Science.gov

Sample records for electricity spot price

  1. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  2. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  3. Asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis of California electricity spot price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a new method called asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis, which is an extension of asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) and can assess the asymmetry correlation properties of series with a variable scale range. We investigate the asymmetric correlations in California 1999-2000 power market after filtering some periodic trends by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our findings show the coexistence of symmetric and asymmetric correlations in the price series of 1999 and strong asymmetric correlations in 2000. What is more, we detect subtle correlation properties of the upward and downward price series for most larger scale intervals in 2000. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of Δα(s) (asymmetry) and | Δα(s) | (absolute asymmetry) are more significant in 2000 than that in 1999 for larger scale intervals, and they have similar characteristics for smaller scale intervals. We conclude that the strong asymmetry property and different correlation properties of upward and downward price series for larger scale intervals in 2000 have important implications on the collapse of California power market, and our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms of power price.

  4. Permutation Min-Entropy and Statistical Complexity Analysis of Electricity Spot Price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju; Li, Dan

    2015-10-01

    In this study, we investigate the subtle temporal dynamics of California 1999-2000 spot price series based on permutation min-entropy (PME) and complexity-entropy causality plane. The dynamical transitions of price series are captured and the temporal correlations of price series are also discriminated by the recently introduced PME. Moreover, utilizing the CECP, we provide a refined classification of the monthly price dynamics and obtain an insight into the stochastic nature of price series. The results uncover that the spot price signal presents diverse temporal correlations and exhibits a higher stochastic behavior during the periods of crisis.

  5. Real prices from spot foreign exchange market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petroni, Filippo; Serva, Maurizio

    2004-12-01

    In this work we discuss the problem of price definition when using high frequency foreign exchange data. If one uses the spot mid price a strong autocorrelation of returns, at one lag, is found which is only due to microstructure effect and does not capture the real behavior of price dynamics. This autocorrelation increases the intraday volatility estimated from this type of data. To solve this problem we introduce an algorithm which is able, by using the no-arbitrage principle, of eliminating every microstructure effects.

  6. Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update

    EIA Publications

    1998-01-01

    Illustrates a third impact of the move to competitive generation pricing -- the narrowing of the range of prices across regions of the country. This feature article updates information in Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing of Generation Services and Financial Status of Electric Utilities.

  7. Reliability-based pricing of electricity service

    SciTech Connect

    Hagazy, Y.A.

    1993-01-01

    This research has two objectives: (a) to develop a price structure that unbundles electricity service by reliability levels, and (b) to analyze the implications of such a structure on economic welfare, system operation, load management, and energy conservation. The authors developed a pricing mechanism for electricity service that combines priority (reliability differentiation) pricing with real-time Ramsey type pricing. The electric utility is assumed to be a single welfare-maximizing firm able to set and communicate prices instantly. At time of supply shortages, the utility has direct control over customer loads and follows a rationing method among customers willing to accept power interruptions. Therefore, customers are given the choice either to be served with a high reliability [open quotes]firm[close quotes] service, or to be subject to interruption. To encourage customers to make rational reliability choices, a payment/compensation mechanism was integrated into the welfare-maximization model. In order to account for uncertainties associated with the operation of electric power systems, a stochastic production cost simulation is also integrated with the model. The stochastic production cost simulation yields the estimation of the expected production, cost, marginal costs, and system reliability level at total demand. The authors examine the welfare gain and energy and reserve saving possibilities due to different pricing schemes. The results show that reliability-based pricing yields higher economic efficiency and energy and power saving than both spot and Ramsey pricing when system imperfect reliability is considered. Therefore, the implication of this research is that reliability-based pricing provides a feasible solution to electric utilities as a substitute for power purchases, and/or new capacity investment.

  8. The compass rose pattern in electricity prices.

    PubMed

    Batten, Jonathan A; Hamada, Mahmoud

    2009-12-01

    The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics.

  9. Two essays on real-time pricing of electric power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Nainish Kumar

    1997-09-01

    This dissertation contains two essays on a new innovative pricing mechanism in the electric power industry known as Real Time Pricing (RTP). RTP is a method of pricing electric power wherein at least one component of the price is set at or near levels that reflect the marginal costs of providing power during each time-specific interval. These prices vary in accord with time-specific, incremental supplier costs. RTP allows customers to manage their own bills by adjusting their consumption as spot prices and supplier costs vary, which may amount during a single day from 2 cents to 85 cents for one kilowatt hour (kWh) of usage. Using 1995 data the hypothesis that industrial customers shift their usage patterns of electricity in response to real time prices is tested. To measure customer responsiveness to real time electric rates, econometric techniques are applied to estimate demand elasticities.

  10. Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices, An

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    This article compares realized Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas during the three most recent winters with futures prices as they evolve from April through the following February, when trading for the March contract ends.

  11. Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing

    EIA Publications

    1997-01-01

    Presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated cost-of-service pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers?

  12. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  13. Understanding Price Formation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadoya, Toshihisa; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Ihara, Satoru

    The electricity price will influence the future growth and mix of generation capacity that will in turn influence the future electricity price, and therefore, it is important to understand how electricity price is formed as well as its short-term and long-term impacts on the economy. This paper describes evaluation of PJM day-ahead market bidding data and comparison of various electricity markets in terms of the market clearing price and volatility. The objective is to find critical factors and mechanisms determining the movements of electricity price. It was found that speculation by a small number of bidders can cause price spikes, that a Nash equilibrium may exist during a delayed response of the electricity price to a decline of the fuel price, and that the hydro generation with storage capability effectively stabilizes the electricity price.

  14. Spot market activity remains weak as prices continue to fall

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in November 1996 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers. Spot market activity increased in November with just over 1.0 million lbs of U3O8 equivalent being transacted compared to October`s total of 530,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range slipped from $15.50-$15.70/lb U3O8 last month to $14.85/lb - $15.25/lb U3O8 this month. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range also slipped to $14.85/lb - $15.00/lb this month from $15.00/lb - $15.45/lb in October. Spot prices for conversion and separative work units remained at their October levels.

  15. Essays on price dynamics, discovery, and dynamic threshold effects among energy spot markets in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Haesun

    2005-12-01

    Given the role electricity and natural gas sectors play in the North American economy, an understanding of how markets for these commodities interact is important. This dissertation independently characterizes the price dynamics of major electricity and natural gas spot markets in North America by combining directed acyclic graphs with time series analyses. Furthermore, the dissertation explores a generalization of price difference bands associated with the law of one price. Interdependencies among 11 major electricity spot markets are examined in Chapter II using a vector autoregression model. Results suggest that the relationships between the markets vary by time. Western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time horizons these separations disappear. Palo Verde is the important spot market in the west for price discovery. Southwest Power Pool is the dominant market in Eastern Interconnected System for price discovery. Interdependencies among eight major natural gas spot markets are investigated using a vector error correction model and the Greedy Equivalence Search Algorithm in Chapter III. Findings suggest that the eight price series are tied together through six long-run cointegration relationships, supporting the argument that the natural gas market has developed into a single integrated market in North America since deregulation. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in the excess consuming regions and move to the excess producing regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region, represented by the Chicago spot market, is the most important for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and Malin Hub in Oregon are important for eastern and western markets. In Chapter IV, a threshold vector error correction model is applied to the natural gas markets to examine nonlinearities in adjustments to the law of one price. Results show that there are nonlinear

  16. Price convergence in North America natural gas spot markets

    SciTech Connect

    King, M.; Cuc, M.

    1996-12-01

    Government policy changes and subsequent regulatory actions in Canada and the United States (US) in the mid-1980s led to effective deregulation of the commodity market for natural gas. This was done by price deregulation, unbundling of pipeline services, and the fostering of a competitive market through equal and open access to pipeline transportation capacity by all suppliers and users. This paper attempts to measure the degree of price convergence in the North American natural gas spot markets. 38 refs.

  17. Time series analysis and long range correlations of Nordic spot electricity market data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erzgräber, Hartmut; Strozzi, Fernanda; Zaldívar, José-Manuel; Touchette, Hugo; Gutiérrez, Eugénio; Arrowsmith, David K.

    2008-11-01

    The electricity system price of the Nord Pool spot market is analysed. Different time scale analysis tools are assessed with focus on the Hurst exponent and long range correlations. Daily and weekly periodicities of the spot market are identified. Even though space time separation plots suggest more stationary behaviour than other financial time series, we find large fluctuations of the spot price market which suggest time-dependent scaling parameters.

  18. Empirical Analysis of the Spot Market Implications ofPrice-Responsive Demand

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Bartholomew, Emily S.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-08-01

    Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulatedelectricity industries share one common feature: the absence of anysignificant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, most electricity consumers stillpay an average cost based regulated retail tariff held over from the eraof vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are oftenforced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in openmarkets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who aresometimes additionally forbidden by regulators from signing hedgingcontracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time(or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price ofelectricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumptionaccordingly. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic,which together with the non storability of electricity that requiresmarket clearing over very short time steps spawn many other problemsassociated with electricity markets, such as exercise of market power andprice volatility. Indeed, electricity generation resources can bestretched to the point where system adequacy is threatened. Economictheory suggests that even modest price responsiveness can relieve thestress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To quantify thiseffect, actual generator bid data from the New York control area is usedto construct supply stacks and intersect them with demand curves ofvarious slopes to approximate the effect of different levels of demandresponse. The potential impact of real-time pricing (RTP) on theequilibrium spot price and quantity is then estimated. These resultsindicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a moreprice-responsive demand providing policymakers with a measure of howprices can be potentially reduced and consumption maintained within thecapability of generation assets.

  19. An analysis of electricity price behavior when the market in California was dysfunctional

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Yoo-Soo

    The electricity market in California worked well for the first two years after restructuring, but in the summer of 2000 there were frequent high price spikes and then persistently high prices during the winter and the spring of 2001. This research develops econometric models to explain the behavior of the spot and forward prices for electricity and the relationship between them when the market in California was dysfunctional. The first results demonstrate that the high spot prices in the day-ahead market during the summer of 2000 were caused by changes in the bid behavior of buyers as well as by the offer behavior of sellers. After the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) declared that these high spot prices were "unjust and unreasonable", the FERC approved the payment of refunds to customers in California but not in other areas within the Western Inter-Connection (WECC). However, the results of a Vector Auto-Regressive model (VAR) show that the high spot prices in California were transferred immediately to other states in the WECC and the spot prices at different trading hubs belong to a single market. After the intervention by FERC in December 2000, spot prices and forward prices of electricity were unusually high. Estimated distributed lag models, using both monthly and daily data, show that there were strong positive relationships between the price shocks for electricity and natural gas in the spot markets and the forward prices for electricity. Risk premiums in the forward prices for electricity were estimated and the results show that the price shocks for electricity after FERC's intervention were the primary cause of the high forward prices. The main conclusions for regulatory policy are (1) it is virtually impossible to contain the effects of a dysfunctional electricity market to a single region because other regions are linked through the electrical grid, and (2) it is essential to intervene immediately and effectively when the spot prices have been

  20. Time Series Analysis of JEPX Spot Price with the Box-Jenkins Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishikawa, Hiroshi

    Following the examples of other countries, in April 2005 Japan launched wholesale electric power exchange operations as a primary item of system reform in line with electric liberalization. Only two years have passed since the initiation of these operations. However, in the summer of 2005, the surge in market prices was evident, which suggested that certain measures should be taken to confront potential market risks. Establishing a useful system for forecasting market prices through the modeling of price fluctuations in the wholesale electric market became essential. Currently, various price models are being proposed. Taking both the limited amount of data and the model's purpose into consideration, this study adopted the univariate time series model. We conducted a time series analysis on the open price indexes in the JEPX spot market with the Box-Jenkins method. Since a seven-day cycle can be observed in the data, we adopted the seasonal ARIMA model. In accordance with the procedures of the Box-Jenkins method, we determined the degree of the model's polynomial using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of the data and estimated the parameters of the model with the maximum likelihood method. We conducted a forecast on next day JEPX spot market prices with this time series model and examined its validity and utility as a forecasting tool. Price forecasts made with this model require only a small amount of data and will save substantial analysis work. Consequently, this method is expected to be widely used by market participants as the reference data for their bid pricing.

  1. Electricity pricing: theory and case studies

    SciTech Connect

    Munasinghe, M.; Warford, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    The book focuses on the importance of adopting correct power-pricing policies to maximize the net economic benefits of electricity consumption to society. It reports on the progress of the pricing reform program in the electric power sector that is underway in the developing world with the active encouragement of the World Bank. A valuable contribution to this effort was the book Electricity Economics by Turvey and Anderson, which helped stimulate an awareness of the importance of reflecting long-run marginal economic costs in pricing power in developing countries. The further stimulus of rapidly increasing electricity costs has caused this approach to be better understood by power authorities in the third world than in many industrialized countries. More specifically, the Bank's involvement in electric power project and sector work in the developing countries and the continuing exchange of information on pricing issues with utility companies have resulted in the synthesis and practical application of the pricing principles described in the book.

  2. An electricity price model with consideration to load and gas price effects.

    PubMed

    Huang, Min-xiang; Tao, Xiao-hu; Han, Zhen-xiang

    2003-01-01

    Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.

  3. Forecasting Long-Run Electricity Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Hamm, Gregory; Borison, Adam

    2006-08-15

    Estimation of long-run electricity prices is extremely important but it is also very difficult because of the many uncertainties that will determine future prices, and because of the lack of sufficient historical and forwards data. The difficulty is compounded when forecasters ignore part of the available information or unnecessarily limit their thinking about the future. The authors present a practical approach that addresses these problems. (author)

  4. Pricing and Application of Electric Storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Jialin

    Electric storage provides a vehicle to store power for future use. It contributes to the grids in multiple aspects. For instance, electric storage is a more effective approach to provide electricity ancillary services than conventional methods. Additionally, electric storage, especially fast-responding units, allows owners to implement high-frequency power transactions in settings such as the 5-min real-time trading market. Such high-frequency power trades were limited in the past. However, as technology advances, the power markets have evolved. For instance, the California Independent System Operator now supports the 5-min real-time trading and the hourly day-ahead ancillary services bidding. Existing valuation models of electric storage were not designed to accommodate these recent market developments. To fill this gap, I focus on the fast-responding grid-level electric storage that provides both the real-time trading and the day-ahead ancillary services bidding. To evaluate such an asset, I propose a Monte Carlo Simulation-based valuation model. The foundation of my model is simulations of power prices. This study develops a new simulation model of electric prices. It is worth noting that, unlike existing models, my proposed simulation model captures the dependency of the real-time markets on the day-ahead markets. Upon such simulations, this study investigates the pricing and the application of electric storage at a 5-min granularity. Essentially, my model is a Dynamic Programming system with both endogenous variables (i.e., the State-of-Charge of electric storage) and exogenous variables (i.e., power prices). My first numerical example is the valuation of a fictitious 4MWh battery. Similarly, my second example evaluates the application of two units of 2MWh batteries. By comparing these two experiments, I investigate the issues related to battery configurations, such as the impacts of splitting storage capability on the valuation of electric storage.

  5. Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popova, Julia

    2008-10-01

    This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

  6. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  7. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    SciTech Connect

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

    2012-07-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  8. A closed-form solution for the price of cross-commodity electricity derivatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsitakis, D.; Xanthopoulos, S.; Yannacopoulos, A. N.

    2006-11-01

    We present a method for the valuation of two types of cross-commodity electricity options, European spark spread options and locational spread options. Since the underlying assets here are non-tradeable, the methodology of Black-Scholes-Merton cannot be directly applied. Nevertheless, assuming only absence of arbitrage we provide a closed-form analytic formula for the price of the derivatives in the case where the spot prices of the underlying process follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

  9. Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

  10. The impact of wind power on electricity prices

    SciTech Connect

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo; Brinkman, Greg; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2016-08-01

    This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator - New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-min compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.

  11. Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

    2014-01-01

    This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

  12. Managing electricity demand through dynamic pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peddie, Robert A.; Bulleit, Douglas A.

    1985-11-01

    As electrical energy cannot be stored in large quantities with current technology, the energy balance of the electricity supply system has to be maintained continually by adjustments in supply to meet an unrestricted customer demand. Electricity over the projected peak tends to be very expensive, so utilities have sought to restrict demand during such periods to improve internal economic efficiency. The techniques used can be shown to be inefficient and disruptive if widely applied. Due to the way the utility and the regulators have homogenized costs, rate structures provide the customer no useful cost message as motivation to economically control utilization. Advances in microelectronics and communications remove these restrictions by allowing the customer to be informed continually of the cost of a kiloWatt hour (kWh) at the time of use. For the first time, the ensuing control of demand by the customer enables efficient utilization and simplifies the dynamic control of the electric system. This paper describes the method of formulating dynamic prices, the main elements and examples of the system, and how it can be introduced. The enumerated benefits show that greater customer satisfaction and improved economic management of the nation's resources and the utility's assets would result.

  13. Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norouzzadeh, P.; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, B.

    2007-07-01

    We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal analysis, fluctuations behavior, the scaling exponents and generalized Hurst exponents are studied. Moreover, contribution of fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations to multifractality is studied.

  14. Dynamic pricing for residential electric customers: a ratepayer advocate's perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Brand, Stefanie A.

    2010-07-15

    New Jersey's Rate Counsel urges that the consideration of alternative pricing mechanisms aimed at encouraging a reduction or shift in residential electricity usage include recognition of the needs and wishes of consumers. Without consumer buy-in, any such pricing mechanisms will fail. To achieve the desired goals, customers must be able to understand and react to the pricing signals. (author)

  15. Welfare implications of electricity pricing and power outages in Pakistan

    SciTech Connect

    Sabih, F.

    1986-01-01

    At the theoretical level, the existing literature on the application of marginal cost pricing is reviewed. Since it is not always possible to implement strict marginal cost pricing, the welfare implications of second best pricing given by the Ramsey pricing model are explored. The Ramsey pricing model is extended to incorporate the lifeline rates and the cots of power outages. Welfare effects of price vs. nonprice rationing are compared. On the empirical side, sector-wise electricity demand functions are estimated for the residential, industrial, commercial, and agricultural consumers in Pakistan. Ramsey numbers are derived for each sector by using the elasticity estimates from these demand functions combined with the prices and marginal cost estimates for each sector. It is determined that the current pricing policy does not follow the Ramsey pricing principles. The welfare losses resulting from divergence of prices from marginal costs are estimated. The problem of power outages in Pakistan is analyzed and its welfare costs are determined. Based on the results of this study, policy recommendations are made to bring the price of electricity in line with the cost of supplying electricity to each consumer group.

  16. Basic Studies on Chaotic Characteristics of Electric Power Market Price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takeuchi, Yuya; Miyauchi, Hajime; Kita, Toshihiro

    Recently, deregulation and reform of electric power utilities have been progressing in many parts of the world. In Japan, partial deregulation has been started from generation sector since 1995 and partial deregulation of retail sector is executed through twice law revisions. Through the deregulation, because electric power is traded in the market and its price is always fluctuated, it is important for the electric power business to analyze and predict the price. Although the price data of the electric power market is time series data, it is not always proper to analyze by the linear model such as ARMA because the price sometimes changes suddenly. Therefore, in this paper, we apply the methods of chaotic time series analysis, one of non-linear analysis methods, and investigate the chaotic characteristics of the system price of JEPX.

  17. Support vector machine for day ahead electricity price forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Intan Azmira binti Wan Abdul; Abidin, Izham bin Zainal; Siah, Yap Keem; Rahman, Titik Khawa binti Abdul; Lada, M. Y.; Ramani, Anis Niza binti; Nasir, M. N. M.; Ahmad, Arfah binti

    2015-05-01

    Electricity price forecasting has become an important part of power system operation and planning. In a pool- based electric energy market, producers submit selling bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding minimum selling prices to the market operator. Meanwhile, consumers submit buying bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding maximum buying prices to the market operator. Hence, both producers and consumers use day ahead price forecasts to derive their respective bidding strategies to the electricity market yet reduce the cost of electricity. However, forecasting electricity prices is a complex task because price series is a non-stationary and highly volatile series. Many factors cause for price spikes such as volatility in load and fuel price as well as power import to and export from outside the market through long term contract. This paper introduces an approach of machine learning algorithm for day ahead electricity price forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). Previous day data of Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP), generation's price and demand from Ontario power market are used as the inputs for training data. The simulation is held using LSSVMlab in Matlab with the training and testing data of 2004. SVM that widely used for classification and regression has great generalization ability with structured risk minimization principle rather than empirical risk minimization. Moreover, same parameter settings in trained SVM give same results that absolutely reduce simulation process compared to other techniques such as neural network and time series. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the proposed model shows that SVM performs well compared to neural network.

  18. Reliability differentiated real-time pricing of electricity

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqi, S.N.; Baughman, M.L. . Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering)

    1993-05-01

    Optimal resource planning and power dispatch models (from a societal welfare point of view) imply an optimal pricing policy, which is referred to here as reliability differentiated real-time pricing or, in short, reliability differentiated pricing. This pricing scheme combines real-time pricing and priority pricing with reliability differentiation based on consumer outage costs. An analysis is made of this reliability differentiated pricing policy of electrical energy. The model used in the analysis is developed with a particular emphasis on consumer behavior and welfare effects. The implications of the model to the pricing of spinning reserve and firm capacity, as well as to the issue of revenue reconciliation are examined. It is concluded that such a pricing scheme, will in general, result in greater attainable welfare than use of either the real-time pricing or priority pricing paradigms. Moreover, it results in the maximum attainable welfare for the system with revenue reconciliation, provides an optimal pricing scheme for spinning reserve and firm capacity, and is thus an efficient pricing mechanism.

  19. Demand side management in recycling and electricity retail pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazan, Osman

    This dissertation addresses several problems from the recycling industry and electricity retail market. The first paper addresses a real-life scheduling problem faced by a national industrial recycling company. Based on their practices, a scheduling problem is defined, modeled, analyzed, and a solution is approximated efficiently. The recommended application is tested on the real-life data and randomly generated data. The scheduling improvements and the financial benefits are presented. The second problem is from electricity retail market. There are well-known patterns in daily usage in hours. These patterns change in shape and magnitude by seasons and days of the week. Generation costs are multiple times higher during the peak hours of the day. Yet most consumers purchase electricity at flat rates. This work explores analytic pricing tools to reduce peak load electricity demand for retailers. For that purpose, a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices is established based on two major components: unit generation costs and consumers' utility. Both are analyzed and estimated empirically in the third paper. A pricing model is introduced to maximize the electric retailer's profit. As a result, a closed-form expression for the optimal price vector is obtained. Possible scenarios are evaluated for consumers' utility distribution. For the general case, we provide a numerical solution methodology to obtain the optimal pricing scheme. The models recommended are tested under various scenarios that consider consumer segmentation and multiple pricing policies. The recommended model reduces the peak load significantly in most cases. Several utility companies offer hourly pricing to their customers. They determine prices using historical data of unit electricity cost over time. In this dissertation we develop a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices with parameter estimation. The last paper includes a regression analysis of the unit generation cost

  20. Loss Aversion and Time-Differentiated Electricity Pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Spurlock, C. Anna

    2015-06-01

    I develop a model of loss aversion over electricity expenditure, from which I derive testable predictions for household electricity consumption while on combination time-of-use (TOU) and critical peak pricing (CPP) plans. Testing these predictions results in evidence consistent with loss aversion: (1) spillover effects - positive expenditure shocks resulted in significantly more peak consumption reduction for several weeks thereafter; and (2) clustering - disproportionate probability of consuming such that expenditure would be equal between the TOUCPP or standard flat-rate pricing structures. This behavior is inconsistent with a purely neoclassical utility model, and has important implications for application of time-differentiated electricity pricing.

  1. Modeling electricity pricing in a deregulated generation industry: The potential for oligopoly pricing in a poolco

    SciTech Connect

    Rudkevich, A.; Duckworth, M.; Rosen, R. )

    1998-01-01

    The authors calculate the electricity prices that would result from a pure poolco market with identical profit-maximizing generating firms. They advance theoretical concepts developed by Klemperer and Meyer (1989) and Green and Newbery (1992), and propose a new formula for the instantaneous market clearing price when generating firms adopt bidding strategies given by the Nash Equilibrium. Applying his formula to empirical electricity supply and demand data, the authors find that even in markets with a relatively high number of firms, the price of electricity is significantly higher than the short-run marginal cost of generation. They express the average annual price mark-up with a Price-Cost Margin Index, and show how it varies with market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI). They conclude that the federal Energy Regulatory Commission's use of the HHI in its merger guidelines could prove inadequate in addressing market power concerns in deregulated poolco markets.

  2. ``Hot spots'' growth on single nanowire controlled by electric charge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xi, Shaobo; Liu, Xuehua; He, Ting; Tian, Lei; Wang, Wenhui; Sun, Rui; He, Weina; Zhang, Xuetong; Zhang, Jinping; Ni, Weihai; Zhou, Xiaochun

    2016-06-01

    ``Hot spots'' - a kind of highly active site, which are usually composed of some unique units, such as defects, interfaces, catalyst particles or special structures - can determine the performance of nanomaterials. In this paper, we study a model system, i.e. ``hot spots'' on a single Ag nanowire in the galvanic replacement reaction (GRR), by dark-field microscopy. The research reveals that electric charge can be released by the formation reaction of AgCl, and consequently the electrochemical potential on Ag nanowire drops. The electric charge could induce the reduction of Ag+ to form the ``hot spots'' on the nanowire during the GRR. The appearance probability of ``hot spots'' is almost even along the Ag nanowire, while it is slightly lower near the two ends. The spatial distance between adjacent ``hot spots'' is also controlled by the charge, and obeys a model based on Boltzmann distribution. In addition, the distance distribution here has an advantage in electron transfer and energy saving. Therefore, it's necessary to consider the functions of electric charge during the synthesis or application of nanomaterials.``Hot spots'' - a kind of highly active site, which are usually composed of some unique units, such as defects, interfaces, catalyst particles or special structures - can determine the performance of nanomaterials. In this paper, we study a model system, i.e. ``hot spots'' on a single Ag nanowire in the galvanic replacement reaction (GRR), by dark-field microscopy. The research reveals that electric charge can be released by the formation reaction of AgCl, and consequently the electrochemical potential on Ag nanowire drops. The electric charge could induce the reduction of Ag+ to form the ``hot spots'' on the nanowire during the GRR. The appearance probability of ``hot spots'' is almost even along the Ag nanowire, while it is slightly lower near the two ends. The spatial distance between adjacent ``hot spots'' is also controlled by the charge, and obeys a

  3. Transmission Pricing Issues for Electricity Generation From Renewable Resources

    EIA Publications

    1999-01-01

    This article discusses how the resolution of transmission pricing issues which have arisen under the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) open access environment may affect the prospects for renewable-based electricity.

  4. Electricity Market Module: Electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect

    1996-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the updates to the Electricity Financial Pricing Module (EFP) to reflect the rate impacts of nuclear decommissioning. The EFP is part of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The updates to the EFP related to nuclear decommissioning include both changes to the underlying data base and the methodology. Nuclear decommissioning refers to the activities performed to take a nuclear plant permanently out of service. The costs of nuclear decommissioning are substantial and uncertain. The recovery of these costs from ratepayers is to occur over the operating life of the nuclear plant. Utilities are obligated to make estimates of the nuclear decommissioning cost every few years. Given this estimate, utilities are to assess a charge upon ratepayers, such that over the operating life of the plant they collect sufficient funds to pay for the decommissioning. However, cost estimates for decommissioning have been increasing and it appears that utilities have not been collecting adequate funds to date. In addition, there is a real risk that many nuclear plants may be closed earlier than originally planned, further exacerbating the under collection problem. The updates performed in this project provide the EFP with the capability to analyze these issues. The remainder of this document is divided into two discussions: (1) Nuclear Decommissioning Data Base, and (2) Methodology. Appendix A contains the actual data base developed during the project.

  5. Multifractal cross-correlation analysis in electricity spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju; Li, Dan

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the multiscale cross-correlations between electricity price and trading volume in Czech market based on a newly developed algorithm, called Multifractal Cross-Correlation Analysis (MFCCA). The new algorithm is a natural multifractal generalization of the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and is sensitive to cross-correlation structure and free from limitations of other algorithms. By considering the original sign of the cross-covariance, it allows us to properly quantify and detect the subtle characteristics of two simultaneous recorded time series. First, the multifractality and the long range anti-persistent auto-correlations of price return and trading volume variation are confirmed using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA). Furthermore, we show that there exist long-range anti-persistent cross-correlations between price return and trading volume variation by MFCCA. And we also identify that the cross-correlations disappear on the level of relative small fluctuations. In order to obtain deeper insight into the dynamics of the electricity market, we analyze the relation between generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal cross-correlation scaling exponent λq. We find that the difference between the generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal cross-correlation scaling exponent is significantly different for smaller fluctuation, which indicates that the multifractal character of cross-correlations resembles more each other for electricity price and trading volume on the level of large fluctuations and weakens for the smaller ones.

  6. Determining the Effects on Residential Electricity Prices and Carbon Emissions of Electricity Market Restructuring in Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jahangir, Junaid Bin

    When electricity restructuring initiatives were introduced in Alberta, and finalized with the institution of retail electricity market competition in 2001, it was argued that the changes would deliver lower electricity prices to residential consumers. However, residential electricity prices in Alberta increased dramatically in 2001, and have never returned to their pre-restructuring levels. Proponents of restructuring argue that electricity prices would have been even higher under continued regulation, citing the effect of considerably higher natural gas prices and the roles of other variables. However, many Alberta residential electricity consumers tend to attribute their higher electricity prices to factors such as market power and manipulation associated with restructuring. Since the effects of restructuring on electricity prices cannot be evaluated by simply comparing prices before and after it occurred, the main objective of this thesis is to determine what electricity prices would have been under continued regulation, and to compare them with what was actually observed. To determine these counterfactual electricity prices, a structural model of the determinants of Alberta residential electricity prices is developed, estimated for the prerestructuring period, and used to forecast (counterfactual) prices in the postrestructuring period. However, in forming these forecasts it is necessary to separately account for changes in explanatory variables that could be viewed as occurring due to the restructuring (endogenous) from those changes that would Since the effects of restructuring on electricity prices cannot be evaluated by simply comparing prices before and after it occurred, the main objective of this thesis is to determine what electricity prices would have been under continued regulation, and to compare them with what was actually observed. To determine these counterfactual electricity prices, a structural model of the determinants of Alberta residential

  7. The price of electricity from private power producers

    SciTech Connect

    Kahn, E.; Milne, A.; Kito, S.

    1993-10-01

    The long-term wholesale electricity market is becoming increasingly competitive. Bidding for power contracts has become a dominant form of competition in this sector. The prices which emerge from this process have not been documented and compared in a systematic framework. This paper introduces a method to make such comparisons and illustrates it on a small sample of projects. This results show a wide range of prices for what is essentially the same technology, gas-fired combined cycle generation. The price range seems greater than what could be explained by transmission cost differences between high and low cost regions. For the smaller sample of coal-fired projects, price variation is substantially less. Further data collection and analysis should be able to help isolate more clearly what market or cost factors are responsible for the observed variation.

  8. Political economy and price ratio changes: Electric industry under transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidy, Mary E.

    This study began early in 2000, when the electric market was beginning to evolve from a vertical integrated industry to a market-driven, global industry where the generation portion of the industry was being sold to independent market-based companies. The beginnings of acquisitions, restructuring and re-alignments of the transmission and distribution systems were heightened during this period. In addition, as this study was underway, a tumultuous restructuring in California caused some proponents of deregulation to question the changes. The purpose of this study is to investigate price changes at the state level during the last 10 years (1990-2000). The conceptual framework is built on a study released in 1996. This study predicted lower prices as deregulation in the electric industry occurred and consumers had more choices in suppliers. In order to gain additional insight, the study is comprised of a quantitative analysis of price changes over time as well as a qualitative investigation of a certain geographic area. As a result of the quantitative analysis performed, the study has failed to reject the null hypothesis that deregulated states exhibited no difference in price ratios than those states that remain regulated. This was tested at the level of political influence (states with elected versus appointed) commissions. In fact, whether the population is segmented nationally, regionally, politically or by level of deregulation, price ratios have decreased from 1985-1996. National price ratios have been declining since the mid-1980s. A flattening of the trend for the last four years (1997-2000) may be due to the current retrenching as a result of the California deregulation experience. The qualitative section seeks to understand what influences electric prices have on regional economic development efforts. The interview results have determined that lower electric prices help to contribute to successful economic development activities, but they are not the

  9. Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015

    SciTech Connect

    1997-08-01

    The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated {open_quotes}cost-of-service{close_quotes} pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? This study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices.

  10. Electricity pricing in Korea: A study of pricing initiatives as positive contributors to the development process

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, L.J.

    1990-10-01

    The economic miracle'' in South Korea over the past three decades has been supported by a corresponding increase in electric generating capacity in a relatively short period of time, accomplished in a country with limited domestic energy resources and large commitments of capital to exported-oriented industries. Generating capacity increased nearly 12-fold in a 12-year period during the formative stages of Korea's development from 1962 to 1973 and more than 50-fold from 1962 to the present time. For capital- and energy-short developing countries, the Korean experience is a good example of the contribution of pricing-related initiatives to development of the power sector. Besides setting prices at a level sufficient to provide resources for the power sector, a number of initiatives designed to reduce the cost of electricity supply were implemented. These pricing-related initiatives were a significant source of resources for the power sector during the 1962--73 period. More recently, implementation of time-of-day pricing and enactment of legislation aimed at improving the performance of public enterprises significantly contributed to the efficiency of the power system.

  11. Auction development for the price-based electric power industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dekrajangpetch, Somgiat

    The restructuring of the electric power industry is to move away from the cost-based monopolistic environment of the past to the priced-based competitive environment. As the electric power industry is restructuring in many places, there are still many problems that need to be solved. The work in this dissertation contributes to solve some of the electric power auction problems. The majority of this work is aimed to help develop good markets. A LaGrangian relaxation (LR) Centralized Daily Commitment Auction (CDCA) has been implemented. It has been shown that the solution might not be optimal nor fair to some generation companies (GENCOs) when identical or similar generating units participate in a LR CDCA based auction. Supporting information for bidding strategies on how to change unit data to enhance the chances of bid acceptance has been developed. The majority of this work is based on Single Period Commodity Auction (SPCA). Alternative structures for the SPCA are outlined. Whether the optimal solution is degenerated is investigated. Good pricing criteria are summarized and the pricing method following good pricing criteria is developed. Electricity is generally considered as a homogeneous product. When availability level is used as additional characteristic to distinct electricity, electricity can be considered a heterogeneous product. The procedure to trade electricity as a heterogeneous product is developed. The SPCA is formulated as a linear program. The basic IPLP algorithm has been extended so that sensitivity analysis can be performed as in the simplex method. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine market reach. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is used in combination with the investigation of historical auction results to provide raw data for power system expansion. Market power is a critical issue in electric power deregulation. Firms with market power have an advantage over other competitor firms in terms of market reach. Various approaches to

  12. Price Incentivised Electric Vehicle Charge Control for Community Voltage Regulation

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, Damian; Baroncelli, Fabio; Fowler, Christopher; Boundy, David; Pratt, Annabelle

    2014-11-03

    With the growing availability of Electric Vehicles, there is a significant opportunity to use battery 'smart-charging' for voltage regulation. This work designs and experimentally evaluates a system for price-incentivised electric vehicle charging. The system is designed to eliminate negative impacts to the user while minimising the cost of charging and achieving a more favourable voltage behaviour throughout the local grid over time. The practical issues associated with a real-life deployment are identified and resolved. The efficacy of the system is evaluated in the challenging scenario in which EVs are deployed in six closely distributed homes, serviced by the same low voltage residential distribution feeder.

  13. Reversible solid oxide cells for bidirectional energy conversion in spot electricity and fuel markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarreal Singer, Diego

    The decarbonization of the energy system is one of the most complex and consequential challenges of the 21st century. Meeting this challenge will require the deployment of existing low carbon technologies at unprecedented scales and rates and will necessitate the development of new technologies that have the ability to transform variable renewable energy into high energy density products. Reversible Solid Oxide Cells (RSOCs) are electrochemical devices that can function both as fuel cells or electrolyzers: in fuel cell mode, RSOCs consume a chemical fuel (H2, CO, CH4, etc.) to produce electrical power, while in electrolysis mode they consume electric power and chemical inputs (H2O, CO2) to produce a chemical fuel (H2, CO, CH4, etc.). As such, RSOC systems can be thought of as flexible "energy hubs" that have unique potential to bridge the low power density renewable infrastructure with that of high energy density fuels in an efficient, dynamic, and bidirectional fashion. This dissertation explores the different operational sensitivities and design trade-offs of a methane based RSOC system, investigates the optimum operating strategies for a system that adapts to variations in the hourly spot electricity and fuel prices in Western Denmark, and provides an economic analysis of the system under a wide variety of design assumptions, operational strategies, and fuel and electricity market structures. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  14. Customer response to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, C.; Hopper, N.; Sezgen, O.; Moezzi, M.; Bharvirkar, R.; Neenan, B.; Boisvert, R.; Cappers, P.; Pratt, D.

    2004-07-01

    There is growing interest in policies, programs and tariffs that encourage customer loads to provide demand response (DR) to help discipline wholesale electricity markets. Proposals at the retail level range from eliminating fixed rate tariffs as the default service for some or all customer groups to reinstituting utility-sponsored load management programs with market-based inducements to curtail. Alternative rate designs include time-of-use (TOU), day-ahead real-time pricing (RTP), critical peak pricing, and even pricing usage at real-time market balancing prices. Some Independent System Operators (ISOs) have implemented their own DR programs whereby load curtailment capabilities are treated as a system resource and are paid an equivalent value. The resulting load reductions from these tariffs and programs provide a variety of benefits, including limiting the ability of suppliers to increase spot and long-term market-clearing prices above competitive levels (Neenan et al., 2002; Boren stein, 2002; Ruff, 2002). Unfortunately, there is little information in the public domain to characterize and quantify how customers actually respond to these alternative dynamic pricing schemes. A few empirical studies of large customer RTP response have shown modest results for most customers, with a few very price-responsive customers providing most of the aggregate response (Herriges et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 2002). However, these studies examined response to voluntary, two-part RTP programs implemented by utilities in states without retail competition.1 Furthermore, the researchers had limited information on customer characteristics so they were unable to identify the drivers to price response. In the absence of a compelling characterization of why customers join RTP programs and how they respond to prices, many initiatives to modernize retail electricity rates seem to be stymied.

  15. Electricity pricing policy: A neo-institutional, developmental and cross-national policy design map

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koundinya, Sridarshan Umesh

    This dissertation explores the role of ideas and ideology in the mental policy design maps of regulators in the US and in India. The research approach is to describe the regulatory design process in the history of the US electric industry from a neo-institutional and developmental perspective. And then to use the insights of such a study to suggest policy options to a sample of Indian experts. A regulatory process model explores the interactions among normative values, regulatory instruments and historical phases in policy design. A spectrum of seven regulatory instruments--subsidized rates, average cost pricing, marginal cost pricing, time-of-use pricing, ramsey pricing, incentive regulation and spot pricing is examined. A neo-institutional perspective characterizes the process of institutionalizing these regulatory instruments as a design process that infuses them with values beyond mere technical requirements. The process model includes normative values such as efficiency, fairness, free choice and political feasibility. These values arise from an analytical classification of various market metaphors debated in the history of economic thought. The theory of development and co-evolution applied to the history of electricity regulation yields a typology of evolutionary phases in the US. The typology describes hierarchically emergent relationships between supply and demand and among the normative values. The theory hypothesizes technologically contingent relationships between pricing policies and normative values in the historical phases of dependence (or rural), independence (or urban) and interdependence (or informational). The contents of this model are represented as related elements in a policy design map that simplifies the process of designing regulatory instruments in the US. This neo-institutional, developmental policy design map was used to design a survey instrument. The survey was conducted among electricity experts in India to test the hypothesized

  16. Price Responsive Demand in New York Wholesale Electricity Market using OpenADR

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Joyce Jihyun; Kiliccote, Sila

    2012-06-01

    In New York State, the default electricity pricing for large customers is Mandatory Hourly Pricing (MHP), which is charged based on zonal day-ahead market price for energy. With MHP, retail customers can adjust their building load to an economically optimal level according to hourly electricity prices. Yet, many customers seek alternative pricing options such as fixed rates through retail access for their electricity supply. Open Automated Demand Response (OpenADR) is an XML (eXtensible Markup Language) based information exchange model that communicates price and reliability information. It allows customers to evaluate hourly prices and provide demand response in an automated fashion to minimize electricity costs. This document shows how OpenADR can support MHP and facilitate price responsive demand for large commercial customers in New York City.

  17. White noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on stock prices of a publicly traded company: A case study cross-correlation analysis based on green energy management theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Peter M.

    The purpose of this study was to examine white noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on the stock prices of a green energy company. Epistemological, Phenomenological, Axiological and Ontological assumptions of Green Energy Management (GEM) Theory were utilized for selecting Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) as the case study. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was used as a control for triangulation purposes. The period of time examined was between January of 1999 and December of 2008. Monthly stock prices for APD and XOM for the ten year period of time were collected from the New York Stock Exchange. Monthly U.S. crude oil spot prices for the ten year period of time were collected from the US Energy Information Administration. The data was entered into SPSS 17.0 software in order to conduct cross-correlation analysis. The six cross-correlation assumptions were satisfied in order to conduct a Cross-correlation Mirror Test (CCMT). The CCMT established the lag time direction and verified that U.S. crude oil spot prices serve as white noise for stock prices of APD and XOM. The Theory of Relative Weakness was employed in order to analyze the results. A 2 year period of time between December, 2006 and December, 2008 was examined. The correlation coefficient r = - .155 indicates that U.S. crude oil spot prices lead APD stock prices by 4 months. During the same 2 year period of time, U.S. crude oil spot prices lead XOM stock prices by 4 months at r = -.283. XOM stock prices and APD stock prices were positively correlated with 0 lag in time with a positive r = .566. The 4 month cycle was an exact match between APD stock prices, XOM stock prices and U.S. crude oil spot prices. The 4 month cycle was due to the random price fluctuation of U.S. crude oil spot prices that obscured the true stock prices of APD and XOM for the 2 year period of time.

  18. Pricing Theory of Derivatives in Financial Engineering and the Problems on the Application to Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misawa, Tetsuya

    Recently, the wholesale electric power exchange has been founded in Japan. With the progress of the electricity market, some management schemes of electricity price risk will be necessary. In financial markets or the preceding electricity markets, various “derivatives" on assets in the markets are often used as management tools to hedge the price risk. This paper gives a short commentary on some fundamental concepts of the derivatives and the pricing theory in the financial engineering, and discusses the problems on the financial engineering approach to electricity derivatives.

  19. Electricity pricing as a demand-side management strategy: Western lessons for developing countries

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, L.J.

    1990-12-01

    Electric utilities in the Western world have increasingly realized that load commitments can be met not only by constructing new generating plants but also by influencing electricity demand. This demand-side management (DSM) process requires that electric utilities promote measures on the customer's side of the meter to directly or indirectly influence electricity consumption to meet desired load objectives. An important demand-side option to achieve these load objectives is innovative electricity pricing, both by itself and as a financial incentive for other demand-site measures. This study explores electricity pricing as a DSM strategy, addressing four questions in the process: What is the Western experience with DSM in general and electricity pricing in particular Do innovative pricing strategies alter the amount and pattern of electricity consumption Do the benefits of these pricing strategies outweigh the costs of implementation What are future directions in electricity pricing Although DSM can be used to promote increases in electricity consumption for electric utilities with excess capacity as well as to slow demand growth for capacity-short utilities, emphasis here is placed on the latter. The discussion should be especially useful for electric utilities in developing countries that are exploring alternatives to capacity expansion to meet current and future electric power demand.

  20. Optimal Electricity Charge Strategy Based on Price Elasticity of Demand for Users

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xin; Xu, Daidai; Zang, Chuanzhi

    The price elasticity is very important for the prediction of electricity demand. This paper mainly establishes the price elasticity coefficient for electricity in single period and inter-temporal. Then, a charging strategy is established based on these coefficients. To evaluate the strategy proposed, simulations of the two elastic coefficients are carried out based on the history data of a certain region.

  1. Market power in electric power markets: Indications of competitiveness in spatial prices for wholesale electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denton, Michael John

    The issue of market delineation and power in the wholesale electric energy market is explored using three separate approaches: two of these are analyses of spatial pricing data to explore the functional size of the markets, and the third is a series of experimental tests of the effects of different cost structures and market mechanisms on oligopoly strength in those markets. An equilibrium model of spatial network competition is shown to yield linear relationships between spatial prices. A data set comprising two years of spatial weekly peak and off-peak prices and weather for 6 locations in the Western States Coordinating Council and the Southwest Power Pool is subjected to a pairwise cointegration analysis. The use of dummy variables to account the the flow directions is found to significantly improve model performance. The second analytical technique utilizes the extraction of principal components from a spatial price correlation matrix to identify the extent of natural markets. One year of daily price observations for eleven locations within the WSCC is compiled and eigenvectors are extracted and subjected to oblique rotation, each of which is then interpreted as representing a separate geographic market. The results show that two distinct natural markets, correlated at 84%, account for over 96% of the variation in the spatial prices in the WSSC. Together, the findings support the assertion that the wholesale electricity market in the Western U.S. is large and highly competitive. The experimental analysis utilizes a radial three node network in which suppliers located at the outer nodes sell to buyers located at the central node. The parameterization captures the salient characteristics of the existing bulk power markets, and includes cyclical demand, transmission losses, as well as fixed and avoidable fixed costs for all agents. Treatments varied the number of sellers, the avoidable fixed cost structures, and the trading mechanism. Results indicated that

  2. A stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties

    DOE PAGES

    Zavala, Victor M.; Kim, Kibaek; Anitescu, Mihai; ...

    2017-03-16

    We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions, and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network. We prove that when the price distortions are zero, day-ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real-time counterparts. The undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochasticmore » settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements. Finally, we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits.« less

  3. Optimal pricing and investment in the electricity sector in Tamil Nadu, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murthy, Ranganath Srinivas

    2001-07-01

    Faulty pricing policies and inadequate investment in the power sector are responsible for the chronic power shortages that plague Tamil Nadu and the rest of India. Formulae for optimal pricing rules are derived for a social welfare maximizing Electricity Board which sells electricity that is used both as an intermediate, and as a final good. Because of distributional constraints, the optimal prices deviate systematically from marginal costs. Optimal relative price-marginal cost differentials are computed for Tamil Nadu, and are found to indicate a lower degree of subsidization than the prevailing prices. The rationalization of electricity tariffs would very likely increase the Board's revenues. The cost-effectiveness of nuclear power in India is examined by comparing actual data for the Madras Atomic Power Project and the Singrauli coal-fired thermal power station. The conventional (non-environmental) costs of power generation are compared at both market prices and shadow prices, calculated according to the UNIDO guidelines for project evaluation. Despite favorable assumptions for the costs of the nuclear plant, coal had a decided edge over nuclear in Tamil Nadu. Remarkably, the edge varied little when market prices are replaced by shadow prices in the computations. With regard to the environmental costs, far too much remains unknown. More research is therefore needed on the environmental impacts of both types of power generation before a final choice can be made.

  4. Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

  5. A comparison of pay-as-bid and marginal pricing in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yongjun

    This thesis investigates the behaviour of electricity markets under marginal and pay-as-bid pricing. Marginal pricing is believed to yield the maximum social welfare and is currently implemented by most electricity markets. However, in view of recent electricity market failures, pay-as-bid has been extensively discussed as a possible alternative to marginal pricing. In this research, marginal and pay-as-bid pricing have been analyzed in electricity markets with both perfect and imperfect competition. The perfect competition case is studied under both exact and uncertain system marginal cost prediction. The comparison of the two pricing methods is conducted through two steps: (i) identify the best offer strategy of the generating companies (gencos); (ii) analyze the market performance under these optimum genco strategies. The analysis results together with numerical simulations show that pay-as-bid and marginal pricing are equivalent in a perfect market with exact system marginal cost prediction. In perfect markets with uncertain demand prediction, the two pricing methods are also equivalent but in an expected value sense. If we compare from the perspective of second order statistics, all market performance measures exhibit much lower values under pay-as-bid than under marginal pricing. The risk of deviating from the mean is therefore much higher under marginal pricing than under pay-as-bid. In an imperfect competition market with exact demand prediction, the research shows that pay-as-bid pricing yields lower consumer payments and lower genco profits. This research provides quantitative evidence that challenges some common claims about pay-as-bid pricing. One is that under pay-as-bid, participants would soon learn how to offer so as to obtain the same or higher profits than what they would have obtained under marginal pricing. This research however shows that, under pay-as-bid, participants can at best earn the same profit or expected profit as under marginal

  6. Study on Stochastic Optimal Electric Power Procurement Strategies with Uncertain Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakchai, Siripatanakulkhajorn; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

    The player in deregulated electricity markets can be categorized into three groups of GENCO (Generator Companies), TRNASCO (Transmission Companies), DISCO (Distribution Companies). This research focuses on the role of Distribution Companies, which purchase electricity from market at randomly fluctuating prices, and provide it to their customers at given fixed prices. Therefore Distribution companies have to take the risk stemming from price fluctuation of electricity instead of the customers. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electricity procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing the mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the value of a long-term bilateral contract of electricity trade, and also a project of combination of the bilateral contract and power generation with their own generators for procuring electric power in deregulated market.

  7. Short run effects of a price on carbon dioxide emissions from U.S. electric generators.

    PubMed

    Newcomer, Adam; Blumsack, Seth A; Apt, Jay; Lave, Lester B; Morgan, M Granger

    2008-05-01

    The price of delivered electricity will rise if generators have to pay for carbon dioxide emissions through an implicit or explicit mechanism. There are two main effects that a substantial price on CO2 emissions would have in the short run (before the generation fleet changes significantly). First, consumers would react to increased price by buying less, described by their price elasticity of demand. Second, a price on CO2 emissions would change the order in which existing generators are economically dispatched, depending on their carbon dioxide emissions and marginal fuel prices. Both the price increase and dispatch changes depend on the mix of generation technologies and fuels in the region available for dispatch, although the consumer response to higher prices is the dominant effect. We estimate that the instantaneous imposition of a price of $35 per metric ton on CO2 emissions would lead to a 10% reduction in CO2 emissions in PJM and MISO at a price elasticity of -0.1. Reductions in ERCOT would be about one-third as large. Thus, a price on CO2 emissions that has been shown in earlier workto stimulate investment in new generation technology also provides significant CO2 reductions before new technology is deployed at large scale.

  8. Piezo-Electric Hypothesis for Hot Spot Formation Leading to Detonation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montgomery, D. S.; Cawkwell, M. J.; Ramos, K. J.

    2015-06-01

    The impact to detonation sequence has been a long standing mystery in high explosives (HE). It is widely recognized that detonation begins in spatially-localized ``hot spots'' where chemistry initiates, but the physical mechanisms leading to hot spot formation are unknown. Here we revisit an old hypothesis, first suggested by Maycock and Grabenstein, that piezo-electric effects may be the cause of hot spot formation since most solid HE materials are observed to be highly piezo-electric. In this scenario, shock-induced pressure leads to electric fields of 100's MV/m, sufficient for dielectric breakdown and breaking chemical bonds, rather than via thermal effects. Extrapolation of statically measured piezo-electric coefficients for several HE materials suggests that shock pressures > 100-kbar might lead to field strengths > 100 - 1000 MV/m, but no definitive experimental proof has been obtained to support this. Here we discuss possible experiments to test this hypothesis by measuring the electric field in dynamic HE experiments correlated with hot spot formation. Work performed under the auspices of DOE by LANL under contract DE-AC52-06NA25396.

  9. An analysis of the impact of Renewable Portfolio Standards on residential electricity prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Andrew James

    A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) has become a popular policy for states seeking to increase the amount of renewable energy generated for consumers of electricity. The success of these state programs has prompted debate about the viability of a national RPS. The impact that these state level policies have had on the price consumers pay for electricity is the subject of some debate. Several federal organizations have conducted studies of the impact that a national RPS would have on electricity prices paid by consumers. NREL and US EIA utilize models that analyze the inputs in electricity generation to examine the future price impact of changes to electricity generation and show marginal increases in prices paid by end users. Other empirical research has produced similar results, showing that the existence of an RPS increases the price of electricity. These studies miss important aspects of RPS policies that may change how we view these price increases from RPS policies. By examining the previous empirical research on RPS policies, this study seeks to identify the controls necessary to build an effective model. These controls are utilized in a fixed effects model that seeks to show how the controls and variables of interest impact electricity prices paid by residential consumers of electricity. This study utilizes a panel data set from 1990 to 2014 to analyze the impact of these policies controlling for generating capacity, the regulatory status of utilities in each state, demographic characteristics of the states, and fuel prices. The results of the regressions indicate that prices are likely to be higher in states that have an RPS compared to states that do not have such a policy. Several of the characteristics mentioned above have price impacts, and so discussing RPS policies in the context of other factors that contribute to electricity prices is essential. In particular, the regulatory status of utilities in each state is an important determinate of price as

  10. Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis for clustering structures of electricity price periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Fang; Liao, Gui-ping; Li, Jian-hui; Li, Xiao-chun; Zhou, Tie-jun

    2013-11-01

    A new model is proposed to investigate the structure of electricity price in different time periods. A popular method - the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method is employed to analyze the features achieved from three types of electricity price data after filtering some trends by Fourier detrended fluctuation function. Twelve multifractal parameters are calculated and selected as the characteristic indicators for comparison. Moreover, the minimum number of indicators is determined so that the discriminant accuracy reaches maximum based on Fisher’s linear discriminant algorithm (Fisher’s LDA) for each time period. These indicators form a multi-dimensional space, in which each point represents a price time series. This allows us to cluster the three price time periods, namely, the low price time periods, the average price time periods and the peak price time periods. Fisher’s LDA is employed to evaluate the discriminant accuracy on these three kinds of time periods. Our analysis is then applied to the data in California1999-2000 and PJM2001-2002 electricity markets to demonstrate the applicability of our methods.

  11. An Ammeter That Indicates Electric Current by the Movement of a Light Spot, and Voltage by the Colour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kamata, Masahiro; Hara, Chiho

    2005-01-01

    A new type of ammeter (PikoPikoII) has been developed which indicates the measured current by the movement of a spot of light and the voltage by the colour of the spot. Since this tool can make students feel as if they are observing a visual image of electricity, it is easy to prepare schematic explanations on electric circuits that match the…

  12. An Ammeter That Indicates Electric Current by the Movement of a Light Spot, and Voltage by the Colour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kamata, Masahiro; Hara, Chiho

    2005-01-01

    A new type of ammeter (PikoPikoII) has been developed which indicates the measured current by the movement of a spot of light and the voltage by the colour of the spot. Since this tool can make students feel as if they are observing a visual image of electricity, it is easy to prepare schematic explanations on electric circuits that match the…

  13. Estimation of conjectural variation of competitive electricity prices and consumer response

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Z.; Lusan, D.; Sparrow, F.T.

    1999-11-01

    This paper reviews major existing models for quantifying competitive electricity pricing strategies. Most of them are game models that assume a set of market behaviors for producers. The competitive producers` behavior is called conjectural variations in economics. Based on observations of the evolving deregulated electricity markets around the world, the paper concludes that none of the existing models can fully explain electricity market power and its impact on prices. One reason is because producers, depending on market conditions, sometimes adopt strategies that violate the assumption of least-cost (i.e., marginal cost) dispatch. Instead, this paper proposes a statistical method for estimating the combined effect of the consumers` responses and the producers` strategies on prices in electricity markets. Market data from the California power exchange (Cal-PX) are used to test the model that produces reasonably good results.

  14. Photovoltaic ground fault and blind spot electrical simulations.

    SciTech Connect

    Flicker, Jack David; Johnson, Jay

    2013-06-01

    Ground faults in photovoltaic (PV) systems pose a fire and shock hazard. To mitigate these risks, AC-isolated, DC grounded PV systems in the United States use Ground Fault Protection Devices (GFPDs), e.g., fuses, to de-energize the PV system when there is a ground fault. Recently the effectiveness of these protection devices has come under question because multiple fires have started when ground faults went undetected. In order to understand the limitations of fuse-based ground fault protection in PV systems, analytical and numerical simulations of different ground faults were performed. The numerical simulations were conducted with Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis (SPICE) using a circuit model of the PV system which included the modules, wiring, switchgear, grounded or ungrounded components, and the inverter. The derivation of the SPICE model and the results of parametric fault current studies are provided with varying array topologies, fuse sizes, and fault impedances. Closed-form analytical approximations for GFPD currents from faults to the grounded current carrying conductor-known as %E2%80%9Cblind spot%E2%80%9D ground faults-are derived to provide greater understanding of the influence of array impedances on fault currents. The behavior of the array during various ground faults is studied for a range of ground fault fuse sizes to determine if reducing the size of the fuse improves ground fault detection sensitivity. The results of the simulations show that reducing the amperage rating of the protective fuse does increase fault current detection sensitivity without increasing the likelihood of nuisance trips to a degree. Unfortunately, this benefit reaches a limit as fuses become smaller and their internal resistance increases to the point of becoming a major element in the fault current circuit.

  15. Effects of new export rules, a spotted owl plan, and recession on timber prices and shipments from the Douglas-fir region.

    Treesearch

    Donald F. Flora; Wendy J. McGInnls

    1992-01-01

    Several recently emplaced and potential Northwest timber policies are causing considerable market turbulence. Estimated were price and volume changes induced by three supply-side policies (a state-log export embargo, forest replanning, and spotted owl reservations) and the demand slide of 1990-91. Impacts were gauged separately and together by using a four-sector model...

  16. Are price caps the answer for electric utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Silverman, L.P. ); Wenner, D.L.; Peters, R.S. )

    1991-04-15

    There is no widely acceptable alternative to traditional rate-base/rate-of-return regulation. The industry is keenly interested in the experiment currently unfolding in the telephone industry: the price cap approach being followed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in regulating AT and T, and by many states in regulating local telephone companies. This approach offers an interesting and possibly useful alternative to traditional utility regulation.

  17. Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S.

    1999-08-01

    This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.

  18. Effect of electrical spot welding on load deflection rate of orthodontic wires

    PubMed Central

    Alavi, Shiva; Abrishami, Arezoo

    2015-01-01

    Background: One of the methods used for joining metals together is welding, which can be carried out using different techniques such as electric spot welding. This study evaluated the effect of electric spot welding on the load deflection rate of stainless steel and chromium-cobalt orthodontic wires. Materials and Methods: In this experimental-laboratory study, load deflection rate of 0.016 × 0.022 inch stainless steel and chromium cobalt wires were evaluated in five groups (n =18): group one: Stainless steel wires, group two: chromium-cobalt wires, group three: stainless steel wires welded to stainless steel wires, group four: Stainless steel wires welded to chromium-cobalt wires, group five: chromium-cobalt wire welded to chromium-cobalt wires. Afterward, the forces induced by the samples in 0.5 mm, 1 mm, 1.5 mm deflection were measured using a universal testing machine. Then mean force measured for each group was compared with other groups. The data were analyzed using repeated measure analysis of variance (ANOVA), one-way ANOVA, and paired t-test by the SPSS software. The significance level was set as 0.05. Results: The Tukey test showed that there were significant differences between the load deflection rates of welded groups compared to control ones (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Considering the limitation of this study, the electric spot welding process performed on stainless steel and chromium-cobalt wires increased their load deflection rates. PMID:26604957

  19. Automatic control of electric thermal storage (heat) under real-time pricing. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Daryanian, B.; Tabors, R.D.; Bohn, R.E.

    1995-01-01

    Real-time pricing (RTP) can be used by electric utilities as a control signal for responsive demand-side management (DSM) programs. Electric thermal storage (ETS) systems in buildings provide the inherent flexibility needed to take advantage of variations in prices. Under RTP, optimal performance for ETS operations is achieved under market conditions where reductions in customers` costs coincide with the lowering of the cost of service for electric utilities. The RTP signal conveys the time-varying actual marginal cost of the electric service to customers. The RTP rate is a combination of various cost components, including marginal generation fuel and maintenance costs, marginal costs of transmission and distribution losses, and marginal quality of supply and transmission costs. This report describes the results of an experiment in automatic control of heat storage systems under RTP during the winter seasons of 1989--90 and 1990--91.

  20. Application of games with incomplete information for pricing electricity in deregulated power pools

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrero, R.W.; Rivera, J.F.; Shahidehpour, S.M.

    1998-02-01

    The authors present a game theoretical approach to the problem of pricing electricity in deregulated energy marketplaces. They assume that an Independent System Operator receives bids by Pool participants and defines transactions among participants by looking for the minimum price that satisfies the demand in the Pool. The competition among Pool participants is modeled as a non-cooperative game with incomplete information. They assume that each Pool participant knows its own operation costs but does not know his opponents` operation costs. The game with incomplete information is transformed into a game with complete, but imperfect, information and solved using the Nash equilibrium idea. The approach presented in this paper is geared towards providing support for pricing electricity in deregulated Pools.

  1. Electricity price impacts of alternative Greenhouse gas emission cap-and-trade programs

    SciTech Connect

    Edelston, Bruce; Armstrong, Dave; Kirsch, Laurence D.; Morey, Mathew J.

    2009-07-15

    Limits on greenhouse gas emissions would raise the prices of the goods and services that require such emissions for their production, including electricity. Looking at a variety of emission limit cases and scenarios for selling or allocating allowances to load-serving entities, the authors estimate how the burden of greenhouse gas limits are likely to be distributed among electricity consumers in different states. (author)

  2. Impacts of Regional Electricity Prices and Building Type on the Economics of Commercial Photovoltaic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, S.; Campbell, C.; Clark, N.

    2012-12-01

    To identify the impacts of regional electricity prices and building type on the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, 207 rate structures across 77 locations and 16 commercial building types were evaluated. Results for expected solar value are reported for each location and building type. Aggregated results are also reported, showing general trends across various impact categories.

  3. Implications of Lower Natural Gas Prices for Electric Generators in the Southeast, The

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    This supplement to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) May 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) focuses on changes in the utilization of coal- and natural-gas-fired generation capacity in the electric utility sector as the differential between delivered fuel prices narrows.

  4. Implications of Lower Natural Gas Prices for Electric Generators in the Southeast, The

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    This supplement to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) May 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) focuses on changes in the utilization of coal- and natural-gas-fired generation capacity in the electric utility sector as the differential between delivered fuel prices narrows.

  5. Relative Pricing of Publicly Traded U.S. Electric Utility Companies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jewczyn, Nicholas Stephen

    In the financial turmoil of 2008, U.S. firms reported debt-ratios that differed from the debt-ratios calculated from balance sheets. The problem is that investors bought common stock expecting initial investment return and lost money when companies delisted. The purpose of this quantitative study was to determine sample securities pricing with the application of synthetic assets and debt accrued. Addressed in the research questions was whether those securities were (a) underpriced compared with return-on-assets (ROA), (b) overpriced compared with ROA, (c) a debt-ratio higher than 60% and also overpriced, (d) underpriced with a synthetic asset added, or (e) related by relative pricing to variant pricing and market capitalization. The study's base theory was Pan's efficient market hypothesis (EMH) of security price prediction of market prices versus model prices. The data from the financial statements of 16 publicly traded U.S. electric utility companies were analyzed via correlations and multiple regression analyses to determine securities pricing and suitability. The findings from the analyses of the sample's variables of market price, book value, market-to-book, and study constructed variables from those variable data were statistically significant. The alternate hypotheses were accepted for all 5 research questions since the analytical operationalization of the hypothetical constructs led to significant relationships. Results suggest that the use of more pricing determinants in securities evaluation may lead to investors losing less money and earning the expected returns for a more efficient capital market, leading to a stronger economy and macroeconomic stability.

  6. Time-of-use electricity price effects: summary I

    SciTech Connect

    Miedema, A.K.; White, S.B.

    1980-06-01

    In 1975 the Federal Energy Administration, now the Department of Energy (DOE), initiated 16 rate-demonstration projects. This report summarizes a standardized analysis of data from the residential portion of six of those projects: Arizona, Connecticut, Ohio, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and the Blue Ridge Electric Membership Corporation study of the North Carolina project. A brief description of the DOE rate-demonstration program is provided along with a statement of RTI's objectives in the analysis of TOU rate effects. The report also summarizes the individual project results, which indicate that the experimental TOU rates generally reduced both peak-period and total electricity usage on both average and peak days, since off-peak usage was usually about the same for both TOU and control customers. Analysis methods and data limitations are fully described and additional details on project specific results are given. Some qualitative conclusions and impressions about TOU rates that have been suggested by these analyses are offered.

  7. Optimization models and techniques for implementation and pricing of electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madrigal Martinez, Marcelino

    Vertically integrated electric power systems extensively use optimization models and solution techniques to guide their optimal operation and planning. The advent of electric power systems re-structuring has created needs for new optimization tools and the revision of the inherited ones from the vertical integration era into the market environment. This thesis presents further developments on the use of optimization models and techniques for implementation and pricing of primary electricity markets. New models, solution approaches, and price setting alternatives are proposed. Three different modeling groups are studied. The first modeling group considers simplified continuous and discrete models for power pool auctions driven by central-cost minimization. The direct solution of the dual problems, and the use of a Branch-and-Bound algorithm to solve the primal, allows to identify the effects of disequilibrium, and different price setting alternatives over the existence of multiple solutions. It is shown that particular pricing rules worsen the conflict of interest that arise when multiple solutions exist under disequilibrium. A price-setting alternative based on dual variables is shown to diminish such conflict. The second modeling group considers the unit commitment problem. An interior-point/cutting-plane method is proposed for the solution of the dual problem. The new method has better convergence characteristics and does not suffer from the parameter tuning drawback as previous methods The robustness characteristics of the interior-point/cutting-plane method, combined with a non-uniform price setting alternative, show that the conflict of interest is diminished when multiple near optimal solutions exist. The non-uniform price setting alternative is compared to a classic average pricing rule. The last modeling group concerns to a new type of linear network-constrained clearing system models for daily markets for power and spinning reserve. A new model and

  8. Upper Mantle Composition Beneath the Petit-Spot Area in Northwestern Pacific: Insights From Electrical Conductivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baba, K.; Ichiki, M.; Abe, N.; Hirano, N.

    2007-12-01

    The mantle composition beneath the petit-spot area, where is about 500 km offshore from Japan Trench in northwestern Pacific, is discussed through electrical conductivity obtained by seafloor magnetotelluric (MT) survey. The seafloor MT data were collected using ocean bottom electromagnetometers (OBEMs) at four sites with the spacing of 100-150 km, between May and August, 2005. The survey was conducted as a part of the petit-spot multidsciplinary project. The petit-spot is young volcanic activity on very old (~130 Ma) oceanic plate characterized as a clump of small knolls which erupted strong to moderate alkaline basalt. This volcanic field is associated with neither any plate boundaries nor hot spots. To elucidate the magma generation process of this new-type volcanic activity, a collaborative study of various geophysical and geochemical approaches has been carried out. The MT survey aims to constrain the physical state of the lithosphere and asthenosphere where the petit-spot melt is probably generated. The acquired electromagnetic field variation data were analyzed and the MT responses, which is the transfer function between the electric and magnetic fields, were obtained. The effect for the ocean-land distribution and seafloor topography on the MT responses was modeled and stripped. As the result, the corrected responses indicate that the lateral heterogeneity in electrical conductivity is less significant beneath the survey area. One- dimensional inversion study shows that the data require a peak in conductivity (0.05 S/m) at about 200 km depth. The mantle temperature may be calculated from the conductivity using an experimental result for dry olivine (Constable et al., 1992). The resultant temperature is about 1750 °C which is lower than the dry solidus for garnet peridotite. Instead, assuming the temperature as GDH1 model (Stein and Stein, 1992) for 130 Myr old mantle, we calculate water content in olivine using an experimental result by Wang et al. (2006

  9. Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California

    SciTech Connect

    Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Zarnikau, J.; Olson, A.; Jones, R.; Chait, M.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

    2014-10-01

    Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster, triggered by the March 11, 2011 earthquake, has led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. To maintain resource adequacy for a grid's reliable operation, one option is to expand conventional generation, whose marginal unit is typically fueled by natural-gas. Two timely and relevant questions thus arise for a deregulated wholesale electricity market: (1) what is the likely price increase due to a nuclear plant shutdown? and (2) what can be done to mitigate the price increase? To answer these questions, we perform a regression analysis of a large sample of hourly real-time electricity-market price data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) for the 33-month sample period of April 2010-December 2012. Our analysis indicates that the 2013 shutdown of the state's San Onofre plant raised the CAISO real-time hourly market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH, and that the price increases could have been offset by a combination of demand reduction, increasing solar generation, and increasing wind generation.

  10. A theoretical study of electrical and thermal response in resistance spot welding

    SciTech Connect

    Na, S.J.; Park, S.W.

    1996-08-01

    The effect of contact resistance including constriction and contamination resistance has been a major hurdle for the thermoelectrical analysis of the resistance spot welding process. In this paper, a simple model was suggested and used for calculating the electrical and thermal response of the resistance spot welding process to investigate the influence of contacting forces on the formation of weld nuggets. The electrode surface of the contact interface was assumed to be axisymmetric and its microasperities to have a trapezoidal cross-section. These microasperities were considered as the one-dimensional contact resistance elements in the finite element formulation. The contamination film was assumed to be a nonconducting oxide layer, which is very brittle, so that it is broken to some number of pieces when a contacting pressure is being applied. The crushed films were assumed to be distributed at regular intervals and to conserve their size and number during the welding process. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model can be successfully used to predict the effect of the contact resistance on the electrical and thermal response of the resistance spot welding process.

  11. Customer Strategies for Responding to Day-Ahead Market HourlyElectricity Pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, Chuck; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Boisvert, Dick; Cappers, Peter; Pratt, Donna; Butkins, Kim

    2005-08-25

    Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated as an economically efficient means to send price signals to customers to promote demand response (DR) (Borenstein 2002, Borenstein 2005, Ruff 2002). However, limited information exists that can be used to judge how effectively RTP actually induces DR, particularly in the context of restructured electricity markets. This report describes the second phase of a study of how large, non-residential customers' adapted to default-service day-ahead hourly pricing. The customers are located in upstate New York and served under Niagara Mohawk, A National Grid Company (NMPC)'s SC-3A rate class. The SC-3A tariff is a type of RTP that provides firm, day-ahead notice of hourly varying prices indexed to New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead market prices. The study was funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC)'s PIER program through the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC). NMPC's is the first and longest-running default-service RTP tariff implemented in the context of retail competition. The mix of NMPC's large customers exposed to day-ahead hourly prices is roughly 30% industrial, 25% commercial and 45% institutional. They have faced periods of high prices during the study period (2000-2004), thereby providing an opportunity to assess their response to volatile hourly prices. The nature of the SC-3A default service attracted competitive retailers offering a wide array of pricing and hedging options, and customers could also participate in demand response programs implemented by NYISO. The first phase of this study examined SC-3A customers' satisfaction, hedging choices and price response through in-depth customer market research and a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) demand model (Goldman et al. 2004). This second phase was undertaken to answer questions that remained unresolved and to quantify price response to a higher level of granularity. We accomplished these objectives with a second customer

  12. Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis of Market Clearing Price of electricity and SENSEX in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Dutta, Srimonti; Chakraborty, Sayantan

    2015-09-01

    This paper reports a study on the cross-correlation between the electric bid price and SENSEX using Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis (MF-DXA). MF-DXA is a very rigorous and robust technique for assessment of cross-correction between two non-linear time series. The study reveals power law cross-correlation between Market Clearing Price (MCP) and SENSEX which suggests that a change in the value of one can create a subjective change in the value of the other.

  13. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG E's experimental TOU rates

    SciTech Connect

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers' time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer's demand curves determine the customer's choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas Electric Company's experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility's revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG E's experiment decreased PG E's profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  14. Essays on microgrids, asymmetric pricing and market power in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo Prete, Chiara

    This dissertation presents four studies of the electricity industry. The first and second essays use economic-engineering models to assess different aspects of microgrid penetration in regional electricity markets, while the last two studies contain empirical analyses aimed at evaluating the performance of wholesale electricity markets. Chapter 2 develops a framework to quantify economic, environmental, efficiency and reliability impacts of different power production scenarios in a regional system, focusing on the interaction of microgrids with the existing transmission and distribution grid. The setting is the regional network formed by Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. The study presents simulations of power market outcomes under various policies and levels of microgrid penetration, and evaluates them using a diverse set of metrics. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between a microgrid and a regulated electric utility in a regional electricity market. I consider the interaction among the utility, the microgrid developer and consumers in the framework of cooperative game theory (assuming exchangeable utility), and use regional market models to simulate scenarios in which microgrid introduction may or may not be socially beneficial. Under the assumptions of this chapter, customer participation is essential to the development of socially beneficial microgrids, while the utility has little or no gain from it. Discussed incentives to avoid that utilities block microgrid entry include additional revenue drivers related to microgrid connection, decoupling and performance-based mechanisms targeted at service quality. When prices are below marginal costs of utility provided power, microgrid development may be socially beneficial, but unprofitable for microgrid customers and its developer. By imposing lower charges and higher remuneration for its services, the regulator could ensure that microgrid value is positive, without adversely impacting the utility

  15. Controlling market power and price spikes in electricity networks: Demand-side bidding

    PubMed Central

    Rassenti, Stephen J.; Smith, Vernon L.; Wilson, Bart J.

    2003-01-01

    In this article we report an experiment that examines how demand-side bidding can discipline generators in a market for electric power. First we develop a treatment without demand-side bidding; two large firms are allocated baseload and intermediate cost generators such that either firm might unilaterally withhold the capacity of its intermediate cost generators from the market to benefit from the supracompetitive prices that would result from only selling its baseload units. In a converse treatment, ownership of some of the intermediate cost generators is transferred from each of these firms to two other firms such that no one firm could unilaterally restrict output to spawn supracompetitive prices. Having established a well controlled data set with price spikes paralleling those observed in the naturally occurring economy, we also extend the design to include demand-side bidding. We find that demand-side bidding completely neutralizes the exercise of market power and eliminates price spikes even in the presence of structural market power. PMID:16576750

  16. Controlling market power and price spikes in electricity networks: Demand-side bidding.

    PubMed

    Rassenti, Stephen J; Smith, Vernon L; Wilson, Bart J

    2003-03-04

    In this article we report an experiment that examines how demand-side bidding can discipline generators in a market for electric power. First we develop a treatment without demand-side bidding; two large firms are allocated baseload and intermediate cost generators such that either firm might unilaterally withhold the capacity of its intermediate cost generators from the market to benefit from the supracompetitive prices that would result from only selling its baseload units. In a converse treatment, ownership of some of the intermediate cost generators is transferred from each of these firms to two other firms such that no one firm could unilaterally restrict output to spawn supracompetitive prices. Having established a well controlled data set with price spikes paralleling those observed in the naturally occurring economy, we also extend the design to include demand-side bidding. We find that demand-side bidding completely neutralizes the exercise of market power and eliminates price spikes even in the presence of structural market power.

  17. Net air emissions from electric vehicles: the effect of carbon price and charging strategies.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Scott B; Whitacre, J F; Apt, Jay

    2011-03-01

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may become part of the transportation fleet on time scales of a decade or two. We calculate the electric grid load increase and emissions due to vehicle battery charging in PJM and NYISO with the current generation mix, the current mix with a $50/tonne CO(2) price, and this case but with existing coal generators retrofitted with 80% CO(2) capture. We also examine all new generation being natural gas or wind+gas. PHEV fleet percentages between 0.4 and 50% are examined. Vehicles with small (4 kWh) and large (16 kWh) batteries are modeled with driving patterns from the National Household Transportation Survey. Three charging strategies and three scenarios for future electric generation are considered. When compared to 2020 CAFE standards, net CO(2) emissions in New York are reduced by switching from gasoline to electricity; coal-heavy PJM shows somewhat smaller benefits unless coal units are fitted with CCS or replaced with lower CO(2) generation. NO(X) is reduced in both RTOs, but there is upward pressure on SO(2) emissions or allowance prices under a cap.

  18. Technological renovation of thermal power plants as a long-term check factor of electricity price growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veselov, F. V.; Novikova, T. V.; Khorshev, A. A.

    2015-12-01

    The paper focuses on economic aspects of the Russian thermal generation sector's renovation in a competitive market environment. Capabilities of the existing competitive electricity and capacity pricing mechanisms, created during the wholesale market reform, to ensure the wide-scale modernization of thermal power plants (TPPs) are estimated. Some additional stimulating measures to focus the investment process on the renovation of the thermal generation sector are formulated, and supplementing and supporting costs are assessed. Finally, the systemic effect of decelerating wholesale electricity prices caused by efficiency improvements at thermal power plants is analyzed depending on the scales of renovation and fuel prices.

  19. The pricing of natural gas in US markets

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, S.P.A.; Yucel, M.K. )

    1993-01-01

    Our econometric evidence indicates that changes in natural gas prices are unequal in the long run. Nonetheless, all downstream prices change by at least as much as the average well-head price. Statistically, residential and commercial prices change as much as the city gate price. In the face of persistent shocks, however, market institutions and market dynamics can lead to lengthy periods in which the residential and commercial prices of natural gas adjust less than the wellhead or city gate prices. Electrical and industrial users of natural gas rely heavily on spot supplies and can switch fuels easily. Their ability to switch fuels may be related to the development of a spot market to serve them. Reliance on the spot market may explain why these end users have seen a greater reduction in natural gas prices than have the LDCs over the past seven years. The ability to switch fuels may account for electrical and industrial prices being the source of shocks in their relationships with the wellhead price. It also may explain why prices in these end-sue markets are quick to adjust. Commercial and residential customers cannot switch fuels easily and rely heavily on LDCs for their natural gas. The inability of these end users to switch fuels probably contributes to the reluctance of LDCs to purchase spot supplies of gas. Reliance on contract supplies may explain why the city gate price has not declined as much as electrical and industrial prices of natural gas over the past seven years. Furthermore, the LDCs administer prices in the commercial and residential markets under state regulation.

  20. Res-E Support Policies in the Baltic States: Electricity Price Aspect (Part II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bobinaite, V.; Priedite, I.

    2015-04-01

    Increasing volumes of electricity derived from renewable energy sources (RES-E) affect the electricity market prices and the prices for final electricity consumers in the Baltic States. The results of a multivariate regression analysis show that in 2013 the RES-E contributed to decreasing the electricity market prices in the Baltic States. However, the final electricity consumers pay for the promotion of RES-E through the approved RES-E component which has a tendency to increase. It is estimated that in 2013 the net benefits from the wind electricity promotion were achieved in Lithuania and Latvia while the net cost - in Estonia. This suggests that the economic efficiency of the wind electricity support scheme based on the application of feed-in tariffs was higher than that based on the feed-in premium. Rakstā analizēta elektroenerģijas ražošanas no atjaunojamiem energoresursiem (AER-E) palielināšanas ietekme uz elektroenerģijas tirgus cenu un gala cenu elektroenerģijas lietotājiem Baltijas valstīs. Daudzfaktoru regresijas analīzes rezultāti atklāja, ka AER-E 2013. gadā varētu samazināt elektroenerģijas tirgus cenas Baltijas valstīs. Tomēr jāņem vērā, ka elektroenerģijas lietotāja gala cenā ir iekļauta AER-E atbalsta komponente, kurai ir raksturīgi palielināties. Aprēķināts, ka no vēja elektroenerģijas ražošanas Latvijā un Lietuvā tika iegūta tīrā peļņa, bet Igaunijā tikai nosedza pašizmaksu. Tas liecina, ka vēja elektroenerģijas atbalsta shēmai, kas balstīta uz obligātā iepirkuma atbalsta principu, ir augstāka ekonomiskā efektivitāte, nekā atbalsta shēmai, kas balstīta uz piemaksu par no AER saražoto elektroenerģiju obligātā iepirkuma ietvaros.

  1. Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vögele, Stefan; Rübbelke, Dirk

    2013-09-01

    Recent warm, dry summers showed the vulnerability of the European power sector to low water availability and high river temperatures. Climate change is likely to impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power production. Here, we show the impacts of climate change and changes in water availability and water temperature on European electricity production and prices. Using simulations of daily river flows and water temperatures under future climate (2031-2060) in power production models, we show declines in both thermoelectric and hydropower generating potential for most parts of Europe, except for the most northern countries. Based on changes in power production potentials, we assess the cost-optimal use of power plants for each European country by taking electricity import and export constraints into account. Higher wholesale prices are projected on a mean annual basis for most European countries (except for Sweden and Norway), with strongest increases for Slovenia (12-15%), Bulgaria (21-23%) and Romania (31-32% for 2031-2060), where limitations in water availability mainly affect power plants with low production costs. Considering the long design life of power plant infrastructures, short-term adaptation strategies are highly recommended to prevent undesired distributional and allocative effects.

  2. An evaluation of the impact of state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) on retail, commercial, and industrial electricity prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puram, Rakesh

    The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) has become a popular mechanism for states to promote renewable energy and its popularity has spurred a potential bill within Congress for a nationwide Federal RPS. While RPS benefits have been touted by several groups, it also has detractors. Among the concerns is that RPS standards could raise electricity rates, given that renewable energy is costlier than traditional fossil fuels. The evidence on the impact of RPS on electricity prices is murky at best: Complex models by NREL and USEIA utilize computer programs with several assumptions which make empirical studies difficult and only predict slight increases in electricity rates associated with RPS standards. Recent theoretical models and empirical studies have found price increases, but often fail to comprehensively include several sets of variables, which in fact could confound results. Utilizing a combination of past papers and studies to triangulate variables this study aims to develop both a rigorous fixed effects regression model as well as a theoretical framework to explain the results. This study analyzes state level panel data from 2002 to 2008 to analyze the effect of RPS on residential, commercial, and industrial electricity prices, controlling for several factors including amount of electricity generation from renewable and non-renewable sources, customer incentives for renewable energy, macroeconomic and demographic indicators, and fuel price mix. The study contrasts several regressions to illustrate important relationships and how inclusions as well as exclusion of various variables have an effect on electricity rates. Regression results indicate that the presence of RPS within a state increases the commercial and residential electricity rates, but have no discernable effect on the industrial electricity rate. Although RPS tends to increase electricity prices, the effect has a small impact on higher electricity prices. The models also indicate that jointly all

  3. The inevitable commoditization of electric power markets

    SciTech Connect

    Mango, B.; Woodley, J.A.C.

    1994-11-01

    As competition grows between electric suppliers it is inevitable that a spot market in electricity will evolve. The impetus is the market demand for greater asset productivity. With prices revealed, a commodity market will follow. With spot and commodity markets will come the power to reallocate risk and make capital investment more productive. Given price volatility, separate markets will develop for near- and long-term hedging instruments.

  4. The price of electricity from private power producers: Stage 2, Expansion of sample and preliminary statistical analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Comnes, G.A.; Belden, T.N.; Kahn, E.P.

    1995-02-01

    The market for long-term bulk power is becoming increasingly competitive and mature. Given that many privately developed power projects have been or are being developed in the US, it is possible to begin to evaluate the performance of the market by analyzing its revealed prices. Using a consistent method, this paper presents levelized contract prices for a sample of privately developed US generation properties. The sample includes 26 projects with a total capacity of 6,354 MW. Contracts are described in terms of their choice of technology, choice of fuel, treatment of fuel price risk, geographic location, dispatchability, expected dispatch niche, and size. The contract price analysis shows that gas technologies clearly stand out as the most attractive. At an 80% capacity factor, coal projects have an average 20-year levelized price of $0.092/kWh, whereas natural gas combined cycle and/or cogeneration projects have an average price of $0.069/kWh. Within each technology type subsample, however, there is considerable variation. Prices for natural gas combustion turbines and one wind project are also presented. A preliminary statistical analysis is conducted to understand the relationship between price and four categories of explanatory factors including product heterogeneity, geographic heterogeneity, economic and technological change, and other buyer attributes (including avoided costs). Because of residual price variation, we are unable to accept the hypothesis that electricity is a homogeneous product. Instead, the analysis indicates that buyer value still plays an important role in the determination of price for competitively-acquired electricity.

  5. Evaluation of the Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Market Prices and on the Profitability of New Wind Investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, A. J.; Saraiva, J. T.

    2012-10-01

    This paper describes a Dynamic Model of the electricity sector that can be used to simulate the evolution of some key variables on the long term, namely the evolution of the electricity price, of the demand and of the capacity factors of the technologies in the generation mix. This model can be used in different ways and by several agents, for instance to estimate the impact on the electricity price of the increasing presence of renewable power stations, namely using wind power and PV systems. In several countries these stations are paid feed-in tariffs with a fixed price but in some cases this scheme is under discussion and there are opinions that payments determined by the market price are more adequate and would bring fewer costs to final consumers. Such a change has to be carefully evaluated given that the presence of renewable stations bidding at an infra marginal price will affect the price itself. The model described in this paper can be used in a profitable way both by governmental agencies when preparing or studying alternative remuneration schemes to renewable stations or by promoters themselves to get more insight to the profitability of their investments, namely if the fixed feed-in tariffs in force in several countries are changed.

  6. Possibility of controlling nonregulated prices in the electricity market by means of varying the parameters of a power system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaskovskaya, T. A.

    2014-12-01

    This paper offers a new approach to the analysis of price signals from the wholesale electricity and capacity market that is based on the analysis of the influence exerted by input data used in the problem of optimization of the power system operating conditions, namely: parameters of a power grid and power-receiving equipment that might vary under the effect of control devices. It is shown that it would be possible to control nonregulated prices for electricity in the wholesale electricity market by varying the parameters of control devices and energy-receiving equipment. An increase in the effectiveness of power transmission and the cost-effective use of fuel-and-energy resources (energy saving) can become an additional effect of controlling the nonregulated prices.

  7. Financial comparison of time-of-use pricing with technical DSM programs and generating plants as electric-utility resource options

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, L.J.

    1994-04-01

    Changing electricity prices to more closely reflect production costs has a significant impact on the consumption of electricity. It is known, for example, that most of the efficiency gains in the electric power sectors of the industrialized world since the first international oil price shock in 1973 are attributable to the rising trend of electricity prices. This was due to the rising average price of electricity. Because of the unique characteristics of producing electricity, its marginal cost is higher than its average cost during many hours of the day. This study shows that, for utilities not reflecting these cost differences in their rates, there is ample room to satisfy a portion of their resource needs by exploiting the load-shaping properties of time-of-use (TOU) rates. Satisfying a portion of resource requirements by implementing a TOU-pricing program, however, is not costless. Metering and administering TOU pricing requires a financial commitment by an electric utility. And the commitment has an opportunity cost. That is, the funds could be used to construct generating plants or run DSM programs (other than a TOU-pricing program) and satisfy the same resource needs that TOU pricing does. The question addressed in this study is whether a utility is better-served financially by (i) implementing TOU pricing or (ii) running technical DSM programs and building power plants. The answer is that TOU pricing compares favorably on a financial basis with other resources under a wide set of conditions that real-world utilities confront.

  8. Study on Operation Optimization of Pumping Station's 24 Hours Operation under Influences of Tides and Peak-Valley Electricity Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, Gong; Jilin, Cheng; Lihua, Zhang; Rentian, Zhang

    2010-06-01

    According to different processes of tides and peak-valley electricity prices, this paper determines the optimal start up time in pumping station's 24 hours operation between the rating state and adjusting blade angle state respectively based on the optimization objective function and optimization model for single-unit pump's 24 hours operation taking JiangDu No.4 Pumping Station for example. In the meantime, this paper proposes the following regularities between optimal start up time of pumping station and the process of tides and peak-valley electricity prices each day within a month: (1) In the rating and adjusting blade angle state, the optimal start up time in pumping station's 24 hours operation which depends on the tide generation at the same day varies with the process of tides. There are mainly two kinds of optimal start up time which include the time at tide generation and 12 hours after it. (2) In the rating state, the optimal start up time on each day in a month exhibits a rule of symmetry from 29 to 28 of next month in the lunar calendar. The time of tide generation usually exists in the period of peak electricity price or the valley one. The higher electricity price corresponds to the higher minimum cost of water pumping at unit, which means that the minimum cost of water pumping at unit depends on the peak-valley electricity price at the time of tide generation on the same day. (3) In the adjusting blade angle state, the minimum cost of water pumping at unit in pumping station's 24 hour operation depends on the process of peak-valley electricity prices. And in the adjusting blade angle state, 4.85%˜5.37% of the minimum cost of water pumping at unit will be saved than that of in the rating state.

  9. An Electricity Price-Aware Open-Source Smart Socket for the Internet of Energy

    PubMed Central

    Blanco-Novoa, Óscar; Fernández-Caramés, Tiago M.; Fraga-Lamas, Paula; Castedo, Luis

    2017-01-01

    The Internet of Energy (IoE) represents a novel paradigm where electrical power systems work cooperatively with smart devices to increase the visibility of energy consumption and create safer, cleaner and sustainable energy systems. The implementation of IoE services involves the use of multiple components, like embedded systems, power electronics or sensors, which are an essential part of the infrastructure dedicated to the generation and distribution energy and the one required by the final consumer. This article focuses on the latter and presents a smart socket system that collects the information about energy price and makes use of sensors and actuators to optimize home energy consumption according to the user preferences. Specifically, this article provides three main novel contributions. First, what to our knowledge is the first hardware prototype that manages in a practical real-world scenario the price values obtained from a public electricity operator is presented. The second contribution is related to the definition of a novel wireless sensor network communications protocol based on Wi-Fi that allows for creating an easy-to-deploy smart plug system that self-organizes and auto-configures to collect the sensed data, minimizing user intervention. Third, it is provided a thorough description of the design of one of the few open-source smart plug systems, including its communications architecture, the protocols implemented, the main sensing and actuation components and the most relevant pieces of the software. Moreover, with the aim of illustrating the capabilities of the smart plug system, the results of different experiments performed are shown. Such experiments evaluate in real-world scenarios the system’s ease of use, its communications range and its performance when using HTTPS. Finally, the economic savings are estimated for different appliances, concluding that, in the practical situation proposed, the smart plug system allows certain energy

  10. An Electricity Price-Aware Open-Source Smart Socket for the Internet of Energy.

    PubMed

    Blanco-Novoa, Óscar; Fernández-Caramés, Tiago M; Fraga-Lamas, Paula; Castedo, Luis

    2017-03-21

    The Internet of Energy (IoE) represents a novel paradigm where electrical power systems work cooperatively with smart devices to increase the visibility of energy consumption and create safer, cleaner and sustainable energy systems. The implementation of IoE services involves the use of multiple components, like embedded systems, power electronics or sensors, which are an essential part of the infrastructure dedicated to the generation and distribution energy and the one required by the final consumer. This article focuses on the latter and presents a smart socket system that collects the information about energy price and makes use of sensors and actuators to optimize home energy consumption according to the user preferences. Specifically, this article provides three main novel contributions. First, what to our knowledge is the first hardware prototype that manages in a practical real-world scenario the price values obtained from a public electricity operator is presented. The second contribution is related to the definition of a novel wireless sensor network communications protocol based on Wi-Fi that allows for creating an easy-to-deploy smart plug system that self-organizes and auto-configures to collect the sensed data, minimizing user intervention. Third, it is provided a thorough description of the design of one of the few open-source smart plug systems, including its communications architecture, the protocols implemented, the main sensing and actuation components and the most relevant pieces of the software. Moreover, with the aim of illustrating the capabilities of the smart plug system, the results of different experiments performed are shown. Such experiments evaluate in real-world scenarios the system's ease of use, its communications range and its performance when using HTTPS. Finally, the economic savings are estimated for different appliances, concluding that, in the practical situation proposed, the smart plug system allows certain energy

  11. Electric arc furnaces for steel-making: hot spots for persistent organic pollutants.

    PubMed

    Odabasi, Mustafa; Bayram, Abdurrahman; Elbir, Tolga; Seyfioglu, Remzi; Dumanoglu, Yetkin; Bozlaker, Ayse; Demircioglu, Hulusi; Altiok, Hasan; Yatkin, Sinan; Cetin, Banu

    2009-07-15

    Persistent organic pollutant (POP) concentrations were measured in stack-gases of ferrous scrap processing steel plants with electric arc furnaces (EAFs) (n = 5) in Aliaga, Izmir, Turkey and in air (n = 11) at a site near those plants. Measured stack-gas concentrations for the four plants without scrap preheating (611 +/- 311, 165,000 +/- 285,000, and 33 +/- 3 ng m(-3), average +/- SD for sigma41PCBs, sigma16PAHs, and sigma7PBDEs, respectively) indicated that they are significant sources for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). POP emissions from the plant with scrap preheating were significantly higher (13 500, 445 000, and 91 ng m(-3) for sigma41PCBs, sigma16PAHs, and sigma7PBDEs, respectively). It was also shown that the steel plants emit considerable amounts of fugitive POPs in particle-phase. Estimated emissions using the emission factors generated in this study and the production amounts suggested that the steel plants with EAFs may significantly contribute to local and global PAH, PCB, and PBDE emissions. Several other compounds (aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons, oxygen, sulfur, nitrogen, and chlorine-containing organic compounds, n = 49) were identified and determined semiquantitatively in the stack-gas and ambient air samples. Ambient air concentrations (62 +/- 35, 320 +/- 134 ng m(-3), 1451 +/- 954 pg m(-3), for sigma41PCBs, sigma16PAHs, and sigma7PBDEs, respectively) were significantly higher than those measured previously around the world and in the region, further confirming that the steel plants with EAFs are "hot spots" for POPs.

  12. Variability in Automated Responses of Commercial Buildings and Industrial Facilities to Dynamic Electricity Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Mathieu, Johanna L.; Callaway, Duncan S.; Kiliccote, Sila

    2011-08-16

    Changes in the electricity consumption of commercial buildings and industrial facilities (C&I facilities) during Demand Response (DR) events are usually estimated using counterfactual baseline models. Model error makes it difficult to precisely quantify these changes in consumption and understand if C&I facilities exhibit event-to-event variability in their response to DR signals. This paper seeks to understand baseline model error and DR variability in C&I facilities facing dynamic electricity prices. Using a regression-based baseline model, we present a method to compute the error associated with estimates of several DR parameters. We also develop a metric to determine how much observed DR variability results from baseline model error rather than real variability in response. We analyze 38 C&I facilities participating in an automated DR program and find that DR parameter errors are large. Though some facilities exhibit real DR variability, most observed variability results from baseline model error. Therefore, facilities with variable DR parameters may actually respond consistently from event to event. Consequently, in DR programs in which repeatability is valued, individual buildings may be performing better than previously thought. In some cases, however, aggregations of C&I facilities exhibit real DR variability, which could create challenges for power system operation.

  13. Accounting for the effects of power system controllers and stability on power dispatch and electricity market prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kodsi, Sameh K. M.

    Recently, the widespread use of power system controllers, such as PSS and FACTS controllers, has led to the analysis of their effect on the overall stability of power systems. Many studies have been conducted to allocate FACTS controllers so that they achieve optimal power flow conditions in the context of Optimal Power Flow (OPF) analysis. However, these studies usually do not examine the effect of these controllers on the voltage and angle stability of the entire system, considering that the types of these controllers and their control signals, such as reactive power, current, or voltage, have significant effect on the entire system stability. Due to the recent transition from government controlled to deregulated electricity markets, the relationship between power system controllers and electricity markets has added a new dimension, as the effect of these controllers on the overall power system stability has to be seen from an economic point of view. Studying the effect of adding and tuning these controllers on the pricing of electricity within the context of electricity markets is a significant and novel research area. Specifically, the link among stability, FACTS controllers and electricity pricing should be appropriately studied and modelled. Consequently, in this thesis, the focus is on proposing and describing of a novel OPF technique which includes a new stability constraint. This technique is compared with respect to existent OPF techniques, demonstrating that it provides an appropriate modelling of system controllers, and thus a better understanding of their effects on system stability and energy pricing. The proposed OPF technique offers a new methodology for pricing the dynamic services provided by the system's controllers. Moreover, the new OPF technique can be used to develop a novel tuning methodology for PSS and FACTS controllers to optimize power dispatch and price levels, as guaranteeing an adequate level of system security. All tests and

  14. A Study of Demand Response Effect of Thermal Storage Air-Conditioning Systems in Consideration of Electricity Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omagari, Yuko; Sugihara, Hideharu; Tsuji, Kiichiro

    This paper evaluates the economic impact of the introduction of customer-owned Thermal Storage Air-conditioning (TSA) systems, in an electricity market, from the viewpoint of the load service entity. We perform simulations on the condition that several thousand customers install TSA systems and shift peak demand in an electricity market by one percent. Our numerical results indicate that the purchase cost of the LSE was reduced through load management of customers with TSA systems. The introduction of TSA systems also reduced the volatility of market clearing price and reduced the whole-trade cost in an electricity market.

  15. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications ofprice-elastic demand

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Bartholomew, Emily S.; Marnay, Chris

    2004-07-08

    Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulated electricity industries share one common feature: the absence of any significant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, electricity industries continue to charge most consumers an average cost based on regulated retail tariff from the era of vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are forced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in open markets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who are sometimes forbidden by regulators from signing hedging contracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time (or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price of electricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumption in response to price signals. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic, and electricity generation resources can be stretched to the point where system stability is threatened. This, then, facilitates many other problems associated with electricity markets, such as market power and price volatility. Indeed, economic theory suggests that even modestly price-responsive demand can remove the stress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To test this theory, we use actual generator bid data from the New York control area to construct supply stacks, and intersect them with demand curves of various slopes to approximate different levels of demand elasticity. We then estimate the potential impact of real-time pricing on the equilibrium spot price and quantity. These results indicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a more price-elastic demand. Such analysis can provide policymakers with a measure of how effective price-elastic demand can potentially reduce prices and maintain consumption within the capability of generation resources.

  16. Consequences of a price incentive on free riding and electric energy consumption

    PubMed Central

    Elinder, Mikael; Escobar, Sebastian; Petré, Ingel

    2017-01-01

    This article shows that a simple monetary incentive can dramatically reduce electric energy consumption (EEC) in the residential sector and simultaneously achieve a more desirable allocation of EEC costs. The analyses are based on data from a policy experiment conducted in 2011 and 2012 by a private housing company in about 1,800 apartments. Roughly 800 of the tenants (treatment group) were subject to a change from having unlimited EEC included in their rent to having to pay the market price for their own EEC. This change was achieved by installing EEC meters in each apartment. Tenants in the other 1,000 apartments (control group) experienced no policy change and were subject to apartment-level billing and metering during the entire study period. Using a quasiexperimental research design and daily data on EEC from 2007 to 2015, we estimate that apartment-level billing and metering permanently reduce EEC by about 25%. Moreover, we show that households reduce EEC immediately after being informed that they will be billed for EEC, the reduction is larger when the production cost is higher, and the reduction in EEC comes almost exclusively from households with very high EEC before the policy change. Finally, we show that apartment-level billing and metering are cost-effective, with a cost per reduced kilowatt hour of US$0.01, and for each invested dollar, the social value of reductions in air pollution, including CO2 emissions, is $2. PMID:28265092

  17. Consequences of a price incentive on free riding and electric energy consumption.

    PubMed

    Elinder, Mikael; Escobar, Sebastian; Petré, Ingel

    2017-03-06

    This article shows that a simple monetary incentive can dramatically reduce electric energy consumption (EEC) in the residential sector and simultaneously achieve a more desirable allocation of EEC costs. The analyses are based on data from a policy experiment conducted in 2011 and 2012 by a private housing company in about 1,800 apartments. Roughly 800 of the tenants (treatment group) were subject to a change from having unlimited EEC included in their rent to having to pay the market price for their own EEC. This change was achieved by installing EEC meters in each apartment. Tenants in the other 1,000 apartments (control group) experienced no policy change and were subject to apartment-level billing and metering during the entire study period. Using a quasiexperimental research design and daily data on EEC from 2007 to 2015, we estimate that apartment-level billing and metering permanently reduce EEC by about 25%. Moreover, we show that households reduce EEC immediately after being informed that they will be billed for EEC, the reduction is larger when the production cost is higher, and the reduction in EEC comes almost exclusively from households with very high EEC before the policy change. Finally, we show that apartment-level billing and metering are cost-effective, with a cost per reduced kilowatt hour of US$0.01, and for each invested dollar, the social value of reductions in air pollution, including CO2 emissions, is $2.

  18. A Nondestructive Evaluation Method: Measuring the Fixed Strength of Spot-Welded Joint Points by Surface Electrical Resistivity.

    PubMed

    Shimamoto, Akira; Yamashita, Keitaro; Inoue, Hirofumi; Yang, Sung-Mo; Iwata, Masahiro; Ike, Natsuko

    2013-04-01

    Destructive tests are generally applied to evaluate the fixed strength of spot-welding nuggets of zinc-plated steel (which is a widely used primary structural material for automobiles). These destructive tests, however, are expensive and time-consuming. This paper proposes a nondestructive method for evaluating the fixed strength of the welded joints using surface electrical resistance. A direct current nugget-tester and probes have been developed by the authors for this purpose. The proposed nondestructive method uses the relative decrease in surface electrical resistance, α. The proposed method also considers the effect of the corona bond. The nugget diameter is estimated by two factors: RQuota, which is calculated from variation of resistance, and a constant that represents the area of the corona bond. Since the maximum tensile strength is correlated with the nugget diameter, it can be inferred from the estimated nugget diameter. When appropriate measuring conditions for the surface electrical resistance are chosen, the proposed method can effectively evaluate the fixed strength of the spot-welded joints even if the steel sheet is zinc-plated.

  19. Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Shijie

    The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in

  20. Failure analysis of blistered gold plating on spot welded electrical relays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sokolowski, Witold; O'Donnell, Tim

    1989-01-01

    Gold-plated stainless-steel sideplates, part of a JPL Galileo spacecraft electronic-relay assembly, exhibited blistering after resistance spot welding. Unacceptable relays had heavy nonuniform gold electrodeposited layers with thicknesses 4.5-11.5 microns. SEM and metallographic investigations indicated much higher heat input generated during the resistance spot welding in unacceptable relays. The attributes of acceptable welded relays are contrasted with unacceptable relays; the possible mechanism of laminar formation of polymeric material in the gold plating is discussed; and some recommendations are provided to prevent similar problems.

  1. Failure analysis of blistered gold plating on spot welded electrical relays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sokolowski, Witold; O'Donnell, Tim

    1989-01-01

    Gold-plated stainless-steel sideplates, part of a JPL Galileo spacecraft electronic-relay assembly, exhibited blistering after resistance spot welding. Unacceptable relays had heavy nonuniform gold electrodeposited layers with thicknesses 4.5-11.5 microns. SEM and metallographic investigations indicated much higher heat input generated during the resistance spot welding in unacceptable relays. The attributes of acceptable welded relays are contrasted with unacceptable relays; the possible mechanism of laminar formation of polymeric material in the gold plating is discussed; and some recommendations are provided to prevent similar problems.

  2. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG&E`s experimental TOU rates. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers` time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer`s demand curves determine the customer`s choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas & Electric Company`s experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility`s revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG&E`s experiment decreased PG&E`s profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  3. Further considerations on the preparation of small electrical contacts by spot welding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, I. R.; Moss, C. J.

    2000-05-01

    A recent publication by the authors describes a spot welder which can be used to join small wires to samples of metallic materials. The article also discusses the selection of contact wires, the preparation of samples prior to welding, and other details of the welding method. In the present work, we give a much improved version of the power supply circuit, and offer additional information on the technique that was not discussed previously. A "universal" method of electropolishing is also described which may be used to remove oxides and other surface contaminants from samples prior to spot welding. This technique can be applied to a variety of materials, including rare earth elements and compounds, which are generally difficult to polish or etch using other chemical or electrochemical means.

  4. Demand response-enabled model predictive HVAC load control in buildings using real-time electricity pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avci, Mesut

    A practical cost and energy efficient model predictive control (MPC) strategy is proposed for HVAC load control under dynamic real-time electricity pricing. The MPC strategy is built based on a proposed model that jointly minimizes the total energy consumption and hence, cost of electricity for the user, and the deviation of the inside temperature from the consumer's preference. An algorithm that assigns temperature set-points (reference temperatures) to price ranges based on the consumer's discomfort tolerance index is developed. A practical parameter prediction model is also designed for mapping between the HVAC load and the inside temperature. The prediction model and the produced temperature set-points are integrated as inputs into the MPC controller, which is then used to generate signal actions for the AC unit. To investigate and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a simulation based experimental analysis is presented using real-life pricing data. An actual prototype for the proposed HVAC load control strategy is then built and a series of prototype experiments are conducted similar to the simulation studies. The experiments reveal that the MPC strategy can lead to significant reductions in overall energy consumption and cost savings for the consumer. Results suggest that by providing an efficient response strategy for the consumers, the proposed MPC strategy can enable the utility providers to adopt efficient demand management policies using real-time pricing. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis is performed to display the economic feasibility of implementing such a controller as part of a building energy management system, and the payback period is identified considering cost of prototype build and cost savings to help the adoption of this controller in the building HVAC control industry.

  5. Electricity Prices and the Poor: What Are the Effects and What Can We Do,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-01

    devoted to energy and the poor . First, because prices Delivered to a symposium, The Impact of Energy Prices on Low Income Populations, sponsored by...V A uiwuI’’ ,,- t,.IA- t" -2- affect the poor by reducing their income available for other uses. Second, because we wish to know if the impact on...Acton, Mitchell, and Sohlberg’s. He finds smaller (closer to 0) elasticities when he estimates demand among low income senior citizen households

  6. Using genetic algorithms to determine near-optimal pricing, investment and operating strategies in the electric power industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Dongjun

    Network industries have technologies characterized by a spatial hierarchy, the "network," with capital-intensive interconnections and time-dependent, capacity-limited flows of products and services through the network to customers. This dissertation studies service pricing, investment and business operating strategies for the electric power network. First-best solutions for a variety of pricing and investment problems have been studied. The evaluation of genetic algorithms (GA, which are methods based on the idea of natural evolution) as a primary means of solving complicated network problems, both w.r.t. pricing: as well as w.r.t. investment and other operating decisions, has been conducted. New constraint-handling techniques in GAs have been studied and tested. The actual application of such constraint-handling techniques in solving practical non-linear optimization problems has been tested on several complex network design problems with encouraging initial results. Genetic algorithms provide solutions that are feasible and close to optimal when the optimal solution is know; in some instances, the near-optimal solutions for small problems by the proposed GA approach can only be tested by pushing the limits of currently available non-linear optimization software. The performance is far better than several commercially available GA programs, which are generally inadequate in solving any of the problems studied in this dissertation, primarily because of their poor handling of constraints. Genetic algorithms, if carefully designed, seem very promising in solving difficult problems which are intractable by traditional analytic methods.

  7. Two essays on electricity markets: Entry into hydroelectric generation industry and the political cycle of regulated prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moita, Rodrigo Menon Simoes

    This dissertation is about the electricity industry and the problems that arise with the liberalization and de-regulation of the industry. Characteristics intrinsic to the electricity market create problems that can compromise an efficient functioning of this market. Each of the two chapters of this dissertation focus on a specific aspect of this industry. The first chapter analyzes entry in the hydroelectric generation industry. The operation of a generator upstream regularizes the river flow for generators located downstream on the same river, increasing the production capacity of the latter. This positive externality increases the attractiveness of the locations downstream whenever a generator decides to enter upstream. Therefore, the entry decision of a generator in a given location may affect all entry decisions in potential locations for plants located downstream. I first model the problem of generators located in cascade on the same river and show the positive effect of the externality. Second, I use a panel of data on investment decisions of hydro-generation firms to estimate an entry model that takes into account the effect of the externality generated by entry upriver. The results show a positive incentive to locate downstream from existing plants and from locations where entry is likely to occur. Location characteristics also play an important role on the entrants' decisions. The model provides estimates of the average expected market price across the different years covered by the sample and shows that it rose one year before the energy crisis of 2001, evidencing that the market anticipated the crisis. This result has important implications on the evaluation of the Brazilian market design. It shows that entry responded to a rise in expectations about excess demand in the future, contradicting the argument that the crisis was a consequence of mis-designed market institutions. The second chapter deals with the problem of the political cycle in regulated

  8. Decreased Spontaneous Electrical Activity and Acetylcholine at Myofascial Trigger Spots after Dry Needling Treatment: A Pilot Study

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Objective The aims of this study are to investigate the changes in spontaneous electrical activities (SEAs) and in acetylcholine (ACh), acetylcholine receptor (AChR), and acetylcholine esterase (AChE) levels after dry needling at myofascial trigger spots in model rats. Materials and Methods Forty-eight male Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into four groups. Thirty-six rats were assigned to three model groups, which underwent MTrSs modeling intervention. Twelve rats were assigned to the blank control (BC) group. After model construction, the 36 model rats were randomly subdivided into three groups according to treatment: MTrSs model control (MC) and two dry needling groups. One dry needling group received puncturing at MTrSs (DN-M), whereas the other underwent puncturing at non-MTrSs (DN-nM). Dry needling treatment will last for two weeks, once a week. SEAs and ACh, AChR, and AChE levels were measured after one-week rest of dry needling treatment. Results The amplitudes and frequencies of endplate noise (EPN) and endplate spike (EPS) significantly decreased after dry needling treatment in the DN-M group. Moreover, ACh and AChR levels significantly decreased, whereas AChE significantly increased after dry needling treatment in the DN-M group. Conclusion Dry needling at the exact MTrSs is more effective than dry needling at non-MTrSs. PMID:28592980

  9. Myelinated Afferents Are Involved in Pathology of the Spontaneous Electrical Activity and Mechanical Hyperalgesia of Myofascial Trigger Spots in Rats.

    PubMed

    Meng, Fei; Ge, Hong-You; Wang, Yong-Hui; Yue, Shou-Wei

    2015-01-01

    Myofascial trigger points (MTrPs) are common causes for chronic pain. Myelinated afferents were considered to be related with muscular pain, and our clinical researches indicated they might participate in the pathology of MTrPs. Here, we applied myofascial trigger spots (MTrSs, equal to MTrPs in human) of rats to further investigate role of myelinated afferents. Modified pyridine-silver staining revealed more nerve endings at MTrSs than non-MTrSs (P < 0.01), and immunohistochemistry with Neurofilament 200 indicated more myelinated afferents existed in MTrSs (P < 0.01). Spontaneous electrical activity (SEA) recordings at MTrSs showed that specific block of myelinated afferents in sciatic nerve with tetrodotoxin (TTX) led to significantly decreased SEA (P < 0.05). Behavioral assessment showed that mechanical pain thresholds (MPTs) of MTrSs were lower than those of non-MTrSs (P < 0.01). Block of myelinated afferents by intramuscular TTX injection increased MPTs of MTrSs significantly (P < 0.01), while MPTs of non-MTrSs first decreased (P < 0.05) and then increased (P > 0.05). 30 min after the injection, MPTs at MTrSs were significantly lower than those of non-MTrSs (P < 0.01). Therefore, we concluded that proliferated myelinated afferents existed at MTrSs, which were closely related to pathology of SEA and mechanical hyperalgesia of MTrSs.

  10. Myelinated Afferents Are Involved in Pathology of the Spontaneous Electrical Activity and Mechanical Hyperalgesia of Myofascial Trigger Spots in Rats

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Myofascial trigger points (MTrPs) are common causes for chronic pain. Myelinated afferents were considered to be related with muscular pain, and our clinical researches indicated they might participate in the pathology of MTrPs. Here, we applied myofascial trigger spots (MTrSs, equal to MTrPs in human) of rats to further investigate role of myelinated afferents. Modified pyridine-silver staining revealed more nerve endings at MTrSs than non-MTrSs (P < 0.01), and immunohistochemistry with Neurofilament 200 indicated more myelinated afferents existed in MTrSs (P < 0.01). Spontaneous electrical activity (SEA) recordings at MTrSs showed that specific block of myelinated afferents in sciatic nerve with tetrodotoxin (TTX) led to significantly decreased SEA (P < 0.05). Behavioral assessment showed that mechanical pain thresholds (MPTs) of MTrSs were lower than those of non-MTrSs (P < 0.01). Block of myelinated afferents by intramuscular TTX injection increased MPTs of MTrSs significantly (P < 0.01), while MPTs of non-MTrSs first decreased (P < 0.05) and then increased (P > 0.05). 30 min after the injection, MPTs at MTrSs were significantly lower than those of non-MTrSs (P < 0.01). Therefore, we concluded that proliferated myelinated afferents existed at MTrSs, which were closely related to pathology of SEA and mechanical hyperalgesia of MTrSs. PMID:26064165

  11. Evaluation on Influence of Unstable Primary-Energy Price in a Deregulated Electric Power Market—Analysis based on a simulation model approach—

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maitani, Tatsuyuki; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    The electric power market of Japan has been locally monopolized for a long time. But, like many countries, Japan is moving forward with the deregulation of its electric power industry so that any power generation company could sell electric power in the market. The power price, however, will fluctuate inevitably to balance the power supply and demand. A new appropriate market design is indispensable when introducing new market mechanisms in the electric power market to avoid undesirable results of the market. The first stage of deregulation will be the competition between an existing large-scaled power utility and a new power generation company. In this paper we have investigated the wholesale market with competition of these two power companies based on a simulation model approach. Under the competitive situation the effects of exogenous disturbance may bring serious results and we estimated the influence on the market when the price of fossil fuel rises. The conclusion of this study is that several types of Nash equilibriums have been found in the market: the larger the new power generation company becomes, the higher the electricity price under the Nash equilibriums rises. Because of the difference in their structure of generation capacity, the existing large-scaled power utility gets more profit while the new power generation company loses its profit when the price of fossil fuel rises.

  12. Multi-period equilibrium/near-equilibrium in electricity markets based on locational marginal prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Bertrand, Raquel

    In this dissertation we propose an equilibrium procedure that coordinates the point of view of every market agent resulting in an equilibrium that simultaneously maximizes the independent objective of every market agent and satisfies network constraints. Therefore, the activities of the generating companies, consumers and an independent system operator are modeled: (1) The generating companies seek to maximize profits by specifying hourly step functions of productions and minimum selling prices, and bounds on productions. (2) The goals of the consumers are to maximize their economic utilities by specifying hourly step functions of demands and maximum buying prices, and bounds on demands. (3) The independent system operator then clears the market taking into account consistency conditions as well as capacity and line losses so as to achieve maximum social welfare. Then, we approach this equilibrium problem using complementarity theory in order to have the capability of imposing constraints on dual variables, i.e., on prices, such as minimum profit conditions for the generating units or maximum cost conditions for the consumers. In this way, given the form of the individual optimization problems, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions for the generating companies, the consumers and the independent system operator are both necessary and sufficient. The simultaneous solution to all these conditions constitutes a mixed linear complementarity problem. We include minimum profit constraints imposed by the units in the market equilibrium model. These constraints are added as additional constraints to the equivalent quadratic programming problem of the mixed linear complementarity problem previously described. For the sake of clarity, the proposed equilibrium or near-equilibrium is first developed for the particular case considering only one time period. Afterwards, we consider an equilibrium or near-equilibrium applied to a multi-period framework. This model embodies binary

  13. Sticker Shock--There's a High Price to Pay for Ignorance about Electricity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roy, Ken

    2005-01-01

    Lighting a fluorescent bulb by touching it to the nose of a student who has one hand on an electrostatic generator is an illuminating demonstration of the properties of voltage. It demonstrates that the several hundred thousand volts of electricity passing through the student's body are not dangerous. However, students and teachers need to…

  14. Sticker Shock--There's a High Price to Pay for Ignorance about Electricity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roy, Ken

    2005-01-01

    Lighting a fluorescent bulb by touching it to the nose of a student who has one hand on an electrostatic generator is an illuminating demonstration of the properties of voltage. It demonstrates that the several hundred thousand volts of electricity passing through the student's body are not dangerous. However, students and teachers need to…

  15. Analysis of the Pricing Process in Electricity Market using Multi-Agent Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimomura, Takahiro; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

    Many electric utilities world-wide have been forced to change their ways of doing business, from vertically integrated mechanisms to open market systems. We are facing urgent issues about how we design the structures of power market systems. In order to settle down these issues, many studies have been made with market models of various characteristics and regulations. The goal of modeling analysis is to enrich our understanding of fundamental process that may appear. However, there are many kinds of modeling methods. Each has drawback and advantage about validity and versatility. This paper presents two kinds of methods to construct multi-agent market models. One is based on game theory and another is based on reinforcement learning. By comparing the results of the two methods, they can advance in validity and help us figure out potential problems in electricity markets which have oligopolistic generators, demand fluctuation and inelastic demand. Moreover, this model based on reinforcement learning enables us to consider characteristics peculiar to electricity markets which have plant unit characteristics, seasonable and hourly demand fluctuation, real-time regulation market and operating reserve market. This model figures out importance of the share of peak-load-plants and the way of designing operating reserve market.

  16. Income distribution impacts of changes in Western Area Power Administration electricity prices. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, A.; Frias, O.

    1993-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to present the methodology and results of an analysis of income distribution impacts associated with changes in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) marketing program. The focus will be on the distribution of personal income across eleven brackets in each of nine sub-regions of the WAPA market area. Moreover, these results will be translated into an assessment of the number of people who stand to gain or lose as a result of the policies and the size of these income changes. Most economic impact analyses are performed at an aggregate level. The results are typically presented in terms of net benefits, or a listing of changes in employment, output, income, or prices. What is neglected is the distribution of impacts across the affected population. These distributional impacts are important for several reasons. First, there is the normative judgmental issue of distributional justice, or equity. This addresses concerns about income disparities in general, or whether the poor, or any other group, are shouldering a disproportionate share of any burden or are failing to share significantly in any gain.

  17. Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbord, David William Cameron

    This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

  18. Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

    In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

  19. Capacity constraints, pricing and investment decisions in regulated firms with a special emphasis on the Argentine electricity transmission system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres Gomez, Clemencia

    Restructuring the electricity sector has fostered competition in generation and distribution but has reinforced the need for better regulation to ensure efficiency of transmission networks. This dissertation assesses the impact of the Argentinean reforms in electricity on transmission efficiency. It then goes beyond the Argentinean case and analyzes some regulatory issues affecting transmission. Chapter 2 shows that the Argentinean reforms increased reliability and brought prices closer to costs. However, regulatory fine-tuning is required to ensure sustainability. Chapter 3 examines the impact of unbundling on the construction of the transmission link to the Yacyreta generation complex. A long-term commercial contract in an unbundled industry allowed competition to reduce investment cost and facilitated better monitoring by outsiders. Chapter 4 analyzes investment procedures in the context of the proposal to build a fourth line in the Comahue corridor. While procedures are mostly coherent, some rules appear to distort incentives to expand. The narrow definition of beneficiaries limits the number of participants in the decision-making. Grid users' limited accountability reduces incentives to pay for expansion. Long term contracts could increase the cost of the constraints for the party with the obligation to deliver. Chapter 5 analyzes incentives to promote grid expansion under uncertain demand using a single period-single generator model. The monopolist underinvests in comparison to an unconstrained system to reduce the likelihood of having to pay for unutilized capacity, under lower than expected demand. Optimal transmission capacity is monotonically decreasing in the cost of capital, and weakly increasing in the probability of experiencing high demand. Two possible equilibrium values for grid capacity are identified, associated with the rationing prices for either low or high demand. Chapter 6 analyzes the Laffont/Tirole model of monopoly regulation under

  20. Liver spots

    MedlinePlus

    ... skin changes - liver spots; Senile or solar lentigines; Skin spots - aging; Age spots ... changes in skin color that occur in older skin. The coloring may be due to aging, exposure to the sun or other sources of ...

  1. Deployment of CCS Technologies across the Load Curve for a Competitive Electricity Market as a Function of CO2 Emissions Permit Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.

    2011-04-18

    Consistent with other published studies, the modelling presented here reveals that baseload power plants are the first aspects of the electricity sector to decarbonize and are essentially decarbonized once CO2 permit prices exceed a certain threshold ($90/ton CO2 in this study). The decarbonization of baseload electricity is met by significant expansions of nuclear power and renewable energy generation technologies as well as the application of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies applied to both coal and natural gas fired power plants. Relatively little attention has been paid thus far to whether intermediate and peaking units would respond the same way to a climate policy given the very different operational and economic context that these kinds of electricity generation units operate under. In this paper, the authors discuss key aspects of the load segmentation methodology used to imbed a varying electricity demand within the GCAM (a state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Model) energy and economic modelling framework and present key results on the role CCS technologies could play in decarbonizng subpeak and peak generation (encompassing only the top 10% of the load) and under what conditions. To do this, the authors have modelled two hypothetical climate policies that require 50% and 80% reductions in US emissions from business as usual by the middle of this century. Intermediate electricity generation is virtually decarbonized once carbon prices exceed approximately $150/tonCO2. When CO2 permit prices exceed $160/tonCO2, natural gas power plants with CCS have roughly the same marketshare as conventional gas plants in serving subpeak loads. The penetration of CCS into peak load (upper 6% here) is minimal under the scenarios modeled here suggesting that CO2 emissions from this aspect of the U.S. electricity sector would persist well into the future even with stringent CO2 emission control policies in place.

  2. 75 FR 30018 - Western Electric Coordinating Council; Notice of Institution of Proceeding and Refund Effective Date

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-28

    ... U.S.C. 824e, concerning the spot market energy price cap in the Western Electric Coordinating... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Western Electric Coordinating Council; Notice of Institution of Proceeding...

  3. Fairness and dynamic pricing: comments

    SciTech Connect

    Hogan, William W.

    2010-07-15

    In ''The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,'' Ahmad Faruqui lays out a case for improved efficiency in using dynamic prices for retail electricity tariffs and addresses various issues about the distributional effects of alternative pricing mechanisms. The principal contrast is between flat or nearly constant energy prices and time-varying prices that reflect more closely the marginal costs of energy and capacity. The related issues of fairness criteria, contracts, risk allocation, cost allocation, means testing, real-time pricing, and ethical policies of electricity market design also must be considered. (author)

  4. Uranium prices continue their upward climb

    SciTech Connect

    1996-03-01

    This article is the uranium market overview for the month of February 1996. Prices were up in the spot market for U3O8, while conversion market prices and SWU prices remained steady. There were six trades in the U3O8 spot market, ten deals in the long-term U3O8 market, three deals in the conversion market, and a single deal in the SWU market.

  5. Observed Temperature Effects on Hourly Residential Electric LoadReduction in Response to an Experimental Critical Peak PricingTariff

    SciTech Connect

    Herter, Karen B.; McAuliffe, Patrick K.; Rosenfeld, Arthur H.

    2005-11-14

    The goal of this investigation was to characterize themanual and automated response of residential customers to high-price"critical" events dispatched under critical peak pricing tariffs testedin the 2003-2004 California Statewide Pricing Pilot. The 15-monthexperimental tariff gave customers a discounted two-price time-of-userate on 430 days in exchange for 27 critical days, during which the peakperiod price (2 p.m. to 7 p.m.) was increased to about three times thenormal time-of-use peak price. We calculated response by five-degreetemperature bins as the difference between peak usage on normal andcritical weekdays. Results indicatedthat manual response to criticalperiods reached -0.23 kW per home (-13 percent) in hot weather(95-104.9oF), -0.03 kW per home (-4 percent) in mild weather (60-94.9oF),and -0.07 kW per home (-9 percent) during cold weather (50-59.9oF).Separately, we analyzed response enhanced by programmable communicatingthermostats in high-use homes with air-conditioning. Between 90oF and94.9oF, the response of this group reached -0.56 kW per home (-25percent) for five-hour critical periods and -0.89 kW/home (-41 percent)for two-hour critical periods.

  6. Age Spots

    MedlinePlus

    ... Surgery Conditions Acne Scars Aging Hands Age Spots Aging Skin Birthmarks Burn Scars Cellulite Crow's Feet Droopy Eyelids ... Surgery Conditions Acne Scars Aging Hands Age Spots Aging Skin Birthmarks Burn Scars Cellulite Crow's Feet Droopy Eyelids ...

  7. New methods devised specify the size and color of the spots monkeys see when striate cortex (area V1) is electrically stimulated.

    PubMed

    Schiller, Peter H; Slocum, Warren M; Kwak, Michelle C; Kendall, Geoffrey L; Tehovnik, Edward J

    2011-10-25

    Creating a prosthetic device for the blind is a central future task. Our research examines the feasibility of producing a prosthetic device based on electrical stimulation of primary visual cortex (area V1), an area that remains intact for many years after loss of vision attributable to damage to the eyes. As an initial step in this effort, we believe that the research should be carried out in animals, as it has been in the creation of the highly successful cochlear implant. We chose the rhesus monkey, whose visual system is similar to that of man. We trained monkeys on two tasks to assess the size, contrast, and color of the percepts created when single sites in area V1 are stimulated through microelectrodes. Here, we report that electrical stimulation within the central 5° of the visual field representation creates a small spot that is between 9 and 26 min of arc in diameter and has a contrast ranging between 2.6% and 10%. The dot generated by the stimulation in the majority of cases was darker than the background viewed by the animal and was composed of a variety of low-contrast colors. These findings can be used as inputs to models of electrical stimulation in area V1. On the basis of these findings, we derive what kinds of images would be expected when implanted arrays of electrodes are stimulated through a camera attached to the head whose images are converted into electrical stimulation using appropriate algorithms.

  8. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  9. Lyondell outage spikes prices

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-07

    Methanol spot markets in the US Gulf Coast cooled a bit late last week from their Monday spike in the wake of a pipeline rupture and fire that shut down Lyondell Petrochemical`s Channelview, TX complex and its 248-million gal/year methanol plant. The unit resumed production last week and was expected to return to full service by August 3. Offering prices shot up at least 10% over the pre-accident level of about 50 cts/gal fob. No actual business could be confirmed at a price of more than 52 cts-53 cts/gal, however.

  10. The marginal effects of the price for carbon dioxide: quantifying the effects on the market for electric generation in Florida

    SciTech Connect

    Kury, Theodore J.; Harrington, Julie

    2010-05-15

    Greater emphasis on public policy aimed at internalizing the societal cost of carbon dioxide emissions leads to more questions about the economic impacts of that policy. In cooperation with the State of Florida's Department of Environmental Protection, the authors have constructed a model to simulate the dispatch of electric generating units to serve electric load in the state - and obtained some counterintuitive results. (author)

  11. Adapting to changing energy prices: proceedings of the 1981 IAEE conference

    SciTech Connect

    Waverman, L.; Watkins, C.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference whose purpose was to discuss the effects of higher energy prices resulting from the substantial jumps in world oil prices after the Iranian revolution. Topics considered at the conference included the energy resource base of developing countries, investments in energy supply industries and the economy of the OECD, modeling OPEC behavior, the natural gas resources of Western Europe, the situation in the IEA countries, price and income elasticities in OECD countries, time-of-use pricing for residential electricity customers, UK industrial energy use since 1973, the use of petroleum futures to stabilize energy costs and profits, spot and futures market oil price formation, energy pricing and utilization of coal in Alberta, the economics of oil sands, the outlook for synthetic fuels, comparative resource costs of energy from waste, financing solar repowering, interruptible power, competing energy uses for wood wastes in British Columbia, the adjustment to higher oil prices in Brazil, a national energy assessment of the Dominican Republic, the impact of oil price shocks on Sweden, and the energy and economic climate of Taiwan.

  12. Learning from the implementation of residential optional time of use pricing in the United States electricity industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xibao

    Residential time-of-use (TOU) rates have been in practice in the U.S. since the 1970s. However, for institutional, political, and regulatory reasons, only a very small proportion of residential customers are actually on these schedules. In this thesis, I explore why this is the case by empirically investigating two groups of questions: (1) On the "supply" side: Do utilities choose to offer TOU rates in residential sectors on their own initiative if state commissions do not order them to do so? Since utilities have other options, what is the relationship between the TOU rate and other alternatives? To answer these questions, I survey residential tariffs offered by more than 100 major investor-owned utilities, study the impact of various factors on utilities' rate-making behavior, and examine utility revealed preferences among four rate options: seasonal rates, inverted block rates, demand charges, and TOU rates. Estimated results suggest that the scale of residential sectors and the revenue contribution from residential sectors are the only two significant factors that influence utility decisions on offering TOU rates. Technical and economic considerations are not significant statistically. This implies that the little acceptance of TOU rates is partly attributed to utilities' inadequate attention to TOU rate design. (2) On the "demand" side: For utilities offering TOU tariffs, why do only a very small proportion of residential customers choose these tariffs? What factors influence customer choices? Unlike previous studies that used individual-level experimental data, this research employs actual aggregated information from 29 utilities offering optional TOU rates. By incorporating neo-classical demand analysis into an aggregated random coefficient logit model, I investigate the impact of both price and non-price tariff characteristics and non-tariff factors on customer choice behavior. The analysis indicates that customer pure tariff preference (which captures the

  13. Studies of breakeven prices and electricity supply potentials of nuclear fusion by a long-term world energy and environment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokimatsu, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Konishi, S.; Fujino, J.; Ogawa, Y.; Okano, K.; Nishio, S.; Yoshida, T.; Hiwatari, R.; Yamaji, K.

    2002-11-01

    In response to social demand, this paper investigates the breakeven price (BP) and potential electricity supply of nuclear fusion energy in the 21st century by means of a world energy and environment model. We set the following objectives in this paper: (i) to reveal the economics of the introduction conditions of nuclear fusion; (ii) to know when tokamak-type nuclear fusion reactors are expected to be introduced cost-effectively into future energy systems; (iii) to estimate the share in 2100 of electricity produced by the presently designed reactors that could be economically selected in the year. The model can give in detail the energy and environment technologies and price-induced energy saving, and can illustrate optimal energy supply structures by minimizing the costs of total discounted energy systems at a discount rate of 5%. The following parameters of nuclear fusion were considered: cost of electricity (COE) in the nuclear fusion introduction year, annual COE reduction rates, regional introduction year, and regional nuclear fusion capacity projection. The investigations are carried out for three nuclear fusion projections one of which includes tritium breeding constraints, four future CO2 concentration constraints, and technological assumptions on fossil fuels, nuclear fission, CO2 sequestration, and anonymous innovative technologies. It is concluded that: (1) the BPs are from 65 to 125 mill kW-1 h-1 depending on the introduction year of nuclear fusion under the 550 ppmv CO2 concentration constraints; those of a business-as-usual (BAU) case are from 51 to 68 mill kW-1h-1. Uncertainties resulting from the CO2 concentration constraints and the technological options influenced the BPs by plus/minus some 10 30 mill kW-1h-1, (2) tokamak-type nuclear fusion reactors (as presently designed, with a COE range around 70 130 mill kW-1h-1) would be favourably introduced into energy systems after 2060 based on the economic criteria under the 450 and 550 ppmv CO2

  14. Spot foreign exchange market and time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petroni, F.; Serva, M.

    2003-08-01

    We investigate high frequency price dynamics in foreign exchange market using data from Reuters information system (the dataset has been provided to us by Olsen and Associates). In our analysis we show that a naïve approach to the definition of price (for example using the spot mid price) may lead to wrong conclusions on price behavior as for example the presence of short term correlations for returns. For this purpose we introduce an algorithm which only uses the non arbitrage principle to estimate real prices from the spot ones. The new definition leads to returns which are not affected by spurious correlations. Furthermore, any apparent information (defined by using Shannon entropy) contained in the data disappears.

  15. Do state-level RPS policies in the U.S. deliver anticipated benefits? Examining the impact of federalized energy and environment policy on electricity price and quantity, use of renewables, and carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cochran, Joseph Alleyn

    In this dissertation, I present the findings of a formative evaluation of the changes in the electricity markets of states that implemented renewable portfolio standards (RPS policies) from 2000 to 2010. The formative evaluation is an assessment of the consequences of RPS policies that I conducted for adopting states that were still implementing their RPS policies. Using governmental data as my primary sources, I estimated the changes in carbon intensity within adopting states. I also examined the changes attributable to RPS policies in electricity prices, electricity revenues, electricity production, carbon dioxide emissions, and renewable electricity production within adopting states in order to gain a more detailed understanding of the changes in the electricity markets of adopting states caused by RPS policies. Using OLS regressions and path analysis models, I found these policies have not yet improved the electricity markets of adopting states by significantly reducing carbon intensity from 2000 to 2010, in sharp contrast with the expectations reported in the professional literature.

  16. The ability of battery second use strategies to impact plug-in electric vehicle prices and serve utility energy storage applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neubauer, Jeremy; Pesaran, Ahmad

    The high cost of lithium ion batteries is a major impediment to the increased market share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and full electric vehicles (EVs). The reuse of PHEV/EV propulsion batteries in second use applications following the end of their automotive service life may have the potential to offset the high initial cost of these batteries today. Accurately assessing the value of such a strategy is exceedingly complex and entails many uncertainties. This paper takes a first step toward such an assessment by estimating the impact of battery second use on the initial cost of PHEV/EV batteries to automotive consumers and exploring the potential for grid-based energy storage applications to serve as a market for used PHEV/EV batteries. It is found that although battery second use is not expected to significantly affect today's PHEV/EV prices, it has the potential to become a common component of future automotive battery life cycles and potentially to transform markets in need of cost-effective energy storage. Based on these findings, the authors advise further investigation focused on forecasting long-term battery degradation and analyzing second-use applications in more detail.

  17. Optimal strategies for electric energy contract decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Haili

    2000-10-01

    The power industry restructuring in various countries in recent years has created an environment where trading of electric energy is conducted in a market environment. In such an environment, electric power companies compete for the market share through spot and bilateral markets. Being profit driven, electric power companies need to make decisions on spot market bidding, contract evaluation, and risk management. New methods and software tools are required to meet these upcoming needs. In this research, bidding strategy and contract pricing are studied from a market participant's viewpoint; new methods are developed to guide a market participant in spot and bilateral market operation. A supplier's spot market bidding decision is studied. Stochastic optimization is formulated to calculate a supplier's optimal bids in a single time period. This decision making problem is also formulated as a Markov Decision Process. All the competitors are represented by their bidding parameters with corresponding probabilities. A systematic method is developed to calculate transition probabilities and rewards. The optimal strategy is calculated to maximize the expected reward over a planning horizon. Besides the spot market, a power producer can also trade in the bilateral markets. Bidding strategies in a bilateral market are studied with game theory techniques. Necessary and sufficient conditions of Nash Equilibrium (NE) bidding strategy are derived based on the generators' cost and the loads' willingness to pay. The study shows that in any NE, market efficiency is achieved. Furthermore, all Nash equilibria are revenue equivalent for the generators. The pricing of "Flexible" contracts, which allow delivery flexibility over a period of time with a fixed total amount of electricity to be delivered, is analyzed based on the no-arbitrage pricing principle. The proposed algorithm calculates the price based on the optimality condition of the stochastic optimization formulation

  18. SPOT Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Jason T.; Welsh, Sam J.; Farinetti, Antonio L.; Wegner, Tim; Blakeslee, James; Deboeck, Toni F.; Dyer, Daniel; Corley, Bryan M.; Ollivierre, Jarmaine; Kramer, Leonard; hide

    2010-01-01

    A Spacecraft Position Optimal Tracking (SPOT) program was developed to process Global Positioning System (GPS) data, sent via telemetry from a spacecraft, to generate accurate navigation estimates of the vehicle position and velocity (state vector) using a Kalman filter. This program uses the GPS onboard receiver measurements to sequentially calculate the vehicle state vectors and provide this information to ground flight controllers. It is the first real-time ground-based shuttle navigation application using onboard sensors. The program is compact, portable, self-contained, and can run on a variety of UNIX or Linux computers. The program has a modular objec-toriented design that supports application-specific plugins such as data corruption remediation pre-processing and remote graphics display. The Kalman filter is extensible to additional sensor types or force models. The Kalman filter design is also strong against data dropouts because it uses physical models from state and covariance propagation in the absence of data. The design of this program separates the functionalities of SPOT into six different executable processes. This allows for the individual processes to be connected in an a la carte manner, making the feature set and executable complexity of SPOT adaptable to the needs of the user. Also, these processes need not be executed on the same workstation. This allows for communications between SPOT processes executing on the same Local Area Network (LAN). Thus, SPOT can be executed in a distributed sense with the capability for a team of flight controllers to efficiently share the same trajectory information currently being computed by the program. SPOT is used in the Mission Control Center (MCC) for Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and International Space Station Program (ISSP) operations, and can also be used as a post -flight analysis tool. It is primarily used for situational awareness, and for contingency situations.

  19. Volatile pipe prices ahead

    SciTech Connect

    Perkins, C.

    1988-01-01

    Over the last 10 years, prices for oilfield casing and tubing have shot up and down like a roller coaster. Average pipe prices went up 80 percent in the 1979-81 drilling boom. They dropped 50 percent in the 1982-83 period, only to recover 20 percent in 1984-85. The collapse of crude prices caused another 30 percent drop in 1986. Since they bottomed out in August of that year, prices have come up by 60 percent. The key question: ''What lies ahead.'' The short answer: ''Probably more of the same''. This article looks at what has caused price fluctuations of such magnitude and volatility over the past several years to assess the outlook for 1988 and beyond. The author says we are not on the brink of a severe OCTG shortage of any sort, though there may be some very localized spot shortages in terms of deliverability and price. There is likely to be some build up of tubular inventory among supply houses wary of losing regular customers to those with adequate inventories. The characteristic first-of-the-year dip in the active rig count will supplement a slight inventory building, as will an expected increase in imports. The bottomline impact for the wellsite is there is little chance for substantial price increases until the third or fourth quarter of this year. Even then, a considerable jump in utilization would be needed and most analysts are predicting the rig count to slowly rise to about the 1500-plus range for the fourth quarter.

  20. Dark Spots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    Dark spots (left) and 'fans' appear to scribble dusty hieroglyphics on top of the Martian south polar cap in two high-resolution Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Orbiter Camera images taken in southern spring. Each image is about 3-kilometers wide (2-miles).

  1. Essays on measurement and evaluation of demand side management programs in the electricity industry, and impacts of firm strategy on stock price in the biotechnology industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandres Motola, Miguel A.

    Essay one estimates changes in small business customer energy consumption (kWh) patterns resulting from a seasonally differentiated pricing structure. Econometric analysis leverages cross-sectional time series data across the entire population of affected customers, from 2007 through the present. Observations include: monthly energy usage (kWh), relevant customer segmentations, local daily temperature, energy price, and region-specific economic conditions, among other variables. The study identifies the determinants of responsiveness to seasonal price differentiation. In addition, estimated energy consumption changes occurring during the 2010 summer season are reported for the average customer and in aggregate grouped by relevant customer segments, climate zone, and total customer base. Essay two develops an econometric modeling methodology to evaluate load impacts for short duration demand response events. The study analyzes time series data from a season of direct load control program tests aimed at integrating demand response into the wholesale electricity market. I have combined "fuzzy logic" with binary variables to create "fuzzy indicator variables" that allow for measurement of short duration events while using industry standard model specifications. Typically, binary variables for every hour are applied in load impact analysis of programs dispatched in hourly intervals. As programs evolve towards integration with the wholesale market, event durations become irregular and often occur for periods of only a few minutes. This methodology is innovative in that it conserves the degrees of freedom in the model while allowing for analysis of high frequency data using fixed effects. Essay three examines the effects of strategies, intangibles, and FDA news on the stocks of young biopharmaceutical firms. An event study methodology is used to explore those effects. This study investigates 20,839 announcements from 1990 to 2005. Announcements on drug development

  2. Defrosting Spots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    3 October 2005 This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows dark, defrosting spots formed on a polygon-cracked plain in the south polar region of Mars. The surface was covered with carbon dioxide frost during the previous winter. In spring, the material begins to sublime away, creating a pattern of dark spots that sometimes have wind streaks emanating from them, as wind carries away or erodes the frost.

    Location near: 87.2oS, 28.4oW Image width: width: 3 km (1.9 mi) Illumination from: upper left Season: Southern Spring

  3. Pricing Options.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tenopir, Carol

    1998-01-01

    Presents results of a recent survey of over 100 public and academic libraries about pricing options from online companies. Most options fall into three categories: pay-as-you-go, fixed-rate, and user-based. Results are discussed separately for public and academic libraries and for consortial discounts. Trends in pricing options preferred by…

  4. Pricing Options.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tenopir, Carol

    1998-01-01

    Presents results of a recent survey of over 100 public and academic libraries about pricing options from online companies. Most options fall into three categories: pay-as-you-go, fixed-rate, and user-based. Results are discussed separately for public and academic libraries and for consortial discounts. Trends in pricing options preferred by…

  5. Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present.

  6. Mongolian spots.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Divya; Thappa, Devinder Mohan

    2013-01-01

    Mongolian spots (MS) are birthmarks that are present at birth and their most common location is sacrococcygeal or lumbar area. Lesions may be single or multiple and usually involve < 5% total body surface area. They are macular and round, oval or irregular in shape. The color varies from blue to greenish, gray, black or a combination of any of the above. The size varies from few to more than 20 centimetres. Pigmentation is most intense at the age of one year and gradually fades thereafter. It is rarely seen after the age of 6 years. Aberrant MS over occiput, temple, mandibular area, shoulders and limbs may be confused with other dermal melanocytoses and bruises secondary to child abuse, thus necessitating documentation at birth. Although regarded as benign, recent data suggest that MS may be associated with inborn errors of metabolism and neurocristopathies. Mongolian spots usually resolve by early childhood and hence no treatment is generally needed if they are located in the sacral area. However, sometimes it may be required for extrasacral lesions for cosmesis.

  7. Red Spot Spotted by Juno

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2016-06-30

    NASA's Juno spacecraft obtained this color view on June 28, 2016, at a distance of 3.9 million miles (6.2 million kilometers) from Jupiter. As Juno nears its destination, features on the giant planet are increasingly visible, including the Great Red Spot. The spacecraft is approaching over Jupiter's north pole, providing a unique perspective on the Jupiter system, including its four large moons. The scene was captured by the mission's imaging camera, called JunoCam, which is designed to acquire high resolution views of features in Jupiter's atmosphere from very close to the planet. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20705

  8. Electricity

    SciTech Connect

    Sims, B.

    1983-01-01

    Historical aspects of electricity are reviewed with individual articles on hydroelectric dams, coal-burning power plants, nuclear power plants, electricity distribution, and the energy future. A glossary is included. (PSB)

  9. Southern Spots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Context image for PIA03092 Southern Spots

    This VIS image of the south polar region was collected during the summer season. The markings of the pole are very diverse and easy to see after the winter frost has been removed.

    Image information: VIS instrument. Latitude 79.7S, Longitude 56.6E. 17 meter/pixel resolution.

    Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project policies at a later time.

    NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) was developed by Arizona State University, Tempe, in collaboration with Raytheon Santa Barbara Remote Sensing. The THEMIS investigation is led by Dr. Philip Christensen at Arizona State University. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for the Odyssey project, and developed and built the orbiter. Mission operations are conducted jointly from Lockheed Martin and from JPL, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

  10. Are 'hot spots' hot spots?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foulger, Gillian R.

    2012-07-01

    The term 'hot spot' emerged in the 1960s from speculations that Hawaii might have its origins in an unusually hot source region in the mantle. It subsequently became widely used to refer to volcanic regions considered to be anomalous in the then-new plate tectonic paradigm. It carried with it the implication that volcanism (a) is emplaced by a single, spatially restricted, mongenetic melt-delivery system, assumed to be a mantle plume, and (b) that the source is unusually hot. This model has tended to be assumed a priori to be correct. Nevertheless, there are many geological ways of testing it, and a great deal of work has recently been done to do so. Two fundamental problems challenge this work. First is the difficulty of deciding a 'normal' mantle temperature against which to compare estimates. This is usually taken to be the source temperature of mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs). However, Earth's surface conduction layer is ˜200 km thick, and such a norm is not appropriate if the lavas under investigation formed deeper than the 40-50 km source depth of MORB. Second, methods for estimating temperature suffer from ambiguity of interpretation with composition and partial melt, controversy regarding how they should be applied, lack of repeatability between studies using the same data, and insufficient precision to detect the 200-300 °C temperature variations postulated. Available methods include multiple seismological and petrological approaches, modelling bathymetry and topography, and measuring heat flow. Investigations have been carried out in many areas postulated to represent either (hot) plume heads or (hotter) tails. These include sections of the mid-ocean spreading ridge postulated to include ridge-centred plumes, the North Atlantic Igneous Province, Iceland, Hawaii, oceanic plateaus, and high-standing continental areas such as the Hoggar swell. Most volcanic regions that may reasonably be considered anomalous in the simple plate-tectonic paradigm have been

  11. Spot-Welding Gun Is Easy To Use

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morgan, Gene E.; Nguyen, Francis H.

    1991-01-01

    Electrical-resistance spot-welding gun designed to produce more welds per unit time by decreasing technician's effort and fatigue. Vacuum cups on frame secure welding gun to workpiece while compressed air drives welding tip against workpiece to make spot resistance weld. When weld completed, vacuum in frame cups released so frame and gun moved to position of next spot weld.

  12. Spot-Welding Gun Is Easy To Use

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morgan, Gene E.; Nguyen, Francis H.

    1991-01-01

    Electrical-resistance spot-welding gun designed to produce more welds per unit time by decreasing technician's effort and fatigue. Vacuum cups on frame secure welding gun to workpiece while compressed air drives welding tip against workpiece to make spot resistance weld. When weld completed, vacuum in frame cups released so frame and gun moved to position of next spot weld.

  13. What factors affect the prices of low-priced U.S. solar PV systems?

    DOE PAGES

    Nemet, Gregory F.; O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan; ...

    2017-08-09

    The price of solar PV systems has declined rapidly, yet there are some much lower-priced systems than others. This study explores the factors that determine prices in these low-priced (LP) systems. Using a data set of 42,611 residential-scale PV systems installed in the U.S. in 2013, we use quantile regressions to estimate the importance of factors affecting the installed prices for LP systems (those at the 10th percentile) in comparison to median-priced systems. We find that the value of solar to consumers-a variable that accounts for subsidies, electric rates, and PV generation levels-is associated with lower prices for LP systemsmore » but higher prices for median priced systems. Conversely, systems installed in new home construction are associated with lower prices at the median but higher prices for LP. Other variables have larger price-reducing effects on LP than on median priced systems: systems installed in Arizona and Florida, as well as commercial and thin film systems. In contrast, the following have a smaller effect on prices for LP systems than median priced systems: tracking systems, self-installations, systems installed in Massachusetts, the system size, and installer experience. Furthermore, these results highlight the complex factors at play that lead to LP systems and shed light into how such LP systems can come about.« less

  14. Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Koichiro

    This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do

  15. Reference pricing and firms' pricing strategies.

    PubMed

    Miraldo, Marisa

    2009-01-01

    Within a horizontal differentiation model and allowing for heterogeneous qualities, we analyze the effects of reference pricing reimbursement on firms' pricing strategies. With this analysis we find inherent incentives for firms' pricing behavior, and consequently we shed some light on the time consistency of such policy. The analysis encompasses different reference price rules: (i) reference price as the minimum of the observed prices in the market, (ii) reference price as a linear combination of firms' prices. Results show that under the "minimum policy" firms are not able to coordinate on higher prices while the "linear policy", implicitly, provides a coordination device. We have also found that, relatively to the "linear policy", when the reference price is the minimum of observed prices, after policy implementation, total and private expenditures are higher and consumer surplus and firms' profits are lower. With quality differentiation both the minimum and linear policies unambiguously lead to higher prices.

  16. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  17. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  18. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  19. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  20. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... lengths, micronaire determinations, and other quality factors for each spot market on a daily basis. (The... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... prices, qualities, volume, and terms of sales in sufficient detail to determine quotations. (c) The...

  1. Electricity Market Module - NEMS Documentation

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    Documents the Electricity Market Module as it was used for the Annual Energy Outlook. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Electricity Load and Demand (ELD) Submodule.

  2. Electricity Market Module - NEMS Documentation

    EIA Publications

    2014-01-01

    Documents the Electricity Market Module as it was used for the Annual Energy Outlook 2013. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Electricity Load and Demand (ELD) Submodule.

  3. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  4. Electric Demand Reduction for the U.S. Navy Public Works Center San Diego, California

    SciTech Connect

    Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW

    2000-09-30

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory investigated the profitability of operating a Navy ship's generators (in San Diego) during high electricity price periods rather than the ships hooking up to the Base electrical system for power. Profitability is predicated on the trade-off between the operating and maintenance cost incurred by the Navy for operating the ship generators and the net profit associated with the sale of the electric power on the spot market. In addition, PNNL assessed the use of the ship's generators as a means to achieve predicted load curtailments, which can then be marketed to the California Independent System Operator.

  5. Natural gas price uncertainty and the cost-effectiveness of hedging against low hydropower revenues caused by drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kern, Jordan D.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Foster, Benjamin T.

    2015-04-01

    Prolonged periods of low reservoir inflows (droughts) significantly reduce a hydropower producer's ability to generate both electricity and revenues. Given the capital intensive nature of the electric power industry, this can impact hydropower producers' ability to pay down outstanding debt, leading to credit rating downgrades, higher interests rates on new debt, and ultimately, greater infrastructure costs. One potential tool for reducing the financial exposure of hydropower producers to drought is hydrologic index insurance, in particular, contracts structured to payout when streamflows drop below a specified level. An ongoing challenge in developing this type of insurance, however, is minimizing contracts' "basis risk," that is, the degree to which contract payouts deviate in timing and/or amount from actual damages experienced by policyholders. In this paper, we show that consideration of year-to-year changes in the value of hydropower (i.e., the cost of replacing it with an alternative energy source during droughts) is critical to reducing contract basis risk. In particular, we find that volatility in the price of natural gas, a key driver of peak electricity prices, can significantly degrade the performance of index insurance unless contracts are designed to explicitly consider natural gas prices when determining payouts. Results show that a combined index whose value is derived from both seasonal streamflows and the spot price of natural gas yields contracts that exhibit both lower basis risk and greater effectiveness in terms of reducing financial exposure.

  6. Distributions of Nodal Prices in PJM Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunio, Matsumoto; Yoshio, Ichida; Michiko, Makino; Hiroaki, Tanaka

    As the deregulation of electric business proceeds, it is important to analyze the distributions of prices in the power market. In this paper, we analyze the nodal prices of the PJM market, which is representative of power markets in the US. First, we verify Weibull’s property of the distribution of nodal prices. Then we verify Poisson’s property of the interval of loss process.

  7. State energy price and expenditure report 1993

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-01

    The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 states and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The five economic sectors used in SEPER correspond to those used in SEDR and are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Documentation in appendices describe how the price estimates are developed, provide conversion factors for measures used in the energy analysis, and include a glossary. 65 tabs.

  8. What Factors Affect the Prices of Low-Priced U.S. Solar PV Systems?

    SciTech Connect

    Nemet, Gregory F.; O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan; Darghouth, Naïm R.; Barbose, Galen; Gillingham, Ken; Rai, Varun

    2016-08-01

    The price of solar PV systems has declined rapidly, yet there are some much lower-priced systems than others. This study explores the factors leading some systems to be so much lower priced than others. Using a data set of 42,611 residential-scale PV systems installed in the U.S. in 2013, we use quantile regressions to estimate the importance of factors affecting the installed prices for low-priced (LP) systems (those at the 10th percentile) in comparison to median-priced systems. We find that the value of solar to consumers–a variable that accounts for subsidies, electric rates, and PV generation levels–is associated with lower prices for LP systems but higher prices for median priced systems. Conversely, systems installed in new home construction are associated with lower prices at the median but higher prices for LP. Other variables have larger cost-reducing effects on LP than on median priced systems: systems installed in Arizona and Florida, as well as commercial and thin film systems. In contrast, the following have a smaller effect on prices for LP systems than median priced systems: tracking systems, self-installations, systems installed in Massachusetts, the system size, and installer experience. These results highlight the complex factors at play that lead to LP systems and shed light into how such LP systems can come about.

  9. Defense Logistics Agency Aviation Generally Purchased SoleSource Spare Parts From the General Electric Company at Fair and Reasonable Prices, but Improvements Could Be Made (Redacted)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-07-24

    www.dodig.mil Objective Our audit objective was to determine whether the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Aviation was purchasing sole-source spare parts at...determinations to maintain fair and reasonable prices in the future. We conducted this audit in accordance with generally accepted government auditing ...15 Use of Computer -Processed Data _______________________________________________________ 15 Use of Technical Assistance

  10. Whole Genome Amplification from Blood Spot Samples.

    PubMed

    Sørensen, Karina Meden

    2015-01-01

    Whole genome amplification is an invaluable technique when working with DNA extracted from blood spots, as the DNA obtained from this source often is too limited for extensive genetic analysis. Two techniques that amplify the entire genome are common. Here, both are described with focus on the benefits and drawbacks of each system. However, in order to obtain the best possible WGA result the quality of input DNA extracted from the blood spot is essential, but also time consumption, flexibility in format and elution volume and price of the technology are factors influencing system choice. Here, three DNA extraction techniques are described and the above aspects are compared between the systems.

  11. Documentation of the Retail Price Model

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Retail Price Model (RPM) provides a first‐order estimate of average retail electricity prices using information from the EPA Base Case v.5.13 Base Case or other scenarios for each of the 64 Integrated Planing Model (IPM) regions.

  12. Breakeven Prices for Photovoltaics on Supermarkets in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, S.; Clark, N.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.

    2013-03-01

    The photovoltaic (PV) breakeven price is the PV system price at which the cost of PV-generated electricity equals the cost of electricity purchased from the grid. This point is also called 'grid parity' and can be expressed as dollars per watt ($/W) of installed PV system capacity. Achieving the PV breakeven price depends on many factors, including the solar resource, local electricity prices, customer load profile, PV incentives, and financing. In the United States, where these factors vary substantially across regions, breakeven prices vary substantially across regions as well. In this study, we estimate current and future breakeven prices for PV systems installed on supermarkets in the United States. We also evaluate key drivers of current and future commercial PV breakeven prices by region. The results suggest that breakeven prices for PV systems installed on supermarkets vary significantly across the United States. Non-technical factors -- including electricity rates, rate structures, incentives, and the availability of system financing -- drive break-even prices more than technical factors like solar resource or system orientation. In 2020 (where we assume higher electricity prices and lower PV incentives), under base-case assumptions, we estimate that about 17% of supermarkets will be in utility territories where breakeven conditions exist at a PV system price of $3/W; this increases to 79% at $1.25/W (the DOE SunShot Initiative's commercial PV price target for 2020). These percentages increase to 26% and 91%, respectively, when rate structures favorable to PV are used.

  13. The High Price of Noise Exposure

    MedlinePlus

    ... Current Issue Past Issues Hearing Disorders The High Price of Noise Exposure Past Issues / Fall 2008 Table ... These tiny structures convert sound waves into electrical energy. Our auditory nerve sends this energy to the ...

  14. 77 FR 71788 - Notice of Change to the Publication of Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-04

    ... Information Administration Notice of Change to the Publication of Natural Gas Wellhead Prices AGENCY: U.S... and an NGL composite spot price at Mont Belvieu. Comments are invited on the proposed change. Please... conceptual issues associated with the series. Historically, the EIA published natural gas wellhead prices...

  15. A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 2: Derivation of system energy price equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; McMaster, K. M.

    1981-10-01

    The methodology presented is a derivation of the utility owned solar electric systems model. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs including a specified return on investment. Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break-even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero.

  16. A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 2: Derivation of system energy price equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Mcmaster, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The methodology presented is a derivation of the utility owned solar electric systems model. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs including a specified return on investment. Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break-even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero.

  17. Price controls and international petroleum product prices

    SciTech Connect

    Deacon, R.T.; Mead, W.J.; Agarwal, V.B.

    1980-02-01

    The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.

  18. Mongolian blue spots (image)

    MedlinePlus

    Mongolian blue spots are flat bluish- to bluish-gray skin markings commonly appearing at birth or shortly ... back and also can appear on the shoulders. Mongolian spots are benign and are not associated with ...

  19. Rocky Mountain spotted fever

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000654.htm Rocky Mountain spotted fever To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a disease caused by a ...

  20. Electric power annual 1998. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    The purpose of this report, Electric Power Annual 1998 Volume 1 (EPAVI), is to provide a comprehensive overview of the electric power industry during the most recent year for which data have been collected, with an emphasis on the major changes that occurred. In response to the changes of 1998, this report has been expanded in scope. It begins with a general review of the year and incorporates new data on nonutility capacity and generation, transmission information, futures prices from the Commodity futures Trading commission, and wholesale spot market prices from the pennsylvania-new Jersey-Maryland Independent System Operator and the California Power Exchange. Electric utility statistics at the Census division and State levels on generation, fuel consumption, stocks, delivered cost of fossil fuels, sales to ultimate customers, average revenue per kilowatthour of electricity sold, and revenues from those retail sales can be found in Appendix A. The EPAVI is intended for a wide audience, including Congress, Federal and State agencies, the electric power industry, and the general public.

  1. State Energy Price System: 1982 update

    SciTech Connect

    Imhoff, K.L.; Fang, J.M.

    1984-10-01

    The State Energy Price System (STEPS) contains estimates of energy prices for ten major fuels (electricity, natural gas, metallurgical coal, steam coal, distillate, motor gasoline, diesel, kerosene/jet fuel, residual fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas), by major end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility), and by state through 1982. Both physical unit prices and prices per million Btu are included in STEPS. Major changes in STEPS data base for 1981 and 1982 are described. The most significant changes in procedures for the updates occur in the residential sector distillate series and the residential sector kerosene series. All physical unit and Btu prices are shown with three significant digits instead of with four significant digits as shown in the original documentation. Details of these and other changes are contained in this report, along with the updated data files. 31 references, 65 tables.

  2. Information-time based futures pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yen, Simon; Wang, Jai Jen

    2009-09-01

    This study follows Clark [P.K. Clark, A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices, Econometrica 41 (1973) 135-155] and Chang, Chang and Lim [C.W. Chang, S.K. Chang, K.G. Lim, Information-time option pricing: Theory and empirical evidence, Journal of Financial Economics 48 (1998) 211-242] to subordinate an information-time based directing process into calendar-time based parent processes. A closed-form futures pricing formula is derived after taking into account the information-time setting and the stochasticity of the spot price, interest rate, and convenience yield. According to the empirical results on the TAIEX and TFETX data from 1998/7/21 to 2003/12/31, the information-time based model performs better than its calendar-time based counterpart and the cost of carry model, especially when the information arrival intensity estimates become larger.

  3. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1986

    Treesearch

    Dennis M. May

    1988-01-01

    In 1986, the average price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $47.20, a decrease of 6 percent from the 1985 price. The average price for a green ton of chipped residues also decreased, down 1 percent to $21.77. The average price for a green ton of sawdust fell to $10.25, 3 percent below the 1985 price. Between 1977 and 1986, real prices for roundwood fell, but real...

  4. The welfare effects of raising household energy prices in Poland

    SciTech Connect

    Freund, C.L.; Wallich, C.I.

    1996-06-01

    We examine the welfare effects from increasing household energy prices in Poland. Subsidizing household energy prices, common in the transition economies, is shown to be highly regressive. The wealthy spend a larger portion of their income on energy and consume more energy in absolute terms. We therefore rule out the oft-used social welfare argument for delaying household energy price increases. Raising prices, while targeting relief to the poor through a social assistance program is the first-best response. However, if governments want to ease the adjustment, several options are open, including: in-kind transfers to the poor, vouchers, in-cash transfers, and lifeline pricing for electricity. Our simulations show that if raising prices to efficient levels is not politically feasible at present and social assistance targeting is sufficiently weak, it may be socially better to use lifeline pricing and a large price increase than an overall, but smaller, price increase.

  5. Maintaining Generation Adequacy in a Restructuring U.S. Electricity Industry

    SciTech Connect

    Hirst, E.; Hadley, S.

    1999-10-01

    Historically, decisions on the amounts, locations, types, and timing of investments in new generation have been made by vertically integrated utilities with approval from state public utility commissions. As the U.S. electricity industry is restructured, these decisions are being fragmented and dispersed among a variety of organizations. As generation is deregulated and becomes increasingly competitive, decisions on whether to build new generators and to retire, maintain, or repower existing units will increasingly be made by unregulated for-profit corporations. These decisions will be based largely on investor assessments of future profitability and only secondarily on regional reliability requirements. In addition, some customers will choose to face real-time (spot) prices and will respond to the occasionally very high prices by reducing electricity use at those times. Market-determined generation levels will, relative to centrally mandated reserve margins, lead to: (1) more volatile energy prices; (2) lower electricity costs and prices; and (3) a generation mix with more baseload, and less peaking, capacity. During the transition from a vertically integrated, regulated industry to a deintegrated, competitive industry, government regulators and system operators may continue to impose minimum-installed-capacity requirements on load-serving entities. As the industry gains experience with customer responses to real-time pricing and with operation of competitive intrahour energy markets, these requirements will likely disappear. We quantitatively analyzed these issues with the Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch model (ORCED). Model results show that the optimal reserve margin depends on various factors, including fuel prices, initial mix of generation capacity, and customer response to electricity prices (load shapes and system load factor). Because the correct reserve margin depends on these generally unpredictable factors, mandated reserve margins might be

  6. The Australian electricity market's pre-dispatch process: Some observations on its efficiency using ordered probit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zainudin, Wan Nur Rahini Aznie; Becker, Ralf; Clements, Adam

    2015-12-01

    Many market participants in Australia Electricity Market had cast doubts on whether the pre-dispatch process in the electricity market is able to give them good and timely quantity and price information. In a study by [11], they observed a significant bias (mainly indicating that the pre-dispatch process tends to underestimate spot price outcomes), a seasonality features of the bias across seasons and/or trading periods and changes in bias across the years in our sample period (1999 to 2007). In a formal setting of an ordered probit model we establish that there are some exogenous variables that are able to explain increased probabilities of over- or under-predictions of the spot price. It transpires that meteorological data, expected pre-dispatch prices and information on past over- and under-predictions contribute significantly to explaining variation in the probabilities for over- and under-predictions. The results allow us to conjecture that some of the bids and re-bids provided by electricity generators are not made in good faith.

  7. Tactical Buying Decisions for Strategic Petroleum Reserve Spot Procurements: The Tunnel Theory,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Procurement of crude oil on the spot market at minimum prices requires economic analysis which focuses on the discovery of market price levels and... crude oil market. Variables suggested by the economic theory of raw material and commodity markets are investigated. The demand for incremental (spot...volumes of crude oil is found to be derived from the demand for incremental volumes of petroleum products. Insights gained from this analysis are

  8. Policies of price regulators in periods of high or increasing costs and their potential long-term effect on investment: The case of the electric utility industry in the 1970s and 1980s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardarson, Pall

    This study presents and estimates a model of electric utility regulation during periods of high or rising costs. Regulators are viewed as utility maximizers, whose utility function is influenced by political pressure from consumers and the regulated firms. The model can also be interpreted as a reduced form bargaining model. Although regulators have frequently been modeled in the theoretical literature on regulation as having a well defined utility function, this is, to my knowledge, the first empirical study of electric utility regulation that takes this approach. This study also uses a far larger data set than previous studies on electric utility regulation. It is found that policies like those carried out by price regulators during the 1970s and 1980s can potentially lead to serious underinvestment. This underinvestment result applies to all states in my sample. The underinvestment bias, however, is likely to be mitigated if high cost periods are short in duration. Based on the estimation results of this study, states are ranked according to the regulatory climate for the regulated firms. Regulatory policies between states differed significantly. Policies like those in states with the least favorable regulatory climate appear likely to frequently jeopardize utilities' financial position during high cost periods, whereas policies in states with average to good regulatory climate (relative to my sample) are much less likely to do so. This study also examines the effect on regulatory policies of a few political variables commonly included in studies of electric utility regulators. The effect of these variables is found to be negligible. This result, as well as the underinvestment result and the ranking of states according to regulatory climate, is in general agreement with previous empirical work.

  9. Residential electricity demand in Arkansas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Resendez, Ileana M.

    This study analyzes residential electricity demand in Arkansas. Explanatory variables utilized include real per capita income, residential electricity price, heating degree days, cooling degree days, and residential natural gas price. The results indicate that the income effect dominates the substitution effect given a real personal income increase and a decline in real electricity rates in the state of Arkansas during the period under study.

  10. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas-fired units account for nearly 90% of the total generating capacity added in the U.S. between 1999 and 2005 (EIA 2006b), bringing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation to 19%. Looking ahead over the next decade, the EIA expects this trend to continue, increasing the market share of gas-fired generation to 22% by 2015 (EIA 2007a). Though these numbers are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in many other countries as well. A large percentage of the total cost of gas-fired generation is attributable to fuel costs--i.e., natural gas prices. For example, at current spot prices of around $7/MMBtu, fuel costs account for more than 75% of the levelized cost of energy from a new combined cycle gas turbine, and more than 90% of its operating costs (EIA 2007a). Furthermore, given that gas-fired plants are often the marginal supply units that set the market-clearing price for all generators in a competitive wholesale market, there is a direct link between natural gas prices and wholesale electricity prices. In this light, the dramatic increase in natural gas prices since the 1990s should be a cause for ratepayer concern. Figure 1 shows the daily price history of the 'first-nearby' (i.e., closest to expiration) NYMEX natural gas futures contract (black line) at Henry Hub, along with the futures strip (i.e., the full series of futures contracts) from August 22, 2007 (red line). First, nearby prices, which closely track spot prices, have recently been trading within a $7-9/MMBtu range in the United States and, as shown by the futures strip, are expected to remain there through 2012. These price levels are $6/MMBtu higher than the $1-3/MMBtu range seen throughout most of the 1990s, demonstrating significant price escalation for natural

  11. Characterizing limit order prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Withanawasam, R. M.; Whigham, P. A.; Crack, Timothy Falcon

    2013-11-01

    A computational model of a limit order book is used to study the effect of different limit order distribution offsets. Reference prices such as same side/contra side best market prices and last traded price are considered in combination with different price offset distributions. We show that when characterizing limit order prices, varying the offset distribution only produces different behavior when the reference price is the contra side best price. Irrespective of the underlying mechanisms used in computing the limit order prices, the shape of the price graph and the behavior of the average order book profile distribution are strikingly similar in all the considered reference prices/offset distributions. This implies that existing averaging methods can cancel variabilities in limit order book shape/attributes and may be misleading.

  12. Energy prices and substitution in United States manufacturing plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grim, Cheryl

    Persistent regional disparities in electricity prices, growth in wholesale power markets, and recent deregulation attempts have intensified interest in the performance of the U.S. electric power industry, while skyrocketing fuel prices have brought renewed interest in the effect of changes in prices of all energy types on the U.S. economy. This dissertation examines energy prices and substitution between energy types in U.S. manufacturing. I use a newly constructed database that includes information on purchased electricity and electricity expenditures for more than 48,000 plants per year and additional data on the utilities that supply electricity to study the distribution of electricity prices paid by U.S. manufacturing plants from 1963 to 2000. I find a large compression in the dispersion of electricity prices from 1963 to 1978 due primarily to a decrease in quantity discounts for large electricity purchasers. I also find that spatial dispersion in retail electricity prices among states, counties and utility service territories is large, rises over time for smaller purchasers, and does not diminish as wholesale power markets expand in the 1990s. In addition, I examine energy type consumption patterns, prices, and substitution in U.S. manufacturing plants. I develop a plant-level dataset for 1998 with data on consumption and expenditures on energy and non-energy production inputs, output, and other plant characteristics. I find energy type consumption patterns vary widely across manufacturing plants. Further, I find a large amount of dispersion across plants in the prices paid for electricity, oil, natural gas, and coal. These high levels of dispersion are accounted for by the plant's location, industry, and purchase quantity. Finally, I present estimates of own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for both the energy and non-energy production inputs.

  13. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1983

    Treesearch

    Dennis M. May

    1985-01-01

    The average price per cord for Midsouth roundwood pulpwood increased less than 1 percent to $48.38 in 1983. The average price for a green ton of chipped mill residues fell 9.3 percent to $23.34. Sawdust prices averaged $13.04 per green ton, a 42.2 percent increase over 1982 prices. Prices for rail delivery of wood fiber continue to be slightly lower than truck...

  14. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1985

    Treesearch

    Dennis M. May

    1987-01-01

    In 1985, the average price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $50.12, a decrease of less than 1 percent from the 1984 price. In contrast, the average price for a green ton of chipped residues decreased to $21.97, 14 percent below the price paid in 1984. The average price for a green ton of sawdust also fell in 1985, dropping 2 percent to $10.60. The 1985 expenditure...

  15. The Role of Nuclear Power in Reducing Risk of the Fossil Fuel Prices and Diversity of Electricity Generation in Tunisia: A Portfolio Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdelhamid, Mohamed Ben; Aloui, Chaker; Chaton, Corinne; Souissi, Jomâa

    2010-04-01

    This paper applies real options and mean-variance portfolio theories to analyze the electricity generation planning into presence of nuclear power plant for the Tunisian case. First, we analyze the choice between fossil fuel and nuclear production. A dynamic model is presented to illustrate the impact of fossil fuel cost uncertainty on the optimal timing to switch from gas to nuclear. Next, we use the portfolio theory to manage risk of the electricity generation portfolio and to determine the optimal fuel mix with the nuclear alternative. Based on portfolio theory, the results show that there is other optimal mix than the mix fixed for the Tunisian mix for the horizon 2010-2020, with lower cost for the same risk degree. In the presence of nuclear technology, we found that the optimal generating portfolio must include 13% of nuclear power technology share.

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter

    EIA Publications

    2013-01-01

    Since November, New England has had the highest average spot natural gas prices in the nation. Average prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point, a widely used index for New England natural gas buyers, have been $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than natural gas prices at the Henry Hub, and more than $2 per MMBtu higher than average spot price at Transco Zone 6 NY, which serves New York City and has historically traded at prices similar to those in New England.

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter

    EIA Publications

    2013-01-01

    Since November, New England has had the highest average spot natural gas prices in the nation. Average prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point, a widely used index for New England natural gas buyers, have been $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than natural gas prices at the Henry Hub, and more than $2 per MMBtu higher than average spot price at Transco Zone 6 NY, which serves New York City and has historically traded at prices similar to those in New England.

  18. Modeling and simulation of consumer response to dynamic pricing.

    SciTech Connect

    Valenzuela, J.; Thimmapuram, P.; Kim, J

    2012-08-01

    Assessing the impacts of dynamic-pricing under the smart grid concept is becoming extremely important for deciding its full deployment. In this paper, we develop a model that represents the response of consumers to dynamic pricing. In the model, consumers use forecasted day-ahead prices to shift daily energy consumption from hours when the price is expected to be high to hours when the price is expected to be low while maintaining the total energy consumption as unchanged. We integrate the consumer response model into the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS). EMCAS is an agent-based model that simulates restructured electricity markets. We explore the impacts of dynamic-pricing on price spikes, peak demand, consumer energy bills, power supplier profits, and congestion costs. A simulation of an 11-node test network that includes eight generation companies and five aggregated consumers is performed for a period of 1 month. In addition, we simulate the Korean power system.

  19. Dual pricing algorithm in ISO markets

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Richard P.; Castillo, Anya; Eldridge, Brent; ...

    2016-10-10

    The challenge to create efficient market clearing prices in centralized day-ahead electricity markets arises from inherent non-convexities in unit commitment problems. When this aspect is ignored, marginal prices may result in economic losses to market participants who are part of the welfare maximizing solution. In this essay, we present an axiomatic approach to efficient prices and cost allocation for a revenue neutral and non-confiscatory day-ahead market. Current cost allocation practices do not adequately attribute costs based on transparent cost causation criteria. Instead we propose an ex post multi-part pricing scheme, which we refer to as the Dual Pricing Algorithm. Lastly,more » our approach can be incorporated into current dayahead markets without altering the market equilibrium.« less

  20. Dual pricing algorithm in ISO markets

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Richard P.; Castillo, Anya; Eldridge, Brent; Hytowitz, Robin Broder

    2016-10-10

    The challenge to create efficient market clearing prices in centralized day-ahead electricity markets arises from inherent non-convexities in unit commitment problems. When this aspect is ignored, marginal prices may result in economic losses to market participants who are part of the welfare maximizing solution. In this essay, we present an axiomatic approach to efficient prices and cost allocation for a revenue neutral and non-confiscatory day-ahead market. Current cost allocation practices do not adequately attribute costs based on transparent cost causation criteria. Instead we propose an ex post multi-part pricing scheme, which we refer to as the Dual Pricing Algorithm. Lastly, our approach can be incorporated into current dayahead markets without altering the market equilibrium.

  1. Dual pricing algorithm in ISO markets

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Richard P.; Castillo, Anya; Eldridge, Brent; Hytowitz, Robin Broder

    2016-10-10

    The challenge to create efficient market clearing prices in centralized day-ahead electricity markets arises from inherent non-convexities in unit commitment problems. When this aspect is ignored, marginal prices may result in economic losses to market participants who are part of the welfare maximizing solution. In this essay, we present an axiomatic approach to efficient prices and cost allocation for a revenue neutral and non-confiscatory day-ahead market. Current cost allocation practices do not adequately attribute costs based on transparent cost causation criteria. Instead we propose an ex post multi-part pricing scheme, which we refer to as the Dual Pricing Algorithm. Lastly, our approach can be incorporated into current dayahead markets without altering the market equilibrium.

  2. The Earth's Hot Spots.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vink, Gregory E.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Hot spots are isolated areas of geologic activity where volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and upwelling currents occur far from plate boundaries. These mantle plumes are relatively stable and crustal plates drift over them. The nature and location of hot spots (with particular attention to the Hawaiian Islands and Iceland) are discussed. (DH)

  3. Jupiter Great Red Spot

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1997-09-07

    This view of Jupiter Great Red Spot is a mosaic of two images taken by NASA Galileo spacecraft. The Great Red Spot is a storm in Jupiter atmosphere and is at least 300 years-old. The image was taken on June 26, 1996. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00296

  4. Jupiter Great Red Spot

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1996-02-01

    This dramatic view of Jupiter Great Red Spot and its surroundings was obtained by NASA Voyager 1 on Feb. 25, 1979. The colorful, wavy cloud pattern to the left of the Red Spot is a region of extraordinarily complex end variable wave motion. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00014

  5. Spotted Owl: Strix occidentalis

    Treesearch

    Joseph L. Ganey

    1997-01-01

    The scientific name, Strix occidentalis, translates as "owl of the west," an appropriate name for this inhabitant of western forests. The subspecies found in Arizona, the Mexican Spotted Owl, is S. o. lucida - "light" or "bright" owl of the west. This race is generally lighter in color than Spotted...

  6. The Earth's Hot Spots.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vink, Gregory E.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Hot spots are isolated areas of geologic activity where volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and upwelling currents occur far from plate boundaries. These mantle plumes are relatively stable and crustal plates drift over them. The nature and location of hot spots (with particular attention to the Hawaiian Islands and Iceland) are discussed. (DH)

  7. Hot Spot Cosmic Accelerators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2002-11-01

    cosmic objects. Notes [1]: The new results are described in a research paper, "Particle Accelerators in the Hot Spots of Radio Galaxy 3C 445, Imaged with the VLT" by M. Almudena Prieto (ESO, Garching, Germany), Gianfranco Brunetti (Istituto de Radioastronomia del CNR, Bologna, Italy) and Karl-Heinz Mack (Istituto de Radioastronomia del CNR, Bologna, Italy; ASTRON/NFRA, Dwingeloo, The Netherlands; Radioastronomisches Institut der Universität Bonn, Germany), that recently appeared in the research journal Science (Vol. 298, pp. 193-195). [2]: When electrons - which are electrically charged - move through a magnetic field, they spiral along the lines of force. Electrons of high energy spiral very rapidly, at speeds near the speed of light. Under such conditions, the electrons emit highly polarized electromagnetic radiation. The intensity of this radiation is related to the strength of the magnetic field and the number and energy distribution of the electrons caught in this field. Many cosmic radio sources have been found to emit synchrotron radiation - one of the best examples is the famous Crab Nebula, depicted in ESO PR Photo 40f/99. ESO PR Photo 26/02 may be reproduced, if credit is given to the European Southern Observatory (ESO) and the US National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO).

  8. A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 1: Summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Mcmaster, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The utility owned solar electric system methodology is generalized and updated. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs (including a specified return on investment). Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero. While the model was designed for photovoltaic generators with a possible thermal energy byproduct, it applicability is not limited to such systems. The resulting owner-dependent methodology for energy generation system assessment consists of a few equations that can be evaluated without the aid of a high-speed computer.

  9. A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 1: Summary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; McMaster, K. M.

    1981-10-01

    The utility owned solar electric system methodology is generalized and updated. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs (including a specified return on investment). Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero. While the model was designed for photovoltaic generators with a possible thermal energy byproduct, it applicability is not limited to such systems. The resulting owner-dependent methodology for energy generation system assessment consists of a few equations that can be evaluated without the aid of a high-speed computer.

  10. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-27

    some positive constant M . For the proof of the global existence of y2, we define a non-negative Lyapunov function V2(t, y2) = ∫ y2 0 (u2+1) γ 2η2 du...We consider an Energy/ Lyapunov function Vi(t, yi) = 1 yi(t) , for i = 1, 2, yi(t) 6= 0, (4.43) 37 Hence, applying Itô’s formula to (4.43), we have...t−t0) ]−1 , (4.61) where M is defined in (4.37), where f0 = 1√E[y22(t)] |t=t0 . Proof. Using the fact that y2 > 0, define the Lyapunov function v

  11. Watermarking spot colors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alattar, Osama M.; Reed, Alastair M.

    2003-06-01

    Watermarking of printed materials has usually focused on process inks of cyan, magenta, yellow and black (CMYK). In packaging, almost three out of four printed materials include spot colors. Spot colors are special premixed inks, which can be produced in a vibrant range of colors, often outside the CMYK color gamut. In embedding a watermark into printed material, a common approach is to modify the luminance value of each pixel in the image. In the case of process color work pieces, the luminance change can be scaled to the C, M, Y and K channels using a weighting function, to produce the desired change in luminance. In the case of spot color art designs, there is only one channel available and the luminance change is applied to this channel. In this paper we develop a weighting function to embed the watermark signal across the range of different spot colors. This weighting function normalizes visibility effect and signal robustness across a wide range of different spot colors. It normalizes the signal robustness level over the range of an individual spot color"s intensity levels. Further, it takes into account the sensitivity of the capturing device to the different spot colors.

  12. Adaptive Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Electricity Markets Participation.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M; Sousa, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Praca, Isabel; Faia, Ricardo; Pires, Eduardo Jose Solteiro

    2016-08-01

    The increase of distributed energy resources, mainly based on renewable sources, requires new solutions that are able to deal with this type of resources' particular characteristics (namely, the renewable energy sources intermittent nature). The smart grid concept is increasing its consensus as the most suitable solution to facilitate the small players' participation in electric power negotiations while improving energy efficiency. The opportunity for players' participation in multiple energy negotiation environments (smart grid negotiation in addition to the already implemented market types, such as day-ahead spot markets, balancing markets, intraday negotiations, bilateral contracts, forward and futures negotiations, and among other) requires players to take suitable decisions on whether to, and how to participate in each market type. This paper proposes a portfolio optimization methodology, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities. The amount of power that each supported player should negotiate in each available market type in order to maximize its profits, considers the prices that are expected to be achieved in each market, in different contexts. The price forecasts are performed using artificial neural networks, providing a specific database with the expected prices in the different market types, at each time. This database is then used as input by an evolutionary particle swarm optimization process, which originates the most advantage participation portfolio for the market player. The proposed approach is tested and validated with simulations performed in multiagent simulator of competitive electricity markets, using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator-MIBEL.

  13. ESA uncovers Geminga's `hot spot'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-07-01

    16 July 2004 Astronomers using ESA’s X-ray observatory XMM-Newton have detected a small, bright ‘hot spot’ on the surface of the neutron star called Geminga, 500 light-years away. The hot spot is the size of a football field and is caused by the same mechanism producing Geminga’s X-ray tails. This discovery identifies the missing link between the X-ray and gamma-ray emission from Geminga. hi-res Size hi-res: 1284 kb Credits: ESA, P. Caraveo (IASF, Milan) Geminga's hot spot This figure shows the effects of charged particles accelerated in the magnetosphere of Geminga. Panel (a) shows an image taken with the EPIC instrument on board the XMM-Newton observatory. The bright tails, made of particles kicked out by Geminga’s strong magnetic field, trail the neutron star as it moves about in space. Panel (b) shows how electrically charged particles interact with Geminga’s magnetic field. For example, if electrons (blue) are kicked out by the star, positrons (in red) hit the star’s magnetic poles like in an ‘own goal’. Panel (c) illustrates the size of Geminga’s magnetic field (blue) compared to that of the star itself at the centre (purple). The magnetic field is tilted with respect to Geminga’s rotation axis (red). Panel (d) shows the magnetic poles of Geminga, where charged particles hit the surface of the star, creating a two-million degrees hot spot, a region much hotter than the surroundings. As the star spins on its rotation axis, the hot spot comes into view and then disappears, causing the periodic colour change seen by XMM-Newton. An animated version of the entire sequence can be found at: Click here for animated GIF [low resolution, animated GIF, 5536 KB] Click here for AVI [high resolution, AVI with DIVX compression, 19128 KB] hi-res Size hi-res: 371 kb Credits: ESA, P. Caraveo (IASF, Milan) Geminga's hot spot, panel (a) Panel (a) shows an image taken with the EPIC instrument on board the XMM-Newton observatory. The bright tails, made of

  14. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1987

    Treesearch

    John S. Vissage

    1990-01-01

    In 1987, the average price per cord of Midsouth pulpwood was $47.47, an increase of less than 1 percent from the 1988 price. The average price per green ton of chipped residues decreased less than 1 percent to $2164. The average price of other residues remained at $10.25 per green ton. The total expenditure for pulpwood in the Midsouth increased approximately 1...

  15. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1984

    Treesearch

    Dennis M. May

    1986-01-01

    In 1984, the average price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $50.55, an increase of 4.5 percent from 1983. The average price for a green ton of chipped residues also increased, up 9.0 percent to $25.44. However, the average price for a green ton of sawdust fell 17.3 percent to $10.79. Rail delivery prices for wood fiber continue to be lower than truck delivery...

  16. The Frozen Price Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alden, Lori

    2003-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the educational frozen price game she developed to teach the basic economic principle of price allocation. In addition to demonstrating the advantages of price allocation, the game also illustrates such concepts as opportunity costs, cost benefit comparisons, and the trade-off between efficiency and equity.…

  17. Price Estimation Guidelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Aster, R. W.; Firnett, P. J.; Miller, M. A.

    1985-01-01

    Improved Price Estimation Guidelines, IPEG4, program provides comparatively simple, yet relatively accurate estimate of price of manufactured product. IPEG4 processes user supplied input data to determine estimate of price per unit of production. Input data include equipment cost, space required, labor cost, materials and supplies cost, utility expenses, and production volume on industry wide or process wide basis.

  18. Simulating Price-Taking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engelhardt, Lucas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…

  19. Simulating Price-Taking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engelhardt, Lucas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…

  20. Price Estimation Guidelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Aster, R. W.; Firnett, P. J.; Miller, M. A.

    1985-01-01

    Improved Price Estimation Guidelines, IPEG4, program provides comparatively simple, yet relatively accurate estimate of price of manufactured product. IPEG4 processes user supplied input data to determine estimate of price per unit of production. Input data include equipment cost, space required, labor cost, materials and supplies cost, utility expenses, and production volume on industry wide or process wide basis.

  1. SPOT4 Management Centre

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Labrune, Yves; Labbe, X.; Roussel, A.; Vielcanet, P.

    1994-01-01

    In the context of the CNES SPOT4 program CISI is particularly responsible for the development of the SPOT4 Management Centre, part of the SPOT4 ground control system located at CNES Toulouse (France) designed to provide simultaneous control over two satellites. The main operational activities are timed to synchronize with satellite visibilities (ten usable passes per day). The automatic capability of this system is achieved through agenda services (sequence of operations as defined and planned by operator). Therefore, the SPOT4 Management Centre offers limited, efficient and secure human interventions for supervision and decision making. This paper emphasizes the main system characteristics as degree of automation, level of dependability and system parameterization.

  2. Concerning seed spots

    Treesearch

    J. A. Larsen; R. J. Smith

    1913-01-01

    In connection with the sowing of Yellow pine, White pine and Western larch on The Blackfeet National Forest during the sea sons of 1911 and 1912, seventeen and one-half acres were sowed directly in seed spots.

  3. Mononucleosis spot test

    MedlinePlus

    Monospot test; Heterophile antibody test; Heterophile agglutination test; Paul-Bunnell test; Forssman antibody test ... The mononucleosis spot test is done when symptoms of mononucleosis are ... Fatigue Fever Large spleen (possibly) Sore throat Tender ...

  4. Lincoln's Spot Resolutions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mueller, Jean West; Schamel, Wynell Burroughs

    1988-01-01

    Examines the events leading to and immediately following the declaration of war on Mexico in 1846. Includes the second and third pages of Abraham Lincoln's "Spot Resolutions" and presents teaching suggestions for interpreting the document and assessing public opinion. (GEA)

  5. Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

  6. Bowling Ball Spotting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1985-01-01

    Exactatron, an accurate weighing and spotting system in bowling ball manufacture, was developed by Ebonite International engineers with the assistance of a NASA computer search which identified Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) technology. The JPL research concerned a means of determining the center of an object's mass, and an apparatus for measuring liquid viscosity, enabling Ebonite to identify the exact spotting of the drilling point for top weighting.

  7. Pulmonary effects of spot welding in automobile assembly.

    PubMed

    Loukzadeh, Zeeba; Sharifian, Seyed Akbar; Aminian, Omid; Shojaoddiny-Ardekani, Ahmad

    2009-06-01

    Spot welding is a type of resistance welding in which pieces of metals are pressed together and an electric current is passed through them. Spot welders are at risk of contact with some potentially hazardous agents but there are few studies about the respiratory effects of spot welding. Our objective was to study lung function and respiratory symptoms among spot welders and office workers at an automobile assembly factory in Iran. This was a cross-sectional study of 137 male spot welders and 129 office workers. We used a questionnaire to record demographic data, smoking habits, work history and respiratory symptoms. Spirometry was performed to assess lung function status. Metal fume samples from the respiratory zone of spot welders were analysed. The concentrations of metal fume were less than the American Conference of Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) threshold limit values. There were significantly lower values for average forced expiratory volume in 1st second (FEV(1)), FEV(1)/forced vital capacity and 25-75% forced expiratory flow in spot welders compared to controls. There was also a significantly raised prevalence of respiratory symptoms (sputum and dyspnoea) in spot welders. Fifteen per cent of spot welders and 1% of controls had an obstructive pattern in spirometry. Our survey suggests that spot welders are at risk of developing respiratory symptoms and decreasing pulmonary function values despite their exposure to components of welding fume being within ACGIH guidelines.

  8. Pricing European options on agriculture commodity prices using mean-reversion model with jump diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dharmawan, Komang

    2017-03-01

    It has been claimed in many literatures that the prices of some agriculture commodities tend to follow mean reversion. However, when dealing with the prices of agriculture commodities, is mean-reversion realistic enough without incorporating seasonality and jump diffusion? This research tries to answer the question. The combination between mean-reversion feature, jump and seasonal components are applied to model the behavior of agriculture commodity prices. A jump and seasonal components are added to the standard mean-reverting process in order to reproduce the spiky or jump behaviors. This model has been well applied on simulating the electricity prices but it has not been applied to investigate the behavior of agriculture commodity prices yet. This paper discusses the performance of the model when it is used to price European call options. First, the deterministic seasonality part is calibrated using the least square method. The second stage is to calibrate the stochastic part based on historical prices. The parameters are calibrated by discretizing the model. Hence, the discretized model allows us to perform Monte Carlo simulation on the commodity price under real-word probability. The analysis is conducted using 2 future price of Crude Palm Oil and Coffee Bean on standard payoff functions, a Basket, a Spread, Best of Call, and Worst of Call Options.

  9. Calculating proper transfer prices

    SciTech Connect

    Dorkey, F.C. ); Jarrell, G.A. )

    1991-01-01

    This article deals with developing a proper transfer pricing method. Decentralization is as American as baseball. While managers laud the widespread benefits of both decentralization and baseball, they often greet the term transfer price policy with a yawn. Since transfer prices are as critical to the success of decentralized firms as good pitchers are to baseball teams, this is quite a mistake on the part of our managers. A transfer price is the price charged to one division for a product or service that another division produced or provided. In many, perhaps most, decentralized organizations, the transfer pricing policies actually used are grossly inefficient and sacrifice the potential advantages of decentralization. Experience shows that far too many companies have transfer pricing policies that cost them significantly in foregone growth and profits.

  10. Open Automated Demand Response Dynamic Pricing Technologies and Demonstration

    SciTech Connect

    Ghatikar, Girish; Mathieu, Johanna L.; Piette, Mary Ann; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan

    2010-08-02

    This study examines the use of OpenADR communications specification, related data models, technologies, and strategies to send dynamic prices (e.g., real time prices and peak prices) and Time of Use (TOU) rates to commercial and industrial electricity customers. OpenADR v1.0 is a Web services-based flexible, open information model that has been used in California utilities' commercial automated demand response programs since 2007. We find that data models can be used to send real time prices. These same data models can also be used to support peak pricing and TOU rates. We present a data model that can accommodate all three types of rates. For demonstration purposes, the data models were generated from California Independent System Operator's real-time wholesale market prices, and a California utility's dynamic prices and TOU rates. Customers can respond to dynamic prices by either using the actual prices, or prices can be mapped into"operation modes," which can act as inputs to control systems. We present several different methods for mapping actual prices. Some of these methods were implemented in demonstration projects. The study results demonstrate show that OpenADR allows interoperability with existing/future systems/technologies and can be used within related dynamic pricing activities within Smart Grid.

  11. Still from Red Spot Movie

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    This image is one of seven from the narrow-angle camera on NASA's Cassini spacecraft assembled as a brief movie of cloud movements on Jupiter. It was taken with a blue filter. The smallest features visible are about 500 kilometers (about 300 miles) across.

    Small bright clouds appear suddenly to the west of the Great Red Spot. Based on data from NASA's Galileo spacecraft, scientists suspect that these small white features are lightning storms, where falling raindrops create an electrical charge. The lightning storms eventually merge with the Red Spot and surrounding jets, and may be the main energy source for these large-scale features. Imaging observations of the darkside of the planet in the weeks following Cassini's closest approach to Jupiter on Dec. 30, 2000 will search for lightning storms like these.

    This image was re-projected by cylindrical-map projection of an image taken in the first week of October 2000. It shows an area from 50 degrees north of Jupiter's equator to 50 degrees south, extending 100 degrees east west, about one quarter of Jupiter's circumference.

    Cassini is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Cassini mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C.

  12. Still from Red Spot Movie

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    This image is one of seven from the narrow-angle camera on NASA's Cassini spacecraft assembled as a brief movie of cloud movements on Jupiter. It was taken with a blue filter. The smallest features visible are about 500 kilometers (about 300 miles) across.

    Small bright clouds appear suddenly to the west of the Great Red Spot. Based on data from NASA's Galileo spacecraft, scientists suspect that these small white features are lightning storms, where falling raindrops create an electrical charge. The lightning storms eventually merge with the Red Spot and surrounding jets, and may be the main energy source for these large-scale features. Imaging observations of the darkside of the planet in the weeks following Cassini's closest approach to Jupiter on Dec. 30, 2000 will search for lightning storms like these.

    This image was re-projected by cylindrical-map projection of an image taken in the first week of October 2000. It shows an area from 50 degrees north of Jupiter's equator to 50 degrees south, extending 100 degrees east west, about one quarter of Jupiter's circumference.

    Cassini is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Cassini mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C.

  13. State energy price system. Volume I: overview and technical documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Fang, J.M.; Nieves, L.A.; Sherman, K.L.; Hood, L.J.

    1982-06-01

    This study utilizes existing data sources and previous analyses of state-level energy prices to develop consistent state-level energy prices series by fuel type and by end-use sector. The fuels are electricity, natural gas, coal, distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, diesel, kerosene, jet fuel, residual fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas. The end-use sectors are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Based upon an evaluation of existing data sources, recommendations were formulated on the feasible approaches for developing a consistent state energy price series. The data series were compiled based upon the approaches approved after a formal EIA review. Detailed documentation was provided, including annual updating procedures. Recommendations were formulated for future improvements in the collection of data or in data processing. Generally, the geographical coverage includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Information on state-level energy use was generally taken from the State Energy Data System (SEDS). Corresponding average US prices are also developed using volumes reported in SEDS. To the extent possible, the prices developed are quantity weighted average retail prices. Both a Btu price series and a physical unit price series are developed for each fuel. The period covered by the data series is 1970 through 1980 for most fuels, though prices for electricity and natural gas extend back to 1960. (PSB)

  14. Association Between Energy Prices and US Hospital Patient Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Brown, Lawrence H; Chaiechi, Taha; Buettner, Petra G; Canyon, Deon V

    2017-04-01

    To evaluate associations between changing energy prices and US hospital patient outcomes. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze relationships between changes in energy prices and subsequent changes in hospital patient outcomes measures for the years 2008 through 2014. Patient outcomes measures included 30-day acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia mortality rates, and 30-day acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia readmission rates. Energy price data included state average distillate fuel, electricity and natural gas prices, and the US average coal price. All of the price data were converted to 2014 dollars using Consumer Price Index multipliers. There was a significant positive association between changes in coal price and both short-term (P = 0.029) and long-term (P = 0.017) changes in the 30-day heart failure mortality rate. There was a similar significant positive association between changes in coal price and both short-term (P <0.001) and long-term (P = 0.002) changes in the 30-day pneumonia mortality rate. Changes in coal prices also were positively associated with long-term changes in the 30-day myocardial infarction readmission rate (P < 0.001). Changes in coal prices (P = 0.20), natural gas prices (P = 0.040), and electricity prices (P = 0.040) were positively associated with long-term changes in the 30-day heart failure readmission rate. Changing energy prices are associated with subsequent changes in hospital mortality and readmission measures. In light of these data, we encourage hospital, health system, and health policy leaders to pursue patient-support initiatives, energy conservation programs, and reimbursement policy strategies aimed at mitigating those effects.

  15. 7 CFR 1726.204 - Multiparty unit price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ELECTRIC SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION POLICIES AND PROCEDURES Procurement Procedures § 1726.204 Multiparty unit price quotations. The borrower or its engineer must contact a sufficient number of...

  16. Distributional implications of reducing interstate energy price differences

    SciTech Connect

    Schmidt, R.H.; Gunther, J.W.

    1986-11-01

    A model of state residential energy consumption for electricity, natural gas, and petroleum examines scenarios which reflect the response to a reduction in regional price differences attributable to deregulation. The results indicate that natural gas deregulation will benefit eastern and northwestern consumers at the expense of middle and western consumers. The deregulation of bulk electric power also benefits the east coast, but rising electricity prices would outweigh any benefits for the northwest. In contrast, electricity producers in the west have the most to gain from deregulation of bulk power transmissions because of the opportunities of a national market. A deregulated environment will likely have less dramatic distributional consequences from future energy price shocks, while increased fuel competition will probably limit price movements in any one fuel. 3 figures, 5 tables.

  17. Modified Spot Welder Solders Flat Cables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haehner, Carl L.

    1992-01-01

    Soldering device, essentially modified spot welder, melts high-melting-temperature solders without damaging plastic insulation on flat electrical cables. Solder preform rests on exposed conductor of cable, under connector pin. Electrodes press pin/preform/conductor sandwich together and supply pulse of current to melt preform, bonding pin to conductor. Anvil acts as support and heat sink. Device used to solder flexible ribbon cables to subminiature pin connectors.

  18. Spot Weld Test Pull

    SciTech Connect

    Stepanek, G.; /Fermilab

    1985-12-07

    Thd D-zero cryostats will contain a number of detector modules. Each module will be made up of plates separated by G-10. To hold the plates together a stainless steel skin has been proposed to cover a whole module. By a series of calculations it was noted that the thin skins would buckle under the force. To prevent the buckling it was proposed to spot weld the skins to some of the internal plates, therefore giving the skins greatly increased strength. This paper gives the results of the test on the proposed spot welds.

  19. IR Spot Weld Inspect

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Jian; Feng, Zhili

    2014-01-01

    In automotive industry, destructive inspection of spot welds is still the mandatory quality assurance method due to the lack of efficient non-destructive evaluation (NDE) tools. However, it is costly and time-consuming. Recently at ORNL, a new NDE prototype system for spot weld inspection using infrared (IR) thermography has been developed to address this problem. This software contains all the key functions that ensure the NDE system to work properly: system input/output control, image acquisition, data analysis, weld quality database generation and weld quality prediction, etc.

  20. STS pricing policy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, C. M.; Stone, B.

    1982-01-01

    In 1977 NASA published Shuttle Reimbursement Policies for Civil U.S. Government, DOD and Commercial and Foreign Users. These policies were based on the principle of total cost recovery over a period of time with a fixed flat price for initial period to time to enhance transition. This fixed period was to be followed with annual adjustments thereafter, NASA is establishing a new price for 1986 and beyond. In order to recover costs, that price must be higher than the initial fixed price through FY 1985. NASA intends to remain competitive. Competitive posture includes not only price, but other factors such as assured launch, reliability, and unique services. NASA's pricing policy considers all these factors.

  1. STS pricing policy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, C. M.; Stone, B.

    1982-01-01

    In 1977 NASA published Shuttle Reimbursement Policies for Civil U.S. Government, DOD and Commercial and Foreign Users. These policies were based on the principle of total cost recovery over a period of time with a fixed flat price for initial period to time to enhance transition. This fixed period was to be followed with annual adjustments thereafter, NASA is establishing a new price for 1986 and beyond. In order to recover costs, that price must be higher than the initial fixed price through FY 1985. NASA intends to remain competitive. Competitive posture includes not only price, but other factors such as assured launch, reliability, and unique services. NASA's pricing policy considers all these factors.

  2. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1992

    Treesearch

    Patrick E. Miller

    1994-01-01

    The average price in the Midsouth for a cord of roundwood pulpwood increased 5.1 percent from $56.39 in 1991 to $59.29 in 1992. The average delivered price for a green ton of chipped residues was $27.30, an increase of 6.1 percent. In 1992, expenditures for Midsouth pulpwood increased 14.0 percent to $2.2 million. Real prices continued to rise for both softwood and...

  3. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1990

    Treesearch

    Patrick E. Miller

    1992-01-01

    In 1990, the average delivered price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $52.95, an increase of 5.7 percent since 1989. The average delivered price for a green ton of chipped residues increased about 3.7 percent to $22.51. The total pulpwood expenditure for Midsouth pulpmills increased 13 percent to $1,883 million in 1990. In terms of 1981 dollars, real prices fell...

  4. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1988

    Treesearch

    John S. Vissage

    1990-01-01

    In 1988, the average price per cord of Midsouth roundwood pulpwood was $49.21, an increase of approximately 4 percent since 1987. The average price per green ton of chipped residues fell 3 percent to $20.99. The total expenditure by Midsouth pulpmills for pulpwood increased about one-half percent to $1,569 million in 1988. However, the real prices, in terms of...

  5. Estimating Prices of Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aster, R. W.; Chamberlain, R. G.; Zendejas, S. C.; Lee, T. S.; Malhotra, S.

    1986-01-01

    Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

  6. Food price volatility

    PubMed Central

    Gilbert, C. L.; Morgan, C. W.

    2010-01-01

    The high food prices experienced over recent years have led to the widespread view that food price volatility has increased. However, volatility has generally been lower over the two most recent decades than previously. Variability over the most recent period has been high but, with the important exception of rice, not out of line with historical experience. There is weak evidence that grains price volatility more generally may be increasing but it is too early to say. PMID:20713400

  7. Estimating Prices of Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aster, R. W.; Chamberlain, R. G.; Zendejas, S. C.; Lee, T. S.; Malhotra, S.

    1986-01-01

    Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

  8. Soaring prices, soaring sales.

    PubMed

    Grinberg, L

    1998-12-01

    DuPont Pharmaceuticals and Glaxo Wellcome began marketing two new drugs, and the pricing of the drugs started a controversy. DuPont's efavirenz (Sustiva) was priced 60 percent higher than any other nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), with an annual retail price close to $5,000. In response, an ad hoc coalition called the Fair Price Working Group circulated a consensus statement demanding that the drug be priced like other drugs in that category. DuPont refused to reconsider, citing potency, once-daily dosing, and development costs. Several of the largest AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAPs) also refused to add efavirenz to their formularies even though Dupont offered ADAPs a 5 percent rebate on the drug. Glaxo Wellcome learned from this dispute and priced its nucleoside analog abacavir at a level that ADAPs could afford, even though it is at the high end for its class of drugs. The coalition commended Glaxo for fairness in its pricing decision. Agouron and Bristol-Myers Squibb have also been criticized for repeatedly raising prices on their drugs. A continuing dialog, prior to price setting, will lead to greater understanding of a company's costs and may improve a company's reputation.

  9. Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes: 1981 Update.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Research Associates of Washington, DC.

    Higher Education prices and price indexes for fiscal years 1979-1981 are presented, with narrative explanation. A price index series measures the effects of price change on a fixed group of items. The change in price index values from year to year may be interpreted as the change in dollars required to offset the effects of inflation in buying the…

  10. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Jennan

    2017-01-01

    The tick-borne disease Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) can have deadly outcomes unless treated appropriately, yet nonspecific flu-like symptoms complicate diagnosis. Occupational health nurses must have a high index of suspicion with symptomatic workers and recognize that recent recreational or occupational activities with potential tick exposure may suggest RMSF.

  11. White-Spotted Sawyer

    Treesearch

    Louis F. Wilson

    1962-01-01

    The white-spotted sawyer (Monochamus scutellatus (Say)) is an important wood-boring insect in North America. Its range, encompasses an area from Newfoundland southward to North Carolina, westward from the Atlantic coast through the North Central States to Minnesota, and northwestward into Alaska, wherever its coniferous host, are found.

  12. Bacterial leaf spot

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Bacterial leaf spot has been reported in Australia (Queensland), Egypt, El Salvador, India, Japan, Nicaragua, Sudan, and the United States (Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, and Wisconsin). It occasionally causes locally severe defoliation and post-emergence damping-off and stunting. The disease is...

  13. Rolling Spot Welder

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagner, Garret E.; Fonteyne, Steve L.

    1990-01-01

    Wheeled tool speeds tack-welding operations. Spotwelds foil to parts in preparation for brazing. Includes electrode wheel rolling across foil. Welding current in electrode pulsed as electrode moves along, making series of uniformly-spaced low-current spot welds.

  14. Cucumber leaf spot virus

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Cucumber leaf spot virus (CLSV) was originally identified from cucumber (Cucumis sativus) in Germany, but has since been found in various parts of Europe, the UK, and the Middle East, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bulgaria, Poland, and Spain. CLSV is known to cause symptoms ranging from chloroti...

  15. Rolling Spot Welder

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagner, Garret E.; Fonteyne, Steve L.

    1990-01-01

    Wheeled tool speeds tack-welding operations. Spotwelds foil to parts in preparation for brazing. Includes electrode wheel rolling across foil. Welding current in electrode pulsed as electrode moves along, making series of uniformly-spaced low-current spot welds.

  16. Spot simulation applications handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1985-01-01

    This book describes an earth-orbiting remote sensing satellite called SPOT which offers digital data of 10 m resolution, bridging the gap between Landsat TM data and high-altitude aerial photogrpahy. It is one of the first civilian satellites to use electro-optical sensors based on CCD line array technology.

  17. Arc spot grouping: An entanglement of arc spot cells

    SciTech Connect

    Kajita, Shin; Hwangbo, Dogyun; Ohno, Noriyasu; Tsventoukh, Mikhail M.; Barengolts, Sergey A.

    2014-12-21

    In recent experiments, clear transitions in velocity and trail width of an arc spot initiated on nanostructured tungsten were observed on the boundary of the thick and thin nanostructured layer regions. The velocity of arc spot was significantly decreased on the thick nanostructured region. It was suggested that the grouping decreased the velocity of arc spot. In this study, we try to explain the phenomena using a simple random walk model that has properties of directionality and self-avoidance. And grouping feature was added by installing an attractive force between spot cells with dealing with multi-spots. It was revealed that an entanglement of arc spot cells decreased the spot velocity, and spot cells tend to stamp at the same location many times.

  18. TV spots' impact.

    PubMed

    El-bakly, S

    1994-09-01

    The Information, Education and Communication (IEC) Center of the State Information Service was established in 1979 for the purpose of providing information to the people on the population issue. The Ministry of Information has accorded the State Information Service free TV and radio air time for family planning dramas and spots. In the early years information campaigns were organized to make people aware of the population problem by slogans, songs, and cartoons. Around 1984 misconceptions about family planning and contraceptives were attacked through a number of TV and radio spots. A few years later 21 spots on specific contraceptive methods were broadcast which were aired for three years over 3000 times. They were extremely successful. The impact of these TV spots was one of the major reasons why the contraceptive prevalence rate increased from 30% in 1984 to 38% in 1988 and 47% in 1992. Spots were also broadcast about the social implications of large families. The TV soap opera "And The Nile Flows On", with the family planning message interwoven into it, was very well received by the target audience. A program entitled "Wedding of the Month" features couples who know family planning well. The most successful radio program is a 15-20 minute long quiz show for residents of the villages where the Select Villages Project is being implemented. The State Information Service has 60 local information centers in the 26 governorates of Egypt that make plans for the family planning campaign. In 1992 the Minya Initiative, a family planning project was implemented in the Minya Governorate. As a result, the contraceptive prevalence rate rose from 22% to 30% over 18 months. A new project, the Select Village Project, was developed in 1993 that replicates the Minya Initiative on the village level in other governorates. This new project that was implemented in sixteen governorates.

  19. Price Discrimination in Academic Journals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joyce, Patrick; Merz, Thomas E.

    1985-01-01

    Analysis of price discrimination (charging different prices to different customers for same product) for 89 academic journals in 6 disciplines reveals: incidence of price discrimination rose between 1974 and 1984, increase in mean institutional (library) subscription price exceeded increase in mean individual subscription price. Journal list…

  20. State energy price and expenditure report, 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-10-28

    The average price paid for energy in the United States in 1986 was $7.19 per million Btu, down significantly from the 1985 average of $8.42 per million Btu. While total energy consumption increased slightly to 74.3 quadrillion Btu from 1985 to 1986, expenditures fell from $445 billion to $381 billion. Energy expenditures per capita in 1986 were $1578, down significantly from the 1985 rate. In 1986, consumers used only 94 percent as much energy per person as they had in 1970, but they spent 3.9 times as much money per person on energy as they had in 1970. By state, energy expenditures per capita in 1986 ranged from the lowest rate of $1277 in New York to the highest of $3108 in Alaska. Of the major energy sources, electricity registered the highest price per million Btu ($19.00), followed by petroleum ($5.63), natural gas ($3.97), coal ($1.62), and nuclear fuel ($0.70). The price of electricity is relatively high because of significant costs for converting energy from various forms (e.g., fossil fuels, nuclear fuel, hydroelectric energy, and geothermal energy) into electricity, and additional, somewhat smaller costs for transmitting and distributing electricity to end users. In addition, electricity is a premium form of energy because of its flexibility and clean nature at energy consumers' sites.

  1. State energy price and expenditure report 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-09-30

    The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates for the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and the United States. The estimates are provided by energy source (e.g., petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity) and by major consuming or economic sector. This report is an update of the State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1988 published in September 1990. Changes from the last report are summarized in a section of the documentation. Energy price and expenditure estimates are published for the years 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 through 1989. Documentation follows the tables and describes how the price estimates are developed, including sources of data, methods of estimation, and conversion factors applied. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures, and the documentation for those estimates, are from the State Energy Data Report, Consumption Estimates, 1960--1989 (SEDR), published in May 1991. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimates by the consumption estimates, adjusted to remove process fuel and intermediate product consumption. All expenditures are consumer expenditures, that is, they represent estimates of money directly spent by consumers to purchase energy, generally including taxes. 11 figs., 43 tabs.

  2. Trends in Utility Green Pricing Programs (2006)

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, L.; Kaiser, M.

    2007-10-01

    In the early 1990s, only a handful of utilities offered their customers a choice of purchasing electricity generated from renewable energy sources. Today, more than 750 utilities--or about 25% of all utilities nationally--provide their customers a "green power" option. Through these programs, more than 70 million customers have the ability to purchase renewable energy to meet some portion or all of their electricity needs--or make contributions to support the development of renewable energy resources. Typically, customers pay a premium above standard electricity rates for this service. This report presents year-end 2006 data on utility green pricing programs, and examines trends in consumer response and program implementation over time. The data in this report, which were obtained via a questionnaire distributed to utility green pricing program managers, can be used by utilities to benchmark the success of their green power programs.

  3. Trends in Utility Green Pricing Programs (2006)

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, Lori; Kaiser, Marshall

    2007-10-01

    In the early 1990s, only a handful of utilities offered their customers a choice of purchasing electricity generated from renewable energy sources. Today, more than 750 utilities—or about 25% of all utilities nationally—provide their customers a “green power” option. Through these programs, more than 70 million customers have the ability to purchase renewable energy to meet some portion or all of their electricity needs—or make contributions to support the development of renewable energy resources. Typically, customers pay a premium above standard electricity rates for this service. This report presents year-end 2006 data on utility green pricing programs, and examines trends in consumer response and program implementation over time. The data in this report, which were obtained via a questionnaire distributed to utility green pricing program managers, can be used by utilities to benchmark the success of their green power programs.

  4. Renewable Energy Price-Stability Benefits in Utility Green Power Programs

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, L. A.; Cory, K. S.; Swezey, B. G.

    2008-08-01

    This paper examines utility experiences when offering the fixed-price benefits of renewable energy in green pricing programs, including the methods utilized and the impact on program participation. It focuses primarily on utility green pricing programs in states that have not undergone electric industry restructuring.

  5. Renewable Energy Price-Stability Benefits in Utility Green Power Programs. 36 pp

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, Lori A.; Cory, Karlynn S.; Swezey, Blair G.

    2008-08-01

    This paper examines utility experiences when offering the fixed-price benefits of renewable energy in green pricing programs, including the methods utilized and the impact on program participation. It focuses primarily on utility green pricing programs in states that have not undergone electric industry restructuring.

  6. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  7. Analyzing reliability of virtual machine instances with dynamic pricing in the public cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Lim, Seung-Hwan; Thakur, Gautam; Horey, James L

    2014-01-01

    This study presents reliability analysis of virtual machine instances in public cloud environments in the face of dynamic pricing. Different from traditional fixed pricing, dynamic pricing allows price to dynamically fluctuate over arbitrary period of time according to external factors such as supply and demand, excess capacity, etc. This pricing option introduces a new type of fault: virtual machine instances may be unexpectedly terminated due to conflicts in the original bid price and the current offered price. This new class of fault under dynamic pricing may be more dominant than traditional faults in cloud computing environments, where resource availability associated with traditional faults is often above 99.9%. To address and understand this new type of fault, we translated two classic reliability metrics, mean time between failures and availability, to the Amazon Web Services spot market using historical price data. We also validated our findings by submitting actual bids in the spot market. We found that overall, our historical analysis and experimental validation lined up well. Based upon these experimental results, we also provided suggestions and techniques to maximize overall reliability of virtual machine instances under dynamic pricing.

  8. Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable togas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2004-07-17

    Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuel price risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then--contrary to common practice--any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000-2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation.

  9. Hardwood price reporting.

    Treesearch

    Brent L. Sohngen; Richard W. Haynes

    1994-01-01

    Prices for red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) hardwood logs are published and analyzed for reliability, consistency, and robustness. Timberland managers can use these prices to make decisions about land management. They show that values for red alder logs have been increasing steadily for the last 11 years.

  10. Perspectives on Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Litten, Larry H.

    1986-01-01

    The most provocative perspectives on pricing for colleges and universities have come from the introduction of marketing into higher education. A brief review of these developments is offered to serve as an orientation for the consideration of pricing issues per se. (Author/MLW)

  11. Energy Prices, Tariffs, Taxes and Subsidies in Ukraine

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, Meredydd

    2007-04-01

    For many years, electricity, gas and district heating tariffs for residential consumers were very low in Ukraine; until recently, they were even lower than in neighbouring countries such as Russia. The increases in gas and electricity tariffs, implemented in 2006, are an important step toward sustainable pricing levels; however, electricity and natural gas (especially for households) are still priced below the long-run marginal cost. The problem seems even more serious in district heating and nuclear power. According to the Ministry of Construction, district heating tariffs, on average, cover about 80% of costs. Current electricity prices do not fully include the capital costs of power stations, which are particularly high for nuclear power. Although the tariff for nuclear electricity generation includes a small decommissioning charge, it has not been sufficient to accumulate necessary funds for nuclear plants decommissioning.

  12. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  13. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  14. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  15. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  16. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  17. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  18. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  19. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  20. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  1. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  2. Poisson Spot with Magnetic Levitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoover, Matthew; Everhart, Michael; D'Arruda, Jose

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we describe a unique method for obtaining the famous Poisson spot without adding obstacles to the light path, which could interfere with the effect. A Poisson spot is the interference effect from parallel rays of light diffracting around a solid spherical object, creating a bright spot in the center of the shadow.

  3. Poisson Spot with Magnetic Levitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoover, Matthew; Everhart, Michael; D'Arruda, Jose

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we describe a unique method for obtaining the famous Poisson spot without adding obstacles to the light path, which could interfere with the effect. A Poisson spot is the interference effect from parallel rays of light diffracting around a solid spherical object, creating a bright spot in the center of the shadow.

  4. Open Automated Demand Response Technologies for Dynamic Pricing and Smart Grid

    SciTech Connect

    Ghatikar, Girish; Mathieu, Johanna L.; Piette, Mary Ann; Kiliccote, Sila

    2010-06-02

    We present an Open Automated Demand Response Communications Specifications (OpenADR) data model capable of communicating real-time prices to electricity customers. We also show how the same data model could be used to for other types of dynamic pricing tariffs (including peak pricing tariffs, which are common throughout the United States). Customers participating in automated demand response programs with building control systems can respond to dynamic prices by using the actual prices as inputs to their control systems. Alternatively, prices can be mapped into"building operation modes," which can act as inputs to control systems. We present several different strategies customers could use to map prices to operation modes. Our results show that OpenADR can be used to communicate dynamic pricing within the Smart Grid and that OpenADR allows for interoperability with existing and future systems, technologies, and electricity markets.

  5. Storing syngas lowers the carbon price for profitable coal gasification.

    PubMed

    Newcomer, Adam; Apt, Jay

    2007-12-01

    Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) electric power generation systems with carbon capture and sequestration have desirable environmental qualities but are not profitable when the carbon dioxide price is less than approximately $50 per metric ton. We examine whether an IGCC facility that operates its gasifier continuously butstores the syngas and produces electricity only when daily prices are high may be profitable at significantly lower CO2 prices. Using a probabilistic analysis, we have calculated the plant-level return on investment (ROI) and the value of syngas storage for IGCC facilities located in the U.S. Midwest using a range of storage configurations. Adding a second turbine to use the stored syngas to generate electricity at peak hours and implementing 12 h of above-ground high-pressure syngas storage significantly increases the ROI and net present value. Storage lowers the carbon price at which IGCC enters the U.S. generation mix by approximately 25%.

  6. Great Red Spot (GRS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murdin, P.

    2000-11-01

    A huge permanent anticyclone in Jupiter's southern hemisphere, visible as a reddish oval at just over 20 °S. The earliest unequivocal observation was by Heinrich Schwabe in 1831 (the often-quoted sighting by Robert Hooke in 1664 now seems to have been of a similar but different spot). The GRS became a striking feature around 1880, when it developed a deep red coloration. It was also prominent in ...

  7. Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

    PubMed

    Lacz, N L; Schwartz, R A; Kapila, R

    2006-04-01

    Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an unusual but important dermatological condition to identify without hesitation. The classic triad of headache, fever, and a rash that begins on the extremities and travels proximally to involve the trunk is found in a majority of patients. The cutaneous centripetal pattern is a result of cell to cell migration by the causative organism Rickettsia rickettsii. Such individuals should receive prompt antimicrobial therapy and supportive care to avoid serious and potentially fatal complications.

  8. Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

    PubMed

    Kamper, C A; Chessman, K H; Phelps, S J

    1988-02-01

    The epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical features, and treatment of Rocky Mountain spotted fever are reviewed. Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a severe infection caused by Rickettsia rickettsii transmitted to man by various species of ticks. High-incidence areas exist in the southeast and south central United States. Only 60-70% of patients with the disease report a history of tick bite or exposure to tick-infested areas. The disease is initially characterized by fever, headache, gastrointestinal complaints, myalgia, and a generalized rash. In several days generalized vasculitis may lead to periorbital edema and nonpitting edema of the face and extremities. Central nervous system involvement is common. Because signs and symptoms associated with the disease are nonspecific, the diagnosis is often delayed or missed. Traditionally diagnostic confirmation relied on serologic testing, but an indirect fluorescent antibody assay will soon be commercially available. Rocky Mountain spotted fever is usually treated with the rickettsiostatic agents chloramphenicol or tetracycline, but few comparative data on these agents in patients with the disease are available. For patients who cannot tolerate oral medications, intravenous chloramphenicol sodium succinate is the preferred treatment; chloramphenicol is also the drug of choice for children less than eight years of age. Otherwise, oral tetracycline hydrochloride is the drug of choice. Antibiotic therapy should be continued for 7-10 days or until the patient is afebrile for two to five days. All cases of Rocky Mountain spotted fever must be reported to the Centers for Disease Control. The best ways to decrease the morbidity and mortality of the disease are to increase awareness of its signs and symptoms and to prevent exposure to ticks.

  9. Pricing of new vaccines

    PubMed Central

    McGlone, Sarah M

    2010-01-01

    New vaccine pricing is a complicated process that could have substantial long-standing scientific, medical and public health ramifications. Pricing can have a considerable impact on new vaccine adoption and, thereby, either culminate or thwart years of research and development and public health efforts. Typically, pricing strategy consists of the following eleven components: (1) Conduct a target population analysis; (2) Map potential competitors and alternatives; (3) Construct a vaccine target product profile (TPP) and compare it to projected or actual TPPs of competing vaccines; (4) Quantify the incremental value of the new vaccine's characteristics; (5) Determine vaccine positioning in the marketplace; (6) Estimate the vaccine price-demand curve; (7) Calculate vaccine costs (including those of manufacturing, distribution, and research and development); (8) Account for various legal, regulatory, third party payer and competitor factors; (9) Consider the overall product portfolio; (10) Set pricing objectives; (11) Select pricing and pricing structure. While the biomedical literature contains some studies that have addressed these components, there is still considerable room for more extensive evaluation of this important area. PMID:20861678

  10. Pricing of new vaccines.

    PubMed

    Lee, Bruce Y; McGlone, Sarah M

    2010-08-01

    New vaccine pricing is a complicated process that could have substantial long-standing scientific, medical, and public health ramifications. Pricing can have a considerable impact on new vaccine adoption and, thereby, either culminate or thwart years of research and development and public health efforts. Typically, pricing strategy consists of the following ten components: 1. Conduct a target population analysis; 2. Map potential competitors and alternatives; 3. Construct a vaccine target product profile (TPP) and compare it to projected or actual TPPs of competing vaccines; 4. Quantify the incremental value of the new vaccine's characteristics; 5. Determine vaccine positioning in the marketplace; 6. Estimate the vaccine price-demand curve; 7. Calculate vaccine costs (including those of manufacturing, distribution, and research and development); 8. Account for various legal, regulatory, third party payer, and competitor factors; 9. Consider the overall product portfolio; 10. Set pricing objectives; 11. Select pricing and pricing structure. While the biomedical literature contains some studies that have addressed these components, there is still considerable room for more extensive evaluation of this important area.

  11. Models of supply function equilibrium with applications to the electricity industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aromi, J. Daniel

    Electricity market design requires tools that result in a better understanding of incentives of generators and consumers. Chapter 1 and 2 provide tools and applications of these tools to analyze incentive problems in electricity markets. In chapter 1, models of supply function equilibrium (SFE) with asymmetric bidders are studied. I prove the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in an asymmetric SFE model. In addition, I propose a simple algorithm to calculate numerically the unique equilibrium. As an application, a model of investment decisions is considered that uses the asymmetric SFE as an input. In this model, firms can invest in different technologies, each characterized by distinct variable and fixed costs. In chapter 2, option contracts are introduced to a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. The uniqueness of the equilibrium in the spot market is established. Comparative statics results on the effect of option contracts on the equilibrium price are presented. A multi-stage game where option contracts are traded before the spot market stage is considered. When contracts are optimally procured by a central authority, the selected profile of option contracts is such that the spot market price equals marginal cost for any load level resulting in a significant reduction in cost. If load serving entities (LSEs) are price takers, in equilibrium, there is no trade of option contracts. Even when LSEs have market power, the central authority's solution cannot be implemented in equilibrium. In chapter 3, we consider a game in which a buyer must repeatedly procure an input from a set of firms. In our model, the buyer is able to sign long term contracts that establish the likelihood with which the next period contract is awarded to an entrant or the incumbent. We find that the buyer finds it optimal to favor the incumbent, this generates more intense competition between suppliers. In a two period model we are able to completely characterize the optimal mechanism.

  12. Six Sigma pricing.

    PubMed

    Sodhi, ManMohan S; Sodhi, Navdeep S

    2005-05-01

    Many companies are now good at managing costs and wringing out manufacturing efficiencies. The TQM movement and the disciplines of Six Sigma have seen to that. But the discipline so often brought to the cost side of the business equation is found far less commonly on the revenue side. The authors describe how a global manufacturer of industrial equipment, which they call Acme Incorporated, recently applied Six Sigma to one major revenue related activity--the price-setting process. It seemed to Acme's executives that pricing closely resembled many manufacturing processes. So, with the help of a Six Sigma black belt from manufacturing, a manager from Acme's pricing division recruited a team to carry out the five Six Sigma steps: Define what constitutes a defect. At Acme, a defect was an item sold at an unauthorized price. Gather data and prepare it for analysis. That involved mapping out the existing pricing-agreement process. Analyze the data. The team identified the ways in which people failed to carry out or assert effective control at each stage. Recommend modifications to the existing process. The team sought to decrease the number of unapproved prices without creating an onerous approval apparatus. Create controls. This step enabled Acme to sustain and extend the improvements in its pricing procedures. As a result of the changes, Acme earned dollar 6 million in additional revenue on one product line alone in the six months following implementation--money that went straight to the bottom line. At the same time, the company removed much of the organizational friction that had long bedeviled its pricing process. Other companies can benefit from Acme's experience as they look for ways to exercise price control without alienating customers.

  13. Approximate option pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Chalasani, P.; Saias, I.; Jha, S.

    1996-04-08

    As increasingly large volumes of sophisticated options (called derivative securities) are traded in world financial markets, determining a fair price for these options has become an important and difficult computational problem. Many valuation codes use the binomial pricing model, in which the stock price is driven by a random walk. In this model, the value of an n-period option on a stock is the expected time-discounted value of the future cash flow on an n-period stock price path. Path-dependent options are particularly difficult to value since the future cash flow depends on the entire stock price path rather than on just the final stock price. Currently such options are approximately priced by Monte carlo methods with error bounds that hold only with high probability and which are reduced by increasing the number of simulation runs. In this paper the authors show that pricing an arbitrary path-dependent option is {number_sign}-P hard. They show that certain types f path-dependent options can be valued exactly in polynomial time. Asian options are path-dependent options that are particularly hard to price, and for these they design deterministic polynomial-time approximate algorithms. They show that the value of a perpetual American put option (which can be computed in constant time) is in many cases a good approximation to the value of an otherwise identical n-period American put option. In contrast to Monte Carlo methods, the algorithms have guaranteed error bounds that are polynormally small (and in some cases exponentially small) in the maturity n. For the error analysis they derive large-deviation results for random walks that may be of independent interest.

  14. Essays on oil price volatility and irreversible investment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pastor, Daniel J.

    In chapter 1, we provide an extensive and systematic evaluation of the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of daily spot crude oil prices. Empirical research over the past decades has uncovered significant gains in forecasting performance of Markov Switching GARCH models over GARCH models for the volatility of financial assets and crude oil futures. We find that, for spot oil price returns, non-switching models perform better in the short run, whereas switching models tend to do better at longer horizons. In chapter 2, I investigate the impact of volatility on firms' irreversible investment decisions using real options theory. Cost incurred in oil drilling is considered sunk cost, thus irreversible. I collect detailed data on onshore, development oil well drilling on the North Slope of Alaska from 2003 to 2014. Volatility is modeled by constructing GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR-GARCH forecasts based on monthly real oil prices, and realized volatility from 5-minute intraday returns of oil futures prices. Using a duration model, I show that oil price volatility generally has a negative relationship with the hazard rate of drilling an oil well both when aggregating all the fields, and in individual fields.

  15. Why do stumpage prices increase more than lumber prices?

    Treesearch

    William G. Luppold; John E. Baumgras; John E. Baumgras

    1998-01-01

    Every sawmiller who has been in business more than 5 years realizes that hardwood stumpage prices tend to increase faster than lumber prices, decreasing the margin between these two prices. Although increases in stumpage versus lumber prices are readily apparent, the reason for the decrease in the margin is not. Recent research findings indicate that the stumpage/...

  16. Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1976 Supplement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halstead, Kent D.

    The 1976 supplement presents higher education price index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1976. The basic study, "Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes" (ED 123 996) presents complete descriptions of the indexes together with index values and price data for fiscal years 1961 through 1974. Indexes are presented for research and development,…

  17. Price and cost estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, R. D.

    1979-01-01

    Price and Cost Estimating Program (PACE II) was developed to prepare man-hour and material cost estimates. Versatile and flexible tool significantly reduces computation time and errors and reduces typing and reproduction time involved in preparation of cost estimates.

  18. Pricing and Fee Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischer, Richard B.

    1986-01-01

    Defines key terms and discusses things to consider when setting fees for a continuing education program. These include (1) the organization's philosophy and mission, (2) certain key variables, (3) pricing strategy options, and (4) the test of reasonableness. (CH)

  19. Price percolation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanai, Yasuhiro; Abe, Keiji; Seki, Yoichi

    2015-06-01

    We propose a price percolation model to reproduce the price distribution of components used in industrial finished goods. The intent is to show, using the price percolation model and a component category as an example, that percolation behaviors, which exist in the matter system, the ecosystem, and human society, also exist in abstract, random phenomena satisfying the power law. First, we discretize the total potential demand for a component category, considering it a random field. Second, we assume that the discretized potential demand corresponding to a function of a finished good turns into actual demand if the difficulty of function realization is less than the maximum difficulty of the realization. The simulations using this model suggest that changes in a component category's price distribution are due to changes in the total potential demand corresponding to the lattice size and the maximum difficulty of realization, which is an occupation probability. The results are verified using electronic components' sales data.

  20. Pricing and Fee Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischer, Richard B.

    1986-01-01

    Defines key terms and discusses things to consider when setting fees for a continuing education program. These include (1) the organization's philosophy and mission, (2) certain key variables, (3) pricing strategy options, and (4) the test of reasonableness. (CH)

  1. Price and cost estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, R. D.

    1979-01-01

    Price and Cost Estimating Program (PACE II) was developed to prepare man-hour and material cost estimates. Versatile and flexible tool significantly reduces computation time and errors and reduces typing and reproduction time involved in preparation of cost estimates.

  2. Marginal energy prices report

    SciTech Connect

    Chaitkin, Stuart; Biermayer, Peter; Bretz, Sarah; Brown, Steve; Constantine, Sachu; Fisher, Diane; Hakim, Sajid; Liew, Lucy; Lutz, Jim; Marnay, Chris; McMahon, James E.; Moezzi, Mithra; Osborn, Julie; Rawner, Esther; Roberson, Judy; Rosenquist, Greg; Ryan, Nancy; Turiel, Isaac; Wiel, Stephen

    1999-06-24

    This report responds to a recommendation from the Department of Energy's (DOE) Advisory Committee on Appliance Energy Efficiency Standards. It presents the derivation of estimated consumer marginal energy prices for the commercial and residential sectors for use in the life-cycle cost (LCC) analyses for four of the high priority appliances' energy efficiency standards rule makings --clothes washers, water heaters,fluorescent lamp ballasts, and central airconditioners/heat pumps. Marginal prices as discussed here are those prices consumers pay (or save) for their last units of energy used (or saved). Marginal prices reflect a change in a consumer's bill (that might be associated with new energy efficiency standards) divided by the corresponding change in the amount of energy the consumer used.

  3. Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010

    EIA Publications

    2012-01-01

    This article describes the sampling frames and basic data collection methods for petroleum price data reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other Government agencies. In addition, it compares and contrasts annual average prices reported by EIA with comparable prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI (Consumer Price Indexes) for the retail prices of residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel and motor gasoline (all grades.) Further, it compares refiner wholesale/resale prices for No. 2 fuel oil, No. 2 diesel fuel, motor gasoline (all grades,) kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil reported by EIA with comparable prices from the BLS PPI (Producer Price Index.) A discussion of the various crude oil prices and spot/futures prices published by EIA and other Government agencies is also included in the article.

  4. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1989

    Treesearch

    John S. Vissage

    1992-01-01

    In 1989, the average delivered price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $49.92, an increase of less than 2 percent since 1988. The average delivered price for a green ton of chipped residues increased about 3 percent to $21.70. The total pulpwood expenditure for Midsouth pulpmills increased about 6 percent to $1,658.5 million in 1989. In terms of 1980 dollars,...

  5. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1991

    Treesearch

    Patrick E. Miller

    1993-01-01

    The average delivered price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood in 1991 was $56.39, an increase of 6.5 percent since 1990. Softwood roundwood averaged $58.24 and hardwoods, $50.48 per standard cord, up 2.8 and 7.9 percent, respectively. Chipped residue prices were $26.52 for softwood and $21.0l for hardwood per green ton. The expenditure for wood fiber in the Midsouth...

  6. Real-time Pricing Demand Response in Operations

    SciTech Connect

    Widergren, Steven E.; Marinovici, Maria C.; Berliner, Teri; Graves, Alan

    2012-07-26

    Abstract—Dynamic pricing schemes have been implemented in commercial and industrial application settings, and recently they are getting attention for application to residential customers. Time-of-use and critical-peak-pricing rates are in place in various regions and are being piloted in many more. These programs are proving themselves useful for balancing energy during peak periods; however, real-time (5 minute) pricing signals combined with automation in end-use systems have the potential to deliver even more benefits to operators and consumers. Besides system peak shaving, a real-time pricing system can contribute demand response based on the locational marginal price of electricity, reduce load in response to a generator outage, and respond to local distribution system capacity limiting situations. The US Department of Energy (DOE) is teaming with a mid-west electricity service provider to run a distribution feeder-based retail electricity market that negotiates with residential automation equipment and clears every 5 minutes, thus providing a signal for lowering or raising electric consumption based on operational objectives of economic efficiency and reliability. This paper outlines the capability of the real-time pricing system and the operational scenarios being tested as the system is rolled-out starting in the first half of 2012.

  7. Dark Spots and Fans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    As winter turns to spring at the south polar ice cap of Mars, the rising sun reveals dark spots and fans emerging from the cold polar night. Using visual images (left) and temperature data (right) from the Thermal Emission Imaging system on NASA's Mars Odyssey orbiter, scientists have built a new model for the origin of the dark markings. Scientists propose the markings come from dark sand and dust strewn by high-speed jets of carbon-dioxide gas. These erupt from under a layer of carbon-dioxide ice that forms each Martian winter.

  8. Red Spot Movie

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    This brief movie shows counterclockwise atmospheric motion around Jupiter's Great Red Spot. The clip was made from blue-filter images taken with the narrow-angle camera on NASA's Cassini spacecraft during seven separate rotations of Jupiter between Oct. 1 and Oct. 5, 2000.

    The clip also shows the eastward and westward motion of the zonal jets, seen as the horizontal stripes flowing in opposite directions. The zonal jets circle the planet. As far as can be determined from both Earth-based and spacecraft measurements, the positions and speeds of the jets have not changed for 100 years. Since Jupiter is a fluid planet without a solid boundary, the jet speeds are measured relative to Jupiter's magnetic field, which rotates, wobbling like a top because of its tilt, every 9 hours 55.5 minutes. The movie shows motions in the magnetic reference frame, so winds to the west correspond to features that are rotating a little slower than the magnetic field, and eastward winds correspond to features rotating a little faster.

    Because the Red Spot is in the southern hemisphere, the direction of motion indicates it is a high-pressure center. Small bright clouds appear suddenly to the west of the Great Red Spot. Scientists suspect these small white features are lightning storms. The storms eventually merge with the Red Spot and surrounding jets, and may be the main energy source for the large-scale features.

    The smallest features in the movie are about 500 kilometers (about 300 miles) across. The spacing of the movie frames in time is not uniform; some consecutive images are separated by two Jupiter rotations, and some by one. The images have been re-projected using a simple cylindrical map projection. They show an area from 50 degrees north of Jupiter's equator to 50 degrees south, extending 100 degrees east-west, about one quarter of Jupiter's circumference.

    Cassini is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency. The Jet

  9. [Rocky Mountain spotted fever].

    PubMed

    Reinauer, K M; Jaschonek, K; Kusch, G; Heizmann, W R; Döller, P C; Jenss, H

    1990-01-12

    After returning from a holiday in the USA a 24-year-old man fell ill with diarrhoea, high fever and marked rash including the palms of the hands and soles of the feet. When a history of a tick bite in the USA was elicited, a rickettsial infection was suspected. Treatment with doxycycline, 100 mg twice daily, was instituted finally and the fever slowly resolved. The patient became completely well again within four weeks. Serological tests confirmed the diagnosis of Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

  10. Red Spot Movie

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    This brief movie shows counterclockwise atmospheric motion around Jupiter's Great Red Spot. The clip was made from blue-filter images taken with the narrow-angle camera on NASA's Cassini spacecraft during seven separate rotations of Jupiter between Oct. 1 and Oct. 5, 2000.

    The clip also shows the eastward and westward motion of the zonal jets, seen as the horizontal stripes flowing in opposite directions. The zonal jets circle the planet. As far as can be determined from both Earth-based and spacecraft measurements, the positions and speeds of the jets have not changed for 100 years. Since Jupiter is a fluid planet without a solid boundary, the jet speeds are measured relative to Jupiter's magnetic field, which rotates, wobbling like a top because of its tilt, every 9 hours 55.5 minutes. The movie shows motions in the magnetic reference frame, so winds to the west correspond to features that are rotating a little slower than the magnetic field, and eastward winds correspond to features rotating a little faster.

    Because the Red Spot is in the southern hemisphere, the direction of motion indicates it is a high-pressure center. Small bright clouds appear suddenly to the west of the Great Red Spot. Scientists suspect these small white features are lightning storms. The storms eventually merge with the Red Spot and surrounding jets, and may be the main energy source for the large-scale features.

    The smallest features in the movie are about 500 kilometers (about 300 miles) across. The spacing of the movie frames in time is not uniform; some consecutive images are separated by two Jupiter rotations, and some by one. The images have been re-projected using a simple cylindrical map projection. They show an area from 50 degrees north of Jupiter's equator to 50 degrees south, extending 100 degrees east-west, about one quarter of Jupiter's circumference.

    Cassini is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency. The Jet

  11. The ethics of dynamic pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Faruqui, Ahmad

    2010-07-15

    Dynamic pricing has garnered much interest among regulators and utilities, since it has the potential for lowering energy costs for society. But the deployment of dynamic pricing has been remarkably tepid. The underlying premise is that dynamic pricing is unfair. But the presumption of unfairness in dynamic pricing rests on an assumption of fairness in today's tariffs. (author)

  12. Pricing Information Products and Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broadbent, H. E., III

    1981-01-01

    Outlines several approaches to the establishment of prices for information products and services by the administrators of libraries and information centers, including optimization, pricing to achieve organizational objectives, pricing for market structures, and types of market structure pricing systems. A reference list is included. (JL)

  13. Essays on competition in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bustos Salvagno, Ricardo Javier

    The first chapter shows how technology decisions affect entry in commodity markets with oligopolistic competition, like the electricity market. I demonstrate an entry deterrence effect that works through cost uncertainty. Technology's cost uncertainty affects spot market expected profits through forward market trades. Therefore, incentives to engage in forward trading shape firms' decisions on production technologies. I show that high-cost but low-risk technologies are adopted by risk-averse incumbents to deter entry. Strategic technology adoption can end in a equilibrium where high-cost technologies prevail over low-cost but riskier ones. In the case of incumbents who are less risk-averse than entrants, entry deterrence is achieved by choosing riskier technologies. The main results do not depend on who chooses their technology first. Chapter two examines the Chilean experience on auctions for long-term supply contracts in electricity markets from 2006 to 2011. Using a divisible-good auction model, I provide a theoretical framework that explains bidding behavior in terms of expected spot prices and contracting positions. The model is extended to include potential strategic behavior on contracting decisions. Empirical estimations confirm the main determinants of bidding behavior and show heterogeneity in the marginal cost of over-contracting depending on size and incumbency. Chapter three analyzes the lag in capacity expansion in the Chilean electricity market from 2000 to 2004. Regarded as a result of regulatory uncertainty, the role of delays in the construction of a large hydro-power plant has been overlooked by the literature. We argue that those delays postponed projected investment and gave small windows of opportunity that only incumbents could take advantage of. We are able to retrace the history of investments through real-time information from the regulator's reports and a simple model enables us to explain the effect of those delays on suggested and under

  14. Creation of identical multiple focal spots with prescribed axial distribution.

    PubMed

    Yu, Yanzhong; Zhan, Qiwen

    2015-10-01

    We present a scheme for the construction of coaxially equidistant multiple focal spots with identical intensity profiles for each individual focus and a predetermined number and spacing. To achieve this, the radiation field from an antenna is reversed and then gathered by high numerical aperture objective lenses. Radiation patterns from three types of line sources, i.e., the electric current, magnetic current and electromagnetic current distributions, with cosine-squared taper are respectively employed to generate predominately longitudinally polarized bright spots, azimuthally polarized doughnuts, and focal spots with a perfect spherically symmetric intensity distribution. The required illuminations at the pupil plane of a 4Pi focusing configuration for the creation of these identical multiple focal spots can be easily derived by solving the inverse problem of the antenna radiation field. These unique focal field distributions may find potential applications in laser direct writing and optical microscopy, as well as multiple-particle trapping, alignment, and acceleration along the optical axis.

  15. Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

    2002-05-15

    Advocates of energy efficiency and renewable energy have long argued that such technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments--made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001--have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that these sources provide. In evaluating this benefit, it is important to recognize that alternative price hedging instruments are available--in particular, gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps) and physical, fixed-price gas contracts. Whether energy efficiency and renewable energy can provide price stability at lower cost than these alternative means is therefore a key question for resource acquisition planners. In this paper we evaluate the cost of hedging gas price risk through financial hedging instruments. To do this, we compare the price of a 10-year natural gas swap (i.e., what it costs to lock in prices over the next 10 years) to a 10-year natural gas price forecast (i.e., what the market is expecting spot natural gas prices to be over the next 10 years). We find that over the past two years natural gas users have had to pay a premium as high as $0.76/mmBtu (0.53/242/kWh at an aggressive 7,000 Btu/kWh heat rate) over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost to hedge gas price risk exposure is potentially large enough - particularly if incorporated by policymakers and regulators into decision-making practices - to tip the scales away from new investments in variable-price, natural gas-fired generation and in favor of fixed-price investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

  16. Little Bright Spot

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2015-01-12

    A bright spot can be seen on the left side of Rhea in this image. The spot is the crater Inktomi, named for a Lakota spider spirit. Inktomi is believed to be the youngest feature on Rhea (949 miles or 1527 kilometers across). The relative youth of the feature is evident by its brightness. Material that is newly excavated from below the moon's surface and tossed across the surface by a cratering event, appears bright. But as the newly exposed surface is subjected to the harsh space environment, it darkens. This is one technique scientists use to date features on surfaces. This view looks toward the trailing hemisphere of Rhea. North on Rhea is up and rotated 21 degrees to the left. The image was taken in visible light with the Cassini spacecraft narrow-angle camera on July 29, 2013. The view was obtained at a distance of approximately 1.0 million miles (1.6 million kilometers) fro http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA18300

  17. Configurable hot spot fixing system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kajiwara, Masanari; Kobayashi, Sachiko; Mashita, Hiromitsu; Aburada, Ryota; Furuta, Nozomu; Kotani, Toshiya

    2014-03-01

    Hot spot fixing (HSF) method has been used to fix many hot spots automatically. However, conventional HSF based on a biasing based modification is difficult to fix many hot spots under a low-k1 lithography condition. In this paper we proposed a new HSF, called configurable hotspot fixing system. The HSF has two major concepts. One is a new function to utilize vacant space around a hot spot by adding new patterns or extending line end edges around the hot spot. The other is to evaluate many candidates at a time generated by the new functions. We confirmed the proposed HSF improves 73% on the number of fixing hot spots and reduces total fixing time by 50% on a device layout equivalent to 28nm-node. The result shows the proposed HSF is effective for layouts under the low-k1 lithography condition.

  18. Turbulent spots in hypervelocity flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jewell, Joseph S.; Leyva, Ivett A.; Shepherd, Joseph E.

    2017-04-01

    The turbulent spot propagation process in boundary layer flows of air, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and air/carbon dioxide mixtures in thermochemical nonequilibrium at high enthalpy is investigated. Experiments are performed in a hypervelocity reflected shock tunnel with a 5-degree half-angle axisymmetric cone instrumented with flush-mounted fast-response coaxial thermocouples. Time-resolved and spatially demarcated heat transfer traces are used to track the propagation of turbulent bursts within the mean flow, and convection rates at approximately 91, 74, and 63% of the boundary layer edge velocity, respectively, are observed for the leading edge, peak, and trailing edge of the spots. A simple model constructed with these spot propagation parameters is used to infer spot generation rates from observed transition onset to completion distance. Spot generation rates in air and nitrogen are estimated to be approximately twice the spot generation rates in air/carbon dioxide mixtures.

  19. Pulp & paper markets cope with high energy prices and growth in Asia : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2005-2006

    Treesearch

    Peter J. Ince

    2006-01-01

    \\tPulp and paper markets in the UNECE region were influenced by higher energy prices and demand growth in Asia in 2005 and 2006. Important developments in Europe included the launching of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which was followed by substantial increases in electrical energy prices. High global energy prices pushed up costs of production and prices for pulp...

  20. Jovian Dark Spot

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    A recently discovered black spot in Jupiter's clouds is darker than any feature ever before observed on the giant planet. The spot may be the result of a downward spiraling wind that blows away high clouds and reveals deeper, very dark cloud layers. These three panels depict the same area of Jupiter's atmosphere. A map of Jovian temperatures near 250 millibar pressure (top) panel is derived from the photopolarimeter-radiometer instrument on NASA's Galileo Jupiter orbiter. This map is compared with maps derived from images of the same area in visible light (middle panel)and thermal radiation sensitive to cloud-top temperatures (bottom panel).

    The single downward-pointing arrow in the top panel indicates the location of a warm area that corresponds to the position of a so-called 'black spot'(shown in the middle panel), a feature that is about a year old. Features this dark are rare on Jupiter. The bottom panel, sensitive to temperatures at Jupiter's cloud tops, shows this feature as a bright object, meaning that upper-level cold clouds are missing - allowing us to see deeper into Jupiter's warmer interior. The dark visible appearance of the feature than most likely represents the color of very deep clouds. The warm temperatures and cloud-free conditions imply that this feature is a region where dry upper-atmospheric gas is being forced to converge, is warmed up and then forced to descend, clearing out clouds. It is the opposite of wet, upwelling gas in areas such as Jupiter's Great Red Spot or white ovals. On the other hand, it is unlike the dry and relatively cloudless feature into which the Galileo probe descended in 1995, because that region had the same temperatures as its surroundings and did not appear nearly as dark as this new spot.

    The temperatures sampled by the photopolarimeter radiometer are near the top of Jupiter's troposphere, where wind motions control the atmosphere. The top row of arrows shows the location of temperature waves in a warm region

  1. Jovian Dark Spot

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    A recently discovered black spot in Jupiter's clouds is darker than any feature ever before observed on the giant planet. The spot may be the result of a downward spiraling wind that blows away high clouds and reveals deeper, very dark cloud layers. These three panels depict the same area of Jupiter's atmosphere. A map of Jovian temperatures near 250 millibar pressure (top) panel is derived from the photopolarimeter-radiometer instrument on NASA's Galileo Jupiter orbiter. This map is compared with maps derived from images of the same area in visible light (middle panel)and thermal radiation sensitive to cloud-top temperatures (bottom panel).

    The single downward-pointing arrow in the top panel indicates the location of a warm area that corresponds to the position of a so-called 'black spot'(shown in the middle panel), a feature that is about a year old. Features this dark are rare on Jupiter. The bottom panel, sensitive to temperatures at Jupiter's cloud tops, shows this feature as a bright object, meaning that upper-level cold clouds are missing - allowing us to see deeper into Jupiter's warmer interior. The dark visible appearance of the feature than most likely represents the color of very deep clouds. The warm temperatures and cloud-free conditions imply that this feature is a region where dry upper-atmospheric gas is being forced to converge, is warmed up and then forced to descend, clearing out clouds. It is the opposite of wet, upwelling gas in areas such as Jupiter's Great Red Spot or white ovals. On the other hand, it is unlike the dry and relatively cloudless feature into which the Galileo probe descended in 1995, because that region had the same temperatures as its surroundings and did not appear nearly as dark as this new spot.

    The temperatures sampled by the photopolarimeter radiometer are near the top of Jupiter's troposphere, where wind motions control the atmosphere. The top row of arrows shows the location of temperature waves in a warm region

  2. Market Depth and Price Dynamics:

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerhoff, Frank H.

    This note explores the consequences of nonlinear price impact functions on price dynamics within the chartist-fundamentalist framework. Price impact functions may be nonlinear with respect to trading volume. As indicated by recent empirical studies, a given transaction may cause a large (small) price change if market depth is low (high). Simulations reveal that such a relationship may create endogenous complex price fluctuations even if the trading behavior of chartists and fundamentalists is linear.

  3. 7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... MILK IN THE CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.53 Announcement...

  4. 7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... MILK IN THE CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.53 Announcement...

  5. 7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... MILK IN THE CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.53 Announcement...

  6. 7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... MILK IN THE CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.53 Announcement...

  7. 7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... MILK IN THE CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.53 Announcement...

  8. Price smarter on the Net.

    PubMed

    Baker, W; Marn, M; Zawada, C

    2001-02-01

    Companies generally have set prices on the Internet in two ways. Many start-ups have offered untenably low prices in a rush to capture first-mover advantage. Many incumbents have simply charged the same prices on-line as they do off-line. Either way, companies are missing a big opportunity. The fundamental value of the Internet lies not in lowering prices or making them consistent but in optimizing them. After all, if it's easy for customers to compare prices on the Internet, it's also easy for companies to track customers' behavior and adjust prices accordingly. The Net lets companies optimize prices in three ways. First, it lets them set and announce prices with greater precision. Different prices can be tested easily, and customers' responses can be collected instantly. Companies can set the most profitable prices, and they can tap into previously hidden customer demand. Second, because it's so easy to change prices on the Internet, companies can adjust prices in response to even small fluctuations in market conditions, customer demand, or competitors' behavior. Third, companies can use the clickstream data and purchase histories that it collects through the Internet to segment customers quickly. Then it can offer segment-specific prices or promotions immediately. By taking full advantage of the unique possibilities afforded by the Internet to set prices with precision, adapt to changing circumstances quickly, and segment customers accurately, companies can get their pricing right. It's one of the ultimate drivers of e-business success.

  9. Operation of Distributed Generation Under Stochastic Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-11-30

    We model the operating decisions of a commercial enterprisethatneeds to satisfy its periodic electricity demand with either on-sitedistributed generation (DG) or purchases from the wholesale market. Whilethe former option involves electricity generation at relatively high andpossibly stochastic costs from a set of capacity-constrained DGtechnologies, the latter implies unlimited open-market transactions atstochastic prices. A stochastic dynamic programme (SDP) is used to solvethe resulting optimisation problem. By solving the SDP with and withoutthe availability of DG units, the implied option values of the DG unitsare obtained.

  10. Spotting effect in microarray experiments

    PubMed Central

    Mary-Huard, Tristan; Daudin, Jean-Jacques; Robin, Stéphane; Bitton, Frédérique; Cabannes, Eric; Hilson, Pierre

    2004-01-01

    Background Microarray data must be normalized because they suffer from multiple biases. We have identified a source of spatial experimental variability that significantly affects data obtained with Cy3/Cy5 spotted glass arrays. It yields a periodic pattern altering both signal (Cy3/Cy5 ratio) and intensity across the array. Results Using the variogram, a geostatistical tool, we characterized the observed variability, called here the spotting effect because it most probably arises during steps in the array printing procedure. Conclusions The spotting effect is not appropriately corrected by current normalization methods, even by those addressing spatial variability. Importantly, the spotting effect may alter differential and clustering analysis. PMID:15151695

  11. Pharmaceutical Pricing: The Use of External Reference Pricing.

    PubMed

    Ruggeri, Kai; Nolte, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    External reference pricing, or international price comparison, is a common strategy to control prices of pharmaceuticals that are protected by intellectual property rights and benefit from a legal monopoly (in-patent drugs). In the UK negotiations are under way that seek to define new arrangements for the pricing of branded (new) medicines from 2014. The pharmaceutical market in the UK only accounts for a small proportion of global sales; however, UK prices are important as many countries reference their prices against those in the UK. This article seeks to contribute to our understanding of approaches to pharmaceutical pricing in high-income countries and the role of reference pricing as a means to determining pharmaceutical prices. Reviewing experiences in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, we find high variability of external reference pricing across different settings and of the relative importance of this approach in comparison with other pricing strategies. There was also considerable variation in the terminology and practices used, and understanding the complexities of countries included in reference baskets for external pricing requires considerable semantic clarification. There was considerable overlap between countries that cross-reference, and it remains challenging to estimate the direct, immediate impact on external reference baskets. This review suggests that the international impact of pricing changes in the UK is likely to be minimal or indirect, largely because of the diverse ways in which reference pricing is implemented in the countries examined.

  12. The potential impact of renewable energy deployment on natural gas prices in New England

    SciTech Connect

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-09-20

    Concerns about the price and supply of natural gas have deepened in recent years both nationally and in New England. Renewable energy (RE) technologies can directly hedge natural gas price risk by reducing the need to purchase variable-price natural gas-fired electricity generation, and replacing that generation with fixed-price renewable electricity supply. In addition to its direct contribution to price stability, an increasing number of studies show that renewable energy deployment can also put downward pressure on natural gas prices by reducing demand for gas among gas-fired generators. These gas price reductions are, in turn, expected to reduce electricity prices and--more importantly--directly reduce consumer natural gas bills. Many recent studies have found that this effect may be significant, substantially benefiting consumers. These studies are reviewed in the attached paper, published in the proceedings of a recent national energy conference. An important consideration is that--strictly speaking--this price reduction represents a consumer benefit that comes at the expense of producers; it therefore represents a wealth transfer, not a net gain in social welfare. That said, current concerns about the price and supply of natural gas suggest that policymakers may want to pursue actions that reduce the strain of high prices on consumer energy bills.

  13. Risk management and market efficiency on the Midwest Independent System Operator electricity exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Kevin

    Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc. (MISO) is a non-profit regional transmission organization (RTO) that oversees electricity production and transmission across thirteen states and one Canadian province. MISO also operates an electronic exchange for buying and selling electricity for each of its five regional hubs. MISO oversees two types of markets. The forward market, which is referred to as the day-ahead (DA) market, allows market participants to place demand bids and supply offers on electricity to be delivered at a specified hour the following day. The equilibrium price, known as the locational marginal price (LMP), is determined by MISO after receiving sale offers and purchase bids from market participants. MISO also coordinates a spot market, which is known as the real-time (RT) market. Traders in the real-time market must submit bids and offers by thirty minutes prior to the hour for which the trade will be executed. After receiving purchase and sale offers for a given hour in the real time market, MISO then determines the LMP for that particular hour. The existence of the DA and RT markets allows producers and retailers to hedge against the large fluctuations that are common in electricity prices. Hedge ratios on the MISO exchange are estimated using various techniques. No hedge ratio technique examined consistently outperforms the unhedged portfolio in terms of variance reduction. Consequently, none of the hedge ratio methods in this study meet the general interpretation of FASB guidelines for a highly effective hedge. One of the major goals of deregulation is to bring about competition and increased efficiency in electricity markets. Previous research suggests that electricity exchanges may not be weak-form market efficient. A simple moving average trading rule is found to produce statistically and economically significant profits on the MISO exchange. This could call the long-term survivability of the MISO exchange into question.

  14. 18 CFR Appendix A 1 to Part 281 - Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... DOE/EIA Energy Data Report entitled Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Utility Plants (Annual... steam electric plants. Prices paid for No. 6 fuel oil include prices paid for minor amounts of No. 4 and No. 5 fuel oil, crude and topped crude. Type of fuel FPC form No. 423 price data 1 1976 1977 1978...

  15. 76 FR 24187 - Electricity Market Transparency Provisions of Section 220 of the Federal Power Act

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-29

    ... price transparency in markets for the sale and transmission of electric energy in interstate commerce... facilitate price transparency in markets for the sale and transmission of electric energy in interstate..., of information about the availability and prices of wholesale electric energy and transmission...

  16. Jumping-droplet electronics hot-spot cooling

    DOE PAGES

    Oh, Junho; Birbarah, Patrick; Foulkes, Thomas; ...

    2017-03-20

    Demand for enhanced cooling technologies within various commercial and consumer applications has increased in recent decades due to electronic devices becoming more energy dense. This study demonstrates jumping-droplet based electric-field-enhanced (EFE) condensation as a potential method to achieve active hot spot cooling in electronic devices. To test the viability of EFE condensation, we developed an experimental setup to remove heat via droplet evaporation from single and multiple high power gallium nitride (GaN) transistors acting as local hot spots (4.6 mm x 2.6 mm). An externally powered circuit was developed to direct jumping droplets from a copper oxide (CuO) nanostructured superhydrophobicmore » surface to the transistor hot spots by applying electric fields between the condensing surface and the transistor. Heat transfer measurements were performed in ambient air (22-25°C air temperature, 20-45% relative humidity) to determine the effect of gap spacing (2-4 mm), electric field (50-250 V/cm), and heat flux (demonstrated to 13 W/cm2). EFE condensation was shown to enhance the heat transfer from the local hot spot by ≈ 200% compared to cooling without jumping and by 20% compared to non-EFE jumping. Dynamic switching of the electric field for a two-GaN system reveals the potential for active cooling of mobile hot spots. The opportunity for further cooling enhancement by the removal of non-condensable gases promises hot spot heat dissipation rates approaching 120 W/cm2. Finally, this work provides a framework for the development of active jumping droplet based vapor chambers and heat pipes capable of spatial and temporal thermal dissipation control.« less

  17. Jumping-droplet electronics hot-spot cooling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, Junho; Birbarah, Patrick; Foulkes, Thomas; Yin, Sabrina L.; Rentauskas, Michelle; Neely, Jason; Pilawa-Podgurski, Robert C. N.; Miljkovic, Nenad

    2017-03-01

    Demand for enhanced cooling technologies within various commercial and consumer applications has increased in recent decades due to electronic devices becoming more energy dense. This study demonstrates jumping-droplet based electric-field-enhanced (EFE) condensation as a potential method to achieve active hot spot cooling in electronic devices. To test the viability of EFE condensation, we developed an experimental setup to remove heat via droplet evaporation from single and multiple high power gallium nitride (GaN) transistors acting as local hot spots (4.6 mm × 2.6 mm). An externally powered circuit was developed to direct jumping droplets from a copper oxide (CuO) nanostructured superhydrophobic surface to the transistor hot spots by applying electric fields between the condensing surface and the transistor. Heat transfer measurements were performed in ambient air (22-25 °C air temperature, 20%-45% relative humidity) to determine the effect of gap spacing (2-4 mm), electric field (50-250 V/cm) and applied heat flux (demonstrated to 13 W/cm2). EFE condensation was shown to enhance the heat transfer from the local hot spot by ≈200% compared to cooling without jumping and by 20% compared to non-EFE jumping. Dynamic switching of the electric field for a two-GaN system reveals the potential for active cooling of mobile hot spots. The opportunity for further cooling enhancement by the removal of non-condensable gases promises hot spot heat dissipation rates approaching 120 W/cm2. This work provides a framework for the development of active jumping droplet based vapor chambers and heat pipes capable of spatial and temporal thermal dissipation control.

  18. Real Time Pricing and the Real Live Firm

    SciTech Connect

    Moezzi, Mithra; Goldman, Charles; Sezgen, Osman; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper, Nicole

    2004-05-26

    Energy economists have long argued the benefits of real time pricing (RTP) of electricity. Their basis for modeling customers response to short-term fluctuations in electricity prices are based on theories of rational firm behavior, where management strives to minimize operating costs and optimize profit, and labor, capital and energy are potential substitutes in the firm's production function. How well do private firms and public sector institutions operating conditions, knowledge structures, decision-making practices, and external relationships comport with these assumptions and how might this impact price response? We discuss these issues on the basis of interviews with 29 large (over 2 MW) industrial, commercial, and institutional customers in the Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation service territory that have faced day-ahead electricity market prices since 1998. We look at stories interviewees told about why and how they respond to RTP, why some customers report that they can't, and why even if they can, they don't. Some firms respond as theorized, and we describe their load curtailment strategies. About half of our interviewees reported that they were unable to either shift or forego electricity consumption even when prices are high ($0.50/kWh). Reasons customers gave for why they weren't price-responsive include implicit value placed on reliability, pricing structures, lack of flexibility in adjusting production inputs, just-in-time practices, perceived barriers to onsite generation, and insufficient time. We draw these observations into a framework that could help refine economic theory of dynamic pricing by providing real-world descriptions of how firms behave and why.

  19. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  20. Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

    PubMed

    Dantas-Torres, Filipe

    2007-11-01

    Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a life-threatening disease caused by Rickettsia rickettsii, an obligately intracellular bacterium that is spread to human beings by ticks. More than a century after its first clinical description, this disease is still among the most virulent human infections identified, being potentially fatal even in previously healthy young people. The diagnosis of RMSF is based on the patient's history and a physical examination, and often presents a dilemma for clinicians because of the non-specific presentation of the disease in its early course. Early empirical treatment is essential to prevent severe complications or a fatal outcome, and treatment should be initiated even in unconfirmed cases. Because there is no vaccine available against RMSF, avoidance of tick-infested areas is still the best way to prevent the infection.

  1. Resolving stellar surface spots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strassmeier, K. G.; Carroll, T.; Rice, J. B.; Savanov, I. S.

    Doppler imaging of stellar surfaces is a novel technique with similarities to medical brain tomography (instead of a fixed brain and a rotating scanner, astronomers have a fixed spectrograph and a rotating brain, star of course). The number of free (internal) parameters is of the order of the number of surface grid points and only constrained by the number of input data points. This obviously ill-posed situation requires modern inversion algorithms with penalty functions of the form of maximum entropy or Tikhonov etc.. We present a brief status review of our Doppler imaging codes at AIP that span from temperature and spot-filling-factor mapping to full Stokes-based magnetic field mapping.

  2. Informatics requirements for a restructured competitive electric power industry

    SciTech Connect

    Pickle, S.; Marnay, C.; Olken, F.

    1996-08-01

    The electric power industry in the United States is undergoing a slow but nonetheless dramatic transformation. It is a transformation driven by technology, economics, and politics; one that will move the industry from its traditional mode of centralized system operations and regulated rates guaranteeing long-run cost recovery, to decentralized investment and operational decisionmaking and to customer access to true spot market prices. This transformation will revolutionize the technical, procedural, and informational requirements of the industry. A major milestone in this process occurred on December 20, 1995, when the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approved its long-awaited electric utility industry restructuring decision. The decision directed the three major California investor-owned utilities to reorganize themselves by the beginning of 1998 into a supply pool, at the same time selling up to a half of their thermal generating plants. Generation will be bid into this pool and will be dispatched by an independent system operator. The dispatch could potentially involve bidders not only from California but from throughout western North America and include every conceivable generating technology and scale of operation. At the same time, large customers and aggregated customer groups will be able to contract independently for their supply and the utilities will be required to offer a real-time pricing tariff based on the pool price to all their customers, including residential. In related proceedings concerning competitive wholesale power markets, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has recognized that real-time information flows between buyers and sellers are essential to efficient equitable market operation. The purpose of this meeting was to hold discussions on the information technologies that will be needed in the new, deregulated electric power industry.

  3. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale...

  4. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale...

  5. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale...

  6. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale...

  7. Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    Cash and carry arbitrage occurs when the futures price is greater than the spot price plus the carrying cost minus the carry return . Reverse cash and...England: John Wiley and Sons, 2005. 14 D. SWAPS In order to mitigate risk from exposure to interest rates many firms utilize swaps.34...organizations to make a profit. So in order to mitigate the risk associated with fluctuating interest rates organizations can utilize swaps. Swaps are

  8. Oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets: Large-scale simulation and policy analysis using complementarity models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helman, E. Udi

    This dissertation conducts research into the large-scale simulation of oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets. The dissertation has two parts. Part I is an examination of the structure and properties of several spatial, or network, equilibrium models of oligopolistic electricity markets formulated as mixed linear complementarity problems (LCP). Part II is a large-scale application of such models to the electricity system that encompasses most of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, the Eastern Interconnection. Part I consists of Chapters 1 to 6. The models developed in this part continue research into mixed LCP models of oligopolistic electricity markets initiated by Hobbs [67] and subsequently developed by Metzler [87] and Metzler, Hobbs and Pang [88]. Hobbs' central contribution is a network market model with Cournot competition in generation and a price-taking spatial arbitrage firm that eliminates spatial price discrimination by the Cournot firms. In one variant, the solution to this model is shown to be equivalent to the "no arbitrage" condition in a "pool" market, in which a Regional Transmission Operator optimizes spot sales such that the congestion price between two locations is exactly equivalent to the difference in the energy prices at those locations (commonly known as locational marginal pricing). Extensions to this model are presented in Chapters 5 and 6. One of these is a market model with a profit-maximizing arbitrage firm. This model is structured as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC), but due to the linearity of its constraints, can be solved as a mixed LCP. Part II consists of Chapters 7 to 12. The core of these chapters is a large-scale simulation of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection applying one of the Cournot competition with arbitrage models. This is the first oligopolistic equilibrium market model to encompass the full Eastern Interconnection with a realistic network representation (using

  9. 7 CFR 1000.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1000.54 Section 1000.54 Agriculture... Prices § 1000.54 Equivalent price. If for any reason a price or pricing constituent required for computing the prices described in § 1000.50 is not available, the market administrator shall use a price or...

  10. Anomalous Aspects of Pricing in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yanikoski, Richard A.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses six propositions concerning higher education contradicting prevailing pricing wisdom: high demand rarely drives prices up; market share increases rarely drive prices down; competition drives prices up; tuition prices are only loosely tied to delivery costs; student tuition is only loosely tied to price; and high tuition prices do not…

  11. Pricing and Marketing Online Information Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Sheila Anne Elizabeth

    1998-01-01

    Discusses the pricing of online information in the broader context of marketing. Highlights include changes in the marketing context and issues of value relating to price; other reviews of online pricing; trends affecting price, including public sector involvement and the Internet; promotional pricing; price discrimination; and price aggregation…

  12. Pricing and Marketing Online Information Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Sheila Anne Elizabeth

    1998-01-01

    Discusses the pricing of online information in the broader context of marketing. Highlights include changes in the marketing context and issues of value relating to price; other reviews of online pricing; trends affecting price, including public sector involvement and the Internet; promotional pricing; price discrimination; and price aggregation…

  13. Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Colombia.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo, Marylin; Orejuela, Leonora; Fuya, Patricia; Carrillo, Pilar; Hernandez, Jorge; Parra, Edgar; Keng, Colette; Small, Melissa; Olano, Juan P; Bouyer, Donald; Castaneda, Elizabeth; Walker, David; Valbuena, Gustavo

    2007-07-01

    We investigated 2 fatal cases of Rocky Mountain spotted fever that occurred in 2003 and 2004 near the same locality in Colombia where the disease was first reported in the 1930s. A retrospective serosurvey of febrile patients showed that > 21% of the serum samples had antibodies aaainst spotted fever group rickettsiae.

  14. Black-spot poison ivy.

    PubMed

    Schram, Sarah E; Willey, Andrea; Lee, Peter K; Bohjanen, Kimberly A; Warshaw, Erin M

    2008-01-01

    In black-spot poison ivy dermatitis, a black lacquerlike substance forms on the skin when poison ivy resin is exposed to air. Although the Toxicodendron group of plants is estimated to be the most common cause of allergic contact dermatitis in the United States, black-spot poison ivy dermatitis is relatively rare.

  15. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Colombia

    PubMed Central

    Hidalgo, Marylin; Orejuela, Leonora; Fuya, Patricia; Carrillo, Pilar; Hernandez, Jorge; Parra, Edgar; Keng, Colette; Small, Melissa; Olano, Juan P.; Bouyer, Donald; Castaneda, Elizabeth; Walker, David

    2007-01-01

    We investigated 2 fatal cases of Rocky Mountain spotted fever that occurred in 2003 and 2004 near the same locality in Colombia where the disease was first reported in the 1930s. A retrospective serosurvey of febrile patients showed that >21% of the serum samples had antibodies against spotted fever group rickettsiae. PMID:18214179

  16. Controlled-Pinch Spot Welder

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morgen, Gene E.

    1990-01-01

    Handheld spot-welding gun clamps workpiece under air pressure instead of under operator's hand pressure. Trigger actuates both air pressure and welding current. Makes spot welds more repeatable and reliable. Reduces amount of manual labor required and enables welds to be made at faster rate. Compact and light in weight, reaches restricted area that ordinary commercial welding guns cannot.

  17. Exserohilum Leaf Spot on Tigergrass

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Tigergrass (Thysanolaena maxima (Roxb.) Kuntze ) is a popular ornamental grass grown throughout landscapes in South Florida. In the summer of 2006, a leaf spot was observed on tigergrass in the landscape and a commercial nursery in Homestead, FL. The causal agent of the leaf spot was isolated, cha...

  18. Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

    SciTech Connect

    Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron; Ela, Erik; Botterud, Audun; Townsend, Aaron; Levin, Todd

    2016-03-22

    This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs. Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.

  19. Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

    SciTech Connect

    Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron; Ela, Erik; Botterud, Audun; Townsend, Aaron; Levin, Todd

    2016-03-01

    This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs. Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. We explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for longterm reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs

  20. Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

    DOE PAGES

    Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron; ...

    2016-03-22

    This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

  1. 130. Julian Price Memorial Park. Fortyseven acre Julian Price Lake ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    130. Julian Price Memorial Park. Forty-seven acre Julian Price Lake created by an impoundment. Looking west. - Blue Ridge Parkway, Between Shenandoah National Park & Great Smoky Mountains, Asheville, Buncombe County, NC

  2. Convergence and Divergence of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romagus, George M.

    This research investigates the possibility that WTI crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas prices share a stable link. Economic theory suggests that the two commodities are linked by both supply and demand given that the commodities can be coproduced and many consumers have the ability to switch between the fuels. In general, it would appear that the two commodities support this theory with natural gas prices tracking crude oil prices fairly well until late 2008. However, since the end of 2008 the two price series have diverged and appear to move independently of each other. Reduced fuel switching capabilities in U.S. industry and electric power generation coupled with increased technology and production from shale formations have potentially changed the driving force behind natural gas prices. However, a severe recession has impacted world economies over the same time period making the cause of the disparity between crude oil and natural gas prices unclear. Therefore, this research analyzed the possible long-term link between the two commodities over two timeframes. Using an error correction model that includes exogenous factors affecting the short-run dynamics of natural gas prices over the period January 1999 through September 2008, I find evidence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices. Additionally, crude oil prices are found to be weakly exogenous to the system, suggesting causality runs from crude oil to natural gas prices. Extending this series through February 2012 yields much weaker evidence of a cointegrating relationship and provides evidence for the decoupling crude oil and natural gas prices.

  3. Price transparency: building community trust.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Richard L

    2007-01-01

    With the push from policymakers, payers, and consumers for hospitals to make their prices public, healthcare executives need to recognize two central issues related to price transparency: 1) meaningful price transparency involves helping patients and consumers understand their financial obligation for an episode of care, and 2) price transparency is key to the most critical success strategy for healthcare providers: building trust. This article reviews the history of pricing and billing practices and explores why price transparency is not easily achieved in today's environment. Pricing is a mystery even to those of us who work in the field, yet despite its complexity, the call for price transparency is not going to go away. For transparency, the goal should be to establish a rational pricing system that is easily explainable and justified to all stakeholders. Healthcare executives must make pricing a priority, understand cost, develop a pricing philosophy, understand the overall revenue requirements, examine market conditions and prices, and set up systems for review. A rational process of price setting should enhance community trust. In this matter there is nothing less at stake than the hearts of our community members.

  4. The Price Is Right?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schaffhauser, Dian

    2012-01-01

    There's something about textbook prices that generates outrage in ways that other college expenses, such as housing and technology fees, don't. Maybe it's the shock felt by new students when faced with a $900 bill after getting their textbooks for free in K-12. Maybe it's the awful realization that $40,000 in tuition and board doesn't even cover…

  5. What Price Online Training?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ganzel, Rebecca

    1999-01-01

    Discusses the difficulties involved with pricing an online training course. Looks at such issues as the size of the marketplace, the ability to use the same course many times, the switch from time-centered to content-centered courses, the amount of time needed to complete a specific course, and the need for multimedia training materials. (JOW)

  6. 2050: A Pricing Odyssey

    SciTech Connect

    Faruqui, Ahmad

    2006-10-15

    The author uses the Rip Van Winkle approach favored by marketers to gaze, clear-eyed, into the future - say, the year 2050 - to visualize alternative demand-response possibilities. Dare we go California Dreamin' of a distant utopia - or is it inevitable that pricing myopia will keep us from attaining the fulfillment of many of our career goals? (author)

  7. Pricing Government Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Love, James

    1995-01-01

    Improvements in technology have increased the social and economic value of government information. This increase, combined with changes in information storage and dissemination cost, contributes to controversy over how government information should be disseminated and priced. Discussion includes economic concepts, rules and algorithms used by…

  8. Costing and pricing.

    PubMed

    Jones, T

    1993-01-01

    With spreadsheets at the ready, accountants in the NHS are waiting to apply the uniform costing methodology emerging from the National Steering Group on Costing. Before the money-number-crunchers hijack its eventual final report Costing for contracts, general managers need to work out the implications for their role in pricing services and contracts.

  9. The Price Is Right?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schaffhauser, Dian

    2012-01-01

    There's something about textbook prices that generates outrage in ways that other college expenses, such as housing and technology fees, don't. Maybe it's the shock felt by new students when faced with a $900 bill after getting their textbooks for free in K-12. Maybe it's the awful realization that $40,000 in tuition and board doesn't even cover…

  10. Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1975 Supplement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halstead, D. Kent

    Higher Education price in index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1975 are presented. The supplement is published yearly shortly after the fiscal year to which the latest data refer, and the index values refer to the entire year, not any specific month of the year. The basic study, "Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes," presents complete…

  11. Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra

    2014-12-01

    The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.

  12. Dark Spots on Titan

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2005-05-02

    This recent image of Titan reveals more complex patterns of bright and dark regions on the surface, including a small, dark, circular feature, completely surrounded by brighter material. During the two most recent flybys of Titan, on March 31 and April 16, 2005, Cassini captured a number of images of the hemisphere of Titan that faces Saturn. The image at the left is taken from a mosaic of images obtained in March 2005 (see PIA06222) and shows the location of the more recently acquired image at the right. The new image shows intriguing details in the bright and dark patterns near an 80-kilometer-wide (50-mile) crater seen first by Cassini's synthetic aperture radar experiment during a Titan flyby in February 2005 (see PIA07368) and subsequently seen by the imaging science subsystem cameras as a dark spot (center of the image at the left). Interestingly, a smaller, roughly 20-kilometer-wide (12-mile), dark and circular feature can be seen within an irregularly-shaped, brighter ring, and is similar to the larger dark spot associated with the radar crater. However, the imaging cameras see only brightness variations, and without topographic information, the identity of this feature as an impact crater cannot be conclusively determined from this image. The visual infrared mapping spectrometer, which is sensitive to longer wavelengths where Titan's atmospheric haze is less obscuring -- observed this area simultaneously with the imaging cameras, so those data, and perhaps future observations by Cassini's radar, may help to answer the question of this feature's origin. The new image at the right consists of five images that have been added together and enhanced to bring out surface detail and to reduce noise, although some camera artifacts remain. These images were taken with the Cassini spacecraft narrow-angle camera using a filter sensitive to wavelengths of infrared light centered at 938 nanometers -- considered to be the imaging science subsystem's best spectral filter

  13. Trends in Utility Green Pricing Programs (2004)

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, L.; Brown, E.

    2005-10-01

    In the early 1990s, only a handful of utilities offered their customers a choice of purchasing electricity generated from renewable energy sources. Today, nearly 600 utilities in regulated electricity markets--or almost 20% of all utilities nationally--provide their customers a "green power" option. Because some utilities offer programs in conjunction with cooperative associations or other publicly owned power entities, the number of distinct programs totals about 125. Through these programs, more than 40 million customers spanning 34 states have the ability to purchase renewable energy to meet some portion or all of their electricity needs--or make contributions to support the development of renewable energy resources. Typically, customers pay a premium above standard electricity rates for this service. This report presents year-end 2004 data on utility green pricing programs, and examines trends in consumer response and program implementation over time. The data in this report, which were obtained via a questionnaire distributed to utility green pricing program managers, can be used by utilities as benchmarks by which to gauge the success of their green power programs.

  14. Point of Connection Transmission Pricing in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soonee, S. K.; Barpanda, S. S.; Joshi, Mohit; Mishra, Nripen; Bhardwaj, Vaishally

    2013-05-01

    The National Electricity Policy (NEP) [1], issued by the Government of India, mandates transmission prices to be distance and direction sensitive and capture utilization of the network by each network user. In line with the mandate, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) [2] has issued Sharing of Interstate Transmission Charges and Losses Regulations, 2010 [3], to introduce point of connection (PoC)-based transmission pricing methodology in India. The methodology under the above regulations introduces one of the major reforms of its kind in the Indian power sector and seeks to share the total transmission charges in proportion to respective utilization of the transmission system by different entities. In this paper, the authors have enumerated their experience gained from the implementation of PoC-based transmission pricing regime in India. Authors have also discussed various issues encountered in the process of implementation and the methodology adopted.

  15. Saturn's Hot Spot

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    This is the sharpest image of Saturn's temperature emissions taken from the ground; it is a mosaic of 35 individual exposures made at the W.M. Keck I Observatory, Mauna Kea, Hawaii on Feb. 4, 2004.

    The images to create this mosaic were taken with infrared radiation. The mosaic was taken at a wavelength near 17.65 microns and is sensitive to temperatures in Saturn's upper troposphere. The prominent hot spot at the bottom of the image is right at Saturn's south pole. The warming of the southern hemisphere was expected, as Saturn was just past southern summer solstice, but the abrupt changes in temperature with latitude were not expected. The tropospheric temperature increases toward the pole abruptly near 70 degrees latitude from 88 to 89 Kelvin (-301 to -299 degrees Fahrenheit) and then to 91 Kelvin (-296 degrees Fahrenheit) right at the pole.

    Ring particles are not at a uniform temperature everywhere in their orbit around Saturn. The ring particles are orbiting clockwise in this image. Particles are coldest just after having cooled down in Saturn's shadow (lower left). As they orbit Saturn, the particles increase in temperature up to a maximum (lower right) just before passing behind Saturn again in shadow.

    A small section of the ring image is missing because of incomplete mosaic coverage during the observing sequence.

  16. Oil prices and world inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Sheehan, R.G.; Kelly, N.

    1983-06-01

    This paper addresses the nature of the causal relationships between oil prices and US inflation using a procedure developed by Granger to assess causality or, more precisely stated, informativeness. The results confirm that higher oil prices have increased the US wholesale price index (WPI). The results also support OPEC's contention that their price increases have, in part, been a result of worldwide inflation. 9 references, 2 tables.

  17. Developing a consumer pricing strategy.

    PubMed

    Sturm, Arthur; Tiedemann, Frank

    2013-05-01

    Healthcare providers can learn a variety of pricing lessons from the retail market: For providers, wholesale pricing--"the price to play"--alone is not enough. Once a hospital or health system chooses a market position, the provider creates an expectation that must be met-consistently. Consumer loyalty is fluid, and the price of care or service is not always the motivator for choosing one organization over another; intangibles such as location and level of customer service also drive purchasing decisions.

  18. Fuel Price Effects on Readiness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-01

    beginning of FY 2005. Note that the surplus/ deficit measure ignores the effects of OSD price change mitigation activity as well as any supplemental... Deficit 15 use of fuel will have to be curtailed. Because the price difference has usually resulted in a liability, and because assets are not...the budgeted price, and plus signs represent prices that were lower, referring to whether they caused a deficit or surplus for the Services. Only in

  19. Next Day Price Forecasting in Deregulated Market by Combination of Artificial Neural Network and ARIMA Time Series Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Areekul, Phatchakorn; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Urasaki, Naomitsu; Yona, Atsushi

    Electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to power producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets, when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities, respectively. This paper proposed a method to predict hourly electricity prices for next-day electricity markets by combination methodology of ARIMA and ANN models. The proposed method is examined on the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), New South Wales regional in year 2006. Comparison of forecasting performance with the proposed ARIMA, ANN and combination (ARIMA-ANN) models are presented. Empirical results indicate that an ARIMA-ANN model can improve the price forecasting accuracy.

  20. A roof over your head; house price peaks in the UK and Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richmond, Peter

    2007-02-01

    We analyse, following recent work of Roehner, changes in house prices for both the UK and Ireland. We conclude that prices in the UK/London have reached a tipping point and relative to inflation are set to fall over the next few years. House prices (again relative to inflation) in Ireland are shown to have broken away from the more moderate rises found in the provinces of mainland UK, and Dublin seems to have emerged as another global ‘hot’ spot. An evolution similar to that in London can be anticipated.

  1. Single spots, unipolar magnetic regions, and pairs of spots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akasofu, S.-I.

    2014-06-01

    McIntosh (1981) noted that sunspot pairs appear preferentially near the boundary of unipolar magnetic (UM) regions of opposite polarity. A large number of solar magnetograms from the Mount Wilson Observatory and the Kitt Peak Observatory during fairly quiet periods are examined to confirm his finding. In this study, it is also found collaterally that positive single spots appear in a positive UM region and vice versa. It is suggested thus that a pair of spots of opposite polarity is formed because two single spots develop in the vicinity of the boundary (the neutral line) of two UM regions of opposite polarity for polarity arrangement appropriate to the Hale law, namely, the Hale boundary. For these reasons, it is suggested that single spots and UM regions have significant meaning in solar magnetism.

  2. Pricing of GPO Sales Publications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwarzkopf, LeRoy C.

    This report analyzes the pricing policy of the Government Printing Office (GPO) for publications sold to the public. It discusses the sharp rise in prices for GPO sales publications from November 1972 through 1975. This is a detailed report which expands on the summary report prepared by the author as chairman of the Pricing Subcommittee, GPO…

  3. Price Discrimination: A Classroom Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aguiló, Paula; Sard, Maria; Tugores, Maria

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe a classroom experiment aimed at familiarizing students with different types of price discrimination (first-, second-, and third-degree price discrimination). During the experiment, the students were asked to decide what tariffs to set as monopolists for each of the price discrimination scenarios under…

  4. Price Discrimination: A Classroom Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aguiló, Paula; Sard, Maria; Tugores, Maria

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe a classroom experiment aimed at familiarizing students with different types of price discrimination (first-, second-, and third-degree price discrimination). During the experiment, the students were asked to decide what tariffs to set as monopolists for each of the price discrimination scenarios under…

  5. Personal Computer Price and Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, Walt

    1993-01-01

    Discusses personal computer price trends since 1986; describes offerings and prices for four direct-market suppliers, i.e., Dell CompuAdd, PC Brand, and Gateway 2000; and discusses overall value and price/performance ratios. Tables and graphs chart value over time. (EA)

  6. China, India demand cushions prices

    SciTech Connect

    Boyle, M.

    2006-11-15

    Despite the hopes of coal consumers, coal prices did not plummet in 2006 as demand stayed firm. China and India's growing economies, coupled with solid supply-demand fundamentals in North America and Europe, and highly volatile prices for alternatives are likely to keep physical coal prices from wide swings in the coming year.

  7. Personal Computer Price and Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, Walt

    1993-01-01

    Discusses personal computer price trends since 1986; describes offerings and prices for four direct-market suppliers, i.e., Dell CompuAdd, PC Brand, and Gateway 2000; and discusses overall value and price/performance ratios. Tables and graphs chart value over time. (EA)

  8. The Pricing of Economics Books.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laband, David; Hudson, John

    2003-01-01

    Examines the pricing and other characteristics of books. Notes substantial increases in book prices between 2000 and 1985 data. Suggests a major factor is the increasing importance of foreign presses that sell books at higher prices. Indicates that discount on paperbacks appear to have been relatively stable in the two years studied. (JEH)

  9. Design and analysis of electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sioshansi, Ramteen Mehr

    Restructured competitive electricity markets rely on designing market-based mechanisms which can efficiently coordinate the power system and minimize the exercise of market power. This dissertation is a series of essays which develop and analyze models of restructured electricity markets. Chapter 2 studies the incentive properties of a co-optimized market for energy and reserves that pays reserved generators their implied opportunity cost---which is the difference between their stated energy cost and the market-clearing price for energy. By analyzing the market as a competitive direct revelation mechanism we examine the properties of efficient equilibria and demonstrate that generators have incentives to shade their stated costs below actual costs. We further demonstrate that the expected energy payments of our mechanism is less than that in a disjoint market for energy only. Chapter 3 is an empirical validation of a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. By comparing theoretically optimal supply functions and actual generation offers into the Texas spot balancing market, we show the SFE to fit the actual behavior of the largest generators in market. This not only serves to validate the model, but also demonstrates the extent to which firms exercise market power. Chapters 4 and 5 examine equity, incentive, and efficiency issues in the design of non-convex commitment auctions. We demonstrate that different near-optimal solutions to a central unit commitment problem which have similar-sized optimality gaps will generally yield vastly different energy prices and payoffs to individual generators. Although solving the mixed integer program to optimality will overcome such issues, we show that this relies on achieving optimality of the commitment---which may not be tractable for large-scale problems within the allotted timeframe. We then simulate and compare a competitive benchmark for a market with centralized and self commitment in order to bound the efficiency

  10. The Nordic energy market model an electricity power exchange across national borders

    SciTech Connect

    Randen, H.; Andersen, J.H.

    1998-07-01

    As a first step towards a Nordic Power Exchange the Swedish and the Norwegian electricity market were merged into one free trade area. Norwegian and Swedish participants trade on equal terms on the market. Finnish and Danish participants trade on special terms towards the common Norwegian-Swedish free trade area. Finland will be included in the free trade area in 1998. Nord Pool is responsible for two markets. The Spot Market is the Nordic market for physical delivery power. In this market participants trade power contracts for next-day delivery. A price is determined for each hour based on bids and offer from the participants. The Spot Market serves as reference price for Nord Pool's Futures and Forward Market and reference price in the bilateral wholesale market. The Futures and Forward Markets are financial markets for price hedging and risk management. Through these market the participants can hedge purchase and sale of power within a time horizon of up to three years. In the bilateral wholesale market there is a high trade activity of financial contracts that are standardized in the same manner as Nord Pools forwards. Nord Pool has therefore established a clearing service where contracts that are traded on bilateral basis can be cleared through Nord Pool and with Nord Pool as counterpart. More than 200 participants from Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and England trade through Nord Pool. A general goal is to develop the market to include all four nordic countries in one common free trade area in close co-operation with the power business in the countries. There are different conditions for competition in the four countries, and much coordinating work is therefore still left to be done.

  11. Spot Welding of Honeycomb Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohal, V.

    2017-08-01

    Honeycomb structures are used to prepare meals water jet cutting machines for textile. These honeycomb structures are made of stainless steel sheet thickness of 0.1-0.2 mm. Corrugated sheet metal strips are between two gears with special tooth profile. Hexagonal cells for obtaining these strips are welded points between them. Spot welding device is three electrodes in the upper part, which carries three welding points across the width of the strip of corrugated sheet metal. Spot welding device filled with press and advance mechanisms. The paper presents the values of the regime for spot welding.

  12. Patients' views on price shopping and price transparency.

    PubMed

    Semigran, Hannah L; Gourevitch, Rebecca; Sinaiko, Anna D; Cowling, David; Mehrotra, Ateev

    2017-06-01

    Driven by the growth of high deductibles and price transparency initiatives, patients are being encouraged to search for prices before seeking care, yet few do so. To understand why this is the case, we interviewed individuals who were offered access to a widely used price transparency website through their employer. Qualitative interviews. We interviewed individuals enrolled in a preferred provider organization product through their health plan about their experience using the price transparency tool (if they had done so), their past medical experiences, and their opinions on shopping for care. All interviews were transcribed and manually coded using a thematic coding guide. In general, respondents expressed frustration with healthcare costs and had a positive opinion of the idea of price shopping in theory, but 2 sets of barriers limited their ability to do so in reality. The first was the salience of searching for price information. For example, respondents recognized that due to their health plan benefits design, they would not save money by switching to a lower-cost provider. Second, other factors were more important than price for respondents when choosing a provider, including quality and loyalty to current providers. We found a disconnect between respondents' enthusiasm for price shopping and their reported use of a price transparency tool to shop for care. However, many did find the tool useful for other purposes, including checking their claims history. Addressing the barriers to price shopping identified by respondents can help inform ongoing and future price transparency initiatives.

  13. Monthly stumpage prices for the Pacific Northwest.

    Treesearch

    Richard W. Haynes

    1991-01-01

    Seasonal variation is found in monthly stumpage price data. Seasonal adjustments indicate that monthly adjustments improve the utility of estimates of monthly stumpage prices. Comparisons of adjusted and unadjusted prices suggest that the unadjusted price series are reasonably robust.

  14. Visualizations for Real-time Pricing Demonstration

    SciTech Connect

    Marinovici, Maria C.; Hammerstrom, Janelle L.; Widergren, Steven E.; Dayley, Greg K.

    2014-10-13

    In this paper, the visualization tools created for monitoring the operations of a real-time pricing demonstration system that runs at a distribution feeder level are presented. The information these tools provide gives insights into demand behavior from automated price responsive devices, distribution feeder characteristics, impact of weather on system’s development, and other significant dynamics. Given the large number of devices that bid into a feeder-level real-time electricity market, new techniques are explored to summarize the present state of the system and contrast that with previous trends as well as future projections. To better understand the system behavior and correctly inform decision-making procedures, effective visualization of the data is imperative.

  15. Cost Validation Using PRICE H

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jack, John; Kwan, Eric; Wood, Milana

    2011-01-01

    PRICE H was introduced into the JPL cost estimation tool set circa 2003. It became more available at JPL when IPAO funded the NASA-wide site license for all NASA centers. PRICE H was mainly used as one of the cost tools to validate proposal grassroots cost estimates. Program offices at JPL view PRICE H as an additional crosscheck to Team X (JPL Concurrent Engineering Design Center) estimates. PRICE H became widely accepted ca, 2007 at JPL when the program offices moved away from grassroots cost estimation for Step 1 proposals. PRICE H is now one of the key cost tools used for cost validation, cost trades, and independent cost estimates.

  16. Cost Validation Using PRICE H

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jack, John; Kwan, Eric; Wood, Milana

    2011-01-01

    PRICE H was introduced into the JPL cost estimation tool set circa 2003. It became more available at JPL when IPAO funded the NASA-wide site license for all NASA centers. PRICE H was mainly used as one of the cost tools to validate proposal grassroots cost estimates. Program offices at JPL view PRICE H as an additional crosscheck to Team X (JPL Concurrent Engineering Design Center) estimates. PRICE H became widely accepted ca, 2007 at JPL when the program offices moved away from grassroots cost estimation for Step 1 proposals. PRICE H is now one of the key cost tools used for cost validation, cost trades, and independent cost estimates.

  17. Evaluation of evolving residential electricity tariffs

    SciTech Connect

    Lai, Judy; DeForest, Nicholas; Kiliccote, Sila; Stadler, Michael; Marnay, Chris; Donadee, Jon

    2011-05-15

    Residential customers in California's Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) territory have seen several electricity rate structure changes in the past decade. This poster: examines the history of the residential pricing structure and key milestones; summarizes and analyzes the usage between 2006 and 2009 for different baseline/climate areas; discusses the residential electricity Smart Meter roll out; and compares sample bills for customers in two climates under the current pricing structure and also the future time of use (TOU) structure.

  18. Cost and Price Collaboration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-30

    and individual relationships. This paper examines the state of current collaboration between price and cost analysts in four Army ground vehicle...detailed costs for labor, material, and overhead, but the CSDRs also provide costs by a standardized detailed work breakdown structure. Currently , this...information in addition to the PNMs that supported their cost and budgeting efforts. Current Contractor Rates enabled the estimation of current

  19. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  20. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  1. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  2. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  3. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  4. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.53 Announcement of class prices... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices (as applicable to...

  5. Weird Warm Spot on Exoplanet

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2010-10-19

    This frame from an animation based on NASA Spitzer Space Telescope data illustrates an unexpected warm spot on the surface of a gaseous exoplanet.The bright orange patches are the hottest part of the planet.

  6. Weird Warm Spot on Exoplanet

    NASA Image and Video Library

    This animation illustrates an unexpected warm spot on the surface of a gaseous exoplanet. NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope discovered that the hottest part of the planet, shown here as bright, orange...

  7. Center Spot: Shoe Box Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoffman, Jan

    1976-01-01

    This is the second "Center Spot" devoted to Jan Hoffman's "Shoe Box Science," a program that organizes manipulative materials so that children can identify, describe, order, construct, name and distinguish on their own.

  8. Cross-correlations between price and volume in Chinese gold markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Jiang, Wei; Ma, Guofeng

    2016-06-01

    We apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlation behaviors between price and volume in Chinese gold spot and futures markets. Qualitatively, we find that the price and volume series are significantly cross-correlated using the cross-correlation test statistics Qcc(m) and the ρDCCA coefficients. Quantitatively, by employing the MF-DCCA analysis, we find that there is a power-law cross-correlation and significant multifractal features between price and volume in gold spot and futures markets. Furthermore, by comparing the multifractality of the original series to the shuffled and surrogated series, we find that, for the gold spot market, the main contribution of multifractality is fat-tail distribution; for the gold futures market, both long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions play important roles in the contribution of multifractality. Finally, by employing the method of rolling windows, we undertake further investigation into the time-varying features of the cross-correlations between price and volume. We find that for both spot and futures markets, the cross-correlations are anti-persistent in general. In the short term, the cross-correlation shows obvious fluctuations due to exogenous shocks while, in the long term, the relationship tends to be at a metastable level due to the dynamic mechanism.

  9. Pricing structures in US coal supply contracts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kacker, Kanishka

    The subject of my dissertation is the study of coal procurement by electric utilities in the US over 2 decades, from 1979 to 2000. Energy markets are typically characterized by severe contracting problems. Buyers and sellers therefore employ various instruments, such as contract length or complex pricing arrangements, to restrict these problems. Relationship specific investment, wherein buyers make investments specific to their suppliers, has been advanced as a prominent explanation for contractual length. Investment decisions are however endogenous in length or pricing, making causal identification of the role of investment specificity difficult. In my first chapter, I attempt a resolution. I use the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment as an exogenous shifter of the extent of relationship specific investment. A key feature of the Amendment's design helps me define a difference-in-difference model arguably free of the endogeneity issues discussed above. I find that the plants forced into switching - Phase I plants located in the US Midwest - are more likely to choose fixed price contracts than those that were not. Further they also write contracts of shorter terms, with the reduction being approximately 30%. Considerably little is known about the performance implications of contractual choices. These form the basis for Chapter 2. Here I find prices to be lower, by between 5% to 20% of the total transaction price, but the probability of renegotiation higher, under fixed price contracts than under escalator or cost-plus contracts. Contract choices appear consistent with a trade-off between establishing incentives ex-ante and lowering negotiation costs ex-post, with relationship specific investments in particular making such a trade-off compelling. Chapter 3 considers the regulatory environment these utilities were subject to. Both incentive based regulation as well as the restructuring of electricity generation are smaller in comparison to relationship specific investment

  10. Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  11. Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices. PMID:24429767

  12. Trading network predicts stock price.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  13. Lead and the London Metal Exchange — a happy marriage? The outlook for prices and pricing issues confronting the lead industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keen, A.

    The outlook for the supply-demand balance for refined lead is addressed and takes into account the growing non-fundamental forces on price determination. The market for refined lead is presently experiencing its first year of surplus since the major crisis of the early 1990s. Earlier in the decade, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and recession in developed economies led to a significant rise in London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks. An acceleration absorbed these stocks in an 18-month period in the mid-1990s, and LME lead prices reacted to the market deficit by peaking above US900. Since then the market has balanced, yet prices have declined steadily to less that 50% of their peak levels. It is argued that, on fundamental grounds, prices have fallen below justified levels. As much of the reason for this depression between 1997 and 1999 has been the generally depressive effect of the Asian economic crisis on financial markets, the level of lead prices may now be due for a correction. Other metals have begun to increase during the first half of 1999 and lead, given its neutral fundamental outlook, is now poised to participate in the generally more buoyant moods across LME metals. An increase of approximately 10% in average LME 3-month settlement prices is forecast and will result in annual average prices of US 570/tonne over the course of 1999. Monthly averages and spot prices are predicted to exceed this level, particularly during peak third-quarter demand.

  14. Price-Anderson Law - reports on Price-Anderson issues

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1985-01-01

    Five of the six papers in this study are by experts outside the nuclear industry, and deal with fear, risk, and risk management as they apply to the review of the Price-Anderson Act. The purpose of the Act is to encourage private enterprise to develop a reliable source of electric power and to protect the public from the financial consequences of injury or damage that may occur during the process. The titles of the five papers are: (1) the effects of ionizing radiation on human health, (2) proof of causation through expert opinion evidence in low-level radiation cases, (3) a critical review of the probability of causation method, (4) the nuclear liability claims experience of the nuclear insurance pools, (5) review of nuclear liability compensation systems applicable to reactors outside the United States, and (6) the economic foundations of limited liability for nuclear reactor accidents. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the papers for EDB, EPA, and INS.

  15. Electric power monthly, July 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-10-13

    The Electric Power Monthly (EPM) is prepared by the Electric Power Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); Department of Energy. The purpose of this publication is to provide energy decisionmakers with accurate and timely information. The EPM presents monthly summaries of electric utility statistics at the national, Census division, and State level for net generation, fuel consumption, fuel stocks, quantity and quality of fuel, cost of fuel, electricity sales, and retail prices of electricity. Quantity, quality, and cost of fuel data lag the net generation, fuel consumption, fuel stocks, electricity sales, and retail prices data by 1 month. This difference in reporting appears in the national, Census division, and State level tables. However, at the plant level, all statistics presented are for the earlier month for the purpose of comparison.

  16. Impact of External Price Referencing on Medicine Prices – A Price Comparison Among 14 European Countries

    PubMed Central

    Leopold, Christine; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje Katja; Seyfang, Leonhard; Vogler, Sabine; de Joncheere, Kees; Laing, Richard Ogilvie; Leufkens, Hubert

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: This study aims to examine the impact of external price referencing (EPR) on on-patent medicine prices, adjusting for other factors that may affect price levels such as sales volume, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, total pharmaceutical expenditure (TPE), and size of the pharmaceutical industry. Methods: Price data of 14 on-patent products, in 14 European countries in 2007 and 2008 were obtained from the Pharmaceutical Price Information Service of the Austrian Health Institute. Based on the unit ex-factory prices in EURO, scaled ranks per country and per product were calculated. For the regression analysis the scaled ranks per country and product were weighted; each country had the same sum of weights but within a country the weights were proportional to its sales volume in the year (data obtained from IMS Health). Taking the scaled ranks, several statistical analyses were performed by using the program “R”, including a multiple regression analysis (including variables such as GDP per capita and national industry size). Results: This study showed that on average EPR as a pricing policy leads to lower prices. However, the large variation in price levels among countries using EPR confirmed that the price level is not only driven by EPR. The unadjusted linear regression model confirms that applying EPR in a country is associated with a lower scaled weighted rank (p=0.002). This interaction persisted after inclusion of total pharmaceutical expenditure per capita and GDP per capita in the final model. Conclusions: The study showed that for patented products, prices are in general lower in case the country applied EPR. Nevertheless substantial price differences among countries that apply EPR could be identified. Possible explanations could be found through a correlation between pharmaceutical industry and the scaled price ranks. In conclusion, we found that implementing external reference pricing could lead to lower prices. PMID

  17. Finding the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices using a wavelet-based network approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, Xiaoliang; An, Haizhong; Sun, Xiaoqi; Huang, Xuan; Gao, Xiangyun

    2016-04-01

    The globalization and regionalization of crude oil trade inevitably give rise to the difference of crude oil prices. The understanding of the pattern of the crude oil prices' mutual propagation is essential for analyzing the development of global oil trade. Previous research has focused mainly on the fuzzy long- or short-term one-to-one propagation of bivariate oil prices, generally ignoring various patterns of periodical multivariate propagation. This study presents a wavelet-based network approach to help uncover the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices in a joint time-frequency period. The weekly oil spot prices of the OPEC member states from June 1999 to March 2011 are adopted as the sample data. First, we used wavelet analysis to find different subseries based on an optimal decomposing scale to describe the periodical feature of the original oil price time series. Second, a complex network model was constructed based on an optimal threshold selection to describe the structural feature of multivariable oil prices. Third, Bayesian network analysis (BNA) was conducted to find the probability causal relationship based on periodical structural features to describe the various patterns of periodical multivariable propagation. Finally, the significance of the leading and intermediary oil prices is discussed. These findings are beneficial for the implementation of periodical target-oriented pricing policies and investment strategies.

  18. Economics of electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdmann, G.

    2015-08-01

    The following text is an introduction into the economic theory of electricity supply and demand. The basic approach of economics has to reflect the physical peculiarities of electric power that is based on the directed movement of electrons from the minus pole to the plus pole of a voltage source. The regular grid supply of electricity is characterized by a largely constant frequency and voltage. Thus, from a physical point of view electricity is a homogeneous product. But from an economic point of view, electricity is not homogeneous. Wholesale electricity prices show significant fluctuations over time and between regions, because this product is not storable (in relevant quantities) and there may be bottlenecks in the transmission and distribution grids. The associated non-homogeneity is the starting point of the economic analysis of electricity markets.

  19. Trends in Utility Green Pricing Programs (2005)

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, Lori; Brown, Elizabeth

    2006-10-01

    In the early 1990s, only a handful of utilities offered their customers a choice of purchasing electricity generated from renewable energy sources. Today, more than 600 utilities—or about 20% of all utilities nationally—provide their customers a “green power” option. Because some utilities offer programs in conjunction with cooperative associations or other publicly owned power entities, the number of distinct programs totals more than 130. Through these programs, more than 50 million customers have the ability to purchase renewable energy to meet some portion or all of their electricity needs—or make contributions to support the development of renewable energy resources. Typically, customers pay a premium above standard electricity rates for this service. This report presents year-end 2005 data on utility green pricing programs, and examines trends in consumer response and program implementation over time. The data in this report, which were obtained via a questionnaire distributed to utility green pricing program managers, can be used by utilities to benchmark the success of their green power programs.

  20. Determination of zero-coupon and spot rates from treasury data by maximum entropy methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gzyl, Henryk; Mayoral, Silvia

    2016-08-01

    An interesting and important inverse problem in finance consists of the determination of spot rates or prices of the zero coupon bonds, when the only information available consists of the prices of a few coupon bonds. A variety of methods have been proposed to deal with this problem. Here we present variants of a non-parametric method to treat with such problems, which neither imposes an analytic form on the rates or bond prices, nor imposes a model for the (random) evolution of the yields. The procedure consists of transforming the problem of the determination of the prices of the zero coupon bonds into a linear inverse problem with convex constraints, and then applying the method of maximum entropy in the mean. This method is flexible enough to provide a possible solution to a mispricing problem.

  1. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Hinsch, Michael; Kaddar, Miloud; Schmitt, Sarah

    2014-05-08

    Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms.The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased medicine price transparency and have the

  2. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. Methods We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. Results We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. Conclusion The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased

  3. Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

    2017-07-01

    With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

  4. Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Capacity Planning submodule

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a computer modeling system developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The NEMS produces integrated forecasts for energy markets in the United States by achieving a general equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand. Currently, for each year during the period from 1990 through 2010, the NEMS describes energy supply, conversion, consumption, and pricing. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The supply of electricity is a conversion activity since electricity is produced from other energy sources (e.g., fossil, nuclear, and renewable). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. The EMM consists of four main submodules: Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP), Electricity Fuel Dispatching (EFD), Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP), and Load and Demand-Side Management (LDSM). The ECP evaluates changes in the mix of generating capacity that are necessary to meet future demands for electricity and comply with environmental regulations. The EFD represents dispatching (i.e., operating) decisions and determines how to allocate available capacity to meet the current demand for electricity. Using investment expenditures from the ECP and operating costs from the EFD, the EFP calculates the price of electricity, accounting for state-level regulations involving the allocation of costs. The LDSM translates annual demands for electricity into distributions that describe hourly, seasonal, and time-of-day variations. These distributions are used by the EFD and the ECP to determine the quantity and types of generating capacity that are required to insure reliable and economical supplies of electricity. The EMM also represents nonutility suppliers and interregional and international transmission and trade. These activities are included in the EFD and the ECP.

  5. Development in characterization of resistance spot welding of aluminum

    SciTech Connect

    Hao, M.; Osman, K.A.; Boomer, D.R.

    1994-12-31

    Automotive interest in aluminum is growing rapidly in Europe and North America. Resistance spot-welding and weld-bonding will be key techniques in the volume production of aluminum vehicles. As part of the Alcan program to fully understand and characterize the spot-welding of aluminum, it was necessary to develop a custom data a cquisition system. This can measure important electrical and mechanical process variables in real-time during the spot-welding process. The data acquisition system developed can be used to monitor both single-phase AC and medium frequency (MF)(DC) (inverter) welding systems. it can log data including current, voltage, dynamic resistance, electrode displacement, and electrode force at rates of up to 150 KHz. An acquisition and analysis system has been developed that is capable of extracting spot weld signatures from logged process data. No single-process parameter has been found which can be used to predict weld quality for aluminum. Multiple linear regression methods, based on a number of spot-welding process data, can predict nugget diameter and static strength.

  6. Price sensitive demand with random sales price - a newsboy problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sankar Sana, Shib

    2012-03-01

    Up to now, many newsboy problems have been considered in the stochastic inventory literature. Some assume that stochastic demand is independent of selling price (p) and others consider the demand as a function of stochastic shock factor and deterministic sales price. This article introduces a price-dependent demand with stochastic selling price into the classical Newsboy problem. The proposed model analyses the expected average profit for a general distribution function of p and obtains an optimal order size. Finally, the model is discussed for various appropriate distribution functions of p and illustrated with numerical examples.

  7. Transit pricing and performance

    SciTech Connect

    Pickerell, D.H.; Abkowitz, M.; Tozzi, J.; McCord, M.R.; Cheng, L.H.

    1986-01-01

    The 9 papers in the report deal with the following areas: Federal operating assistance for urban mass transit; a decade of experience; transit route characteristics and headway-based reliability control; day-of-week and part-of-month variation in bus ridership; job satisfaction and transit operator recognition programs; results of a survey of muni operators; bus marketing costs: the experience of 18 section 15 reporters from 1981 to 1983; prospects for differential transit pricing in the United States; an initial analysis of total factor productivity for public-transit coordination of transportation resources: the Georgia experience; absenteeism, accidents, and attrition: part-time versus full-time bus drivers.

  8. Essays in financial transmission rights pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Posner, Barry

    This work examines issues in the pricing of financial transmission rights in the PJM market region. The US federal government is advocating the creation of large-scale, not-for-profit regional transmission organizations to increase the efficiency of the transmission of electricity. As a non-profit entity, PJM needs to allocate excess revenues collected as congestion rents, and the participants in the transmission markets need to be able to hedge their exposure to congestion rents. For these purposes, PJM has developed an instrument known as the financial transmission right (FTR). This research, utilizing a new data set assembled by the author, looks at two aspects of the FTR market. The first chapter examines the problem of forecasting congestion in a transmission grid. In the PJM FTR system firms bid in a competitive auction for FTRs that cover a period of one month. The auctions take place in the middle of the previous month; therefore firms have to forecast congestion rents for the period two to six weeks after the auction. The common methods of forecasting congestion are either time-series models or full-information engineering studies. In this research, the author develops a forecasting system that is more economically grounded than a simple time-series model, but requires less information than an engineering model. This method is based upon the arbitrage-cost methodology, whereby congesting is calculated as the difference of two non-observable variables: the transmission price difference that would exist in the total absence of transmission capacity between two nodes, and the ability of the existing transmission to reduced that price difference. If the ability to reduce the price difference is greater than the price difference, then the cost of electricity at each node will be the same, and congestion rent will be zero. If transmission capacity limits are binding on the flow of power, then a price difference persists and congestion rents exist. Three

  9. Microstructure and Execution Strategies in the Global Spot FX Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Anatoly B.

    Modern global inter-bank spot foreign exchange is essentially a limit-order market. Execution strategies in such a market may differ from those in markets that permit market orders. Here we describe microstructure and dynamics of the EBS market (EBS being an ICAP company is the leading institutional spot FX electronic brokerage). In order to illustrate specifics of the limit-order market, we discuss two problems. First, we describe our simulations of maker loss in case when the EUR/USD maker order is pegged to the market best price. We show that the expected maker loss is lower than the typical bid/offer spread. Second, we discuss the problem of optimal slicing of large orders for minimizing execution costs. We start with analysis of the expected execution times for the EUR/USD orders submitted at varying market depth. Then we introduce a loss function that accounts for the market volatility risk and the order's P/L in respect to the market best price. This loss function can be optimized for given risk aversion. Finally, we apply this approach to slicing large limit orders.

  10. Factors affecting the selling price of feeder cattle sold at Arkansas livestock auctions in 2005.

    PubMed

    Barham, B L; Troxel, T R

    2007-12-01

    Data were collected from 15 Arkansas livestock auctions to determine factors affecting selling price. Data included how calves were sold (single or groups), sex, breed or breed type, color, muscle thickness, horn status, frame score, fill, body condition, age, health, BW, and price. Data were randomly collected on 52,401 lots consisting of 105,542 calves. Selling prices for steers ($124.20 +/- 0.07), bulls ($117.93 +/- 0.12), and heifers ($112.81 +/- 0.07) were different from each other (P <0.001). Hereford x Charolais feeder calves sold for the highest price ($122.66 +/- 0.14) and Longhorns sold for the lowest price ($74.52 +/- 0.46). Yellow feeder cattle received the highest selling price ($96.47 +/- 0.12), and spotted or striped feeder cattle received the lowest price ($83.84 +/- 0.23). The selling price of singles was lower than the price for calves sold in groups of 6 or more ($117.26 +/- 0.06 vs. $122.61 +/- 0.21; P <0.001). For cattle classified as having muscle scores of 1, 2, 3, and 4, selling prices were $120.45 +/- 0.05, $111.31 +/- 0.09, $96.28 +/- 0.44, and $82.21 +/- 1.87, respectively. Polled feeder cattle sold for $118.57 +/- 0.05, and horned feeder cattle sold for $114.87 +/- 0.14 (P <0.001). Interactions (P <0.001) were detected between frame score and BW groups, and muscle score and BW groups on the selling price of cattle. A number of management and genetic factors affected the selling price of feeder cattle.

  11. Estimating elasticity for residential electricity demand in China.

    PubMed

    Shi, G; Zheng, X; Song, F

    2012-01-01

    Residential demand for electricity is estimated for China using a unique household level dataset. Household electricity demand is specified as a function of local electricity price, household income, and a number of social-economic variables at household level. We find that the residential demand for electricity responds rather sensitively to its own price in China, which implies that there is significant potential to use the price instrument to conserve electricity consumption. Electricity elasticities across different heterogeneous household groups (e.g., rich versus poor and rural versus urban) are also estimated. The results show that the high income group is more price elastic than the low income group, while rural families are more price elastic than urban families. These results have important policy implications for designing an increasing block tariff.

  12. Estimating Elasticity for Residential Electricity Demand in China

    PubMed Central

    Shi, G.; Zheng, X.; Song, F.

    2012-01-01

    Residential demand for electricity is estimated for China using a unique household level dataset. Household electricity demand is specified as a function of local electricity price, household income, and a number of social-economic variables at household level. We find that the residential demand for electricity responds rather sensitively to its own price in China, which implies that there is significant potential to use the price instrument to conserve electricity consumption. Electricity elasticities across different heterogeneous household groups (e.g., rich versus poor and rural versus urban) are also estimated. The results show that the high income group is more price elastic than the low income group, while rural families are more price elastic than urban families. These results have important policy implications for designing an increasing block tariff. PMID:22997492

  13. Pricing objectives in nonprofit hospitals.

    PubMed Central

    Bauerschmidt, A D; Jacobs, P

    1985-01-01

    This article reports on a survey of 60 financial managers of nonprofit hospitals in the eastern United States relating to the importance of a number of factors which influence their pricing decisions and the pricing objectives which they pursue. Among the results uncovered by the responses: that trustees are the single most important body in the price-setting process (doctors play a relatively unimportant role); that hospital pricing goals are more related to target net revenue than profit maximizing; and that regional factors seem to play an important role in management differences. PMID:4008272

  14. Pricing objectives in nonprofit hospitals.

    PubMed

    Bauerschmidt, A D; Jacobs, P

    1985-06-01

    This article reports on a survey of 60 financial managers of nonprofit hospitals in the eastern United States relating to the importance of a number of factors which influence their pricing decisions and the pricing objectives which they pursue. Among the results uncovered by the responses: that trustees are the single most important body in the price-setting process (doctors play a relatively unimportant role); that hospital pricing goals are more related to target net revenue than profit maximizing; and that regional factors seem to play an important role in management differences.

  15. Price transparency for medical devices.

    PubMed

    Pauly, Mark V; Burns, Lawton R

    2008-01-01

    Hospital buyers of medical devices contract with manufacturers with market power that sell differentiated products. The medical staff strongly influences hospitals' choice of devices. Sellers have sought to limit disclosure of transaction prices. Policy-makers have proposed legislation mandating disclosure, in the interest of greater transparency. We discuss why a manufacturer might charge different prices to different hospitals, the role that secrecy plays, and the consequences of secrecy versus disclosure. We argue that hospital-physician relationships are key to understanding what manufacturers gain from price discrimination. Price disclosure can catalyze a restructuring of those relationships, which, in turn, can improve hospital bargaining.

  16. Intermittency Models and Spot Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashworth, D. A.

    2007-01-01

    Experimental work at the University of Oxford Osney Lab has demonstrated characteristics of the late-stage transition process by the use of thin-film heat transfer gauges. The development of turbulent spots has been observed in a range of environments, including flat plates, turbine blade cascade tests and wake-passing experiments. These results were taken at Mach/Reynolds numbers and gas-to-wall temperature ratios representative of gas turbines. Analyses of the spot characteristics are consistent with measurements taken in low speed experiments, and support the Schubauer and Klebanoff type of turbulent spots. The addition of simulated wakes from upstream stages has been observed to be primarily superpositional for these tests.

  17. Hematozoa from the spotted owl.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, R J

    1989-10-01

    One hundred five spotted owls (Strix occidentalis) from seven populations and three subspecies were examined for hematozoa. Haemoproteus noctuae, H. syrnii, Leucocytozoon ziemanni, Trypanosoma avium, Atoxoplasma sp. and unidentified microfilariae were recorded. All northern (S. occidentalis caurina), California (S. occidentalis occidentalis) and Mexican (S. occidentalis lucida) spotted owls were infected with at least one hematozoan; 79% had multiple infections. Twenty-two percent of the owls were infected with as many as four species of parasites. There were significant differences in the prevalence of these species of parasites occurring among the five populations of northern and California spotted owls sampled in California. Haemoproteus noctuae, H. syrnii and Atoxoplasma sp. represented new host records for this host species.

  18. Poisson's spot and Gouy phase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Paz, I. G.; Soldati, Rodolfo; Cabral, L. A.; de Oliveira, J. G. G.; Sampaio, Marcos

    2016-12-01

    Recently there have been experimental results on Poisson spot matter-wave interferometry followed by theoretical models describing the relative importance of the wave and particle behaviors for the phenomenon. We propose an analytical theoretical model for Poisson's spot with matter waves based on the Babinet principle, in which we use the results for free propagation and single-slit diffraction. We take into account effects of loss of coherence and finite detection area using the propagator for a quantum particle interacting with an environment. We observe that the matter-wave Gouy phase plays a role in the existence of the central peak and thus corroborates the predominantly wavelike character of the Poisson's spot. Our model shows remarkable agreement with the experimental data for deuterium (D2) molecules.

  19. Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Li

    With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

  20. Laser based spot weld characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonietz, Florian; Myrach, Philipp; Rethmeier, Michael; Suwala, Hubert; Ziegler, Mathias

    2016-02-01

    Spot welding is one of the most important joining technologies, especially in the automotive industry. Hitherto, the quality of spot welded joints is tested mainly by random destructive tests. A nondestructive testing technique offers the benefit of cost reduction of the testing procedure and optimization of the fabrication process, because every joint could be examined. This would lead to a reduced number of spot welded joints, as redundancies could be avoided. In the procedure described here, the spot welded joint between two zinc-coated steel sheets (HX340LAD+Z100MB or HC340LA+ZE 50/50) is heated optically on one side. Laser radiation and flash light are used as heat sources. The melted zone, the so called "weld nugget" provides the mechanical stability of the connection, but also constitutes a thermal bridge between the sheets. Due to the better thermal contact, the spot welded joint reveals a thermal behavior different from the surrounding material, where the heat transfer between the two sheets is much lower. The difference in the transient thermal behavior is measured with time resolved thermography. Hence, the size of the thermal contact between the two sheets is determined, which is directly correlated to the size of the weld nugget, indicating the quality of the spot weld. The method performs well in transmission with laser radiation and flash light. With laser radiation, it works even in reflection geometry, thus offering the possibility of testing with just one-sided accessibility. By using heating with collimated laser radiation, not only contact-free, but also remote testing is feasible. A further convenience compared to similar thermographic approaches is the applicability on bare steel sheets without any optical coating for emissivity correction. For this purpose, a proper way of emissivity correction was established.

  1. Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1977 Supplement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halstead, D. Kent

    This 1977 supplement presents higher education price index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1977. The basic study presents complete descriptions of the indexes together with the index values and price data for fiscal years 1961 through 1974. It includes a discussion of index number theory and computation, explains the uses and limitations of…

  2. 129. Julian Price Memorial Park. Price Lake Dam. A concrete ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    129. Julian Price Memorial Park. Price Lake Dam. A concrete slab bridge crosses the top of the dam impounding a forty-seven acre lake. Looking west. - Blue Ridge Parkway, Between Shenandoah National Park & Great Smoky Mountains, Asheville, Buncombe County, NC

  3. Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1977 Supplement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halstead, D. Kent

    This 1977 supplement presents higher education price index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1977. The basic study presents complete descriptions of the indexes together with the index values and price data for fiscal years 1961 through 1974. It includes a discussion of index number theory and computation, explains the uses and limitations of…

  4. Developing Intuition for Prices in Euros: Rescaling or Relearning Prices?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marques, J. Frederico; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2004-01-01

    This article examines how numerical intuition for prices develops after a major change in currency. University students in Portugal (Study 1) and Austria (Study 2) made price estimates for 40 different items from November 2001 to June 2002, surrounding the time at which these countries switched to the euro. Overall results are more in accordance…

  5. Consumer food choices: the role of price and pricing strategies.

    PubMed

    Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; Waterlander, Wilma E; de Mul, Anika

    2011-12-01

    To study differences in the role of price and value in food choice between low-income and higher-income consumers and to study the perception of consumers about pricing strategies that are of relevance during grocery shopping. A cross-sectional study was conducted using structured, written questionnaires. Food choice motives as well as price perceptions and opinion on pricing strategies were measured. The study was carried out in point-of-purchase settings, i.e. supermarkets, fast-food restaurants and sports canteens. Adults (n 159) visiting a point-of-purchase setting were included. Price is an important factor in food choice, especially for low-income consumers. Low-income consumers were significantly more conscious of value and price than higher-income consumers. The most attractive strategies, according to the consumers, were discounting healthy food more often and applying a lower VAT (Value Added Tax) rate on healthy food. Low-income consumers differ in their preferences for pricing strategies. Since price is more important for low-income consumers we recommend mainly focusing on their preferences and needs.

  6. BEEST: Electric Vehicle Batteries

    SciTech Connect

    2010-07-01

    BEEST Project: The U.S. spends nearly a $1 billion per day to import petroleum, but we need dramatically better batteries for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (EV/PHEV) to truly compete with gasoline-powered cars. The 10 projects in ARPA-E’s BEEST Project, short for “Batteries for Electrical Energy Storage in Transportation,” could make that happen by developing a variety of rechargeable battery technologies that would enable EV/PHEVs to meet or beat the price and performance of gasoline-powered cars, and enable mass production of electric vehicles that people will be excited to drive.

  7. Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Mei; Wang, Yaqi; Gao, Cuixia

    2016-11-01

    Fluctuations in prices of natural gas significantly affect global economy. Therefore, the research on the characteristics of natural gas price fluctuations, turning points and its influencing cycle on the subsequent price series is of great significance. Global natural gas trade concentrates on three regional markets: the North American market, the European market and the Asia-Pacific market, with North America having the most developed natural gas financial market. In addition, perfect legal supervision and coordinated regulations make the North American market more open and more competitive. This paper focuses on the North American natural gas market specifically. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price time series is converted to a visibility graph network which provides a new direction for macro analysis of time series, and several indicators are investigated: degree and degree distribution, the average shortest path length and community structure. The internal mechanisms underlying price fluctuations are explored through the indicators. The results show that the natural gas prices visibility graph network (NGP-VGN) is of small-world and scale-free properties simultaneously. After random rearrangement of original price time series, the degree distribution of network becomes exponential distribution, different from the original ones. This means that, the original price time series is of long-range negative correlation fractal characteristic. In addition, nodes with large degree correspond to significant geopolitical or economic events. Communities correspond to time cycles in visibility graph network. The cycles of time series and the impact scope of hubs can be found by community structure partition.

  8. Pricing effects on food choices.

    PubMed

    French, Simone A

    2003-03-01

    Individual dietary choices are primarily influenced by such considerations as taste, cost, convenience and nutritional value of foods. The current obesity epidemic has been linked to excessive consumption of added sugars and fat, as well as to sedentary lifestyles. Fat and sugar provide dietary energy at very low cost. Food pricing and marketing practices are therefore an essential component of the eating environment. Recent studies have applied economic theories to changing dietary behavior. Price reduction strategies promote the choice of targeted foods by lowering their cost relative to alternative food choices. Two community-based intervention studies used price reductions to promote the increased purchase of targeted foods. The first study examined lower prices and point-of-purchase promotion on sales of lower fat vending machine snacks in 12 work sites and 12 secondary schools. Price reductions of 10%, 25% and 50% on lower fat snacks resulted in an increase in sales of 9%, 39% and 93%, respectively, compared with usual price conditions. The second study examined the impact of a 50% price reduction on fresh fruit and baby carrots in two secondary school cafeterias. Compared with usual price conditions, price reductions resulted in a four-fold increase in fresh fruit sales and a two-fold increase in baby carrot sales. Both studies demonstrate that price reductions are an effective strategy to increase the purchase of more healthful foods in community-based settings such as work sites and schools. Results were generalizable across various food types and populations. Reducing prices on healthful foods is a public health strategy that should be implemented through policy initiatives and industry collaborations.

  9. Weighted south-wide average pulpwood prices

    Treesearch

    James E. Granskog; Kevin D. Growther

    1991-01-01

    Weighted average prices provide a more accurate representation of regional pulpwood price trends when production volumes valy widely by state. Unweighted South-wide average delivered prices for pulpwood, as reported by Timber Mart-South, were compared to average annual prices weighted by each state's pulpwood production from 1977 to 1986. Weighted average prices...

  10. Is College Pricing Power Pro-Cyclical?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Altringer, Levi; Summers, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    We define pricing power as a college's ability to increase its net tuition revenue by raising its sticker-price for tuition. The greater is the positive effect of sticker-price increases on net tuition revenue, the greater is the pricing power. We gauge variation in the pricing power of private, non-profit baccalaureate colleges by estimating this…

  11. Is College Pricing Power Pro-Cyclical?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Altringer, Levi; Summers, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    We define pricing power as a college's ability to increase its net tuition revenue by raising its sticker-price for tuition. The greater is the positive effect of sticker-price increases on net tuition revenue, the greater is the pricing power. We gauge variation in the pricing power of private, non-profit baccalaureate colleges by estimating this…

  12. Periodical Prices: 1976-78 Update

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clasquin, F. F.

    1978-01-01

    Comparative data are given for periodical price changes for 1976-78. Tables include price changes in library rates for scientific literature; percent of total subscriptions processed and total expenditure for various periodical price ranges; comparisons of prices for domestic and foreign titles; and journal price ranges for selected subject…

  13. The role of benchmark crudes in crude oil pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Wildblood, P.

    1993-12-31

    Most of the world`s oil, whether sold on a spot basis or as part of a term contract, will be priced on a relationship with one or other of a small number of marker crude oils. Generally, the markers used are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Alaskan North Slope (ANS) for crude oil coming into North and South America; Dubai or Oman for crudes being delivered into the Far Eastern markets; and Brent for any crude being delivered into Europe. For a variety of reasons, over the laster two years, Brent blend has become more predominant in the pricing process for crude oils throughout the world. This has resulted in the fact that, directly or indirectly, Brent is now used to price approximately 65% of the world`s crude oil. So why is it that a crude oil with a comparatively small production base of around 700,000 barrels per day has now come to dominate the pricing of the lion`s share of the world`s crude oil? The answer to this question is discussed.

  14. Experimental Study of Ignition by Hot Spot in Internal Combustion Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Serruys, Max

    1938-01-01

    In order to carry out the contemplated study, it was first necessary to provide hot spots in the combustion chamber, which could be measured and whose temperature could be changed. It seemed difficult to realize both conditions working solely on the temperature of the cooling water in a way so as to produce hot spots on the cylinder wall capable of provoking autoignition. Moreover, in the majority of practical cases, autoignition is produced by the spark plug, one of the least cooled parts in the engine. The first procedure therefore did not resemble that which most generally occurs in actual engine operation. All of these considerations caused us to reproduce similar hot spots at the spark plugs. The hot spots produced were of two kinds and designated with the name of thermo-electric spark plug and of metallic hot spot.

  15. Airport Pricing Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pels, Eric; Verhoef, Erik T.

    2003-01-01

    Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various

  16. An option pricing theory explanation of the invasion of Kuwait

    SciTech Connect

    Muhtaseb, M.R.

    1995-12-31

    The objective of this paper is to explain the invasion of Kuwait by making an analogy between a call option and the Iraq-Kuwait situation before the invasion on August 2, 1990. A number of factors contributed to the issuance of a deep-in-the money European call option to Iraq against Kuwait. The underlying asset is the crude oil reserves under Kuwait. Price of crude oil is determined in world spot markets. The exercise price is equal to the cost of permanently annexing and retaining Kuwait. The volatility is measured by the annualized variance of the weekly rate of return of the spot price of crude oil. Time-to-expiration is equal to the time period between decision date and actual invasion date. Finally, since crude oil prices are quoted in U.S. dollars, the U.S. Treasury bill rate is assumed to be the risk-free rate. In a base-case scenario, Kuwait`s oil reserves amount to 94,500 million barrels valued at $18 a barrell in early February 1990 resulting in a market value of $1,701 billion. Because the cost of the war to Iraq is not known, we assume it is comparable to that of the U.S.-led coalition of $51.0 billion. Time-to-expiration is six months. The treasury bill rate in early 1990 was around 7.5 percent. Annualized standard deviation of weekly rates of return is 0.216. The value of Kuwait`s invasion option is $1,642.25 billion. Depending on the scenario, the value of this special option ranged between $1,450 billion and $3.624 billion. 10 refs., 1 tab.

  17. Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Panama.

    PubMed

    Estripeaut, Dora; Aramburú, María Gabriela; Sáez-Llorens, Xavier; Thompson, Herbert A; Dasch, Gregory A; Paddock, Christopher D; Zaki, Sherif; Eremeeva, Marina E

    2007-11-01

    We describe a fatal pediatric case of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in Panama, the first, to our knowledge, since the 1950s. Diagnosis was established by immunohistochemistry, PCR, and isolation of Rickettsia rickettsii from postmortem tissues. Molecular typing demonstrated strong relatedness of the isolate to strains of R. rickettsii from Central and South America.

  18. Jupiter Great Red Spot Region

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1996-09-26

    This mosaic of Jupiter Great Red Spot taken by NASA Voyager 1, shows the area around the northern boundary where a white cloud is seen which extends to east of the region. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00065

  19. Chapter 5: California spotted owls

    Treesearch

    S. Roberts; M. North

    2012-01-01

    California spotted owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) are habitat specialists that are strongly associated with late-successional forests. For nesting and roosting, they require large trees and snags embedded in a stand with a complex forest structure (Blakesley et al. 2005, Gutiérrez et al. 1992, Verner et al. 1992b). In...

  20. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Panama

    PubMed Central

    Estripeaut, Dora; Aramburú, María Gabriela; Sáez-Llorens, Xavier; Thompson, Herbert A.; Dasch, Gregory A.; Paddock, Christopher D.; Zaki, Sherif

    2007-01-01

    We describe a fatal pediatric case of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in Panama, the first, to our knowledge, since the 1950s. Diagnosis was established by immunohistochemistry, PCR, and isolation of Rickettsia rickettsii from postmortem tissues. Molecular typing demonstrated strong relatedness of the isolate to strains of R. rickettsii from Central and South America. PMID:18217566

  1. Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles

    PubMed Central

    Levine, Sheen S.; Apfelbaum, Evan P.; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L.; Zajac, Edward J.; Stark, David

    2014-01-01

    Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others’ decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity. PMID:25404313

  2. Option price and market instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  3. Pricing Films, Filmstrips and Records.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Epstein, Connie C.

    1984-01-01

    Examines pricing practices of major producers of educational materials: Weston Woods, Listening Library, Random House Educational Media, Live Oak Media, S&S Communications Group, Phoenix/BFA, Benchmark, and Churchill Films. Royalties, production and manufacturing costs, list prices, recoveries to producers, and marketing are noted. (EJS)

  4. Pricing Films, Filmstrips and Records.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Epstein, Connie C.

    1984-01-01

    Examines pricing practices of major producers of educational materials: Weston Woods, Listening Library, Random House Educational Media, Live Oak Media, S&S Communications Group, Phoenix/BFA, Benchmark, and Churchill Films. Royalties, production and manufacturing costs, list prices, recoveries to producers, and marketing are noted. (EJS)

  5. Price Discrimination: Lessons for Consumers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maynes, E. Scott

    1990-01-01

    Explains price and product discrimination, showing how intelligent consumers can achieve increased purchasing power of their income and discusses how consumer educators can explain this discrimination. Evaluates the pros and cons of price/product discrimination from the social viewpoint. (Author/JOW)

  6. Price Discrimination: Lessons for Consumers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maynes, E. Scott

    1990-01-01

    Explains price and product discrimination, showing how intelligent consumers can achieve increased purchasing power of their income and discusses how consumer educators can explain this discrimination. Evaluates the pros and cons of price/product discrimination from the social viewpoint. (Author/JOW)

  7. Export demand response in the Ontario electricity market

    SciTech Connect

    Peerbocus, Nash; Melino, Angelo

    2007-11-15

    Export responses to unanticipated price shocks can be a key contributing factor to the rapid mean reversion of electricity prices. The authors use event analysis - a technique more familiar from financial applications - to demonstrate how hourly export transactions respond to negative supply shocks in the Ontario electricity market. (author)

  8. Geographic market delineation in LMP electric power markets

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, John R.; Accordino, Megan H.

    2010-04-15

    The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has jurisdiction over sales of electric generation assets in the United States, and it has found that generation on the high-priced side of transmission constraints provides competition for generators on the low-priced side. This article shows that this reasoning is correct in locational marginal price (LMP) electric power markets now prevalent in the U.S. (author)

  9. Primer on electricity futures and other derivatives

    SciTech Connect

    Stoft, S.; Belden, T.; Goldman, C.; Pickle, S.

    1998-01-01

    Increased competition in bulk power and retail electricity markets is likely to lower electricity prices, but will also result in greater price volatility as the industry moves away from administratively determined, cost-based rates and encourages market-driven prices. Price volatility introduces new risks for generators, consumers, and marketers. Electricity futures and other derivatives can help each of these market participants manage, or hedge, price risks in a competitive electricity market. Futures contracts are legally binding and negotiable contracts that call for the future delivery of a commodity. In most cases, physical delivery does not take place, and the futures contract is closed by buying or selling a futures contract on or near the delivery date. Other electric rate derivatives include options, price swaps, basis swaps, and forward contracts. This report is intended as a primer for public utility commissioners and their staff on futures and other financial instruments used to manage price risks. The report also explores some of the difficult choices facing regulators as they attempt to develop policies in this area.

  10. Regional variations in US residential sector fuel prices: implications for development of building energy performance standards

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.; Secrest, T.J.

    1981-03-01

    The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for Energy Performance Standards for New Buildings presented life-cycle-cost based energy budgets for single-family detached residences. These energy budgets varied with regional climatic conditions but were all based on projections of national average prices for gas, oil and electricity. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking indicated that further analysis of the appropriateness of various price measures for use in setting the Standards was under way. This part of that ongoing analysis addresses the availability of fuel price projections, the variation in fuel prices and escalation rates across the US and the effects of aggregating city price data to the state, Region, or national level. The study only provides a portion of the information required to identify the best price aggregation level for developing of the standards. The research addresses some of the economic efficiency considerations necessary for design of a standard that affects heterogeneous regions. The first section discusses the effects of price variation among and within regions on the efficiency of resource allocation when a standard is imposed. Some evidence of the extreme variability in fuel prices across the US is presented. In the second section, time series, cross-sectional fuel price data are statistically analyzed to determine the similarity in mean fuel prices and price escalation rates when the data are treated at increasing levels of aggregation. The findings of this analysis are reported in the third section, while the appendices contain price distributions details. The last section reports the availability of price projections and discusses some EIA projections compared with actual prices.

  11. 19 CFR 351.414 - Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed export price).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Price, Fair Value, and Normal Value § 351.414 Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed... 19 Customs Duties 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Comparison of normal value with export price... value and, in an investigation, prices used as the basis for export price or constructed export price...

  12. 48 CFR 36.207 - Pricing fixed-price construction contracts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Pricing fixed-price... Contracting for Construction 36.207 Pricing fixed-price construction contracts. (a) Generally, firm-fixed... estimates. (c) Fixed-price contracts with economic price adjustment may be used if such a provision is...

  13. 48 CFR 36.207 - Pricing fixed-price construction contracts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Pricing fixed-price... Contracting for Construction 36.207 Pricing fixed-price construction contracts. (a) Generally, firm-fixed... estimates. (c) Fixed-price contracts with economic price adjustment may be used if such a provision is...

  14. 48 CFR 36.207 - Pricing fixed-price construction contracts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Pricing fixed-price... Contracting for Construction 36.207 Pricing fixed-price construction contracts. (a) Generally, firm-fixed... estimates. (c) Fixed-price contracts with economic price adjustment may be used if such a provision is...

  15. Charge-Spot Model for Electrostatic Forces in Simulation of Fine Particulates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walton, Otis R.; Johnson, Scott M.

    2010-01-01

    The charge-spot technique for modeling the static electric forces acting between charged fine particles entails treating electric charges on individual particles as small sets of discrete point charges, located near their surfaces. This is in contrast to existing models, which assume a single charge per particle. The charge-spot technique more accurately describes the forces, torques, and moments that act on triboelectrically charged particles, especially image-charge forces acting near conducting surfaces. The discrete element method (DEM) simulation uses a truncation range to limit the number of near-neighbor charge spots via a shifted and truncated potential Coulomb interaction. The model can be readily adapted to account for induced dipoles in uncharged particles (and thus dielectrophoretic forces) by allowing two charge spots of opposite signs to be created in response to an external electric field. To account for virtual overlap during contacts, the model can be set to automatically scale down the effective charge in proportion to the amount of virtual overlap of the charge spots. This can be accomplished by mimicking the behavior of two real overlapping spherical charge clouds, or with other approximate forms. The charge-spot method much more closely resembles real non-uniform surface charge distributions that result from tribocharging than simpler approaches, which just assign a single total charge to a particle. With the charge-spot model, a single particle may have a zero net charge, but still have both positive and negative charge spots, which could produce substantial forces on the particle when it is close to other charges, when it is in an external electric field, or when near a conducting surface. Since the charge-spot model can contain any number of charges per particle, can be used with only one or two charge spots per particle for simulating charging from solar wind bombardment, or with several charge spots for simulating triboelectric charging

  16. Jupiter Full Disk with Great Red Spot

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1999-03-13

    This photo, taken on Jan. 9, 1979 by NASA Voyager 1, is dominated by the Great Red Spot. Swirling, storm-like features possibly associated with wind shear can be seen both to the left and above the Red Spot.

  17. False Color Mosaic Great Red Spot

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1997-09-07

    False color representation of Jupiter Great Red Spot GRS taken by NASA Galileo imaging system. The Great Red Spot appears pink and the surrounding region blue because of the particular color coding used in this representation.

  18. Turbulent Region Near Great Red Spot

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2000-12-30

    This image is a still frame, created from images taken by NASA Cassini spacecraft, shows a turbulent region west of Jupiter Great Red Spot. The small, bright white spots are believed to be thunderstorms.

  19. Nash equilibrium strategy in the deregulated power industry and comparing its lost welfare with Iran wholesale electricity market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mousavi, Seyed Hosein; Nazemi, Ali; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

    2016-07-01

    With the increasing use of different types of auctions in market designing, modeling of participants' behaviors to evaluate the market structure is one of the main discussions in the studies related to the deregulated power industries. In this article, we apply an approach of the optimal bidding behavior to the Iran wholesale electricity market as a restructured electric power industry and model how the participants of the market bid in the spot electricity market. The problem is formulated analytically using the Nash equilibrium concept composed of large numbers of players having discrete and very large strategy spaces. Then, we compute and draw supply curve of the competitive market in which all generators' proposed prices are equal to their marginal costs and supply curve of the real market in which the pricing mechanism is pay-as-bid. We finally calculate the lost welfare or inefficiency of the Nash equilibrium and the real market by comparing their supply curves with the competitive curve. We examine 3 cases on November 24 (2 cases) and July 24 (1 case), 2012. It is observed that in the Nash equilibrium on November 24 and demand of 23,487 MW, there are 212 allowed plants for the first case (plants are allowed to choose any quantity of generation except one of them that should be equal to maximum Power) and the economic efficiency or social welfare of Nash equilibrium is 2.77 times as much as the real market. In addition, there are 184 allowed plants for the second case (plants should offer their maximum power with different prices) and the efficiency or social welfare of Nash equilibrium is 3.6 times as much as the real market. On July 24 and demand of 42,421 MW, all 370 plants should generate maximum energy due to the high electricity demand that the economic efficiency or social welfare of the Nash equilibrium is about 2 times as much as the real market.

  20. Construction of Discrete Time Shadow Price

    SciTech Connect

    Rogala, Tomasz Stettner, Lukasz

    2015-12-15

    In the paper expected utility from consumption over finite time horizon for discrete time markets with bid and ask prices and strictly concave utility function is considered. The notion of weak shadow price, i.e. an illiquid price, depending on the portfolio, under which the model without bid and ask price is equivalent to the model with bid and ask price is introduced. Existence and the form of weak shadow price is shown. Using weak shadow price usual (called in the paper strong) shadow price is then constructed.