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Sample records for england complex systems

  1. International Instructional Systems: How England Measures Up

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creese, Brian; Isaacs, Tina

    2016-01-01

    Although England was not included in the International Instructional Systems Study because it was not a high-performing jurisdiction by the Study's definition, contributors largely were England-based. Analysing the Study's nine overall aspects of instructional systems, this paper finds that England is out of step with many of the high-performing…

  2. International Instructional Systems: How England Measures Up

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creese, Brian; Isaacs, Tina

    2016-01-01

    Although England was not included in the International Instructional Systems Study because it was not a high-performing jurisdiction by the Study's definition, contributors largely were England-based. Analysing the Study's nine overall aspects of instructional systems, this paper finds that England is out of step with many of the high-performing…

  3. "It's a complex mesh"- how large-scale health system reorganisation affected the delivery of the immunisation programme in England: a qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Chantler, Tracey; Lwembe, Saumu; Saliba, Vanessa; Raj, Thara; Mays, Nicholas; Ramsay, Mary; Mounier-Jack, Sandra

    2016-09-15

    . Partnership working helped staff adapt, but the complexity of the health system hindered the development of consistent approaches for training and service evaluation. The April 2013 health system reorganisation in England resulted in significant fragmentation in the way the immunisation programme was delivered. Some of this was a temporary by-product of organisational change, other more persistent challenges were intrinsic to the complex architecture of the new health system. Partnership working helped immunisation leaders and implementers reconnect and now the challenge is to assess how inter-agency collaboration can be strengthened.

  4. Systemic Amyloidosis in England: an epidemiological study

    PubMed Central

    Pinney, Jennifer H; Smith, Colette J; Taube, Jessi B; Lachmann, Helen J; Venner, Christopher P; Gibbs, Simon D J; Dungu, Jason; Banypersad, Sanjay M; Wechalekar, Ashutosh D; Whelan, Carol J; Hawkins, Philip N; Gillmore, Julian D

    2013-01-01

    Epidemiological studies of systemic amyloidosis are scarce and the burden of disease in England has not previously been estimated. In 1999, the National Health Service commissioned the National Amyloidosis Centre (NAC) to provide a national clinical service for all patients with amyloidosis. Data for all individuals referred to the NAC is held on a comprehensive central database, and these were compared with English death certificate data for amyloidosis from 2000 to 2008, obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Amyloidosis was stated on death certificates of 2543 individuals, representing 0·58/1000 recorded deaths. During the same period, 1143 amyloidosis patients followed at the NAC died, 903 (79%) of whom had amyloidosis recorded on their death certificates. The estimated minimum incidence of systemic amyloidosis in the English population in 2008, based on new referrals to the NAC, was 0·4/100 000 population. The incidence peaked at age 60–79 years. Systemic AL amyloidosis was the most common type with an estimated minimum incidence of 0·3/100 000 population. Although there are various limitations to this study, the available data suggest the incidence of systemic amyloidosis in England exceeds 0·8/100 000 of the population. PMID:23480608

  5. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  6. United Kingdom (England): Health system review.

    PubMed

    Boyle, Seán

    2011-01-01

    The Health Systems in Transition (HiT) profiles are country-based reports that provide a detailed description of a health system and of policy initiatives in progress or under development. HiTs examine different approaches to the organization, financing and delivery of health services and the role of the main actors in health systems; describe the institutional framework, process, content and implementation of health and health care policies; and highlight challenges and areas that require more in-depth analysis. Various indicators show that the health of the population has improved over the last few decades. However, inequalities in health across socioeconomic groups have been increasing since the 1970s. The main diseases affecting the population are circulatory diseases, cancer, diseases of the respiratory system and diseases of the digestive system. Risk factors such as the steadily rising levels of alcohol consumption, the sharp increases in adult and child obesity and prevailing smoking levels are among the most pressing public health concerns, particularly as they reflect the growing health inequalities among different socioeconomic groups. Health services in England are largely free at the point of use. The NHS provides preventive medicine, primary care and hospital services to all those ordinarily resident. Over 12% of the population is covered by voluntary health insurance schemes, known in the United Kingdom as private medical insurance (PMI), which mainly provides access to acute elective care in the private sector. Responsibility for publicly funded health care rests with the Secretary of State for Health, supported by the Department of Health. The Department operates at a regional level through 10 strategic health authorities (SHAs), which are responsible for ensuring the quality and performance of local health services within their geographic area. Responsibility for commissioning health services at the local level lies with 151 primary care

  7. Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Goldberger, Ary L.

    2006-01-01

    Physiologic systems in health and disease display an extraordinary range of temporal behaviors and structural patterns that defy understanding based on linear constructs, reductionist strategies, and classical homeostasis. Application of concepts and computational tools derived from the contemporary study of complex systems, including nonlinear dynamics, fractals and “chaos theory,” is having an increasing impact on biology and medicine. This presentation provides a brief overview of an emerging area of biomedical research, including recent applications to cardiopulmonary medicine and chronic obstructive lung disease. PMID:16921107

  8. Value-Added Measures for Schools in England: Looking inside the "Black Box" of Complex Metrics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Anthony; Downey, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Value-added measures can be used to allocate funding to schools, to identify those institutions in need of special attention and to underpin government guidance on targets. In England, there has been a tendency to include in these measures an ever-greater number of contextualising variables and to develop ever-more complex models that encourage…

  9. Racialised Norms in Apprenticeship Systems in England and Germany

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chadderton, Charlotte; Wischmann, Anke

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the issue of the under-representation of young people from minority ethnic/migrant backgrounds in apprenticeships in England and Germany. Whilst there are many studies on apprenticeships in England and Germany, few focus on under-representation or discrimination, even fewer on ethnic under-representation, and there are…

  10. Racialised Norms in Apprenticeship Systems in England and Germany

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chadderton, Charlotte; Wischmann, Anke

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the issue of the under-representation of young people from minority ethnic/migrant backgrounds in apprenticeships in England and Germany. Whilst there are many studies on apprenticeships in England and Germany, few focus on under-representation or discrimination, even fewer on ethnic under-representation, and there are…

  11. Modelling Trajectories through the Educational System in North West England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penn, Roger; Berridge, Damon

    2008-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and "A"-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS…

  12. Modelling Trajectories through the Educational System in North West England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penn, Roger; Berridge, Damon

    2008-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and "A"-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS…

  13. Spatial distributions of New England magmatic complexes, earthquakes and topographic anomalies

    SciTech Connect

    Lutz, T.M.

    1985-01-01

    Chapman (1968) proposed that the locations of magmatic complexes of the White Mountain magma series were controlled by a structural grid with NNW and E-W trends. The directions of structural control were thought to be strikingly apparent and thus no quantitative means for testing the hypothesis were proposed. The grid directions are not associated with known structures, however, and the significance of Chapman's theory cannot be investigated geologically. In this paper the hypothesis of structural control is tested by statistically analyzing the locations of the White Mountain complexes. The analysis shows that the locations of magmatic complexes do not reveal a component of structural control. The selection of a NNW grid direction was probably strongly influenced by the NNW-elongated outcrop pattern of the White Mountains. The Main coastal plutons cited by Chapman as examples of features defining a structural grid do not form a pattern significantly different from random. The results of analyses of other geophysical and topographic data will be presented to characterize further the role which structural control plays in the geology of New England. The data sets include locations of earthquake epicenters in Vermont and northeastern New York, topographic peaks in the White Mountains, and aeromagnetic anomalies in New Hampshire and Vermont.

  14. Examination of England's New Medicine Service (NMS) of complex health care interventions in community pharmacy.

    PubMed

    Latif, Asam; Waring, Justin; Watmough, Deborah; Barber, Nick; Chuter, Anthony; Davies, James; Salema, Nde-Eshimuni; Boyd, Matthew J; Elliott, Rachel A

    Community pharmacies are increasingly commissioned to deliver new, complex health interventions in response to the growing demands on family doctors and secondary health care services. Little is known about how these complex interventions are being accommodated and translated into the community pharmacy setting and whether their aims and objectives are realized in practice. The New Medicine Service (NMS) is a complex medicine management intervention that aims to support patients' adherence to newly prescribed medicines for a long-term condition. This study explores the recent implementation of the NMS in community pharmacies across England. It also seeks to understand how the service is becoming manifest in practice and what lessons can be learned for future service implementation. Structured, organizational ethnographic observations and in situ workplace interviews with pharmacists and support staff were undertaken within 23 English community pharmacies. Additionally, one-to-one, semi-structured interviews were carried out with 47 community pharmacists and 11 general practitioners (GPs). Observational and interview data were transcribed and analyzed thematically and guided by Damschroder's consolidated framework for implementation research. The NMS workload had been implemented and absorbed into pharmacists' daily routines alongside existing responsibilities with no extra resources and little evidence of reduction in other responsibilities. Pharmacists were pragmatic, simplifying, and adapting the NMS to facilitate its delivery and using discretion to circumvent perceived non-essential paperwork. Pharmacist understanding of the NMS was found to impact on what they believed should be achieved from the service. Despite pharmacists holding positive views about the value of the NMS, not all were convinced of its perceived benefits and necessity, with reports that many consultations did not identify any problems with the patients' medicines. GPs were generally

  15. Complexity in the new NHS: longitudinal case studies of CCGs in England.

    PubMed

    Checkland, Katherine; McDermott, Imelda; Coleman, Anna; Perkins, Neil

    2016-01-07

    The reform in the English National Health Services (NHS) under the Health and Social Care Act 2012 is unlike previous NHS reorganisations. The establishment of clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) was intended to be 'bottom up' with no central blueprint. This paper sets out to offer evidence about how this process has played out in practice and examines the implications of the complexity and variation which emerged. Detailed case studies in CCGs across England, using interviews, observation and documentary analysis. Using realist framework, we unpacked the complexity of CCG structures. In phase 1 of the study (January 2011 to September 2012), we conducted 96 interviews, 439 h of observation in a wide variety of meetings, 2 online surveys and 38 follow-up telephone interviews. In phase 2 (April 2013 to March 2015), we conducted 42 interviews with general practitioners (GPs) and managers and observation of 48 different types of meetings. Our study has highlighted the complexity inherent in CCGs, arising out of the relatively permissive environment in which they developed. Not only are they very different from one another in size, but also in structure, functions between different bodies and the roles played by GPs. The complexity and lack of uniformity of CCGs is important as it makes it difficult for those who must engage with CCGs to know who to approach at what level. This is of increasing importance as CCGs are moving towards greater integration across health and social care. Our study also suggests that there is little consensus as to what being a 'membership' organisation means and how it should operate. The lack of uniformity in CCG structure and lack of clarity over the meaning of 'membership' raises questions over accountability, which becomes of greater importance as CCG is taking over responsibility for primary care co-commissioning. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go

  16. Complexity in the new NHS: longitudinal case studies of CCGs in England

    PubMed Central

    Checkland, Katherine; Coleman, Anna; Perkins, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Objective The reform in the English National Health Services (NHS) under the Health and Social Care Act 2012 is unlike previous NHS reorganisations. The establishment of clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) was intended to be ‘bottom up’ with no central blueprint. This paper sets out to offer evidence about how this process has played out in practice and examines the implications of the complexity and variation which emerged. Design Detailed case studies in CCGs across England, using interviews, observation and documentary analysis. Using realist framework, we unpacked the complexity of CCG structures. Setting/participants In phase 1 of the study (January 2011 to September 2012), we conducted 96 interviews, 439 h of observation in a wide variety of meetings, 2 online surveys and 38 follow-up telephone interviews. In phase 2 (April 2013 to March 2015), we conducted 42 interviews with general practitioners (GPs) and managers and observation of 48 different types of meetings. Results Our study has highlighted the complexity inherent in CCGs, arising out of the relatively permissive environment in which they developed. Not only are they very different from one another in size, but also in structure, functions between different bodies and the roles played by GPs. Conclusions The complexity and lack of uniformity of CCGs is important as it makes it difficult for those who must engage with CCGs to know who to approach at what level. This is of increasing importance as CCGs are moving towards greater integration across health and social care. Our study also suggests that there is little consensus as to what being a ‘membership’ organisation means and how it should operate. The lack of uniformity in CCG structure and lack of clarity over the meaning of ‘membership’ raises questions over accountability, which becomes of greater importance as CCG is taking over responsibility for primary care co-commissioning. PMID:26743708

  17. Complexation of Optoelectronic Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boreisho, A. S.; Il‧in, M. Yu.; Konyaev, M. A.; Mikhailenko, A. S.; Morozov, A. V.; Strakhov, S. Yu.

    2016-05-01

    Problems of increasing the efficiency and the functionality of complex optoelectronic systems for monitoring real atmospheric conditions and of their use are discussed. It is shown by the example of a meteorological complex comprising an infrared wind-sensing lidar and an X-range Doppler radar that the complexation of probing systems working in different electromagnetic-radiation ranges opens up new opportunities for determining the meteorological parameters of a turbulent atmosphere and investigating the interaction of radiation with it.

  18. Towards a Universal Upper Secondary Education System in England: A Unified and Ecosystem Vision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodgson, Ann; Spours, Ken

    2012-01-01

    In their joint Inaugural Professorial Lecture, Hodgson and Spours argue for a universal upper secondary education system in England. Seeing the education of 14-19 year olds in this way brings considerable demands and requires a new form of critical analysis. At present English upper secondary education remains divided and a truncated experience…

  19. Privatization and Sponsorship: The Re-Agenting of the School System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hatcher, Richard

    2006-01-01

    In this article I use the concept of "re-agenting" to explore and explain the role of non-state agencies, principally private companies and business entrepreneurs, as key instruments in the government's transformation of the school system in England. Their role takes both for-profit and not-for-profit forms. The outsourcing to private…

  20. Privatization and Sponsorship: The Re-Agenting of the School System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hatcher, Richard

    2006-01-01

    In this article I use the concept of "re-agenting" to explore and explain the role of non-state agencies, principally private companies and business entrepreneurs, as key instruments in the government's transformation of the school system in England. Their role takes both for-profit and not-for-profit forms. The outsourcing to private…

  1. COMPLEXITY IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The enormous complexity of ecosystems is generally obvious under even the most cursory examination. In the modern world, this complexity is further augmented by the linkage of ecosystems to economic and social systems through the human use of the environment for technological pu...

  2. COMPLEXITY IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The enormous complexity of ecosystems is generally obvious under even the most cursory examination. In the modern world, this complexity is further augmented by the linkage of ecosystems to economic and social systems through the human use of the environment for technological pu...

  3. Complexity: against systems.

    PubMed

    Chu, Dominique

    2011-09-01

    This article assumes a specific intuitive notion of complexity as a difficulty to generate and/or assess the plausibility of models. Based on this intuitive understanding of complexity, it identifies two main causes of complexity, namely, radical openness and contextuality. The former is the idea that there are no natural systems. The modeler always needs to draw artificial boundaries around phenomena to generate feasible models. Contextuality is intimately connected to the requirement to simplify models and to leave out most aspects. Complexity occurs when contextuality and radical openness cannot be contained that is when it is not clear where the boundaries of the system are and which abstractions are the correct ones. This concept of complexity is illustrated using a number of example from evolution.

  4. The Complex Determinants of School Intake Characteristics and Segregation, England 1989 to 2014

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The extent of between-school segregation, or clustering of disadvantaged students within schools, in England varies depending on the indicator of interest. For example, the trend over time for segregation by student poverty differs from those for ethnicity or special educational need. Additionally the causes of the level of segregation for any…

  5. The Dark Figure of Infanticide in England and Wales: Complexities of Diagnosis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookman, Fiona; Nolan, Jane

    2006-01-01

    Infants aged younger than 12 months have the highest homicide victimization rate of any single age group in England and Wales. In addition, there are good grounds for believing that the official homicide statistics for this particular age group are an underestimate and subject to distortion. At the same time there is evidence mounting in the…

  6. The Complex Determinants of School Intake Characteristics and Segregation, England 1989 to 2014

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The extent of between-school segregation, or clustering of disadvantaged students within schools, in England varies depending on the indicator of interest. For example, the trend over time for segregation by student poverty differs from those for ethnicity or special educational need. Additionally the causes of the level of segregation for any…

  7. The Dark Figure of Infanticide in England and Wales: Complexities of Diagnosis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookman, Fiona; Nolan, Jane

    2006-01-01

    Infants aged younger than 12 months have the highest homicide victimization rate of any single age group in England and Wales. In addition, there are good grounds for believing that the official homicide statistics for this particular age group are an underestimate and subject to distortion. At the same time there is evidence mounting in the…

  8. A comparison of substance dependence treatment information system in America, England, and Iran.

    PubMed

    Ajami, Sima; Mellat-Karkevandi, Zahra; Saghaeiannejad-Isfahani, Sakineh; Salehi, Mehrdad; Jahanbakhsh, Maryam

    2014-01-01

    Addiction, as a social problem, is a phenomenon that causes structural changes in cultural, social, political, and economic system in society. Prevention of this problem means decrease of risk factors and increase of protective factors; and recognition of these factors is possible with the help of update, accurate, and complete information in information systems. The aim of this study was to compare substance dependence treatment information system (SDTIS) in America, England, and Iran. This research was an applied and comparison-descriptive study, in which SDTIS was compared in America, England, and Iran. These countries were chosen based on available information on the Internet and also on the development of these countries in the health information management field. Information resources included library resources, electronic resources, and expert people (Health Information Management, Medical Records Education, Psychologist, Psychiatrist, and Medical Informatics). The data collection tool was the data raw form, whose reliability was proved by expert people. Findings were analyzed by theory and descriptive method. America and England had the SDTIS. Their systems had special characteristics such as goals, scope, special method for collecting, processing, reporting, quality and validity control, and confidentiality principles. However, there was no such system in Iran and the present situation in Iran has many differences with similar situations in the studied countries. Presence of an information system in the substance dependence treatment field helps to prevent, control, and treat addicted people. Hence, we try to submit a suitable model for implementing this system.

  9. Complexity in Dynamical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Cristopher David

    The study of chaos has shown us that deterministic systems can have a kind of unpredictability, based on a limited knowledge of their initial conditions; after a finite time, the motion appears essentially random. This observation has inspired a general interest in the subject of unpredictability, and more generally, complexity; how can we characterize how "complex" a dynamical system is?. In this thesis, we attempt to answer this question with a paradigm of complexity that comes from computer science, we extract sets of symbol sequences, or languages, from a dynamical system using standard methods of symbolic dynamics; we then ask what kinds of grammars or automata are needed a generate these languages. This places them in the Chomsky heirarchy, which in turn tells us something about how subtle and complex the dynamical system's behavior is. This gives us insight into the question of unpredictability, since these automata can also be thought of as computers attempting to predict the system. In the culmination of the thesis, we find a class of smooth, two-dimensional maps which are equivalent to the highest class in the Chomsky heirarchy, the turning machine; they are capable of universal computation. Therefore, these systems possess a kind of unpredictability qualitatively different from the usual "chaos": even if the initial conditions are known exactly, questions about the system's long-term dynamics are undecidable. No algorithm exists to answer them. Although this kind of unpredictability has been discussed in the context of distributed, many-degree-of -freedom systems (for instance, cellular automata) we believe this is the first example of such phenomena in a smooth, finite-degree-of-freedom system.

  10. Observability of complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yang-Yu; Slotine, Jean-Jacques; Barabási, Albert-László

    2013-01-01

    A quantitative description of a complex system is inherently limited by our ability to estimate the system’s internal state from experimentally accessible outputs. Although the simultaneous measurement of all internal variables, like all metabolite concentrations in a cell, offers a complete description of a system’s state, in practice experimental access is limited to only a subset of variables, or sensors. A system is called observable if we can reconstruct the system’s complete internal state from its outputs. Here, we adopt a graphical approach derived from the dynamical laws that govern a system to determine the sensors that are necessary to reconstruct the full internal state of a complex system. We apply this approach to biochemical reaction systems, finding that the identified sensors are not only necessary but also sufficient for observability. The developed approach can also identify the optimal sensors for target or partial observability, helping us reconstruct selected state variables from appropriately chosen outputs, a prerequisite for optimal biomarker design. Given the fundamental role observability plays in complex systems, these results offer avenues to systematically explore the dynamics of a wide range of natural, technological and socioeconomic systems. PMID:23359701

  11. Product Diversity and Spectrum of Choice in Hospital ePrescribing Systems in England

    PubMed Central

    Mozaffar, Hajar; Williams, Robin; Cresswell, Kathrin; Morison, Zoe; Slee, Ann; Team, Aziz Sheikh; Coleman, Jamie; Bates, David W.; Robertson, Ann; Avery, Tony; Blake, Laurence; Chuter, Antony; Slight, Sarah P.; Girling, Alan; Lee, Lisa; Lilford, Richard; McCloughan, Lucy; Schofield, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Background ePrescribing systems have considerable potential for improving healthcare quality and safety. With growing expectations about the benefits of such systems, there is evidence of widespread plans to implement these systems in hospitals in England where hitherto they have had a low uptake. Given the international drive away from developing home-grown to systems to procuring commercial applications, we aimed to identify available ePrescribing systems in England and to use the findings to develop a taxonomy of the systems offered by suppliers. Methods and Findings We undertook a scoping review of the published and grey literature, and conducted expert interviews with vendors, healthcare organisations and national ePrescribing experts in order to identify the spectrum of available systems, identify and map their key features, and then iteratively develop and validate a taxonomy of commercial ePrescribing systems available to English hospitals. There is a wide range of available systems including 13 hospital-wide applications and a range of specialty systems. These commercial applications can be grouped into four sub-categories: standalone systems, modules within integrated systems, functionalities spread over several modules, and specialty systems. The findings also reveal that apart from four packaged applications (two of which are specialty systems), all other systems have none or less than two live implementations across England. Conclusions The wide range of products developed in the last few years by different national and international suppliers, and the low uptake of these products by English hospitals indicate that the English ePrescribing market is still in its infancy. This market is undergoing rapid cycles of change, both with respect to the number of suppliers and their diversity of offerings. Constant renewal of knowledge is needed on the status of this evolving market, encompassing the products development and adoption, to assist implementation

  12. Managing Complex Dynamical Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, John C.; Webster, Robert L.; Curry, Jeanie A.; Hammond, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Management commonly engages in a variety of research designed to provide insight into the motivation and relationships of individuals, departments, organizations, etc. This paper demonstrates how the application of concepts associated with the analysis of complex systems applied to such data sets can yield enhanced insights for managerial action.

  13. Complexity, Systems, and Software

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-14

    2014 Carnegie Mellon University Complexity, Systems, and Software Software Engineering Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA...NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Software Engineering Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 8...for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States

  14. User's Manual for the New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Horn, Marilee A.

    2003-01-01

    Water is used in a variety of ways that need to be understood for effective management of water resources. Water-use activities need to be categorized and included in a database management system to understand current water uses and to provide information to water-resource management policy decisionmakers. The New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS) is a complex database developed to store water-use information that allows water to be tracked from a point of water-use activity (called a 'Site'), such as withdrawal from a resource (reservoir or aquifer), to a second Site, such as distribution to a user (business or irrigator). NEWUDS conceptual model consists of 10 core entities: system, owner, address, location, site, data source, resource, conveyance, transaction/rate, and alias, with tables available to store user-defined details. Three components--site (with both a From Site and a To Site), a conveyance that connects them, and a transaction/rate associated with the movement of water over a specific time interval form the core of the basic NEWUDS network model. The most important step in correctly translating real-world water-use activities into a storable format in NEWUDS depends on choosing the appropriate sites and linking them correctly in a network to model the flow of water from the initial From Site to the final To Site. Ten water-use networks representing real-world activities are described--three withdrawal networks, three return networks, two user networks, two complex community-system networks. Ten case studies of water use, one for each network, also are included in this manual to illustrate how to compile, store, and retrieve the appropriate data. The sequence of data entry into tables is critical because there are many foreign keys. The recommended core entity sequence is (1) system, (2) owner, (3) address, (4) location, (5) site, (6) data source, (7) resource, (8) conveyance, (9) transaction, and (10) rate; with (11) alias and (12) user

  15. Schisms in the church: National Health Service systems and institutional divergence in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Hughes, David; Vincent-Jones, Peter

    2008-12-01

    Since devolution, the four countries of the United Kingdom have pursued strikingly different National Health Service (NHS) reforms. While England created a supply-side market more radical than the previous internal market system, Wales moved to a softer version of the purchaser/provider split emphasizing localism. This article deploys institutional theory to analyze the forces shaping change, and describes the hybrid forms of economic organization emerging, including the economic regulation model implemented in England. The schism that has resulted in separate NHS subsystems warrants a different analysis from the more familiar phenomenon of infield divergence. We argue that schism was triggered by political-regulatory influences rather than economic or other social institutional forces, and predict that other decentralized public health care systems may follow a similar path. While political-regulatory, normative, and cognitive institutional influences push in the same direction in Wales, the misalignment of political-regulatory and normative elements in England looks set to result in a period of organizational turbulence.

  16. Towards a Totalitarian Education System in England: Looking at the Academy Question in a Longer Policy Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newsam, Peter

    2013-01-01

    In this opinion piece, the author writes that England is now well on the way to having the most totalitarian as well as one of the most inefficiently managed schools system in Europe. He states that in the much maligned 1960s, people came from all over the world to learn from what was being achieved in the best of England's publicly-funded, local…

  17. National Case-Studies. England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClelland, Vincent Alan

    1993-01-01

    Presents a discussion of the role of educational research in teacher education in England, looking at its recent history, examining the effects of England's new national curriculum, and discussing the politics of change in the English educational system. (SM)

  18. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  19. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the pig health monitoring systems used in England.

    PubMed

    Stärk, K D C; Nevel, A

    2009-10-17

    Several systems are being used in England to record information about the health of pigs. The British Pig Health Scheme (BPHS), the National Animal Disease Information System (NADIS), the Zoonoses Action Plan (ZAP) for Salmonella and the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) system have been assessed to make recommendations for their future separate or joint development. The structure, organisation, processes, data quality, dissemination, utilisation and acceptance of each system have been assessed. Information was extracted from documents and websites, and informal interviews were conducted with technical experts and stakeholders. The systems covered a broad range of objectives, used variable approaches and operated at very different scales and budgets. There was a high level of awareness and involvement by the industry. Common weaknesses of the systems were the lack of in-depth quantitative analysis of the data, the lack of assessment of each system's impact, and the unknown level of bias as a result of the voluntary or selective participation in them.

  20. Education in a Multicultural Environment: Equity Issues in Teaching and Learning in the School System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyle, Bill; Charles, Marie

    2011-01-01

    The paper focuses on the auditing and accountancy paradigm that has dominated educational measurement of pupil performance for the last 20 years in England. The advocates of this minimum competency paradigm do not take account of the results of its dominance. These results include ignoring the heterogeneous complexity of groups within societies…

  1. Mesozoic igneous intrusions in New England and Quebec: Implications from lead (Pb) isotopes on petrogenesis and mantle sources (Ascutney Mountain, Vermont; Mont Saint Hilaire, Quebec; Pliny Complex, New Hampshire)

    SciTech Connect

    Schucker, D.E.

    1992-01-01

    Lead isotopes are used to study Mesozoic intrusions from New England and Quebec, specifically the igneous complexes of Ascutney Mountain (Vermont), Mont Saint Hilaire (Quebec), and Pliny (New Hampshire). The main objectives are to address the: (1) petrogenesis of specific complexes using Pb isotopes along with previous results; and (2) sources of parental magmas in the context of a possible plume source for the Cretaceous intrusions and New England Seamounts. Analytical procedures for Pb and U are also described in detail. For each of the three complexes, significant variation in apparent initial [sup 208]Pb/[sup 204]Pb, [sup 207]Pb/[sup 204]Pb, and [sup 206]Pb/[sup 204]Pb ratios are observed. These variations reflect crustal contamination and local country rocks are isotopically suitable contaminants. Contamination lowers the Pb isotopic ratios of the modified magmas. The Pb ratios of the parental magmas are constrained by defining trends resulting from crustal contamination. At the Ascutney complex, granites appear to be uniform at the time of formation based on feldspar results. Granite whole rocks exhibit open system U-Pb behavior which is attributed to significant recent U loss (of up to 38%). Both local schists and gneisses are important contaminants with generally <25% contamination. Significant isotopic variations are apparent at Mont Saint Hilaire where rock-feldspar variations are apparently not in isotopic equilibrium. Feldspars reflect magmatic values and indicate crustal contamination of a parental magma for the Hilaire complex. A limited data set for the Pliny complex suggests a parental magma. The Pb results support a common mantle source for the Cretaceous continental intrusions (Ascutney and Mont Saint Hilaire) and the New England Seamounts. They imply magma from a sublithospheric mantle-plume, and that magmas ascended with little or no lithospheric interaction. The magma source for the Jurassic Pliny complex appears to be different.

  2. Taxonomic review of the Ornithocheirus complex (Pterosauria) from the Cretaceous of England.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Taissa; Kellner, Alexander Wilhelm Armin

    2013-01-01

    Over a decade after the last major review of the Cambridge Greensand pterosaurs, their systematics remains one of the most disputed points in pterosaur taxonomy. Ornithocheiridae is still a wastebasket for fragmentary taxa, and some nomenclatural issues are still a problem. Here, the species from the Cretaceous of England that, at some point, were referred in Ornithocheirus, are reviewed. Investigation of the primary literature confirmed that Criorhynchus should be considered an objective junior synonym of Ornithocheirus. Taxonomic review of more than 30 species known from fragmentary remains showed that 16 of them are undiagnosable (nomina dubia): Palaeornis cliftii, Cimoliornis diomedeus, Pterodactylus compressirostris, Pterodactylus fittoni, Pterodactylus woodwardi, Ornithocheirus brachyrhinus, Ornithocheirus carteri, Ornithocheirus crassidens, Ornithocheirus dentatus, Ornithocheirus enchorhynchus, Ornithocheirus eurygnathus, Ornithocheirus oxyrhinus, Ornithocheirus scaphorhynchus, Ornithocheirus tenuirostris, Ornithocheirus xyphorhynchus, and Pterodactylus sagittirostris. Fourteen species are considered valid, and diagnoses are provided to all of them: Ornithocheirus simus, Lonchodraco giganteus comb. n., Lonchodraco machaerorhynchus comb. n., Lonchodraco(?) microdon comb. n., Coloborhynchus clavirostris, 'Ornithocheirus' capito, Camposipterus nasutus comb. n., Camposipterus(?) sedgwickii comb. n., Camposipterus(?) colorhinus comb. n., Cimoliopterus cuvieri comb. n., 'Ornithocheirus' polyodon, 'Ornithocheirus' platystomus, 'Pterodactylus' daviesii, and 'Ornithocheirus' denticulatus. These species are referred in the genera Ornithocheirus, Lonchodraco gen. n., Coloborhynchus, Cimoliopterus gen. n., and Camposipterus gen. n., but additional genera are probably present, as indicated by the use of single quotation marks throughout the text. A cladistic analysis demonstrates that Anhangueridae lies within a newly recognized clade, here named Anhangueria, which also

  3. Taxonomic review of the Ornithocheirus complex (Pterosauria) from the Cretaceous of England

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Taissa; Kellner, Alexander Wilhelm Armin

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Over a decade after the last major review of the Cambridge Greensand pterosaurs, their systematics remains one of the most disputed points in pterosaur taxonomy. Ornithocheiridae is still a wastebasket for fragmentary taxa, and some nomenclatural issues are still a problem. Here, the species from the Cretaceous of England that, at some point, were referred in Ornithocheirus, are reviewed. Investigation of the primary literature confirmed that Criorhynchus should be considered an objective junior synonym of Ornithocheirus. Taxonomic review of more than 30 species known from fragmentary remains showed that 16 of them are undiagnosable (nomina dubia): Palaeornis cliftii, Cimoliornis diomedeus, Pterodactylus compressirostris, Pterodactylus fittoni, Pterodactylus woodwardi, Ornithocheirus brachyrhinus, Ornithocheirus carteri, Ornithocheirus crassidens, Ornithocheirus dentatus, Ornithocheirus enchorhynchus, Ornithocheirus eurygnathus, Ornithocheirus oxyrhinus, Ornithocheirus scaphorhynchus, Ornithocheirus tenuirostris, Ornithocheirus xyphorhynchus, and Pterodactylus sagittirostris. Fourteen species are considered valid, and diagnoses are provided to all of them: Ornithocheirus simus, Lonchodraco giganteus comb. n., Lonchodraco machaerorhynchus comb. n., Lonchodraco(?) microdon comb. n., Coloborhynchus clavirostris, ‘Ornithocheirus’ capito, Camposipterus nasutus comb. n., Camposipterus(?) sedgwickii comb. n., Camposipterus(?) colorhinus comb. n., Cimoliopterus cuvieri comb. n., ‘Ornithocheirus’ polyodon, ‘Ornithocheirus’ platystomus, ‘Pterodactylus’ daviesii, and ‘Ornithocheirus’ denticulatus. These species are referred in the genera Ornithocheirus, Lonchodraco gen. n., Coloborhynchus, Cimoliopterus gen. n., and Camposipterus gen. n., but additional genera are probably present, as indicated by the use of single quotation marks throughout the text. A cladistic analysis demonstrates that Anhangueridae lies within a newly recognized clade, here

  4. The implications of e-health system delivery strategies for integrated healthcare: lessons from England.

    PubMed

    Eason, Ken; Waterson, Patrick

    2013-05-01

    This paper explores the implications that different technical strategies for sharing patient information have for healthcare workers and, as a consequence, for the extent to which these systems provide support for integrated care. Four technical strategies were identified and the forms of coupling they made with healthcare agencies were classified. A study was conducted in England to examine the human and organizational implications of systems implemented by these four strategies. Results were used from evaluation reports of two systems delivered as part of the NPfIT (National Programme for Information Technology) and from user responses to systems delivered in two local health communities in England. In the latter study 40 clinical respondents reported the use of systems to support integrated care in six healthcare pathways. The implementation of a detailed care record system (DCRS) in the NPfIT was problematic because it could not meet the diverse needs of all healthcare agencies and it required considerable local customization. The programme evolved to allow different systems to be delivered for each local health community. A national Summary Care Record (SCR) was implemented but many concerns were raised about wide access to confidential patient information. The two technical strategies that required looser forms of coupling and were under local control led to wide user adoption. The systems that enabled data to be transferred between local systems were successfully used to support integrated care in specific healthcare pathways. The portal approach gave many users an opportunity to view patient data held on a number of databases and this system evolved over a number of years as a result of requests from the user community. The UK national strategy to deliver single shared database systems requires tight coupling between many users and has led to poor adoption because of the diverse needs of healthcare agencies. Sharing patient information has been more

  5. Waves in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Hang

    The theme of this thesis is the study of wave phenomena in complex systems. In particular, the following three topics constitute the foci of my research. The first topic involves the generalization of an electronic transport mechanism commonly observed in disordered media, fluctuation induced tunneling conduction, by considering tunneling through not just insulating potential barriers, but also narrow conducting channels. Here the wave nature of the electron implies that a narrow conduction channel can act as an electronic waveguide, with a cutoff transverse dimension that is half the Fermi wavelength. My research involves the study of electronic transport through finite-length conducting channels with transverse dimensions below the cutoff. Such narrow conduction channel may be physically realized by chains of single conducting atoms, for example. At small voltage bias across the conduction channel, only tunneling transport is possible at zero temperature. But at finite temperatures some of the electrons with energies above the Fermi level can ballistically transport across the channel. By considering both tunneling and thermal activation mechanisms, with thermally-generated (random) voltage bias across the narrow channel, we obtained a temperature-dependent conductivity behavior that is in good agreement with the measured two-lead conductance of RuO2 and IrO2 nanowires. Furthermore, by considering high applied voltage across the nano conduction channels, our model predicts interesting electronic Fabry-Perot behavior whose experimental verification is presently underway. The second topic involves the study of the Hall effect in mesoscopic samples. In particular, we are interested in the possibility of enhancing the Hall effect by nano-patterning samples of 2D electron gas. Through numerical solution of the Schrodinger equation in the presence of a magnetic field, mesoscopic transport behavior is obtained for samples with given geometric patterns of the

  6. Imagining School Autonomy in High-Performing Education Systems: East Asia as a Source of Policy Referencing in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    You, Yun; Morris, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Education reform is increasingly based on emulating the features of "world-class" systems that top international attainment surveys and, in England specifically, East Asia is referenced as the "inspiration" for their education reforms. However, the extent to which the features identified by the UK Government accord with the…

  7. Deconstructing the Carter Review: Competing Conceptions of Quality in England's "School-Led" System of Initial Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mutton, Trevor; Burn, Katharine; Menter, Ian

    2017-01-01

    The commitment to establish a "school-led" system of teacher education in England, announced by the Coalition Government in 2011 and relentlessly pursued thereafter, represented a radical departure from previous kinds of initial teacher education partnership. While it is entirely consistent with a neoliberal agenda, with its strong…

  8. Ethnic Inequality in Choice-Driven Education Systems: A Longitudinal Study of Performance and Choice in England and Sweden

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Michelle; Jonsson, Jan O.; Rudolphi, Frida

    2012-01-01

    The authors ask whether choice-driven education systems, with comprehensive schools and mass education at the secondary and tertiary level, represented in this article by England and Sweden, provide educational opportunities for ethnic minorities. In studying educational attainment, the authors make a theoretical distinction between mechanisms…

  9. Deconstructing the Carter Review: Competing Conceptions of Quality in England's "School-Led" System of Initial Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mutton, Trevor; Burn, Katharine; Menter, Ian

    2017-01-01

    The commitment to establish a "school-led" system of teacher education in England, announced by the Coalition Government in 2011 and relentlessly pursued thereafter, represented a radical departure from previous kinds of initial teacher education partnership. While it is entirely consistent with a neoliberal agenda, with its strong…

  10. Heterogeneity of organic matter distribution in relation to a transgressive systems tract: Kimmeridge Clay (Jurassic), England

    SciTech Connect

    Herbin, J.P.; Muller, C. ); Geyssant, J.; Melieres, F.; Penn, I.

    1991-03-01

    The Kimmeridge clay has been drilled in four continuously cored boreholes put down to sample the organic carbon content of the formation. Three of them sited in the Cleveland basin (Yorkshire) prove over 200 m of strata ranging from Mutabilis to Pectinatus zones; the fourth, completing a 35 km transect, proves the lower part of the Kimmeridge clay of the thinner Eastern England shelf. The results show the total organic carbon content (TOC) increasing by 50% when traced from shelf into the basin where deeper bathymetry and more rapid sedimentation have favored preservation of organic matter. The study of stratigraphical variation of % TOC enables evaluation of fundamental problems of these cycles in which organic matter is one of the major constituents. Such cycles exist throughout the Jurassic and Lower-Middle Cretaceous sequences but a transgressive systems tract such as that of the Kimmeridgian Stage enables the phenomenon to be studied in detail.

  11. Complex Digital Visual Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweeny, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    This article identifies possibilities for data visualization as art educational research practice. The author presents an analysis of the relationship between works of art and digital visual culture, employing aspects of network analysis drawn from the work of Barabási, Newman, and Watts (2006) and Castells (1994). Describing complex network…

  12. Complex Digital Visual Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweeny, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    This article identifies possibilities for data visualization as art educational research practice. The author presents an analysis of the relationship between works of art and digital visual culture, employing aspects of network analysis drawn from the work of Barabási, Newman, and Watts (2006) and Castells (1994). Describing complex network…

  13. Competitive Electricity Markets and System Reliability: The Case for New England's Proposed Locational Capacity Market

    SciTech Connect

    Farr, John G.; Felder, Frank A.

    2005-10-01

    Clear evidence exists that the existing wholesale markets in New England are failing to provide sufficient incentives to invest. The ISO-NE LICAP proposal is designed to ensure that New England markets attract sufficient generation resources to protect reliability while being mindful of the added cost burden that it will produce.

  14. Lessons for major system change: centralization of stroke services in two metropolitan areas of England

    PubMed Central

    Ramsay, Angus; Perry, Catherine; Boaden, Ruth; McKevitt, Christopher; Morris, Stephen; Pursani, Nanik; Rudd, Anthony; Tyrrell, Pippa; Wolfe, Charles; Fulop, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Our aim was to identify the factors influencing the selection of a model of acute stroke service centralization to create fewer high-volume specialist units in two metropolitan areas of England (London and Greater Manchester). It considers the reasons why services were more fully centralized in London than in Greater Manchester. Methods In both areas, we analysed 316 documents and conducted 45 interviews with people leading transformation, service user organizations, providers and commissioners. Inductive and deductive analyses were used to compare the processes underpinning change in each area, with reference to propositions for achieving major system change taken from a realist review of the existing literature (the Best framework), which we critique and develop further. Results In London, system leadership was used to overcome resistance to centralization and align stakeholders to implement a centralized service model. In Greater Manchester, programme leaders relied on achieving change by consensus and, lacking decision-making authority over providers, accommodated rather than challenged resistance by implementing a less radical transformation of services. Conclusions A combination of system (top-down) and distributed (bottom-up) leadership is important in enabling change. System leadership provides the political authority required to coordinate stakeholders and to capitalize on clinical leadership by aligning it with transformation goals. Policy makers should examine how the structures of system authority, with performance management and financial levers, can be employed to coordinate transformation by aligning the disparate interests of providers and commissioners. PMID:26811375

  15. Lessons for major system change: centralization of stroke services in two metropolitan areas of England.

    PubMed

    Turner, Simon; Ramsay, Angus; Perry, Catherine; Boaden, Ruth; McKevitt, Christopher; Morris, Stephen; Pursani, Nanik; Rudd, Anthony; Tyrrell, Pippa; Wolfe, Charles; Fulop, Naomi

    2016-07-01

    Our aim was to identify the factors influencing the selection of a model of acute stroke service centralization to create fewer high-volume specialist units in two metropolitan areas of England (London and Greater Manchester). It considers the reasons why services were more fully centralized in London than in Greater Manchester. In both areas, we analysed 316 documents and conducted 45 interviews with people leading transformation, service user organizations, providers and commissioners. Inductive and deductive analyses were used to compare the processes underpinning change in each area, with reference to propositions for achieving major system change taken from a realist review of the existing literature (the Best framework), which we critique and develop further. In London, system leadership was used to overcome resistance to centralization and align stakeholders to implement a centralized service model. In Greater Manchester, programme leaders relied on achieving change by consensus and, lacking decision-making authority over providers, accommodated rather than challenged resistance by implementing a less radical transformation of services. A combination of system (top-down) and distributed (bottom-up) leadership is important in enabling change. System leadership provides the political authority required to coordinate stakeholders and to capitalize on clinical leadership by aligning it with transformation goals. Policy makers should examine how the structures of system authority, with performance management and financial levers, can be employed to coordinate transformation by aligning the disparate interests of providers and commissioners. © The Author(s) 2016.

  16. Assessing the safety features of electronic patient medication record systems used in community pharmacies in England.

    PubMed

    Ojeleye, Oluwagbemileke; Avery, Anthony J; Boyd, Matthew J

    2014-08-01

    To evaluate the ability of electronic patient medication record (ePMR) systems used in community pharmacies in England to detect and alert users about clinical hazards, errors and other safety problems. Between September 2012 and November 2012, direct on-site observational data about the performance of ePMR systems were collected from nine sites. Twenty-eight scenarios were developed by consensus agreement between a general practitioner and two community pharmacists. Each scenario was entered into the ePMR system, and the results obtained from the assessment of six unique systems in nine sites, in terms of the presence or absence of an alert, were recorded onto a prespecified form. None of the systems produced the correct responses for all of the 28 scenarios tested. Only two systems provided an alert to penicillin sensitivity. No dose or frequency check was observed when processing a prescription for methotrexate. One system did not warn about nonsuitability of aspirin prescribed to a child of 14 years of age. In another system, it was not possible to record a patient's pregnancy status. None of the six systems provided any warning for diclofenac overdose, high initiation dose of morphine sulfate or significant dose increase. Only one of the systems did not produce any spurious alerts. The performance of the ePMR systems tested was variable and suboptimal. The findings suggest the need for minimum specifications and standards for ePMR systems to ensure consistency of performance. © 2014 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The British Pharmacological Society.

  17. [Health: an adaptive complex system].

    PubMed

    Toro-Palacio, Luis Fernando; Ochoa-Jaramillo, Francisco Luis

    2012-02-01

    This article points out the enormous gap that exists between complex thinking of an intellectual nature currently present in our environment, and complex experimental thinking that has facilitated the scientific and technological advances that have radically changed the world. The article suggests that life, human beings, global society, and all that constitutes health be considered as adaptive complex systems. This idea, in turn, prioritizes the adoption of a different approach that seeks to expand understanding. When this rationale is recognized, the principal characteristics and emerging properties of health as an adaptive complex system are sustained, following a care and services delivery model. Finally, some pertinent questions from this perspective are put forward in terms of research, and a series of appraisals are expressed that will hopefully serve to help us understand all that we have become as individuals and as a species. The article proposes that the delivery of health care services be regarded as an adaptive complex system.

  18. The complexity of anatomical systems

    PubMed Central

    Grizzi, Fabio; Chiriva-Internati, Maurizio

    2005-01-01

    Background The conception of anatomical entities as a hierarchy of infinitely graduated forms and the increase in the number of observed anatomical sub-entities and structural variables has generated a growing complexity, thus highlighting new properties of organised biological matter. Results (1) Complexity is so pervasive in the anatomical world that it has come to be considered as a primary characteristic of anatomical systems. (2) Anatomical entities, when viewed at microscopic as well as macroscopic level of observation, show a different degree of complexity. (3) Complexity can reside in the structure of the anatomical system (having many diverse parts with varying interactions or an intricate architecture) or in its behaviour. Often complexity in structure and behaviour go together. (4) Complex systems admit many descriptions (ways of looking at the system) each of which is only partially true. Each way of looking at a complex system requires its own description, its own mode of analysis and its own breaking down of the system in different parts; (5) Almost all the anatomical entities display hierarchical forms: their component structures at different spatial scales or their process at different time scales are related to each other. Conclusion The need to find a new way of observing and measuring anatomical entities, and objectively quantifying their different structural changes, prompted us to investigate the non-Euclidean geometries and the theories of complexity, and to apply their concepts to human anatomy. This attempt has led us to reflect upon the complex significance of the shape of an observed anatomical entity. Its changes have been defined in relation to variations in its status: from a normal (i.e. natural) to a pathological or altered state introducing the concepts of kinematics and dynamics of anatomical forms, speed of their changes, and that of scale of their observation. PMID:16029490

  19. New hospital payment systems: comparing medical strategies in The Netherlands, Germany and England.

    PubMed

    van Essen, Anne Marije

    2009-01-01

    This paper seeks to identify different medical strategies adopted in relation to the new hospital payment systems in Germany, The Netherlands and England and analyse how the medical strategies have impacted on the emergence of these New Public Management policy tools between 2002 and 2007. A comparative approach is applied. In addition to secondary sources, the study uses publications in professional journals, official publications of the (national) physician organisations and a (non-random) expert questionnaire to obtain the views of the medical corporate bodies in the three countries. The results reveal differences in the medical strategies in the three countries that point towards the significance of institutional and interest configurations. The Dutch corporate medical body was most willing to solve the conflict, while the German and English corporate medical bodies seem to be keen to use a strategy of confrontation. The differences in medical strategies also impact on the ways in which hospital payment systems have emerged in the three countries. Further research is necessary to study the medical strategies in healthcare reforms from a broader perspective, for instance by including other countries. The paper gives insights into the interplay between the medical profession and the government in the context of new managerial governance practices in the hospital sector. It adds to the scholarly debates about the role of the medical profession in health policy-making.

  20. Challenges in complex systems science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    San Miguel, M.; Johnson, J. H.; Kertesz, J.; Kaski, K.; Díaz-Guilera, A.; MacKay, R. S.; Loreto, V.; Érdi, P.; Helbing, D.

    2012-11-01

    FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda.

  1. Lost in translation? Theory, policy and practice in systems-based environmental approaches to obesity prevention in the Healthy Towns programme in England.

    PubMed

    Sautkina, Elena; Goodwin, Denise; Jones, Andy; Ogilvie, David; Petticrew, Mark; White, Martin; Cummins, Steven

    2014-09-01

    This paper explores how system-wide approaches to obesity prevention were 'theorised' and translated into practice in the 'Healthy Towns' programme implemented in nine areas in England. Semi-structured interviews with 20 informants, purposively selected to represent national and local programme development, management and delivery were undertaken. Results suggest that informants articulated a theoretical understanding of a system-wide approach to obesity prevention, but simplifying this complex task in the context of uncertainty over programme aims and objectives, and absence of a clear direction from the central government, resulted in local programmes relying on traditional multi-component approaches to programme delivery. The development of clear, practical guidance on implementation should form a central part of future system-wide approaches to obesity prevention.

  2. Complex systems: physics beyond physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holovatch, Yurij; Kenna, Ralph; Thurner, Stefan

    2017-03-01

    Complex systems are characterised by specific time-dependent interactions among their many constituents. As a consequence they often manifest rich, non-trivial and unexpected behaviour. Examples arise both in the physical and non-physical worlds. The study of complex systems forms a new interdisciplinary research area that cuts across physics, biology, ecology, economics, sociology, and the humanities. In this paper we review the essence of complex systems from a physicists' point of view, and try to clarify what makes them conceptually different from systems that are traditionally studied in physics. Our goal is to demonstrate how the dynamics of such systems may be conceptualised in quantitative and predictive terms by extending notions from statistical physics and how they can often be captured in a framework of co-evolving multiplex network structures. We mention three areas of complex-systems science that are currently studied extensively, the science of cities, dynamics of societies, and the representation of texts as evolutionary objects. We discuss why these areas form complex systems in the above sense. We argue that there exists plenty of new ground for physicists to explore and that methodical and conceptual progress is needed most.

  3. Diversion of mentally disordered people from the criminal justice system in England and Wales: An overview.

    PubMed

    James, David V

    2010-01-01

    The form that diversion mechanisms take in a given jurisdiction will be influenced both by mental health law and sentencing policies, and by the structure of criminal justice and health care systems. In England and Wales, treatment in hospital in lieu of any other sentence is available as a disposal option following a finding of guilt. In addition, there is a National Health Service, free at the point of delivery, the existence of which creates the potential for a co-ordinated nationwide response to mental disorder within the criminal justice system. In recent years, the National Health Service has taken over the delivery of health care in prisons, including psychiatric services, with the principle being one of equivalence between the quality of health provision provided in the community and that provided in prisons. However, problems within the system dictate that an important place remains for add-on diversion initiatives at courts and police stations, which aim to circumvent some of the delays in dealing with mentally disordered people or to prevent them entering the criminal justice system in the first place. It has been demonstrated that such mechanisms can be highly effective, and a government-sponsored review in 1992 recommended their general adoption. A lack of central co-ordination determined that progress was very slow. A new government-commissioned report in 2009 set out detailed recommendations for reform throughout the system. It laid emphasis on a co-ordinated response at all levels and between all agencies, and placed importance on linking initiatives with community services and with preventative measures, including attention to the effects of social exclusion. Some grounds for optimism exist, although there are particular problems in implementing change at a time of financial austerity.

  4. Hybrid estimation of complex systems.

    PubMed

    Hofbaur, Michael W; Williams, Brian C

    2004-10-01

    Modern automated systems evolve both continuously and discretely, and hence require estimation techniques that go well beyond the capability of a typical Kalman Filter. Multiple model (MM) estimation schemes track these system evolutions by applying a bank of filters, one for each discrete system mode. Modern systems, however, are often composed of many interconnected components that exhibit rich behaviors, due to complex, system-wide interactions. Modeling these systems leads to complex stochastic hybrid models that capture the large number of operational and failure modes. This large number of modes makes a typical MM estimation approach infeasible for online estimation. This paper analyzes the shortcomings of MM estimation, and then introduces an alternative hybrid estimation scheme that can efficiently estimate complex systems with large number of modes. It utilizes search techniques from the toolkit of model-based reasoning in order to focus the estimation on the set of most likely modes, without missing symptoms that might be hidden amongst the system noise. In addition, we present a novel approach to hybrid estimation in the presence of unknown behavioral modes. This leads to an overall hybrid estimation scheme for complex systems that robustly copes with unforeseen situations in a degraded, but fail-safe manner.

  5. Researching and Developing Music Provision in Special Schools in England for Children and Young People with Complex Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheng, Evangeline; Ockelford, Adam; Welch, Graham

    2009-01-01

    The House of Commons Select Committee on Education (2006) estimated that around 18% of all pupils in England were categorised as having Special Educational Needs (SEN). "Around 3% of all children (250,000) had a statement of SEN and around 1% of all children were in special schools (90,000) which represent approximately one third of children…

  6. Language Networks as Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Max Kueiming; Ou, Sheue-Jen

    2008-01-01

    Starting in the late eighties, with a growing discontent with analytical methods in science and the growing power of computers, researchers began to study complex systems such as living organisms, evolution of genes, biological systems, brain neural networks, epidemics, ecology, economy, social networks, etc. In the early nineties, the research…

  7. Control principles of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yang-Yu; Barabási, Albert-László

    2016-07-01

    A reflection of our ultimate understanding of a complex system is our ability to control its behavior. Typically, control has multiple prerequisites: it requires an accurate map of the network that governs the interactions between the system's components, a quantitative description of the dynamical laws that govern the temporal behavior of each component, and an ability to influence the state and temporal behavior of a selected subset of the components. With deep roots in dynamical systems and control theory, notions of control and controllability have taken a new life recently in the study of complex networks, inspiring several fundamental questions: What are the control principles of complex systems? How do networks organize themselves to balance control with functionality? To address these questions here recent advances on the controllability and the control of complex networks are reviewed, exploring the intricate interplay between the network topology and dynamical laws. The pertinent mathematical results are matched with empirical findings and applications. Uncovering the control principles of complex systems can help us explore and ultimately understand the fundamental laws that govern their behavior.

  8. Public health in England in 2016-the health of the public and the public health system: a review.

    PubMed

    Middleton, John

    2017-01-01

    This article describes the current state of the health of the public in England and the state of the public health professional service and systems. Data sources are wide ranging including the Global Burden of Disease, the Commonwealth Fund and Public Health England reports. There is a high burden of preventable disease and unacceptable inequalities in England. There is considerable expectation that there are gains to be made in preventing ill health and disability and so relieving demand on healthcare. Despite agreement on the need for prevention, the Government has cut public health budgets by a cumulative 10% to 2020. Public health professionals broadly supportive of remaining in the EU face an uphill battle to retain health, workplace and environmental protections following the 'Leave' vote. There is revitalized interest in air pollution. Extreme weather events are testing response and organizational skills of public health professionals and indicating the need for greater advocacy around climate change, biodiversity and protection of ecological systems. Planetary health and ecological public health are ideas whose time has certainly come.

  9. 1998 Complex Systems Summer School

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-15

    For the past eleven years a group of institutes, centers, and universities throughout the country have sponsored a summer school in Santa Fe, New Mexico as part of an interdisciplinary effort to promote the understanding of complex systems. The goal of these summer schools is to provide graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and active research scientists with an introduction to the study of complex behavior in mathematical, physical, and living systems. The Center for Nonlinear Studies supported the eleventh in this series of highly successful schools in Santa Fe in June, 1998.

  10. Assessment of forest fragmentation in southern New England using remote sensing and geographic information systems technology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vogelmann, James E.

    1995-01-01

    Spatial patterns and rates of forest fragmentation were assessed using digital remote sensing data for a region in southern New England that included 157 townships in southern New Hampshire and northeastern Massachusetts. The study area has undergone marked population increases over the last several decades. Following classification of 1973 and 1988 Landsat Multispectral Scanner data into forest and nonforest classes, data were incorporated into a geographic information system. The natural logarithms of forest area to perimeter ratios, referred to as the forest continuity index, were used to assess patterns and trends of forest fragmentation across the region Forest continuity index values were extracted from each township for both data sets and compared with population data. Forest continuity index values were found to decrease with increasing population density until about 200 persons per square kilometer, after which the relationship stabilized. With slight population increases at low densities forest continuity index values declined sharply, implying abrupt increases in forest fragmentation. Results from the study indicated good negative correlations (r2 values of 0.81 and 0.77) between the Multispectral Scanner-derived forest continuity index and natural logs of township population density. Socioeconomic indicators such as affluence and commuting patterns did not appear to correlate well with forest fragmentation estimates. Decreases in forest continuity index values occurred throughout much of the study region between 1973 and 1988, suggesting that forest fragmentation is occurring over large regions within the eastern United States. It is technologically feasible to assess patterns and rates of forest fragmentation across much larger areas than analyzed in this study; such analyses would provide useful overviews enabling objective assessment of the magnitude of forest fragmentation.

  11. Data model and relational database design for the New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tessler, Steven

    2001-01-01

    The New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS) is a database for the storage and retrieval of water-use data. NEWUDS can handle data covering many facets of water use, including (1) tracking various types of water-use activities (withdrawals, returns, transfers, distributions, consumptive-use, wastewater collection, and treatment); (2) the description, classification and location of places and organizations involved in water-use activities; (3) details about measured or estimated volumes of water associated with water-use activities; and (4) information about data sources and water resources associated with water use. In NEWUDS, each water transaction occurs unidirectionally between two site objects, and the sites and conveyances form a water network. The core entities in the NEWUDS model are site, conveyance, transaction/rate, location, and owner. Other important entities include water resources (used for withdrawals and returns), data sources, and aliases. Multiple water-exchange estimates can be stored for individual transactions based on different methods or data sources. Storage of user-defined details is accommodated for several of the main entities. Numerous tables containing classification terms facilitate detailed descriptions of data items and can be used for routine or custom data summarization. NEWUDS handles single-user and aggregate-user water-use data, can be used for large or small water-network projects, and is available as a stand-alone Microsoft? Access database structure. Users can customize and extend the database, link it to other databases, or implement the design in other relational database applications.

  12. Educational Assessment in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Isaacs, Tina

    2010-01-01

    This profile explains the assessment system in England, concentrating on those aspects that are related to government policy. It begins by putting the system in context; it then describes the national educational structure, curriculum and assessment arrangements. The government agencies responsible for carrying out education policies are…

  13. Physical approach to complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwapień, Jarosław; Drożdż, Stanisław

    2012-06-01

    Typically, complex systems are natural or social systems which consist of a large number of nonlinearly interacting elements. These systems are open, they interchange information or mass with environment and constantly modify their internal structure and patterns of activity in the process of self-organization. As a result, they are flexible and easily adapt to variable external conditions. However, the most striking property of such systems is the existence of emergent phenomena which cannot be simply derived or predicted solely from the knowledge of the systems’ structure and the interactions among their individual elements. This property points to the holistic approaches which require giving parallel descriptions of the same system on different levels of its organization. There is strong evidence-consolidated also in the present review-that different, even apparently disparate complex systems can have astonishingly similar characteristics both in their structure and in their behaviour. One can thus expect the existence of some common, universal laws that govern their properties. Physics methodology proves helpful in addressing many of the related issues. In this review, we advocate some of the computational methods which in our opinion are especially fruitful in extracting information on selected-but at the same time most representative-complex systems like human brain, financial markets and natural language, from the time series representing the observables associated with these systems. The properties we focus on comprise the collective effects and their coexistence with noise, long-range interactions, the interplay between determinism and flexibility in evolution, scale invariance, criticality, multifractality and hierarchical structure. The methods described either originate from “hard” physics-like the random matrix theory-and then were transmitted to other fields of science via the field of complex systems research, or they originated elsewhere but

  14. Paleozoic orogens in New England, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, P.; Tucker, R.D.; Bradley, D.; Berry, H.N.; Osberg, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Stratigraphy and isotope geochronology in the crystalline core of the Appalachians suggest revised interpretations of the extent, nature and timing of Paleozoic orogens in New England. Five major episodes of magmatism, deformation, and high-grade regional metamorphism are recognized: Taconian (455-442 Ma), Acadian (423-385 Ma), Neo-Acadian (366-350 Ma), Late Pennsylvanian (300-290 Ma) and Alleghanian (280-260 Ma). In the Taconian, the passive margin of Laurentia was subducted below a complex magmatic arc lasting from 480 to 442 Ma, founded in part on continental crust of a Medial New England terrane with possible affinities with Amazonia. Questions about Medial New England involve its coherence as a single plate, and the nature of its underlying crust. The Acadian began in Late Silurian as a collision between the amalgamated Laurentia-Medial New England and outer belts of Composite Avalon along a cryptic suture in coastal Maine, and progressed northwestward to the Connecticut Valley basin by mid-Devonian. Tonalitic-granitic magmatism and up to granulite-facies metamorphism culminated in Early Devonian, possibly tied to lithospheric detachment below the subducting northwestern plate and consequent asthenosphere upwelling. Newly discovered Neo-Acadian Late Devonian to Early Mississippian tonalitic-granitic magmatism, up to granulite-facies metamorphism, and severe deformation in central Massachusetts took place in a plate context poorly understood. Late Pennsylvanian effects include magmatism, metamorphism, and deformation near south New England gneiss domes and the Sebago batholith, and development of the right-lateral Norumbega fault system. Permian Alleghanian effects include penetrative deformation, granitic intrusions and up to sillimanite-grade metamorphism of Pennsylvanian beds in southeastern New England. These last two episodes relate to the arrival of Africa.

  15. Monopolising the Examining Board System in England: A Theoretical Perspective in Support of Reform

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    The fiascoes that seem to accompany the annual publication of examination results in England, the subsequent inquiries instituted to ensure they "never happen again" and the Secretary of State's decision, reversed six months later because of fears about possible EU legal challenges, to "end competition between exam boards"…

  16. Disorder in Complex Human System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akdeniz, K. Gediz

    2011-11-01

    Since the world of human and whose life becomes more and more complex every day because of the digital technology and under the storm of knowledge (media, internet, governmental and non-governmental organizations, etc...) the simulation is rapidly growing in the social systems and in human behaviors. The formation of the body and mutual interactions are left to digital technological, communication mechanisms and coding the techno genetics of the body. Deconstruction begins everywhere. The linear simulation mechanism with modern realities are replaced by the disorder simulation of human behaviors with awareness realities. In this paper I would like to introduce simulation theory of "Disorder Sensitive Human Behaviors". I recently proposed this theory to critique the role of disorder human behaviors in social systems. In this theory the principle of realty is the chaotic awareness of the complexity of human systems inside of principle of modern thinking in Baudrillard's simulation theory. Proper examples will be also considered to investigate the theory.

  17. Prognostics Methodology for Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gulati, Sandeep; Mackey, Ryan

    2003-01-01

    An automatic method to schedule maintenance and repair of complex systems is produced based on a computational structure called the Informed Maintenance Grid (IMG). This method provides solutions to the two fundamental problems in autonomic logistics: (1) unambiguous detection of deterioration or impending loss of function and (2) determination of the time remaining to perform maintenance or other corrective action based upon information from the system. The IMG provides a health determination over the medium-to-longterm operation of the system, from one or more days to years of study. The IMG is especially applicable to spacecraft and both piloted and autonomous aircraft, or industrial control processes.

  18. Clinical outcomes and costs for people with complex psychosis; a naturalistic prospective cohort study of mental health rehabilitation service users in England.

    PubMed

    Killaspy, Helen; Marston, Louise; Green, Nicholas; Harrison, Isobel; Lean, Melanie; Holloway, Frank; Craig, Tom; Leavey, Gerard; Arbuthnott, Maurice; Koeser, Leonardo; McCrone, Paul; Omar, Rumana Z; King, Michael

    2016-04-07

    Mental health rehabilitation services in England focus on people with complex psychosis. This group tend to have lengthy hospital admissions due to the severity of their problems and, despite representing only 10-20 % of all those with psychosis, they absorb 25-50 % of the total mental health budget. Few studies have investigated the effectiveness of these services and there is little evidence available to guide clinicians working in this area. As part of a programme of research into inpatient mental health rehabilitation services, we carried out a prospective study to investigate longitudinal outcomes and costs for patients of these services and the predictors of better outcome. Inpatient mental health rehabilitation services across England that scored above average (median) on a standardised quality assessment tool used in a previous national survey were eligible for the study. Unit quality was reassessed and costs of care and patient characteristics rated using standardised tools at recruitment. Multivariable regression modelling was used to investigate the relationship between service quality, patient characteristics and the following clinical outcomes at 12 month follow-up: social function; length of admission in the rehabiliation unit; successful community discharge (without readmission or community placement breakdown) and costs of care. Across England, 50 units participated and 329 patients were followed over 12 months (94 % of those recruited). Service quality was not associated with patients' social function or length of admission (median 16 months) at 12 months but most patients were successfully discharged (56 %) or ready for discharge (14 %), with associated reductions in the costs of care. Factors associated with successful discharge were the recovery orientation of the service (OR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.00-1.08), and patients' activity (OR 1.03, 95 % CI 1.01-1.05) and social skills (OR 1.13, 95 % CI 1.04-1.24) at recruitment. Inpatient mental health

  19. BOOK REVIEW: Modeling Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schreckenberg, M.

    2004-10-01

    This book by Nino Boccara presents a compilation of model systems commonly termed as `complex'. It starts with a definition of the systems under consideration and how to build up a model to describe the complex dynamics. The subsequent chapters are devoted to various categories of mean-field type models (differential and recurrence equations, chaos) and of agent-based models (cellular automata, networks and power-law distributions). Each chapter is supplemented by a number of exercises and their solutions. The table of contents looks a little arbitrary but the author took the most prominent model systems investigated over the years (and up until now there has been no unified theory covering the various aspects of complex dynamics). The model systems are explained by looking at a number of applications in various fields. The book is written as a textbook for interested students as well as serving as a compehensive reference for experts. It is an ideal source for topics to be presented in a lecture on dynamics of complex systems. This is the first book on this `wide' topic and I have long awaited such a book (in fact I planned to write it myself but this is much better than I could ever have written it!). Only section 6 on cellular automata is a little too limited to the author's point of view and one would have expected more about the famous Domany--Kinzel model (and more accurate citation!). In my opinion this is one of the best textbooks published during the last decade and even experts can learn a lot from it. Hopefully there will be an actualization after, say, five years since this field is growing so quickly. The price is too high for students but this, unfortunately, is the normal case today. Nevertheless I think it will be a great success!

  20. Mineralogical Evidence for the Palaeohydrogeological Stability of a Deep Groundwater System in Fractured Rock, in West Cumbria, Northwest England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milodowski, A. E.; Gillespie, M. R.; Chenery, S. R. N.; Naden, J.; Shaw, R. P.

    2014-12-01

    An important requirement of the safety assessment for a geological disposal facility (GDF) for radioactive waste is to be able to demonstrate the long-term chemical stability of the groundwater system at repository depth over the long period of time during which the waste will be a hazard, typically up to one million years. Of particular concern in the UK is the potential for oxidising groundwater to penetrate to repository depth during periods of glaciation, thereby increasing the mobility of some transuranic radionuclides.Between 1990 and 1998, United Kingdom Nirex Limited carried out geological investigations into the suitability of a potential site in the Sellafield area of NW England, for a GDF for L/ILW. As part of these investigations, detailed petrological analysis of fracture mineralisation in 23 deep boreholes identified a complex sequence of mineralisation events referred to as ME1-ME9. The distribution of the ME9 calcite mineralisation correlates closely with present-day groundwater flows. The ME9 calcite has been studied in more detail to understand the evolution of the deep groundwater system. The morphology and growth zoning characteristics of the calcites reflects the groundwater chemistry. Freshwater calcites display c-axis flattened to equant crystals, and are non-ferroan and strongly zoned with Mn-rich and Mn-free bands. Deeper saline-zone calcites display c-axis elongated crystals, with high Mn:Fe and low Mn:Fe growth zones. Calcite in the transition zone between the saline and fresh groundwater display saline-type cores overgrown by freshwater-type calcite, indicating a small depression of the position of the transition zone during the growth of the calcites. Sr isotope ratios and fluid inclusion chemistry confirm a link between ME9 calcite and the present regional groundwater system. Modelling of the oxygen isotope data indicates that some growth zones in the ME9 calcite precipitated from groundwater potentially containing a significant

  1. Human Error In Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Nancy M.; Rouse, William B.

    1991-01-01

    Report presents results of research aimed at understanding causes of human error in such complex systems as aircraft, nuclear powerplants, and chemical processing plants. Research considered both slips (errors of action) and mistakes (errors of intention), and influence of workload on them. Results indicated that: humans respond to conditions in which errors expected by attempting to reduce incidence of errors; and adaptation to conditions potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations.

  2. Semiotics of constructed complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Landauer, C.; Bellman, K.L.

    1996-12-31

    The scope of this paper is limited to software and other constructed complex systems mediated or integrated by software. Our research program studies foundational issues that we believe will help us develop a theoretically sound approach to constructing complex systems. There have really been only two theoretical approaches that have helped us understand and develop computational systems: mathematics and linguistics. We show how semiotics can also play a role, whether we think of it as part of these other theories or as subsuming one or both of them. We describe our notion of {open_quotes}computational semiotics{close_quotes}, which we define to be the study of computational methods of dealing with symbols, show how such a theory might be formed, and describe what we might get from it in terms of more interesting use of symbols by computing systems. This research was supported in part by the Federal Highway Administration`s Office of Advanced Research and by the Advanced Research Projects Agency`s Software and Intelligent Systems Technology Office.

  3. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.

    2004-12-30

    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  4. Innovations in major system reconfiguration in England: a study of the effectiveness, acceptability and processes of implementation of two models of stroke care.

    PubMed

    Fulop, Naomi; Boaden, Ruth; Hunter, Rachael; McKevitt, Christopher; Morris, Steve; Pursani, Nanik; Ramsay, Angus Ig; Rudd, Anthony G; Tyrrell, Pippa J; DA Wolfe, Charles

    2013-01-05

    Significant changes in provision of clinical care within the English National Health Service (NHS) have been discussed in recent years, with proposals to concentrate specialist services in fewer centres. Stroke is a major public health issue, accounting for over 10% of deaths in England and Wales, and much disability among survivors. Variations have been highlighted in stroke care, with many patients not receiving evidence-based care. To address these concerns, stroke services in London and Greater Manchester were reorganised, although different models were implemented. This study will analyse processes involved in making significant changes to stroke care services over a short time period, and the factors influencing these processes. We will examine whether the changes have delivered improvements in quality of care and patient outcomes; and, in light of this, whether the significant extra financial investment represented good value for money. This study brings together quantitative data on 'what works and at what cost?' with qualitative data on 'understanding implementation and sustainability' to understand major system change in two large conurbations in England. Data on processes of care and their outcomes (e.g. morbidity, mortality, and cost) will be analysed to evidence services' performance before and after reconfiguration. The evaluation draws on theories related to the dissemination and sustainability of innovations and the 'social matrix' underlying processes of innovation. We will conduct a series of case studies based on stakeholder interviews and documentary analysis. These will identify drivers for change, how the reconfigurations were governed, developed, and implemented, and how they influenced service quality. The research faces challenges due to: the different timings of the reconfigurations; the retrospective nature of the evaluation; and the current organisational turbulence in the English NHS. However, these issues reflect the realities of major

  5. Complex System Governance for Acquisition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-30

    corresponding language , and systems theoretic grounding to acquisition . Unfortunately, the current emphasis too often engages research that directs...qÜáêíÉÉåíÜ=^ååì~ä= ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ= póãéçëáìã= qÜìêëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=ff= = Complex System Governance for Acquisition Joseph Bradley, President...the Acquisition Research Program of the Graduate School of Business & Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School. To request defense

  6. Tectono-metamorphic evolution of high-P/T and low-P/T metamorphic rocks in the Tia Complex, southern New England Fold Belt, eastern Australia: Insights from K-Ar chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukui, Shiro; Tsujimori, Tatsuki; Watanabe, Teruo; Itaya, Tetsumaru

    2012-10-01

    The Tia Complex in the southern New England Fold Belt is a poly-metamorphosed Late Paleozoic accretionary complex. It consists mainly of high-P/low-T type pumpellyite-actinolite facies (rare blueschist facies) schists, phyllite and serpentinite (T = 300 °C and P = 5 kbar), and low-P/high-T type amphibolite facies schist and gneiss (T = 600 °C and P < 5 kbar) associated with granodioritic plutons (Tia granodiorite). White mica and biotite K-Ar ages distinguish Carboniferous subduction zone metamorphism and Permian granitic intrusions, respectively. The systematic K-Ar age mapping along a N-S traverse of the Tia Complex exhibits a gradual change. The white mica ages become younger from the lowest-grade zone (339 Ma) to the highest-grade zone (259 Ma). In contrast, Si content of muscovite changes drastically only in the highest-grade zone. The regional changes of white mica K-Ar ages and chemical compositions of micas indicate argon depletion from precursor high-P/low-T type phengitic white mica during the thermal overprinting and recrystallization by granitoids intrusions. Our new K-Ar ages and available geological data postulate a model of the eastward rollback of a subduction zone in Early Permian. The eastward shift of a subduction zone system and subsequent magmatic activities of high-Mg andesite and adakite might explain formation of S-type granitoids (Hillgrove suite) and coeval low-P/high-T type metamorphism in the Tia Complex.

  7. Sustainability, Complexity and Learning: Insights from Complex Systems Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Espinosa, A.; Porter, T.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to explore core contributions from two different approaches to complexity management in organisations aiming to improve their sustainability,: the Viable Systems Model (VSM), and the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). It is proposed to perform this by summarising the main insights each approach offers to…

  8. Sustainability, Complexity and Learning: Insights from Complex Systems Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Espinosa, A.; Porter, T.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to explore core contributions from two different approaches to complexity management in organisations aiming to improve their sustainability,: the Viable Systems Model (VSM), and the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). It is proposed to perform this by summarising the main insights each approach offers to…

  9. Coupling suspension complex system optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    English, Kenneth William

    The design of a complex product requires multiple analyses, many of which trade information. In some cases, some information is required before it is available, as a result an estimate must be made of that input for the analysis to proceed. Once the input becomes available, additional calculations must be made to ensure that the result of the analysis reflects the changed input. This iteration creates a considerable computational cost in the design process. This iteration may be eliminated through the reordering of the analyses, or through the temporary or permanent removal of the couplings between the system analyses. This elimination of couplings is termed system reduction. Until relatively recently, the trade of accuracy and efficiency that enables system reduction was only carried out in the context of local sensitivities, how much one analysis output impacts another output. Recent developments expanded this capability to include a system level measure of introduced error into the objective function and constraints, allowing the development of a selection subproblem that trades accuracy and efficiency in the system reduction context. The current state of the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency is far form complete. The initial subproblem formulation resulted in potentially destabilizing sets of couplings being selected, which could result in system analysis convergence errors. Additionally, the technique employed to select couplings for suspension is extremely limited in scope. The designer's intuition and experience had been eliminated from the selection process, replaced by a simple selection algorithm. First, the current coupling suspension problem is augmented, incorporating additional constraints to improve performance in system analysis stability, improved convergence characteristics, and more accurate error growth modeling. The second issue this dissertation addresses is the development of a methodology that allows a designer to interactively

  10. An American knowledge base in England - Alternate implementations of an expert system flight status monitor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, G. F.; Graves, A. T.; Disbrow, J. D.; Duke, E. L.

    1989-01-01

    A joint activity between the Dryden Flight Research Facility of the NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE) on knowledge-based systems has been agreed. Under the agreement, a flight status monitor knowledge base developed at Ames-Dryden has been implemented using the real-time AI (artificial intelligence) toolkit MUSE, which was developed in the UK. Here, the background to the cooperation is described and the details of the flight status monitor and a prototype MUSE implementation are presented. It is noted that the capabilities of the expert-system flight status monitor to monitor data downlinked from the flight test aircraft and to generate information on the state and health of the system for the test engineers provides increased safety during flight testing of new systems. Furthermore, the expert-system flight status monitor provides the systems engineers with ready access to the large amount of information required to describe a complex aircraft system.

  11. Multilevel Complex Networks and Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldarelli, Guido

    2014-03-01

    Network theory has been a powerful tool to model isolated complex systems. However, the classical approach does not take into account the interactions often present among different systems. Hence, the scientific community is nowadays concentrating the efforts on the foundations of new mathematical tools for understanding what happens when multiple networks interact. The case of economic and financial networks represents a paramount example of multilevel networks. In the case of trade, trade among countries the different levels can be described by the different granularity of the trading relations. Indeed, we have now data from the scale of consumers to that of the country level. In the case of financial institutions, we have a variety of levels at the same scale. For example one bank can appear in the interbank networks, ownership network and cds networks in which the same institution can take place. In both cases the systemically important vertices need to be determined by different procedures of centrality definition and community detection. In this talk I will present some specific cases of study related to these topics and present the regularities found. Acknowledged support from EU FET Project ``Multiplex'' 317532.

  12. Complexity and synchronization in stochastic chaotic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dang, Thai Son; Palit, Sanjay Kumar; Mukherjee, Sayan; Hoang, Thang Manh; Banerjee, Santo

    2016-02-01

    We investigate the complexity of a hyperchaotic dynamical system perturbed by noise and various nonlinear speech and music signals. The complexity is measured by the weighted recurrence entropy of the hyperchaotic and stochastic systems. The synchronization phenomenon between two stochastic systems with complex coupling is also investigated. These criteria are tested on chaotic and perturbed systems by mean conditional recurrence and normalized synchronization error. Numerical results including surface plots, normalized synchronization errors, complexity variations etc show the effectiveness of the proposed analysis.

  13. Complex systems in aeolian geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baas, Andreas C. W.

    2007-11-01

    Aeolian geomorphology provides a rich ground for investigating Earth surface processes and landforms as complex systems. Sand transport by wind is a classic dissipative process with non-linear dynamics, while dune field evolution is a prototypical self-organisation phenomenon. Both of these broad areas of aeolian geomorphology are discussed and analysed in the context of complexity and a systems approach. A feedback loop analysis of the aeolian boundary-layer-flow/sediment-transport/bedform interactions, based on contemporary physical models, reveals that the system is fundamentally unstable (or at most meta-stable) and likely to exhibit chaotic behaviour. Recent field-experimental research on aeolian streamers and spatio-temporal transport patterns, however, indicates that sand transport by wind may be wholly controlled by a self-similar turbulence cascade in the boundary layer flow, and that key aspects of transport event time-series can be fully reproduced from a combination of (self-organised) 1/ f forcing, motion threshold, and saltation inertia. The evolution of various types of bare-sand dunes and dune field patterns have been simulated successfully with self-organising cellular automata that incorporate only simplified physically-based interactions (rules). Because of their undefined physical scale, however, it not clear whether they in fact simulate ripples (bedforms) or dunes (landforms), raising fundamental cross-cutting questions regarding the difference between aeolian dunes, impact ripples, and subaqueous (current) ripples and dunes. An extended cellular automaton (CA) model, currently under development, incorporates the effects of vegetation in the aeolian environment and is capable of simulating the development of nebkhas, blow-outs, and parabolic coastal dunes. Preliminary results indicate the potential for establishing phase diagrams and attractor trajectories for vegetated aeolian dunescapes. Progress is limited, however, by a serious lack of

  14. A Combined Kohonen Networks and Complex Networks approach for the analysis of Large Scale Atmospheric Features and River Floods in England and Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conticello, Federico; Cioffi, Francesco; Lall, Upmanu; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Floods and other hydroclimatic extremes may represent specific states of organization of the atmospheric circulation. Given this hypothesis an open question is how best to identify such states, and their space-time persistence. Such a mapping would facilitate a physically meaningful identification of the potential severity, frequency and duration of such events in future climates. With this in view, the link between large scale atmospheric circulation and the extreme floods in Germany and England is investigated by a combined Kohonen Networks and Complex Networks approach. Historical data from 57 streamflow gages in England and 68 in Germany and the Reanalysis Historical Data of the Atmospheric Circulation Fields, bounded from 90W to 70E and from 20N to 80N, are used for the purpose. The common period of record is from 1960 to 2012. A finite number of typical atmospheric configurations of the considered region are identified by using the Kohonen Networks approach. This approach is preceded by the application of the Principal Component Analysis of the selected atmospheric variable; a number of PCs is retained to explain more than the 99% of the variance. Then the historical sequence of the atmospheric fields, by using k-nearest neighbor methods, is transformed into a binary matrix which identifies, at each time step, the atmospheric configuration most similar to one of the typical ones identified by the Kohonen Network. A further binary matrix is constructed by using as a threshold the 99th percentile of the discharge rates. Finally the Event Synchronization method is applied determining synchronization, causality and delay between the extreme floods in each streamflow gage and the associated atmospheric circulation feature. We find that the proposed approach can be useful and effective to identify the most critical atmospheric circulation patterns responsible of the extreme floods and thus to be used as part of a prediction strategy.

  15. Collaboration in Complex Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xiao, Yan; Mankenzie, Colin F.

    1998-01-01

    Improving our understanding of collaborative work in complex environments has the potential for developing effective supporting technologies, personnel training paradigms, and design principles for multi-crew workplaces. USing a sophisticated audio-video-data acquisition system and a corresponding analysis system, the researchers at University of Maryland have been able to study in detail team performance during real trauma patient resuscitation. The first study reported here was on coordination mechanisms and on characteristics of coordination breakdowns. One of the key findings was that implicit communications were an important coordination mechanism (e.g. through the use of shared workspace and event space). The second study was on the sources of uncertainty during resuscitation. Although incoming trauma patients' status is inherently uncertain, the findings suggest that much of the uncertainty felt by care providers was related to communication and coordination. These two studies demonstrate the value of and need for creating a real-life laboratory for studying team performance with the use of comprehensive and integrated data acquisition and analysis tools.

  16. Collaboration in Complex Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xiao, Yan; Mankenzie, Colin F.

    1998-01-01

    Improving our understanding of collaborative work in complex environments has the potential for developing effective supporting technologies, personnel training paradigms, and design principles for multi-crew workplaces. USing a sophisticated audio-video-data acquisition system and a corresponding analysis system, the researchers at University of Maryland have been able to study in detail team performance during real trauma patient resuscitation. The first study reported here was on coordination mechanisms and on characteristics of coordination breakdowns. One of the key findings was that implicit communications were an important coordination mechanism (e.g. through the use of shared workspace and event space). The second study was on the sources of uncertainty during resuscitation. Although incoming trauma patients' status is inherently uncertain, the findings suggest that much of the uncertainty felt by care providers was related to communication and coordination. These two studies demonstrate the value of and need for creating a real-life laboratory for studying team performance with the use of comprehensive and integrated data acquisition and analysis tools.

  17. Implementing sustainable drainage systems for urban surface water management within the regulatory framework in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Ellis, J Bryan; Lundy, Lian

    2016-12-01

    The UK 2007 floods resulted in damages estimated to exceed over £4 billion. This triggered a national review of strategic flood risk management (Pitt, 2008) with its recommendations informing and implemented by the Flood and Water Management, Act (FWMA, 2010). Estimating that up to two-thirds of properties flooded in the 2007 event as a direct result of overloaded sewer systems, the FWMA set out an ambitious overhaul of flood risk management approaches including identifying bodies responsible for the management of local flood risk (local municipalities) and the development of over-arching Lead Local Flood Authorities (LLFAs) at a regional level. LLFAs duties include developing local flood risk management strategies and, aligned with this, many LLFAs and local municipalities produced sustainable drainage system (SUDS) guidance notes. In parallel, changes to the national planning policy framework (NPPF) in England give priority to the use of SUDS in new major developments, as does the related Town and Country Planning Order (2015). However, whilst all three pieces of legislation refer to the preferential use of SUDs, these requirements remain "economically proportionate" and thus the inclusion of SUDS within development controls remain desirable - but not mandatory - obligations. Within this dynamic policy context, reignited most recently by the December 2015 floods, this paper examines some of the challenges to the implementation of SUDS in England and Wales posed by the new regulatory frameworks. In particular, it examines how emerging organisational procedures and processes are likely to impact on future SUDS implementation, and highlights the need for further cross-sectoral working to ensure opportunities for cross-sectoral benefits- such as that accrued by reducing stormwater flows within combined sewer systems for water companies, property developers and environmental protection - are not lost. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The complexity of hierarchical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceccatto, H. A.; Huberman, B. A.

    1988-01-01

    We introduce a procedure for coarse graining a given hierarchical structure and show how it leads to an effective saturation of the complexity value with increasing number of lower levels. Secondly, we verify that this coarse grained measure has the property of isolating the most diverse trees as the ones with maximal complexity. As a corollary, we cast the dynamical measure of complexity of Bachas and Huberman in terms of purely static properties of trees representing ultradiffusion. We also discuss the differences between the coarse-grained measure of complexity and that provided by relaxation processes.

  19. Reduction of Subjective and Objective System Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Occam's razor is often used in science to define the minimum criteria to establish a physical or philosophical idea or relationship. Albert Einstein is attributed the saying "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler". These heuristic ideas are based on a belief that there is a minimum state or set of states for a given system or phenomena. In looking at system complexity, these heuristics point us to an idea that complexity can be reduced to a minimum. How then, do we approach a reduction in complexity? Complexity has been described as a subjective concept and an objective measure of a system. Subjective complexity is based on human cognitive comprehension of the functions and inter relationships of a system. Subjective complexity is defined by the ability to fully comprehend the system. Simplifying complexity, in a subjective sense, is thus gaining a deeper understanding of the system. As Apple's Jonathon Ive has stated," It's not just minimalism or the absence of clutter. It involves digging through the depth of complexity. To be truly simple, you have to go really deep". Simplicity is not the absence of complexity but a deeper understanding of complexity. Subjective complexity, based on this human comprehension, cannot then be discerned from the sociological concept of ignorance. The inability to comprehend a system can be either a lack of knowledge, an inability to understand the intricacies of a system, or both. Reduction in this sense is based purely on a cognitive ability to understand the system and no system then may be truly complex. From this view, education and experience seem to be the keys to reduction or eliminating complexity. Objective complexity, is the measure of the systems functions and interrelationships which exist independent of human comprehension. Jonathon Ive's statement does not say that complexity is removed, only that the complexity is understood. From this standpoint, reduction of complexity can be approached

  20. Complex systems in metabolic engineering.

    PubMed

    Winkler, James D; Erickson, Keesha; Choudhury, Alaksh; Halweg-Edwards, Andrea L; Gill, Ryan T

    2015-12-01

    Metabolic engineers manipulate intricate biological networks to build efficient biological machines. The inherent complexity of this task, derived from the extensive and often unknown interconnectivity between and within these networks, often prevents researchers from achieving desired performance. Other fields have developed methods to tackle the issue of complexity for their unique subset of engineering problems, but to date, there has not been extensive and comprehensive examination of how metabolic engineers use existing tools to ameliorate this effect on their own research projects. In this review, we examine how complexity affects engineering at the protein, pathway, and genome levels within an organism, and the tools for handling these issues to achieve high-performing strain designs. Quantitative complexity metrics and their applications to metabolic engineering versus traditional engineering fields are also discussed. We conclude by predicting how metabolic engineering practices may advance in light of an explicit consideration of design complexity.

  1. A framework of a patient safety information system for Iranian hospitals: lessons learned from Australia, England and the US.

    PubMed

    Sheikhtaheri, Abbas; Sadoughi, Farahnaz; Ahmadi, Maryam; Moghaddasi, Hamid

    2013-05-01

    Patient Safety Information Systems (PSIS) are prerequisite for any patient safety program. The purpose of the study was to review PSISs in developed countries and to customize a preliminary framework for such systems for Iran. Three developed countries in the field of patient safety including the USA, England and Australia were selected and their PSISs or reporting systems were studied. In addition, 15 unstructured interviews were conducted with Iranian informants. In the developed countries, specific regulations have been formulated regarding reporting and recording of patient safety incidents. Based on these regulations, a variety of patient safety data needs to be collected. In addition, the reportable incidents, the mechanisms of data analysis, the entities involved in the system, tools and technologies as well as feedback mechanisms have been defined well. In the field of patient safety, the Iranian health system is still in its infancy and lacks a formal information system for collecting, analyzing, disseminating and sharing patient safety information. Based on other countries' experiences, a preliminary framework for an Iranian PSIS was suggested. Developing a PSIS for Iranian hospitals is crucially needed. In this regard, Iranian hospitals and health authorities should develop standardized data sets, standard forms for reporting, mechanisms for data analysis and feedback modes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Compulsory random drug testing of prisoners in England and Wales: design flaws in the system.

    PubMed

    Notarianni, L J; Belk, D; Collins, A J

    1995-12-01

    The Home Office has recently introduced compulsory testing of prisoners in England and Wales for drug abuse. From 1996 all prisons in the UK will be involved. Urine samples from approximately 10% of the prison population will be collected each month. The method of drug analysis selected by the Home Office is fast and economical but readily prone to interference from common substances giving false results. An elaborate procedure has therefore been evolved including a rigorous personal search of the prisoner to prevent sample adulteration. The definitive test gas chromotography - mass spectrometry (GC-MS), is more expensive but is resistant to sample adulteration, and currently all positive samples are confirmed by this method. In view of the proportion of samples that have tested positive, the extent of the unknown number of false negatives, and the possible rejection of the collection protocol by prisoners, savings could be made if the method of analysis employed in the first instance was GC-MS. This paper illustrates the inaccuracies produced in an assay technique similar to that used by the Home Office when urine is contaminated by simple, commonly available substances.

  3. Emergent complexity in simple neural systems

    PubMed Central

    Oster, George

    2009-01-01

    The ornate and diverse patterns of seashells testify to the complexity of living systems. Provocative computational explorations have shown that similarly complex patterns may arise from the collective interaction of a small number of rules. This suggests that, although a system may appear complex, it may still be understood in terms of simple principles. It is still debatable whether shell patterns emerge from some undiscovered simple principles, or are the consequence of an irreducibly complex interaction of many effects. Recent work by Boettiger, Ermentrout and Oster on the biological mechanisms of shell patterning has provided compelling evidence that, at least for this system, simplicity produces diversity and complexity. PMID:20195452

  4. Volumetric analysis of a New England barrier system using ground-penetrating-radar and coring techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Heteren, S.; FitzGerald, D.M.; Barber, D.C.; Kelley, J.T.; Belknap, D.F.

    1996-01-01

    Ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) profiles calibrated with core data allow accurate assessments of coastal barrier volumes. We applied this procedure successfully to the barrier system along Saco Bay, Maine (USA), as part of a sediment-budget study that focused on present-day sand volumes in various coastal, shoreface, and inner-shelf lith-osomes, and on sand fluxes that have affected the volume or distribution of sand in these sediment bodies through time. On GPR profiles, the components of the barrier lithosome are readily differentiated from other facies, except where the radar signal is attenuated by brackish or salty groundwater. Significant differences between dielectric properties of the barrier lithosome and other units commonly result in strong boundary reflectors. The mostly sandy barrier sediments allow deep penetration of GPR waves, in contrast to finer-grained strata and till-covered bedrock. Within the Saco Bay barrier system, 22 ??3 x 106 m3 of sediment are unevenly distributed. Two-thirds of the total barrier volume is contained within the northern and southern ends of the study area, in the Pine Point spit and the Ferry Beach/Goosefare complex, respectively. The central area around Old Orchard Beach is locally covered by only a thin veneer of barrier sand, averaging <3 m, that unconformably overlies shallow pre-Holocene facies. The prominence of barrier-spit facies and the distribution pattern of back-barrier sediments indicate that a high degree of segmentation, governed by antecedent topography, has affected the development of the Saco Bay barrier system. The present-day configuration of the barrier and back-barrier region along Saco Bay, however, conceals much of its early compartmentalized character.

  5. Is Echo a complex adaptive system?

    PubMed

    Smith, R M; Bedau, M A

    2000-01-01

    We evaluate whether John Holland's Echo model exemplifies his theory of complex adaptive systems. After reviewing Holland's theory of complex adaptive systems and describing his Escho model, we describe and explain the characteristic evolutionary behavior observed in a series of Echo model runs. We conclude that Echo lacks the diversity of hierarchically organized aggregates that typify complex adaptive systems, and we explore possible explanations for this failure.

  6. Proteins as paradigms of complex systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Fenimore, P. W.; Frauenfelder, Hans,; Young, R. D.

    2003-03-26

    The science of complexity has moved to center stage within the past few decades. Complex systems range from glasses to the immune system and the brain. Glasses are too simple to possess all aspects of complexity; brains are too complex to expose common concepts and laws of complexity. Proteins, however, are systems where many concepts and laws of complexity can be explored experimentally, theoretically, and computationally. Such studies have elucidated crucial aspects. The energy landscape has emerged as one central concept; it describes the free energy of a system as a function of temperature and the coordinates of all relevant atoms. A second concept is that of fluctuations. Without fluctuations, proteins would be dead and life impossible. A third concept is slaving. Proteins are not isolated systems; they are embedded in cells and membranes. Slaving arises when the fluctuations in the surroundings of a protein dominate many of the motions of the protein proper.

  7. Innovations in major system reconfiguration in England: a study of the effectiveness, acceptability and processes of implementation of two models of stroke care

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Significant changes in provision of clinical care within the English National Health Service (NHS) have been discussed in recent years, with proposals to concentrate specialist services in fewer centres. Stroke is a major public health issue, accounting for over 10% of deaths in England and Wales, and much disability among survivors. Variations have been highlighted in stroke care, with many patients not receiving evidence-based care. To address these concerns, stroke services in London and Greater Manchester were reorganised, although different models were implemented. This study will analyse processes involved in making significant changes to stroke care services over a short time period, and the factors influencing these processes. We will examine whether the changes have delivered improvements in quality of care and patient outcomes; and, in light of this, whether the significant extra financial investment represented good value for money. Methods/design This study brings together quantitative data on ‘what works and at what cost?’ with qualitative data on ‘understanding implementation and sustainability’ to understand major system change in two large conurbations in England. Data on processes of care and their outcomes (e.g. morbidity, mortality, and cost) will be analysed to evidence services’ performance before and after reconfiguration. The evaluation draws on theories related to the dissemination and sustainability of innovations and the ‘social matrix’ underlying processes of innovation. We will conduct a series of case studies based on stakeholder interviews and documentary analysis. These will identify drivers for change, how the reconfigurations were governed, developed, and implemented, and how they influenced service quality. Discussion The research faces challenges due to: the different timings of the reconfigurations; the retrospective nature of the evaluation; and the current organisational turbulence in the English NHS

  8. Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Rube B.

    2004-02-04

    Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

  9. Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Rube B.

    2004-02-01

    Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

  10. Using real-time syndromic surveillance systems to help explore the acute impact of the air pollution incident of March/April 2014 in England.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gillian E; Bawa, Zharain; Macklin, Yolande; Morbey, Roger; Dobney, Alec; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Elliot, Alex J

    2015-01-01

    During March and early April 2014 there was widespread poor air quality across the United Kingdom. Public Health England used existing syndromic surveillance systems to monitor community health during the period. Short lived statistically significant rises in a variety of respiratory conditions, including asthma and wheeze, were detected. This incident has demonstrated the value of real-time syndromic surveillance systems, during an air pollution episode, for helping to explore the impact of poor air quality on community health in real-time.

  11. Concentrations of hormones, pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants in groundwater affected by septic systems in New England and New York.

    PubMed

    Phillips, P J; Schubert, C; Argue, D; Fisher, I; Furlong, E T; Foreman, W; Gray, J; Chalmers, A

    2015-04-15

    Septic-system discharges can be an important source of micropollutants (including pharmaceuticals and endocrine active compounds) to adjacent groundwater and surface water systems. Groundwater samples were collected from well networks tapping glacial till in New England (NE) and sandy surficial aquifer New York (NY) during one sampling round in 2011. The NE network assesses the effect of a single large septic system that receives discharge from an extended health care facility for the elderly. The NY network assesses the effect of many small septic systems used seasonally on a densely populated portion of Fire Island. The data collected from these two networks indicate that hydrogeologic and demographic factors affect micropollutant concentrations in these systems. The highest micropollutant concentrations from the NE network were present in samples collected from below the leach beds and in a well downgradient of the leach beds. Total concentrations for personal care/domestic use compounds, pharmaceutical compounds and plasticizer compounds generally ranged from 1 to over 20 μg/L in the NE network samples. High tris(2-butoxyethyl phosphate) plasticizer concentrations in wells beneath and downgradient of the leach beds (>20 μg/L) may reflect the presence of this compound in cleaning agents at the extended health-care facility. The highest micropollutant concentrations for the NY network were present in the shoreline wells and reflect groundwater that is most affected by septic system discharges. One of the shoreline wells had personal care/domestic use, pharmaceutical, and plasticizer concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 5.7 μg/L. Estradiol equivalency quotient concentrations were also highest in a shoreline well sample (3.1 ng/L). Most micropollutant concentrations increase with increasing specific conductance and total nitrogen concentrations for shoreline well samples. These findings suggest that septic systems serving institutional settings and densely

  12. Scale effect in nutrient transport along a rural river system: the River Eden, Cumbria, northwest, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oladapo Tijani, Fatai; Bathurst, James; Quinn, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Only a limited amount of information derived from studies conducted at small catchment scales can be transferred to large scales because of the non-linear scale effects, thus necessitating studies (including nutrient concentrations and yields) across a range of scales. Here we present results from an investigation of spatial scale pattern and temporal variability of nutrient concentration in the River Eden in northwest England, a nested catchment stretching from Gais Gill (1.1 km2) to Great Corby (1373 km2). The monitoring involved seasonal campaigns and spot sampling of river water quality, using two United Kingdom national catchment study platforms. These are the Catchment Hydrology And Sustainable Management (CHASM) project, that provides a large spatial scale study platform along the Eden, and the Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) project that provides high resolution data for contrasting land uses that could help to explain, in detail, the mechanisms for transport of nutrients to the river. Nitrate concentration shows a clear increasing trend with the catchment area and there is highly significant difference (P<0.001) among the catchments. Compared with the headwater areas, phosphorus (P) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations are significantly higher (P<0.05) downstream but do not show a very clear spatial pattern. An alternative explanation was therefore sought for their distribution along the river. Generally, intensity of agricultural activities appears to influence the concentrations of these water quality parameters. The field data show that the amount of nutrients and suspended sediment is higher in catchments with higher farming activities. This underscores the importance of the distribution of agricultural land use as a driving force in nutrient transport in River Eden. Agricultural production generally increases downstream and may therefore appear to support a spatial scale dependency in nutrient yield. Higher nitrate concentration is associated

  13. Scale Effect in Nutrient Transport along a Rural River System: THE River Eden, Cumbria, Northwest, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tijani, F. O.; Bathurst, J. C.; Quinn, P. F.

    2014-12-01

    Only a limited amount of information derived from studies conducted at small catchment scales can be transferred to large scales because of the non-linear scale effects, thus necessitating studies (including nutrient concentrations and yields) across a range of scales. Here we present results from an investigation of spatial scale pattern and temporal variability of nutrient concentration in the River Eden in northwest England, a nested catchment stretching from Gais Gill (1.1 km2) to Great Corby (1373 km2). The monitoring involved seasonal campaigns and spot sampling of river water quality, using two United Kingdom national catchment study platforms. Nitrate concentration shows a clear increasing trend with the catchment area and there is highly significant difference (P<0.001) among the catchments. Compared with the headwater areas, phosphorus (P) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations are significantly higher (P<0.05) downstream but do not show a very clear spatial pattern. An alternative explanation was therefore sought for their distribution along the river. Generally, intensity of agricultural activities appears to influence the concentrations of these water quality parameters. The field data show that the amount of nutrients and suspended sediment is higher in catchments with higher farming activities and this increase downstream. This underscores the importance of the distribution of agricultural land use as a driving force in nutrient transport in River Eden. Higher nitrate concentration is associated with the period of low flow (strongest negative relationship, R2 = 0.97, was recorded in autumn sampling campaign at a gauging station). In contrast, phosphorus and suspended sediment are positively associated with discharge (strongest relationship (R2= 0.97) for total P were recorded in spring campaign at a gauging station). Similarly the dryness or wetness of a season affects the nutrient concentrations. Thus, it appears that hydrology and land use

  14. 30-day mortality after systemic anticancer treatment for breast and lung cancer in England: a population-based, observational study.

    PubMed

    Wallington, Michael; Saxon, Emma B; Bomb, Martine; Smittenaar, Rebecca; Wickenden, Matthew; McPhail, Sean; Rashbass, Jem; Chao, David; Dewar, John; Talbot, Denis; Peake, Michael; Perren, Timothy; Wilson, Charles; Dodwell, David

    2016-09-01

    30-day mortality might be a useful indicator of avoidable harm to patients from systemic anticancer treatments, but data for this indicator are limited. The Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy (SACT) dataset collated by Public Health England allows the assessment of factors affecting 30-day mortality in a national patient population. The aim of this first study based on the SACT dataset was to establish national 30-day mortality benchmarks for breast and lung cancer patients receiving SACT in England, and to start to identify where patient care could be improved. In this population-based study, we included all women with breast cancer and all men and women with lung cancer residing in England, who were 24 years or older and who started a cycle of SACT in 2014 irrespective of the number of previous treatment cycles or programmes, and irrespective of their position within the disease trajectory. We calculated 30-day mortality after the most recent cycle of SACT for those patients. We did logistic regression analyses, adjusting for relevant factors, to examine whether patient, tumour, or treatment-related factors were associated with the risk of 30-day mortality. For each cancer type and intent, we calculated 30-day mortality rates and patient volume at the hospital trust level, and contrasted these in a funnel plot. Between Jan 1, and Dec, 31, 2014, we included 23 228 patients with breast cancer and 9634 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in our regression and trust-level analyses. 30-day mortality increased with age for both patients with breast cancer and patients with NSCLC treated with curative intent, and decreased with age for patients receiving palliative SACT (breast curative: odds ratio [OR] 1·085, 99% CI 1·040-1·132; p<0·0001; NSCLC curative: 1·045, 1·013-1·079; p=0·00033; breast palliative: 0·987, 0·977-0·996; p=0·00034; NSCLC palliative: 0·987, 0·976-0·998; p=0·0015). 30-day mortality was also significantly higher for patients

  15. Social networks as embedded complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Benham-Hutchins, Marge; Clancy, Thomas R

    2010-09-01

    As systems evolve over time, their natural tendency is to become increasingly more complex. Studies in the field of complex systems have generated new perspectives on management in social organizations such as hospitals. Much of this research appears as a natural extension of the cross-disciplinary field of systems theory. This is the 15th in a series of articles applying complex systems science to the traditional management concepts of planning, organizing, directing, coordinating, and controlling. In this article, the authors discuss healthcare social networks as a hierarchy of embedded complex adaptive systems. The authors further examine the use of social network analysis tools as a means to understand complex communication patterns and reduce medical errors.

  16. Nervous System Complexity Baffles Scientists.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Jeffrey L.

    1982-01-01

    New research findings about how nerve cells transmit signals are forcing researchers to overhaul their simplistic ideas about the nervous system. Topics highlighted include the multiple role of peptides in the nervous system, receptor molecules, and molecules that form ion channels within membranes. (Author/JN)

  17. Nervous System Complexity Baffles Scientists.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Jeffrey L.

    1982-01-01

    New research findings about how nerve cells transmit signals are forcing researchers to overhaul their simplistic ideas about the nervous system. Topics highlighted include the multiple role of peptides in the nervous system, receptor molecules, and molecules that form ion channels within membranes. (Author/JN)

  18. The Ontologies of Complexity and Learning about Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Michael J.; Kapur, Manu; So, Hyo-Jeong; Lee, June

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses a study of students learning core conceptual perspectives from recent scientific research on complexity using a hypermedia learning environment in which different types of scaffolding were provided. Three comparison groups used a hypermedia system with agent-based models and scaffolds for problem-based learning activities that…

  19. The Ontologies of Complexity and Learning about Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Michael J.; Kapur, Manu; So, Hyo-Jeong; Lee, June

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses a study of students learning core conceptual perspectives from recent scientific research on complexity using a hypermedia learning environment in which different types of scaffolding were provided. Three comparison groups used a hypermedia system with agent-based models and scaffolds for problem-based learning activities that…

  20. Statistically Validated Networks in Bipartite Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tumminello, Michele; Miccichè, Salvatore; Lillo, Fabrizio; Piilo, Jyrki; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2011-01-01

    Many complex systems present an intrinsic bipartite structure where elements of one set link to elements of the second set. In these complex systems, such as the system of actors and movies, elements of one set are qualitatively different than elements of the other set. The properties of these complex systems are typically investigated by constructing and analyzing a projected network on one of the two sets (for example the actor network or the movie network). Complex systems are often very heterogeneous in the number of relationships that the elements of one set establish with the elements of the other set, and this heterogeneity makes it very difficult to discriminate links of the projected network that are just reflecting system's heterogeneity from links relevant to unveil the properties of the system. Here we introduce an unsupervised method to statistically validate each link of a projected network against a null hypothesis that takes into account system heterogeneity. We apply the method to a biological, an economic and a social complex system. The method we propose is able to detect network structures which are very informative about the organization and specialization of the investigated systems, and identifies those relationships between elements of the projected network that cannot be explained simply by system heterogeneity. We also show that our method applies to bipartite systems in which different relationships might have different qualitative nature, generating statistically validated networks in which such difference is preserved. PMID:21483858

  1. Ontology of Earth's nonlinear dynamic complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babaie, Hassan; Davarpanah, Armita

    2017-04-01

    As a complex system, Earth and its major integrated and dynamically interacting subsystems (e.g., hydrosphere, atmosphere) display nonlinear behavior in response to internal and external influences. The Earth Nonlinear Dynamic Complex Systems (ENDCS) ontology formally represents the semantics of the knowledge about the nonlinear system element (agent) behavior, function, and structure, inter-agent and agent-environment feedback loops, and the emergent collective properties of the whole complex system as the result of interaction of the agents with other agents and their environment. It also models nonlinear concepts such as aperiodic, random chaotic behavior, sensitivity to initial conditions, bifurcation of dynamic processes, levels of organization, self-organization, aggregated and isolated functionality, and emergence of collective complex behavior at the system level. By incorporating several existing ontologies, the ENDCS ontology represents the dynamic system variables and the rules of transformation of their state, emergent state, and other features of complex systems such as the trajectories in state (phase) space (attractor and strange attractor), basins of attractions, basin divide (separatrix), fractal dimension, and system's interface to its environment. The ontology also defines different object properties that change the system behavior, function, and structure and trigger instability. ENDCS will help to integrate the data and knowledge related to the five complex subsystems of Earth by annotating common data types, unifying the semantics of shared terminology, and facilitating interoperability among different fields of Earth science.

  2. Cholinesterase inhibitors and incidence of bradycardia in patients with dementia in the veterans affairs new England healthcare system.

    PubMed

    Hernandez, Rohini K; Farwell, Wildon; Cantor, Michael D; Lawler, Elizabeth V

    2009-11-01

    To quantify the association between cholinesterase inhibitors (ChE-Is) and a new diagnosis of bradycardia and to evaluate the clinical significance of bradycardia. Cox proportional hazards with time-dependent exposures were used to evaluate the association and examine the dose effect for donepezil and bradycardia. New England Veterans Affairs Healthcare System. Patients with dementia who received care between January 1999 and June 2007 (N=11,328). Bradycardia was defined using three methods using a combination of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes and recorded heart rates of less than 60 beats per minute. A greater risk for bradycardia was found in patients taking any ChE-Is than in the no-treatment group (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.1-1.6). A dose-response effect was observed for donepezil, with the highest-dose group at greatest risk (HR=2.1, 95% CI=1.5-2.9). Results were consistent regardless of bradycardia definition. Patients with bradycardia were more likely to fall, experience syncope, or need a pacemaker implantation than those without. Using a large cohort, a modestly greater risk of bradycardia was found in patients with dementia taking ChE-Is than in those not taking these drugs. In patients taking donepezil, the risk of bradycardia may increase with increasing doses. Because of the potential clinical consequences, monitoring for bradycardia may be warranted in patients with dementia treated with ChE-Is.

  3. Monitoring Performance of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, W. F.

    1985-01-01

    33-page report describes use of computers in automatic on-line monitoring of Centaur rocket prior to launch. Computers analyze measurements and verify events and commands. System uses adaptive software so only real problems are detected and brought to attention of engineers. Software techniques transferable to such industrial uses as batch process control and production line automation.

  4. Simple molecules as complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Furtenbacher, Tibor; Árendás, Péter; Mellau, Georg; Császár, Attila G.

    2014-01-01

    For individual molecules quantum mechanics (QM) offers a simple, natural and elegant way to build large-scale complex networks: quantized energy levels are the nodes, allowed transitions among the levels are the links, and transition intensities supply the weights. QM networks are intrinsic properties of molecules and they are characterized experimentally via spectroscopy; thus, realizations of QM networks are called spectroscopic networks (SN). As demonstrated for the rovibrational states of H216O, the molecule governing the greenhouse effect on earth through hundreds of millions of its spectroscopic transitions (links), both the measured and first-principles computed one-photon absorption SNs containing experimentally accessible transitions appear to have heavy-tailed degree distributions. The proposed novel view of high-resolution spectroscopy and the observed degree distributions have important implications: appearance of a core of highly interconnected hubs among the nodes, a generally disassortative connection preference, considerable robustness and error tolerance, and an “ultra-small-world” property. The network-theoretical view of spectroscopy offers a data reduction facility via a minimum-weight spanning tree approach, which can assist high-resolution spectroscopists to improve the efficiency of the assignment of their measured spectra. PMID:24722221

  5. Palaeostress and strain estimates from boudinage structure and their bearing on the evolution of a major Variscan fold-thrust complex in Southwest England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferguson, Colin C.; Lloyd, Geoffrey E.

    1982-10-01

    This paper develops a mesoscopic approach to palaeostress estimation based on applying a new "fibre-loading" type theory to boudinage structure. The theory implies that, if boudinage develops by a sequential fracture and separation process, the distribution of boudin aspect ratios should be controlled by a critical ratio below which the tensile stress cannot exceed the tensile fracture strength of the boudinaged layer. Simulations based on distributions of tensile fracture strength and elastic moduli (derived from published experimental work) allow a distribution of boudin aspect ratios to be predicted. This compares very favourably with the observed aspect ratio distribution of quartzite boudins within Lower Carboniferous slates at the southern margin of the Culm Synclinorium, southwest England. Hence the new theory can be used to derive an estimate of the elastically supported differential stress in the slates at the time of boudinage development. An associated palaeostrain analysis is also performed using a new strain reversal method. The boudinage occurs just below the base of a major fold-thrust complex, essentially a large overfold of Namurian and Westphalian rocks emplaced at the end of the Carboniferous over Devonian and Lower Carboniferous slates with thin quartzites and limestones. We interpret the boudinage in the quartzite layers as a gravitational spreading response to the superincumbent overfold. The thin limestones, however, show no competence contrast with the surrounding slates and we have therefore used a limestone flow law to estimate the rate of vertical shortening beneath the overfold. Using our boudinage strain value, we then estimate that the overfold took between 0.75 and 1.5 Ma to evolve, probably during the Stephanian.

  6. Data Analysis of Complex Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    is very commonly used in the pulp and paper industry . Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited...strands of cellulose (organic plant material) called fibers. Eventually, the old paper turns into pulp . Water is brought into the system to keep the...huge flat wire screen which is moving very quickly through the paper machine. While on the screen, water starts to drain from the pulp , and the

  7. Intelligent Complex Evolutionary Agent-Based Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iantovics, Barna; Enǎchescu, Cǎlin

    2009-04-01

    In this paper, we investigate the possibility to develop intelligent agent-based complex systems that use evolutionary learning techniques in order to adapt for the efficient solving of the problems by reorganizing their structure. For this investigation is proposed a complex multiagent system called EAMS (Evolutionary Adaptive Multiagent System), which using an evolutionary learning technique can learn different patterns of reorganization. The realized study proves that evolutionary techniques successfully can be used to create complex multiagent systems capable to intelligently reorganize their structure during their life cycle. The practical establishment of the intelligence of a computational system in generally, an agent-based system in particularly consists in how efficiently and flexibly the system can solve difficult problems.

  8. Prediction and characterization of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mainieri, R.; Baer, M.; Brand, H.

    1996-10-01

    Complex systems are difficult to characterize and to simulate. By considering a series of explicit systems, through experiments and analysis, this project has shown that dynamical systems can be used to model complex systems. A complex dynamical system requires an exponential amount of computer work to simulate accurately. Direct methods are not practical and it is only by an hierarchical approach that one can gain control over the exponential behavior. This allows the development of efficient methods to study fluid flow and to simulate biological systems. There are two steps in the hierarchical approach. First, one must characterize the complex system as a collection of large domains or objects that have their own forms of interactions. This is done by considering coherent structures, such as solitons, spirals, and propagating fronts and determining their interactions. Second, one must be able to predict the properties of the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system.This is accomplished by an understanding of the topology of the orbits of the dynamical system. The coherent structure description was carried out in fluid and reaction diffusion systems. It was shown that very simple models from statistical mechanics could characterize a rotating Rayleigh-Benard system and that patters in reaction-diffusion systems are well described by soliton-like solutions. The studies of dynamical systems showed that simple characterizations of the phase space can be used to determine long time bounds. Also, that periodic orbit theory can be used to demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulations will converge to incorrect results.

  9. A new laboratory-based surveillance system (Respiratory DataMart System) for influenza and other respiratory viruses in England: results and experience from 2009 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Zhao, H; Green, H; Lackenby, A; Donati, M; Ellis, J; Thompson, C; Bermingham, A; Field, J; Sebastianpillai, P; Zambon, M; Watson, Jm; Pebody, R

    2014-01-23

    During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, a new laboratory-based virological sentinel surveillance system, the Respiratory DataMart System (RDMS), was established in a network of 14 Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England (PHE)) and National Health Service (NHS) laboratories in England. Laboratory results (both positive and negative) were systematically collected from all routinely tested clinical respiratory samples for a range of respiratory viruses including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). The RDMS also monitored the occurrence of antiviral resistance of influenza viruses. Data from the RDMS for the 2009–2012 period showed that the 2009 pandemic influenza virus caused three waves of activity with different intensities during the pandemic and post pandemic periods. Peaks in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 positivity (defined as number of positive samples per total number of samples tested) were seen in summer and autumn in 2009, with slightly higher peak positivity observed in the first post-pandemic season in 2010/2011. The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strain almost completely disappeared in the second postpandemic season in 2011/2012. The RDMS findings are consistent with other existing community-based virological and clinical surveillance systems. With a large sample size, this new system provides a robust supplementary mechanism, through the collection of routinely available laboratory data at minimum extra cost, to monitor influenza as well as other respiratory virus activity. A near real-time, daily reporting mechanism in the RDMS was established during the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Furthermore, this system can be quickly adapted and used to monitor future influenza pandemics and other major outbreaks of respiratory infectious disease, including novel pathogens.

  10. The Self as a Complex Dynamic System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the potential offered by complexity theories for understanding language learners' sense of self and attempts to show how the self might usefully be conceived of as a complex dynamic system. Rather than presenting empirical findings, the article discusses existent research on the self and aims at outlining a conceptual…

  11. Active impedance matching of complex structural systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macmartin, Douglas G.; Miller, David W.; Hall, Steven R.

    1991-01-01

    Viewgraphs on active impedance matching of complex structural systems are presented. Topics covered include: traveling wave model; dereverberated mobility model; computation of dereverberated mobility; control problem: optimal impedance matching; H2 optimal solution; statistical energy analysis (SEA) solution; experimental transfer functions; interferometer actuator and sensor locations; active strut configurations; power dual variables; dereverberation of complex structure; dereverberated transfer function; compensators; and relative power flow.

  12. Quantum mechanics in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoehn, Ross Douglas

    This document should be considered in its separation; there are three distinct topics contained within and three distinct chapters within the body of works. In a similar fashion, this abstract should be considered in three parts. Firstly, we explored the existence of multiply-charged atomic ions by having developed a new set of dimensional scaling equations as well as a series of relativistic augmentations to the standard dimensional scaling procedure and to the self-consistent field calculations. Secondly, we propose a novel method of predicting drug efficacy in hopes to facilitate the discovery of new small molecule therapeutics by modeling the agonist-protein system as being similar to the process of Inelastic Electron Tunneling Spectroscopy. Finally, we facilitate the instruction in basic quantum mechanical topics through the use of quantum games; this method of approach allows for the generation of exercises with the intent of conveying the fundamental concepts within a first year quantum mechanics classroom. Furthermore, no to be mentioned within the body of the text, yet presented in appendix form, certain works modeling the proliferation of cells types within the confines of man-made lattices for the purpose of facilitating artificial vascular transplants. In Chapter 2, we present a theoretical framework which describes multiply-charged atomic ions, their stability within super-intense laser fields, also lay corrections to the systems due to relativistic effects. Dimensional scaling calculations with relativistic corrections for systems: H, H-, H 2-, He, He-, He2-, He3- within super-intense laser fields were completed. Also completed were three-dimensional self consistent field calculations to verify the dimensionally scaled quantities. With the aforementioned methods the system's ability to stably bind 'additional' electrons through the development of multiple isolated regions of high potential energy leading to nodes of high electron density is shown

  13. Hierarchical Models of the Nearshore Complex System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-01-01

    unclassified unclassified /,andard Form 7 7Qien. -pii Prescrbed by ANS Sid 239-18 zgB -10z Hierarchical Models of the Nearshore Complex System: Final...TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS Hierarchical Models of the Nearshore Complex System N00014-02-1-0358 6. AUTHOR(S) Brad Werner 7. PERFORMING...8217 ........... The long-term goal of this reasearch was to develop and test predictive models for nearshore processes. This grant was terminaton funding for the

  14. What Is the Proposed Role of Research Evidence in England's "Self-Improving" School System?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Godfrey, David

    2017-01-01

    This article examines the English government's vision for how research is proposed to lead to improvements in the system in the context of a school-led, self-improving system and rapid and sweeping legislative reforms. The debate about the role of research in the teaching profession has been sharpened by a large consultation effort in the academic…

  15. Prospective evaluation of a complex public health intervention: lessons from an initial and follow-up cross-sectional survey of the tuberculosis strain typing service in England.

    PubMed

    Mears, Jessica; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Crisp, Debbie; Maguire, Helen; Innes, John A; Lilley, Mike; Lord, Joanne; Cohen, Ted; Borgdorff, Martien W; Vynnycky, Emilia; McHugh, Timothy D; Sonnenberg, Pam

    2014-10-02

    The national tuberculosis strain typing service (TB-STS) was introduced in England in 2010. The TB-STS involves MIRU-VNTR typing of isolates from all TB patients for the prospective identification, reporting and investigation of TB strain typing clusters. As part of a mixed-method evaluation, we report on a repeated cross-sectional survey to illustrate the challenges surrounding the evaluation of a complex national public health intervention. An online initial and follow-up questionnaire survey assessed the knowledge, attitudes and practices of public health staff, physicians and nurses working in TB control in November 2010 and March 2012. It included questions on the implementation, experience and uptake of the TB-STS. Participants that responded to both surveys were included in the analysis. 248 participants responded to the initial survey and 137 of these responded to the follow-up survey (56% retention). Knowledge: A significant increase in knowledge was observed, including a rise in the proportion of respondents who had received training (28.6% to 67.9%, p = 0.003), and the self-rated knowledge of how to use strain typing had improved ('no knowledge' decreased from 43.2% to 27.4%). Attitudes: The majority of respondents found strain typing useful; the proportion that reported strain typing to be useful was similar across the two surveys (95.7% to 94.7%, p = 0.67). Practices: There were significant increases between the initial and follow-up surveys in the number of respondents who reported using strain typing (57.0% to 80.5%, p < 0.001) and the proportion of time health protection staff spent on investigating TB (2.74% to 7.08%, p = 0.04). Evaluation of a complex public health intervention is challenging. In this example, the immediate national roll-out of the TB-STS meant that a controlled survey design was not possible. This study informs the future development of the TB-STS by identifying the need for training to reach wider professional groups, and argues

  16. What Is a Complex Innovation System?

    PubMed

    Katz, J Sylvan

    2016-01-01

    Innovation systems are sometimes referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale-invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxα, where the exponent, α, is a measure of scale-invariance. The focus of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system. In particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature that can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. Citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. It is demonstrated that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time and decreasing group sizes. Scale-invariant correlations are shown between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. The recursive or self-similar nature of scale-invariance suggests that any smaller innovation system within the global research system is likely to be complex with scale-invariant properties too.

  17. What Is a Complex Innovation System?

    PubMed Central

    Katz, J. Sylvan

    2016-01-01

    Innovation systems are sometimes referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale-invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxα, where the exponent, α, is a measure of scale-invariance. The focus of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system. In particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature that can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. Citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. It is demonstrated that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time and decreasing group sizes. Scale-invariant correlations are shown between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. The recursive or self-similar nature of scale-invariance suggests that any smaller innovation system within the global research system is likely to be complex with scale-invariant properties too. PMID:27258040

  18. Royal Society, Discussion on Rotation in the Solar System, London, England, March 8, 9, 1984, Proceedings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hide, R.

    1984-11-01

    The classical mechanics of rotation (R) in the present solar system and during its evolution is examined in theoretical studies and reviews of observational data. Topics discussed include R in the early solar system, R/magnetic-field interactions, the R of the sun, long-term changes in the R of the earth, tidal friction in the earth-moon system, the R of the atmospheres of the earth and planets, R and internal structures of the major planets and their inner satellites, the R of the Uranian system, the R of Hyperion, asteroid R rates, R of cometary nuclei, and the R of the earth inner core. Graphs, diagrams, tables, and photographs are provided.

  19. Local Authorities and the Education of Young People with Sickle Cell Disorders in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyson, S. M.; Abuateya, H.; Atkin, K.; Culley, L. A.; Dyson, S. E.; Rowley, D. T.

    2008-01-01

    The successful inclusion of minority ethnic pupils with sickle cell disorders (SCD) raises a number of challenges for educational systems. In England, local education authorities were important drivers for innovative responses to complex needs and the former Inner London Education Authority produced guidance in 1989 on SCD in schools. Local…

  20. Local Authorities and the Education of Young People with Sickle Cell Disorders in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyson, S. M.; Abuateya, H.; Atkin, K.; Culley, L. A.; Dyson, S. E.; Rowley, D. T.

    2008-01-01

    The successful inclusion of minority ethnic pupils with sickle cell disorders (SCD) raises a number of challenges for educational systems. In England, local education authorities were important drivers for innovative responses to complex needs and the former Inner London Education Authority produced guidance in 1989 on SCD in schools. Local…

  1. Networking Hospital ePrescribing: A Systemic View of Digitalization of Medicines' Use in England.

    PubMed

    Lichtner, Valentina; Hibberd, Ralph; Cornford, Tony

    2016-01-01

    Medicine management is at the core of hospital care and digitalization of prescribing and administration of medicines is often the focus of attention of health IT programs. This may be conveyed to the public in terms of the elimination of paper-based drug charts and increased readability of doctors' prescriptions. Based on analysis of documents about hospital medicines supply and use (including systems' implementation) in the UK, in this conceptual paper electronic prescribing and administration are repositioned as only one aspect of an important wider transformation in medicine management in hospital settings, involving, for example, procurement, dispensing, auditing, waste management, research and safety vigilance. Approaching digitalization from a systemic perspective has the potential to uncover the wider implications of this transformation for patients, the organization and the wider health care system.

  2. Auto Action Learning: a tool for policy change. Building capacity across the developing regional system to improve health in the North East of England.

    PubMed

    Learmonth, Alyson; Pedler, Mike

    2004-05-01

    Health policy traditionally has tended to focus on health care policy. The World Health Organisation Investment for Health approach aims to influence policy development by locating health as both the outcome of, and an asset for, sustainable economic and social development. The policy context in England offers a range of drivers and opportunities to operationalise the Investment for Health approach through action to improve health and reduce inequalities, nationally and as importantly at a regional and local level. This paper traces developments in the North East of England April 2002-November 2002, from the perspective of an advocate for developing a systemic and systematic approach using an Investment for Health approach. The tool used to track change is based in action learning [M. Pedler, Action Learning for Managers, Lemos and Crane, London, 1996]. The Action Learning Problem Brief identifies why the goal is important, who to, how progress might be identified, difficulties and benefits. Generally, this acts as a starting point for problem solving within an Action Learning Set. This piece of work uses the framework for reflection and tracking, with input from a mentor, at four to eight weekly intervals, 'Auto Action Learning'. The authors pull out key learning points from the process, using a framework 'Towards a model for systematic learning from doing in the North East of England'.

  3. A review of the coroner system in England and Wales: a commentary.

    PubMed

    Berry, Colin; Heaton-Armstrong, Anthony

    2005-01-01

    The certification of deaths and their investigation is flawed and has not been subject to comprehensive revision for many decades; the current system is fragmented. Despite its historical 'stability', it is poorly understood by many who have to use it and the lack of supervisory structures within the system means that there is no leadership, accountability or quality assurance. No formal linkage to or communication with other public health services and systems exists, minimising its epidemiological value. There is a lack of clear participation rights in these processes for bereaved families. The standards for the treatment and support of the bereaved are woefully inadequate and have contributed in a major way to certain causes celebres. A report in 2003 suggested that death investigation should be a service that is consistent and professional, able to deal effectively with legal and health issues, work across the full range of concerns about public health and public safety and support, and audit the death certification process. The role of those supporting the current system must be properly established in a framework of accountability.

  4. Geospatial assessments of cropping systems and farmland assemblages in New England

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Detailed assessments of the current state of crop production systems are essential to modeling potential productivity and evaluating core issues of sustainability for local to regional food supply studies. The main objective of this regionally-based geospatial investigation was to evaluate the most ...

  5. Ofsted's Role in Promoting School Improvement: The Mechanisms of the School Inspection System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Karen; Tymms, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Most countries across Europe now have their own Inspectorate as part of a school improvement and accountability system. However, there has been little research on the impact of school inspections or on the aspects of school inspections that maximise the positive effects and minimise the unintended consequences. As a precursor to further research,…

  6. The Environmental Belief Systems of Organic and Conventional Farmers: Evidence from Central-Southern England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kings, David; Ilbery, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Little comparative work has been conducted on the environmental belief systems and behaviours of conventional and organic farmers, especially in relation to farming culture, the environment and lowland farmland avifauna. Adopting a modified behavioural approach, this paper analyses the ways in which the environmental attitudes and understandings…

  7. The Environmental Belief Systems of Organic and Conventional Farmers: Evidence from Central-Southern England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kings, David; Ilbery, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Little comparative work has been conducted on the environmental belief systems and behaviours of conventional and organic farmers, especially in relation to farming culture, the environment and lowland farmland avifauna. Adopting a modified behavioural approach, this paper analyses the ways in which the environmental attitudes and understandings…

  8. Defining Health in the Era of Value-based Care: Lessons from England of Relevance to Other Health Systems

    PubMed Central

    Badrinath, Padmanabhan

    2017-01-01

    The demand for healthcare is rising due to aging populations, rising chronic disease prevalence, and technological innovations. There are currently more effective and cost-effective interventions available than can be afforded within limited budgets. A new way of thinking about the optimal use of resources is needed. Ensuring that available resources are used for interventions that provide outcomes that patient’s most value, rather than a focus just on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, may help to ensure that resources are used optimally. Value-based healthcare puts what patients value at the center of healthcare. It helps ensure that they receive the care that can provide them with outcomes they think are important and that limited resources are focused on high-value interventions. In order to do this, we need flexible definitions of ‘health’, personalized and tailored to patient values. We review the current status of value-based health care in England and identify lessons applicable to a variety of health systems. For this, we draw upon the work of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the National Health Service (NHS), Right Care Initiative, and our local experience in promoting value-based health care for specific conditions in our region. Combining the best available evidence with open and honest dialogue between patients, clinicians, and others, whilst requiring considerable time and resources are essential to building a consensus around the value that allows the best use of limited budgets. Values have been present in healthcare since its beginnings. Placing value and values at the center of healthcare could help to ensure available resources are used to provide the greatest possible benefit to patients. PMID:28405529

  9. Introducing Complex Systems into the Mathematics Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    English, Lyn D.

    2008-01-01

    Children live in a highly sophisticated world composed of interlocking complex systems. An appreciation and understanding of such systems is critical for making effective decisions about everyone's lives as individuals and as community members. This article addresses one approach to introducing children of all achievement levels to introductory…

  10. System Complexity Reduction via Feature Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deng, Houtao

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation transforms a set of system complexity reduction problems to feature selection problems. Three systems are considered: classification based on association rules, network structure learning, and time series classification. Furthermore, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree…

  11. System Complexity Reduction via Feature Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deng, Houtao

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation transforms a set of system complexity reduction problems to feature selection problems. Three systems are considered: classification based on association rules, network structure learning, and time series classification. Furthermore, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree…

  12. Large-scale systems: Complexity, stability, reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siljak, D. D.

    1975-01-01

    After showing that a complex dynamic system with a competitive structure has highly reliable stability, a class of noncompetitive dynamic systems for which competitive models can be constructed is defined. It is shown that such a construction is possible in the context of the hierarchic stability analysis. The scheme is based on the comparison principle and vector Liapunov functions.

  13. Rebels against the System: Leadership Agency and Curriculum Innovation in the Context of School Autonomy and Accountability in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greany, Toby; Waterhouse, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyse the development of school autonomy, school leadership and curriculum innovation in England over the past 40 years. It provides a baseline picture for the wider international study on school autonomy and curriculum innovation. Design/methodology/approach: An initial literature review was…

  14. The Influence of Overseas Examples on DES Policy-Making for the School System in England, 1985-1995

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, George; Exley, Sonia

    2006-01-01

    Claims are often made in British education about the extent to which policy reforms have been "borrowed" from overseas. Based on interviews with senior civil servants and HMI, this paper addresses the extent to which such claims apply to central government educational policy-making at school level in England between 1985 and 1995. This…

  15. Rebels against the System: Leadership Agency and Curriculum Innovation in the Context of School Autonomy and Accountability in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greany, Toby; Waterhouse, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyse the development of school autonomy, school leadership and curriculum innovation in England over the past 40 years. It provides a baseline picture for the wider international study on school autonomy and curriculum innovation. Design/methodology/approach: An initial literature review was…

  16. Design tools for complex dynamic security systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Byrne, Raymond Harry; Rigdon, James Brian; Rohrer, Brandon Robinson; Laguna, Glenn A.; Robinett, Rush D. III; Groom, Kenneth Neal; Wilson, David Gerald; Bickerstaff, Robert J.; Harrington, John J.

    2007-01-01

    The development of tools for complex dynamic security systems is not a straight forward engineering task but, rather, a scientific task where discovery of new scientific principles and math is necessary. For years, scientists have observed complex behavior but have had difficulty understanding it. Prominent examples include: insect colony organization, the stock market, molecular interactions, fractals, and emergent behavior. Engineering such systems will be an even greater challenge. This report explores four tools for engineered complex dynamic security systems: Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, Percolation Theory, Graph Theory, and Exergy/Entropy Theory. Additionally, enabling hardware technology for next generation security systems are described: a 100 node wireless sensor network, unmanned ground vehicle and unmanned aerial vehicle.

  17. Vacuum Ultraviolet Photoionization of Complex Chemical Systems.

    PubMed

    Kostko, Oleg; Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit; Ahmed, Musahid

    2016-05-27

    Tunable vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation coupled to mass spectrometry is applied to the study of complex chemical systems. The identification of novel reactive intermediates and radicals is revealed in flame, pulsed photolysis, and pyrolysis reactors, leading to the elucidation of spectroscopy, reaction mechanisms, and kinetics. Mass-resolved threshold photoelectron photoion coincidence measurements provide unprecedented access to vibrationally resolved spectra of free radicals present in high-temperature reactors. Photoionization measurements in water clusters, nucleic acid base dimers, and their complexes with water provide signatures of proton transfer in hydrogen-bonded and π-stacked systems. Experimental and theoretical methods to track ion-molecule reactions and fragmentation pathways in intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen-bonded systems in sugars and alcohols are described. Photoionization of laser-ablated molecules, clusters, and their reaction products inform thermodynamics and spectroscopy that are relevant to astrochemistry and catalysis. New directions in coupling VUV radiation to interrogate complex chemical systems are discussed.

  18. Vacuum Ultraviolet Photoionization of Complex Chemical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostko, Oleg; Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit; Ahmed, Musahid

    2016-05-01

    Tunable vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation coupled to mass spectrometry is applied to the study of complex chemical systems. The identification of novel reactive intermediates and radicals is revealed in flame, pulsed photolysis, and pyrolysis reactors, leading to the elucidation of spectroscopy, reaction mechanisms, and kinetics. Mass-resolved threshold photoelectron photoion coincidence measurements provide unprecedented access to vibrationally resolved spectra of free radicals present in high-temperature reactors. Photoionization measurements in water clusters, nucleic acid base dimers, and their complexes with water provide signatures of proton transfer in hydrogen-bonded and π-stacked systems. Experimental and theoretical methods to track ion-molecule reactions and fragmentation pathways in intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen-bonded systems in sugars and alcohols are described. Photoionization of laser-ablated molecules, clusters, and their reaction products inform thermodynamics and spectroscopy that are relevant to astrochemistry and catalysis. New directions in coupling VUV radiation to interrogate complex chemical systems are discussed.

  19. Particlelike wave packets in complex scattering systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gérardin, Benoît; Laurent, Jérôme; Ambichl, Philipp; Prada, Claire; Rotter, Stefan; Aubry, Alexandre

    2016-07-01

    A wave packet undergoes a strong spatial and temporal dispersion while propagating through a complex medium. This wave scattering is often seen as a nightmare in wave physics whether it be for focusing, imaging, or communication purposes. Controlling wave propagation through complex systems is thus of fundamental interest in many areas, ranging from optics or acoustics to medical imaging or telecommunications. Here, we study the propagation of elastic waves in a cavity and a disordered waveguide by means of laser interferometry. From the direct experimental access to the time-delay matrix of these systems, we demonstrate the existence of particlelike wave packets that remain focused in time and space throughout their complex trajectory. Due to their limited dispersion, their selective excitation will be crucially relevant for all applications involving selective wave focusing and efficient information transfer through complex media.

  20. Integrated Reconfigurable Intelligent Systems (IRIS) for Complex Naval Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-02-23

    FINAL REPORT (February 24, 2010 - February 23, 2011) "Integrated Reconfigurable Intelligent Systems ( IRIS ) for Complex Naval Systems" Contract...RECONFIGURABLE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS ( IRIS ) FOR COMPLEX NAVAL SYSTEMS 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER N00014-10-1-0629 5b. GRANT NUMBER N/A 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...ASDL in developing and applying the IRIS concept for 1. The main effort is to develop an integrated dynamic standing the behavior of the next

  1. [Complex biotechnical feedback in electrostimulation systems].

    PubMed

    Osipov, A N; Dik, S K; Senkovskiĭ, K G

    2002-01-01

    Basic principles in design of electrostimulating equipment with complex biotechnical coupling combining biotechnical feedback and biological feedback are formulated. Realization of these principles in one system leads to qualitatively new capacities of enhancing the efficiency of implemented rehabilitative measures, which is the basis of the designed multichannel electromyostimulation device MYOS having a complex biotechnical feedback, which is used to treat a number of central and peripheral motor disorders (paralyses, pareses), to correct movements, to learn motor skills during training, etc.

  2. Fault detection and isolation for complex system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jing, Chan Shi; Bayuaji, Luhur; Samad, R.; Mustafa, M.; Abdullah, N. R. H.; Zain, Z. M.; Pebrianti, Dwi

    2017-07-01

    Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) is a method to monitor, identify, and pinpoint the type and location of system fault in a complex multiple input multiple output (MIMO) non-linear system. A two wheel robot is used as a complex system in this study. The aim of the research is to construct and design a Fault Detection and Isolation algorithm. The proposed method for the fault identification is using hybrid technique that combines Kalman filter and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The Kalman filter is able to recognize the data from the sensors of the system and indicate the fault of the system in the sensor reading. Error prediction is based on the fault magnitude and the time occurrence of fault. Additionally, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is another algorithm used to determine the type of fault and isolate the fault in the system.

  3. Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASOS) engineering environment.

    SciTech Connect

    Detry, Richard Joseph; Linebarger, John Michael; Finley, Patrick D.; Maffitt, S. Louise; Glass, Robert John, Jr.; Beyeler, Walter Eugene; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2012-02-01

    Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex physical-socio-technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation. The Phoenix initiative implements CASoS Engineering principles combining the bottom up Complex Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems view with the top down Systems Engineering and System-of-Systems view. CASoS Engineering theory and practice must be conducted together to develop a discipline that is grounded in reality, extends our understanding of how CASoS behave and allows us to better control the outcomes. The pull of applications (real world problems) is critical to this effort, as is the articulation of a CASoS Engineering Framework that grounds an engineering approach in the theory of complex adaptive systems of systems. Successful application of the CASoS Engineering Framework requires modeling, simulation and analysis (MS and A) capabilities and the cultivation of a CASoS Engineering Community of Practice through knowledge sharing and facilitation. The CASoS Engineering Environment, itself a complex adaptive system of systems, constitutes the two platforms that provide these capabilities.

  4. Complex system modelling for veterinary epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Lanzas, Cristina; Chen, Shi

    2015-02-01

    The use of mathematical models has a long tradition in infectious disease epidemiology. The nonlinear dynamics and complexity of pathogen transmission pose challenges in understanding its key determinants, in identifying critical points, and designing effective mitigation strategies. Mathematical modelling provides tools to explicitly represent the variability, interconnectedness, and complexity of systems, and has contributed to numerous insights and theoretical advances in disease transmission, as well as to changes in public policy, health practice, and management. In recent years, our modelling toolbox has considerably expanded due to the advancements in computing power and the need to model novel data generated by technologies such as proximity loggers and global positioning systems. In this review, we discuss the principles, advantages, and challenges associated with the most recent modelling approaches used in systems science, the interdisciplinary study of complex systems, including agent-based, network and compartmental modelling. Agent-based modelling is a powerful simulation technique that considers the individual behaviours of system components by defining a set of rules that govern how individuals ("agents") within given populations interact with one another and the environment. Agent-based models have become a recent popular choice in epidemiology to model hierarchical systems and address complex spatio-temporal dynamics because of their ability to integrate multiple scales and datasets.

  5. Toolsets Maintain Health of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2010-01-01

    First featured in Spinoff 2001, Qualtech Systems Inc. (QSI), of Wethersfield, Connecticut, adapted its Testability, Engineering, and Maintenance System (TEAMS) toolset under Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Ames Research Center to strengthen NASA's systems health management approach for its large, complex, and interconnected systems. Today, six NASA field centers utilize the TEAMS toolset, including TEAMS-Designer, TEAMS-RT, TEAMATE, and TEAMS-RDS. TEAMS is also being used on industrial systems that generate power, carry data, refine chemicals, perform medical functions, and produce semiconductor wafers. QSI finds TEAMS can lower costs by decreasing problems requiring service by 30 to 50 percent.

  6. Trends in modeling Biomedical Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Milanesi, Luciano; Romano, Paolo; Castellani, Gastone; Remondini, Daniel; Liò, Petro

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we provide an introduction to the techniques for multi-scale complex biological systems, from the single bio-molecule to the cell, combining theoretical modeling, experiments, informatics tools and technologies suitable for biological and biomedical research, which are becoming increasingly multidisciplinary, multidimensional and information-driven. The most important concepts on mathematical modeling methodologies and statistical inference, bioinformatics and standards tools to investigate complex biomedical systems are discussed and the prominent literature useful to both the practitioner and the theoretician are presented. PMID:19828068

  7. Emergent "Quantum" Theory in Complex Adaptive Systems.

    PubMed

    Minic, Djordje; Pajevic, Sinisa

    2016-04-30

    Motivated by the question of stability, in this letter we argue that an effective quantum-like theory can emerge in complex adaptive systems. In the concrete example of stochastic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, the relevant effective "Planck constant" associated with such emergent "quantum" theory has the dimensions of the square of the unit of time. Such an emergent quantum-like theory has inherently non-classical stability as well as coherent properties that are not, in principle, endangered by thermal fluctuations and therefore might be of crucial importance in complex adaptive systems.

  8. System crash as dynamics of complex networks.

    PubMed

    Yu, Yi; Xiao, Gaoxi; Zhou, Jie; Wang, Yubo; Wang, Zhen; Kurths, Jürgen; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2016-10-18

    Complex systems, from animal herds to human nations, sometimes crash drastically. Although the growth and evolution of systems have been extensively studied, our understanding of how systems crash is still limited. It remains rather puzzling why some systems, appearing to be doomed to fail, manage to survive for a long time whereas some other systems, which seem to be too big or too strong to fail, crash rapidly. In this contribution, we propose a network-based system dynamics model, where individual actions based on the local information accessible in their respective system structures may lead to the "peculiar" dynamics of system crash mentioned above. Extensive simulations are carried out on synthetic and real-life networks, which further reveal the interesting system evolution leading to the final crash. Applications and possible extensions of the proposed model are discussed.

  9. Complexity in electronic negotiation support systems.

    PubMed

    Griessmair, Michele; Strunk, Guido; Vetschera, Rudolf; Koeszegi, Sabine T

    2011-10-01

    It is generally acknowledged that the medium influences the way we communicate and negotiation research directs considerable attention to the impact of different electronic communication modes on the negotiation process and outcomes. Complexity theories offer models and methods that allow the investigation of how pattern and temporal sequences unfold over time in negotiation interactions. By focusing on the dynamic and interactive quality of negotiations as well as the information, choice, and uncertainty contained in the negotiation process, the complexity perspective addresses several issues of central interest in classical negotiation research. In the present study we compare the complexity of the negotiation communication process among synchronous and asynchronous negotiations (IM vs. e-mail) as well as an electronic negotiation support system including a decision support system (DSS). For this purpose, transcripts of 145 negotiations have been coded and analyzed with the Shannon entropy and the grammar complexity. Our results show that negotiating asynchronically via e-mail as well as including a DSS significantly reduces the complexity of the negotiation process. Furthermore, a reduction of the complexity increases the probability of reaching an agreement.

  10. Detection of timescales in evolving complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Darst, Richard K.; Granell, Clara; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Saramäki, Jari; Fortunato, Santo

    2016-01-01

    Most complex systems are intrinsically dynamic in nature. The evolution of a dynamic complex system is typically represented as a sequence of snapshots, where each snapshot describes the configuration of the system at a particular instant of time. This is often done by using constant intervals but a better approach would be to define dynamic intervals that match the evolution of the system’s configuration. To this end, we propose a method that aims at detecting evolutionary changes in the configuration of a complex system, and generates intervals accordingly. We show that evolutionary timescales can be identified by looking for peaks in the similarity between the sets of events on consecutive time intervals of data. Tests on simple toy models reveal that the technique is able to detect evolutionary timescales of time-varying data both when the evolution is smooth as well as when it changes sharply. This is further corroborated by analyses of several real datasets. Our method is scalable to extremely large datasets and is computationally efficient. This allows a quick, parameter-free detection of multiple timescales in the evolution of a complex system. PMID:28004820

  11. Mapping complex traits as a dynamic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Lidan; Wu, Rongling

    2015-06-01

    Despite increasing emphasis on the genetic study of quantitative traits, we are still far from being able to chart a clear picture of their genetic architecture, given an inherent complexity involved in trait formation. A competing theory for studying such complex traits has emerged by viewing their phenotypic formation as a "system" in which a high-dimensional group of interconnected components act and interact across different levels of biological organization from molecules through cells to whole organisms. This system is initiated by a machinery of DNA sequences that regulate a cascade of biochemical pathways to synthesize endophenotypes and further assemble these endophenotypes toward the end-point phenotype in virtue of various developmental changes. This review focuses on a conceptual framework for genetic mapping of complex traits by which to delineate the underlying components, interactions and mechanisms that govern the system according to biological principles and understand how these components function synergistically under the control of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) to comprise a unified whole. This framework is built by a system of differential equations that quantifies how alterations of different components lead to the global change of trait development and function, and provides a quantitative and testable platform for assessing the multiscale interplay between QTLs and development. The method will enable geneticists to shed light on the genetic complexity of any biological system and predict, alter or engineer its physiological and pathological states.

  12. Mapping complex traits as a dynamic system.

    PubMed

    Sun, Lidan; Wu, Rongling

    2015-06-01

    Despite increasing emphasis on the genetic study of quantitative traits, we are still far from being able to chart a clear picture of their genetic architecture, given an inherent complexity involved in trait formation. A competing theory for studying such complex traits has emerged by viewing their phenotypic formation as a "system" in which a high-dimensional group of interconnected components act and interact across different levels of biological organization from molecules through cells to whole organisms. This system is initiated by a machinery of DNA sequences that regulate a cascade of biochemical pathways to synthesize endophenotypes and further assemble these endophenotypes toward the end-point phenotype in virtue of various developmental changes. This review focuses on a conceptual framework for genetic mapping of complex traits by which to delineate the underlying components, interactions and mechanisms that govern the system according to biological principles and understand how these components function synergistically under the control of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) to comprise a unified whole. This framework is built by a system of differential equations that quantifies how alterations of different components lead to the global change of trait development and function, and provides a quantitative and testable platform for assessing the multiscale interplay between QTLs and development. The method will enable geneticists to shed light on the genetic complexity of any biological system and predict, alter or engineer its physiological and pathological states. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Detection of timescales in evolving complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darst, Richard K.; Granell, Clara; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Saramäki, Jari; Fortunato, Santo

    2016-12-01

    Most complex systems are intrinsically dynamic in nature. The evolution of a dynamic complex system is typically represented as a sequence of snapshots, where each snapshot describes the configuration of the system at a particular instant of time. This is often done by using constant intervals but a better approach would be to define dynamic intervals that match the evolution of the system’s configuration. To this end, we propose a method that aims at detecting evolutionary changes in the configuration of a complex system, and generates intervals accordingly. We show that evolutionary timescales can be identified by looking for peaks in the similarity between the sets of events on consecutive time intervals of data. Tests on simple toy models reveal that the technique is able to detect evolutionary timescales of time-varying data both when the evolution is smooth as well as when it changes sharply. This is further corroborated by analyses of several real datasets. Our method is scalable to extremely large datasets and is computationally efficient. This allows a quick, parameter-free detection of multiple timescales in the evolution of a complex system.

  14. Multiphase reliability analysis of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azam, Mohammad S.; Tu, Fang; Pattipati, Krishna R.

    2003-08-01

    Modern industrial systems assume different configurations to accomplish multiple objectives during different phases of operation, and the component parameters may also vary from one phase to the next. Consequently, reliability evaluation of complex multi-phased systems is a vital and challenging issue. Maximization of mission reliability of a multi-phase system via optimal asset selection is another key demand; incorporation of optimization issues adds to the complexities of reliability evaluation processes. Introduction of components having self-diagnostics and self-recovery capabilities, along with increased complexity and phase-dependent configuration variations in network architectures, requires new approaches for reliability evaluation. This paper considers the problem of evaluating the reliability of a complex multi-phased system with self-recovery/fault-protection options. The reliability analysis is based on a colored digraph (i.e., multi-functional) model that subsumes fault trees and digraphs as special cases. These models enable system designers to decide on system architecture modifications and to determine the optimum levels of redundancy. A sum of disjoint products (SDP) approach is employed to compute system reliability. We also formulated the problem of optimal asset selection in a multi-phase system as one of maximizing the probability of mission success under random load profiles on components. Different methods (e.g., ordinal optimization, robust design, and nonparametric statistical testing) are explored to solve the problem. The resulting analytical expressions and the software tool are demonstrated on a generic programmable software-controlled switchgear, a data bus controller system and a multi-phase mission involving helicopters.

  15. In Defense of Simulating Complex and Tragic Historical Episodes: A Measured Response to the Outcry over a New England Slavery Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright-Maley, Cory

    2014-01-01

    A slavery simulation that took place as part of a field trip for students of a Hartford junior high academy led a father to file a human rights suit against the school district, and for one official to comment that simulations of complex and tragic human phenomena have "no place in an educational system." In light of these conclusions,…

  16. Describing the complexity of systems: multivariable "set complexity" and the information basis of systems biology.

    PubMed

    Galas, David J; Sakhanenko, Nikita A; Skupin, Alexander; Ignac, Tomasz

    2014-02-01

    Context dependence is central to the description of complexity. Keying on the pairwise definition of "set complexity," we use an information theory approach to formulate general measures of systems complexity. We examine the properties of multivariable dependency starting with the concept of interaction information. We then present a new measure for unbiased detection of multivariable dependency, "differential interaction information." This quantity for two variables reduces to the pairwise "set complexity" previously proposed as a context-dependent measure of information in biological systems. We generalize it here to an arbitrary number of variables. Critical limiting properties of the "differential interaction information" are key to the generalization. This measure extends previous ideas about biological information and provides a more sophisticated basis for the study of complexity. The properties of "differential interaction information" also suggest new approaches to data analysis. Given a data set of system measurements, differential interaction information can provide a measure of collective dependence, which can be represented in hypergraphs describing complex system interaction patterns. We investigate this kind of analysis using simulated data sets. The conjoining of a generalized set complexity measure, multivariable dependency analysis, and hypergraphs is our central result. While our focus is on complex biological systems, our results are applicable to any complex system.

  17. Constructing minimal models for complex system dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barzel, Baruch; Liu, Yang-Yu; Barabási, Albert-László

    2015-05-01

    One of the strengths of statistical physics is the ability to reduce macroscopic observations into microscopic models, offering a mechanistic description of a system's dynamics. This paradigm, rooted in Boltzmann's gas theory, has found applications from magnetic phenomena to subcellular processes and epidemic spreading. Yet, each of these advances were the result of decades of meticulous model building and validation, which are impossible to replicate in most complex biological, social or technological systems that lack accurate microscopic models. Here we develop a method to infer the microscopic dynamics of a complex system from observations of its response to external perturbations, allowing us to construct the most general class of nonlinear pairwise dynamics that are guaranteed to recover the observed behaviour. The result, which we test against both numerical and empirical data, is an effective dynamic model that can predict the system's behaviour and provide crucial insights into its inner workings.

  18. Energy Consumption Monitoring System for Large Complexes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jorge, André; Guerreiro, João; Pereira, Pedro; Martins, João; Gomes, Luís

    This paper describes the development of an open source system for monitoring and data acquisition of several energy analyzers. The developed system is based on a computer with Internet/Intranet connection by means of RS485 using Modbus RTU as communication protocol. The monitoring/metering system was developed for large building complexes and was validated in the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia University campus. The system considers two distinct applications. The first one allows the user to verify, in real time, the energy consumption of any department in the complex, produce load diagrams, tables and print, email or save all available data. The second application keeps records of active/reactive energy consumption in order to verify the existence of some anomalous situation, and also monthly charge energy consumption to each corresponding department.

  19. Managing interoperability and complexity in health systems.

    PubMed

    Bouamrane, M-M; Tao, C; Sarkar, I N

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, we have witnessed substantial progress in the use of clinical informatics systems to support clinicians during episodes of care, manage specialised domain knowledge, perform complex clinical data analysis and improve the management of health organisations' resources. However, the vision of fully integrated health information eco-systems, which provide relevant information and useful knowledge at the point-of-care, remains elusive. This journal Focus Theme reviews some of the enduring challenges of interoperability and complexity in clinical informatics systems. Furthermore, a range of approaches are proposed in order to address, harness and resolve some of the many remaining issues towards a greater integration of health information systems and extraction of useful or new knowledge from heterogeneous electronic data repositories.

  20. Lasercom system architecture with reduced complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lesh, James R. (Inventor); Chen, Chien-Chung (Inventor); Ansari, Homayoon (Inventor)

    1994-01-01

    Spatial acquisition and precision beam pointing functions are critical to spaceborne laser communication systems. In the present invention, a single high bandwidth CCD detector is used to perform both spatial acquisition and tracking functions. Compared to previous lasercom hardware design, the array tracking concept offers reduced system complexity by reducing the number of optical elements in the design. Specifically, the design requires only one detector and one beam steering mechanism. It also provides the means to optically close the point-ahead control loop. The technology required for high bandwidth array tracking was examined and shown to be consistent with current state of the art. The single detector design can lead to a significantly reduced system complexity and a lower system cost.

  1. Resource Letter CS-1: Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, M. E. J.

    2011-08-01

    A complex system is a system composed of many interacting parts, often called agents, which displays collective behavior that does not follow trivially from the behaviors of the individual parts. Examples include condensed-matter systems, ecosystems, stock markets and economies, biological evolution, and indeed the whole of human society. Substantial progress has been made in the quantitative understanding of complex systems, particularly since the 1980s, using a combination of basic theory, much of it derived from physics, and computer simulation. The subject is a broad one, drawing on techniques and ideas from a wide range of areas. Here, I give a selection of introductory resources, ranging from classic papers to recent books and reviews.

  2. Sensitivity of complex, internally coupled systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw

    1990-01-01

    A method is presented for computing sensitivity derivatives with respect to independent (input) variables for complex, internally coupled systems, while avoiding the cost and inaccuracy of finite differencing performed on the entire system analysis. The method entails two alternative algorithms: the first is based on the classical implicit function theorem formulated on residuals of governing equations, and the second develops the system sensitivity equations in a new form using the partial (local) sensitivity derivatives of the output with respect to the input of each part of the system. A few application examples are presented to illustrate the discussion.

  3. London, England

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2003-01-18

    For almost 2,000 years, the River Thames has served as the life force of London, capital of the United Kingdom and one of the world's most famous cities. In AD 43 the Romans established the trading settlement of Londinium at a favorable crossing point on the river. The Romans remained until the 5th century, when the city came under Saxon control. The early 17th century saw enormous growth, but the deadly plague of 1664 and 1665 ravaged the population, and in the following year the Great Fire, which burned for four days, destroyed most of the city. A public transportation system and other city services in the early 19th century eased many of the increasing urban problems of the burgeoning capital of the wealthy British Empire. After coping with the devastating effects of bombing during World War II and the gradual dismantling of the empire, London today thrives as a vital modern metropolis. London is one of 100 cities being studied using ASTER data to map and monitor urban use patterns and growth. This image was acquired on October 12, 2001 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA04301

  4. Security assurances for intelligent complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naqvi, Syed; Riguidel, Michel

    2007-04-01

    Intelligent complex systems are drawing considerable attention of researchers in various scientific areas. These architectures require adequate assurances of security, reliability, and fault-tolerance. The implementation of security functions such as identification, authentication, access control, and data protection can be viewed in terms of a security assurance model. This model relies on the security architecture of a system, which in turn is based on a trusted infrastructure. This assurance model defines the level and features of the protection it offers, and determines the need and relevance of the deployment of specific security mechanisms. In this article, we first examine how the verification of the security measures, and notably their presence, correctness, effectiveness, the impact of changes in the existing intelligent complex systems with respect to vulnerabilities, systems engineering choices, reconfigurations, patch installations, network management, etc. We then explore how we can evaluate the overall security assurance of a given system. We emphasis that it is desirable to separate the trust providing assurance model and the security architecture, into two separated distributed entities (instrumentations, protocols, architectures, management). We believe that this segregation will allow us to automate and boost the trusted infrastructure and security infrastructure, while the authorizations, exceptions, and security management as a whole, are achieved through their interaction. Finally, we discuss the security metrics for these complex intelligent systems. New mechanisms and tools are needed for assessing and proving the security and dependability of a complex system as the scale of these systems and the kind of threats and assumptions on their operational environment pose new challenges. We conclude with a description of our proposed security management model.

  5. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jianguo; Dietz, Thomas; Carpenter, Stephen R; Alberti, Marina; Folke, Carl; Moran, Emilio; Pell, Alice N; Deadman, Peter; Kratz, Timothy; Lubchenco, Jane; Ostrom, Elinor; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Provencher, William; Redman, Charles L; Schneider, Stephen H; Taylor, William W

    2007-09-14

    Integrated studies of coupled human and natural systems reveal new and complex patterns and processes not evident when studied by social or natural scientists separately. Synthesis of six case studies from around the world shows that couplings between human and natural systems vary across space, time, and organizational units. They also exhibit nonlinear dynamics with thresholds, reciprocal feedback loops, time lags, resilience, heterogeneity, and surprises. Furthermore, past couplings have legacy effects on present conditions and future possibilities.

  6. Degeneracy and complexity in biological systems

    PubMed Central

    Edelman, Gerald M.; Gally, Joseph A.

    2001-01-01

    Degeneracy, the ability of elements that are structurally different to perform the same function or yield the same output, is a well known characteristic of the genetic code and immune systems. Here, we point out that degeneracy is a ubiquitous biological property and argue that it is a feature of complexity at genetic, cellular, system, and population levels. Furthermore, it is both necessary for, and an inevitable outcome of, natural selection. PMID:11698650

  7. Neural networks and dynamic complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Fox, G.; Furmanski, Wojtek; Ho, Alex; Koller, J.; Simic, P.; Wong, Isaac

    1989-01-01

    We describe the use of neural networks for optimization and inference associated with a variety of complex systems. We show how a string formalism can be used for parallel computer decomposition, message routing and sequential optimizing compilers. We extend these ideas to a general treatment of spatial assessment and distributed artificial intelligence. 34 refs., 12 figs.

  8. Language Teacher Cognitions: Complex Dynamic Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feryok, Anne

    2010-01-01

    Language teacher cognition research is a growing field. In recent years several features of language teacher cognitions have been noted: they can be complex, ranging over a number of different subjects; they can be dynamic, changing over time and under different influences; and they can be systems, forming unified and cohesive personal or…

  9. Promoting Transfer by Grounding Complex Systems Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstone, Robert L.; Wilensky, Uri

    2008-01-01

    Understanding scientific phenomena in terms of complex systems principles is both scientifically and pedagogically important. Situations from different disciplines of science are often governed by the same principle, and so promoting knowledge transfer across disciplines makes valuable cross-fertilization and scientific unification possible.…

  10. Designing To Learn about Complex Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hmelo, Cindy E.; Holton, Douglas L.; Kolodner, Janet L.

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the presence of complex structural, behavioral, and functional relations to understanding. Reports on a design experiment in which 6th grade children learned about the human respiratory system by designing artificial lungs and building partial working models. Makes suggestions for successful learning from design activities. (Contains 44…

  11. Promoting Transfer by Grounding Complex Systems Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstone, Robert L.; Wilensky, Uri

    2008-01-01

    Understanding scientific phenomena in terms of complex systems principles is both scientifically and pedagogically important. Situations from different disciplines of science are often governed by the same principle, and so promoting knowledge transfer across disciplines makes valuable cross-fertilization and scientific unification possible.…

  12. Language Teacher Cognitions: Complex Dynamic Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feryok, Anne

    2010-01-01

    Language teacher cognition research is a growing field. In recent years several features of language teacher cognitions have been noted: they can be complex, ranging over a number of different subjects; they can be dynamic, changing over time and under different influences; and they can be systems, forming unified and cohesive personal or…

  13. Engineering Education as a Complex System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gattie, David K.; Kellam, Nadia N.; Schramski, John R.; Walther, Joachim

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical basis for cultivating engineering education as a complex system that will prepare students to think critically and make decisions with regard to poorly understood, ill-structured issues. Integral to this theoretical basis is a solution space construct developed and presented as a benchmark for evaluating…

  14. Complex Systems: Boundary-Spanning Training Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adler, Terry; Black, Janice A.; Loveland, John P.

    2003-01-01

    The complex system dynamics of organizations and the influence of information technology requires workers to have boundary-spanning skills and the ability to work in virtual teams. The integrated business core is an experiential graduate-level course designed to develop these skills; it is also adaptable for inservice training. (Contains 69…

  15. Designing To Learn about Complex Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hmelo, Cindy E.; Holton, Douglas L.; Kolodner, Janet L.

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the presence of complex structural, behavioral, and functional relations to understanding. Reports on a design experiment in which 6th grade children learned about the human respiratory system by designing artificial lungs and building partial working models. Makes suggestions for successful learning from design activities. (Contains 44…

  16. Mapping complex traits as a dynamic system

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Lidan; Wu, Rongling

    2017-01-01

    Despite increasing emphasis on the genetic study of quantitative traits, we are still far from being able to chart a clear picture of their genetic architecture, given an inherent complexity involved in trait formation. A competing theory for studying such complex traits has emerged by viewing their phenotypic formation as a “system” in which a high-dimensional group of interconnected components act and interact across different levels of biological organization from molecules through cells to whole organisms. This system is initiated by a machinery of DNA sequences that regulate a cascade of biochemical pathways to synthesize endophenotypes and further assemble these endophenotypes toward the end-point phenotype in virtue of various developmental changes. This review focuses on a conceptual framework for genetic mapping of complex traits by which to delineate the underlying components, interactions and mechanisms that govern the system according to biological principles and understand how these components function synergistically under the control of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) to comprise a unified whole. This framework is built by a system of differential equations that quantifies how alterations of different components lead to the global change of trait development and function, and provides a quantitative and testable platform for assessing the multiscale interplay between QTLs and development. The method will enable geneticists to shed light on the genetic complexity of any biological system and predict, alter or engineer its physiological and pathological states. PMID:25772476

  17. Multivariate analysis: greater insights into complex systems

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Many agronomic researchers measure and collect multiple response variables in an effort to understand the more complex nature of the system being studied. Multivariate (MV) statistical methods encompass the simultaneous analysis of all random variables (RV) measured on each experimental or sampling ...

  18. Virtual study trip to integrated care in England

    PubMed Central

    Goodwin, Nicholas

    2011-01-01

    Over the last decade in England, there have been numerous attempts to develop new forms of integrated care working between health and social care agencies that have sought to improve the care experiences for older people and those with complex and chronic care needs. However, despite a significant amount of innovation, the care system remains fragmented. This presentation examines how integrated care has developed in the English NHS, including the provision of some key and current examples such as nurse-led case management, joint health and social care teams, and integrated care organisations. The session discusses whether care integration in England will thrive or perish as new health sector reforms are introduced that focus on choice and competition across a diverse market of care providers.

  19. Dependency visualization for complex system understanding

    SciTech Connect

    Smart, J. Allison Cory

    1994-09-01

    With the volume of software in production use dramatically increasing, the importance of software maintenance has become strikingly apparent. Techniques now sought and developed for reverse engineering and design extraction and recovery. At present, numerous commercial products and research tools exist which are capable of visualizing a variety of programming languages and software constructs. The list of new tools and services continues to grow rapidly. Although the scope of the existing commercial and academic product set is quite broad, these tools still share a common underlying problem. The ability of each tool to visually organize object representations is increasingly impaired as the number of components and component dependencies within systems increases. Regardless of how objects are defined, complex ``spaghetti`` networks result in nearly all large system cases. While this problem is immediately apparent in modem systems analysis involving large software implementations, it is not new. As will be discussed in Chapter 2, related problems involving the theory of graphs were identified long ago. This important theoretical foundation provides a useful vehicle for representing and analyzing complex system structures. While the utility of directed graph based concepts in software tool design has been demonstrated in literature, these tools still lack the capabilities necessary for large system comprehension. This foundation must therefore be expanded with new organizational and visualization constructs necessary to meet this challenge. This dissertation addresses this need by constructing a conceptual model and a set of methods for interactively exploring, organizing, and understanding the structure of complex software systems.

  20. Gaia as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed Central

    Lenton, Timothy M; van Oijen, Marcel

    2002-01-01

    We define the Gaia system of life and its environment on Earth, review the status of the Gaia theory, introduce potentially relevant concepts from complexity theory, then try to apply them to Gaia. We consider whether Gaia is a complex adaptive system (CAS) in terms of its behaviour and suggest that the system is self-organizing but does not reside in a critical state. Gaia has supported abundant life for most of the last 3.8 Gyr. Large perturbations have occasionally suppressed life but the system has always recovered without losing the capacity for large-scale free energy capture and recycling of essential elements. To illustrate how complexity theory can help us understand the emergence of planetary-scale order, we present a simple cellular automata (CA) model of the imaginary planet Daisyworld. This exhibits emergent self-regulation as a consequence of feedback coupling between life and its environment. Local spatial interaction, which was absent from the original model, can destabilize the system by generating bifurcation regimes. Variation and natural selection tend to remove this instability. With mutation in the model system, it exhibits self-organizing adaptive behaviour in its response to forcing. We close by suggesting how artificial life ('Alife') techniques may enable more comprehensive feasibility tests of Gaia. PMID:12079529

  1. Systems Medicine-Complexity Within, Simplicity Without.

    PubMed

    Berlin, Richard; Gruen, Russell; Best, James

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a brief history of Systems Theory, progresses to Systems Biology, and its relation to the more traditional investigative method of reductionism. The emergence of Systems Medicine represents the application of Systems Biology to disease and clinical issues. The challenges faced by this transition from Systems Biology to Systems Medicine are explained; the requirements of physicians at the bedside, caring for patients, as well as the place of human-human interaction and the needs of the patients are addressed. An organ-focused transition to Systems Medicine, rather than a genomic-, molecular-, or cell-based effort is emphasized. Organ focus represents a middle-out approach to ease this transition and to maximize the benefits of scientific discovery and clinical application. This method manages the perceptions of time and space, the massive amounts of human- and patient-related data, and the ensuing complexity of information.

  2. Membrane Tethering Complexes in the Endosomal System

    PubMed Central

    Spang, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Vesicles that are generated by endocytic events at the plasma membrane are destined to early endosomes. A prerequisite for proper fusion is the tethering of two membrane entities. Tethering of vesicles to early endosomes is mediated by the class C core vacuole/endosome tethering (CORVET) complex, while fusion of late endosomes with lysosomes depends on the homotypic fusion and vacuole protein sorting (HOPS) complex. Recycling through the trans-Golgi network (TGN) and to the plasma membrane is facilitated by the Golgi associated retrograde protein (GARP) and endosome-associated recycling protein (EARP) complexes, respectively. However, there are other tethering functions in the endosomal system as there are multiple pathways through which proteins can be delivered from endosomes to either the TGN or the plasma membrane. Furthermore, proteins that may be part of novel tethering complexes have been recently identified. Thus, it is likely that more tethering factors exist. In this review, I will provide an overview of different tethering complexes of the endosomal system and discuss how they may provide specificity in membrane traffic. PMID:27243003

  3. London, England

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    For almost 2,000 years, the River Thames has served as the life force of London, capital of the United Kingdom and one of the world's most famous cities. In AD 43 the Romans established the trading settlement of Londinium at a favorable crossing point on the river. The Romans remained until the 5th century, when the city came under Saxon control. The early 17th century saw enormous growth, but the deadly plague of 1664 and 1665 ravaged the population, and in the following year the Great Fire, which burned for four days, destroyed most of the city. A public transportation system and other city services in the early 19th century eased many of the increasing urban problems of the burgeoning capital of the wealthy British Empire. After coping with the devastating effects of bombing during World War II and the gradual dismantling of the empire, London today thrives as a vital modern metropolis. London is one of 100 cities being studied using ASTER data to map and monitor urban use patterns and growth.

    This image was acquired on October 12, 2001 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.

    ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products.

    The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats

  4. London, England

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    For almost 2,000 years, the River Thames has served as the life force of London, capital of the United Kingdom and one of the world's most famous cities. In AD 43 the Romans established the trading settlement of Londinium at a favorable crossing point on the river. The Romans remained until the 5th century, when the city came under Saxon control. The early 17th century saw enormous growth, but the deadly plague of 1664 and 1665 ravaged the population, and in the following year the Great Fire, which burned for four days, destroyed most of the city. A public transportation system and other city services in the early 19th century eased many of the increasing urban problems of the burgeoning capital of the wealthy British Empire. After coping with the devastating effects of bombing during World War II and the gradual dismantling of the empire, London today thrives as a vital modern metropolis. London is one of 100 cities being studied using ASTER data to map and monitor urban use patterns and growth.

    This image was acquired on October 12, 2001 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.

    ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products.

    The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats

  5. A Multifaceted Mathematical Approach for Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Alexander, F.; Anitescu, M.; Bell, J.; Brown, D.; Ferris, M.; Luskin, M.; Mehrotra, S.; Moser, B.; Pinar, A.; Tartakovsky, A.; Willcox, K.; Wright, S.; Zavala, V.

    2012-03-07

    Applied mathematics has an important role to play in developing the tools needed for the analysis, simulation, and optimization of complex problems. These efforts require the development of the mathematical foundations for scientific discovery, engineering design, and risk analysis based on a sound integrated approach for the understanding of complex systems. However, maximizing the impact of applied mathematics on these challenges requires a novel perspective on approaching the mathematical enterprise. Previous reports that have surveyed the DOE's research needs in applied mathematics have played a key role in defining research directions with the community. Although these reports have had significant impact, accurately assessing current research needs requires an evaluation of today's challenges against the backdrop of recent advances in applied mathematics and computing. To address these needs, the DOE Applied Mathematics Program sponsored a Workshop for Mathematics for the Analysis, Simulation and Optimization of Complex Systems on September 13-14, 2011. The workshop had approximately 50 participants from both the national labs and academia. The goal of the workshop was to identify new research areas in applied mathematics that will complement and enhance the existing DOE ASCR Applied Mathematics Program efforts that are needed to address problems associated with complex systems. This report describes recommendations from the workshop and subsequent analysis of the workshop findings by the organizing committee.

  6. Complex Physical, Biophysical and Econophysical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dewar, Robert L.; Detering, Frank

    1. Introduction to complex and econophysics systems: a navigation map / T. Aste and T. Di Matteo -- 2. An introduction to fractional diffusion / B. I. Henry, T.A.M. Langlands and P. Straka -- 3. Space plasmas and fusion plasmas as complex systems / R. O. Dendy -- 4. Bayesian data analysis / M. S. Wheatland -- 5. Inverse problems and complexity in earth system science / I. G. Enting -- 6. Applied fluid chaos: designing advection with periodically reoriented flows for micro to geophysical mixing and transport enhancement / G. Metcalfe -- 7. Approaches to modelling the dynamical activity of brain function based on the electroencephalogram / D. T. J. Liley and F. Frascoli -- 8. Jaynes' maximum entropy principle, Riemannian metrics and generalised least action bound / R. K. Niven and B. Andresen -- 9. Complexity, post-genomic biology and gene expression programs / R. B. H. Williams and O. J.-H. Luo -- 10. Tutorials on agent-based modelling with NetLogo and network analysis with Pajek / M. J. Berryman and S. D. Angus.

  7. Systems biology and complex neurobehavioral traits.

    PubMed

    Giegling, I; Hartmann, A M; Genius, J; Benninghoff, J; Möller, H-J; Rujescu, D

    2008-09-01

    There is evidence for a strong genetic component in the etiology of schizophrenia, as demonstrated by family, twin and adoption studies suggesting a heritability of about 80%. There are several approaches in the search for genetic risk factors such as linkage or association studies. Additionally, much effort was done in refining the phenotype including neuropsychology, neurophysiology, imaging or the generation of animal models. Genes becoming associated with schizophrenia have to be tested for functionality including e.g. metabolomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, generation of transgenic mice, analysis of protein-protein interactions, allele-specific RNA expression analysis, analysis of neuronal and stem cell cultures, as well as post mortem studies and behavioral studies in rodents. This amount of data requires complex data analysis. A system's perspective can help in the analysis of the structural and functional complexity of the brain. New tools will be needed for a more complex and systemic view. The systems biology approach could be a pivotal tool in understanding of complex behavior and diseases in future.

  8. Causes of catastrophic failure in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, David A.

    2010-08-01

    Root causes of mission critical failures and major cost and schedule overruns in complex systems and programs are studied through the post-mortem analyses compiled for several examples, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Challenger and Columbia Shuttle accidents, and the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. The roles of organizational complexity, cognitive biases in decision making, the display of quantitative data, and cost and schedule pressure are all considered. Recommendations for mitigating the risk of similar failures in future programs are also provided.

  9. Systems genetics approaches to understand complex traits

    PubMed Central

    Civelek, Mete; Lusis, Aldons J.

    2014-01-01

    Systems genetics is an approach to understand the flow of biological information that underlies complex traits. It uses a range of experimental and statistical methods to quantitate and integrate intermediate phenotypes, such as transcript, protein or metabolite levels, in populations that vary for traits of interest. Systems genetics studies have provided the first global view of the molecular architecture of complex traits and are useful for the identification of genes, pathways and networks that underlie common human diseases. Given the urgent need to understand how the thousands of loci that have been identified in genome-wide association studies contribute to disease susceptibility, systems genetics is likely to become an increasingly important approach to understanding both biology and disease. PMID:24296534

  10. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  11. Stability threshold approach for complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    A new measure to characterize the stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbations is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable of disrupting the system and switch it to an undesired dynamical regime. In the phase space, the ST corresponds to the ‘thinnest site’ of the attraction basin and therefore indicates the most ‘dangerous’ direction of perturbations. We introduce a computational algorithm for quantification of the ST and demonstrate that the suggested approach is effective and provides important insights. The generality of the obtained results defines their vast potential for application in such fields as engineering, neuroscience, power grids, Earth science and many others where the robustness of complex systems is studied.

  12. Complexity and whole-system change programmes.

    PubMed

    Dattée, Brice; Barlow, James

    2010-04-01

    There has been growing interest in applying complexity theory to health care systems, both in policy and academic research discourses. However, its application often lacks rigour - authors discuss the properties of complex systems, state that they apply to health care and draw conclusions anchored around the idea of 'whole system change'. This paper explores the use of whole systems change in a programme to improve the delivery of unscheduled health care in Scotland. Qualitative case-studies of five health boards in Scotland reflecting different demographics, initial performance data and progress towards meeting programme targets. The programme's collaborative approach was successful in moving to a culture of mutual understanding and greater awareness of the interdependencies between different functions within the hospitals. There was whole system working at the acute hospital level, leading to improved patient flows. But despite recognizing the need for whole system change overall, it proved hard to address relationships with stakeholders influencing wider out-of-hospital patient flows. This was exacerbated by the structure of the programme, which was designed much more around acute patient flows. The programme worked well to improve performance by focusing on interdependencies within a large part of the acute care subsystem but did not have the same impact at the overall health care system level. This has important implications for the design of policy and associated programmes which seek to effect whole system reform, or at least are realistic about the magnitude of change they can achieve.

  13. Analysis of Complex Valve and Feed Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahuja, Vineet; Hosangadi, Ashvin; Shipman, Jeremy; Cavallo, Peter; Dash, Sanford

    2007-01-01

    A numerical framework for analysis of complex valve systems supports testing of propulsive systems by simulating key valve and control system components in the test loop. In particular, it is designed to enhance the analysis capability in terms of identifying system transients and quantifying the valve response to these transients. This system has analysis capability for simulating valve motion in complex systems operating in diverse flow regimes ranging from compressible gases to cryogenic liquids. A key feature is the hybrid, unstructured framework with sub-models for grid movement and phase change including cryogenic cavitations. The multi-element unstructured framework offers improved predictions of valve performance characteristics under steady conditions for structurally complex valves such as pressure regulator valve. Unsteady simulations of valve motion using this computational approach have been carried out for various valves in operation at Stennis Space Center such as the split-body valve and the 10-in. (approx.25.4-cm) LOX (liquid oxygen) valve and the 4-in. (approx.10 cm) Y-pattern valve (liquid nitrogen). Such simulations make use of variable grid topologies, thereby permitting solution accuracy and resolving important flow physics in the seat region of the moving valve. An advantage to this software includes possible reduction in testing costs incurred due to disruptions relating to unexpected flow transients or functioning of valve/flow control systems. Prediction of the flow anomalies leading to system vibrations, flow resonance, and valve stall can help in valve scheduling and significantly reduce the need for activation tests. This framework has been evaluated for its ability to predict performance metrics like flow coefficient for cavitating venturis and valve coefficient curves, and could be a valuable tool in predicting and understanding anomalous behavior of system components at rocket propulsion testing and design sites.

  14. Automated Design of Complex Dynamic Systems

    PubMed Central

    Hermans, Michiel; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Bienstman, Peter; Dambre, Joni

    2014-01-01

    Several fields of study are concerned with uniting the concept of computation with that of the design of physical systems. For example, a recent trend in robotics is to design robots in such a way that they require a minimal control effort. Another example is found in the domain of photonics, where recent efforts try to benefit directly from the complex nonlinear dynamics to achieve more efficient signal processing. The underlying goal of these and similar research efforts is to internalize a large part of the necessary computations within the physical system itself by exploiting its inherent non-linear dynamics. This, however, often requires the optimization of large numbers of system parameters, related to both the system's structure as well as its material properties. In addition, many of these parameters are subject to fabrication variability or to variations through time. In this paper we apply a machine learning algorithm to optimize physical dynamic systems. We show that such algorithms, which are normally applied on abstract computational entities, can be extended to the field of differential equations and used to optimize an associated set of parameters which determine their behavior. We show that machine learning training methodologies are highly useful in designing robust systems, and we provide a set of both simple and complex examples using models of physical dynamical systems. Interestingly, the derived optimization method is intimately related to direct collocation a method known in the field of optimal control. Our work suggests that the application domains of both machine learning and optimal control have a largely unexplored overlapping area which envelopes a novel design methodology of smart and highly complex physical systems. PMID:24497969

  15. Engineering education as a complex system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gattie, David K.; Kellam, Nadia N.; Schramski, John R.; Walther, Joachim

    2011-12-01

    This paper presents a theoretical basis for cultivating engineering education as a complex system that will prepare students to think critically and make decisions with regard to poorly understood, ill-structured issues. Integral to this theoretical basis is a solution space construct developed and presented as a benchmark for evaluating problem-solving orientations that emerge within students' thinking as they progress through an engineering curriculum. It is proposed that the traditional engineering education model, while analytically rigorous, is characterised by properties that, although necessary, are insufficient for preparing students to address complex issues of the twenty-first century. A Synthesis and Design Studio model for engineering education is proposed, which maintains the necessary rigor of analysis within a uniquely complex yet sufficiently structured learning environment.

  16. [Complex systems variability analysis using approximate entropy].

    PubMed

    Cuestas, Eduardo

    2010-01-01

    Biological systems are highly complex systems, both spatially and temporally. They are rooted in an interdependent, redundant and pleiotropic interconnected dynamic network. The properties of a system are different from those of their parts, and they depend on the integrity of the whole. The systemic properties vanish when the system breaks down, while the properties of its components are maintained. The disease can be understood as a systemic functional alteration of the human body, which present with a varying severity, stability and durability. Biological systems are characterized by measurable complex rhythms, abnormal rhythms are associated with disease and may be involved in its pathogenesis, they are been termed "dynamic disease." Physicians have long time recognized that alterations of physiological rhythms are associated with disease. Measuring absolute values of clinical parameters yields highly significant, clinically useful information, however evaluating clinical parameters the variability provides additionally useful clinical information. The aim of this review was to study one of the most recent advances in the measurement and characterization of biological variability made possible by the development of mathematical models based on chaos theory and nonlinear dynamics, as approximate entropy, has provided us with greater ability to discern meaningful distinctions between biological signals from clinically distinct groups of patients.

  17. Multifractal Resilience Metrics for Complex Systems?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schertzer, D. J.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Lovejoy, S.

    2011-12-01

    The term resilience has become extremely fashionable, especially for complex systems, whereas corresponding operational definitions have remained rather elusive (Carpenter et al. 2001). More precisely, the resilience assessment of man-made systems (from nuclear plants to cities) to geophysical extremes require mathematically defined resilience metrics based on some conceptual definition, e.g. the often cited definition of "ecological resilience" (Hollings 1973): "the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks". Surprisingly, whereas it was acknowledged by Folke et al. (2010) that "multiscale resilience is fundamental for understanding the interplay between persistence and change, adaptability and transformability", the relation between resilience and scaling has not been so much questioned, see however Peterson (2000). We argue that is rather indispensable to go well beyond the attractor approach (Pimm and Lawton 1977; Collings and Wollkind 1990;), as well as extensions (Martin et al., 2011) into the framework of the viability theory (Aubin 1991; Aubin et al. 2011). Indeed, both are rather limited to systems that are complex only in time. Scale symmetries are indeed indispensable to reduce the space-time complexity by defining scale independent observables, which are the singularities of the original, scale dependent fields. These singularities enable to define across-scale resilience, instead of resilience at a given scale.

  18. Controlling Complex Systems and Developing Dynamic Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avizienis, Audrius Victor

    In complex systems, control and understanding become intertwined. Following Ilya Prigogine, we define complex systems as having control parameters which mediate transitions between distinct modes of dynamical behavior. From this perspective, determining the nature of control parameters and demonstrating the associated dynamical phase transitions are practically equivalent and fundamental to engaging with complexity. In the first part of this work, a control parameter is determined for a non-equilibrium electrochemical system by studying a transition in the morphology of structures produced by an electroless deposition reaction. Specifically, changing the size of copper posts used as the substrate for growing metallic silver structures by the reduction of Ag+ from solution under diffusion-limited reaction conditions causes a dynamical phase transition in the crystal growth process. For Cu posts with edge lengths on the order of one micron, local forces promoting anisotropic growth predominate, and the reaction produces interconnected networks of Ag nanowires. As the post size is increased above 10 microns, the local interfacial growth reaction dynamics couple with the macroscopic diffusion field, leading to spatially propagating instabilities in the electrochemical potential which induce periodic branching during crystal growth, producing dendritic deposits. This result is interesting both as an example of control and understanding in a complex system, and as a useful combination of top-down lithography with bottom-up electrochemical self-assembly. The second part of this work focuses on the technological development of devices fabricated using this non-equilibrium electrochemical process, towards a goal of integrating a complex network as a dynamic functional component in a neuromorphic computing device. Self-assembled networks of silver nanowires were reacted with sulfur to produce interfacial "atomic switches": silver-silver sulfide junctions, which exhibit

  19. NETS: Capturing electricity information in New England

    SciTech Connect

    Abe, J.D.; Alexander, L.R.; Clark, C.F.; Rosen, R.A.

    1999-05-01

    The six New England states share a common electricity market. Five of the six states, representing 95% of retail electricity sales in New England, have enacted electric industry restructuring laws. The other state, Vermont, is presently considering restructuring. Two states, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, have already implemented full retail access in the service territories of their investor-owned utilities. Each New England state has also promulgated, or is in the process of developing, a disclosure standard; some are also developing renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and/or generation performance standards (GPS) that will require the tracking of electricity information. Regulators in New England therefore have a common interest to explore the development of uniform electricity market rules for tracking electricity attributes. This interest served as the impetus for the New England Governors' Conference to hire Environmental Futures, the Tellus Institute, and Synapse Energy Economics to produce the New England Tracking System (NETS) Report. This article provides the policy background that forms the basis for the proposed tracking system and addresses key issues and obstacles identified in the NETS report: the collection and assignment of tracking data to electricity, and identification of an appropriate tracking system administrator. The article concludes by presenting selected comments from the public review process and subsequent next steps. A companion article on page 55 discusses the tracking methodology, detailing how allocations would be made for various wholesale transactions.

  20. Toward simulating complex systems with quantum effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenion-Hanrath, Rachel Lynn

    Quantum effects like tunneling, coherence, and zero point energy often play a significant role in phenomena on the scales of atoms and molecules. However, the exact quantum treatment of a system scales exponentially with dimensionality, making it impractical for characterizing reaction rates and mechanisms in complex systems. An ongoing effort in the field of theoretical chemistry and physics is extending scalable, classical trajectory-based simulation methods capable of capturing quantum effects to describe dynamic processes in many-body systems; in the work presented here we explore two such techniques. First, we detail an explicit electron, path integral (PI)-based simulation protocol for predicting the rate of electron transfer in condensed-phase transition metal complex systems. Using a PI representation of the transferring electron and a classical representation of the transition metal complex and solvent atoms, we compute the outer sphere free energy barrier and dynamical recrossing factor of the electron transfer rate while accounting for quantum tunneling and zero point energy effects. We are able to achieve this employing only a single set of force field parameters to describe the system rather than parameterizing along the reaction coordinate. Following our success in describing a simple model system, we discuss our next steps in extending our protocol to technologically relevant materials systems. The latter half focuses on the Mixed Quantum-Classical Initial Value Representation (MQC-IVR) of real-time correlation functions, a semiclassical method which has demonstrated its ability to "tune'' between quantum- and classical-limit correlation functions while maintaining dynamic consistency. Specifically, this is achieved through a parameter that determines the quantumness of individual degrees of freedom. Here, we derive a semiclassical correction term for the MQC-IVR to systematically characterize the error introduced by different choices of simulation

  1. Estimating optimal partitions for stochastic complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2013-06-01

    Partitions provide simple symbolic representations for complex systems. For a deterministic system, a generating partition establishes one-to-one correspondence between an orbit and the infinite symbolic sequence generated by the partition. For a stochastic system, however, a generating partition does not exist. In this paper, we propose a method to obtain a partition that best specifies the locations of points for a time series generated from a stochastic system by using the corresponding symbolic sequence under a constraint of an information rate. When the length of the substrings is limited with a finite length, the method coincides with that for estimating a generating partition from a time series generated from a deterministic system. The two real datasets analyzed in Kennel and Buhl, Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 084102 (2003), are reanalyzed with the proposed method to understand their underlying dynamics intuitively.

  2. What drives transient behavior in complex systems?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grela, Jacek

    2017-08-01

    We study transient behavior in the dynamics of complex systems described by a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Destabilizing nature of transient trajectories is discussed and its connection with the eigenvalue-based linearization procedure. The complexity is realized as a random matrix drawn from a modified May-Wigner model. Based on the initial response of the system, we identify a novel stable-transient regime. We calculate exact abundances of typical and extreme transient trajectories finding both Gaussian and Tracy-Widom distributions known in extreme value statistics. We identify degrees of freedom driving transient behavior as connected to the eigenvectors and encoded in a nonorthogonality matrix T0. We accordingly extend the May-Wigner model to contain a phase with typical transient trajectories present. An exact norm of the trajectory is obtained in the vanishing T0 limit where it describes a normal matrix.

  3. Integrated Reconfigurable Intelligent Systems (IRIS) for Complex Naval Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-09-30

    INTEGRATED RECONFIGURABLE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS (IRIS) FOR COMPLEX NAVAL SYSTEMS 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER N00014-09-C-0394 5b. GRANT NUMBER N/A 5c...298 (Rev, 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI-std Z39-18 QUARTERLY REPORT (July 1, 2009 - September 30, 2009) Integrated Reconflgurable Intelligent Systems (IRIS...Introduction The Integrated Reconfigurable Intelligent Systems (IRIS) is an initiative employing advanced methods to facilitate the design and operation of

  4. Endogenous Biologically Inspired Art of Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    Ji, Haru; Wakefield, Graham

    2016-01-01

    Since 2007, Graham Wakefield and Haru Ji have looked to nature for inspiration as they have created a series of "artificial natures," or interactive visualizations of biologically inspired complex systems that can evoke nature-like aesthetic experiences within mixed-reality art installations. This article describes how they have applied visualization, sonification, and interaction design in their work with artificial ecosystems and organisms using specific examples from their exhibited installations.

  5. Studies of complexity in fluid systems

    SciTech Connect

    Kadanoff, L.P.; Constantin, P.; Dupont, T.F.; Nagel, S.

    1993-02-01

    Objective is to bring together researchers from several disciplines (mathematics, numerical computation, theoretical and experimental physics) who share an interest in the development of complexity in fluid systems. Work is in progress on development of singular interfluid interfaces on several fronts. Striking variations in droplet formation can be observed in physical experiments and simulations based on simple models. High-speed photographs are being taken of small liquid drop breaking into droplets. Experimental studies of granular materials are being continued.

  6. Pressure ulcer and wounds reporting in NHS hospitals in England part 1: Audit of monitoring systems.

    PubMed

    Smith, Isabelle L; Nixon, Jane; Brown, Sarah; Wilson, Lyn; Coleman, Susanne

    2016-02-01

    Internationally, health-care systems have attempted to assess the scale of and demonstrate improvement in patient harms. Pressure ulcer (PU) monitoring systems have been introduced across NHS in-patient facilities in England, including the Safety Thermometer (STh) (prevalence), Incident Reporting Systems (IRS) and the Strategic Executive Information System (STEIS) for serious incidents. This is the first of two related papers considering PU monitoring systems across NHS in-patient facilities in England and focusses on a Wound Audit (PUWA) to assess the accuracy of these systems. Part 2 of this work and recommendations are reported pp *-*. The PUWA was undertaken in line with 'gold-standard' PU prevalence methods in a stratified random sample of NHS Trusts; 24/34 (72.7%) invited NHS Trusts participated, from which 121 randomly selected wards and 2239 patients agreed to participate. The PUWA identified 160 (7.1%) patients with an existing PU, compared to 105 (4.7%) on STh. STh had a weighted sensitivity of 48.2% (95%CI 35.4%-56.7%) and weighted specificity of 99.0% (95%CI 98.99%-99.01%). The PUWA identified 189 (8.4%) patients with an existing/healed PU compared to 135 (6.0%) on IRS. IRS had an unweighted sensitivity of 53.4% (95%CI 46.3%-60.4%) and unweighted specificity of 98.3% (95%CI 97.7%-98.8%). 83 patients had one or more potentially serious PU on PUWA and 8 (9.6%) of these patients were reported on STEIS. The results identified high levels of under-reporting for all systems and highlighted data capture challenges, including the use of clinical staff to inform national monitoring systems and the completeness of clinical records for PUs. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Birefringence measurement in complex optical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knell, Holger; Heuck, Hans-Martin

    2017-06-01

    State of the art optical systems become more complex. There are more lenses required in the optical design and optical coatings have more layers. These complex designs are prone to induce more thermal stress into the optical system which causes birefringence. In addition, there is a certain degree of freedom required to meet optical specifications during the assembly process. The mechanical fixation of these degrees of freedom can also lead to mechanical stress in the optical system and therefore to birefringence. To be able to distinguish those two types of stress a method to image the birefringence in the optical system is required. In the proposed setup light is polarized by a circular polarization filter and then is transmitted through a rotatable linear retarder and the tested optical system. The light then is reflected on the same path by a mirror. After the light passes the circular polarization filter on the way back, the intensity is recorded. When the rotatable retarder is rotated, the recorded intensity is modulated depending on the birefringence of the tested optical system. This modulation can be analyzed in Fourier domain and the linear retardance angle between the slow and the fast axis as well as the angle of the fast axis can be calculated. The retardance distribution over the pupil of the optical system then can be analyzed using Zernike decomposition. From the Zernike decomposition, the origin of the birefringence can be identified. Since it is required to quantify small amounts of retardance well below 10nm, the birefringence of the measurement system must be characterized before the measurement and considered in the calculation of the resulting birefringence. Temperature change of the measurement system still can produce measurement artifacts in the calculated result, which must also be compensated for.

  8. Complex Networks/Foundations of Information Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-06

    Information Systems 6 March 2013 Robert J. Bonneau, Ph.D. Division Chief AFOSR/RTC Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public...if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 06 MAR 2013 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2013 to 00-00...2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Complex Networks/Foundations of Information Systems 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6

  9. Synchronization in node of complex networks consist of complex chaotic system

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Qiang; Xie, Cheng-jun; Liu, Hong-jun; Li, Yan-hui

    2014-07-15

    A new synchronization method is investigated for node of complex networks consists of complex chaotic system. When complex networks realize synchronization, different component of complex state variable synchronize up to different scaling complex function by a designed complex feedback controller. This paper change synchronization scaling function from real field to complex field for synchronization in node of complex networks with complex chaotic system. Synchronization in constant delay and time-varying coupling delay complex networks are investigated, respectively. Numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  10. Complex Engineered Systems: A New Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mina, Ali A.; Braha, Dan; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    Human history is often seen as an inexorable march towards greater complexity — in ideas, artifacts, social, political and economic systems, technology, and in the structure of life itself. While we do not have detailed knowledge of ancient times, it is reasonable to conclude that the average resident of New York City today faces a world of much greater complexity than the average denizen of Carthage or Tikal. A careful consideration of this change, however, suggests that most of it has occurred recently, and has been driven primarily by the emergence of technology as a force in human life. In the 4000 years separating the Indus Valley Civilization from 18th century Europe, human transportation evolved from the bullock cart to the hansom, and the methods of communication used by George Washington did not differ significantly from those used by Alexander or Rameses. The world has moved radically towards greater complexity in the last two centuries. We have moved from buggies and letter couriers to airplanes and the Internet — an increase in capacity, and through its diversity also in complexity, orders of magnitude greater than that accumulated through the rest of human history. In addition to creating iconic artifacts — the airplane, the car, the computer, the television, etc. — this change has had a profound effect on the scope of experience by creating massive, connected and multiultra- level systems — traffic networks, power grids, markets, multinational corporations — that defy analytical understanding and seem to have a life of their own. This is where complexity truly enters our lives.

  11. Complexity for Survival of Living Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    2009-01-01

    A logical connection between the survivability of living systems and the complexity of their behavior (equivalently, mental complexity) has been established. This connection is an important intermediate result of continuing research on mathematical models that could constitute a unified representation of the evolution of both living and non-living systems. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the two most relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO- 21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; and Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO- 30634) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72. As used here, living systems is synonymous with active systems and intelligent systems. The quoted terms can signify artificial agents (e.g., suitably programmed computers) or natural biological systems ranging from single-cell organisms at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. One of the requirements that must be satisfied in mathematical modeling of living systems is reconciliation of evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics. In the approach followed in this research, this reconciliation is effected by means of a model, inspired partly by quantum mechanics, in which the quantum potential is replaced with an information potential. The model captures the most fundamental property of life - the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The model incorporates the equations of classical dynamics, including Newton s equations of motion and equations for random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces. The equations of classical dynamics are coupled with corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces that are

  12. Current Scientific Approaches to Decision Making in Complex Systems. 3. Volume 2. Conference Position Papers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-01-01

    Search: Traffic on a Multi- dimensional Structure R. i. Atkin, University of Essex, England b. Annex. Volume 3: Decision: Foundation and Practice Brian R...Gaines, University of Essex, England Volume 4: Competing Modes of Cognition and Communication in Simulated and Self-Reflective Systems Stein Braten... University of Oslo, Norway Volume 5: On the Spontaneous Emergence of Decision Making Constraints in Communicating Hierarchical Structure John S

  13. Network representations of immune system complexity

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, Naeha; Torabi-Parizi, Parizad; Gottschalk, Rachel A.; Germain, Ronald N.; Dutta, Bhaskar

    2015-01-01

    The mammalian immune system is a dynamic multi-scale system composed of a hierarchically organized set of molecular, cellular and organismal networks that act in concert to promote effective host defense. These networks range from those involving gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions underlying intracellular signaling pathways and single cell responses to increasingly complex networks of in vivo cellular interaction, positioning and migration that determine the overall immune response of an organism. Immunity is thus not the product of simple signaling events but rather non-linear behaviors arising from dynamic, feedback-regulated interactions among many components. One of the major goals of systems immunology is to quantitatively measure these complex multi-scale spatial and temporal interactions, permitting development of computational models that can be used to predict responses to perturbation. Recent technological advances permit collection of comprehensive datasets at multiple molecular and cellular levels while advances in network biology support representation of the relationships of components at each level as physical or functional interaction networks. The latter facilitate effective visualization of patterns and recognition of emergent properties arising from the many interactions of genes, molecules, and cells of the immune system. We illustrate the power of integrating ‘omics’ and network modeling approaches for unbiased reconstruction of signaling and transcriptional networks with a focus on applications involving the innate immune system. We further discuss future possibilities for reconstruction of increasingly complex cellular and organism-level networks and development of sophisticated computational tools for prediction of emergent immune behavior arising from the concerted action of these networks. PMID:25625853

  14. Changes in recruitment to public health consultant posts and hospital consultant posts in England: potential impact on the sustainability of the Public Health system.

    PubMed

    Harrell, Ruth; Caley, Michael; Allwood, Dominique; Fowler, Tom

    2011-12-01

    The UK government has proposed major changes to the Public Health system in England. This study aims quantify increasing anecdotal concern that the number of Public Health consultant posts advertised has plummeted since the publication of these plans. The archives of BMJ careers were interrogated for hospital and Public Health consultant posts advertised October 2008 and May 2011. Statistical process control charts were used to compare differences in recruitment over time and the ratio of Public Health:hospital consultant posts. We found a highly significant reduction in the mean number of advertisements for Public Health consultant posts from 27.9 posts per month in the period October 2008-Novermber 2009 to 6.3 posts per month between December 2009 and May 2010 (P< 0.005). The ratio of Public Health:hospital consultant posts fell from 3.3 to 0.9 Public Health consultant posts per 100 hospital consultant posts (P< 0.005). This study confirms the anecdotal concern that there has been a significant reduction in the advertisement, and by extrapolation, recruitment to Public Health consultants posts in England around the time of the publication of the government's reform plans. Public Health consultant posts have been disproportionately affected by this reduction compared to hospital consultant posts.

  15. Complex Generalized Synchronization and Parameter Identification of Nonidentical Nonlinear Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shibing; Wang, Xingyuan; Han, Bo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, generalized synchronization (GS) is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new synchronization scheme, complex generalized synchronization (CGS). Based on Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller and parameter update laws are designed to realize CGS and parameter identification of two nonidentical chaotic (hyperchaotic) complex systems with respect to a given complex map vector. This scheme is applied to synchronize a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, a chaotic complex Chen system and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, as well as a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a chaotic complexsystem with fully unknown parameters. The corresponding numerical simulations illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme. PMID:27014879

  16. Propagating wave correlations in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Creagh, Stephen C.; Gradoni, Gabriele; Hartmann, Timo; Tanner, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    We describe a novel approach for computing wave correlation functions inside finite spatial domains driven by complex and statistical sources. By exploiting semiclassical approximations, we provide explicit algorithms to calculate the local mean of these correlation functions in terms of the underlying classical dynamics. By defining appropriate ensemble averages, we show that fluctuations about the mean can be characterised in terms of classical correlations. We give in particular an explicit expression relating fluctuations of diagonal contributions to those of the full wave correlation function. The methods have a wide range of applications both in quantum mechanics and for classical wave problems such as in vibro-acoustics and electromagnetism. We apply the methods here to simple quantum systems, so-called quantum maps, which model the behaviour of generic problems on Poincaré sections. Although low-dimensional, these models exhibit a chaotic classical limit and share common characteristics with wave propagation in complex structures.

  17. Addressing the Complexity of the Earth System

    SciTech Connect

    Nobre, Carlos; Brasseur, Guy P.; Shapiro, Melvyn; Lahsen, Myanna; Brunet, Gilbert; Busalacchi, Antonio; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Seitzinger, Sybil; Noone, Kevin; Ometto, Jean P.

    2010-10-01

    This paper highlights the role of the Earth-system biosphere and illustrates the complex: biosphere-atmosphere interactions in the Amazon Basin, changes in nitrogen cycling, ocean chemistry, and land use. It introduces three important requirements for accelerating the development and use of Earth system information. The first requirement is to develop Earth system analysis and prediction models that account for multi-scale physical, chemical and biological processes, including their interactions in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system. The development of these models requires partnerships between academia, national research centers, and operational prediction facilities, and builds upon accomplishments in weather and climate predictions. They will highlight the regional aspects of global change, and include modules for water system, agriculture, forestry, energy, air quality, health, etc. The second requirement is to model the interactions between humans and the weather-climate-biogeochemical system. The third requirement is to introduce novel methodologies to account for societal drivers, impacts and feedbacks. This is a challenging endeavor requiring creative solutions and some compromising because human behavior cannot be fully represented within the framework of present-day physical prediction systems.

  18. Automated Diagnosis and Control of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurien, James; Plaunt, Christian; Cannon, Howard; Shirley, Mark; Taylor, Will; Nayak, P.; Hudson, Benoit; Bachmann, Andrew; Brownston, Lee; Hayden, Sandra; hide

    2007-01-01

    Livingstone2 is a reusable, artificial intelligence (AI) software system designed to assist spacecraft, life support systems, chemical plants, or other complex systems by operating with minimal human supervision, even in the face of hardware failures or unexpected events. The software diagnoses the current state of the spacecraft or other system, and recommends commands or repair actions that will allow the system to continue operation. Livingstone2 is an enhancement of the Livingstone diagnosis system that was flight-tested onboard the Deep Space One spacecraft in 1999. This version tracks multiple diagnostic hypotheses, rather than just a single hypothesis as in the previous version. It is also able to revise diagnostic decisions made in the past when additional observations become available. In such cases, Livingstone might arrive at an incorrect hypothesis. Re-architecting and re-implementing the system in C++ has increased performance. Usability has been improved by creating a set of development tools that is closely integrated with the Livingstone2 engine. In addition to the core diagnosis engine, Livingstone2 includes a compiler that translates diagnostic models written in a Java-like language into Livingstone2's language, and a broad set of graphical tools for model development.

  19. Simulating Complex Window Systems using BSDF Data

    SciTech Connect

    Konstantoglou, Maria; Jonsson, Jacob; Lee, Eleanor

    2009-06-22

    Nowadays, virtual models are commonly used to evaluate the performance of conventional window systems. Complex fenestration systems can be difficult to simulate accurately not only because of their geometry but also because of their optical properties that scatter light in an unpredictable manner. Bi-directional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF) have recently been developed based on a mixture of measurements and modelling to characterize the optics of such systems. This paper describes the workflow needed to create then use these BSDF datasets in the Radiance lighting simulation software. Limited comparisons are made between visualizations produced using the standard ray-tracing method, the BSDF method, and that taken in a full-scale outdoor mockup.

  20. Flowgraph Models for Complex Multistate System Reliabiliy.

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, B. J.; Huzurbazar, A. V.

    2005-01-01

    This chapter reviews flowgraph models for complex multistate systems. The focus is on modeling data from semi-Markov processes and constructing likelihoods when different portions of the system data are censored and incomplete. Semi-Markov models play an important role in the analysis of time to event data. However, in practice, data analysis for semi-Markov processes can be quite difficult and many simplifying assumptions are made. Flowgraph models are multistate models that provide a data analytic method for semi-Markov processes. Flowgraphs are useful for estimating Bayes predictive densities, predictive reliability functions, and predictive hazard functions for waiting times of interest in the presence of censored and incomplete data. This chapter reviews data analysis for flowgraph models and then presents methods for constructing likelihoods when portions of the system data are missing.

  1. PREFACE: Complex Dynamics in Spatially Extended Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Bohr, Tomas; Rasmussen, Jens Juul; Leth Christiansen, Peter

    1996-01-01

    Self-organization, or the spontaneous emergence of patterns and structures under far-from-equilibrium conditions, turbulence, and related nonlinear dynamic phenomena in spatially extended systems have developed into one of the most exciting topics of modern science. Phenomena of this type arise in a wide variety of different fields, ranging from the development of chemical and biological patterns in reaction-diffusion systems over vortex formation in connection with chemical, optical, hydrodynamic or magnetohydrodynamic turbulence to technical applications in connection with liquid crystal displays or pulse compression in optical communication systems. Lasers often show interesting patterns produced by self-focusing and other nonlinear phenomena, diffusion limited aggregation is known to generate fractal-like structures, and amazing struc- tures also arise in bacterial growth processes or when a droplet of an oil suspension of finely divided magnetic particles is subject to a magnetic field perpendicular to the surface of the cell in which it is contained. In September 1995 the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen was the venue of an International Conference on Complex Dynamics in Spatially Extended Systems. Organizers of the conference were the three Danish centers for nonlinear dynamics: The Center for Chaos and Turbulence Studies (CATS), located at the Niels Bohr Institute; the Center for Modeling, Nonlinear Dynamics and Irreversible Thermodynamics (MIDIT), located at the Technical University of Denmark, and the Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Continuum Systems, located at the Risø National Laboratories. In the spirit of the successful NATO Advanced Research Workshops on Spatiotemporal Patterns in Nonequilibrium Systems of which the last was held in Santa Fe, New Mexico in 1993, the conference aimed at stimulating new ideas and providing a forum for the exchange of knowledge between leading practitioners of the field. With its 50 invited speakers and more than

  2. Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaotic and Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Infeld, E.; Zelazny, R.; Galkowski, A.

    2011-04-01

    Part I. Dynamic Systems Bifurcation Theory and Chaos: 1. Chaos in random dynamical systems V. M. Gunldach; 2. Controlling chaos using embedded unstable periodic orbits: the problem of optimal periodic orbits B. R. Hunt and E. Ott; 3. Chaotic tracer dynamics in open hydrodynamical flows G. Karolyi, A. Pentek, T. Tel and Z. Toroczkai; 4. Homoclinic chaos L. P. Shilnikov; Part II. Spatially Extended Systems: 5. Hydrodynamics of relativistic probability flows I. Bialynicki-Birula; 6. Waves in ionic reaction-diffusion-migration systems P. Hasal, V. Nevoral, I. Schreiber, H. Sevcikova, D. Snita, and M. Marek; 7. Anomalous scaling in turbulence: a field theoretical approach V. Lvov and I. Procaccia; 8. Abelian sandpile cellular automata M. Markosova; 9. Transport in an incompletely chaotic magnetic field F. Spineanu; Part III. Dynamical Chaos Quantum Physics and Foundations Of Statistical Mechanics: 10. Non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and ergodic theory L. A. Bunimovich; 11. Pseudochaos in statistical physics B. Chirikov; 12. Foundations of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics J. P. Dougherty; 13. Thermomechanical particle simulations W. G. Hoover, H. A. Posch, C. H. Dellago, O. Kum, C. G. Hoover, A. J. De Groot and B. L. Holian; 14. Quantum dynamics on a Markov background and irreversibility B. Pavlov; 15. Time chaos and the laws of nature I. Prigogine and D. J. Driebe; 16. Evolutionary Q and cognitive systems: dynamic entropies and predictability of evolutionary processes W. Ebeling; 17. Spatiotemporal chaos information processing in neural networks H. Szu; 18. Phase transitions and learning in neural networks C. Van den Broeck; 19. Synthesis of chaos A. Vanecek and S. Celikovsky; 20. Computational complexity of continuous problems H. Wozniakowski; Part IV. Complex Systems As An Interface Between Natural Sciences and Environmental Social and Economic Sciences: 21. Stochastic differential geometry in finance studies V. G. Makhankov; Part V. Conference Banquet

  3. Complex system analysis using CI methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fathi, Madjid; Hildebrand, Lars

    1999-03-01

    Modern technical tasks often need the use of complex system models. In many complex cases the model parameters can be gained using neural networks, but these systems allow only a one-way simulation from the input values to the learned output values. If evaluation in the other direction is needed, these model allow no direct evaluation. This task can be solved using evolutionary algorithms, which are part of the computational intelligence. The term computational intelligence covers three special fields of the artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms. We will focus only on the topic of evolutionary algorithms and fuzzy logic. Evolutionary algorithms covers the fields of genetic algorithms, evolution strategies and evolutionary programming. These methods can be used to optimize technical problems. Evolutionary algorithms have certain advantages, if these problems have no mathematical properties, like steadiness or the possibility to obtain the derivatives. Fuzzy logic systems normally lack these properties. The use of a combination of evolutionary algorithms and fuzzy logic allow an evaluation of the learned simulation models in the direction form output to the input values. An example can be given from the field of screw rotor design.

  4. Safety assurance of complex integrated systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abrignani, Vincent A.; Jordan, John R.

    1991-01-01

    Interface hazard analysis (IHA) is used as a 'tool' to systematically assess safety for the integration of a diverse set of experiments and payload hardware into the Spacelab carrier which flies in the Space Shuttle's Orbiter cargo bay. The IHA when performed by a thorough analysis provides safety assurance of complex integrated systems by systematically linking analysis efforts performed by the organizations thus providing the respective elements to be integrated into an objective, unique analysis. Particular attention is given to verification methods of the safety assurance of the Spacelab carrier and its experiment payload for which the IHA was performed.

  5. Ultrametricity in the theory of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozyrev, S. V.

    2015-11-01

    We review applications of p-adic and ultrametric methods in the theory of complex systems. We consider the following examples: the p-adic parameterization of the Parisi matrix in the replica method; the method of hierarchical (interbasin) kinetics, which allows describing macromolecular dynamics by models of ultrametric diffusion; the two-dimensional 2-adic parameterization of the genetic code, which demonstrates that degenerations of the genetic code are described by local constancy domains of maps in the 2-adic metric. We discuss clustering methods for a family of metrics and demonstrate that the multiclustering (ensemble clustering) approach is related to the Bruhat-Tits building theory.

  6. Assessment Environment for Complex Systems Software Guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2013-01-01

    This Software Guide (SG) describes the software developed to test the Assessment Environment for Complex Systems (AECS) by the West Virginia High Technology Consortium (WVHTC) Foundation's Mission Systems Group (MSG) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD). This software is referred to as the AECS Test Project throughout the remainder of this document. AECS provides a framework for developing, simulating, testing, and analyzing modern avionics systems within an Integrated Modular Avionics (IMA) architecture. The purpose of the AECS Test Project is twofold. First, it provides a means to test the AECS hardware and system developed by MSG. Second, it provides an example project upon which future AECS research may be based. This Software Guide fully describes building, installing, and executing the AECS Test Project as well as its architecture and design. The design of the AECS hardware is described in the AECS Hardware Guide. Instructions on how to configure, build and use the AECS are described in the User's Guide. Sample AECS software, developed by the WVHTC Foundation, is presented in the AECS Software Guide. The AECS Hardware Guide, AECS User's Guide, and AECS Software Guide are authored by MSG. The requirements set forth for AECS are presented in the Statement of Work for the Assessment Environment for Complex Systems authored by NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC). The intended audience for this document includes software engineers, hardware engineers, project managers, and quality assurance personnel from WVHTC Foundation (the suppliers of the software), NASA (the customer), and future researchers (users of the software). Readers are assumed to have general knowledge in the field of real-time, embedded computer software development.

  7. Contrarian behavior in a complex adaptive system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Y.; An, K. N.; Yang, G.; Huang, J. P.

    2013-01-01

    Contrarian behavior is a kind of self-organization in complex adaptive systems (CASs). Here we report the existence of a transition point in a model resource-allocation CAS with contrarian behavior by using human experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analysis. The resource ratio and system predictability serve as the tuning parameter and order parameter, respectively. The transition point helps to reveal the positive or negative role of contrarian behavior. This finding is in contrast to the common belief that contrarian behavior always has a positive role in resource allocation, say, stabilizing resource allocation by shrinking the redundancy or the lack of resources. It is further shown that resource allocation can be optimized at the transition point by adding an appropriate size of contrarians. This work is also expected to be of value to some other fields ranging from management and social science to ecology and evolution.

  8. Innovative Design of Complex Engineering Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

    2004-01-01

    The document contains the proceedings of the training workshop on Innovative Design of Complex Engineering Systems. The workshop was held at the Peninsula Higher Education Center, Hampton, Virginia, March 23 and 24, 2004. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University and NASA. Workshop attendees came from NASA, other government agencies, industry and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to a) provide broad overviews of the diverse activities related to innovative design of high-tech engineering systems; and b) identify training needs for future aerospace work force development in the design area. The format of the workshop included fifteen, half-hour overview-type presentations, a panel discussion on how to teach and train engineers in innovative design, and three exhibits by commercial vendors.

  9. Theoretical kinetic computations in complex reacting systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bittker, David A.

    1986-01-01

    Nasa Lewis' studies of complex reacting systems at high temperature are discussed. The changes which occur are the result of many different chemical reactions occurring at the same time. Both an experimental and a theoretical approach are needed to fully understand what happens in these systems. The latter approach is discussed. The differential equations which describe the chemical and thermodynamic changes are given. Their solution by numerical techniques using a detailed chemical mechanism is described. Several different comparisons of computed results with experimental measurements are also given. These include the computation of (1) species concentration profiles in batch and flow reactions, (2) rocket performance in nozzle expansions, and (3) pressure versus time profiles in hydrocarbon ignition processes. The examples illustrate the use of detailed kinetic computations to elucidate a chemical mechanism and to compute practical quantities such as rocket performance, ignition delay times, and ignition lengths in flow processes.

  10. Contrarian behavior in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Liang, Y; An, K N; Yang, G; Huang, J P

    2013-01-01

    Contrarian behavior is a kind of self-organization in complex adaptive systems (CASs). Here we report the existence of a transition point in a model resource-allocation CAS with contrarian behavior by using human experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analysis. The resource ratio and system predictability serve as the tuning parameter and order parameter, respectively. The transition point helps to reveal the positive or negative role of contrarian behavior. This finding is in contrast to the common belief that contrarian behavior always has a positive role in resource allocation, say, stabilizing resource allocation by shrinking the redundancy or the lack of resources. It is further shown that resource allocation can be optimized at the transition point by adding an appropriate size of contrarians. This work is also expected to be of value to some other fields ranging from management and social science to ecology and evolution.

  11. Alarm system for a nuclear control complex

    DOEpatents

    Scarola, Kenneth; Jamison, David S.; Manazir, Richard M.; Rescorl, Robert L.; Harmon, Daryl L.

    1994-01-01

    An advanced control room complex for a nuclear power plant, including a discrete indicator and alarm system (72) which is nuclear qualified for rapid response to changes in plant parameters and a component control system (64) which together provide a discrete monitoring and control capability at a panel (14-22, 26, 28) in the control room (10). A separate data processing system (70), which need not be nuclear qualified, provides integrated and overview information to the control room and to each panel, through CRTs (84) and a large, overhead integrated process status overview board (24). The discrete indicator and alarm system (72) and the data processing system (70) receive inputs from common plant sensors and validate the sensor outputs to arrive at a representative value of the parameter for use by the operator during both normal and accident conditions, thereby avoiding the need for him to assimilate data from each sensor individually. The integrated process status board (24) is at the apex of an information hierarchy that extends through four levels and provides access at each panel to the full display hierarchy. The control room panels are preferably of a modular construction, permitting the definition of inputs and outputs, the man machine interface, and the plant specific algorithms, to proceed in parallel with the fabrication of the panels, the installation of the equipment and the generic testing thereof.

  12. Topological analysis of complexity in multiagent systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abaid, Nicole; Bollt, Erik; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2012-04-01

    Social organisms at every level of evolutionary complexity live in groups, such as fish schools, locust swarms, and bird flocks. The complex exchange of multifaceted information across group members may result in a spectrum of salient spatiotemporal patterns characterizing collective behaviors. While instances of collective behavior in animal groups are readily identifiable by trained and untrained observers, a working definition to distinguish these patterns from raw data is not yet established. In this work, we define collective behavior as a manifestation of low-dimensional manifolds in the group motion and we quantify the complexity of such behaviors through the dimensionality of these structures. We demonstrate this definition using the ISOMAP algorithm, a data-driven machine learning algorithm for dimensionality reduction originally formulated in the context of image processing. We apply the ISOMAP algorithm to data from an interacting self-propelled particle model with additive noise, whose parameters are selected to exhibit different behavioral modalities, and from a video of a live fish school. Based on simulations of such model, we find that increasing noise in the system of particles corresponds to increasing the dimensionality of the structures underlying their motion. These low-dimensional structures are absent in simulations where particles do not interact. Applying the ISOMAP algorithm to fish school data, we identify similar low-dimensional structures, which may act as quantitative evidence for order inherent in collective behavior of animal groups. These results offer an unambiguous method for measuring order in data from large-scale biological systems and confirm the emergence of collective behavior in an applicable mathematical model, thus demonstrating that such models are capable of capturing phenomena observed in animal groups.

  13. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  14. Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Simons, R R L; Smith, R P; Arnold, M E; Broughan, J; Kosmider, R; Downs, S H

    2016-01-01

    Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date.

  15. Herd behavior in a complex adaptive system

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Li; Yang, Guang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Yu; Huang, J. P.; Ohashi, Hirotada; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2011-01-01

    In order to survive, self-serving agents in various kinds of complex adaptive systems (CASs) must compete against others for sharing limited resources with biased or unbiased distribution by conducting strategic behaviors. This competition can globally result in the balance of resource allocation. As a result, most of the agents and species can survive well. However, it is a common belief that the formation of a herd in a CAS will cause excess volatility, which can ruin the balance of resource allocation in the CAS. Here this belief is challenged with the results obtained from a modeled resource-allocation system. Based on this system, we designed and conducted a series of computer-aided human experiments including herd behavior. We also performed agent-based simulations and theoretical analyses, in order to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that, as long as the ratio of the two resources for allocation is biased enough, the formation of a typically sized herd can help the system to reach the balanced state. This resource ratio also serves as the critical point for a class of phase transition identified herein, which can be used to discover the role change of herd behavior, from a ruinous one to a helpful one. This work is also of value to some fields, ranging from management and social science, to ecology and evolution, and to physics. PMID:21876133

  16. Optimal control of complex atomic quantum systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Frank, S.; Bonneau, M.; Schmiedmayer, J.; Hild, S.; Gross, C.; Cheneau, M.; Bloch, I.; Pichler, T.; Negretti, A.; Calarco, T.; Montangero, S.

    2016-10-01

    Quantum technologies will ultimately require manipulating many-body quantum systems with high precision. Cold atom experiments represent a stepping stone in that direction: a high degree of control has been achieved on systems of increasing complexity. However, this control is still sub-optimal. In many scenarios, achieving a fast transformation is crucial to fight against decoherence and imperfection effects. Optimal control theory is believed to be the ideal candidate to bridge the gap between early stage proof-of-principle demonstrations and experimental protocols suitable for practical applications. Indeed, it can engineer protocols at the quantum speed limit – the fastest achievable timescale of the transformation. Here, we demonstrate such potential by computing theoretically and verifying experimentally the optimal transformations in two very different interacting systems: the coherent manipulation of motional states of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate and the crossing of a quantum phase transition in small systems of cold atoms in optical lattices. We also show that such processes are robust with respect to perturbations, including temperature and atom number fluctuations.

  17. Optimal control of complex atomic quantum systems

    PubMed Central

    van Frank, S.; Bonneau, M.; Schmiedmayer, J.; Hild, S.; Gross, C.; Cheneau, M.; Bloch, I.; Pichler, T.; Negretti, A.; Calarco, T.; Montangero, S.

    2016-01-01

    Quantum technologies will ultimately require manipulating many-body quantum systems with high precision. Cold atom experiments represent a stepping stone in that direction: a high degree of control has been achieved on systems of increasing complexity. However, this control is still sub-optimal. In many scenarios, achieving a fast transformation is crucial to fight against decoherence and imperfection effects. Optimal control theory is believed to be the ideal candidate to bridge the gap between early stage proof-of-principle demonstrations and experimental protocols suitable for practical applications. Indeed, it can engineer protocols at the quantum speed limit – the fastest achievable timescale of the transformation. Here, we demonstrate such potential by computing theoretically and verifying experimentally the optimal transformations in two very different interacting systems: the coherent manipulation of motional states of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate and the crossing of a quantum phase transition in small systems of cold atoms in optical lattices. We also show that such processes are robust with respect to perturbations, including temperature and atom number fluctuations. PMID:27725688

  18. Optimal control of complex atomic quantum systems.

    PubMed

    van Frank, S; Bonneau, M; Schmiedmayer, J; Hild, S; Gross, C; Cheneau, M; Bloch, I; Pichler, T; Negretti, A; Calarco, T; Montangero, S

    2016-10-11

    Quantum technologies will ultimately require manipulating many-body quantum systems with high precision. Cold atom experiments represent a stepping stone in that direction: a high degree of control has been achieved on systems of increasing complexity. However, this control is still sub-optimal. In many scenarios, achieving a fast transformation is crucial to fight against decoherence and imperfection effects. Optimal control theory is believed to be the ideal candidate to bridge the gap between early stage proof-of-principle demonstrations and experimental protocols suitable for practical applications. Indeed, it can engineer protocols at the quantum speed limit - the fastest achievable timescale of the transformation. Here, we demonstrate such potential by computing theoretically and verifying experimentally the optimal transformations in two very different interacting systems: the coherent manipulation of motional states of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate and the crossing of a quantum phase transition in small systems of cold atoms in optical lattices. We also show that such processes are robust with respect to perturbations, including temperature and atom number fluctuations.

  19. Visualizing complex (hydrological) systems with correlation matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haas, J. C.

    2016-12-01

    When trying to understand or visualize the connections of different aspects of a complex system, this often requires deeper understanding to start with, or - in the case of geo data - complicated GIS software. To our knowledge, correlation matrices have rarely been used in hydrology (e.g. Stoll et al., 2011; van Loon and Laaha, 2015), yet they do provide an interesting option for data visualization and analysis. We present a simple, python based way - using a river catchment as an example - to visualize correlations and similarities in an easy and colorful way. We apply existing and easy to use python packages from various disciplines not necessarily linked to the Earth sciences and can thus quickly show how different aquifers work or react, and identify outliers, enabling this system to also be used for quality control of large datasets. Going beyond earlier work, we add a temporal and spatial element, enabling us to visualize how a system reacts to local phenomena such as for example a river, or changes over time, by visualizing the passing of time in an animated movie. References: van Loon, A.F., Laaha, G.: Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics, Journal of Hydrology 526, 3-14, 2015, Drought processes, modeling, and mitigation Stoll, S., Hendricks Franssen, H. J., Barthel, R., Kinzelbach, W.: What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15(12), 3861-3875, 2011

  20. Automatic restart of complex irrigation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Werner, H.D.; Alcock, R.; DeBoer, D.W.; Olson, D.I. . Dept. of Agricultural Engineering)

    1992-05-01

    Automatic restart of irrigation systems under load management has the potential to maximize pumping time during off-peak hours. Existing automation technology ranges from time delay relays to more sophisticated control using computers together with weather data to optimize irrigation practices. Centrifugal pumps and water hammer concerns prevent automatic restart of common but often complex irrigation systems in South Dakota. The irrigator must manually prime the pump and control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Methods to prime centrifugal pumps and control water hammer facilitate automatic restart after load management is released. Seven priming methods and three water hammer control methods were investigated. A sump pump and small vacuum pump were used to test two automatic prime and restart systems in the laboratory. A variable frequency phase converter was also used to automatically control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Economical methods to safely prime and restart centrifugal pumps were discussed. The water hammer control methods safely pressurize the pipeline but require a higher initial investment. The automatic restart systems can be used to safely restart centrifugal pumps and control water hammer after load management is released. Based upon laboratory research and a technical review of available restart components, a computer software program was developed. The program assists customers in evaluating various restart options for automatic restarting of electric irrigation pumps. For further information on the software program, contact the South Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Engineering.

  1. Herd behavior in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Li; Yang, Guang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Yu; Huang, J P; Ohashi, Hirotada; Stanley, H Eugene

    2011-09-13

    In order to survive, self-serving agents in various kinds of complex adaptive systems (CASs) must compete against others for sharing limited resources with biased or unbiased distribution by conducting strategic behaviors. This competition can globally result in the balance of resource allocation. As a result, most of the agents and species can survive well. However, it is a common belief that the formation of a herd in a CAS will cause excess volatility, which can ruin the balance of resource allocation in the CAS. Here this belief is challenged with the results obtained from a modeled resource-allocation system. Based on this system, we designed and conducted a series of computer-aided human experiments including herd behavior. We also performed agent-based simulations and theoretical analyses, in order to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that, as long as the ratio of the two resources for allocation is biased enough, the formation of a typically sized herd can help the system to reach the balanced state. This resource ratio also serves as the critical point for a class of phase transition identified herein, which can be used to discover the role change of herd behavior, from a ruinous one to a helpful one. This work is also of value to some fields, ranging from management and social science, to ecology and evolution, and to physics.

  2. Orbital Architectures of Dynamically Complex Exoplanet Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Benjamin E.

    2015-01-01

    The most powerful constraints on planet formation will come from characterizing the dynamical state of complex multi-planet systems. Unfortunately, with that complexity comes a number of factors that make analyzing these systems a computationally challenging endeavor: the sheer number of model parameters, a wonky shaped posterior distribution, and hundreds to thousands of time series measurements. We develop a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC) to tackle these difficult aspects of data analysis. We apply RUN DMC to two classic multi-planet systems from radial velocity surveys, 55 Cancri and GJ 876. For 55 Cancri, we find the inner-most planet "e" must be coplanar to within 40 degrees of the outer planets, otherwise Kozai-like perturbations will cause the planet's orbit to cross the stellar surface. We find the orbits of planets "b" and "c" are apsidally aligned and librating with low to median amplitude (50±610 degrees), but they are not orbiting in a mean-motion resonance. For GJ 876, we can meaningfully constrain the three-dimensional orbital architecture of all the planets based on the radial velocity data alone. By demanding orbital stability, we find the resonant planets have low mutual inclinations (Φ) so they must be roughly coplanar (Φcb = 1.41±0.620.57 degrees and Φbe = 3.87±1.991.86 degrees). The three-dimensional Laplace argument librates with an amplitude of 50.5±7.910.0 degrees, indicating significant past disk migration and ensuring long-term stability. These empirically derived models will provide new challenges for planet formation models and motivate the need for more sophisticated algorithms to analyze exoplanet data.

  3. Empirical and theoretical analysis of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Guannan

    This thesis is an interdisciplinary work under the heading of complexity science which focuses on an arguably common "hard" problem across physics, finance and biology [1], to quantify and mimic the macroscopic "emergent phenomenon" in large-scale systems consisting of many interacting "particles" governed by microscopic rules. In contrast to traditional statistical physics, we are interested in systems whose dynamics are subject to feedback, evolution, adaption, openness, etc. Global financial markets, like the stock market and currency market, are ideal candidate systems for such a complexity study: there exists a vast amount of accurate data, which is the aggregate output of many autonomous agents continuously competing with each other. We started by examining the ultrafast "mini flash crash (MFC)" events in the US stock market. An abrupt system-wide composition transition from a mixed human machine phase to a new all-machine phase is uncovered, and a novel theory developed to explain this observation. Then in the study of FX market, we found an unexpected variation in the synchronicity of price changes in different market subsections as a function of the overall trading activity. Several survival models have been tested in analyzing the distribution of waiting times to the next price change. In the region of long waiting-times, the distribution for each currency pair exhibits a power law with exponent in the vicinity of 3.5. By contrast, for short waiting times only, the market activity can be mimicked by the fluctuations emerging from a finite resource competition model containing multiple agents with limited rationality (so called El Farol Model). Switching to the biomedical domain, we present a minimal mathematical model built around a co-evolving resource network and cell population, yielding good agreement with primary tumors in mice experiment and with clinical metastasis data. In the quest to understand contagion phenomena in systems where social group

  4. Complex biological and bio-inspired systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ecke, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    The understanding and characterization ofthe fundamental processes of the function of biological systems underpins many of the important challenges facing American society, from the pathology of infectious disease and the efficacy ofvaccines, to the development of materials that mimic biological functionality and deliver exceptional and novel structural and dynamic properties. These problems are fundamentally complex, involving many interacting components and poorly understood bio-chemical kinetics. We use the basic science of statistical physics, kinetic theory, cellular bio-chemistry, soft-matter physics, and information science to develop cell level models and explore the use ofbiomimetic materials. This project seeks to determine how cell level processes, such as response to mechanical stresses, chemical constituents and related gradients, and other cell signaling mechanisms, integrate and combine to create a functioning organism. The research focuses on the basic physical processes that take place at different levels ofthe biological organism: the basic role of molecular and chemical interactions are investigated, the dynamics of the DNA-molecule and its phylogenetic role are examined and the regulatory networks of complex biochemical processes are modeled. These efforts may lead to early warning algorithms ofpathogen outbreaks, new bio-sensors to detect hazards from pathomic viruses to chemical contaminants. Other potential applications include the development of efficient bio-fuel alternative-energy processes and the exploration ofnovel materials for energy usages. Finally, we use the notion of 'coarse-graining,' which is a method for averaging over less important degrees of freedom to develop computational models to predict cell function and systems-level response to disease, chemical stress, or biological pathomic agents. This project supports Energy Security, Threat Reduction, and the missions of the DOE Office of Science through its efforts to accurately

  5. Complexity in Strongly Correlated Electronic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Dagotto, Elbio R

    2005-01-01

    A wide variety of experimental results and theoretical investigations in recent years have convincingly demonstrated that several transition metal oxides and other materials have dominant states that are not spatially homogeneous. This occurs in cases in which several physical interactions - spin, charge, lattice, and/or orbital - are simultaneously active. This phenomenon causes interesting effects, such as colossal magnetoresistance, and it also appears crucial to understand the high-temperature superconductors. The spontaneous emergence of electronic nanometer-scale structures in transition metal oxides, and the existence of many competing states, are properties often associated with complex matter where nonlinearities dominate, such as soft materials and biological systems. This electronic complexity could have potential consequences for applications of correlated electronic materials, because not only charge (semiconducting electronic), or charge and spin (spintronics) are of relevance, but in addition the lattice and orbital degrees of freedom are active, leading to giant responses to small perturbations. Moreover, several metallic and insulating phases compete, increasing the potential for novel behavior.

  6. Using SysML to model complex systems for security.

    SciTech Connect

    Cano, Lester Arturo

    2010-08-01

    As security systems integrate more Information Technology the design of these systems has tended to become more complex. Some of the most difficult issues in designing Complex Security Systems (CSS) are: Capturing Requirements: Defining Hardware Interfaces: Defining Software Interfaces: Integrating Technologies: Radio Systems: Voice Over IP Systems: Situational Awareness Systems.

  7. Nematodes ultrastructure: complex systems and processes.

    PubMed

    Basyoni, Maha M A; Rizk, Enas M A

    2016-12-01

    Nematode worms are among the most ubiquitous organisms on earth. They include free-living forms as well as parasites of plants, insects, humans and other animals. Recently, there has been an explosion of interest in nematode biology, including the area of nematode ultrastructure. Nematodes are round with a body cavity. They have one way guts with a mouth at one end and an anus at the other. They have a pseudocoelom that is lined on one side with mesoderm and on the other side with endoderm. It appears that the cuticle is a very complex and evolutionarily plastic feature with important functions involving protection, body movement and maintaining shape. They only have longitudinal muscles so; they seem to thrash back and forth. While nematodes have digestive, reproductive, nervous and excretory systems, they do not have discrete circulatory or respiratory systems. Nematodes use chemosensory and mechanosensory neurons embedded in the cuticle to orient and respond to a wide range of environmental stimuli. Adults are made up of roughly 1000 somatic cells and hundreds of those cells are typically associated with the reproductive systems. Nematodes ultrastructure seeks to provide studies which enable their use as models for diverse biological processes including; human diseases, immunity, host-parasitic interactions and the expression of phylogenomics. The latter has, however, not been brought into a single inclusive entity. Consequently, in the current review we tried to provide a comprehensive approach to the current knowledge available for nematodes ultrastructures.

  8. Evolutionary resilience and complex lagoon systems.

    PubMed

    Davoudi, Simin; Zaucha, Jacek; Brooks, Elizabeth

    2016-10-01

    The present study applies an evolutionary resilience framework to complex socioecological systems in the coastal regions in Europe with a particular focus on lagoons. Despite their variations, lagoons share common challenges in achieving effective and sustainable ways of governing and managing economic, social, and environmental uncertainties. Our aim is to demonstrate that building resilience involves planning not only for recovery from shocks but also for cultivating preparedness and seeking potential transformative opportunities that emerge from change. The framework consists of 4 dimensions: persistence, adaptability, transformability, and preparedness. To illustrate how this 4-dimensional framework can be applied to the specific context of lagoons, we draw on examples of good and poor practices from the 10 lagoons studied as part of the ARCH project. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:711-718. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  9. Modeling complex systems in the geosciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-03-01

    Many geophysical phenomena can be described as complex systems, involving phenomena such as extreme or "wild" events that often do not follow the Gaussian distribution that would be expected if the events were simply random and uncorrelated. For instance, some geophysical phenomena like earthquakes show a much higher occurrence of relatively large values than would a Gaussian distribution and so are examples of the "Noah effect" (named by Benoit Mandelbrot for the exceptionally heavy rain in the biblical flood). Other geophysical phenomena are examples of the "Joseph effect," in which a state is especially persistent, such as a spell of multiple consecutive hot days (heat waves) or several dry summers in a row. The Joseph effect was named after the biblical story in which Joseph's dream of seven fat cows and seven thin ones predicted 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of drought.

  10. The Neo-Liberalisation Policy Agenda and Its Consequences for Education in England: A Focus on Resistance Now and Possibilities for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maisuria, Alpesh

    2014-01-01

    In this article, the author explores the way that neo-liberalism is becoming more entrenched in the fabric of the education system in England. The article begins by setting out a very brief historical trajectory of neo-liberalism to provide a working definition of a complex and disarticulated socio-political and economic system. In part two, this…

  11. The Neo-Liberalisation Policy Agenda and Its Consequences for Education in England: A Focus on Resistance Now and Possibilities for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maisuria, Alpesh

    2014-01-01

    In this article, the author explores the way that neo-liberalism is becoming more entrenched in the fabric of the education system in England. The article begins by setting out a very brief historical trajectory of neo-liberalism to provide a working definition of a complex and disarticulated socio-political and economic system. In part two, this…

  12. Glycosaminoglycan Interactions with Chemokines Add Complexity to a Complex System

    PubMed Central

    Proudfoot, Amanda E. I.; Johnson, Zoë; Bonvin, Pauline; Handel, Tracy M.

    2017-01-01

    Chemokines have two types of interactions that function cooperatively to control cell migration. Chemokine receptors on migrating cells integrate signals initiated upon chemokine binding to promote cell movement. Interactions with glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) localize chemokines on and near cell surfaces and the extracellular matrix to provide direction to the cell movement. The matrix of interacting chemokine–receptor partners has been known for some time, precise signaling and trafficking properties of many chemokine–receptor pairs have been characterized, and recent structural information has revealed atomic level detail on chemokine–receptor recognition and activation. However, precise knowledge of the interactions of chemokines with GAGs has lagged far behind such that a single paradigm of GAG presentation on surfaces is generally applied to all chemokines. This review summarizes accumulating evidence which suggests that there is a great deal of diversity and specificity in these interactions, that GAG interactions help fine-tune the function of chemokines, and that GAGs have other roles in chemokine biology beyond localization and surface presentation. This suggests that chemokine–GAG interactions add complexity to the already complex functions of the receptors and ligands. PMID:28792472

  13. 77 FR 42699 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-20

    ... Director, New England Fishery Management Council; telephone: (978) 465-0492. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The... modifications to the current days-at-sea (DAS) management system, including alternatives to enable DAS leasing... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC116 New England Fishery Management...

  14. Factors Affecting Completion of Apprenticeship Training in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gambin, Lynn; Hogarth, Terence

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines factors that are associated with the probability of completion of apprenticeship programmes by individual learners in England. Data are from the 2008/2009 academic year Individualised Learner Record--the administrative database containing information on all learners in the Further Education system in England. The analysis…

  15. Factors Affecting Completion of Apprenticeship Training in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gambin, Lynn; Hogarth, Terence

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines factors that are associated with the probability of completion of apprenticeship programmes by individual learners in England. Data are from the 2008/2009 academic year Individualised Learner Record--the administrative database containing information on all learners in the Further Education system in England. The analysis…

  16. Policy for Language Education in England: Does Less Mean More?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Linda

    2004-01-01

    This paper details major and significant developments in the teaching of English to pupils aged 5-16 years in the school system in England, the years of compulsory education. To begin with definitions of terms. There are four aspects of language education provision that pertain in England: (1) the teaching of English as the mother tongue; (2) the…

  17. Confusion in the Ranks: How Good Are England's Schools?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smithers, Alan

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how well English education performs compared with other countries is a valuable exercise, particularly because the information can help England and other countries learn from successful systems. The most recent international league tables of pupil performance differ considerably. England languishes well down the list in PISA 2009,…

  18. Adaptive generalized combination complex synchronization of uncertain real and complex nonlinear systems

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Shi-bing E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn; Wang, Xing-yuan E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn; Wang, Xiu-you; Zhou, Yu-fei

    2016-04-15

    With comprehensive consideration of generalized synchronization, combination synchronization and adaptive control, this paper investigates a novel adaptive generalized combination complex synchronization (AGCCS) scheme for different real and complex nonlinear systems with unknown parameters. On the basis of Lyapunov stability theory and adaptive control, an AGCCS controller and parameter update laws are derived to achieve synchronization and parameter identification of two real drive systems and a complex response system, as well as two complex drive systems and a real response system. Two simulation examples, namely, ACGCS for chaotic real Lorenz and Chen systems driving a hyperchaotic complexsystem, and hyperchaotic complex Lorenz and Chen systems driving a real chaotic Lü system, are presented to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

  19. Ancestral vertebrate complexity of the opioid system.

    PubMed

    Larhammar, Dan; Bergqvist, Christina; Sundström, Görel

    2015-01-01

    The evolution of the opioid peptides and nociceptin/orphanin as well as their receptors has been difficult to resolve due to variable evolutionary rates. By combining sequence comparisons with information on the chromosomal locations of the genes, we have deduced the following evolutionary scenario: The vertebrate predecessor had one opioid precursor gene and one receptor gene. The two genome doublings before the vertebrate radiation resulted in three peptide precursor genes whereupon a fourth copy arose by a local gene duplication. These four precursors diverged to become the prepropeptides for endorphin (POMC), enkephalins, dynorphins, and nociceptin, respectively. The ancestral receptor gene was quadrupled in the genome doublings leading to delta, kappa, and mu and the nociceptin/orphanin receptor. This scenario is corroborated by new data presented here for coelacanth and spotted gar, representing two basal branches in the vertebrate tree. A third genome doubling in the ancestor of teleost fishes generated additional gene copies. These results show that the opioid system was quite complex already in the first vertebrates and that it has more components in teleost fishes than in mammals. From an evolutionary point of view, nociceptin and its receptor can be considered full-fledged members of the opioid system.

  20. RNA viruses as complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Elena, Santiago F; Sanjuán, Rafael

    2005-07-01

    RNA viruses have high mutation rates and so their populations exist as dynamic and complex mutant distributions. It has been consistently observed that when challenged with a new environment, viral populations adapt following hyperbolic-like kinetics: adaptation is initially very rapid, but then slows down as fitness reaches an asymptotic value. These adaptive dynamics have been explained in terms of populations moving towards the top of peaks on rugged fitness landscapes. Fitness fluctuations of varying magnitude are observed during adaptation. Often the presence of fluctuations in the evolution of physical systems indicates some form of self-organization, or where many components of the system are simultaneously involved. Here we analyze data from several in vitro evolution experiments carried out with vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) looking for the signature of criticality and scaling. Long-range fitness correlations have been detected during the adaptive process. We also found that the magnitude of fitness fluctuations, far from being trivial, conform to a Weibull probability distribution function, suggesting that viral adaptation belongs to a broad category of phenomena previously documented in other fields and related with emergence.

  1. A complex systems approach to bibliometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stringer, Michael J.

    Enabled by technological change, we are in the midst of a fundamental shift in how scientific information is produced and communicated. Electronic publishing, preprint archives, blogs, and wikis are emerging as possible viable alternatives to the current journal publishing and peer review system. However, these new technologies flood the environment with information, making it increasingly difficult to find the highest quality and most relevant papers. Additionally, accreditation and quality assessment of published material becomes nearly impossible for agencies interested in funding the research and development that is most likely to succeed. Recently, bibliometric tools have emerged as an effective means for the filtering, accreditation, and assessment of scholarly information. In this thesis, we approach bibliometrics from a complex systems perspective. A unique characteristic of the work presented in this thesis is that we perform empirical validation of bibliometric models using the most comprehensive bibliographic database available. Using these methods, we quantify the dynamics of citations to scientific journals, and investigate the relationship between social network position and research performance.

  2. Major Depression as a Complex Dynamic System

    PubMed Central

    Cramer, Angélique O. J.; van Borkulo, Claudia D.; Giltay, Erik J.; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Scheffer, Marten; Borsboom, Denny

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we characterize major depression (MD) as a complex dynamic system in which symptoms (e.g., insomnia and fatigue) are directly connected to one another in a network structure. We hypothesize that individuals can be characterized by their own network with unique architecture and resulting dynamics. With respect to architecture, we show that individuals vulnerable to developing MD are those with strong connections between symptoms: e.g., only one night of poor sleep suffices to make a particular person feel tired. Such vulnerable networks, when pushed by forces external to the system such as stress, are more likely to end up in a depressed state; whereas networks with weaker connections tend to remain in or return to a non-depressed state. We show this with a simulation in which we model the probability of a symptom becoming ‘active’ as a logistic function of the activity of its neighboring symptoms. Additionally, we show that this model potentially explains some well-known empirical phenomena such as spontaneous recovery as well as accommodates existing theories about the various subtypes of MD. To our knowledge, we offer the first intra-individual, symptom-based, process model with the potential to explain the pathogenesis and maintenance of major depression. PMID:27930698

  3. Characterization of fHbp, nhba (gna2132), nadA, porA, sequence type (ST), and genomic presence of IS1301 in group B meningococcal ST269 clonal complex isolates from England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Lucidarme, Jay; Comanducci, Maurizio; Findlow, Jamie; Gray, Stephen J; Kaczmarski, Edward B; Guiver, Malcolm; Kugelberg, Elisabeth; Vallely, Pamela J; Oster, Philipp; Pizza, Mariagrazia; Bambini, Stefania; Muzzi, Alessandro; Tang, Christoph M; Borrow, Ray

    2009-11-01

    Highly effective glycoconjugate vaccines exist against four of the five major pathogenic groups of meningococci: A, C, W-135, and Y. An equivalent vaccine against group B meningococci (menB) has remained elusive due to the poorly immunogenic capsular polysaccharide. A promising alternative, the investigational recombinant menB (rMenB)- outer membrane vesicle (OMV) vaccine, contains fHBP, NHBA (previously GNA2132), NadA, and outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) from the New Zealand MeNZB vaccine. MenB currently accounts for 90% of meningococcal disease in England and Wales, where the multilocus sequence type (ST) 269 (ST269) clonal complex (cc269) has recently expanded to account for a third of menB cases. To assess the potential cc269 coverage of the rMenB-OMV vaccine, English and Welsh cc269 isolates from the past decade were genetically characterized with respect to fHBP, NHBA, and NadA. All of the isolates harbored fHbp and nhba alleles, while 98% of the cc269 isolates were devoid of nadA. Subvariant profiling of fHbp, nhba, and porA against STs revealed the presence of two broadly distinct and well-defined clusters of isolates, centered around ST269 and ST275, respectively. An additional molecular marker, insertion sequence IS1301, was found to be present in 100% and <2% of isolates of the respective clusters. On the basis of the genetic data, the potential rMenB-OMV coverage of cc269 in England and Wales is high (up to 100%) within both clusters. Expression studies and serum bactericidal antibody assays will serve to enhance predictions of coverage and will augment ongoing studies regarding the significance of IS1301 within the ST269 cluster.

  4. Characterization of fHbp, nhba (gna2132), nadA, porA, Sequence Type (ST), and Genomic Presence of IS1301 in Group B Meningococcal ST269 Clonal Complex Isolates from England and Wales▿

    PubMed Central

    Lucidarme, Jay; Comanducci, Maurizio; Findlow, Jamie; Gray, Stephen J.; Kaczmarski, Edward B.; Guiver, Malcolm; Kugelberg, Elisabeth; Vallely, Pamela J.; Oster, Philipp; Pizza, Mariagrazia; Bambini, Stefania; Muzzi, Alessandro; Tang, Christoph M.; Borrow, Ray

    2009-01-01

    Highly effective glycoconjugate vaccines exist against four of the five major pathogenic groups of meningococci: A, C, W-135, and Y. An equivalent vaccine against group B meningococci (menB) has remained elusive due to the poorly immunogenic capsular polysaccharide. A promising alternative, the investigational recombinant menB (rMenB)- outer membrane vesicle (OMV) vaccine, contains fHBP, NHBA (previously GNA2132), NadA, and outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) from the New Zealand MeNZB vaccine. MenB currently accounts for 90% of meningococcal disease in England and Wales, where the multilocus sequence type (ST) 269 (ST269) clonal complex (cc269) has recently expanded to account for a third of menB cases. To assess the potential cc269 coverage of the rMenB-OMV vaccine, English and Welsh cc269 isolates from the past decade were genetically characterized with respect to fHBP, NHBA, and NadA. All of the isolates harbored fHbp and nhba alleles, while 98% of the cc269 isolates were devoid of nadA. Subvariant profiling of fHbp, nhba, and porA against STs revealed the presence of two broadly distinct and well-defined clusters of isolates, centered around ST269 and ST275, respectively. An additional molecular marker, insertion sequence IS1301, was found to be present in 100% and <2% of isolates of the respective clusters. On the basis of the genetic data, the potential rMenB-OMV coverage of cc269 in England and Wales is high (up to 100%) within both clusters. Expression studies and serum bactericidal antibody assays will serve to enhance predictions of coverage and will augment ongoing studies regarding the significance of IS1301 within the ST269 cluster. PMID:19759227

  5. Understanding Complex Adaptive Systems by Playing Games

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Bilsen, Arthur; Bekebrede, Geertje; Mayer, Igor

    2010-01-01

    While educators teach their students about decision making in complex environments, managers have to deal with the complexity of large projects on a daily basis. To make better decisions it is assumed, that the latter would benefit from better understanding of complex phenomena, as do students as the professionals of the future. The goal of this…

  6. Rupture Synchronicity in Complex Fault Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milner, K. R.; Jordan, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    While most investigators would agree that the timing of large earthquakes within a fault system depends on stress-mediated interactions among its elements, much of the debate relevant to time-dependent forecasting has been centered on single-fault concepts, such as characteristic earthquake behavior. We propose to broaden this discussion by quantifying the multi-fault concept of rupture synchronicity. We consider a finite set of small, fault-spanning volumes {Vk} within a fault system of arbitrary (fractal) complexity. We let Ck be the catalog of length tmax comprising Nk discrete times {ti(k)} that mark when the kth volume participates in a rupture of magnitude > M. The main object of our analysis is the complete set of event time differences {τij(kk') = ti(k) - tj(k')}, which we take to be a random process with an expected density function ρkk'(t). When k = k', we call this function the auto-catalog density function (ACDF); when k ≠ k', we call it the cross-catalog density function (CCDF). The roles of the ACDF and CCDF in synchronicity theory are similar to those of autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions in time-series analysis. For a renewal process, the ACDF can be written in terms of convolutions of the interevent-time distribution, and many of its properties (e.g., large-t asymptote) can be derived analytically. The interesting information in the CCDF, like that in the ACDF, is concentrated near t = 0. If two catalogs are completely asynchronous, the CCDF collapses to an asymptote given by the harmonic mean of the ACDF asymptotes. Synchronicity can therefore be characterized by the variability of the CCDF about this asymptote. The brevity of instrumental catalogs makes the identification of synchronicity at large M difficult, but we will illustrate potentially interesting behaviors through the analysis of a million-year California catalog generated by the earthquake simulator, RSQSim (Deiterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010), which we sampled at a

  7. A comparison of ventilator-associated pneumonia rates determined by different scoring systems in four intensive care units in the North West of England.

    PubMed

    Wallace, F A; Alexander, P D G; Spencer, C; Naisbitt, J; Moore, J A; McGrath, B A

    2015-11-01

    Ventilator-associated pneumonia is a common healthcare-associated infection with significant mortality, morbidity and healthcare cost, and rates have been proposed as a potential quality indicator. We examined ventilator-associated pneumonia rates as determined by different diagnostic scoring systems across four adult intensive care units in the North West of England. We also collected clinical opinions as to whether patients had ventilator-associated pneumonia, and whether patients were receiving antibiotics as treatment. Pooled ventilator-associated pneumonia rates were 36.3, 22.2, 15.2 and 1.1 per 1000 ventilator-bed days depending on the scoring system used. There was significant within-unit heterogeneity for ventilator-associated pneumonia rates calculated by the various scoring systems (all p < 0.001). Clinical opinion and antibiotic use did not correlate well with the scoring systems (k = 0.23 and k = 0.17, respectively). We therefore question whether the ventilator-associated pneumonia rate as measured by existing tools is either useful or desirable as a quality indicator.

  8. Conveying the Complex: Updating U.S. Joint Systems Analysis Doctrine with Complexity Theory

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-12-10

    CONVEYING THE COMPLEX: UPDATING U.S. JOINT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS DOCTRINE WITH COMPLEXITY THEORY A Monograph by Major Eddie J...Updating U.S. Joint Systems Analysis Doctrine with Complexity Theory 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6...Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Complexity theory is an interdisciplinary set of concepts and tools that has proved useful for many

  9. A framework for implementing systems engineering development of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunson, Karl Leonard

    The Department of Defense and the aerospace industry are responsible for decades of successful implementation of systems engineering process models used for the development of complex systems. The process models implemented throughout acquisition life cycles have proven to be comprehensive and flexible, and hence are designed to reduce acquisition schedule variability and the inherent risks of life-cycle cost overruns. While implementing the appropriate process model is important, various process models do not evaluate and quantify potential technical, manufacturing, scheduling and cost risks that may impact acquisition activities throughout the acquisition life cycle of the complex system. A potential way to effectively manage these risks with the appropriate process model is through the incorporation of the Synthesized Framework , the proposed method developed in this dissertation. With the described Synthesized Framework (SF), process models and risk drivers can be analyzed using this comprehensive approach, which implements qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques through Monte Carlo simulation. The result is a repeatable, inherent, risk-driven commitment process that can stabilize and synchronize both systems engineering and acquisition processes.

  10. Melmark New England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cancro, Lorraine

    2009-01-01

    This article features Melmark New England, a private, nonprofit, community based organization dedicated to serving children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorders, acquired brain injury, neurological diseases and disorders, and severe challenging behaviors. The Melmark parent corporation, a Pennsylvania based provider of services for those…

  11. Local Music in England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ewbank, Alison

    1986-01-01

    Discusses issues regarding the choice of many young musicians in England to reject their school music education as irrelevant to, and restrictive on, the music they wish to play; presents the general process of how local production works and what its cultural roots and reference points are. Cites specific references. (JD)

  12. Melmark New England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cancro, Lorraine

    2009-01-01

    This article features Melmark New England, a private, nonprofit, community based organization dedicated to serving children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorders, acquired brain injury, neurological diseases and disorders, and severe challenging behaviors. The Melmark parent corporation, a Pennsylvania based provider of services for those…

  13. New Developments in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    Early years education in England has undergone a number of radical changes in the last decade. More recently, a change in government after the 2010 UK general election has meant that early years practitioners have experienced a period of uncertainty and change in policy in line with the ambitions and philosophy of the new Conservative/Liberal…

  14. Modeling Complex Chemical Systems: Problems and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Dijk, Jan

    2016-09-01

    Non-equilibrium plasmas in complex gas mixtures are at the heart of numerous contemporary technologies. They typically contain dozens to hundreds of species, involved in hundreds to thousands of reactions. Chemists and physicists have always been interested in what are now called chemical reduction techniques (CRT's). The idea of such CRT's is that they reduce the number of species that need to be considered explicitly without compromising the validity of the model. This is usually achieved on the basis of an analysis of the reaction time scales of the system under study, which identifies species that are in partial equilibrium after a given time span. The first such CRT that has been widely used in plasma physics was developed in the 1960's and resulted in the concept of effective ionization and recombination rates. It was later generalized to systems in which multiple levels are effected by transport. In recent years there has been a renewed interest in tools for chemical reduction and reaction pathway analysis. An example of the latter is the PumpKin tool. Another trend is that techniques that have previously been developed in other fields of science are adapted as to be able to handle the plasma state of matter. Examples are the Intrinsic Low Dimension Manifold (ILDM) method and its derivatives, which originate from combustion engineering, and the general-purpose Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique. In this contribution we will provide an overview of the most common reduction techniques, then critically assess the pros and cons of the methods that have gained most popularity in recent years. Examples will be provided for plasmas in argon and carbon dioxide.

  15. A new sentinel surveillance system for severe influenza in England shows a shift in age distribution of hospitalised cases in the post-pandemic period.

    PubMed

    Bolotin, Shelly; Pebody, Richard; White, Peter J; McMenamin, James; Perera, Luke; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S; Barlow, Thomas; Watson, John M

    2012-01-01

    The World Health Organization and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have highlighted the importance of establishing systems to monitor severe influenza. Following the H1N1 (2009) influenza pandemic, a sentinel network of 23 Trusts, the UK Severe Influenza Surveillance System (USISS), was established to monitor hospitalisations due to confirmed seasonal influenza in England. This article presents the results of the first season of operation of USISS in 2010/11. A case was defined as a person hospitalised with confirmed influenza of any type. Weekly aggregate numbers of hospitalised influenza cases, broken down by flu type and level of care, were submitted by participating Trusts. Cases in 2010/11 were compared to cases during the 2009 pandemic in hospitals with available surveillance data for both time periods (n = 19). An unexpected resurgence in seasonal A/H1N1 (2009) influenza activity in England was observed in December 2010 with reports of severe disease. Reported cases over the period of 4 October 2010 to 13 February 2011 were mostly due to influenza A/H1N1 (2009). One thousand and seventy-one cases of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) occurred over this period compared to 409 at the same Trusts over the 2009/10 pandemic period (1 April 2009 to 6 January 2010). Median age of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) cases in 2010/11 was 35 years, compared with 20 years during the pandemic (p = <0.0001). The Health Protection Agency successfully established a sentinel surveillance system for severe influenza in 2010/11, detecting a rise in influenza cases mirroring other surveillance indicators. The data indicate an upward shift in the age-distribution of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) during the 2010/11 influenza season as compared to the 2009/10 pandemic. Systems to enable the ongoing surveillance of severe influenza will be a key component in understanding and responding to the evolving epidemiology of influenza in the post-pandemic era.

  16. Complexity and Diversity of Digraphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertz, Steven H.; Pereira, Gil Z.; Zamfirescu, Christina M. D.

    There has been a great deal of ferment in `Complexity Science' in recent years, as chronicled in the proceedings of the New England Complex Systems Institute's International Conference on Complex Systems [Minai & Bar-Yam 2006, 2008] and those of the Santa Fe Institute [Nadel & Stein 1995, Cowan 1994]. We have been primarily focused on developing metrics of complexity relevant to chemistry, especially synthetic chemistry [Bertz 2003a-c]. Our approach involves abstracting a molecule or a plan for its synthesis as a graph and then using the tools of graph theory to characterize its complexity and diversity.

  17. Mathematics of Failures in Complex Systems: Characterization and Mitigation of Service Failures in Complex Dynamic Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-06-30

    equivalently , the 3nite-state machine Fig. 2 can be started from any arbitrary state corresponding to no speci3c initial condition.) While the time...University Research Initiative (MURI) Project Characterization and Mitigation of Failures in Complex Dynamical Systems Principal Investigator: Professor...Failure (CSF) Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) project has been to formulate and disseminate a knowledge base of science and

  18. Management Strategies for Complex Adaptive Systems: Sensemaking, Learning, and Improvisation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDaniel, Reuben R., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Misspecification of the nature of organizations may be a major reason for difficulty in achieving performance improvement. Organizations are often viewed as machine-like, but complexity science suggests that organizations should be viewed as complex adaptive systems. I identify the characteristics of complex adaptive systems and give examples of…

  19. Polish Complementary Schools in Iceland and England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zielinska, Malgorzata; Kowzan, Piotr; Ragnarsdóttir, Hanna

    2014-01-01

    Since 2004, the opening of labour markets has spurred a considerable number of Poles to emigrate e.g. to Iceland and England. Families with school age children have had the challenge of adapting to foreign environments and school systems. Polish complementary schools have played an important, albeit ambivalent, role in this process. Through focus…

  20. Polish Complementary Schools in Iceland and England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zielinska, Malgorzata; Kowzan, Piotr; Ragnarsdóttir, Hanna

    2014-01-01

    Since 2004, the opening of labour markets has spurred a considerable number of Poles to emigrate e.g. to Iceland and England. Families with school age children have had the challenge of adapting to foreign environments and school systems. Polish complementary schools have played an important, albeit ambivalent, role in this process. Through focus…

  1. The Current Brouhaha about Standards in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2010-01-01

    Following a report by a Parliamentary Committee, the Higher Education Funding Council for England is consulting the sector about a strengthened national quality assurance system, with an enhanced role for information about quality and a closer focus on academic standards. This article provides a critical review of the main proposals.

  2. The Current Brouhaha about Standards in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2010-01-01

    Following a report by a Parliamentary Committee, the Higher Education Funding Council for England is consulting the sector about a strengthened national quality assurance system, with an enhanced role for information about quality and a closer focus on academic standards. This article provides a critical review of the main proposals.

  3. Complex Systems Thinking and Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Complex systems approaches have received increasing attention in public health because reductionist approaches yield limited insights in the context of dynamic systems. Most discussions have been highly abstract. There is a need to consider the application of complex systems approaches to specific research questions. I review the features of population health problems for which complex systems approaches are most likely to yield new insights, and discuss possible applications of complex systems to health disparities research. I provide illustrative examples of how complex systems approaches may help address unanswered and persistent questions regarding genetic factors, life course processes, place effects, and the impact of upstream policies. The concepts and methods of complex systems may help researchers move beyond current impasse points in health disparities research. PMID:21778505

  4. Geomorphology of New England

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Denny, C.S.

    1982-01-01

    Widely scattered terrestrial deposits of Cretaceous or Tertiary age and extensive nearshore and fluvial Coastal Plain deposits now largely beneath the sea indicate that the New England region has been above sea level during and since the Late Cretaceous. Estimates of rates of erosion based on sediment load in rivers and on volume of sediments in the Coastal Plain suggest that if the New England highlands had not been uplifted in the Miocene, the area would now be largely a lowland. If the estimated rates of erosion and uplift are of the right order of magnitude, then it is extremely unlikely that any part of the present landscape dates back before Miocene time. The only exception would be lowlands eroded in the early Mesozoic, later buried beneath Mesozoic and Cenozoic deposits, and exhumed by stream and glacial erosion during the later Cenozoic. Many of the rocks in the New England highlands are similar to those that underlie the Piedmont province in the central and southern Appalachians, where the relief over large areas is much less than in the highlands of New England. These comparisons suggest that the New England highlands have been upwarped in late Cenozoic time. The uplift took place in the Miocene and may have continued into the Quaternary. The New England landscape is primarily controlled by the underlying bedrock. Erosion and deposition during the Quaternary, related in large part to glaciation, have produced only minor changes in drainage and in topography. Shale and graywacke of Ordovician, Cambrian, and Proterozoic age forming the Taconic highlands, and akalic plutonic rocks of Mesozoic age are all highland makers. Sandstone and shale of Jurassic and Triassic age, similar rocks of Carboniferous age, and dolomite, limestone, and shale of Ordovician and Cambrian age commonly underlie lowlands. High-grade metapelites are more resistant than similar schists of low metamorphic grade and form the highest mountains in New England. Feldspathic rocks tend to

  5. Multistage spectral relaxation method for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems.

    PubMed

    Saberi Nik, Hassan; Rebelo, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    We present a pseudospectral method application for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems. The proposed method, called the multistage spectral relaxation method (MSRM) is based on a technique of extending Gauss-Seidel type relaxation ideas to systems of nonlinear differential equations and using the Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to solve the resulting system on a sequence of multiple intervals. In this new application, the MSRM is used to solve famous hyperchaotic complex systems such as hyperchaotic complex Lorenz system and the complex permanent magnet synchronous motor. We compare this approach to the Runge-Kutta based ode45 solver to show that the MSRM gives accurate results.

  6. Multistage Spectral Relaxation Method for Solving the Hyperchaotic Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Saberi Nik, Hassan; Rebelo, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    We present a pseudospectral method application for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems. The proposed method, called the multistage spectral relaxation method (MSRM) is based on a technique of extending Gauss-Seidel type relaxation ideas to systems of nonlinear differential equations and using the Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to solve the resulting system on a sequence of multiple intervals. In this new application, the MSRM is used to solve famous hyperchaotic complex systems such as hyperchaotic complex Lorenz system and the complex permanent magnet synchronous motor. We compare this approach to the Runge-Kutta based ode45 solver to show that the MSRM gives accurate results. PMID:25386624

  7. Inference, simulation, modeling, and analysis of complex networks, with special emphasis on complex networks in systems biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Claire Petra

    Across diverse fields ranging from physics to biology, sociology, and economics, the technological advances of the past decade have engendered an unprecedented explosion of data on highly complex systems with thousands, if not millions of interacting components. These systems exist at many scales of size and complexity, and it is becoming ever-more apparent that they are, in fact, universal, arising in every field of study. Moreover, they share fundamental properties---chief among these, that the individual interactions of their constituent parts may be well-understood, but the characteristic behaviour produced by the confluence of these interactions---by these complex networks---is unpredictable; in a nutshell, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. There is, perhaps, no better illustration of this concept than the discoveries being made regarding complex networks in the biological sciences. In particular, though the sequencing of the human genome in 2003 was a remarkable feat, scientists understand that the "cellular-level blueprints" for the human being are cellular-level parts lists, but they say nothing (explicitly) about cellular-level processes. The challenge of modern molecular biology is to understand these processes in terms of the networks of parts---in terms of the interactions among proteins, enzymes, genes, and metabolites---as it is these processes that ultimately differentiate animate from inanimate, giving rise to life! It is the goal of systems biology---an umbrella field encapsulating everything from molecular biology to epidemiology in social systems---to understand processes in terms of fundamental networks of core biological parts, be they proteins or people. By virtue of the fact that there are literally countless complex systems, not to mention tools and techniques used to infer, simulate, analyze, and model these systems, it is impossible to give a truly comprehensive account of the history and study of complex systems. The author

  8. Tethering Complexes in the Arabidopsis Endomembrane System

    PubMed Central

    Vukašinović, Nemanja; Žárský, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    Targeting of endomembrane transport containers is of the utmost importance for proper land plant growth and development. Given the immobility of plant cells, localized membrane vesicle secretion and recycling are amongst the main processes guiding proper cell, tissue and whole plant morphogenesis. Cell wall biogenesis and modification are dependent on vectorial membrane traffic, not only during normal development, but also in stress responses and in plant defense against pathogens and/or symbiosis. It is surprising how little we know about these processes in plants, from small GTPase regulation to the tethering complexes that act as their effectors. Tethering factors are single proteins or protein complexes mediating first contact between the target membrane and arriving membrane vesicles. In this review we focus on the tethering complexes of the best-studied plant model—Arabidopsis thaliana. Genome-based predictions indicate the presence of all major tethering complexes in plants that are known from a hypothetical last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA). The evolutionary multiplication of paralogs of plant tethering complex subunits has produced the massively expanded EXO70 family, indicating a subfunctionalization of the terminal exocytosis machinery in land plants. Interpretation of loss of function (LOF) mutant phenotypes has to consider that related, yet clearly functionally-specific complexes often share some common core subunits. It is therefore impossible to conclude with clarity which version of the complex is responsible for the phenotypic deviations observed. Experimental interest in the analysis of plant tethering complexes is growing and we hope to contribute with this review by attracting even more attention to this fascinating field of plant cell biology. PMID:27243010

  9. Studies of complexity in fluid systems

    SciTech Connect

    Nagel, Sidney R.

    2000-06-12

    This is the final report of Grant DE-FG02-92ER25119, ''Studies of Complexity in Fluids'', we have investigated turbulence, flow in granular materials, singularities in evolution of fluid surfaces and selective withdrawal fluid flows. We have studied numerical methods for dealing with complex phenomena, and done simulations on the formation of river networks. We have also studied contact-line deposition that occurs in a drying drop.

  10. Cause and effect in geomorphic systems: Complex systems perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, A. Brad; Coco, Giovanni; Goldstein, Evan B.

    2014-06-01

    Applying complex systems perspectives to geomorphic systems leads to the conclusion that cause and effect in landscape systems does not always apply in the ways that common sense and traditional assumptions would suggest. Geomorphologists have long thought that events must have causes and that landscape structures exist where they do for particular reasons. In addition, since the rise of process geomorphology, geomorphologists have often assumed that small-scale processes directly cause large-scale, long-term landscape evolution; that for understanding or predicting the large-scale behaviors, the details of the small-scale processes matter; and that large-scale processes do not directly cause behaviors at much smaller scales. However, in self-organized systems, autogenic events can arise from feedbacks internal to the system, without any variation in the forcing to cause the event. Similarly, structures within self-organized patterns in the landscape can emerge spontaneously, even though there may not be any pre-existing heterogeneity to cause the localization of the structure. In addition, cause and effect can operate from large scales to small ones as well as the reverse, and interactions that emerge at larger scales can determine the characteristics of the landscape, independent of the details of the small-scale processes. To exemplify these points, we will use research on 'sorted bedforms', striking shallow seabed grain-sized sorted patterns on scales ranging from tens of meters to kilometers. The stripes of coarse sand or gravel that are segregated from intervening fine-sand domains were originally ascribed to hypothesized, spatially focused currents. However, more recent modeling and field observations point to a self-organization mechanism in which the locations of the features do not correspond with any heterogeneity in the forcing or antecedent conditions. Very recent modeling work shows that regionally the pattern can spontaneously break down and reform

  11. Understanding Equilibrium: The Study of Complex Systems. Final Project Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duckworth, Eleanor; And Others

    The Educational Technology Center (ETC) Complex Systems Project was initiated to explore ways of using computers to help students understand systems which have often proven too complex for most high school students to understand. Preliminary work concentrated on the cognitive processes involved in modeling simple systems. This paper describes an…

  12. Understanding Equilibrium: The Study of Complex Systems. Final Project Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duckworth, Eleanor; And Others

    The Educational Technology Center (ETC) Complex Systems Project was initiated to explore ways of using computers to help students understand systems which have often proven too complex for most high school students to understand. Preliminary work concentrated on the cognitive processes involved in modeling simple systems. This paper describes an…

  13. Integration of the immune system: a complex adaptive supersystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crisman, Mark V.

    2001-10-01

    Immunity to pathogenic organisms is a complex process involving interacting factors within the immune system including circulating cells, tissues and soluble chemical mediators. Both the efficiency and adaptive responses of the immune system in a dynamic, often hostile, environment are essential for maintaining our health and homeostasis. This paper will present a brief review of one of nature's most elegant, complex adaptive systems.

  14. Complex network synchronization of chaotic systems with delay coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Theesar, S. Jeeva Sathya Ratnavelu, K.

    2014-03-05

    The study of complex networks enables us to understand the collective behavior of the interconnected elements and provides vast real time applications from biology to laser dynamics. In this paper, synchronization of complex network of chaotic systems has been studied. Every identical node in the complex network is assumed to be in Lur’e system form. In particular, delayed coupling has been assumed along with identical sector bounded nonlinear systems which are interconnected over network topology.

  15. Complexity Thinking in PE: Game-Centred Approaches, Games as Complex Adaptive Systems, and Ecological Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storey, Brian; Butler, Joy

    2013-01-01

    Background: This article draws on the literature relating to game-centred approaches (GCAs), such as Teaching Games for Understanding, and dynamical systems views of motor learning to demonstrate a convergence of ideas around games as complex adaptive learning systems. This convergence is organized under the title "complexity thinking"…

  16. Complexity Thinking in PE: Game-Centred Approaches, Games as Complex Adaptive Systems, and Ecological Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storey, Brian; Butler, Joy

    2013-01-01

    Background: This article draws on the literature relating to game-centred approaches (GCAs), such as Teaching Games for Understanding, and dynamical systems views of motor learning to demonstrate a convergence of ideas around games as complex adaptive learning systems. This convergence is organized under the title "complexity thinking"…

  17. An early illustrated comparative anatomy of the brain: Samuel Collins' A Systeme of Anatomy (1685) and the emergence of comparative neurology in 17th century England.

    PubMed

    Kruger, Lawrence

    2004-09-01

    The concept of comparing of the brains of various animals and of individual human brains was launched in the last half of the 17th century in England and was much influenced by the formation of the European scientific societies and their attempts to guide naturalist observations into a new systematics. An ambitious attempt to document this trend in an extensively illustrated work of encyclopedic pretensions was the singular publication of Samuel Collins (1618-1710), an energetic anatomist and president of the Royal College of Physicians. His little known tow-volume folio presentation, written in teh vernacular for broad acceptance, contains the seeds of a science of comparative neurology with the largest collection of brain illustrations (as well as of other organ systems) attempted in his era. Although lacking the conceptual insight that might derive from a true "comparative" anatomy and an understanding of the relations of different animals, the handsome engravings exemplified the new direction of the 'enlightenment' of the scientific revolution and are discussed in teh context of relevant events of this period.

  18. 78 FR 29116 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-17

    ... Council's (Council) Vessel Monitoring System (VMS)/Enforcement will meet jointly with the Advisory Panel to consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). DATES: The...

  19. Statistical Features of Complex Systems ---Toward Establishing Sociological Physics---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Naoki; Kuninaka, Hiroto; Wakita, Jun-ichi; Matsushita, Mitsugu

    2011-07-01

    Complex systems have recently attracted much attention, both in natural sciences and in sociological sciences. Members constituting a complex system evolve through nonlinear interactions among each other. This means that in a complex system the multiplicative experience or, so to speak, the history of each member produces its present characteristics. If attention is paid to any statistical property in any complex system, the lognormal distribution is the most natural and appropriate among the standard or ``normal'' statistics to overview the whole system. In fact, the lognormality emerges rather conspicuously when we examine, as familiar and typical examples of statistical aspects in complex systems, the nursing-care period for the aged, populations of prefectures and municipalities, and our body height and weight. Many other examples are found in nature and society. On the basis of these observations, we discuss the possibility of sociological physics.

  20. Towards an evaluation framework for complex social systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDonald, Diane M.; Kay, Nigel

    While there is growing realisation that the world in which we live in is highly complex with multiple interdependencies and irreducibly open to outside influence, how to make these 'systems' more manageable is still a significant outstanding issue. As (2004) suggests, applying the theoretical principles of Complex Systems may help solve complex problems in this complex world. While Bar-Yam provides examples of forward-thinking organisations which have begun to see the relevance of complex systems principles, for many organisations the language and concepts of complexity science such as self-organisation and unpredictability while they make theoretical sense offer no practical or acceptable method of implementation to those more familiar with definitive facts and classical hierarchical, deterministic approaches to control. Complexity Science explains why designed systems or interventions may not function as anticipated in differing environments, without providing a silver bullet which enables control or engineering of the system to ensure the desired results. One familiar process which might, if implemented with complex systems in mind, provide the basis of an accessible and understandable framework that enables policy makers and practitioners to better design and manage complex socio-technical systems is that of evaluation.

  1. Towards an evaluation framework for complex social systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDonald, Diane M.; Kay, Nigel

    While there is growing realisation that the world in which we live in is highly complex with multiple interdependencies and irreducibly open to outside influence, how to make these `systems' more manageable is still a significant outstanding issue. As (2004) suggests, applying the theoretical principles of Complex Systems may help solve complex problems in this complex world. While Bar-Yam provides examples of forward-thinking organisations which have begun to see the relevance of complex systems principles, for many organisations the language and concepts of complexity science such as self-organisation and unpredictability while they make theoretical sense offer no practical or acceptable method of implementation to those more familiar with definitive facts and classical hierarchical, deterministic approaches to control. Complexity Science explains why designed systems or interventions may not function as anticipated in differing environments, without providing a silver bullet which enables control or engineering of the system to ensure the desired results. One familiar process which might, if implemented with complex systems in mind, provide the basis of an accessible and understandable framework that enables policy makers and practitioners to better design and manage complex socio-technical systems is that of evaluation.

  2. Confluence and convergence: team effectiveness in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Porter-OʼGrady, Tim

    2015-01-01

    Complex adaptive systems require nursing leadership to rethink organizational work and the viability and effectiveness of teams. Much of emergent thinking about complexity and systems and organizations alter the understanding of the nature and function of teamwork and the configuration and leadership of team effort. Reflecting on basic concepts of complexity and their application to team formation, dynamics, and outcomes lays an important foundation for effectively guiding the strategic activity of systems through the focused tactical action of teams. Basic principles of complexity, their impact on teams, and the fundamental elements of team effectiveness are explored.

  3. Control system for the FFAG complex at KURRI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanigaki, M.; Takamiya, K.; Yoshino, H.; Abe, N.; Takeshita, T.; Osanai, A.

    2010-01-01

    A simple and convenient control system has been developed for the 150 MeV proton FFAG accelerator complex at Research Reactor Institute, Kyoto University. This control system is designed as a distributed control scheme and developed with simple and versatile tools, such as PLCs, LabVIEW and an IP based network, expecting applications in small accelerators, which are often operated by non-specialists in computer programming or in control systems. The control system for the FFAG accelerator complex has actually been developed by non-specialists, and the developed control system was successfully used for commissioning the FFAG complex.

  4. It's all about flow in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Clancy, Thomas R

    2014-04-01

    As systems evolve over time, their natural tendency is to become increasingly more complex. Studies in the field of complex systems have generated new perspectives on the application of management strategies in health systems. Much of this research appears as a natural extension of the cross-disciplinary field of systems theory. In this article, I discuss the Constructal Law and its impact on nurse workflow.

  5. Complex, Dynamic Systems: A New Transdisciplinary Theme for Applied Linguistics?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane

    2012-01-01

    In this plenary address, I suggest that Complexity Theory has the potential to contribute a transdisciplinary theme to applied linguistics. Transdisciplinary themes supersede disciplines and spur new kinds of creative activity (Halliday 2001 [1990]). Investigating complex systems requires researchers to pay attention to system dynamics. Since…

  6. Designing Better Scaffolding in Teaching Complex Systems with Graphical Simulations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Na

    2013-01-01

    Complex systems are an important topic in science education today, but they are usually difficult for secondary-level students to learn. Although graphic simulations have many advantages in teaching complex systems, scaffolding is a critical factor for effective learning. This dissertation study was conducted around two complementary research…

  7. Designing Better Scaffolding in Teaching Complex Systems with Graphical Simulations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Na

    2013-01-01

    Complex systems are an important topic in science education today, but they are usually difficult for secondary-level students to learn. Although graphic simulations have many advantages in teaching complex systems, scaffolding is a critical factor for effective learning. This dissertation study was conducted around two complementary research…

  8. Complex, Dynamic Systems: A New Transdisciplinary Theme for Applied Linguistics?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane

    2012-01-01

    In this plenary address, I suggest that Complexity Theory has the potential to contribute a transdisciplinary theme to applied linguistics. Transdisciplinary themes supersede disciplines and spur new kinds of creative activity (Halliday 2001 [1990]). Investigating complex systems requires researchers to pay attention to system dynamics. Since…

  9. Complex Systems: Science for the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect

    Shank, Charles V.; Awschalom, David; Bawendi, Moungi; Frechet, Jean; Murphy, Donald; Stupp, Sam; Wolynes, Peter

    1999-03-06

    The workshop was designed to help define new scientific directions related to complex systems in order to create new understanding about the nano world and complicated, multicomponent structures. Five emerging themes regarding complexity were covered: Collective Phenomena; Materials by Design; Functional Systems; Nature's Mastery; and New Tools.

  10. Acquisition of Complex Systemic Thinking: Mental Models of Evolution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    d'Apollonia, Sylvia T.; Charles, Elizabeth S.; Boyd, Gary M.

    2004-01-01

    We investigated the impact of introducing college students to complex adaptive systems on their subsequent mental models of evolution compared to those of students taught in the same manner but with no reference to complex systems. The students' mental models (derived from similarity ratings of 12 evolutionary terms using the pathfinder algorithm)…

  11. Acquisition of Complex Systemic Thinking: Mental Models of Evolution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    d'Apollonia, Sylvia T.; Charles, Elizabeth S.; Boyd, Gary M.

    2004-01-01

    We investigated the impact of introducing college students to complex adaptive systems on their subsequent mental models of evolution compared to those of students taught in the same manner but with no reference to complex systems. The students' mental models (derived from similarity ratings of 12 evolutionary terms using the pathfinder algorithm)…

  12. Application of Complex Adaptive Systems in Portfolio Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Su, Zheyuan

    2017-01-01

    Simulation-based methods are becoming a promising research tool in financial markets. A general Complex Adaptive System can be tailored to different application scenarios. Based on the current research, we built two models that would benefit portfolio management by utilizing Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) in Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach.…

  13. Size and complexity in model financial systems.

    PubMed

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M

    2012-11-06

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in "confidence" in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases.

  14. Size and complexity in model financial systems

    PubMed Central

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in “confidence” in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  15. Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

    2015-04-01

    The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

  16. Dispersion Modeling in Complex Urban Systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Models are used to represent real systems in an understandable way. They take many forms. A conceptual model explains the way a system works. In environmental studies, for example, a conceptual model may delineate all the factors and parameters for determining how a particle move...

  17. Evaluation in the Design of Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ho, Li-An; Schwen, Thomas M.

    2006-01-01

    We identify literature that argues the process of creating knowledge-based system is often imbalanced. In most knowledge-based systems, development is often technology-driven instead of requirement-driven. Therefore, we argue designers must recognize that evaluation is a critical link in the application of requirement-driven development models…

  18. Complexity analyses of multi-wing chaotic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Shao-Bo; Sun, Ke-Hui; Zhu, Cong-Xu

    2013-05-01

    The complexities of multi-wing chaotic systems based on the modified Chen system and a multi-segment quadratic function are investigated by employing the statistical complexity measure (SCM) and the spectral entropy (SE) algorithm. How to choose the parameters of the SCM and SE algorithms is discussed. The results show that the complexity of the multi-wing chaotic system does not increase as the number of wings increases, and it is consistent with the results of the Grassberger—Procaccia (GP) algorithm and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of the multi-wing chaotic system.

  19. Circulating immune complexes in systemic scleroderma and generalized morphea.

    PubMed

    O'Loughlin, S; Tappeiner, G; Jordon, R E

    1980-01-01

    There is growing evidence that pathologic changes in the vascular system are implicated in the pathogenesis of systemic scleroderma. It has been suggested that immune complex deposition may be responsible for such changes. We measured circulating immune complexes in 10 patients with severe systemic scleroderma, 1 of whom had clinical evidence of renal disease, and in 3 patients with generalized morphea. None of the patients had significantly elevated levels. Our findings suggest that although circulating immune complexes are of diagnostic and prognostic value in other collagen vascular diseases, they do not play a major role in the pathogenesis of systemic scleroderma in patients who lack clinical evidence of renal disease.

  20. CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT: European Conference on Complex Systems 2009 European Conference on Complex Systems 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2009-05-01

    The 2009 European Conference on Complex Systems will take place 21-25 September 2009 at the University of Warwick in the UK. Local Organising Committee Markus Kirkilionis (Warwick, Chair), Francois Kepes (Genopole, Programme Chair), Robert MacKay (Warwick), Robin Ball (Warwick), Jeff Johnson (Open University). International Steering Committee Markus Kirkilionis (Warwick; Chair 2008-10), Fatihcan Atay (Leipzig), Jürgen Jost (Leipzig), Scott Kirkpatrick (Jerusalem), David Lane (University of Modena and Reggio Emillia), Andreas Lorincz (Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Denise Pumain (Sorbonne), Felix Reed-Tsochas (Oxford), Eörs Szathmáry (Collegium Budapest, Hungary), Stephan Thurner (Wien), Paul Verschure (Barcelona), Alessandro Vespignani (Indiana, ISI), Riccardo Zecchina (Torino). Main tracks and Organisers Policy, Planning & Infrastructure: Jeff Johnson (Open University, Chair), Arnaud Banos (Strasbourg) Collective Human Behaviour and Society: Felix Reed-Tsochas (Oxford, Chair), Frances Griffiths (Warwick), Edmund Chattoe-Brown (Leicester) Interacting Populations and Environment: TBA Complexity and Computer Science: András Lörincz (Eötvös Loránd University), Paul Verschure (Zürich) From Molecules to Living Systems: Mark Chaplain (Dundee, Chair), Wolfgang Marwan (Magdeburg) Mathematics and Simulation: Holger Kantz (Dresden, Chair), Fatihcan Atay (Leipzig), Matteo Marsili (Trieste). Deadlines Paper submission: 31 March 2009 with decisions 15 May 2009. Paper submission deadline likely to be extended. See http://www.eccs09.info for more information. Meeting registration: early registration July 2009; last assured chance 1 Sept. Further information For contacts and the most up-to-date information visit http://www.eccs09.info.

  1. Lower New England, USA

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1973-06-22

    SL2-103-967 (22 June 1973) --- This view of lower New England, (41.5N, 72.0W) shows a rare cloud-free area stretching from northern Long Island across the states of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. The total area covered by this photo is more than 25,000 square miles and includes all of Rhode Island, most of Massachusetts and Connecticut, part of New York and the coastal waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Cape Cod, Boston and the offshore islands are distinctive features. Photo credit: NASA

  2. Earthquakes in New England

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fratto, E. S.; Ebel, J.E.; Kadinsky-Cade, K.

    1990-01-01

    New England has a long history of earthquakes. Some of the first explorers were startled when they experienced strong shaking and rumbling of the earth below their feet. they soon learned from the Indians that this was not an uncommon occurrence in the New World. the Plymouth Pilgrims felt their first earthquake in 1638. that first shock rattled dishes, doors, and buildings. The shaking so frightened those working in the fields that they threw down their tools and ran panic-stricken through the countryside. 

  3. Teaching about Complex Systems Is No Simple Matter: Building Effective Professional Development for Computer-Supported Complex Systems Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoon, Susan A.; Anderson, Emma; Koehler-Yom, Jessica; Evans, Chad; Park, Miyoung; Sheldon, Josh; Schoenfeld, Ilana; Wendel, Daniel; Scheintaub, Hal; Klopfer, Eric

    2017-01-01

    The recent next generation science standards in the United States have emphasized learning about complex systems as a core feature of science learning. Over the past 15 years, a number of educational tools and theories have been investigated to help students learn about complex systems; but surprisingly, little research has been devoted to…

  4. Forewarning of Failure in Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Hively, Lee M; Prowell, Stacy J; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2011-01-01

    As the critical infrastructures of the United States have become more and more dependent on public and private networks, the potential for widespread national impact resulting from disruption or failure of these networks has also increased. Securing the nation s critical infrastructures requires protecting not only their physical systems but, just as important, the cyber portions of the systems on which they rely. A failure is inclusive of random events, design flaws, and instabilities caused by cyber (and/or physical) attack. One such domain is failure in critical equipment. A second is aging bridges. We discuss the workings of such a system in the context of the necessary sensors, command and control and data collection as well as the cyber security efforts that would support this system. Their application and the implications of this computing architecture are also discussed, with respect to our nation s aging infrastructure.

  5. Complex Dynamical Behavior in Hybrid Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-29

    Teel, ``Analytical and numerical Lyapunov functions for SISO linear control systems with first-order reset elements”, International Journal of...2010. J15. T. Hu, T. Thibodeau, A.R. Teel, ``A Unified Lyapunov Approach to Analysis of Oscillations and Stability for Systems With Piecewise...Teel, `` Lyapunov Functions, Stability and Input-to-State Stability Subtleties for Discrete-Time Discontinuous Systems’’, IEEE Transactions on

  6. Software Analyzes Complex Systems in Real Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    Expert system software programs, also known as knowledge-based systems, are computer programs that emulate the knowledge and analytical skills of one or more human experts, related to a specific subject. SHINE (Spacecraft Health Inference Engine) is one such program, a software inference engine (expert system) designed by NASA for the purpose of monitoring, analyzing, and diagnosing both real-time and non-real-time systems. It was developed to meet many of the Agency s demanding and rigorous artificial intelligence goals for current and future needs. NASA developed the sophisticated and reusable software based on the experience and requirements of its Jet Propulsion Laboratory s (JPL) Artificial Intelligence Research Group in developing expert systems for space flight operations specifically, the diagnosis of spacecraft health. It was designed to be efficient enough to operate in demanding real time and in limited hardware environments, and to be utilized by non-expert systems applications written in conventional programming languages. The technology is currently used in several ongoing NASA applications, including the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Spacecraft Health Automatic Reasoning Pilot (SHARP) program for the diagnosis of telecommunication anomalies during the Neptune Voyager Encounter. It is also finding applications outside of the Space Agency.

  7. Dynamical process of complex systems and fractional differential equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hara, Hiroaki; Tamura, Yoshiyasu

    2013-10-01

    Behavior of dynamical process of complex systems is investigated. Specifically we analyse two types of ideal complex systems. For analysing the ideal complex systems, we define the response functions describing the internal states to an external force. The internal states are obtained as a relaxation process showing a "power law" distribution, such as scale free behaviors observed in actual measurements. By introducing a hybrid system, the logarithmic time, and double logarithmic time, we show how the "slow relaxation" (SR) process and "super slow relaxation" (SSR) process occur. Regarding the irregular variations of the internal states as an activation process, we calculate the response function to the external force. The behaviors are classified into "power", "exponential", and "stretched exponential" type. Finally we construct a fractional differential equation (FDE) describing the time evolution of these complex systems. In our theory, the exponent of the FDE or that of the power law distribution is expressed in terms of the parameters characterizing the structure of the system.

  8. The Grammar and Statistical Mechanics of Complex Physical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, Karl Allen

    Constructive and computationally tractable techniques are developed for the classification of complex dynamical systems. These techniques subsume and extend standard dynamical characterizations based on Renyi dimensions and entropy spectra, invariant measures, algorithmic complexities and other dynamical and statistical measures. A natural way of quantifying the complexity of spatio-temporal data sets, and hence the combination of underlying physical system and measuring apparatus, is presented. These methods uniquely associate a data set with a formal language, given a specified model basis. The position of this language in a hierarchy of formal languages provides a measure of the complexity of the data set. This in turn provides a quantitative measure of the experimental or computational resources necessary for the complete characterization of a given system. Examples of data sets produced by various systems and models are analyzed using these techniques. It is shown that these techniques are particularly effective in detecting structure and elucidating underlying mechanisms for complex physical phenomena.

  9. We are bitter, but we are better off: case study of the implementation of an electronic health record system into a mental health hospital in England

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In contrast to the acute hospital sector, there have been relatively few implementations of integrated electronic health record (EHR) systems into specialist mental health settings. The National Programme for Information Technology (NPfIT) in England was the most expensive IT-based transformation of public services ever undertaken, which aimed amongst other things, to implement integrated EHR systems into mental health hospitals. This paper describes the arrival, the process of implementation, stakeholders’ experiences and the local consequences of the implementation of an EHR system into a mental health hospital. Methods Longitudinal, real-time, case study-based evaluation of the implementation and adoption of an EHR software (RiO) into an English mental health hospital known here as Beta. We conducted 48 in-depth interviews with a wide range of internal and external stakeholders, undertook 26 hours of on-site observations, and obtained 65 sets of relevant documents from various types relating to Beta. Analysis was both inductive and deductive, the latter being informed by the ‘sociotechnical changing’ theoretical framework. Results Many interviewees perceived the implementation of the EHR system as challenging and cumbersome. During the early stages of the implementation, some clinicians felt that using the software was time-consuming leading to the conclusion that the EHR was not fit for purpose. Most interviewees considered the chain of deployment of the EHR–which was imposed by NPfIT–as bureaucratic and obstructive, which restricted customization and as a result limited adoption and use. The low IT literacy among users at Beta was a further barrier to the implementation of the EHR. This along with inadequate training in using the EHR software led to resistance to the significant cultural and work environment changes initiated by EHR. Despite the many challenges, Beta achieved some early positive results. These included: the ability to

  10. We are bitter, but we are better off: case study of the implementation of an electronic health record system into a mental health hospital in England.

    PubMed

    Takian, Amirhossein; Sheikh, Aziz; Barber, Nicholas

    2012-12-31

    In contrast to the acute hospital sector, there have been relatively few implementations of integrated electronic health record (EHR) systems into specialist mental health settings. The National Programme for Information Technology (NPfIT) in England was the most expensive IT-based transformation of public services ever undertaken, which aimed amongst other things, to implement integrated EHR systems into mental health hospitals. This paper describes the arrival, the process of implementation, stakeholders' experiences and the local consequences of the implementation of an EHR system into a mental health hospital. Longitudinal, real-time, case study-based evaluation of the implementation and adoption of an EHR software (RiO) into an English mental health hospital known here as Beta. We conducted 48 in-depth interviews with a wide range of internal and external stakeholders, undertook 26 hours of on-site observations, and obtained 65 sets of relevant documents from various types relating to Beta. Analysis was both inductive and deductive, the latter being informed by the 'sociotechnical changing' theoretical framework. Many interviewees perceived the implementation of the EHR system as challenging and cumbersome. During the early stages of the implementation, some clinicians felt that using the software was time-consuming leading to the conclusion that the EHR was not fit for purpose. Most interviewees considered the chain of deployment of the EHR-which was imposed by NPfIT-as bureaucratic and obstructive, which restricted customization and as a result limited adoption and use. The low IT literacy among users at Beta was a further barrier to the implementation of the EHR. This along with inadequate training in using the EHR software led to resistance to the significant cultural and work environment changes initiated by EHR. Despite the many challenges, Beta achieved some early positive results. These included: the ability to check progress notes and monitor staff

  11. Concentrations of hormones, pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants in groundwater affected by septic systems in New England and New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phillips, Patrick J.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Argue, Denise M.; Fisher, Irene J.; Furlong, Edward T.; Foreman, William T.; Gray, James L.; Chalmers, Ann T.

    2015-01-01

    The highest micropollutant concentrations for the NY network were present in the shoreline wells and reflect groundwater that is most affected by septic system discharges. One of the shoreline wells had personal care/domestic use, pharmaceutical, and plasticizer concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 5.7 μg/L. Estradiol equivalency quotient concentrations were also highest in a shoreline well sample (3.1 ng/L). Most micropollutant concentrations increase with increasing specific conductance and total nitrogen concentrations for shoreline well samples. These findings suggest that septic systems serving institutional settings and densely populated areas in coastal settings may be locally important sources of micropollutants to adjacent aquifer and marine systems.

  12. Active Control of Complex Physical Systems: An Overview

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-09-01

    release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (Maxtmum 200 words) Active control of complex systems imposes unique requirements for physical models and...months after the meeting, SPrinte In USA. Acceslon For NTIS CRA&W DTIC TAB Unlannounced ] Active Control of Complex Physical Systems Justificatton An...control strategies. Physical models This work on the active control of which are adequate to predict the influence of specific physical systems has been

  13. Decision-making in healthcare as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Kuziemsky, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS.

  14. Multiscale Computational Models of Complex Biological Systems

    PubMed Central

    Walpole, Joseph; Papin, Jason A.; Peirce, Shayn M.

    2014-01-01

    Integration of data across spatial, temporal, and functional scales is a primary focus of biomedical engineering efforts. The advent of powerful computing platforms, coupled with quantitative data from high-throughput experimental platforms, has allowed multiscale modeling to expand as a means to more comprehensively investigate biological phenomena in experimentally relevant ways. This review aims to highlight recently published multiscale models of biological systems while using their successes to propose the best practices for future model development. We demonstrate that coupling continuous and discrete systems best captures biological information across spatial scales by selecting modeling techniques that are suited to the task. Further, we suggest how to best leverage these multiscale models to gain insight into biological systems using quantitative, biomedical engineering methods to analyze data in non-intuitive ways. These topics are discussed with a focus on the future of the field, the current challenges encountered, and opportunities yet to be realized. PMID:23642247

  15. Systems thinking and complexity: considerations for health promoting schools.

    PubMed

    Rosas, Scott R

    2017-04-01

    The health promoting schools concept reflects a comprehensive and integrated philosophy to improving student and personnel health and well-being. Conceptualized as a configuration of interacting, interdependent parts connected through a web of relationships that form a whole greater than the sum of its parts, school health promotion initiatives often target several levels (e.g. individual, professional, procedural and policy) simultaneously. Health promoting initiatives, such as those operationalized under the whole school approach, include several interconnected components that are coordinated to improve health outcomes in complex settings. These complex systems interventions are embedded in intricate arrangements of physical, biological, ecological, social, political and organizational relationships. Systems thinking and characteristics of complex adaptive systems are introduced in this article to provide a perspective that emphasizes the patterns of inter-relationships associated with the nonlinear, dynamic and adaptive nature of complex hierarchical systems. Four systems thinking areas: knowledge, networks, models and organizing are explored as a means to further manage the complex nature of the development and sustainability of health promoting schools. Applying systems thinking and insights about complex adaptive systems can illuminate how to address challenges found in settings with both complicated (i.e. multi-level and multisite) and complex aspects (i.e. synergistic processes and emergent outcomes). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Tailoring Enterprise Systems Engineering Policy for Project Scale and Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, Renee I.; Thomas, L. Dale

    2014-01-01

    Space systems are characterized by varying degrees of scale and complexity. Accordingly, cost-effective implementation of systems engineering also varies depending on scale and complexity. Recognizing that systems engineering and integration happen everywhere and at all levels of a given system and that the life cycle is an integrated process necessary to mature a design, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration's (NASA's) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a suite of customized implementation approaches based on project scale and complexity. While it may be argued that a top-level system engineering process is common to and indeed desirable across an enterprise for all space systems, implementation of that top-level process and the associated products developed as a result differ from system to system. The implementation approaches used for developing a scientific instrument necessarily differ from those used for a space station. .

  17. A novel performance monitoring framework for health research systems: experiences of the National Institute for Health Research in England

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) was established in 2006 with the aim of creating an applied health research system embedded within the English National Health Service (NHS). NIHR sought to implement an approach for monitoring its performance that effectively linked early indicators of performance with longer-term research impacts. We attempted to develop and apply a conceptual framework for defining appropriate key performance indicators for NIHR. Method Following a review of relevant literature, a conceptual framework for defining performance indicators for NIHR was developed, based on a hybridisation of the logic model and balanced scorecard approaches. This framework was validated through interviews with key NIHR stakeholders and a pilot in one division of NIHR, before being refined and applied more widely. Indicators were then selected and aggregated to create a basket of indicators aligned to NIHR's strategic goals, which could be reported to NIHR's leadership team on a quarterly basis via an oversight dashboard. Results Senior health research system managers and practitioners endorsed the conceptual framework developed and reported satisfaction with the breadth and balance of indicators selected for reporting. Conclusions The use of the hybrid conceptual framework provides a pragmatic approach to defining performance indicators that are aligned to the strategic aims of a health research system. The particular strength of this framework is its capacity to provide an empirical link, over time, between upstream activities of a health research system and its long-term strategic objectives. PMID:21435265

  18. A review of medication incidents reported to the National Reporting and Learning System in England and Wales over 6 years (2005–2010)

    PubMed Central

    Cousins, David H; Gerrett, David; Warner, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    A review of all medication incidents reported to the National Reporting and Learning System (NRLS) in England in Wales between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2010 was undertaken. The 526 186 medication incident reports represented 9.68% of all patient safety incidents. Medication incidents from acute general hospitals (394 951) represented 75% of reports. There were relatively smaller numbers of medication incident reports (44 952) from primary care, representing 8.5% of the total. Of 86 821 (16%) medication incidents reporting actual patient harm, 822 (0.9%) resulted in death or severe harm. The incidents involving medicine administration (263 228; 50%) and prescribing (97 097; 18%) were the process steps with the largest number of reports. Omitted and delayed medicine (82 028; 16%) and wrong dose (80 170; 15%) represented the largest error categories. Thirteen medicines or therapeutic groups accounted for 377 (46%) of the incidents with outcomes of death or severe harm. The National Patient Safety Agency (NPSA) has issued guidance to help minimize incidents with many of these medicines. Many recent incidents could have been prevented if the NPSA guidance had been better implemented. It is recommended that healthcare organizations in all sectors establish an effective infrastructure to oversee and promote safe medication practice, including an annual medication safety report. In the future, preventable harms from medication incidents can be further minimized by; the continued use of the NRLS to identify and prioritize important actions to improve medication safety, a central organization continuing to issue medication safety guidance to the service and better methods to ensure that the National Health Service has implemented this guidance. PMID:22188210

  19. Responses of a deltaic system to minor relative sea level variations (Middle Jurassic, Cleveland basin, England): Consequences on the reservoir geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Eschard, R.; Ravenne, C. )

    1990-05-01

    In the Middle Jurassic series of the Cleveland basin (England), an accurate three-dimensional reconstruction of depositional sequences from outcrops, cores, and wireline logs show that minor sea level variations control the evolution of a deltaic system. Because of low subsidence and sediment supply rates, rapid sea level rises induce several landward shifts of the shoreline, whereas minor sea level drops produce the incision of small paleovalleys. The deltaic series, 200 m thick at the basin depocenter, are subdivided into five depositional sequences. During the first two sequences, the sediment supply rate exceeds the relative sea level rate and the delta progrades. The delta aggrades during the third depositional sequence and retrogrades in the fourth depositional sequence when the relative sea level rise rate balances then exceeds the sediment supply rate. Finally, a relative sea level drop induces the incision of a paleovalley progressively infilled during the following sea level rise. Several orders of bathymetric cycles are deduced from detailed correlations of the unconformities and from the comparison of the vertical facies succession between low and high subsiding areas. The general evolution of the delta is related to a 5-m.y. bathymetric cycle due to a eustatic sea level rise and fall. Pne to 3-m.y. bathymetric cycles control the main aggradation patterns of the delta. These patterns are related to third-order eustatic cycles or to local tectonic events. Less than 0.5 m.y. bathymetric cycles are registrated by parasequences or minor depositional sequences which are correlated all over the basin. The controlling parameters of the sequences are discussed. Minor bathymetric cycles (0.2 m.y.) reflect small-scale sea level oscillations or autocyclic evolution of the sedimentary bodies. The authors focus on the reservoir geometry within each bathymetric cycle.

  20. A review of medication incidents reported to the National Reporting and Learning System in England and Wales over 6 years (2005-2010).

    PubMed

    Cousins, David H; Gerrett, David; Warner, Bruce

    2012-10-01

    A review of all medication incidents reported to the National Reporting and Learning System (NRLS) in England in Wales between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2010 was undertaken. The 526,186 medication incident reports represented 9.68% of all patient safety incidents. Medication incidents from acute general hospitals (394,951) represented 75% of reports. There were relatively smaller numbers of medication incident reports (44,952) from primary care, representing 8.5% of the total. Of 86,821 (16%) medication incidents reporting actual patient harm, 822 (0.9%) resulted in death or severe harm. The incidents involving medicine administration (263,228; 50%) and prescribing (97,097; 18%) were the process steps with the largest number of reports. Omitted and delayed medicine (82,028; 16%) and wrong dose (80,170; 15%) represented the largest error categories. Thirteen medicines or therapeutic groups accounted for 377 (46%) of the incidents with outcomes of death or severe harm. The National Patient Safety Agency (NPSA) has issued guidance to help minimize incidents with many of these medicines. Many recent incidents could have been prevented if the NPSA guidance had been better implemented. It is recommended that healthcare organizations in all sectors establish an effective infrastructure to oversee and promote safe medication practice, including an annual medication safety report. In the future, preventable harms from medication incidents can be further minimized by; the continued use of the NRLS to identify and prioritize important actions to improve medication safety, a central organization continuing to issue medication safety guidance to the service and better methods to ensure that the National Health Service has implemented this guidance. © 2011 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2011 The British Pharmacological Society.

  1. Incidence and survival of children and young people with central nervous system embryonal tumours in the North of England, 1990-2013.

    PubMed

    Fairley, L; Picton, S V; McNally, R J Q; Bailey, S; McCabe, M G; Feltbower, R G

    2016-07-01

    Medulloblastoma and primitive neuroectodermal tumours (PNET) are the most common central nervous system (CNS) embryonal tumours diagnosed in childhood. Survival outcomes are worse for children diagnosed with CNS PNET compared to medulloblastoma. Less is known about survival outcomes in teenagers and young adults (TYA). Data were extracted from two population-based cancer registries of children and young people (0-24 years) in the north of England for all diagnoses of medulloblastoma and CNS PNET between 1990 and 2013. Incidence and survival trends were analysed using Poisson and Cox regression. Between 1990 and 2013, 197 medulloblastomas and 58 CNS PNET were diagnosed, age-standardised incidence rates of 3.8 and 1.5 per million, respectively. Medulloblastoma incidence decreased over time while there was no significant change in trend for CNS PNET. The overall 5-year survival rate was 54%. The risk of death was 2.4 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6, 3.7) for patients with CNS PNET compared to medulloblastoma, after adjustment for patient characteristics. There was a 39% reduction (95% CI 0.43, 0.87) in the risk of death for patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2013 compared to 1990-1999. Risk of death did not differ for TYA (15-24 years) compared to children aged 5-9 years. Medulloblastoma incidence decreased over time and differences in survival between medulloblastoma and PNET emerged within the first-year post diagnosis leading to poorer outcomes for children and young adults diagnosed with PNET; however, a significant improvement in survival over time was observed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

  3. Ice Storage System for School Complex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Ross D.

    1998-01-01

    Describes a project at the Manatee Education Center in Naples, Florida, which won an ASHRAE award. Project involved the implementation of ice-storage technology in 19 schools. Compares the performance of ice-storage systems with traditional chiller designs in two other schools. Tables illustrate costs for the campuses. Addresses the maintenance…

  4. Usability Engineering for Complex Interactive Systems Development

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-06-01

    called Nomad ( Microvision , 2003), for dismounted soldiers. In this paper, we present a brief description of key usability engineering activities...Nomad augmented vision system manufactured by Microvision ( Microvision , 2003). This display uses a low-powered laser beam to paint an image...Resolving Multiple Occluded Layers in Augmented Reality,” Submitted to ISMAR Conference. 2003. Microvision , Company website, see http

  5. Ice Storage System for School Complex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Ross D.

    1998-01-01

    Describes a project at the Manatee Education Center in Naples, Florida, which won an ASHRAE award. Project involved the implementation of ice-storage technology in 19 schools. Compares the performance of ice-storage systems with traditional chiller designs in two other schools. Tables illustrate costs for the campuses. Addresses the maintenance…

  6. Computer Systems for Teaching Complex Concepts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feurzeig, Wallace

    Four Programing systems--Mentor, Stringcomp, Simon, and Logo--were designed and implemented as integral parts of research into the various ways computers may be used for teaching problem-solving concepts and skills. Various instructional contexts, among them medicine, mathematics, physics, and basic problem-solving for elementary school children,…

  7. Creativity: Creativity in complex military systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-05-25

    36 Plucker and Beghetto., 156. 37 Csikszentmihalyi, Creativity, 42. 38 Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions...Ikujiro Nonaka. Enabling Knowledge Creation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000. Kuhn, Thomas. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. 3rd. Chicago...understanding of the system that yield military creativity would enable commanders and staffs to structure their operations process to fully exploit

  8. The Fallacy of Univariate Solutions to Complex Systems Problems

    PubMed Central

    Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N.; Rubin, Joshua B.; Schlaggar, Bradley L.

    2016-01-01

    Complex biological systems, by definition, are composed of multiple components that interact non-linearly. The human brain constitutes, arguably, the most complex biological system known. Yet most investigation of the brain and its function is carried out using assumptions appropriate for simple systems—univariate design and linear statistical approaches. This heuristic must change before we can hope to discover and test interventions to improve the lives of individuals with complex disorders of brain development and function. Indeed, a movement away from simplistic models of biological systems will benefit essentially all domains of biology and medicine. The present brief essay lays the foundation for this argument. PMID:27375425

  9. Developing resilience to England's future droughts: time for cap and trade?

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Gordon; McDonald, Adrian

    2015-02-01

    Much of England is seriously water stressed and future droughts will present major challenges to the water industry if socially and economically damaging supply restrictions are to be avoided. Demand management is seen as a key mechanism for alleviating water stress, yet there are no truly effective incentives to encourage widespread adoption of the behavioural and technological demand management practices available. Water pricing could promote conservation, but on its own it is an inefficient tool for dealing with short term restriction in water supply. Raising prices over the short term in response to a drought is likely to be ineffectual in lowering demand sufficiently; conversely, maintaining high prices over the long term implies costs to the consumer which are needlessly high most of the time. We propose a system for developing resilience to drought in highly water stressed areas, based on a cap and trade (C&T) model. The system would represent a significant innovation in England's water market. However, international experience shows that C&T is successful in other sectors, and need not be overly complex. Here, we open the debate on how a C&T system might work in England. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Wastewater and Hazardous Waste Survey, England AFB Louisiana.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-01-01

    Background 1 A. Wastewater System 2 B. England AFB Wastewater Discharge Limitations 2 C. Characteristic Hazardous Waste Regulations 3 1II. Procedures 4 A...Conservation and Recovery Act, or the Louisiana State Hazardous Waste Regulations . The wastewater survey was conducted by 1 Lt Robert A. Tetla, 2Lt Charles W...34Hazardous Waste Abatement Plan, England Air Force Base, Louisiana," 1987. 0 12. State of Louisiana Hazardous Waste Regulations 13. RCRA Interim

  11. From simplicity to complex systems with bioinspired pseudopeptides.

    PubMed

    Alfonso, Ignacio

    2016-01-07

    Pseudopeptidic compounds are chemical species with attractive applications in many fields of chemistry. The increasing complexity in pseudopeptidic molecules has allowed improvements of their properties, very often after an initial bio-inspiration. Two main types of complexity can be proposed: structural and interactional. These operational processes have recently been used for the generation of new elaborated pseudopetidic molecules and complex molecular systems. This feature article presents a brief discussion of the recent advances done following this rational and with these privileged molecules.

  12. Revisiting the Complexity of Stability of Continuous and Hybrid Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-16

    hybrid systems. We are able to prove results of the following type: • Bounded Lyapunov δ -stability resides in the complexity class (ΠP3 )C, where C is...stability resides in the complexity class (ΣP4 )C. • Unbounded Lyapunov δ -stability is undecidable, whose degree of undecidability is Π01. Un- bounded...asymptotic δ -stability is undecidable, whose degree of undecidability is in Σ02. 1 • Lyapunov methods reduce problems into lower complexity classes such

  13. Vulnerability Analysis of High Dimensional Complex Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-30

    tested the methods with Internet2 network data. From a variety of microdynamic network data, we extracted a dynamic measure of the Internet2 network’s...Systems Institute April 30, 2010 Figure 2: Backbone hubs on the Internet2 network and traffic flow links between them. 2 Internet2 Transitions from...case for studying the dynamical properties of the Internet is the Internet2 network, backbone hubs of which are depicted in Figure 2. Internet2 is a

  14. Program Helps Decompose Complex Design Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rogers, James L., Jr.; Hall, Laura E.

    1994-01-01

    DeMAID (A Design Manager's Aid for Intelligent Decomposition) computer program is knowledge-based software system for ordering sequence of modules and identifying possible multilevel structure for design problem. Groups modular subsystems on basis of interactions among them. Saves considerable money and time in total design process, particularly in new design problem in which order of modules has not been defined. Available in two machine versions: Macintosh and Sun.

  15. Integrated Modeling of Complex Optomechanical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, Torben; Enmark, Anita

    2011-09-01

    Mathematical modeling and performance simulation are playing an increasing role in large, high-technology projects. There are two reasons; first, projects are now larger than they were before, and the high cost calls for detailed performance prediction before construction. Second, in particular for space-related designs, it is often difficult to test systems under realistic conditions beforehand, and mathematical modeling is then needed to verify in advance that a system will work as planned. Computers have become much more powerful, permitting calculations that were not possible before. At the same time mathematical tools have been further developed and found acceptance in the community. Particular progress has been made in the fields of structural mechanics, optics and control engineering, where new methods have gained importance over the last few decades. Also, methods for combining optical, structural and control system models into global models have found widespread use. Such combined models are usually called integrated models and were the subject of this symposium. The objective was to bring together people working in the fields of groundbased optical telescopes, ground-based radio telescopes, and space telescopes. We succeeded in doing so and had 39 interesting presentations and many fruitful discussions during coffee and lunch breaks and social arrangements. We are grateful that so many top ranked specialists found their way to Kiruna and we believe that these proceedings will prove valuable during much future work.

  16. Critical care nursing: Embedded complex systems.

    PubMed

    Trinier, Ruth; Liske, Lori; Nenadovic, Vera

    2016-01-01

    Variability in parameters such as heart rate, respiratory rate and blood pressure defines healthy physiology and the ability of the person to adequately respond to stressors. Critically ill patients have lost this variability and require highly specialized nursing care to support life and monitor changes in condition. The critical care environment is a dynamic system through which information flows. The critical care unit is typically designed as a tree structure with generally one attending physician and multiple nurses and allied health care professionals. Information flow through the system allows for identification of deteriorating patient status and timely interventionfor rescue from further deleterious effects. Nurses provide the majority of direct patient care in the critical care setting in 2:1, 1:1 or 1:2 nurse-to-patient ratios. The bedside nurse-critically ill patient relationship represents the primary, real-time feedback loop of information exchange, monitoring and treatment. Variables that enhance information flow through this loop and support timely nursing intervention can improve patient outcomes, while barriers can lead to errors and adverse events. Examining patient information flow in the critical care environment from a dynamic systems perspective provides insights into how nurses deliver effective patient care and prevent adverse events.

  17. Molecular species identification, host preference and detection of myxoma virus in the Anopheles maculipennis complex (Diptera: Culicidae) in southern England, UK.

    PubMed

    Brugman, Victor A; Hernández-Triana, Luis M; Prosser, Sean W J; Weland, Chris; Westcott, David G; Fooks, Anthony R; Johnson, Nicholas

    2015-08-15

    Determining the host feeding patterns of mosquitoes by identifying the origin of their blood-meals is an important part of understanding the role of vector species in current and future disease transmission cycles. Collecting large numbers of blood-fed mosquitoes from the field is difficult, therefore it is important to maximise the information obtained from each specimen. This study aimed to use mosquito genome sequence to identify the species within Anopheles maculipennis sensu lato (An. maculipennis s.l.), identify the vertebrate hosts of field-caught blood-fed An. maculipennis s.l. , and to test for the presence of myxoma virus (Poxviridae, genus Leporipoxvirus) in specimens found to have fed on the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). Blood-fed An. maculipennis s.l. were collected from resting sites at Elmley Nature Reserve, Kent, between June and September 2013. Hosts that An. maculipennis s.l. had fed on were determined by a PCR-sequencing approach based on the partial amplification of the mitochondrial cytochrome C oxidase subunit I gene. Mosquitoes were then identified to species by sequencing a region of the internal transcribed spacer-2. DNA extracts from all mosquitoes identified as having fed on rabbits were subsequently screened using PCR for the presence of myxoma virus. A total of 94 blood-fed Anopheles maculipennis s.l. were collected, of which 43 (46%) provided positive blood-meal identification results. Thirty-six of these specimens were identified as Anopheles atroparvus, which had fed on rabbit (n = 33, 92%) and cattle (n = 3, 8%). Seven mosquitoes were identified as Anopheles messeae, which had fed on cattle (n = 6, 86%) and dog (n = 1, 14%). Of the 33 An. atroparvus that contained rabbit blood, nine (27%) were positive for myxoma virus. Results demonstrate that a single DNA extract from a blood-fed mosquito can be successfully used for molecular identification of members of the An. maculipennis complex, blood

  18. Thresholds and Complex Dynamics of Interdependent Cascading Infrastructure Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carreras, B. A.; Newman, D. E.; Dobson, I.; Lynch, V. E.; Gradney, Paul

    Critical infrastructures have a number of the characteristic properties of complex systems. Among these are infrequent large failures through cascading events. These events, though infrequent, often obey a power law distribution in their probability versus size which suggests that conventional risk analysis does not apply to these systems. Real infrastructure systems typically have an additional layer of complexity, namely the heterogeneous coupling to other infrastructure systems that can allow a failure in one system to propagate to the other system. Here, we model the infrastructure systems through a network with complex system dynamics. We use both mean field theory to get analytic results and a numerical complex systems model, Demon, for computational results. An isolated system has bifurcated fixed points and a cascading threshold which is the same as the bifurcation point. When systems are coupled, this is no longer true and the cascading threshold is different from the bifurcation point of the fixed point solutions. This change in the cascading threshold caused by the interdependence of the system can have an impact on the "safe operation" of interdependent infrastructure systems by changing the critical point and even the power law exponent.

  19. Evaluation of the surveillance system for undiagnosed serious infectious illness (USII) in intensive care units, England, 2011 to 2013.

    PubMed

    Dabrera, G; Said, B; Kirkbride, H

    2014-11-20

    Emerging infections are a potential risk during mass gathering events due to the congregation of large numbers of international travellers. To mitigate this risk for the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games, a sentinel surveillance system was developed to identify clusters of emerging infections presenting as undiagnosed serious infectious illness (USII) in intensive care units (ICUs). Following a six month pilot period, which had begun in January 2011, the surveillance was operational for a further 18 months spanning the Games. The surveillance system and reported USII cases were reviewed and evaluated after this 18 month operational period including assessment of positive predictive value (PPV), timeliness, acceptability and sensitivity of the system. Surveillance records were used to review reported cases and calculate the PPV and median reporting times of USII surveillance. Sensitivity was assessed through comparison with the pilot period. Participating clinicians completed a five-point Likert scale questionnaire about the acceptability of surveillance. Between 11 July 2011 and 10 January 2013, 34 cases were reported. Of these, 22 remained classified as USII at the time of the evaluation, none of which were still hospitalised. No clusters were identified. The 22 USII cases had no association with the Games, suggesting that they represented the background level of USII in the area covered by the surveillance. This corresponded to an annualised rate of 0.39 cases/100,000 population and a PPV of 65%. Clinicians involved in the surveillance reported high acceptability levels. The USII surveillance model could be a useful public health tool in other countries and during mass gathering events for identifying potential clusters of emerging infections.

  20. International Specialist Seminar on Systems on Silicon, 2nd, Buxton, England, October 22-25, 1985, Proceedings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorey, A. P.

    1986-05-01

    Various papers discussing systems on silicon are presented. The topics addressed include: silicon-on-insulator technology, cell-based design, structured approaches to design, behavior description and VLSI verification, image reconstruction using the transputer, and SCAPE: a single-chip array processing element for signal and image processing. Also considered are: VLSI and WSI associative string processors for structured data processing, logic programs and an experimental architecture for their execution, design of a reliable and self-testing VLSI data-path using residue codign techniques, and integrated CAD and work stations.

  1. Separating internal and external dynamics of complex systems.

    PubMed

    Argollo de Menezes, M; Barabási, A-L

    2004-08-06

    The observable behavior of a complex system reflects the mechanisms governing the internal interactions between the system's components and the effect of external perturbations. Here we show that by capturing the simultaneous activity of several of the system's components we can separate the internal dynamics from the external fluctuations. The method allows us to systematically determine the origin of fluctuations in various real systems, finding that while the Internet and the computer chip have robust internal dynamics, highway and Web traffic are driven by external demand. As multichannel measurements are becoming the norm in most fields, the method could help uncover the collective dynamics of a wide array of complex systems.

  2. Governing Education through Data: Scotland, England and the European Education Policy Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grek, Sotiria; Ozga, Jenny

    2010-01-01

    This paper draws on interview data from national policy makers in England, Scotland and the European Commission to illustrate differences in the referencing of "Europe" in education policy-making in England and Scotland in order to highlight the emergent complexity of post-devolution policy-making in education through a focus on…

  3. Anticipatory regulation of complex power systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fieno, Thomas Edward

    Electric generation control is performed in a distributed manner to supply power to geographically defined control areas. The goal of generation control is to keep the inadvertent flow of power across a control area's boundary as small as possible. If a difference exists between the power supplied and the power demanded in a control area, the load deficit or surplus would be either borrowed from or stored as the kinetic energy in rotating machines on the grid. This thesis addresses the challenge of matching the power demand of a local area grid with the power delivered by a coal-fired power plant. An anticipatory controller for a model power plant is presented to prescribe the power output into the grid. The control system forecasts what the future demand of the power customers in a control area is likely to be and modifies the fuel input to the power generation facility in order to match the predicted demand. A neural network was found to be an adaptable and robust prediction mechanism for the highly nonlinear data found in the power consumption patterns in a residential area of the Commonwealth Edison grid. The corresponding control schedule of the power plant was tuned to match the anticipated demand using an iterative neural network approach. The use of neural networks and an iterative scheme allows the controller design in this research to be applied to a broad range of control problems. The control methodology presented takes into account limits in the magnitude and rate of control actions. Simulations show that this implementation of anticipatory control of electric power demand is effective and especially well suited to dynamic systems that include a dead time or control limitations. The response of the anticipatory neural network control system was shown to be more energy efficient than feedback control for a typical thermal power regulation facility and to have a much smoother, reduced control effort.

  4. Universal properties of dynamically complex systems - The organization of chaos

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Procaccia, Itamar

    1988-06-01

    The complex dynamic behavior of natural systems far from equilibrium is discussed. Progress that has been made in understanding universal aspects of the paths to such behavior, of the trajectories at the borderline of chaos, and of the nature of the complexity in the chaotic regime, is reviewed. The emerging grammar of chaos is examined.

  5. Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

  6. Vertical leadership in highly complex and unpredictable health systems.

    PubMed

    Till, Alex; Dutta, Nina; McKimm, Judy

    2016-08-02

    This article explores how the concept of vertical leadership development might help health organizations cope with and thrive within highly complex and unpredictable health systems, looking at concepts of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) and RUPT (rapid, unpredictable, paradoxical and tangled).

  7. Classrooms as Complex Adaptive Systems: A Relational Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Anne; Knox, John S.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over…

  8. Leading Systemic Improvement: Confronting Complexity in Turnaround Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peurach, Donald J.; Marx, Gary E.

    2010-01-01

    This case is developed for use in a policy-centered course on systemic improvement in underperforming districts and schools. The narrative details the complexity that arose in the context of one such reform initiative, a framework for analyzing that complexity, and a set of leadership decisions that follow. Course instructors can use the case to:…

  9. Research Methodology on Language Development from a Complex Systems Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane; Cameron, Lynne

    2008-01-01

    Changes to research methodology motivated by the adoption of a complexity theory perspective on language development are considered. The dynamic, nonlinear, and open nature of complex systems, together with their tendency toward self-organization and interaction across levels and timescales, requires changes in traditional views of the functions…

  10. Research Methodology on Language Development from a Complex Systems Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane; Cameron, Lynne

    2008-01-01

    Changes to research methodology motivated by the adoption of a complexity theory perspective on language development are considered. The dynamic, nonlinear, and open nature of complex systems, together with their tendency toward self-organization and interaction across levels and timescales, requires changes in traditional views of the functions…

  11. Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

  12. Complex Synchronization Phenomena in Ecological Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, Lewi; Olinky, Ronen; Blasius, Bernd; Huppert, Amit; Cazelles, Bernard

    2002-07-01

    Ecological and biological systems provide us with many striking examples of synchronization phenomena. Here we discuss a number of intriguing cases and attempt to explain them taking advantage of a modelling framework. One main focus will concern synchronized ecological end epidemiological cycles which have Uniform Phase growth associated with their regular recurrence, and Chaotic Amplitudes - a feature we term UPCA. Examples come from different areas and include decadal cycles of small mammals, recurrent viral epidemics such as childhood infections (eg., measles), and seasonally driven phytoplankton blooms observed in lakes and the oceans. A more detailed theoretical analysis of seasonally synchronized chaotic population cycles is presented.

  13. Visualization of complex hydrocarbon reaction systems

    SciTech Connect

    Shinn, J.H.

    1996-10-01

    Many hydrocarbon reactions of interest involve either poorly characterized reactants and products and/or large numbers of simultaneous reactions. An important step in understanding the behavior of such systems is to develop quantitative pictures of the feeds and products and the transformations which connect them. The processes for constructing these reaction visualizations is illustrated by examining the construction of a molecular model for coal liquefaction and subsequent conversion to distillate products, and the construction of a video simulation of catalytic petroleum naphtha reforming. New techniques which are permitting advances in these visualizations are discussed.

  14. Visualization of complex hydrocarbon reaction systems

    SciTech Connect

    Shinn, J.H.

    1996-12-31

    Many hydrocarbon reactions of interest involve either poorly characterized reactants and products and/or large numbers of simultaneous reactions. An important step in understanding the behavior of such systems is to develop quantitative pictures of the feeds and products and the transformations which connect them. The processes for constructing these reaction visualizations is illustrated by examining the construction of a molecular model for coal liquefaction and subsequent conversion to distillate products, and the construction of a video simulation of catalytic petroleum naphtha reforming. New technique which are permitting advances in these visualizations are discussed.

  15. Program Helps Decompose Complex Design Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rogers, James L., Jr.; Hall, Laura E.

    1995-01-01

    DeMAID (Design Manager's Aid for Intelligent Decomposition) computer program is knowledge-based software system for ordering sequence of modules and identifying possible multilevel structure for design problems such as large platforms in outer space. Groups modular subsystems on basis of interactions among them. Saves considerable amount of money and time in total design process, particularly in new design problem in which order of modules has not been defined. Originally written for design problems, also applicable to problems containing modules (processes) that take inputs and generate outputs. Available in three machine versions: Macintosh written in Symantec's Think C 3.01, Sun, and SGI IRIS in C language.

  16. [Complex system of differentiated prediction of strokes].

    PubMed

    Semak, A E; Misiuk, N S; Adamovich, V I; Plotnikov, Iu V; Khomasuridze, D O

    1987-01-01

    On the basis of the data on 2287 patients with cerebral strokes (CS) and 800 individuals without this disease, and using discriminant and probability methods, the authors have identified 158 supposed risk factors (RF) of CS development. They have also established the specificity of RFs which depends on the nature of CS, as well as ascertained the dependence of informative value of these factors on the size of samples and the degree of percentage reflection by the main demographic indicators of the studied population. RFs are classified as controllable and uncontrollable. The authors have selected 50 risk factors with 2-5 gradations ranging from the normal to the maximal pathology and reflecting various aspects of CS etiopathogenesis. This work has resulted in the creating of a mathematical model of SC development. On the basis of this model and using the Bayes' theorem the authors have developed a system intended for predicting CS and its nature by 50, 25, and 15 RFs which is implemented by means of universal, micro- or minicomputers and tables which make it possible to predict with a 88.8% accuracy the development of CS as well as to determine the most rational individual prophylaxis of threatening stroke which is achieved through an accurate balancing in the system of controllable and uncontrollable RFs.

  17. On Chaotic and Hyperchaotic Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, Gamal M.

    Dynamical systems described by real and complex variables are currently one of the most popular areas of scientific research. These systems play an important role in several fields of physics, engineering, and computer sciences, for example, laser systems, control (or chaos suppression), secure communications, and information science. Dynamical basic properties, chaos (hyperchaos) synchronization, chaos control, and generating hyperchaotic behavior of these systems are briefly summarized. The main advantage of introducing complex variables is the reduction of phase space dimensions by a half. They are also used to describe and simulate the physics of detuned laser and thermal convection of liquid flows, where the electric field and the atomic polarization amplitudes are both complex. Clearly, if the variables of the system are complex the equations involve twice as many variables and control parameters, thus making it that much harder for a hostile agent to intercept and decipher the coded message. Chaotic and hyperchaotic complex systems are stated as examples. Finally there are many open problems in the study of chaotic and hyperchaotic complex nonlinear dynamical systems, which need further investigations. Some of these open problems are given.

  18. Classroom-Oriented Research from a Complex Systems Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane

    2016-01-01

    Bringing a complex systems perspective to bear on classroom-oriented research challenges researchers to think differently, seeing the classroom ecology as one dynamic system nested in a hierarchy of such systems at different levels of scale, all of which are spatially and temporally situated. This article begins with an introduction to complex…

  19. Infinitely Many Heteroclinic Orbits of a Complex Lorenz System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Haijun; Li, Xianyi

    2017-06-01

    The existence of heteroclinic orbits of a chaotic system is a difficult yet interesting mathematical problem. Nowadays, a rigorous analytical proof for the existence of a heteroclinic orbit can be carried out only for some special chaotic and hyperchaotic systems, and few results are known for the complex systems. In this paper, by revisiting a complex Lorenz system, it is found that this system possesses an infinite set of heteroclinic orbits to the origin and its circle equilibria. However, it is impossible for the corresponding real Lorenz system to have infinitely many heteroclinic orbits. The theoretical tools for proving the main results are Lyapunov functions and the definitions of α-limit set and ω-limit set. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness and correctness of the theoretical conclusions. The investigations not only enrich the related results for the complex Lorenz system, but also find the essential difference between the complex Lorenz system and its corresponding real version: the complex Lorenz system has infinitely many heteroclinic orbits whereas its corresponding real one does not.

  20. Engineering Complex Human-Technological Work Systems: A Sensemaking Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-06-01

    of the systems analyst. Here, the systems engineer must begin to consider various types of knowledge - based systems, including (1) work control...sequence of both formal and informal activities and knowledge products through which an organization projects and guides its actions into the future, and...system engineer with deeper insight into the structures and activities associated with knowledge creation. Complex human-technological work systems

  1. Obesity, Complexity, and the Role of the Health System.

    PubMed

    Frood, Sarah; Johnston, Lee M; Matteson, Carrie L; Finegood, Diane T

    2013-01-01

    As obesity continues to increase throughout the world, there is still no well-defined solution to the issue. Reducing obesity poses a significant challenge for the health care system because it is a complex problem with numerous interconnections and elements. The complexity of obesity challenges traditional primary care practices that have been structured to address simple or less complicated conditions. Systems thinking provides a way forward for clinicians that are discouraged or overwhelmed by the complexity of obesity. At any given level, individuals matter and system functioning is optimized when our capacity is well matched to the complexity of our tasks. Shifting paradigms around the causes of obesity is essential for creating a health care system that promotes innovative and collaborative practice for healthcare practitioners and individuals dealing with obesity.

  2. Traditional Knowledge of Western Herbal Medicine and Complex Systems Science

    PubMed Central

    Niemeyer, Kathryn; Bell, Iris R.; Koithan, Mary

    2013-01-01

    Traditional knowledge of Western herbal medicine (WHM) supports experiential approaches to healing that have evolved over time. This is evident in the use of polyherb formulations comprised of crude plant parts, individually tailored to treat the cause of dysfunction and imbalance by addressing the whole person holistically. The challenge for WHM is to integrate science with traditional knowledge that is a foundation of the practice of WHM. The purpose of this paper is to provide a plausible theoretical hypothesis by applying complex systems science to WHM, illustrating how medicinal plants are complex, adaptive, environmentally interactive systems exhibiting synergy and nonlinear healing causality. This paper explores the conceptual congruence between medicinal plants and humans as complex systems coherently coupled through recurrent interaction. Complex systems science provides the theoretical tenets that explain traditional knowledge of medicinal plants while supporting clinical practice and expanding research and documentation of WHM. PMID:24058898

  3. A Simple Framework for Complex System Improvement

    PubMed Central

    Kraft, Sally; Carayon, Pascale; Weiss, Jennifer; Pandhi, Nancy

    2014-01-01

    The need to rapidly improve health care value is unquestioned, but the means to accomplish this task is unknown. Improving performance at the level of the health care organization frequently involves multiple interventions, which must be coordinated and sequenced to fit the specific context. Those responsible for achieving large-scale improvements are challenged by the lack of a framework to describe and organize improvement strategies. Drawing from the fields of health services, industrial engineering, and organizational behavior, a simple framework was developed and has been used to guide and evaluate improvement initiatives at an academic health center. The authors anticipate that this framework will be helpful for health system leaders responsible for improving health care quality. PMID:24723664

  4. Dynamics of ranking processes in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Blumm, Nicholas; Ghoshal, Gourab; Forró, Zalán; Schich, Maximilian; Bianconi, Ginestra; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Barabási, Albert-László

    2012-09-21

    The world is addicted to ranking: everything, from the reputation of scientists, journals, and universities to purchasing decisions is driven by measured or perceived differences between them. Here, we analyze empirical data capturing real time ranking in a number of systems, helping to identify the universal characteristics of ranking dynamics. We develop a continuum theory that not only predicts the stability of the ranking process, but shows that a noise-induced phase transition is at the heart of the observed differences in ranking regimes. The key parameters of the continuum theory can be explicitly measured from data, allowing us to predict and experimentally document the existence of three phases that govern ranking stability.

  5. Evolution of functional subnetworks in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Li, Menghui; Wang, Xingang; Lai, Choy-Heng

    2010-12-01

    Links in a realistic network may have different functions, which makes the network virtually a combination of some small-size functional subnetworks. Here, by a model of coupled phase oscillators, we investigate how such functional subnetworks are evolved and developed according to the network structure and dynamics. In particular, we study the case of evolutionary clustered networks in which the function type of each link (attractive or repulsive coupling) is adaptively updated according to the local network dynamics. It is found that during the process of system evolution, the network is gradually stabilized into a particular form in which the attractive (repulsive) subnetwork consists only of the intralinks (interlinks). Based on the observed properties of subnetwork evolution, we also propose a new algorithm for network partition which, compared with the conventional algorithms, is distinguished by its convenient operation and fast computing speed. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

  6. Dynamics of Ranking Processes in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blumm, Nicholas; Ghoshal, Gourab; Forró, Zalán; Schich, Maximilian; Bianconi, Ginestra; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Barabási, Albert-László

    2012-09-01

    The world is addicted to ranking: everything, from the reputation of scientists, journals, and universities to purchasing decisions is driven by measured or perceived differences between them. Here, we analyze empirical data capturing real time ranking in a number of systems, helping to identify the universal characteristics of ranking dynamics. We develop a continuum theory that not only predicts the stability of the ranking process, but shows that a noise-induced phase transition is at the heart of the observed differences in ranking regimes. The key parameters of the continuum theory can be explicitly measured from data, allowing us to predict and experimentally document the existence of three phases that govern ranking stability.

  7. Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study.

    PubMed

    Yu, Shaocai; Mathur, Rohit; Kang, Daiwen; Schere, Kenneth; Eder, Brian; Pleim, Jonathan

    2006-10-01

    A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.

  8. Complexity and significance in computer simulations of physiological systems.

    PubMed

    Kootsey, J M

    1987-06-01

    Complexity in a theoretical model may or may not be associated with a high level of arbitrariness, depending on how the model is constructed. In this paper I use examples from cardiac electrophysiology to illustrate two techniques for maintaining significance in complex simulations. First, the approaches of analysis and synthesis are compared as methods of constructing models of complex systems. When a model is constructed by synthesis of known principles, facts, and subunits, it may have any degree of complexity without losing significance; the same is not true for analysis models. Significance can also be maintained by assembling a limited model to test a specific hypothesis of mechanism.

  9. Anticipated synchronization in coupled complex Ginzburg-Landau systems.

    PubMed

    Ciszak, Marzena; Mayol, Catalina; Mirasso, Claudio R; Toral, Raul

    2015-09-01

    We study the occurrence of anticipated synchronization in two complex Ginzburg-Landau systems coupled in a master-slave configuration. Master and slave systems are ruled by the same autonomous function, but the slave system receives the injection from the master and is subject to a negative delayed self-feedback loop. We give evidence that the magnitude of the largest anticipation time, obtained for complex-valued coupling constants, depends on the dynamical regime where the system operates (defect turbulence, phase turbulence, or bichaos) and scales with the linear autocorrelation time of the system. We also provide analytical conditions for the stability of the anticipated synchronization manifold that are in qualitative agreement with those obtained numerically. Finally, we report on the existence of anticipated synchronization in coupled two-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau systems.

  10. A synthesis and a practical approach to complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodu, Nicolas

    2006-06-01

    This document is both a synthesis of current notions about complex systems, and a practical approach description. A disambiguation is proposed and exposes possible reasons for controversies related to causation and emergence. Theoretical considerations about simulations are presented. A justification is then given for the development of practical tools and techniques for the investigation of complex systems. A methodology for the usage of these tools is finally suggested, illustrated by application examples.

  11. Modeling of Complex Adaptive Systems in Air Operations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-09-01

    control of C3 in an increasingly complex military environment. Control theory is a multidisciplinary science associated with dynamic systems and, while...AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2006-282 In- House Final Technical Report September 2006 MODELING OF COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN AIR OPERATIONS...NOTICE AND SIGNATURE PAGE Using Government drawings, specifications, or other data included in this document for any purpose other than Government

  12. A functional approach to geometry optimization of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maslen, P. E.

    A quadratically convergent procedure is presented for the geometry optimization of complex systems, such as biomolecules and molecular complexes. The costly evaluation of the exact Hessian is avoided by expanding the density functional to second order in both nuclear and electronic variables, and then searching for the minimum of the quadratic functional. The dependence of the functional on the choice of nuclear coordinate system is described, and illustrative geometry optimizations using Cartesian and internal coordinates are presented for Taxol™.

  13. Correcting Aberrations in Complex Magnet Systems for Muon Cooling Channels

    SciTech Connect

    J.A. Maloney, B. Erdelyi, A. Afanaciev, R.P. Johnson, Y.S. Derbenev, V.S. Morozov

    2011-03-01

    Designing and simulating complex magnet systems needed for cooling channels in both neutrino factories and muon colliders requires innovative techniques to correct for both chromatic and spherical aberrations. Optimizing complex systems, such as helical magnets for example, is also difficult but essential. By using COSY INFINITY, a differential algebra based code, the transfer and aberration maps can be examined to discover what critical terms have the greatest influence on these aberrations.

  14. Documentation Driven Development for Complex Real-Time Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-12-01

    REPORT Documentation Driven Development for Complex Real-Time Systems 14. ABSTRACT 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: This paper presents a novel approach...5000 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE b. ABSTRACT UU c. THIS PAGE UU 2. REPORT TYPE Old Reprint 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 5d...Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 - Documentation Driven Development for Complex Real-Time Systems Report Title ABSTRACT This paper presents a novel

  15. Hydrodynamic complexity in the Earth system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltier, W. Richard

    Geophysical fluid Dynamics (GFD), as a recognizably distinct subdiscipline in the geophysical sciences, was probably born in the continuing series of Summer Schools in GFD that began at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution over 20 years ago. The goal of these schools was to bring together relatively small groups of gifted graduate students with professional academics working in the areas of astrophysics, atmospheric science, geophysics, oceanography and other areas in which models based upon the concepts of classical hydrodynamics were coming to be seen as central to the understanding of a wide range of dynamical processes. The point of this effort was, and remains, to emphasize the commonality of physical process that underlies the behaviour of such apparently unrelated systems and thereby to stimulate the growth of a new group of theoretical geophysicists whose members are as comfortable in analyzing the behaviour of the infinite Reynold number flows that dominate the general circulation of the planetary atmosphere as they are in developing models of the zero Reynolds number flow associated with convection in the earth's mantle. The goal was, and remains, for example, to educate astrophysicists to understand that the double diffusive processes at work in magnetoconvection in the earth's core (say) have many similarities with the processes that operate in the oceanographically important heat-salt system; and similarly to educate oceanographers to understand that the process of Gulf Stream ring formation has everything to do with the process of occlusion of a frontal baroclinic wave in the atmosphere, etc. The summary of the present state and future promise of this young science, by Raymond Hyde, in the preceding paper of this volume, has provided an interesting view of some of the areas of present research that are liable to be most productive of new insights in the immediate future. By way of this invited response to what Dr. Hyde has written I thought I

  16. Nervous System and Intracranial Tumour Incidence by Ethnicity in England, 2001–2007: A Descriptive Epidemiological Study

    PubMed Central

    Maile, Edward J.; Barnes, Isobel; Finlayson, Alexander E.; Sayeed, Shameq; Ali, Raghib

    2016-01-01

    Background There is substantial variation in nervous system and intracranial tumour incidence worldwide. UK incidence data have limited utility because they group these diverse tumours together and do not provide data for individual ethnic groups within Blacks and South Asians. Our objective was to determine the incidence of individual tumour types for seven individual ethnic groups. Methods We used data from the National Cancer Intelligence Network on tumour site, age, sex and deprivation to identify 42,207 tumour cases. Self-reported ethnicity was obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. We used mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics. We analysed tumours by site using Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios comparing non-White ethnicities to Whites after adjustment for sex, age and deprivation. Results Our study showed differences in tumour incidence by ethnicity for gliomas, meningiomas, pituitary tumours and cranial and paraspinal nerve tumours. Relative to Whites; South Asians, Blacks and Chinese have a lower incidence of gliomas (p<0.01), with respective incidence rate ratios of 0.68 (confidence interval: 0.60–0.77), 0.62 (0.52–0.73) and 0.58 (0.41–0.83). Blacks have a higher incidence of meningioma (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 1.29 (1.05–1.59) and there is heterogeneity in meningioma incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Blacks have a higher incidence of pituitary tumours relative to Whites (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 2.95 (2.37–3.67). There is heterogeneity in pituitary tumour incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Conclusions We present incidence data of individual tumour types for seven ethnic groups. Current understanding of the aetiology of these tumours cannot explain our results. These findings suggest avenues for further work. PMID:27135830

  17. Recording information on protein complexes in an information management system.

    PubMed

    Savitsky, Marc; Diprose, Jonathan M; Morris, Chris; Griffiths, Susanne L; Daniel, Edward; Lin, Bill; Daenke, Susan; Bishop, Benjamin; Siebold, Christian; Wilson, Keith S; Blake, Richard; Stuart, David I; Esnouf, Robert M

    2011-08-01

    The Protein Information Management System (PiMS) is a laboratory information management system (LIMS) designed for use with the production of proteins in a research environment. The software is distributed under the CCP4 licence, and so is available free of charge to academic laboratories. Like most LIMS, the underlying PiMS data model originally had no support for protein-protein complexes. To support the SPINE2-Complexes project the developers have extended PiMS to meet these requirements. The modifications to PiMS, described here, include data model changes, additional protocols, some user interface changes and functionality to detect when an experiment may have formed a complex. Example data are shown for the production of a crystal of a protein complex. Integration with SPINE2-Complexes Target Tracker application is also described.

  18. Recording information on protein complexes in an information management system

    PubMed Central

    Savitsky, Marc; Diprose, Jonathan M.; Morris, Chris; Griffiths, Susanne L.; Daniel, Edward; Lin, Bill; Daenke, Susan; Bishop, Benjamin; Siebold, Christian; Wilson, Keith S.; Blake, Richard; Stuart, David I.; Esnouf, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    The Protein Information Management System (PiMS) is a laboratory information management system (LIMS) designed for use with the production of proteins in a research environment. The software is distributed under the CCP4 licence, and so is available free of charge to academic laboratories. Like most LIMS, the underlying PiMS data model originally had no support for protein–protein complexes. To support the SPINE2-Complexes project the developers have extended PiMS to meet these requirements. The modifications to PiMS, described here, include data model changes, additional protocols, some user interface changes and functionality to detect when an experiment may have formed a complex. Example data are shown for the production of a crystal of a protein complex. Integration with SPINE2-Complexes Target Tracker application is also described. PMID:21605682

  19. Drakelands Mine, England

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2015-08-21

    The Drakelands Mine (previously known as the Hemerdon Mine) is a historic tungsten and tin mine located northeast of Plymouth, England. Tin and tungsten deposits were discovered in 1867, and the mine operated until 1944. Last year work started to re-open the mine, as it hosts the fourth-largest tungsten and tin deposits in the world. Tungsten has innumerable uses due to its incredible density and high melting temperature. Yet more than 80% of world supply is controlled by China, who has imposed restriction on export of the metal. The image covers an area of 17 by 18.9 km, was acquired June 5, 2013, and is located at 50.4 degrees north, 4 degrees west. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19757

  20. Approximate entropy as a measure of system complexity.

    PubMed Central

    Pincus, S M

    1991-01-01

    Techniques to determine changing system complexity from data are evaluated. Convergence of a frequently used correlation dimension algorithm to a finite value does not necessarily imply an underlying deterministic model or chaos. Analysis of a recently developed family of formulas and statistics, approximate entropy (ApEn), suggests that ApEn can classify complex systems, given at least 1000 data values in diverse settings that include both deterministic chaotic and stochastic processes. The capability to discern changing complexity from such a relatively small amount of data holds promise for applications of ApEn in a variety of contexts. PMID:11607165

  1. Green photonics realized by optical complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanri, Hiroto; Sasaki, Wakao

    2013-12-01

    We have experimentally demonstrated a new smart grid model which can control DC electric power flow autonomously among individual homes, by using an optical self-organized node with optical non-linear characteristics, and these homes are assumed to be installed by distributed power supplies, and electric power storage devices, and also supposed to be supplied partly by the commercial electric power grid utilities. An electric power network is composed of nodes and devises called Power Gate Unit (PGU). The nodes have optical nonlinearity for self-organizing informations about surplus or shortage of electric power as to individual homes. The PGU is a distributing unit of actual electric power based on above informations of power surplus or shortage at each home. The PGU at each home is electrically connected to both the onsite power supplies and household load such as a solar panel, a DC motor, and a storage battery as well as the commercial electric power grid utilities. In this work, we composed our experimental self-organized DC power grid with above components and supposed the supplied maximum power from the commercial electric power grid utilities to be limited to 5V-0.5A. In this network, information about surplus or shortage of electric power will propagate through the nodes. In the experiments, surplus electric current 0.4A at a particular node was distributed toward a PGU of another node suffering from shortage of electric current. We also confirmed in the experiments and simulations that even when signal propagation path was disconnected accidentally the network could recover an optimized path. The present smart grid system we have attained may be applied by optical fiber link in the near future because our essential components controlling PGU, i.e. the nodes are electro-optical hybrid which are easily applicable to fiber optical link so as to control electric power transmission line.

  2. Preparing primary care for the future - perspectives from the Netherlands, England, and USA.

    PubMed

    Erler, Antje; Bodenheimer, Thomas; Baker, Richard; Goodwin, Nick; Spreeuwenberg, Cor; Vrijhoef, Hubertus J M; Nolte, Ellen; Gerlach, Ferdinand M

    2011-01-01

    All modern healthcare systems need to respond to the common challenges posed by an aging population combined with a growing number of patients with (complex) chronic conditions and rising patient expectations. Countries with 'stronger' primary care systems (e.g. the Netherlands and England) seem to be better prepared to address these challenges than countries with 'weaker' primary care (e.g. USA). The role of primary care in a health care system is strongly related to its organisation and funding, thus determining the starting point and the possibilities for change. We selected the Netherlands, England, and USA as examples for the diversity of approaches to organise and finance health care. We analysed the main problems for primary care and reviewed strategies and practice models used to meet the challenges described above. The Netherlands aim to strengthen prevention for chronic diseases, while England strives to improve the management of patients with multimorbidity, prevent hospital admissions to contain costs, and to satisfy the increased demand of patients for access to primary care. Both countries seek to reorganise care around the patient and place their needs at the centre. The USA has to provide sufficient workforce, organisation, and funding for primary care to ensure better access, prevention, and provision of chronic care for its population. Strategies to improve (trans-sectoral) cooperation and care coordination, a main issue in all three countries, include the implementation of standards of care and bundled payments for chronic diseases in the Netherlands, GP commissioning, federated and group practice models in England, and the introduction of the Patient-Centred Medical Home and accountable care organisations in the USA. Organisation and financing of health care differ widely in the three countries. However, the necessity to improve coordination and integration of chronic disease care remains a common and core challenge. Copyright © 2011. Published

  3. Method and system for producing complex-shape objects

    DOEpatents

    Jeantette, Francisco P.; Keicher, David M.; Romero, Joseph A.; Schanwald, Lee P.

    2000-01-01

    A method and system are provided for producing complex, three-dimensional, net shape objects from a variety of powdered materials. The system includes unique components to ensure a uniform and continuous flow of powdered materials as well as to focus and locate the flow of powdered materials with respect to a laser beam which results in the melting of the powdered material. The system also includes a controller so that the flow of molten powdered materials can map out and form complex, three-dimensional, net-shape objects by layering the molten powdered material. Advantageously, such complex, three-dimensional net-shape objects can be produced having material densities varying from 90% of theoretical to fully dense, as well as a variety of controlled physical properties. Additionally, such complex, three-dimensional objects can be produced from two or more different materials so that the composition of the object can be transitioned from one material to another.

  4. Complex vibration ultrasonic welding systems with large area welding tips.

    PubMed

    Tsujino, Jiromaru; Sano, Tsutomu; Ogata, Hayato; Tanaka, Soichi; Harada, Yoshiki

    2002-05-01

    Vibration and welding characteristics of complex vibration ultrasonic welding systems of 27 and 40 kHz were studied. Complex vibration systems, which have elliptical to circular or rectangular to square locus, are effective for ultrasonic welding of various specimens including the same and different metal specimens, and for direct welding of semiconductor tips and packaging of various electronic devices without solder. The complex vibration systems consist of a one-dimensional longitudinal-torsional vibration converter with slitted part, a stepped horn and a longitudinal vibration transducer as a driving source. The complex vibration welding tips of 27 and 40 kHz have enough area of 6-8 mm square for various welding specimens. Aluminum plate specimens of 0.3-1.0 mm thickness were successfully joined with weld strengths almost equal to aluminum specimen strength, and independent to the specimen direction. Required vibration amplitude of 40 kHz is smaller than that of 27 kHz.

  5. Universality of flux-fluctuation law in complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Zhao; Huang, Zi-Gang; Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Yang, Lei; Xue, De-Sheng

    2013-01-01

    Recent work has revealed a law governing flux fluctuation and the average flux in complex dynamical systems. We establish the universality of this flux-fluctuation law through the following steps: (i) We derive the law in a more general setting, showing that it depends on a single parameter characterizing the external driving; (ii) we conduct extensive numerical computations using distinct external driving, different network topologies, and multiple traffic routing strategies; and (iii) we analyze data from an actual vehicle traffic system in a major city in China to lend more credence to the universality of the flux-fluctuation law. Additional factors considered include flux fluctuation on links, window size effect, and hidden topological structures such as nodal degree correlation. Besides its fundamental importance in complex systems, the flux-fluctuation law can be used to infer certain intrinsic property of the system for potential applications such as control of complex systems for improved performance.

  6. Design and implementation of a distributed Complex Event Processing system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Shang, Yanlei

    2017-01-01

    Making use of the massive events from event sources such as sensors and bank transactions and extract valuable information is of significant importance. Complex Event Processing (CEP), a method of detecting complex events from simple events stream, provides a solution of processing data in real time fast and efficiently. However, a single node CEP system can't satisfy requirements of processing massive event streams from multitudinous event sources. Therefore, this article designs a distributed CEP system, which combine Siddhi, a CEP engine, and Storm, a distributed real time computation architecture. This system can construct topology automatically based on the event streams and execution plans provided by users and process the event streams parallel. Compared with single node complex event system, the distributed system can achieve better performance.

  7. Symmetric and Asymmetric Tendencies in Stable Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tan, James P. L.

    2016-01-01

    A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by obtaining eigenvalue bounds of the Jacobian, we show that stable complex systems will favor mutualistic and competitive relationships that are asymmetrical (non-reciprocative) and trophic relationships that are symmetrical (reciprocative). Additionally, we define a measure called the interdependence diversity that quantifies how distributed the dependencies are between the dynamical variables in the system. We find that increasing interdependence diversity has a destabilizing effect on the equilibrium point, and the effect is greater for trophic relationships than for mutualistic and competitive relationships. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations in ecology. More importantly, our findings suggest stabilization algorithms that can apply very generally to a variety of complex systems. PMID:27545722

  8. Symmetric and Asymmetric Tendencies in Stable Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    Tan, James P L

    2016-08-22

    A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by obtaining eigenvalue bounds of the Jacobian, we show that stable complex systems will favor mutualistic and competitive relationships that are asymmetrical (non-reciprocative) and trophic relationships that are symmetrical (reciprocative). Additionally, we define a measure called the interdependence diversity that quantifies how distributed the dependencies are between the dynamical variables in the system. We find that increasing interdependence diversity has a destabilizing effect on the equilibrium point, and the effect is greater for trophic relationships than for mutualistic and competitive relationships. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations in ecology. More importantly, our findings suggest stabilization algorithms that can apply very generally to a variety of complex systems.

  9. Semiotic aspects of control and modeling relations in complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Joslyn, C.

    1996-08-01

    A conceptual analysis of the semiotic nature of control is provided with the goal of elucidating its nature in complex systems. Control is identified as a canonical form of semiotic relation of a system to its environment. As a form of constraint between a system and its environment, its necessary and sufficient conditions are established, and the stabilities resulting from control are distinguished from other forms of stability. These result from the presence of semantic coding relations, and thus the class of control systems is hypothesized to be equivalent to that of semiotic systems. Control systems are contrasted with models, which, while they have the same measurement functions as control systems, do not necessarily require semantic relations because of the lack of the requirement of an interpreter. A hybrid construction of models in control systems is detailed. Towards the goal of considering the nature of control in complex systems, the possible relations among collections of control systems are considered. Powers arguments on conflict among control systems and the possible nature of control in social systems are reviewed, and reconsidered based on our observations about hierarchical control. Finally, we discuss the necessary semantic functions which must be present in complex systems for control in this sense to be present at all.

  10. Leadership and transitions: maintaining the science in complexity and complex systems.

    PubMed

    Sturmberg, Joachim P; Martin, Carmel M

    2012-02-01

    It is the 'moral compass', however subtle, that underpins leadership. Leadership, meaning showing the way, demands as much conviction as gentile diplomacy in the discourse with supporters and detractors. In particular, leadership defends the goal by safeguarding its principles from its detractors. The authors writing in the Forum on Complexity in Medicine and Healthcare since its inception are leaders in an intellectual transition to complex systems thinking in medicine and health. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Cx-02 Program, workshop on modeling complex systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mossotti, Victor G.; Barragan, Jo Ann; Westergard, Todd D.

    2003-01-01

    This publication contains the abstracts and program for the workshop on complex systems that was held on November 19-21, 2002, in Reno, Nevada. Complex systems are ubiquitous within the realm of the earth sciences. Geological systems consist of a multiplicity of linked components with nested feedback loops; the dynamics of these systems are non-linear, iterative, multi-scale, and operate far from equilibrium. That notwithstanding, It appears that, with the exception of papers on seismic studies, geology and geophysics work has been disproportionally underrepresented at regional and national meetings on complex systems relative to papers in the life sciences. This is somewhat puzzling because geologists and geophysicists are, in many ways, preadapted to thinking of complex system mechanisms. Geologists and geophysicists think about processes involving large volumes of rock below the sunlit surface of Earth, the accumulated consequence of processes extending hundreds of millions of years in the past. Not only do geologists think in the abstract by virtue of the vast time spans, most of the evidence is out-of-sight. A primary goal of this workshop is to begin to bridge the gap between the Earth sciences and life sciences through demonstration of the universality of complex systems science, both philosophically and in model structures.

  12. THE GENETIC BASIS OF A COMPLEX FUNCTIONAL SYSTEM

    PubMed Central

    Parnell, Nicholas F; Hulsey, C Darrin; Streelman, J Todd

    2012-01-01

    The relationship between form and function can have profound effects on evolutionary dynamics and such effects may differ for simple versus complex systems. In particular, functions produced by multiple structural configurations (many-to-one mapping, MTOM) may dampen constituent trade-offs and promote diversification. Unfortunately, we lack information about the genetic architecture of MTOM functional systems. The skulls of teleost fishes contain both simple (lower jaw levers) as well as more complex (jaws modeled as 4-bar linkages) functional systems within the same craniofacial unit. We examined the mapping of form to function and the genetic basis of these systems by identifying quantitative trait loci (QTL) in hybrids of two Lake Malawi cichlid species. Hybrid individuals exhibited novelty (transgressive segregation) in morphological components and function of the simple and complex jaw systems. Functional novelty was proportional to the prevalence of extreme morphologies in the simple levers; by contrast, recombination of parental morphologies produced transgression in the MTOM 4-bar linkage. We found multiple loci of moderate effect and epistasis controlling jaw phenotypes in both the simple and complex systems, with less phenotypic variance explained by QTL for the 4-bar. Genetic linkage between components of the simple and complex systems partly explains phenotypic correlations and may constrain functional evolution. PMID:23106702

  13. What is the utility of using syndromic surveillance systems during large subnational infectious gastrointestinal disease outbreaks? An observational study using case studies from the past 5 years in England.

    PubMed

    Todkill, D; Elliot, A J; Morbey, R; Harris, J; Hawker, J; Edeghere, O; Smith, G E

    2016-08-01

    Syndromic surveillance systems in England have demonstrated utility in the early identification of seasonal gastrointestinal illness (GI) tracking its spatio-temporal distribution and enabling early public health action. There would be additional public health utility if syndromic surveillance systems could detect or track subnational infectious disease outbreaks. To investigate using syndromic surveillance for this purpose we retrospectively identified eight large GI outbreaks between 2009 and 2014 (four randomly and four purposively sampled). We then examined syndromic surveillance information prospectively collected by the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team within Public Health England for evidence of possible outbreak-related changes. None of the outbreaks were identified contemporaneously and no alerts were made to relevant public health teams. Retrospectively, two of the outbreaks - which happened at similar times and in proximal geographical locations - demonstrated changes in the local trends of relevant syndromic indicators and exhibited a clustering of statistical alarms, but did not warrant alerting local health protection teams. Our suite of syndromic surveillance systems may be more suited to their original purposes than as means of detecting or monitoring localized, subnational GI outbreaks. This should, however, be considered in the context of this study's limitations; further prospective work is needed to fully explore the use of syndromic surveillance for this purpose. Provided geographical coverage is sufficient, syndromic surveillance systems could be able to provide reassurance of no or minor excess healthcare systems usage during localized GI incidents.

  14. A complexity scoring system for degenerative mitral valve repair.

    PubMed

    Anyanwu, Anelechi C; Itagaki, Shinobu; Chikwe, Joanna; El-Eshmawi, Ahmed; Adams, David H

    2016-06-01

    To develop a score to allow stratification of complexity in degenerative mitral valve repair. Retrospective modeling of data from 668 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for mitral valve prolapse. A complexity scoring scale was developed using a consensus approach, assigning a score to each valve, based on the following: prolapsing segments (weight 1 for each posterior segment; weight 2 for each anterior or commissural segment); presence of valve restriction (weight 2); presence of calcification (weight 3 if annulus involved, otherwise weight 2); and prior mitral valve repair (weight 3). Valve repairs were categorized into 3 groups based on the complexity score: 1: Simple (n = 244); 2-4: Intermediate (n = 260); ≥5: Complex (n = 164). Mitral valve repair was successfully performed in 667 patients (repair rate: 99.9%). The complexity score was directly correlated with surrogates of technical complexity. The mean cardiopulmonary bypass time increased with lesion complexity ([in minutes] simple: 152; intermediate: 167; complex 195; P < .001). The median number of repair techniques utilized was related to lesion complexity (simple: 3; intermediate: 4; complex: 5; P < .001). Barlow's type etiology was more prevalent in complex cases (63%), compared with simple (9%) and intermediate (35%) cases (P < .001). Advanced repair techniques were required to complete repair in 51% of complex cases, compared with 14% of intermediate and 0% of simple cases (P < .001). Early and late outcomes were similar. Our scoring system may allow effective stratification of complexity of mitral valve repair. Future studies are required to evaluate the use of our score in a prospective setting. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Computer-Assisted Monitoring Of A Complex System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beil, Bob J.; Mickelson, Eric M.; Sterritt, John M.; Costantino, Rob W.; Houvener, Bob C.; Super, Mike A.

    1995-01-01

    Propulsion System Advisor (PSA) computer-based system assists engineers and technicians in analyzing masses of sensory data indicative of operating conditions of space shuttle propulsion system during pre-launch and launch activities. Designed solely for monitoring; does not perform any control functions. Although PSA developed for highly specialized application, serves as prototype of noncontrolling, computer-based subsystems for monitoring other complex systems like electric-power-distribution networks and factories.

  16. Complexity and Control: Towards a Rigorous Behavioral Theory of Complex Dynamical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivancevic, Vladimir G.; Reid, Darryn J.

    We introduce our motive for writing this book on complexity and control with a popular "complexity myth," which seems to be quite wide spread among chaos and complexity theory fashionistas: Low-dimensional systems usually exhibit complex behaviours (which we know fromMay's studies of the Logisticmap), while high-dimensional systems usually exhibit simple behaviours (which we know from synchronisation studies of the Kuramoto model)... We admit that this naive view on complex (e.g., human) systems versus simple (e.g., physical) systems might seem compelling to various technocratic managers and politicians; indeed, the idea makes for appealing sound-bites. However, it is enough to see both in the equations and computer simulations of pendula of various degree - (i) a single pendulum, (ii) a double pendulum, and (iii) a triple pendulum - that this popular myth is plain nonsense. The only thing that we can learn from it is what every tyrant already knows: by using force as a strong means of control, it is possible to effectively synchronise even hundreds of millions of people, at least for a while.

  17. Solving complex-valued linear systems via equivalent real formulations

    SciTech Connect

    DAY,DAVID M.; HEROUX,MICHAEL A.

    2000-05-22

    Most algorithms used in preconditioned iterative methods are generally applicable to complex valued linear systems, with real valued linear systems simply being a special case. However, most iterative solver packages available today focus exclusively on real valued systems, or deal with complex valued systems as an afterthought. One obvious approach to addressing this problem is to recast the complex problem into one of a several equivalent real forms and then use a real valued solver to solve the related system. However, well-known theoretical results showing unfavorable spectral properties for the equivalent real forms have diminished enthusiasm for this approach. At the same time, experience has shown that there are situations where using an equivalent real form can be very effective. In this paper, the authors explore this approach, giving both theoretical and experimental evidence that an equivalent real form can be useful for a number of practical situations. Furthermore, they show that by making good use of some of the advance features of modem solver packages, they can easily generate equivalent real form preconditioners that are computationally efficient and mathematically identical to their complex counterparts. Using their techniques, they are able to solve very ill-conditioned complex valued linear systems for a variety of large scale applications. However, more importantly, they shed more light on the effectiveness of equivalent real forms and more clearly delineate how and when they should be used.

  18. Complex Systems and Educational Change: Towards a New Research Agenda

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lemke, Jay L.; Sabelli, Nora H.

    2008-01-01

    How might we usefully apply concepts and procedures derived from the study of other complex dynamical systems to analyzing systemic change in education? In this article, we begin to define possible agendas for research toward developing systematic frameworks and shared terminology for such a project. We illustrate the plausibility of defining such…

  19. Complex Moving Parts: Assessment Systems and Electronic Portfolios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larkin, Martha J.; Robertson, Royce L.

    2013-01-01

    The largest college within an online university of over 50,000 students invested significant resources in translating a complex assessment system focused on continuous improvement and national accreditation into an effective and efficient electronic portfolio (ePortfolio). The team building the system needed a model to address problems met…

  20. Understanding leukemic hematopoiesis as a complex adaptive system

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    Normal and abnormal hematopoiesis is working as a complex adaptive system. From this perspective, the development and the behavior of hematopoietic cell lineages appear as a balance between normal and abnormal hematopoiesis in the setting of a functioning or malfunctioning microenvironment under the control of the immune system and the influence of hereditary and environmental events. PMID:26516407

  1. Integrability of Lotka-Volterra Planar Complex Cubic Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dukarić, Maša; Giné, Jaume

    In this paper, we study the Lotka-Volterra complex cubic systems. We obtain necessary conditions of integrability for these systems with some restriction on the parameters. The sufficiency is proved for all conditions, except one which remains open, using different methods.

  2. Can Models Capture the Complexity of the Systems Engineering Process?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boppana, Krishna; Chow, Sam; de Weck, Olivier L.; Lafon, Christian; Lekkakos, Spyridon D.; Lyneis, James; Rinaldi, Matthew; Wang, Zhiyong; Wheeler, Paul; Zborovskiy, Marat; Wojcik, Leonard A.

    Many large-scale, complex systems engineering (SE) programs have been problematic; a few examples are listed below (Bar-Yam, 2003 and Cullen, 2004), and many others have been late, well over budget, or have failed: Hilton/Marriott/American Airlines system for hotel reservations and flights; 1988-1992; 125 million; "scrapped"

  3. Understanding leukemic hematopoiesis as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Xavier

    2015-10-26

    Normal and abnormal hematopoiesis is working as a complex adaptive system. From this perspective, the development and the behavior of hematopoietic cell lineages appear as a balance between normal and abnormal hematopoiesis in the setting of a functioning or malfunctioning microenvironment under the control of the immune system and the influence of hereditary and environmental events.

  4. Learning Communities: Understanding the Workplace as a Complex System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Brent; Sumara, Dennis

    2001-01-01

    Complexity theory is used to describe how workplace leaning occurs within a system of interactions and relationships. The learning system of a school-as-workplace is examined to understand the relationships, disequilibrium, and engagement that occur in a learning community. (SK)

  5. From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology

    SciTech Connect

    Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2015-09-15

    Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

  6. A Multiobjective Optimization Framework for Stochastic Control of Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Malikopoulos, Andreas; Maroulas, Vasileios; Xiong, Professor Jie

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of subsystems that interact with each other and the environment. We treat the stochastic control problem as a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems, and we show that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution is an optimal control policy that minimizes the average cost criterion for the entire system. For practical situations with constraints consistent to those we study here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value in deriving online an optimal control policy in complex systems.

  7. A duality framework for stochastic optimal control of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Malikopoulos, Andreas A.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we address the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of interactive subsystems. We formulate a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems and provide a duality framework to prove that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion of the system. We provide the conditions of existence and a geometric interpretation of the solution. For practical situations having constraints consistent with those studied here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value when we seek to derive online the optimal control policy in complex systems.

  8. From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2015-09-01

    Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

  9. From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology.

    PubMed

    Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2015-09-01

    Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

  10. Data driven uncertainty evaluation for complex engineered system design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Boyuan; Huang, Shuangxi; Fan, Wenhui; Xiao, Tianyuan; Humann, James; Lai, Yuyang; Jin, Yan

    2016-09-01

    Complex engineered systems are often difficult to analyze and design due to the tangled interdependencies among their subsystems and components. Conventional design methods often need exact modeling or accurate structure decomposition, which limits their practical application. The rapid expansion of data makes utilizing data to guide and improve system design indispensable in practical engineering. In this paper, a data driven uncertainty evaluation approach is proposed to support the design of complex engineered systems. The core of the approach is a data-mining based uncertainty evaluation method that predicts the uncertainty level of a specific system design by means of analyzing association relations along different system attributes and synthesizing the information entropy of the covered attribute areas, and a quantitative measure of system uncertainty can be obtained accordingly. Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to get the uncertainty extrema, and the possible data distributions under different situations is discussed in detail. The uncertainty values can be normalized using the simulation results and the values can be used to evaluate different system designs. A prototype system is established, and two case studies have been carried out. The case of an inverted pendulum system validates the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the case of an oil sump design shows the practicability when two or more design plans need to be compared. This research can be used to evaluate the uncertainty of complex engineered systems completely relying on data, and is ideally suited for plan selection and performance analysis in system design.

  11. Complex Homology and the Evolution of Nervous Systems

    PubMed Central

    Liebeskind, Benjamin J.; Hillis, David M.; Zakon, Harold H.; Hofmann, Hans A.

    2016-01-01

    We examine the complex evolution of animal nervous systems and discuss the ramifications of this complexity for inferring the nature of early animals. Although reconstructing the origins of nervous systems remains a central challenge in biology, and the phenotypic complexity of early animals remains controversial, a compelling picture is emerging. We now know that the nervous system and other key animal innovations contain a large degree of homoplasy, at least on the molecular level. Conflicting hypotheses about early nervous system evolution are due primarily to differences in the interpretation of this homoplasy. We highlight the need for explicit discussion of assumptions and discuss the limitations of current approaches for inferring ancient phenotypic states. PMID:26746806

  12. Dual-phase evolution in complex adaptive systems

    PubMed Central

    Paperin, Greg; Green, David G.; Sadedin, Suzanne

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the origins of complexity is a key challenge in many sciences. Although networks are known to underlie most systems, showing how they contribute to well-known phenomena remains an issue. Here, we show that recurrent phase transitions in network connectivity underlie emergent phenomena in many systems. We identify properties that are typical of systems in different connectivity phases, as well as characteristics commonly associated with the phase transitions. We synthesize these common features into a common framework, which we term dual-phase evolution (DPE). Using this framework, we review the literature from several disciplines to show that recurrent connectivity phase transitions underlie the complex properties of many biological, physical and human systems. We argue that the DPE framework helps to explain many complex phenomena, including perpetual novelty, modularity, scale-free networks and criticality. Our review concludes with a discussion of the way DPE relates to other frameworks, in particular, self-organized criticality and the adaptive cycle. PMID:21247947

  13. Complex Homology and the Evolution of Nervous Systems.

    PubMed

    Liebeskind, Benjamin J; Hillis, David M; Zakon, Harold H; Hofmann, Hans A

    2016-02-01

    We examine the complex evolution of animal nervous systems and discuss the ramifications of this complexity for inferring the nature of early animals. Although reconstructing the origins of nervous systems remains a central challenge in biology, and the phenotypic complexity of early animals remains controversial, a compelling picture is emerging. We now know that the nervous system and other key animal innovations contain a large degree of homoplasy, at least on the molecular level. Conflicting hypotheses about early nervous system evolution are due primarily to differences in the interpretation of this homoplasy. We highlight the need for explicit discussion of assumptions and discuss the limitations of current approaches for inferring ancient phenotypic states. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Complexes of minor bodies in the Solar system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terentjeva, A. K.; Barabanov, S. I.

    2011-12-01

    In this paper three complexes of minor bodies in the Solar System are considered. First complex is related with periodic comet Finlay. It includes meteorite Murchison, fall on 1969 September 28 in Australia, fireball stream, five asteroids, comet Haneda-Campos (D/1978 R1), and perhaps, comet Lexell (1770 I) with its family of minor meteor streams.Thea family of comet C/SOHO (2002 V5), consisting of 20 comets, and a large shower of small meteoroids, detected by radar observations (191 orbit), are the second complex of small bodies. The C/SOHO (2001 D1) with two showers of meteoric bodies, found by radar observations (155 orbits) belongs to the third complex of small bodies. The composition of the comet and meteor wide complex also includes a showers of the May Skorpionid with bright meteors and fireballs.

  15. Protein/polysaccharide complexes and coacervates in food systems.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, Christophe; Turgeon, Sylvie L

    2011-09-14

    Since the pioneering work of Bungenberg de Jong and co-workers on gelatin-acacia gum complex coacervation in the 1920-40s, protein/polysaccharide complexes and coacervates have received increasing research interest in order to broaden the possible food applications. This review focuses on the main research streams followed in this field during the last 12 years regarding: i) the parameters influencing the formation of complexes and coacervates in protein-polysaccharide systems; ii) the characterization of the kinetics of phase separation and multi-scale structure of the complexes and coacervates; and iii) the investigation of the functional properties of complexes and coacervates in food applications. This latter section encompasses various technological aspects, namely: the viscosifying and gelling ability, the foaming and emulsifying ability and finally, the stabilization and release of bioactives or sensitive compounds. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Observation-Driven Configuration of Complex Software Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sage, Aled

    2010-06-01

    The ever-increasing complexity of software systems makes them hard to comprehend, predict and tune due to emergent properties and non-deterministic behaviour. Complexity arises from the size of software systems and the wide variety of possible operating environments: the increasing choice of platforms and communication policies leads to ever more complex performance characteristics. In addition, software systems exhibit different behaviour under different workloads. Many software systems are designed to be configurable so that policies can be chosen to meet the needs of various stakeholders. For complex software systems it can be difficult to accurately predict the effects of a change and to know which configuration is most appropriate. This thesis demonstrates that it is useful to run automated experiments that measure a selection of system configurations. Experiments can find configurations that meet the stakeholders' needs, find interesting behavioural characteristics, and help produce predictive models of the system's behaviour. The design and use of ACT (Automated Configuration Tool) for running such experiments is described, in combination a number of search strategies for deciding on the configurations to measure. Design Of Experiments (DOE) is discussed, with emphasis on Taguchi Methods. These statistical methods have been used extensively in manufacturing, but have not previously been used for configuring software systems. The novel contribution here is an industrial case study, applying the combination of ACT and Taguchi Methods to DC-Directory, a product from Data Connection Ltd (DCL). The case study investigated the applicability of Taguchi Methods for configuring complex software systems. Taguchi Methods were found to be useful for modelling and configuring DC- Directory, making them a valuable addition to the techniques available to system administrators and developers.

  17. Demonstration of a Safety Analysis on a Complex System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Alfaro, Liliana; Alvarado, Christine; Brown, Molly; Hunt, Earl B.; Jaffe, Matt; Joslyn, Susan; Pinnell, Denise; Reese, Jon; Samarziya, Jeffrey; Sandys, Sean; Shaw, Alan; Zabinsky, Zelda

    1997-01-01

    For the past 17 years, Professor Leveson and her graduate students have been developing a theoretical foundation for safety in complex systems and building a methodology upon that foundation. The methodology includes special management structures and procedures, system hazard analyses, software hazard analysis, requirements modeling and analysis for completeness and safety, special software design techniques including the design of human-machine interaction, verification, operational feedback, and change analysis. The Safeware methodology is based on system safety techniques that are extended to deal with software and human error. Automation is used to enhance our ability to cope with complex systems. Identification, classification, and evaluation of hazards is done using modeling and analysis. To be effective, the models and analysis tools must consider the hardware, software, and human components in these systems. They also need to include a variety of analysis techniques and orthogonal approaches: There exists no single safety analysis or evaluation technique that can handle all aspects of complex systems. Applying only one or two may make us feel satisfied, but will produce limited results. We report here on a demonstration, performed as part of a contract with NASA Langley Research Center, of the Safeware methodology on the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) portion of the air traffic control (ATC) system and procedures currently employed at the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach CONtrol). CTAS is an automated system to assist controllers in handling arrival traffic in the DFW area. Safety is a system property, not a component property, so our safety analysis considers the entire system and not simply the automated components. Because safety analysis of a complex system is an interdisciplinary effort, our team included system engineers, software engineers, human factors experts, and cognitive psychologists.

  18. Demonstration of a Safety Analysis on a Complex System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Alfaro, Liliana; Alvarado, Christine; Brown, Molly; Hunt, Earl B.; Jaffe, Matt; Joslyn, Susan; Pinnell, Denise; Reese, Jon; Samarziya, Jeffrey; hide

    1997-01-01

    For the past 17 years, Professor Leveson and her graduate students have been developing a theoretical foundation for safety in complex systems and building a methodology upon that foundation. The methodology includes special management structures and procedures, system hazard analyses, software hazard analysis, requirements modeling and analysis for completeness and safety, special software design techniques including the design of human-machine interaction, verification, operational feedback, and change analysis. The Safeware methodology is based on system safety techniques that are extended to deal with software and human error. Automation is used to enhance our ability to cope with complex systems. Identification, classification, and evaluation of hazards is done using modeling and analysis. To be effective, the models and analysis tools must consider the hardware, software, and human components in these systems. They also need to include a variety of analysis techniques and orthogonal approaches: There exists no single safety analysis or evaluation technique that can handle all aspects of complex systems. Applying only one or two may make us feel satisfied, but will produce limited results. We report here on a demonstration, performed as part of a contract with NASA Langley Research Center, of the Safeware methodology on the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) portion of the air traffic control (ATC) system and procedures currently employed at the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach CONtrol). CTAS is an automated system to assist controllers in handling arrival traffic in the DFW area. Safety is a system property, not a component property, so our safety analysis considers the entire system and not simply the automated components. Because safety analysis of a complex system is an interdisciplinary effort, our team included system engineers, software engineers, human factors experts, and cognitive psychologists.

  19. Conceptual Foundations of Systems Biology Explaining Complex Cardiac Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Louridas, George E.; Lourida, Katerina G.

    2017-01-01

    Systems biology is an important concept that connects molecular biology and genomics with computing science, mathematics and engineering. An endeavor is made in this paper to associate basic conceptual ideas of systems biology with clinical medicine. Complex cardiac diseases are clinical phenotypes generated by integration of genetic, molecular and environmental factors. Basic concepts of systems biology like network construction, modular thinking, biological constraints (downward biological direction) and emergence (upward biological direction) could be applied to clinical medicine. Especially, in the field of cardiology, these concepts can be used to explain complex clinical cardiac phenotypes like chronic heart failure and coronary artery disease. Cardiac diseases are biological complex entities which like other biological phenomena can be explained by a systems biology approach. The above powerful biological tools of systems biology can explain robustness growth and stability during disease process from modulation to phenotype. The purpose of the present review paper is to implement systems biology strategy and incorporate some conceptual issues raised by this approach into the clinical field of complex cardiac diseases. Cardiac disease process and progression can be addressed by the holistic realistic approach of systems biology in order to define in better terms earlier diagnosis and more effective therapy. PMID:28230815

  20. Conceptual Foundations of Systems Biology Explaining Complex Cardiac Diseases.

    PubMed

    Louridas, George E; Lourida, Katerina G

    2017-02-21

    Systems biology is an important concept that connects molecular biology and genomics with computing science, mathematics and engineering. An endeavor is made in this paper to associate basic conceptual ideas of systems biology with clinical medicine. Complex cardiac diseases are clinical phenotypes generated by integration of genetic, molecular and environmental factors. Basic concepts of systems biology like network construction, modular thinking, biological constraints (downward biological direction) and emergence (upward biological direction) could be applied to clinical medicine. Especially, in the field of cardiology, these concepts can be used to explain complex clinical cardiac phenotypes like chronic heart failure and coronary artery disease. Cardiac diseases are biological complex entities which like other biological phenomena can be explained by a systems biology approach. The above powerful biological tools of systems biology can explain robustness growth and stability during disease process from modulation to phenotype. The purpose of the present review paper is to implement systems biology strategy and incorporate some conceptual issues raised by this approach into the clinical field of complex cardiac diseases. Cardiac disease process and progression can be addressed by the holistic realistic approach of systems biology in order to define in better terms earlier diagnosis and more effective therapy.

  1. [Limits of deinstitutionalization: experience in England].

    PubMed

    McCrone, P; Becker, T

    2000-09-01

    Psychiatric reform and the current system of mental health care in England are outlined, the system context of the National Health Service (NHS) is described. Recent institutional change in the NHS has introduced internal market elements. More than 90 mental hospitals have been closed. The TAPS study, a longitudinal study evaluating mental hospital closure is described. Results show a range of advantages of the post-discharge care arrangements. Studies evaluating services with a home treatment and community focus (DLP, PRiSM) suggest that community mental health care is feasible. Shortages and problems of the current system of care (acute beds, intensive residential and rehabilitation services) are outlined.

  2. Analysis of complex physiological systems by information flow: a time scale-specific complexity assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoyer, Dirk; Frank, Birgit; Pompe, Bernd; Schmidt, Hendrik; Werdan, Karl; Müller-Werdan, Ursula; Baranowski, Rafal; Zebrowski, Jan J; Meissner, Winfried; Kletzin, Ulf; Adler, Daniela; Adler, Steffen; Blickhan, Reinhard

    2006-07-01

    In the last two decades conventional linear methods for biosignal analysis have been substantially extended by non-stationary, non-linear, and complexity approaches. So far, complexity is usually assessed with regard to one single time scale, disregarding complex physiology organised on different time scales. This shortcoming was overcome and medically evaluated by information flow functions developed in our research group in collaboration with several theoretical, experimental, and clinical partners. In the present work, the information flow is introduced and typical information flow characteristics are demonstrated. The prognostic value of autonomic information flow (AIF), which reflects communication in the cardiovascular system, was shown in patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and in patients with heart failure. Gait information flow (GIF), which reflects communication in the motor control system during walking, was introduced to discriminate between controls and elderly patients suffering from low back pain. The applications presented for the theoretically based approach of information flow confirm its value for the identification of complex physiological systems. The medical relevance has to be confirmed by comprehensive clinical studies. These information flow measures substantially extend the established linear and complexity measures in biosignal analysis.

  3. A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity. PMID:27297496

  4. A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

    2016-06-01

    Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity.

  5. A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions.

    PubMed

    Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

    2016-06-14

    Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity.

  6. Automated Derivation of Complex System Constraints from User Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muery, Kim; Foshee, Mark; Marsh, Angela

    2006-01-01

    International Space Station (ISS) payload developers submit their payload science requirements for the development of on-board execution timelines. The ISS systems required to execute the payload science operations must be represented as constraints for the execution timeline. Payload developers use a software application, User Requirements Collection (URC), to submit their requirements by selecting a simplified representation of ISS system constraints. To fully represent the complex ISS systems, the constraints require a level of detail that is beyond the insight of the payload developer. To provide the complex representation of the ISS system constraints, HOSC operations personnel, specifically the Payload Activity Requirements Coordinators (PARC), manually translate the payload developers simplified constraints into detailed ISS system constraints used for scheduling the payload activities in the Consolidated Planning System (CPS). This paper describes the implementation for a software application, User Requirements Integration (URI), developed to automate the manual ISS constraint translation process.

  7. Stephen Jay Kline on systems, or physics, complex systems, and the gap between.

    SciTech Connect

    Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2011-06-01

    At the end of his life, Stephen Jay Kline, longtime professor of mechanical engineering at Stanford University, completed a book on how to address complex systems. The title of the book is 'Conceptual Foundations of Multi-Disciplinary Thinking' (1995), but the topic of the book is systems. Kline first establishes certain limits that are characteristic of our conscious minds. Kline then establishes a complexity measure for systems and uses that complexity measure to develop a hierarchy of systems. Kline then argues that our minds, due to their characteristic limitations, are unable to model the complex systems in that hierarchy. Computers are of no help to us here. Our attempts at modeling these complex systems are based on the way we successfully model some simple systems, in particular, 'inert, naturally-occurring' objects and processes, such as what is the focus of physics. But complex systems overwhelm such attempts. As a result, the best we can do in working with these complex systems is to use a heuristic, what Kline calls the 'Guideline for Complex Systems.' Kline documents the problems that have developed due to 'oversimple' system models and from the inappropriate application of a system model from one domain to another. One prominent such problem is the Procrustean attempt to make the disciplines that deal with complex systems be 'physics-like.' Physics deals with simple systems, not complex ones, using Kline's complexity measure. The models that physics has developed are inappropriate for complex systems. Kline documents a number of the wasteful and dangerous fallacies of this type.

  8. Developing care pathways--lessons from the Steele Review implementation in England.

    PubMed

    Rooney, Eric

    2014-02-01

    This paper sets out to discuss the concept of care pathways, review their definition, features and implementation and using an example from the NHS dental system in England guide the development of an elder care pathway. Care pathways have developed from quality management approaches in industry and focus on a number of steps which are intended to lead to expected outcomes. The existing definition and descriptors of care pathways serve well, but miss the complex process underlying the development of pathways, their structure, implementation and evaluation. The literature identifies key features of clinical pathways and from the developing field of implementation science, the factors likely to support pathway implementation. Pathways must be generic enough to enable them to be applicable broadly, but specific enough for them to be locally relevant and population specific. The development of care pathways in the National Health Service (NHS) Dental Service in England is described and when compared with the implementation science literature exhibits features identified as positive factors for implementation. As a result a contribution to the pathway definition literature is offered. Learning from the literature and the practical experience described from England, the process for developing dental care pathways for dependent elders should begin with the creation of a high level pathway, which is cognisant of the clinical and implementation science evidence base. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Society. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Changing Landscapes in Safeguarding Babies and Young Children in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lumsden, Eunice

    2014-01-01

    The importance of safeguarding children from violence is internationally recognised. However, detecting, intervening and protecting children from abuse both within the family and in institutions is complex. This paper specifically focuses on safeguarding in England and how workforce reform in the early years offers the opportunity to forge new…

  10. Interactions of platinum metals and their complexes in biological systems.

    PubMed Central

    LeRoy, A F

    1975-01-01

    Platinum-metal oxidation catalysts are to be introduced in exhaust systems of many 1975 model-year automobiles in the U.S. to meet Clean Air Act standards. Small quantities of finely divided catalyst have been found issuing from prototype systems; platinum and palladium compounds may be found also. Although platinum exhibits a remarkable resistance to oxidation and chemical attack, it reacts chemically under some conditions producing coordination complex compounds. Palladium reacts more readily than platinum. Some platinum-metal complexes interact with biological systems as bacteriostatic, bacteriocidal, viricidal, and immunosuppressive agents. Workers chronically exposed to platinum complexes often develop asthma-like respiratory distress and skin reactions called platinosis. Platinum complexes used alone and in combination therapy with other drugs have recently emerged as effective agents in cancer chemotherapy. Understanding toxic and favorable interactions of metal species with living organisms requires basic information on quantities and chemical characteristics of complexes at trace concentrations in biological materials. Some basic chemical kinetic and thermodynamic data are presented to characterize the chemical behavior of the complex cis-[Pt(NH3)2Cl2] used therapeutically. A brief discussion of platinum at manogram levels in biological tissue is discussed. PMID:50943

  11. Interactions of platinum metals and their complexes in biological systems.

    PubMed

    LeRoy, A F

    1975-04-01

    Platinum-metal oxidation catalysts are to be introduced in exhaust systems of many 1975 model-year automobiles in the U.S. to meet Clean Air Act standards. Small quantities of finely divided catalyst have been found issuing from prototype systems; platinum and palladium compounds may be found also. Although platinum exhibits a remarkable resistance to oxidation and chemical attack, it reacts chemically under some conditions producing coordination complex compounds. Palladium reacts more readily than platinum. Some platinum-metal complexes interact with biological systems as bacteriostatic, bacteriocidal, viricidal, and immunosuppressive agents. Workers chronically exposed to platinum complexes often develop asthma-like respiratory distress and skin reactions called platinosis. Platinum complexes used alone and in combination therapy with other drugs have recently emerged as effective agents in cancer chemotherapy. Understanding toxic and favorable interactions of metal species with living organisms requires basic information on quantities and chemical characteristics of complexes at trace concentrations in biological materials. Some basic chemical kinetic and thermodynamic data are presented to characterize the chemical behavior of the complex cis-[Pt(NH3)2Cl2] used therapeutically. A brief discussion of platinum at manogram levels in biological tissue is discussed.

  12. Phase Synchronization in Coupled Complex Systems - From Neuroscience to Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurths, Juergen

    2001-03-01

    The phenomenon of phase synchronization, especially in weakly coupled complex systems will be explained. Next it will be discussed how to identify epochs of phase synchronization in noisy data. In the second part I will demonstrate the potential of this approach for some examples from natural systems; in particular for brain and muscle activity of Parkinsonian patients, cardio-respiratory interactions in humans and rats and for a chaotically forced climate system.

  13. Best geoscience approach to complex systems in environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mezemate, Yacine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    The environment is a social issue that continues to grow in importance. Its complexity, both cross-disciplinary and multi-scale, has given rise to a large number of scientific and technological locks, that complex systems approaches can solve. Significant challenges must met to achieve the understanding of the environmental complexes systems. There study should proceed in some steps in which the use of data and models is crucial: - Exploration, observation and basic data acquisition - Identification of correlations, patterns, and mechanisms - Modelling - Model validation, implementation and prediction - Construction of a theory Since the e-learning becomes a powerful tool for knowledge and best practice shearing, we use it to teach the environmental complexities and systems. In this presentation we promote the e-learning course dedicated for a large public (undergraduates, graduates, PhD students and young scientists) which gather and puts in coherence different pedagogical materials of complex systems and environmental studies. This course describes a complex processes using numerous illustrations, examples and tests that make it "easy to enjoy" learning process. For the seek of simplicity, the course is divided in different modules and at the end of each module a set of exercises and program codes are proposed for a best practice. The graphical user interface (GUI) which is constructed using an open source Opale Scenari offers a simple navigation through the different module. The course treats the complex systems that can be found in environment and their observables, we particularly highlight the extreme variability of these observables over a wide range of scales. Using the multifractal formalism through different applications (turbulence, precipitation, hydrology) we demonstrate how such extreme variability of the geophysical/biological fields should be used solving everyday (geo-)environmental chalenges.

  14. Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

    PubMed

    Sulis, William H

    2017-10-01

    Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

  15. State analysis requirements database for engineering complex embedded systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bennett, Matthew B.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Ingham, Michel D.

    2004-01-01

    It has become clear that spacecraft system complexity is reaching a threshold where customary methods of control are no longer affordable or sufficiently reliable. At the heart of this problem are the conventional approaches to systems and software engineering based on subsystem-level functional decomposition, which fail to scale in the tangled web of interactions typically encountered in complex spacecraft designs. Furthermore, there is a fundamental gap between the requirements on software specified by systems engineers and the implementation of these requirements by software engineers. Software engineers must perform the translation of requirements into software code, hoping to accurately capture the systems engineer's understanding of the system behavior, which is not always explicitly specified. This gap opens up the possibility for misinterpretation of the systems engineer's intent, potentially leading to software errors. This problem is addressed by a systems engineering tool called the State Analysis Database, which provides a tool for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models. This paper describes how requirements for complex aerospace systems can be developed using the State Analysis Database.

  16. State analysis requirements database for engineering complex embedded systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bennett, Matthew B.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Ingham, Michel D.

    2004-01-01

    It has become clear that spacecraft system complexity is reaching a threshold where customary methods of control are no longer affordable or sufficiently reliable. At the heart of this problem are the conventional approaches to systems and software engineering based on subsystem-level functional decomposition, which fail to scale in the tangled web of interactions typically encountered in complex spacecraft designs. Furthermore, there is a fundamental gap between the requirements on software specified by systems engineers and the implementation of these requirements by software engineers. Software engineers must perform the translation of requirements into software code, hoping to accurately capture the systems engineer's understanding of the system behavior, which is not always explicitly specified. This gap opens up the possibility for misinterpretation of the systems engineer's intent, potentially leading to software errors. This problem is addressed by a systems engineering tool called the State Analysis Database, which provides a tool for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models. This paper describes how requirements for complex aerospace systems can be developed using the State Analysis Database.

  17. Generating requirements for complex embedded systems using State Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ingham, Michel D.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Bennett, Matthew B.; Moncada, Alex C.

    2006-06-01

    It has become clear that spacecraft system complexity is reaching a threshold where customary methods of control are no longer affordable or sufficiently reliable. At the heart of this problem are the conventional approaches to systems and software engineering based on subsystem-level functional decomposition, which fail to scale in the tangled web of interactions typically encountered in complex spacecraft designs. Furthermore, there is a fundamental gap between the requirements on software specified by systems engineers and the implementation of these requirements by software engineers. Software engineers must perform the translation of requirements into software code, hoping to accurately capture the systems engineer's understanding of the system behavior, which is not always explicitly specified. This gap opens up the possibility for misinterpretation of the systems engineer's intent, potentially leading to software errors. This problem is addressed by a systems engineering methodology called State Analysis, which provides a process for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models. This paper describes how requirements for complex aerospace systems can be developed using State Analysis, using representative spacecraft examples.

  18. Governance of complex systems: results of a sociological simulation experiment.

    PubMed

    Adelt, Fabian; Weyer, Johannes; Fink, Robin D

    2014-01-01

    Social sciences have discussed the governance of complex systems for a long time. The following paper tackles the issue by means of experimental sociology, in order to investigate the performance of different modes of governance empirically. The simulation framework developed is based on Esser's model of sociological explanation as well as on Kroneberg's model of frame selection. The performance of governance has been measured by means of three macro and two micro indicators. Surprisingly, central control mostly performs better than decentralised coordination. However, results not only depend on the mode of governance, but there is also a relation between performance and the composition of actor populations, which has yet not been investigated sufficiently. Practitioner Summary: Practitioners can gain insights into the functioning of complex systems and learn how to better manage them. Additionally, they are provided with indicators to measure the performance of complex systems.

  19. Solution of generalized shifted linear systems with complex symmetric matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sogabe, Tomohiro; Hoshi, Takeo; Zhang, Shao-Liang; Fujiwara, Takeo

    2012-07-01

    We develop the shifted COCG method [R. Takayama, T. Hoshi, T. Sogabe, S.-L. Zhang, T. Fujiwara, Linear algebraic calculation of Green's function for large-scale electronic structure theory, Phys. Rev. B 73 (165108) (2006) 1-9] and the shifted WQMR method [T. Sogabe, T. Hoshi, S.-L. Zhang, T. Fujiwara, On a weighted quasi-residual minimization strategy of the QMR method for solving complex symmetric shifted linear systems, Electron. Trans. Numer. Anal. 31 (2008) 126-140] for solving generalized shifted linear systems with complex symmetric matrices that arise from the electronic structure theory. The complex symmetric Lanczos process with a suitable bilinear form plays an important role in the development of the methods. The numerical examples indicate that the methods are highly attractive when the inner linear systems can efficiently be solved.

  20. Exploiting sparsity and equation-free architectures in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Proctor, J. L.; Brunton, S. L.; Brunton, B. W.; Kutz, J. N.

    2014-12-01

    Complex systems exhibit dynamics that typically evolve on low-dimensional attractors and may have sparse representation in some optimal basis. Recently developed compressive sensing techniques exploit this sparsity for state reconstruction and/or categorical identification from limited measurements. We argue that data-driven dimensionality reduction methods integrate naturally with sparse sensing in the context of complex systems. This framework works equally well with a physical model or in an equation-free context, where data is available but the governing equations may be unknown. We demonstrate the advantages of combining these methods on three prototypical examples: classification of dynamical regimes, optimal sensor placement, and equation-free dynamic model reduction. These examples motivate the potentially transformative role that state-of-the-art data methods and machine learning can play in the analysis of complex systems.

  1. Agent Technology, Complex Adaptive Systems, and Autonomic Systems: Their Relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James; Rouff, Chistopher; Hincheny, Mike

    2004-01-01

    To reduce the cost of future spaceflight missions and to perform new science, NASA has been investigating autonomous ground and space flight systems. These goals of cost reduction have been further complicated by nanosatellites for future science data-gathering which will have large communications delays and at times be out of contact with ground control for extended periods of time. This paper describes two prototype agent-based systems, the Lights-out Ground Operations System (LOGOS) and the Agent Concept Testbed (ACT), and their autonomic properties that were developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to demonstrate autonomous operations of future space flight missions. The paper discusses the architecture of the two agent-based systems, operational scenarios of both, and the two systems autonomic properties.

  2. Lessons from Jurassic Park: patients as complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Katerndahl, David A

    2009-08-01

    With realization that non-linearity is generally the rule rather than the exception in nature, viewing patients and families as complex adaptive systems may lead to a better understanding of health and illness. Doctors who successfully practise the 'art' of medicine may recognize non-linear principles at work without having the jargon needed to label them. Complex adaptive systems are systems composed of multiple components that display complexity and adaptation to input. These systems consist of self-organized components, which display complex dynamics, ranging from simple periodicity to chaotic and random patterns showing trends over time. Understanding the non-linear dynamics of phenomena both internal and external to our patients can (1) improve our definition of 'health'; (2) improve our understanding of patients, disease and the systems in which they converge; (3) be applied to future monitoring systems; and (4) be used to possibly engineer change. Such a non-linear view of the world is quite congruent with the generalist perspective.

  3. Model Analysis of Complex Systems Behavior using MADS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; O'Malley, D.

    2016-12-01

    Evaluation of robustness (reliability) of model predictions is challenging for models representing complex system behavior. Frequently in science and engineering applications related to complex systems, several alternative physics models may describe the available data equally well and are physically reasonable based on the available conceptual understanding. However, these alternative models could give very different predictions about the future states of the analyzed system. Furthermore, in the case of complex systems, we often must do modeling with an incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes and model parameters. The analyses of model predictions representing complex system behavior are particularly challenging when we are quantifying uncertainties of rare events in the model prediction space that can have major consequences (also called "black swans"). These types of analyses are also computationally challenging. Here, we demonstrate the application of a general high-performance computational tool for Model Analysis & Decision Support (MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) which can be applied to perform analyses using any external physics or systems model. The coupling between MADS and the external model can be performed using different methods. MADS is implemented in Julia, a high-level, high-performance dynamic programming language for technical computing (http://mads.lanl.gov/, https://github.com/madsjulia/Mads.jl, http://mads.readthedocs.org). MADS has been applied to perform analyses for environmental-management and water-energy-food nexus problems. To demonstrate MADS capabilities and functionalities, we analyze a series of synthetic problems consistent with actual real-world problems.

  4. Complex systems dynamics in aging: new evidence, continuing questions.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Alan A

    2016-02-01

    There have long been suggestions that aging is tightly linked to the complex dynamics of the physiological systems that maintain homeostasis, and in particular to dysregulation of regulatory networks of molecules. This review synthesizes recent work that is starting to provide evidence for the importance of such complex systems dynamics in aging. There is now clear evidence that physiological dysregulation--the gradual breakdown in the capacity of complex regulatory networks to maintain homeostasis--is an emergent property of these regulatory networks, and that it plays an important role in aging. It can be measured simply using small numbers of biomarkers. Additionally, there are indications of the importance during aging of emergent physiological processes, functional processes that cannot be easily understood through clear metabolic pathways, but can nonetheless be precisely quantified and studied. The overall role of such complex systems dynamics in aging remains an important open question, and to understand it future studies will need to distinguish and integrate related aspects of aging research, including multi-factorial theories of aging, systems biology, bioinformatics, network approaches, robustness, and loss of complexity.

  5. Biology and Nonequilibrium: Remarks on a Paper by J.L. England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruelle, D.

    2015-07-01

    This note analyzes the physical basis of J.R. England's paper "Statistical physics of self-replication." [J. Chem. Phys. 139, 121923 (2013)]. We follow England's use of time-reversal symmetry but replace stochastic by deterministic dynamics, and introduce a definition of metastable states based on equilibrium statistical mechanics. We rederive England's detailed balance relation and obtain another similar relation which appears more natural and remains valid for quantum systems. The detailed balance relations are based on serious physical ideas, and either of them can be used for England's biological discussion. This biological discussion does of course deserve further scrutiny. This article is supplemented with comments by P. Gaspard.

  6. Balancing Management and Leadership in Complex Health Systems

    PubMed Central

    Kwamie, Aku

    2015-01-01

    Health systems, particularly those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), need stronger management and leadership capacities. Management and leadership are not synonymous, yet should be considered together as there can be too much of one and not enough of the other. In complex adaptive health systems, the multiple interactions and relationships between people and elements of the system mean that management and leadership, so often treated as domains of the individual, are additionally systemic phenomena, emerging from these relational interactions. This brief commentary notes some significant implications for how we can support capacity strengthening interventions for complex management and leadership. These would necessarily move away from competency-based models focused on training for individuals, and would rather encompass longer-term initiatives explicitly focused on systemic goals of accountability, innovation, and learning. PMID:26673472

  7. Emergent “Quantum” Theory in Complex Adaptive Systems

    PubMed Central

    Minic, Djordje; Pajevic, Sinisa

    2017-01-01

    Motivated by the question of stability, in this letter we argue that an effective quantum-like theory can emerge in complex adaptive systems. In the concrete example of stochastic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, the relevant effective “Planck constant” associated with such emergent “quantum” theory has the dimensions of the square of the unit of time. Such an emergent quantum-like theory has inherently non-classical stability as well as coherent properties that are not, in principle, endangered by thermal fluctuations and therefore might be of crucial importance in complex adaptive systems. PMID:28890591

  8. Emergent “quantum” theory in complex adaptive systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minic, Djordje; Pajevic, Sinisa

    2016-03-01

    Motivated by the question of stability, in this paper we argue that an effective quantum-like theory can emerge in complex adaptive systems. In the concrete example of stochastic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, the relevant effective “Planck constant” associated with such emergent “quantum” theory has the dimensions of the square of the unit of time. Such an emergent quantum-like theory has inherently nonclassical stability as well as coherent properties that are not, in principle, endangered by thermal fluctuations and therefore might be of crucial importance in complex adaptive systems.

  9. Sustained User Engagement in Health Information Technology: The Long Road from Implementation to System Optimization of Computerized Physician Order Entry and Clinical Decision Support Systems for Prescribing in Hospitals in England.

    PubMed

    Cresswell, Kathrin M; Lee, Lisa; Mozaffar, Hajar; Williams, Robin; Sheikh, Aziz

    2017-10-01

    To explore and understand approaches to user engagement through investigating the range of ways in which health care workers and organizations accommodated the introduction of computerized physician order entry (CPOE) and computerized decision support (CDS) for hospital prescribing. Six hospitals in England, United Kingdom. Qualitative case study. We undertook qualitative semi-structured interviews, non-participant observations of meetings and system use, and collected organizational documents over three time periods from six hospitals. Thematic analysis was initially undertaken within individual cases, followed by cross-case comparisons. We conducted 173 interviews, conducted 24 observations, and collected 17 documents between 2011 and 2015. We found that perceived individual and safety benefits among different user groups tended to facilitate engagement in some, while other less engaged groups developed resistance and unsanctioned workarounds if systems were perceived to be inadequate. We identified both the opportunity and need for sustained engagement across user groups around system enhancement (e.g., through customizing software) and the development of user competencies and effective use. There is an urgent need to move away from an episodic view of engagement focused on the preimplementation phase, to more continuous holistic attempts to engage with and respond to end-users. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  10. IUTAM Symposium and NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Interpretation of Time Series from Nonlinear Mechanical Systems Held in Coventry, England on 26-30 August 1991. Conference Abstracts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-08-01

    this crossing is then regarded as the correct estimate of the correlation exponent. The program operates in two options. In local option, the state...chosen location. Time delay is chosen as the first zero crossing of the signal autocorrelation function. Estimated value of the correlation exponent...in the analysis of a complex system. For this reason, the estimation of the correlation dimension of a supposed attractor represented in a time series

  11. Defining geo-habitats for groundwater ecosystem assessments: an example from England and Wales (UK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weitowitz, Damiano C.; Maurice, Louise; Lewis, Melinda; Bloomfield, John P.; Reiss, Julia; Robertson, Anne L.

    2017-07-01

    Groundwater ecosystems comprising micro-organisms and metazoans provide an important contribution to global biodiversity. Their complexity depends on geology, which determines the physical habitat available, and the chemical conditions within it. Despite this, methods of classifying groundwater habitats using geological data are not well established and researchers have called for higher resolution habitat frameworks. A novel habitat typology for England and Wales (UK) is proposed, which distinguishes 11 geological habitats (geo-habitats) on hydrogeological principles and maps their distribution. Hydrogeological and hydrochemical data are used to determine the characteristics of each geo-habitat, and demonstrate their differences. Using these abiotic parameters, a new method to determine abiotic habitat quality is then developed. The geo-habitats had significantly different characteristics, validating the classification system. All geo-habitats were highly heterogeneous, containing both high quality habitat patches that are likely to be suitable for fauna, and areas of low quality that may limit faunal distributions. Karstic and porous habitats generally were higher quality than fractured habitats. Overall, 70% of England and Wales are covered by lower quality fractured habitats, with only 13% covered by higher quality habitats. The main areas of high quality habitats occur in central England as north-south trending belts, possibly facilitating dispersal along this axis. They are separated by low quality geo-habitats that may prevent east-west dispersal of fauna. In south-west England and Wales suitable geo-habitats occur as small isolated patches. Overall, this paper provides a new national-scale typology that is adaptable for studies in other geographic areas.

  12. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000.

    PubMed

    Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí A; Stott, Peter A; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno G J; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles R

    2011-02-17

    Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

  13. Introduction to Focus Issue: Complex network perspectives on flow systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Reik V.; Hernández-García, Emilio; Ser-Giacomi, Enrico

    2017-03-01

    During the last few years, complex network approaches have demonstrated their great potentials as versatile tools for exploring the structural as well as dynamical properties of dynamical systems from a variety of different fields. Among others, recent successful examples include (i) functional (correlation) network approaches to infer hidden statistical interrelationships between macroscopic regions of the human brain or the Earth's climate system, (ii) Lagrangian flow networks allowing to trace dynamically relevant fluid-flow structures in atmosphere, ocean or, more general, the phase space of complex systems, and (iii) time series networks unveiling fundamental organization principles of dynamical systems. In this spirit, complex network approaches have proven useful for data-driven learning of dynamical processes (like those acting within and between sub-components of the Earth's climate system) that are hidden to other analysis techniques. This Focus Issue presents a collection of contributions addressing the description of flows and associated transport processes from the network point of view and its relationship to other approaches which deal with fluid transport and mixing and/or use complex network techniques.

  14. Managing Programmatic Risk for Complex Space System Developments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Panetta, Peter V.; Hastings, Daniel; Brumfield, Mark (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Risk management strategies have become a recent important research topic to many aerospace organizations as they prepare to develop the revolutionary complex space systems of the future. Future multi-disciplinary complex space systems will make it absolutely essential for organizations to practice a rigorous, comprehensive risk management process, emphasizing thorough systems engineering principles to succeed. Project managers must possess strong leadership skills to direct high quality, cross-disciplinary teams for successfully developing revolutionary space systems that are ever increasing in complexity. Proactive efforts to reduce or eliminate risk throughout a project's lifecycle ideally must be practiced by all technical members in the organization. This paper discusses some of the risk management perspectives that were collected from senior managers and project managers of aerospace and aeronautical organizations by the use of interviews and surveys. Some of the programmatic risks which drive the success or failure of projects are revealed. Key findings lead to a number of insights for organizations to consider for proactively approaching the risks which face current and future complex space systems projects.

  15. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

  16. Refined scale-dependent permutation entropy to analyze systems complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shuen-De; Wu, Chiu-Wen; Humeau-Heurtier, Anne

    2016-05-01

    Multiscale entropy (MSE) has become a prevailing method to quantify the complexity of systems. Unfortunately, MSE has a temporal complexity in O(N2) , which is unrealistic for long time series. Moreover, MSE relies on the sample entropy computation which is length-dependent and which leads to large variance and possible undefined entropy values for short time series. Here, we propose and introduce a new multiscale complexity measure, the refined scale-dependent permutation entropy (RSDPE). Through the processing of different kinds of synthetic data and real signals, we show that RSDPE has a behavior close to the one of MSE. Furthermore, RSDPE has a temporal complexity in O(N) . Finally, RSDPE has the advantage of being much less length-dependent than MSE. From all this, we conclude that RSDPE over-performs MSE in terms of computational cost and computational accuracy.

  17. Non-metallocene organometallic complexes and related methods and systems

    DOEpatents

    Agapie, Theodor; Golisz, Suzanne Rose; Tofan, Daniel; Bercaw, John E.

    2010-12-07

    A non-metallocene organometallic complex comprising a tridentate ligand and a metal bonded to a tridentate ligand, wherein two substituted aryl groups in the tridentate ligand are connected to a cyclic group at the ortho position via semi-rigid ring-ring linkages, and selected so to provide the resulting non-metallocene organometallic complex with a C.sub.S geometry, a C.sub.1 geometry, a C.sub.2 geometry or a C.sub.2v geometry. Method for performing olefin polymerization with a non-metallocene organometallic complex as a catalyst, related catalytic systems, tridentate ligand and method for providing a non-metallocene organometallic complex.

  18. Understanding global health governance as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Hill, Peter S

    2011-01-01

    The transition from international to global health reflects the rapid growth in the numbers and nature of stakeholders in health, as well as the constant change embodied in the process of globalisation itself. This paper argues that global health governance shares the characteristics of complex adaptive systems, with its multiple and diverse players, and their polyvalent and constantly evolving relationships, and rich and dynamic interactions. The sheer quantum of initiatives, the multiple networks through which stakeholders (re)configure their influence, the range of contexts in which development for health is played out - all compound the complexity of this system. This paper maps out the characteristics of complex adaptive systems as they apply to global health governance, linking them to developments in the past two decades, and the multiple responses to these changes. Examining global health governance through the frame of complexity theory offers insight into the current dynamics of governance, and while providing a framework for making meaning of the whole, opens up ways of accessing this complexity through local points of engagement.

  19. Systemic Risk and Complex Systems: A Graph-Theory Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lautier, Delphine; Raynaud, Franck

    This chapter summarizes several empirical studies in finance, undertaken through the prism of the graph theory. In these studies, we built graphs in order to investigate integration and systemic risk in derivative markets. Several classes of underlying assets (i.e. energy products, metals, financial assets, agricultural products) are considered, on a twelve-year period. In such a high dimensional analysis, the graph theory enables us to understand the dynamic behavior of our price system. The dimension of the fully connected graph being high, we rely on a specific type of graphs: Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs). Such a tree is especially interesting for the study of systemic risk: it can be assimilated into the shortest and most probable path for the propagation of a price shock. We first examine the topology of the MSTs. Then, given the time dependency of our correlation-based graphs, we study their evolution over time and their stability.

  20. [The dimension of the paradigm of complexity in health systems].

    PubMed

    Fajardo-Ortiz, Guillermo; Fernández-Ortega, Miguel Ángel; Ortiz-Montalvo, Armando; Olivares-Santos, Roberto Antonio

    2015-01-01

    This article presents elements to better understand health systems from the complety paradigm, innovative perspective that offers other ways in the conception of the scientific knowledge prevalent away from linear, characterized by the arise of emerging dissociative and behaviors, based on the intra and trans-disciplinarity concepts such knowledges explain and understand in a different way what happens in the health systems with a view to efficiency and effectiveness. The complexity paradigm means another way of conceptualizing the knowledge, is different from the prevalent epistemology, is still under construction does not separate, not isolated, is not reductionist, or fixed, does not solve the problems, but gives other bases to know them and study them, is a different strategy, a perspective that has basis in the systems theory, informatics and cybernetics beyond traditional knowledge, the positive logics, the newtonian physics and symmetric mathematics, in which everything is centered and balanced, joint the "soft sciences and hard sciences", it has present the Social Determinants of Health and organizational culture. Under the complexity paradigm the health systems are identified with the following concepts: entropy, neguentropy, the thermodynamic second law, attractors, chaos theory, fractals, selfmanagement and self-organization, emerging behaviors, percolation, uncertainty, networks and robusteness; such expressions open new possibilities to improve the management and better understanding of the health systems, giving rise to consider health systems as complex adaptive systems. Copyright © 2015. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A.