Spatial variability of intake fractions for Canadian emission scenarios: a comparison between three resolution scales.

PubMed

Manneh, Rima; Margni, Manuele; Deschênes, Louise

2010-06-01

Spatially differentiated intake fractions (iFs) linked to Canadian emissions of toxic organic chemicals were developed using the multimedia and multipathways fate and exposure model IMPACT 2002. The fate and exposure of chemicals released to the Canadian environment were modeled with a single regional mass-balance model and three models that provided multiple mass-balance regions within Canada. These three models were based on the Canadian subwatersheds (172 zones), ecozones (15 zones), and provinces (13 zones). Releases of 32 organic chemicals into water and air were considered. This was done in order to (i) assess and compare the spatial variability of iFs within and across the three levels of regionalization and (ii) compare the spatial iFs to nonspatial ones. Results showed that iFs calculated using the subwatershed resolution presented a higher spatial variability (up to 10 orders of magnitude for emissions into water) than the ones based on the ecozones and provinces, implying that higher spatial resolution could potentially reduce uncertainty in iFs and, therefore, increase the discriminating power when assessing and comparing toxic releases for known emission locations. Results also indicated that, for an unknown emission location, a model with high spatial resolution such as the subwatershed model could significantly improve the accuracy of a generic iF. Population weighted iFs span up to 3 orders of magnitude compared to nonspatial iFs calculated by the one-box model. Less significant differences were observed when comparing spatial versus nonspatial iFs from the ecozones and provinces, respectively.

Global emissions of trace gases, particulate matter, and hazardous air pollutants from open burning of domestic waste.

PubMed

Wiedinmyer, Christine; Yokelson, Robert J; Gullett, Brian K

2014-08-19

The open burning of waste, whether at individual residences, businesses, or dump sites, is a large source of air pollutants. These emissions, however, are not included in many current emission inventories used for chemistry and climate modeling applications. This paper presents the first comprehensive and consistent estimates of the global emissions of greenhouse gases, particulate matter, reactive trace gases, and toxic compounds from open waste burning. Global emissions of CO2 from open waste burning are relatively small compared to total anthropogenic CO2; however, regional CO2 emissions, particularly in many developing countries in Asia and Africa, are substantial. Further, emissions of reactive trace gases and particulate matter from open waste burning are more significant on regional scales. For example, the emissions of PM10 from open domestic waste burning in China is equivalent to 22% of China's total reported anthropogenic PM10 emissions. The results of the emissions model presented here suggest that emissions of many air pollutants are significantly underestimated in current inventories because open waste burning is not included, consistent with studies that compare model results with available observations.

Seasonal variation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanxu; Tao, Shu

2008-12-01

A regression model based on the provincial energy consumption data was developed to calculate the monthly proportions of residential energy consumption compared to the total year volume. This model was also validated by comparing with some survey and statistical data. With this model, a PAHs emission inventory with seasonal variation was developed. The seasonal variations of different sources in different regions of China and the spatial distribution of the major sources in different seasons were also achieved. The PAHs emissions were larger in the winter than in the summer, with a difference of about 1.3-folds between the months with the largest and the smallest emissions. Residential solid fuel combustion dominated the pattern of seasonal variation with the winter-time emissions as much as 1.6 times as that in the summer, while the emissions from wild fires and open fire straw burning was mainly concentrated during the spring and summer.

Simulation of nitrous oxide effluxes, crop yields and soil physical properties using the LandscapeDNDC model in managed ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyckowiak, Jedrzej; Lesny, Jacek; Haas, Edwin; Juszczak, Radoslaw; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Olejnik, Janusz

2014-05-01

Modeling of nitrous oxide emissions from soil is very complex. Many different biological and chemical processes take place in soils which determine the amount of emitted nitrous oxide. Additionaly, biogeochemical models contain many detailed factors which may determine fluxes and other simulated variables. We used the LandscapeDNDC model in order to simulate N2O emissions, crop yields and soil physical properties from mineral cultivated soils in Poland. Nitrous oxide emissions from soils were modeled for fields with winter wheat, winter rye, spring barley, triticale, potatoes and alfalfa crops. Simulations were carried out for the plots of the Brody arable experimental station of Poznan University of Life Science in western Poland and covered the period 2003 - 2012. The model accuracy and its efficiency was determined by comparing simulations result with measurements of nitrous oxide emissions (measured with static chambers) from about 40 field campaigns. N2O emissions are strongly dependent on temperature and soil water content, hence we compared also simulated soil temperature at 10cm depth and soil water content at the same depth with the daily measured values of these driving variables. We compared also simulated yield quantities for each individual experimental plots with yield quantities which were measured in the period 2003-2012. We conclude that the LandscapeDNDC model is capable to simulate soil N2O emissions, crop yields and physical properties of soil with satisfactorily good accuracy and efficiency.

Arrhenius equation for modeling feedyard ammonia emissions using temperature and diet crude protein.

PubMed

Todd, Richard W; Cole, N Andy; Waldrip, Heidi M; Aiken, Robert M

2013-01-01

Temperature controls many processes of NH volatilization. For example, urea hydrolysis is an enzymatically catalyzed reaction described by the Arrhenius equation. Diet crude protein (CP) controls NH emission by affecting N excretion. Our objectives were to use the Arrhenius equation to model NH emissions from beef cattle () feedyards and test predictions against observed emissions. Per capita NH emission rate (PCER), air temperature (), and CP were measured for 2 yr at two Texas Panhandle feedyards. Data were fitted to analogs of the Arrhenius equation: PCER = () and PCER = (,CP). The models were applied at a third feedyard to predict NH emissions and compare predicted to measured emissions. Predicted mean NH emissions were within -9 and 2% of observed emissions for the () and (T,CP) models, respectively. Annual emission factors calculated from models underestimated annual NH emission by 11% [() model] or overestimated emission by 8% [(,CP) model]. When from a regional weather station and three classes of CP drove the models, the () model overpredicted annual NH emission of the low CP class by 14% and underpredicted emissions of the optimum and high CP classes by 1 and 39%, respectively. The (,CP) model underpredicted NH emissions by 15, 4, and 23% for low, optimum, and high CP classes, respectively. Ammonia emission was successfully modeled using only, but including CP improved predictions. The empirical () and (,CP) models can successfully model NH emissions in the Texas Panhandle. Researchers are encouraged to test the models in other regions where high-quality NH emissions data are available. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Propane Vehicle Emissions

Science.gov Websites

compared to conventional gasoline and diesel fuel. When used as a vehicle fuel, propane can offer life , processing, manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal or recycling. When comparing fuels, a life cycle GREET model estimates the life cycle petroleum use and GHG emissions for multiple fuels. When this model

Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

DOE PAGES

Edelenbosch, O. Y.; Kermeli, K.; Crijns-Graus, W.; ...

2017-01-09

The industry sector consumes more energy and emits more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than any other end-use sector. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system models have been widely used to evaluate climate policy at a global level, and include a representation of industrial energy use. In this study, the projected industrial energy use and accompanying GHG emissions, as well as the model structure of multiple long-term energy models are compared. The models show varying degrees to which energy consumption is decoupled from GDP growth in the future. In all models, the sector remains mostly (>50%) reliant on fossil energymore » through 2100 in a reference scenario (i.e., absent emissions mitigation policies), though there is significant divergence in the projected ability to switch to alternative fuels to mitigate GHG emissions. Among the set analyzed here, the more technologically detailed models tend to have less capacity for switching from fossil fuels to electricity. This highlights the importance of understanding of economy-wide mitigation responses and costs as an area for future improvement. Analyzing industry subsector material and energy use details can improve the ability to interpret results, and provide insight in feasibility of how emissions reduction can be achieved.« less

Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edelenbosch, O. Y.; Kermeli, K.; Crijns-Graus, W.

The industry sector consumes more energy and emits more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than any other end-use sector. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system models have been widely used to evaluate climate policy at a global level, and include a representation of industrial energy use. In this study, the projected industrial energy use and accompanying GHG emissions, as well as the model structure of multiple long-term energy models are compared. The models show varying degrees to which energy consumption is decoupled from GDP growth in the future. In all models, the sector remains mostly (>50%) reliant on fossil energymore » through 2100 in a reference scenario (i.e., absent emissions mitigation policies), though there is significant divergence in the projected ability to switch to alternative fuels to mitigate GHG emissions. Among the set analyzed here, the more technologically detailed models tend to have less capacity for switching from fossil fuels to electricity. This highlights the importance of understanding of economy-wide mitigation responses and costs as an area for future improvement. Analyzing industry subsector material and energy use details can improve the ability to interpret results, and provide insight in feasibility of how emissions reduction can be achieved.« less

Modelling the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions in the UK.

PubMed

Hellsten, S; Dragosits, U; Place, C J; Vieno, M; Dore, A J; Misselbrook, T H; Tang, Y S; Sutton, M A

2008-08-01

Ammonia emissions (NH3) are characterised by a high spatial variability at a local scale. When modelling the spatial distribution of NH3 emissions, it is important to provide robust emission estimates, since the model output is used to assess potential environmental impacts, e.g. exceedance of critical loads. The aim of this study was to provide a new, updated spatial NH3 emission inventory for the UK for the year 2000, based on an improved modelling approach and the use of updated input datasets. The AENEID model distributes NH3 emissions from a range of agricultural activities, such as grazing and housing of livestock, storage and spreading of manures, and fertilizer application, at a 1-km grid resolution over the most suitable landcover types. The results of the emission calculation for the year 2000 are analysed and the methodology is compared with a previous spatial emission inventory for 1996.

Comparison and evaluation of anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Meng; Klimont, Zbigniew; Zhang, Qiang; Martin, Randall V.; Zheng, Bo; Heyes, Chris; Cofala, Janusz; Zhang, Yuxuan; He, Kebin

2018-03-01

Bottom-up emission inventories provide primary understanding of sources of air pollution and essential input of chemical transport models. Focusing on SO2 and NOx, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of two widely used anthropogenic emission inventories over China, ECLIPSE and MIX, to explore the potential sources of uncertainties and find clues to improve emission inventories. We first compared the activity rates and emission factors used in two inventories and investigated the reasons of differences and the impacts on emission estimates. We found that SO2 emission estimates are consistent between two inventories (with 1 % differences), while NOx emissions in ECLIPSE's estimates are 16 % lower than those of MIX. The FGD (flue-gas desulfurization) device penetration rate and removal efficiency, LNB (low-NOx burner) application rate and abatement efficiency in power plants, emission factors of industrial boilers and various vehicle types, and vehicle fleet need further verification. Diesel consumptions are quite uncertain in current inventories. Discrepancies at the sectorial and provincial levels are much higher than those of the national total. We then examined the impacts of different inventories on model performance by using the nested GEOS-Chem model. We finally derived top-down emissions by using the retrieved columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) compared with the bottom-up estimates. High correlations were observed for SO2 between model results and OMI columns. For NOx, negative biases in bottom-up gridded emission inventories (-21 % for MIX, -39 % for ECLIPSE) were found compared to the satellite-based emissions. The emission trends from 2005 to 2010 estimated by two inventories were both consistent with satellite observations. The inventories appear to be fit for evaluation of the policies at an aggregated or national level; more work is needed in specific areas in order to improve the accuracy and robustness of outcomes at finer spatial and also technological levels. To our knowledge, this is the first work in which source comparisons detailed to technology-level parameters are made along with the remote sensing retrievals and chemical transport modeling. Through the comparison between bottom-up emission inventories and evaluation with top-down information, we identified potential directions for further improvement in inventory development.

Two-stroke S.I. engine competitive to four-stroke engine in terms of the exhaust emission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pavletic, R.; Trenc, F.

1994-09-01

A model engine with disintegrated working cycle was built. Its operation is not autonomous; compression of the working air is performed separately outside the engine by the compressed-air line supply. Pre-compressed charge together with the injected fuel is introduced in the combustion chamber. The model engine makes possible to determine indicated performance characteristics and its emission capability. Effective measured engine characteristics are of course not comparable with those obtained by a practical engine. The model presented is a two-stroke cycle engine. Exhaust emission picture of the presented engine is comparable with the emission of a modern four-stroke engine. 2 refs.,more » 13 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Development of a high temporal-spatial resolution vehicle emission inventory based on NRT traffic data and its impact on air pollution in Beijing - Part 1: Development and evaluation of vehicle emission inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, B. Y.; Wu, L.; Mao, H. J.; Gong, S. L.; He, J. J.; Zou, C.; Song, G. H.; Li, X. Y.; Wu, Z.

2015-10-01

As the ownership of vehicles and frequency of utilization increase, vehicle emissions have become an important source of air pollution in Chinese cities. An accurate emission inventory for on-road vehicles is necessary for numerical air quality simulation and the assessment of implementation strategies. This paper presents a bottom-up methodology based on the local emission factors, complemented with the widely used emission factors of Computer Programme to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) model and near real time (NRT) traffic data on road segments to develop a high temporal-spatial resolution vehicle emission inventory (HTSVE) for the urban Beijing area. To simulate real-world vehicle emissions accurately, the road has been divided into segments according to the driving cycle (traffic speed) on this road segment. The results show that the vehicle emissions of NOx, CO, HC and PM were 10.54 × 104, 42.51 × 104 and 2.13 × 104 and 0.41 × 104 Mg, respectively. The vehicle emissions and fuel consumption estimated by the model were compared with the China Vehicle Emission Control Annual Report and fuel sales thereafter. The grid-based emissions were also compared with the vehicular emission inventory developed by the macro-scale approach. This method indicates that the bottom-up approach better estimates the levels and spatial distribution of vehicle emissions than the macro-scale method, which relies on more information. Additionally, the on-road vehicle emission inventory model and control effect assessment system in Beijing, a vehicle emission inventory model, was established based on this study in a companion paper (He et al., 2015).

Seasonal Variation and Ecosystem Dependence of Emission Factors for Selected Trace Gases and PM2.5 for Southern African Savanna Fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korontzi, S.; Ward, D. E.; Susott, R. A.; Yokelson, R. J.; Justice, C. O.; Hobbs, P. V.; Smithwick, E. A. H.; Hao, W. M.

2003-01-01

In this paper we present the first early dry season (early June-early August) emission factor measurements for carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (Ca), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and particulates with a diameter less than 2.5 microns (pM2.5) for southern African grassland and woodland fires. Seasonal emission factors for grassland fires correlate linearly with the proportion of green grass, used as a surrogate for the fuel moisture content, and are higher for products of incomplete combustion in the early part of the dry season compared with later in the dry season. Models of emission factors for NMHC and PM(sub 2.5) versus modified combustion efficiency (MCE) are statistically different in grassland compared with woodland ecosystems. We compare predictions based on the integration of emissions factors from this study, from the southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative 1992 (SAFARI-92), and from SAFARI-2000 with those based on the smaller set of ecosystem-specific emission factors to estimate the effects of using regional-average rather than ecosystem-specific emission factors. We also test the validity of using the SAFARI-92 models for emission factors versus MCE to predict the early dry season emission factors measured in this study. The comparison indicates that the largest discrepancies occur at the low end (0.907) and high end (0.972) of MCE values measured in this study. Finally, we combine our models of MCE versus proportion of green grass for grassland fires with emission factors versus MCE for selected oxygenated volatile organic compounds measured in the SAFARI-2000 campaign to derive the first seasonal emission factors for these compounds. The results of this study demonstrate that seasonal variations in savanna fire emissions are important and should be considered in modeling emissions at regional to continental scales.

Vehicle-specific emissions modeling based upon on-road measurements.

PubMed

Frey, H Christopher; Zhang, Kaishan; Rouphail, Nagui M

2010-05-01

Vehicle-specific microscale fuel use and emissions rate models are developed based upon real-world hot-stabilized tailpipe measurements made using a portable emissions measurement system. Consecutive averaging periods of one to three multiples of the response time are used to compare two semiempirical physically based modeling schemes. One scheme is based on internally observable variables (IOVs), such as engine speed and manifold absolute pressure, while the other is based on externally observable variables (EOVs), such as speed, acceleration, and road grade. For NO, HC, and CO emission rates, the average R(2) ranged from 0.41 to 0.66 for the former and from 0.17 to 0.30 for the latter. The EOV models have R(2) for CO(2) of 0.43 to 0.79 versus 0.99 for the IOV models. The models are sensitive to episodic events in driving cycles such as high acceleration. Intervehicle and fleet average modeling approaches are compared; the former account for microscale variations that might be useful for some types of assessments. EOV-based models have practical value for traffic management or simulation applications since IOVs usually are not available or not used for emission estimation.

Secondary emission from dust grains: Comparison of experimental and model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richterova, I.; Pavlu, J.; Nemecek, Z.; Safrankova, J.; Zilavy, P.

The motion, coalescence, and other processes in dust clouds are determined by the dust charge. Since dust grains in the space are bombarded by energetic electrons, the secondary emission is an important process contributing to their charge. It is generally expected that the secondary emission yield is related to surface properties of the bombarded body. However, it is well known that secondary emission from small bodies is determined not only by their composition but an effect of dimension can be very important when the penetration depth of primary electrons is comparable with the grain size. It implies that the secondary emission yield can be influenced by the substrate material if the surface layer is thin enough. We have developed a simple Monte Carlo model of secondary emission that was successfully applied on the dust simulants from glass and melanine formaldehyd (MF) resin and matched very well experimental results. In order to check the influence of surface layers, we have modified the model for spheres covered by a layer with different material properties. The results of model simulations are compared with measurements on MF spheres covered by different metals.

Evaluating commercial marine emissions and their role in air quality policy using observations and the CMAQ model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, Allison M.; Canty, Timothy P.; Anderson, Daniel C.; Vinciguerra, Timothy P.; He, Hao; Goldberg, Daniel L.; Ehrman, Sheryl H.; Dickerson, Russell R.; Salawitch, Ross J.

2018-01-01

We investigate the representation of emissions from the largest (Class 3) commercial marine vessels (c3 Marine) within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. In present emissions inventories developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), c3 Marine emissions are divided into off-shore and near-shore files. Off-shore c3 Marine emissions are vertically distributed within the atmospheric column, reflecting stack-height and plume rise. Near-shore c3 Marine emissions, located close to the US shoreline, are erroneously assumed to occur only at the surface. We adjust the near-shore c3 Marine emissions inventory by vertically distributing these emissions to be consistent with the off-shore c3 Marine inventory. Additionally, we remove near-shore c3 Marine emissions that overlap with off-shore c3 Marine emissions within the EPA files. The CMAQ model generally overestimates surface ozone (O3) compared to Air Quality System (AQS) site observations, with the largest discrepancies occurring near coastal waterways. We compare modeled O3 from two CMAQ simulations for June, July, and August (JJA) 2011 to surface O3 observations from AQS sites to examine the efficacy of the c3 Marine emissions improvements. Model results at AQS sites show average maximum 8-hr surface O3 decreases up to ∼6.5 ppb along the Chesapeake Bay, and increases ∼3-4 ppb around Long Island Sound, when the adjusted c3 Marine emissions are used. Along with the c3 Marine emissions adjustments, we reduce on-road mobile NOX emissions by 50%, motivated by work from Anderson et al. 2014, and reduce the lifetime of the alkyl nitrate species group from ∼10 days to ∼1 day based on work by Canty et al. 2015, to develop the ;c3 Science; model scenario. Simulations with these adjustments further improve model representation of the atmosphere. We calculate the ratio of column formaldehyde (HCHO) and tropospheric column nitrogen dioxide (NO2) using observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and CMAQ model output to investigate the photochemical O3 production regime (VOC or NOX-limited) of the observed and modeled atmosphere. Compared to the baseline, the c3 Science model scenario more closely simulates the HCHO/NO2 ratio calculated from OMI data. Model simulations for JJA 2018 using the c3 Science scenario show a reduction of surface O3 by as much as ∼13 ppb for areas around the Chesapeake Bay and ∼2-3 ppb at locations in NY and CT downwind of New York City. These reductions are larger in 2018 than in 2011 due to a change in the photochemical O3 production regime in the Long Island Sound region and the projected decline of other (non-c3 Marine) sources of O3 precursors, highlighting the importance of proper representation of c3 Marine emissions in future modeling scenarios.

Model for estimating enteric methane emissions from United States dairy and feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Kebreab, E; Johnson, K A; Archibeque, S L; Pape, D; Wirth, T

2008-10-01

Methane production from enteric fermentation in cattle is one of the major sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the United States and worldwide. National estimates of methane emissions rely on mathematical models such as the one recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Models used for prediction of methane emissions from cattle range from empirical to mechanistic with varying input requirements. Two empirical and 2 mechanistic models (COWPOLL and MOLLY) were evaluated for their prediction ability using individual cattle measurements. Model selection was based on mean square prediction error (MSPE), concordance correlation coefficient, and residuals vs. predicted values analyses. In dairy cattle, COWPOLL had the lowest root MSPE and greatest accuracy and precision of predicting methane emissions (correlation coefficient estimate = 0.75). The model simulated differences in diet more accurately than the other models, and the residuals vs. predicted value analysis showed no mean bias (P = 0.71). In feedlot cattle, MOLLY had the lowest root MSPE with almost all errors from random sources (correlation coefficient estimate = 0.69). The IPCC model also had good agreement with observed values, and no significant mean (P = 0.74) or linear bias (P = 0.11) was detected when residuals were plotted against predicted values. A fixed methane conversion factor (Ym) might be an easier alternative to diet-dependent variable Ym. Based on the results, the 2 mechanistic models were used to simulate methane emissions from representative US diets and were compared with the IPCC model. The average Ym in dairy cows was 5.63% of GE (range 3.78 to 7.43%) compared with 6.5% +/- 1% recommended by IPCC. In feedlot cattle, the average Ym was 3.88% (range 3.36 to 4.56%) compared with 3% +/- 1% recommended by IPCC. Based on our simulations, using IPCC values can result in an overestimate of about 12.5% and underestimate of emissions by about 9.8% for dairy and feedlot cattle, respectively. In addition to providing improved estimates of emissions based on diets, mechanistic models can be used to assess mitigation options such as changing source of carbohydrate or addition of fat to decrease methane, which is not possible with empirical models. We recommend national inventories use diet-specific Ym values predicted by mechanistic models to estimate methane emissions from cattle.

A comparison of emission calculations using different modeled indicators with 1-year online measurements.

PubMed

Lengers, Bernd; Schiefler, Inga; Büscher, Wolfgang

2013-12-01

The overall measurement of farm level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dairy production is not feasible, from either an engineering or administrative point of view. Instead, computational model systems are used to generate emission inventories, demanding a validation by measurement data. This paper tests the GHG calculation of the dairy farm-level optimization model DAIRYDYN, including methane (CH₄) from enteric fermentation and managed manure. The model involves four emission calculation procedures (indicators), differing in the aggregation level of relevant input variables. The corresponding emission factors used by the indicators range from default per cow (activity level) emissions up to emission factors based on feed intake, manure amount, and milk production intensity. For validation of the CH₄ accounting of the model, 1-year CH₄ measurements of an experimental free-stall dairy farm in Germany are compared to model simulation results. An advantage of this interdisciplinary study is given by the correspondence of the model parameterization and simulation horizon with the experimental farm's characteristics and measurement period. The results clarify that modeled emission inventories (2,898, 4,637, 4,247, and 3,600 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1)) lead to more or less good approximations of online measurements (average 3,845 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1) (±275 owing to manure management)) depending on the indicator utilized. The more farm-specific characteristics are used by the GHG indicator; the lower is the bias of the modeled emissions. Results underline that an accurate emission calculation procedure should capture differences in energy intake, owing to milk production intensity as well as manure storage time. Despite the differences between indicator estimates, the deviation of modeled GHGs using detailed indicators in DAIRYDYN from on-farm measurements is relatively low (between -6.4% and 10.5%), compared with findings from the literature.

Towards Interpreting the Signal of CO2 Emissions from Megacities by Applying a Lagrangian Receptor-oriented Model to OCO-2 XCO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Lin, J. C.; Oda, T.; Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Yang, E. G.; Kort, E. A.

2017-12-01

Urban regions are large emitters of CO2 whose emission inventories are still associated with large uncertainties. Therefore, a strong need exists to better quantify emissions from megacities using a top-down approach. Satellites — e.g., the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), provide a platform for monitoring spatiotemporal column CO2 concentrations (XCO2). In this study, we present a Lagrangian receptor-oriented model framework and evaluate "model-retrieved" XCO2 by comparing against OCO-2-retrieved XCO2, for three megacities/regions (Riyadh, Cairo and Pearl River Delta). OCO-2 soundings indicate pronounced XCO2 enhancements (dXCO2) when crossing Riyadh, which are successfully captured by our model with a slight latitude shift. From this model framework, we can identify and compare the relative contributions of dXCO2 resulted from anthropogenic emission versus biospheric fluxes. In addition, to impose constraints on emissions for Riyadh through inversion methods, three uncertainties sources are addressed in this study, including 1) transport errors, 2) receptor and model setups in atmospheric models, and 3) urban emission uncertainties. For 1), we calculate transport errors by adding a wind error component to randomize particle distributions. For 2), a set of sensitivity tests using bootstrap method is performed to describe proper ways to setup receptors in Lagrangian models. For 3), both emission uncertainties from the Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS) and the spread among three emission inventories are used to approximate an overall fractional uncertainty in modeled anthropogenic signal (dXCO2.anthro). Lastly, we investigate the definition of background (clean) XCO2 for megacities from retrieved XCO2 by means of statistical tools and our model framework.

Coronal Heating: Testing Models of Coronal Heating by Forward-Modeling the AIA Emission of the Ansample of Coronal Loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanushenko, A. V.

2015-12-01

We present a systemic exploration of the properties of coronal heating, by forward-modeling the emission of the ensemble of 1D quasi-steady loops. This approximations were used in many theoretical models of the coronal heating. The latter is described in many such models in the form of power laws, relating heat flux through the photosphere or volumetric heating to the strength of the magnetic field and length of a given field line. We perform a large search in the parameter space of these power laws, amongst other variables, and compare the resulting emission of the active region to that observed by AIA. We use a recently developed magnetic field model which uses shapes of coronal loops to guide the magnetic model; the result closely resembles observed structures by design. We take advantage of this, by comparing, in individual sub-regions of the active region, the emission of the active region and its synthetic model. This study allows us to rule out many theoretical models and formulate predictions for the heating models to come.

Evaluate transport processes in MERRA driven chemical transport models using updated 222Rn emission inventories and global observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Liu, H.; Crawford, J. H.; Fairlie, T. D.; Chen, G.; Chambers, S. D.; Kang, C. H.; Williams, A. G.; Zhang, K.; Considine, D. B.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Yantosca, R.

2015-12-01

Convective and synoptic processes play a major role in determining the transport and distribution of trace gases and aerosols in the troposphere. The representation of these processes in global models (at ~100-1000 km horizontal resolution) is challenging, because convection is a sub-grid process and needs to be parameterized, while synoptic processes are close to the grid scale. Depending on the parameterization schemes used in climate models, the role of convection in transporting trace gases and aerosols may vary from model to model. 222Rn is a chemically inert and radioactive gas constantly emitted from soil and has a half-life (3.8 days) comparable to synoptic timescale, which makes it an effective tracer for convective and synoptic transport. In this study, we evaluate the convective and synoptic transport in two chemical transport models (GMI and GEOS-Chem), both driven by the NASA's MERRA reanalysis. Considering the uncertainties in 222Rn emissions, we incorporate two more recent scenarios with regionally varying 222Rn emissions into GEOS-Chem/MERRA and compare the simulation results with those using the relatively uniform 222Rn emissions in the standard model. We evaluate the global distribution and seasonality of 222Rn concentrations simulated by the two models against an extended collection of 222Rn observations from 1970s to 2010s. The intercomparison will improve our understanding of the spatial variability in global 222Rn emissions, including the suspected excessive 222Rn emissions in East Asia, and provide useful feedbacks on 222Rn emission models. We will assess 222Rn vertical distributions at different latitudes in the models using observations at surface sites and in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Results will be compared with previous models driven by other meteorological fields (e.g., fvGCM and GEOS4). Since the decay of 222Rn is the source of 210Pb, a useful radionuclide tracer attached to submicron aerosols, improved understanding of emissions and transport of 222Rn will provide insights into the transport, distribution, and wet deposition of 210Pb aerosols.

Comparison of different modeling approaches to better evaluate greenhouse gas emissions from whole wastewater treatment plants.

PubMed

Corominas, Lluís; Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Snip, Laura; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

2012-11-01

New tools are being developed to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). There is a trend to move from empirical factors to simple comprehensive and more complex process-based models. Thus, the main objective of this study is to demonstrate the importance of using process-based dynamic models to better evaluate GHG emissions. This is tackled by defining a virtual case study based on the whole plant Benchmark Simulation Model Platform No. 2 (BSM2) and estimating GHG emissions using two approaches: (1) a combination of simple comprehensive models based on empirical assumptions and (2) a more sophisticated approach, which describes the mechanistic production of nitrous oxide (N(2) O) in the biological reactor (ASMN) and the generation of carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) and methane (CH(4) ) from the Anaerobic Digestion Model 1 (ADM1). Models already presented in literature are used, but modifications compared to the previously published ASMN model have been made. Also model interfaces between the ASMN and the ADM1 models have been developed. The results show that the use of the different approaches leads to significant differences in the N(2) O emissions (a factor of 3) but not in the CH(4) emissions (about 4%). Estimations of GHG emissions are also compared for steady-state and dynamic simulations. Averaged values for GHG emissions obtained with steady-state and dynamic simulations are rather similar. However, when looking at the dynamics of N(2) O emissions, large variability (3-6 ton CO(2) e day(-1) ) is observed due to changes in the influent wastewater C/N ratio and temperature which would not be captured by a steady-state analysis (4.4 ton CO(2) e day(-1) ). Finally, this study also shows the effect of changing the anaerobic digestion volume on the total GHG emissions. Decreasing the anaerobic digester volume resulted in a slight reduction in CH(4) emissions (about 5%), but significantly decreased N(2) O emissions in the water line (by 14%). Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impacts of Energy Sector Emissions on PM2.5 Air Quality in Northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karambelas, A. N.; Kiesewetter, G.; Heyes, C.; Holloway, T.

2015-12-01

India experiences high concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and several Indian cities currently rank among the world's most polluted cities. With ongoing urbanization and a growing economy, emissions from different energy sectors remain major contributors to air pollution in India. Emission sectors impact ambient air quality differently due to spatial distribution (typical urban vs. typical rural sources) as well as source height characteristics (low-level vs. high stack sources). This study aims to assess the impacts of emissions from three distinct energy sectors—transportation, domestic, and electricity—on ambient PM2.5­­ in northern India using an advanced air quality analysis framework based on the U.S. EPA Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Present air quality conditions are simulated using 2010 emissions from the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model. Modeled PM2.5 concentrations are compared with satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2010. Energy sector emissions impacts on future (2030) PM2.5 are evaluated with three sensitivity simulations, assuming maximum feasible reduction technologies for either transportation, domestic, or electricity sectors. These simulations are compared with a business as usual 2030 simulation to assess relative sectoral impacts spatially and temporally. CMAQ is modeled at 12km by 12km and include biogenic emissions from the Community Land Model coupled with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols in Nature (CLM-MEGAN), biomass burning emissions from the Global Fires Emissions Database (GFED), and ERA-Interim meteorology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for 2010 to quantify the impact of modified anthropogenic emissions on ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Energy sector emissions analysis supports decision-making to improve future air quality and public health in India.

Challenges in global modeling of wetland extent and wetland methane dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahni, R.; Melton, J. R.; Wania, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Zürcher, S.; Joos, F.

2012-12-01

Global wetlands are known to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. Modelling of global wetland extent and wetland CH4 dynamics remains a challenge. Here we present results from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) that investigated our present ability to simulate large scale wetland characteristics (e.g. wetland type, water table, carbon cycling, gas transport, etc.) and corresponding CH4 emissions. Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The WETCHIMP experiments showed that while models disagree in spatial and temporal patterns of simulated CH4 emissions and wetland areal extent, they all do agree on a strong positive response to increased carbon dioxide concentrations. WETCHIMP made clear that we currently lack observation data sets that are adequate to evaluate model CH4 soil-atmosphere fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells. Thus there are substantial parameter and structural uncertainties in large-scale CH4 emission models. As an illustration of the implications of CH4 emissions on climate we show results of the LPX-Bern model, as one of the models participating in WETCHIMP. LPX-Bern is forced with observed 20th century climate and climate output from an ensemble of five comprehensive climate models for a low and a high emission scenario till 2100 AD. In the high emission scenario increased substrate availability for methanogenesis due to a strong stimulation of net primary productivity, and faster soil turnover leads to an amplification of CH4 emissions with the sharpest increase in peatlands (+180% compared to present). Combined with prescribed anthropogenic CH4 emissions, simulated atmospheric CH4 concentration reaches ~4500 ppbv by 2100 AD, about 800 ppbv more than in standard IPCC scenarios. This represents a significant contribution to radiative forcing of global climate.

Dynamic evaluation of CMAQ part I: Separating the effects of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.0.1 was conducted to evaluate the model's ability to predict changes in ozone levels between 2002 and 2005, a time period characterized by emission reductions associated with the EPA's Nitrogen Oxides State Implementation Plan as well as significant reductions in mobile source emissions. Model results for the summers of 2002 and 2005 were compared to simulations from a previous version of CMAQ to assess the impact of model updates on predicted pollutant response. Changes to the model treatment of emissions, meteorology and chemistry had substantial impacts on the simulated ozone concentrations. While the median bias for high summertime ozone decreased in both years compared to previous simulations, the observed decrease in ozone from 2002 to 2005 in the eastern US continued to be underestimated by the model. Additional “cross” simulations were used to decompose the model predicted change in ozone into the change due to emissions, the change due to meteorology and any remaining change not explained individually by these two components. The decomposition showed that the emission controls led to a decrease in modeled high summertime ozone close to twice as large as the decrease attributable to changes in meteorology alone. Quantifying the impact of retrospective emission controls by removing the impacts of meteorology during the control period can be a valuable approac

Comparison of emission factors for road traffic from a tunnel study (Gubrist tunnel, Switzerland) and from emission modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

John, Christian; Friedrich, Rainer; Staehelin, Johannes; Schläpfer, Kurt; Stahel, Werner A.

The emission factors of NO x, VOC and CO of a road tunnel study performed in September 1993 in the Gubrist tunnel, close to Zürich (Switzerland) are compared with results of emission calculations based on recent results of dynamometric test measurements. The emission calculations are carried out with a traffic emission model taking into account the detailed composition of the vehicle fleet in the tunnel, the average speed and the gradient of the road and the special aerodynamics in a tunnel. With the exception of NO x emission factors for heavy duty vehicles no evidence for a discrepancy between the results of the tunnel study and the emission modeling was found. The measured emission factors of individual hydrocarbons of light duty vehicles were in good agreement with the expectations for most components.

Constraining the uncertainty in emissions over India with a regional air quality model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karambelas, Alexandra; Holloway, Tracey; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Heyes, Chris

2018-02-01

To evaluate uncertainty in the spatial distribution of air emissions over India, we compare satellite and surface observations with simulations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Seasonally representative simulations were completed for January, April, July, and October 2010 at 36 km × 36 km using anthropogenic emissions from the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model following version 5a of the Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants project (ECLIPSE v5a). We use both tropospheric columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and surface observations from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) to closely examine modeled nitrogen dioxide (NO2) biases in urban and rural regions across India. Spatial average evaluation with satellite retrievals indicate a low bias in the modeled tropospheric column (-63.3%), which reflects broad low-biases in majority non-urban regions (-70.1% in rural areas) across the sub-continent to slightly lesser low biases reflected in semi-urban areas (-44.7%), with the threshold between semi-urban and rural defined as 400 people per km2. In contrast, modeled surface NO2 concentrations exhibit a slight high bias of +15.6% when compared to surface CPCB observations predominantly located in urban areas. Conversely, in examining extremely population dense urban regions with more than 5000 people per km2 (dense-urban), we find model overestimates in both the column (+57.8) and at the surface (+131.2%) compared to observations. Based on these results, we find that existing emission fields for India may overestimate urban emissions in densely populated regions and underestimate rural emissions. However, if we rely on model evaluation with predominantly urban surface observations from the CPCB, comparisons reflect model high biases, contradictory to the knowledge gained using satellite observations. Satellites thus serve as an important emissions and model evaluation metric where surface observations are lacking, such as rural India, and support improved emissions inventory development.

Emissions from prescribed burning of agricultural fields in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

A. L. Holder; B. K. Gullett; S. P. Urbanski; R. Elleman; S. O' Neill; D. Tabor; W. Mitchell; K. R. Baker

2017-01-01

Prescribed burns of winter wheat stubble and Kentucky bluegrass fields in northern Idaho and eastern Washington states (U.S.A.) were sampled using ground-, aerostat-, airplane-, and laboratory-based measurement platforms to determine emission factors, compare methods, and provide a current and comprehensive set of emissions data for air quality models, climate models,...

Differences Between the HUT Snow Emission Model and MEMLS and Their Effects on Brightness Temperature Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pan, Jinmei; Durand, Michael; Sandells, Melody; Lemmetyinen, Juha; Kim, Edward J.; Pulliainen, Jouni; Kontu, Anna; Derksen, Chris

2015-01-01

Microwave emission models are a critical component of snow water equivalent retrieval algorithms applied to passive microwave measurements. Several such emission models exist, but their differences need to be systematically compared. This paper compares the basic theories of two models: the multiple-layer HUT (Helsinki University of Technology) model and MEMLS (Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks). By comparing the mathematical formulation side-by-side, three major differences were identified: (1) by assuming the scattered intensity is mostly (96) in the forward direction, the HUT model simplifies the radiative transfer (RT) equation into 1-flux; whereas MEMLS uses a 2-flux theory; (2) the HUT scattering coefficient is much larger than MEMLS; (3 ) MEMLS considers the trapped radiation inside snow due to internal reflection by a 6-flux model, which is not included in HUT. Simulation experiments indicate that, the large scattering coefficient of the HUT model compensates for its large forward scattering ratio to some extent, but the effects of 1-flux simplification and the trapped radiation still result in different T(sub B) simulations between the HUT model and MEMLS. The models were compared with observations of natural snow cover at Sodankyl, Finland; Churchill, Canada; and Colorado, USA. No optimization of the snow grain size was performed. It shows that HUT model tends to under estimate T(sub B) for deep snow. MEMLS with the physically-based improved Born approximation performed best among the models, with a bias of -1.4 K, and an RMSE of 11.0 K.

Microcomputer pollution model for civilian airports and Air Force bases. Model description

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Segal, H.M.; Hamilton, P.L.

1988-08-01

This is one of three reports describing the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS). EDMS is a complex source emissions/dispersion model for use at civilian airports and Air Force bases. It operates in both a refined and a screening mode and is programmed for an IBM-XT (or compatible) computer. This report--MODEL DESCRIPTION--provides the technical description of the model. It first identifies the key design features of both the emissions (EMISSMOD) and dispersion (GIMM) portions of EDMS. It then describes the type of meteorological information the dispersion model can accept and identifies the manner in which it preprocesses National Climatic Centermore » (NCC) data prior to a refined-model run. The report presents the results of running EDMS on a number of different microcomputers and compares EDMS results with those of comparable models. The appendices elaborate on the information noted above and list the source code.« less

[Emission Factors of Vehicle Exhaust in Beijing].

PubMed

Fan, Shou-bin; Tian, Ling-di; Zhang, Dong-xu; Qu, Song

2015-07-01

Based on the investigation of basic data such as vehicle type composition, driving conditions, ambient temperature and oil quality, etc., emission factors of vehicle exhaust pollutants including carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), hydrocarbons (HC) and particulate matter(PM) were calculated using COPERT IV model. Emission factors of typical gasoline passenger cars and diesel trucks were measured using on-board measurement system on actual road. The measured and modeled emission factors were compared and the results showed that: the measured emission factors of CO, NOx and HC were 0. 96, 0. 64 and 4. 89 times of the modeled data for passenger cars conforming to the national IV emission standard. For the light, medium and heavy diesel trucks conforming to the national III emission standard, the measured data of CO emission factors were 1.61, 1. 07 and 1.76 times of the modeled data, respectively, the measured data of NOx emission factors were 1. 04, 1. 21 and 1. 18 times of the modeled data, and the measured data of HC emission factors were 3. 75, 1. 84 and 1. 47 times of the modeled data, while the model data of PM emission factors were 1. 31, 3. 42 and 6. 42 times of the measured data, respectively.

Diffusion-controlled reference material for VOC emissions testing: proof of concept.

PubMed

Cox, S S; Liu, Z; Little, J C; Howard-Reed, C; Nabinger, S J; Persily, A

2010-10-01

Because of concerns about indoor air quality, there is growing awareness of the need to reduce the rate at which indoor materials and products emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs). To meet consumer demand for low emitting products, manufacturers are increasingly submitting materials to independent laboratories for emissions testing. However, the same product tested by different laboratories can result in very different emissions profiles because of a general lack of test validation procedures. There is a need for a reference material that can be used as a known emissions source and that will have the same emission rate when tested by different laboratories under the same conditions. A reference material was created by loading toluene into a polymethyl pentene film. A fundamental emissions model was used to predict the toluene emissions profile. Measured VOC emissions profiles using small-chamber emissions tests compared reasonably well to the emissions profile predicted using the emissions model, demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed approach to create a diffusion-controlled reference material. To calibrate emissions test chambers and improve the reproducibility of VOC emission measurements among different laboratories, a reference material has been created using a polymer film loaded with a representative VOC. Initial results show that the film's VOC emission profile measured in a conventional test chamber compares well to predictions based on independently determined material/chemical properties and a fundamental emissions model. The use of such reference materials has the potential to build consensus and confidence in emissions testing as well as 'level the playing field' for product testing laboratories and manufacturers.

An emission processing system for air quality modelling in the Mexico City metropolitan area: Evaluation and comparison of the MOBILE6.2-Mexico and MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions.

PubMed

Guevara, M; Tena, C; Soret, A; Serradell, K; Guzmán, D; Retama, A; Camacho, P; Jaimes-Palomera, M; Mediavilla, A

2017-04-15

This article describes the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System for Mexico (HERMES-Mex) model, an emission processing tool developed to transform the official Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) emission inventory into hourly, gridded (up to 1km 2 ) and speciated emissions used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The methods and ancillary information used for the spatial and temporal disaggregation and speciation of the emissions are presented and discussed. The resulting emission system is evaluated, and a case study on CO, NO 2 , O 3 , VOC and PM 2.5 concentrations is conducted to demonstrate its applicability. Moreover, resulting traffic emissions from the Mobile Source Emission Factor Model for Mexico (MOBILE6.2-Mexico) and the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator for Mexico (MOVES-Mexico) models are integrated in the tool to assess and compare their performance. NO x and VOC total emissions modelled are reduced by 37% and 26% in the MCMA when replacing MOBILE6.2-Mexico for MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions. In terms of air quality, the system composed by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the HERMES-Mex and CMAQ models properly reproduces the pollutant levels and patterns measured in the MCMA. The system's performance clearly improves in urban stations with a strong influence of traffic sources when applying MOVES-Mexico emissions. Despite reducing estimations of modelled precursor emissions, O 3 peak averages are increased in the MCMA core urban area (up to 30ppb) when using MOVES-Mexico mobile emissions due to its VOC-limited regime, while concentrations in the surrounding suburban/rural areas decrease or increase depending on the meteorological conditions of the day. The results obtained suggest that the HERMES-Mex model can be used to provide model-ready emissions for air quality modelling in the MCMA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparing GOSAT Observations of Localized CO2 Enhancements by Large Emitters with Inventory-Based Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janardanan, Rajesh; Maksyutov, Shamil; Oda, Tomohiro; Saito, Makoto; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Ganshin, Alexander; Stohl, Andreas; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Yoshida, Yukio; Yokota, Tatsuya

2016-01-01

We employed an atmospheric transport model to attribute column-averaged CO2 mixing ratios (XCO2) observed by Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to emissions due to large sources such as megacities and power plants. XCO2 enhancements estimated from observations were compared to model simulations implemented at the spatial resolution of the satellite observation footprint (0.1deg × 0.1deg). We found that the simulated XCO2 enhancements agree with the observed over several continental regions across the globe, for example, for North America with an observation to simulation ratio of 1.05 +/- 0.38 (p<0.1), but with a larger ratio over East Asia (1.22 +/- 0.32; p<0.05). The obtained observation-model discrepancy (22%) for East Asia is comparable to the uncertainties in Chinese emission inventories (approx.15%) suggested by recent reports. Our results suggest that by increasing the number of observations around emission sources, satellite instruments like GOSAT can provide a tool for detecting biases in reported emission inventories.

Development and Evaluation of the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) Model v3.6

EPA Science Inventory

We have developed new canopy emission algorithms and land use data for BEIS v3.6. Simulations with BEIS v3.4 and BEIS v3.6 in CMAQ v5.0.2 are compared these changes to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and evaluated the simulations against observati...

Improving bioaerosol exposure assessments of composting facilities — Comparative modelling of emissions from different compost ages and processing activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, M. P. M.; Drew, G. H.; Tamer, A.; Hewings, G.; Jordinson, G. M.; Longhurst, P. J.; Pollard, S. J. T.

We present bioaerosol source term concentrations from passive and active composting sources and compare emissions from green waste compost aged 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12 and 16 weeks. Results reveal that the age of compost has little effect on the bioaerosol concentrations emitted for passive windrow sources. However emissions from turning compost during the early stages may be higher than during the later stages of the composting process. The bioaerosol emissions from passive sources were in the range of 10 3-10 4 cfu m -3, with releases from active sources typically 1-log higher. We propose improvements to current risk assessment methodologies by examining emission rates and the differences between two air dispersion models for the prediction of downwind bioaerosol concentrations at off-site points of exposure. The SCREEN3 model provides a more precautionary estimate of the source depletion curves of bioaerosol emissions in comparison to ADMS 3.3. The results from both models predict that bioaerosol concentrations decrease to below typical background concentrations before 250 m, the distance at which the regulator in England and Wales may require a risk assessment to be completed.

Development of database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors for China.

PubMed

Shen, Xianbao; Yao, Zhiliang; Zhang, Qiang; Wagner, David Vance; Huo, Hong; Zhang, Yingzhi; Zheng, Bo; He, Kebin

2015-05-01

A database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors, based on type and technology, has been developed following tests on more than 300 diesel vehicles in China using a portable emission measurement system. The database provides better understanding of diesel vehicle emissions under actual driving conditions. We found that although new regulations have reduced real-world emission levels of diesel trucks and buses significantly for most pollutants in China, NOx emissions have been inadequately controlled by the current standards, especially for diesel buses, because of bad driving conditions in the real world. We also compared the emission factors in the database with those calculated by emission factor models and used in inventory studies. The emission factors derived from COPERT (Computer Programmer to calculate Emissions from Road Transport) and MOBILE may both underestimate real emission factors, whereas the updated COPERT and PART5 (Highway Vehicle Particulate Emission Modeling Software) models may overestimate emission factors in China. Real-world measurement results and emission factors used in recent emission inventory studies are inconsistent, which has led to inaccurate estimates of emissions from diesel trucks and buses over recent years. This suggests that emission factors derived from European or US-based models will not truly represent real-world emissions in China. Therefore, it is useful and necessary to conduct systematic real-world measurements of vehicle emissions in China in order to obtain the optimum inputs for emission inventory models. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of NOx Emissions and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, B. H.; Simon, H. A.; Timin, B.; Dolwick, P. D.; Owen, R. C.; Eyth, A.; Foley, K.; Toro, C.; Baker, K. R.

2017-12-01

Studies focusing on ambient measurements of NOy have concluded that NOx emissions are overestimated and some have attributed the error to the onroad mobile sector. We investigate this conclusion to identify the cause of observed bias. First, we compare DISCOVER-AQ Baltimore ambient measurements to fine-scale modeling with NOy tagged by sector. Sector-based relationships with bias are present, but these are sensitive to simulated vertical mixing. This is evident both in sensitivity to mixing parameterization and the seasonal patterns of bias. We also evaluate observation-based indicators, like CO:NOy ratios, that are commonly used to diagnose emissions inventories. Second, we examine the sensitivity of predicted NOx and NOy to temporal allocation of emissions. We investigate alternative temporal allocations for EGUs without CEMS, on-road mobile, and several non-road categories. These results show some location-specific sensitivity and will lead to some improved temporal allocations. Third, near-road studies have inherently fewer confounding variables, and have been examined for more direct evaluation of emissions and dispersion models. From 2008-2011, the EPA and FHWA conducted near-road studies in Las Vegas and Detroit. These measurements are used to more directly evaluate the emissions and dispersion using site-specific traffic data. In addition, the site-specific emissions are being compared to the emissions used in larger-scale photochemical modeling to identify key discrepancies. These efforts are part of a larger coordinated effort by EPA scientist to ensure the highest quality in emissions and model processes. We look forward to sharing the state of these analyses and expected updates.

Comparing mass balance and adjoint methods for inverse modeling of nitrogen dioxide columns for global nitrogen oxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Matthew; Martin, Randall V.; Padmanabhan, Akhila; Henze, Daven K.

2017-04-01

Satellite observations offer information applicable to top-down constraints on emission inventories through inverse modeling. Here we compare two methods of inverse modeling for emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint. We treat the adjoint-based 4D-Var modeling approach for estimating top-down emissions as a benchmark against which to evaluate variations on the mass balance method. We use synthetic NO2 columns generated from known NOx emissions to serve as "truth." We find that error in mass balance inversions can be reduced by up to a factor of 2 with an iterative process that uses finite difference calculations of the local sensitivity of NO2 columns to a change in emissions. In a simplified experiment to recover local emission perturbations, horizontal smearing effects due to NOx transport are better resolved by the adjoint approach than by mass balance. For more complex emission changes, or at finer resolution, the iterative finite difference mass balance and adjoint methods produce similar global top-down inventories when inverting hourly synthetic observations, both reducing the a priori error by factors of 3-4. Inversions of simulated satellite observations from low Earth and geostationary orbits also indicate that both the mass balance and adjoint inversions produce similar results, reducing a priori error by a factor of 3. As the iterative finite difference mass balance method provides similar accuracy as the adjoint method, it offers the prospect of accurately estimating top-down NOx emissions using models that do not have an adjoint.

Emission of intermediate, semi and low volatile organic compounds from traffic and their impact on secondary organic aerosol concentrations over Greater Paris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sartelet, K.; Zhu, S.; Moukhtar, S.; André, M.; André, J. M.; Gros, V.; Favez, O.; Brasseur, A.; Redaelli, M.

2018-05-01

Exhaust particle emissions are mostly made of black carbon and/or organic compounds, with some of these organic compounds existing in both the gas and particle phases. Although emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) are usually measured at the exhaust, emissions in the gas phase of lower volatility compounds (POAvapor) are not. However, these gas-phase emissions may be oxidised after emission and enhance the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA). They are shown here to contribute to most of the SOA formation in Central Paris. POAvapor emissions are usually estimated from primary organic aerosol emissions in the particle phase (POA). However, they could also be estimated from VOC emissions for both gasoline and diesel vehicles using previously published measurements from chamber measurements. Estimating POAvapor from VOC emissions and ageing exhaust emissions with a simple model included in the Polyphemus air-quality platform compare well to measurements of SOA formation performed in chamber experiments. Over Greater Paris, POAvapor emissions estimated using POA and VOC emissions are compared using the HEAVEN bottom-up traffic emissions model. The impact on the simulated atmospheric concentrations is then assessed using the Polyphemus/Polair3D chemistry-transport model. Estimating POAvapor emissions from VOC emissions rather than POA emissions lead to lower emissions along motorway axes (between -50% and -70%) and larger emissions in urban areas (up to between +120% and +140% in Central Paris). The impact on total organic aerosol concentrations (gas plus particle) is lower than the impact on emissions: between -8% and 25% along motorway axes and in urban areas respectively. Particle-phase organic concentrations are lower when POAvapor emissions are estimated from VOC than POA emissions, even in Central Paris where the total organic aerosol concentration is higher, because of different assumptions on the emission volatility distribution, stressing the importance of characterizing not only the emission strength, but also the emission volatility distribution.

Cost of lower NO x emissions: Increased CO 2 emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, Mohan; Carder, Daniel K.; Thompson, Gregory; Gautam, Mridul

This paper highlights the effect of emissions regulations on in-use emissions from heavy-duty vehicles powered by different model year engines. More importantly, fuel economy data for pre- and post-consent decree engines are compared. The objective of this study was to determine the changes in brake-specific emissions of NO x as a result of emission regulations, and to highlight the effect these have had on brake-specific CO 2 emission; hence, fuel consumption. For this study, in-use, on-road emission measurements were collected. Test vehicles were instrumented with a portable on-board tailpipe emissions measurement system, WVU's Mobile Emissions Measurement System, and were tested on specific routes, which included a mix of highway and city driving patterns, in order to collect engine operating conditions, vehicle speed, and in-use emission rates of CO 2 and NO x. Comparison of on-road in-use emissions data suggests NO x reductions as high as 80% and 45% compared to the US Federal Test Procedure and Not-to-Exceed standards for model year 1995-2002. However, the results indicate that the fuel consumption; hence, CO 2 emissions increased by approximately 10% over the same period, when the engines were operating in the Not-to-Exceed region.

Evaluation of biogenic emission flux and its impact on oxidants and inorganic aerosols in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, K. M.; Song, C. H.; Park, R. S.; Woo, J.; Kim, H.

2010-12-01

As a major precursor during the summer season, biogenic species are of primary importance in the ozone and SOAs (secondary organic aerosols) formations. Isoprene and mono-terpene also influence the level of inorganic aerosols (i.e. sulfate and nitrate) by controlling OH radicals. However, biogenic emission fluxes are highly uncertain in East Asia. While isoprene emission fluxes from the GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity) and POET (Precursors of Ozone and their Effects in the Troposphere) inventories estimate approximately 20 Tg yr-1 in East Asia, those from the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) and MOHYCAN (MOdel for Hydrocarbon emissions by the CANopy) estimate approximately 10 Tg yr-1 and 5 Tg yr-1, respectively. In order to evaluate and/or quantify the magnitude of biogenic emission fluxes over East Asia, the tropospheric HCHO columns obtained from the GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment) observations were compared with the HCHO columns from the CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality) simulations over East Asia. In this study, US EPA Models-3/CMAQ v4.5.1 model simulation using the ACE-ASIA (Asia Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment) emission inventory for anthropogenic pollutants and GEIA, POET, MEGAN, and MOHYCAN emission inventories for biogenic species was carried out in conjunction with the Meteorological fields generated from the PSU/NCAR MM5 (Pennsylvania state University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Meso-scale Model 5) model for the summer episodes of the year 2002. In addition to an evaluation of the biogenic emission flux, we investigated the impact of the uncertainty in biogenic emission inventory on inorganic aerosol formations and variations of oxidants (OH, O3, and H2O2) in East Asia. In this study, when the GEIA and POET emission inventories are used, the CMAQ-derived HCHO columns are highly overestimated over East Asia, particularly South China compared with GOME-derived HCHO columns. The CMAQ-derived HCHO columns using the MOHYCAN emission inventory have similar values with the GOME-derived HCHO columns over East Asia. Also, differences in biogenic emission fluxes lead to changes in the levels of nitrates by changing the OH radical concentrations.

A global wetland methane emissions and uncertainty dataset for atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. Anthony; Bowman, Kevin W.; Lee, Meemong; Turner, Alexander J.; Schroeder, Ronny; Worden, John R.; Weidner, Richard; McDonald, Kyle C.; Jacob, Daniel J.

2017-06-01

Wetland emissions remain one of the principal sources of uncertainty in the global atmospheric methane (CH4) budget, largely due to poorly constrained process controls on CH4 production in waterlogged soils. Process-based estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions and their associated uncertainties can provide crucial prior information for model-based top-down CH4 emission estimates. Here we construct a global wetland CH4 emission model ensemble for use in atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0). Our 0.5° × 0.5° resolution model ensemble is based on satellite-derived surface water extent and precipitation reanalyses, nine heterotrophic respiration simulations (eight carbon cycle models and a data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis) and three temperature dependence parameterizations for the period 2009-2010; an extended ensemble subset based solely on precipitation and the data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis is derived for the period 2001-2015. We incorporate the mean of the full and extended model ensembles into GEOS-Chem and compare the model against surface measurements of atmospheric CH4; the model performance (site-level and zonal mean anomaly residuals) compares favourably against published wetland CH4 emissions scenarios. We find that uncertainties in carbon decomposition rates and the wetland extent together account for more than 80 % of the dominant uncertainty in the timing, magnitude and seasonal variability in wetland CH4 emissions, although uncertainty in the temperature CH4 : C dependence is a significant contributor to seasonal variations in mid-latitude wetland CH4 emissions. The combination of satellite, carbon cycle models and temperature dependence parameterizations provides a physically informed structural a priori uncertainty that is critical for top-down estimates of wetland CH4 fluxes. Specifically, our ensemble can provide enhanced information on the prior CH4 emission uncertainty and the error covariance structure, as well as a means for using posterior flux estimates and their uncertainties to quantitatively constrain the biogeochemical process controls of global wetland CH4 emissions.

Variability in Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicle Emission Factors from Trip-Based Real-World Measurements.

PubMed

Liu, Bin; Frey, H Christopher

2015-10-20

Using data obtained with portable emissions measurements systems (PEMS) on multiple routes for 100 gasoline vehicles, including passenger cars (PCs), passenger trucks (PTs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), variability in tailpipe emission rates was evaluated. Tier 2 emission standards are shown to be effective in lowering NOx, CO, and HC emission rates. Although PTs are larger, heavier vehicles that consume more fuel and produce more CO2 emissions, they do not necessarily produce more emissions of regulated pollutants compared to PCs. HEVs have very low emission rates compared to tier 2 vehicles under real-world driving. Emission factors vary with cycle average speed and road type, reflecting the combined impact of traffic control and traffic congestion. Compared to the slowest average speed and most congested cycles, optimal emission rates could be 50% lower for CO2, as much as 70% lower for NOx, 40% lower for CO, and 50% lower for HC. There is very high correlation among vehicles when comparing driving cycles. This has implications for how many cycles are needed to conduct comparisons between vehicles, such as when comparing fuels or technologies. Concordance between empirical and predicted emission rates using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES model was also assessed.

Constraining CO emission estimates using atmospheric observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooghiemstra, P. B.

2012-06-01

We apply a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system to optimize carbon monoxide (CO) emissions and to reduce the uncertainty of emission estimates from individual sources using the chemistry transport model TM5. In the first study only a limited amount of surface network observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) Global Monitoring Division (GMD) is used to test the 4D-Var system. Uncertainty reduction up to 60% in yearly emissions is observed over well-constrained regions and the inferred emissions compare well with recent studies for 2004. However, since the observations only constrain total CO emissions, the 4D-Var system has difficulties separating anthropogenic and biogenic sources in particular. The inferred emissions are validated with NOAA aircraft data over North America and the agreement is significantly improved from the prior to posterior simulation. Validation with the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument shows a slight improved agreement over the well-constrained Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics (except for the African continent). However, the model simulation with posterior emissions underestimates MOPITT CO total columns on the remote Southern Hemisphere (SH) by about 10%. This is caused by a reduction in SH CO sources mainly due to surface stations on the high southern latitudes. In the second study, we compare two global inversions to estimate carbon monoxide (CO) emissions for 2004. Either surface flask observations from NOAA or CO total columns from the MOPITT instrument are assimilated in a 4D-Var framework. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) three important findings are reported. First, due to their different vertical sensitivity, the stations-only inversion increases SH biomass burning emissions by 108 Tg CO/yr more than the MOPITT-only inversion. Conversely, the MOPITT-only inversion results in SH natural emissions (mainly CO from oxidation of NMVOCs) that are 185 Tg CO/yr higher compared to the stations-only inversion. Second, MOPITT-only derived biomass burning emissions are reduced with respect to the prior which is in contrast to previous (inverse) modeling studies. Finally, MOPITT derived total emissions are significantly higher for South America and Africa compared to the stations-only inversion. This is likely due to a positive bias in the MOPITT V4 product. This bias is also apparent from validation with surface stations and ground-truth FTIR columns. In the final study we present the first inverse modeling study to estimate CO emissions constrained by both surface (NOAA) and satellite (MOPITT) observations using a bias correction scheme. This approach leads to the identification of a positive bias of maximum 5 ppb in MOPITT column-averaged CO mixing ratios in the remote Southern Hemisphere (SH). The 4D-Var system is used to estimate CO emissions over South America in the period 2006-2010 and to analyze the interannual variability (IAV) of these emissions. We infer robust, high spatial resolution CO emission estimates that show slightly smaller IAV due to fires compared to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) prior emissions. Moreover, CO emissions probably associated with pre-harvest burning of sugar cane plantations are underestimated in current inventories by 50-100%.

Woodstove Emission Sampling Methods Comparability Analysis and In-situ Evaluation of New Technology Woodstoves.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simons, Carl A.

1988-06-01

One major objective of this study was to compare several woodstove particulate emission sampling methods under laboratory and in-situ conditions. The laboratory work compared the EPA Method 5H, EPA Method 5G, and OMNI Automated Woodstove Emission Sampler (AWES)/Data LOG'r particulate emission sampling systems. A second major objective of the study was to evaluate the performance of two integral catalytic, two low emission non-catalytic, and two conventional technology woodstoves under in-situ conditions with AWES/Data LOG'r system. The AWES/Data LOG'r and EPA Method 5G sampling systems were also compared in an in-situ test on one of the integral catalytic woodstove models. 7more » figs., 12 tabs.« less

Modeling nitrous oxide emission from rivers: a global assessment.

PubMed

Hu, Minpeng; Chen, Dingjiang; Dahlgren, Randy A

2016-11-01

Estimates of global riverine nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions contain great uncertainty. We conducted a meta-analysis incorporating 169 observations from published literature to estimate global riverine N 2 O emission rates and emission factors. Riverine N 2 O flux was significantly correlated with NH 4 , NO 3 and DIN (NH 4  + NO 3 ) concentrations, loads and yields. The emission factors EF(a) (i.e., the ratio of N 2 O emission rate and DIN load) and EF(b) (i.e., the ratio of N 2 O and DIN concentrations) values were comparable and showed negative correlations with nitrogen concentration, load and yield and water discharge, but positive correlations with the dissolved organic carbon : DIN ratio. After individually evaluating 82 potential regression models based on EF(a) or EF(b) for global, temperate zone and subtropical zone datasets, a power function of DIN yield multiplied by watershed area was determined to provide the best fit between modeled and observed riverine N 2 O emission rates (EF(a): R 2  = 0.92 for both global and climatic zone models, n = 70; EF(b): R 2  = 0.91 for global model and R 2  = 0.90 for climatic zone models, n = 70). Using recent estimates of DIN loads for 6400 rivers, models estimated global riverine N 2 O emission rates of 29.6-35.3 (mean = 32.2) Gg N 2 O-N yr -1 and emission factors of 0.16-0.19% (mean = 0.17%). Global riverine N 2 O emission rates are forecasted to increase by 35%, 25%, 18% and 3% in 2050 compared to the 2000s under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, Technogarden, and Adapting Mosaic scenarios, respectively. Previous studies may overestimate global riverine N 2 O emission rates (300-2100 Gg N 2 O-N yr -1 ) because they ignore declining emission factor values with increasing nitrogen levels and channel size, as well as neglect differences in emission factors corresponding to different nitrogen forms. Riverine N 2 O emission estimates will be further enhanced through refining emission factor estimates, extending measurements longitudinally along entire river networks and improving estimates of global riverine nitrogen loads. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Paper and Slides on Draft Nonroad Emission Inventory Model: Presented at 12th International Emission Inventory Conference, April 2003

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Description of the most current draft of the NONROAD model and how it version differs from prior versions. Nationwide model outputs are presented and compared for HC, CO, NOx, PM, SOx (SO2), and fuel consumption, for diesel and for sparkignition engines.

Comparison of AERMOD and WindTrax dispersion models in determining PM10 emission rates from beef cattle feedlots

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reverse dispersion modeling has been used to determine air emission fluxes from ground-level area sources, including open-lot beef cattle feedlots. This research compared AERMOD, a Gaussian-based and currently the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) preferred regulatory dispersion model, and ...

Comparison of the predictions of two road dust emission models with the measurements of a mobile van

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauhaniemi, M.; Stojiljkovic, A.; Pirjola, L.; Karppinen, A.; Härkönen, J.; Kupiainen, K.; Kangas, L.; Aarnio, M. A.; Omstedt, G.; Denby, B. R.; Kukkonen, J.

2014-09-01

The predictions of two road dust suspension emission models were compared with the on-site mobile measurements of suspension emission factors. Such a quantitative comparison has not previously been reported in the reviewed literature. The models used were the Nordic collaboration model NORTRIP (NOn-exhaust Road TRaffic Induced Particle emissions) and the Swedish-Finnish FORE model (Forecasting Of Road dust Emissions). These models describe particulate matter generated by the wear of road surface due to traction control methods and processes that control the suspension of road dust particles into the air. An experimental measurement campaign was conducted using a mobile laboratory called SNIFFER, along two selected road segments in central Helsinki in 2007 and 2008. The suspended PM10 concentration was measured behind the left rear tyre and the street background PM10 concentration in front of the van. Both models reproduced the measured seasonal variation of suspension emission factors fairly well during both years at both measurement sites. However, both models substantially under-predicted the measured emission values. The article illustrates the challenges in conducting road suspension measurements in densely trafficked urban conditions, and the numerous requirements for input data that are needed for accurately applying road suspension emission models.

Calibration to improve forward model simulation of microwave emissivity at GPM frequencies over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

PubMed Central

Harrison, Kenneth W.; Tian, Yudong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ringerud, Sarah; Kumar, Sujay V.

2018-01-01

Better estimation of land surface microwave emissivity promises to improve over-land precipitation retrievals in the GPM era. Forward models of land microwave emissivity are available but have suffered from poor parameter specification and limited testing. Here, forward models are calibrated and the accompanying change in predictive power is evaluated. With inputs (e.g., soil moisture) from the Noah land surface model and applying MODIS LAI data, two microwave emissivity models are tested, the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM). The calibration is conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) parameter estimation subsystem using AMSR-E based emissivity retrievals for the calibration dataset. The extent of agreement between the modeled and retrieved estimates is evaluated using the AMSR-E retrievals for a separate 7-year validation period. Results indicate that calibration can significantly improve the agreement, simulating emissivity with an across-channel average root-mean-square-difference (RMSD) of about 0.013, or about 20% lower than if relying on daily estimates based on climatology. The results also indicate that calibration of the microwave emissivity model alone, as was done in prior studies, results in as much as 12% higher across-channel average RMSD, as compared to joint calibration of the land surface and microwave emissivity models. It remains as future work to assess the extent to which the improvements in emissivity estimation translate into improvements in precipitation retrieval accuracy. PMID:29795962

Modeling natural emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model-I: building an emissions data base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S. N.; Mueller, S. F.

2010-05-01

A natural emissions inventory for the continental United States and surrounding territories is needed in order to use the US Environmental Protection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model for simulating natural air quality. The CMAQ air modeling system (including the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) emissions processing system) currently estimates non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions from biogenic sources, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from soils, ammonia from animals, several types of particulate and reactive gas emissions from fires, as well as sea salt emissions. However, there are several emission categories that are not commonly treated by the standard CMAQ Model system. Most notable among these are nitrogen oxide emissions from lightning, reduced sulfur emissions from oceans, geothermal features and other continental sources, windblown dust particulate, and reactive chlorine gas emissions linked with sea salt chloride. A review of past emissions modeling work and existing global emissions data bases provides information and data necessary for preparing a more complete natural emissions data base for CMAQ applications. A model-ready natural emissions data base is developed to complement the anthropogenic emissions inventory used by the VISTAS Regional Planning Organization in its work analyzing regional haze based on the year 2002. This new data base covers a modeling domain that includes the continental United States plus large portions of Canada, Mexico and surrounding oceans. Comparing July 2002 source data reveals that natural emissions account for 16% of total gaseous sulfur (sulfur dioxide, dimethylsulfide and hydrogen sulfide), 44% of total NOx, 80% of reactive carbonaceous gases (NMVOCs and carbon monoxide), 28% of ammonia, 96% of total chlorine (hydrochloric acid, nitryl chloride and sea salt chloride), and 84% of fine particles (i.e., those smaller than 2.5 μm in size) released into the atmosphere. The seasonality and relative importance of the various natural emissions categories are described.

Modeling natural emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model - Part 1: Building an emissions data base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S. N.; Mueller, S. F.

2010-01-01

A natural emissions inventory for the continental United States and surrounding territories is needed in order to use the US Environmental Protection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model for simulating natural air quality. The CMAQ air modeling system (including the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) emissions processing system) currently estimates volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from biogenic sources, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from soils, ammonia from animals, several types of particulate and reactive gas emissions from fires, as well as windblown dust and sea salt emissions. However, there are several emission categories that are not commonly treated by the standard CMAQ Model system. Most notable among these are nitrogen oxide emissions from lightning, reduced sulfur emissions from oceans, geothermal features and other continental sources, and reactive chlorine gas emissions linked with sea salt chloride. A review of past emissions modeling work and existing global emissions data bases provides information and data necessary for preparing a more complete natural emissions data base for CMAQ applications. A model-ready natural emissions data base is developed to complement the anthropogenic emissions inventory used by the VISTAS Regional Planning Organization in its work analyzing regional haze based on the year 2002. This new data base covers a modeling domain that includes the continental United States plus large portions of Canada, Mexico and surrounding oceans. Comparing July 2002 source data reveals that natural emissions account for 16% of total gaseous sulfur (sulfur dioxide, dimethylsulfide and hydrogen sulfide), 44% of total NOx, 80% of reactive carbonaceous gases (VOCs and carbon monoxide), 28% of ammonia, 96% of total chlorine (hydrochloric acid, nitryl chloride and sea salt chloride), and 84% of fine particles (i.e., those smaller than 2.5 μm in size) released into the atmosphere. The seasonality and relative importance of the various natural emissions categories are described.

Linear regression analysis of emissions factors when firing fossil fuels and biofuels in a commercial water-tube boiler

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharon Falcone Miller; Bruce G. Miller

2007-12-15

This paper compares the emissions factors for a suite of liquid biofuels (three animal fats, waste restaurant grease, pressed soybean oil, and a biodiesel produced from soybean oil) and four fossil fuels (i.e., natural gas, No. 2 fuel oil, No. 6 fuel oil, and pulverized coal) in Penn State's commercial water-tube boiler to assess their viability as fuels for green heat applications. The data were broken into two subsets, i.e., fossil fuels and biofuels. The regression model for the liquid biofuels (as a subset) did not perform well for all of the gases. In addition, the coefficient in the modelsmore » showed the EPA method underestimating CO and NOx emissions. No relation could be studied for SO{sub 2} for the liquid biofuels as they contain no sulfur; however, the model showed a good relationship between the two methods for SO{sub 2} in the fossil fuels. AP-42 emissions factors for the fossil fuels were also compared to the mass balance emissions factors and EPA CFR Title 40 emissions factors. Overall, the AP-42 emissions factors for the fossil fuels did not compare well with the mass balance emissions factors or the EPA CFR Title 40 emissions factors. Regression analysis of the AP-42, EPA, and mass balance emissions factors for the fossil fuels showed a significant relationship only for CO{sub 2} and SO{sub 2}. However, the regression models underestimate the SO{sub 2} emissions by 33%. These tests illustrate the importance in performing material balances around boilers to obtain the most accurate emissions levels, especially when dealing with biofuels. The EPA emissions factors were very good at predicting the mass balance emissions factors for the fossil fuels and to a lesser degree the biofuels. While the AP-42 emissions factors and EPA CFR Title 40 emissions factors are easier to perform, especially in large, full-scale systems, this study illustrated the shortcomings of estimation techniques. 23 refs., 3 figs., 8 tabs.« less

Greenhouse gas emissions from dairy manure management: a review of field-based studies.

PubMed

Owen, Justine J; Silver, Whendee L

2015-02-01

Livestock manure management accounts for almost 10% of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture globally, and contributes an equal proportion to the US methane emission inventory. Current emissions inventories use emissions factors determined from small-scale laboratory experiments that have not been compared to field-scale measurements. We compiled published data on field-scale measurements of greenhouse gas emissions from working and research dairies and compared these to rates predicted by the IPCC Tier 2 modeling approach. Anaerobic lagoons were the largest source of methane (368 ± 193 kg CH4 hd(-1) yr(-1)), more than three times that from enteric fermentation (~120 kg CH4 hd(-1) yr(-1)). Corrals and solid manure piles were large sources of nitrous oxide (1.5 ± 0.8 and 1.1 ± 0.7 kg N2O hd(-1) yr(-1), respectively). Nitrous oxide emissions from anaerobic lagoons (0.9 ± 0.5 kg N2O hd(-1) yr(-1)) and barns (10 ± 6 kg N2O hd(-1) yr(-1)) were unexpectedly large. Modeled methane emissions underestimated field measurement means for most manure management practices. Modeled nitrous oxide emissions underestimated field measurement means for anaerobic lagoons and manure piles, but overestimated emissions from slurry storage. Revised emissions factors nearly doubled slurry CH4 emissions for Europe and increased N2O emissions from solid piles and lagoons in the United States by an order of magnitude. Our results suggest that current greenhouse gas emission factors generally underestimate emissions from dairy manure and highlight liquid manure systems as promising target areas for greenhouse gas mitigation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effective pollutant emission heights for atmospheric transport modelling based on real-world information.

PubMed

Pregger, Thomas; Friedrich, Rainer

2009-02-01

Emission data needed as input for the operation of atmospheric models should not only be spatially and temporally resolved. Another important feature is the effective emission height which significantly influences modelled concentration values. Unfortunately this information, which is especially relevant for large point sources, is usually not available and simple assumptions are often used in atmospheric models. As a contribution to improve knowledge on emission heights this paper provides typical default values for the driving parameters stack height and flue gas temperature, velocity and flow rate for different industrial sources. The results were derived from an analysis of the probably most comprehensive database of real-world stack information existing in Europe based on German industrial data. A bottom-up calculation of effective emission heights applying equations used for Gaussian dispersion models shows significant differences depending on source and air pollutant and compared to approaches currently used for atmospheric transport modelling.

Development and application of a mechanistic model to estimate emission of nitrous oxide from UK agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, L.; Syed, B.; Jarvis, S. C.; Sneath, R. W.; Phillips, V. R.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Li, C.

A mechanistic model of N 2O emission from agricultural soil (DeNitrification-DeComposition—DNDC) was modified for application to the UK, and was used as the basis of an inventory of N 2O emission from UK agriculture in 1990. UK-specific input data were added to DNDC's database and the ability to simulate daily C and N inputs from grazing animals and applied animal waste was added to the model. The UK version of the model, UK-DNDC, simulated emissions from 18 different crop types on the 3 areally dominant soils in each county. Validation of the model at the field scale showed that predictions matched observations well. Emission factors for the inventory were calculated from estimates of N 2O emission from UK-DNDC, in order to maintain direct comparability with the IPCC approach. These, along with activity data, were included in a transparent spreadsheet format. Using UK-DNDC, the estimate of N 2O-N emission from UK current agricultural practice in 1990 was 50.9 Gg. This total comprised 31.7 Gg from the soil sector, 5.9 Gg from animals and 13.2 Gg from the indirect sector. The range of this estimate (using the range of soil organic C for each soil used) was 30.5-62.5 Gg N. Estimates of emissions in each sector were compared to those calculated using the IPCC default methodology. Emissions from the soil and indirect sectors were smaller with the UK-DNDC approach than with the IPCC methodology, while emissions from the animal sector were larger. The model runs suggested a relatively large emission from agricultural land that was not attributable to current agricultural practices (33.8 Gg in total, 27.4 Gg from the soil sector). This 'background' component is partly the result of historical agricultural land use. It is not normally included in inventories of emission, but would increase the total emission of N 2O-N from agricultural land in 1990 to 78.3 Gg.

Highly-resolved Modeling of Emissions and Concentrations of Carbon Monoxide, Carbon Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Fine Particulate Matter in Salt Lake City, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, D. L.; Lin, J. C.; Mitchell, L.; Ehleringer, J. R.

2014-12-01

Accurate, high-resolution data on air pollutant emissions and concentrations are needed to understand human exposures and for both policy and pollutant management purposes. An important step in this process is also quantification of uncertainties. We present a spatially explicit and highly resolved emissions inventory for Salt Lake County, Utah, and trace gas concentration estimates for carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particles (PM2.5) within Salt Lake City. We assess the validity of this approach by comparing measured concentrations against simulated values derived from combining the emissions inventory with an atmospheric model. The emissions inventory for the criteria pollutants was constructed using the 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The spatial and temporal allocation methods from the Emission Modeling Clearinghouse data set are used to downscale the NEI data from annual to hourly scales and from county-level to 500 m x 500 m resolution. Onroad mobile source emissions were estimated by combining a bottom-up emissions calculation approach for large roadway links with a top-down spatial allocation approach for other roadways. Vehicle activity data for road links were derived from automatic traffic responder data. The emissions inventory for CO2 was obtained from the Hestia emissions data product at an hourly, building, facility, and road link resolution. The AERMOD and CALPUFF dispersion models were used to transport emissions and estimate air pollutant concentrations at an hourly temporal and 500 m x 500 m spatial resolution. Modeled results were compared against measurements from a mobile lab equipped with trace gas measurement equipment traveling on pre-determined routes in the Salt Lake City area. The comparison between both approaches to concentration estimation highlights spatial locations and hours of high variability/uncertainty. Results presented here will inform understanding of variability and uncertainty in emissions and concentrations to better inform future policy. This work will also facilitate the development of a systematic approach to incorporate measurement data and models to better inform estimates of pollutant concentrations that determine the extent to which urban populations are exposed to adverse air quality.

South American smoke coverage and flux estimations from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE') system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Christopher, S. A.; Prins, E. M.; Gasso, S.; Reid, E.; Theisen, M.; Schmidt, C. C.; Hunter, J.; Eck, T.

2002-05-01

The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE') project is a joint Navy, NOAA, NASA and university project to integrate satellite products with numerical aerosol models to produce a real time fire and emissions inventory. At the center of the program is the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF ABBA) which provides real-time fire products and the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System to model smoke transport. In this presentation we give a brief overview of the system and methods, but emphasize new estimations of smoke coverage and emission fluxes from the South American continent. Temporal and smoke patterns compare reasonably well with AERONET and MODIS aerosol optical depth products for the 2000 and 2001 fire seasons. Fluxes are computed by relating NAAPS output fields and MODIS optical depth maps with modeled wind fields. Smoke emissions and transport fluxes out of the continent can then be estimated by perturbing the modeled emissions to gain agreement with the satellite and wind products. Regional smoke emissions are also presented for grass and forest burning.

Spatial distribution of diesel transit bus emissions and urban populations: implications of coincidence and scale on exposure.

PubMed

Gouge, Brian; Ries, Francis J; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2010-09-15

Macroscale emissions modeling approaches have been widely applied in impact assessments of mobile source emissions. However, these approaches poorly characterize the spatial distribution of emissions and have been shown to underestimate emissions of some pollutants. To quantify the implications of these limitations on exposure assessments, CO, NO(X), and HC emissions from diesel transit buses were estimated at 50 m intervals along a bus rapid transit route using a microscale emissions modeling approach. The impacted population around the route was estimated using census, pedestrian count and transit ridership data. Emissions exhibited significant spatial variability. In intervals near major intersections and bus stops, emissions were 1.6-3.0 times higher than average. The coincidence of these emission hot spots and peaks in pedestrian populations resulted in a 20-40% increase in exposure compared to estimates that assumed homogeneous spatial distributions of emissions and/or populations along the route. An additional 19-30% increase in exposure resulted from the underestimate of CO and NO(X) emissions by macroscale modeling approaches. The results of this study indicate that macroscale modeling approaches underestimate exposure due to poor characterization of the influence of vehicle activity on the spatial distribution of emissions and total emissions.

Evaluating environmental modeling and sampling data with biomarker data to identify sources and routes of exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Hyeong-Moo; McKone, Thomas E.; Bennett, Deborah H.

2013-04-01

Exposure to environmental chemicals results from multiple sources, environmental media, and exposure routes. Ideally, modeled exposures should be compared to biomonitoring data. This study compares the magnitude and variation of modeled polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposures resulting from emissions to outdoor and indoor air and estimated exposure inferred from biomarker levels. Outdoor emissions result in both inhalation and food-based exposures. We modeled PAH intake doses using U.S. EPA's 2002 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) county-level emissions data for outdoor inhalation, the CalTOX model for food ingestion (based on NATA emissions), and indoor air concentrations from field studies for indoor inhalation. We then compared the modeled intake with the measured urine levels of hydroxy-PAH metabolites from the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) survey as quantifiable human intake of PAH parent-compounds. Lognormal probability plots of modeled intakes and estimated intakes inferred from biomarkers suggest that a primary route of exposure to naphthalene, fluorene, and phenanthrene for the U.S. population is likely inhalation from indoor sources. For benzo(a)pyrene, the predominant exposure route is likely from food ingestion resulting from multi-pathway transport and bioaccumulation due to outdoor emissions. Multiple routes of exposure are important for pyrene. We also considered the sensitivity of the predicted exposure to the proportion of the total naphthalene production volume emitted to the indoor environment. The comparison of PAH biomarkers with exposure variability estimated from models and sample data for various exposure pathways supports that both indoor and outdoor models are needed to capture the sources and routes of exposure to environmental contaminants.

Atmospheric dispersion of radon around uranium mill tailings of the former Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant in Ukraine.

PubMed

Kovalets, Ivan V; Asker, Christian; Khalchenkov, Alexander V; Persson, Christer; Lavrova, Tatyana V

2017-06-01

Simulations of atmospheric dispersion of radon around the uranium mill tailings of the former Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant (PChP) in Ukraine were carried out with the aid of two atmospheric dispersion models: the Airviro Grid Model and the CALMET/CALPUFF model chain. The available measurement data of radon emission rates taken in the territories and the close vicinity of tailings were used in simulations. The results of simulations were compared to the yearly averaged measurements of concentration data. Both models were able to reasonably reproduce average radon concentration at the Sukhachivske site using averaged measured emission rates as input together with the measured meteorological data. At the same time, both models significantly underestimated concentrations as compared to measurements collected at the PChP industrial site. According to the results of both dispersion models, it was shown that only addition of significant radon emission rate from the whole territory of PChP in addition to emission rates from the tailings could explain the observed concentration measurements. With the aid of the uncertainty analysis, the radon emission rate from the whole territory of PChP was estimated to be between 1.5 and 3.5 Bq·m -2 s -1 . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parking, energy consumption and air pollution.

PubMed

Höglund, Paul G

2004-12-01

This paper examines the impacts of different ways of parking on environmental effects, mainly vehicle emissions and air pollution. Vehicle energy consumption and the urban air quality at street level, related to location and design of parking establishments, need to be assessed and quantified. In addition, the indoor parking environment needs attention. This paper gives a description of a methodological approach when comparing different parking establishments. The paper also briefly describes a Swedish attempt to create methods and models for assessing and quantifying such problem. The models are the macrolevel model BRAHE, for regional traffic exhaust emission, and the micromodel SimPark, a parking search model attempt combined with emission models. Until now, very limited knowledge exists regarding the various aspects of vehicle parking and environmental effects in the technical field as well as in the social and human behaviour aspects. This requires an interdisciplinary approach to this challenging area for research, development and more directly practically implemented surveys and field studies. In order to illustrate the new evaluation methodology, the paper also contains some results from a pilot study in Stockholm. Given certain assumptions, a study of vehicle emissions from parking in an underground garage compared with kerbside parking has given an emission reduction of about 40% in favour of the parking garage. This study has been done using the models mentioned above.

Vehicular pollution modeling using the operational street pollution model (OSPM) for Chembur, Mumbai (India).

PubMed

Kumar, Awkash; Ketzel, Matthias; Patil, Rashmi S; Dikshit, Anil Kumar; Hertel, Ole

2016-06-01

Megacities in India such as Mumbai and Delhi are among the most polluted places in the world. In the present study, the widely used operational street pollution model (OSPM) is applied for assessing pollutant loads in the street canyons of Chembur, a suburban area just outside Mumbai city. Chembur is both industrialized and highly congested with vehicles. There are six major street canyons in this area, for which modeling has been carried out for NOx and particulate matter (PM). The vehicle emission factors for Indian cities have been developed by Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) for PM, not specifically for PM10 or PM2.5. The model has been applied for 4 days of winter season and for the whole year to see the difference of effect of meteorology. The urban background concentrations have been obtained from an air quality monitoring station. Results have been compared with measured concentrations from the routine monitoring performed in Mumbai. NOx emissions originate mainly from vehicles which are ground-level sources and are emitting close to where people live. Therefore, those emissions are highly relevant. The modeled NOx concentration compared satisfactorily with observed data. However, this was not the case for PM, most likely because the emission inventory did not contain emission terms due to resuspended particulate matter.

How do farm models compare when estimating greenhouse gas emissions from dairy cattle production?

PubMed

Hutchings, N J; Özkan Gülzari, Ş; de Haan, M; Sandars, D

2018-01-09

The European Union Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) will require a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 from the sectors not included in the European Emissions Trading Scheme, including agriculture. This will require the estimation of current and future emissions from agriculture, including dairy cattle production systems. Using a farm-scale model as part of a Tier 3 method for farm to national scales provides a more holistic and informative approach than IPCC (2006) Tier 2 but requires independent quality control. Comparing the results of using models to simulate a range of scenarios that explore an appropriate range of biophysical and management situations can support this process by providing a framework for placing model results in context. To assess the variation between models and the process of understanding differences, estimates of GHG emissions from four farm-scale models (DairyWise, FarmAC, HolosNor and SFARMMOD) were calculated for eight dairy farming scenarios within a factorial design consisting of two climates (cool/dry and warm/wet)×two soil types (sandy and clayey)×two feeding systems (grass only and grass/maize). The milk yield per cow, follower:cow ratio, manure management system, nitrogen (N) fertilisation and land area were standardised for all scenarios in order to associate the differences in the results with the model structure and function. Potential yield and application of available N in fertiliser and manure were specified separately for grass and maize. Significant differences between models were found in GHG emissions at the farm-scale and for most contributory sources, although there was no difference in the ranking of source magnitudes. The farm-scale GHG emissions, averaged over the four models, was 10.6 t carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e)/ha per year, with a range of 1.9 t CO2e/ha per year. Even though key production characteristics were specified in the scenarios, there were still significant differences between models in the annual milk production per ha and the amounts of N fertiliser and concentrate feed imported. This was because the models differed in their description of biophysical responses and feedback mechanisms, and in the extent to which management functions were internalised. We conclude that comparing the results of different farm-scale models when applied to a range of scenarios would build confidence in their use in achieving ESR targets, justifying further investment in the development of a wider range of scenarios and software tools.

LOW EMISSION AND HIGH EFFICIENCY RESIDENTIAL PELLET-FIRED HEATERS

EPA Science Inventory

The paper gives results of air emissions testing and efficiency testing on new commercially available under-feed and top-feed residential heaters burning hardwood- and softwood-based pellets. The results were compared with data from earlier models. Reductions in air emissions w...

Model estimation and measurement of ammonia emission from naturally ventilated dairy cattle buildings with slatted floor designs.

PubMed

Wang, Chaoyuan; Li, Baoming; Zhang, Guoqiang; Rom, Hans Benny; Strøom, Jan S

2006-09-01

Laboratory experiments were carried out in a wind tunnel with a model of a slurry pit to investigate the characteristics of ammonia emission from dairy cattle buildings with slatted floor designs. Ammonia emission at different temperatures and air velocities over the floor surface above the slurry pit was measured with uniform feces spreading and urine sprinkling on the surface daily. The data were used to improve a model for estimation of ammonia emission from dairy cattle buildings. Estimates from the updated emission model were compared with measured data from five naturally ventilated dairy cattle buildings. The overall measured ammonia emission rates were in the range of 11-88 g per cow per day at air temperatures of 2.3-22.4 degrees C. Ammonia emission rates estimated by the model were in the range of 19-107 g per cow per day for the surveyed buildings. The average ammonia emission estimated by the model was 11% higher than the mean measured value. The results show that predicted emission patterns generally agree with the measured one, but the prediction has less variation. The model performance may be improved if the influence of animal activity and management strategy on ammonia emission could be estimated and more reliable data of air velocities of the buildings could be obtained.

“Summary of the Emission Inventories compiled for the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We present a summary of the emission inventories from the US, Canada, and Mexico developed for the second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). Activities in this second phase are focused on the application and evaluation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models over both North America and Europe using common emissions and boundary conditions for all modeling groups for the years of 2006 and 2010. We will compare the emission inventories developed for these two years focusing on the SO2 and NOx reductions over these years and compare with socio-economic data. In addition we will highlight the differences in the inventories for the US and Canada compared with the inventories used in the phase 1 of this project. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollut

Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Tianyi; Liu, Xiaohong; Ma, Po-Lun; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Zhanqing; Jiang, Yiquan; Zhang, Fang; Zhao, Chuanfeng; Yang, Xin; Wu, Fang; Wang, Yuying

2018-02-01

Global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results are compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22-28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be -5.02, -18.47, and 13.45 W m-2, respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by -0.91, -3.48, and 2.57 W m-2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.

Emission Controls Versus Meteorological Conditions in Determining Aerosol Concentrations in Beijing during the 2008 Olympic Games

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yi; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhao, Chun

A series of emission control measures were undertaken in Beijing and the adjacent provinces in China during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games on August 8th-24th, 2008. This provides a unique opportunity for investigating the effectiveness of emission controls on air pollution in Beijing. We conducted a series of numerical experiments over East Asia for the period of July to September 2008 using a coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem). Model can generally reproduce the observed variation of aerosol concentrations. Consistent with observations, modeled concentrations of aerosol species (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, organic carbon, total particulate matter) in Beijing were decreased bymore » 30-50% during the Olympic period compared to the other periods in July and August in 2008 and the same period in 2007. Model results indicate that emission controls were effective in reducing the aerosol concentrations by comparing simulations with and without emission controls. However, our analysis suggests that meteorological conditions (e.g., wind direction and precipitation) are at least as important as emission controls in producing the low aerosol concentrations appearing during the Olympic period. Transport from the regions surrounding Beijing determines the temporal variation of aerosol concentrations in Beijing. Based on the budget analysis, we suggest that emission control strategy should focus on the regional scale instead of the local scale to improve the air quality over Beijing.« less

Simulation of the Intercontinental Transport, Aging, and Removal of a Boreal Fire Smoke Plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghan, S. J.; Chapman, E. G.; Easter, R. C.; Reid, J. S.; Justice, C.

2003-12-01

Back trajectories suggest that an elevated absorbing aerosol plume observed over Oklahoma in May 2003 can be traced to intense forest fires in Siberia two weeks earlier. The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) product is used to estimate smoke emissions from those fires. The Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Model Exchanges (MIRAGE) is used to simulate the transport, aging, radiative properties, and removal of the aerosol. The simulated aerosol optical depth is compared with satellite retrievals, and the vertical structure of the plume is compared with in situ measurements. Sensitivity experiments are performed to determine the sensitivity of the simulated plume to uncertainty in the emissions vertical profile, mass flux, size distribution, and composition.

Modelling carbonaceous aerosol from residential solid fuel burning with different assumptions for emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ots, Riinu; Heal, Mathew R.; Young, Dominique E.; Williams, Leah R.; Allan, James D.; Nemitz, Eiko; Di Marco, Chiara; Detournay, Anais; Xu, Lu; Ng, Nga L.; Coe, Hugh; Herndon, Scott C.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Green, David C.; Kuenen, Jeroen J. P.; Reis, Stefan; Vieno, Massimo

2018-04-01

Evidence is accumulating that emissions of primary particulate matter (PM) from residential wood and coal combustion in the UK may be underestimated and/or spatially misclassified. In this study, different assumptions for the spatial distribution and total emission of PM from solid fuel (wood and coal) burning in the UK were tested using an atmospheric chemical transport model. Modelled concentrations of the PM components were compared with measurements from aerosol mass spectrometers at four sites in central and Greater London (ClearfLo campaign, 2012), as well as with measurements from the UK black carbon network.The two main alternative emission scenarios modelled were Base4x and combRedist. For Base4x, officially reported PM2.5 from the residential and other non-industrial combustion source sector were increased by a factor of four. For the combRedist experiment, half of the baseline emissions from this same source were redistributed by residential population density to simulate the effect of allocating some emissions to the smoke control areas (that are assumed in the national inventory to have no emissions from this source). The Base4x scenario yielded better daily and hourly correlations with measurements than the combRedist scenario for year-long comparisons of the solid fuel organic aerosol (SFOA) component at the two London sites. However, the latter scenario better captured mean measured concentrations across all four sites. A third experiment, Redist - all emissions redistributed linearly to population density, is also presented as an indicator of the maximum concentrations an assumption like this could yield.The modelled elemental carbon (EC) concentrations derived from the combRedist experiments also compared well with seasonal average concentrations of black carbon observed across the network of UK sites. Together, the two model scenario simulations of SFOA and EC suggest both that residential solid fuel emissions may be higher than inventory estimates and that the spatial distribution of residential solid fuel burning emissions, particularly in smoke control areas, needs re-evaluation. The model results also suggest the assumed temporal profiles for residential emissions may require review to place greater emphasis on evening (including discretionary) solid fuel burning.

Influence of isoprene chemical mechanism on modelled changes in tropospheric ozone due to climate and land use over the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squire, O. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Griffiths, P. T.; Jenkin, M. E.; Pyle, J. A.

2014-09-01

Isoprene is a precursor to tropospheric ozone, a key pollutant and greenhouse gas. Anthropogenic activity over the coming century is likely to cause large changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, climate and land use, all of which will alter the global vegetation distribution leading to changes in isoprene emissions. Previous studies have used global chemistry-climate models to assess how possible changes in climate and land use could affect isoprene emissions and hence tropospheric ozone. The chemistry of isoprene oxidation, which can alter the concentration of ozone, is highly complex, therefore it must be parameterised in these models. In this work we compare the effect of four different reduced isoprene chemical mechanisms, all currently used in Earth-system models, on tropospheric ozone. Using a box model we compare ozone in these reduced schemes to that in a more explicit scheme (the MCM) over a range of NOx and isoprene emissions, through the use of O3 isopleths. We find that there is some variability, especially at high isoprene emissions, caused by differences in isoprene-derived NOx reservoir species. A global model is then used to examine how the different reduced schemes respond to potential future changes in climate, isoprene emissions, anthropogenic emissions and land use change. We find that, particularly in isoprene rich regions, the response of the schemes varies considerably. The wide ranging response is due to differences in the types of peroxy radicals produced by isoprene oxidation, and their relative rates of reaction towards NO, leading to ozone formation, or HO2, leading to termination. Also important is the yield of isoprene-nitrates and peroxyacyl nitrate precursors from isoprene oxidation. Those schemes that produce less of these NOx reservoir species, tend to produce more ozone locally and less away from the source region. Additionally, by combining the emissions and O3 data from all of the global model integrations, we are able to construct isopleth plots comparable to those from the box model analysis. We find that the global and box model isopleths show good qualitative agreement, suggesting that comparing chemical mechanisms with a box model in this framework is a useful tool for assessing mechanistic performance in complex global models. We conclude that as the choice of reduced isoprene mechanism may alter both the magnitude and sign of the ozone response, how isoprene chemistry is parameterised in perturbation experiments such as these is a crucially important consideration. More measurements are needed to validate these reduced mechanisms especially in high-VOC, low-NOx environments.

Observations of diurnal to weekly variations of monoterpene-dominated fluxes of volatile organic compounds from mediterranean forests: implications for regional modeling.

PubMed

Fares, Silvano; Schnitzhofer, Ralf; Jiang, Xiaoyan; Guenther, Alex; Hansel, Armin; Loreto, Francesco

2013-10-01

The Estate of Castelporziano (Rome, Italy) hosts many ecosystems representative of Mediterranean vegetation, especially holm oak and pine forests and dune vegetation. In this work, basal emission factors (BEFs) of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) obtained by Eddy Covariance in a field campaign using a proton transfer reaction-time-of-flight-mass spectrometer (PTR-TOF-MS) were compared to BEFs reported in previous studies that could not measure fluxes in real-time. Globally, broadleaf forests are dominated by isoprene emissions, but these Mediterranean ecosystems are dominated by strong monoterpene emitters, as shown by the new BEFs. The original and new BEFs were used to parametrize the model of emissions of gases and aerosols from nature (MEGAN v2.1), and model outputs were compared with measured fluxes. Results showed good agreement between modeled and measured fluxes when a model was used to predict radiative transfer and energy balance across the canopy. We then evaluated whether changes in BVOC emissions can affect the chemistry of the atmosphere and climate at a regional level. MEGAN was run together with the land surface model (community land model, CLM v4.0) of the community earth system model (CESM v1.0). Results highlighted that tropospheric ozone concentration and air temperature predicted from the model are sensitive to the magnitude of BVOC emissions, thus demonstrating the importance of adopting the proper BEF values for model parametrization.

Reported emissions of organic gases are not consistent with observations

PubMed Central

Henry, Ronald C.; Spiegelman, Clifford H.; Collins, John F.; Park, EunSug

1997-01-01

Regulatory agencies and photochemical models of ozone rely on self-reported industrial emission rates of organic gases. Incorrect self-reported emissions can severely impact on air quality models and regulatory decisions. We compared self-reported emissions of organic gases in Houston, Texas, to measurements at a receptor site near the Houston ship channel, a major petrochemical complex. We analyzed hourly observations of total nonmethane organic carbon and 54 hydrocarbon compounds from C-2 to C-9 for the period June through November, 1993. We were able to demonstrate severe inconsistencies between reported emissions and major sources as derived from the data using a multivariate receptor model. The composition and the location of the sources as deduced from the data are not consistent with the reported industrial emissions. On the other hand, our observationally based methods did correctly identify the location and composition of a relatively small nearby chemical plant. This paper provides strong empirical evidence that regulatory agencies and photochemical models are making predictions based on inaccurate industrial emissions. PMID:11038551

Modeling Study of Winter Ozone Pollution in Uintah Basin: A Case Study of January 15-31 in 2013 Using WRF-CAMx.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, T. T.; Tran, H. N. Q.; Mansfield, M. L.; Lyman, S. N.

2014-12-01

Since elevated ozone concentrations (>75ppb) were first detected in Uintah Basin in 2009, winter ozone pollution in Uintah Basin (Eastern Utah) has drawn researchers' attention in this region. Joint research efforts among several research groups have been undertaken to study this topic (UBOS, 2012; 2013; 2014); yet this phenomenon is still not completely understood. For example, modeling studies still face problems such as errors in emission inventories and inappropriate meteorological and chemical modeling parameterizations for winter conditions in the Uintah Basin. In this study, the SMOKE-WRF-CAMx model platform (grid resolution of 1.3km) was used to simulate ozone formation in the basin during Jan 15-31 in 2013 to compare the impacts of current bottom-up versus top-down emission inventories on modeled ozone concentrations. Different VOC emission profiles for oil and gas emissions that have been applied in various studies were also examined in CAMx and compared with available monitoring data to determine the representative profile for future studies.

Extension of an assessment model of ship traffic exhaust emissions for particulate matter and carbon monoxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalkanen, J.-P.; Johansson, L.; Kukkonen, J.; Brink, A.; Kalli, J.; Stipa, T.

2012-03-01

A method is presented for the evaluation of the exhaust emissions of marine traffic, based on the messages provided by the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which enable the positioning of ship emissions with a high spatial resolution (typically a few tens of metres). The model also takes into account the detailed technical data of each individual vessel. The previously developed model was applicable for evaluating the emissions of NOx, SOx and CO2. This paper addresses a substantial extension of the modelling system, to allow also for the mass-based emissions of particulate matter (PM) and carbon monoxide (CO). The presented Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model (STEAM2) allows for the influences of accurate travel routes and ship speed, engine load, fuel sulphur content, multiengine setups, abatement methods and waves. We address in particular the modeling of the influence on the emissions of both engine load and the sulphur content of the fuel. The presented methodology can be used to evaluate the total PM emissions, and those of organic carbon, elemental carbon, ash and hydrated sulphate. We have evaluated the performance of the extended model against available experimental data on engine power, fuel consumption and the composition-resolved emissions of PM. We have also compared the annually averaged emission values with those of the corresponding EMEP inventory, As example results, the geographical distributions of the emissions of PM and CO are presented for the marine regions of the Baltic Sea surrounding the Danish Straits.

Evaluation of Biogenic and Fire Emissions in a Global Chemistry Model with NOMADSS, DC3 and SEAC4RS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmons, L. K.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Park, M.; Kaser, L.; Apel, E. C.; Guenther, A. B.

2014-12-01

Numerous measurements of compounds produced by biogenic and fire emissions were made during several recent field campaigns in the southeast United States, providing a unique data set for emissions and chemical model evaluation. The NCAR Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-chem) is coupled to the Community Land Model (CLM), which includes the biogenic emissions model MEGAN-v2.1, allowing for online calculation of emissions from vegetation for 150 compounds. Simulations of CAM-chem for summers 2012 and 2013 are evaluated with the aircraft and ground-based observations from DC3, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS. Comparison of directly emitted biogenic species, such as isoprene, terpenes, methanol and acetone, are used to evaluate the MEGAN emissions. Evaluation of oxidation products, including methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), methacrolein, formaldehyde, and other oxygenated VOCs are used to test the model chemistry mechanism. In addition, several biomass burning inventories are used in the model, including FINN, QFED, and FLAMBE, and are compared for their impact on atmospheric composition and ozone production, and evaluated with the aircraft observations.

Multiobjective optimization model of intersection signal timing considering emissions based on field data: A case study of Beijing.

PubMed

Kou, Weibin; Chen, Xumei; Yu, Lei; Gong, Huibo

2018-04-18

Most existing signal timing models are aimed to minimize the total delay and stops at intersections, without considering environmental factors. This paper analyzes the trade-off between vehicle emissions and traffic efficiencies on the basis of field data. First, considering the different operating modes of cruising, acceleration, deceleration, and idling, field data of emissions and Global Positioning System (GPS) are collected to estimate emission rates for heavy-duty and light-duty vehicles. Second, multiobjective signal timing optimization model is established based on a genetic algorithm to minimize delay, stops, and emissions. Finally, a case study is conducted in Beijing. Nine scenarios are designed considering different weights of emission and traffic efficiency. The results compared with those using Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2010 show that signal timing optimized by the model proposed in this paper can decrease vehicles delay and emissions more significantly. The optimization model can be applied in different cities, which provides supports for eco-signal design and development. Vehicle emissions are heavily at signal intersections in urban area. The multiobjective signal timing optimization model is proposed considering the trade-off between vehicle emissions and traffic efficiencies on the basis of field data. The results indicate that signal timing optimized by the model proposed in this paper can decrease vehicle emissions and delays more significantly. The optimization model can be applied in different cities, which provides supports for eco-signal design and development.

Intelligent Evaluation Method of Tank Bottom Corrosion Status Based on Improved BP Artificial Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Feng; Dai, Guang; Zhang, Ying

According to the acoustic emission information and the appearance inspection information of tank bottom online testing, the external factors associated with tank bottom corrosion status are confirmed. Applying artificial neural network intelligent evaluation method, three tank bottom corrosion status evaluation models based on appearance inspection information, acoustic emission information, and online testing information are established. Comparing with the result of acoustic emission online testing through the evaluation of test sample, the accuracy of the evaluation model based on online testing information is 94 %. The evaluation model can evaluate tank bottom corrosion accurately and realize acoustic emission online testing intelligent evaluation of tank bottom.

Refined Use of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Snapshots to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions in the GOCART Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrenko, Mariya; Kahn, Ralph; Chin, Mian; Limbacher, James

2017-10-01

Simulations of biomass burning (BB) emissions in global chemistry and aerosol transport models depend on external inventories, which provide location and strength for BB aerosol sources. Our previous work shows that to first order, satellite snapshots of aerosol optical depth (AOD) near the emitted smoke plume can be used to constrain model-simulated AOD, and effectively, the smoke source strength. We now refine the satellite-snapshot method and investigate where applying simple multiplicative emission adjustment factors alone to the widely used Global Fire Emission Database version 3 emission inventory can achieve regional-scale consistency between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD snapshots and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model. The model and satellite AOD are compared globally, over a set of BB cases observed by the MODIS instrument during the 2004, and 2006-2008 biomass burning seasons. Regional discrepancies between the model and satellite are diverse around the globe yet quite consistent within most ecosystems. We refine our approach to address physically based limitations of our earlier work (1) by expanding the number of fire cases from 124 to almost 900, (2) by using scaled reanalysis-model simulations to fill missing AOD retrievals in the MODIS observations, (3) by distinguishing the BB components of the total aerosol load from background aerosol in the near-source regions, and (4) by including emissions from fires too small to be identified explicitly in the satellite observations. The small-fire emission adjustment shows the complimentary nature of correcting for source strength and adding geographically distinct missing sources. Our analysis indicates that the method works best for fire cases where the BB fraction of total AOD is high, primarily evergreen or deciduous forests. In heavily polluted or agricultural burning regions, where smoke and background AOD values tend to be comparable, this approach encounters large uncertainties, and in some regions, other model- or measurement-related factors might contribute significantly to model-satellite discrepancies. This work sets the stage for a larger study within the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models (AeroCOM) multimodel biomass burning experiment. By comparing multiple model results using the refined technique presented here, we aim to separate BB inventory from model-specific contributions to the remaining discrepancies.

Contribution of ship emissions to the concentration of PM2.5: A comprehensive study using AIS data and WRF/Chem model in Bohai Rim Region, China.

PubMed

Chen, Dongsheng; Zhao, Na; Lang, Jianlei; Zhou, Ying; Wang, Xiaotong; Li, Yue; Zhao, Yuehua; Guo, Xiurui

2018-01-01

Compared with on-road vehicles, emission from ships is one of the least-regulated anthropogenic emission sources and non-negligible source of primary aerosols and gas-phase precursors of PM 2.5 . The Bohai Rim Region in China hosts dozens of large ports, two of which ranked among the top ten ports in the world. To determine the impact of ship emissions on the PM 2.5 concentrations over this region, two parts of works have been conducted in this study. First, a detailed ship emission inventory with high spatiotemporal resolution was developed based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Then the WRF/Chem model was applied to modeling the impact of ship emissions by comparing two scenarios: with and without ship emissions. The results indicate that the total estimated ship emissions of SO 2 , NO X , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , CO, HC, and CO 2 from Bohai Rim Region in 2014 are 1.9×10 5 , 2.9×10 5 , 2.6×10 4 , 2.4×10 4 , 2.5×10 4 , 1.2×10 4 , and 1.3×10 7 tonnes, respectively. The modeling results indicate that the annual PM 2.5 concentrations increased by 5.9% on land areas of Bohai Rim Region (the continent within 115.2°E-124.3°E and 36.1°N-41.6°N) due to ship emissions. The contributions show distinctive seasonal variations of contributions, presenting highest in summer (12.5%) followed by spring (6.9%) and autumn (3.3%), and lowest in winter (0.9%). The contribution reaches up to 10.7% along the shoreline and down to 1.0% 200km inland. After examining the statistics of the modeling results during heavy and non-heavy haze days in July, it was found that 6 out of 9 cities around the Bohai Rim Region were observed with higher contributions from ship emissions during heavy haze days compared with non-heavy haze days. These results indicate that the impacts of ship emissions on the ambient PM 2.5 are non-negligible, especially for heavy haze days for most coastal cities in the Bohai Rim Region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transport of polar and non-polar volatile compounds in polystyrene foam and oriented strand board

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Huali; Little, John C.; Hodgson, Alfred T.

Transport of hexanal and styrene in polystyrene foam (PSF) and oriented strand board (OSB) was characterized. A microbalance was used to measure sorption/desorption kinetics and equilibrium data. While styrene transport in PSF can be described by Fickian diffusion with a symmetrical and reversible sorption/desorption process, hexanal transport in both PSF and OSB exhibited significant hysteresis, with desorption being much slower than sorption. A porous media diffusion model that assumes instantaneous local equilibrium governed by a nonlinear Freundlich isotherm was found to explain the hysteresis in hexanal transport. A new nonlinear sorption and porous diffusion emissions model was, therefore, developed and partially validated using independent chamber data. The results were also compared to the more conventional linear Fickian-diffusion emissions model. While the linear emissions model predicts styrene emissions from PSF with reasonable accuracy, it substantially underestimates the rate of hexanal emissions from OSB. Although further research and more rigorous validation is needed, the new nonlinear emissions model holds promise for predicting emissions of polar VOCs such as hexanal from porous building materials.

Analysis and Design of International Emission Trading Markets Applying System Dynamics Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Bo; Pickl, Stefan

2010-11-01

The design and analysis of international emission trading markets is an important actual challenge. Time-discrete models are needed to understand and optimize these procedures. We give an introduction into this scientific area and present actual modeling approaches. Furthermore, we develop a model which is embedded in a holistic problem solution. Measures for energy efficiency are characterized. The economic time-discrete "cap-and-trade" mechanism is influenced by various underlying anticipatory effects. With a systematic dynamic approach the effects can be examined. First numerical results show that fair international emissions trading can only be conducted with the use of protective export duties. Furthermore a comparatively high price which evokes emission reduction inevitably has an inhibiting effect on economic growth according to our model. As it always has been expected it is not without difficulty to find a balance between economic growth and emission reduction. It can be anticipated using our System Dynamics model simulation that substantial changes must be taken place before international emissions trading markets can contribute to global GHG emissions mitigation.

Observations of Diurnal to Weekly Variations of Monoterpene-Dominated Fluxes of Volatile Organic Compounds from Mediterranean Forests: Implications for Regional Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fares, Silvano; Schnitzhofer, Ralf; Jiang, Xiaoyan

2013-10-01

The Estate of Castelporziano (Rome, Italy) hosts many ecosystems representative of Mediterranean vegetation, especially holm oak and pine forests and dune vegetation. In this work, basal emission factors (BEFs) of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) obtained by Eddy Covariance in a field campaign using a proton transfer reaction–time-of-flight–mass spectrometer (PTR-TOF-MS) were compared to BEFs reported in previous studies that could not measure fluxes in real-time. Globally, broadleaf forests are dominated by isoprene emissions, but these Mediterranean ecosystems are dominated by strong monoterpene emitters, as shown by the new BEFs. The original and new BEFs were used to parametrize the modelmore » of emissions of gases and aerosols from nature (MEGAN v2.1), and model outputs were compared with measured fluxes. Results showed good agreement between modeled and measured fluxes when a model was used to predict radiative transfer and energy balance across the canopy. We then evaluated whether changes in BVOC emissions can affect the chemistry of the atmosphere and climate at a regional level. MEGAN was run together with the land surface model (community land model, CLM v4.0) of the community earth system model (CESM v1.0). Finally, results highlighted that tropospheric ozone concentration and air temperature predicted from the model are sensitive to the magnitude of BVOC emissions, thus demonstrating the importance of adopting the proper BEF values for model parametrization.« less

Oblique Longwave Infrared Atmospheric Compensation

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-14

Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Computational Modeling...calculated assuming an emissivity of water), the emissivity was computed for the rivers and compared against the true emissivity of water. The RMS...disturbed earth in various soil types [15], tripwires [12], clouds [29, 37], aircraft coating degradation [44], and targets obscured by clutter [35] or

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Cooper, Owen; Damo, Megan; Logan, Jennifer; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Witte, Jacquie

2013-01-01

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

Coupling the snow thermodynamic model SNOWPACK with the microwave emission model of layered snowpacks for subarctic and arctic snow water equivalent retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langlois, A.; Royer, A.; Derksen, C.; Montpetit, B.; Dupont, F.; GoïTa, K.

2012-12-01

Satellite-passive microwave remote sensing has been extensively used to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) in northern regions. Although passive microwave sensors operate independent of solar illumination and the lower frequencies are independent of atmospheric conditions, the coarse spatial resolution introduces uncertainties to SWE retrievals due to the surface heterogeneity within individual pixels. In this article, we investigate the coupling of a thermodynamic multilayered snow model with a passive microwave emission model. Results show that the snow model itself provides poor SWE simulations when compared to field measurements from two major field campaigns. Coupling the snow and microwave emission models with successive iterations to correct the influence of snow grain size and density significantly improves SWE simulations. This method was further validated using an additional independent data set, which also showed significant improvement using the two-step iteration method compared to standalone simulations with the snow model.

Development and improvement of historical emission inventory in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurokawa, J. I.; Yumimoto, K.; Itahashi, S.; Maki, T.; Nagashima, T.; Ohara, T.

2016-12-01

Due to the rapid growth of economy and population, Asia becomes the largest emitter regions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in the world. To tackle this problem, it is essential to understand the current status and past trend and to estimate effectiveness of mitigation measures using monitoring data, air quality and climate models, and emission inventories. We developed a historical emission inventory in Asia for 1950-2010 base on Regional Emission Inventory in ASia (REAS) version 2. In these 6 decades, emissions of all species in Asia showed remarkable increases. Recently, the largest emitter country in Asia is China. However, in 1960s, Japan is the largest emitter country for SO2 till about 1970 and NOx till about 1980, respectively. We surveyed effectiveness of abatement measures on NOx emissions in Japan and China. In Japan, the largest effective mitigation measure is regulation for motor vehicles. In 2010, reduced amounts of NOx emissions were estimated to be 2.7 time larger than actual emissions. For China, until 2010, the most effective mitigation measure is low-NOx burner installed in power plants. Regulation of motor vehicles also assumed to reduce NOx emissions from road transport by 40% compared to those without regulations in 2010. We roughly expanded the period of NOx emissions in China and Japan till 2012 and trend between 2008 and 2012 were compared with top-down emissions estimated using inverse modeling technique and satellite observations. Compared to top-down emissions, trends of the bottom-up emissions in China (Japan) overestimated increased (decreased) ratios in 2008-2012. For China, our emissions seem to underestimate the penetration rates of FGD for NOx installed in power plants. On the other hand, decreased rates of NOx emission factors for road vehicles in Japan might be overestimated in our emissions. These differences will be reconsidered to update our bottom-up emission inventory.

Modeling Aircraft Emissions for Regional-scale Air Quality: Adapting a New Global Aircraft Emissions Database for the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunachalam, S.; Baek, B. H.; Vennam, P. L.; Woody, M. C.; Omary, M.; Binkowski, F.; Fleming, G.

2012-12-01

Commercial aircraft emit substantial amounts of pollutants during their complete activity cycle that ranges from landing-and-takeoff (LTO) at airports to cruising in upper elevations of the atmosphere, and affect both air quality and climate. Since these emissions are not uniformly emitted over the earth, and have substantial temporal and spatial variability, it is vital to accurately evaluate and quantify the relative impacts of aviation emissions on ambient air quality. Regional-scale air quality modeling applications do not routinely include these aircraft emissions from all cycles. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has developed the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), a software system that dynamically models aircraft performance in space and time to calculate fuel burn and emissions from gate-to-gate for all commercial aviation activity from all airports globally. To process in-flight aircraft emissions and to provide a realistic representation of these for treatment in grid-based air quality models, we have developed an interface processor called AEDTproc that accurately distributes full-flight chorded emissions in time and space to create gridded, hourly model-ready emissions input data. Unlike the traditional emissions modeling approach of treating aviation emissions as ground-level sources or processing emissions only from the LTO cycles in regional-scale air quality studies, AEDTproc distributes chorded inventories of aircraft emissions during LTO cycles and cruise activities into a time-variant 3-D gridded structure. We will present results of processed 2006 global emissions from AEDT over a continental U.S. modeling domain to support a national-scale air quality assessment of the incremental impacts of aircraft emissions on surface air quality. This includes about 13.6 million flights within the U.S. out of 31.2 million flights globally. We will focus on assessing spatio-temporal variability of these commercial aircraft emissions, and comparing upper tropospheric budgets of NOx from aircraft and lightning sources in the modeling domain.

Implementation of the MEGAN (v2.1) biogenic emission model in the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Stanelle, Tanja; Schröder, Sabine; Siegenthaler, Colombe; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Schultz, Martin G.

2017-02-01

A biogenic emission scheme based on the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1 (Guenther et al., 2012) has been integrated into the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model in order to calculate the emissions from terrestrial vegetation of 32 compounds. The estimated annual global total for the reference simulation is 634 Tg C yr-1 (simulation period 2000-2012). Isoprene is the main contributor to the average emission total, accounting for 66 % (417 Tg C yr-1), followed by several monoterpenes (12 %), methanol (7 %), acetone (3.6 %), and ethene (3.6 %). Regionally, most of the high annual emissions are found to be associated with tropical regions and tropical vegetation types. In order to evaluate the implementation of the biogenic model in ECHAM-HAMMOZ, global and regional biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions of the reference simulation were compared to previous published experiment results with MEGAN. Several sensitivity simulations were performed to study the impact of different model input and parameters related to the vegetation cover and the ECHAM6 climate. BVOC emissions obtained here are within the range of previous published estimates. The large range of emission estimates can be attributed to the use of different input data and empirical coefficients within different setups of MEGAN. The biogenic model shows a high sensitivity to the changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions and associated emission factors for most of the compounds. The global emission impact for isoprene is about -9 %, but reaches +75 % for α-pinene when switching from global emission factor maps to PFT-specific emission factor distributions. The highest sensitivity of isoprene emissions is calculated when considering soil moisture impact, with a global decrease of 12.5 % when the soil moisture activity factor is included in the model parameterization. Nudging ECHAM6 climate towards ERA-Interim reanalysis has an impact on the biogenic emissions, slightly lowering the global total emissions and their interannual variability.

Airborne measurements of isoprene and monoterpene emissions from southeastern U.S. forests.

PubMed

Yu, Haofei; Guenther, Alex; Gu, Dasa; Warneke, Carsten; Geron, Chris; Goldstein, Allen; Graus, Martin; Karl, Thomas; Kaser, Lisa; Misztal, Pawel; Yuan, Bin

2017-10-01

Isoprene and monoterpene emission rates are essential inputs for atmospheric chemistry models that simulate atmospheric oxidant and particle distributions. Process studies of the biochemical and physiological mechanisms controlling these emissions are advancing our understanding and the accuracy of model predictions but efforts to quantify regional emissions have been limited by a lack of constraints on regional distributions of ecosystem emission capacities. We used an airborne wavelet-based eddy covariance measurement technique to characterize isoprene and monoterpene fluxes with high spatial resolution during the 2013 SAS (Southeast Atmosphere Study) in the southeastern United States. The fluxes measured by direct eddy covariance were comparable to emissions independently estimated using an indirect inverse modeling approach. Isoprene emission factors based on the aircraft wavelet flux estimates for high isoprene chemotypes (e.g., oaks) were similar to the MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model estimates for landscapes dominated by oaks. Aircraft flux measurement estimates for landscapes with fewer isoprene emitting trees (e.g., pine plantations), were about a factor of two lower than MEGAN2.1 model estimates. The tendency for high isoprene emitters in these landscapes to occur in the shaded understory, where light dependent isoprene emissions are diminished, may explain the lower than expected emissions. This result demonstrates the importance of accurately representing the vertical profile of isoprene emitting biomass in biogenic emission models. Airborne measurement-based emission factors for high monoterpene chemotypes agreed with MEGAN2.1 in landscapes dominated by pine (high monoterpene chemotype) trees but were more than a factor of three higher than model estimates for landscapes dominated by oak (relatively low monoterpene emitting) trees. This results suggests that unaccounted processes, such as floral emissions or light dependent monoterpene emissions, or vegetation other than high monoterpene emitting trees may be an important source of monoterpene emissions in those landscapes and should be identified and included in biogenic emission models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Airborne measurements of isoprene and monoterpene emissions from southeastern U.S. forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Haofei; Guenther, Alex; Gu, Dasa

Isoprene and monoterpene emission rates are essential inputs for atmospheric chemistry models that simulate atmospheric oxidant and particle distributions. Process studies of the biochemical and physiological mechanisms controlling these emissions are advancing our understanding and the accuracy of model predictions but efforts to quantify regional emissions have been limited by a lack of constraints on regional distributions of ecosystem emission capacities. We used an airborne wavelet-based eddy covariance measurement technique to characterize isoprene and monoterpene fluxes with high spatial resolution during the 2013 SAS (Southeast Atmosphere Study) in the southeastern United States. The fluxes measured by direct eddy covariance weremore » comparable to emissions independently estimated using an indirect inverse modeling approach. Isoprene emission factors based on the aircraft wavelet flux estimates for high isoprene chemotypes (e.g., oaks) were similar to the MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model estimates for landscapes dominated by oaks. Aircraft flux measurement estimates for landscapes with fewer isoprene emitting trees (e.g., pine plantations), were about a factor of two lower than MEGAN2.1 model estimates. The tendency for high isoprene emitters in these landscapes to occur in the shaded understory, where light dependent isoprene emissions are diminished, may explain the lower than expected emissions. This result demonstrates the importance of accurately representing the vertical profile of isoprene emitting biomass in biogenic emission models. Airborne measurement-based emission factors for high monoterpene chemotypes agreed with MEGAN2.1 in landscapes dominated by pine (high monoterpene chemotype) trees but were more than a factor of three higher than model estimates for landscapes dominated by oak (relatively low monoterpene emitting) trees. This results suggests that unaccounted processes, such as floral emissions or light dependent monoterpene emissions, or vegetation other than high monoterpene emitting trees may be an important source of monoterpene emissions in those landscapes and should be identified and included in biogenic emission models.« less

An intercomparison of biogenic emissions estimates from BEIS2 and BIOME: Reconciling the differences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkinson, J.G.; Emigh, R.A.; Pierce, T.E.

1996-12-31

Biogenic emissions play a critical role in urban and regional air quality. For instance, biogenic emissions contribute upwards of 76% of the daily hydrocarbon emissions in the Atlanta, Georgia airshed. The Biogenic Emissions Inventory System-Version 2.0 (BEIS2) and the Biogenic Model for Emissions (BIOME) are two models that compute biogenic emissions estimates. BEIS2 is a FORTRAN-based system, and BIOME is an ARC/INFO{reg_sign} - and SAS{reg_sign}-based system. Although the technical formulations of the models are similar, the models produce different biogenic emissions estimates for what appear to be essentially the same inputs. The goals of our study are the following: (1)more » Determine why BIOME and BEIS2 produce different emissions estimates; (2) Attempt to understand the impacts that the differences have on the emissions estimates; (3) Reconcile the differences where possible; and (4) Present a framework for the use of BEIS2 and BIOME. In this study, we used the Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas (COAST) biogenics data which were supplied to us courtesy of the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC), and we extracted the BEIS2 data for the same domain. We compared the emissions estimates of the two models using their respective data sets BIOME Using TNRCC data and BEIS2 using BEIS2 data.« less

Improving dust emission characterization in dust models using dynamic high-resolution geomorphic erodibility map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, S. P.; Yang, Z.; Kocurek, G.

2013-12-01

Dust is known to affect the earth radiation budget, biogeochemical cycle, precipitation, human health and visibility. Despite the increased research effort, dust emission modeling remains challenging because dust emission is affected by complex geomorphological processes. Existing dust models overestimate dust emission and rely on tuning and a static erodibility factor in order to make simulated results comparable to remote sensing and ground-based observations. In most of current models, dust emission is expressed in terms of threshold friction speed, which ultimately depends mainly upon the percentage clay content and soil moisture. Unfortunately, due to the unavailability of accurate and high resolution input data of the clay content and soil moisture, estimated threshold friction speed commonly does not represent the variability in field condition. In this work, we attempt to improve dust emission characterization by developing a high resolution geomorphic map of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which is responsible for more than 50% of global dust emission. We develop this geomorphic map by visually examining high resolution satellite images obtained from Google Earth Pro and ESRI base map. Albeit subjective, our technique is more reliable compared to automatic image classification technique because we incorporate knowledge of geological/geographical setting in identifying dust sources. We hypothesize that the erodibility is unique for different geomorphic landforms and that it can be quantified by the correlation between observed wind speed and satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD). We classify the study area into several key geomorphological categories with respect to their dust emission potential. Then we quantify their dust emission potential using the correlation between observed wind speed and satellite retrieved AOD. The dynamic, high-resolution geomorphic erodibility map thus prepared will help to reduce the uncertainty in current dust models associated with poor characterization of dust sources. The baseline dust scheme used in this study is the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model, which is also a component of the community land model (CLM). Proposed improvements in the dust emission representation will help to better understand the accurate effect of dust on climate processes.

Constraining Black Carbon Aerosol over Asia using OMI Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth and the Adjoint of GEOS-Chem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Li; Henze, David K.; Grell, Georg A.; Carmichael. Gregory R.; Bousserez, Nicolas; Zhang, Qiang; Torres, Omar; Ahn, Changwoo; Lu, Zifeng; Cao, Junji;

Global assessment of the effect of climate change on ammonia emissions from seabirds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddick, Stuart N.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Blackall, Trevor D.; Tomlinson, Sam J.; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Hallsworth, Stephen; Braban, Christine F.; Tang, Y. Sim; Sutton, Mark A.

2018-07-01

Seabird colonies alter the biogeochemistry of nearby ecosystems, while the associated emissions of ammonia (NH3) may cause acidification and eutrophication of finely balanced biomes. To examine the possible effects of future climate change on the magnitude and distribution of seabird NH3 emissions globally, a global seabird database was used as input to the GUANO model, a dynamic mass-flow process-based model that simulates NH3 losses from seabird colonies at an hourly resolution in relation to environmental conditions. Ammonia emissions calculated by the GUANO model were in close agreement with measured NH3 emissions across a wide range of climates. For the year 2010, the total global seabird NH3 emission is estimated at 82 [37-127] Gg year-1. This is less than previously estimated using a simple temperature-dependent empirical model, mainly due to inclusion of nitrogen wash-off from colonies during precipitation events in the GUANO model. High precipitation, especially between 40° and 60° S, results in total emissions for the penguin species that are 82% smaller than previously estimated, while for species found in dry tropical areas, emissions are 83-133% larger. Application of temperature anomalies for several IPCC scenarios for 2099 in the GUANO model indicated a predicted net increase in global seabird NH3 emissions of 27% (B1 scenario) and 39% (A2 scenario), compared with the 2010 estimates. At individual colonies, the net change was the result of influences of temperature, precipitation and relative humidity change, with smaller effects of wind-speed changes. The largest increases in NH3 emissions (mean: 60% [486 to -50] increase; A2 scenario for 2099 compared with 2010) were found for colonies 40°S to 65°N, and may lead to increased plant growth and decreased biodiversity by eliminating nitrogen sensitive plant species. Only 7% of the seabird colonies assessed globally (mainly limited to the sub-polar Southern Ocean) were estimated to experience a reduction in NH3 emission (average: -18% [-50 to 0] reduction between 2010 and 2099, A2 scenario), where an increase in precipitation was found to more than offset the effect of rising temperatures.

Contributions of wood smoke and vehicle emissions to ambient concentrations of volatile organic compounds and particulate matter during the Yakima wintertime nitrate study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanderSchelden, Graham; de Foy, Benjamin; Herring, Courtney; Kaspari, Susan; VanReken, Tim; Jobson, Bertram

2017-02-01

A multiple linear regression (MLR) chemical mass balance model was applied to data collected during an air quality field experiment in Yakima, WA, during January 2013 to determine the relative contribution of residential wood combustion (RWC) and vehicle emissions to ambient pollutant levels. Acetonitrile was used as a chemical tracer for wood burning and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as a chemical tracer for mobile sources. RWC was found to be a substantial source of gas phase air toxics in wintertime. The MLR model found RWC primarily responsible for emissions of formaldehyde (73%), acetaldehyde (69%), and black carbon (55%) and mobile sources primarily responsible for emissions of carbon monoxide (CO; 83%), toluene (81%), C2-alkylbenzenes (81%), and benzene (64%). When compared with the Environmental Protection Agency's 2011 winter emission inventory, the MLR results suggest that the contribution of RWC to CO emissions was underestimated in the inventory by a factor of 2. Emission ratios to NOx from the MLR model agreed to within 25% with wintertime emission ratios predicted from the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) 2010b emission model for Yakima County for all pollutants modeled except for CO, C2-alkylbenzenes, and black carbon. The MLR model results suggest that MOVES was overpredicting mobile source emissions of CO relative to NOx by a factor of 1.33 and black carbon relative to NOx by about a factor of 3.

Effect of climate change and CO2 inhibition on isoprene emissions in Europe calculated using the ALARO-0 regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauwens, Maite; Müller, Jean-François; Stavrakou, Trisevgeni; De Cruz, Lesley; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Termonia, Piet; De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq

2017-04-01

Isoprene is the dominant biogenic hydrocarbon emitted in the atmosphere, with global annual emissions estimated at ca. 400-600 Tg (Guenther et al. 2006). It plays a key role in the atmospheric composition because of its influence on tropospheric ozone formation in polluted environments and its contribution to particulate matter. Its emissions depend on the type and abundance of plants, and are modulated by meteorological parameters. Climate changes therefore affect the spatiotemporal and interannual variation of these emissions. In this study we estimate the isoprene fluxes emitted by vegetation in past and future climate over the European (EURO-CORDEX) domain using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014).We first calculate isoprene emissions over 1979-2012 based on the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, we compare with available isoprene flux measurements, and we investigate the sensitivity to solar radiation changes observed at European stations. The interannual variability and emission trends on regional and country level are derived and discussed. Next, we perform simulations using the output of the ALARO-0 regional climate model (Giot et al., 2015) forced by the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over 2071-2099, and compare with the historical emissions over 1976-2005 derived by the same model. Furthermore, we incorporate the inhibition of isoprene emissions to the enhanced CO2 levels of the climate projections through two different parameterizations. The future climate scenarios result in higher isoprene emissions over the European domain increased by 6%, 33% and 82% for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario respectively. However, the CO2 inhibition effect results in an overall decrease of isoprene emissions relative to the standard future simulation, even though this decrease is strongly sensitive to the parameterization used. The different CO2 inhibition simulations in this study show that future isoprene emission are between 11% lower and 26% higher than the present isoprene emissions over Europe. Giot, O. et al.: Validation of the ALARO-0 model within the EURO-CORDEX framework, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 8387-8409, 2015. Guenther, A. et al.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, 2006. Müller, J.-F. et al.: Global isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN, ECMWF analyses and a detailed canopy environmental model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1329-1341, 2008 Stavrakou, T. et al.: Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012 : impact of climate and land use changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4587-4605, 2014.

Seasonal and interannual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meng, L.; Paudel, R.; Hess, P. G. M.

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. Our goal for this study is three-fold: (i) to evaluate the wetland methane fluxes simulated in two versions of the Community Land Model, the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN; i.e., CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC; i.e., CLM4.5) versions using the methane emission model CLM4Me' so as to determine the sensitivity of the emissions to the underlying carbon model; (ii) to compare the simulated atmospheric methane concentrations to observations, including latitudinal gradients and interannual variability so as to determine the extent to which themore » atmospheric observations constrain the emissions; (iii) to understand the drivers of seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. Simulations of the transport and removal of methane use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) model in conjunction with CLM4Me' methane emissions from both CN and BGC simulations and other methane emission sources from literature. In each case we compare model-simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations. In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions derived from a different terrestrial ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT). Our analysis indicates CN wetland methane emissions are higher in the tropics and lower at high latitudes than emissions from BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN version, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem simulations with CLM4Me' methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentration. Simulated atmospheric CH 4 concentrations in CAM-chem are highly correlated with observations at most of the 14 measurement stations evaluated with an average correlation between 0.71 and 0.80 depending on the simulation (for the period of 1993–2004 for most stations based on data availability). Our results suggest that different spatial patterns of wetland emissions can have significant impacts on Northern and Southern hemisphere (N–S) atmospheric CH 4 concentration gradients and growth rates. In conclusion, this study suggests that both anthropogenic and wetland emissions have significant contributions to seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. However, our analysis also indicates the existence of large uncertainties in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude of global wetland methane budgets, and that substantial uncertainty comes from the carbon model underlying the methane flux modules.« less

Seasonal and interannual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

DOE PAGES

Meng, L.; Paudel, R.; Hess, P. G. M.; ...

2015-07-03

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. Our goal for this study is three-fold: (i) to evaluate the wetland methane fluxes simulated in two versions of the Community Land Model, the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN; i.e., CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC; i.e., CLM4.5) versions using the methane emission model CLM4Me' so as to determine the sensitivity of the emissions to the underlying carbon model; (ii) to compare the simulated atmospheric methane concentrations to observations, including latitudinal gradients and interannual variability so as to determine the extent to which themore » atmospheric observations constrain the emissions; (iii) to understand the drivers of seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. Simulations of the transport and removal of methane use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) model in conjunction with CLM4Me' methane emissions from both CN and BGC simulations and other methane emission sources from literature. In each case we compare model-simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations. In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions derived from a different terrestrial ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT). Our analysis indicates CN wetland methane emissions are higher in the tropics and lower at high latitudes than emissions from BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN version, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem simulations with CLM4Me' methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentration. Simulated atmospheric CH 4 concentrations in CAM-chem are highly correlated with observations at most of the 14 measurement stations evaluated with an average correlation between 0.71 and 0.80 depending on the simulation (for the period of 1993–2004 for most stations based on data availability). Our results suggest that different spatial patterns of wetland emissions can have significant impacts on Northern and Southern hemisphere (N–S) atmospheric CH 4 concentration gradients and growth rates. In conclusion, this study suggests that both anthropogenic and wetland emissions have significant contributions to seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. However, our analysis also indicates the existence of large uncertainties in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude of global wetland methane budgets, and that substantial uncertainty comes from the carbon model underlying the methane flux modules.« less

Determining the Uncertainties in Prescribed Burn Emissions Through Comparison of Satellite Estimates to Ground-based Estimates and Air Quality Model Evaluations in Southeastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odman, M. T.; Hu, Y.; Russell, A. G.

2016-12-01

Prescribed burning is practiced throughout the US, and most widely in the Southeast, for the purpose of maintaining and improving the ecosystem, and reducing the wildfire risk. However, prescribed burn emissions contribute significantly to the of trace gas and particulate matter loads in the atmosphere. In places where air quality is already stressed by other anthropogenic emissions, prescribed burns can lead to major health and environmental problems. Air quality modeling efforts are under way to assess the impacts of prescribed burn emissions. Operational forecasts of the impacts are also emerging for use in dynamic management of air quality as well as the burns. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist in the process of estimating prescribed burn emissions and these uncertainties limit the accuracy of the burn impact predictions. Prescribed burn emissions are estimated by using either ground-based information or satellite observations. When there is sufficient local information about the burn area, the types of fuels, their consumption amounts, and the progression of the fire, ground-based estimates are more accurate. In the absence of such information satellites remain as the only reliable source for emission estimation. To determine the level of uncertainty in prescribed burn emissions, we compared estimates derived from a burn permit database and other ground-based information to the estimates by the Biomass Burning Emissions Product derived from a constellation of NOAA and NASA satellites. Using these emissions estimates we conducted simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and predicted trace gas and particulate matter concentrations throughout the Southeast for two consecutive burn seasons (2015 and 2016). In this presentation, we will compare model predicted concentrations to measurements at monitoring stations and evaluate if the differences are commensurate with our emission uncertainty estimates. We will also investigate if spatial and temporal patterns in the differences reveal the sources of the uncertainty in the prescribed burn emission estimates.

Modelling soil dust aerosol in the Bodélé depression during the BoDEx campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegen, I.; Heinold, B.; Todd, M.; Helmert, J.; Washington, R.; Dubovik, O.

2006-05-01

We present regional model simulations of the dust emission events during the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) that was carried out in February and March 2005 in Chad. A box model version of the dust emission model is used to test different input parameters for the emission model, and to compare the dust emissions computed with observed wind speeds to those calculated with wind speeds from the regional model simulation. While field observations indicate that dust production occurs via self-abrasion of saltating diatomite flakes in the Bodélé, the emission model based on the assumption of dust production by saltation and using observed surface wind speeds as input parameters reproduces observed dust optical thicknesses well. Although the peak wind speeds in the regional model underestimate the highest wind speeds occurring on 10-12 March 2005, the spatio-temporal evolution of the dust cloud can be reasonably well reproduced by this model. Dust aerosol interacts with solar and thermal radiation in the regional model; it is responsible for a decrease in maximum daytime temperatures by about 5 K at the beginning the dust storm on 10 March 2005. This direct radiative effect of dust aerosol accounts for about half of the measured temperature decrease compared to conditions on 8 March. Results from a global dust model suggest that the dust from the Bodélé is an important contributor to dust crossing the African Savannah region towards the Gulf of Guinea and the equatorial Atlantic, where it can contribute up to 40% to the dust optical thickness.

Modelling soil dust aerosol in the Bodélé depression during the BoDEx campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegen, I.; Heinold, B.; Todd, M.; Helmert, J.; Washington, R.; Dubovik, O.

2006-09-01

We present regional model simulations of the dust emission events during the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) that was carried out in February and March 2005 in Chad. A box model version of the dust emission model is used to test different input parameters for the emission model, and to compare the dust emissions computed with observed wind speeds to those calculated with wind speeds from the regional model simulation. While field observations indicate that dust production occurs via self-abrasion of saltating diatomite flakes in the Bodélé, the emission model based on the assumption of dust production by saltation and using observed surface wind speeds as input parameters reproduces observed dust optical thicknesses well. Although the peak wind speeds in the regional model underestimate the highest wind speeds occurring on 10-12 March 2005, the spatio-temporal evolution of the dust cloud can be reasonably well reproduced by this model. Dust aerosol interacts with solar and thermal radiation in the regional model; it is responsible for a decrease in maximum daytime temperatures by about 5 K at the beginning the dust storm on 10 March 2005. This direct radiative effect of dust aerosol accounts for about half of the measured temperature decrease compared to conditions on 8 March. Results from a global dust model suggest that the dust from the Bodélé is an important contributor to dust crossing the African Savannah region towards the Gulf of Guinea and the equatorial Atlantic, where it can contribute up to 40% to the dust optical thickness.

Investigating fire emissions and smoke transport during the Summer of 2013 using an operational smoke modeling system and chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ONeill, S. M.; Chung, S. H.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Larkin, N. K.; Martinez, M. E.; Solomon, R. C.; Rorig, M.

2014-12-01

Emissions from fires in the Western US are substantial and can impact air quality and regional climate. Many methods exist that estimate the particulate and gaseous emissions from fires, including those run operationally for use with chemical forecast models. The US Forest Service Smartfire2/BlueSky modeling framework uses satellite data and reported information about fire perimeters to estimate emissions of pollutants to the atmosphere. The emission estimates are used as inputs to dispersion models, such as HYSPLIT, and chemical transport models, such as CMAQ and WRF-Chem, to assess the chemical and physical impacts of fires on the atmosphere. Here we investigate the use of Smartfire2/BlueSky and WRF-Chem to simulate emissions from the 2013 fire summer fire season, with special focus on the Rim Fire in northern California. The 2013 Rim Fire ignited on August 17 and eventually burned more than 250,000 total acres before being contained on October 24. Large smoke plumes and pyro-convection events were observed. In this study, the Smartfire2/BlueSky operational emission estimates are compared to other estimation methods, such as the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) and other global databases to quantify variations in emission estimation methods for this wildfire event. The impact of the emissions on downwind chemical composition is investigated with the coupled meteorology-chemistry WRF-Chem model. The inclusion of aerosol-cloud and aerosol-radiation interactions in the model framework enables the evaluation of the downwind impacts of the fire plume. The emissions and modeled chemistry can also be evaluated with data collected from the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) aircraft field campaign, which intersected the fire plume.

Smoke and Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larkin, N. K.; Raffuse, S.; Strand, T.; Solomon, R.; Sullivan, D.; Wheeler, N.

2008-12-01

Fire emissions and smoke impacts from wildland fire are a growing concern due to increasing fire season severity, dwindling tolerance of smoke by the public, tightening air quality regulations, and their role in climate change issues. Unfortunately, while a number of models and modeling system solutions are available to address these issues, the lack of quantitative information on the limitations and difference between smoke and emissions models impedes the use of these tools for real-world applications (JFSP, 2007). We describe a new, open-access project to directly address this issue, the open-access Smoke Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP) and invite the community to participate. Preliminary work utilizing the modular BlueSky framework to directly compare fire location and size information, fuel loading amounts, fuel consumption rates, and fire emissions from a number of current models that has found model-to-model variability as high as two orders of magnitude for an individual fire. Fire emissions inventories also show significant variability on both regional and national scales that are dependant on the fire location information used (ground report vs. satellite), the fuel loading maps assumed, and the fire consumption models employed. SEMIP expands on this work and creates an open-access database of model results and observations with the goal of furthering model development and model prediction usability for real-world decision support.

Comparative Analysis of Modeling Studies on China's Future Energy and Emissions Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David

The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specificmore » section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO{sub 2} savings potential back to the underlying strategies and combination of efficiency and abatement policy instruments represented by each scenario, this analysis also had other important but often overlooked findings.« less

Comparisons of MOVES Light-duty Gasoline NOx Emission Rates with Real-world Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, D.; Sonntag, D.; Warila, J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have shown differences between air quality model estimates and monitored values for nitrogen oxides. Several studies have suggested that the discrepancy between monitored and modeled values is due to an overestimation of NOx from mobile sources in EPA's emission inventory, particularly for light-duty gasoline vehicles. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is an emission modeling system that estimates emissions for cars, trucks and other mobile sources at the national, county, and project level for criteria pollutants, greenhouse gases, and air toxics. Studies that directly measure vehicle emissions provide useful data for evaluating MOVES when the measurement conditions are properly accounted for in modeling. In this presentation, we show comparisons of MOVES2014 to thousands of real-world NOx emissions measurements from individual light-duty gasoline vehicles. The comparison studies include in-use vehicle emissions tests conducted on chassis dynamometer tests in support of Denver, Colorado's Vehicle Inspection & Maintenance Program and remote sensing data collected using road-side instruments in multiple locations and calendar years in the United States. In addition, we conduct comparisons of MOVES predictions to fleet-wide emissions measured from tunnels. We also present details on the methodology used to conduct the MOVES model runs in comparing to the independent data.

A model of plant isoprene emission based on available reducing power captures responses to atmospheric CO₂.

PubMed

Morfopoulos, Catherine; Sperlich, Dominik; Peñuelas, Josep; Filella, Iolanda; Llusià, Joan; Medlyn, Belinda E; Niinemets, Ülo; Possell, Malcolm; Sun, Zhihong; Prentice, Iain Colin

2014-07-01

We present a unifying model for isoprene emission by photosynthesizing leaves based on the hypothesis that isoprene biosynthesis depends on a balance between the supply of photosynthetic reducing power and the demands of carbon fixation. We compared the predictions from our model, as well as from two other widely used models, with measurements of isoprene emission from leaves of Populus nigra and hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × P. tremuloides) in response to changes in leaf internal CO2 concentration (C(i)) and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) under diverse ambient CO2 concentrations (C(a)). Our model reproduces the observed changes in isoprene emissions with C(i) and PPFD, and also reproduces the tendency for the fraction of fixed carbon allocated to isoprene to increase with increasing PPFD. It also provides a simple mechanism for the previously unexplained decrease in the quantum efficiency of isoprene emission with increasing C(a). Experimental and modelled results support our hypothesis. Our model can reproduce the key features of the observations and has the potential to improve process-based modelling of isoprene emissions by land vegetation at the ecosystem and global scales. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Modelling the time-variant dietary exposure of PCBs in China over the period 1930 to 2100.

PubMed

Zhao, Shizhen; Breivik, Knut; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

2018-06-06

This study aimed for the first time to reconstruct historical exposure profiles for PCBs to the Chinese population, by examining the combined effect of changing temporal emissions and dietary transition. A long-term (1930-2100) dynamic simulation of human exposure using realistic emission scenarios, including primary emissions, unintentional emissions and emissions from e-waste, combined with dietary transition trends was conducted by a multimedia fate model (BETR-Global) linked to a bioaccumulation model (ACC-HUMAN). The model predicted an approximate 30-year delay of peak body burden for PCB-153 in a 30-year-old Chinese female, compared to their European counterpart. This was mainly attributed to a combination of change in diet and divergent emission patterns in China. A fish-based diet was predicted to result in up to 8 times higher body burden than a vegetable-based diet (2010-2100). During the production period, a worst-case scenario assuming only consumption of imported food from a region with more extensive production and usage of PCBs would result in up to 4 times higher body burden compared to consumption of only locally produced food. However, such differences gradually diminished after cessation of production. Therefore, emission reductions in China alone may not be sufficient to protect human health for PCB-like chemicals, particularly during the period of mass production. The results from this study illustrate that human exposure is also likely to be dictated by inflows of PCBs via the environment, waste and food.

Non-growing season nitrous oxide fluxes from agricultural soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariyapperuma Athukoralage, Kumudinie

A two-year field experiment was conducted at the Arkell Research Station, Ontario, Canada to evaluate composting as a mitigation strategy for greenhouse gases (GHGs). The objectives were to quantify and compare non-growing season nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes from agricultural soils after fall manure application of composted and untreated liquid swine manure. Nitrous oxide fluxes were measured using a micrometeorological method. Compared to untreated liquid swine manure (LSM), composted swine manure (CSM) resulted in 57% reduction of soil N2O emissions during February to April in 2005, but emissions during the same period in 2006 were not affected by treatments. This effect was related to fall and winter weather conditions with the significant reduction occurring in the year when soil freezing was more pronounced. The DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition) model was tested against data measured during the non-growing seasons from 2000 to 2004, for farming with conventional management at the Elora Research Station, Ontario, Canada. The objective was to assess the ability of the DNDC model to simulate non-growing season N2O fluxes from soils in southwestern Ontario. Comparison between model-simulated and measured data indicated that background fluxes were relatively well predicted. The spring thaw N2O flux event was correctly timed by the DNDC model, but was smaller than the measured spring thaw event. Though there was no N2O emission event measured in early May, the DNDC model predicted a large event, simultaneous with the physical release of predicted ice-trapped N2O. Removing the large and late predicted emission peak and increasing the contribution of newly produced N2O due to denitrification to the early spring thaw event were proposed. Three data sets from studies conducted in Ontario, Canada were used to estimate and compare the overall GHG (N2O and methane) emissions from LSM and CSM. Compared to LSM storage, the composting process reduced GHG emissions by 35% (CO2-eq), mainly due to decreased methane fluxes. Land application of CSM showed a 38% reduction of total GHGs (CO 2-eq), compared to fall application of LSM. In comparison to liquid swine manure management systems, aerobic composting reduced the overall GHG emissions on a CO2-equivalent basis by 35%.

Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Tianyi; Liu, Xiaohong; Ma, Po -Lun

Here, global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results aremore » compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22–28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be –5.02, –18.47, and 13.45 W m –2, respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by –0.91, –3.48, and 2.57 W m –2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.« less

Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models

DOE PAGES

Fan, Tianyi; Liu, Xiaohong; Ma, Po -Lun; ...

2018-02-01

Here, global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results aremore » compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22–28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be –5.02, –18.47, and 13.45 W m –2, respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by –0.91, –3.48, and 2.57 W m –2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.« less

Directional Canopy Emissivity Estimation Based on Spectral Invariants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, M.; Cao, B.; Ren, H.; Yongming, D.; Peng, J.; Fan, W.

2017-12-01

Land surface emissivity is a crucial parameter for estimating land surface temperature from remote sensing data and also plays an important role in the physical process of surface energy and water balance from local to global scales. To our knowledge, the emissivity varies with surface type and cover. As for the vegetation, its canopy emissivity is dependent on vegetation types, viewing zenith angle and structure that changes in different growing stages. Lots of previous studies have focused on the emissivity model, but few of them are analytic and suited to different canopy structures. In this paper, a new physical analytic model is proposed to estimate the directional emissivity of homogenous vegetation canopy based on spectral invariants. The initial model counts the directional absorption in six parts: the direct absorption of the canopy and the soil, the absorption of the canopy and soil after a single scattering and after multiple scattering within the canopy-soil system. In order to analytically estimate the emissivity, the pathways of photons absorbed in the canopy-soil system are traced using the re-collision probability in Fig.1. After sensitive analysis on the above six absorptions, the initial complicated model was further simplified as a fixed mathematic expression to estimate the directional emissivity for vegetation canopy. The model was compared with the 4SAIL model, FRA97 model, FRA02 model and DART model in Fig.2, and the results showed that the FRA02 model is significantly underestimated while the FRA97 model is a little underestimated, on basis of the new model. On the contrary, the emissivity difference between the new model with the 4SAIL model and DART model was found to be less than 0.002. In general, since the new model has the advantages of mathematic expression with accurate results and clear physical meaning, the model is promising to be extended to simulate the directional emissivity for the discrete canopy in further study.

Evaluation of bottom-up and downscaled emission inventories for Paris and consequences for estimating urban air pollution increments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, R.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Segers, A.; Honore, C.; Perrussel, O.; Builtjes, P.; Schaap, M.

2012-04-01

Since a major part of the Earth's population lives in cities, it is of great importance to correctly characterise the air pollution levels over these urban areas. Many studies in the past have already been dedicated to this subject and have determined so-called urban increments: the impact of large cities on the air pollution levels. The impact of large cities on air pollution levels usually is determined with models driven by so-called downscaled emission inventories. In these inventories official country total emissions are gridded using information on for example population density and location of industries and roads. The question is how accurate are the downscaled inventories over cities or large urban areas. Within the EU FP 7 project MEGAPOLI project a new emission inventory has been produced including refined local emission data for two European megacities (Paris, London) and two urban conglomerations (the Po valley, Italy and the Rhine-Ruhr region, Germany) based on a bottom-up approach. The inventory has comparable national totals but remarkable difference at the city scale. Such a bottom up inventory is thought to be more accurate as it contains local knowledge. Within this study we compared modelled nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) concentrations from the LOTOS-EUROS chemistry transport model driven by a conventional downscaled emission inventory (TNO-MACC inventory) with the concentrations from the same model driven by the new MEGAPOLI 'bottom-up' emission inventory focusing on the Paris region. Model predictions for Paris significantly improve using the new Megapoli inventory. Both the emissions as well as the simulated average concentrations of PM over urban sites in Paris are much lower due to the different spatial distribution of the anthropogenic emissions. The difference for the nearby rural stations is small implicating that also the urban increment for PM simulated using the bottom-up emission inventory is much smaller than for the downscaled emission inventory. Urban increments for PM calculated with downscaled emissions, as is common practice, might therefore be overestimated. This finding is likely to apply to other European Megacities as well.

Evaluation of a Mobile Phone for Aircraft GPS Interference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Truong X.

2004-01-01

Measurements of spurious emissions from a mobile phone are conducted in a reverberation chamber for the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio frequency band. This phone model was previously determined to have caused interference to several aircraft GPS receivers. Interference path loss (IPL) factors are applied to the emission data, and the outcome compared against GPS receiver susceptibility. The resulting negative safety margins indicate there are risks to aircraft GPS systems. The maximum emission level from the phone is also shown to be comparable with some laptop computer's emissions, implying that laptop computers can provide similar risks to aircraft GPS receivers.

The Establishment of LTO Emission Inventory of Civil Aviation Airports Based on Big Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Chengwei; Liu, Hefan; Song, Danlin; Yang, Xinyue; Tan, Qinwen; Hu, Xiang; Kang, Xue

2018-03-01

An estimation model on LTO emissions of civil aviation airports was developed in this paper, LTO big data was acquired by analysing the internet with Python, while the LTO emissions was dynamically calculated based on daily LTO data, an uncertainty analysis was conducted with Monte Carlo method. Through the model, the emission of LTO in Shuangliu International Airport was calculated, and the characteristics and temporal distribution of LTO in 2015 was analysed. Results indicates that compared with the traditional methods, the model established can calculate the LTO emissions from different types of airplanes more accurately. Based on the hourly LTO information of 302 valid days, it was obtained that the total number of LTO cycles in Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport was 274,645 and the annual amount of emission of SO2, NOx, VOCs, CO, PM10 and PM2.5 was estimated, and the uncertainty of the model was around 7% to 10% varies on pollutants.

Source emission and model evaluation of formaldehyde from composite and solid wood furniture in a full-scale chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaoyu; Mason, Mark A.; Guo, Zhishi; Krebs, Kenneth A.; Roache, Nancy F.

2015-12-01

This paper describes the measurement and model evaluation of formaldehyde source emissions from composite and solid wood furniture in a full-scale chamber at different ventilation rates for up to 4000 h using ASTM D 6670-01 (2007). Tests were performed on four types of furniture constructed of different materials and from different manufacturers. The data were used to evaluate two empirical emission models, i.e., a first-order and power-law decay model. The experimental results showed that some furniture tested in this study, made only of solid wood and with less surface area, had low formaldehyde source emissions. The effect of ventilation rate on formaldehyde emissions was also examined. Model simulation results indicated that the power-law decay model showed better agreement than the first-order decay model for the data collected from the tests, especially for long-term emissions. This research was limited to a laboratory study with only four types of furniture products tested. It was not intended to comprehensively test or compare the large number of furniture products available in the market place. Therefore, care should be taken when applying the test results to real-world scenarios. Also, it was beyond the scope of this study to link the emissions to human exposure and potential health risks.

Ammonia emission model for whole farm evaluation of dairy production systems.

PubMed

Rotz, C Alan; Montes, Felipe; Hafner, Sasha D; Heber, Albert J; Grant, Richard H

2014-07-01

Ammonia (NH) emissions vary considerably among farms as influenced by climate and management. Because emission measurement is difficult and expensive, process-based models provide an alternative for estimating whole farm emissions. A model that simulates the processes of NH formation, speciation, aqueous-gas partitioning, and mass transfer was developed and incorporated in a whole farm simulation model (the Integrated Farm System Model). Farm sources included manure on the floor of the housing facility, manure in storage (if used), field-applied manure, and deposits on pasture (if grazing is used). In a comprehensive evaluation of the model, simulated daily, seasonal, and annual emissions compared well with data measured over 2 yr for five free stall barns and two manure storages on dairy farms in the eastern United States. In a further comparison with published data, simulated and measured barn emissions were similar over differing barn designs, protein feeding levels, and seasons of the year. Simulated emissions from manure storage were also highly correlated with published emission data across locations, seasons, and different storage covers. For field applied manure, the range in simulated annual emissions normally bounded reported mean values for different manure dry matter contents and application methods. Emissions from pastures measured in northern Europe across seasons and fertilization levels were also represented well by the model. After this evaluation, simulations of a representative dairy farm in Pennsylvania illustrated the effects of animal housing and manure management on whole farm emissions and their interactions with greenhouse gas emissions, nitrate leaching, production costs, and farm profitability. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands. 2; Interannual Variations 1982-1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walter, Bernadette P.; Heimann, Martin; Mattews, Elaine; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A global run of a process-based methane model [Walter et al., this issue] is performed using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from ECMWF reanalyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions to be 260 Tg/ yr. 25% of methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 deg. N. Only 60% of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands, the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well. The effects of sub-grid scale variations in model parameters and input data are examined. Modeled methane emissions show high regional, seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal cycles of methane emissions are dominated by temperature in high latitude wetlands, and by changes in the water table in tropical wetlands. Sensitivity tests show that +/- 1 C changes in temperature lead to +/- 20 % changes in methane emissions from wetlands. Uniform changes of +/- 20% in precipitation alter methane emissions by about +/- 18%. Limitations in the model are analyzed. Simulated interannual variations in methane emissions from wetlands are compared to observed atmospheric growth rate anomalies. Our model simulation results suggest that contributions from other sources than wetlands and/or the sinks are more important in the tropics than north-of 30 deg. N. In higher northern latitudes, it seems that a large part, of the observed interannual variations can be explained by variations in wetland emissions. Our results also suggest that reduced wetland emissions played an important role in the observed negative methane growth rate anomaly in 1992.

Isoprene emission response to drought and the impact on global atmospheric chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiaoyan; Guenther, Alex; Potosnak, Mark; Geron, Chris; Seco, Roger; Karl, Thomas; Kim, Saewung; Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen

2018-06-01

Biogenic isoprene emissions play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry. These emissions are strongly dependent on various environmental conditions, such as temperature, solar radiation, plant water stress, ambient ozone and CO2 concentrations, and soil moisture. Current biogenic emission models (i.e., Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN) can simulate emission responses to some of the major driving variables, such as short-term variations in temperature and solar radiation, but the other factors are either missing or poorly represented. In this paper, we propose a new modelling approach that considers the physiological effects of drought stress on plant photosynthesis and isoprene emissions for use in the MEGAN3 biogenic emission model. We test the MEGAN3 approach by integrating the algorithm into the existing MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model framework embedded into the global Community Land Model of the Community Earth System Model (CLM4.5/CESM1.2). Single-point simulations are compared against available field measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) field site. The modelling results show that the MEGAN3 approach of using of a photosynthesis parameter (Vcmax) and soil wetness factor (βt) to determine the drought activity factor leads to better simulated isoprene emissions in non-drought and drought periods. The global simulation with the MEGAN3 approach predicts a 17% reduction in global annual isoprene emissions, in comparison to the value predicted using the default CLM4.5/MEGAN2.1 without any drought effect. This reduction leads to changes in surface ozone and oxidants in the areas where the reduction of isoprene emissions is observed. Based on the results presented in this study, we conclude that it is important to simulate the drought-induced response of biogenic isoprene emission accurately in the coupled Earth System model.

Implications of overestimated anthropogenic CO2 emissions on East Asian and global land CO2 flux inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeki, Tazu; Patra, Prabir K.

2017-12-01

Measurement and modelling of regional or country-level carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are becoming critical for verification of the greenhouse gases emission control. One of the commonly adopted approaches is inverse modelling, where CO2 fluxes (emission: positive flux, sink: negative flux) from the terrestrial ecosystems are estimated by combining atmospheric CO2 measurements with atmospheric transport models. The inverse models assume anthropogenic emissions are known, and thus the uncertainties in the emissions introduce systematic bias in estimation of the terrestrial (residual) fluxes by inverse modelling. Here we show that the CO2 sink increase, estimated by the inverse model, over East Asia (China, Japan, Korea and Mongolia), by about 0.26 PgC year-1 (1 Pg = 1012 g) during 2001-2010, is likely to be an artifact of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing too quickly in China by 1.41 PgC year-1. Independent results from methane (CH4) inversion suggested about 41% lower rate of East Asian CH4 emission increase during 2002-2012. We apply a scaling factor of 0.59, based on CH4 inversion, to the rate of anthropogenic CO2 emission increase since the anthropogenic emissions of both CO2 and CH4 increase linearly in the emission inventory. We find no systematic increase in land CO2 uptake over East Asia during 1993-2010 or 2000-2009 when scaled anthropogenic CO2 emissions are used, and that there is a need of higher emission increase rate for 2010-2012 compared to those calculated by the inventory methods. High bias in anthropogenic CO2 emissions leads to stronger land sinks in global land-ocean flux partitioning in our inverse model. The corrected anthropogenic CO2 emissions also produce measurable reductions in the rate of global land CO2 sink increase post-2002, leading to a better agreement with the terrestrial biospheric model simulations that include CO2-fertilization and climate effects.

An evaluation of the carbon balance technique for estimating emission factors and fuel consumption in forest fires

Treesearch

Nelson, Jr. Ralph M.

1982-01-01

Eighteen experimental fires were used to compare measured and calculated values for emission factors and fuel consumption to evaluate the carbon balance technique. The technique is based on a model for the emission factor of carbon dioxide, corrected for the production of other emissions, and which requires measurements of effluent concentrations and air volume in the...

A Dynamic Evaluation Of A Model And An Estimate Of The Air Quality And Regional Climate Impacts Of Enhanced Solar Power Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millstein, D.; Brown, N. J.; Zhai, P.; Menon, S.

2012-12-01

We use the WRF/Chem model (Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry) and pollutant emissions based on the EPA National Emission Inventories from 2005 and 2008 to model regional climate and air quality over the continental United States. Additionally, 2030 emission scenarios are developed to investigate the effects of future enhancements to solar power generation. Modeling covered 6 summer and 6 winter weeks each year. We model feedback between aerosols and meteorology and thus capture direct and indirect aerosol effects. The grid resolution is 25 km and includes no nesting. Between 2005 and 2008 significant emission reductions were reported in the National Emission Inventory. The 2008 weekday emissions over the continental U.S. of SO2 and NO were reduced from 2005 values by 28% and 16%, respectively. Emission reductions of this magnitude are similar in scale to the potential emission reductions from various energy policy initiatives. By evaluating modeled and observed air quality changes from 2005 to 2008, we analyze how well the model represents the effects of historical emission changes. We also gain insight into how well the model might predict the effects of future emission changes. In addition to direct comparisons of model outputs to ground and satellite observations, we compare observed differences between 2005 and 2008 to corresponding modeled differences. Modeling was extended to future scenarios (2030) to simulate air quality and regional climate effects of large-scale adoption of solar power. The 2030-year was selected to allow time for development of solar generation infrastructure. The 2030 emission scenario was scaled, with separate factors for different economic sectors, from the 2008 National Emissions Inventory. The changes to emissions caused by the introduction of large-scale solar power (here assumed to be 10% of total energy generation) are based on results from a parallel project that used an electricity grid model applied over multiple regions across the country. The regional climate and air quality effects of future large-scale solar power adoption are analyzed in the context of uncertainty quantified by the dynamic evaluation of the historical (2005 and 2008) WRF/Chem simulations.

CO2 Condensation Models for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colaprete, A.; Haberle, R.

2004-01-01

During the polar night in both hemispheres of Mars, regions of low thermal emission, frequently referred to as "cold spots", have been observed by Mariner 9, Viking and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft. These cold spots vary in time and appear to be associated with topographic features suggesting that they are the result of a spectral-emission effect due to surface accumulation of fine-grained frost or snow. Presented here are simulations of the Martian polar night using the NASA Ames General Circulation Cloud Model. This cloud model incorporates all the microphysical processes of carbon dioxide cloud formation, including nucleation, condensation and sedimentation and is coupled to a surface frost scheme that includes both direct surface condensation and precipitation. Using this cloud model we simulate the Mars polar nights and compare model results to observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Model predictions of "cold spots" compare well with TES observations of low emissivity regions, both spatially and as a function of season. The model predicted frequency of CO2 cloud formation also agrees well with MOLA observations of polar night cloud echoes. Together the simulations and observations in the North indicate a distinct shift in atmospheric state centered about Ls 270 which we believe may be associated with the strength of the polar vortex.

Improved Model of Isoprene Emissions in Africa using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Satellite Observations of Formaldehyde: Implications for Oxidants and Particulate Matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marais, E. A.; Jacob, D.; Guenther, Alex B.

We use a 2005-2009 record of isoprene emissions over Africa derived from OMI satellite observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) to better understand the factors controlling isoprene emission on the scale of the continent and evaluate the impact of isoprene emissions on atmospheric composition in Africa. OMI-derived isoprene emissions show large seasonality over savannas driven by temperature and leaf area index (LAI), and much weaker seasonality over equatorial forests driven by temperature. The commonly used MEGAN (version 2.1) global 31 isoprene emission model reproduces this seasonality but is biased high, particularly for 32 equatorial forests, when compared to OMI and relaxed-eddy accumulationmore » measurements. 33 Isoprene emissions in MEGAN are computed as the product of an emission factor Eo, LAI, and 34 activity factors dependent on environmental variables. We use the OMI-derived emissions to 35 provide improved estimates of Eo that are in good agreement with direct leaf measurements from 36 field campaigns (r = 0.55, bias = -19%). The largest downward corrections to MEGAN Eo values are for equatorial forests and semi-arid environments, and this is consistent with latitudinal transects of isoprene over West Africa from the AMMA aircraft campaign. Total emission of isoprene in Africa is estimated to be 77 Tg C a-1, compared to 104 Tg C a-1 in MEGAN. Simulations with the GEOS-Chem oxidant-aerosol model suggest that isoprene emissions increase mean surface ozone in West Africa by up to 8 ppbv, and particulate matter by up to 1.5 42 μg m-3, due to coupling with anthropogenic influences.« less

Quantification of CO emissions from the city of Madrid using MOPITT satellite retrievals and WRF simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Iris N.; Houweling, Sander; Aben, Ilse; Röckmann, Thomas; Krol, Maarten; Martínez-Alonso, Sara; Deeter, Merritt N.; Worden, Helen M.

2017-12-01

The growth of mega-cities leads to air quality problems directly affecting the citizens. Satellite measurements are becoming of higher quality and quantity, which leads to more accurate satellite retrievals of enhanced air pollutant concentrations over large cities. In this paper, we compare and discuss both an existing and a new method for estimating urban-scale trends in CO emissions using multi-year retrievals from the MOPITT satellite instrument. The first method is mainly based on satellite data, and has the advantage of fewer assumptions, but also comes with uncertainties and limitations as shown in this paper. To improve the reliability of urban-to-regional scale emission trend estimation, we simulate MOPITT retrievals using the Weather Research and Forecast model with chemistry core (WRF-Chem). The difference between model and retrieval is used to optimize CO emissions in WRF-Chem, focusing on the city of Madrid, Spain. This method has the advantage over the existing method in that it allows both a trend analysis of CO concentrations and a quantification of CO emissions. Our analysis confirms that MOPITT is capable of detecting CO enhancements over Madrid, although significant differences remain between the yearly averaged model output and satellite measurements (R2 = 0.75) over the city. After optimization, we find Madrid CO emissions to be lower by 48 % for 2002 and by 17 % for 2006 compared with the EdgarV4.2 emission inventory. The MOPITT-derived emission adjustments lead to better agreement with the European emission inventory TNO-MAC-III for both years. This suggests that the downward trend in CO emissions over Madrid is overestimated in EdgarV4.2 and more realistically represented in TNO-MACC-III. However, our satellite and model based emission estimates have large uncertainties, around 20 % for 2002 and 50 % for 2006.

A first European scale multimedia fate modelling of BDE-209 from 1970 to 2020.

PubMed

Earnshaw, Mark R; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andy J

2015-01-01

The European Variant Berkeley Trent (EVn-BETR) multimedia fugacity model is used to test the validity of previously derived emission estimates and predict environmental concentrations of the main decabromodiphenyl ether congener, BDE-209. The results are presented here and compared with measured environmental data from the literature. Future multimedia concentration trends are predicted using three emission scenarios (Low, Realistic and High) in the dynamic unsteady state mode covering the period 1970-2020. The spatial and temporal distributions of emissions are evaluated. It is predicted that BDE-209 atmospheric concentrations peaked in 2004 and will decline to negligible levels by 2025. Freshwater concentrations should have peaked in 2011, one year after the emissions peak with sediment concentrations peaking in 2013. Predicted atmospheric concentrations are in good agreement with measured data for the Realistic (best estimate of emissions) and High (worst case scenario) emission scenarios. The Low emission scenario consistently underestimates measured data. The German unilateral ban on the use of DecaBDE in the textile industry is simulated in an additional scenario, the effects of which are mainly observed within Germany with only a small effect on the surrounding areas. Overall, the EVn-BTER model predicts atmospheric concentrations reasonably well, within a factor of 5 and 1.2 for the Realistic and High emission scenarios respectively, providing partial validation for the original emission estimate. Total mean MEC:PEC shows the High emission scenario predicts the best fit between air, freshwater and sediment data. An alternative spatial distribution of emissions is tested, based on higher consumption in EBFRIP member states, resulting in improved agreement between MECs and PECs in comparison with the Uniform spatial distribution based on population density. Despite good agreement between modelled and measured point data, more long-term monitoring datasets are needed to compare predicted trends in concentration to determine the rate of change of POPs within the environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emission of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) at a waterfall in a sewer: study of main factors affecting H2S emission and modeling approaches.

PubMed

Jung, Daniel; Hatrait, Laetitia; Gouello, Julien; Ponthieux, Arnaud; Parez, Vincent; Renner, Christophe

2017-11-01

Hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) represents one of the main odorant gases emitted from sewer networks. A mathematical model can be a fast and low-cost tool for estimating its emission. This study investigates two approaches to modeling H 2 S gas transfer at a waterfall in a discharge manhole. The first approach is based on an adaptation of oxygen models for H 2 S emission at a waterfall and the second consists of a new model. An experimental set-up and a statistical data analysis allowed the main factors affecting H 2 S emission to be studied. A new model of the emission kinetics was developed using linear regression and taking into account H 2 S liquid concentration, waterfall height and fluid velocity at the outlet pipe of a rising main. Its prediction interval was estimated by the residual standard deviation (15.6%) up to a rate of 2.3 g H 2 S·h -1 . Finally, data coming from four sampling campaigns on sewer networks were used to perform simulations and compare predictions of all developed models.

Technical note: Comparison of methane ebullition modelling approaches used in terrestrial wetland models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltola, Olli; Raivonen, Maarit; Li, Xuefei; Vesala, Timo

2018-02-01

Emission via bubbling, i.e. ebullition, is one of the main methane (CH4) emission pathways from wetlands to the atmosphere. Direct measurement of gas bubble formation, growth and release in the peat-water matrix is challenging and in consequence these processes are relatively unknown and are coarsely represented in current wetland CH4 emission models. In this study we aimed to evaluate three ebullition modelling approaches and their effect on model performance. This was achieved by implementing the three approaches in one process-based CH4 emission model. All the approaches were based on some kind of threshold: either on CH4 pore water concentration (ECT), pressure (EPT) or free-phase gas volume (EBG) threshold. The model was run using 4 years of data from a boreal sedge fen and the results were compared with eddy covariance measurements of CH4 fluxes.

Modelled annual CH4 emissions were largely unaffected by the different ebullition modelling approaches; however, temporal variability in CH4 emissions varied an order of magnitude between the approaches. Hence the ebullition modelling approach drives the temporal variability in modelled CH4 emissions and therefore significantly impacts, for instance, high-frequency (daily scale) model comparison and calibration against measurements. The modelling approach based on the most recent knowledge of the ebullition process (volume threshold, EBG) agreed the best with the measured fluxes (R2 = 0.63) and hence produced the most reasonable results, although there was a scale mismatch between the measurements (ecosystem scale with heterogeneous ebullition locations) and model results (single horizontally homogeneous peat column). The approach should be favoured over the two other more widely used ebullition modelling approaches and researchers are encouraged to implement it into their CH4 emission models.

A comparison of radiative transfer models for predicting the microwave emission from soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmugge, T. J.; Choudhury, B. J.

1981-01-01

Noncoherent and coherent numerical models for predicting emission from soils are compared. Coherent models use the boundary conditions on the electric fields across the layer boundaries to calculate the radiation intensity, and noncoherent models consider radiation intensities directly. Interference may cause different results in the two approaches when coupling between soil layers in coherent models causes greater soil moisture sampling depths. Calculations performed at frequencies of 1.4 and 19.4 GHz show little difference between the models at 19.4 GHz, although differences are apparent at the lower frequency. A definition for an effective emissivity is also given for when a nonuniform temperature profile is present, and measurements made from a tower show good agreement with calculations from the coherent model.

Seasonal methane and nitrous oxide emissions of several rice cultivars in direct-seeded systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding cultivar effects on field greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in rice (Oryza sativa L.) systems is needed to improve the accuracy of predictive models used for estimating GHG emissions and determine to what extent choice of cultivar may have on GHG mitigation. We compared methane (CH4) and...

Evaluating ammonia (NH3) predictions in the NOAA National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) using in-situ aircraft and satellite measurements from the CalNex2010 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, Casey D.; Battye, William; Aneja, Viney P.; Tong, Daniel; Lee, Pius; Tang, Youhua; Nowak, John B.

2017-08-01

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) is not only a major precursor gas for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but it also negatively impacts the environment through eutrophication and acidification. As the need for agriculture, the largest contributing source of NH3, increases, NH3 emissions will also increase. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately predict ammonia concentrations. The objective of this study is to determine how well the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) system predicts ammonia concentrations using their Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model (v4.6). Model predictions of atmospheric ammonia are compared against measurements taken during the NOAA California Nexus (CalNex) field campaign that took place between May and July of 2010. Additionally, the model predictions were also compared against ammonia measurements obtained from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) on the Aura satellite. The results of this study showed that the CMAQ model tended to under predict concentrations of NH3. When comparing the CMAQ model with the CalNex measurements, the model under predicted NH3 by a factor of 2.4 (NMB = -58%). However, the ratio of the median measured NH3 concentration to the median of the modeled NH3 concentration was 0.8. When compared with the TES measurements, the model under predicted concentrations of NH3 by a factor of 4.5 (NMB = -77%), with a ratio of the median retrieved NH3 concentration to the median of the modeled NH3 concentration of 3.1. Because the model was the least accurate over agricultural regions, it is likely that the major source of error lies within the agricultural emissions in the National Emissions Inventory. In addition to this, the lack of the use of bidirectional exchange of NH3 in the model could also contribute to the observed bias.

Modeling Emissions and Vertical Plume Transport of Crop Residue Burning Experiments in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, L.; Baker, K. R.; Napelenok, S. L.; Pouliot, G.; Elleman, R. A.; ONeill, S. M.; Urbanski, S. P.; Wong, D. C.

2017-12-01

Crop residue burning has long been a common practice in agriculture with the smoke emissions from the burning linked to negative health impacts. A field study in eastern Washington and northern Idaho in August 2013 consisted of multiple burns of well characterized fuels with nearby surface and aerial measurements including trace species concentrations, plume rise height and boundary layer structure. The chemical transport model CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model) was used to assess the fire emissions and subsequent vertical plume transport. The study first compared assumptions made by the 2014 National Emission Inventory approach for crop residue burning with the fuel and emissions information obtained from the field study and then investigated the sensitivity of modeled carbon monoxide (CO) and PM2.5 concentrations to these different emission estimates and plume rise treatment with CMAQ. The study suggests that improvements to the current parameterizations are needed in order for CMAQ to reliably reproduce smoke plumes from burning. In addition, there is enough variability in the smoke emissions, stemming from variable field-specific information such as field size, that attempts to model crop residue burning should use field-specific information whenever possible.

Inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions during 2006-2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergamaschi, Peter; Karstens, Ute; Manning, Alistair J.; Saunois, Marielle; Tsuruta, Aki; Berchet, Antoine; Vermeulen, Alexander T.; Arnold, Tim; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Hammer, Samuel; Levin, Ingeborg; Schmidt, Martina; Ramonet, Michel; Lopez, Morgan; Lavric, Jost; Aalto, Tuula; Chen, Huilin; Feist, Dietrich G.; Gerbig, Christoph; Haszpra, László; Hermansen, Ove; Manca, Giovanni; Moncrieff, John; Meinhardt, Frank; Necki, Jaroslaw; Galkowski, Michal; O'Doherty, Simon; Paramonova, Nina; Scheeren, Hubertus A.; Steinbacher, Martin; Dlugokencky, Ed

2018-01-01

We present inverse modelling (top down) estimates of European methane (CH4) emissions for 2006-2012 based on a new quality-controlled and harmonised in situ data set from 18 European atmospheric monitoring stations. We applied an ensemble of seven inverse models and performed four inversion experiments, investigating the impact of different sets of stations and the use of a priori information on emissions. The inverse models infer total CH4 emissions of 26.8 (20.2-29.7) Tg CH4 yr-1 (mean, 10th and 90th percentiles from all inversions) for the EU-28 for 2006-2012 from the four inversion experiments. For comparison, total anthropogenic CH4 emissions reported to UNFCCC (bottom up, based on statistical data and emissions factors) amount to only 21.3 Tg CH4 yr-1 (2006) to 18.8 Tg CH4 yr-1 (2012). A potential explanation for the higher range of top-down estimates compared to bottom-up inventories could be the contribution from natural sources, such as peatlands, wetlands, and wet soils. Based on seven different wetland inventories from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), total wetland emissions of 4.3 (2.3-8.2) Tg CH4 yr-1 from the EU-28 are estimated. The hypothesis of significant natural emissions is supported by the finding that several inverse models yield significant seasonal cycles of derived CH4 emissions with maxima in summer, while anthropogenic CH4 emissions are assumed to have much lower seasonal variability. Taking into account the wetland emissions from the WETCHIMP ensemble, the top-down estimates are broadly consistent with the sum of anthropogenic and natural bottom-up inventories. However, the contribution of natural sources and their regional distribution remain rather uncertain. Furthermore, we investigate potential biases in the inverse models by comparison with regular aircraft profiles at four European sites and with vertical profiles obtained during the Infrastructure for Measurement of the European Carbon Cycle (IMECC) aircraft campaign. We present a novel approach to estimate the biases in the derived emissions, based on the comparison of simulated and measured enhancements of CH4 compared to the background, integrated over the entire boundary layer and over the lower troposphere. The estimated average regional biases range between -40 and 20 % at the aircraft profile sites in France, Hungary and Poland.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Michelle; Page, Lyman; Dunkley, Joanna

In 1969 Edward Conklin measured the anisotropy in celestial emission at 8 GHz with a resolution of 16.{sup 0}2 and used the data to report a detection of the cosmic microwave background dipole. Given the paucity of 8 GHz observations over large angular scales and the clear evidence for non-power-law Galactic emission near 8 GHz, a new analysis of Conklin's data is informative. In this paper, we compare Conklin's data to that from Haslam et al. (0.4 GHz), Reich and Reich (1.4 GHz), and the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP; 23-94 GHz). We show that the spectral index between Conklin'smore » data and the 23 GHz WMAP data is {beta} = -1.7 {+-} 0.1, where we model the emission temperature as T{proportional_to}{nu}{sup {beta}}. Free-free emission has {beta} Almost-Equal-To - 2.15 and synchrotron emission has {beta} Almost-Equal-To - 2.7 to -3. Thermal dust emission ({beta} Almost-Equal-To 1.7) is negligible at 8 GHz. We conclude that there must be another distinct non-power-law component of diffuse foreground emission that emits near 10 GHz, consistent with other observations in this frequency range. By comparing to the full complement of data sets, we show that a model with an anomalous emission component, assumed to be spinning dust, is preferred over a model without spinning dust at 5{sigma} ({Delta}{chi}{sup 2} = 31). However, the source of the new component cannot be determined uniquely.« less

Assessment of Particle Pollution from Jetliners: from Smoke Visibility to Nanoparticle Counting.

PubMed

Durdina, Lukas; Brem, Benjamin T; Setyan, Ari; Siegerist, Frithjof; Rindlisbacher, Theo; Wang, Jing

2017-03-21

Aviation is a substantial and a fast growing emissions source. Besides greenhouse gases, aircraft engines emit black carbon (BC), a climate forcer and air pollutant. Aviation BC emissions have been regulated and estimated through exhaust smoke visibility (smoke number). Their impacts are poorly understood because emission inventories lack representative data. Here, we measured BC mass and number-based emissions of the most popular airliner's engines according to a new emission standard. We used a calibrated engine performance model to determine the emissions on the ground, at cruise altitude, and over entire flight missions. Compared to previous estimates, we found up to a factor of 4 less BC mass emitted from the standardized landing and takeoff cycle and up to a factor of 40 less during taxiing. However, the taxi phase accounted for up to 30% of the total BC number emissions. Depending on the fuel composition and flight distance, the mass and number-based emission indices (/kg fuel burned) were 6.2-14.7 mg and 2.8 × 10 14 - 8.7 × 10 14 , respectively. The BC mass emissions per passenger-km were similar to gasoline vehicles, but the number-based emissions were relatively higher, comparable to old diesel vehicles. This study provides representative data for models and will lead to more accurate assessments of environmental impacts of aviation.

International challenge to model the long-range transport of radioxenon released from medical isotope production to six Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

DOE PAGES

Maurer, Christian; Baré, Jonathan; Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta; ...

2018-03-08

After performing a first multi-model exercise in 2015 a comprehensive and technically more demanding atmospheric transport modelling challenge was organized in 2016. Release data were provided by the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization radiopharmaceutical facility in Sydney (Australia) for a one month period. Measured samples for the same time frame were gathered from six International Monitoring System stations in the Southern Hemisphere with distances to the source ranging between 680 (Melbourne) and about 17,000 km (Tristan da Cunha). Participants were prompted to work with unit emissions in pre-defined emission intervals (daily, half-daily, 3-hourly and hourly emission segment lengths) andmore » in order to perform a blind test actual emission values were not provided to them. Despite the quite different settings of the two atmospheric transport modelling challenges there is common evidence that for long-range atmospheric transport using temporally highly resolved emissions and highly space-resolved meteorological input fields has no significant advantage compared to using lower resolved ones. As well an uncertainty of up to 20% in the daily stack emission data turns out to be acceptable for the purpose of a study like this. Model performance at individual stations is quite diverse depending largely on successfully capturing boundary layer processes. No single model-meteorology combination performs best for all stations. Moreover, the stations statistics do not depend on the distance between the source and the individual stations. Finally, it became more evident how future exercises need to be designed. Set-up parameters like the meteorological driver or the output grid resolution should be pre-scribed in order to enhance diversity as well as comparability among model runs.« less

International challenge to model the long-range transport of radioxenon released from medical isotope production to six Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maurer, Christian; Baré, Jonathan; Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta

After performing a first multi-model exercise in 2015 a comprehensive and technically more demanding atmospheric transport modelling challenge was organized in 2016. Release data were provided by the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization radiopharmaceutical facility in Sydney (Australia) for a one month period. Measured samples for the same time frame were gathered from six International Monitoring System stations in the Southern Hemisphere with distances to the source ranging between 680 (Melbourne) and about 17,000 km (Tristan da Cunha). Participants were prompted to work with unit emissions in pre-defined emission intervals (daily, half-daily, 3-hourly and hourly emission segment lengths) andmore » in order to perform a blind test actual emission values were not provided to them. Despite the quite different settings of the two atmospheric transport modelling challenges there is common evidence that for long-range atmospheric transport using temporally highly resolved emissions and highly space-resolved meteorological input fields has no significant advantage compared to using lower resolved ones. As well an uncertainty of up to 20% in the daily stack emission data turns out to be acceptable for the purpose of a study like this. Model performance at individual stations is quite diverse depending largely on successfully capturing boundary layer processes. No single model-meteorology combination performs best for all stations. Moreover, the stations statistics do not depend on the distance between the source and the individual stations. Finally, it became more evident how future exercises need to be designed. Set-up parameters like the meteorological driver or the output grid resolution should be pre-scribed in order to enhance diversity as well as comparability among model runs.« less

Estimating Lightning NOx Emissions for Regional Air Quality Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holloway, T.; Scotty, E.; Harkey, M.

2014-12-01

Lightning emissions have long been recognized as an important source of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on a global scale, and an essential emission component for global atmospheric chemistry models. However, only in recent years have regional air quality models incorporated lightning NOx emissions into simulations. The growth in regional modeling of lightning emissions has been driven in part by comparisons with satellite-derived estimates of column NO2, especially from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite. We present and evaluate a lightning inventory for the EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Our approach follows Koo et al. [2010] in the approach to spatially and temporally allocating a given total value based on cloud-top height and convective precipitation. However, we consider alternate total NOx emission values (which translate into alternate lightning emission factors) based on a review of the literature and performance evaluation against OMI NO2 for July 2007 conditions over the U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. The vertical distribution of lightning emissions follow a bimodal distribution from Allen et al. [2012] calculated over 27 vertical model layers. Total lightning NO emissions for July 2007 show the highest above-land emissions in Florida, southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Although agreement with OMI NO2 across the domain varied significantly depending on lightning NOx assumptions, agreement among the simulations at ground-based NO2 monitors from the EPA Air Quality System database showed no meaningful sensitivity to lightning NOx. Emissions are compared with prior studies, which find similar distribution patterns, but a wide range of calculated magnitudes.

Impact of plastic mulching on nitrous oxide emissions in China's arid agricultural region under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yongxiang; Tao, Hui; Jia, Hongtao; Zhao, Chengyi

2017-06-01

The denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model is a useful tool for integrating the effects of agricultural practices and climate change on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural ecosystems. In this study, the DNDC model was evaluated against observations and used to simulate the effect of plastic mulching on soil N2O emissions and crop growth. The DNDC model performed well in simulating temporal variations in N2O emissions and plant growth during the observation period, although it slightly underestimated the cumulative N2O emissions, and was able to simulate the effects of plastic mulching on N2O emissions and crop yield. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the application of plastic film increased cumulative N2O emissions and cotton lint yield compared with the non-mulched treatment. The sensitivity test showed that the N2O emissions and lint yield were sensitive to changes in climate and management practices, and the application of plastic film made the N2O emissions and lint yield less sensitive to changes in temperature and irrigation. Although the simulations showed that the beneficial impacts of plastic mulching on N2O emissions were not gained under high fertilizer and irrigation scenarios, our simulations suggest that the application of plastic film effectively reduced soil N2O emissions while promoting yields under suitable fertilizer rates and irrigation. Compared with the baseline scenario, future climate change significantly increased N2O emissions by 15-17% without significantly influencing the lint yields in the non-mulched treatment; in the mulched treatment, climate change significantly promoted the lint yield by 5-6% and significantly reduced N2O emissions by 14% in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Overall, our results demonstrate that the application of plastic film is an efficient way to address increased N2O emissions and simultaneously enhance crop yield in the future.

Methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure and use in the urban region of Boston, Massachusetts.

PubMed

McKain, Kathryn; Down, Adrian; Raciti, Steve M; Budney, John; Hutyra, Lucy R; Floerchinger, Cody; Herndon, Scott C; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Zahniser, Mark S; Jackson, Robert B; Phillips, Nathan; Wofsy, Steven C

2015-02-17

Methane emissions from natural gas delivery and end use must be quantified to evaluate the environmental impacts of natural gas and to develop and assess the efficacy of emission reduction strategies. We report natural gas emission rates for 1 y in the urban region of Boston, using a comprehensive atmospheric measurement and modeling framework. Continuous methane observations from four stations are combined with a high-resolution transport model to quantify the regional average emission flux, 18.5 ± 3.7 (95% confidence interval) g CH4 ⋅ m(-2) ⋅ y(-1). Simultaneous observations of atmospheric ethane, compared with the ethane-to-methane ratio in the pipeline gas delivered to the region, demonstrate that natural gas accounted for ∼ 60-100% of methane emissions, depending on season. Using government statistics and geospatial data on natural gas use, we find the average fractional loss rate to the atmosphere from all downstream components of the natural gas system, including transmission, distribution, and end use, was 2.7 ± 0.6% in the Boston urban region, with little seasonal variability. This fraction is notably higher than the 1.1% implied by the most closely comparable emission inventory.

Methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure and use in the urban region of Boston, Massachusetts

PubMed Central

McKain, Kathryn; Down, Adrian; Raciti, Steve M.; Budney, John; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Floerchinger, Cody; Herndon, Scott C.; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Zahniser, Mark S.; Jackson, Robert B.; Phillips, Nathan; Wofsy, Steven C.

2015-01-01

Methane emissions from natural gas delivery and end use must be quantified to evaluate the environmental impacts of natural gas and to develop and assess the efficacy of emission reduction strategies. We report natural gas emission rates for 1 y in the urban region of Boston, using a comprehensive atmospheric measurement and modeling framework. Continuous methane observations from four stations are combined with a high-resolution transport model to quantify the regional average emission flux, 18.5 ± 3.7 (95% confidence interval) g CH4⋅m−2⋅y−1. Simultaneous observations of atmospheric ethane, compared with the ethane-to-methane ratio in the pipeline gas delivered to the region, demonstrate that natural gas accounted for ∼60–100% of methane emissions, depending on season. Using government statistics and geospatial data on natural gas use, we find the average fractional loss rate to the atmosphere from all downstream components of the natural gas system, including transmission, distribution, and end use, was 2.7 ± 0.6% in the Boston urban region, with little seasonal variability. This fraction is notably higher than the 1.1% implied by the most closely comparable emission inventory. PMID:25617375

Comparative Exposure to Soy Biodiesel Emissions in an Allergic Mouse Model

EPA Science Inventory

We assessed the immunological effects following inhalation of emissions from 100% Soy biodiesel (S100) or a 20% mix with conventional petrodiesel (S20), in a house dust mite (HDM) allergic Balb/cJ mouse model. Female mice (8/group) were exposed whole body (4 hr/d, 5 d/wk, 4wk) to...

Dayglow and night glow of the Venusian upper atmosphere. Modelling and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronoff, G.; Lilensten, J.; Simon, C.; Barthélemy, M.; Leblanc, F.

2007-08-01

Aims. We present the modelling of the production of excited states of O, CO and N2 in the Venusian upper atmosphere, which allows to compute the nightglow emissions. In the dayside, we also compute several emissions, taking advantage of the small influence of resonant scattering for forbidden transitions. Methods. We compute the photoionisation and the photodissociation mechanisms, and thus the photoelectron production. We compute electron impact excitation and ionisation through a multi-stream stationary kinetic transport code. Finally, we compute the ion recombination with a stationary chemical model. Results.We predict altitude density profiles for O(1S) and O(1D) states and the emissions corresponding to their different transitions. They are found to be very comparable to the observations without the need for stratospheric emissions. In the nightside, we highlight the role of the N + O+2 reaction in the creation of the O(1S) state. This reaction has been suggested by Rees in 1975 (Frederick, 1976). It has been discussed several times afterwhile and in spite of different studies, is still controversial. However, when we take it in consideration in Venus, it is shown to be the cause of almost 90% of the state production. We calculate the production intensities of O(3S) and O(5S) states, which are needed for radiative transfer models. For CO we compute the Cameron band and the fourth positive band emissions. For N2 we compute the LBH, first and second positive bands. All these values are successfully compared to the experiment when data are available. Conclusions. For the first time, a comprehensive model is proposed to compute dayglow and nightglow emissions of the Venusian upper atmosphere. It relies on previous works with noticeable improvements, both on the transport and on the chemical aspects. In the near future, a radiative transfer model will be used to compute optically thick lines in the dayglow, and a fluid model will be added to compute ionosphere densities and temperatures. We will present the first observational results from the Pic du Midi telescope in June 2007, in order to compare with our modelling.

Neutron-$$\\gamma$$ competition for β-delayed neutron emission

DOE PAGES

Mumpower, Matthew Ryan; Kawano, Toshihiko; Moller, Peter

2016-12-19

Here we present a coupled quasiparticle random phase approximation and Hauser-Feshbach (QRPA+HF) model for calculating delayed particle emission. This approach uses microscopic nuclear structure information, which starts with Gamow-Teller strength distributions in the daughter nucleus and then follows the statistical decay until the initial available excitation energy is exhausted. Explicitly included at each particle emission stage is γ-ray competition. We explore this model in the context of neutron emission of neutron-rich nuclei and find that neutron-γ competition can lead to both increases and decreases in neutron emission probabilities, depending on the system considered. Finally, a second consequence of this formalismmore » is a prediction of more neutrons on average being emitted after β decay for nuclei near the neutron drip line compared to models that do not consider the statistical decay.« less

Changes in travel-related carbon emissions associated with modernization of services for patients with acute myocardial infarction: a case study.

PubMed

Zander, Alexis; Niggebrugge, Aphrodite; Pencheon, David; Lyratzopoulos, Georgios

2011-06-01

Little attention has been paid on the carbon footprint of different healthcare service models. We examined this question for service models for patients with acute ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We estimated carbon emissions associated with ambulance (patient) transport under a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) care model based in tertiary centres, compared with historical emissions under a thrombolysis model based in general hospitals. We used geographical information on 41,449 hospitalizations, and published UK government fuel to carbon emissions conversion factors. The average ambulance journey required for transporting a STEMI patient to its closest care point was 13.0 km under the thrombolysis model and 42.2 km under the pPCI model, producing 3.46 and 11.2 kg of CO(2) emissions, respectively. Thus, introducing pPCI will more than triple ambulance journey associated carbon emissions (by a factor of 3.24). This ratio was robust to sensitivity analysis varying assumptions on conversion factor values; and the number of patients treated. Introducing pPCI to manage STEMI patients results in substantial carbon emissions increase. Environmental profiling of service modernization projects could motivate carbon control strategies, and care pathways design that will reduce patient transport need. Healthcare planners should consider the environmental legacy of quality improvement initiatives.

Forest-atmosphere BVOC exchange in diverse and structurally complex canopies: 1-D modeling of a mid-successional forest in northern Michigan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bryan, Alexander M.; Cheng, Susan J.; Ashworth, Kirsti

Foliar emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC)dimportant precursors of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosolsdvary widely by vegetation type. Modeling studies to date typi-cally represent the canopy as a single dominant tree type or a blend of tree types, yet many forests are diverse with trees of varying height. To assess the sensitivity of biogenic emissions to tree height vari-ation, we compare two 1-D canopy model simulations in which BVOC emission potentials are homo-geneous or heterogeneous with canopy depth. The heterogeneous canopy emulates the mid-successional forest at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS). In this case, high-isoprene-emitting fo-liagemore » (e.g., aspen and oak) is constrained to the upper canopy, where higher sunlight availability increases the light-dependent isoprene emission, leading to 34% more isoprene and its oxidation products as compared to the homogeneous simulation. Isoprene declines from aspen mortality are 10% larger when heterogeneity is considered. Overall, our results highlight the importance of adequately representing complexities of forest canopy structure when simulating light-dependent BVOC emissions and chemistry.« less

Ethylene glycol emissions from on-road vehicles: implications for aqueous phase secondary organic aerosol formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. C.; Knighton, W. B.; Fortner, E.; Herndon, S. C.; Onasch, T. B.; Franklin, J.; Harley, R. A.; Gentner, D. R.; Goldstein, A. H.

2012-12-01

Ethylene glycol (HOCH2CH2OH), used as an engine coolant for most on-road vehicles, is an intermediate volatility organic compound (IVOC) with a high Henry's Law Coefficient (kH > 10,000 M atm-1) . Oxidation of ethylene glycol, especially in the atmospheric aqueous phase (clouds, fog, wet aerosol), can lead to the formation of glycolaldehyde, oxalic acid, and ultimately secondary organic aerosol. We present measurements of unexpectedly high ethylene glycol emissions in the Caldecott Tunnel near San Francisco (Summer 2010) and the Washburn Tunnel near Houston (Spring 2009). Ethylene glycol was detected using a proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) at m/z = 45, which is usually interpreted as acetaldehyde. Although not necessarily a tailpipe emission, effective fuel-based emission factors are calculated using the carbon balance method and range from 50 to 400 mg ethylene glycol per kg fuel. Total US and global emissions are estimated using these emission factors and fuel consumption rates and are compared to previous model estimates of ethylene glycol emissions (e.g., the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Model). Compared to biogenically emitted isoprene, ethylene glycol is likely a minor source of glycolaldehyde globally, but may contribute significantly to glycolaldehyde, oxalate and SOA formation in areas dominated by urban emissions.

Estimation of vegetative mercury emissions in China.

PubMed

Quan, Jiannong; Zhang, Xiaoshan; Shim, Shang Gyoo

2008-01-01

Vegetative mercury emissions were estimated within the framework of Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS3 V3.11). In this estimation, the 19 categories of U.S. Geological Survey landcover data were incorporated to generate the vegetation-specific mercury emissions in a 81-km Lambert Conformal model grid covering the total Chinese continent. The surface temperature and cloud-corrected solar radiation from a Mesoscale Meteorological model (MM5) were retrieved and used for calculating the diurnal variation. The implemented emission factors were either evaluated from the measured mercury flux data for forest, agriculture and water, or assumed for other land fields without available flux data. Annual simulations using the MM5 data were performed to investigate the seasonal emission variation. From the sensitivity analysis using two sets of emission factors, the vegetative mercury emissions in China domain were estimated to range from a lower limit of 79 x 10(3) kg/year to an upper limit of 177 x 10(3) kg/year. The modeled vegetative emissions were mainly generated from the eastern and southern China. Using the estimated data, it is shown that mercury emissions from vegetation are comparable to that from anthropogenic sources during summer. However, the vegetative emissions decrease greatly during winter, leaving anthropogenic sources as the major sources of emission.

Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

2015-12-01

The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

Climate Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone and Hydroxyl

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Bell, N.; Faluvegi, G.

2003-01-01

Climate change may influence tropospheric ozone and OH via several main pathways: (1) altering chemistry via temperature and humidity changes, (2) changing ozone and precursor sources via surface emissions, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and light- ning, and (3) affecting trace gas sinks via the hydrological cycle and dry deposition. We report results from a set of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations designed to systematically study these effects. We compare the various effects with one another and with past and projected future changes in anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone precursors. We find that white the overall impact of climate on ozone is probably small compared to emission changes, some significant seasonal and regional effects are apparent. The global effect on hydroxyl is quite large, however, similar in size to the effect of emission changes. Additionally, we show that many of the chemistry-climate links that are not yet adequately modeled are potentially important.

Building a Multivariable Linear Regression Model of On-road Traffic for Creation of High Resolution Emission Inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, James Eckhardt

Emissions inventories are an important tool, often built by governments, and used to manage emissions. To build an inventory of urban CO2 emissions and other fossil fuel combustion products in the urban atmosphere, an inventory of on-road traffic is required. In particular, a high resolution inventory is necessary to capture the local characteristics of transport emissions. These emissions vary widely due to the local nature of the fleet, fuel, and roads. Here we show a new model of ADT for the Portland, OR metropolitan region. The backbone is traffic counter recordings made by the Portland Bureau of Transportation at 7,767 sites over 21 years (1986-2006), augmented with PORTAL (The Portland Regional Transportation Archive Listing) freeway traffic count data. We constructed a regression model to fill in traffic network gaps using GIS data such as road class and population density. An EPA-supplied emissions factor was used to estimate transportation CO2 emissions, which is compared to several other estimates for the city's CO2 footprint.

Isotopic source signatures: Impact of regional variability on the δ13CH4 trend and spatial distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feinberg, Aryeh I.; Coulon, Ancelin; Stenke, Andrea; Schwietzke, Stefan; Peter, Thomas

2018-02-01

The atmospheric methane growth rate has fluctuated over the past three decades, signifying variations in methane sources and sinks. Methane isotopic ratios (δ13CH4) differ between emission categories, and can therefore be used to distinguish which methane sources have changed. However, isotopic modelling studies have mainly focused on uncertainties in methane emissions rather than uncertainties in isotopic source signatures. We simulated atmospheric δ13CH4 for the period 1990-2010 using the global chemistry-climate model SOCOL. Empirically-derived regional variability in the isotopic signatures was introduced in a suite of sensitivity simulations. These simulations were compared to a baseline simulation with commonly used global mean isotopic signatures. We investigated coal, natural gas/oil, wetland, livestock, and biomass burning source signatures to determine whether regional variations impact the observed isotopic trend and spatial distribution. Based on recently published source signature datasets, our calculated global mean isotopic signatures are in general lighter than the commonly used values. Trends in several isotopic signatures were also apparent during the period 1990-2010. Tropical livestock emissions grew during the 2000s, introducing isotopically heavier livestock emissions since tropical livestock consume more C4 vegetation than midlatitude livestock. Chinese coal emissions, which are isotopically heavy compared to other coals, increase during the 2000s leading to higher global values of δ13CH4 for coal emissions. EDGAR v4.2 emissions disagree with the observed atmospheric isotopic trend for almost all simulations, confirming past doubts about this emissions inventory. The agreement between the modelled and observed δ13CH4 interhemispheric differences improves when regional source signatures are used. Even though the simulated results are highly dependent on the choice of methane emission inventories, they emphasize that the commonly used global mean signatures are inadequate. Regional isotopic signatures should be employed in modelling studies that try to constrain methane emission inventories.

Assessing the impacts of tillage and fertilization management on nitrous oxide emissions in a cornfield using the DNDC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qi; Hui, Dafeng; Wang, Junming; Yu, Chih-Li; Li, Changsheng; Reddy, K. Chandra; Dennis, Sam

2016-02-01

Quantification and prediction of N2O emissions from croplands under different agricultural management practices are vital for sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. We simulated N2O emissions under tillage and no-tillage,and different nitrogen (N) fertilizer types and application methods (i.e., nitrification inhibitor, chicken manure, and split applications) in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The model was parameterized with field experimental data collected in Nashville, Tennessee, under various agricultural management treatments and run for a short term (3 years) and a long term (100 years). Results showed that the DNDC model could adequately simulate N2O emissions as well as soil properties under different agricultural management practices. The modeled emissions of N2O significantly increased by 35% with tillage, and decreased by 24% with the use of nitrification inhibitor, compared with no-tillage and normal N fertilization. Chicken manure amendment and split applications of N fertilizer had minor impact on N2O emission in a short term, but over a long term (100 years) the treatments significantly altered N2O emission (+35%, -10%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed that N2O emission was sensitive to mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, soil organic carbon, and the amount of total N fertilizer application. Our model results provide valuable information for determining agricultural best management practice to maintain highly productive corn yield while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Environmental impacts of organic and conventional agricultural products--are the differences captured by life cycle assessment?

PubMed

Meier, Matthias S; Stoessel, Franziska; Jungbluth, Niels; Juraske, Ronnie; Schader, Christian; Stolze, Matthias

2015-02-01

Comprehensive assessment tools are needed that reliably describe environmental impacts of different agricultural systems in order to develop sustainable high yielding agricultural production systems with minimal impacts on the environment. Today, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is increasingly used to assess and compare the environmental sustainability of agricultural products from conventional and organic agriculture. However, LCA studies comparing agricultural products from conventional and organic farming systems report a wide variation in the resource efficiency of products from these systems. The studies show that impacts per area farmed land are usually less in organic systems, but related to the quantity produced impacts are often higher. We reviewed 34 comparative LCA studies of organic and conventional agricultural products to analyze whether this result is solely due to the usually lower yields in organic systems or also due to inaccurate modeling within LCA. Comparative LCAs on agricultural products from organic and conventional farming systems often do not adequately differentiate the specific characteristics of the respective farming system in the goal and scope definition and in the inventory analysis. Further, often only a limited number of impact categories are assessed within the impact assessment not allowing for a comprehensive environmental assessment. The most critical points we identified relate to the nitrogen (N) fluxes influencing acidification, eutrophication, and global warming potential, and biodiversity. Usually, N-emissions in LCA inventories of agricultural products are based on model calculations. Modeled N-emissions often do not correspond with the actual amount of N left in the system that may result in potential emissions. Reasons for this may be that N-models are not well adapted to the mode of action of organic fertilizers and that N-emission models often are built on assumptions from conventional agriculture leading to even greater deviances for organic systems between the amount of N calculated by emission models and the actual amount of N available for emissions. Improvements are needed regarding a more precise differentiation between farming systems and regarding the development of N emission models that better represent actual N-fluxes within different systems. We recommend adjusting N- and C-emissions during farmyard manure management and farmyard manure fertilization in plant production to the feed ration provided in the animal production of the respective farming system leading to different N- and C-compositions within the excrement. In the future, more representative background data on organic farming systems (e.g. N content of farmyard manure) should be generated and compiled so as to be available for use within LCA inventories. Finally, we recommend conducting consequential LCA - if possible - when using LCA for policy-making or strategic environmental planning to account for different functions of the analyzed farming systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dressing the Coronal Magnetic Extrapolations of Active Regions with a Parameterized Thermal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nita, Gelu M.; Viall, Nicholeen M.; Klimchuk, James A.; Loukitcheva, Maria A.; Gary, Dale E.; Kuznetsov, Alexey A.; Fleishman, Gregory D.

2018-01-01

The study of time-dependent solar active region (AR) morphology and its relation to eruptive events requires analysis of imaging data obtained in multiple wavelength domains with differing spatial and time resolution, ideally in combination with 3D physical models. To facilitate this goal, we have undertaken a major enhancement of our IDL-based simulation tool, GX_Simulator, previously developed for modeling microwave and X-ray emission from flaring loops, to allow it to simulate quiescent emission from solar ARs. The framework includes new tools for building the atmospheric model and enhanced routines for calculating emission that include new wavelengths. In this paper, we use our upgraded tool to model and analyze an AR and compare the synthetic emission maps with observations. We conclude that the modeled magneto-thermal structure is a reasonably good approximation of the real one.

Modeling of pesticide emissions from agricultural ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Rong

2012-04-01

Pesticides are applied to crops and soils to improve agricultural yields, but the use of pesticides has become highly regulated because of concerns about their adverse effects on human health and environment. Estimating pesticide emission rates from soils and crops is a key component for risk assessment for pesticide registration, identification of pesticide sources to the contamination of sensitive ecosystems, and appreciation of transport and fate of pesticides in the environment. Pesticide emission rates involve processes occurring in the soil, in the atmosphere, and on vegetation surfaces and are highly dependent on soil texture, agricultural practices, and meteorology, which vary significantly with location and/or time. To take all these factors into account for simulating pesticide emissions from large agricultural ecosystems, this study coupled a comprehensive meteorological model with a dynamic pesticide emission model. The combined model calculates hourly emission rates from both emission sources: current applications and soil residues resulting from historical use. The coupled modeling system is used to compute a gridded (36 × 36 km) hourly toxaphene emission inventory for North America for the year 2000 using a published U.S. toxaphene residue inventory and a Mexican toxaphene residue inventory developed using its historical application rates and a cropland inventory. To my knowledge, this is the first such hourly toxaphene emission inventory for North America. Results show that modeled emission rates have strong diurnal and seasonal variations at a given location and over the entire domain. The simulated total toxaphene emission from contaminated agricultural soils in North America in 2000 was about 255 t, which compares reasonably well to a published annual estimate. Most emissions occur in spring and summer, with domain-wide emission rates in April, May and, June of 36, 51, and 35 t/month, respectively. The spatial distribution of emissions depends on the distribution of toxaphene soil residues, and high emission rates coincide with heavily contaminated areas.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Daily Temporal Variations of Atmospheric NH3 Emissions Following Application of Chemical Fertilizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasubramanian, S.; Koloutsou-Vakakis, S.; Rood, M. J.

2014-12-01

Improving modeling predictions of atmospheric particulate matter and deposition of reactive nitrogen requires representative emission inventories of precursor species, such as ammonia (NH3). Anthropogenic NH3 is primarily emitted to the atmosphere from agricultural sources (80-90%) with dominant contributions (56%) from chemical fertilizer usage (CFU) in regions like Midwest USA. Local crop management practices vary spatially and temporally, which influence regional air quality. To model the impact of CFU, NH3 emission inputs to chemical transport models are obtained from the National Emission Inventory (NEI). NH3 emissions from CFU are typically estimated by combining annual fertilizer sales data with emission factors. The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model is used to disaggregate annual emissions to hourly scale using temporal factors. These factors are estimated by apportioning emissions within each crop season in proportion to the nitrogen applied and time-averaged to the hourly scale. Such approach does not reflect influence of CFU for different crops and local weather and soil conditions. This study provides an alternate approach for estimating temporal factors for NH3 emissions. The DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC) model was used to estimate daily variations in NH3 emissions from CFU at 14 Central Illinois locations for 2002-2011. Weather, crop and soil data were provided as inputs. A method was developed to estimate site level CFU by combining planting and harvesting dates, nitrogen management and fertilizer sales data. DNDC results indicated that annual NH3 emissions were within ±15% of SMOKE estimates. Daily modeled emissions across 10 years followed similar distributions but varied in magnitudes within ±20%. Individual emission peaks on days after CFU were 2.5-8 times greater as compared to existing estimates from SMOKE. By identifying the episodic nature of NH3 emissions from CFU, this study is expected to provide improvements in predicting atmospheric particulate matter concentrations and deposition of reactive nitrogen.

Assessing air quality and climate impacts of future ground freight choice in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Bond, T. C.; Smith, S.; Lee, B.; Ouyang, Y.; Hwang, T.; Barkan, C.; Lee, S.; Daenzer, K.

2013-12-01

The demand for freight transportation has continued to increase due to the growth of domestic and international trade. Emissions from ground freight (truck and railways) account for around 7% of the greenhouse gas emissions, 4% of the primary particulate matter emission and 25% of the NOx emissions in the U.S. Freight railways are generally more fuel efficient than trucks and cause less congestion. Freight demand and emissions are affected by many factors, including economic activity, the spatial distribution of demand, freight modal choice and routing decision, and the technology used in each modal type. This work links these four critical aspects of freight emission system to project the spatial distribution of emissions and pollutant concentration from ground freight transport in the U.S. between 2010 and 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios are used to forecast economic activities. Future spatial structure of employment and commodity demand in major metropolitan areas are estimated using spatial models and a shift-share model, respectively. Freight flow concentration and congestion patterns in inter-regional transportation networks are predicted from a four-step freight demand forecasting model. An asymptotic vehicle routing model is also developed to estimate delivery ton-miles for intra-regional freight shipment in metropolitan areas. Projected freight activities are then converted into impacts on air quality and climate. CO2 emissions are determined using a simple model of freight activity and fuel efficiency, and compared with the projected CO2 emissions from the Second Generation Model. Emissions of air pollutants including PM, NOx and CO are calculated with a vehicle fleet model SPEW-Trend, which incorporates the dynamic change of technologies. Emissions are projected under three economic scenarios to represent different plausible futures. Pollutant concentrations are then estimated using tagged chemical tracers in an atmospheric model with the emissions serving as input.

Delay correction model for estimating bus emissions at signalized intersections based on vehicle specific power distributions.

PubMed

Song, Guohua; Zhou, Xixi; Yu, Lei

2015-05-01

The intersection is one of the biggest emission points for buses and also the high exposure site for people. Several traffic performance indexes have been developed and widely used for intersection evaluations. However, few studies have focused on the relationship between these indexes and emissions at intersections. This paper intends to propose a model that relates emissions to the two commonly used measures of effectiveness (i.e. delay time and number of stops) by using bus activity data and emission data at intersections. First, with a large number of field instantaneous emission data and corresponding activity data collected by the Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS), emission rates are derived for different vehicle specific power (VSP) bins. Then, 2002 sets of trajectory data, an equivalent of about 140,000 sets of second-by-second activity data, are obtained from Global Position Systems (GPSs)-equipped diesel buses in Beijing. The delay and the emission factors of each trajectory are estimated. Then, by using baseline emission factors for two types of intersections, e.g. the Arterial @ Arterial Intersection and the Arterial @ Collector, delay correction factors are calculated for the two types of intersections at different congestion levels. Finally, delay correction models are established for adjusting emission factors for each type of intersections and different numbers of stops. A comparative analysis between estimated and field emission factors demonstrates that the delay correction model is reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Field Measurements to Methane Emissions ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Due to both technical and economic limitations, estimates of methane emissions from landfills rely primarily on models. While models are easy to implement, there is uncertainty due to the use of parameters that are difficult to validate. The objective of this research was to compare modeled emissions using several greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reporting protocols including: (1) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); (2) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (EPA GHGRP); (3) California Air Resources Board (CARB); (4) Solid Waste Industry for Climate Solutions (SWICS); and (5) an industry model from the Dutch waste company Afvalzorg, with measured data collected over 3 calendar years from a young landfill with no gas collection system. By working with whole landfill measurements of fugitive methane emissions and methane oxidation, the collection efficiency could be set to zero, thus eliminating one source of parameter uncertainty. The models consistently overestimated annual methane emissions by a factor ranging from 4 – 32.Varying input parameters over reasonable ranges reduced this range to 1.3 - 8. Waste age at the studied landfill was less than four years and the results suggest the need for measurements at additional landfills to evaluate the accuracy of the tested models to young landfills. This is a submission to a peer reviewed journal. The paper discusses landfill emission measurements and models for a new la

Use of Radon for Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models: Sensitivity to Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Mohan L.; Douglass, Anne R.; Kawa, S. Randolph; Pawson, Steven

2004-01-01

This paper presents comparative analyses of atmospheric radon (Rn) distributions simulated using different emission scenarios and the observations. Results indicate that the model generally reproduces observed distributions of Rn but there are some biases in the model related to differences in large-scale and convective transport. Simulations presented here use an off-line three-dimensional chemical transport model driven by assimilated winds and two scenarios of Rn fluxes (atom/cm s) from ice-free land surfaces: (A) globally uniform flux of 1.0, and (B) uniform flux of 1.0 between 60 deg. S and 30 deg. N followed by a sharp linear decrease to 0.2 at 70 deg. N. We considered an additional scenario (C) where Rn emissions for case A were uniformly reduced by 28%. Results show that case A overpredicts observed Rn distributions in both hemispheres. Simulated northern hemispheric (NH) Rn distributions from cases B and C compare better with the observations, but are not discernible from each other. In the southern hemisphere, surface Rn distributions from case C compare better with the observations. We performed a synoptic scale source-receptor analysis for surface Rn to locate regions with ratios B/A and B/C less than 0.5. Considering an uncertainty in regional Rn emissions of a factor of two, our analysis indicates that additional measurements of surface Rn particularly during April-October and north of 50 deg. N over the Pacific as well as Atlantic regions would make it possible to determine if the proposed latitude gradient in Rn emissions is superior to a uniform flux scenario.

Further validation of artificial neural network-based emissions simulation models for conventional and hybrid electric vehicles.

PubMed

Tóth-Nagy, Csaba; Conley, John J; Jarrett, Ronald P; Clark, Nigel N

2006-07-01

With the advent of hybrid electric vehicles, computer-based vehicle simulation becomes more useful to the engineer and designer trying to optimize the complex combination of control strategy, power plant, drive train, vehicle, and driving conditions. With the desire to incorporate emissions as a design criterion, researchers at West Virginia University have developed artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting emissions from heavy-duty vehicles. The ANN models were trained on engine and exhaust emissions data collected from transient dynamometer tests of heavy-duty diesel engines then used to predict emissions based on engine speed and torque data from simulated operation of a tractor truck and hybrid electric bus. Simulated vehicle operation was performed with the ADVISOR software package. Predicted emissions (carbon dioxide [CO2] and oxides of nitrogen [NO(x)]) were then compared with actual emissions data collected from chassis dynamometer tests of similar vehicles. This paper expands on previous research to include different driving cycles for the hybrid electric bus and varying weights of the conventional truck. Results showed that different hybrid control strategies had a significant effect on engine behavior (and, thus, emissions) and may affect emissions during different driving cycles. The ANN models underpredicted emissions of CO2 and NO(x) in the case of a class-8 truck but were more accurate as the truck weight increased.

Process-based Modeling of Ammonia Emission from Beef Cattle Feedyards with the Integrated Farm Systems Model.

PubMed

Waldrip, Heidi M; Rotz, C Alan; Hafner, Sasha D; Todd, Richard W; Cole, N Andy

2014-07-01

Ammonia (NH) volatilization from manure in beef cattle feedyards results in loss of agronomically important nitrogen (N) and potentially leads to overfertilization and acidification of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, NH is involved in the formation of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM), which can affect human health. Process-based models have been developed to estimate NH emissions from various livestock production systems; however, little work has been conducted to assess their accuracy for large, open-lot beef cattle feedyards. This work describes the extension of an existing process-based model, the Integrated Farm Systems Model (IFSM), to include simulation of N dynamics in this type of system. To evaluate the model, IFSM-simulated daily per capita NH emission rates were compared with emissions data collected from two commercial feedyards in the Texas High Plains from 2007 to 2009. Model predictions were in good agreement with observations and were sensitive to variations in air temperature and dietary crude protein concentration. Predicted mean daily NH emission rates for the two feedyards had 71 to 81% agreement with observations. In addition, IFSM estimates of annual feedyard emissions were within 11 to 24% of observations, whereas a constant emission factor currently in use by the USEPA underestimated feedyard emissions by as much as 79%. The results from this study indicate that IFSM can quantify average feedyard NH emissions, assist with emissions reporting, provide accurate information for legislators and policymakers, investigate methods to mitigate NH losses, and evaluate the effects of specific management practices on farm nutrient balances. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Influence of isoprene chemical mechanism on modelled changes in tropospheric ozone due to climate and land use over the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squire, O. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Griffiths, P. T.; Jenkin, M. E.; Smith, D.; Pyle, J. A.

2015-05-01

Isoprene is a~precursor to tropospheric ozone, a key pollutant and greenhouse gas. Anthropogenic activity over the coming century is likely to cause large changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, climate and land use, all of which will alter the global vegetation distribution leading to changes in isoprene emissions. Previous studies have used global chemistry-climate models to assess how possible changes in climate and land use could affect isoprene emissions and hence tropospheric ozone. The chemistry of isoprene oxidation, which can alter the concentration of ozone, is highly complex, therefore it must be parameterised in these models. In this work, we compare the effect of four different reduced isoprene chemical mechanisms, all currently used in Earth system models, on tropospheric ozone. Using a box model we compare ozone in these reduced schemes to that in a more explicit scheme (the Master Chemical Mechanism) over a range of NOx and isoprene emissions, through the use of O3 isopleths. We find that there is some variability, especially at high isoprene emissions, caused by differences in isoprene-derived NOx reservoir species. A global model is then used to examine how the different reduced schemes respond to potential future changes in climate, isoprene emissions, anthropogenic emissions and land use change. We find that, particularly in isoprene-rich regions, the response of the schemes varies considerably. The wide-ranging response is due to differences in the model descriptions of the peroxy radical chemistry, particularly their relative rates of reaction towards NO, leading to ozone formation, or HO2, leading to termination. Also important is the yield of isoprene nitrates and peroxyacyl nitrate precursors from isoprene oxidation. Those schemes that produce less of these NOx reservoir species, tend to produce more ozone locally and less away from the source region. We also note changes in other key oxidants such as NO3 and OH (due to the inclusion of additional isoprene-derived HOx recycling pathways). These have implications for secondary organic aerosol formation, as does the inclusion of an epoxide formation pathway in one of the mechanisms. By combining the emissions and O3 data from all of the global model integrations, we are able to construct isopleth plots comparable to those from the box model analysis. We find that the global and box model isopleths show good qualitative agreement, suggesting that comparing chemical mechanisms with a box model in this framework is a useful tool for assessing mechanistic performance in complex global models. We conclude that as the choice of reduced isoprene mechanism may alter both the magnitude and sign of the ozone response, how isoprene chemistry is parameterised in perturbation experiments such as these is a crucially important consideration. More measurements and laboratory studies are needed to validate these reduced mechanisms especially under high-volatile-organic-compound, low-NOx conditions.

Two Surface Temperature Retrieval Methods Compared Over Agricultural Lands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, Andrew N.; Schmugge, Thomas J.; Jacob, Frederic; Ogawa, Kenta; Houser, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Accurate, spatially distributed surface temperatures are required for modeling evapotranspiration (ET) over agricultural fields under wide ranging conditions, including stressed and unstressed vegetation. Modeling approaches that use surface temperature observations, however, have the burden of estimating surface emissivities. Emissivity estimation, the subject of much recent research, is facilitated by observations in multiple thermal infrared bands. But it is nevertheless a difficult task. Using observations from a multiband thermal sensor, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), estimated surface emissivities and temperatures are retrieved in two different ways: the temperature emissivity separation approach (TES) and the normalized emissivity approach (NEM). Both rely upon empirical relationships, but the assumed relationships are different. TES relies upon a relationship between the minimum spectral emissivity and the range of observed emissivities. NEM relies upon an assumption that at least one thermal band has a pre-determined emissivity (close to 1.0). The benefits and consequences of each approach will be demonstrated for two different landscapes: one in central Oklahoma, USA and another in southern New Mexico.

Simplification of a dust emission scheme and comparison with data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yaping

2004-05-01

A simplification of a dust emission scheme is proposed, which takes into account of saltation bombardment and aggregates disintegration. The statement of the scheme is that dust emission is proportional to streamwise saltation flux, but the proportionality depends on soil texture and soil plastic pressure p. For small p values (loose soils), dust emission rate is proportional to u*4 (u* is friction velocity) but not necessarily so in general. The dust emission predictions using the scheme are compared with several data sets published in the literature. The comparison enables the estimate of a model parameter and soil plastic pressure for various soils. While more data are needed for further verification, a general guideline for choosing model parameters is recommended.

The generation of amplified spontaneous emission in high-power CPA laser systems.

PubMed

Keppler, Sebastian; Sävert, Alexander; Körner, Jörg; Hornung, Marco; Liebetrau, Hartmut; Hein, Joachim; Kaluza, Malte Christoph

2016-03-01

An analytical model is presented describing the temporal intensity contrast determined by amplified spontaneous emission in high-intensity laser systems which are based on the principle of chirped pulse amplification. The model describes both the generation and the amplification of the amplified spontaneous emission for each type of laser amplifier. This model is applied to different solid state laser materials which can support the amplification of pulse durations ≤350 fs . The results are compared to intensity and fluence thresholds, e.g. determined by damage thresholds of a certain target material to be used in high-intensity applications. This allows determining if additional means for contrast improvement, e.g. plasma mirrors, are required for a certain type of laser system and application. Using this model, the requirements for an optimized high-contrast front-end design are derived regarding the necessary contrast improvement and the amplified "clean" output energy for a desired focussed peak intensity. Finally, the model is compared to measurements at three different high-intensity laser systems based on Ti:Sapphire and Yb:glass. These measurements show an excellent agreement with the model.

Dust models post-Planck: constraining the far-infrared opacity of dust in the diffuse interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanciullo, L.; Guillet, V.; Aniano, G.; Jones, A. P.; Ysard, N.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Boulanger, F.; Köhler, M.

2015-08-01

Aims: We compare the performance of several dust models in reproducing the dust spectral energy distribution (SED) per unit extinction in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM). We use our results to constrain the variability of the optical properties of big grains in the diffuse ISM, as published by the Planck collaboration. Methods: We use two different techniques to compare the predictions of dust models to data from the Planck HFI, IRAS, and SDSS surveys. First, we fit the far-infrared emission spectrum to recover the dust extinction and the intensity of the interstellar radiation field (ISRF). Second, we infer the ISRF intensity from the total power emitted by dust per unit extinction, and then predict the emission spectrum. In both cases, we test the ability of the models to reproduce dust emission and extinction at the same time. Results: We identify two issues. Not all models can reproduce the average dust emission per unit extinction: there are differences of up to a factor ~2 between models, and the best accord between model and observation is obtained with the more emissive grains derived from recent laboratory data on silicates and amorphous carbons. All models fail to reproduce the variations in the emission per unit extinction if the only variable parameter is the ISRF intensity: this confirms that the optical properties of dust are indeed variable in the diffuse ISM. Conclusions: Diffuse ISM observations are consistent with a scenario where both ISRF intensity and dust optical properties vary. The ratio of the far-infrared opacity to the V band extinction cross-section presents variations of the order of ~20% (40-50% in extreme cases), while ISRF intensity varies by ~30% (~60% in extreme cases). This must be accounted for in future modelling. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

In-use activity, fuel use, and emissions of heavy-duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks.

PubMed

Sandhu, Gurdas S; Frey, H Christopher; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon; Jones, Elizabeth

2015-03-01

The objectives of this study were to quantify real-world activity, fuel use, and emissions for heavy duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks; evaluate the contribution of duty cycles and emissions controls to variability in cycle average fuel use and emission rates; quantify the effect of vehicle weight on fuel use and emission rates; and compare empirical cycle average emission rates with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES emission factor model predictions. Measurements were made at 1 Hz on six trucks of model years 2005 to 2012, using onboard systems. The trucks traveled 870 miles, had an average speed of 16 mph, and collected 165 tons of trash. The average fuel economy was 4.4 mpg, which is approximately twice previously reported values for residential trash collection trucks. On average, 50% of time is spent idling and about 58% of emissions occur in urban areas. Newer trucks with selective catalytic reduction and diesel particulate filter had NOx and PM cycle average emission rates that were 80% lower and 95% lower, respectively, compared to older trucks without. On average, the combined can and trash weight was about 55% of chassis weight. The marginal effect of vehicle weight on fuel use and emissions is highest at low loads and decreases as load increases. Among 36 cycle average rates (6 trucks×6 cycles), MOVES-predicted values and estimates based on real-world data have similar relative trends. MOVES-predicted CO2 emissions are similar to those of the real world, while NOx and PM emissions are, on average, 43% lower and 300% higher, respectively. The real-world data presented here can be used to estimate benefits of replacing old trucks with new trucks. Further, the data can be used to improve emission inventories and model predictions. In-use measurements of the real-world activity, fuel use, and emissions of heavy-duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks can be used to improve the accuracy of predictive models, such as MOVES, and emissions inventories. Further, the activity data from this study can be used to generate more representative duty cycles for more accurate chassis dynamometer testing. Comparisons of old and new model year diesel trucks are useful in analyzing the effect of fleet turnover. The analysis of effect of haul weight on fuel use can be used by fleet managers to optimize operations to reduce fuel cost.

Observations of the 10-micron natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Espenak, F.; Deming, D.; Jennings, D.; Kostiuk, T.; Mumma, M.; Zipoy, D.

1983-01-01

Observations of the total flux and center to limb dependence of the nonthermal emission occurring in the cores of the 9.4 and 10.4 micrometers CO2 bands on Mars are compared to a theoretical model based on this mechanism. The model successfully reproduces the observed center to limb dependence of this emission, to within the limits imposed by the spatial resolution of the observations of Mars and Venus. The observed flux from Mars agrees closely with the prediction of the model; the flux observed from Venus is 74 percent of the flux predicted by the model. This emission is used to obtain the kinetic temperatures of the Martian and Venusian mesospheres. For Mars near 70 km altitude, a rotational temperature analysis using five lines gives T = 135 + or - 20 K. The frequency width of the emission is also analyzed to derive a temperature of 126 + or - 6 K. In the case of the Venusian mesosphere near 109 km, the frequency width of the emission gives T = 204 + or - 10 K.

Observations of the 10 micrometer natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, D.; Espenak, F.; Jennings, D.; Kostiuk, T.; Mumma, M. J.

1983-01-01

Observations of the total flux and center to limb dependence of the nonthermal emission occurring in the cores of the 9.4 and 10.4 micrometers CO2 bands on Mars are compared to a theoretical model based on this mechanism. The model successfully reproduces the observed center to limb dependence of this emission, to within the limits imposed by the spatial resolution of the observations of Mars and Venus. The observed flux from Mars agrees closely with the prediction of the model; the flux observed from Venus is 74% of the flux predicted by the model. This emission is used to obtain the kinetic temperatures of the Martian and Venusian mesospheres. For Mars near 70 km altitude, a rotational temperature analysis using five lines gives T = 135 + or - 20 K. The frequency width of the emission is also analyzed to derive a temperature of 126 + or - 6 K. In the case of the Venusian mesosphere near 109 km, the frequency width of the emission gives T = 204 + or - 10 K.

Can dust emission mechanisms be determined from field measurements?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, Martina; Webb, Nicholas; Gill, Thomas E.; Van Pelt, Scott; Okin, Gregory

2017-04-01

Field observations are needed to develop and test theories on dust emission for use in dust modeling systems. The dust emission mechanism (aerodynamic entrainment, saltation bombardment, aggregate disintegration) as well as the amount and particle-size distribution of emitted dust may vary under sediment supply- and transport-limited conditions. This variability, which is caused by heterogeneity of the surface and the atmosphere, cannot be fully captured in either field measurements or models. However, uncertainty in dust emission modeling can be reduced through more detailed observational data on the dust emission mechanism itself. To date, most measurements do not provide enough information to allow for a determination of the mechanisms leading to dust emission and often focus on a small variety of soil and atmospheric settings. Additionally, data sets are often not directly comparable due to different measurement setups. As a consequence, the calibration of dust emission schemes has so far relied on a selective set of observations, which leads to an idealization of the emission process in models and thus affects dust budget estimates. Here, we will present results of a study which aims to decipher the dust emission mechanism from field measurements as an input for future model development. Detailed field measurements are conducted, which allow for a comparison of dust emission for different surface and atmospheric conditions. Measurements include monitoring of the surface, loose erodible material, transported sediment, and meteorological data, and are conducted in different environmental settings in the southwestern United States. Based on the field measurements, a method is developed to differentiate between the different dust emission mechanisms.

Effects of improved spatial and temporal modeling of on-road vehicle emissions.

PubMed

Lindhjem, Christian E; Pollack, Alison K; DenBleyker, Allison; Shaw, Stephanie L

2012-04-01

Numerous emission and air quality modeling studies have suggested the need to accurately characterize the spatial and temporal variations in on-road vehicle emissions. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact that using detailed traffic activity data has on emission estimates used to model air quality impacts. The on-road vehicle emissions are estimated by multiplying the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by the fleet-average emission factors determined by road link and hour of day. Changes in the fraction of VMT from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) can have a significant impact on estimated fleet-average emissions because the emission factors for HDDV nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are much higher than those for light-duty gas vehicles (LDGVs). Through detailed road link-level on-road vehicle emission modeling, this work investigated two scenarios for better characterizing mobile source emissions: (1) improved spatial and temporal variation of vehicle type fractions, and (2) use of Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES2010) instead of MOBILE6 exhaust emission factors. Emissions were estimated for the Detroit and Atlanta metropolitan areas for summer and winter episodes. The VMT mix scenario demonstrated the importance of better characterizing HDDV activity by time of day, day of week, and road type. More HDDV activity occurs on restricted access road types on weekdays and at nonpeak times, compared to light-duty vehicles, resulting in 5-15% higher NOx and PM emission rates during the weekdays and 15-40% lower rates on weekend days. Use of MOVES2010 exhaust emission factors resulted in increases of more than 50% in NOx and PM for both HDDVs and LDGVs, relative to MOBILE6. Because LDGV PM emissions have been shown to increase with lower temperatures, the most dramatic increase from MOBILE6 to MOVES2010 emission rates occurred for PM2.5 from LDGVs that increased 500% during colder wintertime conditions found in Detroit, the northernmost city modeled.

A photoionization model for the optical line emission from cooling flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donahue, Megan; Voit, G. M.

1991-01-01

The detailed predictions of a photoionization model previously outlined in Voit and Donahue (1990) to explain the optical line emission associated with cooling flows in X-ray emitting clusters of galaxies are presented. In this model, EUV/soft X-ray radiation from condensing gas photoionizes clouds that have already cooled. The energetics and specific consequences of such a model, as compared to other models put forth in the literature is discussed. Also discussed are the consequences of magnetic fields and cloud-cloud shielding. The results illustrate how varying the individual column densities of the ionized clouds can reproduce the range of line ratios observed and strongly suggest that the emission-line nebulae are self-irradiated condensing regions at the centers of cooling flows.

Developing a regional scale approach for modelling the impacts of fertiliser regime on N2O emissions in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Jesko; Jones, Michael

2016-04-01

Agriculture can be significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, this is especially prevalent in Ireland where the agricultural sector accounts for a third of total emissions. The high emissions are linked to both the importance of agriculture in the Irish economy and the focus on dairy and beef production. In order to reduce emissions three main categories are explored: (1) reduction of methane emissions from cattle, (2) reduction of nitrous oxide emissions from fertilisation, and (3) fostering the carbon sequestration potential of soils. The presented research focuses on the latter two categories, especially changes in fertiliser amount and composition. Soil properties and climate conditions measured at the four experimental sites (two silage and two spring barley) were used to parameterise four biogeochemical models (DayCent, ECOSSE, DNDC 9.4, and DNDC 9.5). All sites had a range of different fertiliser regimes applied. This included changes in amount (0 to 500 kg N/ha on grassland and 0 to 200 kg N/ha on arable fields), fertiliser type (calcium ammonium nitrate and urea), and added inhibitors (the nitrification inhibitor DCD, and the urease inhibitor Agrotain). Overall, 20 different treatments were applied to the grassland sites, and 17 to the arable sites. Nitrous oxide emissions, measured in 2013 and 2014 at all sites using closed chambers, were made available to validate model results for these emissions. To assess model performance for the daily measurements, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was compared to the measured 95% confidence interval of the measured data (RMSE95). Bias was tested comparing the relative error (RE) the 95 % confidence interval of the relative error (RE95). Preliminary results show mixed model performance, depending on the model, site, and the fertiliser regime. However, with the exception of urea fertilisation and added inhibitors, all scenarios were reproduced by at least one model with no statistically significant total error (RMSE < RMSE95) or bias (RE< RE95). A general trend observed was that model performance declined with increased fertilisation rates. Overall, DayCent showed the best performance, however it does not provide the possibility to model the addition urease inhibitors. The results suggest that modelling changes in fertiliser regime on a large scale may require a multi-model approach to assure best performance. Ultimately, the research aims to develop a GIS based platform to apply such an approach on a regional scale.

Effect of climate-driven changes in species composition on regional emission capacities of biogenic compounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurgers, G.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.

2011-11-01

Regional or global modeling studies of dynamic vegetation often represent vegetation by large functional units (plant functional types (PFTs)). For simulation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) in these models, emission capacities, which give the emission under standardized conditions, are provided as an average value for a PFT. These emission capacities thus hide the known heterogeneity in emission characteristics that are not straightforwardly related to functional characteristics of plants. Here we study the effects of the aggregation of species-level information on emission characteristics at PFT level. The roles of temporal and spatial variability are assessed for Europe by comparing simulations that represent vegetation by dominant tree species on the one hand and by plant functional types on the other. We compare a number of time slices between the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago) and the present day to quantify the effects of dynamically changing vegetation on BVOC emissions. Spatial heterogeneity of emission factors is studied with present-day simulations. We show that isoprene and monoterpene emissions are of similar magnitude in Europe when the simulation represents dominant European tree species, which indicates that simulations applying typical global-scale emission capacities for PFTs tend to overestimate isoprene and underestimate monoterpene emissions. Moreover, both spatial and temporal variability affect emission capacities considerably, and by aggregating these to PFT level averages, one loses the information on local heterogeneity. Given the reactive nature of these compounds, accounting for spatial and temporal heterogeneity can be important for studies of their fate in the atmosphere.

Environmental assessment of biofuel chains based on ecosystem modelling, including land-use change effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabrielle, B.; Gagnaire, N.; Massad, R.; Prieur, V.; Python, Y.

2012-04-01

The potential greenhouse gas (GHG) savings resulting from the displacement of fossil energy sources by bioenergy mostly hinges on the uncertainty on the magnitude of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from arable soils occuring during feedstock production. These emissions are broadly related to fertilizer nitrogen input rates, but largely controlled by soil and climate factors which makes their estimation highly uncertain. Here, we set out to improve estimates of N2O emissions from bioenergy feedstocks by using ecosystem models and measurements and modeling of atmospheric N2O in the greater Paris (France) area. Ground fluxes were measured in two locations to assess the effect of soil type and management, crop type (including lignocellulosics such as triticale, switchgrass and miscanthus), and climate on N2O emission rates and dynamics. High-resolution maps of N2O emissions were generated over the Ile-de-France region (around Paris) with two ecosystem models using geographical databases on soils, weather data, land-use and crop management. The models were tested against ground flux measurements and the emission maps were fed into the atmospheric chemistry-transport model CHIMERE. The maps were tested by comparing the CHIMERE simulations with time series of N2O concentrations measured at various heights above the ground in two locations in 2007. The emissions of N2O, as integrated over the region, were used in a life-cycle assessment of representative biofuel pathways: bioethanol from wheat and sugar-beet (1st generation), and miscanthus (2nd generation chain); bio-diesel from oilseed rape. Effects related to direct and indirect land-use changes (in particular on soil carbon stocks) were also included in the assessment based on various land-use scenarios and literature references. The potential deployment of miscanthus was simulated by assuming it would be grown on the current sugar-beet growing area in Ile-de-France, or by converting land currently under permanent fallow. Compared to the standard methodology currently used in LCA, based on fixed emissions for N2O, the use of model-derived estimates leads to a 10 to 40% reduction in the overall life-cycle GHG emissions of biofuels. This emphasizes the importance of regional factors in the relationship between agricultural inputs and emissions (altogether with biomass yields) in the outcome of LCAs. When excluding indirect land-use change effects (iLUC), 1st generation pathways enabled GHG savings ranging from 50 to 73% compared to fossile-derived equivalents, while this figure reached 88% for 2nd generation bioethanol from miscanthus. Including iLUC reduced the savings to less than 5% for bio-diesel from rapeseed, 10 to 45% for 1st generation bioethanol and to 60% for miscanthus. These figures apply to the year 2007 and should be extended to a larger number of years, but the magnitude of N2O emissions was similar between 2007, 2008 and 2009 over the Ile de France region.

Symposium review: Uncertainties in enteric methane inventories, measurement techniques, and prediction models.

PubMed

Hristov, A N; Kebreab, E; Niu, M; Oh, J; Bannink, A; Bayat, A R; Boland, T B; Brito, A F; Casper, D P; Crompton, L A; Dijkstra, J; Eugène, M; Garnsworthy, P C; Haque, N; Hellwing, A L F; Huhtanen, P; Kreuzer, M; Kuhla, B; Lund, P; Madsen, J; Martin, C; Moate, P J; Muetzel, S; Muñoz, C; Peiren, N; Powell, J M; Reynolds, C K; Schwarm, A; Shingfield, K J; Storlien, T M; Weisbjerg, M R; Yáñez-Ruiz, D R; Yu, Z

2018-04-18

Ruminant production systems are important contributors to anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions, but there are large uncertainties in national and global livestock CH 4 inventories. Sources of uncertainty in enteric CH 4 emissions include animal inventories, feed dry matter intake (DMI), ingredient and chemical composition of the diets, and CH 4 emission factors. There is also significant uncertainty associated with enteric CH 4 measurements. The most widely used techniques are respiration chambers, the sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) tracer technique, and the automated head-chamber system (GreenFeed; C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, SD). All 3 methods have been successfully used in a large number of experiments with dairy or beef cattle in various environmental conditions, although studies that compare techniques have reported inconsistent results. Although different types of models have been developed to predict enteric CH 4 emissions, relatively simple empirical (statistical) models have been commonly used for inventory purposes because of their broad applicability and ease of use compared with more detailed empirical and process-based mechanistic models. However, extant empirical models used to predict enteric CH 4 emissions suffer from narrow spatial focus, limited observations, and limitations of the statistical technique used. Therefore, prediction models must be developed from robust data sets that can only be generated through collaboration of scientists across the world. To achieve high prediction accuracy, these data sets should encompass a wide range of diets and production systems within regions and globally. Overall, enteric CH 4 prediction models are based on various animal or feed characteristic inputs but are dominated by DMI in one form or another. As a result, accurate prediction of DMI is essential for accurate prediction of livestock CH 4 emissions. Analysis of a large data set of individual dairy cattle data showed that simplified enteric CH 4 prediction models based on DMI alone or DMI and limited feed- or animal-related inputs can predict average CH 4 emission with a similar accuracy to more complex empirical models. These simplified models can be reliably used for emission inventory purposes. The Authors. Published by FASS Inc. and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Low Emissions and Delay Optimization for an Isolated Signalized Intersection Based on Vehicular Trajectories

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

A traditional traffic signal control system is established based on vehicular delay, queue length, saturation and other indicators. However, due to the increasing severity of urban environmental pollution issues and the development of a resource-saving and environmentally friendly social philosophy, the development of low-carbon and energy-efficient urban transport is required. This paper first defines vehicular trajectories and the calculation of vehicular emissions based on VSP. Next, a regression analysis method is used to quantify the relationship between vehicular emissions and delay, and a traffic signal control model is established to reduce emissions and delay using the enumeration method combined with saturation constraints. Finally, one typical intersection of Changchun is selected to verify the model proposed in this paper; its performance efficiency is also compared using simulations in VISSIM. The results of this study show that the proposed model can significantly reduce vehicle delay and traffic emissions simultaneously. PMID:26720095

Low Emissions and Delay Optimization for an Isolated Signalized Intersection Based on Vehicular Trajectories.

PubMed

Lin, Ciyun; Gong, Bowen; Qu, Xin

2015-01-01

A traditional traffic signal control system is established based on vehicular delay, queue length, saturation and other indicators. However, due to the increasing severity of urban environmental pollution issues and the development of a resource-saving and environmentally friendly social philosophy, the development of low-carbon and energy-efficient urban transport is required. This paper first defines vehicular trajectories and the calculation of vehicular emissions based on VSP. Next, a regression analysis method is used to quantify the relationship between vehicular emissions and delay, and a traffic signal control model is established to reduce emissions and delay using the enumeration method combined with saturation constraints. Finally, one typical intersection of Changchun is selected to verify the model proposed in this paper; its performance efficiency is also compared using simulations in VISSIM. The results of this study show that the proposed model can significantly reduce vehicle delay and traffic emissions simultaneously.

Impacts of Canadian and global black carbon shipping emissions on Arctic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; von Salzen, K.

2017-12-01

Shipping activities have increased across the Arctic and are projected to continue to increase in the future. In this study we compare the climate impacts of Canadian and global shipping black carbon (BC) emissions on the Arctic using the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM4.1). The model simulations are performed with and without shipping emissions at T63 (128 x 64) spectral resolution. Results indicate that shipping activities enhance BC concentrations across the area close to the shipping emissions, which causes increased absorption of solar radiation (direct effect). An impact of shipping on temperatures is simulated across the entire Arctic, with maximum warming in fall and winter seasons. Although global mean temperature changes are very similar between the two simulations, increase in Canadian BC shipping emissions cause warmer Arctic land surface temperature in summer due to the direct radiative effects of aerosol.

Top-down NOX Emissions of European Cities Derived from Modelled and Spaceborne Tropospheric NO2 Columns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstraeten, W. W.; Boersma, K. F.; Douros, J.; Williams, J. E.; Eskes, H.; Delcloo, A. W.

2017-12-01

High nitrogen oxides (NOX = NO + NO2) concentrations near the surface impact humans and ecosystems badly and play a key role in tropospheric chemistry. NO2 is an important precursor of tropospheric ozone (O3) which in turn affects the production of the hydroxyl radical controlling the chemical lifetime of key atmospheric pollutants and reactive greenhouse gases. Combustion from industrial, traffic and household activities in large and densely populated urban areas result in high NOX emissions. Accurate mapping of these emissions is essential but hard to do since reported emissions factors may differ from real-time emissions in order of magnitude. Modelled NO2 levels and lifetimes also have large associated uncertainties and overestimation in the chemical lifetime which may mask missing NOX chemistry in current chemistry transport models (CTM's). The simultaneously estimation of both the NO2 lifetime and as well as the concentrations by applying the Exponentially Modified Gaussian (EMG) method on tropospheric NO2 columns lines densities should improve the surface NOX emission estimates. Here we evaluate if the EMG methodology applied on the tropospheric NO2 columns simulated by the LOTOS-EUROS (Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Ozone Simulation) CTM can reproduce the NOX emissions used as model input. First we process both the modelled tropospheric NO2 columns for the period April-September 2013 for 21 selected European urban areas under windy conditions (averaged vertical wind speeds between surface and 500 m from ECMWF > 2 m s-1) as well as the accompanying OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) data providing us with real-time observation-based estimates of midday NO2 columns. Then we compare the top-down derived surface NOX emissions with the 2011 MACC-III emission inventory, used in the CTM as input to simulate the NO2 columns. For cities where NOX emissions can be assumed as originating from one large source good agreement is found between the top-down derived NOX emissions from CTM and OMI with the MACC-III inventory. For cities where multiple sources of NOX are observed (e.g. Brussels, London), an adapted methodology is required. For some cities such as St-Petersburg and Moscow the top-down NOX estimates from 2013 OMI data are biased low compared to the MACC-III inventory which uses a 2011 NOX emissions update.

Energy Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Tight Oil Production in the Bakken Formation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, Adam R.; Yeskoo, Tim; McNally, Michael S.

The Bakken formation has contributed to the recent rapid increase in U.S. oil production, reaching a peak production of >1.2 × 106 barrels per day in early 2015. In this study, we estimate the energy intensity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 7271 Bakken wells drilled from 2006 to 2013. We model energy use and emissions using the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE) model, supplemented with an open-source drilling and fracturing model, GHGfrack. Overall well-to-refinery-gate (WTR) consumption of natural gas, diesel, and electricity represent 1.3%, 0.2%, and 0.005% of produced crude energy content, respectively. Fugitive emissions are modeledmore » for a “typical” Bakken well using previously published results of atmospheric measurements. Flaring is a key driver of emissions: wells that flared in 2013 had a mean flaring rate that was ≈500 standard cubic feet per barrel or ≈14% of the energy content of the produced crude oil. Resulting production-weighted mean GHG emissions in 2013 were 10.2 g of CO2 equivalent GHGs per megajoule (henceforth, gCO2eq/MJ) of crude. Between-well variability gives a 5–95% range of 2–28 gCO2eq/MJ. If flaring is completely controlled, Bakken crude compares favorably to conventional U.S. crude oil, with 2013 emissions of 3.5 gCO2eq/MJ for nonflaring wells, compared to the U.S. mean of ≈8 gCO2eq/MJ.« less

CFD Analysis of Emissions for a Candidate N+3 Combustor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ajmani, Kumud

2015-01-01

An effort was undertaken to analyze the performance of a model Lean-Direct Injection (LDI) combustor designed to meet emissions and performance goals for NASA's N+3 program. Computational predictions of Emissions Index (EINOx) and combustor exit temperature were obtained for operation at typical power conditions expected of a small-core, high pressure-ratio (greater than 50), high T3 inlet temperature (greater than 950K) N+3 combustor. Reacting-flow computations were performed with the National Combustion Code (NCC) for a model N+3 LDI combustor, which consisted of a nine-element LDI flame-tube derived from a previous generation (N+2) thirteen-element LDI design. A consistent approach to mesh-optimization, spray-modeling and kinetics-modeling was used, in order to leverage the lessons learned from previous N+2 flame-tube analysis with the NCC. The NCC predictions for the current, non-optimized N+3 combustor operating indicated a 74% increase in NOx emissions as compared to that of the emissions-optimized, parent N+2 LDI combustor.

FUV Emission from AGB Stars: Modeling Accretion Activity Associated with a Binary Companion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevens, Alyx Catherine; Sahai, Raghvendra

2012-01-01

It is widely believed that the late stages of evolution for Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars are influenced by the presence of binary companions. Unfortunately, there is a lack of direct observational evidence of binarity. However, more recently, strong indirect evidence comes from the discovery of UV emission in a subsample of these objects (fuvAGB stars). AGB stars are comparatively cool objects (< or =3000 K), thus their fluxes falls off drastically for wavelengths 3000 Angstroms and shorter. Therefore, ultraviolet observations offer an important, new technique for detecting the binary companions and/or associated accretion activity. We develop new models of UV emission from fuvAGB stars constrained by GALEX photometry and spectroscopy of these objects. We compare the GALEX UV grism spectra of the AGB M7 star EY Hya to predictions using the spectral synthesis code Cloudy, specifically investigating the ultraviolet wavelength range (1344-2831 Angstroms). We investigate models composed of contributions from a photoionized "hot spot" due to accretion activity around the companion, and "chromospheric" emission from collisionally ionized plasma, to fit the UV observations.

Application of modern radiative transfer tools to model laboratory quartz emissivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitman, Karly M.; Wolff, Michael J.; Clayton, Geoffrey C.

2005-08-01

Planetary remote sensing of regolith surfaces requires use of theoretical models for interpretation of constituent grain physical properties. In this work, we review and critically evaluate past efforts to strengthen numerical radiative transfer (RT) models with comparison to a trusted set of nadir incidence laboratory quartz emissivity spectra. By first establishing a baseline statistical metric to rate successful model-laboratory emissivity spectral fits, we assess the efficacy of hybrid computational solutions (Mie theory + numerically exact RT algorithm) to calculate theoretical emissivity values for micron-sized α-quartz particles in the thermal infrared (2000-200 cm-1) wave number range. We show that Mie theory, a widely used but poor approximation to irregular grain shape, fails to produce the single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter needed to arrive at the desired laboratory emissivity values. Through simple numerical experiments, we show that corrections to single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter values generated via Mie theory become more necessary with increasing grain size. We directly compare the performance of diffraction subtraction and static structure factor corrections to the single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, and emissivity for dense packing of grains. Through these sensitivity studies, we provide evidence that, assuming RT methods work well given sufficiently well-quantified inputs, assumptions about the scatterer itself constitute the most crucial aspect of modeling emissivity values.

Inference of emission rates from multiple sources using Bayesian probability theory.

PubMed

Yee, Eugene; Flesch, Thomas K

2010-03-01

The determination of atmospheric emission rates from multiple sources using inversion (regularized least-squares or best-fit technique) is known to be very susceptible to measurement and model errors in the problem, rendering the solution unusable. In this paper, a new perspective is offered for this problem: namely, it is argued that the problem should be addressed as one of inference rather than inversion. Towards this objective, Bayesian probability theory is used to estimate the emission rates from multiple sources. The posterior probability distribution for the emission rates is derived, accounting fully for the measurement errors in the concentration data and the model errors in the dispersion model used to interpret the data. The Bayesian inferential methodology for emission rate recovery is validated against real dispersion data, obtained from a field experiment involving various source-sensor geometries (scenarios) consisting of four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors. The recovery of discrete emission rates from three different scenarios obtained using Bayesian inference and singular value decomposition inversion are compared and contrasted.

Flux measurements of volatile organic compounds from an urban landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco, E.; Lamb, B.; Pressley, S.; Allwine, E.; Westberg, H.; Jobson, B. T.; Alexander, M.; Prazeller, P.; Molina, L.; Molina, M.

2005-10-01

Direct measurements of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions that include all sources in urban areas are a missing requirement to evaluate emission inventories and constrain current photochemical modelling practices. Here we demonstrate the use of micrometeorological techniques coupled with fast-response sensors to measure urban VOC fluxes from a neighbourhood of Mexico City, where the spatial variability of surface cover and roughness is high. Fluxes of olefins, methanol, acetone, toluene and C2-benzenes were measured and compared with the local gridded emissions inventory. VOC fluxes exhibited a clear diurnal pattern with a strong relationship to vehicular traffic. Recent photochemical modelling results suggest that VOC emissions are significantly underestimated in Mexico City, but for the olefin class, toluene, C2-benzenes, and acetone fluxes measured in this work, the results show general agreement with the gridded emissions inventory. While these measurements do not address the full suite of VOC emissions, the comparison with the inventory suggests that other explanations may be needed to explain the photochemical modelling results.

Role of regional wetland emissions in atmospheric methane variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNorton, J.; Gloor, E.; Wilson, C.; Hayman, G. D.; Gedney, N.; Comyn-Platt, E.; Marthews, T.; Parker, R. J.; Boesch, H.; Chipperfield, M. P.

2016-11-01

Atmospheric methane (CH4) accounts for 20% of the total direct anthropogenic radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases. Surface observations show a pause (1999-2006) followed by a resumption in CH4 growth, which remain largely unexplained. Using a land surface model, we estimate wetland CH4 emissions from 1993 to 2014 and study the regional contributions to changes in atmospheric CH4. Atmospheric model simulations using these emissions, together with other sources, compare well with surface and satellite CH4 data. Modeled global wetland emissions vary by ±3%/yr (σ = 4.8 Tg), mainly due to precipitation-induced changes in wetland area, but the integrated effect makes only a small contribution to the pause in CH4 growth from 1999 to 2006. Increasing temperature, which increases wetland area, drives a long-term trend in wetland CH4 emissions of +0.2%/yr (1999 to 2014). The increased growth post-2006 was partly caused by increased wetland emissions (+3%), mainly from Tropical Asia, Southern Africa, and Australia.

Impact of particle emissions of new laser printers on modeled office room

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koivisto, Antti J.; Hussein, Tareq; Niemelä, Raimo; Tuomi, Timo; Hämeri, Kaarle

2010-06-01

In this study, we present how an indoor aerosol model can be used to characterize particle emitter and predict influence of the source on indoor air quality. Particle size-resolved emission rates were quantified and the source's influence on indoor air quality was estimated by using office model simulations. We measured particle emissions from three modern laser printers in a flow-through chamber. Measured parameters were used as input parameters for an indoor aerosol model, which we then used to quantify the particle emission rates. The same indoor aerosol model was used to simulate the effect of the particle emission source inside an office model. The office model consists of a mechanically ventilated empty room and the particle source. The aerosol from the ventilation air was a filtered urban background aerosol. The effect of the ventilation rate was studied using three different ventilation ratios 1, 2 and 3 h -1. According to the model, peak emission rates of the printers exceeded 7.0 × 10 8 s -1 (2.5 × 10 12 h -1), and emitted mainly ultrafine particles (diameter less than 100 nm). The office model simulation results indicate that a print job increases ultrafine particle concentration to a maximum of 2.6 × 10 5 cm -3. Printer-emitted particles increased 6-h averaged particle concentration over eleven times compared to the background particle concentration.

Criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from CNG transit buses equipped with three-way catalysts compared to lean-burn engines and oxidation catalyst technologies.

PubMed

Yoon, Seungju; Collins, John; Thiruvengadam, Arvind; Gautam, Mridul; Herner, Jorn; Ayala, Alberto

2013-08-01

Engine and exhaust control technologies applied to compressed natural gas (CNG) transit buses have advanced from lean-burn, to lean-burn with oxidation catalyst (OxC), to stoichiometric combustion with three-way catalyst (TWC). With this technology advancement, regulated gaseous and particulate matter emissions have been significantly reduced. Two CNG transit buses equipped with stoichiometric combustion engines and TWCs were tested on a chassis dynamometer, and their emissions were measured. Emissions from the stoichiometric engines with TWCs were then compared to the emissions from lean-burn CNG transit buses tested in previous studies. Stoichiometric combustion with TWC was effective in reducing emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)), particulate matter (PM), and nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) by 87% to 98% depending on pollutants and test cycles, compared to lean combustion. The high removal efficiencies exceeded the emission reduction required from the certification standards, especially for NO(x) and PM. While the certification standards require 95% and 90% reductions for NO(x) and PM, respectively, from the engine model years 1998-2003 to the engine model year 2007, the measured NO(x) and PM emissions show 96% and 95% reductions, respectively, from the lean-burn engines to the stoichiometric engines with TWC over the transient Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS) cycle. One drawback of stoichiometric combustion with TWC is that this technology produces higher carbon monoxide (CO) emissions than lean combustion. In regard to controlling CO emissions, lean combustion with OxC is more effective than stoichiometric combustion. Stoichiometric combustion with TWC produced higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) than lean combustion during the UDDS cycle, but lower GHG emissions during the steady-state cruise cycle. Stoichiometric combustion with three-way catalyst is currently the best emission control technology available for compressed natural gas (CNG) transit buses to meet the stringent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2010 heavy-duty engine NO(x) emissions standard. For existing lean-burn CNG transit buses in the fleet, oxidation catalyst would be the most effective retrofit technology for the control of NMHC and CO emissions.

Estimating the agricultural fertilizer NH3 emission in China based on the bi-directional CMAQ model and an agro-ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) plays an important role in fine particle formation. Accurate estimates of ammonia can reduce uncertainties in air quality modeling. China is one of the largest countries emitting ammonia with the majority of NH3 emissions coming from the agricultural practices, such as fertilizer applications and animal operations. The current ammonia emission estimates in China are mainly based on pre-defined emission factors. Thus, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating NH3 emissions, especially in time and space distribution. For example, fertilizer applications vary in the date of application and amount by geographical regions and crop types. In this study, the NH3 emission from the agricultural fertilizer use in China of 2011 was estimated online by an agricultural fertilizer modeling system coupling a regional air-quality model and an agro-ecosystem model, which contains three main components 1) the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, 2) the meso-scale meteorology Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and 3) the CMAQ air quality model with bi-directional ammonia fluxes. The EPIC output information about daily fertilizer application and soil characteristics would be the input of the CMAQ model. In order to run EPIC model, much Chinese local information is collected and processed. For example, Crop land data are computed from the MODIS land use data at 500-m resolution and crop categories at Chinese county level; the fertilizer use rate for different fertilizer types, crops and provinces are obtained from Chinese statistic materials. The system takes into consideration many influencing factors on agriculture ammonia emission, including weather, the fertilizer application method, timing, amount, and rate for specific pastures and crops. The simulated fertilizer data is compared with the NH3 emissions and fertilizer application data from other sources. The results of CMAQ modeling are also discussed and analyzed with field measurements. The estimated agricultural fertilizer NH3 emission in this study is about 3Tg in 2011. The regions with the highest emission rates are located in the North China Plain. Monthly, the peak ammonia emissions occur in April to July.

Modeling electron emission and surface effects from diamond cathodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrov, D. A.; Smithe, D.; Cary, J. R.; Ben-Zvi, I.; Rao, T.; Smedley, J.; Wang, E.

2015-02-01

We developed modeling capabilities, within the Vorpal particle-in-cell code, for three-dimensional simulations of surface effects and electron emission from semiconductor photocathodes. They include calculation of emission probabilities using general, piece-wise continuous, space-time dependent surface potentials, effective mass, and band bending field effects. We applied these models, in combination with previously implemented capabilities for modeling charge generation and transport in diamond, to investigate the emission dependence on applied electric field in the range from approximately 2 MV/m to 17 MV/m along the [100] direction. The simulation results were compared to experimental data. For the considered parameter regime, conservation of transverse electron momentum (in the plane of the emission surface) allows direct emission from only two (parallel to [100]) of the six equivalent lowest conduction band valleys. When the electron affinity χ is the only parameter varied in the simulations, the value χ = 0.31 eV leads to overall qualitative agreement with the probability of emission deduced from experiments. Including band bending in the simulations improves the agreement with the experimental data, particularly at low applied fields, but not significantly. Using surface potentials with different profiles further allows us to investigate the emission as a function of potential barrier height, width, and vacuum level position. However, adding surface patches with different levels of hydrogenation, modeled with position-dependent electron affinity, leads to the closest agreement with the experimental data.

A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shindell, D T; Chin, M; Dentener, F

2008-03-13

We examine the response of Arctic gas and aerosol concentrations to perturbations in pollutant emissions from Europe, East and South Asia, and North America using results from a coordinated model intercomparison. These sensitivities to regional emissions (mixing ratio change per unit emission) vary widely across models and species. Intermodel differences are systematic, however, so that the relative importance of different regions is robust. North America contributes the most to Arctic ozone pollution. For aerosols and CO, European emissions dominate at the Arctic surface but East Asian emissions become progressively more important with altitude, and are dominant in the upper troposphere.more » Sensitivities show strong seasonality: surface sensitivities typically maximize during boreal winter for European and during spring for East Asian and North American emissions. Mid-tropospheric sensitivities, however, nearly always maximize during spring or summer for all regions. Deposition of black carbon (BC) onto Greenland is most sensitive to North American emissions. North America and Europe each contribute {approx}40% of total BC deposition to Greenland, with {approx}20% from East Asia. Elsewhere in the Arctic, both sensitivity and total BC deposition are dominated by European emissions. Model diversity for aerosols is especially large, resulting primarily from differences in aerosol physical and chemical processing (including removal). Comparison of modeled aerosol concentrations with observations indicates problems in the models, and perhaps, interpretation of the measurements. For gas phase pollutants such as CO and O{sub 3}, which are relatively well-simulated, the processes contributing most to uncertainties depend on the source region and altitude examined. Uncertainties in the Arctic surface CO response to emissions perturbations are dominated by emissions for East Asian sources, while uncertainties in transport, emissions, and oxidation are comparable for European and North American sources. At higher levels, model-to-model variations in transport and oxidation are most important. Differences in photochemistry appear to play the largest role in the intermodel variations in Arctic ozone sensitivity, though transport also contributes substantially in the mid-troposphere.« less

High Time Resolution Measurements of VOCs from Vehicle Cold Starts: The Air Toxic Cold Start Pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jobson, B. T.; Huangfu, Y.; Vanderschelden, G. S.

2017-12-01

Pollutants emitted during motor vehicle cold starts, especially in winter in some climates, is a significant source of winter time air pollution. While data exist for CO, NO, and total hydrocarbon emissions from federal testing procedures for vehicle emission certification, little is known about the emission rates of individual volatile organic compounds, in particular the air toxics benzene, formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde. Little is known about the VOC speciation and temperature dependence for cold starts. The US EPA vehicle emission model MOVES assumes that cold start emissions have the same speciation profile as running emissions. We examined this assumption by measuring cold start exhaust composition for 4 vehicles fueled with E10 gasoline over a temperature range of -4°C to 10°C in winter of 2015. The extra cold start emissions were determined by comparison with emissions during engine idling. In addition to CO and NOx measurements a proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer was used to measure formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, benzene, toluene, and C2-alkylbenzenes at high time resolution to compare with the cold start emission speciation profiles used in the EPA MOVES2014 model. The results show that after the vehicle was started, CO mixing ratios can reach a few percent of the exhaust and then drop to several ppmv within 2 minutes of idling, while NOx showed different temporal behaviors among the four vehicles. VOCs displayed elevated levels during cold start and the peak mixing ratios can be two orders higher than idling phase levels. Molar emission ratios relative to toluene were used to compare with the emission ratio used in MOVES2014 and we found the formaldehyde-to-toluene emission ratio was about 0.19, which is 5 times higher than the emission ratio used in MOVES2014 and the acetaldehyde-to-toluene emission ratios were 0.86-0.89, which is 8 times higher than the ones in MOVES2014. The C2-alkylbenzene-to-toluene ratio agreed well with moves. Our results suggest that for the air toxics acetaldehyde and formaldehyde, wintertime cold temperature vehicle start emissions are likely significantly underestimated in the MOVES 2014 model.

Estimates of the changes in tropospheric chemistry which result from human activity and their dependence on NO(x) emissions and model resolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanakidou, Maria; Crutzen, Paul J.; Zimmermann, Peter H.

1994-01-01

As a consequence of the non-linear behavior of the chemistry of the atmosphere and because of the short lifetime of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), two-dimensional models do not give an adequate description of the production and destruction rates of NO(x) and their effects on the distributions of the concentration of ozone and hydroxyl radical. In this study, we use a three-dimensional model to evaluate the contribution of increasing NO(x) emissions from industrial activity and biomass burning to changes in the chemical composition of the troposphere. By comparing results obtained from longitudinally-uniform and longitudinally-varying emissions of NO(x), we demonstrate that the geographical representation of the NO(x) emissions is crucial in simulating tropospheric chemistry.

Performance limitations of temperature-emissivity separation techniques in long-wave infrared hyperspectral imaging applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pieper, Michael; Manolakis, Dimitris; Truslow, Eric; Cooley, Thomas; Brueggeman, Michael; Jacobson, John; Weisner, Andrew

2017-08-01

Accurate estimation or retrieval of surface emissivity from long-wave infrared or thermal infrared (TIR) hyperspectral imaging data acquired by airborne or spaceborne sensors is necessary for many scientific and defense applications. This process consists of two interwoven steps: atmospheric compensation and temperature-emissivity separation (TES). The most widely used TES algorithms for hyperspectral imaging data assume that the emissivity spectra for solids are smooth compared to the atmospheric transmission function. We develop a model to explain and evaluate the performance of TES algorithms using a smoothing approach. Based on this model, we identify three sources of error: the smoothing error of the emissivity spectrum, the emissivity error from using the incorrect temperature, and the errors caused by sensor noise. For each TES smoothing technique, we analyze the bias and variability of the temperature errors, which translate to emissivity errors. The performance model explains how the errors interact to generate temperature errors. Since we assume exact knowledge of the atmosphere, the presented results provide an upper bound on the performance of TES algorithms based on the smoothness assumption.

Effects of Changing Emissions on Ozone and Particulates in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, G. J.; McKeen, S.; Trainer, M.; Ryerson, T.; Holloway, J.; Brock, C.; Middlebrook, A.; Wollny, A.; Matthew, B.; Williams, E.; Lerner, B.; Fortin, T.; Sueper, D.; Parrish, D.; Fehsenfeld, F.; Peckham, S.; Grell, G.; Peltier, R.; Weber, R.; Quinn, P.; Bates, T.

2004-12-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from electric power generation have decreased in recent years due to changes in burner technology and fuels used. Mobile NOx emissions assessments are less certain, since they must account for increases in vehicle miles traveled, changes in the proportion of diesel and gasoline vehicles, and more stringent controls on engines and fuels. The impact of these complicated emission changes on a particular region's air quality must be diagnosed by a combination of observation and model simulation. The New England Air Quality Study - Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2004 (NEAQS-ITCT 2004) program provides an opportunity to test the effects of changes in emissions of NOx and other precursors on air quality in the northeastern United States. An array of ground, marine, and airborne observation platforms deployed during the study offer checks on emission inventories and air quality model simulations, like those of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Retrospective WRF-Chem runs are carried out with two EPA inventories, one compiled for base year 1999 and an update for 2004 incorporating projected and known changes in emissions during the past 5 years. Differences in model predictions of ozone, particulates, and other tracers using the two inventories are investigated. The inventories themselves and the model simulations are compared with the extensive observations available during NEAQS-ITCT 2004. Preliminary insights regarding the sensitivity of the model to NOx emission changes are discussed.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

2014-03-01

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

The Use of Satellite-Measured Aerosol Optical Depth to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions Source Strength in a Global Model GOCART

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrenko, Mariya; Kahn, Ralph; Chin, Mian; Soja, Amber; Kuesera, Tom; harshvardhan, E. M.

2012-01-01

Small particles in the atmosphere, called "atmospheric aerosol" have a direct effect on Earth climate through scattering and absorbing sunlight, and also an indirect effect by changing the properties of clouds, as they interact with solar radiation as well. Aerosol typically stays in the atmosphere for several days, and can be transported long distances, affecting air quality, visibility, and human health not only near the source, but also far downwind. Smoke from vegetation fires is one of the main sources of atmospheric aerosol; other sources include anthropogenic pollution, dust, and sea salt. Chemistry transport models (CTMs) are among the major tools for studying the atmospheric and climate effects of aerosol. Due to the considerable variation of aerosol concentrations and properties on many temporal and spatial scales, and the complexity of the processes involved, the uncertainties in aerosol effects on climate are large, as is featured in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Reducing this uncertainty in the models is very important both for predicting future climate scenarios and for regional air quality forecasting and mitigation. During vegetation fires, also called biomass burning (BB) events, complex mixture of gases and particles is emitted. The amount of BB emissions is usually estimated taking into account the intensity and size of the fire and the properties of burning vegetation. These estimates are input into CTMs to simulate BB aerosol. Unfortunately, due to large variability of fire and vegetation properties, the quantity of BB emissions is very difficult to estimate and BB emission inventories provide numbers that can differ by up to the order of magnitude in some regions. Larger uncertainties in data input make uncertainties in model output larger as well. A powerful way to narrow the range of possible model estimates is to compare model output to observations. We use satellite observations of aerosol properties, specifically aerosol optical depth, which is directly proportional to the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere, and compare it to the model output. Assuming the model represents aerosol transport and particle properties correctly, the amount of BB emissions determines the simulated aerosol optical depth. In this study, we explore the regional performance of 13 commonly used emission estimates. These are each input to global Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We then evaluate how well each emission estimate reproduces the smoke aerosol optical depth measured by the MODIS instrument. We compared GOCART-simulate aerosol optical depth with that measured from the satellite for 124 fire cases around the world during 2006 and 2007. We summarize the regional performance of each emission inventory and discuss reasons for their differences by considering the assumptions made during their development. We also show that because stronger wind disperses smoke plumes more readily, in cases with stronger wind, a larger increase in emission amount is needed to increase aerosol optical depth. In quiet, low-wind-speed environments, BB emissions produce a more significant increase in aerosol optical depth, other things being equal. Using the region-specific, quantitative relationships derived in our paper, together with the wind speed obtained from another source for a given fire case, we can constrain the amount of emission required in the model to reproduce the observations. The results of this paper are useful to the developers of BB emission inventories, as they show the strengths and weaknesses of individual emission inventories in different regions of the globe, and also for modelers who use these inventories and wish to improve their model results.

LandscapeDNDC used to model nitrous oxide emissions from soils under an oak forest in southern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cade, Shirley; Clemitshaw, Kevin; Lowry, David; Yamulki, Sirwan; Casella, Eric; Molina, Saul; Haas, Edwin; Kiese, Ralf

2013-04-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas, having a global warming potential of approximately 300 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2), and plays a significant role in depleting stratospheric ozone. Its principal source is microbial activity in soils and waters. Measured values of N2O emissions from soils show high temporal dynamics and a large range as a result of inter-related physico-chemical factors affecting the microbial processes, thus making predictions difficult. Emissions often occur in pulses following re-wetting, frost-thaw or management events such as N-fertilization, which further complicates predictions. Process-based models have been developed to help understand this emission variability and as potential tools for IPCC Tier 3 reporting on national emission inventories. Forests are promoted as sinks for CO2 and can be used as renewable sources of energy or longer term CO2 storage if timber is used in products such as in construction and furniture, provided appropriate replanting takes place. It is important that the effect of any changes in forest management and land use as a result of a desire to reduce CO2 emissions does not increase N2O emissions from forest soils, which are still poorly understood, compared to agricultural soils. LandscapeDNDC (Haas et al 2012) has been developed as a process-oriented model, based on the biogeochemical model, DNDC (Li et al, 1992), in order to simulate biosphere-atmosphere-hydrosphere exchanges at site and regional scales. It can model the carbon and nitrogen turnover and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of forest, agricultural and grassland ecosystems, and allows modelling of impacts of regional land use change over time. This study uses data (including forest growth, GHG emissions and soil moisture) from an oak forest, known as the Straits Enclosure, at Alice Holt in Hampshire, where extensive measurements have been made by Forest Research since 1995. It involves validation of the site scale model and internal parameters of LandscapeDNDC for use with an oak forest in SE England and as a result facilitates the broadening of its application. Modelled N2O soil emissions are compared with measurements from soil chambers in the forest. HAAS, E., KLATT, S., FRÖHLICH, A., KRAFT, P., WERNER, C., KIESE, R., GROTE, R., BREUER, L. and BUTTERBACH-BAHL, K., 2012. LandscapeDNDC: a process model for simulation of biosphere-atmosphere-hydrosphere exchange processes at site and regional scale. Landscape Ecology, , pp. 1-22. LI, C., FROLKING, S. and FROLKING, T.A., 1992. A model of nitrous oxide evolution from soil driven by rainfall events: 1. Model structure and sensitivity. J.Geophys.Res, 97(D9), pp. 9759-9776.

Inverse Modeling of Texas NOx Emissions Using Space-Based and Ground-Based NO2 Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Wei; Cohan, D.; Lamsal, L. N.; Xiao, X.; Zhou, W.

2013-01-01

Inverse modeling of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions using satellite-based NO2 observations has become more prevalent in recent years, but has rarely been applied to regulatory modeling at regional scales. In this study, OMI satellite observations of NO2 column densities are used to conduct inverse modeling of NOx emission inventories for two Texas State Implementation Plan (SIP) modeling episodes. Addition of lightning, aircraft, and soil NOx emissions to the regulatory inventory narrowed but did not close the gap between modeled and satellite observed NO2 over rural regions. Satellitebased top-down emission inventories are created with the regional Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) using two techniques: the direct scaling method and discrete Kalman filter (DKF) with Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) sensitivity analysis. The simulations with satellite-inverted inventories are compared to the modeling results using the a priori inventory as well as an inventory created by a ground-level NO2 based DKF inversion. The DKF inversions yield conflicting results: the satellite based inversion scales up the a priori NOx emissions in most regions by factors of 1.02 to 1.84, leading to 3-55% increase in modeled NO2 column densities and 1-7 ppb increase in ground 8 h ozone concentrations, while the ground-based inversion indicates the a priori NOx emissions should be scaled by factors of 0.34 to 0.57 in each region. However, none of the inversions improve the model performance in simulating aircraft-observed NO2 or ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations.

Inverse modeling of Texas NOx emissions using space-based and ground-based NO2 observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, W.; Cohan, D. S.; Lamsal, L. N.; Xiao, X.; Zhou, W.

2013-11-01

Inverse modeling of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions using satellite-based NO2 observations has become more prevalent in recent years, but has rarely been applied to regulatory modeling at regional scales. In this study, OMI satellite observations of NO2 column densities are used to conduct inverse modeling of NOx emission inventories for two Texas State Implementation Plan (SIP) modeling episodes. Addition of lightning, aircraft, and soil NOx emissions to the regulatory inventory narrowed but did not close the gap between modeled and satellite-observed NO2 over rural regions. Satellite-based top-down emission inventories are created with the regional Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) using two techniques: the direct scaling method and discrete Kalman filter (DKF) with decoupled direct method (DDM) sensitivity analysis. The simulations with satellite-inverted inventories are compared to the modeling results using the a priori inventory as well as an inventory created by a ground-level NO2-based DKF inversion. The DKF inversions yield conflicting results: the satellite-based inversion scales up the a priori NOx emissions in most regions by factors of 1.02 to 1.84, leading to 3-55% increase in modeled NO2 column densities and 1-7 ppb increase in ground 8 h ozone concentrations, while the ground-based inversion indicates the a priori NOx emissions should be scaled by factors of 0.34 to 0.57 in each region. However, none of the inversions improve the model performance in simulating aircraft-observed NO2 or ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations.

Inverse modeling of Texas NOx emissions using space-based and ground-based NO2 observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, W.; Cohan, D.; Lamsal, L. N.; Xiao, X.; Zhou, W.

2013-07-01

Inverse modeling of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions using satellite-based NO2 observations has become more prevalent in recent years, but has rarely been applied to regulatory modeling at regional scales. In this study, OMI satellite observations of NO2 column densities are used to conduct inverse modeling of NOx emission inventories for two Texas State Implementation Plan (SIP) modeling episodes. Addition of lightning, aircraft, and soil NOx emissions to the regulatory inventory narrowed but did not close the gap between modeled and satellite observed NO2 over rural regions. Satellite-based top-down emission inventories are created with the regional Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) using two techniques: the direct scaling method and discrete Kalman filter (DKF) with Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) sensitivity analysis. The simulations with satellite-inverted inventories are compared to the modeling results using the a priori inventory as well as an inventory created by a ground-level NO2 based DKF inversion. The DKF inversions yield conflicting results: the satellite-based inversion scales up the a priori NOx emissions in most regions by factors of 1.02 to 1.84, leading to 3-55% increase in modeled NO2 column densities and 1-7 ppb increase in ground 8 h ozone concentrations, while the ground-based inversion indicates the a priori NOx emissions should be scaled by factors of 0.34 to 0.57 in each region. However, none of the inversions improve the model performance in simulating aircraft-observed NO2 or ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations.

Predicting gaseous emissions from small-scale combustion of agricultural biomass fuels.

PubMed

Fournel, S; Marcos, B; Godbout, S; Heitz, M

2015-03-01

A prediction model of gaseous emissions (CO, CO2, NOx, SO2 and HCl) from small-scale combustion of agricultural biomass fuels was developed in order to rapidly assess their potential to be burned in accordance to current environmental threshold values. The model was established based on calculation of thermodynamic equilibrium of reactive multicomponent systems using Gibbs free energy minimization. Since this method has been widely used to estimate the composition of the syngas from wood gasification, the model was first validated by comparing its prediction results with those of similar models from the literature. The model was then used to evaluate the main gas emissions from the combustion of four dedicated energy crops (short-rotation willow, reed canary grass, switchgrass and miscanthus) previously burned in a 29-kW boiler. The prediction values revealed good agreement with the experimental results. The model was particularly effective in estimating the influence of harvest season on SO2 emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

PubMed Central

Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

2012-01-01

This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

PubMed

Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

2012-01-01

This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

Cavity-mode selection in spontaneous emission from oriented molecules in a microparticle.

PubMed

Arnold, S; Holler, S; Goddard, N L; Griffel, G

1997-10-01

We observe preferential cavity-mode selection in spontaneous emission by oriented molecules at the surface of a microparticle. Polarization-analyzed images of a levitated microdroplet containing surface active molecules reveal a well-defined system in terms of molecular position and orientation. The measured fluorescence spectrum is compared with that of a semiclassical emission-rate-enhancement model that treats the coupling between an excited state and Mie resonances as an oscillating dipole interacting with its self-scattered field. By comparing results obtained with this theory with the relative strengths of TE to TM modes measured in the emission spectrum, we show that one can elucidate the heterogeneity of a particle from this resonant structure and determine the orientation of the emission moments relative to the phase boundary.

Analysis of the performance, emission and combustion characteristics of a turbocharged diesel engine fuelled with Jatropha curcas biodiesel-diesel blends using kernel-based extreme learning machine.

PubMed

Silitonga, Arridina Susan; Hassan, Masjuki Haji; Ong, Hwai Chyuan; Kusumo, Fitranto

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance, emission and combustion characteristics of a four-cylinder common-rail turbocharged diesel engine fuelled with Jatropha curcas biodiesel-diesel blends. A kernel-based extreme learning machine (KELM) model is developed in this study using MATLAB software in order to predict the performance, combustion and emission characteristics of the engine. To acquire the data for training and testing the KELM model, the engine speed was selected as the input parameter, whereas the performance, exhaust emissions and combustion characteristics were chosen as the output parameters of the KELM model. The performance, emissions and combustion characteristics predicted by the KELM model were validated by comparing the predicted data with the experimental data. The results show that the coefficient of determination of the parameters is within a range of 0.9805-0.9991 for both the KELM model and the experimental data. The mean absolute percentage error is within a range of 0.1259-2.3838. This study shows that KELM modelling is a useful technique in biodiesel production since it facilitates scientists and researchers to predict the performance, exhaust emissions and combustion characteristics of internal combustion engines with high accuracy.

A MODEL FOR TYPE 2 CORONAL LINE FOREST (CLiF) AGNs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glidden, Ana; Rose, Marvin; Elvis, Martin

2016-06-10

We present a model for the classification of Coronal Line Forest Active Galactic Nuclei (CLiF AGNs). CLiF AGNs are of special interest due to their remarkably large number of emission lines, especially forbidden high-ionization lines (FHILs). Rose et al. suggest that their emission is dominated by reflection from the inner wall of the obscuring region rather than direct emission from the accretion disk. This makes CLiF AGNs laboratories to test AGN-torus models. Modeling an AGN as an accreting supermassive black hole surrounded by a cylinder of dust and gas, we show a relationship between the viewing angle and the revealedmore » area of the inner wall. From the revealed area, we can determine the amount of FHIL emission at various angles. We calculate the strength of [Fe vii] λ 6087 emission for a number of intermediate angles (30°, 40°, and 50°) and compare the results with the luminosity of the observed emission line from six known CLiF AGNs. We find that there is good agreement between our model and the observational results. The model also enables us to determine the relationship between the type 2:type 1 AGN fraction vs the ratio of torus height to radius, h / r .« less

Impact of shipping emissions on ozone levels over Europe: assessing the relative importance of the Standard Nomenclature for Air Pollution (SNAP) categories.

PubMed

Tagaris, Efthimios; Stergiou, Ioannis; Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P

2017-06-01

The impact of shipping emissions on ozone mixing ratio over Europe is assessed for July 2006 using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system and the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research anthropogenic emission inventory. Results suggest that ship-induced ozone contribution to the total surface ozone exceeds 5% over the sea and near the coastline, while an increase up to 5% is simulated over a large portion of the European land. The largest impact (i.e., an increase up to 30%) is simulated over the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, shipping emissions are simulated to increase NO 2 mixing ratio more than 90%, locally, and to modify the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere through hydroxyl radical formation (increase by 20-60% over the sea along the European coasts and near the coastal zone). Therefore, emissions from ships may counteract the benefits derived from the anthropogenic emissions reduction strategies over the continent. Simulations suggest regions where shipping emissions have a major impact on ozone mixing ratio compared to individual anthropogenic emission sector categories. Shipping emissions are estimated to play an important role on ozone levels compared to road transport sector near the coastal zone. The impact of shipping emissions on ozone formation is also profound over a great part of the European land compared to the rest of anthropogenic emission categories.

Parse, simulation, and prediction of NOx emission across the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, H.; Michalski, G. M.; Spak, S.

2017-12-01

Accurately constraining N emissions in space and time has been a challenge for atmospheric scientists. It has been suggested that 15N isotopes may be a way of tracking N emission sources across various spatial and temporal scales. However, the complexity of multiple N sources that can quickly change in intensity has made this a difficult problem. We have used a SMOKE emission model to parse NOx emission across the Midwestern United States for a one-year simulation. An isotope mass balance methods was used to assign 15N values to road, non-road, point, and area sources. The SMOKE emissions and isotope mass balance were then combined to predict the 15N of NOx emissions (Figure 1). This ^15N of NOx emissions model was then incorporated into CMAQ to assess the role of transport and chemistry would impact the 15N value of NOx due to mixing and removal processes. The predicted 15N value of NOx was compared to those in recent measurements of NOx and atmospheric nitrate.

SABER Observations of the OH Meinel Airglow Variability Near the Mesopause

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, Daniel R.; Smith, Anne K.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2005-01-01

The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, one of four on board the TIMED satellite, observes the OH Meinel emission at 2.0 m that peaks near the mesopause. The emission results from reactions between members of the oxygen and hydrogen chemical families that can be significantly affected by mesopause dynamics. In this study we compare SABER measurements of OH Meinel emission rates and temperatures with predictions from a 3-dimensional chemical dynamical model. In general, the model is capable of reproducing both the observed diurnal and seasonal OH Meinel emission variability. The results indicate that the diurnal tide has a large effect on the overall magnitude and temporal variation of the emission in low latitudes. This tidal variability is so dominant that the seasonal cycle in the nighttime emission depends very strongly on the local time of the analysis. At higher latitudes, the emission has an annual cycle that is due mainly to transport of oxygen by the seasonally reversing mean circulation.

Spatially explicit estimates of N2 O emissions from croplands suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved fertilizer management.

PubMed

Gerber, James S; Carlson, Kimberly M; Makowski, David; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Launay, Marie; O'Connell, Christine S; Smith, Pete; West, Paul C

2016-10-01

With increasing nitrogen (N) application to croplands required to support growing food demand, mitigating N2 O emissions from agricultural soils is a global challenge. National greenhouse gas emissions accounting typically estimates N2 O emissions at the country scale by aggregating all crops, under the assumption that N2 O emissions are linearly related to N application. However, field studies and meta-analyses indicate a nonlinear relationship, in which N2 O emissions are relatively greater at higher N application rates. Here, we apply a super-linear emissions response model to crop-specific, spatially explicit synthetic N fertilizer and manure N inputs to provide subnational accounting of global N2 O emissions from croplands. We estimate 0.66 Tg of N2 O-N direct global emissions circa 2000, with 50% of emissions concentrated in 13% of harvested area. Compared to estimates from the IPCC Tier 1 linear model, our updated N2 O emissions range from 20% to 40% lower throughout sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe, to >120% greater in some Western European countries. At low N application rates, the weak nonlinear response of N2 O emissions suggests that relatively large increases in N fertilizer application would generate relatively small increases in N2 O emissions. As aggregated fertilizer data generate underestimation bias in nonlinear models, high-resolution N application data are critical to support accurate N2 O emissions estimates. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Biogenic Emission Uncertainties on the Simulated Response of Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter to Anthropogenic Emission Reductions

PubMed Central

Hogrefe, Christian; Isukapalli, Sastry S.; Tang, Xiaogang; Georgopoulos, Panos G.; He, Shan; Zalewsky, Eric E.; Hao, Winston; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Key, Tonalee; Sistla, Gopal

2011-01-01

The role of emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitric oxide from biogenic sources is becoming increasingly important in regulatory air quality modeling as levels of anthropogenic emissions continue to decrease and stricter health-based air quality standards are being adopted. However, considerable uncertainties still exist in the current estimation methodologies for biogenic emissions. The impact of these uncertainties on ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels for the eastern United States was studied, focusing on biogenic emissions estimates from two commonly used biogenic emission models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS). Photochemical grid modeling simulations were performed for two scenarios: one reflecting present day conditions and the other reflecting a hypothetical future year with reductions in emissions of anthropogenic oxides of nitrogen (NOx). For ozone, the use of MEGAN emissions resulted in a higher ozone response to hypothetical anthropogenic NOx emission reductions compared with BEIS. Applying the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance on regulatory air quality modeling in conjunction with typical maximum ozone concentrations, the differences in estimated future year ozone design values (DVF) stemming from differences in biogenic emissions estimates were on the order of 4 parts per billion (ppb), corresponding to approximately 5% of the daily maximum 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 75 ppb. For PM2.5, the differences were 0.1–0.25 μg/m3 in the summer total organic mass component of DVFs, corresponding to approximately 1–2% of the value of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 μg/m3. Spatial variations in the ozone and PM2.5 differences also reveal that the impacts of different biogenic emission estimates on ozone and PM2.5 levels are dependent on ambient levels of anthropogenic emissions. PMID:21305893

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

PubMed

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

Mitigating Satellite-Based Fire Sampling Limitations in Deriving Biomass Burning Emission Rates: Application to WRF-Chem Model Over the Northern sub-Saharan African Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Yue, Yun; Wang, Yi; Ichoku, Charles; Ellison, Luke; Zeng, Jing

2018-01-01

Largely used in several independent estimates of fire emissions, fire products based on MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites have a number of inherent limitations, including (a) inability to detect fires below clouds, (b) significant decrease of detection sensitivity at the edge of scan where pixel sizes are much larger than at nadir, and (c) gaps between adjacent swaths in tropical regions. To remedy these limitations, an empirical method is developed here and applied to correct fire emission estimates based on MODIS pixel level fire radiative power measurements and emission coefficients from the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) biomass burning emission inventory. The analysis was performed for January 2010 over the northern sub-Saharan African region. Simulations from WRF-Chem model using original and adjusted emissions are compared with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from MODIS and AERONET as well as aerosol vertical profile from CALIOP data. The comparison confirmed an 30-50% improvement in the model simulation performance (in terms of correlation, bias, and spatial pattern of AOD with respect to observations) by the adjusted emissions that not only increases the original emission amount by a factor of two but also results in the spatially continuous estimates of instantaneous fire emissions at daily time scales. Such improvement cannot be achieved by simply scaling the original emission across the study domain. Even with this improvement, a factor of two underestimations still exists in the modeled AOD, which is within the current global fire emissions uncertainty envelope.

Speed Profiles for Improvement of Maritime Emission Estimation.

PubMed

Yau, Pui Shan; Lee, Shun-Cheng; Ho, Kin Fai

2012-12-01

Maritime emissions play an important role in anthropogenic emissions, particularly for cities with busy ports such as Hong Kong. Ship emissions are strongly dependent on vessel speed, and thus accurate vessel speed is essential for maritime emission studies. In this study, we determined minute-by-minute high-resolution speed profiles of container ships on four major routes in Hong Kong waters using Automatic Identification System (AIS). The activity-based ship emissions of NO(x), CO, HC, CO(2), SO(2), and PM(10) were estimated using derived vessel speed profiles, and results were compared with those using the speed limits of control zones. Estimation using speed limits resulted in up to twofold overestimation of ship emissions. Compared with emissions estimated using the speed limits of control zones, emissions estimated using vessel speed profiles could provide results with up to 88% higher accuracy. Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis of the model demonstrated the significance of improvement of vessel speed resolution. From spatial analysis, it is revealed that SO(2) and PM(10) emissions during maneuvering within 1 nautical mile from port were the highest. They contributed 7%-22% of SO(2) emissions and 8%-17% of PM(10) emissions of the entire voyage in Hong Kong.

Modelling the multiwavelength emission of Ultraluminous X-ray sources accreting above Eddington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambrosi, E.; Zampieri, L.

2017-10-01

Understanding ULXs requires a comprehensive modelling of their multiwavelength emission properties. We compute the optical-through-X-ray emission of ULXs assuming that they are binary systems with stellar-mass or massive-stellar Black Holes and considering the possibility that a non-standard disc sets in when the mass transfer rate (\\dot{M}) becomes highly super-Eddington. The emission model is applied to self-consistent simulations of ULX binaries. We compare our color-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) with those in the literature and find significant differences in the post main sequence evolution. When the donor is on the main-sequence and \\dot{M} is mildly super-Eddington, the behaviour of the system is similar to that found in previous investigations. However, when the donor star leaves the main-sequence and \\dot{M} becomes highly super-Eddington, the optical luminosity of the system is systematically larger and the colours show a markedly different evolution. The emission properties depend on the variable shielding of the outer disc and donor induced by the changing inner disc structure. We determine also the effects caused by the onset of a strong optically thick outflow. CMDs in various photometric systems are compared to the observed properties of the optical counterparts of several ULXs, obtaining updated constraints on their donor mass and accretion rate.

Polarisation Of High-Energy Emission In A Pulsar Striped Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petri, J. A.; Kirk, J. G.

2006-08-01

Recent observations of the polarisation of the optical pulses from the Crab pulsar (Kanbach et al. 2005, AIP Proceedings, astro-ph/0511636) motivated detailed comparative studies of the emission predicted by the polar cap, the outer gap and the two-pole caustics models. In this work, we study the polarisation properties of the synchrotron emission emanating from the striped wind model. We use an explicit asymptotic solution for the large-scale field structure related to the oblique split monopole and valid for the case of an ultrarelativistic plasma (Bogovalov, A&A, 1999, 349, 1017). This is combined with a crude model for the emissivity of the striped wind and of the magnetic field within the dissipating stripes themselves. We calculate the polarisation properties of the high-energy pulsed emission and compare our results with optical observations of the Crab pulsar. The resulting radiation is linearly polarized. In the off-pulse region, the electric vector lies in the direction of the projection on the sky of the rotation axis of the pulsar, in good agreement with the data. Other properties such as a reduced degree of polarisation and a characteristic sweep of the polarisation angle within the pulses are also reproduced (Petri & Kirk, ApJ Letters, 2005, 627, L37).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, R.; Barth, M. C.; Nair, V. S.

This study examines differences in the surface black carbon (BC) aerosol loading between the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS) and identifies dominant sources of BC in South Asia and surrounding regions during March-May 2006 (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, Gases and Radiation Budget, ICARB) period. A total of 13 BC tracers are introduced in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry to address these objectives. The model reproduced the temporal and spatial variability of BC distribution observed over the AS and the BoB during the ICARB ship cruise and captured spatial variability at the inlandmore » sites. In general, the model underestimates the observed BC mass concentrations. However, the model-observation discrepancy in this study is smaller compared to previous studies. Model results show that ICARB measurements were fairly well representative of the AS and the BoB during the pre-monsoon season. Elevated BC mass concentrations in the BoB are due to 5 times stronger influence of anthropogenic emissions on the BoB compared to the AS. Biomass burning in Burma also affects the BoB much more strongly than the AS. Results show that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, respectively, accounted for 60 and 37% of the average +/- standard deviation (representing spatial and temporal variability) BC mass concentration (1341 +/- 2353 ng m(-3)) in South Asia. BC emissions from residential (61 %) and industrial (23 %) sectors are the major anthropogenic sources, except in the Himalayas where vehicular emissions dominate. We find that regional-scale transport of anthropogenic emissions contributes up to 25% of BC mass concentrations in western and eastern India, suggesting that surface BC mass concentrations cannot be linked directly to the local emissions in different regions of South Asia.« less

Year-round simulated methane emissions from a permafrost ecosystem in Northeast Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Morales, Karel; Kleinen, Thomas; Kaiser, Sonja; Zaehle, Sönke; Kittler, Fanny; Kwon, Min Jung; Beer, Christian; Göckede, Mathias

2018-05-01

Wetlands of northern high latitudes are ecosystems highly vulnerable to climate change. Some degradation effects include soil hydrologic changes due to permafrost thaw, formation of deeper active layers, and rising topsoil temperatures that accelerate the degradation of permafrost carbon and increase in CO2 and CH4 emissions. In this work we present 2 years of modeled year-round CH4 emissions into the atmosphere from a Northeast Siberian region in the Russian Far East. We use a revisited version of the process-based JSBACH-methane model that includes four CH4 transport pathways: plant-mediated transport, ebullition and molecular diffusion in the presence or absence of snow. The gas is emitted through wetlands represented by grid cell inundated areas simulated with a TOPMODEL approach. The magnitude of the summertime modeled CH4 emissions is comparable to ground-based CH4 fluxes measured with the eddy covariance technique and flux chambers in the same area of study, whereas wintertime modeled values are underestimated by 1 order of magnitude. In an annual balance, the most important mechanism for transport of methane into the atmosphere is through plants (61 %). This is followed by ebullition ( ˜ 35 %), while summertime molecular diffusion is negligible (0.02 %) compared to the diffusion through the snow during winter ( ˜ 4 %). We investigate the relationship between temporal changes in the CH4 fluxes, soil temperature, and soil moisture content. Our results highlight the heterogeneity in CH4 emissions at landscape scale and suggest that further improvements to the representation of large-scale hydrological conditions in the model will facilitate a more process-oriented land surface scheme and better simulate CH4 emissions under climate change. This is especially necessary at regional scales in Arctic ecosystems influenced by permafrost thaw.

Emission factors of SO2, NOx and particles from ships in Neva Bay from ground-based and helicopter-borne measurements and AIS-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beecken, J.; Mellqvist, J.; Salo, K.; Ekholm, J.; Jalkanen, J.-P.; Johansson, L.; Litvinenko, V.; Volodin, K.; Frank-Kamenetsky, D. A.

2015-05-01

Emission factors of SO2, NOx and size-distributed particle numbers were measured for approximately 300 different ships in the Gulf of Finland and Neva Bay area during two campaigns in August/September 2011 and June/July 2012. The measurements were carried out from a harbor vessel and from an Mi-8 helicopter downwind of passing ships. Other measurements were carried out from shore sites near the island of Kronstadt and along the Neva River in the urban area of Saint Petersburg. Most ships were running at reduced speed (10 kn), i.e., not at their optimal load. Vessels for domestic and international shipping were monitored. It was seen that the distribution of the SO2 emission factors is bi-modal, with averages of 4.6 and 18.2 gSO2 kgfuel-1 for the lower and the higher mode, respectively. The emission factors show compliance with the 1% fuel sulfur content Sulfur Emission Control Areas (SECA) limit for 90% of the vessels in 2011 and 97% in 2012. The distribution of the NOx emission factor is mono-modal, with an average of 58 gNOx kgfuel-1. The corresponding emission related to the generated power yields an average of 12.1 gNOx kWh-1. The distribution of the emission factors for particulate number shows that nearly 90% of all particles in the 5.6 nm to 10 μm size range were below 70 nm in diameter. The distribution of the corresponding emission factors for the mass indicates two separated main modes, one for particles between 30 and 300 nm and the other for above 2 μm. The average particle emission factors were found to be in the range from 0.7 to 2.7 × 1016 particles kgfuel-1 and 0.2 to 3.4 gPM kgfuel-1, respectively. The NOx and particulate emissions are comparable with other studies. The measured emission factors were compared, for individual ships, to modeled ones using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM) of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. A reasonably good agreement for gaseous sulfur and nitrogen emissions can be seen for ships in international traffic, but significant deviations are found for inland vessels. Regarding particulate mass, the values of the modeled data are about 2-3 times higher than the measured results, which probably reflects the assumptions made in the modeled fuel sulfur content. The sulfur contents in the fuel retrieved from the measurements were lower than the previously used assumptions by the City of Saint Petersburg when carrying out atmospheric modeling, and using these measurements it was possible to better assess the impact of shipping on air quality.

Indirect estimation of emission factors for phosphate surface mining using air dispersion modeling.

PubMed

Tartakovsky, Dmitry; Stern, Eli; Broday, David M

2016-06-15

To date, phosphate surface mining suffers from lack of reliable emission factors. Due to complete absence of data to derive emissions factors, we developed a methodology for estimating them indirectly by studying a range of possible emission factors for surface phosphate mining operations and comparing AERMOD calculated concentrations to concentrations measured around the mine. We applied this approach for the Khneifiss phosphate mine, Syria, and the Al-Hassa and Al-Abyad phosphate mines, Jordan. The work accounts for numerous model unknowns and parameter uncertainties by applying prudent assumptions concerning the parameter values. Our results suggest that the net mining operations (bulldozing, grading and dragline) contribute rather little to ambient TSP concentrations in comparison to phosphate processing and transport. Based on our results, the common practice of deriving the emission rates for phosphate mining operations from the US EPA emission factors for surface coal mining or from the default emission factor of the EEA seems to be reasonable. Yet, since multiple factors affect dispersion from surface phosphate mines, a range of emission factors, rather than only a single value, was found to satisfy the model performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design of a hybrid emissivity domestic electric oven

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isik, Ozgur; Onbasioglu, Seyhan Uygur

2017-10-01

In this study, the radiative properties of the surfaces of an electric oven were investigated. Using experimental data related to an oven-like enclosure, a novel combination of surface properties was developed. Three different surface emissivity combinations were analysed experimentally: low-emissivity, high emissivity (black-coated), and hybrid emissivity. The term "hybrid emissivity design" here corresponds to an enclosure with some high emissive and some low-emissive surfaces. The experiments were carried out according to the EN 50304 standard. When a brick (load) was placed in the enclosure, the view factors between its surfaces were calculated with the Monte Carlo method. These and the measured surface temperatures were then used to calculate the radiative heat fluxes on the surfaces of the load. The three different models were compared with respect to energy consumption and baking time. The hybrid model performed best, with the highest radiative heat transfer between the surfaces of the enclosure and the load and minimum heat loss from the cavity. Thus, it was the most efficient model with the lowest energy consumption and the shortest baking time. The recent European Union regulation regarding the energy labelling of domestic ovens was used.

Top-down NOX emissions over European cities from LOTOS-EUROS simulated and OMI observed tropospheric NO2 columns using the Exponentially Modified Gaussian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstraeten, Willem W.; Folkert Boersma, K.; Douros, John; Williams, Jason E.; Eskes, Henk H.; Delcloo, Andy

2017-04-01

High nitrogen oxides concentrations at the surface (NOX = NO + NO2) impact humans and ecosystem badly and play a key role in tropospheric chemistry. Surface NOX emissions drive major processes in regional and global chemistry transport models (CTM). NOX contributes to the formation of acid rain, act as aerosol precursors and is an important trace gas for the formation of tropospheric ozone (O3). Via tropospheric O3, NOX indirectly affects the production of the hydroxyl radical which controls the chemical lifetime of key atmospheric pollutants and reactive greenhouse gases. High NOX emissions are mainly observed in polluted regions produced by anthropogenic combustion from industrial, traffic and household activities typically observed in large and densely populated urban areas. Accurate NOX inventories are essential, but state-of the- art emission databases may vary substantially and uncertainties are high since reported emissions factors may differ in order of magnitude and more. To date, the modelled NO2 concentrations and lifetimes have large associated uncertainties due to the highly non-linear small-scale chemistry that occurs in urban areas and uncertainties in the reaction rate data, missing nitrogen (N) species and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions, and incomplete knowledge of nitrogen oxides chemistry. Any overestimation in the chemical lifetime may mask missing NOX chemistry in current CTM's. By simultaneously estimating both the NO2 lifetime and concentrations, for instance by using the Exponentially Modified Gaussian (EMG), a better surface NOX emission flux estimate can be obtained. Here we evaluate if the EMG methodology can reproduce the emissions input from the tropospheric NO2 columns simulated by the LOTOS-EUROS (Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Ozone Simulation) CTM model. We apply the EMG methodology on LOTOS-EUROS simulated tropospheric NO2 columns for the period April-September 2013 for 21 selected European urban areas under windy conditions (surface wind speeds > 3 m s-1). We then compare the top-down derived surface NOX emissions with the 2011 MACC-III emission inventory, used in the LOTOS-EUROS model as input to simulate the NO2 columns. We also apply the EMG methodology on OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric NO2 column data, providing us with real-time observation-based estimates of midday NO2 lifetime and NOX emissions over 21 European cities in 2013. Results indicate that the top-down derived NOX emissions from LOTOS-EUROS (respectively OMI) are comparable with the MACC-III inventory with a R2 of 0.99 (respectively R2 = 0.79). For St-Petersburg and Moscow the top-down NOX estimates from 2013 OMI data are biased low compared to the MACC-III inventory which uses a 2011 NOX emissions update.

Estimation of snow emissivity via assimilation of multi-frequency passive microwave data into an ensemble-based data assimilation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhadi, L.; Bateni, S. M.; Auligne, T.; Navari, M.

2017-12-01

Snow emissivity is a key parameter for the estimation of snow surface temperature, which is needed as an initial value in climate models and determination of the outgoing long-wave radiation. Moreover, snow emissivity is required for retrieval of atmospheric parameters (e.g., temperature and humidity profiles) from satellite measurements and satellite data assimilations in numerical weather prediction systems. Microwave emission models and remote sensing data cannot accurately estimate snow emissivity due to limitations attributed to each of them. Existing microwave emission models introduce significant uncertainties in their snow emissivity estimates. This is mainly due to shortcomings of the dense media theory for snow medium at high frequencies, and erroneous forcing variables. The well-known limitations of passive microwave data such as coarse spatial resolution, saturation in deep snowpack, and signal loss in wet snow are the major drawbacks of passive microwave retrieval algorithms for estimation of snow emissivity. A full exploitation of the information contained in the remote sensing data can be achieved by merging them with snow emission models within a data assimilation framework. Such an optimal merging can overcome the specific limitations of models and remote sensing data. An Ensemble Batch Smoother (EnBS) data assimilation framework was developed in this study to combine the synthetically generated passive microwave brightness temperatures at 1.4-, 18.7-, 36.5-, and 89-GHz frequencies with the MEMLS microwave emission model to reduce the uncertainty of the snow emissivity estimates. We have used the EnBS algorithm in the context of observing system simulation experiment (or synthetic experiment) at the local scale observation site (LSOS) of the NASA CLPX field campaign. Our findings showed that the developed methodology significantly improves the estimates of the snow emissivity. The simultaneous assimilation of passive microwave brightness temperatures at all frequencies (i.e., 1.4-, 18.7-, 36.5-, and 89-GHz) reduce the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of snow emissivity at 1.4-, 18.7-, 36.5-, and 89-GHz (H-pol.) by 80%, 42%, 52%, 40%, respectively compared to the corresponding snow emissivity estimates from the open-loop model.

Covariance specification and estimation to improve top-down Green House Gas emission estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S.; Lopez-Coto, I.; Prasad, K.; Whetstone, J. R.

2015-12-01

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) operates the North-East Corridor (NEC) project and the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) in order to develop measurement methods to quantify sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions as well as their uncertainties in urban domains using a top down inversion method. Top down inversion updates prior knowledge using observations in a Bayesian way. One primary consideration in a Bayesian inversion framework is the covariance structure of (1) the emission prior residuals and (2) the observation residuals (i.e. the difference between observations and model predicted observations). These covariance matrices are respectively referred to as the prior covariance matrix and the model-data mismatch covariance matrix. It is known that the choice of these covariances can have large effect on estimates. The main objective of this work is to determine the impact of different covariance models on inversion estimates and their associated uncertainties in urban domains. We use a pseudo-data Bayesian inversion framework using footprints (i.e. sensitivities of tower measurements of GHGs to surface emissions) and emission priors (based on Hestia project to quantify fossil-fuel emissions) to estimate posterior emissions using different covariance schemes. The posterior emission estimates and uncertainties are compared to the hypothetical truth. We find that, if we correctly specify spatial variability and spatio-temporal variability in prior and model-data mismatch covariances respectively, then we can compute more accurate posterior estimates. We discuss few covariance models to introduce space-time interacting mismatches along with estimation of the involved parameters. We then compare several candidate prior spatial covariance models from the Matern covariance class and estimate their parameters with specified mismatches. We find that best-fitted prior covariances are not always best in recovering the truth. To achieve accuracy, we perform a sensitivity study to further tune covariance parameters. Finally, we introduce a shrinkage based sample covariance estimation technique for both prior and mismatch covariances. This technique allows us to achieve similar accuracy nonparametrically in a more efficient and automated way.

Observation of Solar Wind Charge Exchange Emission from Exospheric Material in and Outside Earth's Magnetosheath

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snowden, S. L.; Collier, M. R.; Cravens, T.; Kuntz, K. D.; Lepri, S. T.; Robertson, I.; Tomas, L.

2008-01-01

A long XMM-Newton exposure is used to observe solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) emission from exospheric material in and outside Earth s magnetosheath. The light curve of the O VII (0.5-0.62 keV) band is compared with a model for the expected emission, and while the emission is faint and the light curve has considerable scatter, the correlation is significant to better than 99.9%. This result demonstrates the validity of the geocoronal SWCX emission model for predicting a contribution to astrophysical observations to a scale factor of order unity (1.36). The results also demonstrate the potential utility of using X-ray observations to study global phenomena of the magnetosheath which currently are only investigated using in situ measurements.

QUIC Transport and Dispersion Modeling of Vehicle Emissions in Cities for Better Public Health Assessments.

PubMed

Brown, Michael J; Williams, Michael D; Nelson, Matthew A; Werley, Kenneth A

2015-01-01

The Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) plume modeling system is used to explore how the transport and dispersion of vehicle emissions in cities are impacted by the presence of buildings. Using downtown Philadelphia as a test case, notional vehicle emissions of gases and particles are specified as line source releases on a subset of the east-west and north-south streets. Cases were run in flat terrain and with 3D buildings present in order to show the differences in the model-computed outdoor concentration fields with and without buildings present. The QUIC calculations show that buildings result in regions with much higher concentrations and other areas with much lower concentrations when compared to the flat-earth case. On the roads with vehicle emissions, street-level concentrations were up to a factor of 10 higher when buildings were on either side of the street as compared to the flat-earth case due to trapping of pollutants between buildings. However, on roads without vehicle emissions and in other open areas, the concentrations were up to a factor of 100 times smaller as compared to the flat earth case because of vertical mixing of the vehicle emissions to building height in the cavity circulation that develops on the downwind side of unsheltered buildings. QUIC was also used to calculate infiltration of the contaminant into the buildings. Indoor concentration levels were found to be much lower than outdoor concentrations because of deposition onto indoor surfaces and particulate capture for buildings with filtration systems. Large differences in indoor concentrations from building to building resulted from differences in leakiness, air handling unit volume exchange rates, and filter type and for naturally ventilated buildings, whether or not the building was sheltered from the prevailing wind by a building immediately upwind.

Combined analysis of modeled and monitored SO2 concentrations at a complex smelting facility.

PubMed

Rehbein, Peter J G; Kennedy, Michael G; Cotsman, David J; Campeau, Madonna A; Greenfield, Monika M; Annett, Melissa A; Lepage, Mike F

2014-03-01

Vale Canada Limited owns and operates a large nickel smelting facility located in Sudbury, Ontario. This is a complex facility with many sources of SO2 emissions, including a mix of source types ranging from passive building roof vents to North America's tallest stack. In addition, as this facility performs batch operations, there is significant variability in the emission rates depending on the operations that are occurring. Although SO2 emission rates for many of the sources have been measured by source testing, the reliability of these emission rates has not been tested from a dispersion modeling perspective. This facility is a significant source of SO2 in the local region, making it critical that when modeling the emissions from this facility for regulatory or other purposes, that the resulting concentrations are representative of what would actually be measured or otherwise observed. To assess the accuracy of the modeling, a detailed analysis of modeled and monitored data for SO2 at the facility was performed. A mobile SO2 monitor sampled at five locations downwind of different source groups for different wind directions resulting in a total of 168 hr of valid data that could be used for the modeled to monitored results comparison. The facility was modeled in AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model) using site-specific meteorological data such that the modeled periods coincided with the same times as the monitored events. In addition, great effort was invested into estimating the actual SO2 emission rates that would likely be occurring during each of the monitoring events. SO2 concentrations were modeled for receptors around each monitoring location so that the modeled data could be directly compared with the monitored data. The modeled and monitored concentrations were compared and showed that there were no systematic biases in the modeled concentrations. This paper is a case study of a Combined Analysis of Modelled and Monitored Data (CAMM), which is an approach promulgated within air quality regulations in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Although combining dispersion models and monitoring data to estimate or refine estimates of source emission rates is not a new technique, this study shows how, with a high degree of rigor in the design of the monitoring and filtering of the data, it can be applied to a large industrial facility, with a variety of emission sources. The comparison of modeled and monitored SO2 concentrations in this case study also provides an illustration of the AERMOD model performance for a large industrial complex with many sources, at short time scales in comparison with monitored data. Overall, this analysis demonstrated that the AERMOD model performed well.

Evaluating EDGARv4.tox2 speciated mercury emissions ex-post scenarios and their impacts on modelled global and regional wet deposition patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Giang, Amanda; Selin, Noelle E.; Zhong, Hui; Zhao, Yu; Olivier, Jos G. J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Crippa, Monica; Schaaf, Edwin; Dentener, Frank

2018-07-01

Speciated mercury gridded emissions inventories together with chemical transport models and concentration measurements are essential when investigating both the effectiveness of mitigation measures and the mercury cycle in the environment. Since different mercury species have contrasting behaviour in the atmosphere, their proportion in anthropogenic emissions could determine the spatial impacts. In this study, the time series from 1970 to 2012 of the EDGARv4.tox2 global mercury emissions inventory are described; the total global mercury emission in 2010 is 1772 tonnes. Global grid-maps with geospatial distribution of mercury emissions at a 0.1° × 0.1° resolution are provided for each year. Compared to the previous tox1 version, tox2 provides updates for more recent years and improved emissions in particular for agricultural waste burning, power generation and artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sectors. We have also developed three retrospective emissions scenarios based on different hypotheses related to the proportion of mercury species in the total mercury emissions for each activity sector; improvements in emissions speciation are seen when using information primarily from field measurements. We evaluated them using the GEOS-Chem 3-D mercury model in order to explore the influence of speciation shifts, to reactive mercury forms in particular, on regional wet deposition patterns. The reference scenario S1 (EDGARv4.tox2_S1) uses speciation factors from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); scenario S2 ("EPA_power") uses factors from EPA's Information Collection Request (ICR); and scenario S3 ("Asia_filedM") factors from recent scientific publications. In the reference scenario, the sum of reactive mercury emissions (Hg-P and Hg2+) accounted for 25.3% of the total global emissions; the regions/countries that have shares of reactive mercury emissions higher than 6% in total global reactive mercury are China+ (30.9%), India+ (12.5%) and the United States (9.9%). In 2010, the variations of reactive mercury emissions amongst the different scenarios are in the range of -19.3 t/yr (China+) to 4.4 t/yr (OECD_Europe). However, at the sector level, the variation could be different, e.g., for the iron and steel industry in China reaches 15.4 t/yr. Model evaluation at the global level shows a variation of approximately ±10% in wet deposition for the three emissions scenarios. An evaluation of the impact of mercury speciation within nested grid sensitivity simulations is performed for the United States and modelled wet deposition fluxes are compared with measurements. These studies show that using the S2 and S3 emissions of reactive mercury, can improve wet deposition estimates near sources.

Estimation of VOC emissions from produced-water treatment ponds in Uintah Basin oil and gas field using modeling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, H.; Mansfield, M. L.; Lyman, S. N.; O'Neil, T.; Jones, C. P.

2015-12-01

Emissions from produced-water treatment ponds are poorly characterized sources in oil and gas emission inventories that play a critical role in studying elevated winter ozone events in the Uintah Basin, Utah, U.S. Information gaps include un-quantified amounts and compositions of gases emitted from these facilities. The emitted gases are often known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which, beside nitrogen oxides (NOX), are major precursors for ozone formation in the near-surface layer. Field measurement campaigns using the flux-chamber technique have been performed to measure VOC emissions from a limited number of produced water ponds in the Uintah Basin of eastern Utah. Although the flux chamber provides accurate measurements at the point of sampling, it covers just a limited area of the ponds and is prone to altering environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, pressure). This fact raises the need to validate flux chamber measurements. In this study, we apply an inverse-dispersion modeling technique with evacuated canister sampling to validate the flux-chamber measurements. This modeling technique applies an initial and arbitrary emission rate to estimate pollutant concentrations at pre-defined receptors, and adjusts the emission rate until the estimated pollutant concentrations approximates measured concentrations at the receptors. The derived emission rates are then compared with flux-chamber measurements and differences are analyzed. Additionally, we investigate the applicability of the WATER9 wastewater emission model for the estimation of VOC emissions from produced-water ponds in the Uintah Basin. WATER9 estimates the emission of each gas based on properties of the gas, its concentration in the waste water, and the characteristics of the influent and treatment units. Results of VOC emission estimations using inverse-dispersion and WATER9 modeling techniques will be reported.

Impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone in Europe for present day and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

Road traffic is an important anthropogenic source of NOx, CO and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) which act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone. The formation of ozone is highly non-linear. This means that the contribution of the road traffic sector cannot directly be derived from the amount of emitted species, because they are also determined by local emissions of other anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, long range transport of precursors and ozone can play an important role in determining the local ozone budget. For a complete assessment of the impact of road traffic emissions it is therefore important to resolve both, local emissions and long range transport. This can be achieved by the use of the newly developed MECO(n) model system, which on-line couples the global chemistry-climate-model EMAC with the regional chemistry-climate-model COSMO-CLM/MESSy. Both models use the same chemical speciation. This allows a highly consistent model chain from the global to the local scale. To quantify the contribution of the road traffic emissions to tropospheric ozone we use an accounting system of the relevant reaction pathways of the different species from different sources (called tagging method). This tagging scheme is implemented consistently on all scales, allowing a direct comparison of the contributions. With this model configuration we investigate the impact of road traffic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget in Europe. For the year 2008 we compare different emission scenarios and investigate the influence of both model and emission resolution. In addition, results of a mitigation scenario for the year 2030 are presented. They indicate that the contribution of the road traffic sector can be reduced by local reductions of emissions during summer. During winter the importance of long range transport increases. This can lead to increased contributions of the road traffic sector (e.g. by increased emissions in the US) even if local emissions are reduced.

Diagnostic evaluation of the Community Earth System Model in simulating mineral dust emission with insight into large-scale dust storm mobilization in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Sagar Prasad; Yang, Zong-Liang; Lawrence, David M.

2016-06-01

Large amounts of mineral dust are injected into the atmosphere during dust storms, which are common in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where most of the global dust hotspots are located. In this work, we present simulations of dust emission using the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2.2 (CESM 1.2.2) and evaluate how well it captures the spatio-temporal characteristics of dust emission in the MENA region with a focus on large-scale dust storm mobilization. We explicitly focus our analysis on the model's two major input parameters that affect the vertical mass flux of dust-surface winds and the soil erodibility factor. We analyze dust emissions in simulations with both prognostic CESM winds and with CESM winds that are nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis values. Simulations with three existing erodibility maps and a new observation-based erodibility map are also conducted. We compare the simulated results with MODIS satellite data, MACC reanalysis data, AERONET station data, and CALIPSO 3-d aerosol profile data. The dust emission simulated by CESM, when driven by nudged reanalysis winds, compares reasonably well with observations on daily to monthly time scales despite CESM being a global General Circulation Model. However, considerable bias exists around known high dust source locations in northwest/northeast Africa and over the Arabian Peninsula where recurring large-scale dust storms are common. The new observation-based erodibility map, which can represent anthropogenic dust sources that are not directly represented by existing erodibility maps, shows improved performance in terms of the simulated dust optical depth (DOD) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) compared to existing erodibility maps although the performance of different erodibility maps varies by region.

A model to relate wind tunnel measurements to open field odorant emissions from liquid area sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucernoni, F.; Capelli, L.; Busini, V.; Sironi, S.

2017-05-01

Waste Water Treatment Plants are known to have significant emissions of several pollutants and odorants causing nuisance to the near-living population. One of the purposes of the present work is to study a suitable model to evaluate odour emissions from liquid passive area sources. First, the models describing volatilization under a forced convection regime inside a wind tunnel device, which is the sampling device that typically used for sampling on liquid area sources, were investigated. In order to relate the fluid dynamic conditions inside the hood to the open field and inside the hood a thorough study of the models capable of describing the volatilization phenomena of the odorous compounds from liquid pools was performed and several different models were evaluated for the open field emission. By means of experimental tests involving pure liquid acetone and pure liquid butanone, it was verified that the model more suitable to describe precisely the volatilization inside the sampling hood is the model for the emission from a single flat plate in forced convection and laminar regime, with a fluid dynamic boundary layer fully developed and a mass transfer boundary layer not fully developed. The proportionality coefficient for the model was re-evaluated in order to account for the specific characteristics of the adopted wind tunnel device, and then the model was related with the selected model for the open field thereby computing the wind speed at 10 m that would cause the same emission that is estimated from the wind tunnel measurement furthermore, the field of application of the proposed model was clearly defined for the considered models during the project, discussing the two different kinds of compounds commonly found in emissive liquid pools or liquid spills, i.e. gas phase controlled and liquid phase controlled compounds. Lastly, a discussion is presented comparing the presented approach for emission rates recalculation in the field, with other approaches possible, i.e. the ones relying on the recalculation of the wind speed at the emission level, instead of the wind speed that would cause in the open field the same emission that is measured with the hood.

Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

DOE PAGES

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; ...

2015-06-10

The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effectsmore » of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.« less

Bulk energy storage increases United States electricity system emissions.

PubMed

Hittinger, Eric S; Azevedo, Inês M L

2015-03-03

Bulk energy storage is generally considered an important contributor for the transition toward a more flexible and sustainable electricity system. Although economically valuable, storage is not fundamentally a "green" technology, leading to reductions in emissions. We model the economic and emissions effects of bulk energy storage providing an energy arbitrage service. We calculate the profits under two scenarios (perfect and imperfect information about future electricity prices), and estimate the effect of bulk storage on net emissions of CO2, SO2, and NOx for 20 eGRID subregions in the United States. We find that net system CO2 emissions resulting from storage operation are nontrivial when compared to the emissions from electricity generation, ranging from 104 to 407 kg/MWh of delivered energy depending on location, storage operation mode, and assumptions regarding carbon intensity. Net NOx emissions range from -0.16 (i.e., producing net savings) to 0.49 kg/MWh, and are generally small when compared to average generation-related emissions. Net SO2 emissions from storage operation range from -0.01 to 1.7 kg/MWh, depending on location and storage operation mode.

Modeling crop residue burning experiments to evaluate smoke emissions and plume transport.

PubMed

Zhou, Luxi; Baker, Kirk R; Napelenok, Sergey L; Pouliot, George; Elleman, Robert; O'Neill, Susan M; Urbanski, Shawn P; Wong, David C

2018-06-15

Crop residue burning is a common land management practice that results in emissions of a variety of pollutants with negative health impacts. Modeling systems are used to estimate air quality impacts of crop residue burning to support retrospective regulatory assessments and also for forecasting purposes. Ground and airborne measurements from a recent field experiment in the Pacific Northwest focused on cropland residue burning was used to evaluate model performance in capturing surface and aloft impacts from the burning events. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate multiple crop residue burns with 2 km grid spacing using field-specific information and also more general assumptions traditionally used to support National Emission Inventory based assessments. Field study specific information, which includes area burned, fuel consumption, and combustion completeness, resulted in increased biomass consumption by 123 tons (60% increase) on average compared to consumption estimated with default methods in the National Emission Inventory (NEI) process. Buoyancy heat flux, a key parameter for model predicted fire plume rise, estimated from fuel loading obtained from field measurements can be 30% to 200% more than when estimated using default field information. The increased buoyancy heat flux resulted in higher plume rise by 30% to 80%. This evaluation indicates that the regulatory air quality modeling system can replicate intensity and transport (horizontal and vertical) features for crop residue burning in this region when region-specific information is used to inform emissions and plume rise calculations. Further, previous vertical emissions allocation treatment of putting all cropland residue burning in the surface layer does not compare well with measured plume structure and these types of burns should be modeled more similarly to prescribed fires such that plume rise is based on an estimate of buoyancy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Road traffic emission factors for heavy metals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, Christer; Norman, Michael; Burman, Lars

Quantifying the emissions and concentrations of heavy metals in urban air is a prerequisite for assessing their health effects. In this paper a combination of measurements and modelling is used to assess the contribution from road traffic emissions. Concentrations of particulate heavy metals in air were measured simultaneously during 1 year at a densely trafficked street and at an urban background site in Stockholm, Sweden. Annual mean concentrations of cadmium were 50 times lower than the EU directive and for nickel and arsenic concentrations were 10 and six times lower, respectively. More than a factor of two higher concentrations was in general observed at the street in comparison to roof levels indicating the strong influence from local road traffic emissions. The only compound with a significantly decreasing trend in the urban background was Pb with 9.1 ng m -3 in 1995/96 compared to 3.4 ng m -3 2003/04. This is likely due to decreased emissions from wear of brake linings and reduced emissions due to oil and coal combustion in central Europe. Total road traffic emission factors for heavy metals were estimated using parallel measurements of NOx concentrations and knowledge of NOx emission factors. In general, the emission factors for the street were higher than reported in road tunnel measurements. This could partly be due to different driving conditions, since especially for metals which are mainly emitted from brake wear, more stop and go driving in the street compared to in road tunnels is likely to increase emissions. Total emissions were compared with exhaust emissions, obtained from the COPERT model and brake wear emissions based on an earlier study in Stockholm. For Cu, Ni and Zn the sum of brake wear and exhaust emissions agreed very well with estimated total emission factors in this study. More than 90% of the road traffic emissions of Cu were due to brake wear. For Ni more than 80% is estimated to be due to exhaust emissions and for Zn around 40% of road traffic emissions are estimated to be due to exhaust emissions. Pb is also mainly due to exhaust emissions (90%); a fuel Pb content of only 0.5 mg L -1 would give similar emission factor as that based on the concentration increment at the street. This is the first study using simultaneous measurements of heavy metals at street and roof enabling calculations of emission factors using a tracer technique.

Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emissions between Two Dairy Farm Systems (Conventional vs. Organic Management) in New Hampshire Using the Manure DNDC Biogeochemical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorich, C.; Contosta, A.; Li, C.; Brito, A.; Varner, R. K.

2013-12-01

Agriculture contributes 20 to 25 % of the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. These agricultural emissions are primarily in the form of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) with these GHG accounting for roughly 40 and 80 % of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O, respectively. Due to varied management and the complexities of agricultural ecosystems, it is difficult to estimate these CH4 and N2O emissions. The IPCC emission factors can be used to yield rough estimates of CH4 and N2O emissions but they are often based on limited data. Accurate modeling validated by measurements is needed in order to identify potential mitigation areas, reduce GHG emissions from agriculture, and improve sustainability of farming practices. The biogeochemical model Manure DNDC was validated using measurements from two dairy farms in New Hampshire, USA in order to quantify GHG emissions under different management systems. One organic and one conventional dairy farm operated by the University of New Hampshire's Agriculture Experiment Station were utilized as the study sites for validation of Manure DNDC. Compilation of management records started in 2011 to provide model inputs. Model results were then compared to field collected samples of soil carbon and nitrogen, above-ground biomass, and GHG fluxes. Fluxes were measured in crop, animal, housing, and waste management sites on the farms in order to examine the entire farm ecosystem and test the validity of the model. Fluxes were measured by static flux chambers, with enteric fermentation measurements being conducted by the SF6 tracer test as well as a new method called Greenfeeder. Our preliminary GHG flux analysis suggests higher emissions than predicted by IPCC emission factors and equations. Results suggest that emissions from manure management is a key concern at the conventional dairy farm while bedded housing at the organic dairy produced large quantities of GHG.

The Lancet Countdown on PM2·5 pollution-related health impacts of China's projected carbon dioxide mitigation in the electric power generation sector under the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

PubMed

Cai, Wenjia; Hui, Jingxuan; Wang, Can; Zheng, Yixuan; Zhang, Xin; Zhang, Qiang; Gong, Peng

2018-04-01

Except for comparing the implementation costs of the Paris Agreement with potential health benefits at the national levels, previous studies have not explored the health impacts of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by countries and in regional details. In this Lancet Countdown study, we aimed to estimate and monetise the health benefits of China's NDCs in the electric power generation sector, and then compare them with the implementation costs, both at the national and regional levels. In this modelling study, we linked the Multi-regional model for Energy Supply system and their Environmental ImpaCts, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China model, the offline-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and the Integrated Health Impact Assessment model with a time scope from 2010 to 2050. We calculated the PM 2·5 concentrations and compared the health impacts and implementation costs between two scenarios that reflect CO 2 and air pollutant emissions-the reference (REF) scenario (no climate policy) and the NDC scenario (100% realisation of NDC targets: CO 2 emission intensity needs to be about 40% below 2010 emissions by 2030 [roughly 35% below 2030 emissions in REF], and about 90% below 2010 emissions by 2050 [roughly 96% below 2050 emissions in REF]). Under a comparatively optimistic health benefits valuation condition, at the national level, 18-62% of implementation costs could be covered by the health benefits in 2030. In 2050, the overall health benefits would substantially increase to 3-9 times of the implementation costs. However, northwest China would require the highest implementation costs and will also have more premature deaths because of a more carbon-intensive energy structure than business as usual. By 2030, people in northwest China (especially in Gansu, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang provinces) would need to bear worse air quality, and 10 083 (95% CI 3419-16 138) more premature deaths annually. This undesirable situation would diminish by about 2050. A solution that assumes no growth in air pollutant emissions in 2030 at the regional level is technically feasible, but would not be cost-effective. Our results suggest that cost-benefit analysis of climate policy that omits regional air pollution could greatly underestimate benefits. A compensation mechanism for inter-regional interests (including financial, technological, and knowledge support) should be established for regions that give up their human health benefits for the sake of the whole nation to realise the climate change targets. National Natural Science Foundation of China and Cyrus Tang Foundation. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Observation of Solar Wind Charge Exchange Emission From Exospheric Material in and Outside Earth's Magnetosheath 2008 September 25

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snowden, S. L.; Collier, M. R.; Cravens, T.; Kuntz, K. D.; Lepri, S. T.; Robertson, I.; Tomas, L.

2009-01-01

A long XMM-Newton exposure is used to observe solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) emission from exospheric material in and outside Earth's magnetosheath. The light curve of the O vii (0.5-0.62 keV) band is compared with a model for the expected emission, and while the emission is faint and the light curve has considerable scatter, the correlation is significant to better than 99.9%. This result demonstrates the validity of the geocoronal SWCX emission model for predicting a contribution to astrophysical observations to a scale factor of order unity (1.5). In addition, an average value of the SWCX O vii emission from the magnetosheath over the observation of 2.6 +/- 0.5 LU is derived. The results also demonstrate the potential utility of using X-ray observations to study global phenomena of the magnetosheath which currently are only investigated using in situ measurements.

A combined approach for the evaluation of a volatile organic compound emissions inventory.

PubMed

Choi, Yu-Jin; Calabrese, Richard V; Ehrman, Sheryl H; Dickerson, Russell R; Stehr, Jeffrey W

2006-02-01

Emissions inventories significantly affect photochemical air quality model performance and the development of effective control strategies. However, there have been very few studies to evaluate their accuracy. Here, to evaluate a volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions inventory, we implemented a combined approach: comparing the ratios of carbon bond (CB)-IV VOC groups to nitrogen oxides (NOx) or carbon monoxide (CO) using an emission preprocessing model, comparing the ratios of VOC source contributions from a source apportionment technique to NOx or CO, and comparing ratios of CB-IV VOC groups to NOx or CO and the absolute concentrations of CB-IV VOC groups using an air quality model, with the corresponding ratios and concentrations observed at three sites (Maryland, Washington, DC, and New Jersey). The comparisons of the ethene/NOx ratio, the xylene group (XYL)/NOx ratio, and ethene and XYL concentrations between estimates and measurements showed some differences, depending on the comparison approach, at the Maryland and Washington, DC sites. On the other hand, consistent results at the New Jersey site were observed, implying a possible overestimation of vehicle exhaust. However, in the case of the toluene group (TOL), which is emitted mainly from surface coating and printing sources in the solvent utilization category, the ratios of TOL/ NOx or CO, as well as the absolute concentrations revealed an overestimate of these solvent sources by a factor of 1.5 to 3 at all three sites. In addition, the overestimate of these solvent sources agreed with the comparisons of surface coating and printing source contributions relative to NOx from a source apportionment technique to the corresponding value of estimates at the Maryland site. Other studies have also suggested an overestimate of solvent sources, implying a possibility of inaccurate emission factors in estimating VOC emissions from surface coating and printing sources. We tested the impact of these overestimates with a chemical transport model and found little change in ozone but substantial changes in calculated secondary organic aerosol concentrations.

Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory

This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees.more » Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.« less

Comparison of emissions inventories of anthropogenic air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikawa, Eri; Kim, Hankyul; Zhong, Min; Avramov, Alexander; Zhao, Yu; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Kurokawa, Jun-ichi; Klimont, Zbigniew; Wagner, Fabian; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Zhang, Qiang

2017-05-01

Anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have been increasing rapidly in China, leading to worsening air quality. Modelers use emissions inventories to represent the temporal and spatial distribution of these emissions needed to estimate their impacts on regional and global air quality. However, large uncertainties exist in emissions estimates. Thus, assessing differences in these inventories is essential for the better understanding of air pollution over China. We compare five different emissions inventories estimating emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) from China. The emissions inventories analyzed in this paper include the Regional Emission inventory in ASia v2.1 (REAS), the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research v4.2 (EDGAR), the inventory by Yu Zhao (ZHAO), and the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS). We focus on the period between 2000 and 2008, during which Chinese economic activities more than doubled. In addition to national totals, we also analyzed emissions from four source sectors (industry, transport, power, and residential) and within seven regions in China (East, North, Northeast, Central, Southwest, Northwest, and South) and found that large disagreements exist among the five inventories at disaggregated levels. These disagreements lead to differences of 67 µg m-3, 15 ppbv, and 470 ppbv for monthly mean PM10, O3, and CO, respectively, in modeled regional concentrations in China. We also find that all the inventory emissions estimates create a volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited environment and MEIC emissions lead to much lower O3 mixing ratio in East and Central China compared to the simulations using REAS and EDGAR estimates, due to their low VOC emissions. Our results illustrate that a better understanding of Chinese emissions at more disaggregated levels is essential for finding effective mitigation measures for reducing national and regional air pollution in China.

Black carbon in the atmosphere and deposition on snow, last 130 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skeie, R. B.; Berntsen, T.; Myhre, G.; Pedersen, C.; Gerland, S.; Ström, J.; Forsström, S.

2009-04-01

The transport of Black Carbon (BC) in the atmosphere and the deposition of BC on snow surfaces for the last 130 years, with special emphasis on the last 8 years, are modeled with the Oslo CTM2 model. In addition regional contribution to BC deposition on snow in the polar region is evaluated for some years. The model results are compared with observations including our own recent measurement of BC in snow. Radiative forcing due to the direct effect as well as the snow-albedo effect is also calculated. Oslo CTM2 is an offline chemical transport model with T42 horizontal resolution using meteorological data from the IFS model at ECMWF. The scheme for BC includes hydrophilic and hydrophobic particles, as well as emissions from fossil fuel, biofuel and open biomass burning. Data on snow fall, melt and evaporation from ECMWF are used to generate and remove snow layers in each grid box. In these snow layers the amounts of deposited BC are stored, and concentration of BC in each snow layer is calculated. For the period 1870-2000 time slice simulations are done every 10th year. The period is simulated with constant meteorological data for the year 2000-2001 and vertical resolution of 40 levels. The emission data used is from Bond [1] for fossil fuel and biofuel, and data from Ito and Penner [2] for open biomass burning. The period 2000 until present are modeled with real time meteorological data and vertical resolution of 60 levels. Fossil fuel emission data used are the year 2000 data from Bond [1] except for the Asian region where REAS emissions [3] are used. For biomass burning BC emission the GFED data set are used [4]. The results are compared with available BC measurements from ice cores, air and snow. The observed time history of the BC concentration in snow over Greenland, US, and Himalaya is compared to the model results. During the years 2006-2008 several measurements of BC concentrations in snow in the Arctic region have been done, showing significant spatial variability. Within the large spread in the observations of BC concentration in snow, the model gives results that are consistent with the observations. In addition to evaluating total effect of BC in snow and its radiative effects, regional contribution to BC deposition on snow in the Arctic region are calculated. Today China is the region with largest BC fossil fuel emissions. Our results using the Olso CTM2 model show however that it is the 4th region in contribution to BC deposition on snow north of 65 degrees. The largest contributor is Russia, followed by Western Europe and North America. In the historical period, the share of emissions between these regions differs from the present situation. The BC emissions from fossil fuel in North America and Western Europe were respectively 3 and 2 times larger in 1920-30 than the present emissions from these regions. Therefore those regions had a higher contribution to BC in snow in the Arctic region 80 years ago than they have today. References: 1. Bond, T.C., et al., Historical emissions of black and organic carbon aerosol from energy-related combustion, 1850-2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2007. 21(2): p. 16. 2. Ito, A. and J.E. Penner, Historical emissions of carbonaceous aerosols from biomass and fossil fuel burning for the period 1870-2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2005. 19(2): p. 14. 3. Ohara, T., et al., An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980-2020. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2007. 7(16): p. 4419-4444. 4. van der Werf, G.R., et al., Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2006. 6(11): p. 3423-3441.

Sensitivity Analysis of PM2.5 in Seoul to Emissions and Reaction Rates Using the GEOS-Chem and its Adjoint Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. M.; Park, R.; Henze, D. K.; Shim, C.; Shin, H. J.; Song, I. H.; Park, J. S.; Park, S. M.; Moon, K. J.

2015-12-01

The sources of PM2.5 are poorly quantified in Seoul, Korea, where tens of millions of populations are daily exposed to the exceedance of PM2.5 concentrations to the air quality criteria. We used a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and its adjoint to investigate the sensitivities of PM2.5 concentrations in Seoul to emission sources, sectors, and chemical reaction rates. We first conduct forward model simulations using a nested version of GEOS-Chem with 0.25°x0.3125° spatial resolutions in East Asia for July 2012 - July 2013. We evaluated the model by comparing it with PM2.5 mass and chemical composition observations at National Institute of Environmental Research sites in Korea. The model reasonably reproduces the observed seasonal variability of PM2.5 concentrations (R=0.3-0.6), but tends to overestimate the observations in summer and underestimate them in winter. Our sensitivity analyses show the dominant contributions from local emission sources to PM2.5 concentrations in Seoul compared to the trans-boundary transport influences from the outside, which are important for long-lived tracers in spring. Other results including the model sensitivity to input parameters and the updated emissions are used to improve the model performance and to provide strategic information for the KORUS-AQ flight measurement campaign in May-June, 2016.

Comparative Assessment of Models and Methods To Calculate Grid Electricity Emissions.

PubMed

Ryan, Nicole A; Johnson, Jeremiah X; Keoleian, Gregory A

2016-09-06

Due to the complexity of power systems, tracking emissions attributable to a specific electrical load is a daunting challenge but essential for many environmental impact studies. Currently, no consensus exists on appropriate methods for quantifying emissions from particular electricity loads. This paper reviews a wide range of the existing methods, detailing their functionality, tractability, and appropriate use. We identified and reviewed 32 methods and models and classified them into two distinct categories: empirical data and relationship models and power system optimization models. To illustrate the impact of method selection, we calculate the CO2 combustion emissions factors associated with electric-vehicle charging using 10 methods at nine charging station locations around the United States. Across the methods, we found an up to 68% difference from the mean CO2 emissions factor for a given charging site among both marginal and average emissions factors and up to a 63% difference from the average across average emissions factors. Our results underscore the importance of method selection and the need for a consensus on approaches appropriate for particular loads and research questions being addressed in order to achieve results that are more consistent across studies and allow for soundly supported policy decisions. The paper addresses this issue by offering a set of recommendations for determining an appropriate model type on the basis of the load characteristics and study objectives.

CO2 non-LTE limb emissions in Mars' atmosphere as observed by OMEGA/Mars Express

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccialli, A.; López-Valverde, M. A.; Määttänen, A.; González-Galindo, F.; Audouard, J.; Altieri, F.; Forget, F.; Drossart, P.; Gondet, B.; Bibring, J. P.

2016-06-01

We report on daytime limb observations of Mars upper atmosphere acquired by the OMEGA instrument on board the European spacecraft Mars Express. The strong emission observed at 4.3 μm is interpreted as due to CO2 fluorescence of solar radiation and is detected at a tangent altitude in between 60 and 110 km. The main value of OMEGA observations is that they provide simultaneously spectral information and good spatial sampling of the CO2 emission. In this study we analyzed 98 dayside limb observations spanning over more than 3 Martian years, with a very good latitudinal and longitudinal coverage. Thanks to the precise altitude sounding capabilities of OMEGA, we extracted vertical profiles of the non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) emission at each wavelength and we studied their dependence on several geophysical parameters, such as the solar illumination and the tangent altitude. The dependence of the non-LTE emission on solar zenith angle and altitude follows a similar behavior to that predicted by the non-LTE model. According to our non-LTE model, the tangent altitude of the peak of the CO2 emission varies with the thermal structure, but the pressure level where the peak of the emission is found remains constant at ˜0.03 ± 0.01 Pa, . This non-LTE model prediction has been corroborated by comparing SPICAM and OMEGA observations. We have shown that the seasonal variations of the altitude of constant pressure levels in SPICAM stellar occultation retrievals correlate well with the variations of the OMEGA peak emission altitudes, although the exact pressure level cannot be defined with the spectroscopy for the investigation of the characteristics of the atmosphere of Venus (SPICAM) nighttime data. Thus, observed changes in the altitude of the peak emission provide us information on the altitude of the 0.03 Pa pressure level. Since the pressure at a given altitude is dictated by the thermal structure below, the tangent altitude of the peak emission represents then an important piece of information of the atmosphere, of great value for validating general circulation models. We thus compared the altitude of OMEGA peak emission with the altitude of the 0.03 Pa level predicted by the Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique (LMD)-Mars global circulation model and found that the peak emission altitudes from OMEGA present a much larger variability than the tangent altitude of the 0.03 Pa level predicted by the general circulation model. This variability could be possibly due to unresolved atmospheric waves. Further studies using this strong CO2 limb emission data are proposed.

Emission factors of SO2, NOx and particles from ships in Neva Bay from ground-based and helicopter-borne measurements and AIS-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beecken, J.; Mellqvist, J.; Salo, K.; Ekholm, J.; Jalkanen, J.-P.; Johansson, L.; Litvinenko, V.; Volodin, K.; Frank-Kamenetsky, D. A.

2014-10-01

Emission factors of SO2, NOx and size distributed particle numbers were measured for approximately 300 different ships in the Gulf of Finland and Neva Bay area during two campaigns in August/September 2011 and June/July 2012. The measurements were carried out from a harbor vessel and from an MI-8 helicopter downwind of passing ships. Other measurements were carried out from shore sites near the island of Kronstadt and along the river Neva in the city area of Saint Petersburg. Most ships were running at reduced speed (10 knots), i.e. not at their optimal load. Vessels for domestic and international shipping were monitored. It was seen that the distribution of the SO2 emission factors is bi-modal with averages of 4.6 gSO2 kgfuel-1 and 18.2 gSO2 kgfuel-1 for the lower and the higher mode, respectively. The emission factors show compliance with the 1% fuel sulfur content SECA limit for 90% of the vessels in 2011 and 97% in 2012. The distribution of the NOx emission factor is mono-modal with an average of 58 gNOx kgfuel-1. The corresponding emission related to the generated power yields an average of 12.1 gNOx kWh-1. The distribution of the emission factors for particulate number shows that nearly 90% of all particles in the 5.6 nm to 10 μm size range were below 70 nm in diameter. The distribution of the corresponding emission factors for the mass indicates two separated main modes, one for particles between 30 and 300 nm the other above 2 μm. The average particle emission factors were found to be in the range from 0.7 to 2.7 × 1016 particles kgfuel-1 and 0.2 to 3.4 gPM kgfuel-1, respectively. The NOx and particulate emissions are comparable with other studies. The measured emission factors were compared, for individual ships, to modeled ones using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM) of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. A reasonably good agreement for gaseous sulfur and nitrogen emissions can be seen for ships in international traffic, but significant deviations are found for inland vessels. Considering particulate mass, the modeled data is about two to three times above the measured results, which probably reflects the assumptions made in the modeled fuel sulfur content. The sulfur contents in the fuel retrieved from the measurements were lower than the previously used assumptions by the city of Saint Petersburg when carrying out atmospheric modeling and using these measurements it was possible to better assess the impact of shipping on air quality.

Modeling electron emission and surface effects from diamond cathodes

DOE PAGES

Dimitrov, D. A.; Smithe, D.; Cary, J. R.; ...

2015-02-05

We developed modeling capabilities, within the Vorpal particle-in-cell code, for three-dimensional (3D) simulations of surface effects and electron emission from semiconductor photocathodes. They include calculation of emission probabilities using general, piece-wise continuous, space-time dependent surface potentials, effective mass and band bending field effects. We applied these models, in combination with previously implemented capabilities for modeling charge generation and transport in diamond, to investigate the emission dependence on applied electric field in the range from approximately 2 MV/m to 17 MV/m along the [100] direction. The simulation results were compared to experimental data. For the considered parameter regime, conservation of transversemore » electron momentum (in the plane of the emission surface) allows direct emission from only two (parallel to [100]) of the six equivalent lowest conduction band valleys. When the electron affinity χ is the only parameter varied in the simulations, the value χ = 0.31 eV leads to overall qualitative agreement with the probability of emission deduced from experiments. Including band bending in the simulations improves the agreement with the experimental data, particularly at low applied fields, but not significantly. In this study, using surface potentials with different profiles further allows us to investigate the emission as a function of potential barrier height, width, and vacuum level position. However, adding surface patches with different levels of hydrogenation, modeled with position-dependent electron affinity, leads to the closest agreement with the experimental data.« less

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Zhang, Wenxin; Mi, Yanjiao

The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005-2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tgmore » CH4 yr(-1) higher compared to 1981-1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.« less

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline.

PubMed

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W; Zhang, Wenxin; Mi, Yanjiao; Zhu, Xudong; van Huissteden, Jacobus; Hayes, Daniel J; Zhuang, Qianlai; Christensen, Torben R; McGuire, A David

2015-09-16

The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005-2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tg CH 4  yr -1 higher compared to 1981-1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

DOE PAGES

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Zhang, Wenxin; Mi, Yanjiao; ...

2015-09-10

The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005-2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tgmore » CH4 yr(-1) higher compared to 1981-1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.« less

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Zhang, Wenxin; Zhu, Xudong; van Huissteden, Jacobus; Hayes, Daniel J.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Christensen, Torben R.; McGuire, A. David

2015-01-01

The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005–2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1 higher compared to 1981–1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

PubMed Central

Zhang, Wenxin; Mi, Yanjiao; Zhu, Xudong; van Huissteden, Jacobus; Hayes, Daniel J.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Christensen, Torben R.; McGuire, A. David

2015-01-01

Abstract The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice‐free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process‐based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high‐latitude emissions for 2005–2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1 higher compared to 1981–1990 due to a sea ice‐induced, autumn‐focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions. PMID:27667870

Space based inverse modeling of seasonal variations of anthropogenic and natural emissions of nitrogen oxides over China and effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) are important atmospheric constituents affecting the tropospheric chemistry, surface air quality and climatic forcing. They are emitted both from anthropogenic and from natural (soil, lightning, biomass burning, etc.) sources, which can be estimated inversely from satellite remote sensing of the vertical column densities (VCDs) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the troposphere. Based on VCDs of NO2 retrieved from OMI, a novel approach is developed in this study to separate anthropogenic emissions of NOx from natural sources over East China for 2006. It exploits the fact that anthropogenic and natural emissions vary with seasons with distinctive patterns. The global chemical transport model (CTM) GEOS-Chem is used to establish the relationship between VCDs of NO2 and emissions of NOx for individual sources. Derived soil emissions are compared to results from a newly developed bottom-up approach. Effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry over China, an important source of errors in the emission inversion, are evaluated systematically for the first time. Meteorological measurements from space and the ground are used to analyze errors in meteorological parameters driving the CTM.

High-Mileage Light-Duty Fleet Vehicle Emissions: Their Potentially Overlooked Importance.

PubMed

Bishop, Gary A; Stedman, Donald H; Burgard, Daniel A; Atkinson, Oscar

2016-05-17

State and local agencies in the United States use activity-based computer models to estimate mobile source emissions for inventories. These models generally assume that vehicle activity levels are uniform across all of the vehicle emission level classifications using the same age-adjusted travel fractions. Recent fuel-specific emission measurements from the SeaTac Airport, Los Angeles, and multi-year measurements in the Chicago area suggest that some high-mileage fleets are responsible for a disproportionate share of the fleet's emissions. Hybrid taxis at the airport show large increases in carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, and oxide of nitrogen emissions in their fourth year when compared to similar vehicles from the general population. Ammonia emissions from the airport shuttle vans indicate that catalyst reduction capability begins to wane after 5-6 years, 3 times faster than is observed in the general population, indicating accelerated aging. In Chicago, the observed, on-road taxi fleet also had significantly higher emissions and an emissions share that was more than double their fleet representation. When compounded by their expected higher than average mileage accumulation, we estimate that these small fleets (<1% of total) may be overlooked as a significant emission source (>2-5% of fleet emissions).

Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

2012-12-01

Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

A 100-3000 GHz model of thermal dust emission observed by Planck, DIRBE and IRAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meisner, Aaron M.; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

2015-01-01

We apply the Finkbeiner et al. (1999) two-component thermal dust emission model to the Planck HFI maps. This parametrization of the far-infrared dust spectrum as the sum of two modified blackbodies serves as an important alternative to the commonly adopted single modified blackbody (MBB) dust emission model. Analyzing the joint Planck/DIRBE dust spectrum, we show that two-component models provide a better fit to the 100-3000 GHz emission than do single-MBB models, though by a lesser margin than found by Finkbeiner et al. (1999) based on FIRAS and DIRBE. We also derive full-sky 6.1' resolution maps of dust optical depth and temperature by fitting the two-component model to Planck 217-857 GHz along with DIRBE/IRAS 100μm data. Because our two-component model matches the dust spectrum near its peak, accounts for the spectrum's flattening at millimeter wavelengths, and specifies dust temperature at 6.1' FWHM, our model provides reliable, high-resolution thermal dust emission foreground predictions from 100 to 3000 GHz. We find that, in diffuse sky regions, our two-component 100-217 GHz predictions are on average accurate to within 2.2%, while extrapolating the Planck Collaboration (2013) single-MBB model systematically underpredicts emission by 18.8% at 100 GHz, 12.6% at 143 GHz and 7.9% at 217 GHz. We calibrate our two-component optical depth to reddening, and compare with reddening estimates based on stellar spectra. We find the dominant systematic problems in our temperature/reddening maps to be zodiacal light on large angular scales and the cosmic infrared background anistropy on small angular scales. We have recently released maps and associated software utilities for obtaining thermal dust emission and reddening predictions using our Planck-based two-component model.

Direct and Indirect Measurements and Modeling of Methane Emissions in Indianapolis, Indiana.

PubMed

Lamb, Brian K; Cambaliza, Maria O L; Davis, Kenneth J; Edburg, Steven L; Ferrara, Thomas W; Floerchinger, Cody; Heimburger, Alexie M F; Herndon, Scott; Lauvaux, Thomas; Lavoie, Tegan; Lyon, David R; Miles, Natasha; Prasad, Kuldeep R; Richardson, Scott; Roscioli, Joseph Robert; Salmon, Olivia E; Shepson, Paul B; Stirm, Brian H; Whetstone, James

2016-08-16

This paper describes process-based estimation of CH4 emissions from sources in Indianapolis, IN and compares these with atmospheric inferences of whole city emissions. Emissions from the natural gas distribution system were estimated from measurements at metering and regulating stations and from pipeline leaks. Tracer methods and inverse plume modeling were used to estimate emissions from the major landfill and wastewater treatment plant. These direct source measurements informed the compilation of a methane emission inventory for the city equal to 29 Gg/yr (5% to 95% confidence limits, 15 to 54 Gg/yr). Emission estimates for the whole city based on an aircraft mass balance method and from inverse modeling of CH4 tower observations were 41 ± 12 Gg/yr and 81 ± 11 Gg/yr, respectively. Footprint modeling using 11 days of ethane/methane tower data indicated that landfills, wastewater treatment, wetlands, and other biological sources contribute 48% while natural gas usage and other fossil fuel sources contribute 52% of the city total. With the biogenic CH4 emissions omitted, the top-down estimates are 3.5-6.9 times the nonbiogenic city inventory. Mobile mapping of CH4 concentrations showed low level enhancement of CH4 throughout the city reflecting diffuse natural gas leakage and downstream usage as possible sources for the missing residual in the inventory.

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios on Hydrology in the Mekong Basins and their Effects on Irrigation and Hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, L. K.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Water distribution is closely linked to food and energy security. Aerosol emissions affect cloud properties, as well as atmospheric stability, changing the distribution of precipitation. These changes in precipitation causes changes in water availability, affecting food production and energy generation. These impacts are especially important in Southeast Asia, which uses up to 90% of their water supply for irrigation. In addition, the Mekong river, the largest inland fishery in the world, has 30,000MW of hydropower potential in its lower reaches alone. Modelling the impacts of these anthropogenic emission scenarios will allow us to better understand their downstream effects on hydrology, and any potential feedbacks it may have on future aerosol emissions. In the first step, we run the WRF model using FNL reanlaysis data from 2014 and 2015 to generate the WRF-hydro model forcing inputs. We then run the WRF-hydro model and compare the output with current measurements of soil moisture, river flow, and precipitation. Secondly, we run the WRF-Chem model with various anthropogenic emission scenarios and put the results through the WRF-hydro model to determine the impact of these emission scenarios on soil moisture and river flow. The scenarios include enhanced anthropogenic emissions in Asia, anologous to widespread adoption of coal burning as an energy source in Asia. Anthropogenic emissions have the potential to affect energy policy in countries affected by these emissions. When hydropower generation is affected by changes in precipitation, the affected countries will have to switch to alternative sources of fuel to meet their energy needs. These sources typically result in changes in anthropogenic aerosol emisssions, especially if coal is used as an alternative source of energy.

Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

High-resolution quantification of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugliese, Stephanie C.; Murphy, Jennifer G.; Vogel, Felix R.; Moran, Michael D.; Zhang, Junhua; Zheng, Qiong; Stroud, Craig A.; Ren, Shuzhan; Worthy, Douglas; Broquet, Gregoire

2018-03-01

Many stakeholders are seeking methods to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in urban areas, but reliable, high-resolution inventories are required to guide these efforts. We present the development of a high-resolution CO2 inventory available for the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding region in Southern Ontario, Canada (area of ˜ 2.8 × 105 km2, 26 % of the province of Ontario). The new SOCE (Southern Ontario CO2 Emissions) inventory is available at the 2.5 × 2.5 km spatial and hourly temporal resolution and characterizes emissions from seven sectors: area, residential natural-gas combustion, commercial natural-gas combustion, point, marine, on-road, and off-road. To assess the accuracy of the SOCE inventory, we developed an observation-model framework using the GEM-MACH chemistry-transport model run on a high-resolution grid with 2.5 km grid spacing coupled to the Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS) v2 inventories for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land carbon model C-TESSEL for biogenic fluxes. A run using FFDAS for the Southern Ontario region was compared to a run in which its emissions were replaced by the SOCE inventory. Simulated CO2 mixing ratios were compared against in situ measurements made at four sites in Southern Ontario - Downsview, Hanlan's Point, Egbert and Turkey Point - in 3 winter months, January-March 2016. Model simulations had better agreement with measurements when using the SOCE inventory emissions versus other inventories, quantified using a variety of statistics such as correlation coefficient, root-mean-square error, and mean bias. Furthermore, when run with the SOCE inventory, the model had improved ability to capture the typical diurnal pattern of CO2 mixing ratios, particularly at the Downsview, Hanlan's Point, and Egbert sites. In addition to improved model-measurement agreement, the SOCE inventory offers a sectoral breakdown of emissions, allowing estimation of average time-of-day and day-of-week contributions of different sectors. Our results show that at night, emissions from residential and commercial natural-gas combustion and other area sources can contribute > 80 % of the CO2 enhancement, while during the day emissions from the on-road sector dominate, accounting for > 70 % of the enhancement.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romanov, Gennady; /Fermilab

CST Particle Studio combines electromagnetic field simulation, multi-particle tracking, adequate post-processing and advanced probabilistic emission model, which is the most important new capability in multipactor simulation. The emission model includes in simulation the stochastic properties of emission and adds primary electron elastic and inelastic reflection from the surfaces. The simulation of multipactor in coaxial waveguides have been performed to study the effects of the innovations on the multipactor threshold and the range over which multipactor can occur. The results compared with available previous experiments and simulations as well as the technique of MP simulation with CST PS are presented andmore » discussed.« less

An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerwing, Elena; Hort, Matthias; Behrens, Jörn; Langmann, Bärbel

2018-06-01

The dispersion of volcanic emissions in the Earth atmosphere is of interest for climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. Current volcanic emission dispersion models rely on fixed-grid structures that often are not able to resolve the fine filamented structure of volcanic emissions being transported in the atmosphere. Here we extend an existing adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for volcanic emissions including the sedimentation of volcanic ash. The advection of volcanic emissions is driven by a precalculated wind field. For evaluation of the model, the explosive eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 is chosen, which was one of the largest eruptions in the 20th century. We compare our simulations of the climactic eruption on 15 June 1991 to satellite data of the Pinatubo ash cloud and evaluate different sets of input parameters. We could reproduce the general advection of the Pinatubo ash cloud and, owing to the adaptive mesh, simulations could be performed at a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost. Differences to the observed ash cloud are attributed to uncertainties in the input parameters and the course of Typhoon Yunya, which is probably not completely resolved in the wind data used to drive the model. The best results were achieved for simulations with multiple ash particle sizes.

Attributing impacts to emissions traced to major fossil energy and cement producers over specific historical time periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Allen, M. R.; Boneham, J.; Heede, R.; Dalton, M. W.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Given the progress in climate change attribution research over the last decade, attribution studies can inform policymakers guided by the UNFCCC principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." Historically this has primarily focused on nations, yet requests for information on the relative role of the fossil energy sector are growing. We present an approach that relies on annual CH4 and CO2 emissions from production through to the sale of products from the largest industrial fossil fuel and cement production company records from the mid-nineteenth century to present (Heede 2014). Analysis of the global trends with all the natural and human drivers compared with a scenario without the emissions traced to major carbon producers over full historical versus select periods of recent history can be policy relevant. This approach can be applied with simple climate models and earth system models depending on the type of climate impacts being investigated. For example, results from a simple climate model, using best estimate parameters and emissions traced to 90 largest carbon producers, illustrate the relative difference in global mean surface temperature increase over 1880-2010 after removing these emissions from 1980-2010 (29-35%) compared with removing these emissions over 1880-2010 (42-50%). The changing relative contributions from the largest climate drivers can be important to help assess the changing risks for stakeholders adapting to and reducing exposure and vulnerability to regional climate change impacts.

Directional infrared temperature and emissivity of vegetation: Measurements and models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norman, J. M.; Castello, S.; Balick, L. K.

1994-01-01

Directional thermal radiance from vegetation depends on many factors, including the architecture of the plant canopy, thermal irradiance, emissivity of the foliage and soil, view angle, slope, and the kinetic temperature distribution within the vegetation-soil system. A one dimensional model, which includes the influence of topography, indicates that thermal emissivity of vegetation canopies may remain constant with view angle, or emissivity may increase or decrease as view angle from nadir increases. Typically, variations of emissivity with view angle are less than 0.01. As view angle increases away from nadir, directional infrared canopy temperature usually decreases but may remain nearly constant or even increase. Variations in directional temperature with view angle may be 5C or more. Model predictions of directional emissivity are compared with field measurements in corn canopies and over a bare soil using a method that requires two infrared thermometers, one sensitive to the 8 to 14 micrometer wavelength band and a second to the 14 to 22 micrometer band. After correction for CO2 absorption by the atmosphere, a directional canopy emissivity can be obtained as a function of view angle in the 8 to 14 micrometer band to an accuracy of about 0.005. Modeled and measured canopy emissivities for corn varied slightly with view angle (0.990 at nadir and 0.982 at 75 deg view zenith angle) and did not appear to vary significantly with view angle for the bare soil. Canopy emissivity is generally nearer to unity than leaf emissivity may vary by 0.02 with wavelength even though leaf emissivity. High spectral resolution, canopy thermal emissivity may vary by 0.02 with wavelength even though leaf emissivity may vary by 0.07. The one dimensional model provides reasonably accurate predictions of infrared temperature and can be used to study the dependence of infrared temperature on various plant, soil, and environmental factors.

Prediction on carbon dioxide emissions based on fuzzy rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauzi, Herrini; Abdullah, Lazim

2014-06-01

There are several ways to predict air quality, varying from simple regression to models based on artificial intelligence. Most of the conventional methods are not sufficiently able to provide good forecasting performances due to the problems with non-linearity uncertainty and complexity of the data. Artificial intelligence techniques are successfully used in modeling air quality in order to cope with the problems. This paper describes fuzzy inference system (FIS) to predict CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Furthermore, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to compare the prediction performance. Data of five variables: energy use, gross domestic product per capita, population density, combustible renewable and waste and CO2 intensity are employed in this comparative study. The results from the two model proposed are compared and it is clearly shown that the ANFIS outperforms FIS in CO2 prediction.

GOSAT observations of anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide and methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardanan, Rajesh; Maksyutov, Shamil; Oda, Tomohiro; Saito, Makoto; Ito, Akihiko; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Ganshin, Alexander; Yoshida, Yukio; Yokota, Tatsuya; Matsunaga, Tsuneo

2017-04-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the most important greenhouse gases in terms of radiative forcing. Human activities such as combustion of fossil fuel (for CO2), and gas leakage, animal agriculture, rice cultivation and landfill emissions (for CH4), are considered to be major sources of their emissions. Global emissions datasets usually depend on emission estimates reported by countries, which are seldom evaluated in an objective way. Here we present a method for delineating anthropogenic contributions to global atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (2009-2014) concentration fields using GOSAT observations of column-average dry air mole fractions (XCO2 and XCH4) and atmospheric transport model simulations using high-resolution emissions datasets (ODIAC for CO2 and EDGAR for CH4). The XCO2 and XCH4 concentration enhancements due to anthropogenic emissions are estimated at all GOSAT observation locations using the transport model simulation. We calculated threshold values to classify GOSAT observations into two categories: (1) data influenced by the anthropogenic sources and (2) those not influenced. We defined a clean background (averaged concentrations of GOSAT data that are free from contamination) in 10˚ ×10˚ regions over the globe and subtracted the background values from individual GOSAT observations. The anomalies (GOSAT observed values minus background values) were binned and compared to model-based anomalies over continental regions and selected countries. For CO2, we have found global and regional linear relationships between model and observed anomalies especially for Eurasia and North America. The analysis for East Asian region showed a systematic bias that is somewhat comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties in emission inventories in that region, which were reported by recent studies. In the case of CH4, we found a good match between inventory-based estimates and GOSAT observations for continental regions and large countries. The inventory-based estimate over North American region is biased which is in agreement with recent studies. Currently, our method is limited by the numbers of GOSAT observations available. If sufficient numbers of satellite observations are available from a instrument like GOSAT, our method could be a useful tool for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions using the regression slope between modeled and observed anomalies as a correction factor for nationally reported emissions.

Sensitivity of air pollution simulations with LOTOS-EUROS to temporal distribution of anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mues, A.; Kuenen, J.; Hendriks, C.; Manders, A.; Segers, A.; Scholz, Y.; Hueglin, C.; Builtjes, P.; Schaap, M.

2013-07-01

In this study the sensitivity of the model performance of the chemistry transport model (CTM) LOTOS-EUROS to the description of the temporal variability of emissions was investigated. Currently the temporal release of anthropogenic emissions is described by European average diurnal, weekly and seasonal time profiles per sector. These default time profiles largely neglect the variation of emission strength with activity patterns, region, species, emission process and meteorology. The three sources dealt with in this study are combustion in energy and transformation industries (SNAP1), non-industrial combustion (SNAP2) and road transport (SNAP7). First the impact of neglecting the temporal emission profiles for these SNAP categories on simulated concentrations was explored. In a~second step, we constructed more detailed emission time profiles for the three categories and quantified their impact on the model performance separately as well as combined. The performance in comparison to observations for Germany was quantified for the pollutants NO2, SO2 and PM10 and compared to a simulation using the default LOTOS-EUROS emission time profiles. In general the largest impact on the model performance was found when neglecting the default time profiles for the three categories. The daily average correlation coefficient for instance decreased by 0.04 (NO2), 0.11 (SO2) and 0.01 (PM10) at German urban background stations compared to the default simulation. A systematic increase of the correlation coefficient is found when using the new time profiles. The size of the increase depends on the source category, the component and station. Using national profiles for road transport showed important improvements of the explained variability over the weekdays as well as the diurnal cycle for NO2. The largest impact of the SNAP1 and 2 profiles were found for SO2. When using all new time profiles simultaneously in one simulation the daily average correlation coefficient increased by 0.05 (NO2), 0.07 (SO2) and 0.03 (PM10) at urban background stations in Germany. This exercise showed that to improve the performance of a CTM a better representation of the distribution of anthropogenic emission in time is recommendable. This can be done by developing a dynamical emission model which takes into account regional specific factors and meteorology.

Emission-line diagnostics of nearby H II regions including interacting binary populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Lin; Stanway, Elizabeth R.; Eldridge, J. J.

2018-06-01

We present numerical models of the nebular emission from H II regions around young stellar populations over a range of compositions and ages. The synthetic stellar populations include both single stars and interacting binary stars. We compare these models to the observed emission lines of 254 H II regions of 13 nearby spiral galaxies and 21 dwarf galaxies drawn from archival data. The models are created using the combination of the BPASS (Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis) code with the photoionization code CLOUDY to study the differences caused by the inclusion of interacting binary stars in the stellar population. We obtain agreement with the observed emission line ratios from the nearby star-forming regions and discuss the effect of binary-star evolution pathways on the nebular ionization of H II regions. We find that at population ages above 10 Myr, single-star models rapidly decrease in flux and ionization strength, while binary-star models still produce strong flux and high [O III]/H β ratios. Our models can reproduce the metallicity of H II regions from spiral galaxies, but we find higher metallicities than previously estimated for the H II regions from dwarf galaxies. Comparing the equivalent width of H β emission between models and observations, we find that accounting for ionizing photon leakage can affect age estimates for H II regions. When it is included, the typical age derived for H II regions is 5 Myr from single-star models, and up to 10 Myr with binary-star models. This is due to the existence of binary-star evolution pathways, which produce more hot Wolf-Rayet and helium stars at older ages. For future reference, we calculate new BPASS binary maximal starburst lines as a function of metallicity, and for the total model population, and present these in Appendix A.

A synthesis of growing-season, non-growing season, and annual methane emission measurements among temperate, boreal, and tundra wetlands and uplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Treat, C. C.; Bloom, A. A.; Marushchak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane to the atmosphere, while upland soils are a consistent sink of atmospheric methane. Wetland methane emissions are highly variable among sites, years, and temporal scales due to differences in production, oxidation, and transport pathways. Currently, process model predictions of methane emissions from wetlands remain challenging due to uncertain parameterizations of net methane production and emission processes. Here, we synthesize growing season, non-growing season, and annual methane emissions from chamber and eddy-covariance measurements for more than 150 sites in undisturbed temperate, boreal, and tundra wetlands and uplands. We compare the magnitude of fluxes among regions, wetland classifications, vegetation classifications, and environmental variables. Growing season measurements were most abundant in bogs, fens, and tundra sites, while marshes and swamps were relatively undersampled. Annual methane emissions were largest from marshes and lowest from upland mineral soils. Non-growing season emissions accounted for large fraction of annual methane emissions, especially in tundra sites. These results provide constraints for methane emissions from temporal, boreal, and arctic wetlands utilizing the numerous flux measurements conducted over the past 25 years. We find that state-of-the-art model ensembles are seasonally biased; in particular, the vast majority of models overestimate predictions of the growing season to annual wetland methane emission ratio across all biomes.

Understanding Methane Emission from Natural Gas Activities Using Inverse Modeling Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdioskouei, M.; Carmichael, G. R.

2015-12-01

Natural gas (NG) has been promoted as a bridge fuel that can smooth the transition from fossil fuels to zero carbon energy sources by having lower carbon dioxide emission and lower global warming impacts in comparison to other fossil fuels. However, the uncertainty around the estimations of methane emissions from NG systems can lead to underestimation of climate and environmental impacts of using NG as a replacement for coal. Accurate estimates of methane emissions from NG operations is crucial for evaluation of environmental impacts of NG extraction and at larger scale, adoption of NG as transitional fuel. However there is a great inconsistency within the current estimates. Forward simulation of methane from oil and gas operation sites for the US is carried out based on NEI-2011 using the WRF-Chem model. Simulated values are compared against measurements of observations from different platforms such as airborne (FRAPPÉ field campaign) and ground-based measurements (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory). A novel inverse modeling technique is used in this work to improve the model fit to the observation values and to constrain methane emission from oil and gas extraction sites.

Simulating Electron Cyclotron Maser Emission for Low Mass Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llama, Joe; Jardine, Moira

2018-01-01

Zeeman-Doppler Imaging (ZDI) is a powerful technique that enables us to map the large-scale magnetic fields of stars spanning the pre- and main-sequence. Coupling these magnetic maps with field extrapolation methods allow us to investigate the topology of the closed, X-ray bright corona, and the cooler, open stellar wind.Using ZDI maps of young M dwarfs with simultaneous radio light curves obtained from the VLA, we present the results of modeling the Electron-Cyclotron Maser (ECM) emission from these systems. We determine the X-ray luminosity and ECM emission that is produced using the ZDI maps and our field extrapolation model. We compare these findings with the observed radio light curves of these stars. This allows us to predict the relative phasing and amplitude of the stellar X-ray and radio light curves.This benchmarking of our model using these systems allows us to predict the ECM emission for all stars that have a ZDI map and an observed X-ray luminosity. Our model allows us to understand the origin of transient radio emission observations and is crucial for disentangling stellar and exoplanetary radio signals.

A soft X-ray map of the Perseus cluster of galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cash, W.; Malina, R. F.; Wolff, R. S.

1976-01-01

A 0.5-3-keV X-ray map of the Perseus cluster of galaxies is presented. The map shows a region of strong emission centered near NGC 1275 plus a highly elongated emission region which lies along the line of bright galaxies that dominates the core of the cluster. The data are compared with various models that include point and diffuse sources. One model which adequately represents the data is the superposition of a point source at NGC 1275 and an isothermal ellipsoid resulting from the bremsstrahlung emission of cluster gas. The ellipsoid has a major core radius of 20.5 arcmin and a minor core radius of 5.5 arcmin, consistent with the values obtained from galaxy counts. All acceptable models provide evidence for a compact source (less than 3 arcmin FWHM) at NGC 1275 containing about 25% of the total emission. Since the diffuse X-ray and radio components have radically different morphologies, it is unlikely that the emissions arise from a common source, as proposed in inverse-Compton models.

Modeling emission rates and exposures from outdoor cooking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Rufus; Princevac, Marko; Weltman, Robert; Ghasemian, Masoud; Arora, Narendra K.; Bond, Tami

2017-09-01

Approximately 3 billion individuals rely on solid fuels for cooking globally. For a large portion of these - an estimated 533 million - cooking is outdoors, where emissions from cookstoves pose a health risk to both cooks and other household and village members. Models that estimate emissions rates from stoves in indoor environments that would meet WHO air quality guidelines (AQG), explicitly don't account for outdoor cooking. The objectives of this paper are to link health based exposure guidelines with emissions from outdoor cookstoves, using a Monte Carlo simulation of cooking times from Haryana India coupled with inverse Gaussian dispersion models. Mean emission rates for outdoor cooking that would result in incremental increases in personal exposure equivalent to the WHO AQG during a 24-h period were 126 ± 13 mg/min for cooking while squatting and 99 ± 10 mg/min while standing. Emission rates modeled for outdoor cooking are substantially higher than emission rates for indoor cooking to meet AQG, because the models estimate impact of emissions on personal exposure concentrations rather than microenvironment concentrations, and because the smoke disperses more readily outdoors compared to indoor environments. As a result, many more stoves including the best performing solid-fuel biomass stoves would meet AQG when cooking outdoors, but may also result in substantial localized neighborhood pollution depending on housing density. Inclusion of the neighborhood impact of pollution should be addressed more formally both in guidelines on emissions rates from stoves that would be protective of health, and also in wider health impact evaluation efforts and burden of disease estimates. Emissions guidelines should better represent the different contexts in which stoves are being used, especially because in these contexts the best performing solid fuel stoves have the potential to provide significant benefits.

Simulations of aerosol constituents and their sources of origin over Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) to Himalayan foothills: a new perspective of GCM estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, B. D.; Verma, S.; Wang, R.; Boucher, O.

2016-12-01

In the present study, we evaluated aerosol constituents of the model using the measurements during premonsoon over Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) to Himalayan foothills. Aerosol transport simulations were carried out in general circulation model (GCM) of Laboratoire de M ´et ´eorologie Dynamique (LMD-GCM) with three set of emissions including Indian emissions in GCM-Indemiss, global emissions in GCM coupled with aerosol interactive chemistry (GCM-INCA-I), and the global emissions with updated BC emission inventory over Asia in GCM-INCA-II. Among three models, GCM-indemiss reproduced measured single scattering albedo (SSA) at 670 nm with a relative bias of 5%. However, the estimated 30-50% of the measured aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm and 20-60% of the measured surface concentration of aerosol constituents (e.g. black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate) at most of the times over the study period. Inability of model to reproduce observed AOD changes was attributed to the paucity of emissions represented in the model. Design of retrieval simulations using existing GCM-indemiss estimates was further carried out. Retrieval simulations have produced better results, which showed constituent surface concentration in the vicinity of the measurements with normalized mean bias (NMB) of <30%. Scatter analysis between surface and elevated contribution of region's emissions showed anthropogenic emissions from the IGP on anthropogenic days and the north west India (NWI) on anthropogenic with dust days influence aerosols over northern India (NI). Our analysis showed BC emissions from base inventory for the corresponding grids of source region influencing NI were lower by 200% compared to that of modified scenario. These emissions will further be implemented in an atmospheric GCM to evaluate their performance validating with measurements data.

Refined Use of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Snapshots to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions in the GOCART Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrenko, Mariya; Kahn, Ralph; Chin, Mian; Limbacher, James

2017-01-01

Simulations of biomass burning (BB) emissions in global chemistry and aerosol transport models depend on external inventories, which provide location and strength of burning aerosol sources. Our previous work (Petrenko et al., 2012) shows that satellite snapshots of aerosol optical depth (AOD) near the emitted smoke plume can be used to constrain model-simulated AOD, and effectively, the assumed source strength. We now refine the satellite-snapshot method and investigate applying simple multiplicative emission correction factors for the widely used Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFEDv3) emission inventory can achieve regional-scale consistency between MODIS AOD snapshots and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The model and satellite AOD are compared over a set of more than 900 BB cases observed by the MODIS instrument during the 2004, and 2006-2008 biomass burning seasons. The AOD comparison presented here shows that regional discrepancies between the model and satellite are diverse around the globe yet quite consistent within most ecosystems. Additional analysis of including small fire emission correction shows the complimentary nature of correcting for source strength and adding missing sources, and also indicates that in some regions other factors may be significant in explaining model-satellite discrepancies. This work sets the stage for a larger intercomparison within the Aerosol Inter-comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) multi-model biomass burning experiment. We discuss here some of the other possible factors affecting the remaining discrepancies between model simulations and observations, but await comparisons with other AeroCom models to draw further conclusions.

The NLS-Based Nonlinear Grey Multivariate Model for Forecasting Pollutant Emissions in China.

PubMed

Pei, Ling-Ling; Li, Qin; Wang, Zheng-Xin

2018-03-08

The relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth has been a major research focus in environmental economics. To accurately estimate the nonlinear change law of China's pollutant discharge with economic growth, this study establishes a transformed nonlinear grey multivariable (TNGM (1, N )) model based on the nonlinear least square (NLS) method. The Gauss-Seidel iterative algorithm was used to solve the parameters of the TNGM (1, N ) model based on the NLS basic principle. This algorithm improves the precision of the model by continuous iteration and constantly approximating the optimal regression coefficient of the nonlinear model. In our empirical analysis, the traditional grey multivariate model GM (1, N ) and the NLS-based TNGM (1, N ) models were respectively adopted to forecast and analyze the relationship among wastewater discharge per capita (WDPC), and per capita emissions of SO₂ and dust, alongside GDP per capita in China during the period 1996-2015. Results indicated that the NLS algorithm is able to effectively help the grey multivariable model identify the nonlinear relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth. The results show that the NLS-based TNGM (1, N ) model presents greater precision when forecasting WDPC, SO₂ emissions and dust emissions per capita, compared to the traditional GM (1, N ) model; WDPC indicates a growing tendency aligned with the growth of GDP, while the per capita emissions of SO₂ and dust reduce accordingly.

Isoprene and monoterpene emissions in south-east Australia: comparison of a multi-layer canopy model with MEGAN and with atmospheric observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmerson, Kathryn M.; Cope, Martin E.; Galbally, Ian E.; Lee, Sunhee; Nelson, Peter F.

2018-05-01

One of the key challenges in atmospheric chemistry is to reduce the uncertainty of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emission estimates from vegetation to the atmosphere. In Australia, eucalypt trees are a primary source of biogenic emissions, but their contribution to Australian air sheds is poorly quantified. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) has performed poorly against Australian isoprene and monoterpene observations. Finding reasons for the MEGAN discrepancies and strengthening our understanding of biogenic emissions in this region is our focus. We compare MEGAN to the locally produced Australian Biogenic Canopy and Grass Emissions Model (ABCGEM), to identify the uncertainties associated with the emission estimates and the data requirements necessary to improve isoprene and monoterpene emissions estimates for the application of MEGAN in Australia. Previously unpublished, ABCGEM is applied as an online biogenic emissions inventory to model BVOCs in the air shed overlaying Sydney, Australia. The two models use the same meteorological inputs and chemical mechanism, but independent inputs of leaf area index (LAI), plant functional type (PFT) and emission factors. We find that LAI, a proxy for leaf biomass, has a small role in spatial, temporal and inter-model biogenic emission variability, particularly in urban areas for ABCGEM. After removing LAI as the source of the differences, we found large differences in the emission activity function for monoterpenes. In MEGAN monoterpenes are partially light dependent, reducing their dependence on temperature. In ABCGEM monoterpenes are not light dependent, meaning they continue to be emitted at high rates during hot summer days, and at night. When the light dependence of monoterpenes is switched off in MEGAN, night-time emissions increase by 90-100 % improving the comparison with observations, suggesting the possibility that monoterpenes emitted from Australian vegetation may not be as light dependent as vegetation globally. Targeted measurements of emissions from in situ Australian vegetation, particularly of the light dependence issue are critical to improving MEGAN for one of the world's major biogenic emitting regions.

A Comparative Study of Spectral Auroral Intensity Predictions From Multiple Electron Transport Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grubbs, Guy; Michell, Robert; Samara, Marilia; Hampton, Donald; Hecht, James; Solomon, Stanley; Jahn, Jorg-Micha

2018-01-01

It is important to routinely examine and update models used to predict auroral emissions resulting from precipitating electrons in Earth's magnetotail. These models are commonly used to invert spectral auroral ground-based images to infer characteristics about incident electron populations when in situ measurements are unavailable. In this work, we examine and compare auroral emission intensities predicted by three commonly used electron transport models using varying electron population characteristics. We then compare model predictions to same-volume in situ electron measurements and ground-based imaging to qualitatively examine modeling prediction error. Initial comparisons showed differences in predictions by the GLobal airglOW (GLOW) model and the other transport models examined. Chemical reaction rates and radiative rates in GLOW were updated using recent publications, and predictions showed better agreement with the other models and the same-volume data, stressing that these rates are important to consider when modeling auroral processes. Predictions by each model exhibit similar behavior for varying atmospheric constants, energies, and energy fluxes. Same-volume electron data and images are highly correlated with predictions by each model, showing that these models can be used to accurately derive electron characteristics and ionospheric parameters based solely on multispectral optical imaging data.

Inter-comparison of network measurements of non-methane organic compounds with model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Sheng-Po; Su, Yuan-Chang; Chiu, Ching-Jui; Lin, Ching-Ho; Chang, Julius S.; Chang, Chih-Chung; Wang, Jia-Lin

2015-12-01

Ambient levels of total non-methane organic carbons (NMOCs) at air quality stations (AQSs, called AQS NMOCs) are compared with the summed concentrations of 56 NMHCs obtained from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (called total PAMS). For mutual validation of the two networks, the total PAMS were compared with the AQS NMOCs at four sites on the island of Taiwan for the period 2007-2012. The inter-comparison of total PAMS and AQS NMOCs has been discussed previously, which reported that the total PAMS accounted for approximately 30% of the AQS NMOCs on average (Chen et al., 2014b). In this study, both the observed total PAMS and AQS NMOCs were further compared with the emissions and model simulations for mutual validation. A three-dimensional Eulerian air quality model was used to simulate total PAMS and total VOCs, which were then inter-compared with the observed total PAMS and AQS NMOCs, respectively. We found closely agreeing results between the observed and simulated total PAMS, affirming that the treatment of meteorology and VOC emissions in the model was sufficiently robust. Further, although the modeled VOC data agreed with the AQS NMOC observations for the sites in urban settings, a significant discrepancy existed for the industrial sites, particularly at the concentration spikes. Such a discrepancy was presumably attributed to high emissions of OVOCs from industrial complexes compounded by the lower sensitivity of AQS measurements for OVOCs compared with hydrocarbons. Consequently, using AQS NMOCs to represent ambient VOC levels should be limited to environments where the amounts of OVOCs are relatively small relative to total VOCs.

A two-step combination of top-down and bottom-up fire emission estimates at regional and global scales: strengths and main uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofiev, Mikhail; Soares, Joana; Kouznetsov, Rostislav; Vira, Julius; Prank, Marje

2016-04-01

Top-down emission estimation via inverse dispersion modelling is used for various problems, where bottom-up approaches are difficult or highly uncertain. One of such areas is the estimation of emission from wild-land fires. In combination with dispersion modelling, satellite and/or in-situ observations can, in principle, be used to efficiently constrain the emission values. This is the main strength of the approach: the a-priori values of the emission factors (based on laboratory studies) are refined for real-life situations using the inverse-modelling technique. However, the approach also has major uncertainties, which are illustrated here with a few examples of the Integrated System for wild-land Fires (IS4FIRES). IS4FIRES generates the smoke emission and injection profile from MODIS and SEVIRI active-fire radiative energy observations. The emission calculation includes two steps: (i) initial top-down calibration of emission factors via inverse dispersion problem solution that is made once using training dataset from the past, (ii) application of the obtained emission coefficients to individual-fire radiative energy observations, thus leading to bottom-up emission compilation. For such a procedure, the major classes of uncertainties include: (i) imperfect information on fires, (ii) simplifications in the fire description, (iii) inaccuracies in the smoke observations and modelling, (iv) inaccuracies of the inverse problem solution. Using examples of the fire seasons 2010 in Russia, 2012 in Eurasia, 2007 in Australia, etc, it is pointed out that the top-down system calibration performed for a limited number of comparatively moderate cases (often the best-observed ones) may lead to errors in application to extreme events. For instance, the total emission of 2010 Russian fires is likely to be over-estimated by up to 50% if the calibration is based on the season 2006 and fire description is simplified. Longer calibration period and more sophisticated parameterization (including the smoke injection model and distinguishing all relevant vegetation types) can improve the predictions. The other significant parameter, so far weakly addressed in fire emission inventories, is the size spectrum of the emitted aerosols. Direct size-resolving measurements showed, for instance, that smoke from smouldering fires has smaller particles as compares with smoke from flaming fires. Due to dependence of the smoke optical thickness on the size distribution, such variability can lead to significant changes in the top-down calibration step. Experiments with IS4FIRES-SILAM system manifested up to a factor of two difference in AOD, depending on the assumption on particle spectrum.

Chemistry of Volatile Organic Compounds in the Los Angeles basin: Nighttime Removal of Alkenes and Determination of Emission Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Gouw, J. A.; Gilman, J. B.; Kim, S.-W.; Lerner, B. M.; Isaacman-VanWertz, G.; McDonald, B. C.; Warneke, C.; Kuster, W. C.; Lefer, B. L.; Griffith, S. M.; Dusanter, S.; Stevens, P. S.; Stutz, J.

2017-11-01

We reanalyze a data set of hydrocarbons in ambient air obtained by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry at a surface site in Pasadena in the Los Angeles basin during the NOAA California Nexus study in 2010. The number of hydrocarbon compounds quantified from the chromatograms is expanded through the use of new peak-fitting data analysis software. We also reexamine hydrocarbon removal processes. For alkanes, small alkenes, and aromatics, the removal is determined by the reaction with hydroxyl (OH) radicals. For several highly reactive alkenes, the nighttime removal by ozone and nitrate (NO3) radicals is also significant. We discuss how this nighttime removal affects the determination of emission ratios versus carbon monoxide (CO) and show that previous estimates based on nighttime correlations with CO were too low. We analyze model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry model for hydrocarbons and radicals at the Pasadena location to evaluate our methods for determining emission ratios from the measurements. We find that our methods agree with the modeled emission ratios for the domain centered on Pasadena and that the modeled emission ratios vary by 23% across the wider South Coast basin. We compare the alkene emission ratios with published results from ambient measurements and from tunnel and dynamometer studies of motor vehicle emissions. We find that with few exceptions the composition of alkene emissions determined from the measurements in Pasadena closely resembles that of motor vehicle emissions.

Canopy Level Emissions of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) observed during 2007 from a Pinus taeda experimental plantation in Central North Carolina are compared with model estimates from MEGAN 2.1. Relaxed Eddy Accumulation (REA) estimates of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO) fluxes are a factor of 3-4 higher than model estimates. MEGAN2.1 monoterpene emission estimates were approximately a factor of two higher than REA flux measurements. MEGAN2.1 β-caryophyllene emission estimates were within 60% of growing season REA flux estimates, but were several times higher than REA fluxes during cooler, dormant season periods. The sum of other sesquiterpene emissions estimated by MEGAN2.1 was several times higher than REA estimates throughout the year. Model components are examined to understand these discrepancies. Summertime LAI (and therefore foliar biomass) is a factor of two higher than assumed in MEGAN for the Pinus taeda default. Increasing the canopy mean MBO emission factor from 0.35 to 1.0 mg m-2 hr-1 also reduces MEGAN2.1 vs flux differences. This increase is within current emission factor uncertainties. The algorithm within MEGAN which adjusts isoprene emission estimates as a function of the previous 24 hour’s temperatures and light seems to also improve seasonal MEGAN MBO correlation with REA fluxes. Including the effects of the previous 240 hours, however, seems to degrade temporal model correlation with fluxes. This paper describes an emission inventory and mod

On the potential of GHG emissions estimation by multi-species inverse modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerbig, Christoph; Boschetti, Fabio; Filges, Annette; Marshall, Julia; Koch, Frank-Thomas; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Nedelec, Philippe; Thouret, Valerie; Karstens, Ute

2016-04-01

Reducing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is one of the most important elements in mitigating climate change. However, as emission reporting is often incomplete or incorrect, there is a need to independently monitor the emissions. Despite this, in the case of CO2 one typically assumes that emissions from fossil fuel burning are well known, and only natural fluxes are constrained by atmospheric measurements via inverse modelling. On the other hand, species such as CO2, CH4, and CO often have common emission patterns, and thus share part of the uncertainties, both related to the prior knowledge of emissions, and to model-data mismatch error. We implemented the Lagrangian transport model STILT driven by ECMWF analysis and short-term forecast meteorological fields together with emission sector and fuel-type specific emissions of CO2, CH4 and CO from EDGARv4.3 at a spatial resolution of 0.1 x 0.1 deg., providing an atmospheric fingerprint of anthropogenic emissions for multiple trace gases. We combine the regional STILT simulations with lateral boundary conditions for CO2 and CO from MACC forecasts and CH4 from TM3 simulations. Here we apply this framework to airborne in-situ measurements made in the context of IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) and in the context of a HALO mission conducted for testing the active remote sensing system CHARM-F during April/May 2015 over central Europe. Simulated tracer distributions are compared to observed profiles of CO2, CH4, and CO, and the potential for a multi-species inversion using synergies between different tracers is assessed with respect to the uncertainty reduction in retrieved emission fluxes. Implications for inversions solving for anthropogenic emissions using atmospheric observations from ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observing System) are discussed.

Cost Benefit Analysis Modeling Tool for Electric vs. ICE Airport Ground Support Equipment – Development and Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

James Francfort; Kevin Morrow; Dimitri Hochard

2007-02-01

This report documents efforts to develop a computer tool for modeling the economic payback for comparative airport ground support equipment (GSE) that are propelled by either electric motors or gasoline and diesel engines. The types of GSE modeled are pushback tractors, baggage tractors, and belt loaders. The GSE modeling tool includes an emissions module that estimates the amount of tailpipe emissions saved by replacing internal combustion engine GSE with electric GSE. This report contains modeling assumptions, methodology, a user’s manual, and modeling results. The model was developed based on the operations of two airlines at four United States airports.

Effective emissivities of isothermal blackbody cavities calculated by the Monte Carlo method using the three-component bidirectional reflectance distribution function model.

PubMed

Prokhorov, Alexander

2012-05-01

This paper proposes a three-component bidirectional reflectance distribution function (3C BRDF) model consisting of diffuse, quasi-specular, and glossy components for calculation of effective emissivities of blackbody cavities and then investigates the properties of the new reflection model. The particle swarm optimization method is applied for fitting a 3C BRDF model to measured BRDFs. The model is incorporated into the Monte Carlo ray-tracing algorithm for isothermal cavities. Finally, the paper compares the results obtained using the 3C model and the conventional specular-diffuse model of reflection.

CFD Analysis of Emissions for a Candidate N+3 Combustor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ajmani, Kumud

2015-01-01

An effort was undertaken to analyze the performance of a model Lean-Direct Injection (LDI) combustor designed to meet emissions and performance goals for NASA's N+3 program. Computational predictions of Emissions Index (EINOx) and combustor exit temperature were obtained for operation at typical power conditions expected of a small-core, high pressure-ratio (greater than 50), high T3 inlet temperature (greater than 950K) N+3 combustor. Reacting-flow computations were performed with the National Combustion Code (NCC) for a model N+3 LDI combustor, which consisted of a nine-element LDI flame-tube derived from a previous generation (N+2) thirteen-element LDI design. A consistent approach to mesh-optimization, spraymodeling and kinetics-modeling was used, in order to leverage the lessons learned from previous N+2 flame-tube analysis with the NCC. The NCC predictions for the current, non-optimized N+3 combustor operating indicated a 74% increase in NOx emissions as compared to that of the emissions-optimized, parent N+2 LDI combustor.

Impact of forest fires on particulate matter and ozone levels during the 2003, 2004 and 2005 fire seasons in Portugal.

PubMed

Martins, V; Miranda, A I; Carvalho, A; Schaap, M; Borrego, C; Sá, E

2012-01-01

The main purpose of this work is to estimate the impact of forest fires on air pollution applying the LOTOS-EUROS air quality modeling system in Portugal for three consecutive years, 2003-2005. Forest fire emissions have been included in the modeling system through the development of a numerical module, which takes into account the most suitable parameters for Portuguese forest fire characteristics and the burnt area by large forest fires. To better evaluate the influence of forest fires on air quality the LOTOS-EUROS system has been applied with and without forest fire emissions. Hourly concentration results have been compared to measure data at several monitoring locations with better modeling quality parameters when forest fire emissions were considered. Moreover, hourly estimates, with and without fire emissions, can reach differences in the order of 20%, showing the importance and the influence of this type of emissions on air quality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the MIMOSA-AURORA-IFDM model chain for policy support: Modeling concentrations of elemental carbon in Flanders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefebvre, Wouter; Vercauteren, Jordy; Schrooten, Liesbeth; Janssen, Stijn; Degraeuwe, Bart; Maenhaut, Willy; de Vlieger, Ina; Vankerkom, Jean; Cosemans, Guido; Mensink, Clemens; Veldeman, Nele; Deutsch, Felix; Van Looy, Stijn; Peelaerts, Wim; Lefebre, Filip

2011-12-01

The ability of a complex model chain to simulate elemental carbon (EC) concentrations was examined. The results of the model chain were compared to EC concentration measurements made at several locations, every sixth day. Two measurement campaigns were taken into account, one in 2006-2007 and one in 2008-2009. The model results compare very well for both periods, with an R2 of 0.74, a bias of 0.02 μg m -3 and a RMSE of 0.32 μg m -3. Sensitivity analyses to different meteorology inputs and changing emissions from year to year were performed. The differences between the two measurement periods were also investigated. It is shown that somewhat more than half of these differences is due to meteorology. However, emission changes also play an important role.

Spatial analysis of toxic emissions in LCA: a sub-continental nested USEtox model with freshwater archetypes.

PubMed

Kounina, Anna; Margni, Manuele; Shaked, Shanna; Bulle, Cécile; Jolliet, Olivier

2014-08-01

This paper develops continent-specific factors for the USEtox model and analyses the accuracy of different model architectures, spatial scales and archetypes in evaluating toxic impacts, with a focus on freshwater pathways. Inter-continental variation is analysed by comparing chemical fate and intake fractions between sub-continental zones of two life cycle impact assessment models: (1) the nested USEtox model parameterized with sub-continental zones and (2) the spatially differentiated IMPACTWorld model with 17 interconnected sub-continental regions. Substance residence time in water varies by up to two orders of magnitude among the 17 zones assessed with IMPACTWorld and USEtox, and intake fraction varies by up to three orders of magnitude. Despite this variation, the nested USEtox model succeeds in mimicking the results of the spatially differentiated model, with the exception of very persistent volatile pollutants that can be transported to polar regions. Intra-continental variation is analysed by comparing fate and intake fractions modelled with the a-spatial (one box) IMPACT Europe continental model vs. the spatially differentiated version of the same model. Results show that the one box model might overestimate chemical fate and characterisation factors for freshwater eco-toxicity of persistent pollutants by up to three orders of magnitude for point source emissions. Subdividing Europe into three archetypes, based on freshwater residence time (how long it takes water to reach the sea), improves the prediction of fate and intake fractions for point source emissions, bringing them within a factor five compared to the spatial model. We demonstrated that a sub-continental nested model such as USEtox, with continent-specific parameterization complemented with freshwater archetypes, can thus represent inter- and intra-continental spatial variations, whilst minimizing model complexity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Quantum Band Model of the nu3 Fundamental of Methanol (CH3OH) and Its Application to Fluorcescence Spectra of Comets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Villanueva, Geronimo L.; DiSanti, M. A.; Mumma, M. J.; Xu, L.-H.

2012-01-01

Methanol (CH3OH) radiates efficiently at infrared wavelengths, dominating the C-H stretching region in comets, yet inadequate quantum-mechanical models have imposed limits on the practical use of its emission spectra. Accordingly, we constructed a new line-by-line model for the 3 fundamental band of methanol at 2844 / cm (3.52 micron) and applied it to interpret cometary fluorescence spectra. The new model permits accurate synthesis of line-by-line spectra for a wide range of rotational temperatures, ranging from 10 K to more than 400 K.We validated the model by comparing simulations of CH3OH fluorescent emission with measured spectra of three comets (C/2001 A2 LINEAR, C/2004 Q2 Machholz and 8P/Tuttle) acquired with high-resolution infrared spectrometers at high-altitude sites. The new model accurately describes the complex emission spectrum of the nu3 band, providing distinct rotational temperatures and production rates at greatly improved confidence levels compared with results derived from earlier fluorescence models. The new model reconciles production rates measured at infrared and radio wavelengths in C/2001 A2 (LINEAR). Methanol can now be quantified with unprecedented precision and accuracy in astrophysical sources through high-dispersion spectroscopy at infrared wavelengths

Infrared Emission from Kilonovae: The Case of the Nearby Short Hard Burst GRB 160821B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Lau, Ryan M.; Korobkin, Oleg

We present constraints on Ks-band emission from one of the nearest short hard gamma-ray bursts, GRB 160821B, at z = 0.16, at three epochs. We detect a red relativistic afterglow from the jetted emission in the first epoch but do not detect any excess kilonova emission in the second two epochs. We compare upper limits obtained with Keck I/MOSFIRE to multi-dimensional radiative transfer models of kilonovae, that employ composition-dependent nuclear heating and LTE opacities of heavy elements. We discuss eight models that combine toroidal dynamical ejecta and two types of wind and one model with dynamical ejecta only. We alsomore » discuss simple, empirical scaling laws of predicted emission as a function of ejecta mass and ejecta velocity. Our limits for GRB 160821B constrain the ejecta mass to be lower than 0.03 M {sub ⊙} for velocities greater than 0.1 c. At the distance sensitivity range of advanced LIGO, similar ground-based observations would be sufficiently sensitive to the full range of predicted model emission including models with only dynamical ejecta. The color evolution of these models shows that I – K color spans 7–16 mag, which suggests that even relatively shallow infrared searches for kilonovae could be as constraining as optical searches.« less

Infrared Emission from Kilonovae: The Case of the Nearby Short Hard Burst GRB 160821B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Korobkin, Oleg; Lau, Ryan M.

In this paper, we present constraints on Ks-band emission from one of the nearest short hard gamma-ray bursts, GRB 160821B, at z = 0.16, at three epochs. We detect a red relativistic afterglow from the jetted emission in the first epoch but do not detect any excess kilonova emission in the second two epochs. We compare upper limits obtained with Keck I/MOSFIRE to multi-dimensional radiative transfer models of kilonovae, that employ composition-dependent nuclear heating and LTE opacities of heavy elements. We discuss eight models that combine toroidal dynamical ejecta and two types of wind and one model with dynamical ejectamore » only. We also discuss simple, empirical scaling laws of predicted emission as a function of ejecta mass and ejecta velocity. Our limits for GRB 160821B constrain the ejecta mass to be lower than 0.03 M ⊙ for velocities greater than 0.1 c. At the distance sensitivity range of advanced LIGO, similar ground-based observations would be sufficiently sensitive to the full range of predicted model emission including models with only dynamical ejecta. Finally, the color evolution of these models shows that I–K color spans 7–16 mag, which suggests that even relatively shallow infrared searches for kilonovae could be as constraining as optical searches.« less

Infrared Emission from Kilonovae: The Case of the Nearby Short Hard Burst GRB 160821B

DOE PAGES

Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Korobkin, Oleg; Lau, Ryan M.; ...

2017-07-12

In this paper, we present constraints on Ks-band emission from one of the nearest short hard gamma-ray bursts, GRB 160821B, at z = 0.16, at three epochs. We detect a red relativistic afterglow from the jetted emission in the first epoch but do not detect any excess kilonova emission in the second two epochs. We compare upper limits obtained with Keck I/MOSFIRE to multi-dimensional radiative transfer models of kilonovae, that employ composition-dependent nuclear heating and LTE opacities of heavy elements. We discuss eight models that combine toroidal dynamical ejecta and two types of wind and one model with dynamical ejectamore » only. We also discuss simple, empirical scaling laws of predicted emission as a function of ejecta mass and ejecta velocity. Our limits for GRB 160821B constrain the ejecta mass to be lower than 0.03 M ⊙ for velocities greater than 0.1 c. At the distance sensitivity range of advanced LIGO, similar ground-based observations would be sufficiently sensitive to the full range of predicted model emission including models with only dynamical ejecta. Finally, the color evolution of these models shows that I–K color spans 7–16 mag, which suggests that even relatively shallow infrared searches for kilonovae could be as constraining as optical searches.« less

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

PubMed

Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

Air quality benefits of universal particle filter and NOx controls on diesel trucks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, L.; Mcdonald, B. C.; Harley, R.

2015-12-01

Heavy-duty diesel trucks are a major source of black carbon/particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions on urban and regional scales. These emissions are relevant to both air quality and climate change. Since 2010 in the US, new engines are required to be equipped with emission control systems that greatly reduce both PM and NOx emissions, by ~98% relative to 1988 levels. To reduce emissions from the legacy fleet of older trucks that still remain on the road, regulations have been adopted in Califonia to accelerate the replacement of older trucks and thereby reduce associated emissions of PM and NOx. Use of diesel particle filters will be widespread by 2016, and universal use of catalytic converters for NOx control is required by 2023. We assess the air quality consequences of this clean-up effort in Southern California, using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ), and comparing three scenarios: historical (2005), present day (2016), and future year (2023). Emissions from the motor vehicle sector are mapped at high spatial resolution based on traffic count and fuel sales data. NOx emissions from diesel engines in 2023 are expected to decrease by ~80% compared to 2005, while the fraction of NOx emitted as NO2 is expected to increase from 5 to 18%. Air quality model simulations will be analyzed to quantify changes in NO2, black carbon, particulate matter, and ozone, both basin-wide and near hot spots such as ports and major highways.

Comparing emission rates derived from a model with a plume-based approach and quantifying the contribution of vehicle classes to on-road emissions and air quality.

PubMed

Xu, Junshi; Wang, Jonathan; Hilker, Nathan; Fallah-Shorshani, Masoud; Saleh, Marc; Tu, Ran; Wang, An; Minet, Laura; Stogios, Christos; Evans, Greg; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

2018-06-05

This study presents a comparison of fleet averaged emission factors (EFs) derived from a traffic emission model with EFs estimated using plume-based measurements, including an investigation of the contribution of vehicle classes to carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and elemental carbon (EC) along an urban corridor. To this end, a field campaign was conducted over one week in June 2016 on an arterial road in Toronto, Canada. Traffic data were collected using a traffic camera and a radar, while air quality was characterized using two monitoring stations: one located at ground-level and another at the rooftop of a four-storey building. A traffic simulation model was calibrated and validated and sec-by-sec speed profiles for all vehicle trajectories were extracted to model emissions. In addition, dispersion modelling was conducted to identify the extent to which differences in emissions translate to differences in near-road concentrations. Our results indicate that modelled EFs for CO and NO x are twice as high as plume-based EFs. Besides, modelled results indicate that transit bus emissions accounted for 60% and 70% of the total emissions of NO x and EC. Transit bus emission rates in g/passenger.km for NO x and EC were up to 8 and 22 times the emission rates of passenger cars. In contrast, the Toronto streetcars, which are electrically fuelled, were found to improve near-road air quality despite their negative impact on traffic speeds. Finally, we observe that the difference in estimated concentrations derived from the two methods is not as large as the difference in estimated emissions due to the influence of meteorology and of the urban background given that the study network is located in a busy downtown area. Implications This study presents a comparison of fleet averaged emission factors (EFs) derived from a traffic emission model with EFs estimated using plume-based measurements, including an investigation of the contribution of vehicle classes to various pollutants. Besides, dispersion modelling was conducted to identify the extent to which differences in emissions translate to differences in near-road concentrations. We observe that the difference in estimated concentrations derived from the two methods is not as large as the difference in estimated emissions due to the influence of meteorology and of the urban background as the study network is located in a busy downtown area.

Ultra-High Rate Measurements of Spent Fuel Gamma-Ray Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Douglas; Vandevender, Brent; Wood, Lynn; Glasgow, Brian; Taubman, Matthew; Wright, Michael; Dion, Michael; Pitts, Karl; Runkle, Robert; Campbell, Luke; Fast, James

2014-03-01

Presently there are over 200,000 irradiated spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in the world, each containing a concerning amount of weapons-usable material. Both facility operators and safeguards inspectors want to improve composition determination. Current measurements are expensive and difficult so new methods are developed through models. Passive measurements are limited since a few specific decay products and the associated down-scatter overwhelm the gamma rays of interest. Active interrogation methods produce gamma rays beyond 3 MeV, minimizing the impact of the passive emissions that drop off sharply above this energy. New devices like the Ultra-High Rate Germanium (UHRGe) detector are being developed to advance these novel measurement methods. Designed for reasonable resolution at 106 s-1 output rates (compared to ~ 1 - 10 e 3 s-1 standards), SNF samples were directly measured using UHRGe and compared to models. Model verification further enables using Los Alamos National Laboratory SNF assembly models, developed under the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative, to determine emission and signal expectations. Measurement results and future application requirements for UHRGe will be discussed.

Global emissions of PM10 and PM2.5 from agricultural tillage and harvesting operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Tong, D.; Lee, P.

2014-12-01

Soil particles emitted during agricultural activities is a major recurring source contributing to atmospheric aerosol loading. Emission inventories of agricultural dust emissions have been compiled in several regions. These inventories, compiled based on historic survey and activity data, may reflect the current emission strengths that introduce large uncertainties when they are used to drive chemical transport models. In addition, there is no global emission inventory of agricultural dust emissions required to support global air quality and climate modeling. In this study, we present our recent efforts to develop a global emission inventory of PM10 and PM2.5 released from field tillage and harvesting operations using an emission factors-based approach. Both major crops (e.g., wheat and corn) and forage production were considered. For each crop or forage, information of crop area, crop calendar, farming activities and emission factors of specified operations were assembled. The key issue of inventory compilation is the choice of suitable emission factors for specified operations over different parts of the world. Through careful review of published emission factors, we modified the traditional emission factor-based model by multiplying correction coefficient factors to reflect the relationship between emission factors, soil texture, and climate conditions. Then, the temporal (i.e., monthly) and spatial (i.e., 0.5º resolution) distribution of agricultural PM10 and PM2.5 emissions from each and all operations were estimated for each crop or forage. Finally, the emissions from individual crops were aggregated to assemble a global inventory from agricultural operations. The inventory was verified by comparing the new data with the existing agricultural fugitive dust inventory in North America and Europe, as well as satellite observations of anthropogenic agricultural dust emissions.

Size resolved ultrafine particles emission model--a continues size distribution approach.

PubMed

Nikolova, Irina; Janssen, Stijn; Vrancken, Karl; Vos, Peter; Mishra, Vinit; Berghmans, Patrick

2011-08-15

A new parameterization for size resolved ultrafine particles (UFP) traffic emissions is proposed based on the results of PARTICULATES project (Samaras et al., 2005). It includes the emission factors from the Emission Inventory Guidebook (2006) (total number of particles, #/km/veh), the shape of the corresponding particle size distribution given in PARTICULATES and data for the traffic activity. The output of the model UFPEM (UltraFine Particle Emission Model) is a sum of continuous distributions of ultrafine particles emissions per vehicle type (passenger cars and heavy duty vehicles), fuel (petrol and diesel) and average speed representative for urban, rural and highway driving. The results from the parameterization are compared with measured total number of ultrafine particles and size distributions in a tunnel in Antwerp (Belgium). The measured UFP concentration over the entire campaign shows a close relation to the traffic activity. The modelled concentration is found to be lower than the measured in the campaign. The average emission factor from the measurement is 4.29E+14 #/km/veh whereas the calculated is around 30% lower. A comparison of emission factors with literature is done as well and in overall a good agreement is found. For the size distributions it is found that the measured distributions consist of three modes--Nucleation, Aitken and accumulation and most of the ultrafine particles belong to the Nucleation and the Aitken modes. The modelled Aitken mode (peak around 0.04-0.05 μm) is found in a good agreement both as amplitude of the peak and the number of particles whereas the modelled Nucleation mode is shifted to smaller diameters and the peak is much lower that the observed. Time scale analysis shows that at 300 m in the tunnel coagulation and deposition are slow and therefore neglected. The UFPEM emission model can be used as a source term in dispersion models. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Speed Profiles for Improvement of Maritime Emission Estimation

PubMed Central

Yau, Pui Shan; Lee, Shun-Cheng; Ho, Kin Fai

2012-01-01

Abstract Maritime emissions play an important role in anthropogenic emissions, particularly for cities with busy ports such as Hong Kong. Ship emissions are strongly dependent on vessel speed, and thus accurate vessel speed is essential for maritime emission studies. In this study, we determined minute-by-minute high-resolution speed profiles of container ships on four major routes in Hong Kong waters using Automatic Identification System (AIS). The activity-based ship emissions of NOx, CO, HC, CO2, SO2, and PM10 were estimated using derived vessel speed profiles, and results were compared with those using the speed limits of control zones. Estimation using speed limits resulted in up to twofold overestimation of ship emissions. Compared with emissions estimated using the speed limits of control zones, emissions estimated using vessel speed profiles could provide results with up to 88% higher accuracy. Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis of the model demonstrated the significance of improvement of vessel speed resolution. From spatial analysis, it is revealed that SO2 and PM10 emissions during maneuvering within 1 nautical mile from port were the highest. They contributed 7%–22% of SO2 emissions and 8%–17% of PM10 emissions of the entire voyage in Hong Kong. PMID:23236250

Applying an Inverse Model to Estimate Ammonia Emissions at Cattle Feedlots Using Three Different Observation-Based Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shonkwiler, K. B.; Ham, J. M.; Nash, C.

2014-12-01

Accurately quantifying emissions of ammonia (NH3) from confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) is vital not only to the livestock industry, but essential to understanding nitrogen cycling along the Front Range of Colorado, USA, where intensive agriculture, urban sprawl, and pristine ecosystems (e.g., Rocky Mtn Nat'l Park) lie within 100-km of each other. Most observation-based techniques for estimating NH3 emissions can be expensive and highly technical. Many methods rely on concentration observations on location, which implicitly depends on weather conditions. A system for sampling NH3 using on-site weather data was developed to allow remote measurement of NH3 in a simple, cost-effective way. These systems use passive diffusive cartridges (Radiello, Sigma-Aldrich) that provide time-averaged concentrations representative of a typical two-week deployment. Cartridge exposure is robotically managed so they are only visible when winds are 1.4 m/s or greater from the direction of the CAFO. These concentration data can be coupled with stability parameters (measured on-site) in a simple inverse model to estimate emissions (FIDES, UMR Environnement et Grandes Cultures). Few studies have directly compared emissions estimates of NH3 using concentration data obtained from multiple measurement systems at different temporal and spatial scales. Therefore, in the summer and autumn of 2014, several conditional sampler systems were deployed at a 25,000-head cattle feedlot concomitant with an open-path infrared laser (GasFinder2, Boreal Laser Inc.) and a Cavity Ring Down Spectrometer (CRDS) (G1103, Picarro Inc.) which each measured instantaneous NH3 concentrations. This study will test the sampler technology by first comparing concentration data from the three different methods. In livestock research, it is common to estimate NH3 emissions by using such instantaneous data in a backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLs) model (WindTrax, Thunder Beach Sci.) Considering this, NH3 fluxes from the inverse model (FIDES) using all three datasets will be compared to emissions from the bLS model (WindTrax) using only high speed data (laser; CRDS). Results may lend further validity to the conditional sampler approach for more easily and accurately monitoring NH3 fluxes from CAFOs and other strong areal sources.

Using a traffic simulation model (VISSIM) with an emissions model (MOVES) to predict emissions from vehicles on a limited-access highway.

PubMed

Abou-Senna, Hatem; Radwan, Essam; Westerlund, Kurt; Cooper, C David

2013-07-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that baseline global GHG emissions may increase 25-90% from 2000 to 2030, with carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions growing 40-110% over the same period. On-road vehicles are a major source of CO2 emissions in all the developed countries, and in many of the developing countries in the world. Similarly, several criteria air pollutants are associated with transportation, for example, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and particulate matter (PM). Therefore, the need to accurately quantify transportation-related emissions from vehicles is essential. The new US. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mobile source emissions model, MOVES2010a (MOVES), can estimate vehicle emissions on a second-by-second basis, creating the opportunity to combine a microscopic traffic simulation model (such as VISSIM) with MOVES to obtain accurate results. This paper presents an examination of four different approaches to capture the environmental impacts of vehicular operations on a 10-mile stretch of Interstate 4 (I-4), an urban limited-access highway in Orlando, FL. First (at the most basic level), emissions were estimated for the entire 10-mile section "by hand" using one average traffic volume and average speed. Then three advanced levels of detail were studied using VISSIM/MOVES to analyze smaller links: average speeds and volumes (AVG), second-by-second link drive schedules (LDS), and second-by-second operating mode distributions (OPMODE). This paper analyzes how the various approaches affect predicted emissions of CO, NO(x), PM2.5, PM10, and CO2. The results demonstrate that obtaining precise and comprehensive operating mode distributions on a second-by-second basis provides more accurate emission estimates. Specifically, emission rates are highly sensitive to stop-and-go traffic and the associated driving cycles of acceleration, deceleration, and idling. Using the AVG or LDS approach may overestimate or underestimate emissions, respectively, compared to an operating mode distribution approach. Transportation agencies and researchers in the past have estimated emissions using one average speed and volume on a long stretch of roadway. With MOVES, there is an opportunity for higher precision and accuracy. Integrating a microscopic traffic simulation model (such as VISSIM) with MOVES allows one to obtain precise and accurate emissions estimates. The proposed emission rate estimation process also can be extended to gridded emissions for ozone modeling, or to localized air quality dispersion modeling, where temporal and spatial resolution of emissions is essential to predict the concentration of pollutants near roadways.

Assessment of impact of unaccounted emission on ambient concentration using DEHM and AERMOD in combination with WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Awkash; Patil, Rashmi S.; Dikshit, Anil Kumar; Kumar, Rakesh; Brandt, Jørgen; Hertel, Ole

2016-10-01

The accuracy of the results from an air quality model is governed by the quality of emission and meteorological data inputs in most of the cases. In the present study, two air quality models were applied for inverse modelling to determine the particulate matter emission strengths of urban and regional sources in and around Mumbai in India. The study takes outset in an existing emission inventory for Total Suspended Particulate Matter (TSPM). Since it is known that the available TSPM inventory is uncertain and incomplete, this study will aim for qualifying this inventory through an inverse modelling exercise. For use as input to the air quality models in this study, onsite meteorological data has been generated using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional background concentration from regional sources is transported in the atmosphere from outside of the study domain. The regional background concentrations of particulate matter were obtained from model calculations with the Danish Eulerian Hemisphere Model (DEHM) for regional sources. The regional background concentrations obtained from DEHM were then used as boundary concentrations in AERMOD calculations of the contribution from local urban sources. The results from the AERMOD calculations were subsequently compared with observed concentrations and emission correction factors obtained by best fit of the model results to the observed concentrations. The study showed that emissions had to be up-scaled by between 14 and 55% in order to fit the observed concentrations; this is of course when assuming that the DEHM model describes the background concentration level of the right magnitude.

First Hours of the GW170817 Kilonova: Why So Blue?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2018-04-01

Now that the hubbub of GW170817 the first coincident detection of gravitational waves and an electromagnetic signature has died down, scientists are left with the task of taking the spectrum-spanning observations and piecing them together into a coherent picture. Researcher Iair Arcavi examines one particular question: what caused the blue color in the early hours of the neutron-star merger?Observations of the GW170817 kilonova by Hubble over a week-long span. [ESA/Hubble]Early ColorWhen the two neutron stars of GW170817 merged in August of last year, they produced not only gravitational waves, but a host of electromagnetic signatures. Chief among these was a flare of emission thought to be powered by the radioactive decay of heavy elements formed in the merger a kilonova.The emission during a kilonova can come from a number of different sources from the heavy-element-rich tidal tails of the disrupting neutron stars, or from fast, light polar jets, or from a wind or a disk outflow and each of these components could reveal different information about the original neutron stars and the merger.Its therefore important that we understand the sources of the emission that we observed in the GW170817 kilonova. In particular, wed like to know where the early blue emission came from that was spotted in the first hours of the kilonova.The combined ultravioletopticalinfrared light curve of the GW170817 kilonova. The rise in the emission occurs on roughly a day-long timescale. [Arcavi 2018]Comparing ModelsTo explore this question, Iair Arcavi (Einstein Fellow at University of California, Santa Barbara and Las Cumbres Observatory) compiled infrared through ultraviolet observations of the GW170817 kilonova from nearly 20 different telescopes. To try to distinguish between possible sources, Arcavi then compared the resulting combined light curves to a variety of models.Arcavi found that the light curves for the GW170817 kilonova indicate an initial 24-hour rise of emission. This rise is best matched by models in which the emission is produced by radioactive decay of ejecta with lots of heavier elements (likely from tidal tails). The subsequent decline of the emission, however, is fit as well or better by models that include lighter, faster outflows, or additional emission due to shock-heating from a wind or a cocoon surrounding a jet.Optical and ultraviolet light curves for the first 3 days after merger, as compared to four different emission models. Observations at earlier times, where the models differ more substantially, could provide stronger constraints for future mergers. [Arcavi 2018]Missing UltravioletThe takeaway from Arcavis work is that we cant yet eliminate any models for the GW170817 kilonovas early blue emission we simply dont have enough data.Why not? It turns out we had some bad luck with GW170817: a glitch in one of the detectors slowed down localization of the source, preventing earlier discovery of the kilonova. The net result was that the electromagnetic signal of this merger was only found 11 hours after the gravitational waves were detected and the ultraviolet signal was detected 4 hours after that, when the kilonova light curves are already decaying.If we had ultraviolet observations that tracked the earlier, rising emission, Arcavi argues, we would be able to differentiate between the different emission models for the kilonova. So while this may be the best we can do with GW170817, we can hope that with the next merger well have a full set of early observations allowing us to better understand where its emission comes from.CitationIair Arcavi 2018 ApJL 855 L23. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aab267

Near-rail yard air quality--assessment through field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Compared to truck transport, goods movement by rail produces generally lower air pollutant emissions (e.g., particulate matter, carbon dioxide) per ton of freight transported. Emissions associated with rail transport are also confined to rail corridors which may lower the risk of...

Nonthermal model for ultrafast laser-induced plasma generation around a plasmonic nanorod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labouret, Timothée; Palpant, Bruno

2016-12-01

The excitation of plasmonic gold nanoparticles by ultrashort laser pulses can trigger interesting electron-based effects in biological media such as production of reactive oxygen species or cell membrane optoporation. In order to better understand the optical and thermal processes at play, we modeled the interaction of a subpicosecond, near-infrared laser pulse with a gold nanorod in water. A nonthermal model is used and compared to a simple two-temperature thermal approach. For both models, the computation of the transient optical response reveals strong plasmon damping. Electron emission from the metal into the water is also calculated in a specific way for each model. The dynamics of the resulting local plasma in water is assessed by a rate equation model. While both approaches provide similar results for the transient optical properties, the simple thermal one is unable to properly describe electron emission and plasma generation. The latter is shown to mostly originate from electron-electron thermionic emission and photoemission from the metal. Taking into account the transient optical response is mandatory to properly calculate both electron emission and local plasma dynamics in water.

The Disk of 48 Lib Revealed by NPOI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lembryk, Ludwik; Tycner, C.; Sigut, A.; Zavala, R. T.

2013-01-01

We present a study of the disk around the Be star 48 Lib, where NLTE numerical disk models are being compared to the spectral and interferometric data to constrain the physical properties of the inner disk structure. The computational models are generated using the BEDISK code, which accounts for heating and cooling of various atoms in the disk and assumes solar chemical composition. A large set of self-consistent disk models produced with the BEDISK code is in turn used to generate synthetic spectra and images assuming a wide range of inclination angles using the BERAY code. The aim of this project is to constrain the physical properties as well as the inclination angles using both spectroscopic and interferometric data. The interferometric data were obtained using the Naval Precision Optical Interferometer (NPOI), with the focus on Hydrogen Balmer-alpha emission, which is the strongest emission line present due to the circumstellar structure. Because 48 Lib shows clear asymmetric spectral lines, we discuss how we model the asymmetric peaks of the Halpha line by combining two models computed with different density structures. The corresponding synthetic images of these combined density structures are then Fourier transformed and compared to the interferometric data. This numerical strategy has the potential to easily model the commonly observed variation of the ratio of the violet-to-red (V/R ratio) emission peaks and constrain the long-term variability associated with the disk of 48 Lib as well as other emission-line stars that show similar variability.

Comparison of GFED3, QFED2 and FEER1 Biomass Burning Emissions Datasets in a Global Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pan, Xiaohua; Ichoku, Charles; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, Mian; Ellison, Luke; da Silva, Arlindo; Darmenov, Anton

2015-01-01

Biomass burning contributes about 40% of the global loading of carbonaceous aerosols, significantly affecting air quality and the climate system by modulating solar radiation and cloud properties. However, fire emissions are poorly constrained in models on global and regional levels. In this study, we investigate 3 global biomass burning emission datasets in NASA GEOS5, namely: (1) GFEDv3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1); (2) QFEDv2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4); (3) FEERv1 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0). The simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD), absorption AOD (AAOD), angstrom exponent and surface concentrations of aerosol plumes dominated by fire emissions are evaluated and compared to MODIS, OMI, AERONET, and IMPROVE data over different regions. In general, the spatial patterns of biomass burning emissions from these inventories are similar, although the strength of the emissions can be noticeably different. The emissions estimates from QFED are generally larger than those of FEER, which are in turn larger than those of GFED. AOD simulated with all these 3 databases are lower than the corresponding observations in Southern Africa and South America, two of the major biomass burning regions in the world.

The challenge of modelling nitrogen management at the field scale: simulation and sensitivity analysis of N2O fluxes across nine experimental sites using DailyDayCent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitton, N.; Datta, A.; Hastings, A.; Kuhnert, M.; Topp, C. F. E.; Cloy, J. M.; Rees, R. M.; Cardenas, L. M.; Williams, J. R.; Smith, K.; Chadwick, D.; Smith, P.

2014-09-01

The United Kingdom currently reports nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture using the IPCC default Tier 1 methodology. However Tier 1 estimates have a large degree of uncertainty as they do not account for spatial variations in emissions. Therefore biogeochemical models such as DailyDayCent (DDC) are increasingly being used to provide a spatially disaggregated assessment of annual emissions. Prior to use, an assessment of the ability of the model to predict annual emissions should be undertaken, coupled with an analysis of how model inputs influence model outputs, and whether the modelled estimates are more robust that those derived from the Tier 1 methodology. The aims of the study were (a) to evaluate if the DailyDayCent model can accurately estimate annual N2O emissions across nine different experimental sites, (b) to examine its sensitivity to different soil and climate inputs across a number of experimental sites and (c) to examine the influence of uncertainty in the measured inputs on modelled N2O emissions. DailyDayCent performed well across the range of cropland and grassland sites, particularly for fertilized fields indicating that it is robust for UK conditions. The sensitivity of the model varied across the sites and also between fertilizer/manure treatments. Overall our results showed that there was a stronger correlation between the sensitivity of N2O emissions to changes in soil pH and clay content than the remaining input parameters used in this study. The lower the initial site values for soil pH and clay content, the more sensitive DDC was to changes from their initial value. When we compared modelled estimates with Tier 1 estimates for each site, we found that DailyDayCent provided a more accurate representation of the rate of annual emissions.

Application of the three-component bidirectional reflectance distribution function model to Monte Carlo calculation of spectral effective emissivities of nonisothermal blackbody cavities.

PubMed

Prokhorov, Alexander; Prokhorova, Nina I

2012-11-20

We applied the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model consisting of diffuse, quasi-specular, and glossy components to the Monte Carlo modeling of spectral effective emissivities for nonisothermal cavities. A method for extension of a monochromatic three-component (3C) BRDF model to a continuous spectral range is proposed. The initial data for this method are the BRDFs measured in the plane of incidence at a single wavelength and several incidence angles and directional-hemispherical reflectance measured at one incidence angle within a finite spectral range. We proposed the Monte Carlo algorithm for calculation of spectral effective emissivities for nonisothermal cavities whose internal surface is described by the wavelength-dependent 3C BRDF model. The results obtained for a cylindroconical nonisothermal cavity are discussed and compared with results obtained using the conventional specular-diffuse model.

Study of key factors influencing dust emission: An assessment of GEOS-Chem and DEAD simulations with observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Kevin S.

Mineral dust aerosols can impact air quality, climate change, biological cycles, tropical cyclone development and flight operations due to reduced visibility. Dust emissions are primarily limited to the extensive arid regions of the world, yet can negatively impact local to global scales, and are extremely complex to model accurately. Within this dissertation, the Dust Entrainment And Deposition (DEAD) model was adapted to run, for the first known time, using high temporal (hourly) and spatial (0.3°x0.3°) resolution data to methodically interrogate the key parameters and factors influencing global dust emissions. The dependence of dust emissions on key parameters under various conditions has been quantified and it has been shown that dust emissions within DEAD are largely determined by wind speeds, vegetation extent, soil moisture and topographic depressions. Important findings were that grid degradation from 0.3ºx0.3º to 1ºx1º, 2ºx2.5º, and 4°x5° of key meteorological, soil, and surface input parameters greatly reduced emissions approximately 13% and 29% and 64% respectively, as a result of the loss of sub grid detail within these key parameters at coarse grids. After running high resolution DEAD emissions globally for 2 years, two severe dust emission cases were chosen for an in-depth investigation of the root causes of the events and evaluation of the 2°x2.5° Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem and 0.3°x0.3° DEAD model capabilities to simulate the events: one over South West Asia (SWA) in June 2008 and the other over the Middle East in July 2009. The 2 year lack of rain over SWA preceding June 2008 with a 43% decrease in mean rainfall, yielded less than normal plant growth, a 28% increase in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), and a 24% decrease in Meteorological Aerodrome Report (METAR) observed visibility (VSBY) compared to average years. GEOS-Chem captured the observed higher AOD over SWA in June 2008. More detailed comparisons of GEOS-Chem predicted AOD and visibility over SWA with those observed at surface stations and from satellites revealed overall success of the model, although substantial regional differences exist. Within the extended drought, the study area was zoomed into the Middle East (ME) for July 2009 where multi-grid DEAD dust emissions using hourly CFSR meteorological input were compared with observations. The high resolution input yielded the best spatial and temporal dust patterns compared with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and METAR VSBY observations and definitively revealed Syria as a major dust source for the region. The coarse resolution dust emissions degraded or missed daily dust emissions entirely. This readily showed that the spatial scale degradation of the input data can significantly impair DEAD dust emissions and offers a strong argument for adapting higher resolution dust emission schemes into future global models for improvements of dust simulations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, R.; Barth, M. C.; Nair, V. S.

This study examines differences in the surface black carbon (BC) aerosol loading between the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS) and identifies dominant sources of BC in South Asia and surrounding regions during March–May 2006 (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, Gases and Radiation Budget, ICARB) period. A total of 13 BC tracers are introduced in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry to address these objectives. The model reproduced the temporal and spatial variability of BC distribution observed over the AS and the BoB during the ICARB ship cruise and captured spatial variability at the inlandmore » sites. In general, the model underestimates the observed BC mass concentrations. However, the model–observation discrepancy in this study is smaller compared to previous studies. Model results show that ICARB measurements were fairly well representative of the AS and the BoB during the pre-monsoon season. Elevated BC mass concentrations in the BoB are due to 5 times stronger influence of anthropogenic emissions on the BoB compared to the AS. Biomass burning in Burma also affects the BoB much more strongly than the AS. Results show that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, respectively, accounted for 60 and 37% of the average ± standard deviation (representing spatial and temporal variability) BC mass concentration (1341 ± 2353 ng m -3) in South Asia. BC emissions from residential (61%) and industrial (23%) sectors are the major anthropogenic sources, except in the Himalayas where vehicular emissions dominate. We find that regional-scale transport of anthropogenic emissions contributes up to 25% of BC mass concentrations in western and eastern India, suggesting that surface BC mass concentrations cannot be linked directly to the local emissions in different regions of South Asia.« less

Idle emissions from heavy-duty diesel and natural gas vehicles at high altitude.

PubMed

McCormick, R L; Graboski, M S; Alleman, T L; Yanowitz, J

2000-11-01

Idle emissions of total hydrocarbon (THC), CO, NOx, and particulate matter (PM) were measured from 24 heavy-duty diesel-fueled (12 trucks and 12 buses) and 4 heavy-duty compressed natural gas (CNG)-fueled vehicles. The volatile organic fraction (VOF) of PM and aldehyde emissions were also measured for many of the diesel vehicles. Experiments were conducted at 1609 m above sea level using a full exhaust flow dilution tunnel method identical to that used for heavy-duty engine Federal Test Procedure (FTP) testing. Diesel trucks averaged 0.170 g/min THC, 1.183 g/min CO, 1.416 g/min NOx, and 0.030 g/min PM. Diesel buses averaged 0.137 g/min THC, 1.326 g/min CO, 2.015 g/min NOx, and 0.048 g/min PM. Results are compared to idle emission factors from the MOBILE5 and PART5 inventory models. The models significantly (45-75%) overestimate emissions of THC and CO in comparison with results measured from the fleet of vehicles examined in this study. Measured NOx emissions were significantly higher (30-100%) than model predictions. For the pre-1999 (pre-consent decree) truck engines examined in this study, idle NOx emissions increased with model year with a linear fit (r2 = 0.6). PART5 nationwide fleet average emissions are within 1 order of magnitude of emissions for the group of vehicles tested in this study. Aldehyde emissions for bus idling averaged 6 mg/min. The VOF averaged 19% of total PM for buses and 49% for trucks. CNG vehicle idle emissions averaged 1.435 g/min for THC, 1.119 g/min for CO, 0.267 g/min for NOx, and 0.003 g/min for PM. The g/min PM emissions are only a small fraction of g/min PM emissions during vehicle driving. However, idle emissions of NOx, CO, and THC are significant in comparison with driving emissions.

Gridded emission inventory of short-chain chlorinated paraffins and its validation in China.

PubMed

Jiang, Wanyanhan; Huang, Tao; Mao, Xiaoxuan; Wang, Li; Zhao, Yuan; Jia, Chenhui; Wang, Yanan; Gao, Hong; Ma, Jianmin

2017-01-01

China produces approximately 20%-30% of the total global chlorinated paraffins (CPs). The establishment of a short-chain CP (SCCP) emission inventory is a significant step toward risk assessment and regulation of SCCPs in China and throughout the globe. This study developed a gridded SCCPs emission inventory with a 1/4° longitude by 1/4° latitude resolution from 2008 to 2012 for China, which was based on the total annual CPs emissions for the nation. The total national SCCPs emission during this 5-year period was 5651.5 tons. An additive in metal cutting fluids was a major emission source in China, contributing 2680.2 tons to the total atmospheric emissions of SCCPs from 2008 to 2012, followed by the production of CPs (2281.8 tons), plasticizers (514.3 tons), flame retardants (108.6 tons), and net import (66.6 tons). Most of these emission sources are located along the eastern seaboard of China and southern China. A coupled atmospheric transport model was employed to simulate environmental contamination by SCCPs using the gridded emission inventory of SCCPs from 2008 to 2012 as the model initial conditions. Simulated atmospheric and soil concentrations were compared with field monitoring data to validate the emission inventory. The results showed good consistency between modeled and field sampling data, supporting the reliability and credibility of the gridded SCCPs emission inventory that was developed in the present study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimates of CO2 traffic emissions from mobile concentration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maness, H. L.; Thurlow, M. E.; McDonald, B. C.; Harley, R. A.

2015-03-01

We present data from a new mobile system intended to aid in the design of upcoming urban CO2-monitoring networks. Our collected data include GPS probe data, video-derived traffic density, and accurate CO2 concentration measurements. The method described here is economical, scalable, and self-contained, allowing for potential future deployment in locations without existing traffic infrastructure or vehicle fleet information. Using a test data set collected on California Highway 24 over a 2 week period, we observe that on-road CO2 concentrations are elevated by a factor of 2 in congestion compared to free-flow conditions. This result is found to be consistent with a model including vehicle-induced turbulence and standard engine physics. In contrast to surface concentrations, surface emissions are found to be relatively insensitive to congestion. We next use our model for CO2 concentration together with our data to independently derive vehicle emission rate parameters. Parameters scaling the leading four emission rate terms are found to be within 25% of those expected for a typical passenger car fleet, enabling us to derive instantaneous emission rates directly from our data that compare generally favorably to predictive models presented in the literature. The present results highlight the importance of high spatial and temporal resolution traffic data for interpreting on- and near-road concentration measurements. Future work will focus on transport and the integration of mobile platforms into existing stationary network designs.

A new approach for monthly updates of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from space: Application to China and implications for air quality forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Wang, Jun; Xu, Xiaoguang; Henze, Daven K.; Wang, Yuxuan; Qu, Zhen

2016-09-01

SO2 emissions, the largest source of anthropogenic aerosols, can respond rapidly to economic and policy driven changes. However, bottom-up SO2 inventories have inherent limitations owing to 24-48 months latency and lack of month-to-month variation in emissions (especially in developing countries). This study develops a new approach that integrates Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) SO2 satellite measurements and GEOS-Chem adjoint model simulations to constrain monthly anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The approach's effectiveness is demonstrated for 14 months in East Asia; resultant posterior emissions not only capture a 20% SO2 emission reduction in Beijing during the 2008 Olympic Games but also improve agreement between modeled and in situ surface measurements. Further analysis reveals that posterior emissions estimates, compared to the prior, lead to significant improvements in forecasting monthly surface and columnar SO2. With the pending availability of geostationary measurements of tropospheric composition, we show that it may soon be possible to rapidly constrain SO2 emissions and associated air quality predictions at fine spatiotemporal scales.

Detection of critical PM2.5 emission sources and their contributions to a heavy haze episode in Beijing, China, using an adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Shixian; An, Xingqin; Zhao, Tianliang; Sun, Zhaobin; Wang, Wei; Hou, Qing; Guo, Zengyuan; Wang, Chao

2018-05-01

Air pollution sources and their regional transport are important issues for air quality control. The Global-Regional Assimilation and Prediction System coupled with the China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment (GRAPES-CUACE) aerosol adjoint model was applied to detect the sensitive primary emission sources of a haze episode in Beijing occurring between 19 and 21 November 2012. The high PM2.5 concentration peaks occurring at 05:00 and 23:00 LT (GMT+8) over Beijing on 21 November 2012 were set as the cost functions for the aerosol adjoint model. The critical emission regions of the first PM2.5 concentration peak were tracked to the west and south of Beijing, with 2 to 3 days of cumulative transport of air pollutants to Beijing. The critical emission regions of the second peak were mainly located to the south of Beijing, where southeasterly moist air transport led to the hygroscopic growth of particles and pollutant convergence in front of the Taihang Mountains during the daytime on 21 November. The temporal variations in the sensitivity coefficients for the two PM2.5 concentration peaks revealed that the response time of the onset of Beijing haze pollution from the local primary emissions is approximately 1-2 h and that from the surrounding primary emissions it is approximately 7-12 h. The upstream Hebei province has the largest impact on the two PM2.5 concentration peaks, and the contribution of emissions from Hebei province to the first PM2.5 concentration peak (43.6 %) is greater than that to the second PM2.5 concentration peak (41.5 %). The second most influential province for the 05:00 LT PM2.5 concentration peak is Beijing (31.2 %), followed by Shanxi (9.8 %), Tianjin (9.8 %), and Shandong (5.7 %). The second most influential province for the 23:00 LT PM2.5 concentration peak is Beijing (35.7 %), followed by Shanxi (8.1 %), Shandong (8.0 %), and Tianjin (6.7 %). The adjoint model results were compared with the forward sensitivity simulations of the Models-3/CMAQ system. The two modeling approaches are highly comparable in their assessments of atmospheric pollution control schemes for critical emission regions, but the adjoint method has higher computational efficiency than the forward sensitivity method. The results also imply that critical regional emission reduction could be more efficient than individual peak emission control for improving regional PM2.5 air quality.

Estimation of wetland methane emissions in a biogeochemical model integrated in CESM: sensitivity analysis and comparison against surface and atmospheric measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Mahowald, N. M.; Hess, P. G.; Yavitt, J. B.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.; Jauhiainen, J.; Fuka, D. R.

2012-12-01

Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al. 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations and thus we do not use CLM4 simulated inundated area. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993-2004 were 256 Tg CH4 y-1 (including the soil sink). Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 y-1, or 78% of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 y-1. Our sensitivity studies show a large range (150-346 Tg CH4 y-1) in predicted global methane emissions. In order to evaluate our methane emissions on the regional and global scales against atmospheric measurements, we conducted simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) forced with our baseline simulation of wetland and rice paddy emissions along with other methane sources (e.g. anthropogenic, fire, and termite emissions) and compared model simulations against measured atmospheric concentrations obtained from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) at http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/. Overall, using our estimated wetland and rice paddy emissions, CAM-chem model can produce seasonal and interannual variations of observed atmospheric concentration performs well. Thus, within the current level of uncertainty, our emissions appear to be reasonable.

Environmental assessment of biofuel pathways in Ile de France based on ecosystem modeling.

PubMed

Gabrielle, Benoît; Gagnaire, Nathalie; Massad, Raia Silvia; Dufossé, Karine; Bessou, Cécile

2014-01-01

The objective of the work reported here was to reduce the uncertainty on the greenhouse gas balances of biofuels using agro-ecosystem modeling at a high resolution over the Ile-de-France region in Northern France. The emissions simulated during the feedstock production stage were input to a life-cycle assessment of candidate biofuel pathways: bioethanol from wheat, sugar-beet and miscanthus, and biodiesel from oilseed rape. Compared to the widely-used methodology based on fixed emission factors, ecosystem modeling lead to 55-70% lower estimates for N2O emissions, emphasizing the importance of regional factors. The life-cycle GHG emissions of first-generation biofuels were 50-70% lower than fossil-based equivalents, and 85% lower for cellulosic ethanol. When including indirect land-use change effects, GHG savings became marginal for biodiesel and wheat ethanol, but were positive due to direct effects for cellulosic ethanol. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Ship Emissions on Marine Boundary Layer NO(x) and SO2 Distributions over the Pacific Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, D. D.; Grodzinsky, G.; Kasibhatla, P.; Crawford, J.; Chen, G.; Liu, S.; Bandy, A.; Thornton, D.; Guan, H.; Sandholm, S.

2001-01-01

The impact of ship emissions on marine boundary layer (MBL) NO(x) and SO2 levels over the Pacific Ocean has been explored by comparing predictions (with and without ships) from a global chemical transport model (GCTM) against compiled airborne observations of MBL NO(x) and SO2. For latitudes above 15 N, which define that part of the Pacific having the heaviest shipping, this analysis revealed significant model over prediction for NOx and a modest under prediction for SO2 when ship emissions were considered. Possible reasons for the difference in NO(x) and SO2 were explored using a full-chemistry box model. These results revealed that for an actual plume setting the NO(x) lifetime could be greatly shortened by chemical processes promoted by ship plume emissions themselves. Similar chemical behavior was not found for SO2.

ASSESSMENT OF MODELS OF GALACTIC THERMAL DUST EMISSION USING COBE /FIRAS AND COBE /DIRBE OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Odegard, N.; Kogut, A.; Miller, N. J.

2016-09-01

Accurate modeling of the spectrum of thermal dust emission at millimeter wavelengths is important for improving the accuracy of foreground subtraction for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, for improving the accuracy with which the contributions of different foreground emission components can be determined, and for improving our understanding of dust composition and dust physics. We fit four models of dust emission to high Galactic latitude COBE /FIRAS and COBE /DIRBE observations from 3 mm to 100 μ m and compare the quality of the fits. We consider the two-level systems (TLS) model because it provides a physically motivated explanation formore » the observed long wavelength flattening of the dust spectrum and the anti-correlation between emissivity index and dust temperature. We consider the model of Finkbeiner et al. because it has been widely used for CMB studies, and the generalized version of this model that was recently applied to Planck data by Meisner and Finkbeiner. For comparison we have also fit a phenomenological model consisting of the sum of two graybody components. We find that the two-graybody model gives the best fit and the FDS model gives a significantly poorer fit than the other models. The Meisner and Finkbeiner model and the TLS model remain viable for use in Galactic foreground subtraction, but the FIRAS data do not have a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio to provide a strong test of the predicted spectrum at millimeter wavelengths.« less

Ecological Controls on N2O Emission in Surface Litter and Near-surface Soil of a Managed Grassland: Modelling and Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Robert; Neftel, Albrecht; Calanca, Pierluigi

2016-04-01

Large variability in N2O emissions from managed grasslands may occur because most emissions originate in surface litter or near-surface soil where variability in soil water content (q) and temperature (Ts) is greatest. To determine whether temporal variability in q and Ts of surface litter and near-surface soil could explain that in N2O emissions, a simulation experiment was conducted with ecosys, a comprehensive mathematical model of terrestrial ecosystems in which processes governing N2O emissions were represented at high temporal and spatial resolution. Model performance was verified by comparing N2O emissions, CO2 and energy exchange, and q and Ts modelled by ecosys with those measured by automated chambers, eddy covariance (EC) and soil sensors at an hourly time-scale during several emission events from 2004 to 2009 in an intensively managed pasture at Oensingen, Switzerland. Both modelled and measured events were induced by precipitation following harvesting and subsequent fertilizing or manuring. These events were brief (2 - 5 days) with maximum N2O effluxes that varied from < 1 mg N m-2 h-1 in early spring and autumn to > 3 mg N m-2 h-1 in summer. Only very small emissions were modelled or measured outside these events. In the model, emissions were generated almost entirely in surface litter or near-surface (0 - 2 cm) soil, at rates driven by N availability with fertilization vs. N uptake with grassland regrowth, and by O2 limitation from wetting relative to O2 demand from respiration. In the model, NOx availability relative to O2 limitation governed both the reduction of more oxidized electron acceptors to N2O and the reduction of N2O to N2, so that the magnitude of N2O emissions was not simply related to surface and near-surface q and Ts. Modelled N2O emissions were found to be sensitive to defoliation intensity and timing (relative to that of fertilization) which controlled plant N uptake and soil q and Ts prior to and during emission events. In a model sensitivity study, reducing LAI remaining after defoliation to one-half that under current practice and delaying harvesting by 5 days raised N2O emissions by as much as 80% during subsequent events and by an average of 43% annually. The global warming potential from annual N2O emissions in this intensively managed grassland largely offset those from net C uptake in both modelled and field experiments. However model results indicated that this offset could be adversely affected by suboptimal harvest intensity and timing.

The sources of atmospheric black carbon at a European gateway to the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiger, P.; Andersson, A.; Eckhardt, S.; Stohl, A.; Gustafsson, Ö.

2016-09-01

Black carbon (BC) aerosols from incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuel contribute to Arctic climate warming. Models--seeking to advise mitigation policy--are challenged in reproducing observations of seasonally varying BC concentrations in the Arctic air. Here we compare year-round observations of BC and its δ13C/Δ14C-diagnosed sources in Arctic Scandinavia, with tailored simulations from an atmospheric transport model. The model predictions for this European gateway to the Arctic are greatly improved when the emission inventory of anthropogenic sources is amended by satellite-derived estimates of BC emissions from fires. Both BC concentrations (R2=0.89, P<0.05) and source contributions (R2=0.77, P<0.05) are accurately mimicked and linked to predominantly European emissions. This improved model skill allows for more accurate assessment of sources and effects of BC in the Arctic, and a more credible scientific underpinning of policy efforts aimed at efficiently reducing BC emissions reaching the European Arctic.

The 'Geographic Emission Benchmark' model: a baseline approach to measuring emissions associated with deforestation and degradation.

PubMed

Kim, Oh Seok; Newell, Joshua P

2015-10-01

This paper proposes a new land-change model, the Geographic Emission Benchmark (GEB), as an approach to quantify land-cover changes associated with deforestation and forest degradation. The GEB is designed to determine 'baseline' activity data for reference levels. Unlike other models that forecast business-as-usual future deforestation, the GEB internally (1) characterizes 'forest' and 'deforestation' with minimal processing and ground-truthing and (2) identifies 'deforestation hotspots' using open-source spatial methods to estimate regional rates of deforestation. The GEB also characterizes forest degradation and identifies leakage belts. This paper compares the accuracy of GEB with GEOMOD, a popular land-change model used in the UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) Program. Using a case study of the Chinese tropics for comparison, GEB's projection is more accurate than GEOMOD's, as measured by Figure of Merit. Thus, the GEB produces baseline activity data that are moderately accurate for the setting of reference levels.

Evaluation of an 18-year CMAQ simulation: Seasonal variations and long-term temporal changes in sulfate and nitrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civerolo, Kevin; Hogrefe, Christian; Zalewsky, Eric; Hao, Winston; Sistla, Gopal; Lynn, Barry; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Kinney, Patrick L.

2010-10-01

This paper compares spatial and seasonal variations and temporal trends in modeled and measured concentrations of sulfur and nitrogen compounds in wet and dry deposition over an 18-year period (1988-2005) over a portion of the northeastern United States. Substantial emissions reduction programs occurred over this time period, including Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 which primarily resulted in large decreases in sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions by 1995, and nitrogen oxide (NO x) trading programs which resulted in large decreases in warm season NO x emissions by 2004. Additionally, NO x emissions from mobile sources declined more gradually over this period. The results presented here illustrate the use of both operational and dynamic model evaluation and suggest that the modeling system largely captures the seasonal and long-term changes in sulfur compounds. The modeling system generally captures the long-term trends in nitrogen compounds, but does not reproduce the average seasonal variation or spatial patterns in nitrate.

THE ORIGIN OF THE HOT GAS IN THE GALACTIC HALO: TESTING GALACTIC FOUNTAIN MODELS' X-RAY EMISSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henley, David B.; Shelton, Robin L.; Kwak, Kyujin

2015-02-20

We test the X-ray emission predictions of galactic fountain models against XMM-Newton measurements of the emission from the Milky Way's hot halo. These measurements are from 110 sight lines, spanning the full range of Galactic longitudes. We find that a magnetohydrodynamical simulation of a supernova-driven interstellar medium, which features a flow of hot gas from the disk to the halo, reproduces the temperature but significantly underpredicts the 0.5-2.0 keV surface brightness of the halo (by two orders of magnitude, if we compare the median predicted and observed values). This is true for versions of the model with and without anmore » interstellar magnetic field. We consider different reasons for the discrepancy between the model predictions and the observations. We find that taking into account overionization in cooled halo plasma, which could in principle boost the predicted X-ray emission, is unlikely in practice to bring the predictions in line with the observations. We also find that including thermal conduction, which would tend to increase the surface brightnesses of interfaces between hot and cold gas, would not overcome the surface brightness shortfall. However, charge exchange emission from such interfaces, not included in the current model, may be significant. The faintness of the model may also be due to the lack of cosmic ray driving, meaning that the model may underestimate the amount of material transported from the disk to the halo. In addition, an extended hot halo of accreted material may be important, by supplying hot electrons that could boost the emission of the material driven out from the disk. Additional model predictions are needed to test the relative importance of these processes in explaining the observed halo emission.« less

The Origin of the Hot Gas in the Galactic Halo: Testing Galactic Fountain Models' X-Ray Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, David B.; Shelton, Robin L.; Kwak, Kyujin; Hill, Alex S.; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark

2015-02-01

We test the X-ray emission predictions of galactic fountain models against XMM-Newton measurements of the emission from the Milky Way's hot halo. These measurements are from 110 sight lines, spanning the full range of Galactic longitudes. We find that a magnetohydrodynamical simulation of a supernova-driven interstellar medium, which features a flow of hot gas from the disk to the halo, reproduces the temperature but significantly underpredicts the 0.5-2.0 keV surface brightness of the halo (by two orders of magnitude, if we compare the median predicted and observed values). This is true for versions of the model with and without an interstellar magnetic field. We consider different reasons for the discrepancy between the model predictions and the observations. We find that taking into account overionization in cooled halo plasma, which could in principle boost the predicted X-ray emission, is unlikely in practice to bring the predictions in line with the observations. We also find that including thermal conduction, which would tend to increase the surface brightnesses of interfaces between hot and cold gas, would not overcome the surface brightness shortfall. However, charge exchange emission from such interfaces, not included in the current model, may be significant. The faintness of the model may also be due to the lack of cosmic ray driving, meaning that the model may underestimate the amount of material transported from the disk to the halo. In addition, an extended hot halo of accreted material may be important, by supplying hot electrons that could boost the emission of the material driven out from the disk. Additional model predictions are needed to test the relative importance of these processes in explaining the observed halo emission.

Development of an on-line source-tagged model for sulfate, nitrate and ammonium: A modeling study for highly polluted periods in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wu, Jian-Bin; Wang, Zifa; Wang, Qian; Li, Jie; Xu, Jianming; Chen, HuanSheng; Ge, Baozhu; Zhou, Guangqiang; Chang, Luyu

2017-02-01

An on-line source-tagged model coupled with an air quality model (Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System, NAQPMS) was applied to estimate source contributions of primary and secondary sulfate, nitrate and ammonium (SNA) during a representative winter period in Shanghai. This source-tagged model system could simultaneously track spatial and temporal sources of SNA, which were apportioned to their respective primary precursors in a simulation run. The results indicate that in the study period, local emissions in Shanghai accounted for over 20% of SNA contributions and that Jiangsu and Shandong were the two major non-local sources. In particular, non-local emissions had higher contributions during recorded pollution periods. This suggests that the transportation of pollutants plays a key role in air pollution in Shanghai. The temporal contributions show that the emissions from the "current day" (emission contribution from the current day during which the model was simulating) contributed 60%-70% of the sulfate and ammonium concentrations but only 10%-20% of the nitrate concentration, while the previous days' contributions increased during the recorded pollution periods. Emissions that were released within three days contributed over 85% averagely for SNA in January 2013. To evaluate the source-tagged model system, the results were compared by sensitivity analysis (emission perturbation of -30%) and backward trajectory analysis. The consistency of the comparison results indicated that the source-tagged model system can track sources of SNA with reasonable accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using OCO-2 Observations and Lagrangian Modeling to Constrain Urban Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, E. G.; Kort, E. A.; Ware, J.; Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Wu, D.; Lin, J. C.; Oda, T.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are greatly perturbing the Earth's carbon cycle. Rising emissions from the developing world are increasing uncertainties in global CO2 emissions. With the rapid urbanization of developing regions, methods of constraining urban CO2 emissions in these areas can address critical uncertainties in the global carbon budget. In this study, we work toward constraining urban CO2 emissions in the Middle East by comparing top-down observations and bottom-up simulations of total column CO2 (XCO2) in four cities (Riyadh, Cairo, Baghdad, and Doha), both separately and in aggregate. This comparison involves quantifying the relationship for all available data in the period of September 2014 until March 2016 between observations of XCO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite and simulations of XCO2 using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model coupled with Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) reanalysis products and multiple CO2 emissions inventories. We discuss the extent to which our observation/model framework can distinguish between the different emissions representations and determine optimized emissions estimates for this domain. We also highlight the implications of our comparisons on the fidelity of the bottom-up inventories used, and how these implications may inform the use of OCO-2 data for urban regions around the world.

Energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in Iran, 2025

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirzaei, Maryam

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO{sub 2} emissions in 2025 will reach 985more » million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO{sub 2} emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO{sub 2} emission outlines. - Highlights: • Creation of an energy consumption model using system dynamics. • The effect of different policies on energy consumption and emission reductions. • An ascending trend for the environmental costs caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is observed. • An urgent need for energy saving and emission reductions in Iran.« less

Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Levis, S.; Lawrence, P. J.; Feddema, J. J.; Oleson, K. W.; Lawrence, D. M.

2010-01-01

Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite based estimates in terms of magnitude, spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Longterm trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtain substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997-2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000-2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we simulated a slight downward trend in global fire emissions, which is explained by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and partly by increasing fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend in the last three decades of the 20th century caused by climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO induced drought conditions.

Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Levis, S.; Lawrence, P. J.; Feddema, J. J.; Oleson, K. W.; Lawrence, D. M.

2010-06-01

Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997-2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000-2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO-induced drought conditions.

Soot and SO2 contribution to the supersites in the MILAGRO campaign from elevated flares in the Tula Refinery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almanza, V. H.; Molina, L. T.; Sosa, G.

2012-11-01

This work presents a simulation of the plume trajectory emitted by flaring activities of the Miguel Hidalgo Refinery in Mexico. The flame of a representative sour gas flare is modeled with a CFD combustion code in order to estimate emission rates of combustion by-products of interest for air quality: acetylene, ethylene, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, soot and sulfur dioxide. The emission rates of NO2 and SO2 were compared with measurements obtained at Tula as part of MILAGRO field campaign. The rates of soot, VOCs and CO emissions were compared with estimates obtained by Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo (IMP). The emission rates of these species were further included in WRF-Chem model to simulate the chemical transport of the plume from 22 to 27 March of 2006. The model presents reliable performance of the resolved meteorology, with respect to the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), mean bias (BIAS), vector RMSE and Index of Agreement (IOA). WRF-Chem outputs of SO2 and soot were compared with surface measurements obtained at the three supersites of MILAGRO campaign. The results suggest a contribution of Tula flaring activities to the total SO2 levels of 18% to 27% at the urban supersite (T0), and of 10% to 18% at the suburban supersite (T1). For soot, the model predicts low contribution at the three supersites, with less than 0.1% at three supersites. According to the model, the greatest contribution of both pollutants to the three supersites occurred on 23 March, which coincides with the third cold surge event reported during the campaign.

Unpolarized emissivity with shadow and multiple reflections from random rough surfaces with the geometric optics approximation: application to Gaussian sea surfaces in the infrared band.

PubMed

Bourlier, Christophe

2006-08-20

The emissivity from a stationary random rough surface is derived by taking into account the multiple reflections and the shadowing effect. The model is applied to the ocean surface. The geometric optics approximation is assumed to be valid, which means that the rough surface is modeled as a collection of facets reflecting locally the light in the specular direction. In particular, the emissivity with zero, single, and double reflections are analytically calculated, and each contribution is studied numerically by considering a 1D sea surface observed in the near infrared band. The model is also compared with results computed from a Monte Carlo ray-tracing method.

Improved Simulation of the Pre-equilibrium Triton Emission in Nuclear Reactions Induced by Nucleons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konobeyev, A. Yu.; Fischer, U.; Pereslavtsev, P. E.; Blann, M.

2014-04-01

A new approach is proposed for the calculation of non-equilibrium triton energy distributions in nuclear reactions induced by nucleons of intermediate energies. It combines models describing the nucleon pick-up, the coalescence and the triton knock-out processes. Emission and absorption rates for excited particles are represented by the pre-equilibrium hybrid model. The model of Sato, Iwamoto, Harada is used to describe the nucleon pick-up and the coalescence of nucleons from exciton configurations starting from (2p,1h) states. The contribution of the direct nucleon pick-up is described phenomenologically. Multiple pre-equilibrium emission of tritons is accounted for. The calculated triton energy distributions are compared with available experimental data.

Screening level risk assessment model for chemical fate and effects in the environment.

PubMed

Arnot, Jon A; Mackay, Don; Webster, Eva; Southwood, Jeanette M

2006-04-01

A screening level risk assessment model is developed and described to assess and prioritize chemicals by estimating environmental fate and transport, bioaccumulation, and exposure to humans and wildlife for a unit emission rate. The most sensitive risk endpoint is identified and a critical emission rate is then calculated as a result of that endpoint being reached. Finally, this estimated critical emission rate is compared with the estimated actual emission rate as a risk assessment factor. This "back-tracking" process avoids the use of highly uncertain emission rate data as model input. The application of the model is demonstrated in detail for three diverse chemicals and in less detail for a group of 70 chemicals drawn from the Canadian Domestic Substances List. The simple Level II and the more complex Level III fate calculations are used to "bin" substances into categories of similar probable risk. The essential role of the model is to synthesize information on chemical and environmental properties within a consistent mass balance framework to yield an overall estimate of screening level risk with respect to the defined endpoint. The approach may be useful to identify and prioritize those chemicals of commerce that are of greatest potential concern and require more comprehensive modeling and monitoring evaluations in actual regional environments and food webs.

β -delayed neutron emission from 85Ga

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miernik, K.; Rykaczewski, K. P.; Grzywacz, R.; Gross, C. J.; Madurga, M.; Miller, D.; Stracener, D. W.; Batchelder, J. C.; Brewer, N. T.; Korgul, A.; Mazzocchi, C.; Mendez, A. J.; Liu, Y.; Paulauskas, S. V.; Winger, J. A.; Wolińska-Cichocka, M.; Zganjar, E. F.

2018-05-01

Decay of 85Ga was studied by means of β -neutron-γ spectroscopy. A pure beam of 85Ga was produced at the Holifield Radioactive Ion Beam Facility using a resonance ionization laser ion source and a high-resolution electromagnetic separator. The β -delayed neutron emission probability was measured for the first time, yielding 70(5)%. An upper limit of 0.1% for β -delayed two-neutron emission was also experimentally established for the first time. A detailed decay scheme including absolute γ -ray intensities was obtained. Results are compared with theoretical β -delayed emission models.

Multiple Sensitivity Testing for Regional Air Quality Model in summer 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Lee, P.; Pan, L.; Tong, D.; Kim, H. C.; Huang, M.; Wang, J.; McQueen, J.; Lu, C. H.; Artz, R. S.

2015-12-01

The NOAA Air Resources laboratory leads to improve the performance of the U.S. Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC). It is operational in NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which focuses on predicting surface ozone and PM2.5. In order to improve its performance, we tested several approaches, including NOAA Environmental Modeling System Global Aerosol Component (NGAC) simulation derived ozone and aerosol lateral boundary conditions (LBC), bi-direction NH3 emission and HMS(Hazard Mapping System)-BlueSky emission with the latest U.S. EPA Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version and the U.S EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI)-2011 anthropogenic emissions. The operational NAQFC uses static profiles for its lateral boundary condition (LBC), which does not impose severe issue for near-surface air quality prediction. However, its degraded performance for the upper layer (e.g. above 3km) is evident when comparing with aircraft measured ozone. NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS) has tracer O3 prediction treated as 3-D prognostic variable (Moorthi and Iredell, 1998) after being initialized with Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet-2 (SBUV-2) satellite data. We applied that ozone LBC to the CMAQ's upper layers and yield more reasonable O3 prediction than that with static LBC comparing with the aircraft data in Discover-AQ Colorado campaign. NGAC's aerosol LBC also improved the PM2.5 prediction with more realistic background aerosols. The bi-direction NH3 emission used in CMAQ also help reduce the NH3 and nitrate under-prediction issue. During summer 2014, strong wildfires occurred in northwestern USA, and we used the US Forest Service's BlueSky fire emission with HMS fire counts to drive CMAQ and tested the difference of day-1 and day-2 fire emission estimation. Other related issues were also discussed.

The Impact of Residential Combustion Emissions on Air Quality and Human Health in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archer-Nicholls, S.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Baumgartner, J.; Brauer, M.; Cohen, A.; Carter, E.; Frostad, J.; Forouzanfar, M.; Xiao, Q.; Liu, Y.; Yang, X.; Hongjiang, N.; Kun, N.

2015-12-01

Solid fuel cookstoves are used heavily in rural China for both residential cooking and heating purposes. Their use contributes significantly to regional emissions of several key pollutants, including carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and aerosol particles. The residential sector was responsible for approximately 36%, 46% and 81% of China's total primary PM2.5, BC and OC emissions respectively in 2005 (Lei et al., 2011). These emissions have serious consequences for household air pollution, ambient air quality, tropospheric ozone formation, and the resulting population health and climate impacts. This paper presents initial findings from the modeling component of a multi-disciplinary energy intervention study currently being conducted in Sichuan, China. The purpose of this effort is to quantify the impact of residential cooking and heating emissions on regional air quality and human health. Simulations with varying levels of residential emissions have been carried out for the whole of 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), a fully-coupled, "online" regional chemical transport model. Model output is evaluated against surface air quality measurements across China and compared with seasonal (winter and summer) ambient air pollution measurements conducted at the Sichuan study site in 2014. The model output is applied to available exposure—response relationships between PM2.5 and cardiopulmonary health outcomes. The sensitivity in different regions across China to the different cookstove emission scenarios and seasonality of impacts are presented. By estimating the mortality and disease burden risk attributable to residential emissions we demonstrate the potential benefits from large-scale energy interventions. Lei Y, Zhang Q, He KB, Streets DG. 2011. Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990-2005. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11:931-954.

Assessment of Models of Galactic Thermal Dust Emission Using COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odegard, N.; Kogut, A.; Chuss, D. T.; Miller, N. J.

2016-01-01

Accurate modeling of the spectrum of thermal dust emission at millimeter wavelengths is important for improving the accuracy of foreground subtraction for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, for improving the accuracy with which the contributions of different foreground emission components can be determined, and for improving our understanding of dust composition and dust physics. We fit four models of dust emission to high Galactic latitude COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE observations from 3 mm to 100m and compare the quality of the fits. We consider the two-level systems (TLS) model because it provides a physically motivated explanation for the observed long wavelength flattening of the dust spectrum and the anti-correlation between emissivity index and dust temperature. We consider the model of Finkbeiner et al. because it has been widely used for CMB studies, and the generalized version of this model that was recently applied to Planck data by Meisner and Finkbeiner. For comparison we have also fit a phenomenological model consisting of the sum of two-graybody components. We find that the two-graybody model gives the best fit and the FDS model gives a significantly poorer fit than the othermodels. The Meisner and Finkbeiner model and the TLS model remain viable for use in Galactic foreground subtraction, but the FIRAS data do not have a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio to provide a strong test of the predicted spectrum at millimeter wavelengths.

The combustion of different air distribution of foursquare tangential circle boiler by numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yue; Du, Lei; Jiang, Long; Li, Qing; Zhao, Zhenning

2017-01-01

In this paper, the combustion and NOx emission characteristics of a 300 MW tangential boiler are simulated, we obtain the flue gas velocity field in the hearth, component concentration distribution of temperature field and combustion products, and the speed, temperature, concentration of oxygen and NOx emissions compared with the test results in the waisting air distribution conditions, found the simulation values coincide well with the test value, to verify the rationality of the model. At the same time, the flow field in the furnace, the combustion and the influence of NOx emission characteristics are simulated by different conditions, including compared with primary zone secondary waisting air distribution, uniform air distribution and pagodas go down air distribution, the results show that, waisting air distribution is useful to reduce NOx emissions.

Development and application of a reactive plume-in-grid model: evaluation over Greater Paris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korsakissok, I.; Mallet, V.

2010-09-01

Emissions from major point sources are badly represented by classical Eulerian models. An overestimation of the horizontal plume dilution, a bad representation of the vertical diffusion as well as an incorrect estimate of the chemical reaction rates are the main limitations of such models in the vicinity of major point sources. The plume-in-grid method is a multiscale modeling technique that couples a local-scale Gaussian puff model with an Eulerian model in order to better represent these emissions. We present the plume-in-grid model developed in the air quality modeling system Polyphemus, with full gaseous chemistry. The model is evaluated on the metropolitan Île-de-France region, during six months (summer 2001). The subgrid-scale treatment is used for 89 major point sources, a selection based on the emission rates of NOx and SO2. Results with and without the subgrid treatment of point emissions are compared, and their performance by comparison to the observations on measurement stations is assessed. A sensitivity study is also carried out, on several local-scale parameters as well as on the vertical diffusion within the urban area. Primary pollutants are shown to be the most impacted by the plume-in-grid treatment. SO2 is the most impacted pollutant, since the point sources account for an important part of the total SO2 emissions, whereas NOx emissions are mostly due to traffic. The spatial impact of the subgrid treatment is localized in the vicinity of the sources, especially for reactive species (NOx and O3). Ozone is mostly sensitive to the time step between two puff emissions which influences the in-plume chemical reactions, whereas the almost-passive species SO2 is more sensitive to the injection time, which determines the duration of the subgrid-scale treatment. Future developments include an extension to handle aerosol chemistry, and an application to the modeling of line sources in order to use the subgrid treatment with road emissions. The latter is expected to lead to more striking results, due to the importance of traffic emissions for the pollutants of interest.

Quantifying Uncertainties in N2O Emission Due to N Fertilizer Application in Cultivated Areas

PubMed Central

Philibert, Aurore; Loyce, Chantal; Makowski, David

2012-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential approximately 298 times greater than that of CO2. In 2006, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated N2O emission due to synthetic and organic nitrogen (N) fertilization at 1% of applied N. We investigated the uncertainty on this estimated value, by fitting 13 different models to a published dataset including 985 N2O measurements. These models were characterized by (i) the presence or absence of the explanatory variable “applied N”, (ii) the function relating N2O emission to applied N (exponential or linear function), (iii) fixed or random background (i.e. in the absence of N application) N2O emission and (iv) fixed or random applied N effect. We calculated ranges of uncertainty on N2O emissions from a subset of these models, and compared them with the uncertainty ranges currently used in the IPCC-Tier 1 method. The exponential models outperformed the linear models, and models including one or two random effects outperformed those including fixed effects only. The use of an exponential function rather than a linear function has an important practical consequence: the emission factor is not constant and increases as a function of applied N. Emission factors estimated using the exponential function were lower than 1% when the amount of N applied was below 160 kg N ha−1. Our uncertainty analysis shows that the uncertainty range currently used by the IPCC-Tier 1 method could be reduced. PMID:23226430

The spatial extent of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emission in the Herbig star HD 179218

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, A. S.; Labadie, L.; Pantin, E.; Matter, A.; Alvarez, C.; Esquej, P.; Grellmann, R.; Rebolo, R.; Telesco, C.; Wolf, S.

2018-04-01

Aim. We investigate, in the mid-infrared, the spatial properties of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emission in the disk of HD 179218, an intermediate-mass Herbig star at 300 pc. Methods: We obtained mid-infrared images in the PAH-1, PAH-2 and Si-6 filters centered at 8.6, 11.3, and 12.5 μm, and N-band low-resolution spectra using CanariCam on the 10-m Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC). We compared the point spread function (PSF) profiles measured in the PAH filters to the profile derived in the Si-6 filter, where the thermal continuum emission dominates. We performed radiative transfer modeling of the spectral energy distribution (SED) and produced synthetic images in the three filters to investigate different spatial scenarios. Results: Our data show that the disk emission is spatially resolved in the PAH-1 and PAH-2 filters, while unresolved in the Si-6 filter. Thanks to very good observing conditions, an average full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 0.232'', 0.280'' and 0.293'' is measured in the three filters, respectively. Gaussian disk fitting and quadratic subtraction of the science and calibrator PSFs suggests a lower-limit characteristic angular diameter of the emission of 100 mas, or 30 au. The photometric and spectroscopic results are compatible with previous findings. Our radiative transfer (RT) modeling of the continuum suggests that the resolved emission should result from PAH molecules on the disk atmosphere being UV-excited by the central star. Simple geometrical models of the PAH component compared to the underlying continuum point to a PAH emission uniformly extended out to the physical limits of the disk model. Furthermore, our RT best model of the continuum requires a negative exponent of the surface density power-law, in contrast with earlier modeling pointing to a positive exponent. Conclusions: We have spatially resolved - for the first time to our knowledge - the PAHs emission in the disk of HD 179218 and set constraints on its spatial extent. Based on spatial and spectroscopic considerations as well as on qualitative comparison with IRS 48 and HD 97048, we favor a scenario in which PAHs extend out to large radii across the flared disk surface and are at the same time predominantly in an ionized charge state due to the strong UV radiation field of the 180 L⊙ central star.

Comparison of Techniques to Estimate Ammonia Emissions at Cattle Feedlots Using Time-Averaged and Instantaneous Concentration Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shonkwiler, K. B.; Ham, J. M.; Williams, C. M.

2013-12-01

Ammonia (NH3) that volatilizes from confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) can form aerosols that travel long distances where such aerosols can deposit in sensitive regions, potentially causing harm to local ecosystems. However, quantifying the emissions of ammonia from CAFOs through direct measurement is very difficult and costly to perform. A system was therefore developed at Colorado State University for conditionally sampling NH3 concentrations based on weather parameters measured using inexpensive equipment. These systems use passive diffusive cartridges (Radiello, Sigma-Aldrich, St. Louis, MO, USA) that provide time-averaged concentrations representative of a two-week deployment period. The samplers are exposed by a robotic mechanism so they are only deployed when wind is from the direction of the CAFO at 1.4 m/s or greater. These concentration data, along with other weather variables measured during each sampler deployment period, can then be used in a simple inverse model (FIDES, UMR Environnement et Grandes Cultures, Thiverval-Grignon, France) to estimate emissions. There are not yet any direct comparisons of the modeled emissions derived from time-averaged concentration data to modeled emissions from more sophisticated backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLs) techniques that utilize instantaneous measurements of NH3 concentration. In the summer and autumn of 2013, a suite of robotic passive sampler systems were deployed at a 25,000-head cattle feedlot at the same time as an open-path infrared (IR) diode laser (GasFinder2, Boreal Laser Inc., Edmonton, Alberta, Canada) which continuously measured ammonia concentrations instantaneously over a 225-m path. This particular laser is utilized in agricultural settings, and in combination with a bLs model (WindTrax, Thunder Beach Scientific, Inc., Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada), has become a common method for estimating NH3 emissions from a variety of agricultural and industrial operations. This study will first compare the ammonia concentrations measured with the Radiello system to that measured with the long-path IR laser. Second, NH3 emissions estimated using the simple inverse model (FIDES) and the time-averaged data will be compared to emissions derived from the bLS model (WindTrax) using the laser-based NH3 data. Results could lead to a more cost-efficient and simpler technique for monitoring ammonia fluxes from of CAFOs and other strong areal sources.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nyhan, Marguerite; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Kang, Chaogui

Air pollution related to traffic emissions pose an especially significant problem in cities; this is due to its adverse impact on human health and well-being. Previous studies which have aimed to quantify emissions from the transportation sector have been limited by either simulated or coarsely resolved traffic volume data. Emissions inventories form the basis of urban pollution models, therefore in this study, Global Positioning System (GPS) trajectory data from a taxi fleet of over 15,000 vehicles were analyzed with the aim of predicting air pollution emissions for Singapore. This novel approach enabled the quantification of instantaneous drive cycle parameters inmore » high spatio-temporal resolution, which provided the basis for a microscopic emissions model. Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM) emissions were thus estimated. Highly localized areas of elevated emissions levels were identified, with a spatio-temporal precision not possible with previously used methods for estimating emissions. Relatively higher emissions areas were mainly concentrated in a few districts that were the Singapore Downtown Core area, to the north of the central urban region and to the east of it. Daily emissions quantified for the total motor vehicle population of Singapore were found to be comparable to another emissions dataset Results demonstrated that high resolution spatio-temporal vehicle traces detected using GPS in large taxi fleets could be used to infer highly localized areas of elevated acceleration and air pollution emissions in cities, and may become a complement to traditional emission estimates, especially in emerging cities and countries where reliable fine-grained urban air quality data is not easily available. This is the first study of its kind to investigate measured microscopic vehicle movement in tandem with microscopic emissions modeling for a substantial study domain.« less

Why models struggle to capture Arctic Haze: the underestimated role of gas flaring and domestic combustion emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.; Klimont, Z.; Eckhardt, S.; Kupiainen, K.

2013-04-01

Arctic Haze is a seasonal phenomenon with high concentrations of accumulation-mode aerosols occurring in the Arctic in winter and early spring. Chemistry transport models and climate chemistry models struggle to reproduce this phenomenon, and this has recently prompted changes in aerosol removal schemes to remedy the modeling problems. In this paper, we show that shortcomings in current emission data sets are at least as important. We perform a 3 yr model simulation of black carbon (BC) with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The model is driven with a new emission data set which includes emissions from gas flaring. While gas flaring is estimated to contribute less than 3% of global BC emissions in this data set, flaring dominates the estimated BC emissions in the Arctic (north of 66° N). Putting these emissions into our model, we find that flaring contributes 42% to the annual mean BC surface concentrations in the Arctic. In March, flaring even accounts for 52% of all Arctic BC near the surface. Most of the flaring BC remains close to the surface in the Arctic, so that the flaring contribution to BC in the middle and upper troposphere is small. Another important factor determining simulated BC concentrations is the seasonal variation of BC emissions from domestic combustion. We have calculated daily domestic combustion emissions using the heating degree day (HDD) concept based on ambient air temperature and compare results from model simulations using emissions with daily, monthly and annual time resolution. In January, the Arctic-mean surface concentrations of BC due to domestic combustion emissions are 150% higher when using daily emissions than when using annually constant emissions. While there are concentration reductions in summer, they are smaller than the winter increases, leading to a systematic increase of annual mean Arctic BC surface concentrations due to domestic combustion by 68% when using daily emissions. A large part (93%) of this systematic increase can be captured also when using monthly emissions; the increase is compensated by a decreased BC burden at lower latitudes. In a comparison with BC measurements at six Arctic stations, we find that using daily-varying domestic combustion emissions and introducing gas flaring emissions leads to large improvements of the simulated Arctic BC, both in terms of mean concentration levels and simulated seasonality. Case studies based on BC and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Zeppelin observatory appear to confirm flaring as an important BC source that can produce pollution plumes in the Arctic with a high BC/CO enhancement ratio, as expected for this source type. Our results suggest that it may not be "vertical transport that is too strong or scavenging rates that are too low" and "opposite biases in these processes" in the Arctic and elsewhere in current aerosol models, as suggested in a recent review article (Bond et al., 2013), but missing emission sources and lacking time resolution of the emission data that are causing opposite model biases in simulated BC concentrations in the Arctic and in the mid-latitudes.

Spatial inter-comparison of Top-down emission inventories in European urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trombetti, Marco; Thunis, Philippe; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Clappier, Alain; Couvidat, Florian; Guevara, Marc; Kuenen, Jeroen; López-Aparicio, Susana

2018-01-01

This paper presents an inter-comparison of the main Top-down emission inventories currently used for air quality modelling studies at the European level. The comparison is developed for eleven European cities and compares the distribution of emissions of NOx, SO2, VOC and PPM2.5 from the road transport, residential combustion and industry sectors. The analysis shows that substantial differences in terms of total emissions, sectorial emission shares and spatial distribution exist between the datasets. The possible reasons in terms of downscaling approaches and choice of spatial proxies are analysed and recommendations are provided for each inventory in order to work towards the harmonisation of spatial downscaling and proxy calibration, in particular for policy purposes. The proposed methodology may be useful for the development of consistent and harmonised European-wide inventories with the aim of reducing the uncertainties in air quality modelling activities.

Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

PubMed Central

Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

2013-01-01

Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

Using STELLA System Dynamic Model to Analyze Greenhouse Gases' Emission From Solid Waste Management in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horng, Jao-Jia; Lee, R.F.; Liao, K.Y.

2004-03-31

Using a system dynamic model (SDM), such as STELLA, to analyze the waste management policy is a new trial for Taiwan's research communities. We have developed an easy and relatively accurate model for analyzing the greenhouse gases emission for the wastes from animal farming and municipalities. With the local research data of the past decade, we extract the most prominent factors and assemble the SDM. The results and scenarios were compared with the national inventory. By comparing to the past data, we found these models reasonably represent the situation in Taiwan. However, SDM can program many scenarios and produce amore » lot of prediction data. With the development of many program control tools on STELLA, we believe the models could be further used by researchers or policy-makers to find the needed research topics, to set the future scenarios and to determine the management tools.« less

Evaluation of improved land use and canopy representation in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) participate in reactions that can lead to secondarily formed ozone and particulate matter (PM) impacting air quality and climate. BVOC emissions are important inputs to chemical transport models applied on local to global scales but considerable uncertainty remains in the representation of canopy parameterizations and emission algorithms from different vegetation species. The Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS) has been used to support both scientific and regulatory model assessments for ozone and PM. Here we describe a new version of BEIS which includes updated input vegetation data and canopy model formulation for estimating leaf temperature and vegetation data on estimated BVOC. The Biogenic Emission Landuse Database (BELD) was revised to incorporate land use data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land product and 2006 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) land coverage. Vegetation species data are based on the US Forest Service (USFS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) version 5.1 for 2002–2013 and US Department of Agriculture (USDA) 2007 census of agriculture data. This update results in generally higher BVOC emissions throughout California compared with the previous version of BEIS. Baseline and updated BVOC emission estimates are used in Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model simulations with 4 km grid resolution and evaluated with measurements of isoprene and monoterp

Temporal and spatial distribution of global mitigation cost: INDCs and equity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jing-Yu; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko

2016-11-01

Each country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC inter-generational and inter-regional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emissions target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium. Both scenarios eventually achieve 2 °C target. The results showed that, as compared with an immediate emission reduction scenario, the inter-generational equity status is not favorable for INDC scenario and the future generation suffers more from delayed mitigation. Moreover, this conclusion was robust to the wide range of inequality aversion parameter that determines discount rate. On the other hand, the INDC scenario has better inter-regional equity in the early part of the century than does the immediate emission reduction scenario in which we assume a global carbon price during the period up to 2030. However, inter-regional equity worsens later in the century. The additional emissions reduction to the INDC in 2030 would improve both inter- and inter-regional equity as compared to the current INDC. We also suggest that countries should commit to more emissions reductions in the follow-up INDC communications and that continuous consideration for low-income countries is needed for global climate change cooperation after 2030.

Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona for the Total Solar Eclipse of March 29,2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. a.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; TItov, V.

2007-01-01

We describe the use of a three-dimensional MHD model to predict the s tructure of the corona prior to the total solar eclipse of March 29, 2006. The calculation uses the observed photospheric radial magnetic f ield as a boundary condition. We use a new version of our model that has an improved description of energy transport in the corona. The mo del allows us to predict the emission of X-ray and EUV radiation in t he corona. We compare the predicted polarization brightness in the co rona with four observations of the eclipse from Greece, Egypt, and Li bya, and we demonstrate that the model accurately predicts the largescale structure of the corona. We also compare X-ray emission from the model with GOES/SXI images.

Regional modeling of tropospheric NO2 vertical column density over East Asia during the period 2000-2010: comparison with multisatellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itahashi, S.; Uno, I.; Irie, H.; Kurokawa, J.-I.; Ohara, T.

2014-04-01

Satellite observations of the tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) are closely correlated to, and thus can be used to estimate, surface NOx emissions. In this study, the NO2 VCD simulated by a regional chemical transport model with emissions data from the updated Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 2.1 were validated through comparison with multisatellite observations during the period 2000-2010. Rapid growth in NO2 VCD (~11% year-1) driven by the expansion of anthropogenic NOx emissions was identified above the central eastern China (CEC) region, except for the period during the economic downturn. In contrast, slightly decreasing trends (~2% year-1) were identified above Japan accompanied by a decline in anthropogenic emissions. To systematically compare the modeled NO2 VCD, we estimated sampling bias and the effect of applying the averaging kernel information, with particular focus on the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) data. Using the updated REAS, the modeled NO2 VCD reasonably reproduced annual trends observed by multisatellites, suggesting that the rate of increase of NOx emissions estimated by the updated REAS inventory would be robust. Province-scale revision of emissions above CEC is needed to further refine emission inventories. Based on the close linear relationship between modeled and observed NO2 VCD and anthropogenic NOx emissions, NOx emissions in 2009 and 2010, which were not covered by the updated REAS inventory, were estimated. NOx emissions from anthropogenic sources in China in 2009 and 2010 were determined to be 26.4 and 28.5 Tg year-1, respectively, indicating that NOx emissions increased more than twofold between 2000 and 2010. This increase reflected the strong growth of anthropogenic emissions in China following the rapid recovery from the economic downturn from late 2008 until mid-2009. Our method consists of simple estimations from satellite observations and provides results that are consistent with the most recent inventory of emissions data for China.

Systematic search for high-energy gamma-ray emission from bow shocks of runaway stars

DOE PAGES

Schulz, A.; Ackermann, M.; Buehler, R.; ...

2014-05-01

Context. It has been suggested that the bow shocks of runaway stars are sources of high-energy gamma rays (E > 100 MeV). Theoretical models predicting high-energy gamma-ray emission from these sources were followed by the first detection of non-thermal radio emission from the bow shock of BD+43°3654 and non-thermal X-ray emission from the bow shock of AE Aurigae. Aims. We perform the first systematic search for MeV and GeV emission from 27 bow shocks of runaway stars using data collected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) onboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi). Methods. We analysed 57 months of Fermi-LATmore » data at the positions of 27 bow shocks of runaway stars extracted from the Extensive stellar BOw Shock Survey catalogue (E-BOSS). A likelihood analysis was performed to search for gamma-ray emission that is not compatible with diffuse background or emission from neighbouring sources and that could be associated with the bow shocks. Results. None of the bow shock candidates is detected significantly in the Fermi-LAT energy range. We therefore present upper limits on the high-energy emission in the energy range from 100MeV to 300 GeV for 27 bow shocks of runaway stars in four energy bands. For the three cases where models of the high-energy emission are published we compare our upper limits to the modelled spectra. Our limits exclude the model predictions for ζ Ophiuchi by a factor ≈ 5.« less

High-resolution simulation of link-level vehicle emissions and concentrations for air pollutants in a traffic-populated eastern Asian city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Huang, Ruikun; Wang, Jiandong; Yan, Han; Zheng, Yali; Hao, Jiming

2016-08-01

Vehicle emissions containing air pollutants created substantial environmental impacts on air quality for many traffic-populated cities in eastern Asia. A high-resolution emission inventory is a useful tool compared with traditional tools (e.g. registration data-based approach) to accurately evaluate real-world traffic dynamics and their environmental burden. In this study, Macau, one of the most populated cities in the world, is selected to demonstrate a high-resolution simulation of vehicular emissions and their contribution to air pollutant concentrations by coupling multimodels. First, traffic volumes by vehicle category on 47 typical roads were investigated during weekdays in 2010 and further applied in a networking demand simulation with the TransCAD model to establish hourly profiles of link-level vehicle counts. Local vehicle driving speed and vehicle age distribution data were also collected in Macau. Second, based on a localized vehicle emission model (e.g. the emission factor model for the Beijing vehicle fleet - Macau, EMBEV-Macau), this study established a link-based vehicle emission inventory in Macau with high resolution meshed in a temporal and spatial framework. Furthermore, we employed the AERMOD (AMS/EPA Regulatory Model) model to map concentrations of CO and primary PM2.5 contributed by local vehicle emissions during weekdays in November 2010. This study has discerned the strong impact of traffic flow dynamics on the temporal and spatial patterns of vehicle emissions, such as a geographic discrepancy of spatial allocation up to 26 % between THC and PM2.5 emissions owing to spatially heterogeneous vehicle-use intensity between motorcycles and diesel fleets. We also identified that the estimated CO2 emissions from gasoline vehicles agreed well with the statistical fuel consumption in Macau. Therefore, this paper provides a case study and a solid framework for developing high-resolution environment assessment tools for other vehicle-populated cities in eastern Asia.

Fermi Large Area Telescope Measurements of the Diffuse Gamma-Ray Emission at Intermediate Galactic Latitudes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdo, A.A.; /Naval Research Lab, Wash., D.C.; Ackermann, M.

The diffuse galactic {gamma}-ray emission is produced by cosmic rays (CRs) interacting with the interstellar gas and radiation field. Measurements by the Energetic Gamma-Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) instrument on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory indicated excess {gamma}-ray emission {ge}1 GeV relative to diffuse galactic {gamma}-ray emission models consistent with directly measured CR spectra (the so-called 'EGRET GeV excess'). The Large Area Telescope (LAT) instrument on the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope has measured the diffuse {gamma}-ray emission with improved sensitivity and resolution compared to EGRET. We report on LAT measurements for energies 100 MeV to 10 GeV and galactic latitudes 10{sup o}more » {le} |b| {le} 20{sup o}. The LAT spectrum for this region of the sky is well reproduced by a diffuse galactic {gamma}-ray emission model that is consistent with local CR spectra and inconsistent with the EGRET GeV excess.« less

Fermi Large Area Telescope Measurements of the Diffuse Gamma-Ray Emission at Intermediate Galactic Latitudes

DOE PAGES

Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; ...

2009-12-16

We report that the diffuse galactic γ-ray emission is produced by cosmic rays (CRs) interacting with the interstellar gas and radiation field. Measurements by the Energetic Gamma-Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) instrument on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory indicated excess γ-ray emission ≳1 GeV relative to diffuse galactic γ-ray emission models consistent with directly measured CR spectra (the so-called “EGRET GeV excess”). The Large Area Telescope (LAT) instrument on the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope has measured the diffuse γ -ray emission with improved sensitivity and resolution compared to EGRET. We report on LAT measurements for energies 100 MeV to 10 GeV andmore » galactic latitudes 10° ≤ | b | ≤ 20°. Finally, the LAT spectrum for this region of the sky is well reproduced by a diffuse galactic γ-ray emission model that is consistent with local CR spectra and inconsistent with the EGRET GeV excess.« less

Fermi large area telescope measurements of the diffuse gamma-ray emission at intermediate galactic latitudes.

PubMed

Abdo, A A; Ackermann, M; Ajello, M; Anderson, B; Atwood, W B; Axelsson, M; Baldini, L; Ballet, J; Barbiellini, G; Bastieri, D; Baughman, B M; Bechtol, K; Bellazzini, R; Berenji, B; Blandford, R D; Bloom, E D; Bonamente, E; Borgland, A W; Bregeon, J; Brez, A; Brigida, M; Bruel, P; Burnett, T H; Caliandro, G A; Cameron, R A; Caraveo, P A; Casandjian, J M; Cecchi, C; Charles, E; Chekhtman, A; Cheung, C C; Chiang, J; Ciprini, S; Claus, R; Cohen-Tanugi, J; Conrad, J; Dereli, H; Dermer, C D; de Angelis, A; de Palma, F; Digel, S W; Di Bernardo, G; Dormody, M; do Couto e Silva, E; Drell, P S; Dubois, R; Dumora, D; Edmonds, Y; Farnier, C; Favuzzi, C; Fegan, S J; Focke, W B; Frailis, M; Fukazawa, Y; Funk, S; Fusco, P; Gaggero, D; Gargano, F; Gehrels, N; Germani, S; Giebels, B; Giglietto, N; Giordano, F; Glanzman, T; Godfrey, G; Grenier, I A; Grondin, M-H; Grove, J E; Guillemot, L; Guiriec, S; Hanabata, Y; Harding, A K; Hayashida, M; Hays, E; Hughes, R E; Jóhannesson, G; Johnson, A S; Johnson, R P; Johnson, T J; Johnson, W N; Kamae, T; Katagiri, H; Kataoka, J; Kawai, N; Kerr, M; Knödlseder, J; Kocian, M L; Kuehn, F; Kuss, M; Lande, J; Latronico, L; Longo, F; Loparco, F; Lott, B; Lovellette, M N; Lubrano, P; Madejski, G M; Makeev, A; Mazziotta, M N; McConville, W; McEnery, J E; Meurer, C; Michelson, P F; Mitthumsiri, W; Mizuno, T; Moiseev, A A; Monte, C; Monzani, M E; Morselli, A; Moskalenko, I V; Murgia, S; Nolan, P L; Nuss, E; Ohsugi, T; Okumura, A; Omodei, N; Orlando, E; Ormes, J F; Paneque, D; Panetta, J H; Parent, D; Pelassa, V; Pepe, M; Pesce-Rollins, M; Piron, F; Porter, T A; Rainò, S; Rando, R; Razzano, M; Reimer, A; Reimer, O; Reposeur, T; Ritz, S; Rodriguez, A Y; Roth, M; Ryde, F; Sadrozinski, H F-W; Sanchez, D; Sander, A; Saz Parkinson, P M; Scargle, J D; Sellerholm, A; Sgrò, C; Smith, D A; Smith, P D; Spandre, G; Spinelli, P; Starck, J-L; Stecker, F W; Striani, E; Strickman, M S; Strong, A W; Suson, D J; Tajima, H; Takahashi, H; Tanaka, T; Thayer, J B; Thayer, J G; Thompson, D J; Tibaldo, L; Torres, D F; Tosti, G; Tramacere, A; Uchiyama, Y; Usher, T L; Vasileiou, V; Vilchez, N; Vitale, V; Waite, A P; Wang, P; Winer, B L; Wood, K S; Ylinen, T; Ziegler, M

2009-12-18

The diffuse galactic gamma-ray emission is produced by cosmic rays (CRs) interacting with the interstellar gas and radiation field. Measurements by the Energetic Gamma-Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) instrument on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory indicated excess gamma-ray emission greater, > or approximately equal to 1 GeV relative to diffuse galactic gamma-ray emission models consistent with directly measured CR spectra (the so-called "EGRET GeV excess"). The Large Area Telescope (LAT) instrument on the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope has measured the diffuse gamma-ray emission with improved sensitivity and resolution compared to EGRET. We report on LAT measurements for energies 100 MeV to 10 GeV and galactic latitudes 10 degrees < or = |b| < or = 20 degrees. The LAT spectrum for this region of the sky is well reproduced by a diffuse galactic gamma-ray emission model that is consistent with local CR spectra and inconsistent with the EGRET GeV excess.

Top-down quantification of NOx emissions from traffic in an urban area using a high-resolution regional atmospheric chemistry model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuik, Friderike; Kerschbaumer, Andreas; Lauer, Axel; Lupascu, Aurelia; von Schneidemesser, Erika; Butler, Tim M.

2018-06-01

With NO2 limit values being frequently exceeded in European cities, complying with the European air quality regulations still poses a problem for many cities. Traffic is typically a major source of NOx emissions in urban areas. High-resolution chemistry transport modelling can help to assess the impact of high urban NOx emissions on air quality inside and outside of urban areas. However, many modelling studies report an underestimation of modelled NOx and NO2 compared with observations. Part of this model bias has been attributed to an underestimation of NOx emissions, particularly in urban areas. This is consistent with recent measurement studies quantifying underestimations of urban NOx emissions by current emission inventories, identifying the largest discrepancies when the contribution of traffic NOx emissions is high. This study applies a high-resolution chemistry transport model in combination with ambient measurements in order to assess the potential underestimation of traffic NOx emissions in a frequently used emission inventory. The emission inventory is based on officially reported values and the Berlin-Brandenburg area in Germany is used as a case study. The WRF-Chem model is used at a 3 km × 3 km horizontal resolution, simulating the whole year of 2014. The emission data are downscaled from an original resolution of ca. 7 km × 7 km to a resolution of 1 km × 1 km. An in-depth model evaluation including spectral decomposition of observed and modelled time series and error apportionment suggests that an underestimation in traffic emissions is likely one of the main causes of the bias in modelled NO2 concentrations in the urban background, where NO2 concentrations are underestimated by ca. 8 µg m-3 (-30 %) on average over the whole year. Furthermore, a diurnal cycle of the bias in modelled NO2 suggests that a more realistic treatment of the diurnal cycle of traffic emissions might be needed. Model problems in simulating the correct mixing in the urban planetary boundary layer probably play an important role in contributing to the model bias, particularly in summer. Also taking into account this and other possible sources of model bias, a correction factor for traffic NOx emissions of ca. 3 is estimated for weekday daytime traffic emissions in the core urban area, which corresponds to an overall underestimation of traffic NOx emissions in the core urban area of ca. 50 %. Sensitivity simulations for the months of January and July using the calculated correction factor show that the weekday model bias can be improved from -8.8 µg m-3 (-26 %) to -5.4 µg m-3 (-16 %) in January on average in the urban background, and -10.3 µg m-3 (-46 %) to -7.6 µg m-3 (-34 %) in July. In addition, the negative bias of weekday NO2 concentrations downwind of the city in the rural and suburban background can be reduced from -3.4 µg m-3 (-12 %) to -1.2 µg m-3 (-4 %) in January and from -3.0 µg m-3 (-22 %) to -1.9 µg m-3 (-14 %) in July. The results and their consistency with findings from other studies suggest that more research is needed in order to more accurately understand the spatial and temporal variability in real-world NOx emissions from traffic, and apply this understanding to the inventories used in high-resolution chemical transport models.

Hybrid and conventional hydrogen engine vehicles that meet EZEV emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aceves, S.M.; Smith, J.R.

In this paper, a time-dependent engine model is used for predicting hydrogen engine efficiency and emissions. The model uses basic thermodynamic equations for the compression and expansion processes, along with an empirical correlation for heat transfer, to predict engine indicated efficiency. A friction correlation and a supercharger/turbocharger model are then used to calculate brake thermal efficiency. The model is validated with many experimental points obtained in a recent evaluation of a hydrogen research engine. A The validated engine model is then used to calculate fuel economy and emissions for three hydrogen-fueled vehicles: a conventional, a parallel hybrid, and a seriesmore » hybrid. All vehicles use liquid hydrogen as a fuel. The hybrid vehicles use a flywheel for energy storage. Comparable ultra capacitor or battery energy storage performance would give similar results. This paper analyzes the engine and flywheel sizing requirements for obtaining a desired level of performance. The results indicate that hydrogen lean-burn spark-ignited engines can provide a high fuel economy and Equivalent Zero Emission Vehicle (EZEV) levels in the three vehicle configurations being analyzed.« less

Cathode fall model and current-voltage characteristics of field emission driven direct current microplasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Venkattraman, Ayyaswamy

2013-11-15

The post-breakdown characteristics of field emission driven microplasma are studied theoretically and numerically. A cathode fall model assuming a linearly varying electric field is used to obtain equations governing the operation of steady state field emission driven microplasmas. The results obtained from the model by solving these equations are compared with particle-in-cell with Monte Carlo collisions simulation results for parameters including the plasma potential, cathode fall thickness, ion number density in the cathode fall, and current density vs voltage curves. The model shows good overall agreement with the simulations but results in slightly overpredicted values for the plasma potential andmore » the cathode fall thickness attributed to the assumed electric field profile. The current density vs voltage curves obtained show an arc region characterized by negative slope as well as an abnormal glow discharge characterized by a positive slope in gaps as small as 10 μm operating at atmospheric pressure. The model also retrieves the traditional macroscale current vs voltage theory in the absence of field emission.« less

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: towards a process-based model for global applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ringeval, B.; Houweling, S.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Spahni, R.; van Beek, R.; Joos, F.; Röckmann, T.

2013-10-01

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on time scales ranging from glacial-interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This study documents the first regional-scale, process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains. The LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially-explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new Plant Functional Types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote sensing datasets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX simulated CH4 flux densities are in reasonable agreement with observations at the field scale but with a~tendency to overestimate the flux observed at specific sites. In addition, the model did not reproduce between-site variations or between-year variations within a site. Unfortunately, site informations are too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr-1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the seasonality in CH4 emissions. The Inter Annual Variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is account for, but still remains lower than in most of WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability.

The NLS-Based Nonlinear Grey Multivariate Model for Forecasting Pollutant Emissions in China

PubMed Central

Pei, Ling-Ling; Li, Qin

2018-01-01

The relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth has been a major research focus in environmental economics. To accurately estimate the nonlinear change law of China’s pollutant discharge with economic growth, this study establishes a transformed nonlinear grey multivariable (TNGM (1, N)) model based on the nonlinear least square (NLS) method. The Gauss–Seidel iterative algorithm was used to solve the parameters of the TNGM (1, N) model based on the NLS basic principle. This algorithm improves the precision of the model by continuous iteration and constantly approximating the optimal regression coefficient of the nonlinear model. In our empirical analysis, the traditional grey multivariate model GM (1, N) and the NLS-based TNGM (1, N) models were respectively adopted to forecast and analyze the relationship among wastewater discharge per capita (WDPC), and per capita emissions of SO2 and dust, alongside GDP per capita in China during the period 1996–2015. Results indicated that the NLS algorithm is able to effectively help the grey multivariable model identify the nonlinear relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth. The results show that the NLS-based TNGM (1, N) model presents greater precision when forecasting WDPC, SO2 emissions and dust emissions per capita, compared to the traditional GM (1, N) model; WDPC indicates a growing tendency aligned with the growth of GDP, while the per capita emissions of SO2 and dust reduce accordingly. PMID:29517985

Year-round methane emissions from permafrost in a North-east Siberian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Morales, Karel; Kaiser, Sonja; Kleinen, Thomas; Kwon, Min Jung; Kittler, Fanny; Zaehle, Sönke; Beer, Christian; Göckede, Mathias

2017-04-01

In recent decades, permafrost regions in northern latitudes are thawing as a response of climate warming. Soils in permafrost areas contain vast amounts of organic material that is released into the environment after thaw, providing new labile material for bacterial decomposition. As a result, higher production of methane in the anoxic soil layers and within anaerobic wetlands is anticipated, and this will be further released to the atmosphere. In order to assess the current large-scale methane emissions from a wetland permafrost-thaw affected area, we present results of year-round simulated methane emissions at regional scale for a section at the Russian far Northeast in Siberia, located in the low Arctic tundra and characterized by continuous permafrost. For this we use a newly developed process-based methane model built in the framework of the land surface model JSBACH. The model contains explicit permafrost processes and an improved representation of the horizontal extent of wetlands with a hydrological model (TOPMODEL). Model simulated distribution and horizontal extent of wetlands is evaluated against high-resolution remote sensing data. Total and individual regional methane emissions by ebullition, molecular diffusion, plant-mediated and emissions through snow are presented for 2014 and 2015. The model shows a reasonable seasonal transition between the individual methane emission paths. Most of the methane emissions to the atmosphere occur in summer (July, August, September), with the peak of the emissions during August. In this month, plant-mediated transport is the dominant emission path with about 15 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2014, followed by ebullition (7 mg CH4 m-2 d-1) accounting for about half of the emissions thorough plants. Molecular diffusion is a minor contributor with only 0.006 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 at the peak of the summer emissions. Methane emissions through snow occur only during spring, fall and winter months, with higher emissions in spring and autumn (max. 2 mg CH4 m-2 d-1) when the thickness of the snow layer starts to melt or accumulate, respectively. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the modeled total methane emissions from a section of the Kolyma river floodplain near Chersky, against methane fluxes obtained from eddy covariance (for 2014 and 2015) and chambers (for June - August 2014) measured in the same area. Model results agree well with observations, with the highest emissions during August each year with 92.3 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 from eddy fluxes, 72.5 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 from chambers and 79.0 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 from the model in 2014, while 64.4 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 from eddy and 66.3 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 from the model in August 2015. The model underestimates winter emissions by up to 15 mg CH4 m-2 d-1, however a better agreement is observed in April 2014. To understand the shortcomings of the model against observations, the heterogeneity between model grid cells will be discussed.

78 FR 67090 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Florida: Non-interference Demonstration for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-08

... disease. The most common measure of fuel volatility that is useful in evaluating gasoline evaporative... maintenance demonstration compared the 2002 baseline emissions inventory to the 2018 projected emissions... for model year 2014 and 2018, and did not include inspection and maintenance programs in any of the...

Canopy Level Emissions of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes from a Pinus taeda Experimental Plantation

EPA Science Inventory

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) observed during 2007 from a Pinus taeda experimental plantation in Central North Carolina are compared with model estimates from MEGAN 2.1. Relaxed Eddy Accumulation (REA) estimates of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO) fluxes are ...

A process-based emission model of volatile organic compounds from silage sources on farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonifacio, H. F.; Rotz, C. A.; Hafner, S. D.; Montes, F.; Cohen, M.; Mitloehner, F. M.

2017-03-01

Silage on dairy farms can emit large amounts of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), a precursor in the formation of tropospheric ozone. Because of the challenges associated with direct measurements, process-based modeling is another approach for estimating emissions of air pollutants from sources such as those from dairy farms. A process-based model for predicting VOC emissions from silage was developed and incorporated into the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM, v. 4.3), a whole-farm simulation of crop, dairy, and beef production systems. The performance of the IFSM silage VOC emission model was evaluated using ethanol and methanol emissions measured from conventional silage piles (CSP), silage bags (SB), total mixed rations (TMR), and loose corn silage (LCS) at a commercial dairy farm in central California. With transport coefficients for ethanol refined using experimental data from our previous studies, the model performed well in simulating ethanol emission from CSP, TMR, and LCS; its lower performance for SB could be attributed to possible changes in face conditions of SB after silage removal that are not represented in the current model. For methanol emission, lack of experimental data for refinement likely caused the underprediction for CSP and SB whereas the overprediction observed for TMR can be explained as uncertainty in measurements. Despite these limitations, the model is a valuable tool for comparing silage management options and evaluating their relative effects on the overall performance, economics, and environmental impacts of farm production. As a component of IFSM, the silage VOC emission model was used to simulate a representative dairy farm in central California. The simulation showed most silage VOC emissions were from feed lying in feed lanes and not from the exposed face of silage storages. This suggests that mitigation efforts, particularly in areas prone to ozone non-attainment status, should focus on reducing emissions during feeding. For the simulated dairy farm, a reduction of around 30% was found if cows were housed and fed in a barn rather than in an open lot, and 23% if feeds were delivered as four feedings per day rather than as one. Reducing the exposed face of storage can also be useful. Simulated use of silage bags resulted in 90% and 18% reductions in emissions from the storage face and whole farm, respectively.

A Five-Year CMAQ PM2.5 Model Performance for Wildfires and Prescribed Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkins, J. L.; Pouliot, G.; Foley, K.; Rappold, A.; Pierce, T. E.

2016-12-01

Biomass burning has been identified as an important contributor to the degradation of air quality because of its impact on ozone and particulate matter. Two components of the biomass burning inventory, wildfires and prescribed fires are routinely estimated in the national emissions inventory. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the development of these emission inventory sectors. We have completed a 5 year set of CMAQ model simulations (2008-2012) in which we have simulated regional air quality with and without the wildfire and prescribed fire inventory. We will examine CMAQ model performance over regions with significant PM2.5 and Ozone contribution from prescribed fires and wildfires. We will also review plume rise to see how it affects model bias and compare CMAQ current fire emissions input to an hourly dataset from FLAMBE.

A review of fundamental drivers governing the emissions, dispersion and exposure to vehicle-emitted nanoparticles at signalised traffic intersections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Anju; Kumar, Prashant

2014-11-01

Signalised traffic intersections (TIs) are considered as pollution hot-spots in urban areas, but the knowledge of fundamental drivers governing emission, dispersion and exposure to vehicle-emitted nanoparticles (represented by particle number concentration, PNC) at TIs is yet to be established. A number of following key factors, which are important for developing an emission and exposure framework for nanoparticles at TIs, are critically evaluated as a part of this review article. In particular, (i) how do traffic- and wind-flow features affect emission and dispersion of nanoparticles? (ii) What levels of PNCs can be typically expected under diverse signal- and traffic-conditions? (iii) How does the traffic driving condition affect the particle number (PN) emissions and the particle number emission factors (PNEF)? (iv) What is the relative importance of particle transformation processes in affecting the PNCs? (v) What are important considerations for the dispersion modelling of nanoparticles? (vi) What is extent of exposure at TIs with respect to other locations in urban settings? (vii) What are the gaps in current knowledge on this topic where the future research should focus? We found that the accurate consideration of dynamic traffic flow features at TIs is essential for reliable estimates of PN emissions. Wind flow features at TIs are generally complex to generalise. Only a few field studies have monitored PNCs at TIs until now, reporting over an order of magnitude larger peak PNCs (0.7-5.4 × 105 cm-3) compared with average PNCs at typical roadsides (˜0.3 × 105 cm-3). The PN emission and thus the PNEFs can be up to an order of magnitude higher during acceleration compared with steady speed conditions. The time scale analysis suggests nucleation as the fastest transformation process, followed by dilution, deposition, coagulation and condensation. Consideration of appropriate flow features, PNEFs and transformation processes emerged as important parameters for reliable modelling of PNCs at TIs. Computation of respiratory deposition doses (RDD) based on the available PNC data suggest that the peak RDD at TIs can be up to 12-times higher compared with average RDD at urban roadsides. Systematic field and modelling studies are needed to develop a sound understanding of the emissions, dispersion and exposure of nanoparticles at the TIs.

Field test of available methods to measure remotely SO2 and NOx emissions from ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balzani Lööv, J. M.; Alfoldy, B.; Beecken, J.; Berg, N.; Berkhout, A. J. C.; Duyzer, J.; Gast, L. F. L.; Hjorth, J.; Jalkanen, J.-P.; Lagler, F.; Mellqvist, J.; Prata, F.; van der Hoff, G. R.; Westrate, H.; Swart, D. P. J.; Borowiak, A.

2013-11-01

Methods for the determination of ship fuel sulphur content and NOx emission factors from remote measurements have been compared in the harbour of Rotterdam and compared to direct stack emission measurements on the ferry Stena Hollandica. The methods were selected based on a review of the available literature on ship emission measurements. They were either optical (LIDAR, DOAS, UV camera), combined with model based estimates of fuel consumption, or based on the so called "sniffer" principle, where SO2 or NOx emission factors are determined from simultaneous measurement of the increase of CO2 and SO2 or NOx concentrations in the plume of the ship compared to the background. The measurements were performed from stations at land, from a boat, and from a helicopter. Mobile measurement platforms were found to have important advantages compared to the landbased ones because they allow to optimize the sampling conditions and to sample from ships on the open sea. Although optical methods can provide reliable results, it was found that at the state of the art, the "sniffer" approach is the most convenient technique for determining both SO2 and NOx emission factors remotely. The average random error on the determination of SO2 emission factors comparing two identical instrumental set-ups was 6%. However, it was found that apparently minor differences in the instrumental characteristics, such as response time, could cause significant differences between the emission factors determined. Direct stack measurements showed that about 14% of the fuel sulphur content was not emitted as SO2. This was supported by the remote measurements and is in agreement with the results of other field studies.

Field test of available methods to measure remotely SOx and NOx emissions from ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balzani Lööv, J. M.; Alfoldy, B.; Gast, L. F. L.; Hjorth, J.; Lagler, F.; Mellqvist, J.; Beecken, J.; Berg, N.; Duyzer, J.; Westrate, H.; Swart, D. P. J.; Berkhout, A. J. C.; Jalkanen, J.-P.; Prata, A. J.; van der Hoff, G. R.; Borowiak, A.

2014-08-01

Methods for the determination of ship fuel sulphur content and NOx emission factors based on remote measurements have been compared in the harbour of Rotterdam and compared to direct stack emission measurements on the ferry Stena Hollandica. The methods were selected based on a review of the available literature on ship emission measurements. They were either optical (LIDAR, Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS), UV camera), combined with model-based estimates of fuel consumption, or based on the so called "sniffer" principle, where SO2 or NOx emission factors are determined from simultaneous measurement of the increase of CO2 and SO2 or NOx concentrations in the plume of the ship compared to the background. The measurements were performed from stations at land, from a boat and from a helicopter. Mobile measurement platforms were found to have important advantages compared to the land-based ones because they allow optimizing the sampling conditions and sampling from ships on the open sea. Although optical methods can provide reliable results it was found that at the state of the art level, the "sniffer" approach is the most convenient technique for determining both SO2 and NOx emission factors remotely. The average random error on the determination of SO2 emission factors comparing two identical instrumental set-ups was 6%. However, it was found that apparently minor differences in the instrumental characteristics, such as response time, could cause significant differences between the emission factors determined. Direct stack measurements showed that about 14% of the fuel sulphur content was not emitted as SO2. This was supported by the remote measurements and is in agreement with the results of other field studies.

Comparison of the Current Center of Site Annual Neshap Dose Modeling at the Savannah River Site with Other Assessment Methods.

PubMed

Minter, Kelsey M; Jannik, G Timothy; Stagich, Brooke H; Dixon, Kenneth L; Newton, Joseph R

2018-04-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the use of the model CAP88 to estimate the total effective dose (TED) to an offsite maximally exposed individual (MEI) for demonstrating compliance with 40 CFR 61, Subpart H: The National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) regulations. For NESHAP compliance at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the EPA, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control, and SRS approved a dose assessment method in 1991 that models all radiological emissions as if originating from a generalized center of site (COS) location at two allowable stack heights (0 m and 61 m). However, due to changes in SRS missions, radiological emissions are no longer evenly distributed about the COS. An area-specific simulation of the 2015 SRS radiological airborne emissions was conducted to compare to the current COS method. The results produced a slightly higher dose estimate (2.97 × 10 mSv vs. 2.22 × 10 mSv), marginally changed the overall MEI location, and noted that H-Area tritium emissions dominated the dose. Thus, an H-Area dose model was executed as a potential simplification of the area-specific simulation by adopting the COS methodology and modeling all site emissions from a single location in H-Area using six stack heights that reference stacks specific to the tritium production facilities within H-Area. This "H-Area Tritium Stacks" method produced a small increase in TED estimates (3.03 × 10 mSv vs. 2.97 × 10 mSv) when compared to the area-specific simulation. This suggests that the current COS method is still appropriate for demonstrating compliance with NESHAP regulations but that changing to the H-Area Tritium Stacks assessment method may now be a more appropriate representation of operations at SRS.

Modeling and Evaluation of the Global Sea-Salt Aerosol Distribution: Sensitivity to Emission Schemes and Resolution Effects at Coastal/Orographic Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spada, M.; Jorba, O.; Perez Garcia-Pando, C.; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano, J. M.

2013-01-01

One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multi-scale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 year global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1). Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature (SST)-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 teragrams per year to 8114 teragrams per year, lifetime varies between 7.3 hours and 11.3 hours, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 teragrams and 7.2 teragrams. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8 percent to +38.8 percent. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from minus 9.5 percent to plus 28 percent and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

Estimation of radionuclide (137Cs) emission rates from a nuclear power plant accident using the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM).

PubMed

Park, Soon-Ung; Lee, In-Hye; Ju, Jae-Won; Joo, Seung Jin

2016-10-01

A methodology for the estimation of the emission rate of 137 Cs by the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) with the use of monitored 137 Cs concentrations around a nuclear power plant has been developed. This method has been employed with the MM5 meteorological model in the 600 km × 600 km model domain with the horizontal grid scale of 3 km × 3 km centered at the Fukushima nuclear power plant to estimate 137 Cs emission rate for the accidental period from 00 UTC 12 March to 00 UTC 6 April 2011. The Lagrangian Particles are released continuously with the rate of one particle per minute at the first level modelled, about 15 m above the power plant site. The presently developed method was able to simulate quite reasonably the estimated 137 Cs emission rate compared with other studies, suggesting the potential usefulness of the present method for the estimation of the emission rate from the accidental power plant without detailed inventories of reactors and fuel assemblies and spent fuels. The advantage of this method is not so complicated but can be applied only based on one-time forward LPDM simulation with monitored concentrations around the power plant, in contrast to other inverse models. It was also found that continuously monitored radionuclides concentrations from possibly many sites located in all directions around the power plant are required to get accurate continuous emission rates from the accident power plant. The current methodology can also be used to verify the previous version of radionuclides emissions used among other modeling groups for the cases of intermittent or discontinuous samplings. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

U.S. Energy Sector Impacts of Technology Innovation, Fuel Price, and Electric Sector CO 2 Policy: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Study

DOE PAGES

Hodson, Elke L.; Brown, Maxwell; Cohen, Stuart; ...

2018-03-22

We study the impact of fuel prices, technology innovation, and a CO 2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end-use sectors by comparing outputs from four U.S. energyeconomic models through the year 2050. Achieving innovation goals decreases CO 2 emissions in all models, regardless of natural gas price, due to increased energy efficiency and low-carbon generation becoming more cost competitive. For the models that include domestic natural gas markets, achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices, but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase. Higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices butmore » fewer coal capacity retirements. A CO 2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals. Long-term, meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar CO 2 emissions compared to the CO 2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices. In the short-term, the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model. Finally, higher natural gas prices, achieving innovation goals, and the combination of the two, increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost-effective to build and operate while slowing the growth of natural-gas fired generation, which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions.« less

U.S. Energy Sector Impacts of Technology Innovation, Fuel Price, and Electric Sector CO 2 Policy: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodson, Elke L.; Brown, Maxwell; Cohen, Stuart

We study the impact of fuel prices, technology innovation, and a CO 2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end-use sectors by comparing outputs from four U.S. energyeconomic models through the year 2050. Achieving innovation goals decreases CO 2 emissions in all models, regardless of natural gas price, due to increased energy efficiency and low-carbon generation becoming more cost competitive. For the models that include domestic natural gas markets, achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices, but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase. Higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices butmore » fewer coal capacity retirements. A CO 2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals. Long-term, meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar CO 2 emissions compared to the CO 2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices. In the short-term, the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model. Finally, higher natural gas prices, achieving innovation goals, and the combination of the two, increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost-effective to build and operate while slowing the growth of natural-gas fired generation, which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions.« less

WHAT IS THE SOURCE OF QUIET SUN TRANSITION REGION EMISSION?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmit, D. J.; De Pontieu, Bart

Dating back to the first observations of the on-disk corona, there has been a qualitative link between the photosphere’s magnetic network and enhanced transition-temperature plasma emission. These observations led to the development of a general model that describes emission structures through the partitioning of the atmospheric volume with different magnetic loop geometries that exhibit different energetic equilibria. Does the internetwork produce transition-temperature emission? What fraction of network flux connects to the corona? How does quiet Sun emission compare with low-activity Sun-like stars? In this work, we revisit the canonical model of the quiet Sun, with high-resolution observations from the Interfacemore » Region Imaging Spectrograph ( IRIS ) and HMI in hand, to address those questions. We use over 900 deep exposures of Si iv 1393 Å from IRIS along with nearly simultaneous HMI magnetograms to quantify the correlation between transition-temperature emission structures and magnetic field concentrations through a number of novel statistics. Our observational results are coupled with analysis of the Bifrost MHD model and a large-scale potential field model. Our results paint a complex portrait of the quiet Sun. We measure an emission signature in the distant internetwork that cannot be attributed to network contribution. We find that the dimmest regions of emission are not linked to the local vertical magnetic field. Using the MHD simulation, we categorize the emission contribution from cool mid-altitude loops and high-altitude coronal loops and discuss the potential emission contribution of spicules. Our results provide new constraints on the coupled solar atmosphere so that we can build on our understanding of how dynamic thermal and magnetic structures generate the observed phenomena in the transition region.« less

PCDD/F emissions from light-duty diesel vehicles operated under highway conditions and a diesel-engine based power generator.

PubMed

Rey, M D; Font, R; Aracil, I

2014-08-15

PCDD/F emissions from three light-duty diesel vehicles--two vans and a passenger car--have been measured in on-road conditions. We propose a new methodology for small vehicles: a sample of exhaust gas is collected by means of equipment based on United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) method 23 A for stationary stack emissions. The concentrations of O2, CO, CO2, NO, NO2 and SO2 have also been measured. Six tests were carried out at 90-100 km/h on a route 100 km long. Two additional tests were done during the first 10 min and the following 60 min of the run to assess the effect of the engine temperature on PCDD/F emissions. The emission factors obtained for the vans varied from 1800 to 8400 pg I-TEQ/Nm(3) for a 2004 model year van and 490-580 pg I-TEQ/Nm(3) for a 2006 model year van. Regarding the passenger car, one run was done in the presence of a catalyst and another without, obtaining emission factors (330-880 pg I-TEQ/Nm(3)) comparable to those of the modern van. Two other tests were carried out on a power generator leading to emission factors ranging from 31 to 78 pg I-TEQ/Nm(3). All the results are discussed and compared with literature. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global data set of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sindelarova, K.; Granier, Claire; Bouarar, I.

The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1) together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields were used to create a global emission dataset of biogenic VOCs available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980 - 2010. This dataset is called MEGAN-MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg(C) yr1 consisting of isoprene (70%), monoterpenes (11%), methanol (6%), acetone (3%), sesquiterpenes (2.5%) and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2 %. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different modelmore » input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of * 17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN-MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene in ventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the datasets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN-MACC estimates of isoprene and*-pinene showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements in the Amazon andthe model was able to capture the seasonal variation of emissions in this region.« less

A comparative assessment of economic-incentive and command-and-control instruments for air pollution and CO2 control in China's iron and steel sector.

PubMed

Liu, Zhaoyang; Mao, Xianqiang; Tu, Jianjun; Jaccard, Mark

2014-11-01

China's iron and steel sector is faced with increasing pressure to control both local air pollutants and CO2 simultaneously. Additional policy instruments are needed to co-control these emissions in this sector. This study quantitatively evaluates and compares two categories of emission reduction instruments, namely the economic-incentive (EI) instrument of a carbon tax, and the command-and-control (CAC) instrument of mandatory application of end-of-pipe emission control measures for CO2, SO2 and NOx. The comparative evaluation tool is an integrated assessment model, which combines a top-down computable general equilibrium sub-model and a bottom-up technology-based sub-model through a soft-linkage. The simulation results indicate that the carbon tax can co-control multiple pollutants, but the emission reduction rates are limited under the tax rates examined in this study. In comparison, the CAC instruments are found to have excellent effects on controlling different pollutants separately, but not jointly. Such results indicate that no single EI or CAC instrument is overwhelmingly superior. The environmental and economic effectiveness of an instrument highly depends on its specific attributes, and cannot be predicted by the general policy category. These findings highlight the necessity of clearer identification of policy target priorities, and detail-oriented and integrated policy-making among different governmental departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative Evaluation of Five Fire Emissions Datasets Using the GEOS-5 Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichoku, C. M.; Pan, X.; Chin, M.; Bian, H.; Darmenov, A.; Ellison, L.; Kucsera, T. L.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Petrenko, M. M.; Wang, J.; Ge, C.; Wiedinmyer, C.

2017-12-01

Wildfires and other types of biomass burning affect most vegetated parts of the globe, contributing 40% of the annual global atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, as well as significant amounts of numerous trace gases, such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane. Many of these smoke constituents affect the air quality and/or the climate system directly or through their interactions with solar radiation and cloud properties. However, fire emissions are poorly constrained in global and regional models, resulting in high levels of uncertainty in understanding their real impacts. With the advent of satellite remote sensing of fires and burned areas in the last couple of decades, a number of fire emissions products have become available for use in relevant research and applications. In this study, we evaluated five global biomass burning emissions datasets, namely: (1) GFEDv3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1); (2) GFEDv4s (Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires); (3) FEERv1 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0); (4) QFEDv2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4); and (5) Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) version 1.5. Overall, the spatial patterns of biomass burning emissions from these inventories are similar, although the magnitudes of the emissions can be noticeably different. The inventories derived using top-down approaches (QFEDv2.4 and FEERv1) are larger than those based on bottom-up approaches. For example, global organic carbon (OC) emissions in 2008 are: QFEDv2.4 (51.93 Tg), FEERv1 (28.48 Tg), FINN v1.5 (19.48 Tg), GFEDv3.1 (15.65 Tg) and GFEDv4s (13.76 Tg); representing a factor of 3.7 difference between the largest and the least. We also used all five biomass-burning emissions datasets to conduct aerosol simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5), and compared the resulting aerosol optical depth (AOD) output to the corresponding retrievals from MODIS and AERONET. Simulated AOD based on all five emissions inventories show significant underestimation in biomass burning dominated regions. Attributions of possible factors responsible for the differences among the inventories were further explored in Southern Africa and South America, two of the major biomass burning regions of the world.

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ringeval, B.; Houweling, S.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Spahni, R.; van Beek, R.; Joos, F.; Röckmann, T.

2014-03-01

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial-interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr-1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin, modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH4 emissions but we proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH4 emissions, and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes.

Improving the accuracy of vehicle emissions profiles for urban transportation greenhouse gas and air pollution inventories.

PubMed

Reyna, Janet L; Chester, Mikhail V; Ahn, Soyoung; Fraser, Andrew M

2015-01-06

Metropolitan greenhouse gas and air emissions inventories can better account for the variability in vehicle movement, fleet composition, and infrastructure that exists within and between regions, to develop more accurate information for environmental goals. With emerging access to high quality data, new methods are needed for informing transportation emissions assessment practitioners of the relevant vehicle and infrastructure characteristics that should be prioritized in modeling to improve the accuracy of inventories. The sensitivity of light and heavy-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) and conventional air pollutant (CAP) emissions to speed, weight, age, and roadway gradient are examined with second-by-second velocity profiles on freeway and arterial roads under free-flow and congestion scenarios. By creating upper and lower bounds for each factor, the potential variability which could exist in transportation emissions assessments is estimated. When comparing the effects of changes in these characteristics across U.S. cities against average characteristics of the U.S. fleet and infrastructure, significant variability in emissions is found to exist. GHGs from light-duty vehicles could vary by -2%-11% and CAP by -47%-228% when compared to the baseline. For heavy-duty vehicles, the variability is -21%-55% and -32%-174%, respectively. The results show that cities should more aggressively pursue the integration of emerging big data into regional transportation emissions modeling, and the integration of these data is likely to impact GHG and CAP inventories and how aggressively policies should be implemented to meet reductions. A web-tool is developed to aide cities in improving emissions uncertainty.

Development of in-vitro models to elucidate mechanisms of intrinsic cellular and tissue fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, Howard E.; Kolli, Venkateswara; Saha, Sanjoy; Zhang, Jian C.; Glasgold, Mark; Sacks, Peter G.; Alfano, Robert R.; Schantz, Stimson P.

1995-04-01

In vitro cell model systems have been used to study the mechanisms of intrinsic cellular and tissue fluorescence as a potential biomarker for cancer. Phenotypic characteristics of cancer that are different from normal tissue include changes in histoarchitecture, proliferation rates and differentiation. a nitrosmethlybenzylamine (NMBA)/rat esophageal carcinogenesis model (NMBA), a transforming growth factor beta (TGF- (beta) )/normal epithelial cell model, and a retinoic acid (RA)/multicellular tumor spheroid model (RAMTS) were used to assess fluorescence changes associated respectively with changes in histoarchitecture, proliferation rates and differentiation. A xenon based fluorescence spectrophotometer (Mediscience Corp.) was used to collect excitation and emission spectra. Two excitation scans ((lambda) Ex 200-360 nm, (lambda) Em 380 nm; (lambda) Ex 240-430 nm, (lambda) Em 450 nm) and two emission scans ((lambda) Ex 300 nm, (lambda) Em 320-580 nm; (lambda) Ex 340 nm, (lambda) Em 360-660 nm) were used to analyze the three model systems. Using the NMBA model. Differences were seen in the excitation scan ((lambda) Ex 200-360 nm, (lambda) Em 380 nm) and the emission scan ((lambda) Ex 340 nm, (lambda) Em 360-660 nm) when normal rat esophageal tissue was compared to hyperplastic and tumor tissue. In the (TGF-(beta) ) model, differences were seen in the excitation scan ((lambda) Ex 240-430 nm, (lambda) Em 450 nm) when comparing proliferation slowed (TGF-(beta) treated) epithelial cells to their untreated controls. In the RAMTS model, differences were seen with all four scans when RA treated multicellular tumor spheroids (nondifferentiating) were compared to untreated control cells (differentiating). The data indicate that fluorescence changes seen in these model systems may relate to changes in histoarchitecture, proliferation rates and differentiation. Their relationship to in vivo fluorescence changes seen in cancer patients remains to be elucidated.

Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myhre, Gunnar; Aas, Wenche; Ribu, Cherian; Collins, William; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Flanner, Mark; Forster, Piers; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Klimont, Zbigniew; Lund, Marianne T.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

Modelling of the urban concentrations of PM2.5 on a high resolution for a period of 35 years, for the assessment of lifetime exposure and health effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukkonen, Jaakko; Kangas, Leena; Kauhaniemi, Mari; Sofiev, Mikhail; Aarnio, Mia; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Kousa, Anu; Karppinen, Ari

2018-06-01

Reliable and self-consistent data on air quality are needed for an extensive period of time for conducting long-term, or even lifetime health impact assessments. We have modelled the urban-scale concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area for a period of 35 years, from 1980 to 2014. The regional background concentrations were evaluated based on reanalyses of the atmospheric composition on global and European scales, using the SILAM model. The high-resolution urban computations included both the emissions originated from vehicular traffic (separately exhaust and suspension emissions) and those from small-scale combustion, and were conducted using the road network dispersion model CAR-FMI and the multiple-source Gaussian dispersion model UDM-FMI. The modelled concentrations of PM2.5 agreed fairly well with the measured data at a regional background station and at four urban measurement stations, during 1999-2014. The modelled concentration trends were also evaluated for earlier years, until 1988, using proxy analyses. There was no systematic deterioration of the agreement of predictions and data for earlier years (the 1980s and 1990s), compared with the results for more recent years (2000s and early 2010s). The local vehicular emissions were about 5 times higher in the 1980s, compared with the emissions during the latest considered years. The local small-scale combustion emissions increased slightly over time. The highest urban concentrations of PM2.5 occurred in the 1980s; these have since decreased to about to a half of the highest values. In general, regional background was the largest contribution in this area. Vehicular exhaust has been the most important local source, but the relative shares of both small-scale combustion and vehicular non-exhaust emissions have increased in time. The study has provided long-term, high-resolution concentration databases on regional and urban scales that can be used for the assessment of health effects associated with air pollution.

Numerical Modeling of Fluorescence Emission Energy Dispersion in Luminescent Solar Concentrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lanfang; Sheng, Xing; Rogers, John; Nuzzo, Ralph

2013-03-01

We present a numerical modeling method and the corresponding experimental results, to address fluorescence emission dispersion for applications such as luminescent solar concentrator and light emitting diode color correction. Previously established modeling methods utilized a statistic-thermodynamic theory (Kenard-Stepnov etc.) that required a thorough understanding of the free energy landscape of the fluorophores. Some more recent work used an empirical approximation of the measured emission energy dispersion profile without considering anti-Stokes shifting during absorption and emission. In this work we present a technique for modeling fluorescence absorption and emission that utilizes the experimentally measured spectrum and approximates the observable Frank-Condon vibronic states as a continuum and takes into account thermodynamic energy relaxation by allowing thermal fluctuations. This new approximation method relaxes the requirement for knowledge of the fluorophore system and reduces demand on computing resources while still capturing the essence of physical process. We present simulation results of the energy distribution of emitted photons and compare them with experimental results with good agreement in terms of peak red-shift and intensity attenuation in a luminescent solar concentrator. This work is supported by the DOE `Light-Material Interactions in Energy Conversion' Energy Frontier Research Center under grant DE-SC0001293.

Top-down estimate of surface flux in the Los Angeles Basin using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: assessing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CO2 and their impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brioude, J.; Angevine, W. M.; Ahmadov, R.; Kim, S.-W.; Evan, S.; McKeen, S. A.; Hsie, E.-Y.; Frost, G. J.; Neuman, J. A.; Pollack, I. B.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Holloway, J.; Brown, S. S.; Nowak, J. B.; Roberts, J. M.; Wofsy, S. C.; Santoni, G. W.; Oda, T.; Trainer, M.

2013-04-01

We present top-down estimates of anthropogenic CO, NOx and CO2 surface fluxes at mesoscale using a Lagrangian model in combination with three different WRF model configurations, driven by data from aircraft flights during the CALNEX campaign in southern California in May-June 2010. The US EPA National Emission Inventory 2005 (NEI 2005) was the prior in the CO and NOx inversion calculations. The flux ratio inversion method, based on linear relationships between chemical species, was used to calculate the CO2 inventory without prior knowledge of CO2 surface fluxes. The inversion was applied to each flight to estimate the variability of single-flight-based flux estimates. In Los Angeles (LA) County, the uncertainties on CO and NOx fluxes were 10% and 15%, respectively. Compared with NEI 2005, the CO posterior emissions were lower by 43% in LA County and by 37% in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). NOx posterior emissions were lower by 32% in LA County and by 27% in the SoCAB. NOx posterior emissions were 40% lower on weekends relative to weekdays. The CO2 posterior estimates were 183 Tg yr-1 in SoCAB. A flight during ITCT (Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation) in 2002 was used to estimate emissions in the LA Basin in 2002. From 2002 to 2010, the CO and NOx posterior emissions decreased by 41% and 37%, respectively, in agreement with previous studies. Over the same time period, CO2 emissions increased by 10% in LA County but decreased by 4% in the SoCAB, a statistically insignificant change. Overall, the posterior estimates were in good agreement with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventory, with differences of 15% or less. However, the posterior spatial distribution in the basin was significantly different from CARB for NOx emissions. WRF-Chem mesoscale chemical-transport model simulations allowed an evaluation of differences in chemistry using different inventory assumptions, including NEI 2005, a gridded CARB inventory and the posterior inventories derived in this study. The biases in WRF-Chem ozone were reduced and correlations were increased using the posterior from this study compared with simulations with the two bottom-up inventories, suggesting that improving the spatial distribution of ozone precursor surface emissions is also important in mesoscale chemistry simulations.

Radiative effects due to North American anthropogenic and lightning emissions: Global and regional modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martini, Matus Novak

We analyze the contribution of North American (NA) lightning and anthropogenic emissions to summertime ozone concentrations, radiative forcing, and exports from North America using the global University of Maryland chemistry transport model (UMD-CTM) and the regional scale Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Lightning NO contributes by 15--20 ppbv to upper tropospheric ozone concentrations over the United States with the effects of NA lightning on ozone seen as far east as North Africa and Europe. Using the UMD-CTM, we compare changes in surface and column ozone amounts due to the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call with the natural variability in ozone due to changes in meteorology and lightning. Comparing early summer 2004 with 2002, surface ozone decreased by up to 5 ppbv due to the NO x SIP Call while changes in meteorology and lightning resulted in a 0.3--1.4 ppbv increase in surface ozone. Ozone column variability was driven primarily by changes in lightning NO emissions, especially over the North Atlantic. As part of our WRF-Chem analysis, we modify the radiation schemes to use model-calculated ozone (interactive ozone) instead of climatological ozone profiles and conduct multiple 4-day simulations of July 2007. We found that interactive ozone increased the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) by 3 W m-2 decreasing the bias with respect to remotely sensed OLR. The improvement is due to a high bias in the climatological ozone profiles. The interactive ozone had a small impact on mean upper troposphere temperature (-0.15°C). The UMD-CTM simulations indicate that NA anthropogenic emissions are responsible for more ozone export but less ozone radiative forcing than lightning NO emissions. Over the North Atlantic, NA anthropogenic emissions contributed 0.15--0.30 W m-2 to the net downward radiative flux at the tropopause while NA lightning contributed 0.30--0.50 W m-2. The ozone export from anthropogenic emissions was almost twice as large as that from lightning emissions. The WRF-Chem simulations show that the export of reactive nitrogen was 23%--28% of the boundary layer emissions and 26%--38% of the total emissions including lightning NO.

QUIC Transport and Dispersion Modeling of Vehicle Emissions in Cities for Better Public Health Assessments

PubMed Central

Brown, Michael J.; Williams, Michael D.; Nelson, Matthew A.; Werley, Kenneth A.

2015-01-01

The Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) plume modeling system is used to explore how the transport and dispersion of vehicle emissions in cities are impacted by the presence of buildings. Using downtown Philadelphia as a test case, notional vehicle emissions of gases and particles are specified as line source releases on a subset of the east–west and north–south streets. Cases were run in flat terrain and with 3D buildings present in order to show the differences in the model-computed outdoor concentration fields with and without buildings present. The QUIC calculations show that buildings result in regions with much higher concentrations and other areas with much lower concentrations when compared to the flat-earth case. On the roads with vehicle emissions, street-level concentrations were up to a factor of 10 higher when buildings were on either side of the street as compared to the flat-earth case due to trapping of pollutants between buildings. However, on roads without vehicle emissions and in other open areas, the concentrations were up to a factor of 100 times smaller as compared to the flat earth case because of vertical mixing of the vehicle emissions to building height in the cavity circulation that develops on the downwind side of unsheltered buildings. QUIC was also used to calculate infiltration of the contaminant into the buildings. Indoor concentration levels were found to be much lower than outdoor concentrations because of deposition onto indoor surfaces and particulate capture for buildings with filtration systems. Large differences in indoor concentrations from building to building resulted from differences in leakiness, air handling unit volume exchange rates, and filter type and for naturally ventilated buildings, whether or not the building was sheltered from the prevailing wind by a building immediately upwind. PMID:27867300

Fermi-LAT Observations of High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission Toward the Galactic Center

DOE PAGES

Ajello, M.

2016-02-26

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has provided the most detailed view to date of the emission towards the Galactic centre (GC) in high-energy γ-rays. This paper describes the analysis of data taken during the first 62 months of the mission in the energy range 1 - 100 GeV from a 15° X15° region about the direction of the GC, and implications for the interstellar emissions produced by cosmic ray (CR) particles interacting with the gas and radiation fields in the inner Galaxy and for the point sources detected. Specialised interstellar emission models (IEMs) are constructed that enable separation ofmore » the γ-ray emission from the inner ~ 1 kpc about the GC from the fore- and background emission from the Galaxy. Based on these models, the interstellar emission from CR electrons interacting with the interstellar radiation field via the inverse Compton (IC) process and CR nuclei inelastically scattering off the gas producing γ-rays via π⁰ decays from the inner ~ 1 kpc is determined. The IC contribution is found to be dominant in the region and strongly enhanced compared to previous studies. A catalog of point sources for the 15 °X 15 °region is self-consistently constructed using these IEMs: the First Fermi–LAT Inner Galaxy point source Catalog (1FIG). The spatial locations, fluxes, and spectral properties of the 1FIG sources are presented, and compared with γ-ray point sources over the same region taken from existing catalogs, including the Third Fermi–LAT Source Catalog (3FGL). In general, the spatial density of 1FIG sources differs from those in the 3FGL, which is attributed to the different treatments of the interstellar emission and energy ranges used by the respective analyses. Three 1FIG sources are found to spatially overlap with supernova remnants (SNRs) listed in Green’s SNR catalog; these SNRs have not previously been associated with high-energy γ-ray sources. Most 3FGL sources with known multi-wavelength counterparts are also found. However, the majority of 1FIG point sources are unassociated. After subtracting the interstellar emission and point-source contributions from the data a residual is found that is a sub-dominant fraction of the total flux. But, it is brighter than the γ-ray emission associated with interstellar gas in the inner ~ 1 kpc derived for the IEMs used in this paper, and comparable to the integrated brightness of the point sources in the region for energies & 3 GeV. If spatial templates that peak toward the GC are used to model the positive residual and included in the total model for the 1515°X° region, the agreement with the data improves, but they do not account for all the residual structure. The spectrum of the positive residual modelled with these templates has a strong dependence on the choice of IEM.« less

Satellite Mapping of Rain-Induced Nitric Oxide Emissions from Soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaegle, L.; Martin, R. V.; Chance, K.; Steinberger, L.; Kurosu, T. P.; Jacob, D. J.; Modi, A. I.; Yoboue, V.; Sigha-Nkamdjou, L.; Galy-Lacaux, C.

2004-01-01

We use space-based observations of NO2 columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) to map the spatial and seasonal variations of NOx emissions over Africa during 2000. The GOME observations show not only enhanced tropospheric NO2 columns from biomass burning during the dry season but also comparable enhancements from soil emissions during the rainy season over the Sahel. These soil emissions occur in strong pulses lasting 1-3 weeks following the onset of rain, and affect 3 million sq km of semiarid sub-Saharan savanna. Surface observations of NO2 from the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC)/Deposition of Biochemically Important Trace Species (DEBITS)/Africa (IDAF) network over West Africa provide further evidence for a strong role for microbial soil sources. By combining inverse modeling of GOME NO2 columns with space-based observations of fires, we estimate that soils contribute 3.3+/-1.8 TgN/year, similar to the biomass burning source (3.8+/-2.1 TgN/year), and thus account for 40% of surface NO(x) emissions over Africa. Extrapolating to all the tropics, we estimate a 7.3 TgN/year biogenic soil source, which is a factor of 2 larger compared to model-based inventories but agrees with observation-based inventories. These large soil NO(x) emissions are likely to significantly contribute to the ozone enhancement originating from tropical Africa.

Comparing the greenhouse gas emissions from three alternative waste combustion concepts.

PubMed

Vainikka, Pasi; Tsupari, Eemeli; Sipilä, Kai; Hupa, Mikko

2012-03-01

Three alternative condensing mode power and combined heat and power (CHP) waste-to-energy concepts were compared in terms of their impacts on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a heat and power generation system. The concepts included (i) grate, (ii) bubbling fluidised bed (BFB) and (iii) circulating fluidised bed (CFB) combustion of waste. The BFB and CFB take advantage of advanced combustion technology which enabled them to reach electric efficiency up to 35% and 41% in condensing mode, respectively, whereas 28% (based on the lower heating value) was applied for the grate fired unit. A simple energy system model was applied in calculating the GHG emissions in different scenarios where coal or natural gas was substituted in power generation and mix of fuel oil and natural gas in heat generation by waste combustion. Landfilling and waste transportation were not considered in the model. GHG emissions were reduced significantly in all of the considered scenarios where the waste combustion concepts substituted coal based power generation. With the exception of condensing mode grate incinerator the different waste combustion scenarios resulted approximately in 1 Mton of fossil CO(2)-eq. emission reduction per 1 Mton of municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerated. When natural gas based power generation was substituted by electricity from the waste combustion significant GHG emission reductions were not achieved. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE PAGES

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; ...

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Constraining ammonia dairy emissions during NASA DISCOVER-AQ California: surface and airborne observation comparisons with CMAQ simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D. J.; Liu, Z.; Sun, K.; Tao, L.; Nowak, J. B.; Bambha, R.; Michelsen, H. A.; Zondlo, M. A.

2014-12-01

Agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions are highly uncertain in current bottom-up inventories. Ammonium nitrate is a dominant component of fine aerosols in agricultural regions such as the Central Valley of California, especially during winter. Recent high resolution regional modeling efforts in this region have found significant ammonium nitrate and gas-phase NH3 biases during summer. We compare spatially-resolved surface and boundary layer gas-phase NH3 observations during NASA DISCOVER-AQ California with Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional model simulations driven by the EPA NEI 2008 inventory to constrain wintertime NH3 model biases. We evaluate model performance with respect to aerosol partitioning, mixing and deposition to constrain contributions to modeled NH3 concentration biases in the Central Valley Tulare dairy region. Ammonia measurements performed with an open-path mobile platform on a vehicle are gridded to 4 km resolution hourly background concentrations. A peak detection algorithm is applied to remove local feedlot emission peaks. Aircraft NH3, NH4+ and NO3- observations are also compared with simulations extracted along the flight tracks. We find NH3 background concentrations in the dairy region are underestimated by three to five times during winter and NH3 simulations are moderately correlated with observations (r = 0.36). Although model simulations capture NH3 enhancements in the dairy region, these simulations are biased low by 30-60 ppbv NH3. Aerosol NH4+ and NO3- are also biased low in CMAQ by three and four times respectively. Unlike gas-phase NH3, CMAQ simulations do not capture typical NH4+ or NO3- enhancements observed in the dairy region. In contrast, boundary layer height simulations agree well with observations within 13%. We also address observational constraints on simulated NH3 deposition fluxes. These comparisons suggest that NEI 2008 wintertime dairy emissions are underestimated by a factor of three to five. We test sensitivity to emissions by increasing the NEI 2008 NH3 emissions uniformly across the dairy region and evaluate the impact on modeled concentrations. These results are applicable to improving predictions of ammoniated aerosol loading and highlight the value of mobile platform spatial NH3 measurements to constrain emission inventories.

Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2016-03-01

A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

Modeling study of natural emissions, source apportionment, and emission control of atmospheric mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shetty, Suraj K.

Mercury (Hg) is a toxic pollutant and is important to understand its cycling in the environment. In this dissertation, a number of modeling investigations were conducted to better understand the emission from natural surfaces, the source-receptor relationship of the emissions, and emission reduction of atmospheric mercury. The first part of this work estimates mercury emissions from vegetation, soil and water surfaces using a number of natural emission processors and detailed (LAI) Leaf Area Index data from GIS (Geographic Information System) satellite products. East Asian domain was chosen as it contributes nearly 50% of the global anthropogenic mercury emissions into the atmosphere. The estimated annual natural mercury emissions (gaseous elemental mercury) in the domain are 834 Mg yr-1 with 462 Mg yr-1 contributing from China. Compared to anthropogenic sources, natural sources show greater seasonal variability (highest in simmer). The emissions are significant, sometimes dominant, contributors to total mercury emission in the regions. The estimates provide possible explanation for the gaps between the anthropogenic emission estimates based on activity data and the emission inferred from field observations in the regions. To understand the contribution of domestic emissions to mercury deposition in the United States, the second part of the work applies the mercury model of Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling system (CMAQ-Hg v4.6) to apportion the various emission sources attributing to the mercury wet and dry deposition in the 6 United States receptor regions. Contributions to mercury deposition from electric generating units (EGU), iron and steel industry (IRST), industrial point sources excluding EGU and IRST (OIPM), the remaining anthropogenic sources (RA), natural processes (NAT), and out-of-boundary transport (BC) in domain was estimated. The model results for 2005 compared reasonably well to field observations made by MDN (Mercury Deposition Network) and CAMNet (Canadian Atmospheric Mercury Measurement Network). The model estimated a total deposition of 474 Mg yr-1 to the CONUS (Contiguous United States) domain, with two-thirds being dry deposited. Reactive gaseous mercury contributed the most to 60% of deposition. Emission speciation distribution is a key factor for local deposition as contribution from large point sources can be as high as 75% near (< 100 km) the emission sources, indicating that emission reduction may result in direct deposition decrease near the source locations. Among the sources, BC contributes to about 68% to 91% of total deposition. Excluding the BC's contribution, EGU contributes to nearly 50% of deposition caused by CONUS emissions in the Northeast, Southeast and East Central regions, while emissions from natural processes are more important in the Pacific and West Central regions (contributing up to 40% of deposition). The modeling results implies that implementation of the new emission standards proposed by USEPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency) would significantly benefit regions that have larger contributions from EGU sources. Control of mercury emissions from coal combustion processes has attracted great attention due to its toxicity and the emission-control regulations and has lead to advancement in state-of-the-art control technologies that alleviate the impact of mercury on ecosystem and human health. This part of the work applies a sorption model to simulate adsorption of mercury in flue gases, onto a confined-bed of activated carbon. The model's performances were studied at various flue gas flow rates, inlet mercury concentrations and adsorption bed temperatures. The process simulated a flue gas, with inlet mercury concentration of 300 ppb, entering at a velocity of 0.3 m s-1 from the bottom into a fixed bed (inside bed diameter of 1 m and 3 m bed height; bed temperature of 25 °C) of activated carbon (particle size of 0.004 m with density of 0.5 g cm-3 and surface area of 90.25 cm2 g -1). The model result demonstrated that a batch of activated carbon bed was capable of controlling mercury emission for approximately 275 days after which further mercury uptake starts to decrease till it reaches about 500 days when additional control ceases. An increase in bed temperature significantly reduces mercury sorption capacity of the activated carbon. Increase in flue gas flow rate may result in faster consumption of sorption capacity initially but at a later stage, the sorption rate decreases due to reduced sorption capacity. Thus, overall sorption rate remains unaffected. The activated carbon's effective life (time to reach saturation) is not affected by inlet mercury concentration, implying that the designing and operation of a mercury sorption process can be done independently. The results provide quantitative indication for designing efficient confined-bed process to remove mercury from flue gases.

Ecological controls on N2O emission in surface litter and near-surface soil of a managed grassland: modelling and measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Robert F.; Neftel, Albrecht; Calanca, Pierluigi

2016-06-01

Large variability in N2O emissions from managed grasslands may occur because most emissions originate in surface litter or near-surface soil where variability in soil water content (θ) and temperature (Ts) is greatest. To determine whether temporal variability in θ and Ts of surface litter and near-surface soil could explain this in N2O emissions, a simulation experiment was conducted with ecosys, a comprehensive mathematical model of terrestrial ecosystems in which processes governing N2O emissions were represented at high temporal and spatial resolution. Model performance was verified by comparing N2O emissions, CO2 and energy exchange, and θ and Ts modelled by ecosys with those measured by automated chambers, eddy covariance (EC) and soil sensors on an hourly timescale during several emission events from 2004 to 2009 in an intensively managed pasture at Oensingen, Switzerland. Both modelled and measured events were induced by precipitation following harvesting and subsequent fertilizing or manuring. These events were brief (2-5 days) with maximum N2O effluxes that varied from < 1 mgNm-2h-1 in early spring and autumn to > 3 mgNm-2h-1 in summer. Only very small emissions were modelled or measured outside these events. In the model, emissions were generated almost entirely in surface litter or near-surface (0-2 cm) soil, at rates driven by N availability with fertilization vs. N uptake with grassland regrowth and by O2 supply controlled by litter and soil wetting relative to O2 demand from microbial respiration. In the model, NOx availability relative to O2 limitation governed both the reduction of more oxidized electron acceptors to N2O and the reduction of N2O to N2, so that the magnitude of N2O emissions was not simply related to surface and near-surface θ and Ts. Modelled N2O emissions were found to be sensitive to defoliation intensity and timing which controlled plant N uptake and soil θ and Ts prior to and during emission events. Reducing leaf area index (LAI) remaining after defoliation to half that under current practice and delaying harvesting by 5 days raised modelled N2O emissions by as much as 80 % during subsequent events and by an average of 43 % annually. Modelled N2O emissions were also found to be sensitive to surface soil properties. Increasing near-surface bulk density by 10 % raised N2O emissions by as much as 100 % during emission events and by an average of 23 % annually. Relatively small spatial variation in management practices and soil surface properties could therefore cause the large spatial variation in N2O emissions commonly found in field studies. The global warming potential from annual N2O emissions in this intensively managed grassland largely offset those from net C uptake in both modelled and field experiments. However, model results indicated that this offset could be adversely affected by suboptimal land management and soil properties.

Indirect Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Major Rivers in the World: Integration of a Process-based Model with Observational Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Yao, Y.; Xu, R.; Yang, J.; WANG, Z.; Pan, S.; Tian, H.

2016-12-01

The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O), one of major greenhouse gases, has increased over 121% compared with the preindustrial level, and most of the increase arises from anthropogenic activities. Previous studies suggested that indirect emissions from global rivers remains a large source of uncertainty among all the N2O sources and restricted the assessment of N2O budget at both regional and global scales. Here, we have integrated a coupled biogeochemical model (DLEM) with observational data to quantify the magnitude and spatio-temporal variation of riverine N2O emission and attribute the environmental controls of indirect N2O emission from major rivers in the world. Our preliminary results indicate that the magnitude of indirect N2O emission from rivers is closely associated with the stream orders. To include N2O emissions from headwater streams is essential for reducing uncertainty in the estimation of indirect N2O emission. By implementing a set of factorial simulations, we have further quantified the relative contributions of climate, nitrogen deposition, nitrogen fertilizer use, and manure application to riverine N2O emission. Finally, this study has identified major knowledge gaps and uncertainties associated with model structure, parameters and input data that need to be improved in future research.

Role of natural gas in meeting an electric sector emissions ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

With advances in natural gas extraction technologies, there is an increase in availability of domestic natural gas, and natural gas is gaining a larger share of use as a fuel in electricity production. At the power plant, natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel than coal, but uncertainties exist in the amount of methane leakage occurring upstream in the extraction and production of natural gas. At high leakage levels, these methane emissions could outweigh the benefits of switching from coal to natural gas. This analysis uses the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of the U.S. energy system over a series of model runs in which the power sector is asked to meet a specific CO2 reduction target and the availability of natural gas changes. Scenarios are run with a range of upstream methane emission leakage rates from natural gas production. While the total CO2 emissions are reduced in most scenarios, total greenhouse gas emissions show an increase or no change when both natural gas availability and methane emissions from natural gas production are high. Article presents summary of results from an analyses of natural gas resource availability and power sector emissions reduction strategies under different estimates of methane leakage rates during natural gas extraction and production. This was study was undertaken as part of the Energy Modeling Forum Study #31:

Sensitivity of air pollution simulations with LOTOS-EUROS to the temporal distribution of anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mues, A.; Kuenen, J.; Hendriks, C.; Manders, A.; Segers, A.; Scholz, Y.; Hueglin, C.; Builtjes, P.; Schaap, M.

2014-01-01

In this study the sensitivity of the model performance of the chemistry transport model (CTM) LOTOS-EUROS to the description of the temporal variability of emissions was investigated. Currently the temporal release of anthropogenic emissions is described by European average diurnal, weekly and seasonal time profiles per sector. These default time profiles largely neglect the variation of emission strength with activity patterns, region, species, emission process and meteorology. The three sources dealt with in this study are combustion in energy and transformation industries (SNAP1), nonindustrial combustion (SNAP2) and road transport (SNAP7). First of all, the impact of neglecting the temporal emission profiles for these SNAP categories on simulated concentrations was explored. In a second step, we constructed more detailed emission time profiles for the three categories and quantified their impact on the model performance both separately as well as combined. The performance in comparison to observations for Germany was quantified for the pollutants NO2, SO2 and PM10 and compared to a simulation using the default LOTOS-EUROS emission time profiles. The LOTOS-EUROS simulations were performed for the year 2006 with a temporal resolution of 1 h and a horizontal resolution of approximately 25 × 25km2. In general the largest impact on the model performance was found when neglecting the default time profiles for the three categories. The daily average correlation coefficient for instance decreased by 0.04 (NO2), 0.11 (SO2) and 0.01 (PM10) at German urban background stations compared to the default simulation. A systematic increase in the correlation coefficient is found when using the new time profiles. The size of the increase depends on the source category, component and station. Using national profiles for road transport showed important improvements in the explained variability over the weekdays as well as the diurnal cycle for NO2. The largest impact of the SNAP1 and 2 profiles were found for SO2. When using all new time profiles simultaneously in one simulation, the daily average correlation coefficient increased by 0.05 (NO2), 0.07 (SO2) and 0.03 (PM10) at urban background stations in Germany. This exercise showed that to improve the performance of a CTM, a better representation of the distribution of anthropogenic emission in time is recommendable. This can be done by developing a dynamical emission model that takes into account regional specific factors and meteorology.

Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012 : impact of climate and land use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-Francois; Bauwens, Maite; Guenther, Alex; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2014-05-01

Due to the scarcity of observational contraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. This study aims at improving upon current bottom-up estimates, and investigate the temporal evolution of isoprene fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. For that, we use the MEGAN model and incorporate (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation constrained by surface network measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed. These effects lead to a significant reduction of the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain compared to the standard simulation. The bottom-up emissions are evaluated using satellite-based emission estimates derived from inverse modelling constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007-2012. The top-down estimates support our assumptions and confirm the lower isoprene emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia.

A forward model for the helium plume effect and the interpretation of helium charge exchange measurements at ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappatou, A.; McDermott, R. M.; Pütterich, T.; Dux, R.; Geiger, B.; Jaspers, R. J. E.; Donné, A. J. H.; Viezzer, E.; Cavedon, M.; the ASDEX Upgrade Team

2018-05-01

The analysis of the charge exchange measurements of helium is hindered by an additional emission contributing to the spectra, the helium ‘plume’ emission (Fonck et al 1984 Phys. Rev. A 29 3288), which complicates the interpretation of the measurements. The plume emission is indistinguishable from the active charge exchange signal when standard analysis of the spectra is applied and its intensity is of comparable magnitude for ASDEX Upgrade conditions, leading to a significant overestimation of the He2+ densities if not properly treated. Furthermore, the spectral line shape of the plume emission is non-Gaussian and leads to wrong ion temperature and flow measurements when not taken into account. A kinetic model for the helium plume emission has been developed for ASDEX Upgrade. The model is benchmarked against experimental measurements and is shown to capture the underlying physics mechanisms of the plume effect, as it can reproduce the experimental spectra and provides consistent values for the ion temperature, plasma rotation, and He2+ density.

Current and future contributions of local emissions from shipping and hydrocarbon extraction flaring to short lived pollutants in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marelle, L.; Raut, J. C.; Law, K.; Thomas, J. L.; Fast, J. D.; Berg, L. K.; Shrivastava, M. B.; Easter, R. C.; Herber, A. B.

2015-12-01

The Arctic is increasingly open to human activity due to rapid Arctic warming, associated with decreased sea ice extent and snow cover. While pollution from in-Arctic sources is currently low, oil and gas extraction and marine traffic could become a significant future source of short-lived pollutants (aerosols, ozone) in the Arctic. It is currently unclear if these local sources might become significant compared to the long-range transport of anthropogenic pollution from the midlatitudes, which is currently the main source of Arctic pollution. Here, we investigate the current (2012) and future (2050) impact of emissions from shipping and oil and gas extraction on Arctic aerosols and ozone, in relation to emissions from long-range transport. These impacts are determined by performing 6-month long, quasi-hemispheric simulations over the Arctic region with the WRF-Chem model. Our regional simulations include up-to-date representations of cloud/aerosol interactions and secondary organic aerosol formation developed recently for WRF-Chem. In order to determine the impact of Arctic shipping and oil and gas extraction, we use recent emission inventories by Winther et al., 2014 for local shipping and ECLIPSEv5 for oil and gas flaring. Both inventories suggest that current and future emissions from these sources are higher than previous estimates. Simulations are evaluated using measurements at Arctic surface sites and aircraft campaigns (ACCESS, YAK) in 2012. Model results are then used to assess the impact of Arctic shipping and oil and gas flaring on modeled surface aerosol and ozone concentrations, direct aerosol and ozone radiative effects, indirect aerosol radiative effects, and aerosol deposition. Results are used to determine if these local emissions are expected to have a significant influence on these quantities at the local or the regional scale, compared to emissions transported from the midlatitudes and to other emission sources, including boreal fires.

Mercury emission and dispersion models from soils contaminated by cinnabar mining and metallurgy.

PubMed

Llanos, Willians; Kocman, David; Higueras, Pablo; Horvat, Milena

2011-12-01

The laboratory flux measurement system (LFMS) and dispersion models were used to investigate the kinetics of mercury emission flux (MEF) from contaminated soils. Representative soil samples with respect to total Hg concentration (26-9770 μg g(-1)) surrounding a decommissioned mercury-mining area (Las Cuevas Mine), and a former mercury smelter (Cerco Metalúrgico de Almadenejos), in the Almadén mercury mining district (South Central Spain), were collected. Altogether, 14 samples were analyzed to determine the variation in mercury emission flux (MEF) versus distance from the sources, regulating two major environmental parameters comprising soil temperature and solar radiation. In addition, the fraction of the water-soluble mercury in these samples was determined in order to assess how MEF from soil is related to the mercury in the aqueous soil phase. Measured MEFs ranged from less than 140 to over 10,000 ng m(-2) h(-1), with the highest emissions from contaminated soils adjacent to point sources. A significant decrease of MEF was then observed with increasing distance from these sites. Strong positive effects of both temperature and solar radiation on MEF was observed. Moreover, MEF was found to occur more easily in soils with higher proportions of soluble mercury compared to soils where cinnabar prevails. Based on the calculated Hg emission rates and with the support of geographical information system (GIS) tools and ISC AERMOD software, dispersion models for atmospheric mercury were implemented. In this way, the gaseous mercury plume generated by the soil-originated emissions at different seasons was modeled. Modeling efforts revealed that much higher emissions and larger mercury plumes are generated in dry and warm periods (summer), while the plume is smaller and associated with lower concentrations of atmospheric mercury during colder periods with higher wind activity (fall). Based on the calculated emissions and the model implementation, yearly emissions from the "Cerco Metalúrgico de Almadenejos" decommissioned metallurgical precinct were estimated at 16.4 kg Hg y(-1), with significant differences between seasons.

Effect of different emission inventories on modeled ozone and carbon monoxide in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amnuaylojaroen, T.; Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Carmichael, G. R.; Kreasuwun, J.; Prasitwattanaseree, S.; Chantara, S.

2014-12-01

In order to improve our understanding of air quality in Southeast Asia, the anthropogenic emissions inventory must be well represented. In this work, we apply different anthropogenic emission inventories in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) version 3.3 using Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) gas-phase chemistry and Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosols to examine the differences in predicted carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) surface mixing ratios for Southeast Asia in March and December 2008. The anthropogenic emission inventories include the Reanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO), the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B (INTEX-B), the MACCity emissions (adapted from the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate and megacity Zoom for the Environment projects), the Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study (SEAC4RS) emissions, and a combination of MACCity and SEAC4RS emissions. Biomass-burning emissions are from the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (FINNv1) model. WRF-Chem reasonably predicts the 2 m temperature, 10 m wind, and precipitation. In general, surface CO is underpredicted by WRF-Chem while surface O3 is overpredicted. The NO2 tropospheric column predicted by WRF-Chem has the same magnitude as observations, but tends to underpredict the NO2 column over the equatorial ocean and near Indonesia. Simulations using different anthropogenic emissions produce only a slight variability of O3 and CO mixing ratios, while biomass-burning emissions add more variability. The different anthropogenic emissions differ by up to 30% in CO emissions, but O3 and CO mixing ratios averaged over the land areas of the model domain differ by ~4.5% and ~8%, respectively, among the simulations. Biomass-burning emissions create a substantial increase for both O3 and CO by ~29% and ~16%, respectively, when comparing the March biomass-burning period to the December period with low biomass-burning emissions. The simulations show that none of the anthropogenic emission inventories are better than the others for predicting O3 surface mixing ratios. However, the simulations with different anthropogenic emission inventories do differ in their predictions of CO surface mixing ratios producing variations of ~30% for March and 10-20% for December at Thai surface monitoring sites.

Emission properties and back-bombardment for CeB{sub 6} compared to LaB{sub 6}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bakr, Mahmoud, E-mail: m-a-bakr@iae.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Kawai, M.; Kii, T.

The emission properties of CeB{sub 6} compared to LaB{sub 6} thermionic cathodes have been measured using an electrostatic DC gun. Obtaining knowledge of the emission properties is the first step in understanding the back-bombardment effect that limits wide usage of thermionic radio-frequency electron guns. The effect of back-bombardment electrons on CeB{sub 6} compared to LaB{sub 6} was studied using a numerical simulation model. The results show that for 6 μs pulse duration with input radio-frequency power of 8 MW, CeB{sub 6} should experience 14% lower temperature increase and 21% lower current density rise compared to LaB{sub 6}. We conclude that CeB{submore » 6} has the potential to become the future replacement for LaB{sub 6} thermionic cathodes in radio-frequency electron guns.« less

Dust Emissions, Transport, and Deposition Simulated with the NASA Finite-Volume General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colarco, Peter; daSilva, Arlindo; Ginoux, Paul; Chin, Mian; Lin, S.-J.

2003-01-01

Mineral dust aerosols have radiative impacts on Earth's atmosphere, have been implicated in local and regional air quality issues, and have been identified as vectors for transporting disease pathogens and bringing mineral nutrients to terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems. We present for the first time dust simulations using online transport and meteorological analysis in the NASA Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM). Our dust formulation follows the formulation in the offline Georgia Institute of Technology-Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART) using a topographical source for dust emissions. We compare results of the FVGCM simulations with GOCART, as well as with in situ and remotely sensed observations. Additionally, we estimate budgets of dust emission and transport into various regions.

Estimation of Anthropogenic Heat Emissions in Delhi, India and Their Role in Urban Heat Island Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhati, S.; Mohan, M.

2016-12-01

Energy consumption in the urban environment impacts the urban surface energy budget and leads to the emission of anthropogenic sensible heat into the atmosphere. Anthropogenic heat (AH) can vary both in time and space, and are not readily measured. In present study, anthropogenic heat emissions have been estimated using an inventory approach for Delhi. The main sources that have been considered are electricity consumption, vehicular emissions, fuel consumption in domestic sector and waste heat from power plants. Total estimated anthropogenic heat is apportioned gridwise (2 km2) and incorporated in the WRF (version 3.5) model coupled with single-layer Urban canopy model (UCM) to assess the impact of these emissions on urban heat island effect in Delhi. Vehicular emissions have been found to be highest contributor to anthropogenic heat emissions (47%) followed by electricity consumption (28%), domestic fuel consumption (16%) and waste heat from power plants (9%). Highest annual average anthropogenic heat flux was estimated to be 25.2 Wm-2. High flux zones are observed in east Delhi and densely occupied and commercial zones of Sitaram Bazar and Connaught Place. Inclusion of anthropogenic heat emissions in the model improves model performance for near surface temperature as well as urban heat island intensities. Maximum simulated night-time UHI improves from 5.95°C (without AH) to 6.24°C (with AH) against observed value of 6.68°C, thereby indicating positive contribution of anthropogenic heat emissions along with urban canopy towards UHI effect in Delhi. Similarly, spatial distribution and UHI hotspots are found to be comparatively closer to corresponding observed distribution and hotspots with anthropogenic heat emissions being added to the WRF model. Overall, relatively improved model performance is indicative of the impact of anthropogenic heat emissions in local urban meteorology and urban heat island effect in Delhi. Hence, rising population and change in land use-cover and associated anthropogenic activities call for strategic mitigation measures in the city to prevent further strengthening of heat island effect.

Trace Gases and Aerosols Simulated Over the Indian Domain: Evaluation of the Model Wrf-Chem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, M.; Yadav, A.; Tripathi, S. N.; Venkataraman, C.; Kanawade, V. P.

2012-12-01

As the anthropogenic emissions from the Asian countries contribute substantially to the global aerosol loading, the study of the distribution of trace gases and aerosols over this region has received increasing attention in recent years. In the present work, the aerosol properties over the Indian domain during the pre-monsoon season has been addressed. The "online" meteorological and chemical transport Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model has been implemented over Indian subcontinent for three consecutive summers in 2008, 2009 and 2010.The initial and boundary conditions are obtained from NCAR reanalysis data. The global emission inventories (REanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) and Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)) have been used and are projected for the period of study using the method provided in Ohara et al. (2007). The emission rates of sulfur dioxide, black carbon, organic carbon and PM2.5 available in the global inventory are replaced with the high resolution emission inventory developed over India for the present study. The model simulates meteorological parameters, trace gases and particulate matter. Simulated mixing ratios of trace gases (Ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and SO2) are compared with ground based as well as satellite observations over India with specific focus on Indo-Gangetic Plain. Simulated aerosol optical depth are in good agreement with those observed by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The vertical profiles of extinction coefficient have been compared with the Micro Pulse Lidar Network (MPLnet) data. The simulated mass concentration of BC shows very good agreement with those observed at a few ground stations. The vertical profiles of BC have also been compared with aircraft observations carried out during summer of 2008 and 2009, resulting in good agreement. This study shows that WRF-Chem model captures many important features of the observations and therefore can be used for understanding and forecasting regional weather patterns over Indian subcontinent. Acknowledgements: The author MM was supported by the DST-Fast Track fellowship. References: Ohara, T., H. Akimoto, J. Kurokawa, N. Horii, K. Yamaji, X. Yan, and T. Hayasaka, An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980-2020, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4419, doi:10.5194/acp744192007, 2007.

Assessment of volatile organic compound emissions from ecosystems of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinger, L. F.; Li, Q.-J.; Guenther, A. B.; Greenberg, J. P.; Baker, B.; Bai, J.-H.

2002-11-01

Isoprene, monoterpene, and other volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from grasslands, shrublands, forests, and peatlands in China were characterized to estimate their regional magnitudes and to compare these emissions with those from landscapes of North America, Europe, and Africa. Ecological and VOC emission sampling was conducted at 52 sites centered in and around major research stations located in seven different regions of China: Inner Mongolia (temperate), Changbai Mountain (boreal-temperate), Beijing Mountain (temperate), Dinghu Mountain (subtropical), Ailao Mountain (subtropical), Kunming (subtropical), and Xishuangbanna (tropical). Transects were used to sample plant species and growth form composition, leafy (green) biomass, and leaf area in forests representing nearly all the major forest types of China. Leafy biomass was determined using generic algorithms based on tree diameter, canopy structure, and absolute cover. Measurements of VOC emissions were made on 386 of the 541 recorded species using a portable photo-ionization detector method. For 105 species, VOC emissions were also measured using a flow-through leaf cuvette sampling/gas chromatography analysis method. Results indicate that isoprene and monoterpene emissions, as well as leafy biomass, vary systematically along gradients of ecological succession in the same manner found in previous studies in the United States, Canada, and Africa. Applying these results to a regional VOC emissions model, we arrive at a value of 21 Tg C for total annual biogenic VOC emissions from China, compared to 5 Tg C of VOCs released annually from anthropogenic sources there. The isoprene and monoterpene emissions are nearly the same as those reported for Europe, which is comparable in size to China.

Global Gridded Emission Inventories of Pentabrominated Diphenyl Ether (PeBDE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi-Fan; Tian, Chongguo; Yang, Meng; Jia, Hongliang; Ma, Jianmin; Li, Dacheng

2010-05-01

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are flame retardants widely used in many everyday products such as cars, furniture, textiles, and other electronic equipment. The commercial PBDEs have three major technical mixtures: penta-(PeBDE), octa-(OBDE) and decabromodiphenyl ethers (DeBDE). PeBDE is a mixture of several BDE congeners, such as BDE-47, -99, and -100, and has been included as a new member of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) under the 2009 Stockholm Convention. In order to produce gridded emission inventories of PeBDE on a global scale, information of production, consumption, emission, and physiochemical properties of PeBDE have been searched for published papers, government reports, and internet publications. A methodology to estimate the emissions of PeBDE has been developed and global gridded emission inventories of 2 major congener in PeBDE mixture, BDE-47 and -99, on a 1 degree by 1degree latitude/longitude resolution for 2005 have been compiled. Using these emission inventories as input data, the Canadian Model for Environmental Transport of Organochlorine Pesticides (CanMETOP) model was used to simulate the transport of these chemicals and their concentrations in air were calculated for the year of 2005. The modeled air concentration of BDE-47 and -99 were compared with the monitoring air concentrations of these two congeners in the same year obtained from renowned international/national monitoring programs, such as Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS), the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN), and the Chinese POPs Soil and Air Monitoring Program (SAMP), and significant correlations between the modeled results and the monitoring data were found, indicating the high quality of the produced emission inventories of BDE-47 and -99. Keywords: Pentabrominated Diphenyl Ether (PeBDE), Emission Inventories, Global, Model

Influence of asymmetries in the magnetic draping pattern at Titan on the emission of energetic neutral atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabanovic, Slawa; Feyerabend, Moritz; Simon, Sven; Meeks, Zachary; Wulms, Veit

2018-03-01

We model the emission of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) that are generated by the interaction between energetic ions from Saturn's magnetosphere and neutrals from the upper atmosphere of the giant planet's largest moon Titan. The trajectories of the parent ions and the resulting ENA emission morphology are highly sensitive to the electromagnetic field configuration near the moon. We therefore compare the ENA emission pattern for spatially homogeneous fields to the emission obtained from a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and a hybrid (kinetic ions, fluid electrons) model of Titan's magnetospheric interaction, by computing the trajectories of several billion energetic test particles. While the MHD model takes into account the draping of the magnetic field lines around Titan, the hybrid approach also considers the significant asymmetries in the electromagnetic fields due to the large gyroradii of pick-up ions from Titan's ionosphere. In all three models, the upstream parameters correspond to the conditions during Cassini's TA flyby of Titan. The shape, magnitude, and location of the ENA emission maxima vary considerably between these three field configurations. The magnetic pile-up region at Titan's ramside deflects a large number of the energetic parent ions, thereby reducing the ENA flux. However, the draped magnetic field lines in Titan's lobes rotate the gyration planes of the incident energetic ions, thereby facilitating the observable ENA production. Overall, the ENA flux calculated for the MHD model is weaker than the emission obtained for the electromagnetic fields from the hybrid code. In addition, we systematically investigate the dependency of the ENA emission morphology on the energy of the parent ions and on the upstream magnetic field strength.

Exploring dust emission responses to land cover change using an ecological land classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galloza, Magda S.; Webb, Nicholas P.; Bleiweiss, Max P.; Winters, Craig; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Ayers, Eldon

2018-06-01

Despite efforts to quantify the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion, assessment uncertainty remains large. We address this uncertainty by evaluating the application of ecological site concepts and state-and-transition models (STMs) for detecting and quantitatively describing the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion. We apply a dust emission model over a rangeland study area in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, New Mexico, USA, and evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of modelled horizontal sediment mass flux and dust emission in the context of ecological sites and their vegetation states; representing a diversity of land cover types. Our results demonstrate how the impacts of land cover change on dust emission can be quantified, compared across land cover classes, and interpreted in the context of an ecological model that encapsulates land management intensity and change. Results also reveal the importance of established weaknesses in the dust model soil characterisation and drag partition scheme, which appeared generally insensitive to the impacts of land cover change. New models that address these weaknesses, coupled with ecological site concepts and field measurements across land cover types, could significantly reduce assessment uncertainties and provide opportunities for identifying land management options.

Performance of the JULES land surface model for UK Biogenic VOC emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayman, Garry; Comyn-Platt, Edward; Vieno, Massimo; Langford, Ben

2017-04-01

Emissions of biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) are important for air quality and tropospheric composition. Through their contribution to the production of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA), biogenic VOCs indirectly contribute to climate forcing and climate feedbacks [1]. Biogenic VOCs encompass a wide range of compounds and are produced by plants for growth, development, reproduction, defence and communication [2]. There are both biological and physico-chemical controls on emissions [3]. Only a few of the many biogenic VOCs are of wider interest and only two or three (isoprene and the monoterpenes, α- and β-pinene) are represented in chemical transport models. We use the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), the UK community land surface model, to estimate biogenic VOC emission fluxes. JULES is a process-based model that describes the water, energy and carbon balances and includes temperature, moisture and carbon stores [4, 5]. JULES currently provides emission fluxes of the 4 largest groups of biogenic VOCs: isoprene, terpenes, methanol and acetone. The JULES isoprene scheme uses gross primary productivity (GPP), leaf internal carbon and the leaf temperature as a proxy for the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis [6]. In this study, we compare JULES biogenic VOC emission estimates of isoprene and terepenes with (a) flux measurements made at selected sites in the UK and Europe and (b) gridded estimates for the UK from the EMEP/EMEP4UK atmospheric chemical transport model [7, 8], using site-specific or EMEP4UK driving meteorological data, respectively. We compare the UK-scale emission estimates with literature estimates. We generally find good agreement in the comparisons but the estimates are sensitive to the choice of the base or reference emission potentials. References (1) Unger, 2014: Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8563, doi:10.1002/2014GL061616; (2) Laothawornkitkul et al., 2009: New Phytol., 183, 27, doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.02859.x; (3) Grote and Niinemets, 2008: Plant Biol., 10, 8, doi:10.1055/s-2007-964975; (4) Best et al., 2011: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011; (5) Clark et al., 2011: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011; (6) Pacifico et al., 2011: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4371, doi:10.5194/acp-11-4371-2011; [7] Simpson et al., 2012: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7825, doi: 10.5194/acp-12-7825-2012; [8] Vieno et al., 2016: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 265, doi: 10.5194/acp-16-265-2016.

Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

DOE PAGES

van Ruijven, Bas J.; Daenzer, Katie; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; ...

2016-02-14

This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO 2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections acrossmore » models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.« less

Modeling the impact of chlorine emissions from coal combustion and prescribed waste incineration on tropospheric ozone formation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yiming; Fan, Qi; Chen, Xiaoyang; Zhao, Jun; Ling, Zhenhao; Hong, Yingying; Li, Weibiao; Chen, Xunlai; Wang, Mingjie; Wei, Xiaolin

2018-02-01

Chlorine radicals can enhance atmospheric oxidation, which potentially increases tropospheric ozone concentration. However, few studies have been done to quantify the impact of chlorine emissions on ozone formation in China due to the lack of a chlorine emission inventory used in air quality models with sufficient resolution. In this study, the Anthropogenic Chlorine Emissions Inventory for China (ACEIC) was developed for the first time, including emissions of hydrogen chloride (HCl) and molecular chlorine (Cl2) from coal combustion and prescribed waste incineration (waste incineration plant). The HCl and Cl2 emissions from coal combustion in China in 2012 were estimated to be 232.9 and 9.4 Gg, respectively, while HCl emission from prescribed waste incineration was estimated to be 2.9 Gg. Spatially the highest emissions of HCl and Cl2 were found in the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Sichuan Basin. Air quality model simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system were performed for November 2011, and the modeling results derived with and without chlorine emissions were compared. The magnitude of the simulated HCl, Cl2 and ClNO2 agreed reasonably with the observation when anthropogenic chlorine emissions were included in the model. The inclusion of the ACEIC increased the concentration of fine particulate Cl-, leading to enhanced heterogeneous reactions between Cl- and N2O5, which resulted in the higher production of ClNO2. Photolysis of ClNO2 and Cl2 in the morning and the reaction of HCl with OH in the afternoon produced chlorine radicals which accelerated tropospheric oxidation. When anthropogenic chlorine emissions were included in the model, the monthly mean concentrations of fine particulate Cl-, daily maximum 1 h ClNO2, and Cl radicals were estimated to increase by up to about 2.0 µg m-3, 773 pptv, and 1.5 × 103 molecule cm-3 in China, respectively. Meanwhile, the monthly mean daily maximum 8 h O3 concentration was found to increase by up to 2.0 ppbv (4.1 %), while the monthly mean NOx concentration decreased by up to 0.5 ppbv (6.1 %). The anthropogenic chlorine emissions potentially increased the 1 h O3 concentration by up to 7.7 ppbv in China. This study highlights the need for the inclusion of anthropogenic chlorine emission in air quality modeling and demonstrated its importance in tropospheric ozone formation.

Control strategies for nitrous oxide emissions reduction on wastewater treatment plants operation.

PubMed

Santín, I; Barbu, M; Pedret, C; Vilanova, R

2017-11-15

The present paper focused on reducing greenhouse gases emissions in wastewater treatment plants operation by application of suitable control strategies. Specifically, the objective is to reduce nitrous oxide emissions during the nitrification process. Incomplete nitrification in the aerobic tanks can lead to an accumulation of nitrite that triggers the nitrous oxide emissions. In order to avoid the peaks of nitrous oxide emissions, this paper proposes a cascade control configuration by manipulating the dissolved oxygen set-points in the aerobic tanks. This control strategy is combined with ammonia cascade control already applied in the literature. This is performed with the objective to take also into account effluent pollutants and operational costs. In addition, other greenhouse gases emissions sources are also evaluated. Results have been obtained by simulation, using a modified version of Benchmark Simulation Model no. 2, which takes into account greenhouse gases emissions. This is called Benchmark Simulation Model no. 2 Gas. The results show that the proposed control strategies are able to reduce by 29.86% of nitrous oxide emissions compared to the default control strategy, while maintaining a satisfactory trade-off between water quality and costs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative study on performances of a continuously variable transmission used in two different powertrain architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibiceanu, A. R.; Ivan, F.; Nicolae, V.; Iorga, A.; Cioroianu, C.

2017-08-01

Given the importance of reducing carbon emissions from road transport, price and security of oil supply, hybrid electric vehicle can provide a viable alternative solution to conventional vehicles, equipped with thermal engines, which use fossil fuels. Based on the growing trends of new vehicles sales, which include hybrid and electric vehicles closely associated with their use in terms of harmful emissions, strict regulations are established. In this paper were created models of thermal and hybrid electric powertrains groups, using computer simulation program AVL Cruise, making a comparative study using petroleum fuels for continuously variable transmission. The results obtained highlights both fuel consumption as well as pollutant emissions.

CH4 emission estimates from an active landfill site inferred from a combined approach of CFD modelling and in situ FTIR measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonderfeld, Hannah; Boesch, Hartmut; Jeanjean, Antoine P. R.; Riddick, Stuart N.; Allen, Grant; Ars, Sebastien; Davies, Stewart; Harris, Neil; Humpage, Neil; Leigh, Roland; Pitt, Joseph

2017-04-01

Globally, the waste sector contributes to nearly a fifth of anthropogenic methane (CH4) emitted to the atmosphere and is the second largest source of methane in the UK. In recent years great improvements to reduce those emissions have been achieved by installation of methane recovery systems at landfill sites and subsequently methane emissions reported in national emission inventories have been reduced. Nevertheless, methane emissions of landfills remain uncertain and quantification of emission fluxes is essential to verify reported emission inventories and to monitor changes in emissions. We are presenting data from the deployment of an in situ FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer, Ecotech) for continuous and simultaneous sampling of CO2, CH4, N2O and CO with high time resolution of the order of minutes. During a two week field campaign at an operational landfill site in Eastern England in August 2014, measurements were taken within a radius of 320 m of the uncovered and active area of the landfill, which was still filled with new incoming waste. We have applied a computation fluid dynamics (CFD) model, constrained with local wind measurements and a detailed topographic map of the landfill site, to the in situ concentration data to calculate CH4 fluxes of the active site. A mean daytime flux of 0.83 mg m-2 s-1 (53.26 kg h-1) was calculated for the area of the active site. An additional source area was identified and incorporated into the CFD model, which resulted in higher total methane emissions of 75.97 kg h-1 for the combined emission areas. Our method of combining a CFD model to in situ data, in medium proximity of the source area, allows to distinguish between different emission areas and thereby provide more detailed information compared to bulk emission approaches.

Influence of Implementation of Composite Materials in Civil Aircraft Industry on reduction of Environmental Pollution and Greenhouse Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, A. J.; Hodzic, A.; Soutis, C.; Wilson, C. W.

2011-12-01

Computer-based Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) models were carried out to compare lightweight composites with the traditional aluminium over their useful lifetime. The analysis included raw materials, production, useful life in operation and disposal at the end of the material's useful life. The carbon fibre epoxy resin composite could in some cases reduce the weight of a component by up to 40 % compared to aluminium. As the fuel consumption of an aircraft is strongly influenced by its total weight, the emissions can be significantly reduced by increasing the proportion of composites used in the aircraft structure. Higher emissions, compared to aluminium, produced during composites production meet their 'break even' point after certain number of time units when used in aircraft structures, and continue to save emissions over their long-term operation. The study highlighted the environmental benefits of using lightweight structures in aircraft design, and also showed that utilisation of composites in products without energy saving may lead to increased emissions in the environment.

Scheduled Civil Aircraft Emission Inventories for 1999: Database Development and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.

2001-01-01

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the scheduled commercial aircraft fleet for each month of 1999. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 1999 are compared to global totals from 1992 and 2015 databases. 1999 fuel burn, departure and distance totals for selected airlines are compared to data reported on DOT Form 41 to evaluate the accuracy of the calculations. DOT Form T-100 data were used to determine typical payloads for freighter aircraft and this information was used to model freighter aircraft more accurately by using more realistic payloads. Differences in the calculation methodology used to create the 1999 fuel burn and emissions database from the methodology used in previous work are described and evaluated.

Constraints on oceanic methane emissions west of Svalbard from atmospheric in situ measurements and Lagrangian transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisso, Ignacio; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Platt, Stephen Matthew; Eckhardt, Sabine; Hermansen, Ove; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Mienert, Jurgen; Vadakkepuliyambatta, Sunil; Bauguitte, Stephane; Pitt, Joseph; Allen, Grant; Bower, Keith; O'Shea, Sebastian; Gallagher, Martin; Percival, Carl; Pyle, John; Cain, Michelle; Stohl, Andreas

2017-04-01

Methane stored in seabed reservoirs such as methane hydrates can reach the atmosphere in the form of bubbles or dissolved in water. Hydrates could destabilize with rising temperature further increasing greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate. To assess the impact of oceanic emissions from the area west of Svalbard, where methane hydrates are abundant, we used measurements collected with a research aircraft (FAAM) and a ship (Helmer Hansen) during the Summer 2014, and for Zeppelin Observatory for the full year. We present a model-supported analysis of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios measured by the different platforms. To address uncertainty about where CH4 emissions actually occur, we explored three scenarios: areas with known seeps, a hydrate stability model and an ocean depth criterion. We then used a budget analysis and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to compare measurements taken upwind and downwind of the potential CH4 emission areas. We found small differences between the CH4 mixing ratios measured upwind and downwind of the potential emission areas during the campaign. By taking into account measurement and sampling uncertainties and by determining the sensitivity of the measured mixing ratios to potential oceanic emissions, we provide upper limits for the CH4 fluxes. The CH4 flux during the campaign was small, with an upper limit of 2.5 nmol / m s in the stability model scenario. The Zeppelin Observatory data for 2014 suggests CH4 fluxes from the Svalbard continental platform below 0.2 Tg/yr . All estimates are in the lower range of values previously reported.

Experiment of Rain Retrieval over Land Using Surface Emissivity Map Derived from TRMM TMI and JRA25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furuzawa, Fumie; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Nakamura, Kenji

2010-05-01

We are developing a data-set of global land surface emissivity calculated from TRMM TMI brightness temperature (TB) and atmospheric profile data of Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) for the region identified as no-rain by TRMM PR, assuming zero cloud liquid water beyond 0-C level. For the evaluation, some characteristics of global monthly emissivity maps, for example, dependency of emissivity on each TMI frequency or each local time or seasonal/annual variation are checked. Moreover, these data are classified based on JRA25 land type or soilwetness and compared. Histogram of polarization difference of emissivity is similar to that of TB and mostly reflects the variability of land type or soil wetness, while histogram of vertical emissivity show a small difference. Next, by interpolating this instantaneous dataset with Gaussian function weighting, we derive an emissivity over neighboring rainy region and assess the interpolated emissivity by running radiative transfer model using PR rain profile and comparing with observed TB. Preliminary rain retrieval from the emissivities for some frequencies and TBs is evaluated based on PR rain profile and TMI rain rate. Moreover, another method is tested to estimate surface temperature from two emissivities, based on their statistical relation for each land type. We will show the results for vertical and horizontal emissivities of each frequency.

Detectability of Arctic methane sources at six sites performing continuous atmospheric measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thonat, Thibaud; Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe

Understanding the recent evolution of methane emissions in the Arctic is necessary to interpret the global methane cycle. Emissions are affected by significant uncertainties and are sensitive to climate change, leading to potential feedbacks. A polar version of the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model is used to simulate the evolution of tropospheric methane in the Arctic during 2012, including all known regional anthropogenic and natural sources, in particular freshwater emissions which are often overlooked in methane modelling. CHIMERE simulations are compared to atmospheric continuous observations at six measurement sites in the Arctic region. In winter, the Arctic is dominated by anthropogenic emissions;more » emissions from continental seepages and oceans, including from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, can contribute significantly in more limited areas. In summer, emissions from wetland and freshwater sources dominate across the whole region. The model is able to reproduce the seasonality and synoptic variations of methane measured at the different sites. We find that all methane sources significantly affect the measurements at all stations at least at the synoptic scale, except for biomass burning. In particular, freshwater systems play a decisive part in summer, representing on average between 11 and 26 % of the simulated Arctic methane signal at the sites. This indicates the relevance of continuous observations to gain a mechanistic understanding of Arctic methane sources. Sensitivity tests reveal that the choice of the land-surface model used to prescribe wetland emissions can be critical in correctly representing methane mixing ratios. The closest agreement with the observations is reached when using the two wetland models which have emissions peaking in August–September, while all others reach their maximum in June–July. Such phasing provides an interesting constraint on wetland models which still have large uncertainties at present. Also testing different freshwater emission inventories leads to large differences in modelled methane. Attempts to include methane sinks (OH oxidation and soil uptake) reduced the model bias relative to observed atmospheric methane. Here, the study illustrates how multiple sources, having different spatiotemporal dynamics and magnitudes, jointly influence the overall Arctic methane budget, and highlights ways towards further improved assessments.« less

Detectability of Arctic methane sources at six sites performing continuous atmospheric measurements

DOE PAGES

Thonat, Thibaud; Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; ...

2017-07-11

Understanding the recent evolution of methane emissions in the Arctic is necessary to interpret the global methane cycle. Emissions are affected by significant uncertainties and are sensitive to climate change, leading to potential feedbacks. A polar version of the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model is used to simulate the evolution of tropospheric methane in the Arctic during 2012, including all known regional anthropogenic and natural sources, in particular freshwater emissions which are often overlooked in methane modelling. CHIMERE simulations are compared to atmospheric continuous observations at six measurement sites in the Arctic region. In winter, the Arctic is dominated by anthropogenic emissions;more » emissions from continental seepages and oceans, including from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, can contribute significantly in more limited areas. In summer, emissions from wetland and freshwater sources dominate across the whole region. The model is able to reproduce the seasonality and synoptic variations of methane measured at the different sites. We find that all methane sources significantly affect the measurements at all stations at least at the synoptic scale, except for biomass burning. In particular, freshwater systems play a decisive part in summer, representing on average between 11 and 26 % of the simulated Arctic methane signal at the sites. This indicates the relevance of continuous observations to gain a mechanistic understanding of Arctic methane sources. Sensitivity tests reveal that the choice of the land-surface model used to prescribe wetland emissions can be critical in correctly representing methane mixing ratios. The closest agreement with the observations is reached when using the two wetland models which have emissions peaking in August–September, while all others reach their maximum in June–July. Such phasing provides an interesting constraint on wetland models which still have large uncertainties at present. Also testing different freshwater emission inventories leads to large differences in modelled methane. Attempts to include methane sinks (OH oxidation and soil uptake) reduced the model bias relative to observed atmospheric methane. Here, the study illustrates how multiple sources, having different spatiotemporal dynamics and magnitudes, jointly influence the overall Arctic methane budget, and highlights ways towards further improved assessments.« less

Detectability of Arctic methane sources at six sites performing continuous atmospheric measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonat, Thibaud; Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Pison, Isabelle; Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai; Crill, Patrick M.; Thornton, Brett F.; Bastviken, David; Dlugokencky, Ed J.; Zimov, Nikita; Laurila, Tuomas; Hatakka, Juha; Hermansen, Ove; Worthy, Doug E. J.

2017-07-01

Understanding the recent evolution of methane emissions in the Arctic is necessary to interpret the global methane cycle. Emissions are affected by significant uncertainties and are sensitive to climate change, leading to potential feedbacks. A polar version of the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model is used to simulate the evolution of tropospheric methane in the Arctic during 2012, including all known regional anthropogenic and natural sources, in particular freshwater emissions which are often overlooked in methane modelling. CHIMERE simulations are compared to atmospheric continuous observations at six measurement sites in the Arctic region. In winter, the Arctic is dominated by anthropogenic emissions; emissions from continental seepages and oceans, including from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, can contribute significantly in more limited areas. In summer, emissions from wetland and freshwater sources dominate across the whole region. The model is able to reproduce the seasonality and synoptic variations of methane measured at the different sites. We find that all methane sources significantly affect the measurements at all stations at least at the synoptic scale, except for biomass burning. In particular, freshwater systems play a decisive part in summer, representing on average between 11 and 26 % of the simulated Arctic methane signal at the sites. This indicates the relevance of continuous observations to gain a mechanistic understanding of Arctic methane sources. Sensitivity tests reveal that the choice of the land-surface model used to prescribe wetland emissions can be critical in correctly representing methane mixing ratios. The closest agreement with the observations is reached when using the two wetland models which have emissions peaking in August-September, while all others reach their maximum in June-July. Such phasing provides an interesting constraint on wetland models which still have large uncertainties at present. Also testing different freshwater emission inventories leads to large differences in modelled methane. Attempts to include methane sinks (OH oxidation and soil uptake) reduced the model bias relative to observed atmospheric methane. The study illustrates how multiple sources, having different spatiotemporal dynamics and magnitudes, jointly influence the overall Arctic methane budget, and highlights ways towards further improved assessments.

40 CFR 1048.510 - What transient duty cycles apply for laboratory testing?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... model year, measure emissions by testing the engine on a dynamometer with the duty cycle described in Appendix II to determine whether it meets the transient emission standards in § 1048.101(a). (b) Calculate cycle statistics and compare with the established criteria as specified in 40 CFR 1065.514 to confirm...

40 CFR 1048.510 - What transient duty cycles apply for laboratory testing?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... model year, measure emissions by testing the engine on a dynamometer with the duty cycle described in Appendix II to determine whether it meets the transient emission standards in § 1048.101(a). (b) Calculate cycle statistics and compare with the established criteria as specified in 40 CFR 1065.514 to confirm...

40 CFR 1048.510 - What transient duty cycles apply for laboratory testing?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... model year, measure emissions by testing the engine on a dynamometer with the duty cycle described in Appendix II to determine whether it meets the transient emission standards in § 1048.101(a). (b) Calculate cycle statistics and compare with the established criteria as specified in 40 CFR 1065.514 to confirm...

40 CFR 1048.510 - What transient duty cycles apply for laboratory testing?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... model year, measure emissions by testing the engine on a dynamometer with the duty cycle described in Appendix II to determine whether it meets the transient emission standards in § 1048.101(a). (b) Calculate cycle statistics and compare with the established criteria as specified in 40 CFR 1065.514 to confirm...

Microwave millisecond spike emission and its associated phenomena during the impulsive phase of large flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Chunsheng; Jiang, Shuying; Li, Hongwei; Fu, Qi-Jun

1986-01-01

A tentative model is proposed to account for some features of the microwave millisecond spike emission and its links with the physical processes of associated phenomena during the impulsive phase of large flares by comparing the optical, radio, and X-ray observations on May 16, 1981 to those on October 12, 1981.

A SECOND-BEST EVALUATION OF EIGHT POLICY INSTRUMENTS TO REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS. (R825313)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

This paper uses a numerical general equilibrium model to compare the costs of alternative policies for reducing carbon emissions in a second-best setting with a distortionary tax on labor. We examine a carbon tax, two energy taxes, and both narrow-based and br...

Emissions measurements from vegetation fires: A comparative evaluation of methods and results

Treesearch

D. E. Ward; L. F. Radke

1993-01-01

Fires in the open environment produce a diversity of combustion products. Special techniques are needed to characterize the emissions ranging from microcombustion-evolved gas analysis to airborne monitoring of the full-scale phenomenon. This chapter discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each, the use of data in models for full-scale fires, and provides a...

Using Landsat, MODIS, and a Biophysical Model to Evaluate LST in Urban Centers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Bounoua, Lahouari; Lachir, Asia; Zhang, Ping

2016-01-01

In this paper, we assessed and compared land surface temperature (LST) in urban centers using data from Landsat, MODIS, and the Simple Biosphere model (SiB2). We also evaluated the sensitivity of the models LST to different land cover types, fractions (percentages), and emissivities compared to reference points derived from Landsat thermal data. This was demonstrated in three climatologically- and morphologically-different cities of Atlanta, GA, New York, NY, and Washington, DC. Our results showed that in these cities SiB2 was sensitive to both the emissivity and the land cover type and fraction, but much more sensitive to the latter. The practical implications of these results are rather significant since they imply that the SiB2 model can be used to run different scenarios for evaluating urban heat island (UHI) mitigation strategies. This study also showed that using detailed emissivities per land cover type and fractions from Landsat-derived data caused a convergence of the model results towards the Landsat-derived LST for most of the studied cases. This study also showed that SiB2 LSTs are closer in magnitude to Landsat-derived LSTs than MODIS-derived LSTs. It is important, however, to emphasize that both Landsat and MODIS LSTs are not direct observations and, as such, do not represent a ground truth. More studies will be needed to compare these results to in situ LST data and provide further validation.

Plasma heating in solar flares and their soft and hard X-ray emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Falewicz, R., E-mail: falewicz@astro.uni.wroc.pl

In this paper, the energy budgets of two single-loop-like flares observed in X-ray are analyzed under the assumption that nonthermal electrons (NTEs) are the only source of plasma heating during all phases of both events. The flares were observed by RHESSI and GOES on 2002 February 20 and June 2, respectively. Using a one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic code for both flares, the energy deposited in the chromosphere was derived applying RHESSI observational data. The use of the Fokker-Planck formalism permits the calculation of distributions of the NTEs in flaring loops and thus spatial distributions of the X-ray nonthermal emissions and integralmore » fluxes for the selected energy ranges that were compared with the observed ones. Additionally, a comparative analysis of the spatial distributions of the signals in the RHESSI images was conducted for the footpoints and for all the flare loops in selected energy ranges with these quantities' fluxes obtained from the models. The best compatibility of the model and observations was obtained for the 2002 June 2 event in the 0.5-4 Å GOES range and total fluxes in the 6-12 keV, 12-25 keV, 20-25 keV, and 50-100 keV energy bands. Results of photometry of the individual flaring structures in a high energy range show that the best compliance occurred for the 2002 June 2 flare, where the synthesized emissions were at least 30% higher than the observed emissions. For the 2002 February 20 flare, synthesized emission is about four times lower than the observed one. However, in the low energy range the best conformity was obtained for the 2002 February 20 flare, where emission from the model is about 11% lower than the observed one. The larger inconsistency occurs for the 2002 June 2 solar flare, where synthesized emission is about 12 times greater or even more than the observed emission. Some part of these differences may be caused by inevitable flaws of the applied methodology, like by an assumption that the model of the flare is symmetric and there are no differences in the emissions originating from the feet of the flares loop and by relative simplicity of the applied numerical 1D code and procedures. No doubt a significant refinement of the applied numerical models and more sophisticated implementation of the various physical mechanisms involved are required to achieve a better agreement. Despite these problems, a collation of modeled results with observations shows that soft and hard X-ray emissions observed for analyzed single-loop-like events may be fully explained by electron-beam-driven evaporation only.« less

Plasma Heating in Solar Flares and their Soft and Hard X-Ray Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falewicz, R.

2014-07-01

In this paper, the energy budgets of two single-loop-like flares observed in X-ray are analyzed under the assumption that nonthermal electrons (NTEs) are the only source of plasma heating during all phases of both events. The flares were observed by RHESSI and GOES on 2002 February 20 and June 2, respectively. Using a one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic code for both flares, the energy deposited in the chromosphere was derived applying RHESSI observational data. The use of the Fokker-Planck formalism permits the calculation of distributions of the NTEs in flaring loops and thus spatial distributions of the X-ray nonthermal emissions and integral fluxes for the selected energy ranges that were compared with the observed ones. Additionally, a comparative analysis of the spatial distributions of the signals in the RHESSI images was conducted for the footpoints and for all the flare loops in selected energy ranges with these quantities' fluxes obtained from the models. The best compatibility of the model and observations was obtained for the 2002 June 2 event in the 0.5-4 Å GOES range and total fluxes in the 6-12 keV, 12-25 keV, 20-25 keV, and 50-100 keV energy bands. Results of photometry of the individual flaring structures in a high energy range show that the best compliance occurred for the 2002 June 2 flare, where the synthesized emissions were at least 30% higher than the observed emissions. For the 2002 February 20 flare, synthesized emission is about four times lower than the observed one. However, in the low energy range the best conformity was obtained for the 2002 February 20 flare, where emission from the model is about 11% lower than the observed one. The larger inconsistency occurs for the 2002 June 2 solar flare, where synthesized emission is about 12 times greater or even more than the observed emission. Some part of these differences may be caused by inevitable flaws of the applied methodology, like by an assumption that the model of the flare is symmetric and there are no differences in the emissions originating from the feet of the flares loop and by relative simplicity of the applied numerical 1D code and procedures. No doubt a significant refinement of the applied numerical models and more sophisticated implementation of the various physical mechanisms involved are required to achieve a better agreement. Despite these problems, a collation of modeled results with observations shows that soft and hard X-ray emissions observed for analyzed single-loop-like events may be fully explained by electron-beam-driven evaporation only.

An investigation of methods for injecting emissions from boreal wildfires using WRF-Chem during ARCTAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sessions, W. R.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Kahn, R. A.; Winker, D. M.

2010-11-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is considered a "next generation" mesoscale meteorology model. The inclusion of a chemistry module (WRF-Chem) allows transport simulations of chemical and aerosol species such as those observed during NASA's Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) in 2008. The ARCTAS summer deployment phase during June and July coincided with large boreal wildfires in Saskatchewan and Eastern Russia. One of the most important aspects of simulating wildfire plume transport is the height at which emissions are injected. WRF-Chem contains an integrated one-dimensional plume rise model to determine the appropriate injection layer. The plume rise model accounts for thermal buoyancy associated with fires and the local atmospheric stability. This study compares results from the plume model against those of two more traditional injection methods: Injecting within the planetary boundary layer, and in a layer 3-5 km above ground level. Fire locations are satellite derived from the GOES Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) and the MODIS thermal hotspot detection. Two methods for preprocessing these fire data are compared: The prep_chem_sources method included with WRF-Chem, and the Naval Research Laboratory's Fire Locating and Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE). Results from the simulations are compared with satellite-derived products from the AIRS, MISR and CALIOP sensors. Results show that the FLAMBE pre-processor produces more realistic injection heights than does prep_chem_sources. The plume rise model using FLAMBE provides the best agreement with satellite-observed injection heights. Conversely, when the planetary boundary layer or the 3-5 km AGL layer were filled with emissions, the resulting injection heights exhibit less agreement with observed plume heights. Results indicate that differences in injection heights produce different transport pathways. These differences are especially pronounced in areas of strong vertical wind shear and when the integration period is long.

Modelling emission turbulence-radiation interaction by using a hybrid flamelet/stochastic Eulerian field method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Consalvi, Jean-Louis

2017-01-01

The time-averaged Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE) introduces two unclosed terms, known as `absorption Turbulence Radiation Interaction (TRI)' and `emission TRI'. Emission TRI is related to the non-linear coupling between fluctuations of the absorption coefficient and fluctuations of the Planck function and can be described without introduction any approximation by using a transported PDF method. In this study, a hybrid flamelet/ Stochastic Eulerian Field Model is used to solve the transport equation of the one-point one-time PDF. In this formulation, the steady laminar flamelet model (SLF) is coupled to a joint Probability Density Function (PDF) of mixture fraction, enthalpy defect, scalar dissipation rate, and soot quantities and the PDF transport equation is solved by using a Stochastic Eulerian Field (SEF) method. Soot production is modeled by a semi-empirical model and the spectral dependence of the radiatively participating species, namely combustion products and soot, are computed by using a Narrow Band Correlated-k (NBCK) model. The model is applied to simulate an ethylene/methane turbulent jet flame burning in an oxygen-enriched environment. Model results are compared with the experiments and the effects of taken into account Emission TRI on flame structure, soot production and radiative loss are discussed.

Sensible Ozone on Mars based on 2-D Maps of O 2(a 1△ g) Emission for L s=102° Comparison of (0,0) and (1,1) Bands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novak, Robert E.; Mumma, Michael J.; Villanueva, Geronimo Luis

2016-10-01

We report 2-D maps of the O2(a1△g) emission rate (a tracer for high-altitude ozone) taken during early northern summer (Ls=102° on 30 January 2016) using CSHELL at NASA's IRTF. The entrance slit of the spectrometer was positioned N-S on Mars and stepped E-W at 0.5 arc-sec increments. Spectral extracts were taken at 0.6 arc-sec intervals along the slit. We also took data to compare the emission rates of the O2(a1△g) (1-1) band (1.28 μm) to the (0-0) band (1.27 μm) with the entrance slit centered at the sub-Earth point. A model consisting of the solar continuum with Fraunhofer lines, two-way transmission through Mars' atmosphere, and a one-way transmission through the Earth's atmosphere was used to isolate and analyze individual spectral emission lines from Mars. Boltzmann analysis of these lines yielded a rotational temperature (~165 K) that was used to determine the total emission rates for the a-X system from the measured line intensities. The line-of-sight emission rates were converted to vertical emission rates and O2(a1△g) column densities after geometric correction. The sensible O3 column implied by these data is compared with maps of total O3 in Mars standard atmosphere models.The 2-D map shows increased emission in the southern hemisphere when compared to previously reported results taken at earlier seasonal points (Ls=72° on 3 April 2010 and Ls=88° on 10 February 2014). Emission results of the O2(a1△g) (0-0) band (Local Time ~ 14:30) will be compared with MARCI results (LT ~ 15:00, Clancy et al., Icarus 266 (2016) 112-113). We searched for the (1-1) band in two adjacent wavelength ranges; (0-0) emissions were detected at these settings, but no (1-1) emissions were noticed above the noise level. An upper limit will be presented, and implications discussed.This work was partially funded by grants from NASA's Mars Fundamental Research Program (11-MFRP11-0066) and the NSF-RUI Program (AST-805540). The NASA Astrobiology Institute supported this work through funding awarded to the Goddard Center for Astrobiology under proposal 13-13NAI7-0032. We thank the administration and staff of the NASA-IRTF for awarding observing times and coordinating our observations.

Modeling multi-scale aerosol dynamics and micro-environmental air quality near a large highway intersection using the CTAG model.

PubMed

Wang, Yan Jason; Nguyen, Monica T; Steffens, Jonathan T; Tong, Zheming; Wang, Yungang; Hopke, Philip K; Zhang, K Max

2013-01-15

A new methodology, referred to as the multi-scale structure, integrates "tailpipe-to-road" (i.e., on-road domain) and "road-to-ambient" (i.e., near-road domain) simulations to elucidate the environmental impacts of particulate emissions from traffic sources. The multi-scale structure is implemented in the CTAG model to 1) generate process-based on-road emission rates of ultrafine particles (UFPs) by explicitly simulating the effects of exhaust properties, traffic conditions, and meteorological conditions and 2) to characterize the impacts of traffic-related emissions on micro-environmental air quality near a highway intersection in Rochester, NY. The performance of CTAG, evaluated against with the field measurements, shows adequate agreement in capturing the dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) and the number concentrations of UFPs in the near road micro-environment. As a proof-of-concept case study, we also apply CTAG to separate the relative impacts of the shutdown of a large coal-fired power plant (CFPP) and the adoption of the ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) on UFP concentrations in the intersection micro-environment. Although CTAG is still computationally expensive compared to the widely-used parameterized dispersion models, it has the potential to advance our capability to predict the impacts of UFP emissions and spatial/temporal variations of air pollutants in complex environments. Furthermore, for the on-road simulations, CTAG can serve as a process-based emission model; Combining the on-road and near-road simulations, CTAG becomes a "plume-in-grid" model for mobile emissions. The processed emission profiles can potentially improve regional air quality and climate predictions accordingly. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling CO2 emissions from water surface of a boreal hydroelectric reservoir.

PubMed

Wang, Weifeng; Roulet, Nigel T; Kim, Youngil; Strachan, Ian B; Del Giorgio, Paul; Prairie, Yves T; Tremblay, Alain

2018-01-15

To quantify CO 2 emissions from water surface of a reservoir that was shaped by flooding the boreal landscape, we developed a daily time-step reservoir biogeochemistry model. We calibrated the model using the measured concentrations of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (C) in a young boreal hydroelectric reservoir, Eastmain-1 (EM-1), in northern Quebec, Canada. We validated the model against observed CO 2 fluxes from an eddy covariance tower in the middle of EM-1. The model predicted the variability of CO 2 emissions reasonably well compared to the observations (root mean square error: 0.4-1.3gCm -2 day -1 , revised Willmott index: 0.16-0.55). In particular, we demonstrated that the annual reservoir surface effluxes were initially high, steeply declined in the first three years, and then steadily decreased to ~115gCm -2 yr -1 with increasing reservoir age over the estimated "engineering" reservoir lifetime (i.e., 100years). Sensitivity analyses revealed that increasing air temperature stimulated CO 2 emissions by enhancing CO 2 production in the water column and sediment, and extending the duration of open water period over which emissions occur. Increasing the amount of terrestrial organic C flooded can enhance benthic CO 2 fluxes and CO 2 emissions from the reservoir water surface, but the effects were not significant over the simulation period. The model is useful for the understanding of the mechanism of C dynamics in reservoirs and could be used to assist the hydro-power industry and others interested in the role of boreal hydroelectric reservoirs as sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a Feedstock-to-Product Chain Model for Densified Biomass Pellets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherrin, Daniel

The Q’Pellet is a spherical, torrefied biomass pellet currently under development. It aims to improve on the shortcomings of commercially available cylindrical white and torrefied pellets. A spreadsheet-based model was developed to allow for techno-economic analysis and simplified life cycle analysis of Q’Pellets, torrefied pellets and white pellets. A case study was developed to compare the production of white, torrefied and Q’Pellet production based on their internal rates of return and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions. The case study was based on a commercial scale plant built in Williams Lake BC with product delivery in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Q’Pellets had the highest modelled internal rate of return, at 12.7%, with white pellets at 11.1% and torrefied pellets at 8.0%. The simplified life cycle analysis showed that Q’Pellets had the lowest life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of the three products, 6.96 kgCO2eq/GJ, compared to 21.50 kgCO2eq/GJ for white pellets and 10.08 kgCO2eq/GJ for torrefied pellets. At these levels of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, white pellets are above the maximum life cycle emissions to be considered sustainable under EU regulations. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the model by modifying input variables, and showed that white pellets are more sensitive to uncontrollable market variables, especially pellet sale prices, raw biomass prices and transportation costs. Monte Carlo analysis was also performed, which showed that white pellet production is less predictable and more likely to lead to a negative internal rate of return compared to Q’Pellet production.

Atmospheric Ammonia Emissions and a Nitrogen Mass Balance for a Dairy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumburg, B. P.; Mount, G. H.; Filipy, J. M.; Lamb, B.; Yonge, D.; Wetherelt, S.

2003-12-01

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) emissions have many impacts on the environment and human health. Environmental NH3 impacts include terrestrial and aquatic eutrophication, soil acidification, and aerosol formation. Aerosols affect global radiative transfer and have been linked to human health effects. The global emissions of NH3 are estimated to be 45 Tg N yr-1 (Dentener and Crutzen, 1994) with most of the emissions coming from domestic animals. The largest per animal emission come from dairy cows at 33 kg N animal{-1} year{-1} versus 10 kg N animal{-1} {-1} for cattle. On a global scale the emissions uncertainty is about 25%, but local emissions are highly uncertain (Bouwman et al., 1997). Local emissions determination is required for proper treatment in air pollution models. The main sources of emission from dairies are the cow stalls where urea and manure react to form NH3, the storage lagoons where NH3 is the end product of microbial degradation and the disposal of the waste. There have been numerous studies of NH3 emissions in Europe but farming practices are quite different in Europe than in the U.S.. The impact of these differences on emissions is unknown. We have been studying the NH3 emissions from the Washington State University dairy for three years to develop a detailed emission model for use in a regional air pollution model. NH3 is measured using a short-path spectroscopic absorption near 200 nm with a sensitivity of a few ppbv and a time resolution of a few seconds. The open air short-path method is advantageous because it is self calibrating and avoids inlet wall adherence which is a major problem for most NH3 measurement techniques. A SF6 tracer technique has been used to measure fluxes from the three main emission sources: the cow stalls, anaerobic lagoon and the waste application to grass fields using a sprinkler system. Estimated yearly emissions from each source will be compared to a nitrogen mass balance model for the dairy.

Method for modeling driving cycles, fuel use, and emissions for over snow vehicles.

PubMed

Hu, Jiangchuan; Frey, H Christopher; Sandhu, Gurdas S; Graver, Brandon M; Bishop, Gary A; Schuchmann, Brent G; Ray, John D

2014-07-15

As input to a winter use plan, activity, fuel use, and tailpipe exhaust emissions of over snow vehicles (OSV), including five snow coaches and one snowmobile, were measured on a designated route in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Engine load was quantified in terms of vehicle specific power (VSP), which is a function of speed, acceleration, and road grade. Compared to highway vehicles, VSP for OSVs is more sensitive to rolling resistance and less sensitive to aerodynamic drag. Fuel use rates increased linearly (R2>0.96) with VSP. For gasoline-fueled OSVs, fuel-based emission rates of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) typically increased with increasing fuel use rate, with some cases of very high CO emissions. For the diesel OSVs, which had selective catalytic reduction and diesel particulate filters, fuel-based NOx and particulate matter (PM) emission rates were not sensitive to fuel flow rate, and the emission controls were effective. Inter vehicle variability in cycle average fuel use and emissions rates for CO and NOx was substantial. However, there was relatively little inter-cycle variation in cycle average fuel use and emission rates when comparing driving cycles. Recommendations are made regarding how real-world OSV activity, fuel use, and emissions data can be improved.

The broad-band X-ray spectral variability of Mrk 841

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, I. M.; Nandra, K.; Fabian, A. C.; Turner, T. J.; Done, C.; Day, C. S. R.

1993-01-01

A detailed spectral analysis of five X-ray observations of Mrk 841 with the EXOSAT, Ginga, and ROSAT satellites is reported. Variability is apparent in both the soft (0.1-1.0 keV) and medium (1-20 keV) energy bands. Above, 1 keV, the spectra are adequately modeled by a power law with a strong emission line of equivalent width 450 eV. The large equivalent width of the emission line indicates a strongly enhanced reflection component of the source compared with other Seyferts observed with Ginga. The implications of the results of the analysis for physical models of the emission regions in this and other X-ray bright Seyferts are briefly examined.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects onmore » carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.« less

Comparison of models used for national agricultural ammonia emission inventories in Europe: Litter-based manure systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidy, B.; Webb, J.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Menzi, H.; Luesink, H. H.; Hutchings, N. J.; Eurich-Menden, B.; Döhler, H.; Dämmgen, U.

Six N-flow models, used to calculate national ammonia (NH 3) emissions from agriculture in different European countries, were compared using standard data sets. Scenarios for litter-based systems were run separately for beef cattle and for broilers, with three different levels of model standardisation: (a) standardized inputs to all models (FF scenario); (b) standard N excretion, but national values for emission factors (EFs) (FN scenario); (c) national values for N excretion and EFs (NN scenario). Results of the FF scenario for beef cattle produced very similar estimates of total losses of total ammoniacal-N (TAN) (±6% of the mean total), but large differences in NH 3 emissions (±24% of the mean). These differences arose from the different approaches to TAN immobilization in litter, other N losses and mineralization in the models. As a result of those differences estimates of TAN available at spreading differed by a factor of almost 3. Results of the FF scenario for broilers produced a range of estimates of total changes in TAN (±9% of the mean total), and larger differences in the estimate of NH 3 emissions (±17% of the mean). The different approaches among the models to TAN immobilization, other N losses and mineralization, produced estimates of TAN available at spreading which differed by a factor of almost 1.7. The differences in estimates of NH 3 emissions decreased as estimates of immobilization and other N losses increased. Since immobilization and denitrification depend also on the C:N ratio in manure, there would be advantages to include C flows in mass-flow models. This would also provide an integrated model for the estimation of emissions of methane, non-methane VOCs and carbon dioxide. Estimation of these would also enable an estimate of mass loss, calculation of the N and TAN concentrations in litter-based manures and further validation of model outputs.

Modeling the night-time CO2 4.3 μm emissions in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panka, Peter; Kutepov, Alexander; Feofilov, Artem; Rezac, Ladislav; Janches, Diego

2016-04-01

We present a detailed non-LTE model of the night-time CO2 4.3 μm emissions in the MLT. The model accounts for various mechanisms of the non-thermal excitation of CO2 molecules and both for inter- and intra-molecular vibrational-vibrational (VV) and vibrational-translational (VT) energy exchanges. In this model, we pay a specific attention to the transfer of vibrational energy of OH(ν), produced in the chemical reaction H + O3, to the CO2(ν3) vibrational mode. With the help of this model, we simulated a set of non-LTE 4.3 μm MLT limb emissions for typical atmospheric scenarios and compared the vertical profiles of integrated radiances with the corresponding SABER/TIMED observations. The implications, which follow from this comparison, for selecting non-LTE model parameters (rate coefficients), as well as for the night-time CO2 density retrieval in the MLT are discussed.

An optical to IR sky brightness model for the LSST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoachim, Peter; Coughlin, Michael; Angeli, George Z.; Claver, Charles F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Cook, Kem; Daniel, Scott; Ivezić, Željko; Jones, R. Lynne; Petry, Catherine; Reuter, Michael; Stubbs, Christopher; Xin, Bo

2016-07-01

To optimize the observing strategy of a large survey such as the LSST, one needs an accurate model of the night sky emission spectrum across a range of atmospheric conditions and from the near-UV to the near-IR. We have used the ESO SkyCalc Sky Model Calculator1, 2 to construct a library of template spectra for the Chilean night sky. The ESO model includes emission from the upper and lower atmosphere, scattered starlight, scattered moonlight, and zodiacal light. We have then extended the ESO templates with an empirical fit to the twilight sky emission as measured by a Canon all-sky camera installed at the LSST site. With the ESO templates and our twilight model we can quickly interpolate to any arbitrary sky position and date and return the full sky spectrum or surface brightness magnitudes in the LSST filter system. Comparing our model to all-sky observations, we find typical residual RMS values of +/-0.2-0.3 magnitudes per square arcsecond.

Effects of Mg II and Ca II ionization on ab-initio solar chromosphere models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rammacher, W.; Cuntz, M.

1991-01-01

Acoustically heated solar chromosphere models are computed considering radiation damping by (non-LTE) emission from H(-) and by Mg II and Ca II emission lines. The radiative transfer equations for the Mg II k and Ca II K emission lines are solved using the core-saturation method with complete redistribution. The Mg II k and Ca II K cooling rates are compared with the VAL model C. Several substantial improvements over the work of Ulmschneider et al. (1987) are included. It is found that the rapid temperature rises caused by the ionization of Mg II are not formed in the middle chromosphere, but occur at larger atmospheric heights. These models represent the temperature structure of the 'real' solar chromosphere much better. This result is a major precondition for the study of ab-initio models for solar flux tubes based on MHD wave propagation and also for ab-initio models for the solar transition layer.

Quantifying methane emissions from coal and natural gas sources along the northwestern Appalachian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkley, Z.; Lauvaux, T.; Davis, K. J.; Fried, A.

2017-12-01

According to the EPA's 2012 gridded inventory (Maasakkers et al., 2016), more than 10% of all CH4 emissions in the U.S. are located along the western edge of the Appalachian with the majority of these emissions coming from natural gas infrastructure and coal mines. However, top-down studies of unconventional wells in southwestern Pennsylvania have found emission rates to be much higher than EPA estimates (Caulton et al., 2014, Ren et al., 2017). Furthermore, although 9 of the 10 largest sources of CH4 in the EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program are coal mines located in this region, no top down studies have been performed to assess the accuracy of these enormous point sources. This study uses aircraft data from the ACT-America flight campaign in conjunction with techniques previously used to solve for CH4 emissions from the northeastern Marcellus (Barkley et al., 2017) to quantify the total CH4 flux from the western Pennsylvania/West Virginia region and constrain emissions from natural gas and coal with an upper limit for each source. We use the WRF-Chem mesoscale model at 3 km resolution to simulate CH4 enhancements from a customized emissions inventory and compare the modelled enhancements to observations from 7 flights that were downwind of coal and gas sources. Coal and natural gas emissions are adjusted in the model to minimize a cost function that accounts for the difference between the modelled and observed CH4 values, and a range of likely combinations for natural gas and coal emission rates are obtained for each flight. We then overlap this range of likely emission rates across all flights to further limit the range of possible emission rates. Influence functions created using a lagrangian particle dispersion model for segments of each flight provide information on what area emissions are being optimized for. Preliminary results find that CH4 emissions from gas and coal along the northwestern Appalachian are lower than EPA estimates by 20-50%. In particular, upper limits on CH4 emissions from unconventional natural gas are less than 1% of total production, significantly lower than previous top-down estimates in the region. Future work will use ethane data to better distinguish between coal and natural gas emissions, and expand these analyses to other study regions explored in the ACT-America aircraft campaign.

Quantification of point sources of carbon monoxide using satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Iris; Houweling, Sander; Aben, Ilse; Roeckmann, Thomas; Krol, Maarten

2017-04-01

The growth of mega-cities leads to air quality problems directly affecting the citizens. With satellite measurements becoming of higher quality and quantity, satellite instruments can more accurately retrieve the enhanced air pollutant concentrations over large cities. The aim of this research is to quantify carbon monoxide emissions from megacities and their trends using satellite retrievals, combined with an atmospheric chemistry and transport model. Earlier emission estimations of cities have been done using MOPITT satellite data only. To improve the reliability of the emission estimation, we simulate MOPITT retrievals using the Weather Research and Forecast model with chemistry core (WRF-Chem). The difference between model and retrieval is used to optimize CO emissions in WRF-Chem, focusing on the city of Madrid, Spain. A reasonable agreement is obtained between the yearly averaged model output and satellite measurements (R2=0.75) for Madrid. After optimization, the emission of Madrid is reduced by 48% for 2002 and by 17% for 2006 compared with EdgarV4.2. The MOPITT derived emission adjustments lead to a better agreement with a European emission inventory TNO-MAC-III for both years. This suggested that the downward trend in CO emissions over Madrid is overestimated in EdgarV4.2 and more realistically represented in TNO-MAC-III. However, uncertainties remain large using our satellite-based emission estimation method, in the order of 20% for 2002 and 50% for 2006. Therefore, different options to increase the degrees of freedom in the optimization are investigated, to account for the noise in the MOPITT data. We also show comparisons with IASI data, which have a higher temporal resolution. The method is developed for application to Sentinel 5P TROPOMI, to be launched in June 2017.

Implications of near-term coal power plant retirement for SO2 and NOX and life cycle GHG emissions.

PubMed

Venkatesh, Aranya; Jaramillo, Paulina; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2012-09-18

Regulations monitoring SO(2), NO(X), mercury, and other metal emissions in the U.S. will likely result in coal plant retirement in the near-term. Life cycle assessment studies have previously estimated the environmental benefits of displacing coal with natural gas for electricity generation, by comparing systems that consist of individual natural gas and coal power plants. However, such system comparisons may not be appropriate to analyze impacts of coal plant retirement in existing power fleets. To meet this limitation, simplified economic dispatch models for PJM, MISO, and ERCOT regions are developed in this study to examine changes in regional power plant dispatch that occur when coal power plants are retired. These models estimate the order in which existing power plants are dispatched to meet electricity demand based on short-run marginal costs, with cheaper plants being dispatched first. Five scenarios of coal plant retirement are considered: retiring top CO(2) emitters, top NO(X) emitters, top SO(2) emitters, small and inefficient plants, and old and inefficient plants. Changes in fuel use, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (including uncertainty), and SO(2) and NO(X) emissions are estimated. Life cycle GHG emissions were found to decrease by less than 4% in almost all scenarios modeled. In addition, changes in marginal damage costs due to SO(2), and NO(X) emissions are estimated using the county level marginal damage costs reported in the Air Pollution Emissions Experiments and Policy (APEEP) model, which are a proxy for measuring regional impacts of SO(2) and NO(X) emissions. Results suggest that location specific parameters should be considered within environmental policy frameworks targeting coal plant retirement, to account for regional variability in the benefits of reducing the impact of SO(2) and NO(X) emissions.

Research and Development of a DNDC Online Model for Farmland Carbon Sequestration and GHG Emissions Mitigation in China.

PubMed

Jiang, Zaidi; Yin, Shan; Zhang, Xianxian; Li, Changsheng; Shen, Guangrong; Zhou, Pei; Liu, Chunjiang

2017-12-01

Appropriate agricultural practices for carbon sequestration and emission mitigation have a significant influence on global climate change. However, various agricultural practices on farmland carbon sequestration usually have a major impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is very important to accurately quantify the effect of agricultural practices. This study developed a platform-the Denitrification Decomposition (DNDC) online model-for simulating and evaluating the agricultural carbon sequestration and emission mitigation based on the scientific process of the DNDC model, which is widely used in the simulation of soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics. After testing the adaptability of the platform on two sampling fields, it turned out that the simulated values matched the measured values well for crop yields and GHG emissions. We used the platform to estimate the effect of three carbon sequestration practices in a sampling field: nitrogen fertilization reduction, straw residue and midseason drainage. The results indicated the following: (1) moderate decrement of the nitrogen fertilization in the sampling field was able to decrease the N₂O emission while maintaining the paddy rice yield; (2) ground straw residue had almost no influence on paddy rice yield, but the CH₄ emission and the surface SOC concentration increased along with the quantity of the straw residue; (3) compared to continuous flooding, midseason drainage would not decrease the paddy rice yield and could lead to a drop in CH₄ emission. Thus, this study established the DNDC online model, which is able to serve as a reference and support for the study and evaluation of the effects of agricultural practices on agricultural carbon sequestration and GHG emissions mitigation in China.

The Supercritical Pile Model: Prompt Emission Across the Electromagnetic Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kazanas, Demos; Mastichiadis, A.

2008-01-01

The "Supercritical Pile" GRB model is an economical model that provides the dissipation necessary to convert explosively the energy stored in relativistic protons in the blast wave of a GRB into radiation; at the same time it produces spectra whose luminosity peaks at 1 MeV in the lab frame, the result of the kinematics of the proton-photon - pair production reaction that effects the conversion of proton energy to radiation. We outline the fundamental notions behind the "Supercritical Pile" model and discuss the resulting spectra of the prompt emission from optical to gamma-ray energies of order Gamma^2 m_ec^2, (Gamma is the Lorentz factor of the blast wave) present even in the absence of an accelerated particle distribution and compare our results to bursts that cover this entire energy range. Particular emphasis is given on the emission at the GLAST energy range both in the prompt and the afterglow stages of the burst.

Coalescing colony model: Mean-field, scaling, and geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carra, Giulia; Mallick, Kirone; Barthelemy, Marc

2017-12-01

We analyze the coalescing model where a `primary' colony grows and randomly emits secondary colonies that spread and eventually coalesce with it. This model describes population proliferation in theoretical ecology, tumor growth, and is also of great interest for modeling urban sprawl. Assuming the primary colony to be always circular of radius r (t ) and the emission rate proportional to r (t) θ , where θ >0 , we derive the mean-field equations governing the dynamics of the primary colony, calculate the scaling exponents versus θ , and compare our results with numerical simulations. We then critically test the validity of the circular approximation for the colony shape and show that it is sound for a constant emission rate (θ =0 ). However, when the emission rate is proportional to the perimeter, the circular approximation breaks down and the roughness of the primary colony cannot be discarded, thus modifying the scaling exponents.

Measurements and models of CO2 and CH4 Flux in the Baltimore/Washington area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickerson, R. R.; Ren, X.; Salawitch, R. J.; Ahn, D.; Karion, A.; Shepson, P. B.; Whetstone, J. R.; Martin, C.

2017-12-01

Direct measurements of concentrations of pollutants such as CO2 and CH4 can be combined with wind fields to determine the flux of these species and to evaluate emissions inventories or models. The mass balance approach, assumng linear flow into and out of a volume set over a city, works best where wind fields are simplest. Over typical American east coast cities, upwind sources and complex circulation (e.g., the sea breeze) complicate such analyses. We will present findings from a coupled measurement and modeling project involving a network of surface-based tower measurements, aircraft observations, and remote sensing that constrain model calculations. Summer and winter scenarios are contrasted, and results help evaluate the emissions of short-lived pollutants. Determinations are compared to several emissions inventories and are being used to help States evaluate evaluate plans for pollution control.

Coronal loop hydrodynamics. The solar flare observed on November 12, 1980 revisited: The UV line emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betta, R. M.; Peres, G.; Reale, F.; Serio, S.

2001-12-01

We revisit a well-studied solar flare whose X-ray emission originating from a simple loop structure was observed by most of the instruments on board SMM on November 12, 1980. The X-ray emission of this flare, as observed with the XRP, was successfully modeled previously. Here we include a detailed modeling of the transition region and we compare the hydrodynamic results with the UVSP observations in two EUV lines, measured in areas smaller than the XRP rasters, covering only some portions of the flaring loop (the top and the foot-points). The single loop hydrodynamic model, which fits well the evolution of coronal lines (those observed with the XRP and the Fe XXI 1354.1 Å line observed with the UVSP) fails to model the flux level and evolution of the O V 1371.3 Åline.

An evaluation of the uncertainties in biomass burning emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, A.; Garcia Menendez, F.; Hu, Y.; Odman, M.

2012-12-01

The contribution of biomass burning emissions to the atmospheric loads of gases and aerosols can lead to major air quality problems and have significant climate impacts. Whether from wildfires, natural or human-induced, or controlled burns, biomass burning emissions are an important source of air pollutants regionally in certain parts of the world as well as globally. There are two common ways of estimating biomass burning emissions: by using either ground-based information or satellite observations. When there is sufficient local information about the burn area, the types of fuels and their consumption amounts, and the progression of the fire, ground-based estimation is preferred. For controlled burns a.k.a. prescribed burns and wildfires in places where land management is practiced to a certain extent there is typically sufficient ground-based information for emissions estimation. However, for remote regions where no ground-based information is available on the size, intensity, or the spread of the fire, estimates based on satellite observations are preferred. For example, burn location, size and timing information can be obtained from satellite retrievals of thermal anomalies and fuel loading information can be obtained from satellite products of vegetation cover. In both cases, reasonable emission estimates for a variety of pollutants can be obtained by using emission factors (mass of pollutant released per unit mass of fuel consumed) derived from field or laboratory studies. Here, emissions from a controlled burn and a wildfire are estimated using both ground-based information and satellite observations. The controlled burn was conducted on 17 November 2009 near Santa Barbara, California over 80 ha of land covered with chaparral. An aircraft tracked the smoke plume and measured CO2, light scattering, as well as meteorological parameters during the burn (Akagi et al., 2011). The wildfire is from the summer of 2008 when tens of thousands hectares of wild land burned in Northern California causing unprecedented damage. NASA Aircraft commissioned for the ARCTAS campaign at the time flew over the fires and collected data detailing composition of gases and aerosols in the fire plumes (Singh et al., 2012). We model the fires using a newly developed system consisting of a plume rise and dispersion model specifically designed for wild-land fire plumes (Daysmoke; Achtemeier et al., 2011) coupled with a regional-scale chemistry-transport model (CMAQ). Wind fields generated by a weather prediction model (WRF) are adjusted locally to match the aircraft measurements of wind speed and direction. The fires are simulated using both ground-based and satellite-based estimates of emissions. Predicted concentrations of gases and aerosols are compared to corresponding aircraft measurements. Satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth are also used in evaluating model predictions. The new modeling system along with the wind adjustments reduces several of the uncertainties inherent to regional-scale modeling of plume transport. This allows for a more reliable analysis of the uncertainties related to emissions. Uncertainties in the magnitudes and timings of emissions, and in plume injection heights with respect to boundary layer heights are investigated. Uncertainties associated with ground-based and satellite-based emissions estimation methods are compared to each other.

Evaluation of modeling NO2 concentrations driven by satellite-derived and bottom-up emission inventories using in situ measurements over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fei; van der A, Ronald J.; Eskes, Henk; Ding, Jieying; Mijling, Bas

2018-03-01

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slope = 0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slope = 1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40 % higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0 % on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15 % in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

Evaluation of Modeling NO2 Concentrations Driven by Satellite-Derived and Bottom-Up Emission Inventories Using In-Situ Measurements Over China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Fei; van der A, Ronald J.; Eskes, Henk; Ding, Jieying; Mijling, Bas

2018-01-01

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slopeD0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slopeD1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40% higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0% on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15% in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Effects of Grid-Scale Electricity Storage in a Decarbonizing Power System

DOE PAGES

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2018-01-03

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter 'storage') could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO 2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO 2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO 2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. Wemore » conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO 2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO 2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO 2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO 2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions.« less

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Effects of Grid-Scale Electricity Storage in a Decarbonizing Power System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter 'storage') could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO 2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO 2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO 2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. Wemore » conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO 2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO 2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO 2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO 2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions.« less

Carbon dioxide emissions effects of grid-scale electricity storage in a decarbonizing power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2018-01-01

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter ‘storage’) could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. We conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO2 emissions.

A radiative transfer model for microwave emissions from bare agricultural soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, W. J.; Paris, J. F.

1975-01-01

A radiative transfer model for microwave emissions from bare, stratified agricultural soils was developed to assist in the analysis of data gathered in the joint soil moisture experiment. The predictions of the model were compared with preliminary X band (2.8 cm) microwave and ground based observations. Measured brightness temperatures at vertical and horizontal polarizations can be used to estimate the moisture content of the top centimeter of soil with + or - 1 percent accuracy. It is also shown that the Stokes parameters can be used to distinguish between moisture and surface roughness effects.

Effects of engine emissions from high-speed civil transport aircraft: A two-dimensional modeling study, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Sze, Nein Dak; Shia, Run-Lie; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Heisey, Curtis

1991-01-01

The AER two-dimensional chemistry-transport model is used to study the effect of supersonic and subsonic aircraft operation in the 2010 atmosphere on stratospheric ozone (O3). The results show that: (1) the calculated O3 response is smaller in the 2010 atmosphere compared to previous calculations performed in the 1980 atmosphere; (2) with the emissions provided, the calculated decrease in O3 column is less than 1 percent; and (3) the effect of model grid resolution on O3 response is small provided that the physics is not modified.

Black carbon in the Arctic: the underestimated role of gas flaring and residential combustion emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.; Klimont, Z.; Eckhardt, S.; Kupiainen, K.; Shevchenko, V. P.; Kopeikin, V. M.; Novigatsky, A. N.

2013-09-01

Arctic haze is a seasonal phenomenon with high concentrations of accumulation-mode aerosols occurring in the Arctic in winter and early spring. Chemistry transport models and climate chemistry models struggle to reproduce this phenomenon, and this has recently prompted changes in aerosol removal schemes to remedy the modeling problems. In this paper, we show that shortcomings in current emission data sets are at least as important. We perform a 3 yr model simulation of black carbon (BC) with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The model is driven with a new emission data set ("ECLIPSE emissions") which includes emissions from gas flaring. While gas flaring is estimated to contribute less than 3% of global BC emissions in this data set, flaring dominates the estimated BC emissions in the Arctic (north of 66° N). Putting these emissions into our model, we find that flaring contributes 42% to the annual mean BC surface concentrations in the Arctic. In March, flaring even accounts for 52% of all Arctic BC near the surface. Most of the flaring BC remains close to the surface in the Arctic, so that the flaring contribution to BC in the middle and upper troposphere is small. Another important factor determining simulated BC concentrations is the seasonal variation of BC emissions from residential combustion (often also called domestic combustion, which is used synonymously in this paper). We have calculated daily residential combustion emissions using the heating degree day (HDD) concept based on ambient air temperature and compare results from model simulations using emissions with daily, monthly and annual time resolution. In January, the Arctic-mean surface concentrations of BC due to residential combustion emissions are 150% higher when using daily emissions than when using annually constant emissions. While there are concentration reductions in summer, they are smaller than the winter increases, leading to a systematic increase of annual mean Arctic BC surface concentrations due to residential combustion by 68% when using daily emissions. A large part (93%) of this systematic increase can be captured also when using monthly emissions; the increase is compensated by a decreased BC burden at lower latitudes. In a comparison with BC measurements at six Arctic stations, we find that using daily-varying residential combustion emissions and introducing gas flaring emissions leads to large improvements of the simulated Arctic BC, both in terms of mean concentration levels and simulated seasonality. Case studies based on BC and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Zeppelin observatory appear to confirm flaring as an important BC source that can produce pollution plumes in the Arctic with a high BC / CO enhancement ratio, as expected for this source type. BC measurements taken during a research ship cruise in the White, Barents and Kara seas north of the region with strong flaring emissions reveal very high concentrations of the order of 200-400 ng m-3. The model underestimates these concentrations substantially, which indicates that the flaring emissions (and probably also other emissions in northern Siberia) are rather under- than overestimated in our emission data set. Our results suggest that it may not be "vertical transport that is too strong or scavenging rates that are too low" and "opposite biases in these processes" in the Arctic and elsewhere in current aerosol models, as suggested in a recent review article (Bond et al., Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment, J. Geophys. Res., 2013), but missing emission sources and lacking time resolution of the emission data that are causing opposite model biases in simulated BC concentrations in the Arctic and in the mid-latitudes.