An fMRI Study of Risky Decision Making: The Role of Mental Preparation and Conflict.

PubMed

Sohrabi, Ahmad; Smith, Andra M; West, Robert L; Cameron, Ian

2015-10-01

The current study aimed to elucidate the role of preparatory cognitive control in decision making and its neural correlates using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). To this effect, by employing a series of new cognitive tasks, we assessed the role of preparatory cognitive control in monetary (risky) decision making. The participants had to decide between a risky and a safe gamble based on their chance of winning (high or low). In the 2-phase gambling task (similar to Cambridge gambling task), the chance and the gamble were presented at the same time (i.e. in a single phase), but in a new 3-phase gambling task, the chance is presented before the gamble. The tasks ended with a feedback phase. In the 3-phase task, holding the chance in memory to guide their decision enabled the participants to have more control on their risk taking behaviors as shown by activation in a network of brain areas involved in the control and conflict, including dorsal Anterior Cingulate Cortex (dACC), indexed by faster reaction times and better performance in the gambling task, and the temporal lobe, which has a role in holding contextual information. Holding information in memory to guide decision presumably enables the participants to have more control on their risk taking behaviors. The conflict and uncertainty resulting from this risky decision was indexed by the activation of dACC, known to be activated in conflict and cognitive control.

'Informed and uninformed decision making'--women's reasoning, experiences and perceptions with regard to advanced maternal age and delayed childbearing: a meta-synthesis.

PubMed

Cooke, Alison; Mills, Tracey A; Lavender, Tina

2010-10-01

To identify what factors affect women's decisions to delay childbearing, and to explore women's experiences and their perceptions of associated risks. Systematic procedures were used for search strategy, study selection, data extraction and analysis. Findings were synthesised using an approach developed from meta-ethnography. We included qualitative papers, not confined to geographical area (1980-2009). Databases included CINAHL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, ASSIA, MIDIRS, British Nursing Index and the National Research Register. We selected qualitative empirical studies exploring the views and experiences of women of advanced maternal age who were childless or primigravidae with a singleton pregnancy or primiparous. Twelve papers fulfilled the selection criteria and were included for synthesis. Women appear to face an issue of 'informed and uninformed decision making'; those who believe they are informed but may not be, those who are not informed and find out they are at risk once pregnant, and those who are well informed but choose to delay pregnancy anyway. Maternity services could provide information to enable informed choice regarding timing of childbearing. Health professionals need to be mindful of the fact that women delay childbearing for various reasons. A strategy of pre-conception education may be beneficial in informing childbearing decisions. Obstetricians and midwives should be sensitive to the fact that women may not be aware of all the risks associated with delayed childbearing. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk manager formula for success: Influencing decision making.

PubMed

Midgley, Mike

2017-10-01

Providing the ultimate decision makers with a quantitative risk analysis based on thoughtful assessment by the organization's experts enables an efficient decision. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Intelligent Structured Intermittent Auscultation (ISIA): evaluation of a decision-making framework for fetal heart monitoring of low-risk women

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Research-informed fetal monitoring guidelines recommend intermittent auscultation (IA) for fetal heart monitoring for low-risk women. However, the use of cardiotocography (CTG) continues to dominate many institutional maternity settings. Methods A mixed methods intervention study with before and after measurement was undertaken in one secondary level health service to facilitate the implementation of an initiative to encourage the use of IA. The intervention initiative was a decision-making framework called Intelligent Structured Intermittent Auscultation (ISIA) introduced through an education session. Results Following the intervention, medical records review revealed an increase in the use of IA during labour represented by a relative change of 12%, with improved documentation of clinical findings from assessments, and a significant reduction in the risk of receiving an admission CTG (RR 0.75, 95% CI, 0.60 – 0.95, p = 0.016). Conclusion The ISIA informed decision-making framework transformed the practice of IA and provided a mechanism for knowledge translation that enabled midwives to implement evidence-based fetal heart monitoring for low risk women. PMID:24884597

Data for Renewable Energy Planning, Policy, and Investment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, Sarah L

Reliable, robust, and validated data are critical for informed planning, policy development, and investment in the clean energy sector. The Renewable Energy (RE) Explorer was developed to support data-driven renewable energy analysis that can inform key renewable energy decisions globally. This document presents the types of geospatial and other data at the core of renewable energy analysis and decision making. Individual data sets used to inform decisions vary in relation to spatial and temporal resolution, quality, and overall usefulness. From Data to Decisions, a complementary geospatial data and analysis decision guide, provides an in-depth view of these and other considerationsmore » to enable data-driven planning, policymaking, and investment. Data support a wide variety of renewable energy analyses and decisions, including technical and economic potential assessment, renewable energy zone analysis, grid integration, risk and resiliency identification, electrification, and distributed solar photovoltaic potential. This fact sheet provides information on the types of data that are important for renewable energy decision making using the RE Data Explorer or similar types of geospatial analysis tools.« less

Genetic Testing as a Tool to Identify Horses with or at Risk for Ocular Disorders.

PubMed

Bellone, Rebecca R

2017-12-01

Advances in equine genetics and genomics resources have enabled the understanding of some inherited ocular disorders and ocular manifestations. These ocular disorders include congenital stationary night blindness, equine recurrent uveitis, multiple congenital ocular anomalies, and squamous cell carcinoma. Genetic testing can identify horses with or at risk for disease and thus can assist in clinical management. In addition, genetic testing can identify horses that are carriers and thus can inform breeding decisions. Use of genetic tests in management and breeding decisions should aid in reducing the incidence of these disorders and improving the outcomes for horses at highest risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Framework for Context Sensitive Risk-Based Access Control in Medical Information Systems

PubMed Central

Choi, Donghee; Kim, Dohoon; Park, Seog

2015-01-01

Since the access control environment has changed and the threat of insider information leakage has come to the fore, studies on risk-based access control models that decide access permissions dynamically have been conducted vigorously. Medical information systems should protect sensitive data such as medical information from insider threat and enable dynamic access control depending on the context such as life-threatening emergencies. In this paper, we suggest an approach and framework for context sensitive risk-based access control suitable for medical information systems. This approach categorizes context information, estimating and applying risk through context- and treatment-based permission profiling and specifications by expanding the eXtensible Access Control Markup Language (XACML) to apply risk. The proposed framework supports quick responses to medical situations and prevents unnecessary insider data access through dynamic access authorization decisions in accordance with the severity of the context and treatment. PMID:26075013

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program FY13 Status Update for EPRI - RISMC Collaboration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis

2013-09-01

The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced "RISMC toolkit" that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho Nationalmore » Laboratory (INL) is collaborating with the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in order to focus on applications of interest to the U.S. nuclear power industry. This report documents the collaboration activities performed between INL and EPRI during FY2013.« less

Tobacco If You Use...You Lose.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Texas State Dept. of Health, Austin.

This teacher's guide was developed to provide essential information that will enable students to make independent and healthy decisions regarding tobacco use. Each lesson in the guide covers both smoking and smokeless tobacco in an effort to add to the realization that all tobacco products have health risks associated with their use and to dispel…

Dementia Prevention: optimizing the use of observational data for personal, clinical, and public health decision-making.

PubMed

Dacks, Penny A; Andrieu, Sandrine; Blacker, Deborah; Carman, Aaron J; Green, Allan M; Grodstein, Francine; Henderson, Victor W; James, Bryan D; Lane, Rachel F; Lau, Joseph; Lin, Pei-Jung; Reeves, Barnaby C; Shah, Raj C; Vellas, Bruno; Yaffe, Kristine; Yurko-Mauro, Karin; Shineman, Diana W; Bennett, David A; Fillit, Howard M

2014-02-01

Worldwide, over 35 million people suffer from Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. This number is expected to triple over the next 40 years. How can we improve the evidence supporting strategies to reduce the rate of dementia in future generations? The risk of dementia is likely influenced by modifiable factors such as exercise, cognitive activity, and the clinical management of diabetes and hypertension. However, the quality of evidence is limited and it remains unclear whether specific interventions to reduce these modifiable risk factors can, in turn, reduce the risk of dementia. Although randomized controlled trials are the gold-standard for causality, the majority of evidence for long-term dementia prevention derives from, and will likely continue to derive from, observational studies. Although observational research has some unavoidable limitations, its utility for dementia prevention might be improved by, for example, better distinction between confirmatory and exploratory research, higher reporting standards, investment in effectiveness research enabled by increased data-pooling, and standardized exposure and outcome measures. Informed decision-making by the general public on low-risk health choices that could have broad potential benefits could be enabled by internet-based tools and decision-aids to communicate the evidence, its quality, and the estimated magnitude of effect.

Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higgins, Paul

Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making (Final Report) This Department of Energy workshop award (grant #DE-SC0008480) provided primary support for the American Meteorological Society’s study on climate information needs for financial decision making. The goal of this study was to help advance societal decision making by examining the implications of climate variability and change on near-term financial investments. We explored four key topics: 1) the conditions and criteria that influence returns on investment of major financial decisions, 2) the climate sensitivity of financial decisions, 3) climate information needs of financial decision makers, and 4) potential new mechanisms to promotemore » collaboration between scientists and financial decision makers. Better understanding of these four topics will help scientists provide the most useful information and enable financial decision makers to use scientific information most effectively. As a result, this study will enable leaders in business and government to make well-informed choices that help maximize long-term economic success and social wellbeing in the United States The outcomes of the study include a workshop, which brought together leaders from the scientific and financial decision making communities, a publication of the study report, and a public briefing of the results to the policy community. In addition, we will present the results to the scientific community at the AMS Annual Meeting in February, 2014. The study results were covered well by the media including Bloomberg News and E&E News. Upon request, we also briefed the Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) on the outcomes. We presented the results to the policy community through a public briefing in December on Capitol Hill. The full report is publicly available at www.ametsoc.org/cin. Summary of Key Findings The United States invests roughly $1.5 trillion U.S. dollars (USD) in capital assets each year across the public and private sectors (Orszag 2008; United States Census Bureau 2013). Extreme weather events create and exacerbate risks to these financial investments by contributing to: • Direct physical impacts on the investments themselves • Degradation of critical supporting infrastructure • Changes in the availability of key natural resources • Changes to workforce availability or capacity • Changes in the customer base • Supply chain disruptions • Legal liability • Shifts in the regulatory environment • Reductions in credit ratings Even small changes in weather can impact operations in critical economic sectors. As a result, maximizing returns on financial investments depends on accurately understanding and effectively accounting for these risks. Climate variability and change can either exacerbate existing risks or cause new sources of risk to emerge. Managing these risks most effectively will depend on scientific advances and increases in the capacity of financial decision makers to use the scientific knowledge that results. Barriers to using climate information must also be overcome. This study proposes three predefined levels of certainty for communicating about weather and climate risks: 1) possible (i.e., unknown likelihood or less than 50% chance of occurrence), 2) probable (greater than 50% chance of occurrence), and 3) effectively certain (at least 95% chance of occurrence). For example, it is effectively certain that a change in climate will alter weather patterns. It is probable that climate warming will cause increases in the intensity of some extreme events. It is possible that climate change will cause major and widespread disruptions to key planetary life-support services. Key recommendations of this study: 1) Identify climate-related risks and opportunities for financial decision making. 2) Create a framework to translate scientific information in clear and actionable terms for financial decision makers. 3) Analyze existing climate assessments and translate projected impacts into possible, probable, and effectively certain impacts. 4) Improve climate projections with respect to precipitation (timing, amount, and intensity), extreme events, and tails of probability distributions (i.e., low-probability but high-consequence events). 5) Increase spatial resolution of climate projections in order to provide climate information at the scale most relevant to financial investments. 6) Improve projections of the societal consequences of climate impacts through integrated assessments of physical, natural, and social sciences. 7) Create a user-friendly information repository and portal that provides easy access to information relevant to financial decision making. 8) Create and maintain opportunities to bring together financial decision makers, scientists, and service providers. Near-term financial decisions have long-term implications for the United States’ social and economic well-being that depend, in part, on climate variability and change. Investments will be most successful, and will advance the interests of society most effectively, if they are grounded in the best available knowledge & understanding.« less

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2003-01-01

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

Policy decision-making under scientific uncertainty: radiological risk assessment and the role of expert advisory groups.

PubMed

Mossman, Kenneth L

2009-08-01

Standard-setting agencies such as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency depend on advice from external expert advisory groups on matters of public policy and standard-setting. Authoritative bodies including the National Research Council and the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements provide analyses and recommendations that enable the technical and scientific soundness in decision-making. In radiological protection the nature of the scientific evidence is such that risk assessment at radiation doses typically encountered in environmental and occupational settings is highly uncertain, and several policy alternatives are scientifically defensible. The link between science and policy is problematic. The fundamental issue is the failure to properly consider risk assessment, risk communication, and risk management and then consolidate them in a process that leads to sound policy. Authoritative bodies should serve as unbiased brokers of policy choices by providing balanced and objective scientific analyses. As long as the policy-decision environment is characterized by high scientific uncertainty and a lack of values consensus, advisory groups should present unbiased evaluations of all scientifically plausible alternatives and recommend selection criteria that decision makers can use in the policy-setting process. To do otherwise (e.g., by serving as single position advocates) weakens decision-making by eliminating options and narrowing discussions of scientific perspectives. Understanding uncertainties and the limitations on available scientific information and conveying such information to policy makers remain key challenges for the technical and policy communities.

From design to implementation--the Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) program: a descriptive report of an electronic web-based diabetes management program.

PubMed

Ko, Gary T; So, Wing-Yee; Tong, Peter C; Le Coguiec, Francois; Kerr, Debborah; Lyubomirsky, Greg; Tamesis, Beaver; Wolthers, Troels; Nan, Jennifer; Chan, Juliana

2010-05-13

The Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) Program is a web-based program incorporating a comprehensive risk engine, care protocols, and clinical decision support to improve ambulatory diabetes care. The JADE Program uses information technology to facilitate healthcare professionals to create a diabetes registry and to deliver an evidence-based care and education protocol tailored to patients' risk profiles. With written informed consent from participating patients and care providers, all data are anonymized and stored in a databank to establish an Asian Diabetes Database for research and publication purpose. The JADE electronic portal (e-portal: http://www.jade-adf.org) is implemented as a Java application using the Apache web server, the mySQL database and the Cocoon framework. The JADE e-portal comprises a risk engine which predicts 5-year probability of major clinical events based on parameters collected during an annual comprehensive assessment. Based on this risk stratification, the JADE e-portal recommends a care protocol tailored to these risk levels with decision support triggered by various risk factors. Apart from establishing a registry for quality assurance and data tracking, the JADE e-portal also displays trends of risk factor control at each visit to promote doctor-patient dialogues and to empower both parties to make informed decisions. The JADE Program is a prototype using information technology to facilitate implementation of a comprehensive care model, as recommended by the International Diabetes Federation. It also enables health care teams to record, manage, track and analyze the clinical course and outcomes of people with diabetes.

Motion-guided attention promotes adaptive communications during social navigation.

PubMed

Lemasson, B H; Anderson, J J; Goodwin, R A

2013-03-07

Animals are capable of enhanced decision making through cooperation, whereby accurate decisions can occur quickly through decentralized consensus. These interactions often depend upon reliable social cues, which can result in highly coordinated activities in uncertain environments. Yet information within a crowd may be lost in translation, generating confusion and enhancing individual risk. As quantitative data detailing animal social interactions accumulate, the mechanisms enabling individuals to rapidly and accurately process competing social cues remain unresolved. Here, we model how motion-guided attention influences the exchange of visual information during social navigation. We also compare the performance of this mechanism to the hypothesis that robust social coordination requires individuals to numerically limit their attention to a set of n-nearest neighbours. While we find that such numerically limited attention does not generate robust social navigation across ecological contexts, several notable qualities arise from selective attention to motion cues. First, individuals can instantly become a local information hub when startled into action, without requiring changes in neighbour attention level. Second, individuals can circumvent speed-accuracy trade-offs by tuning their motion thresholds. In turn, these properties enable groups to collectively dampen or amplify social information. Lastly, the minority required to sway a group's short-term directional decisions can change substantially with social context. Our findings suggest that motion-guided attention is a fundamental and efficient mechanism underlying collaborative decision making during social navigation.

Sidaway v. Bethlem Royal Hospital.

PubMed

1984-02-23

England's appellate court upheld a ruling that a surgeon who had performed an operation resulting in severe spinal cord damage, without having advised the patient of the risk of such an occurrence, was not liable. The physician's duty of care is discharged by revealing enough information to enable the patient to make a rational decision, with the extent of disclosure to be based on accepted medical practice. The judges rejected, as not in accord with English law, the American doctrine of informed consent based on the patient's right to disclosure of all material risks of significance to a "prudent patient."

WIPCast: Probabilistic Forecasting for Aviation Decision Aid Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

traders, or families planning an outing – manage weather-related risk. By quantifying risk , probabilistic forecasting enables optimization of actions via...confidence interval to the user’s risk tolerance helps drive highly effective and innovative decision support mechanisms for visually quantifying risk for

Outsourcing. Health care organizations are considering strategic goals in making outsourcing decisions.

PubMed

Chin, T L

1997-08-01

More health care organizations are outsourcing the management of some or all of their information systems. Executives at many organizations that have tried outsourcing say it enables them to focus on core competencies, better allocate resources, get more information technology at less cost, share risks of implementing information technology with outsourcers and guarantee access to skilled labor. But the information technology outsourcing market remains relatively small in health care because many CIOs still are wary of turning over control of important functions to outsiders.

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland.

PubMed

McDermott, T K J; Surminski, S

2018-06-13

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

2018-06-01

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Big data and high-performance analytics in structural health monitoring for bridge management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alampalli, Sharada; Alampalli, Sandeep; Ettouney, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) can be a vital tool for effective bridge management. Combining large data sets from multiple sources to create a data-driven decision-making framework is crucial for the success of SHM. This paper presents a big data analytics framework that combines multiple data sets correlated with functional relatedness to convert data into actionable information that empowers risk-based decision-making. The integrated data environment incorporates near real-time streams of semi-structured data from remote sensors, historical visual inspection data, and observations from structural analysis models to monitor, assess, and manage risks associated with the aging bridge inventories. Accelerated processing of dataset is made possible by four technologies: cloud computing, relational database processing, support from NOSQL database, and in-memory analytics. The framework is being validated on a railroad corridor that can be subjected to multiple hazards. The framework enables to compute reliability indices for critical bridge components and individual bridge spans. In addition, framework includes a risk-based decision-making process that enumerate costs and consequences of poor bridge performance at span- and network-levels when rail networks are exposed to natural hazard events such as floods and earthquakes. Big data and high-performance analytics enable insights to assist bridge owners to address problems faster.

From design to implementation - The Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) program: A descriptive report of an electronic web-based diabetes management program

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) Program is a web-based program incorporating a comprehensive risk engine, care protocols, and clinical decision support to improve ambulatory diabetes care. Methods The JADE Program uses information technology to facilitate healthcare professionals to create a diabetes registry and to deliver an evidence-based care and education protocol tailored to patients' risk profiles. With written informed consent from participating patients and care providers, all data are anonymized and stored in a databank to establish an Asian Diabetes Database for research and publication purpose. Results The JADE electronic portal (e-portal: http://www.jade-adf.org) is implemented as a Java application using the Apache web server, the mySQL database and the Cocoon framework. The JADE e-portal comprises a risk engine which predicts 5-year probability of major clinical events based on parameters collected during an annual comprehensive assessment. Based on this risk stratification, the JADE e-portal recommends a care protocol tailored to these risk levels with decision support triggered by various risk factors. Apart from establishing a registry for quality assurance and data tracking, the JADE e-portal also displays trends of risk factor control at each visit to promote doctor-patient dialogues and to empower both parties to make informed decisions. Conclusions The JADE Program is a prototype using information technology to facilitate implementation of a comprehensive care model, as recommended by the International Diabetes Federation. It also enables health care teams to record, manage, track and analyze the clinical course and outcomes of people with diabetes. PMID:20465815

Does Iconicity in Pictographs Matter? The Influence of Iconicity and Numeracy on Information Processing, Decision Making, and Liking in an Eye-Tracking Study.

PubMed

Kreuzmair, Christina; Siegrist, Michael; Keller, Carmen

2017-03-01

Researchers recommend the use of pictographs in medical risk communication to improve people's risk comprehension and decision making. However, it is not yet clear whether the iconicity used in pictographs to convey risk information influences individuals' information processing and comprehension. In an eye-tracking experiment with participants from the general population (N = 188), we examined whether specific types of pictograph icons influence the processing strategy viewers use to extract numerical information. In addition, we examined the effect of iconicity and numeracy on probability estimation, recall, and icon liking. This experiment used a 2 (iconicity: blocks vs. restroom icons) × 2 (scenario: medical vs. nonmedical) between-subject design. Numeracy had a significant effect on information processing strategy, but we found no effect of iconicity or scenario. Results indicated that both icon types enabled high and low numerates to use their default way of processing and extracting the gist of the message from the pictorial risk communication format: high numerates counted icons, whereas low numerates used large-area processing. There was no effect of iconicity in the probability estimation. However, people who saw restroom icons had a higher probability of correctly recalling the exact risk level. Iconicity had no effect on icon liking. Although the effects are small, our findings suggest that person-like restroom icons in pictographs seem to have some advantages for risk communication. Specifically, in nonpersonalized prevention brochures, person-like restroom icons may maintain reader motivation for processing the risk information. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Distributed decision-making in electric power system transmission maintenance scheduling using multi-agent systems (MAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhong

In this work, motivated by the need to coordinate transmission maintenance scheduling among a multiplicity of self-interested entities in restructured power industry, a distributed decision support framework based on multiagent negotiation systems (MANS) is developed. An innovative risk-based transmission maintenance optimization procedure is introduced. Several models for linking condition monitoring information to the equipment's instantaneous failure probability are presented, which enable quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of maintenance activities in terms of system cumulative risk reduction. Methodologies of statistical processing, equipment deterioration evaluation and time-dependent failure probability calculation are also described. A novel framework capable of facilitating distributed decision-making through multiagent negotiation is developed. A multiagent negotiation model is developed and illustrated that accounts for uncertainty and enables social rationality. Some issues of multiagent negotiation convergence and scalability are discussed. The relationships between agent-based negotiation and auction systems are also identified. A four-step MAS design methodology for constructing multiagent systems for power system applications is presented. A generic multiagent negotiation system, capable of inter-agent communication and distributed decision support through inter-agent negotiations, is implemented. A multiagent system framework for facilitating the automated integration of condition monitoring information and maintenance scheduling for power transformers is developed. Simulations of multiagent negotiation-based maintenance scheduling among several independent utilities are provided. It is shown to be a viable alternative solution paradigm to the traditional centralized optimization approach in today's deregulated environment. This multiagent system framework not only facilitates the decision-making among competing power system entities, but also provides a tool to use in studying competitive industry relative to monopolistic industry.

Optimal global value of information trials: better aligning manufacturer and decision maker interests and enabling feasible risk sharing.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

2013-05-01

Risk sharing arrangements relate to adjusting payments for new health technologies given evidence of their performance over time. Such arrangements rely on prospective information regarding the incremental net benefit of the new technology, and its use in practice. However, once the new technology has been adopted in a particular jurisdiction, randomized clinical trials within that jurisdiction are likely to be infeasible and unethical in the cases where they would be most helpful, i.e. with current evidence of positive while uncertain incremental health and net monetary benefit. Informed patients in these cases would likely be reluctant to participate in a trial, preferring instead to receive the new technology with certainty. Consequently, informing risk sharing arrangements within a jurisdiction is problematic given the infeasibility of collecting prospective trial data. To overcome such problems, we demonstrate that global trials facilitate trialling post adoption, leading to more complete and robust risk sharing arrangements that mitigate the impact of costs of reversal on expected value of information in jurisdictions who adopt while a global trial is undertaken. More generally, optimally designed global trials offer distinct advantages over locally optimal solutions for decision makers and manufacturers alike: avoiding opportunity costs of delay in jurisdictions that adopt; overcoming barriers to evidence collection; and improving levels of expected implementation. Further, the greater strength and translatability of evidence across jurisdictions inherent in optimal global trial design reduces barriers to translation across jurisdictions characteristic of local trials. Consequently, efficiently designed global trials better align the interests of decision makers and manufacturers, increasing the feasibility of risk sharing and the expected strength of evidence over local trials, up until the point that current evidence is globally sufficient.

Can data science inform environmental justice and community risk screening for type 2 diabetes?

PubMed

Davis, J Allen; Burgoon, Lyle D

2015-01-01

Having the ability to scan the entire country for potential "hotspots" with increased risk of developing chronic diseases due to various environmental, demographic, and genetic susceptibility factors may inform risk management decisions and enable better environmental public health policies. Develop an approach for community-level risk screening focused on identifying potential genetic susceptibility hotpots. Our approach combines analyses of phenotype-genotype data, genetic prevalence of single nucleotide polymorphisms, and census/geographic information to estimate census tract-level population attributable risks among various ethnicities and total population for the state of California. We estimate that the rs13266634 single nucleotide polymorphism, a type 2 diabetes susceptibility genotype, has a genetic prevalence of 56.3%, 47.4% and 37.0% in Mexican Mestizo, Caucasian, and Asian populations. Looking at the top quintile for total population attributable risk, 16 California counties have greater than 25% of their population living in hotspots of genetic susceptibility for developing type 2 diabetes due to this single genotypic susceptibility factor. This study identified counties in California where large portions of the population may bear additional type 2 diabetes risk due to increased genetic prevalence of a susceptibility genotype. This type of screening can easily be extended to include information on environmental contaminants of interest and other related diseases, and potentially enables the rapid identification of potential environmental justice communities. Other potential uses of this approach include problem formulation in support of risk assessments, land use planning, and prioritization of site cleanup and remediation actions.

Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

2017-12-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

Informed use of patients' records on trusted health care services.

PubMed

Sahama, Tony; Miller, Evonne

2011-01-01

Health care is an information-intensive business. Sharing information in health care processes is a smart use of data enabling informed decision-making whilst ensuring. the privacy and security of patient information. To achieve this, we propose data encryption techniques embedded Information Accountability Framework (IAF) that establishes transitions of the technological concept, thus enabling understanding of shared responsibility, accessibility, and efficient cost effective informed decisions between health care professionals and patients. The IAF results reveal possibilities of efficient informed medical decision making and minimisation of medical errors. Of achieving this will require significant cultural changes and research synergies to ensure the sustainability, acceptability and durability of the IAF.

Water Planning in Phoenix: Managing Risk in the Face of Climatic Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.

2009-12-01

The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) was founded in 2004 to develop scientifically-credible support tools to improve water management decisions in the face of growing climatic uncertainty and rapid urbanization in metropolitan Phoenix. At the center of DCDC's effort is WaterSim, a model that integrates information about water supply from groundwater, the Colorado River, and upstream watersheds and water demand from land use change and population growth. Decision levers enable users to manipulate model outcomes in response to climate change scenarios, drought conditions, population growth rates, technology innovations, lifestyle changes, and policy decisions. WaterSim allows users to examine the risks of water shortage from global climate change, the tradeoffs between groundwater sustainability and lifestyle choices, the effects of various policy decisions, and the consequences of delaying policy for the exposure to risk. WaterSim is an important point of contact for DCDC’s relationships with local decision makers. Knowledge, tools, and visualizations are co-produced—by scientists and policy makers, and the Center’s social scientists mine this co-production process for new insights about model development and application. WaterSim is less a static scientific product and more a dynamic process of engagement between decision makers and scientists.

Framing Options as Choice or Opportunity: Does the Frame Influence Decisions?

PubMed

Abhyankar, Purva; Summers, Barbara A; Velikova, Galina; Bekker, Hilary L

2014-07-01

Health professionals must enable patients to make informed decisions about health care choices through unbiased presentation of all options. This study examined whether presenting the decision as "opportunity" rather than "choice" biased individuals' preferences in the context of trial participation for cancer treatment. Self-selecting healthy women (N = 124) were randomly assigned to the following decision frames: opportunity to take part in the trial (opt-in), opportunity to be removed from the trial (opt-out), and choice to have standard treatment or take part in the trial (choice). The computer-based task required women to make a hypothetical choice about a real-world cancer treatment trial. The software presented the framed scenario, recorded initial preference, presented comprehensive and balanced information, traced participants' use of information during decision making, and recorded final decision. A posttask paper questionnaire assessed perceived risk, attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and satisfaction with decision. Framing influenced women's immediate preferences. Opportunity frames, whether opt-in or opt-out, introduced a bias as they discouraged women from choosing standard treatment. Using the choice frame avoided this bias. The opt-out opportunity frame also affected women's perceived social norm; women felt that others endorsed the trial option. The framing bias was not present once participants had had the opportunity to view detailed information on the options within a patient decision aid format. There were no group differences in information acquisition and final decisions. Sixteen percent changed their initial preference after receiving full information. A "choice" frame, where all treatment options are explicit, is less likely to bias preferences. Presentation of full information in parallel, option-by-attribute format is likely to "de-bias" the decision frame. Tailoring of information to initial preferences would be ill-advised as preferences may change following detailed information. © The Author(s) 2014.

Distinguishing Intentional Releases from Natural Occurrences ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report The purpose of this report was to: (1) survey the scientific literature to determine the current state of the science regarding the presence of Bacillus anthracis in the environment and outbreaks of anthrax; (2) identify characteristics that would enable a screening of information about outbreaks to rapidly assess whether an intentional release was a likely cause (in United States settings) in order to inform remediation decisions; and (3) identify gaps in risk-related knowledge associated with B. anthracis events in the United States.

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality: new approaches in a changing climate.

PubMed

O'Neill, Marie S; Carter, Rebecca; Kish, Jonathan K; Gronlund, Carina J; White-Newsome, Jalonne L; Manarolla, Xico; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2009-10-20

Due to global climate change, the world will, on average, experience a higher number of heat waves, and the intensity and length of these heat waves is projected to increase. Knowledge about the implications of heat exposure to human health is growing, with excess mortality and illness occurring during hot weather in diverse regions. Certain groups, including the elderly, the urban poor, and those with chronic health conditions, are at higher risk. Preventive actions include: establishing heat wave warning systems; making cool environments available (through air conditioning or other means); public education; planting trees and other vegetation; and modifying the built environment to provide proper ventilation and use materials and colors that reduce heat build-up and optimize thermal comfort. However, to inspire local prevention activities, easily understood information about the strategies' benefits needs to be incorporated into decision tools. Integrating heat health information into a comprehensive adaptation planning process can alert local decision-makers to extreme heat risks and provide information necessary to choose strategies that yield the largest health improvements and cost savings. Tools to enable this include web-based programs that illustrate effective methods for including heat health in comprehensive local-level adaptation planning; calculate costs and benefits of several activities; maps showing zones of high potential heat exposure and vulnerable populations in a local area; and public awareness materials and training for implementing preventive activities. A new computer-based decision tool will enable local estimates of heat-related health effects and potential savings from implementing a range of prevention strategies.

Using Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Assessing the Risk of Railway Reconstruction Project in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Yu, Shih-Heng; Chang, Dong-Shang

2014-01-01

This study investigates the risk factors in railway reconstruction project through complete literature reviews on construction project risks and scrutinizing experiences and challenges of railway reconstructions in Taiwan. Based on the identified risk factors, an assessing framework based on the fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (fuzzy MCDM) approach to help construction agencies build awareness of the critical risk factors on the execution of railway reconstruction project, measure the impact and occurrence likelihood for these risk factors. Subjectivity, uncertainty and vagueness within the assessment process are dealt with using linguistic variables parameterized by trapezoid fuzzy numbers. By multiplying the degree of impact and the occurrence likelihood of risk factors, estimated severity values of each identified risk factor are determined. Based on the assessment results, the construction agencies were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. That is, it enables construction agencies of railway reconstruction to plan the appropriate risk responses/strategies to increase the opportunity of project success and effectiveness. PMID:24772014

Factors that influence vaccination decision-making by parents who visit an anthroposophical child welfare center: a focus group study.

PubMed

Harmsen, Irene A; Ruiter, Robert A C; Paulussen, Theo G W; Mollema, Liesbeth; Kok, Gerjo; de Melker, Hester E

2012-01-01

In recent years, parents have become more disparaging towards childhood vaccination. One group that is critical about the National Immunization Program (NIP) and participates less comprises parents with an anthroposophical worldview. Despite the fact that various studies have identified anthroposophists as critical parents with lower vaccination coverage, no research has been done to explore the beliefs underlying their childhood vaccination decision-making. We conducted a qualitative study using three focus groups (n = 16) of parents who visit an anthroposophical child welfare center. Our findings show that participants did not refuse all vaccinations within the Dutch NIP, but mostly refused the Mumps, Measles, and Rubella (MMR) vaccination. Vaccination decisions are influenced by participants' lifestyle, perception of health, beliefs about childhood diseases, perceptions about the risks of diseases, perceptions about vaccine effectiveness and vaccine components, and trust in institutions. Parents indicated that they felt a need for more information. Sufficient references should be provided to sources containing more information about childhood vaccination, especially about the effectiveness of vaccines and vaccine components and the risks, such as possible side effects and benefits of vaccination. This may satisfy parents' information needs and enable them to make a sufficiently informed choice whether or not to vaccinate their child.

The Roles of Science in Local Resilience Policy Development: A Case Study of Three U.S. Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavin, C.; Gupta, N.

2015-12-01

The development and deployment of resilience policies within communities in the United States often respond to the place-based, hazard-specific nature of disasters. Prior to the onset of a disaster, municipal and regional decision makers establish long-term development policies, such as land use planning, infrastructure investment, and economic development policies. Despite the importance of incorporating disaster risk within community decision making, resilience and disaster risk are only one consideration community decision makers weigh when choosing how and whether to establish resilience policy. Using a case study approach, we examine the governance, organizational, management, and policy making processes and the involvement of scientific advice in designing and implementing resilience policy in three U.S. communities: Los Angeles, CA; Norfolk, VA; and Flagstaff, AZ. Disaster mitigation or resilience initiatives were developed and deployed in each community with differing levels and types of scientific engagement. Engagement spanned from providing technical support with traditional risk assessment to direct engagement with community decision makers and design of community resilience outreach. Best practices observed include embedding trusted, independent scientific advisors with strong community credibility within local government agencies, use of interdisciplinary and interdepartmental expert teams with management and technical skillsets, and establishing scientifically-informed disaster and hazard scenarios to enable community outreach. Case study evidence suggest science communication and engagement within and across municipal government agencies and scientifically-informed direct engagement with community stakeholders are effective approaches and roles that disaster risk scientists can fill to support resilience policy development.

A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

2016-01-01

Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate. PMID:27527170

A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management.

PubMed

Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

2016-08-03

Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate.

A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

2014-10-01

Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in order to examine the impact of uncertainties. Finally, the need for further analysis, data collection, or refinement is determined. The first steps of defining the problem and the objectives are critical to constructing an informative decision analysis. Such steps must be undertaken with participation from experts, decision-makers, and stakeholders (defined here as "decision participants"). The basic problem here can be framed as: “What is the best strategy to manage risk associated with NEOs?” Some high-level objectives might be to minimize: mortality and injuries, damage to critical infrastructure (e.g., power, communications and food distribution), ecosystem damage, property damage, ungrounded media and public speculation, resources expended, and overall cost. Another valuable objective would be to maximize inter-agency/government coordination. Some of these objectives (e.g., “minimize mortality”) are readily quantified (e.g., deaths and injuries averted). Others are less so (e.g., “maximize inter-agency/government coordination”), but these can be scaled. Objectives may be inversely related: e.g., a strategy that minimizes mortality may cost more. They are also unlikely to be weighted equally. Defining objectives and assessing their relative weight and interactions requires early engagement with decision participants. High-level decisions include whether to deflect a NEO, when to deflect, what is the best alternative for deflection/destruction, and disaster management strategies if an impact occurs. Important influences include, for example: NEO characteristics (orbital characteristics, diameter, mass, spin and composition), impact probability and location, interval between discovery and projected impact date, interval between discovery and deflection target date, costs of information collection, costs and technological feasibility of deflection alternatives, risks of deflection campaigns, requirements for inter-agency and international cooperation, and timing of informing the public. The analytical aspects of decision analysis center on estimation of the expected value (i.e. utility) of different alternatives. The expected value of an alternative is a function of the probability-weighted consequences, estimated using Bayesian calculations in a decision tree or influence diagram model. The result is a set of expected-value estimates for all alternatives evaluated that enables a ranking; the higher the expected value, the more preferred the alternative. A common way to include resource limitations is by framing the decision analysis in the context of economics (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis). An important aspect of decision analysis in the NEO risk management case is the ability, known as sensitivity analysis, to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty upon decisions. The simplest way to evaluate uncertainty associated with the information used in a decision analysis is to adjust the input values one at a time (or simultaneously) to examine how the results change. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to adjust the inputs over ranges or distributions of values; statistical means then are used to determine the most influential variables. These techniques yield a measure known as the expected value of imperfect information. This value is highly informative, because it allows the decision-maker with imperfect information to evaluate the impact of using experiments, tests, or data collection (e.g. Earth-based observations, space-based remote sensing, etc.) to refine judgments; and indeed to estimate how much should be spent to reduce uncertainty.

Describing treatment effects to patients.

PubMed

Moxey, Annette; O'Connell, Dianne; McGettigan, Patricia; Henry, David

2003-11-01

To examine the impact of different presentations of equivalent information (framing) on treatment decisions faced by patients. A systematic review of the published literature was conducted. English language publications allocating participants to different frames were retrieved using electronic and bibliographic searches. Two reviewers examined each article for inclusion, and assessed methodological quality. Study characteristics were tabulated and where possible, relative risks (RR; 95% confidence intervals) were calculated to estimate intervention effects. Thirty-seven articles, yielding 40 experimental studies, were included. Studies examined treatment (N = 24), immunization (N = 5), or health behavior scenarios (N = 11). Overall, active treatments were preferred when outcomes were described in terms of relative rather than absolute risk reductions or number needed to treat. Surgery was preferred to other treatments when treatment efficacy was presented in a positive frame (survival) rather than a negative frame (mortality) (relative risk [RR] = 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39 to 1.64). Framing effects were less obvious for immunization and health behavior scenarios. Those with little interest in the behavior at baseline were influenced by framing, particularly when information was presented as gains. In studies judged to be of good methodological quality and/or examining actual decisions, the framing effect, although still evident, was less convincing compared to the results of all included studies. Framing effects varied with the type of scenario, responder characteristics, scenario manipulations, and study quality. When describing treatment effects to patients, expressing the information in more than one way may present a balanced view to patients and enable them to make informed decisions.

Distributed collaborative environments for virtual capability-based planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQuay, William K.

2003-09-01

Distributed collaboration is an emerging technology that will significantly change how decisions are made in the 21st century. Collaboration involves two or more geographically dispersed individuals working together to share and exchange data, information, knowledge, and actions. The marriage of information, collaboration, and simulation technologies provides the decision maker with a collaborative virtual environment for planning and decision support. This paper reviews research that is focusing on the applying open standards agent-based framework with integrated modeling and simulation to a new Air Force initiative in capability-based planning and the ability to implement it in a distributed virtual environment. Virtual Capability Planning effort will provide decision-quality knowledge for Air Force resource allocation and investment planning including examining proposed capabilities and cost of alternative approaches, the impact of technologies, identification of primary risk drivers, and creation of executable acquisition strategies. The transformed Air Force business processes are enabled by iterative use of constructive and virtual modeling, simulation, and analysis together with information technology. These tools are applied collaboratively via a technical framework by all the affected stakeholders - warfighter, laboratory, product center, logistics center, test center, and primary contractor.

Ethical issues in perinatal mental health research.

PubMed

Brandon, Anna R; Shivakumar, Geetha; Lee, Simon Craddock; Inrig, Stephen J; Sadler, John Z

2009-11-01

To review the background of current ethical standards for the conduct of perinatal mental health research and describe the ethical challenges in this research domain. Current literature reflects a growing sentiment in the scientific community that having no information regarding the impact of psychiatric treatment on the mother and developing fetus/infant poses dangers that may exceed the risks involved in research. However, without sufficient consensus across the scientific community, both regulatory bodies and perinatal researchers find themselves without a framework for decision making that satisfactorily limits the risks and facilitates the benefits of participation of pregnant and lactating women in clinical research. Psychiatric research in perinatal mental health is critically important as it enables clinicians and patients to participate in informed decision-making concerning treatment for psychiatric disorders. Specific areas of concern include fetal safety, maternal risk, the therapeutic misconception, commercial interests, forensic/legal issues, the informed consent process, and study design. Developing guidelines that address ethical challenges and include the views and concerns of multiple stakeholders could improve the access of perinatal women to the benefits of participation in mental health research in addition to providing evidence-based mental healthcare for this subpopulation.

Shared decision making: what do clinicians need to know and why should they bother?

PubMed

Hoffmann, Tammy C; Légaré, France; Simmons, Magenta B; McNamara, Kevin; McCaffery, Kirsten; Trevena, Lyndal J; Hudson, Ben; Glasziou, Paul P; Del Mar, Christopher B

2014-07-07

Shared decision making enables a clinician and patient to participate jointly in making a health decision, having discussed the options and their benefits and harms, and having considered the patient's values, preferences and circumstances. It is not a single step to be added into a consultation, but a process that can be used to guide decisions about screening, investigations and treatments. The benefits of shared decision making include enabling evidence and patients' preferences to be incorporated into a consultation; improving patient knowledge, risk perception accuracy and patient-clinician communication; and reducing decisional conflict, feeling uninformed and inappropriate use of tests and treatments. Various approaches can be used to guide clinicians through the process. We elaborate on five simple questions that can be used: What will happen if the patient waits and watches? What are the test or treatment options? What are the benefits and harms of each option? How do the benefits and harms weigh up for the patient? Does the patient have enough information to make a choice? Although shared decision making can occur without tools, various types of decision support tools now exist to facilitate it. Misconceptions about shared decision making are hampering its implementation. We address the barriers, as perceived by clinicians. Despite numerous international initiatives to advance shared decision making, very little has occurred in Australia. Consequently, we are lagging behind many other countries and should act urgently.

Achieving a Risk-Informed Decision-Making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the evolution of risk management (RM) at NASA. The aim of the RM approach at NASA is to promote an approach that is heuristic, proactive, and coherent across all of NASA. Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is a decision making process that uses a diverse set of performance measures along with other considerations within a deliberative process to inform decision making. RIDM is invoked for key decisions such as architecture and design decisions, make-buy decisions, and budget reallocation. The RIDM process and how it relates to the continuous Risk Management (CRM) process is reviewed.

A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frost, Susan; Goebel, Kai Frank; Galvan, Jose Ramon

2012-01-01

Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government.

Combat Service Support (CSS) Enabler Functional Assessment (CEFA)

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-07-01

CDR), Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) with a tool to aid decision making related to mitigating E/I peacetime (programmatic) and wartime risks...not be fielded by Fiscal Year (FY) 10. Based on their estimates, any decisions , especially reductions in manpower, which rely on the existence of the E...Support (CSS) enablers/initiatives (E/I), thereby providing the Commander (CDR), Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) with a tool to aid decision

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-07-27

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

PubMed

Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

2013-04-21

For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making.

What is fracking?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, J. Quinn

2016-03-01

Fracking is the common term for the use of hydraulic fracturing during oil and gas recovery. During a hydraulic fracturing treatment, water and additives are injected into a target reservoir generating one or more fractures that enable oil and gas to flow to the borehole. Since the 1940's, hydraulic fracturing has been used to increase the production of traditional (typically sandstone) reservoirs with very little controversy. Hydraulic fracturing developments in the 1990's (specifically horizontal drilling and slickwater) enabled large-scale commercial recovery of oil and gas from tight shale reservoirs. This recovery has led to dramatic decreases in the prices of oil and gas and has made fracking highly controversial. While there are environmental risks associated the recovery and use of any natural resource, it is important to understand the specific environmental risks associated with hydraulic fracturing. Some risks like the generation of earthquakes are misunderstood. Many risks like drinking water contamination can be reduced through proper practices and regulation. While others like large water use are inherent to the process. In all cases, reliable publicly-accessible information and research are necessary for making informed decisions about fracking. US DOE Grant #DE-FG02-04ER1556.

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

How are genetic test results being used by Australian life insurers?

PubMed

Barlow-Stewart, K; Liepins, M; Doble, A; Otlowski, M

2018-06-11

In Australia, the USA and many Asian countries the life insurance industry is self-regulated. Individuals must disclose genetic test results known to them in applications for new or updated policies including cover for critical care, income protection and death. There is limited information regarding how underwriting decisions are made for policies with such disclosures. The Australian Financial Services Council (FSC) provided de-identified data collected on applications with genetic test result disclosure from its life insurance member companies 2010-2013 to enable repetition of an independent examination undertaken of applications 1999-2003: age; gender; genetic condition; testing result; decision-maker; and insurance cover. Data was classified as to test result alone or additional other factors relevant to risk and decision. Where necessary, the FSC facilitated clarification by insurers. 345/548 applications related to adult-onset conditions. The genetic test result solely influenced the decision in 165/345 applications: positive (n = 23), negative (n = 139) and pending (n = 3). Detailed analyses of the decisions in each of these result categories are presented with specific details of 11 test cases. Policies with standard decisions were provided for all negative test results with evidence of reassessment of previous non-standard decisions and 20/23 positive results with recognition of risk reduction strategies. Disclosure of positive results for breast/ovarian cancer, Lynch syndrome and hereditary spastic paraplegia, and three pending results, generated non-standard decisions. The examination demonstrates some progress in addressing concerns in regard to utilisation of genetic test information but the self-regulatory system in Australia only goes some way in meeting internationally recommended best practice.

Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey.

PubMed

Hembroff, Larry A; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Wills, Celia E

2004-11-16

Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes). The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% - 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the context of a telephone interview requiring remembering rates given. The lack of effect of gender and race suggests that a standard strategy of presenting absolute risk information may improve patient decision-making.

Communicating during a pandemic: information the public wants about the disease and new vaccines and drugs.

PubMed

Henrich, Natalie; Holmes, Bev

2011-07-01

To prepare for pandemics, countries are creating pandemic preparedness plans. These plans frequently include crisis communication strategies that recommend conducting pre-crisis audience research to increase the effectiveness and relevance of communication with the public. To begin understanding the communication needs of the public and health care workers, 11 focus groups were conducted in Vancouver, Canada, in 2006 and 2007 to identify what information people want to receive and how they want to receive it. In the event of a pandemic, participants want to know their risk of infection and how sick they could become if infected. To make decisions about using vaccines and drugs, they want information that enables them to assess the risks of using the products. The public prefers to receive this information from family doctors, the Internet, and schools. Health care workers prefer to receive information in e-mails and in-services.

Predicting Drug Safety and Communicating Risk: Benefits of a Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

2018-03-01

Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualizations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods.

An inexact mixed risk-aversion two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, W; Wang, B; Xie, Y L; Huang, G H; Liu, L

2015-02-01

Uncertainties exist in the water resources system, while traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk-neutral and compares the random variables (e.g., total benefit) to identify the best decisions. To deal with the risk issues, a risk-aversion inexact two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model was a hybrid methodology of interval-parameter programming, conditional value-at-risk measure, and a general two-stage stochastic programming framework. The method extends on the traditional two-stage stochastic programming method by enabling uncertainties presented as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. It could not only provide information on the benefits of the allocation plan to the decision makers but also measure the extreme expected loss on the second-stage penalty cost. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of water resources management. Results showed that that could help managers generate feasible and balanced risk-aversion allocation plans, and analyze the trade-offs between system stability and economy.

Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission Command

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-25

military decision making process (MDMP). Other changes to structure reveal administrative and safety risk information (i.e. personal operated vehicle... decision making , it requires commanders to have the capacity to make an informed , intuitive decision . Uncertainty...analysis. His situation required him to embrace uncertainty, and exercise an informed intuition to make a risk decision to create opportunity

Online, Interactive Option Grid Patient Decision Aids and their Effect on User Preferences.

PubMed

Scalia, Peter; Durand, Marie-Anne; Kremer, Jan; Faber, Marjan; Elwyn, Glyn

2018-01-01

Randomized trials have shown that patient decision aids can modify users' preferred healthcare options, but research has yet to identify the attributes embedded in these tools that cause preferences to shift. The aim of this study was to investigate people's preferences as they used decision aids for 5 health decisions and, for each of the following: 1) determine if using the interactive Option Grid led to a pre-post shift in preferences; 2) determine which frequently asked questions (FAQs) led to preference shifts; 3) determine the FAQs that were rated as the most important as users compared options. Interactive Option Grid decision aids enable users to view attributes of available treatment or screening options, rate their importance, and specify their preferred options before and after decision aid use. The McNemar-Bowker paired test was used to compare stated pre-post preferences. Multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to investigate possible associations between covariates and preference shifts. Overall, 626 users completed the 5 most-used tools: 1) Amniocentesis test: yes or no? ( n = 73); 2) Angina: treatment options ( n = 88); 3) Breast cancer: surgical options ( n = 265); 4) Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test: yes or no? ( n = 82); 5) Statins for heart disease risk: yes or no? ( n = 118). The breast cancer, PSA, and statins Option Grid decision aids generated significant preference shifts. Generally, users shifted their preference when presented with the description of the available treatment options, and the risk associated with each option. The use of decision aids for some, but not all health decisions, was accompanied by a shift in user preferences. Users typically valued information associated with risks, and chose more risk averse options after completing the interactive tool.

Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.

Describing Treatment Effects to Patients

PubMed Central

Moxey, Annette; O'Connell, Dianne; McGettigan, Patricia; Henry, David

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE To examine the impact of different presentations of equivalent information (framing) on treatment decisions faced by patients. DESIGN A systematic review of the published literature was conducted. English language publications allocating participants to different frames were retrieved using electronic and bibliographic searches. Two reviewers examined each article for inclusion, and assessed methodological quality. Study characteristics were tabulated and where possible, relative risks (RR; 95% confidence intervals) were calculated to estimate intervention effects. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Thirty-seven articles, yielding 40 experimental studies, were included. Studies examined treatment (N = 24), immunization (N = 5), or health behavior scenarios (N = 11). Overall, active treatments were preferred when outcomes were described in terms of relative rather than absolute risk reductions or number needed to treat. Surgery was preferred to other treatments when treatment efficacy was presented in a positive frame (survival) rather than a negative frame (mortality) (relative risk [RR] = 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39 to 1.64). Framing effects were less obvious for immunization and health behavior scenarios. Those with little interest in the behavior at baseline were influenced by framing, particularly when information was presented as gains. In studies judged to be of good methodological quality and/or examining actual decisions, the framing effect, although still evident, was less convincing compared to the results of all included studies. CONCLUSIONS Framing effects varied with the type of scenario, responder characteristics, scenario manipulations, and study quality. When describing treatment effects to patients, expressing the information in more than one way may present a balanced view to patients and enable them to make informed decisions. PMID:14687282

User Oriented Techniques to Support Interaction and Decision Making with Large Educational Databases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Almuhaidib, Saud M. Y.

2007-01-01

Information Technology is developing rapidly and providing policy/decision makers with large amounts of information that require processing and analysis. Decision support systems (DSS) aim to provide tools that not only help such analyses, but enable the decision maker to experiment and simulate the effects of different policies and selection…

Effective heart disease prediction system using data mining techniques.

PubMed

Singh, Poornima; Singh, Sanjay; Pandi-Jain, Gayatri S

2018-01-01

The health care industries collect huge amounts of data that contain some hidden information, which is useful for making effective decisions. For providing appropriate results and making effective decisions on data, some advanced data mining techniques are used. In this study, an effective heart disease prediction system (EHDPS) is developed using neural network for predicting the risk level of heart disease. The system uses 15 medical parameters such as age, sex, blood pressure, cholesterol, and obesity for prediction. The EHDPS predicts the likelihood of patients getting heart disease. It enables significant knowledge, eg, relationships between medical factors related to heart disease and patterns, to be established. We have employed the multilayer perceptron neural network with backpropagation as the training algorithm. The obtained results have illustrated that the designed diagnostic system can effectively predict the risk level of heart diseases.

Model-Informed Drug Development for Ixazomib, an Oral Proteasome Inhibitor.

PubMed

Gupta, Neeraj; Hanley, Michael J; Diderichsen, Paul M; Yang, Huyuan; Ke, Alice; Teng, Zhaoyang; Labotka, Richard; Berg, Deborah; Patel, Chirag; Liu, Guohui; van de Velde, Helgi; Venkatakrishnan, Karthik

2018-02-15

Model-informed drug development (MIDD) was central to the development of the oral proteasome inhibitor ixazomib, facilitating internal decisions (switch from body surface area (BSA)-based to fixed dosing, inclusive phase III trials, portfolio prioritization of ixazomib-based combinations, phase III dose for maintenance treatment), regulatory review (model-informed QT analysis, benefit-risk of 4 mg dose), and product labeling (absolute bioavailability and intrinsic/extrinsic factors). This review discusses the impact of MIDD in enabling patient-centric therapeutic optimization during the development of ixazomib. © 2017 The Authors. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Junior physician's use of Web 2.0 for information seeking and medical education: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Hughes, Benjamin; Joshi, Indra; Lemonde, Hugh; Wareham, Jonathan

2009-10-01

Web 2.0 internet tools and methods have attracted considerable attention as a means to improve health care delivery. Despite evidence demonstrating their use by medical professionals, there is no detailed research describing how Web 2.0 influences physicians' daily clinical practice. Hence this study examines Web 2.0 use by 35 junior physicians in clinical settings to further understand their impact on medical practice. Diaries and interviews encompassing 177 days of internet use or 444 search incidents, analyzed via thematic analysis. Results indicate that 53% of internet visits employed user-generated or Web 2.0 content, with Google and Wikipedia used by 80% and 70% of physicians, respectively. Despite awareness of information credibility risks with Web 2.0 content, it has a role in information seeking for both clinical decisions and medical education. This is enabled by the ability to cross check information and the diverse needs for background and non-verified information. Web 2.0 use represents a profound departure from previous learning and decision processes which were normally controlled by senior medical staff or medical schools. There is widespread concern with the risk of poor quality information with Web 2.0 use, and the manner in which physicians are using it suggest effective use derives from the mitigating actions by the individual physician. Three alternative policy options are identified to manage this risk and improve efficiency in Web 2.0's use.

Use of the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: human health risk assessment of the use of a pyrethroid in bed netting

PubMed Central

Doe, John E.; Lander, Deborah R.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Heard, Nina; Hines, Ronald N.; Lowit, Anna B.; Pastoor, Timothy; Phillips, Richard D.; Sargent, Dana; Sherman, James H.; Young Tanir, Jennifer; Embry, Michelle R.

2016-01-01

Abstract The HESI-coordinated RISK21 roadmap and matrix are tools that provide a transparent method to compare exposure and toxicity information and assess whether additional refinement is required to obtain the necessary precision level for a decision regarding safety. A case study of the use of a pyrethroid, “pseudomethrin,” in bed netting to control malaria is presented to demonstrate the application of the roadmap and matrix. The evaluation began with a problem formulation step. The first assessment utilized existing information pertaining to the use and the class of chemistry. At each stage of the step-wise approach, the precision of the toxicity and exposure estimates were refined as necessary by obtaining key data which enabled a decision on safety to be made efficiently and with confidence. The evaluation demonstrated the concept of using existing information within the RISK21 matrix to drive the generation of additional data using a value-of-information approach. The use of the matrix highlighted whether exposure or toxicity required further investigation and emphasized the need to address the default uncertainty factor of 100 at the highest tier of the evaluation. It also showed how new methodology such as the use of in vitro studies and assays could be used to answer the specific questions which arise through the use of the matrix. The matrix also serves as a useful means to communicate progress to stakeholders during an assessment of chemical use. PMID:26517449

Cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Payne, Rupert A

2012-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is a major, growing, worldwide problem. It is important that individuals at risk of developing cardiovascular disease can be effectively identified and appropriately stratified according to risk. This review examines what we understand by the term risk, traditional and novel risk factors, clinical scoring systems, and the use of risk for informing prescribing decisions. Many different cardiovascular risk factors have been identified. Established, traditional factors such as ageing are powerful predictors of adverse outcome, and in the case of hypertension and dyslipidaemia are the major targets for therapeutic intervention. Numerous novel biomarkers have also been described, such as inflammatory and genetic markers. These have yet to be shown to be of value in improving risk prediction, but may represent potential therapeutic targets and facilitate more targeted use of existing therapies. Risk factors have been incorporated into several cardiovascular disease prediction algorithms, such as the Framingham equation, SCORE and QRISK. These have relatively poor predictive power, and uncertainties remain with regards to aspects such as choice of equation, different risk thresholds and the roles of relative risk, lifetime risk and reversible factors in identifying and treating at-risk individuals. Nonetheless, such scores provide objective and transparent means of quantifying risk and their integration into therapeutic guidelines enables equitable and cost-effective distribution of health service resources and improves the consistency and quality of clinical decision making. PMID:22348281

Postnatal Psychosocial Assessment and Clinical Decision-Making, a Descriptive Study.

PubMed

Sims, Deborah; Fowler, Cathrine

2018-05-18

The aim of this study is to describe experienced child and family health nurses' clinical decision-making during a postnatal psychosocial assessment. Maternal emotional wellbeing in the postnatal year optimises parenting and promotes infant development. Psychosocial assessment potentially enables early intervention and reduces the risk of a mental disorder occurring during this time of change. Assessment accuracy, and the interventions used are determined by the standard of nursing decision-making. A qualitative methodology was employed to explore decision-making behaviour when conducting a postnatal psychosocial assessment. This study was conducted in an Australian early parenting organisation. Twelve experienced child and family health nurses were interviewed. A detailed description of a postnatal psychosocial assessment process was obtained using a critical incident technique. Template analysis was used to determine the information domains the nurses accessed, and content analysis was used to determine the nurses' thinking strategies, to make clinical decisions from this assessment. The nurses described 24 domains of information and used 17 thinking strategies, in a variety of combinations. The four information domains most commonly used were parenting, assessment tools, women-determined issues and sleep. The seven thinking strategies most commonly used were searching for information, forming relationships between the information, recognising a pattern, drawing a conclusion, setting priorities, providing explanations for the information and judging the value of the information. The variety and complexity of the clinical decision-making involved in postnatal psychosocial assessment confirms that the nurses use information appropriately and within their scope of nursing practice. The standard of clinical decision-making determines the results of the assessment and the optimal access to care. Knowledge of the information domains and the decision-making strategies that experienced nurses use for psychosocial assessment potentially improves practice by providing a framework for education and mentoring. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

NASA Langley Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate Technology Assessment/Portfolio Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavanaugh, Stephen; Chytka, Trina; Arcara, Phil; Jones, Sharon; Stanley, Doug; Wilhite, Alan W.

2006-01-01

Systems analysis develops and documents candidate mission and architectures, associated system concepts, enabling capabilities and investment strategies to achieve NASA s strategic objectives. The technology assessment process connects the mission and architectures to the investment strategies. In order to successfully implement a technology assessment, there is a need to collect, manipulate, analyze, document, and disseminate technology-related information. Information must be collected and organized on the wide variety of potentially applicable technologies, including: previous research results, key technical parameters and characteristics, technology readiness levels, relationships to other technologies, costs, and potential barriers and risks. This information must be manipulated to facilitate planning and documentation. An assessment is included of the programmatic and technical risks associated with each technology task as well as potential risk mitigation plans. Risks are assessed and tracked in terms of likelihood of the risk occurring and consequences of the risk if it does occur. The risk assessments take into account cost, schedule, and technical risk dimensions. Assessment data must be simplified for presentation to decision makers. The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center has a wealth of experience in performing Technology Assessment and Portfolio Analysis as this has been a business line since 1978.

Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

PubMed

Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

2015-01-01

Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care. Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. Methods We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. Results The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Conclusions Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making. PMID:23601912

Publishing web-based guidelines using interactive decision models.

PubMed

Sanders, G D; Nease, R F; Owens, D K

2001-05-01

Commonly used methods for guideline development and dissemination do not enable developers to tailor guidelines systematically to specific patient populations and update guidelines easily. We developed a web-based system, ALCHEMIST, that uses decision models and automatically creates evidence-based guidelines that can be disseminated, tailored and updated over the web. Our objective was to demonstrate the use of this system with clinical scenarios that provide challenges for guideline development. We used the ALCHEMIST system to develop guidelines for three clinical scenarios: (1) Chlamydia screening for adolescent women, (2) antiarrhythmic therapy for the prevention of sudden cardiac death; and (3) genetic testing for the BRCA breast-cancer mutation. ALCHEMIST uses information extracted directly from the decision model, combined with the additional information from the author of the decision model, to generate global guidelines. ALCHEMIST generated electronic web-based guidelines for each of the three scenarios. Using ALCHEMIST, we demonstrate that tailoring a guideline for a population at high-risk for Chlamydia changes the recommended policy for control of Chlamydia from contact tracing of reported cases to a population-based screening programme. We used ALCHEMIST to incorporate new evidence about the effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) and demonstrate that the cost-effectiveness of use of ICDs improves from $74 400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained to $34 500 per QALY gained. Finally, we demonstrate how a clinician could use ALCHEMIST to incorporate a woman's utilities for relevant health states and thereby develop patient-specific recommendations for BRCA testing; the patient-specific recommendation improved quality-adjusted life expectancy by 37 days. The ALCHEMIST system enables guideline developers to publish both a guideline and an interactive decision model on the web. This web-based tool enables guideline developers to tailor guidelines systematically, to update guidelines easily, and to make the underlying evidence and analysis transparent for users.

The use of mental models in chemical risk protection: developing a generic workplace methodology.

PubMed

Cox, Patrick; Niewöhmer, Jörg; Pidgeon, Nick; Gerrard, Simon; Fischhoff, Baruch; Riley, Donna

2003-04-01

We adopted a comparative approach to evaluate and extend a generic methodology to analyze the different sets of beliefs held about chemical hazards in the workplace. Our study mapped existing knowledge structures about the risks associated with the use of perchloroethylene and rosin-based solder flux in differing workplaces. "Influence diagrams" were used to represent beliefs held by chemical experts; "user models" were developed from data elicited from open-ended interviews with the workplace users of the chemicals. The juxtaposition of expert and user understandings of chemical risks enabled us to identify knowledge gaps and misunderstandings and to reinforce appropriate sets of safety beliefs and behavior relevant to chemical risk communications. By designing safety information to be more relevant to the workplace context of users, we believe that employers and employees may gain improved knowledge about chemical hazards in the workplace, such that better chemical risk management, self-protection, and informed decision making develop over time.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision propagation in numerical modeling using both classical Monte-Carlo probabilistic approach and also so-called Hybrid approach using possibility theory. Second approach deals with new multi-criteria decision-making methods which consider information imperfection, source reliability, importance and conflict, using fuzzy sets as well as possibility and belief function theories. Implemented methods consider information imperfection propagation and information fusion in total aggregation methods such as AHP (Saaty, 1980) or partial aggregation methods such as the Electre outranking method (see Soft Electre Tri ) or decisions in certain but also risky or uncertain contexts (see new COWA-ER and FOWA-ER- Cautious and Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Averaging-Evidential Reasoning). For example, the ER-MCDA methodology considers expert assessment as a multi-criteria decision process based on imperfect information provided by more or less heterogeneous, reliable and conflicting sources: it mixes AHP, fuzzy sets theory, possibility theory and belief function theory using DSmT (Dezert-Smarandache Theory) framework which provides powerful fusion rules.

Nesting songbirds assess spatial heterogeneity of predatory chipmunks by eavesdropping on their vocalizations.

PubMed

Emmering, Quinn C; Schmidt, Kenneth A

2011-11-01

1. Information benefits organisms living in a heterogeneous world by reducing uncertainty associated with decision making. For breeding passerines, information reliably associated with nest failure, such as predator activity, can be used to adjust breeding decisions leading to higher reproductive success. 2. Predator vocalizations may provide a source of current information for songbirds to assess spatial heterogeneity in risk that enables them to make appropriate nest-site and territory placement decisions. 3. To determine whether ground-nesting passerines eavesdrop on a common nest predator, the eastern chipmunk (Tamias striatus), we conducted a playback experiment to create spatial heterogeneity in perceived predation risk. We established three types of playback plots broadcasting: (i) chipmunk vocalizations (increased risk), (ii) frog calls (procedural control) and (iii) no playback (silent control). We conducted point counts from plot centres to compare bird activity among treatments and measured the distance of two ground-nesting species' nests, ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) and veery (Catharus fuscescens), from playback stations. 4. Ground-nesting birds significantly reduced their activities up to 30 m from plot centres in response to playbacks of chipmunk calls suggesting an adjustment of territory placement or a reduction of overt behaviours (e.g. singing frequency). In contrast, less vulnerable canopy-nesting species showed no effect across experimental plots. Correspondingly, veeries and ovenbirds nested significantly further from chipmunk playback stations relative to control stations. Interestingly, the magnitude of this response was more than twice as high in ovenbirds than in veeries. 5. Our findings indicate that some breeding passerines may eavesdrop on predator communication, providing an explanation for how some birds assess spatial heterogeneity in predation risk to make breeding site decisions. Thus, heterospecific eavesdropping may be a common feature of predator-prey interactions that allows birds to avoid nest predators in space and provide greater stability to predator-prey dynamics. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

2017-12-01

Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk.

Genomic data into everyday work of a medical practitioner - digital tools for decision-making.

PubMed

Jokiranta, Sakari; Hotakainen, Kristina; Salonen, Iiris; Pöllänen, Pasi; Hänninen, Kai-Petri; Forsström, Jari; Kunnamo, Ilkka

Recent technological development has enabled fast and cost-effective simultaneous analyses of several gene variants or sequence of even the whole genome. For medical practitioners this has created challenges although genomic information may be clinically useful in new applications such as finding out individual risk for diseases influenced by as many as 50,000 variable DNA regions or in detecting pharmacogenetic risks prior to prescribing a medicine. New digital tools have paved the way for utilization of genomic data via easy access and clear clinical interpretation for both doctor and patient. In this review we describe some of these tools and applications for clinical use.

Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

PubMed

Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

2012-12-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

PubMed

Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

2017-02-01

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

2010-05-01

Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning context has been worked out. The generated results contribute significantly in the fields of (1) warning decision and warning levels, (2) warning dissemination and warning message content, (3) early warning chain planning, (4) increasing response capabilities and protective systems, (5) emergency relief and (6) enhancing communities' awareness and preparedness towards tsunami threats. Additionally examples will be given on the potentials of an operational use of risk information in early warning systems as first experiences exist for the tsunami early warning center in Jakarta, Indonesia. Beside this the importance of linking national level early warning information with tsunami risk information available at the local level (e.g. linking warning message information on expected intensity with respective tsunami hazard zone maps at community level for effective evacuation) will be demonstrated through experiences gained in three pilot areas in Indonesia. The presentation seeks to provide new insights on benefits using risk information in early warning and will provide further evidence that practical use of risk information is an important and indispensable component of end-to-end early warning.

Water stress, water salience, and the implications for water supply planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2017-12-01

Effectively addressing the water supply challenges posed by urbanization and climate change requires a holistic understanding of the water supply system, including the impact of human behavior on system dynamics. Decision makers have limits to available information and information processing capacity, and their attention is not equally distributed among risks. The salience of a given risk is higher when increased attention is directed to it and though perceived risk may increase, real risk does not change. Relevant to water supply planning is how and when water stress results in an increased salience of water risks. This work takes a socio-hydrological approach to develop a water supply planning model that includes water consumption as an endogenous variable, in the context of Las Vegas, NV. To understand the benefits and limitations of this approach, this model is compared to a traditional planning model that uses water consumption scenarios. Both models are applied to project system reliability and water stress under four streamflow and demographic scenarios, and to assess supply side responses to changing conditions. The endogenous demand model enables the identification of feedback between both supply and demand management decisions on future water consumption and system performance. This model, while specific to the Las Vegas case, demonstrates a prototypical modeling framework capable of examining water-supply demand interactions by incorporating water stress driven conservation.

Development of a real-time clinical decision support system upon the web mvc-based architecture for prostate cancer treatment

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A real-time clinical decision support system (RTCDSS) with interactive diagrams enables clinicians to instantly and efficiently track patients' clinical records (PCRs) and improve their quality of clinical care. We propose a RTCDSS to process online clinical informatics from multiple databases for clinical decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer based on Web Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture, by which the system can easily be adapted to different diseases and applications. Methods We designed a framework upon the Web MVC-based architecture in which the reusable and extractable models can be conveniently adapted to other hospital information systems and which allows for efficient database integration. Then, we determined the clinical variables of the prostate cancer treatment based on participating clinicians' opinions and developed a computational model to determine the pretreatment parameters. Furthermore, the components of the RTCDSS integrated PCRs and decision factors for real-time analysis to provide evidence-based diagrams upon the clinician-oriented interface for visualization of treatment guidance and health risk assessment. Results The resulting system can improve quality of clinical treatment by allowing clinicians to concurrently analyze and evaluate the clinical markers of prostate cancer patients with instantaneous clinical data and evidence-based diagrams which can automatically identify pretreatment parameters. Moreover, the proposed RTCDSS can aid interactions between patients and clinicians. Conclusions Our proposed framework supports online clinical informatics, evaluates treatment risks, offers interactive guidance, and provides real-time reference for decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer. The developed clinician-oriented interface can assist clinicians in conveniently presenting evidence-based information to patients and can be readily adapted to an existing hospital information system and be easily applied in other chronic diseases. PMID:21385459

Development of a real-time clinical decision support system upon the Web MVC-based architecture for prostate cancer treatment.

PubMed

Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Chang, Chih-Hung; Li, Tsai-Chung; Liang, Wen-Miin; Wang, Jong-Yi Wang

2011-03-08

A real-time clinical decision support system (RTCDSS) with interactive diagrams enables clinicians to instantly and efficiently track patients' clinical records (PCRs) and improve their quality of clinical care. We propose a RTCDSS to process online clinical informatics from multiple databases for clinical decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer based on Web Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture, by which the system can easily be adapted to different diseases and applications. We designed a framework upon the Web MVC-based architecture in which the reusable and extractable models can be conveniently adapted to other hospital information systems and which allows for efficient database integration. Then, we determined the clinical variables of the prostate cancer treatment based on participating clinicians' opinions and developed a computational model to determine the pretreatment parameters. Furthermore, the components of the RTCDSS integrated PCRs and decision factors for real-time analysis to provide evidence-based diagrams upon the clinician-oriented interface for visualization of treatment guidance and health risk assessment. The resulting system can improve quality of clinical treatment by allowing clinicians to concurrently analyze and evaluate the clinical markers of prostate cancer patients with instantaneous clinical data and evidence-based diagrams which can automatically identify pretreatment parameters. Moreover, the proposed RTCDSS can aid interactions between patients and clinicians. Our proposed framework supports online clinical informatics, evaluates treatment risks, offers interactive guidance, and provides real-time reference for decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer. The developed clinician-oriented interface can assist clinicians in conveniently presenting evidence-based information to patients and can be readily adapted to an existing hospital information system and be easily applied in other chronic diseases.

I.C.I.S. Inter-Campus Information System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alvir, Howard P.

A decision making system for educators to enable them to plan and make information-based decisions is briefly described. The information system's characteristics are explained, along with a summary of information systems in higher education. A self-test criteria of effectiveness and feedback and evaluation methods are also included. A request form…

Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

Next generation terminology infrastructure to support interprofessional care planning.

PubMed

Collins, Sarah; Klinkenberg-Ramirez, Stephanie; Tsivkin, Kira; Mar, Perry L; Iskhakova, Dina; Nandigam, Hari; Samal, Lipika; Rocha, Roberto A

2017-11-01

Develop a prototype of an interprofessional terminology and information model infrastructure that can enable care planning applications to facilitate patient-centered care, learn care plan linkages and associations, provide decision support, and enable automated, prospective analytics. The study steps included a 3 step approach: (1) Process model and clinical scenario development, and (2) Requirements analysis, and (3) Development and validation of information and terminology models. Components of the terminology model include: Health Concerns, Goals, Decisions, Interventions, Assessments, and Evaluations. A terminology infrastructure should: (A) Include discrete care plan concepts; (B) Include sets of profession-specific concerns, decisions, and interventions; (C) Communicate rationales, anticipatory guidance, and guidelines that inform decisions among the care team; (D) Define semantic linkages across clinical events and professions; (E) Define sets of shared patient goals and sub-goals, including patient stated goals; (F) Capture evaluation toward achievement of goals. These requirements were mapped to AHRQ Care Coordination Measures Framework. This study used a constrained set of clinician-validated clinical scenarios. Terminology models for goals and decisions are unavailable in SNOMED CT, limiting the ability to evaluate these aspects of the proposed infrastructure. Defining and linking subsets of care planning concepts appears to be feasible, but also essential to model interprofessional care planning for common co-occurring conditions and chronic diseases. We recommend the creation of goal dynamics and decision concepts in SNOMED CT to further enable the necessary models. Systems with flexible terminology management infrastructure may enable intelligent decision support to identify conflicting and aligned concerns, goals, decisions, and interventions in shared care plans, ultimately decreasing documentation effort and cognitive burden for clinicians and patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Propulsion Risk Reduction Activities for Non-Toxic Cryogenic Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Timothy D.; Klem, Mark D.; Fisher, Kenneth

2010-01-01

The Propulsion and Cryogenics Advanced Development (PCAD) Project s primary objective is to develop propulsion system technologies for non-toxic or "green" propellants. The PCAD project focuses on the development of non-toxic propulsion technologies needed to provide necessary data and relevant experience to support informed decisions on implementation of non-toxic propellants for space missions. Implementation of non-toxic propellants in high performance propulsion systems offers NASA an opportunity to consider other options than current hypergolic propellants. The PCAD Project is emphasizing technology efforts in reaction control system (RCS) thruster designs, ascent main engines (AME), and descent main engines (DME). PCAD has a series of tasks and contracts to conduct risk reduction and/or retirement activities to demonstrate that non-toxic cryogenic propellants can be a feasible option for space missions. Work has focused on 1) reducing the risk of liquid oxygen/liquid methane ignition, demonstrating the key enabling technologies, and validating performance levels for reaction control engines for use on descent and ascent stages; 2) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for liquid oxygen/liquid methane ascent engines; and 3) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for deep throttling liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen descent engines. The progress of these risk reduction and/or retirement activities will be presented.

Propulsion Risk Reduction Activities for Nontoxic Cryogenic Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Timothy D.; Klem, Mark D.; Fisher, Kenneth L.

2010-01-01

The Propulsion and Cryogenics Advanced Development (PCAD) Project s primary objective is to develop propulsion system technologies for nontoxic or "green" propellants. The PCAD project focuses on the development of nontoxic propulsion technologies needed to provide necessary data and relevant experience to support informed decisions on implementation of nontoxic propellants for space missions. Implementation of nontoxic propellants in high performance propulsion systems offers NASA an opportunity to consider other options than current hypergolic propellants. The PCAD Project is emphasizing technology efforts in reaction control system (RCS) thruster designs, ascent main engines (AME), and descent main engines (DME). PCAD has a series of tasks and contracts to conduct risk reduction and/or retirement activities to demonstrate that nontoxic cryogenic propellants can be a feasible option for space missions. Work has focused on 1) reducing the risk of liquid oxygen/liquid methane ignition, demonstrating the key enabling technologies, and validating performance levels for reaction control engines for use on descent and ascent stages; 2) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for liquid oxygen/liquid methane ascent engines; and 3) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for deep throttling liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen descent engines. The progress of these risk reduction and/or retirement activities will be presented.

Federated health information architecture: Enabling healthcare providers and policymakers to use data for decision-making.

PubMed

Kumar, Manish; Mostafa, Javed; Ramaswamy, Rohit

2018-05-01

Health information systems (HIS) in India, as in most other developing countries, support public health management but fail to enable healthcare providers to use data for delivering quality services. Such a failure is surprising, given that the population healthcare data that the system collects are aggregated from patient records. An important reason for this failure is that the health information architecture (HIA) of the HIS is designed primarily to serve the information needs of policymakers and program managers. India has recognised the architectural gaps in its HIS and proposes to develop an integrated HIA. An enabling HIA that attempts to balance the autonomy of local systems with the requirements of a centralised monitoring agency could meet the diverse information needs of various stakeholders. Given the lack of in-country knowledge and experience in designing such an HIA, this case study was undertaken to analyse HIS in the Bihar state of India and to understand whether it would enable healthcare providers, program managers and policymakers to use data for decision-making. Based on a literature review and data collected from interviews with key informants, this article proposes a federated HIA, which has the potential to improve HIS efficiency; provide flexibility for local innovation; cater to the diverse information needs of healthcare providers, program managers and policymakers; and encourage data-based decision-making.

Application of a web-based Decision Support System in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2013-04-01

Increasingly, risk information is widely available with the help of advanced technologies such as earth observation satellites, global positioning technologies, coupled with hazard modeling and analysis, and geographical information systems (GIS). Even though it exists, no effort will be put into action if it is not properly presented to the decision makers. These information need to be communicated clearly and show its usefulness so that people can make better informed decision. Therefore, communicating available risk information has become an important challenge and decision support systems have been one of the significant approaches which can help not only in presenting risk information to the decision makers but also in making efficient decisions while reducing human resources and time needed. In this study, the conceptual framework of an internet-based decision support system is presented to highlight its importance role in risk management framework and how it can be applied in case study areas chosen. The main purpose of the proposed system is to facilitate the available risk information in risk reduction by taking into account of the changes in climate, land use and socio-economic along with the risk scenarios. It allows the users to formulate, compare and select risk reduction scenarios (mainly for floods and landslides) through an enhanced participatory platform with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the decision making process. It is based on the three-tier (client-server) architecture which integrates web-GIS plus DSS functionalities together with cost benefit analysis and other supporting tools. Embedding web-GIS provides its end users to make better planning and informed decisions referenced to a geographical location, which is the one of the essential factors in disaster risk reduction programs. Different risk reduction measures of a specific area (local scale) will be evaluated using this web-GIS tool, available risk scenarios obtained from Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model and the knowledge collected from experts. The visualization of the risk reduction scenarios can also be shared among the users on the web to support the on-line participatory process. In addition, cost-benefit ratios of the different risk reduction scenarios can be prepared in order to serve as inputs for high-level decision makers. The most appropriate risk reduction scenarios will be chosen using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method by weighting different parameters according to the preferences and criteria defined by the users. The role of public participation has been changing from one-way communication between authorities, experts, stakeholders and citizens towards more intensive two-way interaction. Involving the affected public and interest groups can enhance the level of legitimacy, transparency, and confidence in the decision making process. Due to its important part in decision making, online participatory tool is included in the DSS in order to allow the involved stakeholders interactively in risk reduction and be aware of the existing vulnerability conditions of the community. Moreover, it aims to achieve a more transparent and better informed decision-making process. The system is under in progress and the first tools implemented will be presented showing the wide possibilities of new web technologies which can have a great impact on the decision making process. It will be applied in four pilot areas in Europe: French Alps, North Eastern Italy, Romania and Poland. Nevertheless, the framework will be designed and implemented in a way to be applicable in any other regions.

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria and Geographical information system for coastal vulnerability analysis in Morocco: The case of Mohammedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahri, Meryem; Maanan, Mohamed; Hakdaoui, Mustapha

2016-04-01

This paper shows a method to assess the vulnerability of coastal risks such as coastal erosion or submarine applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and spatial analysis techniques with Geographic Information System (GIS). The coast of the Mohammedia located in Morocco was chosen as the study site to implement and validate the proposed framework by applying a GIS-FAHP based methodology. The coastal risk vulnerability mapping follows multi-parametric causative factors as sea level rise, significant wave height, tidal range, coastal erosion, elevation, geomorphology and distance to an urban area. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology enables the calculation of corresponding criteria weights. The result shows that the coastline of the Mohammedia is characterized by a moderate, high and very high level of vulnerability to coastal risk. The high vulnerability areas are situated in the east at Monika and Sablette beaches. This technical approach is based on the efficiency of the Geographic Information System tool based on Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process to help decision maker to find optimal strategies to minimize coastal risks.

Balancing the presentation of information and options in patient decision aids: an updated review.

PubMed

Abhyankar, Purva; Volk, Robert J; Blumenthal-Barby, Jennifer; Bravo, Paulina; Buchholz, Angela; Ozanne, Elissa; Vidal, Dale Colins; Col, Nananda; Stalmeier, Peep

2013-01-01

Standards for patient decision aids require that information and options be presented in a balanced manner; this requirement is based on the argument that balanced presentation is essential to foster informed decision making. If information is presented in an incomplete/non-neutral manner, it can stimulate cognitive biases that can unduly affect individuals' knowledge, perceptions of risks and benefits, and, ultimately, preferences. However, there is little clarity about what constitutes balance, and how it can be determined and enhanced. We conducted a literature review to examine the theoretical and empirical evidence related to balancing the presentation of information and options. A literature search related to patient decision aids and balance was conducted on Medline, using MeSH terms and PubMed; this search supplemented the 2011 Cochrane Collaboration's review of patient decision aids trials. Only English language articles relevant to patient decision making and addressing the balance of information and options were included. All members of the team independently screened clusters of articles; uncertainties were resolved by seeking review by another member. The team then worked in sub-groups to extract and synthesise data on theory, definitions, and evidence reported in these studies. A total of 40 articles met the inclusion criteria. Of these, six explained the rationale for balancing the presentation of information and options. Twelve defined "balance"; the definition of "balance" that emerged is as follows: "The complete and unbiased presentation of the relevant options and the information about those options-in content and in format-in a way that enables individuals to process this information without bias". Ten of the 40 articles reported assessing the balance of the relevant decision aid. All 10 did so exclusively from the users' or patients' perspective, using a five-point Likert-type scale. Presenting information in a side-by-side display form was associated with more respondents (ranging from 70% to 96%) judging the information as "balanced". There is a need for comparative studies investigating different ways to improve and measure balance in the presentation of information and options in patient decision aids.

Balancing the presentation of information and options in patient decision aids: an updated review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Standards for patient decision aids require that information and options be presented in a balanced manner; this requirement is based on the argument that balanced presentation is essential to foster informed decision making. If information is presented in an incomplete/non-neutral manner, it can stimulate cognitive biases that can unduly affect individuals’ knowledge, perceptions of risks and benefits, and, ultimately, preferences. However, there is little clarity about what constitutes balance, and how it can be determined and enhanced. We conducted a literature review to examine the theoretical and empirical evidence related to balancing the presentation of information and options. Methods A literature search related to patient decision aids and balance was conducted on Medline, using MeSH terms and PubMed; this search supplemented the 2011 Cochrane Collaboration’s review of patient decision aids trials. Only English language articles relevant to patient decision making and addressing the balance of information and options were included. All members of the team independently screened clusters of articles; uncertainties were resolved by seeking review by another member. The team then worked in sub-groups to extract and synthesise data on theory, definitions, and evidence reported in these studies. Results A total of 40 articles met the inclusion criteria. Of these, six explained the rationale for balancing the presentation of information and options. Twelve defined “balance”; the definition of “balance” that emerged is as follows: “The complete and unbiased presentation of the relevant options and the information about those options—in content and in format—in a way that enables individuals to process this information without bias”. Ten of the 40 articles reported assessing the balance of the relevant decision aid. All 10 did so exclusively from the users’ or patients’ perspective, using a five-point Likert-type scale. Presenting information in a side-by-side display form was associated with more respondents (ranging from 70% to 96%) judging the information as “balanced”. Conclusion There is a need for comparative studies investigating different ways to improve and measure balance in the presentation of information and options in patient decision aids. PMID:24625214

Information technology in pharmacovigilance: Benefits, challenges, and future directions from industry perspectives.

PubMed

Lu, Zhengwu

2009-01-01

Risk assessment during clinical product development needs to be conducted in a thorough and rigorous manner. However, it is impossible to identify all safety concerns during controlled clinical trials. Once a product is marketed, there is generally a large increase in the number of patients exposed, including those with comorbid conditions and those being treated with concomitant medications. Therefore, postmarketing safety data collection and clinical risk assessment based on observational data are critical for evaluating and characterizing a product's risk profile and for making informed decisions on risk minimization. Information science promises to deliver effective e-clinical or e-health solutions to realize several core benefits: time savings, high quality, cost reductions, and increased efficiencies with safer and more efficacious medicines. The development and use of standard-based pharmacovigilance system with integration connection to electronic medical records, electronic health records, and clinical data management system holds promise as a tool for enabling early drug safety detections, data mining, results interpretation, assisting in safety decision making, and clinical collaborations among clinical partners or different functional groups. The availability of a publicly accessible global safety database updated on a frequent basis would further enhance detection and communication about safety issues. Due to recent high-profile drug safety problems, the pharmaceutical industry is faced with greater regulatory enforcement and increased accountability demands for the protection and welfare of patients. This changing climate requires biopharmaceutical companies to take a more proactive approach in dealing with drug safety and pharmacovigilance.

Bioinformatics for Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Kathy A.

2006-01-01

For the purpose of this paper, bioinformatics is defined as the application of computer technology to the management of biological information. It can be thought of as the science of developing computer databases and algorithms to facilitate and expedite biological research. This is a crosscutting capability that supports nearly all human health areas ranging from computational modeling, to pharmacodynamics research projects, to decision support systems within autonomous medical care. Bioinformatics serves to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the life sciences research program. It provides data, information, and knowledge capture which further supports management of the bioastronautics research roadmap - identifying gaps that still remain and enabling the determination of which risks have been addressed.

Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing

PubMed Central

Cameron, Linda D.; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M.; Klein, William M. P.

2017-01-01

Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory. PMID:29225669

Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing.

PubMed

Cameron, Linda D; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P

2017-05-01

Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory.

Psychological aspects of individualized choice and reproductive autonomy in prenatal screening.

PubMed

Hewison, Jenny

2015-01-01

Probably the main purpose of reproductive technologies is to enable people who choose to do so to avoid the birth of a baby with a disabling condition. However the conditions women want information about and the 'price' they are willing to pay for obtaining that information vary enormously. Individual women have to arrive at their own prenatal testing choices by 'trading off' means and ends in order to resolve the dilemmas facing them. We know very little about how individuals make these trade-offs, so it is difficult to predict how new technologies will affect their choices and preferences. Uptake decisions can be expected to change, especially in the group of women who now are put off by some aspect of the current screening approach, where the avoidance of miscarriage risk may have provided a kind of 'psychological shelter', protecting a lot of people from having to make other decisions. Technologies such as Pre-implantation Genetic Diagnosis may remove a second 'psychological shelter' because they offer the means of avoiding the birth of an affected child without terminating a pregnancy. Even if new technologies will make some decisions easier in terms of their cognitive demands, they will also create new dilemmas and decision making will not necessarily become less stressful in emotional terms. Key challenges concern information and decision-making. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Three-Stage Decision-Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Zhang, Di; Guedes Soares, C

2017-12-01

A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three-stage decision-making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e.g., maritime safety administration, NUC ship, and ships passing by) under resource constraint in the first stage, (2) to select the most feasible options by comparing the similarity of the new case and existing cases in the second stage, and (3) to make decisions considering the cooperation between the involved organizations by using a developed Bayesian network in the third stage. Consequently, this work provides a useful tool to achieve well-organized management of NUC ships. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Information Dominance in Military Decision Making.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-06-04

This study considers how ABCS (Army Battle Command System) capabilities achieve information dominance and how they influence the military decision...making process. The work examines how ABCS enables commanders and staffs to achieve information dominance at the brigade and battalion levels. Further...future digitized systems that will gain information dominance for the future commander. It promotes the continued development information dominance technologies

Generic Sensor Data Fusion Services for Web-enabled Environmental Risk Management and Decision-Support Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeur, Zoheir; Middleton, Stuart; Veres, Galina; Zlatev, Zlatko; Salvo, Nicola

2010-05-01

The advancement of smart sensor technology in the last few years has led to an increase in the deployment of affordable sensors for monitoring the environment around Europe. This is generating large amounts of sensor observation information and inevitably leading to problems about how to manage large volumes of data as well as making sense out the data for decision-making. In addition, the various European Directives (Water Framework Diectives, Bathing Water Directives, Habitat Directives, etc.. ) which regulate human activities in the environment and the INSPIRE Directive on spatial information management regulations have implicitely led the designated European Member States environment agencies and authorities to put in place new sensor monitoring infrastructure and share information about environmental regions under their statutory responsibilities. They will need to work cross border and collectively reach environmental quality standards. They will also need to regularly report to the EC on the quality of the environments of which they are responsible and make such information accessible to the members of the public. In recent years, early pioneering work on the design of service oriented architecture using sensor networks has been achieved. Information web-services infrastructure using existing data catalogues and web-GIS map services can now be enriched with the deployment of new sensor observation and data fusion and modelling services using OGC standards. The deployment of the new services which describe sensor observations and intelligent data-processing using data fusion techniques can now be implemented and provide added value information with spatial-temporal uncertainties to the next generation of decision support service systems. The new decision support service systems have become key to implement across Europe in order to comply with EU environmental regulations and INSPIRE. In this paper, data fusion services using OGC standards with sensor observation data streams are described in context of a geo-distributed service infrastructure specialising in multiple environmental risk management and decision-support. The sensor data fusion services are deployed and validated in two use cases. These are respectively concerned with: 1) Microbial risks forecast in bathing waters; and 2) Geohazards in urban zones during underground tunneling activities. This research was initiated in the SANY Integrated Project(www.sany-ip.org) and funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme.

Impact of a decision aid about stratified ovarian cancer risk-management on women's knowledge and intentions: a randomised online experimental survey study.

PubMed

Meisel, Susanne F; Freeman, Maddie; Waller, Jo; Fraser, Lindsay; Gessler, Sue; Jacobs, Ian; Kalsi, Jatinderpal; Manchanda, Ranjit; Rahman, Belinda; Side, Lucy; Wardle, Jane; Lanceley, Anne; Sanderson, Saskia C

2017-11-16

Risk stratification using genetic and other types of personal information could improve current best available approaches to ovarian cancer risk reduction, improving identification of women at increased risk of ovarian cancer and reducing unnecessary interventions for women at lower risk. Amounts of information given to women may influence key informed decision-related outcomes, e.g. knowledge. The primary aim of this study was to compare informed decision-related outcomes between women given one of two versions (gist vs. extended) of a decision aid about stratified ovarian cancer risk-management. This was an experimental survey study comparing the effects of brief (gist) information with lengthier, more detailed (extended) information on cognitions relevant to informed decision-making about participating in risk-stratified ovarian cancer screening. Women with no personal history of ovarian cancer were recruited through an online survey company and randomised to view the gist (n = 512) or extended (n = 519) version of a website-based decision aid and completed an online survey. Primary outcomes were knowledge and intentions. Secondary outcomes included attitudes (values) and decisional conflict. There were no significant differences between the gist and extended conditions in knowledge about ovarian cancer (time*group interaction: F = 0.20, p = 0.66) or intention to participate in ovarian cancer screening based on genetic risk assessment (t(1029) = 0.43, p = 0.67). There were also no between-groups differences in secondary outcomes. In the sample overall (n = 1031), knowledge about ovarian cancer increased from before to after exposure to the decision aid (from 5.71 to 6.77 out of a possible 10: t = 19.04, p < 0.001), and 74% of participants said that they would participate in ovarian cancer screening based on genetic risk assessment. No differences in knowledge or intentions were found between women who viewed the gist version and women who viewed the extended version of a decision aid about risk-stratified ovarian cancer screening. Knowledge increased for women in both decision aid groups. Further research is needed to determine the ideal volume and type of content for decision aids about stratified ovarian cancer risk-management. This study was registered with the ISRCTN registry; registration number: ISRCTN48627877 .

Using the decision ladder to understand road user decision making at actively controlled rail level crossings.

PubMed

Mulvihill, Christine M; Salmon, Paul M; Beanland, Vanessa; Lenné, Michael G; Read, Gemma J M; Walker, Guy H; Stanton, Neville A

2016-09-01

Rail level crossings (RLXs) represent a key strategic risk for railways worldwide. Despite enforcement and engineering countermeasures, user behaviour at RLXs can often confound expectations and erode safety. Research in this area is limited by a relative absence of insights into actual decision making processes and a focus on only a subset of road user types. One-hundred and sixty-six road users (drivers, motorcyclists, cyclists and pedestrians) completed a diary entry for each of 457 naturalistic encounters with RLXs when a train was approaching. The final eligible sample comprised 94 participants and 248 encounters at actively controlled crossings where a violation of the active warnings was possible. The diary incorporated Critical Decision Method probe questions, which enabled user responses to be mapped onto Rasmussen's decision ladder. Twelve percent of crossing events were non-compliant. The underlying decision making was compared to compliant events and a reference decision model to reveal important differences in the structure and type of decision making within and between road user groups. The findings show that engineering countermeasures intended to improve decision making (e.g. flashing lights), may have the opposite effect for some users because the system permits a high level of flexibility for circumvention. Non-motorised users were more likely to access information outside of the warning signals because of their ability to achieve greater proximity to the train tracks and the train itself. The major conundrum in resolving these issues is whether to restrict the amount of time and information available to users so that it cannot be used for circumventing the system or provide more information to help users make safe decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk perception and decision processes underlying informed consent to research participation.

PubMed

Reynolds, William W; Nelson, Robert M

2007-11-01

According to the rational choice model, informed consent should consist of a systematic, step-by-step evaluation of all information pertinent to the treatment or research participation decision. Research shows that people frequently deviate from this normative model, however, employing decision-making shortcuts, or heuristics. In this paper we report findings from a qualitative study of 32 adolescents and (their) 31 parents who were recruited from two Northeastern US hospitals and asked to consider the risks of and make hypothetical decisions about research participation. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of how diabetic and at-risk adolescents (i.e., those who are obese and/or have a family history of diabetes) and their parents perceive risks and make decisions about research participation. Using data collected from adolescents and parents, we identify heuristic decision processes in which participant perceptions of risk magnitude, which are formed quickly and intuitively and appear to be based on affective responses to information, are far more prominent and central to the participation decision than are perceptions of probability. We discuss participants' use of decision-making heuristics in the context of recent research on affect and decision processes, and we consider the implications of these findings for researchers.

Risk factors and decision criteria for intensive chemotherapy in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Malfuson, Jean-Valère; Etienne, Anne; Turlure, Pascal; de Revel, Thierry; Thomas, Xavier; Contentin, Nathalie; Terré, Christine; Rigaudeau, Sophie; Bordessoule, Dominique; Vey, Norbert; Gardin, Claude; Dombret, Hervé

2008-12-01

There is a need for standardization of treatment decisions in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia. The aim of the present study was to analyze the decisional value of poor risk factors in 416 elderly patients treated in the ALFA-9803 trial in order to derive a decisional index. Standard multivariate analysis was used to identify risk factors for overall survival. Risk factors were then considered as good decision tools if associated with a frequency >10% and a false positive rate <10% in predicting overall survival as poor as observed after low-dose cytarabine therapy (25% survival or less at 12 months). Among six independent risk factors (age, performance status, white blood cell count, hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index, infection at baseline, and cytogenetics), cytogenetics was the only potent, independent decision tool. High hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index scores or infections were found too rarely to guide further decisions. The three other factors (age, performance status, and white cell count) needed to be combined to provide a good specificity. The proposed decisional index, therefore, included high-risk cytogenetics and/or the presence of at least two of the following criteria: age > or =75 years, performance status > or =2, and white cell count > or =50 x 10(9)/L. This simple two-class decisional index, which was validated in an independent patient set, enabled us to discriminate 100 patients (24%) who had an estimated overall survival of only 19% at 12 months, with a good 9% false positive rate. We propose waiting for cytogenetic information before making treatment decisions in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia. Those patients with unfavorable cytogenetics, as well as patients with at least two of the following features, age > or =75 years, performance status > or =2, and white cell count > or =50 x 10(9)/L, should not be considered for standard intensive chemotherapy (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00363025).

Empirically-derived Knowledge on Adolescent Assent to Pediatric Biomedical Research

PubMed Central

Brody, Janet L.; Annett, Robert D.; Turner, Charles; Dalen, Jeanne; Yoon, Yesel

2013-01-01

Background There has been a recent growth in empirical research on assent with pediatric populations, due in part, to the demand for increased participation of this population in biomedical research. Despite methodological limitations, studies of adolescent capacities to assent have advanced and identified a number of salient psychological and social variables that are key to understanding assent. Methods The authors review a subsection of the empirical literature on adolescent assent focusing primarily on asthma and cancer therapeutic research; adolescent competencies to assent to these studies; perceptions of protocol risk and benefit; the affects of various social context variables on adolescent research participation decision making; and the inter-relatedness of these psychological and social factors. Results Contemporary studies of assent, using multivariate methods and updated approaches to statistical modeling, have revealed the importance of studying the intercorrelation between adolescents’ psychological capacities and their ability to employ these capacities in family and medical decision-making contexts. Understanding these dynamic relationships will enable researchers and ethicists to develop assent procedures that respect the authority of parents, while at the same time accord adolescents appropriate decision-making autonomy. Conclusions Reviews of empirical literature on the assent process reveal that adolescents possess varying capacities for biomedical research participation decision making depending on their maturity and the social context in which the decision is made. The relationship between adolescents and physician-investigators can be used to attenuate concerns about research protocols and clarify risk and benefit information so adolescents, in concert with their families, can make the most informed and ethical decisions. Future assent researchers will be better able to navigate the complicated interplay of contextual and developmental factors and develop the empirical bases for research enrollment protocols that will support increased involvement of adolescents in biomedical research. PMID:23914304

Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

PubMed Central

Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

2015-01-01

Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

Informal information for web-based engineering catalogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Richard D.; Culley, Stephen J.; Hicks, Ben J.

2001-10-01

Success is highly dependent on the ability of a company to efficiently produce optimal designs. In order to achieve this companies must minimize time to market and possess the ability to make fully informed decisions at the early phase of the design process. Such decisions may include the choice of component and suppliers, as well as cost and maintenance considerations. Computer modeling and electronic catalogues are becoming the preferred medium for the selection and design of mechanical components. In utilizing these techniques, the designer demands the capability to identify, evaluate and select mechanical components both quantitatively and qualitatively. Quantitative decisions generally encompass performance data included in the formal catalogue representation. It is in the area of qualitative decisions that the use of what the authors call 'Informal Information' is of crucial importance. Thus, 'Informal Information' must often be incorporated into the selection process and selection systems. This would enable more informed decisions to be made quicker, without the need for information retrieval via discussion with colleagues in the design environment. This paper provides an overview of the use of electronic information in the design of mechanical systems, including a discussion of limitations of current technology. The importance of Informal Information is discussed and the requirements for association with web based electronic catalogues are developed. This system is based on a flexible XML schema and enables the storage, classification and recall of Informal Information packets. Furthermore, a strategy for the inclusion of Informal Information is proposed, and an example case is used to illustrate the benefits.

Dynamic Attack Tree Tool for Risk Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Black, Karl

2012-03-13

DATT enables interactive visualization, qualitative analysis and recording of cyber and other forms of risk. It facilitates dynamic risk-based approaches (as opposed to static compliance-based) to security and risk management in general. DATT allows decision makers to consistently prioritize risk mitigation strategies and quickly see where attention is most needed across the enterprise.

Use of multicriteria decision analysis for assessing the benefit and risk of over-the-counter analgesics.

PubMed

Moore, Andrew; Crossley, Anne; Ng, Bernard; Phillips, Lawrence; Sancak, Özgür; Rainsford, K D

2017-10-01

To test the ability of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) model to incorporate disparate data sources of varying quality along with clinical judgement in a benefit-risk assessment of six well-known pain-relief drugs. Six over-the-counter (OTC) analgesics were evaluated against three favourable effects and eight unfavourable effects by seven experts who specialise in the relief of pain, two in a 2-day facilitated workshop whose input data and judgements were later peer-reviewed by five additional experts. Ibuprofen salts and solubilised emerged with the best benefit-risk profile, followed by naproxen, ibuprofen acid, diclofenac, paracetamol and aspirin. Multicriteria decision analysis enabled participants to evaluate the OTC analgesics against a range of favourable and unfavourable effects in a group setting that enabled all issues to be openly aired and debated. The model was easily communicated and understood by the peer reviewers, so the model should be comprehensible to physicians, pharmacists and other health professionals. © 2017 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Safety Lead Optimization and Candidate Identification: Integrating New Technologies into Decision-Making.

PubMed

Dambach, Donna M; Misner, Dinah; Brock, Mathew; Fullerton, Aaron; Proctor, William; Maher, Jonathan; Lee, Dong; Ford, Kevin; Diaz, Dolores

2016-04-18

Discovery toxicology focuses on the identification of the most promising drug candidates through the development and implementation of lead optimization strategies and hypothesis-driven investigation of issues that enable rational and informed decision-making. The major goals are to [a] identify and progress the drug candidate with the best overall drug safety profile for a therapeutic area, [b] remove the most toxic drugs from the portfolio prior to entry into humans to reduce clinical attrition due to toxicity, and [c] establish a well-characterized hazard and translational risk profile to enable clinical trial designs. This is accomplished through a framework that balances the multiple considerations to identify a drug candidate with the overall best drug characteristics and provides a cogent understanding of mechanisms of toxicity. The framework components include establishing a target candidate profile for each program that defines the qualities of a successful candidate based on the intended therapeutic area, including the risk tolerance for liabilities; evaluating potential liabilities that may result from engaging the therapeutic target (pharmacology-mediated or on-target) and that are chemical structure-mediated (off-target); and characterizing identified liabilities. Lead optimization and investigation relies upon the integrated use of a variety of technologies and models (in silico, in vitro, and in vivo) that have achieved a sufficient level of qualification or validation to provide confidence in their use. We describe the strategic applications of various nonclinical models (established and new) for a holistic and integrated risk assessment that is used for rational decision-making. While this review focuses on strategies for small molecules, the overall concepts, approaches, and technologies are generally applicable to biotherapeutics.

Evaluation of risk communication in a mammography patient decision aid.

PubMed

Klein, Krystal A; Watson, Lindsey; Ash, Joan S; Eden, Karen B

2016-07-01

We characterized patients' comprehension, memory, and impressions of risk communication messages in a patient decision aid (PtDA), Mammopad, and clarified perceived importance of numeric risk information in medical decision making. Participants were 75 women in their forties with average risk factors for breast cancer. We used mixed methods, comprising a risk estimation problem administered within a pretest-posttest design, and semi-structured qualitative interviews with a subsample of 21 women. Participants' positive predictive value estimates of screening mammography improved after using Mammopad. Although risk information was only briefly memorable, through content analysis, we identified themes describing why participants value quantitative risk information, and obstacles to understanding. We describe ways the most complicated graphic was incompletely comprehended. Comprehension of risk information following Mammopad use could be improved. Patients valued receiving numeric statistical information, particularly in pictograph format. Obstacles to understanding risk information, including potential for confusion between statistics, should be identified and mitigated in PtDA design. Using simple pictographs accompanied by text, PtDAs may enhance a shared decision-making discussion. PtDA designers and providers should be aware of benefits and limitations of graphical risk presentations. Incorporating comprehension checks could help identify and correct misapprehensions of graphically presented statistics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of risk communication in a mammography patient decision aid

PubMed Central

Klein, Krystal A.; Watson, Lindsey; Ash, Joan S.; Eden, Karen B.

2016-01-01

Objectives We characterized patients’ comprehension, memory, and impressions of risk communication messages in a patient decision aid (PtDA), Mammopad, and clarified perceived importance of numeric risk information in medical decision making. Methods Participants were 75 women in their forties with average risk factors for breast cancer. We used mixed methods, comprising a risk estimation problem administered within a pretest–posttest design, and semi-structured qualitative interviews with a subsample of 21 women. Results Participants’ positive predictive value estimates of screening mammography improved after using Mammopad. Although risk information was only briefly memorable, through content analysis, we identified themes describing why participants value quantitative risk information, and obstacles to understanding. We describe ways the most complicated graphic was incompletely comprehended. Conclusions Comprehension of risk information following Mammopad use could be improved. Patients valued receiving numeric statistical information, particularly in pictograph format. Obstacles to understanding risk information, including potential for confusion between statistics, should be identified and mitigated in PtDA design. Practice implications Using simple pictographs accompanied by text, PtDAs may enhance a shared decision-making discussion. PtDA designers and providers should be aware of benefits and limitations of graphical risk presentations. Incorporating comprehension checks could help identify and correct misapprehensions of graphically presented statistics PMID:26965020

Perception and communication of risk in decision making by persons with dementia.

PubMed

Stevenson, Mabel; Savage, Beverley; Taylor, Brian J

2017-01-01

Communication of risks must involve people with dementia meaningfully to ensure informed and inclusive decision-making processes. This qualitative study explored concepts of risk from the perspective of persons with dementia and their experiences of communicating risk with family members and professionals. Data was analysed using grounded theory. Seventeen people in Northern Ireland with mild-moderate dementia who had recently made a decision about their daily life or care involving consideration of risks were interviewed between November 2015 and November 2016. A wide range of actual or feared risks were identified relating to: daily activities; hobbies and socialising; mental health and medicines; and risks to and from others. 'Risk' often held emotional rather than probability connotations. Constructive communications to address issues were presented. Problem-solving models of both active and passive decision-making about risks were evident. Effective risk communication in informed decision-making processes about health and social care is discussed.

Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

PubMed

Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

2018-01-22

Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

Trusted Data Sharing and Imagery Workflow for Disaster Response in Partnership with the State of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasscoe, M. T.; Aubrey, A. D.; Rosinski, A.; Morentz, J.; Beilin, P.; Jones, D.

2016-12-01

Providing actionable data for situational awareness following an earthquake or other disaster is critical to decision makers in order to improve their ability to anticipate requirements and provide appropriate resources for response. Key information on the nature, magnitude and scope of damage, or Essential Elements of Information (EEI), necessary to achieve situational awareness are often generated from a wide array of organizations and disciplines, using any number of geospatial and non-geospatial technologies. We have worked in partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse to develop actionable data products for use in their response efforts, particularly in regularly scheduled, statewide exercises like the recent 2016 Cascadia Rising NLE, the May 2015 Capstone/SoCal NLE/Ardent Sentry Exercises and in the August 2014 South Napa earthquake activation and plan to participate in upcoming exercises with the National Guard (Vigilant Guard 17) and the USGS (Haywired). Our efforts over the past several years have been to aid in enabling coordination between research scientists, applied scientists and decision makers in order to reduce duplication of effort, maximize information sharing, translate scientific results into actionable information for decision-makers, and increase situational awareness. We will present perspectives on developing tools for decision support and data discovery in partnership with the Clearinghouse. Products delivered include map layers as part of the common operational data plan for the Clearinghouse delivered through XchangeCore Web Service Data Orchestration and the SpotOnResponse field analysis application. We are exploring new capabilities for real-time collaboration using GeoCollaborate®. XchangeCore allows real-time, two-way information sharing, enabling users to create merged datasets from multiple providers; SpotOnResponse provides web-enabled secure information exchange, collaboration, and field analysis for responders; and GeoCollaborate® enables users to access, share, manipulate, and interact across disparate platforms, connecting public and private sector agencies and organizations rapidly on the same map at the same time, allowing improved collaborative decision making on the same datasets simultaneously.

Using quantitative risk information in decisions about statins: a qualitative study in a community setting.

PubMed

Polak, Louisa; Green, Judith

2015-04-01

A large literature informs guidance for GPs about communicating quantitative risk information so as to facilitate shared decision making. However, relatively little has been written about how patients utilise such information in practice. To understand the role of quantitative risk information in patients' accounts of decisions about taking statins. This was a qualitative study, with participants recruited and interviewed in community settings. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 34 participants aged >50 years, all of whom had been offered statins. Data were analysed thematically, using elements of the constant comparative method. Interviewees drew frequently on numerical test results to explain their decisions about preventive medication. In contrast, they seldom mentioned quantitative risk information, and never offered it as a rationale for action. Test results were spoken of as objects of concern despite an often-explicit absence of understanding, so lack of understanding seems unlikely to explain the non-use of risk estimates. Preventive medication was seen as 'necessary' either to treat test results, or because of personalised, unequivocal advice from a doctor. This study's findings call into question the assumption that people will heed and use numerical risk information once they understand it; these data highlight the need to consider the ways in which different kinds of knowledge are used in practice in everyday contexts. There was little evidence from this study that understanding probabilistic risk information was a necessary or valued condition for making decisions about statin use. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Use of technology to support information needs for continuity of operations planning in public health: a systematic review.

PubMed

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne; Demiris, George

2010-01-01

Continuity of operations planning focuses on an organization's ability to deliver essential services before, during and after an emergency. Public health leaders must make decisions based on information from many sources and their information needs are often facilitated or hindered by technology. The aim of this study is to provide a systematic review of studies of technology projects that address public health continuity of operations planning information needs and to discuss patterns, themes, and challenges to inform the design of public health continuity of operations information systems. To return a comprehensive results set in an under-explored area, we searched broadly in the Medline and EBSCOHost bibliographic databases using terms from prior work in public health emergency management and continuity of operations planning in other domains. In addition, we manually searched the citation lists of publications included for review. A total of 320 publications were reviewed. Twenty studies were identified for inclusion (twelve risk assessment decision support tools, six network and communications-enabled decision support tools, one training tool and one dedicated video-conferencing tool). Levels of implementation for information systems in the included studies range from proposed frameworks to operational systems. There is a general lack of documented efforts in the scientific literature for technology projects about public health continuity of operations planning. Available information about operational information systems suggest inclusion of public health practitioners in the design process as a factor in system success.

Creating an advance-care-planning decision aid for high-risk surgery: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background High-risk surgery patients may lose decision-making capacity as a result of surgical complications. Advance care planning prior to surgery may be beneficial, but remains controversial and is hindered by a lack of appropriate decision aids. This study sought to examine stakeholders’ views on the appropriateness of using decision aids, in general, to support advance care planning among high-risk surgery populations and the design of such a decision aid. Methods Key informants were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted by phone until data collected reached theoretical saturation. Key informants were asked to discuss their thoughts about advance care planning and interventions to support advance care planning, particularly for this population. Researchers took de-identified notes that were analyzed for emerging concordant, discordant, and recurrent themes using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results Key informants described the importance of initiating advance care planning preoperatively, despite potential challenges present in surgical settings. In general, decision aids were viewed as an appropriate approach to support advance care planning for this population. A recipe emerged from the data that outlines tools, ingredients, and tips for success that are needed to design an advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgical settings. Conclusions Stakeholders supported incorporating advance care planning in high-risk surgical settings and endorsed the appropriateness of using decision aids to do so. Findings will inform the next stages of developing the first advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgery patients. PMID:25067908

Creating an advance-care-planning decision aid for high-risk surgery: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Schuster, Anne Lr; Aslakson, Rebecca A; Bridges, John Fp

2014-01-01

High-risk surgery patients may lose decision-making capacity as a result of surgical complications. Advance care planning prior to surgery may be beneficial, but remains controversial and is hindered by a lack of appropriate decision aids. This study sought to examine stakeholders' views on the appropriateness of using decision aids, in general, to support advance care planning among high-risk surgery populations and the design of such a decision aid. Key informants were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted by phone until data collected reached theoretical saturation. Key informants were asked to discuss their thoughts about advance care planning and interventions to support advance care planning, particularly for this population. Researchers took de-identified notes that were analyzed for emerging concordant, discordant, and recurrent themes using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Key informants described the importance of initiating advance care planning preoperatively, despite potential challenges present in surgical settings. In general, decision aids were viewed as an appropriate approach to support advance care planning for this population. A recipe emerged from the data that outlines tools, ingredients, and tips for success that are needed to design an advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgical settings. Stakeholders supported incorporating advance care planning in high-risk surgical settings and endorsed the appropriateness of using decision aids to do so. Findings will inform the next stages of developing the first advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgery patients.

Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

2015-01-01

In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

Accessibility of standardized information of a national colorectal cancer screening program for low health literate screening invitees: A mixed method study.

PubMed

Fransen, Mirjam P; Dekker, Evelien; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; Uiters, Ellen; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise

2017-02-01

To explore the accessibility of standardized printed information materials of the national Dutch colorectal cancer screening program among low health literate screening invitees and to assess the effect of the information on their knowledge about colorectal cancer and the screening program. Linguistic tools were used to analyze the text and design characteristics. The accessibility, comprehensibility and relevance of the information materials were explored in interviews and in observations (n=25). The effect of the information on knowledge was assessed in an online survey (n=127). The materials employed a simple text and design. However, respondents expressed problems with the amount of information, and the difference between screening and diagnostic follow-up. Knowledge significantly increased in 10 out of 16 items after reading the information but remained low for colorectal cancer risk, sensitivity of testing, and the voluntariness of colorectal cancer screening. Despite intelligible linguistic and design characteristics, screening invitees with low health literacy had problems in accessing, comprehending and applying standard information materials on colorectal cancer screening, and lacked essential knowledge for informed decision-making about participation. To enable equal access to informed decision-making, information strategies need to be adjusted to the skills of low health literate screening invitees. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information management to enable personalized medicine: stakeholder roles in building clinical decision support.

PubMed

Downing, Gregory J; Boyle, Scott N; Brinner, Kristin M; Osheroff, Jerome A

2009-10-08

Advances in technology and the scientific understanding of disease processes are presenting new opportunities to improve health through individualized approaches to patient management referred to as personalized medicine. Future health care strategies that deploy genomic technologies and molecular therapies will bring opportunities to prevent, predict, and pre-empt disease processes but will be dependent on knowledge management capabilities for health care providers that are not currently available. A key cornerstone to the potential application of this knowledge will be effective use of electronic health records. In particular, appropriate clinical use of genomic test results and molecularly-targeted therapies present important challenges in patient management that can be effectively addressed using electronic clinical decision support technologies. Approaches to shaping future health information needs for personalized medicine were undertaken by a work group of the American Health Information Community. A needs assessment for clinical decision support in electronic health record systems to support personalized medical practices was conducted to guide health future development activities. Further, a suggested action plan was developed for government, researchers and research institutions, developers of electronic information tools (including clinical guidelines, and quality measures), and standards development organizations to meet the needs for personalized approaches to medical practice. In this article, we focus these activities on stakeholder organizations as an operational framework to help identify and coordinate needs and opportunities for clinical decision support tools to enable personalized medicine. This perspective addresses conceptual approaches that can be undertaken to develop and apply clinical decision support in electronic health record systems to achieve personalized medical care. In addition, to represent meaningful benefits to personalized decision-making, a comparison of current and future applications of clinical decision support to enable individualized medical treatment plans is presented. If clinical decision support tools are to impact outcomes in a clear and positive manner, their development and deployment must therefore consider the needs of the providers, including specific practice needs, information workflow, and practice environment.

Information management to enable personalized medicine: stakeholder roles in building clinical decision support

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Advances in technology and the scientific understanding of disease processes are presenting new opportunities to improve health through individualized approaches to patient management referred to as personalized medicine. Future health care strategies that deploy genomic technologies and molecular therapies will bring opportunities to prevent, predict, and pre-empt disease processes but will be dependent on knowledge management capabilities for health care providers that are not currently available. A key cornerstone to the potential application of this knowledge will be effective use of electronic health records. In particular, appropriate clinical use of genomic test results and molecularly-targeted therapies present important challenges in patient management that can be effectively addressed using electronic clinical decision support technologies. Discussion Approaches to shaping future health information needs for personalized medicine were undertaken by a work group of the American Health Information Community. A needs assessment for clinical decision support in electronic health record systems to support personalized medical practices was conducted to guide health future development activities. Further, a suggested action plan was developed for government, researchers and research institutions, developers of electronic information tools (including clinical guidelines, and quality measures), and standards development organizations to meet the needs for personalized approaches to medical practice. In this article, we focus these activities on stakeholder organizations as an operational framework to help identify and coordinate needs and opportunities for clinical decision support tools to enable personalized medicine. Summary This perspective addresses conceptual approaches that can be undertaken to develop and apply clinical decision support in electronic health record systems to achieve personalized medical care. In addition, to represent meaningful benefits to personalized decision-making, a comparison of current and future applications of clinical decision support to enable individualized medical treatment plans is presented. If clinical decision support tools are to impact outcomes in a clear and positive manner, their development and deployment must therefore consider the needs of the providers, including specific practice needs, information workflow, and practice environment. PMID:19814826

Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

2017-12-01

The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

PRA and Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Fuqua, Bryan; Wilson, Paul

2013-01-01

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact-probability matrix in terms of socio-economic dimension.

Systematic behavior research for understanding consumer decision making.

PubMed

Lin, Chin-Feng

2009-05-01

This study incorporates means-end chain (MEC) theory and dynamic programming for understanding the implications of consumer decision making. The conceptual framework of this study can help programmers design information systems for analyzing consumption behaviors. Such analyses will provide marketers with meaningful information for formulating marketing strategies. The main contributions of this article are as follows: (1) to enable researchers to obtain information for consumer cognitive hierarchies utilizing an information system, (2) to enhance the functions of traditional MEC methodology and provide an integrated method for analyzing consumption information, and (3) to construct an information system for analyzing consumer decision-making processes.

Bayesian updating in a fault tree model for shipwreck risk assessment.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M

2017-07-15

Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds of the world for many years and are threatening to pollute the marine environment. The status of the wrecks and the potential volume of harmful substances present in the wrecks are affected by a multitude of uncertainties. Each shipwreck poses a unique threat, the nature of which is determined by the structural status of the wreck and possible damage resulting from hazardous activities that could potentially cause a discharge. Decision support is required to ensure the efficiency of the prioritisation process and the allocation of resources required to carry out risk mitigation measures. Whilst risk assessments can provide the requisite decision support, comprehensive methods that take into account key uncertainties related to shipwrecks are limited. The aim of this paper was to develop a method for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances from shipwrecks. The method is based on Bayesian updating of generic information on the hazards posed by different activities in the surroundings of the wreck, with information on site-specific and wreck-specific conditions in a fault tree model. Bayesian updating is performed using Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the probability of a discharge of hazardous substances and formal handling of intrinsic uncertainties. An example application involving two wrecks located off the Swedish coast is presented. Results show the estimated probability of opening, discharge and volume of the discharge for the two wrecks and illustrate the capability of the model to provide decision support. Together with consequence estimations of a discharge of hazardous substances, the suggested model enables comprehensive and probabilistic risk assessments of shipwrecks to be made. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

To admit or not to admit? The effect of framing on risk assessment decision making in psychiatrists.

PubMed

Jefferies-Sewell, Kiri; Sharma, Shivani; Gale, Tim M; Hawley, Chris J; Georgiou, George J; Laws, Keith R

2015-02-01

The way that information is presented is well known to induce a range of biases in human decision tasks. Little research exists on framing effects in psychiatric decision making, but it is reasonable to assume that psychiatrists are not immune and, if so, there may be implications for the welfare of patients, staff and the general public. To investigate whether presentation of risk information in different formats (frequency, percentage and semantic) influences inpatient admission decisions by psychiatrists. Six-hundred seventy-eight general adult psychiatrists read a short clinical vignette presenting a case scenario of a patient presenting for inpatient admission. One of four condition questions followed the vignette, incorporating either numerical or percentage probabilities and the semantic labels "high" and "low" risk. In each condition, the actual risk was identical, but the way it was presented varied. The decision to admit the patient or not was recorded and compared across conditions. More individuals chose to admit the patient when risk information was presented in numerical form (X2 = 7.43, p = 0.006) and with the semantic label "high" (X2 = 7.27, p = 0.007). Presentation of risk information may influence decision making in psychiatrists. This has important implications for mental health clinical practice where clinicians are required to interpret probabilistic information within their daily work.

Climate Risk Management and Decision Support Tools for the Agriculture Sector in Lao PDR, Bangladesh, and Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allis, E. C.; Greene, A. M.; Cousin, R.

2014-12-01

We describe a comprehensive project for developing climate information and decision support / climate risk management tools in Lao PDR, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Mechanisms are developed for bringing the benefits of these tools to both policy makers and poor rural farmers, with the goal of enabling better management, at the farm level, of the risks associated with climate variability and change. The project comprises several interwoven threads, differentially applied in the different study regions. These include data management and quality control, development of seasonal forecast capabilities, use of dynamic cropping calendars and climate advisories, the development of longer-term climate information for both past and future and a weather index insurance component. Stakeholder engagement and capacity building served as reinforcing and complementary elements to all components. In this talk we will provide a project overview, show how the various components fit together and describe some lessons learned in this attempt to promote the uptake of actionable climate information from farmer to policy level. The applied research project was led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University with funding from the International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and in close collaboration with our regional partners at the Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia Pacific (at Bogor Agricultural University in Indonesia), Indonesia's National Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Lao PDR's National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), Laotian Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), WorldFish Center, Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD), and CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Personalizing prenatal care using family health history: identifying a panel of conditions for a novel electronic genetic screening tool.

PubMed

Lin, Bruce K; Edelman, Emily; McInerney, Joseph D; O'Leary, James; Edelson, Vaughn; Hughes, Kevin S; Drohan, Brian; Kyler, Penny; Lloyd-Puryear, Michele; Scott, Joan; Dolan, Siobhan M

2013-05-01

In the age of genomic medicine, family health history (FHH) remains an important tool for personalized risk assessment as it can inform approaches to disease prevention and management. In primary care, including in prenatal settings, providers recognize that FHH enables them to assess the risk for birth defects and complex conditions that not only affect the fetus health, but also the mother's. However, many providers lack the time to gather FHH or the knowledge to confidently interpret the data. Electronic tools providing clinical decision support using FHH data can aid the busy provider with data collection and interpretation. We describe the scope of conditions included in a patient-entered FHH tool that provides clinical decision support and point-of-care education to assist with patient management. This report details how we selected the conditions for which it is appropriate to use FHH as a means to promote personalized medicine in primary prenatal care.

Balancing research and funding using value of information and portfolio tools for nanomaterial risk classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Matthew E.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Zussblatt, Niels P.; Plourde, Kenton J.; Wender, Ben A.; Linkov, Igor

2016-02-01

Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis—methods commonly applied in financial and operations management—to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to assess how different research strategies can improve hazard classification. The relative cost of each research experiment is elicited from experts, which enables identification of efficient research portfolios—combinations of experiments that lead to the greatest improvement in hazard classification at the lowest cost. Nanoparticle shape, diameter, solubility and surface reactivity were most frequently identified within efficient portfolios in our results.

Balancing research and funding using value of information and portfolio tools for nanomaterial risk classification.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Zussblatt, Niels P; Plourde, Kenton J; Wender, Ben A; Linkov, Igor

2016-02-01

Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis-methods commonly applied in financial and operations management-to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to assess how different research strategies can improve hazard classification. The relative cost of each research experiment is elicited from experts, which enables identification of efficient research portfolios-combinations of experiments that lead to the greatest improvement in hazard classification at the lowest cost. Nanoparticle shape, diameter, solubility and surface reactivity were most frequently identified within efficient portfolios in our results.

"The Dose Makes the Poison": Informing Consumers About the Scientific Risk Assessment of Food Additives.

PubMed

Bearth, Angela; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Siegrist, Michael

2016-01-01

Intensive risk assessment is required before the approval of food additives. During this process, based on the toxicological principle of "the dose makes the poison,ˮ maximum usage doses are assessed. However, most consumers are not aware of these efforts to ensure the safety of food additives and are therefore sceptical, even though food additives bring certain benefits to consumers. This study investigated the effect of a short video, which explains the scientific risk assessment and regulation of food additives, on consumers' perceptions and acceptance of food additives. The primary goal of this study was to inform consumers and enable them to construct their own risk-benefit assessment and make informed decisions about food additives. The secondary goal was to investigate whether people have different perceptions of food additives of artificial (i.e., aspartame) or natural origin (i.e., steviolglycoside). To attain these research goals, an online experiment was conducted on 185 Swiss consumers. Participants were randomly assigned to either the experimental group, which was shown a video about the scientific risk assessment of food additives, or the control group, which was shown a video about a topic irrelevant to the study. After watching the video, the respondents knew significantly more, expressed more positive thoughts and feelings, had less risk perception, and more acceptance than prior to watching the video. Thus, it appears that informing consumers about complex food safety topics, such as the scientific risk assessment of food additives, is possible, and using a carefully developed information video is a successful strategy for informing consumers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Promoting a Culture of Tailoring for Systems Engineering Policy Expectations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Van A.

2016-01-01

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed an integrated systems engineering approach to promote a culture of tailoring for program and project policy requirements. MSFC's culture encourages and supports tailoring, with an emphasis on risk-based decision making, for enhanced affordability and efficiency. MSFC's policy structure integrates the various Agency requirements into a single, streamlined implementation approach which serves as a "one-stop-shop" for our programs and projects to follow. The engineers gain an enhanced understanding of policy and technical expectations, as well as lesson's learned from MSFC's history of spaceflight and science missions, to enable them to make appropriate, risk-based tailoring recommendations. The tailoring approach utilizes a standard methodology to classify projects into predefined levels using selected mission and programmatic scaling factors related to risk tolerance. Policy requirements are then selectively applied and tailored, with appropriate rationale, and approved by the governing authorities, to support risk-informed decisions to achieve the desired cost and schedule efficiencies. The policy is further augmented by implementation tools and lifecycle planning aids which help promote and support the cultural shift toward more tailoring. The MSFC Customization Tool is an integrated spreadsheet that ties together everything that projects need to understand, navigate, and tailor the policy. It helps them classify their project, understand the intent of the requirements, determine their tailoring approach, and document the necessary governance approvals. It also helps them plan for and conduct technical reviews throughout the lifecycle. Policy tailoring is thus established as a normal part of project execution, with the tools provided to facilitate and enable the tailoring process. MSFC's approach to changing the culture emphasizes risk-based tailoring of policy to achieve increased flexibility, efficiency, and effectiveness in project execution, while maintaining appropriate rigor to ensure mission success.

Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2016-01-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of human health and performance success during exploration missions as well as to maintain the subsequent long-term health of the crew. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2017-10-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

2004-12-01

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial (and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Psychometric testing of the decisional conflict scale: genetic testing hereditary breast and ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Katapodi, Maria C; Munro, Michelle L; Pierce, Penny F; Williams, Reg A

2011-01-01

: Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome is attributed mostly to mutations in the Breast Cancer 1 and Breast Cancer 2 genes (BRCA1/2). Mutation carriers of BRCA1/2 genes have significantly higher risk for developing breast cancer compared with the general population (55%-85% vs. 12%) and for developing ovarian cancer (20%-60% vs. 1.5%). The availability of genetic testing enables mutation carriers to make informed decisions about managing their cancer risk (e.g., risk-reducing surgery). However, uptake of testing for HBOC among high-risk individuals is low, indicating the need to better understand and measure the decisional conflict associated with this process. : The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the modified Decisional Conflict Scale for use in decisions associated with genetic testing for HBOC. : This cross-sectional cohort study, recruited women who pursued genetic testing for HBOC in two genetic risk assessment clinics affiliated with a large comprehensive cancer center and one of their female relatives who did not pursue testing. The final sample consisted of 342 women who completed all 16 items of the Decisional Conflict Scale. The psychometric properties of the scale were assessed using tests of reliability and validity, including face, content, construct, contrast, convergent, divergent, and predictive validity. : Factor analysis using principal axis factoring with oblimin rotation elicited a three-factor structure: (a) Lack of Knowledge About the Decision (α = .97), (b) Lack of Autonomy in Decision Making (α = .94), and (c) Lack of Confidence in Decision Making (α = .87). These factors explained 82% of the variance in decisional conflict about genetic testing. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was .96. : The instrument is an important tool for researchers and healthcare providers working with women at risk for HBOC who are deciding whether genetic testing is the right choice for them.

Expected value information improves financial risk taking across the adult life span.

PubMed

Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Wagner, Anthony D; Knutson, Brian

2011-04-01

When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.

A decision support system for technology R&D planning: connecting the dots from information to innovation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.; Wertz, Julie; Weisbin, Charles

2004-01-01

This paper describes an information technology innovation developed to assist decision makers faced with complex R&D tasks. The decision support system (DSS) was developed and applied to the analysis of a 10-year, 700 million dollar technology program for the exploration of Mars. The technologies were to enable a 4.8 billion dollar portfolio of exploration flight missions to Mars.

77 FR 44613 - Notice of Availability of the External Review Draft of Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-30

... External Review Draft of Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment To Inform Decision Making AGENCY: U.S... external review draft of ``A Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making.'' This... a framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of...

Presenting risk information to people with diabetes: evaluating effects and preferences for different formats by a web-based randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Edwards, Adrian; Thomas, Richard; Williams, Rhys; Ellner, Andrew L; Brown, Polly; Elwyn, Glyn

2006-11-01

Web-based patient information is widespread and information on the benefits and risks of treatments is often difficult to understand. We therefore evaluated different risk presentation formats - numerical, graphical and others - addressing the pros and cons of tight control versus usual treatment approaches for diabetes. Randomised controlled trial. Online. Publicity disseminated via Diabetes UK. People with diabetes or their carers. Control group information based on British Medical Journal 'Best Treatments'. Four intervention groups received enhanced information resources: (1) detailed numerical information (absolute/relative risk, numbers-needed-to-treat); (2) 'anchoring' to familiar risks or descriptions; (3) graphical (bar charts, thermometer scales, crowd figure formats); (4) combination of 1-3. Decision conflict scale (DCS, a measure of uncertainty); satisfaction with information; further free text responses for qualitative content analysis. Seven hundred and ten people visited the website and were randomised. Five hundred and eight completed the questionnaire for quantitative data. Mean DCS scores ranged from 2.12 to 2.24 for the five randomisation groups, indicating neither clear delay or vacillation about decisions (usually DCS>2.5) nor tending to make decisions (usually DCS<2.0). There were no statistically significant effects of the interventions on DCS, or satisfaction with information. Two hundred and fifty-six participants provided responses for qualitative analysis: most found graphical representations helpful, specifically bar chart formats; many found other graphic formats (thermometer style, crowd figures/smiley faces) and 'anchoring' information unhelpful, and indicated information overload. Many negative experiences with healthcare indicate a challenging context for effective information provision and decision support. Online evaluation of different risk representation formats was feasible. There was a lack of intervention effects on quantitative outcomes, perhaps reflecting already well-informed participants from the Diabetes UK patient organisation. The large qualitative dataset included many comments about what participants found helpful as formats for communicating risk information. These findings assist the design of online decision aids and the representation of risk information. The challenge is to provide more information, in appropriate and clear formats, but without risking information overload. Interactive web designs hold much promise to achieve this.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

General concepts and principles of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and in describing the uncertainty in decision making.

Developing Effective Communications about Extreme Weather Risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruine de Bruin, W.

2014-12-01

Members of the general public often face complex decisions about the risks that they face, including those associated with extreme weather and climate change adaptation. Scientific experts may be asked to develop communications with the goal of improving people's understanding of weather and climate risks, and informing people's decisions about how to protect against these risks. Unfortunately, scientific experts' communication efforts may fail if they lack information about what people need or want to know to make more informed decisions or what wording people prefer use to describe relevant concepts. This presentation provides general principles for developing effective risk communication materials that aim for widespread dissemination, such as brochures and websites. After a brief review of the social science evidence on how to design effective risk communication materials, examples will focus on communications about extreme weather events and climate change. Specifically, data will be presented from ongoing projects on flood risk perception, public preparedness for heat waves, and public perceptions of climate change. The presentation will end with specific recommendations about how to improve recipients' understanding about risks and inform decisions. These recommendations should be useful to scientific experts who aim to communicate about extreme weather, climate change, or other risks.

Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

PubMed Central

Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

2015-01-01

The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2015-10-01

Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Generalizability and Decision Studies to Inform Observational and Experimental Research in Classroom Settings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bottema-Beutel, Kristen; Lloyd, Blair; Carter, Erik W.; Asmus, Jennifer M.

2014-01-01

Attaining reliable estimates of observational measures can be challenging in school and classroom settings, as behavior can be influenced by multiple contextual factors. Generalizability (G) studies can enable researchers to estimate the reliability of observational data, and decision (D) studies can inform how many observation sessions are…

An integrated information system for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Loggia, Goffredo; Arnone, Elisa; Ciraolo, Giuseppe; Maltese, Antonino; Noto, Leonardo; Pernice, Umberto

2012-09-01

This paper reports the first results of the Project SESAMO - SistEma informativo integrato per l'acquisizione, geStione e condivisione di dati AMbientali per il supportO alle decisioni (Integrated Information System for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making). The main aim of the project is to design and develop an integrated environmental information platform able to provide monitoring services for decision support, integrating data from different environmental monitoring systems (including WSN). This ICT platform, based on a service-oriented architecture (SOA), will be developed to coordinate a wide variety of data acquisition systems, based on heterogeneous technologies and communication protocols, providing different sort of environmental monitoring services. The implementation and validation of the SESAMO platform and its services will involve three specific environmental domains: 1) Urban water losses; 2) Early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides; 3) Precision irrigation planning. Services in the first domain are enabled by a low cost sensors network collecting and transmitting data, in order to allow the pipeline network managers to analyze pressure, velocity and discharge data for reducing water losses in an urban contest. This paper outlines the SESAMO functional and technological structure and then gives a concise description of the service design and development process for the second and third domain. Services in the second domain are enabled by a prototypal early warning system able to identify in near-real time high-risk zones of rainfall-induced landslides. Services in the third domain are aimed to optimize irrigation planning of vineyards depending on plant water stress.

Risk analysis of computer system designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallone, A.

1981-01-01

Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.

My Lived Experiences Are More Important Than Your Probabilities: The Role of Individualized Risk Estimates for Decision Making about Participation in the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR).

PubMed

Holmberg, Christine; Waters, Erika A; Whitehouse, Katie; Daly, Mary; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta

2015-11-01

Decision-making experts emphasize that understanding and using probabilistic information are important for making informed decisions about medical treatments involving complex risk-benefit tradeoffs. Yet empirical research demonstrates that individuals may not use probabilities when making decisions. To explore decision making and the use of probabilities for decision making from the perspective of women who were risk-eligible to enroll in the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR). We conducted narrative interviews with 20 women who agreed to participate in STAR and 20 women who declined. The project was based on a narrative approach. Analysis included the development of summaries of each narrative, and thematic analysis with developing a coding scheme inductively to code all transcripts to identify emerging themes. Interviewees explained and embedded their STAR decisions within experiences encountered throughout their lives. Such lived experiences included but were not limited to breast cancer family history, a personal history of breast biopsies, and experiences or assumptions about taking tamoxifen or medicines more generally. Women's explanations of their decisions about participating in a breast cancer chemoprevention trial were more complex than decision strategies that rely solely on a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of probabilities derived from populations In addition to precise risk information, clinicians and risk communicators should recognize the importance and legitimacy of lived experience in individual decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

RESPONSIVENESS, LANGUAGE, AND ALIGNMENT: REFLECTIONS ON SOME CHALLENGES FOR HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT.

PubMed

Dillon, Andrew

2015-01-01

Health systems around the world cope with the challenge of difficult economic times, and the value of health technology assessment (HTA) is increasing. Making the right choices, with limited resources, in the face of increasingly complex technologies requires decisions informed by data and analyses that help us to manage the risks involved. Those who undertake and use HTA can play a greater role in helping decision makers meet these challenges; they need to think how to define innovation and respond to it, how to communicate their analyses, and, critically, how to align their work with the ambitions of their health systems. HTA can become a key health system enabler without compromising its objectivity or independence. It can say that it is too early to determine the value of a new technology when the data simply will not support a safe decision. However, it can also be bold and recommend the managed introduction of new technologies, even when the when the data is immature, provided that the health system understands the risks and there is a plausible case for believing that further research will support the value proposition. The goal for HTA is to be able confidently to do both.

Translating Ecological Risk to Ecosystem Service Loss

EPA Science Inventory

Hazardous site management in the US includes remediation of contaminated environmental media and restoration of injured natural resources. Site remediation decisions are informed by ecological risk assessment (ERA), while restoration and compensation decisions are informed by th...

Direct-to-consumer advertising and its utility in health care decision making: a consumer perspective.

PubMed

Deshpande, Aparna; Menon, Ajit; Perri, Matthew; Zinkhan, George

2004-01-01

The growth in direct-to-consumer advertising(DTCA)over the past two decades has facilitated the communication of prescription drug information directly to consumers. Data from a 1999 national survey are employed to determine the factors influencing consumers' opinions of the utility of DTC ads for health care decision making. We also analyze whether consumers use DTC ad information in health care decision making and who are the key drivers of such information utilization. The study results suggest that consumers have positive opinions of DTCA utility, varying across demographics and perceptions of certain advertisement features. Specifically, consumers value information about both risks and benefits, but the perception of risk information is more important in shaping opinions of ad utility than the perception of benefit information. Consumers still perceive, however that the quality of benefit information in DTC ads is better than that of risk information. Opinions about ad utility significantly influence whether information from DTC ads is used in health care decision making.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

GlassAllergy: a Google Glass-based solution to empower patients with skin allergies.

PubMed

Wiesner, Martin; Pobiruchin, Monika; Hetterich, Christian; Pfeifer, Daniel

2014-01-01

A variety of substances contained in cosmetic products can lead to allergic reactions for certain individuals. The names of such substances are predominantly printed onto a product in small-sized expert language. For this reason, consumers often have difficulties to assess whether some of the ingredients might be harmful for them. Consequently, patients are exposed to a risk of buying a cosmetic product that might cause a minor to severe allergic reaction. A Google Glass-based software solution for consumers suffering from skin allergies is presented. It enables users to check cosmetic products in a mobile context and empowers patients to make informed buying decisions. In particular, the solution could help to avoid or reduce the risk for allergic reactions.

Using systematic reviews for hazard and risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals

PubMed Central

Beronius, Anna; Vandenberg, Laura N.

2016-01-01

The possibility that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in our environment contribute to hormonally related effects and diseases observed in human and wildlife populations has caused concern among decision makers and researchers alike. EDCs challenge principles traditionally applied in chemical risk assessment and the identification and assessment of these compounds has been a much debated topic during the last decade. State of the science reports and risk assessments of potential EDCs have been criticized for not using systematic and transparent approaches in the evaluation of evidence. In the fields of medicine and health care, systematic review methodologies have been developed and used to enable objectivity and transparency in the evaluation of scientific evidence for decision making. Lately, such approaches have also been promoted for use in the environmental health sciences and risk assessment of chemicals. Systematic review approaches could provide a tool for improving the evaluation of evidence for decision making regarding EDCs, e.g. by enabling systematic and transparent use of academic research data in this process. In this review we discuss the advantages and challenges of applying systematic review methodology in the identification and assessment of EDCs. PMID:26847432

Using systematic reviews for hazard and risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals.

PubMed

Beronius, Anna; Vandenberg, Laura N

2015-12-01

The possibility that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in our environment contribute to hormonally related effects and diseases observed in human and wildlife populations has caused concern among decision makers and researchers alike. EDCs challenge principles traditionally applied in chemical risk assessment and the identification and assessment of these compounds has been a much debated topic during the last decade. State of the science reports and risk assessments of potential EDCs have been criticized for not using systematic and transparent approaches in the evaluation of evidence. In the fields of medicine and health care, systematic review methodologies have been developed and used to enable objectivity and transparency in the evaluation of scientific evidence for decision making. Lately, such approaches have also been promoted for use in the environmental health sciences and risk assessment of chemicals. Systematic review approaches could provide a tool for improving the evaluation of evidence for decision making regarding EDCs, e.g. by enabling systematic and transparent use of academic research data in this process. In this review we discuss the advantages and challenges of applying systematic review methodology in the identification and assessment of EDCs.

The development of an online decision aid to support persons having a genetic predisposition to cancer and their partners during reproductive decision-making: a usability and pilot study.

PubMed

Reumkens, Kelly; Tummers, Marly H E; Gietel-Habets, Joyce J G; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Aalfs, Cora M; van Asperen, Christi J; Ausems, Margreet G E M; Collée, Margriet; Dommering, Charlotte J; Kets, C Marleen; van der Kolk, Lizet E; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Tjan-Heijnen, Vivianne C G; van der Weijden, Trudy; de Die-Smulders, Christine E M; van Osch, Liesbeth A D M

2018-05-30

An online decision aid to support persons having a genetic predisposition to cancer and their partners during reproductive decision-making was developed. A two-phase usability test was conducted among 12 couples (N = 22; 2 persons participated without their partner) at risk for hereditary cancer and 15 health care providers. Couples and health care providers expressed similar suggestions for improvements, and evaluated the modified decision aid as acceptable, easy to use, and comprehensible. The final decision aid was pilot tested (N = 16) with paired sample t tests comparing main outcomes (decisional conflict, knowledge, realistic expectations regarding the reproductive options and decision self-efficacy) before (T0), immediately (T1) and 2 weeks after (T2) use of the decision aid. Pilot testing indicated decreased decisional conflict scores, increased knowledge, and improved realistic expectations regarding the reproductive options, at T1 and T2. No effect was found for couples' decision self-efficacy. The positive findings during usability testing were thus reflected in the pilot study. The decision aid will be further evaluated in a nationwide pretest-posttest study to facilitate implementation in the onco-genetic counselling setting. Ultimately, it is expected that the decision aid will enable end-users to make an informed decision.

SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

2011-12-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

2013-12-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

Sex and HIV serostatus differences in decision making under risk among substance-dependent individuals.

PubMed

Martin, Eileen; Gonzalez, Raul; Vassileva, Jasmin; Maki, Pauline M; Bechara, Antoine; Brand, Matthias

2016-01-01

HIV+ individuals with and without substance use disorders make significantly poorer decisions when information about the probability and magnitude of wins and losses is not available. We administered the Game of Dice Task, a measure of decision making under risk that provides this information explicitly, to 92 HIV+ and 134 HIV- substance-dependent men and women. HIV+ participants made significantly poorer decisions than HIV- participants, but this deficit appeared more prominent among HIV+ women. These data indicate that decision making under risk is impaired among HIV+ substance-dependent individuals (SDIs). Potential factors for the HIV+ women's relatively greater impairment are discussed.

Risky feelings: Why a 6% risk of cancer doesn’t always feel like 6%

PubMed Central

Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Fagerlin, Angela; Ubel, Peter A.

2010-01-01

Objective Emotion plays a strong role in the perception of risk information but is frequently underemphasized in the decision-making and communication literature. We sought to discuss and put into context several lines of research that have explored the links between emotion and risk perceptions, Methods In this article, we provide a focused, “state of the science” review of research revealing the ways that emotion, or affect, influences people’s cancer-related decisions. We identify illustrative experimental research studies that demonstrate the role of affect in people’s estimates of cancer risk, their decisions between different cancer treatments, their perceptions of the chance of cancer recurrence, and their reactions to different methods of presenting risk information. Results These studies show that people have strong affective reactions to cancer risk information and that the way risk information is presented often determines the emotional gist people take away from such communications. Conclusion Cancer researchers, educators and oncologists need to be aware that emotions are often more influential in decision making about cancer treatments and prevention behaviors than factual knowledge is. Practice Implications Anticipating and assessing affective reactions is an essential step in the evaluation and improvement of cancer risk communications. PMID:20739135

Risky feelings: why a 6% risk of cancer does not always feel like 6%.

PubMed

Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Fagerlin, Angela; Ubel, Peter A

2010-12-01

Emotion plays a strong role in the perception of risk information but is frequently underemphasized in the decision-making and communication literature. We sought to discuss and put into context several lines of research that have explored the links between emotion and risk perceptions. In this article, we provide a focused, "state of the science" review of research revealing the ways that emotion, or affect, influences people's cancer-related decisions. We identify illustrative experimental research studies that demonstrate the role of affect in people's estimates of cancer risk, their decisions between different cancer treatments, their perceptions of the chance of cancer recurrence, and their reactions to different methods of presenting risk information. These studies show that people have strong affective reactions to cancer risk information and that the way risk information is presented often determines the emotional gist people take away from such communications. Cancer researchers, educators and oncologists need to be aware that emotions are often more influential in decision making about cancer treatments and prevention behaviors than factual knowledge is. Anticipating and assessing affective reactions is an essential step in the evaluation and improvement of cancer risk communications. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prostate cancer survivors with a passive role preference in treatment decision-making are less satisfied with information received: Results from the PROFILES registry.

PubMed

Cuypers, Maarten; Lamers, Romy E D; de Vries, Marieke; Husson, Olga; Kil, Paul J M; van de Poll-Franse, Lonneke V

2016-11-01

To investigate decision-making role preferences and their association with the evaluation of information received in a sample of low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer (Pca) survivors. Cross-sectional study involved 562 men diagnosed with low-risk or intermediate-risk Pca (median time since diagnosis, 48mo), measuring preferred decision-making role (Control Preference Scale) and the evaluation of information received (EORTC QLQ-INFO25). Analyses were performed using analysis of variance, chi-square tests, and multivariable linear regression models. Men who preferred a passive role were older and less educated than other preference groups and more often selected a noninvasive treatment option (all with P<0.001). The passive role preference group reported having received less information, judged the received information as less helpful, and indicated lower overall satisfaction with information received (all with P<0.05). Role preference groups did not differ in their desire to receive more information. Compared with nonpassive preference groups, the preference for a passive role in Pca treatment decision-making is associated with less satisfaction with the information received. Assessment of role preferences and tailored information provision could improve satisfaction with information received and perhaps may ultimately lead to improved patient participation in treatment decision-making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher

2010-01-01

NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

Involvement and Influence of Healthcare Providers, Family Members, and Other Mutation Carriers in the Cancer Risk Management Decision-Making Process of BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers.

PubMed

Puski, Athena; Hovick, Shelly; Senter, Leigha; Toland, Amanda Ewart

2018-03-29

Deciding between increased cancer screening or prophylactic surgery and the timing of such procedures can be a difficult and complex process for women with BRCA mutations. There are gaps in our understanding of involvement of others in the decision-making process for women with BRCA mutations. This study evaluated the management decision-making process of women with BRCA mutations, focusing on the involvement of others. Grounded theory was used to analyze and code risk management decision-making information from interviews with 20 BRCA mutation carriers. Unaffected at-risk participants with a BRCA mutation, those under age 40, and those with no children described having a difficult time making risk management decisions. Physicians were an integral part of the decision-making process by providing decisional support and management recommendations. Family members and other mutation carriers filled similar yet distinct roles by providing experiential information as well as decisional and emotional support for carriers. Participants described genetic counselors as short-term providers of risk information and management recommendations. The study findings suggest that unaffected at-risk women, women under 40, and those who do not have children may benefit from additional support and information during the decision-making process. Genetic counselors are well trained to help women through this process and connect them with resources, and may be under-utilized in long-term follow-up for women with a BRCA mutation.

Visualization support for risk-informed decision making when planning and managing software developments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Kiper, James D.; Menzies, Tim

2005-01-01

Key decisions are made in the early stages of planning and management of software developments. The information basis for these decisions is often a mix of analogy with past developments, and the best judgments of domain experts. Visualization of this information can support to such decision making by clarifying the status of the information and yielding insights into the ramifications of that information vis-a-vis decision alternatives.

A discussion of key values to inform the design and delivery of services for HIV-affected women and couples attempting pregnancy in resource-constrained settings.

PubMed

Heffron, Renee; Davies, Natasha; Cooke, Ian; Kaida, Angela; Mergler, Reid; van der Poel, Sheryl; Cohen, Craig R; Mmeje, Okeoma

2015-01-01

HIV-affected women and couples often desire children and many accept HIV risk in order to attempt pregnancy and satisfy goals for a family. Risk reduction strategies to mitigate sexual and perinatal HIV transmission include biomedical and behavioural approaches. Current efforts to integrate HIV and reproductive health services offer prime opportunities to incorporate strategies for HIV risk reduction during pregnancy attempts. Key client and provider values about services to optimize pregnancy in the context of HIV risk provide insights for the design and implementation of large-scale "safer conception" programmes. Through our collective experience and discussions at a multi-disciplinary international World Health Organization-convened workshop to initiate the development of guidelines and an algorithm of care to support the delivery of services for HIV-affected women and couples attempting pregnancy, we identified four values that are key to the implementation of these programmes: (1) understanding fertility care and an ability to identify potential fertility problems; (2) providing equity of access to resources enabling informed decision-making about reproductive choices; (3) creating enabling environments that reduce stigma associated with HIV and infertility; and (4) creating enabling environments that encourage disclosure of HIV status and fertility status to partners. Based on these values, recommendations for programmes serving HIV-affected women and couples attempting pregnancy include the following: incorporation of comprehensive reproductive health counselling; training to support the transfer and exchange of knowledge between providers and clients; care environments that reduce the stigma of childbearing among HIV-affected women and couples; support for safe and voluntary disclosure of HIV and fertility status; and increased efforts to engage men in reproductive decision-making at times that align with women's desires. Programmes, policies and guidelines that integrate HIV treatment and prevention, sexual and reproductive health and fertility care services in a manner responsive to user values and preferences offer opportunities to maximize demand for and use of these services. For HIV-affected women and couples attempting pregnancy, the provision of comprehensive services using available tools - and the development of new tools that are adaptable to many settings and follow consensus recommendations - is a public health imperative. The impetus now is to design and deliver value-driven inclusive programming to achieve the greatest coverage and impact to reduce HIV transmission during pregnancy attempts.

Spatial planning using probabilistic flood maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, Leonardo; Mukolwe, Micah; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2015-04-01

Probabilistic flood maps account for uncertainty in flood inundation modelling and convey a degree of certainty in the outputs. Major sources of uncertainty include input data, topographic data, model structure, observation data and parametric uncertainty. Decision makers prefer less ambiguous information from modellers; this implies that uncertainty is suppressed to yield binary flood maps. Though, suppressing information may potentially lead to either surprise or misleading decisions. Inclusion of uncertain information in the decision making process is therefore desirable and transparent. To this end, we utilise the Prospect theory and information from a probabilistic flood map to evaluate potential decisions. Consequences related to the decisions were evaluated using flood risk analysis. Prospect theory explains how choices are made given options for which probabilities of occurrence are known and accounts for decision makers' characteristics such as loss aversion and risk seeking. Our results show that decision making is pronounced when there are high gains and loss, implying higher payoffs and penalties, therefore a higher gamble. Thus the methodology may be appropriately considered when making decisions based on uncertain information.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences.

PubMed

Constantinou, Anthony Costa; Yet, Barbaros; Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Marsh, William

2016-01-01

Inspired by real-world examples from the forensic medical sciences domain, we seek to determine whether a decision about an interventional action could be subject to amendments on the basis of some incomplete information within the model, and whether it would be worthwhile for the decision maker to seek further information prior to suggesting a decision. The method is based on the underlying principle of Value of Information to enhance decision analysis in interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks. The method is applied to two real-world Bayesian network models (previously developed for decision support in forensic medical sciences) to examine the average gain in terms of both Value of Information (average relative gain ranging from 11.45% and 59.91%) and decision making (potential amendments in decision making ranging from 0% to 86.8%). We have shown how the method becomes useful for decision makers, not only when decision making is subject to amendments on the basis of some unknown risk factors, but also when it is not. Knowing that a decision outcome is independent of one or more unknown risk factors saves us from the trouble of seeking information about the particular set of risk factors. Further, we have also extended the assessment of this implication to the counterfactual case and demonstrated how answers about interventional actions are expected to change when some unknown factors become known, and how useful this becomes in forensic medical science. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decisional role preferences, risk knowledge and information interests in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Heesen, Christoph; Kasper, Jürgen; Segal, Julia; Köpke, Sascha; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2004-12-01

Shared decision making is increasingly recognized as the ideal model of patient-physician communication especially in chronic diseases with partially effective treatments as multiple sclerosis (MS). To evaluate prerequisite factors for this kind of decision making we studied patients' decisional role preferences in medical decision making, knowledge on risks, information interests and the relations between these factors in MS. After conducting focus groups to generate hypotheses, 219 randomly selected patients from the MS Outpatient Clinic register (n = 1374) of the University Hospital Hamburg received mailed questionnaires on their knowledge of risks in MS, their perception of their own level of knowledge, information interests and role preferences. Most patients (79%) indicated that they preferred an active role in treatment decisions giving the shared decision and the informed choice model the highest priority. MS risk knowledge was low but questionnaire results depended on disease course, disease duration and ongoing immune therapy. Measured knowledge as well as perceived knowledge was only weakly correlated with preferences of active roles. Major information interests were related to symptom alleviation, diagnostic procedures and prognosis. Patients with MS claimed autonomous roles in their health care decisions. The weak correlation between knowledge and preferences for active roles implicates that other factors largely influence role preferences.

Differential recall of consent information and parental decisions about enrolling children in research studies.

PubMed

Boccia, Maria L; Campbell, Frances A; Goldman, Barbara D; Skinner, Martie

2009-01-01

In the present simulation research, the authors examined the relations between the type of information that low-income parents (N = 116) recalled from informed-consent materials and their hypothetical decision to enroll a child in a clinical study. The authors gave parents or guardians of Head Start children information about a medical protocol involving high risk and significant potential benefit to child participants. Differential recall of the various categories of information (procedures, benefits, risks and costs, rights, and other) showed that relative to all consent information conveyed to them, participants recalled most about procedures and least about their child's rights as a study participant. Relative to their own recall, they also recounted most about procedures, slightly more about benefits than risks, and least about research rights. The pattern of recall differed among those who agreed to enroll and those who declined. The ratio of recalled risks to benefits predicted enrollment decisions.

TYPES OF INTEGRATION IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, AND WHY THEY ARE NEEDED

EPA Science Inventory

Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for int...

Parenting through genetic uncertainty: themes in the disclosure of breast cancer risk information to children.

PubMed

Sharff, McKane E; DeMarco, Tiffani A; Mays, Darren; Peshkin, Beth N; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis B; Garber, Judy E; Schneider, Katherine A; Patenaude, Andrea F; Tercyak, Kenneth P

2012-05-01

Among mothers undergoing BRCA1/2 testing and their spouses/partners, this study sought to examine decision support needs and motivations for family communication of genetic risk information to asymptomatic children. This study gathered data from 213 tested mothers and 104 of their untested parenting partners 1 month after maternal receipt of genetic test results and upon making a decision about communicating genetic information to their child (ages 8-21 years). Data include parents' perceived needs for family communication decision support, decision motivations, and parent-child communication. Parents reported high decision support needs (e.g., educational materials, professional counseling, peer assistance). Motivations for disclosure to children among mothers and partners focused on promoting the parent-child bond and maintaining family health (55.3% and 75%, respectively) and promoting positive child affect (44.7% and 25.5%, respectively). Motivations for nondisclosure to children among mothers and partners focused on the lack of appropriateness (69.6% and 51.3%, respectively) and relative importance of genetic test results (30.4% and 48.7%, respectively). Significant discrepancies in parental motivation for family communication were observed. Decision support needs were highest among disclosing mothers with affect-related motivations [t (129)=2.47; p=0.01]. Parent-child communication was poorest among nondisclosing mothers concerned about the appropriateness of genetic information for their child [t (77)=-3.29; p=.002]. Parents receiving information about hereditary cancer predisposition have unmet needs when making decisions about disclosing genetic risk information to their asymptomatic children. These data can guide the development of cancer risk communication decision support interventions for parents undergoing such testing.

Risk based adaptation of infrastructures to floods and storm surges induced by climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Byron Quan; Garrè, Luca; Hansen, Peter Friis

2014-05-01

Coastal natural hazards are changing in frequency and intensity associated to climate change. These extreme events combined with an increase in the extent of vulnerable societies will lead to an increase of substantial monetary losses. For this reason, adaptive measures are required to identify the effective and adequate measures to withstand the impacts of climate change. Decision strategies are needed for the timing of investments and for the allocation of resources to safeguard the future in a sustainable manner. Adapting structures to climate change requires decision making under uncertainties. Therefore, it is vital that risk assessments are generated on a reliable and appropriate evaluation of the involved uncertainties. Linking a Bayesian network (BN) to a Geographic Information System (GIS) for a risk assessment enables to model all the relevant parameters, their causal relations and the involved uncertainties. The integration of the probabilistic approach into a GIS allows quantifying and visualizing uncertainties in a spatial manner. By addressing these uncertainties, the Bayesian Network approach allows quantifying their effects; and facilitates the identification of future model improvements and where other efforts should be concentrated. The final results can be applied as a supportive tool for presenting reliable risk assessments to decision-makers. Based on this premises, a case study was performed to assess how the storm surge magnitude and flooding extent of an event with similar characteristics to the Sandy Super storm will occur in 2050 and 2090.

Development of a spatial decision support system for flood risk management in Brazil that combines volunteered geographic information with wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horita, Flávio E. A.; Albuquerque, João Porto de; Degrossi, Lívia C.; Mendiondo, Eduardo M.; Ueyama, Jó

2015-07-01

Effective flood risk management requires updated information to ensure that the correct decisions can be made. This can be provided by Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) which are a low-cost means of collecting updated information about rivers. Another valuable resource is Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) which is a comparatively new means of improving the coverage of monitored areas because it is able to supply supplementary information to the WSN and thus support decision-making in flood risk management. However, there still remains the problem of how to combine WSN data with VGI. In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate AGORA-DS, which is a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) that is able to make flood risk management more effective by combining these data sources, i.e. WSN with VGI. This approach is built over a conceptual model that complies with the interoperable standards laid down by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) - e.g. Sensor Observation Service (SOS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) - and seeks to combine and present unified information in a web-based decision support tool. This work was deployed in a real scenario of flood risk management in the town of São Carlos in Brazil. The evidence obtained from this deployment confirmed that interoperable standards can support the integration of data from distinct data sources. In addition, they also show that VGI is able to provide information about areas of the river basin which lack data since there is no appropriate station in the area. Hence it provides a valuable support for the WSN data. It can thus be concluded that AGORA-DS is able to combine information provided by WSN and VGI, and provide useful information for supporting flood risk management.

Fast Tracking Data to Informed Decisions: An Advanced Information System to Improve Environmental Understanding and Management (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minsker, B. S.; Myers, J.; Liu, Y.; Bajcsy, P.

2010-12-01

Emerging sensing and information technology are rapidly creating a new paradigm for environmental research and management, in which data from multiple sensors and information sources can guide real-time adaptive observation and decision making. This talk will provide an overview of emerging cyberinfrastructure and three case studies that illustrate their potential: combined sewer overflows in Chicago, hypoxia in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, and sustainable agriculture in Illinois. An advanced information system for real-time decision making and visual geospatial analytics will be presented as an example of cyberinfrastructure that enables easier implementation of numerous real-time applications.

Governance Through Privacy, Fairness, and Respect for Individuals.

PubMed

Baker, Dixie B; Kaye, Jane; Terry, Sharon F

2016-01-01

Individuals have a moral claim to be involved in the governance of their personal data. Individuals' rights include privacy, autonomy, and the ability to choose for themselves how they want to manage risk, consistent with their own personal values and life situations. The Fair Information Practices principles (FIPPs) offer a framework for governance. Privacy-enhancing technology that complies with applicable law and FIPPs offers a dynamic governance tool for enabling the fair and open use of individual's personal data. Any governance model must protect against the risks posed by data misuse. Individual perceptions of risks are a subjective function involving individuals' values toward self, family, and society, their perceptions of trust, and their cognitive decision-making skills. Individual privacy protections and individuals' right to choose are codified in the HIPAA Privacy Rule, which attempts to strike a balance between the dual goals of information flow and privacy protection. The choices most commonly given individuals regarding the use of their health information are binary ("yes" or "no") and immutable. Recent federal recommendations and law recognize the need for granular, dynamic choices. Individuals expect that they will govern the use of their own health and genomic data. Failure to build and maintain individuals' trust increases the likelihood that they will refuse to grant permission to access or use their data. The "no surprises principle" asserts that an individual's personal information should never be collected, used, transmitted, or disclosed in a way that would surprise the individual were she to learn about it. The FIPPs provide a powerful framework for enabling data sharing and use, while maintaining trust. We introduce the eight FIPPs adopted by the Department of Health and Human Services, and provide examples of their interpretation and implementation. Privacy risk and health risk can be reduced by giving consumers control, autonomy, and transparency, and by engaging them in managing their own health. Explicit "consent" may not always be necessary - the FIPPs offer multiple ways to engender trust and avoid surprises.

Risk assessment as standard work in design.

PubMed

Morrill, Patricia W

2013-01-01

This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

Metamodeling-based approach for risk assessment and cost estimation: Application to geological carbon sequestration planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Alexander Y.; Jeong, Hoonyoung; González-Nicolás, Ana; Templeton, Thomas C.

2018-04-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being evaluated globally as a geoengineering measure for significantly reducing greenhouse emission. However, long-term liability associated with potential leakage from these geologic repositories is perceived as a main barrier of entry to site operators. Risk quantification and impact assessment help CCS operators to screen candidate sites for suitability of CO2 storage. Leakage risks are highly site dependent, and a quantitative understanding and categorization of these risks can only be made possible through broad participation and deliberation of stakeholders, with the use of site-specific, process-based models as the decision basis. Online decision making, however, requires that scenarios be run in real time. In this work, a Python based, Leakage Assessment and Cost Estimation (PyLACE) web application was developed for quantifying financial risks associated with potential leakage from geologic carbon sequestration sites. PyLACE aims to assist a collaborative, analytic-deliberative decision making processes by automating metamodel creation, knowledge sharing, and online collaboration. In PyLACE, metamodeling, which is a process of developing faster-to-run surrogates of process-level models, is enabled using a special stochastic response surface method and the Gaussian process regression. Both methods allow consideration of model parameter uncertainties and the use of that information to generate confidence intervals on model outputs. Training of the metamodels is delegated to a high performance computing cluster and is orchestrated by a set of asynchronous job scheduling tools for job submission and result retrieval. As a case study, workflow and main features of PyLACE are demonstrated using a multilayer, carbon storage model.

Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

2013-04-01

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data, helping non-expert audiences better understand and evaluate risks facing water users. This presentation will discuss the methodology used to combine the indicator values into aggregated risk scores and lessons learned from working with diverse audiences in academia, development institutions, and the public and private sectors.

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations.

PubMed

Dotson, G Scott; Hudson, Naomi L; Maier, Andrew

2015-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management.

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations

PubMed Central

Dotson, G. Scott; Hudson, Naomi L.; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management. PMID:26312660

Causal modelling applied to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Paul, Warren L; Rokahr, Pat A; Webb, Jeff M; Rees, Gavin N; Clune, Tim S

2016-03-01

Bayesian networks (BNs), or causal Bayesian networks, have become quite popular in ecological risk assessment and natural resource management because of their utility as a communication and decision-support tool. Since their development in the field of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, however, Bayesian networks have evolved and merged with structural equation modelling (SEM). Unlike BNs, which are constrained to encode causal knowledge in conditional probability tables, SEMs encode this knowledge in structural equations, which is thought to be a more natural language for expressing causal information. This merger has clarified the causal content of SEMs and generalised the method such that it can now be performed using standard statistical techniques. As it was with BNs, the utility of this new generation of SEM in ecological risk assessment will need to be demonstrated with examples to foster an understanding and acceptance of the method. Here, we applied SEM to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge to a stream, with a particular focus on the process of translating a causal diagram (conceptual model) into a statistical model which might then be used in the decision-making and evaluation stages of the risk assessment. The process of building and testing a spatial causal model is demonstrated using data from a spatial sampling design, and the implications of the resulting model are discussed in terms of the risk assessment. It is argued that a spatiotemporal causal model would have greater external validity than the spatial model, enabling broader generalisations to be made regarding the impact of a discharge, and greater value as a tool for evaluating the effects of potential treatment plant upgrades. Suggestions are made on how the causal model could be augmented to include temporal as well as spatial information, including suggestions for appropriate statistical models and analyses.

Preferences and decision needs of Boston-area travelers to countries with risk of Yellow fever virus transmission: implications for health care providers.

PubMed

Lown, Beth A; Chen, Lin H; Han, Pauline V; Jentes, Emily S; Wilson, Mary E; Benoit, Christine M; Avery, Karen A; Ooi, Winnie; Hamer, Davidson H; Barnett, Elizabeth D

2014-01-01

Yellow fever (YF), a potentially fatal mosquito-borne infection, is preventable with a live-attenuated vaccine, rarely associated with severe adverse events. We surveyed travelers to assess their reasons for pre-travel medical consultation, information they considered important regarding YF disease and vaccination, whether they recalled receiving this information, and whether they were involved in vaccine decision-making. Travelers aged 18 years and older were surveyed at three Boston-area travel clinics. Only those making YF vaccination decisions were included for analyses. Of 831 travelers surveyed, 589 (70%) indicated making a YF vaccination decision. Travel medicine providers recommended YF vaccination to 537 (91%) of 589 travelers; 92% of these 537 received vaccine. Among 101 travelers aged 60 years and older, 9% declined the vaccine; among those younger than 60 years, 4% declined the vaccine (p = 0.06). Of 589 travelers, most agreed they needed to understand destination-specific YF risks (82%) and vaccine risks (88%), and were involved in YF vaccine decisions (87%). Less than half recalled discussing their concerns about YF vaccine with the provider (42%) or what risks and benefits mattered most to them (32%). Most participants sought YF disease and vaccine risk information and wanted to be involved in decision-making; however, fewer than half recalled discussing their opinions or concerns about YF vaccine. Providers need effective risk communication skills and the ability to elicit and respond to travelers' concerns to help them make informed, shared decisions. © 2014 International Society of Travel Medicine.

Assessing Generalisability in Model-Based Economic Evaluation Studies: A Structured Review in Osteoporosis

PubMed Central

Urdahl, Hege; Manca, Andrea; Sculpher, Mark J

2008-01-01

Background To support decision making many countries have now introduced some formal assessment process to evaluate whether health technologies represent good ‘value for money’. These often take the form of decision models which can be used to explore elements of importance to generalisability of study results across clinical settings and jurisdictions. The objectives of the present review were to assess: (i) whether the published studies clearly defined the decision-making audience for the model; (ii) the transparency of the reporting in terms of study question, structure and data inputs; (iii) the relevance of the data inputs used in the model to the stated decision-maker or jurisdiction; and (iv) how fully the robustness of the model's results to variation in data inputs between locations was assessed. Methods Articles reporting decision-analytic models in the area of osteoporosis were assessed to establish the extent to which the information provided enabled decision makers in different countries/jurisdictions to fully appreciate the variability of results according to location, and the relevance to their own. Results Of the 18 articles included in the review, only three explicitly stated the decision-making audience. It was not possible to infer a decision-making audience in eight studies. Target population was well reported, as was resource and cost data, and clinical data used for estimates of relative risk reduction. However, baseline risk was rarely adapted to the relevant jurisdiction, and when no decision-maker was explicit it was difficult to assess whether the reported cost and resource use data was in fact relevant. A few studies used sensitivity analysis to explore elements of generalisability, such as compliance rates and baseline fracture risk rates, although such analyses were generally restricted to evaluating parameter uncertainty. Conclusion This review found that variability in cost-effectiveness across locations is addressed to a varying extent in modelling studies in the field of osteoporosis, limiting their use for decision-makers across different locations. Transparency of reporting is expected to increase as methodology develops, and decision-makers publish “reference case” type guidance. PMID:17129074

Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

Risk perceptions and behavioral context: U.S. Forest Service fire management professionals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Jonathan G.; Carpenter, Edwin H.; Cortner, Hanna J.; Cleaves, David A.

1989-01-01

Fire managers from the U.S. Forest Service were surveyed to determine which decision factors most strongly influenced their fire‐risk decisions. Safety, the resources at risk, public opinion, and the reliability of information were important influences on these decisions. This research allowed direct comparison between fire managers’ perceptions of factor importance and how their fire‐risk decisions changed in response to those factors. These risk decisions were highly responsive to changes in context (an escaped wildfire decision versus a prescribed burning decision) as well as to changing factors. The results demonstrate the utility of using scenarios in risk research and the vital importance of context in studying risk‐taking behavior. Research which attempts to remove risk decisions from their real‐world context may well distort the nature of risk‐taking behavior.

Testing whether decision aids introduce cognitive biases: results of a randomized trial.

PubMed

Ubel, Peter A; Smith, Dylan M; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Derry, Holly A; McClure, Jennifer; Stark, Azadeh; Wiese, Cheryl; Greene, Sarah; Jankovic, Aleksandra; Fagerlin, Angela

2010-08-01

Women at high risk of breast cancer face a difficult decision whether to take medications like tamoxifen to prevent a first breast cancer diagnosis. Decision aids (DAs) offer a promising method of helping them make this decision. But concern lingers that DAs might introduce cognitive biases. We recruited 663 women at high risk of breast cancer and presented them with a DA designed to experimentally test potential methods of identifying and reducing cognitive biases that could influence this decision, by varying specific aspects of the DA across participants in a factorial design. Participants were susceptible to a cognitive bias - an order effect - such that those who learned first about the risks of tamoxifen thought more favorably of the drug than women who learned first about the benefits. This order effect was eliminated among women who received additional information about competing health risks. We discovered that the order of risk/benefit information influenced women's perceptions of tamoxifen. This bias was eliminated by providing contextual information about competing health risks. We have demonstrated the feasibility of using factorial experimental designs to test whether DAs introduce cognitive biases, and whether specific elements of DAs can reduce such biases. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Celebrity Health Announcements and Online Health Information Seeking: An Analysis of Angelina Jolie's Preventative Health Decision.

PubMed

Dean, Marleah

2016-01-01

On May 14, 2013, Angelina Jolie disclosed she carries BRCA1, which means she has an 87% risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime. Jolie decided to undergo a preventative bilateral mastectomy (PBM), reducing her risk to 5%. The purpose of this study was to analyze the type of information individuals are exposed to when using the Internet to search health information regarding Jolie's decision. Qualitative content analysis revealed four main themes--information about genetics, information about a PBM, information about health care, and information about Jolie's gender identity. Broadly, the identified websites mention Jolie's high risk for developing cancer due to the genetic mutation BRCA1, describe a PBM occasionally noting reasons why she had this surgery and providing alternatives to the surgery, discuss issues related to health care services, costs, and insurances about Jolie's health decision, and portray Jolie as a sexual icon, a partner to Brad Pitt, a mother of six children, and an inspirational humanitarian. The websites also depict Jolie's health decision in positive, negative, and/or both ways. Discussion centers on how this actress' health decision impacts the public.

Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

Treesearch

Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

2013-01-01

This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

An Experimental Study of the Effect of Shared Information on Pilot/Controller Re-Route Negotiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farley, Todd C.; Hansman, R. John

1999-01-01

Air-ground data link systems are being developed to enable pilots and air traffic controllers to share information more fully. The sharing of information is generally expected to enhance their shared situation awareness and foster more collaborative decision making. An exploratory, part-task simulator experiment is described which evaluates the extent to which shared information may lead pilots and controllers to cooperate or compete when negotiating route amendments. The results indicate an improvement in situation awareness for pilots and controllers and a willingness to work cooperatively. Independent of data link considerations, the experiment also demonstrates the value of providing controllers with a good-quality weather representation on their plan view displays. Observed improvements in situation awareness and separation assurance are discussed. It is argued that deployment of this relatively simple, low-risk addition to the plan view displays be accelerated.

D2R2: an evidence-based decision support tool to aid prioritisation of animal health issues for government funding.

PubMed

Gibbens, J C; Frost, A J; Houston, C W; Lester, H; Gauntlett, F A

2016-11-26

An evidence-based decision support tool, 'D2R2', has been developed by Defra. It contains a wide range of standardised information about exotic and endemic diseases held in 'disease profiles'. Each profile includes 40 criteria used for scoring, enabling D2R2 to provide relative priority rankings for every disease profiled. D2R2 also provides a range of reports for each disease and the functionality to explore the impact of changes in any criterion or weighting on a disease's ranking. These outputs aid the prioritisation and management of animal diseases by government. D2R2 was developed with wide stakeholder engagement and its design was guided by clear specifications. It uses the weighted scores of a limited number of criteria to generate impact and risk scores for each disease, and relies on evidence drawn from published material wherever possible and maintained up to date. It allows efficient use of expertise, as maintained disease profiles reduce the need for on call, reactive, expert input for policy development and enables rapid simultaneous access to the same information by multiple parties, for example during exotic disease outbreaks. The experience in developing D2R2 has been shared internationally to assist others with their development of disease prioritisation and categorisation systems. British Veterinary Association.

Understanding the Harms and Benefits of Cancer Screening: A Model of Factors That Shape Informed Decision Making.

PubMed

Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

2015-10-01

Decisions about cancer screenings often involve the consideration of complex and counterintuitive evidence. We investigated psychological factors that promote the comprehension of benefits and harms associated with common cancer screenings and their influence on shared decision making. In experiment 1, 256 men received information about PSA-based prostate cancer screening. In experiment 2, 355 women received information about mammography-based breast cancer screening. In both studies, information about potential screening outcomes was provided in 1 of 3 formats: text, a fact box, or a visual aid (e.g., mortality with and without screening and rate of overdiagnosis). We modeled the interplay of comprehension, perceived risks and benefits, intention to participate in screening, and desire for shared decision making. Generally, visual aids were the most effective format, increasing comprehension by up to 18%. Improved comprehension was associated with 1) superior decision making (e.g., fewer intentions to participate in screening when it offered no benefit) and 2) more desire to share in decision making. However, comprehension of the evidence had a limited effect on experienced emotions, risk perceptions, and decision making among those participants who felt that the consequences of cancer were extremely severe. Even when information is counterintuitive and requires the integration of complex harms and benefits, user-friendly risk communications can facilitate comprehension, improve high-stakes decisions, and promote shared decision making. However, previous beliefs about the effectiveness of screening or strong fears about specific cancers may interfere with comprehension and informed decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

Fault Management in an Objectives-Based/Risk-Informed View of Safety and Mission Success

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groen, Frank

2012-01-01

Theme of this talk: (1) Net-benefit of activities and decisions derives from objectives (and their priority) -- similarly: need for integration, value of technology/capability. (2) Risk is a lack of confidence that objectives will be met. (2a) Risk-informed decision making requires objectives. (3) Consideration of objectives is central to recent guidance.

Information and decision support needs of parents considering amniocentesis: interviews with pregnant women and health professionals.

PubMed

Durand, Marie-Anne; Stiel, Mareike; Boivin, Jacky; Elwyn, Glyn

2010-06-01

Our aim was to clarify and categorize information and decision support needs of pregnant women deciding about amniocentesis. Prenatal screening for Down's syndrome (implemented in routine practice) generates a quantifiable risk of chromosome abnormality. To increase certainty, chromosomal material needs to be obtained through amniocentesis or other diagnostic test. Amniocentesis carries risks of pregnancy loss. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with health professionals and pregnant women who had considered amniocentesis. The data were qualitatively analysed using a two-step thematic content analysis. A sample of 17 health professionals and 17 pregnant women were interviewed. Professionals demonstrated little consensus regarding the miscarriage rate, the potential consequences of amniocentesis testing and the uncertainty associated with the tests. Furthermore, methods employed to communicate risks varied between professionals. Pregnant women reported heightened stress and anxiety. Twelve out of 17 women described the decision as complex and difficult to make while five participants were satisfied with the information and support provided. Women would have liked more information about the risks involved, the results, the consequences of an amniocentesis and associated emotional difficulties. Women highlighted the need for personalized information, presented in multiple ways, while remaining simple and unbiased. There is variation in the provision of information related to amniocentesis testing. The majority of pregnant women reported difficulties making a decision and identified dimensions of information and decision support where improvements were needed.

Channelling information flows from observation to decision; or how to increase certainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijs, S. V.

2015-12-01

To make adequate decisions in an uncertain world, information needs to reach the decision problem, to enable overseeing the full consequences of each possible decision.On its way from the physical world to a decision problem, information is transferred through the physical processes that influence the sensor, then through processes that happen in the sensor, through wires or electromagnetic waves. For the last decade, most information becomes digitized at some point. From moment of digitization, information can in principle be transferred losslessly. Information about the physical world is often also stored, sometimes in compressed form, such as physical laws, concepts, or models of specific hydrological systems. It is important to note, however, that all information about a physical system eventually has to originate from observation (although inevitably coloured by some prior assumptions). This colouring makes the compression lossy, but is effectively the only way to make use of similarities in time and space that enable predictions while measuring only a a few macro-states of a complex hydrological system.Adding physical process knowledge to a hydrological model can thus be seen as a convenient way to transfer information from observations from a different time or place, to make predictions about another situation, assuming the same dynamics are at work.The key challenge to achieve more certainty in hydrological prediction can therefore be formulated as a challenge to tap and channel information flows from the environment. For tapping more information flows, new measurement techniques, large scale campaigns, historical data sets, and large sample hydrology and regionalization efforts can bring progress. For channelling the information flows with minimum loss, model calibration, and model formulation techniques should be critically investigated. Some experience from research in a Swiss high alpine catchment are used as an illustration.

Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: An introduction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease r...

Enabling joined-up decision making with geotemporal information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. J.; Ahmed, S. E.; Purves, D. W.; Emmott, S.; Joppa, L. N.; Caldararu, S.; Visconti, P.; Newbold, T.; Formica, A. F.

2015-12-01

While the use of geospatial data to assist in decision making is becoming increasingly common, the use of geotemporal information: information that can be indexed by geographical space AND time, is much rarer. I will describe our scientific research and software development efforts intended to advance the availability and use of geotemporal information in general. I will show two recent examples of "stacking" geotemporal information to support land use decision making in the Brazilian Amazon and Kenya, involving data-constrained predictive models and empirically derived datasets of road development, deforestation, carbon, agricultural yields, water purification and poverty alleviation services and will show how we use trade-off analyses and constraint reasoning algorithms to explore the costs and benefits of different decisions. For the Brazilian Amazon we explore tradeoffs involved in different deforestation scenarios, while for Kenya we explore the impacts of conserving forest to support international carbon conservation initiatives (REDD+). I will also illustrate the cloud-based software tools we have developed to enable anyone to access geotemporal information, gridded (e.g. climate) or non-gridded (e.g. protected areas), for the past, present or future and incorporate such information into their analyses (e.g. www.fetchclimate.org), including how we train new predictive models to such data using Bayesian techniques: on this latter point I will show how we combine satellite and ground measured data with predictive models to forecast how crops might respond to climate change.

Risk assessment can be a game-changing information technology--but too often it isn't.

PubMed

Goble, Robert; Bier, Vicki M

2013-11-01

The printing press was a game-changing information technology. Risk assessment could be also. At present, risk assessments are commonly used as one-time decision aids: they provide justification for a particular decision, and afterwards usually sit on a shelf. However, when viewed as information technologies, their potential uses are much broader. Risk assessments: (1) are repositories of structured information and a medium for communication; (2) embody evaluative structures for setting priorities; (3) can preserve information over time and permit asynchronous communication, thus encouraging learning and adaptation; and (4) explicitly address uncertain futures. Moreover, because of their "what-if" capabilities, risk assessments can serve as a platform for constructive discussion among parties that hold different values. The evolution of risk assessment in the nuclear industry shows how such attributes have been used to lower core-melt risks substantially through improved templates for maintenance and more effective coordination with regulators (although risk assessment has been less commonly used in improving emergency-response capabilities). The end result of this evolution in the nuclear industry has been the development of "living" risk assessments that are updated more or less in real time to answer even routine operational questions. Similar but untapped opportunities abound for the use of living risk assessments to reduce risks in small operational decisions as well as large policy decisions in other areas of hazard management. They can also help improve understanding of and communication about risks, and future risk assessment and management. Realization of these opportunities will require significant changes in incentives and active promotion by the risk analytic community. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

Empirical Study on the Impact of a Tactical Biosurveillance Information Visualization on Users' Situational Awareness.

PubMed

Kettelhut, Valeriya V; Vanschooneveld, Trevor C; McClay, James C; Mercer, David F; Fruhling, Ann; Meza, Jane L

2017-03-01

Decisions on antibiotic-resistant infection (ARI) prevention in dynamic health care settings should be agile and target the right process at the right time. Health information technologies can aid the recognition of high-risk situations for ARI transmission and timely facilitate operators' situational awareness (SA) in various military and civilian health care locations or transport platforms. High SA is one of the significant predictors of better performance. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of the developed health information visualization (VIZ) on the users' SA regarding situations when risks of ARI transmission and exposure are high. The enrolled 19 subjects assessed the proposed VIZ artifacts representing 1 scenario, compared the VIZ effectiveness against the currently employed local methods, and reported their SA (perception and comprehension) with the use of a pre- and post-self-rating questionnaire. The results showed that the VIZ significantly increased SA in the study subjects and revealed the importance of communicating the risk of exposure to ARIs. The VIZ enabled the participants to quickly acknowledge the high-risk individuals (super-spreaders), locations (hot spots), and biosafety (deficient infection prevention). The study concluded that SA-oriented technologies may be promising for promoting better infection prevention practices. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Decision-making when data and inferences are not conclusive: risk-benefit and acceptable regret approach.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Schell, Michael J; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2008-07-01

The absolute truth in research is unobtainable, as no evidence or research hypothesis is ever 100% conclusive. Therefore, all data and inferences can in principle be considered as "inconclusive." Scientific inference and decision-making need to take into account errors, which are unavoidable in the research enterprise. The errors can occur at the level of conclusions that aim to discern the truthfulness of research hypothesis based on the accuracy of research evidence and hypothesis, and decisions, the goal of which is to enable optimal decision-making under present and specific circumstances. To optimize the chance of both correct conclusions and correct decisions, the synthesis of all major statistical approaches to clinical research is needed. The integration of these approaches (frequentist, Bayesian, and decision-analytic) can be accomplished through formal risk:benefit (R:B) analysis. This chapter illustrates the rational choice of a research hypothesis using R:B analysis based on decision-theoretic expected utility theory framework and the concept of "acceptable regret" to calculate the threshold probability of the "truth" above which the benefit of accepting a research hypothesis outweighs its risks.

Informed consent and decision-making about adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation: a systematic review of empirical research.

PubMed

Gordon, Elisa J; Daud, Amna; Caicedo, Juan Carlos; Cameron, Kenzie A; Jay, Colleen; Fryer, Jonathan; Beauvais, Nicole; Skaro, Anton; Baker, Talia

2011-12-27

Adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is a complex procedure that poses serious health risks to and provides no direct health benefit for the donor. Because of this uneven risk-benefit ratio, ensuring donor autonomy through informed consent is critical. To assess the current knowledge pertaining to informed consent for LDLT, we conducted a systematic review of the empirical literature on donors' decision-making process, comprehension about risks and outcomes, and information needs for LDLT. Of the 1423 identified articles, 24 met final review criteria, representing the perspective of approximately 2789 potential and actual donors. As donors' decisions to donate often occur before evaluation, they often make uninformed decisions. The review found that 88% to 95% of donors reported understanding information clinicians disclosed about risks and benefits. However, donors reported unmet information needs, knowledge gaps regarding risks, and unanticipated complications. Few donors reported feeling pressure to donate. Most studies were limited by cultural differences, small sample sizes, inconsistent measures, and poor methodological approaches. This systematic review suggests that informed consent for LDLT is sub-optimal as donors do not adequately appreciate disclosed information during the informed consent process, despite United Network for Organ Sharing/CMS regulations requiring formal psychological evaluation of donor candidates. Interventions are needed to improve donor-clinician communication during the LDLT informed consent process such as through the use of comprehension assessment tools and e-health educational tools that leverage adult learning theory to effectively convey LDLT outcome data.

Informed consent needed for sterilization or research.

PubMed

Barnett, B

1998-01-01

Informed choice involves enabling family planning clients to base their decisions about contraceptive use upon adequate information. It is a process in which clients give their permission to undergo a procedure, take a medication, or participate in a study after being fully informed. Informed consent protects an individual's freedom of choice, respects his or her autonomy, is important in both family planning programs and reproductive health research, and should always be available to clients seeking health services. Although written informed consent is not needed for most reproductive health services, it should be obtained from men and women who undergo sterilization, since that involves surgery and is considered permanent. In addition, people who volunteer to participate in contraceptive studies need to be fully informed of the risks and benefits of any new drugs or devices they receive. Volunteers should understand the potential effects of methods upon their physical health and other aspects of their lives. Ethical reviews need to be conducted before research begins.

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection.

PubMed

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-09-17

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice.

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection

PubMed Central

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-01-01

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice. PMID:28926985

SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

The influence of narrative v. statistical information on perceiving vaccination risks.

PubMed

Betsch, Cornelia; Ulshöfer, Corina; Renkewitz, Frank; Betsch, Tilmann

2011-01-01

Health-related information found on the Internet is increasing and impacts patient decision making, e.g. regarding vaccination decisions. In addition to statistical information (e.g. incidence rates of vaccine adverse events), narrative information is also widely available such as postings on online bulletin boards. Previous research has shown that narrative information can impact treatment decisions, even when statistical information is presented concurrently. As the determinants of this effect are largely unknown, we will vary features of the narratives to identify mechanisms through which narratives impact risk judgments. An online bulletin board setting provided participants with statistical information and authentic narratives about the occurrence and nonoccurrence of adverse events. Experiment 1 followed a single factorial design with 1, 2, or 4 narratives out of 10 reporting adverse events. Experiment 2 implemented a 2 (statistical risk 20% vs. 40%) × 2 (2/10 vs. 4/10 narratives reporting adverse events) × 2 (high vs. low richness) × 2 (high vs. low emotionality) between-subjects design. Dependent variables were perceived risk of side-effects and vaccination intentions. Experiment 1 shows an inverse relation between the number of narratives reporting adverse-events and vaccination intentions, which was mediated by the perceived risk of vaccinating. Experiment 2 showed a stronger influence of the number of narratives than of the statistical risk information. High (vs. low) emotional narratives had a greater impact on the perceived risk, while richness had no effect. The number of narratives influences risk judgments can potentially override statistical information about risk.

Identification of ballast water discharge profiles of a port to enable effective ballast water management and environmental studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, Matej; Gollasch, Stephan; Penko, Ludvik

2018-03-01

Information about the profile of ballast water discharges in a port is one of the basic elements of the decision making process in ballast water risk assessment and management, and supports the evaluation of dimensions and processes of aquatic species invasions with vessels ballast water. In the lack of ballast water reporting, ballast water discharge assessments need to be conducted. In this study we have assessed and compared ballast water discharge profiles of two ports with different maritime traffic and cargo profiles, the Port of Hamburg (Germany) and the Muuga Harbour, Port of Tallinn (Estonia). This study shows methods and approaches which can be used to assess volumes and donor ports of ballast water discharges for a port at the level of each vessel call. These methods and approaches can be applied to any port to support the implementation of feasible and efficient ballast water management measures and to enable environmental studies including long-term accumulation risks of disinfection by-products from ballast water management systems making use of active substances, as well as for discharges of other chemical compounds.

Needs and challenges for assessing the environmental impacts of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs)

PubMed Central

Romero-Franco, Michelle; Godwin, Hilary A; Bilal, Muhammad

2017-01-01

The potential environmental impact of nanomaterials is a critical concern and the ability to assess these potential impacts is top priority for the progress of sustainable nanotechnology. Risk assessment tools are needed to enable decision makers to rapidly assess the potential risks that may be imposed by engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), particularly when confronted by the reality of limited hazard or exposure data. In this review, we examine a range of available risk assessment frameworks considering the contexts in which different stakeholders may need to assess the potential environmental impacts of ENMs. Assessment frameworks and tools that are suitable for the different decision analysis scenarios are then identified. In addition, we identify the gaps that currently exist between the needs of decision makers, for a range of decision scenarios, and the abilities of present frameworks and tools to meet those needs. PMID:28546894

[The role of information in public health decision-making].

PubMed

Cecchi, Catherine

2008-01-01

Public health, prevention, health education and health promotion are inseparable from the concepts of information and communication. Information should respond as much as possible to the needs of professionals, decision-makers, and consumers who are more and more concerned and conscious of its importance in light of "information overload", various dissemination channels and the multiplicity of its sources. There are numerous issues at stake ranging from comprehension, to the validation of health information, health education, health promotion, prevention, decision-making, as well as issues related to knowledge and power. Irrespective of the type of choice to be made, the need for information, knowledge, and know-how is inseparable from that of other tools or regulatory measures required for decision-making. Information is the same as competence, epidemiological and population data, health data, scientific opinion, and expert conferences--all are needed to assist in decision-making. Based on the principle of precaution, information must increasingly take into account the rejection of a society which often reasons on the basis of a presumption of zero-risk, in an idealistic manner, and which also excludes the possibility of new risks. The consumer positions himself as the regulator of decisions, specifically those with regard to the notion of acceptable level of risk. All of the actors involved in the health system are or become at one moment or another public health decision-makers. Their decision might be based either on an analytical approach, or on an intuitive approach. Although the act of decision-making is the least visible part of public health policy, it is certainly the driving force. This process should integrate the perspective of all of the relevant players, including consumers, who are currently situated more and more frequently at the heart of the health system. Public health decision-making is conducted as a function of political, strategic and environmental issues; of lobbies and their power; and of social maturation. Decision-making is a necessity. Making the right choice at the right time requires high quality information, and it is often necessary to respect a certain amount of time for reflection and ripening of an issue in order to make the best possible decision. The media and consumers play an increasingly significant role in public health decision-making and in the ensuing legislative consequences and debates which come as a result. Access to information is changing, especially thanks to the Internet which is completely modifying the global scenery of knowledge and know-how. Information supports decision-making with calculated risk, and it offers the opportunity to make choices and decisions, recognising that "to choose, is sometimes to relinquish".

Localizing drought monitoring products to support agricultural climate service advisories in South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qamer, F. M.; Matin, M. A.; Yadav, N. K.; Bajracharya, B.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Krupnik, T. J.; Hussain, G.

2017-12-01

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies drought as one of the major climate risks in South Asia. During past two decades, a large amount of climate data have been made available by the scientific community, but the deployment of climate information for local level and agricultural decision making remains less than optimal. The provisioning of locally calibrated, easily accessible, decision-relevant and user-oriented information, in the form of drought advisory service could help to prepare communities to reduce climate vulnerability and increase resilience. A collaborative effort is now underway to strengthen existing and/or establish new drought monitoring and early warning systems in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan by incorporating standard ground-based observations, earth observation datasets, and numerical forecast models. ICT-based agriculture drought monitoring platforms, hosted at national agricultural and meteorological institutions, are being developed and coupled with communications and information deployment strategies to enable the rapid and efficient deployment of information that farmers can understand, interpret, and act on to adapt to anticipated droughts. Particular emphasis is being placed on the calibration and validation of data products through retrospective analysis of time series data, in addition to the installation of automatic weather station networks. In order to contextualize monitoring products to that they may be relevant for farmers' primary cropping systems, district level farming practices calendars are being compiled and validated through focus groups and surveys to identify the most important times and situations during which farmers can adapt to drought. High-resolution satellite crop distribution maps are under development and validation to add value to these efforts. This programme also aims to enhance capacity of agricultural extension staff to better understand climate information, probabilistic forecasts, related technologies, and adaptation strategies, in addition to equipping them with increased capacity to convey drought risks to farmers and improve climate related decision making.

Pollinator Protection Strategic Plan

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Developed by EPA, this ensures that pesticide risk assessments and risk management decisions use best available information and scientific methods, and full evaluation of pollinator protection when making registration decisions.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Quantifying women's stated benefit-risk trade-off preferences for IBS treatment outcomes.

PubMed

Johnson, F Reed; Hauber, A Brett; Ozdemir, Semra; Lynd, Larry

2010-01-01

The Food and Drug Administration, currently, is exploring quantitative benefit-risk methods to support regulatory decision-making. A scientifically valid method for assessing patients' benefit-risk trade-off preferences is needed to compare risks and benefits in a common metric. The study aims to quantify the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) of treatment-related adverse events (AEs) that women with diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) are willing to accept in exchange for symptom relief. A stated-choice survey was used to elicit trade-off preferences among constructed treatment profiles, each defined by symptom severity and treatment-related AEs. Symptom attributes included frequency of abdominal pain and discomfort, frequency of diarrhea, and frequency of urgency. AE attributes included frequency of mild-to-moderate constipation and the risk of four possible serious AEs. A Web-enabled survey was administered to 589 female US residents at least 18 years of age with a self-reported diagnosis of diarrhea-predominant IBS. Preference weights and MAR were estimated using mixed-logit methods. SUBJECTS were willing to accept higher risks of serious AEs in return for treatments offering better symptom control. For an improvement from the lowest to the highest of four benefit levels, subjects were willing to tolerate a 2.65% increase in impacted-bowel risk, but only a 1.34% increase in perforated-bowel risk. Variation in MARs across AE types is consistent with the relative seriousness of the AEs. Stated-preference methods offer a scientifically valid approach to quantifying benefit-risk trade-off preferences that can be used to inform regulatory decision-making.

Cool but counterproductive: interactive, Web-based risk communications can backfire.

PubMed

Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

2011-08-25

Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of "fill-in-the-blank" pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents' ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P < .001) than the static image conditions. In addition, respondents using interactive graphs were less likely to recognize and select the dominant treatment option (234/380, 61.6% vs 343/465, 73.8%, P < .001 in the strong dominance condition). Interactivity, however visually appealing, can both add to respondent burden and distract people from understanding relevant statistical information. Decision-aid developers need to be aware that interactive risk presentations may create worse outcomes than presentations of static risk graphic formats.

Cool but Counterproductive: Interactive, Web-Based Risk Communications Can Backfire

PubMed Central

Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

2011-01-01

Background Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. Objective The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. Methods A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of “fill-in-the-blank” pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents’ ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. Results The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P < .001) than the static image conditions. In addition, respondents using interactive graphs were less likely to recognize and select the dominant treatment option (234/380, 61.6% vs 343/465, 73.8%, P < .001 in the strong dominance condition). Conclusions Interactivity, however visually appealing, can both add to respondent burden and distract people from understanding relevant statistical information. Decision-aid developers need to be aware that interactive risk presentations may create worse outcomes than presentations of static risk graphic formats. PMID:21868349

PROACT: Iterative Design of a Patient-Centered Visualization for Effective Prostate Cancer Health Risk Communication.

PubMed

Hakone, Anzu; Harrison, Lane; Ottley, Alvitta; Winters, Nathan; Gutheil, Caitlin; Han, Paul K J; Chang, Remco

2017-01-01

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men in the US, and yet most cases represent localized cancer for which the optimal treatment is unclear. Accumulating evidence suggests that the available treatment options, including surgery and conservative treatment, result in a similar prognosis for most men with localized prostate cancer. However, approximately 90% of patients choose surgery over conservative treatment, despite the risk of severe side effects like erectile dysfunction and incontinence. Recent medical research suggests that a key reason is the lack of patient-centered tools that can effectively communicate personalized risk information and enable them to make better health decisions. In this paper, we report the iterative design process and results of developing the PROgnosis Assessment for Conservative Treatment (PROACT) tool, a personalized health risk communication tool for localized prostate cancer patients. PROACT utilizes two published clinical prediction models to communicate the patients' personalized risk estimates and compare treatment options. In collaboration with the Maine Medical Center, we conducted two rounds of evaluations with prostate cancer survivors and urologists to identify the design elements and narrative structure that effectively facilitate patient comprehension under emotional distress. Our results indicate that visualization can be an effective means to communicate complex risk information to patients with low numeracy and visual literacy. However, the visualizations need to be carefully chosen to balance readability with ease of comprehension. In addition, due to patients' charged emotional state, an intuitive narrative structure that considers the patients' information need is critical to aid the patients' comprehension of their risk information.

Improving Hazardous Waste Remediation and Restoration Decisions Using Ecosystem Services

EPA Science Inventory

Hazardous site management in the US includes remediation of contaminated environmental media and restoration of injured natural resources. Site remediation decisions are informed by ecological risk assessment (ERA), while restoration and compensation decisions are informed by the...

A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making: The Durham-Orange Light Rail Project

EPA Science Inventory

EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, envi...

Environmental Biosciences Program Second Quarter Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2004-12-31

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene (TCE), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and low-dose ionizing radiation. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Environmental Biosciences Program Quarterly Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2006-10-31

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Environmental Biosciences Program Fourth Quarter Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2005-06-30

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation s need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems.more » The intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems. Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene (TCE), polychlorinated biphenyles (PCBs), and low-dose ionizing radiation. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Security and confidentiality of health information systems: implications for physicians.

PubMed

Dorodny, V S

1998-01-01

Adopting and developing the new generation of information systems will be essential to remain competitive in a quality conscious health care environment. These systems enable physicians to document patient encounters and aggregate the information from the population they treat, while capturing detailed data on chronic medical conditions, medications, treatment plans, risk factors, severity of conditions, and health care resource utilization and management. Today, the knowledge-based information systems should offer instant, around-the-clock access for the provider, support simple order entry, facilitate data capture and retrieval, and provide eligibility verification, electronic authentication, prescription writing, security, and reporting that benchmarks outcomes management based upon clinical/financial decisions and treatment plans. It is an integral part of any information system to incorporate and integrate transactional (financial/administrative) information, as well as analytical (clinical/medical) data in a user-friendly, readily accessible, and secure form. This article explores the technical, financial, logistical, and behavioral obstacles on the way to the Promised Land.

AB022. Harnessing big data to transform clinical care of cardiovascular diseases

PubMed Central

Cutiongco-de la Paz, Eva Maria

2015-01-01

Diseases of the heart and vascular system are the leading causes of mortality worldwide. A number of risk factors have already been identified such as obesity, diabetes and smoking; in the recent years, research has shifted its focus on genetic risk factors. Discoveries on the role of genes partnered with the technological developments have enabled advances in the understanding of human genetics and its influence on disease and treatment. There are initiatives now to combine medical records and genetic and other molecular data into a single “knowledge network” to achieve these aptly known as precision medicine. With next generation sequencing readily available at a more affordable cost, it is expected that genetic information of patients will be increasingly available and can be used to guide clinical decisions. Big data generated and stored necessitates broad and extensive interpretation to be valuable in clinical care. Accumulating evidence on the use of such genetic information in the cardiovascular clinics will be presented.

DEGAS: sharing and tracking target compound ideas with external collaborators.

PubMed

Lee, Man-Ling; Aliagas, Ignacio; Dotson, Jennafer; Feng, Jianwen A; Gobbi, Alberto; Heffron, Timothy

2012-02-27

To minimize the risk of failure in clinical trials, drug discovery teams must propose active and selective clinical candidates with good physicochemical properties. An additional challenge is that today drug discovery is often conducted by teams at different geographical locations. To improve the collaborative decision making on which compounds to synthesize, we have implemented DEGAS, an application which enables scientists from Genentech and from collaborating external partners to instantly access the same data. DEGAS was implemented to ensure that only the best target compounds are made and that they are made without duplicate effort. Physicochemical properties and DMPK model predictions are computed for each compound to allow the team to make informed decisions when prioritizing. The synthesis progress can be easily tracked. While developing DEGAS, ease of use was a particular goal in order to minimize the difficulty of training and supporting remote users.

Development of a patient decision aid for prevention of myocardial infarction in type 2 diabetes - rationale, design and pilot testing.

PubMed

Lenz, Matthias; Kasper, Jürgen; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2009-10-19

Development and testing of a decision aid about prevention of myocardial infarction for persons with type 2 diabetes. Development and testing were guided by the UK Medical Research Council's guidance for the development and evaluation of complex interventions. This comprised a systematic literature review, a focus group of 9 potential providers, modelling a prototype, interviews to qualitatively explore understanding and additional information needs, and revision of the decision aid. The decision aid includes evidence-based information, a tool for individual risk-assessment, worksheets, and an action plan. Five diabetes educators and 15 patients underwent two 60-minutes face-to-face interviews, firstly browsing the decision aid for the first time and then after using it. Both groups differed in their ratings. Overall, the decision aid was rated to present essential information in a complex but understandable and unbiased manner. Difficulties involved understanding of terminology and risk interpretation. "Social status as a risk factor" was the most challenged content by educators but considered as highly important by patients. The risk assessment tool was used inadequately. 5 patients allocated themselves into false risk categories. After revision of the tool, all 12 patients who were recruited for reassessment used the tool correctly. The decision aid was evaluated with diabetes educators and patients. Qualitative data analysis revealed aspects for revision. The decision aid is planned to be part of a shared decision making programme, comprising a strategy for patient counselling and educational modules addressed to providers. Quantitative evaluation is required to assess its effectiveness.

A Multidisciplinary Sepsis Program Enabled by a Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support System: Factors That Influence Patient Outcomes.

PubMed

Amland, Robert C; Haley, James M; Lyons, Jason J

2016-11-01

Sepsis is an inflammatory response triggered by infection, with risk of in-hospital mortality fueled by disease progression. Early recognition and intervention by multidisciplinary sepsis programs may reverse the inflammatory response among at-risk patient populations, potentially improving outcomes. This retrospective study of a sepsis program enabled by a 2-stage sepsis Clinical Decision Support (CDS) system sought to evaluate the program's impact, identify early indicators that may influence outcomes, and uncover opportunities for quality improvement. Data encompassed 16 527 adult hospitalizations from 2014 and 2015. Of 2108 non-intensive care unit patients screened-in by sepsis CDS, 97% patients were stratified by 177 providers. Risk of adverse outcome improved 30% from baseline to year end, with gains materializing and stabilizing at month 7 after sepsis program go-live. Early indicators likely to influence outcomes include patient age, recent hospitalization, electrolyte abnormalities, hypovolemic shock, hypoxemia, patient location when sepsis CDS activated, and specific alert patterns. © The Author(s) 2015.

Overview of DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sadasivan, Pratap

2012-08-24

Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism. The goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R&D program planning. The PTRA program supports DOE-NE's goal of using risk information to inform R&D program planning. The FY12 PTRA program is focused on terrorism risk. The program includes a mixmore » of innovative methods that support the general practice of risk assessments, and selected applications.« less

Communication about colorectal cancer screening in Britain: public preferences for an expert recommendation.

PubMed

Waller, J; Macedo, A; von Wagner, C; Simon, A E; Jones, C; Hammersley, V; Weller, D; Wardle, J; Campbell, C

2012-12-04

Informed decision-making approaches to cancer screening emphasise the importance of decisions being determined by individuals' own values and preferences. However, advice from a trusted source may also contribute to autonomous decision-making. This study examined preferences regarding a recommendation from the NHS and information provision in the context of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. In face-to-face interviews, a population-based sample of adults across Britain (n=1964; age 50-80 years) indicated their preference between: (1) a strong recommendation to participate in CRC screening, (2) a recommendation alongside advice to make an individual decision, and (3) no recommendation but advice to make an individual decision. Other measures included trust in the NHS and preferences for information on benefits and risks. Most respondents (84%) preferred a recommendation (47% strong recommendation, 37% recommendation plus individual decision-making advice), but the majority also wanted full information on risks (77%) and benefits (78%). Men were more in favour of a recommendation than women (86% vs 81%). Trust in the NHS was high overall, but the minority who expressed low trust were less likely to want a recommendation. Most British adults want full information on risks and benefits of screening but they also want a recommendation from an authoritative source. An 'expert' view may be an important part of autonomous health decision-making.

Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy Ascher

2011-01-01

Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Understanding and acknowledging the ice throw hazard - consequences for regulatory frameworks, risk perception and risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bredesen, R. E.; Drapalik, M.; Butt, B.

2017-11-01

This study attempts to provide the necessary framework required to make sufficiently informed decisions regarding the safety implications of ice throw. The framework elaborates on how to cope with uncertainties, and how to describe results in a meaningful and useful manner to decision makers. Moreover, it points out the moral, judicial and economical obligations of wind turbine owners such that they are able to minimize risk of ice throws as much as possible. Building on the strength of knowledge as well as accounting for uncertainty are also essential in enabling clear communication with stakeholders on the most important/critical/vital issues. With increasing empirical evidence, one can assign a higher confidence level on the expert opinions on safety. Findings regarding key uncertainties of ice risk assessments are presented here to support the ongoing IEA Wind Task 19's work on creating the international guidelines on ice risk assessment due in 2018 (Krenn et al. 2017)[1-6]. In addition the study also incorporates the findings of a Norwegian information project, which focuses on the ice throw hazard for the public (Bredesen, Flage, Butt, Winterwind 2018)[7-9]. This includes measures to reduce damage and hazard from wind turbines for the general public. Recent theory of risk assessment questions the use of risk criteria for achieving optimum risk reduction and favours the use of the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. Given the several practical problems associated with the ALARA approach (e.g. judicial realization), a joint approach, which uses a minimum set of criteria as well as the obligation to meet ALARA is suggested (associated with acceptable cost). The actual decision about acceptance criteria or obligations is a societal one, thus suggestions can be made at best. Risk acceptance, risk perception and risk communication are inextricably linked and should thus never be considered separately. Risk communication can shape risk perception, which again is vital for defining risk acceptance. Moreover, risk communication should be seen as an opportunity to demonstrate trustworthiness and an open, responsible and caring attitude. It is important for the wind industry to avoid accidents: In Winterwind 2017 (Ronsten)[10], the importance for the wind power community to proactively take safety measures for passers-by and service personnel was emphasized: Establishing good practices and communication routines is key to avoid accidents. Visually attractive ways of presenting the risk of ice throw are recommended.

Disclosure and rationality: comparative risk information and decision-making about prevention.

PubMed

Schwartz, Peter H

2009-01-01

With the growing focus on prevention in medicine, studies of how to describe risk have become increasing important. Recently, some researchers have argued against giving patients "comparative risk information," such as data about whether their baseline risk of developing a particular disease is above or below average. The concern is that giving patients this information will interfere with their consideration of more relevant data, such as the specific chance of getting the disease (the "personal risk"), the risk reduction the treatment provides, and any possible side effects. I explore this view and the theories of rationality that ground it, and I argue instead that comparative risk information can play a positive role in decision-making. The criticism of disclosing this sort of information to patients, I conclude, rests on a mistakenly narrow account of the goals of prevention and the nature of rational choice in medicine.

Methods to assess landscape-scale risk of bark beetle infestation to support forest management decisions

Treesearch

T. L. Shore; A. Fall; W. G. Riel; J. Hughes; M. Eng

2010-01-01

The objective of our paper is to provide practitioners with suggestions on how to select appropriate methods for risk assessment of bark beetle infestations at the landscape scale in order to support their particular management decisions and to motivate researchers to refine novel risk assessment methods. Methods developed to assist and inform management decisions for...

Fight or flight: the ethics of emergency physician disaster response.

PubMed

Iserson, Kenneth V; Heine, Carlton E; Larkin, Gregory Luke; Moskop, John C; Baruch, Jay; Aswegan, Andrew L

2008-04-01

Most disaster plans depend on using emergency physicians, nurses, emergency department support staff, and out-of-hospital personnel to maintain the health care system's front line during crises that involve personal risk to themselves or their families. Planners automatically assume that emergency health care workers will respond. However, we need to ask: Should they, and will they, work rather than flee? The answer involves basic moral and personal issues. This article identifies and examines the factors that influence health care workers' decisions in these situations. After reviewing physicians' response to past disasters and epidemics, we evaluate how much danger they actually faced. Next, we examine guidelines from medical professional organizations about physicians' duty to provide care despite personal risks, although we acknowledge that individuals will interpret and apply professional expectations and norms according to their own situation and values. The article goes on to articulate moral arguments for a duty to treat during disasters and social crises, as well as moral reasons that may limit or override such a duty. How fear influences behavior is examined, as are the institutional and social measures that can be taken to control fear and to encourage health professionals to provide treatment in crisis situations. Finally, the article emphasizes the importance of effective risk communication in enabling health care professionals and the public to make informed and defensible decisions during disasters. We conclude that the decision to stay or leave will ultimately depend on individuals' risk assessment and their value systems. Preparations for the next pandemic or disaster should include policies that encourage emergency physicians, who are inevitably among those at highest risk, to "stay and fight."

Heuristic-based information acquisition and decision making among pilots.

PubMed

Wiggins, Mark W; Bollwerk, Sandra

2006-01-01

This research was designed to examine the impact of heuristic-based approaches to the acquisition of task-related information on the selection of an optimal alternative during simulated in-flight decision making. The work integrated features of naturalistic and normative decision making and strategies of information acquisition within a computer-based, decision support framework. The study comprised two phases, the first of which involved familiarizing pilots with three different heuristic-based strategies of information acquisition: frequency, elimination by aspects, and majority of confirming decisions. The second stage enabled participants to choose one of the three strategies of information acquisition to resolve a fourth (choice) scenario. The results indicated that task-oriented experience, rather than the information acquisition strategies, predicted the selection of the optimal alternative. It was also evident that of the three strategies available, the elimination by aspects information acquisition strategy was preferred by most participants. It was concluded that task-oriented experience, rather than the process of information acquisition, predicted task accuracy during the decision-making task. It was also concluded that pilots have a preference for one particular approach to information acquisition. Applications of outcomes of this research include the development of decision support systems that adapt to the information-processing capabilities and preferences of users.

Enhancing the role of science in the decision-making of the European Union.

PubMed

Allio, Lorenzo; Ballantine, Bruce; Meads, Richard

2006-02-01

Used well, science provides effective ways of identifying potential risks, protecting citizens, and using resources wisely. It enables government decisions to be based on evidence and provides a foundation for a rule-based framework that supports global trade. To ensure that the best available science becomes a key input in the decisions made by EU institutions, this abridged version of a working paper produced for the European Policy Centre, a leading, independent think tank, considers how science is currently used in the policy and decision-making processes of the EU, what the limitations of scientific evidence are, and how a risk assessment process based on scientific 'good practices' can be advantageous. Finally, the paper makes recommendations on how to improve the use of science by EU institutions.

Is Mars Sample Return Required Prior to Sending Humans to Mars?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, Michael; Abell, Paul; Allwood, Abigail; Baker, John; Barnes, Jeff; Bass, Deborah; Beaty, David; Boston, Penny; Brinkerhoff, Will; Budney, Charles;

Governance Through Privacy, Fairness, and Respect for Individuals

PubMed Central

Baker, Dixie B.; Kaye, Jane; Terry, Sharon F.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Individuals have a moral claim to be involved in the governance of their personal data. Individuals’ rights include privacy, autonomy, and the ability to choose for themselves how they want to manage risk, consistent with their own personal values and life situations. The Fair Information Practices principles (FIPPs) offer a framework for governance. Privacy-enhancing technology that complies with applicable law and FIPPs offers a dynamic governance tool for enabling the fair and open use of individual’s personal data. Perceptions of Risk: Any governance model must protect against the risks posed by data misuse. Individual perceptions of risks are a subjective function involving individuals’ values toward self, family, and society, their perceptions of trust, and their cognitive decision-making skills. The HIPAA Privacy Rule Puts Some Governance in the Hands of Individuals: Individual privacy protections and individuals’ right to choose are codified in the HIPAA Privacy Rule, which attempts to strike a balance between the dual goals of information flow and privacy protection. The choices most commonly given individuals regarding the use of their health information are binary (“yes” or “no”) and immutable. Recent federal recommendations and law recognize the need for granular, dynamic choices. Building a Governance Framework Based in Trust: Avoiding Surprises: Individuals expect that they will govern the use of their own health and genomic data. Failure to build and maintain individuals’ trust increases the likelihood that they will refuse to grant permission to access or use their data. The “no surprises principle” asserts that an individual’s personal information should never be collected, used, transmitted, or disclosed in a way that would surprise the individual were she to learn about it. Fair Information Practices Principles: The FIPPs provide a powerful framework for enabling data sharing and use, while maintaining trust. We introduce the eight FIPPs adopted by the Department of Health and Human Services, and provide examples of their interpretation and implementation. Reducing Risk through Consumer Engagement: Privacy risk and health risk can be reduced by giving consumers control, autonomy, and transparency, and by engaging them in managing their own health. Explicit “consent” may not always be necessary – the FIPPs offer multiple ways to engender trust and avoid surprises. PMID:27141520

Communicating Numerical Risk: Human Factors That Aid Understanding in Health Care

PubMed Central

Brust-Renck, Priscila G.; Royer, Caisa E.; Reyna, Valerie F.

2014-01-01

In this chapter, we review evidence from the human factors literature that verbal and visual formats can help increase the understanding of numerical risk information in health care. These visual representations of risk are grounded in empirically supported theory. As background, we first review research showing that people often have difficulty understanding numerical risks and benefits in health information. In particular, we discuss how understanding the meanings of numbers results in healthier decisions. Then, we discuss the processes that determine how communication of numerical risks can enhance (or degrade) health judgments and decisions. Specifically, we examine two different approaches to risk communication: a traditional approach and fuzzy-trace theory. Applying research on the complications of understanding and communicating risks, we then highlight how different visual representations are best suited to communicating different risk messages (i.e., their gist). In particular, we review verbal and visual messages that highlight gist representations that can better communicate health information and improve informed decision making. This discussion is informed by human factors theories and methods, which involve the study of how to maximize the interaction between humans and the tools they use. Finally, we present implications and recommendations for future research on human factors in health care. PMID:24999307

Construction and Resource Utilization Explorer (CRUX): Implementing Instrument Suite Data Fusion to Characterize Regolith Hydrogen Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haldemann, Albert F. C.; Johnson, Jerome B.; Elphic, Richard C.; Boynton, William V.; Wetzel, John

2006-01-01

CRUX is a modular suite of geophysical and borehole instruments combined with display and decision support system (MapperDSS) tools to characterize regolith resources, surface conditions, and geotechnical properties. CRUX is a NASA-funded Technology Maturation Program effort to provide enabling technology for Lunar and Planetary Surface Operations (LPSO). The MapperDSS uses data fusion methods with CRUX instruments, and other available data and models, to provide regolith properties information needed for LPSO that cannot be determined otherwise. We demonstrate the data fusion method by showing how it might be applied to characterize the distribution and form of hydrogen using a selection of CRUX instruments: Borehole Neutron Probe and Thermal Evolved Gas Analyzer data as a function of depth help interpret Surface Neutron Probe data to generate 3D information. Secondary information from other instruments along with physical models improves the hydrogen distribution characterization, enabling information products for operational decision-making.

Breast cancer genetic testing: more than a medical management tool.

PubMed

Schroeder, Dawn; Conroy, Sherrill A

2015-10-01

Knowing whether a harmful hereditary mutation exists in BRCA1 and BRCA2 can enable women to make informed decisions regarding surveillance and surgery options to manage risk. Given the attention in the media about BRCA genetic testing, nurses need to revisit how this knowledge may affect a woman's sense of self and the forces that may influence this decision. This article aims to understand how complex the decision to undergo genetic testing may be for some women by exploring the impact of genetic knowledge on the self, changes to customary definitions for health and illness, and ethical issues and social forces that may influence genetic testing decisions. A review of the literature was undertaken to understand how genetic knowledge may alter meanings attached to the breast and how health is defined, and to identify ethical concerns and social forces that may affect a woman's decision to undergo or decline an offer for genetic testing. An understanding and awareness of the potential benefits and harms of BRCA1 and BRCA2 genetic testing, as well as the social forces that may influence a woman's decision to undergo or decline an offer for genetic testing and the commitment to remain open to the uniqueness of each woman's situation, may enhance the nurse-patient relationship and result in a decision that is ethically in the best interest of the patient.

Information and Decision-Making Needs Among People with Anxiety Disorders: Results of an Online Survey.

PubMed

Liebherz, Sarah; Härter, Martin; Dirmaier, Jörg; Tlach, Lisa

2015-12-01

People with anxiety disorders are faced with treatment decisions considerably affecting their life. Patient decision aids are aimed at enabling patients to deliberate treatment options based on individual values and to participate in medical decisions. This is the first study to determine patients' information and decision-making needs as a pre-requisite for the development of patient decision aids for anxiety disorders. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted between January and April 2013 on the e-health portal http://www.psychenet.de by using a self-administered questionnaire with items on internet use, online health information needs, role in decision making and important treatment decisions. Descriptive and inferential statistical as well as qualitative data analyses were performed. A total of 60 people with anxiety disorders with a mean age of 33.3 years (SD 10.5) participated in the survey. The most prevalent reasons for online health information search were the need for general information on anxiety disorders, the search for a physician or psychiatrist and the insufficiency of information given by the healthcare provider. Respondents experienced less shared and more autonomous decisions than they preferred. They assessed decisions on psychotherapy, medication, and treatment setting (inpatient or outpatient) as the most difficult decisions. Our results confirm the importance of offering patient decision aids for people with anxiety disorders that encourage patients to participate in decision making by providing information about the pros and cons of evidence-based treatment options.

Assessing plant protection practices using pressure indicator and toxicity risk indicators: analysis of therelationship between these indicators for improved risk management, application in viticulture.

PubMed

Oussama, Mghirbi; Kamel, Ellefi; Philippe, Le Grusse; Elisabeth, Mandart; Jacques, Fabre; Habiba, Ayadi; Jean-Paul, Bord

2015-06-01

The excessive use of plant protection products (PPPs) has given rise to issues of public and environmental health because of their toxicity. Reducing the use of toxic PPPs and replacing them with products that are less toxic for human health and the environment have become socially, environmentally and economically indispensable. In this article, we assess the plant protection practices of a small group of winegrowers practicing "integrated agriculture" in the south of France, in order to measure the benefit of using toxicity risk indicators as a decision-support tool for different players in land management. An analysis of plant protection practices using indicators of the risk to operator health and the environment (IRSA, IRTE), together with a frequency-of-treatment indicator (TFI), enabled us to (i) show the variability of these indicators depending on the production system and farmers' pesticide use strategies and (ii) calculate correlations between these indicators. This analysis of plant protection practices at different scales (farm, field), carried out in collaboration with the growers, enabled us to perform an initial validation of decision-support tools for determining risk management strategies regarding the use of pesticides.

Free and open source enabling technologies for patient-centric, guideline-based clinical decision support: a survey.

PubMed

Leong, T Y; Kaiser, K; Miksch, S

2007-01-01

Guideline-based clinical decision support is an emerging paradigm to help reduce error, lower cost, and improve quality in evidence-based medicine. The free and open source (FOS) approach is a promising alternative for delivering cost-effective information technology (IT) solutions in health care. In this paper, we survey the current FOS enabling technologies for patient-centric, guideline-based care, and discuss the current trends and future directions of their role in clinical decision support. We searched PubMed, major biomedical informatics websites, and the web in general for papers and links related to FOS health care IT systems. We also relied on our background and knowledge for specific subtopics. We focused on the functionalities of guideline modeling tools, and briefly examined the supporting technologies for terminology, data exchange and electronic health record (EHR) standards. To effectively support patient-centric, guideline-based care, the computerized guidelines and protocols need to be integrated with existing clinical information systems or EHRs. Technologies that enable such integration should be accessible, interoperable, and scalable. A plethora of FOS tools and techniques for supporting different knowledge management and quality assurance tasks involved are available. Many challenges, however, remain in their implementation. There are active and growing trends of deploying FOS enabling technologies for integrating clinical guidelines, protocols, and pathways into the main care processes. The continuing development and maturation of such technologies are likely to make increasingly significant contributions to patient-centric, guideline-based clinical decision support.

Goal-oriented training affects decision-making processes in virtual and simulated fire and rescue environments.

PubMed

Cohen-Hatton, Sabrina R; Honey, R C

2015-12-01

Decisions made by operational commanders at emergency incidents have been characterized as involving a period of information gathering followed by courses of action that are often generated without explicit plan formulation. We examined the efficacy of goal-oriented training in engendering explicit planning that would enable better communication at emergency incidents. While standard training mirrored current operational guidance, goal-oriented training incorporated "decision controls" that highlighted the importance of evaluating goals, anticipated consequences, and risk/benefit analyses once a potential course of action has been identified. In Experiment 1, 3 scenarios (a house fire, road traffic collision, and skip fire) were presented in a virtual environment, and in Experiment 2 they were recreated on the fireground. In Experiment 3, the house fire was recreated as a "live burn," and incident commanders and their crews responded to this scenario as an emergency incident. In all experiments, groups given standard training showed the reported tendency to move directly from information gathering to action, whereas those given goal-oriented training were more likely to develop explicit plans and show anticipatory situational awareness. These results indicate that training can be readily modified to promote explicit plan formulation that could facilitate plan sharing between incident commanders and their teams. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Are electronic health records ready for genomic medicine?

PubMed

Scheuner, Maren T; de Vries, Han; Kim, Benjamin; Meili, Robin C; Olmstead, Sarah H; Teleki, Stephanie

2009-07-01

The goal of this project was to assess genetic/genomic content in electronic health records. Semistructured interviews were conducted with key informants. Questions addressed documentation, organization, display, decision support and security of family history and genetic test information, and challenges and opportunities relating to integrating genetic/genomics content in electronic health records. There were 56 participants: 10 electronic health record specialists, 18 primary care clinicians, 16 medical geneticists, and 12 genetic counselors. Few clinicians felt their electronic record met their current genetic/genomic medicine needs. Barriers to integration were mostly related to problems with family history data collection, documentation, and organization. Lack of demand for genetics content and privacy concerns were also mentioned as challenges. Data elements and functionality requirements that clinicians see include: pedigree drawing; clinical decision support for familial risk assessment and genetic testing indications; a patient portal for patient-entered data; and standards for data elements, terminology, structure, interoperability, and clinical decision support rules. Although most said that there is little impact of genetics/genomics on electronic records today, many stated genetics/genomics would be a driver of content in the next 5-10 years. Electronic health records have the potential to enable clinical integration of genetic/genomic medicine and improve delivery of personalized health care; however, structured and standardized data elements and functionality requirements are needed.

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, and computational exposure assessment, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the computationally enabled “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) conceptmore » in the toxicological sciences. The AEP framework offers an intuitive approach to successful organization of exposure science data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathway and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum and setting the stage for more efficient integration of exposure science and toxicity testing information. Together these frameworks form and inform a decision making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based or exposure-based decisions.« less

Advancing human health risk assessment: Integrating recent advisory committee recommendations

PubMed Central

Becker, Richard A.; Haber, Lynne T.; Pottenger, Lynn H.; Bredfeldt, Tiffany; Fenner-Crisp, Penelope A.

2013-01-01

Over the last dozen years, many national and international expert groups have considered specific improvements to risk assessment. Many of their stated recommendations are mutually supportive, but others appear conflicting, at least in an initial assessment. This review identifies areas of consensus and difference and recommends a practical, biology-centric course forward, which includes: (1) incorporating a clear problem formulation at the outset of the assessment with a level of complexity that is appropriate for informing the relevant risk management decision; (2) using toxicokinetics and toxicodynamic information to develop Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF); (3) using mode of action (MOA) information and an understanding of the relevant biology as the key, central organizing principle for the risk assessment; (4) integrating MOA information into dose–response assessments using existing guidelines for non-cancer and cancer assessments; (5) using a tiered, iterative approach developed by the World Health Organization/International Programme on Chemical Safety (WHO/IPCS) as a scientifically robust, fit-for-purpose approach for risk assessment of combined exposures (chemical mixtures); and (6) applying all of this knowledge to enable interpretation of human biomonitoring data in a risk context. While scientifically based defaults will remain important and useful when data on CSAF or MOA to refine an assessment are absent or insufficient, assessments should always strive to use these data. The use of available 21st century knowledge of biological processes, clinical findings, chemical interactions, and dose–response at the molecular, cellular, organ and organism levels will minimize the need for extrapolation and reliance on default approaches. PMID:23844697

Value of Information for Optimal Adaptive Routing in Stochastic Time-Dependent Traffic Networks: Algorithms and Computational Tools

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-25

Real-time information is important for travelers' routing decisions in uncertain networks by enabling online adaptation to revealed traffic conditions. Usually there are spatial and/or temporal limitations in traveler information. In this research, a...

Designing Visual Aids That Promote Risk Literacy: A Systematic Review of Health Research and Evidence-Based Design Heuristics.

PubMed

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

2017-06-01

Background Effective risk communication is essential for informed decision making. Unfortunately, many people struggle to understand typical risk communications because they lack essential decision-making skills. Objective The aim of this study was to review the literature on the effect of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, and to evaluate the benefits of visual aids in risk communication. Method We present a conceptual framework describing the influence of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, followed by a systematic review of the benefits of visual aids in risk communication for people with different levels of numeracy and graph literacy. The systematic review covers scientific research published between January 1995 and April 2016, drawn from the following databases: Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO, ERIC, Medline, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were investigation of the effect of numeracy and/or graph literacy, and investigation of the effect of visual aids or comparison of their effect with that of numerical information. Thirty-six publications met the criteria, providing data on 27,885 diverse participants from 60 countries. Results Transparent visual aids robustly improved risk understanding in diverse individuals by encouraging thorough deliberation, enhancing cognitive self-assessment, and reducing conceptual biases in memory. Improvements in risk understanding consistently produced beneficial changes in attitudes, behavioral intentions, trust, and healthy behaviors. Visual aids were found to be particularly beneficial for vulnerable and less skilled individuals. Conclusion Well-designed visual aids tend to be highly effective tools for improving informed decision making among diverse decision makers. We identify five categories of practical, evidence-based guidelines for heuristic evaluation and design of effective visual aids.

Can a decision aid enable informed decisions in neonatal nursery recruitment for a fragile X newborn screening study?

PubMed

Bailey, Donald B; Bann, Carla; Bishop, Ellen; Guarda, Sonia; Barnum, Leah; Roche, Myra

2013-04-01

To determine whether a brochure based on principles of informed decision making improved attention to study materials or altered decisions made by parents invited to participate in a fragile X syndrome newborn screening study. A total of 1,323 families were invited to participate in a newborn screening study to identify infants with fragile X syndrome as well as premutation carrier infants. Of these families, 716 received the original project brochure and 607 were given a new decision aid brochure. Families were more likely to look at the new decision aid and mothers were more likely to read it completely, but the proportion of mothers who read the entire decision aid was only 14%. Families were more likely to rate the decision aid as very helpful. Consistent with informed decision making theory and research, participants receiving the decision aid brochure were less likely to agree to participate. The decision aid increased attention to and perceived helpfulness of educational information about the study, but most families did not read it completely. The study suggests that even well-designed study materials are not fully reviewed in the context of in-hospital postpartum study recruitment and may need to be accompanied by a research recruiter to obtain informed consent.

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsunami arrival time and available time for evacuation. Referring to the Aceh 2004 Tsunami, an estimated amount of people affected (dead/injured) of 21000 for Kabubaten Aceh Jaya and 85000 for Kab. Banda Aceh is in a comparable range with reported values of 19661 and 78417 (JICA 2005) respectively. Hence the established methodology provides reliable estimates of people affected and people's ability to reach a safe area. Based on the spatial explicit detection of e.g. high tsunami risk areas (and the assessed root causes therefore), specific disaster risk reduction and early warning strategies can be designed. For example additional installation of technical warning dissemination device, community based preparedness and awareness programmes (education), structural and non-structural measures (e.g. land use conversion, coastal engineering), effective evacuation, contingency and household recovery aid planning can be employed and/or optimized within high tsunami risk areas as a first priority. In the context of early warning, spatially distributed information like degree of expected hazard impact, exposure of critical facilities (e.g. hospitals, schools), potential people dead/injured depending on available response times, location of safe and shelter areas can be disseminated and used for decision making. Keywords: Tsunami risk, hazard and vulnerability assessment, early warning, tsunami mitigation and prevention, Indonesia

A Structured Decision Approach for Integrating and Analyzing Community Perspectives in Re-Use Planning of Vacant Properties in Cleveland, Ohio

EPA Science Inventory

An integrated GIS-based, multi-attribute decision model deployed in a web-based platform is presented enabling an iterative, spatially explicit and collaborative analysis of relevant and available information for repurposing vacant land. The process incorporated traditional and ...

Use of Cognitive Therapy and the Balance Sheet Procedure to Assist Career Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Hare, Marianne M.

1989-01-01

A balance sheet technique enables counselors to help clients identify and overcome anxiety associated with career decision making. Steps include describing the problem, brainstorming alternatives, listing expected positive and negative outcomes in terms of self and others, seeking information, and choosing alternatives. (SK)

Evidence-based patient information about treatment of multiple sclerosis--a phase one study on comprehension and emotional responses.

PubMed

Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2006-07-01

This study analysis the comprehension and emotional responses of people suffering from multiple sclerosis when provided with an evidence-based information module. It is a core module of a comprehensive decision aid about immunotherapy. The core module is designed to enable patients to process scientific uncertainty without adverse effects. It considers existing standards for risk communication and presentation of data. Using a mailing approach we investigated 169 patients with differing courses of disease in a before-after design. Items addressed the competence in processing relative and absolute risk information and patients' emotional response to the tool, comprising grade of familiarity with the information, understanding, relevance, emotional arousal, and certainty. Overall, numeracy improved (p < 0.001), although 99 of 169 patients did not complete the numeracy task correctly. Understanding depended on the relevance related to the course of disease. A moderate level of uncertainty was induced. No adverse emotional responses could be shown, neither in those who did comprehend the information, nor in those who did not develop numeracy skills. In conclusion, the tool supports people suffering from multiple sclerosis to process evidence-based medical information and scientific uncertainty without burdening them emotionally. This study is an example for the documentation of an important step in the development process of a complex intervention.

Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) for environmental development and transfer of antibiotic resistance.

PubMed

Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Amézquita, Alejandro; Backhaus, Thomas; Borriello, Peter; Brandt, Kristian K; Collignon, Peter; Coors, Anja; Finley, Rita; Gaze, William H; Heberer, Thomas; Lawrence, John R; Larsson, D G Joakim; McEwen, Scott A; Ryan, James J; Schönfeld, Jens; Silley, Peter; Snape, Jason R; Van den Eede, Christel; Topp, Edward

2013-09-01

Only recently has the environment been clearly implicated in the risk of antibiotic resistance to clinical outcome, but to date there have been few documented approaches to formally assess these risks. We examined possible approaches and sought to identify research needs to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens. The authors participated in a workshop held 4-8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development "hot spots," exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options. Various novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b) identifying and describing rates of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the relevant environmental "hot spot" compartments; and c) modifying traditional dose-response approaches to address doses of ARB for various health outcomes and pathways. We propose that environmental aspects of antibiotic-resistance development be included in the processes of any HHRA addressing ARB. Because of limited available data, a multicriteria decision analysis approach would be a useful way to undertake an HHRA of environmental antibiotic resistance that informs risk managers.

Theoretical aspects of cellular decision-making and information-processing.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Tetsuya J; Kamimura, Atsushi

2012-01-01

Microscopic biological processes have extraordinary complexity and variety at the sub-cellular, intra-cellular, and multi-cellular levels. In dealing with such complex phenomena, conceptual and theoretical frameworks are crucial, which enable us to understand seemingly different intra- and inter-cellular phenomena from unified viewpoints. Decision-making is one such concept that has attracted much attention recently. Since a number of cellular behavior can be regarded as processes to make specific actions in response to external stimuli, decision-making can cover and has been used to explain a broad range of different cellular phenomena [Balázsi et al. (Cell 144(6):910, 2011), Zeng et al. (Cell 141(4):682, 2010)]. Decision-making is also closely related to cellular information-processing because appropriate decisions cannot be made without exploiting the information that the external stimuli contain. Efficiency of information transduction and processing by intra-cellular networks determines the amount of information obtained, which in turn limits the efficiency of subsequent decision-making. Furthermore, information-processing itself can serve as another concept that is crucial for understanding of other biological processes than decision-making. In this work, we review recent theoretical developments on cellular decision-making and information-processing by focusing on the relation between these two concepts.

Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael Hand

2017-01-01

Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range...

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-03

integrating climate change risks into decision priorities. 15. SUBJECT TERMS adaptation, baseline sensitivity, climate change, climate exposure...four bases we found that integrating climate change risks into the current decision matrix, by linking projected risks to current or past impacts...data and decision tools and methods. Bases have some capacity to integrate climate-related information, but they have limited resources to undertake

A discussion of key values to inform the design and delivery of services for HIV-affected women and couples attempting pregnancy in resource-constrained settings

PubMed Central

Heffron, Renee; Davies, Natasha; Cooke, Ian; Kaida, Angela; Mergler, Reid; van der Poel, Sheryl; Cohen, Craig R; Mmeje, Okeoma

2015-01-01

Introduction HIV-affected women and couples often desire children and many accept HIV risk in order to attempt pregnancy and satisfy goals for a family. Risk reduction strategies to mitigate sexual and perinatal HIV transmission include biomedical and behavioural approaches. Current efforts to integrate HIV and reproductive health services offer prime opportunities to incorporate strategies for HIV risk reduction during pregnancy attempts. Key client and provider values about services to optimize pregnancy in the context of HIV risk provide insights for the design and implementation of large-scale “safer conception” programmes. Discussion Through our collective experience and discussions at a multi-disciplinary international World Health Organization–convened workshop to initiate the development of guidelines and an algorithm of care to support the delivery of services for HIV-affected women and couples attempting pregnancy, we identified four values that are key to the implementation of these programmes: (1) understanding fertility care and an ability to identify potential fertility problems; (2) providing equity of access to resources enabling informed decision-making about reproductive choices; (3) creating enabling environments that reduce stigma associated with HIV and infertility; and (4) creating enabling environments that encourage disclosure of HIV status and fertility status to partners. Based on these values, recommendations for programmes serving HIV-affected women and couples attempting pregnancy include the following: incorporation of comprehensive reproductive health counselling; training to support the transfer and exchange of knowledge between providers and clients; care environments that reduce the stigma of childbearing among HIV-affected women and couples; support for safe and voluntary disclosure of HIV and fertility status; and increased efforts to engage men in reproductive decision-making at times that align with women's desires. Conclusions Programmes, policies and guidelines that integrate HIV treatment and prevention, sexual and reproductive health and fertility care services in a manner responsive to user values and preferences offer opportunities to maximize demand for and use of these services. For HIV-affected women and couples attempting pregnancy, the provision of comprehensive services using available tools – and the development of new tools that are adaptable to many settings and follow consensus recommendations – is a public health imperative. The impetus now is to design and deliver value-driven inclusive programming to achieve the greatest coverage and impact to reduce HIV transmission during pregnancy attempts. PMID:26643454

Understanding clinical and non-clinical decisions under uncertainty: a scenario-based survey.

PubMed

Simianu, Vlad V; Grounds, Margaret A; Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E; Ehlers, Anne P; Agrawal, Nidhi; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Flaxman, Abraham D; Flum, David R

2016-12-01

Prospect theory suggests that when faced with an uncertain outcome, people display loss aversion by preferring to risk a greater loss rather than incurring certain, lesser cost. Providing probability information improves decision making towards the economically optimal choice in these situations. Clinicians frequently make decisions when the outcome is uncertain, and loss aversion may influence choices. This study explores the extent to which prospect theory, loss aversion, and probability information in a non-clinical domain explains clinical decision making under uncertainty. Four hundred sixty two participants (n = 117 non-medical undergraduates, n = 113 medical students, n = 117 resident trainees, and n = 115 medical/surgical faculty) completed a three-part online task. First, participants completed an iced-road salting task using temperature forecasts with or without explicit probability information. Second, participants chose between less or more risk-averse ("defensive medicine") decisions in standardized scenarios. Last, participants chose between recommending therapy with certain outcomes or risking additional years gained or lost. In the road salting task, the mean expected value for decisions made by clinicians was better than for non-clinicians(-$1,022 vs -$1,061; <0.001). Probability information improved decision making for all participants, but non-clinicians improved more (mean improvement of $64 versus $33; p = 0.027). Mean defensive decisions decreased across training level (medical students 2.1 ± 0.9, residents 1.6 ± 0.8, faculty1.6 ± 1.1; p-trend < 0.001) and prospect-theory-concordant decisions increased (25.4%, 33.9%, and 40.7%;p-trend = 0.016). There was no relationship identified between road salting choices with defensive medicine and prospect-theory-concordant decisions. All participants made more economically-rational decisions when provided explicit probability information in a non-clinical domain. However, choices in the non-clinical domain were not related to prospect-theory concordant decision making and risk aversion tendencies in the clinical domain. Recognizing this discordance may be important when applying prospect theory to interventions aimed at improving clinical care.

Treatment decision-making in ductal carcinoma in situ: A mixed methods systematic review of women's experiences and information needs.

PubMed

Rutherford, Claudia; Mercieca-Bebber, Rebecca; Butow, Phyllis; Wu, Jenny Liang; King, Madeleine T

2017-09-01

Decision-making in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is complex due to the heterogeneity of the disease. This study aimed to understand women's experience of making treatment decisions for DCIS, their information and support needs, and factors that influenced decisions. We searched six electronic databases, conference proceedings, and key authors. Two reviewers independently applied inclusion and quality criteria, and extracted findings. Thematic analysis was used to combine and summarise findings. We identified six themes and 28 subthemes from 18 studies. Women with DCIS have knowledge deficits about DCIS, experience anxiety related to information given at diagnosis and the complexity of decision-making, and have misconceptions regarding risks and outcomes of treatment. Women's decisions are influenced by their understanding of risk, the clinical features of their DCIS, and the benefits and harms of treatment options. Women are dissatisfied with the decisional support available. Informed and shared decision-making in this complex decision setting requires clear communication of information specific to DCIS and individual's, as well as decision support for patients and clinicians. This approach would educate patients and clinicians, and assist clinicians in supporting patients to an evidence-based treatment plan that aligns with individual values and pReferences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Information and decision-making needs among people with affective disorders - results of an online survey.

PubMed

Liebherz, Sarah; Tlach, Lisa; Härter, Martin; Dirmaier, Jörg

2015-01-01

Patient decision aids are one possibility for enabling and encouraging patients to participate in medical decisions. This paper aims to describe patients' information and decision-making needs as a prerequisite for the development of high-quality, web-based patient decision aids for affective disorders. We conducted an online cross-sectional survey by using a self-administered questionnaire including items on Internet use, online health information needs, role in decision making, and important treatment decisions, performing descriptive and comparative statistical analyses. A total of 210 people with bipolar disorder/mania as well as 112 people with unipolar depression participated in the survey. Both groups specified general information search as their most relevant information need and decisions on treatment setting (inpatient or outpatient) as well as decisions on pharmacological treatment as the most difficult treatment decisions. For participants with unipolar depression, decisions concerning psychotherapeutic treatment were also especially difficult. Most participants of both groups preferred shared decisions but experienced less shared decisions than desired. Our results show the importance of information for patients with affective disorders, with a focus on pharmacological treatment and on the different treatment settings, and highlight patients' requirements to be involved in the decision-making process. Since our sample reported a chronic course of disease, we do not know if our results are applicable for newly diagnosed patients. Further studies should consider how the reported needs could be addressed in health care practice.

Engineered nanomaterials: toward effective safety management in research laboratories.

PubMed

Groso, Amela; Petri-Fink, Alke; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Hofmann, Heinrich; Meyer, Thierry

2016-03-15

It is still unknown which types of nanomaterials and associated doses represent an actual danger to humans and environment. Meanwhile, there is consensus on applying the precautionary principle to these novel materials until more information is available. To deal with the rapid evolution of research, including the fast turnover of collaborators, a user-friendly and easy-to-apply risk assessment tool offering adequate preventive and protective measures has to be provided. Based on new information concerning the hazards of engineered nanomaterials, we improved a previously developed risk assessment tool by following a simple scheme to gain in efficiency. In the first step, using a logical decision tree, one of the three hazard levels, from H1 to H3, is assigned to the nanomaterial. Using a combination of decision trees and matrices, the second step links the hazard with the emission and exposure potential to assign one of the three nanorisk levels (Nano 3 highest risk; Nano 1 lowest risk) to the activity. These operations are repeated at each process step, leading to the laboratory classification. The third step provides detailed preventive and protective measures for the determined level of nanorisk. We developed an adapted simple and intuitive method for nanomaterial risk management in research laboratories. It allows classifying the nanoactivities into three levels, additionally proposing concrete preventive and protective measures and associated actions. This method is a valuable tool for all the participants in nanomaterial safety. The users experience an essential learning opportunity and increase their safety awareness. Laboratory managers have a reliable tool to obtain an overview of the operations involving nanomaterials in their laboratories; this is essential, as they are responsible for the employee safety, but are sometimes unaware of the works performed. Bringing this risk to a three-band scale (like other types of risks such as biological, radiation, chemical, etc.) facilitates the management for occupational health and safety specialists. Institutes and school managers can obtain the necessary information to implement an adequate safety management system. Having an easy-to-use tool enables a dialog between all these partners, whose semantic and priorities in terms of safety are often different.

The Importance of Conditional Probability in Diagnostic Reasoning and Clinical Decision Making: A Primer for the Eye Care Practitioner.

PubMed

Sanfilippo, Paul G; Hewitt, Alex W; Mackey, David A

2017-04-01

To outline and detail the importance of conditional probability in clinical decision making and discuss the various diagnostic measures eye care practitioners should be aware of in order to improve the scope of their clinical practice. We conducted a review of the importance of conditional probability in diagnostic testing for the eye care practitioner. Eye care practitioners use diagnostic tests on a daily basis to assist in clinical decision making and optimizing patient care and management. These tests provide probabilistic information that can enable the clinician to increase (or decrease) their level of certainty about the presence of a particular condition. While an understanding of the characteristics of diagnostic tests are essential to facilitate proper interpretation of test results and disease risk, many practitioners either confuse or misinterpret these measures. In the interests of their patients, practitioners should be aware of the basic concepts associated with diagnostic testing and the simple mathematical rule that underpins them. Importantly, the practitioner needs to recognize that the prevalence of a disease in the population greatly determines the clinical value of a diagnostic test.

Improving Data Access for Climate Preparedness Through Public-Private Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satkowski, L.; Tewksbury, J.

2017-12-01

With increasing exposure to extreme hurricane and flooding events, a growing number of communities, companies, and civil society organizations around the world are looking to assess climate impacts and vulnerability, and to develop resilience plans. Currently, efforts to turn data into actionable plans are constrained by limited access to robust, actionable data and information. The Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PREP), public-private collaboration that seeks to empower a data-driven approach to building climate resilience, aims to facilitate the process for planners, investors, resource managers, and others to routinely incorporate climate risks into their decisions, by enhancing access to relevant data and facilitating collective learning. Together, this peer-to-peer initiative of approximately 30 government, NGO, and business partners built PREPdata, an intuitive, open map-based platform that enables users to visualize, download and layer data to inform adaptation decision-making. The platform also connects practitioners to data providers, closing the feedback loop between them and enhancing the climate data ecosystem. In this session participants will learn how public-private partnerships can reduce barriers to discovering, accessing climate data and will be given an interactive tutorial on PREPdata, specific to the Gulf of Mexico and hurricane and flooding events. Participants will discover ways to incorporate local data with national and global data, learn about PREPdata application case studies, and how PREPdata can be used to analyze risk in hurricane vulnerable geographies.

Communication models in environmental health.

PubMed

Guidotti, Tee L

2013-01-01

Communication models common in environmental health are not well represented in the literature on health communication. Risk communication is a systematic approach to conveying essential information about a specific environmental issue and a framework for thinking about community risk and the alternatives for dealing with it. Crisis communication is intended to provide essential information to people facing an emergency in order to mitigate its effects and to enable them to make appropriate decisions, and it is primarily used in emergency management. Corporate communication is intended to achieve a change in attitude or perception of an organization, and its role in environmental health is usually public relations or to rehabilitate a damaged reputation. Environmental health education is a more didactic approach to science education with respect to health and the environment. Social marketing uses conventional marketing methods to achieve a socially desirable purpose but is more heavily used in health promotion generally. Communication models and styles in environmental health are specialized to serve the needs of the field in communicating with the community. They are highly structured and executed in different ways but have in common a relative lack of emphasis on changing personal or lifestyle behavior compared with health promotion and public health in general and a tendency to emphasize content on specific environmental issues and decision frameworks for protecting oneself or the community through collective action.

Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials--The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

PubMed

Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

2016-01-15

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is often considered as the most transparent, objective and reliable decision-making tool for informing the risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. ERAs are based on the assumption that it is possible to provide accurate estimates of hazard and exposure and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a "holy grail" for informing risk management. We build this thesis on the analysis of two case studies (of nonylphenol and nanomaterials) as well as a historical analysis in which we address the scientific foundation for ERAs. The analyses show that ERAs do not properly address all aspects of actual risk, such as the mixture effect and the environmentally realistic risk from nanomaterials. Uncertainties have been recognised for decades, and assessment factors are used to compensate for the lack of realism in ERAs. The assessment factors' values were pragmatically determined, thus lowering the scientific accuracy of the ERAs. Furthermore, the default choice of standard assay for assessing a hazard might not always be the most biologically relevant, so we therefore argue that an ERA should be viewed as a pragmatic decision-making tool among several, and it should not have a special status for informing risk management. In relation to other relevant decision-making tools we discuss the use of chemical alternative assessments (CAAs) and the precautionary principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Informed Consent for Electroconvulsive Therapy--Finding Balance.

PubMed

Mankad, Mehul

2015-09-01

Informed consent underpins all medical decisions, including the decision to undergo electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). Written informed consent remains the standard before the initiation of ECT and requires the inclusion of several components to be considered valid. Prospective patients must be aware of risks and benefits of ECT as well as risks and benefits of alternate, and potentially less effective, interventions. Patients must also possess adequate decision-making capacity to make an informed choice about treatment. Consent for ECT may present unique issues, such as the interplay between potential cognitive adverse effects and informed consent. Options to address this concern include thorough explanation of this topic before the initiation of ECT, continued reassessment of consent during ECT, or some combination of approaches.

Backcountry snowmobilers' risk perceptions, avalanche related information seeking behaviours, preparedness and decision-making processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Jennifer

Although there has been substantial research on the avoidance of risk, much less has been completed on voluntary risk. This study examined backcountry snowmobilers' risk perceptions, avalanche related information seeking behaviours, and decision-making processes when dealing with avalanches and backcountry risk in Canada. To accomplish this, in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 participants who were involved in backcountry snowmobiling. Interviews were done both in person and by telephone. The results of this study show that, unlike previous research on snowmobilers, the participants of this study were well prepared and knowledgeable about backcountry risks. All 17 participants stated that they carried a shovel, probe, and transceiver with them on each backcountry trip, and 10 participants had taken an avalanche safety course. Group dynamics and positive peer pressure were influential in promoting safe backcountry behaviour. KEYWORDS: Backcountry snowmobiling, Avalanches, Voluntary Risk, Preparedness, Decision-Making.

Emotion, Affect, and Risk Communication with Older Adults: Challenges and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Finucane, Melissa L.

2008-01-01

Recent research suggests that emotion, affect, and cognition play important roles in risk perception and that their roles in judgment and decision-making processes may change over the lifespan. This paper discusses how emotion and affect might help or hinder risk communication with older adults. Currently, there are few guidelines for developing effective risk messages for the world’s aging population, despite the array of complex risk decisions that come with increasing age and the importance of maintaining good decision making in later life. Age-related declines in cognitive abilities such as memory and processing speed, increased reliance on automatic processes, and adaptive motivational shifts toward focusing more on affective (especially positive) information mean that older and younger adults may respond differently to risk messages. Implications for specific risk information formats (probabilities, frequencies, visual displays, and narratives) are discussed and directions for future research are highlighted. PMID:19169420

The influences and neural correlates of past and present during gambling in humans.

PubMed

Sacré, Pierre; Subramanian, Sandya; Kerr, Matthew S D; Kahn, Kevin; Johnson, Matthew A; Bulacio, Juan; González-Martínez, Jorge A; Sarma, Sridevi V; Gale, John T

2017-12-07

During financial decision-making tasks, humans often make "rational" decisions, where they maximize expected reward. However, this rationality may compete with a bias that reflects past outcomes. That is, if one just lost money or won money, this may impact future decisions. It is unclear how past outcomes influence future decisions in humans, and how neural circuits encode present and past information. In this study, six human subjects performed a financial decision-making task while we recorded local field potentials from multiple brain structures. We constructed a model for each subject characterizing bets on each trial as a function of present and past information. The models suggest that some patients are more influenced by previous trial outcomes (i.e., previous return and risk) than others who stick to more fixed decision strategies. In addition, past return and present risk modulated with the activity in the cuneus; while present return and past risk modulated with the activity in the superior temporal gyrus and the angular gyrus, respectively. Our findings suggest that these structures play a role in decision-making beyond their classical functions by incorporating predictions and risks in humans' decision strategy, and provide new insight into how humans link their internal biases to decisions.

Prioritization of information using decision support systems for seismic risk in Bucharest city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armas, Iuliana; Gheorghe, Diana

2014-05-01

Nowadays, because of the ever increasing volume of information, policymakers are faced with decision making problems. Achieving an objective and suitable decision making may become a challenge. In such situations decision support systems (DSS) have been developed. DSS can assist in the decision making process, offering support on how a decision should be made, rather than what decision should be made (Simon, 1979). This in turn potentially involves a huge number of stakeholders and criteria. Regarding seismic risk, Bucharest City is highly vulnerable (Mandrescu et al., 2007). The aim of this study is to implement a spatial decision support system in order to secure a suitable shelter in case of an earthquake occurrence in the historical centre of Bucharest City. In case of a seismic risk, a shelter is essential for sheltering people who lost their homes or whose homes are in danger of collapsing while people at risk receive first aid in the post-disaster phase. For the present study, the SMCE Module for ILWIS 3.4 was used. The methodology included structuring the problem by creating a decision tree, standardizing and weighting of the criteria. The results showed that the most suitable buildings are Tania Hotel, Hanul lui Manuc, The National Bank of Romania, The Romanian Commercial Bank and The National History Museum.

The development of a decision aid for tinnitus.

PubMed

Pryce, Helen; Durand, Marie-Anne; Hall, Amanda; Shaw, Rachel; Culhane, Beth-Anne; Swift, Sarah; Straus, Jean; Marks, Elizabeth; Ward, Melanie; Chilvers, Katie

2018-05-09

To develop a decision aid for tinnitus care that would meet international consensus for decision aid quality. A mixed methods design that included qualitative in-depth interviews, literature review, focus groups, user testing and readability checking. Patients and clinicians who have clinical experience of tinnitus. A decision aid for tinnitus care was developed. This incorporates key evidence of efficacy for the most frequently used tinnitus care options, together with information derived from patient priorities when deciding which choice to make. The decision aid has potential to enable shared decision making between clinicians and patients in audiology. The decision aid meets consensus standards.

Building a standards-based and collaborative e-prescribing tool: MyRxPad.

PubMed

Nelson, Stuart J; Zeng, Kelly; Kilbourne, John

2011-01-01

MyRxPad (rxp.nlm.nih.gov) is a prototype application intended to enable a practitioner-patient collaborative approach towards e-prescribing: patients play an active role by maintaining up-to-date and accurate medication lists. Prescribers make well-informed and safe prescribing decisions based on personal medication records contributed by patients. MyRxPad is thus the vehicle for collaborations with patients using MyMedicationList (MML). Integration with personal medication records in the context of e-prescribing is thus enabled. We present our experience in applying RxNorm in an e-prescribing setting: using standard names and codes to capture prescribed medication as well as extracting information from RxNorm to support medication-related clinical decision.

Coastal risk forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-03-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

Coastal risk forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-04-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

The Demise of Decision Making: How Information Superiority Degrades Our Ability to Make Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-20

studied the topic of risk in relation to decision making. In fact, Daniel Bernoulli produced findings in 1738 connecting risk aversion to wealth and...determined that they were stalled for some reason and not fighting. 34 Angry of this unplanned halt and potential loss of momentum , Franks sought answers

Implementing health information exchange for public health reporting: a comparison of decision and risk management of three regional health information organizations in New York state

PubMed Central

Phillips, Andrew B; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Merrill, Jacqueline A

2014-01-01

Health information exchange (HIE) is a significant component of healthcare transformation strategies at both the state and national levels. HIE is expected to improve care coordination, and advance public health, but implementation is massively complex and involves significant risk. In New York, three regional health information organizations (RHIOs) implemented an HIE use case for public health reporting by demonstrating capability to deliver accurate responses to electronic queries via a set of services called the Universal Public Health Node. We investigated process and outcomes of the implementation with a comparative case study. Qualitative analysis was structured around a decision and risk matrix. Although each RHIO had a unique operational model, two common factors influenced risk management and implementation success: leadership capable of agile decision-making and commitment to a strong organizational vision. While all three RHIOs achieved certification for the public health reporting, only one has elected to deploy a production version. PMID:23975626

Implementing health information exchange for public health reporting: a comparison of decision and risk management of three regional health information organizations in New York state.

PubMed

Phillips, Andrew B; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Merrill, Jacqueline A

2014-02-01

Health information exchange (HIE) is a significant component of healthcare transformation strategies at both the state and national levels. HIE is expected to improve care coordination, and advance public health, but implementation is massively complex and involves significant risk. In New York, three regional health information organizations (RHIOs) implemented an HIE use case for public health reporting by demonstrating capability to deliver accurate responses to electronic queries via a set of services called the Universal Public Health Node. We investigated process and outcomes of the implementation with a comparative case study. Qualitative analysis was structured around a decision and risk matrix. Although each RHIO had a unique operational model, two common factors influenced risk management and implementation success: leadership capable of agile decision-making and commitment to a strong organizational vision. While all three RHIOs achieved certification for the public health reporting, only one has elected to deploy a production version.

Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...

Development of An Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used by Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final contractor report entitled, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers. This contractor report analyzed how ...

Models, Measurements, and Local Decisions: Assessing and Addressing Impacts from Port Expansion and Traffic Activity

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation includes a combination of modeling and measurement results to characterize near-source air quality in Newark, New Jersey with consideration of how this information could be used to inform decision making to reduce risk of health impacts. Decisions could include ...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuxen, L.

The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRISmore » contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).« less

18 CFR 37.6 - Information to be posted on the OASIS.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... protocols, information regarding the transmission system necessary to enable prudent business decision... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Information to be posted on the OASIS. 37.6 Section 37.6 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY...

18 CFR 37.6 - Information to be posted on the OASIS.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... protocols, information regarding the transmission system necessary to enable prudent business decision... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Information to be posted on the OASIS. 37.6 Section 37.6 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY...

Beyond Prediction: the Many Ways in which Climate Science can Inform Adaptation Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2017-12-01

Climate science provides an increasingly rich understanding of current and future climate, but this understanding is often not fully incorporated into climate adaptation decisions. In particular, the provision of climate information is still trapped in a narrow prediction-based framework, which envisions a sequential process that begins with model-based forecasts of future climate and decision makers then acting on those forecasts. Among its challenges, this framework can discourage action when climate predictions are deemed too uncertain, encourage overconfidence when climate scientists and decision makers fail to focus on decision-relevant but poorly understood extreme events, and offers a too-narrow communication path among climate scientists and decision makers. This talk will describe how robust decision approaches, organized around the idea of stress testing proposed adaptation decisions over a wide range of futures, can enable a richer flow information among climate scientists and decision makers. The talk illustrates these themes with two examples: 1) conservation management that explores the tradeoffs among alternative climate information products with different combinations of ensemble size and spatial resolution and 2) water quality implementation planning that focuses on the handling of extremes.

Decisions without blinders.

PubMed

Bazerman, Max H; Chugh, Dolly

2006-01-01

By the time Merck withdrew its pain relief drug Vioxx from the market in 2004, more than 100 million prescriptions had been filled in the United States alone. Yet researchers now estimate that Vioxx may have been associated with as many as 25,000 heart attacks and strokes. Evidence of the drug's risks was available as early as 2000, so why did so many doctors keep prescribing it? The answer, say the authors, involves the phenomenon of bounded awareness--when cognitive blinders prevent a person from seeing, seeking, using, or sharing highly relevant, easily accessible, and readily perceivable information during the decision-making process. Doctors prescribing Vioxx, for instance, more often than not received positive feedback from patients. So, despite having access to information about the risks, physicians may have been blinded to the actual extent of the risks. Bounded awareness can occur at three points in the decision-making process. First, executives may fail to see or seek out the important information needed to make a sound decision. Second, they may fail to use the information that they do see because they aren't aware of its relevance. Third, executives may fail to share information with others, thereby bounding the organization's awareness. Drawing on examples such as the Challenger disaster and Citibank's failures in Japan, this article examines what prevents executives from seeing what's right in front of them and offers advice on how to increase awareness. Of course, not every decision requires executives to consciously broaden their focus. Collecting too much information for every decision would waste time and other valuable resources. The key is being mindful. If executives think an error could generate almost irrecoverable damage, then they should insist on getting all the information they need to make a wise decision.

Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

PubMed

Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

2012-04-01

Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other risk management situations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

PubMed

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision-Making Framework for Identifying, Assessing and Managing Health Risks (Health Canada, 2000). 4. Canadian Environmental Protection Act: Human Health Risk Assessment of Priority Substances(Health Canada, 1994). 5. CSA-Q8550 Risk Management: Guidelines for Decision-Makers (Canada Standards Association, 1997). 6. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process (US National Research Council, 1983). 7. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (US National Research Council, 1996). 8. Environmental Health Risk Assessment (enHealth Council of Australia, 2002). 9. A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (CCME, 1996). 10. Ecological Risk Assessments of Priority Substances Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (Environment Canada, 1996).11. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (US EPA, 1998b). 12. Proposed Model for Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Management (Rampal & Sadhra, 1999). Based on the extensive review of these frameworks, seven key elements that should be included in a comprehensive framework for human health, ecological, and occupational risk assessment and management were identified: 1. Problem formulation stage. 2. Stakeholder involvement. 3. Communication. 4. Quantitative risk assessment components. 5. Iteration and evaluation. 6. Informed decision making. 7. Flexibility. On the basis of this overarching approach to risk management, the following "checklist" to ensure a good risk management decision is proposed: - Make sure you're solving the right problem. - Consider the problem and the risk within the full context of the situation, using a broad perspective. - Acknowledge, incorporate, and balance the multiple dimensions of risk. - Ensure the highest degree of reliability for all components of the risk management process. - Involve interested and effected parties from the outset of the process. - Commit to honest and open communication between all parties. - Employ continuous evaluation throughout the process (formative, process, and outcome evaluation), and be prepared to change the decision if new information becomes available. Comprehensive and sound principles are critical to providing structure and integrity to risk management frameworks. Guiding principles are intended to provide an ethical grounding for considering the many factors involved in risk management decision making. Ten principles are proposed to guide risk management decision making. The first four principles were adapted and modified from Hattis (1996) along with the addition of two more principles by Hrudey (2000). These have been supplemented by another four principles to make the 10 presented. The principles are based in fundamental ethical principles and values. These principles are intended to be aspirational rather than prescriptive--their application requires flexibility and practical judgement. Risk management is inherently a process in search of balance among competing interests and concerns. Each risk management decision will be "balancing act" of competing priorities, and trade-offs may sometimes have to be made between seemingly conflicting principles. The 10 decision-making principles, with the corresponding ethical principle in italics are: 1. Do more good than harm (beneficence, nonmalificence).- The ultimate goal of good risk management is to prevent or minimize risk, or to "do good" as much as possible. 2. Fair process of decision making (fairness, natural justice). - Risk management must be just, equitable, impartial, unbiased, dispassionate, and objective as far as possible given the circumstances of each situation. 3. Ensure an equitable distribution of risk (equity). - An equitable process of risk management would ensure fair outcomes and equal treatment of all concerned through an equal distribution of benefits and burdens (includes the concept of distributive justice, i.e., equal opportunities for all individuals). 4. Seek optimal use of limited risk management resources (utility). - Optimal risk management demands using limited resources where they will achieve the most risk reduction of overall benefit. 5. Promise no more risk management that can be delivered (honesty).- Unrealistic expectations of risk management can be avoided with honest and candid public accounting of what we know and don't know, and what we can and can't do using risk assessment and risk management. 6. Impose no more risk that you would tolerate yourself (the Golden Rule). - The Golden Rule is important in risk management because it forces decision makers to abandon complete detachment from their decisions so they may understand the perspectives of those affected. 7. Be cautious in the face of uncertainty ("better safe than sorry"). - Risk management must adopt a cautious approach when faced with a potentially serous risk, even if the evidence is uncertain. 8. Foster informed risk decision making for all stakeholders (autonomy). - Fostering autonomous decision making involves both providing people with the opportunity to participate, and full and honest disclosure of all the information required for informed decisions. 9. Risk management processes must be flexible and evolutionary to be open to new knowledge and understanding (evolution, evaluation, iterative process). - The incorporation of new evidence requires that risk management be a flexible, evolutionary, and iterative process, and that evaluation is employed at the beginning and througthout the process. 10. the complete elimination fo risk is not possible (life is not risk free).- Risk is pervasive in our society, and cannot be totally eliminated despite an oft-expressed public desire for "zero risk". However, the level of risk that may ve tolerable by any individual is dependent on values of beliefs, as well as scientific information. Each agency must continue to employ a process that meets the needs of their specific application of risk management. A single approach cannot satisfy the diverse areas to which risk decisions are being applied. However, with increasing experience in the application of the approaches, we are evolving to a common understanding of the essential elements and principles required for successful risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Risk management will continue to be a balancing act of competing priorities and needs. Flexibility and good judgement are ultimately the key to successfully making appropriate risk decisions.

Understanding the Financial Bottom Line: Career Decisions and Money.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martellino, Carl Anthony

Educating career counselors and other practitioners in the career development field on at least the basics of financial planning concepts will enable them to provide clients with a more comprehensive approach to career decisions. A client with an understanding of financial planning basics will be better prepared as an informed, engaged, and…

DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment: FY12 Plans Update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sadasivan, Pratap

2012-06-21

This presentation provides background information on FY12 plans for the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment program. Program plans, organization, and individual project elements are described. Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism - Goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R&D programmore » planning.« less

Adaptive Multi-scale Prognostics and Health Management for Smart Manufacturing Systems

PubMed Central

Choo, Benjamin Y.; Adams, Stephen C.; Weiss, Brian A.; Marvel, Jeremy A.; Beling, Peter A.

2017-01-01

The Adaptive Multi-scale Prognostics and Health Management (AM-PHM) is a methodology designed to enable PHM in smart manufacturing systems. In application, PHM information is not yet fully utilized in higher-level decision-making in manufacturing systems. AM-PHM leverages and integrates lower-level PHM information such as from a machine or component with hierarchical relationships across the component, machine, work cell, and assembly line levels in a manufacturing system. The AM-PHM methodology enables the creation of actionable prognostic and diagnostic intelligence up and down the manufacturing process hierarchy. Decisions are then made with the knowledge of the current and projected health state of the system at decision points along the nodes of the hierarchical structure. To overcome the issue of exponential explosion of complexity associated with describing a large manufacturing system, the AM-PHM methodology takes a hierarchical Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach into describing the system and solving for an optimized policy. A description of the AM-PHM methodology is followed by a simulated industry-inspired example to demonstrate the effectiveness of AM-PHM. PMID:28736651

GPs' decision-making when prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women: Content analysis of a survey.

PubMed

Jayawickrama, Hiranya S; Amir, Lisa H; Pirotta, Marie V

2010-03-23

Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs) for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640). Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. 335 (52%) GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76%) provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%), other infections (24%) and depressive disorders (21%). The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. GPs feel that prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women is a contentious issue. They manage the risk of prescribing by gathering information and assessing the possible effects on the breastfed infant. Without evidence-based information, they sometimes recommend cessation of breastfeeding unnecessarily.

Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

PubMed

Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

2016-04-01

WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making; however, there is concern that the use of these tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic engagement with service users. The majority of participants have positive attitudes towards therapeutic risk, believing that service users have the right to take informed risks in the context of recovery-orientated care. Discussion The provision of education on the use of risk assessment tools within the context of engagement may help minimize views that the use of assessment tools are incompatible with therapeutic engagement. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Providing Quantitative Information and a Nudge to Undergo Stool Testing in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Schwartz, Peter H; Perkins, Susan M; Schmidt, Karen K; Muriello, Paul F; Althouse, Sandra; Rawl, Susan M

2017-08-01

Guidelines recommend that patient decision aids should provide quantitative information about probabilities of potential outcomes, but the impact of this information is unknown. Behavioral economics suggests that patients confused by quantitative information could benefit from a "nudge" towards one option. We conducted a pilot randomized trial to estimate the effect sizes of presenting quantitative information and a nudge. Primary care patients (n = 213) eligible for colorectal cancer screening viewed basic screening information and were randomized to view (a) quantitative information (quantitative module), (b) a nudge towards stool testing with the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) (nudge module), (c) neither a nor b, or (d) both a and b. Outcome measures were perceived colorectal cancer risk, screening intent, preferred test, and decision conflict, measured before and after viewing the decision aid, and screening behavior at 6 months. Patients viewing the quantitative module were more likely to be screened than those who did not ( P = 0.012). Patients viewing the nudge module had a greater increase in perceived colorectal cancer risk than those who did not ( P = 0.041). Those viewing the quantitative module had a smaller increase in perceived risk than those who did not ( P = 0.046), and the effect was moderated by numeracy. Among patients with high numeracy who did not view the nudge module, those who viewed the quantitative module had a greater increase in intent to undergo FIT ( P = 0.028) than did those who did not. The limitations of this study were the limited sample size and single healthcare system. Adding quantitative information to a decision aid increased uptake of colorectal cancer screening, while adding a nudge to undergo FIT did not increase uptake. Further research on quantitative information in decision aids is warranted.

A decision support tool to prioritize risk management options for contaminated sites.

PubMed

Sorvari, Jaana; Seppälä, Jyri

2010-03-15

The decisions on risk management (RM) of contaminated sites in Finland have typically been driven by practical factors such as time and money. However, RM is a multifaceted task that generally involves several additional determinants, e.g. performance and environmental effects of remediation methods, psychological and social factors. Therefore, we adopted a multi-criteria decision analysis approach and developed a decision support tool (DST) that is viable in decision-making in such a complex situation. The basic components of the DST are based on the Dutch REC system. However, our DST is more case-specific and allows the consideration of the type, magnitude and scale of contamination, land use, environmental conditions and socio-cultural aspects (e.g. loss of cultural heritage, image aspects). The construction of the DST was started by structuring the decision problem using a value tree. Based on this work we adopted the Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) for data aggregation. The final DST was demonstrated by two model sites for which the RM alternatives and site-specific data were created on the basis of factual remediation projects and by interviewing experts. The demonstration of the DST was carried out in a workshop where representatives of different stakeholders were requested to rank and weight the decision criteria involved. To get information on the consistency of the ranking of the RM alternatives, we used different weighting techniques (ratio estimation and pair-wise weighting) and alternative ways to treat individual respondents' weights in calculating the preference scores for each RM alternative. These dissimilar approaches resulted in some differences in the preference order of the RM alternatives. The demonstration showed that attention has to be paid to the proper description of the site, the principles of the procedure and the decision criteria. Nevertheless, the procedure proved to enable efficient communication between different stakeholders and the identification of the preferred RM option.

Perceived risks around choice and decision making at end-of-life: a literature review.

PubMed

Wilson, F; Gott, M; Ingleton, C

2013-01-01

the World Health Organization identifies meeting patient choice for care as central to effective palliative care delivery. Little is known about how choice, which implies an objective balancing of options and risks, is understood and enacted through decision making at end-of-life. to explore how perceptions of 'risk' may inform decision-making processes at end-of-life. an integrative literature review was conducted between January and February 2010. Papers were reviewed using Hawker et al.'s criteria and evaluated according to clarity of methods, analysis and evidence of ethical consideration. All literature was retained as background data, but given the significant international heterogeneity the final analysis specifically focused on the UK context. the databases Medline, PsycINFO, Assia, British Nursing Index, High Wire Press and CINAHL were explored using the search terms decision*, risk, anxiety, hospice and palliative care, end-of-life care and publication date of 1998-2010. thematic analysis of 25 papers suggests that decision making at end-of-life is multifactorial, involving a balancing of risks related to caregiver support; service provider resources; health inequalities and access; challenges to information giving; and perceptions of self-identity. Overall there is a dissonance in understandings of choice and decision making between service providers and service users. the concept of risk acknowledges the factors that shape and constrain end-of-life choices. Recognition of perceived risks as a central factor in decision making would be of value in acknowledging and supporting meaningful decision making processes for patients with palliative care needs and their families.

An Overview of Power Capability Requirements for Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Jose M.; Cataldo, Robert L.; Soeder, James F.; Manzo, Michelle A.; Hakimzadeh, Roshanak

2005-01-01

Advanced power is one of the key capabilities that will be needed to achieve NASA's missions of exploration and scientific advancement. Significant gaps exist in advanced power capabilities that are on the critical path to enabling human exploration beyond Earth orbit and advanced robotic exploration of the solar system. Focused studies and investment are needed to answer key development issues for all candidate technologies before down-selection. The viability of candidate power technology alternatives will be a major factor in determining what exploration mission architectures are possible. Achieving the capabilities needed to enable the CEV, Moon, and Mars missions is dependent on adequate funding. Focused investment in advanced power technologies for human and robotic exploration missions is imperative now to reduce risk and to make informed decisions on potential exploration mission decisions beginning in 2008. This investment would begin the long lead-time needed to develop capabilities for human exploration missions in the 2015 to 2030 timeframe. This paper identifies some of the key technologies that will be needed to fill these power capability gaps. Recommendations are offered to address capability gaps in advanced power for Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) power, surface nuclear power systems, surface mobile power systems, high efficiency power systems, and space transportation power systems. These capabilities fill gaps that are on the critical path to enabling robotic and human exploration missions. The recommendations address the following critical technology areas: Energy Conversion, Energy Storage, and Power Management and Distribution.

Dissociable effects of basolateral amygdala lesions on decision making biases in rats when loss or gain is emphasized.

PubMed

Tremblay, Melanie; Cocker, Paul J; Hosking, Jay G; Zeeb, Fiona D; Rogers, Robert D; Winstanley, Catharine A

2014-12-01

Individuals switch from risk seeking to risk aversion when mathematically identical options are described in terms of loss versus gains, as exemplified in the reflection and framing effects. Determining the neurobiology underlying such cognitive biases could inform our understanding of decision making in health and disease. Although reports vary, data using human subjects have implicated the amygdala in such biases. Animal models enable more detailed investigation of neurobiological mechanisms. We therefore tested whether basolateral amygdala (BLA) lesions would affect risk preference for gains or losses in rats. Choices in both paradigms were always between options of equal expected value-a guaranteed outcome, or the 50:50 chance of double or nothing. In the loss-chasing task, most rats exhibited strong risk seeking preferences, gambling at the risk of incurring double the penalty, regardless of the size of the guaranteed loss. In the betting task, the majority of animals were equivocal in their choice, irrespective of bet size; however, a wager-sensitive subgroup progressively shifted away from the uncertain option as the bet size increased, which is reminiscent of risk aversion. BLA lesions increased preference for the smaller guaranteed loss in the loss-chasing task, without affecting choice on the betting task, which is indicative of reduced risk seeking for losses, but intact risk aversion for gains. These data support the hypothesis that the amygdala plays a more prominent role in choice biases related to losses. Given the importance of the amygdala in representing negative affect, the aversive emotional reaction to loss, rather than aberrant estimations of probability or loss magnitude, may underlie risk seeking for losses.

Application of Pyrosequencing® in Food Biodefense.

PubMed

Amoako, Kingsley Kwaku

2015-01-01

The perpetration of a bioterrorism attack poses a significant risk for public health with potential socioeconomic consequences. It is imperative that we possess reliable assays for the rapid and accurate identification of biothreat agents to make rapid risk-informed decisions on emergency response. The development of advanced methodologies for the detection of biothreat agents has been evolving rapidly since the release of the anthrax spores in the mail in 2001, and recent advances in detection and identification techniques could prove to be an essential component in the defense against biological attacks. Sequence-based approaches such as Pyrosequencing(®), which has the capability to determine short DNA stretches in real time using biotinylated PCR amplicons, have potential biodefense applications. Using markers from the virulence plasmids and chromosomal regions, my laboratory has demonstrated the power of this technology in the rapid, specific, and sensitive detection of B. anthracis spores and Yersinia pestis in food. These are the first applications for the detection of the two organisms in food. Furthermore, my lab has developed a rapid assay to characterize the antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gene profiles for Y. pestis using Pyrosequencing. Pyrosequencing is completed in about 60 min (following PCR amplification) and yields accurate and reliable results with an added layer of confidence, thus enabling rapid risk-informed decisions to be made. A typical run yields 40-84 bp reads with 94-100 % identity to the expected sequence. It also provides a rapid method for determining the AMR profile as compared to the conventional plate method which takes several days. The method described is proposed as a novel detection system for potential application in food biodefense.

From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy.

PubMed

Machluf, Yossy; Tal, Orna; Navon, Amir; Chaiter, Yoram

2017-01-01

In the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A) creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B) promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C) creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D) utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions. Used by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

Building Capacity for Earth Observations in Support of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blevins, B.; Prados, A. I.; Hook, E.

2017-12-01

The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) looks to build a future where the international community uses Earth observations to make better, informed decisions. This includes application in international agreements such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and the Convention on Biological Diversity. To do this, decision makers first need to build the necessary skills. NASA's Applied Remote Sensing Training program (ARSET) seeks to build capacity through remote sensing training. In-person and online trainings raise awareness, enable data access, and demonstrate applications of Earth observations. Starting in 2017, ARSET began offering training focused on applying Earth data to the UN SDGs. These trainings offer insight into applications of satellite data in support of implementing, monitoring, and evaluating the SDGs. This presentation will provide an overview of the use of NASA satellite data to track progress towards increased food security, disaster risk reduction, and conservation of natural resources for societal benefit. It will also include a discussion on capacity building best practices and lessons learned for using Earth observations to meet SDG targets, based on feedback from engaging over 800 participants from 89 nations and 580 organizations in ARSET SDG trainings.

Precaution or Integrated Responsibility Approach to Nanovaccines in Fish Farming? A Critical Appraisal of the UNESCO Precautionary Principle.

PubMed

Myhr, Anne Ingeborg; Myskja, Bjørn K

2011-04-01

Nanoparticles have multifaceted advantages in drug administration as vaccine delivery and hence hold promises for improving protection of farmed fish against diseases caused by pathogens. However, there are concerns that the benefits associated with distribution of nanoparticles may also be accompanied with risks to the environment and health. The complexity of the natural and social systems involved implies that the information acquired in quantified risk assessments may be inadequate for evidence-based decisions. One controversial strategy for dealing with this kind of uncertainty is the precautionary principle. A few years ago, an UNESCO expert group suggested a new approach for implementation of the principle. Here we compare the UNESCO principle with earlier versions and explore the advantages and disadvantages by employing the UNESCO version to the use of PLGA nanoparticles for delivery of vaccines in aquaculture. Finally, we discuss whether a combined scientific and ethical analysis that involves the concept of responsibility will enable approaches that can provide a supplement to the precautionary principle as basis for decision-making in areas of scientific uncertainty, such as the application of nanoparticles in the vaccination of farmed fish.

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

2016-04-01

This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.

The Science of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makundi, Willy R.

2002-09-20

What constitutes 'dangerous anthropogenic interference' is a value judgment arrived at through a socio-political process, taking issues like equity and sustainability into account. Science provides key information needed to arrive at an informed judgment. However, that judgment is primarily a political one, and not a purely scientific decision. Such judgments are based on risk assessment, and lead to risk management choices by decision makers, about actions and policies.

Assessing Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Insights Using Retrospective Analysis of Crop Insurance and Climatic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, J. J.; Elias, E.; Eischens, A.; Shilts, M.; Rango, A.; Steele, R.

2017-12-01

The collaborative synthesis of existing datasets, such as long-term climate observations and farmers' crop insurance payments, can increase their overall collective value and societal application. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this mission, Hubs work across USDA and other climate service agencies to synthesize existing information. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program which currently insures over $100 billion in crops annually. RMA hosts data describing the cause for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure) and indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss) at multiple spatio-temporal scales (i.e. state, county, year, month). The objective of this paper is to link climate information with indemnities, and their associated cause of loss, to assess climate risk on agricultural production and provide regionally-relevant information to stakeholders to promote resilient working landscapes. We performed a retrospective trend analysis at the state-level for the American Southwest (SW). First, we assessed indemnity-only trends by cause of loss and crop type at varying temporal scales. Historical monthly weather data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and long-term drought indices (e.g. Palmer Drought Severity Index) were then linked with indemnities and grouped by different causes of loss. Climatological ranks were used to integrate historical comparative intensity of acute and long-term climatic events. Heat and drought as causes of loss were most correlated with temperature and drought indicators, respectively. Across all SW states increasing indemnities were correlated with warmer conditions. Multiple statistical trend analyses suggest a framework is necessary to appropriately measure the biophysical signals in crop insurance trends taking into account spatio-temporal characteristics. Based on stakeholder feedback, we also developed a web-based information browser to visualize and assess indemnity trends providing useful and usable knowledge to support informed land management decisions and ecosystem resilience.

Imaging in Central Nervous System Drug Discovery.

PubMed

Gunn, Roger N; Rabiner, Eugenii A

2017-01-01

The discovery and development of central nervous system (CNS) drugs is an extremely challenging process requiring large resources, timelines, and associated costs. The high risk of failure leads to high levels of risk. Over the past couple of decades PET imaging has become a central component of the CNS drug-development process, enabling decision-making in phase I studies, where early discharge of risk provides increased confidence to progress a candidate to more costly later phase testing at the right dose level or alternatively to kill a compound through failure to meet key criteria. The so called "3 pillars" of drug survival, namely; tissue exposure, target engagement, and pharmacologic activity, are particularly well suited for evaluation by PET imaging. This review introduces the process of CNS drug development before considering how PET imaging of the "3 pillars" has advanced to provide valuable tools for decision-making on the critical path of CNS drug development. Finally, we review the advances in PET science of biomarker development and analysis that enable sophisticated drug-development studies in man. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bringing the market inside.

PubMed

Malone, Thomas W

2004-04-01

During the dot-com boom, many people saw the potential for new communication technologies to enable radically new business models, but they were far too optimistic about the speed with which the revolution would occur. Now, as the bitter disillusionment of the dot-com bust begins to fade, we have a chance to think again--this time more rationally--about how best to take advantage of the remarkable changes these new technologies are gradually making possible. One such change is the ability to create markets inside companies, allowing decision making to be decentralized and introducing some of the efficiency, flexibility, and motivating influence of free markets. In this article, the author examines this nascent form of business organization, exploring the benefits as well as the potential risks. BP, for example, met its goal of reducing the company's greenhouse gas emissions nine years ahead of schedule, not by setting and enforcing targets for each division but by allowing business unit heads to buy and sell emissions permits among themselves using an electronic trading system. And Hewlett-Packard recently experimented with a system that allowed employees to buy and sell predictions about likely printer sales, using a kind of futures contract. The markets ended up predicting the actual printer sales with much more accuracy than official HP forecasts. At a fundamental level, these changes are enabled by the fact that electronic technologies allow information to be widely shared at little cost. This simple fact has a profound implication for organizing businesses. When more people have more information, they can use it to make their own well-informed decisions, appropriate to local circumstances, instead of following orders from above. As a result, even very large companies can benefit from the collective wisdom of their employees.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Monitoring Department of the Interior Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutt, M. E.; Quirk, B.

2013-12-01

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) technology is quickly evolving and will have a significant impact on Earth science research. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an operational test and evaluation of UAS to see how this technology supports the mission of the Department of the Interior (DOI). Over the last 4 years, the USGS, working with many partners, has been actively conducting proof of concept UAS operations, which are designed to evaluate the potential of UAS technology to support the mandated DOI scientific, resource and land management missions. UAS technology is being made available to monitor environmental conditions, analyze the impacts of climate change, respond to natural hazards, understand landscape change rates and consequences, conduct wildlife inventories and support related land management and law enforcement missions. Using small UAS (sUAS), the USGS is able to tailor solutions to meet project requirements by obtaining very high resolution video data, acquiring thermal imagery, detecting chemical plumes, and generating digital terrain models at a fraction of the cost of conventional surveying methods. UAS technology is providing a mechanism to collect timely remote sensing data at a low cost and at low risk over DOI lands that can be difficult to monitor and consequently enhances our ability to provide unbiased scientific information to better enable decision makers to make informed decisions. This presentation describes the UAS technology and infrastructure being employed, the application projects already accomplished, lessons learned and future of UAS within the DOI. We fully expect that by 2020 UAS will emerge as a primary platform for all DOI remote sensing applications. Much like the use of Internet technology, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Global Positioning Systems (GPS), UAS have the potential of enabling the DOI to be better stewards of the land.

Copernicus: a quantum leap in Earth Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschbacher, Josef

2015-04-01

Copernicus is the most ambitious, most comprehensive Earth observation system world-wide. It aims at giving decision-makers better information to act upon, at global, continental, national and regional level. The European Union (EU) leads the overall programme, while the European Space Agency (ESA) coordinates the space component. Similar to meteorology, satellite data is combined with data from airborne and ground sensors to provide a holistic view of the state of the planet. All these data are fed into a range of thematic information services designed to benefit the environment and to support policy-makers and other stakeholders to make decisions, coordinate policy areas, and formulate strategies relating to the environment. Moreover, the data will also be used for predicting future climate trends. Never has such a comprehensive Earth-observation based system been in place before. It will be fully integrated into an informed decision making process, thus enabling economic and social benefits through better access to information globally. A key feature of Copernicus is the free and open data policy of the Sentinel satellite data. This will enable that Earth observation based information enters completely new domains of daily life. High quality, regularly updated satellite observations become available for basically everyone. To ensure universal access new ground segment and data access concepts need to be developed. As more data are made available, better decisions can made, more business will be created and science and research can be achieved through the upcoming Sentinel data.

Young patients', parents', and survivors' communication preferences in paediatric oncology: results of online focus groups.

PubMed

Zwaanswijk, Marieke; Tates, Kiek; van Dulmen, Sandra; Hoogerbrugge, Peter M; Kamps, Willem A; Bensing, Jozien M

2007-11-09

Guidelines in paediatric oncology encourage health care providers to share relevant information with young patients and parents to enable their active participation in decision making. It is not clear to what extent this mirrors patients' and parents' preferences. This study investigated communication preferences of childhood cancer patients, parents, and survivors of childhood cancer. Communication preferences were examined by means of online focus groups. Seven patients (aged 8-17), 11 parents, and 18 survivors (aged 8-17 at diagnosis) participated. Recruitment took place by consecutive inclusion in two Dutch university oncological wards. Questions concerned preferences regarding interpersonal relationships, information exchange and participation in decision making. Participants expressed detailed and multi-faceted views regarding their needs and preferences in communication in paediatric oncology. They agreed on the importance of several interpersonal and informational aspects of communication, such as honesty, support, and the need to be fully informed. Participants generally preferred a collaborative role in medical decision making. Differences in views were found regarding the desirability of the patient's presence during consultations. Patients differed in their satisfaction with their parents' role as managers of the communication. Young patients' preferences mainly concur with current guidelines of providing them with medical information and enabling their participation in medical decision making. Still, some variation in preferences was found, which faces health care providers with the task of balancing between the sometimes conflicting preferences of young cancer patients and their parents.

Managing uncertainty about food risks - Consumer use of food labelling.

PubMed

Tonkin, Emma; Coveney, John; Meyer, Samantha B; Wilson, Annabelle M; Webb, Trevor

2016-12-01

General consumer knowledge of and engagement with the production of food has declined resulting in increasing consumer uncertainty about, and sensitivity to, food risks. Emphasis is therefore placed on providing information for consumers to reduce information asymmetry regarding food risks, particularly through food labelling. This study examines the role of food labelling in influencing consumer perceptions of food risks. In-depth, 1-h interviews were conducted with 24 Australian consumers. Participants were recruited based on an a priori defined food safety risk scale, and to achieve a diversity of demographic characteristics. The methodological approach used, adaptive theory, was chosen to enable a constant interweaving of theoretical understandings and empirical data throughout the study. Participants discussed perceiving both traditional (food spoilage/microbial contamination) and modern (social issues, pesticide and 'chemical' contamination) risks as present in the food system. Food labelling was a symbol of the food system having managed traditional risks, and a tool for consumers to personally manage perceived modern risks. However, labelling also raised awareness of modern risks not previously considered. The consumer framing of risk presented demonstrates the need for more meaningful consumer engagement in policy decision making to ensure risk communication and management meet public expectations. This research innovatively identifies food labelling as both a symbol of, and a tool for, the management of perceived risks for consumers. Therefore it is imperative that food system actors ensure the authenticity and trustworthiness of all aspects of food labelling, not only those related to food safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grid Inertial Response-Based Probabilistic Determination of Energy Storage System Capacity Under High Solar Penetration

DOE PAGES

Yue, Meng; Wang, Xiaoyu

2015-07-01

It is well-known that responsive battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are an effective means to improve the grid inertial response to various disturbances including the variability of the renewable generation. One of the major issues associated with its implementation is the difficulty in determining the required BESS capacity mainly due to the large amount of inherent uncertainties that cannot be accounted for deterministically. In this study, a probabilistic approach is proposed to properly size the BESS from the perspective of the system inertial response, as an application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The proposed approach enables a risk-informed decision-making processmore » regarding (1) the acceptable level of solar penetration in a given system and (2) the desired BESS capacity (and minimum cost) to achieve an acceptable grid inertial response with a certain confidence level.« less

Does Using Nonnumerical Terms to Describe Risk Aid Violence Risk Communication? Clinician Agreement and Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilton, N. Zoe; Carter, Angela M.; Harris, Grant T.; Sharpe, Amilynn J. B.

2008-01-01

Actuarial risk assessments yield valid numerical information about violence risk, but research suggests that forensic clinicians prefer to communicate risk using nonnumerical information (i.e., verbal terms such as high risk). In an experimental questionnaire study, 60 forensic clinicians disagreed on the interpretation of nonnumerical terms, and…

Searching Choices: Quantifying Decision-Making Processes Using Search Engine Data.

PubMed

Moat, Helen Susannah; Olivola, Christopher Y; Chater, Nick; Preis, Tobias

2016-07-01

When making a decision, humans consider two types of information: information they have acquired through their prior experience of the world, and further information they gather to support the decision in question. Here, we present evidence that data from search engines such as Google can help us model both sources of information. We show that statistics from search engines on the frequency of content on the Internet can help us estimate the statistical structure of prior experience; and, specifically, we outline how such statistics can inform psychological theories concerning the valuation of human lives, or choices involving delayed outcomes. Turning to information gathering, we show that search query data might help measure human information gathering, and it may predict subsequent decisions. Such data enable us to compare information gathered across nations, where analyses suggest, for example, a greater focus on the future in countries with a higher per capita GDP. We conclude that search engine data constitute a valuable new resource for cognitive scientists, offering a fascinating new tool for understanding the human decision-making process. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Topics in Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

Informed choice in direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) websites: a content analysis of benefits, risks, and limitations.

PubMed

Singleton, Amanda; Erby, Lori Hamby; Foisie, Kathryn V; Kaphingst, Kimberly A

2012-06-01

An informed choice about health-related direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) requires knowledge of potential benefits, risks, and limitations. To understand the information that potential consumers of DTCGT services are exposed to on company websites, we conducted a content analysis of 23 health-related DTCGT websites. Results revealed that benefit statements outweighed risk and limitation statements 6 to 1. The most frequently described benefits were: 1) disease prevention, 2) consumer education, 3) personalized medical recommendations, and 4) the ability to make health decisions. Thirty-five percent of websites also presented at least one risk of testing. Seventy-eight percent of websites mentioned at least one limitation of testing. Based on this information, potential consumers might get an inaccurate picture of genetic testing which could impact their ability to make an informed decision. Practices that enhance the presentation of balanced information on DTCGT company websites should be encouraged.

Monitoring for the management of disease risk in animal translocation programmes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Hollmen, Tuula E.; Grand, James B.

2017-01-01

Monitoring is best viewed as a component of some larger programme focused on science or conservation. The value of monitoring is determined by the extent to which it informs the parent process. Animal translocation programmes are typically designed to augment or establish viable animal populations without changing the local community in any detrimental way. Such programmes seek to minimize disease risk to local wild animals, to translocated animals, and in some cases to humans. Disease monitoring can inform translocation decisions by (1) providing information for state-dependent decisions, (2) assessing progress towards programme objectives, and (3) permitting learning in order to make better decisions in the future. Here we discuss specific decisions that can be informed by both pre-release and post-release disease monitoring programmes. We specify state variables and vital rates needed to inform these decisions. We then discuss monitoring data and analytic methods that can be used to estimate these state variables and vital rates. Our discussion is necessarily general, but hopefully provides a basis for tailoring disease monitoring approaches to specific translocation programmes.

Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

PubMed

Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

2011-07-01

The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Probabilistic Weather Information Tailored to the Needs of Transmission System Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberts, I.; Stauch, V.; Lee, D.; Hagedorn, R.

2014-12-01

Reliable and accurate forecasts for wind and photovoltaic (PV) power production are essential for stable transmission systems. A high potential for improving the wind and PV power forecasts lies in optimizing the weather forecasts, since these energy sources are highly weather dependent. For this reason the main objective of the German research project EWeLiNE is to improve the quality the underlying numerical weather predictions towards energy operations. In this project, the German Meteorological Service (DWD), the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology, and three of the German transmission system operators (TSOs) are working together to improve the weather and power forecasts. Probabilistic predictions are of particular interest, as the quantification of uncertainties provides an important tool for risk management. Theoretical considerations suggest that it can be advantageous to use probabilistic information to represent and respond to the remaining uncertainties in the forecasts. However, it remains a challenge to integrate this information into the decision making processes related to market participation and power systems operations. The project is planned and carried out in close cooperation with the involved TSOs in order to ensure the usability of the products developed. It will conclude with a demonstration phase, in which the improved models and newly developed products are combined into a process chain and used to provide information to TSOs in a real-time decision support tool. The use of a web-based development platform enables short development cycles and agile adaptation to evolving user needs. This contribution will present the EWeLiNE project and discuss ideas on how to incorporate probabilistic information into the users' current decision making processes.

Key Financial Metrics on Australia's Higher Education Sector. Selected Insights--April 2016

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency, 2016

2016-01-01

Tertiary Education Quality and Standards (TEQSA) is committed to ensuring that stakeholders in Australia's higher education sector have access to relevant information to enable and better inform decision making. TEQSA recognises that there is little publicly available information on Australia's higher education sector beyond the university sector.…

Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

PubMed

Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

2016-12-01

Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a qualitative or semi-quantitative rather than fully quantitative risk assessment, but an added benefit is that the disciplined structuring of available knowledge enables clear identification of gaps to target resources and if appropriate, instigate data generation. © 2016 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, Johann; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Kulkarni, Chetan

2015-01-01

With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

The Annapolis Accords on the use of toxicology in decision-making. Annapolis Center Workshop Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gray, G.M.; Baskin, S.I.; Charnley, G.

2000-12-01

The science of toxicology plays an important role in identifying safe conditions of use or exposure for many different kinds of environmental agents. The use of toxicologic information in risk assessment requires careful analysis, evaluation of data, and scientific judgment. These Annapolis Accords are intended to guide appropriate use in risk assessment of the scientific information from toxicology. We believe that application of these principles will improve the scientific credibility of risk assessment and the quality of decisions aimed at reducing and eliminating risks to human health and the environment.

Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

2016-01-01

NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically, this paper will describe the processes that the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Technology Assessment and Integration Team (TAIT) has used for several years and how those processes have been customized to meet customer needs while staying robust and defensible. This paper will show how HEOMD uses these analyses results to assist with making informed portfolio investment decisions. The paper will also highlight which human exploration capabilities and technologies typically rank high regardless of the specific design reference mission. The paper will conclude by describing future capability and technology ranking activities that will continue o leverage subject matter experts (SME) input while also incorporating more model-based analysis.

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-08-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

2017-04-01

Floods have devastating effects on lives and livelihoods around the world. Structural flood defence measures such as dikes and dams can help protect people. However, it is the emerging science and technologies for flood disaster management and preparedness, such as increasingly accurate flood forecasting systems, high-resolution satellite monitoring, rapid risk mapping, and the unique strength of social media information and crowdsourcing, that are most promising for reducing the impacts of flooding. Here, we describe an innovative framework which integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. The integrated framework enables improved flood impact forecast, thanks to the real-time integration of forecasting and monitoring components, and increases the timeliness and efficiency of satellite mapping, with the aim of capturing flood peaks and following the evolution of flooding processes. Thanks to the proposed framework, emergency responders will have access to a broad range of timely and accurate information for more effective and robust planning, decision-making, and resource allocation.

Best practices in ranking communicable disease threats: a literature review, 2015.

PubMed

O'Brien, Eleanor Charlotte; Taft, Rachel; Geary, Katie; Ciotti, Massimo; Suk, Jonathan E

2016-04-28

The threat of serious, cross-border communicable disease outbreaks in Europe poses a significant challenge to public health and emergency preparedness because the relative likelihood of these threats and the pathogens involved are constantly shifting in response to a range of changing disease drivers. To inform strategic planning by enabling effective resource allocation to manage the consequences of communicable disease outbreaks, it is useful to be able to rank and prioritise pathogens. This paper reports on a literature review which identifies and evaluates the range of methods used for risk ranking. Searches were performed across biomedical and grey literature databases, supplemented by reference harvesting and citation tracking. Studies were selected using transparent inclusion criteria and underwent quality appraisal using a bespoke checklist based on the AGREE II criteria. Seventeen studies were included in the review, covering five methodologies. A narrative analysis of the selected studies suggests that no single methodology was superior. However, many of the methods shared common components, around which a 'best-practice' framework was formulated. This approach is intended to help inform decision makers' choice of an appropriate risk-ranking study design.

Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Volz, Kirsten G.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-01-01

We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (“small world”), all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (“large”) worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries), with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift toward studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples. PMID:22807893

[1-benzylpiperazine (BZP) and 1-(3-trifluorométhylphényl)pipérazine (TFMPP): emergence of two agents which lead to misuse].

PubMed

Lecompte, Y; Roussel, O; Perrin, M

2008-03-01

1-benzylpiperazine (BZP) and 1-(3-trifluoromethylphenyl)piperazine (TFMPP) are psychoactive agents which have become available on the illicit drug market in France since 2006. These compounds are employed for their stimulating, enacting, and "recreational" properties. The combination of BZP and TFMPP enables drug users to reproduce the domaminergic and serotoninergic components of amphetamine derivatives. Intoxication can be life threatening for BZP. This compound has been detected, in association with other psychoactive agents with similar action, in several fatal cases. In addition, there is a potential risk of addiction, confirmed in animal models. The toxicity of TFMPP appears to be weaker with no apparent risk of addiction. There is however a risk of serious psychiatric manifestations and serotoninergic syndrome. There are certain national regulations, but to date no international regulations have been developed for BZP and TFMPP. In the European Union, BZP is now being monitored in compliance with the 10 May 2005 decision of the Commision on information sharing, risk evaluation, and control relative to new psychoactive agents.

Cytogenetic risks in chromosomally normal infertile men.

PubMed

Tempest, Helen G; Martin, Renee H

2009-06-01

Infertility is a growing problem that affects a surprisingly high number of couples (15%) of which the causes often remain 'unexplained'. However, more and more genetic causes underlying male infertility are emerging. Research has begun to shed light on the causes of previously unexplained male infertility with clear links now established with infertility and meiotic defects in pairing, synapsis and recombination as well as increased levels of sperm aneuploidy. However, many have questioned whether this increase in sperm aneuploidy is observed in conceptuses or live birth; research suggests that this increase in aneuploidy is in fact paralleled in intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) conceptions. Further research is warranted investigating the relationship between sperm aneuploidy and risk to ICSI conceptuses. Several infertility phenotypes have clearly been identified having a higher risk of sperm aneuploidy and may benefit from sperm aneuploidy screening prior to ICSI. Such screening would ultimately assist couples in deciding on the relative risk of undertaking ICSI and enable them to make informed decisions on whether to proceed with ICSI or to combine it with further screening such as preimplantation genetic diagnosis.

Should the model for risk-informed regulation be game theory rather than decision theory?

PubMed

Bier, Vicki M; Lin, Shi-Woei

2013-02-01

Risk analysts frequently view the regulation of risks as being largely a matter of decision theory. According to this view, risk analysis methods provide information on the likelihood and severity of various possible outcomes; this information should then be assessed using a decision-theoretic approach (such as cost/benefit analysis) to determine whether the risks are acceptable, and whether additional regulation is warranted. However, this view ignores the fact that in many industries (particularly industries that are technologically sophisticated and employ specialized risk and safety experts), risk analyses may be done by regulated firms, not by the regulator. Moreover, those firms may have more knowledge about the levels of safety at their own facilities than the regulator does. This creates a situation in which the regulated firm has both the opportunity-and often also the motive-to provide inaccurate (in particular, favorably biased) risk information to the regulator, and hence the regulator has reason to doubt the accuracy of the risk information provided by regulated parties. Researchers have argued that decision theory is capable of dealing with many such strategic interactions as well as game theory can. This is especially true in two-player, two-stage games in which the follower has a unique best strategy in response to the leader's strategy, as appears to be the case in the situation analyzed in this article. However, even in such cases, we agree with Cox that game-theoretic methods and concepts can still be useful. In particular, the tools of mechanism design, and especially the revelation principle, can simplify the analysis of such games because the revelation principle provides rigorous assurance that it is sufficient to analyze only games in which licensees truthfully report their risk levels, making the problem more manageable. Without that, it would generally be necessary to consider much more complicated forms of strategic behavior (including deception), to identify optimal regulatory strategies. Therefore, we believe that the types of regulatory interactions analyzed in this article are better modeled using game theory rather than decision theory. In particular, the goals of this article are to review the relevant literature in game theory and regulatory economics (to stimulate interest in this area among risk analysts), and to present illustrative results showing how the application of game theory can provide useful insights into the theory and practice of risk-informed regulation. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

How Numeracy Influences Risk Comprehension and Medical Decision Making

PubMed Central

Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Dieckmann, Nathan F.

2009-01-01

We review the growing literature on health numeracy, the ability to understand and use numerical information, and its relation to cognition, health behaviors, and medical outcomes. Despite the surfeit of health information from commercial and noncommercial sources, national and international surveys show that many people lack basic numerical skills that are essential to maintain their health and make informed medical decisions. Low numeracy distorts perceptions of risks and benefits of screening, reduces medication compliance, impedes access to treatments, impairs risk communication (limiting prevention efforts among the most vulnerable), and, based on the scant research conducted on outcomes, appears to adversely affect medical outcomes. Low numeracy is also associated with greater susceptibility to extraneous factors (i.e., factors that do not change the objective numerical information). That is, low numeracy increases susceptibility to effects of mood or how information is presented (e.g., as frequencies vs. percentages) and to biases in judgment and decision making (e.g., framing and ratio bias effects). Much of this research is not grounded in empirically supported theories of numeracy or mathematical cognition, which are crucial for designing evidence-based policies and interventions that are effective in reducing risk and improving medical decision making. To address this gap, we outline four theoretical approaches (psychophysical, computational, standard dual-process, and fuzzy trace theory), review their implications for numeracy, and point to avenues for future research. PMID:19883143

Flexing dual-systems models: How variable cognitive control in children informs our understanding of risk-taking across development.

PubMed

Li, Rosa

2017-10-01

Prevailing models of the development of decision-making propose that peak risk-taking occurs in adolescence due to a neural imbalance between two processes: gradual, linearly developing cognitive control and rapid, non-linearly developing reward-processing. Though many studies have found neural evidence supporting this dual-systems imbalance model, its behavioral predictions have been surprisingly difficult to document. Most laboratory studies have not found adolescents to exhibit greater risk-taking than children, and public health data show everyday risk-taking to peak in late adolescence/early adulthood. Moreover, when adolescents are provided detailed information about decision options and consequences, they evince similar behavior to adults. Such findings point to a critical feature of the development of decision-making that is missed by imbalance models. Specifically, the engagement of cognitive control is context dependent, such that cognitive control and therefore advantageous decision-making increases when available information is high and decreases when available information is low. Furthermore, the context dependence of cognitive control varies across development, such that increased information availability benefits children more than adolescents, who benefit more than adults. This review advances a flexible dual-systems model that is only imbalanced under certain conditions; explains disparities between neural, behavioral, and public health findings; and provides testable hypotheses for future research. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization.

PubMed

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Sim, Sam K Y; Chee, Michael W L; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

2015-01-01

We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble) and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices) within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning. We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61-80 years old) were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic decision-making for losses through changes in both individual preferences and the strategies individuals employ.

Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age - A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions.

PubMed

Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

2017-01-01

The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors - responsible for age-related differences in decision making - are additionally pointed out.

Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age – A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions

PubMed Central

Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

2017-01-01

The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors – responsible for age-related differences in decision making – are additionally pointed out. PMID:29270145

Perceptions of the risks and benefits of fish consumption: Individual choices to reduce risk and increase health benefits

PubMed Central

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

2014-01-01

Studies of fish consumption often focus on awareness of and adherence to advisories, how much fish people eat, and contaminant levels in those fish. This paper examines knowledge and accuracy of risks and benefits of fish consumption among fishers and other recreationists in the New York Bight, indicative of whether they could make sound dietary decisions. While most respondents knew about health risks (70%) and benefits (94%) of consuming fish, far fewer could name specific risks and benefits. Less than 25% of respondents mentioned mercury and less than 15% mentioned that pregnant women and children were at risk. Far fewer people mentioned polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Nearly 70% said it was healthy to eat fish, and 45% were aware that fish were rich in healthful oils. Despite the lack of details about what specific risks and benefits of fish, well over a third did not feel they needed more information. Other respondents had basic questions, but did not pose specific questions about the fish they caught or ate that would have clarified their individual risk-balancing decisions. Knowledge of which fish were high in contaminants did not match the mercury or PCB levels in those fish. There was a disconnect between the information base about specific risks and benefits of fish consumption, levels of mercury and PCBs in fish, and the respondent’s desire for more information. These data indicate that respondents did not have enough accurate information about contaminants in fish to make informed risk-balancing decisions. PMID:19193369

Assessing the Risk of Aquifer Salinization in a Large-Scale Coastal Irrigation Scheme in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaccaria, Daniele; Passarella, Giuseppe; D'Agostino, Daniela; Giordano, Raffaele; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; Maggi, Sabino; Bruno, Delia; Foglia, Laura

2017-04-01

A research study was conducted on a coastal irrigated agricultural area of southern Italy to assess the risks of aquifer degradation likely resulting from the intensive groundwater pumping from individual farm wells and reduced aquifer recharge. Information were collected both from farmers and delivery system's operators during a survey conducted in 2012 revealing that farmers depend mainly on groundwater with the aim to achieve flexible irrigation management as opposed to the rigid rotational delivery service of surface water supply provided by the local water management agency. The study area is intensively farmed by small land-holding growers with high-value micro-irrigated horticultural crops. Our team appraised the soil and aquifer degradation hazards using a simplified procedure for environmental risk assessment that allowed identifying the risk-generating processes, evaluating the magnitude of impacts, and estimating the overall risks significance. We also collected the stakeholders' perceptions on agricultural water management and use through field interviews, whereas parallel investigations revealed significant aquifer salinity increase during the recent years. As a final step, some preliminary risk mitigation options were appraised by exploring the growers' response to possible changes of irrigation deliveries by the water management agency. The present study integrated multi-annual observations, data interpretation, and modelling efforts, which jointly enabled the analysis of complex water management scenarios and the development of informed decisions. Keywords: Environmental risk assessment, Fuzzy cognitive maps, Groundwater degradation, Seawater intrusion

Informed consent: not just for procedures anymore.

PubMed

Feld, Andrew D

2004-06-01

The ethical and legal requirement to obtain informed consent prior to performing a procedure or administering a treatment derives from the concept of personal (patient) autonomy. The competent patient, after receiving appropriate disclosure of the material risks of the procedure or treatment, understanding those risks, the benefits, and the alternative approaches, makes a voluntary and uncoerced informed decision to proceed. This article will present a general overview of the modern concept of informed consent as a process (mutual communication) rather than an event (document signing). The historical evolution of this concept and the legal rulings that have shaped the requirements of informed consent will be cited. The benefits of informed decision making as a communication and risk management tool are presented. This review is intended as general information, and not as legal advice, which should be sought from a health-care attorney.

Enabling the participation of marginalized populations: case studies from a health service organization in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Montesanti, Stephanie R; Abelson, Julia; Lavis, John N; Dunn, James R

2017-08-01

We examined efforts to engage marginalized populations in Ontario Community Health Centers (CHCs), which are primary health care organizations serving 74 high-risk communities. Qualitative case studies of community participation in four Ontario CHCs were carried out through key informant interviews with CHC staff to identify: (i) the approaches, strategies and methods used in participation initiatives aimed specifically at engaging marginalized populations in the planning of and decision making for health services; and (ii) the challenges and enablers for engaging these populations. The marginalized populations involved in the community participation initiatives studied included Low-German Speaking Mennonites in a rural town, newcomer immigrants and refugees in an urban downtown city, immigrant and francophone seniors in an inner city and refugee women in an inner city. Our analysis revealed that enabling the participation of marginalized populations requires CHCs to attend to the barriers experienced by marginalized populations that constrain their participation. Key informants outlined the features of a 'community development approach' that they rely on to address the barriers to marginalized peoples' involvement by strengthening their skills, abilities and leadership in capacity-building activities. The community development approach also shaped the participation methods that were used in the engagement process of CHCs. However, key informants also described the challenges of applying this approach, influenced by the cultural values of some groups, which shaped their willingness and motivation to participate. This study provides further insight into the approach, strategies and methods used in the engagement process to enable the participation of marginalized populations, which may be transferable to other health services settings. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Overview of NASA Langley's Systems Analysis Capabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavanaugh, Stephen; Kumar, Ajay; Brewer, Laura; Kimmel, Bill; Korte, John; Moul, Tom

2006-01-01

The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) has been in the systems analysis business line supporting National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aeronautics, exploration, space operations and science since the 1960 s. Our current organization structure is shown in Figure 1. SACD mission can be summed up in the following statements: 1. We conduct advanced concepts for Agency decision makers and programs. 2. We provide aerospace systems analysis products such as mission architectures, advanced system concepts, system and technology trades, life cycle cost and risk analysis, system integration and pre-decisional sensitive information. 3. Our work enables informed technical, programmatic and budgetary decisions. SACD has a complement of 114 government employees and approximately 50 on-site contractors which is equally split between supporting aeronautics and exploration. SACD strives for technical excellence and creditability of the systems analysis products delivered to its customers. The Directorate office is continuously building market intelligence and working with other NASA centers and external partners to expand our business base. The Branches strive for technical excellence and credibility of our systems analysis products by seeking out existing and new partnerships that are critical for successful systems analysis. The Directorates long term goal is to grow the amount of science systems analysis business base.

Developing and implementing a heart failure data mart for research and quality improvement.

PubMed

Abu-Rish Blakeney, Erin; Wolpin, Seth; Lavallee, Danielle C; Dardas, Todd; Cheng, Richard; Zierler, Brenda

2018-04-19

The purpose of this project was to build and formatively evaluate a near-real time heart failure (HF) data mart. Heart Failure (HF) is a leading cause of hospital readmissions. Increased efforts to use data meaningfully may enable healthcare organizations to better evaluate effectiveness of care pathways and quality improvements, and to prospectively identify risk among HF patients. We followed a modified version of the Systems Development Life Cycle: 1) Conceptualization, 2) Requirements Analysis, 3) Iterative Development, and 4) Application Release. This foundational work reflects the first of a two-phase project. Phase two (in process) involves the implementation and evaluation of predictive analytics for clinical decision support. We engaged stakeholders to build working definitions and established automated processes for creating an HF data mart containing actionable information for diverse audiences. As of December 2017, the data mart contains information from over 175,000 distinct patients and >100 variables from each of their nearly 300,000 visits. The HF data mart will be used to enhance care, assist in clinical decision-making, and improve overall quality of care. This model holds the potential to be scaled and generalized beyond the initial focus and setting.

Temporal lobe epilepsy surgery: what do patients want to know?

PubMed

Choi, Hyunmi; Pargeon, Kim; Bausell, Rebecca; Wong, John B; Mendiratta, Anil; Bakken, Suzanne

2011-11-01

Patients with pharmacoresistant temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) contemplating brain surgery must make a complex treatment decision involving trade-offs. Patient decision aids, containing information on the risks and benefits of treatment interventions, increase patient knowledge and facilitate shared decision making between patients and physicians. We conducted five focus groups to describe the information patients need to make informed decisions about TLE surgery. Twenty patients who had undergone TLE surgery described the information used in their decision-making process, and evaluated the potential for a patient decision aid to assist other patients who are considering surgery. Thematic analysis revealed information needs that were both experiential (i.e., learning about other patients' experiences through testimonials) and factual (i.e., individualized statistical information). Patients also made suggestions on how this information should be delivered to patients. These data will accelerate the development of a patient decision aid designed to assist TLE patients in their decision making about epilepsy surgery. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rejection or selection: influence of framing in investment decisions.

PubMed

Cheng, Pi-Yueh; Chiou, Wen-Bin

2010-02-01

According to prospect theory, reflection effects result in preferences for risk-averse choices in gain situations and risk-seeking choices in loss situations. However, relevant literature in regard to decision making has suggested that positive information receives more weight in a selection task, whereas negative information receives more weight in a rejection task. The present study examined whether the nature of a decision task (selection vs rejection) would moderate the reflection effects. Undergraduates (47 men, 49 women; M age = 20.5 yr., SD = 1.1), selected according to specific screening criteria, participated in an experimental study. Typical reflection effects were observed in both selection and rejection task conditions. More importantly, negative information (i.e., the information about probable loss in risky choice of gain situations and the information about certain loss in cautious choice of loss situations) provided in the context of a rejection task received more weight and resulted in more frequent endorsements of the cautious choice in gain situations and of the risky choice in loss situations. Hence, the findings suggest that a decision context characterized by rejection may expand the reflection effects and thereby provide important information about situations in which investment decisions occur in a context characterized by rejection.

CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

Earth Observations to Assess Impact of Hurricane Katrina on John C. Stennis Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graham, William D.; Ross, Kenton W.

2007-01-01

The peril from hurricanes to Space Operations Centers is real and is forecast to continue; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma of 2005 and Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne of 2004 are sufficient motivation for NASA to develop a multi-Center plan for preparedness and response. As was demonstrated at SSC (Stennis Space Center) in response to Hurricane Katrina, NASA Centers are efficiently activated as local command centers, playing host to Federal and State agencies and first responders to coordinate and provide evacuation, relocation, response, and recovery activities. Remote sensing decision support provides critical insight for managing NASA infrastructure and for assisting Center decision makers. Managers require geospatial information to manage the federal city. Immediately following Katrina, SSC s power and network connections were disabled, hardware was inoperative, technical staff was displaced and/or out of contact, and graphical decision support tools were non-existent or less than fully effective. Despite this circumstance, SSC EOC (Emergency Operations Center) implemented response operations to assess damage and to activate recovery plans. To assist Center Managers, the NASA ASP (Applied Sciences Program) made its archive of high-resolution data over the site available. In the weeks and months after the immediate crisis, NASA supplemented this data with high-resolution, post-Katrina imagery over SSC and much of the affected coastal areas. Much of the high-resolution imagery was made available through the Department of Defense Clear View contract and was distributed through U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science "Hurricane Katrina Disaster Response" Web site. By integrating multiple image data types with other information sources, ASP applied an all-source solutions approach to develop decision support tools that enabled managers to respond to critical issues, such as expedient access to infrastructure and deployment of resources, provision of temporary shelter, logistical control of critical supplies, and the mobilization and coordination of assets from ground crews to aircraft/airspace management. Furthermore, ASP developed information products that illustrate risks to SSC's infrastructure from surge, inundation, and flood. Current plans include developing wind-risk prototype products for refinement and adoption into EOC plans.

Big data and visual analytics in anaesthesia and health care.

PubMed

Simpao, A F; Ahumada, L M; Rehman, M A

2015-09-01

Advances in computer technology, patient monitoring systems, and electronic health record systems have enabled rapid accumulation of patient data in electronic form (i.e. big data). Organizations such as the Anesthesia Quality Institute and Multicenter Perioperative Outcomes Group have spearheaded large-scale efforts to collect anaesthesia big data for outcomes research and quality improvement. Analytics--the systematic use of data combined with quantitative and qualitative analysis to make decisions--can be applied to big data for quality and performance improvements, such as predictive risk assessment, clinical decision support, and resource management. Visual analytics is the science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces, and it can facilitate performance of cognitive activities involving big data. Ongoing integration of big data and analytics within anaesthesia and health care will increase demand for anaesthesia professionals who are well versed in both the medical and the information sciences. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Overdue choices: how information and role in decision-making influence women's preferences for induction for prolonged pregnancy.

PubMed

Stevens, Gabrielle; Miller, Yvette D

2012-09-01

Enabling women to make informed decisions is a crucial component of consumer-focused maternity care. Current evidence suggests that health care practitioners' communication of care options may not facilitate patient involvement in decision-making. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of specific variations in health caregiver communication on women's preferences for induction of labor for prolonged pregnancy. A convenience sample of 595 female participants read a hypothetical scenario in which an obstetrician discusses induction of labor with a pregnant woman. Information provided on induction and the degree of encouragement for the woman's involvement in decision-making was manipulated to create four experimental conditions. Participants indicated preference with respect to induction, their perceptions of the quality of information received, and other potential moderating factors. Participants who received information that was directive in favor of medical intervention were significantly more likely to prefer induction than those given nondirective information. No effect of level of involvement in decision-making was found. Participants' general trust in doctors moderated the relationship between health caregiver communication and preferences for induction, such that the influence of information provided on preferences for induction differed across levels of involvement in decision-making for women with a low trust in doctors, but not for those with high trust. Many women were not aware of the level of information required to make an informed decision. Our findings highlight the potential value of strategies such as patient decision aids and health care professional education to improve the quality of information available to women and their capacity for informed decision-making during pregnancy and birth. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roux, Izak Johannes, III

Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

Towards more accurate life cycle risk management through integration of DDP and PRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Paulos, Todd; Meshkat, Leila; Feather, Martin

2003-01-01

The focus of this paper is on the integration of PRA and DDP. The intent is twofold: to extend risk-based decision though more of the lifecycle, and to lead to improved risk modeling (hence better informed decision making) wherever it is applied, most especially in the early phases as designs begin to mature.

The role of noise in self-organized decision making by the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum.

PubMed

Meyer, Bernd; Ansorge, Cedrick; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-01-01

Self-organized mechanisms are frequently encountered in nature and known to achieve flexible, adaptive control and decision-making. Noise plays a crucial role in such systems: It can enable a self-organized system to reliably adapt to short-term changes in the environment while maintaining a generally stable behavior. This is fundamental in biological systems because they must strike a delicate balance between stable and flexible behavior. In the present paper we analyse the role of noise in the decision-making of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, an important model species for the investigation of computational abilities in simple organisms. We propose a simple biological experiment to investigate the reaction of P. polycephalum to time-variant risk factors and present a stochastic extension of an established mathematical model for P. polycephalum to analyze this experiment. It predicts that-due to the mechanism of stochastic resonance-noise can enable P. polycephalum to correctly assess time-variant risk factors, while the corresponding noise-free system fails to do so. Beyond the study of P. polycephalum we demonstrate that the influence of noise on self-organized decision-making is not tied to a specific organism. Rather it is a general property of the underlying process dynamics, which appears to be universal across a wide range of systems. Our study thus provides further evidence that stochastic resonance is a fundamental component of the decision-making in self-organized macroscopic and microscopic groups and organisms.

The role of noise in self-organized decision making by the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum

PubMed Central

Ansorge, Cedrick; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-01-01

Self-organized mechanisms are frequently encountered in nature and known to achieve flexible, adaptive control and decision-making. Noise plays a crucial role in such systems: It can enable a self-organized system to reliably adapt to short-term changes in the environment while maintaining a generally stable behavior. This is fundamental in biological systems because they must strike a delicate balance between stable and flexible behavior. In the present paper we analyse the role of noise in the decision-making of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, an important model species for the investigation of computational abilities in simple organisms. We propose a simple biological experiment to investigate the reaction of P. polycephalum to time-variant risk factors and present a stochastic extension of an established mathematical model for P. polycephalum to analyze this experiment. It predicts that—due to the mechanism of stochastic resonance—noise can enable P. polycephalum to correctly assess time-variant risk factors, while the corresponding noise-free system fails to do so. Beyond the study of P. polycephalum we demonstrate that the influence of noise on self-organized decision-making is not tied to a specific organism. Rather it is a general property of the underlying process dynamics, which appears to be universal across a wide range of systems. Our study thus provides further evidence that stochastic resonance is a fundamental component of the decision-making in self-organized macroscopic and microscopic groups and organisms. PMID:28355213

Managing Information in Law Firms: Changes and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evans, Nina; Price, James

2017-01-01

Introduction. Data, information and knowledge together constitute a vital business asset for every organization that enables every business activity, every business process and every business decision. The global legal industry is facing unprecedented change, which inevitably creates challenges for individual law firms. These global changes affect…

Tools for the Assessment of Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pappas, Marjorie L.

2007-01-01

Assessment tools enable both learning and assessing. They also give library media specialists snapshots of evidence that demonstrates student understanding of the Information Literacy Standards. Over time the evidence provide a more complete picture of learners' ability to gather, evaluate, and use information to solve problems, make decisions,…

Supporting tribal agriculture and natural resources in a changing climate working group

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created in 2014 to deliver science-based, region-specific information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Our stakeholders include agricultural and natural resource managers (i.e. farmers, ranchers, forest land mana...

Information needs, acceptability of risk, trust, and reliance: the case of national predictive services customers

Treesearch

Patricia L. Winter; Heidi Bigler-Cole

2010-01-01

Making complex risk-related decisions involves a degree of uncertainty. How that uncertainty is addressed or presented in reports or data tables can be tailored to meet information users’ needs and preferences. Involving the recipients of risk-related information in the design of information to be delivered (including the types of information delivered, format, and...

Information needs, acceptability of risk, trust, and reliance: The case of National Predictive Services customers

Treesearch

Patricia L. Winter; Heidi Bigler-Cole

2010-01-01

Making complex risk-related decisions involves a degree of uncertainty. How that uncertainty is addressed or presented in reports or data tables can be tailored to meet information users’ needs and preferences. Involving the recipients of risk-related information in the design of information to be delivered (including the types of information delivered, format, and...

A decision support system for map projections of small scale data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finn, Michael P.; Usery, E. Lynn; Posch, Stephan T.; Seong, Jeong Chang

2004-01-01

The use of commercial geographic information system software to process large raster datasets of terrain elevation, population, land cover, vegetation, soils, temperature, and rainfall requires both projection from spherical coordinates to plane coordinate systems and transformation from one plane system to another. Decision support systems deliver information resulting in knowledge that assists in policies, priorities, or processes. This paper presents an approach to handling the problems of raster dataset projection and transformation through the development of a Web-enabled decision support system to aid users of transformation processes with the selection of appropriate map projections based on data type, areal extent, location, and preservation properties.

Technical Assistance Plan (TAP)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A Technical Assistance Plan (TAP) enables community groups to retain the services of an independent technical advisor and to provide resources for a community group to help inform other community members about site decisions.

Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions.

PubMed

Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong

2017-06-01

For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

'Scarier than another storm': values at risk in the mapping and insuring of US floodplains.

PubMed

Elliott, Rebecca

2018-05-08

How do people respond to the ways in which insurance mediates environmental risks? Socio-cultural risk research has characterized and analyzed the experiential dimension of risk, but has yet to focus on insurance, which is a key institution shaping how people understand and relate to risk. Insurance not only assesses and communicates risk; it also economizes it, making the problem on the ground not just one of risk, but also of value. This article addresses these issues with an investigation of the social life of the flood insurance rate map, the central technology of the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), as it grafts a new landscape of 'value at risk' onto the physical and social world of New York City in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Like other risk technologies, ubiquitous in modern societies as decision-making and planning tools, the map disseminates information about value and risk in order to tame uncertainty and enable prudent action oriented toward the future. However, drawing together interview, ethnographic, and documentary data, I find that for its users on the ground, the map does not simply measure 'value at risk' in ways that produce clear strategies for protecting property values from flooding. Instead, it puts values-beyond simply the financial worth of places-at risk, as well as implicates past, present, and future risks beyond simply flooding. By informing and enlarging the stakes of what needs protecting, and from what, I argue that plural and interacting 'values at risk' shape how people live with and respond to environmental risks that are mediated by insurance technologies. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2018.

Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

2016-04-01

Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Knowledge and Attitudes Regarding Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT) and Preferences for Risk Information among High School Students in Sweden.

PubMed

Georgsson, Susanne; Sahlin, Ellika; Iwarsson, Moa; Nordenskjöld, Magnus; Gustavsson, Peter; Iwarsson, Erik

2017-06-01

Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) was recently introduced for prenatal testing of genetic disorders. Cell-free fetal DNA is present in maternal blood during pregnancy and enables detection of fetal chromosome aberrations in a maternal blood sample. The public perspective to this new, simple method has not been illuminated. The views of young people (i.e. future parents) are important to develop suitable counseling strategies regarding prenatal testing. The aim was to explore Swedish high school students' attitudes, knowledge and preferences regarding NIPT. A questionnaire was completed by 305 students recruited from one high school in Stockholm, November and December 2014. Most students (80 %) considered prenatal testing as good. The majority (65 %) was positive or very positive towards NIPT and 62 % stated that they potentially would like to undergo the test if they or their partner was pregnant. The vast majority (94 %) requested further information about NIPT. Most students (61 %) preferred verbal information, whereas 20 % preferred information via the Internet. The majority of the high school students was positive towards prenatal testing and most was positive towards NIPT. Further, information was requested by the vast majority before making a decision about NIPT. Most of the students preferred verbal information and to a lesser extent information via the Internet. The attitudes, knowledge and preferences for risk information concerning NIPT in young adults are important, in order to increase knowledge on how to educate and inform future parents.

Information display: the weak link for NCW

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilger, Mike

2006-05-01

The Global Information Grid (GIG) enables the dissemination of real-time data from any sensor/source as well as the distribution of that data immediately to recipients across the globe, resulting in better, faster, and more accurate decisions, reduced operational risk, and a more competitive war-fighting advantage. As a major component of Network Centric Warfare (NCW), the GIG seeks to provide the integrated information infrastructure necessary to connect the robust data streams from ConstellationNet, FORCENet, and LandWarNet to allow Joint Forces to move beyond Situational Awareness and into Situational Understanding. NCW will provide the Joint Forces a common situational understanding, a common operating picture, and any and all information necessary for rapid decision-making. However, with the exception of the 1994 introduction of the Military Standard 2525 "Common Warfighting Symbology," there has been no notable improvement in our ability to display information for accurate and rapid understanding. In fact, one of the notable problems associated with NCW is how to process the massive amount of newly integrated data being thrown at the warfighter: a significant human-machine interface challenge. The solution; a graphical language called GIFIC (Graphical Interface for Information Cognition) that can display thousands of data points simultaneously. Coupled with the new generation COP displays, GIFIC provides for the tremendous amounts of information-display required for effective NCW battlespace awareness requirements, offering instant insight into joint operations, tactical situations, and targeting necessities. GIFIC provides the next level of information-display necessary for a successful NCW, resulting in agile, high-performance, and highly competitive warfighters.

Decision making in childbirth: the influence of traditional structures in a Ghanaian village.

PubMed

Jansen, I

2006-03-01

The regional health administration of the Brong-Ahafo Region in Ghana identified that although informed about the advantages of both aspects of care, pregnant women made use of antenatal services but not of the supervised delivery. Quantitative studies have identified economic factors that influence the decisions of pregnant women. To describe and understand the traditional structures of childbirth in Kwame Danso/Ghana and to explore why the pregnant women do not make use of supervised deliveries in the modern institutions. A mini-ethnographic study, using participant observation and ethnographic interviews. Cultural and social factors have a significant influence on the decisions related to childbirth. One of the most important factors identified was that the responsible persons for decisions related to a delivery were the older female relatives, rather than the mothers themselves. Older females used rational judgements to weigh up the possibilities of risks, interests and advantages related to their cultural, spiritual and social system. Other factors were staff behaviour that was characterized as unfriendly and lacking for respect as to the living conditions and thinking of the pregnant women in the village. Ethnographic research provided an understanding of traditional structures that have an influence on the decisions and behaviour of the community related to childbirth. Appreciation of these structures enabled health promotion and structured health services to be delivered in a more culturally appropriate way.

The patient's right to know--a comparative law perspective.

PubMed

Giesen, D

1993-01-01

Since every person has the right to determine what will be done to his or her body, he or she has the right to decide whether or not to undergo medical treatment. If this decision is to be more than a pure formality, the patient needs to be fully informed of what that decision entails, and so has a right to know of the risks involved in the treatment he or she is considering. A physician has a corresponding duty to impart the information which the patient needs to enable him or her to reach such an informed decision. This article traces developments in common-law and civil law jurisdictions and considers the extent to which they protect the patient's right to know. The comparative law analysis reveals that English law has tended to fall behind both its common-law relatives and its European neighbours in the amount of protection it affords to this fundamental right because it has allowed liability to be determined by a negligence standard which treats a physician's conformity with the practice of a body of medical opinion as conclusive evidence that he or she has discharged his or her duty. The article warns of a further threat to the patient's right to make an informed decision which has arisen in other common-law jurisdictions in the guise of the so-called 'reasonable patient', whose abstract nature means that his or her presence in standard of care and causation questions brings with it an evidential void which tends to be filled by the evidence of medical experts so that a physician may, once again, be relieved from liability even though he or she has failed to disclose information that the patient before him or her needed to know for the purposes of a treatment decision. The conclusion to be drawn is that only where the standard of care is based on the needs of each patient rather than the opinion of a body of doctors, and only where the focus is kept on the actual patient rather than the hypothetical 'reasonable patient' is the patient's right to know properly protected.

Print information to inform decisions about mammography screening participation in 16 countries with population-based programs.

PubMed

Zapka, Jane G; Geller, Berta M; Bulliard, Jean-Luc; Fracheboud, Jacques; Sancho-Garnier, Helene; Ballard-Barbash, Rachel

2006-10-01

To profile and compare the content and presentation of written communications related to informed decision-making about mammography. Materials from 16 screening programs organized at the national or regional level were analyzed according to five major information domains suggested by the international literature. A majority of countries provided information on the program (interval, cost and quality). There was considerable variability in comprehensiveness of elements in the domains, e.g., test characteristics (false positive/negative) and pros and cons of screening. The majority noted the likelihood of recall for further tests, few commented on the risks of additional tests or finding unimportant tumors. The audit also found variation in presentation (words and pictures). Presentation of comprehensive, but balanced information on screening benefits and risks is complex and daunting. Issues such as framing effects, coupled with debate about screening efficacy are challenging to the design of effective information tools. The objective of increasing screening prevalence at the population level must be balanced with objectively presenting complete and clear information. Additional research is needed on how information (and mode of presentation) impact screening decisions. Public health officials need to articulate their objectives and review written communication according to important decision-making domains.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wellman, Dawn M.; Freshley, Mark D.; Truex, Michael J.

Current requirements for site remediation and closure are standards-based and are often overly conservative, costly, and in some cases, technically impractical to achieve. Use of risk-informed alternate endpoints provide a means to achieve remediation goals that are permitted by regulations and are protective of human health and the environment. Alternate endpoints enable establishing a path for cleanup that may include intermediate remedial milestones and transition points and/or regulatory alternatives to standards-based remediation. A framework is presented that is centered around developing and refining conceptual models in conjunction with assessing risks and potential endpoints as part of a system-based assessment thatmore » integrates site data with scientific understanding of processes that control the distribution and transport of contaminants in the subsurface and pathways to receptors. This system based assessment and subsequent implementation of the remediation strategy with appropriate monitoring are targeted at providing a holistic approach to addressing risks to human health and the environment. This holistic approach also enables effective predictive analysis of contaminant behavior to provide defensible criteria and data for making long-term decisions. Developing and implementing an alternate endpoint-based approach for remediation and waste site closure presents a number of challenges and opportunities. Categories of these challenges include scientific and technical, regulatory, institutional, and budget and resource allocation issues. Opportunities exist for developing and implementing systems-based approaches with respect to supportive characterization, monitoring, predictive modeling, and remediation approaches.« less

Systems Engineering for Contingency Basing

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-30

partner practices.  Reduced Environmental , Safety and Occupational Health (ESOH) Risks. The processes and tools need to enable the measurement...62 Figure 43: Fuel environmental considerations decision hierarchy .................................. 64 Figure 44: A Medical facility...66 Figure 46: Screen Shot of CB-Decider, a web-based collaborative modeling environment

Application of the predicted heat strain model in development of localized, threshold-based heat stress management guidelines for the construction industry.

PubMed

Rowlinson, Steve; Jia, Yunyan Andrea

2014-04-01

Existing heat stress risk management guidelines recommended by international standards are not practical for the construction industry which needs site supervision staff to make instant managerial decisions to mitigate heat risks. The ability of the predicted heat strain (PHS) model [ISO 7933 (2004). Ergonomics of the thermal environment analytical determination and interpretation of heat stress using calculation of the predicted heat strain. Geneva: International Standard Organisation] to predict maximum allowable exposure time (D lim) has now enabled development of localized, action-triggering and threshold-based guidelines for implementation by lay frontline staff on construction sites. This article presents a protocol for development of two heat stress management tools by applying the PHS model to its full potential. One of the tools is developed to facilitate managerial decisions on an optimized work-rest regimen for paced work. The other tool is developed to enable workers' self-regulation during self-paced work.

Community Stress, Psychosocial Hazards, and EPA Decision-Making in Communities Impacted by Chronic Technological Disasters

PubMed Central

Coles, Charlton J.

2011-01-01

Psychosocial stress has emerged as an important consideration in managing environmental health risks. Stress has adverse impacts on health and may interact with environmental hazards to increase health risk. This article's primary objective was to explore psychosocial stress related to environmental contamination. We hypothesized that knowledge about stress should be used in conjunction with chemical risk assessment to inform environmental risk management decisions. Knowledge of psychosocial stress at contaminated sites began by exploring the relationships among social capital, collective efficacy, and contamination at the community level. We discussed stress at the family and individual levels, focusing on stress proliferation, available resources, and coping styles and mechanisms. We then made recommendations on how to improve the use of information on psychosocial stress in environmental decision-making, particularly in communities facing chronic technological disasters. PMID:21836109

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

Environmental Biosciences Program Quarterly Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2007-07-31

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the DOE. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Environmental Biosciences Program Report for Year 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2007-04-30

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems. Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the DOE. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Environmental Biosciences Report for Year 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2007-10-31

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the DOE. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Environmental Biosciences Quarterly Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2007-01-31

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems. Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the DOE. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Gathering Real World Evidence with Cluster Analysis for Clinical Decision Support.

PubMed

Xia, Eryu; Liu, Haifeng; Li, Jing; Mei, Jing; Li, Xuejun; Xu, Enliang; Li, Xiang; Hu, Gang; Xie, Guotong; Xu, Meilin

2017-01-01

Clinical decision support systems are information technology systems that assist clinical decision-making tasks, which have been shown to enhance clinical performance. Cluster analysis, which groups similar patients together, aims to separate patient cases into phenotypically heterogenous groups and defining therapeutically homogeneous patient subclasses. Useful as it is, the application of cluster analysis in clinical decision support systems is less reported. Here, we describe the usage of cluster analysis in clinical decision support systems, by first dividing patient cases into similar groups and then providing diagnosis or treatment suggestions based on the group profiles. This integration provides data for clinical decisions and compiles a wide range of clinical practices to inform the performance of individual clinicians. We also include an example usage of the system under the scenario of blood lipid management in type 2 diabetes. These efforts represent a step toward promoting patient-centered care and enabling precision medicine.

Testosterone, Cortisol and Financial Risk-Taking

PubMed Central

Herbert, Joe

2018-01-01

Both testosterone and cortisol have major actions on financial decision-making closely related to their primary biological functions, reproductive success and response to stress, respectively. Financial risk-taking represents a particular example of strategic decisions made in the context of choice under conditions of uncertainty. Such decisions have multiple components, and this article considers how much we know of how either hormone affects risk-appetite, reward value, information processing and estimation of the costs and benefits of potential success or failure, both personal and social. It also considers how far we can map these actions on neural mechanisms underlying risk appetite and decision-making, with particular reference to areas of the brain concerned in either cognitive or emotional functions. PMID:29867399

Deciding to Reveal Sexual Information and Sexuality Education in Mother-Daughter Relationships

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coffelt, Tina A.

2017-01-01

Communication privacy management theory informed this study of nine mothers and their 18- or 19-year-old daughters who were interviewed to understand privacy rule foundations that influence their decisions to reveal or conceal sexual information. Findings reveal the salience of motivation and the risk-benefit ratio when making decisions about…

Measuring and managing risk improves strategic financial planning.

PubMed

Kleinmuntz, D N; Kleinmuntz, C E; Stephen, R G; Nordlund, D S

1999-06-01

Strategic financial risk assessment is a practical technique that can enable healthcare strategic decision makers to perform quantitative analyses of the financial risks associated with a given strategic initiative. The technique comprises six steps: (1) list risk factors that might significantly influence the outcomes, (2) establish best-guess estimates for assumptions regarding how each risk factor will affect its financial outcomes, (3) identify risk factors that are likely to have the greatest impact, (4) assign probabilities to assumptions, (5) determine potential scenarios associated with combined assumptions, and (6) determine the probability-weighted average of the potential scenarios.

Exaggerated risk: prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice.

PubMed

Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Ayton, Peter; Dent, John; Chater, Nick

2009-11-01

In 5 experiments, we studied precautionary decisions in which participants decided whether or not to buy insurance with specified cost against an undesirable event with specified probability and cost. We compared the risks taken for precautionary decisions with those taken for equivalent monetary gambles. Fitting these data to Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) prospect theory, we found that the weighting function required to model precautionary decisions differed from that required for monetary gambles. This result indicates a failure of the descriptive invariance axiom of expected utility theory. For precautionary decisions, people overweighted small, medium-sized, and moderately large probabilities-they exaggerated risks. This effect is not anticipated by prospect theory or experience-based decision research (Hertwig, Barron, Weber, & Erev, 2004). We found evidence that exaggerated risk is caused by the accessibility of events in memory: The weighting function varies as a function of the accessibility of events. This suggests that people's experiences of events leak into decisions even when risk information is explicitly provided. Our findings highlight a need to investigate how variation in decision content produces variation in preferences for risk.

Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

PubMed

McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

2011-06-01

Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and numerical simulations, can provide more accurate forecasts of possible losses and allow for a more precise evaluation of the potential risks of the consequences of the ESWE for the vulnerable industries, such as electric power distribution systems, which have been shown to experience some of the most significant losses caused by ESWE.

DECISION-MAKING USING EXISTING DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Decision-makers need information on cumulative and aggregate stressors as well as clear information on where problems are likely to occur in the future in order to prioritize risk management actions. The most prevasive and difficult to assess changes are the result of regional-s...

Leadership in ICT Integration and Its Impact on the Haitian Economy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louis-Jacques, Carmel G.

2013-01-01

As attention increasingly focuses on the role of information communication technology (ICT) in augmenting the efficiency of institutions, researchers have postulated that implementation of effective ICT enables decision makers to explore opportunities and maximize benefits. Review of current literature revealed a lack of information on how Haitian…

Composeable FORCEnet Command and Control: The Key to Energizing the Global Information Grid to Enable Superior Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

Women, Messages and Media: Understanding Human Communication Introduction: One of the most critical aspects of transforming information...and Porter 1982) Wilbur Schramm and William Porter, Men, Women, Messages and Media: Understanding Human Communication (New York, Harper and Rowe

Adaptation to climate variability: The role of the USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Southern Plains USDA Climate Hub was established in 2014 in El Reno, Oklahoma to develop and deliver science-based, information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource land managers that enable climate-informed decision-making, and to provide access to assistance to implement those...

Situationally-Sensitive Knowledge Translation and Relational Decision Making in Hyperacute Stroke: A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Murtagh, Madeleine J.; Burges Watson, Duika L.; Jenkings, K. Neil; Lie, Mabel L. S.; Mackintosh, Joan E.; Ford, Gary A.; Thomson, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Stroke is a leading cause of disability. Early treatment of acute ischaemic stroke with rtPA reduces the risk of longer term dependency but carries an increased risk of causing immediate bleeding complications. To understand the challenges of knowledge translation and decision making about treatment with rtPA in hyperacute stroke and hence to inform development of appropriate decision support we interviewed patients, their family and health professionals. The emergency setting and the symptomatic effects of hyper-acute stroke shaped the form, content and manner of knowledge translation to support decision making. Decision making about rtPA in hyperacute stroke presented three conundrums for patients, family and clinicians. 1) How to allow time for reflection in a severely time-limited setting. 2) How to facilitate knowledge translation regarding important treatment risks and benefits when patient and family capacity is blunted by the effects and shock of stroke. 3) How to ensure patient and family views are taken into account when the situation produces reliance on the expertise of clinicians. Strategies adopted to meet these conundrums were fourfold: face to face communication; shaping decisions; incremental provision of information; and communication tailored to the individual patient. Relational forms of interaction were understood to engender trust and allay anxiety. Shaping decisions with patients was understood as an expression of confidence by clinicians that helped alleviate anxiety and offered hope and reassurance to patients and their family experiencing the shock of the stroke event. Neutral presentations of information and treatment options promoted uncertainty and contributed to anxiety. ‘Drip feeding’ information created moments for reflection: clinicians literally made time. Tailoring information to the particular patient and family situation allowed clinicians to account for social and emotional contexts. The principal responses to the challenges of decision making about rtPA in hyperacute stroke were relational decision support and situationally-sensitive knowledge translation. PMID:22675477

Situationally-sensitive knowledge translation and relational decision making in hyperacute stroke: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Murtagh, Madeleine J; Burges Watson, Duika L; Jenkings, K Neil; Lie, Mabel L S; Mackintosh, Joan E; Ford, Gary A; Thomson, Richard G

2012-01-01

Stroke is a leading cause of disability. Early treatment of acute ischaemic stroke with rtPA reduces the risk of longer term dependency but carries an increased risk of causing immediate bleeding complications. To understand the challenges of knowledge translation and decision making about treatment with rtPA in hyperacute stroke and hence to inform development of appropriate decision support we interviewed patients, their family and health professionals. The emergency setting and the symptomatic effects of hyper-acute stroke shaped the form, content and manner of knowledge translation to support decision making. Decision making about rtPA in hyperacute stroke presented three conundrums for patients, family and clinicians. 1) How to allow time for reflection in a severely time-limited setting. 2) How to facilitate knowledge translation regarding important treatment risks and benefits when patient and family capacity is blunted by the effects and shock of stroke. 3) How to ensure patient and family views are taken into account when the situation produces reliance on the expertise of clinicians. Strategies adopted to meet these conundrums were fourfold: face to face communication; shaping decisions; incremental provision of information; and communication tailored to the individual patient. Relational forms of interaction were understood to engender trust and allay anxiety. Shaping decisions with patients was understood as an expression of confidence by clinicians that helped alleviate anxiety and offered hope and reassurance to patients and their family experiencing the shock of the stroke event. Neutral presentations of information and treatment options promoted uncertainty and contributed to anxiety. 'Drip feeding' information created moments for reflection: clinicians literally made time. Tailoring information to the particular patient and family situation allowed clinicians to account for social and emotional contexts. The principal responses to the challenges of decision making about rtPA in hyperacute stroke were relational decision support and situationally-sensitive knowledge translation.

The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

2016-04-01

Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even with perfect information.

What Do Trainers Need to Know to Train Higher-Order Thinking Skills

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-11-01

decision - making , perceptual processing , and information processing (U.S. Department of the Army, TRADOC, 2011; 2014). Current Army training...counteract this risk, we may offload aspects of the evaluative process using techniques—like the Military Decision Making Process — that tend to frame... decision -makers collect information and the influences of internal and external factors on the

Venous thromboembolism: patient awareness and education in the pre-operative assessment clinic.

PubMed

Haymes, Adam

2016-04-01

Each year venous thromboembolism (VTE) causes up to 60,000 deaths in the UK, many resulting from hospital-acquired thromboses following elective surgery. National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines state that all elective surgical patients should receive verbal and written information pre-operatively regarding the risks of developing VTE. This audit assessed elective surgical patient's prior awareness of VTE and examined how effective targeted patient education during the pre-operative assessment is in increasing this awareness. A 13 point questionnaire designed to assess a pre-operative patient's understanding of topics relating to VTE was provided to consecutive patients identified as being at risk of developing VTE at the end of their pre-operative assessment over a two-week period. A total of 68 questionnaires were completed. Provision of verbal and written information was poor (47 %, n = 32 and 47 %, n = 32 respectively). Despite this, 71 % (n = 48) of patients were aware of the consequences of developing VTE. Many patients correctly identified surgery (71 %, n = 48), immobility (71 %, n = 48) and being overweight (68 %, n = 46) as risk factors, but not dehydration (47 %, n = 32). Lack of awareness regarding personal methods to reduce the risk of developing a VTE post-operatively (24 %, n = 16) and potential side-effects of medical prophylaxis (32 %, n = 22) were also identified. Many patients already possess an awareness of VTE, however, specific knowledge regarding its risk factors and methods of prevention is lacking. Provision of targeted written and verbal educational information during the pre-operative assessment is an effective method of increasing a patient's awareness of these topics. Increased patient awareness may empower patients in their post-operative recovery and enable them to make more informed decisions regarding VTE prophylaxis options.

Caries risk assessment tool and prevention protocol for public health nurses in mother and child health centers, Israel.

PubMed

Natapov, Lena; Dekel-Markovich, Dan; Granit-Palmon, Hadas; Aflalo, Efrat; Zusman, Shlomo Paul

2018-01-01

Dental caries is the most prevalent chronic disease in children. Caries risk assessment tools enable the dentists, physicians, and nondental health care providers to assess the individual's risk. Intervention by nurses in primary care settings can contribute to the establishment of oral health habits and prevention of dental disease. In Israel, Mother and Child Health Centers provide free preventive services for pregnant women and children by public health nurses. A caries prevention program in health centers started in 2015. Nurses underwent special training regarding caries prevention. A customized Caries Risk Assessment tool and Prevention Protocol for nurses, based on the AAPD tool, was introduced. A two-step evaluation was conducted which included a questionnaire and in-depth phone interviews. Twenty-eight (out of 46) health centers returned a completed questionnaire. Most nurses believed that oral health preventive services should be incorporated into their daily work. In the in-depth phone interviews, nurses stated that the integration of the program into their busy daily schedule was realistic and appropriate. The lack of specific dental module for computer program was mentioned as an implementation difficulty. The wide use of our tool by nurses supports its simplicity and feasibility which enables quick calculation and informed decision making. The nurses readily embraced the tool and it became an integral part of their toolkit. We provide public health nurses with a caries risk assessment tool and prevention protocol thus integrating oral health into general health of infants and toddlers. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Communicating asset risk: how name recognition and the format of historic volatility information affect risk perception and investment decisions.

PubMed

Weber, Elke U; Siebenmorgen, Niklas; Weber, Martin

2005-06-01

An experiment examined how the type and presentation format of information about investment options affected investors' expectations about asset risk, returns, and volatility and how these expectations related to asset choice. Respondents were provided with the names of 16 domestic and foreign investment options, with 10-year historical return information for these options, or with both. Historical returns were presented either as a bar graph of returns per year or as a continuous density distribution. Provision of asset names allowed for the investigation of the mechanisms underlying the home bias in investment choice and other asset familiarity effects. Respondents provided their expectations of future returns, volatility, and expected risk, and indicated the options they would choose to invest in. Expected returns closely resembled historical expected values. Risk and volatility perceptions both varied significantly as a function of the type and format of information, but in different ways. Expected returns and perceived risk, not predicted volatility, predicted portfolio decisions.

The influence of physician recommendation on prostate-specific antigen screening.

PubMed

Pucheril, Daniel; Dalela, Deepansh; Sammon, Jesse; Sood, Akshay; Sun, Maxine; Trinh, Quoc-Dien; Menon, Mani; Abdollah, Firas

2015-10-01

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening is controversial, and little is known regarding a physician's effect on a patient's decision to undergo screening. This study's objective was to evaluate the effect of a patient's understanding of the risks and benefits of screening compared to the final recommendation of the provider on the patient's decision to undergo PSA screening. Using the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, men older than 55 years who did not have a history of prostate cancer/prostate "problem" and who reported a PSA test within the preceding year were considered to have undergone screening. The percentages of men informed and not informed of the risks and benefits of screening and the percentage men receiving recommendations for PSA screening from their provider were reported. Multivariable complex-sample logistic regression calculated the odds of undergoing screening. In all, 75% of men were informed of screening benefits; however, 32% were informed of screening risks. After being informed of both, 56% of men opted for PSA screening if the provider recommended it, compared with only 21% when not recommended. Men receiving a recommendation to undergo PSA testing had higher odds of undergoing screening (odds ratio [OR] = 4.98, 95% CI: 4.53-5.48) compared with those who were only informed about screening benefits (OR = 2.40, 95% CI: 2.18-2.65) or risks (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86-0.98). Significant limitations include recall and nonresponse bias. Patients' decision to undergo or forgo PSA screening is heavily influenced by the recommendation of their physician; it is imperative that physicians are cognizant of their biases and facilitate a shared decision-making process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

2009-04-01

Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling

PubMed Central

Rosa, M.; Carpaneto, J.; Priori, A.

2018-01-01

Abstract Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (<12-Hz) fluctuations preceding task onset. In particular, the amplitude of low-frequency LFP fluctuations carried significant information about future decisions. Decisions of patients not affected by gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff. PMID:29445770

The Effect of Knowledge of Online Security Risks on Consumer Decision Making in B2C e-Commerce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ping An

2010-01-01

This dissertation research studied how different degrees of knowledge of online security risks affect B2C (business-to-consumer) e-commerce consumer decision making. Online information security risks, such as identity theft, have increasingly become a major factor inhibiting the potential growth of e-commerce. On the other hand, e-commerce…

Evaluating child welfare policies with decision-analytic simulation models.

PubMed

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Bailey, Stephanie L; Hurlburt, Michael S; Zhang, Jinjin; Snowden, Lonnie R; Wulczyn, Fred; Landsverk, John; Horwitz, Sarah M

2012-11-01

The objective was to demonstrate decision-analytic modeling in support of Child Welfare policymakers considering implementing evidence-based interventions. Outcomes included permanency (e.g., adoptions) and stability (e.g., foster placement changes). Analyses of a randomized trial of KEEP-a foster parenting intervention-and NSCAW-1 estimated placement change rates and KEEP's effects. A microsimulation model generalized these findings to other Child Welfare systems. The model projected that KEEP could increase permanency and stability, identifying strategies targeting higher-risk children and geographical regions that achieve benefits efficiently. Decision-analytic models enable planners to gauge the value of potential implementations.

Risk Management and Intangibles: The Role of Information in Customer Acquisition and Evaluation of Intangibles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alirezazadeh, Pantea

2012-01-01

This dissertation consists of three separate essays shaping around decision making and risk management in the presence of intangibles. More specifically I study the risk management aspect of information acquisition and the role of information signaling in communicating the value of intangible assets. Intangible asset has proved to be a…

Experiences in Bridging the Gap between Science and Decision Making at NASA's GSFC Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kempler, Steven; Teng, Bill; Friedl, Lawrence; Lynnes, Chris; Leptoukh, Gregory

2008-01-01

Recognizing the significance of NASA remote sensing Earth science data in monitoring and better understanding our planet s natural environment, NASA has implemented the Decision Support Through Earth Science Research Results program (NASA ROSES solicitations). a) This successful program has yielded several monitoring, surveillance, and decision support systems through collaborations with benefiting organizations. b) The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has participated in this program on two projects (one complete, one ongoing), and has had opportune ad hoc collaborations gaining much experience in the formulation, management, development, and implementation of decision support systems utilizing NASA Earth science data. c) In addition, GES DISC s understanding of Earth science missions and resulting data and information, including data structures, data usability and interpretation, data interoperability, and information management systems, enables the GES DISC to identify challenges that come with bringing science data to decision makers. d) The purpose of this presentation is to share GES DISC decision support system project experiences in regards to system sustainability, required data quality (versus timeliness), data provider understanding of how decisions are made, and the data receivers willingness to use new types of information to make decisions, as well as other topics. In addition, defining metrics that really evaluate success will be exemplified.

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

Nanomaterial Categorization for Assessing Risk Potential to Faciliate Regulatory Decision-Making

EPA Science Inventory

For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) and nano-enabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regul...

Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Irem Y.; Barrientos, Francesca; Meshkat, Leila

2004-01-01

This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

Strategic analytics: towards fully embedding evidence in healthcare decision-making.

PubMed

Garay, Jason; Cartagena, Rosario; Esensoy, Ali Vahit; Handa, Kiren; Kane, Eli; Kaw, Neal; Sadat, Somayeh

2015-01-01

Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) has implemented multiple information technology solutions and collected health-system data to support its programs. There is now an opportunity to leverage these data and perform advanced end-to-end analytics that inform decisions around improving health-system performance. In 2014, CCO engaged in an extensive assessment of its current data capacity and capability, with the intent to drive increased use of data for evidence-based decision-making. The breadth and volume of data at CCO uniquely places the organization to contribute to not only system-wide operational reporting, but more advanced modelling of current and future state system management and planning. In 2012, CCO established a strategic analytics practice to assist the agency's programs contextualize and inform key business decisions and to provide support through innovative predictive analytics solutions. This paper describes the organizational structure, services and supporting operations that have enabled progress to date, and discusses the next steps towards the vision of embedding evidence fully into healthcare decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Longwoods Publishing.

Overview of USEPA's ORD Technical Outreach and Support Activities on Vapor Intrusion Impacts - 03/2008

EPA Science Inventory

The science of determining, characterizing and managing vapor intrusion risks is constantly evolving. Much remains to be done in assisting regulators, consultants and other decision-makers to make informed decisions in mitigating the problem and reducing these risks. ORD has been...

Sure I'm Sure: Prefrontal Oscillations Support Metacognitive Monitoring of Decision Making.

PubMed

Wokke, Martijn E; Cleeremans, Axel; Ridderinkhof, K Richard

2017-01-25

Successful decision making critically involves metacognitive processes such as monitoring and control of our decision process. Metacognition enables agents to modify ongoing behavior adaptively and determine what to do next in situations in which external feedback is not (immediately) available. Despite the importance of metacognition for many aspects of life, little is known about how our metacognitive system operates or about what kind of information is used for metacognitive (second-order) judgments. In particular, it remains an open question whether metacognitive judgments are based on the same information as first-order decisions. Here, we investigated the relationship between metacognitive performance and first-order task performance by recording EEG signals while participants were asked to make a "diagnosis" after seeing a sample of fictitious patient data (a complex pattern of colored moving dots of different sizes). To assess metacognitive performance, participants provided an estimate about the quality of their diagnosis on each trial. Results demonstrate that the information that contributes to first-order decisions differs from the information that supports metacognitive judgments. Further, time-frequency analyses of EEG signals reveal that metacognitive performance is associated specifically with prefrontal theta-band activity. Together, our findings are consistent with a hierarchical model of metacognition and suggest a crucial role for prefrontal oscillations in metacognitive performance. Monitoring and control of our decision process (metacognition) is a crucial aspect of adaptive decision making. Crucially, metacognitive skills enable us to adjust ongoing behavior and determine future decision making when immediate feedback is not available. In the present study, we constructed a "diagnosis task" that allowed us to assess in what way first-order task performance and metacognition are related to each other. Results demonstrate that the contribution of sensory evidence (size, color, and motion direction) differs between first- and second-order decision making. Further, our results indicate that metacognitive performance specifically is orchestrated by means of prefrontal theta oscillations. Together, our findings suggest a hierarchical model of metacognition. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/370781-09$15.00/0.

Physicians' perceptions of the impact of the EHR on the collection and retrieval of psychosocial information in outpatient diabetes care.

PubMed

Senteio, Charles; Veinot, Tiffany; Adler-Milstein, Julia; Richardson, Caroline

2018-05-01

Psychosocial information informs clinical decisions by providing crucial context for patients' barriers to recommended self-care; this is especially important in outpatient diabetes care because outcomes are largely dependent upon self-care behavior. Little is known about provider perceptions of use of psychosocial information. Further, while EHRs have dramatically changed how providers interact with patient health information, the EHRs' role in collection and retrieval of psychosocial information is not understood. We designed a qualitative study. We used semi-structured interviews to investigate physicians' (N = 17) perspectives on the impact of EHR for psychosocial information use for outpatient Type II diabetes care decisions. We selected the constant comparative method to analyze the data. Psychosocial information is perceived as dissimilar from other clinical information such as HbA1c and prescribed medications. Its narrative form conveys the patient's story, which elucidates barriers to following self-care recommendations. The narrative is abstract, and requires interpretation of patterns. Psychosocial information is also circumstantial; hence, the patients' context determines influence on self-care. Furthermore, EHRs can impair the collection of psychosocial information because the designs of EHR tools make it difficult to document, search for, and retrieve it. Templates do not enable users from collecting the patient's 'story', and using free text fields is time consuming. Providers therefore had low use of, and confidence in, the accuracy of psychosocial information in the EHR. Workflows and EHR tools should be re-designed to better support psychosocial information collection and retrieval. Tools should enable recording and summarization of the patient's story, and the rationale for treatment decisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Informed choice in direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) websites: a content analysis of benefits, risks, and limitations

PubMed Central

Singleton, Amanda; Erby, Lori Hamby; Foisie, Kathryn V.; Kaphingst, Kimberly

2012-01-01

An informed choice about health-related direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) requires knowledge of potential benefits, risks, and limitations. To understand the information that potential consumers of DTCGT services are exposed to on company websites, we conducted a content analysis of 23 health-related DTCGT websites. Results revealed that benefit statements outweighed risk and limitation statements 6 to 1. The most frequently described benefits were 1) disease prevention, 2) consumer education, 3) personalized medical recommendations, and 4) the ability to make health decisions. Thirty-five percent of websites also presented at least one risk of testing. Seventy-eight percent of websites mentioned at least one limitation of testing. Based on this information, potential consumers might get an inaccurate picture of genetic testing which could impact their ability to make an informed decision. Practices that enhance the presentation of balanced information on DTCGT company websites should be encouraged. PMID:22194036

Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

EPA ACTIVITIES TO PREPARE FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS INFORMATION

EPA Science Inventory

Genomics will have significant implications for risk assessment and regulatory decision making. Since 2002, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a number of cross-Agency activities to further prepare itself to receive,interpret and apply genomics information for risk assessment and regul...

The social nature of engineering and its implications for risk taking.

PubMed

Ross, Allison; Athanassoulis, Nafsika

2010-03-01

Making decisions with an, often significant, element of risk seems to be an integral part of many of the projects of the diverse profession of engineering. Whether it be decisions about the design of products, manufacturing processes, public works, or developing technological solutions to environmental, social and global problems, risk taking seems inherent to the profession. Despite this, little attention has been paid to the topic and specifically to how our understanding of engineering as a distinctive profession might affect how we should make decisions under risk. This paper seeks to remedy this, firstly by offering a nuanced account of risk and then by considering how specific claims about our understanding of engineering as a social profession, with corresponding social values and obligations, should inform how we make decisions about risk in this context.

The decision to adopt evidence-based and other innovative mental health practices: risky business?

PubMed

Panzano, Phyllis C; Roth, Dee

2006-08-01

A risk-based decision-making framework was used to examine the decision to adopt innovative mental health practices, including both evidence-based and other research-guided practices. Seventy-eight projects involving decisions to adopt one of four innovative mental health practices were the focus of this study. Key informants with direct knowledge about the adoption decision provided data for hypothesis testing. As predicted, the propensity to adopt an innovative practice-as measured by decision stage-was negatively related to the perceived risk of adopting the practice, positively related to expected capacity to manage risk, and positively related to an organization's past propensity to take risks. Further, perceived risk, anticipated resource availability, and exposure to field-based evidence explained a substantial part of what differentiated adopters from nonadopters. Finally, several features of innovations known to influence innovation adoption decisions were found to be related in expected ways to perceived risk, capacity to manage risk, and risk propensity. This research supports the view that the decision to adopt an innovative mental health practice is a decision made in consideration of risk. Contrary to popular views that early adopters of innovations are willing to take enormous risks, these data offer the novel idea that early adopters act because they see the risks associated with adopting as lower than their nonadopter counterparts, partly because the risks are seen as more manageable. Implications of results are discussed for organizations considering adoption of innovative health care practices and for state or local mental health authorities hoping for a higher level of adoption in their areas.

A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

2009-04-01

The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process. In the present paper we propose a novel methodology for supporting the priority setting in the assessment of such issues, beyond the typical "expected value" approach. Scientific contribution and management aspects are merged to create a simplified method for plan basin implementation, based on risk and economic analyses. However, the economic evaluation is not the sole criterion for flood-damage reduction plan selection. Among the different criteria that are relevant to the decision process, safety and quality of human life, economic damage, expenses related with the chosen measures and environmental issues should play a fundamental role on the decisions made by the authorities. Some numerical indices, taking in account administrative, technical, economical and risk aspects, are defined and are combined together in a mathematical formula that defines a Priority Index (PI). In particular, the priority index defines a ranking of priority interventions, thus allowing the formulation of the investment plan. The research is mainly focused on the technical factors of risk assessment, providing quantitative and qualitative estimates of possible alternatives, containing measures of the risk associated with those alternatives. Moreover, the issues of risk management are analyzed, in particular with respect to the role of decision making in the presence of risk information. However, a great effort is devoted to make this index easy to be formulated and effective to allow a clear and transparent comparison between the alternatives. Summarizing this document describes a major- steps for incorporation of risk analysis into the decision making process: framing of the problem in terms of risk analysis, application of appropriate tools and techniques to obtain quantified results, use of the quantified results in the choice of structural and non-structural measures. In order to prove the reliability of the proposed methodology and to show how risk-based information can be incorporated into a flood analysis process, its application to some middle italy river basins is presented. The methodology assessment is performed by comparing different scenarios and showing that the optimal decision stems from a feasibility evaluation.

Patients' Values in Clinical Decision-Making.

PubMed

Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Pachur, Thorsten; Giannakopoulos, Nikolaos Nikitas

2017-09-01

Shared decision-making involves the participation of patient and dental practitioner. Well-informed decision-making requires that both parties understand important concepts that may influence the decision. This fourth article in a series of 4 aims to discuss the importance of patients' values when a clinical decision is made. We report on how to incorporate important concepts for well-informed, shared decision-making. Here, we present patient values as an important issue, in addition to previously established topics such as the risk of bias of a study, cost-effectiveness of treatment approaches, and a comparison of therapeutic benefit with potential side effects. We provide 2 clinical examples and suggestions for a decision tree, based on the available evidence. The information reported in this article may improve the relationship between patient and dental practitioner, resulting in more well-informed clinical decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predation Risk Perception, Food Density and Conspecific Cues Shape Foraging Decisions in a Tropical Lizard

PubMed Central

Kolbe, Jason J.

2015-01-01

When foraging, animals can maximize their fitness if they are able to tailor their foraging decisions to current environmental conditions. When making foraging decisions, individuals need to assess the benefits of foraging while accounting for the potential risks of being captured by a predator. However, whether and how different factors interact to shape these decisions is not yet well understood, especially in individual foragers. Here we present a standardized set of manipulative field experiments in the form of foraging assays in the tropical lizard Anolis cristatellus in Puerto Rico. We presented male lizards with foraging opportunities to test how the presence of conspecifics, predation-risk perception, the abundance of food, and interactions among these factors determines the outcome of foraging decisions. In Experiment 1, anoles foraged faster when food was scarce and other conspecifics were present near the feeding tray, while they took longer to feed when food was abundant and when no conspecifics were present. These results suggest that foraging decisions in anoles are the result of a complex process in which individuals assess predation risk by using information from conspecific individuals while taking into account food abundance. In Experiment 2, a simulated increase in predation risk (i.e., distance to the feeding tray) confirmed the relevance of risk perception by showing that the use of available perches is strongly correlated with the latency to feed. We found Puerto Rican crested anoles integrate instantaneous ecological information about food abundance, conspecific activity and predation risk, and adjust their foraging behavior accordingly. PMID:26384236

Effective visualization of integrated knowledge and data to enable informed decisions in drug development and translational medicine

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Integrative understanding of preclinical and clinical data is imperative to enable informed decisions and reduce the attrition rate during drug development. The volume and variety of data generated during drug development have increased tremendously. A new information model and visualization tool was developed to effectively utilize all available data and current knowledge. The Knowledge Plot integrates preclinical, clinical, efficacy and safety data by adding two concepts: knowledge from the different disciplines and protein binding. Internal and public available data were gathered and processed to allow flexible and interactive visualizations. The exposure was expressed as the unbound concentration of the compound and the treatment effect was normalized and scaled by including expert opinion on what a biologically meaningful treatment effect would be. The Knowledge Plot has been applied both retrospectively and prospectively in project teams in a number of different therapeutic areas, resulting in closer collaboration between multiple disciplines discussing both preclinical and clinical data. The Plot allows head to head comparisons of compounds and was used to support Candidate Drug selections and differentiation from comparators and competitors, back translation of clinical data, understanding the predictability of preclinical models and assays, reviewing drift in primary endpoints over the years, and evaluate or benchmark compounds in due diligence comparing multiple attributes. The Knowledge Plot concept allows flexible integration and visualization of relevant data for interpretation in order to enable scientific and informed decision-making in various stages of drug development. The concept can be used for communication, decision-making, knowledge management, and as a forward and back translational tool, that will result in an improved understanding of the competitive edge for a particular project or disease area portfolio. In addition, it also builds up a knowledge and translational continuum, which in turn will reduce the attrition rate and costs of clinical development by identifying poor candidates early. PMID:24098919

Trust-based information system architecture for personal wellness.

PubMed

Ruotsalainen, Pekka; Nykänen, Pirkko; Seppälä, Antto; Blobel, Bernd

2014-01-01

Modern eHealth, ubiquitous health and personal wellness systems take place in an unsecure and ubiquitous information space where no predefined trust occurs. This paper presents novel information model and an architecture for trust based privacy management of personal health and wellness information in ubiquitous environment. The architecture enables a person to calculate a dynamic and context-aware trust value for each service provider, and using it to design personal privacy policies for trustworthy use of health and wellness services. For trust calculation a novel set of measurable context-aware and health information-sensitive attributes is developed. The architecture enables a person to manage his or her privacy in ubiquitous environment by formulating context-aware and service provider specific policies. Focus groups and information modelling was used for developing a wellness information model. System analysis method based on sequential steps that enable to combine results of analysis of privacy and trust concerns and the selection of trust and privacy services was used for development of the information system architecture. Its services (e.g. trust calculation, decision support, policy management and policy binding services) and developed attributes enable a person to define situation-aware policies that regulate the way his or her wellness and health information is processed.

Cardiac imaging modalities with ionizing radiation: the role of informed consent.

PubMed

Paterick, Timothy E; Jan, M Fuad; Paterick, Zachary R; Tajik, A Jamil; Gerber, Thomas C

2012-06-01

Informed consent ideally results in patient autonomy and rational health care decisions. Frequently, patients face complex medical decisions that require a delicate balancing of anticipated benefits and potential risks, which is the concept of informed consent. This balancing process requires an understanding of available medical evidence and alternative medical options, and input from experienced physicians. The informed consent doctrine places a positive obligation on physicians to partner with patients as they try to make the best decision for their specific medical situation. The high prevalence and mortality related to heart disease in our society has led to increased cardiac imaging with modalities that use ionizing radiation. This paper reviews how physicians can meet the ideals of informed consent when considering cardiac imaging with ionizing radiation, given the limited evidence for risks and benefits. The goal is an informed patient making rational choices based on available medical information. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating Land Cover Modeling and Adaptive Management to Conserve Endangered Species and Reduce Catastrophic Fire Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources and then decision makers can use this to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision making, where science allows us to learn to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuels monitoring with decision making focused on dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy, but habitat trajectories suggest tradeoffs. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state and by ideas about fire behavior. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility for and cover modeling programs intended to inform decision making.

Expanding the Reach of Participatory Risk Management: Testing an Online Decision-Aiding Framework for Informing Internally Consistent Choices.

PubMed

Bessette, Douglas L; Campbell-Arvai, Victoria; Arvai, Joseph

2016-05-01

This article presents research aimed at developing and testing an online, multistakeholder decision-aiding framework for informing multiattribute risk management choices associated with energy development and climate change. The framework was designed to provide necessary background information and facilitate internally consistent choices, or choices that are in line with users' prioritized objectives. In order to test different components of the decision-aiding framework, a six-part, 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted, yielding eight treatment scenarios. The three factors included: (1) whether or not users could construct their own alternatives; (2) the level of detail regarding the composition of alternatives users would evaluate; and (3) the way in which a final choice between users' own constructed (or highest-ranked) portfolio and an internally consistent portfolio was presented. Participants' self-reports revealed the framework was easy to use and providing an opportunity to develop one's own risk-management alternatives (Factor 1) led to the highest knowledge gains. Empirical measures showed the internal consistency of users' decisions across all treatments to be lower than expected and confirmed that providing information about alternatives' composition (Factor 2) resulted in the least internally consistent choices. At the same time, those users who did not develop their own alternatives and were not shown detailed information about the composition of alternatives believed their choices to be the most internally consistent. These results raise concerns about how the amount of information provided and the ability to construct alternatives may inversely affect users' real and perceived internal consistency. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Pervasive Social Networking Application: I-NFC enabled Florist Smart Advisor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swee Wen, Khoo; Mahinderjit Singh, Manmeet

2016-11-01

Location based service is an information and entertainment service, accessible with mobile devices through the mobile network and utilizing the ability to make use of the geographical position of the mobile device. NFC location based service is using one of the modes of NFC such as peer-to-peer, reader/writer, and card emulation to obtain the information of the object and then get the location of the object. In this paper, the proposed solution is I- NFC-enabled Pervasive Social Networking apps for florists. It combines the NFC location based service with Online Social Network (OSN). In addition, a smart advisor in the system to provide output in making their own decision while purchasing products.The development of the system demonstrates that a designed commerce site is provided which enable a communication between NFC-enabled smartphone, NFC-enabled application and OSN. GPS functionalities also implemented to provide map and location of business services. Smart advisor also designed to provide information for users who do not have ideas what to purchase.

Women's decision-making processes and the influences on their mode of birth following a previous caesarean section in Taiwan: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Chen, Shu-Wen; Hutchinson, Alison M; Nagle, Cate; Bucknall, Tracey K

2018-01-17

Vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) is an alternative option for women who have had a previous caesarean section (CS); however, uptake is limited because of concern about the risks of uterine rupture. The aim of this study was to explore women's decision-making processes and the influences on their mode of birth following a previous CS. A qualitative approach was used. The research comprised three stages. Stage I consisted of naturalistic observation at 33-34 weeks' gestation. Stage II involved interviews with pregnant women at 35-37 weeks' gestation. Stage III consisted of interviews with the same women who were interviewed postnatally, 1 month after birth. The research was conducted in a private medical centre in northern Taiwan. Using a purposive sampling, 21 women and 9 obstetricians were recruited. Data collection involved in-depth interviews, observation and field notes. Constant comparative analysis was employed for data analysis. Ensuring the safety of mother and baby was the focus of women's decisions. Women's decisions-making influences included previous birth experience, concern about the risks of vaginal birth, evaluation of mode of birth, current pregnancy situation, information resources and health insurance. In communicating with obstetricians, some women complied with obstetricians' recommendations for repeat caesarean section (RCS) without being informed of alternatives. Others used four step decision-making processes that included searching for information, listening to obstetricians' professional judgement, evaluating alternatives, and making a decision regarding mode of birth. After birth, women reflected on their decisions in three aspects: reflection on birth choices; reflection on factors influencing decisions; and reflection on outcomes of decisions. The health and wellbeing of mother and baby were the major concerns for women. In response to the decision-making influences, women's interactions with obstetricians regarding birth choices varied from passive decision-making to shared decision-making. All women have the right to be informed of alternative birthing options. Routine provision of explanations by obstetricians regarding risks associated with alternative birth options, in addition to financial coverage for RCS from National Health Insurance, would assist women's decision-making. Establishment of a website to provide women with reliable information about birthing options may also assist women's decision-making.

Informed consent for the diagnosis of brain death: a conceptual argument.

PubMed

Muramoto, Osamu

2016-10-13

This essay provides an ethical and conceptual argument for the use of informed consent prior to the diagnosis of brain death. It is meant to enable the family to make critical end-of-life decisions, particularly withdrawal of life support system and organ donation, before brain death is diagnosed, as opposed to the current practice of making such decisions after the diagnosis of death. The recent tragic case of a 13-year-old brain-dead patient in California who was maintained on a ventilator for over 2 years illustrates how such a consent would have made a crucial difference. Conceptual, philosophical, and ethical analysis. I first consider a conceptual justification for the use of consent for certain non-beneficial and unwanted medical diagnoses. I suggest that the diagnosis of brain death falls into this category for some patients. Because the diagnostic process of brain death lacks the transparency of traditional death determination, has a unique epistemic structure and a complex risk-benefit profile which differs markedly from case to case, and presents conflicts of interest for physicians and society, I argue that pre-diagnostic counseling and informed consent should be part of the diagnostic process. This approach can be termed as "allow cardiac death", whose parallel logic with "allow natural death" is discussed. I also discuss potential negative impacts on organ donation and health care cost from this proposal and offer possible mitigation. I show that the pre-diagnostic counseling can improve the possibility for well-thought-out decisions regarding organ donation and terminating life-support system in cases of hopeless prognosis. This approach differs conceptually from the pluralism of the definition of death, such as those in New Jersey and Japan, and it upholds the Uniform Determination of Death Act. My intention is not to provide an instant panacea for the ongoing impasse of the brain death debate, but to point to a novel conceptual ground for a more pragmatic, and more patient- and family-centered approach. By enabling the family to consent to or decline the diagnostic process of brain death, but not to choose the definition of death, it upholds the current legal definition of death.

Improving technical information use: what can be learnt from a manager's perspective?

PubMed

Jacobson, C; Lisle, A; Carter, R W; Hockings, M T

2013-07-01

Conservation practice reportedly suffers from low use of technical information. Understanding of factors that affect the influence of technical information on management decision-making is limited. We sought to identify leverage points for improved technical information dissemination in the New South Wales Parks and Wildlife Service, Australia, given the significant recent investments in monitoring and evaluation that had been made. We did so by exploring the inter-relationships between factors affecting the influence of different information types on management decisions. Results indicate that managers have a high inclination toward adaptive behavior, given they operate in an information poor environment. The most influential types of information were those that enabled interaction between information provider and recipient (e.g., staff experience and expertise). An analysis of the concordance in individuals' responses for different information types showed that neither accessibility nor organizational expectation of use was aligned with influence on decision-making. Alignment of responses also varied by work area. Raising expectations of information use or increasing access to particular types of information is therefore unlikely to result in an increase in influence on management decision-making. Rather than focussing on matching accessibility and expected use of particular information types, our results indicate that technical information uptake is best supported through existing peer networks tailored to specific work areas.

Preclinical Bioavailability Strategy for Decisions on Clinical Drug Formulation Development: An In Depth Analysis.

PubMed

Van den Bergh, An; Van Hemelryck, Sandy; Bevernage, Jan; Van Peer, Achiel; Brewster, Marcus; Mackie, Claire; Mannaert, Erik

2018-06-11

The aim of the presented retrospective analysis was to verify whether a previously proposed Janssen Biopharmaceutical Classification System (BCS)-like decision tree, based on preclinical bioavailability data of a solution and suspension formulation, would facilitate informed decision making on the clinical formulation development strategy. In addition, the predictive value of (in vitro) selection criteria, such as solubility, human permeability, and/or a clinical dose number (Do), were evaluated, potentially reducing additional supporting formulation bioavailability studies in animals. The absolute ( F abs,sol ) and relative ( F rel, susp/sol ) bioavailability of an oral solution and suspension, respectively, in rat or dog and the anticipated BCS classification were analyzed for 89 Janssen compounds with 28 of these having F rel,susp/sol and F abs,sol in both rat and dog at doses around 10 and 5 mg/kg, respectively. The bioavailability outcomes in the dog aligned well with a BCS-like classification based upon the solubility of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in biorelevant media, while the alignment was less clear for the bioavailability data in the rat. A retrospective analysis on the clinically tested formulations for a set of 12 Janssen compounds confirmed that the previously proposed animal bioavailability-based decision tree facilitated decisions on the oral formulation type, with the dog as the most discriminative species. Furthermore, the analysis showed that based on a Do for a standard human dose of 100 mg in aqueous and/or biorelevant media, a similar formulation type would have been selected compared to the one suggested by the animal data. However, the concept of a Do did not distinguish between solubility enhancing or enabling formulations and does not consider the API permeability, and hence, it produces the risk of slow and potentially incomplete oral absorption of an API with poor intestinal permeability. In cases where clinical dose estimations are available early in development, the preclinical bioavailability studies and dose number calculations, used to guide formulation selection, may be performed at more relevant doses instead of the proposed standard human dose. It should be noted, however, that unlike in late development, there is uncertainty on the clinical dose estimated in the early clinical phases because that dose is usually only based on in vitro and/or in vivo animal pharmacology models, or early clinical biomarker information. Therefore, formulation strategies may be adjusted based on emerging data supporting clinical doses. In summary, combined early information on in vitro-assessed API solubility and permeability, preclinical suspension/solution bioavailability data in relation to the intravenous clearance, and metabolic pathways of the API can strengthen formulation decisions. However, these data may not always fully distinguish between conventional (e.g., to be taken with food), enhancing, and enabling formulations. Therefore, to avoid overinvestment in complex and expensive enabling technologies, it is useful to evaluate a conventional and solubility (and/or permeability) enhancing formulation under fasted and fed conditions, as part of a first-in-human study or in a subsequent early human bioavailability study, for compounds with high Do, a low animal F rel,susp/sol , or low F abs,sol caused by precipitation of the solubilized API.

The neural representation of unexpected uncertainty during value-based decision making.

PubMed

Payzan-LeNestour, Elise; Dunne, Simon; Bossaerts, Peter; O'Doherty, John P

2013-07-10

Uncertainty is an inherent property of the environment and a central feature of models of decision-making and learning. Theoretical propositions suggest that one form, unexpected uncertainty, may be used to rapidly adapt to changes in the environment, while being influenced by two other forms: risk and estimation uncertainty. While previous studies have reported neural representations of estimation uncertainty and risk, relatively little is known about unexpected uncertainty. Here, participants performed a decision-making task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which, in combination with a Bayesian model-based analysis, enabled us to separately examine each form of uncertainty examined. We found representations of unexpected uncertainty in multiple cortical areas, as well as the noradrenergic brainstem nucleus locus coeruleus. Other unique cortical regions were found to encode risk, estimation uncertainty, and learning rate. Collectively, these findings support theoretical models in which several formally separable uncertainty computations determine the speed of learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Financial dashboard reporting for the hospital industry.

PubMed

Cleverley, W O

2001-01-01

Most senior executives and board members experience information overload in their decision making roles. They simply receive an excessive amount of unrelated data that is not benchmarked to standards that enable them to make effective decisions. This is an unfortunate situation given the information technology and the availability of public data that exists today. Many firms in a variety of industry sectors have combined the concept of "balanced scorecards" with "dashboard" reporting to revamp their senior level executive reporting systems. A sample dashboard reporting system for a hospital is outlined in this paper.

Climate modeling with decision makers in mind

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew; Calvin, Katherine; Lamarque, Jean -Francois

The need for regional- and local-scale climate information is increasing rapidly as decision makers seek to anticipate and manage a variety of context-specific climate risks over the next several decades. Furthermore, global climate models are not developed with these user needs in mind, and they typically operate at resolutions that are too coarse to provide information that could be used to support regional and local decisions.

Climate modeling with decision makers in mind

DOE PAGES

Jones, Andrew; Calvin, Katherine; Lamarque, Jean -Francois

2016-04-27

The need for regional- and local-scale climate information is increasing rapidly as decision makers seek to anticipate and manage a variety of context-specific climate risks over the next several decades. Furthermore, global climate models are not developed with these user needs in mind, and they typically operate at resolutions that are too coarse to provide information that could be used to support regional and local decisions.

Environmental management system for transportation maintenance operations : [technical brief].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

This report provides the framework for the environmental management system to analyze : greenhouse gas emissions from transportation maintenance operations. The system enables user : to compare different scenarios and make informed decisions to minim...

Networks.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maughan, George R.; Petitto, Karen R.; McLaughlin, Don

2001-01-01

Describes the connectivity features and options of modern campus communication and information system networks, including signal transmission (wire-based and wireless), signal switching, convergence of networks, and network assessment variables, to enable campus leaders to make sound future-oriented decisions. (EV)

Toxicogenomics and the Regulatory Framework

EPA Science Inventory

Toxicogenomics presents regulatory agencies with the opportunity to revolutionize their analyses by enabling the collection of information on a broader range of responses than currently considered in traditional regulatory decision making. Analyses of genomic responses are expec...

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically in regards to the level of robustness and flexibility in the selected strategy. This work will equip practitioners and decision makers with an example of a structured process for decision making under climate uncertainty that can be scaled as needed to the problem at hand. This presentation builds further on another submitted abstract "Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning" by Jeuken et al.

Medical Decision-Making Among Elderly People in Long Term Care.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tymchuk, Alexander J.; And Others

1988-01-01

Presented informed consent information on high and low risk medical procedures to elderly persons in long term care facility in standard, simplified, or storybook format. Comprehension was significantly better for simplified and storybook formats. Ratings of decision-making ability approximated comprehension test results. Comprehension test…

Essays on competition in electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bustos Salvagno, Ricardo Javier

The first chapter shows how technology decisions affect entry in commodity markets with oligopolistic competition, like the electricity market. I demonstrate an entry deterrence effect that works through cost uncertainty. Technology's cost uncertainty affects spot market expected profits through forward market trades. Therefore, incentives to engage in forward trading shape firms' decisions on production technologies. I show that high-cost but low-risk technologies are adopted by risk-averse incumbents to deter entry. Strategic technology adoption can end in a equilibrium where high-cost technologies prevail over low-cost but riskier ones. In the case of incumbents who are less risk-averse than entrants, entry deterrence is achieved by choosing riskier technologies. The main results do not depend on who chooses their technology first. Chapter two examines the Chilean experience on auctions for long-term supply contracts in electricity markets from 2006 to 2011. Using a divisible-good auction model, I provide a theoretical framework that explains bidding behavior in terms of expected spot prices and contracting positions. The model is extended to include potential strategic behavior on contracting decisions. Empirical estimations confirm the main determinants of bidding behavior and show heterogeneity in the marginal cost of over-contracting depending on size and incumbency. Chapter three analyzes the lag in capacity expansion in the Chilean electricity market from 2000 to 2004. Regarded as a result of regulatory uncertainty, the role of delays in the construction of a large hydro-power plant has been overlooked by the literature. We argue that those delays postponed projected investment and gave small windows of opportunity that only incumbents could take advantage of. We are able to retrace the history of investments through real-time information from the regulator's reports and a simple model enables us to explain the effect of those delays on suggested and under-construction investments.

78 FR 25440 - Request for Information and Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-01

... Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment AGENCY: Office of the Science Advisor, Environmental... requesting information and citations on approaches and methods for the planning, analysis, assessment, and... approaches to understanding risks to human health and the environment. For example, in Science & Decisions...

Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.

2016-06-25

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the security and resilience of the electric power grid. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be difficult, as the statistical basis needed to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence does not exist. Because risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact, low-frequency events (HILFs) ismore » essential. Insights from such a model indicate where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. A risk-informed realization of designing and maintaining a grid resilient to HILFs will demand consideration of a spectrum of hazards/threats to infrastructure integrity, an understanding of their likelihoods of occurrence, treatment of the fragilities of critical assets to the stressors induced by such events, and through modeling grid network topology, the extent of damage associated with these scenarios. The model resulting from integration of these elements will allow sensitivity assessments based on optional risk management strategies, such as alternative pooling, staging and logistic strategies, and emergency contingency planning. This study is focused on the development of an end-to-end HILF risk-assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision-makers across numerous stakeholder groups in directing resources optimally towards the management of risks to operational continuity.« less

Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

system configuration changes could enable department officials to make more informed decisions in the early stages of a program and better match...accountability in the execution of each program would alleviate untimely decision making when programs do get into trouble. The current DOD leadership has...require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions

Using ecological production functions to link ecological ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecological production functions (EPFs) link ecosystems, stressors, and management actions to ecosystem services (ES) production. Although EPFs are acknowledged as being essential to improve environmental management, their use in ecological risk assessment has received relatively little attention. Ecological production functions may be defined as usable expressions (i.e., models) of the processes by which ecosystems produce ES, often including external influences on those processes. We identify key attributes of EPFs and discuss both actual and idealized examples of their use to inform decision making. Whenever possible, EPFs should estimate final, rather than intermediate, ES. Although various types of EPFs have been developed, we suggest that EPFs are more useful for decision making if they quantify ES outcomes, respond to ecosystem condition, respond to stressor levels or management scenarios, reflect ecological complexity, rely on data with broad coverage, have performed well previously, are practical to use, and are open and transparent. In an example using pesticides, we illustrate how EPFs with these attributes could enable the inclusion of ES in ecological risk assessment. The biggest challenges to ES inclusion are limited data sets that are easily adapted for use in modeling EPFs and generally poor understanding of linkages among ecological components and the processes that ultimately deliver the ES. We conclude by advocating for the incorporation into E

Emotions, decisions, and the limits of rationality: symposium introduction.

PubMed

Ubel, Peter A

2005-01-01

In this symposium, three speakers describe research that examines ways in which people's decision-making is affected by emotions. In his paper, Dr. Loewenstein describes research on the properties and effects of "projection bias," the tendency to allow one's immediate, often transient, preferences to influence decisions in the future when one's preferences will be predictable different. Over-shopping on an empty stomach or failing, when not addicted, to appreciate one's future helplessness in the face of drug craving, are examples. Dr. Schwarz focuses on how experiences that accompany the thought process can influence the ease of access to information or the fluency with which new information can be processed. These meta-cognitive experiences can affect decisions. For example, recalling many risk-increasing behaviors is more difficult than recalling only a few. Drawing on this difficulty, people who recall many risk-increasing behaviors infer that they are at lower risk than people who recall merely a few risk-increasing behaviors, in contrast to what the content of recall would suggest. Finally, Dr. Bodenhausen clarifies what is meant by stereotyping, considers how stereotypes might influence decision-making processes, and discuss why this influence often might not be very desirable. He then describes research about factors that amplify the biasing impact of stereotypes in decision making processes. The authors provide examples, discuss implications of their findings for medical decision-making, and describe strategies that we might employ to minimize or eliminate the biases that might be introduced into decision-making processes.

Informed decision-making in elective major vascular surgery: analysis of 145 surgeon-patient consultations.

PubMed

Etchells, Edward; Ferrari, Michel; Kiss, Alex; Martyn, Nikki; Zinman, Deborah; Levinson, Wendy

2011-06-01

Prior studies show significant gaps in the informed decision-making process, a central goal of surgical care. These studies have been limited by their focus on low-risk decisions, single visits rather than entire consultations, or both. Our objectives were, first, to rate informed decision-making for major elective vascular surgery based on audiotapes of actual physician-patient conversations and, second, to compare ratings of informed decision-making for first visits to ratings for multiple visits by the same patient over time. We prospectively enrolled patients for whom vascular surgical treatment was a potential option at a tertiary care outpatient vascular surgery clinic. We audio-taped all surgeon-patient conversations, including multiple visits when necessary, until a decision was made. Using an existing method, we evaluated the transcripts for elements of decision-making, including basic elements (e.g., an explanation of the clinical condition), intermediate elements (e.g., risks and benefits) and complex elements (e.g., uncertainty around the decision). We analyzed 145 surgeon-patient consultations. Overall, 45% of consultations contained complex elements, whereas 23% did not contain the basic elements of decision-making. For the 67 consultations that involved multiple visits, ratings were significantly higher when evaluating all visits (50% complex elements) compared with evaluating only the first visit (33% complex elements, p < 0.001.) We found that 45% of consultations contained complex elements, which is higher than prior studies with similar methods. Analyzing decision-making over multiple visits yielded different results than analyzing decision-making for single visits.

The application of seismic risk-benefit analysis to land use planning in Taipei City.

PubMed

Hung, Hung-Chih; Chen, Liang-Chun

2007-09-01

In the developing countries of Asia local authorities rarely use risk analysis instruments as a decision-making support mechanism during planning and development procedures. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology to enable planners to undertake such analyses. We illustrate a case study of seismic risk-benefit analysis for the city of Taipei, Taiwan, using available land use maps and surveys as well as a new tool developed by the National Science Council in Taiwan--the HAZ-Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system. We use three hypothetical earthquakes to estimate casualties and total and annualised direct economic losses, and to show their spatial distribution. We also characterise the distribution of vulnerability over the study area using cluster analysis. A risk-benefit ratio is calculated to express the levels of seismic risk attached to alternative land use plans. This paper suggests ways to perform earthquake risk evaluations and the authors intend to assist city planners to evaluate the appropriateness of their planning decisions.

An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

2015-11-15

There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Developing a Framework to Link Catchment Modelling tools to Decision Support Systems for Catchment Management and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Russell; Owen, Gareth

2015-04-01

Over the past few years a series of catchment monitoring studies in the UK have developed a wide range of tools to enable managers and planners to make informed decisions to target several key outcomes. These outcomes include the mitigation of diffuse pollution and the reduction of flood risk. Good progress has been but additional steps are still required to link together more detailed models that represent catchment processes with the decision support systems (often termed matrices; i.e. DSMs) which form the basis of these planning and management tools. Examples include: (i) the FARM tools developed by the PROACTIVE team at Newcastle University to assess different catchment management options for mitigating against flooding events, (ii) TOPMANAGE, a suite of algorithms that link with high resolution DEMs to enable surface flow pathways, having the potential to be mitigated by Natural Flood Management (NFM) features (in order to target diffuse pollution due to nutrients and sediments) to be identified. To date, these DSMs have not been underpinned by models that can be run in real-time to quantify the benefits in terms of measurable reductions in flood or nutrient pollution risks. Their use has therefore been mostly as qualitative assessment tools. This study aims to adapt an existing spreadsheet-based model, the CRAFT, in order for it to become fully coupled to a DSM approach. Previous catchment scale applications of the CRAFT have focussed on meso-scale studies where any management interventions at a local scale are unlikely to be detectable at the monitoring point (the catchment outlet). The model has however been reasonably successful in identifying potential flow and transport pathways that link the headwater subcatchments to the outlet. Furthermore, recent enhancements to the model enable features such as sedimentation ponds and lagoons that can trap and remove nutrients and sediments to be added, once data become available from different types of NFM features to parameterise these. The model can be used to investigate runoff attenuation (in this case primarily through a lagged routing term applied to surface runoff) as a result of implementing mitigation measures. However to be fully integrated within a DSM framework requires the CRAFT to be linked to a user-friendly interface that will allow the user to modify key parameters, preferably using a web-based expert system, which will be explored further.

Drug safety in pregnancy: utopia or achievable prospect? Risk information, risk research and advocacy in Teratology Information Services.

PubMed

Schaefer, Christof

2011-03-01

Even though from preclinical testing to drug risk labeling, the situation with drugs in pregnancy has improved substantially since the thalidomide scandal, there is still an increasing need to provide healthcare professionals and patients with updated individualized risk information for clinical decision making. For the majority of drugs, clinical experience is still insufficient with respect to their safety in pregnancy. There is often uncertainty in how to interpret the available scientific data. Based on 20 years of experience with Teratology Information Services (TIS) cooperating in the European Network of Teratology Information Services (ENTIS) methods of risk interpretation, follow-up of exposed pregnancies through the consultation process and their evaluation is discussed. Vitamin K antagonists, isotretinoin and angiotensin (AT) II-receptor-antagonists are presented as examples of misinterpretation of drug risks and subjects of research based on observational clinical data recorded in TIS. As many TIS are poorly funded, advocacy is necessary by establishing contacts with decision makers in health politics and administration, informing them of the high return in terms of health outcomes and cost savings provided by TIS as reference institutions in clinical teratology. © 2011 The Author. Congenital Anomalies © 2011 Japanese Teratology Society.

Computerized Decision Aids for Shared Decision Making in Serious Illness: Systematic Review.

PubMed

Staszewska, Anna; Zaki, Pearl; Lee, Joon

2017-10-06

Shared decision making (SDM) is important in achieving patient-centered care. SDM tools such as decision aids are intended to inform the patient. When used to assist in decision making between treatments, decision aids have been shown to reduce decisional conflict, increase ease of decision making, and increase modification of previous decisions. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes related to SDM for seriously ill patients. PubMed and Scopus databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that assessed the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes and SDM in serious illness. Six RCTs were identified and data were extracted on study population, design, and results. Risk of bias was assessed by a modified Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for Quality Assessment of Randomized Controlled Trials. Six RCTs tested decision tools in varying serious illnesses. Three studies compared different computerized decision aids against each other and a control. All but one study demonstrated improvement in at least one patient-centered outcome. Computerized decision tools may reduce unnecessary treatment in patients with low disease severity in comparison with informational pamphlets. Additionally, electronic health record (EHR) portals may provide the opportunity to manage care from the home for individuals affected by illness. The quality of decision aids is of great importance. Furthermore, satisfaction with the use of tools is associated with increased patient satisfaction and reduced decisional conflict. Finally, patients may benefit from computerized decision tools without the need for increased physician involvement. Most computerized decision aids improved at least one patient-centered outcome. All RCTs identified were at a High Risk of Bias or Unclear Risk of Bias. Effort should be made to improve the quality of RCTs testing SDM aids in serious illness. ©Anna Staszewska, Pearl Zaki, Joon Lee. Originally published in JMIR Medical Informatics (http://medinform.jmir.org), 06.10.2017.

Propulsion System Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tai, Jimmy C. M.; McClure, Erin K.; Mavris, Dimitri N.; Burg, Cecile

2002-01-01

The Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at the School of Aerospace Engineering in Georgia Institute of Technology has developed a core competency that enables propulsion technology managers to make technology investment decisions substantiated by propulsion and airframe technology system studies. This method assists the designer/manager in selecting appropriate technology concepts while accounting for the presence of risk and uncertainty as well as interactions between disciplines. This capability is incorporated into a single design simulation system that is described in this paper. This propulsion system design environment is created with a commercially available software called iSIGHT, which is a generic computational framework, and with analysis programs for engine cycle, engine flowpath, mission, and economic analyses. iSIGHT is used to integrate these analysis tools within a single computer platform and facilitate information transfer amongst the various codes. The resulting modeling and simulation (M&S) environment in conjunction with the response surface method provides the designer/decision-maker an analytical means to examine the entire design space from either a subsystem and/or system perspective. The results of this paper will enable managers to analytically play what-if games to gain insight in to the benefits (and/or degradation) of changing engine cycle design parameters. Furthermore, the propulsion design space will be explored probabilistically to show the feasibility and viability of the propulsion system integrated with a vehicle.

Barriers and decisions when answering clinical questions at the point of care: a grounded theory study.

PubMed

Cook, David A; Sorensen, Kristi J; Wilkinson, John M; Berger, Richard A

2013-11-25

Answering clinical questions affects patient-care decisions and is important to continuous professional development. The process of point-of-care learning is incompletely understood. To understand what barriers and enabling factors influence physician point-of-care learning and what decisions physicians face during this process. Focus groups with grounded theory analysis. Focus group discussions were transcribed and then analyzed using a constant comparative approach to identify barriers, enabling factors, and key decisions related to physician information-seeking activities. Academic medical center and outlying community sites. Purposive sample of 50 primary care and subspecialist internal medicine and family medicine physicians, interviewed in 11 focus groups. Insufficient time was the main barrier to point-of-care learning. Other barriers included the patient comorbidities and contexts, the volume of available information, not knowing which resource to search, doubt that the search would yield an answer, difficulty remembering questions for later study, and inconvenient access to computers. Key decisions were whether to search (reasons to search included infrequently seen conditions, practice updates, complex questions, and patient education), when to search (before, during, or after the clinical encounter), where to search (with the patient present or in a separate room), what type of resource to use (colleague or computer), what specific resource to use (influenced first by efficiency and second by credibility), and when to stop. Participants noted that key features of efficiency (completeness, brevity, and searchability) are often in conflict. Physicians perceive that insufficient time is the greatest barrier to point-of-care learning, and efficiency is the most important determinant in selecting an information source. Designing knowledge resources and systems to target key decisions may improve learning and patient care.

CrossTalk: The Journal of Defense Software Engineering. Volume 21, Number 3

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

describes essentials for requirements development and management. In addi- tion to providing training, eLearning and consulting services, she speaks at and...information, support sense- making, enable collaborative decision making, and effect changes in the physical environment. For example, the Global ...across layers, which enables effective use of resources and helps enforce security and confiden- tiality policies. Global Data Space DDS provides a

Preparing young people for future decision-making about cancer risk in families affected or at risk from hereditary breast cancer: A qualitative interview study.

PubMed

Rowland, Emma; Plumridge, Gill; Considine, Anna-Marie; Metcalfe, Alison

2016-12-01

Women carrying the mutated BRCA gene, have approximately an 80% life-time risk of developing breast cancer with 50% risk of their children inheriting the gene mutation. Many parents find it difficult to know when and how to disclose this information to their children and how such disclosure might affect their child's future decision-making. This study explored the communication of genetic risk information in families using qualitative semi-structured interviews conducted with parents, children (7-11years) and young people (12-18years) affected or at risk from a BRCA gene mutation. Thematic analysis was applied to coded transcripts producing four themes; family communication, perception of cancer risks, risk management strategies and impact of genetic risk communication in children and young people's decision making. Twenty-seven individuals from 11 families took part, recruited through purposive sampling techniques. Cancer risk caused by a BRCA gene mutation induced a sense of fear in parents about their children's future. As a result, parents with hereditary breast cancer disclosed limited information about the risks associated with prophylactic surgery and/or the psychological and emotional impacts of surgery on body image. This had implications to children and young people's perceptions of prophylactic procedures, which were already influenced by cultural understandings of the 'desirable body' and increasing acceptance and proliferation cosmetic surgery. Lack of risk management information and the acculturation of cosmetic surgery combined to limit children and young people's understanding of the impact of hereditary breast cancer; reducing their ability to actualise the physiological, psychological and emotional consequences of surgery. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Early Childhood Development in Abbotsford, British Columbia. Understanding the Early Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Human Resources Development Canada, 2003

2003-01-01

Understanding the Early Years (UEY) is a national research initiative. It provides communities with information to enable them to make informed decisions about the best policies and most appropriate programs for Canadian families with young children. This report is based on one of seven communities studied in 2001-2002. Children's outcomes were…

Early Childhood Development in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Understanding the Early Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilms, Douglas J.

2003-01-01

Understanding the Early Years (UEY) is a national research initiative. It provides communities with information to enable them to make informed decisions about the best policies and most appropriate programs for Canadian families with young children. This report is based on one of seven communities studied in 2001-2002. Children's outcomes were…

Developing a Benchmark Tool for Sustainable Consumption: An Iterative Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heiskanen, E.; Timonen, P.; Nissinen, A.; Gronroos, J.; Honkanen, A.; Katajajuuri, J. -M.; Kettunen, J.; Kurppa, S.; Makinen, T.; Seppala, J.; Silvenius, F.; Virtanen, Y.; Voutilainen, P.

2007-01-01

This article presents the development process of a consumer-oriented, illustrative benchmarking tool enabling consumers to use the results of environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to make informed decisions. LCA provides a wealth of information on the environmental impacts of products, but its results are very difficult to present concisely…

75 FR 17151 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request, OMB No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-05

.... 1660--NEW; FEMA Form 089-23, Buffer Zone Plan; FEMA Form 089-23A, Vulnerability Reduction Purchasing...-23A, Vulnerability Reduction Purchasing Plan. Abstract: The information collection activity is the... enables FEMA to evaluate applications and make award decisions, monitor ongoing performance and manage the...

Label-free single-cell separation and imaging of cancer cells using an integrated microfluidic system

PubMed Central

Antfolk, Maria; Kim, Soo Hyeon; Koizumi, Saori; Fujii, Teruo; Laurell, Thomas

2017-01-01

The incidence of cancer is increasing worldwide and metastatic disease, through the spread of circulating tumor cells (CTCs), is responsible for the majority of the cancer deaths. Accurate monitoring of CTC levels in blood provides clinical information supporting therapeutic decision making, and improved methods for CTC enumeration are asked for. Microfluidics has been extensively used for this purpose but most methods require several post-separation processing steps including concentration of the sample before analysis. This induces a high risk of sample loss of the collected rare cells. Here, an integrated system is presented that efficiently eliminates this risk by integrating label-free separation with single cell arraying of the target cell population, enabling direct on-chip tumor cell identification and enumeration. Prostate cancer cells (DU145) spiked into a sample with whole blood concentration of the peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) fraction were efficiently separated and trapped at a recovery of 76.2 ± 5.9% of the cancer cells and a minute contamination of 0.12 ± 0.04% PBMCs while simultaneously enabling a 20x volumetric concentration. This constitutes a first step towards a fully integrated system for rapid label-free separation and on-chip phenotypic characterization of circulating tumor cells from peripheral venous blood in clinical practice. PMID:28425472

Label-free single-cell separation and imaging of cancer cells using an integrated microfluidic system.

PubMed

Antfolk, Maria; Kim, Soo Hyeon; Koizumi, Saori; Fujii, Teruo; Laurell, Thomas

2017-04-20

The incidence of cancer is increasing worldwide and metastatic disease, through the spread of circulating tumor cells (CTCs), is responsible for the majority of the cancer deaths. Accurate monitoring of CTC levels in blood provides clinical information supporting therapeutic decision making, and improved methods for CTC enumeration are asked for. Microfluidics has been extensively used for this purpose but most methods require several post-separation processing steps including concentration of the sample before analysis. This induces a high risk of sample loss of the collected rare cells. Here, an integrated system is presented that efficiently eliminates this risk by integrating label-free separation with single cell arraying of the target cell population, enabling direct on-chip tumor cell identification and enumeration. Prostate cancer cells (DU145) spiked into a sample with whole blood concentration of the peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) fraction were efficiently separated and trapped at a recovery of 76.2 ± 5.9% of the cancer cells and a minute contamination of 0.12 ± 0.04% PBMCs while simultaneously enabling a 20x volumetric concentration. This constitutes a first step towards a fully integrated system for rapid label-free separation and on-chip phenotypic characterization of circulating tumor cells from peripheral venous blood in clinical practice.

A new framework for modeling decisions about changing information: The Piecewise Linear Ballistic Accumulator model

PubMed Central

Heathcote, Andrew

2016-01-01

In the real world, decision making processes must be able to integrate non-stationary information that changes systematically while the decision is in progress. Although theories of decision making have traditionally been applied to paradigms with stationary information, non-stationary stimuli are now of increasing theoretical interest. We use a random-dot motion paradigm along with cognitive modeling to investigate how the decision process is updated when a stimulus changes. Participants viewed a cloud of moving dots, where the motion switched directions midway through some trials, and were asked to determine the direction of motion. Behavioral results revealed a strong delay effect: after presentation of the initial motion direction there is a substantial time delay before the changed motion information is integrated into the decision process. To further investigate the underlying changes in the decision process, we developed a Piecewise Linear Ballistic Accumulator model (PLBA). The PLBA is efficient to simulate, enabling it to be fit to participant choice and response-time distribution data in a hierarchal modeling framework using a non-parametric approximate Bayesian algorithm. Consistent with behavioral results, PLBA fits confirmed the presence of a long delay between presentation and integration of new stimulus information, but did not support increased response caution in reaction to the change. We also found the decision process was not veridical, as symmetric stimulus change had an asymmetric effect on the rate of evidence accumulation. Thus, the perceptual decision process was slow to react to, and underestimated, new contrary motion information. PMID:26760448

The Role of Geoscience Information in Reducing Catastrophic Loss Using a Web-Based Economics Experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, Richard L.; Brookshire, David S.; Ganderton, Philip T.

2003-01-01

What role can geoscience information play in the assessment of risk and the value of insurance, especially for natural hazard type risks? In an earlier, related paper Ganderton and others (2000) provided subjects with relatively simple geoscience information concerning natural hazard-type risks. Their research looked at how subjects purchase insurance when faced with relatively low probability but high loss risks of the kind that characterize natural hazards and now, increasingly, manmade disasters. They found evidence to support the expected utility theory (definitions of economics terms can be found in a glossary at the end of report), yet there remained the implication that subjects with excessive aversion to risk were willing to pay considerably more for insurance than the actuarially fair price plus any reasonable risk premium. Here, we report the results of additional experiments that provide further support for the basic postulates of expected utility theory. However, these new experiments add considerably to the decision environment facing subjects by offering an option to purchase geoscientific information that would assist them when calculating expected losses from hazards more accurately. Using an Internet-based mechanism to present information and gather data in an experimental setting, this research provided subjects with considerable textual and graphical information, and time to process it. Over a period of three months, almost 400 subjects participated in on-line experiments that generated approximately 22,000 usable data points for the empirical analysis discussed in this report. In the design of the experiment, we modeled the decisions to purchase (1) a detailed map giving subjects more information regarding the distribution of losses from a hazard and (2) insurance to indemnify them from any losses should they occur. On the basis of this design, we find strong evidence in support of the expected utility theory. Many of the findings reinforce those found in the early, similar study (Ganderton and others, 2000). However, this research also finds interactions between the decision to become better informed and the decision to insure. We chose an empirical framework that allows for both explicit and implicit (unobservable) correlations between the two decisions. The results suggest that at the end of the computer game subjects recognize the benefits of greater geoscience information. They take advantage of it, but are sensitive to its cost. When subjects use the more detailed information, they are more likely to purchase insurance when it offers a net benefit.

Physician communication via Internet-enabled technology: A systematic review.

PubMed

Barr, Neil G; Randall, Glen E; Archer, Norman P; Musson, David M

2017-10-01

The use of Internet-enabled technology (information and communication technology such as smartphone applications) may enrich information exchange among providers and, consequently, improve health care delivery. The purpose of this systematic review was to gain a greater understanding of the role that Internet-enabled technology plays in enhancing communication among physicians. Studies were identified through a search in three electronic platforms: the Association for Computing Machinery Digital Library, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search identified 5140 articles; of these, 21 met all inclusion criteria. In general, physicians were satisfied with Internet-enabled technology, but consensus was lacking regarding whether Internet-enabled technology improved efficiency or made a difference to clinical decision-making. Internet-enabled technology can play an important role in enhancing communication among physicians, but the extent of that benefit is influenced by (1) the impact of Internet-enabled technology on existing work practices, (2) the availability of adequate resources, and (3) the nature of institutional elements, such as privacy legislation.

Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

2015-04-01

Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood forecasting systems. In a cooperation between HR Wallingford and Deltares, the extended workflows are being integrated into the Delft-FEWS software system. Delft-FEWS provides modules for managing the data handling and forecasting process. Results of a pilot study that demonstrates the new tools are presented. The value of the newly generated information for decision support during a flood event is discussed.

Impact of discharge planning decision support on time to readmission among older adult medical patients.

PubMed

Bowles, Kathryn H; Hanlon, Alexandra; Holland, Diane; Potashnik, Sheryl L; Topaz, Maxim

2014-01-01

Hospital clinicians are overwhelmed with the volume of patients churning through the health care systems. The study purpose was to determine whether alerting case managers about high-risk patients by supplying decision support results in better discharge plans as evidenced by time to first hospital readmission. Four medical units at one urban, university medical center. A quasi-experimental study including a usual care and experimental phase with hospitalized English-speaking patients aged 55 years and older. The intervention included using an evidence-based screening tool, the Discharge Decision Support System (D2S2), that supports clinicians' discharge referral decision making by identifying high-risk patients upon admission who need a referral for post-acute care. The usual care phase included collection of the D2S2 information, but not sharing the information with case managers. The experimental phase included data collection and then sharing the results with the case managers. The study compared time to readmission between index discharge date and 30 and 60 days in patients in both groups (usual care vs. experimental). After sharing the D2S2 results, the percentage of referral or high-risk patients readmitted by 30 and 60 days decreased by 6% and 9%, respectively, representing a 26% relative reduction in readmissions for both periods. Supplying decision support to identify high-risk patients recommended for postacute referral is associated with better discharge plans as evidenced by an increase in time to first hospital readmission. The tool supplies standardized information upon admission allowing more time to work with high-risk admissions.

On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

PubMed

Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

2015-10-23

Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

International Patients' Travel Decision Making Process- A Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

Khan, Mohammad Jamal; Chelliah, Shankar; Haron, Mahmod Sabri

2016-02-01

Role of information source, perceived benefits and risks, and destination image has significantly been examined in travel and tourism literature; however, in medical tourism it is yet to be examined thoroughly. The concept discussed in this article is drawn form well established models in tourism literature. The purpose of this research was to identify the source of information, travel benefits and perceived risks related to movement of international patients and develop a conceptual model based on well-established theory. Thorough database search (Science Direct, utmj.org, nih.gov, nchu.edu.tw, palgrave-journals, medretreat, Biomedcentral) was performed to fulfill the objectives of the study. International patients always concern about benefits and risks related to travel. These benefits and risks form images of destination in the minds of international patients. Different sources of information make international patients acquaint about the associated benefits and risks, which later leads to development of intention to visit. This conceptual paper helps in establishing model for decision-making process of international patients in developing visit intention. Ample amount of literature is available detailing different factors involved in travel decision making of international patients; however literature explaining relationship between these factors is scarce.

International Patients’ Travel Decision Making Process- A Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

KHAN, Mohammad Jamal; CHELLIAH, Shankar; HARON, Mahmod Sabri

2016-01-01

Background: Role of information source, perceived benefits and risks, and destination image has significantly been examined in travel and tourism literature; however, in medical tourism it is yet to be examined thoroughly. The concept discussed in this article is drawn form well established models in tourism literature. Methods: The purpose of this research was to identify the source of information, travel benefits and perceived risks related to movement of international patients and develop a conceptual model based on well-established theory. Thorough database search (Science Direct, utmj.org, nih.gov, nchu.edu.tw, palgrave-journals, medretreat, Biomedcentral) was performed to fulfill the objectives of the study. Results: International patients always concern about benefits and risks related to travel. These benefits and risks form images of destination in the minds of international patients. Different sources of information make international patients acquaint about the associated benefits and risks, which later leads to development of intention to visit. This conceptual paper helps in establishing model for decision-making process of international patients in developing visit intention. Conclusion: Ample amount of literature is available detailing different factors involved in travel decision making of international patients; however literature explaining relationship between these factors is scarce. PMID:27114978

Safety leadership and systems thinking: application and evaluation of a Risk Management Framework in the mining industry.

PubMed

Donovan, Sarah-Louise; Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Horberry, Tim

2017-10-01

Safety leadership is an important factor in supporting safety in high-risk industries. This article contends that applying systems-thinking methods to examine safety leadership can support improved learning from incidents. A case study analysis was undertaken of a large-scale mining landslide incident in which no injuries or fatalities were incurred. A multi-method approach was adopted, in which the Critical Decision Method, Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework and Accimap method were applied to examine the safety leadership decisions and actions which enabled the safe outcome. The approach enabled Rasmussen's predictions regarding safety and performance to be examined in the safety leadership context, with findings demonstrating the distribution of safety leadership across leader and system levels, and the presence of vertical integration as key to supporting the successful safety outcome. In doing so, the findings also demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to examine and learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. The implications, including future research directions, are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper presents a case study analysis, in which systems-thinking methods are applied to the examination of safety leadership decisions and actions during a large-scale mining landslide incident. The findings establish safety leadership as a systems phenomenon, and furthermore, demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. Implications, including future research directions, are discussed.

Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

2014-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and the Pilot Program on Climate Resilience.

Information Extraction Using Controlled English to Support Knowledge-Sharing and Decision-Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

or language variants. CE-based information extraction will greatly facilitate the processes in the cognitive and social domains that enable forces...terminology or language variants. CE-based information extraction will greatly facilitate the processes in the cognitive and social domains that...processor is run to turn the atomic CE into a more “ stylistically felicitous” CE, using techniques such as: aggregating all information about an entity

Scenarios in Social-Ecological Systems: Co-Producing Futures in Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovecraft, A. L.; Eicken, H.

2016-12-01

Companies use scenarios to gain the capacity to think ahead in rapidly changing complex competitive environments and make crucial decisions in absence of complete information about the future. Currently, at many regional scales of governance there is a growing need for tools that enable the actors at local-scales to address pressing concerns in the midst of uncertainty. This is particularly true of areas experiencing rapidly changing environments (e.g., drought, floods, diminishing sea ice, erosion) and complex social problems (e.g., remote communities, resource extraction, threatened cultures). Resilience theory and deliberative democracy both promote governance by informed actors in an effort to produce decisions that avoid social-environmental collapse. The former focusing on resilient ecosystems, the latter on informed social choices. Scenario exercises produce neither forecasts of what is to come nor are they visions of what participants would like to happen. Rather, they produce pertinent and accurate information related to questions of "what would happen if…" and thus provide the possibility of strategic decision-making to reduce risk and promote community resilience. Scenarios can be forms of social learning and among local-scale experts they create a deliberative process to make decisions about proactive adaptation. This talk represents the results from two projects from Alaska's Arctic Slope region. Resident expert participants from the Northwest Arctic and North Slope Boroughs addressed the focal question "What is needed for healthy sustainable communities by 2040?" Our findings reinforce the growing evidence from studies related to Arctic community sustainability and human development that indicate tight connections between fate-control, health, and environmental change. Our work differs, however, in using a future studies approach. The participants are addressing social-ecological resilience from a proactive standpoint thinking long-term about local and regional scale concerns rather than examining global-scale forecasts for near-term decision-making. The results contribute to a multi-disciplinary cross-cultural discussion of the importance of innovative thinking at the local scale and future directions for geophysical researchers in a rapidly changing Arctic.

Computerized Adaptive Test vs. decision trees: Development of a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior.

PubMed

Delgado-Gomez, D; Baca-Garcia, E; Aguado, D; Courtet, P; Lopez-Castroman, J

2016-12-01

Several Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) have been proposed to facilitate assessments in mental health. These tests are built in a standard way, disregarding useful and usually available information not included in the assessment scales that could increase the precision and utility of CATs, such as the history of suicide attempts. Using the items of a previously developed scale for suicidal risk, we compared the performance of a standard CAT and a decision tree in a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior. We included the history of past suicide attempts as a class for the separation of patients in the decision tree. The decision tree needed an average of four items to achieve a similar accuracy than a standard CAT with nine items. The accuracy of the decision tree, obtained after 25 cross-validations, was 81.4%. A shortened test adapted for the separation of suicidal and non-suicidal patients was developed. CATs can be very useful tools for the assessment of suicidal risk. However, standard CATs do not use all the information that is available. A decision tree can improve the precision of the assessment since they are constructed using a priori information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.