective application in the process of assistive technology services.

Time Perspectives and Gambling in Adolescent Boys: Differential Effects of Present- and Future-Orientation.

PubMed

Donati, Maria Anna; Sottili, Elena; Morsanyi, Kinga; Primi, Caterina

2018-06-04

Adolescent boys are characterised by increased risk-taking behavior, including a relatively high propensity to develop problem gambling habits. The association between gambling and sensitivity to immediately available rewards is well-established, suggesting that gamblers are less influenced by potential future consequences than non-gamblers. Nevertheless, existing studies have considered present- and future-orientation as two ends of the same continuum, and have not investigated the possibility that present and future perspectives might make independent contributions to gambling behavior. In the current study, we adopted Zimbardo's multidimensional approach, which discriminates between not only present and future perspectives, but also between a hedonistic and fatalistic present-orientation (in addition to positive and negative orientations towards the past). The participants were 223 male adolescents (mean age = 16.7 years). We investigated the effects of time perspectives on gambling frequency and gambling problem severity, after taking into account the effects of age, sensation seeking, and gambling-related cognitive distortions. Gambling frequency was significantly predicted by the present fatalistic perspective, and problem gambling was significantly (negatively) related to the future perspective. The present hedonistic and past negative perspectives were also significantly related to both gambling frequency and gambling problems, although they did not explain additional variance in gambling behavior when the effects of the other factors were controlled. Overall, these results offer a fresh perspective on the role of time perspectives in gambling behavior, with potential implications for understanding the origins of gambling problems and the development of novel interventions.

A Collection of Papers on Self-Study and Institutional Improvement, 2003. Volume 2: Organizational Effectiveness and Future Directions. 2003 Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Kollenburg, Susan E., Ed.

Papers in this collection were prepared for the annual meeting of the North Central Association of Colleges and Schools. This volume contains papers related to organizational effectiveness and future directions. Chapter 1, "Mission, Planning, and Organizational Change," contains: (1) "Revitalizing Mission: A Collaborative Model" (Stephany…

Enhancing Student Motivation: A Longitudinal Intervention Study Based on Future Time Perspective Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuitema, Jaap; Peetsma, Thea; van der Veen, Ineke

2014-01-01

The authors investigated the effects of an intervention developed to enhance student motivation in the first years of secondary education. The intervention, based on future time perspective (FTP) theory, has been found to be effective in prevocational secondary education (T. T. D. Peetsma & I. Van der Veen, 2008, 2009). The authors extend the…

Do Savings Mediate Changes in Adolescents' Future Orientation and Health-Related Outcomes? Findings From Randomized Experiment in Uganda.

PubMed

Karimli, Leyla; Ssewamala, Fred M

2015-10-01

This present study tests the proposition that an economic strengthening intervention for families caring for AIDS-orphaned adolescents would positively affect adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes through increased asset accumulation (in this case, by increasing family savings). Using longitudinal data from the cluster-randomized experiment, we ran generalized estimating equation models with robust standard errors clustering on individual observations. To examine whether family savings mediate the effect of the intervention on adolescents' future orientation and psychosocial outcomes, analyses were conducted in three steps: (1) testing the effect of intervention on mediator; (2) testing the effect of mediator on outcomes, controlling for the intervention; and (3) testing the significance of mediating effect using Sobel-Goodman method. Asymmetric confidence intervals for mediated effect were obtained through bootstrapping-to address the assumption of normal distribution. Results indicate that participation in a matched Child Savings Account (CSA) program improved adolescents' future orientation and psychosocial outcomes by reducing hopelessness, enhancing self-concept, and improving adolescents' confidence about their educational plans. However, the positive intervention effect on adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes was not transmitted through saving. In other words, participation in the matched CSA program improved adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes regardless of its impact on reported savings. Further research is necessary to understand exactly how participation in economic strengthening interventions, for example, those that employ matched CSAs, shape adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes: what, if not savings, transmits the treatment effect and how? Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do savings mediate changes in adolescents’ future orientation and health-related outcomes? Findings from randomized experiment in Uganda

PubMed Central

Karimli, Leyla; Ssewamala, Fred M.

2015-01-01

Purpose This present study tests the proposition that an economic strengthening intervention for families caring for AIDS-orphaned adolescents would positively affect adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes through increased asset-accumulation (in this case, by increasing family savings). Methods Using longitudinal data from the cluster-randomized experiment we ran generalized estimating equation (GEE) models with robust standard errors clustering on individual observations. To examine whether family savings mediate the effect of the intervention on adolescents’ future orientation and psychosocial outcomes, analyses were conducted in three steps: (1) testing the effect of intervention on mediator; (2) testing the effect of mediator on outcomes, controlling for the intervention; and (3) testing the significance of mediating effect using Sobel-Goodman method. Asymmetric confidence intervals for mediated effect were obtained through bootstrapping—to address the assumption of normal distribution. Results Results indicate that participation in a matched Child Savings Account program improved adolescents’ future orientation and psychosocial outcomes by reducing hopelessness, enhancing self-concept, and improving adolescents’ confidence about their educational plans. However, the positive intervention effect on adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes was not transmitted through saving. In other words, participation in the matched Child Savings Account program improved adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes regardless of its impact on reported savings. Conclusions Further research is necessary to understand exactly how participation in economic strengthening interventions, for example, those that employ matched Child Savings Accounts, shape adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes: what, if not savings, transmits the treatment effect and how? PMID:26271162

Lower extremity injuries in runners. Advances in prediction.

PubMed

Macera, C A

1992-01-01

Recreational and competitive running is practised by many individuals to improve cardiorespiratory function and general well-being. The major negative aspect of running is the high rate of injuries to the lower extremities. Several well-designed population-based studies have found no major differences in injury rates between men and women; no increasing effect of age on injuries; a declining injury rate with more years of running experience; no substantial effect of weight or height; an uncertain effect of psychological factors; and a strong effect of previous injury on future injuries. Among the modifiable risk factors studied, weekly distance is the strongest predictor of future injuries. Other training characteristics (speed, frequency, surface, timing) have little or no effect on future injuries after accounting for distance run. More studies are needed to address the effects of appropriate stretching practices and abrupt change in training patterns. For recreational runners who have sustained injuries, especially within the past year, a reduction in running to below 32 km per week is recommended. For those about to begin a running programme, moderation is the best advice. For competitive runners, great care should be taken to ensure that prior injuries are sufficiently healed before attempting any racing event, particularly a marathon.

[Peloid therapy. An overview of the empirical status and evidence of mud therapy].

PubMed

Beer, A-M; Fetaj, S; Lange, U

2013-08-01

Numerous peloids for balneotherapy are currently available but in terms of effects and efficacy therapeutic peat has been studied best. Recent studies revealed that both thermal and physical effects of therapeutic peat are comparable and synergistic. The thermal effects of all types of peat used are approximately the same but chemical effects differ. These results have to been taken into account in future peloid analyses and indications and contraindications of mud therapy have to be reviewed in this respect. Some hypothetical aspects of these chemical effects have to be investigated in future clinical studies but clinical experience with mud therapy allows preliminary conclusions to be drawn. This statement is especially supported by recent molecular investigations. Knowledge about the chemical effects is also necessary for planning, defining and designing clinical studies and patients groups. Exemplarily, the therapeutic use of peat in rheumatic diseases and for fertility treatment will be demonstrated.

Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Sarah A.; Heinze, Justin E.; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A.

2015-01-01

Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents’ violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:26282242

PLANT DIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat change statistics and species-area curves were used to estimate the effects of alternative future scenarios for agriculture on plant diversity in Iowa farmlands. Study areas were two watersheds in central Iowa of about 50 and 90 square kilometers, respectively. Future s...

WILDLIFE HABITAT

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat change statistics were used to estimate the effects of alternative future scenarios for agriculture on non-fish vertebrate diversity in Iowa farmlands. Study areas were two watersheds in central Iowa of about 50 and 90 square kilometers, respectively. Future scenarios w...

Effect of broadened-specification fuels on aircraft engines and fuel systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudey, R. A.

1979-01-01

A wide variety of studies on the potential effects of broadened-specification fuels on future aircraft engines and fuel systems are summarized. The compositions and characteristics of aircraft fuels that may be derived from current and future crude-oil sources are described, and the most critical properties that may effect aircraft engines and fuel systems are identified and discussed. The problems that are most likely to be encountered because of changes in selected fuel properties are explored; and the related effects on engine performance, component durability and maintenance, and aircraft fuel-system performance are examined. The ability of current technology to accept possible future fuel specification changes is assessed and selected technological advances that can reduce the severity of the potential problems are illustrated.

Gender differences in social network characteristics and psychological well-being among Hong Kong Chinese: the role of future time perspective and adherence to Renqing.

PubMed

Yeung, D Y; Fung, H H; Lang, F R

2007-01-01

Gender differences in social network characteristics are well documented in the literature. Socio-emotional selectivity theory emphasizes the importance of future time perception on selection of social partners whereas cultural studies stress the roles of Renqing (relationship orientation) on social interactions. This study examined the effects of future time perspective and adherence to Renqing on social network characteristics, and their associations with psychological well-being of 321 Chinese men and women, aged 28-91 years. Results showed that adherence to Renqing partially accounted for gender differences in the number of relatives, even after controlling for the effects of extraversion and structural factors. Moreover, women, but not men, with lower adherence to Renqing and more limited future time perspective were found to be happier when they had fewer close friends in their social networks.

Effectiveness guidance document (EGD) for Chinese medicine trials: a consensus document

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There is a need for more Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) on Chinese medicine (CM) to inform clinical and policy decision-making. This document aims to provide consensus advice for the design of CER trials on CM for researchers. It broadly aims to ensure more adequate design and optimal use of resources in generating evidence for CM to inform stakeholder decision-making. Methods The Effectiveness Guidance Document (EGD) development was based on multiple consensus procedures (survey, written Delphi rounds, interactive consensus workshop, international expert review). To balance aspects of internal and external validity, multiple stakeholders, including patients, clinicians, researchers and payers were involved in creating this document. Results Recommendations were developed for “using available data” and “future clinical studies”. The recommendations for future trials focus on randomized trials and cover the following areas: designing CER studies, treatments, expertise and setting, outcomes, study design and statistical analyses, economic evaluation, and publication. Conclusion The present EGD provides the first systematic methodological guidance for future CER trials on CM and can be applied to single or multi-component treatments. While CONSORT statements provide guidelines for reporting studies, EGDs provide recommendations for the design of future studies and can contribute to a more strategic use of limited research resources, as well as greater consistency in trial design. PMID:24885146

Current and Future Constraints on Higgs Couplings in the Nonlinear Effective Theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Blas, Jorge; Eberhardt, Otto; Krause, Claudius

We perform a Bayesian statistical analysis of the constraints on the nonlinear Effective Theory given by the Higgs electroweak chiral Lagrangian. We obtain bounds on the effective coefficients entering in Higgs observables at the leading order, using all available Higgs-boson signal strengths from the LHC runs 1 and 2. Using a prior dependence study of the solutions, we discuss the results within the context of natural-sized Wilson coefficients. We further study the expected sensitivities to the different Wilson coefficients at various possible future colliders. Finally, we interpret our results in terms of some minimal composite Higgs models.

Does experience of the 'occult' predict use of complementary medicine? Experience of, and beliefs about, both complementary medicine and ways of telling the future.

PubMed

Furnham, A

2000-12-01

This study looked at the relationship between ratings of the perceived effectiveness of 24 methods for telling the future, 39 complementary therapies (CM) and 12 specific attitude statements about science and medicine. A total of 159 participants took part. The results showed that the participants were deeply sceptical of the effectiveness of the methods for telling the future which factored into meaningful and interpretable factors. Participants were much more positive about particular, but not all, specialties of complementary medicine (CM). These also factored into a meaningful factor structure. Finally, the 12 attitude to science/medicine statements revealed four factors: scepticism of medicine; the importance of psychological factors; patient protection; and the importance of scientific evaluation. Regressional analysis showed that belief in the total effectiveness of different ways of predicting the future was best predicted by beliefs in the effectiveness of the CM therapies. Although interest in the occult was associated with interest in CM, participants were able to distinguish between the two, and displayed scepticism about the effectiveness of methods of predicting the future and some CM therapies. Copyright 2000 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

The Long-Term Effects of Bilingualism on Children of Immigration: Student Bilingualism and Future Earnings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agirdag, Orhan

2014-01-01

In this study, we examine the largely neglected long-term effects of bilingualism for students with roots in immigration. Our central research question is whether students' bilingual proficiencies have an impact on their future earnings in the USA. For this purpose, we used two different data-sets, i.e. the National Education Longitudinal…

The development of future thinking: young children's ability to construct event sequences to achieve future goals.

PubMed

Prabhakar, Janani; Hudson, Judith A

2014-11-01

Previous studies suggest that the ability to think about and act on the future emerges between 3 and 5 years of age. However, it is unclear what underlying processes change during the development of early future-oriented behavior. We report three experiments that tested the emergence of future thinking ability through children's ability to explicitly maintain future goals and construct future scenarios. Our main objectives were to examine the effects of goal structure and the effects of working memory demands on children's ability to construct future scenarios and make choices to satisfy future goals. The results indicate that 4-year-olds were able to successfully accomplish two temporally ordered goals even with high working memory demands and a complex goal structure, whereas 3-year-olds were able to accomplish two goals only when the working memory demands were low and the goal structure did not involve additional demands from inferential reasoning and contingencies between the temporally ordered goals. Results are discussed in terms of the development of future thinking in conjunction with working memory, inferential reasoning ability, and goal maintenance abilities. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The relationship between future time perspective, self-efficacy and risky sexual behaviour in the Black youth of central South Africa.

PubMed

Abousselam, Nikki; Naudé, Luzelle; Lens, Willy; Esterhuyse, Karel

2016-01-01

An interest exists in understanding why adolescents partake in risky sexual behaviours, as well as the risk and protective practices associated with risky sexual behaviour. The aim of this study was to investigate the moderator effect of future time perspective in the relationship between self-efficacy and risky sexual behaviour. A random cluster consisting of 467 learners from English medium high schools of central South Africa participated in this study. The participants' risky sexual behaviour, self-efficacy and future time perspective were measured with the Perceptions of HIV/AIDS Risk Survey, Generalised Perceived Self-efficacy Scale and the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory, respectively. Product term regression analysis was performed. It was found that both self-efficacy and future time perspective were negatively related to risky sexual behaviour. No moderating effect was found for future time perspective in the relationship between self-efficacy and risky sexual behaviour. Self-efficacy and future time perspective were identified as qualities that protect adolescents from engaging in risky sexual behaviours. This finding can be useful in developing prevention programmes. Intervention programmes aimed at the youth should foster a sense of hope and possibility about the future and the development of goals and aspirations to prevent risky behaviour.

Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

PubMed

Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

2011-10-01

Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (P<0.05) and that reminding people of these experiences results in higher predicted future liking for vegetables (P<0.05) and choice of a larger portion size of vegetables (P<0.05) compared with recall of a personal nonfood memory, a nonvegetable food memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring Partial School Autonomy: What Does It Mean for the Cypriot School of the Future?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Theodorou, Theodoros; Pashiardis, Petros

2016-01-01

This paper examines the school of the future, aiming to identify and aid the implementation of the most desired version of school autonomy in Cyprus. More specifically, the study initially forecasts the areas of financial decisions that the school of the future might autonomously manage, identifies the negative effects that may appear along the…

Planning in the 90's for Community Colleges: Coping with Rapid Change by Linking Futures Research with Professional Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Diana K.

The rate of the change now occurring outside of community colleges has made long-range planning an especially difficult task. Futures research, which attempts to forecast future scenarios by studying societal, economic, and demographic trends, can be used effectively to facilitate the institutional planning process by anticipating both internal…

Toward a theory of persuasive hope: effects of cognitive appraisals, hope appeals, and hope in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Chadwick, Amy E

2015-01-01

Hope has the potential to be a powerful motivator for influencing behavior. However, hope and messages that evoke hope (hope appeals) have rarely been the focus of theoretical development or empirical research. As a step toward the effective development and use of hope appeals in persuasive communication, this study conceptualized and operationalized hope appeals in the context of climate change prevention. Then, the study manipulated components of the hope evocation part of a hope appeal. Specifically, the components were designed to address appraisals of the importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility of climate protection, resulting in a 2 (strong/weak importance) × 2 (strong/weak goal congruence) × 2 (strong/weak future expectation) × 2 (strong/weak possibility) between-subjects pretest-posttest factorial design. Two hundred forty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to one of the 16 message conditions and completed the study online. The study tested whether the four appraisals predict feelings of hope. It determined whether message components that address importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility affect appraisals, feelings of hope, and persuasion outcomes. Finally, this study tested the effects of feelings of hope on persuasion outcomes. This study takes an important step toward enabling the effective use of hope appeals in persuasive communication.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherson, Michelle Yvonne; García-García, Almudena; José Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Beltrami, Hugo; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Hume Ogden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical and forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis. As in previous studies, R0 of I. scapularis increased with a warming climate under future projected climate. Increases in the multi-model mean R0 values showed significant changes over time under all RCP scenarios, however; only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences. Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. On-going planning is needed to inform and guide adaptation in light of the projected range of possible futures.

Evaluating hospital design from an operations management perspective.

PubMed

Vos, Leti; Groothuis, Siebren; van Merode, Godefridus G

2007-12-01

This paper describes an evaluation method for the assessment of hospital building design from the viewpoint of operations management to assure that the building design supports the efficient and effective operating of care processes now and in the future. The different steps of the method are illustrated by a case study. In the case study an experimental design is applied to assess the effect of used logistical concepts, patient mix and technologies. The study shows that the evaluation method provides a valuable tool for the assessment of both functionality and the ability to meet future developments in operational control of a building design.

A Delphi Investigation into Future Trends in E-Learning in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aharony, Noa; Bronstein, Jenny

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the views and opinions of e-learning experts regarding future trends in the e-learning arena. The Delphi technique was chosen as a method of study. This technique is an efficient and effective group communication process designed to systematically elicit judgments from experts in their selected area of…

The Perceived Impact of E-Books on Student Reading Practices: A Local Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilbert, Julie; Fister, Barbara

2015-01-01

This study investigates the perceived impact of future e-book collections on student research and recreational reading habits at our institution through three questions: how students currently use library print collections, how students use e-books, and how these factors impact student perception of the effects of future library e-books on their…

The Integrated Mission Design Center (IMDC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karpati, Gabriel; Martin, John; Steiner, Mark; Reinhardt, K.

2002-01-01

NASA Goddard has used its Integrated Mission Design Center (IMDC) to perform more than 150 mission concept studies. The IMDC performs rapid development of high-level, end-to-end mission concepts, typically in just 4 days. The approach to the studies varies, depending on whether the proposed mission is near-future using existing technology, mid-future using new technology being actively developed, or far-future using technology which may not yet be clearly defined. The emphasis and level of detail developed during any particular study depends on which timeframe (near-, mid-, or far-future) is involved and the specific needs of the study client. The most effective mission studies are those where mission capabilities required and emerging technology developments can synergistically work together; thus both enhancing mission capabilities and providing impetus for ongoing technology development.

The end is (not) near: Aging, essentialism, and future time perspective.

PubMed

Weiss, David; Job, Veronika; Mathias, Maya; Grah, Stephanie; Freund, Alexandra M

2016-06-01

Beliefs about aging influence how we interpret and respond to changes within and around us. Essentialist beliefs about aging are defined as views that link chronological age with inherent and immutable properties underlying aging-related changes. These beliefs may influence the experience of aging-related changes and shape people's outlook of the future. We hypothesized that people who endorse essentialist beliefs about aging report a more limited future time perspective. Two studies provided correlational (Study 1, N = 250; 18-77 years) and experimental (Study 2, N = 103; 20-77 years) evidence that essentialist beliefs about aging affect people's future time perspective. In addition, Study 2 and Study 3 (N = 174; 34-67 years) tested the underlying mechanism and provided evidence that perception of aging-related threat explains the effect of essentialist beliefs on a reduced future time perspective. These findings highlight the fundamental role of essentialist beliefs about aging for the perception of time horizons in the context of aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The Consideration of Future Consequences and Health Behaviour: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Murphy, Lisa; Dockray, Samantha

2018-06-14

The aim of this meta-analysis was to quantify the direction and strength of associations between the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale and intended and actual engagement in three categories of health-related behaviour: health risk, health promotive, and illness preventative/detective behaviour. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies that measured CFC and health behaviour. In total, sixty-four effect sizes were extracted from 53 independent samples. Effect sizes were synthesised using a random-effects model. Aggregate effect sizes for all behaviour categories were significant, albeit small in magnitude. There were no significant moderating effects of the length of CFC scale (long vs. short), population type (college students vs. non-college students), mean age, or sex proportion of study samples. CFC reliability and study quality score significantly moderated the overall association between CFC and health risk behaviour only. The magnitude of effect sizes is comparable to associations between health behaviour and other individual difference variables, such as the Big Five personality traits. The findings indicate that CFC is an important construct to consider in research on engagement in health risk behaviour in particular. Future research is needed to examine the optimal approach by which to apply the findings to behavioural interventions.

Forecasting the Future Food Service World of Work. Final Report. Volume II. Centralized Food Service Systems. Service Management Reports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powers, Thomas F., Ed.; Swinton, John R., Ed.

Volume II of a three-volume study on the future of the food service industry considers the effects that centralized food production will have on the future of food production systems. Based on information from the Fair Acres Project and the Michigan State University Vegetable Processing Center, the authors describe the operations of a centralized…

What Shapes Adolescents' Future Perceptions? The Effects of Hearing Loss, Social Affiliation, and Career Self-Efficacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michael, Rinat; Cinamon, Rachel Gali; Most, Tova

2015-01-01

The current study examined the contribution of hearing loss, social affiliation, and career self-efficacy to adolescents' future perceptions. Participants were 191 11th and 12th grade students: 60 who were deaf, 36 who were deaf or hard of hearing, and 95 who were hearing. They completed the Future Perceptions Scale, the Career Decision-Making…

The Medial Temporal Lobes are Critical for Reward-Based Decision Making under Conditions that Promote Episodic Future Thinking

PubMed Central

Palombo, Daniela J.; Keane, Margaret M.; Verfaellie, Mieke

2014-01-01

In the present study, we investigated the effect of medial temporal lobe (MTL) damage on human decision making in the context of reward-based intertemporal choice. During intertemporal choice, humans typically devalue (or discount) a future reward to account for its delayed arrival (e.g., preferring $30 now over $42 in 2 months), but this effect is attenuated when participants engage in episodic future thinking, i.e., project themselves into the future to imagine a specific event. We hypothesized that this attenuation would be selectively impaired in amnesic patients, who have deficits in episodic future thinking. Replicating previous work, in a standard intertemporal choice task, amnesic patients showed temporal discounting indices similar to healthy controls. Consistent with our hypothesis, while healthy controls demonstrated attenuated temporal discounting in a condition that required participants first to engage in episodic future thinking (e.g., to imagine spending $42 at a theatre in 2 months), amnesic patients failed to demonstrate this effect. Moreover, as expected, amnesic patients’ narratives were less episodically rich than those of controls. These findings extend the range of tasks that are shown to be MTL dependent to include not only memory-based decision-making tasks but also future-oriented ones. PMID:25284804

Past-focused temporal communication overcomes conservatives' resistance to liberal political ideas.

PubMed

Lammers, Joris; Baldwin, Matt

2018-04-01

Nine studies and a meta-analysis test the role of past-focused temporal communication in reducing conservatives' disagreement with liberal political ideas. We propose that conservatives are more prone to warm, affectionate, and nostalgic feelings for past society. Therefore, they are more likely to support political ideas-including those expressing liberal values-that can be linked to a desirable past state (past focus), rather than a desirable future state (future focus) of society. Study 1 supports our prediction that political conservatives are more nostalgic for the past than liberals. Building on this association, we demonstrate that communicating liberal ideas with a past focus increases conservatives' support for leniency in criminal justice (Studies 2a and 2b), gun control (Study 3), immigration (Study 4), social diversity (Study 5), and social justice (Study 6). Communicating messages with a past focus reduced political disagreement (compared with a future focus) between liberals and conservatives by between 30 and 100% across studies. Studies 5 and 6 identify the mediating role of state and trait nostalgia, respectively. Study 7 shows that the temporal communication effect only occurs under peripheral (and not central) information processing. Study 8 shows that the effect is asymmetric; a future focus did not increase liberals' support for conservative ideas. A mixed-effects meta-analysis across all studies confirms that appealing to conservatives' nostalgia with a past-focused temporal focus increases support for liberal political messages (Study 9). A large portion of the political disagreement between conservatives and liberals appears to be disagreement over style, and not content of political issues. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Framing and visual type: Effect on future Zika vaccine uptake intent.

PubMed

Guidry, Jeanine P D; Carlyle, Kellie E; LaRose, Jessica G; Perrin, Paul; Ryan, Mark; Messner, Marcus; Adams, Jay

2018-02-05

The Zika virus is associated with the birth defect microcephaly, and while a vaccine was not available in early- 2017, several were under development. This study's purpose was to identify effective communication strategies to promote uptake of a new vaccine, particularly among women of reproductive age. In order to study the effects of Zika message framing (gain vs . loss) and visual type (photo vs . infographic) on future Zika vaccine uptake intent, a 2×2 between-subjects experiment was performed via an online survey in 2017 among 339 U.S. women of reproductive age (18-49 years). Participants were exposed to one of four messages, all resembling Instagram posts: gain-framed vs. loss-framed infographic, and gain-framed vs . loss-framed photo. These messages were followed by questions about Zika vaccine uptake intent as well as intermediate psychosocial variables that could lead to intent. There was no interaction between framing and visual type (P=0.116), and there was no effect for framing (P=0.185) or visual type (P=0.724) on future Zika vaccine uptake intent, which is likely indicative of insufficient dosage of the intervention. However, when focusing on intermediate psychosocial constructs that are known to influence behavior and intent, gain-framed messages were more effective in increasing subjective norms (P=0.005) as related to a future Zika vaccine, as well as perceived benefits (P=0.016) and self-efficacy (P=0.032). Gain-framed messages seem to be more effective than loss-framed messages to increase several constructs that could, in turn, affect future Zika vaccine uptake intent. This is a novel finding since, traditionally, loss-framed messages are considered more beneficial in promoting vaccine-related health behaviors.

Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho

2016-09-01

Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Familiar real-world spatial cues provide memory benefits in older and younger adults.

PubMed

Robin, Jessica; Moscovitch, Morris

2017-05-01

Episodic memory, future thinking, and memory for scenes have all been proposed to rely on the hippocampus, and evidence suggests that these all decline in healthy aging. Despite this age-related memory decline, studies examining the effects of context reinstatement on episodic memory have demonstrated that reinstating elements of the encoding context of an event leads to better memory retrieval in both younger and older adults. The current study was designed to test whether more familiar, real-world contexts, such as locations that participants visited often, would improve the detail richness and vividness of memory for scenes, autobiographical events, and imagination of future events in young and older adults. The predicted age-related decline in internal details across all 3 conditions was accompanied by persistent effects of contextual familiarity, in which a more familiar spatial context led to increased detail and vividness of remembered scenes, autobiographical events, and, to some extent, imagined future events. This study demonstrates that autobiographical memory, imagination of the future, and scene memory are similarly affected by aging, and all benefit from being associated with more familiar (real-world) contexts, illustrating the stability of contextual reinstatement effects on memory throughout the life span. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies

PubMed Central

Hurlstone, Mark J.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R.; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a “foregone-gain”—incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts—rather than as a “loss”—incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts. PMID:25501009

The effect of framing and normative messages in building support for climate policies.

PubMed

Hurlstone, Mark J; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a "foregone-gain"--incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts--rather than as a "loss"--incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts.

Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

2015-10-01

Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of violence exposure on the development of impulse control and future orientation across adolescence and early adulthood: Time-specific and generalized effects in a sample of juvenile offenders.

PubMed

Monahan, Kathryn C; King, Kevin M; Shulman, Elizabeth P; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Chassin, Laurie

2015-11-01

Impulse control and future orientation increase across adolescence, but little is known about how contextual factors shape the development of these capacities. The present study investigates how stress exposure, operationalized as exposure to violence, alters the developmental pattern of impulse control and future orientation across adolescence and early adulthood. In a sample of 1,354 serious juvenile offenders, higher exposure to violence was associated with lower levels of future orientation at age 15 and suppressed development of future orientation from ages 15 to 25. Increases in witnessing violence or victimization were linked to declines in impulse control 1 year later, but only during adolescence. Thus, beyond previous experiences of exposure to violence, witnessing violence and victimization during adolescence conveys unique risk for suppressed development of self-regulation.

Moderating effect of age on the association between future time perspective and preventive coping.

PubMed

Chen, Tao; Liu, Lu-Lu; Cui, Ji-Fang; Chen, Xing-Jie; Shi, Hai-Song; Neumann, David L; Shum, David H K; Wang, Ya; Chan, Raymond C K

2017-09-01

The present study aimed to investigate the moderating effect of age on the relationship between future time perspective (FTP) and future-oriented coping. A total of 1,915 participants aged 9-84 years completed measures of FTP and future-oriented coping. Moderation analyses were conducted to examine whether age played a role in the association between FTP and future-oriented coping (proactive and preventive). Results showed that proactive and preventive coping were negatively correlated with age, and age moderated the association between FTP and preventive coping but not proactive coping. Furthermore, the strength of the positive association between FTP and preventive coping was strongest among the older participants, moderate among the middle-aged participants, and weakest among the younger participants. These results suggest that the association between FTP and preventive coping varies across the lifespan. © 2017 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Short-Term Effect of Two Semi-Occluded Vocal Tract Training Programs on the Vocal Quality of Future Occupational Voice Users: "Resonant Voice Training Using Nasal Consonants" versus "Straw Phonation"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meerschman, Iris; Van Lierde, Kristiane; Peeters, Karen; Meersman, Eline; Claeys, Sofie; D'haeseleer, Evelien

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the short-term effect of 2 semi-occluded vocal tract training programs, "resonant voice training using nasal consonants" versus "straw phonation," on the vocal quality of vocally healthy future occupational voice users. Method: A multigroup pretest--posttest randomized control…

Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

2014-01-01

This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

Future Directions: Advances and Implications of Virtual Environments Designed for Pain Management

PubMed Central

Soomro, Ahmad; Riva, Giuseppe; Wiederhold, Mark D.

2014-01-01

Abstract Pain symptoms have been addressed with a variety of therapeutic measures in the past, but as we look to the future, we begin encountering new options for patient care and individual health and well-being. Recent studies indicate that computer-generated graphic environments—virtual reality (VR)—can offer effective cognitive distractions for individuals suffering from pain arising from a variety of physical and psychological illnesses. Studies also indicate the effectiveness of VR for both chronic and acute pain conditions. Future possibilities for VR to address pain-related concerns include such diverse groups as military personnel, space exploration teams, the general labor force, and our ever increasing elderly population. VR also shows promise to help in such areas as drug abuse, at-home treatments, and athletic injuries. PMID:24892206

Future directions: advances and implications of virtual environments designed for pain management.

PubMed

Wiederhold, Brenda K; Soomro, Ahmad; Riva, Giuseppe; Wiederhold, Mark D

2014-06-01

Pain symptoms have been addressed with a variety of therapeutic measures in the past, but as we look to the future, we begin encountering new options for patient care and individual health and well-being. Recent studies indicate that computer-generated graphic environments--virtual reality (VR)--can offer effective cognitive distractions for individuals suffering from pain arising from a variety of physical and psychological illnesses. Studies also indicate the effectiveness of VR for both chronic and acute pain conditions. Future possibilities for VR to address pain-related concerns include such diverse groups as military personnel, space exploration teams, the general labor force, and our ever increasing elderly population. VR also shows promise to help in such areas as drug abuse, at-home treatments, and athletic injuries.

Improving brain-machine interface performance by decoding intended future movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willett, Francis R.; Suminski, Aaron J.; Fagg, Andrew H.; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G.

2013-04-01

Objective. A brain-machine interface (BMI) records neural signals in real time from a subject's brain, interprets them as motor commands, and reroutes them to a device such as a robotic arm, so as to restore lost motor function. Our objective here is to improve BMI performance by minimizing the deleterious effects of delay in the BMI control loop. We mitigate the effects of delay by decoding the subject's intended movements a short time lead in the future. Approach. We use the decoded, intended future movements of the subject as the control signal that drives the movement of our BMI. This should allow the user's intended trajectory to be implemented more quickly by the BMI, reducing the amount of delay in the system. In our experiment, a monkey (Macaca mulatta) uses a future prediction BMI to control a simulated arm to hit targets on a screen. Main Results. Results from experiments with BMIs possessing different system delays (100, 200 and 300 ms) show that the monkey can make significantly straighter, faster and smoother movements when the decoder predicts the user's future intent. We also characterize how BMI performance changes as a function of delay, and explore offline how the accuracy of future prediction decoders varies at different time leads. Significance. This study is the first to characterize the effects of control delays in a BMI and to show that decoding the user's future intent can compensate for the negative effect of control delay on BMI performance.

Competing effects of groundwater withdrawals and climate change on water availability in semi-arid India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sishodia, R. P.; Shukla, S.

2017-12-01

India, a global leader in groundwater use (250 km3/yr), is experiencing groundwater depletion. There has been a 130-fold increase in number of irrigation wells since 1960. Anticipated future increase in groundwater demand is likely to exacerbate the water availability in the semi-arid regions of India. Depending on the direction of change, future climate change may either worsen or enhance the water availability. This study uses an integrated hydrologic modeling approach (MIKE SHE MIKE 11) to compare and combine the effects of future (2040-2069) increased groundwater withdrawals and climate change on surface and groundwater flows and availability for an agricultural watershed in semi-arid south India. Modeling results showed that increased groundwater withdrawals in the future resulted in reduced surface flows (25%) and increased frequency and duration (90 days/yr) of well drying. In contrast, projected future increase in rainfall (7-43%) under the changed climate showed increased groundwater recharge (15-67%) and surface flows (9-155%). Modeling results suggest that the positive effects of climate change may enhance the water availability in this semi-arid region of India. However, in combination with increased withdrawals, climate change was shown to increase the well drying and reduce the water availability especially during dry years. A combination of management options such as flood to drip conversion, energy subsidy reductions and water storage can support increased groundwater irrigated area in the future while mitigating the well drying. A cost-benefit analysis showed that dispersed water storage and flood to drip conversion can be highly cost-effective in this semi-arid region. The study results suggest that the government and management policies need to be focused towards an integrated management of demand and supply to create a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in the region.

Effect of broadened-specification fuels on aircraft engines and fuel systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudey, R. A.

1979-01-01

A wide variety of studies on the potential effects of broadened-specification fuels on future aircraft engines and fuel systems are summarized. The compositions and characteristics of aircraft fuels that may be derived from current and future crude-oil sources are described, and the most critical properties that may affect aircraft engines and fuel systems are identified and discussed. The problems that are most likely to be encountered because of changes in selected fuel properties are described; and the related effects on engine performance, component durability and maintenance, and aircraft fuel-system performance are discussed. The ability of current technology to accept possible future fuel-specification changes is discussed, and selected technological advances that can reduce the severity of the potential problems are illustrated.

Projected climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, S.L.; Atkins, J.; Bancroft, B.A.; Bartlein, P.J.; Lawler, J.J.; Smith, B.; Wilsey, C.B.

2012-01-01

The responses of species and ecosystems to future climate changes will present challenges for conservation and natural resource managers attempting to maintain both species populations and essential habitat. This report describes projected future changes in climate and vegetation for three study areas surrounding the military installations of Fort Benning, Georgia, Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Irwin, California. Projected climate changes are described for the time period 2070–2099 (30-year mean) as compared to 1961–1990 (30-year mean) for each study area using data simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3, run under the B1, A1B, and A2 future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These climate data are used to simulate potential changes in important components of the vegetation for each study area using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, and LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model optimized for regional studies. The simulated vegetation results are compared with observed vegetation data for the study areas. Potential effects of the simulated future climate and vegetation changes for species and habitats of management concern are discussed in each study area, with a particular focus on federally listed threatened and endangered species.

Culture, temporal focus, and values of the past and the future.

PubMed

Guo, Tieyuan; Ji, Li-Jun; Spina, Roy; Zhang, Zhiyong

2012-08-01

This article examines cultural differences in how people value future and past events. Throughout four studies, the authors found that European Canadians attached more monetary value to an event in the future than to an identical event in the past, whereas Chinese and Chinese Canadians placed more monetary value to a past event than to an identical future event. The authors also showed that temporal focus-thinking about the past or future-explained cultural influences on the temporal value asymmetry effect. Specifically, when induced to think about and focus on the future, Chinese valued the future more than the past, just like Euro-Canadians; when induced to think about and focus on the past, Euro-Canadians valued the past more than the future, just like Chinese.

Looking forward: the effects of photographs on the qualities of future thinking.

PubMed

Bays, Rebecca B; Wellen, Brianna C M; Greenberg, Katherine S

2018-04-01

Future episodic thinking relies on the reconstruction of remembered experiences. Photographs provide one means of remembering, acting as a "cognitive springboard" for generating related memory qualities. We wondered whether photographs would also invite embellishment of future thought qualities, particularly in the presence (or absence) of associated memories. In two studies participants generated future events in familiar (associated memories) and novel (no associated memories) locations. Half of the participants viewed scene location photographs during event generation. All participants then imagined the events for one minute and completed a self-report measure of content qualities. Results of the current set of studies suggested that for novel locations, no differences in qualities emerged; however, for familiar locations, photographs did not enhance qualities and, in some cases, actually constrained perceptual (Experiments 1 and 2) and sensory (Experiment 1) detail ratings of future thoughts. Thus, photographs did not invite embellishment of future thought details.

The Effect of Teacher Education Programs on Future Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Knowledge: A Five-Country Analysis Using TEDS-M Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qian, Hong; Youngs, Peter

2016-01-01

This article addresses the problem of how opportunities to learn in teacher education programs influence future elementary mathematics teachers' knowledge. This study used data collected for the Teacher Education and Development Study in Mathematics (TEDS-M). TEDS-M measured the mathematics content knowledge (MCK) and the mathematics pedagogical…

Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

PubMed

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

2016-08-01

Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation.

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sallee, G. P.

1974-01-01

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Synergistic Effects of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor on Bone Morphogenetic Proteins Induced Bone Formation In Vivo: Influencing Factors and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Li, Bo; Wang, Hai; Qiu, Guixing; Su, Xinlin

2016-01-01

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs), as key mediators in angiogenesis and osteogenesis, are used in a combined delivery manner as a novel strategy in bone tissue engineering. VEGF has the potential to enhance BMPs induced bone formation. Both gene delivery and material-based delivery systems were incorporated in previous studies to investigate the synergistic effects of VEGF and BMPs. However, their results were controversial due to variation of methods incorporated in different studies. Factors influencing the synergistic effects of VEGF on BMPs induced bone formation were identified and analyzed in this review to reduce confusion on this issue. The potential mechanisms and directions of future studies were also proposed here. Further investigating mechanisms of the synergistic effects and optimizing these influencing factors will help to generate more effective bone regeneration. PMID:28070506

How obstacles and facilitators predict academic performance: the mediating role of study burnout and engagement.

PubMed

Salanova, Marisa; Schaufeli, Wilmar; Martinez, Isabel; Breso, Edgar

2010-01-01

Most people would agree with the maxim that "success breeds success." However, this is not the whole story. The current study investigated the additional impact of psychosocial factors (i.e., performance obstacles and facilitators) as well as psychological well-being (i.e., burnout and engagement) on success (i.e., academic performance). More specifically, our purpose was to show that, instead of directly affecting future performance, obstacles and facilitators exert an indirect effect via well-being. A total of 527 university students comprised the sample and filled out a questionnaire. We obtained their previous and future academic performance Grade Point Average (GPA) from the university's records. Structural equations modeling showed that the best predictor of future performance was the students' previous performance. As expected, study engagement mediated the relationship between performance obstacles and facilitators on the one hand, and future performance on the other. Contrary to expectations, burnout did not predict future performance, although, it is significantly associated with the presence of obstacles and the absence of facilitators. Our results illustrate that, although "success breeds success" (i.e., the best predictor of future performance is past performance), positive psychological states like study engagement are also important in explaining future performance, at least more so than negative states like study burnout.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannayan, M.; Mansoori, H.; Rezaei, E. Eyshi

2014-04-01

Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm-1) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.

Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran.

PubMed

Bannayan, M; Mansoori, H; Rezaei, E Eyshi

2014-04-01

Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm(-1)) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.

Multistressor impacts of warming and acidification of the ocean on marine invertebrates' life histories.

PubMed

Byrne, Maria; Przeslawski, Rachel

2013-10-01

Benthic marine invertebrates live in a multistressor world where stressor levels are, and will continue to be, exacerbated by global warming and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. These changes are causing the oceans to warm, decrease in pH, become hypercapnic, and to become less saturated in carbonate minerals. These stressors have strong impacts on biological processes, but little is known about their combined effects on the development of marine invertebrates. Increasing temperature has a stimulatory effect on development, whereas hypercapnia can depress developmental processes. The pH, pCO2, and CaCO3 of seawater change simultaneously with temperature, challenging our ability to predict future outcomes for marine biota. The need to consider both warming and acidification is reflected in the recent increase in cross-factorial studies of the effects of these stressors on development of marine invertebrates. The outcomes and trends in these studies are synthesized here. Based on this compilation, significant additive or antagonistic effects of warming and acidification of the ocean are common (16 of 20 species studied), and synergistic negative effects also are reported. Fertilization can be robust to near-future warming and acidification, depending on the male-female mating pair. Although larvae and juveniles of some species tolerate near-future levels of warming and acidification (+2°C/pH 7.8), projected far-future conditions (ca. ≥4°C/ ≤pH 7.6) are widely deleterious, with a reduction in the size and survival of larvae. It appears that larvae that calcify are sensitive both to warming and acidification, whereas those that do not calcify are more sensitive to warming. Different sensitivities of life-history stages and species have implications for persistence and community function in a changing ocean. Some species are more resilient than others and may be potential "winners" in the climate-change stakes. As the ocean will change more gradually over coming decades than in "future shock" perturbation investigations, it is likely that some species, particularly those with short generation times, may be able to tolerate near-future oceanic change through acclimatization and/or adaption.

The Observed Longitudinal Relationship between Future Orientation and Substance Use Among a Cohort of Youth with Serious Criminal Offenses.

PubMed

Brooks, Merrian; Miller, Elizabeth; Abebe, Kaleab; Mulvey, Edward

2018-03-06

Future orientation (FO), an essential construct in youth development, encompassing goals, expectations for life, and ability to plan for the future. This study uses a multidimensional measure of future orientation to assess the relationship between change in future orientation and change in substance use over time. Data were from the Pathways to Desistence study. Justice involved youth (n = 1,354), ages 14 to 18 at time of recruitment, completed interviews every six months for three years. Multiple measures were chosen a priori as elements of future orientation. After evaluating the psychometrics of a new measure for future orientation, we ran mixed effects cross-lagged panel models to assess the relationship between changes in future orientation and substance use (tobacco, marijuana, hard drugs, and alcohol). There was a significant bidirectional relationship between future orientation and all substance use outcomes. Adjusted models accounted for different sites, sex, age, ethnicity, parental education, and proportion of time spent in a facility. In adjusted models, higher levels of future orientation resulted in smaller increases in substance use at future time points. Future orientation and substance use influence each other in this sample of adolescent offenders. Treating substance use disorders is also likely to increase future orientation, promoting positive youth development more generally. This study expands our understanding of the longitudinal relationship between changes in future orientation and changes in levels of substance use in a sample of justice involved youth with high levels of substance use, a group of considerable clinical and policy interest.

Understanding the metabolic and health effects of low-calorie sweeteners: methodological considerations and implications for future research

PubMed Central

Sylvetsky, Allison C.; Blau, Jenny E.; Rother, Kristina I.

2016-01-01

Consumption of foods, beverages, and packets containing low-calorie sweeteners (LCS) has increased markedly across gender, age, race/ethnicity, weight status, and socioeconomic subgroups. However, well-controlled intervention studies rigorously evaluating the health effects of LCS in humans are limited. One of the key questions is whether LCS are indeed a beneficial strategy for weight management and prevention of obesity. The current review discusses several methodological considerations in the design and interpretation of these studies. Specifically, we focus on the selection of study participants, inclusion of an appropriate control, importance of considering habitual LCS exposure, selection of specific LCS, dose and route of LCS administration, choice of study outcomes, and the context and generalizability of the study findings. These critical considerations will guide the design of future studies and thus assist in understanding the health effects of LCS. PMID:26936185

Understanding the metabolic and health effects of low-calorie sweeteners: methodological considerations and implications for future research.

PubMed

Sylvetsky, Allison C; Blau, Jenny E; Rother, Kristina I

2016-06-01

Consumption of foods, beverages, and packets containing low-calorie sweeteners (LCS) has increased markedly across gender, age, race/ethnicity, weight status, and socio-economic subgroups. However, well-controlled intervention studies rigorously evaluating the health effects of LCS in humans are limited. One of the key questions is whether LCS are indeed a beneficial strategy for weight management and prevention of obesity. The current review discusses several methodological considerations in the design and interpretation of these studies. Specifically, we focus on the selection of study participants, inclusion of an appropriate control, importance of considering habitual LCS exposure, selection of specific LCS, dose and route of LCS administration, choice of study outcomes, and the context and generalizability of the study findings. These critical considerations will guide the design of future studies and thus assist in understanding the health effects of LCS.

Traces of Catastrophe: A Handbook of Shock-Metamorphic Effects in Terrestrial Meteorite Impact Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, Bevan M.

1998-01-01

This handbook of Shock-Metamorphic Effects in Terrestrial Meteorite Impact Structures emphasizes terrestrial impact structures, field geology, and particularly the recognition and petrographic study of shock-metamorphic effects in terrestrial rocks. Individual chapters include: 1) Landscapes with Craters: Meteorite Impacts, Earth, and the Solar System; 2) Target Earth: Present, Past and Future; 3) Formation of Impact Craters; 4) Shock-Metamorphic Effects in Rocks and Minerals; 5) Shock-Metamorphosed Rocks (Impactities) in Impact Structures; 6) Impact Melts; 7) How to Find Impact Structures; and 8) What Next? Current Problems and Future Investigations.

Differentiation of Period, Age, and Cohort Effects on Drug Use 1976-1986. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series, Paper 22.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Malley, Patrick M.; And Others

Conducted as part of the Monitoring the Future project, this study used a cohort-sequential design to examine period, age, and cohort effects on substance use among American youth between the ages of 18 and 28 from the high school classes of 1976 to 1986. This manuscript supersedes Paper 14 in the series which reported on American youth from 18-24…

Studying Teachers and Schools: Michael Pressley's Legacy and Directions for Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohan, Lindsey; Lundeberg, Mary A.; Reffitt, Kelly

2008-01-01

Much of Michael Pressley's work during the past decade focused on the nature of highly effective, engaging literacy instruction. Michael Pressley believed that studying effective teachers and schools had the potential to influence more engaging and effective teaching, especially in underresourced schools. First, we describe the grounded…

Preeclampsia and Future Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Wu, Pensée; Haththotuwa, Randula; Kwok, Chun Shing; Babu, Aswin; Kotronias, Rafail A; Rushton, Claire; Zaman, Azfar; Fryer, Anthony A; Kadam, Umesh; Chew-Graham, Carolyn A; Mamas, Mamas A

2017-02-01

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific disorder resulting in hypertension and multiorgan dysfunction. There is growing evidence that these effects persist after pregnancy. We aimed to systematically evaluate and quantify the evidence on the relationship between preeclampsia and the future risk of cardiovascular diseases. We studied the future risk of heart failure, coronary heart disease, composite cardiovascular disease, death because of coronary heart or cardiovascular disease, stroke, and stroke death after preeclampsia. A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed to identify relevant studies. We used random-effects meta-analysis to determine the risk. Twenty-two studies were identified with >6.4 million women including >258 000 women with preeclampsia. Meta-analysis of studies that adjusted for potential confounders demonstrated that preeclampsia was independently associated with an increased risk of future heart failure (risk ratio [RR], 4.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.09-8.38), coronary heart disease (RR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.43-4.37), cardiovascular disease death (RR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.83-2.66), and stroke (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.29-2.55). Sensitivity analyses showed that preeclampsia continued to be associated with an increased risk of future coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke after adjusting for age (RR, 3.89; 95% CI, 1.83-8.26), body mass index (RR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.41-7.07), and diabetes mellitus (RR, 4.19; 95% CI, 2.09-8.38). Preeclampsia is associated with a 4-fold increase in future incident heart failure and a 2-fold increased risk in coronary heart disease, stroke, and death because of coronary heart or cardiovascular disease. Our study highlights the importance of lifelong monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors in women with a history of preeclampsia. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Health priorities and public preferences: the relative importance of past health experience and future health prospects.

PubMed

Dolan, Paul; Tsuchiya, Aki

2005-07-01

We explore people's choices where the preference for those with worse future health prospects and the preference for the young over the old conflict. The empirical study used scenarios with four attributes: past years, past health, future years without treatment, and future health without treatment. One hundred respondents ranked various patient groups described in these terms. The results suggest a strong effect of past years: younger groups (40-year-olds) were always chosen over older ones (60-year-olds). Past health was significant in one question but not the other and future health and years without treatment were both non-significant.

Financing Child Care: Future Arrangements. Report of the Task Force on Child Care: Series 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chenier, Nancy Miller; And Others

Future arrangements for financing child care in Canada is the subject of the five research studies in this volume. The studies were commissioned as part of an effort to provide detailed analyses of issues of special relevance to child care and parental leave policies and the effects of such issues on the changing Canadian family. Paper 1 provides…

Apollo/Skylab suit program-management systems study, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcniff, M.

1974-01-01

A management systems study for future spacesuit programs was conducted to assess past suit program requirements and management systems in addition to new and modified systems in order to identify the most cost effective methods for use during future spacesuit programs. The effort and its findings concerned the development and production of all hardware ranging from crew protective gear to total launch vehicles.

"On solid ground": family and school connectedness promotes adolescents' future orientation.

PubMed

Crespo, Carla; Jose, Paul E; Kielpikowski, Magdalena; Pryor, Jan

2013-10-01

The present study investigated the role of connectedness to the family and school contexts on future orientation of New Zealand adolescents. Participants were 1774 young people (51.9% female) aged between 9 and 16 years at time 1 of the study, who reported their connectedness to family and school and their perceptions of future orientation at three times of measurement one year apart. Structural equation modelling was used to test the combined role of family and school connectedness on future orientation over time. Findings supported a multiple mediation model in that adolescents' connectedness to family and school predicted more positive perceptions of future orientation both directly and indirectly via the effect of the context variables on each other. Copyright © 2013 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R

2007-01-01

The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

The role of tobacco outlet density in a smoking cessation intervention for urban youth.

PubMed

Mennis, Jeremy; Mason, Michael; Way, Thomas; Zaharakis, Nikola

2016-03-01

This study investigates the role of tobacco outlet density in a randomized controlled trial of a text messaging-based smoking cessation intervention conducted among a sample of 187 primarily African American youth in a midsize U.S. city. A moderated mediation model was used to test whether the indirect effect of residential tobacco outlet density on future smoking was mediated by the intention to smoke, and whether this indirect effect differed between adolescents who received the intervention and those who did not. Results indicated that tobacco outlet density is associated with intention to smoke, which predicts future smoking, and that the indirect effect of tobacco outlet density on future smoking is moderated by the intervention. Tobacco outlet density and the intervention can be viewed as competing forces on future smoking behavior, where higher tobacco outlet density acts to mitigate the sensitivity of an adolescent to the intervention's intended effect. Smoking cessation interventions applied to youth should consider tobacco outlet density as a contextual condition that can influence treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Meta-Analysis of Factors Influencing the Development of Trust in Automation: Implications for Understanding Autonomy in Future Systems.

PubMed

Schaefer, Kristin E; Chen, Jessie Y C; Szalma, James L; Hancock, P A

2016-05-01

We used meta-analysis to assess research concerning human trust in automation to understand the foundation upon which future autonomous systems can be built. Trust is increasingly important in the growing need for synergistic human-machine teaming. Thus, we expand on our previous meta-analytic foundation in the field of human-robot interaction to include all of automation interaction. We used meta-analysis to assess trust in automation. Thirty studies provided 164 pairwise effect sizes, and 16 studies provided 63 correlational effect sizes. The overall effect size of all factors on trust development was ḡ = +0.48, and the correlational effect was [Formula: see text]  = +0.34, each of which represented medium effects. Moderator effects were observed for the human-related (ḡ  = +0.49; [Formula: see text] = +0.16) and automation-related (ḡ = +0.53; [Formula: see text] = +0.41) factors. Moderator effects specific to environmental factors proved insufficient in number to calculate at this time. Findings provide a quantitative representation of factors influencing the development of trust in automation as well as identify additional areas of needed empirical research. This work has important implications to the enhancement of current and future human-automation interaction, especially in high-risk or extreme performance environments. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Placing Antismoking Graphic Warning Posters at Retail Point-of-Sale Locations Increases Some Adolescents' Susceptibility to Future Smoking.

PubMed

Shadel, William G; Martino, Steven C; Setodji, Claude; Dunbar, Michael; Kusuke, Daniela; Lanna, Serafina; Meyer, Amanda

2017-12-13

This experiment tested whether introducing graphic antitobacco posters at point-of-sale (POS) had any effect on adolescents' susceptibility to future cigarette smoking and whether these effects were moderated by adolescents' baseline risk of cigarette smoking. The study was conducted in the RAND StoreLab, a life-sized replica of a convenience store that was developed to experimentally evaluate how changing aspects of tobacco advertising displays in retail POS environments influence tobacco use risk and behavior during simulated shopping experiences. In this study, 441 adolescents were randomized to one of the four conditions in a 2 (graphic antismoking poster placed near the tobacco power wall: no, yes) × 2 (graphic antismoking poster placed near the cash register: no, yes) experimental design. The outcome of interest was susceptibility to future cigarette smoking. The addition of antismoking posters at POS led to a significant increase in future smoking susceptibility among those adolescents who already were at high risk for smoking in the future (p < .045). The introduction of graphic antismoking posters had no impact on committed never smokers, regardless of poster location; never smokers' susceptibility to future smoking was uniformly low across experimental conditions. Introducing graphic antismoking posters at POS may have the unintended effect of further increasing cigarette smoking susceptibility among adolescents already at risk. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Alternative Futures for the Education of Students with Severe Disabilities. Proceedings of the Conference on Severe and Multiple Handicaps: Alternative Futures (Edmonton, Canada, May 6-8, 1987).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baine, David, Ed.; And Others

This book contains 23 papers given at a 1987 Edmonton (Canada) conference. Papers have the following titles and authors: "Current Trends and Future Challenges in the Education of Students with Severe Handicaps" (Dick Sobsey); "How Often Do You Need to Collect Student Performance Data? A Study of the Effects of Frequency of Probe Data Collection…

Episodic future thinking reduces delay discounting and cigarette demand: an investigation of the good-subject effect.

PubMed

Stein, Jeffrey S; Tegge, Allison N; Turner, Jamie K; Bickel, Warren K

2018-04-01

Episodic future thinking (EFT), an intervention involving mental simulation of future events, has been shown to reduce both delay discounting and cigarette self-administration. In the present study, we extended these findings by showing that EFT in a web-based sample of smokers reduces delay discounting and intensity of demand for cigarettes (ad libitum consumption) in a hypothetical purchase task. No effect was observed on elasticity of demand (sensitivity to price) or cigarette craving. We also explored whether demand characteristics (specifically, the "good-subject" effect) might be responsible for observed effects. EFT participants were significantly better able than control participants to discern the experimental hypothesis. However, EFT participants were not better than controls at identifying whether they had been assigned to the experimental group and, likewise, showed no differences in attitudes about the experiment and experimenter. Importantly, effects of EFT on delay discounting and demand remained significant even when controlling for measures of demand characteristics, indicating that EFT's effects are independent of participants' perceptions about the experiment.

FBI fingerprint identification automation study: AIDS 3 evaluation report. Volume 6: Environmental analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulhall, B. D. L.

1980-01-01

The results of the analysis of the external environment of the FBI Fingerprint Identification Division are presented. Possible trends in the future environment of the Division that may have an effect on the work load were projected to determine if future work load will lie within the capability range of the proposed new system, AIDS 3. Two working models of the environment were developed, the internal and external model, and from these scenarios the projection of possible future work load volume and mixture was developed. Possible drivers of work load change were identified and assessed for upper and lower bounds of effects. Data used for the study were derived from historical information, analysis of the current situation and from interviews with various agencies who are users of or stakeholders in the present system.

Test Expectation Enhances Memory Consolidation across Both Sleep and Wake

PubMed Central

Wamsley, Erin J.; Hamilton, Kelly; Graveline, Yvette; Manceor, Stephanie; Parr, Elaine

2016-01-01

Memory consolidation benefits from post-training sleep. However, recent studies suggest that sleep does not uniformly benefit all memory, but instead prioritizes information that is important to the individual. Here, we examined the effect of test expectation on memory consolidation across sleep and wakefulness. Following reports that information with strong “future relevance” is preferentially consolidated during sleep, we hypothesized that test expectation would enhance memory consolidation across a period of sleep, but not across wakefulness. To the contrary, we found that expectation of a future test enhanced memory for both spatial and motor learning, but that this effect was equivalent across both wake and sleep retention intervals. These observations differ from those of least two prior studies, and fail to support the hypothesis that the “future relevance” of learned material moderates its consolidation selectively during sleep. PMID:27760193

Does Parent-Child Interaction Therapy Reduce Future Physical Abuse? A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Stephanie C.; Kim, Johnny S.; Tripodi, Stephen J.; Brown, Samantha M.; Gowdy, Grace

2016-01-01

Objective: To use meta-analytic techniques to evaluating the effectiveness of parent-child interaction therapy (PCIT) at reducing future physical abuse among physically abusive families. Methods: A systematic search identified six eligible studies. Outcomes of interest were physical abuse recurrence, child abuse potential, and parenting stress.…

Adolescents' Religiousness and Substance Use Are Linked via Afterlife Beliefs and Future Orientation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmes, Christopher; Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen

2017-01-01

Although religiousness has been identified as a protective factor against adolescent substance use, processes through which these effects may operate are unclear. The current longitudinal study examined sequential mediation of afterlife beliefs and future orientation in the relation between adolescent religiousness and cigarette, alcohol, and…

ISR effects for resonant Higgs production at future lepton colliders

DOE PAGES

Greco, Mario; Han, Tao; Liu, Zhen

2016-11-04

We study the effects of the initial state radiation on themore » $s$-channel Higgs boson resonant production at $$\\mu^+\\mu^-$$ and $e^+e^-$ colliders by convoluting with the beam energy spread profile of the collider and the Breit-Wigner resonance profile of the signal. We assess their impact on both the Higgs signal and SM backgrounds for the leading decay channels $$h\\rightarrow b\\bar b,\\ WW^*$$. In conclusion, our study improves the existing analyses of the proposed future resonant Higgs factories and provides further guidance for the accelerator designs with respect to the physical goals.« less

Feeling Closer to the Future Self and Doing Better: Temporal Psychological Mechanisms Underlying Academic Performance.

PubMed

Adelman, Robert Mark; Herrmann, Sarah D; Bodford, Jessica E; Barbour, Joseph E; Graudejus, Oliver; Okun, Morris A; Kwan, Virginia S Y

2017-06-01

This research examined the function of future self-continuity and its potential downstream consequences for academic performance through relations with other temporal psychological factors and self-control. We also addressed the influence of cultural factors by testing whether these relations differed by college generation status. Undergraduate students enrolled at a large public university participated in two studies (Study 1: N = 119, M age  = 20.55, 56.4% women; Study 2: N = 403, M age  = 19.83, 58.3% women) in which they completed measures of temporal psychological factors and psychological resources. In Study 2, we also obtained academic records to link responses to academic performance. Future self-continuity predicted subsequent academic performance and was related positively to future focus, negatively to present focus, and positively to self-control. Additionally, the relation between future focus and self-control was stronger for continuing-generation college students than first-generation college students. Future self-continuity plays a pivotal role in academic contexts. Findings suggest that it may have positive downstream consequences on academic achievement by directing attention away from the present and toward the future, which promotes self-control. Further, the strategy of focusing on the future may be effective in promoting self-control only for certain cultural groups. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A money management-based substance use treatment increases valuation of future rewards.

PubMed

Black, Anne C; Rosen, Marc I

2011-01-01

A positive association between delay discounting and substance use has been documented; substance users tend to discount future rewards more than non-users. However, studies detailing the responsiveness of delay discounting to interventions are lacking, and few have examined how any behavioral intervention affects delay discounting and whether these effects moderate changes in substance abuse. This study assesses the effectiveness of a money management intervention, Advisor-Teller Money Manager (ATM), in reducing delay discounting over time and the relationship of these effects to changes in cocaine use. Ninety psychiatric patients with histories of cocaine and/or alcohol use were randomly assigned to 36-weeks of ATM treatment or to a minimal-attention control condition. Delay discounting and cocaine use were measured throughout the intervention with a 52-week follow up measure of cocaine use. Analyses were conducted of (a) the effect of ATM on slopes of delay discounting and cocaine abstinence and (b) the relationship between change in delay discounting and change in cocaine abstinence. The ATM intervention was associated with significantly less delay discounting and less cocaine use over time relative to controls. Increases in delay discounting were associated with decreased abstinence from cocaine. ATM treatment decreased delay discounting rates and these effects extended to cocaine use. Concrete conceptualizations of future events, as occur in financial planning, with higher perceived probability may account for higher valuation of future rewards in counseled patients. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of future time perspective on delay discounting is mediated by the gray matter volume of vmPFC.

PubMed

Guo, Yiqun; Chen, Zhiyi; Feng, Tingyong

2017-07-28

Although several previous studies have shown that individuals' attitude towards time could affect their intertemporal preference, little is known about the neural basis of the relation between time perspective (TP) and delay discounting. In the present study, we quantified the gray matter (GM) cortical volume using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) methods to investigate the effect of TP on delay discounting (DD) across two independent samples. For group 1 (102 healthy college students; 46 male; 20.40 ± 1.87 years), behavioral results showed that only Future TP was a significant predictor of DD, and higher scores on Future TP were related to lower discounting rates. Whole-brain analysis revealed that steeper discounting correlated with greater GM volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and ventral part of posterior cingulate cortex (vPCC). Also, GM volume of a cluster in the vmPFC was correlated with Future TP. Interestingly, there was an overlapping region in vmPFC that was correlated with both DD and Future TP. Region-of-interest analysis further indicated that the overlapping region of vmPFC played a partially mediating role in the relation between Future TP and DD in the other independent dataset (Group 2, 36 healthy college students; 14 male; 20.18±1.80 years). Taken together, our results provide a new perspective from neural basis for explaining the relation between DD and future TP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effectiveness of Taiwan Building Energy Regulation under the influence of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Yu-Teng; Huang, Kuo-Tsang

2017-04-01

Building energy consumption comprises circa 40% of the national annual energy usage in Taiwan, and the majority proportion is attributed to the cooling apparatus usage. As cooling energy is closely related to the outdoor climate, it is expected that the future global climate change would amplify its demand. Considering the building energy regulation criteria are the minimum requirements that the building has to be complied with, this study tried to investigate whether the current building energy regulation in Taiwan, initiated in 2013, would still be capable of maintaining the energy use in the future as today's level. The research adopted EnergyPlus to simulate the annual cooling energy use of several virtual office building cases with the constructed hourly future weather data under future climate change scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 defined by IPCC. The virtual building cases are generated by a structured orthogonal array with each case is constituted by 10 building design parameters. The results revealed that the building energy consumption based on the current regulation criteria failed to maintain at the same level in the future as oppose to nowadays. By comparing to the current cooling energy usage, it would rise by 13% and 22% in RCP45 and RCP85, respectively, at the end of this century. This research further parametrically studied the potential cooling energy mitigation strategies and proposed effective building envelope design schemes in order to neutralize the future building energy increase.

Does cultural competency training of health professionals improve patient outcomes? A systematic review and proposed algorithm for future research.

PubMed

Lie, Désirée A; Lee-Rey, Elizabeth; Gomez, Art; Bereknyei, Sylvia; Braddock, Clarence H

2011-03-01

Cultural competency training has been proposed as a way to improve patient outcomes. There is a need for evidence showing that these interventions reduce health disparities. The objective was to conduct a systematic review addressing the effects of cultural competency training on patient-centered outcomes; assess quality of studies and strength of effect; and propose a framework for future research. The authors performed electronic searches in the MEDLINE/PubMed, ERIC, PsycINFO, CINAHL and Web of Science databases for original articles published in English between 1990 and 2010, and a bibliographic hand search. Studies that reported cultural competence educational interventions for health professionals and measured impact on patients and/or health care utilization as primary or secondary outcomes were included. Four authors independently rated studies for quality using validated criteria and assessed the training effect on patient outcomes. Due to study heterogeneity, data were not pooled; instead, qualitative synthesis and analysis were conducted. Seven studies met inclusion criteria. Three involved physicians, two involved mental health professionals and two involved multiple health professionals and students. Two were quasi-randomized, two were cluster randomized, and three were pre/post field studies. Study quality was low to moderate with none of high quality; most studies did not adequately control for potentially confounding variables. Effect size ranged from no effect to moderately beneficial (unable to assess in two studies). Three studies reported positive (beneficial) effects; none demonstrated a negative (harmful) effect. There is limited research showing a positive relationship between cultural competency training and improved patient outcomes, but there remains a paucity of high quality research. Future work should address challenges limiting quality. We propose an algorithm to guide educators in designing and evaluating curricula, to rigorously demonstrate the impact on patient outcomes and health disparities.

Understanding physical (in-) activity, overweight, and obesity in childhood: Effects of congruence between physical self-concept and motor competence.

PubMed

Utesch, T; Dreiskämper, D; Naul, R; Geukes, K

2018-04-12

Both the physical self-concept and actual motor competence are important for healthy future physical activity levels and consequently decrease overweight and obesity in childhood. However, children scoring high on motor competence do not necessarily report high levels of physical self-concept and vice versa, resulting in respective (in-) accuracy also referred to as (non-) veridicality. This study examines whether children's accuracy of physical self-concept is a meaningful predictive factor for their future physical activity. Motor competence, physical self-concept and physical activity were assessed in 3 rd grade and one year later in 4 th grade. Children's weight status was categorized based on WHO recommendations. Polynomial regression with Response surface analyses were conducted with a quasi-DIF approach examining moderating weight status effects. Analyses revealed that children with higher motor competence levels and higher self-perceptions show greater physical activity. Importantly, children who perceive their motor competence more accurately (compared to less) show more future physical activity. This effect is strong for underweight and overweight/obese children, but weak for normal weight children. This study indicates that an accurate self-perception of motor competence fosters future physical activity beyond single main effects, respectively. Hence, the promotion of actual motor competence should be linked with the respective development of accurate self-knowledge.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

PubMed

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Dimensionality of coping and its relation to depression.

PubMed

Rohde, P; Lewinsohn, P M; Tilson, M; Seeley, J R

1990-03-01

The dimensionality of coping, as measured by 65 items from 3 commonly used instruments, and the relation of coping and stress to concurrent and future depression were studied in a community sample of 742 older (greater than or equal to 50 years old) adults. Measures of coping, stress, and depression were obtained at 2 time points over a 2-year period. Depression was assessed by symptom checklist and by diagnostic interview. Three coping factors--Cognitive Self-Control, Ineffective Escapism, and Solace Seeking--that had adequate psychometric properties and accounted for 25% of the total item variance were identified. Ineffective Escapism was associated with current depression and had a direct and interactive effect on future depression, exacerbating the negative impact of stress rather than acting as a buffer. Although Cognitive Self-Control was unrelated to either concurrent or future depression, Solace Seeking significantly buffered the effect of stress in predicting a future diagnosis of depression. Stress and initial depression level predicted both measures of future depression. Gender (being female) predicted the future diagnosis of depression but not the increase of depressive symptoms.

Adaptive false memory: Imagining future scenarios increases false memories in the DRM paradigm.

PubMed

Dewhurst, Stephen A; Anderson, Rachel J; Grace, Lydia; van Esch, Lotte

2016-10-01

Previous research has shown that rating words for their relevance to a future scenario enhances memory for those words. The current study investigated the effect of future thinking on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) procedure. In Experiment 1, participants rated words from 6 DRM lists for relevance to a past or future event (with or without planning) or in terms of pleasantness. In a surprise recall test, levels of correct recall did not vary between the rating tasks, but the future rating conditions led to significantly higher levels of false recall than the past and pleasantness conditions did. Experiment 2 found that future rating led to higher levels of false recognition than did past and pleasantness ratings but did not affect correct recognition. The effect in false recognition was, however, eliminated when DRM items were presented in random order. Participants in Experiment 3 were presented with both DRM lists and lists of unrelated words. Future rating increased levels of false recognition for DRM lures but did not affect correct recognition for DRM or unrelated lists. The findings are discussed in terms of the view that false memories can be associated with adaptive memory functions.

Two routes toward optimism: how agentic and communal themes in autobiographical memories guide optimism for the future.

PubMed

Austin, Adrienne; Costabile, Kristi

2017-11-01

Autobiographical memories are particularly adaptive because they function not only to preserve the past, but also to direct our future thoughts and behaviours. Two studies were conducted to examine how communal and agentic themes of positive autobiographical memories differentially predicted the route from autobiographical memories to optimism for the future. Across two studies, results revealed that the degree to which participants focused on communal themes in their autobiographical memories predicted their experience of nostalgia. In turn, the experience of nostalgia increased participants' levels of self-esteem and in turn, optimism for the future. By contrast, the degree to which participants focused on agentic themes in their memories predicted self-esteem and optimism, operating outside the experience of nostalgia. These effects remained even after controlling for self-focused attention. Together, these studies provide greater understanding of the interrelations among autobiographical memory, self-concept, and time, and demonstrate how agency and communion operate to influence perceptions of one's future when thinking about the past.

Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato.

PubMed

Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A

2018-04-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

"Project ALERT's" Effects on Adolescents' Prodrug Beliefs: A Replication and Extension Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Heddy Kovach; Ringwalt, Chris L.; Hanley, Sean; Shamblen, Stephen R.

2010-01-01

This article represents a replication and extension of previous studies of the effects of "Project ALERT", a school-based substance use prevention program, on the prodrug beliefs of adolescents. Specifically, the authors' research examined "Project ALERT's" effects on adolescents' intentions to use substances in the future, beliefs about substance…

Khat Use and Neurobehavioral Functions: Suggestions for Future Studies

PubMed Central

Hoffman, Richard; al’Absi, Mustafa

2010-01-01

Although there is a rich body of research available regarding the effect of acute and chronic khat dosing in animal models, research on the behavioral and cognitive effects of khat in human subjects is not extensive and several of the available studies have been done only in the context of observational and single-case studies. In light of the absence of a substantial literature on the neurobehavioral deficits associated with khat use and to provide a context that could be used to identify themes for future research we review previous research that has focused on other stimulant drugs. This review highlights multiple areas of neurocognitive deficit that have been identified in previous studies of individuals who have been chronic users of stimulants, such as amphetamines and methamphetamines. The review highlights a substantial body of evidence demonstrating a wide range of learning and memory impairments including deficits that persist during abstinence from active drug use. This review does not imply a similar khat effect, but due to some similarities pharmacologically between the active components of khat (cathinone and cathine) and amphetamines, future studies examining these same domains of cognitive functioning in chronic khat users and abstinent khat users appears to be warranted, if possible using some of the same or similar laboratory measures. PMID:20553832

Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.

PubMed

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; O'Connor, Fiona M

2017-12-05

This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O 3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O 3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O 3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH 4 ) abundances lead to increases in background O 3 that offset the O 3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O 3 - termed the O 3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O 3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O 3 distribution, such as daily maximum O 3 . Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O 3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O 3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O 3 -related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM 2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O 3 -respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH 4 leads to global and European excess O 3 -respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O 3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.

The cost-effectiveness of interventions in diabetes: a review of published economic evaluations in the UK setting, with an eye on the future.

PubMed

Tucker, Daniel M D; Palmer, Andrew J

2011-04-01

To synthesise key outcomes data from cost-effectiveness studies in diabetes, in the UK setting, and describe a narrative for the evidence-base, in order to understand the direction that future health economics research in this field could be heading. The peer-reviewed literature was searched at http://www.pubmed.com for health economics analyses in diabetes in the UK setting published between 1995 and 2008, using the keywords: "costs", "cost-effectiveness", "diabetes", "UK". Studies on screening for diabetes or prevention of diabetes were excluded, along with studies that looked purely at cost of diabetes treatment or monitoring. There were over 350 hits on MEDLINE. A total of 23 articles were identified and reviewed. 18 studies were in type 2, two in type 1 and three studies in both types 1 and type 2 diabetes. All studies evaluated treatment from the perspective of the NHS, with the time horizons varying from 12 months to patient lifetimes. 13 studies estimated quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). The majority of studies used health economics modelling techniques to project clinical benefit and cost outcomes beyond the context of clinical trials, with Markov-type models predominating. The United Kingdom Prospective Study of Diabetes was the most frequently cited source of clinical effectiveness and cost data. Most studies were funded by the pharmaceutical industry and evaluated more expensive products, rather than cheaper generic therapies such as human insulin and metformin monotherapy. Treatment-to-target in patients with diabetes in the UK is generally cost-effective and sometimes cost-saving vs. standard care. Ongoing health economics analysis in diabetes is essential as new clinical data are published. Future analysis of clinical and cost outcomes in diabetes could be expected to look beyond the impact of interventions on HbA1c in isolation, as manufacturers seek to differentiate innovative products in the market. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the competitiveness in the market for interventions in diabetes will lead to future cost-effectiveness analysis taking more interest in comparisons of off-patent medication and generic, fixed-dose combination therapies. Copyright © 2010 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future climate data from RCP 4.5 and occurrence of malaria in Korea.

PubMed

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-10-15

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001-2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea

PubMed Central

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P.; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-01-01

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future. PMID:25321875

Is news media related to civic engagement? The effects of interest in and discussions about the news media on current and future civic engagement of adolescents.

PubMed

Erentaitė, Rasa; Žukauskienė, Rita; Beyers, Wim; Pilkauskaitė-Valickienė, Rasa

2012-06-01

This study explored whether discussions about the media, when positively linked to interest in the news media, were related to adolescents' current and future civic engagement. A sample of 2638 adolescents (age M = 17, SD = 1.2), who participated in a school-based study on positive socialization, completed self-report measures on interest in the news media and discussions about the media with parents and friends. Current civic engagement was measured by involvement in volunteering and civic commitments. Future civic engagement was measured by intentions to participate in civic activities in the future. The results showed that more interpersonal discussions about the media and higher interest in the news media both predicted higher civic engagement. Positive links between discussions about the media and current civic engagement were partly mediated by interest in the news media. In addition, interest in the news media together with current civic engagement fully mediated a positive link between discussions about the media and future civic engagement. Moderating effects of gender were observed, with discussions about the media a better predictor of boys' interest in the news media, and current civic engagement a better predictor of girls' future civic engagement. Copyright © 2011 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Brief Intervention Services on Drug Using Truant Youth Arrest Charges over Time

PubMed Central

Dembo, Richard; Briones-Robinson, Rhissa; Wareham, Jennifer; Schmeidler, James; Winters, Ken C.; Barrett, Kimberly; Ungaro, Rocio; Karas, Lora M.; Belenko, Steven

2012-01-01

School truancy is a serious concern in the U.S., with far-reaching negative consequences. Truancy has been positively associated with substance use and delinquent behavior; however, research is limited. Consequently, the Truancy Brief Intervention Project was established to treat and prevent substance use and other risky behaviors among truants. This article examines whether the Brief Intervention program is more effective in preventing future delinquency over a 12-month follow-up period, than the standard truancy program. Results indicate the Brief Intervention was marginally significant in effecting future delinquency among truants, compared to the standard truancy program. Future implications of this study are discussed. PMID:25382960

Exploring the content and quality of episodic future simulations in semantic dementia.

PubMed

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-12-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the amodal loss of semantic knowledge in the context of relatively preserved recent episodic memory. Recent studies have demonstrated that despite relatively intact episodic memory the capacity for future simulation in SD is profoundly impaired, resulting in an asymmetric profile where past retrieval is significantly better than future simulation (referred to as a past>future effect). Here, we sought to identify the origins of this asymmetric profile by conducting a fine-grained analysis of the contextual details provided during past retrieval and future simulation in SD. Participants with SD (n=14), Alzheimer's disease (n=11), and healthy controls (n=14) had previously completed an experimental past-future interview in which they generated three past events from the previous year, and three future events in the next year, and provided subjective qualitative ratings of vividness, emotional valence, emotional intensity, task difficulty, and personal significance for each event described. Our results confirmed the striking impairment for future simulation in SD, despite a relative preservation of past episodic retrieval. Examination of the contextual details provided for past memories and future simulations revealed significant impairments irrespective of contextual detail type for future simulations in SD, and demonstrated that the future thinking deficit in this cohort was driven by a marked decline in the provision of internal (episodic) event details. In contrast with this past>future effect for internal event details, SD patients displayed a future>past effect for external (non-episodic) event details. Analyses of the qualitative ratings provided for past and future events indicated that SD patients' phenomenological experience did not differ between temporal conditions. Our findings underscore the fact that successful extraction of episodic elements from the past is not sufficient for the generation of novel future simulations in SD. The notable disconnect between objective task performance and patients' subjective experience during future simulation likely reflects the tendency of SD patients to recast entire past events into the future condition. Accordingly, the familiarity of the recapitulated details results in similar ratings of vividness and emotionality across temporal conditions, despite marked differences in the richness of contextual details as the patient moves from the past to the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-Related Positivity Effects and Autobiographical Memory Detail: Evidence from a Past/Future Source Memory Task

PubMed Central

Gallo, David A.; Korthauer, Laura E.; McDonough, Ian M.; Teshale, Salom; Johnson, Elizabeth L.

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether the age-related positivity effect strengthens specific event details in autobiographical memory. Participants retrieved past events or imagined future events in response to neutral or emotional cue words. Older adults rated each kind of event more positively than younger adults, demonstrating an age-related positivity effect. We next administered a source memory test. Participants were given the same cue words and tried to retrieve the previously generated event and its source (past or future). Accuracy on this source test should depend on the recollection of specific details about the earlier generated events, providing a more objective measure of those details than subjective ratings. We found that source accuracy was greater for positive than negative future events in both age groups, suggesting that positive future events were more detailed. In contrast, valence did not affect source accuracy for past events in either age group, suggesting that positive and negative past events were equally detailed. Although aging can bias people to focus on positive aspects of experience, this bias does not appear to strengthen the availability of details for positive relative to negative past events. PMID:21919591

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

PubMed

Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

[Role of the social support network which influences age of death and physical function of elderly people: study of trends in and outside of Japan and future problems].

PubMed

Kishi, Reiko; Horikawa, Naoko

2004-02-01

Concerning associations between the social support network and physical health of the elderly, longitudinal studies have been conducted using various measurement indexes. The studies indicated that the support network influences on physical function and life expectancy. In this study we compared research papers from Japan and elsewhere that appeared after 1980, from the viewpoint of 1) social support effects, and 2) social network effects, to examine potential problems in the future. The main knowledge obtained was that the receipt of emotional support, wide network size, and participation in social activities reduced the risk of early death and decrease in physical function of elderly people. Sex differences were indicated, and in many cases, the effects were more remarkable in men than women. In addition the positive influence of receiving help from a support network, a major subject of conventional research, the effects of offering help to others and negative findings were also examined. It has been indicated that participation in volunteer groups and offer of support to other people can prevent decrease in physical function or early death. As negative effects, improper instrumental support rather disturbs the mental and physical independence of elderly people. As future issues, it is necessary to focus on both positive/negative and receipt/offer effects of support network, and to clarify how to provide example which best match the life of elderly people by comparing sexes and regions. It is also important to actually apply the knowledge gained from observational studies to prevent the elderly from becoming a condition requiring care, and to develop intervention studies which can increase the social contacts of elderly people at the same time as conducting health education and medical treatment.

Deepwater Horizon NRDA Injury Assessment | NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration

Science.gov Websites

organisms. Oil can kill organisms or have effects on future generations. Potential long-term harmful effects systems. We conducted hundreds of scientific studies to determine whether there have been negative effects

The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change.

Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for PTSD and Depression Symptoms Reduces Risk for Future Intimate Partner Violence among Interpersonal Trauma Survivors

PubMed Central

Iverson, Katherine M.; Gradus, Jaimie L.; Resick, Patricia A.; Suvak, Michael K.; Smith, Kamala F.; Monson, Candice M.

2010-01-01

Objective Women who develop symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression subsequent to interpersonal trauma are at heightened risk for future intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization. Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is effective in reducing PTSD and depression symptoms, yet limited research has investigated the effectiveness of cognitive-behavior therapy in reducing risk for future IPV among interpersonal trauma survivors. Method This study examined the effect of CBT for PTSD and depressive symptoms on the risk of future IPV victimization in a sample of women survivors of interpersonal violence. The current sample included 150 women diagnosed with PTSD secondary to an array of interpersonal traumatic events who were participating in a randomized clinical trial of different forms of cognitive processing therapy for the treatment of PTSD. Participants were assessed at nine time points as part of the larger trial: pre-treatment, six times during treatment, post-treatment, and at 6-month follow-up. Results As hypothesized, reductions in both PTSD and depressive symptoms during treatment were associated with a decreased likelihood of IPV victimization at a 6-month follow-up even after controlling for recent IPV (i.e., IPV from a current partner within the year prior to beginning the study) and prior interpersonal traumas. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of identifying and treating PTSD and depressive symptoms among interpersonal trauma survivors as a method for reducing risk for future IPV. PMID:21341889

A Leadership Preparatory Program and Emotional Intelligence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tison, Jackie

2011-01-01

Within the construct of No Child Left Behind, training future educational leaders has become more important to universities and school systems alike. Educational leadership programs have begun to analyze ways to adequately prepare future leaders to be effective in all aspects of leading including the emotional areas. The purpose of this study was…

Whose Voices Will Be Heard? Creating a Vision for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Margit E.

1992-01-01

Discusses society in the future. Expresses concern over social problems and misuse by the media of terms relating to diversity and multiculturalism. Lists themes for effective instruction in social studies as integration of topics and meaningful, challenging, active, and value-based learning. Urges that self-esteem, mutual respect, and cooperative…

The Role of Mobile Technologies in Pre-Service Foreign Language Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tolosa, Constanza

2017-01-01

Pre-service teacher education plays a pivotal role in ensuring that future teachers are prepared to integrate technology effectively to their teaching. One way of improving readiness in future teachers is integrating mobile technologies to discipline-specific teacher education courses. This article presents three case studies drawn from…

The Effects of Budget, Delegation, and Other Variables on the Future of School Nursing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tetuan, Theresa M.; Akagi, Cynthia G.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this exploratory research study was to survey Kansas school nurses to determine the impact of budget, delegation, and other variables on the future of school nursing. Issues of education and certification status, educational budget, delegation, school nurse-to-student ratio, number of school buildings assigned, Metropolitan…

Mass Media Values and the Future of Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pulliam, John D.

The paper focuses on the impact of mass media, especially television, on the educational process and outlines implications for the future. Studies point out that children view an average of 8,000 hours of television annually between ages three and five. Positive effects include increase in the vocabulary of young children, a better appreciation of…

The development of mentoring-relationship quality, future-planning style, and career goal setting among adolescents from a disadvantaged background.

PubMed

Lau, Wendy S Y; Zhou, Xiao-Chun; Lai, Simon M K

2017-03-01

Our behaviors are regulated by our perception of the future based on past experiences and knowledge. Children from a disadvantaged background might encounter obstacles more frequently when they plan their future. It is possible that a good relationship with an adult volunteer who provides assistance and guidance in the disadvantaged youth's development may facilitate their future-planning style and career goal setting. The present study investigated the role of a good mentoring relationship in promoting a disadvantaged youth's future-planning style and goal-setting ability. It focused on children from a disadvantaged background who participated in the Child Development Fund (CDF) in Hong Kong. In the study, 187 CDF participants (93 with high mentoring-relationship quality [MRQ] and 94 with low MRQ) and 208 comparison group participants were able to complete all four times of the survey. Repeated-measures analyses of covariance showed that Group main effects were observed for both future-planning style, F(2, 374) = 5.92, p < .01, and career goal-setting self-efficacy, F(2, 376) = 6.07, p < .01. Main Time effect was also found for the latter, F(3, 1128) = 7.99, p < .01. A significant Group × Time interaction effect was observed for future-planning style only, F(5.78, 1081.21) = 2.17, p < .05. Our results suggest that participants with high MRQ outperformed the comparison group in both future-planning style and career goal-setting self-efficacy. Multiple regression analyses revealed that mean MRQ score accounted for 3.9% (p < .01) of the variance in future-planning style and 4.1% (p < .01) of the variance in career goal-setting self-efficacy, supporting the role of a good mentoring relationship. Mentors have introduced new resources to the disadvantaged youths with high MRQ and have promoted the development of various skills through modeling. © 2017 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Strategies for Development of Palliative Care From the Perspectives of General Population and Health Care Professionals: A Japanese Outreach Palliative Care Trial of Integrated Regional Model Study.

PubMed

Yoshida, Saran; Miyashita, Mitsunori; Morita, Tatsuya; Akizuki, Nobuya; Akiyama, Miki; Shirahige, Yutaka; Ichikawa, Takayuki; Eguchi, Kenji

2015-09-01

This study primarily aimed to identify future actions required to promote palliative care in Japan. The future actions regarded as effective by the general population were "improve physicians' skill in palliative care" (61%), "create a counseling center for cancer" (61%), and "improve nurses' skill in palliative care" (60%). In contrast, future actions regarded as effective by the health care professionals were "set up a Web site that provides information about cancer" (72%), "promote consultation with specialists in palliative care" (71%), and "open an outpatient department specializing in palliative care" (70%). The results suggest (1) development and maintenance of settings; (2) enhancement of palliative care education and training programs for health care providers; and (3) improvement in distributing information about cancer and regional palliative care resources to the general population. © The Author(s) 2014.

Using health technology assessment to identify gaps in evidence and inform study design for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Tunis, Sean R; Turkelson, Charles

2012-12-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is primarily used as a tool to ensure that clinical and policy decisions are made with the benefit of a systematic analysis of all completed research. This article describes the progress and potential for HTA reports to improve the quality and relevance of future research and to better serve the information needs of patients, clinicians, payers, and other decision makers. We conducted a review of the current published literature and working papers describing past, ongoing, and future initiatives that rely on HTA reports to identify gaps in evidence and improve the design of future research. Although still in a developmental stage, significant progress is under way to improve methods for using HTA reports for the systematic identification of research gaps, prioritization of future research, and improvement of study designs. Several well-defined frameworks have been developed to assist those who produce HTA to become more effective in these additional domains of work. A recurring element of this work is the importance of meaningfully involving stakeholders in the process of defining future research needs and designing studies to address them. Patients, clinicians, and payers are important audiences for completed research and are now recognized as serving an important role in determining what future research is needed. There are substantial opportunities to improve the quality, relevance, and efficiency of clinical research. Recent efforts are beginning to demonstrate the potential to build on the work invested in developing HTA reports to provide a roadmap toward these objectives.

National Facilities study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

This study provides a set of recommendations for improving the effectiveness of our nation's aeronautics and space facilities. The study plan considers current and future government and commercial needs as well as DOD and NASA mission requirements through the year 2023. It addresses shortfalls in existing capabilities, new facility requirements, upgrades, consolidations, and phase-out of existing facilities. If the recommendations are implemented, they will provide world-class capability where it is vital to our country's needs and make us more efficient in meeting future needs.

Future thinking instructions improve prospective memory performance in adolescents.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Kretschmer, Anett; Schnitzspahn, Katharina Marlene

2017-07-01

Studies on prospective memory (PM) development in adolescents point to age-related increases through to adulthood. The goal of the present study was to examine whether instructing adolescents to engage in an episodic prospection of themselves executing future actions (i.e., future thinking) when forming an intention would improve their PM performance and reduce age-related differences. Further, we set out to explore whether future thinking instructions result in stronger memory traces and/or stronger cue-context associations by evaluating retrospective memory for the PM cues after task completion and monitoring costs during PM task processing. Adolescents and young adults were allocated to either the future thinking, repeated-encoding or standard condition. As expected, adolescents had fewer correct PM responses than young adults. Across age groups, PM performance in the standard condition was lower than in the other encoding conditions. Importantly, the results indicate a significant interaction of age by encoding condition. While adolescents benefited most from future thinking instructions, young adults performed best in the repeated-encoding condition. The results also indicate that the beneficial effects of future thinking may result from deeper intention-encoding through the simulation of future task performance.

Framing and visual type: Effect on future Zika vaccine uptake intent

PubMed Central

Guidry, Jeanine P.D.; Carlyle, Kellie E.; LaRose, Jessica G.; Perrin, Paul; Ryan, Mark; Messner, Marcus; Adams, Jay

2018-01-01

Introduction The Zika virus is associated with the birth defect microcephaly, and while a vaccine was not available in early- 2017, several were under development. This study’s purpose was to identify effective communication strategies to promote uptake of a new vaccine, particularly among women of reproductive age. Design and methods In order to study the effects of Zika message framing (gain vs. loss) and visual type (photo vs. infographic) on future Zika vaccine uptake intent, a 2×2 between-subjects experiment was performed via an online survey in 2017 among 339 U.S. women of reproductive age (18-49 years). Participants were exposed to one of four messages, all resembling Instagram posts: gain-framed vs. loss-framed infographic, and gain-framed vs. loss-framed photo. These messages were followed by questions about Zika vaccine uptake intent as well as intermediate psychosocial variables that could lead to intent. Results There was no interaction between framing and visual type (P=0.116), and there was no effect for framing (P=0.185) or visual type (P=0.724) on future Zika vaccine uptake intent, which is likely indicative of insufficient dosage of the intervention. However, when focusing on intermediate psychosocial constructs that are known to influence behavior and intent, gain-framed messages were more effective in increasing subjective norms (P=0.005) as related to a future Zika vaccine, as well as perceived benefits (P=0.016) and self-efficacy (P=0.032). Conclusions Gain-framed messages seem to be more effective than loss-framed messages to increase several constructs that could, in turn, affect future Zika vaccine uptake intent. This is a novel finding since, traditionally, loss-framed messages are considered more beneficial in promoting vaccine-related health behaviors. Significance for public healthThe study described in this paper is significant for the field of public health for several reasons: It takes a proactive approach in studying messaging focused on the Zika vaccine before that vaccine is available, allowing for quick implementation of its limited results. In addition, this study centers on messaging in the form of realistic images consistent with those that could be posted on Instagram, thereby focusing on a relatively new yet immensely popular communications platform that few are focusing on presently. PMID:29780762

Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it

2012-01-15

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of howmore » the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.« less

Physical Activity Outcomes of Nurse-Delivered Lifestyle Interventions.

PubMed

Richards, Elizabeth A; Cai, Yun

2016-02-01

Promotion of physical activity has been a public health priority for decades. Over two million home healthcare nurses are at the front line to deliver effective health education and health promotion interventions in the United States. The purpose of this systematic review is to examine the effectiveness of nurse-delivered lifestyle physical interventions on physical activity outcomes conducted in home settings. Computerized database and ancestry search strategies located distinct intervention trials between 1990 and 2015. A total of eight quantitative studies were reviewed. Four of the eight studies were randomized control trials and four studies used an uncontrolled pretest-posttest design. The eight studies represented a total of 1,221 participants with mean ages from 43 to 81. Study sample sizes ranged from 16 to 504. Seven of the eight studies demonstrated modest effect of nurse-delivered home-based interventions on physical activity behaviors. Home-based physical activity promotion was most often incorporated into secondary prevention of postacute diseases, chronic disease management, or disease prevention/health promotion. Findings indicate that nurse-delivered home-based physical activity promotion show overall effectiveness in general adult populations. Possible effective intervention domains were also discussed in this review to guide future home-based health promotion. More large randomized controlled trials with longer study/follow-up periods and studies with cost-effectiveness data are warranted in future research.

Methods, History, Selected Findings, and Recommendations from the Louisiana School Effectiveness Study, 1980-85

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teddlie, Charles; Stringfield, Samuel; Desselle, Stephanie

2017-01-01

An overview of the first five years of the Louisiana School Effectiveness Study (LSES) is described. The longitudinal nature of the study has allowed the research team to develop an evolving methodology, one benefiting from prior external studies as well as prior phases of LSES. Practical implications and recommendations for future research are…

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Jin, Jonghun; Lee, Ji-Woo; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Joh, Minsu

2017-12-01

This study examines future changes in precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea using five regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by single global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Focusing on summer season (June-July-August) when heavy rains dominate in this region, future changes in precipitation and associated variables including temperature, moisture, and winds are analyzed by comparing future conditions (2071-2100) with a present climate (1981-2005). Physical mechanisms are examined by analyzing moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa level, which is found to have a close relationship to precipitation and by assessing contribution of thermodynamic effect (TH, moisture increase due to warming) and dynamic effect (DY, atmospheric circulation change) to changes in the moisture flux convergence. Overall background warming and moistening are projected over the Northeast Asia with a good inter-RCM agreement, indicating dominant influence of the driving GCM. Also, RCMs consistently project increases in the frequency of heavy rains and the intensification of extreme precipitation over South Korea. Analysis of moisture flux convergence reveals competing impacts between TH and DY. The TH effect contributes to the overall increases in mean precipitation over Northeast Asia and in extreme precipitation over South Korea, irrespective of models and scenarios. However, DY effect is found to induce local-scale precipitation decreases over the central part of the Korean Peninsula with large inter-RCM and inter-scenario differences. Composite analysis of daily anomaly synoptic patterns indicates that extreme precipitation events are mainly associated with the southwest to northeast evolution of large-scale low-pressure system in both present and future climates.

Adolescents' Religiousness and Substance Use Are Linked via Afterlife Beliefs and Future Orientation.

PubMed

Holmes, Christopher J; Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen

2017-10-01

Although religiousness has been identified as a protective factor against adolescent substance use, processes through which these effects may operate are unclear. The current longitudinal study examined sequential mediation of afterlife beliefs and future orientation in the relation between adolescent religiousness and cigarette, alcohol, and marijuana use. Participants included 131 adolescents (mean age at Time 1 = 12 years) at three time points with approximately two year time intervals. Structural equation modeling indicated that higher religiousness at Time 1 was associated with higher afterlife beliefs at Time 2. Higher afterlife beliefs at Time 2 were associated with higher future orientation at Time 2, which in turn was associated with lower use of cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana at Time 3. Our findings highlight the roles of afterlife beliefs and future orientation in explaining the beneficial effects of religiousness against adolescent substance use.

Is News Media Related to Civic Engagement? The Effects of Interest in and Discussions about the News Media on Current and Future Civic Engagement of Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erentaite, Rasa; Zukauskiene, Rita; Beyers, Wim; Pilkauskaite-Valickiene, Rasa

2012-01-01

This study explored whether discussions about the media, when positively linked to interest in the news media, were related to adolescents' current and future civic engagement. A sample of 2638 adolescents (age M = 17, SD = 1.2), who participated in a school-based study on positive socialization, completed self-report measures on interest in the…

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

PubMed

Shafer, Sarah L; Bartlein, Patrick J; Gray, Elizabeth M; Pelltier, Richard T

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Relative Deprivation and Relative Wealth Enhances Anti-Immigrant Sentiments: The V-Curve Re-Examined

PubMed Central

Jetten, Jolanda; Mols, Frank; Postmes, Tom

2015-01-01

Previous research has shown that negative attitudes towards immigrants and support for anti-immigrant parties are observed both among those experiencing relative deprivation and those experiencing relative gratification (so called v-curve). Whereas the effect of relative deprivation is intuitive, the effect of relative gratification is more difficult to explain. Why would economic prosperity provoke negative attitudes towards immigrants? We first present correlational (Study 1) and experimental (Study 2) support for the v-curve. In Study 1, in a national Swiss referendum, a higher percentage anti-immigrant voting was found in cantons with relatively lower and relatively higher relative disposable income. In Study 2, in a hypothetical society, more opposition to ‘newcomers’ joining society was found among poor or above average wealth group members than among those in a moderate wealth group condition. In Study 3, we replicate this finding and also show that opposition to immigration is higher for all wealth groups when societal inequality is growing rather than declining. In a final study, we examine different forms of relative gratification and mediators of the relationship between relative gratification and opposition to immigration (i.e., identification, collective self-definition as competent and cold, and fear about future wealth). Only fear about future wealth mediates this relationship. We conclude that, paradoxically, relative gratification effects are partly due to the fear of future deprivation. PMID:26461497

Determining an Effective Intervention within a Brief Experimental Analysis for Reading: A Meta-Analytic Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Matthew K.; Wagner, Dana

2008-01-01

The current study applied meta-analytic procedures to brief experimental analysis research of reading fluency interventions to better inform practice and suggest areas for future research. Thirteen studies were examined to determine what magnitude of effect was needed to identify an intervention as the most effective within a brief experimental…

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively. PMID:29664961

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.

PubMed

Thapa, Sunil; Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.

Psycho-educational strategies to promote fluid adherence in adult hemodialysis patients: a review of intervention studies.

PubMed

Welch, Janet L; Thomas-Hawkins, Charlotte

2005-07-01

We reviewed psycho-educational intervention studies that were designed to reduce interdialytic weight gain (IDWG) in adult hemodialysis patients. Our goals were to critique research methods, describe the effectiveness of tested interventions, and make recommendations for future research. Medline, PsychInfo, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Applied Health (CINAHL) databases were searched to identify empirical work. Each study was evaluated in terms of sample, design, theoretical framework, intervention delivery, and outcome. Nine studies were reviewed. Self-monitoring appears to be a promising strategy to be considered to reduce IDWG. Theory was not usually used to guide interventions, designs generally had control groups, interventions were delivered individually, more than one intervention was delivered at a time, the duration of the intervention varied greatly, there was no long-term follow-up, IDWG was the only outcome, and IDWG was operationalized in different ways. Theoretical models and methodological rigor are needed to guide future research. Specific recommendations on design, measurement, and conceptual issues are offered to enhance the effectiveness of future research.

Predictive Effects of Social Anxiety on Increases in Future Peer Victimization for a Community Sample of Middle-School Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulder, Saskia F.; Hutteman, Roos; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2017-01-01

This longitudinal study focused on clarifying the direction of effects between social anxiety and victimization in a community-based sample. In addition, we studied the moderating effect of gender on this association. A total of 1,649 children (45% boys, approximately 12 years old) of 65 secondary-school classes participated in the study.…

Alcohol portrayals in movies, music videos and soap operas and alcohol use of young people: current status and future challenges.

PubMed

Koordeman, Renske; Anschutz, Doeschka J; Engels, Rutger C M E

2012-01-01

To provide an overview of studies of the effects of alcohol portrayals in movies, music videos and soap operas on alcohol consumption among young people. Moreover, we highlight important issues that need to be addressed in future research. This paper reviews the current literature on alcohol portrayals on-screen and the associated gaps and challenges in alcohol media research. Thirteen longitudinal studies, 8 cross-sectional studies and 6 experimental studies examined the effects of alcohol portrayals on-screen on alcohol consumption among young people. They showed a relation between on-screen alcohol exposure and onset and progression of alcohol consumption. A distinction can be made between long-term effects and immediate effects on alcohol consumption. Only lately, more attention has been paid to processes underlying the effects of on-screen alcohol exposure. Replication of findings and development of new research designs is essential. On-screen alcohol exposure does not affect everyone. It is important to test individual differences in susceptibility to on-screen alcohol portrayals. Further, not all media alcohol portrayal might provoke similar effects. It is therefore essential to test the effect of different types of alcohol portrayals.

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.

The Impact of Word Processing on Office Administration in the Medical and Allied Health Professions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Platt, Naomi Dornfeld

The effect of word processing equipment on the future medical secretarial science curriculum was studied. A literature search focused on word processing and the medical and allied health professions, word processing and business education, and futuring of and changes in the secretarial science curriculum. Questionnaires to identify various aspects…

External Insect Morphology: A Negative Factor in Attitudes toward Insects and Likelihood of Incorporation in Future Science Education Settings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Ron; Wagler, Amy

2012-01-01

This study investigated if the external morphology of an insect had a negative effect on United States (US) preservice elementary teacher's attitudes toward insects and beliefs concerning the likelihood of incorporating insects into future science education settings. 270 US kindergarten through sixth grade preservice elementary teachers…

Educating for the Future in Family Life. Information Series No. 228.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Elizabeth J.

This paper utilizes knowledge gained from work on future issues related to families, the work of futurists on social trends and technological development, and recent studies in home economics to draw conclusions regarding what people will need to know in the 1980s and beyond to be intelligent consumers and effective homemakers. The first of six…

When the Future Feels Worse than the Past: A Temporal Inconsistency in Moral Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caruso, Eugene M.

2010-01-01

Logically, an unethical behavior performed yesterday should also be unethical if performed tomorrow. However, the present studies suggest that the timing of a transgression has a systematic effect on people's beliefs about its moral acceptability. Because people's emotional reactions tend to be more extreme for future events than for past events,…

The Impact of FTP on Commitment to Career Choices: Situating within a Social Cognitive Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phan, Huy P.

2015-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) is an important theoretical construct that may assist educators in their understanding of individuals' learning, motivation and decision-making. There is empirical evidence attesting to the predictive effects of anticipation of future goals on both cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes. The present study, based on…

Onward to Outcomes in the School of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Millea, Susan

This paper discusses the results of a study that investigated the effectiveness of a comprehensive school-based service program in Texas. The "School for the Future" project was a 5-year demonstration project in 4 Texas cities that was designed to develop and coordinate health and social services though targeted schools in low income,…

Perceptions of Organizational Effectiveness over Organizational Life Cycles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cameron, Kim S.; Whetten, David A.

1981-01-01

Student participants at two universities played multisession simulation games involving the development of 18 organizations. Post-session surveys of 583 participants indicated that organizational effectiveness became more important to participants as the organizations developed. This suggests that future organizational effectiveness studies should…

Upstream effects of dams on alluvial channels: state-of-the-art and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liro, Maciej

2017-04-01

More than 50,000 large dams (with the height above 15 m) operate all over the world and, thus, they significantly disturb water and sediment transport in river systems. These disturbances are recognized as one of the most important factors shaping river morphology in the Anthropocene. Downstream effects of dams have been well documented in numerous case studies and supported by predictions from existing models. In contrast, little is known on the upstream effects of dams on alluvial channels. This review highlights the lack of studies on sedimentological, hydromorphological and biogeomorphological adjustments of alluvial rivers in the base-level raised zones of backwater upstream of dam reservoirs where water level fluctuations occur. Up to date, it has been documented that backwater effects may facilitate fine and coarse sediment deposition, increase groundwater level, provide higher and more frequent channel and floodplain inundation and lead to significant morphological changes. But there have been no studies quantifying short- and long-term consequences of these disturbances for the hydromorphological and biogeomorphological feedbacks that control development of alluvial channels. Some recent studies carried out on gravel-bed and fine-grained bed rivers show that the above mentioned disturbances facilitate vegetation expansion on exposed channel sediments and floodplain influencing river morphology, which suggests that backwater area of alluvial rivers may be treated as the hotspot of bio-geomorphological changes in a fluvial system. To set the stage for future research on upstream effects of dams, this work presents the existing state-of-art and proposes some hypotheses which may be tested in future studies. This study was carried out within the scope of the Research Project 2015/19/N/ST10/01526 financed by the National Science Centre of Poland

Experimental gravitation in space - Is there a future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wharton, R. A.; McKay, C. P.; Mancinelli, R. L.; Simmons, G. M.

Experimental gravitation enters the 1990s with a past full of successes, but with a future full of uncertainties. Intellectually, the field is as vigorous as ever, with major thrusts in three main areas: the search for gravitational radiation, the study of post and post-post Newtonian effects, and the detection of hypothetical feeble new interactions. It is the only branch of space research involved in fundamental physics. But politically and financially, the future is uncertain. Competition for funding and for flight opportunities will be stiff for the foreseeable future, both with other disciplines such as astrophysics, planetary science and the military, and within experimental gravitation itself. Difficult choices lie ahead. This paper reviews the current state of the field and attempts to peer into the future.

Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

PubMed

Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

2017-02-26

The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

2017-04-01

Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

PubMed

Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

2014-03-01

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of episodic thinking on altruism

PubMed Central

Yi, Richard; Pickover, Alison; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M.; Baker, Sydney; Landes, Reid D.

2016-01-01

Episodic future thinking, which refers to the use of prospective imagery to concretely imagine oneself in future scenarios, has been shown to reduce delay discounting (enhance self-control). A parallel approach, in which prospective imagery is used to concretely imagine other’s scenarios, may similarly reduce social discounting (i.e., enhance altruism). In study 1, participants engaged in episodic thinking about the self or others, in a repeated-measures design, while completing a social discounting task. Reductions in social discounting were observed as a function of episodic thinking about others, though an interaction with order was also observed. Using an independent-measures design in study 2, the effect of episodic thinking about others was replicated. Study 3 addressed a limitation of studies 1 and 2, the possibility that simply thinking about others decreased social discounting. Capitalizing on Construal Level Theory, which specifies that social distance and time in the future are both dimensions of a common psychological distance, we hypothesized that episodic future thinking should also decrease social discounting. Participants engaged in episodic future thinking or episodic present thinking, in a repeated-measures design, while completing a social discounting task. The pattern of results was similar to study 1, providing support for the notion that episodic thinking about psychologically distant outcomes (for others or in the future) reduces social discounting. Application of similar episodic thinking approaches may enhance altruism. PMID:27821875

ISS Training Best Practices and Lessons Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Dempsey, Donna L.

2017-01-01

Training our crew members for long duration exploration-class missions (LDEM) will have to be qualitatively and quantitatively different from current training practices. However, there is much to be learned from the extensive experience NASA has gained in training crew members for missions on board the International Space Station (ISS). Furthermore, the operational experience on board the ISS provides valuable feedback concerning training effectiveness. Keeping in mind the vast differences between current ISS crew training and training for LDEM, the needs of future crew members, and the demands of future missions, this ongoing study seeks to document current training practices and lessons learned. The goal of the study is to provide input to the design of future crew training that takes as much advantage as possible of what has already been learned and avoids as much as possible past inefficiencies. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. By researching established training principles, examining future needs, and by using current practices in spaceflight training as test beds, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs.

ISS Training Best Practices and Lessons Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dempsey, Donna L.; Barshi, Immanuel

2018-01-01

Training our crew members for long-duration Deep Space Transport (DST) missions will have to be qualitatively and quantitatively different from current training practices. However, there is much to be learned from the extensive experience NASA has gained in training crew members for missions on board the International Space Station (ISS). Furthermore, the operational experience on board the ISS provides valuable feedback concerning training effectiveness. Keeping in mind the vast differences between current ISS crew training and training for DST missions, the needs of future crew members, and the demands of future missions, this ongoing study seeks to document current training practices and lessons learned. The goal of the study is to provide input to the design of future crew training that takes as much advantage as possible of what has already been learned and avoids as much as possible past inefficiencies. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. By researching established training principles, examining future needs, and by using current practices in spaceflight training as test beds, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs.

Air pollution and Parkinson's disease - evidence and future directions.

PubMed

Palacios, Natalia

2017-12-20

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disease of unknown etiology that is thought to be caused by a complex combination of environmental and/or genetic factors. Air pollution exposure is linked to numerous adverse effects on human health, including brain inflammation and oxidative stress, processes that are believed to contribute to the development and progression of PD. This review provides an overview of recent advances in the epidemiology of air pollution and PD, including evidence of the effects of various pollutants (ozone, PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5-10, NOx, NO2, CO, traffic air pollution, second-hand smoking) on PD risk. Based on this evidence, promising opportunities for future research are outlined, including: (1) studies of smaller particle sizes that cross the blood-brain barrier, (2) studies of the effects of air pollution on PD mortality and/or progression; (3) studies of interactions of air pollution with gene environment and other environmental factors.

Characteristics of real futures trading networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junjie; Zhou, Shuigeng; Guan, Jihong

2011-01-01

Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks, in which nodes are trading participants, and two nodes have a common edge if the two corresponding investors appear simultaneously in at least one trading record as a purchaser and a seller, respectively. Then, we conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis on the constructed futures trading networks. Empirical results show that the futures trading networks exhibit features such as scale-free behavior with interesting odd-even-degree divergence in low-degree regions, small-world effect, hierarchical organization, power-law betweenness distribution, disassortative mixing, and shrinkage of both the average path length and the diameter as network size increases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that uses real data to study futures trading networks, and we argue that the research results can shed light on the nature of real futures business.

Study of the Effectiveness of OCR for Decentralized Data Capture and Conversion. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liston, David M.; And Others

The ERIC network conversion to an OCR (Optical Character Recognition) mode of data entry was studied to analyze the potential effectiveness of OCR data entry for future EPC/s (Editorial Processing Centers). Study results are also applicable to any other system involving decentralized bibliographic data capture and conversion functions. The report…

Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Van Aalst, Maarten; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whilst the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is lacking. Hence, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. In this study, we show that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We show that fatalities and losses as a share of exposed population and gross domestic product are decreasing with rising income. We also show that there is a tendency of convergence in vulnerability levels between low- and high-income countries. Based on these findings, we simulate future flood impacts per country using traditional assumptions of static vulnerability through time, but also using future assumptions on reduced vulnerability in the future. We show that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies, including a reduction of vulnerability. The study was carried out using the global flood risk model, GLOFRIS, combined with high-resolution time-series maps of hazard and exposure at the global scale. Based on: Jongman et al., 2015. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, doi:10.1073/pnas.1414439112.

Bayesian regression model for recurrent event data with event-varying covariate effects and event effect.

PubMed

Lin, Li-An; Luo, Sheng; Davis, Barry R

2018-01-01

In the course of hypertension, cardiovascular disease events (e.g., stroke, heart failure) occur frequently and recurrently. The scientific interest in such study may lie in the estimation of treatment effect while accounting for the correlation among event times. The correlation among recurrent event times come from two sources: subject-specific heterogeneity (e.g., varied lifestyles, genetic variations, and other unmeasurable effects) and event dependence (i.e., event incidences may change the risk of future recurrent events). Moreover, event incidences may change the disease progression so that there may exist event-varying covariate effects (the covariate effects may change after each event) and event effect (the effect of prior events on the future events). In this article, we propose a Bayesian regression model that not only accommodates correlation among recurrent events from both sources, but also explicitly characterizes the event-varying covariate effects and event effect. This model is especially useful in quantifying how the incidences of events change the effects of covariates and risk of future events. We compare the proposed model with several commonly used recurrent event models and apply our model to the motivating lipid-lowering trial (LLT) component of the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) (ALLHAT-LLT).

Bayesian regression model for recurrent event data with event-varying covariate effects and event effect

PubMed Central

Lin, Li-An; Luo, Sheng; Davis, Barry R.

2017-01-01

In the course of hypertension, cardiovascular disease events (e.g., stroke, heart failure) occur frequently and recurrently. The scientific interest in such study may lie in the estimation of treatment effect while accounting for the correlation among event times. The correlation among recurrent event times come from two sources: subject-specific heterogeneity (e.g., varied lifestyles, genetic variations, and other unmeasurable effects) and event dependence (i.e., event incidences may change the risk of future recurrent events). Moreover, event incidences may change the disease progression so that there may exist event-varying covariate effects (the covariate effects may change after each event) and event effect (the effect of prior events on the future events). In this article, we propose a Bayesian regression model that not only accommodates correlation among recurrent events from both sources, but also explicitly characterizes the event-varying covariate effects and event effect. This model is especially useful in quantifying how the incidences of events change the effects of covariates and risk of future events. We compare the proposed model with several commonly used recurrent event models and apply our model to the motivating lipid-lowering trial (LLT) component of the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) (ALLHAT-LLT). PMID:29755162

Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, S.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable in the future due to climate change coupled with rapid urbanization. Thus, protecting future groundwater resources under the impact of urbanization and climate change is necessary towards more sustainable groundwater resource development. This study is intended to shed lights on how water managers may plan for the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater quality. A new approach is presented in which the groundwater vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is employed as a constraint to urban expansion. An original form of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) and a revised LTM simulation are applied to model the urbanization. The results indicated that there would be a notable and uneven urban growth between 2010 and 2050. Future groundwater vulnerability is expected to shift significantly under future climate change scenarios. The results of the revised LTM project more urban expansion in the central regions of China, while those of the original LTM project urban expansion in throughout China, although the two projections have the same areas of expansion. The urban expansion simulated by the original LTM follows the historical trend under the drivers of socioeconomic, political and geographic factors. However, the revised LTM drives the urban expansion to the regions with relatively lower groundwater vulnerability, in contrast to the historical trend. This study demonstrates that the integration of LTM and future groundwater vulnerability in the urban planning can better protect the groundwater resource and promote more sustainable socioeconomic development. The methodology developed in this study provides water managers and city planners a useful groundwater management tool for mitigating the risks associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.

Neuropsychopharmacology of auditory hallucinations: insights from pharmacological functional MRI and perspectives for future research.

PubMed

Johnsen, Erik; Hugdahl, Kenneth; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Kroken, Rune A; Kompus, Kristiina

2013-01-01

Experiencing auditory verbal hallucinations is a prominent symptom in schizophrenia that also occurs in subjects at enhanced risk for psychosis and in the general population. Drug treatment of auditory hallucinations is challenging, because the current understanding is limited with respect to the neural mechanisms involved, as well as how CNS drugs, such as antipsychotics, influence the subjective experience and neurophysiology of hallucinations. In this article, the authors review studies of the effect of antipsychotic medication on brain activation as measured with functional MRI in patients with auditory verbal hallucinations. First, the authors examine the neural correlates of ongoing auditory hallucinations. Then, the authors critically discuss studies addressing the antipsychotic effect on the neural correlates of complex cognitive tasks. Current evidence suggests that blood oxygen level-dependant effects of antipsychotic drugs reflect specific, regional effects but studies on the neuropharmacology of auditory hallucinations are scarce. Future directions for pharmacological neuroimaging of auditory hallucinations are discussed.

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What is the role of combination drug therapy in the treatment of overactive bladder? ICI-RS 2014.

PubMed

Visco, Anthony G; Fraser, Matthew O; Newgreen, Donald; Oelke, Matthias; Cardozo, Linda

2016-02-01

The role of combination therapy using oral antimuscarinic medications for the treatment of overactive bladder was proposed at the 2014 International Consultation on Incontinence-Research Society in Bristol, UK to identify key factors to consider when making clinical decisions and to guide future research design. Combination therapy is justified if monotherapy is associated with suboptimal efficacy or bothersome side effects. Combination therapy has the potential to improve efficacy with fewer side effects than monotherapy. Two Phase 2 studies comparing combination therapy that included an antimuscarinic demonstrated improvement in mean voided volume, the primary outcome chosen, with some combinations showing improved micturition frequency and quality of life. The two studies found no evidence of an increased safety risk with combination therapy compared to monotherapy. Future studies should use clinically meaningful or patient reported outcomes such as incontinence episodes when comparing efficacy. If surrogate measures are used, a clear justification should be provided. Cost analyses should be planned for clinical research trials evaluating combination drug therapy. Combination therapy is reasonable when monotherapy has suboptimal efficacy or bothersome side effects. Future research studies evaluating combination therapy for urgency urinary incontinence should ideally(1) be performed as part of a randomized clinical trial,(2) evaluate non-responders to monotherapy,(3) evaluate combination therapy using medications with different mechanisms of action,(4) include clinically meaningful and patient reported outcomes when evaluating efficacy, and(5) include cost-effectiveness analyses to justify any increased cost by showing improvement in efficacy or reduction in side effects. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

How Effective Leaders Harness the Future.

PubMed

Souba, Wiley; Souba, Matthew

2018-02-01

Human beings are fundamentally future oriented. Most of our decisions and undertakings are for the sake of a future to which we are committed or obligated. This future orientation is essential to effective leadership in health care, especially during this time of significant reform, when people are at risk of becoming cynical and disengaged. Conventional thinking holds that our effectiveness as leaders is primarily a function of what we have learned in the past-our knowledge, expertise, and experience. In contrast, the emerging model contends that our effectiveness is also a function of how the future (outcome) of our leadership challenges "shows up" for us. If, despite daunting circumstances, we can "see" an aspired future ahead, we are more likely to commit and engage. Our story of the future becomes the "narrative frame" through which we see and tackle leadership challenges today. Because organizations are fundamentally networks of conversations, an organization's ability to create new language practices is tantamount to its ability to evolve. What makes the future compelling is the embodiment of our deepest convictions and ideals in our image of the future. Because health care reform has challenged the medical profession along the entire spectrum of its traditional values and roles, working toward a unifying vision of the future has been difficult. To enroll others in creating a better future, effective leaders must underscore the purpose and importance of their work and motivate them with inspiring stories.

Intended location of future career practice among graduating medical students: perspective from social cognitive career theory in Nepal.

PubMed

Sapkota, B P; Amatya, A

2013-09-01

Medical workforce shortages and mal-distributions world-wide make understanding how, where and what our future doctors wish to practice is increasingly important. Understanding of factors such as available infrastructure, provision of incentives and many others influences the decisions of doctors to leave or to stay. Therefore the strategies effective for retention, is imperative in conducting the study based on a sound theoretical framework in predicting future medical workforce needs. The study used the theoretical framework of Social Cognitive Career Theory to identify the predictors on future practice location. The study was cross-sectional descriptive in design targeting the Nepalese medical students in the final year and doing internships in Nepal. Anonymous self administered questionnaire was distributed among 480 students but 393 students were involved due to non response and incompleteness. Findings of the study were presented in frequency tables for univariate descriptive analysis and bivariate findings were presented by cross tabulation. About two thirds 259 (65.9%) of the participants had chosen within country location for future practice. Among those who had chosen within country choice, about an equal percentage of the respondents had chosen rural 131 (50.8%) and urban 128 (49.2%) location. Among those who had chosen within country for future practice location, less than one fifth of the participants had chosen private sector for future practice. Majority of the medical graduates wish to practice within country location. Most of which chose public sector for future practice. None of the SCCT construct had any significant association within country location.

Self-Determination and Personal Identity in University Students: The Mediating Role of Future Orientation.

PubMed

Zhou, Mingming; Kam, Chester Chun Seng

2018-05-17

In this study, we sought to extend the research on self-determination, future orientation, and personal identity construction by integrating the theories on self-determination and future orientation to provide a conceptual framework for understanding the relations between personal identity and the following individual characteristics: Hope, optimism, awareness of self, and perceived choice. 191 university students in China responded surveys in hardcopies on an individual basis. Our SEM results revealed that proximal future orientation influenced the mechanisms through which distal psychological traits affected identity construction. Specifically, hope mediated the effects of self-awareness on the participants' personal identity ratings (b = .45, p < .05). Although optimism was related to both awareness of self and perceived choice, it was not significantly related to personal identity. This study suggested an extended framework through which we could understand how the interaction between future orientation and self-determination can predict personal identity. The findings have significant implications for interventions in educational settings.

Future Earth, Global Science and Regional Programs: Building regional integrated science capacities in a global science organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewksbury, J.

2016-12-01

Future Earth has emerged from the more than 30-year history of Global Change Research Programs, including IGBP, DIVERSITAS and IHDP. These programs supported interdisciplinary science in service of societies around the world. Now, their focus on building a greater understanding of changing Earth systems and their couplings with society has passed to Future Earth - with an important addition: Future Earth was also established to focus global change efforts around key societal challenges. The implications for the structure of Future Earth are large. Many challenges within topics, such as the water, energy, food nexus or the future of cities, are manifested within local, national, and regional contexts. How should we organize globally to most effectively confront these multi-scale challenges? The solution proposed in the framing of Future Earth was the formation of regional as well as national committees, as well as the formation of regional centers and offices. Regional Committees serve to both advocate for Future Earth in their regions and to advocate for regional interests in the global Future Earth platform, while regional Centers and offices are built into the Future Earth secretariat to perform a parallel regional implementation function. Implementation has not been easy, and the process has placed regionally-focused projects in an awkward place. Programs such as the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the South/Southeast Asia Research Initiative (SARI) represent some of the best global change communities in the world, but by design, their focus is regional. The effective integration of these communities into the Future Earth architecture will be critical, and this integration will require the formation of strong regional committees and regional centers.

Extensive Reading in EFL Classroom at Secondary Schools in Bangladesh: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haider, Md. Zulfeqar; Akhter, Elina

2012-01-01

Extensive reading is being practiced in many EFL and ESL classrooms as an effective means for developing learners' reading as well as other related skills. This paper is based on a small-scale study that explores the current practices and future possibilities of using extensive reading in the EFL classrooms at the junior secondary schools in…

Exploring the Effects of Changes in Future Time Perspective and Perceived Instrumentality on Graded Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay

2009-01-01

Introduction: This study aimed to explore the possible changes in the Future Time Perspective (FTP) and Perceived Instrumentality (PI) over time as long as one academic semester, as well as to explore whether those changes in FTP and PI explained students' Graded Performance (GP) with regard to a specific course; educational psychology. Method: A…

The Relations of Stressful Events and Nonacademic Future Expectations in African American Adolescents: Gender Differences in Parental Monitoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Michael; Mars, Dustin E.; Burns, Lateela J.

2012-01-01

Urban African American high school students (N = 206) completed a study to examine gender differences in parental monitoring and the effect on the relationship between exposure to stressful life events and nonacademic future expectations. Participant's ages range from 13 to 18 (M = 15.78, SD = 1.19). Participants reported high exposure to…

Transgenerational deleterious effects of ocean acidification on the reproductive success of a keystone crustacean (Gammarus locusta).

PubMed

Borges, Francisco O; Figueiredo, Cátia; Sampaio, Eduardo; Rosa, Rui; Grilo, Tiago F

2018-07-01

Ocean acidification (OA) poses a global threat to marine biodiversity. Notwithstanding, marine organisms may maintain their performance under future OA conditions, either through acclimation or evolutionary adaptation. Surprisingly, the transgenerational effects of high CO 2 exposure in crustaceans are still poorly understood. For the first time, the present study investigated the transgenerational effect of OA, from hatching to maturity, of a key amphipod species (Gammarus locusta). Negative transgenerational effects were observed on survival of the acidified lineage, resulting in significant declines (10-15%) compared to the control groups in each generation. Mate-guarding duration was also significantly reduced under high CO 2 and this effect was not alleviated by transgenerational acclimation, indicating that precopulatory behaviours can be disturbed under a future high CO 2 scenario. Although OA may initially stimulate female investment, transgenerational exposure led to a general decline in egg number and fecundity. Overall, the present findings suggest a potential fitness reduction of natural populations of G. locusta in a future high CO 2 ocean, emphasizing the need of management tools towards species' sustainability. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geographic Effects on Intergenerational Income Mobility

PubMed Central

Rothwell, Jonathan; Massey, Douglas S.

2016-01-01

The notion that where one grows up affects future living standards is increasingly well established in social science. Yet research on intergenerational economic mobility often ignores the regional and neighborhood context of childhood, especially local purchasing power. We hypothesize that unexplained variation in intergenerational mobility is partly attributable to regional and neighborhood conditions—most notably access to high quality schools. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and other data, we find that neighborhood income has roughly half the effect on future earnings as parental income and roughly the same effect as shared sibling characteristics. Growing up in an economically segregated metropolitan area also has a large negative effect on future earnings, though somewhat smaller than the neighborhood effect. We estimate that lifetime household income would be $500,000 dollars higher if people born into a bottom quartile neighborhood would have been raised in a top quartile neighborhood. These results are robust to considerations of regional purchasing power and migration between metro areas. Finally, we replicate the results for economic segregation at the metropolitan level using aggregated metropolitan level statistics of intergenerational income elasticities based on millions of IRS records. PMID:27440944

Exploratory studies to decide whether and how to proceed with full-scale evaluations of public health interventions: a systematic review of guidance.

PubMed

Hallingberg, Britt; Turley, Ruth; Segrott, Jeremy; Wight, Daniel; Craig, Peter; Moore, Laurence; Murphy, Simon; Robling, Michael; Simpson, Sharon Anne; Moore, Graham

2018-01-01

Evaluations of complex interventions in public health are frequently undermined by problems that can be identified before the effectiveness study stage. Exploratory studies, often termed pilot and feasibility studies, are a key step in assessing the feasibility and value of progressing to an effectiveness study. Such studies can provide vital information to support more robust evaluations, thereby reducing costs and minimising potential harms of the intervention. This systematic review forms the first phase of a wider project to address the need for stand-alone guidance for public health researchers on designing and conducting exploratory studies. The review objectives were to identify and examine existing recommendations concerning when such studies should be undertaken, questions they should answer, suitable methods, criteria for deciding whether to progress to an effectiveness study and appropriate reporting. We searched for published and unpublished guidance reported between January 2000 and November 2016 via bibliographic databases, websites, citation tracking and expert recommendations. Included papers were thematically synthesized. The search retrieved 4095 unique records. Thirty papers were included, representing 25 unique sources of guidance/recommendations. Eight themes were identified: pre-requisites for conducting an exploratory study, nomenclature, guidance for intervention assessment, guidance surrounding any future evaluation study design, flexible versus fixed design, progression criteria to a future evaluation study, stakeholder involvement and reporting of exploratory studies. Exploratory studies were described as being concerned with the intervention content, the future evaluation design or both. However, the nomenclature and endorsed methods underpinning these aims were inconsistent across papers. There was little guidance on what should precede or follow an exploratory study and decision-making surrounding this. Existing recommendations are inconsistent concerning the aims, designs and conduct of exploratory studies, and guidance is lacking on the evidence needed to inform when to proceed to an effectiveness study. PROSPERO 2016, CRD42016047843.

Individual Differences in the Effects of Retrieval from Long-Term Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brewer, Gene A.; Unsworth, Nash

2012-01-01

The current study examined individual differences in the effects of retrieval from long-term memory (i.e., the testing effect). The effects of retrieving from memory make tested information more accessible for future retrieval attempts. Despite the broad applied ramifications of such a potent memorization technique there is a paucity of research…

The impact of napping on memory for future-relevant stimuli: Prioritization among multiple salience cues.

PubMed

Bennion, Kelly A; Payne, Jessica D; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

2016-06-01

Prior research has demonstrated that sleep enhances memory for future-relevant information, including memory for information that is salient due to emotion, reward, or knowledge of a later memory test. Although sleep has been shown to prioritize information with any of these characteristics, the present study investigates the novel question of how sleep prioritizes information when multiple salience cues exist. Participants encoded scenes that were future-relevant based on emotion (emotional vs. neutral), reward (rewarded vs. unrewarded), and instructed learning (intentionally vs. incidentally encoded), preceding a delay consisting of a nap, an equivalent time period spent awake, or a nap followed by wakefulness (to control for effects of interference). Recognition testing revealed that when multiple dimensions of future relevance co-occur, sleep prioritizes top-down, goal-directed cues (instructed learning, and to a lesser degree, reward) over bottom-up, stimulus-driven characteristics (emotion). Further, results showed that these factors interact; the effect of a nap on intentionally encoded information was especially strong for neutral (relative to emotional) information, suggesting that once one cue for future relevance is present, there are diminishing returns with additional cues. Sleep may binarize information based on whether it is future-relevant or not, preferentially consolidating memory for the former category. Potential neural mechanisms underlying these selective effects and the implications of this research for educational and vocational domains are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Preferential Inspection of Recent Real-World Events Over Future Events: Evidence from Eye Tracking during Spoken Sentence Comprehension

PubMed Central

Knoeferle, Pia; Carminati, Maria Nella; Abashidze, Dato; Essig, Kai

2011-01-01

Eye-tracking findings suggest people prefer to ground their spoken language comprehension by focusing on recently seen events more than anticipating future events: When the verb in NP1-VERB-ADV-NP2 sentences was referentially ambiguous between a recently depicted and an equally plausible future clipart action, listeners fixated the target of the recent action more often at the verb than the object that hadn’t yet been acted upon. We examined whether this inspection preference generalizes to real-world events, and whether it is (vs. isn’t) modulated by how often people see recent and future events acted out. In a first eye-tracking study, the experimenter performed an action (e.g., sugaring pancakes), and then a spoken sentence either referred to that action or to an equally plausible future action (e.g., sugaring strawberries). At the verb, people more often inspected the pancakes (the recent target) than the strawberries (the future target), thus replicating the recent-event preference with these real-world actions. Adverb tense, indicating a future versus past event, had no effect on participants’ visual attention. In a second study we increased the frequency of future actions such that participants saw 50/50 future and recent actions. During the verb people mostly inspected the recent action target, but subsequently they began to rely on tense, and anticipated the future target more often for future than past tense adverbs. A corpus study showed that the verbs and adverbs indicating past versus future actions were equally frequent, suggesting long-term frequency biases did not cause the recent-event preference. Thus, (a) recent real-world actions can rapidly influence comprehension (as indexed by eye gaze to objects), and (b) people prefer to first inspect a recent action target (vs. an object that will soon be acted upon), even when past and future actions occur with equal frequency. A simple frequency-of-experience account cannot accommodate these findings. PMID:22207858

[A self-improvement and participatory career development education program involving internships and volunteer training experience for pharmacy students: results verified in a follow-up survey three years after participation].

PubMed

Kurio, Wasako; Konishi, Motomi; Okuno, Tomofumi; Nakao, Teruyuki; Kimura, Tomoki; Tsuji, Takumi; Yamamuro, Akiko; Yamamoto, Yumi; Nishikawa, Tomoe; Yanada, Kazuo; Yasuhara, Tomohisa; Kohno, Takeyuki; Ogita, Kiyokazu; Sone, Tomomichi

2014-01-01

The Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Setsunan University, offers the Self-improvement and Participatory Career Development Education Program: Internship and Volunteer Training Experience for Pharmacy Students to third-year students. We previously reported that the training experience was effective in cultivating important attributes among students, such as a willingness to learn the aims of pharmacists, an awareness of their own role as healthcare workers, and a desire to reflect on their future careers and lives. A follow-up survey of the participants was carried out three years after the training experience. The questionnaire verified that the training experience affected attendance at subsequent lectures and course determination after graduation. We confirmed the relationship between the participants' degree of satisfaction with the training experience and increased motivation for attending subsequent lectures. Through the training experience, participants discovered future targets and subjects of study. In addition, they became more interested in subsequent classroom lessons and their future. The greater the participants' degree of satisfaction with their training experience, the more interest they took in practical training and future courses. The present study clarified that the training experience was effective in cultivating important attributes such as a willingness to learn and an interest in future courses. Moreover, the training positively affected the course determination after graduation.

Implication for Media Convergence on News Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gumus, Agah; Ozad, Bahire

2011-01-01

Over the last decade, comparisons of the effects of the traditional news media and the Internet have been made in relation to comprehension and remembering. This study aims at assessing the effects of single and compound presentational elements, and making predictions for the future. One of the two main aims of this study is to measure…

The Biological Activities of Oleocanthal from a Molecular Perspective.

PubMed

Pang, Kok-Lun; Chin, Kok-Yong

2018-05-06

Oleocanthal is a minor constituent of olive oil with strong anti-inflammatory activities. Since the pathogenesis of many chronic diseases involves inflammatory and oxidative components, oleocanthal is a promising agent to prevent these conditions. This review aimed to summarise the current beneficial health effects of oleocanthal and the molecular basis of its biological actions. The anti-inflammatory, antioxidative, antimicrobial, anticancer and neuroprotective activities of oleocanthal have been examined by previous studies. Of these, studies on the anticancer effects have been the most extensive. Oleocanthal was reported to suppress melanoma, breast, liver, and colon cancer cells. Neurological studies focused on the effects of oleocanthal against Alzheimer’s disease. Oleocanthal improved clearance of the amyloid beta protein from neurons and reduced the inflammation of astrocytes. Despite the positive results, validation of the biological effects of oleocanthal in animal disease models is limited and should be emphasized in the future. As a conclusion, oleocanthal may act together with other bioactive compounds in olive oil to achieve its therapeutic potential. The use of oleocanthal alone as a single therapeutic measure awaits validation from future studies.

The Biological Activities of Oleocanthal from a Molecular Perspective

PubMed Central

Pang, Kok-Lun; Chin, Kok-Yong

2018-01-01

Oleocanthal is a minor constituent of olive oil with strong anti-inflammatory activities. Since the pathogenesis of many chronic diseases involves inflammatory and oxidative components, oleocanthal is a promising agent to prevent these conditions. This review aimed to summarise the current beneficial health effects of oleocanthal and the molecular basis of its biological actions. The anti-inflammatory, antioxidative, antimicrobial, anticancer and neuroprotective activities of oleocanthal have been examined by previous studies. Of these, studies on the anticancer effects have been the most extensive. Oleocanthal was reported to suppress melanoma, breast, liver, and colon cancer cells. Neurological studies focused on the effects of oleocanthal against Alzheimer’s disease. Oleocanthal improved clearance of the amyloid beta protein from neurons and reduced the inflammation of astrocytes. Despite the positive results, validation of the biological effects of oleocanthal in animal disease models is limited and should be emphasized in the future. As a conclusion, oleocanthal may act together with other bioactive compounds in olive oil to achieve its therapeutic potential. The use of oleocanthal alone as a single therapeutic measure awaits validation from future studies. PMID:29734791

Automation's Effect on Library Personnel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dakshinamurti, Ganga

1985-01-01

Reports on survey studying the human-machine interface in Canadian university, public, and special libraries. Highlights include position category and educational background of 118 participants, participants' feelings toward automation, physical effects of automation, diffusion in decision making, interpersonal communication, future trends,…

The Effect of Prosocial Cartoons on Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forge, Karen L. S.; Phemister, Sherri

1987-01-01

Study examined the effect of prosocial cartoons on 40 preschool children. Supported hypothesis that prosocial program models would elicit more prosocial behavior than would neutral program models. Implications for future research on prosocial children's programming were discussed. (Author/RWB)

Estimating Damage Cost of Net Primary Production due to Climate Change and Ozone(O3) Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Park, C.; Sung, S.; Kim, H. G.; Mo, Y.; Kim, S.; Kil, S.

2016-12-01

Forests are absorbing and storing carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis. The forests are not only preventing global warming but also influencing temperature, precipitation and humidity (Costanza et al., 1997; de Groot et al., 2002). Also the forests are recognized as a carbon sink internationally (van Kooten, 2009). The Korean Government supports the economic activity such as carbon offset projects in accordance with 'ACT ON THE MANAGEMENT AND IMPROVEMENT OF CARBON SINK' Article27 (Korea Forest Service, 2013) and aims to make a policy which improves the CO2 capacity of forest for Paris Agreement discussed in UNFCCC COP21, December 2015 (Korea Forest Service, 2015). However, the social-economic activities make to increase aerosols as well as greenhouse gases significantly since the industrial revolution, as a result, the chemical composition of the atmosphere has changed significantly. According to the resent studies, not only CO2 but atmospheric chemistries such as ozone (O3), aerosol and black carbon can be an important factor causing climate change (Hansen et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007). In the past, acid rain affected on forest, but in these days, O3, nitrogen oxide (NOX) and sulfur oxide (SOX) are the most threatening factors on forest ecosystem (Lee et al, 2011). In particular, O3accounts for most of the photochemical products and causes a direct significant impact or damage on the plant because of high toxicity (Han et al., 2006). The research questions of this study are "How does O3 effects on forest productivity in the present and future? " What is the damage cost by the O3 effect in the future? In this study, we developed a statistical model using the parameters which effect on the forest productivity. We estimated the forest productivity using on the derived model in the present and future on a SSP scenarios. Lastly, we evaluated the economic effect or damage cost of O3effect by introducing the concept of climate insurance. The average forest productivity, net primary productivity (NPP), in Korea is about 622 gC/m2/yr in the results. And the result shows that NPP decreases about 2.3% by O3 negative effect. The NPP in the future also decreases about 1-2% and the negative effect of O3 is similar. Finally, damage cost by O3 in the future is bigger than damage by climate change.

Low level laser therapy in the treatment of oral mucositis in cancer patients: systematic review of literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Sabbagh, Rula Fawzi; Selting, Wayne J.

2016-03-01

Oral mucositis is a debilitating and dose limiting side effect of oncotherapy in cancer patients. Low Level Laser Therapy (LLLT) is a promising new intervention for the treatment of oral mucositis. Aims and objectives: 1. Perform a systematic review of available literature on the therapeutic effect of LLLT on established oral mucositis. 2. Formulate recommendations for future studies based on results of review. Methods: Electronic search oflow level laser therapy in the treatment of oral mucositis was conducted and eligible studies reviewed. Results: Four studies met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. A total of 109 patients were included, 59 of which received LLLT as a therapeutic measure. An overall success rate of 81.4% success rate was reported in regard to OM. Conclusion: The review demonstrated the positive therapeutic effect of LLLT on oral mucositis. However, the need for future studies with standardized reporting of parameters and methods is needed to increase the level of evidence of this intervention.

The Effect of a Learner Autonomy Training on the Study Habits of the First-Year ELT Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merç, Ali

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the possible effects of a learner autonomy training on the study habits of first-year university students as future EFL teachers. To this end, a questionnaire was used as the research instrument to elicit the study habits of the students. The questionnaire was administered to 122 students enrolled in a…

The effect of inquiry-based learning experiences on adolescents' science-related career aspiration in the Finnish context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Jingoo; Keinonen, Tuula

2017-08-01

Much research has been conducted to investigate the effects of inquiry-based learning on students' attitude towards science and future involvement in the science field, but few of them conducted in-depth studies including young learners' socio-cognitive background to explore mechanisms which explain how inquiry experiences influence on career choices. Hence, the aim of this study was to investigate in what ways and to what extent the inquiry learning experiences in school science affect students' future career orientation in the context of socio-cognitive mechanisms based on socio-cognitive career theory(SCCT). For the purpose, Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2015 data were used focusing on science literacy, and the sample of Finnish 15-year-old students (N = 5782) was analysed by structural equation modelling with the hypothesised Inquiry-SCCT model. The results of the study showed that inquiry learning experiences were indicated as a positive predictor for the students' career aspiration, and most of its effects were mediated by outcome expectations. Indeed, although self-efficacy and interest in learning science indicated positive correlations with future aspiration, outcome expectation presented the highest correlation with the science-related career. Gender differences were found in the model, but girls indicated higher outcome expectation and career aspiration than boys in Finland.

Child Disaster Mental Health Interventions: Therapy Components

PubMed Central

Pfefferbaum, Betty; Sweeton, Jennifer L.; Nitiéma, Pascal; Noffsinger, Mary A.; Varma, Vandana; Nelson, Summer D.; Newman, Elana

2015-01-01

Children face innumerable challenges following exposure to disasters. To address trauma sequelae, researchers and clinicians have developed a variety of mental health interventions. While the overall effectiveness of multiple interventions has been examined, few studies have focused on the individual components of these interventions. As a preliminary step to advancing intervention development and research, this literature review identifies and describes nine common components that comprise child disaster mental health interventions. This review concluded that future research should clearly define the constituent components included in available interventions. This will require that future studies dismantle interventions to examine the effectiveness of specific components and identify common therapeutic elements. Issues related to populations studied (eg, disaster exposure, demographic and cultural influences) and to intervention delivery (eg, timing and optimal sequencing of components) also warrant attention. PMID:25225954

The Mechanisms of Manual Therapy in the Treatment of Musculoskeletal Pain: A Comprehensive Model

PubMed Central

Bialosky, Joel E; Bishop, Mark D; Price, Don D; Robinson, Michael E; George, Steven Z

2009-01-01

Prior studies suggest manual therapy (MT) as effective in the treatment of musculoskeletal pain; however, the mechanisms through which MT exerts its effects are not established. In this paper we present a comprehensive model to direct future studies in MT. This model provides visualization of potential individual mechanisms of MT that the current literature suggests as pertinent and provides a framework for the consideration of the potential interaction between these individual mechanisms. Specifically, this model suggests that a mechanical force from MT initiates a cascade of neurophysiological responses from the peripheral and central nervous system which are then responsible for the clinical outcomes. This model provides clear direction so that future studies may provide appropriate methodology to account for multiple potential pertinent mechanisms. PMID:19027342

Proceedings of the Acquisition Research Symposium: Acquisition for the Future, Imagination, Innovation, and Implementation, 1991. Volume 2.

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

Estimates, in support force structure, and identifying of cost- effectiveness studies , other system characteristics. system analysis efforts, and trade- A...mission effectiveness studies , used to justify technology evaluate the results in terms funding. These technology of benefit vs. cost, and marketers often...the formal studies serve on mission effectiveness and to rubber stamp these prede- ultimately, benefit vs. cost termined solutions. In an 101 attempt to

Uncovering the most effective active ingredients of antismoking public service announcements: the role of actor and message characteristics.

PubMed

Shadel, William G; Fryer, Craig S; Tharp-Taylor, Shannah

2009-05-01

This study examined whether the appeal of actors (i.e., their likeability and attractiveness) used in antismoking public service announcements (PSAs) interacts with adolescents' risk of future smoking to predict adolescents' smoking resistance self-efficacy and whether the antismoking messages in the PSAs further moderate this relationship. We used a 2 (future smoking risk: low, high) x 2 (actor appeal: low, high) x 3 (PSA antismoking message: tobacco industry manipulation, short-term smoking effects, long-term smoking effects) study design. A diverse sample of 110 adolescents (aged 11-17 years), with varying levels of experience with smoking, rated their smoking resistance self-efficacy after viewing each of the PSAs in each design cell. Overall, PSAs that used long-term smoking effects messages were associated with the strongest smoking resistance self-efficacy, followed in turn by PSAs that used short-term smoking effects messages and by tobacco industry manipulation messages. We found a significant interaction of actor appeal and PSA antismoking message. The use of more appealing actors was associated with stronger smoking resistance self-efficacy only in long-term smoking effects PSAs. The use of less appealing actors was associated with stronger smoking resistance self-efficacy for tobacco industry manipulation PSAs and short-term smoking effects PSAs. Future smoking risk did not moderate any of these findings. Antismoking PSAs that emphasize long-term smoking effects are most strongly associated with increased smoking resistance self-efficacy. The effect of these PSAs can be strengthened by using actors whom adolescents perceive to be appealing.

Uncovering the most effective active ingredients of antismoking public service announcements: The role of actor and message characteristics

PubMed Central

Fryer, Craig S.; Tharp-Taylor, Shannah

2009-01-01

Introduction: This study examined whether the appeal of actors (i.e., their likeability and attractiveness) used in antismoking public service announcements (PSAs) interacts with adolescents’ risk of future smoking to predict adolescents’ smoking resistance self-efficacy and whether the antismoking messages in the PSAs further moderate this relationship. Methods: We used a 2 (future smoking risk: low, high) × 2 (actor appeal: low, high) × 3 (PSA antismoking message: tobacco industry manipulation, short-term smoking effects, long-term smoking effects) study design. A diverse sample of 110 adolescents (aged 11–17 years), with varying levels of experience with smoking, rated their smoking resistance self-efficacy after viewing each of the PSAs in each design cell. Results: Overall, PSAs that used long-term smoking effects messages were associated with the strongest smoking resistance self-efficacy, followed in turn by PSAs that used short-term smoking effects messages and by tobacco industry manipulation messages. We found a significant interaction of actor appeal and PSA antismoking message. The use of more appealing actors was associated with stronger smoking resistance self-efficacy only in long-term smoking effects PSAs. The use of less appealing actors was associated with stronger smoking resistance self-efficacy for tobacco industry manipulation PSAs and short-term smoking effects PSAs. Future smoking risk did not moderate any of these findings. Discussion: Antismoking PSAs that emphasize long-term smoking effects are most strongly associated with increased smoking resistance self-efficacy. The effect of these PSAs can be strengthened by using actors whom adolescents perceive to be appealing. PMID:19372574

The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Lowe, J A; Gregory, J M

2005-06-15

Coastal flooding is often caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. In this study, improved physical models have been used to simulate the climate system and storm surges, and to predict the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on the surges. In agreement with previous studies, this work indicates that the changes in atmospheric storminess and the higher time-average sea-level predicted for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to changes in the height of water levels measured relative to the present day tide. However, the details of these projections differ somewhat from earlier assessments. Uncertainty in projections of future extreme water levels arise from uncertainty in the amount and timing of future greenhouse gas emissions, uncertainty in the physical models used to simulate the climate system and from the natural variability of the system. The total uncertainty has not yet been reliably quantified and achieving this should be a priority for future research.

A systematic review of cost-effectiveness modeling of pharmaceutical therapies in neuropathic pain: variation in practice, key challenges, and recommendations for the future.

PubMed

Critchlow, Simone; Hirst, Matthew; Akehurst, Ron; Phillips, Ceri; Philips, Zoe; Sullivan, Will; Dunlop, Will C N

2017-02-01

Complexities in the neuropathic-pain care pathway make the condition difficult to manage and difficult to capture in cost-effectiveness models. The aim of this study is to understand, through a systematic review of previous cost-effectiveness studies, some of the key strengths and limitations in data and modeling practices in neuropathic pain. Thus, the aim is to guide future research and practice to improve resource allocation decisions and encourage continued investment to find novel and effective treatments for patients with neuropathic pain. The search strategy was designed to identify peer-reviewed cost-effectiveness evaluations of non-surgical, pharmaceutical therapies for neuropathic pain published since January 2000, accessing five key databases. All identified publications were reviewed and screened according to pre-defined eligibility criteria. Data extraction was designed to reflect key data challenges and approaches to modeling in neuropathic pain and based on published guidelines. The search strategy identified 20 cost-effectiveness analyses meeting the inclusion criteria, of which 14 had original model structures. Cost-effectiveness modeling in neuropathic pain is established and increasing across multiple jurisdictions; however, amongst these studies, there is substantial variation in modeling approach, and there are common limitations. Capturing the effect of treatments upon health outcomes, particularly health-related quality-of-life, is challenging, and the health effects of multiple lines of ineffective treatment, common for patients with neuropathic pain, have not been consistently or robustly modeled. To improve future economic modeling in neuropathic pain, further research is suggested into the effect of multiple lines of treatment and treatment failure upon patient outcomes and subsequent treatment effectiveness; the impact of treatment-emergent adverse events upon patient outcomes; and consistent and appropriate pain measures to inform models. The authors further encourage transparent reporting of inputs used to inform cost-effectiveness models, with robust, comprehensive and clear uncertainty analysis and, where feasible, open-source modeling is encouraged.

Physiological effects of oral glucosamine on joint health: current status and consensus on future research priorities

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper was to provide an overview of the current knowledge and understanding of the potential beneficial physiological effects of glucosamine (GlcN) on joint health. The objective was to reach a consensus on four critical questions and to provide recommendations for future research priorities. To this end, nine scientists from Europe and the United States were selected according to their expertise in this particular field and were invited to participate in the Hohenheim conference held in August 2011. Each expert was asked to address a question that had previously been posed by the chairman of the conference. Based on a systematic review of the literature and the collection of recent data, the experts documented the effects of GlcN on cartilage ageing, metabolic/kinetic and maintenance of joint health as well as reduction of risk of OA development. After extensive debate and discussion the expert panel addressed each question and a general consensus statement was developed, agreeing on the current state-of-the-art and future areas for basic and clinical studies. This paper summarizes the available evidence for beneficial effects of GlcN on joint health and proposes new insight into the design of future clinical trials aimed at identifying beneficial physiological effect of GlcN on joint tissues. PMID:23531101

Future prospects of health management systems using cellular phones.

PubMed

Kim, Hun-Sung; Hwang, Yunji; Lee, Jae-Ho; Oh, Hye Young; Kim, Yi-Jun; Kwon, Hyeon Yoon; Kang, Hyoseung; Kim, Hyunah; Park, Rae Woong; Kim, Ju Han

2014-06-01

Cellular phones enable communication between healthcare providers and patients for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases. However, few studies have examined the user-friendliness or effectiveness of cellular phone-based medical informatics (CPBMI) for healthcare. This study investigated the use of CPBMI to identify its current status within the medical field, advantages and disadvantages, practicability, clinical effectiveness, costs, and cost-saving potential. CPBMI was validated in terms of practicality and provision of medical benefits. It is critical to use CPBMI in accordance with the different features of each disease and condition. Use of CPBMI is expected to be especially useful for patients with chronic disease. We discussed the current status of the clinical use, benefits, and risks of CPBMI. CPBMI and information technology-based health management tools are anticipated to become useful and effective components of healthcare management in the future.

Parents’ Participation in a Work-Based Anti-Poverty Program Can Enhance Their Children's Future Orientation: Understanding Pathways of Influence

PubMed Central

Purtell, Kelly M.; McLoyd, Vonnie C.

2012-01-01

Planning and preparing for life after high school is a central developmental task of American adolescents, and may be even more critical for low-income youth who are less likely to attend a four year college. This study investigates factors that led to the effects of the New Hope Project, a work-based, anti-poverty program directed at parents on youths’ career-related thoughts and planning. The New Hope project was implemented in Milwaukee, WI, during the mid-1990s. 745 families participated (52% male children; 56% African American; 30% Latino, and 15% White non-Hispanic) and half were randomly selected to receive New Hope benefits, which included earnings supplements, job search assistance, and child and health care subsidies for three years. Importantly, effects on youths’ future orientation were found eight years after the program began (five years after benefits ended). The present study investigates what factors sustained these positive impacts over time. Results indicate that parental perceptions of reading performance mediate the effects of New Hope on youths’ cynicism about work. Additionally, parental perceptions of reading performance and youths’ educational expectations mediate the effects of New Hope on boys’ pessimism about future employment. These findings highlight the importance of youths’ educational development to their career-related thoughts and planning. PMID:22878938

Effects of occupational future time perspective on managing stressful work situations.

PubMed

Ho, Henry C Y; Yeung, Dannii Y

2016-08-01

According to the socioemotional selectivity theory (SST; Carstensen, 2006), older adults perceive their future time as increasingly limited, which motivates them to focus more on emotional goals and prefer passive emotion-focused strategies. This study aims to investigate the effect of occupational future time perspective (OFTP) on the use of problem-solving strategies in stressful work situations and to examine the effectiveness of these strategies on psychological well-being. A sample of 199 Chinese clerical workers responded to a structured questionnaire on problem-solving strategy use in relation to hypothetical work scenarios. Results revealed that relative to those with limited OFTP, workers with expansive OFTP preferred problem-focused and proactive strategies in both low- and high-emotionally salient scenarios. Workers with limited OFTP consistently preferred passive strategies irrespective of emotional salience. OFTP moderated the effect of problem-focused strategies on psychological distress. In particular, there was a significant negative relationship between problem-focused strategies and psychological distress among workers with expansive OFTP, but such pattern of relationship was not observed among workers with limited OFTP. Findings of this study inform the training strategies employed by practitioners to fit the developmental goals of workers in order to maximise their strengths at work. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

Parents' participation in a work-based anti-poverty program can enhance their children's future orientation: understanding pathways of influence.

PubMed

Purtell, Kelly M; McLoyd, Vonnie C

2013-06-01

Planning and preparing for life after high school is a central developmental task of American adolescents, and may be even more critical for low-income youth who are less likely to attend a four year college. This study investigates factors that led to the effects of the New Hope Project, a work-based, anti-poverty program directed at parents on youths' career-related thoughts and planning. The New Hope project was implemented in Milwaukee, WI, during the mid-1990s. 745 families participated (52% male children; 56% African American; 30% Latino, and 15% White non-Hispanic) and half were randomly selected to receive New Hope benefits, which included earnings supplements, job search assistance, and child and health care subsidies for 3 years. Importantly, effects on youths' future orientation were found 8 years after the program began (5 years after benefits ended). The present study investigates what factors sustained these positive impacts over time. Results indicate that parental perceptions of reading performance mediate the effects of New Hope on youths' cynicism about work. Additionally, parental perceptions of reading performance and youths' educational expectations mediate the effects of New Hope on boys' pessimism about future employment. These findings highlight the importance of youths' educational development to their career-related thoughts and planning.

Speech Output Technologies in Interventions for Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Scoping Review.

PubMed

Schlosser, Ralf W; Koul, Rajinder K

2015-01-01

The purpose of this scoping review was to (a) map the research evidence on the effectiveness of augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) interventions using speech output technologies (e.g., speech-generating devices, mobile technologies with AAC-specific applications, talking word processors) for individuals with autism spectrum disorders, (b) identify gaps in the existing literature, and (c) posit directions for future research. Outcomes related to speech, language, and communication were considered. A total of 48 studies (47 single case experimental designs and 1 randomized control trial) involving 187 individuals were included. Results were reviewed in terms of three study groupings: (a) studies that evaluated the effectiveness of treatment packages involving speech output, (b) studies comparing one treatment package with speech output to other AAC modalities, and (c) studies comparing the presence with the absence of speech output. The state of the evidence base is discussed and several directions for future research are posited.

Effects of engine emissions from high-speed civil transport aircraft: A two-dimensional modeling study, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Sze, Nein Dak; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Heisey, Curtis

1991-01-01

The AER two-dimensional chemistry-transport model is used to study the effect on stratospheric ozone (O3) from operations of supersonic and subsonic aircraft. The study is based on six emission scenarios provided to AER. The study showed that: (1) the O3 response is dominated by the portion of the emitted nitrogen compounds that is entrained in the stratosphere; (2) the entrainment is a sensitive function of the altitude at which the material is injected; (3) the O3 removal efficiency of the emitted material depends on the concentrations of trace gases in the background atmosphere; and (4) evaluation of the impact of fleet operations in the future atmosphere must take into account the expected changes in trace gas concentrations from other activities. Areas for model improvements in future studies are also discussed.

Gain versus loss framing in adherence-promoting communication targeting patients with chronic diseases: the moderating effect of individual time perspective.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiaoquan; Villagran, Melinda M; Kreps, Gary L; McHorney, Colleen

2012-01-01

This study investigated the joint effect of message framing and time perspective in adherence-promoting communication targeting patients with chronic diseases. Based on previous framing and time perspective research, it was hypothesized that the gain frame would show an advantage over the loss frame among future-oriented patients; for present-oriented patients, it was hypothesized that the framing effect would be relatively indistinct. In total, 1,108 currently nonadherent patients with chronic disease participated in an experiment where they were randomly assigned to either gain- or loss-framed messages addressing key beliefs underlying their nonadherence or a no-message control condition. Intention and attitude regarding future adherence as well as message perceptions were measured after message presentation. Results of this study generally supported the hypotheses. Message topics-whether the messages addressed patients' perceived need for medications or concerns about side effects-did not moderate the effect of framing or the interaction between framing and time perspective. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Effects of viewing relational aggression on television on aggressive behavior in adolescents: A three-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Coyne, Sarah M

2016-02-01

Most researchers on media and aggression have examined the behavioral effects of viewing physical aggression in the media. Conversely, in the current study, I examined longitudinal associations between viewing relational aggression on TV and subsequent aggressive behavior. Participants included 467 adolescents who completed a number of different questionnaires involving media and aggression at 3 different time points. Results revealed that viewing relational aggression on TV was longitudinally associated with future relational aggression. However, early levels of relational aggression did not predict future exposure to televised relational aggression. Conversely, there was a bidirectional relationship between TV violence and physical aggression over time. No longitudinal evidence was found for a general effect of viewing TV, as all significant media effects were specific to the type of aggression viewed. These results support the general aggression model and suggest that viewing relational aggression in the media can have a long-term effect on aggressive behavior during adolescence. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

Dietary nitrate and cardiovascular health

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahluwalia, A.; Gladwin, M.T.; Harman, Jane L.; Ward, M.H.; Nolan, Bernard T.

2014-01-01

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened this workshop to discuss the results of recent research on the effects of inorganic nitrate and nitrite on the cardiovascular system, possible long term effects of these compounds in the diet and drinking water, and future research needs including population-wide effects examined through epidemiological studies.

Developing Metrics for Effective Teaching in Agricultural Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawver, Rebecca G.; McKim, Billy R.; Smith, Amy R.; Aschenbrener, Mollie S.; Enns, Kellie

2016-01-01

Research on effective teaching has been conducted in a variety of settings for more than 40 years. This study offers direction for future effective teaching research in secondary agricultural education and has implications for career and technical education. Specifically, 142 items consisting of characteristics, behaviors, and/or techniques…

[What about the mental time travel and age-related effects?].

PubMed

Coste, Cécile; Navarro, Béatrice; Abram, Maria; Duval, Céline; Picard, Laurence; Piolino, Pascale

2012-03-01

According to Tulving, episodic memory allows humans to travel mentally through subjective time into either the past or the future, this ability being at the origin of adaptation, organization and planning of future behavior. The main aim of this review is to present a state of art of episodic mental time travel and a lifespan perspective from children to elderly people. We examine the numerous similarities between remembering the past and envisioning the future which have been highlighted in cognitive, neuroimaging, and neuropsychological studies. We also present studies that have given evidence that remembering the past and imagining the future differ somewhat. We focus on demonstrating that hippocampal dysfunction is associated with disturbances in the recall of episodic autobiographical details in past memories, but also in the imagining of episodic detailed future events. More specifically, we discuss that the future seems to involve higher semantic processes mediated by the inferior frontal and lateral temporal gyri. We propose that the study of mental travel in personal time could be undertaken in line with the distinction between the memory of (episodic) experiences and (semantic) personal knowledge of one's life, which constitutes a major part of the self and constraints what we have been, what we are now, and what we might yet become.

Effectiveness of cigarette warning labels: examining the impact of graphics, message framing, and temporal framing.

PubMed

Nan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiaoquan; Yang, Bo; Iles, Irina

2015-01-01

This study examines the effectiveness of cigarette warning labels, with a specific focus on the impact of graphics, message framing (gain vs. loss), and temporal framing (present-oriented vs. future-oriented) among nonsmokers in the United States. A controlled experiment (N = 253) revealed that graphic warning labels were perceived as more effective, stronger in argument strength, and were generally liked more compared to text-only labels. In addition, loss-framed labels, compared to their gain-framed counterparts, were rated higher in perceived effectiveness, argument strength, and liking. No significant difference was observed between the present- and future-oriented frames on any of the dependent variables. Implications of the findings for antismoking communication efforts are discussed.

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.

Effects on incidental memory of affective tone in associated past and future episodes: influence of emotional intelligence.

PubMed

Toyota, Hiroshi

2011-02-01

The present study examined the effects of emotion elicited by episodes (past events or expected future events) and the relationship between individual differences in emotional intelligence and memory. Participants' emotional intelligence was assessed on the Japanese version of Emotional Skills and Competence Questionnaire. They rated the pleasantness of episodes they associated with targets, and then performed unexpected free recall tests. When the targets were associated with episodes that were past events, all participants recalled more of the targets associated with pleasant and unpleasant episodes than those associated with neutral episodes. However, when the targets were associated with episodes expected to occur in the future, only participants with higher emotional intelligence scores recalled more of the targets associated with pleasant and unpleasant episodes. The participants with lower emotional intelligence scores recalled the three target types with similar accuracy. These results were interpreted as showing that emotional intelligence is associated with the processing of targets associated with future episodes as retrieval cues.

Silent Brain Infarction and Risk of Future Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Ajay; Giambrone, Ashley E.; Gialdini, Gino; Finn, Caitlin; Delgado, Diana; Gutierrez, Jose; Wright, Clinton; Beiser, Alexa S.; Seshadri, Sudha; Pandya, Ankur; Kamel, Hooman

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Silent brain infarction (SBI) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been proposed as a subclinical risk marker for future symptomatic stroke. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association between MRI-defined SBI and future stroke risk. Methods We searched the medical literature to identify cohort studies involving adults with MRI detection of SBI who were subsequently followed for incident clinically-defined stroke. Study data and quality assessment were recorded in duplicate with disagreements in data extraction resolved by a third reader. Strength association between MRI detected SBI and future symptomatic stroke measured by a hazard ratio (HR). Results The meta-analysis included 13 studies (14,764 subjects) with a mean follow-up ranging from 25.7 to 174 months. SBI predicted the occurrence of stroke with a random effects crude relative risk of 2.94 (95% CI 2.24–3.86, P<0.001; Q=39.65, P<0.001). In the eight studies of 10,427 subjects providing HR adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, SBI was an independent predictor of incident stroke (HR 2.08 [95% CI 1.69–2.56, P<0.001]; Q=8.99, P=0.25). In a subgroup analysis pooling 9,483 stroke-free individuals from large population-based studies, SBI was present in ~18% of participants and remained a strong predictor of future stroke (HR 2.06 [95% CI 1.64–2.59], p<0.01). Conclusions SBI is present in approximately one in five stroke-free older adults and is associated with a 2-fold increased risk of future stroke. Future studies of in-depth stroke risk evaluations and intensive prevention measures are warranted in patients with clinically unrecognized radiologically evident brain infarctions. PMID:26888534

Facilitating comparative effectiveness research in cancer genomics: evaluating stakeholder perceptions of the engagement process.

PubMed

Deverka, Patricia A; Lavallee, Danielle C; Desai, Priyanka J; Armstrong, Joanne; Gorman, Mark; Hole-Curry, Leah; O'Leary, James; Ruffner, B W; Watkins, John; Veenstra, David L; Baker, Laurence H; Unger, Joseph M; Ramsey, Scott D

2012-07-01

The Center for Comparative Effectiveness Research in Cancer Genomics completed a 2-year stakeholder-guided process for the prioritization of genomic tests for comparative effectiveness research studies. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of engagement procedures in achieving project goals and to identify opportunities for future improvements. The evaluation included an online questionnaire, one-on-one telephone interviews and facilitated discussion. Responses to the online questionnaire were tabulated for descriptive purposes, while transcripts from key informant interviews were analyzed using a directed content analysis approach. A total of 11 out of 13 stakeholders completed both the online questionnaire and interview process, while nine participated in the facilitated discussion. Eighty-nine percent of questionnaire items received overall ratings of agree or strongly agree; 11% of responses were rated as neutral with the exception of a single rating of disagreement with an item regarding the clarity of how stakeholder input was incorporated into project decisions. Recommendations for future improvement included developing standard recruitment practices, role descriptions and processes for improved communication with clinical and comparative effectiveness research investigators. Evaluation of the stakeholder engagement process provided constructive feedback for future improvements and should be routinely conducted to ensure maximal effectiveness of stakeholder involvement.

Perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their future labour market participation - an eight-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Trolle, Nanna; Lund, Thomas; Winding, Trine Nohr; Labriola, Merete

2017-03-31

Labour market participation among young adults is essential for their future socioeconomic status and health. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their labour market participation 8 years later as well as investigate any potential gender differences. A cohort of 1640 young adults born in 1983 completed a questionnaire in 2004 in which perceived stress was measured. The cohort was followed in a register of social benefits for 12 months in 2011-2012 and was categorized into active and passive labour market participation. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between perceived stress and future labour market participation, taking into account effects of potential confounders. The analyses were stratified by gender. The effects of perceived stress on future labour market participation differed significantly among young women and young men (p = 0.029). For young men, higher levels of perceived stress reduced the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for socioeconomic factors, self-rated health and copings strategies (p = 0.045). For young women, higher levels of perceived stress increased the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for the same potential confounding factors, although unlike the men, this association was not statistically significant (p = 0.335). The observed gender difference has important implications from a public health point of view. Healthcare professionals might need to differentiate between the genders in terms of health communication, research and when developing preventive strategies.

What Shapes Adolescents' Future Perceptions? The Effects of Hearing Loss, Social Affiliation, and Career Self-Efficacy.

PubMed

Michael, Rinat; Cinamon, Rachel Gali; Most, Tova

2015-10-01

The current study examined the contribution of hearing loss, social affiliation, and career self-efficacy to adolescents' future perceptions. Participants were 191 11th and 12th grade students: 60 who were deaf, 36 who were deaf or hard of hearing, and 95 who were hearing. They completed the Future Perceptions Scale, the Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy (CDMSE) Scale, and the Self-Efficacy for the Management of Work-Family Conflict Scale. Results indicated that participants who were deaf reported significantly higher levels of future clarity and intensity than the other groups. However, no significant differences were found in career self-efficacy. Hearing status and affiliation and the efficacy to manage future conflict between work and family roles were significant predictors of participants' future clarity. CDMSE was a significant predictor of future planning. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Changing Health Behaviors to Improve Health Outcomes after Angioplasty: A Randomized Trial of Net Present Value versus Future Value Risk Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charlson, M. E.; Peterson, J. C.; Boutin-Foster, C.; Briggs, W. M.; Ogedegbe, G. G.; McCulloch, C. E.; Hollenberg, J.; Wong, C.; Allegrante, J. P.

2008-01-01

Patients who have undergone angioplasty experience difficulty modifying at-risk behaviors for subsequent cardiac events. The purpose of this study was to test whether an innovative approach to framing of risk, based on "net present value" economic theory, would be more effective in behavioral intervention than the standard "future value approach"…

Advanced power generation systems for the 21st Century: Market survey and recommendations for a design philosophy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andriulli, J.B.; Gates, A.E.; Haynes, H.D.

1999-11-01

The purpose of this report is to document the results of a study designed to enhance the performance of future military generator sets (gen-sets) in the medium power range. The study includes a market survey of the state of the art in several key component areas and recommendations comprising a design philosophy for future military gen-sets. The market survey revealed that the commercial market is in a state of flux, but it is currently or will soon be capable of providing the technologies recommended here in a cost-effective manner. The recommendations, if implemented, should result in future power generation systemsmore » that are much more functional than today's gen-sets. The number of differing units necessary (both family sizes and frequency modes) to cover the medium power range would be decreased significantly, while the weight and volume of each unit would decrease, improving the transportability of the power source. Improved fuel economy and overall performance would result from more effective utilization of the prime mover in the generator. The units would allow for more flexibility and control, improved reliability, and more effective power management in the field.« less

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada Inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

PubMed Central

McPherson, Michelle; García-García, Almudena; Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Ogden, Nicholas Hume

2017-01-01

Background: A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. Objectives: We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. Methods: We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical (1971–2000), and to forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Results: Increases in the multimodel mean R0 values estimated for both future periods, relative to 1971–2000, were statistically significant under all RCP scenarios for all of Nova Scotia, areas of New Brunswick and Quebec, Ontario south of 47°N, and Manitoba south of 52°N. When comparing RCP scenarios, only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences for any future time period. Conclusion: Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP57 PMID:28599266

Flooding in the future--predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas.

PubMed

Ashley, R M; Balmforth, D J; Saul, A J; Blanskby, J D

2005-01-01

Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Interactive effects of nocturnal transpiration and climate change on the root hydraulic redistribution and carbon and water budgets of southern United States pine plantations.

PubMed

Domec, Jean-Christophe; Ogée, Jérôme; Noormets, Asko; Jouangy, Julien; Gavazzi, Michael; Treasure, Emrys; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steve G; King, John S

2012-06-01

Deep root water uptake and hydraulic redistribution (HR) have been shown to play a major role in forest ecosystems during drought, but little is known about the impact of climate change, fertilization and soil characteristics on HR and its consequences on water and carbon fluxes. Using data from three mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations, and simulations with the process-based model MuSICA, this study indicated that HR can mitigate the effects of soil drying and had important implications for carbon uptake potential and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), especially when N fertilization is considered. At the coastal site (C), characterized by deep organic soil, HR increased dry season tree transpiration (T) by up to 40%, and such an increase affected NEE through major changes in gross primary productivity (GPP). Deep-rooted trees did not necessarily translate into a large volume of HR unless soil texture allowed large water potential gradients to occur, as was the case at the sandy site (S). At the Piedmont site (P) characterized by a shallow clay-loam soil, HR was low but not negligible, representing up to 10% of T. In the absence of HR, it was predicted that at the C, S and P sites, annual GPP would have been diminished by 19, 7 and 9%, respectively. Under future climate conditions HR was predicted to be reduced by up to 25% at the C site, reducing the resilience of trees to precipitation deficits. The effect of HR on T and GPP was predicted to diminish under future conditions by 12 and 6% at the C and P sites, respectively. Under future conditions, T was predicted to stay the same at the P site, but to be marginally reduced at the C site and slightly increased at the S site. Future conditions and N fertilization would decrease T by 25% at the C site, by 15% at the P site and by 8% at the S site. At the C and S sites, GPP was estimated to increase by 18% and by >70% under future conditions, respectively, with little effect of N fertilization. At the P site, future conditions would stimulate GPP by only 12%, but future conditions plus N fertilization would increase GPP by 24%. As a consequence, in all sites, water use efficiency was predicted to improve dramatically with future conditions. Modeling the effect of reduced annual precipitation indicated that limited water availability would decrease all carbon fluxes, including NEE and respiration. Our simulations highlight the interactive effects of nutrients and elevated CO(2), and showed that the effect of N fertilization would be greater under future climate conditions.

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

PubMed Central

Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas. PMID:26488750

Effects of Client Violence on Social Work Students: A National Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Criss, Pam

2010-01-01

This study uses a work stress theoretical framework to examine the effects of direct and indirect client violence on a randomly selected national sample of MSW and BSW social work students from the National Association of Social Workers (N=595). Client violence variables were analyzed in relationship to fear of future violence and occupational…

The Effectiveness of an Embedded Approach to Practicum Experiences in Educational Leadership: Program Candidates' Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chandler, Mary; Chan, Tak Cheung; Jiang, Binbin

2013-01-01

This study examined how effective an embedded practicum experience in an educational leadership program in a Southeastern University is in serving the purpose of preparing educational leaders to meet future challenges. Findings of this study confirm practicum areas that met the educational demands and highlight areas that need improvement to…

Substance abuse prevention intervention research with Hispanic populations.

PubMed

Castro, Felipe González; Barrera, Manuel; Pantin, Hilda; Martinez, Charles; Felix-Ortiz, Maria; Rios, Rebeca; Lopez, Vera A; Lopez, Cristy

2006-09-01

Selected studies with specific relevance to substance abuse prevention interventions with Hispanic youth and families were examined to identify prior findings and emerging issues that may guide the design of future substance abuse prevention intervention research and its implementation with Hispanic populations. The origins of prevention research and role of risk and protective factors are examined, including culturally-specific risk and protective factors for Hispanic populations. Correlational studies, non-experimental interventions, and randomized controlled trials were examined for the period of 1974-2003. The literature search yielded 15 articles selected for this review that exhibited adequate methodological rigor. An added search for more recent studies identified three additional articles, for a total of 18 prevention intervention articles that were reviewed. Theoretical and methodological issues and recommendations are presented for future research aimed at improving the efficacy and effectiveness of future prevention intervention studies and their cultural relevance for Hispanic populations.

Mindfulness-Based Interventions for Older Adults: A Review of the Effects on Physical and Emotional Well-being

PubMed Central

Geiger, Paul J.; Boggero, Ian A.; Brake, C. Alex; Caldera, Carolina A.; Combs, Hannah L.; Peters, Jessica R.; Baer, Ruth A.

2015-01-01

This comprehensive review examined the effects of mindfulness-based interventions on the physical and emotional wellbeing of older adults, a rapidly growing segment of the general population. Search procedures yielded 15 treatment outcome studies meeting inclusion criteria. Support was found for the feasibility and acceptability of mindfulness-based interventions with older adults. Physical and emotional wellbeing outcome variables offered mixed support for the use of mindfulness-based interventions with older adults. Potential explanations of mixed findings may include methodological flaws, study limitations, and inconsistent modifications of protocols. These are discussed in detail and future avenues of research are discussed, emphasizing the need to incorporate geriatric populations into future mindfulness-based empirical research. PMID:27200109

The NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatti, Mark

2006-01-01

The DSN Array Project is currently working with Senior Management at both JPL and NASA to develop strategies towards starting a major implementation project. Several studies within NASA are concluding, all of which recommend that any future DSN capability include arraying of antennas to increase performance. Support of Deep Space, Lunar, and CEV (crewed exploration vehicle) missions is possible. High data rate and TDRSS formatting is being investigated. Any future DSN capacity must include Uplink. Current studies ongoing to investigate and develop technologies for uplink arraying; provides advantages in three ways: 1) N2 effect. EIRP grows as N2(-vs-N for a downlink array); 2) Improved architectural options (can separate uplink and downlink); and 3) Potential for more cost effective transmitters for fixed EIRP.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

Methodology to explore interactions between the water system and society in order to identify adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Offermans, A. G. E.; Haasnoot, M.

2009-04-01

Development of sustainable water management strategies involves analysing current and future vulnerability, identification of adaptation possibilities, effect analysis and evaluation of the strategies under different possible futures. Recent studies on water management often followed the pressure-effect chain and compared the state of social, economic and ecological functions of the water systems in one or two future situations with the current situation. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. Water management faces major challenges to cope with future uncertainties in both the water system as well as the social system. Uncertainties in our water system relate to (changes in) drivers and pressures and their effects on the state, like the effects of climate change on discharges. Uncertainties in the social world relate to changing of perceptions, objectives and demands concerning water (management), which are often related with the aforementioned changes in the physical environment. The methodology presented here comprises the 'Perspectives method', derived from the Cultural Theory, a method on analyzing and classifying social response to social and natural states and pressures. The method will be used for scenario analysis and to identify social responses including changes in perspectives and management strategies. The scenarios and responses will be integrated within a rapid assessment tool. The purpose of the tool is to provide users with insight about the interaction of the social and physical system and to identify robust water management strategies by analysing the effectiveness under different possible futures on the physical, social and socio-economic system. This method allows for a mutual interaction between the physical and social system. We will present the theoretical background of the perspectives method as well as a historical overview of perspective changes in the Dutch Meuse area to show how social and physical systems interrelate. We will also show how the integration of both can contribute to the identification of robust water management strategies.

On discounting of health gains from human papillomavirus vaccination: effects of different approaches.

PubMed

Westra, Tjalke A; Parouty, Mehraj; Brouwer, Werner B; Beutels, Philippe H; Rogoza, Raina M; Rozenbaum, Mark H; Daemen, Toos; Wilschut, Jan C; Boersma, Cornelis; Postma, Maarten J

2012-05-01

Discounting has long been a matter of controversy in the field of health economic evaluations. How to weigh future health effects has resulted in ongoing discussions. These discussions are imminently relevant for health care interventions with current costs but future benefits. Different approaches to discount health effects have been proposed. In this study, we estimated the impact of different approaches for discounting health benefits of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. An HPV model was used to estimate the impact of different discounting approaches on the present value of health effects. For the constant discount approaches, we varied the discount rate for health effects ranging from 0% to 4%. Next, the impact of relevant alternative discounting approaches was estimated, including hyperbolic, proportional, stepwise, and time-shifted discounting. The present value of health effects gained through HPV vaccination varied strongly when varying discount rates and approaches. The application of the current Dutch guidelines resulted in a present value of health effects that was eight or two times higher than that produced when using the proportional discounting approach or when using the internationally more common 4% discount rate for health effects, respectively. Obviously, such differences translate into large variations in corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The exact discount rate and approach chosen in an economic evaluation importantly impact the projected value of health benefits of HPV vaccination. Investigating alternative discounting approaches in health-economic analysis is important, especially for vaccination programs yielding health effects far into the future. Our study underlines the relevance of ongoing discussions on how and at what rates to discount. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role and effect of complementary and alternative medicine in systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Haija, Anan J; Schulz, Steffan W

2011-02-01

The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is common among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), especially those with active disease who often have poorer quality of life and significant unmet needs. It is important for the rheumatologist to be aware of these therapies and to ask the patient with SLE about their active use or future interest in CAM. Future studies on the effectiveness of the aforementioned therapies will be crucial to find better ways for the rheumatologist to integrate their use into the care of the patient with SLE. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Opportunities for future supernova studies of cosmic acceleration.

PubMed

Weller, J; Albrecht, A

2001-03-05

We investigate the potential of a future supernova data set, as might be obtained by the proposed SNAP satellite, to discriminate among different "dark energy" theories that describe an accelerating Universe. We find that many such models can be distinguished with a fit to the effective pressure-to-density ratio w of this energy. More models can be distinguished when the effective slope dw/dz of a changing w is also fit, but only if our knowledge of the current mass density Omega(m) is improved. We investigate the use of "fitting functions" to interpret luminosity distance data from supernova searches.

A Systematic Review on the Designs of Clinical Technology: Findings and Recommendations for Future Research

PubMed Central

PhD, Greg Alexander; Staggers, Nancy

2010-01-01

Human factors (HF) studies are increasingly important as technology infuses into clinical settings. No nursing research reviews exist in this area. The authors conducted a systematic review on designs of clinical technology, 34 articles with 50 studies met inclusion criteria. Findings were classified into three categories based on HF research goals. The majority of studies evaluated effectiveness of clinical design; efficiency was fewest. Current research ranges across many interface types examined with no apparent pattern or obvious rationale. Future research should expand types, settings, participants; integrate displays; and expand outcome variables. PMID:19707093

Longitudinal, reciprocal effects of social skills and achievement from kindergarten to eighth grade.

PubMed

Caemmerer, Jacqueline M; Keith, Timothy Z

2015-08-01

Previous research suggests that students' social skills and achievement are interrelated, and some findings support bi-directional effects between the two constructs. The purpose of this research study was to estimate the possible longitudinal and reciprocal effects of social skills and achievement for kindergarten through eighth grade students. Data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study program were analyzed; teachers' ratings of students' social skills and students' standardized math and reading achievement performance were collected 4 and 5 times, respectively. Latent variable structural equation modeling was used to test a panel model of reciprocal, longitudinal effects of social skills and achievement. The results suggest that the effects of students' social skills and achievement are bi-directional, but the effects of students' achievement on their later social skills are stronger than the effects of social skills on achievement. The significant effects of students' social skills on their later achievement are mostly indirect. These findings suggest that the future social skills of students who struggle academically may be of particular concern to educators, and intervention and prevention efforts aimed to address both social and achievement skills may help remediate the other skill in the future. Copyright © 2015 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodological Characteristics and Future Directions for Plyometric Jump Training Research: A Scoping Review.

PubMed

Ramirez-Campillo, Rodrigo; Álvarez, Cristian; García-Hermoso, Antonio; Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson; Gentil, Paulo; Asadi, Abbas; Chaabene, Helmi; Moran, Jason; Meylan, Cesar; García-de-Alcaraz, Antonio; Sanchez-Sanchez, Javier; Nakamura, Fabio Y; Granacher, Urs; Kraemer, William; Izquierdo, Mikel

2018-05-01

Recently, there has been a proliferation of published articles on the effect of plyometric jump training, including several review articles and meta-analyses. However, these types of research articles are generally of narrow scope. Furthermore, methodological limitations among studies (e.g., a lack of active/passive control groups) prevent the generalization of results, and these factors need to be addressed by researchers. On that basis, the aims of this scoping review were to (1) characterize the main elements of plyometric jump training studies (e.g., training protocols) and (2) provide future directions for research. From 648 potentially relevant articles, 242 were eligible for inclusion in this review. The main issues identified related to an insufficient number of studies conducted in females, youths, and individual sports (~ 24.0, ~ 37.0, and ~ 12.0% of overall studies, respectively); insufficient reporting of effect size values and training prescription (~ 34.0 and ~ 55.0% of overall studies, respectively); and studies missing an active/passive control group and randomization (~ 40.0 and ~ 20.0% of overall studies, respectively). Furthermore, plyometric jump training was often combined with other training methods and added to participants' daily training routines (~ 47.0 and ~ 39.0% of overall studies, respectively), thus distorting conclusions on its independent effects. Additionally, most studies lasted no longer than 7 weeks. In future, researchers are advised to conduct plyometric training studies of high methodological quality (e.g., randomized controlled trials). More research is needed in females, youth, and individual sports. Finally, the identification of specific dose-response relationships following plyometric training is needed to specifically tailor intervention programs, particularly in the long term.

Effective Planning of the Future of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sentsov, A.; Bolsunovskaya, Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L.

2014-08-01

The problems of the Arctic region have become the most important ones in the world. Political risks hinder the industrial development of the region. This paper addresses the problem of planning and modeling the future of this region. It presents the problems of developing a model of the future due to the ideologies and strategies of two main actors in the Arctic, the United States and the Russian Federation. The effects of a bipolar perception of the future of the region and of the whole world are shown. A model of the effective planning of the future of the Arctic region is proposed.

Research notes : best practices for traffic impact studies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-11-01

Traffic Impact Studies (TISs) are used by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) and staff of other transportation agencies to forecast future system effects from proposed development projects and to predict the useful life of a transportatio...

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

2012-04-01

Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking and enable the determination of the immediate benefits in terms of additional revenues of ski ticket sales. Furthermore, we conduct an econometric analysis of how snowmaking investments changed ski ticket prices in previous years, as the positive effects of snowmaking on snow reliability could be offset in the longer term by the effects of higher prices for skiing, possibly resulting in lower demand.

Endogenous opioid system: a promising target for future smoking cessation medications.

PubMed

Norman, Haval; D'Souza, Manoranjan S

2017-05-01

Nicotine addiction continues to be a health challenge across the world. Despite several approved medications, smokers continue to relapse. Several human and animal studies have evaluated the role of the endogenous opioid system as a potential target for smoking cessation medications. In this review, studies that have elucidated the role of the mu (MORs), delta (DORs), and kappa (KORs) opioid receptors in nicotine reward, nicotine withdrawal, and reinstatement of nicotine seeking will be discussed. Additionally, the review will discuss discrepancies in the literature and therapeutic potential of the endogenous opioid system, and suggest studies to address gaps in knowledge with respect to the role of the opioid receptors in nicotine dependence. Data available till date suggest that blockade of the MORs and DORs decreased the rewarding effects of nicotine, while activation of the MORs and DORs decreased nicotine withdrawal-induced aversive effects. In contrast, activation of the KORs decreased the rewarding effects of nicotine, while blockade of the KORs decreased nicotine withdrawal-induced aversive effects. Interestingly, blockade of the MORs and KORs attenuated reinstatement of nicotine seeking. In humans, MOR antagonists have shown benefits in select subpopulations of smokers and further investigation is required to realize their full therapeutic potential. Future work must assess the influence of polymorphisms in opioid receptor-linked genes in nicotine dependence, which will help in both identifying individuals vulnerable to nicotine addiction and the development of opioid-based smoking cessation medications. Overall, the endogenous opioid system continues to be a promising target for future smoking cessation medications.

A Sensitivity Study on the Effectiveness of Active Debris Removal in LEO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J. C.; Johnson, Nicholas L.

2007-01-01

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but may be insufficient to stabilize the environment. The nature of the growth, in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, is further demonstrated by a recent study where no future space launches were conducted in the environment projection simulations. The results indicate that, even with no new launches, the LEO debris population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris. Therefore, to better limit the growth of future debris population to protect the environment, remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. A removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed to rank objects at the beginning of each projection year. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 2 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed, and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.

Positive effect of social work-related values on work outcomes: the moderating role of age and work situation.

PubMed

Yeung, Dannii Y; Fung, Helene H; Chan, Darius K-S

2015-03-01

This study investigated the effect of social work-related values on job performance through job satisfaction and tested whether age and work situation would moderate such associations. This study consists of two parts: Part 1 is a cross-sectional survey among 299 Chinese clerical employees aged 19-60 years and Part 2 is a 14-day experience sampling study in a subsample of Part 1 (N = 67). Part 1 revealed that age moderated the effect of social work-related values on job performance through job satisfaction, with a stronger positive effect in older workers than in younger workers. Part 2 demonstrated that the moderating effect of age shown in Part 1 also varied across work situations. In particular, holding momentary social work-related values was beneficial to the task performance of older workers, and the effect was significantly stronger when they were in social situations than in nonsocial situations, whereas the effect remained weak among younger workers regardless of work context. Moreover, the moderating effect of age could be accounted for by future time perspective. This study supports socioemotional selectivity theory that goal orientation shifts toward the emphasis of interpersonal closeness when one perceives future time as increasingly limited. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations of future changes in landfalling atmospheric rivers over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture inmore » the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.« less

Prevention of Rheumatic Diseases: Strategies, Caveats and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Finckh, Axel

2014-01-01

Rheumatic diseases affect a significant portion of the population and lead to increased health care costs, disability and even premature mortality; as such, effective preventive measures for these diseases could lead to substantial improvements in public health. Importantly, established and emerging data from natural history studies show that for most rheumatic diseases there is a period of ‘preclinical’ disease development during which abnormal biomarkers or other processes can be detected. These changes are useful to understand mechanisms of disease pathogenesis; in addition, they may be applied to estimate a personal risk of future disease, while individuals are still relatively asymptomatic. Based on this, a hope is to implement effective screening and preventive approaches for some rheumatic diseases, perhaps in the near future. However, a key part of such approaches is a deep understanding of the mechanisms of disease development as well as evidence-based and effective screening and preventive interventions that incorporate disease biology as well as ethical and public health concerns. PMID:25437291

Tangible User Interfaces and Contrasting Cases as a Preparation for Future Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bertrand; Blikstein, Paulo

2018-04-01

In this paper, we describe an experiment that compared the use of a Tangible User Interface (physical objects augmented with digital information) and a set of Contrasting Cases as a preparation for future learning. We carried out an experiment (N = 40) with a 2 × 2 design: the first factor compared traditional instruction ("Tell & Practice") with a constructivist activity designed using the Preparation for Future Learning framework (PFL). The second factor contrasted state-of-the-art PFL learning activity (i.e., students studying Contrasting Cases) with an interactive tabletop featuring digitally enhanced manipulatives. In agreement with prior work, we found that dyads of students who followed the PFL activity achieved significantly higher learning gains compared to their peers who followed a traditional "Tell & Practice" instruction (large effect size). A similar effect was found in favor of the interactive tabletop compared to the Contrasting Cases (small-to-moderate effect size). We discuss implications for designing socio-constructivist activities using new computer interfaces.

Predicted and tested performance of durable TPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shideler, John L.

1992-01-01

The development of thermal protection systems (TPS) for aerospace vehicles involves combining material selection, concept design, and verification tests to evaluate the effectiveness of the system. The present paper reviews verification tests of two metallic and one carbon-carbon thermal protection system. The test conditions are, in general, representative of Space Shuttle design flight conditions which may be more or less severe than conditions required for future space transportation systems. The results of this study are intended to help establish a preliminary data base from which the designers of future entry vehicles can evaluate the applicability of future concepts to their vehicles.

Future population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki.

PubMed

Yokota, Kenichi; Mine, Mariko; Shibata, Yoshisada

2013-01-01

The Nagasaki University Atomic Bomb Survivor Database, which was established in 1978 for elucidating the long-term health effects of the atomic bombing, has registered since 1970 about 120,000 atomic bomb survivors with a history of residence in Nagasaki city. Since the number of atomic bomb survivors has steadily been decreasing, prediction of future population is important for planning future epidemiologic studies, and we tried to predict the population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki city from 2008 to 2030. In addition, we evaluated our estimated population comparing with the actual number from 2008 to 2011.

The Effects of Clickers and Online Homework on Students' Achievement in General Chemistry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gebru, Misganaw T.

2012-01-01

Retention of an introductory general chemistry course material is vital for student success in future chemistry and chemistry-related courses. This study investigated the effects of clickers versus online homework on students' long-term content retention, examined the effectiveness of online homework versus no graded homework on…

Peer Study Groups as Catalyst for Vocational Exploration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arendale, David R.; Hane, Amanda R.

2016-01-01

Postsecondary peer assisted learning programs often cite improving academic achievement for students. This qualitative study investigated the potential effect of serving as student facilitators of a peer study group on their future vocation. This was a replication of previous studies of personal and professional outcomes for study group…

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

Endangered species protection and water resource development. [Endangered Species Act and its implementation; case study-survival of the whooping crane

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, W.

1980-03-01

The Endangered Species Act and its implementation are reviewed, with special attention given to the Act's recent Amendments. This Act has played a major role in litigation surrounding several recent water resource developments. A case study of one such, the Missouri Basin Power Project, is discussed. In addition to a short case history, issues covered include the following: the link between the Power Project and its impact on the endangered species, its effect on the distribution of water resurces, its effect on future development on the Platte River, and the extent to which a range of preservation options can bemore » considered under the Act. Tentative general conclusions will be drawn concerning the flexibility of the Act, its cost effectiveness, and its implications for future water resource development.« less

Future Prospects of Health Management Systems Using Cellular Phones

PubMed Central

Kim, Hun-Sung; Hwang, Yunji; Lee, Jae-Ho; Oh, Hye Young; Kim, Yi-Jun; Kwon, Hyeon Yoon; Kang, Hyoseung; Kim, Hyunah; Park, Rae Woong

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Cellular phones enable communication between healthcare providers and patients for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases. However, few studies have examined the user-friendliness or effectiveness of cellular phone-based medical informatics (CPBMI) for healthcare. Materials and Methods: This study investigated the use of CPBMI to identify its current status within the medical field, advantages and disadvantages, practicability, clinical effectiveness, costs, and cost-saving potential. Results: CPBMI was validated in terms of practicality and provision of medical benefits. It is critical to use CPBMI in accordance with the different features of each disease and condition. Use of CPBMI is expected to be especially useful for patients with chronic disease. Conclusions: We discussed the current status of the clinical use, benefits, and risks of CPBMI. CPBMI and information technology–based health management tools are anticipated to become useful and effective components of healthcare management in the future. PMID:24693986

Airframe Noise Studies: Review and Future Direction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rackl, Robert G.; Miller, Gregory; Guo, Yueping; Yamamoto, Kingo

2005-01-01

This report contains the following information: 1) a review of airframe noise research performed under NASA's Advanced Subsonic Transport (AST) program up to the year 2000, 2) a comparison of the year 1992 airframe noise predictions with those using a year 2000 baseline, 3) an assessment of various airframe noise reduction concepts as applied to the year 2000 baseline predictions, and 4) prioritized recommendations for future airframe noise reduction work. NASA's Aircraft Noise Prediction Program was the software used for all noise predictions and assessments. For future work, the recommendations for the immediate future focus on the development of design tools sensitive to airframe noise treatment effects and on improving the basic understanding of noise generation by the landing gear as well as on its reduction.

Creating a future for nursing through interactive planning at the bedside.

PubMed

Foust, J B

1994-01-01

Interactive planning is introduced as an approach to planning amidst change that may be useful in clinical practice. The underlying principles and unique characteristics of interactive planning are presented. In addition, clinical studies suggesting its inherent presence in nursing practice are identified. Effective care planning as a developmental process provides nurses with a favorable opportunity to both contribute to individualized patient care and create our own professional future.

Infrastructure in the 21st Century Economy: A Review of the Issues and Outline of a Study of the Impacts of Federal Infrastructure Investments

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-07-01

future effects since future technologies like MAGLEV haven’t transpired yet. IV. Panel Question and Answers Nadiri: Let me make two points. First, this...towards Medicare or infrastructure and then within that MAGLEV or fiber optics, but the econometrics is so loose on this that we can’t really say much

Evaluating employee assistance programs. A review of methods, outcomes, and future directions.

PubMed

Jerrell, J M; Rightmyer, J F

1982-01-01

Renewed interest in assisting troubled employees has led to an upsurge in the development of employee assistance programs, coupled with demands for demonstrable effectiveness. This review examines the nature and scope of these programs, their administrative and methodological context, and the types and outcomes of evaluation studies conducted thus far. Proposals for improving future investigations through a number of different approaches and strategies are then made.

A Parametric Study on Using Active Debris Removal to Stabilize the Future LEO Debris Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.C.

2010-01-01

Recent analyses of the instability of the orbital debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have reignited the interest in using active debris removal (ADR) to remediate the environment. There are; however, monumental technical, resources, operational, legal, and political challenges in making economically viable ADR a reality. Before a consensus on the need for ADR can be reached, a careful analysis of the effectiveness of ADR must be conducted. The goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of using ADR to preserve the future environment and to guide its implementation to maximize the benefit-cost ratio. This paper describes a comprehensive sensitivity study on using ADR to stabilize the future LEO debris environment. The NASA long-term, orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of many key parameters. These parameters include (1) the starting epoch of ADR implementation, (2) various target selection criteria, (3) the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers, (4) the consequence of targeting specific inclination or altitude regimes, (5) the consequence of targeting specific classes of vehicles, and (6) the timescale of removal. Additional analyses on the importance of postmission disposal and how future launches might affect the requirements to stabilize the environment are also included.

The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study

PubMed Central

Webber, Laura; Divajeva, Diana; Marsh, Tim; McPherson, Klim; Brown, Martin; Galea, Gauden; Breda, Joao

2014-01-01

Objective Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the biggest cause of death in Europe putting an unsustainable burden on already struggling health systems. Increases in obesity are a major cause of NCDs. This paper projects the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes and seven cancers by 2030 in 53 WHO European Region countries based on current and past body mass index (BMI) trends. It also tests the impact of obesity interventions on the future disease burden. Setting and participants Secondary data analysis of country-specific epidemiological data using a microsimulation modelling process. Interventions The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%. Primary and secondary outcome measures Quantifying the future burden of major NCDs and the impact of interventions on this future disease burden. Results By 2030 in the whole of the European region, the prevalence of diabetes, CHD and stroke and cancers was projected to reach an average of 3990, 4672 and 2046 cases/100 000, respectively. The highest prevalence of diabetes was predicted in Slovakia (10 870), CHD and stroke—in Greece (11 292) and cancers—in Finland (5615 cases/100 000). A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases. The largest reduction in diabetes and CHD and stroke was observed in Slovakia (3054 and 3369 cases/100 000, respectively), and in cancers was predicted in Germany (331/100 000). Conclusions Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs. Future research will allow real policy interventions to be tested; however, better surveillance data on NCDs and their risk factors are essential for research and policy. PMID:25063459

Numerical investigation on an array of Helmholtz resonators for the reduction of micro-pressure waves in modern and future high-speed rail tunnel systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebbutt, J. A.; Vahdati, M.; Carolan, D.; Dear, J. P.

2017-07-01

Previous research has proposed that an array of Helmholtz resonators may be an effective method for suppressing the propagation of pressure and sound waves, generated by a high-speed train entering and moving in a tunnel. The array can be used to counteract environmental noise from tunnel portals and also the emergence of a shock wave in the tunnel. The implementation of an array of Helmholtz resonators in current and future high-speed train-tunnel systems is studied. Wave propagation in the tunnel is modelled using a quasi-one-dimensional formulation, accounting for non-linear effects, wall friction and the diffusivity of sound. A multi-objective genetic algorithm is then used to optimise the design of the array, subject to the geometric constraints of a demonstrative tunnel system and the incident wavefront in order to attenuate the propagation of pressure waves. It is shown that an array of Helmholtz resonators can be an effective countermeasure for various tunnel lengths. In addition, the array can be designed to function effectively over a wide operating envelope, ensuring it will still function effectively as train speeds increase into the future.

Projected effects of vegetation feedbacks on drought characteristics with SPEI over West Africa using the RegCM-CLM-CN-DV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaehyeong, L.; Kim, Y.; Erfanian, A.; Wang, G.; Um, M. J.

2017-12-01

This study utilizes the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to investigate the projected effect of vegetation feedbacks on drought in West Africa using the Regional Climate Model coupled to the NCAR Community Land Model with both the Carbon and Nitrogen module (CN) and Dynamic Vegetation module (DV) activated (RegCM-CLM-CN-DV). The role of vegetation feedbacks is examined based on simulations with and without dynamic vegetation. The four different future climate scenarios from CCSM, GFDL, MIROC and MPI are used as the boundary conditions of RegCM for two historical and future periods, i.e., for 1981 to 2000 and for 2081 to 2100, respectively. Using SPEI, the duration, frequency, severity and spatial extents are quantified over West Africa and analyzed for two regions of the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea. In this study, we find that the estimated annual SPEIs clearly indicate that the projected future droughts over the Sahel are enhanced and prolonged when DV is activated. The opposite is shown over the Gulf of Guinea in general. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800), by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180 and by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.

1992-01-01

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Recent and future liquid metal experiments on homogeneous dynamo action and magnetic instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefani, Frank; Gerbeth, Gunter; Giesecke, Andre; Gundrum, Thomas; Kirillov, Oleg; Seilmayer, Martin; Gellert, Marcus; Rüdiger, Günther; Gailitis, Agris

2011-10-01

The present status of the Riga dynamo experiment is summarized and the prospects for its future exploitation are evaluated. We further discuss the plans for a large-scale precession driven dynamo experiment to be set-up in the framework of the new installation DRESDYN (DREsden Sodium facility for dynamo and thermohydraulic studies) at Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. We report recent investigations of the magnetorotational instability and the Tayler instability and sketch the plans for another large-scale liquid sodium facility devoted to the combined study of both effects.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

2016-10-01

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

Leveraging Epidemiology and Clinical Studies of Cancer Outcomes: Recommendations and Opportunities for Translational Research

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

As the number of cancer survivors continues to grow, research investigating the factors that affect cancer outcomes, such as disease recurrence, risk of second malignant neoplasms, and the late effects of cancer treatments, becomes ever more important. Numerous epidemiologic studies have investigated factors that affect cancer risk, but far fewer have addressed the extent to which demographic, lifestyle, genomic, clinical, and psychosocial factors influence cancer outcomes. To identify research priorities as well as resources and infrastructure needed to advance the field of cancer outcomes and survivorship research, the National Cancer Institute sponsored a workshop titled “Utilizing Data from Cancer Survivor Cohorts: Understanding the Current State of Knowledge and Developing Future Research Priorities” on November 3, 2011, in Washington, DC. This commentary highlights recent findings presented at the workshop, opportunities to leverage existing data, and recommendations for future research, data, and infrastructure needed to address high priority clinical and research questions. Multidisciplinary teams that include epidemiologists, clinicians, biostatisticians, and bioinformaticists will be essential to facilitate future cancer outcome studies focused on improving clinical care of cancer patients, identifying those at high risk of poor outcomes, and implementing effective interventions to ultimately improve the quality and duration of survival. PMID:23197494

Modeling the relationship between the environment and human experiences.

PubMed

Vink, P; Bazley, C; Jacobs, K

2016-08-12

Within this special issue, different aspects of the environment are studied: aspects that are distant from the human body, close to the body and touching the human body. Consequently, different human senses are involved in these studies as well as the different consequences and effects on the brain and human behaviour. This special issue also highlights many remaining questions about the effects and relationships between environments and human beings and the need for more studies and research. In particular, future studies are needed that address long-term effects and the effects of the combinations of elements which provide comfort or discomfort.

Impacts of land use/cover classification accuracy on regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Jianjun; Qi, Jiaguo; Lofgren, Brent M.; Moore, Nathan; Torbick, Nathan; Olson, Jennifer M.

2007-03-01

Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change. Various land cover data sets, including historically reconstructed, recently observed, and future projected, have been used in numerous climate modeling studies at regional to global scales. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of land cover classification accuracy on climate simulations, though accuracy assessment has become a routine procedure in land cover production community. In this study, we analyzed the behavior of simulated precipitation in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) over a range of simulated classification accuracies over a 3 month period. This study found that land cover accuracy under 80% had a strong effect on precipitation especially when the land surface had a greater control of the atmosphere. This effect became stronger as the accuracy decreased. As shown in three follow-on experiments, the effect was further influenced by model parameterizations such as convection schemes and interior nudging, which can mitigate the strength of surface boundary forcings. In reality, land cover accuracy rarely obtains the commonly recommended 85% target. Its effect on climate simulations should therefore be considered, especially when historically reconstructed and future projected land covers are employed.

Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral-Theory-Based Skill-Training on University Students' Future Anxiety and Trait Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaya, Sinem; Avci, Rasit

2016-01-01

Problem Statement: Future Anxiety (FA) and Trait Anxiety (TA) have negative effects on individuals' productivity, which can lead them to feelings of insecurity and eventually depression. Knowing more about future anxiety helps people feel more secure and produce more effectively for themselves, and eventually for society. This research examined…

Cocaine dependent individuals discount future rewards more than future losses for both cocaine and monetary outcomes.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew W; Bruner, Natalie R; Johnson, Patrick S

2015-01-01

Cocaine dependence and other forms of drug dependence are associated with steeper devaluation of future outcomes (delay discounting). Although studies in this domain have typically assessed choices between monetary gains (e.g., receive less money now versus receive more money after a delay), delay discounting is also applicable to decisions involving losses (e.g., small loss now versus larger delayed loss), with gains typically discounted more than losses (the "sign effect"). It is also known that drugs are discounted more than equivalently valued money. In the context of drug dependence, however, relatively little is known about the discounting of delayed monetary and drug losses and the presence of the sign effect. In this within-subject, laboratory study, delay discounting for gains and losses was assessed for cocaine and money outcomes in cocaine-dependent individuals (n=89). Both cocaine and monetary gains were discounted at significantly greater rates than cocaine and monetary losses, respectively (i.e., the sign effect). Cocaine gains were discounted significantly more than monetary gains, but cocaine and monetary losses were discounted similarly. Results suggest that cocaine is discounted by cocaine-dependent individuals in a systematic manner similar to other rewards. Because the sign effect was shown for both cocaine and money, delayed aversive outcomes may generally have greater impact than delayed rewards in shaping present behavior in this population. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Future Orientation, Social Support, and Psychological Adjustment among Left-behind Children in Rural China: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Su, Shaobing; Li, Xiaoming; Lin, Danhua; Zhu, Maoling

2017-01-01

Existing research has found that parental migration may negatively impact the psychological adjustment of left-behind children. However, limited longitudinal research has examined if and how future orientation (individual protective factor) and social support (contextual protective factor) are associated with the indicators of psychological adjustment (i.e., life satisfaction, school satisfaction, happiness, and loneliness) of left-behind children. In the current longitudinal study, we examined the differences in psychological adjustment between left-behind children and non-left behind children (comparison children) in rural areas, and explored the protective roles of future orientation and social support on the immediate (cross-sectional effects) and subsequent (lagged effects) status of psychological adjustment for both groups of children, respectively. The sample included 897 rural children ( M age = 14.09, SD = 1.40) who participated in two waves of surveys across six months. Among the participants, 227 were left-behind children with two parents migrating, 176 were with one parent migrating, and 485 were comparison children. Results showed that, (1) left-behind children reported lower levels of life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness, as well as a higher level of loneliness in both waves; (2) After controlling for several demographics and characteristics of parental migration among left-behind children, future orientation significantly predicted life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness in both cross-sectional and longitudinal regression models, as well as loneliness in the longitudinal regression analysis. Social support predicted immediate life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness, as well as subsequent school satisfaction. Similar to left-behind children, comparison children who reported higher scores in future orientation, especially future expectation, were likely to have higher scores in most indicators of psychological adjustment measured at the same time and subsequently. However, social support seemed not exhibit as important in the immediate status of psychological adjustment of comparison children as that of left-behind children. Findings, implications, and limitations of the present study were discussed.

Factors related to risky sexual behaviors and effective STI/HIV and pregnancy intervention programs for African American adolescents.

PubMed

Lee, Young Me; Cintron, Adanisse; Kocher, Surinder

2014-01-01

The purpose of this integrative literature review study was to investigate factors related to risky sexual behaviors among African American adolescents, to evaluate which of the factors are common across successful and effective STI/HIV and pregnancy intervention programs, and finally, to propose suggestions for future intervention programs for African American adolescents in West Englewood, Chicago. An integrative literature review was conducted. Using CINAHL, PubMed, and ProQuest database, the following terms were searched: African American, Black, adolescents, teenagers, sexual behavior, cultural factors, pregnancy, STIs/HIV/AIDS, and intervention programs. A total of 18 articles were reviewed, findings indicated there were five major contributing factors related to risky sexual behaviors: substance use, gender roles, peer influences, parental involvement, and level of knowledge and information on sex and STIs. Six successful STI/HIV and pregnancy programs that incorporated those factors to effectively reduce risky sexual behaviors were identified. After analyzing six national intervention programs proven to be effective, the findings suggest that future prevention programs should be designed with more emphasis on avoidance or limited substance use, increased parental involvement, integration of cultural teaching components such as storytelling and history as suggested from the Aban Aya Youth Project. This study also concluded that future prevention programs should consider the length of programs be longer than 1 year, as it has been shown to be more effective than shorter programs. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Communication about emotions during storybook reading: Effects of an instruction programme for children with Down syndrome.

PubMed

Na, Ji Young; Wilkinson, Krista M

2017-08-07

Children with Down syndrome often have more restricted emotion expression and recognition skills than their peers who are developing typically, and potentially fewer opportunities to learn these skills. This study investigated the effect of the Strategies for Talking about Emotions as PartnerS (STEPS) programme on parents' provision of opportunities for emotion communication using visual communication supports. The study used a single-subject multiple-baseline across participants design with three parent-child dyads. Shared book reading was used as the context for parent instruction and data collection. Parents increased their use of the emotion communication strategies immediately following an instructional session, and continued to use them for the remaining phases of the study. In turn, the children participated more actively in the discussion by making comments about emotions when parents provided more opportunities. The STEPS instructional programme is effective for improving parents' provision of opportunities for discussing emotions during storybook reading with children who have Down syndrome. All parents indicated that they would use the strategy during future reading activities. This paper discusses the results of the study and directions for future research.

Does Problem Behavior Elicit Poor Parenting?: A Prospective Study of Adolescent Girls

PubMed Central

Huh, David; Tristan, Jennifer; Wade, Emily; Stice, Eric

2006-01-01

This study tested the hypothesis that perceived parenting would show reciprocal relations with adolescents' problem behavior using longitudinal data from 496 adolescent girls. Results provided support for the assertion that female problem behavior has an adverse effect on parenting; elevated externalizing symptoms and substance abuse symptoms predicted future decreases in perceived parental support and control. There was less support for the assertion that parenting deficits foster adolescent problem behaviors; initially low parental control predicted future increases in substance abuse, but not externalizing symptoms, and low parental support did not predict future increases in externalizing or substance abuse symptoms. Results suggest that problem behavior is a more consistent predictor of parenting than parenting is of problem behavior, at least for girls during middle adolescence. PMID:16528407

Facilitating comparative effectiveness research in cancer genomics: evaluating stakeholder perceptions of the engagement process

PubMed Central

Deverka, Patricia A; Lavallee, Danielle C; Desai, Priyanka J; Armstrong, Joanne; Gorman, Mark; Hole-Curry, Leah; O’Leary, James; Ruffner, BW; Watkins, John; Veenstra, David L; Baker, Laurence H; Unger, Joseph M; Ramsey, Scott D

2013-01-01

Aims The Center for Comparative Effectiveness Research in Cancer Genomics completed a 2-year stakeholder-guided process for the prioritization of genomic tests for comparative effectiveness research studies. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of engagement procedures in achieving project goals and to identify opportunities for future improvements. Materials & methods The evaluation included an online questionnaire, one-on-one telephone interviews and facilitated discussion. Responses to the online questionnaire were tabulated for descriptive purposes, while transcripts from key informant interviews were analyzed using a directed content analysis approach. Results A total of 11 out of 13 stakeholders completed both the online questionnaire and interview process, while nine participated in the facilitated discussion. Eighty-nine percent of questionnaire items received overall ratings of agree or strongly agree; 11% of responses were rated as neutral with the exception of a single rating of disagreement with an item regarding the clarity of how stakeholder input was incorporated into project decisions. Recommendations for future improvement included developing standard recruitment practices, role descriptions and processes for improved communication with clinical and comparative effectiveness research investigators. Conclusions Evaluation of the stakeholder engagement process provided constructive feedback for future improvements and should be routinely conducted to ensure maximal effectiveness of stakeholder involvement. PMID:23459832

Development and Validity-Reliability Study of a Teacher-Child Communication Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erbay, Filiz; Omeroglu, Esra; Cagdas, Aysel

2012-01-01

One of the essential factors for preschool education to succeed and meet expectations is the presence of teachers who have effective communication skills. Effective communication between preschool educators and children influences children's school adjustment, developmental outcomes in different domains, and their future relationship with…

An Overview of Stream Ecological Responses to Urban Effects and Management Practices in New England

EPA Science Inventory

Many recent studies have found large changes in ecological conditions related to small increases in watershed development. Future development and restoration practices will benefit from better documenting the effectiveness of management practices. We present (1) a brief summary o...

Dynamics of contraceptive use in India: apprehension versus future intention among non-users and traditional method users.

PubMed

Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Unisa, Sayeed

2013-06-01

This study examines the reasons for not using any method of contraception as well as reasons for not using modern methods of contraception, and factors associated with the future intention to use different types of contraceptives in India and its selected states, namely Uttar Pradesh, Assam and West Bengal. Data from the third wave of District Level Household and Facility Survey, 2007-08 were used. Bivariate as well as logistic regression analyses were performed to fulfill the study objective. Postpartum amenorrhea and breastfeeding practices were reported as the foremost causes for not using any method of contraception. Opposition to use, health concerns and fear of side effects were reported to be major hurdles in the way of using modern methods of contraception. Results from logistic regression suggest considerable variation in explaining the factors associated with future intention to use contraceptives. Promotion of health education addressing the advantages of contraceptive methods and eliminating apprehension about the use of these methods through effective communication by community level workers is the need of the hour. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combination Pharmacotherapies for Stimulant Use Disorder: A Review of Clinical Findings and Recommendations for Future Research

PubMed Central

Stoops, William W.; Rush, Craig R.

2014-01-01

Despite concerted efforts to identify a pharmacotherapy for managing stimulant use disorders, no widely effective medications have been approved. Innovative strategies are necessary to develop successful pharmacotherapies for stimulant use disorders. This manuscript reviews human laboratory studies and clinical trials to determine whether one such strategy, use of combination pharmacotherapies, holds promise. The extant literature shows that combination pharmacotherapy produced results that were better than placebo treatment, especially with medications shown to have efficacy as monotherapies. However, many studies did not compare individual constituents to the combination treatment, making it impossible to determine whether combination treatment is more effective than monotherapy. Future research should systematically compare combined treatments with individual agents using medications showing some efficacy when tested alone. PMID:24716825

Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

Treesearch

A.A. Ager; M.A. Finney; A. McMahan; J. Carthcart

2010-01-01

Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon...

Fostering Professional Communication Skills of Future Physicians and Teachers: Effects of E-Learning with Video Cases and Role-Play

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gartmeier, Martin; Bauer, Johannes; Fischer, Martin R.; Hoppe-Seyler, Tobias; Karsten, Gudrun; Kiessling, Claudia; Möller, Grit E.; Wiesbeck, Anne; Prenzel, Manfred

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effectiveness of three different versions of a training programme on physician-patient and teacher-parent conversations for medical students and student teachers. The research questions concerned the differential effects of e-learning featuring contrastive video cases, role-play including video feedback and their…

Investing in Michigan's Future: Meeting the Early Childhood Challenge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schweinhart, Lawrence J.; Fulcher-Dawson, Rachel

2006-01-01

This report presents results from research into the effects of early childhood programs on their participants, particularly low-income and at-risk children. The studies described offer evidence on the long-term effects of high quality early childhood programs. Such programs can have long-lasting positive effects on children and their families,…

Size scale effect in cavitation erosion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, P. V.; Rao, B. C.; Buckley, D. H.

1982-01-01

An overview and data analyses pertaining to cavitation erosion size scale effects are presented. The exponents n in the power law relationship are found to vary from 1.7 to 4.9 for venturi and rotating disk devices supporting the values reported in the literature. Suggestions for future studies were made to arrive at further true scale effects.

Prospective Elementary Teachers' Views on Their Teachers and Their Effectiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karakas, Mehmet

2013-01-01

In this paper future elementary teachers reflect on their past experiences and talk about their teachers and the way they were taught, and portray the characteristics of effective and not so effective teachers. The study also highlights Turkish teachers` way of instruction and the strategies they use. Participants were 41 sophomore and 62 junior…

Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages: Evidence from Sweden and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwon, Illoong; Meyersson Milgrom, Eva; Hwang, Seiwoon

2010-01-01

This paper studies the long-term effects of the business cycle on workers' future promotions and wages. Using the Swedish employer-employee matched data, we find that a cohort of workers entering the labor market during a boom gets promoted faster and reaches higher ranks. This procyclical promotion cohort effect persists even after controlling…

Interactive effects of preindustrial, current and future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature on soil fungi associated with two Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Anderson, Ian C; Drigo, Barbara; Keniry, Kerry; Ghannoum, Oula; Chambers, Susan M; Tissue, David T; Cairney, John W G

2013-02-01

Soil microbial processes have a central role in global fluxes of the key biogenic greenhouse gases and are likely to respond rapidly to climate change. Whether climate change effects on microbial processes lead to a positive or negative feedback for terrestrial ecosystem resilience is unclear. In this study, we investigated the interactive effects of [CO(2)] and temperature on soil fungi associated with faster-growing Eucalyptus saligna and slower-growing Eucalyptus sideroxylon, and fungi that colonised hyphal in-growth bags. Plants were grown in native soil under controlled soil moisture conditions, while subjecting the above-ground compartment to defined atmospheric conditions differing in CO(2) concentrations (290, 400, 650 μL L(-1)) and temperature (26 and 30 °C). Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism and sequencing methods were used to examine effects on the structure of the soil fungal communities. There was no significant effect of host plant or [CO(2)]/temperature treatment on fungal species richness (α diversity); however, there was a significant effect on soil fungal community composition (β diversity) which was strongly influenced by eucalypt species. Interestingly, β diversity of soil fungi associated with both eucalypt species was significantly influenced by the elevated [CO(2) ]/high temperature treatment, suggesting that the combination of future predicted levels of atmospheric [CO(2)] and projected increases in global temperature will significantly alter soil fungal community composition in eucalypt forest ecosystems, independent of eucalypt species composition. These changes may arise through direct effects of changes in [CO(2)] and temperature on soil fungi or through indirect effects, which is likely the case in this study given the plant-dependent nature of our observations. This study highlights the role of plant species in moderating below-ground responses to future predicted changes to [CO(2)] and temperature and the importance of considering integrated plant-soil system responses. © 2012 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Motivational and Metacognitive Cultural Intelligence on the Study Abroad Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Racicot, Bernadette M.; Ferry, Diane L.

2016-01-01

The current study used a time-lagged design to examine the effects of Metacognitive and Motivational Cultural Intelligence (CQ) prior to studying abroad on the experiential behavior of students during their study abroad trip and their future interest in work and study abroad opportunities. Using Hayes' conditional process analysis, results…

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

PubMed

Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2012-04-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

PubMed Central

Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2013-01-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g., phenology), space (e.g., range) and self (e.g., physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesize their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. PMID:22257223

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

PubMed

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sigint for Anyone: The Growing Availability of Signals Intelligence in the Public Domain

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

this opinion today. We tested this viewpoint by conducting a market scan to seek examples of how new technologies, innovations, and behaviors are...future to understand the capabilities each provides, which audience or market each serves, and what implications each may have for government policy...effects. Finally, we identified areas for future study for U.S. and allied government leaders to respond to these changes. During our market scan, we

Attitudinal Responses to Changes in Noise Exposure in Residential Communities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horonjeff, Richard D.; Robert, William E.

1997-01-01

The purpose of this study is (1) to investigate the current body of knowledge encompassing two related topics: (a) to what extent can we reliably predict the change in people's attitudes in response to an abrupt change in noise exposure, and (b) after the change, is there a decay in the abrupt-change effect whereby people's attitudes slowly shift from their initial reaction to a steady-state value? and (2) to provide recommendations for any future work that may be needed. The literature search located 23 studies relating to one or both of the above topics. These prior studies shed considerable light on the current ability to predict initial reaction and decay effects. The literature makes one point very clear: Great care in both experimental design and data analysis is necessary to produce credible, convincing findings, both in the reanalysis of existing data and for planning future data acquisition and analysis studies. New airport studies must be designed to minimize nuisance variables and avoid past design features that may have introduced sufficient unexplained variance to mask sought after effects. Additionally, the study must be designed to tie in with previous investigations by incorporating similar survey questions and techniques.

Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.

PubMed

Adachi, Sachiho A; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yoshida, Ryuji; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ando, Kazuto; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

2017-12-20

Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.

Playing in parallel: the effects of multiplayer modes in active video game on motivation and physical exertion.

PubMed

Peng, Wei; Crouse, Julia

2013-06-01

Although multiplayer modes are common among contemporary video games, the bulk of game research focuses on the single-player mode. To fill the gap in the literature, the current study investigated the effects of different multiplayer modes on enjoyment, future play motivation, and the actual physical activity intensity in an active video game. One hundred sixty-two participants participated in a one-factor between-subject laboratory experiment with three conditions: (a) single player: play against self pretest score; (b) cooperation with another player in the same physical space; (c) parallel competition with another player in separated physical spaces. We found that parallel competition in separate physical spaces was the optimal mode, since it resulted in both high enjoyment and future play motivation and high physical intensity. Implications for future research on multiplayer mode and play space as well as active video game-based physical activity interventions are discussed.

Effects of Type and Strength of Force Feedback on Movement Time in a Target Selection Task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rorie, Robert Conrad; Vu, Kim-Phuong L.; Marayong, Panadda; Robles, Jose; Strybel, Thomas Z.; Battiste, Vernol

2013-01-01

Future cockpits will likely include new onboard technologies, such as cockpit displays of traffic information, to help support future flight deck roles and responsibilities. These new technologies may benefit from multimodal feedback to aid pilot information processing. The current study investigated the effects of multiple levels of force feedback on operator performance in an aviation task. Participants were presented with two different types of force feedback (gravitational and spring force feedback) for a discrete targeting task, with multiple levels of gain examined for each force feedback type. Approach time and time in target were recorded. Results suggested that the two highest levels of gravitational force significantly reduced approach times relative to the lowest level of gravitational force. Spring force level only affected time in target. Implications of these findings for the design of future cockpit displays will be discussed.

Anxiety-Linked Expectancy Bias across the Adult Lifespan

PubMed Central

Steinman, Shari A.; Smyth, Frederick L.; Bucks, Romola S.; MacLeod, Colin; Teachman, Bethany A.

2012-01-01

Anxiety is characterized by a negative expectancy bias, such that anxious individuals report negatively distorted expectations about the future. Contrary to anxiety, aging is characterized by a positivity effect, such that aging is associated with a tendency to attend to and remember positive information, relative to negative information. The current study integrates these literatures to examine anxiety- and age-linked biases when thinking about the future. Participants (N=1109) completed a procedure that involved reading valenced scenarios (positive, negative, or ambiguous) and then rating the likelihood of future valenced events occurring. Results suggest that aging and anxiety have independent and opposing effects. Heightened anxiety was associated with a reduced expectancy for positive events, regardless of the scenarios’ current emotional valence, whereas increased age was associated with an inflated expectancy for positive events, which was strongest when individuals were processing socially-relevant or negative scenarios. PMID:22861128

Pathophysiologic mechanisms of biomedical nanomaterials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Liming, E-mail: wangliming@ihep.ac.cn; Chen, Chunying, E-mail: chenchy@nanoctr.cn

Nanomaterials (NMs) have been widespread used in biomedical fields, daily consuming, and even food industry. It is crucial to understand the safety and biomedical efficacy of NMs. In this review, we summarized the recent progress about the physiological and pathological effects of NMs from several levels: protein-nano interface, NM-subcellular structures, and cell–cell interaction. We focused on the detailed information of nano-bio interaction, especially about protein adsorption, intracellular trafficking, biological barriers, and signaling pathways as well as the associated mechanism mediated by nanomaterials. We also introduced related analytical methods that are meaningful and helpful for biomedical effect studies in the future.more » We believe that knowledge about pathophysiologic effects of NMs is not only significant for rational design of medical NMs but also helps predict their safety and further improve their applications in the future. - Highlights: • Rapid protein adsorption onto nanomaterials that affects biomedical effects • Nanomaterials and their interaction with biological membrane, intracellular trafficking and specific cellular effects • Nanomaterials and their interaction with biological barriers • The signaling pathways mediated by nanomaterials and related biomedical effects • Novel techniques for studying translocation and biomedical effects of NMs.« less

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

PubMed

Hägg, Hanna Eriksson; Lyon, Steve W; Wällstedt, Teresia; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Claremar, Björn; Humborg, Christoph

2014-04-01

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Increasing Asian American women's research participation: the Asian grocery store-based cancer education program.

PubMed

Sadler, Georgia Robins; Ko, Celine M; Takahashi, Mitsuko; Ching, Christy R; Lee, Irene; Chuang, Gin C; Lee, Kathy K

2010-07-01

Research study participants with diverse characteristics produce the most generalizable outcomes, but recruiting heterogeneous samples is difficult. This pilot study tests whether Asian women (N=1079) with diverse language proficiencies, who were personally recruited to one study by a linguistically and culturally aligned recruiter, would enroll in another study with a single mailed invitation in English. The 134 participants in the second study represented 17.2% of those 779 women who had completed both baseline and follow-up surveys in the original study, making this characteristic the best predictor of future study participation. Of the 303 women in the first study who said they would be willing to participate in future studies, 17% (51) participated in the second study. Of the 733 who said they would not be willing to participate in future studies, 11% (83) participated. However, given the larger size of this group, researchers may recruit a greater absolute number of participants from it. While this rate of participation was less than the 25% rate achieved in the first study, the second study's single, mailed English language invitation was likely a barrier to participation. Securing IRB-approval to invite prior study participants from traditionally underrepresented communities to a new study is a strategy investigators can use to increase the diversity of their samples. Further research is warranted to determine whether Asian women who have participated in one study might also become effective recruiters for future studies.

The Effects of Hypertension on Cognitive Function in Children and Adolescents

PubMed Central

Cha, Stephen D.; Patel, Hiren P.; Hains, David S.; Mahan, John D.

2012-01-01

Hypertension (HTN) is found in about 3-4% of the pediatric population with long-term risks of end organ damage if untreated or poorly controlled. Although children with HTN are being more frequently screened for end organ damage (i.e., LVH), the cognitive effects of HTN and methods to screen for cognitive dysfunction have not been extensively explored. In recent years, there have been a small number of studies that have provided important insights that can guide future research in this area. These studies show that HTN can be associated with headaches, restlessness, sleep disturbance, anxiety, depression, decreased attention, and also poor executive functioning. By increasing the utilization of cognitive tests in hypertensive children and adolescents, important cognitive defects secondary to HTN may be detected. More research is needed in the area, and the results of future studies could have far reaching implications for long-term outcomes in hypertensive children and adolescents. PMID:22518186

Emotional intelligence and health students' well-being: A two-wave study with students of medicine, physiotherapy and nursing.

PubMed

Carvalho, Vânia Sofia; Guerrero, Eloísa; Chambel, Maria José

2018-04-01

This study aims to analyze the role of emotional intelligence as a predictor of health students' well-being (i.e., burnout and life satisfaction) over time. A longitudinal, 1 year lagged study was conducted at 2 points in time with a sample of 303 Spanish students of Medicine, Physiotherapy and Nursing. The results indicated that others' emotion appraisals and use of emotion had a positive direct effect on satisfaction with life, and self-emotion appraisals had a positive indirect effect on burnout. This research represents a contribution within the framework of health students' well-being concerns, providing significant practical implications for future consideration by health education institutions for graduate doctors, physiotherapists and nurses, who will present higher levels of emotional intelligence and, consequently, greater well-being and better quality care for future patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and Evaluation of a Systems Thinking Education Strategy for Baccalaureate Nursing Curriculum: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Fura, Louise A; Wisser, Kathleen Z

Nurse educators are charged to develop and evaluate curricula on systems thinking to prepare future nurses to provide safe nursing care. The goal of this pilot study was to design and evaluate a four-hour educational strategy that prepares future professional nurses to use systems thinking approaches in the delivery of safe patient care. This study exposed prelicensure baccalaureate nursing students to systems thinking principles, which included didactic and experiential activities. A descriptive design was used to determine the effect of an on-campus educational strategy. A paired samples t-test revealed statistical significance from pretest to posttest.

Pharmacotherapy for childhood obesity: present and future prospects

PubMed Central

Sherafat-Kazemzadeh, Roya; Yanovski, Susan Z.; Yanovski, Jack A.

2012-01-01

Pediatric obesity is a serious medical condition associated with significant comorbidities during childhood and adulthood. Lifestyle modifications are essential for treating children with obesity, yet many have insufficient response to improve health with behavioral approaches alone. This review summarizes the relatively sparse data on pharmacotherapy for pediatric obesity and presents information on obesity medications in development. Most previously studied medications demonstrated, at best, modest effects on body weight and obesity-related conditions. It is to be hoped that the future will bring new drugs targeting specific obesity phenotypes that will allow clinicians to use etiology-specific, and therefore more effective, anti-obesity therapies. PMID:22929210

Ethnicity moderates the effects of resources on adjustment of Jewish and Arab mothers of children diagnosed with cancer.

PubMed

Ben-Zur, Hasida; Khoury, Siwar Makhoul

2017-01-01

The study aimed to explore the adjustment of Jewish and Arab mothers of children diagnosed with cancer. Ninety-seven Jewish and 100 Arab mothers completed questionnaires assessing mastery, social support, and adjustment (psychological distress, quality of life, and future fears and hopes). Arab mothers were higher than Jewish mothers on distress and lower on social support and future hopes). Mastery and social support contributed independently to adjustment indices. Ethnicity moderated the effects of mastery and social support on adjustment. Ethnicity, mastery, and social support are important factors in mothers' adjustment to their child's cancer.

National differences in environmental concern and performance are predicted by country age.

PubMed

Hershfield, Hal E; Bang, H Min; Weber, Elke U

2014-01-01

There are obvious economic predictors of ability and willingness to invest in environmental sustainability. Yet, given that environmental decisions represent trade-offs between present sacrifices and uncertain future benefits, psychological factors may also play a role in country-level environmental behavior. Gott's principle suggests that citizens may use perceptions of their country's age to predict its future continuation, with longer pasts predicting longer futures. Using country- and individual-level analyses, we examined whether longer perceived pasts result in longer perceived futures, which in turn motivate concern for continued environmental quality. Study 1 found that older countries scored higher on an environmental performance index, even when the analysis controlled for country-level differences in gross domestic product and governance. Study 2 showed that when the United States was framed as an old country (vs. a young one), participants were willing to donate more money to an environmental organization. The findings suggest that framing a country as a long-standing entity may effectively prompt proenvironmental behavior.

Learning in context: identifying gaps in research on the transfer of medical communication skills to the clinical workplace.

PubMed

van den Eertwegh, Valerie; van Dulmen, Sandra; van Dalen, Jan; Scherpbier, Albert J J A; van der Vleuten, Cees P M

2013-02-01

In order to reduce the inconsistencies of findings and the apparent low transfer of communication skills from training to medical practice, this narrative review identifies some main gaps in research on medical communication skills training and presents insights from theories on learning and transfer to broaden the view for future research. Relevant literature was identified using Pubmed, GoogleScholar, Cochrane database, and Web of Science; and analyzed using an iterative procedure. Research findings on the effectiveness of medical communication training still show inconsistencies and variability. Contemporary theories on learning based on a constructivist paradigm offer the following insights: acquisition of knowledge and skills should be viewed as an ongoing process of exchange between the learner and his environment, so called lifelong learning. This process can neither be atomized nor separated from the context in which it occurs. Four contemporary approaches are presented as examples. The following shift in focus for future research is proposed: beyond isolated single factor effectiveness studies toward constructivist, non-reductionistic studies integrating the context. Future research should investigate how constructivist approaches can be used in the medical context to increase effective learning and transition of communication skills. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does the covariance structure matter in longitudinal modelling for the prediction of future CD4 counts?

PubMed

Taylor, J M; Law, N

1998-10-30

We investigate the importance of the assumed covariance structure for longitudinal modelling of CD4 counts. We examine how individual predictions of future CD4 counts are affected by the covariance structure. We consider four covariance structures: one based on an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process; one based on Brownian motion, and two derived from standard linear and quadratic random-effects models. Using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and from a simulation study, we show that there is a noticeable deterioration in the coverage rate of confidence intervals if we assume the wrong covariance. There is also a loss in efficiency. The quadratic random-effects model is found to be the best in terms of correctly calibrated prediction intervals, but is substantially less efficient than the others. Incorrectly specifying the covariance structure as linear random effects gives too narrow prediction intervals with poor coverage rates. Fitting using the model based on the integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic process is the preferred one of the four considered because of its efficiency and robustness properties. We also use the difference between the future predicted and observed CD4 counts to assess an appropriate transformation of CD4 counts; a fourth root, cube root and square root all appear reasonable choices.

A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku

2017-01-01

Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

Rewards and unique challenges faced by African-American custodial grandmothers: the importance of future planning.

PubMed

Crowther, Martha R; Huang, Chao-Hui Sylvia; Allen, Rebecca S

2015-01-01

This exploratory study examined the context and consequences of custodial grandparenting, along with attitudes and preferences regarding future planning among 22 African-American custodial grandmothers. A mixed-method research design was employed. Based on our integration of two theories regarding future planning and health behavior change, caregiving, emotional distress, religiosity and spirituality, and future planning were assessed using questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews. African-American custodial grandmothers (mean age M = 53.64, SD = 9.58) perceived their caregiving role as rewarding (72%) yet challenging (86%). More than 40% reported significant emotional distress (CES-D ≥ 16) that warrants clinical attention. Findings showed that while 64% of study participants had future plans regarding who will substitute in their caregiving role if they become incapacitated, only 9% had completed a living will. Three major themes emerged regarding custodial grandmothers' caregiving role which includes: (1) rewards; (2) challenges including feeling overwhelmed and health concerns; and (3) caregiving decisions including conflicts between 'My plan was…/put self on-hold' for grandchildren and difficulty with future planning. These themes highlighted the dynamics of caregiving across time, including current context and the ongoing process of decision-making. Findings suggest that while African-American custodial grandmothers find caregiving rewarding, they face unique challenges in contemplating and developing future plans. Custodial grandmothers think about substitute caregivers for their grandchildren but need assistance communicating a plan focused on their own needs for future care. Culturally sensitive interventions designed to facilitate effective utilization of future plans within this caregiver population are needed.

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

2018-01-01

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

First experiences of high-fidelity simulation training in junior nursing students in Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Suk Jeong; Kim, Sang Suk; Park, Young-Mi

2015-07-01

This study was conducted to explore first experiences of high-fidelity simulation training in Korean nursing students, in order to develop and establish more effective guidelines for future simulation training in Korea. Thirty-three junior nursing students participated in high-fidelity simulation training for the first time. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, data were collected from reflective journals and questionnaires of simulation effectiveness after simulation training. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze simulation effectiveness and content analysis was performed with the reflective journal data. Five dimensions and 31 domains, both positive and negative experiences, emerged from qualitative analysis: (i) machine-human interaction in a safe environment; (ii) perceived learning capability; (iii) observational learning; (iv) reconciling practice with theory; and (v) follow-up debriefing effect. More than 70% of students scored high on increased ability to identify changes in the patient's condition, critical thinking, decision-making, effectiveness of peer observation, and debriefing in effectiveness of simulation. This study reported both positive and negative experiences of simulation. The results of this study could be used to set the level of task difficulty in simulation. Future simulation programs can be designed by reinforcing the positive experiences and modifying the negative results. © 2014 The Authors. Japan Journal of Nursing Science © 2014 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

Simulated climate change conditions unveil the toxic potential of the fungicide pyrimethanil on the midge Chironomus riparius: a multigeneration experiment

PubMed Central

Müller, Ruth; Seeland, Anne; Jagodzinski, Lucas S; Diogo, Joao B; Nowak, Carsten; Oehlmann, Jörg

2012-01-01

Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0–22.7°C; 14.0–25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5–28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future. PMID:22408736

Effects of urbanization on the water quality of lakes in Eagan, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, M.A.; Payne, G.A.; Have, Mark A.

1980-01-01

Three phosphorus-prediction models developed during the study are applicable to shallow (less than about 12 feet), nonstratifying lakes and ponds. The data base was not sufficient to select an appropriate model to predict the effects of future loading from continuing urbanization on the deeper lakes.

Modeling The effect of elevated CO2 and climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the semi-arid Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in evapotranspiration demand due to global warming will have profound impact on irrigation water demand and agricultural productivity. In this study, effects of possible future anthropogenic climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was evaluated. The Penman-Monteith equation was ...

Effects of Individual and Group Contingency Interventions on Attendance in Adolescent Part-Time Employees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkovits, Shira Melody; Sturmey, Peter; Alvero, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

This study examined the effects of individual and group monetary contingencies on the attendance of adolescent part-time employees. Attendance increased in both individual and group contingency phases; however staff questionnaire responses indicated a preference for the individual contingencies. Future research should consider staff acceptability…

76 FR 65999 - Effective Date for Swap Regulation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-25

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Chapter 1 Effective Date for Swap Regulation AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Notice of proposed amendment. SUMMARY: On July 14, 2011, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (``CFTC'' or the ``Commission'') issued a final order (``July 14 Order...

What Are the Strength of Recommendations and Methodologic Reporting in Health Economic Studies in Orthopaedic Surgery?

PubMed

Makhni, Eric C; Steinhaus, Michael E; Swart, Eric; Bozic, Kevin J

2015-10-01

Cost-effectiveness research is an increasingly used tool in evaluating treatments in orthopaedic surgery. Without high-quality primary-source data, the results of a cost-effectiveness study are either unreliable or heavily dependent on sensitivity analyses of the findings from the source studies. However, to our knowledge, the strength of recommendations provided by these studies in orthopaedics has not been studied. We asked: (1) What are the strengths of recommendations in recent orthopaedic cost-effectiveness studies? (2) What are the reasons authors cite for weak recommendations? (3) What are the methodologic reporting practices used by these studies? The titles of all articles published in six different orthopaedic journals from January 1, 2004, through April 1, 2014, were scanned for original health economics studies comparing two different types of treatment or intervention. The full texts of included studies were reviewed to determine the strength of recommendations determined subjectively by our study team, with studies providing equivocal conclusions stemming from a lack or uncertainty surrounding key primary data classified as weak and those with definitive conclusions not lacking in high-quality primary data classified as strong. The reasons underlying a weak designation were noted, and methodologic practices reported in each of the studies were examined using a validated instrument. A total of 79 articles met our prespecified inclusion criteria and were evaluated in depth. Of the articles included, 50 (63%) provided strong recommendations, whereas 29 (37%) provided weak recommendations. Of the 29 studies, clinical outcomes data were cited in 26 references as being insufficient to provide definitive conclusions, whereas cost and utility data were cited in 13 and seven articles, respectively. Methodologic reporting practices varied greatly, with mixed adherence to framing, costs, and results reporting. The framing variables included clearly defined intervention, adequate description of a comparator, study perspective clearly stated, and reported discount rate for future costs and quality-adjusted life years. Reporting costs variables included economic data collected alongside a clinical trial or another primary source and clear statement of the year of monetary units. Finally, results reporting included whether a sensitivity analysis was performed. Given that a considerable portion of orthopaedic cost-effectiveness studies provide weak recommendations and that methodologic reporting practices varied greatly among strong and weak studies, we believe that clinicians should exercise great caution when considering the conclusions of cost-effectiveness studies. Future research could assess the effect of such cost-effectiveness studies in clinical practice, and whether the strength of recommendations of a study's conclusions has any effect on practice patterns. Given the increasing use of cost-effectiveness studies in orthopaedic surgery, understanding the quality of these studies and the reasons that limit the ability of studies to provide more definitive recommendations is critical. Highlighting the heterogeneity of methodologic reporting practices will aid clinicians in interpreting the conclusions of cost-effectiveness studies and improve future research efforts.

Preoperative steroids for hearing preservation cochlear implantation: A review.

PubMed

Kuthubutheen, Jafri; Smith, Leah; Hwang, Euna; Lin, Vincent

2016-01-01

Preoperative steroids have been shown to be beneficial in reducing the hearing loss associated with cochlear implantation. This review article discusses the mechanism of action, effects of differing routes of administration, and side effects of steroids administered to the inner ear. Studies on the role of preoperative steroids in animal and human studies are also examined and future directions for research in this area are discussed.

A Closer Look at the Output Hypothesis: The Effect of Pushed Output on Noticing and Inductive Learning of the Spanish Future Tense

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, Victoria

2014-01-01

This study empirically tested the noticing function of the output hypothesis (Swain, 1993, 1995, 1998) and explored the relationship between noticing and learning by comparing the effects of the production of output to exposure to textually enhanced input. The present study is a conceptual replication of Izumi (2002); however, Izumi examined a…

Future Time Perspective and Awareness of Age-Related Change: Examining their Role in Predicting Psychological Well-Being

PubMed Central

Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

2016-01-01

This study examined how two distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime – future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC) – are associated with one another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the U.S. and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40–98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. PMID:27243764

Future time perspective and awareness of age-related change: Examining their role in predicting psychological well-being.

PubMed

Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

2016-09-01

This study examined how 2 distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime-future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC)-are associated with another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging, and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the United States and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40-98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Geospatial intelligence and visual classification of environmentally observed species in the Future Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbab-Zavar, B.; Chakravarthy, A.; Sabeur, Z. A.

2012-04-01

The rapid development of advanced smart communication tools with good quality and resolution video cameras, audio and GPS devices in the last few years shall lead to profound impacts on the way future environmental observations are conducted and accessed by communities. The resulting large scale interconnections of these "Future Internet Things" form a large environmental sensing network which will generate large volumes of quality environmental observations and at highly localised spatial scales. This enablement in environmental sensing at local scales will be of great importance to contribute in the study of fauna and flora in the near future, particularly on the effect of climate change on biodiversity in various regions of Europe and beyond. The Future Internet could also potentially become the de facto information space to provide participative real-time sensing by communities and improve our situation awarness of the effect of climate on local environments. In the ENVIROFI(2011-2013) Usage Area project in the FP7 FI-PPP programme, a set of requirements for specific (and generic) enablers is achieved with the potential establishement of participating community observatories of the future. In particular, the specific enablement of interest concerns the building of future interoperable services for the management of environmental data intelligently with tagged contextual geo-spatial information generated by multiple operators in communities (Using smart phones). The classification of observed species in the resulting images is achieved with structured data pre-processing, semantic enrichement using contextual geospatial information, and high level fusion with controlled uncertainty estimations. The returned identification of species is further improved using future ground truth corrections and learning by the specific enablers.

Ocean acidification may aggravate social-ecological trade-offs in coastal fisheries.

PubMed

Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F; Schmidt, Jörn O; Kapaun, Ute

2015-01-01

Ocean Acidification (OA) will influence marine ecosystems by changing species abundance and composition. Major effects are described for calcifying organisms, which are significantly impacted by decreasing pH values. Direct effects on commercially important fish are less well studied. The early life stages of fish populations often lack internal regulatory mechanisms to withstand the effects of abnormal pH. Negative effects can be expected on growth, survival, and recruitment success. Here we study Norwegian coastal cod, one of the few stocks where such a negative effect was experimentally quantified, and develop a framework for coupling experimental data on OA effects to ecological-economic fisheries models. In this paper, we scale the observed physiological responses to the population level by using the experimentally determined mortality rates as part of the stock-recruitment relationship. We then use an ecological-economic optimization model, to explore the potential effect of rising CO2 concentration on ecological (stock size), economic (profits), consumer-related (harvest) and social (employment) indicators, with scenarios ranging from present day conditions up to extreme acidification. Under the assumptions of our model, yields and profits could largely be maintained under moderate OA by adapting future fishing mortality (and related effort) to changes owing to altered pH. This adaptation comes at the costs of reduced stock size and employment, however. Explicitly visualizing these ecological, economic and social tradeoffs will help in defining realistic future objectives. Our results can be generalized to any stressor (or stressor combination), which is decreasing recruitment success. The main findings of an aggravation of trade-offs will remain valid. This seems to be of special relevance for coastal stocks with limited options for migration to avoid unfavorable future conditions and subsequently for coastal fisheries, which are often small scale local fisheries with limited operational ranges.

Evaluating Cost-effectiveness of Interventions That Affect Fertility and Childbearing: How Health Effects Are Measured Matters.

PubMed

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Brandeau, Margaret L

2015-10-01

Current guidelines for economic evaluations of health interventions define relevant outcomes as those accruing to individuals receiving interventions. Little consensus exists on counting health impacts on current and future fertility and childbearing. Our objective was to characterize current practices for counting such health outcomes. We developed a framework characterizing health interventions with direct and/or indirect effects on fertility and childbearing and how such outcomes are reported. We identified interventions spanning the framework and performed a targeted literature review for economic evaluations of these interventions. For each article, we characterized how the potential health outcomes from each intervention were considered, focusing on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with fertility and childbearing. We reviewed 108 studies, identifying 7 themes: 1) Studies were heterogeneous in reporting outcomes. 2) Studies often selected outcomes for inclusion that tend to bias toward finding the intervention to be cost-effective. 3) Studies often avoided the challenges of assigning QALYs for pregnancy and fertility by instead considering cost per intermediate outcome. 4) Even for the same intervention, studies took heterogeneous approaches to outcome evaluation. 5) Studies used multiple, competing rationales for whether and how to include fertility-related QALYs and whose QALYs to include. 6) Studies examining interventions with indirect effects on fertility typically ignored such QALYs. 7) Even recent studies had these shortcomings. Limitations include that the review was targeted rather than systematic. Economic evaluations inconsistently consider QALYs from current and future fertility and childbearing in ways that frequently appear biased toward the interventions considered. As the Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine updates its guidelines, making the practice of cost-effectiveness analysis more consistent is a priority. Our study contributes to harmonizing methods in this respect. © The Author(s) 2015.

Evaluating Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions that Affect Fertility and Childbearing: How Health Effects are Measured Matters

PubMed Central

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D.; Brandeau, Margaret L.

2015-01-01

Background Current guidelines for economic evaluations of health interventions define relevant outcomes as those accruing to individuals receiving interventions. Little consensus exists on counting health impacts on current and future fertility and childbearing. Objective To characterize current practices for counting such health outcomes. Design We developed a framework characterizing health interventions with direct and/or indirect effects on fertility and childbearing and how such outcomes are reported. We identified interventions spanning the framework and performed a targeted literature review for economic evaluations of these interventions. For each article, we characterized how the potential health outcomes from each intervention were considered, focusing on QALYs associated with fertility and childbearing. Results We reviewed 108 studies, identifying seven themes: 1) Studies were heterogeneous in reporting outcomes. 2) Studies often selected outcomes for inclusion that tend to bias toward finding the intervention to be cost-effective. 3) Studies often avoided the challenges of assigning QALYs for pregnancy and fertility by instead considering cost per intermediate outcome. 4) Even for the same intervention, studies took heterogeneous approaches to outcome evaluation. 5) Studies employed multiple, competing rationales for whether and how to include fertility-related QALYs and whose QALYs to include. 6) Studies examining interventions with indirect effects on fertility typically ignored such QALYs. 7) Even recent studies had these shortcomings. Limitations The review was targeted rather than systematic. Conclusions Economic evaluations inconsistently consider QALYs from current and future fertility and childbearing in ways that frequently appear biased towards the interventions considered. As the Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine updates its guidelines, making the practice of cost-effectiveness analysis more consistent is a priority. Our study contributes to harmonizing methods in this respect. PMID:25926281

Mounting for Fabrication, Metrology, and Assembly of Full Shell Grazing Incidence Optics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roche, Jacqueline M.; Gubarev, Mikhail V.; O'Dell, Stephen L.; Kolodziejczak, Jeffery; Weisskopf, Martin C.; Ramsey, Brian D.; Elsner, Ronald F.

2014-01-01

Future x-ray telescopes will likely require lightweight mirrors to attain the large collecting areas needed to accomplish the science objectives. Understanding and demonstrating processes now is critical to achieving sub-arcsecond performance in the future. Consequently, designs not only of the mirrors but of fixtures for supporting them during fabrication, metrology, handling, assembly, and testing must be adequately modeled and verified. To this end, MSFC is using finite-element modeling to study the effects of mounting on full-shell grazing-incidence mirrors, during all processes leading to flight mirror assemblies. Here we report initial results of this study.

Toward a theory of discontinuous career transition: investigating career transitions necessitated by traumatic life events.

PubMed

Haynie, J Michael; Shepherd, Dean

2011-05-01

Career researchers have focused on the mechanisms related to career progression. Although less studied, situations in which traumatic life events necessitate a discontinuous career transition are becoming increasingly prevalent. Employing a multiple case study method, we offer a deeper understanding of such transitions by studying an extreme case: soldiers and Marines disabled by wartime combat. Our study highlights obstacles to future employment that are counterintuitive and stem from the discontinuous and traumatic nature of job loss. Effective management of this type of transitioning appears to stem from efforts positioned to formulate a coherent narrative of the traumatic experience and thus to reconstruct foundational assumptions about the world, humanity, and self. These foundational assumptions form the basis for enacting future-orientated career strategies, such that progress toward establishing a new career path is greatest for those who can orientate themselves away from the past (trauma), away from the present (obstacles to a new career), and toward an envisioned future career positioned to confer meaning and purpose through work.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Research in the Rehabilitation Unit Presents Challenges to Nurse Researchers.

PubMed

Rose, Mary Ann; Neil, Janice A; Castles, Ricky; Pokorny, Marie; Watkins, Frank; Hand, Mark

Gathering data from patients on a rehabilitation unit poses challenges for nurse researchers. A case study is presented that describes ways the researchers attempted to meet these challenges while conducting their study. The case study presents the approaches that the investigators took to undertake the study and then described the ways in which these approaches could have been improved. Their successes and failures are described. Suggestions are made for future investigators. Clinical nursing research is required to develop an evidence base for practice in the rehabilitation unit. An analysis of the challenges and possible methods of overcoming these challenges is useful to both future investigators and nurses in practice to insure that studies can be carried out effectively.

Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United States in future summertime PM2.5 pollution. Therefore, it is important to consider the relative contributions of emissions scenarios, climate conditions, and LRT to the major PM2.5 components in future U.S. air quality regulation.

The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Rei Liu; J. Michael Foreman; Raymond M. Sheffield

1999-01-01

Expanding human populations may have important effects on the availability of timber from private lands in the South. To examine the effects of development on timber supply, the authors compared the density of populations and various site variables with expert opinions on the future location of commercial timberland for a study site in Virginia. Population density is a...

Different involvement of medial prefrontal cortex and dorso-lateral striatum in automatic and controlled processing of a future conditioned stimulus.

PubMed

Pérez-Díaz, Francisco; Díaz, Estrella; Sánchez, Natividad; Vargas, Juan Pedro; Pearce, John M; López, Juan Carlos

2017-01-01

Recent studies support the idea that stimulus processing in latent inhibition can vary during the course of preexposure. Controlled attentional mechanisms are said to be important in the early stages of preexposure, while in later stages animals adopt automatic processing of the stimulus to be used for conditioning. Given this distinction, it is possible that both types of processing are governed by different neural systems, affecting differentially the retrieval of information about the stimulus. In the present study we tested if a lesion to the dorso-lateral striatum or to the medial prefrontal cortex has a selective effect on exposure to the future conditioned stimulus (CS). With this aim, animals received different amounts of exposure to the future CS. The results showed that a lesion to the medial prefrontal cortex enhanced latent inhibition in animals receiving limited preexposure to the CS, but had no effect in animals receiving extended preexposure to the CS. The lesion of the dorso-lateral striatum produced a decrease in latent inhibition, but only in animals with an extended exposure to the future conditioned stimulus. These results suggest that the dorsal striatum and medial prefrontal cortex play essential roles in controlled and automatic processes. Automatic attentional processes appear to be impaired by a lesion to the dorso-lateral striatum and facilitated by a lesion to the prefrontal cortex.

Gratitude, abstinence, and alcohol use disorders: Report of a preliminary finding.

PubMed

Krentzman, Amy R

2017-07-01

Gratitude is a central component of addiction recovery for many, yet it has received scant attention in addiction research. In a sample of 67 individuals entering abstinence-based alcohol-use-disorder treatment, this study employed gratitude and abstinence variables from sequential assessments (baseline, 6months, 12months) to model theorized causal relationships: gratitude would increase pre-post treatment and gratitude after treatment would predict greater percent days abstinent 6months later. Neither hypothesis was supported. This unexpected result led to the theory that gratitude for sobriety was the construct of interest; therefore, the association between gratitude and future abstinence would be positive among those already abstinent. Thus, post-treatment abstinence was tested as a moderator of the effect of gratitude on future abstinence: this effect was statistically significant. For those who were abstinent after treatment, the relationship between gratitude and future abstinence was positive; for those drinking most frequently after treatment, the relationship between gratitude and future abstinence was negative. In this preliminary study, dispositional tendency to affirm that there is much to be thankful for appeared to perpetuate the status quo-frequent drinkers with high gratitude were drinking frequently 6months later; abstinent individuals with high gratitude were abstinent 6months later. Gratitude exercises might be contraindicated for clients who are drinking frequently and have abstinence as their treatment goal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Different involvement of medial prefrontal cortex and dorso-lateral striatum in automatic and controlled processing of a future conditioned stimulus

PubMed Central

Pérez-Díaz, Francisco; Díaz, Estrella; Sánchez, Natividad; Vargas, Juan Pedro; Pearce, John M.

2017-01-01

Recent studies support the idea that stimulus processing in latent inhibition can vary during the course of preexposure. Controlled attentional mechanisms are said to be important in the early stages of preexposure, while in later stages animals adopt automatic processing of the stimulus to be used for conditioning. Given this distinction, it is possible that both types of processing are governed by different neural systems, affecting differentially the retrieval of information about the stimulus. In the present study we tested if a lesion to the dorso-lateral striatum or to the medial prefrontal cortex has a selective effect on exposure to the future conditioned stimulus (CS). With this aim, animals received different amounts of exposure to the future CS. The results showed that a lesion to the medial prefrontal cortex enhanced latent inhibition in animals receiving limited preexposure to the CS, but had no effect in animals receiving extended preexposure to the CS. The lesion of the dorso-lateral striatum produced a decrease in latent inhibition, but only in animals with an extended exposure to the future conditioned stimulus. These results suggest that the dorsal striatum and medial prefrontal cortex play essential roles in controlled and automatic processes. Automatic attentional processes appear to be impaired by a lesion to the dorso-lateral striatum and facilitated by a lesion to the prefrontal cortex. PMID:29240804

Neogeomorphology, prediction, and the anthropic landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haff, P. K.

The surface of the earth is undergoing profound change due to human impact. By some measures the level of human impact is comparable to the effects of major classical geomorphic processes such as fluvial sediment transport. This change is occurring rapidly, has no geologic precedent, and may represent an irreversible transition to a new and novel landscape with which we have no experience. For these reasons prediction of future landscape evolution will be of increasing importance. The combination of physical and social forces that drive modern landscape change represents the Anthropic Force. Neogeomorphology is the study of the Anthropic Force and its present and likely future effects on the landscape. Unique properties associated with the Anthropic Force include consciousness, intention and design. These properties support the occurrence of nonclassical geomorphic phenomena, such as landscape planning, engineering, and management. The occurrence of short time-scale phenomena induced by anthropic landscape change, the direct effects of this change on society, and the ability to anticipate and intentionally influence the future trajectory of the global landscape underscore the importance of prediction in a neogeomorphic world.

Effects of episodic future thinking on discounting: Personalized age-progressed pictures improve risky long-term health decisions.

PubMed

Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Jarmolowicz, David P

2016-03-01

Many everyday choices are associated with both delayed and probabilistic outcomes. The temporal attention hypothesis suggests that individuals' decision making can be improved by focusing attention on temporally distal events and implies that environmental manipulations that bring temporally distal outcomes into focus may alter an individual's degree of discounting. One such manipulation, episodic future thinking, has shown to lower discount rates; however, several questions remain about the applicability of episodic future thinking to domains other than delay discounting. The present experiments examine the effects of a modified episodic-future-thinking procedure in which participants viewed age-progressed computer-generated images of themselves and answered questions related to their future, on probability discounting in the context of both a delayed health gain and loss. Results indicate that modified episodic future thinking effectively altered individuals' degree of discounting in the predicted directions and demonstrate the applicability of episodic future thinking to decision making of socially significant outcomes. © 2015 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Gender differences in responses towards anti-smoking messages and policy implementation among future doctors in Malaysia.

PubMed

Yasin, Siti Munira; Ismail, Nurhuda; Noor, Norizal Mohd; Mohd Azman, Mohd Shafiq; Taib, Hanisah; Jusop, Junainah Mat; Salaudin, Nur Atirah

2013-01-01

Medical students' views may provide some direction for future policy considerations. The aim of this study was to assess gender differences in future doctors' receptiveness to currently implemented anti-smoking messages and the effectiveness of those messages. We administered a questionnaire to all students at a medical university in Malaysia, asking how frequently they noted anti- smoking policies, anti-smoking campaigns, and anti-smoking messages in schools. In addition, the questionnaire investigated most effective methods to convey these messages. A total of 522 (59.7%) students responded. Students were least likely to approve of total bans on cigarettes and increasing the price of cigarettes, and most likely to approve of bans on use of cigarettes in public places and sales to individuals less than 16 years old. Approval of total bans on cigarettes was more common in female students than in males OR=0.39 (95%CI: 0.18- 0.86). Furthermore, compared to the female students, the male students thought that printed media; OR=2.32 (95%CI: 1.31-4.10), radio; OR=1.93 (95%CI: 1.15-3.22) and the internet; OR=1.96 (95%CI: 1.15-3.33) were very effective at delivering anti-smoking messages. Gender differences existed in the future doctors' perception of the effectiveness of anti-smoking initiatives. Taking this gender difference into account may increase the receipt of anti-smoking messages in adolescents.

Feasibility study of a latchup-based particle detector exploiting commercial CMOS technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabrielli, A.; Matteucci, G.; Civera, P.; Demarchi, D.; Villani, G.; Weber, M.

2009-12-01

The stimulated ignition of latchup effects caused by external radiation has so far proved to be a hidden hazard. Here this effect is described as a novel approach to detect particles by means of a solid-state device susceptible to latchup effects. In addition, the device can also be used as a circuit for reading sensors devices, leaving the capability of sensing to external sensors. The paper first describes the state-of-the-art of the project and its development over the latest years, then the present and future studies are proposed. An elementary cell composed of two transistors connected in a thyristor structure is shown. The study begins using traditional bipolar transistors since the latchup effect is originated as a parasitic circuit composed of such devices. Then, an equivalent circuit built up of MOS transistors is exploited, resulting an even more promising and challenging configuration than that obtained via bipolar transistors. As the MOS transistors are widely used at present in microelectronics devices and sensors, a latchup-based cell is proposed as a novel structure for future applications in particle detection, amplification of signal sensors and radiation monitoring.

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WEATHER AND WATER

EPA Science Inventory

Information regarding weather and hydrological processes and how they may change in the future is available from a variety of dynamically downscaled climate models. Current studies are helping to improve the use of such models for regional climate impact studies by testing the s...

Exposure prediction approaches used in air pollution epidemiology studies: Keyfindings and future recommendations

EPA Science Inventory

Many epidemiologic studies of the health effects of exposure to ambient air pollution use measurements from central-site monitors as their exposure estimate. However, measurements from central-site monitors may lack the spatial and temporal resolution required to capture exposure...

Does acceptance of power distance influence propensities for problematic Internet use? Evidence from a cross-cultural study.

PubMed

Montag, Christian; Duke, Éilish; Sha, Peng; Zhou, Min; Sindermann, Cornelia; Li, Mei

2016-12-01

Several studies suggest that Asian countries are particularly afflicted by problematic Internet use (PIU). The present study investigates whether individual differences in the acceptance of power distance can be linked to overuse of the Internet in Germany and in China. Power distance has been discussed as an essential dimension on which Asian and Western societies differ. In the present study, we investigate two large non-clinical samples from Germany (n = 297) and China (n = 556) to address this question. Both in Germany and in China, high acceptance of power distance was positively associated with PIU. These effects were more pronounced in China compared with Germany. Moreover, the observed effects were stronger in males compared with females. Clearly, these findings are just a starting point and need to be replicated in the future. Clinical populations and a further important difference variable - collectivism - also merit consideration in future work. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Life-cycle models of saving and the effect of the timing of divorce on retirement economic well-being.

PubMed

Fethke, C C

1989-05-01

The long-term effect of the current high rate of divorce upon the future economic status of individuals has not been thoroughly analyzed. This study reviews the retirement, precautionary, and bequest motives for saving, then evaluates how marriage dissolution may (a) decrease the family's savings rate, (b) cause shifts in the family's portfolio to assets with lower rates of return, and (c) destroy or deplete existing family assets. Whether divorce interrupts the savings process or destroys assets, it is unlikely that most individuals will be able to save enough in later life to overcome the loss. The long-term effect may well be that, in future years, we will recognize a new category of elderly poor, those who have experienced the dissolution of their marriage.

The effects of temporal perspective on college students' energy drink consumption.

PubMed

Kim, Jarim; Anagondahalli, Deepa

2017-09-01

Consideration of future consequences (CFC) describes the extent to which individuals consider potential future outcomes of their present behaviors. This personality trait has been found to predict repetitive health behaviors. Research is yet to explore the role of health beliefs, which may mediate the relationship between CFC and self-directed health behaviors. Thus, this study examined how CFC affects energy drink-related health beliefs and consumption behavior. A cross-sectional correlational online survey with 1,050 college students was conducted. Key measures include the CFC Scale, health belief measures, and current energy drink consumption pattern. CFC was associated with energy drink consumption as well as several health beliefs. CFC had indirect effects on energy drink consumption through health beliefs, including perceived severity of consuming energy drinks (indirect effect estimate = -.191, 95% confidence interval [CI] [-.271, -.122]), perceived benefits of avoiding energy drinks (indirect effect estimate = -.108, 95% CI [-.174, -.050]), and perceived barriers in abstaining from energy drinks (energy level-related barriers, indirect effect estimate = -.274, 95% CI [-.387, -.181]; and socialization-related barriers, indirect effect estimate = .152, 95% CI [.078, .249]). As the first study to examine CFC's indirect effects on a self-directed health behavior through health beliefs, this study extended CFC's applicability by examining its role in the context of college students' energy drink consumption. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Graphene as a long-term metal oxidation barrier: worse than nothing.

PubMed

Schriver, Maria; Regan, William; Gannett, Will J; Zaniewski, Anna M; Crommie, Michael F; Zettl, Alex

2013-07-23

Anticorrosion and antioxidation surface treatments such as paint or anodization are a foundational component in nearly all industries. Graphene, a single-atom-thick sheet of carbon with impressive impermeability to gases, seems to hold promise as an effective anticorrosion barrier, and recent work supports this hope. We perform a complete study of the short- and long-term performance of graphene coatings for Cu and Si substrates. Our work reveals that although graphene indeed offers effective short-term oxidation protection, over long time scales it promotes more extensive wet corrosion than that seen for an initially bare, unprotected Cu surface. This surprising result has important implications for future scientific studies and industrial applications. In addition to informing any future work on graphene as a protective coating, the results presented here have implications for graphene's performance in a wide range of applications.

Prayer and health: review, meta-analysis, and research agenda.

PubMed

Masters, Kevin S; Spielmans, Glen I

2007-08-01

This article reviews the empirical research on prayer and health and offers a research agenda to guide future studies. Though many people practice prayer and believe it affects their health, scientific evidence is limited. In keeping with a general increase in interest in spirituality and complementary and alternative treatments, prayer has garnered attention among a growing number of behavioral scientists. The effects of distant intercessory prayer are examined by meta-analysis and it is concluded that no discernable effects can be found. The literature regarding frequency of prayer, content of prayer, and prayer as a coping strategy is subsequently reviewed. Suggestions for future research include the conduct of experimental studies based on conceptual models that include precise operationally defined constructs, longitudinal investigations with proper measure of control variables, and increased use of ecological momentary assessment techniques.

Stress resilience in early marriage: can practice make perfect?

PubMed

Neff, Lisa A; Broady, Elizabeth F

2011-11-01

As all couples experience stressful life events, addressing how couples adapt to stress is imperative for understanding marital development. Drawing from theories of stress inoculation, which suggest that the successful adaptation to moderately stressful events may help individuals develop a resilience to future stress, the current studies examined whether experiences with manageable stressors early in the marriage may serve to make the relationship more resilient to future stress. In Study 1, 61 newlywed couples provided data regarding their stressful life events, relationship resources (i.e., observed problem-solving behaviors), and marital satisfaction at multiple points over 2½ years. Results revealed that among spouses displaying more effective problem-solving behaviors, those who experienced moderate stress during the early months of marriage exhibited fewer future stress spillover effects and reported greater increases in felt efficacy than did spouses who had less experience with early stress. Study 2 examined stress resilience following the transition to parenthood in a new sample of 50 newlywed couples. Again, spouses who experienced moderate stress during the early months of marriage and had good initial relationship resources (i.e., observed support behaviors) reported greater marital adjustment following the transition to parenthood than did spouses who had good initial resources but less prior experience coping with stress. Together, results indicate that entering marriage with better relationship resources may not be sufficient to shield marital satisfaction from the detrimental effects of stress; rather, couples may also need practice in using those resources to navigate manageable stressful events.

Levodopa is Not a Useful Treatment for Lesch-Nyhan Disease

PubMed Central

Visser, Jasper E.; Schretlen, David J.; Bloem, Bastiaan R.; Jinnah, Hyder A.

2012-01-01

Lesch-Nyhan disease (LND) is characterized by dystonia, cognitive abnormalities, and self-injurious behavior. No effective therapies are available. LND is associated with a presynaptic dopaminergic deficit, but the reported effects of dopamine replacement therapy are conflicting. The current prospective open-label study assesses the effects of levodopa on both neurological and behavioral features of LND. All 6 study participants discontinued levodopa early, due to lack of effect and sometimes worsening of motor function. The results provide important clues for pathophysiological mechanisms and suggestions for future treatment options. PMID:21506156

Factors contributing to nursing leadership: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cummings, Greta; Lee, How; Macgregor, Tara; Davey, Mandy; Wong, Carol; Paul, Linda; Stafford, Erin

2008-10-01

Leadership practices of health care managers can positively or negatively influence outcomes for organizations, providers and, ultimately, patients. Understanding the factors that contribute to nursing leadership is fundamental to ensuring a future supply of nursing leaders who can positively influence outcomes for health care providers and patients. The purpose of this study was to systematically review the multidisciplinary literature to examine the factors that contribute to nursing leadership and the effectiveness of educational interventions in developing leadership behaviours among nurses. The search strategy began with 10 electronic databases (e.g. CINAHL, Medline). Published quantitative studies were included that examined the factors that contribute to leadership or the development of leadership behaviours in nurse leaders. Quality assessments, data extraction and analysis were completed on all included studies. A total of 27,717 titles/abstracts were screened resulting in 26 included manuscripts reporting on 24 studies. Twenty leadership factors were examined and categorized into four groups - behaviours and practices of individual leaders, traits and characteristics of individual leaders, influences of context and practice settings, and leader participation in educational activities. Specific behaviours and practices of individual leaders, such as taking on or practising leadership styles, skills and roles, were reported as significantly influencing leadership in eight studies. Traits and characteristics of individual leaders were examined in six studies with previous leadership experience (three studies) and education levels (two of three studies) having positive effects on observed leadership. Context and practice settings had a moderate influence on leadership effectiveness (three of five studies). Nine studies that examined participation in leadership development programs all reported significant positive influences on observed leadership. These findings suggest that leadership can be developed through specific educational activities, and by modelling and practising leadership competencies. However, the relatively weak study designs provide limited evidence for specific factors that could increase the effectiveness of current nursing leadership or guide the identification of future nurse leaders. Robust theory and research on interventions to develop and promote viable nursing leadership for the future are needed to achieve the goal of developing healthy work environments for health care providers and optimizing care for patients.

Will the Oxygen-Phosphorus Paradigm Persist? - Expert Views of the Future of Management and Restoration of Eutrophic Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nygrén, Nina A.; Tapio, Petri; Horppila, Jukka

2017-11-01

In the age of climate change, the demand and lack of pure water challenges many communities. Substantial amount of effort is put in every year to manage and restore degraded lakes while the long-term effects of those efforts are only poorly known or monitored. Oxygenation, or aeration, is used extensively for the restoration of eutrophic lakes, although many studies question whether this process improves the status of the lakes in the long-term. The desired effect of oxygenation is based on paradigmatic theories that, in the light of recent literature, might not be adequate when long-term improvements are sought. This article canvasses expert views on the feasibility of the `oxygen-phosphorus paradigm' as well as the future of the management and restoration of eutrophic lakes, based on an international, two-rounded, expert panel survey (Delphi study), employing 200 freshwater experts from 33 nationalities, contacted at three conferences on the topic. The conclusion is that the oxygen-phosphorus paradigm seems to be rather persistent. The experts considered oxygenation to be a valid short-term lake restoration method, but not without harmful side-effects. In addition, experts' low level of trust in the adequacy of the scientific knowledge on the effects of restorations and in the use of the scientific knowledge as a basis of choice of restoration methods, could be signs of a paradigm shift towards an outlook emphasizing more effective catchment management over short-term restorations. The expert panel also anticipated that reducing external nutrient loads from both point and diffuse sources will succeed in the future.

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

2013-01-01

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

Time perspective and weight management behaviors in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes: a mediational analysis.

PubMed

Hall, Peter A; Fong, Geoffrey T; Cheng, Alice Y

2012-12-01

The primary objective of the current study was to examine the extent to which domain-specific time perspective predicts weight management behaviors (dietary behavior and physical activity) among those newly diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes. A secondary objective was to test potential mediators of the hypothesized effect (behavioral intention, self-efficacy and control beliefs). A total of 204 adults newly diagnosed (≤6 months) with Type 2 diabetes participated in the study, which included a baseline assessment of domain-general and domain-specific time perspective, as well as strength of intention to perform two weight-management behaviors (dietary choice and physical activity); both weight-management behaviors were assessed again at 6 month follow-up. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed a prospective association between domain-specific time perspective and uptake of weight management behaviors. Individuals with newly diagnosed T2DM possessing a future-oriented time perspective reported making less frequent fatty food choices and greater increases in physical activity over the 6-month follow-up interval. These effects were selectively mediated by intention strength, and not competing social cognitive variables. For both behaviors, the total effects and meditational models were robust to adjustments for demographics, body composition and disease variables. A future-oriented time perspective is prospectively associated with superior uptake of weight management behaviors among those with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes. The facilitating effect of future-oriented thinking appears to occur via enhanced strength of intentions to perform weight management behaviors.

Driver Behavior and Performance with Augmented Reality Pedestrian Collision Warning: An Outdoor User Study.

PubMed

Kim, Hyungil; Gabbard, Joseph L; Anon, Alexandre Miranda; Misu, Teruhisa

2018-04-01

This article investigates the effects of visual warning presentation methods on human performance in augmented reality (AR) driving. An experimental user study was conducted in a parking lot where participants drove a test vehicle while braking for any cross traffic with assistance from AR visual warnings presented on a monoscopic and volumetric head-up display (HUD). Results showed that monoscopic displays can be as effective as volumetric displays for human performance in AR braking tasks. The experiment also demonstrated the benefits of conformal graphics, which are tightly integrated into the real world, such as their ability to guide drivers' attention and their positive consequences on driver behavior and performance. These findings suggest that conformal graphics presented via monoscopic HUDs can enhance driver performance by leveraging the effectiveness of monocular depth cues. The proposed approaches and methods can be used and further developed by future researchers and practitioners to better understand driver performance in AR as well as inform usability evaluation of future automotive AR applications.

Video Feedback in Key Word Signing Training for Preservice Direct Support Staff.

PubMed

Rombouts, Ellen; Meuris, Kristien; Maes, Bea; De Meyer, Anne-Marie; Zink, Inge

2016-04-01

Research has demonstrated that formal training is essential for professionals to learn key word signing. Yet, the particular didactic strategies have not been studied. Therefore, this study compared the effectiveness of verbal and video feedback in a key word signing training for future direct support staff. Forty-nine future direct support staff were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 key word signing training programs: modeling and verbal feedback (classical method [CM]), additional video feedback (+ViF), and additional video feedback and photo reminder (+ViF/R). Signing accuracy and training acceptability were measured 1 week after and 7 months after training. Participants from the +ViF/R program achieved significantly higher signing accuracy compared with the CM group. Acceptability ratings did not differ between any of the groups. Results suggest that at an equal time investment, the programs containing more training components were more effective. Research on the effect of rehearsal on signing maintenance is warranted.

Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Nico; McGlade, Christophe; Hilaire, Jérôme; Ekins, Paul

2018-01-01

Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2-4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308-10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.

Flash Rust & Waterjetting Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DORSH, P.M..

Certain areas of the primary wall in the AY-101 tank annulus are being cleaned with a remotely operated waterjet. There is some concern on how it will effect the surface of the tank wall after cleaning and how to prevent rust and corrosion from developing on the wall in the future. This study addresses the cause and effects of flash rust, which typically develops on steel surfaces after the waterjetting process.

The role of incretin-based therapies in prediabetes: a review.

PubMed

Ahmadieh, Hala; Azar, Sami T

2014-12-01

Prediabetes, a high-risk state for future development of diabetes, is prevalent globally. Abnormalities in the incretin axis are important in the progression of B-cell failure in type 2 diabetes. Incretin based therapy was found to improve B cell mass and glycaemic control in addition to having multiple beneficial effects on the systolic and diastolic blood pressure, weight loss in addition to their other beneficial effects on the liver and cardiovascular system. In prediabetes, several well-designed preventive trials have shown that lifestyle and pharmacologic interventions such as metformin, thiazolidinediones (TZD), acarbose and, nateglinide and orlistat, are effective in reducing diabetes development. In recent small studies, incretin based therapy (DPP IV inhibitors and GLP-1 agonists) have also been extended to patients with prediabetes since it was shown to better preserve B-cell function and mass in animal studies and in clinical trials and it was also shown to help maintain good long term metabolic control. Because of the limited studies and clinical experience, their side effects and costs currently guidelines do not recommend incretin-based therapies as an option for treatment in patients with prediabetes. With future clinical trials and studies they may be recommended for patients with impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance. Copyright © 2014 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a Single High Fat Meal Challenge to Unmask Latent Cardiopulmonary Effects of Air Pollution Exposure in Rats

EPA Science Inventory

Stress tests are used clinically to determine the presence of underlying disease and predict future cardiovascular risk. In previous studies, we used treadmill exercise stress in rats to unmask the priming effects of air pollution inhalation. Other day-to-day activities stress th...

Parental Divorce and Family Functioning: Effects on Differentiation Levels of Young Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Patrick; Throngren, Jill M.; Smith, Adina J.

2001-01-01

Study examines the effect of parental divorce and various dimensions of functioning in the family of origin on young adult development. Results indicate that parental divorce and family functioning significantly affect differentiation levels of young adults. Implications of the results for counselors and future researchers are provided. (Contains…

Spectral effects of dehydration on phyllosilicates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruckenthal, E. A.; Singer, R. B.

1987-01-01

Six phyllosilicates were progressively dehydrated under controlled conditions in an effort to study the spectral effects of their dehydration. The spectra obtained at each level of hydration provide information that may be used in future spectroscopic observations of the planets, as well as a data set which compliments the existing body of terrestrial soil knowledge.

Perception and Needs in Health Education Curriculum among School Nurses as Health Teachers in Korea

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Gyu Young; Ham, Ok Kyung

2013-01-01

The study investigated perceived effectiveness and perceived barriers to health education curriculum targeting school nurses as health teachers in Korea. A total of 741 health teachers participated. The questionnaire included perceived effectiveness and perceived barriers to health education curriculum, future roles of health teachers, and needs…

What Questions Should We ask About the Health Effect of Mars Dust? Lessons from the Lunar Dust Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerschmann, R. L.

2017-06-01

The toxicology of lunar dust has been studied over the last decade and standards set by NASA for exposure. This summary reviews that data and proposes to reapply the strategy employed there to future research on the health effects of Mars dust.

Emerald ash borer aftermath forests: the future of ash ecosystems

Treesearch

Kathleen S. Knight; Daniel A. Herms; John Cardina; Robert Long; Kamal J.K. Gandhi; Catharine P. Herms

2011-01-01

The effects of emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis) on forest ecosystems are being studied through a collaborative research program between the U.S. Forest Service and The Ohio State University. We are monitoring ash demographics, understory light availability, EAB population dynamics, native and non-native plants, and effects of ash...

Schedule-Induced and Operant Mechanisms that Influence Response Variability: A Review and Implications for Future Investigations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Ronald; Sturmey, Peter; Fields, Lanny

2007-01-01

Response variability, a fundamental characteristic of behavior, may be in some cases an induced effect of reinforcement schedules. Research on schedule-induced response variability has shown that continuous reinforcement results in less variability than intermittent reinforcement schedules. Studies on the effects of intermittency of reinforcement,…

Cropping and tillage systems effects on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

Cover crops and tillage in a mature Merlot vineyard affect yields and cluster weight but not nutrition

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Permanent cover crops are commonly used in vineyard floor management because of their beneficial effects to soil and vine health, but studies evaluating their competitive effects on vines have been conducted primarily in non-irrigated vineyards. Future air quality regulations could mandate the use o...

The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Perceptions of Learning Organization Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haeffner, Melissa; Leone, Deanna; Coons, Laura; Chermack, Thomas

2012-01-01

Scenario planning is often used by organizations to think about future uncertainties. However, what it does in terms of changing perceptions is difficult to assess and quantify. To address this need, this article builds on previous studies documenting the effectiveness of scenario planning. Specifically, this article contributes to the data on…

The Effects of Alaska's Economic Recession on Anchorage Households.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, Karen Pyle; And Others

1988-01-01

This publication is based on two surveys of the same Anchorage, Alaska households taken in June and November 1987 to study the effects of a strong recession of the previous two years. Different kinds of households were queried about household incomes, housing status, members' occupations, moving plans, and expectations about the financial future.…

Responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2016-01-01

Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the...

The Use of the CPI to Ascertain Differences between More and Less Effective Student Paraprofessional Helpers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

German, Steven C.; Cottle, William C.

1981-01-01

A study of student paraprofessional peer counselors showed the California Psychological Inventory (CPI) to be useful in rating the effectiveness of Freshman Assistants. Results from individual criterion measures can also be applied to results from combinations of these measures. Future research should control for demographic influences. (JAC)

Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Morphological Changes on Tidal Hydrodynamics in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passeri, D. L.; Hagen, S. C.; Plant, N. G.; Bilskie, M. V.

2014-12-01

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal environments with increased erosion, inundation of wetlands, and changes in hydrodynamic patterns. Planning for the effects of SLR requires understanding the coupled response of SLR, geomorphic and hydrodynamic processes; this will provide crucial information for managers to make informed decisions for human and natural communities. Evaluating changes in tidal hydrodynamics under future scenarios is a key aspect for understanding the effects of SLR on coastal systems; tidal hydrodynamics influence inundation, circulation patterns, sediment transport processes, shoreline erosion, and productivity of marshes and other species. This study evaluates the dynamic effects of SLR and morphologic change on tidal hydrodynamics along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast from Mississippi to the Florida panhandle. A large-scale hydrodynamic model is used to simulate astronomic tides under present (circa 2005), and future conditions (circa 2050 and 2100). The model is modified with specific SLR scenarios, morphology, and shorelines that represent the conditions at each of the time periods. Future sea levels for the years 2050 and 2100 are determined using the Parris et al. (2012) projections. To make projections of future morphology, a Bayesian Network (BN) is implemented. The BN is used to define relationships between forcing mechanisms and coastal responses based on long-term relative SLR, mean wave height, long-term shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, geomorphic setting and coastal slope. Probabilistic predictions of future shoreline positions and dune heights are developed for each SLR scenario for the years 2050 and 2100. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is then updated to reflect the future morphologic changes. Comparison of present and future conditions illustrates the hydrodynamic response of the system to the changing landscape. Changes in variables such as harmonic tidal constituents, tidal range, tidal prism, tidal datums, circulation patterns and inundation areas are examined. This provides a better understanding of the physical processes of the current state of the NGOM and gives insight into how future SLR and coastal landscape changes may affect hydrodynamics within the NGOM estuary systems.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

Methodological issues in studies of air pollution and reproductive health.

PubMed

Woodruff, Tracey J; Parker, Jennifer D; Darrow, Lyndsey A; Slama, Rémy; Bell, Michelle L; Choi, Hyunok; Glinianaia, Svetlana; Hoggatt, Katherine J; Karr, Catherine J; Lobdell, Danelle T; Wilhelm, Michelle

2009-04-01

In the past decade there have been an increasing number of scientific studies describing possible effects of air pollution on perinatal health. These papers have mostly focused on commonly monitored air pollutants, primarily ozone (O(3)), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and various indices of perinatal health, including fetal growth, pregnancy duration, and infant mortality. While most published studies have found some marker of air pollution related to some types of perinatal outcomes, variability exists in the nature of the pollutants and outcomes associated. Synthesis of the findings has been difficult for various reasons, including differences in study design and analysis. A workshop was held in September 2007 to discuss methodological differences in the published studies as a basis for understanding differences in study findings and to identify priorities for future research, including novel approaches for existing data. Four broad topic areas were considered: confounding and effect modification, spatial and temporal exposure variations, vulnerable windows of exposure, and multiple pollutants. Here we present a synopsis of the methodological issues and challenges in each area and make recommendations for future study. Two key recommendations include: (1) parallel analyses of existing data sets using a standardized methodological approach to disentangle true differences in associations from methodological differences among studies; and (2) identification of animal studies to inform important mechanistic research gaps. This work is of critical public health importance because of widespread exposure and because perinatal outcomes are important markers of future child and adult health.

Buildings of the Future Scoping Study: A Framework for Vision Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Na; Goins, John D.

2015-02-01

The Buildings of the Future Scoping Study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office, seeks to develop a vision for what U.S. mainstream commercial and residential buildings could become in 100 years. This effort is not intended to predict the future or develop a specific building design solution. Rather, it will explore future building attributes and offer possible pathways of future development. Whether we achieve a more sustainable built environment depends not just on technologies themselves, but on how effectively we envision the future and integrate these technologies in a balanced way that generates economic, social,more » and environmental value. A clear, compelling vision of future buildings will attract the right strategies, inspire innovation, and motivate action. This project will create a cross-disciplinary forum of thought leaders to share their views. The collective views will be integrated into a future building vision and published in September 2015. This report presents a research framework for the vision development effort based on a literature survey and gap analysis. This document has four objectives. First, it defines the project scope. Next, it identifies gaps in the existing visions and goals for buildings and discusses the possible reasons why some visions did not work out as hoped. Third, it proposes a framework to address those gaps in the vision development. Finally, it presents a plan for a series of panel discussions and interviews to explore a vision that mitigates problems with past building paradigms while addressing key areas that will affect buildings going forward.« less

Back to the Future: Past and Future Era-Based Schematic Support and Associative Memory for Prices in Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Castel, Alan D.; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M.

2014-01-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from “turning back the clock,” younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PMID:24128073

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Testing an alternate informed consent process.

PubMed

Yates, Bernice C; Dodendorf, Diane; Lane, Judy; LaFramboise, Louise; Pozehl, Bunny; Duncan, Kathleen; Knodel, Kendra

2009-01-01

One of the main problems in conducting clinical trials is low participation rate due to potential participants' misunderstanding of the rationale for the clinical trial or perceptions of loss of control over treatment decisions. The objective of this study was to test an alternate informed consent process in cardiac rehabilitation participants that involved the use of a multimedia flip chart to describe a future randomized clinical trial and then asked, hypothetically, if they would participate in the future trial. An attractive and inviting visual presentation of the study was created in the form of a 23-page flip chart that included 24 color photographs displaying information about the purpose of the study, similarities and differences between the two treatment groups, and the data collection process. We tested the flip chart in 35 cardiac rehabilitation participants. Participants were asked if they would participate in this future study on two occasions: immediately after the description of the flip chart and 24 hours later, after reading through the informed consent document. Participants were also asked their perceptions of the flip chart and consent process. Of the 35 participants surveyed, 19 (54%) indicated that they would participate in the future study. No participant changed his or her decision 24 hours later after reading the full consent form. The participation rate improved 145% over that of an earlier feasibility study where the recruitment rate was 22%. Most participants stated that the flip chart was helpful and informative and that the photographs were effective in communicating the purpose of the study. Participation rates could be enhanced in future clinical trials by using a visual presentation to explain and describe the study as part of the informed consent process. More research is needed to test alternate methods of obtaining informed consent.

Effects of School Principals' Leadership Behaviors: A Comparison between Taiwan and Japan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Yi-Gean; Cheng, Jao-Nan; Sato, Mikio

2017-01-01

This study is a cross-national research in school leadership behaviors. Research subjects in this study include primary and secondary school teachers in Taiwan and northeastern Japan. By referring to "School leadership of the future," this study summarized that school leadership is working toward a team approach to instruction…

The Evolution of Superintendents as Instructional Leaders: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cantu, Blanca S.

2013-01-01

This study examined the critical aspects of oversight that superintendents must employ to improve instruction. It was an analysis of superintendents as instructional leaders. In this study, we looked at four school district superintendents who have demonstrated instructionally effective school districts. The study was based on a three-year period,…

Prevention, adaptation, and threat denial: flooding experiences in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Zaalberg, Ruud; Midden, Cees; Meijnders, Anneloes; McCalley, Teddy

2009-12-01

Delta areas such as the Netherlands are more and more at risk of future flooding due to global climate change. Motivating residents living in flood-prone areas to effectively cope with local floods may lead to minimization of material losses and loss of life. The aim of this research was to investigate whether the extent to which residents had been exposed to flooding in the past was a key factor in motivating residents to effectively cope with future flooding. We also focused on the psychological variables that mediated this relationship. We conducted a survey (N = 516) among flood victims and nonvictims. We assessed subjective experiences due to past flooding, affective and cognitive appraisals, and coping responses. Results show that victims reported stronger emotions (negative and positive), and the receipt of more social support due to past flooding than did nonvictims. Moreover, victims worry more about future flooding, perceive themselves as more vulnerable to future flooding, perceive the consequences of future flooding as more severe, and have stronger intentions to take adaptive actions in the future than nonvictims. Structural equation modeling reveals that the latter effect was fully mediated by specific experiences and appraisals. Insights into factors and processes that have the potential to motivate residents to effectively cope with future floods may prove helpful in developing interventions to inform residents how to act effectively in case of an imminent flood.

The effects of corporate social responsibility on employees' affective commitment: a cross-cultural investigation.

PubMed

Mueller, Karsten; Hattrup, Kate; Spiess, Sven-Oliver; Lin-Hi, Nick

2012-11-01

This study investigated the moderating effects of several Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness (GLOBE) cultural value dimensions on the relationship between employees' perceptions of their organization's social responsibility and their affective organizational commitment. Based on data from a sample of 1,084 employees from 17 countries, results showed that perceived corporate social responsibility (CSR) was positively related to employees' affective commitment (AC), after controlling for individual job satisfaction and gender as well as for nation-level differences in unemployment rates. In addition, several GLOBE value dimensions moderated the effects of CSR on AC. In particular, perceptions of CSR were more positively related to AC in cultures higher in humane orientation, institutional collectivism, ingroup collectivism, and future orientation and in cultures lower in power distance. Implications for future CSR research and cross-cultural human resources management are discussed. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of a residential radon remediation programme in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Kennedy, C A; Gray, A M; Denman, A R; Phillips, P S

1999-12-01

As residential radon programmes of identification and remediation have proceeded, so questions have been raised about their costs and benefits. This study presents a generalizable model for estimating the cost-effectiveness of a radon mitigation programme using the methodological framework now considered appropriate in the economic evaluation of health interventions. Its use will help to inform future discussion of radon remediation and lung cancer prevention programmes. Data from Northamptonshire were analysed, resulting in a societal cost-effectiveness ratio of Pounds Sterling 13250 per life-year gained in 1997. The percentage of houses found to be over the action level, and the percentage of householders who decide to remediate are shown to be important parameters for the cost-effectiveness analysis. Questions are raised about the particular importance of perspective in this type of analysis and suggestions are made for future research directions.

When will collective action be effective? Violent and non-violent protests differentially influence perceptions of legitimacy and efficacy among sympathizers.

PubMed

Thomas, Emma F; Louis, Winnifred R

2014-02-01

Collective action will be effective in achieving broader social change goals to the extent that it influences public opinion yet the degree to which collective action "works" in changing opinion is rarely studied. Experiment 1 (n = 158) showed that, consistent with a logic of strategic non-violence, non-violent collective action more effectively conveys a sense of the illegitimacy of the issue and the efficacy of the group, thereby promoting support for future non-violent actions. Experiment 2 (n = 139) explored the moderating role of allegations of corruption. A social context of corruption effectively undermined the efficacy and legitimacy of non-violent collective action, relative to support for violence, thereby promoting (indirectly) support for future extreme action. The implications of this research, for the logic of strategic non-violence and mobilizing supportive public opinion, are discussed.

Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

2016-01-01

Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

Testing the effect of risk on intertemporal choice in the Chinese cultural context.

PubMed

Sun, Yan; Li, Shu

2011-01-01

Previous studies using Western samples have found that introducing uncertainty to an intertemporal choice decreases the degree of discounting future rewards. The authors of this article examined the effect of risk on intertemporal choice using Chinese participants and found that respondents preferred the smaller but sooner (SS) outcome to the larger but later (LL) one in the presence of risk, which indicates that risk increases rather than decreases the degree of discounting future rewards. Thus, variations in response patterns between different cultural groups suggest that culture may play an important role in intertemporal choice and researchers should delve into this topic from an emic rather than an etic perspective.

Coupling mechanism of electric vehicle and grid under the background of smart grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Mingyu; Li, Dezhi; Chen, Rongjun; Shu, Han; He, Yongxiu

2018-02-01

With the development of smart distribution technology in the future, electric vehicle users can not only charge reasonably based on peak-valley price, they can also discharge electricity into the power grid to realize their economic benefit when it’s necessary and thus promote peak load shifting. According to the characteristic that future electric vehicles can discharge, this paper studies the interaction effect between electric vehicles and the grid based on TOU (time of use) Price Strategy. In this paper, four scenarios are used to compare the change of grid load after implementing TOU Price Strategy. The results show that the wide access of electric vehicles can effectively reduce peak and valley difference.

PIC Simulation of Laser Plasma Interactions with Temporal Bandwidths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsung, Frank; Weaver, J.; Lehmberg, R.

2015-11-01

We are performing particle-in-cell simulations using the code OSIRIS to study the effects of laser plasma interactions in the presence of temperal bandwidths under conditions relevant to current and future shock ignition experiments on the NIKE laser. Our simulations show that, for sufficiently large bandwidth, the saturation level, and the distribution of hot electrons, can be effected by the addition of temporal bandwidths (which can be accomplished in experiments using smoothing techniques such as SSD or ISI). We will show that temporal bandwidth along play an important role in the control of LPI's in these lasers and discuss future directions. This work is conducted under the auspices of NRL.

Effect of descriptive information and experience on automation reliance.

PubMed

Yuviler-Gavish, Nirit; Gopher, Daniel

2011-06-01

The present research addresses the issue of reliance on decision support systems for the long-term (DSSLT), which help users develop decision-making strategies and long-term planning. It is argued that providing information about a system's future performance in an experiential manner, as compared with a descriptive manner, encourages users to increase their reliance level. Establishing appropriate reliance on DSSLT is contingent on the system developer's ability to provide users with information about the system's future performance. A sequence of three studies contrasts the effect on automation reliance of providing descriptive information versus experience for DSSLT with two different positive expected values of recommendations. Study I demonstrated that when automation reliance was determined solely on the basis of description, it was relatively low, but it increased significantly when a decision was made after experience with 50 training simulations. Participants were able to learn to increase their automation reliance levels when they encountered the same type of recommendation again. Study 2 showed that the absence of preliminary descriptive information did not affect the automation reliance levels obtained after experience. Study 3 demonstrated that participants were able to generalize their learning about increasing reliance levels to new recommendations. Using experience rather than description to give users information about future performance in DSSLT can help increase automation reliance levels. Implications for designing DSSLT and decision support systems in general are discussed.

Do future thoughts reflect personal goals? Current concerns and mental time travel into the past and future.

PubMed

Cole, Scott N; Berntsen, Dorthe

2016-01-01

Our overriding hypothesis was that future thinking would be linked with goals to a greater extent than memories; conceptualizing goals as current concerns (i.e., uncompleted personal goals). We also hypothesized that current-concern-related events would differ from non-current-concern-related events on a set of phenomenological characteristics. We report novel data from a study examining involuntary and voluntary mental time travel using an adapted laboratory paradigm. Specifically, after autobiographical memories or future thoughts were elicited (between participants) in an involuntary and voluntary retrieval mode (within participants), participants self-generated five current concerns and decided whether each event was relevant or not to their current concerns. Consistent with our hypothesis, compared with memories, a larger percentage of involuntary and voluntary future thoughts reflected current concerns. Furthermore, events related to current concerns differed from non-concern-related events on a range of cognitive, representational, and affective phenomenological measures. These effects were consistent across temporal direction. In general, our results agree with the proposition that involuntary and voluntary future thinking is important for goal-directed cognition and behaviour.

Post-intervention effects on screen behaviours and mediating effect of parental regulation: the HEalth In Adolescents study – a multi-component school-based randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To improve effectiveness of future screen behaviour interventions, one needs to know whether an intervention works via the proposed mediating mechanisms and whether the intervention is equally effective among subgroups. Parental regulation is identified as a consistent correlate of screen behaviours, but prospective evidence as well as the mediation role of parental regulation is largely lacking. This study investigated post-intervention main effects on screen behaviours in the HEIA-intervention – a Norwegian school-based multiple-behaviour study, as well as mediation effects of parental regulation by adolescents’ and parents’ report. In addition, moderating effects of gender and weight status on the intervention and mediating effects were explored. Methods Participating schools were randomized to control (n = 25) or intervention (n = 12) condition. Adolescents (n = 908 Control; 510 Intervention) self-reported their weekday and weekend TV-viewing and computer/game-use. Change in adolescents’ behaviours was targeted through school and parents. Adolescents, mothers (n = 591 Control; 244 Interventions) and fathers (n = 469 Control; 199 Intervention) reported parental regulation of the screen behaviours post-intervention (at 20 month). The product-of-coefficient test using linear regression analysis was conducted to examine main and mediating effects. Results There was no intervention effect on the screen behaviours in the total sample. Gender moderated effect on weekend computer/game-use, while weight status moderated the effect on weekday TV-viewing and computer/game-use. Stratified analyses showed a small favourable intervention effect on weekday TV-viewing among the normal weight. Parental regulation did not mediate change in the screen behaviours. However, stronger parental regulation was associated with less TV-viewing and computer/game-use with effects being conditional on adolescents’ versus parental reports. Parental regulation of the screen behaviours, primarily by the parental report, was associated with change in the respective behaviours. Conclusion Multiple behaviour intervention may not affect all equally well, and the effect may differ by weight status and gender. In future interventions parents should be encouraged to regulate their adolescents’ TV-viewing and computer/game-use on both weekdays and weekends as parental regulation was identified as a determinant of these screen behaviours. However, future intervention studies may need to search for more effective intervention strategies targeting parental regulation. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN98552879 PMID:24568125

Possible Effects of the Department of Defense Acting as a Buyer on the Derivatives Futures Market

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Buyer on the Derivatives Futures Market By: Thomas R. Bowman Evan P. Wright June 2009 Advisors: Douglas Brook Nayantara...Possible Effects of the Department of Defense Acting as a Buyer on the Derivatives Futures Market 6. AUTHOR(S) Thomas R. Bowman and Evan P. Wright 5...DoD) participation as a buyer in the commercial futures market for derivatives. The idea that DoD should participate in derivatives trading has

Efficiency and economics of large scale hydrogen liquefaction. [for future generation aircraft requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, C. R.

1975-01-01

Liquid hydrogen is being considered as a substitute for conventional hydrocarbon-based fuels for future generations of commercial jet aircraft. Its acceptance will depend, in part, upon the technology and cost of liquefaction. The process and economic requirements for providing a sufficient quantity of liquid hydrogen to service a major airport are described. The design is supported by thermodynamic studies which determine the effect of process arrangement and operating parameters on the process efficiency and work of liquefaction.

Water Resources Study for Metropolitan Chester Creek Basin, Pennsylvania.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-09-01

premium is the second most effective method of calling attention to the flood risk . The first is a flood itself. Presumably the cost will encourage the...communities in the Basin. Due to the high risks in- volved people should strive to keep the coverage current and at the maximim level allowed. Permanent Flood...result of future development of upstream areas, and the eight lives lost in the flood of record and future risk of the loss of lives. I have determined

Virtual Planning at Work: A Tour of NASA Future Flight Central

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClenahen, Jim; Dorighi, Nancy S. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

FutureFlight Central will permit integration of tomorrow's technologies in a risk-free simulation of any airport, airfield, and tower cab environment. The facility provides an opportunity for airlines to mitigate passenger delays by fine tuning airport hub operations, gate management and ramp movement procedures. It also allows airport managers an opportunity to study effects of various improvements at their airports. Finally, it enables air traffic controllers to provide feedback and to become familiar with new airport operations and technologies before final installation.

Audiological Rehabilitation for Facilitating Hearing Aid Use: A Review.

PubMed

Aazh, Hashir; Moore, Brian C J

2017-03-01

This article reviews and critically analyzes the design of studies on the effect of audiological rehabilitation (AR) programs on hearing aid (HA) outcomes, in order to guide future research. The design of this study was a narrative review. Studies were included in the review if they were randomized controlled trials that investigated the effects of AR on HA use and outcome between 2000 and 2016. Seven articles that met the inclusion criteria were included in the review. Most used educational rather than counseling approaches. Although educational AR programs seem to be useful in enhancing the use of communication strategies, there is limited evidence for their effect on HA use and self-perceived hearing handicap. More research is needed in this field. Future studies should (1) investigate the efficacy of AR interventions based on counseling and empathetic listening as opposed to or in addition to educational interventions, (2) use stricter criteria to include only a subpopulation of patients who do not get on well with their HAs, (3) measure the amount of HA use via data-logging and self-report questionnaires, and (4) use a matching comparison intervention for patients in the control group. American Academy of Audiology

Photocatalytic effects of titanium dioxide nanoparticles on aquatic organisms-Current knowledge and suggestions for future research.

PubMed

Haynes, Vena N; Ward, J Evan; Russell, Brandon J; Agrios, Alexander G

2017-04-01

Nanoparticles are entering natural systems through product usage, industrial waste and post-consumer material degradation. As the production of nanoparticles is expected to increase in the next decade, so too are predicted environmental loads. Engineered metal-oxide nanomaterials, such as titanium dioxide, are known for their photocatalytic capabilities. When these nanoparticles are exposed to ultraviolet radiation in the environment, however, they can produce radicals that are harmful to aquatic organisms. There have been a number of studies that have reported the toxicity of titanium dioxide nanoparticles in the absence of light. An increasing number of studies are assessing the interactive effects of nanoparticles and ultraviolet light. However, most of these studies neglect environmentally-relevant experimental conditions. For example, researchers are using nanoparticle concentrations and light intensities that are too high for natural systems, and are ignoring water constituents that can alter the light field. The purpose of this review is to summarize the current knowledge of the photocatalytic effects of TiO 2 nanoparticles on aquatic organisms, discuss the limitations of these studies, and outline environmentally-relevant factors that need to be considered in future experiments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Face Adaptation Effects: Reviewing the Impact of Adapting Information, Time, and Transfer

PubMed Central

Strobach, Tilo; Carbon, Claus-Christian

2013-01-01

The ability to adapt is essential to live and survive in an ever-changing environment such as the human ecosystem. Here we review the literature on adaptation effects of face stimuli to give an overview of existing findings in this area, highlight gaps in its research literature, initiate new directions in face adaptation research, and help to design future adaptation studies. Furthermore, this review should lead to better understanding of the processing characteristics as well as the mental representations of face-relevant information. The review systematizes studies at a behavioral level in respect of a framework which includes three dimensions representing the major characteristics of studies in this field of research. These dimensions comprise (1) the specificity of adapting face information, e.g., identity, gender, or age aspects of the material to be adapted to (2) aspects of timing (e.g., the sustainability of adaptation effects) and (3) transfer relations between face images presented during adaptation and adaptation tests (e.g., images of the same or different identities). The review concludes with options for how to combine findings across different dimensions to demonstrate the relevance of our framework for future studies. PMID:23760550

Supply chain analysis of e-tailing versus retailing operation - a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sameer; Tiffany, Maryellen; Vaidya, Salil

2016-07-01

The swift growth of e-commerce or e-tailing as a consumer retail channel has made it a serious competitor to traditional retail channels and is changing consumers' purchasing behaviour. The purpose of this case study, based on Target and Amazon.com, is to analyse the attributes of traditional retailing, e-tailing, and hybrid supply chain models to form conclusions about the feasibility of an idealised supply chain model for the future. An integrated and generalised modelling framework is used that incorporates Six Sigma - define, measure, analyse, improve, control methodology leveraging various tools, including process flow maps, cause and effect diagram, performance efficiency metrics, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), and Monte Carlo simulation. Based on this analysis and research, the conclusion is that the idealised supply chain of the future may evolve into a hybrid supply chain, which includes both e-tail and retail channels. The main recommendations from this study include assessing the risks of migrating to such a hybrid supply chain and to leverage the recommended actions provided in the hybrid FMEA. To facilitate more effective and mature processes, this study can guide researchers in exhaustive empirical evaluations of hybrid supply chains, gather experiences and lessons learned for practitioners.

Ultra-Low Sulfur Gasoline Emissions Study

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Understanding the effects of gasoline sulfur level on the in-use fleet is important for assessing emissions inventories and impacts of future policy decisions. Test fuels were two non-ethanol gasolines with properties typical of certification fuel.

Bioinformatic analyses to select phenotype affecting polymorphisms in HTR2C gene.

PubMed

Piva, Francesco; Giulietti, Matteo; Baldelli, Luisa; Nardi, Bernardo; Bellantuono, Cesario; Armeni, Tatiana; Saccucci, Franca; Principato, Giovanni

2011-08-01

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in serotonin related genes influence mental disorders, responses to pharmacological and psychotherapeutic treatments. In planning association studies, researchers that want to investigate new SNPs have to select some among a large number of candidates. Our aim is to guide researchers in the selection of the most likely phenotype affecting polymorphisms. Here, we studied serotonin receptor 2C (HTR2C) SNPs because, till now, only relatively few of about 2000 are investigated. We used the most updated and assessed bioinformatic tools to predict which variations can give rise to biological effects among 2450 HTR2C SNPs. We suggest 48 SNPs that are worth considering in future association studies in the field of psychiatry, psychology and pharmacogenomics. Moreover, our analyses point out the biological level probably affected, such as transcription, splicing, miRNA regulation and protein structure, thus allowing to suggest future molecular investigations. Although few association studies are available in literature, their results are in agreement with our predictions, showing that our selection methods can help to guide future association studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

study, storm surge, tide, waves, wind, atmospheric pressure, and currents were the dominant storm responses computed. The effect of sea level change on...coastal storm hazards and vulnerability nationally (USACE 2015). NACCS goals also included evaluating the effect of future sea level change (SLC) on...the computed high-fidelity responses included storm surge, astronomical tide, waves, wave effects on water levels, storm duration, wind, currents

Neural and Behavioral Correlates of PTSD and Alcohol Use

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

of GABAergic interneurons known as intercalated (ITC) cells located between the BLA and CeA [69], providing an effective means of gating CeA...across different experiments. Future studies directly comparing the effects of 5- HT manipulations within the different amygdala subregions across... effects make them poorly tolerated. Furthermore, because atypical antipsychotics also have high affinity for 5- HT receptors, the contribution of DA

Gender Differences in Scientific Literacy of HKPISA 2006: A Multidimensional Differential Item Functioning and Multilevel Mediation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Kwan Yin

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of gender differences of 15-year-old students on scientific literacy and their impacts on students’ motivation to pursue science education and careers (Future-oriented Science Motivation) in Hong Kong. The data for this study was collected from the Program for International Student Assessment in Hong Kong (HKPISA). It was carried out in 2006. A total of 4,645 students were randomly selected from 146 secondary schools including government, aided and private schools by two-stage stratified sampling method for the assessment. HKPISA 2006, like most of other large-scale international assessments, presents its assessment frameworks in multidimensional subscales. To fulfill the requirements of this multidimensional assessment framework, this study deployed new approaches to model and investigate gender differences in cognitive and affective latent traits of scientific literacy by using multidimensional differential item functioning (MDIF) and multilevel mediation (MLM). Compared with mean score difference t-test, MDIF improves the precision of each subscales measure at item level and the gender differences in science performance can be accurately estimated. In the light of Eccles et al (1983) Expectancy-value Model of Achievement-related Choices (Eccles’ Model), MLM examines the pattern of gender effects on Future-oriented Science Motivation mediated through cognitive and affective factors. As for MLM investigation, Single-Group Confirmatory Factor Analysis (Single-Group CFA) was used to confirm the applicability and validity of six affective factors which was, originally prepared by OECD. These six factors are Science Self-concept, Personal Value of Science, Interest in Science Learning, Enjoyment of Science Learning, Instrumental Motivation to Learn Science and Future-oriented Science Motivation. Then, Multiple Group CFA was used to verify measurement invariance of these factors across gender groups. The results of Single-Group CFA confirmed that five out of the six affective factors except Interest in Science Learning had strong psychometric properties in the context of Hong Kong. Multiple-group CFA results also confirmed measurement invariance of these factors across gender groups. The findings of this study suggest that 15-year-old school boys consistently outperformed girls in most of the cognitive dimensions except identifying scientific issues. Similarly, boys have higher affective learning outcomes than girls. The effect sizes of gender differences in affective learning outcomes are relatively larger than that of cognitive one. The MLM study reveals that gender effects on Future-oriented Science Motivation mediate through affective factors including Science Self-concept, Enjoyment of Science Learning, Interest in Science Learning, Instrumental Motivation to Learn Science and Personal Value of Science. Girls are significantly affected by the negative impacts of these mediating factors and thus Future-oriented Science Motivation. The MLM results were consistent with the predications by Eccles’ Model. Overall, the CFA and MLM results provide strong support for cross-cultural validity of Eccles’ Model. In light of our findings, recommendations to reduce the gender differences in science achievement and Future-oriented Science Motivation are made for science education participants, teachers, parents, curriculum leaders, examination bodies and policy makers.

Do genetic variations alter the effects of exercise training on cardiovascular disease and can we identify the candidate variants now or in the future?

PubMed

Hagberg, James M

2011-09-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors are highly heritable, and numerous lines of evidence indicate they have a strong genetic basis. While there is nothing known about the interactive effects of genetics and exercise training on CVD itself, there is at least some literature addressing their interactive effect on CVD risk factors. There is some evidence indicating that CVD risk factor responses to exercise training are also heritable and, thus, may have a genetic basis. While roughly 100 studies have reported significant effects of genetic variants on CVD risk factor responses to exercise training, no definitive conclusions can be generated at the present time, because of the lack of consistent and replicated results and the small sample sizes evident in most studies. There is some evidence supporting "possible" candidate genes that may affect these responses to exercise training: APO E and CETP for plasma lipoprotein-lipid profiles; eNOS, ACE, EDN1, and GNB3 for blood pressure; PPARG for type 2 diabetes phenotypes; and FTO and BAR genes for obesity-related phenotypes. However, while genotyping technologies and statistical methods are advancing rapidly, the primary limitation in this field is the need to generate what in terms of exercise intervention studies would be almost incomprehensible sample sizes. Most recent diabetes, obesity, and blood pressure genetic studies have utilized populations of 10,000-250,000 subjects, which result in the necessary statistical power to detect the magnitude of effects that would probably be expected for the impact of an individual gene on CVD risk factor responses to exercise training. Thus at this time it is difficult to see how this field will advance in the future to the point where robust, consistent, and replicated data are available to address these issues. However, the results of recent large-scale genomewide association studies for baseline CVD risk factors may drive future hypothesis-driven exercise training intervention studies in smaller populations addressing the impact of specific genetic variants on well-defined physiological phenotypes.

Electric utility pole yard training facility: Designing an effective learning environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topping, Robert P.

The primary responsibility of electric utilities is to supply consistent, dependable, and affordable energy to private customers, businesses, and industries. As with many businesses, electric utilities are experiencing the effects of an aging workforce and expending considerable resources to train their current and replacement workers. Community colleges can partner with electric utilities to provide effective learning environments for these workers, and gain access to new sources of revenue and community support for the colleges. The purpose of this study was to describe the functions, features, and major design issues of an effective learning environment for training electric utility industry workers, the electric utility line-worker pole yard. Case studies of three "state of the art" line-worker pole yard training environments provide the basis for the study's findings and implications. The study was guided by the following research questions: (1) What is the function of a line-worker pole yard in supporting effective training? (2) What are the features of present day ("state of the art") line-worker pole yard learning environments? and (3) What are the major issues that need to be addressed in designing a line-worker pole yard learning environment for the future? The study participants included industry representatives, training coordinators, instructors, and students from the three selected "state of the art" line-worker pole yard sites. The overall findings from the study resulted in composites of the desired features of learning outcomes, learning process, and learning environment for a line-worker pole yard training program and major issues that are affecting the future design of these training programs. Composite findings of a pole-yard training environment included unique features associated with: (a) outdoor, (b) indoor, (c) underground, (d) classroom, (e) gathering places, and (f) work-based learning components. Composite findings with regard to major issues that need to be considered in future designs of pole-yard training environments included: (a) available unrestricted land for expansion, (b) resource commitment level, (c) workforce demographics, (d) aging industrial infrastructure, (e) electronic information and communication capability, (f) quality and quantity of available instructors, and (g) environmental and economic impact.

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

PubMed

Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2017-04-01

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A repertoire of leadership attributes: an international study of deans of nursing.

PubMed

Wilkes, Lesley; Cross, Wendy; Jackson, Debra; Daly, John

2015-04-01

To determine which characteristics of academic leadership are perceived to be necessary for nursing deans to be successful. Effective leadership is essential for the continued growth of the discipline. A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with 30 deans (academics in universities who headed a nursing faculty and degree programmes) was conducted in three countries--Canada, England and Australia. The conversations were analysed for leadership attributes. Sixty personal and positional attributes were nominated by the participants. Of these, the most frequent attribute was 'having vision'. Personal attributes included: passion, patience, courage, facilitating, sharing and being supportive. Positional attributes included: communication, faculty development, role modelling, good management and promoting nursing. Both positional and personal aspects of academic leadership are important to assist in developing a succession plan and education for new deans. It is important that talented people are recognised as potential leaders of the future. These future leaders should be given every chance to grow and develop through exposure to opportunities to develop skills and the attributes necessary for effective deanship. Strategic mentoring could prove to be useful in developing and supporting the growth of future deans of nursing. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study.

PubMed

Senese, Francesca; Tubertini, Paolo; Mazzocchetti, Angelina; Lodi, Andrea; Ruozi, Corrado; Grilli, Roberto

2015-01-30

Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level. We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection. To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.

Effects of halogenated aromatics/aliphatics and nitrogen(N)-heterocyclic aromatics on estimating the persistence of future pharmaceutical compounds using a modified QSAR model.

PubMed

Lim, Seung Joo; Fox, Peter

2014-02-01

The effects of halogenated aromatics/aliphatics and nitrogen(N)-heterocyclic aromatics on estimating the persistence of future pharmaceutical compounds were investigated using a modified half life equation. The potential future pharmaceutical compounds investigated were approximately 2000 pharmaceutical drugs currently undergoing the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) testing. EPI Suite (BIOWIN) model estimates the fates of compounds based on the biodegradability under aerobic conditions. While BIOWIN considered the biodegradability of a compound only, the half life equation used in this study was modified by biodegradability, sorption and cometabolic oxidation. It was possible that the potential future pharmaceutical compounds were more accurately estimated using the modified half life equation. The modified half life equation considered sorption and cometabolic oxidation of halogenated aromatic/aliphatics and nitrogen(N)-heterocyclic aromatics in the sub-surface, while EPI Suite (BIOWIN) did not. Halogenated aliphatics in chemicals were more persistent than halogenated aromatics in the sub-surface. In addition, in the sub-surface environment, the fates of organic chemicals were much more affected by halogenation in chemicals than by nitrogen(N)-heterocyclic aromatics. © 2013.

Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

PubMed

Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing.

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick; Maarten van Ormondt,; Erikson, Li H.; Jodi Eshleman,; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Peter Ruggiero,; Peter Adams,; Foxgrover, Amy C.

2014-01-01

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Methodological considerations for designing a community water fluoridation cessation study.

PubMed

Singhal, Sonica; Farmer, Julie; McLaren, Lindsay

2017-06-01

High-quality, up-to-date research on community water fluoridation (CWF), and especially on the implications of CWF cessation for dental health, is limited. Although CWF cessation studies have been conducted, they are few in number; one of the major reasons is the methodological complexity of conducting such a study. This article draws on a systematic review of existing cessation studies (n=15) to explore methodological considerations of conducting CWF cessation studies in future. We review nine important methodological aspects (study design, comparison community, target population, time frame, sampling strategy, clinical indicators, assessment criteria, covariates and biomarkers) and provide recommendations for planning future CWF cessation studies that examine effects on dental caries. There is no one ideal study design to answer a research question. However, recommendations proposed regarding methodological aspects to conduct an epidemiological study to observe the effects of CWF cessation on dental caries, coupled with our identification of important methodological gaps, will be useful for researchers who are looking to optimize resources to conduct such a study with standards of rigour. © 2017 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Do time perspective and sensation-seeking predict quitting activity among smokers? Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey.

PubMed

Hall, Peter A; Fong, Geoffrey T; Yong, Hua-Hie; Sansone, Genevieve; Borland, Ron; Siahpush, Mohammad

2012-12-01

Personality factors such as time perspective and sensation-seeking have been shown to predict smoking uptake. However, little is known about the influences of these variables on quitting behavior, and no prior studies have examined the association cross-nationally in a large probability sample. In the current study it was hypothesized that future time perspective would enhance - while sensation-seeking would inhibit - quitting activity among smokers. It was anticipated that the effects would be similar across English speaking countries. Using a prospective cohort design, this cross-national study of adult smokers (N=8845) examined the associations among time perspective, sensation-seeking and quitting activity using the first three waves of data gathered from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey (ITC-4), a random digit dialed telephone survey of adult smokers from the United Kingdom, United States, Canada and Australia. Findings revealed that future time perspective (but not sensation-seeking) was a significant predictor of quitting attempts over the 8-month follow-up after adjusting for socio-demographic variables, factors known to inhibit quitting (e.g., perceived addiction, enjoyment of smoking, and perceived value of smoking), and factors known to enhance quitting (e.g., quit intention strength, perceived benefit of quitting, concerns about health effects of smoking). The latter, particularly intention, were significant mediators of the effect of time perspective on quitting activity. The effects of time perspective on quitting activity were similar across all four English speaking countries sampled. If these associations are causal in nature, it may be the case that interventions and health communications that enhance future-orientation may foster more quit attempts among current smokers. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observational determination of the greenhouse effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raval, A.; Ramanathan, V.

1989-01-01

Satellite measurements are used to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect, defined here as the infrared radiation energy trapped by atmospheric gases and clouds. The greenhouse effect is found to increase significantly with sea surface temperature. The rate of increase gives compelling evidence for the positive feedback between surface temperature, water vapor and the greenhouse effect; the magnitude of the feedback is consistent with that predicted by climate models. This study demonstrates an effective method for directly monitoring, from space, future changes in the greenhouse effect.

Effect of emotional cues on prospective memory performance in patients with schizophrenia and major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Yang, Tian-Xiao; Cui, Xi-Long; Wang, Ya; Huang, Jing; Lui, Simon S Y; Zhang, Rui-Ting; Cheung, Eric F C; Chan, Raymond C K

2018-05-24

Prospective memory (PM) is the ability to remember to carry out future intentions when prompted by a cue, and previous studies have suggested that emotional PM cues may enhance PM performance. This study examined the influence of emotional cues on PM performance in patients with schizophrenia and major depressive disorder. All participants were required to respond to emotional or neutral PM cues while completing a working memory task. Healthy participants showed improved PM performance with positive and negative cues. Patients with major depressive disorder were not impaired in PM performance and showed significant improvement in PM performance when cued by negative but not positive cues. Patients with schizophrenia had impaired PM performance irrespective of cue emotionality. In addition, the majority of patients with schizophrenia failed to show an emotional enhancement effect, and only those who had normal arousal ratings for negative PM cues showed emotional enhancement effect. These findings show for the first time that patients with schizophrenia exhibit PM impairments even with emotional cues, and suggest that arousal may be a critical factor for schizophrenia patients to utilize emotional cues to facilitate execution of future actions. In patients with major depressive disorder, our findings suggest that the negative bias in attention and retrospective memory may also extend to memory for future actions. These novel findings have both theoretical and clinical implications. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

PubMed

Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Benzo[a]pyrene exposure under future ocean acidification scenarios weakens the immune responses of blood clam, Tegillarca granosa.

PubMed

Su, Wenhao; Zha, Shanjie; Wang, Yichen; Shi, Wei; Xiao, Guoqiang; Chai, Xueliang; Wu, Hongxi; Liu, Guangxu

2017-04-01

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are known to converge into the ocean and accumulate in the sediment, posing great threats to marine organisms such as the sessile bottom burrowing bivalves. However, the immune toxicity of POPs, such as B[a]P, under future ocean acidification scenarios remains poorly understood to date. Therefore, in the present study, the impacts of B[a]P exposure on the immune responses of a bivalve species, Tegillarca granosa, under present and future ocean acidification scenarios were investigated. Results obtained revealed an increased immune toxicity of B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios in terms of reduced THC, altered haemocyte composition, and hampered phagocytosis, which may attribute to the synergetic effects of B[a]P and ocean acidification. In addition, the gene expressions of pathogen pattern recognition receptors (TLR1, TLR2, TLR4, TLR6), pathway mediators (TRAF6, TAK1, TAB2, IKKα and Myd88), and effectors (NF-ĸB) of the important immune related pathways were significantly down-regulated upon exposure to B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios. Results of the present study suggested an increased immune toxicity of B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios, which will significantly hamper the immune responses of T. granosa and subsequently render individuals more susceptible to pathogens challenges. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dependence of future mortality changes on global CO2 concentrations: A review.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Choi, Hayoung; Kim, Ho

2018-05-01

The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO 2 concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO 2 concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Reworking Underfilled Components on Pad Strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigel, Andrew

Reworkable underfills represent a significant step in electronic packaging technologies, however they are still relatively unstudied compared to traditional underfills. To help understand the properties of these underfills, four newly developed underfills were studied with the assistance of the companies which developed them. Of primary concern is how does the thermal cycling, and subsequent rework of larger BGA components effect pad strength on the substrate. To study this a detailed rework procedure was developed which worked well for all underfills studied. Within the development of the rework procedure a discovery was made effecting reworkability. After an initial breakdown of the underfill during reflow conditions, further rework was possible at lowered temperatures. This development was not listed in any of the company provided rework procedures. Pad strength was measured with hot bump pull testing. This showed that while the inherent variance is quite large, there are still measurable effects of thermal cycling on pad strength after rework. Trends for the number of cycles causing the overall strength of the pads to be relatively stronger or weaker, vary depending on the material. This research sets a solid groundwork for future research into reworkable underfills, with a detailed rework process. Future avenues of research include: effects of rework on component lifetimes in thermal cycling, mechanics behind lower temperature of rework after initial breakdown of underfill, and effects of reworked substrates on underfill flow rates and void formation.

The management of Otitis Media with Effusion in children with cleft palate (mOMEnt): a feasibility study and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Bruce, Iain; Harman, Nicola; Williamson, Paula; Tierney, Stephanie; Callery, Peter; Mohiuddin, Syed; Payne, Katherine; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Kirkham, Jamie; O'Brien, Kevin

2015-08-01

Cleft lip and palate are among the most common congenital malformations, with an incidence of around 1 in 700. Cleft palate (CP) results in impaired Eustachian tube function, and 90% of children with CP have otitis media with effusion (OME) histories. There are several approaches to management, including watchful waiting, the provision of hearing aids (HAs) and the insertion of ventilation tubes (VTs). However, the evidence underpinning these strategies is unclear and there is a need to determine which treatment is the most appropriate. To identify the optimum study design, increase understanding of the impact of OME, determine the value of future research and develop a core outcome set (COS) for use in future studies. The management of Otitis Media with Effusion in children with cleft palate (mOMEnt) study had four key components: (i) a survey evaluation of current clinical practice in each cleft centre; (ii) economic modelling and value of information (VOI) analysis to determine if the extent of existing decision uncertainty justifies the cost of further research; (iii) qualitative research to capture patient and parent opinion regarding willingness to participate in a trial and important outcomes; and (iv) the development of a COS for use in future effectiveness trials of OME in children with CP. The survey was carried out by e-mail with cleft centres. The qualitative research interviews took place in patients' homes. The COS was developed with health professionals and parents using a web-based Delphi exercise and a consensus meeting. Clinicians working in the UK cleft centres, and parents and patients affected by CP and identified through two cleft clinics in the UK, or through the Cleft Lip and Palate Association. The clinician survey revealed that care was predominantly delivered via a 'hub-and-spoke' model; there was some uncertainty about treatment strategies; it is not current practice to insert VTs at the time of palate repair; centres were in a position to take part in a future study; and the response rate to the survey was not good, representing a potential concern about future co-operation. A COS reflecting the opinions of clinicians and parents was developed, which included nine core outcomes important to both health-care professionals and parents. The qualitative research suggested that a trial would have a 25% recruitment rate, and although hearing was a key outcome, this was likely to be due to its psychosocial consequences. The VOI analysis suggested that the current uncertainty justified the costs of future research. There exists significant uncertainty regarding the best management strategy for persistent OME in children with clefts, reflecting a lack of high-quality evidence regarding the effectiveness of individual treatments. It is feasible, cost-effective and of significance to clinicians and parents to undertake a trial examining the effectiveness of VTs and HAs for children with CP. However, in view of concerns about recruitment rate and engagement with the clinicians, we recommend that a trial with an internal pilot is considered. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. This study was part-funded by the Healing Foundation supported by the Vocational Training Charitable Trust who funded trial staff including the study co-ordinator, information systems developer, study statistician, administrator and supervisory staff.

Epigenetic Perspective on the Developmental Effects of Bisphenol A

PubMed Central

Kundakovic, Marija; Champagne, Frances A.

2013-01-01

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an estrogenic environmental toxin widely used in the production of plastics and ubiquitous human exposure to this chemical has been proposed to be a potential risk to public health. Animal studies suggest that in utero and early postnatal exposure to this compound may produce a broad range of adverse effects, including impaired brain development, sexual differentiation, behavior, and immune function, which could extend to future generations. Molecular mechanisms that underlie the long-lasting effects of BPA continue to be elucidated, and likely involve disruption of epigenetic programming of gene expression during development. Several studies have provided evidence that maternal exposure to BPA results in postnatal changes in DNA methylation status and altered expression of specific genes in offspring. However, further studies are needed to extend these initial findings to other genes in different tissues, and to examine the correlations between BPA-induced epigenetic alterations, changes in gene expression, and various phenotypic outcomes. It will be also important to explore whether the epigenetic effects of BPA are related to its estrogenic activity, and to determine which downstream effector proteins could mediate changes in DNA methylation. In this review, we will highlight research indicating a consequence of prenatal BPA exposure for brain, behavior, and immune outcomes and discuss evidence for the role of epigenetic pathways in shaping these developmental effects. Based on this evidence, we will suggest future directions in the study of BPA-induced epigenetic effects and discuss the transgenerational implications of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals. PMID:21333735

Racial discrimination and cortisol output: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Korous, Kevin M; Causadias, José M; Casper, Deborah M

2017-11-01

Although the relation between stress and physiology is well documented, attempts at understanding the link between racial discrimination and cortisol output, specifically, have produced mixed results, likely due to study characteristics such as racial/ethnic composition of the samples (e.g., African American, Latino), measures of discrimination, and research design (e.g., cross-sectional, experimental). To estimate the overall association between racial discrimination and cortisol output among racial/ethnic minority individuals and to determine if the association between racial discrimination and cortisol output is moderated by age, race/ethnicity, type of discrimination measure, sex, and research design. Using a random effects model, the overall effect size based on k = 16 studies (19% unpublished) and N = 1506 participants was r¯ = 0.040, 95% CI = -0.038 to 0.117. Studies were conducted predominantly in the U.S. (81%). Notably, experimental studies (r¯ = 0.267) exhibited larger effect sizes compared to non-experimental studies (r¯ = -0.007). Age, race/ethnicity, type of discrimination measure, and sex did not moderate the effect sizes. This meta-analysis provides evidence that the measurement of the association between racial discrimination and cortisol is complex, and it offers valuable insight regarding methods and designs that can inform future research on this topic. Limitations and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impacts of repeated cold exposure on insects.

PubMed

Marshall, Katie E; Sinclair, Brent J

2012-05-15

Insects experience repeated cold exposure (RCE) on multiple time scales in natural environments, yet the majority of studies of the effects of cold on insects involve only a single exposure. Three broad groups of experimental designs have been employed to examine the effects of RCE on insect physiology and fitness, defined by the control treatments: 'RCE vs cold', which compares RCE with constant cold conditions; 'RCE vs warm', which compares RCE with constant warm conditions; and 'RCE vs matched cold' which compares RCE with a prolonged period of cold matched by time to the RCE condition. RCE are generally beneficial to immediate survival, and increase cold hardiness relative to insects receiving a single prolonged cold exposure. However, the effects of RCE depend on the study design, and RCE vs warm studies cannot differentiate between the effects of cold exposure in general vs RCE in particular. Recent studies of gene transcription, immune function, feeding and reproductive output show that the responses of insects to RCE are distinct from the responses to single cold exposures. We suggest that future research should attempt to elucidate the mechanistic link between physiological responses and fitness parameters. We also recommend that future RCE experiments match the time spent at the stressful low temperature in all experimental groups, include age controls where appropriate, incorporate a pilot study to determine time and intensity of exposure, and measure sub-lethal impacts on fitness.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Sanderson, Michael; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.

The role of CO2 variability and exposure time for biological impacts of ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Emily C.; Munday, Philip L.; McNeil, Ben I.

2013-09-01

impacts of ocean acidification have mostly been studied using future levels of CO2 without consideration of natural variability or how this modulates both duration and magnitude of CO2 exposure. Here we combine results from laboratory studies on coral reef fish with diurnal in situ CO2 data from a shallow coral reef, to demonstrate how natural variability alters exposure times for marine organisms under increasingly high-CO2 conditions. Large in situ CO2 variability already results in exposure of coral reef fish to short-term CO2 levels higher than laboratory-derived critical CO2 levels (~600 µatm). However, we suggest that the in situ exposure time is presently insufficient to induce negative effects observed in laboratory studies. Our results suggest that both exposure time and the magnitude of CO2 levels will be important in determining the response of organisms to future ocean acidification, where both will increase markedly with future increases in CO2.

Sad mood promotes self-initiated mental contrasting of future and reality.

PubMed

Kappes, Heather Barry; Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Maglio, Sam

2011-10-01

Self-regulation by mentally contrasting a positive future with negative reality leads people to differentiate in their goal commitments: They commit to goals when expectations of success are high and let go when expectations of success are low. On the contrary, when indulging in the positive future or dwelling on negative reality, people fail to consider expectations of success and do not form selective goal commitments (Oettingen, Pak, & Schnetter, 2001). Whereas prior research has examined the effects of experimentally induced mental contrasting, we address sad mood as a contextual influence promoting self-initiated mental contrasting. Across various mood inductions, sad moods--which are associated with problem solving strategies--facilitated self-initiated mental contrasting more than neutral moods (Studies 1, 5) or happy moods (Studies 2, 3, 4, 6). Importantly, mood did not affect the relation between mental contrasting and selective formation of goal commitment (Studies 5, 6). The results suggest that sad moods aid in self-regulation by making people self-initiate goal commitments that are sensitive to their expectations of success.

The software product assurance metrics study: JPL's software systems quality and productivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bush, Marilyn W.

1989-01-01

The findings are reported of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)/Software Product Assurance (SPA) Metrics Study, conducted as part of a larger JPL effort to improve software quality and productivity. Until recently, no comprehensive data had been assembled on how JPL manages and develops software-intensive systems. The first objective was to collect data on software development from as many projects and for as many years as possible. Results from five projects are discussed. These results reflect 15 years of JPL software development, representing over 100 data points (systems and subsystems), over a third of a billion dollars, over four million lines of code and 28,000 person months. Analysis of this data provides a benchmark for gauging the effectiveness of past, present and future software development work. In addition, the study is meant to encourage projects to record existing metrics data and to gather future data. The SPA long term goal is to integrate the collection of historical data and ongoing project data with future project estimations.

Current versus future reproduction and longevity: a re-evaluation of predictions and mechanisms.

PubMed

Zhang, Yufeng; Hood, Wendy R

2016-10-15

Oxidative damage is predicted to be a mediator of trade-offs between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, but most studies fail to support such predictions. We suggest that two factors underlie the equivocal nature of these findings: (1) investigators typically assume a negative linear relationship between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, even though this is not consistently shown by empirical studies; and (2) studies often fail to target mechanisms that could link interactions between sequential life-history events. Here, we review common patterns of reproduction, focusing on the relationships between reproductive performance, survival and parity in females. Observations in a range of species show that performance between sequential reproductive events can decline, remain consistent or increase. We describe likely bioenergetic consequences of reproduction that could underlie these changes in fitness, including mechanisms that could be responsible for negative effects being ephemeral, persistent or delayed. Finally, we make recommendations for designing future studies. We encourage investigators to carefully consider additional or alternative measures of bioenergetic function in studies of life-history trade-offs. Such measures include reactive oxygen species production, oxidative repair, mitochondrial biogenesis, cell proliferation, mitochondrial DNA mutation and replication error and, importantly, a measure of the respiratory function to determine whether measured differences in bioenergetic state are associated with a change in the energetic capacity of tissues that could feasibly affect future reproduction or lifespan. More careful consideration of the life-history context and bioenergetic variables will improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the life-history patterns of animals. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Current versus future reproduction and longevity: a re-evaluation of predictions and mechanisms

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yufeng

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Oxidative damage is predicted to be a mediator of trade-offs between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, but most studies fail to support such predictions. We suggest that two factors underlie the equivocal nature of these findings: (1) investigators typically assume a negative linear relationship between current reproduction and future reproduction or survival, even though this is not consistently shown by empirical studies; and (2) studies often fail to target mechanisms that could link interactions between sequential life-history events. Here, we review common patterns of reproduction, focusing on the relationships between reproductive performance, survival and parity in females. Observations in a range of species show that performance between sequential reproductive events can decline, remain consistent or increase. We describe likely bioenergetic consequences of reproduction that could underlie these changes in fitness, including mechanisms that could be responsible for negative effects being ephemeral, persistent or delayed. Finally, we make recommendations for designing future studies. We encourage investigators to carefully consider additional or alternative measures of bioenergetic function in studies of life-history trade-offs. Such measures include reactive oxygen species production, oxidative repair, mitochondrial biogenesis, cell proliferation, mitochondrial DNA mutation and replication error and, importantly, a measure of the respiratory function to determine whether measured differences in bioenergetic state are associated with a change in the energetic capacity of tissues that could feasibly affect future reproduction or lifespan. More careful consideration of the life-history context and bioenergetic variables will improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the life-history patterns of animals. PMID:27802148

Cognitive style as a factor in accounting students' perceptions of career-choice factors.

PubMed

Gul, F; Huang, A; Subramaniam, N

1992-12-01

Since prior studies of individuals' perceptions of career-choice factors have not considered the effect of cognitive styles of subjects, this study, using 68 accounting students, investigated the mediating effects of the field dependent-independent cognitive dimension on perceptions of the importance of career-choice factors. The results, in general, show that cognitive style affected individuals' perceptions of career-choice factors, suggesting that future studies of individuals' perceptions should take into account individual cognitive differences.

Effects of work ability and health promoting interventions for women with musculoskeletal symptoms: A 9-month prospective study

PubMed Central

Larsson, Agneta; Karlqvist, Lena; Gard, Gunvor

2008-01-01

Background Women working in the public human service sector in 'overstrained' situations run the risk of musculoskeletal symptoms and long-term sick leave. In order to maintain the level of health and work ability and strengthen the potential resources for health, it is important that employees gain greater control over decisions and actions affecting their health – a process associated with the concept of self-efficacy. The aim of this study was to describe the effects of a self-efficacy intervention and an ergonomic education intervention for women with musculoskeletal symptoms, employed in the public sector. Methods The design of the study was a 9-month prospective study describing the effects of two interventions, a comprehensive self-efficacy intervention (n = 21) and an ergonomic education intervention (n = 21). Data were obtained by a self-report questionnaire on health- and work ability-related factors at baseline, and at ten weeks and nine months follow-up. Within-group differences over time were analysed. Results Over the time period studied there were small magnitudes of improvements within each group. Within the self-efficacy intervention group positive effects in perceived work ability were shown. The ergonomic education group showed increased positive beliefs about future work ability and a more frequent use of pain coping strategies. Conclusion Both interventions showed positive effects on women with musculoskeletal symptoms, but in different ways. Future research in this area should tailor interventions to participants' motivation and readiness to change. PMID:18644154

Alternative Models for the ERIC Clearinghouse Network.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenwood, P. W.; Weiler, D. M.

The National Center for Educational Communication (NCEC) contracted with Rand to develop a range of potential objectives and structures for the Educational Resources Information Center (ERIC) system that could render it more effective in the future. The Rand study team surveyed the scope and sources of education literature and studied the…

Campus Computing Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCredie, John W., Ed.

Ten case studies that describe the planning process and strategies employed by colleges who use computing and communication systems are presented, based on a 1981-1982 study conducted by EDUCOM. An introduction by John W. McCredie summarizes several current and future effects of the rapid spread and integration of computing and communication…

A STUDY OF THE PHARMACOLOGY AND TOXICOLOGY OF VISION IN THE SOLDIER. 1. CHLOROQUINE AND HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE.

DTIC Science & Technology

A critical evaluation of reports on the toxic effects of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine on vision has revealed a relationship between the dosage...revealed a possible explanation of the retinal toxicity of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine . This phenomenon merits future study because reactions of

76 FR 78927 - Proposed Information Collection Activity; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-20

... estimates of the effectiveness of the programs. This component will use an experimental design. Program... inform decisions related to future investments in this kind of programming as well as the design and operation of such services. To meet the objective of the study, experimental impact studies with...