Model assessment of atmospheric pollution control schemes for critical emission regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Shixian; An, Xingqin; Liu, Zhao; Sun, Zhaobin; Hou, Qing

2016-01-01

In recent years, the atmospheric environment in portions of China has become significantly degraded and the need for emission controls has become urgent. Because more international events are being planned, it is important to implement air quality assurance targeted at significant events held over specific periods of time. This study sets Yanqihu (YQH), Beijing, the location of the 2014 Beijing APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit, as the target region. By using the atmospheric inversion model FLEXPART, we determined the sensitive source zones that had the greatest impact on the air quality of the YQH region in November 2012. We then used the air-quality model Models-3/CMAQ and a high-resolution emissions inventory of the Beijing-Tianjian-Hebei region to establish emission reduction tests for the entire source area and for specific sensitive source zones. This was achieved by initiating emission reduction schemes at different ratios and different times. The results showed that initiating a moderate reduction of emissions days prior to a potential event is more beneficial to the air quality of Beijing than initiating a high-strength reduction campaign on the day of the event. The sensitive source zone of Beijing (BJ-Sens) accounts for 54.2% of the total source area of Beijing (BJ), but its reduction effect reaches 89%-100% of the total area, with a reduction efficiency 1.6-1.9 times greater than that of the entire area. The sensitive source zone of Huabei (HuaB-Sens.) only represents 17.6% of the total area of Huabei (HuaB), but its emission reduction effect reaches 59%-97% of the entire area, with a reduction efficiency 4.2-5.5 times greater than that of the total area. The earlier that emission reduction measures are implemented, the greater the effect they have on preventing the transmission of pollutants. In addition, expanding the controlling areas to sensitive provinces and cities around Beijing (HuaB-sens) can significantly accelerate the reduction effects compared to controlling measures only in the Beijing sensitive source zone (BJ-Sens). Therefore, when enacting emission reduction schemes, cooperating with surrounding provinces and cities, as well as narrowing the reduction scope to specific sensitive source zones prior to unfavorable meteorological conditions, can help reduce emissions control costs and improve the efficiency and maneuverability of emission reduction schemes.

Estimation of marginal abatement costs of CO2 in Chinese provinces under 2020 carbon emission rights allocation: 2005-2020.

PubMed

Duan, Fumei; Wang, Yong; Wang, Ying; Zhao, Han

2018-06-16

The calculation of marginal abatement costs of CO 2 plays a vital role in meeting China's 2020 emission reduction targets by providing reference for determining carbon tax and carbon trading pricing. However, most existing researches only used one method to discuss regional and industrial marginal abatement costs, and almost no studies predicted future marginal abatement costs from the perspective of CO 2 emission efficiency. To make up for the gaps, this paper first estimates marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in three major industries of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2015 based on three assumptions. Second, based on the principle of fairness and efficiency, China's 2020 emission reduction targets are decomposed by province. Based on the ZSG-C-DDF model, the marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in all provinces in China in 2020 are estimated and compared with the marginal abatement costs of 2005 to 2015. The results show that (1) from 2005 to 2015, marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in all provinces show a fluctuating upward trend; (2) compared with the marginal abatement costs of primary industry or tertiary industry, most provinces have lower marginal abatement costs for secondary industry; and (3) the average marginal abatement costs of CO 2 for China in 2020 are 2766.882 Yuan/tonne for the 40% carbon intensity reduction target and 3334.836 Yuan/tonne for the 45% target, showing that the higher the emission reduction target, the higher the marginal abatement costs of CO 2 . (4) Overall, the average marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in China by 2020 are higher than those in 2005-2015. The empirical analysis in this paper can provide multiple references for environmental policy makers.

The Benefits of Internalizing Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Externalities in the US Energy System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Kristen E.

The emission of pollutants from energy use has effects on both local air quality and the global climate, but the price of energy does not reflect these externalities. This study aims to analyze the effect that internalizing these externalities in the cost of energy would have on the US energy system, emissions, and human health. In this study, we model different policy scenarios in which fees are added to emissions related to generation and use of energy. The fees are based on values of damages estimated in the literature and are applied to upstream and combustion emissions related to electricity generation, industrial energy use, transportation energy use, residential energy use, and commercial energy use. The energy sources and emissions are modeled through 2055 in five-year time steps. The emissions in 2045 are incorporated into a continental-scale atmospheric chemistry and transport model, CMAQ, to determine the change in air quality due to different emissions reduction scenarios. A benefit analysis tool, BenMAP, is used with the air quality results to determine the monetary benefit of emissions reductions related to the improved air quality. We apply fees to emissions associated with health impacts, climate change, and a combination of both. We find that the fees we consider lead to reductions in targeted emissions as well as co-reducing non-targeted emissions. For fees on the electric sector alone, health impacting pollutant (HIP) emissions reductions are achieved mainly through control devices while Greenhouse Gas (GHG) fees are addressed through changes in generation technologies. When sector specific fees are added, reductions come mainly from the industrial and electricity generation sectors, and are achieved through a mix of energy efficiency, increased use of renewables, and control devices. Air quality is improved in almost all areas of the country with fees, including when only GHG fees are applied. Air quality tends to improve more in regions with larger emissions reductions, especially for PM2.5.

Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, William J.; Webber, Christopher P.; Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason; Sitch, Stephen; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Comyn-Platt, Edward; Harper, Anna B.; Hayman, Garry; Powell, Tom

2018-04-01

To understand the importance of methane on the levels of carbon emission reductions required to achieve temperature goals, a processed-based approach is necessary rather than reliance on the transient climate response to emissions. We show that plausible levels of methane (CH4) mitigation can make a substantial difference to the feasibility of achieving the Paris climate targets through increasing the allowable carbon emissions. This benefit is enhanced by the indirect effects of CH4 on ozone (O3). Here the differing effects of CH4 and CO2 on land carbon storage, including the effects of surface O3, lead to an additional increase in the allowable carbon emissions with CH4 mitigation. We find a simple robust relationship between the change in the 2100 CH4 concentration and the extra allowable cumulative carbon emissions between now and 2100 (0.27 ± 0.05 GtC per ppb CH4). This relationship is independent of modelled climate sensitivity and precise temperature target, although later mitigation of CH4 reduces its value and thus methane reduction effectiveness. Up to 12% of this increase in allowable emissions is due to the effect of surface ozone. We conclude early mitigation of CH4 emissions would significantly increase the feasibility of stabilising global warming below 1.5 °C, alongside having co-benefits for human and ecosystem health.

How to reach haze control targets by air pollutants emission reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China?

PubMed

Xu, Feng; Xiang, Nan; Higano, Yoshiro

2017-01-01

Currently, Haze is one of the greatest environmental problems with serious impacts on human health in China, especially in capital region (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region). To alleviate this problem, the Chinese government introduced a National Air Pollution Control Action Plan (NAPCAP) with air pollutants reduction targets by 2017. However, there is doubt whether these targets can be achieved once the plan is implemented. In this work, the effectiveness of NAPCAP is analyzed by developing models of the statistical relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and air pollutant emissions (SO2, NOx, smoke and dust), while taking into account wind and neighboring transfer impacts. The model can also identify ways of calculating the intended emission levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The results indicate that haze concentration control targets will not be attained by following the NAPCAP, and that the amount of progress needed to meet the targets is unrealistic. A more appropriate approach to reducing air emissions is proposed, which addresses joint regional efforts.

Impact of cutting meat intake on hidden greenhouse gas emissions in an import-reliant city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yau, Y. Y.; Thibodeau, B.; Not, C.

2018-06-01

Greenhouse gas emissions embodied in trade is a growing concern for the international community. Multiple studies have highlighted drawbacks in the territorial and production-based accounting of greenhouse gas emissions because it neglects emissions from the consumption of goods in trade. This creates weak carbon leakage and complicates international agreements on emissions regulations. Therefore, we estimated consumption-based emissions using input-output analysis and life cycle assessment to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions hidden in meat and dairy products in Hong Kong, a city predominately reliant on imports. We found that emissions solely from meat and dairy consumption were higher than the city’s total greenhouse gas emissions using conventional production-based calculation. This implies that government reports underestimate more than half of the emissions, as 62% of emissions are embodied in international trade. The discrepancy emphasizes the need of transitioning climate targets and policy to consumption-based accounting. Furthermore, we have shown that dietary change from a meat-heavy diet to a diet in accordance with governmental nutrition guidelines could achieve a 67% reduction in livestock-related emissions, allowing Hong Kong to achieve the Paris Agreement targets for 2030. Consequently, we concluded that consumption-based accounting for greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to target the areas where emissions reduction is realistically achievable, especially for import-reliant cities like Hong Kong.

Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäfer, Andreas W.; Evans, Antony D.; Reynolds, Tom G.; Dray, Lynnette

2016-04-01

In response to strong growth in air transportation CO2 emissions, governments and industry began to explore and implement mitigation measures and targets in the early 2000s. However, in the absence of rigorous analyses assessing the costs for mitigating CO2 emissions, these policies could be economically wasteful. Here we identify the cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reductions from narrow-body aircraft, the workhorse of passenger air transportation. We find that in the US, a combination of fuel burn reduction strategies could reduce the 2012 level of life cycle CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre by around 2% per year to mid-century. These intensity reductions would occur at zero marginal costs for oil prices between US$50-100 per barrel. Even larger reductions are possible, but could impose extra costs and require the adoption of biomass-based synthetic fuels. The extent to which these intensity reductions will translate into absolute emissions reductions will depend on fleet growth.

The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain.

PubMed

Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B; Allwood, Julian M

2017-06-13

Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Authors.

Deep Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the California Transportation Sector: Dynamics in Vehicle Fleet and Energy Supply Transitions to Achieve 80% Reduction in Emissions from 1990 Levels by 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leighty, Wayne Waterman

California's "80in50" target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050 is based on climate science rather than technical feasibility of mitigation. As such, it raises four fundamental questions: is this magnitude of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions possible, what energy system transitions over the next 40 years are necessary, can intermediate policy goals be met on the pathway toward 2050, and does the path of transition matter for the objective of climate change mitigation? Scenarios for meeting the 80in50 goal in the transportation sector are modelled. Specifically, earlier work defining low carbon transport scenarios for the year 2050 is refined by incorporating new information about biofuel supply. Then transition paths for meeting 80in50 scenarios are modelled for the light-duty vehicle sub-sector, with important implications for the timing of action, rate of change, and cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. One aspect of these transitions -- development in the California wind industry to supply low-carbon electricity for plug-in electric vehicles -- is examined in detail. In general, the range of feasible scenarios for meeting the 80in50 target is narrow enough that several common themes are apparent: electrification of light-duty vehicles must occur; continued improvements in vehicle efficiency must be applied to improving fuel economy; and energy carriers must de-carbonize to less than half of the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel. Reaching the 80in50 goal will require broad success in travel demand reduction, fuel economy improvements and low-carbon fuel supply, since there is little opportunity to increase emission reductions in one area if we experience failure in another. Although six scenarios for meeting the 80in50 target are defined, only one also meets the intermediate target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020. Furthermore, the transition path taken to reach any one of these scenarios can differ in cumulative emissions by more than 25 percent. Since cumulative emissions are the salient factor for climate change mitigation and the likelihood of success is an important consideration, initiating action immediately to begin the transitions indicated for achieving the 80in50 goal is found to be prudent.

Spatially explicit estimates of forest carbon emissions, mitigation costs and REDD+ opportunities in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Victoria; Laurance, Susan G.; Grech, Alana; Venter, Oscar

2017-04-01

Carbon emissions from the conversion and degradation of tropical forests contribute to anthropogenic climate change. Implementing programs to reduce emissions from tropical forest loss in Southeast Asia are perceived to be expensive due to high opportunity costs of avoided deforestation. However, these costs are not representative of all REDD+ opportunities as they are typically based on average costs across large land areas and are primarily for reducing deforestation from oil palm or pulp concessions. As mitigation costs and carbon benefits can vary according to site characteristics, spatially-explicit information should be used to assess cost-effectiveness and to guide the allocation of scarce REDD+ resources. We analyzed the cost-effectiveness of the following REDD+ strategies in Indonesia, one of the world’s largest sources of carbon emissions from deforestation: halting additional deforestation in protected areas, timber and oil palm concessions, reforesting degraded land and employing reduced-impact logging techniques in logging concessions. We discover that when spatial variation in costs and benefits is considered, low-cost options emerged even for the two most expensive strategies: protecting forests from conversion to oil palm and timber plantations. To achieve a low emissions reduction target of 25%, we suggest funding should target deforestation in protected areas, and oil palm and timber concessions to maximize emissions reductions at the lowest cumulative cost. Low-cost opportunities for reducing emissions from oil palm are where concessions have been granted on deep peat deposits or unproductive land. To achieve a high emissions reduction target of 75%, funding is allocated across all strategies, emphasizing that no single strategy can reduce emissions cost-effectively across all of Indonesia. These findings demonstrate that by using a spatially-targeted approach to identify high priority locations for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, REDD+ resources can be allocated cost-effectively across Indonesia.

MEMO2 - MEthane goes MObile - MEasurements and Modelling - Part 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röckmann, Thomas; Walter, Sylvia

2017-04-01

As mitigation of climate change is a key scientific and societal challenge, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) agreed to limit global warming "well below" 2˚ C and, if possible, below 1.5˚ C. Reaching this target requires massive reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, and achieving significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a logical headline targets of the EU climate action and of the H2020 strategy. CH4 emissions are a major contributor to Europe's global warming impact and emissions are not well quantified yet. There are significant discrepancies between official inventories of emissions and estimates derived from direct atmospheric measurement. Effective emission reduction can only be achieved if sources are properly quantified, and mitigation efforts are verified. New advanced combinations of measurement and modelling are needed to archive such quantification. MEMO2 will contribute to the targets of the EU with a focus on methane (CH4). The project will bridge the gap between large-scale scientific estimates from in situ monitoring programs and the 'bottom-up' estimates of emissions from local sources that are used in the national reporting by I) developing new and advanced mobile methane (CH4) measurements tools and networks, II) isotopic source identification, and III) modelling at different scales. Within the project qualified scientists will be educated in the use and implementation of interdisciplinary knowledge and techniques that are essential to meet and verify emission reduction goals. MEMO2 will facilitate intensive collaboration between the largely academic greenhouse gas monitoring community and non-academic partners who are responsible for evaluating and reporting greenhouse gas emissions to policy makers. MEMO2 is a European Training Network with more than 20 collaborators from 7 countries. It is a 4-years project and we will present the project and its objectives to the scientific community to foster collaboration and scientific exchange from the beginning.

Permafrost thaw strongly reduces allowable CO2 emissions for 1.5°C and 2°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kechiar, M.; Gasser, T.; Kleinen, T.; Ciais, P.; Huang, Y.; Burke, E.; Obersteiner, M.

2017-12-01

We quantify how the inclusion of carbon emission from permafrost thaw impacts the budgets of allowable anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 which we expand with a permafrost module calibrated to emulate the behavior of the complex models JSBACH, ORCHIDEE and JULES. When using the "exceedance" method and with permafrost thaw turned off, we find budgets very close to the CMIP5 models' estimates reported by IPCC. With permafrost thaw turned on, the total budgets are reduced by 3-4%. This corresponds to a 33-45% reduction of the remaining budget for 1.5°C, and a 9-13% reduction for 2°C. When using the "avoidance" method, however, permafrost thaw reduces the total budget by 3-7%, which corresponds to reductions by 33-56% and 56-79% of the remaining budget for 1.5°C and 2°C, respectively. The avoidance method relies on many scenarios that actually peak below the target whereas the exceedance method overlooks the carbon emitted by thawed permafrost after the temperature target is reached, which explains the difference. If we use only the subset of scenarios in which there is no net negative emissions, the permafrost-induced reduction in total budgets rises to 6-15%. Permafrost thaw therefore makes the emission budgets strongly path-dependent. We also estimate budgets of needed carbon capture in scenarios overshooting the temperature targets. Permafrost thaw strongly increases these capture budgets: in the case of a 1.5°C target overshot by 0.5°C, which is in line with the Paris agreement, about 30% more carbon must be captured. Our conclusions are threefold. First, inclusion of permafrost thaw systematically reduces the emission budgets, and very strongly so if the temperature target is overshot. Second, the exceedance method, that is the only one that complex models can follow, only partially accounts for the effect of slow non-linear processes such as permafrost thaw, leading to overestimated budgets. Third, the newfound strong path-dependency of the budgets renders the concept more delicate to use. For instance, using a budget that implicitly assumes a large development of negative emission technologies may lead to missing the target if these are not as scalable as anticipated.

Reviews on current carbon emission reduction technologies and projects and their feasibilities on ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haibin; Zhou, Peilin; Wang, Zhongcheng

2017-06-01

Concern about global climate change is growing, and many projects and researchers are committed to reducing greenhouse gases from all possible sources. International Maritime (IMO) has set a target of 20% CO2 reduction from shipping by 2020 and also presented a series of carbon emission reduction methods, which are known as Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Energy Efficiency Operation Indicator (EEOI). Reviews on carbon emission reduction from all industries indicate that, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is an excellent solution to global warming. In this paper, a comprehensive literature review of EEDI and EEOI and CCS is conducted and involves reviewing current policies, introducing common technologies, and considering their feasibilities for marine activities, mainly shipping. Current projects are also presented in this paper, thereby illustrating that carbon emission reduction has been the subject of attention from all over the world. Two case ship studies indicate the economic feasibility of carbon emission reduction and provide a guide for CCS system application and practical installation on ships.

Evaluation of low emission zone policy on vehicle emission reduction in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Andre, Michel; Liu, Yao; Wu, Lin; Jing, Boyu; Mao, Hongjun

2018-02-01

This study evaluates the effect of the LEZ in Beijing from the perspective of vehicle emission reduction based on developing an urban street-scale vehicle emission inventory on the basis of the local emission factors and the dynamic or static traffic data via a bottom-up approach. In 2016, before the implementation of the LEZ, the vehicle emission of CO, HC, NOx, and PM were 49.01×104, 6.31×104, 5.96×104, and 0.12×104 t, respectively. According to the simulation results, the LEZ policy would have an obviously positive effect on emission reduction, especially for CO and HC. In order to realize the long-term mitigation target, it is necessary to update and amend the detailed terms of the LEZ policy regularly according to the traffic development and vehicle emission change.

Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, Drew; Kuylenstierna, Johan C. I.; Vignati, Elisabetta; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Markus; Klimont, Zbigniew; Anenberg, Susan C.; Muller, Nicholas; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Raes, Frank; Schwartz, Joel; Faluvegi, Greg; Pozzoli, Luca; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Emberson, Lisa; Streets, David; Ramanathan, V.; Hicks, Kevin; Oanh, N. T. Kim; Milly, George; Williams, Martin; Demkine, Volodymyr; Fowler, David

2012-01-01

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

PubMed Central

Norman, Jonathan B.; Allwood, Julian M.

2017-01-01

Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Material demand reduction’. PMID:28461428

Vehicle emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers: trends and tradeoffs.

PubMed

Edwards, Morgan R; Klemun, Magdalena M; Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J; Winkler, Sandra L; Tamor, Michael A; Trancik, Jessika E

2017-08-24

Evaluating technology options to mitigate the climate impacts of road transportation can be challenging, particularly when they involve a tradeoff between long-lived emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide) and short-lived emissions (e.g., methane or black carbon). Here we present trends in short- and long-lived emissions for light- and heavy-duty transport globally and in the U.S., EU, and China over the period 2000-2030, and we discuss past and future changes to vehicle technologies to reduce these emissions. We model the tradeoffs between short- and long-lived emission reductions across a range of technology options, life cycle emission intensities, and equivalency metrics. While short-lived vehicle emissions have decreased globally over the past two decades, significant reductions in CO 2 will be required by mid-century to meet climate change mitigation targets. This is true regardless of the time horizon used to compare long- and short-lived emissions. The short-lived emission intensities of some low-CO 2 technologies are higher than others, and thus their suitability for meeting climate targets depends sensitively on the evaluation time horizon. Other technologies offer low intensities of both short-lived emissions and CO 2 .

Introduction of Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy Issues in Energy - Environment Model of Latvia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klavs, G.; Rekis, J.

2016-12-01

The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).

Emissions reductions from expanding state-level renewable portfolio standards.

PubMed

Johnson, Jeremiah X; Novacheck, Joshua

2015-05-05

In the United States, state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) have served as key drivers for the development of new renewable energy. This research presents a method to evaluate emissions reductions and costs attributable to new or expanded RPS programs by integrating a comprehensive economic dispatch model and a renewable project selection model. The latter model minimizes incremental RPS costs, accounting for renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs), displaced generation and capacity costs, and net changes to a state's imports and exports. We test this method on potential expansions to Michigan's RPS, evaluating target renewable penetrations of 10% (business as usual or BAU), 20%, 25%, and 40%, with varying times to completion. Relative to the BAU case, these expanded RPS policies reduce the CO2 intensity of generation by 13%, 18%, and 33% by 2035, respectively. SO2 emissions intensity decreased by 13%, 20%, and 34% for each of the three scenarios, while NOx reductions totaled 12%, 17%, and 31%, relative to the BAU case. For CO2 and NOx, absolute reductions in emissions intensity were not as large due to an increasing trend in emissions intensity in the BAU case driven by load growth. Over the study period (2015 to 2035), the absolute CO2 emissions intensity increased by 1% in the 20% RPS case and decreased by 6% and 22% for the 25% and 40% cases, respectively. Between 26% and 31% of the CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions reductions attributable to the expanded RPS occur in neighboring states, underscoring the challenges quantifying local emissions reductions from state-level energy policies with an interconnected grid. Without federal subsidies, the cost of CO2 mitigation using an RPS in Michigan is between $28 and $34/t CO2 when RPS targets are met. The optimal renewable build plan is sensitive to the capacity credit for solar but insensitive to the value for wind power.

A modeling analysis of alternative primary and secondary US ozone standards in urban and rural areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Emery, Chris; Sakulyanontvittaya, Tanarit; Jung, Jaegun; Knipping, Eladio; Yarwood, Greg

2014-12-01

This study employed the High-Order Decoupled Direct Method (HDDM) of sensitivity analysis in a photochemical grid model to determine US anthropogenic emissions reductions required from 2006 levels to meet alternative US primary (health-based) and secondary (welfare-based) ozone (O3) standards. Applying the modeling techniques developed by Yarwood et al. (2013), we specifically evaluated sector-wide emission reductions needed to meet primary standards in the range of 60-75 ppb, and secondary standards in the range of 7-15 ppm-h, in 22 cities and at 20 rural sites across the US for NOx-only, combined NOx and VOC, and VOC-only scenarios. Site-specific model biases were taken into account by applying adjustment factors separately for the primary and secondary standard metrics, analogous to the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) relative response factor technique. Both bias-adjusted and unadjusted results are presented and analyzed. We found that the secondary metric does not necessarily respond to emission reductions the same way the primary metric does, indicating sensitivity to their different forms. Combined NOx and VOC reductions are most effective for cities, whereas NOx-only reductions are sufficient at rural sites. Most cities we examined require more than 50% US anthropogenic emission reductions from 2006 levels to meet the current primary 75 ppb US standard and secondary 15 ppm-h target. Most rural sites require less than 20% reductions to meet the primary 75 ppb standard and less than 40% reductions to meet the secondary 15 ppm-h target. Whether the primary standard is protective of the secondary standard depends on the combination of alternative standard levels. Our modeling suggests that the current 75 ppb standard achieves a 15 ppm-h secondary target in most (17 of 22) cities, but only half of the rural sites; the inability for several western cities and rural areas to achieve the seasonally-summed secondary 15 ppm-h target while meeting the 75 ppb primary target is likely driven by higher background O3 that is commonly reported in the western US. However, a 70 ppb primary standard is protective of a 15 ppm-h secondary standard in all cities and 18 of 20 rural sites we examined, and a 60 ppb primary standard is protective of a 7 ppm-h secondary standard in all cities and 19 of 20 rural sites. If EPA promulgates separate primary and secondary standards, exceedance areas will need to develop and demonstrate control strategies to achieve both. This HDDM analysis provides an illustrative screening assessment by which to estimate emissions reductions necessary to satisfy both standards.

Low Emissions Aftertreatment and Diesel Emissions Reduction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2005-05-27

Detroit Diesel Corporation (DDC) has successfully completed a five-year Low Emissions Aftertreatment and Diesel Emissions Reduction (LEADER) program under a DOE project entitled: ''Research and Development for Compression-Ignition Direct-Injection Engines (CIDI) and Aftertreatment Sub-Systems''. The objectives of the LEADER Program were to: Demonstrate technologies that will achieve future federal Tier 2 emissions targets; and Demonstrate production-viable technical targets for engine out emissions, efficiency, power density, noise, durability, production cost, aftertreatment volume and weight. These objectives were successfully met during the course of the LEADER program The most noteworthy achievements in this program are listed below: (1) Demonstrated Tier 2 Binmore » 3 emissions target over the FTP75 cycle on a PNGV-mule Neon passenger car, utilizing a CSF + SCR system These aggressive emissions were obtained with no ammonia (NH{sub 3}) slip and a combined fuel economy of 63 miles per gallon, integrating FTP75 and highway fuel economy transient cycle test results. Demonstrated feasibility to achieve Tier 2 Bin 8 emissions levels without active NOx aftertreatment. (2) Demonstrated Tier 2 Bin 3 emissions target over the FTP75 cycle on a light-duty truck utilizing a CSF + SCR system, synergizing efforts with the DOE-DDC DELTA program. This aggressive reduction in tailpipe out emissions was achieved with no ammonia slip and a 41% fuel economy improvement, compared to the equivalent gasoline engine-equipped vehicle. (3) Demonstrated Tier 2 near-Bin 9 emissions compliance on a light-duty truck, without active NOx aftertreatment devices, in synergy with the DOE-DDC DELTA program. (4) Developed and applied advanced combustion technologies such as ''CLEAN Combustion{copyright}'', which yields simultaneous reduction in engine out NOx and PM emissions while also improving engine and aftertreatment integration by providing favorable exhaust species and temperature characteristics. These favorable emissions characteristics were obtained while maintaining performance and fuel economy. These aggressive emissions and performance results were achieved by applying a robust systems technology development methodology. This systems approach benefits substantially from an integrated experimental and analytical approach to technology development, which is one of DDCs core competencies Also, DDC is uniquely positioned to undertake such a systems technology development approach, given its vertically integrated commercial structure within the DaimlerChrysler organization. State-of-the-art analytical tools were developed targeting specific LEADER program objectives and were applied to guide system enhancements and to provide testing directions, resulting in a shortened and efficient development cycle. Application examples include ammonia/NO{sub x} distribution improvement and urea injection controls development, and were key contributors to significantly reduce engine out as well as tailpipe out emissions. Successful cooperation between DDC and Engelhard Corporation, the major subcontractor for the LEADER program and provider of state-of-the-art technologies on various catalysts, was another contributing factor to ensure that both passenger car and LD truck applications achieved Tier 2 Bin 3 emissions levels. Significant technical challenges, which highlight barriers of commercialization of diesel technology for passenger cars and LD truck applications, are presented at the end of this report.« less

The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate.

PubMed

Velders, Guus J M; Andersen, Stephen O; Daniel, John S; Fahey, David W; McFarland, Mack

2007-03-20

The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark agreement that has successfully reduced the global production, consumption, and emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are also greenhouse gases that contribute to the radiative forcing of climate change. Using historical ODSs emissions and scenarios of potential emissions, we show that the ODS contribution to radiative forcing most likely would have been much larger if the ODS link to stratospheric ozone depletion had not been recognized in 1974 and followed by a series of regulations. The climate protection already achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone is far larger than the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Additional climate benefits that are significant compared with the Kyoto Protocol reduction target could be achieved by actions under the Montreal Protocol, by managing the emissions of substitute fluorocarbon gases and/or implementing alternative gases with lower global warming potentials.

The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate

PubMed Central

Velders, Guus J. M.; Andersen, Stephen O.; Daniel, John S.; Fahey, David W.; McFarland, Mack

2007-01-01

The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark agreement that has successfully reduced the global production, consumption, and emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are also greenhouse gases that contribute to the radiative forcing of climate change. Using historical ODSs emissions and scenarios of potential emissions, we show that the ODS contribution to radiative forcing most likely would have been much larger if the ODS link to stratospheric ozone depletion had not been recognized in 1974 and followed by a series of regulations. The climate protection already achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone is far larger than the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Additional climate benefits that are significant compared with the Kyoto Protocol reduction target could be achieved by actions under the Montreal Protocol, by managing the emissions of substitute fluorocarbon gases and/or implementing alternative gases with lower global warming potentials. PMID:17360370

Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gernaat, David; Calvin, Katherine V.; Lucas, Paul

2015-07-01

The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In ordermore » to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.« less

40 CFR Table 4 of Subpart Bbbbbbb... - Continuous Compliance Demonstration Methods With the Emission Reduction and PM Concentration...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... compliance by * * * 1. Requirement to route all process vent streams from equipment in target HAP service to a PM control device with a PM percent reduction efficiency of 95 percent (98 percent for new sources... chemical preparations operation was in target HAP service. The control device monitoring data are averaged...

40 CFR Table 4 of Subpart Bbbbbbb... - Continuous Compliance Demonstration Methods With the Emission Reduction and PM Concentration...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... compliance by * * * 1. Requirement to route all process vent streams from equipment in target HAP service to a PM control device with a PM percent reduction efficiency of 95 percent (98 percent for new sources... chemical preparations operation was in target HAP service. The control device monitoring data are averaged...

40 CFR Table 4 of Subpart Bbbbbbb... - Continuous Compliance Demonstration Methods With the Emission Reduction and PM Concentration...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... compliance by * * * 1. Requirement to route all process vent streams from equipment in target HAP service to a PM control device with a PM percent reduction efficiency of 95 percent (98 percent for new sources... chemical preparations operation was in target HAP service. The control device monitoring data are averaged...

40 CFR Table 4 of Subpart Bbbbbbb... - Continuous Compliance Demonstration Methods With the Emission Reduction and PM Concentration...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... compliance by * * * 1. Requirement to route all process vent streams from equipment in target HAP service to a PM control device with a PM percent reduction efficiency of 95 percent (98 percent for new sources... chemical preparations operation was in target HAP service. The control device monitoring data are averaged...

Aligning corporate greenhouse-gas emissions targets with climate goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krabbe, Oskar; Linthorst, Giel; Blok, Kornelis; Crijns-Graus, Wina; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Höhne, Niklas; Faria, Pedro; Aden, Nate; Pineda, Alberto Carrillo

2015-12-01

Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of clear methods to derive consistent corporate target setting that keeps cumulative corporate GHG emissions within a specific carbon budget (for example, 550-1,300 GtCO2 between 2011 and 2050 for the 2 °C target). Here we propose a method for corporate emissions target setting that derives carbon intensity pathways for companies based on sectoral pathways from existing mitigation scenarios: the Sectoral Decarbonization Approach (SDA). These company targets take activity growth and initial performance into account. Next to target setting on company level, the SDA can be used by companies, policymakers, investors or other stakeholders as a benchmark for tracking corporate climate performance and actions, providing a mechanism for corporate accountability.

Air quality co-benefits of subnational carbon policies

DOE PAGES

Thompson, Tammy M.; Rausch, Sebastian; Saari, Rebecca K.; ...

2016-05-18

To mitigate climate change, governments ranging from city to multi-national have adopted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. While the location of GHG reductions does not affect their climate benefits, it can impact human health benefits associated with co-emitted pollutants. Here, an advanced modeling framework is used to explore how subnational level GHG targets influence air pollutant co-benefits from ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Two carbon policy scenarios are analyzed, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast US: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy,more » and a Clean Energy Standard (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only. Results suggest that a regional CES policy will cost about 10 times more than a CAT policy. Despite having the same regional targets in the Northeast, carbon leakage to non-capped regions varies between policies. Consequently, a regional CAT policy will result in national carbon reductions that are over six times greater than the carbon reduced by the CES in 2030. Monetized regional human health benefits of the CAT and CES policies are 844% and 185% of the costs of each policy, respectively. Benefits for both policies are thus estimated to exceed their costs in the Northeast US. The estimated value of human health co-benefits associated with air pollution reductions for the CES scenario is two times that of the CAT scenario. Implications: In this research, an advanced modeling framework is used to determine the potential impacts of regional carbon policies on air pollution co-benefits associated with ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Study results show that spatially heterogeneous GHG policies have the potential to create areas of air pollution dis-benefit. It is also shown that monetized human health benefits within the area covered by policy may be larger than the model estimated cost of the policy. These findings are of particular interest both as U.S. states work to develop plans to meet state-level carbon emissions reduction targets set by the EPA through the Clean Power Plan, and in the absence of comprehensive national carbon policy.« less

Air quality co-benefits of subnational carbon policies.

PubMed

Thompson, Tammy M; Rausch, Sebastian; Saari, Rebecca K; Selin, Noelle E

2016-10-01

To mitigate climate change, governments ranging from city to multi-national have adopted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. While the location of GHG reductions does not affect their climate benefits, it can impact human health benefits associated with co-emitted pollutants. Here, an advanced modeling framework is used to explore how subnational level GHG targets influence air pollutant co-benefits from ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Two carbon policy scenarios are analyzed, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast US: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy, and a Clean Energy Standard (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only. Results suggest that a regional CES policy will cost about 10 times more than a CAT policy. Despite having the same regional targets in the Northeast, carbon leakage to non-capped regions varies between policies. Consequently, a regional CAT policy will result in national carbon reductions that are over six times greater than the carbon reduced by the CES in 2030. Monetized regional human health benefits of the CAT and CES policies are 844% and 185% of the costs of each policy, respectively. Benefits for both policies are thus estimated to exceed their costs in the Northeast US. The estimated value of human health co-benefits associated with air pollution reductions for the CES scenario is two times that of the CAT scenario. In this research, an advanced modeling framework is used to determine the potential impacts of regional carbon policies on air pollution co-benefits associated with ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Study results show that spatially heterogeneous GHG policies have the potential to create areas of air pollution dis-benefit. It is also shown that monetized human health benefits within the area covered by policy may be larger than the model estimated cost of the policy. These findings are of particular interest both as U.S. states work to develop plans to meet state-level carbon emissions reduction targets set by the EPA through the Clean Power Plan, and in the absence of comprehensive national carbon policy.

Role of waste management with regard to climate protection: a case study.

PubMed

Hackl, Albert; Mauschitz, Gerd

2008-02-01

According to the Kyoto Protocol and the burden-sharing agreement of the European Union, Austria is required to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the years 2008 to 2012 in order to achieve an average reduction of 13%, based on the level of emissions for the year 1990. The present contribution gives an overview of the history of GHG emission regulation in Austria and identifies the progress made towards the realization of the national climate strategy to attain the GHG emission targets. The contribution uses Austria as an example of the way in which proper waste management can help to reduce GHG emissions. The GHG inventories show that everything must be done to minimize the carbon input due to waste deposition at landfill sites. The incineration of waste is particularly helpful in reducing GHG emissions. The waste-to-energy by incineration plants and recovery of energy yield an ecologically proper treatment of waste using state-of-the-art techniques of a very high standard. The potential for GHG reduction of conventional waste treatment technologies has been estimated by the authors. A growing number of waste incinerators and intensified co-incineration of waste in Austrian industry will both help to reduce national GHG emissions substantially. By increasing the number and capacity of plants for thermal treatment of waste the contribution of proper waste management to the national target for reduction of GHG emissions will be in the range of 8 to 14%. The GHG inventories also indicate that a potential CO2 reduction of about 500 000 t year(-1) is achievable by co-incineration of waste in Austrian industry.

Simulating evolution of technology: An aid to energy policy analysis. A case study of strategies to control greenhouse gases in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyboer, John

Issues related to the reduction of greenhouse gases are encumbered with uncertainties for decision makers. Unfortunately, conventional analytical tools generate widely divergent forecasts of the effects of actions designed to mitigate these emissions. "Bottom-up" models show the costs of reducing emissions attained through the penetration of efficient technologies to be low or negative. In contrast, more aggregate "top-down" models show costs of reduction to be high. The methodological approaches of the different models used to simulate energy consumption generate, in part, the divergence found in model outputs. To address this uncertainty and bring convergence, I use a technology-explicit model that simulates turnover of equipment stock as a function of detailed data on equipment costs and stock characteristics and of verified behavioural data related to equipment acquisition and retrofitting. Such detail can inform the decision maker of the effects of actions to reduce greenhouse gases due to changes in (1) technology stocks, (2) products or services, or (3) the mix of fuels used. This thesis involves two main components: (1) the development of a quantitative model to analyse energy demand and (2) the application of this tool to a policy issue, abatement of COsb2 emissions. The analysis covers all of Canada by sector (8 industrial subsectors, residential commercial) and region. An electricity supply model to provide local electricity prices supplemented the quantitative model. Forecasts of growth and structural change were provided by national macroeconomic models. Seven different simulations were applied to each sector in each region including a base case run and three runs simulating emissions charges of 75/tonne, 150/tonne and 225/tonne CO sb2. The analysis reveals that there is significant variation in the costs and quantity of emissions reduction by sector and region. Aggregated results show that Canada can meet both stabilisation targets (1990 levels of emissions by 2000) and reduction targets (20% less than 1990 by 2010), but the cost of meeting reduction targets exceeds 225/tonne. After a review of the results, I provide several reasons for concluding that the costs are overestimated and the emissions reduction underestimated. I also provide several future research options.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Heeter, Jenny

This analysis is the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). This joint National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory project provides a retrospective analysis of RPS program benefits and impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions reductions, air pollution emission reductions, water use reductions, gross jobs and economic development impacts, wholesale electricity price reduction impacts, and natural gas price reduction impacts. Wherever possible, benefits and impacts are quantified in monetary terms. The paper will inform state policymakers, RPS program administrators, industry, and others about the costs and benefits of state RPS programs. In particular,more » the work seeks to inform decision-making surrounding ongoing legislative proposals to scale back, freeze, or expand existing RPS programs, as well as future discussions about increasing RPS targets or otherwise increasing renewable energy associated with Clean Power Plan compliance or other emission-reduction goals.« less

Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Heeter, Jenny

This analysis is the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). This joint National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory project provides a retrospective analysis of RPS program benefits and impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions reductions, air pollution emission reductions, water use reductions, gross jobs and economic development impacts, wholesale electricity price reduction impacts, and natural gas price reduction impacts. Wherever possible, benefits and impacts are quantified in monetary terms. The paper will inform state policymakers, RPS program administrators, industry, and others about the costs and benefits of state RPS programs. In particular,more » the work seeks to inform decision-making surrounding ongoing legislative proposals to scale back, freeze, or expand existing RPS programs, as well as future discussions about increasing RPS targets or otherwise increasing renewable energy associated with Clean Power Plan compliance or other emission-reduction goals.« less

Could US mayors achieve the entire US Paris climate target?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurney, K. R.; Huang, J.; Hutchins, M.; Liang, J.

2017-12-01

After the recent US Federal Administration announcement not to adhere to the Paris Accords, 359 mayors (and counting) in the US pledged to maintain their commitments, reducing emissions within their jurisdictions by 26-28% from their 2005 levels by the year 2025. While important, this leaves a large portion of the US landscape, and a large amount of US emissions, outside of the Paris commitment. With Federal US policy looking unlikely to change, could additional effort by US cities overcome the gap in national policy and achieve the equivalent US national Paris commitment? How many cities would be required and how deep would reductions need to be? Up until now, this question could not be reliably resolved due to lack of data at the urban scale. Here, we answer this question with new data - the Vulcan V3.0 FFCO2 emissions data product - through examination of the total US energy related CO2 emissions from cities. We find that the top 500 urban areas in the US could meet the national US commitment to the Paris Accords with a reduction of roughly 30% below their 2015 levels by the year 2025. This is driven by the share of US emissions emanating from cities, particularly the largest cohort. Indeed, as the number of urban areas taking on CO2 reduction targets grows, the less the reduction burden on any individual city. In this presentation, we provide an analysis of US urban CO2 emissions and US climate policy, accounting for varying definitions of urban areas, emitting sectors and the tradeoff between the number of policy-active cities and the CO2 reduction burden.

Joint optimization of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies in a regional logistics network with CO 2 emission reduction targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Dezhi; Zhan, Qingwen; Chen, Yuche

This study proposes an optimization model that simultaneously incorporates the selection of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies for green transport modes to achieve specific CO 2 emission targets in a regional logistics network. The proposed model is formulated as a bi-level formulation, in which the upper level determines the optimal selection of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies for green transport modes such that the benefit-cost ratio of the entire logistics system is maximized. The lower level describes the selected service routes of logistics users. A genetic and Frank-Wolfe hybrid algorithm is introduced to solve the proposed model. The proposed modelmore » is applied to the regional logistics network of Changsha City, China. Findings show that using the joint scheme of the selection of logistics infrastructure investments and green subsidies is more effective than using them solely. In conclusion, carbon emission reduction targets can significantly affect logistics infrastructure investments and subsidy levels.« less

Joint optimization of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies in a regional logistics network with CO 2 emission reduction targets

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Dezhi; Zhan, Qingwen; Chen, Yuche; ...

2016-03-14

This study proposes an optimization model that simultaneously incorporates the selection of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies for green transport modes to achieve specific CO 2 emission targets in a regional logistics network. The proposed model is formulated as a bi-level formulation, in which the upper level determines the optimal selection of logistics infrastructure investments and subsidies for green transport modes such that the benefit-cost ratio of the entire logistics system is maximized. The lower level describes the selected service routes of logistics users. A genetic and Frank-Wolfe hybrid algorithm is introduced to solve the proposed model. The proposed modelmore » is applied to the regional logistics network of Changsha City, China. Findings show that using the joint scheme of the selection of logistics infrastructure investments and green subsidies is more effective than using them solely. In conclusion, carbon emission reduction targets can significantly affect logistics infrastructure investments and subsidy levels.« less

Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals.

PubMed

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Su, Xuanming; Liu, Jing-Yu; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Takimi, Maho

2016-01-01

The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model framework. To achieve the 2 °C goal, a large greenhouse gas emissions reduction is required, either in the early or latter half of this century. In the mid-term (from 2030 to 2050), it may be necessary to consider rapid changes to the existing energy or socioeconomic systems, while long-term measures (after 2050) will rely on the substantial use of biomass combined with carbon capture and storage technology or afforestation, which will eventually realize so-called negative CO2 emissions. With respect to the policy context, two suggestions are provided here. The first is the review and revision of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020, with an additional reduction target to the current NDCs being one workable alternative. The second suggestion is a concrete and numerical mid-term emissions reduction target, for example to be met by 2040 or 2050, which could also help to achieve the long-term climate goal.

Will international emissions trading help achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Kubota, Izumi; Dai, Hancheng; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Liu, Jing-Yu; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takimi, Maho

2016-10-01

Under the Paris Agreement, parties set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change. International carbon emissions trading is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here, we show the benefit of emissions trading under both NDCs and a more ambitious reduction scenario consistent with the 2 °C goal. The results show that the global welfare loss, which was measured based on estimated household consumption change in 2030, decreased by 75% (from 0.47% to 0.16%), as a consequence of achieving NDCs through emissions trading. Furthermore, achieving the 2 °C targets without emissions trading led to a global welfare loss of 1.4%-3.4%, depending on the burden-sharing scheme used, whereas emissions trading reduced the loss to around 1.5% (from 1.4% to 1.7%). These results indicate that emissions trading is a valuable option for the international system, enabling NDCs and more ambitious targets to be achieved in a cost-effective manner.

BP pledges to cut emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

British Petroleum (BP), one of the world's biggest oil companies that could become even bigger if a merger with Amoco is approved, announced on September 18 that it will cut its emissions of greenhouse gases by 10% from a 1990 baseline of 40 million tons of carbon dioxide between now and the year 2010.The target, which is double the amount of emissions reductions that industrialized nations agreed to under the Kyoto protocol on climate change, will now stand next to BP's financial targets, said John Browne, group chief executive of BP.

Carbon accounting in the United Kingdom water sector: a review.

PubMed

Prescott, C

2009-01-01

The UK is committed to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets and has introduced a number of initiatives to achieve these. Until recently, these targeted energy-intensive industries and, thus, the water sector was not significantly affected. However, from 2010, UK water companies will need to report their emissions under the Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC). Both Ofwat (the economic regulator for water companies in England and Wales) and the Northern Ireland Authority for Utility Regulation (NIAUR) now require annual reporting of GHG emissions in accordance with both Defra Guidelines and the CRC. Also, carbon impacts must now be factored into all water industry investment planning in England and Wales. Building on existing approaches, the industry has developed standardised carbon accounting methodologies to meet both of these requirements. This process has highlighted gaps in knowledge where further research is needed.

Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

PubMed

Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

2014-09-01

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.

Potency of energy saving and emission reduction from lighting system in residential sector of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambarita, H.

2018-03-01

The Government of Indonesia (GoI) has a strong commitment to the target of decreasing energy intensity and reducing Greenhouse gas emissions. One of the significant solutions to reach the target is increasing energy efficiency in the lighting system in the residential sector. The objective of this paper is twofold, to estimate the potency of energy saving and emission reduction from lighting in the residential sector. Literature related to the lighting system in Indonesia has been reviewed to provide sufficient data for the estimation of the energy saving and emission reduction. The results show that the in the year 2016, a total of 95.33 TWh of nationally produced electricity is used in the residential sector. This is equal to 44% of total produced electricity. The number of costumers is 64.78 million houses. The average number of lamps and average wattage of lamps used in Indonesia are 8.35 points and 13.8 W, respectively. The number of lighting and percentage of electricity used for lighting in the residential sector in Indonesia are 20.03 TWh (21.02 %) and 497 million lamps, respectively. The projection shows that in the year 2026 the total energy for lighting and number of lamps in the residential sector are 25.05 TWh and 619 million, respectively. By promoting the present technology of high efficient lamps (LED), the potency of energy saving and emission reduction in 2026 are 2.6 TWh and 2.1 million tons CO2eq, respectively.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets.

PubMed

Steinacher, Marco; Joos, Fortunat; Stocker, Thomas F

2013-07-11

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Investigation of the hydrodynamics and emission of a laser heated tamped high-Z target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, William J.; Foord, Mark E.; Schneider, Marilyn B.; Barrios, Maria A.; Brown, Greg V.; Heeter, Robert F.; Jarrott, L. Charlie; Liedahl, Duane A.; Marley, Ed V.; Mauche, Chris W.; Widmann, Klaus

2018-06-01

We investigate the hydrodynamic expansion and x-ray emission of a laser-heated buried-layer target. This work is motivated by our interest in developing an experimental platform for probing plasma properties under relatively uniform conditions, such as ionization and equation of state. Targets consist of a few thousand angstrom-thick layer of material, embedded in a few microns of the tamper material (typically beryllium), which are irradiated on both sides by an intense few-nanosecond laser pulse. The expansion and emission of our target, composed of a homogeneous mixture of iron, vanadium, and gold, are simulated using the 2-D LASNEX code. Reasonable agreement is found with the time history of the x-ray emission traces (DANTE). Both experiments and simulations exhibit an interesting reduction in the radial size of the emission region with time, as measured using face-on imaging. This is shown to be due to the ablation of the beryllium tamper, which affects the radial confinement of the embedded target. Simulations using a larger diameter beryllium tamper are found to mitigate this effect, improving the one-dimensionality of the expansion.

40 CFR Table 1 of Subpart Bbbbbbb... - Emission Reduction and PM Concentration Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... from equipment in target HAP service Route the process vent stream to a PM control device with:a. A PM percent reduction efficiency of 95 percent (98 percent for new sources), or b. An outlet concentration of...

40 CFR Table 1 of Subpart Bbbbbbb... - Emission Reduction and PM Concentration Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... from equipment in target HAP service Route the process vent stream to a PM control device with:a. A PM percent reduction efficiency of 95 percent (98 percent for new sources), or b. An outlet concentration of...

Green Desktop Computing at the University of Oxford

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noble, Howard; Curtis, Daniel; Tang, Kang

2009-01-01

The government of the United Kingdom has set a target to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 34 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. The Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) will require all large public and private sector organizations across the U.K. to cut carbon emissions and report total CO2 emissions annually so that the data can be published in a…

The roles of energy and material efficiency in meeting steel industry CO2 targets.

PubMed

Milford, Rachel L; Pauliuk, Stefan; Allwood, Julian M; Müller, Daniel B

2013-04-02

Identifying strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from steel production requires a comprehensive model of the sector but previous work has either failed to consider the whole supply chain or considered only a subset of possible abatement options. In this work, a global mass flow analysis is combined with process emissions intensities to allow forecasts of future steel sector emissions under all abatement options. Scenario analysis shows that global capacity for primary steel production is already near to a peak and that if sectoral emissions are to be reduced by 50% by 2050, the last required blast furnace will be built by 2020. Emissions reduction targets cannot be met by energy and emissions efficiency alone, but deploying material efficiency provides sufficient extra abatement potential.

Advancing Development and Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Vietnam's Wind Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bilello, D.; Katz, J.; Esterly, S.

2014-09-01

Clean energy development is a key component of Vietnam's Green Growth Strategy, which establishes a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from domestic energy activities by 20-30 percent by 2030 relative to a business-as-usual scenario. Vietnam has significant wind energy resources, which, if developed, could help the country reach this target while providing ancillary economic, social, and environmental benefits. Given Vietnam's ambitious clean energy goals and the relatively nascent state of wind energy development in the country, this paper seeks to fulfill two primary objectives: to distill timely and useful information to provincial-level planners, analysts, and project developers asmore » they evaluate opportunities to develop local wind resources; and, to provide insights to policymakers on how coordinated efforts may help advance large-scale wind development, deliver near-term GHG emission reductions, and promote national objectives in the context of a low emission development framework.« less

Assessing the INDCs' land use, land use change, and forest emission projections.

PubMed

Forsell, Nicklas; Turkovska, Olga; Gusti, Mykola; Obersteiner, Michael; Elzen, Michel den; Havlik, Petr

2016-12-01

In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries' respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties' expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties' official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1. On the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO 2 e year -1 (range: 0.1-1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO 2 e year -1 (range: 0.7-2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO 2 e year -1 (range: 0.2-0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO 2 e year -1 (range: 0.5-1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indonesia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia. The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections.

Assessment of the Performance Potential of Advanced Subsonic Transport Concepts for NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nickol, Craig L.; Haller, William J.

2016-01-01

NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project has matured technologies to enable simultaneous reductions in fuel burn, noise, and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions for future subsonic commercial transport aircraft. The fuel burn reduction target was a 50% reduction in block fuel burn (relative to a 2005 best-in-class baseline aircraft), utilizing technologies with an estimated Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 4-6 by 2020. Progress towards this fuel burn reduction target was measured through the conceptual design and analysis of advanced subsonic commercial transport concepts spanning vehicle size classes from regional jet (98 passengers) to very large twin aisle size (400 passengers). Both conventional tube-and-wing (T+W) concepts and unconventional (over-wing-nacelle (OWN), hybrid wing body (HWB), mid-fuselage nacelle (MFN)) concepts were developed. A set of propulsion and airframe technologies were defined and integrated onto these advanced concepts which were then sized to meet the baseline mission requirements. Block fuel burn performance was then estimated, resulting in reductions relative to the 2005 best-in-class baseline performance ranging from 39% to 49%. The advanced single-aisle and large twin aisle T+W concepts had reductions of 43% and 41%, respectively, relative to the 737-800 and 777-200LR aircraft. The single-aisle OWN concept and the large twin aisle class HWB concept had reductions of 45% and 47%, respectively. In addition to their estimated fuel burn reduction performance, these unconventional concepts have the potential to provide significant noise reductions due, in part, to engine shielding provided by the airframe. Finally, all of the advanced concepts also have the potential for significant NOx emissions reductions due to the use of advanced combustor technology. Noise and NOx emissions reduction estimates were also generated for these concepts as part of the ERA project.

Biodiversity Conservation in the REDD

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The tropics also harbour more than half the world's threatened species, raising the possibility that reducing GHG emissions by curtailing tropical deforestation could provide substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation. Here we explore the potential for such co-benefits in Indonesia, a leading source of GHG emissions from land cover and land use change, and among the most species-rich countries in the world. We show that focal ecosystems for interventions to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Indonesia do not coincide with areas supporting the most species-rich communities or highest concentration of threatened species. We argue that inherent trade-offs among ecosystems in emission reduction potential, opportunity cost of foregone development and biodiversity values will require a regulatory framework to balance emission reduction interventions with biodiversity co-benefit targets. We discuss how such a regulatory framework might function, and caution that pursuing emission reduction strategies without such a framework may undermine, not enhance, long-term prospects for biodiversity conservation in the tropics. PMID:21092321

Potential for Electrified Vehicles to Contribute to U.S. Petroleum and Climate Goals and Implications for Advanced Biofuels.

PubMed

Meier, Paul J; Cronin, Keith R; Frost, Ethan A; Runge, Troy M; Dale, Bruce E; Reinemann, Douglas J; Detlor, Jennifer

2015-07-21

To examine the national fuel and emissions impacts from increasingly electrified light-duty transportation, we reconstructed the vehicle technology portfolios from two national vehicle studies. Using these vehicle portfolios, we normalized assumptions and examined sensitivity around the rates of electrified vehicle penetration, travel demand growth, and electricity decarbonization. We further examined the impact of substituting low-carbon advanced cellulosic biofuels in place of petroleum. Twenty-seven scenarios were benchmarked against a 50% petroleum-reduction target and an 80% GHG-reduction target. We found that with high rates of electrification (40% of miles traveled) the petroleum-reduction benchmark could be satisfied, even with high travel demand growth. The same highly electrified scenarios, however, could not satisfy 80% GHG-reduction targets, even assuming 80% decarbonized electricity and no growth in travel demand. Regardless of precise consumer vehicle preferences, emissions are a function of the total reliance on electricity versus liquid fuels and the corresponding greenhouse gas intensities of both. We found that at a relatively high rate of electrification (40% of miles and 26% by fuel), an 80% GHG reduction could only be achieved with significant quantities of low-carbon liquid fuel in cases with low or moderate travel demand growth.

Dynamic Management of NOx and SO2 Emissions in the Texas and Mid-Atlantic Electric Power Systems and Implications for Air Quality.

PubMed

McDonald-Buller, Elena; Kimura, Yosuke; Craig, Michael; McGaughey, Gary; Allen, David; Webster, Mort

2016-02-02

Cap and trade programs have historically been designed to achieve annual or seasonal reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants. Emissions reductions may not be temporally coincident with meteorological conditions conducive to the formation of peak ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations. Integrated power system and air quality modeling methods were developed to evaluate time-differentiated emissions price signals on high ozone days in the Mid-Atlantic portion of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) Interconnection and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grids. Sufficient flexibility exists in the two grids with marked differences in demand and fuel generation mix to accommodate time-differentiated emissions pricing alone or in combination with a season-wide program. System-wide emissions reductions and production costs from time-differentiated pricing are shown to be competitive with those of a season-wide program on high ozone days and would be more cost-effective if the primary policy goal was to target emissions reductions on these days. Time-differentiated pricing layered as a complement to the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule had particularly pronounced benefits for the Mid-Atlantic PJM system that relies heavily on coal-fired generation. Time-differentiated pricing aimed at reducing ozone concentrations had particulate matter reduction co-benefits, but if particulate matter reductions are the primary objective, other approaches to time-differentiated pricing may lead to greater benefits.

The Effect of Emissions Trading And Carbon Sequestration on The Cost Of CO2 Emissions Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahasenan, Natesan; Scott, Michael J.; Smith, Steven J.

2002-08-05

The deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CC&S) technologies is greatly affected by the marginal cost of controlling carbon emissions (also the value of carbon, when emissions permits are traded). Emissions limits that are more stringent in the near term imply higher near-term carbon values and therefore encourage the local development and deployment of CC&S technologies. In addition, trade in emissions obligations lowers the cost of meeting any regional or global emissions limit and so affects the rate of penetration of CC&S technologies. We examine the effects of the availability of sequestration opportunities and emissions trading (either within select regionsmore » or globally) on the cost of emissions mitigation and compliance with different emissions reduction targets for the IPCC SRES scenarios. For each base scenario and emissions target, we examine the issues outlined above and present quantitative estimates for the impacts of trade and the availability of sequestration opportunities in meeting emissions limitation obligations.« less

50% REDUCTION IN GLOBAL GHG EMISSION BY 2050 AND ITS IMPLICATION

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

To prevent the global temperature increase by two degrees, global greenhouse gas emission in 2050 should be cut by half relative to its 1990 level. This study shows following three things by using multi regions and sectors recursive dynamic type computable general equilibrium model. One is the feasibility of that global emission target. The others are the counter measures and the impact on the macro economy, if that target were feasible. In addition, the scenarios with and without international emission trading are implemented and the effect of the trading is analyzed. As a result, that target can be achieved. The marginal abatement cost is 750/tCO2-eq in 2050. Energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage technologies are the main players as counter measures. If the emission trading is available freely, GDP loss is 4.5% globally in 2050. Otherwise, the loss is increased to 6.1%. The emission trading mechanism is also one of the important measures.

Borax and Octabor Treatment of Stored Swine Manure: Reduction in Hydrogen Sulfide Emissions and Phytotoxicity to Agronomic Crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Gaseous emissions from stored manure have become environmental and health issues for humans and animals as the livestock industry becomes specialized and concentrated. Of particular concern is hydrogen sulfide, which is being targeted for regulatory control in concentrated animal farm operations. ...

The researches on energy sustainability in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Zhu, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Shuang

2018-06-01

Energy, which accounts for two-thirds of today's greenhouse gas emissions, is the key to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and slowing global warming. In this paper, the IPCC-recommended reference approach and scenario analysis were applied to evaluate dynamic change of the energy supply and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions within the period of 2000-2025 in Northern China (NC). The results show that energy importing reliance reached 85% in 2015 and the energy structure has become more diversified in NC. In addition, the per-capita CO2 emission is significantly higher while carbon intensity is lower than those of the national average. Under the LC scenario, CO2 emissions begin to fall for the first time in 2022. Hence, if Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction strategy and regional planning for NC are implemented fully, NC will achieve the national emission reduction targets in 2025 and will have a large CO2 mitigation potential in the future.

Atmospheric pollution reduction effect and regional predicament: An empirical analysis based on the Chinese provincial NOx emissions.

PubMed

Ding, Lei; Liu, Chao; Chen, Kunlun; Huang, Yalin; Diao, Beidi

2017-07-01

Atmospheric pollution emissions have become a matter of public concern in recent years. However, most of the existing researches on NOx pollution are from the natural science and technology perspective, few studies have been conducted from an economic point, and regional differences have not been given adequate attention. This paper adopts provincial panel data from 2006 to 2013 and the LMDI model to analyze the key driving factors and regional dilemmas of NOx emissions. The results show that significant regional disparities still exit on NO x emissions and its reduction effect 27 provinces didn't accomplish their corresponding reduction targets. Economic development factor is the dominating driving factor of NO x emissions during the study period, while energy efficiency and technology improvement factors offset total NO x emissions in the majority of provinces. In addition, the industrial structure factor plays a more significant role in reducing the NO x emissions after 2011. Therefore, the government should consider all these factors as well as regional heterogeneity in developing appropriate pollution mitigating policies. It's necessary to change NOx emissions control attitude from original key areas control to divided-zone control, not only attaches great importance to the reduction of the original key areas, but also emphasizes the new potential hotspots with high NO x emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combining Natural Attenuation Capacity and use of Targeted Technological Mitigation Measures for Reducing Diffuse Nutrient Emissions to Surface Waters: The Danish Way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kronvang, B.; Højberg, A. L.; Hoffmann, C. C.; Windolf, J.; Blicher-Mathiesen, G.

2015-12-01

Excess nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) emissions to surface waters are a high priority environmental problem worldwide for protection of water resources in times of population growth and climate change. As clean water is a scarce resource the struggle for reducing nutrient emissions are an ongoing issue for many countries and regions. Since the mid1980s a wide range of national regulatory general measures have been implemented to reduce land based nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loadings of the Danish aquatic environment. These measures have addressed both point source emissions and emissions from diffuse sources especially from agricultural production. Following nearly 4 decades of combating nutrient pollution our surface waters such as lakes and estuaries are only slowly responding on the 50% reduction in N and 56% reduction in P. Therefore, the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive in Danish surface waters still call for further reductions of N and P loadings. Therefore, a new era of targeted implemented measures was the outcome of a Commission on Nature and Agriculture established by the Danish Government in 2013. Their White Book points to the need of increased growth and better environment through more targeted and efficient regulation using advanced technological mitigation methods that are implemented intelligently according to the local natural attenuation capacity for nutrients in the landscape. As a follow up a national consensus model for N was established chaining existing leaching, 3D groundwater and surface water models that enable a calculation of the N dynamics and attenuation capacity within a scale of 15 km2. Moreover, several research projects have been conducted to investigate the effect of a suite of targeted mitigation measures such as restored natural wetlands, constructed wetlands, controlled drainage, buffer strips and constructed buffer strips. The results of these studies will be shared in this presentation.

Transportation futures : policy scenarios for achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

It is well established that GHG emissions must be reduced by 50% to 80% by 2050 in order to limit global temperature increase : to 2C. Achieving reductions of this magnitude in the transportation sector is a challenge and requires a multitude of po...

Investigation of CO2 emission reduction strategy from in-use gasoline vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, Arti; Gokhale, Sharad

2016-04-01

On road transport emissions is kicking off in Indian cities due to high levels of urbanization and economic growth during the last decade in Indian subcontinent. In 1951, about 17% of India's population were living in urban areas that increased to 32% in 2011. Currently, India is fourth largest Green House Gas (GHG) emitter in the world, with its transport sector being the second largest contributor of CO2 emissions. For achieving prospective carbon reduction targets, substantial opportunity among in-use vehicle is necessary to quantify. Since, urban traffic flow and operating condition has significant impact on exhaust emission (Choudhary and Gokhale, 2016). This study examined the influence of vehicular operating kinetics on CO2 emission from predominant private transportation vehicles of Indian metropolitan city, Guwahati. On-board instantaneous data were used to quantify the impact of CO2 emission on different mileage passenger cars and auto-rickshaws at different times of the day. Further study investigates CO2 emission reduction strategies by using International Vehicle Emission (IVE) model to improve co-benefit in private transportation by integrated effort such as gradual phase-out of inefficient vehicle and low carbon fuel. The analysis suggests that fuel type, vehicles maintenance and traffic flow management have potential for reduction of urban sector GHG emissions. Keywords: private transportation, CO2, instantaneous emission, IVE model Reference Choudhary, A., Gokhale, S. (2016). Urban real-world driving traffic emissions during interruption and congestion. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 43: 59-70.

Policy implications of uncertainty in modeled life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels.

PubMed

Mullins, Kimberley A; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2011-01-01

Biofuels have received legislative support recently in California's Low-Carbon Fuel Standard and the Federal Energy Independence and Security Act. Both present new fuel types, but neither provides methodological guidelines for dealing with the inherent uncertainty in evaluating their potential life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions reductions are based on point estimates only. This work demonstrates the use of Monte Carlo simulation to estimate life-cycle emissions distributions from ethanol and butanol from corn or switchgrass. Life-cycle emissions distributions for each feedstock and fuel pairing modeled span an order of magnitude or more. Using a streamlined life-cycle assessment, corn ethanol emissions range from 50 to 250 g CO(2)e/MJ, for example, and each feedstock-fuel pathway studied shows some probability of greater emissions than a distribution for gasoline. Potential GHG emissions reductions from displacing fossil fuels with biofuels are difficult to forecast given this high degree of uncertainty in life-cycle emissions. This uncertainty is driven by the importance and uncertainty of indirect land use change emissions. Incorporating uncertainty in the decision making process can illuminate the risks of policy failure (e.g., increased emissions), and a calculated risk of failure due to uncertainty can be used to inform more appropriate reduction targets in future biofuel policies.

[Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

PubMed

Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

2013-05-01

It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

Reconciling sectoral abatement strategies with global climate targets: the case of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet.

PubMed

Pauliuk, Stefan; Dhaniati, Ni Made A; Müller, Daniel B

2012-01-03

The IPCC Forth Assessment Report postulates that global warming can be limited to 2 °C by deploying technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialized in the coming decades. However, neither specific technological pathways nor internationally binding reduction targets for different sectors or countries have been established yet. Using the passenger car stock in China as example we compute direct CO(2) emissions until 2050 depending on population, car utilization, and fuel efficiency and compare them to benchmarks derived by assuming even contribution of all sectors and a unitary global per capita emission quota. Compared to present car utilization in industrialized countries, massive deployment of prototypes of fuel efficient cars could reduce emissions by about 45%, and moderately lower car use could contribute with another 33%. Still, emissions remain about five times higher than the benchmark for the 2 °C global warming target. Therefore an extended analysis, including in particular low-carbon fuels and the impact of urban and transport planning on annual distance traveled and car ownership, should be considered. A cross-sectoral comparison could reveal whether other sectors could bear an overproportional reduction quota instead. The proposed model offers direct interfaces to material industries, fuel production, and scrap vehicle supply.

Assessment of the trade-offs and synergies between low-carbon power sector transition and land and water resources of the United Kingdom using the "ForeseerTM" approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konadu, D. D.; Sobral Mourao, Z.

2016-12-01

Transitioning to a low-carbon power system has been identified as one of the main strategies for achieving GHG emissions reduction targets stipulated in the UK Climate Change Act (2008). However, projected mix of technologies aimed at achieving the targeted level of decarbonisation have implications for sustainable level natural resource exploitation at different spatial and temporal scales. Critical among these are the impact on land use (food production) and water resources, which are usually not adequately analysed and accounted for in developing these long-term energy system transition strategies and scenarios. Given the importance of the UK power sector to meeting economy-wide emissions targets, the overall environmental consequence of the prescribed scenarios could significantly affect meeting long-term legislated GHG emission reduction targets. It is therefore imperative that synergies and trade-offs between the power systems and these resources are comprehensively analysed. The current study employs an integrated energy and resource use accounting methodology, called ForeseerTM, to assess the land and water requirement for the deployment of the power sector technologies of the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) Carbon Budget scenarios. This is analysed under different scenarios of energy crop yield and electricity infrastructure location. The outputs are then compared with sustainable limits of resource exploitation to establish the environmental tractability of the scenarios. The results show that even if stringent environmental and land use restrictions are applied, all the projected bioenergy and ground-mounted solar PV can be deployed within the UK with no significant impacts on land use and food production. However, inland water resources would be significantly affected if high Carbon Capture and Storage deployment, and without new nuclear capacity. Overall, the output highlights that contrary to the notion of the inevitability of CCS deployment in delivering emissions reduction targets, a future without CCS poses the least overall environmental impacts.

Methane mitigation shows significant benefits towards achieving the 1.5 degree target.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.; Webber, C.; Cox, P. M.; Huntingford, C.; Lowe, J. A.; Sitch, S.

2017-12-01

Most analyses of allowable carbon emissions to achieve the 1.5 degree target implicitly assume that the ratio of CO2 to non-CO2 greenhouse gases remains near constant, and that all radiative forcing factors have similar impacts on land and ocean carbon storage. Here we determine how plausible reductions in methane emissions will make the carbon targets more feasible. We account for the latest estimates of the methane radiative effect as well as the indirect effects of methane on ozone. We particularly address the differing effects of methane and CO2 mitigation on the land carbon storage including via reduced concentrations of surface ozone. The methodology uses an intermediate complexity climate model (IMOGEN) coupled to a land surface model (JULES) which represents the details of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The carbon emissions inputs to IMOGEN are varied to find allowable pathways consistent with the Paris 1.5 K or 2.0 K targets. The IMOGEN physical parameters are altered to represent the climate characteristics of 38 CMIP5 models (such as climate sensitivity) to provide bounds on the range of allowable CO2 emissions. We examine the effects of three different methane mitigation options that are broadly consistent with the ranges in the SSP scenarios: little mitigation, cost-optimal mitigation, and maximal mitigation. The land and ocean carbon storage increases with methane mitigation, allowing more flexibility in CO2 emission reduction. This is mostly since CO2 fertilisation is reduced less with high methane mitigation, with a small contribution from reduced plant damage with lower surface ozone levels.

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Bertram, Christoph; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2013-09-01

While the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 ° C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 ° C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to ˜0.4 ° C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable, the lower limit of achievable targets rises by up to ˜0.3 ° C. Our results show that progress in international climate negotiations within this decade is imperative to keep the 2 ° C target within reach.

The potential for tree planting strategies to reduce local and regional ecosystem impacts of agricultural ammonia emissions.

PubMed

Bealey, W J; Dore, A J; Dragosits, U; Reis, S; Reay, D S; Sutton, M A

2016-01-01

Trees are very effective at capturing both gaseous and particulate pollutants from the atmosphere. But while studies have often focussed on PM and NOx in the urban environment, little research has been carried out on the tree effect of capturing gaseous emissions of ammonia in the rural landscape. To examine the removal or scavenging of ammonia by trees a long-range atmospheric model (FRAME) was used to compare two strategies that could be used in emission reduction policies anywhere in the world where nitrogen pollution from agriculture is a problem. One strategy was to reduce the emission source strength of livestock management systems by implementing two 'tree-capture' systems scenarios - tree belts downwind of housing and managing livestock under trees. This emission reduction can be described as an 'on-farm' emission reduction policy, as ammonia is 'stopped' from dispersion outside the farm boundaries. The second strategy was to apply an afforestation policy targeting areas of high ammonia emission through two planting scenarios of increasing afforestation by 25% and 50%. Both strategies use trees with the aim of intercepting NH3 emissions to protect semi-natural areas. Scenarios for on-farm emission reductions showed national reductions in nitrogen deposition to semi-natural areas of 0.14% (0.2 kt N-NHx) to 2.2% (3.15 kt N-NHx). Scenarios mitigating emissions from cattle and pig housing gave the highest reductions. The afforestation strategy showed national reductions of 6% (8.4 kt N-NHx) to 11% (15.7 kt N-NHx) for 25% and 50% afforestation scenarios respectively. Increased capture by the planted trees also showed an added benefit of reducing long range effects including a decrease in wet deposition up to 3.7 kt N-NHx (4.6%) and a decrease in export from the UK up to 8.3 kt N-NHx (6.8%). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Day One Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orr, John; Ibell, Timothy; Evernden, Mark; Darby, Antony

2015-01-01

Emissions reductions targets for the UK set out in the Climate Change Act for the period to 2050 will only be achieved with significant changes to the built environment, which is currently estimated to account for 50% of the UK's carbon emissions. The socio-technological nature of Civil Engineering means that this field is uniquely placed to lead…

40 CFR Table 4 of Subpart Bbbbbbb... - Continuous Compliance Demonstration Methods With the Emission Reduction and PM Concentration...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... chemical preparations operation was in target HAP service. The control device monitoring data are averaged... Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Area Sources: Chemical Preparations Industry Other... particulate matter control device being used. c. A CPMS, and maintaining records of data verifying that the...

Reducing GHG emissions in the United States' transportation sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Das, Sujit; Andress, David A; Nguyen, Tien

Reducing GHG emissions in the U.S. transportation sector requires both the use of highly efficient propulsion systems and low carbon fuels. This study compares reduction potentials that might be achieved in 2060 for several advanced options including biofuels, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), assuming that technical and cost reduction targets are met and necessary fueling infrastructures are built. The study quantifies the extent of the reductions that can be achieved through increasing engine efficiency and transitioning to low-carbon fuels separately. Decarbonizing the fuels is essential for achieving large reductions inmore » GHG emissions, and the study quantifies the reductions that can be achieved over a range of fuel carbon intensities. Although renewables will play a vital role, some combination of coal gasification with carbon capture and sequestration, and/or nuclear energy will likely be needed to enable very large reductions in carbon intensities for hydrogen and electricity. Biomass supply constraints do not allow major carbon emission reductions from biofuels alone; the value of biomass is that it can be combined with other solutions to help achieve significant results. Compared with gasoline, natural gas provides 20% reduction in GHG emissions in internal combustion engines and up to 50% reduction when used as a feedstock for producing hydrogen or electricity, making it a good transition fuel for electric propulsion drive trains. The material in this paper can be useful information to many other countries, including developing countries because of a common factor: the difficulty of finding sustainable, low-carbon, cost-competitive substitutes for petroleum fuels.« less

Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change

PubMed Central

Zickfeld, Kirsten; Eby, Michael; Matthews, H. Damon; Weaver, Andrew J.

2009-01-01

Avoiding “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we present an inverse approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modeling, which allows us to estimate the probability that any given level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for “dangerous anthropogenic interference,” taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. We show that to stabilize global mean temperature increase at 2 °C above preindustrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2500 must not exceed a median estimate of 590 petagrams of carbon (PgC) (range, 200 to 950 PgC). If the 2 °C temperature stabilization target is to be met with a probability of at least 0.9, median total allowable CO2 emissions are 170 PgC (range, −220 to 700 PgC). Furthermore, these estimates of cumulative CO2 emissions, compatible with a specified temperature stabilization target, are independent of the path taken to stabilization. Our analysis therefore supports an international policy framework aimed at avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference formulated on the basis of total allowable greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:19706489

Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change.

PubMed

Zickfeld, Kirsten; Eby, Michael; Matthews, H Damon; Weaver, Andrew J

2009-09-22

Avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we present an inverse approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modeling, which allows us to estimate the probability that any given level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for "dangerous anthropogenic interference," taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. We show that to stabilize global mean temperature increase at 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2500 must not exceed a median estimate of 590 petagrams of carbon (PgC) (range, 200 to 950 PgC). If the 2 degrees C temperature stabilization target is to be met with a probability of at least 0.9, median total allowable CO2 emissions are 170 PgC (range, -220 to 700 PgC). Furthermore, these estimates of cumulative CO2 emissions, compatible with a specified temperature stabilization target, are independent of the path taken to stabilization. Our analysis therefore supports an international policy framework aimed at avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference formulated on the basis of total allowable greenhouse gas emissions.

HAVE U.S. SURFACE WATERS RESPONDED TO THE 1990 CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS?

EPA Science Inventory

Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) set target reductions for sulfur and nitrogen emissions from industrial sources as a means of reducing the acidity in deposition. One of the intended effects of the reductions was to decrease the acidity of low alkalinity wate...

Solar radiation management - on feasibility, side effects, and reaching the 2 degree target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korhonen, Hannele; Laakso, Anton; Ekholm, Tommi; Maalick, Zubair; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Kokkola, Harri; Romakkaniemi, Sami

2015-04-01

Solar radiation management (SRM), i.e. artificially increasing the reflectivity of the Earth, has been suggested as a fast-response, low-cost method to mitigate the impacts of potential rapid future climate change. We have used 1) large eddy simulations as well as an aerosol-climate model and an earth system model to investigate the feasibility and side effects of two types of SRM (marine cloud brightening and stratospheric sulfur injections) and 2) a sequential decision-making approach to determine strategies that combine emission reductions and an uncertain SRM option to limit global mean temperature increase to 2 degree. Regarding stratospheric injections, we find that a large explosive volcanic eruption taking place while SRM is in full force would result in overcooling of the planet, as expected; however, the radiative and climate effects would be clearly smaller than could be expected from the sum of the effects from volcanic eruption alone or SRM alone. In addition, the stratospheric sulphur load would recover from the eruption faster under SRM and natural conditions. If the eruption took place in the high latitudes, the resulting global forcing would be highly dependent on the season of the eruption. Furthermore, regarding marine cloud brightening we find that the spraying of sea water drops leads to cooling due to evaporation and leads to delay in particle dispersion. This delay enhances particle scavenging, and can influence the efficacy of cloud seeding. In terms of combining emission reductions and SRM to reach the 2° C warming target, we find that before the termination risk for SRM can be completely excluded, the acceptable greenhouse gas emission pathways remain only slightly higher than in scenarios without SRM. More generally, the uncertainties in SRM start time, acceptable magnitude and sustainability mean that it can be only a limited substitute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. If an additional constraint for CO2 concentration to mitigate ocean acidification is included, the CO2 emissions need to be rapidly reduced even if strong SRM will become available. However, in such scenarios the reductions for other greenhouse gases are not needed to reach the 2 degree target. Therefore, we conclude that the needs to simultaneously mitigate ocean acidification and temperature increase have important implications on how climatic targets and policies in the presence of uncertain SRM should be framed.

Flexible NO(x) abatement from power plants in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Sun, Lin; Webster, Mort; McGaughey, Gary; McDonald-Buller, Elena C; Thompson, Tammy; Prinn, Ronald; Ellerman, A Denny; Allen, David T

2012-05-15

Emission controls that provide incentives for maximizing reductions in emissions of ozone precursors on days when ozone concentrations are highest have the potential to be cost-effective ozone management strategies. Conventional prescriptive emissions controls or cap-and-trade programs consider all emissions similarly regardless of when they occur, despite the fact that contributions to ozone formation may vary. In contrast, a time-differentiated approach targets emissions reductions on forecasted high ozone days without imposition of additional costs on lower ozone days. This work examines simulations of such dynamic air quality management strategies for NO(x) emissions from electric generating units. Results from a model of day-specific NO(x) pricing applied to the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) portion of the northeastern U.S. electrical grid demonstrate (i) that sufficient flexibility in electricity generation is available to allow power production to be switched from high to low NO(x) emitting facilities, (ii) that the emission price required to induce EGUs to change their strategies for power generation are competitive with other control costs, (iii) that dispatching strategies, which can change the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions, lead to ozone concentration reductions comparable to other control technologies, and (iv) that air quality forecasting is sufficiently accurate to allow EGUs to adapt their power generation strategies.

Win–Win strategies to promote air pollutant control policies and non-fossil energy target regulation in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lining; Patel, Pralit L.; Yu, Sha

The rapid growth of energy consumption in China has led to increased emissions of air pollutants. As a response, in its 12th Five Year Plan the Chinese government proposed mitigation targets for SO2 and NOx emissions. Herein we have investigated mitigation measures taken in different sectors and their corresponding impacts on the energy system. Additionally, as non-fossil energy development has gained traction in addressing energy and environmental challenges in China, we further investigated the impact of non-fossil energy development on air pollutant emissions, and then explored interactions and co-benefits between these two types of policies. An extended Global Change Assessmentmore » Model (GCAM) was used in this study, which includes an additional air pollutant emissions control module coupling multiple end-of-pipe (EOP) control technologies with energy technologies, as well as more detailed end-use sectors in China. We find that implementing EOP control technologies would reduce air pollution in the near future, but with little room left to implement these EOP technologies, other cleaner and more efficient technologies are also effective. These technologies would reduce final energy consumption, increase electricity’s share in final energy, and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy and electricity consumption. Increasing non-fossil energy usage at China’s proposed adoption rate would in turn also reduce SO2 and NOx emissions, however, the reductions from this policy alone still lag behind the targeted requirements of air pollutant reduction. Fortunately, a combination of air pollutant controls and non-fossil energy development could synergistically help realize the respective individual targets, and would result in lower costs than would addressing these issues separately.« less

Can carbon emissions from tropical deforestation drop by 50% in 5 years?

PubMed

Zarin, Daniel J; Harris, Nancy L; Baccini, Alessandro; Aksenov, Dmitry; Hansen, Matthew C; Azevedo-Ramos, Claudia; Azevedo, Tasso; Margono, Belinda A; Alencar, Ane C; Gabris, Chris; Allegretti, Adrienne; Potapov, Peter; Farina, Mary; Walker, Wayne S; Shevade, Varada S; Loboda, Tatiana V; Turubanova, Svetlana; Tyukavina, Alexandra

2016-04-01

Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to the agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is consistent with a target set last year by the governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' organizations and non-governmental organizations that signed the New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF). We assemble and refine a robust dataset to establish a 2001-2013 benchmark for average annual carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation at 2.270 Gt CO2 yr(-1). Brazil did not sign the NYDF, yet from 2001 to 2013, Brazil ranks first for both carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation and reductions in those emissions - its share of the total declined from a peak of 69% in 2003 to a low of 20% in 2012. Indonesia, an NYDF signatory, is the second highest emitter, peaking in 2012 at 0.362 Gt CO2 yr(-1) before declining to 0.205 Gt CO2 yr(-1) in 2013. The other 14 NYDF tropical country signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.317 Gt CO2 yr(-1) , while the other 86 tropical country non-signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.688 Gt CO2 yr(-1). We outline two scenarios for achieving the 50% emission reduction target by 2020, both emphasizing the critical role of Brazil and the need to reverse the trends of increasing carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation in many other tropical countries that, from 2001 to 2013, have largely offset Brazil's reductions. Achieving the target will therefore be challenging, even though it is in the self-interest of the international community. Conserving rather than cutting down tropical forests requires shifting economic development away from a dependence on natural resource depletion toward recognition of the dependence of human societies on the natural capital that tropical forests represent and the goods and services they provide. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, Casie L.; Dahowski, Robert T.; McJeon, Haewon C.

This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that,more » as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.« less

What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia

2016-07-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net -5 Gt CO2/yr, compared with -1.5 Gt CO2/yr in RCP2.6). More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.

What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia

Here, the 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net –5 Gt CO 2/yr, compared with –1.5 Gt CO 2/yr in RCP2.6).more » More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.« less

What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?

DOE PAGES

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia

2016-06-27

Here, the 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net –5 Gt CO 2/yr, compared with –1.5 Gt CO 2/yr in RCP2.6).more » More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.« less

Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van den Berg, Maarten; Bijl, David L.; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Daioglou, Vassilis; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hof, Andries F.; van Sluisveld, Mariësse A. E.

2018-05-01

Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, mostly accomplished through large-scale application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. However, CDR strategies face several difficulties such as reliance on underground CO2 storage and competition for land with food production and biodiversity protection. The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, we explore the impact of alternative pathways that include lifestyle change, additional reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and more rapid electrification of energy demand based on renewable energy. Although these alternatives also face specific difficulties, they are found to significantly reduce the need for CDR, but not fully eliminate it. The alternatives offer a means to diversify transition pathways to meet the Paris Agreement targets, while simultaneously benefiting other sustainability goals.

A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

DOE PAGES

Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael; ...

2016-10-21

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs),more » demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.« less

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Effects of Grid-Scale Electricity Storage in a Decarbonizing Power System

DOE PAGES

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2018-01-03

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter 'storage') could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO 2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO 2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO 2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. Wemore » conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO 2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO 2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO 2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO 2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions.« less

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Effects of Grid-Scale Electricity Storage in a Decarbonizing Power System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter 'storage') could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO 2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO 2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO 2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. Wemore » conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO 2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO 2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO 2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO 2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions.« less

Carbon dioxide emissions effects of grid-scale electricity storage in a decarbonizing power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2018-01-01

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter ‘storage’) could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. We conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO2 emissions.

Global climate targets and future consumption level: an evaluation of the required GHG intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girod, Bastien; van Vuuren, Detlef Peter; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2013-03-01

Discussion and analysis on international climate policy often focuses on the rather abstract level of total national and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At some point, however, emission reductions need to be translated to consumption level. In this article, we evaluate the implications of the strictest IPCC representative concentration pathway for key consumption categories (food, travel, shelter, goods, services). We use IPAT style identities to account for possible growth in global consumption levels and indicate the required change in GHG emission intensity for each category (i.e. GHG emission per calorie, person kilometer, square meter, kilogram, US dollar). The proposed concept provides guidance for product developers, consumers and policymakers. To reach the 2 °C climate target (2.1 tCO2-eq. per capita in 2050), the GHG emission intensity of consumption has to be reduced by a factor of 5 in 2050. The climate targets on consumption level allow discussion of the feasibility of this climate target at product and consumption level. In most consumption categories products in line with this climate target are available. For animal food and air travel, reaching the GHG intensity targets with product modifications alone will be challenging and therefore structural changes in consumption patterns might be needed. The concept opens up possibilities for further research on potential solutions on the consumption and product level to global climate mitigation.

Collision Repair Campaign

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Collision Repair Campaign targets meaningful risk reduction in the Collision Repair source category to reduce air toxic emissions in their communities. The Campaign also helps shops to work towards early compliance with the Auto Body Rule.

Emissions reduction policies and recent trends in Southern California's ambient air quality.

PubMed

Lurmann, Fred; Avol, Ed; Gilliland, Frank

2015-03-01

To assess accountability and effectiveness of air regulatory policies, we reviewed more than 20 years of monitoring data, emissions estimates, and regulatory policies across several southern California communities participating in a long-term study of children's health. Between 1994 and 2011, air quality improved for NO2 and PM2.5 in virtually all the monitored communities. Average NO2 declined 28% to 53%, and PM2.5 decreased 13% to 54%. Year-to-year PM2.5 variability at lower pollution sites was large compared to changes in long-term trends. PM10 and O3 decreases were largest in communities that were initially among the most polluted. Trends in annual average NO2, PM2.5, and PM10 concentrations in higher pollution communities were generally consistent with NOx, ROG, SOx, PM2.5, and PM10 emissions decreases. Reductions observed at one of the higher PM2.5 sites, Mira Loma, were generally within the range expected from reductions observed in ROG, NOx, SOx, and PM2.5 emissions. Despite a 38% increase in regional motor vehicle activity, vigorous economic growth, and a 30% population increase, total estimated emissions of NOx, ROG, SOx, PM2.5, and PM10 decreased by 54%, 65%, 40%, 21%, and 15%, respectively, during the 20-year time period. Emission control strategies in California have achieved dramatic reductions in ambient NO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10. However, additional reductions will still be needed to achieve current health-based clean air standards. For many cities facing the challenge of reducing air pollution to meet health-based standards, the emission control policies and pollution reduction programs adopted in southern California should serve as an example of the potential success of aggressive, comprehensive, and integrated approaches. Policies targeting on-road mobile emissions were the single most important element for observed improvements in the Los Angeles region. However, overall program success was the result of a much broader approach designed to achieve emission reductions across all major pollutants and emissions categories.

Joint carbon footprint assessment and data envelopment analysis for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture production.

PubMed

Rebolledo-Leiva, Ricardo; Angulo-Meza, Lidia; Iriarte, Alfredo; González-Araya, Marcela C

2017-09-01

Operations management tools are critical in the process of evaluating and implementing action towards a low carbon production. Currently, a sustainable production implies both an efficient resource use and the obligation to meet targets for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The carbon footprint (CF) tool allows estimating the overall amount of GHG emissions associated with a product or activity throughout its life cycle. In this paper, we propose a four-step method for a joint use of CF assessment and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Following the eco-efficiency definition, which is the delivery of goods using fewer resources and with decreasing environmental impact, we use an output oriented DEA model to maximize production and reduce CF, taking into account simultaneously the economic and ecological perspectives. In another step, we stablish targets for the contributing CF factors in order to achieve CF reduction. The proposed method was applied to assess the eco-efficiency of five organic blueberry orchards throughout three growing seasons. The results show that this method is a practical tool for determining eco-efficiency and reducing GHG emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Geospatial Modeling of the Building Stock to Project Urban Energy Demand.

PubMed

Breunig, Hanna Marie; Huntington, Tyler; Jin, Ling; Robinson, Alastair; Scown, Corinne Donahue

2018-06-26

In the United States, buildings account for more than 40 percent of total energy consumption, and the evolution of the urban form will impact the effectiveness of strategies to reduce energy use and mitigate emissions. This paper presents a broadly applicable approach for modeling future commercial, residential, and industrial floorspace, thermal consumption (heating and cooling), and associated GHG emissions at the tax assessor land parcel level. The approach accounts for changing building standards and retrofitting, climate change, and trends in housing and industry. We demonstrate the automated workflow for California, and project building stock, thermal energy consumption, and associated GHG emissions out to 2050. Our results suggest that if buildings in California have long lifespans, and minimal energy efficiency improvements compared to building codes reflective of 2008, then the state will face a 20% or higher increase in thermal energy consumption by 2050. Baseline annual GHG emissions associated with thermal energy consumption in the modeled building stock in 2016 is 34% below 1990 levels (110 Mt CO2eq/y).While the 2020 targets for the reduction of GHG emissions set by the California Senate Bill 350 have already been met, none of our scenarios achieve >80% reduction from 1990 levels by 2050, despite assuming an 86% reduction in electricity carbon intensity in our "Low Carbon" scenario. The results highlight the challenge California faces in meeting its new energy efficiency targets unless the State's building stock undergoes timely and strategic turnover, paired with deep retrofitting of existing buildings and natural gas equipment.

Decarbonizing the international shipping industry: Solutions and policy recommendations.

PubMed

Wan, Zheng; El Makhloufi, Abdel; Chen, Yang; Tang, Jiayuan

2018-01-01

Ship-source greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could increase by up to 250% by 2050 from their 2012 levels, owing to increasing global freight volumes. Binding international legal agreements to regulate GHGs, however, are lacking as technical solutions remain expensive, and crucial industrial support is absent. In 2003, the International Maritime Organization adopted Resolution A.963 (23) to regulate shipping CO 2 emissions via technical, operational, and market-based routes. However, progress has been slow and uncertain; there is no concrete emission reduction target or definitive action plan. Yet, a full-fledged roadmap may not even emerge until 2023. In this policy analysis, we revisit the progress of technical, operational, and market-based routes and the associated controversies. We argue that 1) a performance-based index, though good-intentioned, has loopholes affecting meaningful CO 2 emission reductions driven by technical advancements; 2) using slow steaming to cut energy consumption stands out among all operational solutions thanks to its immediate and obvious results, but with the already slow speed in practice, this single source has limited emission reduction potential; 3) without a technology-savvy shipping industry, a market-based approach is essentially needed to address the environmental impact. To give shipping a 50:50 chance for contributing fairly and proportionately to keep global warming below 2°C, deep emission reductions should occur soon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid method for provincial scale energy-related carbon emission allocation in China.

PubMed

Bai, Hongtao; Zhang, Yingxuan; Wang, Huizhi; Huang, Yanying; Xu, He

2014-01-01

Achievement of carbon emission reduction targets proposed by national governments relies on provincial/state allocations. In this study, a hybrid method for provincial energy-related carbon emissions allocation in China was developed to provide a good balance between production- and consumption-based approaches. In this method, provincial energy-related carbon emissions are decomposed into direct emissions of local activities other than thermal power generation and indirect emissions as a result of electricity consumption. Based on the carbon reduction efficiency principle, the responsibility for embodied emissions of provincial product transactions is assigned entirely to the production area. The responsibility for carbon generation during the production of thermal power is borne by the electricity consumption area, which ensures that different regions with resource endowments have rational development space. Empirical studies were conducted to examine the hybrid method and three indices, per capita GDP, resource endowment index and the proportion of energy-intensive industries, were screened to preliminarily interpret the differences among China's regional carbon emissions. Uncertainty analysis and a discussion of this method are also provided herein.

The Production, Value, and Reduction Responsibility of Carbon Emissions through Electricity Consumption of Manufacturing Industries in South Korea and Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitikun, Medhawin

This dissertation provides a new method of measuring efforts by manufacturing industries to reduce their emissions by curtailing electricity consumption. Employing comprehensive firm-level data from the National Manufacture Annual Surveys of South Korea and Thailand, I construct the measure from estimates of revenue functions by industry. The data consists of firms from more than 20 industries in each year from 1982 to 2005 for Korea and from 2001 to 2008 for Thailand. With a total of more than two million observations, I estimate revenue functions for each industry and year. Here, I use three inputs: number of employees(L), fixed asset stock(K), and electricity consumption(E) and two types of functional forms to represent each industry's revenue function. Second, under market competitive condition, I find that profit maximizing firms deviated their level of electricity usage in production from the profit-maximizing level during the time period for both countries, and I develop a theoretical framework to explain this behavior. Then, I tested the theory using my empirical models. Results support the notion of a hidden environmental value expressed by firms in the form of voluntary deviations from profit-maximizing levels of input demand. The measure used is the gap between the marginal revenue product of electricity and its price. This gap should increase with income, consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve literature. My current model provides considerable support for this proposition. Estimates indicate, in most industries, a negative relationship between per-capita income and emissions. In the final section of the dissertation, I consider the equitable distribution of emissions reduction burden under an international agreement such as the reduction effort, Kyoto Protocol. Both developed and developing countries have to cut their emissions to a specific reduction percentage target. Domestically, I present two extreme scenarios. In the first scenario, manufacturing industries take full responsibility for emissions reductions by curtailing their use of energy without any subsidies from the government. Revenue function estimates provide measures of the differential costs imposed on different industries by emissions reductions. In the second scenario, emissions reductions are achieved by changing the mix of electricity generation technologies used by the power generation sector within the country. For the international case, I focus on the fairness of emission reduction responsibility among countries. To be fair to countries at different levels of development and with different rate of carbon emissions, I propose a new method to adjust the timing and rates of emission reductions based on a lifetime cumulative emission per capita.

Efficiency of an emissions payment system for nitrogen in sewage treatment plants - a case study.

PubMed

Malmaeus, J Mikael; Ek, Mats; Åmand, Linda; Roth, Susanna; Baresel, Christian; Olshammar, Mikael

2015-05-01

An emissions payment system for nitrogen in Swedish sewage treatment plants (STPs) was evaluated using a semi-empirical approach. The system was based on a tariff levied on each unit of nitrogen emitted by STPs, and profitable measures to reduce nitrogen emissions were identified for twenty municipal STPs. This was done through direct involvement with the plant personnel and the results were scaled up to cover all treatment plants larger than 2000 person equivalents in the Swedish tributary areas of the Kattegat and the Baltic Proper. The sum of costs and nitrogen reductions were compared with an assumed command-and-control regulation requiring all STPs to obtain 80% total nitrogen reduction in their effluents. Costs for the latter case were estimated using a database containing standard estimates for reduction costs by six specified measures. For both cases a total reduction target of 3000 tonnes of nitrogen was set. We did not find that the emissions payment system was more efficient in terms of total reduction costs, although some practical and administrative advantages could be identified. Our results emphasize the need to evaluate the performance of policy instruments on a case-by-case basis since the theoretical efficiency is not always reflected in practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 pathways for achieving peak carbon targets in Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, M.; Bi, J.; Huang, Y.; Kinney, P. L.

2016-12-01

Jiangsu, which has three national low-carbon pilot cities, is set to be a model province in China for achieving peak carbon targets before 2030. However, according to local planning of responding to climate change, carbon emissions are projected to keep going up before 2020 even the strictest measures are implemented. In other words, innovative measures must be in action after 2020. This work aimed at assessing the air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 measures to help remove barriers of policy implementation through tying it to local incentives for air quality improvement. To achieve the aim, we select 2010 as baseline year and develop Bussiness As Usual (BAU) and Traditional Carbon Reduction (TCR) scenarios before 2020. Under BAU, only existing climate and air pollution control policies are considered; under TCR, potential climate policies in local planning and existing air pollution control policies are considered. After 2020, integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and large-scale substitution of renewable energy seem to be two promising pathways for achieving peak carbon targets. Therefore, two additional scenarios (TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE) are set after 2020. Based on the projections of future energy balances and industrial productions, we estimate the pollutant emissions and simulate PM2.5 and ozone concentrations by 2017, 2020, 2030 and 2050 using CMAQ. Then using health impact assessment approach, the premature deaths are estimated and monetized. Results show that the carbon peak in Jiangsu will be achieved before 2030 only under TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE scenarios. Under three policy scenarios, Jiangsu's carbon emission control targets would have substantial effects on primary air pollutant emissions far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet the PM2.5 concentration targets in 2017. Compared with IGCC with CCS, large-scale substitutions of renewable energy bring comparable pollutant emission reductions but more health benefits because it reduces more emissions from traffic sources which are more harmful to health. However, large-scale substitution of renewable energy posed challenges on energy supply capacity, which need to be seriously considered in future policy decision.

Current status and future trends of SO2 and NOx pollution during the 12th FYP period in Guiyang city of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Hezhong; Qiu, Peipei; Cheng, Ke; Gao, Jiajia; Lu, Long; Liu, Kaiyun; Liu, Xingang

2013-04-01

In order to investigate the future trends of SO2 and NOx pollution in Guiyang city of China, the MM5/CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system is applied to assess the effects of air pollution improvement that would result from reduction targets for SO2 and NOx emissions during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015). Three scenarios are established for the objective year 2015 based on the reference emissions in base year 2010. Scenario analysis and modeling results show that emissions are projected to increase by 26.5% for SO2 and 138.0% for NOx in 2015 Business-As-Usual (BAU) relative to base year 2010, respectively, which will lead to a substantial worsening tendency of SO2 and NOx pollution. In comparison, both the 2015 Policy Reduction (PR) and 2015 Intensive Policy Reduction (IPR) scenarios would contribute to improve the urban air quality. Under 2015 PR scenario, the maximum annual average concentration of SO2 and NOx will reduce by 54.9% and 31.7%, respectively, relative to the year 2010, with only 2.1% of all individual gridded receptors exceed the national air quality standard limits; while the maximum annual average concentrations of SO2 and NOx can reduce further under 2015 IPR scenario and comply well with standards limits. In view of the technical feasibility and cost-effectiveness, the emission reduction targets set in the 2015 PR scenario are regarded as more reasonable in order to further improve the air quality in Guiyang during the 12th FYP period and a series of comprehensive countermeasures should be effectively implemented.

Public perceptions and information gaps in solar energy in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Varun; Beck, Ariane L.

2015-07-01

Studying the behavioral aspects of the individual decision-making process is important in identifying and addressing barriers in the adoption of residential solar photovoltaic (PV). However, there is little systematic research focusing on these aspects of residential PV in Texas, an important, large, populous state, with a range of challenges in the electricity sector including increasing demand, shrinking reserve margins, constrained water supply, and challenging emissions reduction targets under proposed federal regulations. This paper aims to address this gap through an empirical investigation of a new survey-based dataset collected in Texas on solar energy perceptions and behavior. The results of this analysis offer insights into the perceptions and motivations influencing intentions and behavior toward solar energy in a relatively untapped market and help identify information gaps that could be targeted to alleviate key barriers to adopting solar, thereby enabling significant emissions reductions in the residential sector in Texas.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

2016-08-01

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’smore » and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are represented, in addition to the extensive data compiled from recent studies on bottom-up representation of efficiency measures for the sector. We also defined various mitigation scenarios including long-term production trends to project country-specific production, energy use, trading, carbon emissions, and costs of mitigation. Such analyses can provide useful information to assist policy-makers when considering and shaping future emissions mitigation strategies and policies. The technical objective is to analyze the costs of production and CO 2 emission reduction in the U.S, China, and India’s iron and steel sectors under different emission reduction scenarios, using the ISEEM-IS as a cost optimization model. The scenarios included in this project correspond to various CO 2 emission reduction targets for the iron and steel sector under different strategies such as simple CO 2 emission caps (e.g., specific reduction goals), emission reduction via commodity trading, and emission reduction via carbon trading.« less

Air Quality Co-Benefits of a Carbon Policy: Regional Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. M.; Rausch, S.; Saari, R.; Selin, N. E.

2013-12-01

We use an integrated modeling framework to assess the air quality influence of climate change policies in the Northeast U.S. states for air pollution, and their relative health and economic benefits. We analyze three carbon policy scenarios, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast United States: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy, a Clean Energy Scenario (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only, and a Transportation Scenario (TRN) reducing emissions from the transportation sector only. Regional CES policy and a regional TRN policy will cost about 10 times and 50 times more than a CAT policy, respectively. Regional CAT policy will lead to a 6% greater reduction in carbon emissions nationally in the year 2030 compared to an electric or transportation sector cap with the same regional targets. This is because, unlike a total economy cap, targeted policy options will likely cause increases in carbon emissions outside of the region covered (called carbon leakage). The human health benefits of the CAT, CES and TRN policies are 530%, 118%, and 10% of the costs of each policy respectively, meaning that the CAT and CES policies will likely fully pay for themselves in the NE U.S. We estimate that the value of human health co-benefits associated with reductions of ground level ozone and particulate matter of the CES scenario is twice that of the CAT and TRN scenarios. Economic welfare costs for each of three regionally applied carbon emissions reduction scenario are shown in blue. The calculated dollar amount of the human health benefits point estimate is shown in red with the 95% confidence interval, associated with human health response only, shown using the green line. Values are in billions of year 2006 US dollars.

Assessing the co-benefits of greenhouse gas reduction: health benefits of particulate matter related inspection and maintenance programs in Bangkok, Thailand.

PubMed

Li, Ying; Crawford-Brown, Douglas J

2011-04-15

Since the 1990s, the capital city of Thailand, Bangkok has been suffering from severe ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution mainly attributable to its wide use of diesel-fueled vehicles and motorcycles with poor emission performance. While the Thai government strives to reduce emissions from transportation through enforcing policy measures, the link between specific control policies and associated health impacts is inadequately studied. This link is especially important in exploring the co-benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, which often brings reduction in other pollutants such as PM. This paper quantifies the health benefits potentially achieved by the new PM-related I/M programs targeting all diesel vehicles and motorcycles in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA). The benefits are estimated by using a framework that integrates policy scenario development, exposure assessment, exposure-response assessment and economic valuation. The results indicate that the total health damage due to the year 2000 PM emissions from vehicles in the BMA was equivalent to 2.4% of Thailand's GDP. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total vehicular PM emissions in the BMA will increase considerably over time due to the rapid growth in vehicle population, even if the fleet average emission rates are projected to decrease over time as the result of participation of Thailand in post-Copenhagen climate change strategies. By 2015, the total health damage is estimated to increase by 2.5 times relative to the year 2000. However, control policies targeting PM emissions from automobiles, such as the PM-oriented I/M programs, could yield substantial health benefits relative to the BAU scenario, and serve as co-benefits of greenhouse gas control strategies. Despite uncertainty associated with the key assumptions used to estimate benefits, we find that with a high level confidence, the I/M programs will produce health benefits whose economic impacts considerably outweigh the expenditures on policy implementation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

2017-04-01

Large differences in climate outcomes are projected by the end of this century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase or are reduced sufficiently to limit total warming to below 2 °C (ref. ). However, it is generally thought that benefits of mitigation are hidden by internal climate variability until later in the century. Here we show that if the likelihood of extremely hot seasons is considered, the benefits of mitigation emerge more quickly than previously thought. It takes less than 20 years of emissions reductions in many regions for the likelihood of extreme seasonal warmth to reduce by more than half following initiation of mitigation. Additionally we show that the latest possible date at which the probability of extreme seasonal temperatures will be halved through emissions reductions consistent with the 2 °C target is in the 2040s. Exposure to climate risk is therefore reduced markedly and rapidly with substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrating that the early mitigation needed to limit eventual warming below potentially dangerous levels benefits societies in the nearer term not just in the longer-term future.

Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminum cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Daniel B.; Liu, Gang; Bangs, Colton

Climate change mitigation in the materials sector faces a twin challenge: satisfying rapidly rising global demand for materials while significantly curbing greenhouse-gas emissions. Process efficiency improvement and recycling can contribute to reducing emissions per material output; however, long-term material demand and scrap availability for recycling depend fundamentally on the dynamics of societies' stocks of products in use, an issue that has been largely neglected in climate science. Here, we show that aluminium in-use stock patterns set essential boundary conditions for future emission pathways, which has significant implications for mitigation priority setting. If developing countries follow industrialized countries in their aluminium stock patterns, a 50% emission reduction by 2050 below 2000 levels cannot be reached even under very optimistic recycling and technology assumptions. The target can be reached only if future global per-capita aluminium stocks saturate at a level much lower than that in present major industrialized countries. As long as global in-use stocks are growing rapidly, radical new technologies in primary production (for example, inert anode and carbon capture and storage) have the greatest impact in emission reduction; however, their window of opportunity is closing once the stocks begin to saturate and the largest reduction potential shifts to post-consumer scrap recycling.

Spatial analysis on China's regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions: emission pattern and regional disparity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Liang; Liang, Hanwei

2014-08-01

China has suffered from serious air pollution and CO2 emission. Challenges of emission reduction policy not only come from technology advancement, but also generate from the fact that, China has pronounced disparity between regions, in geographical and socioeconomic. How to deal with regional disparity is important to achieve the reduction target effectively and efficiently. This research conducts a spatial analysis on the emission patterns of three air pollutants named SO2, NOx and PM2.5, and CO2, in China's 30 provinces, applied with spatial auto-correlation and multi regression modeling. We further analyze the regional disparity and inequity issues with the approach of Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. Results highlight that: there is evident cluster effect for the regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions. While emission amount increases from western regions to eastern regions, the emission per GDP is in inverse trend. The Lorenz curve shows an even larger unequal distribution of GDP/emissions than GDP/capita in 30 regions. Certain middle and western regions suffers from a higher emission with lower GDP, which reveal the critical issue of emission leakage. Future policy making to address such regional disparity is critical so as to promote the emission control policy under the “equity and efficiency” principle.

Development of air conditioning technologies to reduce CO2 emissions in the commercial sector

PubMed Central

Yoshida, Yukiko

2006-01-01

Background Architectural methods that take into account global environmental conservation generally concentrate on mitigating the heat load of buildings. Here, we evaluate the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that can be achieved by improving heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) technologies. Results The Climate Change Research Hall (CCRH) of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) is used as a case study. CCRH was built in line with the "Green Government Buildings" program of the Government Buildings Department at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport in Japan. We have assessed the technology used in this building, and found that there is a possibility to reduce energy consumption in the HVAC system by 30%. Conclusion Saving energy reduces CO2 emissions in the commercial sector, although emission factors depend on the country or region. Consequently, energy savings potential may serve as a criterion in selecting HVAC technologies with respect to emission reduction targets. PMID:17062161

Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Frank, Stefan; Beach, Robert; Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Mosnier, Aline; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Creason, Jared; Ragnauth, Shaun; Obersteiner, Michael

2018-03-13

Agriculture is the single largest source of anthropogenic non-carbon dioxide (non-CO 2 ) emissions. Reaching the climate target of the Paris Agreement will require significant emission reductions across sectors by 2030 and continued efforts thereafter. Here we show that the economic potential of non-CO 2 emissions reductions from agriculture is up to four times as high as previously estimated. In fact, we find that agriculture could achieve already at a carbon price of 25 $/tCO 2 eq non-CO 2 reductions of around 1 GtCO 2 eq/year by 2030 mainly through the adoption of technical and structural mitigation options. At 100 $/tCO 2 eq agriculture could even provide non-CO 2 reductions of 2.6 GtCO 2 eq/year in 2050 including demand side efforts. Immediate action to favor the widespread adoption of technical options in developed countries together with productivity increases through structural changes in developing countries is needed to move agriculture on track with a 2 °C climate stabilization pathway.

Reducing CO2 Emissions through Lightweight Design and Manufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carruth, Mark A.; Allwood, Julian M.; Milford, Rachel L.

2011-05-01

To meet targeted 50% reductions in industrial CO2 emissions by 2050, demand for steel and aluminium must be cut. Many steel and aluminium products include redundant material, and the manufacturing routes to produce them use more material than is necessary. Lightweight design and optimized manufacturing processes offer a means of demand reduction, whilst creating products to perform the same service as existing ones. This paper examines two strategies for demand reduction: lightweight product design; and minimizing yield losses through the product supply chain. Possible mass savings are estimated for specific case-studies on metal-intensive products, such as I-beams and food cans. These estimates are then extrapolated to other sectors to produce a global estimate for possible demand reductions. Results show that lightweight product design may offer potential mass savings of up to 30% for some products, whilst yield in the production of others could be improved by over 20%. If these two strategies could be combined for all products, global demand for steel and aluminium would be reduced by nearly 50%. The impact of demand reduction on CO2 emissions is presented, and barriers to the adoption of new, lightweight technologies are discussed.

The advantage of calculating emission reduction with local emission factor in South Sumatera region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchari, Erika

2017-11-01

Green House Gases (GHG) which have different Global Warming Potential, usually expressed in CO2 equivalent. German has succeeded in emission reduction of CO2 in year 1990s, while Japan since 2001 increased load factor of public transports. Indonesia National Medium Term Development Plan, 2015-2019, has set up the target of minimum 26% and maximum 41% National Emission Reduction in 2019. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), defined three types of accuracy in counting emission of GHG, as tier 1, tier 2, and tier 3. In tier 1, calculation is based on fuel used and average emission (default), which is obtained from statistical data. While in tier 2, calculation is based fuel used and local emission factors. Tier 3 is more accurate from those in tier 1 and 2, and the calculation is based on fuel used from modelling method or from direct measurement. This paper is aimed to evaluate the calculation with tier 2 and tier 3 in South Sumatera region. In 2012, Regional Action Plan for Greenhouse Gases of South Sumatera for 2020 is about 6,569,000 ton per year and with tier 3 is about without mitigation and 6,229,858.468 ton per year. It was found that the calculation in tier 3 is more accurate in terms of fuel used of variation vehicles so that the actions of mitigation can be planned more realistically.

Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends.

PubMed

Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

2008-11-13

The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.

Taxing pollution instead of labor: Is it a prudent CO[sub 2] reduction policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanghi, A.K.; Joseph, A.L.

Any serious attempt to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will require reductions from all sectors of the economy. The authors believe that top-down approaches to a carbon tax will generate heavy excess revenues, thus causing administrative and equity problems. They suggest that a better approach, which was espoused by Vice President Gore, could come through a targeted trust fund approach.

Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta

PubMed Central

Duan, Jun; Lynch, Rachel

2016-01-01

This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%. PMID:27902712

Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta.

PubMed

van Kooten, G Cornelis; Duan, Jun; Lynch, Rachel

2016-01-01

This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%.

Achieving Realistic Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions in U.S. Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackhurst, Michael F.

2011-12-01

In recognizing that energy markets and greenhouse gas emissions are significantly influences by local factors, this research examines opportunities for achieving realistic energy greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. cities through provisions of more sustainable infrastructure. Greenhouse gas reduction opportunities are examined through the lens of a public program administrator charged with reducing emissions given realistic financial constraints and authority over emissions reductions and energy use. Opportunities are evaluated with respect to traditional public policy metrics, such as benefit-cost analysis, net benefit analysis, and cost-effectiveness. Section 2 summarizes current practices used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions from communities. I identify improved and alternative emissions inventory techniques such as disaggregating the sectors reported, reporting inventory uncertainty, and aligning inventories with local organizations that could facilitate emissions mitigation. The potential advantages and challenges of supplementing inventories with comparative benchmarks are also discussed. Finally, I highlight the need to integrate growth (population and economic) and business as usual implications (such as changes to electricity supply grids) into climate action planning. I demonstrate how these techniques could improve decision making when planning reductions, help communities set meaningful emission reduction targets, and facilitate CAP implementation and progress monitoring. Section 3 evaluates the costs and benefits of building energy efficiency are estimated as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Pittsburgh, PA and Austin, TX. Two policy objectives were evaluated: maximize GHG reductions given initial budget constraints or maximize social savings given target GHG reductions. This approach explicitly evaluates the trade-offs between three primary and often conflicting program design parameters: initial capital constraints, social savings, and GHG reductions. Results suggest uncertainty in local stocks, demands, and efficiency significantly impacts anticipated outcomes. Annual greenhouse gas reductions of 1 ton CO2 eq/capita/yr in Pittsburgh could cost near nothing or over $20 per capita annually. Capital-constrained policies generate slightly less social savings (a present value of a few hundred dollars per capita) than policies that maximize social savings. However, sectors, technologies, and end uses targeted for intervention vary depending on policy objectives and constraints. The optimal efficiency investment strategy for some end uses varies significantly (in excess of 100%) between Pittsburgh and Austin, suggesting that resources and guidance conducted at the national scale may mislead state and local decision-makers. Section 3 then evaluates the impact of rebound effects on modeled efficiency program outcomes. Differential rebound effects across end-uses can change the optimal program design strategy, i.e., the end-uses and technologies targeted for intervention. The rebound effect results suggest that rebound should be integral to effective efficiency program design. Section 4 evaluates the life cycle assessment costs and benefits of the widespread retrofit of green roofs in a typical urban mixed-use neighborhood. Shadow-cost analysis was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of green roofs' many benefits. Results suggest green roofs are currently not cost effective on a private cost basis, but multi-family and commercial building green roofs are competitive when social benefits are included. Multifamily and commercial green roofs are also competitive alternatives for reducing greenhouse gases and storm water run-off. However, green roofs are not competitive energy conservation techniques. GHG impacts are dominated by the material production and use phases. Energy impacts are dominated by the use phase, with urban heat island (UHI) impacts being an order of magnitude higher than direct building impacts. Results highlight the importance of clarifying sustainable infrastructure costs and benefits across many public and private organizations (e.g., private building owners, storm water agencies, efficiency stakeholders, and roofing contractors) to identify appropriate incentives and effective program design strategies. Section 5 synthesizes the work and provides guidance for local and state sustainability program administrators. Section 5 highlights the unrealized social benefits associated with sustainability and reflects upon the role of local and state governments in overcoming barriers to achieving more sustainable infrastructure. Section 5 encourages program administrators to consider their local markets for sustainability as influences by resource pricing, weather, infrastructure condition, jurisdiction, and other factors. The differences between sustainability programming and traditional municipal programming are highlighted, namely that sustainability programming often requires self-selection for participation and is subject to new sources of uncertain regarding user behavior, technology breadth and change, and the scope of costs and benefits. These characteristic issues of sustainable infrastructure opportunities provide new challenges to program administrators, requiring new paradigms and support resources. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Uncertainty in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from United States natural gas end-uses and its effects on policy.

PubMed

Venkatesh, Aranya; Jaramillo, Paulina; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2011-10-01

Increasing concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States have spurred interest in alternate low carbon fuel sources, such as natural gas. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods can be used to estimate potential emissions reductions through the use of such fuels. Some recent policies have used the results of LCAs to encourage the use of low carbon fuels to meet future energy demands in the U.S., without, however, acknowledging and addressing the uncertainty and variability prevalent in LCA. Natural gas is a particularly interesting fuel since it can be used to meet various energy demands, for example, as a transportation fuel or in power generation. Estimating the magnitudes and likelihoods of achieving emissions reductions from competing end-uses of natural gas using LCA offers one way to examine optimal strategies of natural gas resource allocation, given that its availability is likely to be limited in the future. In this study, the uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions of natural gas (domestic and imported) consumed in the U.S. was estimated using probabilistic modeling methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain sample distributions representing life cycle GHG emissions from the use of 1 MJ of domestic natural gas and imported LNG. Life cycle GHG emissions per energy unit of average natural gas consumed in the U.S were found to range between -8 and 9% of the mean value of 66 g CO(2)e/MJ. The probabilities of achieving emissions reductions by using natural gas for transportation and power generation, as a substitute for incumbent fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and coal were estimated. The use of natural gas for power generation instead of coal was found to have the highest and most likely emissions reductions (almost a 100% probability of achieving reductions of 60 g CO(2)e/MJ of natural gas used), while there is a 10-35% probability of the emissions from natural gas being higher than the incumbent if it were used as a transportation fuel. This likelihood of an increase in GHG emissions is indicative of the potential failure of a climate policy targeting reductions in GHG emissions.

Identifying potential exposure reduction priorities using regional rankings based on emissions of known and suspected carcinogens to outdoor air in Canada.

PubMed

Setton, Eleanor M; Veerman, Basil; Erickson, Anders; Deschenes, Steeve; Cheasley, Roz; Poplawski, Karla; Demers, Paul A; Keller, C Peter

2015-08-22

Emissions inventories aid in understanding the sources of hazardous air pollutants and how these vary regionally, supporting targeted reduction actions. Integrating information on the relative toxicity of emitted pollutants with respect to cancer in humans helps to further refine reduction actions or recommendations, but few national programs exist in North America that use emissions estimates in this way. The CAREX Canada Emissions Mapping Project provides key regional indicators of emissions (total annual and total annual toxic equivalent, circa 2011) of 21 selected known and suspected carcinogens. The indicators were calculated from industrial emissions reported to the National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) and estimates of emissions from transportation (airports, trains, and car and truck traffic) and residential heating (oil, gas and wood), in conjunction with human toxicity potential factors. We also include substance-specific annual emissions in toxic equivalent kilograms and annual emissions in kilograms, to allow for ranking substances within any region. For provinces and territories in Canada, the indicators suggest the top five substances contributing to the total toxic equivalent emissions in any region could be prioritized for further investigation. Residents of Quebec and New Brunswick may be more at risk of exposure to industrial emissions than those in other regions, suggesting that a more detailed study of exposure to industrial emissions in these provinces is warranted. Residential wood smoke may be an important emission to control, particularly in the north and eastern regions of Canada. Residential oil and gas heating, along with rail emissions contribute little to regional emissions and therefore may not be an immediate regional priority. The developed indicators support the identification of pollutants and sources for additional investigation when planning exposure reduction actions among Canadian provinces and territories, but have important limitations similar to other emissions inventory-based tools. Additional research is required to evaluate how the Emissions Mapping Project is used by different groups and organizations with respect to informing actions aimed at reducing Canadians' potential exposure to harmful air pollutants.

Global warming: is weight loss a solution?

PubMed

Gryka, A; Broom, J; Rolland, C

2012-03-01

The current climate change has been most likely caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions. We have looked at the major greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and estimated the reduction in the CO(2) emissions that would occur with the theoretical global weight loss. The calculations were based on our previous weight loss study, investigating the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet on body weight, body composition and resting metabolic rate of obese volunteers with type 2 diabetes. At 6 months, we observed decreases in weight, fat mass, fat free mass and CO(2) production. We estimated that a 10 kg weight loss of all obese and overweight people would result in a decrease of 49.560 Mt of CO(2) per year, which would equal to 0.2% of the CO(2) emitted globally in 2007. This reduction could help meet the CO(2) emission reduction targets and unquestionably would be of a great benefit to the global health.

Operation of the NETL Chemical Looping Reactor with Natural Gas and a Novel Copper-Iron Material

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Straub, Douglas; Bayham, Samuel; Weber, Justin

The proposed Clean Power Plan requires CO 2 emission reductions of 30% by 2030 and further reductions are targeted by 2050. The current strategies to achieve the 30% reduction targets do not include options for coal. However, the 2016 Annual Energy Outlook suggests that coal will continue to provide more electricity than renewable sources for many regions of the country in 2035. Therefore, cost effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel power plants are vital in order to achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets beyond 2030. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Combustion Program, themore » National Energy Technology Laboratory’s Research and Innovation Center (NETL R&IC) is investigating the feasibility of a novel combustion concept in which the GHG emissions can be significantly reduced. This concept involves burning fuel and air without mixing these two reactants. If this concept is technically feasible, then CO 2 emissions can be significantly reduced at a much lower cost than more conventional approaches. This indirect combustion concept has been called Chemical Looping Combustion (CLC) because an intermediate material (i.e., a metal-oxide) is continuously cycled to oxidize the fuel. This CLC concept is the focus of this research and will be described in more detail in the following sections. The solid material that is used to transport oxygen is called an oxygen carrier material. The cost, durability, and performance of this material is a key issue for the CLC technology. Researchers at the NETL R&IC have developed an oxygen carrier material that consists of copper, iron, and alumina. This material has been tested extensively using lab scale instruments such as thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), mechanical attrition (ASTM D5757), and small fluidized bed reactor tests. This report will describe the results from a realistic, circulating, proof-of-concept test that was completed using NETL’s 50kW th circulating Chemical Looping Reactor (CLR) test facility.« less

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally

2014-06-01

This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken heremore » is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.« less

A human development framework for CO2 reductions.

PubMed

Costa, Luís; Rybski, Diego; Kropp, Jürgen P

2011-01-01

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO(2) emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO(2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO(2) emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO(2) emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO(2) budgets limiting global warming to 2 °C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO(2) reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2 °C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO(2). These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2 °C. © 2011 Costa et al.

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

PubMed Central

Costa, Luís; Rybski, Diego; Kropp, Jürgen P.

2011-01-01

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world’s population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C. PMID:22216227

Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions.

PubMed

Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

2014-03-11

Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient--measured in "total abatement calorie cost"--than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.

Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

PubMed Central

Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

2014-01-01

Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D.

2018-02-01

Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Simulations using an ensemble of the JULES-IMOGEN intermediate complexity climate model (including climate response and process uncertainty) and a stabilization target of 2 °C, show that including the permafrost carbon pool in the model increases the land carbon emissions at stabilization by between 0.09 and 0.19 Gt C year-1 (10th to 90th percentile). These emissions are only slightly reduced to between 0.08 and 0.16 Gt C year-1 (10th to 90th percentile) when considering 1.5 °C stabilization targets. This suggests that uncertainties caused by the differences in stabilization target are small compared with those associated with model parameterisation uncertainty. Inertia means that permafrost carbon loss may continue for many years after anthropogenic emissions have stabilized. Simulations suggest that between 225 and 345 Gt C (10th to 90th percentile) are in thawed permafrost and may eventually be released to the atmosphere for stabilization target of 2 °C. This value is 60-100 Gt C less for a 1.5 °C target. The inclusion of permafrost carbon will add to the demands on negative emission technologies which are already present in most low emissions scenarios.

Dimension Reduction of Multivariable Optical Emission Spectrometer Datasets for Industrial Plasma Processes

PubMed Central

Yang, Jie; McArdle, Conor; Daniels, Stephen

2014-01-01

A new data dimension-reduction method, called Internal Information Redundancy Reduction (IIRR), is proposed for application to Optical Emission Spectroscopy (OES) datasets obtained from industrial plasma processes. For example in a semiconductor manufacturing environment, real-time spectral emission data is potentially very useful for inferring information about critical process parameters such as wafer etch rates, however, the relationship between the spectral sensor data gathered over the duration of an etching process step and the target process output parameters is complex. OES sensor data has high dimensionality (fine wavelength resolution is required in spectral emission measurements in order to capture data on all chemical species involved in plasma reactions) and full spectrum samples are taken at frequent time points, so that dynamic process changes can be captured. To maximise the utility of the gathered dataset, it is essential that information redundancy is minimised, but with the important requirement that the resulting reduced dataset remains in a form that is amenable to direct interpretation of the physical process. To meet this requirement and to achieve a high reduction in dimension with little information loss, the IIRR method proposed in this paper operates directly in the original variable space, identifying peak wavelength emissions and the correlative relationships between them. A new statistic, Mean Determination Ratio (MDR), is proposed to quantify the information loss after dimension reduction and the effectiveness of IIRR is demonstrated using an actual semiconductor manufacturing dataset. As an example of the application of IIRR in process monitoring/control, we also show how etch rates can be accurately predicted from IIRR dimension-reduced spectral data. PMID:24451453

Role of non-fossil energy in meeting China's energy and climate target for 2020

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Sheng; Tong, Qing; Yu, Sha

2012-12-01

China is the largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter in the world. The Chinese government faces growing challenges of ensuring energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To address these two issues, the Chinese government has announced two ambitious domestic indicative autonomous mitigation targets for 2020: increasing the ratio of non-fossil energy to 15% and reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45% from 2005 levels. To explore the role of non-fossil energy in achieving these two targets, this paper first provides an overview of current status of non-fossil energy development in China; then gives a brief reviewmore » of GDP and primary energy consumption; next assesses in detail the role of the non fossil energy in 2020, including the installed capacity and electricity generation of non-fossil energy sources, the share and role of non-fossil energy in the electricity structure, emissions reduction resulting from the shift to non-fossil energy, and challenges for accomplishing the mitigation targets in 2020 ; finally, conclusions and policy measures for non-fossil energy development are proposed.« less

POWERFUL ACTIVITY IN THE BRIGHT AGES. I. A VISIBLE/IR SURVEY OF HIGH REDSHIFT 3C RADIO GALAXIES AND QUASARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hilbert, B.; Chiaberge, M.; Kotyla, J. P.

2016-07-01

We present new rest-frame UV and visible observations of 22 high- z (1 < z < 2.5) 3C radio galaxies and QSOs obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope ’s Wide Field Camera 3 instrument. Using a custom data reduction strategy in order to assure the removal of cosmic rays, persistence signal, and other data artifacts, we have produced high-quality science-ready images of the targets and their local environments. We observe targets with regions of UV emission suggestive of active star formation. In addition, several targets exhibit highly distorted host galaxy morphologies in the rest frame visible images. Photometric analyses revealmore » that brighter QSOs generally tend to be redder than their dimmer counterparts. Using emission line fluxes from the literature, we estimate that emission line contamination is relatively small in the rest frame UV images for the QSOs. Using archival VLA data, we have also created radio map overlays for each of our targets, allowing for analysis of the optical and radio axes alignment.« less

Operational and environmental performance in China's thermal power industry: Taking an effectiveness measure as complement to an efficiency measure.

PubMed

Wang, Ke; Zhang, Jieming; Wei, Yi-Ming

2017-05-01

The trend toward a more fiercely competitive and strictly environmentally regulated electricity market in several countries, including China has led to efforts by both industry and government to develop advanced performance evaluation models that adapt to new evaluation requirements. Traditional operational and environmental efficiency measures do not fully consider the influence of market competition and environmental regulations and, thus, are not sufficient for the thermal power industry to evaluate its operational performance with respect to specific marketing goals (operational effectiveness) and its environmental performance with respect to specific emissions reduction targets (environmental effectiveness). As a complement to an operational efficiency measure, an operational effectiveness measure not only reflects the capacity of an electricity production system to increase its electricity generation through the improvement of operational efficiency, but it also reflects the system's capability to adjust its electricity generation activities to match electricity demand. In addition, as a complement to an environmental efficiency measure, an environmental effectiveness measure not only reflects the capacity of an electricity production system to decrease its pollutant emissions through the improvement of environmental efficiency, but it also reflects the system's capability to adjust its emissions abatement activities to fulfill environmental regulations. Furthermore, an environmental effectiveness measure helps the government regulator to verify the rationality of its emissions reduction targets assigned to the thermal power industry. Several newly developed effectiveness measurements based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) were utilized in this study to evaluate the operational and environmental performance of the thermal power industry in China during 2006-2013. Both efficiency and effectiveness were evaluated from the three perspectives of operational, environmental, and joint adjustments to each electricity production system. The operational and environmental performance changes over time were also captured through an effectiveness measure based on the global Malmquist productivity index. Our empirical results indicated that the performance of China's thermal power industry experienced significant progress during the study period and that policies regarding the development and regulation of the thermal power industry yielded the expected effects. However, the emissions reduction targets assigned to China's thermal power industry are loose and conservative. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MERLIN: a Franco-German LIDAR space mission for atmospheric methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bousquet, P.; Ehret, G.; Pierangelo, C.; Marshall, J.; Bacour, C.; Chevallier, F.; Gibert, F.; Armante, R.; Crevoisier, C. D.; Edouart, D.; Esteve, F.; Julien, E.; Kiemle, C.; Alpers, M.; Millet, B.

2017-12-01

The Methane Remote Sensing Lidar Mission (MERLIN), currently in phase C, is a joint cooperation between France and Germany on the development, launch and operation of a space LIDAR dedicated to the retrieval of total weighted methane (CH4) atmospheric columns. Atmospheric methane is the second most potent anthropogenic greenhouse gas, contributing 20% to climate radiative forcing but also plying an important role in atmospheric chemistry as a precursor of tropospheric ozone and low-stratosphere water vapour. Its short lifetime ( 9 years) and the nature and variety of its anthropogenic sources also offer interesting mitigation options in regards to the 2° objective of the Paris agreement. For the first time, measurements of atmospheric composition will be performed from space thanks to an IPDA (Integrated Path Differential Absorption) LIDAR (Light Detecting And Ranging), with a precision (target ±27 ppb for a 50km aggregation along the trace) and accuracy (target <3.7 ppb at 68%) sufficient to significantly reduce the uncertainties on methane emissions. The very low targeted systematic error target is particularly ambitious compared to current passive methane space mission. It is achievable because of the differential active measurements of MERLIN, which guarantees almost no contamination by aerosols or water vapour cross-sensitivity. As an active mission, MERLIN will deliver global methane weighted columns (XCH4) for all seasons and all latitudes, day and night Here, we recall the MERLIN objectives and mission characteristics. We also propose an end-to-end error analysis, from the causes of random and systematic errors of the instrument, of the platform and of the data treatment, to the error on methane emissions. To do so, we propose an OSSE analysis (observing system simulation experiment) to estimate the uncertainty reduction on methane emissions brought by MERLIN XCH4. The originality of our inversion system is to transfer both random and systematic errors from the observation space to the flux space, thus providing more realistic error reductions than usually provided in OSSE only using the random part of errors. Uncertainty reductions are presented using two different atmospheric transport models, TM3 and LMDZ, and compared with error reduction achieved with the GOSAT passive mission.

Susceptibility of contrail ice crystal numbers to aircraft soot particle emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kärcher, B.; Voigt, C.

2017-08-01

We develop an idealized, physically based model describing combined effects of ice nucleation and sublimation on ice crystal number during persistent contrail formation. Our study represents the first effort to predict ice numbers at the point where contrails transition into contrail cirrus—several minutes past formation—by connecting them to aircraft soot particle emissions and atmospheric supersaturation with respect to ice. Results averaged over an observed exponential distribution of ice supersaturation (mean value 15%) indicate that large reductions in soot particle numbers are needed to lower contrail ice crystal numbers significantly for soot emission indices around 1015 (kg fuel)-1, because reductions in nucleated ice number are partially compensated by sublimation losses. Variations in soot particle (-50%) and water vapor (+10%) emission indices at threefold lower soot emissions resulting from biofuel blending cause ice crystal numbers to change by -35% and <5%, respectively. The efficiency of reduction depends on ice supersaturation and the size distribution of nucleated ice crystals in jet exhaust plumes and on atmospheric ice supersaturation, making the latter another key factor in contrail mitigation. We expect our study to have important repercussions for planning airborne measurements targeting contrail formation, designing parameterization schemes for use in large-scale models, reducing uncertainties in predicting contrail cirrus, and mitigating the climate impact of aviation.

Assessing Concentrations and Health Impacts of Air Quality Management Strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST)

PubMed Central

Milando, Chad W.; Martenies, Sheena E.; Batterman, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest the potential for FRESH-EST to identify pollution control alternatives for air quality management planning. PMID:27318620

Cities’ Role in Mitigating United States Food System Greenhouse Gas Emissions

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Current trends of urbanization, population growth, and economic development have made cities a focal point for mitigating global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The substantial contribution of food consumption to climate change necessitates urban action to reduce the carbon intensity of the food system. While food system GHG mitigation strategies often focus on production, we argue that urban influence dominates this sector’s emissions and that consumers in cities must be the primary drivers of mitigation. We quantify life cycle GHG emissions of the United States food system through data collected from literature and government sources producing an estimated total of 3800 kg CO2e/capita in 2010, with cities directly influencing approximately two-thirds of food sector GHG emissions. We then assess the potential for cities to reduce emissions through selected measures; examples include up-scaling urban agriculture and home delivery of grocery options, which each may achieve emissions reductions on the order of 0.4 and ∼1% of this total, respectively. Meanwhile, changes in waste management practices and reduction of postdistribution food waste by 50% reduce total food sector emissions by 5 and 11%, respectively. Consideration of the scale of benefits achievable through policy goals can enable cities to formulate strategies that will assist in achieving deep long-term GHG emissions targets. PMID:29717606

Cities' Role in Mitigating United States Food System Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

PubMed

Mohareb, Eugene A; Heller, Martin C; Guthrie, Peter M

2018-05-15

Current trends of urbanization, population growth, and economic development have made cities a focal point for mitigating global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The substantial contribution of food consumption to climate change necessitates urban action to reduce the carbon intensity of the food system. While food system GHG mitigation strategies often focus on production, we argue that urban influence dominates this sector's emissions and that consumers in cities must be the primary drivers of mitigation. We quantify life cycle GHG emissions of the United States food system through data collected from literature and government sources producing an estimated total of 3800 kg CO 2 e/capita in 2010, with cities directly influencing approximately two-thirds of food sector GHG emissions. We then assess the potential for cities to reduce emissions through selected measures; examples include up-scaling urban agriculture and home delivery of grocery options, which each may achieve emissions reductions on the order of 0.4 and ∼1% of this total, respectively. Meanwhile, changes in waste management practices and reduction of postdistribution food waste by 50% reduce total food sector emissions by 5 and 11%, respectively. Consideration of the scale of benefits achievable through policy goals can enable cities to formulate strategies that will assist in achieving deep long-term GHG emissions targets.

Multiple effects and uncertainties of emission control policies in China: Implications for public health, soil acidification, and global temperature.

PubMed

Zhao, Yu; McElroy, Michael B; Xing, Jia; Duan, Lei; Nielsen, Chris P; Lei, Yu; Hao, Jiming

2011-11-15

Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1-7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimization of Power Generation Rights Under the Requirements of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu-ping, YANY; Chong-wei, ZHONG; Fei-fei, YAN; Cheng-yi, TANG

2018-03-01

In recent years, the energy crisis and greenhouse effect problem have caused wide public concern, if these issues cannot be resolved quickly, they will bring troubles to people’s lives.In response, many countries around the world have implemented policies to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In our country, the electric power industry has made great contribution to the daily life of people and the development of industry, but it is also an industry of high consumption and high emission.In order to realize the sustainable development of society, it is necessary to make energy conservation and emission reduction in the power industry as an important part of the realization of this goal.In this context, power generation trade has become a hot topic in energy conservation and emission reduction.Through the electricity consumption of the units with different power efficiency and coal consumption rate,it can achieve the target of reducing coal consumption, reducing network loss, reducing greenhouse gas emission, and increasing social benefit,and so on. This article put forward a optimal energy model on the basis of guaranteeing safety and environmental protection.In this paper, they used the IEEE30, IEEE39, IEEE57 and IEEE118 node system as an example, and set up the control groups to prove the practicality of the presented model.The solving method of this model was interior-point method.

Air-pollution emission control in China: impacts on soil acidification recovery and constraints due to drought.

PubMed

Duan, Lei; Liu, Jing; Xin, Yan; Larssen, Thorjørn

2013-10-01

The Chinese government has established compulsory targets to reduce sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 8% and 10%, respectively, during 2010-2015. In this study, the effect of the policy was evaluated by predicting the recovery of acidified forest soil in Chongqing, an area severely impacted by acid rain in southwest China. Since precipitation has decreased significantly in this area in recent years, the impact of drought on soil acidification was also considered. A dynamic acidification model, MAGIC, was used to predict future trends in soil chemistry under different scenarios for deposition reduction as well as drought. We found that the current regulation of SO2 emission abatement did not significantly increase soil water pH values, the Ca2+ to Al3+ molar ratio (Ca/Al), or soil base saturation to the level of 2000 before 2050. NOx emission control would have less of an effect on acidification recovery, while emission reduction of particulate matter could offset the benefits of SO2 reduction by greatly decreasing the deposition of base cations, particularly Ca(2+). Continuous droughts in the future might also delay acidification recovery. Therefore, more stringent SO2 emission control should be implemented to facilitate the recovery of seriously acidified areas in China. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards a Novel Integrated Approach for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Support of International Agreements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimann, S.; Vollmer, M. K.; Henne, S.; Brunner, D.; Emmenegger, L.; Manning, A.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; Dunse, B. L.; DeCola, P.; Tarasova, O. A.

2016-12-01

In the recently adopted Paris Agreement the community of signatory states has agreed to limit the future global temperature increase between +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C, compared to pre-industrial times. To achieve this goal, emission reduction targets have been submitted by individual nations (called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs). Inventories will be used for checking progress towards these envisaged goals. These inventories are calculated by combining information on specific activities (e.g. passenger cars, agriculture) with activity-related, typically IPCC-sanctioned, emission factors - the so-called bottom-up method. These calculated emissions are reported on an annual basis and are checked by external bodies by using the same method. A second independent method estimates emissions by translating greenhouse gas measurements made at regionally representative stations into regional/global emissions using meteorologically-based transport models. In recent years this so-called top-down approach has been substantially advanced into a powerful tool and emission estimates at the national/regional level have become possible. This method is already used in Switzerland, in the United Kingdom and in Australia to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and independently support the national bottom-up emission inventories within the UNFCCC framework. Examples of the comparison of the two independent methods will be presented and the added-value will be discussed. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and partner organizations are currently developing a plan to expand this top-down approach and to expand the globally representative GAW network of ground-based stations and remote-sensing platforms and integrate their information with atmospheric transport models. This Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) initiative will help nations to improve the accuracy of their country-based emissions inventories and their ability to evaluate the success of emission reductions strategies. This could foster trans-national collaboration on methodologies for estimation of emissions. Furthermore, more accurate emission knowledge will clarify the value of emission reduction efforts and could encourage countries to strengthen their reduction pledges.

Radio-Frequency-Controlled Urea Dosing for NH₃-SCR Catalysts: NH₃ Storage Influence to Catalyst Performance under Transient Conditions.

PubMed

Dietrich, Markus; Hagen, Gunter; Reitmeier, Willibald; Burger, Katharina; Hien, Markus; Grass, Philippe; Kubinski, David; Visser, Jaco; Moos, Ralf

2017-11-28

Current developments in exhaust gas aftertreatment led to a huge mistrust in diesel driven passenger cars due to their NO x emissions being too high. The selective catalytic reduction (SCR) with ammonia (NH₃) as reducing agent is the only approach today with the capability to meet upcoming emission limits. Therefore, the radio-frequency-based (RF) catalyst state determination to monitor the NH₃ loading on SCR catalysts has a huge potential in emission reduction. Recent work on this topic proved the basic capability of this technique under realistic conditions on an engine test bench. In these studies, an RF system calibration for the serial type SCR catalyst Cu-SSZ-13 was developed and different approaches for a temperature dependent NH₃ storage were determined. This paper continues this work and uses a fully calibrated RF-SCR system under transient conditions to compare different directly measured and controlled NH₃ storage levels, and NH₃ target curves. It could be clearly demonstrated that the right NH₃ target curve, together with a direct control on the desired level by the RF system, is able to operate the SCR system with the maximum possible NO x conversion efficiency and without NH₃ slip.

Light-duty vehicle CO2 targets consistent with 450 ppm CO2 stabilization.

PubMed

Winkler, Sandra L; Wallington, Timothy J; Maas, Heiko; Hass, Heinz

2014-06-03

We present a global analysis of CO2 emission reductions from the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration at 450 ppm. The CO2 emission reductions are described by g CO2/km emission targets for average new light-duty vehicles on a tank-to-wheel basis between 2010 and 2050 that we call CO2 glide paths. The analysis accounts for growth of the vehicle fleet, changing patterns in driving distance, regional availability of biofuels, and the changing composition of fossil fuels. New light-duty vehicle fuel economy and CO2 regulations in the U.S. through 2025 and in the EU through 2020 are broadly consistent with the CO2 glide paths. The glide path is at the upper end of the discussed 2025 EU range of 68-78 g CO2/km. The proposed China regulation for 2020 is more stringent than the glide path, while the 2017 Brazil regulation is less stringent. Existing regulations through 2025 are broadly consistent with the light-duty vehicle sector contributing to stabilizing CO2 at approximately 450 ppm. The glide paths provide long-term guidance for LDV powertrain/fuel development.

Review of Mitigation Costs for Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; O'Neill, B. C.

2014-12-01

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid future climate change comes at a cost, because low-emission technologies are more expensive than GHG-emitting technology options. The increase in mitigation cost is not linearly related to the stabilization level, though: the first emission reductions are relatively cheap, but deeper emission reductions become more expensive. Therefore, emission reduction to medium levels of GHG concentrations , such as 4.5 or 6 W/m2, is considerably cheaper than emission reduction to low levels of GHG concentrations, such as 2.6 or 3.7 W/m2. Moreover, mitigation costs are influenced by many other aspects than the targeted mitigation level alone, such as whether or not certain technologies are available or societally acceptable (Kriegler et al., 2014); the rate of technological progress and cost reduction of low-emission technologies; the level of final energy demand (Riahi et al., 2011), and the level of global cooperation and trade in emission allowances (den Elzen and Höhne, 2010). This paper reviews the existing literature on greenhouse gas mitigation costs. We analyze the available data on mitigation costs and draw conclusions on how these change for different stabilization levels of GHG concentrations. We will take into account the aspects of technology, energy demand, and cooperation in distinguishing differences between scenarios and stabilization levels. References: den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2C. Climate Policy 10, 247-260. Kriegler, E., Weyant, J., Blanford, G., Krey, V., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Richels, R., Rose, S., Tavoni, M., Vuuren, D., 2014. The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change, 1-15. Riahi, K., Dentener, F., Gielen, D., Grubler, A., Jewell, J., Klimont, Z., Krey, V., McCollum, D., Pachauri, S., Rao, S., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D.P., Wilson, C., 2011. Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development, The Global Energy Assessment: Toward a More Sustainable Future. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Challenges for the geosciences after the Paris agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutti, R.; Sedlacek, J.; Rogelj, J.; Fischer, E. M.

2016-12-01

The world's governments agreed to limit global mean temperature change to below 2 °C or 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels in Paris. These warming targets are often perceived by the public as a universally accepted goal, identified by scientists as a safe limit that avoids dangerous climate change. This perception is incorrect: no scientific assessment has clearly justified or defended 2°C as a safe level of warming, and indeed, this is not a problem that science alone can address. We argue that global temperature is the best climate target quantity, but it is unclear what level can be considered safe. However, irrespective of the target, the concept of cumulative carbon implies that substantial and sustained emission reductions are required to limit climate change to temperature levels that are currently being considered safe. The Paris agreement poses many open questions to the geoscience community: the impacts of a temperature overshoot, the limits of negative emissions, and the role of radiative forcings other than carbon dioxide need to be better understood. Treating uncertainties, incorporating risk, and linking local impacts and development objectives to global climate goals also remain major open issues that need to be tackled in a continued dialogue with science communities. The negotiations up to Paris and the 2 °C target have been useful for anchoring discussions, but ineffective in triggering the required emission reductions; the debates on considering different targets are strongly at odds with the current real-world level of action. These debates are moot, however, as the decisions that need to be taken now to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C are very similar. We need to agree how to start, not where to end mitigation.

Constructing a sustainable power sector in China: current and future emissions of coal-fired power plants from 2010 to 2030

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, D.; Zhang, Q.

2017-12-01

As the largest energy infrastructure in China, power sector consumed more coal than any other sector and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement target. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants in China during 2010-2030 and the evolution of associated emissions for the same period by using a unit-based emission projection model which integrated the historical power plants information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and the evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by the stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions from China's coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24% respectively during 2010-2015, comparing to 14% increase of coal consumption and 15% increase in CO2 emissions. We estimated that under current national energy development planning, coal consumption and CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will continue to increase until 2030, in which against the China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) targets. Early retirement of old and low-efficient power plants will cumulatively reduce 2.2 Pg CO2 emissions from the baseline scenario during 2016-2030, but still could not curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of "near zero" emission control policy, we projected that emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during the same period under all scenarios, indicating the decoupling trends of air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Although with limited direct emission reduction benefits, increasing operating hours of power plants could avoid 236 GW of new power plants construction, which could indirectly reduce emissions embodied in the construction activity. Our results identified a more sustainable pathway for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce air pollutant emissions, improve the energy efficiency, and slow down the construction of new units. However, continuous construction of new coal-fired power plants driven by increased electricity demand would pose a potential threat to climate change mitigation and China's peak carbon pledge, and more aggressive CO2 emission reduction policy should be implemented in the future.

Climate Change Mitigation Challenge for Wood Utilization-The Case of Finland.

PubMed

Soimakallio, Sampo; Saikku, Laura; Valsta, Lauri; Pingoud, Kim

2016-05-17

The urgent need to mitigate climate change invokes both opportunities and challenges for forest biomass utilization. Fossil fuels can be substituted by using wood products in place of alternative materials and energy, but wood harvesting reduces forest carbon sink and processing of wood products requires material and energy inputs. We assessed the extended life cycle carbon emissions considering substitution impacts for various wood utilization scenarios over 100 years from 2010 onward for Finland. The scenarios were based on various but constant wood utilization structures reflecting current and anticipated mix of wood utilization activities. We applied stochastic simulation to deal with the uncertainty in a number of input variables required. According to our analysis, the wood utilization decrease net carbon emissions with a probability lower than 40% for each of the studied scenarios. Furthermore, large emission reductions were exceptionally unlikely. The uncertainty of the results were influenced clearly the most by the reduction in the forest carbon sink. There is a significant trade-off between avoiding emissions through fossil fuel substitution and reduction in forest carbon sink due to wood harvesting. This creates a major challenge for forest management practices and wood utilization activities in responding to ambitious climate change mitigation targets.

Premature deaths attributed to source-specific BC emissions in six urban US regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Matthew D.; Henze, Daven K.; Capps, Shannon L.; Hakami, Amir; Zhao, Shunliu; Resler, Jaroslav; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Stanier, Charles O.; Baek, Jaemeen; Sandu, Adrian; Russell, Armistead G.; Nenes, Athanasios; Pinder, Rob W.; Napelenok, Sergey L.; Bash, Jesse O.; Percell, Peter B.; Chai, Tianfeng

2015-11-01

Recent studies have shown that exposure to particulate black carbon (BC) has significant adverse health effects and may be more detrimental to human health than exposure to PM2.5 as a whole. Mobile source BC emission controls, mostly on diesel-burning vehicles, have successfully decreased mobile source BC emissions to less than half of what they were 30 years ago. Quantification of the benefits of previous emissions controls conveys the value of these regulatory actions and provides a method by which future control alternatives could be evaluated. In this study we use the adjoint of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to estimate highly-resolved spatial distributions of benefits related to emission reductions for six urban regions within the continental US. Emissions from outside each of the six chosen regions account for between 7% and 27% of the premature deaths attributed to exposure to BC within the region. While we estimate that nonroad mobile and onroad diesel emissions account for the largest number of premature deaths attributable to exposure to BC, onroad gasoline is shown to have more than double the benefit per unit emission relative to that of nonroad mobile and onroad diesel. Within the region encompassing New York City and Philadelphia, reductions in emissions from large industrial combustion sources that are not classified as EGUs (i.e., non-EGU) are estimated to have up to triple the benefits per unit emission relative to reductions to onroad diesel sectors, and provide similar benefits per unit emission to that of onroad gasoline emissions in the region. While onroad mobile emissions have been decreasing in the past 30 years and a majority of vehicle emission controls that regulate PM focus on diesel emissions, our analysis shows the most efficient target for stricter controls is actually onroad gasoline emissions.

Technical and Non-Technical Measures for air pollution emission reduction: The integrated assessment of the regional Air Quality Management Plans through the Italian national model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Elia, I.; Bencardino, M.; Ciancarella, L.; Contaldi, M.; Vialetto, G.

2009-12-01

The Italian Air Quality legislation underwent sweeping changes with the implementation of the 1996 European Air Quality Framework Directive when the Italian administrative Regions were entrusted with air quality management tasks. The most recent Regional Air Quality Management Plans (AQMPs) highlighted the importance of Non-Technical Measures (NTMs), in addition to Technical Measures (TMs), in meeting environmental targets. The aim of the present work is to compile a list of all the TMs and NTMs taken into account in the Italian Regional AQMPs and to give in the target year, 2010, an estimation of SO 2, NO x and PM 10 emission reductions, of PM 10 concentration and of the health impact of PM 2.5 concentrations in terms of Life Expectancy Reduction. In order to do that, RAINS-Italy, as part of the National Integrated Modeling system for International Negotiation on atmospheric pollution (MINNI), has been applied. The management of TMs and NTMs inside RAINS have often obliged both the introduction of exogenous driving force scenarios and the control strategy modification. This has inspired a revision of the many NTM definitions and a clear choice of the definition adopted. It was finally highlighted that only few TMs and NTMs implemented in the AQMPs represent effective measures in reaching the environmental targets.

China's Pathways to Achieving 40% ~ 45% Reduction in CO{sub 2} Emissions per Unit of GDP in 2020: Sectoral Outlook and Assessment of Savings Potential

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David; Zhou, Nan

2011-09-30

Achieving China’s goal of reducing its carbon intensity (CO{sub 2} per unit of GDP) by 40% to 45% percent below 2005 levels by 2020 will require the strengthening and expansion of energy efficiency policies across the buildings, industries and transport sectors. This study uses a bottom-up, end-use model and two scenarios -- an enhanced energy efficiency (E3) scenario and an alternative maximum technically feasible energy efficiency improvement (Max Tech) scenario – to evaluate what policies and technical improvements are needed to achieve the 2020 carbon intensity reduction target. The findings from this study show that a determined approach by Chinamore » can lead to the achievement of its 2020 goal. In particular, with full success in deepening its energy efficiency policies and programs but following the same general approach used during the 11th Five Year Plan, it is possible to achieve 49% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP (CO{sub 2} emissions intensity) in 2020 from 2005 levels (E3 case). Under the more optimistic but feasible assumptions of development and penetration of advanced energy efficiency technology (Max Tech case), China could achieve a 56% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions intensity in 2020 relative to 2005 with cumulative reduction of energy use by 2700 Mtce and of CO{sub 2} emissions of 8107 Mt CO{sub 2} between 2010 and 2020. Energy savings and CO{sub 2} mitigation potential varies by sector but most of the energy savings potential is found in energy-intensive industry. At the same time, electricity savings and the associated emissions reduction are magnified by increasing renewable generation and improving coal generation efficiency, underscoring the dual importance of end-use efficiency improvements and power sector decarbonization.« less

The role of large—scale BECCS in the pursuit of the 1.5°C target: an Earth system model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muri, Helene

2018-04-01

The increasing awareness of the many damaging aspects of climate change has prompted research into ways of reducing and reversing the anthropogenic increase in carbon concentrations in the atmosphere. Most emission scenarios stabilizing climate at low levels, such as the 1.5 °C target as outlined by the Paris Agreement, require large-scale deployment of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). Here, the potential of large-scale BECCS deployment in contributing towards the 1.5 °C global warming target is evaluated using an Earth system model, as well as associated climate responses and carbon cycle feedbacks. The geographical location of the bioenergy feedstock is shown to be key to the success of such measures in the context of temperature targets. Although net negative emissions were reached sooner, by ∼6 years, and scaled up, land use change emissions and reductions in forest carbon sinks outweigh these effects in one scenario. Re-cultivating mid-latitudes was found to be beneficial, on the other hand, contributing in the right direction towards the 1.5 °C target, only by ‑0.1 °C and ‑54 Gt C in avoided emissions, however. Obstacles remain related to competition for land from nature preservation and food security, as well as the technological availability of CCS.

Towards environmentally sustainable human behaviour: targeting non-conscious and conscious processes for effective and acceptable policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marteau, Theresa M.

2017-05-01

Meeting climate change targets to limit global warming to 2°C requires rapid and large reductions in demand for products that most contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These include production of bulk materials (e.g. steel and cement), energy supply (e.g. fossil fuels) and animal source foods (particularly ruminants and their products). Effective strategies to meet these targets require transformative changes in supply as well as demand, involving changes in economic, political and legal systems at local, national and international levels, building on evidence from many disciplines. This paper outlines contributions from behavioural science in reducing demand. Grounded in dual-process models of human behaviour (involving non-conscious and conscious processes) this paper considers first why interventions aimed at changing population values towards the environment are usually insufficient or unnecessary for reducing demand although they may be important in increasing public acceptability of policies that could reduce demand. It then outlines two sets of evidence from behavioural science towards effective systems-based strategies, to identify interventions likely to be effective at: (i) reducing demand for products that contribute most to GHG emissions, mainly targeting non-conscious processes and (ii) increasing public acceptability for policy changes to enable these interventions, targeting conscious processes. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Towards environmentally sustainable human behaviour: targeting non-conscious and conscious processes for effective and acceptable policies.

PubMed

Marteau, Theresa M

2017-06-13

Meeting climate change targets to limit global warming to 2°C requires rapid and large reductions in demand for products that most contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These include production of bulk materials (e.g. steel and cement), energy supply (e.g. fossil fuels) and animal source foods (particularly ruminants and their products). Effective strategies to meet these targets require transformative changes in supply as well as demand, involving changes in economic, political and legal systems at local, national and international levels, building on evidence from many disciplines. This paper outlines contributions from behavioural science in reducing demand. Grounded in dual-process models of human behaviour (involving non-conscious and conscious processes) this paper considers first why interventions aimed at changing population values towards the environment are usually insufficient or unnecessary for reducing demand although they may be important in increasing public acceptability of policies that could reduce demand. It then outlines two sets of evidence from behavioural science towards effective systems-based strategies, to identify interventions likely to be effective at: (i) reducing demand for products that contribute most to GHG emissions, mainly targeting non-conscious processes and (ii) increasing public acceptability for policy changes to enable these interventions, targeting conscious processes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Authors.

Sources of Mercury Exposure for U.S. Seafood Consumers: Implications for Policy

EPA Science Inventory

Recent policies attempting to reduce adverse effects of methylmercury exposure from fish consumption in the U.S. have targeted reductions in anthropogenic emissions from U.S. sources. Methods: We use models that simulate global atmospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem); the fate, transp...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong, Taehoon, E-mail: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr; Kim, Jimin, E-mail: cookie6249@yonsei.ac.kr; Jeong, Kwangbok, E-mail: kbjeong7@yonsei.ac.kr

To systematically manage the energy consumption of existing buildings, the government has to enforce greenhouse gas reduction policies. However, most of the policies are not properly executed because they do not consider various factors from the urban level perspective. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct a dynamic analysis of an urban-based low-carbon policy using system dynamics, with a specific focus on housing and green space. This study was conducted in the following steps: (i) establishing the variables of urban-based greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions; (ii) creating a stock/flow diagram of urban-based GHGs emissions; (iii) conducting an information analysis using the systemmore » dynamics; and (iv) proposing the urban-based low-carbon policy. If a combined energy policy that uses the housing sector (30%) and the green space sector (30%) at the same time is implemented, 2020 CO{sub 2} emissions will be 7.23 million tons (i.e., 30.48% below 2020 business-as-usual), achieving the national carbon emissions reduction target (26.9%). The results of this study could contribute to managing and improving the fundamentals of the urban-based low-carbon policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Personal Vehicles Evaluated against Climate Change Mitigation Targets.

PubMed

Miotti, Marco; Supran, Geoffrey J; Kim, Ella J; Trancik, Jessika E

2016-10-18

Meeting global climate change mitigation goals will likely require that transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions begin to decline within the next two decades and then continue to fall. A variety of vehicle technologies and fuels are commercially available to consumers today that can reduce the emissions of the transportation sector. Yet what are the best options, and do any suffice to meet climate policy targets? Here, we examine the costs and carbon intensities of 125 light-duty vehicle models on the U.S. market today and evaluate these models against U.S. emission-reduction targets for 2030, 2040, and 2050 that are compatible with the goal of limiting mean global temperature rise to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Our results show that consumers are not required to pay more for a low-carbon-emitting vehicle. Across the diverse set of vehicle models and powertrain technologies examined, a clean vehicle is usually a low-cost vehicle. Although the average carbon intensity of vehicles sold in 2014 exceeds the climate target for 2030 by more than 50%, we find that most hybrid and battery electric vehicles available today meet this target. By 2050, only electric vehicles supplied with almost completely carbon-free electric power are expected to meet climate-policy targets.

Indoor PM2.5 exposure in London's domestic stock: Modelling current and future exposures following energy efficient refurbishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrubsole, C.; Ridley, I.; Biddulph, P.; Milner, J.; Vardoulakis, S.; Ucci, M.; Wilkinson, P.; Chalabi, Z.; Davies, M.

2012-12-01

Simulations using CONTAM (a validated multi-zone indoor air quality (IAQ) model) are employed to predict indoor exposure to PM2.5 in London dwellings in both the present day housing stock and the same stock following energy efficient refurbishments to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2050. We modelled interventions that would contribute to the achievement of these targets by reducing the permeability of the dwellings to 3 m3 m-2 h-1 at 50 Pa, combined with the introduction of mechanical ventilation and heat recovery (MVHR) systems. It is assumed that the current mean outdoor PM2.5 concentration of 13 μg m-3 decreased to 9 μg m-3 by 2050 due to emission control policies. Our primary finding was that installation of (assumed perfectly functioning) MVHR systems with permeability reduction are associated with appreciable reductions in PM2.5 exposure in both smoking and non-smoking dwellings. Modelling of the future scenario for non-smoking dwellings show a reduction in annual average indoor exposure to PM2.5 of 18.8 μg m-3 (from 28.4 to 9.6 μg m-3) for a typical household member. Also of interest is that a larger reduction of 42.6 μg m-3 (from 60.5 to 17.9 μg m-3) was shown for members exposed primarily to cooking-related particle emissions in the kitchen (cooks). Reductions in envelope permeability without mechanical ventilation produced increases in indoor PM2.5 concentrations; 5.4 μg m-3 for typical household members and 9.8 μg m-3 for cooks. These estimates of changes in PM2.5 exposure are sensitive to assumptions about occupant behaviour, ventilation system usage and the distributions of input variables (±72% for non-smoking and ±107% in smoking residences). However, if realised, they would result in significant health benefits.

Achieving CO 2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andres Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana Maria

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increasemore » in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.« less

Achieving CO 2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

DOE PAGES

Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andres Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana Maria; ...

2015-06-03

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increasemore » in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.« less

Clinical and Radiographic Response of Extramedullary Leukemia in Patients Treated With Gemtuzumab Ozogamicin.

PubMed

McNeil, Michael J; Parisi, Marguerite T; Hijiya, Nobuko; Meshinchi, Soheil; Cooper, Todd; Tarlock, Katherine

2018-05-04

Extramedullary leukemia (EML) is common in pediatric acute leukemia and can present at diagnosis or relapse. CD33 is detected on the surface of myeloid blasts in many patients with acute myelogenous leukemia and is the target of the antibody drug conjugate gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO). Here we present 2 patients with CD33 EML treated with GO. They achieved significant response, with reduction of EML on both clinical and radiographic exams, specifically fluorine fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography, demonstrating potential for targeted therapy with GO as a means of treating EML in patients with CD33 leukemia and the utility of fluorine fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography monitoring in EML.

Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

2016-05-17

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

Understanding changes in the UK's CO2 emissions: a global perspective.

PubMed

Baiocchi, Giovanni; Minx, Jan C

2010-02-15

The UK appears to be a leading country in curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Unlike many other developed countries, it has already met its Kyoto obligations and defined ambitious, legally binding targets for the future. Recently this achievement has been called into question as it ignores rapidly changing patterns of production and international trade. We use structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to investigate the drivers behind annual changes in CO(2) emission from consumption in the UK between 1992 and 2004. In contrast with previous SDA-based studies, we apply the decomposition to a global, multiregional input-output model (MRIO), which accounts for UK imports from all regions and uses region-specific production structures and CO(2) intensities. We find that improvements from "domestic" changes in efficiency and production structure led to a 148 Mt reduction in CO(2) emissions, which only partially offsets emission increases of 217 Mt from changes in the global supply chain and from growing consumer demand. Recent emission reductions achieved in the UK are not merely a reflection of a greening of the domestic supply chain, but also of a change in the international division of labor in the global production of goods and services.

Strategies to mitigate nitrous oxide emissions from herbivore production systems.

PubMed

Schils, R L M; Eriksen, J; Ledgard, S F; Vellinga, Th V; Kuikman, P J; Luo, J; Petersen, S O; Velthof, G L

2013-03-01

Herbivores are a significant source of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions. They account for a large share of manure-related N(2)O emissions, as well as soil-related N(2)O emissions through the use of grazing land, and land for feed and forage production. It is widely acknowledged that mitigation measures are necessary to avoid an increase in N(2)O emissions while meeting the growing global food demand. The production and emissions of N(2)O are closely linked to the efficiency of nitrogen (N) transfer between the major components of a livestock system, that is, animal, manure, soil and crop. Therefore, mitigation options in this paper have been structured along these N pathways. Mitigation technologies involving diet-based intervention include lowering the CP content or increasing the condensed tannin content of the diet. Animal-related mitigation options also include breeding for improved N conversion and high animal productivity. The main soil-based mitigation measures include efficient use of fertilizer and manure, including the use of nitrification inhibitors. In pasture-based systems with animal housing facilities, reducing grazing time is an effective option to reduce N(2)O losses. Crop-based options comprise breeding efforts for increased N-use efficiency and the use of pastures with N(2)-fixing clover. It is important to recognize that all N(2)O mitigation options affect the N and carbon cycles of livestock systems. Therefore, care should be taken that reductions in N(2)O emissions are not offset by unwanted increases in ammonia, methane or carbon dioxide emissions. Despite the abundant availability of mitigation options, implementation in practice is still lagging. Actual implementation will only follow after increased awareness among farmers and greenhouse gases targeted policies. So far, reductions in N(2)O emissions that have been achieved are mostly a positive side effect of other N-targeted policies.

The influence of foreign vs. North American emissions on surface ozone in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidmiller, D. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Jaffe, D. A.; Bergmann, D.; Cuvelier, C.; Dentener, F. J.; Duncan, B. N.; Folberth, G.; Gauss, M.; Gong, S.; Hess, P.; Jonson, J. E.; Keating, T.; Lupu, A.; Marmer, E.; Park, R.; Schultz, M. G.; Shindell, D. T.; Szopa, S.; Vivanco, M. G.; Wild, O.; Zuber, A.

2009-03-01

As part of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP; http://www.htap.org/) project, we analyze results from 16 global and hemispheric chemical transport models and compare these to Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) observations in the United States (US) for 2001. Using the policy-relevant maximum daily 8-h ozone (MDA8 O3) statistic, the multi-model ensemble represents the observations well (mean r2=0.57, ensemble bias=+4.1 ppbv for all regions and all seasons) despite a wide range in the individual model results. Correlations are strongest in the NorthEastern US during spring and fall (r2=0.68); and weakest in the Midwestern US in summer (r2=0.46). However, large positive mean biases exist during summer for all Eastern US regions, ranging from 10-20 ppbv, and a smaller negative bias is present in the Western US during spring (~3 ppbv). In most all other regions and seasons, the biases of the model ensemble simulations are ≤5 ppbv. Sensitivity simulations in which anthropogenic O3-precursor emissions (NOx+NMVOC+CO+aerosols) were decreased by 20% in each of four source regions: East Asia (EA), South Asia (SA), Europe (EU) and North America (NA) show that the greatest response of MDA8 O3 to the summed foreign emissions reductions occurs during spring in the West (0.9 ppbv reduction due to 20% reductions from EA+SA+EU). East Asia is the largest contributor to MDA8 O3 at all ranges of the O3 distribution for most regions (typically ~0.45 ppbv). The exception is in the NorthEastern US where European emissions reductions had the greatest impact on MDA8 O3, particularly in the middle of the MDA8 O3 distribution (response of ~0.35 ppbv between 35-55 ppbv). In all regions and seasons, however, O3-precursor emissions reductions of 20% in the NA source region decrease MDA8 O3 the most - by a factor of 2 to nearly 10 relative to foreign emissions reductions. The O3 response to anthropogenic NA emissions is greatest in the Eastern US during summer at the high end of the O3 distribution (5-6 ppbv for 20% reductions). While the impact of foreign emissions on surface O3 in the US is not negligible - and is of increasing concern given the growth in emissions upwind of the US - domestic emissions reductions remain a far more effective means of decreasing MDA8 O3 values, particularly those above 75 ppb (the current US standard).

The contribution of sectoral climate change mitigation options to national targets: a quantitative assessment of dairy production in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Patric; Herold, Martin; Rufino, Mariana C.

2018-03-01

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture has become a critical target in national climate change policies. More than 80% of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) refer to the reduction of agricultural emissions, including livestock, in their nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate climate change. The livestock sector in Kenya contributes largely to the gross domestic product and to GHG emissions from the land use sector. The government has recently pledged in its NDC to curb total GHG emissions by 30% by 2030. Quantifying and linking the mitigation potential of farm practices to national targets is required to support realistically the implementation of NDCs. Improvements in feed and manure management represent promising mitigation options for dairy production. This study aimed (i) to assess mitigation and food production benefits of feed and manure management scenarios, including land use changes covering Kenya’s entire dairy production region and (ii) to analyse the contribution of these practices to national targets on milk production and mitigation, and their biophysical feasibility given the availability of arable land. The results indicate that improving forage quality by increasing the use of Napier grass and supplementing dairy concentrates supports Kenya’s NDC target, reduces emission intensities by 26%-31%, partially achieves the national milk productivity target for 2030 by 38%-41%, and shows high feasibility given the availability of arable land. Covering manure heaps may reduce emissions from manure management by 68%. In contrast, including maize silage in cattle diets would not reduce emission intensities due to the risk of ten-fold higher emissions from the conversion of land required to grow additional maize. The shortage of arable land may render the implementation of these improved feed practices largely infeasible. This assessment provides the first quantitative estimates of the potential of feed intensification and manure management to mitigate GHG emissions and to increase milk yields at sectoral-level and at a high spatial resolution for an SSA country. The scientific evidence is tailored to support actual policy and decision-making processes at the national level, such as ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’. Linking feed intensification and manure management strategies with spatially-explicit estimates of mitigation and food production to national targets may help the sector to access climate financing while contributing to food security.

The influence of foreign vs. North American emissions on surface ozone in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidmiller, D. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Jaffe, D. A.; Bergmann, D.; Cuvelier, C.; Dentener, F. J.; Duncan, B. N.; Folberth, G.; Gauss, M.; Gong, S.; Hess, P.; Jonson, J. E.; Keating, T.; Lupu, A.; Marmer, E.; Park, R.; Schultz, M. G.; Shindell, D. T.; Szopa, S.; Vivanco, M. G.; Wild, O.; Zuber, A.

2009-07-01

As part of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP; http:// www.htap.org) project, we analyze results from 15 global and 1 hemispheric chemical transport models and compare these to Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) observations in the United States (US) for 2001. Using the policy-relevant maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O3) statistic, the multi-model ensemble represents the observations well (mean r2=0.57, ensemble bias = +4.1 ppbv for all US regions and all seasons) despite a wide range in the individual model results. Correlations are strongest in the northeastern US during spring and fall (r2=0.68); and weakest in the midwestern US in summer (r2=0.46). However, large positive mean biases exist during summer for all eastern US regions, ranging from 10-20 ppbv, and a smaller negative bias is present in the western US during spring (~3 ppbv). In nearly all other regions and seasons, the biases of the model ensemble simulations are ≤5 ppbv. Sensitivity simulations in which anthropogenic O3-precursor emissions (NOx + NMVOC + CO + aerosols) were decreased by 20% in four source regions: East Asia (EA), South Asia (SA), Europe (EU) and North America (NA) show that the greatest response of MDA8 O3 to the summed foreign emissions reductions occurs during spring in the West (0.9 ppbv reduction due to 20% emissions reductions from EA + SA + EU). East Asia is the largest contributor to MDA8 O3 at all ranges of the O3 distribution for most regions (typically ~0.45 ppbv) followed closely by Europe. The exception is in the northeastern US where emissions reductions in EU had a slightly greater influence than EA emissions, particularly in the middle of the MDA8 O3 distribution (response of ~0.35 ppbv between 35-55 ppbv). EA and EU influences are both far greater (about 4x) than that from SA in all regions and seasons. In all regions and seasons O3-precursor emissions reductions of 20% in the NA source region decrease MDA8 O3 the most - by a factor of 2 to nearly 10 relative to foreign emissions reductions. The O3 response to anthropogenic NA emissions is greatest in the eastern US during summer at the high end of the O3 distribution (5-6 ppbv for 20% reductions). While the impact of foreign emissions on surface O3 in the US is not negligible - and is of increasing concern given the recent growth in Asian emissions - domestic emissions reductions remain a far more effective means of decreasing MDA8 O3 values, particularly those above 75 ppb (the current US standard).

Estimating the health benefits from natural gas use in transport and heating in Santiago, Chile.

PubMed

Mena-Carrasco, Marcelo; Oliva, Estefania; Saide, Pablo; Spak, Scott N; de la Maza, Cristóbal; Osses, Mauricio; Tolvett, Sebastián; Campbell, J Elliott; Tsao, Tsao Es Chi-Chung; Molina, Luisa T

2012-07-01

Chilean law requires the assessment of air pollution control strategies for their costs and benefits. Here we employ an online weather and chemical transport model, WRF-Chem, and a gridded population density map, LANDSCAN, to estimate changes in fine particle pollution exposure, health benefits, and economic valuation for two emission reduction strategies based on increasing the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) in Santiago, Chile. The first scenario, switching to a CNG public transportation system, would reduce urban PM2.5 emissions by 229 t/year. The second scenario would reduce wood burning emissions by 671 t/year, with unique hourly emission reductions distributed from daily heating demand. The CNG bus scenario reduces annual PM2.5 by 0.33 μg/m³ and up to 2 μg/m³ during winter months, while the residential heating scenario reduces annual PM2.5 by 2.07 μg/m³, with peaks exceeding 8 μg/m³ during strong air pollution episodes in winter months. These ambient pollution reductions lead to 36 avoided premature mortalities for the CNG bus scenario, and 229 for the CNG heating scenario. Both policies are shown to be cost-effective ways of reducing air pollution, as they target high-emitting area pollution sources and reduce concentrations over densely populated urban areas as well as less dense areas outside the city limits. Unlike the concentration rollback methods commonly used in public policy analyses, which assume homogeneous reductions across a whole city (including homogeneous population densities), and without accounting for the seasonality of certain emissions, this approach accounts for both seasonality and diurnal emission profiles for both the transportation and residential heating sectors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of policy on greenhouse gas emissions and economics of biodiesel production.

PubMed

Olivetti, Elsa; Gülşen, Ece; Malça, João; Castanheira, Erica; Freire, Fausto; Dias, Luis; Kirchain, Randolph

2014-07-01

As an alternative transportation fuel to petrodiesel, biodiesel has been promoted within national energy portfolio targets across the world. Early estimations of low lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of biodiesel were a driver behind extensive government support in the form of financial incentives for the industry. However, studies consistently report a high degree of uncertainty in these emissions estimates, raising questions concerning the carbon benefits of biodiesel. Furthermore, the implications of feedstock blending on GHG emissions uncertainty have not been explicitly addressed despite broad practice by the industry to meet fuel quality standards and to control costs. This work investigated the impact of feedstock blending on the characteristics of biodiesel by using a chance-constrained (CC) blend optimization method. The objective of the optimization is minimization of feedstock costs subject to fuel standards and emissions constraints. Results indicate that blending can be used to manage GHG emissions uncertainty characteristics of biodiesel, and to achieve cost reductions through feedstock diversification. Simulations suggest that emissions control policies that restrict the use of certain feedstocks based on their GHG estimates overlook blending practices and benefits, increasing the cost of biodiesel. In contrast, emissions control policies which recognize the multifeedstock nature of biodiesel provide producers with feedstock selection flexibility, enabling them to manage their blend portfolios cost effectively, potentially without compromising fuel quality or emissions reductions.

Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions from 2010 to 2050. This growth is caused by increases in heating energy because the elderly generally spend more time at home, and cooling energy owing to rising temperatures. This study will be useful in the preparation of energy demand management policies and the establishment and attainability of GHG emissions reduction goals.

Designing better methane mitigation policies: the challenge of distributed small sources in the natural gas sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravikumar, Arvind P.; Brandt, Adam R.

2017-04-01

Methane—a short-lived and potent greenhouse gas—presents a unique challenge: it is emitted from a large number of highly distributed and diffuse sources. In this regard, the United States’ Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recommended periodic leak detection and repair surveys at oil and gas facilities using optical gas imaging technology. This regulation requires an operator to fix all detected leaks within a set time period. Whether such ‘find-all-fix-all’ policies are effective depends on significant uncertainties in the character of emissions. In this work, we systematically analyze the effect of facility-related and mitigation-related uncertainties on regulation effectiveness. Drawing from multiple publicly-available datasets, we find that: (1) highly-skewed leak-size distributions strongly influence emissions reduction potential; (2) variations in emissions estimates across facilities leads to large variability in mitigation effectiveness; (3) emissions reductions from optical gas imaging-based leak detection programs can range from 15% to over 70%; and (4) while implementation costs are uniformly lower than EPA estimates, benefits from saved gas are highly variable. Combining empirical evidence with model results, we propose four policy options for effective methane mitigation: performance-oriented targets for accelerated emission reductions, flexible policy mechanisms to account for regional variation, technology-agnostic regulations to encourage adoption of the most cost-effective measures, and coordination with other greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce unintended spillover effects.

Cost-effectiveness of reducing sulfur emissions from ships.

PubMed

Wang, Chengfeng; Corbett, James J; Winebrake, James J

2007-12-15

We model cost-effectiveness of control strategies for reducing SO2 emissions from U.S. foreign commerce ships traveling in existing European or hypothetical U.S. West Coast SO(x) Emission Control Areas (SECAs) under international maritime regulations. Variation among marginal costs of control for individual ships choosing between fuel-switching and aftertreatment reveals cost-saving potential of economic incentive instruments. Compared to regulations prescribing low sulfur fuels, a performance-based policy can save up to $260 million for these ships with 80% more emission reductions than required because least-cost options on some individual ships outperform standards. Optimal simulation of a market-based SO2 control policy for approximately 4,700 U.S. foreign commerce ships traveling in the SECAs in 2002 shows that SECA emissions control targets can be achieved by scrubbing exhaust gas of one out of ten ships with annual savings up to $480 million over performance-based policy. A market-based policy could save the fleet approximately $63 million annually under our best-estimate scenario. Spatial evaluation of ship emissions reductions shows that market-based instruments can reduce more SO2 closer to land while being more cost-effective for the fleet. Results suggest that combining performance requirements with market-based instruments can most effectively control SO2 emissions from ships.

Implementation Targets for the Paris Climate Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Hope, A. P.; Tribett, W. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T. P.

2016-12-01

We provide an overview of reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) needed to achieve either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Climate Agreement. We will show how much energy must be produced, either by renewables that do not emit significant levels of atmospheric GHGs or via carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) coupled to fossil fuel power plants, to meet forecast global energy demand out to 2060. These projections will be based on two modeling frameworks: our empirical model of global climate (EM-GC) and the CMIP 5 GCMs used throughout IPCC (2013). For each framework, we will show estimates of transient climate response to cumulative emission of carbon to place limits on future emission of CO2 via the combustion of fossil fuel. We will also quantify the impact of future atmospheric CH4 on achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Emissions targets in cap-and-trade : choosing reduction goals compatible with global climate stabilization

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

Among the major environmental threats facing the world today, climate change stands out as both the largest in scope and the most unique in character, in the sense that the atmosphere : truly does not recognize national boundaries when it comes to ca...

Nitrogen Saturation in Temperate Forest Ecosystems

Treesearch

John Aber; William McDowell; Knute Nadelhoffer; Alison Magill; Glenn Berntson; Mark Kamakea; Steven McNulty; William Currie; Lindsey Rustad; Ivan Fernandez

1998-01-01

Nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere due to human activity remain elevated in industrialized regions of the world and are accelerating in many developing regions (Galloway 1995). Although the deposition of sulfur has been reduced over much of the United States and Europe by aggressive environmental protection policies, current nitrogen deposition reduction targets in...

Hyperspectral and Hypertemporal Longwave Infrared Data Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeganathan, Nirmalan

The Army Research Lab conducted a persistent imaging experiment called the Spectral and Polarimetric Imagery Collection Experiment (SPICE) in 2012 and 2013 which focused on collecting and exploiting long wave infrared hyperspectral and polarimetric imagery. A part of this dataset was made for public release for research and development purposes. This thesis investigated the hyperspectral portion of this released dataset through data characterization and scene characterization of man-made and natural objects. First, the data were contrasted with MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) results and found to be comparable. Instrument noise was characterized using an in-scene black panel, and was found to be comparable with the sensor manufacturer's specication. The temporal and spatial variation of certain objects in the scene were characterized. Temporal target detection was conducted on man-made objects in the scene using three target detection algorithms: spectral angle mapper (SAM), spectral matched lter (SMF) and adaptive coherence/cosine estimator (ACE). SMF produced the best results for detecting the targets when the training and testing data originated from different time periods, with a time index percentage result of 52.9%. Unsupervised and supervised classification were conducted using spectral and temporal target signatures. Temporal target signatures produced better visual classification than spectral target signature for unsupervised classification. Supervised classification yielded better results using the spectral target signatures, with a highest weighted accuracy of 99% for 7-class reference image. Four emissivity retrieval algorithms were applied on this dataset. However, the retrieved emissivities from all four methods did not represent true material emissivity and could not be used for analysis. This spectrally and temporally rich dataset enabled to conduct analysis that was not possible with other data collections. Regarding future work, applying noise-reduction techniques before applying temperature-emissivity retrieval algorithms may produce more realistic emissivity values, which could be used for target detection and material identification.

What Can China Do? China's Best Alternative Outcome for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G. Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina; T. Aden, Nathaniel

After rapid growth in economic development and energy demand over the last three decades, China has undertaken energy efficiency improvement efforts to reduce its energy intensity under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP). Since becoming the world's largest annual CO{sub 2} emitter in 2007, China has set reduction targets for energy and carbon intensities and committed to meeting 15% of its total 2020 energy demand with non-fossil fuel. Despite having achieved important savings in 11th FYP efficiency programs, rising per capita income and the continued economic importance of trade will drive demand for transport activity and fuel use. At themore » same time, an increasingly 'electrified' economy will drive rapid power demand growth. Greater analysis is therefore needed to understand the underlying drivers, possible trajectories and mitigation potential in the growing industrial, transport and power sectors. This study uses scenario analysis to understand the likely trajectory of China's energy and carbon emissions to 2030 in light of the current and planned portfolio of programs, policies and technology development and ongoing urbanization and demographic trends. It evaluates the potential impacts of alternative transportation and power sector development using two key scenarios, Continued Improvement Scenario (CIS) and Accelerated Improvement Scenario (AIS). CIS represents the most likely path of growth based on continuation of current policies and meeting announced targets and goals, including meeting planned appliance efficiency standard revisions, fuel economy standards, and industrial targets and moderate phase-out of subcritical coal-fired generation with additional non-fossil generation. AIS represents a more aggressive trajectory of accelerated improvement in energy intensity and decarbonized power and transport sectors. A range of sensitivity analysis and power technology scenarios are tested to evaluate the impact of additional actions such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and integrated mine-mouth generation. The CIS and AIS results are also contextualized and compared to model scenarios in other published studies. The results of this study show that China's energy and CO{sub 2} emissions will not likely peak before 2030, although growth is expected to slow after 2020. Moreover, China will be able to meet its 2020 carbon intensity reduction target of 40 to 45% under both CIS and AIS, but only meet its 15% non-fossil fuel target by 2020 under AIS. Under both scenarios, efficiency remains a key resource and has the same, if not greater, mitigation potential as new technologies in transport and power sectors. In the transport sector, electrification will be closely linked the degree of decarbonization in the power sector and EV deployment has little or no impact on China's crude oil import demand. Rather, power generation improvements have the largest sector potential for overall emission mitigation while mine-mouth power generation and CCS have limited mitigation potential compared to fuel switching and efficiency improvements. Comparisons of this study's results with other published studies reveal that CIS and AIS are within the range of other national energy projections but alternative studies rely much more heavily on CCS for carbon reduction. The McKinsey study, in particular, has more optimistic assumptions for reductions in crude oil imports and coal demand in its abatement scenario and has much higher gasoline reduction potential for the same level of EV deployment. Despite these differences, this study's scenario analysis of both transport and power sectors illustrate the necessity for continued efficiency improvements and aggressive power sector decarbonization in flattening China's CO{sub 2} emissions.« less

American fuel cell market development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillis, E. A.

1992-01-01

Over the past three decades several attempts have been made to introduce fuel cells into commercial markets. The prospective users recognized the attractive features of fuel cells, however they were unwilling to pay a premium for the features other than the easily-calculated fuel cost savings. There was no accepted method for a user to calculate and the accrue the economic value of the other features. The situation is changing. The Clean Air Act signed into law by President Bush on November 15, 1990, mandates a nation wide reduction in SO 2, NO x and ozone emissions. This law affects specific utilities for SO 2 reduction, and specific regions of the country for NO x and ozone reductions — the latter affecting the utility-, industrial- and transportation-sectors in these regions. The Act does not direct how the reductions are to be achieved; but it specifically establishes a trading market for emission allowances whereby an organization that reduces emissions below its target can sell its unused allowance to another organization. In addition to the Clean Air Act, there are other environmental issues emerging such as controls on CO 2 emissions, possible expansion of the list of controlled emissions, mandated use of alternative fuels in specific transportation districts and restrictions on electrical transmission systems. All of these so-called 'environmental externalities' are now recognized as having a real cost that can be quantified, and factored in to calculations to determine the relative economic standing of various technologies. This in turn justifies a premium price for fuel cells hence the renewed interest in the technology by the utility and transportation market segments.

Mitigation of methane emissions in cities: How new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

DOE PAGES

Hopkins, Francesca M.; Ehleringer, James R.; Bush, Susan E.; ...

2016-09-10

Cities generate 70% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, a fraction that is grow-ing with global urbanization. While cities play an important role in climate change mitigation, there has been little focus on reducing urban methane (CH4) emissions. Here, we develop a conceptual framework for CH 4 mitigation in cities by describing emission processes, the role of measurements, and a need for new institutional partnerships. Urban CH 4 emissions are likely to grow with expanding use of natural gas and organic waste disposal systems in growing population centers; however, we currently lack the ability to quantify this increase. We also lackmore » systematic knowledge of the relative contribution of these distinct source sectors on emissions. We present new observations from four North American cities to demonstrate that CH4 emissions vary in magnitude and sector from city to city and hence require different mitigation strategies. Detections of fugitive emissions from these systems suggest that current mitiga- tion approaches are absent or ineffective. These findings illustrate that tackling urban CH 4 emissions will require research efforts to identify mitigation targets, develop and implement new mitigation strategies, and monitor atmospheric CH 4 levels to ensure the success of mitigation efforts. This research will require a variety of techniques to achieve these objectives and should be deployed in cities globally. In conclusion, we suggest that metropolitan scale partnerships may effectively coordinate systematic measurements and actions focused on emission reduction goals.« less

Driving forces in energy-related CO2 emissions in south and east coastal China: commonality and variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Liu, Y.; Jin, J.; Wei, T.

2015-12-01

East and south coastal China contributes to respectively about 30% and 8% of CO2 emissions in China and the world, and therefore play a critical role in achieving the national goal of emission reduction to mitigate the global warming. It also serves as a benchmark for the less developed regions of China, in terms of achieving the developed world's human development standard under lower per capita emissions. We analyze the driving forces of emissions in this region and their provincial characteristics by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method. Our findings show that emissions have been doubled during the period from 2000 to 2012, along with three and two folds increase in economy and energy consumption, respectively. This suggests a persistent lock between economic growth and emissions, even in this socioeconomically advanced region in China. Provincial difference in annual emission growth reveals three distinguished low-carbon developmental stages, owning mainly to the effectiveness of energy efficiency in reducing emission growth. This may explain why previous climate policies have aimed to reduce carbon intensity. These results indicate that targeted measures on enhancing energy efficiency in the short term and de-carbonization of both the economic and energy structure in the long term can lower the emission growth more effectively and efficiently. They also suggest that factor-driven emission reduction strategies and policies are needed in the geographically and socioeconomically similar regions.

Mitigation of methane emissions in cities: How new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, Francesca M.; Ehleringer, James R.; Bush, Susan E.; Duren, Riley M.; Miller, Charles E.; Lai, Chun-Ta; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Carranza, Valerie; Randerson, James T.

2016-09-01

Cities generate 70% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, a fraction that is growing with global urbanization. While cities play an important role in climate change mitigation, there has been little focus on reducing urban methane (CH4) emissions. Here, we develop a conceptual framework for CH4 mitigation in cities by describing emission processes, the role of measurements, and a need for new institutional partnerships. Urban CH4 emissions are likely to grow with expanding use of natural gas and organic waste disposal systems in growing population centers; however, we currently lack the ability to quantify this increase. We also lack systematic knowledge of the relative contribution of these distinct source sectors on emissions. We present new observations from four North American cities to demonstrate that CH4 emissions vary in magnitude and sector from city to city and hence require different mitigation strategies. Detections of fugitive emissions from these systems suggest that current mitigation approaches are absent or ineffective. These findings illustrate that tackling urban CH4 emissions will require research efforts to identify mitigation targets, develop and implement new mitigation strategies, and monitor atmospheric CH4 levels to ensure the success of mitigation efforts. This research will require a variety of techniques to achieve these objectives and should be deployed in cities globally. We suggest that metropolitan scale partnerships may effectively coordinate systematic measurements and actions focused on emission reduction goals.

Mitigation of methane emissions in cities: How new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hopkins, Francesca M.; Ehleringer, James R.; Bush, Susan E.

Cities generate 70% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, a fraction that is grow-ing with global urbanization. While cities play an important role in climate change mitigation, there has been little focus on reducing urban methane (CH4) emissions. Here, we develop a conceptual framework for CH 4 mitigation in cities by describing emission processes, the role of measurements, and a need for new institutional partnerships. Urban CH 4 emissions are likely to grow with expanding use of natural gas and organic waste disposal systems in growing population centers; however, we currently lack the ability to quantify this increase. We also lackmore » systematic knowledge of the relative contribution of these distinct source sectors on emissions. We present new observations from four North American cities to demonstrate that CH4 emissions vary in magnitude and sector from city to city and hence require different mitigation strategies. Detections of fugitive emissions from these systems suggest that current mitiga- tion approaches are absent or ineffective. These findings illustrate that tackling urban CH 4 emissions will require research efforts to identify mitigation targets, develop and implement new mitigation strategies, and monitor atmospheric CH 4 levels to ensure the success of mitigation efforts. This research will require a variety of techniques to achieve these objectives and should be deployed in cities globally. In conclusion, we suggest that metropolitan scale partnerships may effectively coordinate systematic measurements and actions focused on emission reduction goals.« less

A quantitative integrated assessment of pollution prevention achieved by integrated pollution prevention control licensing.

PubMed

Styles, David; O'Brien, Kieran; Jones, Michael B

2009-11-01

This paper presents an innovative, quantitative assessment of pollution avoidance attributable to environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing, using Ireland's pharmaceutical-manufacturing sector as a case study. Emissions data reported by pharmaceutical installations were aggregated into a pollution trend using an Environmental Emissions Index (EEI) based on Lifecycle Assessment methodologies. Complete sectoral emissions data from 2001 to 2007 were extrapolated back to 1995, based on available data. Production volume data were used to derive a sectoral production index, and determine 'no-improvement' emission trends, whilst questionnaire responses from 20 industry representatives were used to quantify the contribution of integrated licensing to emission avoidance relative to these trends. Between 2001 and 2007, there was a 40% absolute reduction in direct pollution from 27 core installations, and 45% pollution avoidance relative to hypothetical 'no-improvement' pollution. It was estimated that environmental regulation avoided 20% of 'no-improvement' pollution, in addition to 25% avoidance under business-as-usual. For specific emissions, avoidance ranged from 14% and 30 kt a(-1) for CO(2) to 88% and 598 t a(-1) for SO(x). Between 1995 and 2007, there was a 59% absolute reduction in direct pollution, and 76% pollution avoidance. Pollution avoidance was dominated by reductions in emissions of VOCs, SO(x) and NO(x) to air, and emissions of heavy metals to water. Pollution avoidance of 35% was attributed to integrated licensing, ranging from between 8% and 2.9 t a(-1) for phosphorus emissions to water to 49% and 3143 t a(-1) for SO(x) emissions to air. Environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing has been the major driver of substantial pollution avoidance achieved by Ireland's pharmaceutical sector - through emission limit values associated with Best Available Techniques, emissions monitoring and reporting requirements, and performance targets specified in environmental management plans. This compliant sector offers a positive, but not necessarily typical, case study of IPPC effectiveness.

Waste wood as bioenergy feedstock. Climate change impacts and related emission uncertainties from waste wood based energy systems in the UK.

PubMed

Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia

2018-04-01

Considering the urgent need to shift to low carbon energy carriers, waste wood resources could provide an alternative energy feedstock and at the same time reduce emissions from landfill. This research examines the climate change impacts and related emission uncertainties of waste wood based energy. For this, different grades of waste wood and energy application have been investigated using lifecycle assessment. Sensitivity analysis has then been applied for supply chain processes and feedstock properties for the main emission contributing categories: transport, processing, pelletizing, urea resin fraction and related N 2 O formation. The results show, depending on the waste wood grade, the conversion option, scale and the related reference case, that emission reductions of up to 91% are possible for non-treated wood waste. Compared to this, energy from treated wood waste with low contamination can achieve up to 83% emission savings, similar to untreated waste wood pellets, but in some cases emissions from waste wood based energy can exceed the ones of the fossil fuel reference - in the worst case by 126%. Emission reductions from highly contaminated feedstocks are largest when replacing electricity from large-scale coal and landfill. The highest emission uncertainties are related to the wood's resin fraction and N 2 O formation during combustion and, pelletizing. Comparing wood processing with diesel and electricity powered equipment also generated high variations in the results, while emission variations related to transport are relatively small. Using treated waste wood as a bioenergy feedstock can be a valid option to reduce emissions from energy production but this is only realisable if coal and landfill gas are replaced. To achieve meaningful emission reduction in line with national and international climate change targets, pre-treatment of waste wood would be required to reduce components that form N 2 O during the energy conversion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radio-Frequency-Controlled Urea Dosing for NH3-SCR Catalysts: NH3 Storage Influence to Catalyst Performance under Transient Conditions

PubMed Central

Dietrich, Markus; Hagen, Gunter; Reitmeier, Willibald; Burger, Katharina; Hien, Markus; Grass, Philippe; Kubinski, David; Visser, Jaco; Moos, Ralf

2017-01-01

Current developments in exhaust gas aftertreatment led to a huge mistrust in diesel driven passenger cars due to their NOx emissions being too high. The selective catalytic reduction (SCR) with ammonia (NH3) as reducing agent is the only approach today with the capability to meet upcoming emission limits. Therefore, the radio-frequency-based (RF) catalyst state determination to monitor the NH3 loading on SCR catalysts has a huge potential in emission reduction. Recent work on this topic proved the basic capability of this technique under realistic conditions on an engine test bench. In these studies, an RF system calibration for the serial type SCR catalyst Cu-SSZ-13 was developed and different approaches for a temperature dependent NH3 storage were determined. This paper continues this work and uses a fully calibrated RF-SCR system under transient conditions to compare different directly measured and controlled NH3 storage levels, and NH3 target curves. It could be clearly demonstrated that the right NH3 target curve, together with a direct control on the desired level by the RF system, is able to operate the SCR system with the maximum possible NOx conversion efficiency and without NH3 slip. PMID:29182589

Feasibility and Costs of Natural Gas as a Bridge to Deep Decarbonization in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; McJeon, H. C.; Muratori, M.; Shi, W.

2015-12-01

Achieving emissions reductions consistent with a 2 degree Celsius global warming target requires nearly complete replacement of traditional fossil fuel combustion with near-zero carbon energy technologies in the United States by 2050. There are multiple technological change pathways consistent with this deep decarbonization, including strategies that rely on renewable energy, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. The replacement of coal-fired power plants with natural gas-fired power plants has also been suggested as a bridge strategy to achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. These gas plants, however, would need to be replaced by near-zero energy technologies or retrofitted with CCS by 2050 in order to achieve longer-term targets. Here we examine the costs and feasibility of a natural gas bridge strategy. Using the Global Change Assessment (GCAM) model, we develop multiple scenarios that each meet the recent US Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to reduce GHG emissions by 26%-28% below its 2005 levels in 2025, as well as a deep decarbonization target of 80% emissions reductions below 1990 levels by 2050. We find that the gas bridge strategy requires that gas plants be retired on average 20 years earlier than their designed lifetime of 45 years, a potentially challenging outcome to achieve from a policy perspective. Using a more idealized model, we examine the net energy system costs of this gas bridge strategy compared to one in which near-zero energy technologies are deployed in the near tem. We explore the sensitivity of these cost results to four factors: the discount rate applied to future costs, the length (or start year) of the gas bridge, the relative capital cost of natural gas vs. near-zero energy technology, and the fuel price of natural gas. The discount rate and cost factors are found to be more important than the length of the bridge. However, we find an important interaction as well. At low discount rates, the gas bridge is more expensive and a shorter bridge is preferred. At high discount rates, the gas bridge is less expensive and a longer bridge is preferred. This result indicates that the valuation of future expenditures relative to present day expenditures is a major factor in determining the merits of a gas bridge strategy.

Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: a global carbon budget perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reith, Fabian; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas

2016-11-01

In this study we look beyond the previously studied effects of oceanic CO2 injections on atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs and also account for carbon cycle and climate feedbacks between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. Considering these additional feedbacks is important since backfluxes from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere in response to reducing atmospheric CO2 can further offset the targeted reduction. To quantify these dynamics we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to simulate direct injection of CO2 into the deep ocean as a means of emissions mitigation during a high CO2 emission scenario. In three sets of experiments with different injection depths, we simulate a 100-year injection period of a total of 70 GtC and follow global carbon cycle dynamics over another 900 years. In additional parameter perturbation runs, we varied the default terrestrial photosynthesis CO2 fertilization parameterization by ±50 % in order to test the sensitivity of this uncertain carbon cycle feedback to the targeted atmospheric carbon reduction through direct CO2 injections. Simulated seawater chemistry changes and marine carbon storage effectiveness are similar to previous studies. As expected, by the end of the injection period avoided emissions fall short of the targeted 70 GtC by 16-30 % as a result of carbon cycle feedbacks and backfluxes in both land and ocean reservoirs. The target emissions reduction in the parameter perturbation simulations is about 0.2 and 2 % more at the end of the injection period and about 9 % less to 1 % more at the end of the simulations when compared to the unperturbed injection runs. An unexpected feature is the effect of the model's internal variability of deep-water formation in the Southern Ocean, which, in some model runs, causes additional oceanic carbon uptake after injection termination relative to a control run without injection and therefore with slightly different atmospheric CO2 and climate. These results of a model that has very low internal climate variability illustrate that the attribution of carbon fluxes and accounting for injected CO2 may be very challenging in the real climate system with its much larger internal variability.

Coping with carbon: a near-term strategy to limit carbon dioxide emissions from power stations.

PubMed

Breeze, Paul

2008-11-13

Burning coal to generate electricity is one of the key sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions; so, targeting coal-fired power plants offers one of the easiest ways of reducing global carbon emissions. Given that the world's largest economies all rely heavily on coal for electricity production, eliminating coal combustion is not an option. Indeed, coal consumption is likely to increase over the next 20-30 years. However, the introduction of more efficient steam cycles will improve the emission performance of these plants over the short term. To achieve a reduction in carbon emissions from coal-fired plant, however, it will be necessary to develop and introduce carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Given adequate investment, these technologies should be capable of commercial development by ca 2020.

Co-benefits and trade-offs in the water-energy nexus of irrigation modernization in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremades, Roger; Rothausen, Sabrina G. S. A.; Conway, Declan; Zou, Xiaoxia; Wang, Jinxia; Li, Yu'e.

2016-05-01

There are strong interdependencies between water use in agriculture and energy consumption as water saving technologies can require increased pumping and pressurizing. The Chinese Government includes water efficiency improvement and carbon intensity reduction targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan (5YP. 2011-2015), yet the links between energy use and irrigation modernization are not always addressed in policy targets. Here we build an original model of the energy embedded in water pumping for irrigated agriculture and its related processes. The model is based on the physical processes of irrigation schemes and the implication of technological developments, comprising all processes from extraction and conveyance of water to its application in the field. The model uses data from government sources to assess policy targets for deployment of irrigation technologies, which aim to reduce water application and contribute to adaptation of Chinese agriculture to climate change. The consequences of policy targets involve co-beneficial outcomes that achieve water and energy savings, or trade-offs in which reduced water application leads to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We analyze irrigation efficiency and energy use in four significant provinces and nationally, using scenarios based on the targets of the 12th 5YP. At the national scale, we find that expansion of sprinklers and micro-irrigation as outlined in the 5YP would increase GHG emissions from agricultural water use, however, emissions decrease in those provinces with predominant groundwater use and planned expansion of low-pressure pipes. We show that the most costly technologies relate to trade-offs, while co-benefits are generally achieved with less expensive technologies. The investment cost per area of irrigation technology expansion does not greatly affect the outcome in terms of water, but in terms of energy the most expensive technologies are more energy-intensive and produce more emissions. The results show that water supply configuration (proportion of surface to groundwater) largely determines the potential energy savings from reductions in water application. The paper examines the importance of fertigation and highlights briefly some policy implications.

Cutting pollution loads in the Netherlands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suurland, J.

Environmental policy in the Netherlands is based on the view that highly industrialized and affluent nations should take the lead in working toward sustainable development. Under the broad focus of the National Environmental Policy Plan, the Dutch government is using a variety of voluntary and command-and-control schemes to reduce pollution loads in the Netherlands to between 70 and 90 percent of 1985 levels by 2010. Interim targets for 2000 require emissions reductions of between 50 and 70 percent, relative to 1985 levels. Central to achieving those goals is the target group approach,'' which will be used to achieve emissions reductionsmore » and resource efficiency in the subsectors of industry, agriculture, energy conversion, building and construction, traffic and transport, waste management services, and consumerism.« less

Demonstration of a 13 keV Kr K-shell X-Ray Source at the National Ignition Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fournier, K. B.; May, M. J.; Colvin, J. D.; Barrios, M. A.; Patterson, J. R.; Regan, S. P.

2013-10-01

We report 3% conversion efficiency of laser energy into Kr K-shell (~13 keV) radiation, consistent with theoretical predictions. This is ~10 × greater than previous work. The emission was produced from a 4.1 mm diameter, 4 mm tall gas pipe target filled with 1.2 or 1.5 atm of Kr gas. 160 of the NIF laser beams deposited ~700 kJ of 3 ω light into the target in a ~140 TW, 5.0 ns duration square pulse. This laser configuration sufficiently heated the targets to optimize the K-shell x-ray emission. The Dante diagnostics measured ~5 TW into 4 π solid angle of >=12 keV x rays for ~4 ns, which includes both continuum emission and flux in the Kr Heα line at 13 keV. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. This work was supported by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency under the intera- gency agreements 10027-1420 and 10027-6167.

Role of natural gas in meeting an electric sector emissions ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

With advances in natural gas extraction technologies, there is an increase in availability of domestic natural gas, and natural gas is gaining a larger share of use as a fuel in electricity production. At the power plant, natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel than coal, but uncertainties exist in the amount of methane leakage occurring upstream in the extraction and production of natural gas. At high leakage levels, these methane emissions could outweigh the benefits of switching from coal to natural gas. This analysis uses the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of the U.S. energy system over a series of model runs in which the power sector is asked to meet a specific CO2 reduction target and the availability of natural gas changes. Scenarios are run with a range of upstream methane emission leakage rates from natural gas production. While the total CO2 emissions are reduced in most scenarios, total greenhouse gas emissions show an increase or no change when both natural gas availability and methane emissions from natural gas production are high. Article presents summary of results from an analyses of natural gas resource availability and power sector emissions reduction strategies under different estimates of methane leakage rates during natural gas extraction and production. This was study was undertaken as part of the Energy Modeling Forum Study #31:

Assessment of air quality and climate co-benefits of decarbonisation of the UK energy system using remote sensing and model simulations - the case for prioritizing end uses in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobral Mourao, Zenaida; Konadu, Daniel Dennis; Damoah, Richard; Li, Pei-hao

2017-04-01

The UK has a binding obligation to reduce GHG emission by 80% (based on 1990 levels) by 2050. Meeting this target requires extensive decarbonisation of the UK energy system. Different pathways that achieve this target at the lowest system costs are being explored at different levels of policy and decisions on future energy infrastructure. Whilst benefits of decarbonisation are mainly focused on the impacts on climate change, there are other potential environmental and health impacts such as air-quality. In particular, a decrease in fossil fuel use by directly substituting current systems with low-carbon technologies could lead to significant reductions in the concentrations of SO2, NOX, CO and other atmospheric pollutants. So far, the proposed decarbonisation pathways tend to target the electricity sector first, followed by a transition in transport and heating technologies and use. However, the spatial dimension of where short term changes in the energy sector occur in relation to high density population areas is not taken into account when defining the energy transition strategies. This may lead to limited short-term improvements in air quality within urban areas, where use of fossil fuels for heating and transport is the main contribution to overall atmospheric pollutant levels. It is therefore imperative to explore decarbonisation strategies that prioritise transition in sectors of the energy system that produce immediate improvements in air quality in key regions of the UK. This study aims to use a combination of Remote Sensing observations and atmospheric chemistry/transport modelling approaches to estimate and map the impact on NOx of the traditional approach of decarbonising electricity first compared to a slower transition in the electricity sector, but faster change in the transport sector. This is done by generating a set of alternative energy system pathways with a higher share of zero emissions vehicles in 2030 than the energy system optimization model would choose if the only goal was the 80% GHG emissions reduction. Our overarching goal is to provide an additional standard to compare future energy system pathways beyond the traditional metrics of cost and GHG emissions reductions.

Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

PubMed

Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

2016-09-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Dynamic analysis of the urban-based low-carbon policy using system dynamics: Focused on housing and green space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Taehoon; Kim, Jimin; Koo, Choongwan; Jeong, Kwangbok

2015-02-01

To systematically manage the energy consumption of existing buildings, the government has to enforce greenhouse gas reduction policies. However, most of the policies are not properly executed because they do not consider various factors from the urban level perspective. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct a dynamic analysis of an urban-based low-carbon policy using system dynamics, with a specific focus on housing and green space. This study was conducted in the following steps: (i) establishing the variables of urban-based greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions; (ii) creating a stock/flow diagram of urban-based GHGs emissions; (iii) conducting an information analysis using the system dynamics; and (iv) proposing the urban-based low-carbon policy. If a combined energy policy that uses the housing sector (30%) and the green space sector (30%) at the same time is implemented, 2020 CO2 emissions will be 7.23 million tons (i.e., 30.48% below 2020 business-as-usual), achieving the national carbon emissions reduction target (26.9%). The results of this study could contribute to managing and improving the fundamentals of the urban-based low-carbon policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Radical dematerialization and degrowth.

PubMed

Kallis, Giorgos

2017-06-13

The emission targets agreed in Paris require a radical reduction of material extraction, use and disposal. The core claim of this article is that a radical dematerialization can only be part and parcel of degrowth. Given that capitalist economies are designed to grow, this raises the question of whether, and under what circumstances, the inevitable 'degrowth' can become socially sustainable. Three economic policies are discussed in this direction: work-sharing, green taxes and public money.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Radical dematerialization and degrowth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallis, Giorgos

2017-05-01

The emission targets agreed in Paris require a radical reduction of material extraction, use and disposal. The core claim of this article is that a radical dematerialization can only be part and parcel of degrowth. Given that capitalist economies are designed to grow, this raises the question of whether, and under what circumstances, the inevitable `degrowth' can become socially sustainable. Three economic policies are discussed in this direction: work-sharing, green taxes and public money. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Carbon dioxide emissions and the overshoot ratio change resulting from the implementation of 2nd Energy Master Plan in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, M. J.; Kim, Y. P.

2015-12-01

The direction of the energy policies of the country is important in the projection of environmental impacts of the country. The greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission of the energy sector in South Korea is very huge, about 600 MtCO2e in 2011. Also the carbon footprint due to the energy consumption contributes to the ecological footprint is also large, more than 60%. Based on the official plans (the national greenhouse gases emission reduction target for 2030 (GHG target for 2030) and the 2nd Energy Master Plan (2nd EMP)), several scenarios were proposed and the sensitivity of the GHG emission amount and 'overshoot ratio' which is the ratio of ecological footprint to biocapacity were estimated. It was found that to meet the GHG target for 2030 the ratio of non-emission energy for power generation should be over 71% which would be very difficult. We also found that the overshoot ratio would increase from 5.9 in 2009 to 7.6 in 2035. Thus, additional efforts are required to reduce the environmental burdens in addition to optimize the power mix configuration. One example is the conversion efficiency in power generation. If the conversion efficiency in power generation rises up 50% from the current level, 40%, the energy demand and resultant carbon dioxide emissions would decrease about 10%. Also the influence on the environment through changes in consumption behavior, for example, the diet choice is expected to be meaningful.

Essays on alternative energy policies affecting the US transportation sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Rear, Eric G.

This dissertation encompasses three essays evaluating the impacts of different policies targeting the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, fuel demands, etc. of the transportation sector. Though there are some similarities across the three chapters, each essay stands alone as an independent work. The 2010 US EPA MARKAL model is used in each essay to evaluate policy effects. Essay 1 focuses on the recent increases in Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, and the implications of a "rebound effect." These increases are compared to a carbon tax generating similar reductions in system-wide emissions. As anticipated, the largest reductions in fuel use by light-duty vehicles (LDV) and emissions are achieved under CAFE. Consideration of the rebound effect does little to distort CAFE benefits. Our work validates many economists' belief that a carbon tax is a more efficient approach. However, because the tax takes advantage of cheaper abatement opportunities in other sectors, reductions in transportation emissions will be much lower than what we observe with CAFE. Essay 2 compares CAFE increases with what some economists suggest would be a much more "efficient" alternative -- a system-wide oil tax internalizing some environmental externalities. Because oil taxes are likely to be implemented in addition to CAFE standards, we consider a combined policy case reflecting this. Our supplementary analysis approximates the appropriate tax rates to produce similar reductions in oil demands as CAFE (CAFE-equivalent tax rates). We discover that taxes result in greater and more cost-effective reductions in system-wide emissions and net oil imports than CAFE. The current fuel tax system is compared to three versions of a national vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax charged to all LDVs in Essay 3. VMT taxes directly charge motorists for each mile driven and help to correct the problem of eroding tax revenues given the failure of today's fuel taxes to adjust with inflation. Results suggest that VMT taxes generate more revenue than our existing fuel tax structure, but do so at the expense of the LDV fleet becoming less fuel-inefficient. If stringent enough, VMT taxes can lead to some rather noticeable reductions in miles driven, fuel use, and emissions.

Current and future greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation in China: implications for electric vehicles.

PubMed

Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian; Wallington, Timothy J

2014-06-17

China's oil imports and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown rapidly over the past decade. Addressing energy security and GHG emissions is a national priority. Replacing conventional vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs) offers a potential solution to both issues. While the reduction in petroleum use and hence the energy security benefits of switching to EVs are obvious, the GHG benefits are less obvious. We examine the current Chinese electric grid and its evolution and discuss the implications for EVs. China's electric grid will be dominated by coal for the next few decades. In 2015 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, EVs will need to use less than 14, 19, and 23 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 183 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. In 2020, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou EVs will need to use less than 13, 18, and 20 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 137 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. EVs currently demonstrated in China use 24-32 kWh/100 km. Electrification will reduce petroleum imports; however, it will be very challenging for EVs to contribute to government targets for GHGs emissions reduction.

Reduction of renal uptake of 111In-DOTA-labeled and A700-labeled RAFT-RGD during integrin αvβ3 targeting using single photon emission computed tomography and optical imaging.

PubMed

Briat, Arnaud; Wenk, Christiane H F; Ahmadi, Mitra; Claron, Michael; Boturyn, Didier; Josserand, Véronique; Dumy, Pascal; Fagret, Daniel; Coll, Jean-Luc; Ghezzi, Catherine; Sancey, Lucie; Vuillez, Jean-Philippe

2012-06-01

Integrin α(v)β(3) expression is upregulated during tumor growth and invasion in newly formed endothelial cells in tumor neovasculature and in some tumor cells. A tetrameric RGD-based peptide, regioselectively addressable functionalized template-(cyclo-[RGDfK])4 (RAFT-RGD), specifically targets integrin α(v)β(3) in vitro and in vivo. When labeled with indium-111, the RAFT-RGD is partially reabsorbed and trapped in the kidneys, limiting its use for further internal targeted radiotherapy and imaging investigations. We studied the effect of Gelofusine on RAFT-RGD renal retention in tumor-bearing mice. Mice were imaged using single photon emission computed tomography and optical imaging 1 and 24 h following tracer injection. Distribution of RAFT-RGD was further investigated by tissue removal and direct counting of the tracer. Kidney sections were analyzed by confocal microscopy. Gelofusine significantly induced a >50% reduction of the renal reabsorption of (111)In-DOTA-RAFT-RGD and A700-RAFT-RGD, without affecting tumor uptake. Injection of Gelofusine significantly reduced the renal retention of labeled RAFT-RGD, while increasing the tumor over healthy tissue ratio. These results will lead to the development of future therapeutic approaches. © 2012 Japanese Cancer Association.

Effects of After-Treatment Control Technologies on Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preble, C.; Dallmann, T. R.; Kreisberg, N. M.; Hering, S. V.; Harley, R.; Kirchstetter, T.

2015-12-01

Diesel engines are major emitters of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and the black carbon (BC) fraction of particulate matter (PM). Diesel particle filter (DPF) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) emission control systems that target exhaust PM and NOx have recently become standard on new heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDT). There is concern that DPFs may increase ultrafine particle (UFP) and total particle number (PN) emissions while reducing PM mass emissions. Also, the deliberate catalytic oxidation of engine-out NO to NO2 in continuously regenerating DPFs may lead to increased tailpipe emission of NO2 and near-roadway concentrations that exceed the 1-hr national ambient air quality standard. Increased NO2 emissions can also promote formation of ozone and secondary PM. We report results from ongoing on-road studies of HDDT emissions at the Port of Oakland and the Caldecott Tunnel in California's San Francisco Bay Area. Emission factors (g pollutant per kg diesel) were linked via recorded license plates to each truck's engine model year and installed emission controls. At both sites, DPF use significantly increased the NO2/NOx emission ratio. DPFs also significantly increased NO2 emissions when installed as retrofits on older trucks with higher baseline NOx emissions. While SCR systems on new trucks effectively reduce total NOx emissions and mitigate these undesirable DPF-related NO2 emissions, they also lead to significant emission of N2O, a potent greenhouse gas. When expressed on a CO2-equivalent basis, the N2O emissions increase offsets the fuel economy gain (i.e., the CO2 emission reduction) associated with SCR use. At the Port, average NOx, BC and PN emission factors from new trucks equipped with DPF and SCR were 69 ± 15%, 92 ± 32% and 66 ± 35% lower, respectively, than modern trucks without these emission controls. In contrast, at the Tunnel, PN emissions from older trucks retrofit with DPFs were ~2 times greater than modern trucks without DPFs. The difference could be related to engine temperature, with highway operation producing greater exhaust temperatures that promote UFP nucleation. These studies indicate that DPF and SCR use can mitigate air quality and climate impacts of diesel truck emissions through reductions in BC and NOx. However, increased emissions of N2O, NO2 and PN may offset some of the benefits.

A methodology to link national and local information for spatial targeting of ammonia mitigation efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, E. J.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Dore, A. J.; Sutton, M. A.; Dragosits, U.

2017-09-01

The effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are evident in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide, with eutrophication and acidification leading to significant changes in species composition. Substantial reductions in N deposition from nitrogen oxides emissions have been achieved in recent decades. By contrast, ammonia (NH3) emissions from agriculture have not decreased substantially and are typically highly spatially variable, making efficient mitigation challenging. One solution is to target NH3 mitigation measures spatially in source landscapes to maximize the benefits for nature conservation. The paper develops an approach to link national scale data and detailed local data to help identify suitable measures for spatial targeting of local sources near designated Special Areas of Conservation (SACs). The methodology combines high-resolution national data on emissions, deposition and source attribution with local data on agricultural management and site conditions. Application of the methodology for the full set of 240 SACs in England found that agriculture contributes ∼45 % of total N deposition. Activities associated with cattle farming represented 54 % of agricultural NH3 emissions within 2 km of the SACs, making them a major contributor to local N deposition, followed by mineral fertiliser application (21 %). Incorporation of local information on agricultural management practices at seven example SACs provided the means to correct outcomes compared with national-scale emission factors. The outcomes show how national scale datasets can provide information on N deposition threats at landscape to national scales, while local-scale information helps to understand the feasibility of mitigation measures, including the impact of detailed spatial targeting on N deposition rates to designated sites.

Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

PubMed

Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

2014-01-01

An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. © 2013 SETAC.

Socioeconomic drivers of FFCO2 emissions in the LA Basin: Analysis of the Hestia version 2.0 results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Keeffe, D.; Gurney, K. R.; Liang, J.; Patarasuk, R.; Huang, J.; Hutchins, M.

2016-12-01

Urban landscapes are currently home to over 50% of the world's population, a number that is projected to continue to rise for the rest of this century. Many cities are now actively developing their own climate change policies that are independent of the nation state. The Los Angeles metropolitan area is the most populous region in California with 12,872,808 residents (census 2010). In addition to California's Assembly Bill 32 (2006) which mandates a statewide reduction of GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, the city of Los Angeles released its sustainability pLAn (2015) which sets out to achieve a cleaner environment, a stronger economy, and a commitment to equity through 14 specific target areas. These include reducing Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2035 from a 2008 baseline, and improving air quality. Through sectoral regression analysis of the bottom-up Hestia FFCO2 emissions data product version 2.0, this study provides novel, spatially explicit and policy relevant results that will enable the targeted use of resources to reduce GHG and improve air quality at strategic intervention points. The study incorporates socio-economic census data along with the emissions characteristics of Hestia to analyze the dominant drivers of FFCO2 emissions in the residential, commercial and transportation sectors. In particular, building and road types and densities, population, race, income, education characteristics and hotspot analysis. In addition to scope 1 emission dynamics, we also analyze electricity consumption emissions at the demand-side (scope 2). This study will provide stakeholders and policy makers with clear and easily digestible results that will enable efficient, targeted policy options for the city of Los Angeles in achieving its ambitious sustainability goals.

Regional sulfur dioxide emissions: shall we achieve the goal?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, X.; Shi, L.; Wang, M.; Wang, JY

2017-01-01

Although economic growth is slowing down in the new normal period, air pollution is still a very serious problem in China. The 15% binding goal of sulfur dioxide emission reduction from 2016 to 2020, as stipulated in the 13th Five-Year Plan, has been an ambitious target for the Chinese government. This paper studies the synthetic evaluation and forecasting analysis of sulfur dioxide in China by means of a “grey model” approach combined with the grey relational analysis methods, with the panel data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2015. Grey analysis used to analyse a system with imperfect information, such that a variety of available solutions is reviewed, and the optimal solution is identified. Some encouraging results show that national emissions and a majority of provinces will achieve the target. Over time, the gap of regional differences is rapidly closing. According to the results of grey relational analysis, we find industrial structure and energy consumption have a more significant impact on sulfur dioxide emissions than GDP. Atmospheric treatment investment and environmental protection manpower play a more important role in emissions variation. Based on the findings, we should distinguish different factors and take different measures to protect the environment.

Policy suggestions to carry out the research on the standards of greenhouse gas emission allowances in key industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Liu, Mei; Zong, Jianfang; Guo, Huiting; Sun, Liang

2018-05-01

On the basis of summarizing and combing the functions and effects of the long-term implementation of the serial standards on the limitation of energy consumption per unit product in China, this paper focuses on the analysis of the practical demands of the green house gas emission allowances for key industrial enterprises, and puts forward the suggestions on the formulation of relevant standards. The differences and connections between the present standards of the energy consumption per unit product and future standards of greenhouse gas emission allowances in the key industries are discussed. The proposal is provided to the administrations with helpful guidelines and promotes enterprises to establish the clearer GHG emission reduction strategies and to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These suggestions will provide guarantee for realizing the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China.

Changing the renewable fuel standard to a renewable material standard: bioethylene case study.

PubMed

Posen, I Daniel; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Azevedo, Inês L

2015-01-06

The narrow scope of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS2) is a missed opportunity to spur a wider range of biomass use. This is especially relevant as RFS2 targets are being missed due to demand-side limitations for ethanol consumption. This paper examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of a more flexible policy based on RFS2, which includes credits for chemical use of bioethanol (to produce bioethylene). A Monte Carlo simulation is employed to estimate the life-cycle GHG emissions of conventional low-density polyethylene (LDPE), made from natural gas derived ethane (mean: 1.8 kg CO2e/kg LDPE). The life-cycle GHG emissions from bioethanol and bio-LDPE are examined for three biomass feedstocks: U.S. corn (mean: 97g CO2e/MJ and 2.6 kg CO2e/kg LDPE), U.S. switchgrass (mean: -18g CO2e/MJ and -2.9 kg CO2e/kg LDPE), and Brazilian sugar cane (mean: 33g CO2e/MJ and -1.3 kg CO2e/kg LDPE); bioproduct and fossil-product emissions are compared. Results suggest that neither corn product (bioethanol or bio-LDPE) can meet regulatory GHG targets, while switchgrass and sugar cane ethanol and bio-LDPE likely do. For U.S. production, bioethanol achieves slightly greater GHG reductions than bio-LDPE. For imported Brazilian products, bio-LDPE achieves greater GHG reductions than bioethanol. An expanded policy that includes bio-LDPE provides added flexibility without compromising GHG targets.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs),more » demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.« less

The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wynes, Seth; Nicholas, Kimberly A.

2017-07-01

Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent (tCO2e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO2e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO2e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO2e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.

Co-control of local air pollutants and CO2 in the Chinese iron and steel industry.

PubMed

Mao, Xianqiang; Zeng, An; Hu, Tao; Zhou, Ji; Xing, Youkai; Liu, Shengqiang

2013-01-01

The present study proposes an integrated multipollutant cocontrol strategy framework in the context of the Chinese iron and steel industry. The unit cost of pollutant reduction (UCPR) was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of each emission reduction measure. The marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO2 were drawn based on the UCPR and the abatement potential. Air pollutant equivalence (APeq) captures the nature of the damage value-weights of various air pollutants and acts as uniformization multiple air pollutants index. Single pollutant abatement routes designed in accordance with the corresponding reduction targets revealed that the cocontrol strategy has promising potential. Moreover, with the same reduction cost limitations as the single pollutant abatement routes, the multipollutant cocontrol routes are able to obtain more desirable pollution reduction and health benefits. Co-control strategy generally shows cost-effective advantage over single-pollutant abatement strategy. The results are robust to changing parameters according to sensitivity analysis. Co-control strategy would be an important step to achieve energy/carbon intensity targets and pollution control targets in China. Though cocontrol strategy has got some traction in policy debates, there are barriers to integrate it into policy making in the near future in China.

Developing Oxidized Nitrogen Atmospheric Deposition Source Attribution from CMAQ for Air-Water Trading for Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dennis, R. L.; Napelenok, S. L.; Linker, L. C.; Dudek, M.

2012-12-01

Estuaries are adversely impacted by excess reactive nitrogen, Nr, from many point and nonpoint sources, including atmospheric deposition to the watershed and the estuary itself as a nonpoint source. For effective mitigation, trading among sources of Nr is being considered. The Chesapeake Bay Program is working to bring air into its trading scheme, which requires some special air computations. Airsheds are much larger than watersheds; thus, wide-spread or national emissions controls are put in place to achieve major reductions in atmospheric Nr deposition. The tributary nitrogen load reductions allocated to the states to meet the TMDL target for Chesapeake Bay are large and not easy to attain via controls on water point and nonpoint sources. It would help the TMDL process to take advantage of air emissions reductions that would occur with State Implementation Plans that go beyond the national air rules put in place to help meet national ambient air quality standards. There are still incremental benefits from these local or state-level controls on atmospheric emissions. The additional air deposition reductions could then be used to offset water quality controls (air-water trading). What is needed is a source to receptor transfer function that connects air emissions from a state to deposition to a tributary. There is a special source attribution version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, CMAQ, (termed DDM-3D) that can estimate the fraction of deposition contributed by labeled emissions (labeled by source or region) to the total deposition across space. We use the CMAQ DDM-3D to estimate simplified state-level delta-emissions to delta-atmospheric-deposition transfer coefficients for each major emission source sector within a state, since local air regulations are promulgated at the state level. The CMAQ 4.7.1 calculations are performed at a 12 km grid size over the airshed domain covering Chesapeake Bay for 2020 CAIR emissions. For results, we first present the fractional contributions of Bay state NOx emissions to the oxidized nitrogen deposition to the Chesapeake Bay watershed and the Bay. We then present example tables of the fractional contributions of Bay state NOx emissions from mobile, off road, power plant and industrial emissions to key tributaries: the Potomac, Susquehanna and James Rivers. Finally, we go through an example for a mobile source NOx reductions in Pennsylvania to show how the tributary load offset would be calculated using the factors generated by CMAQ DDM-3D.

Understanding the Uncertainties in Consequences of Climate Change for the United States Power Sector Infrastructure when Considering a Realistic Mitigation Pace and Adaptation Needs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, N. J.; Whiteford, E. J.; Jones, V.; Fritz, S. C.; Yang, H.; Appleby, P.; Bindler, R.

2014-12-01

In order to overcome the potential damages associated with climate change, a massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is necessary. Achieving these levels of emissions reductions will require dramatic changes in the U.S. electricity generating infrastructure: almost all of the fossil-generation fleet will need to be replaced with low-carbon sources and society would have to maintain a high build rate of new capacity for decades. Because the build rate of new electricity generating capacity may be limited, the timing of regulation is critical—the longer the U.S. waits to start reducing emissions, the faster the turnover in the electricity sector must occur in order to meet the same target. We investigate the relationship between climate policy timing and infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector. How long can we wait before constraints on infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector make achieving our climate goals impossible? We show that delaying climate change policy increases average construction rates by 25% to 85% and increases maximum construction rates by 50% to 300%. We also show that delaying climate policy has little effect on the age of retired plants or the stranded costs associated with premature retirement. We show that as we delay policy action, some goals won't be possible for attain. For example, unless we enable emissions reductions today, reducing cumulative emissions between now and 2040 by 50% when compared to a no-policy scenario is not possible.

Methane - quick fix or tough target? New methods to reduce emissions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nisbet, E. G.; Lowry, D.; Fisher, R. E.; Brownlow, R.

2016-12-01

Methane is a cost-effective target for greenhouse gas reduction efforts. The UK's MOYA project is designed to improve understanding of the global methane budget and to point to new methods to reduce future emissions. Since 2007, methane has been increasing rapidly: in 2014 and 2015 growth was at rates last seen in the 1980s. Unlike 20thcentury growth, primarily driven by fossil fuel emissions in northern industrial nations, isotopic evidence implies present growth is driven by tropical biogenic sources such as wetlands and agriculture. Discovering why methane is rising is important. Schaefer et al. (Science, 2016) pointed out the potential clash between methane reduction efforts and food needs of a rising, better-fed (physically larger) human population. Our own work suggests tropical wetlands are major drivers of growth, responding to weather changes since 2007, but there is no acceptable way to reduce wetland emission. Just as sea ice decline indicates Arctic warming, methane may be the most obvious tracker of climate change in the wet tropics. Technical advances in instrumentation can do much in helping cut urban and industrial methane emissions. Mobile systems can be mounted on vehicles, while drone sampling can provide a 3D view to locate sources. Urban land planning often means large but different point sources are typically clustered (e.g. landfill or sewage plant near incinerator; gas wells next to cattle). High-precision grab-sample isotopic characterisation, using Keeling plots, can separate source signals, to identify specific emitters, even where they are closely juxtaposed. Our mobile campaigns in the UK, Kuwait, Hong Kong and E. Australia show the importance of major single sources, such as abandoned old wells, pipe leaks, or unregulated landfills. If such point sources can be individually identified, even when clustered, they will allow effective reduction efforts to occur: these can be profitable and/or improve industrial safety, for example in the case of gas leaks. Fossil fuels, landfills, waste, and biomass burning emit about 200 Tg/yr, or 35-40% of global methane emissions. Using inexpensive 3D mobile surveys coupled with high-precision isotopic measurement, it should be possible to cut emissions sharply, substantially reducing the methane burden even if tropical biogenic sources increase.

Reduction of gaseous pollutant emissions from gas turbine combustors using hydrogen-enriched jet fuel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, R. M.

1976-01-01

Recent progress in an evaluation of the applicability of the hydrogen enrichment concept to achieve ultralow gaseous pollutant emission from gas turbine combustion systems is described. The target emission indexes for the program are 1.0 for oxides of nitrogen and carbon monoxide, and 0.5 for unburned hydrocarbons. The basic concept utilizes premixed molecular hydrogen, conventional jet fuel, and air to depress the lean flammability limit of the mixed fuel. This is shown to permit very lean combustion with its low NOx production while simulataneously providing an increased flame stability margin with which to maintain low CO and HC emission. Experimental emission characteristics and selected analytical results are presented for a cylindrical research combustor designed for operation with inlet-air state conditions typical for a 30:1 compression ratio, high bypass ratio, turbofan commercial engine.

In Brief: Science academies' statement on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2009-06-01

“It is essential that world leaders agree on emissions reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climate change,” national science academies from 13 countries declared in a joint statement issued on 11 June. The statement, issued by the academies of the G8 countries—including England, France, Russia, and the United States—and five other countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa), came in advance of a G8 meeting in Italy in July and prior to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations in Denmark in December. “The G8+5 should lead the transition to an energy-efficient and low-carbon world economy, and foster innovation and research and development for both mitigation and adaptation technologies,” the statement noted. The academies urged governments to agree at the UNFCCC negotiations to adopt a long-term global goal and short-term emissions reduction targets so that by 2050 global emissions would be reduced by about 50% from 1990 levels.

Waste-to-energy sector and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fotis, S.C.; Sussman, D.

The waste-to-energy sector provides one important avenue for the United States to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the significant GHG reductions capable of being achieved by the waste-to-energy (WTE) sector through avoided fossil generation and reduced municipal landfills. The paper begins with a review of the current voluntary reporting mechanism for {open_quotes}registering{close_quotes} GHG reduction credits under section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. The paper then provides an overview of possible emerging international and domestic trends that could ultimately lead to mandatory targets and timetables for GHG mitigation in themore » United States and other countries. The paper ends with an analysis of the GHG benefits achievable by the WTE sector, based on the section 1605(b) report filed by the Integrated Waste Services Association IWSA on the GHG emissions avoided for year 1995.« less

[Reduction of meat consumption and greenhouse gas emissions associated with health benefits in Italy].

PubMed

Farchi, Sara; Lapucci, Enrica; Michelozzi, Paola

2015-01-01

the reduction in red meat consumption has been proposed as one of the climate change mitigation policies associated to health benefits. In the developed world, red meat consumption is above the recommended intake level. the aim is to evaluate health benefits, in term of mortality decline, associated to different bovine meat consumption reduction scenarios and the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. meat consumption in Italy has been estimated using the Italian National Food Consumption Survey INRAN-SCAI (2005-2006) and the Multipurpose survey on household (2012) of the Italian National Institute for Statistics. Colorectal cancer and stoke mortality data are derived from the national survey on causes of death in 2012. Bovine meat consumption risk function has been retrieved from systematic literature reviews. Mean meat consumption in Italy is equal to 770 grams/week; gender and geographical variations exist: 69 per cent of the adult population are habitual bovine meat consumers; males have an average intake of over 400 grams/week in all areas of Italy (with the exception of the South), while females have lower intakes (360 grams per week), with higher consumption in the North-West (427 gr) and lower in the South of Italy. Four scenarios of reduction of bovine meat consumption (20%, 40%, 50% e 70%, respectively) have been evaluated and the number of avoidable deaths by gender and area of residence have been estimated. GHG emissions attributed to bovine meat adult consumption have been estimated to be to 10 gigagrams CO2-eq. from low to high reduction scenario, the percentage of avoidable deaths ranged from 2.1% to 6.5% for colorectal cancer and from 1.6% to 5.6% for stroke. Health benefits were greatest for males and for people living in the North-Western regions of Italy. in Italy, in order to adhere to bovine meat consumption recommendations and to respect EU GHG emission reduction targets, scenarios between 50% and 70% need to be adopted.

Estimating litter carbon stocks on forest land in the United States

Treesearch

Grant M. Domke; Charles H. (Hobie) Perry; Brian F. Walters; Christopher W. Woodall; Matthew B. Russell; James E. Smith

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems are the largest terrestrial carbon sink on earth, withmore than half of their net primary productionmoving to the soil via the decomposition of litter biomass. Therefore, changes in the litter carbon (C) pool have important implications for global carbon budgets and carbon emissions reduction targets and negotiations. Litter accounts for an estimated...

Strategic responses to CO2 emission reduction targets drive shift in U.S. electric sector water use

EPA Science Inventory

The reliance of the U.S. electric sector on water makes this sector vulnerable to climate change and variability. We use the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to investigate changes in U.S. electric sector water withdrawal and consumption through 2055 under alternative energy system-wide CO2...

Tropospheric ozone using an emission tagging technique in the CAM-Chem and WRF-Chem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupascu, A.; Coates, J.; Zhu, S.; Butler, T. M.

2017-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is a short-lived climate forcing pollutant. High concentration of ozone can affect human health (cardiorespiratory and increased mortality due to long-term exposure), and also it damages crops. Attributing ozone concentrations to the contributions from different sources would indicate the effects of locally emitted or transported precursors on ozone levels in specific regions. This information could be used as an important component of the design of emissions reduction strategies by indicating which emission sources could be targeted for effective reductions, thus reducing the burden of ozone pollution. Using a "tagging" approach within the CAM-Chem (global) and WRF-Chem (regional) models, we can quantify the contribution of individual emission of NOx and VOC precursors on air quality. Hence, when precursor emissions of NOx are tagged, we have seen that the largest contributors on ozone levels are the anthropogenic sources, while in the case of precursor emissions of VOCs, the biogenic sources and methane account for more than 50% of ozone levels. Further, we have extended the NOx tagging method in order to investigate continental source region contributions to concentrations of ozone over various receptor regions over the globe, with a zoom over Europe. In general, summertime maximum ozone in most receptor regions is largely attributable to local emissions of anthropogenic NOx and biogenic VOC. During the rest of the year, especially during springtime, ozone in most receptor regions shows stronger influences from anthropogenic emissions of NOx and VOC in remote source regions.

Analysis of Costs and Time Frame for Reducing CO2 Emissions by 70% in the U.S. Auto and Energy Sectors by 2050.

PubMed

Supekar, Sarang D; Skerlos, Steven J

2017-10-03

Using a least-cost optimization framework, it is shown that unless emissions reductions beyond those already in place begin at the latest by 2025 (±2 years) for the U.S. automotive sector, and by 2026 (-3 years) for the U.S. electric sector, 2050 targets to achieve necessary within-sector preventative CO 2 emissions reductions of 70% or more relative to 2010 will be infeasible. The analysis finds no evidence to justify delaying climate action in the name of reducing technological costs. Even without considering social and environmental damage costs, delaying aggressive climate action does not reduce CO 2 abatement costs even under the most optimistic trajectories for improvements in fuel efficiencies, demand, and technology costs in the U.S. auto and electric sectors. In fact, the abatement cost for both sectors is found to increase sharply with every year of delay beyond 2020. When further considering reasonable limits to technology turnover, retirements, and new capacity additions, these costs would be higher, and the feasible time frame for initiating successful climate action on the 70% by 2050 target would be shorter, perhaps having passed already. The analysis also reveals that optimistic business-as-usual scenarios in the U.S. will, conservatively, release 79-108 billion metric tons of CO 2 . This could represent up to 13% of humanity's remaining carbon budget through 2050.

Building Low Carbon Cities: Framework to Design and Evaluate Alternative Technologies and Policies for Land Use Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, S.; Hamano, H.; Fujita, T.; Hori, H.

2008-12-01

Annex I parties of the Kyoto Protocol are facing even greater pressures to fulfill their commitment for GHG reduction as they enter the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol 2008-2012. In Japanese context, one such challenge is to reduce CO2 emissions from the household and business sectors because CO2 emissions from the both sectors has increased by 12% and 20% respectively since 1990 while the industry has achieved 21% of CO2 emissions reduction. Land use planning, which, either directly or indirectly, controls appropriate uses for land within jurisdictions, might play very important roles to deal with CO2 reductions from the household and business sectors. In this research, aiming at effective reductions of air- conditioning energy consumption and resultant CO2 emissions from the household and business sectors, the framework to design and evaluate land use planning was developed. The design and evaluation processes embraced in this framework consist of GIS database, technology and policy inventory for planning, one- dimensional urban canopy model which evaluate urban climate at neighborhood level and air-conditioning load calculation procedure. The GIS database provides spatial information of target areas such as land use, building use and road networks, which, then, helps design alternative land use plans. The technology and policy inventory includes various planning options ranging from those for land over control to those for building energy control, which, combined with the GIS database, serves for planning process. The urban canopy model derives vertical profiles of local climate, such as temperature and humidity, using the information of land use, building height and so on, aided by the GIS database. Vertical profiles of the urban climate are then utilized to derive air-conditioning load and associated CO2 emissions for each building located in target areas. The framework developed was applied to the coastal district of Kawasaki, Japan, with an area of 40 square kilometers, for August 2006, to explore effective combinations of technologies and policies for land use planning. Six alternative land use policies were designed, including BaU in which current land use continues, and were, then, evaluated to seek more effective alternatives. Our findings suggested that about 541 MWh power and 204 tons of CO2 emission be saved at maximum by greening building sites, introducing water retentive pavement and installing energy-saving technologies for buildings in an appropriate manner.

Economics of lifecycle analysis and greenhouse gas regulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Deepak

2009-11-01

Interest in alternatives to fossil fuels has risen significantly during the current decade. Although a variety of different alternative technologies have experienced rapid growth, biofuels have emerged as the main alternative transportation fuel. Energy policies in several countries envision blending biofuels with fossil fuels as the main mechanism to increase energy independence and energy security. Climate change policies in several regions are also riding on the same hope for reducing emissions from transportation. The main advantage of biofuels is that they are technically mature, cheaper to produce and more convenient to use relative to other alternative fuels. However, the impact of current biofuels on the environment and on economic welfare, is controversial. In my dissertation I focus on three topics relevant to future energy and climate policies. The first is the economics of lifecycle analysis and its application to the assessment of environmental impact of biofuel policies. The potential of biofuel for reducing greenhouse gas emissions was brought to the fore by research that relied on the methodology called lifecycle analysis (LCA). Subsequent research however showed that the traditional LCA fails to account for market-mediated effects that will arise when biofuel technologies are scaled up. These effects can increase or decrease emissions at each stage of the lifecycle. I discuss how the LCA will differ depending on the scale, a single firm versus a region and why LCA of the future should be distinguished from LCA of the past. I describe some approaches for extending the LCA methodology so that it can be applied under these different situations. The second topic is the economic impact of biofuels. Biofuels reduce the demand for oil and increase the demand for agricultural goods. To high income countries which tend to be both large importers of oil and large exporters of agricultural goods, this implies two major benefits. One of the one hand it reduces the market power of OPEC (Oil Producing and Exporting Countries), a cartel of nations which is the single largest oil exporting entity in the world, and is an entity considered unreliable. On the other hand, it reduces the demand for domestic farm subsidies. At the same crops comprise a small share of the retail price of food. As a result, the expected negative impact of biofuel was at worst a small increase in the retail price of food. However, the food price inflation in the year 2008 suggests that the negative impact on food consumers was significantly higher than expected and also outweighed the impact fuel consumers. I estimate the effect on biofuels on food and oil prices and compare them to other estimates in the literature and also relate these to prices observed in the real world. The third topic is the economics of greenhouse gas regulations of transportation fuels. Climate change policies such as United Nations' Kyoto protocol, European Union Emission Trading Scheme, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the US north-east mandate an aggregate emission target, called a cap and allow regulated entities to trade responsibilities for abatement. Furthermore, these policies have generally and sometimes exclusively targeted the electricity and industrial sector for emission reduction. However, the Low carbon fuel standard and Renewable fuel standard are two policies about to be implemented by the State of California and the US federal government, which exclusively target the transportation sector for emission reduction. Furthermore, these regulations mandate emission intensity target for fuels rather than aggregate emission reduction. I compare the cost-effectiveness of these two types of regulations, namely, aggregate emission caps versus emission intensity standards and discuss how prices, output and emissions vary between these two types of policies.

A constraint satisfaction method applied to the problem of controlling the CO2 emission in the Legal Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino; Yoneyama, Takashi

2013-11-01

Socioeconomic-driven processes such as deforestation, forest degradation, forest fires, overgrazing, overharvesting of fuelwood and slash-and-burn practices constitute the primary sources of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions in developing countries. Climate policies can induce the development of clean technology and offer incentives to accelerate reforestation. The Brazilian government has already acknowledged the urgency to invest in policies to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the Legal Brazilian Amazon (BA). In this work, we propose a scheme to estimate the required investments in clean technology and reforestation to achieve a prescribed short term target value for the atmospheric CO2 emission. Initially, a mathematical model is fitted to the available data to allow forecasting the values of the short term emissions of CO2 under a combination of investments in clean technology and reforestation. The investments to reduce the emissions of CO2 below a target value (400 million tons/year, starting at the initial value of 450) in 3 years’ time are proportional to the regional GDP. Using computer simulation it is possible to generate a range of possible investment values in clean technology and reforestation, so that the prescribed emission reduction is achieved without hindering economic growth. This strategy provides the necessary investment flexibility for the implementation of realistic climate policies.

Heating, Hydrodynamics, and Radiation From a Laser Heated Non-LTE High-Z Target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, William; Foord, M. E.; Schneider, M. B.; Barrios, M. A.; Brown, G. V.; Heeter, R. F.; Jarrott, L. C.; Liedahl, D. A.; Marley, E. V.; Mauche, C. W.; Widmann, K.

2016-10-01

We present 2D R-z simulations that model the hydrodynamics and x-ray output of a laser heated, tamped foil, using the rad-hydro code LASNEX. The foil consists of a thin (2400 A) cylindrical disk of iron/vanadium/gold that is embedded in a thicker Be tamper. The simulations utilize a non-LTE detailed configuration (DCA) model, which generates the emission spectra. Simulated pinhole images are compared with data, finding qualitative agreement with the time-history of the face-on emission profiles, and exhibiting an interesting reduction in emission size over a few ns time period. Furthermore, we find that the simulations recover similar burn through times in both the target and Be tamper as measured by a time-dependent filtered x-ray detector (DANTE). Additional results and characterization of the experimental plasma will be presented. This work performed under the auspices of U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

What strategy is needed for attaining the EU air quality regulations under future climate change scenarios? A sensitivity analysis over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Baró, R.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Lorente-Plazas, R.; García-Valero, J. A.; Hernández, Z.; Montávez, J. P.

2012-04-01

A wide number of studies show that several areas over Europe exceed some of the air quality thresholds established in the legislation. These exceedances will become more frequent under future climate change scenarios, since the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone will influence the future concentrations of atmospheric pollutants through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. In this sense, chemistry transport models (CTMs) play a key role in assessing and understanding the emissions abatement plans through the use of sensitivity analysis strategies. These sensitivity analyses characterize the change in model output due to variations in model input parameters. Since the management strategies of air pollutant emission is one of the predominant factors for controlling urban air quality, this work assesses the impact of various emission reduction scenarios in air pollution levels over Europe under two climate change scenarios. The methodology includes the use of a climate version of the meteorological model MM5 coupled with the CHIMERE chemistry transport model. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as two future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have an horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 hPa, and are driven by the global climate model ECHO-G . In order to represent the sensitivity of the chemistry and transport of aerosols, tropospheric ozone and other photochemical species, several hypothetical scenarios of emission control have been implemented to quantify the influence of diverse emission sources in the area, such as on-road traffic, port and industrial emissions, among others. The modeling strategy lies on a sensitivity analysis to determine the emission reduction and strategy needed in the target area in order to attain the standards and thresholds set in the European Directive 2008/50/EC. Results depict that the system is able to characterize the exceedances occurring in Europe, mainly related to the maximum 8h moving average exceeding the target value of 120 μg/m3, mainly over southern Europe. Also, compliance of the PM10 daily limit values (50 μg/m3) is not achieved over wide areas in Europe. The sensitivity analysis indicates that large reductions of precursors emissions are needed in all the scenarios examined for attaining the thresholds set in the European Directive. In most cases this abatement strategy is hard to take into practice (e.g. unrealistic percentage of emission reductions in on-road traffic, industry or harbor activity); however, ozone and particulate matter air pollution improve considerably in most of the scenarios included. Results also unveil the propagation of uncertainties from the meteorological projections into future air quality and claim for future studies aimed at deepening the knowledge about the parameterized processes, the definition of emissions and, last, reducing uncertainties.

Variation of ambient non-methane hydrocarbons in Beijing city in summer 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Shao, M.; Lu, S. H.; Yuan, B.; Zhao, Y.; Wang, M.; Zhang, S. Q.; Wu, D.

2010-02-01

In conjunction with hosting the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the municipal government implemented a series of stringent air quality control measures. To assess the impacts on variation of ambient non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), the whole air was sampled by canisters at one urban site and two suburban sites in Beijing, and 55 NMHC species were quantified by gas chromatography equipped with a quadrupole mass spectrometer and a flame ionization detector (GC/MSD/FID) as parts of the field Campaign for the Beijing Olympic Games Air Quality program (CareBeijing). According to the control measures, the data were presented according to four periods: 18-30 June, 8-19 July, 15-24 August (during the Olympic Games), and 6-15 September (during the Paralympic Games). Compared with the levels in June, the mixing ratios of NMHCs obtained in the Olympic and Paralympic Games periods were reduced by 35% and 25%, respectively. Source contributions were calculated using a chemical mass balance model (CMB 8.2). After implementing the control measures, emissions from target sources were obviously reduced, and reductions in vehicle exhaust could explain 48-82% of the reductions of ambient NMHCs. Reductions in emissions from gasoline evaporation, paint and solvent use, and the chemical industry contributed 9-40%, 3-24%, and 1-5%, respectively, to reductions of ambient NMHCs. Sources of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and biogenic emissions were not controlled, and contributions from these sources from July to September were stable or even higher than in June. Ozone formation potentials (OFPs) were calculated for the measured NMHCs. The total OFPs during the Olympic and Paralympic Games were reduced by 48% and 32%, respectively, compared with values in June. Reductions in the OFPs of alkenes and aromatics explained 77-92% of total OFP reductions. The alkenes and aromatics were mainly from vehicle exhausts, and reductions of vehicle exhaust gases explained 67-87% of reductions in alkenes and 38-80% of reductions in aromatics. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the air quality control measures enacted for the 2008 Olympics and indicate that controlling vehicular emissions could be the most important measure to improve air quality in Beijing.

Variation of ambient non-methane hydrocarbons in Beijing city in summer 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Shao, M.; Lu, S. H.; Yuan, B.; Zhao, Y.; Wang, M.; Zhang, S. Q.; Wu, D.

2010-07-01

In conjunction with hosting the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the municipal government implemented a series of stringent air quality control measures. To assess the impacts on variation of ambient non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), the whole air was sampled by canisters at one urban site and two suburban sites in Beijing, and 55 NMHC species were quantified by gas chromatography equipped with a quadrupole mass spectrometer and a flame ionization detector (GC/MSD/FID) as parts of the field Campaign for the Beijing Olympic Games Air Quality program (CareBeijing). According to the control measures, the data were presented according to four periods: 18-30 June, 8-19 July, 15-24 August (during the Olympic Games), and 6-15 September (during the Paralympic Games). Compared with the levels in June, the mixing ratios of NMHCs obtained in the Olympic and Paralympic Games periods were reduced by 35% and 25%, respectively. Source contributions were calculated using a chemical mass balance model (CMB 8.2). After implementing the control measures, emissions from target sources were obviously reduced, and reductions in vehicle exhaust could explain 48-82% of the reductions of ambient NMHCs. Reductions in emissions from gasoline evaporation, paint and solvent use, and the chemical industry contributed 9-40%, 3-24%, and 1-5%, respectively, to reductions of ambient NMHCs. Sources of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and biogenic emissions were not controlled, and contributions from these sources from July to September were stable or even higher than in June. Ozone formation potentials (OFPs) were calculated for the measured NMHCs. The total OFPs during the Olympic and Paralympic Games were reduced by 48% and 32%, respectively, compared with values in June. Reductions in the OFPs of alkenes and aromatics explained 77-92% of total OFP reductions. The alkenes and aromatics were mainly from vehicle exhausts, and reductions of vehicle exhaust gases explained 67-87% of reductions in alkenes and 38-80% of reductions in aromatics. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the air quality control measures enacted for the 2008 Olympics and indicate that controlling vehicular emissions could be the most important measure to improve air quality in Beijing.

500 MW demonstration of advanced wall-fired combustion techniques for the reduction of nitrogen oxide (NO{sub x}) emissions from coal fired boilers. Second quarterly technical progress report, [April--June 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-12-31

The primary goal of this project is the characterization of the low NO{sub x} combustion equipment through the collection and analysis of long-term emissions data. A target of achieving fifty percent NO{sub x} reduction using combustion modifications has been established for the project. The project provides a stepwise retrofit of an advanced overfire air (AOFA) system followed by low NO{sub x} burners (LNB). During each test phase of the project, diagnostic, performance, long-term and verification testing will be performed. These tests are used to quantify the NO{sub x} reductions of each technology and evaluate the effects of those reductions onmore » other combustion parameters such as particulate characteristics and boiler efficiency. Baseline, AOFA, and LNB without AOFA test segments have been completed. Analysis of the 94 days of LNB long-term data collected show the full-load NO{sub x} emission levels to be approximately 0.65 lb/MBtu with flyash LOI values of approximately 8 percent. Corresponding values for the AOFA configuration are 0.94 lb/MBtu and approximately 10 percent. For comparison, the long-term full-load, baseline NO{sub x} emission level was approximately 1.24 lb/MBtu at 5.2 percent LOI. Comprehensive testing of the LNB plus AOFA configuration began in May 1993 and is scheduled to end during August 1993. As of June 30, the diagnostic, performance, chemical emissions tests segments for this configuration have been conducted and 29 days of long-term, emissions data collected. Preliminary results from the May--June 1993 tests of the LNB plus AOFA system show that the full load NO{sub x} emissions are approximately 0.42 lb/MBtu with corresponding fly ash LOI values near 8 percent. This is a substantial improvement in both NO{sub x} emissions and LOI values when compared to the results obtained during the February--March 1992 abbreviated testing of this system.« less

Analysis of Carbon Policies for Electricity Networks with High Penetration of Green Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feijoo, Felipe A.

In recent decades, climate change has become one of the most crucial challenges for humanity. Climate change has a direct correlation with global warming, caused mainly by the green house gas emissions (GHG). The Environmental Protection Agency in the U.S. (EPA) attributes carbon dioxide to account for approximately 82% of the GHG emissions. Unfortunately, the energy sector is the main producer of carbon dioxide, with China and the U.S. as the highest emitters. Therefore, there is a strong (positive) correlation between energy production, global warming, and climate change. Stringent carbon emissions reduction targets have been established in order to reduce the impacts of GHG. Achieving these emissions reduction goals will require implementation of policies like as cap-and-trade and carbon taxes, together with transformation of the electricity grid into a smarter system with high green energy penetration. However, the consideration of policies solely in view of carbon emissions reduction may adversely impact other market outcomes such as electricity prices and consumption. In this dissertation, a two-layer mathematical-statistical framework is presented, that serves to develop carbon policies to reduce emissions level while minimizing the negative impacts on other market outcomes. The bottom layer of the two layer model comprises a bi-level optimization problem. The top layer comprises a statistical model and a Pareto analysis. Two related but different problems are studied under this methodology. The first problem looks into the design of cap-and-trade policies for deregulated electricity markets that satisfy the interest of different market constituents. Via the second problem, it is demonstrated how the framework can be used to obtain levels of carbon emissions reduction while minimizing the negative impact on electricity demand and maximizing green penetration from microgrids. In the aforementioned studies, forecasts for electricity prices and production cost are considered. This, this dissertation also presents anew forecast model that can be easily integrated in the two-layer framework. It is demonstrated in this dissertation that the proposed framework can be utilized by policy-makers, power companies, consumers, and market regulators in developing emissions policy decisions, bidding strategies, market regulations, and electricity dispatch strategies.

Multi-project baselines for potential clean development mechanism projects in the electricity sector in South Africa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winkler, H.; Spalding-Fecher, R.; Sathaye, J.

2002-06-26

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to ''prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'' and promote sustainable development. The Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997 and appears likely to be ratified by 2002 despite the US withdrawing, aims to provide means to achieve this objective. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of three ''flexibility mechanisms'' in the Protocol, the other two being Joint Implementation (JI) and Emissions Trading (ET). These mechanisms allow flexibility for Annex I Parties (industrialized countries) to achieve reductions by extra-territorialmore » as well as domestic activities. The underlying concept is that trade and transfer of credits will allow emissions reductions at least cost. Since the atmosphere is a global, well-mixed system, it does not matter where greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. The CDM allows Annex I Parties to meet part of their emissions reductions targets by investing in developing countries. CDM projects must also meet the sustainable development objectives of the developing country. Further criteria are that Parties must participate voluntarily, that emissions reductions are ''real, measurable and long-term'', and that they are additional to those that would have occurred anyway. The last requirement makes it essential to define an accurate baseline. The remaining parts of section 1 outline the theory of baselines, emphasizing the balance needed between environmental integrity and reducing transaction costs. Section 2 develops an approach to multi-project baseline for the South African electricity sector, comparing primarily to near future capacity, but also considering recent plants. Five potential CDM projects are briefly characterized in section 3, and compared to the baseline in section 4. Section 5 concludes with a discussion of options and choices for South Africa regarding electricity sector baselines.« less

Energy Feedback at the City-Wide Scale A comparison to building scale studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Richard Allan

Climate change is a growing concern throughout the world. In the United States, leadership has so far failed to establish targeted reductions and agreement on mitigation strategies. Despite this, many large cities are taking on the challenge of measuring their emissions, establishing targeted reductions, and defining strategies for mitigation in the form of Climate Action Plans. Reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by these cities is usually based on a one-time, annual calculation. Many studies have been conducted on the impact of providing energy use data or feedback to households, and in some cases, institutional or commercial businesses. In most of those studies, the act of providing feedback has resulted in a reduction of energy use, ranging from 2% to 15%, depending upon the features of the feedback. Many of these studies included only electric use. Studies where all energy use was reported are more accurate representations of GHG emissions. GHG emissions and energy use are not the same, depending on the fuel source and in the case of this paper, the focus is on reducing energy use. This research documents the characteristics of the feedback provided in those studies in order to determine which are most effective and should be considered for application to the community-wide scale. Eleven studies, including five primary and six secondary research papers, were reviewed and analyzed for the features of the feedback. Trends were established and evaluated with respect to their effectiveness and potential for use at the community-wide scale. This paper concludes that additional research is required to determine if the use of energy feedback at the city scale could result in savings similar to those observed at the household scale. This additional research could take advantage of the features assessed here in order to be more effective and to implement the features that are best able to scale up. Further research is needed to determine whether combining city-wide feedback with feedback for individual energy users within the city, both residential and commercial, has an even greater impact on reducing energy use and lowering GHG emissions.

The effect of carbon tax on carbon emission abatement and GDP: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao; Leung, Yee; Xu, Yuan; Yung, Linda Chor Wing

2017-10-01

Carbon tax has been advocated as an effective economic instrument for the abatement of CO2 emission by various countries, including China, the world's biggest carbon emission country. However, carbon emission abatement cannot be done while ignoring the impact on economic growth. A delicate balance needs to be achieved between the two to find an appropriate pathway for sustainable development. This paper applies a multi-objective optimization approach to analyze the impact of levying carbon tax on the energy-intensive sectors of Guangdong province in China under the constraint of emission reduction target. This approach allows us to evaluate carbon emission minimization while maximizing GDP. For policy analysis, we construct five scenarios for evaluation and optimal choice. The results of the analysis show that a lower initial carbon tax rate is not necessarily better, and that a carbon tax is an effective means to reduce CO2 emissions while maintaining a certain level of GDP growth.

Life cycle assessment of potential biojet fuel production in the United States.

PubMed

Agusdinata, Datu B; Zhao, Fu; Ileleji, Klein; DeLaurentis, Dan

2011-11-01

The objective of this paper is to reveal to what degree biobased jet fuels (biojet) can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the U.S. aviation sector. A model of the supply and demand chain of biojet involving farmers, biorefineries, airlines, and policymakers is developed by considering factors that drive the decisions of actors (i.e., decision-makers and stakeholders) in the life cycle stages. Two kinds of feedstock are considered: oil-producing feedstock (i.e., camelina and algae) and lignocellulosic biomass (i.e., corn stover, switchgrass, and short rotation woody crops). By factoring in farmer/feedstock producer and biorefinery profitability requirements and risk attitudes, land availability and suitability, as well as a time delay and technological learning factor, a more realistic estimate of the level of biojet supply and emissions reduction can be developed under different oil price assumptions. Factors that drive biojet GHG emissions and unit production costs from each feedstock are identified and quantified. Overall, this study finds that at likely adoption rates biojet alone would not be sufficient to achieve the aviation emissions reduction target. In 2050, under high oil price scenario assumption, GHG emissions can be reduced to a level ranging from 55 to 92%, with a median value of 74%, compared to the 2005 baseline level.

Refurbishment of a Victorian terraced house for energy efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitriou, Angeliki

The impacts of global warming are now obvious. The international community has committed itself to reduce CO2 emissions, the main contributor to the greenhouse effect, both at international and national levels. In the Kyoto Protocol signed in 1997, countries have committed to reduce their greenhouse gases emissions below their 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012. The UK specifically should reduce those emissions by 12.5%. Format reason, the UK has introduced a package of policies, which promote not only the use of renewable energy resources, but most importantly the reduction in energy use, with energy efficiency. Refurbishment of existing houses has and will contribute to the reduction of energy consumption. A Victorian mid-terraced house was studied in this report, and different refurbishment measures were tested, using two software programmes: TAS and SAP. The targets were to achieve certain levels of thermal comfort, to comply with the Building Regulation for building thermal elements and to achieve a high SAP rating. Then, the cost of each measure was calculated and its CO2 emissions were compared. Heat losses were mainly through the walls and roof. Roof and mainly wall refurbishment measures reduce the heating loads the most. Ground floor insulation does not contribute to the reduction of the heating loads, on the contrary it has detrimental effect in summer, where the cooling effect coming from the ground is being reduced. Window replacement achieves a very good performance in summer resulting in the reduction of overheating. Wall and roof insulation increase the SAP rating the most, between the building elements, but boiler replacement and upgrading of heating controls increase it more. According to the SAP rating, CO2 annual emissions are reduced the most by boiler replacement and then by wall and roof. The results given by the two softwares concerning which measure is more leads more to energy efficiency, are the same. Finally, if the measures which lead to the best energy performance are combined together, then the house could cut its energy bills by half, and could have 70% reduction in CO2 emissions.

Assessment of the potential REDD+ as a new international support measure for GHG reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Ahn, J.; Kim, H.

2016-12-01

As part of the Paris Agreement, the mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has high potential to simultaneously contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation through forest conservation and poverty alleviation. Some of 162 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by 189 countries representing approximately 98.8% of global GHG emissions include not only unconditional mitigation goals but also conditional goals based on the condition of the provision of international support such as finance, technology transfer and capacity building. Considering REDD+ as one of the main mechanisms to support such work, this study selected ten countries from among Korea's 24 ODA priority partners, taking into consideration their conditional INDC targets alongside sectoral quantified targets such as land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). The ten selected countries are Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Senegal, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay. Of these countries, most REDD+ projects have been conducted in Indonesia mainly due to the fact that 85% of the country's total GHG emissions are caused by forest conversion and peatland degradation. Therefore, GHG reduction rates and associated projected costs of the Indonesia's REDD+ projects were analyzed in order to offer guidance on the potential of REDD+ to contribute to other INDCs' conditional goals. The result showed that about 0.9 t CO2 ha-1 could be reduced at a cost of USD 23 per year. Applying this estimation to the Cambodian case, which has submitted a conditional INDC target of increasing its forest coverage by 60% (currently 57%) by 2030, suggests that financial support of USD 12.8 million would reduce CO2 emissions by about 5.1 million tones by increasing forest coverage. As there is currently no consideration of LULUCF in Cambodia's INDC, this result represents the opportunity for an additional contribution to achieving the country's conditional mitigation goals.

Modeling recovery of Swedish ecosystems from acidification.

PubMed

Sverdrup, Harald; Martinson, Liisa; Alveteg, Mattias; Moldan, Filip; Kronnäs, Veronika; Munthe, John

2005-02-01

Dynamic models complement existing time series of observations and static critical load calculations by simulating past and future development of chemistry in forest and lake ecosystems. They are used for dynamic assessment of the acidification and to produce target load functions, that describe what combinations of nitrogen and sulfur emission reductions are needed to achieve a chemical or biological criterion in a given target year. The Swedish approach has been to apply the dynamic acidification models MAGIC, to 133 lakes unaffected by agriculture and SAFE, to 645 productive forest sites. While the long-term goal is to protect 95% of the area, implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will protect approximately 75% of forest soils in the long term. After 2030, recovery will be very slow and involve only a limited geographical area. If there had been no emission reductions after 1980, 87% of the forest area would have unwanted soil status in the long term. In 1990, approximately 17% of all Swedish lakes unaffected by agriculture received an acidifying deposition above critical load. This fraction will decrease to 10% in 2010 after implementation of the Gothenburg protocol. The acidified lakes of Sweden will recover faster than the soils. According to the MAGIC model the median pre-industrial ANC of 107 microeq L(-1) in acid sensitive lakes decreased to about 60 microeq L(-1) at the peak of the acidification (1975-1990) and increases to 80 microeq L(-1) by 2010. Further increases were small, only 2 microeq L(-1) between 2010 and 2040. Protecting 95% of the lakes will require further emission reductions below the Gothenburg protocol levels. More than 7000 lakes are limed regularly in Sweden and it is unlikely that this practice can be discontinued in the near future without adverse effects on lake chemistry and biology.

Planning a Target Renewable Portfolio using Atmospheric Modeling and Stochastic Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, E.; Jacobson, M. Z.

2009-12-01

A number of organizations have suggested that an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 is a necessary step to mitigate climate change and that decarbonization of the electricity sector is a crucial component of any strategy to meet this target. Integration of large renewable and intermittent generators poses many new problems in power system planning. In this study, we attempt to determine an optimal portfolio of renewable resources to meet best the fluctuating California load while also meeting an 80% carbon emissions reduction requirement. A stochastic optimization scheme is proposed that is based on a simplified model of the California electricity grid. In this single-busbar power system model, the load is met with generation from wind, solar thermal, photovoltaic, hydroelectric, geothermal, and natural gas plants. Wind speeds and insolation are calculated using GATOR-GCMOM, a global-through-urban climate-weather-air pollution model. Fields were produced for California and Nevada at 21km SN by 14 km WE spatial resolution every 15 minutes for the year 2006. Load data for 2006 were obtained from the California ISO OASIS database. Maximum installed capacities for wind and solar thermal generation were determined using a GIS analysis of potential development sites throughout the state. The stochastic optimization scheme requires that power balance be achieved in a number of meteorological and load scenarios that deviate from the forecasted (or modeled) data. By adjusting the error distributions of the forecasts, the model describes how improvements in wind speed and insolation forecasting may affect the optimal renewable portfolio. Using a simple model, we describe the diversity, size, and sensitivities of a renewable portfolio that is best suited to the resources and needs of California and that contributes significantly to reduction of the state’s carbon emissions.

The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies.

PubMed

Jensen, Henning Tarp; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Smith, Richard D; Chalabi, Zaid; Dangour, Alan D; Davies, Mike; Edwards, Phil; Garnett, Tara; Givoni, Moshe; Griffiths, Ulla; Hamilton, Ian; Jarrett, James; Roberts, Ian; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodcock, James; Haines, Andy

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).

Understanding the Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Removal to Reduce the Impacts of Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, V.; Tett, S. F.; Brander, M.

2017-12-01

The current Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement suggest exceeding the emissions budgets corresponding to the below 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets. To address this the future application of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is proposed to recapture excess emissions at a later time, so keeping the total net emissions within budget. This assumes that the climate change impact of CO2 emitted now can be fully compensated by a matched CO2 removal in the future. However, the impacts from this pathway of emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture may differ from those resulting from a pathway where emissions are held within budget with no temporary overshoot. These pathway dependent impacts could give rise to different climatic and societal futures despite the total net emissions being the same. Using a low resolution fully coupled Earth System Model with an interactive carbon cycle, we present an investigation into the pathway dependence of climate change impacts and how these relate to the scale and duration of the emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture. From this we discuss the effectiveness of CDR in avoiding climate change impacts relative to more immediate emissions reductions. We consider how this relative effectiveness might be reflected in GHG accounting methods and national GHG accounts, and explore the implications for Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, where holding temperatures to the targets is recognised to "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change".

Effectiveness of national air pollution control policies on the air quality in metropolitan areas of China.

PubMed

Wang, Shuxiao; Xing, Jia; Zhao, Bin; Jang, Carey; Hao, Jiming

2014-01-01

Understanding the effectiveness of national air pollution controls is important for control policy design to improve the future air quality in China. This study evaluated the effectiveness of major national control policies implemented recently in China through a modeling analysis. The sulfur dioxide (SO2) control policy during the 11th Five Year Plan period (2006-2010) had succeeded in reducing the national SO2 emission in 2010 by 14% from its 2005 level, which correspondingly reduced ambient SO2 and sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations by 13%-15% and 8%-10% respectively over east China. The nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) control policy during the 12th Five Year Plan period (2011-2015) targets the reduction of the national NO(x) emission in 2015 by 10% on the basis of 2010. The simulation results suggest that such a reduction in NO(x) emission will reduce the ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrate (NO3(-)), 1-hr maxima ozone (O3) concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 8%, 3%-14%, 2% and 2%-4%, respectively over east China. The application of new emission standards for power plants will further reduce the NO2, NO3(-), 1-hr maxima O(3 concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 2%-4%, 1%-6%, 0-2% and 1%-2%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the inter-provincial impacts of emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, which indicated the need to implement joint regional air pollution control.

Trends in greenhouse gas emissions from consumption and production of animal food products - implications for long-term climate targets.

PubMed

Cederberg, C; Hedenus, F; Wirsenius, S; Sonesson, U

2013-02-01

To analyse trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from production and consumption of animal products in Sweden, life cycle emissions were calculated for the average production of pork, chicken meat, beef, dairy and eggs in 1990 and 2005. The calculated average emissions were used together with food consumption statistics and literature data on imported products to estimate trends in per capita emissions from animal food consumption. Total life cycle emissions from the Swedish livestock production were around 8.5 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in 1990 and emissions decreased to 7.3 Mt CO2e in 2005 (14% reduction). Around two-thirds of the emission cut was explained by more efficient production (less GHG emission per product unit) and one-third was due to a reduced animal production. The average GHG emissions per product unit until the farm-gate were reduced by 20% for dairy, 15% for pork and 23% for chicken meat, unchanged for eggs and increased by 10% for beef. A larger share of the average beef was produced from suckler cows in cow-calf systems in 2005 due to the decreasing dairy cow herd, which explains the increased emissions for the average beef in 2005. The overall emission cuts from the livestock sector were a result of several measures taken in farm production, for example increased milk yield per cow, lowered use of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers in grasslands, reduced losses of ammonia from manure and a switch to biofuels for heating in chicken houses. In contrast to production, total GHG emissions from the Swedish consumption of animal products increased by around 22% between 1990 and 2005. This was explained by strong growth in meat consumption based mainly on imports, where growth in beef consumption especially was responsible for most emission increase over the 15-year period. Swedish GHG emissions caused by consumption of animal products reached around 1.1 t CO2e per capita in 2005. The emission cuts necessary for meeting a global temperature-increase target of 2° might imply a severe constraint on the long-term global consumption of animal food. Due to the relatively limited potential for reducing food-related emissions by higher productivity and technological means, structural changes in food consumption towards less emission-intensive food might be required for meeting the 2° target.

Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

PubMed

Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Source Attribution of Tropospheric Ozone using a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coates, J.; Lupascu, A.; Butler, T. M.; Zhu, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is both a short-lived climate forcing pollutant and a radiatively active greenhouse gas. Ozone is not directly emitted into the troposphere but photochemically produced from chemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) have both natural and anthropogenic sources and may be transported away from their sources to produce ozone downwind. Also, transport of ozone from the stratosphere into the troposphere also influences tropospheric ozone levels in some regions. Attributing ozone concentrations to the contributions from different sources would indicate the effects of locally emitted or transported precursors on ozone levels in specific regions. This information could be used to inform the emission reduction strategies of ozone precursors by indicating which emission sources could be targeted for effective reductions thus reducing the burden of ozone pollution. We use a "tagging" approach within the CESM global model to attribute ozone levels to their source emissions. We use different tags to quantify the impact from natural (soils, lightning, stratospheric transport) and anthropogenic (aircraft, biomass burning) sources of NOx and VOCs (including methane) on ozone levels. These source sectors of different global regions are assigned based on the global emissions specified by HTAPv2.2. Using these results, we develop a transboundary source-receptor relationship of ozone concentration to its precursor emission regions. Additionally, the transport of ozone precursors from regional anthropogenic sources is analysed to illustrate the extent to which mitigation strategies of regional emissions aid in mitigating global ozone levels.

Litter carbon stocks in forests of the US are markedly smaller than previously reported

Treesearch

Grant Domke; Charles Perry; Brian Walters; Christopher Woodall; Matthew Russell; James Smith

2015-01-01

Forest ecosystems are the largest terrestrial carbon sink on earth with more than half of their net primary production moving to the soil via the decomposition of litter biomass. Therefore, changes in the litter carbon pool have important implications for global carbon budgets and carbon emissions reduction targets and negotiations. Litter accounts for an estimated 5...

Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices.

PubMed

Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Müller, Christoph; Weindl, Isabelle; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Wang, Xiaoxi

2017-01-03

The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread.

The effect of CO2 regulations on the cost of corn ethanol production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plevin, R. J.; Mueller, S.

2008-04-01

To explore the effect of CO2 price on the effective cost of ethanol production we have developed a model that integrates financial and emissions accounting for dry-mill corn ethanol plants. Three policy options are modeled: (1) a charge per unit of life cycle CO2 emissions, (2) a charge per unit of direct biorefinery emissions only, and (3) a low carbon fuel standard (LCFS). A CO2 charge on life cycle emissions increases production costs by between 0.005 and 0.008 l-1 per 10 Mg-1 CO2 price increment, across all modeled plant energy systems, with increases under direct emissions somewhat lower in all cases. In contrast, a LCFS increases the cost of production for selected plant energy systems only: a LCFS requiring reductions in average fuel global warming intensity (GWI) with a target of 10% below the 2005 baseline increases the production costs for coal-fired plants only. For all other plant types, the LCFS operates as a subsidy. The findings depend strongly on the magnitude of a land use change adder. Some land use change adders currently discussed in the literature will push the GWI of all modeled production systems above the LCFS target, flipping the CO2 price from a subsidy to a tax.

China's air pollution reduction efforts may result in an increase in surface ozone levels in highly polluted areas.

PubMed

Anger, Annela; Dessens, Olivier; Xi, Fengming; Barker, Terry; Wu, Rui

2016-03-01

China, as a fast growing fossil-fuel-based economy, experiences increasing levels of air pollution. To tackle air pollution, China has taken the first steps by setting emission-reduction targets for nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the 11th and 12th Five Year Plans. This paper uses two models-the Energy-Environment-Economy Model at the Global level (E3MG) and the global Chemistry Transport Model pTOMCAT-to test the effects of these policies. If the policy targets are met, then the maximum values of 32 % and 45 % reductions below 'business as usual' in the monthly mean NO x and SO2 concentrations, respectively, will be achieved in 2015. However, a decrease in NO x concentrations in some highly polluted areas of East, North-East and South-East China can lead to up to a 10% increase in the monthly mean concentrations in surface ozone in 2015. Our study demonstrates an urgent need for the more detailed analysis of the impacts and designs of air pollution reduction guidelines for China.

Assessment of emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in Indonesia and impacts of national policy for elimination of kerosene use in cooking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Permadi, Didin Agustian; Sofyan, Asep; Kim Oanh, Nguyen Thi

2017-04-01

This study presents an emission inventory (EI) for major anthropogenic sources of Indonesia in 2007 and 2010. The EI was developed using a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches with comprehensive activity data collected at the provincial/district level to produce spatially and temporally distributed emission of toxic pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs). The sources were categorized into: 1) fuel combustion in power plant, 2) industry, 3) transportation, 4) residential and commercial combustion, 5) biomass open burning, and 6) non-combustion agricultural activity and waste disposal. The best estimates of the 2010 national emissions, in Gg, of toxic pollutants were: 1014 SO2; 3323 NOx; 24,849 CO; 4077 NMVOC; 1276 NH3; 2154 PM10; 1728 PM2.5; 246 BC; 718 OC; and GHGs: 540,275 CO2; 3979 CH4 and 180 N2O. During the period from 2007 to 2010, the national emissions increased by 0.7-8.8% (0.23-2.8% per year), varied with species, with the most significant changes obtained for the biomass open burning emissions. For 2010 results, the low and high emission estimates for different species were ranging from -58% to +122% of the corresponding best estimates. The largest range (high uncertainty) was for BC due to the wide range of the limitedly available emission factors. Spatially, higher emission intensity was seen in large urban areas of Java and Sumatra Islands. Temporally, dry months of August-October had higher emissions. During the first 3 years (2007-2010) of implementation, the national policy of elimination of kerosene use in cooking had successfully replaced 4.9 Tg kerosene with 2.6 Tg LPG in 30 designated provinces. The net emission reductions of different species ranged from 48 Mg (SO2) to 7.6 Tg for CO2. The global warming potential weighted emissions from the residential cooking alone, collectively for GHGs and short-lived climate pollutants in 20-yr CO2 eq., would reduce by 2%. More significant reductions in the residential combustion emissions are expected if the solid cooking fuel could be targeted in future fuel conversion programs. The benefits to human health resulted from the emission reduction of toxic pollutants from residential cooking could be substantial and should be assessed in future studies.

Indian oil company joins efforts to reduce methane emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Mohi

The Oil and Natural Gas Corp, Ltd. (ONGC), headquartered in Dehradun, India, has joined seven U.S. and Canadian oil and natural gas companies as a partner in a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. EPA's Natural Gas STAR International Program aims to reduce methane emissions from the oil and natural gas sector while delivering more gas to markets around the world. With this partnership, ONGC agrees to implement emissions reduction practices and to submit annual reports on progress achieved; EPA agrees to assist ONGC with training technicians in new cost-effective technologies that will help achieve target emissions. The Natural Gas STAR International Program is administered under the Methane to Markets Partnership, a group of 20 countries and 600 companies across the globe that since 2004 has volunteered to cut methane emissions. More information on EPA's agreement with ONGC can be found at http://www.epa.gov/gasstar/index.htm; information about the Methane to Markets Partnership can be found at http://www.methanetomarkets.org.

A system dynamics model of China's electric power structure adjustment with constraints of PM10 emission reduction.

PubMed

Guo, Xiaopeng; Ren, Dongfang; Guo, Xiaodan

2018-06-01

Recently, Chinese state environmental protection administration has brought out several PM10 reduction policies to control the coal consumption strictly and promote the adjustment of power structure. Under this new policy environment, a suitable analysis method is required to simulate the upcoming major shift of China's electric power structure. Firstly, a complete system dynamics model is built to simulate China's evolution path of power structure with constraints of PM10 reduction considering both technical and economical factors. Secondly, scenario analyses are conducted under different clean-power capacity growth rates to seek applicable policy guidance for PM10 reduction. The results suggest the following conclusions. (1) The proportion of thermal power installed capacity will decrease to 67% in 2018 with a dropping speed, and there will be an accelerated decline in 2023-2032. (2) The system dynamics model can effectively simulate the implementation of the policy, for example, the proportion of coal consumption in the forecast model is 63.3% (the accuracy rate is 95.2%), below policy target 65% in 2017. (3) China should promote clean power generation such as nuclear power to meet PM10 reduction target.

Assessment of PM10 pollution level and required source emission reduction in Belgrade area.

PubMed

Todorović, Marija N; Perišić, Mirjana D; Kuzmanoski, Maja M; Stojić, Andreja M; Sostarić, Andrej I; Mijić, Zoran R; Rajšić, Slavica F

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess PM10 pollution level and estimate required source emission reduction in Belgrade area, the second largest urban center in the Balkans. Daily mass concentrations and trace metal content (As, Cd, Cr, Mn, Ni, Pb) of PM10 were evaluated for three air quality monitoring sites of different types: urban-traffic (Slavija), suburban (Lazarevac) and rural (Grabovac) under the industrial influence, during the period of 2012-13. Noncompliance with current Air Quality Standards (AQS) was noticeable: annual means were higher than AQS at Slavija and Lazarevac, and daily frequency threshold was exceeded at all three locations. Annual means of As at Lazarevac were about four times higher than the target concentration, which could be attributed to the proximity of coal-fired power plants, and dust resuspension from coal basin and nearby ash landfills. Additionally, levels of Ni and Cr were significantly higher than in other European cities. Carcinogenic health risk of inhabitants' exposure to trace metals was assessed as well. Cumulative cancer risk exceeded the upper limit of acceptable US EPA range at two sites, with Cr and As as the major contributors. To estimate source emission reduction, required to meet AQS, lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 probability distribution, functions (PDF) were used to fit daily PM10 concentrations. Based on the rollback equation and best fitting PDF, estimated reduction was within the range of 28-98%. Finally, the required reduction obtained using two-parameter exponential distribution suggested that risks associated to accidental releases of pollutants should be of greater concern.

Bias present in US federal agency power plant CO2 emissions data and implications for the US clean power plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurney, K. R.; Huang, J.; Coltin, K.

2016-06-01

Power plants constitute roughly 40% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States. Climate change science, air pollution regulation, and potential carbon trading policies rely on accurate, unbiased quantification of these large point sources. Two US federal agencies—the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency—tabulate the emissions from US power plants using two different methodological approaches. We have analyzed those two data sets and have found that when averaged over all US facilities, the median percentage difference is less than 3%. However, this small difference masks large, non-Gaussian, positive and negative differences at individual facilities. For example, over the 2001-2009 time period, nearly one-half of the facilities have monthly emission differences that exceed roughly ±6% and one-fifth exceed roughly ±13%. It is currently not possible to assess whether one, or both, of the datasets examined here are responsible for the emissions difference. Differences this large at the individual facility level raise concerns regarding the operationalization of policy within the United States such as the recently announced Clean Power Plan. This policy relies on the achievement of state-level CO2 emission rate targets. When examined at the state-level we find that one-third of the states have differences that exceed 10% of their assigned reduction amount. Such levels of uncertainty raise concerns about the ability of individual states to accurately quantify emission rates in order to meet the regulatory targets.

Potential Avenues for Significant Biofuels Penetration in the U.S. Aviation Market

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newes, Emily; Han, Jeongwoo; Peterson, Steve

Industry associations have set goals to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase fuel efficiency. One focal area for reducing GHG emissions is in the use of aviation biofuel. This study examines assumptions under which the United States could see large production in aviation biofuel. Our results suggest that a high penetration (6 billion gallons) of aviation biofuels by 2030 could be possible, but factors around policy design (in the absence of high oil prices) contribute to the timing and magnitude of aviation biofuels production: 1) Incentives targeted towards jet fuel production such as financial incentives (e.g., producer tax credit,more » carbon tax) can be sufficient; 2) Investment in pre-commercial cellulosic technologies is needed to reduce the cost of production through learning-by-doing; 3) Reduction of investment risk through loan guarantees may allow production to ramp up more quickly through accelerating industry learning. In cases with high levels of incentives and investment in aviation biofuels, there could be a 25 percent reduction in overall GHG emissions from the aviation sector.« less

Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

PubMed

Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

2010-05-01

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.

Quenching methods for background reduction in luminescence-based probe-target binding assays

DOEpatents

Cai, Hong [Los Alamos, NM; Goodwin, Peter M [Los Alamos, NM; Keller, Richard A [Los Alamos, NM; Nolan, Rhiannon L [Santa Fe, NM

2007-04-10

Background luminescence is reduced from a solution containing unbound luminescent probes, each having a first molecule that attaches to a target molecule and having an attached luminescent moiety, and luminescent probe/target adducts. Quenching capture reagent molecules are formed that are capable of forming an adduct with the unbound luminescent probes and having an attached quencher material effective to quench luminescence of the luminescent moiety. The quencher material of the capture reagent molecules is added to a solution of the luminescent probe/target adducts and binds in a proximity to the luminescent moiety of the unbound luminescent probes to quench luminescence from the luminescent moiety when the luminescent moiety is exposed to exciting illumination. The quencher capture reagent does not bind to probe molecules that are bound to target molecules and the probe/target adduct emission is not quenched.

The Impacts of Policies To Meet The UK Climate Change Act Target on Air Quality - An Explicit Modelling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, M.; Beevers, S.; Lott, M. C.; Kitwiroon, N.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of different pathways to meet the UK Climate Change Act target for 2050, of an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions on a base year of 1990. The pathways can result in low levels of air pollution emissions through the use of renewables and nuclear power. But large increases in biomass burning and the continued use of diesel cars they can result in larger air quality impacts. The work evaluated the air quality impacts in several pathways using an energy system optimisation model (UK TIMES) and a chemical transport model (CMAQ). The work described in this paper goes beyond the `damage cost' approach where only emissions in each are assessed. In this work we used scenarios produced by the UK TIMES model which we converted into air pollution emissions. Emissions of ammonia from agriculture are not attributed to the energy system and are thus not captured by energy system models, yet are crucial in forming PM2.5, acknowledged to be currently the most important pollutant associated with premature deaths. Our model includes these emissions and other non-energy sources of hydrocarbons which lead to the formation of ozone, another significant cause of air pollution health impacts. A key policy issue is how much biogenic hydrocarbons contribute to ozone formation compared with man-made emissions. We modelled pollution concentrations at a resolution of 7 km across the UK and at 2km in urban areas. These results allow us to estimate changes in premature mortality and morbidity associated with the changes in air pollution and subsequently the economic cost of the impacts on public health. The work shows that in the `clean' scenario, urban exposures to particles (PM2.5) and NO2 could decrease by very large amounts, but ozone exposures are likely to increase without further significant reductions world-wide. Large increases in biomass use however could lead to increases in urban levels of carcinogens and primary PM.

Using the Hestia bottom-up FFCO2 emissions estimation to identify drivers and hotspots in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, P.; Patarasuk, R.; Gurney, K. R.; o'Keefe, D.; Song, Y.; Huang, J.; Buchert, M.; Lin, J. C.; Mendoza, D. L.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Eldering, A.; Miller, C. E.; Duren, R. M.

2015-12-01

Urban areas occupy 3% of the earth's land surface and generate 75% of the fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions. We report on the application of the Hestia Project to the Salt Lake County (SLC) and Los Angeles (LA) domains. Hestia quantifies FFCO2 in fine space-time detail across urban domains using a scientific "bottom-up" approach. We explore the utility of the Hestia to inform both urbanization science and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy. We focus on the residential sector in SLC and the onroad sector in LA as these sectors are large emissions contributors in each locale, and local governments have some authority and policy levers to mitigate these emissions. Multiple regression using sociodemographic data across SLC census block-groups shows that per capita income exhibits a positive relationship with FFCO2 emissions while household size exhibits a negative relationship, after controlling for total population. Housing units per area (i.e., compact development) has little effect on FFCO2 emissions. Rising income in the high-income group has twice as much impact on the emissions as the low-income group. Household size for the low-income group has four times the impact on the emissions as the high-income group. In LA, onroad FFCO2 emissions account for 49% of total emissions, of which 41% is from arterials (intermediate road class). Arterials also have the largest carbon emissions intensity - FFCO2/vehicle distance travelled (VKT) - possibly from high traffic congestion and fleet composition. Non-interstate hotspot emissions (> 419 tC ln-km-1) are equally dominated by particular arterials and collectors (lowest road class) though collectors have a higher VKT. These hotspots occur largely in LA (67%) and Orange (18%) counties and provide targeted information for onroad emissions reduction. Using Hestia to identify FFCO2 emissions drivers and hotpots can aid state and local policy makers in planning the most effective GHG reductions.

NOx Emission Reduction and its Effects on Ozone during the 2008 Olympic Games

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qing; Wang, Yuhang; Zhao, Chun

2011-07-15

We applied a daily-assimilated inversion method to estimate NOx (NO+NO2) emissions for June-September 2007 and 2008 on the basis of the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and model simulations using the Regional chEmistry and trAnsport Model (REAM). Over urban Beijing, rural Beijing, and the Huabei Plain, OMI column NO2 reductions are approximately 45%, 33%, and 14%, respectively, while the corresponding anthropogenic NOx emission reductions are only 28%, 24%, and 6%, during the full emission control period (July 20 – Sep 20, 2008). The emission reduction began in early July and was in full force bymore » July 20, corresponding to the scheduled implementation of emission controls over Beijing. The emissions did not appear to recover after the emission control period. Meteorological change from summer 2007 to 2008 is the main factor contributing to the column NO2 decreases not accounted for by the emission reduction. Model simulations suggest that the effect of emission reduction on ozone concentrations over Beijing is relatively minor using a standard VOC emission inventory in China. With an adjustment of the model emissions to reflect in situ observations of VOCs in Beijing, the model simulation suggests a larger effect of the emission reduction.« less

Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Luckow, Patrick

2014-02-01

Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of cropmore » production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.« less

Transportation Energy Pathways LDRD.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barter, Garrett.; Reichmuth, David.; Westbrook, Jessica

2012-09-01

This report presents a system dynamics based model of the supply-demand interactions between the US light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, its fuels, and the corresponding primary energy sources through the year 2050. An important capability of our model is the ability to conduct parametric analyses. Others have relied upon scenario-based analysis, where one discrete set of values is assigned to the input variables and used to generate one possible realization of the future. While these scenarios can be illustrative of dominant trends and tradeoffs under certain circumstances, changes in input values or assumptions can have a significant impact on results, especiallymore » when output metrics are associated with projections far into the future. This type of uncertainty can be addressed by using a parametric study to examine a range of values for the input variables, offering a richer source of data to an analyst.The parametric analysis featured here focuses on a trade space exploration, with emphasis on factors that influence the adoption rates of electric vehicles (EVs), the reduction of GHG emissions, and the reduction of petroleum consumption within the US LDV fleet. The underlying model emphasizes competition between 13 different types of powertrains, including conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), conventional hybrids(HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles(BEVs).We find that many factors contribute to the adoption rates of EVs. These include the pace of technological development for the electric powertrain, battery performance, as well as the efficiency improvements in conventional vehicles. Policy initiatives can also have a dramatic impact on the degree of EV adoption. The consumer effective payback period, in particular, can significantly increase the market penetration rates if extended towards the vehicle lifetime.Widespread EV adoption can have noticeable impact on petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas(GHG) emission by the LDV fleet. However, EVs alone cannot drive compliance with the most aggressive GHG emission reduction targets, even as the current electricity source mix shifts away from coal and towards natural gas. Since ICEs will comprise the majority of the LDV fleet for up to forty years, conventional vehicle efficiency improvements have the greatest potential for reductions in LDV GHG emissions over this time.These findings seem robust even if global oil prices rise to two to three times current projections. Thus,investment in improving the internal combustion engine might be the cheapest, lowest risk avenue towards meeting ambitious GHG emission and petroleum consumption reduction targets out to 2050.3 Acknowledgment The authors would like to thank Dr. Andrew Lutz, Dr. Benjamin Wu, Prof. Joan Ogden and Dr. Christopher Yang for their suggestions over the course of this project. This work was funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories.« less

78 FR 34966 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Wisconsin; Removal of Gasoline...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-11

... substitute equivalent emissions reductions to compensate for any change to a SIP-approved program, as long as actual emissions in the air are not increased. ``Equivalent'' emissions reductions mean reductions which... show that compensating emissions reductions are equivalent, modeling or adequate justification must be...

The impact of uncertainty on optimal emission policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botta, Nicola; Jansson, Patrik; Ionescu, Cezar

2018-05-01

We apply a computational framework for specifying and solving sequential decision problems to study the impact of three kinds of uncertainties on optimal emission policies in a stylized sequential emission problem.We find that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) have a greater impact on optimal policies than uncertainties about the availability of effective emission reduction technologies and uncertainties about the implications of trespassing critical cumulated emission thresholds. The results show that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) call for more precautionary policies. In other words, delaying emission reductions to the point in time when effective technologies will become available is suboptimal when these uncertainties are accounted for rigorously. By contrast, uncertainties about the implications of exceeding critical cumulated emission thresholds tend to make early emission reductions less rewarding.

A dual tracer ratio method for comparative emission measurements in an experimental dairy housing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohn, Joachim; Zeyer, Kerstin; Keck, Margret; Keller, Markus; Zähner, Michael; Poteko, Jernej; Emmenegger, Lukas; Schrade, Sabine

2018-04-01

Agriculture, and in particular dairy farming, is an important source of ammonia (NH3) and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This calls for the development and quantification of effective mitigation strategies. Our study presents the implementation of a dual tracer ratio method in a novel experimental dairy housing with two identical, but spatially separated housing areas. Modular design and flexible floor elements allow the assessment of structural, process engineering and organisational abatement measures at practical scale. Thereby, the emission reduction potential of specific abatement measures can be quantified in relation to a reference system. Emissions in the naturally ventilated housing are determined by continuous dosing of two artificial tracers (sulphur hexafluoride SF6, trifluoromethylsulphur pentafluoride SF5CF3) and their real-time detection in the ppt range with an optimized GC-ECD method. The two tracers are dosed into different experimental sections, which enables the independent assessment of both housing areas. Mass flow emissions of NH3 and GHGs are quantified by areal dosing of tracer gases and multipoint sampling as well as real-time analysis of both tracer and target gases. Validation experiments demonstrate that the technique is suitable for both areal and point emission sources and achieves an uncertainty of less than 10% for the mass emissions of NH3, methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), which is superior to other currently available methods. Comparative emission measurements in this experimental dairy housing will provide reliable, currently unavailable information on emissions for Swiss dairy farming and demonstrate the reduction potential of mitigation measures for NH3, GHGs and potentially other pollutants.

[Research on contribution decomposition by industry to China's carbon intensity reduction and carbon emission growth].

PubMed

Jiang, Jing-Jing; Ye, Bin; Ji, Jun-Ping; Ma, Xiao-Ming

2014-11-01

The binding carbon intensity index and the pilot "cap-and-trade" emission trading scheme are two important approaches currently applied by China to mitigate its greenhouse gases emissions. It is of great significance to research the influence mechanism of related factors by industry on the dynamics of national carbon intensity and emission, not only for setting industry-specified intensity reduction target but also for setting industry coverage of the ETS. Two LMDI models were applied in this paper to decompose industry contributions to the changes of China's carbon intensity and carbon emission during the period of 1996-2010. Empirical results showed that: The decline of national carbon intensity was jointly determined by the changes of carbon intensities and the added value proportions of all industries, and the impact of industry carbon intensities was larger. The increase of national carbon emission was jointly determined by the changes of carbon intensities and the added value of all industries. The former had inhibitory effect whist the latter had decisive promoting effect. The five industries making the largest contribution to the changes of national carbon emission and carbon intensity included industries of electricity, nonmetal mineral, ferrous metal, transportation service, chemical materials, which were followed by the industries of agriculture, coal mining and processing, petroleum and natural gas extraction. Petroleum refining and coking industry and construction industry made small contribution to the decline of national carbon intensity, but made large contribution to the growth of national carbon emission. The contributions of service industries to national carbon emission growth showed a rising trend, especially those of transportation service industry, wholesaling, retailing and catering service industry.

The potential of bio-methane as bio-fuel/bio-energy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions: a qualitative assessment for Europe in a life cycle perspective.

PubMed

Tilche, Andrea; Galatola, Michele

2008-01-01

Anaerobic digestion is a well known process that (while still capable of showing new features) has experienced several waves of technological development. It was "born" as a wastewater treatment system, in the 1970s showed promise as an alternative energy source (in particular from animal waste), in the 1980s and later it became a standard for treating organic-matter-rich industrial wastewater, and more recently returned to the market for its energy recovery potential, making use of different biomasses, including energy crops. With the growing concern around global warming, this paper looks at the potential of anaerobic digestion in terms of reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The potential contribution of anaerobic digestion to GHG reduction has been computed for the 27 EU countries on the basis of their 2005 Kyoto declarations and using life cycle data. The theoretical potential contribution of anaerobic digestion to Kyoto and EU post-Kyoto targets has been calculated. Two different possible biogas applications have been considered: electricity production from manure waste, and upgraded methane production for light goods vehicles (from landfill biogas and municipal and industrial wastewater treatment sludges). The useful heat that can be produced as by-product from biogas conversion into electricity has not been taken into consideration, as its real exploitation depends on local conditions. Moreover the amount of biogas already produced via dedicated anaerobic digestion processes has also not been included in the calculations. Therefore the overall gains achievable would be even higher than those reported here. This exercise shows that biogas may considerably contribute to GHG emission reductions in particular if used as a biofuel. Results also show that its use as a biofuel may allow for true negative GHG emissions, showing a net advantage with respect to other biofuels. Considering also energy crops that will become available in the next few years as a result of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, this study shows that biogas has the potential of covering almost 50% of the 2020 biofuel target of 10% of all automotive transport fuels, without implying a change in land use. Moreover, considering the achievable GHG reductions, a very large carbon emission trading "value" could support the investment needs.However, those results were obtained through a "qualitative" assessment. In order to produce robust data for decision makers, a quantitative sustainability assessment should be carried out, integrating different methodologies within a life cycle framework. The identification of the most appropriate policy for promoting the best set of options is then discussed.

The economics of subnational carbon policy interactions and integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Fadli

An integrated, nationwide carbon policy is essential to achieve US environmental targets relating to carbon emissions. The carbon policy literature is loaded with qualitative analysis of the implications or mechanisms of an integrated emissions market across the US, but current quantitative studies do not offer solutions regarding the interactions of coexisting US regional emission markets and other policy instruments. Therefore, this dissertation attempts to answer three fundamental concerns about US carbon policy. The second chapter analyzes the welfare implications of different relative stringencies of cap-setting under a proposed integration of two emissions markets, considering the attributes relevant to each market. The third chapter extends this market integration analysis by adding an intertemporal feature to analyze the consequences of integrating existing emission markets in the US (i.e., California and RGGI). The fourth chapter examines the adverse economic implications of adopting several overlapping carbon policy instruments to regulate carbon emissions in a region. The second and third chapters employ a simple structural model with a stochastic variable to account for uncertainties in emissions. The fourth chapter utilizes a static general equilibrium framework based on IMPLAN data for California to comprehensively evaluate the reactions of the state-wide economy to various carbon policy settings. In general, the results show that integrating existing emissions markets could generate both positive and negative effects on economic welfare. The positive effects result from gains from trading permits, while negative results come from perverse second-best interactions. Policymakers are expected to carefully consider the factors and attributes of all regions prior to setting their policy targets and designing an integrated system of carbon reduction.

Evaluating the CO 2 emissions reduction potential and cost of power sector re-dispatch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinberg, Daniel C.; Bielen, David A.; Townsend, Aaron

Prior studies of the U.S. electricity sector have recognized the potential to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by substituting generation from coal-fired units with generation from under-utilized and lower-emitting natural gas-fired units; in fact, this type of 're-dispatch' was invoked as one of the three building blocks used to set the emissions targets under the Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan. Despite the existence of surplus natural gas capacity in the U.S., power system operational constraints not often considered in power sector policy analyses, such as transmission congestion, generator ramping constraints, minimum generation constraints, planned and unplanned generator outages, andmore » ancillary service requirements, could limit the potential and increase the cost of coal-to-gas re-dispatch. Using a highly detailed power system unit commitment and dispatch model, we estimate the maximum potential for re-dispatch in the Eastern Interconnection, which accounts for the majority of coal capacity and generation in the U.S. Under our reference assumptions, we find that maximizing coal-to-gas re-dispatch yields emissions reductions of 230 million metric tons (Mt), or 13% of power sector emissions in the Eastern Interconnection, with a corresponding average abatement cost of $15-$44 per metric ton of CO2, depending on the assumed supply elasticity of natural gas.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the modelmore » calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants, targets were less well-defined, but while all three scenarios were able to make significant reductions in ROG, NOx and PM2.5 both statewide and in the two regional air basins, they may nonetheless fall short of what will be required by future federal standards. Specifically, in Scenario 1, regional NOx emissions are approximately three times the estimated targets for both 2023 and 2032, and in Scenarios 2 and 3, NOx emissions are approximately twice the estimated targets. Further work is required in this area, including detailed regional air quality modeling, in order to determine likely pathways for attaining these stringent targets.« less

Preparation of W–Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3} targets and scandate cathodes with film prepared by pulsed laser deposition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xizhu; Wang, Jinshu, E-mail: wangjsh@bjut.edu.cn; Liu, Wei

2013-12-15

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • W–Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3} film containing 5% Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3} and 95% W were prepared by pulsed laser deposition. • W–Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3} film on scandate cathode surface improves emission property. • The film improves Sc distribution uniformity and is favorable for forming Ba–Sc–O layer. - Abstract: Sub-micrometer Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3}–W powder with a narrow particle size distribution has been obtained by a sol–gel method combined with two-step hydrogen reduction process. Based on the obtained powder, the W–Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3} targets have been sintered via spark plasma sintering (SPS) at 1300 °C. The W–Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3}more » targets have the average grain size of about 1 μm. Both the sintering temperature and holding time are much lower than those of the targets prepared with micrometer sized powders. The obtained W–Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3} targets have a high comparative density of 96.4% and rockwell hardness of 86.4 HRC. Using the target, the scandate cathode deposited with a film containing 5% Sc{sub 2}O{sub 3} and 95% W has been obtained by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) method. This cathode has good emission property, i.e., the highest thermionic emission current density reaches 43.09 A/cm{sup 2} of J{sub div} at 900 °C{sub b} after being activated for 8 h, which is much higher than that of scandate cathode without film. Scandium (Sc) supplied by the film on the surface during the activation forms a Ba–Sc–O active layer, which helps to the emission.« less

Research on Bifurcation and Chaos in a Dynamic Mixed Game System with Oligopolies Under Carbon Emission Constraint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Yang, Wenhui; Lou, Wandong

This paper establishes an oligopolistic game model under the carbon emission reduction constraint and investigates its complex characteristics like bifurcation and chaos. Two oligopolistic manufacturers comprise three mixed game models, aiming to explore the variation in the status of operating system as per the upgrading of benchmark reward-penalty mechanism. Firstly, we set up these basic models that are respectively distinguished with carbon emission quantity and study these models using different game methods. Then, we concentrate on one typical game model to further study the dynamic complexity of variations in the system status, through 2D bifurcation diagrams and 4D parameter adjustment features based on the bounded rationality scheme for price, and the adaptive scheme for carbon emission. The results show that the carbon emission constraint has significant influence on the status variation of two-oligopolistic game operating systems no matter whether it is stable or chaotic. Besides, the new carbon emission regulation meets government supervision target and achieves the goal of being environment friendly by motivating the system to operate with lower carbon emission.

Is it time to tackle PM(2.5) air pollutions in China from biomass-burning emissions?

PubMed

Zhang, Yan-Lin; Cao, Fang

2015-07-01

An increase in haze days has been observed in China over the past two decades due to the rapid industrialization, urbanization and energy consumptions. To address this server issue, Chinese central government has recently released the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution, which mainly focuses on regulation of indusial and transport-related emissions with major energy consumption from fossil fuels. This comprehensive and toughest plan is definitely a major step in the right direction aiming at beautiful and environmental-friendly China; however, based on recent source apportionment results, we suggest that strengthening regulation emissions from biomass-burning sources in both urban and rural areas is needed to meet a rigorous reduction target. Here, household biofuel and open biomass burning are highlighted, as impacts of these emissions can cause local and regional pollution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mitigating fluorescence spectral overlap in wide-field endoscopic imaging

PubMed Central

Hou, Vivian; Nelson, Leonard Y.; Seibel, Eric J.

2013-01-01

Abstract. The number of molecular species suitable for multispectral fluorescence imaging is limited due to the overlap of the emission spectra of indicator fluorophores, e.g., dyes and nanoparticles. To remove fluorophore emission cross-talk in wide-field multispectral fluorescence molecular imaging, we evaluate three different solutions: (1) image stitching, (2) concurrent imaging with cross-talk ratio subtraction algorithm, and (3) frame-sequential imaging. A phantom with fluorophore emission cross-talk is fabricated, and a 1.2-mm ultrathin scanning fiber endoscope (SFE) is used to test and compare these approaches. Results show that fluorophore emission cross-talk could be successfully avoided or significantly reduced. Near term, the concurrent imaging method of wide-field multispectral fluorescence SFE is viable for early stage cancer detection and localization in vivo. Furthermore, a means to enhance exogenous fluorescence target-to-background ratio by the reduction of tissue autofluorescence background is demonstrated. PMID:23966226

Measurements of emission-propagation phenomena in low-energy atmospheric-pressure helium plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Hiromasa; Shimizu, Tetsuji; Fujiwara, Masanori; Kato, Susumu; Fujiwara, Yutaka; Itagaki, Hirotomo; Kiyama, Satoru; Kim, Jaeho; Ikehara, Sanae; Shimizu, Nobuyuki; Nakanishi, Hayao; Ikehara, Yuzuru; Sakakita, Hajime

2018-05-01

In a low-temperature atmospheric pressure plasma jet using helium gas, emission-propagation phenomena, such as streamers and striations were measured using a high-speed intensified charge-coupled device camera. A particular focus was placed on the study of the dependence of the phenomena on the distance between the nozzle of the plasma device and a target plate. When the distance decreased, a transition from the positive streamer to a spatially continuous emission resulted. A further distance reduction resulted in a new propagation mode in which the positive and negative streamers appeared alternately with different current waveforms over two cycles of applied voltage. This phenomenon may be related to residual charges of the preceding cycle when streamer propagation begins. Striation structures were observed in the tail of the positive streamer head and in the successive spatially continuous-emission region. These structures can be measured only within a shorter period than one voltage cycle.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael

In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cutmore » primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.« less

Regional-scale carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics of organic matter amendments on grassland soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Silver, W. L.

2017-12-01

While progress is being made toward emissions reductions, achieving the international warming target of no more than 2 °C by 2100 will require active removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This research explores the potential for grassland ecosystems to sequester soil carbon (C) and mitigate climate change over time. We parameterized a site-level biogeochemical model (DayCent) to predict the effect of compost applications on grassland net primary productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil C storage and loss. We compare the results of the DayCent model from seven grassland regions across a broad climate gradient in CA. We also modeled the impact of climate change under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and reduced emissions scenario (RCP 4.5). Model results show that a single application of compost leads to a large net increase in soil C over several decades across all sites. Maximum soil C sequestration relative to control simulations occurred approximately 15 years after a ¼ inch compost was applied to the land, resulting in a maximum net C drawdown of approximately 6.6 Mg C/ha (Mendocino) by 2030 and a continued climate benefit from enhanced C storage through the end of the century. Compost application resulted in enhanced soil C in both climate scenarios, but the reduced emissions climate scenario resulted in greater net C storage than the high emissions scenario by 2100. This points to a virtuous cycle of simultaneous emissions reductions leading to enhanced climate change mitigation potential from land management strategies.

Assessment of the visibility impairment caused by the emissions from the proposed power plant at Boron, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergstrom, R. W.; Doyle, J. R.; Johnson, C. D.; Holman, H. Y.; Wojcik, M. A.

1980-01-01

The current atmospheric conditions and visibility were modeled, and the effect of the power plant effluent was then added to determine its influence upon the prevailing visibility; the actual reduction in visibility being a function of meteorological conditions and observer-plume-target geometry. In the cases investigated, the perceptibility of a target was reduced by a minimum of 10 percent and a maximum of 100 percent. This significant visual impact would occur 40 days per year in the Edwards area with meteorological conditions such as to cause some visual impact 80 days per year.

40 CFR 93.165 - Early emission reduction credit programs at Federal facilities and installation subject to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Early emission reduction credit... Federal Actions to State or Federal Implementation Plans § 93.165 Early emission reduction credit programs... the SIP or TIP in that area, create an early emissions reductions credit program. The Federal agency...

40 CFR 93.165 - Early emission reduction credit programs at Federal facilities and installation subject to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Early emission reduction credit... Federal Actions to State or Federal Implementation Plans § 93.165 Early emission reduction credit programs... the SIP or TIP in that area, create an early emissions reductions credit program. The Federal agency...

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF ABSORPTION, LOCAL SUPPRESSION, AND EMISSIVITY REDUCTION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES IN MAGNETIC REGIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chou, D.-Y.; Yang, M.-H.; Zhao Hui

Observed acoustic power in magnetic regions is lower than the quiet Sun because of absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression of solar acoustic waves in magnetic regions. In the previous studies, we have developed a method to measure the coefficients of absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression of sunspots. In this study, we go one step further to measure the spatial distributions of three coefficients in two active regions, NOAA 9055 and 9057. The maps of absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression coefficients correlate with the magnetic map, including plage regions, except the emissivity reduction coefficient of NOAA 9055 wheremore » the emissivity reduction coefficient is too weak and lost among the noise.« less

The Role of Industrial Parks in Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from China.

PubMed

Guo, Yang; Tian, Jinping; Zang, Na; Gao, Yang; Chen, Lujun

2018-06-14

This study uncovered the direct and indirect energy-related GHG emissions of 213 Chinese national-level industrial parks, providing 11% of China's GDP, from a life-cycle perspective. Direct emissions are sourced from fuel combustion, and indirect emissions are embodied in energy production. The results indicated that in 2015, the direct and indirect GHG emissions of the parks were 1042 and 181 million tonne CO2 eq., respectively, totally accounting for 11% of national GHG emissions. The total energy consumption of the parks accounted for 10% of national energy consumption. Coal constituted 74% of total energy consumption in these parks. Baseline and low-carbon scenarios are established for 2030, and five GHG mitigation measures targeting energy consumption are modeled. The GHG mitigation potential for these parks in 2030 is quantified as 116 million tonne, equivalent to 9.5% of the parks' total emission in 2015. The measures that increase the share of natural gas consumption, reduce the GHG emission factor of electricity grid, and improve the average efficiency of industrial coal-fired boilers, will totally contribute 94% and 98% in direct and indirect GHG emissions reductions, respectively. These findings will provide a solid foundation for the low-carbon development of Chinese industrial parks.

Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts.

PubMed

Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2011-10-01

Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.

40 CFR 76.5 - NOX emission limitations for Group 1 boilers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) ACID RAIN NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAM § 76.5 NOX emission limitations..., the date on which the unit is required to meet Acid Rain emission reduction requirements for SO2, the... 404(d) of the Act, the date the unit is required to meet Acid Rain emissions reduction requirements...

40 CFR 76.5 - NOX emission limitations for Group 1 boilers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) ACID RAIN NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAM § 76.5 NOX emission limitations..., the date on which the unit is required to meet Acid Rain emission reduction requirements for SO2, the... 404(d) of the Act, the date the unit is required to meet Acid Rain emissions reduction requirements...

40 CFR 76.5 - NOX emission limitations for Group 1 boilers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) ACID RAIN NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAM § 76.5 NOX emission limitations..., the date on which the unit is required to meet Acid Rain emission reduction requirements for SO2, the... 404(d) of the Act, the date the unit is required to meet Acid Rain emissions reduction requirements...

Operationalizing clean development mechanism baselines: A case study of China's electrical sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenhof, Paul A.

The global carbon market is rapidly developing as the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol draws closer and Parties to the Protocol with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets seek alternative ways to reduce their emissions. The Protocol includes the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a tool that encourages project-based investments to be made in developing nations that will lead to an additional reduction in emissions. Due to China's economic size and rate of growth, technological characteristics, and its reliance on coal, it contains a large proportion of the global CDM potential. As China's economy modernizes, more technologies and processes are requiring electricity and demand for this energy source is accelerating rapidly. Relatively inefficient technology to generate electricity in China thereby results in the electrical sector having substantial GHG emission reduction opportunities as related to the CDM. In order to ensure the credibility of the CDM in leading to a reduction in GHG emissions, it is important that the baseline method used in the CDM approval process is scientifically sound and accessible for both others to use and for evaluation purposes. Three different methods for assessing CDM baselines and environmental additionality are investigated in the context of China's electrical sector: a method based on a historical perspective of the electrical sector (factor decomposition), a method structured upon a current perspective (operating and build margins), and a simulation of the future (dispatch analysis). Assessing future emission levels for China's electrical sector is a very challenging task given the complexity of the system, its dynamics, and that it is heavily influenced by internal and external forces, but of the different baseline methods investigated, dispatch modelling is best suited for the Chinese context as it is able to consider the important regional and temporal dimensions of its economy and its future development. For China, the most promising options for promoting sustainable development, one of the goals of the Kyoto Protocol, appear to be tied to increasing electrical end-use and generation efficiency, particularly clean coal technology for electricity generation since coal will likely continue to be a dominant primary fuel.

Estimating Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in 2050 from New Buildings in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beardsley, K.; Thorne, J. H.; Quinn, J. F.

2009-12-01

A major contributor to global warming is Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO2) as the lead constituent. While the United States has failed to take a leadership role in worldwide efforts to reduce global warming, California has implemented some of the strictest reduction goals in the country. Recent legislation in California requires significant GHG emission reductions in the coming decades to meet state-mandated targets. To better understand the relative contribution of urban growth to these emissions, we applied an Energy and GHG Impacts Calculator (referred to as “GHG Calculator”) to estimate GHG contributions for two statewide population growth scenarios for the year 2050. Implemented as part of the UPlan urban growth model, the GHG Calculator allows users to predict and compare GHG output from new development. In this paper, two scenarios, differing only in the spatial allocation of housing among zoning categories, are developed and tested for the year 2050 in California. The difference in total GHG emissions between these scenarios was less than 1%. Thus, while “smart growth” may be desirable for a variety of other reasons, the policy impact of the sprawl footprint per se on fixed-source GHG emissions is likely to be far less than effects from other factors, such as insulation and household energy efficiency. The GHG Calculator allows alternative emission-reducing measures to be tested, including modified energy mixes (e.g. a greater percent of renewable sources and lower carbon-based fuels) and conservation measures. The goal is to approximate 2050 emissions and determine what measures are needed to achieve the 2050 goal set by the Governor of California to help decrease the State’s overall contribution to global warming.

40 CFR Table 5 to Subpart Zzzz of... - Initial Compliance With Emission Limitations, Operating Limitations, and Other Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... average reduction of emissions of THC determined from the initial performance test is equal to or greater... greater than the required formaldehyde percent reduction or the average reduction of emissions of THC... average reduction of emissions of THC is 30 percent or more; ii. You have installed a CPMS to continuously...

40 CFR Table 5 to Subpart Zzzz of... - Initial Compliance With Emission Limitations, Operating Limitations, and Other Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... average reduction of emissions of THC determined from the initial performance test is equal to or greater... greater than the required formaldehyde percent reduction or the average reduction of emissions of THC... average reduction of emissions of THC is 30 percent or more; ii. You have installed a CPMS to continuously...

40 CFR 76.5 - NOX emission limitations for Group 1 boilers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) ACID RAIN NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAM § 76.5 NOX emission limitations..., the date on which the unit is required to meet Acid Rain emission reduction requirements for SO2, the... subject to section 404(d) of the Act, the date the unit is required to meet Acid Rain emissions reduction...

Central African detail experience: what US FIA field staff can teach and learn through short term assignments—Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon

Treesearch

Josh Feinberg

2015-01-01

REDD+, Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation is a United Nations initiative targeted to combat atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming by providing monetary incentives to developing countries to preserve their forested land as effective carbon sinks. In order for these countries to receive this monetary benefit, they must develop and...

System-wide and Superemitter Policy Options for the Abatement of Methane Emissions from the U.S. Natural Gas System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayfield, E. N.; Robinson, A. L.; Cohon, J. L.

2017-12-01

This work assesses trade-offs between system-wide and superemitter policy options for reducing methane emissions from compressor stations in the U.S. transmission and storage system. Leveraging recently collected national emissions and activity data sets, we developed a new process-based emissions model implemented in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to estimate emissions for each component and facility in the system. We find that approximately 83% of emissions, given the existing suite of technologies, have the potential to be abated, with only a few emission categories comprising a majority of emissions. We then formulate optimization models to determine optimal abatement strategies. Most emissions across the system (approximately 80%) are efficient to abate, resulting in net benefits ranging from 160M to 1.2B annually across the system. The private cost burden is minimal under standard and tax instruments, and if firms market the abated natural gas, private net benefits may be generated. Superemitter policies, namely, those that target the highest emitting facilities, may reduce the private cost burden and achieve high emission reductions, especially if emissions across facilities are highly skewed. However, detection across all facilities is necessary regardless of the policy option and there are nontrivial net benefits resulting from abatement of relatively low-emitting sources.

System-wide and Superemitter Policy Options for the Abatement of Methane Emissions from the U.S. Natural Gas System.

PubMed

Mayfield, Erin N; Robinson, Allen L; Cohon, Jared L

2017-05-02

This work assesses trade-offs between system-wide and superemitter policy options for reducing methane emissions from compressor stations in the U.S. transmission and storage system. Leveraging recently collected national emissions and activity data sets, we developed a new process-based emissions model implemented in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to estimate emissions for each component and facility in the system. We find that approximately 83% of emissions, given the existing suite of technologies, have the potential to be abated, with only a few emission categories comprising a majority of emissions. We then formulate optimization models to determine optimal abatement strategies. Most emissions across the system (approximately 80%) are efficient to abate, resulting in net benefits ranging from $160M to $1.2B annually across the system. The private cost burden is minimal under standard and tax instruments, and if firms market the abated natural gas, private net benefits may be generated. Superemitter policies, namely, those that target the highest emitting facilities, may reduce the private cost burden and achieve high emission reductions, especially if emissions across facilities are highly skewed. However, detection across all facilities is necessary regardless of the policy option and there are nontrivial net benefits resulting from abatement of relatively low-emitting sources.

Likelihood of achieving air quality targets under model uncertainties.

PubMed

Digar, Antara; Cohan, Daniel S; Cox, Dennis D; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Boylan, James W

2011-01-01

Regulatory attainment demonstrations in the United States typically apply a bright-line test to predict whether a control strategy is sufficient to attain an air quality standard. Photochemical models are the best tools available to project future pollutant levels and are a critical part of regulatory attainment demonstrations. However, because photochemical models are uncertain and future meteorology is unknowable, future pollutant levels cannot be predicted perfectly and attainment cannot be guaranteed. This paper introduces a computationally efficient methodology for estimating the likelihood that an emission control strategy will achieve an air quality objective in light of uncertainties in photochemical model input parameters (e.g., uncertain emission and reaction rates, deposition velocities, and boundary conditions). The method incorporates Monte Carlo simulations of a reduced form model representing pollutant-precursor response under parametric uncertainty to probabilistically predict the improvement in air quality due to emission control. The method is applied to recent 8-h ozone attainment modeling for Atlanta, Georgia, to assess the likelihood that additional controls would achieve fixed (well-defined) or flexible (due to meteorological variability and uncertain emission trends) targets of air pollution reduction. The results show that in certain instances ranking of the predicted effectiveness of control strategies may differ between probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

Transportation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading. Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steve Winkelman; Tim Hargrave; Christine Vanderlan

1999-10-01

The authors conclude in this report that an upstream system would ensure complete regulatory coverage of transportation sector emissions in an efficient and feasible manner, and as such represents a key component of a national least-cost GHG emissions abatement strategy. The broad coverage provided by an upstream system recommends this approach over vehicle-maker based approaches, which would not cover emissions from heavy-duty vehicles and the aviation, marine and off-road sub-sectors. The on-road fleet approach unfairly and inefficiently burdens vehicle manufacturers with responsibility for emissions that they cannot control. A new vehicles approach would exclude emissions from vehicles on the roadmore » prior to program inception. The hybrid approach faces significant technical and political complications, and it is not clear that the approach would actually change behavior among vehicle makers and users, which is its main purpose. They also note that a trading system would fail to encourage many land use and infrastructure measures that affect VMT growth and GHG emissions. They recommend that this market failure be addressed by complementing the trading system with a program specifically targeting land use- and infrastructure-related activities. A key issue that must be addressed in designing a national GHG control strategy is whether or not it is necessary to guarantee GHG reductions from the transport sector. Neither an upstream system nor a downstream approach would do so, since both would direct capital to the least-cost abatement opportunities wherever they were found. They review two reasons why it may be desirable to force transportation sector reductions: first, that the long-term response to climate change will require reductions in all sectors; and second, the many ancillary benefits associated with transportation-related, and especially VMT-related, emissions reduction activities. If policy makers find it desirable to establish transportation-specific policies, they recommend (in addition to the land use policies mentioned above), that they combine an upstream trading system with a carbon efficiency standard similar to the current CAFE standard. Under this approach a fuel price signal would be complemented by incentives for manufacturers to produce more carbon efficient vehicles. To prevent vehicle manufacturers from being forced to pay more than other sectors for reducing GHG emissions, they recommend that the vehicle makers be allowed to pay a cash penalty equal to the market price of allowances in lieu of meeting carbon efficiency requirements.« less

Projects to Improve Air Quality at Ports – 2014 Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA) Funding Opportunity - Closed Announcement FY 2014

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

OTAQ is soliciting proposals that achieve reductions in diesel emissions produced by diesel engines and diesel emissions exposure, from fleets operating at marine and inland water ports under the Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA).

40 CFR 60.1935 - What equations must I use?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...) Percent reduction in potential hydrogen chloride emissions. Calculate the percent reduction in potential hydrogen chloride emissions (%PHC1) using equation 3 of this section: ER06DE00.005 Where: %PHC1 = percent reduction of the potential hydrogen chloride emissions Ei = hydrogen chloride emission concentration as...

40 CFR 60.1935 - What equations must I use?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) Percent reduction in potential hydrogen chloride emissions. Calculate the percent reduction in potential hydrogen chloride emissions (%PHC1) using equation 3 of this section: ER06DE00.005 Where: %PHC1 = percent reduction of the potential hydrogen chloride emissions Ei = hydrogen chloride emission concentration as...

Projects to Improve Air Quality at Ports – 2013 Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA) Funding Opportunity - Closed Announcement FY 2014

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

OTAQ is soliciting proposals that achieve reductions in diesel emissions produced by diesel engines and diesel emissions exposure, from fleets operating at marine and inland water ports under the Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA).

Environment Eu agrees on cut in greenhouse gases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-03-12

In an unexpected development, the European Union`s (EU) Council of Environment Ministers has agreed to a 2010 deadline for a 15% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases. The agreement outlines the European Commission`s strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), to be negotiated in the UN conference on climate change to be held in Kyoto, Japan in December (CW, Feb. 26, p. 8). The European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) says the commission`s target could curb competitiveness and even lead to the closure of some plants. {open_quotes}It`s certainly a target that is unrealistic--2010 is too close.more » Industry needs more time to adjust, assuming that it can at all,{close_quotes} Cefic environment counselor Claude Culem tells CW. {open_quotes}It [is] obviously a unilateral decision [made] by the commission with little [consideration] for industry.{close_quotes}« less

Impact of environmental constraints and aircraft technology on airline fleet composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moolchandani, Kushal A.

This thesis models an airline's decisions about fleet evolution in order to maintain economic and regulatory viability. The aim is to analyze the fleet evolution under different scenarios of environmental policy and technology availability in order to suggest an optimal fleet under each case. An understanding of the effect of aircraft technologies, fleet size and age distribution, and operational procedures on airline performance may improve the quality of policies to achieve environmental goals. Additionally, the effect of decisions about fleet evolution on air travel is assessed as the change in market demand and profits of an abstracted, benevolent monopolist airline. Attention to the environmental impact of aviation has grown, and this has prompted several organizations such as ICAO (and, in response, NASA) to establish emissions reduction targets to reduce aviation's global climate impact. The introduction of new technology, change in operational procedures, etc. are some of the proposed means to achieve these targets. Of these, this thesis studies the efficacy of implementation of environmental policies in form of emissions constraints as a means to achieve these goals and assesses their impact on an airline's fleet evolution and technology use (along with resulting effects on air travel demand). All studies in this thesis are conducted using the Fleet-level Environmental Evaluation Tool (FLEET), a NASA sponsored simulation tool developed at Purdue University. This tool models airline operational decisions via a resource allocation problem and uses a system dynamics type approach to mimic airline economics, their decisions regarding retirement and acquisition of aircraft and evolution of market demand in response to the economic conditions. The development of an aircraft acquisition model for FLEET is a significant contribution of the author. Further, the author conducted a study of various environmental policies using FLEET. Studies introduce constraints on maximum CO2 emissions that the airline can cause, taxes on airlines for excess emissions, and the use of biofuels. The results obtained indicate that implementation of very strict policies that place a heavy penalty on airlines for environmental inefficiency would lead to a drastic decline in market demand served as well as airline profits. For example, to achieve a 50% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 from the 2005 levels, the airlines would need to leave as much as 45% of predicted market demand unmet, thereby significantly reducing their profits. Taxing airlines for excess emissions would lead them to use large aircraft for short distance operations to reduce CO2 produced per seat mile, decreasing the total number of flights. Since taxation provides an economic motive for airlines to seek low emissions operations procedures, it can be an effective means of achieving emissions reduction goals. Finally the use of biofuels, under some assumption of biofuel availability and cost, helps reduce emissions without compromising market demand or airline profits.

TEM Cell Testing of Cable Noise Reduction Techniques from 2 MHz to 200 MHz -- Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradley, Arthur T.; Evans, William C.; Reed, Joshua L.; Shimp, Samuel K., III; Fitzpatrick, Fred D.

2008-01-01

This paper presents empirical results of cable noise reduction techniques as demonstrated in a TEM cell operating with radiated fields from 2 - 200 MHz. It is the second part of a two-paper series. The first paper discussed cable types and shield connections. In this second paper, the effects of load and source resistances and chassis connections are examined. For each topic, well established theories are compared to data from a real-world physical system. Finally, recommendations for minimizing cable susceptibility (and thus cable emissions) are presented. There are numerous papers and textbooks that present theoretical analyses of cable noise reduction techniques. However, empirical data is often targeted to low frequencies (e.g. <50 KHz) or high frequencies (>100 MHz). Additionally, a comprehensive study showing the relative effects of various noise reduction techniques is needed. These include the use of dedicated return wires, twisted wiring, cable shielding, shield connections, changing load or source impedances, and implementing load- or source-to-chassis isolation. We have created an experimental setup that emulates a real-world electrical system, while still allowing us to independently vary a host of parameters. The goal of the experiment was to determine the relative effectiveness of various noise reduction techniques when the cable is in the presence of radiated emissions from 2 MHz to 200 MHz.

Reduction of zinc emissions from buildings; the policy of Amsterdam.

PubMed

Gouman, E

2004-01-01

In Amsterdam zinc coming from the roofs and gutters of the buildings accounts for about 50% of the zinc emissions into the surface water (i.e. canals and rivers). This causes water and sediment pollution. Dumping strongly polluted sediment costs ten times more then dumping less polluted mud. Therefore the City of Amsterdam has developed a policy for reducing the zinc emissions from buildings based on the current environmental legislation and the current national targets for surface water quality. Zinc roofs on new and renovated buildings are not permitted. Run off water from zinc roofs of existing buildings is allowed to contain a maximum of 200 microg/l zinc. For the zinc gutters of houses, Amsterdam will promote measures to reduce zinc emissions. To investigate the feasibility of measures, research has been carried out on the zinc emissions of gutters and the effect of covering gutters with an impermeable foil. This research shows clearly that covering zinc gutters with EPDM foil reduces the zinc emissions by 90% from 8.5 to 0.88 gram per square metre per year including the atmospheric deposition.

Ammonia emissions in Europe, part II: How ammonia emission abatement strategies affect secondary aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Backes, Anna M.; Aulinger, Armin; Bieser, Johannes; Matthias, Volker; Quante, Markus

2016-02-01

In central Europe, ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate make up a large fraction of fine particles which pose a threat to human health. Most studies on air pollution through particulate matter investigate the influence of emission reductions of sulphur- and nitrogen oxides on aerosol concentration. Here, we focus on the influence of ammonia (NH3) emissions. Emission scenarios have been created on the basis of the improved ammonia emission parameterization implemented in the SMOKE for Europe and CMAQ model systems described in part I of this study. This includes emissions based on future European legislation (the National Emission Ceilings) as well as a dynamic evaluation of the influence of different agricultural sectors (e.g. animal husbandry) on particle formation. The study compares the concentrations of NH3, NH4+, NO3 -, sulphur compounds and the total concentration of particles in winter and summer for a political-, technical- and behavioural scenario. It was found that a reduction of ammonia emissions by 50% lead to a 24% reduction of the total PM2.5 concentrations in northwest Europe. The observed reduction was mainly driven by reduced formation of ammonium nitrate. Moreover, emission reductions during winter had a larger impact than during the rest of the year. This leads to the conclusion that a reduction of the ammonia emissions from the agricultural sector related to animal husbandry could be more efficient than the reduction from other sectors due to its larger share in winter ammonia emissions.

Regulating emission of air pollutants for near-term relief from global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.; Xu, Y.

2011-12-01

The manmade greenhouse gases that are now blanketing the planet is thick enough to warm the system beyond the 20C threshold. Even with a targeted reduction in CO2 emission of 50% by 2050, we will still be adding more than 50 ppm of CO2 and add another 10C to the warming. Fortunately, there are still ways to contain the warming by reducing non-CO2 climate warmers (methane, lower atmosphere ozone, black carbon and HFCs), using available and field tested technologies. The major advantage of going for these 'low-hanging fruits' is that this approach will clean up the air and improve health and food security of south and east Asia, thus engaging developing nations more effectively in climate negotiations. These non-CO2 mitigation actions will have significant (beneficial) impacts on the chemistry, clouds and precipitation of the atmosphere and these have to be quantified adequately. For example, reducing black and organic carbon emissions (through cleaner cooking technologies in developing countries) will also lead to significant reductions in carbon monoxide, which is an ozone precursor. The institutional infrastructure for reducing non-CO2 climate warmers already exist and have a proven track record for successful climate mitigation.

Carbon Footprint Reduction in Transportation Activity by Emphasizing the Usage of Public Bus Services Among Adolescents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukor, Nur Sabahiah Abdul; Khairiyah Basri, Nur; Asmah Hassan, Sitti

2017-08-01

Transportation is one of the sectors that contributes to the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. In terms of carbon footprint, transportation is among the major contributors of high carbon intensity in the urban area. This study was conducted to reduce the carbon footprint contributed by the transportation sector in Penang Island by emphasizing the use of public buses. Secondary school students were the target group for this study. They were asked to report their daily travel behaviour and fuel consumption in a travel journal. The fuel consumption data from the travel journal were used to calculate each individual’s carbon emission level. After the analyses, the value of carbon emissions was revealed to the students. Next, they were encouraged to use public transport in a motivation session and were asked to record their fuel consumption in the travel journal once again. The results showed that there was a significant difference in fuel consumption before and after the motivation session, as the students preferred to use public buses instead of private vehicles after the motivation session. This indicates that the motivation programme had been successful in creating the awareness towards carbon footprint reduction among the adolescents.

GENERIC VERIFICATION PROTOCOL FOR DETERMINATION OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FROM SELECTIVE CATALYTIC REDUCTIONS CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES FOR HIGHWAY, NONROAD, AND STATIONARY USE DIESEL ENGINES

EPA Science Inventory

The protocol describes the Environmental Technology Verification (ETV) Program's considerations and requirements for verification of emissions reduction provided by selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technologies. The basis of the ETV will be comparison of the emissions and perf...

Prioritizing environmental justice and equality: diesel emissions in southern California.

PubMed

Marshall, Julian D; Swor, Kathryn R; Nguyen, Nam P

2014-04-01

Existing environmental policies aim to reduce emissions but lack standards for addressing environmental justice. Environmental justice research documents disparities in exposure to air pollution; however, little guidance currently exists on how to make improvements or on how specific emission-reduction scenarios would improve or deteriorate environmental justice conditions. Here, we quantify how emission reductions from specific sources would change various measures of environmental equality and justice. We evaluate potential emission reductions for fine diesel particulate matter (DPM) in Southern California for five sources: on-road mobile, off-road mobile, ships, trains, and stationary. Our approach employs state-of-the-science dispersion and exposure models. We compare four environmental goals: impact, efficiency, equality, and justice. Results indicate potential trade-offs among those goals. For example, reductions in train emissions produce the greatest improvements in terms of efficiency, equality, and justice, whereas off-road mobile source reductions can have the greatest total impact. Reductions in on-road emissions produce improvements in impact, equality, and justice, whereas emission reductions from ships would widen existing population inequalities. Results are similar for complex versus simplified exposure analyses. The approach employed here could usefully be applied elsewhere to evaluate opportunities for improving environmental equality and justice in other locations.

Impact of fuel quality regulation and speed reductions on shipping emissions: implications for climate and air quality.

PubMed

Lack, Daniel A; Cappa, Christopher D; Langridge, Justin; Bahreini, Roya; Buffaloe, Gina; Brock, Charles; Cerully, Kate; Coffman, Derek; Hayden, Katherine; Holloway, John; Lerner, Brian; Massoli, Paola; Li, Shao-Meng; McLaren, Robert; Middlebrook, Ann M; Moore, Richard; Nenes, Athanasios; Nuaaman, Ibraheem; Onasch, Timothy B; Peischl, Jeff; Perring, Anne; Quinn, Patricia K; Ryerson, Tom; Schwartz, Joshua P; Spackman, Ryan; Wofsy, Steven C; Worsnop, Doug; Xiang, Bin; Williams, Eric

2011-10-15

Atmospheric emissions of gas and particulate matter from a large ocean-going container vessel were sampled as it slowed and switched from high-sulfur to low-sulfur fuel as it transited into regulated coastal waters of California. Reduction in emission factors (EFs) of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter, particulate sulfate and cloud condensation nuclei were substantial (≥ 90%). EFs for particulate organic matter decreased by 70%. Black carbon (BC) EFs were reduced by 41%. When the measured emission reductions, brought about by compliance with the California fuel quality regulation and participation in the vessel speed reduction (VSR) program, are placed in a broader context, warming from reductions in the indirect effect of SO₄ would dominate any radiative changes due to the emissions changes. Within regulated waters absolute emission reductions exceed 88% for almost all measured gas and particle phase species. The analysis presented provides direct estimations of the emissions reductions that can be realized by California fuel quality regulation and VSR program, in addition to providing new information relevant to potential health and climate impact of reduced fuel sulfur content, fuel quality and vessel speed reductions.

Emissions and climate-relevant optical properties of pollutants emitted from a three-stone fire and the Berkeley-Darfur stove tested under laboratory conditions.

PubMed

Preble, Chelsea V; Hadley, Odelle L; Gadgil, Ashok J; Kirchstetter, Thomas W

2014-06-03

Cooking in the developing world generates pollutants that endanger the health of billions of people and contribute to climate change. This study quantified pollutants emitted when cooking with a three-stone fire (TSF) and the Berkeley-Darfur Stove (BDS), the latter of which encloses the fire to increase fuel efficiency. The stoves were operated at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory testing facility with a narrow range of fuel feed rates to minimize performance variability. Fast (1 Hz) measurements of pollutants enabled discrimination between the stoves' emission profiles and development of woodsmoke-specific calibrations for the aethalometer (black carbon, BC) and DustTrak (fine particles, PM2.5). The BDS used 65±5% (average±95% confidence interval) of the wood consumed by the TSF and emitted 50±5% of the carbon monoxide emitted by the TSF for an equivalent cooking task, indicating its higher thermal efficiency and a modest improvement in combustion efficiency. The BDS reduced total PM2.5 by 50% but achieved only a 30% reduction in BC emissions. The BDS-emitted particles were, therefore, more sunlight-absorbing: the average single scattering albedo at 532 nm was 0.36 for the BDS and 0.47 for the TSF. Mass emissions of PM2.5 and BC varied more than emissions of CO and wood consumption over all tests, and emissions and wood consumption varied more among TSF than BDS tests. The international community and the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves have proposed performance targets for the highest tier of cookstoves that correspond to greater reductions in fuel consumption and PM2.5 emissions of approximately 65% and 95%, respectively, compared to baseline cooking with the TSF. Given the accompanying decrease in BC emissions for stoves that achieve this stretch goal and BC's extremely high global warming potential, the short-term climate change mitigation from avoided BC emissions could exceed that from avoided CO2 emissions.

Proposal of Classification Method of Time Series Data in International Emissions Trading Market Using Agent-based Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakada, Tomohiro; Takadama, Keiki; Watanabe, Shigeyoshi

This paper proposes the classification method using Bayesian analytical method to classify the time series data in the international emissions trading market depend on the agent-based simulation and compares the case with Discrete Fourier transform analytical method. The purpose demonstrates the analytical methods mapping time series data such as market price. These analytical methods have revealed the following results: (1) the classification methods indicate the distance of mapping from the time series data, it is easier the understanding and inference than time series data; (2) these methods can analyze the uncertain time series data using the distance via agent-based simulation including stationary process and non-stationary process; and (3) Bayesian analytical method can show the 1% difference description of the emission reduction targets of agent.

Particulate Emission Abatement for Krakow Boilerhouses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-09-14

Environmental cleanup and pollution control are considered the foremost national priorities in Poland. The target of this cleanup is the Polish coal industry, which supplies the fuel to generate over 78% of Poland`s primary energy production. This project addresses the problem of airborne dust and uncontrolled particulate emissions from boilerhouses, which represent a large fraction of the total in Poland. In Krakow alone, there are numerous uncontrolled boilers accounting for about half the total fuel use. The large number of low-capacity boilers poses both technical and economic challenges, since the cost of control equipment is a significant factor in themore » reduction of emissions. A new concept in dust collection, called a Core Separator, is proposed for this important application. The Core Separator is an advanced technology developed through research sponsored by the Department of Energy.« less

Air quality co-benefits of carbon pricing in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mingwei; Zhang, Da; Li, Chiao-Ting; Mulvaney, Kathleen M.; Selin, Noelle E.; Karplus, Valerie J.

2018-05-01

Climate policies targeting energy-related CO2 emissions, which act on a global scale over long time horizons, can result in localized, near-term reductions in both air pollution and adverse human health impacts. Focusing on China, the largest energy-using and CO2-emitting nation, we develop a cross-scale modelling approach to quantify these air quality co-benefits, and compare them to the economic costs of climate policy. We simulate the effects of an illustrative climate policy, a price on CO2 emissions. In a policy scenario consistent with China's recent pledge to reach a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030, we project that national health co-benefits from improved air quality would partially or fully offset policy costs depending on chosen health valuation. Net health co-benefits are found to rise with increasing policy stringency.

The role of anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction in achieving the Paris Agreement's objective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hienola, Anca; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; O'Donnell, Declan; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Korhonen, Hannele; Laaksonen, Ari

2017-04-01

The Paris agreement reached in December 2015 under the auspices of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims at holding the global temperature increase to well below 2◦C above preindustrial levels and "to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5◦C above preindustrial levels". Limiting warming to any level implies that the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the dominant driver of long-term temperatures - that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite. Essentially, this means that global CO2 emissions need to become net zero. CO2 is not the only pollutant causing warming, although it is the most persistent. Short-lived, non-CO2 climate forcers also must also be considered. Whereas much effort has been put into defining a threshold for temperature increase and zero net carbon emissions, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the non-CO2 climate forcers, including not just the non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons etc.) but also the anthropogenic aerosols like black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulfate. This study investigates the possibility of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5◦C by the end of the century under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions simulated with the very simplistic MAGICC climate carbon cycle model as well as with ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2-SALSA + UVic ESCM. The simulations include two different CO2 scenarios- RCP3PD as control and a CO2 reduction leading to 1.5◦C (which translates into reaching the net zero CO2 emissions by mid 2040s followed by negative emissions by the end of the century); each CO2 scenario includes also two aerosol pollution control cases denoted with CLE (current legislation) and MFR (maximum feasible reduction). The main result of the above scenarios is that the stronger the anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction is, the more significant the temperature increase by 2100 relative to pre-industrial temperature will be, making the 1.5◦C temperature goal impossible to reach. Although the global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols can greatly enforce the global warming effect due to GHGs, all our simulations resulted in temperature increase bellow (but not well bellow) 2◦C above preindustrial levels - a slightly more realistic target compared to 1.5◦C. The results of this study are based on simulations of only two climate models. As such, we do not regard these results as indisputable, but we consider that aerosols and their effect on climate deserve more attention when discussing future aerosol emission.

Impact of Agricultural Emission Reductions on Fine Particulate Matter and Public Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, A.; Tsimpidi, A.; Karydis, V.; De Meij, A.; Lelieveld, J.

2017-12-01

A global chemistry-climate model has been used to study the impacts of pollutants released by agriculture on fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with a focus on Europe, North America, South and East Asia. Hypothetical reduction of agricultural emission of 50%, 66% and 100% have been simulated and compared with the reference simulation. The simulations results reveal that a relatively strong reduction in PM2.5 levels can be achieved by decreasing agricultural emissions, and this effect can almost be exclusively explain by the reduction of ammonia (NH3) emissions, released from fertilizer use and animal husbandry. The absolute impact on PM2.5 reduction is strongest in East Asia, even for small emission decreases, although the relative reduction is very low (below 13% for a full removal of agricultural emissions) . Conversely, over Europe and North America, aerosol formation is not directly limited by the availability of ammonia. Nevertheless, reduction of NH3 can also substantially decrease PM2.5concentrations over the latter regions, especially when emissions are abated systematically and an ammonia limited regions of aerosol growth is reached. Further, our results document how reduction of agricultural emissions decreases aerosol pH due to the depletion of aerosol ammonium, which affects particle liquid phase and heterogeneous chemistry. It is calculated that ammonia emission controls could reduce the particle pH up to 1.5 pH-units in East Asia during winter, and more than 1.7 pH-units in South Asia, theoretically assuming complete agricultural emission removal, which could have repercussions for the reactive uptake of gases from the gas phase and the outgassing of relative weak acids. It is finally shown that a 50% reduction of agricultural emissions could prevent the mortality attributable to air pollution by 250 thousands people per year worldwide, amounting to reductions of 30%, 19% , 8% and 3% over North America, Europe and South Asia and East Asia, respectively. These results suggest that emission control policies, especially in North America and Europe, should involve strong ammonia emission decreases to optimally reduce PM2.5 concentrations.

NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Liu, H.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

2013-10-01

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the impact of key factors on future emissions.

Global Emissions of Nitrous Oxide: Key Source Sectors, their Future Activities and Technical Opportunities for Emission Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiwarter, W.; Höglund-Isaksson, L.; Klimont, Z.; Schöpp, W.; Amann, M.

2017-12-01

Nitrous oxide originates primarily from natural biogeochemical processes, but its atmospheric concentrations have been strongly affected by human activities. According to IPCC, it is the third largest contributor to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (after carbon dioxide and methane). Deep decarbonization scenarios, which are able to constrain global temperature increase within 1.5°C, require strategies to cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions on top of phasing out carbon dioxide emissions. Employing the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model, we have estimated global emissions of nitrous oxide until 2050. Using explicitly defined emission reduction technologies we demonstrate that, by 2030, about 26% ± 9% of the emissions can be avoided assuming full implementation of currently existing reduction technologies. Nearly a quarter of this mitigation can be achieved at marginal costs lower than 10 Euro/t CO2-eq with the chemical industry sector offering important reductions. Overall, the largest emitter of nitrous oxide, agriculture, also provides the largest emission abatement potentials. Emission reduction may be achieved by precision farming methods (variable rate technology) as well as by agrochemistry (nitrification inhibitors). Regionally, the largest emission reductions are achievable where intensive agriculture and industry are prevalent (production and application of mineral fertilizers): Centrally Planned Asia including China, North and Latin America, and South Asia including India. Further deep cuts in nitrous oxide emissions will require extending reduction efforts beyond strictly technological solutions, i.e., considering behavioral changes, including widespread adoption of "healthy diets" minimizing excess protein consumption.

Risk-based prioritization among air pollution control strategies in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

PubMed

Zhou, Ying; Fu, Joshua S; Zhuang, Guoshun; Levy, Jonathan I

2010-09-01

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China is a densely populated region with recent dramatic increases in energy consumption and atmospheric emissions. We studied how different emission sectors influence population exposures and the corresponding health risks, to inform air pollution control strategy design. We applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to model the marginal contribution to baseline concentrations from different sectors. We focused on nitrogen oxide (NOx) control while considering other pollutants that affect fine particulate matter [aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 mum (PM2.5)] and ozone concentrations. We developed concentration-response (C-R) functions for PM2.5 and ozone mortality for China to evaluate the anticipated health benefits. In the YRD, health benefits per ton of emission reductions varied significantly across pollutants, with reductions of primary PM2.5 from the industry sector and mobile sources showing the greatest benefits of 0.1 fewer deaths per year per ton of emission reduction. Combining estimates of health benefits per ton with potential emission reductions, the greatest mortality reduction of 12,000 fewer deaths per year [95% confidence interval (CI), 1,200-24,000] was associated with controlling primary PM2.5 emissions from the industry sector and reducing sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the power sector, respectively. Benefits were lower for reducing NOx emissions given lower consequent reductions in the formation of secondary PM2.5 (compared with SO2) and increases in ozone concentrations that would result in the YRD. Although uncertainties related to C-R functions are significant, the estimated health benefits of emission reductions in the YRD are substantial, especially for sectors and pollutants with both higher health benefits per unit emission reductions and large potential for emission reductions.

Assessment of Co-benefits of vehicle emission reduction measures for 2015-2020 in the Pearl River Delta region, China.

PubMed

Liu, Yong-Hong; Liao, Wen-Yuan; Lin, Xiao-Fang; Li, Li; Zeng, Xue-Lan

2017-04-01

Vehicle emissions have become one of the key factors affecting the urban air quality and climate change in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, so it is important to design policies of emission reduction based on quantitative Co-benefits for air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG). Emissions of air pollutants and GHG by 2020 was predicted firstly based on the no-control scenario, and five vehicle emissions reduction scenarios were designed in view of the economy, technology and policy, whose emissions reduction were calculated. Then Co-benefits between air pollutants and GHG were quantitatively analyzed by the methods of coordinate system and cross-elasticity. Results show that the emissions reduction effects and the Co-benefits of different measures vary greatly in 2015-2020. If no control scheme was applied, most air pollutants and GHG would increase substantially by 20-64% by 2020, with the exception of CO, VOC and PM 2.5 . Different control measures had different reduction effects for single air pollutant and GHG. The worst reduction measure was Eliminating Motorcycles with average reducing rate 0.09% for air pollutants and GHG, while the rate from Updated Emission Standard was 41.74%. Eliminating Yellow-label Vehicle scenario had an obvious reduction effect for every single pollutant in the earlier years, but Co-benefits would descent to zero in later by 2020. From the perspective of emission reductions and co-control effect, Updated Emission Standard scenario was best for reducing air pollutants and GHG substantially (tanα=1.43 and Els=1.77). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GLIMPSE: a rapid decision framework for energy and environmental policy.

PubMed

Akhtar, Farhan H; Pinder, Robert W; Loughlin, Daniel H; Henze, Daven K

2013-01-01

Over the coming decades, new energy production technologies and the policies that oversee them will affect human health, the vitality of our ecosystems, and the stability of the global climate. The GLIMPSE decision model framework provides insights about the implications of technology and policy decisions on these outcomes. Using GLIMPSE, decision makers can identify alternative techno-policy futures, examining their air quality, health, and short- and long-term climate impacts. Ultimately, GLIMPSE will support the identification of cost-effective strategies for simultaneously achieving performance goals for these metrics. Here, we demonstrate the utility of GLIMPSE by analyzing several future energy scenarios under existing air quality regulations and potential CO2 emission reduction policies. We find opportunities for substantial cobenefits in setting both climate change mitigation and health-benefit based air quality improvement targets. Though current policies which prioritize public health protection increase near-term warming, establishing policies that also reduce greenhouse gas emissions may offset warming in the near-term and lead to significant reductions in long-term warming.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fulle, D.J.; Bilello, M.A.; Armstrong, J.A.

The US Trade and Development Agency is partially funding the initial phase of an ambient air quality monitoring program for the Metropolitan Municipality of Istanbul in Turkey. The objectives of the monitoring program are fourfold: (1) to ascertain existing levels of air pollution within the urban area; (2) to identify locations where there may be health concerns associated with existing levels of air pollution; (3) to determine the portion of air pollution arising from specific anthropogenic sources within the urban area; and (4) to target the major sources for an emission-reduction program. This program is being carried out in phases.more » A feasibility study has recently been completed. This initial activity will be followed by three main program phases. Phase 1 will involve the installation of several air quality monitoring stations to collect area-wide background data within and surrounding the Municipality. Phase 2 will consist of taking detailed pollutant measurements near specific sources and in specific areas of high pollutant concentrations identified in Phase 1. Phase 3 would target the major sources for emission reductions to improve local air quality and would institute revisions to the existing air quality permitting program. The feasibility study included determining the pollutants of concern, specifying the equipment that should be utilized in Phase 1 for the collection of the data, recommending the number and location of sites where data should be collected, determining site preparation and security needs, and defining the data reduction and analysis techniques which should be employed. This paper describes the results of the feasibility study and outlines plans for the remaining phases of the program.« less

Emissions from small-scale burns of simulated deployed U.S. military waste.

PubMed

Woodall, Brian D; Yamamoto, Dirk P; Gullett, Brian K; Touati, Abderrahmane

2012-10-16

U.S. military forces have historically relied on open burning as an expedient method of volume reduction and treatment of solid waste during the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. This study is the first effort to characterize a broad range of pollutants and their emission factors during the burning of military waste and the effects that recycling efforts, namely removing plastics, might have on emissions. Piles of simulated military waste were constructed, burned, and emissions sampled at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Open Burn Testing Facility (OBTF), Research Triangle Park, NC. Three tests contained polyethylene terephthalate (PET #1 or PET) plastic water bottles and four did not. Emission factors for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), particulate matter (PM(10), PM(2.5)), polychlorinated and polybrominated dioxins/furans (PCDD/F and PBDD/F), and criteria pollutants were determined and are contained within. The average PCDD/F emission factors were 270 ng-toxic equivalency (TEQ) per kg carbon burned (ng-TEQ/kg Cb), ranging from 35 to 780 ng-TEQ/kg Cb. Limited testing suggests that targeted removal of plastic water bottles has no apparent effect on reducing pollutants and may even promote increased emissions.

Cumulative Carbon and Anthropocene Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, D.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Solomon, S.

2010-12-01

In this presentation we will highlight a few of the key findings of the recently completed National Research Council Study Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations and Impacts over Decades to Millennia (NRC, 2010), and discuss their implications for planetary stewardship. A synthesis of published results shows that the single number which most characterizes the magnitude of the human imprint on the climate of the coming millennia is the net amount of carbon released as CO2 by fossil fuel burning and land use changes during the time over which humanity continues such activities. Details of emissions scenarios are not important; rather it is the net carbon released by the time the emissions have been brought to essentially zero that controls long-term climate changes. In this report, we estimate that global temperatures increase by about 1 degree for approximately every 570 Pg of carbon emitted. Each degree of global temperature change is associated with quantifiable impacts on human and natural systems, including loss of arctic sea ice, decreased productivity of several major food crops, decreased precipitation in dry regions, and increases in area burnt by wildfire. Furthermore, the long timescale of temperature changes due to cumulative carbon emissions entails a lock-in to many centuries of continued sea-level rise, as well as the possibility of substantial contributions to sea-level rise from both Greenland and the West-Antarctic ice sheet. Reductions in methane or other short-lived greenhouse gas emissions can be of benefit in mitigating the near term climate changes, but CO2 is unique among major greenhouse gases in its ability to disrupt climate on multi-millennial time scales. This implies a need for correspondingly special treatment of this gas in emissions control protocols, for example by setting targets for allowable cumulative carbon emissions over time. The authoring committee was composed of Susan Solomon, Chair, David Battisti, Scott Doney, Katharine Hayhoe, Isaac M. Held, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, David Lobell, Damon Matthews, Raymond Pierrehumbert, Marilyn Raphael, Richard Richels, Terry L. Root, Konrad Steffen, Claudia Tebaldi, and Gary W. Yohe. Reference: National Research Council, 2010, Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 232 pp.

Improving the environmental profile of wood panels via co-production of ethanol and acetic acid.

PubMed

Earles, J Mason; Halog, Anthony; Shaler, Stephen

2011-11-15

The oriented strand board (OSB) biorefinery is an emerging technology that could improve the building, transportation, and chemical sectors' environmental profiles. By adding a hot water extraction stage to conventional OSB panel manufacturing, hemicellulose polysaccharides can be extracted from wood strands and converted to renewably sourced ethanol and acetic acid. Replacing fossil-based gasoline and acetic acid has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, among other possible impacts. At the same time, hemicellulose extraction could improve the environmental profile of OSB panels by reducing the level of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted during manufacturing. In this study, the life cycle significance of such GHG, VOC, and other emission reductions was investigated. A process model was developed based on a mix of laboratory and industrial-level mass and energy flow data. Using these data a life cycle assessment (LCA) model was built. Sensitive process parameters were identified and used to develop a target production scenario for the OSB biorefinery. The findings suggest that the OSB biorefinery's deployment could substantially improve human and ecosystem health via reduction of select VOCs compared to conventionally produced OSB, gasoline, and acetic acid. Technological advancements are needed, however, to achieve desirable GHG reductions.

The relationship between CO2 emission, energy consumption and economic growth in Malaysia: a three-way linkage approach.

PubMed

Sulaiman, Chindo; Abdul-Rahim, A S

2017-11-01

This study examines the three-way linkage relationships between CO 2 emission, energy consumption and economic growth in Malaysia, covering the 1975-2015 period. An autoregressive distributed lag approach was employed to achieve the objective of the study and gauged by dynamic ordinary least squares. Additionally, vector error correction model, variance decompositions and impulse response functions were employed to further examine the relationship between the interest variables. The findings show that economic growth is neither influenced by energy consumption nor by CO 2 emission. Energy consumption is revealed to be an increasing function of CO 2 emission. Whereas, CO 2 emission positively and significantly depends on energy consumption and economic growth. This implies that CO 2 emission increases with an increase in both energy consumption and economic growth. Conclusively, the main drivers of CO 2 emission in Malaysia are proven to be energy consumption and economic growth. Therefore, renewable energy sources ought to be considered by policy makers to curb emission from the current non-renewable sources. Wind and biomass can be explored as they are viable sources. Energy efficiency and savings should equally be emphasised and encouraged by policy makers. Lastly, growth-related policies that target emission reduction are also recommended.

Aircraft Piston Engine Exhaust Emission Symposium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

A 2-day symposium on the reduction of exhaust emissions from aircraft piston engines was held on September 14 and 15, 1976, at the Lewis Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio. Papers were presented by both government organizations and the general aviation industry on the status of government contracts, emission measurement problems, data reduction procedures, flight testing, and emission reduction techniques.

76 FR 67600 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Texas; Regulations for Control of Air...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-02

... July 22, 1998, revision allows for the use of Discrete Emission Reduction Credits (DERC) to exceed... creates a new section at 116.116(f) that allows Discrete Emission Reduction Credits (DERCs) to be used to...-term emission credits (called discrete emission reduction credits, or DERCs, in the Texas program) by...

Unique X-ray emission characteristics from volumetrically heated nanowire array plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocca, J. J.; Bargsten, C.; Hollinger, R.; Shlyaptsev, V.; Pukhov, A.; Kaymak, V.; Capeluto, G.; Keiss, D.; Townsend, A.; Rockwood, A.; Wang, Y.; Wang, S.

2015-11-01

Highly anisotropic emission of hard X-ray radiation (h ν >10 keV) is observed when arrays of ordered nanowires (50 nm diameter wires of Au or Ni) are volumetrically heated by normal incidence irradiation with high contrast 50-60 fs laser pulses of relativistic intensity. The annular emission is in contrast with angular distribution of softer X-rays (h ν >1 KeV) from these targets and with the X-ray radiation emitted by polished flat targets, both of which are nearly isotropic. Model computations that make use the electron energy distribution computed by particle-in-cell simulations show that the unexpected annular distribution of the hard x-rays is the result of bremsstrahlung from fast electrons. Volumetric heating of Au nanowire arrays irradiated with an intensity of 2 x 10 19 W cm-2 is measured to convert laser energy into h ν>1KeV photons with a record efficiency of >8 percent into 2 π, creating a bright picosecond X-ray source for applications. Work supported by the Office of Fusion Energy Science of the U.S Department of Energy, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. A.P was supported by DFG project TR18.

Chemical composition and speciation of particulate organic matter from modern residential small-scale wood combustion appliances.

PubMed

Czech, Hendryk; Miersch, Toni; Orasche, Jürgen; Abbaszade, Gülcin; Sippula, Olli; Tissari, Jarkko; Michalke, Bernhard; Schnelle-Kreis, Jürgen; Streibel, Thorsten; Jokiniemi, Jorma; Zimmermann, Ralf

2018-01-15

Combustion technologies of small-scale wood combustion appliances are continuously developed decrease emissions of various pollutants and increase energy conversion. One strategy to reduce emissions is the implementation of air staging technology in secondary air supply, which became an established technique for modern wood combustion appliances. On that account, emissions from a modern masonry heater fuelled with three types of common logwood (beech, birch and spruce) and a modern pellet boiler fuelled with commercial softwood pellets were investigated, which refer to representative combustion appliances in northern Europe In particular, emphasis was put on the organic constituents of PM2.5, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) and phenolic species, by targeted and non-targeted mass spectrometric analysis techniques. Compared to conventional wood stoves and pellet boilers, organic emissions from the modern appliances were reduced by at least one order of magnitude, but to a different extent for single species. Hence, characteristic ratios of emission constituents and emission profiles for wood combustion identification and speciation do not hold for this type of advanced combustion technology. Additionally, an overall substantial reduction of typical wood combustion markers, such as phenolic species and anhydrous sugars, were observed. Finally, it was found that slow ignition of log woods changes the distribution of characteristic resin acids and phytosterols as well as their thermal alteration products, which are used as markers for specific wood types. Our results should be considered for wood combustion identification in positive matrix factorisation or chemical mass balance in northern Europe. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Role of Technology for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 Study on Technology Strategies and Climate Policy Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Weyant, John; Blanford, Geoffrey J.

2014-04-01

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 19 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the value of individual mitigation technologies such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Achieving atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration targets at 450 and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent requires massive greenhouse gas emissions reductions. A fragmented policy approach at the level of current ambition is inconsistent with these targets. The availability of a negative emissions technology, in most models biofuels withmore » CCS, proved to be a key element for achieving the climate targets. Robust characteristics of the transformation of the energy system are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy have largest value, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The individual value of low-carbon power technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO2e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology variability. Mitigation costs roughly double when moving from 550 ppm to 450 ppm CO2e, but remain below 3% of GDP for most models.« less

Effectiveness of mitigation measures in reducing future primary particulate matter emissions from on-road vehicle exhaust.

PubMed

Yan, Fang; Bond, Tami C; Streets, David G

2014-12-16

This work evaluates the effectiveness of on-road primary particulate matter emission reductions that can be achieved by long-term vehicle scrappage and retrofit measures on regional and global levels. Scenario analysis shows that scrappage can provide significant emission reductions as soon as the measures begin, whereas retrofit provides greater emission reductions in later years, when more advanced technologies become available in most regions. Reductions are compared with a baseline that already accounts for implementation of clean vehicle standards. The greatest global emission reductions from a scrappage program occur 5 to 10 years after its introduction and can reach as much as 70%. The greatest reductions with retrofit occur around 2030 and range from 16-31%. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate how uncertainties in the composition of the vehicle fleet affect predicted reductions. Scrappage and retrofit reduce global emissions by 22-60% and 15-31%, respectively, within 95% confidence intervals, under a midrange scenario in the year 2030. The simulations provide guidance about which strategies are most effective for specific regions. Retrofit is preferable for high-income regions. For regions where early emission standards are in place, scrappage is suggested, followed by retrofit after more advanced emission standards are introduced. The early implementation of advanced emission standards is recommended for Western and Eastern Africa.

Effectiveness of Mitigation Measures in Reducing Future Primary Particulate Matter Emissions from On-Road Vehicle Exhaust

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Fang; Bond, Tami C.; Streets, David G.

This work evaluates the effectiveness of on-road primary particulate matter emission reductions that can be achieved by long-term vehicle scrappage and retrofit measures on regional and global levels. Scenario analysis shows that scrappage can provide significant emission reductions as soon as the measures begin, whereas retrofit provides greater emission reductions in later years, when more advanced technologies become available in most regions. Reductions are compared with a baseline that already accounts for implementation of clean vehicle standards. The greatest global emission reductions from a scrappage program occur 5 to 10 years after its introduction and can reach as much asmore » 70%. The greatest reductions with retrofit occur around 2030 and range from 16-31%. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate how uncertainties in the composition of the vehicle fleet affect predicted reductions. Scrappage and retrofit reduce global emissions by 22-60% and 15-31%, respectively, within 95% confidence intervals, under a midrange scenario in the year 2030. The simulations provide guidance about which strategies are most effective for specific regions. Retrofit is preferable for high-income regions. For regions where early emission standards are in place, scrappage is suggested, followed by retrofit after more advanced emission standards are introduced. The early implementation of advanced emission standards is recommended for Western and Eastern Africa« less

Boiler Briquette Coal versus Raw Coal: Part II-Energy, Greenhouse Gas, and Air Quality Implications.

PubMed

Zhang, Junfeng; Ge, Su; Bai, Zhipeng

2001-04-01

The objective of this paper is to conduct an integrated analysis of the energy, greenhouse gas, and air quality impacts of a new type of boiler briquette coal (BB-coal) in contrast to those of the raw coal from which the BB-coal was formulated (R-coal). The analysis is based on the source emissions data and other relevant data collected in the present study and employs approaches including the construction of carbon, energy, and sulfur balances. The results show that replacing R-coal with BB-coal as the fuel for boilers such as the one tested would have multiple benefits, including a 37% increase in boiler thermal efficiency, a 25% reduction in fuel demand, a 26% reduction in CO 2 emission, a 17% reduction in CO emission, a 63% reduction in SO 2 emission, a 97% reduction in fly ash and fly ash carbon emission, a 22% reduction in PM 2.5 mass emission, and a 30% reduction in total emission of five toxic hazardous air pollutant (HAP) metals contained in PM 10 . These benefits can be achieved with no changes in boiler hardware and with a relatively small amount of tradeoffs: a 30% increase in PM 10 mass emission and a 9-16% increase in fuel cost.

Boiler briquette coal versus raw coal: Part II--Energy, greenhouse gas, and air quality implications.

PubMed

Zhang, J; Ge, S; Bai, Z

2001-04-01

The objective of this paper is to conduct an integrated analysis of the energy, greenhouse gas, and air quality impacts of a new type of boiler briquette coal (BB-coal) in contrast to those of the raw coal from which the BB-coal was formulated (R-coal). The analysis is based on the source emissions data and other relevant data collected in the present study and employs approaches including the construction of carbon, energy, and sulfur balances. The results show that replacing R-coal with BB-coal as the fuel for boilers such as the one tested would have multiple benefits, including a 37% increase in boiler thermal efficiency, a 25% reduction in fuel demand, a 26% reduction in CO2 emission, a 17% reduction in CO emission, a 63% reduction in SO2 emission, a 97% reduction in fly ash and fly ash carbon emission, a 22% reduction in PM2.5 mass emission, and a 30% reduction in total emission of five toxic hazardous air pollutant (HAP) metals contained in PM10. These benefits can be achieved with no changes in boiler hardware and with a relatively small amount of tradeoffs: a 30% increase in PM10 mass emission and a 9-16% increase in fuel cost.

[Efficiency of industrial energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in Liaoning Pro-vince based on data envelopment analysis (DEA)method.

PubMed

Wang, Li; Xi, Feng Ming; Li, Jin Xin; Liu, Li Li

2016-09-01

Taking 39 industries as independent decision-making units in Liaoning Province from 2003 to 2012 and considering the benefits of energy, economy and environment, we combined direction distance function and radial DEA method to estimate and decompose the energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction efficiency of the industries. Carbon emission of each industry was calculated and defined as an undesirable output into the model of energy saving and carbon emission reduction efficiency. The results showed that energy saving and carbon emission reduction efficiency of industries had obvious heterogeneity in Liaoning Province. The whole energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction efficiency in each industry of Liaoning Province was not high, but it presented a rising trend. Improvements of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency were the main measures to enhance energy saving and carbon emission reduction efficiency, especially scale efficiency improvement. In order to improve the energy saving and carbon emission reduction efficiency of each industry in Liaoning Province, we put forward that Liaoning Province should adjust industry structure, encourage the development of low carbon high benefit industries, improve scientific and technological level and adjust the industry scale reasonably, meanwhile, optimize energy structure, and develop renewable and clean energy.

Quantifying the sectoral contribution of pollution transport from South Asia during summer and winter monsoon seasons in support of HTAP-2 experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran, Divya E.; Ghude, Sachin D.; Beig, G.; Jena, Chinmay; Chate, D. M.

2016-11-01

This study examines the contribution of 20% reduction in anthropogenic emissions from the energy, industry and transport sectors in South Asia to global distribution of ozone (O3) during summer and winter monsoon seasons. We used Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART-4) and Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution version-2 (HTAP-v2) emission inventory to simulate global O3 for five different sensitivity simulations. Contribution from different emission sectors is identified on the basis of the differences between model calculations with unperturbed emissions (Base-case) and the emissions reduced by 20% by different sectors over South Asia. During the summer season, 20% reduction in emissions from transportation sector contributes maximum decrease in O3 of the order of 0.8 ppb in the center of Asian Summer Monsoons (ASM) anticyclone at 200 hPa. Response to Extra Regional Emission Reduction (RERER) is found to vary between 0.4 and 0.7 inside the ASM, indicating that 40-70% of O3 trapped inside the anticyclone is influenced by the emission from non-Asian emissions, and the remaining O3 is influenced by South-Asian emissions. During winter, 20% reduction in emissions from transport sector contributes decrease in O3 at surface up to 0.5 ppb over South Asia and outflow region (the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal). RERER values vary between 0 and 0.2 over South Asia indicating the predominant impact of local emissions reduction on surface O3 concentration than reduction in foreign emissions. We have also examined the health benefits of reduction in regional, global and sectoral emissions in terms of decrease in excess number of COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) cases due to O3 exposure. We find that more health benefits can be achieved if global emissions are decreased by 20%.

Universal Multifunctional Nanoplatform Based on Target-Induced in Situ Promoting Au Seeds Growth to Quench Fluorescence of Upconversion Nanoparticles.

PubMed

Wu, Qiongqiong; Chen, Hongyu; Fang, Aijin; Wu, Xinyang; Liu, Meiling; Li, Haitao; Zhang, Youyu; Yao, Shouzhuo

2017-12-22

Construction of a new multifunctional chemo/biosensing platform for small biomolecules and tumor markers is of great importance in analytical chemistry. Herein, a novel universal multifunctional nanoplatform for biomolecules and enzyme activity detection was proposed based on fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) between upconversion nanoparticles (UCNPs) and target-inducing enlarged gold nanoparticles (AuNPs). The reductive molecule such as H 2 O 2 can act as the reductant to reduce HAuCl 4 , which will make the Au seeds grow. The enlarged AuNPs can effectively quench the fluorescence of UCNPs owing to the good spectral overlap between the absorption band of the AuNPs and the emission band of the UCNPs. Utilizing the FRET between the UCNPs and enlarged AuNPs, good linear relationship between the fluorescence of UCNPs and the concentration of H 2 O 2 can be found. Based on this strategy, H 2 O 2 related molecules such as l-lactate, glucose, and uric acid can also be quantified. On the basis of UCNPs and PVP/HAuCl 4 , a general strategy for other reductants such as ascorbic acid (AA), dopamine (DA), or enzyme activity can be established. Therefore, the universal multifunctional nanoplatform based on UCNPs and the target-inducing in situ enlarged Au NPs will show its potential as a simple method for the detection of some life related reductive molecules, enzyme substrates, as well as enzyme activity.

Application research on big data in energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Bingdong; Chen, Jing; Wang, Mei; Yao, Jingjing

2017-06-01

In the context of big data age, the energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation is a natural big data industry. The planning, management, decision-making of energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation and other aspects should be supported by the analysis and forecasting of large amounts of data. Now, with the development of information technology, such as intelligent city, sensor road and so on, information collection technology in the direction of the Internet of things gradually become popular. The 3G/4G network transmission technology develop rapidly, and a large number of energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation data is growing into a series with different ways. The government not only should be able to make good use of big data to solve the problem of energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation, but also to explore and use a large amount of data behind the hidden value. Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics and application technology of energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation data, this paper carries out its application research in energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation industry, so as to provide theoretical basis and reference value for low carbon management.

Effects of Particle Filters and Selective Catalytic Reduction on In-Use Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preble, C.; Cados, T.; Harley, R.; Kirchstetter, T.

2016-12-01

Heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDT) are a major source of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and black carbon (BC) in urban environments, contributing to persistent ozone and particulate matter air quality problems. Diesel particle filters (DPFs) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems that target PM and NOx emissions, respectively, have recently become standard equipment on new HDDT. DPFs can also be installed on older engines as a retrofit device. Previous work has shown that DPF and SCR systems can reduce NOx and BC emissions by up to 70% and 90%, respectively, compared to modern trucks without these after-treatment controls (Preble et al., ES&T 2015). DPFs can have the undesirable side-effect of increasing ultrafine particle (UFP) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions. While SCR systems can partially mitigate DPF-related NO2 increases, these systems can emit nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. We report new results from a study of HDDT emissions conducted in fall 2015 at the Port of Oakland and Caldecott Tunnel in California's San Francisco Bay Area. We report pollutant emission factors (g kg-1) for emitted NOx, NO2, BC, PM2.5, UFP, and N2O on a truck-by-truck basis. Using a roadside license plate recognition system, we categorize each truck by its engine model year and installed after-treatment controls. From this, we develop emissions profiles for trucks with and without DPF and SCR. We evaluate the effectiveness of these devices as a function of their age to determine whether degradation is an issue. We also compare the emission profiles of trucks traveling at low speeds along a level, arterial road en route to the port and at high speeds up a 4% grade highway approaching the tunnel. Given the climate impacts of BC and N2O, we also examine the global warming potential of emissions from trucks with and without DPF and SCR.

An Einstein Observatory SAO-based catalog of B-type stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grillo, F.; Sciortino, S.; Micela, G.; Vaiana, G. S.; Harnden, F. R., Jr.

1992-01-01

About 4000 X-ray images obtained with the Einstein Observatory are used to measure the 0.16-4.0 keV emission from 1545 B-type SAO stars falling in the about 10 percent of the sky surveyed with the IPC. Seventy-four detected X-ray sources with B-type stars are identified, and it is estimated that no more than 15 can be misidentified. Upper limits to the X-ray emission of the remaining stars are presented. In addition to summarizing the X-ray measurements and giving other relevant optical data, the present extensive catalog discusses the reduction process and analyzes selection effects associated with both SAO catalog completeness and IPC target selection procedures. It is concluded that X-ray emission, at the level of Lx not less than 10 exp 30 ergs/s, is quite common in B stars of early spectral types (B0-B3), regardless of luminosity class, but that emission, at the same level, becomes less common, or nonexistent, in later B-type stars.

The Multi-TW Scale Future for Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, Gregory M

This chapter is focused on photovoltaics (PV) and argues that this rapidly developing technology is emerging as one of the most important tools policy makers have for meeting COP21 carbon emissions reduction targets. Focusing on the contributions and advancements that PV is likely to make to the global energy system over the next 10-15 years, it gives a basic overview of mainstream PV conversion technologies, summarizes roughly 40 years of research and industrial history then closes with a brief discussion of how PV and energy storage are likely to impact the world's energy landscape going forward. The chapter closely couplesmore » an increasingly urgent carbon emissions and climate change problem with dramatic PV advancements over the last 10 years in terms of both performance and cost. Ultimately PV is presented as an extremely useful tool for helping to reduce global carbon emissions with little to no increase in electricity costs, in a timeframe that is meaningful to the global carbon emissions problem.« less

The multi-TW scale future for photovoltaics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Gregory

2018-01-01

This chapter is focused on photovoltaics (PV) and argues that this rapidly developing technology is emerging as one of the most important tools policy makers have for meeting COP21 carbon emissions reduction targets. Focusing on the contributions and advancements that PV is likely to make to the global energy system over the next 10-15 years, it gives a basic overview of mainstream PV conversion technologies, summarizes roughly 40 years of research and industrial history then closes with a brief discussion of how PV and energy storage are likely to impact the world's energy landscape going forward. The chapter closely couples an increasingly urgent carbon emissions and climate change problem with dramatic PV advancements over the last 10 years in terms of both performance and cost. Ultimately PV is presented as an extremely useful tool for helping to reduce global carbon emissions with little to no increase in electricity costs, in a timeframe that is meaningful to the global carbon emissions problem.

Providing Decision-Relevant Information for a State Climate Change Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wake, C.; Frades, M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Magnusson, M.; Gittell, R.; Skoglund, C.; Morin, J.

2008-12-01

Carbon Solutions New England (CSNE), a public-private partnership formed to promote collective action to achieve a low carbon society, has been working with the Governor appointed New Hampshire Climate Change Policy Task Force (NHCCTF) to support the development of a state Climate Change Action Plan. CSNE's role has been to quantify the potential carbon emissions reduction, implementation costs, and cost savings at three distinct time periods (2012, 2025, 2050) for a range of strategies identified by the Task Force. These strategies were developed for several sectors (transportation and land use, electricity generation and use, building energy use, and agriculture, forestry, and waste).New Hampshire's existing and projected economic and population growth are well above the regional average, creating additional challenges for the state to meet regional emission reduction targets. However, by pursuing an ambitious suite of renewable energy and energy efficiency strategies, New Hampshire may be able to continue growing while reducing emissions at a rate close to 3% per year up to 2025. This suite includes efficiency improvements in new and existing buildings, a renewable portfolio standard for electricity generation, avoiding forested land conversion, fuel economy gains in new vehicles, and a reduction in vehicle miles traveled. Most (over 80%) of these emission reduction strategies are projected to provide net economic savings in 2025.A collaborative and iterative process was developed among the key partners in the project. The foundation for the project's success included: a diverse analysis team with leadership that was committed to the project, an open source analysis approach, weekly meetings and frequent communication among the partners, interim reporting of analysis, and an established and trusting relationship among the partners, in part due to collaboration on previous projects.To develop decision-relevant information for the Task Force, CSNE addressed several challenges, including: allocating the emission reduction and economic impacts of local- to state-scale mitigation strategies that are in reality integrated on regional and/or national scales; incorporating changes to the details of the strategies over time; identifying and quantifying key variables; choosing appropriate levels of detail for over 100 strategies within the limited analysis timeframe; integrating individual strategies into a coherent whole; and structuring data presentation to maximize transparency of analysis without confusing or overwhelming decision makers.

Towards environmentally sustainable human behaviour: targeting non-conscious and conscious processes for effective and acceptable policies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Meeting climate change targets to limit global warming to 2°C requires rapid and large reductions in demand for products that most contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These include production of bulk materials (e.g. steel and cement), energy supply (e.g. fossil fuels) and animal source foods (particularly ruminants and their products). Effective strategies to meet these targets require transformative changes in supply as well as demand, involving changes in economic, political and legal systems at local, national and international levels, building on evidence from many disciplines. This paper outlines contributions from behavioural science in reducing demand. Grounded in dual-process models of human behaviour (involving non-conscious and conscious processes) this paper considers first why interventions aimed at changing population values towards the environment are usually insufficient or unnecessary for reducing demand although they may be important in increasing public acceptability of policies that could reduce demand. It then outlines two sets of evidence from behavioural science towards effective systems-based strategies, to identify interventions likely to be effective at: (i) reducing demand for products that contribute most to GHG emissions, mainly targeting non-conscious processes and (ii) increasing public acceptability for policy changes to enable these interventions, targeting conscious processes. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Material demand reduction’. PMID:28461435

Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate.

PubMed

Carmichael, Gregory R; Streets, David G; Calori, Giuseppe; Amann, Markus; Jacobson, Mark Z; Hansen, James; Ueda, Hiromasa

2002-11-15

In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO2 emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000, we calculate that SO2 emissions in Asia might grow only to 40-45 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. The main reason for this lower estimate is a decline of SO2 emissions from 1995 to 2000 in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO2. The decline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the closure of small and inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect of the reduction in SO2 emissions in China has been a reduction in acid deposition not only in China but also in Japan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reduce health problems. SO2 emission reductions may increase global warming, but this warming effect could be partially offset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon. How SO2 emissions in the region change in the coming decades will depend on many competing factors (economic growth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuation of current trends would result in sulfur emissions lower than any IPCC forecasts.

Life cycle assessment of biofuels: energy and greenhouse gas balances.

PubMed

Gnansounou, E; Dauriat, A; Villegas, J; Panichelli, L

2009-11-01

The promotion of biofuels as energy for transportation in the industrialized countries is mainly driven by the perspective of oil depletion, the concerns about energy security and global warming. However due to sustainability constraints, biofuels will replace only 10 to 15% of fossil liquid fuels in the transport sector. Several governments have defined a minimum target of GHG emissions reduction for those biofuels that will be eligible to public incentives, for example a 35% emissions reduction in case of biofuels in Members States of the European Union. This article points out the significant biases in estimating GHG balances of biofuels stemming from modelling choices about system definition and boundaries, functional unit, reference systems and allocation methods. The extent to which these choices influence the results is investigated. After performing a comparison and constructive criticism of various modelling choices, the LCA of wheat-to-bioethanol is used as an illustrative case where bioethanol is blended with gasoline at various percentages (E5, E10 and E85). The performance of these substitution options is evaluated as well. The results show a large difference in the reduction of the GHG emissions with a high sensitivity to the following factors: the method used to allocate the impacts between the co-products, the type of reference systems, the choice of the functional unit and the type of blend. The authors come out with some recommendations for basing the estimation of energy and GHG balances of biofuels on principles such as transparency, consistency and accuracy.

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM2.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieno, M.; Heal, M. R.; Williams, M. L.; Carnell, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Stedman, J. R.; Reis, S.

2016-01-01

The reduction of ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a key objective for air pollution control policies in the UK and elsewhere. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 has been identified as a major contributor to adverse human health effects in epidemiological studies and underpins ambient PM2.5 legislation. As a range of emission sources and atmospheric chemistry transport processes contribute to PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric chemistry transport models are an essential tool to assess emissions control effectiveness. The EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to investigate the impact of reductions in UK anthropogenic emissions of primary PM2.5, NH3, NOx, SOx or non-methane VOC on surface concentrations of PM2.5 in the UK for a recent year (2010) and for a future current legislation emission (CLE) scenario (2030). In general, the sensitivity to UK mitigation is rather small. A 30 % reduction in UK emissions of any one of the above components yields (for the 2010 simulation) a maximum reduction in PM2.5 in any given location of ˜ 0.6 µg m-3 (equivalent to ˜ 6 % of the modelled PM2.5). On average across the UK, the sensitivity of PM2.5 concentrations to a 30 % reduction in UK emissions of individual contributing components, for both the 2010 and 2030 CLE baselines, increases in the order NMVOC, NOx, SOx, NH3 and primary PM2.5; however there are strong spatial differences in the PM2.5 sensitivities across the UK. Consequently, the sensitivity of PM2.5 to individual component emissions reductions varies between area and population weighting. Reductions in NH3 have the greatest effect on area-weighted PM2.5. A full UK population weighting places greater emphasis on reductions of primary PM2.5 emissions, which is simulated to be the most effective single-component control on PM2.5 for the 2030 scenario. An important conclusion is that weighting corresponding to the average exposure indicator metric (using data from the 45 model grids containing a monitor whose measurements are used to calculate the UK AEI) further increases the emphasis on the effectiveness of primary PM2.5 emissions reductions (and of NOx emissions reductions) relative to the effectiveness of NH3 emissions reductions. Reductions in primary PM2.5 have the largest impact on the AEI in both 2010 and the 2030 CLE scenario. The summation of the modelled reductions to the UK PM2.5 AEI from 30 % reductions in UK emissions of primary PM2.5, NH3, SOx, NOx and VOC totals 1.17 and 0.82 µg m-3 for the 2010 and 2030 CLE simulations, respectively (not accounting for non-linearity).