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Sample records for england complex systems

  1. International Instructional Systems: How England Measures Up

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creese, Brian; Isaacs, Tina

    2016-01-01

    Although England was not included in the International Instructional Systems Study because it was not a high-performing jurisdiction by the Study's definition, contributors largely were England-based. Analysing the Study's nine overall aspects of instructional systems, this paper finds that England is out of step with many of the high-performing…

  2. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  3. United Kingdom (England): Health system review.

    PubMed

    Boyle, Seán

    2011-01-01

    The Health Systems in Transition (HiT) profiles are country-based reports that provide a detailed description of a health system and of policy initiatives in progress or under development. HiTs examine different approaches to the organization, financing and delivery of health services and the role of the main actors in health systems; describe the institutional framework, process, content and implementation of health and health care policies; and highlight challenges and areas that require more in-depth analysis. Various indicators show that the health of the population has improved over the last few decades. However, inequalities in health across socioeconomic groups have been increasing since the 1970s. The main diseases affecting the population are circulatory diseases, cancer, diseases of the respiratory system and diseases of the digestive system. Risk factors such as the steadily rising levels of alcohol consumption, the sharp increases in adult and child obesity and prevailing smoking levels are among the most pressing public health concerns, particularly as they reflect the growing health inequalities among different socioeconomic groups. Health services in England are largely free at the point of use. The NHS provides preventive medicine, primary care and hospital services to all those ordinarily resident. Over 12% of the population is covered by voluntary health insurance schemes, known in the United Kingdom as private medical insurance (PMI), which mainly provides access to acute elective care in the private sector. Responsibility for publicly funded health care rests with the Secretary of State for Health, supported by the Department of Health. The Department operates at a regional level through 10 strategic health authorities (SHAs), which are responsible for ensuring the quality and performance of local health services within their geographic area. Responsibility for commissioning health services at the local level lies with 151 primary care

  4. Value-Added Measures for Schools in England: Looking inside the "Black Box" of Complex Metrics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Anthony; Downey, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Value-added measures can be used to allocate funding to schools, to identify those institutions in need of special attention and to underpin government guidance on targets. In England, there has been a tendency to include in these measures an ever-greater number of contextualising variables and to develop ever-more complex models that encourage…

  5. Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Goldberger, Ary L.

    2006-01-01

    Physiologic systems in health and disease display an extraordinary range of temporal behaviors and structural patterns that defy understanding based on linear constructs, reductionist strategies, and classical homeostasis. Application of concepts and computational tools derived from the contemporary study of complex systems, including nonlinear dynamics, fractals and “chaos theory,” is having an increasing impact on biology and medicine. This presentation provides a brief overview of an emerging area of biomedical research, including recent applications to cardiopulmonary medicine and chronic obstructive lung disease. PMID:16921107

  6. Racialised Norms in Apprenticeship Systems in England and Germany

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chadderton, Charlotte; Wischmann, Anke

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the issue of the under-representation of young people from minority ethnic/migrant backgrounds in apprenticeships in England and Germany. Whilst there are many studies on apprenticeships in England and Germany, few focus on under-representation or discrimination, even fewer on ethnic under-representation, and there are…

  7. Modelling Trajectories through the Educational System in North West England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penn, Roger; Berridge, Damon

    2008-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and "A"-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS…

  8. Complexity in the new NHS: longitudinal case studies of CCGs in England

    PubMed Central

    Checkland, Katherine; Coleman, Anna; Perkins, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Objective The reform in the English National Health Services (NHS) under the Health and Social Care Act 2012 is unlike previous NHS reorganisations. The establishment of clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) was intended to be ‘bottom up’ with no central blueprint. This paper sets out to offer evidence about how this process has played out in practice and examines the implications of the complexity and variation which emerged. Design Detailed case studies in CCGs across England, using interviews, observation and documentary analysis. Using realist framework, we unpacked the complexity of CCG structures. Setting/participants In phase 1 of the study (January 2011 to September 2012), we conducted 96 interviews, 439 h of observation in a wide variety of meetings, 2 online surveys and 38 follow-up telephone interviews. In phase 2 (April 2013 to March 2015), we conducted 42 interviews with general practitioners (GPs) and managers and observation of 48 different types of meetings. Results Our study has highlighted the complexity inherent in CCGs, arising out of the relatively permissive environment in which they developed. Not only are they very different from one another in size, but also in structure, functions between different bodies and the roles played by GPs. Conclusions The complexity and lack of uniformity of CCGs is important as it makes it difficult for those who must engage with CCGs to know who to approach at what level. This is of increasing importance as CCGs are moving towards greater integration across health and social care. Our study also suggests that there is little consensus as to what being a ‘membership’ organisation means and how it should operate. The lack of uniformity in CCG structure and lack of clarity over the meaning of ‘membership’ raises questions over accountability, which becomes of greater importance as CCG is taking over responsibility for primary care co-commissioning. PMID:26743708

  9. Privatization and Sponsorship: The Re-Agenting of the School System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hatcher, Richard

    2006-01-01

    In this article I use the concept of "re-agenting" to explore and explain the role of non-state agencies, principally private companies and business entrepreneurs, as key instruments in the government's transformation of the school system in England. Their role takes both for-profit and not-for-profit forms. The outsourcing to private…

  10. Rising to the Literacy Challenge: Building Adult Education Systems in New England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liebowitz, Marty; Robins, Amy; Rubin, Jerry

    This document describes a research study of the status of basic adult literacy services in New England, particularly the inadequate link between adult basic education (ABE) and work- force preparation programs. The report describes a system that has failed to adapt to the region's increased need for articulation among English as a Second Language…

  11. The Dark Figure of Infanticide in England and Wales: Complexities of Diagnosis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookman, Fiona; Nolan, Jane

    2006-01-01

    Infants aged younger than 12 months have the highest homicide victimization rate of any single age group in England and Wales. In addition, there are good grounds for believing that the official homicide statistics for this particular age group are an underestimate and subject to distortion. At the same time there is evidence mounting in the…

  12. The Complex Determinants of School Intake Characteristics and Segregation, England 1989 to 2014

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The extent of between-school segregation, or clustering of disadvantaged students within schools, in England varies depending on the indicator of interest. For example, the trend over time for segregation by student poverty differs from those for ethnicity or special educational need. Additionally the causes of the level of segregation for any…

  13. Product Diversity and Spectrum of Choice in Hospital ePrescribing Systems in England

    PubMed Central

    Mozaffar, Hajar; Williams, Robin; Cresswell, Kathrin; Morison, Zoe; Slee, Ann; Team, Aziz Sheikh; Coleman, Jamie; Bates, David W.; Robertson, Ann; Avery, Tony; Blake, Laurence; Chuter, Antony; Slight, Sarah P.; Girling, Alan; Lee, Lisa; Lilford, Richard; McCloughan, Lucy; Schofield, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Background ePrescribing systems have considerable potential for improving healthcare quality and safety. With growing expectations about the benefits of such systems, there is evidence of widespread plans to implement these systems in hospitals in England where hitherto they have had a low uptake. Given the international drive away from developing home-grown to systems to procuring commercial applications, we aimed to identify available ePrescribing systems in England and to use the findings to develop a taxonomy of the systems offered by suppliers. Methods and Findings We undertook a scoping review of the published and grey literature, and conducted expert interviews with vendors, healthcare organisations and national ePrescribing experts in order to identify the spectrum of available systems, identify and map their key features, and then iteratively develop and validate a taxonomy of commercial ePrescribing systems available to English hospitals. There is a wide range of available systems including 13 hospital-wide applications and a range of specialty systems. These commercial applications can be grouped into four sub-categories: standalone systems, modules within integrated systems, functionalities spread over several modules, and specialty systems. The findings also reveal that apart from four packaged applications (two of which are specialty systems), all other systems have none or less than two live implementations across England. Conclusions The wide range of products developed in the last few years by different national and international suppliers, and the low uptake of these products by English hospitals indicate that the English ePrescribing market is still in its infancy. This market is undergoing rapid cycles of change, both with respect to the number of suppliers and their diversity of offerings. Constant renewal of knowledge is needed on the status of this evolving market, encompassing the products development and adoption, to assist implementation

  14. Complexation of Optoelectronic Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boreisho, A. S.; Il‧in, M. Yu.; Konyaev, M. A.; Mikhailenko, A. S.; Morozov, A. V.; Strakhov, S. Yu.

    2016-05-01

    Problems of increasing the efficiency and the functionality of complex optoelectronic systems for monitoring real atmospheric conditions and of their use are discussed. It is shown by the example of a meteorological complex comprising an infrared wind-sensing lidar and an X-range Doppler radar that the complexation of probing systems working in different electromagnetic-radiation ranges opens up new opportunities for determining the meteorological parameters of a turbulent atmosphere and investigating the interaction of radiation with it.

  15. User's Manual for the New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Horn, Marilee A.

    2003-01-01

    Water is used in a variety of ways that need to be understood for effective management of water resources. Water-use activities need to be categorized and included in a database management system to understand current water uses and to provide information to water-resource management policy decisionmakers. The New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS) is a complex database developed to store water-use information that allows water to be tracked from a point of water-use activity (called a 'Site'), such as withdrawal from a resource (reservoir or aquifer), to a second Site, such as distribution to a user (business or irrigator). NEWUDS conceptual model consists of 10 core entities: system, owner, address, location, site, data source, resource, conveyance, transaction/rate, and alias, with tables available to store user-defined details. Three components--site (with both a From Site and a To Site), a conveyance that connects them, and a transaction/rate associated with the movement of water over a specific time interval form the core of the basic NEWUDS network model. The most important step in correctly translating real-world water-use activities into a storable format in NEWUDS depends on choosing the appropriate sites and linking them correctly in a network to model the flow of water from the initial From Site to the final To Site. Ten water-use networks representing real-world activities are described--three withdrawal networks, three return networks, two user networks, two complex community-system networks. Ten case studies of water use, one for each network, also are included in this manual to illustrate how to compile, store, and retrieve the appropriate data. The sequence of data entry into tables is critical because there are many foreign keys. The recommended core entity sequence is (1) system, (2) owner, (3) address, (4) location, (5) site, (6) data source, (7) resource, (8) conveyance, (9) transaction, and (10) rate; with (11) alias and (12) user

  16. COMPLEXITY IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The enormous complexity of ecosystems is generally obvious under even the most cursory examination. In the modern world, this complexity is further augmented by the linkage of ecosystems to economic and social systems through the human use of the environment for technological pu...

  17. Complexity: against systems.

    PubMed

    Chu, Dominique

    2011-09-01

    This article assumes a specific intuitive notion of complexity as a difficulty to generate and/or assess the plausibility of models. Based on this intuitive understanding of complexity, it identifies two main causes of complexity, namely, radical openness and contextuality. The former is the idea that there are no natural systems. The modeler always needs to draw artificial boundaries around phenomena to generate feasible models. Contextuality is intimately connected to the requirement to simplify models and to leave out most aspects. Complexity occurs when contextuality and radical openness cannot be contained that is when it is not clear where the boundaries of the system are and which abstractions are the correct ones. This concept of complexity is illustrated using a number of example from evolution.

  18. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the pig health monitoring systems used in England.

    PubMed

    Stärk, K D C; Nevel, A

    2009-10-17

    Several systems are being used in England to record information about the health of pigs. The British Pig Health Scheme (BPHS), the National Animal Disease Information System (NADIS), the Zoonoses Action Plan (ZAP) for Salmonella and the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) system have been assessed to make recommendations for their future separate or joint development. The structure, organisation, processes, data quality, dissemination, utilisation and acceptance of each system have been assessed. Information was extracted from documents and websites, and informal interviews were conducted with technical experts and stakeholders. The systems covered a broad range of objectives, used variable approaches and operated at very different scales and budgets. There was a high level of awareness and involvement by the industry. Common weaknesses of the systems were the lack of in-depth quantitative analysis of the data, the lack of assessment of each system's impact, and the unknown level of bias as a result of the voluntary or selective participation in them.

  19. Complexity, Systems, and Software

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-14

    2014 Carnegie Mellon University Complexity, Systems, and Software Software Engineering Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA...NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Software Engineering Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 8...for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States

  20. Managing Complex Dynamical Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, John C.; Webster, Robert L.; Curry, Jeanie A.; Hammond, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Management commonly engages in a variety of research designed to provide insight into the motivation and relationships of individuals, departments, organizations, etc. This paper demonstrates how the application of concepts associated with the analysis of complex systems applied to such data sets can yield enhanced insights for managerial action.

  1. Mesozoic igneous intrusions in New England and Quebec: Implications from lead (Pb) isotopes on petrogenesis and mantle sources (Ascutney Mountain, Vermont; Mont Saint Hilaire, Quebec; Pliny Complex, New Hampshire)

    SciTech Connect

    Schucker, D.E.

    1992-01-01

    Lead isotopes are used to study Mesozoic intrusions from New England and Quebec, specifically the igneous complexes of Ascutney Mountain (Vermont), Mont Saint Hilaire (Quebec), and Pliny (New Hampshire). The main objectives are to address the: (1) petrogenesis of specific complexes using Pb isotopes along with previous results; and (2) sources of parental magmas in the context of a possible plume source for the Cretaceous intrusions and New England Seamounts. Analytical procedures for Pb and U are also described in detail. For each of the three complexes, significant variation in apparent initial [sup 208]Pb/[sup 204]Pb, [sup 207]Pb/[sup 204]Pb, and [sup 206]Pb/[sup 204]Pb ratios are observed. These variations reflect crustal contamination and local country rocks are isotopically suitable contaminants. Contamination lowers the Pb isotopic ratios of the modified magmas. The Pb ratios of the parental magmas are constrained by defining trends resulting from crustal contamination. At the Ascutney complex, granites appear to be uniform at the time of formation based on feldspar results. Granite whole rocks exhibit open system U-Pb behavior which is attributed to significant recent U loss (of up to 38%). Both local schists and gneisses are important contaminants with generally <25% contamination. Significant isotopic variations are apparent at Mont Saint Hilaire where rock-feldspar variations are apparently not in isotopic equilibrium. Feldspars reflect magmatic values and indicate crustal contamination of a parental magma for the Hilaire complex. A limited data set for the Pliny complex suggests a parental magma. The Pb results support a common mantle source for the Cretaceous continental intrusions (Ascutney and Mont Saint Hilaire) and the New England Seamounts. They imply magma from a sublithospheric mantle-plume, and that magmas ascended with little or no lithospheric interaction. The magma source for the Jurassic Pliny complex appears to be different.

  2. Taxonomic review of the Ornithocheirus complex (Pterosauria) from the Cretaceous of England.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Taissa; Kellner, Alexander Wilhelm Armin

    2013-01-01

    Over a decade after the last major review of the Cambridge Greensand pterosaurs, their systematics remains one of the most disputed points in pterosaur taxonomy. Ornithocheiridae is still a wastebasket for fragmentary taxa, and some nomenclatural issues are still a problem. Here, the species from the Cretaceous of England that, at some point, were referred in Ornithocheirus, are reviewed. Investigation of the primary literature confirmed that Criorhynchus should be considered an objective junior synonym of Ornithocheirus. Taxonomic review of more than 30 species known from fragmentary remains showed that 16 of them are undiagnosable (nomina dubia): Palaeornis cliftii, Cimoliornis diomedeus, Pterodactylus compressirostris, Pterodactylus fittoni, Pterodactylus woodwardi, Ornithocheirus brachyrhinus, Ornithocheirus carteri, Ornithocheirus crassidens, Ornithocheirus dentatus, Ornithocheirus enchorhynchus, Ornithocheirus eurygnathus, Ornithocheirus oxyrhinus, Ornithocheirus scaphorhynchus, Ornithocheirus tenuirostris, Ornithocheirus xyphorhynchus, and Pterodactylus sagittirostris. Fourteen species are considered valid, and diagnoses are provided to all of them: Ornithocheirus simus, Lonchodraco giganteus comb. n., Lonchodraco machaerorhynchus comb. n., Lonchodraco(?) microdon comb. n., Coloborhynchus clavirostris, 'Ornithocheirus' capito, Camposipterus nasutus comb. n., Camposipterus(?) sedgwickii comb. n., Camposipterus(?) colorhinus comb. n., Cimoliopterus cuvieri comb. n., 'Ornithocheirus' polyodon, 'Ornithocheirus' platystomus, 'Pterodactylus' daviesii, and 'Ornithocheirus' denticulatus. These species are referred in the genera Ornithocheirus, Lonchodraco gen. n., Coloborhynchus, Cimoliopterus gen. n., and Camposipterus gen. n., but additional genera are probably present, as indicated by the use of single quotation marks throughout the text. A cladistic analysis demonstrates that Anhangueridae lies within a newly recognized clade, here named Anhangueria, which also

  3. Trajectories of Higher Education System Differentiation: Structural Policy-Making and the Impact of Tuition Fees in England and Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCaig, Colin

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the impact of student self-financing systems on inequalities of access to higher education (HE) through comparative analysis of two national systems, those of England and Australia. The analysis of the historical development of HE in each nation identifies a set of comparative global themes: the expansion of HE in response to…

  4. Taxonomic review of the Ornithocheirus complex (Pterosauria) from the Cretaceous of England

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Taissa; Kellner, Alexander Wilhelm Armin

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Over a decade after the last major review of the Cambridge Greensand pterosaurs, their systematics remains one of the most disputed points in pterosaur taxonomy. Ornithocheiridae is still a wastebasket for fragmentary taxa, and some nomenclatural issues are still a problem. Here, the species from the Cretaceous of England that, at some point, were referred in Ornithocheirus, are reviewed. Investigation of the primary literature confirmed that Criorhynchus should be considered an objective junior synonym of Ornithocheirus. Taxonomic review of more than 30 species known from fragmentary remains showed that 16 of them are undiagnosable (nomina dubia): Palaeornis cliftii, Cimoliornis diomedeus, Pterodactylus compressirostris, Pterodactylus fittoni, Pterodactylus woodwardi, Ornithocheirus brachyrhinus, Ornithocheirus carteri, Ornithocheirus crassidens, Ornithocheirus dentatus, Ornithocheirus enchorhynchus, Ornithocheirus eurygnathus, Ornithocheirus oxyrhinus, Ornithocheirus scaphorhynchus, Ornithocheirus tenuirostris, Ornithocheirus xyphorhynchus, and Pterodactylus sagittirostris. Fourteen species are considered valid, and diagnoses are provided to all of them: Ornithocheirus simus, Lonchodraco giganteus comb. n., Lonchodraco machaerorhynchus comb. n., Lonchodraco(?) microdon comb. n., Coloborhynchus clavirostris, ‘Ornithocheirus’ capito, Camposipterus nasutus comb. n., Camposipterus(?) sedgwickii comb. n., Camposipterus(?) colorhinus comb. n., Cimoliopterus cuvieri comb. n., ‘Ornithocheirus’ polyodon, ‘Ornithocheirus’ platystomus, ‘Pterodactylus’ daviesii, and ‘Ornithocheirus’ denticulatus. These species are referred in the genera Ornithocheirus, Lonchodraco gen. n., Coloborhynchus, Cimoliopterus gen. n., and Camposipterus gen. n., but additional genera are probably present, as indicated by the use of single quotation marks throughout the text. A cladistic analysis demonstrates that Anhangueridae lies within a newly recognized clade, here

  5. Deconstructing the Carter Review: Competing Conceptions of Quality in England's "School-Led" System of Initial Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mutton, Trevor; Burn, Katharine; Menter, Ian

    2017-01-01

    The commitment to establish a "school-led" system of teacher education in England, announced by the Coalition Government in 2011 and relentlessly pursued thereafter, represented a radical departure from previous kinds of initial teacher education partnership. While it is entirely consistent with a neoliberal agenda, with its strong…

  6. Ethnic Inequality in Choice-Driven Education Systems: A Longitudinal Study of Performance and Choice in England and Sweden

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Michelle; Jonsson, Jan O.; Rudolphi, Frida

    2012-01-01

    The authors ask whether choice-driven education systems, with comprehensive schools and mass education at the secondary and tertiary level, represented in this article by England and Sweden, provide educational opportunities for ethnic minorities. In studying educational attainment, the authors make a theoretical distinction between mechanisms…

  7. Imagining School Autonomy in High-Performing Education Systems: East Asia as a Source of Policy Referencing in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    You, Yun; Morris, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Education reform is increasingly based on emulating the features of "world-class" systems that top international attainment surveys and, in England specifically, East Asia is referenced as the "inspiration" for their education reforms. However, the extent to which the features identified by the UK Government accord with the…

  8. Competitive Electricity Markets and System Reliability: The Case for New England's Proposed Locational Capacity Market

    SciTech Connect

    Farr, John G.; Felder, Frank A.

    2005-10-01

    Clear evidence exists that the existing wholesale markets in New England are failing to provide sufficient incentives to invest. The ISO-NE LICAP proposal is designed to ensure that New England markets attract sufficient generation resources to protect reliability while being mindful of the added cost burden that it will produce.

  9. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  10. Lessons for major system change: centralization of stroke services in two metropolitan areas of England

    PubMed Central

    Ramsay, Angus; Perry, Catherine; Boaden, Ruth; McKevitt, Christopher; Morris, Stephen; Pursani, Nanik; Rudd, Anthony; Tyrrell, Pippa; Wolfe, Charles; Fulop, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Our aim was to identify the factors influencing the selection of a model of acute stroke service centralization to create fewer high-volume specialist units in two metropolitan areas of England (London and Greater Manchester). It considers the reasons why services were more fully centralized in London than in Greater Manchester. Methods In both areas, we analysed 316 documents and conducted 45 interviews with people leading transformation, service user organizations, providers and commissioners. Inductive and deductive analyses were used to compare the processes underpinning change in each area, with reference to propositions for achieving major system change taken from a realist review of the existing literature (the Best framework), which we critique and develop further. Results In London, system leadership was used to overcome resistance to centralization and align stakeholders to implement a centralized service model. In Greater Manchester, programme leaders relied on achieving change by consensus and, lacking decision-making authority over providers, accommodated rather than challenged resistance by implementing a less radical transformation of services. Conclusions A combination of system (top-down) and distributed (bottom-up) leadership is important in enabling change. System leadership provides the political authority required to coordinate stakeholders and to capitalize on clinical leadership by aligning it with transformation goals. Policy makers should examine how the structures of system authority, with performance management and financial levers, can be employed to coordinate transformation by aligning the disparate interests of providers and commissioners. PMID:26811375

  11. Lost in translation? Theory, policy and practice in systems-based environmental approaches to obesity prevention in the Healthy Towns programme in England.

    PubMed

    Sautkina, Elena; Goodwin, Denise; Jones, Andy; Ogilvie, David; Petticrew, Mark; White, Martin; Cummins, Steven

    2014-09-01

    This paper explores how system-wide approaches to obesity prevention were 'theorised' and translated into practice in the 'Healthy Towns' programme implemented in nine areas in England. Semi-structured interviews with 20 informants, purposively selected to represent national and local programme development, management and delivery were undertaken. Results suggest that informants articulated a theoretical understanding of a system-wide approach to obesity prevention, but simplifying this complex task in the context of uncertainty over programme aims and objectives, and absence of a clear direction from the central government, resulted in local programmes relying on traditional multi-component approaches to programme delivery. The development of clear, practical guidance on implementation should form a central part of future system-wide approaches to obesity prevention.

  12. Diversion of mentally disordered people from the criminal justice system in England and Wales: An overview.

    PubMed

    James, David V

    2010-01-01

    The form that diversion mechanisms take in a given jurisdiction will be influenced both by mental health law and sentencing policies, and by the structure of criminal justice and health care systems. In England and Wales, treatment in hospital in lieu of any other sentence is available as a disposal option following a finding of guilt. In addition, there is a National Health Service, free at the point of delivery, the existence of which creates the potential for a co-ordinated nationwide response to mental disorder within the criminal justice system. In recent years, the National Health Service has taken over the delivery of health care in prisons, including psychiatric services, with the principle being one of equivalence between the quality of health provision provided in the community and that provided in prisons. However, problems within the system dictate that an important place remains for add-on diversion initiatives at courts and police stations, which aim to circumvent some of the delays in dealing with mentally disordered people or to prevent them entering the criminal justice system in the first place. It has been demonstrated that such mechanisms can be highly effective, and a government-sponsored review in 1992 recommended their general adoption. A lack of central co-ordination determined that progress was very slow. A new government-commissioned report in 2009 set out detailed recommendations for reform throughout the system. It laid emphasis on a co-ordinated response at all levels and between all agencies, and placed importance on linking initiatives with community services and with preventative measures, including attention to the effects of social exclusion. Some grounds for optimism exist, although there are particular problems in implementing change at a time of financial austerity.

  13. Researching and Developing Music Provision in Special Schools in England for Children and Young People with Complex Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheng, Evangeline; Ockelford, Adam; Welch, Graham

    2009-01-01

    The House of Commons Select Committee on Education (2006) estimated that around 18% of all pupils in England were categorised as having Special Educational Needs (SEN). "Around 3% of all children (250,000) had a statement of SEN and around 1% of all children were in special schools (90,000) which represent approximately one third of children…

  14. Managing complexity of aerospace systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamaskar, Shashank

    Growing complexity of modern aerospace systems has exposed the limits of conventional systems engineering tools and challenged our ability to design them in a timely and cost effective manner. According to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO), in 2009 nearly half of the defense acquisition programs are expecting 25% or more increase in unit acquisition cost. Increase in technical complexity has been identified as one of the primary drivers behind cost-schedule overruns. Thus to assure the affordability of future aerospace systems, it is increasingly important to develop tools and capabilities for managing their complexity. We propose an approach for managing the complexity of aerospace systems to address this pertinent problem. To this end, we develop a measure that improves upon the state-of-the-art metrics and incorporates key aspects of system complexity. We address the problem of system decomposition by presenting an algorithm for module identification that generates modules to minimize integration complexity. We demonstrate the framework on diverse spacecraft and show the impact of design decisions on integration cost. The measure and the algorithm together help the designer track and manage complexity in different phases of system design. We next investigate how complexity can be used as a decision metric in the model-based design (MBD) paradigm. We propose a framework for complexity enabled design space exploration that introduces the idea of using complexity as a non-traditional design objective. We also incorporate complexity with the component based design paradigm (a sub-field of MBD) and demonstrate it on several case studies. The approach for managing complexity is a small but significant contribution to the vast field of complexity management. We envision our approach being used in concert with a suite of complexity metrics to provide an ability to measure and track complexity through different stages of design and development. This will not

  15. Waves in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Hang

    The theme of this thesis is the study of wave phenomena in complex systems. In particular, the following three topics constitute the foci of my research. The first topic involves the generalization of an electronic transport mechanism commonly observed in disordered media, fluctuation induced tunneling conduction, by considering tunneling through not just insulating potential barriers, but also narrow conducting channels. Here the wave nature of the electron implies that a narrow conduction channel can act as an electronic waveguide, with a cutoff transverse dimension that is half the Fermi wavelength. My research involves the study of electronic transport through finite-length conducting channels with transverse dimensions below the cutoff. Such narrow conduction channel may be physically realized by chains of single conducting atoms, for example. At small voltage bias across the conduction channel, only tunneling transport is possible at zero temperature. But at finite temperatures some of the electrons with energies above the Fermi level can ballistically transport across the channel. By considering both tunneling and thermal activation mechanisms, with thermally-generated (random) voltage bias across the narrow channel, we obtained a temperature-dependent conductivity behavior that is in good agreement with the measured two-lead conductance of RuO2 and IrO2 nanowires. Furthermore, by considering high applied voltage across the nano conduction channels, our model predicts interesting electronic Fabry-Perot behavior whose experimental verification is presently underway. The second topic involves the study of the Hall effect in mesoscopic samples. In particular, we are interested in the possibility of enhancing the Hall effect by nano-patterning samples of 2D electron gas. Through numerical solution of the Schrodinger equation in the presence of a magnetic field, mesoscopic transport behavior is obtained for samples with given geometric patterns of the

  16. Paleozoic orogens in New England, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, P.; Tucker, R.D.; Bradley, D.; Berry, H.N.; Osberg, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Stratigraphy and isotope geochronology in the crystalline core of the Appalachians suggest revised interpretations of the extent, nature and timing of Paleozoic orogens in New England. Five major episodes of magmatism, deformation, and high-grade regional metamorphism are recognized: Taconian (455-442 Ma), Acadian (423-385 Ma), Neo-Acadian (366-350 Ma), Late Pennsylvanian (300-290 Ma) and Alleghanian (280-260 Ma). In the Taconian, the passive margin of Laurentia was subducted below a complex magmatic arc lasting from 480 to 442 Ma, founded in part on continental crust of a Medial New England terrane with possible affinities with Amazonia. Questions about Medial New England involve its coherence as a single plate, and the nature of its underlying crust. The Acadian began in Late Silurian as a collision between the amalgamated Laurentia-Medial New England and outer belts of Composite Avalon along a cryptic suture in coastal Maine, and progressed northwestward to the Connecticut Valley basin by mid-Devonian. Tonalitic-granitic magmatism and up to granulite-facies metamorphism culminated in Early Devonian, possibly tied to lithospheric detachment below the subducting northwestern plate and consequent asthenosphere upwelling. Newly discovered Neo-Acadian Late Devonian to Early Mississippian tonalitic-granitic magmatism, up to granulite-facies metamorphism, and severe deformation in central Massachusetts took place in a plate context poorly understood. Late Pennsylvanian effects include magmatism, metamorphism, and deformation near south New England gneiss domes and the Sebago batholith, and development of the right-lateral Norumbega fault system. Permian Alleghanian effects include penetrative deformation, granitic intrusions and up to sillimanite-grade metamorphism of Pennsylvanian beds in southeastern New England. These last two episodes relate to the arrival of Africa.

  17. Complex Digital Visual Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweeny, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    This article identifies possibilities for data visualization as art educational research practice. The author presents an analysis of the relationship between works of art and digital visual culture, employing aspects of network analysis drawn from the work of Barabási, Newman, and Watts (2006) and Castells (1994). Describing complex network…

  18. Data model and relational database design for the New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tessler, Steven

    2001-01-01

    The New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS) is a database for the storage and retrieval of water-use data. NEWUDS can handle data covering many facets of water use, including (1) tracking various types of water-use activities (withdrawals, returns, transfers, distributions, consumptive-use, wastewater collection, and treatment); (2) the description, classification and location of places and organizations involved in water-use activities; (3) details about measured or estimated volumes of water associated with water-use activities; and (4) information about data sources and water resources associated with water use. In NEWUDS, each water transaction occurs unidirectionally between two site objects, and the sites and conveyances form a water network. The core entities in the NEWUDS model are site, conveyance, transaction/rate, location, and owner. Other important entities include water resources (used for withdrawals and returns), data sources, and aliases. Multiple water-exchange estimates can be stored for individual transactions based on different methods or data sources. Storage of user-defined details is accommodated for several of the main entities. Numerous tables containing classification terms facilitate detailed descriptions of data items and can be used for routine or custom data summarization. NEWUDS handles single-user and aggregate-user water-use data, can be used for large or small water-network projects, and is available as a stand-alone Microsoft? Access database structure. Users can customize and extend the database, link it to other databases, or implement the design in other relational database applications.

  19. [Health: an adaptive complex system].

    PubMed

    Toro-Palacio, Luis Fernando; Ochoa-Jaramillo, Francisco Luis

    2012-02-01

    This article points out the enormous gap that exists between complex thinking of an intellectual nature currently present in our environment, and complex experimental thinking that has facilitated the scientific and technological advances that have radically changed the world. The article suggests that life, human beings, global society, and all that constitutes health be considered as adaptive complex systems. This idea, in turn, prioritizes the adoption of a different approach that seeks to expand understanding. When this rationale is recognized, the principal characteristics and emerging properties of health as an adaptive complex system are sustained, following a care and services delivery model. Finally, some pertinent questions from this perspective are put forward in terms of research, and a series of appraisals are expressed that will hopefully serve to help us understand all that we have become as individuals and as a species. The article proposes that the delivery of health care services be regarded as an adaptive complex system.

  20. Mineralogical Evidence for the Palaeohydrogeological Stability of a Deep Groundwater System in Fractured Rock, in West Cumbria, Northwest England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milodowski, A. E.; Gillespie, M. R.; Chenery, S. R. N.; Naden, J.; Shaw, R. P.

    2014-12-01

    An important requirement of the safety assessment for a geological disposal facility (GDF) for radioactive waste is to be able to demonstrate the long-term chemical stability of the groundwater system at repository depth over the long period of time during which the waste will be a hazard, typically up to one million years. Of particular concern in the UK is the potential for oxidising groundwater to penetrate to repository depth during periods of glaciation, thereby increasing the mobility of some transuranic radionuclides.Between 1990 and 1998, United Kingdom Nirex Limited carried out geological investigations into the suitability of a potential site in the Sellafield area of NW England, for a GDF for L/ILW. As part of these investigations, detailed petrological analysis of fracture mineralisation in 23 deep boreholes identified a complex sequence of mineralisation events referred to as ME1-ME9. The distribution of the ME9 calcite mineralisation correlates closely with present-day groundwater flows. The ME9 calcite has been studied in more detail to understand the evolution of the deep groundwater system. The morphology and growth zoning characteristics of the calcites reflects the groundwater chemistry. Freshwater calcites display c-axis flattened to equant crystals, and are non-ferroan and strongly zoned with Mn-rich and Mn-free bands. Deeper saline-zone calcites display c-axis elongated crystals, with high Mn:Fe and low Mn:Fe growth zones. Calcite in the transition zone between the saline and fresh groundwater display saline-type cores overgrown by freshwater-type calcite, indicating a small depression of the position of the transition zone during the growth of the calcites. Sr isotope ratios and fluid inclusion chemistry confirm a link between ME9 calcite and the present regional groundwater system. Modelling of the oxygen isotope data indicates that some growth zones in the ME9 calcite precipitated from groundwater potentially containing a significant

  1. Challenges in complex systems science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    San Miguel, M.; Johnson, J. H.; Kertesz, J.; Kaski, K.; Díaz-Guilera, A.; MacKay, R. S.; Loreto, V.; Érdi, P.; Helbing, D.

    2012-11-01

    FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda.

  2. Complex systems: physics beyond physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holovatch, Yurij; Kenna, Ralph; Thurner, Stefan

    2017-03-01

    Complex systems are characterised by specific time-dependent interactions among their many constituents. As a consequence they often manifest rich, non-trivial and unexpected behaviour. Examples arise both in the physical and non-physical worlds. The study of complex systems forms a new interdisciplinary research area that cuts across physics, biology, ecology, economics, sociology, and the humanities. In this paper we review the essence of complex systems from a physicists' point of view, and try to clarify what makes them conceptually different from systems that are traditionally studied in physics. Our goal is to demonstrate how the dynamics of such systems may be conceptualised in quantitative and predictive terms by extending notions from statistical physics and how they can often be captured in a framework of co-evolving multiplex network structures. We mention three areas of complex-systems science that are currently studied extensively, the science of cities, dynamics of societies, and the representation of texts as evolutionary objects. We discuss why these areas form complex systems in the above sense. We argue that there exists plenty of new ground for physicists to explore and that methodical and conceptual progress is needed most.

  3. Language Networks as Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Max Kueiming; Ou, Sheue-Jen

    2008-01-01

    Starting in the late eighties, with a growing discontent with analytical methods in science and the growing power of computers, researchers began to study complex systems such as living organisms, evolution of genes, biological systems, brain neural networks, epidemics, ecology, economy, social networks, etc. In the early nineties, the research…

  4. Control principles of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yang-Yu; Barabási, Albert-László

    2016-07-01

    A reflection of our ultimate understanding of a complex system is our ability to control its behavior. Typically, control has multiple prerequisites: it requires an accurate map of the network that governs the interactions between the system's components, a quantitative description of the dynamical laws that govern the temporal behavior of each component, and an ability to influence the state and temporal behavior of a selected subset of the components. With deep roots in dynamical systems and control theory, notions of control and controllability have taken a new life recently in the study of complex networks, inspiring several fundamental questions: What are the control principles of complex systems? How do networks organize themselves to balance control with functionality? To address these questions here recent advances on the controllability and the control of complex networks are reviewed, exploring the intricate interplay between the network topology and dynamical laws. The pertinent mathematical results are matched with empirical findings and applications. Uncovering the control principles of complex systems can help us explore and ultimately understand the fundamental laws that govern their behavior.

  5. 1998 Complex Systems Summer School

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-15

    For the past eleven years a group of institutes, centers, and universities throughout the country have sponsored a summer school in Santa Fe, New Mexico as part of an interdisciplinary effort to promote the understanding of complex systems. The goal of these summer schools is to provide graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and active research scientists with an introduction to the study of complex behavior in mathematical, physical, and living systems. The Center for Nonlinear Studies supported the eleventh in this series of highly successful schools in Santa Fe in June, 1998.

  6. Lectures in Complex Systems (1991)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-08-05

    behavioral phenomena in terms of single synapses and single neurons. It is also interesting that Pavlov , before Lash- ley, was apparently discontent with...the study of complex behavior in mathematical, physical and living systems. The emphasis is ondeveloping techniques to the study of specific systems...Dynamical Behavior of a Pair of Spatially Homogeneous Neural Fields Antonio C. Roque Da Silva Filho 371 A Cellular Automaton to Embed Genetic Search

  7. Physical approach to complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwapień, Jarosław; Drożdż, Stanisław

    2012-06-01

    Typically, complex systems are natural or social systems which consist of a large number of nonlinearly interacting elements. These systems are open, they interchange information or mass with environment and constantly modify their internal structure and patterns of activity in the process of self-organization. As a result, they are flexible and easily adapt to variable external conditions. However, the most striking property of such systems is the existence of emergent phenomena which cannot be simply derived or predicted solely from the knowledge of the systems’ structure and the interactions among their individual elements. This property points to the holistic approaches which require giving parallel descriptions of the same system on different levels of its organization. There is strong evidence-consolidated also in the present review-that different, even apparently disparate complex systems can have astonishingly similar characteristics both in their structure and in their behaviour. One can thus expect the existence of some common, universal laws that govern their properties. Physics methodology proves helpful in addressing many of the related issues. In this review, we advocate some of the computational methods which in our opinion are especially fruitful in extracting information on selected-but at the same time most representative-complex systems like human brain, financial markets and natural language, from the time series representing the observables associated with these systems. The properties we focus on comprise the collective effects and their coexistence with noise, long-range interactions, the interplay between determinism and flexibility in evolution, scale invariance, criticality, multifractality and hierarchical structure. The methods described either originate from “hard” physics-like the random matrix theory-and then were transmitted to other fields of science via the field of complex systems research, or they originated elsewhere but

  8. An American knowledge base in England - Alternate implementations of an expert system flight status monitor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, G. F.; Graves, A. T.; Disbrow, J. D.; Duke, E. L.

    1989-01-01

    A joint activity between the Dryden Flight Research Facility of the NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE) on knowledge-based systems has been agreed. Under the agreement, a flight status monitor knowledge base developed at Ames-Dryden has been implemented using the real-time AI (artificial intelligence) toolkit MUSE, which was developed in the UK. Here, the background to the cooperation is described and the details of the flight status monitor and a prototype MUSE implementation are presented. It is noted that the capabilities of the expert-system flight status monitor to monitor data downlinked from the flight test aircraft and to generate information on the state and health of the system for the test engineers provides increased safety during flight testing of new systems. Furthermore, the expert-system flight status monitor provides the systems engineers with ready access to the large amount of information required to describe a complex aircraft system.

  9. A Combined Kohonen Networks and Complex Networks approach for the analysis of Large Scale Atmospheric Features and River Floods in England and Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conticello, Federico; Cioffi, Francesco; Lall, Upmanu; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Floods and other hydroclimatic extremes may represent specific states of organization of the atmospheric circulation. Given this hypothesis an open question is how best to identify such states, and their space-time persistence. Such a mapping would facilitate a physically meaningful identification of the potential severity, frequency and duration of such events in future climates. With this in view, the link between large scale atmospheric circulation and the extreme floods in Germany and England is investigated by a combined Kohonen Networks and Complex Networks approach. Historical data from 57 streamflow gages in England and 68 in Germany and the Reanalysis Historical Data of the Atmospheric Circulation Fields, bounded from 90W to 70E and from 20N to 80N, are used for the purpose. The common period of record is from 1960 to 2012. A finite number of typical atmospheric configurations of the considered region are identified by using the Kohonen Networks approach. This approach is preceded by the application of the Principal Component Analysis of the selected atmospheric variable; a number of PCs is retained to explain more than the 99% of the variance. Then the historical sequence of the atmospheric fields, by using k-nearest neighbor methods, is transformed into a binary matrix which identifies, at each time step, the atmospheric configuration most similar to one of the typical ones identified by the Kohonen Network. A further binary matrix is constructed by using as a threshold the 99th percentile of the discharge rates. Finally the Event Synchronization method is applied determining synchronization, causality and delay between the extreme floods in each streamflow gage and the associated atmospheric circulation feature. We find that the proposed approach can be useful and effective to identify the most critical atmospheric circulation patterns responsible of the extreme floods and thus to be used as part of a prediction strategy.

  10. Disorder in Complex Human System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akdeniz, K. Gediz

    2011-11-01

    Since the world of human and whose life becomes more and more complex every day because of the digital technology and under the storm of knowledge (media, internet, governmental and non-governmental organizations, etc...) the simulation is rapidly growing in the social systems and in human behaviors. The formation of the body and mutual interactions are left to digital technological, communication mechanisms and coding the techno genetics of the body. Deconstruction begins everywhere. The linear simulation mechanism with modern realities are replaced by the disorder simulation of human behaviors with awareness realities. In this paper I would like to introduce simulation theory of "Disorder Sensitive Human Behaviors". I recently proposed this theory to critique the role of disorder human behaviors in social systems. In this theory the principle of realty is the chaotic awareness of the complexity of human systems inside of principle of modern thinking in Baudrillard's simulation theory. Proper examples will be also considered to investigate the theory.

  11. Prognostics Methodology for Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gulati, Sandeep; Mackey, Ryan

    2003-01-01

    An automatic method to schedule maintenance and repair of complex systems is produced based on a computational structure called the Informed Maintenance Grid (IMG). This method provides solutions to the two fundamental problems in autonomic logistics: (1) unambiguous detection of deterioration or impending loss of function and (2) determination of the time remaining to perform maintenance or other corrective action based upon information from the system. The IMG provides a health determination over the medium-to-longterm operation of the system, from one or more days to years of study. The IMG is especially applicable to spacecraft and both piloted and autonomous aircraft, or industrial control processes.

  12. Semiotics of constructed complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Landauer, C.; Bellman, K.L.

    1996-12-31

    The scope of this paper is limited to software and other constructed complex systems mediated or integrated by software. Our research program studies foundational issues that we believe will help us develop a theoretically sound approach to constructing complex systems. There have really been only two theoretical approaches that have helped us understand and develop computational systems: mathematics and linguistics. We show how semiotics can also play a role, whether we think of it as part of these other theories or as subsuming one or both of them. We describe our notion of {open_quotes}computational semiotics{close_quotes}, which we define to be the study of computational methods of dealing with symbols, show how such a theory might be formed, and describe what we might get from it in terms of more interesting use of symbols by computing systems. This research was supported in part by the Federal Highway Administration`s Office of Advanced Research and by the Advanced Research Projects Agency`s Software and Intelligent Systems Technology Office.

  13. Compulsory random drug testing of prisoners in England and Wales: design flaws in the system.

    PubMed

    Notarianni, L J; Belk, D; Collins, A J

    1995-12-01

    The Home Office has recently introduced compulsory testing of prisoners in England and Wales for drug abuse. From 1996 all prisons in the UK will be involved. Urine samples from approximately 10% of the prison population will be collected each month. The method of drug analysis selected by the Home Office is fast and economical but readily prone to interference from common substances giving false results. An elaborate procedure has therefore been evolved including a rigorous personal search of the prisoner to prevent sample adulteration. The definitive test gas chromotography - mass spectrometry (GC-MS), is more expensive but is resistant to sample adulteration, and currently all positive samples are confirmed by this method. In view of the proportion of samples that have tested positive, the extent of the unknown number of false negatives, and the possible rejection of the collection protocol by prisoners, savings could be made if the method of analysis employed in the first instance was GC-MS. This paper illustrates the inaccuracies produced in an assay technique similar to that used by the Home Office when urine is contaminated by simple, commonly available substances.

  14. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.

    2004-12-30

    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  15. Volumetric analysis of a New England barrier system using ground-penetrating-radar and coring techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Heteren, S.; FitzGerald, D.M.; Barber, D.C.; Kelley, J.T.; Belknap, D.F.

    1996-01-01

    Ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) profiles calibrated with core data allow accurate assessments of coastal barrier volumes. We applied this procedure successfully to the barrier system along Saco Bay, Maine (USA), as part of a sediment-budget study that focused on present-day sand volumes in various coastal, shoreface, and inner-shelf lith-osomes, and on sand fluxes that have affected the volume or distribution of sand in these sediment bodies through time. On GPR profiles, the components of the barrier lithosome are readily differentiated from other facies, except where the radar signal is attenuated by brackish or salty groundwater. Significant differences between dielectric properties of the barrier lithosome and other units commonly result in strong boundary reflectors. The mostly sandy barrier sediments allow deep penetration of GPR waves, in contrast to finer-grained strata and till-covered bedrock. Within the Saco Bay barrier system, 22 ??3 x 106 m3 of sediment are unevenly distributed. Two-thirds of the total barrier volume is contained within the northern and southern ends of the study area, in the Pine Point spit and the Ferry Beach/Goosefare complex, respectively. The central area around Old Orchard Beach is locally covered by only a thin veneer of barrier sand, averaging <3 m, that unconformably overlies shallow pre-Holocene facies. The prominence of barrier-spit facies and the distribution pattern of back-barrier sediments indicate that a high degree of segmentation, governed by antecedent topography, has affected the development of the Saco Bay barrier system. The present-day configuration of the barrier and back-barrier region along Saco Bay, however, conceals much of its early compartmentalized character.

  16. Innovations in major system reconfiguration in England: a study of the effectiveness, acceptability and processes of implementation of two models of stroke care

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Significant changes in provision of clinical care within the English National Health Service (NHS) have been discussed in recent years, with proposals to concentrate specialist services in fewer centres. Stroke is a major public health issue, accounting for over 10% of deaths in England and Wales, and much disability among survivors. Variations have been highlighted in stroke care, with many patients not receiving evidence-based care. To address these concerns, stroke services in London and Greater Manchester were reorganised, although different models were implemented. This study will analyse processes involved in making significant changes to stroke care services over a short time period, and the factors influencing these processes. We will examine whether the changes have delivered improvements in quality of care and patient outcomes; and, in light of this, whether the significant extra financial investment represented good value for money. Methods/design This study brings together quantitative data on ‘what works and at what cost?’ with qualitative data on ‘understanding implementation and sustainability’ to understand major system change in two large conurbations in England. Data on processes of care and their outcomes (e.g. morbidity, mortality, and cost) will be analysed to evidence services’ performance before and after reconfiguration. The evaluation draws on theories related to the dissemination and sustainability of innovations and the ‘social matrix’ underlying processes of innovation. We will conduct a series of case studies based on stakeholder interviews and documentary analysis. These will identify drivers for change, how the reconfigurations were governed, developed, and implemented, and how they influenced service quality. Discussion The research faces challenges due to: the different timings of the reconfigurations; the retrospective nature of the evaluation; and the current organisational turbulence in the English NHS

  17. Using real-time syndromic surveillance systems to help explore the acute impact of the air pollution incident of March/April 2014 in England.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gillian E; Bawa, Zharain; Macklin, Yolande; Morbey, Roger; Dobney, Alec; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Elliot, Alex J

    2015-01-01

    During March and early April 2014 there was widespread poor air quality across the United Kingdom. Public Health England used existing syndromic surveillance systems to monitor community health during the period. Short lived statistically significant rises in a variety of respiratory conditions, including asthma and wheeze, were detected. This incident has demonstrated the value of real-time syndromic surveillance systems, during an air pollution episode, for helping to explore the impact of poor air quality on community health in real-time.

  18. Sustainability, Complexity and Learning: Insights from Complex Systems Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Espinosa, A.; Porter, T.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to explore core contributions from two different approaches to complexity management in organisations aiming to improve their sustainability,: the Viable Systems Model (VSM), and the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). It is proposed to perform this by summarising the main insights each approach offers to…

  19. Scale effect in nutrient transport along a rural river system: the River Eden, Cumbria, northwest, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oladapo Tijani, Fatai; Bathurst, James; Quinn, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Only a limited amount of information derived from studies conducted at small catchment scales can be transferred to large scales because of the non-linear scale effects, thus necessitating studies (including nutrient concentrations and yields) across a range of scales. Here we present results from an investigation of spatial scale pattern and temporal variability of nutrient concentration in the River Eden in northwest England, a nested catchment stretching from Gais Gill (1.1 km2) to Great Corby (1373 km2). The monitoring involved seasonal campaigns and spot sampling of river water quality, using two United Kingdom national catchment study platforms. These are the Catchment Hydrology And Sustainable Management (CHASM) project, that provides a large spatial scale study platform along the Eden, and the Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) project that provides high resolution data for contrasting land uses that could help to explain, in detail, the mechanisms for transport of nutrients to the river. Nitrate concentration shows a clear increasing trend with the catchment area and there is highly significant difference (P<0.001) among the catchments. Compared with the headwater areas, phosphorus (P) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations are significantly higher (P<0.05) downstream but do not show a very clear spatial pattern. An alternative explanation was therefore sought for their distribution along the river. Generally, intensity of agricultural activities appears to influence the concentrations of these water quality parameters. The field data show that the amount of nutrients and suspended sediment is higher in catchments with higher farming activities. This underscores the importance of the distribution of agricultural land use as a driving force in nutrient transport in River Eden. Agricultural production generally increases downstream and may therefore appear to support a spatial scale dependency in nutrient yield. Higher nitrate concentration is associated

  20. Scale Effect in Nutrient Transport along a Rural River System: THE River Eden, Cumbria, Northwest, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tijani, F. O.; Bathurst, J. C.; Quinn, P. F.

    2014-12-01

    Only a limited amount of information derived from studies conducted at small catchment scales can be transferred to large scales because of the non-linear scale effects, thus necessitating studies (including nutrient concentrations and yields) across a range of scales. Here we present results from an investigation of spatial scale pattern and temporal variability of nutrient concentration in the River Eden in northwest England, a nested catchment stretching from Gais Gill (1.1 km2) to Great Corby (1373 km2). The monitoring involved seasonal campaigns and spot sampling of river water quality, using two United Kingdom national catchment study platforms. Nitrate concentration shows a clear increasing trend with the catchment area and there is highly significant difference (P<0.001) among the catchments. Compared with the headwater areas, phosphorus (P) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations are significantly higher (P<0.05) downstream but do not show a very clear spatial pattern. An alternative explanation was therefore sought for their distribution along the river. Generally, intensity of agricultural activities appears to influence the concentrations of these water quality parameters. The field data show that the amount of nutrients and suspended sediment is higher in catchments with higher farming activities and this increase downstream. This underscores the importance of the distribution of agricultural land use as a driving force in nutrient transport in River Eden. Higher nitrate concentration is associated with the period of low flow (strongest negative relationship, R2 = 0.97, was recorded in autumn sampling campaign at a gauging station). In contrast, phosphorus and suspended sediment are positively associated with discharge (strongest relationship (R2= 0.97) for total P were recorded in spring campaign at a gauging station). Similarly the dryness or wetness of a season affects the nutrient concentrations. Thus, it appears that hydrology and land use

  1. Multilevel Complex Networks and Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldarelli, Guido

    2014-03-01

    Network theory has been a powerful tool to model isolated complex systems. However, the classical approach does not take into account the interactions often present among different systems. Hence, the scientific community is nowadays concentrating the efforts on the foundations of new mathematical tools for understanding what happens when multiple networks interact. The case of economic and financial networks represents a paramount example of multilevel networks. In the case of trade, trade among countries the different levels can be described by the different granularity of the trading relations. Indeed, we have now data from the scale of consumers to that of the country level. In the case of financial institutions, we have a variety of levels at the same scale. For example one bank can appear in the interbank networks, ownership network and cds networks in which the same institution can take place. In both cases the systemically important vertices need to be determined by different procedures of centrality definition and community detection. In this talk I will present some specific cases of study related to these topics and present the regularities found. Acknowledged support from EU FET Project ``Multiplex'' 317532.

  2. Complexity and synchronization in stochastic chaotic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dang, Thai Son; Palit, Sanjay Kumar; Mukherjee, Sayan; Hoang, Thang Manh; Banerjee, Santo

    2016-02-01

    We investigate the complexity of a hyperchaotic dynamical system perturbed by noise and various nonlinear speech and music signals. The complexity is measured by the weighted recurrence entropy of the hyperchaotic and stochastic systems. The synchronization phenomenon between two stochastic systems with complex coupling is also investigated. These criteria are tested on chaotic and perturbed systems by mean conditional recurrence and normalized synchronization error. Numerical results including surface plots, normalized synchronization errors, complexity variations etc show the effectiveness of the proposed analysis.

  3. Complex systems in aeolian geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baas, Andreas C. W.

    2007-11-01

    Aeolian geomorphology provides a rich ground for investigating Earth surface processes and landforms as complex systems. Sand transport by wind is a classic dissipative process with non-linear dynamics, while dune field evolution is a prototypical self-organisation phenomenon. Both of these broad areas of aeolian geomorphology are discussed and analysed in the context of complexity and a systems approach. A feedback loop analysis of the aeolian boundary-layer-flow/sediment-transport/bedform interactions, based on contemporary physical models, reveals that the system is fundamentally unstable (or at most meta-stable) and likely to exhibit chaotic behaviour. Recent field-experimental research on aeolian streamers and spatio-temporal transport patterns, however, indicates that sand transport by wind may be wholly controlled by a self-similar turbulence cascade in the boundary layer flow, and that key aspects of transport event time-series can be fully reproduced from a combination of (self-organised) 1/ f forcing, motion threshold, and saltation inertia. The evolution of various types of bare-sand dunes and dune field patterns have been simulated successfully with self-organising cellular automata that incorporate only simplified physically-based interactions (rules). Because of their undefined physical scale, however, it not clear whether they in fact simulate ripples (bedforms) or dunes (landforms), raising fundamental cross-cutting questions regarding the difference between aeolian dunes, impact ripples, and subaqueous (current) ripples and dunes. An extended cellular automaton (CA) model, currently under development, incorporates the effects of vegetation in the aeolian environment and is capable of simulating the development of nebkhas, blow-outs, and parabolic coastal dunes. Preliminary results indicate the potential for establishing phase diagrams and attractor trajectories for vegetated aeolian dunescapes. Progress is limited, however, by a serious lack of

  4. Collaboration in Complex Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xiao, Yan; Mankenzie, Colin F.

    1998-01-01

    Improving our understanding of collaborative work in complex environments has the potential for developing effective supporting technologies, personnel training paradigms, and design principles for multi-crew workplaces. USing a sophisticated audio-video-data acquisition system and a corresponding analysis system, the researchers at University of Maryland have been able to study in detail team performance during real trauma patient resuscitation. The first study reported here was on coordination mechanisms and on characteristics of coordination breakdowns. One of the key findings was that implicit communications were an important coordination mechanism (e.g. through the use of shared workspace and event space). The second study was on the sources of uncertainty during resuscitation. Although incoming trauma patients' status is inherently uncertain, the findings suggest that much of the uncertainty felt by care providers was related to communication and coordination. These two studies demonstrate the value of and need for creating a real-life laboratory for studying team performance with the use of comprehensive and integrated data acquisition and analysis tools.

  5. Palaeostress and strain estimates from boudinage structure and their bearing on the evolution of a major Variscan fold-thrust complex in Southwest England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferguson, Colin C.; Lloyd, Geoffrey E.

    1982-10-01

    This paper develops a mesoscopic approach to palaeostress estimation based on applying a new "fibre-loading" type theory to boudinage structure. The theory implies that, if boudinage develops by a sequential fracture and separation process, the distribution of boudin aspect ratios should be controlled by a critical ratio below which the tensile stress cannot exceed the tensile fracture strength of the boudinaged layer. Simulations based on distributions of tensile fracture strength and elastic moduli (derived from published experimental work) allow a distribution of boudin aspect ratios to be predicted. This compares very favourably with the observed aspect ratio distribution of quartzite boudins within Lower Carboniferous slates at the southern margin of the Culm Synclinorium, southwest England. Hence the new theory can be used to derive an estimate of the elastically supported differential stress in the slates at the time of boudinage development. An associated palaeostrain analysis is also performed using a new strain reversal method. The boudinage occurs just below the base of a major fold-thrust complex, essentially a large overfold of Namurian and Westphalian rocks emplaced at the end of the Carboniferous over Devonian and Lower Carboniferous slates with thin quartzites and limestones. We interpret the boudinage in the quartzite layers as a gravitational spreading response to the superincumbent overfold. The thin limestones, however, show no competence contrast with the surrounding slates and we have therefore used a limestone flow law to estimate the rate of vertical shortening beneath the overfold. Using our boudinage strain value, we then estimate that the overfold took between 0.75 and 1.5 Ma to evolve, probably during the Stephanian.

  6. Reduction of Subjective and Objective System Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Occam's razor is often used in science to define the minimum criteria to establish a physical or philosophical idea or relationship. Albert Einstein is attributed the saying "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler". These heuristic ideas are based on a belief that there is a minimum state or set of states for a given system or phenomena. In looking at system complexity, these heuristics point us to an idea that complexity can be reduced to a minimum. How then, do we approach a reduction in complexity? Complexity has been described as a subjective concept and an objective measure of a system. Subjective complexity is based on human cognitive comprehension of the functions and inter relationships of a system. Subjective complexity is defined by the ability to fully comprehend the system. Simplifying complexity, in a subjective sense, is thus gaining a deeper understanding of the system. As Apple's Jonathon Ive has stated," It's not just minimalism or the absence of clutter. It involves digging through the depth of complexity. To be truly simple, you have to go really deep". Simplicity is not the absence of complexity but a deeper understanding of complexity. Subjective complexity, based on this human comprehension, cannot then be discerned from the sociological concept of ignorance. The inability to comprehend a system can be either a lack of knowledge, an inability to understand the intricacies of a system, or both. Reduction in this sense is based purely on a cognitive ability to understand the system and no system then may be truly complex. From this view, education and experience seem to be the keys to reduction or eliminating complexity. Objective complexity, is the measure of the systems functions and interrelationships which exist independent of human comprehension. Jonathon Ive's statement does not say that complexity is removed, only that the complexity is understood. From this standpoint, reduction of complexity can be approached

  7. A new laboratory-based surveillance system (Respiratory DataMart System) for influenza and other respiratory viruses in England: results and experience from 2009 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Zhao, H; Green, H; Lackenby, A; Donati, M; Ellis, J; Thompson, C; Bermingham, A; Field, J; Sebastianpillai, P; Zambon, M; Watson, Jm; Pebody, R

    2014-01-23

    During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, a new laboratory-based virological sentinel surveillance system, the Respiratory DataMart System (RDMS), was established in a network of 14 Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England (PHE)) and National Health Service (NHS) laboratories in England. Laboratory results (both positive and negative) were systematically collected from all routinely tested clinical respiratory samples for a range of respiratory viruses including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). The RDMS also monitored the occurrence of antiviral resistance of influenza viruses. Data from the RDMS for the 2009–2012 period showed that the 2009 pandemic influenza virus caused three waves of activity with different intensities during the pandemic and post pandemic periods. Peaks in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 positivity (defined as number of positive samples per total number of samples tested) were seen in summer and autumn in 2009, with slightly higher peak positivity observed in the first post-pandemic season in 2010/2011. The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strain almost completely disappeared in the second postpandemic season in 2011/2012. The RDMS findings are consistent with other existing community-based virological and clinical surveillance systems. With a large sample size, this new system provides a robust supplementary mechanism, through the collection of routinely available laboratory data at minimum extra cost, to monitor influenza as well as other respiratory virus activity. A near real-time, daily reporting mechanism in the RDMS was established during the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Furthermore, this system can be quickly adapted and used to monitor future influenza pandemics and other major outbreaks of respiratory infectious disease, including novel pathogens.

  8. Complex systems in metabolic engineering.

    PubMed

    Winkler, James D; Erickson, Keesha; Choudhury, Alaksh; Halweg-Edwards, Andrea L; Gill, Ryan T

    2015-12-01

    Metabolic engineers manipulate intricate biological networks to build efficient biological machines. The inherent complexity of this task, derived from the extensive and often unknown interconnectivity between and within these networks, often prevents researchers from achieving desired performance. Other fields have developed methods to tackle the issue of complexity for their unique subset of engineering problems, but to date, there has not been extensive and comprehensive examination of how metabolic engineers use existing tools to ameliorate this effect on their own research projects. In this review, we examine how complexity affects engineering at the protein, pathway, and genome levels within an organism, and the tools for handling these issues to achieve high-performing strain designs. Quantitative complexity metrics and their applications to metabolic engineering versus traditional engineering fields are also discussed. We conclude by predicting how metabolic engineering practices may advance in light of an explicit consideration of design complexity.

  9. Local Authorities and the Education of Young People with Sickle Cell Disorders in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyson, S. M.; Abuateya, H.; Atkin, K.; Culley, L. A.; Dyson, S. E.; Rowley, D. T.

    2008-01-01

    The successful inclusion of minority ethnic pupils with sickle cell disorders (SCD) raises a number of challenges for educational systems. In England, local education authorities were important drivers for innovative responses to complex needs and the former Inner London Education Authority produced guidance in 1989 on SCD in schools. Local…

  10. Emergent complexity in simple neural systems

    PubMed Central

    Oster, George

    2009-01-01

    The ornate and diverse patterns of seashells testify to the complexity of living systems. Provocative computational explorations have shown that similarly complex patterns may arise from the collective interaction of a small number of rules. This suggests that, although a system may appear complex, it may still be understood in terms of simple principles. It is still debatable whether shell patterns emerge from some undiscovered simple principles, or are the consequence of an irreducibly complex interaction of many effects. Recent work by Boettiger, Ermentrout and Oster on the biological mechanisms of shell patterning has provided compelling evidence that, at least for this system, simplicity produces diversity and complexity. PMID:20195452

  11. Royal Society, Discussion on Rotation in the Solar System, London, England, March 8, 9, 1984, Proceedings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hide, R.

    1984-11-01

    The classical mechanics of rotation (R) in the present solar system and during its evolution is examined in theoretical studies and reviews of observational data. Topics discussed include R in the early solar system, R/magnetic-field interactions, the R of the sun, long-term changes in the R of the earth, tidal friction in the earth-moon system, the R of the atmospheres of the earth and planets, R and internal structures of the major planets and their inner satellites, the R of the Uranian system, the R of Hyperion, asteroid R rates, R of cometary nuclei, and the R of the earth inner core. Graphs, diagrams, tables, and photographs are provided.

  12. Auto Action Learning: a tool for policy change. Building capacity across the developing regional system to improve health in the North East of England.

    PubMed

    Learmonth, Alyson; Pedler, Mike

    2004-05-01

    Health policy traditionally has tended to focus on health care policy. The World Health Organisation Investment for Health approach aims to influence policy development by locating health as both the outcome of, and an asset for, sustainable economic and social development. The policy context in England offers a range of drivers and opportunities to operationalise the Investment for Health approach through action to improve health and reduce inequalities, nationally and as importantly at a regional and local level. This paper traces developments in the North East of England April 2002-November 2002, from the perspective of an advocate for developing a systemic and systematic approach using an Investment for Health approach. The tool used to track change is based in action learning [M. Pedler, Action Learning for Managers, Lemos and Crane, London, 1996]. The Action Learning Problem Brief identifies why the goal is important, who to, how progress might be identified, difficulties and benefits. Generally, this acts as a starting point for problem solving within an Action Learning Set. This piece of work uses the framework for reflection and tracking, with input from a mentor, at four to eight weekly intervals, 'Auto Action Learning'. The authors pull out key learning points from the process, using a framework 'Towards a model for systematic learning from doing in the North East of England'.

  13. Is Echo a complex adaptive system?

    PubMed

    Smith, R M; Bedau, M A

    2000-01-01

    We evaluate whether John Holland's Echo model exemplifies his theory of complex adaptive systems. After reviewing Holland's theory of complex adaptive systems and describing his Escho model, we describe and explain the characteristic evolutionary behavior observed in a series of Echo model runs. We conclude that Echo lacks the diversity of hierarchically organized aggregates that typify complex adaptive systems, and we explore possible explanations for this failure.

  14. Networking Hospital ePrescribing: A Systemic View of Digitalization of Medicines' Use in England.

    PubMed

    Lichtner, Valentina; Hibberd, Ralph; Cornford, Tony

    2016-01-01

    Medicine management is at the core of hospital care and digitalization of prescribing and administration of medicines is often the focus of attention of health IT programs. This may be conveyed to the public in terms of the elimination of paper-based drug charts and increased readability of doctors' prescriptions. Based on analysis of documents about hospital medicines supply and use (including systems' implementation) in the UK, in this conceptual paper electronic prescribing and administration are repositioned as only one aspect of an important wider transformation in medicine management in hospital settings, involving, for example, procurement, dispensing, auditing, waste management, research and safety vigilance. Approaching digitalization from a systemic perspective has the potential to uncover the wider implications of this transformation for patients, the organization and the wider health care system.

  15. Defining Health in the Era of Value-based Care: Lessons from England of Relevance to Other Health Systems

    PubMed Central

    Badrinath, Padmanabhan

    2017-01-01

    The demand for healthcare is rising due to aging populations, rising chronic disease prevalence, and technological innovations. There are currently more effective and cost-effective interventions available than can be afforded within limited budgets. A new way of thinking about the optimal use of resources is needed. Ensuring that available resources are used for interventions that provide outcomes that patient’s most value, rather than a focus just on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, may help to ensure that resources are used optimally. Value-based healthcare puts what patients value at the center of healthcare. It helps ensure that they receive the care that can provide them with outcomes they think are important and that limited resources are focused on high-value interventions. In order to do this, we need flexible definitions of ‘health’, personalized and tailored to patient values. We review the current status of value-based health care in England and identify lessons applicable to a variety of health systems. For this, we draw upon the work of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the National Health Service (NHS), Right Care Initiative, and our local experience in promoting value-based health care for specific conditions in our region. Combining the best available evidence with open and honest dialogue between patients, clinicians, and others, whilst requiring considerable time and resources are essential to building a consensus around the value that allows the best use of limited budgets. Values have been present in healthcare since its beginnings. Placing value and values at the center of healthcare could help to ensure available resources are used to provide the greatest possible benefit to patients.

  16. The Influence of Overseas Examples on DES Policy-Making for the School System in England, 1985-1995

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, George; Exley, Sonia

    2006-01-01

    Claims are often made in British education about the extent to which policy reforms have been "borrowed" from overseas. Based on interviews with senior civil servants and HMI, this paper addresses the extent to which such claims apply to central government educational policy-making at school level in England between 1985 and 1995. This…

  17. Rebels against the System: Leadership Agency and Curriculum Innovation in the Context of School Autonomy and Accountability in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greany, Toby; Waterhouse, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyse the development of school autonomy, school leadership and curriculum innovation in England over the past 40 years. It provides a baseline picture for the wider international study on school autonomy and curriculum innovation. Design/methodology/approach: An initial literature review was…

  18. A review of the coroner system in England and Wales: a commentary.

    PubMed

    Berry, Colin; Heaton-Armstrong, Anthony

    2005-01-01

    The certification of deaths and their investigation is flawed and has not been subject to comprehensive revision for many decades; the current system is fragmented. Despite its historical 'stability', it is poorly understood by many who have to use it and the lack of supervisory structures within the system means that there is no leadership, accountability or quality assurance. No formal linkage to or communication with other public health services and systems exists, minimising its epidemiological value. There is a lack of clear participation rights in these processes for bereaved families. The standards for the treatment and support of the bereaved are woefully inadequate and have contributed in a major way to certain causes celebres. A report in 2003 suggested that death investigation should be a service that is consistent and professional, able to deal effectively with legal and health issues, work across the full range of concerns about public health and public safety and support, and audit the death certification process. The role of those supporting the current system must be properly established in a framework of accountability.

  19. The Environmental Belief Systems of Organic and Conventional Farmers: Evidence from Central-Southern England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kings, David; Ilbery, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Little comparative work has been conducted on the environmental belief systems and behaviours of conventional and organic farmers, especially in relation to farming culture, the environment and lowland farmland avifauna. Adopting a modified behavioural approach, this paper analyses the ways in which the environmental attitudes and understandings…

  20. Ofsted's Role in Promoting School Improvement: The Mechanisms of the School Inspection System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Karen; Tymms, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Most countries across Europe now have their own Inspectorate as part of a school improvement and accountability system. However, there has been little research on the impact of school inspections or on the aspects of school inspections that maximise the positive effects and minimise the unintended consequences. As a precursor to further research,…

  1. Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Rube B.

    2004-02-01

    Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

  2. Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Rube B.

    2004-02-04

    Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

  3. London, England

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    For almost 2,000 years, the River Thames has served as the life force of London, capital of the United Kingdom and one of the world's most famous cities. In AD 43 the Romans established the trading settlement of Londinium at a favorable crossing point on the river. The Romans remained until the 5th century, when the city came under Saxon control. The early 17th century saw enormous growth, but the deadly plague of 1664 and 1665 ravaged the population, and in the following year the Great Fire, which burned for four days, destroyed most of the city. A public transportation system and other city services in the early 19th century eased many of the increasing urban problems of the burgeoning capital of the wealthy British Empire. After coping with the devastating effects of bombing during World War II and the gradual dismantling of the empire, London today thrives as a vital modern metropolis. London is one of 100 cities being studied using ASTER data to map and monitor urban use patterns and growth.

    This image was acquired on October 12, 2001 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.

    ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products.

    The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats

  4. Complex System Governance for Acquisition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-30

    engineering management and systems engineering at Old Dominion University (ODU) in Norfolk, VA. He holds the degrees of Professional Engineer and...received his PhD in the Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at Old Dominion University (ODU) in Norfolk, VA. He holds an MEng in... Management , International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, and Journal of Requirements Engineering. [pkatina@odu.edu] Charles Keating—is a

  5. Social networks as embedded complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Benham-Hutchins, Marge; Clancy, Thomas R

    2010-09-01

    As systems evolve over time, their natural tendency is to become increasingly more complex. Studies in the field of complex systems have generated new perspectives on management in social organizations such as hospitals. Much of this research appears as a natural extension of the cross-disciplinary field of systems theory. This is the 15th in a series of articles applying complex systems science to the traditional management concepts of planning, organizing, directing, coordinating, and controlling. In this article, the authors discuss healthcare social networks as a hierarchy of embedded complex adaptive systems. The authors further examine the use of social network analysis tools as a means to understand complex communication patterns and reduce medical errors.

  6. The Ontologies of Complexity and Learning about Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Michael J.; Kapur, Manu; So, Hyo-Jeong; Lee, June

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses a study of students learning core conceptual perspectives from recent scientific research on complexity using a hypermedia learning environment in which different types of scaffolding were provided. Three comparison groups used a hypermedia system with agent-based models and scaffolds for problem-based learning activities that…

  7. Nervous System Complexity Baffles Scientists.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Jeffrey L.

    1982-01-01

    New research findings about how nerve cells transmit signals are forcing researchers to overhaul their simplistic ideas about the nervous system. Topics highlighted include the multiple role of peptides in the nervous system, receptor molecules, and molecules that form ion channels within membranes. (Author/JN)

  8. Statistically Validated Networks in Bipartite Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tumminello, Michele; Miccichè, Salvatore; Lillo, Fabrizio; Piilo, Jyrki; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2011-01-01

    Many complex systems present an intrinsic bipartite structure where elements of one set link to elements of the second set. In these complex systems, such as the system of actors and movies, elements of one set are qualitatively different than elements of the other set. The properties of these complex systems are typically investigated by constructing and analyzing a projected network on one of the two sets (for example the actor network or the movie network). Complex systems are often very heterogeneous in the number of relationships that the elements of one set establish with the elements of the other set, and this heterogeneity makes it very difficult to discriminate links of the projected network that are just reflecting system's heterogeneity from links relevant to unveil the properties of the system. Here we introduce an unsupervised method to statistically validate each link of a projected network against a null hypothesis that takes into account system heterogeneity. We apply the method to a biological, an economic and a social complex system. The method we propose is able to detect network structures which are very informative about the organization and specialization of the investigated systems, and identifies those relationships between elements of the projected network that cannot be explained simply by system heterogeneity. We also show that our method applies to bipartite systems in which different relationships might have different qualitative nature, generating statistically validated networks in which such difference is preserved. PMID:21483858

  9. In Defense of Simulating Complex and Tragic Historical Episodes: A Measured Response to the Outcry over a New England Slavery Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright-Maley, Cory

    2014-01-01

    A slavery simulation that took place as part of a field trip for students of a Hartford junior high academy led a father to file a human rights suit against the school district, and for one official to comment that simulations of complex and tragic human phenomena have "no place in an educational system." In light of these conclusions,…

  10. Simple molecules as complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Furtenbacher, Tibor; Árendás, Péter; Mellau, Georg; Császár, Attila G.

    2014-01-01

    For individual molecules quantum mechanics (QM) offers a simple, natural and elegant way to build large-scale complex networks: quantized energy levels are the nodes, allowed transitions among the levels are the links, and transition intensities supply the weights. QM networks are intrinsic properties of molecules and they are characterized experimentally via spectroscopy; thus, realizations of QM networks are called spectroscopic networks (SN). As demonstrated for the rovibrational states of H216O, the molecule governing the greenhouse effect on earth through hundreds of millions of its spectroscopic transitions (links), both the measured and first-principles computed one-photon absorption SNs containing experimentally accessible transitions appear to have heavy-tailed degree distributions. The proposed novel view of high-resolution spectroscopy and the observed degree distributions have important implications: appearance of a core of highly interconnected hubs among the nodes, a generally disassortative connection preference, considerable robustness and error tolerance, and an “ultra-small-world” property. The network-theoretical view of spectroscopy offers a data reduction facility via a minimum-weight spanning tree approach, which can assist high-resolution spectroscopists to improve the efficiency of the assignment of their measured spectra. PMID:24722221

  11. Data Analysis of Complex Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    is very commonly used in the pulp and paper industry . Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited...strands of cellulose (organic plant material) called fibers. Eventually, the old paper turns into pulp . Water is brought into the system to keep the...huge flat wire screen which is moving very quickly through the paper machine. While on the screen, water starts to drain from the pulp , and the

  12. Prediction and characterization of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mainieri, R.; Baer, M.; Brand, H.

    1996-10-01

    Complex systems are difficult to characterize and to simulate. By considering a series of explicit systems, through experiments and analysis, this project has shown that dynamical systems can be used to model complex systems. A complex dynamical system requires an exponential amount of computer work to simulate accurately. Direct methods are not practical and it is only by an hierarchical approach that one can gain control over the exponential behavior. This allows the development of efficient methods to study fluid flow and to simulate biological systems. There are two steps in the hierarchical approach. First, one must characterize the complex system as a collection of large domains or objects that have their own forms of interactions. This is done by considering coherent structures, such as solitons, spirals, and propagating fronts and determining their interactions. Second, one must be able to predict the properties of the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system.This is accomplished by an understanding of the topology of the orbits of the dynamical system. The coherent structure description was carried out in fluid and reaction diffusion systems. It was shown that very simple models from statistical mechanics could characterize a rotating Rayleigh-Benard system and that patters in reaction-diffusion systems are well described by soliton-like solutions. The studies of dynamical systems showed that simple characterizations of the phase space can be used to determine long time bounds. Also, that periodic orbit theory can be used to demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulations will converge to incorrect results.

  13. Active impedance matching of complex structural systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macmartin, Douglas G.; Miller, David W.; Hall, Steven R.

    1991-01-01

    Viewgraphs on active impedance matching of complex structural systems are presented. Topics covered include: traveling wave model; dereverberated mobility model; computation of dereverberated mobility; control problem: optimal impedance matching; H2 optimal solution; statistical energy analysis (SEA) solution; experimental transfer functions; interferometer actuator and sensor locations; active strut configurations; power dual variables; dereverberation of complex structure; dereverberated transfer function; compensators; and relative power flow.

  14. Quantum mechanics in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoehn, Ross Douglas

    This document should be considered in its separation; there are three distinct topics contained within and three distinct chapters within the body of works. In a similar fashion, this abstract should be considered in three parts. Firstly, we explored the existence of multiply-charged atomic ions by having developed a new set of dimensional scaling equations as well as a series of relativistic augmentations to the standard dimensional scaling procedure and to the self-consistent field calculations. Secondly, we propose a novel method of predicting drug efficacy in hopes to facilitate the discovery of new small molecule therapeutics by modeling the agonist-protein system as being similar to the process of Inelastic Electron Tunneling Spectroscopy. Finally, we facilitate the instruction in basic quantum mechanical topics through the use of quantum games; this method of approach allows for the generation of exercises with the intent of conveying the fundamental concepts within a first year quantum mechanics classroom. Furthermore, no to be mentioned within the body of the text, yet presented in appendix form, certain works modeling the proliferation of cells types within the confines of man-made lattices for the purpose of facilitating artificial vascular transplants. In Chapter 2, we present a theoretical framework which describes multiply-charged atomic ions, their stability within super-intense laser fields, also lay corrections to the systems due to relativistic effects. Dimensional scaling calculations with relativistic corrections for systems: H, H-, H 2-, He, He-, He2-, He3- within super-intense laser fields were completed. Also completed were three-dimensional self consistent field calculations to verify the dimensionally scaled quantities. With the aforementioned methods the system's ability to stably bind 'additional' electrons through the development of multiple isolated regions of high potential energy leading to nodes of high electron density is shown

  15. Hierarchical Models of the Nearshore Complex System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-01-01

    unclassified unclassified /,andard Form 7 7Qien. -pii Prescrbed by ANS Sid 239-18 zgB -10z Hierarchical Models of the Nearshore Complex System: Final...TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS Hierarchical Models of the Nearshore Complex System N00014-02-1-0358 6. AUTHOR(S) Brad Werner 7. PERFORMING...8217 ........... The long-term goal of this reasearch was to develop and test predictive models for nearshore processes. This grant was terminaton funding for the

  16. What Is a Complex Innovation System?

    PubMed

    Katz, J Sylvan

    2016-01-01

    Innovation systems are sometimes referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale-invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxα, where the exponent, α, is a measure of scale-invariance. The focus of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system. In particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature that can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. Citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. It is demonstrated that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time and decreasing group sizes. Scale-invariant correlations are shown between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. The recursive or self-similar nature of scale-invariance suggests that any smaller innovation system within the global research system is likely to be complex with scale-invariant properties too.

  17. What Is a Complex Innovation System?

    PubMed Central

    Katz, J. Sylvan

    2016-01-01

    Innovation systems are sometimes referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale-invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxα, where the exponent, α, is a measure of scale-invariance. The focus of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system. In particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature that can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. Citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. It is demonstrated that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time and decreasing group sizes. Scale-invariant correlations are shown between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. The recursive or self-similar nature of scale-invariance suggests that any smaller innovation system within the global research system is likely to be complex with scale-invariant properties too. PMID:27258040

  18. Large-scale systems: Complexity, stability, reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siljak, D. D.

    1975-01-01

    After showing that a complex dynamic system with a competitive structure has highly reliable stability, a class of noncompetitive dynamic systems for which competitive models can be constructed is defined. It is shown that such a construction is possible in the context of the hierarchic stability analysis. The scheme is based on the comparison principle and vector Liapunov functions.

  19. System Complexity Reduction via Feature Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deng, Houtao

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation transforms a set of system complexity reduction problems to feature selection problems. Three systems are considered: classification based on association rules, network structure learning, and time series classification. Furthermore, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree…

  20. Design tools for complex dynamic security systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Byrne, Raymond Harry; Rigdon, James Brian; Rohrer, Brandon Robinson; Laguna, Glenn A.; Robinett, Rush D. III; Groom, Kenneth Neal; Wilson, David Gerald; Bickerstaff, Robert J.; Harrington, John J.

    2007-01-01

    The development of tools for complex dynamic security systems is not a straight forward engineering task but, rather, a scientific task where discovery of new scientific principles and math is necessary. For years, scientists have observed complex behavior but have had difficulty understanding it. Prominent examples include: insect colony organization, the stock market, molecular interactions, fractals, and emergent behavior. Engineering such systems will be an even greater challenge. This report explores four tools for engineered complex dynamic security systems: Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, Percolation Theory, Graph Theory, and Exergy/Entropy Theory. Additionally, enabling hardware technology for next generation security systems are described: a 100 node wireless sensor network, unmanned ground vehicle and unmanned aerial vehicle.

  1. Vacuum Ultraviolet Photoionization of Complex Chemical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostko, Oleg; Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit; Ahmed, Musahid

    2016-05-01

    Tunable vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation coupled to mass spectrometry is applied to the study of complex chemical systems. The identification of novel reactive intermediates and radicals is revealed in flame, pulsed photolysis, and pyrolysis reactors, leading to the elucidation of spectroscopy, reaction mechanisms, and kinetics. Mass-resolved threshold photoelectron photoion coincidence measurements provide unprecedented access to vibrationally resolved spectra of free radicals present in high-temperature reactors. Photoionization measurements in water clusters, nucleic acid base dimers, and their complexes with water provide signatures of proton transfer in hydrogen-bonded and π-stacked systems. Experimental and theoretical methods to track ion-molecule reactions and fragmentation pathways in intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen-bonded systems in sugars and alcohols are described. Photoionization of laser-ablated molecules, clusters, and their reaction products inform thermodynamics and spectroscopy that are relevant to astrochemistry and catalysis. New directions in coupling VUV radiation to interrogate complex chemical systems are discussed.

  2. Particlelike wave packets in complex scattering systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gérardin, Benoît; Laurent, Jérôme; Ambichl, Philipp; Prada, Claire; Rotter, Stefan; Aubry, Alexandre

    2016-07-01

    A wave packet undergoes a strong spatial and temporal dispersion while propagating through a complex medium. This wave scattering is often seen as a nightmare in wave physics whether it be for focusing, imaging, or communication purposes. Controlling wave propagation through complex systems is thus of fundamental interest in many areas, ranging from optics or acoustics to medical imaging or telecommunications. Here, we study the propagation of elastic waves in a cavity and a disordered waveguide by means of laser interferometry. From the direct experimental access to the time-delay matrix of these systems, we demonstrate the existence of particlelike wave packets that remain focused in time and space throughout their complex trajectory. Due to their limited dispersion, their selective excitation will be crucially relevant for all applications involving selective wave focusing and efficient information transfer through complex media.

  3. [Complex biotechnical feedback in electrostimulation systems].

    PubMed

    Osipov, A N; Dik, S K; Senkovskiĭ, K G

    2002-01-01

    Basic principles in design of electrostimulating equipment with complex biotechnical coupling combining biotechnical feedback and biological feedback are formulated. Realization of these principles in one system leads to qualitatively new capacities of enhancing the efficiency of implemented rehabilitative measures, which is the basis of the designed multichannel electromyostimulation device MYOS having a complex biotechnical feedback, which is used to treat a number of central and peripheral motor disorders (paralyses, pareses), to correct movements, to learn motor skills during training, etc.

  4. Integrated Reconfigurable Intelligent Systems (IRIS) for Complex Naval Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-02-23

    FINAL REPORT (February 24, 2010 - February 23, 2011) "Integrated Reconfigurable Intelligent Systems ( IRIS ) for Complex Naval Systems" Contract...RECONFIGURABLE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS ( IRIS ) FOR COMPLEX NAVAL SYSTEMS 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER N00014-10-1-0629 5b. GRANT NUMBER N/A 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...ASDL in developing and applying the IRIS concept for 1. The main effort is to develop an integrated dynamic standing the behavior of the next

  5. Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASOS) engineering environment.

    SciTech Connect

    Detry, Richard Joseph; Linebarger, John Michael; Finley, Patrick D.; Maffitt, S. Louise; Glass, Robert John, Jr.; Beyeler, Walter Eugene; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2012-02-01

    Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex physical-socio-technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation. The Phoenix initiative implements CASoS Engineering principles combining the bottom up Complex Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems view with the top down Systems Engineering and System-of-Systems view. CASoS Engineering theory and practice must be conducted together to develop a discipline that is grounded in reality, extends our understanding of how CASoS behave and allows us to better control the outcomes. The pull of applications (real world problems) is critical to this effort, as is the articulation of a CASoS Engineering Framework that grounds an engineering approach in the theory of complex adaptive systems of systems. Successful application of the CASoS Engineering Framework requires modeling, simulation and analysis (MS and A) capabilities and the cultivation of a CASoS Engineering Community of Practice through knowledge sharing and facilitation. The CASoS Engineering Environment, itself a complex adaptive system of systems, constitutes the two platforms that provide these capabilities.

  6. Complex system modelling for veterinary epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Lanzas, Cristina; Chen, Shi

    2015-02-01

    The use of mathematical models has a long tradition in infectious disease epidemiology. The nonlinear dynamics and complexity of pathogen transmission pose challenges in understanding its key determinants, in identifying critical points, and designing effective mitigation strategies. Mathematical modelling provides tools to explicitly represent the variability, interconnectedness, and complexity of systems, and has contributed to numerous insights and theoretical advances in disease transmission, as well as to changes in public policy, health practice, and management. In recent years, our modelling toolbox has considerably expanded due to the advancements in computing power and the need to model novel data generated by technologies such as proximity loggers and global positioning systems. In this review, we discuss the principles, advantages, and challenges associated with the most recent modelling approaches used in systems science, the interdisciplinary study of complex systems, including agent-based, network and compartmental modelling. Agent-based modelling is a powerful simulation technique that considers the individual behaviours of system components by defining a set of rules that govern how individuals ("agents") within given populations interact with one another and the environment. Agent-based models have become a recent popular choice in epidemiology to model hierarchical systems and address complex spatio-temporal dynamics because of their ability to integrate multiple scales and datasets.

  7. Toolsets Maintain Health of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2010-01-01

    First featured in Spinoff 2001, Qualtech Systems Inc. (QSI), of Wethersfield, Connecticut, adapted its Testability, Engineering, and Maintenance System (TEAMS) toolset under Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Ames Research Center to strengthen NASA's systems health management approach for its large, complex, and interconnected systems. Today, six NASA field centers utilize the TEAMS toolset, including TEAMS-Designer, TEAMS-RT, TEAMATE, and TEAMS-RDS. TEAMS is also being used on industrial systems that generate power, carry data, refine chemicals, perform medical functions, and produce semiconductor wafers. QSI finds TEAMS can lower costs by decreasing problems requiring service by 30 to 50 percent.

  8. Trends in modeling Biomedical Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Milanesi, Luciano; Romano, Paolo; Castellani, Gastone; Remondini, Daniel; Liò, Petro

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we provide an introduction to the techniques for multi-scale complex biological systems, from the single bio-molecule to the cell, combining theoretical modeling, experiments, informatics tools and technologies suitable for biological and biomedical research, which are becoming increasingly multidisciplinary, multidimensional and information-driven. The most important concepts on mathematical modeling methodologies and statistical inference, bioinformatics and standards tools to investigate complex biomedical systems are discussed and the prominent literature useful to both the practitioner and the theoretician are presented. PMID:19828068

  9. Complexity in electronic negotiation support systems.

    PubMed

    Griessmair, Michele; Strunk, Guido; Vetschera, Rudolf; Koeszegi, Sabine T

    2011-10-01

    It is generally acknowledged that the medium influences the way we communicate and negotiation research directs considerable attention to the impact of different electronic communication modes on the negotiation process and outcomes. Complexity theories offer models and methods that allow the investigation of how pattern and temporal sequences unfold over time in negotiation interactions. By focusing on the dynamic and interactive quality of negotiations as well as the information, choice, and uncertainty contained in the negotiation process, the complexity perspective addresses several issues of central interest in classical negotiation research. In the present study we compare the complexity of the negotiation communication process among synchronous and asynchronous negotiations (IM vs. e-mail) as well as an electronic negotiation support system including a decision support system (DSS). For this purpose, transcripts of 145 negotiations have been coded and analyzed with the Shannon entropy and the grammar complexity. Our results show that negotiating asynchronically via e-mail as well as including a DSS significantly reduces the complexity of the negotiation process. Furthermore, a reduction of the complexity increases the probability of reaching an agreement.

  10. Mapping complex traits as a dynamic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Lidan; Wu, Rongling

    2015-06-01

    Despite increasing emphasis on the genetic study of quantitative traits, we are still far from being able to chart a clear picture of their genetic architecture, given an inherent complexity involved in trait formation. A competing theory for studying such complex traits has emerged by viewing their phenotypic formation as a "system" in which a high-dimensional group of interconnected components act and interact across different levels of biological organization from molecules through cells to whole organisms. This system is initiated by a machinery of DNA sequences that regulate a cascade of biochemical pathways to synthesize endophenotypes and further assemble these endophenotypes toward the end-point phenotype in virtue of various developmental changes. This review focuses on a conceptual framework for genetic mapping of complex traits by which to delineate the underlying components, interactions and mechanisms that govern the system according to biological principles and understand how these components function synergistically under the control of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) to comprise a unified whole. This framework is built by a system of differential equations that quantifies how alterations of different components lead to the global change of trait development and function, and provides a quantitative and testable platform for assessing the multiscale interplay between QTLs and development. The method will enable geneticists to shed light on the genetic complexity of any biological system and predict, alter or engineer its physiological and pathological states.

  11. Detection of timescales in evolving complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Darst, Richard K.; Granell, Clara; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Saramäki, Jari; Fortunato, Santo

    2016-01-01

    Most complex systems are intrinsically dynamic in nature. The evolution of a dynamic complex system is typically represented as a sequence of snapshots, where each snapshot describes the configuration of the system at a particular instant of time. This is often done by using constant intervals but a better approach would be to define dynamic intervals that match the evolution of the system’s configuration. To this end, we propose a method that aims at detecting evolutionary changes in the configuration of a complex system, and generates intervals accordingly. We show that evolutionary timescales can be identified by looking for peaks in the similarity between the sets of events on consecutive time intervals of data. Tests on simple toy models reveal that the technique is able to detect evolutionary timescales of time-varying data both when the evolution is smooth as well as when it changes sharply. This is further corroborated by analyses of several real datasets. Our method is scalable to extremely large datasets and is computationally efficient. This allows a quick, parameter-free detection of multiple timescales in the evolution of a complex system. PMID:28004820

  12. Detection of timescales in evolving complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darst, Richard K.; Granell, Clara; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Saramäki, Jari; Fortunato, Santo

    2016-12-01

    Most complex systems are intrinsically dynamic in nature. The evolution of a dynamic complex system is typically represented as a sequence of snapshots, where each snapshot describes the configuration of the system at a particular instant of time. This is often done by using constant intervals but a better approach would be to define dynamic intervals that match the evolution of the system’s configuration. To this end, we propose a method that aims at detecting evolutionary changes in the configuration of a complex system, and generates intervals accordingly. We show that evolutionary timescales can be identified by looking for peaks in the similarity between the sets of events on consecutive time intervals of data. Tests on simple toy models reveal that the technique is able to detect evolutionary timescales of time-varying data both when the evolution is smooth as well as when it changes sharply. This is further corroborated by analyses of several real datasets. Our method is scalable to extremely large datasets and is computationally efficient. This allows a quick, parameter-free detection of multiple timescales in the evolution of a complex system.

  13. Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Simons, R R L; Smith, R P; Arnold, M E; Broughan, J; Kosmider, R; Downs, S H

    2016-01-01

    Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date.

  14. Factors Affecting Completion of Apprenticeship Training in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gambin, Lynn; Hogarth, Terence

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines factors that are associated with the probability of completion of apprenticeship programmes by individual learners in England. Data are from the 2008/2009 academic year Individualised Learner Record--the administrative database containing information on all learners in the Further Education system in England. The analysis…

  15. 77 FR 42699 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-20

    ... Director, New England Fishery Management Council; telephone: (978) 465-0492. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The... modifications to the current days-at-sea (DAS) management system, including alternatives to enable DAS leasing... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC116 New England Fishery Management...

  16. Describing the complexity of systems: multivariable "set complexity" and the information basis of systems biology.

    PubMed

    Galas, David J; Sakhanenko, Nikita A; Skupin, Alexander; Ignac, Tomasz

    2014-02-01

    Context dependence is central to the description of complexity. Keying on the pairwise definition of "set complexity," we use an information theory approach to formulate general measures of systems complexity. We examine the properties of multivariable dependency starting with the concept of interaction information. We then present a new measure for unbiased detection of multivariable dependency, "differential interaction information." This quantity for two variables reduces to the pairwise "set complexity" previously proposed as a context-dependent measure of information in biological systems. We generalize it here to an arbitrary number of variables. Critical limiting properties of the "differential interaction information" are key to the generalization. This measure extends previous ideas about biological information and provides a more sophisticated basis for the study of complexity. The properties of "differential interaction information" also suggest new approaches to data analysis. Given a data set of system measurements, differential interaction information can provide a measure of collective dependence, which can be represented in hypergraphs describing complex system interaction patterns. We investigate this kind of analysis using simulated data sets. The conjoining of a generalized set complexity measure, multivariable dependency analysis, and hypergraphs is our central result. While our focus is on complex biological systems, our results are applicable to any complex system.

  17. Lasercom system architecture with reduced complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lesh, James R. (Inventor); Chen, Chien-Chung (Inventor); Ansari, Homayoon (Inventor)

    1994-01-01

    Spatial acquisition and precision beam pointing functions are critical to spaceborne laser communication systems. In the present invention, a single high bandwidth CCD detector is used to perform both spatial acquisition and tracking functions. Compared to previous lasercom hardware design, the array tracking concept offers reduced system complexity by reducing the number of optical elements in the design. Specifically, the design requires only one detector and one beam steering mechanism. It also provides the means to optically close the point-ahead control loop. The technology required for high bandwidth array tracking was examined and shown to be consistent with current state of the art. The single detector design can lead to a significantly reduced system complexity and a lower system cost.

  18. Resource Letter CS-1: Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, M. E. J.

    2011-08-01

    A complex system is a system composed of many interacting parts, often called agents, which displays collective behavior that does not follow trivially from the behaviors of the individual parts. Examples include condensed-matter systems, ecosystems, stock markets and economies, biological evolution, and indeed the whole of human society. Substantial progress has been made in the quantitative understanding of complex systems, particularly since the 1980s, using a combination of basic theory, much of it derived from physics, and computer simulation. The subject is a broad one, drawing on techniques and ideas from a wide range of areas. Here, I give a selection of introductory resources, ranging from classic papers to recent books and reviews.

  19. Sensitivity of complex, internally coupled systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw

    1990-01-01

    A method is presented for computing sensitivity derivatives with respect to independent (input) variables for complex, internally coupled systems, while avoiding the cost and inaccuracy of finite differencing performed on the entire system analysis. The method entails two alternative algorithms: the first is based on the classical implicit function theorem formulated on residuals of governing equations, and the second develops the system sensitivity equations in a new form using the partial (local) sensitivity derivatives of the output with respect to the input of each part of the system. A few application examples are presented to illustrate the discussion.

  20. Promoting Transfer by Grounding Complex Systems Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstone, Robert L.; Wilensky, Uri

    2008-01-01

    Understanding scientific phenomena in terms of complex systems principles is both scientifically and pedagogically important. Situations from different disciplines of science are often governed by the same principle, and so promoting knowledge transfer across disciplines makes valuable cross-fertilization and scientific unification possible.…

  1. Language Teacher Cognitions: Complex Dynamic Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feryok, Anne

    2010-01-01

    Language teacher cognition research is a growing field. In recent years several features of language teacher cognitions have been noted: they can be complex, ranging over a number of different subjects; they can be dynamic, changing over time and under different influences; and they can be systems, forming unified and cohesive personal or…

  2. Designing To Learn about Complex Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hmelo, Cindy E.; Holton, Douglas L.; Kolodner, Janet L.

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the presence of complex structural, behavioral, and functional relations to understanding. Reports on a design experiment in which 6th grade children learned about the human respiratory system by designing artificial lungs and building partial working models. Makes suggestions for successful learning from design activities. (Contains 44…

  3. Multivariate analysis: greater insights into complex systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Many agronomic researchers measure and collect multiple response variables in an effort to understand the more complex nature of the system being studied. Multivariate (MV) statistical methods encompass the simultaneous analysis of all random variables (RV) measured on each experimental or sampling ...

  4. Degeneracy and complexity in biological systems

    PubMed Central

    Edelman, Gerald M.; Gally, Joseph A.

    2001-01-01

    Degeneracy, the ability of elements that are structurally different to perform the same function or yield the same output, is a well known characteristic of the genetic code and immune systems. Here, we point out that degeneracy is a ubiquitous biological property and argue that it is a feature of complexity at genetic, cellular, system, and population levels. Furthermore, it is both necessary for, and an inevitable outcome of, natural selection. PMID:11698650

  5. Gaia as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed Central

    Lenton, Timothy M; van Oijen, Marcel

    2002-01-01

    We define the Gaia system of life and its environment on Earth, review the status of the Gaia theory, introduce potentially relevant concepts from complexity theory, then try to apply them to Gaia. We consider whether Gaia is a complex adaptive system (CAS) in terms of its behaviour and suggest that the system is self-organizing but does not reside in a critical state. Gaia has supported abundant life for most of the last 3.8 Gyr. Large perturbations have occasionally suppressed life but the system has always recovered without losing the capacity for large-scale free energy capture and recycling of essential elements. To illustrate how complexity theory can help us understand the emergence of planetary-scale order, we present a simple cellular automata (CA) model of the imaginary planet Daisyworld. This exhibits emergent self-regulation as a consequence of feedback coupling between life and its environment. Local spatial interaction, which was absent from the original model, can destabilize the system by generating bifurcation regimes. Variation and natural selection tend to remove this instability. With mutation in the model system, it exhibits self-organizing adaptive behaviour in its response to forcing. We close by suggesting how artificial life ('Alife') techniques may enable more comprehensive feasibility tests of Gaia. PMID:12079529

  6. Dependency visualization for complex system understanding

    SciTech Connect

    Smart, J. Allison Cory

    1994-09-01

    With the volume of software in production use dramatically increasing, the importance of software maintenance has become strikingly apparent. Techniques now sought and developed for reverse engineering and design extraction and recovery. At present, numerous commercial products and research tools exist which are capable of visualizing a variety of programming languages and software constructs. The list of new tools and services continues to grow rapidly. Although the scope of the existing commercial and academic product set is quite broad, these tools still share a common underlying problem. The ability of each tool to visually organize object representations is increasingly impaired as the number of components and component dependencies within systems increases. Regardless of how objects are defined, complex ``spaghetti`` networks result in nearly all large system cases. While this problem is immediately apparent in modem systems analysis involving large software implementations, it is not new. As will be discussed in Chapter 2, related problems involving the theory of graphs were identified long ago. This important theoretical foundation provides a useful vehicle for representing and analyzing complex system structures. While the utility of directed graph based concepts in software tool design has been demonstrated in literature, these tools still lack the capabilities necessary for large system comprehension. This foundation must therefore be expanded with new organizational and visualization constructs necessary to meet this challenge. This dissertation addresses this need by constructing a conceptual model and a set of methods for interactively exploring, organizing, and understanding the structure of complex software systems.

  7. Membrane Tethering Complexes in the Endosomal System

    PubMed Central

    Spang, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Vesicles that are generated by endocytic events at the plasma membrane are destined to early endosomes. A prerequisite for proper fusion is the tethering of two membrane entities. Tethering of vesicles to early endosomes is mediated by the class C core vacuole/endosome tethering (CORVET) complex, while fusion of late endosomes with lysosomes depends on the homotypic fusion and vacuole protein sorting (HOPS) complex. Recycling through the trans-Golgi network (TGN) and to the plasma membrane is facilitated by the Golgi associated retrograde protein (GARP) and endosome-associated recycling protein (EARP) complexes, respectively. However, there are other tethering functions in the endosomal system as there are multiple pathways through which proteins can be delivered from endosomes to either the TGN or the plasma membrane. Furthermore, proteins that may be part of novel tethering complexes have been recently identified. Thus, it is likely that more tethering factors exist. In this review, I will provide an overview of different tethering complexes of the endosomal system and discuss how they may provide specificity in membrane traffic. PMID:27243003

  8. The Neo-Liberalisation Policy Agenda and Its Consequences for Education in England: A Focus on Resistance Now and Possibilities for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maisuria, Alpesh

    2014-01-01

    In this article, the author explores the way that neo-liberalism is becoming more entrenched in the fabric of the education system in England. The article begins by setting out a very brief historical trajectory of neo-liberalism to provide a working definition of a complex and disarticulated socio-political and economic system. In part two, this…

  9. Causes of catastrophic failure in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, David A.

    2010-08-01

    Root causes of mission critical failures and major cost and schedule overruns in complex systems and programs are studied through the post-mortem analyses compiled for several examples, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Challenger and Columbia Shuttle accidents, and the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. The roles of organizational complexity, cognitive biases in decision making, the display of quantitative data, and cost and schedule pressure are all considered. Recommendations for mitigating the risk of similar failures in future programs are also provided.

  10. Complex Physical, Biophysical and Econophysical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dewar, Robert L.; Detering, Frank

    1. Introduction to complex and econophysics systems: a navigation map / T. Aste and T. Di Matteo -- 2. An introduction to fractional diffusion / B. I. Henry, T.A.M. Langlands and P. Straka -- 3. Space plasmas and fusion plasmas as complex systems / R. O. Dendy -- 4. Bayesian data analysis / M. S. Wheatland -- 5. Inverse problems and complexity in earth system science / I. G. Enting -- 6. Applied fluid chaos: designing advection with periodically reoriented flows for micro to geophysical mixing and transport enhancement / G. Metcalfe -- 7. Approaches to modelling the dynamical activity of brain function based on the electroencephalogram / D. T. J. Liley and F. Frascoli -- 8. Jaynes' maximum entropy principle, Riemannian metrics and generalised least action bound / R. K. Niven and B. Andresen -- 9. Complexity, post-genomic biology and gene expression programs / R. B. H. Williams and O. J.-H. Luo -- 10. Tutorials on agent-based modelling with NetLogo and network analysis with Pajek / M. J. Berryman and S. D. Angus.

  11. A Multifaceted Mathematical Approach for Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Alexander, F.; Anitescu, M.; Bell, J.; Brown, D.; Ferris, M.; Luskin, M.; Mehrotra, S.; Moser, B.; Pinar, A.; Tartakovsky, A.; Willcox, K.; Wright, S.; Zavala, V.

    2012-03-07

    Applied mathematics has an important role to play in developing the tools needed for the analysis, simulation, and optimization of complex problems. These efforts require the development of the mathematical foundations for scientific discovery, engineering design, and risk analysis based on a sound integrated approach for the understanding of complex systems. However, maximizing the impact of applied mathematics on these challenges requires a novel perspective on approaching the mathematical enterprise. Previous reports that have surveyed the DOE's research needs in applied mathematics have played a key role in defining research directions with the community. Although these reports have had significant impact, accurately assessing current research needs requires an evaluation of today's challenges against the backdrop of recent advances in applied mathematics and computing. To address these needs, the DOE Applied Mathematics Program sponsored a Workshop for Mathematics for the Analysis, Simulation and Optimization of Complex Systems on September 13-14, 2011. The workshop had approximately 50 participants from both the national labs and academia. The goal of the workshop was to identify new research areas in applied mathematics that will complement and enhance the existing DOE ASCR Applied Mathematics Program efforts that are needed to address problems associated with complex systems. This report describes recommendations from the workshop and subsequent analysis of the workshop findings by the organizing committee.

  12. Systems biology and complex neurobehavioral traits.

    PubMed

    Giegling, I; Hartmann, A M; Genius, J; Benninghoff, J; Möller, H-J; Rujescu, D

    2008-09-01

    There is evidence for a strong genetic component in the etiology of schizophrenia, as demonstrated by family, twin and adoption studies suggesting a heritability of about 80%. There are several approaches in the search for genetic risk factors such as linkage or association studies. Additionally, much effort was done in refining the phenotype including neuropsychology, neurophysiology, imaging or the generation of animal models. Genes becoming associated with schizophrenia have to be tested for functionality including e.g. metabolomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, generation of transgenic mice, analysis of protein-protein interactions, allele-specific RNA expression analysis, analysis of neuronal and stem cell cultures, as well as post mortem studies and behavioral studies in rodents. This amount of data requires complex data analysis. A system's perspective can help in the analysis of the structural and functional complexity of the brain. New tools will be needed for a more complex and systemic view. The systems biology approach could be a pivotal tool in understanding of complex behavior and diseases in future.

  13. Stability threshold approach for complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    A new measure to characterize the stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbations is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable of disrupting the system and switch it to an undesired dynamical regime. In the phase space, the ST corresponds to the ‘thinnest site’ of the attraction basin and therefore indicates the most ‘dangerous’ direction of perturbations. We introduce a computational algorithm for quantification of the ST and demonstrate that the suggested approach is effective and provides important insights. The generality of the obtained results defines their vast potential for application in such fields as engineering, neuroscience, power grids, Earth science and many others where the robustness of complex systems is studied.

  14. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  15. Analysis of Complex Valve and Feed Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahuja, Vineet; Hosangadi, Ashvin; Shipman, Jeremy; Cavallo, Peter; Dash, Sanford

    2007-01-01

    A numerical framework for analysis of complex valve systems supports testing of propulsive systems by simulating key valve and control system components in the test loop. In particular, it is designed to enhance the analysis capability in terms of identifying system transients and quantifying the valve response to these transients. This system has analysis capability for simulating valve motion in complex systems operating in diverse flow regimes ranging from compressible gases to cryogenic liquids. A key feature is the hybrid, unstructured framework with sub-models for grid movement and phase change including cryogenic cavitations. The multi-element unstructured framework offers improved predictions of valve performance characteristics under steady conditions for structurally complex valves such as pressure regulator valve. Unsteady simulations of valve motion using this computational approach have been carried out for various valves in operation at Stennis Space Center such as the split-body valve and the 10-in. (approx.25.4-cm) LOX (liquid oxygen) valve and the 4-in. (approx.10 cm) Y-pattern valve (liquid nitrogen). Such simulations make use of variable grid topologies, thereby permitting solution accuracy and resolving important flow physics in the seat region of the moving valve. An advantage to this software includes possible reduction in testing costs incurred due to disruptions relating to unexpected flow transients or functioning of valve/flow control systems. Prediction of the flow anomalies leading to system vibrations, flow resonance, and valve stall can help in valve scheduling and significantly reduce the need for activation tests. This framework has been evaluated for its ability to predict performance metrics like flow coefficient for cavitating venturis and valve coefficient curves, and could be a valuable tool in predicting and understanding anomalous behavior of system components at rocket propulsion testing and design sites.

  16. New Developments in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    Early years education in England has undergone a number of radical changes in the last decade. More recently, a change in government after the 2010 UK general election has meant that early years practitioners have experienced a period of uncertainty and change in policy in line with the ambitions and philosophy of the new Conservative/Liberal…

  17. Melmark New England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cancro, Lorraine

    2009-01-01

    This article features Melmark New England, a private, nonprofit, community based organization dedicated to serving children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorders, acquired brain injury, neurological diseases and disorders, and severe challenging behaviors. The Melmark parent corporation, a Pennsylvania based provider of services for those…

  18. Automated Design of Complex Dynamic Systems

    PubMed Central

    Hermans, Michiel; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Bienstman, Peter; Dambre, Joni

    2014-01-01

    Several fields of study are concerned with uniting the concept of computation with that of the design of physical systems. For example, a recent trend in robotics is to design robots in such a way that they require a minimal control effort. Another example is found in the domain of photonics, where recent efforts try to benefit directly from the complex nonlinear dynamics to achieve more efficient signal processing. The underlying goal of these and similar research efforts is to internalize a large part of the necessary computations within the physical system itself by exploiting its inherent non-linear dynamics. This, however, often requires the optimization of large numbers of system parameters, related to both the system's structure as well as its material properties. In addition, many of these parameters are subject to fabrication variability or to variations through time. In this paper we apply a machine learning algorithm to optimize physical dynamic systems. We show that such algorithms, which are normally applied on abstract computational entities, can be extended to the field of differential equations and used to optimize an associated set of parameters which determine their behavior. We show that machine learning training methodologies are highly useful in designing robust systems, and we provide a set of both simple and complex examples using models of physical dynamical systems. Interestingly, the derived optimization method is intimately related to direct collocation a method known in the field of optimal control. Our work suggests that the application domains of both machine learning and optimal control have a largely unexplored overlapping area which envelopes a novel design methodology of smart and highly complex physical systems. PMID:24497969

  19. [Complex systems variability analysis using approximate entropy].

    PubMed

    Cuestas, Eduardo

    2010-01-01

    Biological systems are highly complex systems, both spatially and temporally. They are rooted in an interdependent, redundant and pleiotropic interconnected dynamic network. The properties of a system are different from those of their parts, and they depend on the integrity of the whole. The systemic properties vanish when the system breaks down, while the properties of its components are maintained. The disease can be understood as a systemic functional alteration of the human body, which present with a varying severity, stability and durability. Biological systems are characterized by measurable complex rhythms, abnormal rhythms are associated with disease and may be involved in its pathogenesis, they are been termed "dynamic disease." Physicians have long time recognized that alterations of physiological rhythms are associated with disease. Measuring absolute values of clinical parameters yields highly significant, clinically useful information, however evaluating clinical parameters the variability provides additionally useful clinical information. The aim of this review was to study one of the most recent advances in the measurement and characterization of biological variability made possible by the development of mathematical models based on chaos theory and nonlinear dynamics, as approximate entropy, has provided us with greater ability to discern meaningful distinctions between biological signals from clinically distinct groups of patients.

  20. Multifractal Resilience Metrics for Complex Systems?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schertzer, D. J.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Lovejoy, S.

    2011-12-01

    The term resilience has become extremely fashionable, especially for complex systems, whereas corresponding operational definitions have remained rather elusive (Carpenter et al. 2001). More precisely, the resilience assessment of man-made systems (from nuclear plants to cities) to geophysical extremes require mathematically defined resilience metrics based on some conceptual definition, e.g. the often cited definition of "ecological resilience" (Hollings 1973): "the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks". Surprisingly, whereas it was acknowledged by Folke et al. (2010) that "multiscale resilience is fundamental for understanding the interplay between persistence and change, adaptability and transformability", the relation between resilience and scaling has not been so much questioned, see however Peterson (2000). We argue that is rather indispensable to go well beyond the attractor approach (Pimm and Lawton 1977; Collings and Wollkind 1990;), as well as extensions (Martin et al., 2011) into the framework of the viability theory (Aubin 1991; Aubin et al. 2011). Indeed, both are rather limited to systems that are complex only in time. Scale symmetries are indeed indispensable to reduce the space-time complexity by defining scale independent observables, which are the singularities of the original, scale dependent fields. These singularities enable to define across-scale resilience, instead of resilience at a given scale.

  1. Controlling Complex Systems and Developing Dynamic Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avizienis, Audrius Victor

    In complex systems, control and understanding become intertwined. Following Ilya Prigogine, we define complex systems as having control parameters which mediate transitions between distinct modes of dynamical behavior. From this perspective, determining the nature of control parameters and demonstrating the associated dynamical phase transitions are practically equivalent and fundamental to engaging with complexity. In the first part of this work, a control parameter is determined for a non-equilibrium electrochemical system by studying a transition in the morphology of structures produced by an electroless deposition reaction. Specifically, changing the size of copper posts used as the substrate for growing metallic silver structures by the reduction of Ag+ from solution under diffusion-limited reaction conditions causes a dynamical phase transition in the crystal growth process. For Cu posts with edge lengths on the order of one micron, local forces promoting anisotropic growth predominate, and the reaction produces interconnected networks of Ag nanowires. As the post size is increased above 10 microns, the local interfacial growth reaction dynamics couple with the macroscopic diffusion field, leading to spatially propagating instabilities in the electrochemical potential which induce periodic branching during crystal growth, producing dendritic deposits. This result is interesting both as an example of control and understanding in a complex system, and as a useful combination of top-down lithography with bottom-up electrochemical self-assembly. The second part of this work focuses on the technological development of devices fabricated using this non-equilibrium electrochemical process, towards a goal of integrating a complex network as a dynamic functional component in a neuromorphic computing device. Self-assembled networks of silver nanowires were reacted with sulfur to produce interfacial "atomic switches": silver-silver sulfide junctions, which exhibit

  2. Toward simulating complex systems with quantum effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenion-Hanrath, Rachel Lynn

    Quantum effects like tunneling, coherence, and zero point energy often play a significant role in phenomena on the scales of atoms and molecules. However, the exact quantum treatment of a system scales exponentially with dimensionality, making it impractical for characterizing reaction rates and mechanisms in complex systems. An ongoing effort in the field of theoretical chemistry and physics is extending scalable, classical trajectory-based simulation methods capable of capturing quantum effects to describe dynamic processes in many-body systems; in the work presented here we explore two such techniques. First, we detail an explicit electron, path integral (PI)-based simulation protocol for predicting the rate of electron transfer in condensed-phase transition metal complex systems. Using a PI representation of the transferring electron and a classical representation of the transition metal complex and solvent atoms, we compute the outer sphere free energy barrier and dynamical recrossing factor of the electron transfer rate while accounting for quantum tunneling and zero point energy effects. We are able to achieve this employing only a single set of force field parameters to describe the system rather than parameterizing along the reaction coordinate. Following our success in describing a simple model system, we discuss our next steps in extending our protocol to technologically relevant materials systems. The latter half focuses on the Mixed Quantum-Classical Initial Value Representation (MQC-IVR) of real-time correlation functions, a semiclassical method which has demonstrated its ability to "tune'' between quantum- and classical-limit correlation functions while maintaining dynamic consistency. Specifically, this is achieved through a parameter that determines the quantumness of individual degrees of freedom. Here, we derive a semiclassical correction term for the MQC-IVR to systematically characterize the error introduced by different choices of simulation

  3. Synchronization in node of complex networks consist of complex chaotic system

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Qiang; Xie, Cheng-jun; Liu, Hong-jun; Li, Yan-hui

    2014-07-15

    A new synchronization method is investigated for node of complex networks consists of complex chaotic system. When complex networks realize synchronization, different component of complex state variable synchronize up to different scaling complex function by a designed complex feedback controller. This paper change synchronization scaling function from real field to complex field for synchronization in node of complex networks with complex chaotic system. Synchronization in constant delay and time-varying coupling delay complex networks are investigated, respectively. Numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. Endogenous Biologically Inspired Art of Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    Ji, Haru; Wakefield, Graham

    2016-01-01

    Since 2007, Graham Wakefield and Haru Ji have looked to nature for inspiration as they have created a series of "artificial natures," or interactive visualizations of biologically inspired complex systems that can evoke nature-like aesthetic experiences within mixed-reality art installations. This article describes how they have applied visualization, sonification, and interaction design in their work with artificial ecosystems and organisms using specific examples from their exhibited installations.

  5. Cyberspace: The Ultimate Complex Adaptive System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-05

    capable of a transaction with a given agent; tags also facilitate the formation of aggregates , or meta-agents. Meta-agents help distrib- ute and... Mbps or Gbps through communications links Path Roads, Rails, Flight Path, Sea- lanes Links, Connections Terrain Hills, Valleys, Urban Canyons... aggregate of many factors, both local and global. Unfit agents are more likely to instigate schema change. What is a Complex Adaptive System? This

  6. Geomorphology of New England

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Denny, C.S.

    1982-01-01

    Widely scattered terrestrial deposits of Cretaceous or Tertiary age and extensive nearshore and fluvial Coastal Plain deposits now largely beneath the sea indicate that the New England region has been above sea level during and since the Late Cretaceous. Estimates of rates of erosion based on sediment load in rivers and on volume of sediments in the Coastal Plain suggest that if the New England highlands had not been uplifted in the Miocene, the area would now be largely a lowland. If the estimated rates of erosion and uplift are of the right order of magnitude, then it is extremely unlikely that any part of the present landscape dates back before Miocene time. The only exception would be lowlands eroded in the early Mesozoic, later buried beneath Mesozoic and Cenozoic deposits, and exhumed by stream and glacial erosion during the later Cenozoic. Many of the rocks in the New England highlands are similar to those that underlie the Piedmont province in the central and southern Appalachians, where the relief over large areas is much less than in the highlands of New England. These comparisons suggest that the New England highlands have been upwarped in late Cenozoic time. The uplift took place in the Miocene and may have continued into the Quaternary. The New England landscape is primarily controlled by the underlying bedrock. Erosion and deposition during the Quaternary, related in large part to glaciation, have produced only minor changes in drainage and in topography. Shale and graywacke of Ordovician, Cambrian, and Proterozoic age forming the Taconic highlands, and akalic plutonic rocks of Mesozoic age are all highland makers. Sandstone and shale of Jurassic and Triassic age, similar rocks of Carboniferous age, and dolomite, limestone, and shale of Ordovician and Cambrian age commonly underlie lowlands. High-grade metapelites are more resistant than similar schists of low metamorphic grade and form the highest mountains in New England. Feldspathic rocks tend to

  7. Complex Engineered Systems: A New Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mina, Ali A.; Braha, Dan; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    Human history is often seen as an inexorable march towards greater complexity — in ideas, artifacts, social, political and economic systems, technology, and in the structure of life itself. While we do not have detailed knowledge of ancient times, it is reasonable to conclude that the average resident of New York City today faces a world of much greater complexity than the average denizen of Carthage or Tikal. A careful consideration of this change, however, suggests that most of it has occurred recently, and has been driven primarily by the emergence of technology as a force in human life. In the 4000 years separating the Indus Valley Civilization from 18th century Europe, human transportation evolved from the bullock cart to the hansom, and the methods of communication used by George Washington did not differ significantly from those used by Alexander or Rameses. The world has moved radically towards greater complexity in the last two centuries. We have moved from buggies and letter couriers to airplanes and the Internet — an increase in capacity, and through its diversity also in complexity, orders of magnitude greater than that accumulated through the rest of human history. In addition to creating iconic artifacts — the airplane, the car, the computer, the television, etc. — this change has had a profound effect on the scope of experience by creating massive, connected and multiultra- level systems — traffic networks, power grids, markets, multinational corporations — that defy analytical understanding and seem to have a life of their own. This is where complexity truly enters our lives.

  8. Polish Complementary Schools in Iceland and England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zielinska, Malgorzata; Kowzan, Piotr; Ragnarsdóttir, Hanna

    2014-01-01

    Since 2004, the opening of labour markets has spurred a considerable number of Poles to emigrate e.g. to Iceland and England. Families with school age children have had the challenge of adapting to foreign environments and school systems. Polish complementary schools have played an important, albeit ambivalent, role in this process. Through focus…

  9. The Current Brouhaha about Standards in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2010-01-01

    Following a report by a Parliamentary Committee, the Higher Education Funding Council for England is consulting the sector about a strengthened national quality assurance system, with an enhanced role for information about quality and a closer focus on academic standards. This article provides a critical review of the main proposals.

  10. Complexity for Survival of Living Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    2009-01-01

    A logical connection between the survivability of living systems and the complexity of their behavior (equivalently, mental complexity) has been established. This connection is an important intermediate result of continuing research on mathematical models that could constitute a unified representation of the evolution of both living and non-living systems. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the two most relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO- 21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; and Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO- 30634) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72. As used here, living systems is synonymous with active systems and intelligent systems. The quoted terms can signify artificial agents (e.g., suitably programmed computers) or natural biological systems ranging from single-cell organisms at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. One of the requirements that must be satisfied in mathematical modeling of living systems is reconciliation of evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics. In the approach followed in this research, this reconciliation is effected by means of a model, inspired partly by quantum mechanics, in which the quantum potential is replaced with an information potential. The model captures the most fundamental property of life - the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The model incorporates the equations of classical dynamics, including Newton s equations of motion and equations for random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces. The equations of classical dynamics are coupled with corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces that are

  11. A comparison of ventilator-associated pneumonia rates determined by different scoring systems in four intensive care units in the North West of England.

    PubMed

    Wallace, F A; Alexander, P D G; Spencer, C; Naisbitt, J; Moore, J A; McGrath, B A

    2015-11-01

    Ventilator-associated pneumonia is a common healthcare-associated infection with significant mortality, morbidity and healthcare cost, and rates have been proposed as a potential quality indicator. We examined ventilator-associated pneumonia rates as determined by different diagnostic scoring systems across four adult intensive care units in the North West of England. We also collected clinical opinions as to whether patients had ventilator-associated pneumonia, and whether patients were receiving antibiotics as treatment. Pooled ventilator-associated pneumonia rates were 36.3, 22.2, 15.2 and 1.1 per 1000 ventilator-bed days depending on the scoring system used. There was significant within-unit heterogeneity for ventilator-associated pneumonia rates calculated by the various scoring systems (all p < 0.001). Clinical opinion and antibiotic use did not correlate well with the scoring systems (k = 0.23 and k = 0.17, respectively). We therefore question whether the ventilator-associated pneumonia rate as measured by existing tools is either useful or desirable as a quality indicator.

  12. Network representations of immune system complexity

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, Naeha; Torabi-Parizi, Parizad; Gottschalk, Rachel A.; Germain, Ronald N.; Dutta, Bhaskar

    2015-01-01

    The mammalian immune system is a dynamic multi-scale system composed of a hierarchically organized set of molecular, cellular and organismal networks that act in concert to promote effective host defense. These networks range from those involving gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions underlying intracellular signaling pathways and single cell responses to increasingly complex networks of in vivo cellular interaction, positioning and migration that determine the overall immune response of an organism. Immunity is thus not the product of simple signaling events but rather non-linear behaviors arising from dynamic, feedback-regulated interactions among many components. One of the major goals of systems immunology is to quantitatively measure these complex multi-scale spatial and temporal interactions, permitting development of computational models that can be used to predict responses to perturbation. Recent technological advances permit collection of comprehensive datasets at multiple molecular and cellular levels while advances in network biology support representation of the relationships of components at each level as physical or functional interaction networks. The latter facilitate effective visualization of patterns and recognition of emergent properties arising from the many interactions of genes, molecules, and cells of the immune system. We illustrate the power of integrating ‘omics’ and network modeling approaches for unbiased reconstruction of signaling and transcriptional networks with a focus on applications involving the innate immune system. We further discuss future possibilities for reconstruction of increasingly complex cellular and organism-level networks and development of sophisticated computational tools for prediction of emergent immune behavior arising from the concerted action of these networks. PMID:25625853

  13. Complex Generalized Synchronization and Parameter Identification of Nonidentical Nonlinear Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shibing; Wang, Xingyuan; Han, Bo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, generalized synchronization (GS) is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new synchronization scheme, complex generalized synchronization (CGS). Based on Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller and parameter update laws are designed to realize CGS and parameter identification of two nonidentical chaotic (hyperchaotic) complex systems with respect to a given complex map vector. This scheme is applied to synchronize a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, a chaotic complex Chen system and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, as well as a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a chaotic complexsystem with fully unknown parameters. The corresponding numerical simulations illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme. PMID:27014879

  14. Propagating wave correlations in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Creagh, Stephen C.; Gradoni, Gabriele; Hartmann, Timo; Tanner, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    We describe a novel approach for computing wave correlation functions inside finite spatial domains driven by complex and statistical sources. By exploiting semiclassical approximations, we provide explicit algorithms to calculate the local mean of these correlation functions in terms of the underlying classical dynamics. By defining appropriate ensemble averages, we show that fluctuations about the mean can be characterised in terms of classical correlations. We give in particular an explicit expression relating fluctuations of diagonal contributions to those of the full wave correlation function. The methods have a wide range of applications both in quantum mechanics and for classical wave problems such as in vibro-acoustics and electromagnetism. We apply the methods here to simple quantum systems, so-called quantum maps, which model the behaviour of generic problems on Poincaré sections. Although low-dimensional, these models exhibit a chaotic classical limit and share common characteristics with wave propagation in complex structures.

  15. Addressing the Complexity of the Earth System

    SciTech Connect

    Nobre, Carlos; Brasseur, Guy P.; Shapiro, Melvyn; Lahsen, Myanna; Brunet, Gilbert; Busalacchi, Antonio; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Seitzinger, Sybil; Noone, Kevin; Ometto, Jean P.

    2010-10-01

    This paper highlights the role of the Earth-system biosphere and illustrates the complex: biosphere-atmosphere interactions in the Amazon Basin, changes in nitrogen cycling, ocean chemistry, and land use. It introduces three important requirements for accelerating the development and use of Earth system information. The first requirement is to develop Earth system analysis and prediction models that account for multi-scale physical, chemical and biological processes, including their interactions in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system. The development of these models requires partnerships between academia, national research centers, and operational prediction facilities, and builds upon accomplishments in weather and climate predictions. They will highlight the regional aspects of global change, and include modules for water system, agriculture, forestry, energy, air quality, health, etc. The second requirement is to model the interactions between humans and the weather-climate-biogeochemical system. The third requirement is to introduce novel methodologies to account for societal drivers, impacts and feedbacks. This is a challenging endeavor requiring creative solutions and some compromising because human behavior cannot be fully represented within the framework of present-day physical prediction systems.

  16. Flowgraph Models for Complex Multistate System Reliabiliy.

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, B. J.; Huzurbazar, A. V.

    2005-01-01

    This chapter reviews flowgraph models for complex multistate systems. The focus is on modeling data from semi-Markov processes and constructing likelihoods when different portions of the system data are censored and incomplete. Semi-Markov models play an important role in the analysis of time to event data. However, in practice, data analysis for semi-Markov processes can be quite difficult and many simplifying assumptions are made. Flowgraph models are multistate models that provide a data analytic method for semi-Markov processes. Flowgraphs are useful for estimating Bayes predictive densities, predictive reliability functions, and predictive hazard functions for waiting times of interest in the presence of censored and incomplete data. This chapter reviews data analysis for flowgraph models and then presents methods for constructing likelihoods when portions of the system data are missing.

  17. Simulating Complex Window Systems using BSDF Data

    SciTech Connect

    Konstantoglou, Maria; Jonsson, Jacob; Lee, Eleanor

    2009-06-22

    Nowadays, virtual models are commonly used to evaluate the performance of conventional window systems. Complex fenestration systems can be difficult to simulate accurately not only because of their geometry but also because of their optical properties that scatter light in an unpredictable manner. Bi-directional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF) have recently been developed based on a mixture of measurements and modelling to characterize the optics of such systems. This paper describes the workflow needed to create then use these BSDF datasets in the Radiance lighting simulation software. Limited comparisons are made between visualizations produced using the standard ray-tracing method, the BSDF method, and that taken in a full-scale outdoor mockup.

  18. PREFACE: Complex Dynamics in Spatially Extended Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Bohr, Tomas; Rasmussen, Jens Juul; Leth Christiansen, Peter

    1996-01-01

    Self-organization, or the spontaneous emergence of patterns and structures under far-from-equilibrium conditions, turbulence, and related nonlinear dynamic phenomena in spatially extended systems have developed into one of the most exciting topics of modern science. Phenomena of this type arise in a wide variety of different fields, ranging from the development of chemical and biological patterns in reaction-diffusion systems over vortex formation in connection with chemical, optical, hydrodynamic or magnetohydrodynamic turbulence to technical applications in connection with liquid crystal displays or pulse compression in optical communication systems. Lasers often show interesting patterns produced by self-focusing and other nonlinear phenomena, diffusion limited aggregation is known to generate fractal-like structures, and amazing struc- tures also arise in bacterial growth processes or when a droplet of an oil suspension of finely divided magnetic particles is subject to a magnetic field perpendicular to the surface of the cell in which it is contained. In September 1995 the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen was the venue of an International Conference on Complex Dynamics in Spatially Extended Systems. Organizers of the conference were the three Danish centers for nonlinear dynamics: The Center for Chaos and Turbulence Studies (CATS), located at the Niels Bohr Institute; the Center for Modeling, Nonlinear Dynamics and Irreversible Thermodynamics (MIDIT), located at the Technical University of Denmark, and the Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Continuum Systems, located at the Risø National Laboratories. In the spirit of the successful NATO Advanced Research Workshops on Spatiotemporal Patterns in Nonequilibrium Systems of which the last was held in Santa Fe, New Mexico in 1993, the conference aimed at stimulating new ideas and providing a forum for the exchange of knowledge between leading practitioners of the field. With its 50 invited speakers and more than

  19. Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaotic and Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Infeld, E.; Zelazny, R.; Galkowski, A.

    2011-04-01

    Part I. Dynamic Systems Bifurcation Theory and Chaos: 1. Chaos in random dynamical systems V. M. Gunldach; 2. Controlling chaos using embedded unstable periodic orbits: the problem of optimal periodic orbits B. R. Hunt and E. Ott; 3. Chaotic tracer dynamics in open hydrodynamical flows G. Karolyi, A. Pentek, T. Tel and Z. Toroczkai; 4. Homoclinic chaos L. P. Shilnikov; Part II. Spatially Extended Systems: 5. Hydrodynamics of relativistic probability flows I. Bialynicki-Birula; 6. Waves in ionic reaction-diffusion-migration systems P. Hasal, V. Nevoral, I. Schreiber, H. Sevcikova, D. Snita, and M. Marek; 7. Anomalous scaling in turbulence: a field theoretical approach V. Lvov and I. Procaccia; 8. Abelian sandpile cellular automata M. Markosova; 9. Transport in an incompletely chaotic magnetic field F. Spineanu; Part III. Dynamical Chaos Quantum Physics and Foundations Of Statistical Mechanics: 10. Non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and ergodic theory L. A. Bunimovich; 11. Pseudochaos in statistical physics B. Chirikov; 12. Foundations of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics J. P. Dougherty; 13. Thermomechanical particle simulations W. G. Hoover, H. A. Posch, C. H. Dellago, O. Kum, C. G. Hoover, A. J. De Groot and B. L. Holian; 14. Quantum dynamics on a Markov background and irreversibility B. Pavlov; 15. Time chaos and the laws of nature I. Prigogine and D. J. Driebe; 16. Evolutionary Q and cognitive systems: dynamic entropies and predictability of evolutionary processes W. Ebeling; 17. Spatiotemporal chaos information processing in neural networks H. Szu; 18. Phase transitions and learning in neural networks C. Van den Broeck; 19. Synthesis of chaos A. Vanecek and S. Celikovsky; 20. Computational complexity of continuous problems H. Wozniakowski; Part IV. Complex Systems As An Interface Between Natural Sciences and Environmental Social and Economic Sciences: 21. Stochastic differential geometry in finance studies V. G. Makhankov; Part V. Conference Banquet

  20. Safety assurance of complex integrated systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abrignani, Vincent A.; Jordan, John R.

    1991-01-01

    Interface hazard analysis (IHA) is used as a 'tool' to systematically assess safety for the integration of a diverse set of experiments and payload hardware into the Spacelab carrier which flies in the Space Shuttle's Orbiter cargo bay. The IHA when performed by a thorough analysis provides safety assurance of complex integrated systems by systematically linking analysis efforts performed by the organizations thus providing the respective elements to be integrated into an objective, unique analysis. Particular attention is given to verification methods of the safety assurance of the Spacelab carrier and its experiment payload for which the IHA was performed.

  1. Ultrametricity in the theory of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozyrev, S. V.

    2015-11-01

    We review applications of p-adic and ultrametric methods in the theory of complex systems. We consider the following examples: the p-adic parameterization of the Parisi matrix in the replica method; the method of hierarchical (interbasin) kinetics, which allows describing macromolecular dynamics by models of ultrametric diffusion; the two-dimensional 2-adic parameterization of the genetic code, which demonstrates that degenerations of the genetic code are described by local constancy domains of maps in the 2-adic metric. We discuss clustering methods for a family of metrics and demonstrate that the multiclustering (ensemble clustering) approach is related to the Bruhat-Tits building theory.

  2. Assessment Environment for Complex Systems Software Guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2013-01-01

    This Software Guide (SG) describes the software developed to test the Assessment Environment for Complex Systems (AECS) by the West Virginia High Technology Consortium (WVHTC) Foundation's Mission Systems Group (MSG) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD). This software is referred to as the AECS Test Project throughout the remainder of this document. AECS provides a framework for developing, simulating, testing, and analyzing modern avionics systems within an Integrated Modular Avionics (IMA) architecture. The purpose of the AECS Test Project is twofold. First, it provides a means to test the AECS hardware and system developed by MSG. Second, it provides an example project upon which future AECS research may be based. This Software Guide fully describes building, installing, and executing the AECS Test Project as well as its architecture and design. The design of the AECS hardware is described in the AECS Hardware Guide. Instructions on how to configure, build and use the AECS are described in the User's Guide. Sample AECS software, developed by the WVHTC Foundation, is presented in the AECS Software Guide. The AECS Hardware Guide, AECS User's Guide, and AECS Software Guide are authored by MSG. The requirements set forth for AECS are presented in the Statement of Work for the Assessment Environment for Complex Systems authored by NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC). The intended audience for this document includes software engineers, hardware engineers, project managers, and quality assurance personnel from WVHTC Foundation (the suppliers of the software), NASA (the customer), and future researchers (users of the software). Readers are assumed to have general knowledge in the field of real-time, embedded computer software development.

  3. Theoretical kinetic computations in complex reacting systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bittker, David A.

    1986-01-01

    Nasa Lewis' studies of complex reacting systems at high temperature are discussed. The changes which occur are the result of many different chemical reactions occurring at the same time. Both an experimental and a theoretical approach are needed to fully understand what happens in these systems. The latter approach is discussed. The differential equations which describe the chemical and thermodynamic changes are given. Their solution by numerical techniques using a detailed chemical mechanism is described. Several different comparisons of computed results with experimental measurements are also given. These include the computation of (1) species concentration profiles in batch and flow reactions, (2) rocket performance in nozzle expansions, and (3) pressure versus time profiles in hydrocarbon ignition processes. The examples illustrate the use of detailed kinetic computations to elucidate a chemical mechanism and to compute practical quantities such as rocket performance, ignition delay times, and ignition lengths in flow processes.

  4. Contrarian behavior in a complex adaptive system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Y.; An, K. N.; Yang, G.; Huang, J. P.

    2013-01-01

    Contrarian behavior is a kind of self-organization in complex adaptive systems (CASs). Here we report the existence of a transition point in a model resource-allocation CAS with contrarian behavior by using human experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analysis. The resource ratio and system predictability serve as the tuning parameter and order parameter, respectively. The transition point helps to reveal the positive or negative role of contrarian behavior. This finding is in contrast to the common belief that contrarian behavior always has a positive role in resource allocation, say, stabilizing resource allocation by shrinking the redundancy or the lack of resources. It is further shown that resource allocation can be optimized at the transition point by adding an appropriate size of contrarians. This work is also expected to be of value to some other fields ranging from management and social science to ecology and evolution.

  5. Innovative Design of Complex Engineering Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

    2004-01-01

    The document contains the proceedings of the training workshop on Innovative Design of Complex Engineering Systems. The workshop was held at the Peninsula Higher Education Center, Hampton, Virginia, March 23 and 24, 2004. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University and NASA. Workshop attendees came from NASA, other government agencies, industry and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to a) provide broad overviews of the diverse activities related to innovative design of high-tech engineering systems; and b) identify training needs for future aerospace work force development in the design area. The format of the workshop included fifteen, half-hour overview-type presentations, a panel discussion on how to teach and train engineers in innovative design, and three exhibits by commercial vendors.

  6. Contrarian behavior in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Liang, Y; An, K N; Yang, G; Huang, J P

    2013-01-01

    Contrarian behavior is a kind of self-organization in complex adaptive systems (CASs). Here we report the existence of a transition point in a model resource-allocation CAS with contrarian behavior by using human experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analysis. The resource ratio and system predictability serve as the tuning parameter and order parameter, respectively. The transition point helps to reveal the positive or negative role of contrarian behavior. This finding is in contrast to the common belief that contrarian behavior always has a positive role in resource allocation, say, stabilizing resource allocation by shrinking the redundancy or the lack of resources. It is further shown that resource allocation can be optimized at the transition point by adding an appropriate size of contrarians. This work is also expected to be of value to some other fields ranging from management and social science to ecology and evolution.

  7. Alarm system for a nuclear control complex

    DOEpatents

    Scarola, Kenneth; Jamison, David S.; Manazir, Richard M.; Rescorl, Robert L.; Harmon, Daryl L.

    1994-01-01

    An advanced control room complex for a nuclear power plant, including a discrete indicator and alarm system (72) which is nuclear qualified for rapid response to changes in plant parameters and a component control system (64) which together provide a discrete monitoring and control capability at a panel (14-22, 26, 28) in the control room (10). A separate data processing system (70), which need not be nuclear qualified, provides integrated and overview information to the control room and to each panel, through CRTs (84) and a large, overhead integrated process status overview board (24). The discrete indicator and alarm system (72) and the data processing system (70) receive inputs from common plant sensors and validate the sensor outputs to arrive at a representative value of the parameter for use by the operator during both normal and accident conditions, thereby avoiding the need for him to assimilate data from each sensor individually. The integrated process status board (24) is at the apex of an information hierarchy that extends through four levels and provides access at each panel to the full display hierarchy. The control room panels are preferably of a modular construction, permitting the definition of inputs and outputs, the man machine interface, and the plant specific algorithms, to proceed in parallel with the fabrication of the panels, the installation of the equipment and the generic testing thereof.

  8. Topological analysis of complexity in multiagent systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abaid, Nicole; Bollt, Erik; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2012-04-01

    Social organisms at every level of evolutionary complexity live in groups, such as fish schools, locust swarms, and bird flocks. The complex exchange of multifaceted information across group members may result in a spectrum of salient spatiotemporal patterns characterizing collective behaviors. While instances of collective behavior in animal groups are readily identifiable by trained and untrained observers, a working definition to distinguish these patterns from raw data is not yet established. In this work, we define collective behavior as a manifestation of low-dimensional manifolds in the group motion and we quantify the complexity of such behaviors through the dimensionality of these structures. We demonstrate this definition using the ISOMAP algorithm, a data-driven machine learning algorithm for dimensionality reduction originally formulated in the context of image processing. We apply the ISOMAP algorithm to data from an interacting self-propelled particle model with additive noise, whose parameters are selected to exhibit different behavioral modalities, and from a video of a live fish school. Based on simulations of such model, we find that increasing noise in the system of particles corresponds to increasing the dimensionality of the structures underlying their motion. These low-dimensional structures are absent in simulations where particles do not interact. Applying the ISOMAP algorithm to fish school data, we identify similar low-dimensional structures, which may act as quantitative evidence for order inherent in collective behavior of animal groups. These results offer an unambiguous method for measuring order in data from large-scale biological systems and confirm the emergence of collective behavior in an applicable mathematical model, thus demonstrating that such models are capable of capturing phenomena observed in animal groups.

  9. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  10. Complexity and Diversity of Digraphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertz, Steven H.; Pereira, Gil Z.; Zamfirescu, Christina M. D.

    There has been a great deal of ferment in `Complexity Science' in recent years, as chronicled in the proceedings of the New England Complex Systems Institute's International Conference on Complex Systems [Minai & Bar-Yam 2006, 2008] and those of the Santa Fe Institute [Nadel & Stein 1995, Cowan 1994]. We have been primarily focused on developing metrics of complexity relevant to chemistry, especially synthetic chemistry [Bertz 2003a-c]. Our approach involves abstracting a molecule or a plan for its synthesis as a graph and then using the tools of graph theory to characterize its complexity and diversity.

  11. Automatic restart of complex irrigation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Werner, H.D.; Alcock, R.; DeBoer, D.W.; Olson, D.I. . Dept. of Agricultural Engineering)

    1992-05-01

    Automatic restart of irrigation systems under load management has the potential to maximize pumping time during off-peak hours. Existing automation technology ranges from time delay relays to more sophisticated control using computers together with weather data to optimize irrigation practices. Centrifugal pumps and water hammer concerns prevent automatic restart of common but often complex irrigation systems in South Dakota. The irrigator must manually prime the pump and control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Methods to prime centrifugal pumps and control water hammer facilitate automatic restart after load management is released. Seven priming methods and three water hammer control methods were investigated. A sump pump and small vacuum pump were used to test two automatic prime and restart systems in the laboratory. A variable frequency phase converter was also used to automatically control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Economical methods to safely prime and restart centrifugal pumps were discussed. The water hammer control methods safely pressurize the pipeline but require a higher initial investment. The automatic restart systems can be used to safely restart centrifugal pumps and control water hammer after load management is released. Based upon laboratory research and a technical review of available restart components, a computer software program was developed. The program assists customers in evaluating various restart options for automatic restarting of electric irrigation pumps. For further information on the software program, contact the South Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Engineering.

  12. Optimal control of complex atomic quantum systems

    PubMed Central

    van Frank, S.; Bonneau, M.; Schmiedmayer, J.; Hild, S.; Gross, C.; Cheneau, M.; Bloch, I.; Pichler, T.; Negretti, A.; Calarco, T.; Montangero, S.

    2016-01-01

    Quantum technologies will ultimately require manipulating many-body quantum systems with high precision. Cold atom experiments represent a stepping stone in that direction: a high degree of control has been achieved on systems of increasing complexity. However, this control is still sub-optimal. In many scenarios, achieving a fast transformation is crucial to fight against decoherence and imperfection effects. Optimal control theory is believed to be the ideal candidate to bridge the gap between early stage proof-of-principle demonstrations and experimental protocols suitable for practical applications. Indeed, it can engineer protocols at the quantum speed limit – the fastest achievable timescale of the transformation. Here, we demonstrate such potential by computing theoretically and verifying experimentally the optimal transformations in two very different interacting systems: the coherent manipulation of motional states of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate and the crossing of a quantum phase transition in small systems of cold atoms in optical lattices. We also show that such processes are robust with respect to perturbations, including temperature and atom number fluctuations. PMID:27725688

  13. Optimal control of complex atomic quantum systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Frank, S.; Bonneau, M.; Schmiedmayer, J.; Hild, S.; Gross, C.; Cheneau, M.; Bloch, I.; Pichler, T.; Negretti, A.; Calarco, T.; Montangero, S.

    2016-10-01

    Quantum technologies will ultimately require manipulating many-body quantum systems with high precision. Cold atom experiments represent a stepping stone in that direction: a high degree of control has been achieved on systems of increasing complexity. However, this control is still sub-optimal. In many scenarios, achieving a fast transformation is crucial to fight against decoherence and imperfection effects. Optimal control theory is believed to be the ideal candidate to bridge the gap between early stage proof-of-principle demonstrations and experimental protocols suitable for practical applications. Indeed, it can engineer protocols at the quantum speed limit – the fastest achievable timescale of the transformation. Here, we demonstrate such potential by computing theoretically and verifying experimentally the optimal transformations in two very different interacting systems: the coherent manipulation of motional states of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate and the crossing of a quantum phase transition in small systems of cold atoms in optical lattices. We also show that such processes are robust with respect to perturbations, including temperature and atom number fluctuations.

  14. Herd behavior in a complex adaptive system

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Li; Yang, Guang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Yu; Huang, J. P.; Ohashi, Hirotada; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2011-01-01

    In order to survive, self-serving agents in various kinds of complex adaptive systems (CASs) must compete against others for sharing limited resources with biased or unbiased distribution by conducting strategic behaviors. This competition can globally result in the balance of resource allocation. As a result, most of the agents and species can survive well. However, it is a common belief that the formation of a herd in a CAS will cause excess volatility, which can ruin the balance of resource allocation in the CAS. Here this belief is challenged with the results obtained from a modeled resource-allocation system. Based on this system, we designed and conducted a series of computer-aided human experiments including herd behavior. We also performed agent-based simulations and theoretical analyses, in order to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that, as long as the ratio of the two resources for allocation is biased enough, the formation of a typically sized herd can help the system to reach the balanced state. This resource ratio also serves as the critical point for a class of phase transition identified herein, which can be used to discover the role change of herd behavior, from a ruinous one to a helpful one. This work is also of value to some fields, ranging from management and social science, to ecology and evolution, and to physics. PMID:21876133

  15. Herd behavior in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Li; Yang, Guang; Wang, Wei; Chen, Yu; Huang, J P; Ohashi, Hirotada; Stanley, H Eugene

    2011-09-13

    In order to survive, self-serving agents in various kinds of complex adaptive systems (CASs) must compete against others for sharing limited resources with biased or unbiased distribution by conducting strategic behaviors. This competition can globally result in the balance of resource allocation. As a result, most of the agents and species can survive well. However, it is a common belief that the formation of a herd in a CAS will cause excess volatility, which can ruin the balance of resource allocation in the CAS. Here this belief is challenged with the results obtained from a modeled resource-allocation system. Based on this system, we designed and conducted a series of computer-aided human experiments including herd behavior. We also performed agent-based simulations and theoretical analyses, in order to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that, as long as the ratio of the two resources for allocation is biased enough, the formation of a typically sized herd can help the system to reach the balanced state. This resource ratio also serves as the critical point for a class of phase transition identified herein, which can be used to discover the role change of herd behavior, from a ruinous one to a helpful one. This work is also of value to some fields, ranging from management and social science, to ecology and evolution, and to physics.

  16. Orbital Architectures of Dynamically Complex Exoplanet Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Benjamin E.

    2015-01-01

    The most powerful constraints on planet formation will come from characterizing the dynamical state of complex multi-planet systems. Unfortunately, with that complexity comes a number of factors that make analyzing these systems a computationally challenging endeavor: the sheer number of model parameters, a wonky shaped posterior distribution, and hundreds to thousands of time series measurements. We develop a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC) to tackle these difficult aspects of data analysis. We apply RUN DMC to two classic multi-planet systems from radial velocity surveys, 55 Cancri and GJ 876. For 55 Cancri, we find the inner-most planet "e" must be coplanar to within 40 degrees of the outer planets, otherwise Kozai-like perturbations will cause the planet's orbit to cross the stellar surface. We find the orbits of planets "b" and "c" are apsidally aligned and librating with low to median amplitude (50±610 degrees), but they are not orbiting in a mean-motion resonance. For GJ 876, we can meaningfully constrain the three-dimensional orbital architecture of all the planets based on the radial velocity data alone. By demanding orbital stability, we find the resonant planets have low mutual inclinations (Φ) so they must be roughly coplanar (Φcb = 1.41±0.620.57 degrees and Φbe = 3.87±1.991.86 degrees). The three-dimensional Laplace argument librates with an amplitude of 50.5±7.910.0 degrees, indicating significant past disk migration and ensuring long-term stability. These empirically derived models will provide new challenges for planet formation models and motivate the need for more sophisticated algorithms to analyze exoplanet data.

  17. Empirical and theoretical analysis of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Guannan

    This thesis is an interdisciplinary work under the heading of complexity science which focuses on an arguably common "hard" problem across physics, finance and biology [1], to quantify and mimic the macroscopic "emergent phenomenon" in large-scale systems consisting of many interacting "particles" governed by microscopic rules. In contrast to traditional statistical physics, we are interested in systems whose dynamics are subject to feedback, evolution, adaption, openness, etc. Global financial markets, like the stock market and currency market, are ideal candidate systems for such a complexity study: there exists a vast amount of accurate data, which is the aggregate output of many autonomous agents continuously competing with each other. We started by examining the ultrafast "mini flash crash (MFC)" events in the US stock market. An abrupt system-wide composition transition from a mixed human machine phase to a new all-machine phase is uncovered, and a novel theory developed to explain this observation. Then in the study of FX market, we found an unexpected variation in the synchronicity of price changes in different market subsections as a function of the overall trading activity. Several survival models have been tested in analyzing the distribution of waiting times to the next price change. In the region of long waiting-times, the distribution for each currency pair exhibits a power law with exponent in the vicinity of 3.5. By contrast, for short waiting times only, the market activity can be mimicked by the fluctuations emerging from a finite resource competition model containing multiple agents with limited rationality (so called El Farol Model). Switching to the biomedical domain, we present a minimal mathematical model built around a co-evolving resource network and cell population, yielding good agreement with primary tumors in mice experiment and with clinical metastasis data. In the quest to understand contagion phenomena in systems where social group

  18. Complex biological and bio-inspired systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ecke, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    The understanding and characterization ofthe fundamental processes of the function of biological systems underpins many of the important challenges facing American society, from the pathology of infectious disease and the efficacy ofvaccines, to the development of materials that mimic biological functionality and deliver exceptional and novel structural and dynamic properties. These problems are fundamentally complex, involving many interacting components and poorly understood bio-chemical kinetics. We use the basic science of statistical physics, kinetic theory, cellular bio-chemistry, soft-matter physics, and information science to develop cell level models and explore the use ofbiomimetic materials. This project seeks to determine how cell level processes, such as response to mechanical stresses, chemical constituents and related gradients, and other cell signaling mechanisms, integrate and combine to create a functioning organism. The research focuses on the basic physical processes that take place at different levels ofthe biological organism: the basic role of molecular and chemical interactions are investigated, the dynamics of the DNA-molecule and its phylogenetic role are examined and the regulatory networks of complex biochemical processes are modeled. These efforts may lead to early warning algorithms ofpathogen outbreaks, new bio-sensors to detect hazards from pathomic viruses to chemical contaminants. Other potential applications include the development of efficient bio-fuel alternative-energy processes and the exploration ofnovel materials for energy usages. Finally, we use the notion of 'coarse-graining,' which is a method for averaging over less important degrees of freedom to develop computational models to predict cell function and systems-level response to disease, chemical stress, or biological pathomic agents. This project supports Energy Security, Threat Reduction, and the missions of the DOE Office of Science through its efforts to accurately

  19. Earthquakes in New England

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fratto, E. S.; Ebel, J.E.; Kadinsky-Cade, K.

    1990-01-01

    New England has a long history of earthquakes. Some of the first explorers were startled when they experienced strong shaking and rumbling of the earth below their feet. they soon learned from the Indians that this was not an uncommon occurrence in the New World. the Plymouth Pilgrims felt their first earthquake in 1638. that first shock rattled dishes, doors, and buildings. The shaking so frightened those working in the fields that they threw down their tools and ran panic-stricken through the countryside. 

  20. Using SysML to model complex systems for security.

    SciTech Connect

    Cano, Lester Arturo

    2010-08-01

    As security systems integrate more Information Technology the design of these systems has tended to become more complex. Some of the most difficult issues in designing Complex Security Systems (CSS) are: Capturing Requirements: Defining Hardware Interfaces: Defining Software Interfaces: Integrating Technologies: Radio Systems: Voice Over IP Systems: Situational Awareness Systems.

  1. RNA viruses as complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Elena, Santiago F; Sanjuán, Rafael

    2005-07-01

    RNA viruses have high mutation rates and so their populations exist as dynamic and complex mutant distributions. It has been consistently observed that when challenged with a new environment, viral populations adapt following hyperbolic-like kinetics: adaptation is initially very rapid, but then slows down as fitness reaches an asymptotic value. These adaptive dynamics have been explained in terms of populations moving towards the top of peaks on rugged fitness landscapes. Fitness fluctuations of varying magnitude are observed during adaptation. Often the presence of fluctuations in the evolution of physical systems indicates some form of self-organization, or where many components of the system are simultaneously involved. Here we analyze data from several in vitro evolution experiments carried out with vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) looking for the signature of criticality and scaling. Long-range fitness correlations have been detected during the adaptive process. We also found that the magnitude of fitness fluctuations, far from being trivial, conform to a Weibull probability distribution function, suggesting that viral adaptation belongs to a broad category of phenomena previously documented in other fields and related with emergence.

  2. Procedures in complex systems: the airline cockpit.

    PubMed

    Degani, A; Wiener, E L

    1997-05-01

    In complex human-machine systems, successful operations depend on an elaborate set of procedures which are specified by the operational management of the organization. These procedures indicate to the human operator (in this case the pilot) the manner in which operational management intends to have various tasks done. The intent is to provide guidance to the pilots and to ensure a safe, logical, efficient, and predictable (standardized) means of carrying out the objectives of the job. However, procedures can become a hodge-podge. Inconsistent or illogical procedures may lead to noncompliance by operators. Based on a field study with three major airlines, the authors propose a model for procedure development called the "Four P's": philosophy, policies, procedures, and practices. Using this model as a framework, the authors discuss the intricate issue of designing flight-deck procedures, and propose a conceptual approach for designing any set of procedures. The various factors, both external and internal to the cockpit, that must be considered for procedure design are presented. In particular, the paper addresses the development of procedures for automated cockpits--a decade-long, and highly controversial issue in commercial aviation. Although this paper is based on airline operations, we assume that the principles discussed here are also applicable to other high-risk supervisory control systems, such as space flight, manufacturing process control, nuclear power production, and military operations.

  3. Major Depression as a Complex Dynamic System

    PubMed Central

    Cramer, Angélique O. J.; van Borkulo, Claudia D.; Giltay, Erik J.; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Scheffer, Marten; Borsboom, Denny

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we characterize major depression (MD) as a complex dynamic system in which symptoms (e.g., insomnia and fatigue) are directly connected to one another in a network structure. We hypothesize that individuals can be characterized by their own network with unique architecture and resulting dynamics. With respect to architecture, we show that individuals vulnerable to developing MD are those with strong connections between symptoms: e.g., only one night of poor sleep suffices to make a particular person feel tired. Such vulnerable networks, when pushed by forces external to the system such as stress, are more likely to end up in a depressed state; whereas networks with weaker connections tend to remain in or return to a non-depressed state. We show this with a simulation in which we model the probability of a symptom becoming ‘active’ as a logistic function of the activity of its neighboring symptoms. Additionally, we show that this model potentially explains some well-known empirical phenomena such as spontaneous recovery as well as accommodates existing theories about the various subtypes of MD. To our knowledge, we offer the first intra-individual, symptom-based, process model with the potential to explain the pathogenesis and maintenance of major depression. PMID:27930698

  4. Ancestral vertebrate complexity of the opioid system.

    PubMed

    Larhammar, Dan; Bergqvist, Christina; Sundström, Görel

    2015-01-01

    The evolution of the opioid peptides and nociceptin/orphanin as well as their receptors has been difficult to resolve due to variable evolutionary rates. By combining sequence comparisons with information on the chromosomal locations of the genes, we have deduced the following evolutionary scenario: The vertebrate predecessor had one opioid precursor gene and one receptor gene. The two genome doublings before the vertebrate radiation resulted in three peptide precursor genes whereupon a fourth copy arose by a local gene duplication. These four precursors diverged to become the prepropeptides for endorphin (POMC), enkephalins, dynorphins, and nociceptin, respectively. The ancestral receptor gene was quadrupled in the genome doublings leading to delta, kappa, and mu and the nociceptin/orphanin receptor. This scenario is corroborated by new data presented here for coelacanth and spotted gar, representing two basal branches in the vertebrate tree. A third genome doubling in the ancestor of teleost fishes generated additional gene copies. These results show that the opioid system was quite complex already in the first vertebrates and that it has more components in teleost fishes than in mammals. From an evolutionary point of view, nociceptin and its receptor can be considered full-fledged members of the opioid system.

  5. A complex systems approach to bibliometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stringer, Michael J.

    Enabled by technological change, we are in the midst of a fundamental shift in how scientific information is produced and communicated. Electronic publishing, preprint archives, blogs, and wikis are emerging as possible viable alternatives to the current journal publishing and peer review system. However, these new technologies flood the environment with information, making it increasingly difficult to find the highest quality and most relevant papers. Additionally, accreditation and quality assessment of published material becomes nearly impossible for agencies interested in funding the research and development that is most likely to succeed. Recently, bibliometric tools have emerged as an effective means for the filtering, accreditation, and assessment of scholarly information. In this thesis, we approach bibliometrics from a complex systems perspective. A unique characteristic of the work presented in this thesis is that we perform empirical validation of bibliometric models using the most comprehensive bibliographic database available. Using these methods, we quantify the dynamics of citations to scientific journals, and investigate the relationship between social network position and research performance.

  6. Understanding Complex Adaptive Systems by Playing Games

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Bilsen, Arthur; Bekebrede, Geertje; Mayer, Igor

    2010-01-01

    While educators teach their students about decision making in complex environments, managers have to deal with the complexity of large projects on a daily basis. To make better decisions it is assumed, that the latter would benefit from better understanding of complex phenomena, as do students as the professionals of the future. The goal of this…

  7. Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

    2015-04-01

    The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

  8. Wastewater and Hazardous Waste Survey, England AFB Louisiana.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-01-01

    Background 1 A. Wastewater System 2 B. England AFB Wastewater Discharge Limitations 2 C. Characteristic Hazardous Waste Regulations 3 1II. Procedures 4 A...Conservation and Recovery Act, or the Louisiana State Hazardous Waste Regulations . The wastewater survey was conducted by 1 Lt Robert A. Tetla, 2Lt Charles W...34Hazardous Waste Abatement Plan, England Air Force Base, Louisiana," 1987. 0 12. State of Louisiana Hazardous Waste Regulations 13. RCRA Interim

  9. Governing Education through Data: Scotland, England and the European Education Policy Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grek, Sotiria; Ozga, Jenny

    2010-01-01

    This paper draws on interview data from national policy makers in England, Scotland and the European Commission to illustrate differences in the referencing of "Europe" in education policy-making in England and Scotland in order to highlight the emergent complexity of post-devolution policy-making in education through a focus on…

  10. We are bitter, but we are better off: case study of the implementation of an electronic health record system into a mental health hospital in England

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In contrast to the acute hospital sector, there have been relatively few implementations of integrated electronic health record (EHR) systems into specialist mental health settings. The National Programme for Information Technology (NPfIT) in England was the most expensive IT-based transformation of public services ever undertaken, which aimed amongst other things, to implement integrated EHR systems into mental health hospitals. This paper describes the arrival, the process of implementation, stakeholders’ experiences and the local consequences of the implementation of an EHR system into a mental health hospital. Methods Longitudinal, real-time, case study-based evaluation of the implementation and adoption of an EHR software (RiO) into an English mental health hospital known here as Beta. We conducted 48 in-depth interviews with a wide range of internal and external stakeholders, undertook 26 hours of on-site observations, and obtained 65 sets of relevant documents from various types relating to Beta. Analysis was both inductive and deductive, the latter being informed by the ‘sociotechnical changing’ theoretical framework. Results Many interviewees perceived the implementation of the EHR system as challenging and cumbersome. During the early stages of the implementation, some clinicians felt that using the software was time-consuming leading to the conclusion that the EHR was not fit for purpose. Most interviewees considered the chain of deployment of the EHR–which was imposed by NPfIT–as bureaucratic and obstructive, which restricted customization and as a result limited adoption and use. The low IT literacy among users at Beta was a further barrier to the implementation of the EHR. This along with inadequate training in using the EHR software led to resistance to the significant cultural and work environment changes initiated by EHR. Despite the many challenges, Beta achieved some early positive results. These included: the ability to

  11. 75 FR 16096 - New England Power Generators Association Inc., Complainant v. ISO New England Inc., Respondent...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-31

    ... Energy Regulatory Commission New England Power Generators Association Inc., Complainant v. ISO New England Inc., Respondent; ISO New England Inc. and New England Power Pool; Notice of Complaint March 24... Generators Association Inc. (Complainant) filed a formal complaint against ISO New England Inc....

  12. Concentrations of hormones, pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants in groundwater affected by septic systems in New England and New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phillips, Patrick J.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Argue, Denise M.; Fisher, Irene J.; Furlong, Edward T.; Foreman, William T.; Gray, James L.; Chalmers, Ann T.

    2015-01-01

    The highest micropollutant concentrations for the NY network were present in the shoreline wells and reflect groundwater that is most affected by septic system discharges. One of the shoreline wells had personal care/domestic use, pharmaceutical, and plasticizer concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 5.7 μg/L. Estradiol equivalency quotient concentrations were also highest in a shoreline well sample (3.1 ng/L). Most micropollutant concentrations increase with increasing specific conductance and total nitrogen concentrations for shoreline well samples. These findings suggest that septic systems serving institutional settings and densely populated areas in coastal settings may be locally important sources of micropollutants to adjacent aquifer and marine systems.

  13. Modeling Complex Chemical Systems: Problems and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Dijk, Jan

    2016-09-01

    Non-equilibrium plasmas in complex gas mixtures are at the heart of numerous contemporary technologies. They typically contain dozens to hundreds of species, involved in hundreds to thousands of reactions. Chemists and physicists have always been interested in what are now called chemical reduction techniques (CRT's). The idea of such CRT's is that they reduce the number of species that need to be considered explicitly without compromising the validity of the model. This is usually achieved on the basis of an analysis of the reaction time scales of the system under study, which identifies species that are in partial equilibrium after a given time span. The first such CRT that has been widely used in plasma physics was developed in the 1960's and resulted in the concept of effective ionization and recombination rates. It was later generalized to systems in which multiple levels are effected by transport. In recent years there has been a renewed interest in tools for chemical reduction and reaction pathway analysis. An example of the latter is the PumpKin tool. Another trend is that techniques that have previously been developed in other fields of science are adapted as to be able to handle the plasma state of matter. Examples are the Intrinsic Low Dimension Manifold (ILDM) method and its derivatives, which originate from combustion engineering, and the general-purpose Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique. In this contribution we will provide an overview of the most common reduction techniques, then critically assess the pros and cons of the methods that have gained most popularity in recent years. Examples will be provided for plasmas in argon and carbon dioxide.

  14. A framework for implementing systems engineering development of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunson, Karl Leonard

    The Department of Defense and the aerospace industry are responsible for decades of successful implementation of systems engineering process models used for the development of complex systems. The process models implemented throughout acquisition life cycles have proven to be comprehensive and flexible, and hence are designed to reduce acquisition schedule variability and the inherent risks of life-cycle cost overruns. While implementing the appropriate process model is important, various process models do not evaluate and quantify potential technical, manufacturing, scheduling and cost risks that may impact acquisition activities throughout the acquisition life cycle of the complex system. A potential way to effectively manage these risks with the appropriate process model is through the incorporation of the Synthesized Framework , the proposed method developed in this dissertation. With the described Synthesized Framework (SF), process models and risk drivers can be analyzed using this comprehensive approach, which implements qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques through Monte Carlo simulation. The result is a repeatable, inherent, risk-driven commitment process that can stabilize and synchronize both systems engineering and acquisition processes.

  15. Responses of a deltaic system to minor relative sea level variations (Middle Jurassic, Cleveland basin, England): Consequences on the reservoir geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Eschard, R.; Ravenne, C. )

    1990-05-01

    In the Middle Jurassic series of the Cleveland basin (England), an accurate three-dimensional reconstruction of depositional sequences from outcrops, cores, and wireline logs show that minor sea level variations control the evolution of a deltaic system. Because of low subsidence and sediment supply rates, rapid sea level rises induce several landward shifts of the shoreline, whereas minor sea level drops produce the incision of small paleovalleys. The deltaic series, 200 m thick at the basin depocenter, are subdivided into five depositional sequences. During the first two sequences, the sediment supply rate exceeds the relative sea level rate and the delta progrades. The delta aggrades during the third depositional sequence and retrogrades in the fourth depositional sequence when the relative sea level rise rate balances then exceeds the sediment supply rate. Finally, a relative sea level drop induces the incision of a paleovalley progressively infilled during the following sea level rise. Several orders of bathymetric cycles are deduced from detailed correlations of the unconformities and from the comparison of the vertical facies succession between low and high subsiding areas. The general evolution of the delta is related to a 5-m.y. bathymetric cycle due to a eustatic sea level rise and fall. Pne to 3-m.y. bathymetric cycles control the main aggradation patterns of the delta. These patterns are related to third-order eustatic cycles or to local tectonic events. Less than 0.5 m.y. bathymetric cycles are registrated by parasequences or minor depositional sequences which are correlated all over the basin. The controlling parameters of the sequences are discussed. Minor bathymetric cycles (0.2 m.y.) reflect small-scale sea level oscillations or autocyclic evolution of the sedimentary bodies. The authors focus on the reservoir geometry within each bathymetric cycle.

  16. Management Strategies for Complex Adaptive Systems: Sensemaking, Learning, and Improvisation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDaniel, Reuben R., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Misspecification of the nature of organizations may be a major reason for difficulty in achieving performance improvement. Organizations are often viewed as machine-like, but complexity science suggests that organizations should be viewed as complex adaptive systems. I identify the characteristics of complex adaptive systems and give examples of…

  17. Inference, simulation, modeling, and analysis of complex networks, with special emphasis on complex networks in systems biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Claire Petra

    Across diverse fields ranging from physics to biology, sociology, and economics, the technological advances of the past decade have engendered an unprecedented explosion of data on highly complex systems with thousands, if not millions of interacting components. These systems exist at many scales of size and complexity, and it is becoming ever-more apparent that they are, in fact, universal, arising in every field of study. Moreover, they share fundamental properties---chief among these, that the individual interactions of their constituent parts may be well-understood, but the characteristic behaviour produced by the confluence of these interactions---by these complex networks---is unpredictable; in a nutshell, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. There is, perhaps, no better illustration of this concept than the discoveries being made regarding complex networks in the biological sciences. In particular, though the sequencing of the human genome in 2003 was a remarkable feat, scientists understand that the "cellular-level blueprints" for the human being are cellular-level parts lists, but they say nothing (explicitly) about cellular-level processes. The challenge of modern molecular biology is to understand these processes in terms of the networks of parts---in terms of the interactions among proteins, enzymes, genes, and metabolites---as it is these processes that ultimately differentiate animate from inanimate, giving rise to life! It is the goal of systems biology---an umbrella field encapsulating everything from molecular biology to epidemiology in social systems---to understand processes in terms of fundamental networks of core biological parts, be they proteins or people. By virtue of the fact that there are literally countless complex systems, not to mention tools and techniques used to infer, simulate, analyze, and model these systems, it is impossible to give a truly comprehensive account of the history and study of complex systems. The author

  18. A novel performance monitoring framework for health research systems: experiences of the National Institute for Health Research in England

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) was established in 2006 with the aim of creating an applied health research system embedded within the English National Health Service (NHS). NIHR sought to implement an approach for monitoring its performance that effectively linked early indicators of performance with longer-term research impacts. We attempted to develop and apply a conceptual framework for defining appropriate key performance indicators for NIHR. Method Following a review of relevant literature, a conceptual framework for defining performance indicators for NIHR was developed, based on a hybridisation of the logic model and balanced scorecard approaches. This framework was validated through interviews with key NIHR stakeholders and a pilot in one division of NIHR, before being refined and applied more widely. Indicators were then selected and aggregated to create a basket of indicators aligned to NIHR's strategic goals, which could be reported to NIHR's leadership team on a quarterly basis via an oversight dashboard. Results Senior health research system managers and practitioners endorsed the conceptual framework developed and reported satisfaction with the breadth and balance of indicators selected for reporting. Conclusions The use of the hybrid conceptual framework provides a pragmatic approach to defining performance indicators that are aligned to the strategic aims of a health research system. The particular strength of this framework is its capacity to provide an empirical link, over time, between upstream activities of a health research system and its long-term strategic objectives. PMID:21435265

  19. Complex Systems Thinking and Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Complex systems approaches have received increasing attention in public health because reductionist approaches yield limited insights in the context of dynamic systems. Most discussions have been highly abstract. There is a need to consider the application of complex systems approaches to specific research questions. I review the features of population health problems for which complex systems approaches are most likely to yield new insights, and discuss possible applications of complex systems to health disparities research. I provide illustrative examples of how complex systems approaches may help address unanswered and persistent questions regarding genetic factors, life course processes, place effects, and the impact of upstream policies. The concepts and methods of complex systems may help researchers move beyond current impasse points in health disparities research. PMID:21778505

  20. International Specialist Seminar on Systems on Silicon, 2nd, Buxton, England, October 22-25, 1985, Proceedings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorey, A. P.

    1986-05-01

    Various papers discussing systems on silicon are presented. The topics addressed include: silicon-on-insulator technology, cell-based design, structured approaches to design, behavior description and VLSI verification, image reconstruction using the transputer, and SCAPE: a single-chip array processing element for signal and image processing. Also considered are: VLSI and WSI associative string processors for structured data processing, logic programs and an experimental architecture for their execution, design of a reliable and self-testing VLSI data-path using residue codign techniques, and integrated CAD and work stations.

  1. Multistage Spectral Relaxation Method for Solving the Hyperchaotic Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Saberi Nik, Hassan; Rebelo, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    We present a pseudospectral method application for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems. The proposed method, called the multistage spectral relaxation method (MSRM) is based on a technique of extending Gauss-Seidel type relaxation ideas to systems of nonlinear differential equations and using the Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to solve the resulting system on a sequence of multiple intervals. In this new application, the MSRM is used to solve famous hyperchaotic complex systems such as hyperchaotic complex Lorenz system and the complex permanent magnet synchronous motor. We compare this approach to the Runge-Kutta based ode45 solver to show that the MSRM gives accurate results. PMID:25386624

  2. Multistage spectral relaxation method for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems.

    PubMed

    Saberi Nik, Hassan; Rebelo, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    We present a pseudospectral method application for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems. The proposed method, called the multistage spectral relaxation method (MSRM) is based on a technique of extending Gauss-Seidel type relaxation ideas to systems of nonlinear differential equations and using the Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to solve the resulting system on a sequence of multiple intervals. In this new application, the MSRM is used to solve famous hyperchaotic complex systems such as hyperchaotic complex Lorenz system and the complex permanent magnet synchronous motor. We compare this approach to the Runge-Kutta based ode45 solver to show that the MSRM gives accurate results.

  3. Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study.

    PubMed

    Yu, Shaocai; Mathur, Rohit; Kang, Daiwen; Schere, Kenneth; Eder, Brian; Pleim, Jonathan

    2006-10-01

    A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.

  4. Tethering Complexes in the Arabidopsis Endomembrane System

    PubMed Central

    Vukašinović, Nemanja; Žárský, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    Targeting of endomembrane transport containers is of the utmost importance for proper land plant growth and development. Given the immobility of plant cells, localized membrane vesicle secretion and recycling are amongst the main processes guiding proper cell, tissue and whole plant morphogenesis. Cell wall biogenesis and modification are dependent on vectorial membrane traffic, not only during normal development, but also in stress responses and in plant defense against pathogens and/or symbiosis. It is surprising how little we know about these processes in plants, from small GTPase regulation to the tethering complexes that act as their effectors. Tethering factors are single proteins or protein complexes mediating first contact between the target membrane and arriving membrane vesicles. In this review we focus on the tethering complexes of the best-studied plant model—Arabidopsis thaliana. Genome-based predictions indicate the presence of all major tethering complexes in plants that are known from a hypothetical last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA). The evolutionary multiplication of paralogs of plant tethering complex subunits has produced the massively expanded EXO70 family, indicating a subfunctionalization of the terminal exocytosis machinery in land plants. Interpretation of loss of function (LOF) mutant phenotypes has to consider that related, yet clearly functionally-specific complexes often share some common core subunits. It is therefore impossible to conclude with clarity which version of the complex is responsible for the phenotypic deviations observed. Experimental interest in the analysis of plant tethering complexes is growing and we hope to contribute with this review by attracting even more attention to this fascinating field of plant cell biology. PMID:27243010

  5. Studies of complexity in fluid systems

    SciTech Connect

    Nagel, Sidney R.

    2000-06-12

    This is the final report of Grant DE-FG02-92ER25119, ''Studies of Complexity in Fluids'', we have investigated turbulence, flow in granular materials, singularities in evolution of fluid surfaces and selective withdrawal fluid flows. We have studied numerical methods for dealing with complex phenomena, and done simulations on the formation of river networks. We have also studied contact-line deposition that occurs in a drying drop.

  6. Integration of the immune system: a complex adaptive supersystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crisman, Mark V.

    2001-10-01

    Immunity to pathogenic organisms is a complex process involving interacting factors within the immune system including circulating cells, tissues and soluble chemical mediators. Both the efficiency and adaptive responses of the immune system in a dynamic, often hostile, environment are essential for maintaining our health and homeostasis. This paper will present a brief review of one of nature's most elegant, complex adaptive systems.

  7. Understanding Equilibrium: The Study of Complex Systems. Final Project Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duckworth, Eleanor; And Others

    The Educational Technology Center (ETC) Complex Systems Project was initiated to explore ways of using computers to help students understand systems which have often proven too complex for most high school students to understand. Preliminary work concentrated on the cognitive processes involved in modeling simple systems. This paper describes an…

  8. Nervous System and Intracranial Tumour Incidence by Ethnicity in England, 2001–2007: A Descriptive Epidemiological Study

    PubMed Central

    Maile, Edward J.; Barnes, Isobel; Finlayson, Alexander E.; Sayeed, Shameq; Ali, Raghib

    2016-01-01

    Background There is substantial variation in nervous system and intracranial tumour incidence worldwide. UK incidence data have limited utility because they group these diverse tumours together and do not provide data for individual ethnic groups within Blacks and South Asians. Our objective was to determine the incidence of individual tumour types for seven individual ethnic groups. Methods We used data from the National Cancer Intelligence Network on tumour site, age, sex and deprivation to identify 42,207 tumour cases. Self-reported ethnicity was obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. We used mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics. We analysed tumours by site using Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios comparing non-White ethnicities to Whites after adjustment for sex, age and deprivation. Results Our study showed differences in tumour incidence by ethnicity for gliomas, meningiomas, pituitary tumours and cranial and paraspinal nerve tumours. Relative to Whites; South Asians, Blacks and Chinese have a lower incidence of gliomas (p<0.01), with respective incidence rate ratios of 0.68 (confidence interval: 0.60–0.77), 0.62 (0.52–0.73) and 0.58 (0.41–0.83). Blacks have a higher incidence of meningioma (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 1.29 (1.05–1.59) and there is heterogeneity in meningioma incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Blacks have a higher incidence of pituitary tumours relative to Whites (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 2.95 (2.37–3.67). There is heterogeneity in pituitary tumour incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Conclusions We present incidence data of individual tumour types for seven ethnic groups. Current understanding of the aetiology of these tumours cannot explain our results. These findings suggest avenues for further work. PMID:27135830

  9. Cause and effect in geomorphic systems: Complex systems perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, A. Brad; Coco, Giovanni; Goldstein, Evan B.

    2014-06-01

    Applying complex systems perspectives to geomorphic systems leads to the conclusion that cause and effect in landscape systems does not always apply in the ways that common sense and traditional assumptions would suggest. Geomorphologists have long thought that events must have causes and that landscape structures exist where they do for particular reasons. In addition, since the rise of process geomorphology, geomorphologists have often assumed that small-scale processes directly cause large-scale, long-term landscape evolution; that for understanding or predicting the large-scale behaviors, the details of the small-scale processes matter; and that large-scale processes do not directly cause behaviors at much smaller scales. However, in self-organized systems, autogenic events can arise from feedbacks internal to the system, without any variation in the forcing to cause the event. Similarly, structures within self-organized patterns in the landscape can emerge spontaneously, even though there may not be any pre-existing heterogeneity to cause the localization of the structure. In addition, cause and effect can operate from large scales to small ones as well as the reverse, and interactions that emerge at larger scales can determine the characteristics of the landscape, independent of the details of the small-scale processes. To exemplify these points, we will use research on 'sorted bedforms', striking shallow seabed grain-sized sorted patterns on scales ranging from tens of meters to kilometers. The stripes of coarse sand or gravel that are segregated from intervening fine-sand domains were originally ascribed to hypothesized, spatially focused currents. However, more recent modeling and field observations point to a self-organization mechanism in which the locations of the features do not correspond with any heterogeneity in the forcing or antecedent conditions. Very recent modeling work shows that regionally the pattern can spontaneously break down and reform

  10. Complexity Thinking in PE: Game-Centred Approaches, Games as Complex Adaptive Systems, and Ecological Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storey, Brian; Butler, Joy

    2013-01-01

    Background: This article draws on the literature relating to game-centred approaches (GCAs), such as Teaching Games for Understanding, and dynamical systems views of motor learning to demonstrate a convergence of ideas around games as complex adaptive learning systems. This convergence is organized under the title "complexity thinking"…

  11. Mathematics of Failures in Complex Systems: Characterization and Mitigation of Service Failures in Complex Dynamic Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-06-30

    fractal dimensions and Lyapunov exponents . Fractal dimensions characterize geometri- cal complexity of dynamics (e.g., spatial distribution of points along...ant classi3ers (e.g., Lyapunov exponents , and fractal dimensions). The 3rst three steps show how chaotic systems may be separated from stochastic...correlated random walk in which a ¼ 2H, where H is the Hurst exponen interval 0pHp1 with the case H ¼ 0:5 corresponding to a simple rando This model has been

  12. What is the utility of using syndromic surveillance systems during large subnational infectious gastrointestinal disease outbreaks? An observational study using case studies from the past 5 years in England.

    PubMed

    Todkill, D; Elliot, A J; Morbey, R; Harris, J; Hawker, J; Edeghere, O; Smith, G E

    2016-08-01

    Syndromic surveillance systems in England have demonstrated utility in the early identification of seasonal gastrointestinal illness (GI) tracking its spatio-temporal distribution and enabling early public health action. There would be additional public health utility if syndromic surveillance systems could detect or track subnational infectious disease outbreaks. To investigate using syndromic surveillance for this purpose we retrospectively identified eight large GI outbreaks between 2009 and 2014 (four randomly and four purposively sampled). We then examined syndromic surveillance information prospectively collected by the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team within Public Health England for evidence of possible outbreak-related changes. None of the outbreaks were identified contemporaneously and no alerts were made to relevant public health teams. Retrospectively, two of the outbreaks - which happened at similar times and in proximal geographical locations - demonstrated changes in the local trends of relevant syndromic indicators and exhibited a clustering of statistical alarms, but did not warrant alerting local health protection teams. Our suite of syndromic surveillance systems may be more suited to their original purposes than as means of detecting or monitoring localized, subnational GI outbreaks. This should, however, be considered in the context of this study's limitations; further prospective work is needed to fully explore the use of syndromic surveillance for this purpose. Provided geographical coverage is sufficient, syndromic surveillance systems could be able to provide reassurance of no or minor excess healthcare systems usage during localized GI incidents.

  13. Changing Landscapes in Safeguarding Babies and Young Children in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lumsden, Eunice

    2014-01-01

    The importance of safeguarding children from violence is internationally recognised. However, detecting, intervening and protecting children from abuse both within the family and in institutions is complex. This paper specifically focuses on safeguarding in England and how workforce reform in the early years offers the opportunity to forge new…

  14. Analyzing Adversaries as Complex Adaptive Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-10-01

    reflecting the general population’s sympathy (support) for the terrorist’s cause, is depressed as the terrorist attack magnitude increases, as shown in...Cowan, George A., Pines, David, Meltzer , David, eds., 1994, Complexity: Metaphors, Models, and Reality, Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley

  15. Statistical Features of Complex Systems ---Toward Establishing Sociological Physics---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Naoki; Kuninaka, Hiroto; Wakita, Jun-ichi; Matsushita, Mitsugu

    2011-07-01

    Complex systems have recently attracted much attention, both in natural sciences and in sociological sciences. Members constituting a complex system evolve through nonlinear interactions among each other. This means that in a complex system the multiplicative experience or, so to speak, the history of each member produces its present characteristics. If attention is paid to any statistical property in any complex system, the lognormal distribution is the most natural and appropriate among the standard or ``normal'' statistics to overview the whole system. In fact, the lognormality emerges rather conspicuously when we examine, as familiar and typical examples of statistical aspects in complex systems, the nursing-care period for the aged, populations of prefectures and municipalities, and our body height and weight. Many other examples are found in nature and society. On the basis of these observations, we discuss the possibility of sociological physics.

  16. Towards an evaluation framework for complex social systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDonald, Diane M.; Kay, Nigel

    While there is growing realisation that the world in which we live in is highly complex with multiple interdependencies and irreducibly open to outside influence, how to make these 'systems' more manageable is still a significant outstanding issue. As (2004) suggests, applying the theoretical principles of Complex Systems may help solve complex problems in this complex world. While Bar-Yam provides examples of forward-thinking organisations which have begun to see the relevance of complex systems principles, for many organisations the language and concepts of complexity science such as self-organisation and unpredictability while they make theoretical sense offer no practical or acceptable method of implementation to those more familiar with definitive facts and classical hierarchical, deterministic approaches to control. Complexity Science explains why designed systems or interventions may not function as anticipated in differing environments, without providing a silver bullet which enables control or engineering of the system to ensure the desired results. One familiar process which might, if implemented with complex systems in mind, provide the basis of an accessible and understandable framework that enables policy makers and practitioners to better design and manage complex socio-technical systems is that of evaluation.

  17. Towards an evaluation framework for complex social systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDonald, Diane M.; Kay, Nigel

    While there is growing realisation that the world in which we live in is highly complex with multiple interdependencies and irreducibly open to outside influence, how to make these `systems' more manageable is still a significant outstanding issue. As (2004) suggests, applying the theoretical principles of Complex Systems may help solve complex problems in this complex world. While Bar-Yam provides examples of forward-thinking organisations which have begun to see the relevance of complex systems principles, for many organisations the language and concepts of complexity science such as self-organisation and unpredictability while they make theoretical sense offer no practical or acceptable method of implementation to those more familiar with definitive facts and classical hierarchical, deterministic approaches to control. Complexity Science explains why designed systems or interventions may not function as anticipated in differing environments, without providing a silver bullet which enables control or engineering of the system to ensure the desired results. One familiar process which might, if implemented with complex systems in mind, provide the basis of an accessible and understandable framework that enables policy makers and practitioners to better design and manage complex socio-technical systems is that of evaluation.

  18. Confluence and convergence: team effectiveness in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Porter-OʼGrady, Tim

    2015-01-01

    Complex adaptive systems require nursing leadership to rethink organizational work and the viability and effectiveness of teams. Much of emergent thinking about complexity and systems and organizations alter the understanding of the nature and function of teamwork and the configuration and leadership of team effort. Reflecting on basic concepts of complexity and their application to team formation, dynamics, and outcomes lays an important foundation for effectively guiding the strategic activity of systems through the focused tactical action of teams. Basic principles of complexity, their impact on teams, and the fundamental elements of team effectiveness are explored.

  19. Control system for the FFAG complex at KURRI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanigaki, M.; Takamiya, K.; Yoshino, H.; Abe, N.; Takeshita, T.; Osanai, A.

    2010-01-01

    A simple and convenient control system has been developed for the 150 MeV proton FFAG accelerator complex at Research Reactor Institute, Kyoto University. This control system is designed as a distributed control scheme and developed with simple and versatile tools, such as PLCs, LabVIEW and an IP based network, expecting applications in small accelerators, which are often operated by non-specialists in computer programming or in control systems. The control system for the FFAG accelerator complex has actually been developed by non-specialists, and the developed control system was successfully used for commissioning the FFAG complex.

  20. Complex Dynamical Behavior in Hybrid Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-29

    multiple mode switching and other high-level supervisory control architectures, give rise to complicated hybrid dynamical systems with behaviors... switching and other high-level supervisory control architectures, give rise to complicated hybrid dynamical systems with behaviors that can be difficult...Teel, ``Analytical and numerical Lyapunov functions for SISO linear control systems with first-order reset elements”, International Journal of

  1. Cyberspace: The Ultimate Complex Adaptive System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-09

    a transaction with a given agent; tags also facilitate the formation of aggregates , or meta-agents. Meta-agents help distrib- ute and decentralize...Cyber Environments Attribute Physical Environment Cyber Environment Location Latitude, Longitude IP-Address Speed Air and ground in mph Mbps or Gbps...or more capable in terms of its requisite variety (in can adapt to a wider range of conditions). The fitness of the agent is a complex aggregate

  2. Complex Systems: Science for the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect

    Shank, Charles V.; Awschalom, David; Bawendi, Moungi; Frechet, Jean; Murphy, Donald; Stupp, Sam; Wolynes, Peter

    1999-03-06

    The workshop was designed to help define new scientific directions related to complex systems in order to create new understanding about the nano world and complicated, multicomponent structures. Five emerging themes regarding complexity were covered: Collective Phenomena; Materials by Design; Functional Systems; Nature's Mastery; and New Tools.

  3. Designing Better Scaffolding in Teaching Complex Systems with Graphical Simulations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Na

    2013-01-01

    Complex systems are an important topic in science education today, but they are usually difficult for secondary-level students to learn. Although graphic simulations have many advantages in teaching complex systems, scaffolding is a critical factor for effective learning. This dissertation study was conducted around two complementary research…

  4. Complex, Dynamic Systems: A New Transdisciplinary Theme for Applied Linguistics?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane

    2012-01-01

    In this plenary address, I suggest that Complexity Theory has the potential to contribute a transdisciplinary theme to applied linguistics. Transdisciplinary themes supersede disciplines and spur new kinds of creative activity (Halliday 2001 [1990]). Investigating complex systems requires researchers to pay attention to system dynamics. Since…

  5. Acquisition of Complex Systemic Thinking: Mental Models of Evolution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    d'Apollonia, Sylvia T.; Charles, Elizabeth S.; Boyd, Gary M.

    2004-01-01

    We investigated the impact of introducing college students to complex adaptive systems on their subsequent mental models of evolution compared to those of students taught in the same manner but with no reference to complex systems. The students' mental models (derived from similarity ratings of 12 evolutionary terms using the pathfinder algorithm)…

  6. It's all about flow in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Clancy, Thomas R

    2014-04-01

    As systems evolve over time, their natural tendency is to become increasingly more complex. Studies in the field of complex systems have generated new perspectives on the application of management strategies in health systems. Much of this research appears as a natural extension of the cross-disciplinary field of systems theory. In this article, I discuss the Constructal Law and its impact on nurse workflow.

  7. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000.

    PubMed

    Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí A; Stott, Peter A; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno G J; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles R

    2011-02-17

    Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

  8. Size and complexity in model financial systems.

    PubMed

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M

    2012-11-06

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in "confidence" in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases.

  9. Size and complexity in model financial systems

    PubMed Central

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in “confidence” in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  10. Complexity analyses of multi-wing chaotic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Shao-Bo; Sun, Ke-Hui; Zhu, Cong-Xu

    2013-05-01

    The complexities of multi-wing chaotic systems based on the modified Chen system and a multi-segment quadratic function are investigated by employing the statistical complexity measure (SCM) and the spectral entropy (SE) algorithm. How to choose the parameters of the SCM and SE algorithms is discussed. The results show that the complexity of the multi-wing chaotic system does not increase as the number of wings increases, and it is consistent with the results of the Grassberger—Procaccia (GP) algorithm and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of the multi-wing chaotic system.

  11. CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT: European Conference on Complex Systems 2009 European Conference on Complex Systems 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2009-05-01

    The 2009 European Conference on Complex Systems will take place 21-25 September 2009 at the University of Warwick in the UK. Local Organising Committee Markus Kirkilionis (Warwick, Chair), Francois Kepes (Genopole, Programme Chair), Robert MacKay (Warwick), Robin Ball (Warwick), Jeff Johnson (Open University). International Steering Committee Markus Kirkilionis (Warwick; Chair 2008-10), Fatihcan Atay (Leipzig), Jürgen Jost (Leipzig), Scott Kirkpatrick (Jerusalem), David Lane (University of Modena and Reggio Emillia), Andreas Lorincz (Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Denise Pumain (Sorbonne), Felix Reed-Tsochas (Oxford), Eörs Szathmáry (Collegium Budapest, Hungary), Stephan Thurner (Wien), Paul Verschure (Barcelona), Alessandro Vespignani (Indiana, ISI), Riccardo Zecchina (Torino). Main tracks and Organisers Policy, Planning & Infrastructure: Jeff Johnson (Open University, Chair), Arnaud Banos (Strasbourg) Collective Human Behaviour and Society: Felix Reed-Tsochas (Oxford, Chair), Frances Griffiths (Warwick), Edmund Chattoe-Brown (Leicester) Interacting Populations and Environment: TBA Complexity and Computer Science: András Lörincz (Eötvös Loránd University), Paul Verschure (Zürich) From Molecules to Living Systems: Mark Chaplain (Dundee, Chair), Wolfgang Marwan (Magdeburg) Mathematics and Simulation: Holger Kantz (Dresden, Chair), Fatihcan Atay (Leipzig), Matteo Marsili (Trieste). Deadlines Paper submission: 31 March 2009 with decisions 15 May 2009. Paper submission deadline likely to be extended. See http://www.eccs09.info for more information. Meeting registration: early registration July 2009; last assured chance 1 Sept. Further information For contacts and the most up-to-date information visit http://www.eccs09.info.

  12. Climate Leaders Collaboration | New England | US EPA

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2017-04-10

    In 2013 EPA New England held a climate leaders summit. A key outgrowth of that summit was the formation of a Climate Leaders Steering Committee and six Action Plan Teams to help New England communities achieve climate resilience.

  13. Forewarning of Failure in Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Hively, Lee M; Prowell, Stacy J; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2011-01-01

    As the critical infrastructures of the United States have become more and more dependent on public and private networks, the potential for widespread national impact resulting from disruption or failure of these networks has also increased. Securing the nation s critical infrastructures requires protecting not only their physical systems but, just as important, the cyber portions of the systems on which they rely. A failure is inclusive of random events, design flaws, and instabilities caused by cyber (and/or physical) attack. One such domain is failure in critical equipment. A second is aging bridges. We discuss the workings of such a system in the context of the necessary sensors, command and control and data collection as well as the cyber security efforts that would support this system. Their application and the implications of this computing architecture are also discussed, with respect to our nation s aging infrastructure.

  14. Software Analyzes Complex Systems in Real Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    Expert system software programs, also known as knowledge-based systems, are computer programs that emulate the knowledge and analytical skills of one or more human experts, related to a specific subject. SHINE (Spacecraft Health Inference Engine) is one such program, a software inference engine (expert system) designed by NASA for the purpose of monitoring, analyzing, and diagnosing both real-time and non-real-time systems. It was developed to meet many of the Agency s demanding and rigorous artificial intelligence goals for current and future needs. NASA developed the sophisticated and reusable software based on the experience and requirements of its Jet Propulsion Laboratory s (JPL) Artificial Intelligence Research Group in developing expert systems for space flight operations specifically, the diagnosis of spacecraft health. It was designed to be efficient enough to operate in demanding real time and in limited hardware environments, and to be utilized by non-expert systems applications written in conventional programming languages. The technology is currently used in several ongoing NASA applications, including the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Spacecraft Health Automatic Reasoning Pilot (SHARP) program for the diagnosis of telecommunication anomalies during the Neptune Voyager Encounter. It is also finding applications outside of the Space Agency.

  15. Education Reform in England: Quality and Equity in the Performative School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilkins, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that contradictory forces affect teachers' work in the neo-liberal school system in England, with a diversity of governance models alongside increasingly dominant orthodoxies of what constitutes 'effective practice and leadership'. School reforms in England have focused on increasing overall attainment and on closing the…

  16. Please Come to New England: Slow Growth Spells Trouble for Local Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Francese, Peter

    2002-01-01

    New England may be the wealthiest region in the United States, but it is also the oldest and slowest-growing, and among the least diverse. These peculiar demographic characteristics combined with New England's history of heavy reliance on local governments suggest future problems for the region's educational systems. Since most public schools in…

  17. Market-Oriented School Reform in England and Finland: School Choice, Finance and Governance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Anne; Ylonen, Annamari

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the introduction of market-oriented reforms into school-based education in England and Finland. The contexts into which reforms were introduced differed, with a fully comprehensive system being in place in Finland but not in England; the motives were also different; and different trajectories have since been followed. Whilst…

  18. Active Control of Complex Physical Systems: An Overview

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-09-01

    release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (Maxtmum 200 words) Active control of complex systems imposes unique requirements for physical models and...months after the meeting, SPrinte In USA. Acceslon For NTIS CRA&W DTIC TAB Unlannounced ] Active Control of Complex Physical Systems Justificatton An...control strategies. Physical models This work on the active control of which are adequate to predict the influence of specific physical systems has been

  19. Decision-making in healthcare as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Kuziemsky, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS.

  20. The Quaternary uplift history of central southern England: evidence from the terraces of the Solent River system and nearby raised beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westaway, Rob; Bridgland, David; White, Mark

    2006-09-01

    We have used fluvial (Solent River system) and marine terraces to reconstruct the uplift history of central southern England. In the case of the former, we make the assumption that fluvial incision has been a direct response to surface uplift, with its precise timing controlled by climatic forcing of fluvial activity, such that height of terrace gravel above modern river is a consequence of uplift since deposition. In the case of the marine sequence, we take the height of interglacial raised beaches above a calculated contemporaneous sea-level as a measure of uplift, the calculation involving an adjustment from modern sea-level using the deep oceanic oxygen isotope signal as an indication of global ice volume at the time of deposition. This exercise requires some degree of dating constraint, which is problematic for both environments. The Solent terraces have yielded little biostratigraphical evidence, whereas the south coast raised beaches have either been poorly exposed in recent years or their ages have been controversial because of disputes between biostratigraphy and geochronological data. We have supplemented the evidence available from these sources by using key aspects of the archaeological record as dating constraints, in particular the first appearances of Levallois technique (a marker for MIS 9-8) and of bout coupé handaxes (MIS 3). The first of these has been particularly useful in modelling of the Middle Pleistocene parts of the river terrace staircases of the Solent system. In undertaking this reappraisal, we have noted several inconsistencies and disagreements between past correlation schemes for the terraces of the Solent and its various tributaries. We find that versions involving shallower downstream gradients in the main Solent River are most likely to be correct and that revisions on this basis solve a number of problems in interpretation encountered previously. Our results show that most of this region has uplifted by ˜70 m since the late

  1. Systems thinking and complexity: considerations for health promoting schools.

    PubMed

    Rosas, Scott R

    2015-11-29

    The health promoting schools concept reflects a comprehensive and integrated philosophy to improving student and personnel health and well-being. Conceptualized as a configuration of interacting, interdependent parts connected through a web of relationships that form a whole greater than the sum of its parts, school health promotion initiatives often target several levels (e.g. individual, professional, procedural and policy) simultaneously. Health promoting initiatives, such as those operationalized under the whole school approach, include several interconnected components that are coordinated to improve health outcomes in complex settings. These complex systems interventions are embedded in intricate arrangements of physical, biological, ecological, social, political and organizational relationships. Systems thinking and characteristics of complex adaptive systems are introduced in this article to provide a perspective that emphasizes the patterns of inter-relationships associated with the nonlinear, dynamic and adaptive nature of complex hierarchical systems. Four systems thinking areas: knowledge, networks, models and organizing are explored as a means to further manage the complex nature of the development and sustainability of health promoting schools. Applying systems thinking and insights about complex adaptive systems can illuminate how to address challenges found in settings with both complicated (i.e. multi-level and multisite) and complex aspects (i.e. synergistic processes and emergent outcomes).

  2. Tailoring Enterprise Systems Engineering Policy for Project Scale and Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, Renee I.; Thomas, L. Dale

    2014-01-01

    Space systems are characterized by varying degrees of scale and complexity. Accordingly, cost-effective implementation of systems engineering also varies depending on scale and complexity. Recognizing that systems engineering and integration happen everywhere and at all levels of a given system and that the life cycle is an integrated process necessary to mature a design, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration's (NASA's) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a suite of customized implementation approaches based on project scale and complexity. While it may be argued that a top-level system engineering process is common to and indeed desirable across an enterprise for all space systems, implementation of that top-level process and the associated products developed as a result differ from system to system. The implementation approaches used for developing a scientific instrument necessarily differ from those used for a space station. .

  3. Multiscale Computational Models of Complex Biological Systems

    PubMed Central

    Walpole, Joseph; Papin, Jason A.; Peirce, Shayn M.

    2014-01-01

    Integration of data across spatial, temporal, and functional scales is a primary focus of biomedical engineering efforts. The advent of powerful computing platforms, coupled with quantitative data from high-throughput experimental platforms, has allowed multiscale modeling to expand as a means to more comprehensively investigate biological phenomena in experimentally relevant ways. This review aims to highlight recently published multiscale models of biological systems while using their successes to propose the best practices for future model development. We demonstrate that coupling continuous and discrete systems best captures biological information across spatial scales by selecting modeling techniques that are suited to the task. Further, we suggest how to best leverage these multiscale models to gain insight into biological systems using quantitative, biomedical engineering methods to analyze data in non-intuitive ways. These topics are discussed with a focus on the future of the field, the current challenges encountered, and opportunities yet to be realized. PMID:23642247

  4. IUTAM Symposium and NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Interpretation of Time Series from Nonlinear Mechanical Systems Held in Coventry, England on 26-30 August 1991. Conference Abstracts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-08-01

    this crossing is then regarded as the correct estimate of the correlation exponent. The program operates in two options. In local option, the state...chosen location. Time delay is chosen as the first zero crossing of the signal autocorrelation function. Estimated value of the correlation exponent...in the analysis of a complex system. For this reason, the estimation of the correlation dimension of a supposed attractor represented in a time series

  5. The Fallacy of Univariate Solutions to Complex Systems Problems

    PubMed Central

    Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N.; Rubin, Joshua B.; Schlaggar, Bradley L.

    2016-01-01

    Complex biological systems, by definition, are composed of multiple components that interact non-linearly. The human brain constitutes, arguably, the most complex biological system known. Yet most investigation of the brain and its function is carried out using assumptions appropriate for simple systems—univariate design and linear statistical approaches. This heuristic must change before we can hope to discover and test interventions to improve the lives of individuals with complex disorders of brain development and function. Indeed, a movement away from simplistic models of biological systems will benefit essentially all domains of biology and medicine. The present brief essay lays the foundation for this argument. PMID:27375425

  6. Computer Systems for Teaching Complex Concepts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feurzeig, Wallace

    Four Programing systems--Mentor, Stringcomp, Simon, and Logo--were designed and implemented as integral parts of research into the various ways computers may be used for teaching problem-solving concepts and skills. Various instructional contexts, among them medicine, mathematics, physics, and basic problem-solving for elementary school children,…

  7. Usability Engineering for Complex Interactive Systems Development

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-06-01

    called Nomad ( Microvision , 2003), for dismounted soldiers. In this paper, we present a brief description of key usability engineering activities...Nomad augmented vision system manufactured by Microvision ( Microvision , 2003). This display uses a low-powered laser beam to paint an image...Resolving Multiple Occluded Layers in Augmented Reality,” Submitted to ISMAR Conference. 2003. Microvision , Company website, see http

  8. Ice Storage System for School Complex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Ross D.

    1998-01-01

    Describes a project at the Manatee Education Center in Naples, Florida, which won an ASHRAE award. Project involved the implementation of ice-storage technology in 19 schools. Compares the performance of ice-storage systems with traditional chiller designs in two other schools. Tables illustrate costs for the campuses. Addresses the maintenance…

  9. Analysis of spatiotemporal signals of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uhl, C.; Friedrich, R.; Haken, H.

    1995-05-01

    We present a method of analyzing spatiotemporal signals emerging from nonequilibrium self-organizing systems that are close to instability. The algorithm aims at an identification of spatial modes and corresponding order-parameter equations. We discuss and demonstrate the method by examples of simulated codimension I and II instabilities, including a numerically integrated partial differential equation leading to ``blinking states.''

  10. Vulnerability Analysis of High Dimensional Complex Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-30

    tested the methods with Internet2 network data. From a variety of microdynamic network data, we extracted a dynamic measure of the Internet2 network’s...Systems Institute April 30, 2010 Figure 2: Backbone hubs on the Internet2 network and traffic flow links between them. 2 Internet2 Transitions from...case for studying the dynamical properties of the Internet is the Internet2 network, backbone hubs of which are depicted in Figure 2. Internet2 is a

  11. Critical care nursing: Embedded complex systems.

    PubMed

    Trinier, Ruth; Liske, Lori; Nenadovic, Vera

    2016-01-01

    Variability in parameters such as heart rate, respiratory rate and blood pressure defines healthy physiology and the ability of the person to adequately respond to stressors. Critically ill patients have lost this variability and require highly specialized nursing care to support life and monitor changes in condition. The critical care environment is a dynamic system through which information flows. The critical care unit is typically designed as a tree structure with generally one attending physician and multiple nurses and allied health care professionals. Information flow through the system allows for identification of deteriorating patient status and timely interventionfor rescue from further deleterious effects. Nurses provide the majority of direct patient care in the critical care setting in 2:1, 1:1 or 1:2 nurse-to-patient ratios. The bedside nurse-critically ill patient relationship represents the primary, real-time feedback loop of information exchange, monitoring and treatment. Variables that enhance information flow through this loop and support timely nursing intervention can improve patient outcomes, while barriers can lead to errors and adverse events. Examining patient information flow in the critical care environment from a dynamic systems perspective provides insights into how nurses deliver effective patient care and prevent adverse events.

  12. Integrated Modeling of Complex Optomechanical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, Torben; Enmark, Anita

    2011-09-01

    Mathematical modeling and performance simulation are playing an increasing role in large, high-technology projects. There are two reasons; first, projects are now larger than they were before, and the high cost calls for detailed performance prediction before construction. Second, in particular for space-related designs, it is often difficult to test systems under realistic conditions beforehand, and mathematical modeling is then needed to verify in advance that a system will work as planned. Computers have become much more powerful, permitting calculations that were not possible before. At the same time mathematical tools have been further developed and found acceptance in the community. Particular progress has been made in the fields of structural mechanics, optics and control engineering, where new methods have gained importance over the last few decades. Also, methods for combining optical, structural and control system models into global models have found widespread use. Such combined models are usually called integrated models and were the subject of this symposium. The objective was to bring together people working in the fields of groundbased optical telescopes, ground-based radio telescopes, and space telescopes. We succeeded in doing so and had 39 interesting presentations and many fruitful discussions during coffee and lunch breaks and social arrangements. We are grateful that so many top ranked specialists found their way to Kiruna and we believe that these proceedings will prove valuable during much future work.

  13. Thresholds and Complex Dynamics of Interdependent Cascading Infrastructure Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carreras, B. A.; Newman, D. E.; Dobson, I.; Lynch, V. E.; Gradney, Paul

    Critical infrastructures have a number of the characteristic properties of complex systems. Among these are infrequent large failures through cascading events. These events, though infrequent, often obey a power law distribution in their probability versus size which suggests that conventional risk analysis does not apply to these systems. Real infrastructure systems typically have an additional layer of complexity, namely the heterogeneous coupling to other infrastructure systems that can allow a failure in one system to propagate to the other system. Here, we model the infrastructure systems through a network with complex system dynamics. We use both mean field theory to get analytic results and a numerical complex systems model, Demon, for computational results. An isolated system has bifurcated fixed points and a cascading threshold which is the same as the bifurcation point. When systems are coupled, this is no longer true and the cascading threshold is different from the bifurcation point of the fixed point solutions. This change in the cascading threshold caused by the interdependence of the system can have an impact on the "safe operation" of interdependent infrastructure systems by changing the critical point and even the power law exponent.

  14. Classrooms as Complex Adaptive Systems: A Relational Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Anne; Knox, John S.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over…

  15. Research Methodology on Language Development from a Complex Systems Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane; Cameron, Lynne

    2008-01-01

    Changes to research methodology motivated by the adoption of a complexity theory perspective on language development are considered. The dynamic, nonlinear, and open nature of complex systems, together with their tendency toward self-organization and interaction across levels and timescales, requires changes in traditional views of the functions…

  16. Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

  17. Vertical leadership in highly complex and unpredictable health systems.

    PubMed

    Till, Alex; Dutta, Nina; McKimm, Judy

    2016-08-02

    This article explores how the concept of vertical leadership development might help health organizations cope with and thrive within highly complex and unpredictable health systems, looking at concepts of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) and RUPT (rapid, unpredictable, paradoxical and tangled).

  18. Separating internal and external dynamics of complex systems.

    PubMed

    Argollo de Menezes, M; Barabási, A-L

    2004-08-06

    The observable behavior of a complex system reflects the mechanisms governing the internal interactions between the system's components and the effect of external perturbations. Here we show that by capturing the simultaneous activity of several of the system's components we can separate the internal dynamics from the external fluctuations. The method allows us to systematically determine the origin of fluctuations in various real systems, finding that while the Internet and the computer chip have robust internal dynamics, highway and Web traffic are driven by external demand. As multichannel measurements are becoming the norm in most fields, the method could help uncover the collective dynamics of a wide array of complex systems.

  19. Neurofibromatosis type 2 service delivery in England.

    PubMed

    Lloyd, S K; Evans, D G

    2016-01-27

    Neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) is a complex disease characterized by the development of multiple schwannomas, especially vestibular schwannomas, as well as other types of benign tumours including meningioma and spinal ependymoma. Due to its multisystem nature, the management of NF2 requires a multidisciplinary approach. In England, the delivery of care for NF2 patients has been centralized to four-"hub" centres in Manchester, Cambridge, Oxford and London each having associated "spoke" centres. Each centre has a core multidisciplinary team consisting of genetics, otolaryngology, neurosurgery, paediatrics, neurology, audiology, radiology, psychology, physiotherapy, specialist nurses and administrative staff. In addition, the core team has access to plastic surgery, ophthalmology, peripheral nerve surgery and adult and paediatric oncology. There are weekly multidisciplinary clinics each with six to eight patients. Each patient is discussed during a team meeting and the management decisions that are made are then discussed with the patients. All patients are reviewed at least annually and have annual head magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and three yearly spinal MRI. Annual audiological assessment is performed. Cochlear implantation and auditory brainstem implantation are offered if indicated. Surgery, stereotactic radiosurgery and bevacizumab therapy are available for the management of intracranial and spinal tumours. The integration of the service in England has provided significant benefits to patient care and, in the long term, will provide robust patient outcome data that will provide an evidence base to assist in optimizing management of patients with NF2.

  20. On Chaotic and Hyperchaotic Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, Gamal M.

    Dynamical systems described by real and complex variables are currently one of the most popular areas of scientific research. These systems play an important role in several fields of physics, engineering, and computer sciences, for example, laser systems, control (or chaos suppression), secure communications, and information science. Dynamical basic properties, chaos (hyperchaos) synchronization, chaos control, and generating hyperchaotic behavior of these systems are briefly summarized. The main advantage of introducing complex variables is the reduction of phase space dimensions by a half. They are also used to describe and simulate the physics of detuned laser and thermal convection of liquid flows, where the electric field and the atomic polarization amplitudes are both complex. Clearly, if the variables of the system are complex the equations involve twice as many variables and control parameters, thus making it that much harder for a hostile agent to intercept and decipher the coded message. Chaotic and hyperchaotic complex systems are stated as examples. Finally there are many open problems in the study of chaotic and hyperchaotic complex nonlinear dynamical systems, which need further investigations. Some of these open problems are given.

  1. Anticipatory regulation of complex power systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fieno, Thomas Edward

    Electric generation control is performed in a distributed manner to supply power to geographically defined control areas. The goal of generation control is to keep the inadvertent flow of power across a control area's boundary as small as possible. If a difference exists between the power supplied and the power demanded in a control area, the load deficit or surplus would be either borrowed from or stored as the kinetic energy in rotating machines on the grid. This thesis addresses the challenge of matching the power demand of a local area grid with the power delivered by a coal-fired power plant. An anticipatory controller for a model power plant is presented to prescribe the power output into the grid. The control system forecasts what the future demand of the power customers in a control area is likely to be and modifies the fuel input to the power generation facility in order to match the predicted demand. A neural network was found to be an adaptable and robust prediction mechanism for the highly nonlinear data found in the power consumption patterns in a residential area of the Commonwealth Edison grid. The corresponding control schedule of the power plant was tuned to match the anticipated demand using an iterative neural network approach. The use of neural networks and an iterative scheme allows the controller design in this research to be applied to a broad range of control problems. The control methodology presented takes into account limits in the magnitude and rate of control actions. Simulations show that this implementation of anticipatory control of electric power demand is effective and especially well suited to dynamic systems that include a dead time or control limitations. The response of the anticipatory neural network control system was shown to be more energy efficient than feedback control for a typical thermal power regulation facility and to have a much smoother, reduced control effort.

  2. Visualization of complex hydrocarbon reaction systems

    SciTech Connect

    Shinn, J.H.

    1996-10-01

    Many hydrocarbon reactions of interest involve either poorly characterized reactants and products and/or large numbers of simultaneous reactions. An important step in understanding the behavior of such systems is to develop quantitative pictures of the feeds and products and the transformations which connect them. The processes for constructing these reaction visualizations is illustrated by examining the construction of a molecular model for coal liquefaction and subsequent conversion to distillate products, and the construction of a video simulation of catalytic petroleum naphtha reforming. New techniques which are permitting advances in these visualizations are discussed.

  3. Visualization of complex hydrocarbon reaction systems

    SciTech Connect

    Shinn, J.H.

    1996-12-31

    Many hydrocarbon reactions of interest involve either poorly characterized reactants and products and/or large numbers of simultaneous reactions. An important step in understanding the behavior of such systems is to develop quantitative pictures of the feeds and products and the transformations which connect them. The processes for constructing these reaction visualizations is illustrated by examining the construction of a molecular model for coal liquefaction and subsequent conversion to distillate products, and the construction of a video simulation of catalytic petroleum naphtha reforming. New technique which are permitting advances in these visualizations are discussed.

  4. Complex Synchronization Phenomena in Ecological Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, Lewi; Olinky, Ronen; Blasius, Bernd; Huppert, Amit; Cazelles, Bernard

    2002-07-01

    Ecological and biological systems provide us with many striking examples of synchronization phenomena. Here we discuss a number of intriguing cases and attempt to explain them taking advantage of a modelling framework. One main focus will concern synchronized ecological end epidemiological cycles which have Uniform Phase growth associated with their regular recurrence, and Chaotic Amplitudes - a feature we term UPCA. Examples come from different areas and include decadal cycles of small mammals, recurrent viral epidemics such as childhood infections (eg., measles), and seasonally driven phytoplankton blooms observed in lakes and the oceans. A more detailed theoretical analysis of seasonally synchronized chaotic population cycles is presented.

  5. Mapping School Types in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Courtney, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    The number and range of school types in England is increasing rapidly in response to a neoliberal policy agenda aiming to expand choice of provision as a mechanism for raising educational standards. In this paper, I seek to undertake a mapping of these school types in order to describe and explain what is happening. I capture this busy terrain…

  6. Vietnam Education in New England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banit, Thomas

    1990-01-01

    Outlines reasons why teaching about Vietnam is important. Presents the results of a survey designed to find out what New England teachers are teaching about Vietnam. Critiques textbooks on the Vietnam War, and offers teaching strategies for Vietnam War instruction. Recommends the use of maps, films, and videos. (RW)

  7. New England After 3 PM

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Afterschool Alliance, 2007

    2007-01-01

    Some 20 percent of children in New England have no safe, supervised activities after the school day ends each afternoon. These children are in self-care, missing out on opportunities to learn and explore new interests, and at risk for any number of risky behaviors including substance abuse, crime and teen pregnancy. Policy makers, parents and many…

  8. Deinstitutionalisation in England. Data Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Emerson, Eric

    2004-01-01

    The implementation of policies associated with deinstitutionalisation has dominated the development of services for people with intellectual disabilities in most, although not all, of the world's richer countries (Braddock, Emerson, Felce & Stancliffe, 2001; Hatton, Emerson & Kiernan, 1995). In England, traditional large-scale institutional care…

  9. Promoting Community Cohesion in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris, Andrew B.; McDaid, Maggie; Potter, Hugh

    2011-01-01

    Following serious disturbances in some northern cities in England in 2001, concerns about possible rising inter-communal tension have led to a statutory duty to promote community cohesion being placed on schools. Inspectors from the Office for Standards in Education (Ofsted) are required to make judgements in the leadership and management section…

  10. Traditional Knowledge of Western Herbal Medicine and Complex Systems Science

    PubMed Central

    Niemeyer, Kathryn; Bell, Iris R.; Koithan, Mary

    2013-01-01

    Traditional knowledge of Western herbal medicine (WHM) supports experiential approaches to healing that have evolved over time. This is evident in the use of polyherb formulations comprised of crude plant parts, individually tailored to treat the cause of dysfunction and imbalance by addressing the whole person holistically. The challenge for WHM is to integrate science with traditional knowledge that is a foundation of the practice of WHM. The purpose of this paper is to provide a plausible theoretical hypothesis by applying complex systems science to WHM, illustrating how medicinal plants are complex, adaptive, environmentally interactive systems exhibiting synergy and nonlinear healing causality. This paper explores the conceptual congruence between medicinal plants and humans as complex systems coherently coupled through recurrent interaction. Complex systems science provides the theoretical tenets that explain traditional knowledge of medicinal plants while supporting clinical practice and expanding research and documentation of WHM. PMID:24058898

  11. [Complex system of differentiated prediction of strokes].

    PubMed

    Semak, A E; Misiuk, N S; Adamovich, V I; Plotnikov, Iu V; Khomasuridze, D O

    1987-01-01

    On the basis of the data on 2287 patients with cerebral strokes (CS) and 800 individuals without this disease, and using discriminant and probability methods, the authors have identified 158 supposed risk factors (RF) of CS development. They have also established the specificity of RFs which depends on the nature of CS, as well as ascertained the dependence of informative value of these factors on the size of samples and the degree of percentage reflection by the main demographic indicators of the studied population. RFs are classified as controllable and uncontrollable. The authors have selected 50 risk factors with 2-5 gradations ranging from the normal to the maximal pathology and reflecting various aspects of CS etiopathogenesis. This work has resulted in the creating of a mathematical model of SC development. On the basis of this model and using the Bayes' theorem the authors have developed a system intended for predicting CS and its nature by 50, 25, and 15 RFs which is implemented by means of universal, micro- or minicomputers and tables which make it possible to predict with a 88.8% accuracy the development of CS as well as to determine the most rational individual prophylaxis of threatening stroke which is achieved through an accurate balancing in the system of controllable and uncontrollable RFs.

  12. Complexity and significance in computer simulations of physiological systems.

    PubMed

    Kootsey, J M

    1987-06-01

    Complexity in a theoretical model may or may not be associated with a high level of arbitrariness, depending on how the model is constructed. In this paper I use examples from cardiac electrophysiology to illustrate two techniques for maintaining significance in complex simulations. First, the approaches of analysis and synthesis are compared as methods of constructing models of complex systems. When a model is constructed by synthesis of known principles, facts, and subunits, it may have any degree of complexity without losing significance; the same is not true for analysis models. Significance can also be maintained by assembling a limited model to test a specific hypothesis of mechanism.

  13. A synthesis and a practical approach to complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodu, Nicolas

    2006-06-01

    This document is both a synthesis of current notions about complex systems, and a practical approach description. A disambiguation is proposed and exposes possible reasons for controversies related to causation and emergence. Theoretical considerations about simulations are presented. A justification is then given for the development of practical tools and techniques for the investigation of complex systems. A methodology for the usage of these tools is finally suggested, illustrated by application examples.

  14. Modeling of Complex Adaptive Systems in Air Operations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-09-01

    control of C3 in an increasingly complex military environment. Control theory is a multidisciplinary science associated with dynamic systems and, while...AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2006-282 In- House Final Technical Report September 2006 MODELING OF COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN AIR OPERATIONS...NOTICE AND SIGNATURE PAGE Using Government drawings, specifications, or other data included in this document for any purpose other than Government

  15. A Simple Framework for Complex System Improvement

    PubMed Central

    Kraft, Sally; Carayon, Pascale; Weiss, Jennifer; Pandhi, Nancy

    2014-01-01

    The need to rapidly improve health care value is unquestioned, but the means to accomplish this task is unknown. Improving performance at the level of the health care organization frequently involves multiple interventions, which must be coordinated and sequenced to fit the specific context. Those responsible for achieving large-scale improvements are challenged by the lack of a framework to describe and organize improvement strategies. Drawing from the fields of health services, industrial engineering, and organizational behavior, a simple framework was developed and has been used to guide and evaluate improvement initiatives at an academic health center. The authors anticipate that this framework will be helpful for health system leaders responsible for improving health care quality. PMID:24723664

  16. Dynamics of ranking processes in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Blumm, Nicholas; Ghoshal, Gourab; Forró, Zalán; Schich, Maximilian; Bianconi, Ginestra; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Barabási, Albert-László

    2012-09-21

    The world is addicted to ranking: everything, from the reputation of scientists, journals, and universities to purchasing decisions is driven by measured or perceived differences between them. Here, we analyze empirical data capturing real time ranking in a number of systems, helping to identify the universal characteristics of ranking dynamics. We develop a continuum theory that not only predicts the stability of the ranking process, but shows that a noise-induced phase transition is at the heart of the observed differences in ranking regimes. The key parameters of the continuum theory can be explicitly measured from data, allowing us to predict and experimentally document the existence of three phases that govern ranking stability.

  17. Recording information on protein complexes in an information management system

    PubMed Central

    Savitsky, Marc; Diprose, Jonathan M.; Morris, Chris; Griffiths, Susanne L.; Daniel, Edward; Lin, Bill; Daenke, Susan; Bishop, Benjamin; Siebold, Christian; Wilson, Keith S.; Blake, Richard; Stuart, David I.; Esnouf, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    The Protein Information Management System (PiMS) is a laboratory information management system (LIMS) designed for use with the production of proteins in a research environment. The software is distributed under the CCP4 licence, and so is available free of charge to academic laboratories. Like most LIMS, the underlying PiMS data model originally had no support for protein–protein complexes. To support the SPINE2-Complexes project the developers have extended PiMS to meet these requirements. The modifications to PiMS, described here, include data model changes, additional protocols, some user interface changes and functionality to detect when an experiment may have formed a complex. Example data are shown for the production of a crystal of a protein complex. Integration with SPINE2-Complexes Target Tracker application is also described. PMID:21605682

  18. Recording information on protein complexes in an information management system.

    PubMed

    Savitsky, Marc; Diprose, Jonathan M; Morris, Chris; Griffiths, Susanne L; Daniel, Edward; Lin, Bill; Daenke, Susan; Bishop, Benjamin; Siebold, Christian; Wilson, Keith S; Blake, Richard; Stuart, David I; Esnouf, Robert M

    2011-08-01

    The Protein Information Management System (PiMS) is a laboratory information management system (LIMS) designed for use with the production of proteins in a research environment. The software is distributed under the CCP4 licence, and so is available free of charge to academic laboratories. Like most LIMS, the underlying PiMS data model originally had no support for protein-protein complexes. To support the SPINE2-Complexes project the developers have extended PiMS to meet these requirements. The modifications to PiMS, described here, include data model changes, additional protocols, some user interface changes and functionality to detect when an experiment may have formed a complex. Example data are shown for the production of a crystal of a protein complex. Integration with SPINE2-Complexes Target Tracker application is also described.

  19. Hydrodynamic complexity in the Earth system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltier, W. Richard

    Geophysical fluid Dynamics (GFD), as a recognizably distinct subdiscipline in the geophysical sciences, was probably born in the continuing series of Summer Schools in GFD that began at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution over 20 years ago. The goal of these schools was to bring together relatively small groups of gifted graduate students with professional academics working in the areas of astrophysics, atmospheric science, geophysics, oceanography and other areas in which models based upon the concepts of classical hydrodynamics were coming to be seen as central to the understanding of a wide range of dynamical processes. The point of this effort was, and remains, to emphasize the commonality of physical process that underlies the behaviour of such apparently unrelated systems and thereby to stimulate the growth of a new group of theoretical geophysicists whose members are as comfortable in analyzing the behaviour of the infinite Reynold number flows that dominate the general circulation of the planetary atmosphere as they are in developing models of the zero Reynolds number flow associated with convection in the earth's mantle. The goal was, and remains, for example, to educate astrophysicists to understand that the double diffusive processes at work in magnetoconvection in the earth's core (say) have many similarities with the processes that operate in the oceanographically important heat-salt system; and similarly to educate oceanographers to understand that the process of Gulf Stream ring formation has everything to do with the process of occlusion of a frontal baroclinic wave in the atmosphere, etc. The summary of the present state and future promise of this young science, by Raymond Hyde, in the preceding paper of this volume, has provided an interesting view of some of the areas of present research that are liable to be most productive of new insights in the immediate future. By way of this invited response to what Dr. Hyde has written I thought I

  20. Approximate entropy as a measure of system complexity.

    PubMed Central

    Pincus, S M

    1991-01-01

    Techniques to determine changing system complexity from data are evaluated. Convergence of a frequently used correlation dimension algorithm to a finite value does not necessarily imply an underlying deterministic model or chaos. Analysis of a recently developed family of formulas and statistics, approximate entropy (ApEn), suggests that ApEn can classify complex systems, given at least 1000 data values in diverse settings that include both deterministic chaotic and stochastic processes. The capability to discern changing complexity from such a relatively small amount of data holds promise for applications of ApEn in a variety of contexts. PMID:11607165

  1. Green photonics realized by optical complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanri, Hiroto; Sasaki, Wakao

    2013-12-01

    We have experimentally demonstrated a new smart grid model which can control DC electric power flow autonomously among individual homes, by using an optical self-organized node with optical non-linear characteristics, and these homes are assumed to be installed by distributed power supplies, and electric power storage devices, and also supposed to be supplied partly by the commercial electric power grid utilities. An electric power network is composed of nodes and devises called Power Gate Unit (PGU). The nodes have optical nonlinearity for self-organizing informations about surplus or shortage of electric power as to individual homes. The PGU is a distributing unit of actual electric power based on above informations of power surplus or shortage at each home. The PGU at each home is electrically connected to both the onsite power supplies and household load such as a solar panel, a DC motor, and a storage battery as well as the commercial electric power grid utilities. In this work, we composed our experimental self-organized DC power grid with above components and supposed the supplied maximum power from the commercial electric power grid utilities to be limited to 5V-0.5A. In this network, information about surplus or shortage of electric power will propagate through the nodes. In the experiments, surplus electric current 0.4A at a particular node was distributed toward a PGU of another node suffering from shortage of electric current. We also confirmed in the experiments and simulations that even when signal propagation path was disconnected accidentally the network could recover an optimized path. The present smart grid system we have attained may be applied by optical fiber link in the near future because our essential components controlling PGU, i.e. the nodes are electro-optical hybrid which are easily applicable to fiber optical link so as to control electric power transmission line.

  2. Leadership and transitions: maintaining the science in complexity and complex systems.

    PubMed

    Sturmberg, Joachim P; Martin, Carmel M

    2012-02-01

    It is the 'moral compass', however subtle, that underpins leadership. Leadership, meaning showing the way, demands as much conviction as gentile diplomacy in the discourse with supporters and detractors. In particular, leadership defends the goal by safeguarding its principles from its detractors. The authors writing in the Forum on Complexity in Medicine and Healthcare since its inception are leaders in an intellectual transition to complex systems thinking in medicine and health.

  3. Method and system for producing complex-shape objects

    DOEpatents

    Jeantette, Francisco P.; Keicher, David M.; Romero, Joseph A.; Schanwald, Lee P.

    2000-01-01

    A method and system are provided for producing complex, three-dimensional, net shape objects from a variety of powdered materials. The system includes unique components to ensure a uniform and continuous flow of powdered materials as well as to focus and locate the flow of powdered materials with respect to a laser beam which results in the melting of the powdered material. The system also includes a controller so that the flow of molten powdered materials can map out and form complex, three-dimensional, net-shape objects by layering the molten powdered material. Advantageously, such complex, three-dimensional net-shape objects can be produced having material densities varying from 90% of theoretical to fully dense, as well as a variety of controlled physical properties. Additionally, such complex, three-dimensional objects can be produced from two or more different materials so that the composition of the object can be transitioned from one material to another.

  4. Symmetric and Asymmetric Tendencies in Stable Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tan, James P. L.

    2016-01-01

    A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by obtaining eigenvalue bounds of the Jacobian, we show that stable complex systems will favor mutualistic and competitive relationships that are asymmetrical (non-reciprocative) and trophic relationships that are symmetrical (reciprocative). Additionally, we define a measure called the interdependence diversity that quantifies how distributed the dependencies are between the dynamical variables in the system. We find that increasing interdependence diversity has a destabilizing effect on the equilibrium point, and the effect is greater for trophic relationships than for mutualistic and competitive relationships. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations in ecology. More importantly, our findings suggest stabilization algorithms that can apply very generally to a variety of complex systems. PMID:27545722

  5. Symmetric and Asymmetric Tendencies in Stable Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    Tan, James P L

    2016-08-22

    A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by obtaining eigenvalue bounds of the Jacobian, we show that stable complex systems will favor mutualistic and competitive relationships that are asymmetrical (non-reciprocative) and trophic relationships that are symmetrical (reciprocative). Additionally, we define a measure called the interdependence diversity that quantifies how distributed the dependencies are between the dynamical variables in the system. We find that increasing interdependence diversity has a destabilizing effect on the equilibrium point, and the effect is greater for trophic relationships than for mutualistic and competitive relationships. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations in ecology. More importantly, our findings suggest stabilization algorithms that can apply very generally to a variety of complex systems.

  6. Design and implementation of a distributed Complex Event Processing system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Shang, Yanlei

    2017-01-01

    Making use of the massive events from event sources such as sensors and bank transactions and extract valuable information is of significant importance. Complex Event Processing (CEP), a method of detecting complex events from simple events stream, provides a solution of processing data in real time fast and efficiently. However, a single node CEP system can't satisfy requirements of processing massive event streams from multitudinous event sources. Therefore, this article designs a distributed CEP system, which combine Siddhi, a CEP engine, and Storm, a distributed real time computation architecture. This system can construct topology automatically based on the event streams and execution plans provided by users and process the event streams parallel. Compared with single node complex event system, the distributed system can achieve better performance.

  7. Universality of flux-fluctuation law in complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Zhao; Huang, Zi-Gang; Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Yang, Lei; Xue, De-Sheng

    2013-01-01

    Recent work has revealed a law governing flux fluctuation and the average flux in complex dynamical systems. We establish the universality of this flux-fluctuation law through the following steps: (i) We derive the law in a more general setting, showing that it depends on a single parameter characterizing the external driving; (ii) we conduct extensive numerical computations using distinct external driving, different network topologies, and multiple traffic routing strategies; and (iii) we analyze data from an actual vehicle traffic system in a major city in China to lend more credence to the universality of the flux-fluctuation law. Additional factors considered include flux fluctuation on links, window size effect, and hidden topological structures such as nodal degree correlation. Besides its fundamental importance in complex systems, the flux-fluctuation law can be used to infer certain intrinsic property of the system for potential applications such as control of complex systems for improved performance.

  8. Cx-02 Program, workshop on modeling complex systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mossotti, Victor G.; Barragan, Jo Ann; Westergard, Todd D.

    2003-01-01

    This publication contains the abstracts and program for the workshop on complex systems that was held on November 19-21, 2002, in Reno, Nevada. Complex systems are ubiquitous within the realm of the earth sciences. Geological systems consist of a multiplicity of linked components with nested feedback loops; the dynamics of these systems are non-linear, iterative, multi-scale, and operate far from equilibrium. That notwithstanding, It appears that, with the exception of papers on seismic studies, geology and geophysics work has been disproportionally underrepresented at regional and national meetings on complex systems relative to papers in the life sciences. This is somewhat puzzling because geologists and geophysicists are, in many ways, preadapted to thinking of complex system mechanisms. Geologists and geophysicists think about processes involving large volumes of rock below the sunlit surface of Earth, the accumulated consequence of processes extending hundreds of millions of years in the past. Not only do geologists think in the abstract by virtue of the vast time spans, most of the evidence is out-of-sight. A primary goal of this workshop is to begin to bridge the gap between the Earth sciences and life sciences through demonstration of the universality of complex systems science, both philosophically and in model structures.

  9. Semiotic aspects of control and modeling relations in complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Joslyn, C.

    1996-08-01

    A conceptual analysis of the semiotic nature of control is provided with the goal of elucidating its nature in complex systems. Control is identified as a canonical form of semiotic relation of a system to its environment. As a form of constraint between a system and its environment, its necessary and sufficient conditions are established, and the stabilities resulting from control are distinguished from other forms of stability. These result from the presence of semantic coding relations, and thus the class of control systems is hypothesized to be equivalent to that of semiotic systems. Control systems are contrasted with models, which, while they have the same measurement functions as control systems, do not necessarily require semantic relations because of the lack of the requirement of an interpreter. A hybrid construction of models in control systems is detailed. Towards the goal of considering the nature of control in complex systems, the possible relations among collections of control systems are considered. Powers arguments on conflict among control systems and the possible nature of control in social systems are reviewed, and reconsidered based on our observations about hierarchical control. Finally, we discuss the necessary semantic functions which must be present in complex systems for control in this sense to be present at all.

  10. Classroom Evaluation Practices of Secondary Teachers in England and Minnesota.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Terwilliger, James S.

    This study was designed to obtain descriptive data on the classroom evaluation practices of secondary teachers in two different public school systems. A self-report survey instrument was employed to collect data from 217 teachers in York, England, and 217 teachers in Minnesota. Respondents were asked to indicate which specific techniques they…

  11. Recent Developments in Assessment Procedures in England and Wales.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstein, Harvey; Nuttall, Desmond

    Focusing on technical issues, this paper critiques proposed changes in assessment procedures at the further educational level (ages 16 through 18) in England and Wales. Major structural changes are taking place at this educational level, partly because of large scale youth unemployment. The two current examination systems for the final year of…

  12. Fatal Child Maltreatment in England, 2005-2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sidebotham, Peter; Bailey, Sue; Belderson, Pippa; Brandon, Marian

    2011-01-01

    Objective: This paper presents comprehensive and up-to-date data covering 4 years of Serious Case Reviews into fatal child maltreatment in England. Methods: Information on all notified cases of fatal maltreatment between April 2005 and March 2009 was examined to obtain case characteristics related to a systemic classification of 5 broad groups of…

  13. Demographic Demise: The Declining Young Adult Population in New England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gittell, Ross

    2007-01-01

    Young adult workers provide businesses with the dynamic labor force and fresh ideas they need to innovate and grow. With their contributions to cultural, intellectual and social life, young adults also make New England a vibrant and interesting place to live. Young families support local schools and demand a strong educational system. Yet New…

  14. Policy Perspective: School Turnaround in England. Utilizing the Private Sector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corbett, Julie

    2014-01-01

    This paper, written by strategic partner of the Center on School Turnaround (CST), Julie Corbett, provides research and examples on England's approach to turning around its lowest performing schools. The English education system utilizes private vendors to support chronically low-performing schools and districts. The introduction is followed by…

  15. Effect of feeding intensity and milking system on nutritionally relevant milk components in dairy farming systems in the North East of England.

    PubMed

    Stergiadis, Sokratis; Leifert, Carlo; Seal, Chris J; Eyre, Mick D; Nielsen, Jacob H; Larsen, Mette K; Slots, Tina; Steinshamn, Håvard; Butler, Gillian

    2012-07-25

    There is increasing concern that the intensification of dairy production reduces the concentrations of nutritionally desirable compounds in milk. This study therefore compared important quality parameters (protein and fatty acid profiles; α-tocopherol and carotenoid concentrations) in milk from four dairy systems with contrasting production intensities (in terms of feeding regimens and milking systems). The concentrations of several nutritionally desirable compounds (β-lactoglobulin, omega-3 fatty acids, omega-3/omega-6 ratio, conjugated linoleic acid c9t11, and/or carotenoids) decreased with increasing feeding intensity (organic outdoor ≥ conventional outdoor ≥ conventional indoors). Milking system intensification (use of robotic milking parlors) had a more limited effect on milk composition, but increased mastitis incidence. Multivariate analyses indicated that differences in milk quality were mainly linked to contrasting feeding regimens and that milking system and breed choice also contributed to differences in milk composition between production systems.

  16. Solving complex-valued linear systems via equivalent real formulations

    SciTech Connect

    DAY,DAVID M.; HEROUX,MICHAEL A.

    2000-05-22

    Most algorithms used in preconditioned iterative methods are generally applicable to complex valued linear systems, with real valued linear systems simply being a special case. However, most iterative solver packages available today focus exclusively on real valued systems, or deal with complex valued systems as an afterthought. One obvious approach to addressing this problem is to recast the complex problem into one of a several equivalent real forms and then use a real valued solver to solve the related system. However, well-known theoretical results showing unfavorable spectral properties for the equivalent real forms have diminished enthusiasm for this approach. At the same time, experience has shown that there are situations where using an equivalent real form can be very effective. In this paper, the authors explore this approach, giving both theoretical and experimental evidence that an equivalent real form can be useful for a number of practical situations. Furthermore, they show that by making good use of some of the advance features of modem solver packages, they can easily generate equivalent real form preconditioners that are computationally efficient and mathematically identical to their complex counterparts. Using their techniques, they are able to solve very ill-conditioned complex valued linear systems for a variety of large scale applications. However, more importantly, they shed more light on the effectiveness of equivalent real forms and more clearly delineate how and when they should be used.

  17. A Multiobjective Optimization Framework for Stochastic Control of Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Malikopoulos, Andreas; Maroulas, Vasileios; Xiong, Professor Jie

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of subsystems that interact with each other and the environment. We treat the stochastic control problem as a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems, and we show that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution is an optimal control policy that minimizes the average cost criterion for the entire system. For practical situations with constraints consistent to those we study here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value in deriving online an optimal control policy in complex systems.

  18. From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology

    SciTech Connect

    Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2015-09-15

    Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

  19. A duality framework for stochastic optimal control of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Malikopoulos, Andreas A.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we address the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of interactive subsystems. We formulate a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems and provide a duality framework to prove that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion of the system. We provide the conditions of existence and a geometric interpretation of the solution. For practical situations having constraints consistent with those studied here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value when we seek to derive online the optimal control policy in complex systems.

  20. From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2015-09-01

    Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

  1. From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology.

    PubMed

    Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2015-09-01

    Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

  2. Can Models Capture the Complexity of the Systems Engineering Process?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boppana, Krishna; Chow, Sam; de Weck, Olivier L.; Lafon, Christian; Lekkakos, Spyridon D.; Lyneis, James; Rinaldi, Matthew; Wang, Zhiyong; Wheeler, Paul; Zborovskiy, Marat; Wojcik, Leonard A.

    Many large-scale, complex systems engineering (SE) programs have been problematic; a few examples are listed below (Bar-Yam, 2003 and Cullen, 2004), and many others have been late, well over budget, or have failed: Hilton/Marriott/American Airlines system for hotel reservations and flights; 1988-1992; 125 million; "scrapped"

  3. Complex Moving Parts: Assessment Systems and Electronic Portfolios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larkin, Martha J.; Robertson, Royce L.

    2013-01-01

    The largest college within an online university of over 50,000 students invested significant resources in translating a complex assessment system focused on continuous improvement and national accreditation into an effective and efficient electronic portfolio (ePortfolio). The team building the system needed a model to address problems met…

  4. Understanding leukemic hematopoiesis as a complex adaptive system

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    Normal and abnormal hematopoiesis is working as a complex adaptive system. From this perspective, the development and the behavior of hematopoietic cell lineages appear as a balance between normal and abnormal hematopoiesis in the setting of a functioning or malfunctioning microenvironment under the control of the immune system and the influence of hereditary and environmental events. PMID:26516407

  5. Understanding leukemic hematopoiesis as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Xavier

    2015-10-26

    Normal and abnormal hematopoiesis is working as a complex adaptive system. From this perspective, the development and the behavior of hematopoietic cell lineages appear as a balance between normal and abnormal hematopoiesis in the setting of a functioning or malfunctioning microenvironment under the control of the immune system and the influence of hereditary and environmental events.

  6. Dual-phase evolution in complex adaptive systems

    PubMed Central

    Paperin, Greg; Green, David G.; Sadedin, Suzanne

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the origins of complexity is a key challenge in many sciences. Although networks are known to underlie most systems, showing how they contribute to well-known phenomena remains an issue. Here, we show that recurrent phase transitions in network connectivity underlie emergent phenomena in many systems. We identify properties that are typical of systems in different connectivity phases, as well as characteristics commonly associated with the phase transitions. We synthesize these common features into a common framework, which we term dual-phase evolution (DPE). Using this framework, we review the literature from several disciplines to show that recurrent connectivity phase transitions underlie the complex properties of many biological, physical and human systems. We argue that the DPE framework helps to explain many complex phenomena, including perpetual novelty, modularity, scale-free networks and criticality. Our review concludes with a discussion of the way DPE relates to other frameworks, in particular, self-organized criticality and the adaptive cycle. PMID:21247947

  7. Complex Homology and the Evolution of Nervous Systems

    PubMed Central

    Liebeskind, Benjamin J.; Hillis, David M.; Zakon, Harold H.; Hofmann, Hans A.

    2016-01-01

    We examine the complex evolution of animal nervous systems and discuss the ramifications of this complexity for inferring the nature of early animals. Although reconstructing the origins of nervous systems remains a central challenge in biology, and the phenotypic complexity of early animals remains controversial, a compelling picture is emerging. We now know that the nervous system and other key animal innovations contain a large degree of homoplasy, at least on the molecular level. Conflicting hypotheses about early nervous system evolution are due primarily to differences in the interpretation of this homoplasy. We highlight the need for explicit discussion of assumptions and discuss the limitations of current approaches for inferring ancient phenotypic states. PMID:26746806

  8. Data driven uncertainty evaluation for complex engineered system design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Boyuan; Huang, Shuangxi; Fan, Wenhui; Xiao, Tianyuan; Humann, James; Lai, Yuyang; Jin, Yan

    2016-09-01

    Complex engineered systems are often difficult to analyze and design due to the tangled interdependencies among their subsystems and components. Conventional design methods often need exact modeling or accurate structure decomposition, which limits their practical application. The rapid expansion of data makes utilizing data to guide and improve system design indispensable in practical engineering. In this paper, a data driven uncertainty evaluation approach is proposed to support the design of complex engineered systems. The core of the approach is a data-mining based uncertainty evaluation method that predicts the uncertainty level of a specific system design by means of analyzing association relations along different system attributes and synthesizing the information entropy of the covered attribute areas, and a quantitative measure of system uncertainty can be obtained accordingly. Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to get the uncertainty extrema, and the possible data distributions under different situations is discussed in detail. The uncertainty values can be normalized using the simulation results and the values can be used to evaluate different system designs. A prototype system is established, and two case studies have been carried out. The case of an inverted pendulum system validates the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the case of an oil sump design shows the practicability when two or more design plans need to be compared. This research can be used to evaluate the uncertainty of complex engineered systems completely relying on data, and is ideally suited for plan selection and performance analysis in system design.

  9. Complexes of minor bodies in the Solar system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terentjeva, A. K.; Barabanov, S. I.

    2011-12-01

    In this paper three complexes of minor bodies in the Solar System are considered. First complex is related with periodic comet Finlay. It includes meteorite Murchison, fall on 1969 September 28 in Australia, fireball stream, five asteroids, comet Haneda-Campos (D/1978 R1), and perhaps, comet Lexell (1770 I) with its family of minor meteor streams.Thea family of comet C/SOHO (2002 V5), consisting of 20 comets, and a large shower of small meteoroids, detected by radar observations (191 orbit), are the second complex of small bodies. The C/SOHO (2001 D1) with two showers of meteoric bodies, found by radar observations (155 orbits) belongs to the third complex of small bodies. The composition of the comet and meteor wide complex also includes a showers of the May Skorpionid with bright meteors and fireballs.

  10. A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity. PMID:27297496

  11. Analysis of complex physiological systems by information flow: a time scale-specific complexity assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoyer, Dirk; Frank, Birgit; Pompe, Bernd; Schmidt, Hendrik; Werdan, Karl; Müller-Werdan, Ursula; Baranowski, Rafal; Zebrowski, Jan J; Meissner, Winfried; Kletzin, Ulf; Adler, Daniela; Adler, Steffen; Blickhan, Reinhard

    2006-07-01

    In the last two decades conventional linear methods for biosignal analysis have been substantially extended by non-stationary, non-linear, and complexity approaches. So far, complexity is usually assessed with regard to one single time scale, disregarding complex physiology organised on different time scales. This shortcoming was overcome and medically evaluated by information flow functions developed in our research group in collaboration with several theoretical, experimental, and clinical partners. In the present work, the information flow is introduced and typical information flow characteristics are demonstrated. The prognostic value of autonomic information flow (AIF), which reflects communication in the cardiovascular system, was shown in patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and in patients with heart failure. Gait information flow (GIF), which reflects communication in the motor control system during walking, was introduced to discriminate between controls and elderly patients suffering from low back pain. The applications presented for the theoretically based approach of information flow confirm its value for the identification of complex physiological systems. The medical relevance has to be confirmed by comprehensive clinical studies. These information flow measures substantially extend the established linear and complexity measures in biosignal analysis.

  12. Observation-Driven Configuration of Complex Software Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sage, Aled

    2010-06-01

    The ever-increasing complexity of software systems makes them hard to comprehend, predict and tune due to emergent properties and non-deterministic behaviour. Complexity arises from the size of software systems and the wide variety of possible operating environments: the increasing choice of platforms and communication policies leads to ever more complex performance characteristics. In addition, software systems exhibit different behaviour under different workloads. Many software systems are designed to be configurable so that policies can be chosen to meet the needs of various stakeholders. For complex software systems it can be difficult to accurately predict the effects of a change and to know which configuration is most appropriate. This thesis demonstrates that it is useful to run automated experiments that measure a selection of system configurations. Experiments can find configurations that meet the stakeholders' needs, find interesting behavioural characteristics, and help produce predictive models of the system's behaviour. The design and use of ACT (Automated Configuration Tool) for running such experiments is described, in combination a number of search strategies for deciding on the configurations to measure. Design Of Experiments (DOE) is discussed, with emphasis on Taguchi Methods. These statistical methods have been used extensively in manufacturing, but have not previously been used for configuring software systems. The novel contribution here is an industrial case study, applying the combination of ACT and Taguchi Methods to DC-Directory, a product from Data Connection Ltd (DCL). The case study investigated the applicability of Taguchi Methods for configuring complex software systems. Taguchi Methods were found to be useful for modelling and configuring DC- Directory, making them a valuable addition to the techniques available to system administrators and developers.

  13. Demonstration of a Safety Analysis on a Complex System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Alfaro, Liliana; Alvarado, Christine; Brown, Molly; Hunt, Earl B.; Jaffe, Matt; Joslyn, Susan; Pinnell, Denise; Reese, Jon; Samarziya, Jeffrey; Sandys, Sean; Shaw, Alan; Zabinsky, Zelda

    1997-01-01

    For the past 17 years, Professor Leveson and her graduate students have been developing a theoretical foundation for safety in complex systems and building a methodology upon that foundation. The methodology includes special management structures and procedures, system hazard analyses, software hazard analysis, requirements modeling and analysis for completeness and safety, special software design techniques including the design of human-machine interaction, verification, operational feedback, and change analysis. The Safeware methodology is based on system safety techniques that are extended to deal with software and human error. Automation is used to enhance our ability to cope with complex systems. Identification, classification, and evaluation of hazards is done using modeling and analysis. To be effective, the models and analysis tools must consider the hardware, software, and human components in these systems. They also need to include a variety of analysis techniques and orthogonal approaches: There exists no single safety analysis or evaluation technique that can handle all aspects of complex systems. Applying only one or two may make us feel satisfied, but will produce limited results. We report here on a demonstration, performed as part of a contract with NASA Langley Research Center, of the Safeware methodology on the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) portion of the air traffic control (ATC) system and procedures currently employed at the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach CONtrol). CTAS is an automated system to assist controllers in handling arrival traffic in the DFW area. Safety is a system property, not a component property, so our safety analysis considers the entire system and not simply the automated components. Because safety analysis of a complex system is an interdisciplinary effort, our team included system engineers, software engineers, human factors experts, and cognitive psychologists.

  14. Statistical measures of complexity for quantum systems with continuous variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manzano, D.

    2012-12-01

    The Fisher-Shannon statistical measure of complexity is analyzed for a continuous manifold of quantum observables. It is shown that evaluating this measure only in the configuration or in the momentum spaces does not provide an adequate characterization of the complexity of some quantum systems. In order to obtain a more complete description of complexity two new measures, respectively based on the minimization and the integration of the usual Fisher-Shannon measure over all the parameter space, are proposed and compared. Finally, these measures are applied to the concrete case of a free particle in a box.

  15. Conceptual Foundations of Systems Biology Explaining Complex Cardiac Diseases.

    PubMed

    Louridas, George E; Lourida, Katerina G

    2017-02-21

    Systems biology is an important concept that connects molecular biology and genomics with computing science, mathematics and engineering. An endeavor is made in this paper to associate basic conceptual ideas of systems biology with clinical medicine. Complex cardiac diseases are clinical phenotypes generated by integration of genetic, molecular and environmental factors. Basic concepts of systems biology like network construction, modular thinking, biological constraints (downward biological direction) and emergence (upward biological direction) could be applied to clinical medicine. Especially, in the field of cardiology, these concepts can be used to explain complex clinical cardiac phenotypes like chronic heart failure and coronary artery disease. Cardiac diseases are biological complex entities which like other biological phenomena can be explained by a systems biology approach. The above powerful biological tools of systems biology can explain robustness growth and stability during disease process from modulation to phenotype. The purpose of the present review paper is to implement systems biology strategy and incorporate some conceptual issues raised by this approach into the clinical field of complex cardiac diseases. Cardiac disease process and progression can be addressed by the holistic realistic approach of systems biology in order to define in better terms earlier diagnosis and more effective therapy.

  16. Conceptual Foundations of Systems Biology Explaining Complex Cardiac Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Louridas, George E.; Lourida, Katerina G.

    2017-01-01

    Systems biology is an important concept that connects molecular biology and genomics with computing science, mathematics and engineering. An endeavor is made in this paper to associate basic conceptual ideas of systems biology with clinical medicine. Complex cardiac diseases are clinical phenotypes generated by integration of genetic, molecular and environmental factors. Basic concepts of systems biology like network construction, modular thinking, biological constraints (downward biological direction) and emergence (upward biological direction) could be applied to clinical medicine. Especially, in the field of cardiology, these concepts can be used to explain complex clinical cardiac phenotypes like chronic heart failure and coronary artery disease. Cardiac diseases are biological complex entities which like other biological phenomena can be explained by a systems biology approach. The above powerful biological tools of systems biology can explain robustness growth and stability during disease process from modulation to phenotype. The purpose of the present review paper is to implement systems biology strategy and incorporate some conceptual issues raised by this approach into the clinical field of complex cardiac diseases. Cardiac disease process and progression can be addressed by the holistic realistic approach of systems biology in order to define in better terms earlier diagnosis and more effective therapy. PMID:28230815

  17. Automated Derivation of Complex System Constraints from User Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muery, Kim; Foshee, Mark; Marsh, Angela

    2006-01-01

    International Space Station (ISS) payload developers submit their payload science requirements for the development of on-board execution timelines. The ISS systems required to execute the payload science operations must be represented as constraints for the execution timeline. Payload developers use a software application, User Requirements Collection (URC), to submit their requirements by selecting a simplified representation of ISS system constraints. To fully represent the complex ISS systems, the constraints require a level of detail that is beyond the insight of the payload developer. To provide the complex representation of the ISS system constraints, HOSC operations personnel, specifically the Payload Activity Requirements Coordinators (PARC), manually translate the payload developers simplified constraints into detailed ISS system constraints used for scheduling the payload activities in the Consolidated Planning System (CPS). This paper describes the implementation for a software application, User Requirements Integration (URI), developed to automate the manual ISS constraint translation process.

  18. Stephen Jay Kline on systems, or physics, complex systems, and the gap between.

    SciTech Connect

    Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2011-06-01

    At the end of his life, Stephen Jay Kline, longtime professor of mechanical engineering at Stanford University, completed a book on how to address complex systems. The title of the book is 'Conceptual Foundations of Multi-Disciplinary Thinking' (1995), but the topic of the book is systems. Kline first establishes certain limits that are characteristic of our conscious minds. Kline then establishes a complexity measure for systems and uses that complexity measure to develop a hierarchy of systems. Kline then argues that our minds, due to their characteristic limitations, are unable to model the complex systems in that hierarchy. Computers are of no help to us here. Our attempts at modeling these complex systems are based on the way we successfully model some simple systems, in particular, 'inert, naturally-occurring' objects and processes, such as what is the focus of physics. But complex systems overwhelm such attempts. As a result, the best we can do in working with these complex systems is to use a heuristic, what Kline calls the 'Guideline for Complex Systems.' Kline documents the problems that have developed due to 'oversimple' system models and from the inappropriate application of a system model from one domain to another. One prominent such problem is the Procrustean attempt to make the disciplines that deal with complex systems be 'physics-like.' Physics deals with simple systems, not complex ones, using Kline's complexity measure. The models that physics has developed are inappropriate for complex systems. Kline documents a number of the wasteful and dangerous fallacies of this type.

  19. Phase Synchronization in Coupled Complex Systems - From Neuroscience to Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurths, Juergen

    2001-03-01

    The phenomenon of phase synchronization, especially in weakly coupled complex systems will be explained. Next it will be discussed how to identify epochs of phase synchronization in noisy data. In the second part I will demonstrate the potential of this approach for some examples from natural systems; in particular for brain and muscle activity of Parkinsonian patients, cardio-respiratory interactions in humans and rats and for a chaotically forced climate system.

  20. State analysis requirements database for engineering complex embedded systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bennett, Matthew B.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Ingham, Michel D.

    2004-01-01

    It has become clear that spacecraft system complexity is reaching a threshold where customary methods of control are no longer affordable or sufficiently reliable. At the heart of this problem are the conventional approaches to systems and software engineering based on subsystem-level functional decomposition, which fail to scale in the tangled web of interactions typically encountered in complex spacecraft designs. Furthermore, there is a fundamental gap between the requirements on software specified by systems engineers and the implementation of these requirements by software engineers. Software engineers must perform the translation of requirements into software code, hoping to accurately capture the systems engineer's understanding of the system behavior, which is not always explicitly specified. This gap opens up the possibility for misinterpretation of the systems engineer's intent, potentially leading to software errors. This problem is addressed by a systems engineering tool called the State Analysis Database, which provides a tool for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models. This paper describes how requirements for complex aerospace systems can be developed using the State Analysis Database.

  1. Solution of generalized shifted linear systems with complex symmetric matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sogabe, Tomohiro; Hoshi, Takeo; Zhang, Shao-Liang; Fujiwara, Takeo

    2012-07-01

    We develop the shifted COCG method [R. Takayama, T. Hoshi, T. Sogabe, S.-L. Zhang, T. Fujiwara, Linear algebraic calculation of Green's function for large-scale electronic structure theory, Phys. Rev. B 73 (165108) (2006) 1-9] and the shifted WQMR method [T. Sogabe, T. Hoshi, S.-L. Zhang, T. Fujiwara, On a weighted quasi-residual minimization strategy of the QMR method for solving complex symmetric shifted linear systems, Electron. Trans. Numer. Anal. 31 (2008) 126-140] for solving generalized shifted linear systems with complex symmetric matrices that arise from the electronic structure theory. The complex symmetric Lanczos process with a suitable bilinear form plays an important role in the development of the methods. The numerical examples indicate that the methods are highly attractive when the inner linear systems can efficiently be solved.

  2. Governance of complex systems: results of a sociological simulation experiment.

    PubMed

    Adelt, Fabian; Weyer, Johannes; Fink, Robin D

    2014-01-01

    Social sciences have discussed the governance of complex systems for a long time. The following paper tackles the issue by means of experimental sociology, in order to investigate the performance of different modes of governance empirically. The simulation framework developed is based on Esser's model of sociological explanation as well as on Kroneberg's model of frame selection. The performance of governance has been measured by means of three macro and two micro indicators. Surprisingly, central control mostly performs better than decentralised coordination. However, results not only depend on the mode of governance, but there is also a relation between performance and the composition of actor populations, which has yet not been investigated sufficiently. Practitioner Summary: Practitioners can gain insights into the functioning of complex systems and learn how to better manage them. Additionally, they are provided with indicators to measure the performance of complex systems.

  3. Unraveling the New England orocline, east Gondwana accretionary margin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cawood, P. A.; Pisarevsky, S. A.; Leitch, E. C.

    2011-10-01

    The New England orocline lies within the Eastern Australian segment of the Terra Australis accretionary orogen and developed during the late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic Gondwanide Orogeny (310-230 Ma) that extended along the Pacific margin of the Gondwana supercontinent. The orocline deformed a pre-Permian arc assemblage consisting of a western magmatic arc, an adjoining forearc basin and an eastern subduction complex. The orocline is doubly vergent with the southern and northern segments displaying counter-clockwise and clockwise rotation, respectively, and this has led to contrasting models of formation. We resolve these conflicting models with one that involves buckling of the arc system about a vertical axis during progressive northward translation of the southern segment of the arc system against the northern segment, which is pinned relative to cratonic Gondwana. Paleomagnetic data are consistent with this model and show that an alternative model involving southward motion of the northern segment relative to the southern segment and cratonic Gondwana is not permissible. The timing of the final stage of orocline formation (˜270-265 Ma) overlaps with a major gap in magmatic activity along this segment of the Gondwana margin, suggesting that northward motion and orocline formation were driven by a change from orthogonal to oblique convergence and coupling between the Gondwana and Pacific plates.

  4. Balancing Management and Leadership in Complex Health Systems

    PubMed Central

    Kwamie, Aku

    2015-01-01

    Health systems, particularly those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), need stronger management and leadership capacities. Management and leadership are not synonymous, yet should be considered together as there can be too much of one and not enough of the other. In complex adaptive health systems, the multiple interactions and relationships between people and elements of the system mean that management and leadership, so often treated as domains of the individual, are additionally systemic phenomena, emerging from these relational interactions. This brief commentary notes some significant implications for how we can support capacity strengthening interventions for complex management and leadership. These would necessarily move away from competency-based models focused on training for individuals, and would rather encompass longer-term initiatives explicitly focused on systemic goals of accountability, innovation, and learning. PMID:26673472

  5. Agent Technology, Complex Adaptive Systems, and Autonomic Systems: Their Relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James; Rouff, Chistopher; Hincheny, Mike

    2004-01-01

    To reduce the cost of future spaceflight missions and to perform new science, NASA has been investigating autonomous ground and space flight systems. These goals of cost reduction have been further complicated by nanosatellites for future science data-gathering which will have large communications delays and at times be out of contact with ground control for extended periods of time. This paper describes two prototype agent-based systems, the Lights-out Ground Operations System (LOGOS) and the Agent Concept Testbed (ACT), and their autonomic properties that were developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to demonstrate autonomous operations of future space flight missions. The paper discusses the architecture of the two agent-based systems, operational scenarios of both, and the two systems autonomic properties.

  6. Character change of New England snow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huntington, T.G.; Hodgkins, G.A.; Keim, B.D.; Dudley, R.W.

    2004-01-01

    The annual ratio of snow to total precipitation (S/P) for 11 out of 21 US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) sites in New England decreased significantly from 1949 through 2000. One possible explanation for the observed decrease in S/P ratio is that their temperature increased in New England during the 20th century. The results are consistent with published reports indicating lengthening of the growing season in New England.

  7. Trust, Nostalgia and Narrative Accounts of Blood Banking in England in the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Busby, Helen Wynne

    2010-01-01

    Historically, cultural accounts and descriptions of blood banking in Britain have been associated with notions of altruism, national solidarity and imagined community. While these ideals have continued to be influential, the business of procuring and supplying blood has become increasingly complex. Drawing on interview data with donors in one blood centre in England, this article reports that these donors tend not to acknowledge the complex dynamics of production and exchange in modern blood systems. This, it is argued, is congruent with nostalgic narratives in both popular and official accounts of blood services, which tend to bracket these important changes. A shift to a more open institutional narrative about modern blood services is advocated, as blood services face current and future challenges. PMID:20603307

  8. Trust, nostalgia and narrative accounts of blood banking in England in the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Wynne Busby, Helen

    2010-07-01

    Historically, cultural accounts and descriptions of blood banking in Britain have been associated with notions of altruism, national solidarity and imagined community. While these ideals have continued to be influential, the business of procuring and supplying blood has become increasingly complex. Drawing on interview data with donors in one blood centre in England, this article reports that these donors tend not to acknowledge the complex dynamics of production and exchange in modern blood systems. This, it is argued, is congruent with nostalgic narratives in both popular and official accounts of blood services, which tend to bracket these important changes. A shift to a more open institutional narrative about modern blood services is advocated, as blood services face current and future challenges.

  9. Managing Programmatic Risk for Complex Space System Developments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Panetta, Peter V.; Hastings, Daniel; Brumfield, Mark (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Risk management strategies have become a recent important research topic to many aerospace organizations as they prepare to develop the revolutionary complex space systems of the future. Future multi-disciplinary complex space systems will make it absolutely essential for organizations to practice a rigorous, comprehensive risk management process, emphasizing thorough systems engineering principles to succeed. Project managers must possess strong leadership skills to direct high quality, cross-disciplinary teams for successfully developing revolutionary space systems that are ever increasing in complexity. Proactive efforts to reduce or eliminate risk throughout a project's lifecycle ideally must be practiced by all technical members in the organization. This paper discusses some of the risk management perspectives that were collected from senior managers and project managers of aerospace and aeronautical organizations by the use of interviews and surveys. Some of the programmatic risks which drive the success or failure of projects are revealed. Key findings lead to a number of insights for organizations to consider for proactively approaching the risks which face current and future complex space systems projects.

  10. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

  11. New England Drinking Water Program | US EPA

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2017-04-10

    Information on Drinking Water in New England. Major Topics covered include: Conservation, Private Wells, Preventing Contamination, Drinking Water Sources, Consumer Confidence Reports, and Drinking Water Awards.

  12. Southeast New England Coastal Watershed Restoration Program

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Southeast New England Program aims to enhance collaboration among stakeholders and promote innovation in policy, monitoring and best management practices in Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.

  13. Refined scale-dependent permutation entropy to analyze systems complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shuen-De; Wu, Chiu-Wen; Humeau-Heurtier, Anne

    2016-05-01

    Multiscale entropy (MSE) has become a prevailing method to quantify the complexity of systems. Unfortunately, MSE has a temporal complexity in O(N2) , which is unrealistic for long time series. Moreover, MSE relies on the sample entropy computation which is length-dependent and which leads to large variance and possible undefined entropy values for short time series. Here, we propose and introduce a new multiscale complexity measure, the refined scale-dependent permutation entropy (RSDPE). Through the processing of different kinds of synthetic data and real signals, we show that RSDPE has a behavior close to the one of MSE. Furthermore, RSDPE has a temporal complexity in O(N) . Finally, RSDPE has the advantage of being much less length-dependent than MSE. From all this, we conclude that RSDPE over-performs MSE in terms of computational cost and computational accuracy.

  14. Non-metallocene organometallic complexes and related methods and systems

    DOEpatents

    Agapie, Theodor; Golisz, Suzanne Rose; Tofan, Daniel; Bercaw, John E.

    2010-12-07

    A non-metallocene organometallic complex comprising a tridentate ligand and a metal bonded to a tridentate ligand, wherein two substituted aryl groups in the tridentate ligand are connected to a cyclic group at the ortho position via semi-rigid ring-ring linkages, and selected so to provide the resulting non-metallocene organometallic complex with a C.sub.S geometry, a C.sub.1 geometry, a C.sub.2 geometry or a C.sub.2v geometry. Method for performing olefin polymerization with a non-metallocene organometallic complex as a catalyst, related catalytic systems, tridentate ligand and method for providing a non-metallocene organometallic complex.

  15. 78 FR 32384 - New England Power Generators Association v. ISO New England Inc.; Notice of Complaint

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission New England Power Generators Association v. ISO New England Inc.; Notice of...) filed a formal complaint against ISO New England Inc. (Respondent) alleging that certain newly...

  16. Understanding global health governance as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Hill, Peter S

    2011-01-01

    The transition from international to global health reflects the rapid growth in the numbers and nature of stakeholders in health, as well as the constant change embodied in the process of globalisation itself. This paper argues that global health governance shares the characteristics of complex adaptive systems, with its multiple and diverse players, and their polyvalent and constantly evolving relationships, and rich and dynamic interactions. The sheer quantum of initiatives, the multiple networks through which stakeholders (re)configure their influence, the range of contexts in which development for health is played out - all compound the complexity of this system. This paper maps out the characteristics of complex adaptive systems as they apply to global health governance, linking them to developments in the past two decades, and the multiple responses to these changes. Examining global health governance through the frame of complexity theory offers insight into the current dynamics of governance, and while providing a framework for making meaning of the whole, opens up ways of accessing this complexity through local points of engagement.

  17. Computer Simulations and Theoretical Studies of Complex Systems: from complex fluids to frustrated magnets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Eunsong

    Computer simulations are an integral part of research in modern condensed matter physics; they serve as a direct bridge between theory and experiment by systemactically applying a microscopic model to a collection of particles that effectively imitate a macroscopic system. In this thesis, we study two very differnt condensed systems, namely complex fluids and frustrated magnets, primarily by simulating classical dynamics of each system. In the first part of the thesis, we focus on ionic liquids (ILs) and polymers--the two complementary classes of materials that can be combined to provide various unique properties. The properties of polymers/ILs systems, such as conductivity, viscosity, and miscibility, can be fine tuned by choosing an appropriate combination of cations, anions, and polymers. However, designing a system that meets a specific need requires a concrete understanding of physics and chemistry that dictates a complex interplay between polymers and ionic liquids. In this regard, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is an efficient tool that provides a molecular level picture of such complex systems. We study the behavior of Poly (ethylene oxide) (PEO) and the imidazolium based ionic liquids, using MD simulations and statistical mechanics. We also discuss our efforts to develop reliable and efficient classical force-fields for PEO and the ionic liquids. The second part is devoted to studies on geometrically frustrated magnets. In particular, a microscopic model, which gives rise to an incommensurate spiral magnetic ordering observed in a pyrochlore antiferromagnet is investigated. The validation of the model is made via a comparison of the spin-wave spectra with the neutron scattering data. Since the standard Holstein-Primakoff method is difficult to employ in such a complex ground state structure with a large unit cell, we carry out classical spin dynamics simulations to compute spin-wave spectra directly from the Fourier transform of spin trajectories. We

  18. Complexity VIII. Ontology of closure in complex systems: The C* hypothesis and the O° notation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandler, Jerry LR

    1999-03-01

    Closure is a common characteristic of mathematical, natural and socio-cultural systems. Whether one is describing a graph, a molecule, a cell, a human, or a nation state, closure is implicitly understood. An objective of this paper is to continue a construction of a systematic framework for closure which is sufficient for future quantitative transdisciplinary investigations. A further objective is to extend the Birkhoff-von Neumann criterion for quantum systems to complex natural objects. The C* hypothesis is being constructed to be consistent with algebraic category theory (Ehresmann and Vanbremeersch, 1987, 1997, Chandler, 1990, 1991, Chandler, Ehresmann and Vanbremeersch, 1996). Five aspects of closure will be used to construct a framework for categories of complex systems: 1. Truth functions in mathematics and the natural sciences 2. Systematic descriptions in the mks and O° notations 3. Organizational structures in hierarchical scientific languages 4. Transitive organizational pathways in the causal structures of complex behaviors 5. Composing additive, multiplicative and exponential operations in complex systems Truth functions can be formal or objective or subjective, depending on the complexity of the system and on our capability to represent the fine structure of the system symbolically, observationally or descriptively. "Complete" material representations of the fine structure of a system may allow truth functions to be created over sets of one to one correspondences. Less complete descriptions can support less stringent truth functions based on coherence or subjective judgments. The role of human values in creating and perpetuating truth functions can be placed in context of the degree of fine structure in the system's description. The organization of complex systems are hypothesized to be categorizable into degrees relative to one another, thereby creating an ordering relationship. This ordering relationship is denoted by the symbols: O°1, O°2,O°3

  19. [The dimension of the paradigm of complexity in health systems].

    PubMed

    Fajardo-Ortiz, Guillermo; Fernández-Ortega, Miguel Ángel; Ortiz-Montalvo, Armando; Olivares-Santos, Roberto Antonio

    2015-01-01

    This article presents elements to better understand health systems from the complety paradigm, innovative perspective that offers other ways in the conception of the scientific knowledge prevalent away from linear, characterized by the arise of emerging dissociative and behaviors, based on the intra and trans-disciplinarity concepts such knowledges explain and understand in a different way what happens in the health systems with a view to efficiency and effectiveness. The complexity paradigm means another way of conceptualizing the knowledge, is different from the prevalent epistemology, is still under construction does not separate, not isolated, is not reductionist, or fixed, does not solve the problems, but gives other bases to know them and study them, is a different strategy, a perspective that has basis in the systems theory, informatics and cybernetics beyond traditional knowledge, the positive logics, the newtonian physics and symmetric mathematics, in which everything is centered and balanced, joint the "soft sciences and hard sciences", it has present the Social Determinants of Health and organizational culture. Under the complexity paradigm the health systems are identified with the following concepts: entropy, neguentropy, the thermodynamic second law, attractors, chaos theory, fractals, selfmanagement and self-organization, emerging behaviors, percolation, uncertainty, networks and robusteness; such expressions open new possibilities to improve the management and better understanding of the health systems, giving rise to consider health systems as complex adaptive systems.

  20. Elucidating the regulation of complex signalling systems in plant cells.

    PubMed

    Liu, Junli; Lindsey, Keith; Hussey, Patrick J

    2014-02-01

    The pollen tube represents a model system for the study of tip growth, and the root provides a valuable system to study gene and signalling networks in plants. In the present article, using the two systems as examples, we discuss how to elucidate the regulation of complex signalling systems in plant cells. First, we discuss how hormones and related genes in plant root development form a complex interacting network, and their activities are interdependent. Therefore their roles in root development must be analysed as an integrated system, and elucidation of the regulation of each component requires the adaptation of a novel modelling methodology: regulation analysis. Secondly, hydrodynamics, cell wall and ion dynamics are all important properties that regulate plant cell growth. We discuss how regulation analysis can be applied to study the regulation of hydrodynamics, cell wall and ion dynamics, using pollen tube growth as a model system. Finally, we discuss future prospects for elucidating the regulation of complex signalling systems in plant cells.

  1. Untangling complex dynamical systems via derivative-variable correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levnaji, Zoran; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2014-05-01

    Inferring the internal interaction patterns of a complex dynamical system is a challenging problem. Traditional methods often rely on examining the correlations among the dynamical units. However, in systems such as transcription networks, one unit's variable is also correlated with the rate of change of another unit's variable. Inspired by this, we introduce the concept of derivative-variable correlation, and use it to design a new method of reconstructing complex systems (networks) from dynamical time series. Using a tunable observable as a parameter, the reconstruction of any system with known interaction functions is formulated via a simple matrix equation. We suggest a procedure aimed at optimizing the reconstruction from the time series of length comparable to the characteristic dynamical time scale. Our method also provides a reliable precision estimate. We illustrate the method's implementation via elementary dynamical models, and demonstrate its robustness to both model error and observation error.

  2. LaserCom System Architecture With Reduced Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lesh, James R. (Inventor); Chen, Chien-Chung (Inventor); Ansari, Homa-Yoon (Inventor)

    1996-01-01

    Spatial acquisition and precision beam pointing functions are critical to spaceborne laser communication systems. In the present invention a single high bandwidth CCD detector is used to perform both spatial acquisition and tracking functions. Compared to previous lasercom hardware design, the array tracking concept offers reduced system complexity by reducing the number of optical elements in the design. Specifically, the design requires only one detector and one beam steering mechanism. It also provides means to optically close the point-ahead control loop. The technology required for high bandwidth array tracking was examined and shown to be consistent with current state of the art. The single detector design can lead to a significantly reduced system complexity and a lower system cost.

  3. On the sensitivity of complex, internally coupled systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sobieszczanskisobieski, Jaroslaw

    1988-01-01

    A method is presented for computing sensitivity derivatives with respect to independent (input) variables for complex, internally coupled systems, while avoiding the cost and inaccuracy of finite differencing performed on the entire system analysis. The method entails two alternative algorithms: the first is based on the classical implicit function theorem formulated on residuals of governing equations, and the second develops the system sensitivity equations in a new form using the partial (local) sensitivity derivatives of the output with respect to the input of each part of the system. A few application examples are presented to illustrate the discussion.

  4. Complex-compound low-temperature TES system

    SciTech Connect

    Rockenfeller, U.

    1989-03-01

    Development of a complex-compound low-temperature TES system is described herein from basic chemical principles through current bench scale system development. Important application engineering issues and an economic outlook are addressed as well. The system described uses adsorption reactions between solid metal inorganic salts and ammonia refrigerant. It is the coordinative nature of these reactions that allows for storage of ammonia refrigerant within the solid salt crystals that function as a chemical compressor during on peak periods (substituting the mechanical compressor) and release ammonia during off peak periods while a mechanical vapor compression system provides the necessary reactor pressure and heat.

  5. Systemic Risk and Complex Systems: A Graph-Theory Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lautier, Delphine; Raynaud, Franck

    This chapter summarizes several empirical studies in finance, undertaken through the prism of the graph theory. In these studies, we built graphs in order to investigate integration and systemic risk in derivative markets. Several classes of underlying assets (i.e. energy products, metals, financial assets, agricultural products) are considered, on a twelve-year period. In such a high dimensional analysis, the graph theory enables us to understand the dynamic behavior of our price system. The dimension of the fully connected graph being high, we rely on a specific type of graphs: Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs). Such a tree is especially interesting for the study of systemic risk: it can be assimilated into the shortest and most probable path for the propagation of a price shock. We first examine the topology of the MSTs. Then, given the time dependency of our correlation-based graphs, we study their evolution over time and their stability.

  6. Inverse Optimal Pinning Control for Complex Networks of Chaotic Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, Edgar N.; Rodriguez, David I.

    In this paper, a control strategy based on the inverse optimal control approach is applied for pinning weighted complex networks with chaotic systems at their nodes; additionally, a cost functional is minimized. This control strategy does not require to have the same coupling strength for all node connections.

  7. EVALUATING DISCONTINUITIES IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS: TOWARD QUANTITATIVE MEASURE OF RESILIENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The textural discontinuity hypothesis (TDH) is based on the observation that animal body mass distributions exhibit discontinuities that may reflect the texture of the landscape available for exploitation. This idea has been extended to other complex systems, hinting that the ide...

  8. Complex Adaptive Systems as Metaphors for Organizational Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmberg, Klara

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of complex adaptive systems (CAS) from the perspective of managing organizations, to describe and explore the management principles in a case study of an organization with unconventional ways of management and to present a tentative model for managing organizations as CAS--system…

  9. Inclusive Education as Complex Process and Challenge for School System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al-Khamisy, Danuta

    2015-01-01

    Education may be considered as a number of processes, actions and effects affecting human being, as the state or level of the results of these processes or as the modification of the functions, institutions and social practices roles, which in the result of inclusion become new, integrated system. Thus this is very complex process. Nowadays the…

  10. Mining Students' Inquiry Actions for Understanding of Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Sharona T.; Wilensky, Uri

    2011-01-01

    This study lies at an intersection between advancing educational data mining methods for detecting students' knowledge-in-action and the broader question of how conceptual and mathematical forms of knowing interact in exploring complex chemical systems. More specifically, it investigates students' inquiry actions in three computer-based models of…

  11. Computational Complexity, Efficiency and Accountability in Large Scale Teleprocessing Systems.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-12-01

    COMPLEXITY, EFFICIENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY IN LARGE SCALE TELEPROCESSING SYSTEMS DAAG29-78-C-0036 STANFORD UNIVERSITY JOHN T. GILL MARTIN E. BELLMAN...solve but easy to check. Ve have also suggested howy sucb random tapes can be simulated by determin- istically generating "pseudorandom" numbers by a

  12. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  13. "Unhelpfully Complex and Exceedingly Opaque": Australia's School Funding System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowling, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Australia's system of school funding is notoriously complex and difficult to understand. This article shines some light on this issue by describing clearly the processes of school funding that currently exist in Australia. It describes the steps taken by federal and state governments to provide over $30 billion each year to government and…

  14. The German and English Auxiliary Systems and Complex Predicates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Terrence C.

    1976-01-01

    This paper explores the auxiliary systems of English and German and the use of the auxiliary verbs in various complex predicate structures in the two languages. It aims at alleviating two types of problems in learning German involving governing patterns and ordering problems in clauses. (CHK)

  15. The Transfer of Abstract Principles Governing Complex Adaptive Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstone, Robert L.; Sakamoto, Yasuaki

    2003-01-01

    Four experiments explored participants' understanding of the abstract principles governing computer simulations of complex adaptive systems. Experiments 1, 2, and 3 showed better transfer of abstract principles across simulations that were relatively dissimilar, and that this effect was due to participants who performed relatively poorly on the…

  16. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab; Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  17. The Internet As a Large-Scale Complex System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Kihong; Willinger, Walter

    2005-06-01

    The Internet may be viewed as a "complex system" with diverse features and many components that can give rise to unexpected emergent phenomena, revealing much about its own engineering. This book brings together chapter contributions from a workshop held at the Santa Fe Institute in March 2001. This volume captures a snapshot of some features of the Internet that may be fruitfully approached using a complex systems perspective, meaning using interdisciplinary tools and methods to tackle the subject area. The Internet penetrates the socioeconomic fabric of everyday life; a broader and deeper grasp of the Internet may be needed to meet the challenges facing the future. The resulting empirical data have already proven to be invaluable for gaining novel insights into the network's spatio-temporal dynamics, and can be expected to become even more important when tryin to explain the Internet's complex and emergent behavior in terms of elementary networking-based mechanisms. The discoveries of fractal or self-similar network traffic traces, power-law behavior in network topology and World Wide Web connectivity are instances of unsuspected, emergent system traits. Another important factor at the heart of fair, efficient, and stable sharing of network resources is user behavior. Network systems, when habited by selfish or greedy users, take on the traits of a noncooperative multi-party game, and their stability and efficiency are integral to understanding the overall system and its dynamics. Lastly, fault-tolerance and robustness of large-scale network systems can exhibit spatial and temporal correlations whose effective analysis and management may benefit from rescaling techniques applied in certain physical and biological systems. The present book will bring together several of the leading workers involved in the analysis of complex systems with the future development of the Internet.

  18. Evaluating the Software Design of a Complex System of Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    Architecture ( LCA ) milestone conducted at the SoS level might be the answer. According to the Rational Unified Process, the LCA marks the conclusion of...an SoS is not merely a roll-up of its constituent systems, so it is that an SoS- level LCA is more than a roll-up of lower level LCA anchor points. A...for individual software packages and another for integrated builds. Although LCAs were conducted regularly at constituent systems levels , the focus

  19. Architectural Analysis of Complex Evolving Systems of Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lindvall, Mikael; Stratton, William C.; Sibol, Deane E.; Ray, Arnab; Ackemann, Chris; Yonkwa, Lyly; Ganesan, Dharma

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this collaborative project between FC-MD, APL, and GSFC and supported by NASA IV&V Software Assurance Research Program (SARP), was to develop a tool, Dynamic SAVE, or Dyn-SAVE for short, for analyzing architectures of systems of systems. The project team was comprised of the principal investigator (PI) from FC-MD and four other FC-MD scientists (part time) and several FC-MD students (full time), as well as, two APL software architects (part time), and one NASA POC (part time). The PI and FC-MD scientists together with APL architects were responsible for requirements analysis, and for applying and evaluating the Dyn-SAVE tool and method. The PI and a group of FC-MD scientists were responsible for improving the method and conducting outreach activities, while another group of FC-MD scientists were responsible for development and improvement of the tool. Oversight and reporting was conducted by the PI and NASA POC. The project team produced many results including several prototypes of the Dyn-SAVE tool and method, several case studies documenting how the tool and method was applied to APL s software systems, and several published papers in highly respected conferences and journals. Dyn-SAVE as developed and enhanced throughout this research period, is a software tool intended for software developers and architects, software integration testers, and persons who need to analyze software systems from the point of view of how it communicates with other systems. Using the tool, the user specifies the planned communication behavior of the system modeled as a sequence diagram. The user then captures and imports the actual communication behavior of the system, which is then converted and visualized as a sequence diagram by Dyn-SAVE. After mapping the planned to the actual and specifying parameter and timing constraints, Dyn-SAVE detects and highlights deviations between the planned and the actual behavior. Requirements based on the need to analyze two inter-system

  20. Superstorm Sweeps Over England

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    A large, low-pressure system swept across the United Kingdom on Monday, spawning at least three tornadoes there before continuing on toward Scandanavia. This image, acquired on October 30, by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), shows the storm after it brought torrential rain and hurricane-strength winds to Britain in perhaps the worst storm to hit the country since 1987. High seas nearing 23 feet (7 meters) and winds gusting up to 109 mph wreaked havoc on sea traffic, causing delays or cancelled ferries across the English Channel and necessitating the rescue of crews from stranded ships, including a Norwegian freighter and an Italian cargo ship. Image provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

  1. Complex multidisciplinary system composition for aerospace vehicle conceptual design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, Lex

    Although, there exists a vast amount of work concerning the analysis, design, integration of aerospace vehicle systems, there is no standard for how this data and knowledge should be combined in order to create a synthesis system. Each institution creating a synthesis system has in house vehicle and hardware components they are attempting to model and proprietary methods with which to model them. This leads to the fact that synthesis systems begin as one-off creations meant to answer a specific problem. As the scope of the synthesis system grows to encompass more and more problems, so does its size and complexity; in order for a single synthesis system to answer multiple questions the number of methods and method interface must increase. As a means to curtail the requirement that the increase of an aircraft synthesis systems capability leads to an increase in its size and complexity, this research effort focuses on the idea that each problem in aerospace requires its own analysis framework. By focusing on the creation of a methodology which centers on the matching of an analysis framework towards the problem being solved, the complexity of the analysis framework is decoupled from the complexity of the system that creates it. The derived methodology allows for the composition of complex multi-disciplinary systems (CMDS) through the automatic creation and implementation of system and disciplinary method interfaces. The CMDS Composition process follows a four step methodology meant to take a problem definition and progress towards the creation of an analysis framework meant to answer said problem. The unique implementation of the CMDS Composition process take user selected disciplinary analysis methods and automatically integrates them, together in order to create a syntactically composable analysis framework. As a means of assessing the validity of the CMDS Composition process a prototype system (AVDDBMS) has been developed. AVD DBMS has been used to model the

  2. Statistical tools for prognostics and health management of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, David H; Huzurbazar, Aparna V; Anderson - Cook, Christine M

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is increasingly important for understanding and managing today's complex systems. These systems are typically mission- or safety-critical, expensive to replace, and operate in environments where reliability and cost-effectiveness are a priority. We present background on PHM and a suite of applicable statistical tools and methods. Our primary focus is on predicting future states of the system (e.g., the probability of being operational at a future time, or the expected remaining system life) using heterogeneous data from a variety of sources. We discuss component reliability models incorporating physical understanding, condition measurements from sensors, and environmental covariates; system reliability models that allow prediction of system failure time distributions from component failure models; and the use of Bayesian techniques to incorporate expert judgments into component and system models.

  3. Surveillance of sexually transmitted infections in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Hughes, G; Paine, T; Thomas, D

    2001-05-01

    Surveillance of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in England and Wales has, in the past, relied principally on aggregated statistical data submitted by all genitourinary medicine clinics to the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, supplemented by various laboratory reporting systems. Although these systems provide comparatively robust surveillance data, they do not provide sufficient information on risk factors to target STI control and prevention programmes appropriately. Over recent years, substantial rises in STIs, the emergence of numerous outbreaks of STIs, and changes in gonococcal resistance patterns have necessitated the introduction of more sophisticated surveillance mechanisms. This article describes current STI surveillance systems in England and Wales, including new systems that have recently been introduced or are currently being developed to meet the need for enhanced STI surveillance data.

  4. Work-Facilitating Information Visualization Techniques for Complex Wastewater Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebert, Achim; Einsfeld, Katja

    The design and the operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) have become increasingly complex. This complexity is due to increased requirements concerning process technology, technical, environmental, economical, and occupational safety aspects. The plant operator has access not only to some timeworn filers and measured parameters but also to numerous on-line and off-line parameters that characterize the current state of the plant in detail. Moreover, expert databases and specific support pages of plant manufactures are accessible through the World Wide Web. Thus, the operator is overwhelmed with predominantly unstructured data.

  5. Cognitive robotic system for learning of complex visual stimuli

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potapov, A. S.; Rozhkov, A. S.

    2013-05-01

    The problem of learning of complex visual stimuli in cognitive robotics is considered. These stimuli should be selected on the base of rules supporting arbitrary comparisons of stimulus features with features of other salient objects (context). New perceptual knowledge representation based on the predicate logic is implemented to express such rules. Computable predicates are provided by low-level vision system. The rules are constructed using genetic algorithms on the base of a set of examples obtained by a robot during consequent trials. Dependence between the number of necessary trials and rule complexity is studied.

  6. Complex systems and the technology of variability analysis

    PubMed Central

    Seely, Andrew JE; Macklem, Peter T

    2004-01-01

    Characteristic patterns of variation over time, namely rhythms, represent a defining feature of complex systems, one that is synonymous with life. Despite the intrinsic dynamic, interdependent and nonlinear relationships of their parts, complex biological systems exhibit robust systemic stability. Applied to critical care, it is the systemic properties of the host response to a physiological insult that manifest as health or illness and determine outcome in our patients. Variability analysis provides a novel technology with which to evaluate the overall properties of a complex system. This review highlights the means by which we scientifically measure variation, including analyses of overall variation (time domain analysis, frequency distribution, spectral power), frequency contribution (spectral analysis), scale invariant (fractal) behaviour (detrended fluctuation and power law analysis) and regularity (approximate and multiscale entropy). Each technique is presented with a definition, interpretation, clinical application, advantages, limitations and summary of its calculation. The ubiquitous association between altered variability and illness is highlighted, followed by an analysis of how variability analysis may significantly improve prognostication of severity of illness and guide therapeutic intervention in critically ill patients. PMID:15566580

  7. Topics in Complexity: From Physical to Life Science Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charry, Pedro David Manrique

    Complexity seeks to unwrap the mechanisms responsible for collective phenomena across the physical, biological, chemical, economic and social sciences. This thesis investigates real-world complex dynamical systems ranging from the quantum/natural domain to the social domain. The following novel understandings are developed concerning these systems' out-of-equilibrium and nonlinear behavior. Standard quantum techniques show divergent outcomes when a quantum system comprising more than one subunit is far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Abnormal photon inter-arrival times help fulfill the metabolic needs of a terrestrial photosynthetic bacterium. Spatial correlations within incident light can act as a driving mechanism for an organism's adaptation toward more ordered structures. The group dynamics of non-identical objects, whose assembly rules depend on mutual heterogeneity, yield rich transition dynamics between isolation and cohesion, with the cohesion regime reproducing a particular universal pattern commonly found in many real-world systems. Analyses of covert networks reveal collective gender superiority in the connectivity that provides benefits for system robustness and survival. Nodal migration in a network generates complex contagion profiles that lie beyond traditional approaches and yet resemble many modern-day outbreaks.

  8. Probabilistic Analysis Techniques Applied to Complex Spacecraft Power System Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

    2005-01-01

    Electric power system performance predictions are critical to spacecraft, such as the International Space Station (ISS), to ensure that sufficient power is available to support all the spacecraft s power needs. In the case of the ISS power system, analyses to date have been deterministic, meaning that each analysis produces a single-valued result for power capability because of the complexity and large size of the model. As a result, the deterministic ISS analyses did not account for the sensitivity of the power capability to uncertainties in model input variables. Over the last 10 years, the NASA Glenn Research Center has developed advanced, computationally fast, probabilistic analysis techniques and successfully applied them to large (thousands of nodes) complex structural analysis models. These same techniques were recently applied to large, complex ISS power system models. This new application enables probabilistic power analyses that account for input uncertainties and produce results that include variations caused by these uncertainties. Specifically, N&R Engineering, under contract to NASA, integrated these advanced probabilistic techniques with Glenn s internationally recognized ISS power system model, System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE).

  9. Formal Requirements-Based Programming for Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rash, James L.; Hinchey, Michael G.; Rouff, Christopher A.; Gracanin, Denis

    2005-01-01

    Computer science as a field has not yet produced a general method to mechanically transform complex computer system requirements into a provably equivalent implementation. Such a method would be one major step towards dealing with complexity in computing, yet it remains the elusive holy grail of system development. Currently available tools and methods that start with a formal model of a system and mechanically produce a provably equivalent implementation are valuable but not sufficient. The gap that such tools and methods leave unfilled is that the formal models cannot be proven to be equivalent to the system requirements as originated by the customer For the classes of complex systems whose behavior can be described as a finite (but significant) set of scenarios, we offer a method for mechanically transforming requirements (expressed in restricted natural language, or appropriate graphical notations) into a provably equivalent formal model that can be used as the basis for code generation and other transformations. While other techniques are available, this method is unique in offering full mathematical tractability while using notations and techniques that are well known and well trusted. We illustrate the application of the method to an example procedure from the Hubble Robotic Servicing Mission currently under study and preliminary formulation at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

  10. Pain and Surgery in England, circa 1620-circa 1740.

    PubMed

    Walker, Katherine A

    2015-04-01

    The scholarship on the discussion and role of pain in early modern English surgery is limited. Scholars have given little consideration to how surgeons described and comprehended pain in their patients' bodies in early modern England, including how these understandings connected to notions of the humours, nerves and sex difference. This article focuses on the attention that surgeons paid to pain in their published and manuscript casebooks and manuals available in English, circa 1620-circa 1740. Pain was an important component of surgery in early modern England, influencing diagnosis, treatment and technique. Surgeons portrayed a complex and multi-dimensional understanding of their patients' bodies in pain, which was further connected to their portrayals of their professional ability.

  11. Computer models of complex multiloop branched pipeline systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kudinov, I. V.; Kolesnikov, S. V.; Eremin, A. V.; Branfileva, A. N.

    2013-11-01

    This paper describes the principal theoretical concepts of the method used for constructing computer models of complex multiloop branched pipeline networks, and this method is based on the theory of graphs and two Kirchhoff's laws applied to electrical circuits. The models make it possible to calculate velocities, flow rates, and pressures of a fluid medium in any section of pipeline networks, when the latter are considered as single hydraulic systems. On the basis of multivariant calculations the reasons for existing problems can be identified, the least costly methods of their elimination can be proposed, and recommendations for planning the modernization of pipeline systems and construction of their new sections can be made. The results obtained can be applied to complex pipeline systems intended for various purposes (water pipelines, petroleum pipelines, etc.). The operability of the model has been verified on an example of designing a unified computer model of the heat network for centralized heat supply of the city of Samara.

  12. Complex Features in Lotka-Volterra Systems with Behavioral Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudio; Lacitignola, Deborah

    Lotka-Volterra systems have played a fundamental role for mathematical modelling in many branches of theoretical biology and proved to describe, at least qualitatively, the essential features of many phenomena, see for example Murray [Murray 2002]. Furthermore models of that kind have been considered successfully also in quite different and less mathematically formalized context: Goodwin' s model of economic growth cycles [Goodwin 1967] and urban dynamics [Dendrinos 1992] are only two of a number of examples. Such systems can certainly be defined as complex ones and in fact the aim of modelling was essentially to clarify mechanims rather than to provide actual precise simulations and predictions. With regards to complex systems, we recall that one of their main feature, no matter of the specific definition one has in mind, is adaptation, i. e. the ability to adjust.

  13. Control of complex dynamics and chaos in distributed parameter systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chakravarti, S.; Marek, M.; Ray, W.H.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses a methodology for controlling complex dynamics and chaos in distributed parameter systems. The reaction-diffusion system with Brusselator kinetics, where the torus-doubling or quasi-periodic (two characteristic incommensurate frequencies) route to chaos exists in a defined range of parameter values, is used as an example. Poincare maps are used for characterization of quasi-periodic and chaotic attractors. The dominant modes or topos, which are inherent properties of the system, are identified by means of the Singular Value Decomposition. Tested modal feedback control schemas based on identified dominant spatial modes confirm the possibility of stabilization of simple quasi-periodic trajectories in the complex quasi-periodic or chaotic spatiotemporal patterns.

  14. Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1997-01-01

    Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

  15. Structural limits for evolutive capacities in complex molecular systems.

    PubMed

    Bergareche, A M; Ostolaza, J F

    1990-01-01

    The possibilities of evolution for a system with and without a code of translation from nucleic acids into proteins are evaluated. Our interest is mainly centred on the enzymatic RNA case since this molecule has, at the same time, reproductive and functional properties. After scanning the evolutive capacities of the enzymatic RNAs, including the possibility to play the role of "synthetase" which would match nucleic acids with amino acids as a transition step towards a code, we will try to show that due to their own functional limitative factors, the matching system (code) is necessary. This would be the only way to transform the formal complexity--complexity which has not entered into action before the translation process--into functional information to drive the instructive self-reproductive process. Once this stage is reached, the system could evolve without a limit.

  16. A duality framework for stochastic optimal control of complex systems

    DOE PAGES

    Malikopoulos, Andreas A.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we address the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of interactive subsystems. We formulate a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems and provide a duality framework to prove that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion of the system. We provide the conditions of existence and a geometric interpretation of the solution. For practical situations having constraints consistent with those studied here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value when we seek to derivemore » online the optimal control policy in complex systems.« less

  17. Integrated Reconfigurable Intelligent Systems (IRIS) for Complex Naval Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-02-21

    ONR’s needs and for supporting the experiments that ASDL has planned for future tasks. Power distribution lines and piping networks are going to be...in Based on Com Object Chied Water System It simulates a cooling network consisting of pipes , pumps, valves and reservoirs, heat exchangers, etc...Parameters PIPE Simple pipe VPIPE Pipe with a valve SVC-1V Svc load with a valve SVC-2V Svc load with two valves PC Pump-chiller sub-net 14 q (»;3/i) AP

  18. A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gettings, M.E.; Bultman, M.W.; Fisher, F.S.

    2004-01-01

    For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized. The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,-1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios.

  19. 1. View, structures in Systems Integration Laboratory complex, looking northwest. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    1. View, structures in Systems Integration Laboratory complex, looking northwest. The twin gantry structure in the center is the Systems Integration Laboratory (T-28). To its immediate left in the foreground is a truck well, concrete retaining wall, piping, and stack associated with the oxidizer vault storage area. To the immediate right of T-28 is the concrete Signal Transfer Building (T-28A). At the extreme right is the Long-Term Hydrazine Silo (T-28E). - Air Force Plant PJKS, Systems Integration Laboratory, Waterton Canyon Road & Colorado Highway 121, Lakewood, Jefferson County, CO

  20. 2. View, structures in Systems Integration Laboratory complex, looking north. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    2. View, structures in Systems Integration Laboratory complex, looking north. The Components Test Laboratory (T-27) is located in the immediate foreground. Immediately uphill to the left of T-27 is the Boiler Chiller Plant (T-28H). To the left of T-28H is the Oxidizer Conditioning Structure (T-28D). Behind the T-28D is the Long-Term Oxidizer Silo (T-28B). The twin gantry structure at the left is the Systems Integration Laboratory (T-28). - Air Force Plant PJKS, Systems Integration Laboratory, Waterton Canyon Road & Colorado Highway 121, Lakewood, Jefferson County, CO

  1. Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) Facilities Sprinkler System Hydraulic Calculations

    SciTech Connect

    KERSTEN, J.K.

    2003-07-11

    The attached calculations demonstrate sprinkler system operational water requirements as determined by hydraulic analysis. Hydraulic calculations for the waste storage buildings of the Central Waste Complex (CWC), T Plant, and Waste Receiving and Packaging (WRAP) facility are based upon flow testing performed by Fire Protection Engineers from the Hanford Fire Marshal's office. The calculations received peer review and approval prior to release. The hydraulic analysis program HASS Computer Program' (under license number 1609051210) is used to perform all analyses contained in this document. Hydraulic calculations demonstrate sprinkler system operability based upon each individual system design and available water supply under the most restrictive conditions.

  2. A complexity classification of spin systems with an external field.

    PubMed

    Goldberg, Leslie Ann; Jerrum, Mark

    2015-10-27

    We study the computational complexity of approximating the partition function of a q-state spin system with an external field. There are just three possible levels of computational difficulty, depending on the interaction strengths between adjacent spins: (i) efficiently exactly computable, (ii) equivalent to the ferromagnetic Ising model, and (iii) equivalent to the antiferromagnetic Ising model. Thus, every nontrivial q-state spin system, irrespective of the number q of spins, is computationally equivalent to one of two fundamental two-state spin systems.

  3. The Complex Economic System of Supply Chain Financing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lili; Yan, Guangle

    Supply Chain Financing (SCF) refers to a series of innovative and complicated financial services based on supply chain. The SCF set-up is a complex system, where the supply chain management and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) financing services interpenetrate systematically. This paper establishes the organization structure of SCF System, and presents two financing models respectively, with or without the participation of the third-party logistic provider (3PL). Using Information Economics and Game Theory, the interrelationship among diverse economic sectors is analyzed, and the economic mechanism of development and existent for SCF system is demonstrated. New thoughts and approaches to solve SMEs financing problem are given.

  4. Invariant Multiparameter Sensitivity to Characterize Dynamical Systems on Complex Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujiwara, Kenzaburo; Tanaka, Takuma; Nakamura, Kiyohiko

    2015-02-01

    The behavior of systems is determined by the parameters. Because we seldom know the detailed structure of a system, metrics of parameter sensitivity should be independent of how we model the system. We formulate a new parameter sensitivity metric, which we refer to as "invariant multiparameter sensitivity" (IMPS) because it gives the same result for a class of equivalent models of a system. To investigate the property of IMPS, we firstly apply IMPS to resistor circuits and linear dynamical systems. To examine the dependence of IMPS on network structures, we secondly apply IMPS to nonlinear systems on complex networks. We find that the IMPS of networks of phase oscillators is essentially independent of the number of oscillators. We examine the network-structure dependence of IMPS using a simplified solvable model.

  5. New England's Vital Resource: The Labor Force.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoy, John C., Ed.; Bernstein, Melvin H., Ed.

    A collection of analyses and projections is presented that explores the challenges posed by a rapidly evolving economy and the critical issue of manpower policy facing New England and the nation. New England was able to move from traditional industry to high technology because its colleges and universities supplied basic research and trained…

  6. Leading Indicator: New England's Higher Education Economy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortenson, Thomas G.

    2003-01-01

    In few places is higher education so ingrained in a region's economic vitality as in New England. Students from all over the world enroll in New England's institutions of learning and research, bringing resources to finance their education and living expenses that reverberate throughout local and state economies. Human capital-based industries…

  7. New England Takes Stock of Midterm Elections

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harney, John O.; Morwick, Carolyn

    2014-01-01

    The recent midterm elections brought New England two new governors. Rhode Island elected its first woman chief executive in Gina Raimondo (D). Massachusetts elected Charlie Baker (R), a former Harvard Pilgrim CEO and official in the Weld and Cellucci administrations. Otherwise, the New England corner offices cautiously welcomed back incumbents:…

  8. Provision for Adult Illiteracy in England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haviland, R. Michael

    The study is intended to begin the process of collecting, coordinating, and disseminating basic information about adult literacy projects and classes in England. Spanning the years 1950 to the present, the data are based on questionnaires sent to all listed adult literacy projects in England. Following a review of the history, background, and…

  9. Complex Morphological Variability in Complex Evaporitic Systems: Thermal Spring Snails from the Chihuahuan Desert, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Carol M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.

    2003-11-01

    Thermal springs in evaporitic environments provide a unique biological laboratory in which to study natural selection and evolutionary diversification. These isolated systems may be an analogue for conditions in early Earth or Mars history. One modern example of such a system can be found in the Chihuahuan Desert of north-central Mexico. The Cuatro Cienegas basin hosts a series of thermal springs that form a complex of aquatic ecosystems under a range of environmental conditions. Using landmark-based morphometric techniques, we have quantified an unusually high level of morphological variability in the endemic gastropod Mexipyrgus from Cuatro Cienegas. The differentiation is seen both within and between hydrological systems. Our results suggest that this type of environmental system is capable of producing and maintaining a high level of morphological diversity on small spatial scales, and thus should be a target for future astrobiological research.

  10. Representing the Complexity of Engineering Systems: A Multidisciplinary Perceptual Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motyka, Matt; Maier, Jonathan R. A.; Fadel, Georges M.

    The natural evolution of design leads to the creation of devices that are increasingly complex. From the invention of the wheel to the use of the wheel in the landing gear of a spacecraft, new technology often builds upon or further develops existing products. As devices become more complex, so does the process of designing them. In order to meet consumer demands, design requires the integration of technology from multiple disciplines. This can lead to the formation of intricate interdependencies between components and systems within the device. These interdependencies may include material, geometric, dynamic, pneumatic, vibration, acoustical, thermal, electrical, and chemical considerations. Because of their complex nature, the interdependencies within a device are not always apparent, and may easily be overlooked by inexperienced designers.

  11. Decision support systems and methods for complex networks

    DOEpatents

    Huang, Zhenyu [Richland, WA; Wong, Pak Chung [Richland, WA; Ma, Jian [Richland, WA; Mackey, Patrick S [Richland, WA; Chen, Yousu [Richland, WA; Schneider, Kevin P [Seattle, WA

    2012-02-28

    Methods and systems for automated decision support in analyzing operation data from a complex network. Embodiments of the present invention utilize these algorithms and techniques not only to characterize the past and present condition of a complex network, but also to predict future conditions to help operators anticipate deteriorating and/or problem situations. In particular, embodiments of the present invention characterize network conditions from operation data using a state estimator. Contingency scenarios can then be generated based on those network conditions. For at least a portion of all of the contingency scenarios, risk indices are determined that describe the potential impact of each of those scenarios. Contingency scenarios with risk indices are presented visually as graphical representations in the context of a visual representation of the complex network. Analysis of the historical risk indices based on the graphical representations can then provide trends that allow for prediction of future network conditions.

  12. High Dynamic Range Complex Impedance Measurement System for Petrophysical Usage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, R.; He, X.; Yao, H.; Tan, S.; Shi, H.; Shen, R.; Yan, C.; Zeng, P.; He, L.; Qiao, N.; Xi, F.; Zhang, H.; Xie, J.

    2015-12-01

    Spectral induced polarization method (SIP) or complex resistivity method is increasing its application in metalliferous ore exploration, hydrocarbon exploration, underground water exploration, monitoring of environment pollution, and the evaluation of environment remediation. And the measurement of complex resistivity or complex impedance of rock/ore sample and polluted water plays a fundamental role in improving the application effect of SIP and the application scope of SIP. However, current instruments can't guaranty the accuracy of measurement when the resistance of sample is less than 10Ω or great than 100kΩ. A lot of samples, such as liquid, polluted sea water, igneous rock, limestone, and sandstone, can't be measured with reliable complex resistivity result. Therefore, this problem projects a shadow in the basic research and application research of SIP. We design a high precision measurement system from the study of measurement principle, sample holder, and measurement instrument. We design input buffers in a single board. We adopt operation amplifier AD549 in this system because of its ultra-high input impedance and ultra-low current noise. This buffer is good in acquiring potential signal across high impedance sample. By analyzing the sources of measurement error and errors generated by the measurement system, we propose a correction method to remove the error in order to achieve high quality complex impedance measurement for rock and ore samples. This measurement system can improve the measurement range of the complex impedance to 0.1 Ω ~ 10 GΩ with amplitude error less than 0.1% and phase error less than 0.1mrad when frequency ranges as 0.01 Hz ~ 1 kHz. We tested our system on resistors with resistance as 0.1Ω ~ 10 GΩ in frequency range as 1 Hz ~ 1000 Hz, and the measurement error is less than 0.1 mrad. We also compared the result with LCR bridge and SCIP, we can find that the bridge's measuring range only reaches 100 MΩ, SCIP's measuring range

  13. [The healthcare system and the complexity of social work].

    PubMed

    Kucharska, Ewa

    2012-01-01

    Due to ageing of populations, the number of persons older than 65 years will increase by 70% by 2050. At the same time the octogenarian group will grow by 170%. About half of people above 70 years develop a physical handicap of varied degree. Among the elderly, about 1.5 million have diminished mobility with the number of persons permanently bedridden and in need of an on-site care exceeds 120,000. The most important problems of old age include loneliness, disease, handicap, poverty and perceived lack usefulness. The situation of the elderly is complex and influenced by such factors as worse health, decay of intergenerational traditions, cultural change, bad living conditions and worsening of social status. Among the studied elderly, almost 30% suffer from an often unrecognised and untreated depression, and similar percentage from cognitive impairment which often implies constant care. Almost half of the elderly have poorly corrected visual problems. The apalling 1.3% of them had lost hearing. The basic citeria of effectiveness of a health care system are its availability, complexity of coverage, continuity of care, efficacy and quality, opportunity of adaptation of both caregiver and the client and the flexibility and adaptiveness of the system itself. Due to the peculiarities of ageing, older persons have special care-related needs. In the efect the system should be adapded to their needs and not vice-versa. The health care system in Poland has long-since been criticised for its inefficacy especially towards its elderly clients. It offers disintegrated, dispersed and incoherent services. The system does not fulfill the standards of geriatric approach such as universality, quality, availability and complexity of coverage of complex needs of the elderly person.

  14. Health economic evaluation in England.

    PubMed

    Raftery, James

    2014-01-01

    The 2010 National Health Service Constitution for England specified rights and responsibilities, including health economic evaluation for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisations. The National Screening Committee and the Health Protection Agency also provide advice to the Government based on health economic evaluation. Each agency largely follows the methods specified by NICE. To distinguish the methods from neoclassical economics they have been termed "extra-welfarist". Key differences include measurement and valuation of both benefits (QALYs) and costs (healthcare related). Policy on discounting has also changed over time and by agency. The debate over having NICE's methods align more closely with neoclassical economics has been prominent in the ongoing development of "value based pricing". The political unacceptability of some decisions has led to special funding for technologies not recommended by NICE. These include the 2002 Multiple Sclerosis Risk Sharing Scheme and the 2010 Cancer Drugs Fund as well as special arrangements for technologies linked to the end of life and for innovation. Since 2009 Patient Access Schemes have made price reductions possible which sometimes enables drugs to meet NICE's cost-effectiveness thresholds. As a result, the National Health Service in England has denied few technologies on grounds of cost-effectiveness.

  15. Complex organics in space from Solar System to distant galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwok, Sun

    2016-02-01

    Recent observational and experimental evidence for the presence of complex organics in space is reviewed. Remote astronomical observations have detected ˜ 200 gas-phased molecules through their rotational and vibrational transitions. Many classes of organic molecules are represented in this list, including some precursors to biological molecules. A number of unidentified spectral phenomena observed in the interstellar medium are likely to have originated from complex organics. The observations of these features in distant galaxies suggests that organic synthesis had already taken place during the early epochs of the Universe. In the Solar System, almost all biologically relevant molecules can be found in the soluble component of carbonaceous meteorites. Complex organics of mixed aromatic and aliphatic structures are present in the insoluble component of meteorites. Hydrocarbons cover much of the surface of the planetary satellite Titan and complex organics are found in comets and interplanetary dust particles. The possibility that the early Solar System, or even the early Earth, have been enriched by interstellar organics is discussed.

  16. Substrate mediates consumer control of salt marsh cordgrass on Cape Cod, New England.

    PubMed

    Bertness, Mark D; Holdredge, Christine; Altieri, Andrew H

    2009-08-01

    Cordgrass die-offs in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA, salt marshes have challenged the view that the primary production of New England salt marshes is controlled by physical factors. These die-offs have increased dramatically over the last decade and are caused by the common herbivorous marsh crab Sesarma reticulatum, but other factors that control crab impacts remain unclear. We examined the influence of plant nutrient supply and disturbances on Sesarma herbivory by fertilizing plots and creating experimental disturbances, since previous studies have revealed that they mediate the intensity of herbivory in other Western Atlantic marshes. Neither nutrient enrichment nor experimental disturbances affected crab grazing intensity despite their strong effects in other marsh systems. Within and among Cape Cod salt marshes, however, Sesarma burrows are concentrated on peat substrate. Surveys of 10 Cape Cod marshes revealed that burrow density, depth, and complexity are all much higher on peat than on sand or mud substrate, and paralleling these patterns, crab abundance, herbivore pressure, and the expansion of die-off areas are markedly higher on peat than on other substrates. Complementing work hypothesizing that predator release is triggering increased crab herbivory in Cape Cod marshes, these results suggest that cordgrass die-offs are constrained to the peat substrate commonly found on the leading edge of marshes and that the vulnerability of New England salt marshes to crab herbivory and future die-offs may be predictable.

  17. People at the centre of complex adaptive health systems reform.

    PubMed

    Sturmberg, Joachim P; O'Halloran, Diana M; Martin, Carmel M

    2010-10-18

    Health systems are increasingly recognised to be complex adaptive systems (CASs), functionally characterised by their continuing and dynamic adaptation in response to core system drivers, or attractors. The core driver for our health system (and for the health reform strategies intended to achieve it) should clearly be the improvement of people's health - the personal experience of health, regardless of organic abnormalities; we contend that a patient-centred health system requires flexible localised decision making and resource use. The prevailing trend is to use disease protocols, financial management strategies and centralised control of siloed programs to manage our health system. This strategy is suggested to be fatally flawed, as: people's health and health experience as core system drivers are inevitably pre-empted by centralised and standardised strategies; the context specificity of personal experience and the capacity of local systems are overlooked; and in line with CAS patterns and characteristics, these strategies will lead to "unintended" consequences on all parts of the system. In Australia, there is still the time and opportunity for health system redesign that truly places people and their health at the core of the system.

  18. Mathematical and Computational Modeling in Complex Biological Systems

    PubMed Central

    Li, Wenyang; Zhu, Xiaoliang

    2017-01-01

    The biological process and molecular functions involved in the cancer progression remain difficult to understand for biologists and clinical doctors. Recent developments in high-throughput technologies urge the systems biology to achieve more precise models for complex diseases. Computational and mathematical models are gradually being used to help us understand the omics data produced by high-throughput experimental techniques. The use of computational models in systems biology allows us to explore the pathogenesis of complex diseases, improve our understanding of the latent molecular mechanisms, and promote treatment strategy optimization and new drug discovery. Currently, it is urgent to bridge the gap between the developments of high-throughput technologies and systemic modeling of the biological process in cancer research. In this review, we firstly studied several typical mathematical modeling approaches of biological systems in different scales and deeply analyzed their characteristics, advantages, applications, and limitations. Next, three potential research directions in systems modeling were summarized. To conclude, this review provides an update of important solutions using computational modeling approaches in systems biology. PMID:28386558

  19. Prognosis of remaining useful life for complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Hines, J. W.; Usynin, A.; Urmanov, A.

    2006-07-01

    There has been a growing interest in extending conventional maintenance strategies, such as corrective and predictive maintenance, towards the implementations that would allow forecasting of system degradation through a prognostic procedure. The recent progress in sensor and computer technologies employed in complex engineering systems facilitates the integration of model-based and data-driven diagnostics and prognostics leading to condition-based maintenance and extended availability of equipment. This paper describes data-driven models and methods aimed at performing the tasks constituting the diagnostic/prognostic framework. The proposed models and methods allow performing Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) routines over a fleet of equipment populating complex engineering systems. Although several approaches to PHM implementation have been categorized in recently published literature, this paper focuses on PHM techniques associated with observing features related to anomalous system behavior. Observed anomalous patterns in the system behavior are considered to be precursors of impending failures. Measurements taken on the observed deviations are used to deduce a quantitative estimate of how long the system will stay within its specification-defined operational ranges. (authors)

  20. Carbohydrase Systems of Saccharophagus degradans Degrading Marine Complex Polysaccharides

    PubMed Central

    Hutcheson, Steven W.; Zhang, Haitao; Suvorov, Maxim

    2011-01-01

    Saccharophagus degradans 2–40 is a γ-subgroup proteobacterium capable of using many of the complex polysaccharides found in the marine environment for growth. To utilize these complex polysaccharides, this bacterium produces a plethora of carbohydrases dedicated to the processing of a carbohydrate class. Aiding in the identification of the contributing genes and enzymes is the known genome sequence for this bacterium. This review catalogs the genes and enzymes of the S. degradans genome that are likely to function in the systems for the utilization of agar, alginate, α- and β-glucans, chitin, mannans, pectins, and xylans and discusses the cell biology and genetics of each system as it functions to transfer carbon back to the bacterium. PMID:21731555

  1. Loschmidt echo and time reversal in complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Goussev, Arseni; Jalabert, Rodolfo A.; Pastawski, Horacio M.; Wisniacki, Diego A.

    2016-01-01

    Echoes are ubiquitous phenomena in several branches of physics, ranging from acoustics, optics, condensed matter and cold atoms to geophysics. They are at the base of a number of very useful experimental techniques, such as nuclear magnetic resonance, photon echo and time-reversal mirrors. Particularly interesting physical effects are obtained when the echo studies are performed on complex systems, either classically chaotic, disordered or many-body. Consequently, the term Loschmidt echo has been coined to designate and quantify the revival occurring when an imperfect time-reversal procedure is applied to a complex quantum system, or equivalently to characterize the stability of quantum evolution in the presence of perturbations. Here, we present the articles which discuss the work that has shaped the field in the past few years. PMID:27140977

  2. A complex network-based importance measure for mechatronics systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yanhui; Bi, Lifeng; Lin, Shuai; Li, Man; Shi, Hao

    2017-01-01

    In view of the negative impact of functional dependency, this paper attempts to provide an alternative importance measure called Improved-PageRank (IPR) for measuring the importance of components in mechatronics systems. IPR is a meaningful extension of the centrality measures in complex network, which considers usage reliability of components and functional dependency between components to increase importance measures usefulness. Our work makes two important contributions. First, this paper integrates the literature of mechatronic architecture and complex networks theory to define component network. Second, based on the notion of component network, a meaningful IPR is brought into the identifying of important components. In addition, the IPR component importance measures, and an algorithm to perform stochastic ordering of components due to the time-varying nature of usage reliability of components and functional dependency between components, are illustrated with a component network of bogie system that consists of 27 components.

  3. Complex adaptive systems and game theory: An unlikely union

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hadzikadic, M.; Carmichael, T.; Curtin, C.

    2010-01-01

    A Complex Adaptive System is a collection of autonomous, heterogeneous agents, whose behavior is defined with a limited number of rules. A Game Theory is a mathematical construct that assumes a small number of rational players who have a limited number of actions or strategies available to them. The CAS method has the potential to alleviate some of the shortcomings of GT. On the other hand, CAS researchers are always looking for a realistic way to define interactions among agents. GT offers an attractive option for defining the rules of such interactions in a way that is both potentially consistent with observed real-world behavior and subject to mathematical interpretation. This article reports on the results of an effort to build a CAS system that utilizes GT for determining the actions of individual agents. ?? 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 16,24-42, 2010.

  4. Convective instabilities in complex systems with partly free surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwabe, Dietrich

    2007-04-01

    Experiments and observations and some selected theoretical studies of thermocapillary instabilities are reviewed and presented together with new unpublished work. We start with simple idealized model systems of pure thermocapillarity and add to them more complex features like gravity forces, temperature gradients inclined to the free surface, static and dynamic surface deformations, solutocapillary effects and reacting or moving crystal boundaries (like during unidirectional solidification). Many effects and instabilities are demonstrated in video clips which can be downloaded from http://meyweb.physik.uni-giessen.de/1_Forschung/crystalgrowth/video/homepage.html. We try to point out the relationship of thermocapillary instabilities in the more complex systems with those in theoretical studies where the names of these instabilities have been coined.

  5. A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Saxe, Glenn N; Statnikov, Alexander; Fenyo, David; Ren, Jiwen; Li, Zhiguo; Prasad, Meera; Wall, Dennis; Bergman, Nora; Briggs, Ernestine C; Aliferis, Constantin

    2016-01-01

    Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach--the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN) method-designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study). Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study). Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a 'gold standard' dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment). The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro) and high-level (macro) insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry.

  6. A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry

    PubMed Central

    Saxe, Glenn N.; Statnikov, Alexander; Fenyo, David; Ren, Jiwen; Li, Zhiguo; Prasad, Meera; Wall, Dennis; Bergman, Nora; Briggs, Ernestine C.; Aliferis, Constantin

    2016-01-01

    Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach–the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN) method–designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study). Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study). Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a ‘gold standard’ dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment). The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro) and high-level (macro) insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry. PMID:27028297

  7. Performance of Complex Spreading MIMO Systems With Interference

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    16- QAM ) and 64-quadrature amplitude modulation (64- QAM ). We also investigate the performances of the previous systems for multiple-input...such as quadrature phase-shift keying (QPSK), 16-quadrature amplitude modulation (16- QAM ) and 64-quadrature amplitude modulation (64- QAM ). We also...the equivalent constellation diagrams. In [9], a study of adaptive quadrature amplitude modulation ( QAM ) with complex spreading for high-speed

  8. Complex Systems Engineering Applications for Future Battle Management and Command and Control

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    Yam , Yaneer, The Characteristics and Emerging Behaviors of Systems of Systems, NECSI, January 2004. [2] Bar- Yam , When Systems Engineering Fails...Toward Complex Systems Engineering, International Conference on Systems, Man & Cybernetics Vol. 2, 2003. [3] Braba, D., A. Minai, andY. Bar- Yam ...Control (IFC) “…only complex systems can perform complex tasks” [Braha, Minai, & Bar- Yam , 2006] Example: BMC2 as a Complex System of Systems .a

  9. Predictive modelling of complex agronomic and biological systems.

    PubMed

    Keurentjes, Joost J B; Molenaar, Jaap; Zwaan, Bas J

    2013-09-01

    Biological systems are tremendously complex in their functioning and regulation. Studying the multifaceted behaviour and describing the performance of such complexity has challenged the scientific community for years. The reduction of real-world intricacy into simple descriptive models has therefore convinced many researchers of the usefulness of introducing mathematics into biological sciences. Predictive modelling takes such an approach another step further in that it takes advantage of existing knowledge to project the performance of a system in alternating scenarios. The ever growing amounts of available data generated by assessing biological systems at increasingly higher detail provide unique opportunities for future modelling and experiment design. Here we aim to provide an overview of the progress made in modelling over time and the currently prevalent approaches for iterative modelling cycles in modern biology. We will further argue for the importance of versatility in modelling approaches, including parameter estimation, model reduction and network reconstruction. Finally, we will discuss the difficulties in overcoming the mathematical interpretation of in vivo complexity and address some of the future challenges lying ahead.

  10. Mitotic Exit Control as an Evolved Complex System

    SciTech Connect

    Bosl, W; Li, R

    2005-04-25

    The exit from mitosis is the last critical decision a cell has to make during a division cycle. A complex regulatory system has evolved to evaluate the success of mitotic events and control this decision. Whereas outstanding genetic work in yeast has led to rapid discovery of a large number of interacting genes involved in the control of mitotic exit, it has also become increasingly difficult to comprehend the logic and mechanistic features embedded in the complex molecular network. Our view is that this difficulty stems in part from the attempt to explain mitotic exit control using concepts from traditional top-down engineering design, and that exciting new results from evolutionary engineering design applied to networks and electronic circuits may lend better insights. We focus on four particularly intriguing features of the mitotic exit control system: the two-stepped release of Cdc14; the self-activating nature of Tem1 GTPase; the spatial sensor associated with the spindle pole body; and the extensive redundancy in the mitotic exit network. We attempt to examine these design features from the perspective of evolutionary design and complex system engineering.

  11. Automated Derivation of Complex System Constraints from User Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foshee, Mark; Murey, Kim; Marsh, Angela

    2010-01-01

    The Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) located at the Marshall Space Flight Center has the responsibility of integrating US payload science requirements for the International Space Station (ISS). All payload operations must request ISS system resources so that the resource usage will be included in the ISS on-board execution timelines. The scheduling of resources and building of the timeline is performed using the Consolidated Planning System (CPS). The ISS resources are quite complex due to the large number of components that must be accounted for. The planners at the POIC simplify the process for Payload Developers (PD) by providing the PDs with a application that has the basic functionality PDs need as well as list of simplified resources in the User Requirements Collection (URC) application. The planners maintained a mapping of the URC resources to the CPS resources. The process of manually converting PD's science requirements from a simplified representation to a more complex CPS representation is a time-consuming and tedious process. The goal is to provide a software solution to allow the planners to build a mapping of the complex CPS constraints to the basic URC constraints and automatically convert the PD's requirements into systems requirements during export to CPS.

  12. Synchronization in human musical rhythms and mutually interacting complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Hennig, Holger

    2014-01-01

    Though the music produced by an ensemble is influenced by multiple factors, including musical genre, musician skill, and individual interpretation, rhythmic synchronization is at the foundation of musical interaction. Here, we study the statistical nature of the mutual interaction between two humans synchronizing rhythms. We find that the interbeat intervals of both laypeople and professional musicians exhibit scale-free (power law) cross-correlations. Surprisingly, the next beat to be played by one person is dependent on the entire history of the other person’s interbeat intervals on timescales up to several minutes. To understand this finding, we propose a general stochastic model for mutually interacting complex systems, which suggests a physiologically motivated explanation for the occurrence of scale-free cross-correlations. We show that the observed long-term memory phenomenon in rhythmic synchronization can be imitated by fractal coupling of separately recorded or synthesized audio tracks and thus applied in electronic music. Though this study provides an understanding of fundamental characteristics of timing and synchronization at the interbrain level, the mutually interacting complex systems model may also be applied to study the dynamics of other complex systems where scale-free cross-correlations have been observed, including econophysics, physiological time series, and collective behavior of animal flocks. PMID:25114228

  13. Synchronization in human musical rhythms and mutually interacting complex systems.

    PubMed

    Hennig, Holger

    2014-09-09

    Though the music produced by an ensemble is influenced by multiple factors, including musical genre, musician skill, and individual interpretation, rhythmic synchronization is at the foundation of musical interaction. Here, we study the statistical nature of the mutual interaction between two humans synchronizing rhythms. We find that the interbeat intervals of both laypeople and professional musicians exhibit scale-free (power law) cross-correlations. Surprisingly, the next beat to be played by one person is dependent on the entire history of the other person's interbeat intervals on timescales up to several minutes. To understand this finding, we propose a general stochastic model for mutually interacting complex systems, which suggests a physiologically motivated explanation for the occurrence of scale-free cross-correlations. We show that the observed long-term memory phenomenon in rhythmic synchronization can be imitated by fractal coupling of separately recorded or synthesized audio tracks and thus applied in electronic music. Though this study provides an understanding of fundamental characteristics of timing and synchronization at the interbrain level, the mutually interacting complex systems model may also be applied to study the dynamics of other complex systems where scale-free cross-correlations have been observed, including econophysics, physiological time series, and collective behavior of animal flocks.

  14. Statistical physics of networks, information and complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ecke, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    In this project we explore the mathematical methods and concepts of statistical physics that are fmding abundant applications across the scientific and technological spectrum from soft condensed matter systems and bio-infonnatics to economic and social systems. Our approach exploits the considerable similarity of concepts between statistical physics and computer science, allowing for a powerful multi-disciplinary approach that draws its strength from cross-fertilization and mUltiple interactions of researchers with different backgrounds. The work on this project takes advantage of the newly appreciated connection between computer science and statistics and addresses important problems in data storage, decoding, optimization, the infonnation processing properties of the brain, the interface between quantum and classical infonnation science, the verification of large software programs, modeling of complex systems including disease epidemiology, resource distribution issues, and the nature of highly fluctuating complex systems. Common themes that the project has been emphasizing are (i) neural computation, (ii) network theory and its applications, and (iii) a statistical physics approach to infonnation theory. The project's efforts focus on the general problem of optimization and variational techniques, algorithm development and infonnation theoretic approaches to quantum systems. These efforts are responsible for fruitful collaborations and the nucleation of science efforts that span multiple divisions such as EES, CCS, 0 , T, ISR and P. This project supports the DOE mission in Energy Security and Nuclear Non-Proliferation by developing novel infonnation science tools for communication, sensing, and interacting complex networks such as the internet or energy distribution system. The work also supports programs in Threat Reduction and Homeland Security.

  15. The choice of internal coordinates in complex chemical systems.

    PubMed

    Németh, Károly; Challacombe, Matt; Van Veenendaal, Michel

    2010-07-30

    This article presents several considerations for the appropriate choice of internal coordinates in various complex chemical systems. The appropriate and black box recognition of internal coordinates is of fundamental importance for the extension of internal coordinate algorithms to all fields where previously Cartesian coordinates were the preferred means of geometry manipulations. Such fields range from local and global geometry optimizations to molecular dynamics as applied to a wide variety of chemical systems. We present a robust algorithm that is capable to quickly determine the appropriate choice of internal coordinates in a wide range of atomic arrangements.

  16. Localized motion in random matrix decomposition of complex financial systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Zheng, Bo; Ren, Fei; Qiu, Tian

    2017-04-01

    With the random matrix theory, we decompose the multi-dimensional time series of complex financial systems into a set of orthogonal eigenmode functions, which are classified into the market mode, sector mode, and random mode. In particular, the localized motion generated by the business sectors, plays an important role in financial systems. Both the business sectors and their impact on the stock market are identified from the localized motion. We clarify that the localized motion induces different characteristics of the time correlations for the stock-market index and individual stocks. With a variation of a two-factor model, we reproduce the return-volatility correlations of the eigenmodes.

  17. Discovering Recurring Anomalies in Text Reports Regarding Complex Space Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zane-Ulman, Brett; Srivastava, Ashok N.

    2005-01-01

    Many existing complex space systems have a significant amount of historical maintenance and problem data bases that are stored in unstructured text forms. For some platforms, these reports may be encoded as scanned images rather than even searchable text. The problem that we address in this paper is the discovery of recurring anomalies and relationships between different problem reports that may indicate larger systemic problems. We will illustrate our techniques on data from discrepancy reports regarding software anomalies in the Space Shuttle. These free text reports are written by a number of different penp!e, thus the emphasis and wording varies considerably.

  18. Bridging Mechanistic and Phenomenological Models of Complex Biological Systems

    PubMed Central

    Transtrum, Mark K.; Qiu, Peng

    2016-01-01

    The inherent complexity of biological systems gives rise to complicated mechanistic models with a large number of parameters. On the other hand, the collective behavior of these systems can often be characterized by a relatively small number of phenomenological parameters. We use the Manifold Boundary Approximation Method (MBAM) as a tool for deriving simple phenomenological models from complicated mechanistic models. The resulting models are not black boxes, but remain expressed in terms of the microscopic parameters. In this way, we explicitly connect the macroscopic and microscopic descriptions, characterize the equivalence class of distinct systems exhibiting the same range of collective behavior, and identify the combinations of components that function as tunable control knobs for the behavior. We demonstrate the procedure for adaptation behavior exhibited by the EGFR pathway. From a 48 parameter mechanistic model, the system can be effectively described by a single adaptation parameter τ characterizing the ratio of time scales for the initial response and recovery time of the system which can in turn be expressed as a combination of microscopic reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and biochemical concentrations. The situation is not unlike modeling in physics in which microscopically complex processes can often be renormalized into simple phenomenological models with only a few effective parameters. The proposed method additionally provides a mechanistic explanation for non-universal features of the behavior. PMID:27187545

  19. Fabrication of complex three-dimensional microchannel systems in PDMS.

    PubMed

    Wu, Hongkai; Odom, Teri W; Chiu, Daniel T; Whitesides, George M

    2003-01-15

    This paper describes a method for fabricating three-dimensional (3D) microfluidic channel systems in poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) with complex topologies and geometries that include a knot, a spiral channel, a "basketweave" of channels, a chaotic advective mixer, a system with "braided" channels, and a 3D grid of channels. Pseudo-3D channels, which are topologically equivalent to planar channels, are generated by bending corresponding planar channels in PDMS out of the plane into 3D shapes. True 3D channel systems are formed on the basis of the strategy of decomposing these complex networks into substructures that are planar or pseudo-3D. A methodology is developed that connects these planar and/or pseudo-3D structures to generate PDMS channel systems with the original 3D geometry. This technique of joining separate channel structures can also be used to create channel systems in PDMS over large areas by connecting features on different substrates. The channels can be used as templates to form 3D structures in other materials.

  20. Informational analysis involving application of complex information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciupak, Clébia; Vanti, Adolfo Alberto; Balloni, Antonio José; Espin, Rafael

    The aim of the present research is performing an informal analysis for internal audit involving the application of complex information system based on fuzzy logic. The same has been applied in internal audit involving the integration of the accounting field into the information systems field. The technological advancements can provide improvements to the work performed by the internal audit. Thus we aim to find, in the complex information systems, priorities for the work of internal audit of a high importance Private Institution of Higher Education. The applied method is quali-quantitative, as from the definition of strategic linguistic variables it was possible to transform them into quantitative with the matrix intersection. By means of a case study, where data were collected via interview with the Administrative Pro-Rector, who takes part at the elaboration of the strategic planning of the institution, it was possible to infer analysis concerning points which must be prioritized at the internal audit work. We emphasize that the priorities were identified when processed in a system (of academic use). From the study we can conclude that, starting from these information systems, audit can identify priorities on its work program. Along with plans and strategic objectives of the enterprise, the internal auditor can define operational procedures to work in favor of the attainment of the objectives of the organization.

  1. The model Lysozyme-PSSNa system for electrostatic complexation: Similarities and differences with complex coacervation.

    PubMed

    Cousin, F; Gummel, J; Combet, S; Boué, F

    2011-09-14

    We review, based on structural information, the mechanisms involved when putting in contact two nano-objects of opposite electrical charge, in the case of one negatively charged polyion, and a compact charged one. The central case is mixtures of PSS, a strong flexible polyanion (the salt of a strong acid, and with high linear charge density), and Lysozyme, a globular protein with a global positive charge. A wide accurate and consistent set of information in different situations is available on the structure at local scales (5-1000Å), due to the possibility of matching, the reproducibility of the system, its well-defined electrostatics features, and the well-defined structures obtained. We have related these structures to the observations at macroscopic scale of the phase behavior, and to the expected mechanisms of coacervation. On the one hand, PSS/Lysozyme mixtures show accurately many of what is expected in PEL/protein complexation, and phase separation, as reviewed by de Kruif: under certain conditions some well-defined complexes are formed before any phase separation, they are close to neutral; even in excess of one species, complexes are only modestly charged (surface charges in PEL excess). Neutral cores are attracting each other, to form larger objects responsible for large turbidity. They should lead the system to phase separation; this is observed in the more dilute samples, while in more concentrated ones the lack of separation in turbid samples is explained by locking effects between fractal aggregates. On the other hand, although some of the features just listed are the same required for coacervation, this phase transition is not really obtained. The phase separation has all the macroscopic aspects of a fluid (undifferentiated liquid/gas phase) - solid transition, not of a fluid-fluid (liquid-liquid) one, which would correspond to real coacervation). The origin of this can be found in the interaction potential between primary complexes formed (globules

  2. Complex dynamics of blackouts in power transmission systems.

    PubMed

    Carreras, B A; Lynch, V E; Dobson, I; Newman, D E

    2004-09-01

    In order to study the complex global dynamics of a series of blackouts in power transmission systems a dynamical model of such a system has been developed. This model includes a simple representation of the dynamical evolution by incorporating the growth of power demand, the engineering response to system failures, and the upgrade of generator capacity. Two types of blackouts have been identified, each having different dynamical properties. One type of blackout involves the loss of load due to transmission lines reaching their load limits but no line outages. The second type of blackout is associated with multiple line outages. The dominance of one type of blackout over the other depends on operational conditions and the proximity of the system to one of its two critical points. The model displays characteristics such as a probability distribution of blackout sizes with power tails similar to that observed in real blackout data from North America.

  3. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, M.D.; Varma, R.; Heger, A.S.

    1996-03-01

    Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.

  4. The engineering design integration (EDIN) system. [digital computer program complex

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glatt, C. R.; Hirsch, G. N.; Alford, G. E.; Colquitt, W. N.; Reiners, S. J.

    1974-01-01

    A digital computer program complex for the evaluation of aerospace vehicle preliminary designs is described. The system consists of a Univac 1100 series computer and peripherals using the Exec 8 operating system, a set of demand access terminals of the alphanumeric and graphics types, and a library of independent computer programs. Modification of the partial run streams, data base maintenance and construction, and control of program sequencing are provided by a data manipulation program called the DLG processor. The executive control of library program execution is performed by the Univac Exec 8 operating system through a user established run stream. A combination of demand and batch operations is employed in the evaluation of preliminary designs. Applications accomplished with the EDIN system are described.

  5. An investigation of crash avoidance in a complex system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, Michael L.; Lamper, David; Johnson, Neil F.

    2002-12-01

    Complex systems can exhibit unexpected large changes, e.g. a crash in a financial market. We examine the large endogenous changes arising within a non-trivial generalization of the minority game: the grand canonical minority game. Using a Markov-Chain description, we study the many possible paths the system may take. This ‘many-worlds’ view not only allows us to predict the start and end of a crash in this system, but also to investigate how such a crash may be avoided. We find that the system can be ‘immunized’ against large changes: by inducing small changes today, much larger changes in the future can be prevented.

  6. Sustainable design of complex industrial and energy systems under uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zheng

    Depletion of natural resources, environmental pressure, economic globalization, etc., demand seriously industrial organizations to ensure that their manufacturing be sustainable. On the other hand, the efforts of pursing sustainability also give raise to potential opportunities for improvements and collaborations among various types of industries. Owing to inherent complexity and uncertainty, however, sustainability problems of industrial and energy systems are always very difficult to deal with, which has made industrial practice mostly experience based. For existing research efforts on the study of industrial sustainability, although systems approaches have been applied in dealing with the challenge of system complexity, most of them are still lack in the ability of handling inherent uncertainty. To overcome this limit, there is a research need to develop a new generation of systems approaches by integrating techniques and methods for handling various types of uncertainties. To achieve this objective, this research introduced series of holistic methodologies for sustainable design and decision-making of industrial and energy systems. The introduced methodologies are developed in a systems point of view with the functional components involved in, namely, modeling, assessment, analysis, and decision-making. For different methodologies, the interval-parameter-based, fuzzy-logic-based, and Monte Carlo based methods are selected and applied respectively for handling various types of uncertainties involved, and the optimality of solutions is guaranteed by thorough search or system optimization. The proposed methods are generally applicable for any types of industrial systems, and their efficacy had been successfully demonstrated by the given case studies. Beyond that, a computational tool was designed, which provides functions on the industrial sustainability assessment and decision-making through several convenient and interactive steps of computer operation. This

  7. Complex socio-technical systems: Characterization and management guidelines.

    PubMed

    Righi, Angela Weber; Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu

    2015-09-01

    Although ergonomics has paid increasing attention to the perspective of complexity, methods for its operationalization are scarce. This study introduces a framework for the operationalization of the "attribute view" of complexity, which involves: (i) the delimitation of the socio-technical system (STS); (ii) the description of four complexity attributes, namely a large number of elements in dynamic interactions, a wide diversity of elements, unexpected variability, and resilience; (iii) the assessment of six management guidelines, namely design slack, give visibility to processes and outcomes, anticipate and monitor the impacts of small changes, monitor the gap between prescription and practice, encourage diversity of perspectives when making decisions, and create an environment that supports resilience; and (iv) the identification of leverage points for improving the STS design, based on both the analysis of relationships among the attributes and their classification as irreducible/manageable complexity, and liability/asset. The use of the framework is illustrated by the study of an emergency department of a University hospital. Data collection involved analysis of documents, observations of work at the front-line, interviews with employees, and the application of questionnaires.

  8. Visualizing failure effects in complex human-machine systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Jana M.; Mathur, Amit; Morley, Rebecca M.; Scalzo, Richard C.

    2001-07-01

    The ability to understand a system's behavior in both normal and failed conditions is fundamental to the design of error-tolerant systems as well as to the development of diagnostics. The System Analysis for Failure and Error Reduction (SAFER) Project seeks to provide designers with tools to visualize potential sources of error and their effects early in the design of human-machine systems. The project is based on an existing technology that provides a failure-space modeling environment, analysis capabilities for troubleshooting, and error diagnostics using design data of machine systems. The SAFER Project extends the functionality of the existing technology in two significant ways. First, by adding a model of human error probability within the tool, designers are able to estimate the probabilities of human errors and the effects that these errors may have on system components and on the entire system. Second, the visual presentation of failure-related measures and metrics has been improved through a process of user-centered design. This paper will describe the process that was used to develop the human error probability model and will present novel metrics for assessing failure within complex systems.

  9. Multimode lasers as analogs of complex biological systems (a survey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danilov, O. B.; Rosanov, N. N.; Solov'ev, N. A.; Soms, L. N.

    2016-04-01

    Simulating the activity of complex biological systems, in particular, the human brain, is a topical problem the solution of which is necessary both for understanding their functioning and for developing new classes of computational system based on operating principles of the brain. Some features and analogies that can be found in the operation of laser systems and brain and used for developing new generation computational systems are discussed. The appropriateness of such analogies is justified by the fact that both laser systems and the brain are open (interacting with the environment) dissipative spatially distributed nonlinear systems. Therefore, laser optical systems and, in particular, systems with dissipative optical solitons offer an opportunity to experimentally and theoretically model some important cognitive brain functions. One of particularities of the brain operation is the ability to manipulate images. Proceeding from this, in this work, problems related to generation and amplification with laser of spatial structures (images), as well as to amplification of signals coming to it from outside are discussed.

  10. Monitoring and analysis of data from complex systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dollman, Thomas; Webster, Kenneth

    1991-01-01

    Some of the methods, systems, and prototypes that have been tested for monitoring and analyzing the data from several spacecraft and vehicles at the Marshall Space Flight Center are introduced. For the Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) infrastructure, the Marshall Integrated Support System (MISS) provides a migration path to the state-of-the-art workstation environment. Its modular design makes it possible to implement the system in stages on multiple platforms without the need for all components to be in place at once. The MISS provides a flexible, user-friendly environment for monitoring and controlling orbital payloads. In addition, new capabilities and technology may be incorporated into MISS with greater ease. The use of information systems technology in advanced prototype phases, as adjuncts to mainline activities, is used to evaluate new computational techniques for monitoring and analysis of complex systems. Much of the software described (specially, HSTORESIS (Hubble Space Telescope Operational Readiness Expert Safemode Investigation System), DRS (Device Reasoning Shell), DART (Design Alternatives Rational Tool), elements of the DRA (Document Retrieval Assistant), and software for the PPS (Peripheral Processing System) and the HSPP (High-Speed Peripheral Processor)) is available with supporting documentation, and may be applicable to other system monitoring and analysis applications.

  11. Surface Complexation Modelling in Metal-Mineral-Bacteria Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, K. J.; Fein, J. B.

    2002-12-01

    The reactive surfaces of bacteria and minerals can determine the fate, transport, and bioavailability of aqueous heavy metal cations. Geochemical models are instrumental in accurately accounting for the partitioning of the metals between mineral surfaces and bacteria cell walls. Previous research has shown that surface complexation modelling (SCM) is accurate in two-component systems (metal:mineral and metal:bacteria); however, the ability of SCMs to account for metal distribution in mixed metal-mineral-bacteria systems has not been tested. In this study, we measure aqueous Cd distributions in water-bacteria-mineral systems, and compare these observations with predicted distributions based on a surface complexation modelling approach. We measured Cd adsorption in 2- and 3-component batch adsorption experiments. In the 2-component experiments, we measured the extent of adsorption of 10 ppm aqueous Cd onto either a bacterial or hydrous ferric oxide sorbent. The metal:bacteria experiments contained 1 g/L (wet wt.) of B. subtilis, and were conducted as a function of pH; the metal:mineral experiments were conducted as a function of both pH and HFO content. Two types of 3-component Cd adsorption experiments were also conducted in which both mineral powder and bacteria were present as sorbents: 1) one in which the HFO was physically but not chemically isolated from the system using sealed dialysis tubing, and 2) others where the HFO, Cd and B. subtilis were all in physical contact. The dialysis tubing approach enabled the direct determination of the concentration of Cd on each sorbing surface, after separation and acidification of each sorbent. The experiments indicate that both bacteria and mineral surfaces can dominate adsorption in the system, depending on pH and bacteria:mineral ratio. The stability constants, determined using the data from the 2-component systems, along with those for other surface and aqueous species in the systems, were used with FITEQL to

  12. Young Children's Knowledge About the Moon: A Complex Dynamic System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venville, Grady J.; Louisell, Robert D.; Wilhelm, Jennifer A.

    2012-08-01

    The purpose of this research was to use a multidimensional theoretical framework to examine young children's knowledge about the Moon. The research was conducted in the interpretive paradigm and the design was a multiple case study of ten children between the ages of three and eight from the USA and Australia. A detailed, semi-structured interview was conducted with each child. In addition, each child's parents were interviewed to determine possible social and cultural influences on the child's knowledge. We sought evidence about how the social and cultural experiences of the children might have influenced the development of their ideas. From a cognitive perspective we were interested in whether the children's ideas were constructed in a theory like form or whether the knowledge was the result of gradual accumulation of fragments of isolated cultural information. Findings reflected the strong and complex relationship between individual children, their social and cultural milieu, and the way they construct ideas about the Moon and astronomy. Findings are presented around four themes including ontology, creatures and artefacts, animism, and permanence. The findings support a complex dynamic system view of students' knowledge that integrates the framework theory perspective and the knowledge in fragments perspective. An initial model of a complex dynamic system of young children's knowledge about the Moon is presented.

  13. Probing Potential Energy Surface Exploration Strategies for Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    N'Tsouaglo, Gawonou Kokou; Béland, Laurent Karim; Joly, Jean-François; Brommer, Peter; Mousseau, Normand; Pochet, Pascal

    2015-04-14

    The efficiency of minimum-energy configuration searching algorithms is closely linked to the energy landscape structure of complex systems, yet these algorithms often include a number of steps of which the effect is not always clear. Decoupling these steps and their impacts can allow us to better understand both their role and the nature of complex energy landscape. Here, we consider a family of minimum-energy algorithms based, directly or indirectly, on the well-known Bell-Evans-Polanyi (BEP) principle. Comparing trajectories generated with BEP-based algorithms to kinetically correct off-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo schemes allow us to confirm that the BEP principle does not hold for complex systems since forward and reverse energy barriers are completely uncorrelated. As would be expected, following the lowest available energy barrier leads to rapid trapping. This is why BEP-based methods require also a direct handling of visited basins or barriers. Comparing the efficiency of these methods with a thermodynamical handling of low-energy barriers, we show that most of the efficiency of the BEP-like methods lie first and foremost in the basin management rather than in the BEP-like step.

  14. New England style passive solar

    SciTech Connect

    Kriescher, P.

    2000-06-01

    There are homeowners throughout New England who planned for and built homes that allow them to avoid the sting of winter's high heating bills. These climate-responsive homes rely on passive solar heating, cooling and lighting. An example of such a climate-responsive/passive solar house is the home that Arthur and Terry Becker build on 6 beautiful acres (2.4 hectares) of rolling farm and woodland southeast of Andover, Connecticut, in 1981. They worked very closely with their designer, Al Eggan of K.T. Lear and Associates, to ensure that they would never have to pay for home heating oil, and that they would enjoy a level of year-round comfort that they had not experienced in conventionally built homes.

  15. Environmental geology of Bath, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kellaway, G. A.

    1995-10-01

    The hot springs of Bath, England, have been of importance to man for hundreds of years. It was a famous spa in Roman times. Subsequently, the springs were used during the 17th through the 20th centuries and extensive urban and commercial properties were developed at Bath using the water for medical and tourist-oriented activities. With urban and commercial development in the area, man's impact on the environment was substantial and typical environmental problems included pollution, land subsidence, or stability that effected construction, drainage, highways, and canals. During the growth of Bath in the 18th and 19th centuries these environmental problems were described by geologist William Smith and Joseph Townsend. Bath and vicinity provides a unique example of environmental geoscience.

  16. Cervical cancer screening in England.

    PubMed

    Patnick, J

    2000-11-01

    Cervical screening in England is provided free of charge by the National Health Service to all women aged 20-64 years. Computerised call and recall was introduced in 1988 and women receive an invitation every 3-5 years. Smears are taken by the local family doctor, by his/her nurse or at community clinics. Approximately 85% of English women have had a smear in the last 5 years. Quality assurance programmes have recently been established for laboratories and colposcopy clinics and lessons have been learned from previous failures of the service. The incidence has fallen from 16 per 100000 in 1986 to 9.3 per 100000 in 1997. Mortality is currently falling by 7% per year.

  17. Fractal variability: An emergent property of complex dissipative systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seely, Andrew J. E.; Macklem, Peter

    2012-03-01

    The patterns of variation of physiologic parameters, such as heart and respiratory rate, and their alteration with age and illness have long been under investigation; however, the origin and significance of scale-invariant fractal temporal structures that characterize healthy biologic variability remain unknown. Quite independently, atmospheric and planetary scientists have led breakthroughs in the science of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. In this paper, we aim to provide two novel hypotheses regarding the origin and etiology of both the degree of variability and its fractal properties. In a complex dissipative system, we hypothesize that the degree of variability reflects the adaptability of the system and is proportional to maximum work output possible divided by resting work output. Reductions in maximal work output (and oxygen consumption) or elevation in resting work output (or oxygen consumption) will thus reduce overall degree of variability. Second, we hypothesize that the fractal nature of variability is a self-organizing emergent property of complex dissipative systems, precisely because it enables the system's ability to optimally dissipate energy gradients and maximize entropy production. In physiologic terms, fractal patterns in space (e.g., fractal vasculature) or time (e.g., cardiopulmonary variability) optimize the ability to deliver oxygen and clear carbon dioxide and waste. Examples of falsifiability are discussed, along with the need to further define necessary boundary conditions. Last, as our focus is bedside utility, potential clinical applications of this understanding are briefly discussed. The hypotheses are clinically relevant and have potential widespread scientific relevance.

  18. Distributed Cooperation Solution Method of Complex System Based on MAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weijin, Jiang; Yuhui, Xu

    To adapt the model in reconfiguring fault diagnosing to dynamic environment and the needs of solving the tasks of complex system fully, the paper introduced multi-Agent and related technology to the complicated fault diagnosis, an integrated intelligent control system is studied in this paper. Based on the thought of the structure of diagnostic decision and hierarchy in modeling, based on multi-layer decomposition strategy of diagnosis task, a multi-agent synchronous diagnosis federation integrated different knowledge expression modes and inference mechanisms are presented, the functions of management agent, diagnosis agent and decision agent are analyzed, the organization and evolution of agents in the system are proposed, and the corresponding conflict resolution algorithm in given, Layered structure of abstract agent with public attributes is build. System architecture is realized based on MAS distributed layered blackboard. The real world application shows that the proposed control structure successfully solves the fault diagnose problem of the complex plant, and the special advantage in the distributed domain.

  19. Exporting Poor Health: The Irish in England

    PubMed Central

    Delaney, Liam; Fernihough, Alan; Smith, James P

    2013-01-01

    The Irish-born population in England typically were in worse health than both the native population and the Irish population in Ireland, a reversal of the commonly observed healthy migrant effect (HIE). Recent birth-cohorts living in England and born in Ireland, however, are healthier than the English population. The substantial Irish migrant health penalty arises principally for cohorts born between 1920 and 1960. This paper attempts to understand the processes that generated these changing migrant health patterns for Irish migrants to England. Our results suggest a strong role for economic selection in driving the dynamics of health differences between the Irish-born migrants and White English populations. PMID:24014181

  20. Vacuum systems of linear accelerators of the NICA injection complex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosachev, V. V.; Bazanov, A. M.; Butenko, A. V.; Galimov, A. R.; Nesterov, A. V.; Pivin, R. V.; Smirnov, A. V.

    2016-12-01

    The NICA project, which includes several accelerators of charged particles, is under construction in the Laboratory of High Energy Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR), Dubna. Obtaining the required vacuum conditions is one of the key points in implementing the project, because reaching the required ion lifetime at all stages of particle acceleration is what determines the effective luminosity of the experiments in the long run. Currently, modernization of the vacuum system of the injection complex of the LU-20 linear accelerator of light ions, one of oldest accelerators in the JINR, is being carried out and the new HILAC linear accelerator for the acceleration of gold ions in the collider mode of the NICA complex is being installed. At the end parts of the linear accelerators, the residual gas pressure must be approximately 10-5 Pa, which is determined by the maximum amplitude of the RF electric field used for the acceleration of ions.

  1. Modularity and the spread of perturbations in complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolchinsky, Artemy; Gates, Alexander J.; Rocha, Luis M.

    2015-12-01

    We propose a method to decompose dynamical systems based on the idea that modules constrain the spread of perturbations. We find partitions of system variables that maximize "perturbation modularity," defined as the autocovariance of coarse-grained perturbed trajectories. The measure effectively separates the fast intramodular from the slow intermodular dynamics of perturbation spreading (in this respect, it is a generalization of the "Markov stability" method of network community detection). Our approach captures variation of modular organization across different system states, time scales, and in response to different kinds of perturbations: aspects of modularity which are all relevant to real-world dynamical systems. It offers a principled alternative to detecting communities in networks of statistical dependencies between system variables (e.g., "relevance networks" or "functional networks"). Using coupled logistic maps, we demonstrate that the method uncovers hierarchical modular organization planted in a system's coupling matrix. Additionally, in homogeneously coupled map lattices, it identifies the presence of self-organized modularity that depends on the initial state, dynamical parameters, and type of perturbations. Our approach offers a powerful tool for exploring the modular organization of complex dynamical systems.

  2. Control of Future Air Traffic Systems via Complexity Bound Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexandrov, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    The complexity of the present system for managing air traffic has led to "discreteness" in approaches to creating new concepts: new concepts are created as point designs, based on experience, expertise, and creativity of the proposer. Discrete point designs may be highly successful but they are difficult to substantiate in the face of equally strong substantiation of competing concepts, as well as the state of the art in concept evaluation via simulations. Hybrid concepts may present a compromise - the golden middle. Yet a hybrid of sometimes in principle incompatible concepts forms another point design that faces the challenge of substantiation and validation. We are faced with the need to re-design the air transportation system ab initio. This is a daunting task, especially considering the problem of transitioning from the present system to any fundamentally new system. However, design from scratch is also an opportunity to reconsider approaches to new concept development. In this position paper we propose an approach, Optimized Parametric Functional Design, for systematic development of concepts for management and control of airspace systems, based on optimization formulations in terms of required system functions and states. This reasoning framework, realizable in the context of ab initio system design, offers an approach to deriving substantiated airspace management and control concepts. With growing computational power, we hope that the approach will also yield a methodology for actual dynamic control of airspace

  3. Ecosystems and the Biosphere as Complex Adaptive Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levin, Simon A.

    1998-01-01

    Ecosystems are prototypical examples of complex adaptive systems, in which patterns at higher levels emerge from localized interactions and selection processes acting at lower levels. An essential aspect of such systems is nonlinearity, leading to historical dependency and multiple possible outcomes of dynamics. Given this, it is essential to determine the degree to which system features are determined by environmental conditions, and the degree to which they are the result of self-organization. Furthermore, given the multiple levels at which dynamics become apparent and at which selection can act, central issues relate to how evolution shapes ecosystems properties, and whether ecosystems become buffered to changes (more resilient) over their ecological and evolutionary development or proceed to critical states and the edge of chaos.

  4. Alternative methods for computing the sensitivity of complex surveillance systems.

    PubMed

    Hood, G M; Barry, S C; Martin, P A J

    2009-12-01

    Stochastic scenario trees are a new and popular method by which surveillance systems can be analyzed to demonstrate freedom from pests and disease. For multiple component systems-such as a combination of a serological survey and systematically collected observations-it can be difficult to represent the complete system in a tree because many branches are required to represent complex conditional relationships. Here we show that many of the branches of some scenario trees have identical outcomes and are therefore redundant. We demonstrate how to prune branches and derive compact representations of scenario trees using matrix algebra and Bayesian belief networks. The Bayesian network representation is particularly useful for calculation and exposition. It therefore provides a firm basis for arguing disease freedom in international forums.

  5. Integrated geometry and grid generation system for complex configurations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akdag, Vedat; Wulf, Armin

    1992-01-01

    A grid generation system was developed that enables grid generation for complex configurations. The system called ICEM/CFD is described and its role in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications is presented. The capabilities of the system include full computer aided design (CAD), grid generation on the actual CAD geometry definition using robust surface projection algorithms, interfacing easily with known CAD packages through common file formats for geometry transfer, grid quality evaluation of the volume grid, coupling boundary condition set-up for block faces with grid topology generation, multi-block grid generation with or without point continuity and block to block interface requirement, and generating grid files directly compatible with known flow solvers. The interactive and integrated approach to the problem of computational grid generation not only substantially reduces manpower time but also increases the flexibility of later grid modifications and enhancements which is required in an environment where CFD is integrated into a product design cycle.

  6. Constructed wetland treatment system for upper blackfoot mining complex

    SciTech Connect

    Sanders, F.S.

    1996-12-31

    A combined passive oxidation/sedimentation (pre-treatment) and constructed wetland (polishing) system has been designed and installed to treat mine drainage at the inactive Upper Blackfoot River Mining Complex northeast of Lincoln, MT. The system is designed to treat up to 100 gpm flow with moderate heavy metal concentrations (25 to 95 mg/L Zn; lower concentrations of Pb, Cu, and As), moderate Fe concentrations (< 100 mg/L), and periodic high acidity (pH 2.6 to 3.5). The treatment scheme is flexible to accommodate a wide range of flows, metal concentrations, and acidity in order to gain cost-efficiencies and to meet restrictive discharge standards for the environmentally-sensitive Blackfoot River watershed. The wetland treatment system presently is undergoing start-up testing and initial tuning and will be operational during summer, 1996. Conceptual and engineering designs are presented along with preliminary data.

  7. Complexity.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Hernández, J Jaime

    2006-01-01

    It is difficult to define complexity in modeling. Complexity is often associated with uncertainty since modeling uncertainty is an intrinsically difficult task. However, modeling uncertainty does not require, necessarily, complex models, in the sense of a model requiring an unmanageable number of degrees of freedom to characterize the aquifer. The relationship between complexity, uncertainty, heterogeneity, and stochastic modeling is not simple. Aquifer models should be able to quantify the uncertainty of their predictions, which can be done using stochastic models that produce heterogeneous realizations of aquifer parameters. This is the type of complexity addressed in this article.

  8. The physics of complex systems in information and biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Dylan

    Citation networks have re-emerged as a topic intense interest in the complex networks community with the recent availability of large-scale data sets. The ranking of citation networks is a necessary practice as a means to improve information navigability and search. Unlike many information networks, the aging characteristics of citation networks require the development of new ranking methods. To account for strong aging characteristics of citation networks, we modify the PageRank algorithm by initially distributing random surfers exponentially with age, in favor of more recent publications. The output of this algorithm, which we call CiteRank, is interpreted as approximate traffic to individual publications in a simple model of how researchers find new information. We optimize parameters of our algorithm to achieve the best performance. The results are compared for two rather different citation networks: all American Physical Society publications between 1893-2003 and the set of high-energy physics theory (hep-th) preprints. Despite major differences between these two networks, we find that their optimal parameters for the CiteRank algorithm are remarkably similar. The advantages and performance of CiteRank over more conventional methods of ranking publications are discussed. Collaborative voting systems have emerged as an abundant form of real-world, complex information systems that exist in a variety of online applications. These systems are comprised of large populations of users that collectively submit and vote on objects. While the specific properties of these systems vary widely, many of them share a core set of features and dynamical behaviors that govern their evolution. We study a subset of these systems that involve material of a time-critical nature as in the popular example of news items. We consider a general model system in which articles are introduced, voted on by a population of users, and subsequently expire after a proscribed period of time. To

  9. Geology of New England passive margin

    SciTech Connect

    Austin, J.A. Jr.; Uchupi, E.; Shaughnessy, D.R. III; Ballard, R.D.

    1980-01-01

    The New England continental margin began to develop in the Middle Triassic, when rifting of Precambrian/Paleozoic terrane produced a complex arrangement of horsts and grabens. During the Late Triassic-Early Jurassic, these grabens were filled with terrigenous clastics, volcanics, and evaporites. When plate separation took place and seafloor spreading began approximately 195 to 190 m.y.B.P., the newly formed continental edge was uplifted and eroded, truncating preexisting rift structures. As North America began to drift away from Africa, subsidence occurred along a series of normal faults now beneath the outer continental shelf. This hinge zone may represent the boundary between continental crust and a transitional zone of continental and oceanic crustal fragments. Atop the faulted and subsiding crustal platform, thick sediments were deposited. The lower part of the drift sequence is an evaporite-carbonate unit of Early-Middle Jurassic age, and the upper part is a clastic wedge of Middle Jurassic to Cenozoic age. More than 80% of these sediments are Jurassic. Their total thickness may be as much as 13 km beneath the southeastern part of Georges Bank.

  10. Complex rostral neurovascular system in a giant pliosaur

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foffa, Davide; Sassoon, Judyth; Cuff, Andrew R.; Mavrogordato, Mark N.; Benton, Michael J.

    2014-05-01

    Pliosaurs were a long-lived, ubiquitous group of Mesozoic marine predators attaining large body sizes (up to 12 m). Despite much being known about their ecology and behaviour, the mechanisms they adopted for prey detection have been poorly investigated and represent a mystery to date. Complex neurovascular systems in many vertebrate rostra have evolved for prey detection. However, information on the occurrence of such systems in fossil taxa is extremely limited because of poor preservation potential. The neurovascular complex from the snout of an exceptionally well-preserved pliosaur from the Kimmeridgian (Late Jurassic, c. 170 Myr ago) of Weymouth Bay (Dorset, UK) is described here for the first time. Using computed tomography (CT) scans, the extensive bifurcating neurovascular channels could be traced through the rostrum to both the teeth and the foramina on the dorsal and lateral surface of the snout. The structures on the surface of the skull and the high concentrations of peripheral rami suggest that this could be a sensory system, perhaps similar to crocodile pressure receptors or shark electroreceptors.

  11. How complexity emerges in urban systems: Theory of urban morphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goh, Segun; Choi, M. Y.; Lee, Keumsook; Kim, Kyung-min

    2016-05-01

    Human beings develop the land and transform land use patterns, constructing artificial structures. Among them, the city is a representative system and its morphology has attracted much attention. While most existing studies have been devoted to individual dynamics and focused on the proximity of specific areas of a city, we here pay attention to the city as a complex system, where interactions between individuals give rise to emergent properties. Specifically, analyzing the big data on every building in Seoul City, we specify the relevant interactions among constituents and probe the emergence of complex land use patterns. In particular, based on the empirical observations, we illustrate that interactions between land uses are frustrated, which serves as a basic postulate of the theory of urban morphology. We examine this conjecture with the help of a layered Ising-type model and disclose that the actual land use pattern emerges at the criticality of the system in the presence of heterogeneously distributed fields. It is also remarked that our model, allowing quantitative predictions, can easily be applied to other cities around the world.

  12. Connectivity and complex systems in geomorphology: addressing some key challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pöppl, Ronald; Turnbull-Lloyd, Laura; Parsons, Anthony; Bracken, Louise; Keesstra, Saskia; Masselink, Rens

    2016-04-01

    "Connectivity thinking" and related concepts have a long history in geomorphology. Since the beginning of the 21st century connectivity research experienced a huge boom in geomorphology as geomorphologists started to develop new concepts on connectivity to better understand the complexity of geomorphic systems and system response to change. However, progress in the field of connectivity in geomorphology has mostly been developing in a parallel manner, resulting in a multiplicity of definitions, concepts and methodological approaches. Nevertheless, a set of common key challenges amongst the different connectivity concepts and approaches used to understand complex geomorphic systems are also evident. In the course of a theory think tank of the COST Action ES1306 (CONNECTEUR - Connecting European Connectivity Research) the following five different key challenges were detected (Turnbull et al., in prep.): (i) defining the fundamental unit, (ii) distinguishing between structural and functional boundaries, (iii) emergent behavior, (iv) memory effects, (v) measuring connectivity. In this presentation we will a) discuss how these key challenges are addressed and approached in connectivity research in geomorphology, b) evaluate ways in which cross-disciplinary advances may be made by exploring potential for a common toolbox approach to the study of connectivity.

  13. Perspective: Explicitly correlated electronic structure theory for complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grüneis, Andreas; Hirata, So; Ohnishi, Yu-ya; Ten-no, Seiichiro

    2017-02-01

    The explicitly correlated approach is one of the most important breakthroughs in ab initio electronic structure theory, providing arguably the most compact, accurate, and efficient ansatz for describing the correlated motion of electrons. Since Hylleraas first used an explicitly correlated wave function for the He atom in 1929, numerous attempts have been made to tackle the significant challenges involved in constructing practical explicitly correlated methods that are applicable to larger systems. These include identifying suitable mathematical forms of a correlated wave function and an efficient evaluation of many-electron integrals. R12 theory, which employs the resolution of the identity approximation, emerged in 1985, followed by the introduction of novel correlation factors and wave function ansätze, leading to the establishment of F12 theory in the 2000s. Rapid progress in recent years has significantly extended the application range of explicitly correlated theory, offering the potential of an accurate wave-function treatment of complex systems such as photosystems and semiconductors. This perspective surveys explicitly correlated electronic structure theory, with an emphasis on recent stochastic and deterministic approaches that hold significant promise for applications to large and complex systems including solids.

  14. 13C metabolic flux analysis in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Zamboni, Nicola

    2011-02-01

    Experimental determination of in vivo metabolic rates by methods of (13)C metabolic flux analysis is a pivotal approach to unravel structure and regulation of metabolic networks, in particular with microorganisms grown in minimal media. However, the study of real-life and eukaryotic systems calls for the quantification of fluxes also in cellular compartments, rich media, cell-wide metabolic networks, dynamic systems or single cells. These scenarios drastically increase the complexity of the task, which is only partly dealt by existing approaches that rely on rigorous simulations of label propagation through metabolic networks and require multiple labeling experiments or a priori information on pathway inactivity to simplify the problem. Albeit qualitative and largely driven by human interpretation, statistical analysis of measured (13)C-patterns remains the exclusive alternative to comprehensively handle such complex systems. In the future, this practice will be complemented by novel modeling frameworks to assay particular fluxes within a network by stable isotopic tracer for targeted validation of well-defined hypotheses.

  15. Simulations of Sea Level Rise Effects on Complex Coastal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niedoroda, A. W.; Ye, M.; Saha, B.; Donoghue, J. F.; Reed, C. W.

    2009-12-01

    It is now established that complex coastal systems with elements such as beaches, inlets, bays, and rivers adjust their morphologies according to time-varying balances in between the processes that control the exchange of sediment. Accelerated sea level rise introduces a major perturbation into the sediment-sharing systems. A modeling framework based on a new SL-PR model which is an advanced version of the aggregate-scale CST Model and the event-scale CMS-2D and CMS-Wave combination have been used to simulate the recent evolution of a portion of the Florida panhandle coast. This combination of models provides a method to evaluate coefficients in the aggregate-scale model that were previously treated as fitted parameters. That is, by carrying out simulations of a complex coastal system with runs of the event-scale model representing more than a year it is now possible to directly relate the coefficients in the large-scale SL-PR model to measureable physical parameters in the current and wave fields. This cross-scale modeling procedure has been used to simulate the shoreline evolution at the Santa Rosa Island, a long barrier which houses significant military infrastructure at the north Gulf Coast. The model has been used to simulate 137 years of measured shoreline change and to extend these to predictions of future rates of shoreline migration.

  16. GT-CATS: Tracking Operator Activities in Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callantine, Todd J.; Mitchell, Christine M.; Palmer, Everett A.

    1999-01-01

    Human operators of complex dynamic systems can experience difficulties supervising advanced control automation. One remedy is to develop intelligent aiding systems that can provide operators with context-sensitive advice and reminders. The research reported herein proposes, implements, and evaluates a methodology for activity tracking, a form of intent inferencing that can supply the knowledge required for an intelligent aid by constructing and maintaining a representation of operator activities in real time. The methodology was implemented in the Georgia Tech Crew Activity Tracking System (GT-CATS), which predicts and interprets the actions performed by Boeing 757/767 pilots navigating using autopilot flight modes. This report first describes research on intent inferencing and complex modes of automation. It then provides a detailed description of the GT-CATS methodology, knowledge structures, and processing scheme. The results of an experimental evaluation using airline pilots are given. The results show that GT-CATS was effective in predicting and interpreting pilot actions in real time.

  17. How complexity emerges in urban systems: Theory of urban morphology.

    PubMed

    Goh, Segun; Choi, M Y; Lee, Keumsook; Kim, Kyung-Min

    2016-05-01

    Human beings develop the land and transform land use patterns, constructing artificial structures. Among them, the city is a representative system and its morphology has attracted much attention. While most existing studies have been devoted to individual dynamics and focused on the proximity of specific areas of a city, we here pay attention to the city as a complex system, where interactions between individuals give rise to emergent properties. Specifically, analyzing the big data on every building in Seoul City, we specify the relevant interactions among constituents and probe the emergence of complex land use patterns. In particular, based on the empirical observations, we illustrate that interactions between land uses are frustrated, which serves as a basic postulate of the theory of urban morphology. We examine this conjecture with the help of a layered Ising-type model and disclose that the actual land use pattern emerges at the criticality of the system in the presence of heterogeneously distributed fields. It is also remarked that our model, allowing quantitative predictions, can easily be applied to other cities around the world.

  18. Network thermodynamics and complexity: a transition to relational systems theory.

    PubMed

    Mikulecky, D C

    2001-07-01

    Most systems of interest in today's world are highly structured and highly interactive. They cannot be reduced to simple components without losing a great deal of their system identity. Network thermodynamics is a marriage of classical and non-equilibrium thermodynamics along with network theory and kinetics to provide a practical framework for handling these systems. The ultimate result of any network thermodynamic model is still a set of state vector equations. But these equations are built in a new informative way so that information about the organization of the system is identifiable in the structure of the equations. The domain of network thermodynamics is all of physical systems theory. By using the powerful circuit simulator, the Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis (SPICE), as a general systems simulator, any highly non-linear stiff system can be simulated. Furthermore, the theoretical findings of network thermodynamics are important new contributions. The contribution of a metric structure to thermodynamics compliments and goes beyond other recent work in this area. The application of topological reasoning through Tellegen's theorem shows that a mathematical structure exists into which all physical systems can be represented canonically. The old results in non-equilibrium thermodynamics due to Onsager can be reinterpreted and extended using these new, more holistic concepts about systems. Some examples are given. These are but a few of the many applications of network thermodynamics that have been proven to extend our capacity for handling the highly interactive, non-linear systems that populate both biology and chemistry. The presentation is carried out in the context of the recent growth of the field of complexity science. In particular, the context used for this discussion derives from the work of the mathematical biologist, Robert Rosen.

  19. Concurrent conditions and human listeriosis, England, 1999-2009.

    PubMed

    Mook, Piers; O'Brien, Sarah J; Gillespie, Iain A

    2011-01-01

    The epidemiology of listeriosis in England and Wales changed during 2001-2008; more patients ≥60 years of age had bacteremia than in previous years. To investigate these changes, we calculated risk for listeriosis by concurrent condition for non-pregnancy-associated listeriosis cases reported to the national surveillance system in England during 1999-2009. Conditions occurring with L. monocytogenes infection were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, and compared with appropriate hospital episode statistics inpatient denominator data to calculate incidence rates/million consultations. Malignancies (especially of the blood), kidney disease, liver disease, diabetes, alcoholism, and age ≥60 years were associated with an increased risk for listeriosis. Physicians should consider a diagnosis of listeriosis when treating patients who have concurrent conditions. Providing cancer patients, who accounted for one third of cases, with food safety information might help limit additional cases.

  20. An overview of statistical decomposition techniques applied to complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Tuncer, Yalcin; Tanik, Murat M.; Allison, David B.

    2009-01-01

    The current state of the art in applied decomposition techniques is summarized within a comparative uniform framework. These techniques are classified by the parametric or information theoretic approaches they adopt. An underlying structural model common to all parametric approaches is outlined. The nature and premises of a typical information theoretic approach are stressed. Some possible application patterns for an information theoretic approach are illustrated. Composition is distinguished from decomposition by pointing out that the former is not a simple reversal of the latter. From the standpoint of application to complex systems, a general evaluation is provided. PMID:19724659

  1. A complex systems approach to computational molecular biology

    SciTech Connect

    Lapedes, A. |

    1993-09-01

    We report on the containing research program at Santa Fe Institute that applies complex systems methodology to computational molecular biology. Two aspects are stressed here are the use of co-evolving adaptive neutral networks for determining predictable protein structure classifications, and the use of information theory to elucidate protein structure and function. A ``snapshot`` of the current state of research in these two topics is presented, representing the present state of two major research thrusts in the program of Genetic Data and Sequence Analysis at the Santa Fe Institute.

  2. Intelligent Tutoring for Diagnostic Problem Solving in Complex Dynamic Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    tre cOllecti0n Of ormtio. n he r n tmt or er e Of this C ,ollectof of inorma o. Icluding suggeiont for reducing tis burden. to Watiington N _dgar i...AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS Intelligent Tutoring for Diagnostic Problem Solving in Complex Dynamic Systems C : N00014-87-K-0482 6. AUTHOR(S) PE...Chronister, Sally Cohen, Ed Crowther, Kelly Deyoe, Suzanne Dilley, Brenda Downs, Janet Fath, Dick Henneman , Patty Jones, Merrick Kossack, Steve Krosner

  3. Health monitoring display system for a complex plant

    DOEpatents

    Ridolfo, Charles F.; Harmon, Daryl L.; Colin, Dreyfuss

    2006-08-08

    A single page enterprise wide level display provides a comprehensive readily understood representation of the overall health status of a complex plant. Color coded failure domains allow rapid intuitive recognition of component failure status. A three-tier hierarchy of displays provide details on the health status of the components and systems displayed on the enterprise wide level display in a manner that supports a logical drill down to the health status of sub-components on Tier 1 to expected faults of the sub-components on Tier 2 to specific information relative to expected sub-component failures on Tier 3.

  4. Modal reduction of brake squeal systems using complex interface modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Besset, S.; Sinou, J.-J.

    2017-02-01

    This paper deals with a new efficient reduction method for predicting the stability analysis of a damped nonlinear brake system subjected to friction-induced vibration. The originality of the present work is to propose a generalized double modal synthesis method that combines a classical modal reduction and a condensation at the frictional interface by computing a reduced complex mode basis. Comparisons with the existing double modal synthesis reduction method are performed. It is demonstrated that the new suggested reduction technique is more efficient. It allows to provide satisfactory results with a small number of interfaces modes.

  5. The architecture of the management system of complex steganographic information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evsutin, O. O.; Meshcheryakov, R. V.; Kozlova, A. S.; Solovyev, T. M.

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the study is to create a wide area information system that allows one to control processes of generation, embedding, extraction, and detection of steganographic information. In this paper, the following problems are considered: the definition of the system scope and the development of its architecture. For creation of algorithmic maintenance of the system, classic methods of steganography are used to embed information. Methods of mathematical statistics and computational intelligence are used to identify the embedded information. The main result of the paper is the development of the architecture of the management system of complex steganographic information. The suggested architecture utilizes cloud technology in order to provide service using the web-service via the Internet. It is meant to provide streams of multimedia data processing that are streams with many sources of different types. The information system, built in accordance with the proposed architecture, will be used in the following areas: hidden transfer of documents protected by medical secrecy in telemedicine systems; copyright protection of online content in public networks; prevention of information leakage caused by insiders.

  6. Integrated modeling tool for performance engineering of complex computer systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Gary; Ball, Duane; Hoyt, Susan; Steele, Oscar

    1989-01-01

    This report summarizes Advanced System Technologies' accomplishments on the Phase 2 SBIR contract NAS7-995. The technical objectives of the report are: (1) to develop an evaluation version of a graphical, integrated modeling language according to the specification resulting from the Phase 2 research; and (2) to determine the degree to which the language meets its objectives by evaluating ease of use, utility of two sets of performance predictions, and the power of the language constructs. The technical approach followed to meet these objectives was to design, develop, and test an evaluation prototype of a graphical, performance prediction tool. The utility of the prototype was then evaluated by applying it to a variety of test cases found in the literature and in AST case histories. Numerous models were constructed and successfully tested. The major conclusion of this Phase 2 SBIR research and development effort is that complex, real-time computer systems can be specified in a non-procedural manner using combinations of icons, windows, menus, and dialogs. Such a specification technique provides an interface that system designers and architects find natural and easy to use. In addition, PEDESTAL's multiview approach provides system engineers with the capability to perform the trade-offs necessary to produce a design that meets timing performance requirements. Sample system designs analyzed during the development effort showed that models could be constructed in a fraction of the time required by non-visual system design capture tools.

  7. Air Toxics in New England | US EPA

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2017-04-10

    Find general information about air toxics, what EPA is doing to reduce ambient air toxics levels, information on the reductions we have seen to date from large New England manufacturing companies, as well as links to other related websites.

  8. EPA New England Environmental Data Review Supplement

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document provides Region 1-specific implementation guidance for reviewing and reporting sample results generated for data collection activities and is used in conjunction with the EPA New England Environmental Data Review Program Guidance.

  9. Diesel Exhaust in New England | US EPA

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2017-04-10

    Pollution from diesel engines is a widespread problem across New England and it significantly contributes to air pollution, especially in urban areas. Diesel exhaust is made up of small particles, known as fine particulate matter.

  10. Nonlinear Dynamics of Complex Coevolutionary Systems in Historical Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perdigão, Rui A. P.

    2016-04-01

    A new theoretical paradigm for statistical-dynamical modeling of complex coevolutionary systems is introduced, with the aim to provide historical geoscientists with a practical tool to analyse historical data and its underlying phenomenology. Historical data is assumed to represent the history of dynamical processes of physical and socio-economic nature. If processes and their governing laws are well understood, they are often treated with traditional dynamical equations: deterministic approach. If the governing laws are unknown or impracticable, the process is often treated as if being random (even if it is not): statistical approach. Although single eventful details - such as the exact spatiotemporal structure of a particular hydro-meteorological incident - may often be elusive to a detailed analysis, the overall dynamics exhibit group properties summarized by a simple set of categories or dynamical regimes at multiple scales - from local short-lived convection patterns to large-scale hydro-climatic regimes. The overwhelming microscale complexity is thus conveniently wrapped into a manageable group entity, such as a statistical distribution. In a stationary setting whereby the distribution is assumed to be invariant, alternating regimes are approachable as dynamical intermittence. For instance, in the context of bimodal climatic oscillations such as NAO and ENSO, each mode corresponds to a dynamical regime or phase. However, given external forcings or longer-term internal variability and multiscale coevolution, the structural properties of the system may change. These changes in the dynamical structure bring about a new distribution and associated regimes. The modes of yesteryear may no longer exist as such in the new structural order of the system. In this context, aside from regime intermittence, the system exhibits structural regime change. New oscillations may emerge whilst others fade into the annals of history, e.g. particular climate fluctuations during

  11. Generic parallel Wang-Landau sampling for complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ying Wai; Vogel, Thomas; Landau, David P.; Wüst, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    We introduce a parallel realization for Wang-Landau sampling in Monte Carlo simulations based on a replica-exchange framework. The key idea is to split the entire energy range of the system under consideration into several smaller, overlapping sub intervals. The survey of configurational phase space can then be distributed over multiple processors, with exchanges of random walkers taking place in the overlapping energy windows. To demonstrate the robustness and advantages of this parallel scheme for the simulations of complex systems, we have applied it to protein adsorption problems using the HP lattice protein model[1]. The method gives significant speed-up and achieves strong scaling on small computer architectures like multi-core processors, with a possible improvement in accuracy. We believe that it could be potentially beneficial for large-scale petaflop machines.

  12. Monte Carlo simulations of systems with complex energy landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wüst, T.; Landau, D. P.; Gervais, C.; Xu, Y.

    2009-04-01

    Non-traditional Monte Carlo simulations are a powerful approach to the study of systems with complex energy landscapes. After reviewing several of these specialized algorithms we shall describe the behavior of typical systems including spin glasses, lattice proteins, and models for "real" proteins. In the Edwards-Anderson spin glass it is now possible to produce probability distributions in the canonical ensemble and thermodynamic results of high numerical quality. In the hydrophobic-polar (HP) lattice protein model Wang-Landau sampling with an improved move set (pull-moves) produces results of very high quality. These can be compared with the results of other methods of statistical physics. A more realistic membrane protein model for Glycophorin A is also examined. Wang-Landau sampling allows the study of the dimerization process including an elucidation of the nature of the process.

  13. Automatic latency equalization in VHDL-implemented complex pipelined systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zabołotny, Wojciech M.

    2016-09-01

    In the pipelined data processing systems it is very important to ensure that parallel paths delay data by the same number of clock cycles. If that condition is not met, the processing blocks receive data not properly aligned in time and produce incorrect results. Manual equalization of latencies is a tedious and error-prone work. This paper presents an automatic method of latency equalization in systems described in VHDL. The proposed method uses simulation to measure latencies and verify introduced correction. The solution is portable between different simulation and synthesis tools. The method does not increase the complexity of the synthesized design comparing to the solution based on manual latency adjustment. The example implementation of the proposed methodology together with a simple design demonstrating its use is available as an open source project under BSD license.

  14. A perspective on modeling and simulation of complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Åström, K. J.

    2011-09-01

    There has been an amazing development of modeling and simulation from its beginning in the 1920s, when the technology was available only at a handful of University groups who had access to a mechanical differential analyzer. Today, tools for modeling and simulation are available for every student and engineer. This paper gives a perspective on the development with particular emphasis on technology and paradigm shifts. Modeling is increasingly important for design and operation of complex natural and man-made systems. Because of the increased use of model based control such as Kalman filters and model predictive control, models are also appearing as components of feedback systems. Modeling and simulation are multidisciplinary, it is used in a wide variety of fields and their development have been strongly influenced by mathematics, numerics, computer science and computer technology.

  15. Single cell sequencing approaches for complex biological systems.

    PubMed

    Baslan, Timour; Hicks, James

    2014-06-01

    Biological phenotype is the output of complex interactions between heterogeneous cells within a specified niche. These interactions are tightly governed and regulated by the genetic, epigenetic, and transcriptional states of single cells, with deregulation of these states resulting in disease. As such, genome wide single cell investigations are bound to enhance our knowledge of the underlying principles that govern biological systems. Recent technological advances have enabled such investigations in the form of single-cell sequencing. Here, we review the most recent developments in genome wide profiling of single cells, discuss some of the novel biological observations gleaned by such investigations, and touch upon the promise of single cell sequencing in unraveling biological systems.

  16. Indicator system for advanced nuclear plant control complex

    DOEpatents

    Scarola, Kenneth; Jamison, David S.; Manazir, Richard M.; Rescorl, Robert L.; Harmon, Daryl L.

    1993-01-01

    An advanced control room complex for a nuclear power plant, including a discrete indicator and alarm system (72) which is nuclear qualified for rapid response to changes in plant parameters and a component control system (64) which together provide a discrete monitoring and control capability at a panel (14-22, 26, 28) in the control room (10). A separate data processing system (70), which need not be nuclear qualified, provides integrated and overview information to the control room and to each panel, through CRTs (84) and a large, overhead integrated process status overview board (24). The discrete indicator and alarm system (72) and the data processing system (70) receive inputs from common plant sensors and validate the sensor outputs to arrive at a representative value of the parameter for use by the operator during both normal and accident conditions, thereby avoiding the need for him to assimilate data from each sensor individually. The integrated process status board (24) is at the apex of an information hierarchy that extends through four levels and provides access at each panel to the full display hierarchy. The control room panels are preferably of a modular construction, permitting the definition of inputs and outputs, the man machine interface, and the plant specific algorithms, to proceed in parallel with the fabrication of the panels, the installation of the equipment and the generic testing thereof.

  17. Indicator system for a process plant control complex

    DOEpatents

    Scarola, Kenneth; Jamison, David S.; Manazir, Richard M.; Rescorl, Robert L.; Harmon, Daryl L.

    1993-01-01

    An advanced control room complex for a nuclear power plant, including a discrete indicator and alarm system (72) which is nuclear qualified for rapid response to changes in plant parameters and a component control system (64) which together provide a discrete monitoring and control capability at a panel (14-22, 26, 28) in the control room (10). A separate data processing system (70), which need not be nuclear qualified, provides integrated and overview information to the control room and to each panel, through CRTs (84) and a large, overhead integrated process status overview board (24). The discrete indicator and alarm system (72) and the data processing system (70) receive inputs from common plant sensors and validate the sensor outputs to arrive at a representative value of the parameter for use by the operator during both normal and accident conditions, thereby avoiding the need for him to assimilate data from each sensor individually. The integrated process status board (24) is at the apex of an information hierarchy that extends through four levels and provides access at each panel to the full display hierarchy. The control room panels are preferably of a modular construction, permitting the definition of inputs and outputs, the man machine interface, and the plant specific algorithms, to proceed in parallel with the fabrication of the panels, the installation of the equipment and the generic testing thereof.

  18. Poverty, disease, and the ecology of complex systems.

    PubMed

    Ngonghala, Calistus N; Pluciński, Mateusz M; Murray, Megan B; Farmer, Paul E; Barrett, Christopher B; Keenan, Donald C; Bonds, Matthew H

    2014-04-01

    Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems--such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change--to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development.

  19. Specificity and complexity in bacterial quorum-sensing systems

    PubMed Central

    Hawver, Lisa A.; Jung, Sarah A.; Ng, Wai-Leung

    2016-01-01

    Quorum sensing (QS) is a microbial cell-to-cell communication process that relies on the production and detection of chemical signals called autoinducers (AIs) to monitor cell density and species complexity in the population. QS allows bacteria to behave as a cohesive group and coordinate collective behaviors. While most QS receptors display high specificity to their AI ligands, others are quite promiscuous in signal detection. How do specific QS receptors respond to their cognate signals with high fidelity? Why do some receptors maintain low signal recognition specificity? In addition, many QS systems are composed of multiple intersecting signaling pathways: what are the benefits of preserving such a complex signaling network when a simple linear ‘one-to-one’ regulatory pathway seems sufficient to monitor cell density? Here, we will discuss different molecular mechanisms employed by various QS systems that ensure productive and specific QS responses. Moreover, the network architectures of some well-characterized QS circuits will be reviewed to understand how the wiring of different regulatory components achieves different biological goals. PMID:27354348

  20. Etoile Project : Social Intelligent ICT-System for very large scale education in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourgine, P.; Johnson, J.

    2009-04-01

    The project will devise new theory and implement new ICT-based methods of delivering high-quality low-cost postgraduate education to many thousands of people in a scalable way, with the cost of each extra student being negligible (< a few Euros). The research will create an in vivo laboratory of one to ten thousand postgraduate students studying courses in complex systems. This community is chosen because it is large and interdisciplinary and there is a known requirement for courses for thousand of students across Europe. The project involves every aspect of course production and delivery. Within this the research focused on the creation of a Socially Intelligent Resource Mining system to gather large volumes of high quality educational resources from the internet; new methods to deconstruct these to produce a semantically tagged Learning Object Database; a Living Course Ecology to support the creation and maintenance of evolving course materials; systems to deliver courses; and a ‘socially intelligent assessment system'. The system will be tested on one to ten thousand postgraduate students in Europe working towards the Complex System Society's title of European PhD in Complex Systems. Étoile will have a very high impact both scientifically and socially by (i) the provision of new scalable ICT-based methods for providing very low cost scientific education, (ii) the creation of new mathematical and statistical theory for the multiscale dynamics of complex systems, (iii) the provision of a working example of adaptation and emergence in complex socio-technical systems, and (iv) making a major educational contribution to European complex systems science and its applications.

  1. SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burl, Michael; Wang, Esther; Enke, Brian; Merline, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Physics-based numerical simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. While such codes may provide the highest- fidelity representation of system behavior, they are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. Trying to understand the effects of inputs on outputs by conducting an exhaustive grid-based sweep over the input parameter space is simply too time-consuming. An alternative approach called "directed exploration" has been developed to harvest information from numerical simulators more efficiently. The basic idea is to employ active learning and supervised machine learning to choose cleverly at each step which simulation trials to run next based on the results of previous trials. SIM_EXPLORE is a new computer program that uses directed exploration to explore efficiently complex systems represented by numerical simulations. The software sequentially identifies and runs simulation trials that it believes will be most informative given the results of previous trials. The results of new trials are incorporated into the software's model of the system behavior. The updated model is then used to pick the next round of new trials. This process, implemented as a closed-loop system wrapped around existing simulation code, provides a means to improve the speed and efficiency with which a set of simulations can yield scientifically useful results. The software focuses on the case in which the feedback from the simulation trials is binary-valued, i.e., the learner is only informed of the success or failure of the simulation trial to produce a desired output. The software offers a number of choices for the supervised learning algorithm (the method used to model the system behavior given the results so far) and a number of choices for the active learning strategy (the method used to choose which new simulation trials to run given the current behavior model). The software

  2. PERFORMANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF OZONE PREDICTIONS BY THE ETA-COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM DURING THE 2002 NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-CMAQ model suite) has been developed by linking the NCEP Eta model to the U.S. EPA CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting O3 over the northeastern U.S d...

  3. Practical reliability and uncertainty quantification in complex systems : final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Grace, Matthew D.; Ringland, James T.; Marzouk, Youssef M.; Boggs, Paul T.; Zurn, Rena M.; Diegert, Kathleen V.; Pebay, Philippe Pierre; Red-Horse, John Robert

    2009-09-01

    The purpose of this project was to investigate the use of Bayesian methods for the estimation of the reliability of complex systems. The goals were to find methods for dealing with continuous data, rather than simple pass/fail data; to avoid assumptions of specific probability distributions, especially Gaussian, or normal, distributions; to compute not only an estimate of the reliability of the system, but also a measure of the confidence in that estimate; to develop procedures to address time-dependent or aging aspects in such systems, and to use these models and results to derive optimal testing strategies. The system is assumed to be a system of systems, i.e., a system with discrete components that are themselves systems. Furthermore, the system is 'engineered' in the sense that each node is designed to do something and that we have a mathematical description of that process. In the time-dependent case, the assumption is that we have a general, nonlinear, time-dependent function describing the process. The major results of the project are described in this report. In summary, we developed a sophisticated mathematical framework based on modern probability theory and Bayesian analysis. This framework encompasses all aspects of epistemic uncertainty and easily incorporates steady-state and time-dependent systems. Based on Markov chain, Monte Carlo methods, we devised a computational strategy for general probability density estimation in the steady-state case. This enabled us to compute a distribution of the reliability from which many questions, including confidence, could be addressed. We then extended this to the time domain and implemented procedures to estimate the reliability over time, including the use of the method to predict the reliability at a future time. Finally, we used certain aspects of Bayesian decision analysis to create a novel method for determining an optimal testing strategy, e.g., we can estimate the 'best' location to take the next test to

  4. Automatic restart of complex irrigation systems. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Werner, H.D.; Alcock, R.; DeBoer, D.W.; Olson, D.I.

    1992-05-01

    Automatic restart of irrigation systems under load management has the potential to maximize pumping time during off-peak hours. Existing automation technology ranges from time delay relays to more sophisticated control using computers together with weather data to optimize irrigation practices. Centrifugal pumps and water hammer concerns prevent automatic restart of common but often complex irrigation systems in South Dakota. The irrigator must manually prime the pump and control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Methods to prime centrifugal pumps and control water hammer facilitate automatic restart after load management is released. Seven priming methods and three water hammer control methods were investigated. A sump pump and small vacuum pump were used to test two automatic prime and restart systems in the laboratory. A variable frequency phase converter was also used to automatically control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Economical methods to safely prime and restart centrifugal pumps were discussed. The water hammer control methods safely pressurize the pipeline but require a higher initial investment. The automatic restart systems can be used to safely restart centrifugal pumps and control water hammer after load management is released. Based upon laboratory research and a technical review of available restart components, a computer software program was developed. The program assists customers in evaluating various restart options for automatic restarting of electric irrigation pumps. For further information on the software program, contact the South Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Engineering.

  5. Finger mouse system based on computer vision in complex backgrounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jun; Zhang, Xiong

    2013-12-01

    This paper presents a human-computer interaction system and realizes a real-time virtual mouse. Our system emulates the dragging and selecting functions of a mouse by recognizing bare hands, hence the control style is simple and intuitive. A single camera is used to capture hand images and a DSP chip is embedded as the image processing platform. To deal with complex backgrounds, particularly where skin-like or moving objects appear, we develop novel hand recognition algorithms. Hand segmentation is achieved by skin color cue and background difference. Each input image is corrected according to the luminance and then skin color is extracted by Gaussian model. We employ a Camshift tracking algorithm which receives feedbacks from the recognition module. In fingertip recognition, a method combining template matching and circle drawing is proposed. Our system has advantages of good real-time performance, easy integration and energy conservation. Experiments show that the system is robust to the scaling and rotation of hands.

  6. Multi-Element Unstructured Analyses of Complex Valve Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sulyma, Peter (Technical Monitor); Ahuja, Vineet; Hosangadi, Ashvin; Shipman, Jeremy

    2004-01-01

    The safe and reliable operation of high pressure test stands for rocket engine and component testing places an increased emphasis on the performance of control valves and flow metering devices. In this paper, we will present a series of high fidelity computational analyses of systems ranging from cryogenic control valves and pressure regulator systems to cavitating venturis that are used to support rocket engine and component testing at NASA Stennis Space Center. A generalized multi-element framework with sub-models for grid adaption, grid movement and multi-phase flow dynamics has been used to carry out the simulations. Such a framework provides the flexibility of resolving the structural and functional complexities that are typically associated with valve-based high pressure feed systems and have been difficult to deal with traditional CFD methods. Our simulations revealed a rich variety of flow phenomena such as secondary flow patterns, hydrodynamic instabilities, fluctuating vapor pockets etc. In the paper, we will discuss performance losses related to cryogenic control valves, and provide insight into the physics of the dominant multi-phase fluid transport phenomena that are responsible for the choking like behavior in cryogenic control elements. Additionally, we will provide detailed analyses of the modal instability that is observed in the operation of the dome pressure regulator valve. Such instabilities are usually not localized and manifest themselves as a system wide phenomena leading to an undesirable chatter at high flow conditions.

  7. Active Learning for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burl, Michael C.; Wang, Esther

    2009-01-01

    Physics-based simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. Such codes provide the highest-fidelity representation of system behavior, but are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. For example, conducting an exhaustive sweep over a d-dimensional input parameter space with k-steps along each dimension requires k(sup d) simulation trials (translating into k(sup d) CPU-days for one of our current simulations). An alternative is directed exploration in which the next simulation trials are cleverly chosen at each step. Given the results of previous trials, supervised learning techniques (SVM, KDE, GP) are applied to build up simplified predictive models of system behavior. These models are then used within an active learning framework to identify the most valuable trials to run next. Several active learning strategies are examined including a recently-proposed information-theoretic approach. Performance is evaluated on a set of thirteen synthetic oracles, which serve as surrogates for the more expensive simulations and enable the experiments to be replicated by other researchers.

  8. Complexity of system-level fault diagnosis and diagnosability

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, G.F.

    1986-01-01

    It is now possible to design and build systems that incorporate a large number of processing elements. For this reason, fault-diagnosis at the system level, a research area pioneered by the work of Preparata, Metze, and Chien, is of increasing importance. The formalization of their model utilizes directed graphs together with labelings on edges and vertices. The two central problems introduced by the model are called the diagnosis and diagnosability problems. In the diagnosis problem, an algorithm must identify the faulty units of a system based on test results. In the diagnosability problem, an algorithm must determine the maximum number of faulty units a system can contain and still be guaranteed capable of successfully testing itself. One of the main open questions is resolved for this model by presenting the first polynomial time algorithm for the diagnosability problem. The solution uses network-flow techniques and runs in O(absolute value E absolute value V/sup 3/2/) time. Also presented is a new time-complexity bound of O(min(t absolute value E, t/sup 3/ + absolute value E)) for the diagnosis problem, where t is the maximum number of faulty units.

  9. The American General Hospital as a Complex Social System

    PubMed Central

    Georgopoulos, Basil S.; Matejko, Aleksander

    1967-01-01

    Based on data from and about the medical, nursing, and administrative staffs in a probability sample of general hospitals, involving 41 institutions and some 2,400 respondents, certain aspects of the hospital social system are examined in each of the following basic problem-areas: organizational and member goal attainment; availability and allocation of organizational resources; organizational coordination; social integration; intraorganizational strain; and organizational adaptation. These areas are examined separately and in relation to one another, as a basis for understanding and assessing the overall effectiveness of the hospital as a complex social organization. Hospital effectiveness is viewed in the context of open system theory, as a joint function of the relative success with which the organization handles its problems in these key areas. Findings concerning a number of social-psychological variables in each area are presented and discussed, with emphasis on the interdependence of the areas and on organizational issues and implications. The results show some of the basic strengths and weaknesses of the system. Important differences associated with hospital size and affiliation are also discussed to illustrate the typical profile of the American general hospital and significant variations from it. Similarly, differences among the principal groups in the system are presented, where appropriate. Finally, promising directions for future organizational research in the hospital field are briefly presented.

  10. Complex projective synchronization in drive-response stochastic coupled networks with complex-variable systems and coupling time delays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Xuefei; Xu, Chen; Feng, Jianwen

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, the complex projective synchronization in drive-response stochastic coupled networks with complex-variable systems and linear coupling time delays are considered. The pinning control scheme are adopted to achieve complex projective synchronization and several simple and practical sufficient conditions are obtained in a general drive-response network. In addition, the adaptive feedback algorithms are proposed to adjust the control strength. Several numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods.

  11. Approaching complexity by stochastic methods: From biological systems to turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, Rudolf; Peinke, Joachim; Sahimi, Muhammad; Reza Rahimi Tabar, M.

    2011-09-01

    This review addresses a central question in the field of complex systems: given a fluctuating (in time or space), sequentially measured set of experimental data, how should one analyze the data, assess their underlying trends, and discover the characteristics of the fluctuations that generate the experimental traces? In recent years, significant progress has been made in addressing this question for a class of stochastic processes that can be modeled by Langevin equations, including additive as well as multiplicative fluctuations or noise. Important results have emerged from the analysis of temporal data for such diverse fields as neuroscience, cardiology, finance, economy, surface science, turbulence, seismic time series and epileptic brain dynamics, to name but a few. Furthermore, it has been recognized that a similar approach can be applied to the data that depend on a length scale, such as velocity increments in fully developed turbulent flow, or height increments that characterize rough surfaces. A basic ingredient of the approach to the analysis of fluctuating data is the presence of a Markovian property, which can be detected in real systems above a certain time or length scale. This scale is referred to as the Markov-Einstein (ME) scale, and has turned out to be a useful characteristic of complex systems. We provide a review of the operational methods that have been developed for analyzing stochastic data in time and scale. We address in detail the following issues: (i) reconstruction of stochastic evolution equations from data in terms of the Langevin equations or the corresponding Fokker-Planck equations and (ii) intermittency, cascades, and multiscale correlation functions.

  12. Mathematical test criteria for filtering complex systems: Plentiful observations

    SciTech Connect

    Castronovo, E.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

    2008-03-20

    An important emerging scientific issue is the real time filtering through observations of noisy turbulent signals for complex systems as well as the statistical accuracy of spatio-temporal discretizations for such systems. These issues are addressed here in detail for the setting with plentiful observations for a scalar field through explicit mathematical test criteria utilizing a recent theory [A.J. Majda, M.J. Grote, Explicit off-line criteria for stable accurate time filtering of strongly unstable spatially extended systems, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 (4) (2007) 1124-1129]. For plentiful observations, the number of observations equals the number of mesh points. These test criteria involve much simpler decoupled complex scalar filtering test problems with explicit formulas and elementary numerical experiments which are developed here as guidelines for filter performance. The theory includes information criteria to avoid filter divergence with large model errors, asymptotic Kalman gain, filter stability, and accurate filtering with small ensemble size as well as rigorous results delineating the role of various turbulent spectra for filtering under mesh refinement. These guidelines are also applied to discrete approximations for filtering the stochastically forced dissipative advection equation with very turbulent and noisy signals with either an equipartition of energy or -5/3 turbulent spectrum with infrequent observations as severe test problems. The theory and companion simulations demonstrate accurate statistical filtering in this context with implicit schemes with large time step with very small ensemble sizes and even with unstable explicit schemes under appropriate circumstances provided the filtering strategies are guided by the off-line theoretical criteria. The surprising failure of other strongly stable filtering strategies is also explained through these off-line criteria.

  13. [Ecology of vector systems: a tangle of complexity].

    PubMed

    Rodhain, F

    2008-06-01

    The long co-evolutionary process between arthropods and microorganisms has resulted in a wide variety of relationships. One such relationship involves a wide range of infectious agents (virus, bacteria, protozoa, helminthes) that use blood-feeding arthropods (insects and mites) as vectors for transmission from one vertebrate to another. Transmission involves three components, i.e., microorganism, vector(s), and vertebrate host(s). Study under natural conditions has shown that the underlying mechanisms are extremely complex with circulation of the infectious agents depending on numerous conditions linked not only to bioecology but also to genetic factors in all three component populations. The role of arthropods sometimes goes beyond that of a transmitter of disease. In some cases they also serve as reservoirs or disseminators. In addition changes in the environment whether due to natural causes or human activities (e.g. pollution, agropastoralism, urbanization, transportation network development, and climate change) can have profound and rapid effects on the mechanisms underlying these vector systems. In short the ecology of vector systems closely reflects the extreme complexity of epidemiological studies on diseases caused by infectious agents depending on this type of transmission. As a result prediction of infectious risks and planning of preventive action are difficult. It appears obvious that a good understanding of vector systems in their natural context will require a truly ecological approach to the diseases that must be the focus of extremely close epidemiologic surveillance. Achieving this goal will necessitate more than the skills of physicians and veterinarians. It will require the contribution of specialists from a variety of fields such as microbiology, entomology, systematics, climatology, ecology, urbanism, social sciences, economic development, and many others.

  14. Flight Turbulence: The Stormy Professional Trajectory of Trainee Early Years' Teachers in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barron, Ian

    2016-01-01

    This paper documents trainees' "flight turbulence" as they negotiate the complexities that lie between "the self" and the securing of Early Years Teaching Status in England. Early Years Teachers, besides teaching, are expected to lead improvements to the quality of provision. However, drawing on interview data, an impasse is…

  15. Remodeling Headteachers in England: Is It the End of Educational Leadership?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gunter, Helen M.; Rayner, Steve

    2007-01-01

    We examine the contemporary relationship between headship and leadership in England. This speaks to the current globalizing agenda promoting generic leadership within a modernizing agenda of restructuring and reculturing in public education. Thinking based on several research studies is used to stimulate perspectives on a range of complex tensions…

  16. School Autonomy and Government Control: School Leaders' Views on a Changing Policy Landscape in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Higham, Rob; Earley, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition government elected in 2010 has argued contemporary reform will increase the autonomy of schools in England. Given the complexities that exist, however, in the balance between autonomy and control, we explore how school leaders view autonomy as it exists within the wider policy framework. The article…

  17. New England Colleges under Stress: Presidential Voices from the Region's Smaller Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halfond, Jay A.; Stokes, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Shifting demography, rising operating expenses, plummeting state and federal support, intensified competition, broken financial models… these are just a few of the complex challenges facing New England higher education institutions. Given these tensions, who would be surprised if college presidents in the region weren't occasionally plagued by…

  18. The Commerce of Utility: Teaching Mathematical Geography in Early Modern England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cormack, Lesley B.

    2006-01-01

    The teaching and learning of geographical and mathematical knowledge in early modern England was a complex interaction among scholars, practitioners, merchants, and gentry. Each group had different values and goals associated with geographical knowledge and therefore different educational venues and different topics to be investigated. This paper…

  19. Casebooks in Early Modern England:

    PubMed Central

    Kassell, Lauren

    2014-01-01

    summary Casebooks are the richest sources that we have for encounters between early modern medical practitioners and their patients. This article compares astrological and medical records across two centuries, focused on England, and charts developments in the ways in which practitioners kept records and reflected on their practices. Astrologers had a long history of working from particular moments, stellar configurations, and events to general rules. These practices required systematic notation. Physicians increasingly modeled themselves on Hippocrates, recording details of cases as the basis for reasoned expositions of the histories of disease. Medical records, as other scholars have demonstrated, shaped the production of medical knowledge. Instead, this article focuses on the nature of casebooks as artifacts of the medical encounter. It establishes that casebooks were serial records of practice, akin to diaries, testimonials, and registers; identifies extant English casebooks and the practices that led to their production and preservation; and concludes that the processes of writing, ordering, and preserving medical records are as important for understanding the medical encounter as the records themselves. PMID:25557513

  20. Case for Deploying Complex Systems Utilizing Commodity Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bryant, Barry S.; Pitts, R. Lee

    2003-01-01

    When the International Space Station (ISS) finally reached an operational state, many of the Payload Operations and Integration Facility (POIF) hardware components were reaching end of life, COTS product costs were soaring, and the ISS budget was becoming severely constrained. However, most requirement development was complete. In addition, the ISS program is a fully functioning program with at least fifteen years of operational life remaining. Therefore it is critical that any upgrades, refurbishments, or enhancements be accomplished in realtime with minimal disruptions to service. For these and other reasons, it was necessary to ensure the viability of the POIF. Due to the to the breadth of capability of the POIF (a NASA ground station), it is believed that the lessons to be learned by other complex systems are applicable and any solutions garnered by the POIF are applicable to other complex systems as well. With that in mind, a number of new approaches have been investigated to increase the portability of the POIF and reduce the cost of refurbishment, operations, and maintenance. These new approaches were directed at the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO); not only the refurbishment but also current operational difficulties, licensing, and anticipation of the next refurbishment. Our basic premise is that technology had evolved dramatically since the concept of the POIF ground system and we should leverage our experience on this new technological landscape. Fortunately, Moore's law and market forces have changed the landscape considerably. These changes are manifest in five (5) ways that are particularly relevant to POIF: 1. Complex Instruction Set Computing (CISC) processors have advanced to unprecedented levels of compute capacity with a dramatic cost break, 2. Linux has become a major operating system supported by most vendors on a broad range of platforms, 3. Windows(TradeMark) based desktops are pervasive in the office environment, 4. Stable and affordable