A Multi Agent Based Approach for Prehospital Emergency Management.

PubMed

Safdari, Reza; Shoshtarian Malak, Jaleh; Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Danesh Shahraki, Azimeh

2017-07-01

To demonstrate an architecture to automate the prehospital emergency process to categorize the specialized care according to the situation at the right time for reducing the patient mortality and morbidity. Prehospital emergency process were analyzed using existing prehospital management systems, frameworks and the extracted process were modeled using sequence diagram in Rational Rose software. System main agents were identified and modeled via component diagram, considering the main system actors and by logically dividing business functionalities, finally the conceptual architecture for prehospital emergency management was proposed. The proposed architecture was simulated using Anylogic simulation software. Anylogic Agent Model, State Chart and Process Model were used to model the system. Multi agent systems (MAS) had a great success in distributed, complex and dynamic problem solving environments, and utilizing autonomous agents provides intelligent decision making capabilities.  The proposed architecture presents prehospital management operations. The main identified agents are: EMS Center, Ambulance, Traffic Station, Healthcare Provider, Patient, Consultation Center, National Medical Record System and quality of service monitoring agent. In a critical condition like prehospital emergency we are coping with sophisticated processes like ambulance navigation health care provider and service assignment, consultation, recalling patients past medical history through a centralized EHR system and monitoring healthcare quality in a real-time manner. The main advantage of our work has been the multi agent system utilization. Our Future work will include proposed architecture implementation and evaluation of its impact on patient quality care improvement.

A Multi Agent Based Approach for Prehospital Emergency Management

PubMed Central

Safdari, Reza; Shoshtarian Malak, Jaleh; Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Danesh Shahraki, Azimeh

2017-01-01

Objective: To demonstrate an architecture to automate the prehospital emergency process to categorize the specialized care according to the situation at the right time for reducing the patient mortality and morbidity. Methods: Prehospital emergency process were analyzed using existing prehospital management systems, frameworks and the extracted process were modeled using sequence diagram in Rational Rose software. System main agents were identified and modeled via component diagram, considering the main system actors and by logically dividing business functionalities, finally the conceptual architecture for prehospital emergency management was proposed. The proposed architecture was simulated using Anylogic simulation software. Anylogic Agent Model, State Chart and Process Model were used to model the system. Results: Multi agent systems (MAS) had a great success in distributed, complex and dynamic problem solving environments, and utilizing autonomous agents provides intelligent decision making capabilities.  The proposed architecture presents prehospital management operations. The main identified agents are: EMS Center, Ambulance, Traffic Station, Healthcare Provider, Patient, Consultation Center, National Medical Record System and quality of service monitoring agent. Conclusion: In a critical condition like prehospital emergency we are coping with sophisticated processes like ambulance navigation health care provider and service assignment, consultation, recalling patients past medical history through a centralized EHR system and monitoring healthcare quality in a real-time manner. The main advantage of our work has been the multi agent system utilization. Our Future work will include proposed architecture implementation and evaluation of its impact on patient quality care improvement. PMID:28795061

Operational atmospheric modeling system CARIS for effective emergency response associated with hazardous chemical releases in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Cheol-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Park, Cheol-Jin; Na, Jin-Gyun

2004-03-01

The Chemical Accidents Response Information System (CARIS) was developed at the Center for Chemical Safety Management in South Korea in order to track and predict the dispersion of hazardous chemicals in the case of an accident or terrorist attack involving chemical companies. The main objective of CARIS is to facilitate an efficient emergency response to hazardous chemical accidents by rapidly providing key information in the decision-making process. In particular, the atmospheric modeling system implemented in CARIS, which is composed of a real-time numerical weather forecasting model and an air pollution dispersion model, can be used as a tool to forecast concentrations and to provide a wide range of assessments associated with various hazardous chemicals in real time. This article introduces the components of CARIS and describes its operational modeling system. Some examples of the operational modeling system and its use for emergency preparedness are presented and discussed. Finally, this article evaluates the current numerical weather prediction model for Korea.

Assessment and Evaluation of National Human Resource Development System Competitiveness in Emerging Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oh, HunSeok; Seo, DongIn; Kim, JuSeuk; Yoo, SangOk; Seong, HeeChang

2015-01-01

This study assessed and evaluated the competitiveness of national human resource development (NHRD) systems in emerging countries with potential for growth. The literature on emerging countries and NHRD systems was reviewed. The study developed a model mechanism with forty-one indices and nine sub-components for the NHRD system assessment in…

A task-based support architecture for developing point-of-care clinical decision support systems for the emergency department.

PubMed

Wilk, S; Michalowski, W; O'Sullivan, D; Farion, K; Sayyad-Shirabad, J; Kuziemsky, C; Kukawka, B

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to create a task-based support architecture for developing clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) that assist physicians in making decisions at the point-of-care in the emergency department (ED). The backbone of the proposed architecture was established by a task-based emergency workflow model for a patient-physician encounter. The architecture was designed according to an agent-oriented paradigm. Specifically, we used the O-MaSE (Organization-based Multi-agent System Engineering) method that allows for iterative translation of functional requirements into architectural components (e.g., agents). The agent-oriented paradigm was extended with ontology-driven design to implement ontological models representing knowledge required by specific agents to operate. The task-based architecture allows for the creation of a CDSS that is aligned with the task-based emergency workflow model. It facilitates decoupling of executable components (agents) from embedded domain knowledge (ontological models), thus supporting their interoperability, sharing, and reuse. The generic architecture was implemented as a pilot system, MET3-AE--a CDSS to help with the management of pediatric asthma exacerbation in the ED. The system was evaluated in a hospital ED. The architecture allows for the creation of a CDSS that integrates support for all tasks from the task-based emergency workflow model, and interacts with hospital information systems. Proposed architecture also allows for reusing and sharing system components and knowledge across disease-specific CDSSs.

Emergency department crowding in Singapore: Insights from a systems thinking approach.

PubMed

Schoenenberger, Lukas K; Bayer, Steffen; Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Mohanavalli, Rajagopal L; Lam, Sean Sw; Ong, Marcus Eh

2016-01-01

Emergency Department crowding is a serious and international health care problem that seems to be resistant to most well intended but often reductionist policy approaches. In this study, we examine Emergency Department crowding in Singapore from a systems thinking perspective using causal loop diagramming to visualize the systemic structure underlying this complex phenomenon. Furthermore, we evaluate the relative impact of three different policies in reducing Emergency Department crowding in Singapore: introduction of geriatric emergency medicine, expansion of emergency medicine training, and implementation of enhanced primary care. The construction of the qualitative causal loop diagram is based on consultations with Emergency Department experts, direct observation, and a thorough literature review. For the purpose of policy analysis, a novel approach, the path analysis, is applied. The path analysis revealed that both the introduction of geriatric emergency medicine and the expansion of emergency medicine training may be associated with undesirable consequences contributing to Emergency Department crowding. In contrast, enhancing primary care was found to be germane in reducing Emergency Department crowding; in addition, it has apparently no negative side effects, considering the boundary of the model created. Causal loop diagramming was a powerful tool for eliciting the systemic structure of Emergency Department crowding in Singapore. Additionally, the developed model was valuable in testing different policy options.

An integrated and dynamic optimisation model for the multi-level emergency logistics network in anti-bioterrorism system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Zhao, Lindu

2012-08-01

Demand for emergency resources is usually uncertain and varies quickly in anti-bioterrorism system. Besides, emergency resources which had been allocated to the epidemic areas in the early rescue cycle will affect the demand later. In this article, an integrated and dynamic optimisation model with time-varying demand based on the epidemic diffusion rule is constructed. The heuristic algorithm coupled with the MATLAB mathematical programming solver is adopted to solve the optimisation model. In what follows, the application of the optimisation model as well as a short sensitivity analysis of the key parameters in the time-varying demand forecast model is presented. The results show that both the model and the solution algorithm are useful in practice, and both objectives of inventory level and emergency rescue cost can be controlled effectively. Thus, it can provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with emergency rescue problem with uncertain demand, and offers an excellent reference when issues pertain to bioterrorism.

How alternative payment models in emergency medicine can benefit physicians, payers, and patients.

PubMed

Harish, Nir J; Miller, Harold D; Pines, Jesse M; Zane, Richard D; Wiler, Jennifer L

2017-06-01

While there has been considerable effort devoted to developing alternative payment models (APMs) for primary care physicians and for episodes of care beginning with inpatient admissions, there has been relatively little attention by payers to developing APMs for specialty ambulatory care, and no efforts to develop APMs that explicitly focus on emergency care. In order to ensure that emergency care is appropriately integrated and valued in future payment models, emergency physicians (EPs) must engage with the stakeholders within the broader health care system. In this article, we describe a framework for the development of APMs for emergency medicine and present four examples of APMs that may be applicable in emergency medicine. A better understanding of how APMs can work in emergency medicine will help EPs develop new APMs that improve the cost and quality of care, and leverage the value that emergency care brings to the system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Code orange: Towards transformational leadership of emergency management systems.

PubMed

Caro, Denis H J

2015-09-01

The 21(st) century calls upon health leaders to recognize and respond to emerging threats and systemic emergency management challenges through transformative processes inherent in the LEADS in a caring environment framework. Using a grounded theory approach, this qualitative study explores key informant perspectives of leaders in emergency management across Canada on pressing needs for relevant systemic transformation. The emerging model points to eight specific attributes of transformational leadership central to emergency management and suggests that contextualization of health leadership is of particular import. © 2015 The Canadian College of Health Leaders.

Exploratory analysis of real personal emergency response call conversations: considerations for personal emergency response spoken dialogue systems.

PubMed

Young, Victoria; Rochon, Elizabeth; Mihailidis, Alex

2016-11-14

The purpose of this study was to derive data from real, recorded, personal emergency response call conversations to help improve the artificial intelligence and decision making capability of a spoken dialogue system in a smart personal emergency response system. The main study objectives were to: develop a model of personal emergency response; determine categories for the model's features; identify and calculate measures from call conversations (verbal ability, conversational structure, timing); and examine conversational patterns and relationships between measures and model features applicable for improving the system's ability to automatically identify call model categories and predict a target response. This study was exploratory and used mixed methods. Personal emergency response calls were pre-classified according to call model categories identified qualitatively from response call transcripts. The relationships between six verbal ability measures, three conversational structure measures, two timing measures and three independent factors: caller type, risk level, and speaker type, were examined statistically. Emergency medical response services were the preferred response for the majority of medium and high risk calls for both caller types. Older adult callers mainly requested non-emergency medical service responders during medium risk situations. By measuring the number of spoken words-per-minute and turn-length-in-words for the first spoken utterance of a call, older adult and care provider callers could be identified with moderate accuracy. Average call taker response time was calculated using the number-of-speaker-turns and time-in-seconds measures. Care providers and older adults used different conversational strategies when responding to call takers. The words 'ambulance' and 'paramedic' may hold different latent connotations for different callers. The data derived from the real personal emergency response recordings may help a spoken dialogue system classify incoming calls by caller type with moderate probability shortly after the initial caller utterance. Knowing the caller type, the target response for the call may be predicted with some degree of probability and the output dialogue could be tailored to this caller type. The average call taker response time measured from real calls may be used to limit the conversation length in a spoken dialogue system before defaulting to a live call taker.

The Future of Cell Biology: Emerging Model Organisms.

PubMed

Goldstein, Bob; King, Nicole

2016-11-01

Most current research in cell biology uses just a handful of model systems including yeast, Arabidopsis, Drosophila, Caenorhabditis elegans, zebrafish, mouse, and cultured mammalian cells. And for good reason - for many biological questions, the best system for the question is likely to be found among these models. However, in some cases, and particularly as the questions that engage scientists broaden, the best system for a question may be a little-studied organism. Modern research tools are facilitating a renaissance for unusual and interesting organisms as emerging model systems. As a result, we predict that an ever-expanding breadth of model systems may be a hallmark of future cell biology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary Agent-Based Simulation of the Introduction of New Technologies in Air Traffic Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yliniemi, Logan; Agogino, Adrian K.; Tumer, Kagan

2014-01-01

Accurate simulation of the effects of integrating new technologies into a complex system is critical to the modernization of our antiquated air traffic system, where there exist many layers of interacting procedures, controls, and automation all designed to cooperate with human operators. Additions of even simple new technologies may result in unexpected emergent behavior due to complex human/ machine interactions. One approach is to create high-fidelity human models coming from the field of human factors that can simulate a rich set of behaviors. However, such models are difficult to produce, especially to show unexpected emergent behavior coming from many human operators interacting simultaneously within a complex system. Instead of engineering complex human models, we directly model the emergent behavior by evolving goal directed agents, representing human users. Using evolution we can predict how the agent representing the human user reacts given his/her goals. In this paradigm, each autonomous agent in a system pursues individual goals, and the behavior of the system emerges from the interactions, foreseen or unforeseen, between the agents/actors. We show that this method reflects the integration of new technologies in a historical case, and apply the same methodology for a possible future technology.

A microcomputer based traffic evacuation modeling system for emergency planning application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rathi, A.K.

1994-12-01

Vehicular evacuation is one of the major and often preferred protective action options available for emergency management in a real or anticipated disaster. Computer simulation models of evacuation traffic flow are used to estimate the time required for the affected populations to evacuate to safer areas, to evaluate effectiveness of vehicular evacuations as a protective action option. and to develop comprehensive evacuation plans when required. Following a review of the past efforts to simulate traffic flow during emergency evacuations, an overview of the key features in Version 2.0 of the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS) are presented in thismore » paper. OREMS is a microcomputer-based model developed to simulate traffic flow during regional emergency evacuations. OREMS integrates a state-of-the-art dynamic traffic flow and simulation model with advanced data editing and output display programs operating under a MS-Windows environment.« less

Assessing electronic health record systems in emergency departments: Using a decision analytic Bayesian model.

PubMed

Ben-Assuli, Ofir; Leshno, Moshe

2016-09-01

In the last decade, health providers have implemented information systems to improve accuracy in medical diagnosis and decision-making. This article evaluates the impact of an electronic health record on emergency department physicians' diagnosis and admission decisions. A decision analytic approach using a decision tree was constructed to model the admission decision process to assess the added value of medical information retrieved from the electronic health record. Using a Bayesian statistical model, this method was evaluated on two coronary artery disease scenarios. The results show that the cases of coronary artery disease were better diagnosed when the electronic health record was consulted and led to more informed admission decisions. Furthermore, the value of medical information required for a specific admission decision in emergency departments could be quantified. The findings support the notion that physicians and patient healthcare can benefit from implementing electronic health record systems in emergency departments. © The Author(s) 2015.

A hierarchical competing systems model of the emergence and early development of executive function

PubMed Central

Marcovitch, Stuart; Zelazo, Philip David

2010-01-01

The hierarchical competing systems model (HCSM) provides a framework for understanding the emergence and early development of executive function – the cognitive processes underlying the conscious control of behavior – in the context of search for hidden objects. According to this model, behavior is determined by the joint influence of a developmentally invariant habit system and a conscious representational system that becomes increasingly influential as children develop. This article describes a computational formalization of the HCSM, reviews behavioral and computational research consistent with the model, and suggests directions for future research on the development of executive function. PMID:19120405

Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System(ERDAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Randolph J.; Lambert, Winifred C.; Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Yersavich, Ann M.

1996-01-01

The emergency response dose assessment system (ERDAS) is a protype software and hardware system configured to produce routine mesoscale meteorological forecasts and enhanced dispersion estimates on an operational basis for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) region. ERDAS provides emergency response guidance to operations at KSC/CCAS in the case of an accidental hazardous material release or an aborted vehicle launch. This report describes the evaluation of ERDAS including: evaluation of sea breeze predictions, comparison of launch plume location and concentration predictions, case study of a toxic release, evaluation of model sensitivity to varying input parameters, evaluation of the user interface, assessment of ERDA's operational capabilities, and a comparison of ERDAS models to the ocean breeze dry gultch diffusion model.

Mathematical model of ambulance resources in Saint-Petersburg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shavidze, G. G.; Balykina, Y. E.; Lejnina, E. A.; Svirkin, M. V.

2016-06-01

Emergency medical system is one of the main elements in city infrastructure. The article contains analysis of existing system of ambulance resource distribution. Paper considers the idea of using multiperiodicity as a tool to increase the efficiency of the Emergency Medical Services. The program developed in programming environment Matlab helps to evaluate the changes in the functioning of the system of emergency medical service.

Reviewing emergency care systems I: insights from system dynamics modelling

PubMed Central

Lattimer, V; Brailsford, S; Turnbull, J; Tarnaras, P; Smith, H; George, S; Gerard, K; Maslin-Prothero, S

2004-01-01

Objectives: To describe the components of an emergency and urgent care system within one health authority and to investigate ways in which patient flows and system capacity could be improved. Methods: Using a qualitative system dynamics (SD) approach, data from interviews were used to build a conceptual map of the system illustrating patient pathways from entry to discharge. The map was used to construct a quantitative SD model populated with demographic and activity data to simulate patterns of demand, activity, contingencies, and system bottlenecks. Using simulation experiments, a range of scenarios were tested to determine their likely effectiveness in meeting future objectives and targets. Results: Emergency hospital admissions grew at a faster annual rate than the national average for 1998–2001. Without intervention, and assuming this trend continued, acute hospitals were likely to have difficulty sustaining levels of elective work, in reaching elective admission targets and in achieving bed occupancy targets. General practice admissions exerted the greatest influence on occupancy rates. Prevention of emergency admissions for older people (3%–6% each year) reduced bed occupancy in both hospitals by 1% per annum over five years. Prevention of emergency admissions for patients with chronic respiratory disease affected occupancy less noticeably, but because of the seasonal pattern of admissions, had an effect on peak winter occupancy. Conclusions: Modelling showed the potential consequences of continued growth in demand for emergency care, but also considerable scope to intervene to ameliorate the worst case scenarios, in particular by increasing the care management options available in the community. PMID:15496694

Modulation for emergent networks: serotonin and dopamine.

PubMed

Weng, Juyang; Paslaski, Stephen; Daly, James; VanDam, Courtland; Brown, Jacob

2013-05-01

In autonomous learning, value-sensitive experiences can improve the efficiency of learning. A learning network needs be motivated so that the limited computational resources and the limited lifetime are devoted to events that are of high value for the agent to compete in its environment. The neuromodulatory system of the brain is mainly responsible for developing such a motivation system. Although reinforcement learning has been extensively studied, many existing models are symbolic whose internal nodes or modules have preset meanings. Neural networks have been used to automatically generate internal emergent representations. However, modeling an emergent motivational system for neural networks is still a great challenge. By emergent, we mean that the internal representations emerge autonomously through interactions with the external environments. This work proposes a generic emergent modulatory system for emergent networks, which includes two subsystems - the serotonin system and the dopamine system. The former signals a large class of stimuli that are intrinsically aversive (e.g., stress or pain). The latter signals a large class of stimuli that are intrinsically appetitive (e.g., pleasure or sweet). We experimented with this motivational system for two settings. The first is a visual recognition setting to investigate how such a system can learn through interactions with a teacher, who does not directly give answers, but only punishments and rewards. The second is a setting for wandering in the presence of a friend and a foe. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergent kink statistics at finite temperature

DOE PAGES

Lopez-Ruiz, Miguel Angel; Yepez-Martinez, Tochtli; Szczepaniak, Adam; ...

2017-07-25

In this paper we use 1D quantum mechanical systems with Higgs-like interaction potential to study the emergence of topological objects at finite temperature. Two different model systems are studied, the standard double-well potential model and a newly introduced discrete kink model. Using Monte-Carlo simulations as well as analytic methods, we demonstrate how kinks become abundant at low temperatures. These results may shed useful insights on how topological phenomena may occur in QCD.

Advanced Atmospheric Modeling for Emergency Response.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fast, Jerome D.; O'Steen, B. Lance; Addis, Robert P.

1995-03-01

Atmospheric transport and diffusion models are an important part of emergency response systems for industrial facilities that have the potential to release significant quantities of toxic or radioactive material into the atmosphere. An advanced atmospheric transport and diffusion modeling system for emergency response and environmental applications, based upon a three-dimensional mesoscale model, has been developed for the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site so that complex, time-dependent flow fields not explicitly measured can be routinely simulated. To overcome some of the current computational demands of mesoscale models, two operational procedures for the advanced atmospheric transport and diffusion modeling system are described including 1) a semiprognostic calculation to produce high-resolution wind fields for local pollutant transport in the vicinity of the Savannah River Site and 2) a fully prognostic calculation to produce a regional wind field encompassing the southeastern United States for larger-scale pollutant problems. Local and regional observations and large-scale model output are used by the mesoscale model for the initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and four-dimensional data assimilation procedure. This paper describes the current status of the modeling system and presents two case studies demonstrating the capabilities of both modes of operation. While the results from the case studies shown in this paper are preliminary and certainly not definitive, they do suggest that the mesoscale model has the potential for improving the prognostic capabilities of atmospheric modeling for emergency response at the Savannah River Site. Long-term model evaluation will be required to determine under what conditions significant forecast errors exist.

Computer graphics to display plume-modeling results for nuclear emergency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krawchuk, B.; Gotham, I.; Matuszek, J.

1985-01-01

New York uses a color graphics display/analysis system, ANALYSE, to portray the results of the plume transport models, MATHEW/ADPIC and PATRIC. As a tool for the researcher and meteorologist, it provides a detailed look into the model results, input and performance. Used in an automatic mode and pre-programmed for use in an emergency, it provides a sequence of informative and attractive of displays to assessment staff at the State EOC through an easily-learned display module. Though successfully implemented on low-cost display and communication equipment, further technical improvements and software development would greatly enhance the system for use in an emergency.

Emergent Feature Structures: Harmony Systems in Exemplar Models of Phonology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, Jennifer

2009-01-01

In exemplar models of phonology, phonotactic constraints are modeled as emergent from patterns of high activation between units that co-occur with statistical regularity, or as patterns of low activation or inhibition between units that co-occur less frequently or not at all. Exemplar models posit no a "priori" formal or representational…

Meeting national response time targets for priority 1 incidents in an urban emergency medical services system in South Africa: More ambulances won't help.

PubMed

Stein, Christopher; Wallis, Lee; Adetunji, Olufemi

2015-09-19

Response time is viewed as a key performance indicator in most emergency medical services (EMS) systems. To determine the effect of increased emergency vehicle numbers on response time performance for priority 1 incidents in an urban EMS system in Cape Town, South Africa, using discrete-event computer simulation. A simulation model was created, based on input data from part of the EMS operations. Two different versions of the model were used, one with primary response vehicles and ambulances and one with only ambulances. In both cases the models were run in seven different scenarios. The first scenario used the actual number of emergency vehicles in the real system, and in each subsequent scenario vehicle numbers were increased by adding the baseline number to the cumulative total. The model using only ambulances had shorter response times and a greater number of responses meeting national response time targets than models using primary response vehicles and ambulances. In both cases an improvement in response times and the number of responses meeting national response time targets was observed with the first incremental addition of vehicles. After this the improvements rapidly diminished and eventually became negligible with each successive increase in vehicle numbers. The national response time target for urban areas was never met, even with a seven-fold increase in vehicle numbers. The addition of emergency vehicles to an urban EMS system improves response times in priority 1 incidents, but alone is not capable of the magnitude of response time improvement needed to meet the national response time targets.

Improving Emergency Department Triage Classification with Computerized Clinical Decision Support at a Pediatric Hospital

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kunisch, Joseph Martin

2012-01-01

Background: The Emergency Severity Index (ESI) is an emergency department (ED) triage classification system based on estimated patient-specific resource utilization. Rules for a computerized clinical decision support (CDS) system based on a patient's chief complaint were developed and tested using a stochastic model for predicting ESI scores.…

Towards a multi-level approach to the emergence of meaning processes in living systems.

PubMed

Queiroz, João; El-Hani, Charbel Niño

2006-09-01

Any description of the emergence and evolution of different types of meaning processes (semiosis, sensu C.S.Peirce) in living systems must be supported by a theoretical framework which makes it possible to understand the nature and dynamics of such processes. Here we propose that the emergence of semiosis of different kinds can be understood as resulting from fundamental interactions in a triadically-organized hierarchical process. To grasp these interactions, we develop a model grounded on Stanley Salthe's hierarchical structuralism. This model can be applied to establish, in a general sense, a set of theoretical constraints for explaining the instantiation of different kinds of meaning processes (iconic, indexical, symbolic) in semiotic systems. We use it to model a semiotic process in the immune system, namely, B-cell activation, in order to offer insights into the heuristic role it can play in the development of explanations for specific semiotic processes.

Emergence Processes up to Consciousness Using the Multiplicity Principle and Quantum Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehresmann, Andrée C.; Vanbremeersch, Jean-Paul

2002-09-01

Evolution is marked by the emergence of new objects and interactions. Pursuing our preceding work on Memory Evolutive Systems (MES; cf. our Internet site), we propose a general mathematical model for this process, based on Category Theory. Its main characteristics is the Multiplicity Principle (MP) which asserts the existence of complex objects with several possible configurations. The MP entails the emergence of non-reducible more and more complex objects (emergentist reductionism). From the laws of Quantum Physics, it follows that the MP is valid for the category of particles and atoms, hence, by complexification, for any natural autonomous anticipatory complex system, such as biological systems up to neural systems, or social systems. Applying the model to the MES of neurons, we describe the emergence of higher and higher cognitive processes and of a semantic memory. Consciousness is characterized by the development of a permanent `personal' memory, the archetypal core, which allows the formation of extended landscapes with an integration of the temporal dimensions.

Psychological model for judicial decision making in emergency or temporary child placement.

PubMed

Ballou, M; Barry, J; Billingham, K; Boorstein, B W; Butler, C; Gershberg, R; Heim, J; Lirianio, D; McGovern, S; Nicastro, S; Romaniello, J; Vazquez-Nuttall, K; White, C

2001-10-01

In emergencies, family court judges must often make rapid decisions, without benefit of thorough information, that have significant impact on people's lives. Action-oriented research was used to develop a model that would bring psychosocial factors to the legal system for the purpose of enhancing the judicial decision-making process in emergency and temporary child placement cases.

Short-term emergency response planning and risk assessment via an integrated modeling system for nuclear power plants in complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ni-Bin; Weng, Yu-Chi

2013-03-01

Short-term predictions of potential impacts from accidental release of various radionuclides at nuclear power plants are acutely needed, especially after the Fukushima accident in Japan. An integrated modeling system that provides expert services to assess the consequences of accidental or intentional releases of radioactive materials to the atmosphere has received wide attention. These scenarios can be initiated either by accident due to human, software, or mechanical failures, or from intentional acts such as sabotage and radiological dispersal devices. Stringent action might be required just minutes after the occurrence of accidental or intentional release. To fulfill the basic functions of emergency preparedness and response systems, previous studies seldom consider the suitability of air pollutant dispersion models or the connectivity between source term, dispersion, and exposure assessment models in a holistic context for decision support. Therefore, the Gaussian plume and puff models, which are only suitable for illustrating neutral air pollutants in flat terrain conditional to limited meteorological situations, are frequently used to predict the impact from accidental release of industrial sources. In situations with complex terrain or special meteorological conditions, the proposing emergency response actions might be questionable and even intractable to decisionmakers responsible for maintaining public health and environmental quality. This study is a preliminary effort to integrate the source term, dispersion, and exposure assessment models into a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) to tackle the complex issues for short-term emergency response planning and risk assessment at nuclear power plants. Through a series model screening procedures, we found that the diagnostic (objective) wind field model with the aid of sufficient on-site meteorological monitoring data was the most applicable model to promptly address the trend of local wind field patterns. However, most of the hazardous materials being released into the environment from nuclear power plants are not neutral pollutants, so the particle and multi-segment puff models can be regarded as the most suitable models to incorporate into the output of the diagnostic wind field model in a modern emergency preparedness and response system. The proposed SDSS illustrates the state-of-the-art system design based on the situation of complex terrain in South Taiwan. This system design of SDSS with 3-dimensional animation capability using a tailored source term model in connection with ArcView® Geographical Information System map layers and remote sensing images is useful for meeting the design goal of nuclear power plants located in complex terrain.

Fault tolerant vector control of induction motor drive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odnokopylov, G.; Bragin, A.

2014-10-01

For electric composed of technical objects hazardous industries, such as nuclear, military, chemical, etc. an urgent task is to increase their resiliency and survivability. The construction principle of vector control system fault-tolerant asynchronous electric. Displaying recovery efficiency three-phase induction motor drive in emergency mode using two-phase vector control system. The process of formation of a simulation model of the asynchronous electric unbalance in emergency mode. When modeling used coordinate transformation, providing emergency operation electric unbalance work. The results of modeling transient phase loss motor stator. During a power failure phase induction motor cannot save circular rotating field in the air gap of the motor and ensure the restoration of its efficiency at rated torque and speed.

Emergent behaviors of the Schrödinger-Lohe model on cooperative-competitive networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huh, Hyungjin; Ha, Seung-Yeal; Kim, Dohyun

2017-12-01

We present several sufficient frameworks leading to the emergent behaviors of the coupled Schrödinger-Lohe (S-L) model under the same one-body external potential on cooperative-competitive networks. The S-L model was first introduced as a possible phenomenological model exhibiting quantum synchronization and its emergent dynamics on all-to-all cooperative networks has been treated via two distinct approaches, Lyapunov functional approach and the finite-dimensional reduction based on pairwise correlations. In this paper, we further generalize the finite-dimensional dynamical systems approach for pairwise correlation functions on cooperative-competitive networks and provide several sufficient frameworks leading to the collective exponential synchronization. For small systems consisting of three and four quantum subsystem, we also show that the system for pairwise correlations can be reduced to the Lotka-Volterra model with cooperative and competitive interactions, in which lots of interesting dynamical patterns appear, e.g., existence of closed orbits and limit-cycles.

The Rescue911 Emergency Response Information System (ERIS): A Systems Development Project Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Jason F.; Thiel, Franz H.

2010-01-01

This teaching case presents a systems development project useful for courses in object-oriented analysis and design. The case has a strong focus on the business, methodology, modeling and implementation aspects of systems development. The case is centered on a fictitious ambulance and emergency services company (Rescue911). The case describes that…

Disease ecology and the global emergence of zoonotic pathogens.

PubMed

Wilcox, Bruce A; Gubler, Duane J

2005-09-01

The incidence and frequency of epidemic transmission of zoonotic diseases, both known and newly recognized, has increased dramatically in the past 30 years. It is thought that this dramatic disease emergence is primarily the result of the social, demographic, and environmental transformation that has occurred globally since World War II. However, the causal linkages have not been elucidated. Investigating emerging zoonotic pathogens as an ecological phenomenon can provide significant insights as to why some of these pathogens have jumped species and caused major epidemics in humans. A review of concepts and theory from biological ecology and of causal factors in disease emergence previously described suggests a general model of global zoonotic disease emergence. The model links demographic and societal factors to land use and land cover change whose associated ecological factors help explain disease emergence. The scale and magnitude of these changes are more significant than those associated with climate change, the effects of which are largely not yet understood. Unfortunately, the complex character and non-linear behavior of the human-natural systems in which host-pathogen systems are embedded makes specific incidences of disease emergence or epidemics inherently difficult to predict. Employing a complex systems analytical approach, however, may show how a few key ecological variables and system properties, including the adaptive capacity of institutions, explains the emergence of infectious diseases and how an integrated, multi-level approach to zoonotic disease control can reduce risk.

Beyond signal functions in global obstetric care: Using a clinical cascade to measure emergency obstetric readiness

PubMed Central

Dettinger, Julia; Calkins, Kimberly; Kibore, Minnie; Gachuno, Onesmus; Walker, Dilys

2018-01-01

Background Globally, the rate of reduction in delivery-associated maternal and perinatal mortality has been slow compared to improvements in post-delivery mortality in children under five. Improving clinical readiness for basic obstetric emergencies is crucial for reducing facility-based maternal deaths. Emergency readiness is commonly assessed using tracers derived from the maternal signal functions model. Objective-method We compare emergency readiness using the signal functions model and a novel clinical cascade. The cascades model readiness as the proportion of facilities with resources to identify the emergency (stage 1), treat it (stage 2) and monitor-modify therapy (stage 3). Data were collected from 44 Kenyan clinics as part of an implementation trial. Findings Although most facilities (77.0%) stock maternal signal function tracer drugs, far fewer have resources to practically identify and treat emergencies. In hypertensive emergencies for example, 38.6% of facilities have resources to identify the emergency (Stage 1 readiness, including sphygmomanometer, stethoscope, urine collection device, protein test). 6.8% have the resources to treat the emergency (Stage 2, consumables (IV Kit, fluids), durable goods (IV pole) and drugs (magnesium sulfate and hydralazine). No facilities could monitor or modify therapy (Stage 3). Across five maternal emergencies, the signal functions overestimate readiness by 54.5%. A consistent, step-wise pattern of readiness loss across signal functions and care stage emerged and was profoundly consistent at 33.0%. Significance Comparing estimates from the maternal signal functions and cascades illustrates four themes. First, signal functions overestimate practical readiness by 55%. Second, the cascade’s intuitive indicators can support cross-sector health system or program planners to more precisely measure and improve emergency care. Third, adding few variables to existing readiness inventories permits step-wise modeling of readiness loss and can inform more precise interventions. Fourth, the novel aggregate readiness loss indicator provides an innovative and intuitive approach for modeling health system emergency readiness. Additional testing in diverse contexts is warranted. PMID:29474397

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K.

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors.

PubMed

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Selecting a dynamic simulation modeling method for health care delivery research-part 2: report of the ISPOR Dynamic Simulation Modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

PubMed

Marshall, Deborah A; Burgos-Liz, Lina; IJzerman, Maarten J; Crown, William; Padula, William V; Wong, Peter K; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Higashi, Mitchell K; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2015-03-01

In a previous report, the ISPOR Task Force on Dynamic Simulation Modeling Applications in Health Care Delivery Research Emerging Good Practices introduced the fundamentals of dynamic simulation modeling and identified the types of health care delivery problems for which dynamic simulation modeling can be used more effectively than other modeling methods. The hierarchical relationship between the health care delivery system, providers, patients, and other stakeholders exhibits a level of complexity that ought to be captured using dynamic simulation modeling methods. As a tool to help researchers decide whether dynamic simulation modeling is an appropriate method for modeling the effects of an intervention on a health care system, we presented the System, Interactions, Multilevel, Understanding, Loops, Agents, Time, Emergence (SIMULATE) checklist consisting of eight elements. This report builds on the previous work, systematically comparing each of the three most commonly used dynamic simulation modeling methods-system dynamics, discrete-event simulation, and agent-based modeling. We review criteria for selecting the most suitable method depending on 1) the purpose-type of problem and research questions being investigated, 2) the object-scope of the model, and 3) the method to model the object to achieve the purpose. Finally, we provide guidance for emerging good practices for dynamic simulation modeling in the health sector, covering all aspects, from the engagement of decision makers in the model design through model maintenance and upkeep. We conclude by providing some recommendations about the application of these methods to add value to informed decision making, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement, starting with the problem definition. Finally, we identify areas in which further methodological development will likely occur given the growing "volume, velocity and variety" and availability of "big data" to provide empirical evidence and techniques such as machine learning for parameter estimation in dynamic simulation models. Upon reviewing this report in addition to using the SIMULATE checklist, the readers should be able to identify whether dynamic simulation modeling methods are appropriate to address the problem at hand and to recognize the differences of these methods from those of other, more traditional modeling approaches such as Markov models and decision trees. This report provides an overview of these modeling methods and examples of health care system problems in which such methods have been useful. The primary aim of the report was to aid decisions as to whether these simulation methods are appropriate to address specific health systems problems. The report directs readers to other resources for further education on these individual modeling methods for system interventions in the emerging field of health care delivery science and implementation. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Emerging Global Model with Chinese Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohrman, Kathryn

2008-01-01

The Emerging Global Model is the blueprint for China's leading research universities to become internationally respected institutions. Government leaders and campus administrators seek universities with the research intensity and global perspective of the best European and North American institutions. International ranking systems provide…

Integrated Baseline System (IBS), Version 1. 03. [Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, B.M.; Burford, M.J.; Downing, T.R.

The Integrated Baseline System (IBS), operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is a system of computerized tools for emergency planing and analysis. This document is the user guide for the IBS and explains how to operate the IBS system. The fundamental function of the IBS is to provide tools that civilian emergency management personnel can use in developing emergency plans and in supporting emergency management activities to cope with a chemical-releasing event at a military chemical stockpile. Emergency management planners can evaluate concepts and ideas using the IBS system. The results of that experience can then be factoredmore » into refining requirements and plans. This document provides information for the general system user, and is the primary reference for the system features of the IBS. It is designed for persons who are familiar with general emergency management concepts, operations, and vocabulary. Although the IBS manual set covers basic and advanced operations, it is not a complete reference document set. Emergency situation modeling software in the IBS is supported by additional technical documents. Some of the other LBS software is commercial software for which more complete documentation is available. The IBS manuals reference such documentation where necessary. IBS is a dynamic system. Its capabilities are in a state of continuing expansion and enhancement.« less

An Agent-Based Model for the Role of Short-Term Memory Enhancement in the Emergence of Grammatical Agreement.

PubMed

Vera, Javier

2018-01-01

What is the influence of short-term memory enhancement on the emergence of grammatical agreement systems in multi-agent language games? Agreement systems suppose that at least two words share some features with each other, such as gender, number, or case. Previous work, within the multi-agent language-game framework, has recently proposed models stressing the hypothesis that the emergence of a grammatical agreement system arises from the minimization of semantic ambiguity. On the other hand, neurobiological evidence argues for the hypothesis that language evolution has mainly related to an increasing of short-term memory capacity, which has allowed the online manipulation of words and meanings participating particularly in grammatical agreement systems. Here, the main aim is to propose a multi-agent language game for the emergence of a grammatical agreement system, under measurable long-range relations depending on the short-term memory capacity. Computer simulations, based on a parameter that measures the amount of short-term memory capacity, suggest that agreement marker systems arise in a population of agents equipped at least with a critical short-term memory capacity.

Models of emergency departments for reducing patient waiting times.

PubMed

Laskowski, Marek; McLeod, Robert D; Friesen, Marcia R; Podaima, Blake W; Alfa, Attahiru S

2009-07-02

In this paper, we apply both agent-based models and queuing models to investigate patient access and patient flow through emergency departments. The objective of this work is to gain insights into the comparative contributions and limitations of these complementary techniques, in their ability to contribute empirical input into healthcare policy and practice guidelines. The models were developed independently, with a view to compare their suitability to emergency department simulation. The current models implement relatively simple general scenarios, and rely on a combination of simulated and real data to simulate patient flow in a single emergency department or in multiple interacting emergency departments. In addition, several concepts from telecommunications engineering are translated into this modeling context. The framework of multiple-priority queue systems and the genetic programming paradigm of evolutionary machine learning are applied as a means of forecasting patient wait times and as a means of evolving healthcare policy, respectively. The models' utility lies in their ability to provide qualitative insights into the relative sensitivities and impacts of model input parameters, to illuminate scenarios worthy of more complex investigation, and to iteratively validate the models as they continue to be refined and extended. The paper discusses future efforts to refine, extend, and validate the models with more data and real data relative to physical (spatial-topographical) and social inputs (staffing, patient care models, etc.). Real data obtained through proximity location and tracking system technologies is one example discussed.

Models of Emergency Departments for Reducing Patient Waiting Times

PubMed Central

Laskowski, Marek; McLeod, Robert D.; Friesen, Marcia R.; Podaima, Blake W.; Alfa, Attahiru S.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we apply both agent-based models and queuing models to investigate patient access and patient flow through emergency departments. The objective of this work is to gain insights into the comparative contributions and limitations of these complementary techniques, in their ability to contribute empirical input into healthcare policy and practice guidelines. The models were developed independently, with a view to compare their suitability to emergency department simulation. The current models implement relatively simple general scenarios, and rely on a combination of simulated and real data to simulate patient flow in a single emergency department or in multiple interacting emergency departments. In addition, several concepts from telecommunications engineering are translated into this modeling context. The framework of multiple-priority queue systems and the genetic programming paradigm of evolutionary machine learning are applied as a means of forecasting patient wait times and as a means of evolving healthcare policy, respectively. The models' utility lies in their ability to provide qualitative insights into the relative sensitivities and impacts of model input parameters, to illuminate scenarios worthy of more complex investigation, and to iteratively validate the models as they continue to be refined and extended. The paper discusses future efforts to refine, extend, and validate the models with more data and real data relative to physical (spatial–topographical) and social inputs (staffing, patient care models, etc.). Real data obtained through proximity location and tracking system technologies is one example discussed. PMID:19572015

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2018-01-01

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Core and Off-Core Processes in Systems Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breidenthal, Julian; Forsberg, Kevin

2010-01-01

An emerging methodology of organizing systems-engineering plans is based on a concept of core and off-core processes or activities. This concept has emerged as a result of recognition of a risk in the traditional representation of systems-engineering plans by a Vee model alone, according to which a large system is decomposed into levels of smaller subsystems, then integrated through levels of increasing scope until the full system is constructed. Actual systems-engineering activity is more complicated, raising the possibility that the staff will become confused in the absence of plans which explain the nature and ordering of work beyond the traditional Vee model.

Mental Health and Drivers of Need in Emergent and Non-Emergent Emergency Department (ED) Use: Do Living Location and Non-Emergent Care Sources Matter?

PubMed

McManus, Moira C; Cramer, Robert J; Boshier, Maureen; Akpinar-Elci, Muge; Van Lunen, Bonnie

2018-01-13

Emergency department (ED) utilization has increased due to factors such as admissions for mental health conditions, including suicide and self-harm. We investigate direct and moderating influences on non-emergent ED utilization through the Behavioral Model of Health Services Use. Through logistic regression, we examined correlates of ED use via 2014 New York State Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System outpatient data. Consistent with the primary hypothesis, mental health admissions were associated with emergent use across models, with only a slight decrease in effect size in rural living locations. Concerning moderating effects, Spanish/Hispanic origin was associated with increased likelihood for emergent ED use in the rural living location model, and non-emergent ED use for the no non-emergent source model. 'Other' ethnic origin increased the likelihood of emergent ED use for rural living location and no non-emergent source models. The findings reveal 'need', including mental health admissions, as the largest driver for ED use. This may be due to mental healthcare access, or patients with mental health emergencies being transported via first responders to the ED, as in the case of suicide, self-harm, manic episodes or psychotic episodes. Further educating ED staff on this patient population through gatekeeper training may ensure patients receive the best treatment and aid in driving access to mental healthcare delivery changes.

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

PubMed

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

A Feeder-Bus Dispatch Planning Model for Emergency Evacuation in Urban Rail Transit Corridors

PubMed Central

Wang, Yun; Yan, Xuedong; Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Wenyi

2016-01-01

The mobility of modern metropolises strongly relies on urban rail transit (URT) systems, and such a heavy dependence causes that even minor service interruptions would make the URT systems unsustainable. This study aims at optimally dispatching the ground feeder-bus to coordinate with the urban rails’ operation for eliminating the effect of unexpected service interruptions in URT corridors. A feeder-bus dispatch planning model was proposed for the collaborative optimization of URT and feeder-bus cooperation under emergency situations and minimizing the total evacuation cost of the feeder-buses. To solve the model, a concept of dummy feeder-bus system is proposed to transform the non-linear model into traditional linear programming (ILP) model, i.e., traditional transportation problem. The case study of Line #2 of Nanjing URT in China was adopted to illustrate the model application and sensitivity analyses of the key variables. The modeling results show that as the evacuation time window increases, the total evacuation cost as well as the number of dispatched feeder-buses decrease, and the dispatched feeder-buses need operate for more times along the feeder-bus line. The number of dispatched feeder-buses does not show an obvious change with the increase of parking spot capacity and time window, indicating that simply increasing the parking spot capacity would cause huge waste for the emergent bus utilization. When the unbalanced evacuation demand exists between stations, the more feeder-buses are needed. The method of this study will contribute to improving transportation emergency management and resource allocation for URT systems. PMID:27676179

Emergence of scale-free characteristics in socio-ecological systems with bounded rationality

PubMed Central

Kasthurirathna, Dharshana; Piraveenan, Mahendra

2015-01-01

Socio–ecological systems are increasingly modelled by games played on complex networks. While the concept of Nash equilibrium assumes perfect rationality, in reality players display heterogeneous bounded rationality. Here we present a topological model of bounded rationality in socio-ecological systems, using the rationality parameter of the Quantal Response Equilibrium. We argue that system rationality could be measured by the average Kullback–-Leibler divergence between Nash and Quantal Response Equilibria, and that the convergence towards Nash equilibria on average corresponds to increased system rationality. Using this model, we show that when a randomly connected socio-ecological system is topologically optimised to converge towards Nash equilibria, scale-free and small world features emerge. Therefore, optimising system rationality is an evolutionary reason for the emergence of scale-free and small-world features in socio-ecological systems. Further, we show that in games where multiple equilibria are possible, the correlation between the scale-freeness of the system and the fraction of links with multiple equilibria goes through a rapid transition when the average system rationality increases. Our results explain the influence of the topological structure of socio–ecological systems in shaping their collective cognitive behaviour, and provide an explanation for the prevalence of scale-free and small-world characteristics in such systems. PMID:26065713

Emergence of scale-free characteristics in socio-ecological systems with bounded rationality.

PubMed

Kasthurirathna, Dharshana; Piraveenan, Mahendra

2015-06-11

Socio-ecological systems are increasingly modelled by games played on complex networks. While the concept of Nash equilibrium assumes perfect rationality, in reality players display heterogeneous bounded rationality. Here we present a topological model of bounded rationality in socio-ecological systems, using the rationality parameter of the Quantal Response Equilibrium. We argue that system rationality could be measured by the average Kullback--Leibler divergence between Nash and Quantal Response Equilibria, and that the convergence towards Nash equilibria on average corresponds to increased system rationality. Using this model, we show that when a randomly connected socio-ecological system is topologically optimised to converge towards Nash equilibria, scale-free and small world features emerge. Therefore, optimising system rationality is an evolutionary reason for the emergence of scale-free and small-world features in socio-ecological systems. Further, we show that in games where multiple equilibria are possible, the correlation between the scale-freeness of the system and the fraction of links with multiple equilibria goes through a rapid transition when the average system rationality increases. Our results explain the influence of the topological structure of socio-ecological systems in shaping their collective cognitive behaviour, and provide an explanation for the prevalence of scale-free and small-world characteristics in such systems.

Integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems and global positioning system techniques with hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakur, Jay Krishna; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Ekanthalu, Vicky Shettigondahalli

2017-07-01

Integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) are emerging research areas in the field of groundwater hydrology, resource management, environmental monitoring and during emergency response. Recent advancements in the fields of RS, GIS, GPS and higher level of computation will help in providing and handling a range of data simultaneously in a time- and cost-efficient manner. This review paper deals with hydrological modeling, uses of remote sensing and GIS in hydrological modeling, models of integrations and their need and in last the conclusion. After dealing with these issues conceptually and technically, we can develop better methods and novel approaches to handle large data sets and in a better way to communicate information related with rapidly decreasing societal resources, i.e. groundwater.

a Real-Time GIS Platform for High Sour Gas Leakage Simulation, Evaluation and Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Liu, H.; Yang, C.

2015-07-01

The development of high-sulfur gas fields, also known as sour gas field, is faced with a series of safety control and emergency management problems. The GIS-based emergency response system is placed high expectations under the consideration of high pressure, high content, complex terrain and highly density population in Sichuan Basin, southwest China. The most researches on high hydrogen sulphide gas dispersion simulation and evaluation are used for environmental impact assessment (EIA) or emergency preparedness planning. This paper introduces a real-time GIS platform for high-sulfur gas emergency response. Combining with real-time data from the leak detection systems and the meteorological monitoring stations, GIS platform provides the functions of simulating, evaluating and displaying of the different spatial-temporal toxic gas distribution patterns and evaluation results. This paper firstly proposes the architecture of Emergency Response/Management System, secondly explains EPA's Gaussian dispersion model CALPUFF simulation workflow under high complex terrain and real-time data, thirdly explains the emergency workflow and spatial analysis functions of computing the accident influencing areas, population and the optimal evacuation routes. Finally, a well blow scenarios is used for verify the system. The study shows that GIS platform which integrates the real-time data and CALPUFF models will be one of the essential operational platforms for high-sulfur gas fields emergency management.

Versatile clinical information system design for emergency departments.

PubMed

Amouh, Teh; Gemo, Monica; Macq, Benoît; Vanderdonckt, Jean; El Gariani, Abdul Wahed; Reynaert, Marc S; Stamatakis, Lambert; Thys, Frédéric

2005-06-01

Compared to other hospital units, the emergency department presents some distinguishing characteristics of its own. Emergency health-care delivery is a collaborative process involving the contribution of several individuals who accomplish their tasks while working autonomously under pressure and sometimes with limited resources. Effective computerization of the emergency department information system presents a real challenge due to the complexity of the scenario. Current computerized support suffers from several problems, including inadequate data models, clumsy user interfaces, and poor integration with other clinical information systems. To tackle such complexity, we propose an approach combining three points of view, namely the transactions (in and out of the department), the (mono and multi) user interfaces and data management. Unlike current systems, we pay particular attention to the user-friendliness and versatility of our system. This means that intuitive user interfaces have been conceived and specific software modeling methodologies have been applied to provide our system with the flexibility and adaptability necessary for the individual and group coordinated tasks. Our approach has been implemented by prototyping a web-based, multiplatform, multiuser, and versatile clinical information system built upon multitier software architecture, using the Java programming language.

A strategy to implement and support pre-hospital emergency medical systems in developing, resource-constrained areas of South Africa.

PubMed

Sun, Jared H; Shing, Rachel; Twomey, Michele; Wallis, Lee A

2014-01-01

Resource-constrained countries are in extreme need of pre-hospital emergency care systems. However, current popular strategies to provide pre-hospital emergency care are inappropriate for and beyond the means of a resource-constrained country, and so new ones are needed-ones that can both function in an under-developed area's particular context and be done with the area's limited resources. In this study, we used a two-location pilot and consensus approach to develop a strategy to implement and support pre-hospital emergency care in one such developing, resource-constrained area: the Western Cape province of South Africa. Local community members are trained to be emergency first aid responders who can provide immediate, on-scene care until a Transporter can take the patient to the hospital. Management of the system is done through local Community Based Organizations, which can adapt the model to their communities as needed to ensure local appropriateness and feasibility. Within a community, the system is implemented in a graduated manner based on available resources, and is designed to not rely on the whole system being implemented first to provide partial function. The University of Cape Town's Division of Emergency Medicine and the Western Cape's provincial METRO EMS intend to follow this model, along with sharing it with other South African provinces. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Building a Decision Support System for Inpatient Admission Prediction With the Manchester Triage System and Administrative Check-in Variables.

PubMed

Zlotnik, Alexander; Alfaro, Miguel Cuchí; Pérez, María Carmen Pérez; Gallardo-Antolín, Ascensión; Martínez, Juan Manuel Montero

2016-05-01

The usage of decision support tools in emergency departments, based on predictive models, capable of estimating the probability of admission for patients in the emergency department may give nursing staff the possibility of allocating resources in advance. We present a methodology for developing and building one such system for a large specialized care hospital using a logistic regression and an artificial neural network model using nine routinely collected variables available right at the end of the triage process.A database of 255.668 triaged nonobstetric emergency department presentations from the Ramon y Cajal University Hospital of Madrid, from January 2011 to December 2012, was used to develop and test the models, with 66% of the data used for derivation and 34% for validation, with an ordered nonrandom partition. On the validation dataset areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.8568 (95% confidence interval, 0.8508-0.8583) for the logistic regression model and 0.8575 (95% confidence interval, 0.8540-0. 8610) for the artificial neural network model. χ Values for Hosmer-Lemeshow fixed "deciles of risk" were 65.32 for the logistic regression model and 17.28 for the artificial neural network model. A nomogram was generated upon the logistic regression model and an automated software decision support system with a Web interface was built based on the artificial neural network model.

Development of a university-based emergency department network: lessons learned.

PubMed

Pimentel, Laura; Hirshon, Jon Mark; Barrueto, Fermin; Browne, Brian J

2012-10-01

As part of the growth of emergency medical care in our state, our university-based emergency medicine practice developed a network of affiliated emergency department (ED) practices. The original practices were academic and based on a faculty practice model; more recent network development incorporated a community practice model less focused on academics. This article discusses the growth of that network, with a focus on the recent addition of a county-wide two-hospital emergency medicine practice. During the transition of the two EDs from a contract management group to the university network, six critical areas in need of restructuring were identified: 1) departmental leadership, 2) recruitment and retention of clinical staff members, 3) staffing strategies, 4) relationships with key constituents, 5) clinical operations, supplies, and equipment, and 6) compensation structure. The impact of changes was measured by comparison of core measures, efficiency metrics, patient volumes, admissions, and transfers to the academic medical center before and after the implementation of our practice model. Our review and modification of these components significantly improved the quality and efficiency of care at the community hospital system. The consistent presence of board certified emergency physicians optimized utilization of clinical resources in the community hospital and the academic health system. This dynamic led to a mutually beneficial merger of these major state healthcare systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated Baseline System (IBS), Version 1.03. User guide: Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, B.M.; Burford, M.J.; Downing, T.R.

The Integrated Baseline System (IBS), operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is a system of computerized tools for emergency planing and analysis. This document is the user guide for the IBS and explains how to operate the IBS system. The fundamental function of the IBS is to provide tools that civilian emergency management personnel can use in developing emergency plans and in supporting emergency management activities to cope with a chemical-releasing event at a military chemical stockpile. Emergency management planners can evaluate concepts and ideas using the IBS system. The results of that experience can then be factoredmore » into refining requirements and plans. This document provides information for the general system user, and is the primary reference for the system features of the IBS. It is designed for persons who are familiar with general emergency management concepts, operations, and vocabulary. Although the IBS manual set covers basic and advanced operations, it is not a complete reference document set. Emergency situation modeling software in the IBS is supported by additional technical documents. Some of the other LBS software is commercial software for which more complete documentation is available. The IBS manuals reference such documentation where necessary. IBS is a dynamic system. Its capabilities are in a state of continuing expansion and enhancement.« less

A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling the Sensitivity of Inappropriate Emergency Department Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behr, Joshua G.; Diaz, Rafael

Non-urgent Emergency Department utilization has been attributed with increasing congestion in the flow and treatment of patients and, by extension, conditions the quality of care and profitability of the Emergency Department. Interventions designed to divert populations to more appropriate care may be cautiously received by operations managers due to uncertainty about the impact an adopted intervention may have on the two values of congestion and profitability. System Dynamics (SD) modeling and simulation may be used to measure the sensitivity of these two, often-competing, values of congestion and profitability and, thus, provide an additional layer of information designed to inform strategic decision making.

Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases

PubMed Central

Drake, John M.; Rohani, Pejman

2017-01-01

In spite of medical breakthroughs, the emergence of pathogens continues to pose threats to both human and animal populations. We present candidate approaches for anticipating disease emergence prior to large-scale outbreaks. Through use of ideas from the theories of dynamical systems and stochastic processes we develop approaches which are not specific to a particular disease system or model, but instead have general applicability. The indicators of disease emergence detailed in this paper can be classified into two parallel approaches: a set of early-warning signals based around the theory of critical slowing down and a likelihood-based approach. To test the reliability of these two approaches we contrast theoretical predictions with simulated data. We find good support for our methods across a range of different model structures and parameter values. PMID:28679666

Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...

Whole systems shared governance: a model for the integrated health system.

PubMed

Evan, K; Aubry, K; Hawkins, M; Curley, T A; Porter-O'Grady, T

1995-05-01

The healthcare system is under renovation and renewal. In the process, roles and structures are shifting to support a subscriber-based continuum of care. Alliances and partnerships are emerging as the models of integration for the future. But how do we structure to support these emerging integrated partnerships? As the nurse executive expands the role and assumes increasing responsibility for creating new frameworks for care, a structure that sustains the point-of-care innovations and interdisciplinary relationships must be built. Whole systems models of organization, such as shared governance, are expanding as demand grows for a sustainable structure for horizontal and partnered systems of healthcare delivery. The executive will have to apply these newer frameworks to the delivery of care to provide adequate support for the clinically integrated environment.

Quality of Care as an Emergent Phenomenon out of a Small-World Network of Relational Actors.

PubMed

Fiorini, Rodolfo; De Giacomo, Piero; Marconi, Pier Luigi; L'Abate, Luciano

2014-01-01

In Healthcare Decision Support System, the development and evaluation of effective "Quality of Care" (QOC) indicators, in simulation-based training, are key feature to develop resilient and antifragile organization scenarios. Is it possible to conceive of QOC not only as a result of a voluntary and rational decision, imposed or even not, but also as an overall system "emergent phenomenon" out of a small-world network of relational synthetic actors, endowed with their own personality profiles to simulate human behaviour (for short, called "subjects")? In order to answer this question and to observe the phenomena of real emergence we should use computational models of high complexity, with heavy computational load and extensive computational time. Nevertheless, De Giacomo's Elementary Pragmatic Model (EPM) intrinsic self-reflexive functional logical closure enables to run simulation examples to classify the outcomes grown out of a small-world network of relational subjects fast and effectively. Therefore, it is possible to take note and to learn of how much strategic systemic interventions can induce context conditions of QOC facilitation, which can improve the effectiveness of specific actions, which otherwise might be paradoxically counterproductive also. Early results are so encouraging to use EPM as basic block to start designing more powerful Evolutive Elementary Pragmatic Model (E2PM) for real emergence computational model, to cope with ontological uncertainty at system level.

Emerging trends in evolving networks: Recent behaviour dominant and non-dominant model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Khushnood; Shang, Mingsheng; Luo, Xin; Abbasi, Alireza

2017-10-01

Novel phenomenon receives similar attention as popular one. Therefore predicting novelty is as important as popularity. Emergence is the side effect of competition and ageing in evolving systems. Recent behaviour or recent link gain in networks plays an important role in emergence. We exploited this wisdom and came up with two models considering different scenarios and systems. Where recent behaviour dominates over total behaviour (total link gain) in the first one, and recent behaviour is as important as total behaviour for future link gain in the second one. It supposes that random walker walks on a network and can jump to any node, the probability of jumping or making a connection to other node is based on which node is recently more active or receiving more links. In our assumption, the random walker can also jump to the node which is already popular but recently not popular. We are able to predict emerging nodes which are generally suppressed under preferential attachment effect. To show the performance of our model we have conducted experiments on four real data sets namely, MovieLens, Netflix, Facebook and Arxiv High Energy Physics paper citation. For testing our model we used four information retrieval indices namely Precision, Novelty, Area Under Receiving Operating Characteristic (AUC) and Kendal's rank correlation coefficient. We have used four benchmark models for validating our proposed models. Although our model does not perform better in all the cases but, it has theoretical significance in working better for recent behaviour dominated systems.

A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

2016-06-05

In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modeling and simulation of emergent behavior in transportation infrastructure restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ojha, Akhilesh; Corns, Steven; Shoberg, Thomas G.; Qin, Ruwen; Long, Suzanna K.

2018-01-01

The objective of this chapter is to create a methodology to model the emergent behavior during a disruption in the transportation system and that calculates economic losses due to such a disruption, and to understand how an extreme event affects the road transportation network. The chapter discusses a system dynamics approach which is used to model the transportation road infrastructure system to evaluate the different factors that render road segments inoperable and calculate economic consequences of such inoperability. System dynamics models have been integrated with business process simulation model to evaluate, design, and optimize the business process. The chapter also explains how different factors affect the road capacity. After identifying the various factors affecting the available road capacity, a causal loop diagram (CLD) is created to visually represent the causes leading to a change in the available road capacity and the effects on travel costs when the available road capacity changes.

Comparison of emergency medical services systems in the pan-Asian resuscitation outcomes study countries: Report from a literature review and survey.

PubMed

Ong, Marcus E H; Cho, Jungheum; Ma, Matthew Huei-Ming; Tanaka, Hideharu; Nishiuchi, Tatsuya; Al Sakaf, Omer; Abdul Karim, Sarah; Khunkhlai, Nalinas; Atilla, Ridvan; Lin, Chih-Hao; Shahidah, Nur; Lie, Desiree; Shin, Sang Do

2013-02-01

Asia-Pacific countries have unique prehospital emergency care or emergency medical services (EMS) systems, which are different from European or Anglo-American models. We aimed to compare the EMS systems of eight Asia-Pacific countries/regions as part of the Pan Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS), to provide a basis for future comparative studies across systems of care. In the first phase, a systematic literature review of EMS system within the eight PAROS countries/regions of interest was conducted. In the second phase, PAROS site directors were surveyed for additional information about the demographics and characteristics of EMS services at their sites. The database and bibliography search identified 25 eligible articles. The survey of EMS systems was completed by seven PAROS directors. By combining information sources from phases 1 and 2, we found that all PAROS EMS systems were single-tiered, and most were public (vs private) and fire-based (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, Korea). Ambulance personnel were primarily emergency medical technicians and paramedics, except for Thailand and Turkey, whose personnel include nurses and physicians. Personnel were trained to use automated external defibrillators and have basic cardiac life support certification. The service capability of each EMS system in terms of dispatch, airway management and medications, for example, varied greatly. We found variation in the EMS systems across the eight Asia-Pacific countries/regions studied. The findings will inform the construction of a multinational Asia-Pacific research network for future comparative studies and could serve as a model for international research networks. © 2012 The Authors. EMA © 2012 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Comparison of Aircraft Models and Integration Schemes for Interval Management in the TRACON

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neogi, Natasha; Hagen, George E.; Herencia-Zapana, Heber

2012-01-01

Reusable models of common elements for communication, computation, decision and control in air traffic management are necessary in order to enable simulation, analysis and assurance of emergent properties, such as safety and stability, for a given operational concept. Uncertainties due to faults, such as dropped messages, along with non-linearities and sensor noise are an integral part of these models, and impact emergent system behavior. Flight control algorithms designed using a linearized version of the flight mechanics will exhibit error due to model uncertainty, and may not be stable outside a neighborhood of the given point of linearization. Moreover, the communication mechanism by which the sensed state of an aircraft is fed back to a flight control system (such as an ADS-B message) impacts the overall system behavior; both due to sensor noise as well as dropped messages (vacant samples). Additionally simulation of the flight controller system can exhibit further numerical instability, due to selection of the integration scheme and approximations made in the flight dynamics. We examine the theoretical and numerical stability of a speed controller under the Euler and Runge-Kutta schemes of integration, for the Maintain phase for a Mid-Term (2035-2045) Interval Management (IM) Operational Concept for descent and landing operations. We model uncertainties in communication due to missed ADS-B messages by vacant samples in the integration schemes, and compare the emergent behavior of the system, in terms of stability, via the boundedness of the final system state. Any bound on the errors incurred by these uncertainties will play an essential part in a composable assurance argument required for real-time, flight-deck guidance and control systems,. Thus, we believe that the creation of reusable models, which possess property guarantees, such as safety and stability, is an innovative and essential requirement to assessing the emergent properties of novel airspace concepts of operation.

Statistical Teleodynamics: Toward a Theory of Emergence.

PubMed

Venkatasubramanian, Venkat

2017-10-24

The central scientific challenge of the 21st century is developing a mathematical theory of emergence that can explain and predict phenomena such as consciousness and self-awareness. The most successful research program of the 20th century, reductionism, which goes from the whole to parts, seems unable to address this challenge. This is because addressing this challenge inherently requires an opposite approach, going from parts to the whole. In addition, reductionism, by the very nature of its inquiry, typically does not concern itself with teleology or purposeful behavior. Modeling emergence, in contrast, requires the addressing of teleology. Together, these two requirements present a formidable challenge in developing a successful mathematical theory of emergence. In this article, I describe a new theory of emergence, called statistical teleodynamics, that addresses certain aspects of the general problem. Statistical teleodynamics is a mathematical framework that unifies three seemingly disparate domains-purpose-free entities in statistical mechanics, human engineered teleological systems in systems engineering, and nature-evolved teleological systems in biology and sociology-within the same conceptual formalism. This theory rests on several key conceptual insights, the most important one being the recognition that entropy mathematically models the concept of fairness in economics and philosophy and, equivalently, the concept of robustness in systems engineering. These insights help prove that the fairest inequality of income is a log-normal distribution, which will emerge naturally at equilibrium in an ideal free market society. Similarly, the theory predicts the emergence of the three classes of network organization-exponential, scale-free, and Poisson-seen widely in a variety of domains. Statistical teleodynamics is the natural generalization of statistical thermodynamics, the most successful parts-to-whole systems theory to date, but this generalization is only a modest step toward a more comprehensive mathematical theory of emergence.

Analysis of the minimum swerving distance for the development of a motorcycle autonomous braking system.

PubMed

Giovannini, Federico; Savino, Giovanni; Pierini, Marco; Baldanzini, Niccolò

2013-10-01

In the recent years the autonomous emergency brake (AEB) was introduced in the automotive field to mitigate the injury severity in case of unavoidable collisions. A crucial element for the activation of the AEB is to establish when the obstacle is no longer avoidable by lateral evasive maneuvers (swerving). In the present paper a model to compute the minimum swerving distance needed by a powered two-wheeler (PTW) to avoid the collision against a fixed obstacle, named last-second swerving model (Lsw), is proposed. The effectiveness of the model was investigated by an experimental campaign involving 12 volunteers riding a scooter equipped with a prototype autonomous emergency braking, named motorcycle autonomous emergency braking system (MAEB). The tests showed the performance of the model in evasive trajectory computation for different riding styles and fixed obstacles. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a telemedicine model for emerging countries: a case study on pediatric oncology in Brazil.

PubMed

Hira, A Y; Nebel de Mello, A; Faria, R A; Odone Filho, V; Lopes, R D; Zuffo, M K

2006-01-01

This article discusses a telemedicine model for emerging countries, through the description of ONCONET, a telemedicine initiative applied to pediatric oncology in Brazil. The ONCONET core technology is a Web-based system that offers health information and other services specialized in childhood cancer such as electronic medical records and cooperative protocols for complex treatments. All Web-based services are supported by the use of high performance computing infrastructure based on clusters of commodity computers. The system was fully implemented on an open-source and free-software approach. Aspects of modeling, implementation and integration are covered. A model, both technologically and economically viable, was created through the research and development of in-house solutions adapted to the emerging countries reality and with focus on scalability both in the total number of patients and in the national infrastructure.

Emergent structure-function relations in emphysema and asthma.

PubMed

Winkler, Tilo; Suki, Béla

2011-01-01

Structure-function relationships in the respiratory system are often a result of the emergence of self-organized patterns or behaviors that are characteristic of certain respiratory diseases. Proper description of such self-organized behavior requires network models that include nonlinear interactions among different parts of the system. This review focuses on 2 models that exhibit self-organized behavior: a network model of the lung parenchyma during the progression of emphysema that is driven by mechanical force-induced breakdown, and an integrative model of bronchoconstriction in asthma that describes interactions among airways within the bronchial tree. Both models suggest that the transition from normal to pathologic states is a nonlinear process that includes a tipping point beyond which interactions among the system components are reinforced by positive feedback, further promoting the progression of pathologic changes. In emphysema, the progressive destruction of tissue is irreversible, while in asthma, it is possible to recover from a severe bronchoconstriction. These concepts may have implications for pulmonary medicine. Specifically, we suggest that structure-function relationships emerging from network behavior across multiple scales should be taken into account when the efficacy of novel treatments or drug therapy is evaluated. Multiscale, computational, network models will play a major role in this endeavor.

The Evolution of Integrated Assessment and Emerging Challenges in the Assessment of Human and Natural System Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, L.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment (IA) modeling and research has a long history, spanning over 30 years since its inception and addressing a wide range of contemporary issues along the way. Over the last decade, IA modeling and research has emerged as one of the primary analytical methods for understanding the complex interactions between human and natural systems, from the interactions between energy, water, and land/food systems to the interplay between health, climate, and air pollution. IA modeling and research is particularly well-suited for the analysis of these interactions because it is a discipline that strives to integrate representations of multiple systems into consistent computational platforms or frameworks. In doing so, it explicitly confronts the many tradeoffs that are frequently necessary to manage complexity and computational cost while still representing the most important interactions and overall, coupled system behavior. This talk explores the history of IA modeling and research as a means to better understand its role in the assessment of contemporary issues at the confluence of human and natural systems. It traces the evolution of IA modeling and research from initial exploration of long-term emissions pathways, to the role of technology in the global evolution of the energy system, to the key linkages between land and energy systems and, more recently, the linkages with water, air pollution, and other key systems and issues. It discusses the advances in modeling that have emerged over this evolution and the biggest challenges that still present themselves as we strive to better understand the most important interactions between human and natural systems and the implications of these interactions for human welfare and decision making.

The spread of European models of engineering education: the challenges faced in emerging countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardelle, Linda; Cardona Gil, Emmanuel; Benguerna, Mohamed; Bolat, Altangul; Naran, Boldmaa

2017-03-01

The major European models of engineering training (the German, the British and the French model) spread throughout the world during the twentieth century. Historical heritage, cultural proximity and languages explain the open expression of faithfulness to one system in some countries. In these countries, the national standards inherited are now completed by international standards or are in direct competition with new influences. This article will attempt, through the existing literature, interviews and on-site investigations, to analyse current engineering training in some emerging countries and its relations with European models, the objective being to analyse the evolution of local systems and so the challenges and issues raised by the dissemination of European models.

Factors influencing readiness to deploy in disaster response: findings from a cross-sectional survey of the Department of Veterans Affairs Disaster Emergency Medical Personnel System

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Disaster Emergency Medical Personnel System (DEMPS) program provides a system of volunteers whereby active or retired Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) personnel can register to be deployed to support other VA facilities or the nation during national emergencies or disasters. Both early and ongoing volunteer training is required to participate. Methods This study aims to identify factors that impact willingness to deploy in the event of an emergency. This analysis was based on responses from 2,385 survey respondents (response rate, 29%). Latent variable path models were developed and tested using the EQS structural equations modeling program. Background demographic variables of education, age, minority ethnicity, and female gender were used as predictors of intervening latent variables of DEMPS Volunteer Experience, Positive Attitude about Training, and Stress. The model had acceptable fit statistics, and all three intermediate latent variables significantly predicted the outcome latent variable Readiness to Deploy. Results DEMPS Volunteer Experience and a Positive Attitude about Training were associated with Readiness to Deploy. Stress was associated with decreased Readiness to Deploy. Female gender was negatively correlated with Readiness to Deploy; however, there was an indirect relationship between female gender and Readiness to Deploy through Positive Attitude about Training. Conclusions These findings suggest that volunteer emergency management response programs such as DEMPS should consider how best to address the factors that may make women less ready to deploy than men in order to ensure adequate gender representation among emergency responders. The findings underscore the importance of training opportunities to ensure that gender-sensitive support is a strong component of emergency response, and may apply to other emergency response programs such as the Medical Reserve Corps and the American Red Cross. PMID:25038628

Factors influencing readiness to deploy in disaster response: findings from a cross-sectional survey of the Department of Veterans Affairs Disaster Emergency Medical Personnel System.

PubMed

Zagelbaum, Nicole K; Heslin, Kevin C; Stein, Judith A; Ruzek, Josef; Smith, Robert E; Nyugen, Tam; Dobalian, Aram

2014-07-19

The Disaster Emergency Medical Personnel System (DEMPS) program provides a system of volunteers whereby active or retired Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) personnel can register to be deployed to support other VA facilities or the nation during national emergencies or disasters. Both early and ongoing volunteer training is required to participate. This study aims to identify factors that impact willingness to deploy in the event of an emergency. This analysis was based on responses from 2,385 survey respondents (response rate, 29%). Latent variable path models were developed and tested using the EQS structural equations modeling program. Background demographic variables of education, age, minority ethnicity, and female gender were used as predictors of intervening latent variables of DEMPS Volunteer Experience, Positive Attitude about Training, and Stress. The model had acceptable fit statistics, and all three intermediate latent variables significantly predicted the outcome latent variable Readiness to Deploy. DEMPS Volunteer Experience and a Positive Attitude about Training were associated with Readiness to Deploy. Stress was associated with decreased Readiness to Deploy. Female gender was negatively correlated with Readiness to Deploy; however, there was an indirect relationship between female gender and Readiness to Deploy through Positive Attitude about Training. These findings suggest that volunteer emergency management response programs such as DEMPS should consider how best to address the factors that may make women less ready to deploy than men in order to ensure adequate gender representation among emergency responders. The findings underscore the importance of training opportunities to ensure that gender-sensitive support is a strong component of emergency response, and may apply to other emergency response programs such as the Medical Reserve Corps and the American Red Cross.

Complex networks as an emerging property of hierarchical preferential attachment.

PubMed

Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Laurence, Edward; Allard, Antoine; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Dubé, Louis J

2015-12-01

Real complex systems are not rigidly structured; no clear rules or blueprints exist for their construction. Yet, amidst their apparent randomness, complex structural properties universally emerge. We propose that an important class of complex systems can be modeled as an organization of many embedded levels (potentially infinite in number), all of them following the same universal growth principle known as preferential attachment. We give examples of such hierarchy in real systems, for instance, in the pyramid of production entities of the film industry. More importantly, we show how real complex networks can be interpreted as a projection of our model, from which their scale independence, their clustering, their hierarchy, their fractality, and their navigability naturally emerge. Our results suggest that complex networks, viewed as growing systems, can be quite simple, and that the apparent complexity of their structure is largely a reflection of their unobserved hierarchical nature.

Complex networks as an emerging property of hierarchical preferential attachment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Laurence, Edward; Allard, Antoine; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Dubé, Louis J.

2015-12-01

Real complex systems are not rigidly structured; no clear rules or blueprints exist for their construction. Yet, amidst their apparent randomness, complex structural properties universally emerge. We propose that an important class of complex systems can be modeled as an organization of many embedded levels (potentially infinite in number), all of them following the same universal growth principle known as preferential attachment. We give examples of such hierarchy in real systems, for instance, in the pyramid of production entities of the film industry. More importantly, we show how real complex networks can be interpreted as a projection of our model, from which their scale independence, their clustering, their hierarchy, their fractality, and their navigability naturally emerge. Our results suggest that complex networks, viewed as growing systems, can be quite simple, and that the apparent complexity of their structure is largely a reflection of their unobserved hierarchical nature.

Emergent transport in a many-body open system driven by interacting quantum baths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reisons, Juris; Mascarenhas, Eduardo; Savona, Vincenzo

2017-10-01

We analyze an open many-body system that is strongly coupled at its boundaries to interacting quantum baths. We show that the two-body interactions inside the baths induce emergent phenomena in the spin transport. The system and baths are modeled as independent spin chains resulting in a global nonhomogeneous X X Z model. The evolution of the system-bath state is simulated using matrix-product-states methods. We present two phase transitions induced by bath interactions. For weak bath interactions we observe ballistic and insulating phases. However, for strong bath interactions a diffusive phase emerges with a distinct power-law decay of the time-dependent spin current Q ∝t-α . Furthermore, we investigate long-lasting current oscillations arising from the non-Markovian dynamics in the homogeneous case and find a sharp change in their frequency scaling coinciding with the triple point of the phase diagram.

Potential for Integrating Diffusion of Innovation Principles into Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies.

PubMed

Sharp, Benjamin E; Miller, Shelie A

2016-03-15

Life cycle assessment (LCA) measures cradle-to-grave environmental impacts of a product. To assess impacts of an emerging technology, LCA should be coupled with additional methods that estimate how that technology might be deployed. The extent and manner that an emerging technology diffuses throughout a region shapes the magnitude and type of environmental impacts. Diffusion of innovation is an established field of research that analyzes the adoption of new innovations, and its principles can be used to construct scenario models that enhance LCA of emerging technologies. Integrating diffusion modeling techniques with an LCA of emerging technology can provide estimates for the extent of market penetration, the displacement of existing systems, and the rate of adoption. Two general perspectives of application are macro-level diffusion models that use a function of time to represent adoption, and microlevel diffusion models that simulate adoption through interactions of individuals. Incorporating diffusion of innovation concepts complement existing methods within LCA to inform proactive environmental management of emerging technologies.

Field Tests of a Tractor Rollover Detection and Emergency Notification System.

PubMed

Liu, B; Koc, A B

2015-04-01

The objective of this research was to assess the feasibility of a rollover detection and emergency notification system for farm tractors using field tests. The emergency notification system was developed based on a tractor stability model and implemented on a mobile electronic device with the iOS operating system. A complementary filter was implemented to combine the data from the accelerometer and gyroscope sensors to improve their accuracies in calculating the roll and pitch angles and the roll and pitch rates. The system estimates a stability index value during tractor operation, displays feedback messages when the stability index is lower than a preset threshold value, and transmits emergency notification messages when an overturn happens. Ten tractor rollover tests were conducted on a field track. The developed system successfully monitored the stability of the tractor during all of the tests. The iOS application was able to detect rollover accidents and transmit emergency notifications in the form of a phone call and email when an accident was detected. The system can be a useful tool for training and education in safe tractor operation. The system also has potential for stability monitoring and emergency notification of other on-road and off-road motorized vehicles.

Social determinants of health inequalities: towards a theoretical perspective using systems science.

PubMed

Jayasinghe, Saroj

2015-08-25

A systems approach offers a novel conceptualization to natural and social systems. In recent years, this has led to perceiving population health outcomes as an emergent property of a dynamic and open, complex adaptive system. The current paper explores these themes further and applies the principles of systems approach and complexity science (i.e. systems science) to conceptualize social determinants of health inequalities. The conceptualization can be done in two steps: viewing health inequalities from a systems approach and extending it to include complexity science. Systems approach views health inequalities as patterns within the larger rubric of other facets of the human condition, such as educational outcomes and economic development. This anlysis requires more sophisticated models such as systems dynamic models. An extension of the approach is to view systems as complex adaptive systems, i.e. systems that are 'open' and adapt to the environment. They consist of dynamic adapting subsystems that exhibit non-linear interactions, while being 'open' to a similarly dynamic environment of interconnected systems. They exhibit emergent properties that cannot be estimated with precision by using the known interactions among its components (such as economic development, political freedom, health system, culture etc.). Different combinations of the same bundle of factors or determinants give rise to similar patterns or outcomes (i.e. property of convergence), and minor variations in the initial condition could give rise to widely divergent outcomes. Novel approaches using computer simulation models (e.g. agent-based models) would shed light on possible mechanisms as to how factors or determinants interact and lead to emergent patterns of health inequalities of populations.

Research of an emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents in Shanghai, China: a system dynamics model.

PubMed

Yu, Wenya; Lv, Yipeng; Hu, Chaoqun; Liu, Xu; Chen, Haiping; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu

2018-01-01

Emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents (EMS-MCIs) is a global issue. However, China lacks such studies extremely, which cannot meet the requirement of rapid decision-support system. This study aims to realize modeling EMS-MCIs in Shanghai, to improve mass casualty incident (MCI) rescue efficiency in China, and to provide a possible method of making rapid rescue decisions during MCIs. This study established a system dynamics (SD) model of EMS-MCIs using the Vensim DSS program. Intervention scenarios were designed as adjusting scales of MCIs, allocation of ambulances, allocation of emergency medical staff, and efficiency of organization and command. Mortality increased with the increasing scale of MCIs, medical rescue capability of hospitals was relatively good, but the efficiency of organization and command was poor, and the prehospital time was too long. Mortality declined significantly when increasing ambulances and improving the efficiency of organization and command; triage and on-site first-aid time were shortened if increasing the availability of emergency medical staff. The effect was the most evident when 2,000 people were involved in MCIs; however, the influence was very small under the scale of 5,000 people. The keys to decrease the mortality of MCIs were shortening the prehospital time and improving the efficiency of organization and command. For small-scale MCIs, improving the utilization rate of health resources was important in decreasing the mortality. For large-scale MCIs, increasing the number of ambulances and emergency medical professionals was the core to decrease prehospital time and mortality. For super-large-scale MCIs, increasing health resources was the premise.

A model of economic growth with physical and human capital: The role of time delays.

PubMed

Gori, Luca; Guerrini, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

2016-09-01

This article aims at analysing a two-sector economic growth model with discrete delays. The focus is on the dynamic properties of the emerging system. In particular, this study concentrates on the stability properties of the stationary solution, characterised by analytical results and geometrical techniques (stability crossing curves), and the conditions under which oscillatory dynamics emerge (through Hopf bifurcations). In addition, this article proposes some numerical simulations to illustrate the behaviour of the system when the stationary equilibrium is unstable.

Emergence of heterogeneity and political organization in information exchange networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guttenberg, Nicholas; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2010-04-01

We present a simple model of the emergence of the division of labor and the development of a system of resource subsidy from an agent-based model of directed resource production with variable degrees of trust between the agents. The model has three distinct phases corresponding to different forms of societal organization: disconnected (independent agents), homogeneous cooperative (collective state), and inhomogeneous cooperative (collective state with a leader). Our results indicate that such levels of organization arise generically as a collective effect from interacting agent dynamics and may have applications in a variety of systems including social insects and microbial communities.

Mathematical Analysis for Non-reciprocal-interaction-based Model of Collective Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kano, Takeshi; Osuka, Koichi; Kawakatsu, Toshihiro; Ishiguro, Akio

2017-12-01

In many natural and social systems, collective behaviors emerge as a consequence of non-reciprocal interaction between their constituents. As a first step towards understanding the core principle that underlies these phenomena, we previously proposed a minimal model of collective behavior based on non-reciprocal interactions by drawing inspiration from friendship formation in human society, and demonstrated via simulations that various non-trivial patterns emerge by changing parameters. In this study, a mathematical analysis of the proposed model wherein the system size is small is performed. Through the analysis, the mechanism of the transition between several patterns is elucidated.

Emergence of heterogeneity and political organization in information exchange networks.

PubMed

Guttenberg, Nicholas; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2010-04-01

We present a simple model of the emergence of the division of labor and the development of a system of resource subsidy from an agent-based model of directed resource production with variable degrees of trust between the agents. The model has three distinct phases corresponding to different forms of societal organization: disconnected (independent agents), homogeneous cooperative (collective state), and inhomogeneous cooperative (collective state with a leader). Our results indicate that such levels of organization arise generically as a collective effect from interacting agent dynamics and may have applications in a variety of systems including social insects and microbial communities.

Information slows down hierarchy growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czaplicka, Agnieszka; Suchecki, Krzysztof; Miñano, Borja; Trias, Miquel; Hołyst, Janusz A.

2014-06-01

We consider models of growing multilevel systems wherein the growth process is driven by rules of tournament selection. A system can be conceived as an evolving tree with a new node being attached to a contestant node at the best hierarchy level (a level nearest to the tree root). The proposed evolution reflects limited information on system properties available to new nodes. It can also be expressed in terms of population dynamics. Two models are considered: a constant tournament (CT) model wherein the number of tournament participants is constant throughout system evolution, and a proportional tournament (PT) model where this number increases proportionally to the growing size of the system itself. The results of analytical calculations based on a rate equation fit well to numerical simulations for both models. In the CT model all hierarchy levels emerge, but the birth time of a consecutive hierarchy level increases exponentially or faster for each new level. The number of nodes at the first hierarchy level grows logarithmically in time, while the size of the last, "worst" hierarchy level oscillates quasi-log-periodically. In the PT model, the occupations of the first two hierarchy levels increase linearly, but worse hierarchy levels either do not emerge at all or appear only by chance in the early stage of system evolution to further stop growing at all. The results allow us to conclude that information available to each new node in tournament dynamics restrains the emergence of new hierarchy levels and that it is the absolute amount of information, not relative, which governs such behavior.

Information slows down hierarchy growth.

PubMed

Czaplicka, Agnieszka; Suchecki, Krzysztof; Miñano, Borja; Trias, Miquel; Hołyst, Janusz A

2014-06-01

We consider models of growing multilevel systems wherein the growth process is driven by rules of tournament selection. A system can be conceived as an evolving tree with a new node being attached to a contestant node at the best hierarchy level (a level nearest to the tree root). The proposed evolution reflects limited information on system properties available to new nodes. It can also be expressed in terms of population dynamics. Two models are considered: a constant tournament (CT) model wherein the number of tournament participants is constant throughout system evolution, and a proportional tournament (PT) model where this number increases proportionally to the growing size of the system itself. The results of analytical calculations based on a rate equation fit well to numerical simulations for both models. In the CT model all hierarchy levels emerge, but the birth time of a consecutive hierarchy level increases exponentially or faster for each new level. The number of nodes at the first hierarchy level grows logarithmically in time, while the size of the last, "worst" hierarchy level oscillates quasi-log-periodically. In the PT model, the occupations of the first two hierarchy levels increase linearly, but worse hierarchy levels either do not emerge at all or appear only by chance in the early stage of system evolution to further stop growing at all. The results allow us to conclude that information available to each new node in tournament dynamics restrains the emergence of new hierarchy levels and that it is the absolute amount of information, not relative, which governs such behavior.

An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

2009-07-01

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

Moving From Static to Dynamic Models of the Onset of Mental Disorder: A Review.

PubMed

Nelson, Barnaby; McGorry, Patrick D; Wichers, Marieke; Wigman, Johanna T W; Hartmann, Jessica A

2017-05-01

In recent years, there has been increased focus on subthreshold stages of mental disorders, with attempts to model and predict which individuals will progress to full-threshold disorder. Given this research attention and the clinical significance of the issue, this article analyzes the assumptions of the theoretical models in the field. Psychiatric research into predicting the onset of mental disorder has shown an overreliance on one-off sampling of cross-sectional data (ie, a snapshot of clinical state and other risk markers) and may benefit from taking dynamic changes into account in predictive modeling. Cross-disciplinary approaches to complex system structures and changes, such as dynamical systems theory, network theory, instability mechanisms, chaos theory, and catastrophe theory, offer potent models that can be applied to the emergence (or decline) of psychopathology, including psychosis prediction, as well as to transdiagnostic emergence of symptoms. Psychiatric research may benefit from approaching psychopathology as a system rather than as a category, identifying dynamics of system change (eg, abrupt vs gradual psychosis onset), and determining the factors to which these systems are most sensitive (eg, interpersonal dynamics and neurochemical change) and the individual variability in system architecture and change. These goals can be advanced by testing hypotheses that emerge from cross-disciplinary models of complex systems. Future studies require repeated longitudinal assessment of relevant variables through either (or a combination of) micro-level (momentary and day-to-day) and macro-level (month and year) assessments. Ecological momentary assessment is a data collection technique appropriate for micro-level assessment. Relevant statistical approaches are joint modeling and time series analysis, including metric-based and model-based methods that draw on the mathematical principles of dynamical systems. This next generation of prediction studies may more accurately model the dynamic nature of psychopathology and system change as well as have treatment implications, such as introducing a means of identifying critical periods of risk for mental state deterioration.

Study on Mine Emergency Mechanism based on TARP and ICS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xi, Jian; Wu, Zongzhi

2018-01-01

By analyzing the experiences and practices of mine emergency in China and abroad, especially the United States and Australia, normative principle, risk management principle and adaptability principle of constructing mine emergency mechanism based on Trigger Action Response Plans (TARP) and Incident Command System (ICS) are summarized. Classification method, framework, flow and subject of TARP and ICS which are suitable for the actual situation of domestic mine emergency are proposed. The system dynamics model of TARP and ICS is established. The parameters such as evacuation ratio, response rate, per capita emergency capability and entry rate of rescuers are set up. By simulating the operation process of TARP and ICS, the impact of these parameters on the emergency process are analyzed, which could provide a reference and basis for building emergency capacity, formulating emergency plans and setting up action plans in the emergency process.

Emerging Technologies to Create Inducible and Genetically Defined Porcine Cancer Models.

PubMed

Schook, Lawrence B; Rund, Laurie; Begnini, Karine R; Remião, Mariana H; Seixas, Fabiana K; Collares, Tiago

2016-01-01

There is an emerging need for new animal models that address unmet translational cancer research requirements. Transgenic porcine models provide an exceptional opportunity due to their genetic, anatomic, and physiological similarities with humans. Due to recent advances in the sequencing of domestic animal genomes and the development of new organism cloning technologies, it is now very feasible to utilize pigs as a malleable species, with similar anatomic and physiological features with humans, in which to develop cancer models. In this review, we discuss genetic modification technologies successfully used to produce porcine biomedical models, in particular the Cre-loxP System as well as major advances and perspectives the CRISPR/Cas9 System. Recent advancements in porcine tumor modeling and genome editing will bring porcine models to the forefront of translational cancer research.

Optimum testing intervals of building emergency power supply systems in tall buildings in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, Yu Fat

The main objective of this study is to develop a model for the determination of optimum testing interval (OTI) of non-redundant standby plants. This study focuses on the emergency power generators in tall buildings in Hong Kong. The model for the reliability, which is developed, is applicable to any non-duplicated standby plant. In a tall building, the mobilisation of occupants is constrained by its height and the building internal layout. Occupant's safety, amongst other safety considerations, highly depends on the reliability of the fire detection and protection system, which in turn is dependent on the reliability of the emergency power generation plants. A thorough literature survey shows that the practice used in determining OTI in nuclear plants is generally applicable. Historically, the OTI in these plants is determined by balancing the testing downtime and reliability gained from frequent testing. However, testing downtime does not exist in plants like emergency power generator. Subsequently, sophisticated models have taken repairing downtime into consideration. In this study, the algorithms for the determination of OTI, and hence reliability of standby plants, are reconsidered. A new concept is introduced into the subject. A new model is developed for such purposes which embraces more realistic factors found in practice. System aging and the finite life cycle of the standby plant are considered. Somewhat more pragmatic is that the Optimum Overhauling Interval can also be determined from this new model. System unavailability grow with time, but can be reset by test or overhaul. Contrary to fixed testing intervals, OTI is determined whenever system point unavailability exceeds certain level, which depends on the reliability requirement of the standby system. An optimum testing plan for lowering this level to the 'minimum useful unavailability' level (see section 9.1 for more elaboration) can be determined by the new model presented. Cost effectiveness is accounted for by a new parameter 'tau min', the minimum testing interval (MTI). The MTI optimises the total number of tests and the total number of overhauls, when the costs for each are available. The model sets up criteria for test and overhaul and to 'announce' end of system life. The usefulness of the model is validated by a detailed analysis of the operating parameters from 8,500 maintenance records collected for emergency power generation plants in high rise buildings in Hong Kong. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

2016-01-01

The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an emergent literacy model for the analysis of the characteristics of future dyslexic children and normally reading peers in Italian, a transparent writing system. A cohort of 450 children was followed from the last year of kindergarten to the third grade in their reading acquisition process. Dyslexic children were individuated (Grade 3), and their performances in kindergarten in textual competence, phonological awareness, and conceptual knowledge of the writing system were compared with a matched group of normally reading peers. Results showed the predictive relevance of the conceptual knowledge of the writing system. The study's implications are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2014.

Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

Redesigning Urban Districts in the USA: Mayoral Accountability and the Diverse Provider Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Kenneth K.

2011-01-01

In response to public pressure, urban districts in the USA have initiated reforms that aim at redrawing the boundaries between the school system and other major local institutions. More specifically, this article focuses on two emerging reform strategies. We will examine an emerging model of governance that enables big-city mayors to establish…

Handling Emergency Management in [an] Object Oriented Modeling Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tokgoz, Berna Eren; Cakir, Volkan; Gheorghe, Adrian V.

2010-01-01

It has been understood that protection of a nation from extreme disasters is a challenging task. Impacts of extreme disasters on a nation's critical infrastructures, economy and society could be devastating. A protection plan itself would not be sufficient when a disaster strikes. Hence, there is a need for a holistic approach to establish more resilient infrastructures to withstand extreme disasters. A resilient infrastructure can be defined as a system or facility that is able to withstand damage, but if affected, can be readily and cost-effectively restored. The key issue to establish resilient infrastructures is to incorporate existing protection plans with comprehensive preparedness actions to respond, recover and restore as quickly as possible, and to minimize extreme disaster impacts. Although national organizations will respond to a disaster, extreme disasters need to be handled mostly by local emergency management departments. Since emergency management departments have to deal with complex systems, they have to have a manageable plan and efficient organizational structures to coordinate all these systems. A strong organizational structure is the key in responding fast before and during disasters, and recovering quickly after disasters. In this study, the entire emergency management is viewed as an enterprise and modelled through enterprise management approach. Managing an enterprise or a large complex system is a very challenging task. It is critical for an enterprise to respond to challenges in a timely manner with quick decision making. This study addresses the problem of handling emergency management at regional level in an object oriented modelling environment developed by use of TopEase software. Emergency Operation Plan of the City of Hampton, Virginia, has been incorporated into TopEase for analysis. The methodology used in this study has been supported by a case study on critical infrastructure resiliency in Hampton Roads.

Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling.

PubMed

Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.

Uniting Statistical and Individual-Based Approaches for Animal Movement Modelling

PubMed Central

Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems. PMID:24979047

Modeling Psychological Attributes in Psychology – An Epistemological Discussion: Network Analysis vs. Latent Variables

PubMed Central

Guyon, Hervé; Falissard, Bruno; Kop, Jean-Luc

2017-01-01

Network Analysis is considered as a new method that challenges Latent Variable models in inferring psychological attributes. With Network Analysis, psychological attributes are derived from a complex system of components without the need to call on any latent variables. But the ontological status of psychological attributes is not adequately defined with Network Analysis, because a psychological attribute is both a complex system and a property emerging from this complex system. The aim of this article is to reappraise the legitimacy of latent variable models by engaging in an ontological and epistemological discussion on psychological attributes. Psychological attributes relate to the mental equilibrium of individuals embedded in their social interactions, as robust attractors within complex dynamic processes with emergent properties, distinct from physical entities located in precise areas of the brain. Latent variables thus possess legitimacy, because the emergent properties can be conceptualized and analyzed on the sole basis of their manifestations, without exploring the upstream complex system. However, in opposition with the usual Latent Variable models, this article is in favor of the integration of a dynamic system of manifestations. Latent Variables models and Network Analysis thus appear as complementary approaches. New approaches combining Latent Network Models and Network Residuals are certainly a promising new way to infer psychological attributes, placing psychological attributes in an inter-subjective dynamic approach. Pragmatism-realism appears as the epistemological framework required if we are to use latent variables as representations of psychological attributes. PMID:28572780

Grass Grows, the Cow Eats: A Simple Grazing Systems Model with Emergent Properties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ungar, Eugene David; Seligman, Noam G.; Noy-Meir, Imanuel

2004-01-01

We describe a simple, yet intellectually challenging model of grazing systems that introduces basic concepts in ecology and systems analysis. The practical is suitable for high-school and university curricula with a quantitative orientation, and requires only basic skills in mathematics and spreadsheet use. The model is based on Noy-Meir's (1975)…

Developing an analytical tool for evaluating EMS system design changes and their impact on cardiac arrest outcomes: combining geographic information systems with register data on survival rates

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a frequent and acute medical condition that requires immediate care. We estimate survival rates from OHCA in the area of Stockholm, through developing an analytical tool for evaluating Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system design changes. The study also is an attempt to validate the proposed model used to generate the outcome measures for the study. Methods and results This was done by combining a geographic information systems (GIS) simulation of driving times with register data on survival rates. The emergency resources comprised ambulance alone and ambulance plus fire services. The simulation model predicted a baseline survival rate of 3.9 per cent, and reducing the ambulance response time by one minute increased survival to 4.6 per cent. Adding the fire services as first responders (dual dispatch) increased survival to 6.2 per cent from the baseline level. The model predictions were validated using empirical data. Conclusion We have presented an analytical tool that easily can be generalized to other regions or countries. The model can be used to predict outcomes of cardiac arrest prior to investment in EMS design changes that affect the alarm process, e.g. (1) static changes such as trimming the emergency call handling time or (2) dynamic changes such as location of emergency resources or which resources should carry a defibrillator. PMID:23415045

Emergent Literacy and Reading Acquisition: A Longitudinal Study from Kindergarten to Primary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinto, Giuliana; Bigozzi, Lucia; Vezzani, Claudio; Tarchi, Christian

2017-01-01

This study explores the predictivity of an emergent literacy model on the acquisition of reading in primary school in a language with a transparent writing system. As writing systems have different levels of transparency, results cannot be easily transferred between languages. In this study, we explored the predictivity of phonological awareness,…

Solving Immunology?

PubMed Central

Vodovotz, Yoram; Xia, Ashley; Read, Elizabeth L.; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Hafler, David A.; Sontag, Eduardo; Wang, Jin; Tsang, John S.; Day, Judy D.; Kleinstein, Steven; Butte, Atul J.; Altman, Matthew C; Hammond, Ross; Sealfon, Stuart C.

2016-01-01

Emergent responses of the immune system result from integration of molecular and cellular networks over time and across multiple organs. High-content and high-throughput analysis technologies, concomitantly with data-driven and mechanistic modeling, hold promise for systematic interrogation of these complex pathways. However, connecting genetic variation and molecular mechanisms to individual phenotypes and health outcomes has proven elusive. Gaps remain in data, and disagreements persist about the value of mechanistic modeling for immunology. Here, we present the perspectives that emerged from the NIAID workshop “Complex Systems Science, Modeling and Immunity” and subsequent discussions regarding the potential synergy of high-throughput data acquisition, data-driven modeling and mechanistic modeling to define new mechanisms of immunological disease and to accelerate the translation of these insights into therapies. PMID:27986392

A cross-functional service-oriented architecture to support real-time information exchange in emergency medical response.

PubMed

Hauenstein, Logan; Gao, Tia; Sze, Tsz Wo; Crawford, David; Alm, Alex; White, David

2006-01-01

Real-time information communication presents a persistent challenge to the emergency response community. During a medical emergency, various first response disciplines including Emergency Medical Service (EMS), Fire, and Police, and multiple health service facilities including hospitals, auxiliary care centers and public health departments using disparate information technology systems must coordinate their efforts by sharing real-time information. This paper describes a service-oriented architecture (SOA) that uses shared data models of emergency incidents to support the exchange of data between heterogeneous systems. This architecture is employed in the Advanced Health and Disaster Aid Network (AID-N) system, a testbed investigating information technologies to improve interoperation among multiple emergency response organizations in the Washington DC Metropolitan region. This architecture allows us to enable real-time data communication between three deployed systems: 1) a pre-hospital patient care reporting software system used on all ambulances in Arlington County, Virginia (MICHAELS), 2) a syndromic surveillance system used by public health departments in the Washington area (ESSENCE), and 3) a hazardous material reference software system (WISER) developed by the National Library Medicine. Additionally, we have extended our system to communicate with three new data sources: 1) wireless automated vital sign sensors worn by patients, 2) web portals for admitting hospitals, and 3) PDAs used by first responders at emergency scenes to input data (SIRP).

SPARK: A Framework for Multi-Scale Agent-Based Biomedical Modeling.

PubMed

Solovyev, Alexey; Mikheev, Maxim; Zhou, Leming; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Ziraldo, Cordelia; An, Gary; Vodovotz, Yoram; Mi, Qi

2010-01-01

Multi-scale modeling of complex biological systems remains a central challenge in the systems biology community. A method of dynamic knowledge representation known as agent-based modeling enables the study of higher level behavior emerging from discrete events performed by individual components. With the advancement of computer technology, agent-based modeling has emerged as an innovative technique to model the complexities of systems biology. In this work, the authors describe SPARK (Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge), a framework for agent-based modeling specifically designed for systems-level biomedical model development. SPARK is a stand-alone application written in Java. It provides a user-friendly interface, and a simple programming language for developing Agent-Based Models (ABMs). SPARK has the following features specialized for modeling biomedical systems: 1) continuous space that can simulate real physical space; 2) flexible agent size and shape that can represent the relative proportions of various cell types; 3) multiple spaces that can concurrently simulate and visualize multiple scales in biomedical models; 4) a convenient graphical user interface. Existing ABMs of diabetic foot ulcers and acute inflammation were implemented in SPARK. Models of identical complexity were run in both NetLogo and SPARK; the SPARK-based models ran two to three times faster.

An environmental scan of emergency response systems and services in remote First Nations communities in Northern Ontario.

PubMed

Mew, E J; Ritchie, S D; VanderBurgh, D; Beardy, J L; Gordon, J; Fortune, M; Mamakwa, S; Orkin, A M

2017-01-01

Approximately 24,000 Ontarians live in remote Indigenous communities with no road access. These communities are a subset of Nishnawbe Aski Nation (NAN), a political grouping of 49 First Nations communities in Northern Ontario, Canada. Limited information is available regarding the status of emergency care in these communities. We aimed to understand emergency response systems, services, and training in remote NAN communities. We used an environmental scan approach to compile information from multiple sources including community-based participatory research. This included the analysis of data collected from key informant interviews (n=10) with First Nations community health leaders and a multi-stakeholder roundtable meeting (n=33) in October 2013. Qualitative analysis of the interview data revealed four issues related to emergency response systems and training: (1) inequity in response capacity and services, (2) lack of formalised dispatch systems, (3) turnover and burnout in volunteer emergency services, and (4) challenges related to first aid training. Roundtable stakeholders supported the development of a community-based emergency care system to address gaps. Existing first response, paramedical, and ambulance service models do not meet the unique geographical, epidemiological and cultural needs in most NAN communities. Sustainable, context-appropriate, and culturally relevant emergency care systems are needed.

Root Systems Biology: Integrative Modeling across Scales, from Gene Regulatory Networks to the Rhizosphere1

PubMed Central

Hill, Kristine; Porco, Silvana; Lobet, Guillaume; Zappala, Susan; Mooney, Sacha; Draye, Xavier; Bennett, Malcolm J.

2013-01-01

Genetic and genomic approaches in model organisms have advanced our understanding of root biology over the last decade. Recently, however, systems biology and modeling have emerged as important approaches, as our understanding of root regulatory pathways has become more complex and interpreting pathway outputs has become less intuitive. To relate root genotype to phenotype, we must move beyond the examination of interactions at the genetic network scale and employ multiscale modeling approaches to predict emergent properties at the tissue, organ, organism, and rhizosphere scales. Understanding the underlying biological mechanisms and the complex interplay between systems at these different scales requires an integrative approach. Here, we describe examples of such approaches and discuss the merits of developing models to span multiple scales, from network to population levels, and to address dynamic interactions between plants and their environment. PMID:24143806

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.

2009-12-01

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment,more » and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.« less

Research of an emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents in Shanghai, China: a system dynamics model

PubMed Central

Liu, Xu; Chen, Haiping; Xue, Chen

2018-01-01

Objectives Emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents (EMS-MCIs) is a global issue. However, China lacks such studies extremely, which cannot meet the requirement of rapid decision-support system. This study aims to realize modeling EMS-MCIs in Shanghai, to improve mass casualty incident (MCI) rescue efficiency in China, and to provide a possible method of making rapid rescue decisions during MCIs. Methods This study established a system dynamics (SD) model of EMS-MCIs using the Vensim DSS program. Intervention scenarios were designed as adjusting scales of MCIs, allocation of ambulances, allocation of emergency medical staff, and efficiency of organization and command. Results Mortality increased with the increasing scale of MCIs, medical rescue capability of hospitals was relatively good, but the efficiency of organization and command was poor, and the prehospital time was too long. Mortality declined significantly when increasing ambulances and improving the efficiency of organization and command; triage and on-site first-aid time were shortened if increasing the availability of emergency medical staff. The effect was the most evident when 2,000 people were involved in MCIs; however, the influence was very small under the scale of 5,000 people. Conclusion The keys to decrease the mortality of MCIs were shortening the prehospital time and improving the efficiency of organization and command. For small-scale MCIs, improving the utilization rate of health resources was important in decreasing the mortality. For large-scale MCIs, increasing the number of ambulances and emergency medical professionals was the core to decrease prehospital time and mortality. For super-large-scale MCIs, increasing health resources was the premise. PMID:29440876

Evaluating the Reliability of Emergency Response Systems for Large-Scale Incident Operations

PubMed Central

Jackson, Brian A.; Faith, Kay Sullivan; Willis, Henry H.

2012-01-01

Abstract The ability to measure emergency preparedness—to predict the likely performance of emergency response systems in future events—is critical for policy analysis in homeland security. Yet it remains difficult to know how prepared a response system is to deal with large-scale incidents, whether it be a natural disaster, terrorist attack, or industrial or transportation accident. This research draws on the fields of systems analysis and engineering to apply the concept of system reliability to the evaluation of emergency response systems. The authors describe a method for modeling an emergency response system; identifying how individual parts of the system might fail; and assessing the likelihood of each failure and the severity of its effects on the overall response effort. The authors walk the reader through two applications of this method: a simplified example in which responders must deliver medical treatment to a certain number of people in a specified time window, and a more complex scenario involving the release of chlorine gas. The authors also describe an exploratory analysis in which they parsed a set of after-action reports describing real-world incidents, to demonstrate how this method can be used to quantitatively analyze data on past response performance. The authors conclude with a discussion of how this method of measuring emergency response system reliability could inform policy discussion of emergency preparedness, how system reliability might be improved, and the costs of doing so. PMID:28083267

Comprehending emergent systems phenomena through direct-manipulation animation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguirre, Priscilla Abel

This study seeks to understand the type of interaction mode that best supports learning and comprehension of emergent systems phenomena. Given that the literature has established that students hold robust misconceptions of such phenomena, this study investigates the influence of using three types of interaction; speed-manipulation animation (SMN), post-manipulation animation (PMA) and direct-manipulation animation (DMA) for increasing comprehension and testing transfer of the phenomena, by looking at the effect of simultaneous interaction of haptic and visual channels on long term and working memories when seeking to comprehend emergent phenomena. The questions asked were: (1) Does the teaching of emergent phenomena, with the aid of a dynamic interactive modeling tool (i.e., SMA, PMA or DMA), improve students' mental model construction of systems, thus increasing comprehension of this scientific concept? And (2) does the teaching of emergent phenomena, with the aid of a dynamic interactive modeling tool, give the students the necessary complex cognitive skill which can then be applied to similar (near transfer) and/or novel, but different, (far transfer) scenarios? In an empirical study undergraduate and graduate students were asked to participate in one of three experimental conditions: SMA, PMA, or DMA. The results of the study found that it was the participants of the SMA treatment condition that had the most improvement in post-test scores. Students' understanding of the phenomena increased most when they used a dynamic model with few interactive elements (i.e., start, stop, and speed) that allowed for real time visualization of one's interaction on the phenomena. Furthermore, no indication was found that the learning of emergent phenomena, with the aid of a dynamic interactive modeling tool, gave the students the necessary complex cognitive skill which could then be applied to similar (near transfer) and/or novel, but different, (far transfer) scenarios. Finally, besides treatment condition, gender and age were also shown to be predictors of score differences; overall, males did better than females, and younger students did better than older students.

Developing Mathematical Provisions for Assessment of Liquid Hydrocarbon Emissions in Emergency Situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemenkova, M. Yu; Zemenkov, Yu D.; Shantarin, V. D.

2016-10-01

The paper reviews the development of methodology for calculation of hydrocarbon emissions during seepage and evaporation to monitor the reliability and safety of hydrocarbon storage and transportation. The authors have analyzed existing methods, models and techniques for assessing the amount of evaporated oil. Models used for predicting the material balance of multicomponent two-phase systems have been discussed. The results of modeling the open-air hydrocarbon evaporation from an oil spill are provided and exemplified by an emergency pit. Dependences and systems of differential equations have been obtained to assess parameters of mass transfer from the open surface of a liquid multicomponent mixture.

Tutoring and Multi-Agent Systems: Modeling from Experiences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bennane, Abdellah

2010-01-01

Tutoring systems become complex and are offering varieties of pedagogical software as course modules, exercises, simulators, systems online or offline, for single user or multi-user. This complexity motivates new forms and approaches to the design and the modelling. Studies and research in this field introduce emergent concepts that allow the…

Development of a GIS-based spill management information system.

PubMed

Martin, Paul H; LeBoeuf, Eugene J; Daniel, Edsel B; Dobbins, James P; Abkowitz, Mark D

2004-08-30

Spill Management Information System (SMIS) is a geographic information system (GIS)-based decision support system designed to effectively manage the risks associated with accidental or intentional releases of a hazardous material into an inland waterway. SMIS provides critical planning and impact information to emergency responders in anticipation of, or following such an incident. SMIS couples GIS and database management systems (DBMS) with the 2-D surface water model CE-QUAL-W2 Version 3.1 and the air contaminant model Computer-Aided Management of Emergency Operations (CAMEO) while retaining full GIS risk analysis and interpretive capabilities. Live 'real-time' data links are established within the spill management software to utilize current meteorological information and flowrates within the waterway. Capabilities include rapid modification of modeling conditions to allow for immediate scenario analysis and evaluation of 'what-if' scenarios. The functionality of the model is illustrated through a case study of the Cheatham Reach of the Cumberland River near Nashville, TN.

Software Systems for Prediction and Immediate Assessment of Emergency Situations on Municipalities Territories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poluyan, L. V.; Syutkina, E. V.; Guryev, E. S.

2017-11-01

The comparative analysis of key features of the software systems TOXI+Risk and ALOHA is presented. The authors made a comparison of domestic (TOXI+Risk) and foreign (ALOHA) software systems allowing to give the quantitative assessment of impact areas (pressure, thermal, toxic) in case of hypothetical emergencies in potentially hazardous objects of the oil, gas, chemical, petrochemical and oil-processing industry. Both software systems use different mathematical models for assessment of the release rate of a chemically hazardous substance from a storage tank and its evaporation. The comparison of the accuracy of definition of impact areas made by both software systems to verify the examples shows good convergence of both products. The analysis results showed that the ALOHA software can be actively used for forecasting and immediate assessment of emergency situations, assessment of damage as a result of emergencies on the territories of municipalities.

Decision support system for emergency management of oil spill accidents in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liubartseva, Svitlana; Coppini, Giovanni; Pinardi, Nadia; De Dominicis, Michela; Lecci, Rita; Turrisi, Giuseppe; Cretì, Sergio; Martinelli, Sara; Agostini, Paola; Marra, Palmalisa; Palermo, Francesco

2016-08-01

This paper presents an innovative web-based decision support system to facilitate emergency management in the case of oil spill accidents, called WITOIL (Where Is The Oil). The system can be applied to create a forecast of oil spill events, evaluate uncertainty of the predictions, and calculate hazards based on historical meteo-oceanographic datasets. To compute the oil transport and transformation, WITOIL uses the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model forced by operational meteo-oceanographic services. Results of the modeling are visualized through Google Maps. A special application for Android is designed to provide mobile access for competent authorities, technical and scientific institutions, and citizens.

Development of pediatric emergency medicine at Addis Ababa University/Tikuranbessa Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tefera, Muluwork; Bacha, Tigist; Butteris, Sabrina; Teshome, Getachew; Ross, Joshua; Hagen, Scott; Svenson, Jim; Busse, Heidi; Tefera, Girma

2014-07-01

In the world emergencies occur everywhere, and each day they consume ressources regardless of whether there are systems capable of achieving good outcomes. Low-income countries suffer the most highest rates of every category of injury--from traffic and the highest rates of acute complications of communicable diseases including tuberculosis, malaria and HIV. To describe the development of pediatrics emergency medicine at Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital A twinning partnership model was used in developing a pediatric emergency medicine training program helps in development of pediatrics emergency system. Strengthening the capacity of Addis Ababa University (AAU), Tikur Anbessa Hospital (TASH) to provide pediatric emergency medical services through improved organization of the pediatrics emergency department and strengthening of continuing education opportunities for faculty and staff capacity building by this improving quality of care in pediatrics patients in the country. The Addis Ababa University, University of Wiscosin and People to People partners intend to continue working together to strengthening and developing effetive systems to deliver quality pediatrics emergency medicine care troughout all regions of Ethiopia.

Neurotech for Neuroscience: Unifying Concepts, Organizing Principles, and Emerging Tools

PubMed Central

Silver, Rae; Boahen, Kwabena; Grillner, Sten; Kopell, Nancy; Olsen, Kathie L.

2012-01-01

The ability to tackle analysis of the brain at multiple levels simultaneously is emerging from rapid methodological developments. The classical research strategies of “measure,” “model,” and “make” are being applied to the exploration of nervous system function. These include novel conceptual and theoretical approaches, creative use of mathematical modeling, and attempts to build brain-like devices and systems, as well as other developments including instrumentation and statistical modeling (not covered here). Increasingly, these efforts require teams of scientists from a variety of traditional scientific disciplines to work together. The potential of such efforts for understanding directed motor movement, emergence of cognitive function from neuronal activity, and development of neuromimetic computers are described by a team that includes individuals experienced in behavior and neuroscience, mathematics, and engineering. Funding agencies, including the National Science Foundation, explore the potential of these changing frontiers of research for developing research policies and long-term planning. PMID:17978017

Emerging Technologies to Create Inducible and Genetically Defined Porcine Cancer Models

PubMed Central

Schook, Lawrence B.; Rund, Laurie; Begnini, Karine R.; Remião, Mariana H.; Seixas, Fabiana K.; Collares, Tiago

2016-01-01

There is an emerging need for new animal models that address unmet translational cancer research requirements. Transgenic porcine models provide an exceptional opportunity due to their genetic, anatomic, and physiological similarities with humans. Due to recent advances in the sequencing of domestic animal genomes and the development of new organism cloning technologies, it is now very feasible to utilize pigs as a malleable species, with similar anatomic and physiological features with humans, in which to develop cancer models. In this review, we discuss genetic modification technologies successfully used to produce porcine biomedical models, in particular the Cre-loxP System as well as major advances and perspectives the CRISPR/Cas9 System. Recent advancements in porcine tumor modeling and genome editing will bring porcine models to the forefront of translational cancer research. PMID:26973698

Reverse engineering biomolecular systems using -omic data: challenges, progress and opportunities.

PubMed

Quo, Chang F; Kaddi, Chanchala; Phan, John H; Zollanvari, Amin; Xu, Mingqing; Wang, May D; Alterovitz, Gil

2012-07-01

Recent advances in high-throughput biotechnologies have led to the rapid growing research interest in reverse engineering of biomolecular systems (REBMS). 'Data-driven' approaches, i.e. data mining, can be used to extract patterns from large volumes of biochemical data at molecular-level resolution while 'design-driven' approaches, i.e. systems modeling, can be used to simulate emergent system properties. Consequently, both data- and design-driven approaches applied to -omic data may lead to novel insights in reverse engineering biological systems that could not be expected before using low-throughput platforms. However, there exist several challenges in this fast growing field of reverse engineering biomolecular systems: (i) to integrate heterogeneous biochemical data for data mining, (ii) to combine top-down and bottom-up approaches for systems modeling and (iii) to validate system models experimentally. In addition to reviewing progress made by the community and opportunities encountered in addressing these challenges, we explore the emerging field of synthetic biology, which is an exciting approach to validate and analyze theoretical system models directly through experimental synthesis, i.e. analysis-by-synthesis. The ultimate goal is to address the present and future challenges in reverse engineering biomolecular systems (REBMS) using integrated workflow of data mining, systems modeling and synthetic biology.

A microcomputer based traffic evacuation modeling system for emergency planning application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rathi, A.K.

1995-12-31

The US Army stockpiles unitary chemical weapons, both as bulk chemicals and as munitions, at eight major sites in the United States. The continued storage and disposal of the chemical stockpile has the potential for accidental releases of toxic gases that could escape the installation boundaries and pose a threat to the civilian population in the vicinity. Vehicular evacuation is one of the major and often preferred protective action options available for emergency management in a real or anticipated disaster. Computer simulation models of evacuation traffic flow are used to estimate the time required for the affected populations to evacuatemore » to safer areas, to evaluate effectiveness of vehicular evacuations as a protective action option, and to develop comprehensive evacuation plans when required. Following a review of the past efforts to simulate traffic flow during emergency evacuations, an overview of the key features in Version 2.0 of the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS) are presented in this paper. OREMS is a microcomputer-based model developed to simulate traffic flow during regional emergency evacuations. OREMS integrates a state-of-the-art dynamic traffic flow and simulation model with advanced data editing and output display programs operating under a MS-Windows environment.« less

Passenger train emergency systems : review of egress variables and egress simulation models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-05-20

Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) regulations are intended to ensure the safe, timely, and effective evacuation of intercity and commuter rail passengers when necessary during passenger train emergencies. Although it is recognized that during the...

Passenger train emergency systems : review of egress variables and egress simulation models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-01

Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) regulations are intended to ensure the safe, timely, and effective evacuation of intercity and commuter rail passengers when necessary during passenger train emergencies. Although it is recognized that during the...

Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

2016-01-01

The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an…

Introduction and Highlights of the Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Venneri, Samuel L.

1997-01-01

Four generations of CAD/CAM systems can be identified, corresponding to changes in both modeling functionality and software architecture. The systems evolved from 2D and wireframes to solid modeling, to parametric/variational modelers to the current simulation-embedded systems. Recent developments have enabled design engineers to perform many of the complex analysis tasks, typically performed by analysis experts. Some of the characteristics of the current and emerging CAD/CAM/CAE systems are described in subsequent presentations. The focus of the workshop is on the potential of CAD/CAM/CAE systems for use in simulating the entire mission and life-cycle of future aerospace systems, and the needed development to realize this potential. First, the major features of the emerging computing, communication and networking environment are outlined; second, the characteristics and design drivers of future aerospace systems are identified; third, the concept of intelligent synthesis environment being planned by NASA, the UVA ACT Center and JPL is presented; and fourth, the objectives and format of the workshop are outlined.

Occupational Safety and Health System for Workers Engaged in Emergency Response Operations in the USA.

PubMed

Toyoda, Hiroyuki; Kubo, Tatsuhiko; Mori, Koji

2016-12-03

To study the occupational safety and health systems used for emergency response workers in the USA, we performed interviews with related federal agencies and conducted research on related studies. We visited the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) in the USA and performed interviews with their managers on the agencies' roles in the national emergency response system. We also obtained information prepared for our visit from the USA's Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). In addition, we conducted research on related studies and information on the website of the agencies. We found that the USA had an established emergency response system based on their National Incident Management System (NIMS). This enabled several organizations to respond to emergencies cooperatively using a National Response Framework (NRF) that clarifies the roles and cooperative functions of each federal agency. The core system in NIMS was the Incident Command System (ICS), within which a Safety Officer was positioned as one of the command staff supporting the commander. All ICS staff were required to complete a training program specific to their position; in addition, the Safety Officer was required to have experience. The All-Hazards model was commonly used in the emergency response system. We found that FEMA coordinated support functions, and OSHA and NIOSH, which had specific functions to protect workers, worked cooperatively under NRF. These agencies employed certified industrial hygienists that play a professional role in safety and health. NIOSH recently executed support activities during disasters and other emergencies. The USA's emergency response system is characterized by functions that protect the lives and health of emergency response workers. Trained and experienced human resources support system effectiveness. The findings provided valuable information that could be used to improve the occupational safety and health function in the Japanese system.

Prototyping and validating requirements of radiation and nuclear emergency plan simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamid, AHA., E-mail: amyhamijah@nm.gov.my; Faculty of Computing, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; Rozan, MZA.

2015-04-29

Organizational incapability in developing unrealistic, impractical, inadequate and ambiguous mechanisms of radiological and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan (EPR) causing emergency plan disorder and severe disasters. These situations resulting from 65.6% of poor definition and unidentified roles and duties of the disaster coordinator. Those unexpected conditions brought huge aftermath to the first responders, operators, workers, patients and community at large. Hence, in this report, we discuss prototyping and validating of Malaysia radiation and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan simulation model (EPRM). A prototyping technique was required to formalize the simulation model requirements. Prototyping as systems requirements validation wasmore » carried on to endorse the correctness of the model itself against the stakeholder’s intensions in resolving those organizational incapability. We have made assumptions for the proposed emergency preparedness and response model (EPRM) through the simulation software. Those assumptions provided a twofold of expected mechanisms, planning and handling of the respective emergency plan as well as in bringing off the hazard involved. This model called RANEPF (Radiation and Nuclear Emergency Planning Framework) simulator demonstrated the training emergency response perquisites rather than the intervention principles alone. The demonstrations involved the determination of the casualties’ absorbed dose range screening and the coordination of the capacity planning of the expected trauma triage. Through user-centred design and sociotechnical approach, RANEPF simulator was strategized and simplified, though certainly it is equally complex.« less

Prototyping and validating requirements of radiation and nuclear emergency plan simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, AHA.; Rozan, MZA.; Ibrahim, R.; Deris, S.; Selamat, A.

2015-04-01

Organizational incapability in developing unrealistic, impractical, inadequate and ambiguous mechanisms of radiological and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan (EPR) causing emergency plan disorder and severe disasters. These situations resulting from 65.6% of poor definition and unidentified roles and duties of the disaster coordinator. Those unexpected conditions brought huge aftermath to the first responders, operators, workers, patients and community at large. Hence, in this report, we discuss prototyping and validating of Malaysia radiation and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan simulation model (EPRM). A prototyping technique was required to formalize the simulation model requirements. Prototyping as systems requirements validation was carried on to endorse the correctness of the model itself against the stakeholder's intensions in resolving those organizational incapability. We have made assumptions for the proposed emergency preparedness and response model (EPRM) through the simulation software. Those assumptions provided a twofold of expected mechanisms, planning and handling of the respective emergency plan as well as in bringing off the hazard involved. This model called RANEPF (Radiation and Nuclear Emergency Planning Framework) simulator demonstrated the training emergency response perquisites rather than the intervention principles alone. The demonstrations involved the determination of the casualties' absorbed dose range screening and the coordination of the capacity planning of the expected trauma triage. Through user-centred design and sociotechnical approach, RANEPF simulator was strategized and simplified, though certainly it is equally complex.

When everything is not everywhere but species evolve: an alternative method to model adaptive properties of marine ecosystems

PubMed Central

Sauterey, Boris; Ward, Ben A.; Follows, Michael J.; Bowler, Chris; Claessen, David

2015-01-01

The functional and taxonomic biogeography of marine microbial systems reflects the current state of an evolving system. Current models of marine microbial systems and biogeochemical cycles do not reflect this fundamental organizing principle. Here, we investigate the evolutionary adaptive potential of marine microbial systems under environmental change and introduce explicit Darwinian adaptation into an ocean modelling framework, simulating evolving phytoplankton communities in space and time. To this end, we adopt tools from adaptive dynamics theory, evaluating the fitness of invading mutants over annual timescales, replacing the resident if a fitter mutant arises. Using the evolutionary framework, we examine how community assembly, specifically the emergence of phytoplankton cell size diversity, reflects the combined effects of bottom-up and top-down controls. When compared with a species-selection approach, based on the paradigm that “Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects”, we show that (i) the selected optimal trait values are similar; (ii) the patterns emerging from the adaptive model are more robust, but (iii) the two methods lead to different predictions in terms of emergent diversity. We demonstrate that explicitly evolutionary approaches to modelling marine microbial populations and functionality are feasible and practical in time-varying, space-resolving settings and provide a new tool for exploring evolutionary interactions on a range of timescales in the ocean. PMID:25852217

When everything is not everywhere but species evolve: an alternative method to model adaptive properties of marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Sauterey, Boris; Ward, Ben A; Follows, Michael J; Bowler, Chris; Claessen, David

2015-01-01

The functional and taxonomic biogeography of marine microbial systems reflects the current state of an evolving system. Current models of marine microbial systems and biogeochemical cycles do not reflect this fundamental organizing principle. Here, we investigate the evolutionary adaptive potential of marine microbial systems under environmental change and introduce explicit Darwinian adaptation into an ocean modelling framework, simulating evolving phytoplankton communities in space and time. To this end, we adopt tools from adaptive dynamics theory, evaluating the fitness of invading mutants over annual timescales, replacing the resident if a fitter mutant arises. Using the evolutionary framework, we examine how community assembly, specifically the emergence of phytoplankton cell size diversity, reflects the combined effects of bottom-up and top-down controls. When compared with a species-selection approach, based on the paradigm that "Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects", we show that (i) the selected optimal trait values are similar; (ii) the patterns emerging from the adaptive model are more robust, but (iii) the two methods lead to different predictions in terms of emergent diversity. We demonstrate that explicitly evolutionary approaches to modelling marine microbial populations and functionality are feasible and practical in time-varying, space-resolving settings and provide a new tool for exploring evolutionary interactions on a range of timescales in the ocean.

A synthetic method for atmospheric diffusion simulation and environmental impact assessment of accidental pollution in the chemical industry in a WEBGIS context.

PubMed

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-09-05

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents.

A Synthetic Method for Atmospheric Diffusion Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment of Accidental Pollution in the Chemical Industry in a WEBGIS Context

PubMed Central

Ni, Haochen; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Cheng, Liang

2014-01-01

The chemical industry poses a potential security risk to factory personnel and neighboring residents. In order to mitigate prospective damage, a synthetic method must be developed for an emergency response. With the development of environmental numeric simulation models, model integration methods, and modern information technology, many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been established. However, existing systems still have limitations, in terms of synthetic simulation and network interoperation. In order to resolve these limitations, the matured simulation model for chemical accidents was integrated into the WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The complete workflow of the emergency response, including raw data (meteorology information, and accident information) management, numeric simulation of different kinds of accidents, environmental impact assessments, and representation of the simulation results were achieved. This allowed comprehensive and real-time simulation of acute accidents in the chemical industry. The main contribution of this paper is that an organizational mechanism of the model set, based on the accident type and pollutant substance; a scheduling mechanism for the parallel processing of multi-accident-type, multi-accident-substance, and multi-simulation-model; and finally a presentation method for scalar and vector data on the web browser on the integration of a WEB Geographic Information System (WEBGIS) platform. The outcomes demonstrated that this method could provide effective support for deciding emergency responses of acute chemical accidents. PMID:25198686

Access Control for Cooperation Systems Based on Group Situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Minsoo; Joshi, James B. D.; Kim, Minkoo

Cooperation systems characterize many emerging environments such as ubiquitous and pervasive systems. Agent based cooperation systems have been proposed in the literature to address challenges of such emerging application environments. A key aspect of such agent based cooperation system is the group situation that changes dynamically and governs the requirements of the cooperation. While individual agent context is important, the overall cooperation behavior is more driven by the group context because of relationships and interactions between agents. Dynamic access control based on group situation is a crucial challenge in such cooperation systems. In this paper we propose a dynamic role based access control model for cooperation systems based on group situation. The model emphasizes capability based agent to role mapping and group situation based permission assignment to allow capturing dynamic access policies that evolve continuously.

The potential for congressional use of emergent telecommunications: An exploratory assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, F. B.

1974-01-01

A study of the use of newly emerging communications technology for improving the understanding between members of Congress and their constituents was conducted. The study employed a number of specific methodologies such as interdisciplinary systems model building, technology analysis, a sample survey, and semi-structured interviews using sketches of the emergent channels. The following configurations were identified as representative of emergent channel characteristics: (1) the teleconference, (2) the videoconference, (3) the videophone, (4) cable television, (5) cable television polling, and (6) information retrieval. Analysis of the interview data resulted in an overview of the current congressional-constituent communication system and an assessment of the potential for emergent telecommunications, as perceived by congressmen and senior staff from 40 offices in the stratified judgement sample.

A methodology for evacuation design for urban areas: theoretical aspects and experimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, F.; Vitetta, A.

2009-04-01

This paper proposes an unifying approach for the simulation and design of a transportation system under conditions of incoming safety and/or security. Safety and security are concerned with threats generated by very different factors and which, in turn, generate emergency conditions, such as the 9/11, Madrid and London attacks, the Asian tsunami, and the Katrina hurricane; just considering the last five years. In transportation systems, when exogenous events happen and there is a sufficient interval time between the instant when the event happens and the instant when the event has effect on the population, it is possible to reduce the negative effects with the population evacuation. For this event in every case it is possible to prepare with short and long term the evacuation. For other event it is possible also to plan the real time evacuation inside the general risk methodology. The development of models for emergency conditions in transportation systems has not received much attention in the literature. The main findings in this area are limited to only a few public research centres and private companies. In general, there is no systematic analysis of the risk theory applied in the transportation system. Very often, in practice, the vulnerability and exposure in the transportation system are considered as similar variables, or in other worse cases the exposure variables are treated as vulnerability variables. Models and algorithms specified and calibrated in ordinary conditions cannot be directly applied in emergency conditions under the usual hypothesis considered. This paper is developed with the following main objectives: (a) to formalize the risk problem with clear diversification (for the consequences) in the definition of the vulnerability and exposure in a transportation system; thus the book offers improvements over consolidated quantitative risk analysis models, especially transportation risk analysis models (risk assessment); (b) to formalize a system of models for evacuation simulation; (c) to calibrate and validate system of model for evacuation simulation from a real experimentation. In relation to the proposed objectives in this paper: (a) a general framework about risk analysis is reported in the first part, with specific methods and models to analyze urban transportation system performances in emergency conditions when exogenous phenomena occur and for the specification of the risk function; (b) a formulation of the general evacuation problem in the standard simulation context of "what if" approach is specified in the second part with reference to the model considered for the simulation of transportation system in ordinary condition; (c) a set of models specified in the second part are calibrated and validated from a real experimentation in the third part. The experimentation was developed in the central business district of an Italian village and about 1000 inhabitants were evacuated, in order to construct a complete data-base. Our experiment required that socioeconomic information (population, number employed, public buildings, schools, etc.) and ‎transport supply characteristics (infrastructures, etc.) be measured before and during experimentation. The real data of evacuation were recorded with 30 video cameras for laboratory analysis. The results are divided into six strictly connected tasks: Demand models; Supply and supply-demand interaction models for users; Simulation of refuge areas for users; Design of path choice models for emergency vehicles; Pedestrian outflow models in a building; Planning process and guidelines.

Agent-based modeling of the spread of influenza-like illness in an emergency department: a simulation study.

PubMed

Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C P; Witt, Julia; Mukhi, Shamir N; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D

2011-11-01

The objective of this paper was to develop an agent-based modeling framework in order to simulate the spread of influenza virus infection on a layout based on a representative hospital emergency department in Winnipeg, Canada. In doing so, the study complements mathematical modeling techniques for disease spread, as well as modeling applications focused on the spread of antibiotic-resistant nosocomial infections in hospitals. Twenty different emergency department scenarios were simulated, with further simulation of four infection control strategies. The agent-based modeling approach represents systems modeling, in which the emergency department was modeled as a collection of agents (patients and healthcare workers) and their individual characteristics, behaviors, and interactions. The framework was coded in C++ using Qt4 libraries running under the Linux operating system. A simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to analyze the data, in which the percentage of patients that became infected in one day within the simulation was the dependent variable. The results suggest that within the given instance context, patient-oriented infection control policies (alternate treatment streams, masking symptomatic patients) tend to have a larger effect than policies that target healthcare workers. The agent-based modeling framework is a flexible tool that can be made to reflect any given environment; it is also a decision support tool for practitioners and policymakers to assess the relative impact of infection control strategies. The framework illuminates scenarios worthy of further investigation, as well as counterintuitive findings.

[Assessment on the ability of emergency response at the county center for disease control and prevention level in flooding-prone areas].

PubMed

Chen, Wei; Zeng, Guang

2006-02-01

To establish a comprehensive assessment model on the ability of emergency response within the public health system in flooding-prone areas. A hierarchy process theory was used to establish the initial assessing framework. Delphi method was used to screen and choose the ultimate indicators and their weights before an assessment model was set up under the 'synthetic scored method' to assess the ability of the emergency response among twenty county public health units. We then used the 'analysis of variation (ANOVA)' methodology to test the feasibility of distinguishing the ability of emergency response among different county health units and correlation analysis was used to assess the independence of indicators in the assessing model. A comprehensive model was then established including twenty first-class indicators and fifty-six second-class indicators and the degree of ability to emergency response with flooding of public health units was evaluated. There were five public health units having higher, ten having moderate but five with lower levels on emergency response. The assessment model was proved to be a good method in differentiating the ability of public health units, using independent indicators. The assessment model which we established seemed to be practical and reliable.

Background-independent condensed matter models for quantum gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamma, Alioscia; Markopoulou, Fotini

2011-09-01

A number of recent proposals on a quantum theory of gravity are based on the idea that spacetime geometry and gravity are derivative concepts and only apply at an approximate level. There are two fundamental challenges to any such approach. At the conceptual level, there is a clash between the 'timelessness' of general relativity and emergence. Secondly, the lack of a fundamental spacetime renders difficult the straightforward application of well-known methods of statistical physics to the problem. We recently initiated a study of such problems using spin systems based on the evolution of quantum networks with no a priori geometric notions as models for emergent geometry and gravity. In this paper, we review two such models. The first model is a model of emergent (flat) space and matter, and we show how to use methods from quantum information theory to derive features such as the speed of light from a non-geometric quantum system. The second model exhibits interacting matter and geometry, with the geometry defined by the behavior of matter. This model has primitive notions of gravitational attraction that we illustrate with a toy black hole, and exhibits entanglement between matter and geometry and thermalization of the quantum geometry.

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

PubMed Central

Katz, Rachel A.; Richgels, Katherine L.D.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Grant, Evan H.C.

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge. PMID:27983501

Demeter, persephone, and the search for emergence in agent-based models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

North, M. J.; Howe, T. R.; Collier, N. T.

2006-01-01

In Greek mythology, the earth goddess Demeter was unable to find her daughter Persephone after Persephone was abducted by Hades, the god of the underworld. Demeter is said to have embarked on a long and frustrating, but ultimately successful, search to find her daughter. Unfortunately, long and frustrating searches are not confined to Greek mythology. In modern times, agent-based modelers often face similar troubles when searching for agents that are to be to be connected to one another and when seeking appropriate target agents while defining agent behaviors. The result is a 'search for emergence' in that many emergent ormore » potentially emergent behaviors in agent-based models of complex adaptive systems either implicitly or explicitly require search functions. This paper considers a new nested querying approach to simplifying such agent-based modeling and multi-agent simulation search problems.« less

Classification of hospital admissions into emergency and elective care: a machine learning approach.

PubMed

Krämer, Jonas; Schreyögg, Jonas; Busse, Reinhard

2017-11-25

Rising admissions from emergency departments (EDs) to hospitals are a primary concern for many healthcare systems. The issue of how to differentiate urgent admissions from non-urgent or even elective admissions is crucial. We aim to develop a model for classifying inpatient admissions based on a patient's primary diagnosis as either emergency care or elective care and predicting urgency as a numerical value. We use supervised machine learning techniques and train the model with physician-expert judgments. Our model is accurate (96%) and has a high area under the ROC curve (>.99). We provide the first comprehensive classification and urgency categorization for inpatient emergency and elective care. This model assigns urgency values to every relevant diagnosis in the ICD catalog, and these values are easily applicable to existing hospital data. Our findings may provide a basis for policy makers to create incentives for hospitals to reduce the number of inappropriate ED admissions.

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management.

PubMed

Russell, Robin E; Katz, Rachel A; Richgels, Katherine L D; Walsh, Daniel P; Grant, Evan H C

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

A framework for modeling emerging diseases to inform management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Katz, Rachel A.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

Le Bon Samaritain: A Community-Based Care Model Supported by Technology.

PubMed

Gay, Valerie; Leijdekkers, Peter; Gill, Asif; Felix Navarro, Karla

2015-01-01

The effective care and well-being of a community is a challenging task especially in an emergency situation. Traditional technology-based silos between health and emergency services are challenged by the changing needs of the community that could benefit from integrated health and safety services. Low-cost smart-home automation solutions, wearable devices and Cloud technology make it feasible for communities to interact with each other, and with health and emergency services in a timely manner. This paper proposes a new community-based care model, supported by technology, that aims at reducing healthcare and emergency services costs while allowing community to become resilient in response to health and emergency situations. We looked at models of care in different industries and identified the type of technology that can support the suggested new model of care. Two prototypes were developed to validate the adequacy of the technology. The result is a new community-based model of care called 'Le Bon Samaritain'. It relies on a network of people called 'Bons Samaritains' willing to help and deal with the basic care and safety aspects of their community. Their role is to make sure that people in their community receive and understand the messages from emergency and health services. The new care model is integrated with existing emergency warning, community and health services. Le Bon Samaritain model is scalable, community-based and can help people feel safer, less isolated and more integrated in their community. It could be the key to reduce healthcare cost, increase resilience and drive the change for a more integrated emergency and care system.

Information infrastructure for emergency medical services.

PubMed

Orthner, Helmuth; Mishra, Ninad; Terndrup, Thomas; Acker, Joseph; Grimes, Gary; Gemmill, Jill; Battles, Marcie

2005-01-01

The pre-hospital emergency medical and public safety information environment is nearing a threshold of significant change. The change is driven in part by several emerging technologies such as secure, high-speed wireless communication in the local and wide area networks (wLAN, 3G), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Global Positioning Systems (GPS), and powerful handheld computing and communication services, that are of sufficient utility to be more widely adopted. We propose a conceptual model to enable improved clinical decision making in the pre-hospital environment using these change agents.

A General Water Resources Regulation Software System in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LEI, X.

2017-12-01

To avoid iterative development of core modules in water resource normal regulation and emergency regulation and improve the capability of maintenance and optimization upgrading of regulation models and business logics, a general water resources regulation software framework was developed based on the collection and analysis of common demands for water resources regulation and emergency management. It can provide a customizable, secondary developed and extensible software framework for the three-level platform "MWR-Basin-Province". Meanwhile, this general software system can realize business collaboration and information sharing of water resources regulation schemes among the three-level platforms, so as to improve the decision-making ability of national water resources regulation. There are four main modules involved in the general software system: 1) A complete set of general water resources regulation modules allows secondary developer to custom-develop water resources regulation decision-making systems; 2) A complete set of model base and model computing software released in the form of Cloud services; 3) A complete set of tools to build the concept map and model system of basin water resources regulation, as well as a model management system to calibrate and configure model parameters; 4) A database which satisfies business functions and functional requirements of general water resources regulation software can finally provide technical support for building basin or regional water resources regulation models.

Web quality control for lectures: Supercourse and Amazon.com.

PubMed

Linkov, Faina; LaPorte, Ronald; Lovalekar, Mita; Dodani, Sunita

2005-12-01

Peer review has been at the corner stone of quality control of the biomedical journals in the past 300 years. With the emergency of the Internet, new models of quality control and peer review are emerging. However, such models are poorly investigated. We would argue that the popular system of quality control used in Amazon.com offers a way to ensure continuous quality improvement in the area of research communications on the Internet. Such system is providing an interesting alternative to the traditional peer review approaches used in the biomedical journals and challenges the traditional paradigms of scientific publishing. This idea is being explored in the context of Supercourse, a library of 2,350 prevention lectures, shared for free by faculty members from over 150 countries. Supercourse is successfully utilizing quality control approaches that are similar to Amazon.com model. Clearly, the existing approaches and emerging alternatives for quality control in scientific communications needs to be assessed scientifically. Rapid explosion of internet technologies could be leveraged to produce better, more cost effective systems for quality control in the biomedical publications and across all sciences.

Leadership and the emergency department.

PubMed

LaSalle, Gar

2004-02-01

Emergency medicine, as the nation's health care system's safety net, is facing ever increasing demands on its resources and infrastructure. Classic and modern theories of leadership, which include broader based models that in corporate team responsibilities, should be studied by anyone wearing the mantle of leadership in emergency medicine, and the Realpolitik of the modern hospital must be accommodated if leadership efforts are to succeed.

A revised limbic system model for memory, emotion and behaviour.

PubMed

Catani, Marco; Dell'acqua, Flavio; Thiebaut de Schotten, Michel

2013-09-01

Emotion, memories and behaviour emerge from the coordinated activities of regions connected by the limbic system. Here, we propose an update of the limbic model based on the seminal work of Papez, Yakovlev and MacLean. In the revised model we identify three distinct but partially overlapping networks: (i) the Hippocampal-diencephalic and parahippocampal-retrosplenial network dedicated to memory and spatial orientation; (ii) The temporo-amygdala-orbitofrontal network for the integration of visceral sensation and emotion with semantic memory and behaviour; (iii) the default-mode network involved in autobiographical memories and introspective self-directed thinking. The three networks share cortical nodes that are emerging as principal hubs in connectomic analysis. This revised network model of the limbic system reconciles recent functional imaging findings with anatomical accounts of clinical disorders commonly associated with limbic pathology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyner, James J., Sr.

2016-01-01

This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

Emergence of a Common Modeling Architecture for Earth System Science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deluca, C.

2010-12-01

Common modeling architecture can be viewed as a natural outcome of common modeling infrastructure. The development of model utility and coupling packages (ESMF, MCT, OpenMI, etc.) over the last decade represents the realization of a community vision for common model infrastructure. The adoption of these packages has led to increased technical communication among modeling centers and newly coupled modeling systems. However, adoption has also exposed aspects of interoperability that must be addressed before easy exchange of model components among different groups can be achieved. These aspects include common physical architecture (how a model is divided into components) and model metadata and usage conventions. The National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC), an operational weather prediction consortium, is collaborating with weather and climate researchers to define a common model architecture that encompasses these advanced aspects of interoperability and looks to future needs. The nature and structure of the emergent common modeling architecture will be discussed along with its implications for future model development.

Crowd Simulation Incorporating Agent Psychological Models, Roles and Communication

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

system (PMFserv) that implements human behavior models from a range of ability, stress, emotion , decision theoretic and motivation sources. An...autonomous agents, human behavior models, culture and emotions 1. Introduction There are many applications of computer animation and simulation where...We describe a new architecture to integrate a psychological model into a crowd simulation system in order to obtain believable emergent behaviors

The emergence of asymmetric normal fault systems under symmetric boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöpfer, Martin P. J.; Childs, Conrad; Manzocchi, Tom; Walsh, John J.; Nicol, Andrew; Grasemann, Bernhard

2017-11-01

Many normal fault systems and, on a smaller scale, fracture boudinage often exhibit asymmetry with one fault dip direction dominating. It is a common belief that the formation of domino and shear band boudinage with a monoclinic symmetry requires a component of layer parallel shearing. Moreover, domains of parallel faults are frequently used to infer the presence of a décollement. Using Distinct Element Method (DEM) modelling we show, that asymmetric fault systems can emerge under symmetric boundary conditions. A statistical analysis of DEM models suggests that the fault dip directions and system polarities can be explained using a random process if the strength contrast between the brittle layer and the surrounding material is high. The models indicate that domino and shear band boudinage are unreliable shear-sense indicators. Moreover, the presence of a décollement should not be inferred on the basis of a domain of parallel faults alone.

Modeling operators' emergency response time for chemical processing operations.

PubMed

Murray, Susan L; Harputlu, Emrah; Mentzer, Ray A; Mannan, M Sam

2014-01-01

Operators have a crucial role during emergencies at a variety of facilities such as chemical processing plants. When an abnormality occurs in the production process, the operator often has limited time to either take corrective actions or evacuate before the situation becomes deadly. It is crucial that system designers and safety professionals can estimate the time required for a response before procedures and facilities are designed and operations are initiated. There are existing industrial engineering techniques to establish time standards for tasks performed at a normal working pace. However, it is reasonable to expect the time required to take action in emergency situations will be different than working at a normal production pace. It is possible that in an emergency, operators will act faster compared to a normal pace. It would be useful for system designers to be able to establish a time range for operators' response times for emergency situations. This article develops a modeling approach to estimate the time standard range for operators taking corrective actions or following evacuation procedures in emergency situations. This will aid engineers and managers in establishing time requirements for operators in emergency situations. The methodology used for this study combines a well-established industrial engineering technique for determining time requirements (predetermined time standard system) and adjustment coefficients for emergency situations developed by the authors. Numerous videos of workers performing well-established tasks at a maximum pace were studied. As an example, one of the tasks analyzed was pit crew workers changing tires as quickly as they could during a race. The operations in these videos were decomposed into basic, fundamental motions (such as walking, reaching for a tool, and bending over) by studying the videos frame by frame. A comparison analysis was then performed between the emergency pace and the normal working pace operations to determine performance coefficients. These coefficients represent the decrease in time required for various basic motions in emergency situations and were used to model an emergency response. This approach will make hazardous operations requiring operator response, alarm management, and evacuation processes easier to design and predict. An application of this methodology is included in the article. The time required for an emergency response was roughly a one-third faster than for a normal response time.

EMERGENCY COLLECTION SYSTEM FOR SPILLED HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

EPA Science Inventory

A prepackaged pumping and storage system for the collection and temporary containment of hazardous land spills was designed and two models developed. Each model includes a pump, hoses, furled self-deploying 26,500 l (7000 gal) capacity plastic bag array all mounted on a pallet fo...

Emergency management in health: key issues and challenges in the UK.

PubMed

Lee, Andrew C K; Phillips, Wendy; Challen, Kirsty; Goodacre, Steve

2012-10-19

Emergency planning in the UK has grown considerably in recent years, galvanised by the threat of terrorism. However, deficiencies in NHS emergency planning were identified and the evidence-base that underpins it is questionable. Inconsistencies in terminologies and concepts also exist. Different models of emergency management exist internationally but the optimal system is unknown. This study examines the evidence-base and evidence requirements for emergency planning in the UK health context. The study involved semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and opinion leaders. Purposive sampling was used to obtain a breadth of views from various agencies involved in emergency planning and response. Interviews were then analysed using a grounded approach using standard framework analysis techniques. We conducted 17 key informant interviews. Interviewees identified greater gaps in operational than technical aspects of emergency planning. Social and behavioural knowledge gaps were highlighted with regards to how individuals and organisations deal with risk and behave in emergencies. Evidence-based approaches to public engagement and for developing community resilience to disasters are lacking. Other gaps included how knowledge was developed and used. Conflicting views with regards to the optimal configuration and operation of the emergency management system were voiced. Four thematic categories for future research emerged:(i) Knowledge-base for emergency management: Further exploration is needed of how knowledge is acquired, valued, disseminated, adopted and retained.(ii) Social and behavioural issues: Greater understanding of how individuals approach risk and behave in emergencies is required.(iii) Organisational issues in emergencies: Several conflicting organisational issues were identified; value of planning versus plans, flexible versus standardized procedures, top-down versus bottom-up engagement, generic versus specific planning, and reactive versus proactive approaches to emergencies.(iv) Emergency management system: More study is required of system-wide issues relating to system configuration and operation, public engagement, and how emergency planning is assessed.

Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, K. B.; Lin, J.; Frölicher, T. L.

2015-06-01

Marine ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes. Marine ecosystem drivers that contribute to stressing ecosystems - including warming, acidification, deoxygenation and perturbations to biological productivity - can co-occur in space and time, but detecting their trends is complicated by the presence of noise associated with natural variability in the climate system. Here we use large initial-condition ensemble simulations with an Earth system model under a historical/RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway 8.5) scenario over 1950-2100 to consider emergence characteristics for the four individual and combined drivers. Using a 1-standard-deviation (67% confidence) threshold of signal to noise to define emergence with a 30-year trend window, we show that ocean acidification emerges much earlier than other drivers, namely during the 20th century over most of the global ocean. For biological productivity, the anthropogenic signal does not emerge from the noise over most of the global ocean before the end of the 21st century. The early emergence pattern for sea surface temperature in low latitudes is reversed from that of subsurface oxygen inventories, where emergence occurs earlier in the Southern Ocean. For the combined multiple-driver field, 41% of the global ocean exhibits emergence for the 2005-2014 period, and 63% for the 2075-2084 period. The combined multiple-driver field reveals emergence patterns by the end of this century that are relatively high over much of the Southern Ocean, North Pacific, and Atlantic, but relatively low over the tropics and the South Pacific. For the case of two drivers, the tropics including habitats of coral reefs emerges earliest, with this driven by the joint effects of acidification and warming. It is precisely in the regions with pronounced emergence characteristics where marine ecosystems may be expected to be pushed outside of their comfort zone determined by the degree of natural background variability to which they are adapted. The results underscore the importance of sustained multi-decadal observing systems for monitoring multiple ecosystems drivers.

Itinerancy of money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasutomi, Ayumu

2003-09-01

Previously, I studied [Physica D 82, 180-194 (1995)] the emergence and collapse of money in a computer simulation model. In this paper I will revisit the same topic, building a model in the same line. I discuss this problem from the viewpoint of chaotic itinerancy. Money is the most popular system for evading the difficulty of exchange under division of labor. It emerges autonomously from exchanges among selfish agents which behave as automata. And such emergent money collapses autonomously. I describe money as a structure in economic space, explaining its autonomous emergence and collapse as two phases of the same phenomenon. The key element in this phenomenon is the switch of the meaning of strategies. This is caused by the drastic change of environment caused by the emergence of a structure. This dynamics shares some aspects with chaotic itinerancy.

A statewide model program to improve emergency department readiness for pediatric care.

PubMed

Cichon, Mark E; Fuchs, Susan; Lyons, Evelyn; Leonard, Daniel

2009-08-01

Pediatric emergency patients have unique needs, requiring specialized personnel, training, equipment, supplies, and medications. Deficiencies in these areas have resulted in historically poorer outcomes for pediatric patients versus adults. Since 1985, federally funded Emergency Medical Services for Children (EMSC) programs in each state have been working to improve the quality of pediatric emergency care. The Health Resources and Services Administration now requires that all EMSC grantees report on specific performance measures. This includes implementation of a standardized system recognizing hospitals that are able to stabilize or manage pediatric medical emergencies and trauma cases. We describe the steps involved in implementing Illinois' 3-level facility recognition process to illustrate a model that other states might use to provide appropriate pediatric care and comply with new Health Resources and Services Administration performance measures.

Design and application of the emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting in the Wenchuan earthquake zone.

PubMed

Ma, Jiaqi; Zhou, Maigeng; Li, Yanfei; Guo, Yan; Su, Xuemei; Qi, Xiaopeng; Ge, Hui

2009-05-01

To describe the design and application of an emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting. Software engineering and business modeling were used to design and develop the emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting. Seven days after the initiation of the reporting system, the reporting rate in the earthquake zone reached the level of the same period in 2007, using the mobile phone-based information system. Surveillance of the weekly report on morbidity in the earthquake zone after the initiation of the mobile phone reporting system showed the same trend as the previous three years. The emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting was an effective solution to transmit urgently needed reports and manage communicable disease surveillance information. This assured the consistency of disease surveillance and facilitated sensitive, accurate, and timely disease surveillance. It is an important backup for the internet-based direct reporting system for communicable disease. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University.

User Acceptance of Picture Archiving and Communication System in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Hassan; Khatami, Seyed-Masoud; Javadzadeh, Hammidreza; Mahmoudi, Sadrollah; Khajehpour, Hojjatollah; Heidari, Soleiman; Khodaparast, Morteza; Ebrahimi, Ali; Rasouli, Hamidreza; Ghane, Mohammadreza; Faraji, Mehrdad; Hassanpour, Kasra

2016-04-01

Picture archiving and communication system (PACS) has allowed the medical images to be transmitted, stored, retrieved, and displayed in different locations of a hospital or health system. Using PACS in the emergency department will eventually result in improved efficiency and patient care. In spite of the abundant benefits of employing PACS, there are some challenges in implementing this technology like users' resistance to accept the technology, which has a critical role in PACS success. In this study, we will assess and compare user acceptance of PACS in the emergency departments of three different hospitals and investigate the effect of socio-demographic factors on this acceptance. A variant of technology acceptance model (TAM) has been used in order to measure the acceptance level of PACS in the emergency department of three educational hospitals in Iran. A previously used questionnaire was validated and utilized to collect the study data. A stepwise multiple regression model was used to predict factors influencing acceptance score as the dependent variable. Mean age of participants was 32.9 years (standard deviation [SD] = 6.08). Participants with the specialty degree got a higher acceptance score than the three other groups (Mean ± SD = 4.17 ± 0.20). Age, gender, degree of PACS usage and participant's occupation (profession) did not influence the acceptance score. In our multiple regression model, all three variables of perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEU) and the effect of PACS (change) had a significant effect in the prediction of acceptance. The most influencing factor was change with the beta of 0.22 (P value < 0.001). PACS is highly accepted in all three emergency departments especially among specialists. PU, PEU and change are factors influencing PACS acceptance. Our study can be used as an evidence of PACS acceptance in emergency wards.

Lessons from tele-emergency: improving care quality and health outcomes by expanding support for rural care systems.

PubMed

Mueller, Keith J; Potter, Andrew J; MacKinney, A Clinton; Ward, Marcia M

2014-02-01

Tele-emergency services provide immediate and synchronous audio/video connections, most commonly between rural low-volume hospitals and an urban "hub" emergency department. We performed a systematic literature review to identify tele-emergency models and outcomes. We then studied a large tele-emergency service in the upper Midwest. We sent a user survey to all seventy-one hospitals that used the service and received 292 replies. We also conducted telephone interviews and site visits with ninety clinicians and administrators at twenty-nine of these hospitals. Participants reported that tele-emergency improves clinical quality, expands the care team, increases resources during critical events, shortens time to care, improves care coordination, promotes patient-centered care, improves the recruitment of family physicians, and stabilizes the rural hospital patient base. However, inconsistent reimbursement policy, cross-state licensing barriers, and other regulations hinder tele-emergency implementation. New value-based payment systems have the potential to reduce these barriers and accelerate tele-emergency expansion.

A multi-level model of emerging technology: An empirical study of the evolution of biotechnology from 1976 to 2003

PubMed Central

van Witteloostuijn, Arjen

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop an ecological, multi-level model that can be used to study the evolution of emerging technology. More specifically, by defining technology as a system composed of a set of interacting components, we can build upon the argument of multi-level density dependence from organizational ecology to develop a distribution-independent model of technological evolution. This allows us to distinguish between different stages of component development, which provides more insight into the emergence of stable component configurations, or dominant designs. We validate our hypotheses in the biotechnology industry by using patent data from the USPTO from 1976 to 2003. PMID:29795575

Emergency medical care in developing countries: is it worthwhile?

PubMed Central

Razzak, Junaid A.; Kellermann, Arthur L.

2002-01-01

Prevention is a core value of any health system. Nonetheless, many health problems will continue to occur despite preventive services. A significant burden of diseases in developing countries is caused by time-sensitive illnesses and injuries, such as severe infections, hypoxia caused by respiratory infections, dehydration caused by diarrhoea, intentional and unintentional injuries, postpartum bleeding, and acute myocardial infarction. The provision of timely treatment during life-threatening emergencies is not a priority for many health systems in developing countries. This paper reviews evidence indicating the need to develop and/or strengthen emergency medical care systems in these countries. An argument is made for the role of emergency medical care in improving the health of populations and meeting expectations for access to emergency care. We consider emergency medical care in the community, during transportation, and at first-contact and regional referral facilities. Obstacles to developing effective emergency medical care include a lack of structural models, inappropriate training foci, concerns about cost, and sustainability in the face of a high demand for services. A basic but effective level of emergency medical care responds to perceived and actual community needs and improves the health of populations. PMID:12481213

Modeling the C. elegans nematode and its environment using a particle system.

PubMed

Rönkkö, Mauno; Wong, Garry

2008-07-21

A particle system, as understood in computer science, is a novel technique for modeling living organisms in their environment. Such particle systems have traditionally been used for modeling the complex dynamics of fluids and gases. In the present study, a particle system was devised to model the movement and feeding behavior of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans in three different virtual environments: gel, liquid, and soil. The results demonstrate that distinct movements of the nematode can be attributed to its mechanical interactions with the virtual environment. These results also revealed emergent properties associated with modeling organisms within environment-based systems.

Systems Impact: Issues and Trends in Improving School Outcomes for All Learners through Multitier Instructional Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chard, David J.

2013-01-01

The majority of school districts implementing response to intervention use a systemwide, multitier model of delivery. This article describes the common features of multitier models and discusses the emerging evidence of their effectiveness. In addition, specific factors that schools should consider to enhance effective implementation of systemic,…

Emergency preparedness for the accidental release of radionuclides from the Uljin Nuclear Power Plant in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Soon-Ung; Lee, In-Hye; Joo, Seung Jin; Ju, Jae-Won

2017-12-01

Site specific radionuclide dispersion databases were archived for the emergency response to the hypothetical releases of 137 Cs from the Uljin nuclear power plant in Korea. These databases were obtained with the horizontal resolution of 1.5 km in the local domain centered the power plant site by simulations of the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) with the Unified Model (UM)-Local Data Assimilation Prediction System (LDAPS). The Eulerian Dispersion Model-East Asia (EDM-EA) with the UM-Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (UM-GDAPS) meteorological models was used to get dispersion databases in the regional domain. The LPDM model was performed for a year with a 5-day interval yielding 72 synoptic time-scale cases in a year. For each case hourly mean near surface concentrations, hourly mean column integrated concentrations, hourly total depositions for 5 consecutive days were archived by the LPDM model in the local domain and by the EDM-EA model in the regional domain of Asia. Among 72 synoptic cases in a year the worst synoptic case that showed the highest mean surface concentration averaged for 5 days in the LPDM model domain was chosen to illustrate the emergency preparedness to the hypothetical accident at the site. The simulated results by the LPDM model with the 137 Cs emission rate of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident for the first 5-day period were found to be able to provide prerequisite information for the emergency response to the early phase of the accident whereas those of the EDM-EA model could provide information required for the environmental impact assessment of the accident in the regional domain. The archived site-specific database of 72 synoptic cases in a year could have a great potential to be used as a prognostic information on the emergency preparedness for the early phase of accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

77 FR 4248 - Cyazofamid; Pesticide Tolerances for Emergency Exemptions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-27

.../water/index.htm . Based on the Pesticide Root Zone Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM/EXAMS... Classification System (NAICS) codes have been provided to assist you and others in determining whether this... reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential settings, but does...

Solving Immunology?

PubMed

Vodovotz, Yoram; Xia, Ashley; Read, Elizabeth L; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Hafler, David A; Sontag, Eduardo; Wang, Jin; Tsang, John S; Day, Judy D; Kleinstein, Steven H; Butte, Atul J; Altman, Matthew C; Hammond, Ross; Sealfon, Stuart C

2017-02-01

Emergent responses of the immune system result from the integration of molecular and cellular networks over time and across multiple organs. High-content and high-throughput analysis technologies, concomitantly with data-driven and mechanistic modeling, hold promise for the systematic interrogation of these complex pathways. However, connecting genetic variation and molecular mechanisms to individual phenotypes and health outcomes has proven elusive. Gaps remain in data, and disagreements persist about the value of mechanistic modeling for immunology. Here, we present the perspectives that emerged from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) workshop 'Complex Systems Science, Modeling and Immunity' and subsequent discussions regarding the potential synergy of high-throughput data acquisition, data-driven modeling, and mechanistic modeling to define new mechanisms of immunological disease and to accelerate the translation of these insights into therapies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surveillance for pneumonic plague in the United States during an international emergency: a model for control of imported emerging diseases.

PubMed Central

Fritz, C. L.; Dennis, D. T.; Tipple, M. A.; Campbell, G. L.; McCance, C. R.; Gubler, D. J.

1996-01-01

In September 1994, in response to a reported epidemic of plague in India, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) enhanced surveillance in the United States for imported pneumonic plague. Plague information materials were rapidly developed and distributed to U.S. public health officials by electronic mail, facsimile, and expedited publication. Information was also provided to medical practitioners and the public by recorded telephone messages and facsimile transmission. Existing quarantine protocols were modified to effect active surveillance for imported plague cases at U.S. airports. Private physicians and state and local health departments were relied on in a passive surveillance system to identify travelers with suspected plague not detected at airports. From September 27 to October 27, the surveillance system identified 13 persons with suspected plague; no case was confirmed. This coordinated response to an international health emergency may serve as a model for detecting other emerging diseases and preventing their importation. PMID:8964057

Surveillance for pneumonic plague in the United States during an international emergency: a model for control of imported emerging diseases.

PubMed

Fritz, C L; Dennis, D T; Tipple, M A; Campbell, G L; McCance, C R; Gubler, D J

1996-01-01

In September 1994, in response to a reported epidemic of plague in India, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) enhanced surveillance in the United States for imported pneumonic plague. Plague information materials were rapidly developed and distributed to U.S. public health officials by electronic mail, facsimile, and expedited publication. Information was also provided to medical practitioners and the public by recorded telephone messages and facsimile transmission. Existing quarantine protocols were modified to effect active surveillance for imported plague cases at U.S. airports. Private physicians and state and local health departments were relied on in a passive surveillance system to identify travelers with suspected plague not detected at airports. From September 27 to October 27, the surveillance system identified 13 persons with suspected plague; no case was confirmed. This coordinated response to an international health emergency may serve as a model for detecting other emerging diseases and preventing their importation.

Emergent 1d Ising Behavior in AN Elementary Cellular Automaton Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassebaum, Paul G.; Iannacchione, Germano S.

The fundamental nature of an evolving one-dimensional (1D) Ising model is investigated with an elementary cellular automaton (CA) simulation. The emergent CA simulation employs an ensemble of cells in one spatial dimension, each cell capable of two microstates interacting with simple nearest-neighbor rules and incorporating an external field. The behavior of the CA model provides insight into the dynamics of coupled two-state systems not expressible by exact analytical solutions. For instance, state progression graphs show the causal dynamics of a system through time in relation to the system's entropy. Unique graphical analysis techniques are introduced through difference patterns, diffusion patterns, and state progression graphs of the 1D ensemble visualizing the evolution. All analyses are consistent with the known behavior of the 1D Ising system. The CA simulation and new pattern recognition techniques are scalable (in both dimension, complexity, and size) and have many potential applications such as complex design of materials, control of agent systems, and evolutionary mechanism design.

Agent-based modelling in synthetic biology.

PubMed

Gorochowski, Thomas E

2016-11-30

Biological systems exhibit complex behaviours that emerge at many different levels of organization. These span the regulation of gene expression within single cells to the use of quorum sensing to co-ordinate the action of entire bacterial colonies. Synthetic biology aims to make the engineering of biology easier, offering an opportunity to control natural systems and develop new synthetic systems with useful prescribed behaviours. However, in many cases, it is not understood how individual cells should be programmed to ensure the emergence of a required collective behaviour. Agent-based modelling aims to tackle this problem, offering a framework in which to simulate such systems and explore cellular design rules. In this article, I review the use of agent-based models in synthetic biology, outline the available computational tools, and provide details on recently engineered biological systems that are amenable to this approach. I further highlight the challenges facing this methodology and some of the potential future directions. © 2016 The Author(s).

A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J.; Mancusi, L.

2014-11-01

Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

TOWARD A DETERMINISTIC MODEL OF PLANETARY FORMATION. VII. ECCENTRICITY DISTRIBUTION OF GAS GIANTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ida, S.; Lin, D. N. C.; Nagasawa, M., E-mail: ida@geo.titech.ac.jp, E-mail: lin@ucolick.org, E-mail: nagasawa.m.ad@m.titech.ac.jp

2013-09-20

The ubiquity of planets and diversity of planetary systems reveal that planet formation encompasses many complex and competing processes. In this series of papers, we develop and upgrade a population synthesis model as a tool to identify the dominant physical effects and to calibrate the range of physical conditions. Recent planet searches have led to the discovery of many multiple-planet systems. Any theoretical models of their origins must take into account dynamical interactions between emerging protoplanets. Here, we introduce a prescription to approximate the close encounters between multiple planets. We apply this method to simulate the growth, migration, and dynamicalmore » interaction of planetary systems. Our models show that in relatively massive disks, several gas giants and rocky/icy planets emerge, migrate, and undergo dynamical instability. Secular perturbation between planets leads to orbital crossings, eccentricity excitation, and planetary ejection. In disks with modest masses, two or less gas giants form with multiple super-Earths. Orbital stability in these systems is generally maintained and they retain the kinematic structure after gas in their natal disks is depleted. These results reproduce the observed planetary mass-eccentricity and semimajor axis-eccentricity correlations. They also suggest that emerging gas giants can scatter residual cores to the outer disk regions. Subsequent in situ gas accretion onto these cores can lead to the formation of distant (∼> 30 AU) gas giants with nearly circular orbits.« less

Evaluation of 6 and 10 Year-Old Child Human Body Models in Emergency Events.

PubMed

Gras, Laure-Lise; Stockman, Isabelle; Brolin, Karin

2017-01-01

Emergency events can influence a child's kinematics prior to a car-crash, and thus its interaction with the restraint system. Numerical Human Body Models (HBMs) can help understand the behaviour of children in emergency events. The kinematic responses of two child HBMs-MADYMO 6 and 10 year-old models-were evaluated and compared with child volunteers' data during emergency events-braking and steering-with a focus on the forehead and sternum displacements. The response of the 6 year-old HBM was similar to the response of the 10 year-old HBM, however both models had a different response compared with the volunteers. The forward and lateral displacements were within the range of volunteer data up to approximately 0.3 s; but then, the HBMs head and sternum moved significantly downwards, while the volunteers experienced smaller displacement and tended to come back to their initial posture. Therefore, these HBMs, originally intended for crash simulations, are not too stiff and could be able to reproduce properly emergency events thanks, for instance, to postural control.

Communal Sensor Network for Adaptive Noise Reduction in Aircraft Engine Nacelles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Kennie H.; Nark, Douglas M.; Jones, Michael G.

2011-01-01

Emergent behavior, a subject of much research in biology, sociology, and economics, is a foundational element of Complex Systems Science and is apropos in the design of sensor network systems. To demonstrate engineering for emergent behavior, a novel approach in the design of a sensor/actuator network is presented maintaining optimal noise attenuation as an adaptation to changing acoustic conditions. Rather than use the conventional approach where sensors are managed by a central controller, this new paradigm uses a biomimetic model where sensor/actuators cooperate as a community of autonomous organisms, sharing with neighbors to control impedance based on local information. From the combination of all individual actions, an optimal attenuation emerges for the global system.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toeroek, T.; Aulanier, G.; Schmieder, B.

We address the formation of three-dimensional nullpoint topologies in the solar corona by combining Hinode/X-ray Telescope (XRT) observations of a small dynamic limb event, which occurred beside a non-erupting prominence cavity, with a three-dimensional (3D) zero-beta magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation. To this end, we model the boundary-driven 'kinematic' emergence of a compact, intense, and uniformly twisted flux tube into a potential field arcade that overlies a weakly twisted coronal flux rope. The expansion of the emerging flux in the corona gives rise to the formation of a nullpoint at the interface of the emerging and the pre-existing fields. We unveil amore » two-step reconnection process at the nullpoint that eventually yields the formation of a broad 3D fan-spine configuration above the emerging bipole. The first reconnection involves emerging fields and a set of large-scale arcade field lines. It results in the launch of a torsional MHD wave that propagates along the arcades, and in the formation of a sheared loop system on one side of the emerging flux. The second reconnection occurs between these newly formed loops and remote arcade fields, and yields the formation of a second loop system on the opposite side of the emerging flux. The two loop systems collectively display an anenome pattern that is located below the fan surface. The flux that surrounds the inner spine field line of the nullpoint retains a fraction of the emerged twist, while the remaining twist is evacuated along the reconnected arcades. The nature and timing of the features which occur in the simulation do qualititatively reproduce those observed by XRT in the particular event studied in this paper. Moreover, the two-step reconnection process suggests a new consistent and generic model for the formation of anemone regions in the solar corona.« less

An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukkonen, J.; Nikmo, J.; Riikonen, K.

2017-02-01

We present a refined version of a mathematical model called ESCAPE, "Expert System for Consequence Analysis and Preparing for Emergencies". The model has been designed for evaluating the releases of toxic and flammable gases into the atmosphere, their atmospheric dispersion and the effects on humans and the environment. We describe (i) the mathematical treatments of this model, (ii) a verification and evaluation of the model against selected experimental field data, and (iii) a new operational implementation of the model. The new mathematical treatments include state-of-the-art atmospheric vertical profiles and new submodels for dense gas and passive atmospheric dispersion. The model performance was first successfully verified using the data of the Thorney Island campaign, and then evaluated against the Desert Tortoise campaign. For the latter campaign, the geometric mean bias was 1.72 (this corresponds to an underprediction of approximately 70%) and 0.71 (overprediction of approximately 30%) for the concentration and the plume half-width, respectively. The geometric variance was <1.5 (this corresponds to an agreement that is better than a factor of two). These values can be considered to indicate a good agreement of predictions and data, in comparison to values evaluated for a range of other similar models. The model has also been adapted to be able to automatically use the real time predictions and forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM, "HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model". The operational implementation of the ESCAPE modelling system can be accessed anywhere using internet browsers, on laptop computers, tablets and mobile phones. The predicted results can be post-processed using geographic information systems. The model has already proved to be a useful tool of assessment for the needs of emergency response authorities in contingency planning.

Information technology model for evaluating emergency medicine teaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorbach, James; Ryan, James

1996-02-01

This paper describes work in progress to develop an Information Technology (IT) model and supporting information system for the evaluation of clinical teaching in the Emergency Medicine (EM) Department of North Shore University Hospital. In the academic hospital setting student physicians, i.e. residents, and faculty function daily in their dual roles as teachers and students respectively, and as health care providers. Databases exist that are used to evaluate both groups in either academic or clinical performance, but rarely has this information been integrated to analyze the relationship between academic performance and the ability to care for patients. The goal of the IT model is to improve the quality of teaching of EM physicians by enabling the development of integrable metrics for faculty and resident evaluation. The IT model will include (1) methods for tracking residents in order to develop experimental databases; (2) methods to integrate lecture evaluation, clinical performance, resident evaluation, and quality assurance databases; and (3) a patient flow system to monitor patient rooms and the waiting area in the Emergency Medicine Department, to record and display status of medical orders, and to collect data for analyses.

The origin of intermediary metabolism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morowitz, H. J.; Kostelnik, J. D.; Yang, J.; Cody, G. D.

2000-01-01

The core of intermediary metabolism in autotrophs is the citric acid cycle. In a certain group of chemoautotrophs, the reductive citric acid cycle is an engine of synthesis, taking in CO(2) and synthesizing the molecules of the cycle. We have examined the chemistry of a model system of C, H, and O that starts with carbon dioxide and reductants and uses redox couples as the energy source. To inquire into the reaction networks that might emerge, we start with the largest available database of organic molecules, Beilstein on-line, and prune by a set of physical and chemical constraints applicable to the model system. From the 3.5 million entries in Beilstein we emerge with 153 molecules that contain all 11 members of the reductive citric acid cycle. A small number of selection rules generates a very constrained subset, suggesting that this is the type of reaction model that will prove useful in the study of biogenesis. The model indicates that the metabolism shown in the universal chart of pathways may be central to the origin of life, is emergent from organic chemistry, and may be unique.

[Emergencies and continuous care: overload of the current on-call system and search for new models].

PubMed

Enríquez-Navascués, Jose M

2008-04-01

Emergency surgical care is still provided by means of an 24 hours physical presence "on-call" model (encompassing a normal day followed by "on call"), and is obligatory for all staff. This defective organisation of work has become unsustainable with the acceptance of the European 48 hours Directive, and is gruelling due to the excessive night work and feeling of being locked in that it entails. Emergency general and digestive system surgery care cannot be provided by a single organisational model, but has to be adapted to local circumstances. It is important to separate scheduled activity from urgent, and whereas increasingly more resources are dedicated to scheduled care, sufficient resources are also required for urgent activities, that cannot be considered as simply an "on call" or a fleeting stop in scheduled activity. Core subjects in residency, creating different levels of provision and activities, the analysis of urgent activity per work period and the identification of foreseeable activity, to maintain a pro-active mentality, and the disappearance of the "overtime" concept, should help provide another care model and method of remuneration.

The User Interface: A Hypertext Model Linking Art Objects and Related Information.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moline, Judi

This report presents a model combining the emerging technologies of hypertext and expert systems. Hypertext is relatively unexplored but promises an innovative approach to information retrieval. In contrast, expert systems have been used experimentally in many different application areas ranging from medical diagnosis to oil exploration. The…

Defining Requirements and Applying Information Modeling for Protecting Enterprise Assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortier, Stephen C.; Volk, Jennifer H.

The advent of terrorist threats has heightened local, regional, and national governments' interest in emergency response and disaster preparedness. The threat of natural disasters also challenges emergency responders to act swiftly and in a coordinated fashion. When a disaster occurs, an ad hoc coalition of pre-planned groups usually forms to respond to the incident. History has shown that these “system of systems” do not interoperate very well. Communications between fire, police and rescue components either do not work or are inefficient. Government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and private industry use a wide array of software platforms for managing data about emergency conditions, resources and response activities. Most of these are stand-alone systems with very limited capability for data sharing with other agencies or other levels of government. Information technology advances have facilitated the movement towards an integrated and coordinated approach to emergency management. Other communication mechanisms, such as video teleconferencing, digital television and radio broadcasting, are being utilized to combat the challenges of emergency information exchange. Recent disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina and the tsunami in Indonesia, have illuminated the weaknesses in emergency response. This paper will discuss the need for defining requirements for components of ad hoc coalitions which are formed to respond to disasters. A goal of our effort was to develop a proof of concept that applying information modeling to the business processes used to protect and mitigate potential loss of an enterprise was feasible. These activities would be modeled both pre- and post-incident.

Development of a model-based flood emergency management system in Yujiang River Basin, South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yong; Cai, Yanpeng; Jia, Peng; Mao, Jiansu

2014-06-01

Flooding is the most frequent disaster in China. It affects people's lives and properties, causing considerable economic loss. Flood forecast and operation of reservoirs are important in flood emergency management. Although great progress has been achieved in flood forecast and reservoir operation through using computer, network technology, and geographic information system technology in China, the prediction accuracy of models are not satisfactory due to the unavailability of real-time monitoring data. Also, real-time flood control scenario analysis is not effective in many regions and can seldom provide online decision support function. In this research, a decision support system for real-time flood forecasting in Yujiang River Basin, South China (DSS-YRB) is introduced in this paper. This system is based on hydrological and hydraulic mathematical models. The conceptual framework and detailed components of the proposed DSS-YRB is illustrated, which employs real-time rainfall data conversion, model-driven hydrologic forecasting, model calibration, data assimilation methods, and reservoir operational scenario analysis. Multi-tiered architecture offers great flexibility, portability, reusability, and reliability. The applied case study results show the development and application of a decision support system for real-time flood forecasting and operation is beneficial for flood control.

Modeling-Enabled Systems Nutritional Immunology

PubMed Central

Verma, Meghna; Hontecillas, Raquel; Abedi, Vida; Leber, Andrew; Tubau-Juni, Nuria; Philipson, Casandra; Carbo, Adria; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep

2016-01-01

This review highlights the fundamental role of nutrition in the maintenance of health, the immune response, and disease prevention. Emerging global mechanistic insights in the field of nutritional immunology cannot be gained through reductionist methods alone or by analyzing a single nutrient at a time. We propose to investigate nutritional immunology as a massively interacting system of interconnected multistage and multiscale networks that encompass hidden mechanisms by which nutrition, microbiome, metabolism, genetic predisposition, and the immune system interact to delineate health and disease. The review sets an unconventional path to apply complex science methodologies to nutritional immunology research, discovery, and development through “use cases” centered around the impact of nutrition on the gut microbiome and immune responses. Our systems nutritional immunology analyses, which include modeling and informatics methodologies in combination with pre-clinical and clinical studies, have the potential to discover emerging systems-wide properties at the interface of the immune system, nutrition, microbiome, and metabolism. PMID:26909350

Emergence of grouping in multi-resource minority game dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zi-Gang; Zhang, Ji-Qiang; Dong, Jia-Qi; Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2012-10-01

Complex systems arising in a modern society typically have many resources and strategies available for their dynamical evolutions. To explore quantitatively the behaviors of such systems, we propose a class of models to investigate Minority Game (MG) dynamics with multiple strategies. In particular, agents tend to choose the least used strategies based on available local information. A striking finding is the emergence of grouping states defined in terms of distinct strategies. We develop an analytic theory based on the mean-field framework to understand the ``bifurcations'' of the grouping states. The grouping phenomenon has also been identified in the Shanghai Stock-Market system, and we discuss its prevalence in other real-world systems. Our work demonstrates that complex systems obeying the MG rules can spontaneously self-organize themselves into certain divided states, and our model represents a basic and general mathematical framework to address this kind of phenomena in social, economical and political systems.

System dynamic modeling: an alternative method for budgeting.

PubMed

Srijariya, Witsanuchai; Riewpaiboon, Arthorn; Chaikledkaew, Usa

2008-03-01

To construct, validate, and simulate a system dynamic financial model and compare it against the conventional method. The study was a cross-sectional analysis of secondary data retrieved from the National Health Security Office (NHSO) in the fiscal year 2004. The sample consisted of all emergency patients who received emergency services outside their registered hospital-catchments area. The dependent variable used was the amount of reimbursed money. Two types of model were constructed, namely, the system dynamic model using the STELLA software and the multiple linear regression model. The outputs of both methods were compared. The study covered 284,716 patients from various levels of providers. The system dynamic model had the capability of producing various types of outputs, for example, financial and graphical analyses. For the regression analysis, statistically significant predictors were composed of service types (outpatient or inpatient), operating procedures, length of stay, illness types (accident or not), hospital characteristics, age, and hospital location (adjusted R(2) = 0.74). The total budget arrived at from using the system dynamic model and regression model was US$12,159,614.38 and US$7,301,217.18, respectively, whereas the actual NHSO reimbursement cost was US$12,840,805.69. The study illustrated that the system dynamic model is a useful financial management tool, although it is not easy to construct. The model is not only more accurate in prediction but is also more capable of analyzing large and complex real-world situations than the conventional method.

The Implementation and Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) at Cape Canaveral Air Station/Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Randolph J.; Tremback, Craig J.; Lyons, Walter A.

1996-01-01

The Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) is a system which combines the mesoscale meteorological prediction model RAMS with the diffusion models REEDM and HYPACT. Operators use a graphical user interface to run the models for emergency response and toxic hazard planning at CCAS/KCS. The Applied Meteorology Unit has been evaluating the ERDAS meteorological and diffusion models and obtained the following results: (1) RAMS adequately predicts the occurrence of the daily sea breeze during non-cloudy conditions for several cases. (2) RAMS shows a tendency to predict the sea breeze to occur slightly earlier and to move it further inland than observed. The sea breeze predictions could most likely be improved by better parameterizing the soil moisture and/or sea surface temperatures. (3) The HYPACT/REEDM/RAMS models accurately predict launch plume locations when RAMS winds are accurate and when the correct plume layer is modeled. (4) HYPACT does not adequately handle plume buoyancy for heated plumes since all plumes are presently treated as passive tracers. Enhancements should be incorporated into the ERDAS as it moves toward being a fully operational system and as computer workstations continue to increase in power and decrease in cost. These enhancements include the following: activate RAMS moisture physics; use finer RAMS grid resolution; add RAMS input parameters (e.g. soil moisture, radar, and/or satellite data); automate data quality control; implement four-dimensional data assimilation; modify HYPACT plume rise and deposition physics; and add cumulative dosage calculations in HYPACT.

REAL-TIME high-resolution urban surface water flood mapping to support flood emergency management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, M.; Yu, D.; Wilby, R.

2016-12-01

Strong evidence has shown that urban flood risks will substantially increase because of urbanisation, economic growth, and more frequent weather extremes. To effectively manage these risks require not only traditional grey engineering solutions, but also a green management solution. Surface water flood risk maps based on return period are useful for planning purposes, but are limited for application in flood emergencies, because of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of rainfall and complex urban topography. Therefore, a REAL-TIME urban surface water mapping system is highly beneficial to increasing urban resilience to surface water flooding. This study integrated numerical weather forecast and high-resolution urban surface water modelling into a real-time multi-level surface water mapping system for Leicester City in the UK. For rainfall forecast, the 1km composite rain radar from the Met Office was used, and we used the advanced rainfall-runoff model - FloodMap to predict urban surface water at both city-level (10m-20m) and street-level (2m-5m). The system is capable of projecting 3-hour urban surface water flood, driven by rainfall derived from UK Met Office radar. Moreover, this system includes real-time accessibility mapping to assist the decision-making of emergency responders. This will allow accessibility (e.g. time to travel) from individual emergency service stations (e.g. Fire & Rescue; Ambulance) to vulnerable places to be evaluated. The mapping results will support contingency planning by emergency responders ahead of potential flood events.

Creating change through collaboration: a twinning partnership to strengthen emergency medicine at Addis Ababa University/Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital--a model for international medical education partnerships.

PubMed

Busse, Heidi; Azazh, Aklilu; Teklu, Sisay; Tupesis, Janis P; Woldetsadik, Assefu; Wubben, Ryan J; Tefera, Girma

2013-12-01

Morbidity and mortality due to the lack of an organized emergency medical care system are currently high in Ethiopia. Doctors, nurses, and other medical staff often have limited or no formal training on how to handle emergencies. Because of insufficient human and resource capacity needed to assess and treat acutely ill patients, many who are injured may die unnecessarily, at the site of injury, during transport, or at the hospital. This article describes the development of a twinning partnership between Addis Ababa University (AAU), the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW), and the nonprofit organization People to People (P2P), to strengthen emergency care at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH) and increase the number of trained emergency medical professionals. The partnership applied the six-phase twinning partnership model, with the overall goal of enhancing and strengthening emergency and trauma care by building institutional and human resource capacity. This was achieved by 1) developing local leaders in emergency medicine (EM), 2) creating training modules adapted to the Ethiopian context, 3) launching an emergency training center, and 4) supporting academic program development. The authors evaluated the program's effectiveness based on our achievements toward these goals. Results include: 1) eight Ethiopian faculty completed a condensed EM fellowship in the United States. Now six Ethiopian physicians serve as EM faculty and two as pediatric EM faculty. 2) Nine emergency training modules were adapted to the Ethiopian context. 3) An emergency training center was opened in 2010 and to date has trained over 4,000 Ethiopian medical professionals. 4) Two academic training programs (EM residency and masters nursing programs) were initiated. With many complex factors affecting the burden of emergency care, innovative and interdisciplinary collaborations are needed in Ethiopia to train medical workers, build local leadership capacity, strengthen infrastructure, and inform policies. The short-term achievements of this twinning model could suggest that long-term, institution-to-institution collaborations that are driven by local stakeholders are an effective strategy to create equitable relationships and build sustainable health systems and may serve as a model for other global health partnerships. © 2013 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Hydrodynamic Equations for Flocking Models without Velocity Alignment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peruani, Fernando

2017-10-01

The spontaneous emergence of collective motion patterns is usually associated with the presence of a velocity alignment mechanism that mediates the interactions among the moving individuals. Despite of this widespread view, it has been shown recently that several flocking behaviors can emerge in the absence of velocity alignment and as a result of short-range, position-based, attractive forces that act inside a vision cone. Here, we derive the corresponding hydrodynamic equations of a microscopic position-based flocking model, reviewing and extending previous reported results. In particular, we show that three distinct macroscopic collective behaviors can be observed: i) the coarsening of aggregates with no orientational order, ii) the emergence of static, elongated nematic bands, and iii) the formation of moving, locally polar structures, which we call worms. The derived hydrodynamic equations indicate that active particles interacting via position-based interactions belong to a distinct class of active systems fundamentally different from other active systems, including velocity-alignment-based flocking systems.

Next Generation Respiratory Viral Vaccine System: Advanced and Emerging Bioengineered Human Lung Epithelia Model (HLEM) Organoid Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodwin, Thomas J.; Schneider, Sandra L.; MacIntosh, Victor; Gibbons, Thomas F.

2010-01-01

Acute respiratory infections, including pneumonia and influenza, are the S t" leading cause of United States and worldwide deaths. Newly emerging pathogens signaled the need for an advanced generation of vaccine technology.. Human bronchial-tracheal epithelial tissue was bioengineered to detect, identify, host and study the pathogenesis of acute respiratory viral disease. The 3-dimensional (3D) human lung epithelio-mesechymal tissue-like assemblies (HLEM TLAs) share characteristics with human respiratory epithelium: tight junctions, desmosomes, microvilli, functional markers villin, keratins and production of tissue mucin. Respiratory Syntial Virus (RSV) studies demonstrate viral growth kinetics and membrane bound glycoproteins up to day 20 post infection in the human lung-orgainoid infected cell system. Peak replication of RSV occurred on day 10 at 7 log10 particles forming units per ml/day. HLEM is an advanced virus vaccine model and biosentinel system for emergent viral infectious diseases to support DoD global surveillance and military readiness.

Emergence of chaos in a spatially confined reactive system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voorsluijs, Valérie; De Decker, Yannick

2016-11-01

In spatially restricted media, interactions between particles and local fluctuations of density can lead to important deviations of the dynamics from the unconfined, deterministic picture. In this context, we investigated how molecular crowding can affect the emergence of chaos in small reactive systems. We developed to this end an amended version of the Willamowski-Rössler model, where we account for the impenetrability of the reactive species. We analyzed the deterministic kinetics of this model and studied it with spatially-extended stochastic simulations in which the mobility of particles is included explicitly. We show that homogeneous fluctuations can lead to a destruction of chaos through a fluctuation-induced collision between chaotic trajectories and absorbing states. However, an interplay between the size of the system and the mobility of particles can counterbalance this effect so that chaos can indeed be found when particles diffuse slowly. This unexpected effect can be traced back to the emergence of spatial correlations which strongly affect the dynamics. The mobility of particles effectively acts as a new bifurcation parameter, enabling the system to switch from stationary states to absorbing states, oscillations or chaos.

Modeling of electromagnetic brakes for enhanced braking capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kachroo, Pushkin; Ming, Qian

1998-01-01

In automatic highway systems, automatic brake actuation is a very important part of the overall control of the vehicle. Hence, a faster response and a robust braking system are crucial. This paper describes electromagnetic brakes as a supplementary system for regular friction brakes. This system provides better response time for emergency situations, and in general keeps the friction brake working longer and safer. A new mathematical model for electromagnetic brakes is proposed to describe their static characteristics. The performance of the new mathematical model is better than the other three models available in the literature.

Metallic Rotor Sizing and Performance Model for Flywheel Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Camille J.; Kraft, Thomas G.

2012-01-01

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is developing flywheel system requirements and designs for terrestrial and spacecraft applications. Several generations of flywheels have been designed and tested at GRC using in-house expertise in motors, magnetic bearings, controls, materials and power electronics. The maturation of a flywheel system from the concept phase to the preliminary design phase is accompanied by maturation of the Integrated Systems Performance model, where estimating relationships are replaced by physics based analytical techniques. The modeling can incorporate results from engineering model testing and emerging detail from the design process.

Emotions are emergent processes: they require a dynamic computational architecture

PubMed Central

Scherer, Klaus R.

2009-01-01

Emotion is a cultural and psychobiological adaptation mechanism which allows each individual to react flexibly and dynamically to environmental contingencies. From this claim flows a description of the elements theoretically needed to construct a virtual agent with the ability to display human-like emotions and to respond appropriately to human emotional expression. This article offers a brief survey of the desirable features of emotion theories that make them ideal blueprints for agent models. In particular, the component process model of emotion is described, a theory which postulates emotion-antecedent appraisal on different levels of processing that drive response system patterning predictions. In conclusion, investing seriously in emergent computational modelling of emotion using a nonlinear dynamic systems approach is suggested. PMID:19884141

Characterizing emergent properties of immunological systems with multi-cellular rule-based computational modeling.

PubMed

Chavali, Arvind K; Gianchandani, Erwin P; Tung, Kenneth S; Lawrence, Michael B; Peirce, Shayn M; Papin, Jason A

2008-12-01

The immune system is comprised of numerous components that interact with one another to give rise to phenotypic behaviors that are sometimes unexpected. Agent-based modeling (ABM) and cellular automata (CA) belong to a class of discrete mathematical approaches in which autonomous entities detect local information and act over time according to logical rules. The power of this approach lies in the emergence of behavior that arises from interactions between agents, which would otherwise be impossible to know a priori. Recent work exploring the immune system with ABM and CA has revealed novel insights into immunological processes. Here, we summarize these applications to immunology and, particularly, how ABM can help formulate hypotheses that might drive further experimental investigations of disease mechanisms.

Rule-Based Simulation of Multi-Cellular Biological Systems—A Review of Modeling Techniques

PubMed Central

Hwang, Minki; Garbey, Marc; Berceli, Scott A.; Tran-Son-Tay, Roger

2011-01-01

Emergent behaviors of multi-cellular biological systems (MCBS) result from the behaviors of each individual cells and their interactions with other cells and with the environment. Modeling MCBS requires incorporating these complex interactions among the individual cells and the environment. Modeling approaches for MCBS can be grouped into two categories: continuum models and cell-based models. Continuum models usually take the form of partial differential equations, and the model equations provide insight into the relationship among the components in the system. Cell-based models simulate each individual cell behavior and interactions among them enabling the observation of the emergent system behavior. This review focuses on the cell-based models of MCBS, and especially, the technical aspect of the rule-based simulation method for MCBS is reviewed. How to implement the cell behaviors and the interactions with other cells and with the environment into the computational domain is discussed. The cell behaviors reviewed in this paper are division, migration, apoptosis/necrosis, and differentiation. The environmental factors such as extracellular matrix, chemicals, microvasculature, and forces are also discussed. Application examples of these cell behaviors and interactions are presented. PMID:21369345

Applied Actant Network Theory: Toward the Automated Detection of Technoscientific Emergence from Full Text Publications and Patents (Open Access)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-02

Applied Actant-Network Theory: Toward the Automated Detection of Technoscientific Emergence from Full-Text Publications and Patents David C...Brock**, Olga Babko-Malaya*, James Pustejovsky***, Patrick Thomas****, *BAE Systems Advanced Information Technologies, ** David C. Brock Consulting... Wojick , D. 2008. Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields. Scientometrics, 75(3):495–518. Cook, T. D. and

The Emergence of Temporal Structures in Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainzer, Klaus

2010-10-01

Dynamical systems in classical, relativistic and quantum physics are ruled by laws with time reversibility. Complex dynamical systems with time-irreversibility are known from thermodynamics, biological evolution, growth of organisms, brain research, aging of people, and historical processes in social sciences. Complex systems are systems that compromise many interacting parts with the ability to generate a new quality of macroscopic collective behavior the manifestations of which are the spontaneous emergence of distinctive temporal, spatial or functional structures. But, emergence is no mystery. In a general meaning, the emergence of macroscopic features results from the nonlinear interactions of the elements in a complex system. Mathematically, the emergence of irreversible structures is modelled by phase transitions in non-equilibrium dynamics of complex systems. These methods have been modified even for chemical, biological, economic and societal applications (e.g., econophysics). Emergence of irreversible structures can also be simulated by computational systems. The question arises how the emergence of irreversible structures is compatible with the reversibility of fundamental physical laws. It is argued that, according to quantum cosmology, cosmic evolution leads from symmetry to complexity of irreversible structures by symmetry breaking and phase transitions. Thus, arrows of time and aging processes are not only subjective experiences or even contradictions to natural laws, but they can be explained by quantum cosmology and the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems. Human experiences and religious concepts of arrows of time are considered in a modern scientific framework. Platonic ideas of eternity are at least understandable with respect to mathematical invariance and symmetry of physical laws. Heraclit’s world of change and dynamics can be mapped onto our daily real-life experiences of arrows of time.

Emergence of linear elasticity from the atomistic description of matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cakir, Abdullah, E-mail: acakir@ntu.edu.sg; Pica Ciamarra, Massimo; Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, CNR–SPIN, Università di Napoli Federico II, I-80126 Napoli

2016-08-07

We investigate the emergence of the continuum elastic limit from the atomistic description of matter at zero temperature considering how locally defined elastic quantities depend on the coarse graining length scale. Results obtained numerically investigating different model systems are rationalized in a unifying picture according to which the continuum elastic limit emerges through a process determined by two system properties, the degree of disorder, and a length scale associated to the transverse low-frequency vibrational modes. The degree of disorder controls the emergence of long-range local shear stress and shear strain correlations, while the length scale influences the amplitude of themore » fluctuations of the local elastic constants close to the jamming transition.« less

A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Wei; Liu, Cheng; Thomas, Neil

2015-01-01

Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. Formore » left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.« less

On entanglement spreading in chaotic systems

DOE PAGES

Mezei, Márk; Stanford, Douglas

2017-05-11

We discuss the time dependence of subsystem entropies in interacting quantum systems. As a model for the time dependence, we suggest that the entropy is as large as possible given two constraints: one follows from the existence of an emergent light cone, and the other is a conjecture associated to the ''entanglement velocity'' v E. We compare this model to new holographic and spin chain computations, and to an operator growth picture. Finally, we introduce a second way of computing the emergent light cone speed in holographic theories that provides a boundary dynamics explanation for a special case of entanglementmore » wedge subregion duality in AdS/CFT.« less

A Study on Active Disaster Management System for Standardized Emergency Action Plan using BIM and Flood Damage Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, C.; Om, J.; Hwang, J.; Joo, K.; Heo, J.

2013-12-01

In recent, the frequency of extreme flood has been increasing due to climate change and global warming. Highly flood damages are mainly caused by the collapse of flood control structures such as dam and dike. In order to reduce these disasters, the disaster management system (DMS) through flood forecasting, inundation mapping, EAP (Emergency Action Plan) has been studied. The estimation of inundation damage and practical EAP are especially crucial to the DMS. However, it is difficult to predict inundation and take a proper action through DMS in real emergency situation because several techniques for inundation damage estimation are not integrated and EAP is supplied in the form of a document in Korea. In this study, the integrated simulation system including rainfall frequency analysis, rainfall-runoff modeling, inundation prediction, surface runoff analysis, and inland flood analysis was developed. Using this system coupled with standard GIS data, inundation damage can be estimated comprehensively and automatically. The standard EAP based on BIM (Building Information Modeling) was also established in this system. It is, therefore, expected that the inundation damages through this study over the entire area including buildings can be predicted and managed.

Advanced emergency braking controller design for pedestrian protection oriented automotive collision avoidance system.

PubMed

Lie, Guo; Zejian, Ren; Pingshu, Ge; Jing, Chang

2014-01-01

Automotive collision avoidance system, which aims to enhance the active safety of the vehicle, has become a hot research topic in recent years. However, most of the current systems ignore the active protection of pedestrian and other vulnerable groups in the transportation system. An advanced emergency braking control system is studied by taking into account the pedestrians and the vehicles. Three typical braking scenarios are defined and the safety situations are assessed by comparing the current distance between the host vehicle and the obstacle with the critical braking distance. To reflect the nonlinear time-varying characteristics and control effect of the longitudinal dynamics, the vehicle longitudinal dynamics model is established in CarSim. Then the braking controller with the structure of upper and lower layers is designed based on sliding mode control and the single neuron PID control when confronting deceleration or emergency braking conditions. Cosimulations utilizing CarSim and Simulink are finally carried out on a CarSim intelligent vehicle model to explore the effectiveness of the proposed controller. Results display that the designed controller has a good response in preventing colliding with the front vehicle or pedestrian.

Advanced Emergency Braking Controller Design for Pedestrian Protection Oriented Automotive Collision Avoidance System

PubMed Central

Lie, Guo; Zejian, Ren; Pingshu, Ge; Jing, Chang

2014-01-01

Automotive collision avoidance system, which aims to enhance the active safety of the vehicle, has become a hot research topic in recent years. However, most of the current systems ignore the active protection of pedestrian and other vulnerable groups in the transportation system. An advanced emergency braking control system is studied by taking into account the pedestrians and the vehicles. Three typical braking scenarios are defined and the safety situations are assessed by comparing the current distance between the host vehicle and the obstacle with the critical braking distance. To reflect the nonlinear time-varying characteristics and control effect of the longitudinal dynamics, the vehicle longitudinal dynamics model is established in CarSim. Then the braking controller with the structure of upper and lower layers is designed based on sliding mode control and the single neuron PID control when confronting deceleration or emergency braking conditions. Cosimulations utilizing CarSim and Simulink are finally carried out on a CarSim intelligent vehicle model to explore the effectiveness of the proposed controller. Results display that the designed controller has a good response in preventing colliding with the front vehicle or pedestrian. PMID:25097870

Utilization of Norway’s Emergency Wards: The Second 5 Years after the Introduction of the Patient List System

PubMed Central

Goth, Ursula S.; Hammer, Hugo L.; Claussen, Bjørgulf

2014-01-01

Utilization of services is an important indicator for estimating access to healthcare. In Norway, the General Practitioner Scheme, a patient list system, was established in 2001 to enable a stable doctor-patient relationship. Although satisfaction with the system is generally high, people often choose a more accessible but inferior solution for routine care: emergency wards. The aim of the article is to investigate contact patterns in primary health care situations for the total population in urban and remote areas of Norway and for major immigrant groups in Oslo. The primary regression model had a cross-sectional study design analyzing 2,609,107 consultations in representative municipalities across Norway, estimating the probability of choosing the emergency ward in substitution to a general practitioner. In a second regression model comprising 625,590 consultations in Oslo, we calculated this likelihood for immigrants from the 14 largest groups. We noted substantial differences in emergency ward utilization between ethnic Norwegians both in rural and remote areas and among the various immigrant groups residing in Oslo. Oslo utilization of emergency ward services for the whole population declined, and so did this use among all immigrant groups after 2009. Other municipalities, while overwhelmingly ethnically Norwegian, showed diverse patterns including an increase in some and a decrease in others, results which we were unable to explain. PMID:24662997

Decision Support for Emergency Operations Centers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Craig; Lawhead, Joel; Watts, Zack

2005-01-01

The Flood Disaster Mitigation Decision Support System (DSS) is a computerized information system that allows regional emergency-operations government officials to make decisions regarding the dispatch of resources in response to flooding. The DSS implements a real-time model of inundation utilizing recently acquired lidar elevation data as well as real-time data from flood gauges, and other instruments within and upstream of an area that is or could become flooded. The DSS information is updated as new data become available. The model generates realtime maps of flooded areas and predicts flood crests at specified locations. The inundation maps are overlaid with information on population densities, property values, hazardous materials, evacuation routes, official contact information, and other information needed for emergency response. The program maintains a database and a Web portal through which real-time data from instrumentation are gathered into the database. Also included in the database is a geographic information system, from which the program obtains the overlay data for areas of interest as needed. The portal makes some portions of the database accessible to the public. Access to other portions of the database is restricted to government officials according to various levels of authorization. The Flood Disaster Mitigation DSS has been integrated into a larger DSS named REACT (Real-time Emergency Action Coordination Tool), which also provides emergency operations managers with data for any type of impact area such as floods, fires, bomb

Using a discrete-event simulation to balance ambulance availability and demand in static deployment systems.

PubMed

Wu, Ching-Han; Hwang, Kevin P

2009-12-01

To improve ambulance response time, matching ambulance availability with the emergency demand is crucial. To maintain the standard of 90% of response times within 9 minutes, the authors introduce a discrete-event simulation method to estimate the threshold for expanding the ambulance fleet when demand increases and to find the optimal dispatching strategies when provisional events create temporary decreases in ambulance availability. The simulation model was developed with information from the literature. Although the development was theoretical, the model was validated on the emergency medical services (EMS) system of Tainan City. The data are divided: one part is for model development, and the other for validation. For increasing demand, the effect was modeled on response time when call arrival rates increased. For temporary availability decreases, the authors simulated all possible alternatives of ambulance deployment in accordance with the number of out-of-routine-duty ambulances and the durations of three types of mass gatherings: marathon races (06:00-10:00 hr), rock concerts (18:00-22:00 hr), and New Year's Eve parties (20:00-01:00 hr). Statistical analysis confirmed that the model reasonably represented the actual Tainan EMS system. The response-time standard could not be reached when the incremental ratio of call arrivals exceeded 56%, which is the threshold for the Tainan EMS system to expand its ambulance fleet. When provisional events created temporary availability decreases, the Tainan EMS system could spare at most two ambulances from the standard configuration, except between 20:00 and 01:00, when it could spare three. The model also demonstrated that the current Tainan EMS has two excess ambulances that could be dropped. The authors suggest dispatching strategies to minimize the response times in routine daily emergencies. Strategies of capacity management based on this model improved response times. The more ambulances that are out of routine duty, the better the performance of the optimal strategies that are based on this model.

Emergence of cytotoxic resistance in cancer cell populations: Single-cell mechanisms and population-level consequences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lorenzi, Tommaso; Chisholm, Rebecca H.; Lorz, Alexander

We formulate an individual-based model and a population model of phenotypic evolution, under cytotoxic drugs, in a cancer cell population structured by the expression levels of survival-potential and proliferation-potential. We apply these models to a recently studied experimental system. Our results suggest that mechanisms based on fundamental laws of biology can reversibly push an actively-proliferating, and drug-sensitive, cell population to transition into a weakly-proliferative and drug-tolerant state, which will eventually facilitate the emergence of more potent, proliferating and drug-tolerant cells.

[The five commandments for preparing the Israeli healthcare system for emergencies].

PubMed

Adini, Bruria; Laor, Danny; Cohen, Robert; Lev, Boaz; Israeli, Avi

2010-07-01

In the last decade, the Israeli healthcare system dealt with many casualties that resulted from terrorist actions and at the same time maintained preparedness for other potential hazards such as natural disasters, toxicological, chemical, radiological and biological events. There are various models for emergency preparedness that are utilized in different countries. The aim of the article is to present the structure and the methodology of the Israeli healthcare system for emergencies. Assuring emergency preparedness for the different scenarios is based on 5 major components that include: comprehensive contingency planning; control and command of operations; central control of readiness; capacity building; coordination and collaboration among the numerous emergency agencies. CLose working relationships between the military and civilian systems characterize the operations of the emergency system. There is a mutual sharing of information, coordinated operations to achieve risk assessment and determine priorities, and consensual allocation of resources. The ability of the medical system to operate in optimal coordination with interface bodies, including the Israel Defense Forces, is derived from three main elements: the shortage of resources necessitate that all agencies work together to develop an effective response to emergencies; the Israeli society is characterized by transition of personnel from the military to the civilian system which promotes joint operations, whereas in most other countries these systems are completely separated; and also developing mechanisms for continuous and coordinated operation in routine and emergency times, such as the Supreme Health Authority. The Israeli healthcare system was put to the test several times in the Last decade, during the terror wave that occurred between 2001-2006, the 2nd Lebanon War and in operation "Cast Lead". An extensive process of learning lessons, conducted during and following each of these periods, and the existence of a mechanism which facilitated the definition of a systematic policy and the examination of its implementation, enabled the healthcare system to provide medical services to the population and to improve its preparedness by an ongoing process.

Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions.

PubMed

Akselrod, Hana; Mercon, Monica; Kirkeby Risoe, Petter; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; McGovern, Joanne; Bogucki, Sandy

2012-01-01

Modern computational models of infectious diseases greatly enhance our ability to understand new infectious threats and assess the effects of different interventions. The recently-released CDC Framework for Preventing Infectious Diseases calls for increased use of predictive modelling of epidemic emergence for public health preparedness. Currently, the utility of these technologies in preparedness and response to outbreaks is limited by gaps between modelling output and information requirements for incident management. The authors propose an operational structure that will facilitate integration of modelling capabilities into action planning for outbreak management, using the Incident Command System (ICS) and Synchronization Matrix framework. It is designed to be adaptable and scalable for use by state and local planners under the National Response Framework (NRF) and Emergency Support Function #8 (ESF-8). Specific epidemiological modelling requirements are described, and integrated with the core processes for public health emergency decision support. These methods can be used in checklist format to align prospective or real-time modelling output with anticipated decision points, and guide strategic situational assessments at the community level. It is anticipated that formalising these processes will facilitate translation of the CDC's policy guidance from theory to practice during public health emergencies involving infectious outbreaks.

The cosmological model of eternal inflation and the transition from chance to biological evolution in the history of life

PubMed Central

Koonin, Eugene V

2007-01-01

Background Recent developments in cosmology radically change the conception of the universe as well as the very notions of "probable" and "possible". The model of eternal inflation implies that all macroscopic histories permitted by laws of physics are repeated an infinite number of times in the infinite multiverse. In contrast to the traditional cosmological models of a single, finite universe, this worldview provides for the origin of an infinite number of complex systems by chance, even as the probability of complexity emerging in any given region of the multiverse is extremely low. This change in perspective has profound implications for the history of any phenomenon, and life on earth cannot be an exception. Hypothesis Origin of life is a chicken and egg problem: for biological evolution that is governed, primarily, by natural selection, to take off, efficient systems for replication and translation are required, but even barebones cores of these systems appear to be products of extensive selection. The currently favored (partial) solution is an RNA world without proteins in which replication is catalyzed by ribozymes and which serves as the cradle for the translation system. However, the RNA world faces its own hard problems as ribozyme-catalyzed RNA replication remains a hypothesis and the selective pressures behind the origin of translation remain mysterious. Eternal inflation offers a viable alternative that is untenable in a finite universe, i.e., that a coupled system of translation and replication emerged by chance, and became the breakthrough stage from which biological evolution, centered around Darwinian selection, took off. A corollary of this hypothesis is that an RNA world, as a diverse population of replicating RNA molecules, might have never existed. In this model, the stage for Darwinian selection is set by anthropic selection of complex systems that rarely but inevitably emerge by chance in the infinite universe (multiverse). Conclusion The plausibility of different models for the origin of life on earth directly depends on the adopted cosmological scenario. In an infinite universe (multiverse), emergence of highly complex systems by chance is inevitable. Therefore, under this cosmology, an entity as complex as a coupled translation-replication system should be considered a viable breakthrough stage for the onset of biological evolution. Reviewers This article was reviewed by Eric Bapteste, David Krakauer, Sergei Maslov, and Itai Yanai. PMID:17540027

The cosmological model of eternal inflation and the transition from chance to biological evolution in the history of life.

PubMed

Koonin, Eugene V

2007-05-31

Recent developments in cosmology radically change the conception of the universe as well as the very notions of "probable" and "possible". The model of eternal inflation implies that all macroscopic histories permitted by laws of physics are repeated an infinite number of times in the infinite multiverse. In contrast to the traditional cosmological models of a single, finite universe, this worldview provides for the origin of an infinite number of complex systems by chance, even as the probability of complexity emerging in any given region of the multiverse is extremely low. This change in perspective has profound implications for the history of any phenomenon, and life on earth cannot be an exception. Origin of life is a chicken and egg problem: for biological evolution that is governed, primarily, by natural selection, to take off, efficient systems for replication and translation are required, but even barebones cores of these systems appear to be products of extensive selection. The currently favored (partial) solution is an RNA world without proteins in which replication is catalyzed by ribozymes and which serves as the cradle for the translation system. However, the RNA world faces its own hard problems as ribozyme-catalyzed RNA replication remains a hypothesis and the selective pressures behind the origin of translation remain mysterious. Eternal inflation offers a viable alternative that is untenable in a finite universe, i.e., that a coupled system of translation and replication emerged by chance, and became the breakthrough stage from which biological evolution, centered around Darwinian selection, took off. A corollary of this hypothesis is that an RNA world, as a diverse population of replicating RNA molecules, might have never existed. In this model, the stage for Darwinian selection is set by anthropic selection of complex systems that rarely but inevitably emerge by chance in the infinite universe (multiverse). The plausibility of different models for the origin of life on earth directly depends on the adopted cosmological scenario. In an infinite universe (multiverse), emergence of highly complex systems by chance is inevitable. Therefore, under this cosmology, an entity as complex as a coupled translation-replication system should be considered a viable breakthrough stage for the onset of biological evolution. This article was reviewed by Eric Bapteste, David Krakauer, Sergei Maslov, and Itai Yanai.

The effect of the size of the system, aspect ratio and impurities concentration on the dynamic of emergent magnetic monopoles in artificial spin ice systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

León, Alejandro

2013-08-01

In this work we study the dynamical properties of a finite array of nanomagnets in artificial kagome spin ice at room temperature. The dynamic response of the array of nanomagnets is studied by implementing a "frustrated celular autómata" (FCA), based in the charge model and dipolar model. The FCA simulations allow us to study in real-time and deterministic way, the dynamic of the system, with minimal computational resource. The update function is defined according to the coordination number of vertices in the system. Our results show that for a set geometric parameters of the array of nanomagnets, the system exhibits high density of Dirac strings and high density emergent magnetic monopoles. A study of the effect of disorder in the arrangement of nanomagnets is incorporated in this work.

On the analysis of complex biological supply chains: From Process Systems Engineering to Quantitative Systems Pharmacology.

PubMed

Rao, Rohit T; Scherholz, Megerle L; Hartmanshenn, Clara; Bae, Seul-A; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2017-12-05

The use of models in biology has become particularly relevant as it enables investigators to develop a mechanistic framework for understanding the operating principles of living systems as well as in quantitatively predicting their response to both pathological perturbations and pharmacological interventions. This application has resulted in a synergistic convergence of systems biology and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling techniques that has led to the emergence of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP). In this review, we discuss how the foundational principles of chemical process systems engineering inform the progressive development of more physiologically-based systems biology models.

The Interactions between Problem Solving and Conceptual Change: System Dynamic Modelling as a Platform for Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chwee Beng

2010-01-01

This study examines the interactions between problem solving and conceptual change in an elementary science class where students build system dynamic models as a form of problem representations. Through mostly qualitative findings, we illustrate the interplay of three emerging intervening conditions (epistemological belief, structural knowledge…

Soft Systems Methodology and Problem Framing: Development of an Environmental Problem Solving Model Respecting a New Emergent Reflexive Paradigm.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gauthier, Benoit; And Others

1997-01-01

Identifies the more representative problem-solving models in environmental education. Suggests the addition of a strategy for defining a problem situation using Soft Systems Methodology to environmental education activities explicitly designed for the development of critical thinking. Contains 45 references. (JRH)

A Model for Talent Management and Career Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waheed, Sajjad; Zaim, A. Halim

2015-01-01

This paper discusses a talent management and career planning system designed based on the performance and qualifications of a group of interns working for an emerging social media company located in Istanbul. The proposed model is dynamic, comparative, and perceptional in constructing a talent pool for an organization. This system was developed…

Why language really is not a communication system: a cognitive view of language evolution

PubMed Central

Reboul, Anne C.

2015-01-01

While most evolutionary scenarios for language see it as a communication system with consequences on the language-ready brain, there are major difficulties for such a view. First, language has a core combination of features—semanticity, discrete infinity, and decoupling—that makes it unique among communication systems and that raise deep problems for the view that it evolved for communication. Second, extant models of communication systems—the code model of communication (Millikan, 2005) and the ostensive model of communication (Scott-Phillips, 2015) cannot account for language evolution. I propose an alternative view, according to which language first evolved as a cognitive tool, following Fodor’s (1975, 2008) Language of Thought Hypothesis, and was then exapted (externalized) for communication. On this view, a language-ready brain is a brain profoundly reorganized in terms of connectivity, allowing the human conceptual system to emerge, triggering the emergence of syntax. Language as used in communication inherited its core combination of features from the Language of Thought. PMID:26441802

Industry Application ECCS / LOCA Integrated Cladding/Emergency Core Cooling System Performance: Demonstration of LOTUS-Baseline Coupled Analysis of the South Texas Plant Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Hongbin; Szilard, Ronaldo; Epiney, Aaron

Under the auspices of the DOE LWRS Program RISMC Industry Application ECCS/LOCA, INL has engaged staff from both South Texas Project (STP) and the Texas A&M University (TAMU) to produce a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) model including reactor core, clad/fuel design and systems thermal hydraulics based on the South Texas Project (STP) nuclear power plant, a 4-Loop Westinghouse PWR. A RISMC toolkit, named LOCA Toolkit for the U.S. (LOTUS), has been developed for use in this generic PWR plant model to assess safety margins for the proposed NRC 10 CFR 50.46c rule, Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) performance duringmore » LOCA. This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermalhydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results. Within this context, a multi-physics best estimate plus uncertainty (MPBEPU) methodology framework is proposed.« less

Phase transitions in adaptive competitive environments: Theories and applications of the minority game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi

It is of great scientific significance to study the complex systems of agents with adaptive strategies competing for resources. In many of such systems in social and biological environments, agents succeed by making innovative choices. In this thesis, we model this behavior by presenting the results and analysis of a class of games in which heterogeneous agents are rewarded for being in a minority group. Each agent possesses a number of fixed strategies, each of which takes publicly available information as input to predict next group. Commonly known as the minority game, this simple model manifests a maladaptive, informationally efficient phase in which the system performs poorly at generating resources and an inefficient phase in which there is an emergent cooperation among the agents, and the system more effectively generates resources. The best emergent coordination is achieved at the phase transition, which occurs when z, the ratio of the dimension of the strategy space to the number of agents, is about 0.34. This model also has similar properties to a spin glass system thus statistical mechanics methods were employed to provide analytical results. The phase structure persists under variations such as variable payoff schemes and evolutionary mechanisms. Agents in real life are subject to local connectivity and incomplete information. A framework based on bi-graph was proposed to model these factors. In the context of economics, we proposed a stock market model incorporating delayed majority dynamics and agents holding heterogeneous expectations. We found that for a range of parameter settings, minority dynamics are dynamically induced, effectively reducing market volatility. Finally, we introduce a version of the minority game played by human participants. We observed emergent coordination of players' choices leading to increased average reward. Furthermore, players with the simplest strategies reap the most wealth.

A dynamic vulnerability evaluation model to smart grid for the emergency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhen; Wu, Xiaowei; Fang, Diange

2018-01-01

Smart grid shows more significant vulnerability to natural disasters and external destroy. According to the influence characteristics of important facilities suffered from typical kinds of natural disaster and external destroy, this paper built a vulnerability evaluation index system of important facilities in smart grid based on eight typical natural disasters, including three levels of static and dynamic indicators, totally forty indicators. Then a smart grid vulnerability evaluation method was proposed based on the index system, including determining the value range of each index, classifying the evaluation grade standard and giving the evaluation process and integrated index calculation rules. Using the proposed evaluation model, it can identify the most vulnerable parts of smart grid, and then help adopting targeted emergency response measures, developing emergency plans and increasing its capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation, which guarantee its safe and stable operation.

Reducing systems biology to practice in pharmaceutical company research; selected case studies.

PubMed

Benson, N; Cucurull-Sanchez, L; Demin, O; Smirnov, S; van der Graaf, P

2012-01-01

Reviews of the productivity of the pharmaceutical industry have concluded that the current business model is unsustainable. Various remedies for this have been proposed, however, arguably these do not directly address the fundamental issue; namely, that it is the knowledge required to enable good decisions in the process of delivering a drug that is largely absent; in turn, this leads to a disconnect between our intuition of what the right drug target is and the reality of pharmacological intervention in a system such as a human disease state. As this system is highly complex, modelling will be required to elucidate emergent properties together with the data necessary to construct such models. Currently, however, both the models and data available are limited. The ultimate solution to the problem of pharmaceutical productivity may be the virtual human, however, it is likely to be many years, if at all, before this goal is realised. The current challenge is, therefore, whether systems modelling can contribute to improving productivity in the pharmaceutical industry in the interim and help to guide the optimal route to the virtual human. In this context, this chapter discusses the emergence of systems pharmacology in drug discovery from the interface of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling and systems biology. Examples of applications to the identification of optimal drug targets in given pathways, selecting drug modalities and defining biomarkers are discussed, together with future directions.

Using Game Theory Techniques and Concepts to Develop Proprietary Models for Use in Intelligent Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christopher, Timothy Van

2011-01-01

This work is about analyzing games as models of systems. The goal is to understand the techniques that have been used by game designers in the past, and to compare them to the study of mathematical game theory. Through the study of a system or concept a model often emerges that can effectively educate students about making intelligent decisions…

Modeling Environment for Total Risk-2E

EPA Science Inventory

MENTOR-2E uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent source-to-dose-to-response modeling framework to quantify inhalation exposure and doses resulting from emergency events. It is an implementation of the MENTOR system that is focused towards modeling of the impacts of rele...

Quantum entanglement in photoactive prebiotic systems.

PubMed

Tamulis, Arvydas; Grigalavicius, Mantas

2014-06-01

This paper contains the review of quantum entanglement investigations in living systems, and in the quantum mechanically modelled photoactive prebiotic kernel systems. We define our modelled self-assembled supramolecular photoactive centres, composed of one or more sensitizer molecules, precursors of fatty acids and a number of water molecules, as a photoactive prebiotic kernel systems. We propose that life first emerged in the form of such minimal photoactive prebiotic kernel systems and later in the process of evolution these photoactive prebiotic kernel systems would have produced fatty acids and covered themselves with fatty acid envelopes to become the minimal cells of the Fatty Acid World. Specifically, we model self-assembling of photoactive prebiotic systems with observed quantum entanglement phenomena. We address the idea that quantum entanglement was important in the first stages of origins of life and evolution of the biospheres because simultaneously excite two prebiotic kernels in the system by appearance of two additional quantum entangled excited states, leading to faster growth and self-replication of minimal living cells. The quantum mechanically modelled possibility of synthesizing artificial self-reproducing quantum entangled prebiotic kernel systems and minimal cells also impacts the possibility of the most probable path of emergence of protocells on the Earth or elsewhere. We also examine the quantum entangled logic gates discovered in the modelled systems composed of two prebiotic kernels. Such logic gates may have application in the destruction of cancer cells or becoming building blocks of new forms of artificial cells including magnetically active ones.

Mobile Integrated Health Care and Community Paramedicine: An Emerging Emergency Medical Services Concept.

PubMed

Choi, Bryan Y; Blumberg, Charles; Williams, Kenneth

2016-03-01

Mobile integrated health care and community paramedicine are models of health care delivery that use emergency medical services (EMS) personnel to fill gaps in local health care infrastructure. Community paramedics may perform in an expanded role and require additional training in the management of chronic disease, communication skills, and cultural sensitivity, whereas other models use all levels of EMS personnel without additional training. Currently, there are few studies of the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of mobile integrated health care and community paramedicine programs. Observations from existing program data suggest that these systems may prevent congestive heart failure readmissions, reduce EMS frequent-user transports, and reduce emergency department visits. Additional studies are needed to support the clinical and economic benefit of mobile integrated health care and community paramedicine. Copyright © 2015 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Erythro-Myeloid Progenitors: “definitive” hematopoiesis in the conceptus prior to the emergence of hematopoietic stem cells

PubMed Central

Frame, Jenna M.; McGrath, Kathleen E.; Palis, James

2013-01-01

Erythro-myeloid progenitors (EMP) serve as a major source of hematopoiesis in the developing conceptus prior to the formation of a permanent blood system. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge regarding the emergence, fate, and potential of this hematopoietic stem cell (HSC)-independent wave of hematopoietic progenitors, focusing on the murine embryo as a model system. A better understanding of the temporal and spatial control of hematopoietic emergence in the embryo will ultimately improve our ability to derive hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells from embryonic stem cells and induced pluripotent stem cells to serve therapeutic purposes. PMID:24095199

Building Systems from Scratch: an Exploratory Study of Students Learning About Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puttick, Gillian; Tucker-Raymond, Eli

2018-01-01

Science and computational practices such as modeling and abstraction are critical to understanding the complex systems that are integral to climate science. Given the demonstrated affordances of game design in supporting such practices, we implemented a free 4-day intensive workshop for middle school girls that focused on using the visual programming environment, Scratch, to design games to teach others about climate change. The experience was carefully constructed so that girls of widely differing levels of experience were able to engage in a cycle of game design. This qualitative study aimed to explore the representational choices the girls made as they took up aspects of climate change systems and modeled them in their games. Evidence points to the ways in which designing games about climate science fostered emergent systems thinking and engagement in modeling practices as learners chose what to represent in their games, grappled with the realism of their respective representations, and modeled interactions among systems components. Given the girls' levels of programming skill, parts of systems were more tractable to create than others. The educational purpose of the games was important to the girls' overall design experience, since it influenced their choice of topic, and challenged their emergent understanding of climate change as a systems problem.

Applying business intelligence innovations to emergency management.

PubMed

Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; Albanese, Joseph

2014-01-01

The use of business intelligence (BI) is common among corporations in the private sector to improve business decision making and create insights for competitive advantage. Increasingly, emergency management agencies are using tools and processes similar to BI systems. With a more thorough understanding of the principles of BI and its supporting technologies, and a careful comparison to the business model of emergency management, this paper seeks to provide insights into how lessons from the private sector can contribute to the development of effective and efficient emergency management BI utilisation.

Eco-evolutionary Red Queen dynamics regulate biodiversity in a metabolite-driven microbial system.

PubMed

Bonachela, Juan A; Wortel, Meike T; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2017-12-15

The Red Queen Hypothesis proposes that perpetual co-evolution among organisms can result from purely biotic drivers. After more than four decades, there is no satisfactory understanding as to which mechanisms trigger Red Queen dynamics or their implications for ecosystem features such as biodiversity. One reason for such a knowledge gap is that typical models are complicated theories where limit cycles represent an idealized Red Queen, and therefore cannot be used to devise experimental setups. Here, we bridge this gap by introducing a simple model for microbial systems able to show Red Queen dynamics. We explore diverse biotic sources that can drive the emergence of the Red Queen and that have the potential to be found in nature or to be replicated in the laboratory. Our model enables an analytical understanding of how Red Queen dynamics emerge in our setup, and the translation of model terms and phenomenology into general underlying mechanisms. We observe, for example, that in our system the Red Queen offers opportunities for the increase of biodiversity by facilitating challenging conditions for intraspecific dominance, whereas stasis tends to homogenize the system. Our results can be used to design and engineer experimental microbial systems showing Red Queen dynamics.

HARMONIZATION AND COMMUNICATION OF PBPK MODELS USING THE EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATION MODEL (ERDEM) SYSTEM: TRICHLOROETHYLENE

EPA Science Inventory

In support of the trichloroethylene (TCE) risk assessment for the Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, and Office of Water, NERL and NCEA are developing an updated physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. The PBPK modeling effort ...

HARMONIZATION AND COMMUNICATION OF PBPK MODELS USING THE EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE MODEL (ERDEM) SYSTEM: TRICHLOROETHYLENE

EPA Science Inventory

In support of the trichloroethylene (TCE) risk assessment for the Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, and Office of Water, NERL and NCEA are developing an updated physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. The PBPK modeling effor...

Information technology and public health management of disasters--a model for South Asian countries.

PubMed

Mathew, Dolly

2005-01-01

This paper highlights the use of information technology (IT) in disaster management and public health management of disasters. Effective health response to disasters will depend on three important lines of action: (1) disaster preparedness; (2) emergency relief; and (3) management of disasters. This is facilitated by the presence of modern communication and space technology, especially the Internet and remote sensing satellites. This has made the use of databases, knowledge bases, geographic information systems (GIS), management information systems (MIS), information transfer, and online connectivity possible in the area of disaster management and medicine. This paper suggests a conceptual model called, "The Model for Public Health Management of Disasters for South Asia". This Model visualizes the use of IT in the public health management of disasters by setting up the Health and Disaster Information Network and Internet Community Centers, which will facilitate cooperation among all those in the areas of disaster management and emergency medicine. The suggested infrastructure would benefit the governments, non-government organizations, and institutions working in the areas of disaster and emergency medicine, professionals, the community, and all others associated with disaster management and emergency medicine. The creation of such an infrastructure will enable the rapid transfer of information, data, knowledge, and online connectivity from top officials to the grassroots organizations, and also among these countries regionally. This Model may be debated, modified, and tested further in the field to suit the national and local conditions. It is hoped that this exercise will result in a viable and practical model for use in public health management of disasters by South Asian countries.

SMART-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Palmintier, Bryan

This presentation provides an overview of full-scale, high-quality, synthetic distribution system data set(s) for testing distribution automation algorithms, distributed control approaches, ADMS capabilities, and other emerging distribution technologies.

Why was resistance to shorter-acting pre-emergence herbicides slower to evolve?

PubMed

Somerville, Gayle J; Powles, Stephen B; Walsh, Michael J; Renton, Michael

2017-05-01

Across several agricultural systems the evolution of herbicide resistance has occurred more rapidly to post-emergence than pre-emergence herbicides; however, the reasons for this are not clear. We used a new simulation model to investigate whether interactions between differences in order of application and weed cohorts affected could explain this historically observed difference between the herbicide groups. A 10 year delay in resistance evolution was predicted for a shorter-acting residual pre-emergence (cf. post-emergence), when all other parameters were identical. Differences in order of application between pre- and post-emergence herbicides had minimal effect on rates of resistance evolution when similar weed cohorts were affected. This modelling suggested that the historically observed lower levels of resistance to pre-emergence herbicides are most likely to be due to the smaller number of weed cohorts affected by many pre-emergence herbicides. The lower number of weed cohorts affected by pre-emergence herbicides necessitated the use of additional, effective control measures, thereby reducing resistance evolution. This study highlights the advantages of applying multiple control measures to each weed cohort. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Web-of-Objects (WoO)-Based Context Aware Emergency Fire Management Systems for the Internet of Things

PubMed Central

Shamszaman, Zia Ush; Ara, Safina Showkat; Chong, Ilyoung; Jeong, Youn Kwae

2014-01-01

Recent advancements in the Internet of Things (IoT) and the Web of Things (WoT) accompany a smart life where real world objects, including sensing devices, are interconnected with each other. The Web representation of smart objects empowers innovative applications and services for various domains. To accelerate this approach, Web of Objects (WoO) focuses on the implementation aspects of bringing the assorted real world objects to the Web applications. In this paper; we propose an emergency fire management system in the WoO infrastructure. Consequently, we integrate the formation and management of Virtual Objects (ViO) which are derived from real world physical objects and are virtually connected with each other into the semantic ontology model. The charm of using the semantic ontology is that it allows information reusability, extensibility and interoperability, which enable ViOs to uphold orchestration, federation, collaboration and harmonization. Our system is context aware, as it receives contextual environmental information from distributed sensors and detects emergency situations. To handle a fire emergency, we present a decision support tool for the emergency fire management team. The previous fire incident log is the basis of the decision support system. A log repository collects all the emergency fire incident logs from ViOs and stores them in a repository. PMID:24531299

Web-of-Objects (WoO)-based context aware emergency fire management systems for the Internet of Things.

PubMed

Shamszaman, Zia Ush; Ara, Safina Showkat; Chong, Ilyoung; Jeong, Youn Kwae

2014-02-13

Recent advancements in the Internet of Things (IoT) and the Web of Things (WoT) accompany a smart life where real world objects, including sensing devices, are interconnected with each other. The Web representation of smart objects empowers innovative applications and services for various domains. To accelerate this approach, Web of Objects (WoO) focuses on the implementation aspects of bringing the assorted real world objects to the Web applications. In this paper; we propose an emergency fire management system in the WoO infrastructure. Consequently, we integrate the formation and management of Virtual Objects (ViO) which are derived from real world physical objects and are virtually connected with each other into the semantic ontology model. The charm of using the semantic ontology is that it allows information reusability, extensibility and interoperability, which enable ViOs to uphold orchestration, federation, collaboration and harmonization. Our system is context aware, as it receives contextual environmental information from distributed sensors and detects emergency situations. To handle a fire emergency, we present a decision support tool for the emergency fire management team. The previous fire incident log is the basis of the decision support system. A log repository collects all the emergency fire incident logs from ViOs and stores them in a repository.

The 2017 Academic Emergency Medicine Consensus Conference: Catalyzing System Change Through Healthcare Simulation: Systems, Competency, and Outcomes.

PubMed

Bond, William F; Hui, Joshua; Fernandez, Rosemarie

2018-02-01

Over the past decade, emergency medicine (EM) took a lead role in healthcare simulation in part due to its demands for successful interprofessional and multidisciplinary collaboration, along with educational needs in a diverse array of cognitive and procedural skills. Simulation-based methodologies have the capacity to support training and research platforms that model micro-, meso-, and macrosystems of healthcare. To fully capitalize on the potential of simulation-based research to improve emergency healthcare delivery will require the application of rigorous methods from engineering, social science, and basic science disciplines. The Academic Emergency Medicine (AEM) Consensus Conference "Catalyzing System Change Through Healthcare Simulation: Systems, Competency, and Outcome" was conceived to foster discussion among experts in EM, engineering, and social sciences, focusing on key barriers and opportunities in simulation-based research. This executive summary describes the overall rationale for the conference, conference planning, and consensus-building approaches and outlines the focus of the eight breakout sessions. The consensus outcomes from each breakout session are summarized in proceedings papers published in this issue of Academic Emergency Medicine. Each paper provides an overview of methodologic and knowledge gaps in simulation research and identifies future research targets aimed at improving the safety and quality of healthcare. © 2017 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Modeling a Mathematical to Quantify the Degree of Emergency Department Crowding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y.; Pan, C.; Wen, J.

2012-12-01

The purpose of this study is to deduce a function from the admissions/discharge rate of patient flow to estimate a "Critical Point" that provides a reference for warning systems in regards to crowding in the emergency department (ED) of a hospital or medical clinic. In this study, a model of "Input-Throughput-Output" was used in our established mathematical function to evaluate the critical point. The function was defined as ∂ρ/∂t=-K×∂ρ/∂x , where ρ= number of patients per unit distance (also called density), t= time, x= distance, K= distance of patients movement per unit time. Using the average K of ED crowding, we could initiate the warning system at appropriate time and plan necessary emergency response to facilitate the patient process more smoothly. It was concluded that ED crowding can be quantified using the average value of K, and the value can be used as a reference for medical staff to give optimal emergency medical treatment to patients. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

Research Opportunities from Emerging Atmospheric Observing and Modeling Capabilities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabberdt, Walter F.; Schlatter, Thomas W.

1996-02-01

The Second Prospectus Development Team (PDT-2) of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged with identifying research opportunities that are best matched to emerging operational and experimental measurement and modeling methods. The overarching recommendation of PDT-2 is that inputs for weather forecast models can best be obtained through the use of composite observing systems together with adaptive (or targeted) observing strategies employing both in situ and remote sensing. Optimal observing systems and strategies are best determined through a three-part process: observing system simulation experiments, pilot field measurement programs, and model-assisted data sensitivity experiments. Furthermore, the mesoscale research community needs easy and timely access to the new operational and research datasets in a form that can readily be reformatted into existing software packages for analysis and display. The value of these data is diminished to the extent that they remain inaccessible.The composite observing system of the future must combine synoptic observations, routine mobile observations, and targeted observations, as the current or forecast situation dictates. High costs demand fuller exploitation of commercial aircraft, meteorological and navigation [Global Positioning System (GPS)] satellites, and Doppler radar. Single observing systems must be assessed in the context of a composite system that provides complementary information. Maintenance of the current North American rawinsonde network is critical for progress in both research-oriented and operational weather forecasting.Adaptive sampling strategies are designed to improve large-scale and regional weather prediction but they will also improve diagnosis and prediction of flash flooding, air pollution, forest fire management, and other environmental emergencies. Adaptive measurements can be made by piloted or unpiloted aircraft. Rawinsondes can be launched and satellites can be programmed to make adaptive observations at special times or in specific regions. PDT-2 specifically recommends the following forms of data gathering: a pilot field and modeling study should be designed and executed to assess the benefit of adaptive observations over the eastern Pacific for mesoscale forecasts over the contiguous United

Contrasting models of driver behaviour in emergencies using retrospective verbalisations and network analysis.

PubMed

Banks, Victoria A; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

Automated assistance in driving emergencies aims to improve the safety of our roads by avoiding or mitigating the effects of accidents. However, the behavioural implications of such systems remain unknown. This paper introduces the driver decision-making in emergencies (DDMiEs) framework to investigate how the level and type of automation may affect driver decision-making and subsequent responses to critical braking events using network analysis to interrogate retrospective verbalisations. Four DDMiE models were constructed to represent different levels of automation within the driving task and its effects on driver decision-making. Findings suggest that whilst automation does not alter the decision-making pathway (e.g. the processes between hazard detection and response remain similar), it does appear to significantly weaken the links between information-processing nodes. This reflects an unintended yet emergent property within the task network that could mean that we may not be improving safety in the way we expect. This paper contrasts models of driver decision-making in emergencies at varying levels of automation using the Southampton University Driving Simulator. Network analysis of retrospective verbalisations indicates that increasing the level of automation in driving emergencies weakens the link between information-processing nodes essential for effective decision-making.

Microphysiological Human Brain and Neural Systems-on-a-Chip: Potential Alternatives to Small Animal Models and Emerging Platforms for Drug Discovery and Personalized Medicine.

PubMed

Haring, Alexander P; Sontheimer, Harald; Johnson, Blake N

2017-06-01

Translational challenges associated with reductionist modeling approaches, as well as ethical concerns and economic implications of small animal testing, drive the need for developing microphysiological neural systems for modeling human neurological diseases, disorders, and injuries. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of microphysiological brain and neural systems-on-a-chip (NSCs) for modeling higher order trajectories in the human nervous system. Societal, economic, and national security impacts of neurological diseases, disorders, and injuries are highlighted to identify critical NSC application spaces. Hierarchical design and manufacturing of NSCs are discussed with distinction for surface- and bulk-based systems. Three broad NSC classes are identified and reviewed: microfluidic NSCs, compartmentalized NSCs, and hydrogel NSCs. Emerging areas and future directions are highlighted, including the application of 3D printing to design and manufacturing of next-generation NSCs, the use of stem cells for constructing patient-specific NSCs, and the application of human NSCs to 'personalized neurology'. Technical hurdles and remaining challenges are discussed. This review identifies the state-of-the-art design methodologies, manufacturing approaches, and performance capabilities of NSCs. This work suggests NSCs appear poised to revolutionize the modeling of human neurological diseases, disorders, and injuries.

Verification of Emergent Behaviors in Swarm-based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouff, Christopher; Vanderbilt, Amy; Hinchey, Mike; Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James

2004-01-01

The emergent properties of swarms make swarm-based missions powerful, but at the same time more difficult to design and to assure that the proper behaviors will emerge. We are currently investigating formal methods and techniques for verification and validation of swarm-based missions. The Autonomous Nano-Technology Swarm (ANTS) mission is being used as an example and case study for swarm-based missions to experiment and test current formal methods with intelligent swarms. Using the ANTS mission, we have evaluated multiple formal methods to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring swarm behavior. This paper introduces how intelligent swarm technology is being proposed for NASA missions, and gives the results of a comparison of several formal methods and approaches for specifying intelligent swarm-based systems and their effectiveness for predicting emergent behavior.

On the Interplay between Order Parameter Dynamics and System Parameter Dynamics in Human Perceptual-Cognitive-Behavioral Systems.

PubMed

Frank, T D

2015-04-01

Previous research has demonstrated that perceiving, thinking, and acting are human activities that correspond to self-organized patterns. The emergence of such patterns can be completely described in terms of the dynamics of the pattern amplitudes, which are referred to as order parameters. The patterns emerge at bifurcations points when certain system parameters internal and external to a human agent exceed critical values. At issue is how one might study the order parameter dynamics for sequences of consecutive, emergent perceptual, cognitive, or behavioral activities. In particular, these activities may in turn impact the system parameters that have led to the emergence of the activities in the first place. This interplay between order parameter dynamics and system parameter dynamics is discussed in general and formulated in mathematical terms. Previous work that has made use of this two-tiered framework of order parameter and system parameter dynamics are briefly addressed. As an application, a model for perception under functional fixedness is presented. Finally, it is argued that the phenomena that emerge in this framework and can be observed when human agents perceive, think, and act are just as likely to occur in pattern formation systems of the inanimate world. Consequently, these phenomena do not necessarily have a neurophysiological basis but should instead be understood from the perspective of the theory of self-organization.

Size does Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vespignani, Alessandro

From schools of fish and flocks of birds, to digital networks and self-organizing biopolymers, our understanding of spontaneously emergent phenomena, self-organization, and critical behavior is in large part due to complex systems science. The complex systems approach is indeed a very powerful conceptual framework to shed light on the link between the microscopic dynamical evolution of the basic elements of the system and the emergence of oscopic phenomena; often providing evidence for mathematical principles that go beyond the particulars of the individual system, thus hinting to general modeling principles. By killing the myth of the ant queen and shifting the focus on the dynamical interaction across the elements of the systems, complex systems science has ushered our way into the conceptual understanding of many phenomena at the core of major scientific and social challenges such as the emergence of consensus, social opinion dynamics, conflicts and cooperation, contagion phenomena. For many years though, these complex systems approaches to real-world problems were often suffering from being oversimplified and not grounded on actual data...

Funding emergency care: Australian style.

PubMed

Bell, Anthony; Crilly, Julia; Williams, Ged; Wylie, Kate; Toloo, Ghasem Sam; Burke, John; FitzGerald, Gerry

2014-08-01

The ongoing challenge for ED leaders is to remain abreast of system-wide changes that impact on the day-to-day management of their departments. Changes to the funding model creates another layer of complexity and this introductory paper serves as the beginning of a discussion about the way in which EDs are funded and how this can and will impact on business decisions, models of care and resource allocation within Australian EDs. Furthermore it is evident that any funding model today will mature and change with time, and moves are afoot to refine and contextualise ED funding over the medium term. This perspective seeks to provide a basis of understanding for our current and future funding arrangements in Australian EDs. © 2014 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

The von Neumann model of measurement in quantum mechanics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mello, Pier A.

2014-01-08

We describe how to obtain information on a quantum-mechanical system by coupling it to a probe and detecting some property of the latter, using a model introduced by von Neumann, which describes the interaction of the system proper with the probe in a dynamical way. We first discuss single measurements, where the system proper is coupled to one probe with arbitrary coupling strength. The goal is to obtain information on the system detecting the probe position. We find the reduced density operator of the system, and show how Lüders rule emerges as the limiting case of strong coupling. The vonmore » Neumann model is then generalized to two probes that interact successively with the system proper. Now we find information on the system by detecting the position-position and momentum-position correlations of the two probes. The so-called 'Wigner's formula' emerges in the strong-coupling limit, while 'Kirkwood's quasi-probability distribution' is found as the weak-coupling limit of the above formalism. We show that successive measurements can be used to develop a state-reconstruction scheme. Finally, we find a generalized transform of the state and the observables based on the notion of successive measurements.« less

Multi-faceted informatics system for digitising and streamlining the reablement care model.

PubMed

Bond, Raymond R; Mulvenna, Maurice D; Finlay, Dewar D; Martin, Suzanne

2015-08-01

Reablement is new paradigm to increase independence in the home amongst the ageing population. And it remains a challenge to design an optimal electronic system to streamline and integrate reablement into current healthcare infrastructure. Furthermore, given reablement requires collaboration with a range of organisations (including national healthcare institutions and community/voluntary service providers), such a system needs to be co-created with all stakeholders involved. Thus, the purpose of this study is, (1) to bring together stakeholder groups to elicit a comprehensive set of requirements for a digital reablement system, (2) to utilise emerging technologies to implement a system and a data model based on the requirements gathered and (3) to involve user groups in a usability assessment of the system. In this study we employed a mixed qualitative approach that included a series of stakeholder-involved activities. Collectively, 73 subjects were recruited to participate in an ideation event, a quasi-hackathon and a usability study. The study unveiled stakeholder-led requirements, which resulted in a novel cloud-based system that was created using emerging web technologies. The system is driven by a unique data model and includes interactive features that are necessary for streamlining the reablement care model. In summary, this system allows community based interventions (or services) to be prescribed to occupants whilst also monitoring the occupant's progress of independent living. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of 6 and 10 Year-Old Child Human Body Models in Emergency Events

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Emergency events can influence a child’s kinematics prior to a car-crash, and thus its interaction with the restraint system. Numerical Human Body Models (HBMs) can help understand the behaviour of children in emergency events. The kinematic responses of two child HBMs–MADYMO 6 and 10 year-old models–were evaluated and compared with child volunteers’ data during emergency events–braking and steering–with a focus on the forehead and sternum displacements. The response of the 6 year-old HBM was similar to the response of the 10 year-old HBM, however both models had a different response compared with the volunteers. The forward and lateral displacements were within the range of volunteer data up to approximately 0.3 s; but then, the HBMs head and sternum moved significantly downwards, while the volunteers experienced smaller displacement and tended to come back to their initial posture. Therefore, these HBMs, originally intended for crash simulations, are not too stiff and could be able to reproduce properly emergency events thanks, for instance, to postural control. PMID:28099505

Federal Emergency Management Information System (FEMIS) system administration guide, version 1.4.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arp, J.A.; Burnett, R.A.; Carter, R.J.

The Federal Emergency Management Information Systems (FEMIS) is an emergency management planning and response tool that was developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under the direction of the US Army Chemical Biological Defense Command. The FEMIS System Administration Guide provides information necessary for the system administrator to maintain the FEMIS system. The FEMIS system is designed for a single Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP) site that has multiple Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs). Each EOC has personal computers (PCs) that emergency planners and operations personnel use to do their jobs. These PCs are connected via a local areamore » network (LAN) to servers that provide EOC-wide services. Each EOC is interconnected to other EOCs via a Wide Area Network (WAN). Thus, FEMIS is an integrated software product that resides on client/server computer architecture. The main body of FEMIS software, referred to as the FEMIS Application Software, resides on the PC client(s) and is directly accessible to emergency management personnel. The remainder of the FEMIS software, referred to as the FEMIS Support Software, resides on the UNIX server. The Support Software provides the communication, data distribution, and notification functionality necessary to operate FEMIS in a networked, client/server environment. The UNIX server provides an Oracle relational database management system (RDBMS) services, ARC/INFO GIS (optional) capabilities, and basic file management services. PNNL developed utilities that reside on the server include the Notification Service, the Command Service that executes the evacuation model, and AutoRecovery. To operate FEMIS, the Application Software must have access to a site specific FEMIS emergency management database. Data that pertains to an individual EOC`s jurisdiction is stored on the EOC`s local server. Information that needs to be accessible to all EOCs is automatically distributed by the FEMIS database to the other EOCs at the site.« less

User Acceptance of Picture Archiving and Communication System in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Goodarzi, Hassan; Khatami, Seyed-Masoud; Javadzadeh, Hammidreza; Mahmoudi, Sadrollah; Khajehpour, Hojjatollah; Heidari, Soleiman; Khodaparast, Morteza; Ebrahimi, Ali; Rasouli, Hamidreza; Ghane, Mohammadreza; Faraji, Mehrdad; Hassanpour, Kasra

2016-01-01

Background Picture archiving and communication system (PACS) has allowed the medical images to be transmitted, stored, retrieved, and displayed in different locations of a hospital or health system. Using PACS in the emergency department will eventually result in improved efficiency and patient care. In spite of the abundant benefits of employing PACS, there are some challenges in implementing this technology like users’ resistance to accept the technology, which has a critical role in PACS success. Objectives In this study, we will assess and compare user acceptance of PACS in the emergency departments of three different hospitals and investigate the effect of socio-demographic factors on this acceptance. Materials and Methods A variant of technology acceptance model (TAM) has been used in order to measure the acceptance level of PACS in the emergency department of three educational hospitals in Iran. A previously used questionnaire was validated and utilized to collect the study data. A stepwise multiple regression model was used to predict factors influencing acceptance score as the dependent variable. Results Mean age of participants was 32.9 years (standard deviation [SD] = 6.08). Participants with the specialty degree got a higher acceptance score than the three other groups (Mean ± SD = 4.17 ± 0.20). Age, gender, degree of PACS usage and participant’s occupation (profession) did not influence the acceptance score. In our multiple regression model, all three variables of perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEU) and the effect of PACS (change) had a significant effect in the prediction of acceptance. The most influencing factor was change with the beta of 0.22 (P value < 0.001). Conclusion PACS is highly accepted in all three emergency departments especially among specialists. PU, PEU and change are factors influencing PACS acceptance. Our study can be used as an evidence of PACS acceptance in emergency wards. PMID:27679692

Lessons from German and American Industrial-Education Partnerships.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Theuerkauf, Walter E.; Putnam, A. R.

The search for a work force preparation model that could serve as a guide for meeting present and emerging challenges has lead to a focus on the German dual system youth apprenticeship model. In this system, the practice-oriented part is taken over by commercial enterprises and theoretical knowledge is imparted by vocational schools. The trainee…

Bridging the Gap between Physiology and Behavior: Evidence from the sSoTS Model of Human Visual Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mavritsaki, Eirini; Heinke, Dietmar; Allen, Harriet; Deco, Gustavo; Humphreys, Glyn W.

2011-01-01

We present the case for a role of biologically plausible neural network modeling in bridging the gap between physiology and behavior. We argue that spiking-level networks can allow "vertical" translation between physiological properties of neural systems and emergent "whole-system" performance--enabling psychological results to be simulated from…

Comparative analysis of three prehospital emergency medical services organizations in India and Pakistan.

PubMed

Sriram, V; Gururaj, G; Razzak, J A; Naseer, R; Hyder, A A

2016-08-01

Strengthened emergency medical services (EMS) are urgently required in South Asia to reduce needless death and disability. Several EMS models have been introduced in India and Pakistan, and research on these models can facilitate improvements to EMS in the region. Our objective was to conduct a cross-case comparative analysis of three EMS organizations in India and Pakistan - GVK EMRI, Aman Foundation and Rescue 1122 - in order to draw out similarities and differences in their models. Case study methodology was used to systematically explore the organizational models of GVK EMRI (Karnataka, India), Aman Foundation (Karachi, Pakistan), and Rescue 1122 (Punjab, Pakistan). Qualitative methods - interviews, document review and non-participant observation - were utilized, and using a process of constant comparison, data were analysed across cases according to the WHO health system 'building blocks'. Emergent themes under each health system 'building block' of service delivery, health workforce, medical products and technology, health information systems, leadership and governance, and financing were described. Cross-cutting issues not applicable to any single building block were further identified. This cross-case comparison, the first of its kind in low- and middle-income countries, highlights key innovations and lessons, and areas of further research across EMS organizations in India, Pakistan and other resource-poor settings. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Coloured Petrinet Based Healthcare Infrastructure Interdependency Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nukavarapu, Nivedita; Durbha, Surya

2016-06-01

The Healthcare Critical Infrastructure (HCI) protects all sectors of the society from hazards such as terrorism, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters. HCI plays a significant role in response and recovery across all other sectors in the event of a natural or manmade disaster. However, for its continuity of operations and service delivery HCI is dependent on other interdependent Critical Infrastructures (CI) such as Communications, Electric Supply, Emergency Services, Transportation Systems, and Water Supply System. During a mass casualty due to disasters such as floods, a major challenge that arises for the HCI is to respond to the crisis in a timely manner in an uncertain and variable environment. To address this issue the HCI should be disaster prepared, by fully understanding the complexities and interdependencies that exist in a hospital, emergency department or emergency response event. Modelling and simulation of a disaster scenario with these complexities would help in training and providing an opportunity for all the stakeholders to work together in a coordinated response to a disaster. The paper would present interdependencies related to HCI based on Stochastic Coloured Petri Nets (SCPN) modelling and simulation approach, given a flood scenario as the disaster which would disrupt the infrastructure nodes. The entire model would be integrated with Geographic information based decision support system to visualize the dynamic behaviour of the interdependency of the Healthcare and related CI network in a geographically based environment.

Emergency response to an anthrax attack

PubMed Central

Wein, Lawrence M.; Craft, David L.; Kaplan, Edward H.

2003-01-01

We developed a mathematical model to compare various emergency responses in the event of an airborne anthrax attack. The system consists of an atmospheric dispersion model, an age-dependent dose–response model, a disease progression model, and a set of spatially distributed two-stage queueing systems consisting of antibiotic distribution and hospital care. Our results underscore the need for the extremely aggressive and timely use of oral antibiotics by all asymptomatics in the exposure region, distributed either preattack or by nonprofessionals postattack, and the creation of surge capacity for supportive hospital care via expanded training of nonemergency care workers at the local level and the use of federal and military resources and nationwide medical volunteers. The use of prioritization (based on disease stage and/or age) at both queues, and the development and deployment of modestly rapid and sensitive biosensors, while helpful, produce only second-order improvements. PMID:12651951

Hydrothermal systems as environments for the emergence of life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shock, E. L.

1996-01-01

Analysis of the chemical disequilibrium provided by the mixing of hydrothermal fluids and seawater in present-day systems indicates that organic synthesis from CO2 or carbonic acid is thermodynamically favoured in the conditions in which hyperthermophilic microorganisms are known to live. These organisms lower the Gibbs free energy of the chemical mixture by synthesizing many of the components of their cells. Primary productivity is enormous in hydrothermal systems because it depends only on catalysis of thermodynamically favourable, exergonic reactions. It follows that hydrothermal systems may be the most favourable environments for life on Earth. This fact makes hydrothermal systems logical candidates for the location of the emergence of life, a speculation that is supported by genetic evidence that modern hyperthermophilic organisms are closer to a common ancestor than any other forms of life. The presence of hydrothermal systems on the early Earth would correspond to the presence of liquid water. Evidence that hydrothermal systems existed early in the history of Mars raises the possibility that life may have emerged on Mars as well. Redox reactions between water and rock establish the potential for organic synthesis in and around hydrothermal systems. Therefore, the single most important parameter for modelling the geochemical emergence of life on the early Earth or Mars is the composition of the rock which hosts the hydrothermal system.

Bring It On, Complexity! Present and Future of Self-Organising Middle-Out Abstraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammen, Sebastian Von; Steghöfer, Jan-Philipp

The following sections are included: * The Great Complexity Challenge * Self-Organising Middle-Out Abstraction * Optimising Graphics, Physics and Artificial Intelligence * Emergence and Hierarchies in a Natural System * The Technical Concept of SOMO * Observation of interactions * Interaction pattern recognition and behavioural abstraction * Creating and adjusting hierarchies * Confidence measures * Execution model * Learning SOMO: parameters, knowledge propagation, and procreation * Current Implementations * Awareness Beyond Virtuality * Integration and emergence * Model inference * SOMO net * SOMO after me * The Future of SOMO

Drug Prices and Emergency Department Mentions for Cocaine and Heroin

PubMed Central

Caulkins, Jonathan P.

2001-01-01

Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996). Results. A simple model in which emergency department mentions are driven by only prices explains more than 95% of the variation in emergency department mentions. Conclusions. Fluctuations in prices are an important determinant of adverse health outcomes associated with drugs. PMID:11527779

Emergence of universal scaling in financial markets from mean-field dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikram, S. V.; Sinha, Sitabhra

2011-01-01

Collective phenomena with universal properties have been observed in many complex systems with a large number of components. Here we present a microscopic model of the emergence of scaling behavior in such systems, where the interaction dynamics between individual components is mediated by a global variable making the mean-field description exact. Using the example of financial markets, we show that asset price can be such a global variable with the critical role of coordinating the actions of agents who are otherwise independent. The resulting model accurately reproduces empirical properties such as the universal scaling of the price fluctuation and volume distributions, long-range correlations in volatility, and multiscaling.

Spacetime emergence of the robertson-walker universe from a matrix model.

PubMed

Erdmenger, Johanna; Meyer, René; Park, Jeong-Hyuck

2007-06-29

Using a novel, string theory-inspired formalism based on a Hamiltonian constraint, we obtain a conformal mechanical system for the spatially flat four-dimensional Robertson-Walker Universe. Depending on parameter choices, this system describes either a relativistic particle in the Robertson-Walker background or metric fluctuations of the Robertson-Walker geometry. Moreover, we derive a tree-level M theory matrix model in this time-dependent background. Imposing the Hamiltonian constraint forces the spacetime geometry to be fuzzy near the big bang, while the classical Robertson-Walker geometry emerges as the Universe expands. From our approach, we also derive the temperature of the Universe interpolating between the radiation and matter dominated eras.

Hydrodynamic synchronization of flagella on the surface of the colonial alga Volvox carteri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brumley, Douglas; Polin, Marco; Goldstein, Raymond; Pedley, Timothy

2012-11-01

Whether on the surface of unicellular ciliates or in the respiratory epithelium, groups of eukaryotic cilia and flagella are capable of coordinating their beating over large scales. The mechanism responsible for the emergence of these metachronal waves is still unclear, mostly because finding an experimental system in which the beating filaments can be followed individually is challenging. We propose the multicellular green alga Volvox carteri as an ideal model system to study metachronal coordination, and report the existence of robust metachronal waves on its surface. Inspired by flagellar tip trajectories of Volvox somatic cells, we model a flagellum using a sphere of radius a elastically bound to a circular orbit of radius r0, perpendicular to a no-slip plane. This elastohydrodynamic model of weakly-coupled self-sustained oscillators can be recast in terms of interacting phase oscillators, offering an intuitive understanding of the mechanism driving the emergence of coordination. Our results confirm that elasticity is fundamental to guarantee fast and robust synchronization, and that sufficiently compliant trajectories lead to the emergence of metachronal waves in a manner essentially independent of boundary conditions.

Emergent symmetries in the canonical tensor model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obster, Dennis; Sasakura, Naoki

2018-04-01

The canonical tensor model (CTM) is a tensor model proposing a classically and quantum mechanically consistent description of gravity, formulated as a first-class constraint system with structural similarities to the ADM formalism of general relativity. The classical CTM produces a general relativistic system in a formal continuum limit, the emergence of which should be explained by the quantum CTM. In this paper we study the symmetry properties of a wave function that exactly solves the quantum constraints of the CTM. We have found that it has strong peaks at configurations invariant under some Lie groups, as predicted by a mechanism described in our previous paper. A surprising result is the preference for configurations invariant not only under Lie groups with positive definite signature, but also with Lorentzian signature. Such symmetries could characterize the global structures of spacetimes, and our results are encouraging towards showing spacetime emergence in the CTM. To verify the asymptotic convergence of the wave function we have also analyzed the asymptotic behavior, which for the most part seems to be well under control.

Generating self-organizing collective behavior using separation dynamics from experimental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieck Kattas, Graciano; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael

2012-09-01

Mathematical models for systems of interacting agents using simple local rules have been proposed and shown to exhibit emergent swarming behavior. Most of these models are constructed by intuition or manual observations of real phenomena, and later tuned or verified to simulate desired dynamics. In contrast to this approach, we propose using a model that attempts to follow an averaged rule of the essential distance-dependent collective behavior of real pigeon flocks, which was abstracted from experimental data. By using a simple model to follow the behavioral tendencies of real data, we show that our model can exhibit a wide range of emergent self-organizing dynamics such as flocking, pattern formation, and counter-rotating vortices.

Generating self-organizing collective behavior using separation dynamics from experimental data.

PubMed

Dieck Kattas, Graciano; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael

2012-09-01

Mathematical models for systems of interacting agents using simple local rules have been proposed and shown to exhibit emergent swarming behavior. Most of these models are constructed by intuition or manual observations of real phenomena, and later tuned or verified to simulate desired dynamics. In contrast to this approach, we propose using a model that attempts to follow an averaged rule of the essential distance-dependent collective behavior of real pigeon flocks, which was abstracted from experimental data. By using a simple model to follow the behavioral tendencies of real data, we show that our model can exhibit a wide range of emergent self-organizing dynamics such as flocking, pattern formation, and counter-rotating vortices.

Material characterization and modeling with shear ography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Workman, Gary L.; Callahan, Virginia

1993-01-01

Shearography has emerged as a useful technique for nondestructible evaluation and materials characterization of aerospace materials. A suitable candidate for the technique is to determine the response of debonds on foam-metal interfaces such as the TPS system on the External Tank. The main thrust is to develop a model which allows valid interpretation of shearographic information on TPS type systems. Confirmation of the model with shearographic data will be performed.

Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior.

Properties of a Formal Method to Model Emergence in Swarm-Based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouff, Christopher; Vanderbilt, Amy; Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James; Hinchey, Mike

2004-01-01

Future space missions will require cooperation between multiple satellites and/or rovers. Developers are proposing intelligent autonomous swarms for these missions, but swarm-based systems are difficult or impossible to test with current techniques. This viewgraph presentation examines the use of formal methods in testing swarm-based systems. The potential usefulness of formal methods in modeling the ANTS asteroid encounter mission is also examined.

Development of emergency medicine as academic and distinct clinical discipline in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

PubMed

Salihefendic, Nizama; Zildzic, Muharem; Masic, Izet; Hadziahmetovic, Zoran; Vasic, Dusko

2011-01-01

Emergency medicine is a new academic discipline, as well as a recent independent clinical specialization with the specific principles of practice, education and research. It is also a very important segment of the overall health care and health system. Emergency medicine as a distinct specialty was introduced in the U.S. in 1970. Ten years later and relatively quickly emergency medicine was introduced in the health system in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a specialty with a special education program for specialist and a final exam. Compare the development of emergency medicine in Bosnia and Herzegovina with the trends of development of this discipline in the world as a specialization and an academic discipline. Identify specific problems and possible solutions and learn lessons from other countries. Reviewed are the literature data on the development of emergency medicine in the world, programs of undergraduate and postgraduate teaching, the organizational scheme of emergency centers and residency. This is then compared with data of the current status of emergency medicine as an academic discipline and a recognized specialization, in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are substantial differences in the development of emergency medicine in the United States, European Union and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Although Bosnia and Herzegovina relatively early recognized specialty of emergency medicine in academia, it failed to mach the academic progress with the practical implementation. A&E departments in the Community Health Centers failed to meet the desired objectives even though they were led by specialists in emergency medicine. The main reason being the lack of space and equipment as well as staff needed to meet set standards of good clinical practice, education and research. Furthermore the Curriculum of undergraduate education and specialization does not match modern concept of educational programs that meet the principles set out in emergency medicine and learning through practice. The Development of emergency medicine as a separate specialization and independent academic discipline has had different way and pace of development, and there is no ideal model that can be applied in all countries. However experiences from countries with well developed emergency medicine, suggest that the model of the simultaneous development of emergency medicine as a distinct academic discipline on independent recognized residencies with a strong national association is the best way for the formation of an efficient health system. The establishment of Emergency centers--departments for emergency medicine at university and cantonal hospitals, introduction of emergency medicine as an academic discipline, implementation of specific post-graduate teaching and continuing medical education through appropriate courses, as well as academic development program for the teaching staff is the most important element of future development of this discipline. It would also contribute to it achieving the appropriate status in both the academic institutions and in practice within the health system of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

SCALING AN URBAN EMERGENCY EVACUATION FRAMEWORK: CHALLENGES AND PRACTICES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karthik, Rajasekar; Lu, Wei

2014-01-01

Critical infrastructure disruption, caused by severe weather events, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc., has significant impacts on urban transportation systems. We built a computational framework to simulate urban transportation systems under critical infrastructure disruption in order to aid real-time emergency evacuation. This framework will use large scale datasets to provide a scalable tool for emergency planning and management. Our framework, World-Wide Emergency Evacuation (WWEE), integrates population distribution and urban infrastructure networks to model travel demand in emergency situations at global level. Also, a computational model of agent-based traffic simulation is used to provide an optimal evacuation plan for traffic operationmore » purpose [1]. In addition, our framework provides a web-based high resolution visualization tool for emergency evacuation modelers and practitioners. We have successfully tested our framework with scenarios in both United States (Alexandria, VA) and Europe (Berlin, Germany) [2]. However, there are still some major drawbacks for scaling this framework to handle big data workloads in real time. On our back-end, lack of proper infrastructure limits us in ability to process large amounts of data, run the simulation efficiently and quickly, and provide fast retrieval and serving of data. On the front-end, the visualization performance of microscopic evacuation results is still not efficient enough due to high volume data communication between server and client. We are addressing these drawbacks by using cloud computing and next-generation web technologies, namely Node.js, NoSQL, WebGL, Open Layers 3 and HTML5 technologies. We will describe briefly about each one and how we are using and leveraging these technologies to provide an efficient tool for emergency management organizations. Our early experimentation demonstrates that using above technologies is a promising approach to build a scalable and high performance urban emergency evacuation framework that can improve traffic mobility and safety under critical infrastructure disruption in today s socially connected world.« less

Non-Markovianity hinders Quantum Darwinism.

PubMed

Galve, Fernando; Zambrini, Roberta; Maniscalco, Sabrina

2016-01-20

We investigate Quantum Darwinism and the emergence of a classical world from the quantum one in connection with the spectral properties of the environment. We use a microscopic model of quantum environment in which, by changing a simple system parameter, we can modify the information back flow from environment into the system, and therefore its non-Markovian character. We show that the presence of memory effects hinders the emergence of classical objective reality, linking these two apparently unrelated concepts via a unique dynamical feature related to decoherence factors.

Non-Markovianity hinders Quantum Darwinism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galve, Fernando; Zambrini, Roberta; Maniscalco, Sabrina

2016-01-01

We investigate Quantum Darwinism and the emergence of a classical world from the quantum one in connection with the spectral properties of the environment. We use a microscopic model of quantum environment in which, by changing a simple system parameter, we can modify the information back flow from environment into the system, and therefore its non-Markovian character. We show that the presence of memory effects hinders the emergence of classical objective reality, linking these two apparently unrelated concepts via a unique dynamical feature related to decoherence factors.

Non-Markovianity hinders Quantum Darwinism

PubMed Central

Galve, Fernando; Zambrini, Roberta; Maniscalco, Sabrina

2016-01-01

We investigate Quantum Darwinism and the emergence of a classical world from the quantum one in connection with the spectral properties of the environment. We use a microscopic model of quantum environment in which, by changing a simple system parameter, we can modify the information back flow from environment into the system, and therefore its non-Markovian character. We show that the presence of memory effects hinders the emergence of classical objective reality, linking these two apparently unrelated concepts via a unique dynamical feature related to decoherence factors. PMID:26786857

Acute Gastrointestinal Illness Risks in North Carolina Community Water Systems: A Methodological Comparison.

PubMed

DeFelice, Nicholas B; Johnston, Jill E; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2015-08-18

The magnitude and spatial variability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) cases attributable to microbial contamination of U.S. community drinking water systems are not well characterized. We compared three approaches (drinking water attributable risk, quantitative microbial risk assessment, and population intervention model) to estimate the annual number of emergency department visits for AGI attributable to microorganisms in North Carolina community water systems. All three methods used 2007-2013 water monitoring and emergency department data obtained from state agencies. The drinking water attributable risk method, which was the basis for previous U.S. Environmental Protection Agency national risk assessments, estimated that 7.9% of annual emergency department visits for AGI are attributable to microbial contamination of community water systems. However, the other methods' estimates were more than 2 orders of magnitude lower, each attributing 0.047% of annual emergency department visits for AGI to community water system contamination. The differences in results between the drinking water attributable risk method, which has been the main basis for previous national risk estimates, and the other two approaches highlight the need to improve methods for estimating endemic waterborne disease risks, in order to prioritize investments to improve community drinking water systems.

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyner, James J., Sr.

2015-01-01

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Emergency Department Telepsychiatry Service Model for a Rural Regional Health System: The First Steps.

PubMed

Meyer, James D; McKean, Alastair J S; Blegen, Rebecca N; Demaerschalk, Bart M

2018-05-09

Emergency departments (EDs) have recognized an increasing number of patients presenting with mental health (MH) concerns. This trend imposes greater demands upon EDs already operating at capacity. Many ED providers do not feel they are optimally prepared to provide the necessary MH care. One consideration in response to this dilemma is to use advanced telemedicine technology for psychiatric consultation. We examined a rural- and community-based health system operating 21 EDs, none of which has direct access to psychiatric consultation. Dedicated beds to MH range from zero (in EDs with only 3 beds) to 6 (in an ED with 38 beds). We conducted a needs assessment of this health system. This included a survey of emergency room providers with a 67% response rate and site visits to directly observe patient flow and communication with ED staff. A visioning workshop provided input from ED staff. Data were also obtained, which reflected ED admissions for the year 2015. The data provide a summary of provider concerns, a summary of MH presentations and diagnosis, and age groupings. The data also provide a time when most MH concerns present to the ED. Based upon these results, a proposed model for delivering comprehensive regional emergency telepsychiatry and behavioral health services is proposed. Emergency telepsychiatry services may be a tenable solution for addressing the shortage of psychiatric consultation to EDs in light of increasing demand for MH treatment in the ED.

Learning Generation: Fostering Innovation with Tomorrow's Teachers and Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aust, Ronald; Newberry, Brian; O'Brien, Joseph; Thomas, Jennifer

2005-01-01

We discuss the context, conception, implementation, and research used to refine and evaluate a systemic model for fostering technology integration in teacher education. The Learning Generation model identifies conditions where innovations for using technology emerge in small group dialogues. The model uses a multifaceted implementation with…

THE EMERGENCE OF NUMERICAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years the U.S. and other nations have begun programs for short-term local through regional air quality forecasting based upon numerical three-dimensional air quality grid models. These numerical air quality forecast (NAQF) models and systems have been developed and test...

THE EMERGENCE OF NUMERICAL AIR QUALITY FORCASTING MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years the U.S. and other nations have begun programs for short-term local through regional air quality forecasting based upon numerical three-dimensional air quality grid models. These numerical air quality forecast (NAQF) models and systems have been developed and test...

Heterogeneity and Self-Organization of Complex Systems Through an Application to Financial Market with Multiagent Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, Iris; Cotsaftis, Michel; Bertelle, Cyrille

2017-12-01

Multiagent systems (MAS) provide a useful tool for exploring the complex dynamics and behavior of financial markets and now MAS approach has been widely implemented and documented in the empirical literature. This paper introduces the implementation of an innovative multi-scale mathematical model for a computational agent-based financial market. The paper develops a method to quantify the degree of self-organization which emerges in the system and shows that the capacity of self-organization is maximized when the agent behaviors are heterogeneous. Numerical results are presented and analyzed, showing how the global market behavior emerges from specific individual behavior interactions.

Reversing the irreversible: From limit cycles to emergent time symmetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortês, Marina; Smolin, Lee

2018-01-01

In 1979 Penrose hypothesized that the arrows of time are explained by the hypothesis that the fundamental laws are time irreversible [R. Penrose, in General Relativity: An Einstein Centenary Survey (1979)]. That is, our reversible laws, such as the standard model and general relativity are effective, and emerge from an underlying fundamental theory which is time irreversible. In [M. Cortês and L. Smolin, Phys. Rev. D 90, 084007 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevD.90.084007; 90, 044035 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevD.90.044035; 93, 084039 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevD.93.084039] we put forward a research program aiming at realizing just this. The aim is to find a fundamental description of physics above the Planck scale, based on irreversible laws, from which will emerge the apparently reversible dynamics we observe on intermediate scales. Here we continue that program and note that a class of discrete dynamical systems are known to exhibit this very property: they have an underlying discrete irreversible evolution, but in the long term exhibit the properties of a time reversible system, in the form of limit cycles. We connect this to our original model proposal in [M. Cortês and L. Smolin, Phys. Rev. D 90, 084007 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevD.90.084007], and show that the behaviors obtained there can be explained in terms of the same phenomenon: the attraction of the system to a basin of limit cycles, where the dynamics appears to be time reversible. Further than that, we show that our original models exhibit the very same feature: the emergence of quasiparticle excitations obtained in the earlier work in the space-time description is an expression of the system's convergence to limit cycles when seen in the causal set description.

Emergency residential care settings: A model for service assessment and design.

PubMed

Graça, João; Calheiros, Maria Manuela; Patrício, Joana Nunes; Magalhães, Eunice Vieira

2018-02-01

There have been calls for uncovering the "black box" of residential care services, with a particular need for research focusing on emergency care settings for children and youth in danger. In fact, the strikingly scant empirical attention that these settings have received so far contrasts with the role that they often play as gateway into the child welfare system. To answer these calls, this work presents and tests a framework for assessing a service model in residential emergency care. It comprises seven studies which address a set of different focal areas (e.g., service logic model; care experiences), informants (e.g., case records; staff; children/youth), and service components (e.g., case assessment/evaluation; intervention; placement/referral). Drawing on this process-consultation approach, the work proposes a set of key challenges for emergency residential care in terms of service improvement and development, and calls for further research targeting more care units and different types of residential care services. These findings offer a contribution to inform evidence-based practice and policy in service models of residential care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Verification of voltage/frequency requirement for emergency diesel generator in nuclear power plant using dynamic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hur, Jin-Suk; Roh, Myung-Sub

2014-02-01

One major cause of the plant shutdown is the loss of electrical power. The study is to comprehend the coping action against station blackout including emergency diesel generator, sequential loading of safety system and to ensure that the emergency diesel generator should meet requirements, especially voltage and frequency criteria using modeling tool. This paper also considered the change of the sequencing time and load capacity only for finding electrical design margin. However, the revision of load list must be verified with safety analysis. From this study, it is discovered that new load calculation is a key factor in EDG localization and in-house capability increase.

Evaluating the APEX model for simulating streamflow and water quality on ten agricultural watersheds in the U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulation models are increasingly used to assess water quality constituent losses from agricultural systems. Mis-use often gives irrelevant or erroneous answers. The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model is emerging as one of the premier modeling tools for fields, farms, and agr...

A Proposed Systems Model for Socializing the Graduate Writer

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, David R.

2018-01-01

Although researchers chorus the need to support graduate students toward higher levels of writing proficiency, their findings lack a holistic model for doing so. A model emerges upon scrutiny of the factors that have been implicated in supporting writing proficiency. In the proposed model, a socialization theory fits as a proximal process into the…

Emergent quasicrystals in strongly correlated systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagi, Eran; Nussinov, Zohar

2016-07-01

Commensurability is of paramount importance in numerous strongly interacting electronic systems. In the fractional quantum Hall effect, a rich cascade of increasingly narrow plateaux appear at larger denominator filling fractions. Rich commensurate structures also emerge, at certain filling fractions, in high temperature superconductors and other electronic systems. A natural question concerns the character of these and other electronic systems at irrational filling fractions. Here we demonstrate that quasicrystalline structures naturally emerge in these situations, and trigger behaviors not typically expected of periodic systems. We first show that irrationally filled quantum Hall systems cross over into quasiperiodically ordered configuration in the thin-torus limit. Using known properties of quasicrystals, we argue that these states are unstable against the effects of disorder, in agreement with the existence of quantum Hall plateaux. We then study analogous physical situations in a system of cold Rydberg atoms placed on an optical lattice. Such an experimental setup is generally disorder free, and can therefore be used to detect the emergent quasicrystals we predict. We discuss similar situations in the Falicov-Kimball model, where known exact results can be used to establish quasicrystalline structures in one and two dimensions. We briefly speculate on possible relations between our theoretical findings and the existence of glassy dynamics and other features of strongly correlated electronic systems.

75 FR 75532 - Shipping Coordinating Committee; Notice of Committee Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-03

...; --Validation of model training courses; --Unlawful practices associated with certificates of competency... Recommendations for entering enclosed spaces aboard ships; --Development of model procedures for executing shipboard emergency measures; --Development of training standards for recovery systems; --Development of...

Time series modelling and forecasting of emergency department overcrowding.

PubMed

Kadri, Farid; Harrou, Fouzi; Chaabane, Sondès; Tahon, Christian

2014-09-01

Efficient management of patient flow (demand) in emergency departments (EDs) has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations. Today, more and more attention is being paid to hospital management systems to optimally manage patient flow and to improve management strategies, efficiency and safety in such establishments. To this end, EDs require significant human and material resources, but unfortunately these are limited. Within such a framework, the ability to accurately forecast demand in emergency departments has considerable implications for hospitals to improve resource allocation and strategic planning. The aim of this study was to develop models for forecasting daily attendances at the hospital emergency department in Lille, France. The study demonstrates how time-series analysis can be used to forecast, at least in the short term, demand for emergency services in a hospital emergency department. The forecasts were based on daily patient attendances at the paediatric emergency department in Lille regional hospital centre, France, from January 2012 to December 2012. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was applied separately to each of the two GEMSA categories and total patient attendances. Time-series analysis was shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for forecasting emergency department demand.

Evaluating the success of an emergency response medical information system.

PubMed

Petter, Stacie; Fruhling, Ann

2011-07-01

STATPack™ is an information system used to aid in the diagnosis of pathogens in hospitals and state public health laboratories. STATPack™ is used as a communication and telemedicine diagnosis tool during emergencies. This paper explores the success of this emergency response medical information system (ERMIS) using a well-known framework of information systems success developed by DeLone and McLean. Using an online survey, the entire population of STATPack™ users evaluated the success of the information system by considering system quality, information quality, system use, intention to use, user satisfaction, individual impact, and organizational impact. The results indicate that the overall quality of this ERMIS (i.e., system quality, information quality, and service quality) has a positive impact on both user satisfaction and intention to use the system. However, given the nature of ERMIS, overall quality does not necessarily predict use of the system. Moreover, the user's satisfaction with the information system positively affected the intention to use the system. User satisfaction, intention to use, and system use had a positive influence on the system's impact on the individual. Finally, the organizational impacts of the system were positively influenced by use of the system and the system's individual impact on the user. The results of the study demonstrate how to evaluate the success of an ERMIS as well as introduce potential changes in how one applies the DeLone and McLean success model in an emergency response medical information system context. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perspectives of Young Emerging Adults with Serious Mental Health Conditions on Vocational Peer Mentors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klodnick, Vanessa V.; Sabella, Kathryn; Brenner, Christopher J.; Krzos, Izabela M.; Ellison, Marsha L.; Kaiser, Susan M.; Davis, Maryann; Fagan, Marc A.

2015-01-01

For early emerging adults with serious mental health conditions, vocational services with peer mentors are a promising adaptation of adult system evidence-based practices. Peer mentors were added to the Individual Placement and Support model of supported employment for 17- to 20-year-olds receiving residential and psychiatric care. To explore the…

A Hybrid Satellite-Terrestrial Approach to Aeronautical Communication Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerczewski, Robert J.; Chomos, Gerald J.; Griner, James H.; Mainger, Steven W.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Kachmar, Brian A.

2000-01-01

Rapid growth in air travel has been projected to continue for the foreseeable future. To maintain a safe and efficient national and global aviation system, significant advances in communications systems supporting aviation are required. Satellites will increasingly play a critical role in the aeronautical communications network. At the same time, current ground-based communications links, primarily very high frequency (VHF), will continue to be employed due to cost advantages and legacy issues. Hence a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network, or group of networks, will emerge. The increased complexity of future aeronautical communications networks dictates that system-level modeling be employed to obtain an optimal system fulfilling a majority of user needs. The NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating the current and potential future state of aeronautical communications, and is developing a simulation and modeling program to research future communications architectures for national and global aeronautical needs. This paper describes the primary requirements, the current infrastructure, and emerging trends of aeronautical communications, including a growing role for satellite communications. The need for a hybrid communications system architecture approach including both satellite and ground-based communications links is explained. Future aeronautical communication network topologies and key issues in simulation and modeling of future aeronautical communications systems are described.

Geography, Not Health System Affiliations, Determines Patients' Revisits to the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Rising, Kristin L; Karp, David N; Powell, Rhea E; Victor, Timothy W; Carr, Brendan G

2018-04-01

To determine how frequently patients revisit the emergency department after an initial encounter, and to describe revisit capture rates for the same hospital, health system, and geographic region. Florida state data from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2011, from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. This is a retrospective cohort study of emergency department return visits among Florida adults over an 18-month period. We evaluated pairs of index and 30-day return emergency department visits and compared capture rates for hospital, health system, and geographic units. Data were obtained from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project and the American Hospital Association Annual Survey Database. Among 9,416,212 emergency department visits, 22.6 percent (2,124,441) were associated with a 30-day return. Seventy percent (1,477,772) of 30-day returns occurred to the same hospital. The 30-day return capture rates were highest within the same geographic area: county-level capture at 92 percent (IQR=86-96 percent) versus health system capture at 75 percent (IQR = 68-81 percent). Acute care utilization patterns are often independent of health system boundaries. Current population-based health care models that attribute patients to a single provider or health system may be strengthened by considering geographic patterns of acute care utilization. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Stent for Life Initiative: leading example in building STEMI systems of care in emerging countries.

PubMed

Kaifoszova, Zuzana; Kala, Petr; Alexander, Thomas; Zhang, Yan; Huo, Yong; Snyders, Adriaan; Delport, Rhena; Alcocer-Gamba, Marco Antonio; Gavidia, Leslie Marisol Lugo

2014-08-01

This paper describes the opportunities and challenges in building ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI) systems of care in Stent for Life affiliated and collaborating so-called emerging countries, namely India, China, South Africa and Mexico, where CAD mortality is increasing and becoming a significant healthcare problem. The Stent for Life model supports the implementation of ESC STEMI Guidelines in Europe and endeavours to impact on morbidity and mortality by improving services and developing regional STEMI systems of care, whereby STEMI patients' timely access to a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is assured. In India, the STEMI India model incorporates a dual approach of combining PPCI with a pharmacoinvasive strategy of reperfusion. The architecture of the system is based on a hub and spoke model with each unit called a STEMI cluster. The project is driven by a private non-profit organisation. In China, the STEMI PCI programme is led by the Chinese College of Cardiovascular Physicians and supported by the national government. Although primary PCI is performed nationwide, a thrombolytic treatment strategy is still the first option in many rural areas because of logistic considerations. Establishing local STEMI transfer networks and then implementing a pharmacoinvasive strategy of reperfusion are being considered and promoted currently. In South Africa, the pharmacoinvasive approach currently dominates as STEMI treatment option in many areas. A pilot study shows that low symptom awareness leads to long patient delays. The education of all role players, from patients to healthcare professionals and including institutions and governmental structures, is needed to achieve prompt diagnosis and treatment. In Mexico, improving the treatment of STEMI requires considering myocardial infarction to be an emergency that must be treated by an entire system and not just by a particular service. Patients need to receive quick treatment from clinical and interventional cardiologists, and the emergency medical system (EMS) must understand the importance of early reperfusion therapy when appropriate. Mexican health authorities have used registries as their main strategy for improving the use of health resources for ACS patients. In general, building regional STEMI systems of care and an EMS system infrastructure are critical success factors in the stepwise development of STEMI systems of care at a national level in emerging countries as they are in Europe. An in-depth understanding of healthcare system-level barriers to timely and appropriate reperfusion therapy facilitates the development of more effective strategies for improving the quality of STEMI care in each region and country.

Dual Neural Network Model for the Evolution of Speech and Language.

PubMed

Hage, Steffen R; Nieder, Andreas

2016-12-01

Explaining the evolution of speech and language poses one of the biggest challenges in biology. We propose a dual network model that posits a volitional articulatory motor network (VAMN) originating in the prefrontal cortex (PFC; including Broca's area) that cognitively controls vocal output of a phylogenetically conserved primary vocal motor network (PVMN) situated in subcortical structures. By comparing the connections between these two systems in human and nonhuman primate brains, we identify crucial biological preadaptations in monkeys for the emergence of a language system in humans. This model of language evolution explains the exclusiveness of non-verbal communication sounds (e.g., cries) in infants with an immature PFC, as well as the observed emergence of non-linguistic vocalizations in adults after frontal lobe pathologies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emerging technologies to support independent living of older adults at risk.

PubMed

Hanson, Gregory J; Takahashi, Paul Y; Pecina, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

The aging of the population is expected to place an unprecedented strain on health care systems over the next two decades and beyond. Emerging electronic monitoring technologies provide opportunities to learn about the aging process, age-related diseases, and contribute to new, cost effective care models that preserve independence at home for older adults at risk. The goals of this article are to familiarize the reader with emerging technologies and potential applications to older adults' at-risk, review the current literature about the clinical and economic outcomes of emerging technologies, and to outline future directions and challenges.

Emerging Infectious Diseases in Free-Ranging Wildlife–Australian Zoo Based Wildlife Hospitals Contribute to National Surveillance

PubMed Central

Cox-Witton, Keren; Reiss, Andrea; Woods, Rupert; Grillo, Victoria; Baker, Rupert T.; Blyde, David J.; Boardman, Wayne; Cutter, Stephen; Lacasse, Claude; McCracken, Helen; Pyne, Michael; Smith, Ian; Vitali, Simone; Vogelnest, Larry; Wedd, Dion; Phillips, Martin; Bunn, Chris; Post, Lyndel

2014-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly originating from wildlife. Many of these diseases have significant impacts on human health, domestic animal health, and biodiversity. Surveillance is the key to early detection of emerging diseases. A zoo based wildlife disease surveillance program developed in Australia incorporates disease information from free-ranging wildlife into the existing national wildlife health information system. This program uses a collaborative approach and provides a strong model for a disease surveillance program for free-ranging wildlife that enhances the national capacity for early detection of emerging diseases. PMID:24787430

State of emergency medicine in Rwanda 2015: an innovative trainee and trainer model.

PubMed

Mbanjumucyo, Gabin; DeVos, Elizabeth; Pulfrey, Simon; Epino, Henry M

2015-01-01

The 1994 Rwandan war and genocide left more than 1 million people dead; millions displaced; and the country's economic, social, and health infrastructure destroyed. Despite remaining one of the poorest countries in the world, Rwanda has made remarkable gains in health, social, and economic development over the last 20 years, but modern emergency care has been slow to progress. Rwanda has recently established the Human Resources for Health program to rapidly build capacity in multiple sectors of its healthcare delivery system, including emergency medicine. This project involves multiple medical and surgical residencies, nursing programs, allied health professional trainings, and hospital administrative support. A real strength of the program is that trainers work with international faculty at Rwanda's referral hospital, but also as emergency medicine specialty trainers when returning to their respective district hospitals. Rwanda's first emergency medicine trainees are playing a unique and important role in the implementation of emergency care systems and education in the country's district hospitals. While there has been early vital progress in building emergency medicine's foundations in Rwanda, there remains much work to be done. This will be accomplished with careful planning and strong commitment from the country's healthcare and emergency medicine leaders.

Better trauma care. How Maryland does it.

PubMed

Wish, John R; Long, William B; Edlich, Richard F

2005-01-01

In March, 1970, the Maryland State Police, in cooperation with the University of Maryland, started the first statewide airborne transportation system. It was modeled after the army's success in Korea and Vietnam, where battlefield injuries were flown to front-line MASH units. The world's premier statewide medical aviation division was made possible through a cooperative effort between the Maryland State Police Aviation Division and Dr. R Adams Cowley at the University of Maryland Hospital as a public service to the citizens of the state. The Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems (MIEMSS) has five components: (1) aircraft, (2) state troopers, (3) system communications (SYSCOM) center, (4) ambulance and fire emergency rescue, and (5) Level I adult and pediatric trauma centers and a regional burn center. The Maryland State Police Aviation Division now has 12 Aerospace Dauphin AS365N helicopters that operate out of eight fixed points throughout the state. Each helicopter has a two-person crew that consists of a pilot and a paramedic. Since 1993, the overall coordination of emergency medical services (EMS) has been under the purview of MIEMSS, an independent executive-level state agency that is governed by an appointed board and advisory council. To ensure stable funding for Maryland's world renowned emergency medical services (EMS) system, including med-evac helicopters, ambulances, fire equipment, rescue squads, and trauma units, a "surcharge" of $13.50 per year is collected with the automobile registration fee where applicable. The SYSCOM center in Baltimore coordinates the helicopter transport to the scene of the accident as well as referral to the specialty care facility: Adult Level I Trauma Center, Pediatric Level I Trauma Center, and Regional Burn Center. An on-the-scene evaluation of this exemplary emergency medical system in Maryland provides further convincing evidence of the performance of the Maryland State Police Aviation Division as they transported an injured child to the Johns Hopkins Pediatric Level I Trauma Center. It is our belief that the model emergency medical system in Maryland, if replicated throughout our nation, would save the lives of the critically injured.

Unsilencing Critical Conversations in Social-Studies Teacher Education Using Agent-Based Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hostetler, Andrew; Sengupta, Pratim; Hollett, Ty

2018-01-01

In this article, we argue that when complex sociopolitical issues such as ethnocentrism and racial segregation are represented as complex, emergent systems using agent-based computational models (in short agent-based models or ABMs), discourse about these representations can disrupt social studies teacher candidates' dispositions of teaching…

Brachypodium as a model for the grasses: today and the future

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Over the past several years, Brachypodium distachyon (Brachypodium) has emerged as a tractable model system to study biological questions relevant to the grasses. To place its relevance in the larger context of plant biology, we outline here the expanding adoption of Brachypodium as a model grass an...

Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyler, David Clinton

1984-01-01

Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

Model-Based Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ifenthaler, Dirk; Seel, Norbert M.

2013-01-01

In this paper, there will be a particular focus on mental models and their application to inductive reasoning within the realm of instruction. A basic assumption of this study is the observation that the construction of mental models and related reasoning is a slowly developing capability of cognitive systems that emerges effectively with proper…

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Placing Students at the Heart of the Iron Triangle and the Interaction Equivalence Theorem Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Andy

2014-01-01

A number of visual models have been proposed to help explain the interplay and interactions between specified components of higher education systems at different levels and to take account of emerging trends towards open education systems. At sector and institutional levels the notion of an iron triangle has been posited, linking firstly access,…

Emergency Braking of a Mine Hoist in the Context of the Braking System Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolny, Stanisław

2017-03-01

The paper addresses the selected aspects of the dynamic behaviour of mine hoists during the emergency braking phase. Basing on the model of the hoist and supported by theoretical backgrounds provided by the author (Wolny, 2016), analytical formulas are derived to determine the parameters of the braking system such that during an emergency braking it should guarantee that: - the maximal loading of the hoisting ropes should not exceed the rope breaking force, - deceleration of the conveyances being stopped should not exceed the admissible levels Results of the dynamic analysis of the mine hoist behaviour during an emergency braking phase summarised in this study can be utilised to support the design of conveyance and rope attachments by the fatigue endurance methods, with an aim to adapt it to the specified operational parameters of the hoisting installation (Eurokod 3).

Analysis of Hepatic Blood Flow Using Chaotic Models

PubMed Central

Cohen, M. E.; Moazamipour, H.; Hudson, D. L.; Anderson, M. F.

1990-01-01

The study of chaos in physical systems is an important new theoretical development in modeling which has emerged in the last fifteen years. It is particularly useful in explaining phenomena which arise in nonlinear dynamic systems, for which previous mathematical models produced results with intractable solutions. Analysis of blood flow is such an application. In the work described here, chaotic models are used to analyze hepatic artery and portal vein blood flow obtained from a pulsed Doppler ultrasonic flowmeter implanted in dogs. ImagesFigure 3

Emergency Preparedness in the Workplace: The Flulapalooza Model for Mass Vaccination.

PubMed

Swift, Melanie D; Aliyu, Muktar H; Byrne, Daniel W; Qian, Keqin; McGown, Paula; Kinman, Patricia O; Hanson, Katherine Louise; Culpepper, Demoyne; Cooley, Tamara J; Yarbrough, Mary I

2017-09-01

To explore whether an emergency preparedness structure is a feasible, efficient, and sustainable way for health care organizations to manage mass vaccination events. We used the Hospital Incident Command System to conduct a 1-day annual mass influenza vaccination event at Vanderbilt University Medical Center over 5 successive years (2011-2015). Using continuous quality improvement principles, we assessed whether changes in layout, supply management, staffing, and documentation systems improved efficiency. A total of 66 591 influenza vaccines were administered at 5 annual Flulapalooza events; 13 318 vaccines per event on average. Changes to the physical layout, staffing mix, and documentation processes improved vaccination efficiency 74%, from approximately 38 to 67 vaccines per hour per vaccinator, while reducing overall staffing needs by 38%. An unexpected finding was the role of social media in facilitating active engagement. Health care organizations can use a closed point-of-dispensing model and Hospital Incident Command System to conduct mass vaccination events, and can adopt the "Flulapalooza method" as a best practice model to enhance efficiency.

Vanishing characteristic speeds and critical dispersive points in nonlinear interfacial wave problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratliff, Daniel J.

2017-11-01

Criticality plays a central role in the study of reductions and stability of hydrodynamical systems. At critical points, it is often the case that nonlinear reductions with dispersion arise to govern solution behavior. By considering when such models become bidirectional and lose their initial dispersive properties, it will be shown that higher order dispersive models may be supported in hydrodynamical systems. Precisely, this equation is a two-way Boussinesq equation with sixth order dispersion. The case of two layered shallow water is considered to illustrate this, and it is reasoned why such an environment is natural for such a system to emerge. Further, it is demonstrated that the regions in the parameter space for nontrivial flow, which admit this reduction, are vast and in fact form a continuum. The reduced model is then numerically simulated to illustrate how the two-way and higher dispersive properties suggest more exotic families of solitary wave solutions can emerge in stratified flows.

Translational Neuroscience as a Tool for Intervention Development in the Context of High-Adversity Families

PubMed Central

Fisher, Philip A.

2017-01-01

The use of theory-driven models to develop and evaluate family-based intervention programs has a long history in psychology. Some of the first evidence-based parenting programs to address child problem behavior, developed in the 1970s, were grounded in causal models derived from longitudinal developmental research. The same translational strategies can also be applied to designing programs that leverage emerging scientific knowledge about the effects of early adverse experiences on neurobiological systems to reduce risk and promote well-being. By specifying not only behavioral targets but also affected underlying neural systems, interventions can become more precise and efficient. This chapter describes the development of a program of research focusing on an intervention for young children in foster care. The intervention emerged from social learning theory research and employs a translational neuroscience approach. The conceptual model guiding the research, which incorporates behavioral domains as well as stress-regulatory neural systems, is described. Finally, future directions for translational neuroscience in family-based intervention research are considered. PMID:27589501

Emergent phases of fractonic matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prem, Abhinav; Pretko, Michael; Nandkishore, Rahul M.

2018-02-01

Fractons are emergent particles which are immobile in isolation, but which can move together in dipolar pairs or other small clusters. These exotic excitations naturally occur in certain quantum phases of matter described by tensor gauge theories. Previous research has focused on the properties of small numbers of fractons and their interactions, effectively mapping out the "standard model" of fractons. In the present work, however, we consider systems with a finite density of either fractons or their dipolar bound states, with a focus on the U (1 ) fracton models. We study some of the phases in which emergent fractonic matter can exist, thereby initiating the study of the "condensed matter" of fractons. We begin by considering a system with a finite density of fractons, which we show can exhibit microemulsion physics, in which fractons form small-scale clusters emulsed in a phase dominated by long-range repulsion. We then move on to study systems with a finite density of mobile dipoles, which have phases analogous to many conventional condensed matter phases. We focus on two major examples: Fermi liquids and quantum Hall phases. A finite density of fermionic dipoles will form a Fermi surface and enter a Fermi liquid phase. Interestingly, this dipolar Fermi liquid exhibits a finite-temperature phase transition, corresponding to an unbinding transition of fractons. Finally, we study chiral two-dimensional phases corresponding to dipoles in "quantum Hall" states of their emergent magnetic field. We study numerous aspects of these generalized quantum Hall systems, such as their edge theories and ground state degeneracies.

Integrating causal reasoning at different levels of abstraction. [in problem-solving system functioning as pilot assistant in commercial air transport emergencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudlicka, Eva; Corker, Kevin

1988-01-01

In this paper, a problem-solving system which uses a multilevel causal model of its domain is described. The system functions in the role of a pilot's assistant in the domain of commercial air transport emergencies. The model represents causal relationships among the aircraft subsystems, the effectors (engines, control surfaces), the forces that act on an aircraft in flight (thrust, lift), and the aircraft's flight profile (speed, altitude, etc.). The causal relationships are represented at three levels of abstraction: Boolean, qualitative, and quantitative, and reasoning about causes and effects can take place at each of these levels. Since processing at each level has different characteristics with respect to speed, the type of data required, and the specificity of the results, the problem-solving system can adapt to a wide variety of situations. The system is currently being implemented in the KEE(TM) development environment on a Symbolics Lisp machine.

Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of precipitation play in limiting the accumulation and duration of particulate pollution episodes.

Variable gravity research facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allan, Sean; Ancheta, Stan; Beine, Donna; Cink, Brian; Eagon, Mark; Eckstein, Brett; Luhman, Dan; Mccowan, Daniel; Nations, James; Nordtvedt, Todd

1988-01-01

Spin and despin requirements; sequence of activities required to assemble the Variable Gravity Research Facility (VGRF); power systems technology; life support; thermal control systems; emergencies; communication systems; space station applications; experimental activities; computer modeling and simulation of tether vibration; cost analysis; configuration of the crew compartments; and tether lengths and rotation speeds are discussed.

A Public Health Preparedness Logic Model: Assessing Preparedness for Cross-border Threats in the European Region

PubMed Central

Nelson, Christopher; Savoia, Elena; Ljungqvist, Irina; Ciotti, Massimo

2017-01-01

Improving preparedness in the European region requires a clear understanding of what European Union (EU) member states should be able to do, whether acting internally or in cooperation with each other or the EU and other multilateral organizations. We have developed a preparedness logic model that specifies the aims and objectives of public health preparedness, as well as the response capabilities and preparedness capacities needed to achieve them. The capabilities, which describe the ability to effectively use capacities to identify, characterize, and respond to emergencies, are organized into 5 categories. The first 3 categories—(1) assessment; (2) policy development, adaptation, and implementation; and (3) prevention and treatment services in the health sector—represent what the public health system must accomplish to respond effectively. The fourth and fifth categories represent a series of interrelated functions needed to ensure that the system fulfills its assessment, policy development, and prevention and treatment roles: (4) coordination and communication regards information sharing within the public health system, incident management, and leadership, and (5) emergency risk communication focuses on communication with the public. This model provides a framework for identifying what to measure in capacity inventories, exercises, critical incident analyses, and other approaches to assessing public health emergency preparedness, not how to measure them. Focusing on a common set of capacities and capabilities to measure allows for comparisons both over time and between member states, which can enhance learning and sharing results and help identify both strengths and areas for improvement of public health emergency preparedness in the EU. PMID:29058967

Application of syndromic surveillance on routinely collected cattle reproduction and milk production data for the early detection of outbreaks of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses.

PubMed

Veldhuis, Anouk; Brouwer-Middelesch, Henriëtte; Marceau, Alexis; Madouasse, Aurélien; Van der Stede, Yves; Fourichon, Christine; Welby, Sarah; Wever, Paul; van Schaik, Gerdien

2016-02-01

This study aimed to evaluate the use of routinely collected reproductive and milk production data for the early detection of emerging vector-borne diseases in cattle in the Netherlands and the Flanders region of Belgium (i.e., the northern part of Belgium). Prospective space-time cluster analyses on residuals from a model on milk production were carried out to detect clusters of reduced milk yield. A CUSUM algorithm was used to detect temporal aberrations in model residuals of reproductive performance models on two indicators of gestation length. The Bluetongue serotype-8 (BTV-8) epidemics of 2006 and 2007 and the Schmallenberg virus (SBV) epidemic of 2011 were used as case studies to evaluate the sensitivity and timeliness of these methods. The methods investigated in this study did not result in a more timely detection of BTV-8 and SBV in the Netherlands and BTV-8 in Belgium given the surveillance systems in place when these viruses emerged. This could be due to (i) the large geographical units used in the analyses (country, region and province level), and (ii) the high level of sensitivity of the surveillance systems in place when these viruses emerged. Nevertheless, it might be worthwhile to use a syndromic surveillance system based on non-specific animal health data in real-time alongside regular surveillance, to increase the sense of urgency and to provide valuable quantitative information for decision makers in the initial phase of an emerging disease outbreak. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Public Health Preparedness Logic Model: Assessing Preparedness for Cross-border Threats in the European Region.

PubMed

Stoto, Michael A; Nelson, Christopher; Savoia, Elena; Ljungqvist, Irina; Ciotti, Massimo

Improving preparedness in the European region requires a clear understanding of what European Union (EU) member states should be able to do, whether acting internally or in cooperation with each other or the EU and other multilateral organizations. We have developed a preparedness logic model that specifies the aims and objectives of public health preparedness, as well as the response capabilities and preparedness capacities needed to achieve them. The capabilities, which describe the ability to effectively use capacities to identify, characterize, and respond to emergencies, are organized into 5 categories. The first 3 categories-(1) assessment; (2) policy development, adaptation, and implementation; and (3) prevention and treatment services in the health sector-represent what the public health system must accomplish to respond effectively. The fourth and fifth categories represent a series of interrelated functions needed to ensure that the system fulfills its assessment, policy development, and prevention and treatment roles: (4) coordination and communication regards information sharing within the public health system, incident management, and leadership, and (5) emergency risk communication focuses on communication with the public. This model provides a framework for identifying what to measure in capacity inventories, exercises, critical incident analyses, and other approaches to assessing public health emergency preparedness, not how to measure them. Focusing on a common set of capacities and capabilities to measure allows for comparisons both over time and between member states, which can enhance learning and sharing results and help identify both strengths and areas for improvement of public health emergency preparedness in the EU.

An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Espíndola, Aquino L.; Bauch, Chris T.; Troca Cabella, Brenno C.; Souto Martinez, Alexandre

2011-05-01

In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed.

Human pluripotent stem cells: an emerging model in developmental biology.

PubMed

Zhu, Zengrong; Huangfu, Danwei

2013-02-01

Developmental biology has long benefited from studies of classic model organisms. Recently, human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs), including human embryonic stem cells and human induced pluripotent stem cells, have emerged as a new model system that offers unique advantages for developmental studies. Here, we discuss how studies of hPSCs can complement classic approaches using model organisms, and how hPSCs can be used to recapitulate aspects of human embryonic development 'in a dish'. We also summarize some of the recently developed genetic tools that greatly facilitate the interrogation of gene function during hPSC differentiation. With the development of high-throughput screening technologies, hPSCs have the potential to revolutionize gene discovery in mammalian development.

Interactive Sonification Exploring Emergent Behavior Applying Models for Biological Information and Listening

PubMed Central

Choi, Insook

2018-01-01

Sonification is an open-ended design task to construct sound informing a listener of data. Understanding application context is critical for shaping design requirements for data translation into sound. Sonification requires methodology to maintain reproducibility when data sources exhibit non-linear properties of self-organization and emergent behavior. This research formalizes interactive sonification in an extensible model to support reproducibility when data exhibits emergent behavior. In the absence of sonification theory, extensibility demonstrates relevant methods across case studies. The interactive sonification framework foregrounds three factors: reproducible system implementation for generating sonification; interactive mechanisms enhancing a listener's multisensory observations; and reproducible data from models that characterize emergent behavior. Supramodal attention research suggests interactive exploration with auditory feedback can generate context for recognizing irregular patterns and transient dynamics. The sonification framework provides circular causality as a signal pathway for modeling a listener interacting with emergent behavior. The extensible sonification model adopts a data acquisition pathway to formalize functional symmetry across three subsystems: Experimental Data Source, Sound Generation, and Guided Exploration. To differentiate time criticality and dimensionality of emerging dynamics, tuning functions are applied between subsystems to maintain scale and symmetry of concurrent processes and temporal dynamics. Tuning functions accommodate sonification design strategies that yield order parameter values to render emerging patterns discoverable as well as rehearsable, to reproduce desired instances for clinical listeners. Case studies are implemented with two computational models, Chua's circuit and Swarm Chemistry social agent simulation, generating data in real-time that exhibits emergent behavior. Heuristic Listening is introduced as an informal model of a listener's clinical attention to data sonification through multisensory interaction in a context of structured inquiry. Three methods are introduced to assess the proposed sonification framework: Listening Scenario classification, data flow Attunement, and Sonification Design Patterns to classify sound control. Case study implementations are assessed against these methods comparing levels of abstraction between experimental data and sound generation. Outcomes demonstrate the framework performance as a reference model for representing experimental implementations, also for identifying common sonification structures having different experimental implementations, identifying common functions implemented in different subsystems, and comparing impact of affordances across multiple implementations of listening scenarios. PMID:29755311

A Method for Evaluating the Safety Impacts of Air Traffic Automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Peter; Shapiro, Gerald; Hanson, Dave; Kolitz, Stephan; Leong, Frank; Rosch, Gene; Bonesteel, Charles

1998-01-01

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety and operational impacts of emerging air traffic technologies. The approach integrates traditional reliability models of the system infrastructure with models that analyze the environment within which the system operates, and models of how the system responds to different scenarios. Products of the analysis include safety measures such as predicted incident rates, predicted accident statistics, and false alarm rates; and operational availability data. The report demonstrates the methodology with an analysis of the operation of the Center-TRACON Automation System at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Causal Scale of Rotors in a Cardiac System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashikaga, Hiroshi; Prieto-Castrillo, Francisco; Kawakatsu, Mari; Dehghani, Nima

2018-04-01

Rotors of spiral waves are thought to be one of the potential mechanisms that maintain atrial fibrillation (AF). However, disappointing clinical outcomes of rotor mapping and ablation to eliminate AF raise a serious doubt on rotors as a macro-scale mechanism that causes the micro-scale behavior of individual cardiomyocytes to maintain spiral waves. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the causal relationship between rotors and spiral waves in a numerical model of cardiac excitation. To accomplish the aim, we described the system in a series of spatiotemporal scales by generating a renormalization group, and evaluated the causal architecture of the system by quantifying causal emergence. Causal emergence is an information-theoretic metric that quantifies emergence or reduction between micro- and macro-scale behaviors of a system by evaluating effective information at each scale. We found that the cardiac system with rotors has a spatiotemporal scale at which effective information peaks. A positive correlation between the number of rotors and causal emergence was observed only up to the scale of peak causation. We conclude that rotors are not the universal mechanism to maintain spiral waves at all spatiotemporal scales. This finding may account for the conflicting benefit of rotor ablation in clinical studies.

Framework for Real-Time All-Hazards Global Situational Awareness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Fernandez, Steven J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

Information systems play a pivotal role in emergency response by making consequence analysis models based on up-to-date data available to decision makers. While consequence analysis models have been used for years on local scales, their application on national and global scales has been constrained by lack of non-proprietary data. This chapter describes how this has changed using a framework for real-time all-hazards situational awareness called the Energy Awareness and Resiliency Standardized Services (EARSS) as an example. EARSS is a system of systems developed to collect non-proprietary data from diverse open content sources to develop a geodatabase of critical infrastructures allmore » over the world. The EARSS system shows that it is feasible to provide global disaster alerts by producing valuable information such as texting messages about detected hazards, emailing reports about affected areas, estimating an expected number of impacted people and their demographic characteristics, identifying critical infrastructures that may be affected, and analyzing potential downstream effects. This information is provided in real-time to federal agencies and subscribers all over the world for decision making in humanitarian assistance and emergency response. The system also uses live streams of power outages, weather, and satellite surveillance data as events unfold. This, in turn, is combined with other public domain or open content information, such as media reports and postings on social networking websites, for complete coverage of the situation as events unfold. Working with up-to-date information from the EARSS system, emergency responders on the ground could pre-position their staff and resources, such as emergency generators and ice, where they are most needed.« less

The Emerging Role of Social Work in Primary Health Care: A Survey of Social Workers in Ontario Family Health Teams.

PubMed

Ashcroft, Rachelle; McMillan, Colleen; Ambrose-Miller, Wayne; McKee, Ryan; Brown, Judith Belle

2018-05-01

Primary health care systems are increasingly integrating interprofessional team-based approaches to care delivery. As members of these interprofessional primary health care teams, it is important for social workers to explore our experiences of integration into these newly emerging teams to help strengthen patient care. Despite the expansion of social work within primary health care settings, few studies have examined the integration of social work's role into this expanding area of the health care system. A survey was conducted with Canadian social work practitioners who were employed within Family Health Teams (FHTs), an interprofessional model of primary health care in Ontario emerging from a period of health care reform. One hundred and twenty-eight (N = 128) respondents completed the online survey. Key barriers to social work integration in FHTs included difficulties associated with a medical model environment, confusion about social work role, and organizational barriers. Facilitators for integration of social work in FHTs included adequate education and competencies, collaborative engagement, and organizational structures.

Self-organization of network dynamics into local quantized states.

PubMed

Nicolaides, Christos; Juanes, Ruben; Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis

2016-02-17

Self-organization and pattern formation in network-organized systems emerges from the collective activation and interaction of many interconnected units. A striking feature of these non-equilibrium structures is that they are often localized and robust: only a small subset of the nodes, or cell assembly, is activated. Understanding the role of cell assemblies as basic functional units in neural networks and socio-technical systems emerges as a fundamental challenge in network theory. A key open question is how these elementary building blocks emerge, and how they operate, linking structure and function in complex networks. Here we show that a network analogue of the Swift-Hohenberg continuum model-a minimal-ingredients model of nodal activation and interaction within a complex network-is able to produce a complex suite of localized patterns. Hence, the spontaneous formation of robust operational cell assemblies in complex networks can be explained as the result of self-organization, even in the absence of synaptic reinforcements.

Uncovering factors affecting use of the emergency department for less urgent health problems in urban and rural areas.

PubMed

Hodgins, Marilyn J; Wuest, Judith

2007-09-01

People who access the emergency department for less urgent health problems have been described as inappropriate users of the health-care system.Yet little is known about the factors precipitating such use and how these differ based on location of the emergency department. In this descriptive-correlational study guided by Andersen's Model of Health Services Use, 1612 people who presented to an emergency department with a less urgent health problem were interviewed. Analysis revealed rural/urban differences in the characteristics of patients, nature of the problems, actions taken, and factors precipitating the visit. Despite its popularity, the predictive capabilities of Andersen's model were limited in explaining use of self-treatment or willingness to wait for treatment. The findings show that an emergency department's roles and functions vary according to its location. Such insights provide direction for developing services that respond to the needs of people with less urgent health problems that are cognizant of geographic location.

Approaches for scalable modeling and emulation of cyber systems : LDRD final report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayo, Jackson R.; Minnich, Ronald G.; Armstrong, Robert C.

2009-09-01

The goal of this research was to combine theoretical and computational approaches to better understand the potential emergent behaviors of large-scale cyber systems, such as networks of {approx} 10{sup 6} computers. The scale and sophistication of modern computer software, hardware, and deployed networked systems have significantly exceeded the computational research community's ability to understand, model, and predict current and future behaviors. This predictive understanding, however, is critical to the development of new approaches for proactively designing new systems or enhancing existing systems with robustness to current and future cyber threats, including distributed malware such as botnets. We have developed preliminarymore » theoretical and modeling capabilities that can ultimately answer questions such as: How would we reboot the Internet if it were taken down? Can we change network protocols to make them more secure without disrupting existing Internet connectivity and traffic flow? We have begun to address these issues by developing new capabilities for understanding and modeling Internet systems at scale. Specifically, we have addressed the need for scalable network simulation by carrying out emulations of a network with {approx} 10{sup 6} virtualized operating system instances on a high-performance computing cluster - a 'virtual Internet'. We have also explored mappings between previously studied emergent behaviors of complex systems and their potential cyber counterparts. Our results provide foundational capabilities for further research toward understanding the effects of complexity in cyber systems, to allow anticipating and thwarting hackers.« less

General and craniofacial development are complex adaptive processes influenced by diversity.

PubMed

Brook, A H; O'Donnell, M Brook; Hone, A; Hart, E; Hughes, T E; Smith, R N; Townsend, G C

2014-06-01

Complex systems are present in such diverse areas as social systems, economies, ecosystems and biology and, therefore, are highly relevant to dental research, education and practice. A Complex Adaptive System in biological development is a dynamic process in which, from interacting components at a lower level, higher level phenomena and structures emerge. Diversity makes substantial contributions to the performance of complex adaptive systems. It enhances the robustness of the process, allowing multiple responses to external stimuli as well as internal changes. From diversity comes variation in outcome and the possibility of major change; outliers in the distribution enhance the tipping points. The development of the dentition is a valuable, accessible model with extensive and reliable databases for investigating the role of complex adaptive systems in craniofacial and general development. The general characteristics of such systems are seen during tooth development: self-organization; bottom-up emergence; multitasking; self-adaptation; variation; tipping points; critical phases; and robustness. Dental findings are compatible with the Random Network Model, the Threshold Model and also with the Scale Free Network Model which has a Power Law distribution. In addition, dental development shows the characteristics of Modularity and Clustering to form Hierarchical Networks. The interactions between the genes (nodes) demonstrate Small World phenomena, Subgraph Motifs and Gene Regulatory Networks. Genetic mechanisms are involved in the creation and evolution of variation during development. The genetic factors interact with epigenetic and environmental factors at the molecular level and form complex networks within the cells. From these interactions emerge the higher level tissues, tooth germs and mineralized teeth. Approaching development in this way allows investigation of why there can be variations in phenotypes from identical genotypes; the phenotype is the outcome of perturbations in the cellular systems and networks, as well as of the genotype. Understanding and applying complexity theory will bring about substantial advances not only in dental research and education but also in the organization and delivery of oral health care. © 2014 Australian Dental Association.

Understanding the Quality Factors That Influence the Continuance Intention of Students toward Participation in MOOCs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Ming; Shao, Zhen; Liu, Qian; Liu, Chuiyi

2017-01-01

The massive open online course (MOOC) is emerging as the new paradigm for modern education. The success of MOOCs depends on learners' continued usage. Drawing upon the information systems success model (IS success model) and technology acceptance model, a theoretical model for studying learners' continuance intentions toward participation in MOOCs…

Development and evaluation of a leadership training program for public health emergency response: results from a Chinese study.

PubMed

Wang, Chongjian; Wei, Sheng; Xiang, Hao; Wu, Jing; Xu, Yihua; Liu, Li; Nie, Shaofa

2008-10-30

Since the 9/11 attack and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the development of qualified and able public health leaders has become a new urgency in building the infrastructure needed to address public health emergencies. Although previous studies have reported that the training of individual leaders is an important approach, the systemic and scientific training model need further improvement and development. The purpose of this study was to develop, deliver, and evaluate a participatory leadership training program for emergency response. Forty-one public health leaders (N = 41) from five provinces completed the entire emergency preparedness training program in China. The program was evaluated by anonymous questionnaires and semi-structured interviews held prior to training, immediately post-training and 12-month after training (Follow-up). The emergency preparedness training resulted in positive shifts in knowledge, self-assessment of skills for public health leaders. More than ninety-five percent of participants reported that the training model was scientific and feasible. Moreover, the response of participants in the program to the avian influenza outbreak, as well as the planned evaluations for this leadership training program, further demonstrated both the successful approaches and methods and the positive impact of this integrated leadership training initiative. The emergency preparedness training program met its aims and objectives satisfactorily, and improved the emergency capability of public health leaders. This suggests that the leadership training model was effective and feasible in improving the emergency preparedness capability.

Does the Discourse of Employer Linked Charter Schools Signal a Commitment to Work Force Development or Transformational Learning?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freeman, Eric; Lakes, Richard D.

2005-01-01

The latest model for educational reform emerging in the US vocational-technical delivery system is the employer linked charter school (ELCS). This emerging concept is viewed as a partnership between constituents in the regular school organization and employers who are directly involved in the school's design, governance, and delivery of learning…

Agent-based models of cellular systems.

PubMed

Cannata, Nicola; Corradini, Flavio; Merelli, Emanuela; Tesei, Luca

2013-01-01

Software agents are particularly suitable for engineering models and simulations of cellular systems. In a very natural and intuitive manner, individual software components are therein delegated to reproduce "in silico" the behavior of individual components of alive systems at a given level of resolution. Individuals' actions and interactions among individuals allow complex collective behavior to emerge. In this chapter we first introduce the readers to software agents and multi-agent systems, reviewing the evolution of agent-based modeling of biomolecular systems in the last decade. We then describe the main tools, platforms, and methodologies available for programming societies of agents, possibly profiting also of toolkits that do not require advanced programming skills.

Axelrod's model with surface tension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pace, Bruno; Prado, Carmen P. C.

2014-06-01

In this work we propose a subtle change in Axelrod's model for the dissemination of culture. The mechanism consists of excluding from the set of potentially interacting neighbors those that would never possibly exchange. Although the alteration proposed does not alter the state space topologically, it yields significant qualitative changes, specifically the emergence of surface tension, driving the system in some cases to metastable states. The transient behavior is considerably richer, and cultural regions become stable leading to the formation of different spatiotemporal patterns. A metastable "glassy" phase emerges between the globalized phase and the disordered, multicultural phase.

International Universities: Misunderstandings and Emerging Models?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knight, Jane

2015-01-01

Internationalization has transformed higher education institutions and systems but there is much confusion as to what an international, binational, transnational, cosmopolitan, multinational, or global university actually means. There is no standardized model for an international university, nor should there be, but a deeper understanding of…

A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR MULTI-SCALAR ASSESSMENTS OF ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY

EPA Science Inventory

A conceptual model was developed that relates an estuarine system's anthropogenic inputs to it's ecological integrity. Ecological integrity is operationally defined as an emergent property of an ecosystem that exists when the structural components are complete and the functional ...

Management of information within emergencies departments in developing countries: analysis at the National Emergency Department in Benin.

PubMed

Ahanhanzo, Yolaine Glèlè; Kpozehouen, Alphonse; Sopoh, Ghislain; Sossa-Jérôme, Charles; Ouedraogo, Laurent; Wilmet-Dramaix, Michèle

2016-01-01

The management of health information is a key pillar in both emergencies reception and handling facilities, given the strategic position and the potential of these facilities within hospitals, and in the monitoring of public health and epidemiology. With the technological revolution, computerization made the information systems evolve in emergency departments, especially in developed countries, with improved performance in terms of care quality, productivity and patient satisfaction. This study analyses the situation of Benin in this field, through the case of the Academic Clinic of Emergency Department of the National University Teaching Hospital of Cotonou, the national reference hospital. The study is cross-sectional and evaluative. Collection techniques are literature review and structured interviews. The components rated are resources, indicators, data sources, data management and the use-dissemination of the information through a model adapted from Health Metrics Network framework. We used quantitative and qualitative analysis. The absence of a regulatory framework restricts the operation of the system in all components and accounts for the lack and inadequacy of the dedicated resources. Dedication of more resources for this system for crucial needs such as computerization requires sensitization and greater awareness of the administrative authorities about the fact that an effective health information management system is of prime importance in this type of facility.

Purchasing and Using Personal Emergency Response Systems (PERS): how decisions are made by community-dwelling seniors in Canada.

PubMed

McKenna, Alexandra C; Kloseck, Marita; Crilly, Richard; Polgar, Jan

2015-07-11

As the demographic of older people continues to grow, health services that support independence among community-dwelling seniors have become increasingly important. Personal Emergency Response Systems (PERS) are medical alert systems, designed to serve as a safety net for seniors living alone. Health care professionals often recommend that seniors in danger of falls or other medical emergencies obtain a PERS. The purpose of the study was to investigate the experience of seniors living with and using a PERS in their daily lives, using a qualitative grounded theory approach. Five focus groups and 10 semi-structured interviews, with a total of 30 participants, were completed using a grounded theory approach. All participants were PERS subscribers over the age of 80, living alone in a naturally occurring retirement community (NORC) with high health service utilization in a major urban centre in Ontario. Constant comparative analysis was used to develop themes and ultimately a model of why and how seniors obtain and use the PERS. Two core themes, unpredictability and decision-making around PERS activation, emerged as major features of the theoretical model. Being able to get help and the psychological value of PERS informed the context of living with a PERS. A number of theoretical conclusions related to unpredictability and the decision-making process around activating PERS were generated.

On the emergence of the ΛCDM model from self-interacting Brans-Dicke theory in d= 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, Luz Marina; Perez Bergliaffa, Santiago Esteban

2018-01-01

We investigate whether a self-interacting Brans-Dicke theory in d=5 without matter and with a time-dependent metric can describe, after dimensional reduction to d=4, the FLRW model with accelerated expansion and non-relativistic matter. By rewriting the effective 4-dimensional theory as an autonomous 3-dimensional dynamical system and studying its critical points, we show that the ΛCDM cosmology cannot emerge from such a model. This result suggests that a richer structure in d=5 may be needed to obtain the accelerated expansion as well as the matter content of the 4-dimensional universe.

Understanding aneuploidy in cancer through the lens of system inheritance, fuzzy inheritance and emergence of new genome systems.

PubMed

Ye, Christine J; Regan, Sarah; Liu, Guo; Alemara, Sarah; Heng, Henry H

2018-01-01

In the past 15 years, impressive progress has been made to understand the molecular mechanism behind aneuploidy, largely due to the effort of using various -omics approaches to study model systems (e.g. yeast and mouse models) and patient samples, as well as the new realization that chromosome alteration-mediated genome instability plays the key role in cancer. As the molecular characterization of the causes and effects of aneuploidy progresses, the search for the general mechanism of how aneuploidy contributes to cancer becomes increasingly challenging: since aneuploidy can be linked to diverse molecular pathways (in regards to both cause and effect), the chances of it being cancerous is highly context-dependent, making it more difficult to study than individual molecular mechanisms. When so many genomic and environmental factors can be linked to aneuploidy, and most of them not commonly shared among patients, the practical value of characterizing additional genetic/epigenetic factors contributing to aneuploidy decreases. Based on the fact that cancer typically represents a complex adaptive system, where there is no linear relationship between lower-level agents (such as each individual gene mutation) and emergent properties (such as cancer phenotypes), we call for a new strategy based on the evolutionary mechanism of aneuploidy in cancer, rather than continuous analysis of various individual molecular mechanisms. To illustrate our viewpoint, we have briefly reviewed both the progress and challenges in this field, suggesting the incorporation of an evolutionary-based mechanism to unify diverse molecular mechanisms. To further clarify this rationale, we will discuss some key concepts of the genome theory of cancer evolution, including system inheritance, fuzzy inheritance, and cancer as a newly emergent cellular system. Illustrating how aneuploidy impacts system inheritance, fuzzy inheritance and the emergence of new systems is of great importance. Such synthesis encourages efforts to apply the principles/approaches of complex adaptive systems to ultimately understand aneuploidy in cancer.

Mathematical Modeling of the Origins of Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pohorille, Andrew

2006-01-01

The emergence of early metabolism - a network of catalyzed chemical reactions that supported self-maintenance, growth, reproduction and evolution of the ancestors of contemporary cells (protocells) was a critical, but still very poorly understood step on the path from inanimate to animate matter. Here, it is proposed and tested through mathematical modeling of biochemically plausible systems that the emergence of metabolism and its initial evolution towards higher complexity preceded the emergence of a genome. Even though the formation of protocellular metabolism was driven by non-genomic, highly stochastic processes the outcome was largely deterministic, strongly constrained by laws of chemistry. It is shown that such concepts as speciation and fitness to the environment, developed in the context of genomic evolution, also held in the absence of a genome.

[Proposing a physiological model for Emergency Department. Operating principles, classification of overcrowding and guidelines for redesign].

PubMed

Herrera Carranza, M; Aguado Correa, F; Padilla Garrido, N; López Camacho, F

2017-04-30

The operation of Emergency Departments (ED) is determined by demand, their own organizational structures and the connection to other medical care levels. When these elements are not simultaneous, it hinders patient flow and decreases capacity, making it necessary to employ a systemic approach to the chain of emergency care as a single operational entity. With this theoretical orientation, we suggest a conceptual model similar to the physiological cardiac output, in which the preload is the demand, the contractile or flow pump is the organizational structure, the afterload is the hospital, the pre-ED valve is primary care and outpatient emergencies, and the post-ED valve is the diagnostic support services and the specialist consultants. Based on this theoretical approach we classify the different types of ED overcrowding and systematise its causes and the different waiting lists that it generates, which can help to redesign the service and avoid its saturation.

Wind Turbine Blade CAD Models Used as Scaffolding Technique to Teach Design Engineers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Irwin, John

2013-01-01

The Siemens PLM CAD software NX is commonly used for designing mechanical systems, and in complex systems such as the emerging area of wind power, the ability to have a model controlled by design parameters is a certain advantage. Formula driven expressions based on the amount of available wind in an area can drive the amount of effective surface…

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology: A Case for Disease Models

PubMed Central

Ramanujan, S; Schmidt, BJ; Ghobrial, OG; Lu, J; Heatherington, AC

2016-01-01

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) has emerged as an innovative approach in model‐informed drug discovery and development, supporting program decisions from exploratory research through late‐stage clinical trials. In this commentary, we discuss the unique value of disease‐scale “platform” QSP models that are amenable to reuse and repurposing to support diverse clinical decisions in ways distinct from other pharmacometrics strategies. PMID:27709613

Applying the lessons of maternal mortality reduction to global emergency health

PubMed Central

Skog, Alexander P; Tenner, Andrea G; Wallis, Lee A

2015-01-01

Abstract Over the last few decades, maternal health has been a major focus of the international community and this has resulted in a substantial decrease in maternal mortality globally. Although, compared with maternal illness, medical and surgical emergencies account for far more morbidity and mortality, there has been less focus on global efforts to improve comprehensive emergency systems. The thoughtful and specific application of the concepts used in the effort to decrease maternal mortality could lead to major improvements in global emergency health services. The so-called three-delay model that was developed for maternal mortality can be adapted to emergency service delivery. Adaptation of evaluation frameworks to include emergency sentinel conditions could allow effective monitoring of emergency facilities and further policy development. Future global emergency health efforts may benefit from incorporating strategies for the planning and evaluation of high-impact interventions. PMID:26240463

Rebuilding Emergency Care After Hurricane Sandy.

PubMed

Lee, David C; Smith, Silas W; McStay, Christopher M; Portelli, Ian; Goldfrank, Lewis R; Husk, Gregg; Shah, Nirav R

2014-04-09

A freestanding, 911-receiving emergency department was implemented at Bellevue Hospital Center during the recovery efforts after Hurricane Sandy to compensate for the increased volume experienced at nearby hospitals. Because inpatient services at several hospitals remained closed for months, emergency volume increased significantly. Thus, in collaboration with the New York State Department of Health and other partners, the Health and Hospitals Corporation and Bellevue Hospital Center opened a freestanding emergency department without on-site inpatient care. The successful operation of this facility hinged on key partnerships with emergency medical services and nearby hospitals. Also essential was the establishment of an emergency critical care ward and a system to monitor emergency department utilization at affected hospitals. The results of this experience, we believe, can provide a model for future efforts to rebuild emergency care capacity after a natural disaster such as Hurricane Sandy. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-4).

Asynchronous Runtimes in Action: An Introspective Framework for a Next Gen Runtime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suetterlein, Joshua D.; Landwehr, Joshua B.; Marquez, Andres

2016-05-23

One of the most critical challenges that new high performance systems face is the lack of system software support for these large scale systems. Investment on system stack components is essential in the development, debugging and optimization of the new emerging programming models. These emerging models have the promise to better utilize the vast hardware resources available in current and future systems. To aid in the development of applications and new system stacks, runtimes, as instances of their respective execution models, need to produce facilities to introspect their inner workings and allow an indepth attribution of performance bottlenecks and computationalmore » patterns. In other words, the runtime systems need to reduce their opacity to observers so that users of a novel program execution model can adapt their designs to fit the intended model usage, regardless of the layer that they are working on. This design/development loop (akin to co-design) enables synergistic opportunities across the entire computational stack. This paper presents the design and implementation of a simple “gray” box performance attribution harness running inside a fine grain runtime system: the Open Community Runtime (OCR). We showcase what such a framework can indicate regarding the runtime behavior while running at scale. To this end, we have designed a set of synthetic scenarios aimed to test the runtime at their best and worst cases. We present an analysis of the most important runtime features, properties and idiosyncrasies that will affect the development of new runtime features, algorithmic selection, and application development.« less

The Evolution of Instructional Design Principles for Intelligent Computer-Assisted Instruction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dede, Christopher; Swigger, Kathleen

1988-01-01

Discusses and compares the design and development of computer assisted instruction (CAI) and intelligent computer assisted instruction (ICAI). Topics discussed include instructional systems design (ISD), artificial intelligence, authoring languages, intelligent tutoring systems (ITS), qualitative models, and emerging issues in instructional…

Nuclear emergency management procedures in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Emma

The Chernobyl accident brought to the fore the need for decision-making in nuclear emergency management to be transparent and consistent across Europe. A range of systems to support decision-making in future emergencies have since been developed, but, by and large, with little consultation with potential decision makers and limited understanding of the emergency management procedures across Europe and how they differ. In nuclear emergency management, coordination, communication and information sharing are of paramount importance. There are many key players with their own technical expertise, and several key activities occur in parallel, across different locations. Business process modelling can facilitate understanding through the representation of processes, aid transparency and structure the analysis, comparison and improvement of processes. This work has been conducted as part of a European Fifth Framework Programme project EVATECH, whose aim was to improve decision support methods, models and processes taking into account stakeholder expectations and concerns. It has involved the application of process modelling to document and compare the emergency management processes in four European countries. It has also involved a multidisciplinary approach taking a socio-technical perspective. The use of process modelling did indeed facilitate understanding and provided a common platform, which was not previously available, to consider emergency management processes. This thesis illustrates the structured analysis approach that process modelling enables. Firstly, through an individual analysis for the United Kingdom (UK) model that illustrated the potential benefits for a country. These are for training purposes, to build reflexive shared mental models, to aid coordination and for process improvement. Secondly, through a comparison of the processes in Belgium, Germany, Slovak Republic and the UK. In this comparison of the four processes we observed that the four process models are substantially different in their organisational structure and identified differences in the management of advice, where decisions are made and the communication network style. Another key aspect of this work is that through the structured analysis conducted we were able to develop a framework for the evaluation of DSS from the perspective of process. This work concludes reflecting on the challenges, which the European off-site nuclear emergency community face and suggest direction for future work, with particular reference to a recent conference on the capabilities and challenges of offsite nuclear emergency management, the Salzburg Symposium 2003.

Augmenting Surgery via Multi-scale Modeling and Translational Systems Biology in the Era of Precision Medicine: A Multidisciplinary Perspective

PubMed Central

Kassab, Ghassan S.; An, Gary; Sander, Edward A.; Miga, Michael; Guccione, Julius M.; Ji, Songbai; Vodovotz, Yoram

2016-01-01

In this era of tremendous technological capabilities and increased focus on improving clinical outcomes, decreasing costs, and increasing precision, there is a need for a more quantitative approach to the field of surgery. Multiscale computational modeling has the potential to bridge the gap to the emerging paradigms of Precision Medicine and Translational Systems Biology, in which quantitative metrics and data guide patient care through improved stratification, diagnosis, and therapy. Achievements by multiple groups have demonstrated the potential for 1) multiscale computational modeling, at a biological level, of diseases treated with surgery and the surgical procedure process at the level of the individual and the population; along with 2) patient-specific, computationally-enabled surgical planning, delivery, and guidance and robotically-augmented manipulation. In this perspective article, we discuss these concepts, and cite emerging examples from the fields of trauma, wound healing, and cardiac surgery. PMID:27015816

Narrow log-periodic modulations in non-Markovian random walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diniz, R. M. B.; Cressoni, J. C.; da Silva, M. A. A.; Mariz, A. M.; de Araújo, J. M.

2017-12-01

What are the necessary ingredients for log-periodicity to appear in the dynamics of a random walk model? Can they be subtle enough to be overlooked? Previous studies suggest that long-range damaged memory and negative feedback together are necessary conditions for the emergence of log-periodic oscillations. The role of negative feedback would then be crucial, forcing the system to change direction. In this paper we show that small-amplitude log-periodic oscillations can emerge when the system is driven by positive feedback. Due to their very small amplitude, these oscillations can easily be mistaken for numerical finite-size effects. The models we use consist of discrete-time random walks with strong memory correlations where the decision process is taken from memory profiles based either on a binomial distribution or on a delta distribution. Anomalous superdiffusive behavior and log-periodic modulations are shown to arise in the large time limit for convenient choices of the models parameters.

How parasitism affects critical patch-size in a host-parasitoid model: application to the forest tent caterpillar.

PubMed

Cobbold, C A; Lewis, M A; Lutscher, F; Roland, J

2005-03-01

Habitat structure has broad impacts on many biological systems. In particular, habitat fragmentation can increase the probability of species extinction and on the other hand it can lead to population outbreaks in response to a decline in natural enemies. An extreme consequence of fragmentation is the isolation of small regions of suitable habitat surrounded by a large region of hostile matrix. This scenario can be interpreted as a critical patch-size problem, well studied in a continuous time framework, but relatively new to discrete time models. In this paper we present an integrodifference host-parasitoid model, discrete in time and continuous in space, to study how the critical habitat-size necessary for parasitoid survival changes in response to parasitoid life history traits, such as emergence time. We show that early emerging parasitoids may be able to persist in smaller habitats than late emerging species. The model predicts that these early emerging parasitoids lead to more severe host outbreaks. We hypothesise that promoting efficient late emerging parasitoids may be key in reducing outbreak severity, an approach requiring large continuous regions of suitable habitat. We parameterise the model for the host species of the forest tent caterpillar Malacosoma disstria Hbn., a pest insect for which fragmented landscape increases the severity of outbreaks. This host is known to have several parasitoids, due to paucity of data and as a first step in the modelling we consider a single generic parasitoid. The model findings are related to observations of the forest tent caterpillar offering insight into this host-parasitoid response to habitat structure.

Concurrent heterogeneous neural model simulation on real-time neuromimetic hardware.

PubMed

Rast, Alexander; Galluppi, Francesco; Davies, Sergio; Plana, Luis; Patterson, Cameron; Sharp, Thomas; Lester, David; Furber, Steve

2011-11-01

Dedicated hardware is becoming increasingly essential to simulate emerging very-large-scale neural models. Equally, however, it needs to be able to support multiple models of the neural dynamics, possibly operating simultaneously within the same system. This may be necessary either to simulate large models with heterogeneous neural types, or to simplify simulation and analysis of detailed, complex models in a large simulation by isolating the new model to a small subpopulation of a larger overall network. The SpiNNaker neuromimetic chip is a dedicated neural processor able to support such heterogeneous simulations. Implementing these models on-chip uses an integrated library-based tool chain incorporating the emerging PyNN interface that allows a modeller to input a high-level description and use an automated process to generate an on-chip simulation. Simulations using both LIF and Izhikevich models demonstrate the ability of the SpiNNaker system to generate and simulate heterogeneous networks on-chip, while illustrating, through the network-scale effects of wavefront synchronisation and burst gating, methods that can provide effective behavioural abstractions for large-scale hardware modelling. SpiNNaker's asynchronous virtual architecture permits greater scope for model exploration, with scalable levels of functional and temporal abstraction, than conventional (or neuromorphic) computing platforms. The complete system illustrates a potential path to understanding the neural model of computation, by building (and breaking) neural models at various scales, connecting the blocks, then comparing them against the biology: computational cognitive neuroscience. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The evolving cobweb of relations among partially rational investors

PubMed Central

DiMeglio, Anna; Garofalo, Franco; Lo Iudice, Francesco

2017-01-01

To overcome the limitations of neoclassical economics, researchers have leveraged tools of statistical physics to build novel theories. The idea was to elucidate the macroscopic features of financial markets from the interaction of its microscopic constituents, the investors. In this framework, the model of the financial agents has been kept separate from that of their interaction. Here, instead, we explore the possibility of letting the interaction topology emerge from the model of the agents’ behavior. Then, we investigate how the emerging cobweb of relationship affects the overall market dynamics. To this aim, we leverage tools from complex systems analysis and nonlinear dynamics, and model the network of mutual influence as the output of a dynamical system describing the edge evolution. In this work, the driver of the link evolution is the relative reputation between possibly coupled agents. The reputation is built differently depending on the extent of rationality of the investors. The continuous edge activation or deactivation induces the emergence of leaders and of peculiar network structures, typical of real influence networks. The subsequent impact on the market dynamics is investigated through extensive numerical simulations in selected scenarios populated by partially rational investors. PMID:28196144

Biodiversity in models of cyclic dominance is preserved by heterogeneity in site-specific invasion rates.

PubMed

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2016-12-05

Global, population-wide oscillations in models of cyclic dominance may result in the collapse of biodiversity due to the accidental extinction of one species in the loop. Previous research has shown that such oscillations can emerge if the interaction network has small-world properties, and more generally, because of long-range interactions among individuals or because of mobility. But although these features are all common in nature, global oscillations are rarely observed in actual biological systems. This begets the question what is the missing ingredient that would prevent local oscillations to synchronize across the population to form global oscillations. Here we show that, although heterogeneous species-specific invasion rates fail to have a noticeable impact on species coexistence, randomness in site-specific invasion rates successfully hinders the emergence of global oscillations and thus preserves biodiversity. Our model takes into account that the environment is often not uniform but rather spatially heterogeneous, which may influence the success of microscopic dynamics locally. This prevents the synchronization of locally emerging oscillations, and ultimately results in a phenomenon where one type of randomness is used to mitigate the adverse effects of other types of randomness in the system.

The evolving cobweb of relations among partially rational investors.

PubMed

DeLellis, Pietro; DiMeglio, Anna; Garofalo, Franco; Lo Iudice, Francesco

2017-01-01

To overcome the limitations of neoclassical economics, researchers have leveraged tools of statistical physics to build novel theories. The idea was to elucidate the macroscopic features of financial markets from the interaction of its microscopic constituents, the investors. In this framework, the model of the financial agents has been kept separate from that of their interaction. Here, instead, we explore the possibility of letting the interaction topology emerge from the model of the agents' behavior. Then, we investigate how the emerging cobweb of relationship affects the overall market dynamics. To this aim, we leverage tools from complex systems analysis and nonlinear dynamics, and model the network of mutual influence as the output of a dynamical system describing the edge evolution. In this work, the driver of the link evolution is the relative reputation between possibly coupled agents. The reputation is built differently depending on the extent of rationality of the investors. The continuous edge activation or deactivation induces the emergence of leaders and of peculiar network structures, typical of real influence networks. The subsequent impact on the market dynamics is investigated through extensive numerical simulations in selected scenarios populated by partially rational investors.

Biodiversity in models of cyclic dominance is preserved by heterogeneity in site-specific invasion rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2016-12-01

Global, population-wide oscillations in models of cyclic dominance may result in the collapse of biodiversity due to the accidental extinction of one species in the loop. Previous research has shown that such oscillations can emerge if the interaction network has small-world properties, and more generally, because of long-range interactions among individuals or because of mobility. But although these features are all common in nature, global oscillations are rarely observed in actual biological systems. This begets the question what is the missing ingredient that would prevent local oscillations to synchronize across the population to form global oscillations. Here we show that, although heterogeneous species-specific invasion rates fail to have a noticeable impact on species coexistence, randomness in site-specific invasion rates successfully hinders the emergence of global oscillations and thus preserves biodiversity. Our model takes into account that the environment is often not uniform but rather spatially heterogeneous, which may influence the success of microscopic dynamics locally. This prevents the synchronization of locally emerging oscillations, and ultimately results in a phenomenon where one type of randomness is used to mitigate the adverse effects of other types of randomness in the system.

Properties of a Formal Method for Prediction of Emergent Behaviors in Swarm-based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouff, Christopher; Vanderbilt, Amy; Hinchey, Mike; Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James

2004-01-01

Autonomous intelligent swarms of satellites are being proposed for NASA missions that have complex behaviors and interactions. The emergent properties of swarms make these missions powerful, but at the same time more difficult to design and assure that proper behaviors will emerge. This paper gives the results of research into formal methods techniques for verification and validation of NASA swarm-based missions. Multiple formal methods were evaluated to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring the behavior of swarms of spacecraft. The NASA ANTS mission was used as an example of swarm intelligence for which to apply the formal methods. This paper will give the evaluation of these formal methods and give partial specifications of the ANTS mission using four selected methods. We then give an evaluation of the methods and the needed properties of a formal method for effective specification and prediction of emergent behavior in swarm-based systems.

Development of a digital clinical pathway for emergency medicine: Lessons from usability testing and implementation failure.

PubMed

Gutenstein, Marc; Pickering, John W; Than, Martin

2018-06-01

Clinical pathways are used to support the management of patients in emergency departments. An existing document-based clinical pathway was used as the foundation on which to design and build a digital clinical pathway for acute chest pain, with the aim of improving clinical calculations, clinician decision-making, documentation, and data collection. Established principles of decision support system design were used to build an application within the existing electronic health record, before testing with a multidisciplinary team of doctors using a think-aloud protocol. Technical authoring was successful, however, usability testing revealed that the user experience and the flexibility of workflow within the application were critical barriers to implementation. Emergency medicine and acute care decision support systems face particular challenges to existing models of linear workflow that should be deliberately addressed in digital pathway design. We make key recommendations regarding digital pathway design in emergency medicine.

Simulation of a spiking neuron circuit using carbon nanotube transistors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Najari, Montassar, E-mail: malnjar@jazanu.edu.sa; IKCE unit, Jazan University, Jazan; El-Grour, Tarek, E-mail: grour-tarek@hotmail.fr

2016-06-10

Neuromorphic engineering is related to the existing analogies between the physical semiconductor VLSI (Very Large Scale Integration) and biophysics. Neuromorphic systems propose to reproduce the structure and function of biological neural systems for transferring their calculation capacity on silicon. Since the innovative research of Carver Mead, the neuromorphic engineering continues to emerge remarkable implementation of biological system. This work presents a simulation of an elementary neuron cell with a carbon nanotube transistor (CNTFET) based technology. The model of the cell neuron which was simulated is called integrate and fire (I&F) model firstly introduced by G. Indiveri in 2009. This circuitmore » has been simulated with CNTFET technology using ADS environment to verify the neuromorphic activities in terms of membrane potential. This work has demonstrated the efficiency of this emergent device; i.e CNTFET on the design of such architecture in terms of power consumption and technology integration density.« less

Real-time measurements of spontaneous breathers and rogue wave events in optical fibre modulation instability

PubMed Central

Närhi, Mikko; Wetzel, Benjamin; Billet, Cyril; Toenger, Shanti; Sylvestre, Thibaut; Merolla, Jean-Marc; Morandotti, Roberto; Dias, Frederic; Genty, Goëry; Dudley, John M.

2016-01-01

Modulation instability is a fundamental process of nonlinear science, leading to the unstable breakup of a constant amplitude solution of a physical system. There has been particular interest in studying modulation instability in the cubic nonlinear Schrödinger equation, a generic model for a host of nonlinear systems including superfluids, fibre optics, plasmas and Bose–Einstein condensates. Modulation instability is also a significant area of study in the context of understanding the emergence of high amplitude events that satisfy rogue wave statistical criteria. Here, exploiting advances in ultrafast optical metrology, we perform real-time measurements in an optical fibre system of the unstable breakup of a continuous wave field, simultaneously characterizing emergent modulation instability breather pulses and their associated statistics. Our results allow quantitative comparison between experiment, modelling and theory, and are expected to open new perspectives on studies of instability dynamics in physics. PMID:27991513

Experimental flights using a small unmanned aircraft system for mapping emergent sandbars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kinzel, Paul J.; Bauer, Mark A.; Feller, Mark R.; Holmquist-Johnson, Christopher; Preston, Todd

2015-01-01

The US Geological Survey and Parallel Inc. conducted experimental flights with the Tarantula Hawk (T-Hawk) unmanned aircraft system (UAS ) at the Dyer and Cottonwood Ranch properties located along reaches of the Platte River near Overton, Nebraska, in July 2013. We equipped the T-Hawk UAS platform with a consumer-grade digital camera to collect imagery of emergent sandbars in the reaches and used photogrammetric software and surveyed control points to generate orthophotographs and digital elevation models (DEMS ) of the reaches. To optimize the image alignment process, we retained and/or eliminated tie points based on their relative errors and spatial resolution, whereby minimizing the total error in the project. Additionally, we collected seven transects that traversed emergent sandbars concurrently with global positioning system location data to evaluate the accuracy of the UAS survey methodology. The root mean square errors for the elevation of emergent points along each transect across the DEMS ranged from 0.04 to 0.12 m. If adequate survey control is established, a UAS combined with photogrammetry software shows promise for accurate monitoring of emergent sandbar morphology and river management activities in short (1–2 km) river reaches.

Sustainable Model for Public Health Emergency Operations Centers for Global Settings.

PubMed

Balajee, S Arunmozhi; Pasi, Omer G; Etoundi, Alain Georges M; Rzeszotarski, Peter; Do, Trang T; Hennessee, Ian; Merali, Sharifa; Alroy, Karen A; Phu, Tran Dac; Mounts, Anthony W

2017-10-01

Capacity to receive, verify, analyze, assess, and investigate public health events is essential for epidemic intelligence. Public health Emergency Operations Centers (PHEOCs) can be epidemic intelligence hubs by 1) having the capacity to receive, analyze, and visualize multiple data streams, including surveillance and 2) maintaining a trained workforce that can analyze and interpret data from real-time emerging events. Such PHEOCs could be physically located within a ministry of health epidemiology, surveillance, or equivalent department rather than exist as a stand-alone space and serve as operational hubs during nonoutbreak times but in emergencies can scale up according to the traditional Incident Command System structure.

Ambient agents: embedded agents for remote control and monitoring using the PANGEA platform.

PubMed

Villarrubia, Gabriel; De Paz, Juan F; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan M

2014-07-31

Ambient intelligence has advanced significantly during the last few years. The incorporation of image processing and artificial intelligence techniques have opened the possibility for such aspects as pattern recognition, thus allowing for a better adaptation of these systems. This study presents a new model of an embedded agent especially designed to be implemented in sensing devices with resource constraints. This new model of an agent is integrated within the PANGEA (Platform for the Automatic Construction of Organiztions of Intelligent Agents) platform, an organizational-based platform, defining a new sensor role in the system and aimed at providing contextual information and interacting with the environment. A case study was developed over the PANGEA platform and designed using different agents and sensors responsible for providing user support at home in the event of incidents or emergencies. The system presented in the case study incorporates agents in Arduino hardware devices with recognition modules and illuminated bands; it also incorporates IP cameras programmed for automatic tracking, which can connect remotely in the event of emergencies. The user wears a bracelet, which contains a simple vibration sensor that can receive notifications about the emergency situation.

Ambient Agents: Embedded Agents for Remote Control and Monitoring Using the PANGEA Platform

PubMed Central

Villarrubia, Gabriel; De Paz, Juan F.; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan M.

2014-01-01

Ambient intelligence has advanced significantly during the last few years. The incorporation of image processing and artificial intelligence techniques have opened the possibility for such aspects as pattern recognition, thus allowing for a better adaptation of these systems. This study presents a new model of an embedded agent especially designed to be implemented in sensing devices with resource constraints. This new model of an agent is integrated within the PANGEA (Platform for the Automatic Construction of Organiztions of Intelligent Agents) platform, an organizational-based platform, defining a new sensor role in the system and aimed at providing contextual information and interacting with the environment. A case study was developed over the PANGEA platform and designed using different agents and sensors responsible for providing user support at home in the event of incidents or emergencies. The system presented in the case study incorporates agents in Arduino hardware devices with recognition modules and illuminated bands; it also incorporates IP cameras programmed for automatic tracking, which can connect remotely in the event of emergencies. The user wears a bracelet, which contains a simple vibration sensor that can receive notifications about the emergency situation. PMID:25090416

Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata.

PubMed

Yao, Zhenwei

2017-12-01

Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhenwei

2017-12-01

Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

Sandboxes for Model-Based Inquiry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brady, Corey; Holbert, Nathan; Soylu, Firat; Novak, Michael; Wilensky, Uri

2015-01-01

In this article, we introduce a class of constructionist learning environments that we call "Emergent Systems Sandboxes" ("ESSs"), which have served as a centerpiece of our recent work in developing curriculum to support scalable model-based learning in classroom settings. ESSs are a carefully specified form of virtual…

Watershed System Model: The Essentials to Model Complex Human-Nature System at the River Basin Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Cheng, Guodong; Lin, Hui; Cai, Ximing; Fang, Miao; Ge, Yingchun; Hu, Xiaoli; Chen, Min; Li, Weiyue

2018-03-01

Watershed system models are urgently needed to understand complex watershed systems and to support integrated river basin management. Early watershed modeling efforts focused on the representation of hydrologic processes, while the next-generation watershed models should represent the coevolution of the water-land-air-plant-human nexus in a watershed and provide capability of decision-making support. We propose a new modeling framework and discuss the know-how approach to incorporate emerging knowledge into integrated models through data exchange interfaces. We argue that the modeling environment is a useful tool to enable effective model integration, as well as create domain-specific models of river basin systems. The grand challenges in developing next-generation watershed system models include but are not limited to providing an overarching framework for linking natural and social sciences, building a scientifically based decision support system, quantifying and controlling uncertainties, and taking advantage of new technologies and new findings in the various disciplines of watershed science. The eventual goal is to build transdisciplinary, scientifically sound, and scale-explicit watershed system models that are to be codesigned by multidisciplinary communities.

[Rapid 3-Dimensional Models of Cerebral Aneurysm for Emergency Surgical Clipping].

PubMed

Konno, Takehiko; Mashiko, Toshihiro; Oguma, Hirofumi; Kaneko, Naoki; Otani, Keisuke; Watanabe, Eiju

2016-08-01

We developed a method for manufacturing solid models of cerebral aneurysms, with a shorter printing time than that involved in conventional methods, using a compact 3D printer with acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS)resin. We further investigated the application and utility of this printing system in emergency clipping surgery. A total of 16 patients diagnosed with acute subarachnoid hemorrhage resulting from cerebral aneurysm rupture were enrolled in the present study. Emergency clipping was performed on the day of hospitalization. Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine(DICOM)data obtained from computed tomography angiography(CTA)scans were edited and converted to stereolithography(STL)file formats, followed by the production of 3D models of the cerebral aneurysm by using the 3D printer. The mean time from hospitalization to the commencement of surgery was 242 min, whereas the mean time required for manufacturing the 3D model was 67 min. The average cost of each 3D model was 194 Japanese Yen. The time required for manufacturing the 3D models shortened to approximately 1 hour with increasing experience of producing 3D models. Favorable impressions for the use of the 3D models in clipping were reported by almost all neurosurgeons included in this study. Although 3D printing is often considered to involve huge costs and long manufacturing time, the method used in the present study requires shorter time and lower costs than conventional methods for manufacturing 3D cerebral aneurysm models, thus making it suitable for use in emergency clipping.

Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi

2015-11-01

Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

Floral Morphogenesis: Stochastic Explorations of a Gene Network Epigenetic Landscape

PubMed Central

Aldana, Maximino; Benítez, Mariana; Cortes-Poza, Yuriria; Espinosa-Soto, Carlos; Hartasánchez, Diego A.; Lotto, R. Beau; Malkin, David; Escalera Santos, Gerardo J.; Padilla-Longoria, Pablo

2008-01-01

In contrast to the classical view of development as a preprogrammed and deterministic process, recent studies have demonstrated that stochastic perturbations of highly non-linear systems may underlie the emergence and stability of biological patterns. Herein, we address the question of whether noise contributes to the generation of the stereotypical temporal pattern in gene expression during flower development. We modeled the regulatory network of organ identity genes in the Arabidopsis thaliana flower as a stochastic system. This network has previously been shown to converge to ten fixed-point attractors, each with gene expression arrays that characterize inflorescence cells and primordial cells of sepals, petals, stamens, and carpels. The network used is binary, and the logical rules that govern its dynamics are grounded in experimental evidence. We introduced different levels of uncertainty in the updating rules of the network. Interestingly, for a level of noise of around 0.5–10%, the system exhibited a sequence of transitions among attractors that mimics the sequence of gene activation configurations observed in real flowers. We also implemented the gene regulatory network as a continuous system using the Glass model of differential equations, that can be considered as a first approximation of kinetic-reaction equations, but which are not necessarily equivalent to the Boolean model. Interestingly, the Glass dynamics recover a temporal sequence of attractors, that is qualitatively similar, although not identical, to that obtained using the Boolean model. Thus, time ordering in the emergence of cell-fate patterns is not an artifact of synchronous updating in the Boolean model. Therefore, our model provides a novel explanation for the emergence and robustness of the ubiquitous temporal pattern of floral organ specification. It also constitutes a new approach to understanding morphogenesis, providing predictions on the population dynamics of cells with different genetic configurations during development. PMID:18978941

Applying dynamic simulation modeling methods in health care delivery research-the SIMULATE checklist: report of the ISPOR simulation modeling emerging good practices task force.

PubMed

Marshall, Deborah A; Burgos-Liz, Lina; IJzerman, Maarten J; Osgood, Nathaniel D; Padula, William V; Higashi, Mitchell K; Wong, Peter K; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Crown, William

2015-01-01

Health care delivery systems are inherently complex, consisting of multiple tiers of interdependent subsystems and processes that are adaptive to changes in the environment and behave in a nonlinear fashion. Traditional health technology assessment and modeling methods often neglect the wider health system impacts that can be critical for achieving desired health system goals and are often of limited usefulness when applied to complex health systems. Researchers and health care decision makers can either underestimate or fail to consider the interactions among the people, processes, technology, and facility designs. Health care delivery system interventions need to incorporate the dynamics and complexities of the health care system context in which the intervention is delivered. This report provides an overview of common dynamic simulation modeling methods and examples of health care system interventions in which such methods could be useful. Three dynamic simulation modeling methods are presented to evaluate system interventions for health care delivery: system dynamics, discrete event simulation, and agent-based modeling. In contrast to conventional evaluations, a dynamic systems approach incorporates the complexity of the system and anticipates the upstream and downstream consequences of changes in complex health care delivery systems. This report assists researchers and decision makers in deciding whether these simulation methods are appropriate to address specific health system problems through an eight-point checklist referred to as the SIMULATE (System, Interactions, Multilevel, Understanding, Loops, Agents, Time, Emergence) tool. It is a primer for researchers and decision makers working in health care delivery and implementation sciences who face complex challenges in delivering effective and efficient care that can be addressed with system interventions. On reviewing this report, the readers should be able to identify whether these simulation modeling methods are appropriate to answer the problem they are addressing and to recognize the differences of these methods from other modeling approaches used typically in health technology assessment applications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ultrasonic Motors (USM) - an emerging actuation technology for planetary applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bao, X.; Das, H.

2000-01-01

A hybrid model that addressed a complete ultrasonic motor as a system was developed. The model allows using powerful commercial FE package to express dynamic characteristics of the stator and the rotor in engineering practice. An analog model couples the finite element models for the stator and rotor for the stator-interface layer-rotor syste. The model provides reasonably accurate results for CAD.

Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Kellie-Smith, Owen; Cox, Peter M

2011-03-13

Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.

Study of system-size effects on the emergent magnetic monopoles and Dirac strings in artificial kagome spin ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon, Alejandro

2012-02-01

In this work we study the dynamical properties of a finite array of nanomagnets in artificial kagome spin ice at room temperature. The dynamic response of the array of nanomagnets is studied by implementing a ``frustrated celular aut'omata'' (FCA), based in the charge model. In this model, each dipole is replaced by a dumbbell of two opposite charges, which are situated at the neighbouring vertices of the honeycomb lattice. The FCA simulations, allow us to study in real-time and deterministic way, the dynamic of the system, with minimal computational resource. The update function is defined according to the coordination number of vertices in the system. Our results show that for a set geometric parameters of the array of nanomagnets, the system exhibits high density of Dirac strings and high density emergent magnetic monopoles. A study of the effect of disorder in the arrangement of nanomagnets is incorporated in this work.

Emergent of Burden Sharing of Robots with Emotion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusano, Takuya; Nozawa, Akio; Ide, Hideto

Cooperated multi robots system has much dominance in comparison with single robot system. Multi robots system is able to adapt to various circumstances and has a flexibility for variation of tasks. Robots are necessary that build a cooperative relations and acts as an organization to attain a purpose in multi robots system. Then, group behavior of insects which doesn't have advanced ability is observed. For example, ants called a sociality insect emerge systematic activities by the interaction with using a very simple way. Though ants make a communication with chemical matter, a human plans a communication by words and gestures. In this paper, we paid attention to the interaction based on psychological viewpoint. And a human's emotion model was used for the parameter which became a base of the motion planning of robots. These robots were made to do both-way action in test field with obstacle. As a result, a burden sharing like guide or carrier was seen even though those had a simple setup.

Recycling Frank: Spontaneous emergence of homochirality in noncatalytic systems

PubMed Central

Plasson, Raphaël; Bersini, Hugues; Commeyras, Auguste

2004-01-01

In this work, we introduce a prebiotically relevant protometabolic pattern corresponding to an engine of deracemization by using an external energy source. The spontaneous formation of a nonracemic mixture of chiral compounds can be observed in out-of-equilibrium systems via a symmetry-breaking phenomenon. This observation is possible thanks to chirally selective autocatalytic reactions (Frank's model) [Frank, F. C. (1953) Biochim. Biophys. Acta 11, 459–463]. We show that the use of a Frank-like model in a recycled system composed of reversible chemical reactions, rather than the classical irreversible system, allows for the emergence of a synergetic autoinduction from simple reactions, without any autocatalytic or even catalytic reaction. This model is described as a theoretical framework, based on the stereoselective reactivity of preexisting chiral monomeric building blocks (polymerization, epimerization, and depolymerization) maintained out of equilibrium by a continuous energy income, via an activation reaction. It permits the self-conversion of all monomeric subunits into a single chiral configuration. Real prebiotic systems of amino acid derivatives can be described on this basis. They are shown to be able to spontaneously reach a stable nonracemic state in a few centuries. In such systems, the presence of epimerization reactions is no more destructive, but in contrast is the central driving force of the unstabilization of the racemic state. PMID:15548617

On-board emergent scheduling of autonomous spacecraft payload operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindley, Craig A.

1994-01-01

This paper describes a behavioral competency level concerned with emergent scheduling of spacecraft payload operations. The level is part of a multi-level subsumption architecture model for autonomous spacecraft, and it functions as an action selection system for processing a spacecraft commands that can be considered as 'plans-as-communication'. Several versions of the selection mechanism are described, and their robustness is qualitatively compared.

A system for the model based emergency detection and communication for the telerehabilitation training of cardiopulmonary patients.

PubMed

Helmer, Axel; Kretschmer, Friedrich; Deparade, Riana; Song, Bianying; Meis, Markus; Hein, Andreas; Marschollek, Michael; Tegtbur, Uwe

2012-01-01

Cardiopulmonary diseases affect millions of people and cause high costs in health care systems worldwide. Patients should perform regular endurance exercises to stabilize their health state and prevent further impairment. However, patients are often uncertain about the level of intensity they should exercise in their current condition. The cost of continuous monitoring for these training sessions in clinics is high and additionally requires the patient to travel to a clinic for each single session. Performing the rehabilitation training at home can raise compliance and reduce costs. To ensure safe telerehabilitation training and to enable patients to control their performance and health state, detection of abnormal events during training is a critical prerequisite. Therefore, we created a model that predicts the heart rate of cardiopulmonary patients and that can be used to detect and avoid abnormal health states. To enable external feedback and an immediate reaction in case of a critical situation, the patient should have the possibility to configure the system to communicate warnings and emergency events to clinical and non-clinical actors. To fulfill this task, we coupled a personal health record (PHR) with a new component that extends the classic home emergency systems. The PHR is also used for a training schedule definition that makes use of the predictive HR model. We used statistical methods to evaluate the prediction model and found that our prediction error of 3.2 heart beats per minute is precise enough to enable a detection of critical states. The concept for the communication of alerts was evaluated through focus group interviews with domain experts who judged that it fulfills the needs of potential users.

Comprehensive Plans for a Culture-Driven Local Development: Emergence as a Tool for Understanding Social Impacts of Projects on Built Cultural Heritage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torre, Stefano Della; Canziani, Andrea

Cultural Heritage is comprehensible within an integrated vision, involving economic, cultural and ethic values, typical of not renewable resources. It is an open system that doesn't correspond just to monuments but is made by the complex interactions of a built environment. The systemic relationships between cultural goods (object, building, landscape), and their environmental context have to be considered of the same importance of the systemic relations established with stakeholders/observers. A first partial answer to Cultural Heritage systemic nature has been the creation of "networks" of cultural institutions, that afterwards have been evolving in "cultural systems" and have been recently followed by "cultural districts". The Cultural District model put forward a precise application for the theory of emergence. But its systemic nature presents also some problematical identifications. For Cultural Heritage the point is not any more limited to "direct" actions. We must consider stakeholders/observers, feedback circuits, emergence of activation of social/cultural/human capital, more than that linked to the architectural design process.

The evolutions of medical building network structure for emerging infectious disease protection and control.

PubMed

Liu, Nan; Zhang, Hongzhe; Zhang, Shanshan

2014-12-01

Emerging infectious disease is one of the most minatory threats in modern society. A perfect medical building network system need to be established to protect and control emerging infectious disease. Although in China a preliminary medical building network is already set up with disease control center, the infectious disease hospital, infectious diseases department in general hospital and basic medical institutions, there are still many defects in this system, such as simple structural model, weak interoperability among subsystems, and poor capability of the medical building to adapt to outbreaks of infectious disease. Based on the characteristics of infectious diseases, the whole process of its prevention and control and the comprehensive influence factors, three-dimensional medical architecture network system is proposed as an inevitable trend. In this conception of medical architecture network structure, the evolutions are mentioned, such as from simple network system to multilayer space network system, from static network to dynamic network, and from mechanical network to sustainable network. Ultimately, a more adaptable and corresponsive medical building network system will be established and argued in this paper.

Evolutionary Computation for the Identification of Emergent Behavior in Autonomous Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terrile, Richard J.; Guillaume, Alexandre

2009-01-01

Over the past several years the Center for Evolutionary Computation and Automated Design at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has developed a technique based on Evolutionary Computational Methods (ECM) that allows for the automated optimization of complex computationally modeled systems. An important application of this technique is for the identification of emergent behaviors in autonomous systems. Mobility platforms such as rovers or airborne vehicles are now being designed with autonomous mission controllers that can find trajectories over a solution space that is larger than can reasonably be tested. It is critical to identify control behaviors that are not predicted and can have surprising results (both good and bad). These emergent behaviors need to be identified, characterized and either incorporated into or isolated from the acceptable range of control characteristics. We use cluster analysis of automatically retrieved solutions to identify isolated populations of solutions with divergent behaviors.

Language Emergence

PubMed Central

Brentari, Diane; Goldin-Meadow, Susan

2017-01-01

Language emergence describes moments in historical time when nonlinguistic systems become linguistic. Because language can be invented de novo in the manual modality, this offers insight into the emergence of language in ways that the oral modality cannot. Here we focus on homesign, gestures developed by deaf individuals who cannot acquire spoken language and have not been exposed to sign language. We contrast homesign with (a) gestures that hearing individuals produce when they speak, as these cospeech gestures are a potential source of input to homesigners, and (b) established sign languages, as these codified systems display the linguistic structure that homesign has the potential to assume. We find that the manual modality takes on linguistic properties, even in the hands of a child not exposed to a language model. But it grows into full-blown language only with the support of a community that transmits the system to the next generation.* PMID:29034268

Human pluripotent stem cells: an emerging model in developmental biology

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zengrong; Huangfu, Danwei

2013-01-01

Developmental biology has long benefited from studies of classic model organisms. Recently, human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs), including human embryonic stem cells and human induced pluripotent stem cells, have emerged as a new model system that offers unique advantages for developmental studies. Here, we discuss how studies of hPSCs can complement classic approaches using model organisms, and how hPSCs can be used to recapitulate aspects of human embryonic development ‘in a dish’. We also summarize some of the recently developed genetic tools that greatly facilitate the interrogation of gene function during hPSC differentiation. With the development of high-throughput screening technologies, hPSCs have the potential to revolutionize gene discovery in mammalian development. PMID:23362344

Computing life: Add logos to biology and bios to physics.

PubMed

Kolodkin, Alexey; Simeonidis, Evangelos; Westerhoff, Hans V

2013-04-01

This paper discusses the interrelations between physics and biology. Particularly, we analyse the approaches for reconstructing the emergent properties of physical or biological systems. We propose approaches to scale emergence according to the degree of state-dependency of the system's component properties. Since the component properties of biological systems are state-dependent to a high extent, biological emergence should be considered as very strong emergence - i.e. its reconstruction would require a lot of information about state-dependency of its component properties. However, due to its complexity and volume, this information cannot be handled in the naked human brain, or on the back of an envelope. To solve this problem, biological emergence can be reconstructed in silico based on experimentally determined rate laws and parameter values of the living cell. According to some rough calculations, the silicon human might comprise the mathematical descriptions of around 10(5) interactions. This is not a small number, but taking into account the exponentially increase of computational power, it should not prove to be our principal limitation. The bigger challenges will be located in different areas. For example they may be related to the observer effect - the limitation to measuring a system's component properties without affecting the system. Another obstacle may be hidden in the tradition of "shaving away" all "unnecessary" assumptions (the so-called Occam's razor) that, in fact, reflects the intention to model the system as simply as possible and thus to deem the emergence to be less strong than it possibly is. We argue here that that Occam's razor should be replaced with the law of completeness. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The transition to emerging revenue models.

PubMed

Harris, John M; Hemnani, Rashi

2013-04-01

A financial assessment aimed at gauging the true impact of the healthcare industry's new value-based payment models for a health system should begin with separate analyses of the following: The direct contract results, The impact of volume changes on net income, The impact of operational improvements, Net income at risk from competitor actions. The results of these four analyses then should be evaluated in combination to identify the ultimate impact of the new revenue models on the health system's bottom line.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology: A Case for Disease Models.

PubMed

Musante, C J; Ramanujan, S; Schmidt, B J; Ghobrial, O G; Lu, J; Heatherington, A C

2017-01-01

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) has emerged as an innovative approach in model-informed drug discovery and development, supporting program decisions from exploratory research through late-stage clinical trials. In this commentary, we discuss the unique value of disease-scale "platform" QSP models that are amenable to reuse and repurposing to support diverse clinical decisions in ways distinct from other pharmacometrics strategies. © 2016 The Authors Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Terrestrial biogeochemical cycles - Global interactions with the atmosphere and hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimel, David S.; Parton, William J.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.

1991-01-01

A review is presented of developments in ecosystem theory, remote sensing, and geographic information systems that support new endeavors in spatial modeling. A paradigm has emerged to predict ecosystem behavior based on understanding responses to multiple resources. Ecosystem models couple primary production to decomposition and nutrient availability utilizing this paradigm. It is indicated that coupling of transport and ecosystem processes alters the behavior of earth system components (terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology, and the atmosphere) from that of an uncoupled model.

ℤ3 parafermionic chain emerging from Yang-Baxter equation.

PubMed

Yu, Li-Wei; Ge, Mo-Lin

2016-02-23

We construct the 1D ℤ3 parafermionic model based on the solution of Yang-Baxter equation and express the model by three types of fermions. It is shown that the ℤ3 parafermionic chain possesses both triple degenerate ground states and non-trivial topological winding number. Hence, the ℤ3 parafermionic model is a direct generalization of 1D ℤ2 Kitaev model. Both the ℤ2 and ℤ3 model can be obtained from Yang-Baxter equation. On the other hand, to show the algebra of parafermionic tripling intuitively, we define a new 3-body Hamiltonian H123 based on Yang-Baxter equation. Different from the Majorana doubling, the H123 holds triple degeneracy at each of energy levels. The triple degeneracy is protected by two symmetry operators of the system, ω-parity P [formula in text] and emergent parafermionic operator Γ, which are the generalizations of parity PM and emergent Majorana operator in Lee-Wilczek model, respectively. Both the ℤ3 parafermionic model and H123 can be viewed as SU(3) models in color space. In comparison with the Majorana models for SU(2), it turns out that the SU(3) models are truly the generalization of Majorana models resultant from Yang-Baxter equation.

Emerging systems biology approaches in nanotoxicology: Towards a mechanism-based understanding of nanomaterial hazard and risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costa, Pedro M.; Fadeel, Bengt, E-mail: Bengt.Fade

Engineered nanomaterials are being developed for a variety of technological applications. However, the increasing use of nanomaterials in society has led to concerns about their potential adverse effects on human health and the environment. During the first decade of nanotoxicological research, the realization has emerged that effective risk assessment of the multitudes of new nanomaterials would benefit from a comprehensive understanding of their toxicological mechanisms, which is difficult to achieve with traditional, low-throughput, single end-point oriented approaches. Therefore, systems biology approaches are being progressively applied within the nano(eco)toxicological sciences. This novel paradigm implies that the study of biological systems shouldmore » be integrative resulting in quantitative and predictive models of nanomaterial behaviour in a biological system. To this end, global ‘omics’ approaches with which to assess changes in genes, proteins, metabolites, etc. are deployed allowing for computational modelling of the biological effects of nanomaterials. Here, we highlight omics and systems biology studies in nanotoxicology, aiming towards the implementation of a systems nanotoxicology and mechanism-based risk assessment of nanomaterials. - Highlights: • Systems nanotoxicology is a multi-disciplinary approach to quantitative modelling. • Transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics remain the most common methods. • Global “omics” techniques should be coupled to computational modelling approaches. • The discovery of nano-specific toxicity pathways and biomarkers is a prioritized goal. • Overall, experimental nanosafety research must endeavour reproducibility and relevance.« less

Three-dimensional Virtual Simulation of Oil Spill of Yangtze River in Chongqing Area Based on Emergency Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuzhe; Huang, Liwen

the river of Yangtze River in Chongqing area is continuous curved. Hydrology and channel situation is complex, and the transportation is busy. With the increasing of shipments of hazardous chemicals year by year, oil spill accident risk is rising. So establishment of three-dimensional virtual simulation of oil spill and its application in decision-making has become an urgent task. This paper detailed the process of three-dimensional virtual simulation of oil spill and established a system of three-dimensional virtual Simulation of oil spill of Yangtze River in Chongqing area by establishing an oil spill model of the Chongqing area based on oil particles model, and the system has been used in emergency decision to provide assistance for the oil spill response.

Coping with Variability in Model-Based Systems Engineering: An Experience in Green Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trujillo, Salvador; Garate, Jose Miguel; Lopez-Herrejon, Roberto Erick; Mendialdua, Xabier; Rosado, Albert; Egyed, Alexander; Krueger, Charles W.; de Sosa, Josune

Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging engineering discipline whose driving motivation is to provide support throughout the entire system life cycle. MBSE not only addresses the engineering of software systems but also their interplay with physical systems. Quite frequently, successful systems need to be customized to cater for the concrete and specific needs of customers, end-users, and other stakeholders. To effectively meet this demand, it is vital to have in place mechanisms to cope with the variability, the capacity to change, that such customization requires. In this paper we describe our experience in modeling variability using SysML, a leading MBSE language, for developing a product line of wind turbine systems used for the generation of electricity.

Emerging Cyber Infrastructure for NASA's Large-Scale Climate Data Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, D.; Spear, C.; Bowen, M. K.; Thompson, J. H.; Hu, F.; Yang, C. P.; Pierce, D.

2016-12-01

The resolution of NASA climate and weather simulations have grown dramatically over the past few years with the highest-fidelity models reaching down to 1.5 KM global resolutions. With each doubling of the resolution, the resulting data sets grow by a factor of eight in size. As the climate and weather models push the envelope even further, a new infrastructure to store data and provide large-scale data analytics is necessary. The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) has deployed the Data Analytics Storage Service (DASS) that combines scalable storage with the ability to perform in-situ analytics. Within this system, large, commonly used data sets are stored in a POSIX file system (write once/read many); examples of data stored include Landsat, MERRA2, observing system simulation experiments, and high-resolution downscaled reanalysis. The total size of this repository is on the order of 15 petabytes of storage. In addition to the POSIX file system, the NCCS has deployed file system connectors to enable emerging analytics built on top of the Hadoop File System (HDFS) to run on the same storage servers within the DASS. Coupled with a custom spatiotemporal indexing approach, users can now run emerging analytical operations built on MapReduce and Spark on the same data files stored within the POSIX file system without having to make additional copies. This presentation will discuss the architecture of this system and present benchmark performance measurements from traditional TeraSort and Wordcount to large-scale climate analytical operations on NetCDF data.

Modelling biological behaviours with the unified modelling language: an immunological case study and critique.

PubMed

Read, Mark; Andrews, Paul S; Timmis, Jon; Kumar, Vipin

2014-10-06

We present a framework to assist the diagrammatic modelling of complex biological systems using the unified modelling language (UML). The framework comprises three levels of modelling, ranging in scope from the dynamics of individual model entities to system-level emergent properties. By way of an immunological case study of the mouse disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, we show how the framework can be used to produce models that capture and communicate the biological system, detailing how biological entities, interactions and behaviours lead to higher-level emergent properties observed in the real world. We demonstrate how the UML can be successfully applied within our framework, and provide a critique of UML's ability to capture concepts fundamental to immunology and biology more generally. We show how specialized, well-explained diagrams with less formal semantics can be used where no suitable UML formalism exists. We highlight UML's lack of expressive ability concerning cyclic feedbacks in cellular networks, and the compounding concurrency arising from huge numbers of stochastic, interacting agents. To compensate for this, we propose several additional relationships for expressing these concepts in UML's activity diagram. We also demonstrate the ambiguous nature of class diagrams when applied to complex biology, and question their utility in modelling such dynamic systems. Models created through our framework are non-executable, and expressly free of simulation implementation concerns. They are a valuable complement and precursor to simulation specifications and implementations, focusing purely on thoroughly exploring the biology, recording hypotheses and assumptions, and serve as a communication medium detailing exactly how a simulation relates to the real biology.

Modelling biological behaviours with the unified modelling language: an immunological case study and critique

PubMed Central

Read, Mark; Andrews, Paul S.; Timmis, Jon; Kumar, Vipin

2014-01-01

We present a framework to assist the diagrammatic modelling of complex biological systems using the unified modelling language (UML). The framework comprises three levels of modelling, ranging in scope from the dynamics of individual model entities to system-level emergent properties. By way of an immunological case study of the mouse disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, we show how the framework can be used to produce models that capture and communicate the biological system, detailing how biological entities, interactions and behaviours lead to higher-level emergent properties observed in the real world. We demonstrate how the UML can be successfully applied within our framework, and provide a critique of UML's ability to capture concepts fundamental to immunology and biology more generally. We show how specialized, well-explained diagrams with less formal semantics can be used where no suitable UML formalism exists. We highlight UML's lack of expressive ability concerning cyclic feedbacks in cellular networks, and the compounding concurrency arising from huge numbers of stochastic, interacting agents. To compensate for this, we propose several additional relationships for expressing these concepts in UML's activity diagram. We also demonstrate the ambiguous nature of class diagrams when applied to complex biology, and question their utility in modelling such dynamic systems. Models created through our framework are non-executable, and expressly free of simulation implementation concerns. They are a valuable complement and precursor to simulation specifications and implementations, focusing purely on thoroughly exploring the biology, recording hypotheses and assumptions, and serve as a communication medium detailing exactly how a simulation relates to the real biology. PMID:25142524

Evolutionary Dynamics of Nitrogen Fixation in the Legume–Rhizobia Symbiosis

PubMed Central

Fujita, Hironori; Aoki, Seishiro; Kawaguchi, Masayoshi

2014-01-01

The stabilization of host–symbiont mutualism against the emergence of parasitic individuals is pivotal to the evolution of cooperation. One of the most famous symbioses occurs between legumes and their colonizing rhizobia, in which rhizobia extract nutrients (or benefits) from legume plants while supplying them with nitrogen resources produced by nitrogen fixation (or costs). Natural environments, however, are widely populated by ineffective rhizobia that extract benefits without paying costs and thus proliferate more efficiently than nitrogen-fixing cooperators. How and why this mutualism becomes stabilized and evolutionarily persists has been extensively discussed. To better understand the evolutionary dynamics of this symbiosis system, we construct a simple model based on the continuous snowdrift game with multiple interacting players. We investigate the model using adaptive dynamics and numerical simulations. We find that symbiotic evolution depends on the cost–benefit balance, and that cheaters widely emerge when the cost and benefit are similar in strength. In this scenario, the persistence of the symbiotic system is compatible with the presence of cheaters. This result suggests that the symbiotic relationship is robust to the emergence of cheaters, and may explain the prevalence of cheating rhizobia in nature. In addition, various stabilizing mechanisms, such as partner fidelity feedback, partner choice, and host sanction, can reinforce the symbiotic relationship by affecting the fitness of symbionts in various ways. This result suggests that the symbiotic relationship is cooperatively stabilized by various mechanisms. In addition, mixed nodule populations are thought to encourage cheater emergence, but our model predicts that, in certain situations, cheaters can disappear from such populations. These findings provide a theoretical basis of the evolutionary dynamics of legume–rhizobia symbioses, which is extendable to other single-host, multiple-colonizer systems. PMID:24691447

The Emerging Role of Metabotropic Glutamate Receptors in the Pathophysiology of Chronic Stress-Related Disorders

PubMed Central

Peterlik, Daniel; Flor, Peter J.; Uschold-Schmidt, Nicole

2016-01-01

Chronic stress-related psychiatric conditions such as anxiety, depression, and alcohol abuse are an enormous public health concern. The etiology of these pathologies is complex, with psychosocial stressors being among the most frequently discussed risk factors. The brain glutamatergic neurotransmitter system has often been found involved in behaviors and pathophysiologies resulting from acute stress and fear. Despite this, relatively little is known about the role of glutamatergic system components in chronic psychosocial stress, neither in rodents nor in humans. Recently, drug discovery efforts at the metabotropic receptor subtypes of the glutamatergic system (mGlu1-8 receptors) led to the identification of pharmacological tools with emerging potential in psychiatric conditions. But again, the contribution of individual mGlu subtypes to the manifestation of physiological, molecular, and behavioral consequences of chronic psychosocial stress remains still largely unaddressed. The current review will describe animal models typically used to analyze acute and particularly chronic stress conditions, including models of psychosocial stress, and there we will discuss the emerging roles for mGlu receptor subtypes. Indeed, accumulating evidence indicates relevance and potential therapeutic usefulness of mGlu2/3 ligands and mGlu5 receptor antagonists in chronic stress-related disorders. In addition, a role for further mechanisms, e.g. mGlu7-selective compounds, is beginning to emerge. These mechanisms are important to be analyzed in chronic psychosocial stress paradigms, e.g. in the chronic subordinate colony housing (CSC) model. We summarize the early results and discuss necessary future investigations, especially for mGlu5 and mGlu7 receptor blockers, which might serve to suggest improved therapeutic strategies to treat stress-related disorders. PMID:27296643

Zymomonas mobilis as a model system for production of biofuels and biochemicals

DOE PAGES

Yang, Shihui; Fei, Qiang; Zhang, Yaoping; ...

2016-09-15

Zymomonas mobilis is a natural ethanologen with many desirable industrial biocatalyst characteristics. In this review, we will discuss work to develop Z. mobilis as a model system for biofuel production from the perspectives of substrate utilization, development for industrial robustness, potential product spectrum, strain evaluation and fermentation strategies. Lastly, this review also encompasses perspectives related to classical genetic tools and emerging technologies in this context.

Zymomonas mobilis as a model system for production of biofuels and biochemicals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Shihui; Fei, Qiang; Zhang, Yaoping

Zymomonas mobilis is a natural ethanologen with many desirable industrial biocatalyst characteristics. In this review, we will discuss work to develop Z. mobilis as a model system for biofuel production from the perspectives of substrate utilization, development for industrial robustness, potential product spectrum, strain evaluation and fermentation strategies. Lastly, this review also encompasses perspectives related to classical genetic tools and emerging technologies in this context.

Non-Linear Dynamics and Emergence in Laboratory Fusion Plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hnat, B.

2011-09-22

Turbulent behaviour of laboratory fusion plasma system is modelled using extended Hasegawa-Wakatani equations. The model is solved numerically using finite difference techniques. We discuss non-linear effects in such a system in the presence of the micro-instabilities, specifically a drift wave instability. We explore particle dynamics in different range of parameters and show that the transport changes from diffusive to non-diffusive when large directional flows are developed.

ScaleNet: A literature-based model of scale insect biology and systematics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Scale insects (Hemiptera: Coccoidea) are small herbivorous insects found in all continents except Antarctica. They are extremely invasive, and many species are serious agricultural pests. They are also emerging models for studies of the evolution of genetic systems, endosymbiosis, and plant-insect i...

Systems microscopy: an emerging strategy for the life sciences.

PubMed

Lock, John G; Strömblad, Staffan

2010-05-01

Dynamic cellular processes occurring in time and space are fundamental to all physiology and disease. To understand complex and dynamic cellular processes therefore demands the capacity to record and integrate quantitative multiparametric data from the four spatiotemporal dimensions within which living cells self-organize, and to subsequently use these data for the mathematical modeling of cellular systems. To this end, a raft of complementary developments in automated fluorescence microscopy, cell microarray platforms, quantitative image analysis and data mining, combined with multivariate statistics and computational modeling, now coalesce to produce a new research strategy, "systems microscopy", which facilitates systems biology analyses of living cells. Systems microscopy provides the crucial capacities to simultaneously extract and interrogate multiparametric quantitative data at resolution levels ranging from the molecular to the cellular, thereby elucidating a more comprehensive and richly integrated understanding of complex and dynamic cellular systems. The unique capacities of systems microscopy suggest that it will become a vital cornerstone of systems biology, and here we describe the current status and future prospects of this emerging field, as well as outlining some of the key challenges that remain to be overcome. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Spread of European Models of Engineering Education: The Challenges Faced in Emerging Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gardelle, Linda; Cardona Gil, Emmanuel; Benguerna, Mohamed; Bolat, Altangul; Naran, Boldmaa

2017-01-01

The major European models of engineering training (the German, the British and the French model) spread throughout the world during the twentieth century. Historical heritage, cultural proximity and languages explain the open expression of faithfulness to one system in some countries. In these countries, the national standards inherited are now…

Human systems immunology: hypothesis-based modeling and unbiased data-driven approaches.

PubMed

Arazi, Arnon; Pendergraft, William F; Ribeiro, Ruy M; Perelson, Alan S; Hacohen, Nir

2013-10-31

Systems immunology is an emerging paradigm that aims at a more systematic and quantitative understanding of the immune system. Two major approaches have been utilized to date in this field: unbiased data-driven modeling to comprehensively identify molecular and cellular components of a system and their interactions; and hypothesis-based quantitative modeling to understand the operating principles of a system by extracting a minimal set of variables and rules underlying them. In this review, we describe applications of the two approaches to the study of viral infections and autoimmune diseases in humans, and discuss possible ways by which these two approaches can synergize when applied to human immunology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department.

PubMed

Yousefi, M; Ferreira, R P M

2017-03-30

This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager) allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc.) to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department.

Management and Outcomes of Acute Surgical Patients at a District Hospital in Uganda with Non-physician Emergency Clinicians.

PubMed

Dresser, Caleb; Periyanayagam, Usha; Dreifuss, Brad; Wangoda, Robert; Luyimbaazi, Julius; Bisanzo, Mark

2017-09-01

Acute surgical care services in rural Sub-Saharan Africa suffer from human resource and systemic constraints. Developing emergency care systems and task sharing aspects of acute surgical care addresses many of these issues. This paper investigates the degree to which specialized non-physicians practicing in a dedicated Emergency Department contribute to the effective and efficient management of acute surgical patients. This is a retrospective review of an electronic quality assurance database of patients presenting to an Emergency Department in rural Uganda staffed by non-physician clinicians trained in emergency care. Relevant de-identified clinical data on patients admitted directly to the operating theater from 2011 to 2014 were analyzed in Microsoft Excel. Overall, 112 Emergency Department patients were included in the analysis and 96% received some form of laboratory testing, imaging, medication, or procedure in the ED, prior to surgery. 72% of surgical patients referred by ED received preoperative antibiotics, and preoperative fluid resuscitation was initiated in 65%. Disposition to operating theater was accomplished within 3 h of presentation for 73% of patients. 79% were successfully followed up to assess outcomes at 72 h. 92% of those with successful follow-up reported improvement in their clinical condition. The confirmed mortality rate was 5%. Specialized non-physician clinicians practicing in a dedicated Emergency Department can perform resuscitation, bedside imaging and laboratory studies to aid in diagnosis of acute surgical patients and arrange transfer to an operating theater in an efficient fashion. This model has the potential to sustainably address structural and human resources problems inherent to Sub-Saharan Africa's current acute surgical care model and will benefit from further study and expansion.

An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department

PubMed Central

Yousefi, M.; Ferreira, R.P.M.

2017-01-01

This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager) allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc.) to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department. PMID:28380196

Dyadic brain modelling, mirror systems and the ontogenetic ritualization of ape gesture

PubMed Central

Arbib, Michael; Ganesh, Varsha; Gasser, Brad

2014-01-01

The paper introduces dyadic brain modelling, offering both a framework for modelling the brains of interacting agents and a general framework for simulating and visualizing the interactions generated when the brains (and the two bodies) are each coded up in computational detail. It models selected neural mechanisms in ape brains supportive of social interactions, including putative mirror neuron systems inspired by macaque neurophysiology but augmented by increased access to proprioceptive state. Simulation results for a reduced version of the model show ritualized gesture emerging from interactions between a simulated child and mother ape. PMID:24778382

Dyadic brain modelling, mirror systems and the ontogenetic ritualization of ape gesture.

PubMed

Arbib, Michael; Ganesh, Varsha; Gasser, Brad

2014-01-01

The paper introduces dyadic brain modelling, offering both a framework for modelling the brains of interacting agents and a general framework for simulating and visualizing the interactions generated when the brains (and the two bodies) are each coded up in computational detail. It models selected neural mechanisms in ape brains supportive of social interactions, including putative mirror neuron systems inspired by macaque neurophysiology but augmented by increased access to proprioceptive state. Simulation results for a reduced version of the model show ritualized gesture emerging from interactions between a simulated child and mother ape.

The painted turtle, Chrysemys picta: a model system for vertebrate evolution, ecology, and human health.

PubMed

Valenzuela, Nicole

2009-07-01

Painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) are representatives of a vertebrate clade whose biology and phylogenetic position hold a key to our understanding of fundamental aspects of vertebrate evolution. These features make them an ideal emerging model system. Extensive ecological and physiological research provide the context in which to place new research advances in evolutionary genetics, genomics, evolutionary developmental biology, and ecological developmental biology which are enabled by current resources, such as a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) library of C. picta, and the imminent development of additional ones such as genome sequences and cDNA and expressed sequence tag (EST) libraries. This integrative approach will allow the research community to continue making advances to provide functional and evolutionary explanations for the lability of biological traits found not only among reptiles but vertebrates in general. Moreover, because humans and reptiles share a common ancestor, and given the ease of using nonplacental vertebrates in experimental biology compared with mammalian embryos, painted turtles are also an emerging model system for biomedical research. For example, painted turtles have been studied to understand many biological responses to overwintering and anoxia, as potential sentinels for environmental xenobiotics, and as a model to decipher the ecology and evolution of sexual development and reproduction. Thus, painted turtles are an excellent reptilian model system for studies with human health, environmental, ecological, and evolutionary significance.

Ambulatory Healthcare Utilization in the United States: A System Dynamics Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diaz, Rafael; Behr, Joshua G.; Tulpule, Mandar

2011-01-01

Ambulatory health care needs within the United States are served by a wide range of hospitals, clinics, and private practices. The Emergency Department (ED) functions as an important point of supply for ambulatory healthcare services. Growth in our aging populations as well as changes stemming from broader healthcare reform are expected to continue trend in congestion and increasing demand for ED services. While congestion is, in part, a manifestation of unmatched demand, the state of the alignment between the demand for, and supply of, emergency department services affects quality of care and profitability. The central focus of this research is to provide an explanation of the salient factors at play within the dynamic demand-supply tensions within which ambulatory care is provided within an Emergency Department. A System Dynamics (SO) simulation model is used to capture the complexities among the intricate balance and conditional effects at play within the demand-supply emergency department environment. Conceptual clarification of the forces driving the elements within the system , quantifying these elements, and empirically capturing the interaction among these elements provides actionable knowledge for operational and strategic decision-making.

Design and Configuration of a Medical Imaging Systems Computer Laboratory Syllabus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selver, M. Alper

2016-01-01

Medical imaging systems (MIS) constitute an important emergent subdiscipline of engineering studies. In the context of electrical and electronics engineering (EEE) education, MIS courses cover physics, instrumentation, data acquisition, image formation, modeling, and quality assessment of various modalities. Many well-structured MIS courses are…

Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele

2017-04-01

Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

Legislative and Policy Developments and Imperatives for Advancing the Primary Care Behavioral Health (PCBH) Model.

PubMed

Freeman, Dennis S; Hudgins, Cathy; Hornberger, Joel

2018-06-01

The Primary Care Behavioral Health (PCBH) practice model continues to gain converts among primary care and behavioral health professionals as the evidence supporting its effectiveness continues to accumulate. Despite a growing number of practices and organizations using the model effectively, widespread implementation has been hampered by outmoded policies and regulatory barriers. As policymakers and legislators begin to recognize the contributions that PCBH model services make to the care of complex patients and the expansion of access to those in need of behavioral health interventions, some encouraging policy initiatives are emerging and the policy environment is becoming more favorable to implementation of the PCBH model. This article outlines the necessity for policy change, exposing the policy issues and barriers that serve to limit the practice of the PCBH model; highlights innovative approaches some states are taking to foster integrated practice; and discusses the compatibility of the PCBH model with the nation's health care reform agenda. Psychologists have emerged as leaders in the design and implementation of PCBH model integration and are encouraged to continue to advance the model through the demonstration of efficient and effective clinical practice, participation in the expansion of an appropriately trained workforce, and advocacy for the inclusion of this practice model in emerging healthcare systems and value-based payment methodologies.

Robust mechanobiological behavior emerges in heterogeneous myosin systems.

PubMed

Egan, Paul F; Moore, Jeffrey R; Ehrlicher, Allen J; Weitz, David A; Schunn, Christian; Cagan, Jonathan; LeDuc, Philip

2017-09-26

Biological complexity presents challenges for understanding natural phenomenon and engineering new technologies, particularly in systems with molecular heterogeneity. Such complexity is present in myosin motor protein systems, and computational modeling is essential for determining how collective myosin interactions produce emergent system behavior. We develop a computational approach for altering myosin isoform parameters and their collective organization, and support predictions with in vitro experiments of motility assays with α-actinins as molecular force sensors. The computational approach models variations in single myosin molecular structure, system organization, and force stimuli to predict system behavior for filament velocity, energy consumption, and robustness. Robustness is the range of forces where a filament is expected to have continuous velocity and depends on used myosin system energy. Myosin systems are shown to have highly nonlinear behavior across force conditions that may be exploited at a systems level by combining slow and fast myosin isoforms heterogeneously. Results suggest some heterogeneous systems have lower energy use near stall conditions and greater energy consumption when unloaded, therefore promoting robustness. These heterogeneous system capabilities are unique in comparison with homogenous systems and potentially advantageous for high performance bionanotechnologies. Findings open doors at the intersections of mechanics and biology, particularly for understanding and treating myosin-related diseases and developing approaches for motor molecule-based technologies.

Robust mechanobiological behavior emerges in heterogeneous myosin systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egan, Paul F.; Moore, Jeffrey R.; Ehrlicher, Allen J.; Weitz, David A.; Schunn, Christian; Cagan, Jonathan; LeDuc, Philip

2017-09-01

Biological complexity presents challenges for understanding natural phenomenon and engineering new technologies, particularly in systems with molecular heterogeneity. Such complexity is present in myosin motor protein systems, and computational modeling is essential for determining how collective myosin interactions produce emergent system behavior. We develop a computational approach for altering myosin isoform parameters and their collective organization, and support predictions with in vitro experiments of motility assays with α-actinins as molecular force sensors. The computational approach models variations in single myosin molecular structure, system organization, and force stimuli to predict system behavior for filament velocity, energy consumption, and robustness. Robustness is the range of forces where a filament is expected to have continuous velocity and depends on used myosin system energy. Myosin systems are shown to have highly nonlinear behavior across force conditions that may be exploited at a systems level by combining slow and fast myosin isoforms heterogeneously. Results suggest some heterogeneous systems have lower energy use near stall conditions and greater energy consumption when unloaded, therefore promoting robustness. These heterogeneous system capabilities are unique in comparison with homogenous systems and potentially advantageous for high performance bionanotechnologies. Findings open doors at the intersections of mechanics and biology, particularly for understanding and treating myosin-related diseases and developing approaches for motor molecule-based technologies.

Emergence of hysteresis loop in social contagions on complex networks.

PubMed

Su, Zhen; Wang, Wei; Li, Lixiang; Xiao, Jinghua; Stanley, H Eugene

2017-07-21

Understanding the spreading mechanisms of social contagions in complex network systems has attracted much attention in the physics community. Here we propose a generalized threshold model to describe social contagions. Using extensive numerical simulations and theoretical analyses, we find that a hysteresis loop emerges in the system. Specifically, the steady state of the system is sensitive to the initial conditions of the dynamics of the system. In the steady state, the adoption size increases discontinuously with the transmission probability of information about social contagions, and trial size exhibits a non-monotonic pattern, i.e., it first increases discontinuously then decreases continuously. Finally we study social contagions on heterogeneous networks and find that network topology does not qualitatively affect our results.

Global dynamics of a mathematical model for the possible re-emergence of polio.

PubMed

Dénes, Attila; Székely, László

2017-11-01

Motivated by studies warning about a possible re-emergence of poliomyelitis in Europe, we analyse a compartmental model for the transmission of polio describing the possible effect of unvaccinated people arriving to a region with low vaccination coverage. We calculate the basic reproduction number, and determine the global dynamics of the system: we show that, depending on the parameters, one of the two equilibria is globally asymptotically stable. The main tools applied are Lyapunov functions and persistence theory. We illustrate the analytic results by numerical examples, which also suggest that in order to avoid the risk of polio re-emergence, vaccinating the immigrant population might result insufficient, and also the vaccination coverage of countries with low rates should be increased. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data Integration Plans for the NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Williams, D. N.; Deluca, C.; Hankin, S. C.; Compo, G. P.

2010-12-01

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and its collaborators have initiated a five-year development and implementation of an operational access capability for the next generation weather and climate model datasets. The NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) is being designed using format neutral open web based standards and tools where users at all levels of expertise can gain access and understanding to many of NOAA’s climate and weather model products. NCMP will closely coordinate with and reside under the emerging NOAA Climate Services Portal (NCSP). To carry out its mission, NOAA must be able to successfully integrate model output and other data and information from all of its discipline specific areas to understand and address the complexity of many environmental problems. The NCMP will be an initial access point for the emerging NOAA Climate Services Portal (NCSP), which is the basis for unified access to NOAA climate products and services. NCMP is currently collaborating with the emerging Environmental Projection Center (EPC) expected to be developed at the Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder CO. Specifically, NCMP is being designed to: - Enable policy makers and resource managers to make informed national and global policy decisions using integrated climate and weather model outputs, observations, information, products, and other services for the scientist and the non-scientist; - Identify model to observational interoperability requirements for climate and weather system analysis and diagnostics; - Promote the coordination of an international reanalysis observational clearinghouse (i.e.., Reanalysis.org) spanning the worlds numerical processing Center’s for an “Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System”. NCMP will initially provide access capabilities to 3 of NOAA’s high volume Reanalysis data sets of the weather and climate systems: 1) NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS-R); 2) NOAA’s Climate Diagnostics Center/ Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project data set (20CR, G. Compo, et al.), a historical reanalysis that will provide climate information dating back to 1850 to the present; and 3) the CPC’s Upper Air Reanlaysis. NCMP will advance the highly successful NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS, Rutledge, BAMS 2006), and standards already in use including Unidata’s THREDDS (TDS), PMEL’s Live Access Server (LAS) and the GrADS Data Server (GDS) from COLA; the Department of Energy (DOE) Earth System Grid (ESG) and the associated IPCC Climate model archive located at the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Inter-comparison (PCMDI) through the ESG; and NOAA’s Unified Access Framework (UAF) effort; and core standards developed by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The format neutral OPeNDAP protocol as used in the NOMADS system will also be a key aspect of the design of NCMP.

Don't panic--prepare: towards crisis-aware models of emergency department operations.

PubMed

Ceglowski, Red; Churilov, Leonid; Wasserheil, Jeff

2005-12-01

The existing models of Emergency Department (ED) operations that are based on the "flow-shop" management logic do not provide adequate decision support in dealing with the ED overcrowding crises. A conceptually different crisis-aware approach to ED modelling and operational decision support is introduced in this paper. It is based on Perrow's theory of "normal accidents" and calls for recognizing the inevitable nature of ED overcrowding crises within current health system setup. Managing the crisis before it happens--a standard approach in crisis management area--should become an integral part of ED operations management. The potential implications of adopting such a crisis-aware perspective for health services research and ED management are outlined.

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

PubMed

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

The design and implementation of urban earthquake disaster loss evaluation and emergency response decision support systems based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-li; Peng, Shuang-yun; Cao, Yan-bo

2008-10-01

Based on the necessity analysis of GIS applications in earthquake disaster prevention, this paper has deeply discussed the spatial integration scheme of urban earthquake disaster loss evaluation models and visualization technologies by using the network development methods such as COM/DCOM, ActiveX and ASP, as well as the spatial database development methods such as OO4O and ArcSDE based on ArcGIS software packages. Meanwhile, according to Software Engineering principles, a solution of Urban Earthquake Emergency Response Decision Support Systems based on GIS technologies have also been proposed, which include the systems logical structures, the technical routes,the system realization methods and function structures etc. Finally, the testing systems user interfaces have also been offered in the paper.

Detecting Emergence of Acidification and Warming as Stressors for Coral Reef Regions using Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, A. T.

2015-12-01

Coral reef ecosystems rely on complex interactions between biological, biogeochemical, and physical processes to ensure their survival and resilience. However, both human interaction and anthropogenic climate change have negatively impacted the prosperity of these regions, resulting in a crucial need to understand and predict the future of important biogeochemical and physical stressors. Contemporary changes to these relationships and environmental conditions in coral reef ecosystems are a mixture of anthropogenic contributions and natural variability (e.g. ENSO) of the climate system. To better quantify the uncertainty in future projections, it is exceedingly necessary to differentiate between these two contributors. In this study we look at acidification and warming stressors in the Galapagos, Coral Triangle, and Hawaiian islands regions. We use a suite of hindcast simulations (a 30-member large initial condition ensemble) done with an Earth Systems Model (GFDL-ESM2M) in order quantify the degree to which natural variability alters the emergence time-scales of anthropogenically-induced changes to ecosystem drivers such as pH, ΩArag, and SST. A comparison of output from a suit of CMIP5 models will be used to evaluate model uncertainty for the same regions. Simulated trends and variability in these ecosystem drivers were then compared to observed trends over the three Pacific regions. Evidently the models and observed trends proved invaluable for testing the hypothesis addressing the presence of a temporal hierarchy between emergence, defined by a signal-to-noise ratio, of acidification stressors and temperature as a stressor. Furthermore, challenges in deconvolving anthropogenic and natural contributions to stressor trends will be discussed for each of the three sites.

Multiscale Modeling of Human-Water Interactions: The Role of Time-Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloeschl, G.; Sivapalan, M.

2015-12-01

Much of the interest in hydrological modeling in the past decades revolved around resolving spatial variability. With the rapid changes brought about by human impacts on the hydrologic cycle, there is now an increasing need to refocus on time dependency. We present a co-evolutionary view of hydrologic systems, in which every part of the system including human systems, co-evolve, albeit at different rates. The resulting coupled human-nature system is framed as a dynamical system, characterized by interactions of fast and slow time scales and feedbacks between environmental and social processes. This gives rise to emergent phenomena such as the levee effect, adaptation to change and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system in a dynamic way. The co-evolutionary approach differs from the traditional view of water resource systems analysis as it allows for path dependence, multiple equilibria, lock-in situations and emergent phenomena. The approach may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesise the observed dynamics of different case studies. Future research opportunities include the study of how changes in human values are connected to human-water interactions, historical analyses of trajectories of system co-evolution in individual places and comparative analyses of contrasting human-water systems in different climate and socio-economic settings. Reference Sivapalan, M. and G. Blöschl (2015) Time Scale Interactions and the Co-evolution of Humans and Water. Water Resour. Res., 51, in press.

Building Cognition: The Construction of Computational Representations for Scientific Discovery.

PubMed

Chandrasekharan, Sanjay; Nersessian, Nancy J

2015-11-01

Novel computational representations, such as simulation models of complex systems and video games for scientific discovery (Foldit, EteRNA etc.), are dramatically changing the way discoveries emerge in science and engineering. The cognitive roles played by such computational representations in discovery are not well understood. We present a theoretical analysis of the cognitive roles such representations play, based on an ethnographic study of the building of computational models in a systems biology laboratory. Specifically, we focus on a case of model-building by an engineer that led to a remarkable discovery in basic bioscience. Accounting for such discoveries requires a distributed cognition (DC) analysis, as DC focuses on the roles played by external representations in cognitive processes. However, DC analyses by and large have not examined scientific discovery, and they mostly focus on memory offloading, particularly how the use of existing external representations changes the nature of cognitive tasks. In contrast, we study discovery processes and argue that discoveries emerge from the processes of building the computational representation. The building process integrates manipulations in imagination and in the representation, creating a coupled cognitive system of model and modeler, where the model is incorporated into the modeler's imagination. This account extends DC significantly, and we present some of the theoretical and application implications of this extended account. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Emergency Preparedness in the Workplace: The Flulapalooza Model for Mass Vaccination

PubMed Central

Aliyu, Muktar H.; Byrne, Daniel W.; Qian, Keqin; McGown, Paula; Kinman, Patricia O.; Hanson, Katherine Louise; Culpepper, Demoyne; Cooley, Tamara J.; Yarbrough, Mary I.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To explore whether an emergency preparedness structure is a feasible, efficient, and sustainable way for health care organizations to manage mass vaccination events. Methods. We used the Hospital Incident Command System to conduct a 1-day annual mass influenza vaccination event at Vanderbilt University Medical Center over 5 successive years (2011–2015). Using continuous quality improvement principles, we assessed whether changes in layout, supply management, staffing, and documentation systems improved efficiency. Results. A total of 66 591 influenza vaccines were administered at 5 annual Flulapalooza events; 13 318 vaccines per event on average. Changes to the physical layout, staffing mix, and documentation processes improved vaccination efficiency 74%, from approximately 38 to 67 vaccines per hour per vaccinator, while reducing overall staffing needs by 38%. An unexpected finding was the role of social media in facilitating active engagement. Conclusions. Health care organizations can use a closed point-of-dispensing model and Hospital Incident Command System to conduct mass vaccination events, and can adopt the “Flulapalooza method” as a best practice model to enhance efficiency. PMID:28892449

An Empirical Study of Instructor Adoption of Web-Based Learning Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Wei-Tsong; Wang, Chun-Chieh

2009-01-01

For years, web-based learning systems have been widely employed in both educational and non-educational institutions. Although web-based learning systems are emerging as a useful tool for facilitating teaching and learning activities, the number of users is not increasing as fast as expected. This study develops an integrated model of instructor…

Distance Learning Success--A Perspective from Socio-Technical Systems Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Jianfeng; Solan, David; Ghods, Abe

2010-01-01

With widespread adoption of computer-based distance education as a mission-critical component of the institution's educational program, the need for evaluation has emerged. In this research, we aim to expand on the systems approach by offering a model for evaluation based on socio-technical systems theory addressing a stated need in the literature…

Organized All the Way Down

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylvan, David

At least since Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations, it has been understood that social systems can be considered as having emergent properties not reducible to the actions of individuals. The appeal of this idea is obvious, no different now than in Smith's time: that aggregates of persons can be ordered without such order being intended or enforced by any particular person or persons. A search for such an "invisible hand" is what brings many of us to the study of complexity and the construction of various types of computational models aimed at capturing it. However, in proceeding along these lines, we have tended to focus on particular types of social systems — what I will in this paper call "thin" systems, such as markets and populations — and ignored other types, such as groups, whose base interactions are "thick," i.e., constructed as one of many possibilities, by the participants, at the moment in which they take place. These latter systems are not only ubiquitous but pose particular modeling problems for students of complexity: the local interactions are themselves complex and the systems display no strongly emergent features.

Evolution of the Orszag-Tang vortex system in a compressible medium. II - Supersonic flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Picone, J. Michael; Dahlburg, Russell B.

1991-01-01

A study is presented on the effect of embedded supersonic flows and the resulting emerging shock waves on phenomena associated with MHD turbulence, including reconnection, the formation of current sheets and vortex structures, and the evolution of spatial and temporal correlations among physical variables. A two-dimensional model problem, the Orszag-Tang (1979) vortex system, is chosen, which involves decay from nonrandom initial conditions. The system is doubly periodic, and the initial conditions consist of single-mode solenoidal velocity and magnetic fields, each containing X points and O points. The initial mass density is flat, and the initial pressure fluctuations are incompressible, balancing the local forces for a magnetofluid of unit mass density. Results on the evolution of the local structure of the flow field, the global properties of the system, and spectral correlations are presented. The important dynamical properties and observational consequences of embedded supersonic regions and emerging shocks in the Orszag-Tang model of an MHD system undergoing reconnection are discussed. Conclusions are drawn regarding the effects of local supersonic regions on MHD turbulence.

Strategic behaviors and governance challenges in social-ecological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Anderies, John M.

2017-08-01

The resource management and environmental policy literature focuses on devising regulations and incentive structures to achieve desirable goals. It often presumes the existence of public infrastructure that actualizes these incentives and regulations through a process loosely referred to as `governance.' In many cases, it is not clear if and how such governance infrastructure can be created and supported. Here, we take a complex systems view in which `governance' is an emergent phenomenon generated by interactions between social, economic, and environmental (both built and natural) factors. We present a framework and formal stylized model to explore under what circumstances stable governance structures may emerge endogenously in coupled infrastructure systems comprising shared natural, social, and built infrastructures of which social-ecological systems are specific examples. The model allows us to derive general conditions for a sustainable coupled infrastructure system in which critical infrastructure (e.g., canals) is provided by a governing entity that enables resource users (e.g., farmers) to produce outputs from natural infrastructure (e.g., water) to meet their needs while supporting the governing entity.

Multidimensional Data Modeling for Business Process Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansmann, Svetlana; Neumuth, Thomas; Scholl, Marc H.

The emerging area of business process intelligence attempts to enhance the analytical capabilities of business process management systems by employing data warehousing and mining technologies. This paper presents an approach to re-engineering the business process modeling in conformity with the multidimensional data model. Since the business process and the multidimensional model are driven by rather different objectives and assumptions, there is no straightforward solution to converging these models.

Emergence of gamma motor activity in an artificial neural network model of the corticospinal system.

PubMed

Grandjean, Bernard; Maier, Marc A

2017-02-01

Muscle spindle discharge during active movement is a function of mechanical and neural parameters. Muscle length changes (and their derivatives) represent its primary mechanical, fusimotor drive its neural component. However, neither the action nor the function of fusimotor and in particular of γ-drive, have been clearly established, since γ-motor activity during voluntary, non-locomotor movements remains largely unknown. Here, using a computational approach, we explored whether γ-drive emerges in an artificial neural network model of the corticospinal system linked to a biomechanical antagonist wrist simulator. The wrist simulator included length-sensitive and γ-drive-dependent type Ia and type II muscle spindle activity. Network activity and connectivity were derived by a gradient descent algorithm to generate reciprocal, known target α-motor unit activity during wrist flexion-extension (F/E) movements. Two tasks were simulated: an alternating F/E task and a slow F/E tracking task. Emergence of γ-motor activity in the alternating F/E network was a function of α-motor unit drive: if muscle afferent (together with supraspinal) input was required for driving α-motor units, then γ-drive emerged in the form of α-γ coactivation, as predicted by empirical studies. In the slow F/E tracking network, γ-drive emerged in the form of α-γ dissociation and provided critical, bidirectional muscle afferent activity to the cortical network, containing known bidirectional target units. The model thus demonstrates the complementary aspects of spindle output and hence γ-drive: i) muscle spindle activity as a driving force of α-motor unit activity, and ii) afferent activity providing continuous sensory information, both of which crucially depend on γ-drive.

Key elements of successful care process of patients with heart symptoms in an emergency care - could an ERP system help?

PubMed

Kontio, Elina; Korvenranta, Heikki; Lundgren-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna

2009-01-01

The aim of the study was to identify key elements of successful care process of patients with heart symptoms from the nursing management viewpoint in an emergency care. Through these descriptions, we aimed at identifying possibilities for using enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems to support decision making in emergency care. Hospitals are increasingly moving to process-based workings and at the same time new information system in healthcare are developed and therefore it is essential to understand the strengths and weaknesses of current processes better. A qualitative descriptive design using critical incident technique was employed. Critical Incidents were collected with an open-ended questionnaire. The sample (n=50), 13 head nurses and 37 registered nurses, was purposeful selected from three acute hospitals in southern Finland. The process of patients with heart symptoms in emergency care was described. We identified three competence categories where special focus should be placed to achieve successful process of patients with heart symptoms: process-oriented competencies, personal/management competencies and logistics oriented competencies. Improvement of decision making requires that the care processes are defined and modeled. The research showed that there are several happenings in emergency care where an ERP system could help and support decision making. These happenings can be categorized in two groups: 1) administrative related happenings and 2) patient processes related happenings.

A fail safe laser activated switch used as an emergency control link at the Langley Vortex Research Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kassel, P. C., Jr.

1978-01-01

A fail safe light activated switch was used as an emergency control link at the Langley Vortex Research Facility. In this facility aircraft models were towed through a still air test chamber by a gasoline powered vehicle which was launched from one end of a 427-meter track and attained velocities to 31 m/sec in the test chamber. A 5 mW HeNe laser with a mechanical copper provided a connecting link with the moving tow vehicle on which a silicon photodiode receiver with a specially designed amplifier provided a fail safe switching action. This system provided an emergency means of stopping the vehicle by turning off the laser to interrupt the power to the vehicle ignition and brake release systems.

Polypharmacology Shakes Hands with Complex Aetiopathology.

PubMed

Brodie, James S; Di Marzo, Vincenzo; Guy, Geoffrey W

2015-12-01

Chronic diseases are due to deviations of fundamental physiological systems, with different pathologies being characterised by similar malfunctioning biological networks. The ensuing compensatory mechanisms may weaken the body's dynamic ability to respond to further insults and reduce the efficacy of conventional single target treatments. The multitarget, systemic, and prohomeostatic actions emerging for plant cannabinoids exemplify what might be needed for future medicines. Indeed, two combined cannabis extracts were approved as a single medicine (Sativex(®)), while pure cannabidiol, a multitarget cannabinoid, is emerging as a treatment for paediatric drug-resistant epilepsy. Using emerging cannabinoid medicines as an example, we revisit the concept of polypharmacology and describe a new empirical model, the 'therapeutic handshake', to predict efficacy/safety of compound combinations of either natural or synthetic origin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Innovation and Navigating Unseen Boundaries: Systems, Processes and People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleet, Alma; De Gioia, Katey; Madden, Lorraine; Semann, Anthony

2018-01-01

This paper illustrates an evaluation model emerging from Australian research. With reference to a range of contexts, its usefulness is demonstrated through application to two professional development initiatives designed to improve continuity of learning in the context of the transition to school. The model reconceptualises approaches to…

78 FR 18375 - Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards; Notice of Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-26

... Pike, Rockville, Maryland. Thursday, April 11, 2013, Conference Room T2-B1, 11545 Rockville Pike..., ``Westinghouse BWR ECCS Evaluation Model: Supplement 5--Application to the ABWR,'' Revision 0 (Open/Closed)--The...-17116-P, ``Westinghouse BWR Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS) Evaluation Model: Supplement 5,'' and...

Marriage and Family Counseling: Ethics in Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Southern, Stephen; Smith, Robert L.; Oliver, Marvarene

2005-01-01

Codes of ethics typically provide rules and guidelines for best practices in marriage and family counseling. An emerging model for ethical decision making emphasizes the ethics of virtues and aspirations. Exploring fundamental models of helping, as well as contemporary issues in community systems, affords context for examining the professional…

Positive Youth Development and Nutrition: Interdisciplinary Strategies to Enhance Student Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Oliver W.; Cheeley, Taylor

2016-01-01

Educational policies require the use of data and progress monitoring frameworks to guide instruction and intervention in schools. As a result, different problem-solving models such as multitiered systems of supports (MTSS) have emerged that use these frameworks to improve student outcomes. However, problem-focused models emphasize negative…

An ontology-driven, diagnostic modeling system.

PubMed

Haug, Peter J; Ferraro, Jeffrey P; Holmen, John; Wu, Xinzi; Mynam, Kumar; Ebert, Matthew; Dean, Nathan; Jones, Jason

2013-06-01

To present a system that uses knowledge stored in a medical ontology to automate the development of diagnostic decision support systems. To illustrate its function through an example focused on the development of a tool for diagnosing pneumonia. We developed a system that automates the creation of diagnostic decision-support applications. It relies on a medical ontology to direct the acquisition of clinic data from a clinical data warehouse and uses an automated analytic system to apply a sequence of machine learning algorithms that create applications for diagnostic screening. We refer to this system as the ontology-driven diagnostic modeling system (ODMS). We tested this system using samples of patient data collected in Salt Lake City emergency rooms and stored in Intermountain Healthcare's enterprise data warehouse. The system was used in the preliminary development steps of a tool to identify patients with pneumonia in the emergency department. This tool was compared with a manually created diagnostic tool derived from a curated dataset. The manually created tool is currently in clinical use. The automatically created tool had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.920 (95% CI 0.916 to 0.924), compared with 0.944 (95% CI 0.942 to 0.947) for the manually created tool. Initial testing of the ODMS demonstrates promising accuracy for the highly automated results and illustrates the route to model improvement. The use of medical knowledge, embedded in ontologies, to direct the initial development of diagnostic computing systems appears feasible.

Evidence and future scenarios of a low-carbon energy transition in Central America: a case study in Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barido, Diego Ponce de Leon; Johnston, Josiah; Moncada, Maria V.; Callaway, Duncan; Kammen, Daniel M.

2015-10-01

The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua’s options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.

Anatomy and Physiology of Multiscale Modeling and Simulation in Systems Medicine.

PubMed

Mizeranschi, Alexandru; Groen, Derek; Borgdorff, Joris; Hoekstra, Alfons G; Chopard, Bastien; Dubitzky, Werner

2016-01-01

Systems medicine is the application of systems biology concepts, methods, and tools to medical research and practice. It aims to integrate data and knowledge from different disciplines into biomedical models and simulations for the understanding, prevention, cure, and management of complex diseases. Complex diseases arise from the interactions among disease-influencing factors across multiple levels of biological organization from the environment to molecules. To tackle the enormous challenges posed by complex diseases, we need a modeling and simulation framework capable of capturing and integrating information originating from multiple spatiotemporal and organizational scales. Multiscale modeling and simulation in systems medicine is an emerging methodology and discipline that has already demonstrated its potential in becoming this framework. The aim of this chapter is to present some of the main concepts, requirements, and challenges of multiscale modeling and simulation in systems medicine.

On the Impact of Execution Models: A Case Study in Computational Chemistry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram

2015-05-25

Efficient utilization of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms is an important and complex problem. Execution models, abstract descriptions of the dynamic runtime behavior of the execution stack, have significant impact on the utilization of HPC systems. Using a computational chemistry kernel as a case study and a wide variety of execution models combined with load balancing techniques, we explore the impact of execution models on the utilization of an HPC system. We demonstrate a 50 percent improvement in performance by using work stealing relative to a more traditional static scheduling approach. We also use a novel semi-matching technique for load balancingmore » that has comparable performance to a traditional hypergraph-based partitioning implementation, which is computationally expensive. Using this study, we found that execution model design choices and assumptions can limit critical optimizations such as global, dynamic load balancing and finding the correct balance between available work units and different system and runtime overheads. With the emergence of multi- and many-core architectures and the consequent growth in the complexity of HPC platforms, we believe that these lessons will be beneficial to researchers tuning diverse applications on modern HPC platforms, especially on emerging dynamic platforms with energy-induced performance variability.« less

Automated Discovery and Modeling of Sequential Patterns Preceding Events of Interest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rohloff, Kurt

2010-01-01

The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.

Infectious Disease Surveillance in the Big Data Era: Towards Faster and Locally Relevant Systems

PubMed Central

Simonsen, Lone; Gog, Julia R.; Olson, Don; Viboud, Cécile

2016-01-01

While big data have proven immensely useful in fields such as marketing and earth sciences, public health is still relying on more traditional surveillance systems and awaiting the fruits of a big data revolution. A new generation of big data surveillance systems is needed to achieve rapid, flexible, and local tracking of infectious diseases, especially for emerging pathogens. In this opinion piece, we reflect on the long and distinguished history of disease surveillance and discuss recent developments related to use of big data. We start with a brief review of traditional systems relying on clinical and laboratory reports. We then examine how large-volume medical claims data can, with great spatiotemporal resolution, help elucidate local disease patterns. Finally, we review efforts to develop surveillance systems based on digital and social data streams, including the recent rise and fall of Google Flu Trends. We conclude by advocating for increased use of hybrid systems combining information from traditional surveillance and big data sources, which seems the most promising option moving forward. Throughout the article, we use influenza as an exemplar of an emerging and reemerging infection which has traditionally been considered a model system for surveillance and modeling. PMID:28830112

Safeguarding production agriculture and natural ecosystems against biological terrorism. A U.S. Department of Agriculture emergency response framework.

PubMed

Sequeira, R

1999-01-01

Foreign pest introductions and outbreaks represent threats to agricultural productivity and ecosystems, and, thus, to the health and national security of the United States. It is advisable to identify relevant techniques and bring all appropriate strategies to bear on the problem of controlling accidentally and intentionally introduced pest outbreaks. Recent political shifts indicate that the U.S. may be at increased risk for biological terrorism. The existing emergency-response strategies of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services (APHIS) will evolve to expand activities in coordination with other emergency management agencies. APHIS will evolve its information superstructure to include extensive application of simulation models for forecasting, meteorological databases and analysis, systems analysis, geographic information systems, satellite image analysis, remote sensing, and the training of specialized cadres within the emergency-response framework capable of managing the necessary information processing and analysis. Finally, the threat of key pests ranked according to perceived risk will be assessed with mathematical models and "what-if" scenarios analyzed to determine impact and mitigation practices. An infrastructure will be maintained that periodically surveys ports and inland regions for the presence of exotic pest threats and will identify trend abnormalities. This survey and monitoring effort will include cooperation from industry groups, federal and state organizations, and academic institutions.

Simulations of Living Cell Origins Using a Cellular Automata Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, Takeshi

2014-04-01

Understanding the generalized mechanisms of cell self-assembly is fundamental for applications in various fields, such as mass producing molecular machines in nanotechnology. Thus, the details of real cellular reaction networks and the necessary conditions for self-organized cells must be elucidated. We constructed a 2-dimensional cellular automata model to investigate the emergence of biological cell formation, which incorporated a looped membrane and a membrane-bound information system (akin to a genetic code and gene expression system). In particular, with an artificial reaction system coupled with a thermal system, the simultaneous formation of a looped membrane and an inner reaction process resulted in a more stable structure. These double structures inspired the primitive biological cell formation process from chemical evolution stage. With a model to simulate cellular self-organization in a 2-dimensional cellular automata model, 3 phenomena could be realized: (1) an inner reaction system developed as an information carrier precursor (akin to DNA); (2) a cell border emerged (akin to a cell membrane); and (3) these cell structures could divide into 2. This double-structured cell was considered to be a primary biological cell. The outer loop evolved toward a lipid bilayer membrane, and inner polymeric particles evolved toward precursor information carriers (evolved toward DNA). This model did not completely clarify all the necessary and sufficient conditions for biological cell self-organization. Further, our virtual cells remained unstable and fragile. However, the "garbage bag model" of Dyson proposed that the first living cells were deficient; thus, it would be reasonable that the earliest cells were more unstable and fragile than the simplest current unicellular organisms.

Simulations of living cell origins using a cellular automata model.

PubMed

Ishida, Takeshi

2014-04-01

Understanding the generalized mechanisms of cell self-assembly is fundamental for applications in various fields, such as mass producing molecular machines in nanotechnology. Thus, the details of real cellular reaction networks and the necessary conditions for self-organized cells must be elucidated. We constructed a 2-dimensional cellular automata model to investigate the emergence of biological cell formation, which incorporated a looped membrane and a membrane-bound information system (akin to a genetic code and gene expression system). In particular, with an artificial reaction system coupled with a thermal system, the simultaneous formation of a looped membrane and an inner reaction process resulted in a more stable structure. These double structures inspired the primitive biological cell formation process from chemical evolution stage. With a model to simulate cellular self-organization in a 2-dimensional cellular automata model, 3 phenomena could be realized: (1) an inner reaction system developed as an information carrier precursor (akin to DNA); (2) a cell border emerged (akin to a cell membrane); and (3) these cell structures could divide into 2. This double-structured cell was considered to be a primary biological cell. The outer loop evolved toward a lipid bilayer membrane, and inner polymeric particles evolved toward precursor information carriers (evolved toward DNA). This model did not completely clarify all the necessary and sufficient conditions for biological cell self-organization. Further, our virtual cells remained unstable and fragile. However, the "garbage bag model" of Dyson proposed that the first living cells were deficient; thus, it would be reasonable that the earliest cells were more unstable and fragile than the simplest current unicellular organisms.

Warning systems in risk management.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E

1986-06-01

A method is presented here that allows probabilistic evaluation and optimization of warning systems, and comparison of their performance and cost-effectiveness with those of other means of risk management. The model includes an assessment of the signals, and of human response, given the memory that people have kept of the quality of previous alerts. The trade-off between the rate of false alerts and the length of the lead time is studied to account for the long-term effects of "crying wolf" and the effectiveness of emergency actions. An explicit formulation of the system's benefits, including inputs from a signal model, a response model, and a consequence model, is given to allow optimization of the warning threshold and of the system's sensitivity.

Chemical and radiation mutagenesis: Induction and detection by whole genome sequencing

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Brachypodium distachyon has emerged as an effective model system to address fundamental questions in grass biology. With its small sequenced genome, short generation time and rapidly expanding array of genetic tools B. distachyon is an ideal system to elucidate the molecular basis of important trai...

Role of Open and Distance Education in Integrating Education with Development--Emerging Model of Networked Collaborative Learning and Net-working.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Takwale, Ram

1998-01-01

Discusses the evolution of the educational system in India, developments in new communication technologies, and plans by the open and distance education system to develop educational networks. Policies and programs adopted by the Distance Education Council are outlined. (AEF)

IS 2010 and ABET Accreditation: An Analysis of ABET-Accredited Information Systems Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saulnier, Bruce; White, Bruce

2011-01-01

Many strong forces are converging on information systems academic departments. Among these forces are quality considerations, accreditation, curriculum models, declining/steady student enrollments, and keeping current with respect to emerging technologies and trends. ABET, formerly the Accrediting Board for Engineering and Technology, is at…

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

Hospital Systems, Convenient Care Strategies, and Healthcare Reform.

PubMed

Kaissi, Amer; Shay, Patrick; Roscoe, Christina

2016-01-01

Retail clinics (RCs) and urgent care centers (UCCs) are convenient care models that emerged on the healthcare scene in the past 10 to 15 years. Characterized as disruptive innovations, these models of healthcare delivery seem to follow a slightly different path from each other. Hospital systems, the very organizations that were originally threatened by convenient care models, are developing them and partnering with existing models. We posit that legislative changes such as the Affordable Care Act created challenges for hospital systems that accelerated their adoption of these models. In this study, we analyze 117 hospital systems in six states and report on their convenient care strategies. Our data suggest that UCCs are more prevalent than RCs among hospital systems, and that large and unexplained state-by-state variations exist in the adoption of these strategies. We also postulate about the future role of hospital systems in leading these innovations.

Enabling heterogenous multi-scale database for emergency service functions through geoinformation technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhanumurthy, V.; Venugopala Rao, K.; Srinivasa Rao, S.; Ram Mohan Rao, K.; Chandra, P. Satya; Vidhyasagar, J.; Diwakar, P. G.; Dadhwal, V. K.

2014-11-01

Geographical Information Science (GIS) is now graduated from traditional desktop system to Internet system. Internet GIS is emerging as one of the most promising technologies for addressing Emergency Management. Web services with different privileges are playing an important role in dissemination of the emergency services to the decision makers. Spatial database is one of the most important components in the successful implementation of Emergency Management. It contains spatial data in the form of raster, vector, linked with non-spatial information. Comprehensive data is required to handle emergency situation in different phases. These database elements comprise core data, hazard specific data, corresponding attribute data, and live data coming from the remote locations. Core data sets are minimum required data including base, thematic, infrastructure layers to handle disasters. Disaster specific information is required to handle a particular disaster situation like flood, cyclone, forest fire, earth quake, land slide, drought. In addition to this Emergency Management require many types of data with spatial and temporal attributes that should be made available to the key players in the right format at right time. The vector database needs to be complemented with required resolution satellite imagery for visualisation and analysis in disaster management. Therefore, the database is interconnected and comprehensive to meet the requirement of an Emergency Management. This kind of integrated, comprehensive and structured database with appropriate information is required to obtain right information at right time for the right people. However, building spatial database for Emergency Management is a challenging task because of the key issues such as availability of data, sharing policies, compatible geospatial standards, data interoperability etc. Therefore, to facilitate using, sharing, and integrating the spatial data, there is a need to define standards to build emergency database systems. These include aspects such as i) data integration procedures namely standard coding scheme, schema, meta data format, spatial format ii) database organisation mechanism covering data management, catalogues, data models iii) database dissemination through a suitable environment, as a standard service for effective service dissemination. National Database for Emergency Management (NDEM) is such a comprehensive database for addressing disasters in India at the national level. This paper explains standards for integrating, organising the multi-scale and multi-source data with effective emergency response using customized user interfaces for NDEM. It presents standard procedure for building comprehensive emergency information systems for enabling emergency specific functions through geospatial technologies.

Time series modeling for syndromic surveillance.

PubMed

Reis, Ben Y; Mandl, Kenneth D

2003-01-23

Emergency department (ED) based syndromic surveillance systems identify abnormally high visit rates that may be an early signal of a bioterrorist attack. For example, an anthrax outbreak might first be detectable as an unusual increase in the number of patients reporting to the ED with respiratory symptoms. Reliably identifying these abnormal visit patterns requires a good understanding of the normal patterns of healthcare usage. Unfortunately, systematic methods for determining the expected number of (ED) visits on a particular day have not yet been well established. We present here a generalized methodology for developing models of expected ED visit rates. Using time-series methods, we developed robust models of ED utilization for the purpose of defining expected visit rates. The models were based on nearly a decade of historical data at a major metropolitan academic, tertiary care pediatric emergency department. The historical data were fit using trimmed-mean seasonal models, and additional models were fit with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) residuals to account for recent trends in the data. The detection capabilities of the model were tested with simulated outbreaks. Models were built both for overall visits and for respiratory-related visits, classified according to the chief complaint recorded at the beginning of each visit. The mean absolute percentage error of the ARIMA models was 9.37% for overall visits and 27.54% for respiratory visits. A simple detection system based on the ARIMA model of overall visits was able to detect 7-day-long simulated outbreaks of 30 visits per day with 100% sensitivity and 97% specificity. Sensitivity decreased with outbreak size, dropping to 94% for outbreaks of 20 visits per day, and 57% for 10 visits per day, all while maintaining a 97% benchmark specificity. Time series methods applied to historical ED utilization data are an important tool for syndromic surveillance. Accurate forecasting of emergency department total utilization as well as the rates of particular syndromes is possible. The multiple models in the system account for both long-term and recent trends, and an integrated alarms strategy combining these two perspectives may provide a more complete picture to public health authorities. The systematic methodology described here can be generalized to other healthcare settings to develop automated surveillance systems capable of detecting anomalies in disease patterns and healthcare utilization.

Desktop Manufacturing Technologies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Mark

1991-01-01

Desktop manufacturing is the use of data from a computer-assisted design system to construct actual models of an object. Emerging processes are stereolithography, laser sintering, ballistic particle manufacturing, laminated object manufacturing, and photochemical machining. (SK)

Space versus Place in Complex Human-Natural Systems: Spatial and Multi-level Models of Tropical Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) in Guatemala

PubMed Central

López-Carr, David; Davis, Jason; Jankowska, Marta; Grant, Laura; López-Carr, Anna Carla; Clark, Matthew

2013-01-01

The relative role of space and place has long been debated in geography. Yet modeling efforts applied to coupled human-natural systems seemingly favor models assuming continuous spatial relationships. We examine the relative importance of placebased hierarchical versus spatial clustering influences in tropical land use/cover change (LUCC). Guatemala was chosen as our study site given its high rural population growth and deforestation in recent decades. We test predictors of 2009 forest cover and forest cover change from 2001-2009 across Guatemala's 331 municipalities and 22 departments using spatial and multi-level statistical models. Our results indicate the emergence of several socio-economic predictors of LUCC regardless of model choice. Hierarchical model results suggest that significant differences exist at the municipal and departmental levels but largely maintain the magnitude and direction of single-level model coefficient estimates. They are also intervention-relevant since policies tend to be applicable to distinct political units rather than to continuous space. Spatial models complement hierarchical approaches by indicating where and to what magnitude significant negative and positive clustering associations emerge. Appreciating the comparative advantages and limitations of spatial and nested models enhances a holistic approach to geographical analysis of tropical LUCC and human-environment interactions. PMID:24013908

Help Me Please!: Designing and Developing Application for Emergencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Ng Ken; Hafit, Hanayanti; Wahid, Norfaradilla; Kasim, Shahreen; Yusof, Munirah Mohd

2017-08-01

Help Me Please! Application is an android platform emergency button application that is designed to transmit emergency messages to target receivers with real time information. The purpose of developing this application is to help people to notify any emergency circumstances via Short Message Service (SMS) in android platform. The application will receive the current location from Global Positioning System (GPS), will obtain the current time from the mobile device and send this information to the receivers when user presses the emergency button. Simultaneously, the application will keep sending the emergency alerts to receivers and will update to database based on the time interval set by user until user stop the function. Object-oriented Software Development model is employed to guide the development of this application with the knowledge of Java language and Android Studio. In conclusion, this application plays an important role in rescuing process when emergency circumstances happen. The rescue process will become more effective by notifying the emergency circumstances and send the current location of user to others in the early hours.

Information technology and emergency management: preparedness and planning in US states.

PubMed

Reddick, Christopher

2011-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of information technology (IT) on emergency preparedness and planning by analysing a survey of US state government departments of emergency management. The research results show that there has been a significant impact of IT on emergency planning. IT has proven to be effective for all phases of emergency management, but especially for the response phase. There are numerous technologies used in emergency management, ranging from the internet, Geographic Information Systems and wireless technologies to more advanced hazard analysis models. All were generally viewed as being effective. Lack of financial resources and support from elected officials is a perennial problem in public administration, and was found to be prevalent in this study of IT and emergency management. There was evidence that state governments rating high on a performance index were more likely to use IT for emergency management. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

An Alternative Model of Music Learning and "Last Night's Fun": Participatory Music Making In/As Participatory Culture in Irish Traditional Music

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waldron, Janice

2016-01-01

Exploring emergent music learning and teaching models facilitated by global Web access can reveal alternative music education practices and delivery systems not seen in "traditional" conservatories and schools. One example of an alternative music learning model comes from the Online Academy of Irish Music (OAIM), a community music…

[First aid system for trauma: development and status].

PubMed

Chen, D K; Lin, W C; Zhang, P; Kuang, S J; Huang, W; Wang, T B

2017-04-18

With the great progress of the economy, the level of industrialization has been increasing year by year, which leads to an increase in accidental trauma accidents. Chinese annual death of trauma is already more than 400 000, which makes trauma the fifth most common cause of death, following malignant tumor, heart, brain and respiratory diseases. Trauma is the leading cause of the death of young adults. At the same time, trauma has become a serious social problem in peace time. Trauma throws great treats on human health and life. As an important part in the medical and social security system, the emergency of trauma system occupies a very important position in the emergency medical service system. In European countries as well as the United States and also many other developed countries, trauma service system had a long history, and progressed to an advanced stage. However, Chinese trauma service system started late and is still developing. It has not turned into a complete and standardized system yet. This review summarizes the histories and current situations of the development of traumatic first aid system separately in European countries, the United States and our country. Special attentions are paid to the effects of the pre- and in-hospital emergency care. We also further try to explore the Chinese trauma emergency model that adapts to the situations of China and characteristics of different regions of China. Our review also introduces the trauma service system that suits the situations of China proposed by Professor Jiang Baoguo's team in details, taking Chinese conditions into account, they conducted a thematic study and made an expert consensus on pre-hospital emergency treatment of severe trauma, providing a basic routine and guidance of severe trauma treatment for those pre-hospital emergency physicians. They also advised to establish independent trauma disciplines and trauma specialist training systems, and to build the regional trauma care system as well as the standards for graded treatment, thus establishing a multiple disciplinary team (MDT) of severe trauma. In this way, we can reduce the mortality and disability risks of severe trauma, improve the quality of patients' life, and save more lives.

Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

2015-12-01

The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

Agent-Based Models of Strategies for the Emergence and Evolution of Grammatical Agreement

PubMed Central

Beuls, Katrien; Steels, Luc

2013-01-01

Grammatical agreement means that features associated with one linguistic unit (for example number or gender) become associated with another unit and then possibly overtly expressed, typically with morphological markers. It is one of the key mechanisms used in many languages to show that certain linguistic units within an utterance grammatically depend on each other. Agreement systems are puzzling because they can be highly complex in terms of what features they use and how they are expressed. Moreover, agreement systems have undergone considerable change in the historical evolution of languages. This article presents language game models with populations of agents in order to find out for what reasons and by what cultural processes and cognitive strategies agreement systems arise. It demonstrates that agreement systems are motivated by the need to minimize combinatorial search and semantic ambiguity, and it shows, for the first time, that once a population of agents adopts a strategy to invent, acquire and coordinate meaningful markers through social learning, linguistic self-organization leads to the spontaneous emergence and cultural transmission of an agreement system. The article also demonstrates how attested grammaticalization phenomena, such as phonetic reduction and conventionalized use of agreement markers, happens as a side effect of additional economizing principles, in particular minimization of articulatory effort and reduction of the marker inventory. More generally, the article illustrates a novel approach for studying how key features of human languages might emerge. PMID:23527055

Better models are more effectively connected models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, João Pedro; Bielders, Charles; Darboux, Frederic; Fiener, Peter; Finger, David; Turnbull-Lloyd, Laura; Wainwright, John

2016-04-01

The concept of hydrologic and geomorphologic connectivity describes the processes and pathways which link sources (e.g. rainfall, snow and ice melt, springs, eroded areas and barren lands) to accumulation areas (e.g. foot slopes, streams, aquifers, reservoirs), and the spatial variations thereof. There are many examples of hydrological and sediment connectivity on a watershed scale; in consequence, a process-based understanding of connectivity is crucial to help managers understand their systems and adopt adequate measures for flood prevention, pollution mitigation and soil protection, among others. Modelling is often used as a tool to understand and predict fluxes within a catchment by complementing observations with model results. Catchment models should therefore be able to reproduce the linkages, and thus the connectivity of water and sediment fluxes within the systems under simulation. In modelling, a high level of spatial and temporal detail is desirable to ensure taking into account a maximum number of components, which then enables connectivity to emerge from the simulated structures and functions. However, computational constraints and, in many cases, lack of data prevent the representation of all relevant processes and spatial/temporal variability in most models. In most cases, therefore, the level of detail selected for modelling is too coarse to represent the system in a way in which connectivity can emerge; a problem which can be circumvented by representing fine-scale structures and processes within coarser scale models using a variety of approaches. This poster focuses on the results of ongoing discussions on modelling connectivity held during several workshops within COST Action Connecteur. It assesses the current state of the art of incorporating the concept of connectivity in hydrological and sediment models, as well as the attitudes of modellers towards this issue. The discussion will focus on the different approaches through which connectivity can be represented in models: either by allowing it to emerge from model behaviour or by parameterizing it inside model structures; and on the appropriate scale at which processes should be represented explicitly or implicitly. It will also explore how modellers themselves approach connectivity through the results of a community survey. Finally, it will present the outline of an international modelling exercise aimed at assessing how different modelling concepts can capture connectivity in real catchments.

A systems approach to modeling Community-Based Environmental Monitoring: a case of participatory water quality monitoring in rural Mexico.

PubMed

Burgos, Ana; Páez, Rosaura; Carmona, Estela; Rivas, Hilda

2013-12-01

Community-Based Environmental Monitoring (CBM) is a social practice that makes a valuable contribution to environmental management and construction of active societies for sustainable future. However, its documentation and analysis show deficiencies that hinder contrast and comparison of processes and effects. Based on systems approach, this article presents a model of CBM to orient assessment of programs, with heuristic or practical goals. In a focal level, the model comprises three components, the social subject, the object of monitoring, and the means of action, and five processes, data management, social learning, assimilation/decision making, direct action, and linking. Emergent properties were also identified in the focal and suprafocal levels considering community self-organization, response capacity, and autonomy for environmental management. The model was applied to the assessment of a CBM program of water quality implemented in rural areas in Mexico. Attributes and variables (indicators) for components, processes, and emergent properties were selected to measure changes that emerged since the program implementation. The assessment of the first 3 years (2010-2012) detected changes that indicated movement towards the expected results, but it revealed also the need to adjust the intervention strategy and procedures. Components and processes of the model reflected relevant aspects of the CBM in real world. The component called means of action as a key element to transit "from the data to the action." The CBM model offered a conceptual framework with advantages to understand CBM as a socioecological event and to strengthen its implementation under different conditions and contexts.

From Data-Sharing to Model-Sharing: SCEC and the Development of Earthquake System Science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T. H.

2009-12-01

Earthquake system science seeks to construct system-level models of earthquake phenomena and use them to predict emergent seismic behavior—an ambitious enterprise that requires high degree of interdisciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration. This presentation will explore model-sharing structures that have been successful in promoting earthquake system science within the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). These include disciplinary working groups to aggregate data into community models; numerical-simulation working groups to investigate system-specific phenomena (process modeling) and further improve the data models (inverse modeling); and interdisciplinary working groups to synthesize predictive system-level models. SCEC has developed a cyberinfrastructure, called the Community Modeling Environment, that can distribute the community models; manage large suites of numerical simulations; vertically integrate the hardware, software, and wetware needed for system-level modeling; and promote the interactions among working groups needed for model validation and refinement. Various socio-scientific structures contribute to successful model-sharing. Two of the most important are “communities of trust” and collaborations between government and academic scientists on mission-oriented objectives. The latter include improvements of earthquake forecasts and seismic hazard models and the use of earthquake scenarios in promoting public awareness and disaster management.

Resonance, criticality, and emergence in city traffic investigated in cellular automaton models.

PubMed

Varas, A; Cornejo, M D; Toledo, B A; Muñoz, V; Rogan, J; Zarama, R; Valdivia, J A

2009-11-01

The complex behavior that occurs when traffic lights are synchronized is studied for a row of interacting cars. The system is modeled through a cellular automaton. Two strategies are considered: all lights in phase and a "green wave" with a propagating green signal. It is found that the mean velocity near the resonant condition follows a critical scaling law. For the green wave, it is shown that the mean velocity scaling law holds even for random separation between traffic lights and is not dependent on the density. This independence on car density is broken when random perturbations are considered in the car velocity. Random velocity perturbations also have the effect of leading the system to an emergent state, where cars move in clusters, but with an average velocity which is independent of traffic light switching for large injection rates.

Emergence of Scale-Free Leadership Structure in Social Recommender Systems

PubMed Central

Zhou, Tao; Medo, Matúš; Cimini, Giulio; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2011-01-01

The study of the organization of social networks is important for the understanding of opinion formation, rumor spreading, and the emergence of trends and fashion. This paper reports empirical analysis of networks extracted from four leading sites with social functionality (Delicious, Flickr, Twitter and YouTube) and shows that they all display a scale-free leadership structure. To reproduce this feature, we propose an adaptive network model driven by social recommending. Artificial agent-based simulations of this model highlight a “good get richer” mechanism where users with broad interests and good judgments are likely to become popular leaders for the others. Simulations also indicate that the studied social recommendation mechanism can gradually improve the user experience by adapting to tastes of its users. Finally we outline implications for real online resource-sharing systems. PMID:21857891

Current systems of coronal loops in 3D MHD simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warnecke, J.; Chen, F.; Bingert, S.; Peter, H.

2017-11-01

Aims: We study the magnetic field and current structure associated with a coronal loop. Through this we investigate to what extent the assumptions of a force-free magnetic field break down and where they might be justified. Methods: We analyze a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona in an emerging active region with the focus on the structure of the forming coronal loops. The lower boundary of this simulation is taken from a model of an emerging active region. As a consequence of the emerging magnetic flux and the horizontal motions at the surface a coronal loop forms self-consistently. We investigate the current density along magnetic field lines inside (and outside) this loop and study the magnetic and plasma properties in and around this loop. The loop is defined as the bundle of field lines that coincides with enhanced emission in extreme UV. Results: We find that the total current along the emerging loop changes its sign from being antiparallel to parallel to the magnetic field. This is caused by the inclination of the loop together with the footpoint motion. Around the loop, the currents form a complex non-force-free helical structure. This is directly related to a bipolar current structure at the loop footpoints at the base of the corona and a local reduction of the background magnetic field (I.e., outside the loop) caused by the plasma flow into and along the loop. Furthermore, the locally reduced magnetic pressure in the loop allows the loop to sustain a higher density, which is crucial for the emission in extreme UV. The action of the flow on the magnetic field hosting the loop turns out to also be responsible for the observed squashing of the loop. Conclusions: The complex magnetic field and current system surrounding it can only be modeled in 3D MHD models where the magnetic field has to balance the plasma pressure. A one-dimensional coronal loop model or a force-free extrapolation cannot capture the current system and the complex interaction of the plasma and the magnetic field in the coronal loop, despite the fact that the loop is under low-β conditions.

From creatures of habit to goal-directed learners: Tracking the developmental emergence of model-based reinforcement learning

PubMed Central

Decker, Johannes H.; Otto, A. Ross; Daw, Nathaniel D.; Hartley, Catherine A.

2016-01-01

Theoretical models distinguish two decision-making strategies that have been formalized in reinforcement-learning theory. A model-based strategy leverages a cognitive model of potential actions and their consequences to make goal-directed choices, whereas a model-free strategy evaluates actions based solely on their reward history. Research in adults has begun to elucidate the psychological mechanisms and neural substrates underlying these learning processes and factors that influence their relative recruitment. However, the developmental trajectory of these evaluative strategies has not been well characterized. In this study, children, adolescents, and adults, performed a sequential reinforcement-learning task that enables estimation of model-based and model-free contributions to choice. Whereas a model-free strategy was evident in choice behavior across all age groups, evidence of a model-based strategy only emerged during adolescence and continued to increase into adulthood. These results suggest that recruitment of model-based valuation systems represents a critical cognitive component underlying the gradual maturation of goal-directed behavior. PMID:27084852

Treatment Analysis in a Cancer Stem Cell Context Using a Tumor Growth Model Based on Cellular Automata.

PubMed

Monteagudo, Ángel; Santos, José

2015-01-01

Cancer can be viewed as an emergent behavior in terms of complex system theory and artificial life, Cellular Automata (CA) being the tool most used for studying and characterizing the emergent behavior. Different approaches with CA models were used to model cancer growth. The use of the abstract model of acquired cancer hallmarks permits the direct modeling at cellular level, where a cellular automaton defines the mitotic and apoptotic behavior of cells, and allows for an analysis of different dynamics of the cellular system depending on the presence of the different hallmarks. A CA model based on the presence of hallmarks in the cells, which includes a simulation of the behavior of Cancer Stem Cells (CSC) and their implications for the resultant growth behavior of the multicellular system, was employed. This modeling of cancer growth, in the avascular phase, was employed to analyze the effect of cancer treatments in a cancer stem cell context. The model clearly explains why, after treatment against non-stem cancer cells, the regrowth capability of CSCs generates a faster regrowth of tumor behavior, and also shows that a continuous low-intensity treatment does not favor CSC proliferation and differentiation, thereby allowing an unproblematic control of future tumor regrowth. The analysis performed indicates that, contrary to the current attempts at CSC control, trying to make CSC proliferation more difficult is an important point to consider, especially in the immediate period after a standard treatment for controlling non-stem cancer cell proliferation.

Why is combinatorial communication rare in the natural world, and why is language an exception to this trend?

PubMed

Scott-Phillips, Thomas C; Blythe, Richard A

2013-11-06

In a combinatorial communication system, some signals consist of the combinations of other signals. Such systems are more efficient than equivalent, non-combinatorial systems, yet despite this they are rare in nature. Why? Previous explanations have focused on the adaptive limits of combinatorial communication, or on its purported cognitive difficulties, but neither of these explains the full distribution of combinatorial communication in the natural world. Here, we present a nonlinear dynamical model of the emergence of combinatorial communication that, unlike previous models, considers how initially non-communicative behaviour evolves to take on a communicative function. We derive three basic principles about the emergence of combinatorial communication. We hence show that the interdependence of signals and responses places significant constraints on the historical pathways by which combinatorial signals might emerge, to the extent that anything other than the most simple form of combinatorial communication is extremely unlikely. We also argue that these constraints can be bypassed if individuals have the socio-cognitive capacity to engage in ostensive communication. Humans, but probably no other species, have this ability. This may explain why language, which is massively combinatorial, is such an extreme exception to nature's general trend for non-combinatorial communication.

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rendon, Samuel H.; Ashworth, Chad E.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2012-01-01

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and reliable water supplies, but they also entail risk: dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or misoperation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning the emergency response if a dam breach occurs. Accurate topographic data are vital for developing flood-inundation maps. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the city of Lawton, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to model dam-breach scenarios at Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the city of Lawton with completion of the emergency action plans for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka Dams, the USGS collected light detection and ranging (lidar) data that were used to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model and a 1-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains downstream from Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka. This digital elevation model and field measurements, streamflow-gaging station data (USGS streamflow-gaging station 07311000, East Cache Creek near Walters, Okla.), and hydraulic values were used as inputs for the dynamic (unsteady-flow) model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times for selected bridge crossings. Some areas of concern near the city of Lawton, if a dam breach occurs at Lakes Ellsworth or Lawtonka, include water treatment plants, wastewater treatment plants, recreational areas, and community-services offices.

Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division, Technical Digest

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-12-01

Survivability Systems: An Overview Fred J. Fisch 139 Modeling and Simulation of Weapons Effects on Ships Robert R. Wunderlick 143 Intelligent Networks ...communications capability of forces afloat to support emerging network -centric warfare doc- trines. Stealth, for our next generation of warships...fully-inte- grated, fully- networked electronic countermeasures system, developed in parallel and in close coordination with sister systems. An

Cluster dynamics and cluster size distributions in systems of self-propelled particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peruani, F.; Schimansky-Geier, L.; Bär, M.

2010-12-01

Systems of self-propelled particles (SPP) interacting by a velocity alignment mechanism in the presence of noise exhibit rich clustering dynamics. Often, clusters are responsible for the distribution of (local) information in these systems. Here, we investigate the properties of individual clusters in SPP systems, in particular the asymmetric spreading behavior of clusters with respect to their direction of motion. In addition, we formulate a Smoluchowski-type kinetic model to describe the evolution of the cluster size distribution (CSD). This model predicts the emergence of steady-state CSDs in SPP systems. We test our theoretical predictions in simulations of SPP with nematic interactions and find that our simple kinetic model reproduces qualitatively the transition to aggregation observed in simulations.

Modeling the photodegradation of emerging contaminants in waters by UV radiation and UV/H2O2 system.

PubMed

Benitez, F Javier; Acero, Juan L; Real, Francisco J; Roldan, Gloria; Rodriguez, Elena

2013-01-01

Five emerging contaminants (1-H-Benzotriazole, N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide or DEET, Chlorophene, 3-Methylindole, and Nortriptyline HCl), frequently found in surface waters and wastewaters, were selected to be photooxidized in several water matrices. Previous degradation experiments of these compounds individually dissolved in ultra pure water were performed by using UV radiation at 254 nm and the Fenton's reagent. These oxidation systems allowed the determination of the quantum yields and the rate constants for the radical reaction between each compound and hydroxyl radicals. Later, the simultaneous photodegradation of mixtures of the selected ECs in several types of water (ultrapure water, reservoir water, and two effluents from WWTPs) was carried out and a kinetic study was conducted. A model is proposed for the ECs elimination, and the theoretically calculated concentrations with this model agreed well with the experimental results obtained, which confirmed that it constitutes an excellent tool to predict the elimination of these compounds in waters.