Enhancing emotional-based target prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosnell, Michael; Woodley, Robert

2008-04-01

This work extends existing agent-based target movement prediction to include key ideas of behavioral inertia, steady states, and catastrophic change from existing psychological, sociological, and mathematical work. Existing target prediction work inherently assumes a single steady state for target behavior, and attempts to classify behavior based on a single emotional state set. The enhanced, emotional-based target prediction maintains up to three distinct steady states, or typical behaviors, based on a target's operating conditions and observed behaviors. Each steady state has an associated behavioral inertia, similar to the standard deviation of behaviors within that state. The enhanced prediction framework also allows steady state transitions through catastrophic change and individual steady states could be used in an offline analysis with additional modeling efforts to better predict anticipated target reactions.

Limb-Enhancer Genie: An accessible resource of accurate enhancer predictions in the developing limb

DOE PAGES

Monti, Remo; Barozzi, Iros; Osterwalder, Marco; ...

2017-08-21

Epigenomic mapping of enhancer-associated chromatin modifications facilitates the genome-wide discovery of tissue-specific enhancers in vivo. However, reliance on single chromatin marks leads to high rates of false-positive predictions. More sophisticated, integrative methods have been described, but commonly suffer from limited accessibility to the resulting predictions and reduced biological interpretability. Here we present the Limb-Enhancer Genie (LEG), a collection of highly accurate, genome-wide predictions of enhancers in the developing limb, available through a user-friendly online interface. We predict limb enhancers using a combination of > 50 published limb-specific datasets and clusters of evolutionarily conserved transcription factor binding sites, taking advantage ofmore » the patterns observed at previously in vivo validated elements. By combining different statistical models, our approach outperforms current state-of-the-art methods and provides interpretable measures of feature importance. Our results indicate that including a previously unappreciated score that quantifies tissue-specific nuclease accessibility significantly improves prediction performance. We demonstrate the utility of our approach through in vivo validation of newly predicted elements. Moreover, we describe general features that can guide the type of datasets to include when predicting tissue-specific enhancers genome-wide, while providing an accessible resource to the general biological community and facilitating the functional interpretation of genetic studies of limb malformations.« less

Employing Numerical Weather Models to Enhance Fire Weather and Fire Behavior Predictions

Treesearch

Joseph J. Charney; Lesley A. Fusina

2006-01-01

This paper presents an assessment of fire weather and fire behavior predictions produced by a numerical weather prediction model similar to those used by operational weather forecasters when preparing their forecasts. The PSU/NCAR MM5 model is used to simulate the weather conditions associated with three fire episodes in June 2005. Extreme fire behavior was reported...

Enhanced air dispersion modelling at a typical Chinese nuclear power plant site: Coupling RIMPUFF with two advanced diagnostic wind models.

PubMed

Liu, Yun; Li, Hong; Sun, Sida; Fang, Sheng

2017-09-01

An enhanced air dispersion modelling scheme is proposed to cope with the building layout and complex terrain of a typical Chinese nuclear power plant (NPP) site. In this modelling, the California Meteorological Model (CALMET) and the Stationary Wind Fit and Turbulence (SWIFT) are coupled with the Risø Mesoscale PUFF model (RIMPUFF) for refined wind field calculation. The near-field diffusion coefficient correction scheme of the Atmospheric Relative Concentrations in the Building Wakes Computer Code (ARCON96) is adopted to characterize dispersion in building arrays. The proposed method is evaluated by a wind tunnel experiment that replicates the typical Chinese NPP site. For both wind speed/direction and air concentration, the enhanced modelling predictions agree well with the observations. The fraction of the predictions within a factor of 2 and 5 of observations exceeds 55% and 82% respectively in the building area and the complex terrain area. This demonstrates the feasibility of the new enhanced modelling for typical Chinese NPP sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DEEP: a general computational framework for predicting enhancers

PubMed Central

Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios; Kalnis, Panos; Bajic, Vladimir B.

2015-01-01

Transcription regulation in multicellular eukaryotes is orchestrated by a number of DNA functional elements located at gene regulatory regions. Some regulatory regions (e.g. enhancers) are located far away from the gene they affect. Identification of distal regulatory elements is a challenge for the bioinformatics research. Although existing methodologies increased the number of computationally predicted enhancers, performance inconsistency of computational models across different cell-lines, class imbalance within the learning sets and ad hoc rules for selecting enhancer candidates for supervised learning, are some key questions that require further examination. In this study we developed DEEP, a novel ensemble prediction framework. DEEP integrates three components with diverse characteristics that streamline the analysis of enhancer's properties in a great variety of cellular conditions. In our method we train many individual classification models that we combine to classify DNA regions as enhancers or non-enhancers. DEEP uses features derived from histone modification marks or attributes coming from sequence characteristics. Experimental results indicate that DEEP performs better than four state-of-the-art methods on the ENCODE data. We report the first computational enhancer prediction results on FANTOM5 data where DEEP achieves 90.2% accuracy and 90% geometric mean (GM) of specificity and sensitivity across 36 different tissues. We further present results derived using in vivo-derived enhancer data from VISTA database. DEEP-VISTA, when tested on an independent test set, achieved GM of 80.1% and accuracy of 89.64%. DEEP framework is publicly available at http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/deep/. PMID:25378307

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

PubMed

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Enhancing interacting residue prediction with integrated contact matrix prediction in protein-protein interaction.

PubMed

Du, Tianchuan; Liao, Li; Wu, Cathy H

2016-12-01

Identifying the residues in a protein that are involved in protein-protein interaction and identifying the contact matrix for a pair of interacting proteins are two computational tasks at different levels of an in-depth analysis of protein-protein interaction. Various methods for solving these two problems have been reported in the literature. However, the interacting residue prediction and contact matrix prediction were handled by and large independently in those existing methods, though intuitively good prediction of interacting residues will help with predicting the contact matrix. In this work, we developed a novel protein interacting residue prediction system, contact matrix-interaction profile hidden Markov model (CM-ipHMM), with the integration of contact matrix prediction and the ipHMM interaction residue prediction. We propose to leverage what is learned from the contact matrix prediction and utilize the predicted contact matrix as "feedback" to enhance the interaction residue prediction. The CM-ipHMM model showed significant improvement over the previous method that uses the ipHMM for predicting interaction residues only. It indicates that the downstream contact matrix prediction could help the interaction site prediction.

Combining inferred regulatory and reconstructed metabolic networks enhances phenotype prediction in yeast.

PubMed

Wang, Zhuo; Danziger, Samuel A; Heavner, Benjamin D; Ma, Shuyi; Smith, Jennifer J; Li, Song; Herricks, Thurston; Simeonidis, Evangelos; Baliga, Nitin S; Aitchison, John D; Price, Nathan D

2017-05-01

Gene regulatory and metabolic network models have been used successfully in many organisms, but inherent differences between them make networks difficult to integrate. Probabilistic Regulation Of Metabolism (PROM) provides a partial solution, but it does not incorporate network inference and underperforms in eukaryotes. We present an Integrated Deduced And Metabolism (IDREAM) method that combines statistically inferred Environment and Gene Regulatory Influence Network (EGRIN) models with the PROM framework to create enhanced metabolic-regulatory network models. We used IDREAM to predict phenotypes and genetic interactions between transcription factors and genes encoding metabolic activities in the eukaryote, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. IDREAM models contain many fewer interactions than PROM and yet produce significantly more accurate growth predictions. IDREAM consistently outperformed PROM using any of three popular yeast metabolic models and across three experimental growth conditions. Importantly, IDREAM's enhanced accuracy makes it possible to identify subtle synthetic growth defects. With experimental validation, these novel genetic interactions involving the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex suggested a new role for fatty acid-responsive factor Oaf1 in regulating acetyl-CoA production in glucose grown cells.

Development and validation of a preoperative prediction model for colorectal cancer T-staging based on MDCT images and clinical information.

PubMed

Sa, Sha; Li, Jing; Li, Xiaodong; Li, Yongrui; Liu, Xiaoming; Wang, Defeng; Zhang, Huimao; Fu, Yu

2017-08-15

This study aimed to establish and evaluate the efficacy of a prediction model for colorectal cancer T-staging. T-staging was positively correlated with the level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), expression of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), wall deformity, blurred outer edges, fat infiltration, infiltration into the surrounding tissue, tumor size and wall thickness. Age, location, enhancement rate and enhancement homogeneity were negatively correlated with T-staging. The predictive results of the model were consistent with the pathological gold standard, and the kappa value was 0.805. The total accuracy of staging improved from 51.04% to 86.98% with the proposed model. The clinical, imaging and pathological data of 611 patients with colorectal cancer (419 patients in the training group and 192 patients in the validation group) were collected. A spearman correlation analysis was used to validate the relationship among these factors and pathological T-staging. A prediction model was trained with the random forest algorithm. T staging of the patients in the validation group was predicted by both prediction model and traditional method. The consistency, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) were used to compare the efficacy of the two methods. The newly established comprehensive model can improve the predictive efficiency of preoperative colorectal cancer T-staging.

Neural Network Optimization of Ligament Stiffnesses for the Enhanced Predictive Ability of a Patient-Specific, Computational Foot/Ankle Model.

PubMed

Chande, Ruchi D; Wayne, Jennifer S

2017-09-01

Computational models of diarthrodial joints serve to inform the biomechanical function of these structures, and as such, must be supplied appropriate inputs for performance that is representative of actual joint function. Inputs for these models are sourced from both imaging modalities as well as literature. The latter is often the source of mechanical properties for soft tissues, like ligament stiffnesses; however, such data are not always available for all the soft tissues nor is it known for patient-specific work. In the current research, a method to improve the ligament stiffness definition for a computational foot/ankle model was sought with the greater goal of improving the predictive ability of the computational model. Specifically, the stiffness values were optimized using artificial neural networks (ANNs); both feedforward and radial basis function networks (RBFNs) were considered. Optimal networks of each type were determined and subsequently used to predict stiffnesses for the foot/ankle model. Ultimately, the predicted stiffnesses were considered reasonable and resulted in enhanced performance of the computational model, suggesting that artificial neural networks can be used to optimize stiffness inputs.

An enhanced beam model for constrained layer damping and a parameter study of damping contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zhengchao; Shepard, W. Steve, Jr.

2009-01-01

An enhanced analytical model is presented based on an extension of previous models for constrained layer damping (CLD) in beam-like structures. Most existing CLD models are based on the assumption that shear deformation in the core layer is the only source of damping in the structure. However, previous research has shown that other types of deformation in the core layer, such as deformations from longitudinal extension and transverse compression, can also be important. In the enhanced analytical model developed here, shear, extension, and compression deformations are all included. This model can be used to predict the natural frequencies and modal loss factors. The numerical study shows that compared to other models, this enhanced model is accurate in predicting the dynamic characteristics. As a result, the model can be accepted as a general computation model. With all three types of damping included and the formulation used here, it is possible to study the impact of the structure's geometry and boundary conditions on the relative contribution of each type of damping. To that end, the relative contributions in the frequency domain for a few sample cases are presented.

Hippocampal Processing of Ambiguity Enhances Fear Memory

PubMed Central

Amadi, Ugwechi; Lim, Seh Hong; Liu, Elizabeth; Baratta, Michael V.; Goosens, Ki Ann

2016-01-01

Despite the ubiquitous use of Pavlovian fear conditioning as a model for fear learning, the highly predictable conditions used in the laboratory do not resemble real-world conditions, where dangerous situations can lead to unpleasant outcomes in unpredictable ways. Here we varied the timing of aversive events following predictive cues in rodents and discovered that temporal ambiguity of aversive events greatly enhances fear. During fear conditioning with unpredictably timed aversive events, pharmacological inactivation of the dorsal hippocampus or optogenetic silencing of CA1 cells during aversive negative prediction errors prevented this enhancement of fear without impacting fear learning for predictable events. Dorsal hippocampal inactivation also prevented ambiguity-related enhancement of fear during auditory fear conditioning under a partial reinforcement schedule. These results reveal that information about the timing and occurrence of aversive events is rapidly acquired and that unexpectedly timed or omitted aversive events generate hippocampal signals to enhance fear learning. PMID:28182526

Hippocampal Processing of Ambiguity Enhances Fear Memory.

PubMed

Amadi, Ugwechi; Lim, Seh Hong; Liu, Elizabeth; Baratta, Michael V; Goosens, Ki A

2017-02-01

Despite the ubiquitous use of Pavlovian fear conditioning as a model for fear learning, the highly predictable conditions used in the laboratory do not resemble real-world conditions, in which dangerous situations can lead to unpleasant outcomes in unpredictable ways. In the current experiments, we varied the timing of aversive events after predictive cues in rodents and discovered that temporal ambiguity of aversive events greatly enhances fear. During fear conditioning with unpredictably timed aversive events, pharmacological inactivation of the dorsal hippocampus or optogenetic silencing of cornu ammonis 1 cells during aversive negative prediction errors prevented this enhancement of fear without affecting fear learning for predictable events. Dorsal hippocampal inactivation also prevented ambiguity-related enhancement of fear during auditory fear conditioning under a partial-reinforcement schedule. These results reveal that information about the timing and occurrence of aversive events is rapidly acquired and that unexpectedly timed or omitted aversive events generate hippocampal signals to enhance fear learning.

Enhancements to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) for modeling large snow-dominated mountainous forest watersheds

Treesearch

Anurag Srivastava; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Erin S. Brooks

2015-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, originally developed for hillslope and small watershed applications, simulates complex interactive processes influencing erosion. Recent incorporations to the model have improved the subsurface hydrology components for forest applications. Incorporation of channel routing has made the WEPP model well suited for large...

Classification and Prediction of RF Coupling inside A-320 and A-319 Airplanes using Feed Forward Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jafri, Madiha; Ely, Jay; Vahala, Linda

2006-01-01

Neural Network Modeling is introduced in this paper to classify and predict Interference Path Loss measurements on Airbus 319 and 320 airplanes. Interference patterns inside the aircraft are classified and predicted based on the locations of the doors, windows, aircraft structures and the communication/navigation system-of-concern. Modeled results are compared with measured data and a plan is proposed to enhance the modeling for better prediction of electromagnetic coupling problems inside aircraft.

Enhancement of multimodality texture-based prediction models via optimization of PET and MR image acquisition protocols: a proof of concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallières, Martin; Laberge, Sébastien; Diamant, André; El Naqa, Issam

2017-11-01

Texture-based radiomic models constructed from medical images have the potential to support cancer treatment management via personalized assessment of tumour aggressiveness. While the identification of stable texture features under varying imaging settings is crucial for the translation of radiomics analysis into routine clinical practice, we hypothesize in this work that a complementary optimization of image acquisition parameters prior to texture feature extraction could enhance the predictive performance of texture-based radiomic models. As a proof of concept, we evaluated the possibility of enhancing a model constructed for the early prediction of lung metastases in soft-tissue sarcomas by optimizing PET and MR image acquisition protocols via computerized simulations of image acquisitions with varying parameters. Simulated PET images from 30 STS patients were acquired by varying the extent of axial data combined per slice (‘span’). Simulated T 1-weighted and T 2-weighted MR images were acquired by varying the repetition time and echo time in a spin-echo pulse sequence, respectively. We analyzed the impact of the variations of PET and MR image acquisition parameters on individual textures, and we investigated how these variations could enhance the global response and the predictive properties of a texture-based model. Our results suggest that it is feasible to identify an optimal set of image acquisition parameters to improve prediction performance. The model constructed with textures extracted from simulated images acquired with a standard clinical set of acquisition parameters reached an average AUC of 0.84 +/- 0.01 in bootstrap testing experiments. In comparison, the model performance significantly increased using an optimal set of image acquisition parameters (p = 0.04 ), with an average AUC of 0.89 +/- 0.01 . Ultimately, specific acquisition protocols optimized to generate superior radiomics measurements for a given clinical problem could be developed and standardized via dedicated computer simulations and thereafter validated using clinical scanners.

MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models.

PubMed

Garfinkel, C I; Schwartz, C

2017-10-16

The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those stratospheric sudden warmings that were preceded by a strong MJO event are more predictable at ∼20 day leads than stratospheric sudden warmings not preceded by a MJO event. Hence, knowledge of the MJO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere.

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.; Som, Sukhamony

1990-01-01

The performance modeling and enhancement for periodic execution of large-grain, decision-free algorithms in data flow architectures is examined. Applications include real-time implementation of control and signal processing algorithms where performance is required to be highly predictable. The mapping of algorithms onto the specified class of data flow architectures is realized by a marked graph model called ATAMM (Algorithm To Architecture Mapping Model). Performance measures and bounds are established. Algorithm transformation techniques are identified for performance enhancement and reduction of resource (computing element) requirements. A systematic design procedure is described for generating operating conditions for predictable performance both with and without resource constraints. An ATAMM simulator is used to test and validate the performance prediction by the design procedure. Experiments on a three resource testbed provide verification of the ATAMM model and the design procedure.

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Som, Sukhamoy; Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.

1990-01-01

Performance modeling and performance enhancement for periodic execution of large-grain, decision-free algorithms in data flow architectures are discussed. Applications include real-time implementation of control and signal processing algorithms where performance is required to be highly predictable. The mapping of algorithms onto the specified class of data flow architectures is realized by a marked graph model called algorithm to architecture mapping model (ATAMM). Performance measures and bounds are established. Algorithm transformation techniques are identified for performance enhancement and reduction of resource (computing element) requirements. A systematic design procedure is described for generating operating conditions for predictable performance both with and without resource constraints. An ATAMM simulator is used to test and validate the performance prediction by the design procedure. Experiments on a three resource testbed provide verification of the ATAMM model and the design procedure.

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

PubMed

Carr, Brendan M; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C; Zhu, Wei; Shroyer, A Laurie

2016-01-01

Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

PubMed Central

Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

2015-01-01

Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

Preliminary development of POEAW in enhancing K-11 students’ understanding level on impulse and momentum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luthfiani, T. A.; Sinaga, P.; Samsudin, A.

2018-05-01

We have been analyzed that there were limited research about Predict-Observe- Explain which use writing process with conceptual change text strategy. This study aims to develop a learning model namely Predict-Observe-Explain-Apply-Writing (POEAW) which is able to enhance students’ understanding level. The research method utilized the 4D model (Defining, Designing, Developing and Disseminating) that is formally limited to Developing Stage. There are four experts who judge the learning component (syntax, lesson plan, teaching material and student worksheet) and matter component (learning quality and content component). The result of this study are obtained expert validity test score average of 87% for learning content and 89% for matter component that means the POEAW is valid and can be tested in classroom learning. This research producing POEAW learning model that has five main steps, Predict, Observe, Explain, Apply and Write. To sum up, we have early developed POEAW in enhancing K-11 students’ understanding levels on impulse and momentum.

BiRen: predicting enhancers with a deep-learning-based model using the DNA sequence alone.

PubMed

Yang, Bite; Liu, Feng; Ren, Chao; Ouyang, Zhangyi; Xie, Ziwei; Bo, Xiaochen; Shu, Wenjie

2017-07-01

Enhancer elements are noncoding stretches of DNA that play key roles in controlling gene expression programmes. Despite major efforts to develop accurate enhancer prediction methods, identifying enhancer sequences continues to be a challenge in the annotation of mammalian genomes. One of the major issues is the lack of large, sufficiently comprehensive and experimentally validated enhancers for humans or other species. Thus, the development of computational methods based on limited experimentally validated enhancers and deciphering the transcriptional regulatory code encoded in the enhancer sequences is urgent. We present a deep-learning-based hybrid architecture, BiRen, which predicts enhancers using the DNA sequence alone. Our results demonstrate that BiRen can learn common enhancer patterns directly from the DNA sequence and exhibits superior accuracy, robustness and generalizability in enhancer prediction relative to other state-of-the-art enhancer predictors based on sequence characteristics. Our BiRen will enable researchers to acquire a deeper understanding of the regulatory code of enhancer sequences. Our BiRen method can be freely accessed at https://github.com/wenjiegroup/BiRen . shuwj@bmi.ac.cn or boxc@bmi.ac.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Performance characterization of complex fuel port geometries for hybrid rocket fuel grains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bath, Andrew

This research investigated the 3D printing and burning of fuel grains with complex geometry and the development of software capable of modeling and predicting the regression of a cross-section of these complex fuel grains. The software developed did predict the geometry to a fair degree of accuracy, especially when enhanced corner rounding was turned on. The model does have some drawbacks, notably being relatively slow, and does not perfectly predict the regression. If corner rounding is turned off, however, the model does become much faster; although less accurate, this method does still predict a relatively accurate resulting burn geometry, and is fast enough to be used for performance-tuning or genetic algorithms. In addition to the modeling method, preliminary investigations into the burning behavior of fuel grains with a helical flow path were performed. The helix fuel grains have a regression rate of nearly 3 times that of any other fuel grain geometry, primarily due to the enhancement of the friction coefficient between the flow and flow path.

A prediction model for the effective thermal conductivity of nanofluids considering agglomeration and the radial distribution function of nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Z. M.; Wang, B.

2018-06-01

Conventional heat transfer fluids usually have low thermal conductivity, limiting their efficiency in many applications. Many experiments have shown that adding nanosize solid particles to conventional fluids can greatly enhance their thermal conductivity. To explain this anomalous phenomenon, many theoretical investigations have been conducted in recent years. Some of this research has indicated that the particle agglomeration effect that commonly occurs in nanofluids should play an important role in such enhancement of the thermal conductivity, while some have shown that the enhancement of the effective thermal conductivity might be accounted for by the structure of nanofluids, which can be described using the radial distribution function of particles. However, theoretical predictions from these studies are not in very good agreement with experimental results. This paper proposes a prediction model for the effective thermal conductivity of nanofluids, considering both the agglomeration effect and the radial distribution function of nanoparticles. The resulting theoretical predictions for several sets of nanofluids are highly consistent with experimental data.

A Combined Pharmacokinetic and Radiologic Assessment of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Response to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Semple, Scott; Harry, Vanessa N. MRCOG.; Parkin, David E.

2009-10-01

Purpose: To investigate the combination of pharmacokinetic and radiologic assessment of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as an early response indicator in women receiving chemoradiation for advanced cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: Twenty women with locally advanced cervical cancer were included in a prospective cohort study. Dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI was carried out before chemoradiation, after 2 weeks of therapy, and at the conclusion of therapy using a 1.5-T MRI scanner. Radiologic assessment of uptake parameters was obtained from resultant intensity curves. Pharmacokinetic analysis using a multicompartment model was also performed. General linear modeling was used to combine radiologic andmore » pharmacokinetic parameters and correlated with eventual response as determined by change in MRI tumor size and conventional clinical response. A subgroup of 11 women underwent repeat pretherapy MRI to test pharmacokinetic reproducibility. Results: Pretherapy radiologic parameters and pharmacokinetic K{sup trans} correlated with response (p < 0.01). General linear modeling demonstrated that a combination of radiologic and pharmacokinetic assessments before therapy was able to predict more than 88% of variance of response. Reproducibility of pharmacokinetic modeling was confirmed. Conclusions: A combination of radiologic assessment with pharmacokinetic modeling applied to dynamic MRI before the start of chemoradiation improves the predictive power of either by more than 20%. The potential improvements in therapy response prediction using this type of combined analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI may aid in the development of more individualized, effective therapy regimens for this patient group.« less

Modeling streamflow in a snow-dominated forest watershed using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

Treesearch

A. Srivastava; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot; E. S. Brooks; D. C. Flanagan

2017-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was originally developed for hillslope and small watershed applications. Recent improvements to WEPP have led to enhanced computations for deep percolation, subsurface lateral flow, and frozen soil. In addition, the incorporation of channel routing has made the WEPP model well suited for large watersheds with perennial...

Enhanced Fan Noise Modeling for Turbofan Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krejsa, Eugene A.; Stone, James R.

2014-01-01

This report describes work by consultants to Diversitech Inc. for the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to revise the fan noise prediction procedure based on fan noise data obtained in the 9- by 15 Foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel at GRC. The purpose of this task is to begin development of an enhanced, analytical, more physics-based, fan noise prediction method applicable to commercial turbofan propulsion systems. The method is to be suitable for programming into a computational model for eventual incorporation into NASA's current aircraft system noise prediction computer codes. The scope of this task is in alignment with the mission of the Propulsion 21 research effort conducted by the coalition of NASA, state government, industry, and academia to develop aeropropulsion technologies. A model for fan noise prediction was developed based on measured noise levels for the R4 rotor with several outlet guide vane variations and three fan exhaust areas. The model predicts the complete fan noise spectrum, including broadband noise, tones, and for supersonic tip speeds, combination tones. Both spectra and directivity are predicted. Good agreement with data was achieved for all fan geometries. Comparisons with data from a second fan, the ADP fan, also showed good agreement.

Applications for predictive microbiology to food packaging

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predictive microbiology has been used for several years in the food industry to predict microbial growth, inactivation and survival. Predictive models provide a useful tool in risk assessment, HACCP set-up and GMP for the food industry to enhance microbial food safety. This report introduces the c...

Predicting User Acceptance of Collaborative Technologies: An Extension of the Technology Acceptance Model for E-Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheung, Ronnie; Vogel, Doug

2013-01-01

Collaborative technologies support group work in project-based environments. In this study, we enhance the technology acceptance model to explain the factors that influence the acceptance of Google Applications for collaborative learning. The enhanced model was empirically evaluated using survey data collected from 136 students enrolled in a…

Emotion dysregulation and peer drinking norms uniquely predict alcohol-related problems via motives.

PubMed

Simons, Raluca M; Hahn, Austin M; Simons, Jeffrey S; Murase, Hanako

2017-08-01

This study examined the relationships between emotion dysregulation, peer drinking norms, drinking motives, and alcohol-related outcomes among 435 college students. We examined the mediating roles of drinking motives when predicting alcohol consumption and related problems from the subscales of the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS; Gratz and Roemer, 2004) via negative and positive reinforcement models. First, we hypothesized that individuals who lack in emotion regulation strategies or have difficulties in accepting negative emotions are more likely to drink to cope. Additionally, we hypothesized that individuals who act impulsively or become distracted when upset as well as those with higher peer drinking norms are more likely to drink for social and enhancement motives. The results of the path model indicated that limited access to emotion regulation strategies significantly predicted alcohol-related problems via both depression and anxiety coping motives, but did not predict alcohol consumption. Nonacceptance of emotional responses was not significantly associated with coping motives. Impulsivity had a significant direct relationship with alcohol problems. Difficulty in engaging in goal-directed behaviors predicted both enhancement and social motives, but only enhancement motives in turn predicted consumption. Norms indirectly predicted problems via enhancement motives and consumption. The results indicated that using alcohol to reduce negative or to increase positive emotions increases alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Overall, results advance our understanding of the mechanisms of increased alcohol use and problems among college students. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nanoscale radiation transport and clinical beam modeling for gold nanoparticle dose enhanced radiotherapy (GNPT) using X-rays

PubMed Central

Sajo, Erno

2016-01-01

We review radiation transport and clinical beam modelling for gold nanoparticle dose-enhanced radiotherapy using X-rays. We focus on the nanoscale radiation transport and its relation to macroscopic dosimetry for monoenergetic and clinical beams. Among other aspects, we discuss Monte Carlo and deterministic methods and their applications to predicting dose enhancement using various metrics. PMID:26642305

Performance prediction for silicon photonics integrated circuits with layout-dependent correlated manufacturing variability.

PubMed

Lu, Zeqin; Jhoja, Jaspreet; Klein, Jackson; Wang, Xu; Liu, Amy; Flueckiger, Jonas; Pond, James; Chrostowski, Lukas

2017-05-01

This work develops an enhanced Monte Carlo (MC) simulation methodology to predict the impacts of layout-dependent correlated manufacturing variations on the performance of photonics integrated circuits (PICs). First, to enable such performance prediction, we demonstrate a simple method with sub-nanometer accuracy to characterize photonics manufacturing variations, where the width and height for a fabricated waveguide can be extracted from the spectral response of a racetrack resonator. By measuring the spectral responses for a large number of identical resonators spread over a wafer, statistical results for the variations of waveguide width and height can be obtained. Second, we develop models for the layout-dependent enhanced MC simulation. Our models use netlist extraction to transfer physical layouts into circuit simulators. Spatially correlated physical variations across the PICs are simulated on a discrete grid and are mapped to each circuit component, so that the performance for each component can be updated according to its obtained variations, and therefore, circuit simulations take the correlated variations between components into account. The simulation flow and theoretical models for our layout-dependent enhanced MC simulation are detailed in this paper. As examples, several ring-resonator filter circuits are studied using the developed enhanced MC simulation, and statistical results from the simulations can predict both common-mode and differential-mode variations of the circuit performance.

Self-Enhancement on a Self-Categorization Leash: Evidence for a Dual-Process Model of First-and Third-Person Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jinguang

2010-01-01

Research suggests that first- and third-person perceptions are driven by the motive to self-enhance and cognitive processes involving the perception of social norms. This article proposes and tests a dual-process model that predicts an interaction between cognition and motivation. Consistent with the model, Experiment 1 (N = 112) showed that…

Meteorological data-processing package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Billingsly, J. B.; Braken, P. A.

1979-01-01

METPAK, meteorological data-processing package of satellite data used to develop cloud-tracking maps, is given. Data can develop and enhance numerical prediction models for mesoscale phenomena and improve ability to detect and predict storms.

Computer-aided global breast MR image feature analysis for prediction of tumor response to chemotherapy: performance assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghaei, Faranak; Tan, Maxine; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Zheng, Bin; Cheng, Samuel

2016-03-01

Dynamic contrast-enhanced breast magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) has been used increasingly in breast cancer diagnosis and assessment of cancer treatment efficacy. In this study, we applied a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to automatically segment breast regions depicting on MR images and used the kinetic image features computed from the global breast MR images acquired before neoadjuvant chemotherapy to build a new quantitative model to predict response of the breast cancer patients to the chemotherapy. To assess performance and robustness of this new prediction model, an image dataset involving breast MR images acquired from 151 cancer patients before undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy was retrospectively assembled and used. Among them, 63 patients had "complete response" (CR) to chemotherapy in which the enhanced contrast levels inside the tumor volume (pre-treatment) was reduced to the level as the normal enhanced background parenchymal tissues (post-treatment), while 88 patients had "partially response" (PR) in which the high contrast enhancement remain in the tumor regions after treatment. We performed the studies to analyze the correlation among the 22 global kinetic image features and then select a set of 4 optimal features. Applying an artificial neural network trained with the fusion of these 4 kinetic image features, the prediction model yielded an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.83+/-0.04. This study demonstrated that by avoiding tumor segmentation, which is often difficult and unreliable, fusion of kinetic image features computed from global breast MR images without tumor segmentation can also generate a useful clinical marker in predicting efficacy of chemotherapy.

Predicting Bacteria Removal by Enhanced Stormwater Control Measures (SCMs) at the Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfand, J.; Bell, C. D.; Boehm, A. B.; Hogue, T. S.; Luthy, R. G.

2017-12-01

Urban stormwater is a major cause of water quality impairment, resulting in surface waters that fail to meet water quality standards and support their designated uses. Fecal indicator bacteria are present in high concentrations in stormwater and are strictly regulated in receiving waters; yet, their fate and transport in urban stormwater is poorly understood. Stormwater control measures (SCMs) are often used to treat, infiltrate, and release urban runoff, but field measurements show that the removal of bacteria by these structural solutions is limited (median log removal = 0.24, n = 370). Researchers have therefore looked to improve bacterial removal by enhancing SCMs through alterations in flow regimes or adding geomedia such as biochar. The present research seeks to develop a model to predict removal of fecal indicator bacteria by enhanced SCMs at the watershed scale in a semi-arid climate. Using the highly developed Ballona Creek watershed (290 km2) located in Los Angeles County as a case study, a hydrologic model is coupled with a stochastic water quality model to predict E. coli concentration near the outfall of the Ballona Creek, Santa Monica Bay. A hydrologic model was developed using EPA SWMM, calibrated for flow from water year 1998-2006 (NSE = 0.94; R2 = 0.94), and validated from water year 2007-2015 (NSE = 0.90; R2 = 0.93). This bacterial loading model was then linked to EPA SUSTAIN and a SCM bacterial removal script to simulate log removal of bacteria by various SCMs and predict bacterial concentrations in Ballona Creek. Preliminary results suggest small enhancements to SCMs that improve bacterial removal (<0.5 log removal) may offer large benefits to surface water quality and enable communities such as Los Angeles to meet their regulatory requirements.

Biochemical methane potential prediction of plant biomasses: Comparing chemical composition versus near infrared methods and linear versus non-linear models.

PubMed

Godin, Bruno; Mayer, Frédéric; Agneessens, Richard; Gerin, Patrick; Dardenne, Pierre; Delfosse, Philippe; Delcarte, Jérôme

2015-01-01

The reliability of different models to predict the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of various plant biomasses using a multispecies dataset was compared. The most reliable prediction models of the BMP were those based on the near infrared (NIR) spectrum compared to those based on the chemical composition. The NIR predictions of local (specific regression and non-linear) models were able to estimate quantitatively, rapidly, cheaply and easily the BMP. Such a model could be further used for biomethanation plant management and optimization. The predictions of non-linear models were more reliable compared to those of linear models. The presentation form (green-dried, silage-dried and silage-wet form) of biomasses to the NIR spectrometer did not influence the performances of the NIR prediction models. The accuracy of the BMP method should be improved to enhance further the BMP prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Goal striving within agentic and communal roles: separate but functionally similar pathways to enhanced well-being.

PubMed

Sheldon, Kennon M; Cooper, M Lynne

2008-06-01

Do agency and communion strivings provide functionally similar but predictively independent pathways to enhanced well-being? We tested this idea via a year-long study of 493 diverse community adults. Our process model, based on self-determination and motive disposition theories, fit the data well. First, the need for achievement predicted initial autonomous motivation for agentic (work and school) role-goals and the need for intimacy predicted felt autonomy for communal (relationship and parenting) goals. For both agentic and communal goals, autonomous motivation predicted corresponding initial expectancies that predicted later goal attainment. Finally, each type of attainment predicted improved adjustment or role-satisfaction over the year. Besides being similar across agency and communion, the model was also similar across race and gender, except that the beneficial effects of communal goal attainment were stronger for high need for intimacy women and Blacks. Implications for agency/communion theories, motivation theories, and theories of well-being are discussed.

Robust model predictive control for satellite formation keeping with eccentricity/inclination vector separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yeerang; Jung, Youeyun; Bang, Hyochoong

2018-05-01

This study presents model predictive formation control based on an eccentricity/inclination vector separation strategy. Alternative collision avoidance can be accomplished by using eccentricity/inclination vectors and adding a simple goal function term for optimization process. Real-time control is also achievable with model predictive controller based on convex formulation. Constraint-tightening approach is address as well improve robustness of the controller, and simulation results are presented to verify performance enhancement for the proposed approach.

Sensor fusion display evaluation using information integration models in enhanced/synthetic vision applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.

1993-01-01

Based on existing integration models in the psychological literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess sensor fusion displays as might be implemented in an enhanced/synthetic vision system. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The pilot's performance with the sensor fusion image is compared to models' predictions based on the pilot's performance when viewing the original component sensor images prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays, clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference; better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal level compared to model predictions; optimal performance compared to model predictions; or, super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays.

Integrated modeling of second phase precipitation in cold-worked 316 stainless steels under irradiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mamivand, Mahmood; Yang, Ying; Busby, Jeremy T.

The current work combines the Cluster Dynamics (CD) technique and CALPHAD-based precipitation modeling to address the second phase precipitation in cold-worked (CW) 316 stainless steels (SS) under irradiation at 300–400 °C. CD provides the radiation enhanced diffusion and dislocation evolution as inputs for the precipitation model. The CALPHAD-based precipitation model treats the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitation processes based on classical nucleation theory and evolution equations, and simulates the composition, size and size distribution of precipitate phases. We benchmark the model against available experimental data at fast reactor conditions (9.4 × 10 –7 dpa/s and 390 °C) and thenmore » use the model to predict the phase instability of CW 316 SS under light water reactor (LWR) extended life conditions (7 × 10 –8 dpa/s and 275 °C). The model accurately predicts the γ' (Ni 3Si) precipitation evolution under fast reactor conditions and that the formation of this phase is dominated by radiation enhanced segregation. The model also predicts a carbide volume fraction that agrees well with available experimental data from a PWR reactor but is much higher than the volume fraction observed in fast reactors. We propose that radiation enhanced dissolution and/or carbon depletion at sinks that occurs at high flux could be the main sources of this inconsistency. The integrated model predicts ~1.2% volume fraction for carbide and ~3.0% volume fraction for γ' for typical CW 316 SS (with 0.054 wt% carbon) under LWR extended life conditions. Finally, this work provides valuable insights into the magnitudes and mechanisms of precipitation in irradiated CW 316 SS for nuclear applications.« less

Integrated modeling of second phase precipitation in cold-worked 316 stainless steels under irradiation

DOE PAGES

Mamivand, Mahmood; Yang, Ying; Busby, Jeremy T.; ...

2017-03-11

The current work combines the Cluster Dynamics (CD) technique and CALPHAD-based precipitation modeling to address the second phase precipitation in cold-worked (CW) 316 stainless steels (SS) under irradiation at 300–400 °C. CD provides the radiation enhanced diffusion and dislocation evolution as inputs for the precipitation model. The CALPHAD-based precipitation model treats the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitation processes based on classical nucleation theory and evolution equations, and simulates the composition, size and size distribution of precipitate phases. We benchmark the model against available experimental data at fast reactor conditions (9.4 × 10 –7 dpa/s and 390 °C) and thenmore » use the model to predict the phase instability of CW 316 SS under light water reactor (LWR) extended life conditions (7 × 10 –8 dpa/s and 275 °C). The model accurately predicts the γ' (Ni 3Si) precipitation evolution under fast reactor conditions and that the formation of this phase is dominated by radiation enhanced segregation. The model also predicts a carbide volume fraction that agrees well with available experimental data from a PWR reactor but is much higher than the volume fraction observed in fast reactors. We propose that radiation enhanced dissolution and/or carbon depletion at sinks that occurs at high flux could be the main sources of this inconsistency. The integrated model predicts ~1.2% volume fraction for carbide and ~3.0% volume fraction for γ' for typical CW 316 SS (with 0.054 wt% carbon) under LWR extended life conditions. Finally, this work provides valuable insights into the magnitudes and mechanisms of precipitation in irradiated CW 316 SS for nuclear applications.« less

A synthetic biology approach to the development of transcriptional regulatory models and custom enhancer design☆,☆☆

PubMed Central

Martinez, Carlos A.; Barr, Kenneth; Kim, Ah-Ram; Reinitz, John

2013-01-01

Synthetic biology offers novel opportunities for elucidating transcriptional regulatory mechanisms and enhancer logic. Complex cis-regulatory sequences—like the ones driving expression of the Drosophila even-skipped gene—have proven difficult to design from existing knowledge, presumably due to the large number of protein-protein interactions needed to drive the correct expression patterns of genes in multicellular organisms. This work discusses two novel computational methods for the custom design of enhancers that employ a sophisticated, empirically validated transcriptional model, optimization algorithms, and synthetic biology. These synthetic elements have both utilitarian and academic value, including improving existing regulatory models as well as evolutionary questions. The first method involves the use of simulated annealing to explore the sequence space for synthetic enhancers whose expression output fit a given search criterion. The second method uses a novel optimization algorithm to find functionally accessible pathways between two enhancer sequences. These paths describe a set of mutations wherein the predicted expression pattern does not significantly vary at any point along the path. Both methods rely on a predictive mathematical framework that maps the enhancer sequence space to functional output. PMID:23732772

Small Engine Technology (SET) Task 23 ANOPP Noise Prediction for Small Engines, Wing Reflection Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lieber, Lysbeth; Brown, Daniel; Golub, Robert A. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The work performed under Task 23 consisted of the development and demonstration of improvements for the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP), specifically targeted to the modeling of engine noise enhancement due to wing reflection. This report focuses on development of the model and procedure to predict the effects of wing reflection, and the demonstration of the procedure, using a representative wing/engine configuration.

Predicting University Performance in Psychology: The Role of Previous Performance and Discipline-Specific Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betts, Lucy R.; Elder, Tracey J.; Hartley, James; Blurton, Anthony

2008-01-01

Recent initiatives to enhance retention and widen participation ensure it is crucial to understand the factors that predict students' performance during their undergraduate degree. The present research used Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to test three separate models that examined the extent to which British Psychology students' A-level entry…

QUANTITATIVE STRUCTURE—PROPERTY RELATIONSHIPS FOR ENHANCING PREDICTIONS OF SYNTHETIC ORGANIC CHEMICAL REMOVAL FROM DRINKING WATER BY GRANULAR ACTIVATED CARBON

EPA Science Inventory

A number of mathematical models have been developed to predict activated carbon column performance using single-solute isotherm data as inputs. Many assumptions are built into these models to account for kinetics of adsorption and competition for adsorption sites. This work...

Fusion of multiscale wavelet-based fractal analysis on retina image for stroke prediction.

PubMed

Che Azemin, M Z; Kumar, Dinesh K; Wong, T Y; Wang, J J; Kawasaki, R; Mitchell, P; Arjunan, Sridhar P

2010-01-01

In this paper, we present a novel method of analyzing retinal vasculature using Fourier Fractal Dimension to extract the complexity of the retinal vasculature enhanced at different wavelet scales. Logistic regression was used as a fusion method to model the classifier for 5-year stroke prediction. The efficacy of this technique has been tested using standard pattern recognition performance evaluation, Receivers Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis and medical prediction statistics, odds ratio. Stroke prediction model was developed using the proposed system.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurement of pancreatic blood flow dynamics predicts type 1 diabetes progression in preclinical models.

PubMed

St Clair, Joshua R; Ramirez, David; Passman, Samantha; Benninger, Richard K P

2018-05-01

In type 1 diabetes (T1D), immune-cell infiltration into the islets of Langerhans (insulitis) and β-cell decline occurs many years before diabetes clinically presents. Non-invasively detecting insulitis and β-cell decline would allow the diagnosis of eventual diabetes, and provide a means to monitor therapeutic intervention. However, there is a lack of validated clinical approaches for specifically and non-invasively imaging disease progression leading to T1D. Islets have a denser microvasculature that reorganizes during diabetes. Here we apply contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurements of pancreatic blood-flow dynamics to non-invasively and predictively assess disease progression in T1D pre-clinical models. STZ-treated mice, NOD mice, and adoptive-transfer mice demonstrate altered islet blood-flow dynamics prior to diabetes onset, consistent with islet microvasculature reorganization. These assessments predict both time to diabetes onset and future responders to antiCD4-mediated disease prevention. Thus contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurements of pancreas blood-flow dynamics may provide a clinically deployable predictive marker for disease progression in pre-symptomatic T1D and therapeutic reversal.

Spectral Neugebauer-based color halftone prediction model accounting for paper fluorescence.

PubMed

Hersch, Roger David

2014-08-20

We present a spectral model for predicting the fluorescent emission and the total reflectance of color halftones printed on optically brightened paper. By relying on extended Neugebauer models, the proposed model accounts for the attenuation by the ink halftones of both the incident exciting light in the UV wavelength range and the emerging fluorescent emission in the visible wavelength range. The total reflectance is predicted by adding the predicted fluorescent emission relative to the incident light and the pure reflectance predicted with an ink-spreading enhanced Yule-Nielsen modified Neugebauer reflectance prediction model. The predicted fluorescent emission spectrum as a function of the amounts of cyan, magenta, and yellow inks is very accurate. It can be useful to paper and ink manufacturers who would like to study in detail the contribution of the fluorescent brighteners and the attenuation of the fluorescent emission by ink halftones.

Predicting epidermal growth factor receptor gene amplification status in glioblastoma multiforme by quantitative enhancement and necrosis features deriving from conventional magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

Dong, Fei; Zeng, Qiang; Jiang, Biao; Yu, Xinfeng; Wang, Weiwei; Xu, Jingjing; Yu, Jinna; Li, Qian; Zhang, Minming

2018-05-01

To study whether some of the quantitative enhancement and necrosis features in preoperative conventional MRI (cMRI) had a predictive value for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene amplification status in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM).Fifty-five patients with pathologically determined GBMs who underwent cMRI were retrospectively reviewed. The following cMRI features were quantitatively measured and recorded: long and short diameters of the enhanced portion (LDE and SDE), maximum and minimum thickness of the enhanced portion (MaxTE and MinTE), and long and short diameters of the necrotic portion (LDN and SDN). Univariate analysis of each feature and a decision tree model fed with all the features were performed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to assess the performance of features, and predictive accuracy was used to assess the performance of the model.For single feature, MinTE showed the best performance in differentiating EGFR gene amplification negative (wild-type) (nEGFR) GBM from EGFR gene amplification positive (pEGFR) GBM, and it got an AUC of 0.68 with a cut-off value of 2.6 mm. The decision tree model included 2 features MinTE and SDN, and got an accuracy of 0.83 in validation dataset.Our results suggest that quantitative measurement of the features MinTE and SDN in preoperative cMRI had a high accuracy for predicting EGFR gene amplification status in GBM.

Emotional arousal amplifies the effects of biased competition in the brain

PubMed Central

Lee, Tae-Ho; Sakaki, Michiko; Cheng, Ruth; Velasco, Ricardo

2014-01-01

The arousal-biased competition model predicts that arousal increases the gain on neural competition between stimuli representations. Thus, the model predicts that arousal simultaneously enhances processing of salient stimuli and impairs processing of relatively less-salient stimuli. We tested this model with a simple dot-probe task. On each trial, participants were simultaneously exposed to one face image as a salient cue stimulus and one place image as a non-salient stimulus. A border around the face cue location further increased its bottom-up saliency. Before these visual stimuli were shown, one of two tones played: one that predicted a shock (increasing arousal) or one that did not. An arousal-by-saliency interaction in category-specific brain regions (fusiform face area for salient faces and parahippocampal place area for non-salient places) indicated that brain activation associated with processing the salient stimulus was enhanced under arousal whereas activation associated with processing the non-salient stimulus was suppressed under arousal. This is the first functional magnetic resonance imaging study to demonstrate that arousal can enhance information processing for prioritized stimuli while simultaneously impairing processing of non-prioritized stimuli. Thus, it goes beyond previous research to show that arousal does not uniformly enhance perceptual processing, but instead does so selectively in ways that optimizes attention to highly salient stimuli. PMID:24532703

Epigenome-wide cross-tissue predictive modeling and comparison of cord blood and placental methylation in a birth cohort

PubMed Central

De Carli, Margherita M; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Trevisi, Letizia; Pantic, Ivan; Brennan, Kasey JM; Hacker, Michele R; Loudon, Holly; Brunst, Kelly J; Wright, Robert O; Wright, Rosalind J; Just, Allan C

2017-01-01

Aim: We compared predictive modeling approaches to estimate placental methylation using cord blood methylation. Materials & methods: We performed locus-specific methylation prediction using both linear regression and support vector machine models with 174 matched pairs of 450k arrays. Results: At most CpG sites, both approaches gave poor predictions in spite of a misleading improvement in array-wide correlation. CpG islands and gene promoters, but not enhancers, were the genomic contexts where the correlation between measured and predicted placental methylation levels achieved higher values. We provide a list of 714 sites where both models achieved an R2 ≥0.75. Conclusion: The present study indicates the need for caution in interpreting cross-tissue predictions. Few methylation sites can be predicted between cord blood and placenta. PMID:28234020

XplOit: An Ontology-Based Data Integration Platform Supporting the Development of Predictive Models for Personalized Medicine.

PubMed

Weiler, Gabriele; Schwarz, Ulf; Rauch, Jochen; Rohm, Kerstin; Lehr, Thorsten; Theobald, Stefan; Kiefer, Stephan; Götz, Katharina; Och, Katharina; Pfeifer, Nico; Handl, Lisa; Smola, Sigrun; Ihle, Matthias; Turki, Amin T; Beelen, Dietrich W; Rissland, Jürgen; Bittenbring, Jörg; Graf, Norbert

2018-01-01

Predictive models can support physicians to tailor interventions and treatments to their individual patients based on their predicted response and risk of disease and help in this way to put personalized medicine into practice. In allogeneic stem cell transplantation risk assessment is to be enhanced in order to respond to emerging viral infections and transplantation reactions. However, to develop predictive models it is necessary to harmonize and integrate high amounts of heterogeneous medical data that is stored in different health information systems. Driven by the demand for predictive instruments in allogeneic stem cell transplantation we present in this paper an ontology-based platform that supports data owners and model developers to share and harmonize their data for model development respecting data privacy.

Inclusion of an ultraviolet radiation transfer component in an urban forest effects model for predicting tree influences on potential below-canopy exposure to UVB radiation

Treesearch

Gordon M. Heisler; Richard H. Grant; David J. Nowak; Wei Gao; Daniel E. Crane; Jeffery T. Walton

2003-01-01

Evaluating the impact of ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB) on urban populations would be enhanced by improved predictions of the UVB radiation at the level of human activity. This paper reports the status of plans for incorporating a UVB prediction module into an existing Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model. UFORE currently has modules to quantify urban forest structure,...

Research Area 3 - Mathematical Sciences: Multiscale Modeling of the Mechanics of Advanced Energetic Materials Relevant to Detonation Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-24

new energetic materials with enhanced energy release rates and reduced sensitivity to unintentional detonation . The following results have been...Mechanics of Advanced Energetic Materials Relevant to Detonation Prediction The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...modeling, molecular simulations, detonation prediction REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S

PREOPERATIVE MRI IMPROVES PREDICTION OF EXTENSIVE OCCULT AXILLARY LYMPH NODE METASTASES IN BREAST CANCER PATIENTS WITH A POSITIVE SENTINEL LYMPH NODE BIOPSY

PubMed Central

Loiselle, Christopher; Eby, Peter R.; Kim, Janice N.; Calhoun, Kristine E.; Allison, Kimberly H.; Gadi, Vijayakrishna K.; Peacock, Sue; Storer, Barry; Mankoff, David A.; Partridge, Savannah C.; Lehman, Constance D.

2014-01-01

Rationale and Objectives To test the ability of quantitative measures from preoperative Dynamic Contrast Enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) to predict, independently and/or with the Katz pathologic nomogram, which breast cancer patients with a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy will have ≥ 4 positive axillary lymph nodes upon completion axillary dissection. Methods and Materials A retrospective review was conducted to identify clinically node-negative invasive breast cancer patients who underwent preoperative DCE-MRI, followed by sentinel node biopsy with positive findings and complete axillary dissection (6/2005 – 1/2010). Clinical/pathologic factors, primary lesion size and quantitative DCE-MRI kinetics were collected from clinical records and prospective databases. DCE-MRI parameters with univariate significance (p < 0.05) to predict ≥ 4 positive axillary nodes were modeled with stepwise regression and compared to the Katz nomogram alone and to a combined MRI-Katz nomogram model. Results Ninety-eight patients with 99 positive sentinel biopsies met study criteria. Stepwise regression identified DCE-MRI total persistent enhancement and volume adjusted peak enhancement as significant predictors of ≥4 metastatic nodes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 for the Katz nomogram, 0.79 for the DCE-MRI multivariate model, and 0.87 for the combined MRI-Katz model. The combined model was significantly more predictive than the Katz nomogram alone (p = 0.003). Conclusion Integration of DCE-MRI primary lesion kinetics significantly improved the Katz pathologic nomogram accuracy to predict presence of metastases in ≥ 4 nodes. DCE-MRI may help identify sentinel node positive patients requiring further localregional therapy. PMID:24331270

Regional Scale High Resolution δ18O Prediction in Precipitation Using MODIS EVI

PubMed Central

Huang, Cho-Ying; Wang, Chung-Ho; Lin, Shou-De; Lo, Yi-Chen; Huang, Bo-Wen; Hatch, Kent A.; Shiu, Hau-Jie; You, Cheng-Feng; Chang, Yuan-Mou; Shen, Sheng-Feng

2012-01-01

The natural variation in stable water isotope ratio data, also known as water isoscape, is a spatiotemporal fingerprint and a powerful natural tracer that has been widely applied in disciplines as diverse as hydrology, paleoclimatology, ecology and forensic investigation. Although much effort has been devoted to developing a predictive water isoscape model, it remains a central challenge for scientists to generate high accuracy, fine scale spatiotemporal water isoscape prediction. Here we develop a novel approach of using the MODIS-EVI (the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer-Enhanced Vegetation Index), to predict δ18O in precipitation at the regional scale. Using a structural equation model, we show that the EVI and precipitated δ18O are highly correlated and thus the EVI is a good predictor of precipitated δ18O. We then test the predictability of our EVI-δ18O model and demonstrate that our approach can provide high accuracy with fine spatial (250×250 m) and temporal (16 days) scale δ18O predictions (annual and monthly predictabilities [r] are 0.96 and 0.80, respectively). We conclude the merging of the EVI and δ18O in precipitation can greatly extend the spatial and temporal data availability and thus enhance the applicability for both the EVI and water isoscape. PMID:23029053

Using synthetic bacterial enhancers to reveal a looping-based mechanism for quenching-like repression

PubMed Central

Brunwasser-Meirom, Michal; Pollak, Yaroslav; Goldberg, Sarah; Levy, Lior; Atar, Orna; Amit, Roee

2016-01-01

We explore a model for ‘quenching-like' repression by studying synthetic bacterial enhancers, each characterized by a different binding site architecture. To do so, we take a three-pronged approach: first, we compute the probability that a protein-bound dsDNA molecule will loop. Second, we use hundreds of synthetic enhancers to test the model's predictions in bacteria. Finally, we verify the mechanism bioinformatically in native genomes. Here we show that excluded volume effects generated by DNA-bound proteins can generate substantial quenching. Moreover, the type and extent of the regulatory effect depend strongly on the relative arrangement of the binding sites. The implications of these results are that enhancers should be insensitive to 10–11 bp insertions or deletions (INDELs) and sensitive to 5–6 bp INDELs. We test this prediction on 61 σ54-regulated qrr genes from the Vibrio genus and confirm the tolerance of these enhancers' sequences to the DNA's helical repeat. PMID:26832446

Using synthetic bacterial enhancers to reveal a looping-based mechanism for quenching-like repression.

PubMed

Brunwasser-Meirom, Michal; Pollak, Yaroslav; Goldberg, Sarah; Levy, Lior; Atar, Orna; Amit, Roee

2016-02-02

We explore a model for 'quenching-like' repression by studying synthetic bacterial enhancers, each characterized by a different binding site architecture. To do so, we take a three-pronged approach: first, we compute the probability that a protein-bound dsDNA molecule will loop. Second, we use hundreds of synthetic enhancers to test the model's predictions in bacteria. Finally, we verify the mechanism bioinformatically in native genomes. Here we show that excluded volume effects generated by DNA-bound proteins can generate substantial quenching. Moreover, the type and extent of the regulatory effect depend strongly on the relative arrangement of the binding sites. The implications of these results are that enhancers should be insensitive to 10-11 bp insertions or deletions (INDELs) and sensitive to 5-6 bp INDELs. We test this prediction on 61 σ(54)-regulated qrr genes from the Vibrio genus and confirm the tolerance of these enhancers' sequences to the DNA's helical repeat.

Enhancing seasonal climate prediction capacity for the Pacific countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Hendon, H.; Charles, A.; Cottrill, A.; Lim, E.-P.; Langford, S.; de Wit, R.; Shelton, K.

2012-04-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific Island Countries to climate change and there is need to improve weekly to seasonal range climate prediction capabilities beyond what is currently available from statistical models. In the seasonal climate prediction project under the Australian Government's Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP), we describe a comprehensive project to strengthen the climate prediction capacities in National Meteorological Services in 14 Pacific Island Countries and East Timor. The intent is particularly to reduce the vulnerability of current services to a changing climate, and improve the overall level of information available assist with managing climate variability. Statistical models cannot account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical record. In contrast, dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate whatever its character or cause and can predict outcomes not seen previously. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system provides more valuable and applicable climate information to a wide range of climate sensitive sectors throughout the countries of the Pacific region. In this project, we have developed seasonal climate outlooks which are based upon the current dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia) seasonal forecast system. At present, meteorological services of the Pacific Island Countries largely employ statistical models for seasonal outlooks. Outcomes of the PASAP project enhanced capabilities of the Pacific Island Countries in seasonal prediction providing National Meteorological Services with an additional tool to analyse meteorological variables such as sea surface temperatures, air temperature, pressure and rainfall using POAMA outputs and prepare more accurate seasonal climate outlooks.

A simple mathematical model to predict sea surface temperature over the northwest Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noori, Roohollah; Abbasi, Mahmud Reza; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Dehghani, Majid

2017-10-01

A novel and simple mathematical model was developed in this study to enhance the capacity of a reduced-order model based on eigenvectors (RMEV) to predict sea surface temperature (SST) in the northwest portion of the Indian Ocean, including the Persian and Oman Gulfs and Arabian Sea. Developed using only the first two of 12,416 possible modes, the enhanced RMEV closely matched observed daily optimum interpolation SST (DOISST) values. Spatial distribution of the first mode indicated the greatest variations in DOISST occurred in the Persian Gulf. Also, the slightly increasing trend in the temporal component of the first mode observed in the study area over the last 34 years properly reflected the impact of climate change and rising DOISST. Given its simplicity and high level of accuracy, the enhanced RMEV can be applied to forecast DOISST in oceans, which the poor forecasting performance and large computational-time of other numerical models may not allow.

A hybrid intelligent method for three-dimensional short-term prediction of dissolved oxygen content in aquaculture.

PubMed

Chen, Yingyi; Yu, Huihui; Cheng, Yanjun; Cheng, Qianqian; Li, Daoliang

2018-01-01

A precise predictive model is important for obtaining a clear understanding of the changes in dissolved oxygen content in crab ponds. Highly accurate interval forecasting of dissolved oxygen content is fundamental to reduce risk, and three-dimensional prediction can provide more accurate results and overall guidance. In this study, a hybrid three-dimensional (3D) dissolved oxygen content prediction model based on a radial basis function (RBF) neural network, K-means and subtractive clustering was developed and named the subtractive clustering (SC)-K-means-RBF model. In this modeling process, K-means and subtractive clustering methods were employed to enhance the hyperparameters required in the RBF neural network model. The comparison of the predicted results of different traditional models validated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid SC-K-means-RBF model for three-dimensional prediction of dissolved oxygen content. Consequently, the proposed model can effectively display the three-dimensional distribution of dissolved oxygen content and serve as a guide for feeding and future studies.

Interference Path Loss Prediction in A319/320 Airplanes Using Modulated Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jafri, Madiha J.; Ely, Jay J.; Vahala, Linda L.

2007-01-01

In this paper, neural network (NN) modeling is combined with fuzzy logic to estimate Interference Path Loss measurements on Airbus 319 and 320 airplanes. Interference patterns inside the aircraft are classified and predicted based on the locations of the doors, windows, aircraft structures and the communication/navigation system-of-concern. Modeled results are compared with measured data. Combining fuzzy logic and NN modeling is shown to improve estimates of measured data over estimates obtained with NN alone. A plan is proposed to enhance the modeling for better prediction of electromagnetic coupling problems inside aircraft.

Accuracy test for link prediction in terms of similarity index: The case of WS and BA models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Min-Woo; Jung, Woo-Sung

2015-07-01

Link prediction is a technique that uses the topological information in a given network to infer the missing links in it. Since past research on link prediction has primarily focused on enhancing performance for given empirical systems, negligible attention has been devoted to link prediction with regard to network models. In this paper, we thus apply link prediction to two network models: The Watts-Strogatz (WS) model and Barabási-Albert (BA) model. We attempt to gain a better understanding of the relation between accuracy and each network parameter (mean degree, the number of nodes and the rewiring probability in the WS model) through network models. Six similarity indices are used, with precision and area under the ROC curve (AUC) value as the accuracy metrics. We observe a positive correlation between mean degree and accuracy, and size independence of the AUC value.

An enhanced MMW and SMMW/THz imaging system performance prediction and analysis tool for concealed weapon detection and pilotage obstacle avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murrill, Steven R.; Jacobs, Eddie L.; Franck, Charmaine C.; Petkie, Douglas T.; De Lucia, Frank C.

2015-10-01

The U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) has continued to develop and enhance a millimeter-wave (MMW) and submillimeter- wave (SMMW)/terahertz (THz)-band imaging system performance prediction and analysis tool for both the detection and identification of concealed weaponry, and for pilotage obstacle avoidance. The details of the MATLAB-based model which accounts for the effects of all critical sensor and display components, for the effects of atmospheric attenuation, concealment material attenuation, and active illumination, were reported on at the 2005 SPIE Europe Security and Defence Symposium (Brugge). An advanced version of the base model that accounts for both the dramatic impact that target and background orientation can have on target observability as related to specular and Lambertian reflections captured by an active-illumination-based imaging system, and for the impact of target and background thermal emission, was reported on at the 2007 SPIE Defense and Security Symposium (Orlando). Further development of this tool that includes a MODTRAN-based atmospheric attenuation calculator and advanced system architecture configuration inputs that allow for straightforward performance analysis of active or passive systems based on scanning (single- or line-array detector element(s)) or staring (focal-plane-array detector elements) imaging architectures was reported on at the 2011 SPIE Europe Security and Defence Symposium (Prague). This paper provides a comprehensive review of a newly enhanced MMW and SMMW/THz imaging system analysis and design tool that now includes an improved noise sub-model for more accurate and reliable performance predictions, the capability to account for postcapture image contrast enhancement, and the capability to account for concealment material backscatter with active-illumination- based systems. Present plans for additional expansion of the model's predictive capabilities are also outlined.

A novel hybrid decomposition-and-ensemble model based on CEEMD and GWO for short-term PM2.5 concentration forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Mingfei; Wang, Yufang; Sun, Shaolong; Li, Yongwu

2016-06-01

To enhance prediction reliability and accuracy, a hybrid model based on the promising principle of "decomposition and ensemble" and a recently proposed meta-heuristic called grey wolf optimizer (GWO) is introduced for daily PM2.5 concentration forecasting. Compared with existing PM2.5 forecasting methods, this proposed model has improved the prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction. The proposed model involves three main steps, i.e., decomposing the original PM2.5 series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) via complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) for simplifying the complex data; individually predicting each IMF with support vector regression (SVR) optimized by GWO; integrating all predicted IMFs for the ensemble result as the final prediction by another SVR optimized by GWO. Seven benchmark models, including single artificial intelligence (AI) models, other decomposition-ensemble models with different decomposition methods and models with the same decomposition-ensemble method but optimized by different algorithms, are considered to verify the superiority of the proposed hybrid model. The empirical study indicates that the proposed hybrid decomposition-ensemble model is remarkably superior to all considered benchmark models for its higher prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction.

An improved model to predict bandwidth enhancement in an inductively tuned common source amplifier.

PubMed

Reza, Ashif; Misra, Anuraag; Das, Parnika

2016-05-01

This paper presents an improved model for the prediction of bandwidth enhancement factor (BWEF) in an inductively tuned common source amplifier. In this model, we have included the effect of drain-source channel resistance of field effect transistor along with load inductance and output capacitance on BWEF of the amplifier. A frequency domain analysis of the model is performed and a closed-form expression is derived for BWEF of the amplifier. A prototype common source amplifier is designed and tested. The BWEF of amplifier is obtained from the measured frequency response as a function of drain current and load inductance. In the present work, we have clearly demonstrated that inclusion of drain-source channel resistance in the proposed model helps to estimate the BWEF, which is accurate to less than 5% as compared to the measured results.

Finite element based model predictive control for active vibration suppression of a one-link flexible manipulator.

PubMed

Dubay, Rickey; Hassan, Marwan; Li, Chunying; Charest, Meaghan

2014-09-01

This paper presents a unique approach for active vibration control of a one-link flexible manipulator. The method combines a finite element model of the manipulator and an advanced model predictive controller to suppress vibration at its tip. This hybrid methodology improves significantly over the standard application of a predictive controller for vibration control. The finite element model used in place of standard modelling in the control algorithm provides a more accurate prediction of dynamic behavior, resulting in enhanced control. Closed loop control experiments were performed using the flexible manipulator, instrumented with strain gauges and piezoelectric actuators. In all instances, experimental and simulation results demonstrate that the finite element based predictive controller provides improved active vibration suppression in comparison with using a standard predictive control strategy. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic elucidation and in vivo validation of sequences enriched in hindbrain transcriptional control

PubMed Central

Burzynski, Grzegorz M.; Reed, Xylena; Taher, Leila; Stine, Zachary E.; Matsui, Takeshi; Ovcharenko, Ivan; McCallion, Andrew S.

2012-01-01

Illuminating the primary sequence encryption of enhancers is central to understanding the regulatory architecture of genomes. We have developed a machine learning approach to decipher motif patterns of hindbrain enhancers and identify 40,000 sequences in the human genome that we predict display regulatory control that includes the hindbrain. Consistent with their roles in hindbrain patterning, MEIS1, NKX6-1, as well as HOX and POU family binding motifs contributed strongly to this enhancer model. Predicted hindbrain enhancers are overrepresented at genes expressed in hindbrain and associated with nervous system development, and primarily reside in the areas of open chromatin. In addition, 77 (0.2%) of these predictions are identified as hindbrain enhancers on the VISTA Enhancer Browser, and 26,000 (60%) overlap enhancer marks (H3K4me1 or H3K27ac). To validate these putative hindbrain enhancers, we selected 55 elements distributed throughout our predictions and six low scoring controls for evaluation in a zebrafish transgenic assay. When assayed in mosaic transgenic embryos, 51/55 elements directed expression in the central nervous system. Furthermore, 30/34 (88%) predicted enhancers analyzed in stable zebrafish transgenic lines directed expression in the larval zebrafish hindbrain. Subsequent analysis of sequence fragments selected based upon motif clustering further confirmed the critical role of the motifs contributing to the classifier. Our results demonstrate the existence of a primary sequence code characteristic to hindbrain enhancers. This code can be accurately extracted using machine-learning approaches and applied successfully for de novo identification of hindbrain enhancers. This study represents a critical step toward the dissection of regulatory control in specific neuronal subtypes. PMID:22759862

Genomic assisted selection for enhancing line breeding: merging genomic and phenotypic selection in winter wheat breeding programs with preliminary yield trials.

PubMed

Michel, Sebastian; Ametz, Christian; Gungor, Huseyin; Akgöl, Batuhan; Epure, Doru; Grausgruber, Heinrich; Löschenberger, Franziska; Buerstmayr, Hermann

2017-02-01

Early generation genomic selection is superior to conventional phenotypic selection in line breeding and can be strongly improved by including additional information from preliminary yield trials. The selection of lines that enter resource-demanding multi-environment trials is a crucial decision in every line breeding program as a large amount of resources are allocated for thoroughly testing these potential varietal candidates. We compared conventional phenotypic selection with various genomic selection approaches across multiple years as well as the merit of integrating phenotypic information from preliminary yield trials into the genomic selection framework. The prediction accuracy using only phenotypic data was rather low (r = 0.21) for grain yield but could be improved by modeling genetic relationships in unreplicated preliminary yield trials (r = 0.33). Genomic selection models were nevertheless found to be superior to conventional phenotypic selection for predicting grain yield performance of lines across years (r = 0.39). We subsequently simplified the problem of predicting untested lines in untested years to predicting tested lines in untested years by combining breeding values from preliminary yield trials and predictions from genomic selection models by a heritability index. This genomic assisted selection led to a 20% increase in prediction accuracy, which could be further enhanced by an appropriate marker selection for both grain yield (r = 0.48) and protein content (r = 0.63). The easy to implement and robust genomic assisted selection gave thus a higher prediction accuracy than either conventional phenotypic or genomic selection alone. The proposed method took the complex inheritance of both low and high heritable traits into account and appears capable to support breeders in their selection decisions to develop enhanced varieties more efficiently.

BIG DATA ANALYTICS AND PRECISION ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SYMPOSIUM: Data to decisions.

PubMed

White, B J; Amrine, D E; Larson, R L

2018-04-14

Big data are frequently used in many facets of business and agronomy to enhance knowledge needed to improve operational decisions. Livestock operations collect data of sufficient quantity to perform predictive analytics. Predictive analytics can be defined as a methodology and suite of data evaluation techniques to generate a prediction for specific target outcomes. The objective of this manuscript is to describe the process of using big data and the predictive analytic framework to create tools to drive decisions in livestock production, health, and welfare. The predictive analytic process involves selecting a target variable, managing the data, partitioning the data, then creating algorithms, refining algorithms, and finally comparing accuracy of the created classifiers. The partitioning of the datasets allows model building and refining to occur prior to testing the predictive accuracy of the model with naive data to evaluate overall accuracy. Many different classification algorithms are available for predictive use and testing multiple algorithms can lead to optimal results. Application of a systematic process for predictive analytics using data that is currently collected or that could be collected on livestock operations will facilitate precision animal management through enhanced livestock operational decisions.

Biochemical interpretation of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) for biodegradation of N-heterocycles: a complementary approach to predict biodegradability.

PubMed

Philipp, Bodo; Hoff, Malte; Germa, Florence; Schink, Bernhard; Beimborn, Dieter; Mersch-Sundermann, Volker

2007-02-15

Prediction of the biodegradability of organic compounds is an ecologically desirable and economically feasible tool for estimating the environmental fate of chemicals. We combined quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) with the systematic collection of biochemical knowledge to establish rules for the prediction of aerobic biodegradation of N-heterocycles. Validated biodegradation data of 194 N-heterocyclic compounds were analyzed using the MULTICASE-method which delivered two QSAR models based on 17 activating (OSAR 1) and on 16 inactivating molecular fragments (GSAR 2), which were statistically significantly linked to efficient or poor biodegradability, respectively. The percentages of correct classifications were over 99% for both models, and cross-validation resulted in 67.9% (GSAR 1) and 70.4% (OSAR 2) correct predictions. Biochemical interpretation of the activating and inactivating characteristics of the molecular fragments delivered plausible mechanistic interpretations and enabled us to establish the following biodegradation rules: (1) Target sites for amidohydrolases and for cytochrome P450 monooxygenases enhance biodegradation of nonaromatic N-heterocycles. (2) Target sites for molybdenum hydroxylases enhance biodegradation of aromatic N-heterocycles. (3) Target sites for hydratation by an urocanase-like mechanism enhance biodegradation of imidazoles. Our complementary approach represents a feasible strategy for generating concrete rules for the prediction of biodegradability of organic compounds.

Cognitive emotion regulation enhances aversive prediction error activity while reducing emotional responses.

PubMed

Mulej Bratec, Satja; Xie, Xiyao; Schmid, Gabriele; Doll, Anselm; Schilbach, Leonhard; Zimmer, Claus; Wohlschläger, Afra; Riedl, Valentin; Sorg, Christian

2015-12-01

Cognitive emotion regulation is a powerful way of modulating emotional responses. However, despite the vital role of emotions in learning, it is unknown whether the effect of cognitive emotion regulation also extends to the modulation of learning. Computational models indicate prediction error activity, typically observed in the striatum and ventral tegmental area, as a critical neural mechanism involved in associative learning. We used model-based fMRI during aversive conditioning with and without cognitive emotion regulation to test the hypothesis that emotion regulation would affect prediction error-related neural activity in the striatum and ventral tegmental area, reflecting an emotion regulation-related modulation of learning. Our results show that cognitive emotion regulation reduced emotion-related brain activity, but increased prediction error-related activity in a network involving ventral tegmental area, hippocampus, insula and ventral striatum. While the reduction of response activity was related to behavioral measures of emotion regulation success, the enhancement of prediction error-related neural activity was related to learning performance. Furthermore, functional connectivity between the ventral tegmental area and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, an area involved in regulation, was specifically increased during emotion regulation and likewise related to learning performance. Our data, therefore, provide first-time evidence that beyond reducing emotional responses, cognitive emotion regulation affects learning by enhancing prediction error-related activity, potentially via tegmental dopaminergic pathways. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved Fuzzy Modelling to Predict the Academic Performance of Distance Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildiz, Osman; Bal, Abdullah; Gulsecen, Sevinc

2013-01-01

It is essential to predict distance education students' year-end academic performance early during the course of the semester and to take precautions using such prediction-based information. This will, in particular, help enhance their academic performance and, therefore, improve the overall educational quality. The present study was on the…

Statistical prediction of space motion sickness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reschke, Millard F.

1990-01-01

Studies designed to empirically examine the etiology of motion sickness to develop a foundation for enhancing its prediction are discussed. Topics addressed include early attempts to predict space motion sickness, multiple test data base that uses provocative and vestibular function tests, and data base subjects; reliability of provocative tests of motion sickness susceptibility; prediction of space motion sickness using linear discriminate analysis; and prediction of space motion sickness susceptibility using the logistic model.

Evaluation of the phototoxicity of unsubstituted and alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to mysid shrimp (Americamysis bahia): Validation of predictive models.

PubMed

Finch, Bryson E; Marzooghi, Solmaz; Di Toro, Dominic M; Stubblefield, William A

2017-08-01

Crude oils are composed of an assortment of hydrocarbons, some of which are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are of particular interest due to their narcotic and potential phototoxic effects. Several studies have examined the phototoxicity of individual PAHs and fresh and weathered crude oils, and several models have been developed to predict PAH toxicity. Fingerprint analyses of oils have shown that PAHs in crude oils are predominantly alkylated. However, current models for estimating PAH phototoxicity assume toxic equivalence between unsubstituted (i.e., parent) and alkyl-substituted compounds. This approach may be incorrect if substantial differences in toxic potency exist between unsubstituted and substituted PAHs. The objective of the present study was to examine the narcotic and photo-enhanced toxicity of commercially available unsubstituted and alkylated PAHs to mysid shrimp (Americamysis bahia). Data were used to validate predictive models of phototoxicity based on the highest occupied molecular orbital-lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (HOMO-LUMO) gap approach and to develop relative effect potencies. Results demonstrated that photo-enhanced toxicity increased with increasing methylation and that phototoxic PAH potencies vary significantly among unsubstituted compounds. Overall, predictive models based on the HOMO-LUMO gap were relatively accurate in predicting phototoxicity for unsubstituted PAHs but are limited to qualitative assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2043-2049. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigmond, M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Kharin, V. V.; Shepherd, T. G.

2013-02-01

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Probability-based collaborative filtering model for predicting gene-disease associations.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiangxiang; Ding, Ningxiang; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso; Zou, Quan

2017-12-28

Accurately predicting pathogenic human genes has been challenging in recent research. Considering extensive gene-disease data verified by biological experiments, we can apply computational methods to perform accurate predictions with reduced time and expenses. We propose a probability-based collaborative filtering model (PCFM) to predict pathogenic human genes. Several kinds of data sets, containing data of humans and data of other nonhuman species, are integrated in our model. Firstly, on the basis of a typical latent factorization model, we propose model I with an average heterogeneous regularization. Secondly, we develop modified model II with personal heterogeneous regularization to enhance the accuracy of aforementioned models. In this model, vector space similarity or Pearson correlation coefficient metrics and data on related species are also used. We compared the results of PCFM with the results of four state-of-arts approaches. The results show that PCFM performs better than other advanced approaches. PCFM model can be leveraged for predictions of disease genes, especially for new human genes or diseases with no known relationships.

Predicting Mouse Liver Microsomal Stability with “Pruned” Machine Learning Models and Public Data

PubMed Central

Perryman, Alexander L.; Stratton, Thomas P.; Ekins, Sean; Freundlich, Joel S.

2015-01-01

Purpose Mouse efficacy studies are a critical hurdle to advance translational research of potential therapeutic compounds for many diseases. Although mouse liver microsomal (MLM) stability studies are not a perfect surrogate for in vivo studies of metabolic clearance, they are the initial model system used to assess metabolic stability. Consequently, we explored the development of machine learning models that can enhance the probability of identifying compounds possessing MLM stability. Methods Published assays on MLM half-life values were identified in PubChem, reformatted, and curated to create a training set with 894 unique small molecules. These data were used to construct machine learning models assessed with internal cross-validation, external tests with a published set of antitubercular compounds, and independent validation with an additional diverse set of 571 compounds (PubChem data on percent metabolism). Results “Pruning” out the moderately unstable/moderately stable compounds from the training set produced models with superior predictive power. Bayesian models displayed the best predictive power for identifying compounds with a half-life ≥1 hour. Conclusions Our results suggest the pruning strategy may be of general benefit to improve test set enrichment and provide machine learning models with enhanced predictive value for the MLM stability of small organic molecules. This study represents the most exhaustive study to date of using machine learning approaches with MLM data from public sources. PMID:26415647

Predicting Mouse Liver Microsomal Stability with "Pruned" Machine Learning Models and Public Data.

PubMed

Perryman, Alexander L; Stratton, Thomas P; Ekins, Sean; Freundlich, Joel S

2016-02-01

Mouse efficacy studies are a critical hurdle to advance translational research of potential therapeutic compounds for many diseases. Although mouse liver microsomal (MLM) stability studies are not a perfect surrogate for in vivo studies of metabolic clearance, they are the initial model system used to assess metabolic stability. Consequently, we explored the development of machine learning models that can enhance the probability of identifying compounds possessing MLM stability. Published assays on MLM half-life values were identified in PubChem, reformatted, and curated to create a training set with 894 unique small molecules. These data were used to construct machine learning models assessed with internal cross-validation, external tests with a published set of antitubercular compounds, and independent validation with an additional diverse set of 571 compounds (PubChem data on percent metabolism). "Pruning" out the moderately unstable / moderately stable compounds from the training set produced models with superior predictive power. Bayesian models displayed the best predictive power for identifying compounds with a half-life ≥1 h. Our results suggest the pruning strategy may be of general benefit to improve test set enrichment and provide machine learning models with enhanced predictive value for the MLM stability of small organic molecules. This study represents the most exhaustive study to date of using machine learning approaches with MLM data from public sources.

Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

Study on dependence of dose enhancement on cluster morphology of gold nanoparticles in radiation therapy using a body-centred cubic model.

PubMed

Ahn, Sang Hee; Chung, Kwangzoo; Shin, Jung Wook; Cheon, Wonjoong; Han, Youngyih; Park, Hee Chul; Choi, Doo Ho

2017-09-15

Gold nanoparticles (GNPs) injected in a body for dose enhancement in radiation therapy are known to form clusters. We investigated the dependence of dose enhancement on the GNP morphology using Monte-Carlo simulations and compared the model predictions with experimental data. The cluster morphology was approximated as a body-centred cubic (BCC) structure by placing GNPs at the 8 corners and the centre of a cube with an edge length of 0.22-1.03 µm in a 4  ×  4  ×  4 µm 3 water-filled phantom. We computed the dose enhancement ratio (DER) for 50 and 260 kVp photons as a function of the distance from the cube centre for 12 different cube sizes. A 10 nm-wide concentric shell shaped detector was placed up to 100 nm away from a GNP at the cube centre. For model validation, simulations based on BCC and nanoparticle random distribution (NRD) models were performed using parameters that corresponded to the experimental conditions, which measured increases in the relative biological effect due to GNPs. We employed the linear quadratic model to compute cell surviving fraction (SF) and sensitizer enhancement ratio (SER). The DER is inversely proportional to the distance to the GNPs. The largest DERs were 1.97 and 1.80 for 50 kVp and 260 kVp photons, respectively. The SF predicted by the BCC model agreed with the experimental value within 10%, up to a 5 Gy dose, while the NRD model showed a deviation larger than 10%. The SERs were 1.21  ±  0.13, 1.16  ±  0.11, and 1.08  ±  0.11 according to the experiment, BCC, and NRD models, respectively. We most accurately predicted the GNP radiosensitization effect using the BCC approximation and suggest that the BCC model is effective for use in nanoparticle dosimetry.

Study on dependence of dose enhancement on cluster morphology of gold nanoparticles in radiation therapy using a body-centred cubic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Sang Hee; Chung, Kwangzoo; Shin, Jung Wook; Cheon, Wonjoong; Han, Youngyih; Park, Hee Chul; Choi, Doo Ho

2017-10-01

Gold nanoparticles (GNPs) injected in a body for dose enhancement in radiation therapy are known to form clusters. We investigated the dependence of dose enhancement on the GNP morphology using Monte-Carlo simulations and compared the model predictions with experimental data. The cluster morphology was approximated as a body-centred cubic (BCC) structure by placing GNPs at the 8 corners and the centre of a cube with an edge length of 0.22-1.03 µm in a 4  ×  4  ×  4 µm3 water-filled phantom. We computed the dose enhancement ratio (DER) for 50 and 260 kVp photons as a function of the distance from the cube centre for 12 different cube sizes. A 10 nm-wide concentric shell shaped detector was placed up to 100 nm away from a GNP at the cube centre. For model validation, simulations based on BCC and nanoparticle random distribution (NRD) models were performed using parameters that corresponded to the experimental conditions, which measured increases in the relative biological effect due to GNPs. We employed the linear quadratic model to compute cell surviving fraction (SF) and sensitizer enhancement ratio (SER). The DER is inversely proportional to the distance to the GNPs. The largest DERs were 1.97 and 1.80 for 50 kVp and 260 kVp photons, respectively. The SF predicted by the BCC model agreed with the experimental value within 10%, up to a 5 Gy dose, while the NRD model showed a deviation larger than 10%. The SERs were 1.21  ±  0.13, 1.16  ±  0.11, and 1.08  ±  0.11 according to the experiment, BCC, and NRD models, respectively. We most accurately predicted the GNP radiosensitization effect using the BCC approximation and suggest that the BCC model is effective for use in nanoparticle dosimetry.

Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen

2014-10-01

In early summer (May-June, MJ) the strongest rainfall belt of the northern hemisphere occurs over the East Asian (EA) subtropical front. During this period the South China (SC) rainfall reaches its annual peak and represents the maximum rainfall variability over EA. Hence we establish an SC rainfall index, which is the MJ mean precipitation averaged over 72 stations over SC (south of 28°N and east of 110°E) and represents superbly the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of MJ precipitation variability over EA. In order to predict SC rainfall, we established a physical-empirical model. Analysis of 34-year observations (1979-2012) reveals three physically consequential predictors. A plentiful SC rainfall is preceded in the previous winter by (a) a dipole sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (b) a tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic Ocean, and (c) a warming tendency in northern Asia. These precursors foreshadow enhanced Philippine Sea subtropical High and Okhotsk High in early summer, which are controlling factors for enhanced subtropical frontal rainfall. The physical empirical model built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated forecast correlation skill of 0.75 for 1979-2012. Surprisingly, this skill is substantially higher than four-dynamical models' ensemble prediction for 1979-2010 period (0.15). The results here suggest that the low prediction skill of current dynamical models is largely due to models' deficiency and the dynamical prediction has large room to improve.

Patient-Specific Computational Modeling of Upper Extremity Arteriovenous Fistula Creation: Its Feasibility to Support Clinical Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Bosboom, E. Marielle H.; Kroon, Wilco; van der Linden, Wim P. M.; Planken, R. Nils; van de Vosse, Frans N.; Tordoir, Jan H. M.

2012-01-01

Introduction Inadequate flow enhancement on the one hand, and excessive flow enhancement on the other hand, remain frequent complications of arteriovenous fistula (AVF) creation, and hamper hemodialysis therapy in patients with end-stage renal disease. In an effort to reduce these, a patient-specific computational model, capable of predicting postoperative flow, has been developed. The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of the patient-specific model and to investigate its feasibility to support decision-making in AVF surgery. Methods Patient-specific pulse wave propagation models were created for 25 patients awaiting AVF creation. Model input parameters were obtained from clinical measurements and literature. For every patient, a radiocephalic AVF, a brachiocephalic AVF, and a brachiobasilic AVF configuration were simulated and analyzed for their postoperative flow. The most distal configuration with a predicted flow between 400 and 1500 ml/min was considered the preferred location for AVF surgery. The suggestion of the model was compared to the choice of an experienced vascular surgeon. Furthermore, predicted flows were compared to measured postoperative flows. Results Taken into account the confidence interval (25th and 75th percentile interval), overlap between predicted and measured postoperative flows was observed in 70% of the patients. Differentiation between upper and lower arm configuration was similar in 76% of the patients, whereas discrimination between two upper arm AVF configurations was more difficult. In 3 patients the surgeon created an upper arm AVF, while model based predictions allowed for lower arm AVF creation, thereby preserving proximal vessels. In one patient early thrombosis in a radiocephalic AVF was observed which might have been indicated by the low predicted postoperative flow. Conclusions Postoperative flow can be predicted relatively accurately for multiple AVF configurations by using computational modeling. This model may therefore be considered a valuable additional tool in the preoperative work-up of patients awaiting AVF creation. PMID:22496816

Modeling and simulation of enhancement mode p-GaN Gate AlGaN/GaN HEMT for RF circuit switch applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, D. K.; Lenka, T. R.

2017-06-01

An enhancement mode p-GaN gate AlGaN/GaN HEMT is proposed and a physics based virtual source charge model with Landauer approach for electron transport has been developed using Verilog-A and simulated using Cadence Spectre, in order to predict device characteristics such as threshold voltage, drain current and gate capacitance. The drain current model incorporates important physical effects such as velocity saturation, short channel effects like DIBL (drain induced barrier lowering), channel length modulation (CLM), and mobility degradation due to self-heating. The predicted I d-V ds, I d-V gs, and C-V characteristics show an excellent agreement with the experimental data for both drain current and capacitance which validate the model. The developed model was then utilized to design and simulate a single-pole single-throw (SPST) RF switch.

Modeling and optimization of fermentation variables for enhanced production of lactase by isolated Bacillus subtilis strain VUVD001 using artificial neural networking and response surface methodology.

PubMed

Venkateswarulu, T C; Prabhakar, K Vidya; Kumar, R Bharath; Krupanidhi, S

2017-07-01

Modeling and optimization were performed to enhance production of lactase through submerged fermentation by Bacillus subtilis VUVD001 using artificial neural networks (ANN) and response surface methodology (RSM). The effect of process parameters namely temperature (°C), pH, and incubation time (h) and their combinational interactions on production was studied in shake flask culture by Box-Behnken design. The model was validated by conducting an experiment at optimized process variables which gave the maximum lactase activity of 91.32 U/ml. Compared to traditional activity, 3.48-folds improved production was obtained after RSM optimization. This study clearly shows that both RSM and ANN models provided desired predictions. However, compared with RSM (R 2  = 0.9496), the ANN model (R 2  = 0.99456) gave a better prediction for the production of lactase.

Hierarchical multi-scale approach to validation and uncertainty quantification of hyper-spectral image modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Dave W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.; Graff, David L.; Thompson, Sandra E.

2016-05-01

Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensor level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.

A dynamical systems model for combinatorial cancer therapy enhances oncolytic adenovirus efficacy by MEK-inhibition.

PubMed

Bagheri, Neda; Shiina, Marisa; Lauffenburger, Douglas A; Korn, W Michael

2011-02-01

Oncolytic adenoviruses, such as ONYX-015, have been tested in clinical trials for currently untreatable tumors, but have yet to demonstrate adequate therapeutic efficacy. The extent to which viruses infect targeted cells determines the efficacy of this approach but many tumors down-regulate the Coxsackievirus and Adenovirus Receptor (CAR), rendering them less susceptible to infection. Disrupting MAPK pathway signaling by pharmacological inhibition of MEK up-regulates CAR expression, offering possible enhanced adenovirus infection. MEK inhibition, however, interferes with adenovirus replication due to resulting G1-phase cell cycle arrest. Therefore, enhanced efficacy will depend on treatment protocols that productively balance these competing effects. Predictive understanding of how to attain and enhance therapeutic efficacy of combinatorial treatment is difficult since the effects of MEK inhibitors, in conjunction with adenovirus/cell interactions, are complex nonlinear dynamic processes. We investigated combinatorial treatment strategies using a mathematical model that predicts the impact of MEK inhibition on tumor cell proliferation, ONYX-015 infection, and oncolysis. Specifically, we fit a nonlinear differential equation system to dedicated experimental data and analyzed the resulting simulations for favorable treatment strategies. Simulations predicted enhanced combinatorial therapy when both treatments were applied simultaneously; we successfully validated these predictions in an ensuing explicit test study. Further analysis revealed that a CAR-independent mechanism may be responsible for amplified virus production and cell death. We conclude that integrated computational and experimental analysis of combinatorial therapy provides a useful means to identify treatment/infection protocols that yield clinically significant oncolysis. Enhanced oncolytic therapy has the potential to dramatically improve non-surgical cancer treatment, especially in locally advanced or metastatic cases where treatment options remain limited.

Aortic Wall Inflammation Predicts Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Expansion, Rupture, and Need for Surgical Repair.

PubMed

2017-08-29

Ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) detect cellular inflammation on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm, we assessed whether USPIO-enhanced MRI can predict aneurysm growth rates and clinical outcomes. In a prospective multicenter open-label cohort study, 342 patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (diameter ≥40 mm) were classified by the presence of USPIO enhancement and were monitored with serial ultrasound and clinical follow-up for ≥2 years. The primary end point was the composite of aneurysm rupture or repair. Participants (85% male, 73.1±7.2 years) had a baseline aneurysm diameter of 49.6±7.7 mm, and USPIO enhancement was identified in 146 (42.7%) participants, absent in 191 (55.8%), and indeterminant in 5 (1.5%). During follow-up (1005±280 days), 17 (5.0%) abdominal aortic aneurysm ruptures, 126 (36.8%) abdominal aortic aneurysm repairs, and 48 (14.0%) deaths occurred. Compared with those without uptake, patients with USPIO enhancement have increased rates of aneurysm expansion (3.1±2.5 versus 2.5±2.4 mm/year, P =0.0424), although this was not independent of current smoking habit ( P =0.1993). Patients with USPIO enhancement had higher rates of aneurysm rupture or repair (47.3% versus 35.6%; 95% confidence intervals, 1.1-22.2; P =0.0308). This finding was similar for each component of rupture (6.8% versus 3.7%, P =0.1857) or repair (41.8% versus 32.5%, P =0.0782). USPIO enhancement was associated with reduced event-free survival for aneurysm rupture or repair ( P =0.0275), all-cause mortality ( P =0.0635), and aneurysm-related mortality ( P =0.0590). Baseline abdominal aortic aneurysm diameter ( P <0.0001) and current smoking habit ( P =0.0446) also predicted the primary outcome, and the addition of USPIO enhancement to the multivariate model did not improve event prediction (c-statistic, 0.7935-0.7936). USPIO-enhanced MRI is a novel approach to the identification of aortic wall cellular inflammation in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms and predicts the rate of aneurysm growth and clinical outcome. However, it does not provide independent prediction of aneurysm expansion or clinical outcomes in a model incorporating known clinical risk factors. URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN76413758. © 2017 The Authors.

Nonlinear predictive control for durability enhancement and efficiency improvement in a fuel cell power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Julio; Jemei, Samir; Yousfi-Steiner, Nadia; Husar, Attila; Serra, Maria; Hissel, Daniel

2016-10-01

In this work, a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) strategy is proposed to improve the efficiency and enhance the durability of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) power system. The PEMFC controller is based on a distributed parameters model that describes the nonlinear dynamics of the system, considering spatial variations along the gas channels. Parasitic power from different system auxiliaries is considered, including the main parasitic losses which are those of the compressor. A nonlinear observer is implemented, based on the discretised model of the PEMFC, to estimate the internal states. This information is included in the cost function of the controller to enhance the durability of the system by means of avoiding local starvation and inappropriate water vapour concentrations. Simulation results are presented to show the performance of the proposed controller over a given case study in an automotive application (New European Driving Cycle). With the aim of representing the most relevant phenomena that affects the PEMFC voltage, the simulation model includes a two-phase water model and the effects of liquid water on the catalyst active area. The control model is a simplified version that does not consider two-phase water dynamics.

Effects of Long Period Ocean Tides on the Earth's Rotation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Richard S.; Chao, Ben F.; Desai, Shailen D.

1996-01-01

The spectra of polar motion excitation functions exhibit enhanced power in the fortnightly tidal band. This enhanced power is attributed to ocean tidal excitation. Ocean tide models predict polar motion excitation effects that differ with each other, and with observations, by factors as large as 2-3. There is a need for inproved models for the effect of long-period ocean tides on Earth's rotation.

Validation of urban freeway models. [supporting datasets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

The goal of the SHRP 2 Project L33 Validation of Urban Freeway Models was to assess and enhance the predictive travel time reliability models developed in the SHRP 2 Project L03, Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigati...

From QSAR to QSIIR: Searching for Enhanced Computational Toxicology Models

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hao

2017-01-01

Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) is the most frequently used modeling approach to explore the dependency of biological, toxicological, or other types of activities/properties of chemicals on their molecular features. In the past two decades, QSAR modeling has been used extensively in drug discovery process. However, the predictive models resulted from QSAR studies have limited use for chemical risk assessment, especially for animal and human toxicity evaluations, due to the low predictivity of new compounds. To develop enhanced toxicity models with independently validated external prediction power, novel modeling protocols were pursued by computational toxicologists based on rapidly increasing toxicity testing data in recent years. This chapter reviews the recent effort in our laboratory to incorporate the biological testing results as descriptors in the toxicity modeling process. This effort extended the concept of QSAR to Quantitative Structure In vitro-In vivo Relationship (QSIIR). The QSIIR study examples provided in this chapter indicate that the QSIIR models that based on the hybrid (biological and chemical) descriptors are indeed superior to the conventional QSAR models that only based on chemical descriptors for several animal toxicity endpoints. We believe that the applications introduced in this review will be of interest and value to researchers working in the field of computational drug discovery and environmental chemical risk assessment. PMID:23086837

A hybrid intelligent method for three-dimensional short-term prediction of dissolved oxygen content in aquaculture

PubMed Central

Yu, Huihui; Cheng, Yanjun; Cheng, Qianqian; Li, Daoliang

2018-01-01

A precise predictive model is important for obtaining a clear understanding of the changes in dissolved oxygen content in crab ponds. Highly accurate interval forecasting of dissolved oxygen content is fundamental to reduce risk, and three-dimensional prediction can provide more accurate results and overall guidance. In this study, a hybrid three-dimensional (3D) dissolved oxygen content prediction model based on a radial basis function (RBF) neural network, K-means and subtractive clustering was developed and named the subtractive clustering (SC)-K-means-RBF model. In this modeling process, K-means and subtractive clustering methods were employed to enhance the hyperparameters required in the RBF neural network model. The comparison of the predicted results of different traditional models validated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid SC-K-means-RBF model for three-dimensional prediction of dissolved oxygen content. Consequently, the proposed model can effectively display the three-dimensional distribution of dissolved oxygen content and serve as a guide for feeding and future studies. PMID:29466394

Cost prediction model for various payloads and instruments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, F. E.

1984-01-01

The following cost parameters of the space shuttle were undertaken: (1) to develop a cost prediction model for various payload classes of instruments and experiments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; and (2) to show the implications of various payload classes on the cost of: reliability analysis, quality assurance, environmental design requirements, documentation, parts selection, and other reliability enhancing activities.

RF model of the distribution system as a communication channel, phase 2. Volume 2: Task reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rustay, R. C.; Gajjar, J. T.; Rankin, R. W.; Wentz, R. C.; Wooding, R.

1982-01-01

Based on the established feasibility of predicting, via a model, the propagation of Power Line Frequency on radial type distribution feeders, verification studies comparing model predictions against measurements were undertaken using more complicated feeder circuits and situations. Detailed accounts of the major tasks are presented. These include: (1) verification of model; (2) extension, implementation, and verification of perturbation theory; (3) parameter sensitivity; (4) transformer modeling; and (5) compensation of power distribution systems for enhancement of power line carrier communication reliability.

Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends

PubMed Central

Jin, Yuan; Huang, Yong; Lin, Baihan; An, Xiaoping; Feng, Dan; Tong, Yigang

2017-01-01

We developed a dynamic forecasting model for Zika virus (ZIKV), based on real-time online search data from Google Trends (GTs). It was designed to provide Zika virus disease (ZVD) surveillance and detection for Health Departments, and predictive numbers of infection cases, which would allow them sufficient time to implement interventions. In this study, we found a strong correlation between Zika-related GTs and the cumulative numbers of reported cases (confirmed, suspected and total cases; p<0.001). Then, we used the correlation data from Zika-related online search in GTs and ZIKV epidemics between 12 February and 20 October 2016 to construct an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (0, 1, 3) for the dynamic estimation of ZIKV outbreaks. The forecasting results indicated that the predicted data by ARIMA model, which used the online search data as the external regressor to enhance the forecasting model and assist the historical epidemic data in improving the quality of the predictions, are quite similar to the actual data during ZIKV epidemic early November 2016. Integer-valued autoregression provides a useful base predictive model for ZVD cases. This is enhanced by the incorporation of GTs data, confirming the prognostic utility of search query based surveillance. This accessible and flexible dynamic forecast model could be used in the monitoring of ZVD to provide advanced warning of future ZIKV outbreaks. PMID:28060809

Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends.

PubMed

Teng, Yue; Bi, Dehua; Xie, Guigang; Jin, Yuan; Huang, Yong; Lin, Baihan; An, Xiaoping; Feng, Dan; Tong, Yigang

2017-01-01

We developed a dynamic forecasting model for Zika virus (ZIKV), based on real-time online search data from Google Trends (GTs). It was designed to provide Zika virus disease (ZVD) surveillance and detection for Health Departments, and predictive numbers of infection cases, which would allow them sufficient time to implement interventions. In this study, we found a strong correlation between Zika-related GTs and the cumulative numbers of reported cases (confirmed, suspected and total cases; p<0.001). Then, we used the correlation data from Zika-related online search in GTs and ZIKV epidemics between 12 February and 20 October 2016 to construct an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (0, 1, 3) for the dynamic estimation of ZIKV outbreaks. The forecasting results indicated that the predicted data by ARIMA model, which used the online search data as the external regressor to enhance the forecasting model and assist the historical epidemic data in improving the quality of the predictions, are quite similar to the actual data during ZIKV epidemic early November 2016. Integer-valued autoregression provides a useful base predictive model for ZVD cases. This is enhanced by the incorporation of GTs data, confirming the prognostic utility of search query based surveillance. This accessible and flexible dynamic forecast model could be used in the monitoring of ZVD to provide advanced warning of future ZIKV outbreaks.

Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and the Sea Ice Prediction Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiggins, H. V.; Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

Drastic reductions in Arctic sea ice cover have increased the demand for Arctic sea ice predictions by a range of stakeholders, including local communities, resource managers, industry and the public. The science of sea-ice prediction has been challenged to keep up with these developments. Efforts such as the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO; http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook) and the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook have provided a forum for the international sea-ice prediction and observing community to explore and compare different approaches. The SIO, originally organized by the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH), is now managed by the new Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), which is building a collaborative network of scientists and stakeholders to improve arctic sea ice prediction. The SIO synthesizes predictions from a variety of methods, including heuristic and from a statistical and/or dynamical model. In a recent study, SIO data from 2008 to 2013 were analyzed. The analysis revealed that in some years the predictions were very successful, in other years they were not. Years that were anomalous compared to the long-term trend have proven more difficult to predict, regardless of which method was employed. This year, in response to feedback from users and contributors to the SIO, several enhancements have been made to the SIO reports. One is to encourage contributors to provide spatial probability maps of sea ice cover in September and the first day each location becomes ice-free; these are an example of subseasonal to seasonal, local-scale predictions. Another enhancement is a separate analysis of the modeling contributions. In the June 2014 SIO report, 10 of 28 outlooks were produced from models that explicitly simulate sea ice from dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models. Half of the models included fully-coupled (atmosphere, ice, and ocean) models that additionally employ data assimilation. Both of these subsets (models and coupled models with data assimilation) have a far narrower spread in their prediction, indicating that the results of these more sophisticated methods are converging. Here we summarize and synthesize the 2014 contributions to the SIO, highlight the important questions and challenges that remain to be addressed, and present data on stakeholder uses of the SIO and related SIPN products.

The Addicted-Self Model of addictive behavior cessation: does it predict recovery for gender, ethnic, age and drug preference populations?

PubMed

Fiorentine, Robert; Hillhouse, Maureen P

2004-01-01

Although previous research provided empirical support for the main assumptions of the Addicted-Self (A-S) Model of recovery, it is not known whether the model predicts recovery for various gender, ethnic, age, and drug preference populations. It may be that the model predicts recovery only for some groups of addicts and should not be viewed as a general theory of the recovery process. Addressing this concern using data from the Los Angeles Target Cities Drug Treatment Enhancement Project, it was determined that only trivial population differences exist in the primary variables associated with the A-S Model. The A-S Model predicts abstinence with about the same degree of accuracy and parsimony for all populations. The findings indicate that the A-S Model is a general theory of drug and alcohol addictive behavior cessation.

Environment enhanced fatigue crack propagation in metals: Inputs to fracture mechanics life prediction models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangloff, Richard P.; Kim, Sang-Shik

1993-01-01

This report is a critical review of both environment-enhanced fatigue crack propagation data and the predictive capabilities of crack growth rate models. This information provides the necessary foundation for incorporating environmental effects in NASA FLAGRO and will better enable predictions of aerospace component fatigue lives. The review presents extensive literature data on 'stress corrosion cracking and corrosion fatigue.' The linear elastic fracture mechanics approach, based on stress intensity range (Delta(K)) similitude with microscopic crack propagation threshold and growth rates, provides a basis for these data. Results are presented showing enhanced growth rates for gases (viz., H2 and H2O) and electrolytes (e.g. NaCl and H2O) in aerospace alloys including: C-Mn and heat treated alloy steels, aluminum alloys, nickel-based superalloys, and titanium alloys. Environment causes purely time-dependent accelerated fatigue crack growth above the monotonic load cracking threshold (KIEAC) and promotes cycle-time dependent cracking below (KIEAC). These phenomenon are discussed in terms of hydrogen embrittlement, dissolution, and film rupture crack tip damage mechanisms.

Seasonal-to-decadal predictability in the Nordic Seas and Arctic with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Counillon, Francois; Kimmritz, Madlen; Keenlyside, Noel; Wang, Yiguo; Bethke, Ingo

2017-04-01

The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model combines the Norwegian Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method. The prediction skills of different versions of the system (with 30 members) are tested in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic region. Comparing the hindcasts branched from a SST-only assimilation run with a free ensemble run of 30 members, we are able to dissociate the predictability rooted in the external forcing from the predictability harvest from SST derived initial conditions. The latter adds predictability in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the Nordic Seas regions and overall there is very little degradation or forecast drift. Combined assimilation of SST and T-S profiles further improves the prediction skill in the Nordic Seas and into the Arctic. These lead to multi-year predictability in the high-latitudes. Ongoing developments of strongly coupled assimilation (ocean and sea ice) of ice concentration in idealized twin experiment will be shown, as way to further enhance prediction skill in the Arctic.

Electrohydrodynamic fibrillation governed enhanced thermal transport in dielectric colloids under a field stimulus.

PubMed

Dhar, Purbarun; Maganti, Lakshmi Sirisha; Harikrishnan, A R

2018-05-30

Electrorheological (ER) fluids are known to exhibit enhanced viscous effects under an electric field stimulus. The present article reports the hitherto unreported phenomenon of greatly enhanced thermal conductivity in such electro-active colloidal dispersions in the presence of an externally applied electric field. Typical ER fluids are synthesized employing dielectric fluids and nanoparticles and experiments are performed employing an in-house designed setup. Greatly augmented thermal conductivity under a field's influence was observed. Enhanced thermal conduction along the fibril structures under the field effect is theorized as the crux of the mechanism. The formation of fibril structures has also been experimentally verified employing microscopy. Based on classical models for ER fluids, a mathematical formalism has been developed to predict the propensity of chain formation and statistically feasible chain dynamics at given Mason numbers. Further, a thermal resistance network model is employed to computationally predict the enhanced thermal conduction across the fibrillary colloid microstructure. Good agreement between the mathematical model and the experimental observations is achieved. The domineering role of thermal conductivity over relative permittivity has been shown by proposing a modified Hashin-Shtrikman (HS) formalism. The findings have implications towards better physical understanding and design of ER fluids from both 'smart' viscoelastic as well as thermally active materials points of view.

Quantitative contrast-enhanced optical coherence tomography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winetraub, Yonatan; SoRelle, Elliott D.; Bio-X Program, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305

2016-01-11

We have developed a model to accurately quantify the signals produced by exogenous scattering agents used for contrast-enhanced Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT). This model predicts distinct concentration-dependent signal trends that arise from the underlying physics of OCT detection. Accordingly, we show that real scattering particles can be described as simplified ideal scatterers with modified scattering intensity and concentration. The relation between OCT signal and particle concentration is approximately linear at concentrations lower than 0.8 particle per imaging voxel. However, at higher concentrations, interference effects cause signal to increase with a square root dependence on the number of particles within amore » voxel. Finally, high particle concentrations cause enough light attenuation to saturate the detected signal. Predictions were validated by comparison with measured OCT signals from gold nanorods (GNRs) prepared in water at concentrations ranging over five orders of magnitude (50 fM to 5 nM). In addition, we validated that our model accurately predicts the signal responses of GNRs in highly heterogeneous scattering environments including whole blood and living animals. By enabling particle quantification, this work provides a valuable tool for current and future contrast-enhanced in vivo OCT studies. More generally, the model described herein may inform the interpretation of detected signals in modalities that rely on coherence-based detection or are susceptible to interference effects.« less

Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

Impact of representation of hydraulic structures in modelling a Severn barrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, Samuel; Ahmadian, Reza; Falconer, Roger A.

2016-04-01

In this study, enhancements to the numerical representation of sluice gates and turbines were made to the hydro-environmental model Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), and applied to the Severn Tidal Power Group Cardiff-Weston Barrage. The extended domain of the EFDC Continental Shelf Model (CSM) allows far-field hydrodynamic impact assessment of the Severn Barrage, pre- and post-enhancement, to demonstrate the importance of accurate hydraulic structure representation. The enhancements were found to significantly affect peak water levels in the Bristol Channel, reducing levels by nearly 1 m in some areas, and even affect predictions as far-field as the West Coast of Scotland, albeit to a far lesser extent. The model was tested for sensitivity to changes in the discharge coefficient, Cd, used in calculating discharge through sluice gates and turbines. It was found that the performance of the Severn Barrage is not sensitive to changes to the Cd value, and is mitigated through the continual, rather than instantaneous, discharge across the structure. The EFDC CSM can now be said to be more accurately predicting the impacts of tidal range proposals, and the investigation of sensitivity to Cd improves the confidence in the modelling results, despite the uncertainty in this coefficient.

Hierarchical Multi-Scale Approach To Validation and Uncertainty Quantification of Hyper-Spectral Image Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.

Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensormore » level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.« less

A productivity model for parasitized, multibrooded songbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, L.A.; Knutson, M.G.

2006-01-01

We present an enhancement of a simulation model to predict annual productivity for Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla); the model includes effects of Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism. We used species-specific data from the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa to parameterize the model as a case study. The simulation model predicted annual productivity of 2.03 ?? 1.60 SD for Wood Thrushes and 1.56 ?? 1.31 SD for American Redstarts. Our sensitivity analysis showed that high parasitism lowered Wood Thrush annual productivity more than American Redstart productivity, even though parasitism affected individual nests of redstarts more severely. Annual productivity predictions are valuable for habitat managers, but productivity is not easily obtained from field studies. Our model provides a useful means of integrating complex life history parameters to predict productivity for songbirds that experience nest parasitism. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Promises of Machine Learning Approaches in Prediction of Absorption of Compounds.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajnish; Sharma, Anju; Siddiqui, Mohammed Haris; Tiwari, Rajesh Kumar

2018-01-01

The Machine Learning (ML) is one of the fastest developing techniques in the prediction and evaluation of important pharmacokinetic properties such as absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion. The availability of a large number of robust validation techniques for prediction models devoted to pharmacokinetics has significantly enhanced the trust and authenticity in ML approaches. There is a series of prediction models generated and used for rapid screening of compounds on the basis of absorption in last one decade. Prediction of absorption of compounds using ML models has great potential across the pharmaceutical industry as a non-animal alternative to predict absorption. However, these prediction models still have to go far ahead to develop the confidence similar to conventional experimental methods for estimation of drug absorption. Some of the general concerns are selection of appropriate ML methods and validation techniques in addition to selecting relevant descriptors and authentic data sets for the generation of prediction models. The current review explores published models of ML for the prediction of absorption using physicochemical properties as descriptors and their important conclusions. In addition, some critical challenges in acceptance of ML models for absorption are also discussed. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Predictive Feedback and Feedforward Control for Systems with Unknown Disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, Jer-Nan; Eure, Kenneth W.

1998-01-01

Predictive feedback control has been successfully used in the regulation of plate vibrations when no reference signal is available for feedforward control. However, if a reference signal is available it may be used to enhance regulation by incorporating a feedforward path in the feedback controller. Such a controller is known as a hybrid controller. This paper presents the theory and implementation of the hybrid controller for general linear systems, in particular for structural vibration induced by acoustic noise. The generalized predictive control is extended to include a feedforward path in the multi-input multi-output case and implemented on a single-input single-output test plant to achieve plate vibration regulation. There are cases in acoustic-induce vibration where the disturbance signal is not available to be used by the hybrid controller, but a disturbance model is available. In this case the disturbance model may be used in the feedback controller to enhance performance. In practice, however, neither the disturbance signal nor the disturbance model is available. This paper presents the theory of identifying and incorporating the noise model into the feedback controller. Implementations are performed on a test plant and regulation improvements over the case where no noise model is used are demonstrated.

Correlation tracking study for meter-class solar telescope on space shuttle. [solar granulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smithson, R. C.; Tarbell, T. D.

1977-01-01

The theory and expected performance level of correlation trackers used to control the pointing of a solar telescope in space using white light granulation as a target were studied. Three specific trackers were modeled and their performance levels predicted for telescopes of various apertures. The performance of the computer model trackers on computer enhanced granulation photographs was evaluated. Parametric equations for predicting tracker performance are presented.

The Implementation and Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) at Cape Canaveral Air Station/Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Randolph J.; Tremback, Craig J.; Lyons, Walter A.

1996-01-01

The Emergency Response Dose Assessment System (ERDAS) is a system which combines the mesoscale meteorological prediction model RAMS with the diffusion models REEDM and HYPACT. Operators use a graphical user interface to run the models for emergency response and toxic hazard planning at CCAS/KCS. The Applied Meteorology Unit has been evaluating the ERDAS meteorological and diffusion models and obtained the following results: (1) RAMS adequately predicts the occurrence of the daily sea breeze during non-cloudy conditions for several cases. (2) RAMS shows a tendency to predict the sea breeze to occur slightly earlier and to move it further inland than observed. The sea breeze predictions could most likely be improved by better parameterizing the soil moisture and/or sea surface temperatures. (3) The HYPACT/REEDM/RAMS models accurately predict launch plume locations when RAMS winds are accurate and when the correct plume layer is modeled. (4) HYPACT does not adequately handle plume buoyancy for heated plumes since all plumes are presently treated as passive tracers. Enhancements should be incorporated into the ERDAS as it moves toward being a fully operational system and as computer workstations continue to increase in power and decrease in cost. These enhancements include the following: activate RAMS moisture physics; use finer RAMS grid resolution; add RAMS input parameters (e.g. soil moisture, radar, and/or satellite data); automate data quality control; implement four-dimensional data assimilation; modify HYPACT plume rise and deposition physics; and add cumulative dosage calculations in HYPACT.

Fast, scalable prediction of deleterious noncoding variants from functional and population genomic data.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Fei; Gulko, Brad; Siepel, Adam

2017-04-01

Many genetic variants that influence phenotypes of interest are located outside of protein-coding genes, yet existing methods for identifying such variants have poor predictive power. Here we introduce a new computational method, called LINSIGHT, that substantially improves the prediction of noncoding nucleotide sites at which mutations are likely to have deleterious fitness consequences, and which, therefore, are likely to be phenotypically important. LINSIGHT combines a generalized linear model for functional genomic data with a probabilistic model of molecular evolution. The method is fast and highly scalable, enabling it to exploit the 'big data' available in modern genomics. We show that LINSIGHT outperforms the best available methods in identifying human noncoding variants associated with inherited diseases. In addition, we apply LINSIGHT to an atlas of human enhancers and show that the fitness consequences at enhancers depend on cell type, tissue specificity, and constraints at associated promoters.

Current collection from the space plasma through defects in solar array insulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, R. S.; Stillwell, R. P.; Kaufman, H. R.

1985-01-01

Operating high-voltage solar arrays in the space environment can result in anomalously large currents being collected through small insulation defects. Tests simulating the electron collection have shown that there are two major collection modes. The first involves current enhancement by means of a surface phenomenon involving secondary electron emission from the surrounding insulator. In the second mode, the current collection is enhanced by vaporization and ionization of the insulator material, in addition to the surface enhancement of the first mode. The electron collection due to surface enhancement (first mode) has been modeled. Using this model, simple calculations yield realistic predictions.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Prediction of chemo-response in serous ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Gonzalez Bosquet, Jesus; Newtson, Andreea M; Chung, Rebecca K; Thiel, Kristina W; Ginader, Timothy; Goodheart, Michael J; Leslie, Kimberly K; Smith, Brian J

2016-10-19

Nearly one-third of serous ovarian cancer (OVCA) patients will not respond to initial treatment with surgery and chemotherapy and die within one year of diagnosis. If patients who are unlikely to respond to current standard therapy can be identified up front, enhanced tumor analyses and treatment regimens could potentially be offered. Using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) serous OVCA database, we previously identified a robust molecular signature of 422-genes associated with chemo-response. Our objective was to test whether this signature is an accurate and sensitive predictor of chemo-response in serous OVCA. We first constructed prediction models to predict chemo-response using our previously described 422-gene signature that was associated with response to treatment in serous OVCA. Performance of all prediction models were measured with area under the curves (AUCs, a measure of the model's accuracy) and their respective confidence intervals (CIs). To optimize the prediction process, we determined which elements of the signature most contributed to chemo-response prediction. All prediction models were replicated and validated using six publicly available independent gene expression datasets. The 422-gene signature prediction models predicted chemo-response with AUCs of ~70 %. Optimization of prediction models identified the 34 most important genes in chemo-response prediction. These 34-gene models had improved performance, with AUCs approaching 80 %. Both 422-gene and 34-gene prediction models were replicated and validated in six independent datasets. These prediction models serve as the foundation for the future development and implementation of a diagnostic tool to predict response to chemotherapy for serous OVCA patients.

A coupled diffusion-fluid pressure model to predict cell density distribution for cells encapsulated in a porous hydrogel scaffold under mechanical loading.

PubMed

Zhao, Feihu; Vaughan, Ted J; Mc Garrigle, Myles J; McNamara, Laoise M

2017-10-01

Tissue formation within tissue engineering (TE) scaffolds is preceded by growth of the cells throughout the scaffold volume and attachment of cells to the scaffold substrate. It is known that mechanical stimulation, in the form of fluid perfusion or mechanical strain, enhances cell differentiation and overall tissue formation. However, due to the complex multi-physics environment of cells within TE scaffolds, cell transport under mechanical stimulation is not fully understood. Therefore, in this study, we have developed a coupled multiphysics model to predict cell density distribution in a TE scaffold. In this model, cell transport is modelled as a thermal conduction process, which is driven by the pore fluid pressure under applied loading. As a case study, the model is investigated to predict the cell density patterns of pre-osteoblasts MC3T3-e1 cells under a range of different loading regimes, to obtain an understanding of desirable mechanical stimulation that will enhance cell density distribution within TE scaffolds. The results of this study have demonstrated that fluid perfusion can result in a higher cell density in the scaffold region closed to the outlet, while cell density distribution under mechanical compression was similar with static condition. More importantly, the study provides a novel computational approach to predict cell distribution in TE scaffolds under mechanical loading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

2016-04-01

A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and the India Meteorological Department precipitation dataset respectively for L3. Despite significant El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring predictability barrier at L3, the ISMR skill score is highest at L3. Further, large scale zonal wind shear (Webster-Yang index) and SST over Niño3.4 region is best at L1 and L0. This implies that predictability aspect of ISMR is controlled by factors other than ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole. Also, the model error (forecast error) outruns the error acquired by the inadequacies in the initial conditions (predictability error). Thus model deficiency is having more serious consequences as compared to the initial condition error for the seasonal forecast. All the model parameters show the increase in the predictability error as the lead decreases over the equatorial eastern Pacific basin and peaks at L2, then it further decreases. The dynamical consistency of both the forecast and the predictability error among all the variables indicates that these biases are purely systematic in nature and improvement of the physical processes in the CFSv2 may enhance the overall predictability.

Semianalytical model for the electromagnetic enhancement by a rectangular nanowire optical antenna on metallic substrate.

PubMed

Wan, Jianing; Zhu, Junda; Zhong, Ying; Liu, Haitao

2018-06-01

The electromagnetic enhancement by a metallic nanowire optical antenna on metallic substrate is investigated theoretically. By considering the excitation and multiple scattering of surface plasmon polaritons in the nanogap between the antenna and the substrate, we build up an intuitive and comprehensive model that provides semianalytical expressions for the electromagnetic field in the nanogap to achieve an understanding of the mechanism of electromagnetic enhancement. Our results show that antennas with short lengths that support the lowest order of resonance can achieve a high electric-field enhancement factor over a large range of incidence angles. Two phase-matching conditions are derived from the model for predicting the antenna lengths at resonance. Excitation of symmetric or antisymmetric localized surface plasmon resonance is further explained with the model. The model also shows superior computational efficiency compared to the full-wave numerical method when scanning the antenna length, the incidence angle, or the wavelength.

MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Lim, Y.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides the primary source of tropical and extratropical predictability on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. To better understand its predictability, this study conducts quantitative evaluation of MJO prediction skill in the state-of-the-art operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Based on bivariate correlation coefficient of 0.5, the S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill ranging from 12 to 36 days. These prediction skills are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, the latter becoming more important with forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, the MJO events with stronger initial amplitude are typically better predicted. However, essentially no sensitivity to the initial MJO phase is observed. Overall MJO prediction skill and its inter-model spread are further related with the model mean biases in moisture fields and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks. In most models, a dry bias quickly builds up in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent, weakening horizontal moisture gradient. This likely dampens the organization and propagation of MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelop. In general, the models with a smaller bias in horizontal moisture gradient and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks show a higher MJO prediction skill, suggesting that improving those processes would enhance MJO prediction skill.

Coupled lagged ensemble weather- and river runoff prediction in complex Alpine terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smiatek, Gerhard; Kunstmann, Harald; Werhahn, Johannes

2013-04-01

It is still a challenge to predict fast reacting streamflow precipitation response in Alpine terrain. Civil protection measures require flood prediction in 24 - 48 lead time. This holds particularly true for the Ammer River region which was affected by century floods in 1999, 2003 and 2005. Since 2005 a coupled NWP/Hydrology model system is operated in simulating and predicting the Ammer River discharges. The Ammer River catchment is located in the Bavarian Ammergau Alps and alpine forelands, Germany. With elevations reaching 2185 m and annual mean precipitation between 1100 and 2000 mm it represents very demanding test ground for a river runoff prediction system. The one way coupled system utilizes a lagged ensemble prediction system (EPS) taking into account combination of recent and previous NWP forecasts. The major components of the system are the MM5 NWP model run at 3.5 km resolution and initialized twice a day, the hydrology model WaSiM-ETH run at 100 m resolution and Perl object environment (POE) implementing the networking and the system operation. Results obtained in the years 2005-2012 reveal that river runoff simulations depict already high correlation (NSC in range 0.53 and 0.95) with observed runoff in retrospective runs with monitored meteorology data, but suffer from errors in quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the employed numerical weather prediction model. We evaluate the NWP model accuracy, especially the precipitation intensity, frequency and location and put a focus on the performance gain of bias adjustment procedures. We show how this enhanced QFP data help to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge prediction. In addition to the HND (Hochwassernachrichtendienst, Bayern) observations TERENO Longterm Observatory hydrometeorological observation data are available since 2011. They are used to evaluate the NWP performance and setup of a bias correction procedure based on ensemble postprocessing applying Bayesian (BMA) model averaging. We first present briefly the technical setup of the operational coupled lagged NWP/Hydrology model system and then focus on the evaluation of the NWP model, the BMA enhanced QPF and its application within the Ammer simulation system in the period 2011 - 2012

Learning Management System with Prediction Model and Course-Content Recommendation Module

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evale, Digna S.

2017-01-01

Aim/Purpose: This study is an attempt to enhance the existing learning management systems today through the integration of technology, particularly with educational data mining and recommendation systems. Background: It utilized five-year historical data to find patterns for predicting student performance in Java Programming to generate…

New PARSEC data base of α-enhanced stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones - I. Calibration with 47 Tuc (NGC 104) and the improvement on RGB bump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Xiaoting; Bressan, Alessandro; Marigo, Paola; Girardi, Léo; Montalbán, Josefina; Chen, Yang; Nanni, Ambra

2018-05-01

Precise studies on the Galactic bulge, globular cluster, Galactic halo, and Galactic thick disc require stellar models with α enhancement and various values of helium content. These models are also important for extra-Galactic population synthesis studies. For this purpose, we complement the existing PARSEC models, which are based on the solar partition of heavy elements, with α-enhanced partitions. We collect detailed measurements on the metal mixture and helium abundance for the two populations of 47 Tuc (NGC 104) from the literature, and calculate stellar tracks and isochrones with these α-enhanced compositions. By fitting the precise colour-magnitude diagram with HST ACS/WFC data, from low main sequence till horizontal branch (HB), we calibrate some free parameters that are important for the evolution of low mass stars like the mixing at the bottom of the convective envelope. This new calibration significantly improves the prediction of the red giant branch bump (RGBB) brightness. Comparison with the observed RGB and HB luminosity functions also shows that the evolutionary lifetimes are correctly predicted. As a further result of this calibration process, we derive the age, distance modulus, reddening, and the RGB mass-loss for 47 Tuc. We apply the new calibration and α-enhanced mixtures of the two 47 Tuc populations ([α/Fe] ˜ 0.4 and 0.2) to other metallicities. The new models reproduce the RGB bump observations much better than previous models. This new PARSEC data base, with the newly updated α-enhanced stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones, will also be a part of the new stellar products for Gaia.

Evaluation of concentrated space solar arrays using computer modeling. [for spacecraft propulsion and power supplies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rockey, D. E.

1979-01-01

A general approach is developed for predicting the power output of a concentrator enhanced photovoltaic space array. A ray trace routine determines the concentrator intensity arriving at each solar cell. An iterative calculation determines the cell's operating temperature since cell temperature and cell efficiency are functions of one another. The end result of the iterative calculation is that the individual cell's power output is determined as a function of temperature and intensity. Circuit output is predicted by combining the individual cell outputs using the single diode model of a solar cell. Concentrated array characteristics such as uniformity of intensity and operating temperature at various points across the array are examined using computer modeling techniques. An illustrative example is given showing how the output of an array can be enhanced using solar concentration techniques.

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2016-01-01

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

Integrating in silico models to enhance predictivity for developmental toxicity.

PubMed

Marzo, Marco; Kulkarni, Sunil; Manganaro, Alberto; Roncaglioni, Alessandra; Wu, Shengde; Barton-Maclaren, Tara S; Lester, Cathy; Benfenati, Emilio

2016-08-31

Application of in silico models to predict developmental toxicity has demonstrated limited success particularly when employed as a single source of information. It is acknowledged that modelling the complex outcomes related to this endpoint is a challenge; however, such models have been developed and reported in the literature. The current study explored the possibility of integrating the selected public domain models (CAESAR, SARpy and P&G model) with the selected commercial modelling suites (Multicase, Leadscope and Derek Nexus) to assess if there is an increase in overall predictive performance. The results varied according to the data sets used to assess performance which improved upon model integration relative to individual models. Moreover, because different models are based on different specific developmental toxicity effects, integration of these models increased the applicable chemical and biological spaces. It is suggested that this approach reduces uncertainty associated with in silico predictions by achieving a consensus among a battery of models. The use of tools to assess the applicability domain also improves the interpretation of the predictions. This has been verified in the case of the software VEGA, which makes freely available QSAR models with a measurement of the applicability domain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinetic Model Facilitates Analysis of Fibrin Generation and Its Modulation by Clotting Factors: Implications for Hemostasis-Enhancing Therapies

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

facilitates analysis of fibrin generation and its modulation by clotting factors : implications for hemostasis-enhancing therapies† Alexander Y...investigate the ability of fibrinogen and a recently proposed prothrombin complex concentrate composition, PCC-AT (a combination of the clotting factors II...kinetics. Moreover, the model qualitatively predicted the impact of tissue factor and tPA/tenecteplase level variations on the fibrin output. In the

Domestic estimated breeding values and genomic enhanced breeding values of bulls in comparison with their foreign genomic enhanced breeding values.

PubMed

Přibyl, J; Bauer, J; Čermák, V; Pešek, P; Přibylová, J; Šplíchal, J; Vostrá-Vydrová, H; Vostrý, L; Zavadilová, L

2015-10-01

Estimated breeding values (EBVs) and genomic enhanced breeding values (GEBVs) for milk production of young genotyped Holstein bulls were predicted using a conventional BLUP - Animal Model, a method fitting regression coefficients for loci (RRBLUP), a method utilizing the realized genomic relationship matrix (GBLUP), by a single-step procedure (ssGBLUP) and by a one-step blending procedure. Information sources for prediction were the nation-wide database of domestic Czech production records in the first lactation combined with deregressed proofs (DRP) from Interbull files (August 2013) and domestic test-day (TD) records for the first three lactations. Data from 2627 genotyped bulls were used, of which 2189 were already proven under domestic conditions. Analyses were run that used Interbull values for genotyped bulls only or that used Interbull values for all available sires. Resultant predictions were compared with GEBV of 96 young foreign bulls evaluated abroad and whose proofs were from Interbull method GMACE (August 2013) on the Czech scale. Correlations of predictions with GMACE values of foreign bulls ranged from 0.33 to 0.75. Combining domestic data with Interbull EBVs improved prediction of both EBV and GEBV. Predictions by Animal Model (traditional EBV) using only domestic first lactation records and GMACE values were correlated by only 0.33. Combining the nation-wide domestic database with all available DRP for genotyped and un-genotyped sires from Interbull resulted in an EBV correlation of 0.60, compared with 0.47 when only Interbull data were used. In all cases, GEBVs had higher correlations than traditional EBVs, and the highest correlations were for predictions from the ssGBLUP procedure using combined data (0.75), or with all available DRP from Interbull records only (one-step blending approach, 0.69). The ssGBLUP predictions using the first three domestic lactation records in the TD model were correlated with GMACE predictions by 0.69, 0.64 and 0.61 for milk yield, protein yield and fat yield, respectively.

Educators' Percpetions of the Substitution, Augmentation, Modification, Redefinition Model for Technology Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savignano, Mark Angelo

2017-01-01

The Substitution, Augmentation, Modification, Redefinition (SAMR) model has been introduced (Puentedura, 2006) claims that use of technology could predict student outcomes. School districts and educational institutions have been adopting this model in hopes to enhance the educational experience and outcomes for their students (SAMR Model, n.d.).…

Predicting Climate-sensitive Infectious Diseases: Development of a Federal Science Plan and the Path Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trtanj, J.; Balbus, J. M.; Brown, C.; Shimamoto, M. M.

2017-12-01

The transmission and spread of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases and zoonosis, are influenced by short and long-term climate factors, in conjunction with numerous other drivers. Public health interventions, including vaccination, vector control programs, and outreach campaigns could be made more effective if the geographic range and timing of increased disease risk could be more accurately targeted, and high risk areas and populations identified. While some progress has been made in predictive modeling for transmission of these diseases using climate and weather data as inputs, they often still start after the first case appears, the skill of those models remains limited, and their use by public health officials infrequent. And further, predictions with lead times of weeks, months or seasons are even rarer, yet the value of acting early holds the potential to save more lives, reduce cost and enhance both economic and national security. Information on high-risk populations and areas for infectious diseases is also potentially useful for the federal defense and intelligence communities as well. The US Global Change Research Program, through its Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), has put together a science plan that pulls together federal scientists and programs working on predictive modeling of climate-sensitive diseases, and draws on academic and other partners. Through a series of webinars and an in-person workshop, the CCHHG has convened key federal and academic stakeholders to assess the current state of science and develop an integrated science plan to identify data and observation systems needs as well as a targeted research agenda for enhancing predictive modeling. This presentation will summarize the findings from this effort and engage AGU members on plans and next steps to improve predictive modeling for infectious diseases.

A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing injury.

Plasmonic Light Trapping in Thin-Film Solar Cells: Impact of Modeling on Performance Prediction

PubMed Central

Micco, Alberto; Pisco, Marco; Ricciardi, Armando; Mercaldo, Lucia V.; Usatii, Iurie; La Ferrara, Vera; Delli Veneri, Paola; Cutolo, Antonello; Cusano, Andrea

2015-01-01

We present a comparative study on numerical models used to predict the absorption enhancement in thin-film solar cells due to the presence of structured back-reflectors exciting, at specific wavelengths, hybrid plasmonic-photonic resonances. To evaluate the effectiveness of the analyzed models, they have been applied in a case study: starting from a U-shaped textured glass thin-film, µc-Si:H solar cells have been successfully fabricated. The fabricated cells, with different intrinsic layer thicknesses, have been morphologically, optically and electrically characterized. The experimental results have been successively compared with the numerical predictions. We have found that, in contrast to basic models based on the underlying schematics of the cell, numerical models taking into account the real morphology of the fabricated device, are able to effectively predict the cells performances in terms of both optical absorption and short-circuit current values.

Linear and nonlinear models for predicting fish bioconcentration factors for pesticides.

PubMed

Yuan, Jintao; Xie, Chun; Zhang, Ting; Sun, Jinfang; Yuan, Xuejie; Yu, Shuling; Zhang, Yingbiao; Cao, Yunyuan; Yu, Xingchen; Yang, Xuan; Yao, Wu

2016-08-01

This work is devoted to the applications of the multiple linear regression (MLR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to quantitative structure-property relationship analysis of bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of pesticides tested on Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus). Molecular descriptors of a total of 107 pesticides were calculated with the DRAGON Software and selected by inverse enhanced replacement method. Based on the selected DRAGON descriptors, a linear model was built by MLR, nonlinear models were developed using MLP NN and PPR. The robustness of the obtained models was assessed by cross-validation and external validation using test set. Outliers were also examined and deleted to improve predictive power. Comparative results revealed that PPR achieved the most accurate predictions. This study offers useful models and information for BCF prediction, risk assessment, and pesticide formulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aeroservoelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noll, Thomas E.

1990-01-01

The paper describes recent accomplishments and current research projects along four main thrusts in aeroservoelasticity at NASA Langley. One activity focuses on enhancing the modeling and analysis procedures to accurately predict aeroservoelastic interactions. Improvements to the minimum-state method of approximating unsteady aerodynamics are shown to provide precise low-order models for design and simulation tasks. Recent extensions in aerodynamic correction-factor methodology are also described. With respect to analysis procedures, the paper reviews novel enhancements to matched filter theory and random process theory for predicting the critical gust profile and the associated time-correlated gust loads for structural design considerations. Two research projects leading towards improved design capability are also summarized: (1) an integrated structure/control design capability and (2) procedures for obtaining low-order robust digital control laws for aeroelastic applications.

Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.

1999-01-01

Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

Aortic Wall Inflammation Predicts Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Expansion, Rupture, and Need for Surgical Repair

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background: Ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) detect cellular inflammation on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm, we assessed whether USPIO-enhanced MRI can predict aneurysm growth rates and clinical outcomes. Methods In a prospective multicenter open-label cohort study, 342 patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (diameter ≥40 mm) were classified by the presence of USPIO enhancement and were monitored with serial ultrasound and clinical follow-up for ≥2 years. The primary end point was the composite of aneurysm rupture or repair. Results Participants (85% male, 73.1±7.2 years) had a baseline aneurysm diameter of 49.6±7.7 mm, and USPIO enhancement was identified in 146 (42.7%) participants, absent in 191 (55.8%), and indeterminant in 5 (1.5%). During follow-up (1005±280 days), 17 (5.0%) abdominal aortic aneurysm ruptures, 126 (36.8%) abdominal aortic aneurysm repairs, and 48 (14.0%) deaths occurred. Compared with those without uptake, patients with USPIO enhancement have increased rates of aneurysm expansion (3.1±2.5 versus 2.5±2.4 mm/year, P=0.0424), although this was not independent of current smoking habit (P=0.1993). Patients with USPIO enhancement had higher rates of aneurysm rupture or repair (47.3% versus 35.6%; 95% confidence intervals, 1.1–22.2; P=0.0308). This finding was similar for each component of rupture (6.8% versus 3.7%, P=0.1857) or repair (41.8% versus 32.5%, P=0.0782). USPIO enhancement was associated with reduced event-free survival for aneurysm rupture or repair (P=0.0275), all-cause mortality (P=0.0635), and aneurysm-related mortality (P=0.0590). Baseline abdominal aortic aneurysm diameter (P<0.0001) and current smoking habit (P=0.0446) also predicted the primary outcome, and the addition of USPIO enhancement to the multivariate model did not improve event prediction (c-statistic, 0.7935–0.7936). Conclusions USPIO-enhanced MRI is a novel approach to the identification of aortic wall cellular inflammation in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms and predicts the rate of aneurysm growth and clinical outcome. However, it does not provide independent prediction of aneurysm expansion or clinical outcomes in a model incorporating known clinical risk factors. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN76413758. PMID:28720724

Analysis of metabolic networks of Streptomyces leeuwenhoekii C34 by means of a genome scale model: Prediction of modifications that enhance the production of specialized metabolites.

PubMed

Razmilic, Valeria; Castro, Jean F; Andrews, Barbara; Asenjo, Juan A

2018-07-01

The first genome scale model (GSM) for Streptomyces leeuwenhoekii C34 was developed to study the biosynthesis pathways of specialized metabolites and to find metabolic engineering targets for enhancing their production. The model, iVR1007, consists of 1,722 reactions, 1,463 metabolites, and 1,007 genes, it includes the biosynthesis pathways of chaxamycins, chaxalactins, desferrioxamines, ectoine, and other specialized metabolites. iVR1007 was validated using experimental information of growth on 166 different sources of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous, showing an 83.7% accuracy. The model was used to predict metabolic engineering targets for enhancing the biosynthesis of chaxamycins and chaxalactins. Gene knockouts, such as sle03600 (L-homoserine O-acetyltransferase), and sle39090 (trehalose-phosphate synthase), that enhance the production of the specialized metabolites by increasing the pool of precursors were identified. Using the algorithm of flux scanning based on enforced objective flux (FSEOF) implemented in python, 35 and 25 over-expression targets for increasing the production of chaxamycin A and chaxalactin A, respectively, that were not directly associated with their biosynthesis routes were identified. Nineteen over-expression targets that were common to the two specialized metabolites studied, like the over-expression of the acetyl carboxylase complex (sle47660 (accA) and any of the following genes: sle44630 (accA_1) or sle39830 (accA_2) or sle27560 (bccA) or sle59710) were identified. The predicted knockouts and over-expression targets will be used to perform metabolic engineering of S. leeuwenhoekii C34 and obtain overproducer strains. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to western tropical Pacific convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Doo Young; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Yoo, Jin-Ho

2015-08-01

The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP Indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index or each MPI. Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by hybrid dynamical-statistical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using a hybrid dynamical-statistical approach compared to the dynamical forecast alone.

Parenting Styles and Beliefs about Parental Authority.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smetana, Judith G.

1994-01-01

Suggests that models of parenting style, such as Baumrind's popular model, are insensitive to variations in parenting resulting from characteristics of the different situations in which the parenting is expressed. Argues that considering parenting in context adds greater specificity to the model and enhances the potential for predicting child…

The Use of Modelling for Theory Building in Qualitative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briggs, Ann R. J.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this article is to exemplify and enhance the place of modelling as a qualitative process in educational research. Modelling is widely used in quantitative research as a tool for analysis, theory building and prediction. Statistical data lend themselves to graphical representation of values, interrelationships and operational…

Fusing Observations and Model Results for Creation of Enhanced Ozone Spatial Fields: Comparison of Three Techniques

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents three simple techniques for fusing observations and numerical model predictions. The techniques rely on model/observation bias being considered either as error free, or containing some uncertainty, the latter mitigated with a Kalman filter approach or a spati...

[Application of decision curve on evaluation of MRI predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer].

PubMed

He, Y J; Li, X T; Fan, Z Q; Li, Y L; Cao, K; Sun, Y S; Ouyang, T

2018-01-23

Objective: To construct a dynamic enhanced MR based predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer, and to evaluate the clinical benefit of the model by using decision curve. Methods: From December 2005 to December 2007, 170 patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy were identified and their MR images before neoadjuvant therapy and at the end of the first cycle of neoadjuvant therapy were collected. Logistic regression model was used to detect independent factors for predicting pCR and construct the predictive model accordingly, then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the predictive model. Results: ΔArea(max) and Δslope(max) were independent predictive factors for pCR, OR =0.942 (95% CI : 0.918-0.967) and 0.961 (95% CI : 0.940-0.987), respectively. The area under ROC curve (AUC) for the constructed model was 0.886 (95% CI : 0.820-0.951). Decision curve showed that in the range of the threshold probability above 0.4, the predictive model presented increased net benefit as the threshold probability increased. Conclusions: The constructed predictive model for pCR is of potential clinical value, with an AUC>0.85. Meanwhile, decision curve analysis indicates the constructed predictive model has net benefit from 3 to 8 percent in the likely range of probability threshold from 80% to 90%.

Prediction and control of neural responses to pulsatile electrical stimulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Luke J.; Sly, David James; O'Leary, Stephen John

2012-04-01

This paper aims to predict and control the probability of firing of a neuron in response to pulsatile electrical stimulation of the type delivered by neural prostheses such as the cochlear implant, bionic eye or in deep brain stimulation. Using the cochlear implant as a model, we developed an efficient computational model that predicts the responses of auditory nerve fibers to electrical stimulation and evaluated the model's accuracy by comparing the model output with pooled responses from a group of guinea pig auditory nerve fibers. It was found that the model accurately predicted the changes in neural firing probability over time to constant and variable amplitude electrical pulse trains, including speech-derived signals, delivered at rates up to 889 pulses s-1. A simplified version of the model that did not incorporate adaptation was used to adaptively predict, within its limitations, the pulsatile electrical stimulus required to cause a desired response from neurons up to 250 pulses s-1. Future stimulation strategies for cochlear implants and other neural prostheses may be enhanced using similar models that account for the way that neural responses are altered by previous stimulation.

Advancing Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the Polar Regions and Beyond during The Year of Polar Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Kirstin; Goessling, Helge; Hoke, Winfried; Kirchhoff, Katharina; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

Environmental changes in polar regions open up new opportunities for economic and societal operations such as vessel traffic related to scientific, fishery and tourism activities, and in the case of the Arctic also enhanced resource development. The availability of current and accurate weather and environmental information and forecasts will therefore play an increasingly important role in aiding risk reduction and safety management around the poles. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has been established by the World Meteorological Organization's World Weather Research Programme as the key activity of the ten-year Polar Prediction Project (PPP; see more on www.polarprediction.net). YOPP is an internationally coordinated initiative to significantly advance our environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, supporting improved weather and climate services. Scheduled to take place from mid-2017 to mid-2019, the YOPP core phase covers an extended period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities in the Arctic and Antarctic, on a wide range of time scales from hours to seasons. The Year of Polar Prediction will entail periods of enhanced observational and modelling campaigns in both polar regions. With the purpose to close the gaps in the conventional polar observing systems in regions where the observation network is sparse, routine observations will be enhanced during Special Observing Periods for an extended period of time (several weeks) during YOPP. This will allow carrying out subsequent forecasting system experiments aimed at optimizing observing systems in the polar regions and providing insight into the impact of better polar observations on forecast skills in lower latitudes. With various activities and the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders, YOPP will contribute to the knowledge base needed to managing the opportunities and risks that come with polar climate change.

Simulation Study of Flap Effects on a Commercial Transport Airplane in Upset Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cunningham, Kevin; Foster, John V.; Shah, Gautam H.; Stewart, Eric C.; Ventura, Robin N.; Rivers, Robert A.; Wilborn, James E.; Gato, William

2005-01-01

As part of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program, a simulation study of a twinjet transport airplane crew training simulation was conducted to address fidelity for upset or loss of control conditions and to study the effect of flap configuration in those regimes. Piloted and desktop simulations were used to compare the baseline crew training simulation model with an enhanced aerodynamic model that was developed for high-angle-of-attack conditions. These studies were conducted with various flap configurations and addressed the approach-to-stall, stall, and post-stall flight regimes. The enhanced simulation model showed that flap configuration had a significant effect on the character of departures that occurred during post-stall flight. Preliminary comparisons with flight test data indicate that the enhanced model is a significant improvement over the baseline. Some of the unrepresentative characteristics that are predicted by the baseline crew training simulation for flight in the post-stall regime have been identified. This paper presents preliminary results of this simulation study and discusses key issues regarding predicted flight dynamics characteristics during extreme upset and loss-of-control flight conditions with different flap configurations.

Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 2. Geomagnetic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savani, N. P.; Vourlidas, A.; Richardson, I. G.; Szabo, A.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A.; Mays, M. L.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T.; Bothmer, V.

2017-02-01

This is a companion to Savani et al. (2015) that discussed how a first-order prediction of the internal magnetic field of a coronal mass ejection (CME) may be made from observations of its initial state at the Sun for space weather forecasting purposes (Bothmer-Schwenn scheme (BSS) model). For eight CME events, we investigate how uncertainties in their predicted magnetic structure influence predictions of the geomagnetic activity. We use an empirical relationship between the solar wind plasma drivers and Kp index together with the inferred magnetic vectors, to make a prediction of the time variation of Kp (Kp(BSS)). We find a 2σ uncertainty range on the magnetic field magnitude (|B|) provides a practical and convenient solution for predicting the uncertainty in geomagnetic storm strength. We also find the estimated CME velocity is a major source of error in the predicted maximum Kp. The time variation of Kp(BSS) is important for predicting periods of enhanced and maximum geomagnetic activity, driven by southerly directed magnetic fields, and periods of lower activity driven by northerly directed magnetic field. We compare the skill score of our model to a number of other forecasting models, including the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)/SWRC estimates. The BSS model was the most unbiased prediction model, while the other models predominately tended to significantly overforecast. The True skill score of the BSS prediction model (TSS = 0.43 ± 0.06) exceeds the results of two baseline models and the NOAA/SWPC forecast. The BSS model prediction performed equally with CCMC/SWRC predictions while demonstrating a lower uncertainty.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

Top-down attentional control in spatially coincident stimuli enhances activity in both task-relevant and task-irrelevant regions of cortex

PubMed Central

Erickson, Kirk I.; Prakash, Ruchika Shaurya; Kim, Jennifer S.; Sutton, Bradley P.; Colcombe, Stanley J.; Kramer, Arthur F.

2010-01-01

Models of selective attention predict that focused attention to spatially contiguous stimuli may result in enhanced activity in areas of cortex specialized for processing task-relevant and task-irrelevant information. We examined this hypothesis by localizing color-sensitive areas (CSA) and word and letter sensitive areas of cortex and then examining modulation of these regions during performance of a modified version of the Stroop task in which target and distractors are spatially coincident. We report that only the incongruent condition with the highest cognitive demand showed increased activity in CSA relative to other conditions, indicating an attentional enhancement in target processing areas. We also found an enhancement of activity in one region sensitive to word/letter processing during the most cognitively demanding incongruent condition indicating greater processing of the distractor dimension. Correlations with performance revealed that top-down modulation during the task was critical for effective filtering of irrelevant information in conflict conditions. These results support predictions made by models of selective attention and suggest an important mechanism of top-down attentional control in spatially contiguous stimuli. PMID:18804123

Adaptive reliance on the most stable sensory predictions enhances perceptual feature extraction of moving stimuli.

PubMed

Kumar, Neeraj; Mutha, Pratik K

2016-03-01

The prediction of the sensory outcomes of action is thought to be useful for distinguishing self- vs. externally generated sensations, correcting movements when sensory feedback is delayed, and learning predictive models for motor behavior. Here, we show that aspects of another fundamental function-perception-are enhanced when they entail the contribution of predicted sensory outcomes and that this enhancement relies on the adaptive use of the most stable predictions available. We combined a motor-learning paradigm that imposes new sensory predictions with a dynamic visual search task to first show that perceptual feature extraction of a moving stimulus is poorer when it is based on sensory feedback that is misaligned with those predictions. This was possible because our novel experimental design allowed us to override the "natural" sensory predictions present when any action is performed and separately examine the influence of these two sources on perceptual feature extraction. We then show that if the new predictions induced via motor learning are unreliable, rather than just relying on sensory information for perceptual judgments, as is conventionally thought, then subjects adaptively transition to using other stable sensory predictions to maintain greater accuracy in their perceptual judgments. Finally, we show that when sensory predictions are not modified at all, these judgments are sharper when subjects combine their natural predictions with sensory feedback. Collectively, our results highlight the crucial contribution of sensory predictions to perception and also suggest that the brain intelligently integrates the most stable predictions available with sensory information to maintain high fidelity in perceptual decisions. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Enhancing understanding and improving prediction of severe weather through spatiotemporal relational learning.

PubMed

McGovern, Amy; Gagne, David J; Williams, John K; Brown, Rodger A; Basara, Jeffrey B

Severe weather, including tornadoes, thunderstorms, wind, and hail annually cause significant loss of life and property. We are developing spatiotemporal machine learning techniques that will enable meteorologists to improve the prediction of these events by improving their understanding of the fundamental causes of the phenomena and by building skillful empirical predictive models. In this paper, we present significant enhancements of our Spatiotemporal Relational Probability Trees that enable autonomous discovery of spatiotemporal relationships as well as learning with arbitrary shapes. We focus our evaluation on two real-world case studies using our technique: predicting tornadoes in Oklahoma and predicting aircraft turbulence in the United States. We also discuss how to evaluate success for a machine learning algorithm in the severe weather domain, which will enable new methods such as ours to transfer from research to operations, provide a set of lessons learned for embedded machine learning applications, and discuss how to field our technique.

Probing new physics through Bs*→μ+μ- decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Dinesh; Saini, Jyoti; Gangal, Shireen; Das, Sanjeeda Bharati

2018-02-01

We perform a model independent analysis of new physics in Bs*→μ+μ- decay. We intend to identify new physics operator(s) which can provide large enhancement in the branching ratio of Bs*→μ+μ- above its standard model prediction. For this, we consider new physics in the form of vector, axial-vector, scalar and pseudoscalar operators. We find that scalar and pseudoscalar operators do not contribute to the branching ratio of Bs*→μ+μ- . We perform a global fit to all relevant b →s μ+μ- data for different new physics scenarios. For each of these scenarios, we predict Br (Bs*→μ+μ-) . We find that a significant enhancement in Br (Bs*→μ+μ-) is not allowed by any of these new physics operators. In fact, for all new physics scenarios providing a good fit to the data, the branching ratio of Bs*→μ+μ- is suppressed as compared to the standard model (SM) value. Hence the present b →s μ+μ- data indicates that the future measurement of Br (Bs*→μ+μ-) is expected to be suppressed in comparison to the standard model prediction.

Integration of parallel 13 C-labeling experiments and in silico pathway analysis for enhanced production of ascomycin.

PubMed

Qi, Haishan; Lv, Mengmeng; Song, Kejing; Wen, Jianping

2017-05-01

Herein, the hyper-producing strain for ascomycin was engineered based on 13 C-labeling experiments and elementary flux modes analysis (EFMA). First, the metabolism of non-model organism Streptomyces hygroscopicus var. ascomyceticus SA68 was investigated and an updated network model was reconstructed using 13 C- metabolic flux analysis. Based on the precise model, EFMA was further employed to predict genetic targets for higher ascomycin production. Chorismatase (FkbO) and pyruvate carboxylase (Pyc) were predicted as the promising overexpression and deletion targets, respectively. The corresponding mutant TD-FkbO and TD-ΔPyc exhibited the consistency effects between model prediction and experimental results. Finally, the combined genetic manipulations were performed, achieving a high-yield ascomycin engineering strain TD-ΔPyc-FkbO with production up to 610 mg/L, 84.8% improvement compared with the parent strain SA68. These results manifested that the integration of 13 C-labeling experiments and in silico pathway analysis could serve as a promising concept to enhance ascomycin production, as well as other valuable products. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 1036-1044. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Enhanced auditory temporal gap detection in listeners with musical training.

PubMed

Mishra, Srikanta K; Panda, Manas R; Herbert, Carolyn

2014-08-01

Many features of auditory perception are positively altered in musicians. Traditionally auditory mechanisms in musicians are investigated using the Western-classical musician model. The objective of the present study was to adopt an alternative model-Indian-classical music-to further investigate auditory temporal processing in musicians. This study presents that musicians have significantly lower across-channel gap detection thresholds compared to nonmusicians. Use of the South Indian musician model provides an increased external validity for the prediction, from studies on Western-classical musicians, that auditory temporal coding is enhanced in musicians.

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

2015-01-01

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

Data Based Prediction of Blood Glucose Concentrations Using Evolutionary Methods.

PubMed

Hidalgo, J Ignacio; Colmenar, J Manuel; Kronberger, Gabriel; Winkler, Stephan M; Garnica, Oscar; Lanchares, Juan

2017-08-08

Predicting glucose values on the basis of insulin and food intakes is a difficult task that people with diabetes need to do daily. This is necessary as it is important to maintain glucose levels at appropriate values to avoid not only short-term, but also long-term complications of the illness. Artificial intelligence in general and machine learning techniques in particular have already lead to promising results in modeling and predicting glucose concentrations. In this work, several machine learning techniques are used for the modeling and prediction of glucose concentrations using as inputs the values measured by a continuous monitoring glucose system as well as also previous and estimated future carbohydrate intakes and insulin injections. In particular, we use the following four techniques: genetic programming, random forests, k-nearest neighbors, and grammatical evolution. We propose two new enhanced modeling algorithms for glucose prediction, namely (i) a variant of grammatical evolution which uses an optimized grammar, and (ii) a variant of tree-based genetic programming which uses a three-compartment model for carbohydrate and insulin dynamics. The predictors were trained and tested using data of ten patients from a public hospital in Spain. We analyze our experimental results using the Clarke error grid metric and see that 90% of the forecasts are correct (i.e., Clarke error categories A and B), but still even the best methods produce 5 to 10% of serious errors (category D) and approximately 0.5% of very serious errors (category E). We also propose an enhanced genetic programming algorithm that incorporates a three-compartment model into symbolic regression models to create smoothed time series of the original carbohydrate and insulin time series.

Model for Porosity Changes Occurring during Ultrasound-Enhanced Transcorneal Drug Delivery.

PubMed

Hariharan, Prasanna; Nabili, Marjan; Guan, Allan; Zderic, Vesna; Myers, Matthew

2017-06-01

Ultrasound-enhanced drug delivery through the cornea has considerable therapeutic potential. However, our understanding of how ultrasound enhances drug transport is poor, as is our ability to predict the increased level of transport for given ultrasound parameters. Described here is a computational model for quantifying changes in corneal porosity during ultrasound exposure. The model is calibrated through experiments involving sodium fluorescein transport through rabbit cornea. Validation was performed using nylon filters, for which the properties are known. It was found that exposure to 800-kHz ultrasound at an intensity 2 W/cm 2 for 5 min increased the porosity of the epithelium by a factor of 5. The model can be useful for determining the extent to which ultrasound enhances the amount of drug transported through biological barriers, and the time at which a therapeutic dose is achieved at a given location, for different drugs and exposure strategies. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Search for Nitrogen-enhanced Metal-poor Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jennifer A.; Herwig, Falk; Beers, Timothy C.; Christlieb, Norbert

2007-04-01

Theoretical models of very metal-poor intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars predict a large overabundance of primary nitrogen. The very metal-poor, carbon-enhanced, s-process-rich stars, which are thought to be the polluted companions of now extinct AGB stars, provide direct tests of the predictions of these models. Recent studies of the carbon and nitrogen abundances in metal-poor stars have focused on the most carbon-rich stars, leading to a potential selection bias against stars that have been polluted by AGB stars that produced large amounts of nitrogen and hence have small [C/N] ratios. We call these stars nitrogen-enhanced metal-poor (NEMP) stars and define them as having [N/Fe]>+0.5 and [C/N]<-0.5. In this paper we report on the [C/N] abundances of a sample of 21 carbon-enhanced stars, all but three of which have [C/Fe]<+2.0. If NEMP stars were made as easily as carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars, then we expected to find between two and seven NEMP stars. Instead, we found no NEMP stars in our sample. Therefore, this observational bias is not an important contributor to the apparent dearth of N-rich stars. Our [C/N] values are in the same range as values reported previously in the literature (-0.5 to +2.0), and all stars are in disagreement with the predicted [C/N] ratios for both low- and high-mass AGB stars. We suggest that the decrease in [C/N] from the low-mass AGB models is due to enhanced extramixing, while the lack of NEMP stars may be caused by unfavorable mass ratios in binaries or the difficulty of mass transfer in binary systems with large mass ratios. Based on observations obtained at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory and Kitt Peak National Observatory, a division of the National Optical Astronomy Observatory, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.

Stress enhanced calcium kinetics in a neuron.

PubMed

Kant, Aayush; Bhandakkar, Tanmay K; Medhekar, Nikhil V

2018-02-01

Accurate modeling of the mechanobiological response of a Traumatic Brain Injury is beneficial toward its effective clinical examination, treatment and prevention. Here, we present a stress history-dependent non-spatial kinetic model to predict the microscale phenomena of secondary insults due to accumulation of excess calcium ions (Ca[Formula: see text]) induced by the macroscale primary injuries. The model is able to capture the experimentally observed increase and subsequent partial recovery of intracellular Ca[Formula: see text] concentration in response to various types of mechanical impulses. We further establish the accuracy of the model by comparing our predictions with key experimental observations.

Enhanced Estimation of Terrestrial Loadings for TMDLs: Normalization Approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

TMDL implementation plans to remediate pathogen-impaired streams are usually based on deterministic terrestrial fate and transport (DTFT) models. A novel protocol is proposed that can effectively, efficiently, and explicitly capture the predictive uncertainty of DTFT models used to establish terres...

Role of surface plasmon polaritons and other waves in the radiation of resonant optical dipole antennas

PubMed Central

Jia, Hongwei; Liu, Haitao; Zhong, Ying

2015-01-01

The radiation of an electric dipole emitter can be drastically enhanced if the emitter is placed in the nano-gap of a metallic dipole antenna. By assuming that only surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) are excited on the antenna, we build up an intuitive pure-SPP model that is able to comprehensively predict the electromagnetic features of the antenna radiation, such as the total or radiative emission rate and the far-field radiation pattern. With the model we can distinguish the respective contributions from SPPs and from other surface waves to the antenna radiation. It is found that for antennas with long arms that support higher-order resonances, SPPs provide a dominant contribution to the antenna radiation, while for other cases, the contribution of surface waves other than SPPs should be considered. The model reveals an intuitive picture that the enhancement of the antenna radiation is due to surface waves that are resonantly excited on the two antenna arms and that are further coupled into the nano-gap or scattered into free space. From the model we can derive a phase-matching condition that predicts the antenna resonance and the resultant enhanced radiation. The model is helpful for a physical understanding and intuitive design of antenna devices. PMID:25678191

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) Stress Rupture Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Nathanael J.; Saulsberry, Regor L.; Leifeste, Mark R.; Yoder, Tommy B.; Keddy, Chris P.; Forth, Scott C.; Russell, Rick W.

2010-01-01

This paper reports stress rupture testing of Kevlar(TradeMark) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) at NASA White Sands Test Facility. This 6-year test program was part of the larger effort to predict and extend the lifetime of flight vessels. Tests were performed to characterize control parameters for stress rupture testing, and vessel life was predicted by statistical modeling. One highly instrumented 102-cm (40-in.) diameter Kevlar(TradeMark) COPV was tested to failure (burst) as a single-point model verification. Significant data were generated that will enhance development of improved NDE methods and predictive modeling techniques, and thus better address stress rupture and other composite durability concerns that affect pressure vessel safety, reliability and mission assurance.

Statistical inference, the bootstrap, and neural-network modeling with application to foreign exchange rates.

PubMed

White, H; Racine, J

2001-01-01

We propose tests for individual and joint irrelevance of network inputs. Such tests can be used to determine whether an input or group of inputs "belong" in a particular model, thus permitting valid statistical inference based on estimated feedforward neural-network models. The approaches employ well-known statistical resampling techniques. We conduct a small Monte Carlo experiment showing that our tests have reasonable level and power behavior, and we apply our methods to examine whether there are predictable regularities in foreign exchange rates. We find that exchange rates do appear to contain information that is exploitable for enhanced point prediction, but the nature of the predictive relations evolves through time.

IMPACT OF NEW GAMOW–TELLER STRENGTHS ON EXPLOSIVE TYPE IA SUPERNOVA NUCLEOSYNTHESIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mori, Kanji; Famiano, Michael A.; Kajino, Toshitaka

2016-12-20

Recent experimental results have confirmed a possible reduction in the Gamow–Teller (GT{sub +}) strengths of pf-shell nuclei. These proton-rich nuclei are of relevance in the deflagration and explosive burning phases of SNe Ia. While prior GT strengths result in nucleosynthesis predictions with a lower-than-expected electron fraction, a reduction in the GT{sub +} strength can result in a slightly increased electron fraction compared to previous shell model predictions, though the enhancement is not as large as previous enhancements in going from rates computed by Fuller, Fowler, and Newman based on an independent particle model. A shell model parametrization has been developed thatmore » more closely matches experimental GT strengths. The resultant electron-capture rates are used in nucleosynthesis calculations for carbon deflagration and explosion phases of SNe Ia, and the final mass fractions are compared to those obtained using more commonly used rates.« less

Impact of New Gamow-Teller Strengths on Explosive Type Ia Supernova Nucleosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Kanji; Famiano, Michael A.; Kajino, Toshitaka; Suzuki, Toshio; Hidaka, Jun; Honma, Michio; Iwamoto, Koichi; Nomoto, Ken'ichi; Otsuka, Takaharu

2016-12-01

Recent experimental results have confirmed a possible reduction in the Gamow-Teller (GT+) strengths of pf-shell nuclei. These proton-rich nuclei are of relevance in the deflagration and explosive burning phases of SNe Ia. While prior GT strengths result in nucleosynthesis predictions with a lower-than-expected electron fraction, a reduction in the GT+ strength can result in a slightly increased electron fraction compared to previous shell model predictions, though the enhancement is not as large as previous enhancements in going from rates computed by Fuller, Fowler, and Newman based on an independent particle model. A shell model parametrization has been developed that more closely matches experimental GT strengths. The resultant electron-capture rates are used in nucleosynthesis calculations for carbon deflagration and explosion phases of SNe Ia, and the final mass fractions are compared to those obtained using more commonly used rates.

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, WilliamM.

2011-01-01

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Enhancing model prediction reliability through improved soil representation and constrained model auto calibration - A paired waterhsed study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Process based and distributed watershed models possess a large number of parameters that are not directly measured in field and need to be calibrated through matching modeled in-stream fluxes with monitored data. Recently, there have been waves of concern about the reliability of this common practic...

Development and validation of a predictor of insufficient enhancement during the hepatobiliary phase of Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

Cui, Enming; Long, Wansheng; Luo, Liangping; Hu, Maoqing; Huang, Liebin; Chen, Xiangmeng

2017-10-01

Background Insufficient enhancement of liver parenchyma negatively affects diagnostic accuracy of Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Currently, there is no reliable method for predicting insufficient enhancement during the hepatobiliary phase (HBP) in Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI. Purpose To develop a predictor for insufficient enhancement of liver parenchyma during HBP in Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI. Material and Methods In order to formulate a HBP enhancement test (HBP-ET), clinical factors associated with relative enhancement ratio (RER) of liver parenchyma were retrospectively determined from the datasets of 156 patients (Development group) who underwent Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI between November 2012 and May 2015. The independent clinical factors were identified by Pearson's correlation and multiple stepwise regression analysis; the performance of HBP-ET was compared to Child-Pugh score (CPS), Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (MELD), and total bilirubin (TBIL) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The datasets of 52 patients (Validation group), which were examined between June 2015 and Oct 2015, were applied to validate the HBP-ET. Results Six biochemical parameters independently influenced RER and were used to develop HBP-ET. The mean HBP-ET score of patients with insufficient enhancement was significantly higher than that of patients with sufficient enhancement ( P < 0.001) in both the Development and Validation groups. HBP-ET (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.895) had better performance in predicting insufficient enhancement than CPS (AUC = 0.707), MELD (AUC = 0.798), and TBIL (AUC = 0.729). Conclusion The HBP-ET is more accurate than routine indicators in predicting insufficient enhancement during HBP, which is valuable to aid clinical decisions.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul

2016-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning retrospective predictions at the decadal (5-years), seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; van den Hurk, B.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2016-12-01

The European consortium earth system model (EC-Earth; http://www.ec-earth.org) has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-08-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Impact of Enhanced Ozone Deposition and Halogen Chemistry on Tropospheric Ozone over the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Sarwar, Golam; Gantt, Brett; Schwede, Donna; Foley, Kristen; Mathur, Rohit; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso

2015-08-04

Fate of ozone in marine environments has been receiving increased attention due to the tightening of ambient air quality standards. The role of deposition and halogen chemistry is examined through incorporation of an enhanced ozone deposition algorithm and inclusion of halogen chemistry in a comprehensive atmospheric modeling system. The enhanced ozone deposition treatment accounts for the interaction of iodide in seawater with ozone and increases deposition velocities by 1 order of magnitude. Halogen chemistry includes detailed chemical reactions of organic and inorganic bromine and iodine species. Two different simulations are completed with the halogen chemistry: without and with photochemical reactions of higher iodine oxides. Enhanced deposition reduces mean summer-time surface ozone by ∼3% over marine regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Halogen chemistry without the photochemical reactions of higher iodine oxides reduces surface ozone by ∼15% whereas simulations with the photochemical reactions of higher iodine oxides indicate ozone reductions of ∼48%. The model without these processes overpredicts ozone compared to observations whereas the inclusion of these processes improves predictions. The inclusion of photochemical reactions for higher iodine oxides leads to ozone predictions that are lower than observations, underscoring the need for further refinement of the halogen emissions and chemistry scheme in the model.

Research on prediction of agricultural machinery total power based on grey model optimized by genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Zhou, Jin; Zheng, Chang-zheng

2009-07-01

Agricultural machinery total power is an important index to reflex and evaluate the level of agricultural mechanization. It is the power source of agricultural production, and is the main factors to enhance the comprehensive agricultural production capacity expand production scale and increase the income of the farmers. Its demand is affected by natural, economic, technological and social and other "grey" factors. Therefore, grey system theory can be used to analyze the development of agricultural machinery total power. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey prediction model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the prediction model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for predicting agricultural machinery total power was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as agricultural machinery total power an effective tool for prediction.

Genomic Prediction Accounting for Residual Heteroskedasticity

PubMed Central

Ou, Zhining; Tempelman, Robert J.; Steibel, Juan P.; Ernst, Catherine W.; Bates, Ronald O.; Bello, Nora M.

2015-01-01

Whole-genome prediction (WGP) models that use single-nucleotide polymorphism marker information to predict genetic merit of animals and plants typically assume homogeneous residual variance. However, variability is often heterogeneous across agricultural production systems and may subsequently bias WGP-based inferences. This study extends classical WGP models based on normality, heavy-tailed specifications and variable selection to explicitly account for environmentally-driven residual heteroskedasticity under a hierarchical Bayesian mixed-models framework. WGP models assuming homogeneous or heterogeneous residual variances were fitted to training data generated under simulation scenarios reflecting a gradient of increasing heteroskedasticity. Model fit was based on pseudo-Bayes factors and also on prediction accuracy of genomic breeding values computed on a validation data subset one generation removed from the simulated training dataset. Homogeneous vs. heterogeneous residual variance WGP models were also fitted to two quantitative traits, namely 45-min postmortem carcass temperature and loin muscle pH, recorded in a swine resource population dataset prescreened for high and mild residual heteroskedasticity, respectively. Fit of competing WGP models was compared using pseudo-Bayes factors. Predictive ability, defined as the correlation between predicted and observed phenotypes in validation sets of a five-fold cross-validation was also computed. Heteroskedastic error WGP models showed improved model fit and enhanced prediction accuracy compared to homoskedastic error WGP models although the magnitude of the improvement was small (less than two percentage points net gain in prediction accuracy). Nevertheless, accounting for residual heteroskedasticity did improve accuracy of selection, especially on individuals of extreme genetic merit. PMID:26564950

Applying Risk Prediction Models to Optimize Lung Cancer Screening: Current Knowledge, Challenges, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Sakoda, Lori C; Henderson, Louise M; Caverly, Tanner J; Wernli, Karen J; Katki, Hormuzd A

2017-12-01

Risk prediction models may be useful for facilitating effective and high-quality decision-making at critical steps in the lung cancer screening process. This review provides a current overview of published lung cancer risk prediction models and their applications to lung cancer screening and highlights both challenges and strategies for improving their predictive performance and use in clinical practice. Since the 2011 publication of the National Lung Screening Trial results, numerous prediction models have been proposed to estimate the probability of developing or dying from lung cancer or the probability that a pulmonary nodule is malignant. Respective models appear to exhibit high discriminatory accuracy in identifying individuals at highest risk of lung cancer or differentiating malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. However, validation and critical comparison of the performance of these models in independent populations are limited. Little is also known about the extent to which risk prediction models are being applied in clinical practice and influencing decision-making processes and outcomes related to lung cancer screening. Current evidence is insufficient to determine which lung cancer risk prediction models are most clinically useful and how to best implement their use to optimize screening effectiveness and quality. To address these knowledge gaps, future research should be directed toward validating and enhancing existing risk prediction models for lung cancer and evaluating the application of model-based risk calculators and its corresponding impact on screening processes and outcomes.

Statistical Mining of Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shen, S. P.

2001-01-01

Results from a new ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction model yield a remarkable (10-20%) increases in baseline prediction skills for seasonal precipitation over the US for all seasons, compared to traditional statistical predictions. While the tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, contributes to the largest share of potential predictability in the southern tier States during boreal winter, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced predictability in the northern Great Plains, Midwest and the southwest US during boreal summer. Most importantly, ECC significantly reduces the spring predictability barrier over the conterminous US, thereby raising the skill bar for dynamical predictions.

Development of a calibration protocol and identification of the most sensitive parameters for the particulate biofilm models used in biological wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Eldyasti, Ahmed; Nakhla, George; Zhu, Jesse

2012-05-01

Biofilm models are valuable tools for process engineers to simulate biological wastewater treatment. In order to enhance the use of biofilm models implemented in contemporary simulation software, model calibration is both necessary and helpful. The aim of this work was to develop a calibration protocol of the particulate biofilm model with a help of the sensitivity analysis of the most important parameters in the biofilm model implemented in BioWin® and verify the predictability of the calibration protocol. A case study of a circulating fluidized bed bioreactor (CFBBR) system used for biological nutrient removal (BNR) with a fluidized bed respirometric study of the biofilm stoichiometry and kinetics was used to verify and validate the proposed calibration protocol. Applying the five stages of the biofilm calibration procedures enhanced the applicability of BioWin®, which was capable of predicting most of the performance parameters with an average percentage error (APE) of 0-20%. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative structure--property relationships for enhancing predictions of synthetic organic chemical removal from drinking water by granular activated carbon.

PubMed

Magnuson, Matthew L; Speth, Thomas F

2005-10-01

Granular activated carbon is a frequently explored technology for removing synthetic organic contaminants from drinking water sources. The success of this technology relies on a number of factors based not only on the adsorptive properties of the contaminant but also on properties of the water itself, notably the presence of substances in the water which compete for adsorption sites. Because it is impractical to perform field-scale evaluations for all possible contaminants, the pore surface diffusion model (PSDM) has been developed and used to predict activated carbon column performance using single-solute isotherm data as inputs. Many assumptions are built into this model to account for kinetics of adsorption and competition for adsorption sites. This work further evaluates and expands this model, through the use of quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs) to predict the effect of natural organic matter fouling on activated carbon adsorption of specific contaminants. The QSPRs developed are based on a combination of calculated topographical indices and quantum chemical parameters. The QSPRs were evaluated in terms of their statistical predictive ability,the physical significance of the descriptors, and by comparison with field data. The QSPR-enhanced PSDM was judged to give results better than what could previously be obtained.

Kernel Method Based Human Model for Enhancing Interactive Evolutionary Optimization

PubMed Central

Zhao, Qiangfu; Liu, Yong

2015-01-01

A fitness landscape presents the relationship between individual and its reproductive success in evolutionary computation (EC). However, discrete and approximate landscape in an original search space may not support enough and accurate information for EC search, especially in interactive EC (IEC). The fitness landscape of human subjective evaluation in IEC is very difficult and impossible to model, even with a hypothesis of what its definition might be. In this paper, we propose a method to establish a human model in projected high dimensional search space by kernel classification for enhancing IEC search. Because bivalent logic is a simplest perceptual paradigm, the human model is established by considering this paradigm principle. In feature space, we design a linear classifier as a human model to obtain user preference knowledge, which cannot be supported linearly in original discrete search space. The human model is established by this method for predicting potential perceptual knowledge of human. With the human model, we design an evolution control method to enhance IEC search. From experimental evaluation results with a pseudo-IEC user, our proposed model and method can enhance IEC search significantly. PMID:25879050

Respectful Modeling: Addressing Uncertainty in Dynamic System Models for Molecular Biology.

PubMed

Tsigkinopoulou, Areti; Baker, Syed Murtuza; Breitling, Rainer

2017-06-01

Although there is still some skepticism in the biological community regarding the value and significance of quantitative computational modeling, important steps are continually being taken to enhance its accessibility and predictive power. We view these developments as essential components of an emerging 'respectful modeling' framework which has two key aims: (i) respecting the models themselves and facilitating the reproduction and update of modeling results by other scientists, and (ii) respecting the predictions of the models and rigorously quantifying the confidence associated with the modeling results. This respectful attitude will guide the design of higher-quality models and facilitate the use of models in modern applications such as engineering and manipulating microbial metabolism by synthetic biology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to the western tropical Pacific convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. Y.; Ahn, J. B.; Yoo, J. H.

2014-12-01

The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index (EASMI) or each MP index (MPI). Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by statistical-empirical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using the statistical-empirical method compared to the dynamical models. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953, Republic of Korea.

Vibration attenuations induced by periodic arrays of piezoelectric patches connected by enhanced resonant shunting circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gang; Wang, Jianwei; Chen, Shengbing; Wen, Jihong

2011-12-01

Periodic arrays of piezoelectric patches connected by enhanced resonant shunting circuits are attached to a slender beam to control the propagation of vibration. Numerical models based on the transfer matrix methodology are constructed to predict the band structure, attenuation factors and the transmission of vibration in the proposed smart structure. The vibration attenuations of the proposed smart structure and that with the passive resonant shunting circuits are compared in order to verify the efficiency of the enhanced resonant shunting circuits. Vibration experiments are conducted in order to validate the theoretical predictions. The specimen with a combination of different types of resonant shunting circuits is also studied in order to gain wider attenuation frequency ranges.

Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Felice, Matteo De; Catalano, Franco; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Lee, Doo Young; Yoo, Jin-Ho; Weisheimer, Antije

2018-04-01

Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplifies with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two MME Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models. To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME is used to predict retrospective energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant enhancement of the potential economic value of forecasting energy demand when using the better combinations from the Grand MME by comparison to the maximum value obtained from the better combinations of each of the two contributing MMEs. The above results demonstrate for the first time the potential of the Grand MME to significantly contribute in obtaining useful predictions at the seasonal time-scale.

ENHANCED AIR POLLUTION EPIDEMIOLOGY USING A SOURCE-ORIENTED CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality model predictions describing source-oriented PM component concentrations in multiple size cuts will provide new inputs to examine the effects of acute and chronic PM exposure on mortality and morbidity. Associations between adverse health effects and PM sources/com...

Predictive modelling-based design and experiments for synthesis and spinning of bioinspired silk fibres

PubMed Central

Gronau, Greta; Jacobsen, Matthew M.; Huang, Wenwen; Rizzo, Daniel J.; Li, David; Staii, Cristian; Pugno, Nicola M.; Wong, Joyce Y.; Kaplan, David L.; Buehler, Markus J.

2016-01-01

Scalable computational modelling tools are required to guide the rational design of complex hierarchical materials with predictable functions. Here, we utilize mesoscopic modelling, integrated with genetic block copolymer synthesis and bioinspired spinning process, to demonstrate de novo materials design that incorporates chemistry, processing and material characterization. We find that intermediate hydrophobic/hydrophilic block ratios observed in natural spider silks and longer chain lengths lead to outstanding silk fibre formation. This design by nature is based on the optimal combination of protein solubility, self-assembled aggregate size and polymer network topology. The original homogeneous network structure becomes heterogeneous after spinning, enhancing the anisotropic network connectivity along the shear flow direction. Extending beyond the classical polymer theory, with insights from the percolation network model, we illustrate the direct proportionality between network conductance and fibre Young's modulus. This integrated approach provides a general path towards de novo functional network materials with enhanced mechanical properties and beyond (optical, electrical or thermal) as we have experimentally verified. PMID:26017575

Predictive modelling-based design and experiments for synthesis and spinning of bioinspired silk fibres.

PubMed

Lin, Shangchao; Ryu, Seunghwa; Tokareva, Olena; Gronau, Greta; Jacobsen, Matthew M; Huang, Wenwen; Rizzo, Daniel J; Li, David; Staii, Cristian; Pugno, Nicola M; Wong, Joyce Y; Kaplan, David L; Buehler, Markus J

2015-05-28

Scalable computational modelling tools are required to guide the rational design of complex hierarchical materials with predictable functions. Here, we utilize mesoscopic modelling, integrated with genetic block copolymer synthesis and bioinspired spinning process, to demonstrate de novo materials design that incorporates chemistry, processing and material characterization. We find that intermediate hydrophobic/hydrophilic block ratios observed in natural spider silks and longer chain lengths lead to outstanding silk fibre formation. This design by nature is based on the optimal combination of protein solubility, self-assembled aggregate size and polymer network topology. The original homogeneous network structure becomes heterogeneous after spinning, enhancing the anisotropic network connectivity along the shear flow direction. Extending beyond the classical polymer theory, with insights from the percolation network model, we illustrate the direct proportionality between network conductance and fibre Young's modulus. This integrated approach provides a general path towards de novo functional network materials with enhanced mechanical properties and beyond (optical, electrical or thermal) as we have experimentally verified.

Improvement of ore recovery efficiency in a flotation column cell using ultra-sonic enhanced bubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filippov, L. O.; Royer, J. J.; Filippova, I. V.

2017-07-01

The ore process flotation technique is enhanced by using external ultra-sonic waves. Compared to the classical flotation method, the application of ultrasounds to flotation fluids generates micro-bubbles by hydrodynamic cavitation. Flotation performances increase was modelled as a result of increased probabilities of the particle-bubble attachment and reduced detachment probability under sonication. A simplified analytical Navier-Stokes model is used to predict the effect of ultrasonic waves on bubble behavior. If the theory is verified by experimentation, it predicts that the ultrasonic waves would create cavitation micro-bubbles, smaller than the flotation bubble added by the gas sparger. This effect leads to increasing the number of small bubbles in the liquid which promote particle-bubble attachment through coalescence between bubbles and micro-bubbles. The decrease in the radius of the flotation bubbles under external vibration forces has an additional effect by enhancing the bubble-particle collision. Preliminary results performed on a potash ore seem to confirm the theory.

Potential Mechanisms Underlying Inflammation-Enhanced Aminoglycoside-Induced Cochleotoxicity

PubMed Central

Jiang, Meiyan; Taghizadeh, Farshid; Steyger, Peter S.

2017-01-01

Aminoglycoside antibiotics remain widely used for urgent clinical treatment of life-threatening infections, despite the well-recognized risk of permanent hearing loss, i.e., cochleotoxicity. Recent studies show that aminoglycoside-induced cochleotoxicity is exacerbated by bacteriogenic-induced inflammation. This implies that those with severe bacterial infections (that induce systemic inflammation), and are treated with bactericidal aminoglycosides are at greater risk of drug-induced hearing loss than previously recognized. Incorporating this novel comorbid factor into cochleotoxicity risk prediction models will better predict which individuals are more predisposed to drug-induced hearing loss. Here, we review the cellular and/or signaling mechanisms by which host-mediated inflammatory responses to infection could enhance the trafficking of systemically administered aminoglycosides into the cochlea to enhance the degree of cochleotoxicity over that in healthy preclinical models. Once verified, these mechanisms will be potential targets for novel pharmacotherapeutics that reduce the risk of drug-induced hearing loss (and acute kidney damage) without compromising the life-saving bactericidal efficacy of aminoglycosides. PMID:29209174

Predicting Drug Combination Index and Simulating the Network-Regulation Dynamics by Mathematical Modeling of Drug-Targeted EGFR-ERK Signaling Pathway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lu; Jiang, Yuyang; Chen, Yuzong

2017-01-01

Synergistic drug combinations enable enhanced therapeutics. Their discovery typically involves the measurement and assessment of drug combination index (CI), which can be facilitated by the development and applications of in-silico CI predictive tools. In this work, we developed and tested the ability of a mathematical model of drug-targeted EGFR-ERK pathway in predicting CIs and in analyzing multiple synergistic drug combinations against observations. Our mathematical model was validated against the literature reported signaling, drug response dynamics, and EGFR-MEK drug combination effect. The predicted CIs and combination therapeutic effects of the EGFR-BRaf, BRaf-MEK, FTI-MEK, and FTI-BRaf inhibitor combinations showed consistent synergism. Our results suggest that existing pathway models may be potentially extended for developing drug-targeted pathway models to predict drug combination CI values, isobolograms, and drug-response surfaces as well as to analyze the dynamics of individual and combinations of drugs. With our model, the efficacy of potential drug combinations can be predicted. Our method complements the developed in-silico methods (e.g. the chemogenomic profile and the statistically-inferenced network models) by predicting drug combination effects from the perspectives of pathway dynamics using experimental or validated molecular kinetic constants, thereby facilitating the collective prediction of drug combination effects in diverse ranges of disease systems.

Genomic prediction in a nuclear population of layers using single-step models.

PubMed

Yan, Yiyuan; Wu, Guiqin; Liu, Aiqiao; Sun, Congjiao; Han, Wenpeng; Li, Guangqi; Yang, Ning

2018-02-01

Single-step genomic prediction method has been proposed to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction by incorporating information of both genotyped and ungenotyped animals. The objective of this study is to compare the prediction performance of single-step model with a 2-step models and the pedigree-based models in a nuclear population of layers. A total of 1,344 chickens across 4 generations were genotyped by a 600 K SNP chip. Four traits were analyzed, i.e., body weight at 28 wk (BW28), egg weight at 28 wk (EW28), laying rate at 38 wk (LR38), and Haugh unit at 36 wk (HU36). In predicting offsprings, individuals from generation 1 to 3 were used as training data and females from generation 4 were used as validation set. The accuracies of predicted breeding values by pedigree BLUP (PBLUP), genomic BLUP (GBLUP), SSGBLUP and single-step blending (SSBlending) were compared for both genotyped and ungenotyped individuals. For genotyped females, GBLUP performed no better than PBLUP because of the small size of training data, while the 2 single-step models predicted more accurately than the PBLUP model. The average predictive ability of SSGBLUP and SSBlending were 16.0% and 10.8% higher than the PBLUP model across traits, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive abilities for ungenotyped individuals were also enhanced. The average improvements of prediction abilities were 5.9% and 1.5% for SSGBLUP and SSBlending model, respectively. It was concluded that single-step models, especially the SSGBLUP model, can yield more accurate prediction of genetic merits and are preferable for practical implementation of genomic selection in layers. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Tidal interactions in the expanding universe - The formation of prolate systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Binney, J.; Silk, J.

1979-01-01

The study estimates the magnitude of the anisotropy that can be tidally induced in neighboring initially spherical protostructures, be they protogalaxies, protoclusters, or even uncollapsed density enhancements in the large-scale structure of the universe. It is shown that the linear analysis of tidal interactions developed by Peebles (1969) predicts that the anisotropy energy of a perturbation grows to first order in a small dimensionless parameter, whereas the net angular momentum acquired is of second order. A simple model is presented for the growth of anisotropy by tidal interactions during the nonlinear stage of the development of perturbations. A possible observational test is described of the alignment predicted by the model between the orientations of large-scale perturbations and the positions of neighboring density enhancements.

A Generalized Model for Transport of Contaminants in Soil by Electric Fields

PubMed Central

Paz-Garcia, Juan M.; Baek, Kitae; Alshawabkeh, Iyad D.; Alshawabkeh, Akram N.

2012-01-01

A generalized model applicable to soils contaminated with multiple species under enhanced boundary conditions during treatment by electric fields is presented. The partial differential equations describing species transport are developed by applying the law of mass conservation to their fluxes. Transport, due to migration, advection and diffusion, of each aqueous component and complex species are combined to produce one partial differential equation hat describes transport of the total analytical concentrations of component species which are the primary dependent variables. This transport couples with geochemical reactions such as aqueous equilibrium, sorption, precipitation and dissolution. The enhanced model is used to simulate electrokinetic cleanup of lead and copper contaminants at an Army Firing Range. Acid enhancement is achieved by the use of adipic acid to neutralize the basic front produced for the cathode electrochemical reaction. The model is able to simulate enhanced application of the process by modifying the boundary conditions. The model showed that kinetics of geochemical reactions, such as metals dissolution/leaching and redox reactions might be significant for realistic prediction of enhanced electrokinetic extraction of metals in real world applications. PMID:22242884

Coupling internal cerebellar models enhances online adaptation and supports offline consolidation in sensorimotor tasks

PubMed Central

Passot, Jean-Baptiste; Luque, Niceto R.; Arleo, Angelo

2013-01-01

The cerebellum is thought to mediate sensorimotor adaptation through the acquisition of internal models of the body-environment interaction. These representations can be of two types, identified as forward and inverse models. The first predicts the sensory consequences of actions, while the second provides the correct commands to achieve desired state transitions. In this paper, we propose a composite architecture consisting of multiple cerebellar internal models to account for the adaptation performance of humans during sensorimotor learning. The proposed model takes inspiration from the cerebellar microcomplex circuit, and employs spiking neurons to process information. We investigate the intrinsic properties of the cerebellar circuitry subserving efficient adaptation properties, and we assess the complementary contributions of internal representations by simulating our model in a procedural adaptation task. Our simulation results suggest that the coupling of internal models enhances learning performance significantly (compared with independent forward and inverse models), and it allows for the reproduction of human adaptation capabilities. Furthermore, we provide a computational explanation for the performance improvement observed after one night of sleep in a wide range of sensorimotor tasks. We predict that internal model coupling is a necessary condition for the offline consolidation of procedural memories. PMID:23874289

Contextual predictability enhances reading performance in patients with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Fernández, Gerardo; Guinjoan, Salvador; Sapognikoff, Marcelo; Orozco, David; Agamennoni, Osvaldo

2016-07-30

In the present work we analyzed fixation duration in 40 healthy individuals and 18 patients with chronic, stable SZ during reading of regular sentences and proverbs. While they read, their eye movements were recorded. We used lineal mixed models to analyze fixation durations. The predictability of words N-1, N, and N+1 exerted a strong influence on controls and SZ patients. The influence of the predictabilities of preceding, current, and upcoming words on SZ was clearly reduced for proverbs in comparison to regular sentences. Both controls and SZ readers were able to use highly predictable fixated words for an easier reading. Our results suggest that SZ readers might compensate attentional and working memory deficiencies by using stored information of familiar texts for enhancing their reading performance. The predictabilities of words in proverbs serve as task-appropriate cues that are used by SZ readers. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using eyetracking for measuring how patients with SZ process well-defined words embedded in regular sentences and proverbs. Evaluation of the resulting changes in fixation durations might provide a useful tool for understanding how SZ patients could enhance their reading performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Spatial distribution prediction of surface soil Pb in a battery contaminated site].

PubMed

Liu, Geng; Niu, Jun-Jie; Zhang, Chao; Zhao, Xin; Guo, Guan-Lin

2014-12-01

In order to enhance the reliability of risk estimation and to improve the accuracy of pollution scope determination in a battery contaminated site with the soil characteristic pollutant Pb, four spatial interpolation models, including Combination Prediction Model (OK(LG) + TIN), kriging model (OK(BC)), Inverse Distance Weighting model (IDW), and Spline model were employed to compare their effects on the spatial distribution and pollution assessment of soil Pb. The results showed that Pb concentration varied significantly and the data was severely skewed. The variation coefficient of the site was higher in the local region. OK(LG) + TIN was found to be more accurate than the other three models in predicting the actual pollution situations of the contaminated site. The prediction accuracy of other models was lower, due to the effect of the principle of different models and datum feature. The interpolation results of OK(BC), IDW and Spline could not reflect the detailed characteristics of seriously contaminated areas, and were not suitable for mapping and spatial distribution prediction of soil Pb in this site. This study gives great contributions and provides useful references for defining the remediation boundary and making remediation decision of contaminated sites.

Spatial enhancement of ECG using diagnostic similarity score based lead selective multi-scale linear model.

PubMed

Nallikuzhy, Jiss J; Dandapat, S

2017-06-01

In this work, a new patient-specific approach to enhance the spatial resolution of ECG is proposed and evaluated. The proposed model transforms a three-lead ECG into a standard twelve-lead ECG thereby enhancing its spatial resolution. The three leads used for prediction are obtained from the standard twelve-lead ECG. The proposed model takes advantage of the improved inter-lead correlation in wavelet domain. Since the model is patient-specific, it also selects the optimal predictor leads for a given patient using a lead selection algorithm. The lead selection algorithm is based on a new diagnostic similarity score which computes the diagnostic closeness between the original and the spatially enhanced leads. Standard closeness measures are used to assess the performance of the model. The similarity in diagnostic information between the original and the spatially enhanced leads are evaluated using various diagnostic measures. Repeatability and diagnosability are performed to quantify the applicability of the model. A comparison of the proposed model is performed with existing models that transform a subset of standard twelve-lead ECG into the standard twelve-lead ECG. From the analysis of the results, it is evident that the proposed model preserves diagnostic information better compared to other models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Techniques for the Enhancement of Linear Predictive Speech Coding in Adverse Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wrench, Alan A.

Available from UMI in association with The British Library. Requires signed TDF. The Linear Prediction model was first applied to speech two and a half decades ago. Since then it has been the subject of intense research and continues to be one of the principal tools in the analysis of speech. Its mathematical tractability makes it a suitable subject for study and its proven success in practical applications makes the study worthwhile. The model is known to be unsuited to speech corrupted by background noise. This has led many researchers to investigate ways of enhancing the speech signal prior to Linear Predictive analysis. In this thesis this body of work is extended. The chosen application is low bit-rate (2.4 kbits/sec) speech coding. For this task the performance of the Linear Prediction algorithm is crucial because there is insufficient bandwidth to encode the error between the modelled speech and the original input. A review of the fundamentals of Linear Prediction and an independent assessment of the relative performance of methods of Linear Prediction modelling are presented. A new method is proposed which is fast and facilitates stability checking, however, its stability is shown to be unacceptably poorer than existing methods. A novel supposition governing the positioning of the analysis frame relative to a voiced speech signal is proposed and supported by observation. The problem of coding noisy speech is examined. Four frequency domain speech processing techniques are developed and tested. These are: (i) Combined Order Linear Prediction Spectral Estimation; (ii) Frequency Scaling According to an Aural Model; (iii) Amplitude Weighting Based on Perceived Loudness; (iv) Power Spectrum Squaring. These methods are compared with the Recursive Linearised Maximum a Posteriori method. Following on from work done in the frequency domain, a time domain implementation of spectrum squaring is developed. In addition, a new method of power spectrum estimation is developed based on the Minimum Variance approach. This new algorithm is shown to be closely related to Linear Prediction but produces slightly broader spectral peaks. Spectrum squaring is applied to both the new algorithm and standard Linear Prediction and their relative performance is assessed. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Predicting medical complications after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

PubMed

Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

2014-02-01

The possibility and likelihood of a postoperative medical complication after spine surgery undoubtedly play a major role in the decision making of the surgeon and patient alike. Although prior study has determined relative risk and odds ratio values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of medical complication, rather than relative risk or odds ratio values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of medical complication during and after spine surgery. Statistical analysis using a prospective surgical spine registry that recorded extensive demographic, surgical, and complication data. Outcomes examined are medical complications that were specifically defined a priori. This analysis is a continuation of statistical analysis of our previously published report. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,476 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication detail recorded for 2 years after surgery, we previously identified several risk factor for medical complications. Using the beta coefficients from those log binomial regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of medical complication after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created two predictive models: one predicting the occurrence of any medical complication and the other predicting the occurrence of a major medical complication. The final predictive model for any medical complications had a receiver operator curve characteristic of 0.76, considered to be a fair measure. The final predictive model for any major medical complications had receiver operator curve characteristic of 0.81, considered to be a good measure. The final model has been uploaded for use on SpineSage.com. We present a validated model for predicting medical complications after spine surgery. The value in this model is that it gives the user an absolute percent likelihood of complication after spine surgery based on the patient's comorbidity profile and invasiveness of surgery. Patients are far more likely to understand an absolute percentage, rather than relative risk and confidence interval values. A model such as this is of paramount importance in counseling patients and enhancing the safety of spine surgery. In addition, a tool such as this can be of great use particularly as health care trends toward pay-for-performance, quality metrics, and risk adjustment. To facilitate the use of this model, we have created a website (SpineSage.com) where users can enter in patient data to determine likelihood of medical complications after spine surgery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structural Dynamics Modeling of HIRENASD in Support of the Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wieseman, Carol; Chwalowski, Pawel; Heeg, Jennifer; Boucke, Alexander; Castro, Jack

2013-01-01

An Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop (AePW) was held in April 2012 using three aeroelasticity case study wind tunnel tests for assessing the capabilities of various codes in making aeroelasticity predictions. One of these case studies was known as the HIRENASD model that was tested in the European Transonic Wind Tunnel (ETW). This paper summarizes the development of a standardized enhanced analytical HIRENASD structural model for use in the AePW effort. The modifications to the HIRENASD finite element model were validated by comparing modal frequencies, evaluating modal assurance criteria, comparing leading edge, trailing edge and twist of the wing with experiment and by performing steady and unsteady CFD analyses for one of the test conditions on the same grid, and identical processing of results.

Predicting surgical site infection after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

PubMed

Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

2014-09-01

The impact of surgical site infection (SSI) is substantial. Although previous study has determined relative risk and odds ratio (OR) values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of SSI, rather than relative risk or OR values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of SSI after spine surgery. This study performs a multivariate analysis of SSI after spine surgery using a large prospective surgical registry. Using the results of this analysis, this study will then create and validate a predictive model for SSI after spine surgery. The patient sample is from a high-quality surgical registry from our two institutions with prospectively collected, detailed demographic, comorbidity, and complication data. An SSI that required return to the operating room for surgical debridement. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,532 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication details recorded for 2 years after the surgery, we identified several risk factors for SSI after multivariate analysis. Using the beta coefficients from those regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of SSI after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created a predictive model based on our beta coefficients from our multivariate analysis. The final predictive model for SSI had a receiver-operator curve characteristic of 0.72, considered to be a fair measure. The final model has been uploaded for use on SpineSage.com. We present a validated model for predicting SSI after spine surgery. The value in this model is that it gives the user an absolute percent likelihood of SSI after spine surgery based on the patient's comorbidity profile and invasiveness of surgery. Patients are far more likely to understand an absolute percentage, rather than relative risk and confidence interval values. A model such as this is of paramount importance in counseling patients and enhancing the safety of spine surgery. In addition, a tool such as this can be of great use particularly as health care trends toward pay for performance, quality metrics (such as SSI), and risk adjustment. To facilitate the use of this model, we have created a Web site (SpineSage.com) where users can enter patient data to determine likelihood for SSI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of three absorption-modifying critical excipients on the in vivo intestinal absorption of six model compounds in rats and dogs.

PubMed

David, Dahlgren; Carl, Roos; Pernilla, Johansson; Christer, Tannergren; Anders, Lundqvist; Peter, Langguth; Markus, Sjöblom; Erik, Sjögren; Hans, Lennernäs

2018-05-11

Pharmaceutical excipients that may affect gastrointestinal (GI) drug absorption are called critical pharmaceutical excipients (CPEs), or absorption-modifying excipients (AMEs) if they act by altering the integrity of the intestinal epithelial cell membrane. Some of these excipients increase intestinal permeability, and subsequently the absorption and bioavailability of the drug. This could have implications for both the assessment of bioequivalence and the efficacy of the absorption-enhancing drug delivery system. The absorption-enhancing effects of AMEs/CPEs with different mechanisms (chitosan, sodium caprate, sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS)) have previously been evaluated in the rat single-pass intestinal perfusion (SPIP) model. However, it remains unclear whether these SPIP data are predictive in a more in vivo like model. The same excipients were in this study evaluated in rat and dog intraintestinal bolus models. SDS and chitosan did exert an absorption-enhancing effect in both bolus models, but the effect was substantially lower than those observed in the rat SPIP model. This illustrates the complexity of the AME/CPE effects, and indicates that additional GI physiological factors need to be considered in their evaluation. We therefore recommend that AME/CPE evaluations obtained in transit-independent, preclinical permeability models (e.g. Ussing, SPIP) should be verified in animal models better able to predict in vivo relevant GI effects, at multiple excipient concentrations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Science and Prediction Initiatives of the NOAA MAPP Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Mariotti, A.

2016-12-01

There is great practical interest in developing predictions beyond the 2-week weather timescale. Scientific communities have historically organized themselves around the weather and climate problems, but the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale range overall is recognized as new territory for which a concerted shared effort is needed. For instance, the climate community, as part of programs like CLIVAR, has historically tackled coupled phenomena and modeling, keys to harnessing predictability on longer timescales. In contrast, the weather community has focused on synoptic dynamics, higher-resolution modeling, and enhanced model initialization, of importance at the shorter timescales and especially for the prediction of extremes. The processes and phenomena specific to timescales between weather and climate require a unified approach to science, modeling, and predictions. Internationally, the WWRP/WCRP S2S Prediction Project is a promising catalyzer for these types of activities. Among the various contributing U.S. research programs, the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, as part of the NOAA Climate Program Office, has launched coordinated research and transition activities that help to meet the agency's goals to fill the weather-to-climate prediction gap and will contribute to advance international goals. This presentation will describe ongoing MAPP program S2S science and prediction initiatives, specifically the MAPP S2S Task Force and the SubX prediction experiment.

Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; De Felice, M.; Catalano, F.; Lee, J. Y.; Wang, B.; Lee, D. Y.; Yoo, J. H.; Weisheimer, A.

2017-12-01

By initiating a novel cooperation between the European and the Asian-Pacific climate-prediction communities, this work demonstrates the potential of gathering together their Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) to obtain useful climate predictions at seasonal time-scale.MMEs are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles and increasing benefit is expected with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs). In this work we combine the two MME SPSs independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities by establishing an unprecedented partnerships. To this aim, all the possible MME combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models.To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand MME is used to predict energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant enhancement of the potential economic value of forecasting energy demand when using the better combinations from the Grand MME by comparison to the maximum value obtained from the better combinations of each of the two contributing MMEs. Above results are discussed in a Clim Dyn paper (Alessandri et al., 2017; doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3372-4).

Predictive model for convective flows induced by surface reactivity contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Scott M.; Lammertink, Rob G. H.; Mani, Ali

2018-05-01

Concentration gradients in a fluid adjacent to a reactive surface due to contrast in surface reactivity generate convective flows. These flows result from contributions by electro- and diffusio-osmotic phenomena. In this study, we have analyzed reactive patterns that release and consume protons, analogous to bimetallic catalytic conversion of peroxide. Similar systems have typically been studied using either scaling analysis to predict trends or costly numerical simulation. Here, we present a simple analytical model, bridging the gap in quantitative understanding between scaling relations and simulations, to predict the induced potentials and consequent velocities in such systems without the use of any fitting parameters. Our model is tested against direct numerical solutions to the coupled Poisson, Nernst-Planck, and Stokes equations. Predicted slip velocities from the model and simulations agree to within a factor of ≈2 over a multiple order-of-magnitude change in the input parameters. Our analysis can be used to predict enhancement of mass transport and the resulting impact on overall catalytic conversion, and is also applicable to predicting the speed of catalytic nanomotors.

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shen, S. P.

2001-01-01

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Opening up the blackbox: an interpretable deep neural network-based classifier for cell-type specific enhancer predictions.

PubMed

Kim, Seong Gon; Theera-Ampornpunt, Nawanol; Fang, Chih-Hao; Harwani, Mrudul; Grama, Ananth; Chaterji, Somali

2016-08-01

Gene expression is mediated by specialized cis-regulatory modules (CRMs), the most prominent of which are called enhancers. Early experiments indicated that enhancers located far from the gene promoters are often responsible for mediating gene transcription. Knowing their properties, regulatory activity, and genomic targets is crucial to the functional understanding of cellular events, ranging from cellular homeostasis to differentiation. Recent genome-wide investigation of epigenomic marks has indicated that enhancer elements could be enriched for certain epigenomic marks, such as, combinatorial patterns of histone modifications. Our efforts in this paper are motivated by these recent advances in epigenomic profiling methods, which have uncovered enhancer-associated chromatin features in different cell types and organisms. Specifically, in this paper, we use recent state-of-the-art Deep Learning methods and develop a deep neural network (DNN)-based architecture, called EP-DNN, to predict the presence and types of enhancers in the human genome. It uses as features, the expression levels of the histone modifications at the peaks of the functional sites as well as in its adjacent regions. We apply EP-DNN to four different cell types: H1, IMR90, HepG2, and HeLa S3. We train EP-DNN using p300 binding sites as enhancers, and TSS and random non-DHS sites as non-enhancers. We perform EP-DNN predictions to quantify the validation rate for different levels of confidence in the predictions and also perform comparisons against two state-of-the-art computational models for enhancer predictions, DEEP-ENCODE and RFECS. We find that EP-DNN has superior accuracy and takes less time to make predictions. Next, we develop methods to make EP-DNN interpretable by computing the importance of each input feature in the classification task. This analysis indicates that the important histone modifications were distinct for different cell types, with some overlaps, e.g., H3K27ac was important in cell type H1 but less so in HeLa S3, while H3K4me1 was relatively important in all four cell types. We finally use the feature importance analysis to reduce the number of input features needed to train the DNN, thus reducing training time, which is often the computational bottleneck in the use of a DNN. In this paper, we developed EP-DNN, which has high accuracy of prediction, with validation rates above 90 % for the operational region of enhancer prediction for all four cell lines that we studied, outperforming DEEP-ENCODE and RFECS. Then, we developed a method to analyze a trained DNN and determine which histone modifications are important, and within that, which features proximal or distal to the enhancer site, are important.

Nucleon decay in non-minimal supersymmetric SO(10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macpherson, Alick L.

1996-02-01

Evaluation of nucleon decay modes and branching ratios in a non-minimal supersymmetric SO(10) grand unified theory is presented. The non-minimal GUT considered is the supersymmetrised version of the 'realistic' SO(10) model originally proposed by Harvey, Reiss and Ramond, which is realistic in that it gives acceptable charged fermion and neutrino masses within the context of a phenomenological fit to the low-energy standard model inputs. Despite a complicated Higgs sector, the SO(10) 10 Higgs superfield mass insertion is found to be the sole contribution to the tree-level F-term governing nucleon decay. The resulting dimension-5 operators that mediate nucleon decay give branching ratio predictions parameterised by a single parameter, the ratio of the Yukawa couplings of the 10 to the fermion generations. For parameter values corresponding to a lack of dominance of the third family self-coupling, the dominant nucleon decay modes are p → K + + overlineνμand n → K 0 + overlineνμ as expected. Further, the charged muon decay modes are enhanced by two orders of magnitude over the standard minimal SUSY SU(5) predictions, thus predicting a distinct spectrum of 'visible' modes. These charged muon decay modes, along with p → π + + overlineνμand n → π 0 + overlineνμ, which are moderately enhanced over the SUSY SU(5) prediction, suggest a distinguishing fingerprint of this particular GUT model, and if nucleon decay is observed at Super-KAMIOKANDE the predicted branching ratio spectrum can be used to determine the validity of this 'realistic' SO(10) SUSY GUT model.

A Mathematical Model of the Olfactory Bulb for the Selective Adaptation Mechanism in the Rodent Olfactory System.

PubMed

Soh, Zu; Nishikawa, Shinya; Kurita, Yuichi; Takiguchi, Noboru; Tsuji, Toshio

2016-01-01

To predict the odor quality of an odorant mixture, the interaction between odorants must be taken into account. Previously, an experiment in which mice discriminated between odorant mixtures identified a selective adaptation mechanism in the olfactory system. This paper proposes an olfactory model for odorant mixtures that can account for selective adaptation in terms of neural activity. The proposed model uses the spatial activity pattern of the mitral layer obtained from model simulations to predict the perceptual similarity between odors. Measured glomerular activity patterns are used as input to the model. The neural interaction between mitral cells and granular cells is then simulated, and a dissimilarity index between odors is defined using the activity patterns of the mitral layer. An odor set composed of three odorants is used to test the ability of the model. Simulations are performed based on the odor discrimination experiment on mice. As a result, we observe that part of the neural activity in the glomerular layer is enhanced in the mitral layer, whereas another part is suppressed. We find that the dissimilarity index strongly correlates with the odor discrimination rate of mice: r = 0.88 (p = 0.019). We conclude that our model has the ability to predict the perceptual similarity of odorant mixtures. In addition, the model also accounts for selective adaptation via the odor discrimination rate, and the enhancement and inhibition in the mitral layer may be related to this selective adaptation.

A critical state model for mudrock behavior at high stress levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, M.; Nikolinakou, M. A.; Flemings, P. B.

2016-12-01

Recent experimental work has documented that the compression behavior, friction angle, and lateral stress ratio (k0) of mudrocks vary over the stress range of 1 to 100 MPa. We integrate these observations into a critical state model. The internal friction angle and the slope of the compression curve are key parameters in a mudrock critical state model. Published models assume that these parameters do not depend on the stress level, and hence predict lateral stress and normalized strength ratios that do not change with the stress level. However, recent experimental data on resedimented mudrock samples from Eugene Island, Gulf of Mexico, demonstrate that all these parameters vary considerably with the stress level (Casey and Germaine, 2013; Casey et al., 2015). To represent these variations, we develop an enhanced critical state model that uses a stress-level-dependent friction angle and a curvilinear compression curve. We show that this enhanced model predicts the observed variations of the lateral stress and strength ratios. The successful performance of our model indicates that the critical state theory developed for soil can predict mudrock nonlinear behavior at high stress levels and thus can be used in modeling geologic systems. Casey, B., Germaine, J., 2013. Stress Dependence of Shear Strength in Fine-Grained Soils and Correlations with Liquid Limit. J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 139, 1709-1717. Casey, B., Germaine, J., Flemings, P.B., Fahy, B.P., 2015. Estimating horizontal stresses for mudrocks under one-dimensional compression. Mar. Pet. Geol. 65, 178-186.

Generalized role for the cerebellum in encoding internal models: evidence from semantic processing.

PubMed

Moberget, Torgeir; Gullesen, Eva Hilland; Andersson, Stein; Ivry, Richard B; Endestad, Tor

2014-02-19

The striking homogeneity of cerebellar microanatomy is strongly suggestive of a corresponding uniformity of function. Consequently, theoretical models of the cerebellum's role in motor control should offer important clues regarding cerebellar contributions to cognition. One such influential theory holds that the cerebellum encodes internal models, neural representations of the context-specific dynamic properties of an object, to facilitate predictive control when manipulating the object. The present study examined whether this theoretical construct can shed light on the contribution of the cerebellum to language processing. We reasoned that the cerebellum might perform a similar coordinative function when the context provided by the initial part of a sentence can be highly predictive of the end of the sentence. Using functional MRI in humans we tested two predictions derived from this hypothesis, building on previous neuroimaging studies of internal models in motor control. First, focal cerebellar activation-reflecting the operation of acquired internal models-should be enhanced when the linguistic context leads terminal words to be predictable. Second, more widespread activation should be observed when such predictions are violated, reflecting the processing of error signals that can be used to update internal models. Both predictions were confirmed, with predictability and prediction violations associated with increased blood oxygenation level-dependent signal in the posterior cerebellum (Crus I/II). Our results provide further evidence for cerebellar involvement in predictive language processing and suggest that the notion of cerebellar internal models may be extended to the language domain.

Fatigue crack growth and life prediction under mixed-mode loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajith, S.; Murthy, K. S. R. K.; Robi, P. S.

2018-04-01

Fatigue crack growth life as a function of crack length is essential for the prevention of catastrophic failures from damage tolerance perspective. In damage tolerance design approach, principles of fracture mechanics are usually applied to predict the fatigue life of structural components. Numerical prediction of crack growth versus number of cycles is essential in damage tolerance design. For cracks under mixed mode I/II loading, modified Paris law (d/a d N =C (ΔKe q ) m ) along with different equivalent stress intensity factor (ΔKeq) model is used for fatigue crack growth rate prediction. There are a large number of ΔKeq models available for the mixed mode I/II loading, the selection of proper ΔKeq model has significant impact on fatigue life prediction. In the present investigation, the performance of ΔKeq models in fatigue life prediction is compared with respect to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on the selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempt to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions. Such a study aid the numerical analysts or engineers in the proper selection of the model for numerical simulation of the fatigue life. Moreover, the present investigation also suggests a procedure to enhance the accuracy of life prediction using Paris law.

Predicting enhancer activity and variant impact using gkm-SVM.

PubMed

Beer, Michael A

2017-09-01

We participated in the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation eQTL challenge to further test computational models of regulatory variant impact and their association with human disease. Our prediction model is based on a discriminative gapped-kmer SVM (gkm-SVM) trained on genome-wide chromatin accessibility data in the cell type of interest. The comparisons with massively parallel reporter assays (MPRA) in lymphoblasts show that gkm-SVM is among the most accurate prediction models even though all other models used the MPRA data for model training, and gkm-SVM did not. In addition, we compare gkm-SVM with other MPRA datasets and show that gkm-SVM is a reliable predictor of expression and that deltaSVM is a reliable predictor of variant impact in K562 cells and mouse retina. We further show that DHS (DNase-I hypersensitive sites) and ATAC-seq (assay for transposase-accessible chromatin using sequencing) data are equally predictive substrates for training gkm-SVM, and that DHS regions flanked by H3K27Ac and H3K4me1 marks are more predictive than DHS regions alone. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Self-inhibition can limit biologically enhanced TCE dissolution from a TCE DNAPL.

PubMed

Haest, P J; Springael, D; Seuntjens, P; Smolders, E

2012-11-01

Biodegradation of trichloroethene (TCE) near a Dense Non Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) can enhance the dissolution rate of the DNAPL by increasing the concentration gradient at the DNAPL-water interface. Two-dimensional flow-through sand boxes containing a TCE DNAPL and inoculated with a TCE dechlorinating consortium were set up to measure this bio-enhanced dissolution under anaerobic conditions. The total mass of TCE and daughter products in the effluent of the biotic boxes was 3-6 fold larger than in the effluent of the abiotic box. However, the mass of daughter products only accounted for 19-55% of the total mass of chlorinated compounds in the effluent, suggesting that bio-enhanced dissolution factors were maximally 1.3-2.2. The enhanced dissolution most likely primarily resulted from variable DNAPL distribution rather than biodegradation. Specific dechlorination rates previously determined in a stirred liquid medium were used in a reactive transport model to identify the rate limiting factors. The model adequately simulated the overall TCE degradation when predicted resident microbial numbers approached observed values and indicated an enhancement factor for TCE dissolution of 1.01. The model shows that dechlorination of TCE in the 2D box was limited due to the short residence time and the self-inhibition of the TCE degradation. A parameter sensitivity analysis predicts that the bio-enhanced dissolution factor for this TCE source zone can only exceed a value of 2 if the TCE self-inhibition is drastically reduced (when a TCE tolerant dehalogenating community is present) or if the DNAPL is located in a low-permeable layer with a small Darcy velocity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of enhanced pavement deterioration curves.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

This report describes the research performed by the Center for Sustainable Transportation Infrastructure (CSTI) at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to develop a pavement condition prediction model, using (negative binomial) regressio...

Water Quality Analysis Simulation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Water Quality analysis simulation Program, an enhancement of the original WASP. This model helps users interpret and predict water quality responses to natural phenomena and man-made pollution for variious pollution management decisions.

Moral Enhancement Meets Normative and Empirical Reality: Assessing the Practical Feasibility of Moral Enhancement Neurotechnologies.

PubMed

Dubljević, Veljko; Racine, Eric

2017-06-01

Moral enhancement refers to the possibility of making individuals and societies better from a moral standpoint. A fierce debate has emerged about the ethical aspects of moral enhancement, notably because steering moral enhancement in a particular direction involves choosing amongst a wide array of competing options, and these options entail deciding which moral theory or attributes of the moral agent would benefit from enhancement. Furthermore, the ability and effectiveness of different neurotechnologies to enhance morality have not been carefully examined. In this paper, we assess the practical feasibility of moral enhancement neurotechnologies. We reviewed the literature on neuroscience and cognitive science models of moral judgment and analyzed their implications for the specific target of intervention (cognition, volition or affect) in moral enhancement. We also reviewed and compared evidence on available neurotechnologies that could serve as tools of moral enhancement. We conclude that the predictions of rationalist, emotivist, and dual process models are at odds with evidence, while different intuitionist models of moral judgment are more likely to be aligned with it. Furthermore, the project of moral enhancement is not feasible in the near future as it rests on the use of neurointerventions, which have no moral enhancement effects or, worse, negative effects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using metal-ligand binding characteristics to predict metal toxicity: quantitative ion character-activity relationships (QICARs).

PubMed Central

Newman, M C; McCloskey, J T; Tatara, C P

1998-01-01

Ecological risk assessment can be enhanced with predictive models for metal toxicity. Modelings of published data were done under the simplifying assumption that intermetal trends in toxicity reflect relative metal-ligand complex stabilities. This idea has been invoked successfully since 1904 but has yet to be applied widely in quantitative ecotoxicology. Intermetal trends in toxicity were successfully modeled with ion characteristics reflecting metal binding to ligands for a wide range of effects. Most models were useful for predictive purposes based on an F-ratio criterion and cross-validation, but anomalous predictions did occur if speciation was ignored. In general, models for metals with the same valence (i.e., divalent metals) were better than those combining mono-, di-, and trivalent metals. The softness parameter (sigma p) and the absolute value of the log of the first hydrolysis constant ([symbol: see text] log KOH [symbol: see text]) were especially useful in model construction. Also, delta E0 contributed substantially to several of the two-variable models. In contrast, quantitative attempts to predict metal interactions in binary mixtures based on metal-ligand complex stabilities were not successful. PMID:9860900

The EST Model for Predicting Progressive Damage and Failure of Open Hole Bending Specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joseph, Ashith P. K.; Waas, Anthony M.; Pineda, Evan J.

2016-01-01

Progressive damage and failure in open hole composite laminate coupons subjected to flexural loading is modeled using Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST). Previous studies have demonstrated that EST can accurately predict the strength of open hole coupons under remote tensile and compressive loading states. This homogenized modeling approach uses single composite shell elements to represent the entire laminate in the thickness direction and significantly reduces computational cost. Therefore, when delaminations are not of concern or are active in the post-peak regime, the version of EST presented here is a good engineering tool for predicting deformation response. Standard coupon level tests provides all the input data needed for the model and they are interpreted in conjunction with finite element (FE) based simulations. Open hole bending test results of three different IM7/8552 carbon fiber composite layups agree well with EST predictions. The model is able to accurately capture the curvature change and deformation localization in the specimen at and during the post catastrophic load drop event.

Decreased diacylglycerol metabolism enhances ERK activation and augments CD8+ T cell functional responses.

PubMed

Riese, Matthew J; Grewal, Jashanpreet; Das, Jayajit; Zou, Tao; Patil, Vineet; Chakraborty, Arup K; Koretzky, Gary A

2011-02-18

Modulation of T cell receptor signal transduction in CD8(+) T cells represents a novel strategy toward enhancing the immune response to tumor. Recently, levels of guanine exchange factors, RasGRP and SOS, within T cells have been shown to represent a key determinant in the regulation of the analog to the digital activation threshold of Ras. One important for regulating activation levels of RasGRP is diacylglycerol (DAG), and its levels are influenced by diacylglycerol kinase-ζ (DGKζ), which metabolizes DAG into phosphatidic acid, terminating DAG-mediated Ras signaling. We sought to determine whether DGKζ-deficient CD8(+) T cells demonstrated enhanced in vitro responses in a manner predicted by the current model of Ras activation and to evaluate whether targeting this threshold confers enhanced CD8(+) T cell responsiveness to tumor. We observed that DGKζ-deficient CD8(+) T cells conform to most predictions of the current model of how RasGRP levels influence Ras activation. But our results differ in that the EC(50) value of stimulation is not altered for any T cell receptor stimulus, a finding that suggests a further degree of complexity to how DGKζ deficiency affects signals important for Ras and ERK activation. Additionally, we found that DGKζ-deficient CD8(+) T cells demonstrate enhanced responsiveness in a subcutaneous lymphoma model, implicating the analog to a digital conversion threshold as a novel target for potential therapeutic manipulation.

Uniting Cheminformatics and Chemical Theory To Predict the Intrinsic Aqueous Solubility of Crystalline Druglike Molecules

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

We present four models of solution free-energy prediction for druglike molecules utilizing cheminformatics descriptors and theoretically calculated thermodynamic values. We make predictions of solution free energy using physics-based theory alone and using machine learning/quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models. We also develop machine learning models where the theoretical energies and cheminformatics descriptors are used as combined input. These models are used to predict solvation free energy. While direct theoretical calculation does not give accurate results in this approach, machine learning is able to give predictions with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ∼1.1 log S units in a 10-fold cross-validation for our Drug-Like-Solubility-100 (DLS-100) dataset of 100 druglike molecules. We find that a model built using energy terms from our theoretical methodology as descriptors is marginally less predictive than one built on Chemistry Development Kit (CDK) descriptors. Combining both sets of descriptors allows a further but very modest improvement in the predictions. However, in some cases, this is a statistically significant enhancement. These results suggest that there is little complementarity between the chemical information provided by these two sets of descriptors, despite their different sources and methods of calculation. Our machine learning models are also able to predict the well-known Solubility Challenge dataset with an RMSE value of 0.9–1.0 log S units. PMID:24564264

Developing a predictive model for the chemical composition of soot nanoparticles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Violi, Angela; Michelsen, Hope; Hansen, Nils

In order to provide the scientific foundation to enable technology breakthroughs in transportation fuel, it is important to develop a combustion modeling capability to optimize the operation and design of evolving fuels in advanced engines for transportation applications. The goal of this proposal is to develop a validated predictive model to describe the chemical composition of soot nanoparticles in premixed and diffusion flames. Atomistic studies in conjunction with state-of-the-art experiments are the distinguishing characteristics of this unique interdisciplinary effort. The modeling effort has been conducted at the University of Michigan by Prof. A. Violi. The experimental work has entailed amore » series of studies using different techniques to analyze gas-phase soot precursor chemistry and soot particle production in premixed and diffusion flames. Measurements have provided spatial distributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and other gas-phase species and size and composition of incipient soot nanoparticles for comparison with model results. The experimental team includes Dr. N. Hansen and H. Michelsen at Sandia National Labs' Combustion Research Facility, and Dr. K. Wilson as collaborator at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's Advanced Light Source. Our results show that the chemical and physical properties of nanoparticles affect the coagulation behavior in soot formation, and our results on an experimentally validated, predictive model for the chemical composition of soot nanoparticles will not only enhance our understanding of soot formation since but will also allow the prediction of particle size distributions under combustion conditions. These results provide a novel description of soot formation based on physical and chemical properties of the particles for use in the next generation of soot models and an enhanced capability for facilitating the design of alternative fuels and the engines they will power.« less

Retrospective seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over West Central and Peninsular India in the past 142 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Juan; Wang, Bin; Yang, Young-Min

2017-04-01

Prediction of Indian summer (June-September) rainfall on regional scales remains an open issue. The operational predictions of West Central Indian summer rainfall (WCI-R) and Peninsular Indian summer rainfall (PI-R) made by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had no skills during 2004-2012. This motivates the present study aiming at better understanding the predictability sources and physical processes governing summer rainfall variability over these two regions. Analysis of 133 year data reveal that although the lower boundary forcing that associated with enhanced WCI-R and PI-R featured a similar developing La-Nina and "east high west low" sea-level pressure (SLP) dipole pattern across the Indo-Pacific, the anomalous high sea surface temperature (SST) over the northern Indian Ocean and weak low pressure over northern Asia tended to enhance PI-R but reduce WCI-R. Based on our understanding of physical linkages with the predictands, we selected four and two causative predictors for predictions of the WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The intensified summer WCI-R is preceded by (a) Indian Ocean zonal dipole-like SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (b) tropical Pacific zonal dipole SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (c) central Pacific meridional dipole SST tendency (north-cooling and south-warming), and (d) decreasing SLP tendency over northern Asia in the previous season. The enhanced PI-R was lead by the central-eastern Pacific cooling and 2-m temperature cooling tendency east of Lake Balkhash in the previous seasons. These causative processes linking the predictors and WCI-R and PI-R are supported by ensemble numerical experiments using a coupled climate model. For the period of 1871-2012, the physics-based empirical (P-E) prediction models built on these predictors result in cross-validated forecast temporal correlation coefficient skills of 0.55 and 0.47 for WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The independent forecast skill is significantly higher than the skill of operational seasonal forecast made by the IMD for the period of 2004-2012. These prediction models offer a tool for seasonal prediction and their retrospective forecast skills provide an estimation of the lower bound of the predictability for WCI-R and PI-R.

Computational studies of horizontal axis wind turbines in high wind speed condition using advanced turbulence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjanirat, Sarun

Next generation horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) will operate at very high wind speeds. Existing engineering approaches for modeling the flow phenomena are based on blade element theory, and cannot adequately account for 3-D separated, unsteady flow effects. Therefore, researchers around the world are beginning to model these flows using first principles-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches. In this study, an existing first principles-based Navier-Stokes approach is being enhanced to model HAWTs at high wind speeds. The enhancements include improved grid topology, implicit time-marching algorithms, and advanced turbulence models. The advanced turbulence models include the Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model, k-epsilon, k-o and Shear Stress Transport (k-o-SST) models. These models are also integrated with detached eddy simulation (DES) models. Results are presented for a range of wind speeds, for a configuration termed National Renewable Energy Laboratory Phase VI rotor, tested at NASA Ames Research Center. Grid sensitivity studies are also presented. Additionally, effects of existing transition models on the predictions are assessed. Data presented include power/torque production, radial distribution of normal and tangential pressure forces, root bending moments, and surface pressure fields. Good agreement was obtained between the predictions and experiments for most of the conditions, particularly with the Spalart-Allmaras-DES model.

Acceleration of Relativistic Electrons: A Comparison of Two Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, J. C.; Kivelson, M. G.

2001-12-01

Observations of relativistic electron fluxes show order of magnitude increases during some geomagnetic storms. Many electron acceleration models have been proposed to explain the flux enhancements but attempts to validate these models have yielded ambiguous results. Here we examine two models of electron acceleration, radial diffusion via enhanced ULF wave activity [Elkington et al.,1999] and acceleration by resonant interaction with whistler waves[Summers,1998; Roth et al.,1999]. Two methods are used to compare observations with features predicted by the models. First, the evolution of phase space density as a function of L during flux enhancement events is evaluated. The phase space density (PSD) is calculated at constant first, second and third adiabatic invariants using data obtained by the CEPPAD-HIST instrument and the MFE instrument onboard the Polar spacecraft. Liouville's theorem states that PSD calculated at constant adiabatic invariants does not change with time unless some mechanism violates one of the invariants. The radial diffusion model predicts that only the flux invariant will be violated during the acceleration process while acceleration by whistler waves violates the first invariant. Therefore, the two models predict a different evolution of the PSD as a function of time and L. Previous examinations of the evolution of PSD have yielded ambiguous results because PSD calculations are highly dependent on the global accuracy of magnetic field models. We examine the PSD versus L profiles for a series of geomagnetic storms and in addition determine how errors in the Tsyganenko 96 field model affect the results by comparing the measured magnetic field to the model magnetic field used in the calculations. Second, the evolution of the relativistic electron pitch angle distributions is evaluated. Previous studies of pitch angle distributions were limited because few spacecraft have the necessary instrumentation and global coverage. The CEPPAD-HIST instrument measures 16 look directions and along with measurements from the MFE experiment allows calculation of complete pitch angle distributions. The evolving orbit of the Polar spacecraft over the 6 years mission has given measurements over a wide range of L and local time. Using data extending over the entire mission we use superposed epoch analysis to examine the evolution of pitch angle distributions during flux enhancement events as a function of L, magnetic local time, and storm phase.

Nonlinear Terahertz Absorption of Graphene Plasmons.

PubMed

Jadidi, Mohammad M; König-Otto, Jacob C; Winnerl, Stephan; Sushkov, Andrei B; Drew, H Dennis; Murphy, Thomas E; Mittendorff, Martin

2016-04-13

Subwavelength graphene structures support localized plasmonic resonances in the terahertz and mid-infrared spectral regimes. The strong field confinement at the resonant frequency is predicted to significantly enhance the light-graphene interaction, which could enable nonlinear optics at low intensity in atomically thin, subwavelength devices. To date, the nonlinear response of graphene plasmons and their energy loss dynamics have not been experimentally studied. We measure and theoretically model the terahertz nonlinear response and energy relaxation dynamics of plasmons in graphene nanoribbons. We employ a terahertz pump-terahertz probe technique at the plasmon frequency and observe a strong saturation of plasmon absorption followed by a 10 ps relaxation time. The observed nonlinearity is enhanced by 2 orders of magnitude compared to unpatterned graphene with no plasmon resonance. We further present a thermal model for the nonlinear plasmonic absorption that supports the experimental results. The model shows that the observed strong linearity is caused by an unexpected red shift of plasmon resonance together with a broadening and weakening of the resonance caused by the transient increase in electron temperature. The model further predicts that even greater resonant enhancement of the nonlinear response can be expected in high-mobility graphene, suggesting that nonlinear graphene plasmonic devices could be promising candidates for nonlinear optical processing.

A homogenized localizing gradient damage model with micro inertia effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhao; Poh, Leong Hien

2018-07-01

The conventional gradient enhancement regularizes structural responses during material failure. However, it induces a spurious damage growth phenomenon, which is shown here to persist in dynamics. Similar issues were reported with the integral averaging approach. Consequently, the conventional nonlocal enhancement cannot adequately describe the dynamic fracture of quasi-brittle materials, particularly in the high strain rate regime, where a diffused damage profile precludes the development of closely spaced macrocracks. To this end, a homogenization theory is proposed to translate the micro processes onto the macro scale. Starting with simple elementary models at the micro scale to describe the fracture mechanisms, an additional kinematic field is introduced to capture the variations in deformation and velocity within a unit cell. An energetic equivalence between micro and macro is next imposed to ensure consistency at the two scales. The ensuing homogenized microforce balance resembles closely the conventional gradient expression, albeit with an interaction domain that decreases with damage, complemented by a micro inertia effect. Considering a direct single pressure bar example, the homogenized model is shown to resolve the non-physical responses obtained with conventional nonlocal enhancement. The predictive capability of the homogenized model is furthermore demonstrated by considering the spall tests of concrete, with good predictions on failure characteristics such as fragmentation profiles and dynamic tensile strengths, at three different loading rates.

XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

2014-05-01

Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be used to help optimise design criteria for gravel barriers to reduce their vulnerability and enhance their coastal protection ability.

Selective spatial enhancement: Attentional spotlight size impacts spatial but not temporal perception.

PubMed

Goodhew, Stephanie C; Shen, Elizabeth; Edwards, Mark

2016-08-01

An important but often neglected aspect of attention is how changes in the attentional spotlight size impact perception. The zoom-lens model predicts that a small ("focal") attentional spotlight enhances all aspects of perception relative to a larger ("diffuse" spotlight). However, based on the physiological properties of the two major classes of visual cells (magnocellular and parvocellular neurons) we predicted trade-offs in spatial and temporal acuity as a function of spotlight size. Contrary to both of these accounts, however, across two experiments we found that attentional spotlight size affected spatial acuity, such that spatial acuity was enhanced for a focal relative to a diffuse spotlight, whereas the same modulations in spotlight size had no impact on temporal acuity. This likely reflects the function of attention: to induce the high spatial resolution of the fovea in periphery, where spatial resolution is poor but temporal resolution is good. It is adaptive, therefore, for the attentional spotlight to enhance spatial acuity, whereas enhancing temporal acuity does not confer the same benefit.

A Collaborative Location Based Travel Recommendation System through Enhanced Rating Prediction for the Group of Users.

PubMed

Ravi, Logesh; Vairavasundaram, Subramaniyaswamy

2016-01-01

Rapid growth of web and its applications has created a colossal importance for recommender systems. Being applied in various domains, recommender systems were designed to generate suggestions such as items or services based on user interests. Basically, recommender systems experience many issues which reflects dwindled effectiveness. Integrating powerful data management techniques to recommender systems can address such issues and the recommendations quality can be increased significantly. Recent research on recommender systems reveals an idea of utilizing social network data to enhance traditional recommender system with better prediction and improved accuracy. This paper expresses views on social network data based recommender systems by considering usage of various recommendation algorithms, functionalities of systems, different types of interfaces, filtering techniques, and artificial intelligence techniques. After examining the depths of objectives, methodologies, and data sources of the existing models, the paper helps anyone interested in the development of travel recommendation systems and facilitates future research direction. We have also proposed a location recommendation system based on social pertinent trust walker (SPTW) and compared the results with the existing baseline random walk models. Later, we have enhanced the SPTW model for group of users recommendations. The results obtained from the experiments have been presented.

Genomic Prediction Accounting for Residual Heteroskedasticity.

PubMed

Ou, Zhining; Tempelman, Robert J; Steibel, Juan P; Ernst, Catherine W; Bates, Ronald O; Bello, Nora M

2015-11-12

Whole-genome prediction (WGP) models that use single-nucleotide polymorphism marker information to predict genetic merit of animals and plants typically assume homogeneous residual variance. However, variability is often heterogeneous across agricultural production systems and may subsequently bias WGP-based inferences. This study extends classical WGP models based on normality, heavy-tailed specifications and variable selection to explicitly account for environmentally-driven residual heteroskedasticity under a hierarchical Bayesian mixed-models framework. WGP models assuming homogeneous or heterogeneous residual variances were fitted to training data generated under simulation scenarios reflecting a gradient of increasing heteroskedasticity. Model fit was based on pseudo-Bayes factors and also on prediction accuracy of genomic breeding values computed on a validation data subset one generation removed from the simulated training dataset. Homogeneous vs. heterogeneous residual variance WGP models were also fitted to two quantitative traits, namely 45-min postmortem carcass temperature and loin muscle pH, recorded in a swine resource population dataset prescreened for high and mild residual heteroskedasticity, respectively. Fit of competing WGP models was compared using pseudo-Bayes factors. Predictive ability, defined as the correlation between predicted and observed phenotypes in validation sets of a five-fold cross-validation was also computed. Heteroskedastic error WGP models showed improved model fit and enhanced prediction accuracy compared to homoskedastic error WGP models although the magnitude of the improvement was small (less than two percentage points net gain in prediction accuracy). Nevertheless, accounting for residual heteroskedasticity did improve accuracy of selection, especially on individuals of extreme genetic merit. Copyright © 2016 Ou et al.

Temperature Sensitivity of an Atomic Vapor Cell-Based Dispersion-Enhanced Optical Cavity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myneni, K.; Smith, D. D.; Chang, H.; Luckay, H. A.

2015-01-01

Enhancement of the response of an optical cavity to a change in optical path length, through the use of an intracavity fast-light medium, has previously been demonstrated experimentally and described theoretically for an atomic vapor cell as the intracavity resonant absorber. This phenomenon may be used to enhance both the scale factor and sensitivity of an optical cavity mode to the change in path length, e.g. in gyroscopic applications. We study the temperature sensitivity of the on-resonant scale factor enhancement, S(sub o), due to the thermal sensitivity of the lower-level atom density in an atomic vapor cell, specifically for the case of the Rb-87 D(sub 2) transition. A semi-empirical model of the temperature-dependence of the absorption profile, characterized by two parameters, a(sub o)(T) and gamma(sub a)(T) allows the temperature-dependence of the cavity response, S(sub o)(T) and dS(sub o)/dT to be predicted over a range of temperature. We compare the predictions to experiment. Our model will be useful in determining the useful range for S(sub o), given the practical constraints on temperature stability for an atomic vapor cell.

Hydrogen-enhanced-plasticity mediated decohesion for hydrogen-induced intergranular and ``quasi-cleavage'' fracture of lath martensitic steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagao, Akihide; Dadfarnia, Mohsen; Somerday, Brian P.; Sofronis, Petros; Ritchie, Robert O.

2018-03-01

Hydrogen embrittlement of lath martenistic steels is characterized by intergranular and "quasi-cleavage" transgranular fracture. Recent transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analyses (Nagao et al., 2012a, 2014a, 2014b, 2014c) of samples lifted from beneath fracture surfaces through focused ion beam machining (FIB) revealed a failure mechanism that can be termed hydrogen-enhanced-plasticity mediated decohesion. Fracture occurs by the synergistic action of the hydrogen-enhanced localized plasticity and decohesion. In particular, intergranular cracking takes place by dislocation pile-ups impinging on prior austenite grain boundaries and "quasi-cleavage" is the case when dislocation pile-ups impinge on block boundaries. These high-angle boundaries, which have already weakened by the presence of hydrogen, debond by the pile-up stresses. The micromechanical model of Novak et al. (2010) is used to quantitatively describe and predict the hydrogen-induced failure of these steels. The model predictions verify that introduction of nanosized (Ti,Mo)C precipitates in the steel microstructure enhances the resistance to hydrogen embrittlement. The results are used to discuss microstructural designs that are less susceptible to hydrogen-induced failure in systems with fixed hydrogen content (closed systems).

Poromechanical response of naturally fractured sorbing media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Hemant

The injection of CO2 in coal seams has been utilized for enhanced gas recovery and potential CO2 sequestration in unmineable coal seams. It is advantageous because as it enhances the production and significant volumes of CO2 may be stored simultaneously. The key issues for enhanced gas recovery and geologic sequestration of CO2 include (1) Injectivity prediction: The chemical and physical processes initiated by the injection of CO2 in the coal seam leads to permeability/porosity changes (2) Up scaling: Development of full scale coupled reservoir model which may predict the enhanced production, associated permeability changes and quantity of sequestered CO2. (3) Reservoir Stimulation: The coalbeds are often fractured and proppants are placed into the fractures to prevent the permeability reduction but the permeability evolution in such cases is poorly understood. These issues are largely governed by dynamic coupling of adsorption, fluid exchange, transport, water content, stress regime, fracture geometry and physiomechanical changes in coals which are triggered by CO 2 injection. The understanding of complex interactions in coal has been investigated through laboratory experiments and full reservoir scale models are developed to answer key issues. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Recent tests of the equilibrium-point hypothesis (lambda model).

PubMed

Feldman, A G; Ostry, D J; Levin, M F; Gribble, P L; Mitnitski, A B

1998-07-01

The lambda model of the equilibrium-point hypothesis (Feldman & Levin, 1995) is an approach to motor control which, like physics, is based on a logical system coordinating empirical data. The model has gone through an interesting period. On one hand, several nontrivial predictions of the model have been successfully verified in recent studies. In addition, the explanatory and predictive capacity of the model has been enhanced by its extension to multimuscle and multijoint systems. On the other hand, claims have recently appeared suggesting that the model should be abandoned. The present paper focuses on these claims and concludes that they are unfounded. Much of the experimental data that have been used to reject the model are actually consistent with it.

Numerical simulation of turbulence flow in a Kaplan turbine -Evaluation on turbine performance prediction accuracy-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, P.; Kurosawa, S.

2014-03-01

The understanding and accurate prediction of the flow behaviour related to cavitation and pressure fluctuation in a Kaplan turbine are important to the design work enhancing the turbine performance including the elongation of the operation life span and the improvement of turbine efficiency. In this paper, high accuracy turbine and cavitation performance prediction method based on entire flow passage for a Kaplan turbine is presented and evaluated. Two-phase flow field is predicted by solving Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations expressed by volume of fluid method tracking the free surface and combined with Reynolds Stress model. The growth and collapse of cavitation bubbles are modelled by the modified Rayleigh-Plesset equation. The prediction accuracy is evaluated by comparing with the model test results of Ns 400 Kaplan model turbine. As a result that the experimentally measured data including turbine efficiency, cavitation performance, and pressure fluctuation are accurately predicted. Furthermore, the cavitation occurrence on the runner blade surface and the influence to the hydraulic loss of the flow passage are discussed. Evaluated prediction method for the turbine flow and performance is introduced to facilitate the future design and research works on Kaplan type turbine.

EnergyPlus and SEEM Modeling Enhancements via Software-to-Software Comparison Using NREL's BEopt Test Suite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horowitz, Scott; Maguire, Jeff; Tabares-Velasco, Paulo Cesar

2016-08-01

This multiphase study involved comprehensive comparative testing of EnergyPlus and SEEM to determine the differences in energy consumption predictions between these two programs and to reconcile prioritized discrepancies through bug fixes, modeling improvements, and/or consistent inputs and assumptions.

Extraction and identification of mixed pesticides’ Raman signal and establishment of their prediction models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A nondestructive and sensitive method was developed to detect the presence of mixed pesticides of acetamiprid, chlorpyrifos and carbendazim on apples by surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS). Self-modeling mixture analysis (SMA) was used to extract and identify the Raman spectra of individual p...

Computational Modeling of Distinct Neocortical Oscillations Driven by Cell-Type Selective Optogenetic Drive: Separable Resonant Circuits Controlled by Low-Threshold Spiking and Fast-Spiking Interneurons

PubMed Central

Vierling-Claassen, Dorea; Cardin, Jessica A.; Moore, Christopher I.; Jones, Stephanie R.

2010-01-01

Selective optogenetic drive of fast-spiking (FS) interneurons (INs) leads to enhanced local field potential (LFP) power across the traditional “gamma” frequency band (20–80 Hz; Cardin et al., 2009). In contrast, drive to regular-spiking (RS) pyramidal cells enhances power at lower frequencies, with a peak at 8 Hz. The first result is consistent with previous computational studies emphasizing the role of FS and the time constant of GABAA synaptic inhibition in gamma rhythmicity. However, the same theoretical models do not typically predict low-frequency LFP enhancement with RS drive. To develop hypotheses as to how the same network can support these contrasting behaviors, we constructed a biophysically principled network model of primary somatosensory neocortex containing FS, RS, and low-threshold spiking (LTS) INs. Cells were modeled with detailed cell anatomy and physiology, multiple dendritic compartments, and included active somatic and dendritic ionic currents. Consistent with prior studies, the model demonstrated gamma resonance during FS drive, dependent on the time constant of GABAA inhibition induced by synchronous FS activity. Lower-frequency enhancement during RS drive was replicated only on inclusion of an inhibitory LTS population, whose activation was critically dependent on RS synchrony and evoked longer-lasting inhibition. Our results predict that differential recruitment of FS and LTS inhibitory populations is essential to the observed cortical dynamics and may provide a means for amplifying the natural expression of distinct oscillations in normal cortical processing. PMID:21152338

Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting with an Ensemble of Varied Length Mixture Models.

PubMed

Ouyang, Yicun; Yin, Hujun

2018-05-01

Many real-world problems require modeling and forecasting of time series, such as weather temperature, electricity demand, stock prices and foreign exchange (FX) rates. Often, the tasks involve predicting over a long-term period, e.g. several weeks or months. Most existing time series models are inheritably for one-step prediction, that is, predicting one time point ahead. Multi-step or long-term prediction is difficult and challenging due to the lack of information and uncertainty or error accumulation. The main existing approaches, iterative and independent, either use one-step model recursively or treat the multi-step task as an independent model. They generally perform poorly in practical applications. In this paper, as an extension of the self-organizing mixture autoregressive (AR) model, the varied length mixture (VLM) models are proposed to model and forecast time series over multi-steps. The key idea is to preserve the dependencies between the time points within the prediction horizon. Training data are segmented to various lengths corresponding to various forecasting horizons, and the VLM models are trained in a self-organizing fashion on these segments to capture these dependencies in its component AR models of various predicting horizons. The VLM models form a probabilistic mixture of these varied length models. A combination of short and long VLM models and an ensemble of them are proposed to further enhance the prediction performance. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and their marked improvements over the existing methods are demonstrated through a number of experiments on synthetic data, real-world FX rates and weather temperatures.

Near infrared spectrometric technique for testing fruit quality: optimisation of regression models using genetic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isingizwe Nturambirwe, J. Frédéric; Perold, Willem J.; Opara, Umezuruike L.

2016-02-01

Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has gained extensive use in quality evaluation. It is arguably one of the most advanced spectroscopic tools in non-destructive quality testing of food stuff, from measurement to data analysis and interpretation. NIR spectral data are interpreted through means often involving multivariate statistical analysis, sometimes associated with optimisation techniques for model improvement. The objective of this research was to explore the extent to which genetic algorithms (GA) can be used to enhance model development, for predicting fruit quality. Apple fruits were used, and NIR spectra in the range from 12000 to 4000 cm-1 were acquired on both bruised and healthy tissues, with different degrees of mechanical damage. GAs were used in combination with partial least squares regression methods to develop bruise severity prediction models, and compared to PLS models developed using the full NIR spectrum. A classification model was developed, which clearly separated bruised from unbruised apple tissue. GAs helped improve prediction models by over 10%, in comparison with full spectrum-based models, as evaluated in terms of error of prediction (Root Mean Square Error of Cross-validation). PLS models to predict internal quality, such as sugar content and acidity were developed and compared to the versions optimized by genetic algorithm. Overall, the results highlighted the potential use of GA method to improve speed and accuracy of fruit quality prediction.

Influence of Different Yield Loci on Failure Prediction with Damage Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heibel, S.; Nester, W.; Clausmeyer, T.; Tekkaya, A. E.

2017-09-01

Advanced high strength steels are widely used in the automotive industry to simultaneously improve crash performance and reduce the car body weight. A drawback of these multiphase steels is their sensitivity to damage effects and thus the reduction of ductility. For that reason the Forming Limit Curve is only partially suitable for this class of steels. An improvement in failure prediction can be obtained by using damage mechanics. The objective of this paper is to comparatively review the phenomenological damage model GISSMO and the Enhanced Lemaitre Damage Model. GISSMO is combined with three different yield loci, namely von Mises, Hill48 and Barlat2000 to investigate the influence of the choice of the plasticity description on damage modelling. The Enhanced Lemaitre Model is used with Hill48. An inverse parameter identification strategy for a DP1000 based on stress-strain curves and optical strain measurements of shear, uniaxial, notch and (equi-)biaxial tension tests is applied to calibrate the models. A strong dependency of fracture strains on the choice of yield locus can be observed. The identified models are validated on a cross-die cup showing ductile fracture with slight necking.

Development and Implementation of CFD-Informed Models for the Advanced Subchannel Code CTF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blyth, Taylor S.; Avramova, Maria

The research described in this PhD thesis contributes to the development of efficient methods for utilization of high-fidelity models and codes to inform low-fidelity models and codes in the area of nuclear reactor core thermal-hydraulics. The objective is to increase the accuracy of predictions of quantities of interests using high-fidelity CFD models while preserving the efficiency of low-fidelity subchannel core calculations. An original methodology named Physics- based Approach for High-to-Low Model Information has been further developed and tested. The overall physical phenomena and corresponding localized effects, which are introduced by the presence of spacer grids in light water reactor (LWR)more » cores, are dissected in corresponding four building basic processes, and corresponding models are informed using high-fidelity CFD codes. These models are a spacer grid-directed cross-flow model, a grid-enhanced turbulent mixing model, a heat transfer enhancement model, and a spacer grid pressure loss model. The localized CFD-models are developed and tested using the CFD code STAR-CCM+, and the corresponding global model development and testing in sub-channel formulation is performed in the thermal- hydraulic subchannel code CTF. The improved CTF simulations utilize data-files derived from CFD STAR-CCM+ simulation results covering the spacer grid design desired for inclusion in the CTF calculation. The current implementation of these models is examined and possibilities for improvement and further development are suggested. The validation experimental database is extended by including the OECD/NRC PSBT benchmark data. The outcome is an enhanced accuracy of CTF predictions while preserving the computational efficiency of a low-fidelity subchannel code.« less

Development and Implementation of CFD-Informed Models for the Advanced Subchannel Code CTF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blyth, Taylor S.

The research described in this PhD thesis contributes to the development of efficient methods for utilization of high-fidelity models and codes to inform low-fidelity models and codes in the area of nuclear reactor core thermal-hydraulics. The objective is to increase the accuracy of predictions of quantities of interests using high-fidelity CFD models while preserving the efficiency of low-fidelity subchannel core calculations. An original methodology named Physics-based Approach for High-to-Low Model Information has been further developed and tested. The overall physical phenomena and corresponding localized effects, which are introduced by the presence of spacer grids in light water reactor (LWR) cores, are dissected in corresponding four building basic processes, and corresponding models are informed using high-fidelity CFD codes. These models are a spacer grid-directed cross-flow model, a grid-enhanced turbulent mixing model, a heat transfer enhancement model, and a spacer grid pressure loss model. The localized CFD-models are developed and tested using the CFD code STAR-CCM+, and the corresponding global model development and testing in sub-channel formulation is performed in the thermal-hydraulic subchannel code CTF. The improved CTF simulations utilize data-files derived from CFD STAR-CCM+ simulation results covering the spacer grid design desired for inclusion in the CTF calculation. The current implementation of these models is examined and possibilities for improvement and further development are suggested. The validation experimental database is extended by including the OECD/NRC PSBT benchmark data. The outcome is an enhanced accuracy of CTF predictions while preserving the computational efficiency of a low-fidelity subchannel code.

Logistic regression analysis of conventional ultrasonography, strain elastosonography, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound characteristics for the differentiation of benign and malignant thyroid nodules

PubMed Central

Deng, Yingyuan; Wang, Tianfu; Chen, Siping; Liu, Weixiang

2017-01-01

The aim of the study is to screen the significant sonographic features by logistic regression analysis and fit a model to diagnose thyroid nodules. A total of 525 pathological thyroid nodules were retrospectively analyzed. All the nodules underwent conventional ultrasonography (US), strain elastosonography (SE), and contrast -enhanced ultrasound (CEUS). Those nodules’ 12 suspicious sonographic features were used to assess thyroid nodules. The significant features of diagnosing thyroid nodules were picked out by logistic regression analysis. All variables that were statistically related to diagnosis of thyroid nodules, at a level of p < 0.05 were embodied in a logistic regression analysis model. The significant features in the logistic regression model of diagnosing thyroid nodules were calcification, suspected cervical lymph node metastasis, hypoenhancement pattern, margin, shape, vascularity, posterior acoustic, echogenicity, and elastography score. According to the results of logistic regression analysis, the formula that could predict whether or not thyroid nodules are malignant was established. The area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) was 0.930 and the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 83.77%, 89.56%, 87.05%, 86.04%, and 87.79% respectively. PMID:29228030

Logistic regression analysis of conventional ultrasonography, strain elastosonography, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound characteristics for the differentiation of benign and malignant thyroid nodules.

PubMed

Pang, Tiantian; Huang, Leidan; Deng, Yingyuan; Wang, Tianfu; Chen, Siping; Gong, Xuehao; Liu, Weixiang

2017-01-01

The aim of the study is to screen the significant sonographic features by logistic regression analysis and fit a model to diagnose thyroid nodules. A total of 525 pathological thyroid nodules were retrospectively analyzed. All the nodules underwent conventional ultrasonography (US), strain elastosonography (SE), and contrast -enhanced ultrasound (CEUS). Those nodules' 12 suspicious sonographic features were used to assess thyroid nodules. The significant features of diagnosing thyroid nodules were picked out by logistic regression analysis. All variables that were statistically related to diagnosis of thyroid nodules, at a level of p < 0.05 were embodied in a logistic regression analysis model. The significant features in the logistic regression model of diagnosing thyroid nodules were calcification, suspected cervical lymph node metastasis, hypoenhancement pattern, margin, shape, vascularity, posterior acoustic, echogenicity, and elastography score. According to the results of logistic regression analysis, the formula that could predict whether or not thyroid nodules are malignant was established. The area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) was 0.930 and the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 83.77%, 89.56%, 87.05%, 86.04%, and 87.79% respectively.

Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Solar energy is considered as one of the main sources for renewable energy in the near future. However, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have a drawback related to the difficulty in predicting their availability in the near future. This problem affects optimal exploitation of solar energy, especially in connection with other resources. Therefore, reliable solar energy prediction models are essential to solar energy management and economics. This paper presents work aimed at designing reliable models to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for the next day in 8 stations in Saudi Arabia. The designed models are based on computational intelligence methods of automated-design fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy logic systems are designed and optimized with two models using fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. The first model uses FCM based on the subtractive clustering algorithm to automatically design the predictor fuzzy rules from data. The second model is using FCM followed by simulated annealing algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy logic system. The objective of the predictor is to accurately predict next-day global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using previous-day meteorological and solar radiation observations. The proposed models use observations of 10 variables of measured meteorological and solar radiation data to build the model. The experimentation and results of the prediction are detailed where the root mean square error of the prediction was approximately 88% for the second model tuned by simulated annealing compared to 79.75% accuracy using the first model. This results demonstrate a good modeling accuracy of the second model despite that the training and testing of the proposed models were carried out using spatially and temporally independent data. PMID:28806754

Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems.

PubMed

Almaraashi, Majid

2017-01-01

Solar energy is considered as one of the main sources for renewable energy in the near future. However, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have a drawback related to the difficulty in predicting their availability in the near future. This problem affects optimal exploitation of solar energy, especially in connection with other resources. Therefore, reliable solar energy prediction models are essential to solar energy management and economics. This paper presents work aimed at designing reliable models to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for the next day in 8 stations in Saudi Arabia. The designed models are based on computational intelligence methods of automated-design fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy logic systems are designed and optimized with two models using fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. The first model uses FCM based on the subtractive clustering algorithm to automatically design the predictor fuzzy rules from data. The second model is using FCM followed by simulated annealing algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy logic system. The objective of the predictor is to accurately predict next-day global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using previous-day meteorological and solar radiation observations. The proposed models use observations of 10 variables of measured meteorological and solar radiation data to build the model. The experimentation and results of the prediction are detailed where the root mean square error of the prediction was approximately 88% for the second model tuned by simulated annealing compared to 79.75% accuracy using the first model. This results demonstrate a good modeling accuracy of the second model despite that the training and testing of the proposed models were carried out using spatially and temporally independent data.

Dry Heat Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis var. niger Spores as a Function of Relative Humidity

PubMed Central

Brannen, J. P.; Garst, D. M.

1972-01-01

Dry heat sterilization of Bacillus subtilis var. niger spores at 105 C is enhanced in the relative humidity range 0.03 to 0.2%. D-values of 115 and 125 C are predicted by a kinetic model with parameters set from 105 C data. These predictions are compared to observations. Images PMID:4625341

Predicting mortality among older adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia: an enhanced confusion, urea, respiratory rate and blood pressure score compared with pneumonia severity index.

PubMed

Abisheganaden, John; Ding, Yew Yoong; Chong, Wai-Fung; Heng, Bee-Hoon; Lim, Tow Keang

2012-08-01

Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) predicts mortality better than Confusion, Urea >7 mmol/L, Respiratory rate >30/min, low Blood pressure: diastolic blood pressure <60 mm Hg or systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg, and age >65 years (CURB-65) for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) but is more cumbersome. The objective was to determine whether CURB enhanced with a small number of additional variables can predict mortality with at least the same accuracy as PSI. Retrospective review of medical records and administrative data of adults aged 55 years or older hospitalized for CAP over 1 year from three hospitals. For 1052 hospital admissions of unique patients, 30-day mortality was 17.2%. PSI class and CURB-65 predicted 30-day mortality with area under curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.80) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66-0.74) respectively. When age and three co-morbid conditions (metastatic cancer, solid tumours without metastases and stroke) were added to CURB, the AUC improved to 0.80 (95% CI: 0.77-0.83). Bootstrap validation obtained an AUC estimate of 0.78, indicating negligible overfitting of the model. Based on this model, a clinical score (enhanced CURB score) was developed that had possible values from 5 to 25. Its AUC was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83) and remained similar to that of PSI class. An enhanced CURB score predicted 30-day mortality with at least the same accuracy as PSI class did among older adults hospitalized for CAP. External validation of this score in other populations is the next step to determine whether it can be used more widely. © 2012 The Authors. Respirology © 2012 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myronakis, M; Cai, W; Dhou, S

Purpose: To determine if 4DCT-based motion modeling and external surrogate motion measured during treatment simulation can enhance prediction of residual tumor motion and duty cycle during treatment delivery. Methods: This experiment was conducted using simultaneously recorded tumor and external surrogate motion acquired over multiple fractions of lung cancer radiotherapy. These breathing traces were combined with the XCAT phantom to simulate CT images. Data from the first day was used to estimate the residual tumor motion and duty cycle both directly from the 4DCT (the current clinical standard), and from external-surrogate based motion modeling. The accuracy of these estimated residual tumormore » motions and duty cycles are evaluated by comparing to the measured internal/external motions from other treatment days. Results: All calculations were done for 25% and 50% duty cycles. The results indicated that duty cycle derived from 4DCT information alone is not enough to accurately predict duty cycles during treatment. Residual tumor motion was determined from the recorded data and compared with the estimated residual tumor motion from 4DCT. Relative differences in residual tumor motion varied from −30% to 55%, suggesting that more information is required to properly predict residual tumor motion. Compared to estimations made from 4DCT, in three out of four patients examined, the 30 seconds of motion modeling data was able to predict the duty cycle with better accuracy than 4DCT. No improvement was observed in prediction of residual tumor motion for this dataset. Conclusion: Motion modeling during simulation has the potential to enhance 4DCT and provide more information about target motion, duty cycles, and delivered dose. Based on these four patients, 30 seconds of motion modeling data produced improve duty cycle estimations but showed no measurable improvement in residual tumor motion prediction. More patient data is needed to verify this Result. I would like to acknowledge funding from MRA, VARIAN Medical Systems, Inc.« less

A predictive model for assistive technology adoption for people with dementia.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuai; McClean, Sally I; Nugent, Chris D; Donnelly, Mark P; Galway, Leo; Scotney, Bryan W; Cleland, Ian

2014-01-01

Assistive technology has the potential to enhance the level of independence of people with dementia, thereby increasing the possibility of supporting home-based care. In general, people with dementia are reluctant to change; therefore, it is important that suitable assistive technologies are selected for them. Consequently, the development of predictive models that are able to determine a person's potential to adopt a particular technology is desirable. In this paper, a predictive adoption model for a mobile phone-based video streaming system, developed for people with dementia, is presented. Taking into consideration characteristics related to a person's ability, living arrangements, and preferences, this paper discusses the development of predictive models, which were based on a number of carefully selected data mining algorithms for classification. For each, the learning on different relevant features for technology adoption has been tested, in conjunction with handling the imbalance of available data for output classes. Given our focus on providing predictive tools that could be used and interpreted by healthcare professionals, models with ease-of-use, intuitive understanding, and clear decision making processes are preferred. Predictive models have, therefore, been evaluated on a multi-criterion basis: in terms of their prediction performance, robustness, bias with regard to two types of errors and usability. Overall, the model derived from incorporating a k-Nearest-Neighbour algorithm using seven features was found to be the optimal classifier of assistive technology adoption for people with dementia (prediction accuracy 0.84 ± 0.0242).

Comparison of the predictive validity of diagnosis-based risk adjusters for clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Petersen, Laura A; Pietz, Kenneth; Woodard, LeChauncy D; Byrne, Margaret

2005-01-01

Many possible methods of risk adjustment exist, but there is a dearth of comparative data on their performance. We compared the predictive validity of 2 widely used methods (Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs] and Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs]) for 2 clinical outcomes using a large national sample of patients. We studied all patients who used Veterans Health Administration (VA) medical services in fiscal year (FY) 2001 (n = 3,069,168) and assigned both a DCG and an ACG to each. We used logistic regression analyses to compare predictive ability for death or long-term care (LTC) hospitalization for age/gender models, DCG models, and ACG models. We also assessed the effect of adding age to the DCG and ACG models. Patients in the highest DCG categories, indicating higher severity of illness, were more likely to die or to require LTC hospitalization. Surprisingly, the age/gender model predicted death slightly more accurately than the ACG model (c-statistic of 0.710 versus 0.700, respectively). The addition of age to the ACG model improved the c-statistic to 0.768. The highest c-statistic for prediction of death was obtained with a DCG/age model (0.830). The lowest c-statistics were obtained for age/gender models for LTC hospitalization (c-statistic 0.593). The c-statistic for use of ACGs to predict LTC hospitalization was 0.783, and improved to 0.792 with the addition of age. The c-statistics for use of DCGs and DCG/age to predict LTC hospitalization were 0.885 and 0.890, respectively, indicating the best prediction. We found that risk adjusters based upon diagnoses predicted an increased likelihood of death or LTC hospitalization, exhibiting good predictive validity. In this comparative analysis using VA data, DCG models were generally superior to ACG models in predicting clinical outcomes, although ACG model performance was enhanced by the addition of age.

Referenceless perceptual fog density prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Lark Kwon; You, Jaehee; Bovik, Alan C.

2014-02-01

We propose a perceptual fog density prediction model based on natural scene statistics (NSS) and "fog aware" statistical features, which can predict the visibility in a foggy scene from a single image without reference to a corresponding fogless image, without side geographical camera information, without training on human-rated judgments, and without dependency on salient objects such as lane markings or traffic signs. The proposed fog density predictor only makes use of measurable deviations from statistical regularities observed in natural foggy and fog-free images. A fog aware collection of statistical features is derived from a corpus of foggy and fog-free images by using a space domain NSS model and observed characteristics of foggy images such as low contrast, faint color, and shifted intensity. The proposed model not only predicts perceptual fog density for the entire image but also provides a local fog density index for each patch. The predicted fog density of the model correlates well with the measured visibility in a foggy scene as measured by judgments taken in a human subjective study on a large foggy image database. As one application, the proposed model accurately evaluates the performance of defog algorithms designed to enhance the visibility of foggy images.

Navier-Stokes turbine heat transfer predictions using two-equation turbulence closures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ameri, Ali A.; Arnone, Andrea

1992-01-01

Navier-Stokes calculations were carried out in order to predict the heat-transfer rates on turbine blades. The calculations were performed using TRAF2D which is a k-epsilon, explicit, finite volume mass-averaged Navier-Stokes solver. Turbulence was modeled using Coakley's q-omega and Chien's k-epsilon two-equation models and the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic model. The model equations along with the flow equations were solved explicitly on a nonperiodic C grid. Implicit residual smoothing (IRS) or a combination of multigrid technique and IRS was applied to enhance convergence rates. Calculations were performed to predict the Stanton number distributions on the first stage vane and blade row as well as the second stage vane row of the SSME high-pressure fuel turbine. The comparison serves to highlight the weaknesses of the turbulence models for use in turbomachinery heat-transfer calculations.

NT-proBNP is associated with coronary heart disease risk in healthy older women but fails to enhance prediction beyond established risk factors: results from the British Women's Heart and Health Study.

PubMed

Sattar, Naveed; Welsh, Paul; Sarwar, Nadeem; Danesh, John; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Davey Smith, George; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A

2010-03-01

Limited evidence suggests NT-proBNP improves prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events but further data are needed, especially in people without pre-existing CHD and in women. We measured NT-proBNP in serum from 162 women with incident CHD events and 1226 controls (60-79 years) in a case-control study nested within the prospective British Women's Heart and Health Study. All cases and controls were free from CHD at baseline. We related NT-proBNP to CHD event risk, and determined to what extent NT-proBNP enhanced CHD risk prediction beyond established risk factors. The odds ratio for CHD per 1 standard deviation increase in log(e)NT-proBNP was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.13-1.68) in analyses adjusted for established CHD risk factors, social class, CRP and insulin. However, addition of log(e)NT-proBNP did not improve the discrimination of a prediction model including age, social class, smoking, physical activity, lipids, fasting glucose, waist:hip ratio, hypertension, statin and aspirin use, nor a standard Framingham risk score model; area under the receiver operator curve for the former model increased from 0.676 to 0.687 on inclusion of NT-proBNP (p=0.3). Furthermore, adding NT-proBNP did not improve calibration of a prediction model containing established risk factors, nor did inclusion more appropriately re-classify participants in relation to their final outcome. Findings were similar (independent associations, but no prediction improvement) for fasting insulin and CRP. These results caution against use of NT-proBNP for CHD risk prediction in healthy women and suggest a need for larger studies in both genders to resolve outstanding uncertainties.

Predicting Readmission at Early Hospitalization Using Electronic Clinical Data: An Early Readmission Risk Score.

PubMed

Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; Gupta, Vikas; Johannes, Richard S

2017-03-01

Identifying patients at high risk for readmission early during hospitalization may aid efforts in reducing readmissions. We sought to develop an early readmission risk predictive model using automated clinical data available at hospital admission. We developed an early readmission risk model using a derivation cohort and validated the model with a validation cohort. We used a published Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score as an aggregated measure of clinical severity at admission and the number of hospital discharges in the previous 90 days as a measure of disease progression. We then evaluated the administrative data-enhanced model by adding principal and secondary diagnoses and other variables. We examined the c-statistic change when additional variables were added to the model. There were 1,195,640 adult discharges from 70 hospitals with 39.8% male and the median age of 63 years (first and third quartile: 43, 78). The 30-day readmission rate was 11.9% (n=142,211). The early readmission model yielded a graded relationship of readmission and the Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score and the number of previous discharges within 90 days. The model c-statistic was 0.697 with good calibration. When administrative variables were added to the model, the c-statistic increased to 0.722. Automated clinical data can generate a readmission risk score early at hospitalization with fair discrimination. It may have applied value to aid early care transition. Adding administrative data increases predictive accuracy. The administrative data-enhanced model may be used for hospital comparison and outcome research.

Comment on “Large Enhancement in High-Energy Photoionization of Fe XVII and Missing Continuum Plasma Opacity”

DOE PAGES

Blancard, C.; Colgan, J.; Cosse, Ph.; ...

2016-12-09

Recent R-matrix calculations claim to provide a significant enhancement in the opacity of Fe XVII due to atomic core excitations and assert that this enhancement is consistent with recent measurements of higher-than-predicted iron opacities. Here this comment shows that the standard opacity models which have already been directly compared with experimental data produce photon absorption cross-sections for Fe XVII that are effectively equivalent to the R-matrix opacities reported in.

Survival Regression Modeling Strategies in CVD Prediction.

PubMed

Barkhordari, Mahnaz; Padyab, Mojgan; Sardarinia, Mahsa; Hadaegh, Farzad; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bozorgmanesh, Mohammadreza

2016-04-01

A fundamental part of prevention is prediction. Potential predictors are the sine qua non of prediction models. However, whether incorporating novel predictors to prediction models could be directly translated to added predictive value remains an area of dispute. The difference between the predictive power of a predictive model with (enhanced model) and without (baseline model) a certain predictor is generally regarded as an indicator of the predictive value added by that predictor. Indices such as discrimination and calibration have long been used in this regard. Recently, the use of added predictive value has been suggested while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models with and without novel biomarkers. User-friendly statistical software capable of implementing novel statistical procedures is conspicuously lacking. This shortcoming has restricted implementation of such novel model assessment methods. We aimed to construct Stata commands to help researchers obtain the aforementioned statistical indices. We have written Stata commands that are intended to help researchers obtain the following. 1, Nam-D'Agostino X 2 goodness of fit test; 2, Cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index (NRI), relative absolute integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI), and survival-based regression analyses. We applied the commands to real data on women participating in the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information relating to a family history of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD), waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of Framingham's general CVD risk algorithm. The command is adpredsurv for survival models. Herein we have described the Stata package "adpredsurv" for calculation of the Nam-D'Agostino X 2 goodness of fit test as well as cut point-free and cut point-based NRI, relative and absolute IDI, and survival-based regression analyses. We hope this work encourages the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of the emerging plethora of novel biomarkers.

Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

PubMed

Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

2017-08-07

In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

Modelling postharvest quality of blueberry affected by biological variability using image and spectral data.

PubMed

Hu, Meng-Han; Dong, Qing-Li; Liu, Bao-Lin

2016-08-01

Hyperspectral reflectance and transmittance sensing as well as near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy were investigated as non-destructive tools for estimating blueberry firmness, elastic modulus and soluble solid content (SSC). Least squares-support vector machine models were established from these three spectra based on samples from three cultivars viz. Bluecrop, Duke and M2 and two harvest years viz. 2014 and 2015 for predicting blueberry postharvest quality. One-cultivar reflectance models (establishing model using one cultivar) derived better results than the corresponding transmittance and NIR models for predicting blueberry firmness with few cultivar effects. Two-cultivar NIR models (establishing model using two cultivars) proved to be suitable for estimating blueberry SSC with correlations over 0.83. Rp (RMSEp ) values of the three-cultivar reflectance models (establishing model using 75% of three cultivars) were 0.73 (0.094) and 0.73 (0.186), respectively , for predicting blueberry firmness and elastic modulus. For SSC prediction, the three-cultivar NIR model was found to achieve an Rp (RMSEp ) value of 0.85 (0.090). Adding Bluecrop samples harvested in 2014 could enhance the three-cultivar model robustness for firmness and elastic modulus. The above results indicated the potential for using spatial and spectral techniques to develop robust models for predicting blueberry postharvest quality containing biological variability. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by improving the model sensitivity to vegetation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; Hurk, B. V. D.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2017-12-01

Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that the implementation of a realistic representation of vegetation in Earth System Models (ESMs) can significantly improve climate simulation and prediction across multiple time-scales. The effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the surface resistance to evapotranspiration, albedo, roughness lenght, and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in the EC-Earth ESM, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the Leaf Area Index.By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal (2-4 months) and weather (4 days) time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation-cover consistently correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.Above results are discussed in a peer-review paper just being accepted for publication on Climate Dynamics (Alessandri et al., 2017; doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3766-y).

Influence of surface wettability on transport mechanisms governing water droplet evaporation.

PubMed

Pan, Zhenhai; Weibel, Justin A; Garimella, Suresh V

2014-08-19

Prediction and manipulation of the evaporation of small droplets is a fundamental problem with importance in a variety of microfluidic, microfabrication, and biomedical applications. A vapor-diffusion-based model has been widely employed to predict the interfacial evaporation rate; however, its scope of applicability is limited due to incorporation of a number of simplifying assumptions of the physical behavior. Two key transport mechanisms besides vapor diffusion-evaporative cooling and natural convection in the surrounding gas-are investigated here as a function of the substrate wettability using an augmented droplet evaporation model. Three regimes are distinguished by the instantaneous contact angle (CA). In Regime I (CA ≲ 60°), the flat droplet shape results in a small thermal resistance between the liquid-vapor interface and substrate, which mitigates the effect of evaporative cooling; upward gas-phase natural convection enhances evaporation. In Regime II (60 ≲ CA ≲ 90°), evaporative cooling at the interface suppresses evaporation with increasing contact angle and counterbalances the gas-phase convection enhancement. Because effects of the evaporative cooling and gas-phase convection mechanisms largely neutralize each other, the vapor-diffusion-based model can predict the overall evaporation rates in this regime. In Regime III (CA ≳ 90°), evaporative cooling suppresses the evaporation rate significantly and reverses entirely the direction of natural convection induced by vapor concentration gradients in the gas phase. Delineation of these counteracting mechanisms reconciles previous debate (founded on single-surface experiments or models that consider only a subset of the governing transport mechanisms) regarding the applicability of the classic vapor-diffusion model. The vapor diffusion-based model cannot predict the local evaporation flux along the interface for high contact angle (CA ≥ 90°) when evaporative cooling is strong and the temperature gradient along the interface determines the peak local evaporation flux.

A model to predict radon exhalation from walls to indoor air based on the exhalation from building material samples.

PubMed

Sahoo, B K; Sapra, B K; Gaware, J J; Kanse, S D; Mayya, Y S

2011-06-01

In recognition of the fact that building materials are an important source of indoor radon, second only to soil, surface radon exhalation fluxes have been extensively measured from the samples of these materials. Based on this flux data, several researchers have attempted to predict the inhalation dose attributable to radon emitted from walls and ceilings made up of these materials. However, an important aspect not considered in this methodology is the enhancement of the radon flux from the wall or the ceiling constructed using the same building material. This enhancement occurs mainly because of the change in the radon diffusion process from the former to the latter configuration. To predict the true radon flux from the wall based on the flux data of building material samples, we now propose a semi-empirical model involving radon diffusion length and the physical dimensions of the samples as well as wall thickness as other input parameters. This model has been established by statistically fitting the ratio of the solution to radon diffusion equations for the cases of three-dimensional cuboidal shaped building materials (such as brick, concrete block) and one dimensional wall system to a simple mathematical function. The model predictions have been validated against the measurements made at a new construction site. This model provides an alternative tool (substitute to conventional 1-D model) to estimate radon flux from a wall without relying on ²²⁶Ra content, radon emanation factor and bulk density of the samples. Moreover, it may be very useful in the context of developing building codes for radon regulation in new buildings. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational Models of Human Performance: Validation of Memory and Procedural Representation in Advanced Air/Ground Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corker, Kevin M.; Labacqz, J. Victor (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The Man-Machine Interaction Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) under joint U.S. Army and NASA cooperative is intended to assist designers of complex human/automation systems in successfully incorporating human performance capabilities and limitations into decision and action support systems. MIDAS is a computational representation of multiple human operators, selected perceptual, cognitive, and physical functions of those operators, and the physical/functional representation of the equipment with which they operate. MIDAS has been used as an integrated predictive framework for the investigation of human/machine systems, particularly in situations with high demands on the operators. We have extended the human performance models to include representation of both human operators and intelligent aiding systems in flight management, and air traffic service. The focus of this development is to predict human performance in response to aiding system developed to identify aircraft conflict and to assist in the shared authority for resolution. The demands of this application requires representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, coordinating action/intention, and cooperative scheduling of goals and action in an somewhat unpredictable world of operations. In recent applications to airborne systems development, MIDAS has demonstrated an ability to predict flight crew decision-making and procedural behavior when interacting with automated flight management systems and Air Traffic Control. In this paper, we describe two enhancements to MIDAS. The first involves the addition of working memory in the form of an articulatory buffer for verbal communication protocols and a visuo-spatial buffer for communications via digital datalink. The second enhancement is a representation of multiple operators working as a team. This enhanced model was used to predict the performance of human flight crews and their level of compliance with commercial aviation communication procedures. We show how the data produced by MIDAS compares with flight crew performance data from full mission simulations. Finally, we discuss the use of these features to study communication issues connected with aircraft-based separation assurance.

Enhancing prediction power of chemometric models through manipulation of the fed spectrophotometric data: A comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saad, Ahmed S.; Hamdy, Abdallah M.; Salama, Fathy M.; Abdelkawy, Mohamed

2016-10-01

Effect of data manipulation in preprocessing step proceeding construction of chemometric models was assessed. The same set of UV spectral data was used for construction of PLS and PCR models directly and after mathematically manipulation as per well known first and second derivatives of the absorption spectra, ratio spectra and first and second derivatives of the ratio spectra spectrophotometric methods, meanwhile the optimal working wavelength ranges were carefully selected for each model and the models were constructed. Unexpectedly, number of latent variables used for models' construction varied among the different methods. The prediction power of the different models was compared using a validation set of 8 mixtures prepared as per the multilevel multifactor design and results were statistically compared using two-way ANOVA test. Root mean squares error of prediction (RMSEP) was used for further comparison of the predictability among different constructed models. Although no significant difference was found between results obtained using Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, however, discrepancies among results was found to be attributed to the variation in the discrimination power of adopted spectrophotometric methods on spectral data.

Towards a chromatographic similarity index to establish localised quantitative structure-retention relationships for retention prediction. II Use of Tanimoto similarity index in ion chromatography.

PubMed

Park, Soo Hyun; Talebi, Mohammad; Amos, Ruth I J; Tyteca, Eva; Haddad, Paul R; Szucs, Roman; Pohl, Christopher A; Dolan, John W

2017-11-10

Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationships (QSRR) are used to predict retention times of compounds based only on their chemical structures encoded by molecular descriptors. The main concern in QSRR modelling is to build models with high predictive power, allowing reliable retention prediction for the unknown compounds across the chromatographic space. With the aim of enhancing the prediction power of the models, in this work, our previously proposed QSRR modelling approach called "federation of local models" is extended in ion chromatography to predict retention times of unknown ions, where a local model for each target ion (unknown) is created using only structurally similar ions from the dataset. A Tanimoto similarity (TS) score was utilised as a measure of structural similarity and training sets were developed by including ions that were similar to the target ion, as defined by a threshold value. The prediction of retention parameters (a- and b-values) in the linear solvent strength (LSS) model in ion chromatography, log k=a - blog[eluent], allows the prediction of retention times under all eluent concentrations. The QSRR models for a- and b-values were developed by a genetic algorithm-partial least squares method using the retention data of inorganic and small organic anions and larger organic cations (molecular mass up to 507) on four Thermo Fisher Scientific columns (AS20, AS19, AS11HC and CS17). The corresponding predicted retention times were calculated by fitting the predicted a- and b-values of the models into the LSS model equation. The predicted retention times were also plotted against the experimental values to evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the models. The application of a TS threshold of 0.6 was found to successfully produce predictive and reliable QSRR models (Q ext(F2) 2 >0.8 and Mean Absolute Error<0.1), and hence accurate retention time predictions with an average Mean Absolute Error of 0.2min. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implications of the Declarative/Procedural Model for Improving Second Language Learning: The Role of Memory Enhancement Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ullman, Michael T.; Lovelett, Jarrett T.

2018-01-01

The declarative/procedural (DP) model posits that the learning, storage, and use of language critically depend on two learning and memory systems in the brain: declarative memory and procedural memory. Thus, on the basis of independent research on the memory systems, the model can generate specific and often novel predictions for language. Till…

Dynamic modeling of nitrogen removal for a three-stage integrated fixed-film activated sludge process treating municipal wastewater.

PubMed

Moretti, Paul; Choubert, Jean-Marc; Canler, Jean-Pierre; Buffière, Pierre; Pétrimaux, Olivier; Lessard, Paul

2018-02-01

The integrated fixed-film activated sludge (IFAS) process is being increasingly used to enhance nitrogen removal for former activated sludge systems. The aim of this work is to evaluate a numerical model of a new nitrifying/denitrifying IFAS configuration. It consists of two carrier-free reactors (anoxic and aerobic) and one IFAS reactor with a filling ratio of 43% of carriers, followed by a clarifier. Simulations were carried out with GPS-X involving the nitrification reaction combined with a 1D heterogeneous biofilm model, including attachment/detachment processes. An original iterative calibration protocol was created comprising four steps and nine actions. Experimental campaigns were carried out to collect data on the pilot in operation, specifically for modelling purpose. The model used was able to predict properly the variations of the activated sludge (bulk) and the biofilm masses, the nitrification rates of both the activated sludge and the biofilm, and the nitrogen concentration in the effluent for short (4-10 days) and long (300 days) simulation runs. A calibrated parameter set is proposed (biokinetics, detachment, diffusion) related to the activated sludge, the biofilm and the effluent variables to enhance the model prediction on hourly and daily data sets.

Jet impingement heat transfer enhancement for the GPU-3 Stirling engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. C.; Congdon, C. W.; Begg, L. L.; Britt, E. J.; Thieme, L. G.

1981-01-01

A computer model of the combustion-gas-side heat transfer was developed to predict the effects of a jet impingement system and the possible range of improvements available. Using low temperature (315 C (600 F)) pretest data in an updated model, a high temperature silicon carbide jet impingement heat transfer system was designed and fabricated. The system model predicted that at the theoretical maximum limit, jet impingement enhanced heat transfer can: (1) reduce the flame temperature by 275 C (500 F); (2) reduce the exhaust temperature by 110 C (200 F); and (3) increase the overall heat into the working fluid by 10%, all for an increase in required pumping power of less than 0.5% of the engine power output. Initial tests on the GPU-3 Stirling engine at NASA-Lewis demonstrated that the jet impingement system increased the engine output power and efficiency by 5% - 8% with no measurable increase in pumping power. The overall heat transfer coefficient was increased by 65% for the maximum power point of the tests.

The ^132Sn + ^96Zr reaction: a study of fusion enhancement/hindrance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loveland, Walter; Vinodkumar, A. M.; Neeway, James; Sprunger, Peter; Prisbrey, Landon; Peterson, Donald; Liang, J. F.; Shapira, Dan; Gross, C. J.; Varner, R. L.; Kolata, J. J.; Roberts, A.; Caraley, A. L.

2008-10-01

Capture-fission cross sections were measured for the collision of the massive nucleus ^132Sn with ^96Zr at center of mass energies ranging from 192.8 to 249.6 MeV in an attempt to study fusion enhancement and hindrance in this reaction involving very neutron-rich nuclei. Coincident fission fragments were detected using silicon detectors. Using angle and energy conditions, deep inelastic scattering events were separated from fission events. Coupled channels calculations can describe the data if the surface diffuseness parameter, a, is allowed to be 1.10 fm, instead of the customary 0.6 fm. The measured capture-fission cross sections agree moderately well with model calculations using the dinuclear system (DNS) model. If we use this model to predict fusion barrier heights for these reactions, we find the predicted fusion hindrance, as represented by the extra push energy, is greater for the more neutron-rich system, lessening the advantage of the lower interaction barriers with neutron rich projectiles.

132Sn+96Zr reaction: A study of fusion enhancement/hindrance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinodkumar, A. M.; Loveland, W.; Neeway, J. J.; Prisbrey, L.; Sprunger, P. H.; Peterson, D.; Liang, J. F.; Shapira, D.; Gross, C. J.; Varner, R. L.; Kolata, J. J.; Roberts, A.; Caraley, A. L.

2008-11-01

Capture-fission cross sections were measured for the collision of the massive nucleus Sn132 with Zr96 at center-of-mass energies ranging from 192.8 to 249.6 MeV in an attempt to study fusion enhancement and hindrance in this reaction involving very neutron-rich nuclei. Coincident fission fragments were detected using silicon detectors. Using angle and energy conditions, deep inelastic scattering events were separated from fission events. Coupled-channels calculations can describe the data if the surface diffuseness parameter, a, is allowed to be 1.10 fm instead of the customary 0.6 fm. The measured capture-fission cross sections agree moderately well with model calculations using the dinuclear system model. If we use this model to predict fusion barrier heights for these reactions, we find the predicted fusion hindrance, as represented by the extra push energy, is greater for the more neutron-rich system, lessening the advantage of the lower interaction barriers with neutron-rich projectiles.

An Efficient Recommendation Filter Model on Smart Home Big Data Analytics for Enhanced Living Environments.

PubMed

Chen, Hao; Xie, Xiaoyun; Shu, Wanneng; Xiong, Naixue

2016-10-15

With the rapid growth of wireless sensor applications, the user interfaces and configurations of smart homes have become so complicated and inflexible that users usually have to spend a great amount of time studying them and adapting to their expected operation. In order to improve user experience, a weighted hybrid recommender system based on a Kalman Filter model is proposed to predict what users might want to do next, especially when users are located in a smart home with an enhanced living environment. Specifically, a weight hybridization method was introduced, which combines contextual collaborative filter and the contextual content-based recommendations. This method inherits the advantages of the optimum regression and the stability features of the proposed adaptive Kalman Filter model, and it can predict and revise the weight of each system component dynamically. Experimental results show that the hybrid recommender system can optimize the distribution of weights of each component, and achieve more reasonable recall and precision rates.

An Efficient Recommendation Filter Model on Smart Home Big Data Analytics for Enhanced Living Environments

PubMed Central

Chen, Hao; Xie, Xiaoyun; Shu, Wanneng; Xiong, Naixue

2016-01-01

With the rapid growth of wireless sensor applications, the user interfaces and configurations of smart homes have become so complicated and inflexible that users usually have to spend a great amount of time studying them and adapting to their expected operation. In order to improve user experience, a weighted hybrid recommender system based on a Kalman Filter model is proposed to predict what users might want to do next, especially when users are located in a smart home with an enhanced living environment. Specifically, a weight hybridization method was introduced, which combines contextual collaborative filter and the contextual content-based recommendations. This method inherits the advantages of the optimum regression and the stability features of the proposed adaptive Kalman Filter model, and it can predict and revise the weight of each system component dynamically. Experimental results show that the hybrid recommender system can optimize the distribution of weights of each component, and achieve more reasonable recall and precision rates. PMID:27754456

One wouldn't expect an expert bowler to hit only two pins: Hierarchical predictive processing of agent-caused events.

PubMed

Heil, Lieke; Kwisthout, Johan; van Pelt, Stan; van Rooij, Iris; Bekkering, Harold

2018-01-01

Evidence is accumulating that our brains process incoming information using top-down predictions. If lower level representations are correctly predicted by higher level representations, this enhances processing. However, if they are incorrectly predicted, additional processing is required at higher levels to "explain away" prediction errors. Here, we explored the potential nature of the models generating such predictions. More specifically, we investigated whether a predictive processing model with a hierarchical structure and causal relations between its levels is able to account for the processing of agent-caused events. In Experiment 1, participants watched animated movies of "experienced" and "novice" bowlers. The results are in line with the idea that prediction errors at a lower level of the hierarchy (i.e., the outcome of how many pins fell down) slow down reporting of information at a higher level (i.e., which agent was throwing the ball). Experiments 2 and 3 suggest that this effect is specific to situations in which the predictor is causally related to the outcome. Overall, the study supports the idea that a hierarchical predictive processing model can account for the processing of observed action outcomes and that the predictions involved are specific to cases where action outcomes can be predicted based on causal knowledge.

Interplay between Antibiotic Efficacy and Drug-Induced Lysis Underlies Enhanced Biofilm Formation at Subinhibitory Drug Concentrations

PubMed Central

Yu, Wen; Hallinen, Kelsey M.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Subinhibitory concentrations of antibiotics have been shown to enhance biofilm formation in multiple bacterial species. While antibiotic exposure has been associated with modulated expression of many biofilm-related genes, the mechanisms of drug-induced biofilm formation remain a focus of ongoing research efforts and may vary significantly across species. In this work, we investigate antibiotic-induced biofilm formation in Enterococcus faecalis, a leading cause of nosocomial infections. We show that biofilm formation is enhanced by subinhibitory concentrations of cell wall synthesis inhibitors but not by inhibitors of protein, DNA, folic acid, or RNA synthesis. Furthermore, enhanced biofilm is associated with increased cell lysis, increases in extracellular DNA (eDNA) levels, and increases in the density of living cells in the biofilm. In addition, we observe similar enhancement of biofilm formation when cells are treated with nonantibiotic surfactants that induce cell lysis. These findings suggest that antibiotic-induced biofilm formation is governed by a trade-off between drug toxicity and the beneficial effects of cell lysis. To understand this trade-off, we developed a simple mathematical model that predicts changes in antibiotic-induced biofilm formation due to external perturbations, and we verified these predictions experimentally. Specifically, we demonstrate that perturbations that reduce eDNA (DNase treatment) or decrease the number of living cells in the planktonic phase (a second antibiotic) decrease biofilm induction, while chemical inhibitors of cell lysis increase relative biofilm induction and shift the peak to higher antibiotic concentrations. Overall, our results offer experimental evidence linking cell wall synthesis inhibitors, cell lysis, increased eDNA levels, and biofilm formation in E. faecalis while also providing a predictive quantitative model that sheds light on the interplay between cell lysis and antibiotic efficacy in developing biofilms. PMID:29061740

Dynamic and fluid-structure interaction simulations of bioprosthetic heart valves using parametric design with T-splines and Fung-type material models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Ming-Chen; Kamensky, David; Xu, Fei; Kiendl, Josef; Wang, Chenglong; Wu, Michael C. H.; Mineroff, Joshua; Reali, Alessandro; Bazilevs, Yuri; Sacks, Michael S.

2015-06-01

This paper builds on a recently developed immersogeometric fluid-structure interaction (FSI) methodology for bioprosthetic heart valve (BHV) modeling and simulation. It enhances the proposed framework in the areas of geometry design and constitutive modeling. With these enhancements, BHV FSI simulations may be performed with greater levels of automation, robustness and physical realism. In addition, the paper presents a comparison between FSI analysis and standalone structural dynamics simulation driven by prescribed transvalvular pressure, the latter being a more common modeling choice for this class of problems. The FSI computation achieved better physiological realism in predicting the valve leaflet deformation than its standalone structural dynamics counterpart.

Predictive modeling of addiction lapses in a mobile health application.

PubMed

Chih, Ming-Yuan; Patton, Timothy; McTavish, Fiona M; Isham, Andrew J; Judkins-Fisher, Chris L; Atwood, Amy K; Gustafson, David H

2014-01-01

The chronically relapsing nature of alcoholism leads to substantial personal, family, and societal costs. Addiction-comprehensive health enhancement support system (A-CHESS) is a smartphone application that aims to reduce relapse. To offer targeted support to patients who are at risk of lapses within the coming week, a Bayesian network model to predict such events was constructed using responses on 2,934 weekly surveys (called the Weekly Check-in) from 152 alcohol-dependent individuals who recently completed residential treatment. The Weekly Check-in is a self-monitoring service, provided in A-CHESS, to track patients' recovery progress. The model showed good predictability, with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.829 in the 10-fold cross-validation and 0.912 in the external validation. The sensitivity/specificity table assists the tradeoff decisions necessary to apply the model in practice. This study moves us closer to the goal of providing lapse prediction so that patients might receive more targeted and timely support. © 2013.

Predictive Modeling of Addiction Lapses in a Mobile Health Application

PubMed Central

Chih, Ming-Yuan; Patton, Timothy; McTavish, Fiona M.; Isham, Andrew; Judkins-Fisher, Chris L.; Atwood, Amy K.; Gustafson, David H.

2013-01-01

The chronically relapsing nature of alcoholism leads to substantial personal, family, and societal costs. Addiction-Comprehensive Health Enhancement Support System (A-CHESS) is a smartphone application that aims to reduce relapse. To offer targeted support to patients who are at risk of lapses within the coming week, a Bayesian network model to predict such events was constructed using responses on 2,934 weekly surveys (called the Weekly Check-in) from 152 alcohol-dependent individuals who recently completed residential treatment. The Weekly Check-in is a self-monitoring service, provided in A-CHESS, to track patients’ recovery progress. The model showed good predictability, with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.829 in the 10-fold cross-validation and 0.912 in the external validation. The sensitivity/specificity table assists the tradeoff decisions necessary to apply the model in practice. This study moves us closer to the goal of providing lapse prediction so that patients might receive more targeted and timely support. PMID:24035143

Tidal Dynamics and Mixing Over Steep Topography

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-06-01

California continental shelf have been observed at several locations (Huthnance, 1989). Shea and Broenkow (1982) observed large 33 tidally related...enhanced transport inside the canyon (Huthnance, 1989). This type of pressure gradient supports the conceptual model proposed by Shea and Broenkow (1982...predicted an enhanced internal tide up-canyon and near the bottom, verified by observations of strong internal tides by Shea and Broenkow (1982) at

Perceived threat and corroboration: key factors that improve a predictive model of trust in internet-based health information and advice.

PubMed

Harris, Peter R; Sillence, Elizabeth; Briggs, Pam

2011-07-27

How do people decide which sites to use when seeking health advice online? We can assume, from related work in e-commerce, that general design factors known to affect trust in the site are important, but in this paper we also address the impact of factors specific to the health domain. The current study aimed to (1) assess the factorial structure of a general measure of Web trust, (2) model how the resultant factors predicted trust in, and readiness to act on, the advice found on health-related websites, and (3) test whether adding variables from social cognition models to capture elements of the response to threatening, online health-risk information enhanced the prediction of these outcomes. Participants were asked to recall a site they had used to search for health-related information and to think of that site when answering an online questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of a general Web trust questionnaire plus items assessing appraisals of the site, including threat appraisals, information checking, and corroboration. It was promoted on the hungersite.com website. The URL was distributed via Yahoo and local print media. We assessed the factorial structure of the measures using principal components analysis and modeled how well they predicted the outcome measures using structural equation modeling (SEM) with EQS software. We report an analysis of the responses of participants who searched for health advice for themselves (N = 561). Analysis of the general Web trust questionnaire revealed 4 factors: information quality, personalization, impartiality, and credible design. In the final SEM model, information quality and impartiality were direct predictors of trust. However, variables specific to eHealth (perceived threat, coping, and corroboration) added substantially to the ability of the model to predict variance in trust and readiness to act on advice on the site. The final model achieved a satisfactory fit: χ(2) (5) = 10.8 (P = .21), comparative fit index = .99, root mean square error of approximation = .052. The model accounted for 66% of the variance in trust and 49% of the variance in readiness to act on the advice. Adding variables specific to eHealth enhanced the ability of a model of trust to predict trust and readiness to act on advice.

Perceived Threat and Corroboration: Key Factors That Improve a Predictive Model of Trust in Internet-based Health Information and Advice

PubMed Central

Harris, Peter R; Briggs, Pam

2011-01-01

Background How do people decide which sites to use when seeking health advice online? We can assume, from related work in e-commerce, that general design factors known to affect trust in the site are important, but in this paper we also address the impact of factors specific to the health domain. Objective The current study aimed to (1) assess the factorial structure of a general measure of Web trust, (2) model how the resultant factors predicted trust in, and readiness to act on, the advice found on health-related websites, and (3) test whether adding variables from social cognition models to capture elements of the response to threatening, online health-risk information enhanced the prediction of these outcomes. Methods Participants were asked to recall a site they had used to search for health-related information and to think of that site when answering an online questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of a general Web trust questionnaire plus items assessing appraisals of the site, including threat appraisals, information checking, and corroboration. It was promoted on the hungersite.com website. The URL was distributed via Yahoo and local print media. We assessed the factorial structure of the measures using principal components analysis and modeled how well they predicted the outcome measures using structural equation modeling (SEM) with EQS software. Results We report an analysis of the responses of participants who searched for health advice for themselves (N = 561). Analysis of the general Web trust questionnaire revealed 4 factors: information quality, personalization, impartiality, and credible design. In the final SEM model, information quality and impartiality were direct predictors of trust. However, variables specific to eHealth (perceived threat, coping, and corroboration) added substantially to the ability of the model to predict variance in trust and readiness to act on advice on the site. The final model achieved a satisfactory fit: χ2 5 = 10.8 (P = .21), comparative fit index = .99, root mean square error of approximation = .052. The model accounted for 66% of the variance in trust and 49% of the variance in readiness to act on the advice. Conclusions Adding variables specific to eHealth enhanced the ability of a model of trust to predict trust and readiness to act on advice. PMID:21795237

Modeling of temperature-induced near-infrared and low-field time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance spectral variation: chemometric prediction of limonene and water content in spray-dried delivery systems.

PubMed

Andrade, Letícia; Farhat, Imad A; Aeberhardt, Kasia; Bro, Rasmus; Engelsen, Søren Balling

2009-02-01

The influence of temperature on near-infrared (NIR) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy complicates the industrial applications of both spectroscopic methods. The focus of this study is to analyze and model the effect of temperature variation on NIR spectra and NMR relaxation data. Different multivariate methods were tested for constructing robust prediction models based on NIR and NMR data acquired at various temperatures. Data were acquired on model spray-dried limonene systems at five temperatures in the range from 20 degrees C to 60 degrees C and partial least squares (PLS) regression models were computed for limonene and water predictions. The predictive ability of the models computed on the NIR spectra (acquired at various temperatures) improved significantly when data were preprocessed using extended inverted signal correction (EISC). The average PLS regression prediction error was reduced to 0.2%, corresponding to 1.9% and 3.4% of the full range of limonene and water reference values, respectively. The removal of variation induced by temperature prior to calibration, by direct orthogonalization (DO), slightly enhanced the predictive ability of the models based on NMR data. Bilinear PLS models, with implicit inclusion of the temperature, enabled limonene and water predictions by NMR with an error of 0.3% (corresponding to 2.8% and 7.0% of the full range of limonene and water). For NMR, and in contrast to the NIR results, modeling the data using multi-way N-PLS improved the models' performance. N-PLS models, in which temperature was included as an extra variable, enabled more accurate prediction, especially for limonene (prediction error was reduced to 0.2%). Overall, this study proved that it is possible to develop models for limonene and water content prediction based on NIR and NMR data, independent of the measurement temperature.

Application of model predictive control for optimal operation of wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Yuan; Cao, Pei; Tang, J.

2017-04-01

For large-scale wind turbines, reducing maintenance cost is a major challenge. Model predictive control (MPC) is a promising approach to deal with multiple conflicting objectives using the weighed sum approach. In this research, model predictive control method is applied to wind turbine to find an optimal balance between multiple objectives, such as the energy capture, loads on turbine components, and the pitch actuator usage. The actuator constraints are integrated into the objective function at the control design stage. The analysis is carried out in both the partial load region and full load region, and the performances are compared with those of a baseline gain scheduling PID controller. The application of this strategy achieves enhanced balance of component loads, the average power and actuator usages in partial load region.

Comparison of Models for Ball Bearing Dynamic Capacity and Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Pradeep K.; Oswald, Fred B.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2015-01-01

Generalized formulations for dynamic capacity and life of ball bearings, based on the models introduced by Lundberg and Palmgren and Zaretsky, have been developed and implemented in the bearing dynamics computer code, ADORE. Unlike the original Lundberg-Palmgren dynamic capacity equation, where the elastic properties are part of the life constant, the generalized formulations permit variation of elastic properties of the interacting materials. The newly updated Lundberg-Palmgren model allows prediction of life as a function of elastic properties. For elastic properties similar to those of AISI 52100 bearing steel, both the original and updated Lundberg-Palmgren models provide identical results. A comparison between the Lundberg-Palmgren and the Zaretsky models shows that at relatively light loads the Zaretsky model predicts a much higher life than the Lundberg-Palmgren model. As the load increases, the Zaretsky model provides a much faster drop off in life. This is because the Zaretsky model is much more sensitive to load than the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The generalized implementation where all model parameters can be varied provides an effective tool for future model validation and enhancement in bearing life prediction capabilities.

Evolving Approaches and Technologies to Enhance the Role of Ecological Modeling in Decision Making

Treesearch

Eric Gustafson; John Nestler; Louis Gross; Keith M. Reynolds; Daniel Yaussy; Thomas P. Maxwell; Virginia H. Dale

2002-01-01

Understanding the effects of management activities is difficult for natural resource managers and decision makers because ecological systems are highly complex and their behavior is difficult to predict. Furthermore, the empirical studies necessary to illuminate all management questions quickly become logistically complicated and cost prohibitive. Ecological models...

Genome-wide prediction models that incorporate de novo GWAS are a powerful new tool for tropical rice improvement

PubMed Central

Spindel, J E; Begum, H; Akdemir, D; Collard, B; Redoña, E; Jannink, J-L; McCouch, S

2016-01-01

To address the multiple challenges to food security posed by global climate change, population growth and rising incomes, plant breeders are developing new crop varieties that can enhance both agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. Current breeding practices, however, are unable to keep pace with demand. Genomic selection (GS) is a new technique that helps accelerate the rate of genetic gain in breeding by using whole-genome data to predict the breeding value of offspring. Here, we describe a new GS model that combines RR-BLUP with markers fit as fixed effects selected from the results of a genome-wide-association study (GWAS) on the RR-BLUP training data. We term this model GS + de novo GWAS. In a breeding population of tropical rice, GS + de novo GWAS outperformed six other models for a variety of traits and in multiple environments. On the basis of these results, we propose an extended, two-part breeding design that can be used to efficiently integrate novel variation into elite breeding populations, thus expanding genetic diversity and enhancing the potential for sustainable productivity gains. PMID:26860200

Near-vacuum hohlraums for driving fusion implosions with high density carbon ablatorsa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berzak Hopkins, L. F.; Le Pape, S.; Divol, L.; Meezan, N. B.; Mackinnon, A. J.; Ho, D. D.; Jones, O. S.; Khan, S.; Milovich, J. L.; Ross, J. S.; Amendt, P.; Casey, D.; Celliers, P. M.; Pak, A.; Peterson, J. L.; Ralph, J.; Rygg, J. R.

2015-05-01

Recent experiments at the National Ignition Facility [M. J. Edwards et al., Phys. Plasmas 20, 070501 (2013)] have explored driving high-density carbon ablators with near-vacuum hohlraums, which use a minimal amount of helium gas fill. These hohlraums show improved efficiency relative to conventional gas-filled hohlraums in terms of minimal backscatter, minimal generation of suprathermal electrons, and increased hohlraum-capsule coupling. Given these advantages, near-vacuum hohlraums are a promising choice for pursuing high neutron yield implosions. Long pulse symmetry control, though, remains a challenge, as the hohlraum volume fills with material. Two mitigation methodologies have been explored, dynamic beam phasing and increased case-to-capsule ratio (larger hohlraum size relative to capsule). Unexpectedly, experiments have demonstrated that the inner laser beam propagation is better than predicted by nominal simulations, and an enhanced beam propagation model is required to match measured hot spot symmetry. Ongoing work is focused on developing a physical model which captures this enhanced propagation and on utilizing the enhanced propagation to drive longer laser pulses than originally predicted in order to reach alpha-heating dominated neutron yields.

Forecast of dengue incidence using temperature and rainfall.

PubMed

Hii, Yien Ling; Zhu, Huaiping; Ng, Nawi; Ng, Lee Ching; Rocklöv, Joacim

2012-01-01

An accurate early warning system to predict impending epidemics enhances the effectiveness of preventive measures against dengue fever. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a forecasting model that could predict dengue cases and provide timely early warning in Singapore. We developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall over the period 2000-2010. Weather data were modeled using piecewise linear spline functions. We analyzed various lag times between dengue and weather variables to identify the optimal dengue forecasting period. Autoregression, seasonality and trend were considered in the model. We validated the model by forecasting dengue cases for week 1 of 2011 up to week 16 of 2012 using weather data alone. Model selection and validation were based on Akaike's Information Criterion, standardized Root Mean Square Error, and residuals diagnoses. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to analyze the sensitivity of the forecast of epidemics. The optimal period for dengue forecast was 16 weeks. Our model forecasted correctly with errors of 0.3 and 0.32 of the standard deviation of reported cases during the model training and validation periods, respectively. It was sensitive enough to distinguish between outbreak and non-outbreak to a 96% (CI = 93-98%) in 2004-2010 and 98% (CI = 95%-100%) in 2011. The model predicted the outbreak in 2011 accurately with less than 3% possibility of false alarm. We have developed a weather-based dengue forecasting model that allows warning 16 weeks in advance of dengue epidemics with high sensitivity and specificity. We demonstrate that models using temperature and rainfall could be simple, precise, and low cost tools for dengue forecasting which could be used to enhance decision making on the timing, scale of vector control operations, and utilization of limited resources.

Dynamic modelling of solids in a full-scale activated sludge plant preceded by CEPT as a preliminary step for micropollutant removal modelling.

PubMed

Baalbaki, Zeina; Torfs, Elena; Maere, Thomas; Yargeau, Viviane; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

2017-04-01

The presence of micropollutants in the environment has triggered research on quantifying and predicting their fate in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Since the removal of micropollutants is highly related to conventional pollutant removal and affected by hydraulics, aeration, biomass composition and solids concentration, the fate of these conventional pollutants and characteristics must be well predicted before tackling models to predict the fate of micropollutants. In light of this, the current paper presents the dynamic modelling of conventional pollutants undergoing activated sludge treatment using a limited set of additional daily composite data besides the routine data collected at a WWTP over one year. Results showed that as a basis for modelling, the removal of micropollutants, the Bürger-Diehl settler model was found to capture the actual effluent total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations more efficiently than the Takács model by explicitly modelling the overflow boundary. Results also demonstrated that particular attention must be given to characterizing incoming TSS to obtain a representative solids balance in the presence of a chemically enhanced primary treatment, which is key to predict the fate of micropollutants.

Mechanism of Chromosomal Boundary Action: Roadblock, Sink, or Loop?

PubMed Central

Gohl, Daryl; Aoki, Tsutomu; Blanton, Jason; Shanower, Greg; Kappes, Gretchen; Schedl, Paul

2011-01-01

Boundary elements or insulators subdivide eukaryotic chromosomes into a series of structurally and functionally autonomous domains. They ensure that the action of enhancers and silencers is restricted to the domain in which these regulatory elements reside. Three models, the roadblock, sink/decoy, and topological loop, have been proposed to explain the insulating activity of boundary elements. Strong predictions about how boundaries will function in different experimental contexts can be drawn from these models. In the studies reported here, we have designed assays that test these predictions. The results of our assays are inconsistent with the expectations of the roadblock and sink models. Instead, they support the topological loop model. PMID:21196526

Development of an automated energy audit protocol for office buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deb, Chirag

This study aims to enhance the building energy audit process, and bring about reduction in time and cost requirements in the conduction of a full physical audit. For this, a total of 5 Energy Service Companies in Singapore have collaborated and provided energy audit reports for 62 office buildings. Several statistical techniques are adopted to analyse these reports. These techniques comprise cluster analysis and development of prediction models to predict energy savings for buildings. The cluster analysis shows that there are 3 clusters of buildings experiencing different levels of energy savings. To understand the effect of building variables on the change in EUI, a robust iterative process for selecting the appropriate variables is developed. The results show that the 4 variables of GFA, non-air-conditioning energy consumption, average chiller plant efficiency and installed capacity of chillers should be taken for clustering. This analysis is extended to the development of prediction models using linear regression and artificial neural networks (ANN). An exhaustive variable selection algorithm is developed to select the input variables for the two energy saving prediction models. The results show that the ANN prediction model can predict the energy saving potential of a given building with an accuracy of +/-14.8%.

Implementation and Verification of the Chen Prediction Technique for Forecasting Large Nonrecurrent Storms*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arge, C. N.; Chen, J.; Slinker, S.; Pizzo, V. J.

2000-05-01

The method of Chen et al. [1997, JGR, 101, 27499] is designed to accurately identify and predict the occurrence, duration, and strength of largegeomagnetic storms using real-time solar wind data. The method estimates the IMF and the geoeffectiveness of the solar wind upstream of a monitor and can provide warning times that range from a few hours to more than 10 hours. The model uses physical features of solar wind structures that cause large storms: long durations of southward interplanetary magnetic field. It is currently undergoing testing, improvement, and validation at NOAA/SEC in effort to transition it into a real-time space weather forecasting tool. The original version of the model has modified so that it now makes hourly (as opposed to daily) predictions and has been improved in effort to enhance both its predictive capability and reliability. In this paper, we report on the results of a 2-year historical verification study of the model using ACE real-time data. The prediction performances of the original and improved versions of the model are then compared. A real-time prediction web page has been developed and is on line at NOAA/SEC. *Work supported by ONR.

A Stochastic Framework for Evaluating Seizure Prediction Algorithms Using Hidden Markov Models

PubMed Central

Wong, Stephen; Gardner, Andrew B.; Krieger, Abba M.; Litt, Brian

2007-01-01

Responsive, implantable stimulation devices to treat epilepsy are now in clinical trials. New evidence suggests that these devices may be more effective when they deliver therapy before seizure onset. Despite years of effort, prospective seizure prediction, which could improve device performance, remains elusive. In large part, this is explained by lack of agreement on a statistical framework for modeling seizure generation and a method for validating algorithm performance. We present a novel stochastic framework based on a three-state hidden Markov model (HMM) (representing interictal, preictal, and seizure states) with the feature that periods of increased seizure probability can transition back to the interictal state. This notion reflects clinical experience and may enhance interpretation of published seizure prediction studies. Our model accommodates clipped EEG segments and formalizes intuitive notions regarding statistical validation. We derive equations for type I and type II errors as a function of the number of seizures, duration of interictal data, and prediction horizon length and we demonstrate the model’s utility with a novel seizure detection algorithm that appeared to predicted seizure onset. We propose this framework as a vital tool for designing and validating prediction algorithms and for facilitating collaborative research in this area. PMID:17021032

High capacity demonstration of honeycomb panel heat pipes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanzer, H. J.

1989-01-01

The feasibility of performance enhancing the sandwich panel heat pipe was investigated for moderate temperature range heat rejection radiators on future-high-power spacecraft. The hardware development program consisted of performance prediction modeling, fabrication, ground test, and data correlation. Using available sandwich panel materials, a series of subscale test panels were augumented with high-capacity sideflow and temperature control variable conductance features, and test evaluated for correlation with performance prediction codes. Using the correlated prediction model, a 50-kW full size radiator was defined using methanol working fluid and closely spaced sideflows. A new concept called the hybrid radiator individually optimizes heat pipe components. A 2.44-m long hybrid test vehicle demonstrated proof-of-principle performance.

More is not always better: modeling the effects of elastic exoskeleton compliance on underlying ankle muscle-tendon dynamics.

PubMed

Robertson, Benjamin D; Farris, Dominic J; Sawicki, Gregory S

2014-11-24

Development of robotic exoskeletons to assist/enhance human locomotor performance involves lengthy prototyping, testing, and analysis. This process is further convoluted by variability in limb/body morphology and preferred gait patterns between individuals. In an attempt to expedite this process, and establish a physiological basis for actuator prescription, we developed a simple, predictive model of human neuromechanical adaptation to a passive elastic exoskeleton applied at the ankle joint during a functional task. We modeled the human triceps surae-Achilles tendon muscle tendon unit (MTU) as a single Hill-type muscle, or contractile element (CE), and series tendon, or series elastic element (SEE). This modeled system was placed under gravitational load and underwent cyclic stimulation at a regular frequency (i.e. hopping) with and without exoskeleton (Exo) assistance. We explored the effect that both Exo stiffness (kExo) and muscle activation (Astim) had on combined MTU and Exo (MTU + Exo), MTU, and CE/SEE mechanics and energetics. Model accuracy was verified via qualitative and quantitative comparisons between modeled and prior experimental outcomes. We demonstrated that reduced Astim can be traded for increased kExo to maintain consistent MTU + Exo mechanics (i.e. average positive power (P⁺mech) output) from an unassisted condition (i.e. kExo = 0 kN · m⁻¹). For these regions of parameter space, our model predicted a reduction in MTU force, SEE energy cycling, and metabolic rate (Pmet), as well as constant CE P⁺mech output compared to unassisted conditions. This agreed with previous experimental observations, demonstrating our model's predictive ability. Model predictions also provided insight into mechanisms of metabolic cost minimization, and/or enhanced mechanical performance, and we concluded that both of these outcomes cannot be achieved simultaneously, and that one must come at the detriment of the other in a spring-assisted compliant MTU.

Computation of Alfvèn eigenmode stability and saturation through a reduced fast ion transport model in the TRANSP tokamak transport code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Podestà, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Gorelenkov, N. N.

Alfvénic instabilities (AEs) are well known as a potential cause of enhanced fast ion transport in fusion devices. Given a specific plasma scenario, quantitative predictions of (i) expected unstable AE spectrum and (ii) resulting fast ion transport are required to prevent or mitigate the AE-induced degradation in fusion performance. Reduced models are becoming an attractive tool to analyze existing scenarios as well as for scenario prediction in time-dependent simulations. Here, in this work, a neutral beam heated NSTX discharge is used as reference to illustrate the potential of a reduced fast ion transport model, known as kick model, that hasmore » been recently implemented for interpretive and predictive analysis within the framework of the time-dependent tokamak transport code TRANSP. Predictive capabilities for AE stability and saturation amplitude are first assessed, based on given thermal plasma profiles only. Predictions are then compared to experimental results, and the interpretive capabilities of the model further discussed. Overall, the reduced model captures the main properties of the instabilities and associated effects on the fast ion population. Finally, additional information from the actual experiment enables further tuning of the model's parameters to achieve a close match with measurements.« less

Optimizing heat shock protein expression induced by prostate cancer laser therapy through predictive computational models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rylander, Marissa N.; Feng, Yusheng; Zhang, Yongjie; Bass, Jon; Stafford, Roger J.; Hazle, John D.; Diller, Kenneth R.

2006-07-01

Thermal therapy efficacy can be diminished due to heat shock protein (HSP) induction in regions of a tumor where temperatures are insufficient to coagulate proteins. HSP expression enhances tumor cell viability and imparts resistance to chemotherapy and radiation treatments, which are generally employed in conjunction with hyperthermia. Therefore, an understanding of the thermally induced HSP expression within the targeted tumor must be incorporated into the treatment plan to optimize the thermal dose delivery and permit prediction of the overall tissue response. A treatment planning computational model capable of predicting the temperature, HSP27 and HSP70 expression, and damage fraction distributions associated with laser heating in healthy prostate tissue and tumors is presented. Measured thermally induced HSP27 and HSP70 expression kinetics and injury data for normal and cancerous prostate cells and prostate tumors are employed to create the first HSP expression predictive model and formulate an Arrhenius damage model. The correlation coefficients between measured and model predicted temperature, HSP27, and HSP70 were 0.98, 0.99, and 0.99, respectively, confirming the accuracy of the model. Utilization of the treatment planning model in the design of prostate cancer thermal therapies can enable optimization of the treatment outcome by controlling HSP expression and injury.

Computation of Alfvèn eigenmode stability and saturation through a reduced fast ion transport model in the TRANSP tokamak transport code

DOE PAGES

Podestà, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Gorelenkov, N. N.; ...

2017-07-20

Alfvénic instabilities (AEs) are well known as a potential cause of enhanced fast ion transport in fusion devices. Given a specific plasma scenario, quantitative predictions of (i) expected unstable AE spectrum and (ii) resulting fast ion transport are required to prevent or mitigate the AE-induced degradation in fusion performance. Reduced models are becoming an attractive tool to analyze existing scenarios as well as for scenario prediction in time-dependent simulations. Here, in this work, a neutral beam heated NSTX discharge is used as reference to illustrate the potential of a reduced fast ion transport model, known as kick model, that hasmore » been recently implemented for interpretive and predictive analysis within the framework of the time-dependent tokamak transport code TRANSP. Predictive capabilities for AE stability and saturation amplitude are first assessed, based on given thermal plasma profiles only. Predictions are then compared to experimental results, and the interpretive capabilities of the model further discussed. Overall, the reduced model captures the main properties of the instabilities and associated effects on the fast ion population. Finally, additional information from the actual experiment enables further tuning of the model's parameters to achieve a close match with measurements.« less

Adaptive gamma correction-based expert system for nonuniform illumination face enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelhamid, Iratni; Mustapha, Aouache; Adel, Oulefki

2018-03-01

The image quality of a face recognition system suffers under severe lighting conditions. Thus, this study aims to develop an approach for nonuniform illumination adjustment based on an adaptive gamma correction (AdaptGC) filter that can solve the aforementioned issue. An approach for adaptive gain factor prediction was developed via neural network model-based cross-validation (NN-CV). To achieve this objective, a gamma correction function and its effects on the face image quality with different gain values were examined first. Second, an orientation histogram (OH) algorithm was assessed as a face's feature descriptor. Subsequently, a density histogram module was developed for face label generation. During the NN-CV construction, the model was assessed to recognize the OH descriptor and predict the face label. The performance of the NN-CV model was evaluated by examining the statistical measures of root mean square error and coefficient of efficiency. Third, to evaluate the AdaptGC enhancement approach, an image quality metric was adopted using enhancement by entropy, contrast per pixel, second-derivative-like measure of enhancement, and sharpness, then supported by visual inspection. The experiment results were examined using five face's databases, namely, extended Yale-B, Carnegie Mellon University-Pose, Illumination, and Expression, Mobio, FERET, and Oulu-CASIA-NIR-VIS. The final results prove that AdaptGC filter implementation compared with state-of-the-art methods is the best choice in terms of contrast and nonuniform illumination adjustment. In summary, the benefits attained prove that AdaptGC is driven by a profitable enhancement rate, which provides satisfying features for high rate face recognition systems.

Investigating market efficiency through a forecasting model based on differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Resende, Charlene C.; Pereira, Adriano C. M.; Cardoso, Rodrigo T. N.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

2017-05-01

A new differential equation based model for stock price trend forecast is proposed as a tool to investigate efficiency in an emerging market. Its predictive power showed statistically to be higher than the one of a completely random model, signaling towards the presence of arbitrage opportunities. Conditions for accuracy to be enhanced are investigated, and application of the model as part of a trading strategy is discussed.

Was Magnetic Storm the Only Driver of the Long-Duration Enhancements of Daytime Total Electron Content in the Asian-Australian Sector Between 7 and 12 September 2017?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Jiuhou; Huang, Fuqing; Chen, Xuetao; Zhong, Jiahao; Ren, Dexin; Wang, Wenbin; Yue, Xinan; Luan, Xiaoli; Jia, Mingjiao; Dou, Xiankang; Hu, Lianhuan; Ning, Baiqi; Owolabi, Charles; Chen, Jinsong; Li, Guozhu; Xue, Xianghui

2018-04-01

In this study, multiple data sets from Beidou geostationary orbit satellites total electron contents (TECs), ionosonde, meteor radar, magnetometer, and model simulations have been used to investigate the ionospheric responses in the Asian-Australian sector during the September 2017 geomagnetic storm. It was found that long-duration daytime TEC enhancements that lasted from 7 to 12 September 2017 were observed by the Beidou geostationary orbit satellite constellation. This is a unique event as the prominent TEC enhancements persisted during the storm recovery phase when geomagnetic activity became quiet. The Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model predicted that the TEC enhancements on 7-9 September were associated with the geomagnetic activity, but it showed significant electron density depletions on 10 and 11 September in contrast to the observed TEC enhancements. Our results suggested that the observed long-duration TEC enhancements from 7 to 12 September are mainly associated with the interplay of ionospheric dynamics and electrodynamics. Nevertheless, the root causes for the observed TEC enhancements seen in the storm recovery phase are unknown and require further observations and model studies.

Prediction of biodegradability from chemical structure: Modeling or ready biodegradation test data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loonen, H.; Lindgren, F.; Hansen, B.

1999-08-01

Biodegradation data were collected and evaluated for 894 substances with widely varying chemical structures. All data were determined according to the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) I test protocol. The MITI I test is a screening test for ready biodegradability and has been described by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) test guideline 301 C and European Union (EU) test guideline C4F. The chemicals were characterized by a set of 127 predefined structural fragments. This data set was used to develop a model for the prediction of the biodegradability of chemicals under standardized OECD and EUmore » ready biodegradation test conditions. Partial least squares (PLS) discriminant analysis was used for the model development. The model was evaluated by means of internal cross-validation and repeated external validation. The importance of various structural fragments and fragment interactions was investigated. The most important fragments include the presence of a long alkyl chain; hydroxy, ester, and acid groups (enhancing biodegradation); and the presence of one or more aromatic rings and halogen substituents (regarding biodegradation). More than 85% of the model predictions were correct for using the complete data set. The not readily biodegradable predictions were slightly better than the readily biodegradable predictions (86 vs 84%). The average percentage of correct predictions from four external validation studies was 83%. Model optimization by including fragment interactions improve the model predicting capabilities to 89%. It can be concluded that the PLS model provides predictions of high reliability for a diverse range of chemical structures. The predictions conform to the concept of readily biodegradable (or not readily biodegradable) as defined by OECD and EU test guidelines.« less

Applicability of a panel method, which includes nonlinear effects, to a forward-swept-wing aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, J. C.

1984-01-01

The ability of a lower order panel method VSAERO, to accurately predict the lift and pitching moment of a complete forward-swept-wing/canard configuration was investigated. The program can simulate nonlinear effects including boundary-layer displacement thickness, wake roll up, and to a limited extent, separated wakes. The predictions were compared with experimental data obtained using a small-scale model in the 7- by 10- Foot Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. For the particular configuration under investigation, wake roll up had only a small effect on the force and moment predictions. The effect of the displacement thickness modeling was to reduce the lift curve slope slightly, thus bringing the predicted lift into good agreement with the measured value. Pitching moment predictions were also improved by the boundary-layer simulation. The separation modeling was found to be sensitive to user inputs, but appears to give a reasonable representation of a separated wake. In general, the nonlinear capabilities of the code were found to improve the agreement with experimental data. The usefullness of the code would be enhanced by improving the reliability of the separated wake modeling and by the addition of a leading edge separation model.

Active optimal control strategies for increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aljoaba, Sharif Zidan Ahmad

Energy consumption has increased drastically during the last century. Currently, the worldwide energy consumption is about 17.4 TW and is predicted to reach 25 TW by 2035. Solar energy has emerged as one of the potential renewable energy sources. Since its first physical recognition in 1887 by Adams and Day till nowadays, research in solar energy is continuously developing. This has lead to many achievements and milestones that introduced it as one of the most reliable and sustainable energy sources. Recently, the International Energy Agency declared that solar energy is predicted to be one of the major electricity production energy sources by 2035. Enhancing the efficiency and lifecycle of photovoltaic (PV) modules leads to significant cost reduction. Reducing the temperature of the PV module improves its efficiency and enhances its lifecycle. To better understand the PV module performance, it is important to study the interaction between the output power and the temperature. A model that is capable of predicting the PV module temperature and its effects on the output power considering the individual contribution of the solar spectrum wavelengths significantly advances the PV module edsigns toward higher efficiency. In this work, a thermoelectrical model is developed to predict the effects of the solar spectrum wavelengths on the PV module performance. The model is characterized and validated under real meteorological conditions where experimental temperature and output power of the PV module measurements are shown to agree with the predicted results. The model is used to validate the concept of active optical filtering. Since this model is wavelength-based, it is used to design an active optical filter for PV applications. Applying this filter to the PV module is expected to increase the output power of the module by filtering the spectrum wavelengths. The active filter performance is optimized, where different cutoff wavelengths are used to maximize the module output power. It is predicted that if the optimized active optical filter is applied to the PV module, the module efficiency is predicted to increase by about 1%. Different technologies are considered for physical implementation of the active optical filter.

Streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections and psychosocial stress predict future tic and obsessive-compulsive symptom severity in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder

PubMed Central

Lin, Haiqun; Williams, Kyle A.; Katsovich, Liliya; Findley, Diane B.; Grantz, Heidi; Lombroso, Paul J.; King, Robert A.; Bessen, Debra E.; Johnson, Dwight; Kaplan, Edward L.; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Zhang, Heping; Leckman, James F.

2009-01-01

Background: One goal of this prospective longitudinal study was to identify new group A beta hemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) infections in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome (TS) and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) compared to healthy control subjects. We then examined the power of GABHS infections and measures of psychosocial stress to predict future tic, obsessive-compulsive (OC), and depressive symptom severity. Methods: Consecutive ratings of tic, OC and depressive symptom severity were obtained for 45 cases and 41 matched control subjects over a two-year period. Clinical raters were blinded to the results of laboratory tests. Laboratory personnel were blinded to case or control status and clinical ratings. Structural equation modeling for unbalanced repeated measures was used to assess the sequence of new GABHS infections and psychosocial stress and their impact on future symptom severity. Results: Increases in tic and OC symptom severity did not occur after every new GABHS infection. However, the structural equation model found that these newly diagnosed infections were predictive of modest increases in future tic and OC symptom severity, but did not predict future depressive symptom severity. In addition, the inclusion of new infections in the model greatly enhanced, by a factor of three, the power of psychosocial stress in predicting future tic and OC symptom severity. Conclusions: Our data suggest that a minority of children with TS and early-onset OCD were sensitive to antecedent GABHS infections. These infections also enhanced the predictive power of current psychosocial stress on future tic and OC symptom severity. PMID:19833320

Enhancing BEM simulations of a stalled wind turbine using a 3D correction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bangga, Galih; Hutomo, Go; Syawitri, Taurista; Kusumadewi, Tri; Oktavia, Winda; Sabila, Ahmad; Setiadi, Herlambang; Faisal, Muhamad; Hendranata, Yongki; Lastomo, Dwi; Putra, Louis; Kristiadi, Stefanus; Bumi, Ilmi

2018-03-01

Nowadays wind turbine rotors are usually employed with pitch control mechanisms to avoid deep stall conditions. Despite that, wind turbines often operate under pitch fault situation causing massive flow separation to occur. Pure Blade Element Momentum (BEM) approaches are not designed for this situation and inaccurate load predictions are already expected. In the present studies, BEM predictions are improved through the inclusion of a stall delay model for a wind turbine rotor operating under pitch fault situation of -2.3° towards stall. The accuracy of the stall delay model is assessed by comparing the results with available Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations data.

Predicting the effects of magnesium oxide nanoparticles and temperature on the thermal conductivity of water using artificial neural network and experimental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afrand, Masoud; Hemmat Esfe, Mohammad; Abedini, Ehsan; Teimouri, Hamid

2017-03-01

The current paper first presents an empirical correlation based on experimental results for estimating thermal conductivity enhancement of MgO-water nanofluid using curve fitting method. Then, artificial neural networks (ANNs) with various numbers of neurons have been assessed by considering temperature and MgO volume fraction as the inputs variables and thermal conductivity enhancement as the output variable to select the most appropriate and optimized network. Results indicated that the network with 7 neurons had minimum error. Eventually, the output of artificial neural network was compared with the results of the proposed empirical correlation and those of the experiments. Comparisons revealed that ANN modeling was more accurate than curve-fitting method in the predicting the thermal conductivity enhancement of the nanofluid.

GEOELECTRICAL STRATIGRAPHY AND ANALYSIS OF A HYDROCARBON IMPACTED AQUIFER

EPA Science Inventory

A recently proposed geoelectrical model for hydrocarbon impacted sites predicts anomalously high conductivities coincident with aged contaminated zones. These high conductivities are attributed to an enhancement of mineral weathering resulting from byproducts of microbial redox p...

Predicting outcomes in patients with perforated gastroduodenal ulcers: artificial neural network modelling indicates a highly complex disease.

PubMed

Søreide, K; Thorsen, K; Søreide, J A

2015-02-01

Mortality prediction models for patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) have not yielded consistent or highly accurate results. Given the complex nature of this disease, which has many non-linear associations with outcomes, we explored artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the complex interactions between the risk factors of PPU and death among patients with this condition. ANN modelling using a standard feed-forward, back-propagation neural network with three layers (i.e., an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer) was used to predict the 30-day mortality of consecutive patients from a population-based cohort undergoing surgery for PPU. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess model accuracy. Of the 172 patients, 168 had their data included in the model; the data of 117 (70%) were used for the training set, and the data of 51 (39%) were used for the test set. The accuracy, as evaluated by area under the ROC curve (AUC), was best for an inclusive, multifactorial ANN model (AUC 0.90, 95% CIs 0.85-0.95; p < 0.001). This model outperformed standard predictive scores, including Boey and PULP. The importance of each variable decreased as the number of factors included in the ANN model increased. The prediction of death was most accurate when using an ANN model with several univariate influences on the outcome. This finding demonstrates that PPU is a highly complex disease for which clinical prognoses are likely difficult. The incorporation of computerised learning systems might enhance clinical judgments to improve decision making and outcome prediction.

Modeling method of time sequence model based grey system theory and application proceedings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xuexia; Luo, Yaling; Zhang, Shiqiang

2015-12-01

This article gives a modeling method of grey system GM(1,1) model based on reusing information and the grey system theory. This method not only extremely enhances the fitting and predicting accuracy of GM(1,1) model, but also maintains the conventional routes' merit of simple computation. By this way, we have given one syphilis trend forecast method based on reusing information and the grey system GM(1,1) model.

Evolution of increased phenotypic diversity enhances population performance by reducing sexual harassment in damselflies.

PubMed

Takahashi, Yuma; Kagawa, Kotaro; Svensson, Erik I; Kawata, Masakado

2014-07-18

The effect of evolutionary changes in traits and phenotypic/genetic diversity on ecological dynamics has received much theoretical attention; however, the mechanisms and ecological consequences are usually unknown. Female-limited colour polymorphism in damselflies is a counter-adaptation to male mating harassment, and thus, is expected to alter population dynamics through relaxing sexual conflict. Here we show the side effect of the evolution of female morph diversity on population performance (for example, population productivity and sustainability) in damselflies. Our theoretical model incorporating key features of the sexual interaction predicts that the evolution of increased phenotypic diversity will reduce overall fitness costs to females from sexual conflict, which in turn will increase productivity, density and stability of a population. Field data and mesocosm experiments support these model predictions. Our study suggests that increased phenotypic diversity can enhance population performance that can potentially reduce extinction rates and thereby influence macroevolutionary processes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aldegunde, Manuel, E-mail: M.A.Aldegunde-Rodriguez@warwick.ac.uk; Kermode, James R., E-mail: J.R.Kermode@warwick.ac.uk; Zabaras, Nicholas

This paper presents the development of a new exchange–correlation functional from the point of view of machine learning. Using atomization energies of solids and small molecules, we train a linear model for the exchange enhancement factor using a Bayesian approach which allows for the quantification of uncertainties in the predictions. A relevance vector machine is used to automatically select the most relevant terms of the model. We then test this model on atomization energies and also on bulk properties. The average model provides a mean absolute error of only 0.116 eV for the test points of the G2/97 set butmore » a larger 0.314 eV for the test solids. In terms of bulk properties, the prediction for transition metals and monovalent semiconductors has a very low test error. However, as expected, predictions for types of materials not represented in the training set such as ionic solids show much larger errors.« less

Stepping Up the Pressure: Arousal Can Be Associated with a Reduction in Male Aggression

PubMed Central

Ward, Andrew; Mann, Traci; Westling, Erika H.; Creswell, J. David; Ebert, Jeffrey P.; Wallaert, Matthew

2009-01-01

The attentional myopia model of behavioral control (Mann & Ward, 2007) was tested in an experiment investigating the relationship between physiological arousal and aggression. Drawing on previous work linking arousal and narrowed attentional focus, the model predicts that arousal will lead to behavior that is relatively disinhibited in situations in which promoting pressures to aggress are highly salient. In situations in which inhibitory pressures are more salient, the model predicts behavior that is relatively restrained. In the experiment, 81 male undergraduates delivered noise-blasts against a provoking confederate while experiencing either high or low levels of physiological arousal and, at the same time, being exposed to cues that served either to promote or inhibit aggression. In addition to supporting the predictions of the model, this experiment provided some of the first evidence for enhanced control of aggression under conditions of heightened physiological arousal. Implications for interventions designed to reduce aggression are discussed. PMID:18561301

Assessing Strategies Against Gambiense Sleeping Sickness Through Mathematical Modeling

PubMed Central

Rock, Kat S; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Castaño, Soledad; Palmer, Cody; Pandey, Abhishek; Atkins, Katherine E; Ndung’u, Joseph M; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Galvani, Alison; Bever, Caitlin; Chitnis, Nakul; Keeling, Matt J

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Control of gambiense sleeping sickness relies predominantly on passive and active screening of people, followed by treatment. Methods Mathematical modeling explores the potential of 3 complementary interventions in high- and low-transmission settings. Results Intervention strategies that included vector control are predicted to halt transmission most quickly. Targeted active screening, with better and more focused coverage, and enhanced passive surveillance, with improved access to diagnosis and treatment, are both estimated to avert many new infections but, when used alone, are unlikely to halt transmission before 2030 in high-risk settings. Conclusions There was general model consensus in the ranking of the 3 complementary interventions studied, although with discrepancies between the quantitative predictions due to differing epidemiological assumptions within the models. While these predictions provide generic insights into improving control, the most effective strategy in any situation depends on the specific epidemiology in the region and the associated costs. PMID:29860287

Prior probability and feature predictability interactively bias perceptual decisions

PubMed Central

Dunovan, Kyle E.; Tremel, Joshua J.; Wheeler, Mark E.

2014-01-01

Anticipating a forthcoming sensory experience facilitates perception for expected stimuli but also hinders perception for less likely alternatives. Recent neuroimaging studies suggest that expectation biases arise from feature-level predictions that enhance early sensory representations and facilitate evidence accumulation for contextually probable stimuli while suppressing alternatives. Reasonably then, the extent to which prior knowledge biases subsequent sensory processing should depend on the precision of expectations at the feature level as well as the degree to which expected features match those of an observed stimulus. In the present study we investigated how these two sources of uncertainty modulated pre- and post-stimulus bias mechanisms in the drift-diffusion model during a probabilistic face/house discrimination task. We tested several plausible models of choice bias, concluding that predictive cues led to a bias in both the starting-point and rate of evidence accumulation favoring the more probable stimulus category. We further tested the hypotheses that prior bias in the starting-point was conditional on the feature-level uncertainty of category expectations and that dynamic bias in the drift-rate was modulated by the match between expected and observed stimulus features. Starting-point estimates suggested that subjects formed a constant prior bias in favor of the face category, which exhibits less feature-level variability, that was strengthened or weakened by trial-wise predictive cues. Furthermore, we found that the gain on face/house evidence was increased for stimuli with less ambiguous features and that this relationship was enhanced by valid category expectations. These findings offer new evidence that bridges psychological models of decision-making with recent predictive coding theories of perception. PMID:24978303

Prediction Errors but Not Sharpened Signals Simulate Multivoxel fMRI Patterns during Speech Perception

PubMed Central

Davis, Matthew H.

2016-01-01

Successful perception depends on combining sensory input with prior knowledge. However, the underlying mechanism by which these two sources of information are combined is unknown. In speech perception, as in other domains, two functionally distinct coding schemes have been proposed for how expectations influence representation of sensory evidence. Traditional models suggest that expected features of the speech input are enhanced or sharpened via interactive activation (Sharpened Signals). Conversely, Predictive Coding suggests that expected features are suppressed so that unexpected features of the speech input (Prediction Errors) are processed further. The present work is aimed at distinguishing between these two accounts of how prior knowledge influences speech perception. By combining behavioural, univariate, and multivariate fMRI measures of how sensory detail and prior expectations influence speech perception with computational modelling, we provide evidence in favour of Prediction Error computations. Increased sensory detail and informative expectations have additive behavioural and univariate neural effects because they both improve the accuracy of word report and reduce the BOLD signal in lateral temporal lobe regions. However, sensory detail and informative expectations have interacting effects on speech representations shown by multivariate fMRI in the posterior superior temporal sulcus. When prior knowledge was absent, increased sensory detail enhanced the amount of speech information measured in superior temporal multivoxel patterns, but with informative expectations, increased sensory detail reduced the amount of measured information. Computational simulations of Sharpened Signals and Prediction Errors during speech perception could both explain these behavioural and univariate fMRI observations. However, the multivariate fMRI observations were uniquely simulated by a Prediction Error and not a Sharpened Signal model. The interaction between prior expectation and sensory detail provides evidence for a Predictive Coding account of speech perception. Our work establishes methods that can be used to distinguish representations of Prediction Error and Sharpened Signals in other perceptual domains. PMID:27846209

NASA Trapezoidal Wing Computations Including Transition and Advanced Turbulence Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rumsey, C. L.; Lee-Rausch, E. M.

2012-01-01

Flow about the NASA Trapezoidal Wing is computed with several turbulence models by using grids from the first High Lift Prediction Workshop in an effort to advance understanding of computational fluid dynamics modeling for this type of flowfield. Transition is accounted for in many of the computations. In particular, a recently-developed 4-equation transition model is utilized and works well overall. Accounting for transition tends to increase lift and decrease moment, which improves the agreement with experiment. Upper surface flap separation is reduced, and agreement with experimental surface pressures and velocity profiles is improved. The predicted shape of wakes from upstream elements is strongly influenced by grid resolution in regions above the main and flap elements. Turbulence model enhancements to account for rotation and curvature have the general effect of increasing lift and improving the resolution of the wing tip vortex as it convects downstream. However, none of the models improve the prediction of surface pressures near the wing tip, where more grid resolution is needed.

Genome-Wide Prediction and Validation of Intergenic Enhancers in Arabidopsis Using Open Chromatin Signatures[OPEN

PubMed Central

Zhu, Bo; Zhang, Wenli; Jiang, Jiming

2015-01-01

Enhancers are important regulators of gene expression in eukaryotes. Enhancers function independently of their distance and orientation to the promoters of target genes. Thus, enhancers have been difficult to identify. Only a few enhancers, especially distant intergenic enhancers, have been identified in plants. We developed an enhancer prediction system based exclusively on the DNase I hypersensitive sites (DHSs) in the Arabidopsis thaliana genome. A set of 10,044 DHSs located in intergenic regions, which are away from any gene promoters, were predicted to be putative enhancers. We examined the functions of 14 predicted enhancers using the β-glucuronidase gene reporter. Ten of the 14 (71%) candidates were validated by the reporter assay. We also designed 10 constructs using intergenic sequences that are not associated with DHSs, and none of these constructs showed enhancer activities in reporter assays. In addition, the tissue specificity of the putative enhancers can be precisely predicted based on DNase I hypersensitivity data sets developed from different plant tissues. These results suggest that the open chromatin signature-based enhancer prediction system developed in Arabidopsis may serve as a universal system for enhancer identification in plants. PMID:26373455

A perturbative approach for enhancing the performance of time series forecasting.

PubMed

de Mattos Neto, Paulo S G; Ferreira, Tiago A E; Lima, Aranildo R; Vasconcelos, Germano C; Cavalcanti, George D C

2017-04-01

This paper proposes a method to perform time series prediction based on perturbation theory. The approach is based on continuously adjusting an initial forecasting model to asymptotically approximate a desired time series model. First, a predictive model generates an initial forecasting for a time series. Second, a residual time series is calculated as the difference between the original time series and the initial forecasting. If that residual series is not white noise, then it can be used to improve the accuracy of the initial model and a new predictive model is adjusted using residual series. The whole process is repeated until convergence or the residual series becomes white noise. The output of the method is then given by summing up the outputs of all trained predictive models in a perturbative sense. To test the method, an experimental investigation was conducted on six real world time series. A comparison was made with six other methods experimented and ten other results found in the literature. Results show that not only the performance of the initial model is significantly improved but also the proposed method outperforms the other results previously published. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

PubMed

Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

2016-01-01

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model

PubMed Central

Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

2016-01-01

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders’ expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day’s price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055

Imaging and radiation effects of gold nanoparticles in tumour cells

PubMed Central

McQuaid, Harold N.; Muir, Mark F.; Taggart, Laura E.; McMahon, Stephen J.; Coulter, Jonathan A.; Hyland, Wendy B.; Jain, Suneil; Butterworth, Karl T.; Schettino, Giuseppe; Prise, Kevin M.; Hirst, David G.; Botchway, Stanley W.; Currell, Fred J.

2016-01-01

Gold nanoparticle radiosensitization represents a novel technique in enhancement of ionising radiation dose and its effect on biological systems. Variation between theoretical predictions and experimental measurement is significant enough that the mechanism leading to an increase in cell killing and DNA damage is still not clear. We present the first experimental results that take into account both the measured biodistribution of gold nanoparticles at the cellular level and the range of the product electrons responsible for energy deposition. Combining synchrotron-generated monoenergetic X-rays, intracellular gold particle imaging and DNA damage assays, has enabled a DNA damage model to be generated that includes the production of intermediate electrons. We can therefore show for the first time good agreement between the prediction of biological outcomes from both the Local Effect Model and a DNA damage model with experimentally observed cell killing and DNA damage induction via the combination of X-rays and GNPs. However, the requirement of two distinct models as indicated by this mechanistic study, one for short-term DNA damage and another for cell survival, indicates that, at least for nanoparticle enhancement, it is not safe to equate the lethal lesions invoked in the local effect model with DNA damage events. PMID:26787230

Lip-reading aids word recognition most in moderate noise: a Bayesian explanation using high-dimensional feature space.

PubMed

Ma, Wei Ji; Zhou, Xiang; Ross, Lars A; Foxe, John J; Parra, Lucas C

2009-01-01

Watching a speaker's facial movements can dramatically enhance our ability to comprehend words, especially in noisy environments. From a general doctrine of combining information from different sensory modalities (the principle of inverse effectiveness), one would expect that the visual signals would be most effective at the highest levels of auditory noise. In contrast, we find, in accord with a recent paper, that visual information improves performance more at intermediate levels of auditory noise than at the highest levels, and we show that a novel visual stimulus containing only temporal information does the same. We present a Bayesian model of optimal cue integration that can explain these conflicts. In this model, words are regarded as points in a multidimensional space and word recognition is a probabilistic inference process. When the dimensionality of the feature space is low, the Bayesian model predicts inverse effectiveness; when the dimensionality is high, the enhancement is maximal at intermediate auditory noise levels. When the auditory and visual stimuli differ slightly in high noise, the model makes a counterintuitive prediction: as sound quality increases, the proportion of reported words corresponding to the visual stimulus should first increase and then decrease. We confirm this prediction in a behavioral experiment. We conclude that auditory-visual speech perception obeys the same notion of optimality previously observed only for simple multisensory stimuli.

Model predictions of deformation, embolization and permeability of partially obstructive blood clots under variable shear flow.

PubMed

Xu, Shixin; Xu, Zhiliang; Kim, Oleg V; Litvinov, Rustem I; Weisel, John W; Alber, Mark

2017-11-01

Thromboembolism, one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide, is characterized by formation of obstructive intravascular clots (thrombi) and their mechanical breakage (embolization). A novel two-dimensional multi-phase computational model is introduced that describes active interactions between the main components of the clot, including platelets and fibrin, to study the impact of various physiologically relevant blood shear flow conditions on deformation and embolization of a partially obstructive clot with variable permeability. Simulations provide new insights into mechanisms underlying clot stability and embolization that cannot be studied experimentally at this time. In particular, model simulations, calibrated using experimental intravital imaging of an established arteriolar clot, show that flow-induced changes in size, shape and internal structure of the clot are largely determined by two shear-dependent mechanisms: reversible attachment of platelets to the exterior of the clot and removal of large clot pieces. Model simulations predict that blood clots with higher permeability are more prone to embolization with enhanced disintegration under increasing shear rate. In contrast, less permeable clots are more resistant to rupture due to shear rate-dependent clot stiffening originating from enhanced platelet adhesion and aggregation. These results can be used in future to predict risk of thromboembolism based on the data about composition, permeability and deformability of a clot under specific local haemodynamic conditions. © 2017 The Author(s).

An Ecological Analysis of the Effects of Deviant Peer Clustering on Sexual Promiscuity, Problem Behavior, and Childbearing from Early Adolescence to Adulthood: An Enhancement of the Life History Framework

PubMed Central

Dishion, Thomas J.; Ha, Thao; Véronneau, Marie-Hélène

2012-01-01

This study proposes the inclusion of peer relationships in a life history perspective on adolescent problem behavior. Longitudinal analyses were used to examine deviant peer clustering as the mediating link between attenuated family ties, peer marginalization, and social disadvantage in early adolescence and sexual promiscuity in middle adolescence and childbearing by early adulthood. Specifically, 998 youth and their families were assessed at age 11 years and periodically through age 24 years. Structural equation modeling revealed that the peer-enhanced life history model provided a good fit to the longitudinal data, with deviant peer clustering strongly predicting adolescent sexual promiscuity and other correlated problem behaviors. Sexual promiscuity, as expected, also strongly predicted the number of children by age 22–24 years. Consistent with a life history perspective, family social disadvantage directly predicted deviant peer clustering and number of children in early adulthood, controlling for all other variables in the model. These data suggest that deviant peer clustering is a core dimension of a fast life history strategy, with strong links to sexual activity and childbearing. The implications of these findings are discussed with respect to the need to integrate an evolutionary-based model of self-organized peer groups in developmental and intervention science. PMID:22409765

An ecological analysis of the effects of deviant peer clustering on sexual promiscuity, problem behavior, and childbearing from early adolescence to adulthood: an enhancement of the life history framework.

PubMed

Dishion, Thomas J; Ha, Thao; Véronneau, Marie-Hélène

2012-05-01

The authors propose that peer relationships should be included in a life history perspective on adolescent problem behavior. Longitudinal analyses were used to examine deviant peer clustering as the mediating link between attenuated family ties, peer marginalization, and social disadvantage in early adolescence and sexual promiscuity in middle adolescence and childbearing by early adulthood. Specifically, 998 youths, along with their families, were assessed at age 11 years and periodically through age 24 years. Structural equation modeling revealed that the peer-enhanced life history model provided a good fit to the longitudinal data, with deviant peer clustering strongly predicting adolescent sexual promiscuity and other correlated problem behaviors. Sexual promiscuity, as expected, also strongly predicted the number of children by ages 22-24 years. Consistent with a life history perspective, family social disadvantage directly predicted deviant peer clustering and number of children in early adulthood, controlling for all other variables in the model. These data suggest that deviant peer clustering is a core dimension of a fast life history strategy, with strong links to sexual activity and childbearing. The implications of these findings are discussed with respect to the need to integrate an evolutionary-based model of self-organized peer groups in developmental and intervention science.

Optimizing SGLT inhibitor treatment for diabetes with chronic kidney diseases.

PubMed

Layton, Anita T

2018-06-28

Diabetes induces glomerular hyperfiltration, affects kidney function, and may lead to chronic kidney diseases. A novel therapeutic treatment for diabetic patients targets the sodium-glucose cotransporter isoform 2 (SGLT2) in the kidney. SGLT2 inhibitors enhance urinary glucose, [Formula: see text] and fluid excretion and lower hyperglycemia in diabetes by inhibiting [Formula: see text] and glucose reabsorption along the proximal convoluted tubule. A goal of this study is to predict the effects of SGLT2 inhibitors in diabetic patients with and without chronic kidney diseases. To that end, we applied computational rat kidney models to assess how SGLT2 inhibition affects renal solute transport and metabolism when nephron population are normal or reduced (the latter simulates chronic kidney disease). The model predicts that SGLT2 inhibition induces glucosuria and natriuresis, with those effects enhanced in a remnant kidney. The model also predicts that the [Formula: see text] transport load and thus oxygen consumption of the S3 segment are increased under SGLT2 inhibition, a consequence that may increase the risk of hypoxia for that segment. To protect the vulnerable S3 segment, we explore dual SGLT2/SGLT1 inhibition and seek to determine the optimal combination that would yield sufficient urinary glucose excretion while limiting the metabolic load on the S3 segment. The model predicts that the optimal combination of SGLT2/SGLT1 inhibition lowers the oxygen requirements of key tubular segments, but decreases urine flow and [Formula: see text] excretion; the latter effect may limit the cardiovascular protection of the treatment.

Microbes as engines of ecosystem function: When does community structure enhance predictions of ecosystem processes?

DOE PAGES

Graham, Emily B.; Knelman, Joseph E.; Schindlbacher, Andreas; ...

2016-02-24

In this study, microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth’s biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: ‘When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?’ We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of processmore » rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology.« less

Microbes as engines of ecosystem function: When does community structure enhance predictions of ecosystem processes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Emily B.; Knelman, Joseph E.; Schindlbacher, Andreas

In this study, microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth’s biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: ‘When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?’ We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of processmore » rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology.« less

Microbes as Engines of Ecosystem Function: When Does Community Structure Enhance Predictions of Ecosystem Processes?

PubMed Central

Graham, Emily B.; Knelman, Joseph E.; Schindlbacher, Andreas; Siciliano, Steven; Breulmann, Marc; Yannarell, Anthony; Beman, J. M.; Abell, Guy; Philippot, Laurent; Prosser, James; Foulquier, Arnaud; Yuste, Jorge C.; Glanville, Helen C.; Jones, Davey L.; Angel, Roey; Salminen, Janne; Newton, Ryan J.; Bürgmann, Helmut; Ingram, Lachlan J.; Hamer, Ute; Siljanen, Henri M. P.; Peltoniemi, Krista; Potthast, Karin; Bañeras, Lluís; Hartmann, Martin; Banerjee, Samiran; Yu, Ri-Qing; Nogaro, Geraldine; Richter, Andreas; Koranda, Marianne; Castle, Sarah C.; Goberna, Marta; Song, Bongkeun; Chatterjee, Amitava; Nunes, Olga C.; Lopes, Ana R.; Cao, Yiping; Kaisermann, Aurore; Hallin, Sara; Strickland, Michael S.; Garcia-Pausas, Jordi; Barba, Josep; Kang, Hojeong; Isobe, Kazuo; Papaspyrou, Sokratis; Pastorelli, Roberta; Lagomarsino, Alessandra; Lindström, Eva S.; Basiliko, Nathan; Nemergut, Diana R.

2016-01-01

Microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth’s biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: ‘When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?’ We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of process rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology. PMID:26941732

Microbes as Engines of Ecosystem Function: When Does Community Structure Enhance Predictions of Ecosystem Processes?

PubMed

Graham, Emily B; Knelman, Joseph E; Schindlbacher, Andreas; Siciliano, Steven; Breulmann, Marc; Yannarell, Anthony; Beman, J M; Abell, Guy; Philippot, Laurent; Prosser, James; Foulquier, Arnaud; Yuste, Jorge C; Glanville, Helen C; Jones, Davey L; Angel, Roey; Salminen, Janne; Newton, Ryan J; Bürgmann, Helmut; Ingram, Lachlan J; Hamer, Ute; Siljanen, Henri M P; Peltoniemi, Krista; Potthast, Karin; Bañeras, Lluís; Hartmann, Martin; Banerjee, Samiran; Yu, Ri-Qing; Nogaro, Geraldine; Richter, Andreas; Koranda, Marianne; Castle, Sarah C; Goberna, Marta; Song, Bongkeun; Chatterjee, Amitava; Nunes, Olga C; Lopes, Ana R; Cao, Yiping; Kaisermann, Aurore; Hallin, Sara; Strickland, Michael S; Garcia-Pausas, Jordi; Barba, Josep; Kang, Hojeong; Isobe, Kazuo; Papaspyrou, Sokratis; Pastorelli, Roberta; Lagomarsino, Alessandra; Lindström, Eva S; Basiliko, Nathan; Nemergut, Diana R

2016-01-01

Microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth's biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: 'When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?' We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of process rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology.

Fuzzy time series forecasting model with natural partitioning length approach for predicting the unemployment rate under different degree of confidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Nazirah; Mutalib, Siti Musleha Ab; Mohamad, Daud

2017-08-01

Fuzzy time series forecasting model has been proposed since 1993 to cater for data in linguistic values. Many improvement and modification have been made to the model such as enhancement on the length of interval and types of fuzzy logical relation. However, most of the improvement models represent the linguistic term in the form of discrete fuzzy sets. In this paper, fuzzy time series model with data in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and natural partitioning length approach is introduced for predicting the unemployment rate. Two types of fuzzy relations are used in this study which are first order and second order fuzzy relation. This proposed model can produce the forecasted values under different degree of confidence.

Capillary flow enhancement in rectangular polymer microchannels with a deformable wall.

PubMed

Anoop, R; Sen, A K

2015-07-01

We report the capillary flow enhancement in rectangular polymer microchannels, when one of the channel walls is a deformable polymer membrane. We provide detailed insight into the physics of elastocapillary interaction between the capillary flow and elastic membrane, which leads to significant improvements in capillary flow performance. As liquid flows by capillary action in such channels, the deformable wall deflects inwards due to the Young-Laplace pressure drop across the liquid meniscus. This, in turn, decreases the radius of curvature of the meniscus and increases the driving capillary pressure. A theoretical model is proposed to predict the resultant increase in filling speed and rise height, respectively, in deformable horizontal and vertical microchannels having large aspect ratios. A non-dimensional parameter J, which represents the ratio of the capillary force to the mechanical restoring force, is identified to quantify the elastocapillary effects in terms of the improvement in filling speed (for J>0.238) and the condition for channel collapse (J>1). The theoretical predictions show good agreement with experimental data obtained using deformable rectangular poly(dimethylsiloxane) microchannels. Both model predictions and experimental data show that over 15% improvement in the Washburn coefficient in horizontal channels, and over 30% improvement in capillary rise height in vertical channels, are possible prior to channel collapse. The proposed technique of using deformable membranes as channel walls is a viable method for capillary flow enhancement in microfluidic devices.

Current collection from the space plasma through defects in high voltage solar array insulation. Ph.D. Thesis. Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stillwell, R. P.

1983-01-01

For spacecraft operation in the near Earth environment, solar cell arrays constitute the major source of reliable long term power. Optimization of mass and power efficiency results in a general requirement for high voltage solar arrays. The space plasma environment, though, can result in large currents being collected by exposed solar cells. The solution of a protective covering of transparent insulation is not a complete solution, inasmuch as defects in the insulation result in anomalously large currents being collected through the defects. Tests simulating the electron collection from small defects in an insulation have shown that there are two major collection modes. The first mode involves current enhancement by means of a surface phenomenon involving the surrounding insulator. In the second mode the current collection is enhanced by vaporization and ionization of the insulators materials, in addition to the surface enhancement of the first mode. A model for the electron collection is the surface enhanced collection mode was developed. The model relates the secondary electron emission yield to the electron collection. It correctly predicts the qualitative effects of hole size, sample temperature and roughening of sample surface. The theory was also shown to predict electron collection within a factor of two for the polymers teflon and polyimide.

A Collaborative Location Based Travel Recommendation System through Enhanced Rating Prediction for the Group of Users

PubMed Central

Ravi, Logesh; Vairavasundaram, Subramaniyaswamy

2016-01-01

Rapid growth of web and its applications has created a colossal importance for recommender systems. Being applied in various domains, recommender systems were designed to generate suggestions such as items or services based on user interests. Basically, recommender systems experience many issues which reflects dwindled effectiveness. Integrating powerful data management techniques to recommender systems can address such issues and the recommendations quality can be increased significantly. Recent research on recommender systems reveals an idea of utilizing social network data to enhance traditional recommender system with better prediction and improved accuracy. This paper expresses views on social network data based recommender systems by considering usage of various recommendation algorithms, functionalities of systems, different types of interfaces, filtering techniques, and artificial intelligence techniques. After examining the depths of objectives, methodologies, and data sources of the existing models, the paper helps anyone interested in the development of travel recommendation systems and facilitates future research direction. We have also proposed a location recommendation system based on social pertinent trust walker (SPTW) and compared the results with the existing baseline random walk models. Later, we have enhanced the SPTW model for group of users recommendations. The results obtained from the experiments have been presented. PMID:27069468

Dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced perfusion MR imaging at 1.5 T predicts final infarct size in a rat stroke model.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Suzuki, Yasuhiro; Nagai, Nobuo; Peeters, Ronald; Marchal, Guy; Ni, Yicheng

2005-01-30

The purpose of the present animal experiment was to determine whether source images from dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced perfusion weighted imaging (DSC-PWI) at a 1.5T MR scanner, performed early after photochemically induced thrombosis (PIT) of cerebral middle artery (MCA), is feasible to predict final cerebral infarct size in a rat stroke model. Fifteen rats were subjected to PIT of proximal MCA. T2 weighted imaging (T2WI), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and contrast-enhanced PWI were obtained at 1 h and 24 h after MCA occlusion. The relative lesion size (RLS) was defined as lesion volume/brain volume x 100% and measured for MR images, and compared with the final RLS on the gold standard triphenyl tetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining at 24 h. One hour after MCA occlusion, the RLS with DSC-PWI was 24.9 +/- 6.3%, which was significantly larger than 17.6 +/- 4.8% with DWI (P < 0.01). At 24 h, the final RLS on TTC was 24.3 +/- 4.8%, which was comparable to 25.1 +/- 3.5%, 24.6 +/- 3.6% and 27.9 +/- 6.8% with T2WI, DWI and DSC-PWI respectively (P > 0.05). The fact that at 1 h after MCA occlusion only the displayed perfusion deficit was similar to the final infarct size on TTC (P > 0.05) suggests that early source images from DSC-PWI at 1.5T MR scanner is feasible to noninvasively predict the final infarct size in rat models of stroke.

How Does Leaf Anatomy Influence Water Transport outside the Xylem?1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Buckley, Thomas N.; Scoffoni, Christine; Sack, Lawren

2015-01-01

Leaves are arguably the most complex and important physicobiological systems in the ecosphere. Yet, water transport outside the leaf xylem remains poorly understood, despite its impacts on stomatal function and photosynthesis. We applied anatomical measurements from 14 diverse species to a novel model of water flow in an areole (the smallest region bounded by minor veins) to predict the impact of anatomical variation across species on outside-xylem hydraulic conductance (Kox). Several predictions verified previous correlational studies: (1) vein length per unit area is the strongest anatomical determinant of Kox, due to effects on hydraulic pathlength and bundle sheath (BS) surface area; (2) palisade mesophyll remains well hydrated in hypostomatous species, which may benefit photosynthesis, (3) BS extensions enhance Kox; and (4) the upper and lower epidermis are hydraulically sequestered from one another despite their proximity. Our findings also provided novel insights: (5) the BS contributes a minority of outside-xylem resistance; (6) vapor transport contributes up to two-thirds of Kox; (7) Kox is strongly enhanced by the proximity of veins to lower epidermis; and (8) Kox is strongly influenced by spongy mesophyll anatomy, decreasing with protoplast size and increasing with airspace fraction and cell wall thickness. Correlations between anatomy and Kox across species sometimes diverged from predicted causal effects, demonstrating the need for integrative models to resolve causation. For example, (9) Kox was enhanced far more in heterobaric species than predicted by their having BS extensions. Our approach provides detailed insights into the role of anatomical variation in leaf function. PMID:26084922

Drinking Motives in the Prospective Prediction of Unique Alcohol-Related Consequences in College Students

PubMed Central

Merrill, Jennifer E.; Wardell, Jeffrey D.; Read, Jennifer P.

2014-01-01

Objective: Although college students experience a diverse range of alcohol consequences, most studies focus on global, rather than distinct, consequence types. One predictor of unique consequences—drinking motives—has been studied only cross-sectionally. We aimed to examine the prediction of unique alcohol consequence domains (social/interpersonal, academic/occupational, risky behavior, impaired control, poor self-care, diminished self-perception, blackout drinking, and physiological dependence) by coping and enhancement motives over the course of one year. We hypothesized that coping motives would directly predict and that enhancement motives would indirectly (through alcohol use) predict unique consequences. Method: Web surveys were administered to a sample of college students (n = 552, 62% female) at the beginning of the fall semester for 2 consecutive academic years. Structural equation modeling was used to test direct and indirect paths from motives to consequences. Results: The data supported hypothesized direct, prospective paths from coping motives to several alcohol consequences (impaired control, diminished self-perception, poor self-care, risky behaviors, academic/occupational, and physiological dependence). These associations were not mediated by alcohol consumption. Enhancement motives were indirectly associated with all eight consequence domains by way of increased alcohol use at follow-up. Models were invariant across gender, year in school, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress. Conclusions: Findings suggest that whether motives act as a final common pathway to problem drinking may depend on which motives and which drinking outcomes are examined. As coping motives demonstrate a direct link to unique alcohol problem types over time, individuals endorsing these motives may need to be prioritized for intervention. PMID:24411801

Novel Virtual User Models of Mild Cognitive Impairment for Simulating Dementia

PubMed Central

Segkouli, Sofia; Tzovaras, Dimitrios; Tsakiris, Thanos; Tsolaki, Magda; Karagiannidis, Charalampos

2015-01-01

Virtual user modeling research has attempted to address critical issues of human-computer interaction (HCI) such as usability and utility through a large number of analytic, usability-oriented approaches as cognitive models in order to provide users with experiences fitting to their specific needs. However, there is demand for more specific modules embodied in cognitive architecture that will detect abnormal cognitive decline across new synthetic task environments. Also, accessibility evaluation of graphical user interfaces (GUIs) requires considerable effort for enhancing ICT products accessibility for older adults. The main aim of this study is to develop and test virtual user models (VUM) simulating mild cognitive impairment (MCI) through novel specific modules, embodied at cognitive models and defined by estimations of cognitive parameters. Well-established MCI detection tests assessed users' cognition, elaborated their ability to perform multitasks, and monitored the performance of infotainment related tasks to provide more accurate simulation results on existing conceptual frameworks and enhanced predictive validity in interfaces' design supported by increased tasks' complexity to capture a more detailed profile of users' capabilities and limitations. The final outcome is a more robust cognitive prediction model, accurately fitted to human data to be used for more reliable interfaces' evaluation through simulation on the basis of virtual models of MCI users. PMID:26339282

Biomimetic staggered composites with highly enhanced energy dissipation: Modeling, 3D printing, and testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Pu; Heyne, Mary A.; To, Albert C.

2015-10-01

We investigate the damping enhancement in a class of biomimetic staggered composites via a combination of design, modeling, and experiment. In total, three kinds of staggered composites are designed by mimicking the structure of bone and nacre. These composite designs are realized by 3D printing a rigid plastic and a viscous elastomer simultaneously. Greatly-enhanced energy dissipation in the designed composites is observed from both the experimental results and theoretical prediction. The designed polymer composites have loss modulus up to ~500 MPa, higher than most of the existing polymers. In addition, their specific loss modulus (up to 0.43 km2/s2) is among the highest of damping materials. The damping enhancement is attributed to the large shear deformation of the viscous soft matrix and the large strengthening effect from the rigid inclusion phase.

A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puotinen, Marji; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Beeden, Roger; Radford, Ben; Williams, Gareth J.

2016-05-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the ‘damage zone’) enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia’s Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models - including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.

A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs.

PubMed

Puotinen, Marji; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Beeden, Roger; Radford, Ben; Williams, Gareth J

2016-05-17

Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models - including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.

Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.

The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity aremore » capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.« less

Practical application of contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance mammography [CE-MRM] by an algorithm combining morphological and enhancement patterns.

PubMed

Potente, Giuseppe; Messineo, Daniela; Maggi, Claudia; Savelli, Sara

2009-03-01

The purpose of this article is to report our practical utilization of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance mammography [DCE-MRM] in the diagnosis of breast lesions. In many European centers, was preferred a high-temporal acquisition of both breasts simultaneously in a large FOV. We preferred to scan single breasts, with the aim to combine the analysis of the contrast intake and washout with the morphological evaluation of breast lesions. We followed an interpretation model, based upon a diagnostic algorithm, which combined contrast enhancement with morphological evaluation, in order to increase our confidence in diagnosis. DCE-MRM with our diagnostic algorithm has identified 179 malignant and 41 benign lesions; final outcome has identified 178 malignant and 42 benign lesions, 3 false positives and 2 false negatives. Sensitivity of CE-MRM was 98.3%; specificity, 95.1%; positive predictive value, 98.9%; negative predictive value, 92.8% and accuracy, 97.7%.

Conjunction of wavelet transform and SOM-mutual information data pre-processing approach for AI-based Multi-Station nitrate modeling of watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nourani, Vahid; Andalib, Gholamreza; Dąbrowska, Dominika

2017-05-01

Accurate nitrate load predictions can elevate decision management of water quality of watersheds which affects to environment and drinking water. In this paper, two scenarios were considered for Multi-Station (MS) nitrate load modeling of the Little River watershed. In the first scenario, Markovian characteristics of streamflow-nitrate time series were proposed for the MS modeling. For this purpose, feature extraction criterion of Mutual Information (MI) was employed for input selection of artificial intelligence models (Feed Forward Neural Network, FFNN and least square support vector machine). In the second scenario for considering seasonality-based characteristics of the time series, wavelet transform was used to extract multi-scale features of streamflow-nitrate time series of the watershed's sub-basins to model MS nitrate loads. Self-Organizing Map (SOM) clustering technique which finds homogeneous sub-series clusters was also linked to MI for proper cluster agent choice to be imposed into the models for predicting the nitrate loads of the watershed's sub-basins. The proposed MS method not only considers the prediction of the outlet nitrate but also covers predictions of interior sub-basins nitrate load values. The results indicated that the proposed FFNN model coupled with the SOM-MI improved the performance of MS nitrate predictions compared to the Markovian-based models up to 39%. Overall, accurate selection of dominant inputs which consider seasonality-based characteristics of streamflow-nitrate process could enhance the efficiency of nitrate load predictions.

Predicting response before initiation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer using new methods for the analysis of dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE MRI) data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeGrandchamp, Joseph B.; Whisenant, Jennifer G.; Arlinghaus, Lori R.; Abramson, V. G.; Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Cárdenas-Rodríguez, Julio

2016-03-01

The pharmacokinetic parameters derived from dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI have shown promise as biomarkers for tumor response to therapy. However, standard methods of analyzing DCE MRI data (Tofts model) require high temporal resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and the Arterial Input Function (AIF). Such models produce reliable biomarkers of response only when a therapy has a large effect on the parameters. We recently reported a method that solves the limitations, the Linear Reference Region Model (LRRM). Similar to other reference region models, the LRRM needs no AIF. Additionally, the LRRM is more accurate and precise than standard methods at low SNR and slow temporal resolution, suggesting LRRM-derived biomarkers could be better predictors. Here, the LRRM, Non-linear Reference Region Model (NRRM), Linear Tofts model (LTM), and Non-linear Tofts Model (NLTM) were used to estimate the RKtrans between muscle and tumor (or the Ktrans for Tofts) and the tumor kep,TOI for 39 breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). These parameters and the receptor statuses of each patient were used to construct cross-validated predictive models to classify patients as complete pathological responders (pCR) or non-complete pathological responders (non-pCR) to NAC. Model performance was evaluated using area under the ROC curve (AUC). The AUC for receptor status alone was 0.62, while the best performance using predictors from the LRRM, NRRM, LTM, and NLTM were AUCs of 0.79, 0.55, 0.60, and 0.59 respectively. This suggests that the LRRM can be used to predict response to NAC in breast cancer.

Computation of Alfvèn eigenmode stability and saturation through a reduced fast ion transport model in the TRANSP tokamak transport code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podestà, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Gorelenkov, N. N.; White, R. B.

2017-09-01

Alfvénic instabilities (AEs) are well known as a potential cause of enhanced fast ion transport in fusion devices. Given a specific plasma scenario, quantitative predictions of (i) expected unstable AE spectrum and (ii) resulting fast ion transport are required to prevent or mitigate the AE-induced degradation in fusion performance. Reduced models are becoming an attractive tool to analyze existing scenarios as well as for scenario prediction in time-dependent simulations. In this work, a neutral beam heated NSTX discharge is used as reference to illustrate the potential of a reduced fast ion transport model, known as kick model, that has been recently implemented for interpretive and predictive analysis within the framework of the time-dependent tokamak transport code TRANSP. Predictive capabilities for AE stability and saturation amplitude are first assessed, based on given thermal plasma profiles only. Predictions are then compared to experimental results, and the interpretive capabilities of the model further discussed. Overall, the reduced model captures the main properties of the instabilities and associated effects on the fast ion population. Additional information from the actual experiment enables further tuning of the model’s parameters to achieve a close match with measurements.

Voxelized Computational Model for Convection-Enhanced Delivery in the Rat Ventral Hippocampus: Comparison with In Vivo MR Experimental Studies

PubMed Central

Kim, Jung Hwan; Astary, Garrett W.; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Mareci, Thomas H.; Carney, Paul R.; Sarntinoranont, Malisa

2012-01-01

Convection-enhanced delivery (CED) is a promising local delivery technique for overcoming the blood–brain barrier (BBB) and treating diseases of the central nervous system (CNS). For CED, therapeutics are infused directly into brain tissue and the drug agent is spread through the extracellular space, considered to be highly tortuous porous media. In this study, 3D computational models developed using magnetic resonance (MR) diffusion tensor imaging data sets were used to predict CED transport in the rat ventral hippocampus using a voxelized modeling previously developed by our group. Predicted albumin tracer distributions were compared with MR-measured distributions from in vivo CED in the ventral hippocampus up to 10 μL of Gd-DTPA albumin tracer infusion. Predicted and measured tissue distribution volumes and distribution patterns after 5 and 10 μL infusions were found to be comparable. Tracers were found to occupy the underlying landmark structures with preferential transport found in regions with less fluid resistance such as the molecular layer of the dentate gyrus. Also, tracer spread was bounded by high fluid resistance layers such as the granular cell layer and pyramidal cell layer of dentate gyrus. Leakage of tracers into adjacent CSF spaces was observed towards the end of infusions. PMID:22532321

Countering imbalanced datasets to improve adverse drug event predictive models in labor and delivery.

PubMed

Taft, L M; Evans, R S; Shyu, C R; Egger, M J; Chawla, N; Mitchell, J A; Thornton, S N; Bray, B; Varner, M

2009-04-01

The IOM report, Preventing Medication Errors, emphasizes the overall lack of knowledge of the incidence of adverse drug events (ADE). Operating rooms, emergency departments and intensive care units are known to have a higher incidence of ADE. Labor and delivery (L&D) is an emergency care unit that could have an increased risk of ADE, where reported rates remain low and under-reporting is suspected. Risk factor identification with electronic pattern recognition techniques could improve ADE detection rates. The objective of the present study is to apply Synthetic Minority Over Sampling Technique (SMOTE) as an enhanced sampling method in a sparse dataset to generate prediction models to identify ADE in women admitted for labor and delivery based on patient risk factors and comorbidities. By creating synthetic cases with the SMOTE algorithm and using a 10-fold cross-validation technique, we demonstrated improved performance of the Naïve Bayes and the decision tree algorithms. The true positive rate (TPR) of 0.32 in the raw dataset increased to 0.67 in the 800% over-sampled dataset. Enhanced performance from classification algorithms can be attained with the use of synthetic minority class oversampling techniques in sparse clinical datasets. Predictive models created in this manner can be used to develop evidence based ADE monitoring systems.

Enhancing VELMA's Watershed Delineation and Performance with Ancillary Stream Data

EPA Science Inventory

VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessment) is a hydro-ecological landscape disturbance model developed to predict the effectiveness of alternative green infrastructure scenarios for protecting water quality, and also to estimate potential ecosystem service co-b...

Toward Enhancing Automated Credibility Assessment: A Model for Question Type Classification and Tools for Linguistic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moffitt, Kevin Christopher

2011-01-01

The three objectives of this dissertation were to develop a question type model for predicting linguistic features of responses to interview questions, create a tool for linguistic analysis of documents, and use lexical bundle analysis to identify linguistic differences between fraudulent and non-fraudulent financial reports. First, The Moffitt…

Modeling impacts of management on carbon sequestration and trace gas emissions in forested wetland ecosystems

Treesearch

Changsheng Li; Jianbo Cui

2004-01-01

A process- based model, Wetland-DNDC, was modified to enhance its capacity to predict the impacts of management practices on carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forested wetland ecosystems. The modifications included parameterization of management practices fe.g., forest harvest, chopping, burning, water management, fertilization, and tree planting),...

Material Stream Strategy for Lithium and Inorganics (U)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Safarik, Douglas Joseph; Dunn, Paul Stanton; Korzekwa, Deniece Rochelle

Design Agency Responsibilities: Manufacturing Support to meet Stockpile Stewardship goals for maintaining the nuclear stockpile through experimental and predictive modeling capability. Development and maintenance of Manufacturing Science expertise to assess material specifications and performance boundaries, and their relationship to processing parameters. Production Engineering Evaluations with competence in design requirements, material specifications, and manufacturing controls. Maintenance and enhancement of Aging Science expertise to support Stockpile Stewardship predictive science capability.

PBPK models for the prediction of in vivo performance of oral dosage forms.

PubMed

Kostewicz, Edmund S; Aarons, Leon; Bergstrand, Martin; Bolger, Michael B; Galetin, Aleksandra; Hatley, Oliver; Jamei, Masoud; Lloyd, Richard; Pepin, Xavier; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Sjögren, Erik; Tannergren, Christer; Turner, David B; Wagner, Christian; Weitschies, Werner; Dressman, Jennifer

2014-06-16

Drug absorption from the gastrointestinal (GI) tract is a highly complex process dependent upon numerous factors including the physicochemical properties of the drug, characteristics of the formulation and interplay with the underlying physiological properties of the GI tract. The ability to accurately predict oral drug absorption during drug product development is becoming more relevant given the current challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling provides an approach that enables the plasma concentration-time profiles to be predicted from preclinical in vitro and in vivo data and can thus provide a valuable resource to support decisions at various stages of the drug development process. Whilst there have been quite a few successes with PBPK models identifying key issues in the development of new drugs in vivo, there are still many aspects that need to be addressed in order to maximize the utility of the PBPK models to predict drug absorption, including improving our understanding of conditions in the lower small intestine and colon, taking the influence of disease on GI physiology into account and further exploring the reasons behind population variability. Importantly, there is also a need to create more appropriate in vitro models for testing dosage form performance and to streamline data input from these into the PBPK models. As part of the Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project, this review provides a summary of the current status of PBPK models available. The current challenges in PBPK set-ups for oral drug absorption including the composition of GI luminal contents, transit and hydrodynamics, permeability and intestinal wall metabolism are discussed in detail. Further, the challenges regarding the appropriate integration of results from in vitro models, such as consideration of appropriate integration/estimation of solubility and the complexity of the in vitro release and precipitation data, are also highlighted as important steps to advancing the application of PBPK models in drug development. It is expected that the "innovative" integration of in vitro data from more appropriate in vitro models and the enhancement of the GI physiology component of PBPK models, arising from the OrBiTo project, will lead to a significant enhancement in the ability of PBPK models to successfully predict oral drug absorption and advance their role in preclinical and clinical development, as well as for regulatory applications. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporation of satellite remote sensing pan-sharpened imagery into digital soil prediction and mapping models to characterize soil property variability in small agricultural fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yiming; Smith, Scot E.; Grunwald, Sabine; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Wani, Suhas P.

2017-01-01

Soil prediction models based on spectral indices from some multispectral images are too coarse to characterize spatial pattern of soil properties in small and heterogeneous agricultural lands. Image pan-sharpening has seldom been utilized in Digital Soil Mapping research before. This research aimed to analyze the effects of pan-sharpened (PAN) remote sensing spectral indices on soil prediction models in smallholder farm settings. This research fused the panchromatic band and multispectral (MS) bands of WorldView-2, GeoEye-1, and Landsat 8 images in a village in Southern India by Brovey, Gram-Schmidt and Intensity-Hue-Saturation methods. Random Forest was utilized to develop soil total nitrogen (TN) and soil exchangeable potassium (Kex) prediction models by incorporating multiple spectral indices from the PAN and MS images. Overall, our results showed that PAN remote sensing spectral indices have similar spectral characteristics with soil TN and Kex as MS remote sensing spectral indices. There is no soil prediction model incorporating the specific type of pan-sharpened spectral indices always had the strongest prediction capability of soil TN and Kex. The incorporation of pan-sharpened remote sensing spectral data not only increased the spatial resolution of the soil prediction maps, but also enhanced the prediction accuracy of soil prediction models. Small farms with limited footprint, fragmented ownership and diverse crop cycle should benefit greatly from the pan-sharpened high spatial resolution imagery for soil property mapping. Our results show that multiple high and medium resolution images can be used to map soil properties suggesting the possibility of an improvement in the maps' update frequency. Additionally, the results should benefit the large agricultural community through the reduction of routine soil sampling cost and improved prediction accuracy.

Rising CO2 Levels Will Intensify Phytoplankton Blooms in Eutrophic and Hypertrophic Lakes

PubMed Central

Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Van de Waal, Dedmer B.; Finke, Jan F.; Visser, Petra M.; Van Donk, Ellen; Huisman, Jef

2014-01-01

Harmful algal blooms threaten the water quality of many eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes and cause severe ecological and economic damage worldwide. Dense blooms often deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration and raise pH. Yet, quantitative prediction of the feedbacks between phytoplankton growth, CO2 drawdown and the inorganic carbon chemistry of aquatic ecosystems has received surprisingly little attention. Here, we develop a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pH and alkalinity during phytoplankton bloom development. We tested the model in chemostat experiments with the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa at different CO2 levels. The experiments showed that dense blooms sequestered large amounts of atmospheric CO2, not only by their own biomass production but also by inducing a high pH and alkalinity that enhanced the capacity for DIC storage in the system. We used the model to explore how phytoplankton blooms of eutrophic waters will respond to rising CO2 levels. The model predicts that (1) dense phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters can deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration to limiting levels and raise the pH over a relatively wide range of atmospheric CO2 conditions, (2) rising atmospheric CO2 levels will enhance phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters with high nutrient loads, and (3) above some threshold, rising atmospheric CO2 will alleviate phytoplankton blooms from carbon limitation, resulting in less intense CO2 depletion and a lesser increase in pH. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model predictions were qualitatively robust. Quantitatively, the predictions were sensitive to variation in lake depth, DIC input and CO2 gas transfer across the air-water interface, but relatively robust to variation in the carbon uptake mechanisms of phytoplankton. In total, these findings warn that rising CO2 levels may result in a marked intensification of phytoplankton blooms in eutrophic and hypertrophic waters. PMID:25119996

Free energy, precision and learning: the role of cholinergic neuromodulation

PubMed Central

Moran, Rosalyn J.; Campo, Pablo; Symmonds, Mkael; Stephan, Klaas E.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

2014-01-01

Acetylcholine (ACh) is a neuromodulatory transmitter implicated in perception and learning under uncertainty. This study combined computational simulations and pharmaco-electroencephalography in humans, to test a formulation of perceptual inference based upon the free energy principle. This formulation suggests that acetylcholine enhances the precision of bottom-up synaptic transmission in cortical hierarchies by optimising the gain of supragranular pyramidal cells. Simulations of a mismatch negativity paradigm predicted a rapid trial-by-trial suppression of evoked sensory prediction error (PE) responses that is attenuated by cholinergic neuromodulation. We confirmed this prediction empirically with a placebo-controlled study of cholinesterase inhibition. Furthermore – using dynamic causal modelling – we found that drug-induced differences in PE responses could be explained by gain modulation in supragranular pyramidal cells in primary sensory cortex. This suggests that acetylcholine adaptively enhances sensory precision by boosting bottom-up signalling when stimuli are predictable, enabling the brain to respond optimally under different levels of environmental uncertainty. PMID:23658161

A possible formation channel for blue hook stars in globular cluster - II. Effects of metallicity, mass ratio, tidal enhancement efficiency and helium abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Zhenxin; Zhao, Gang; Zeng, Aihua; Shen, Lihua; Lan, Zhongjian; Jiang, Dengkai; Han, Zhanwen

2016-12-01

Employing tidally enhanced stellar wind, we studied in binaries the effects of metallicity, mass ratio of primary to secondary, tidal enhancement efficiency and helium abundance on the formation of blue hook (BHk) stars in globular clusters (GCs). A total of 28 sets of binary models combined with different input parameters are studied. For each set of binary model, we presented a range of initial orbital periods that is needed to produce BHk stars in binaries. All the binary models could produce BHk stars within different range of initial orbital periods. We also compared our results with the observation in the Teff-logg diagram of GC NGC 2808 and ω Cen. Most of the BHk stars in these two GCs locate well in the region predicted by our theoretical models, especially when C/N-enhanced model atmospheres are considered. We found that mass ratio of primary to secondary and tidal enhancement efficiency have little effects on the formation of BHk stars in binaries, while metallicity and helium abundance would play important roles, especially for helium abundance. Specifically, with helium abundance increasing in binary models, the space range of initial orbital periods needed to produce BHk stars becomes obviously wider, regardless of other input parameters adopted. Our results were discussed with recent observations and other theoretical models.

Dynamic and fluid–structure interaction simulations of bioprosthetic heart valves using parametric design with T-splines and Fung-type material models

PubMed Central

Kamensky, David; Xu, Fei; Kiendl, Josef; Wang, Chenglong; Wu, Michael C. H.; Mineroff, Joshua; Reali, Alessandro; Bazilevs, Yuri; Sacks, Michael S.

2015-01-01

This paper builds on a recently developed immersogeometric fluid–structure interaction (FSI) methodology for bioprosthetic heart valve (BHV) modeling and simulation. It enhances the proposed framework in the areas of geometry design and constitutive modeling. With these enhancements, BHV FSI simulations may be performed with greater levels of automation, robustness and physical realism. In addition, the paper presents a comparison between FSI analysis and standalone structural dynamics simulation driven by prescribed transvalvular pressure, the latter being a more common modeling choice for this class of problems. The FSI computation achieved better physiological realism in predicting the valve leaflet deformation than its standalone structural dynamics counterpart. PMID:26392645

Prediction of crime occurrence from multi-modal data using deep learning

PubMed Central

Kang, Hyeon-Woo

2017-01-01

In recent years, various studies have been conducted on the prediction of crime occurrences. This predictive capability is intended to assist in crime prevention by facilitating effective implementation of police patrols. Previous studies have used data from multiple domains such as demographics, economics, and education. Their prediction models treat data from different domains equally. These methods have problems in crime occurrence prediction, such as difficulty in discovering highly nonlinear relationships, redundancies, and dependencies between multiple datasets. In order to enhance crime prediction models, we consider environmental context information, such as broken windows theory and crime prevention through environmental design. In this paper, we propose a feature-level data fusion method with environmental context based on a deep neural network (DNN). Our dataset consists of data collected from various online databases of crime statistics, demographic and meteorological data, and images in Chicago, Illinois. Prior to generating training data, we select crime-related data by conducting statistical analyses. Finally, we train our DNN, which consists of the following four kinds of layers: spatial, temporal, environmental context, and joint feature representation layers. Coupled with crucial data extracted from various domains, our fusion DNN is a product of an efficient decision-making process that statistically analyzes data redundancy. Experimental performance results show that our DNN model is more accurate in predicting crime occurrence than other prediction models. PMID:28437486

Prediction of crime occurrence from multi-modal data using deep learning.

PubMed

Kang, Hyeon-Woo; Kang, Hang-Bong

2017-01-01

In recent years, various studies have been conducted on the prediction of crime occurrences. This predictive capability is intended to assist in crime prevention by facilitating effective implementation of police patrols. Previous studies have used data from multiple domains such as demographics, economics, and education. Their prediction models treat data from different domains equally. These methods have problems in crime occurrence prediction, such as difficulty in discovering highly nonlinear relationships, redundancies, and dependencies between multiple datasets. In order to enhance crime prediction models, we consider environmental context information, such as broken windows theory and crime prevention through environmental design. In this paper, we propose a feature-level data fusion method with environmental context based on a deep neural network (DNN). Our dataset consists of data collected from various online databases of crime statistics, demographic and meteorological data, and images in Chicago, Illinois. Prior to generating training data, we select crime-related data by conducting statistical analyses. Finally, we train our DNN, which consists of the following four kinds of layers: spatial, temporal, environmental context, and joint feature representation layers. Coupled with crucial data extracted from various domains, our fusion DNN is a product of an efficient decision-making process that statistically analyzes data redundancy. Experimental performance results show that our DNN model is more accurate in predicting crime occurrence than other prediction models.

Wavelength and intensity dependence of recollision-enhanced multielectron effects in high-order harmonic generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abanador, Paul M.; Mauger, François; Lopata, Kenneth; Gaarde, Mette B.; Schafer, Kenneth J.

2018-04-01

Using a model molecular system (A2) with two active electrons restricted to one dimension, we examine high-order harmonic generation (HHG) enhanced by rescattering. Our results show that even at intensities well below the single ionization saturation, harmonics generated from the cation (A2+ ) can be significantly enhanced due to the rescattering of the electron that is initially ionized. This two-electron effect is manifested by the appearance of a secondary plateau and cutoff in the HHG spectrum, extending beyond the predicted cutoff in the single active electron approximation. We use our molecular model to investigate the wavelength dependence of rescattering enhanced HHG, which was first reported in a model atomic system [I. Tikhomirov, T. Sato, and K. L. Ishikawa, Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 203202 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.203202]. We demonstrate that the HHG yield in the secondary cutoff is highly sensitive to the available electron rescattering energies as indicated by a dramatic scaling with respect to driving wavelength.

On the evolution of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Fingerprint and implications for decadal predictability in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jinting; Zhang, Rong

2015-07-01

It has been suggested previously that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) anomaly associated with changes in the North Atlantic Deep Water formation propagates southward with an advection speed north of 34°N. In this study, using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1), we show that this slow southward propagation of the AMOC anomaly is crucial for the evolution and the enhanced decadal predictability of the AMOC fingerprint—the leading mode of upper ocean heat content (UOHC) in the extratropical North Atlantic. A positive AMOC anomaly in northern high latitudes leads to a convergence/divergence of the Atlantic meridional heat transport (MHT) anomaly in the subpolar/Gulf Stream region, thus warming in the subpolar gyre (SPG) and cooling in the Gulf Stream region after several years. Recent decadal prediction studies successfully predicted the observed warm shift in the SPG in the mid-1990s. Our results here provide the physical mechanism for the enhanced decadal prediction skills in the SPG UOHC.

Enhanced seasonal predictability of the summer mean temperature in Central Europe favored by new dominant weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, P.

2018-04-01

In this study two complementary approaches have been combined to estimate the reliability of the data-driven seasonal predictability of the meteorological summer mean temperature (T_{JJA}) over Europe. The developed model is based on linear regressions and uses early season predictors to estimate the target value T_{JJA}. We found for the Potsdam (Germany) climate station that the monthly standard deviations (σ) from January to April and the temperature mean ( m) in April are good predictors to describe T_{JJA} after 1990. However, before 1990 the model failed. The core region where this model works is the north-eastern part of Central Europe. We also analyzed long-term trends of monthly Hess/Brezowsky weather types as possible causes of the dynamical changes. In spring, a significant increase of the occurrences for two opposite weather patterns was found: Zonal Ridge across Central Europe (BM) and Trough over Central Europe (TRM). Both currently make up about 30% of the total alternating weather systems over Europe. Other weather types are predominantly decreasing or their trends are not significant. Thus, the predictability may be attributed to these two weather types where the difference between the two Z500 composite patterns is large. This also applies to the north-eastern part of Central Europe. Finally, the detected enhanced seasonal predictability over Europe is alarming, because severe side effects may occur. One of these are more frequent climate extremes in summer half-year.

Cocrystal Solubility Product Prediction Using an in combo Model and Simulations to Improve Design of Experiments.

PubMed

Avdeef, Alex

2018-02-02

To predict the aqueous solubility product (K sp ) and the solubility enhancement of cocrystals (CCs), using an approach based on measured drug and coformer intrinsic solubility (S 0 API , S 0 cof ), combined with in silico H-bond descriptors. A regression model was constructed, assuming that the concentration of the uncharged drug (API) can be nearly equated to drug intrinsic solubility (S 0 API ) and that the concentration of the uncharged coformer can be estimated from a linear combination of the log of the coformer intrinsic solubility, S 0 cof , plus in silico H-bond descriptors (Abraham acidities, α, and basicities, β). The optimal model found for n:1 CCs (-log 10 form) is pK sp  = 1.12 n pS 0 API  + 1.07 pS 0 cof  + 1.01 + 0.74 α API ·β cof  - 0.61 β API ; r 2  = 0.95, SD = 0.62, N = 38. In illustrative CC systems with unknown K sp , predicted K sp was used in simulation of speciation-pH profiles. The extent and pH dependence of solubility enhancement due to CC formation were examined. Suggestions to improve assay design were made. The predicted CC K sp can be used to simulate pH-dependent solution characteristics of saturated systems containing CCs, with the aim of ranking the selection of coformers, and of optimizing the design of experiments.

Nurses' intention to leave: critically analyse the theory of reasoned action and organizational commitment model.

PubMed

Liou, Shwu-Ru

2009-01-01

To systematically analyse the Organizational Commitment model and Theory of Reasoned Action and determine concepts that can better explain nurses' intention to leave their job. The Organizational Commitment model and Theory of Reasoned Action have been proposed and applied to understand intention to leave and turnover behaviour, which are major contributors to nursing shortage. However, the appropriateness of applying these two models in nursing was not analysed. Three main criteria of a useful model were used for the analysis: consistency in the use of concepts, testability and predictability. Both theories use concepts consistently. Concepts in the Theory of Reasoned Action are defined broadly whereas they are operationally defined in the Organizational Commitment model. Predictability of the Theory of Reasoned Action is questionable whereas the Organizational Commitment model can be applied to predict intention to leave. A model was proposed based on this analysis. Organizational commitment, intention to leave, work experiences, job characteristics and personal characteristics can be concepts for predicting nurses' intention to leave. Nursing managers may consider nurses' personal characteristics and experiences to increase their organizational commitment and enhance their intention to stay. Empirical studies are needed to test and cross-validate the re-synthesized model for nurses' intention to leave their job.

Process Analytical Technology for Advanced Process Control in Biologics Manufacturing with the Aid of Macroscopic Kinetic Modeling.

PubMed

Kornecki, Martin; Strube, Jochen

2018-03-16

Productivity improvements of mammalian cell culture in the production of recombinant proteins have been made by optimizing cell lines, media, and process operation. This led to enhanced titers and process robustness without increasing the cost of the upstream processing (USP); however, a downstream bottleneck remains. In terms of process control improvement, the process analytical technology (PAT) initiative, initiated by the American Food and Drug Administration (FDA), aims to measure, analyze, monitor, and ultimately control all important attributes of a bioprocess. Especially, spectroscopic methods such as Raman or near-infrared spectroscopy enable one to meet these analytical requirements, preferably in-situ. In combination with chemometric techniques like partial least square (PLS) or principal component analysis (PCA), it is possible to generate soft sensors, which estimate process variables based on process and measurement models for the enhanced control of bioprocesses. Macroscopic kinetic models can be used to simulate cell metabolism. These models are able to enhance the process understanding by predicting the dynamic of cells during cultivation. In this article, in-situ turbidity (transmission, 880 nm) and ex-situ Raman spectroscopy (785 nm) measurements are combined with an offline macroscopic Monod kinetic model in order to predict substrate concentrations. Experimental data of Chinese hamster ovary cultivations in bioreactors show a sufficiently linear correlation (R² ≥ 0.97) between turbidity and total cell concentration. PLS regression of Raman spectra generates a prediction model, which was validated via offline viable cell concentration measurement (RMSE ≤ 13.82, R² ≥ 0.92). Based on these measurements, the macroscopic Monod model can be used to determine different process attributes, e.g., glucose concentration. In consequence, it is possible to approximately calculate (R² ≥ 0.96) glucose concentration based on online cell concentration measurements using turbidity or Raman spectroscopy. Future approaches will use these online substrate concentration measurements with turbidity and Raman measurements, in combination with the kinetic model, in order to control the bioprocess in terms of feeding strategies, by employing an open platform communication (OPC) network-either in fed-batch or perfusion mode, integrated into a continuous operation of upstream and downstream.

Process Analytical Technology for Advanced Process Control in Biologics Manufacturing with the Aid of Macroscopic Kinetic Modeling

PubMed Central

Kornecki, Martin; Strube, Jochen

2018-01-01

Productivity improvements of mammalian cell culture in the production of recombinant proteins have been made by optimizing cell lines, media, and process operation. This led to enhanced titers and process robustness without increasing the cost of the upstream processing (USP); however, a downstream bottleneck remains. In terms of process control improvement, the process analytical technology (PAT) initiative, initiated by the American Food and Drug Administration (FDA), aims to measure, analyze, monitor, and ultimately control all important attributes of a bioprocess. Especially, spectroscopic methods such as Raman or near-infrared spectroscopy enable one to meet these analytical requirements, preferably in-situ. In combination with chemometric techniques like partial least square (PLS) or principal component analysis (PCA), it is possible to generate soft sensors, which estimate process variables based on process and measurement models for the enhanced control of bioprocesses. Macroscopic kinetic models can be used to simulate cell metabolism. These models are able to enhance the process understanding by predicting the dynamic of cells during cultivation. In this article, in-situ turbidity (transmission, 880 nm) and ex-situ Raman spectroscopy (785 nm) measurements are combined with an offline macroscopic Monod kinetic model in order to predict substrate concentrations. Experimental data of Chinese hamster ovary cultivations in bioreactors show a sufficiently linear correlation (R2 ≥ 0.97) between turbidity and total cell concentration. PLS regression of Raman spectra generates a prediction model, which was validated via offline viable cell concentration measurement (RMSE ≤ 13.82, R2 ≥ 0.92). Based on these measurements, the macroscopic Monod model can be used to determine different process attributes, e.g., glucose concentration. In consequence, it is possible to approximately calculate (R2 ≥ 0.96) glucose concentration based on online cell concentration measurements using turbidity or Raman spectroscopy. Future approaches will use these online substrate concentration measurements with turbidity and Raman measurements, in combination with the kinetic model, in order to control the bioprocess in terms of feeding strategies, by employing an open platform communication (OPC) network—either in fed-batch or perfusion mode, integrated into a continuous operation of upstream and downstream. PMID:29547557

Prognostic and Prediction Tools in Bladder Cancer: A Comprehensive Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Kluth, Luis A; Black, Peter C; Bochner, Bernard H; Catto, James; Lerner, Seth P; Stenzl, Arnulf; Sylvester, Richard; Vickers, Andrew J; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2015-08-01

This review focuses on risk assessment and prediction tools for bladder cancer (BCa). To review the current knowledge on risk assessment and prediction tools to enhance clinical decision making and counseling of patients with BCa. A literature search in English was performed using PubMed in July 2013. Relevant risk assessment and prediction tools for BCa were selected. More than 1600 publications were retrieved. Special attention was given to studies that investigated the clinical benefit of a prediction tool. Most prediction tools for BCa focus on the prediction of disease recurrence and progression in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer or disease recurrence and survival after radical cystectomy. Although these tools are helpful, recent prediction tools aim to address a specific clinical problem, such as the prediction of organ-confined disease and lymph node metastasis to help identify patients who might benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Although a large number of prediction tools have been reported in recent years, many of them lack external validation. Few studies have investigated the clinical utility of any given model as measured by its ability to improve clinical decision making. There is a need for novel biomarkers to improve the accuracy and utility of prediction tools for BCa. Decision tools hold the promise of facilitating the shared decision process, potentially improving clinical outcomes for BCa patients. Prediction models need external validation and assessment of clinical utility before they can be incorporated into routine clinical care. We looked at models that aim to predict outcomes for patients with bladder cancer (BCa). We found a large number of prediction models that hold the promise of facilitating treatment decisions for patients with BCa. However, many models are missing confirmation in a different patient cohort, and only a few studies have tested the clinical utility of any given model as measured by its ability to improve clinical decision making. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA AVOSS Fast-Time Wake Prediction Models: User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nash'at N.; VanValkenburg, Randal L.; Pruis, Matthew

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing and testing fast-time wake transport and decay models to safely enhance the capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS). The fast-time wake models are empirical algorithms used for real-time predictions of wake transport and decay based on aircraft parameters and ambient weather conditions. The aircraft dependent parameters include the initial vortex descent velocity and the vortex pair separation distance. The atmospheric initial conditions include vertical profiles of temperature or potential temperature, eddy dissipation rate, and crosswind. The current distribution includes the latest versions of the APA (3.4) and the TDP (2.1) models. This User's Guide provides detailed information on the model inputs, file formats, and the model output. An example of a model run and a brief description of the Memphis 1995 Wake Vortex Dataset is also provided.

Effective cluster model of dielectric enhancement in metal-insulator composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, W. T.; Jacobs, I. S.

1990-11-01

The electrical permittivity of a suspension of conducting spheres at high volume loading exhibits a large enhancement above the value predicted by the Clausius-Mossotti approximation. The permittivity enhancement is a dielectric anomaly accompanying a metallization transition that occurs when conducting particles are close packed. In disordered suspensions, close encounters can cause a permittivity enhancement at any volume loading. We attribute the permittivity enhancements typically observed in monodisperse disordered suspensions of conducting spheres to local metallized regions of high density produced by density fluctuations. We model a disordered suspension as a mixture, or mesosuspension, of isolated spheres and random close-packed spherical clusters of arbitrary size. Multipole interactions within the clusters are treated exactly. External interactions between clusters and isolated spheres are treated in the dipole approximation. Model permittivities are compared with Guillien's experimental permittivity measurements [Ann. Phys. (Paris) Ser. 11, 16, 205 (1941)] on liquid suspensions of Hg droplets in oil and with Turner's conductivity measurements [Chem. Eng. Sci. 31, 487 (1976)] on fluidized bed suspensions of ion-exchange resin beads in aqueous solution. New permittivity measurements at 10 GHz on solid suspensions of monodisperse metal spheres in polyurethane are presented and compared with the model permittivities. The effective spherical cluster model is in excellent agreement with the experiments over the entire accessible range of volume loading.

Dermal uptake of phthalates from clothing: Comparison of model to human participant results.

PubMed

Morrison, G C; Weschler, C J; Bekö, G

2017-05-01

In this research, we extend a model of transdermal uptake of phthalates to include a layer of clothing. When compared with experimental results, this model better estimates dermal uptake of diethylphthalate and di-n-butylphthalate (DnBP) than a previous model. The model predictions are consistent with the observation that previously exposed clothing can increase dermal uptake over that observed in bare-skin participants for the same exposure air concentrations. The model predicts that dermal uptake from clothing of DnBP is a substantial fraction of total uptake from all sources of exposure. For compounds that have high dermal permeability coefficients, dermal uptake is increased for (i) thinner clothing, (ii) a narrower gap between clothing and skin, and (iii) longer time intervals between laundering and wearing. Enhanced dermal uptake is most pronounced for compounds with clothing-air partition coefficients between 10 4 and 10 7 . In the absence of direct measurements of cotton cloth-air partition coefficients, dermal exposure may be predicted using equilibrium data for compounds in equilibrium with cellulose and water, in combination with computational methods of predicting partition coefficients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslowski, Wieslaw

This project aims to develop, apply and evaluate a regional Arctic System model (RASM) for enhanced decadal predictions. Its overarching goal is to advance understanding of the past and present states of arctic climate and to facilitate improvements in seasonal to decadal predictions. In particular, it will focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The project will also address modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change in a region of the Earth that is: (i) a key indicator of the state of global climate throughmore » polar amplification and (ii) which is undergoing environmental transitions not seen in instrumental records. RASM will readily allow the addition of other earth system components, such as ecosystem or biochemistry models, thus allowing it to facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts. As such, RASM is expected to become a foundation for more complete Arctic System models and part of a model hierarchy important for improving climate modeling and predictions.« less

A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles.

PubMed

Omar, Hani; Hoang, Van Hai; Liu, Duen-Ren

2016-01-01

Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words.

A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles

PubMed Central

Omar, Hani; Hoang, Van Hai; Liu, Duen-Ren

2016-01-01

Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words. PMID:27313605

Polymer physics predicts the effects of structural variants on chromatin architecture.

PubMed

Bianco, Simona; Lupiáñez, Darío G; Chiariello, Andrea M; Annunziatella, Carlo; Kraft, Katerina; Schöpflin, Robert; Wittler, Lars; Andrey, Guillaume; Vingron, Martin; Pombo, Ana; Mundlos, Stefan; Nicodemi, Mario

2018-05-01

Structural variants (SVs) can result in changes in gene expression due to abnormal chromatin folding and cause disease. However, the prediction of such effects remains a challenge. Here we present a polymer-physics-based approach (PRISMR) to model 3D chromatin folding and to predict enhancer-promoter contacts. PRISMR predicts higher-order chromatin structure from genome-wide chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C) data. Using the EPHA4 locus as a model, the effects of pathogenic SVs are predicted in silico and compared to Hi-C data generated from mouse limb buds and patient-derived fibroblasts. PRISMR deconvolves the folding complexity of the EPHA4 locus and identifies SV-induced ectopic contacts and alterations of 3D genome organization in homozygous or heterozygous states. We show that SVs can reconfigure topologically associating domains, thereby producing extensive rewiring of regulatory interactions and causing disease by gene misexpression. PRISMR can be used to predict interactions in silico, thereby providing a tool for analyzing the disease-causing potential of SVs.

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 1: Summary of findings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kesel, P. G.

1977-01-01

Atmospheric analysis and prediction models of varying (grid) resolution were developed. The models were tested using real observational data for the purpose of assessing the impact of grid resolution on short range numerical weather prediction. The discretionary model procedures were examined so that the computational viability of SEASAT data might be enhanced during the conduct of (future) sensitivity tests. The analysis effort covers: (1) examining the procedures for allowing data to influence the analysis; (2) examining the effects of varying the weights in the analysis procedure; (3) testing and implementing procedures for solving the minimization equation in an optimal way; (4) describing the impact of grid resolution on analysis; and (5) devising and implementing numerous practical solutions to analysis problems, generally.

Evaluation of calibration efficacy under different levels of uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Heo, Yeonsook; Graziano, Diane J.; Guzowski, Leah; ...

2014-06-10

This study examines how calibration performs under different levels of uncertainty in model input data. It specifically assesses the efficacy of Bayesian calibration to enhance the reliability of EnergyPlus model predictions. A Bayesian approach can be used to update uncertain values of parameters, given measured energy-use data, and to quantify the associated uncertainty.We assess the efficacy of Bayesian calibration under a controlled virtual-reality setup, which enables rigorous validation of the accuracy of calibration results in terms of both calibrated parameter values and model predictions. Case studies demonstrate the performance of Bayesian calibration of base models developed from audit data withmore » differing levels of detail in building design, usage, and operation.« less

Plasticity models of material variability based on uncertainty quantification techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Reese E.; Rizzi, Francesco; Boyce, Brad

The advent of fabrication techniques like additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other micro-structural aspects. This variability motivates the development of an enhanced design methodology that incorporates inherent material variability to provide robust predictions of performance. In this work, we develop plasticity models capable of representing the distribution of mechanical responses observed in experiments using traditional plasticity models of the mean response and recently developed uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques. Lastly, we demonstrate that the new method provides predictive realizations that are superior to more traditional ones, and how these UQmore » techniques can be used in model selection and assessing the quality of calibrated physical parameters.« less

Geostatistical enhancement of european hydrological predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Parajka, Juraj; Arheimer, Berit; Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Montanari, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Geostatistical Enhancement of European Hydrological Prediction (GEEHP) is a research experiment developed within the EU funded SWITCH-ON project, which proposes to conduct comparative experiments in a virtual laboratory in order to share water-related information and tackle changes in the hydrosphere for operational needs (http://www.water-switch-on.eu). The main objective of GEEHP deals with the prediction of streamflow indices and signatures in ungauged basins at different spatial scales. In particular, among several possible hydrological signatures we focus in our experiment on the prediction of flow-duration curves (FDCs) along the stream-network, which has attracted an increasing scientific attention in the last decades due to the large number of practical and technical applications of the curves (e.g. hydropower potential estimation, riverine habitat suitability and ecological assessments, etc.). We apply a geostatistical procedure based on Top-kriging, which has been recently shown to be particularly reliable and easy-to-use regionalization approach, employing two different type of streamflow data: pan-European E-HYPE simulations (http://hypeweb.smhi.se/europehype) and observed daily streamflow series collected in two pilot study regions, i.e. Tyrol (merging data from Austrian and Italian stream gauging networks) and Sweden. The merger of the two study regions results in a rather large area (~450000 km2) and might be considered as a proxy for a pan-European application of the approach. In a first phase, we implement a bidirectional validation, i.e. E-HYPE catchments are set as training sites to predict FDCs at the same sites where observed data are available, and vice-versa. Such a validation procedure reveals (1) the usability of the proposed approach for predicting the FDCs over the entire river network of interest using alternatively observed data and E-HYPE simulations and (2) the accuracy of E-HYPE-based predictions of FDCs in ungauged sites. In a second phase, we develop a module, to be added to the flow-duration curve prediction framework, capable of enhancing E-HYPE-based predictions of FDCs by modelling the residuals obtained from the first phase. Among all possible methods, we apply geostatistical modelling of residuals and, alternatively, regional regression, so that residuals between empirical and E-HYPE-base predicted FDCs are described in terms of geomorphological and climatic catchment descriptors.

Using NASA Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth to Enhance PM2.5 Concentration Datasets for Use in Human Health and Epidemiology Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huff, A. K.; Weber, S.; Braggio, J.; Talbot, T.; Hall, E.

2012-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a criterion air pollutant, and its adverse impacts on human health are well established. Traditionally, studies that analyze the health effects of human exposure to PM2.5 use concentration measurements from ground-based monitors and predicted PM2.5 concentrations from air quality models, such as the U.S. EPA's Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. There are shortcomings associated with these datasets, however. Monitors are not distributed uniformly across the U.S., which causes spatially inhomogeneous measurements of pollutant concentrations. There are often temporal variations as well, since not all monitors make daily measurements. Air quality model output, while spatially and temporally uniform, represents predictions of PM2.5 concentrations, not actual measurements. This study is exploring the potential of combining Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data from the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites with PM2.5 monitor data and CMAQ predictions to create PM2.5 datasets that more accurately reflect the spatial and temporal variations in ambient PM2.5 concentrations on the metropolitan scale, with the overall goal of enhancing capabilities for environmental public health decision-making. AOD data provide regional information about particulate concentrations that can fill in the spatial and temporal gaps in the national PM2.5 monitor network. Furthermore, AOD is a measurement, so it reflects actual concentrations of particulates in the atmosphere, in contrast to PM2.5 predictions from air quality models. Results will be presented from the Battelle/U.S. EPA statistical Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM), which was used to combine three PM2.5 concentration datasets: monitor measurements, AOD data, and CMAQ model predictions. The study is focusing on the Baltimore, MD and New York City, NY metropolitan regions for the period 2004-2006. For each region, combined monitor/AOD/CMAQ PM2.5 datasets generated by the HBM are being correlated with data on inpatient hospitalizations and emergency room visits for seven respiratory and cardiovascular diseases using statistical case-crossover analyses. Preliminary results will be discussed regarding the potential for the addition of AOD data to increase the correlation between PM2.5 concentrations and health outcomes. Environmental public health tracking programs associated with the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, the New York State Department of Health, the CDC, and the U.S. EPA have expressed interest in using the results of this study to enhance their existing environmental health surveillance activities.

In Vivo Validation of Numerical Prediction for Turbulence Intensity in an Aortic Coarctation

PubMed Central

Arzani, Amirhossein; Dyverfeldt, Petter; Ebbers, Tino; Shadden, Shawn C.

2013-01-01

This paper compares numerical predictions of turbulence intensity with in vivo measurement. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was carried out on a 60-year-old female with a restenosed aortic coarctation. Time-resolved three-directional phase-contrast (PC) MRI data was acquired to enable turbulence intensity estimation. A contrast-enhanced MR angiography (MRA) and a time-resolved 2D PCMRI measurement were also performed to acquire data needed to perform subsequent image-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. A 3D model of the aortic coarctation and surrounding vasculature was constructed from the MRA data, and physiologic boundary conditions were modeled to match 2D PCMRI and pressure pulse measurements. Blood flow velocity data was subsequently obtained by numerical simulation. Turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was computed from the resulting CFD data. Results indicate relative agreement (error ≈10%) between the in vivo measurements and the CFD predictions of TKE. The discrepancies in modeled vs. measured TKE values were within expectations due to modeling and measurement errors. PMID:22016327

Dispersal and extrapolation on the accuracy of temporal predictions from distribution models for the Darwin's frog.

PubMed

Uribe-Rivera, David E; Soto-Azat, Claudio; Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Bizama, Gustavo; Simonetti, Javier A; Pliscoff, Patricio

2017-07-01

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity; the development of models that reliably predict its effects on species distributions is a priority for conservation biogeography. Two of the main issues for accurate temporal predictions from Species Distribution Models (SDM) are model extrapolation and unrealistic dispersal scenarios. We assessed the consequences of these issues on the accuracy of climate-driven SDM predictions for the dispersal-limited Darwin's frog Rhinoderma darwinii in South America. We calibrated models using historical data (1950-1975) and projected them across 40 yr to predict distribution under current climatic conditions, assessing predictive accuracy through the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS), contrasting binary model predictions against temporal-independent validation data set (i.e., current presences/absences). To assess the effects of incorporating dispersal processes we compared the predictive accuracy of dispersal constrained models with no dispersal limited SDMs; and to assess the effects of model extrapolation on the predictive accuracy of SDMs, we compared this between extrapolated and no extrapolated areas. The incorporation of dispersal processes enhanced predictive accuracy, mainly due to a decrease in the false presence rate of model predictions, which is consistent with discrimination of suitable but inaccessible habitat. This also had consequences on range size changes over time, which is the most used proxy for extinction risk from climate change. The area of current climatic conditions that was absent in the baseline conditions (i.e., extrapolated areas) represents 39% of the study area, leading to a significant decrease in predictive accuracy of model predictions for those areas. Our results highlight (1) incorporating dispersal processes can improve predictive accuracy of temporal transference of SDMs and reduce uncertainties of extinction risk assessments from global change; (2) as geographical areas subjected to novel climates are expected to arise, they must be reported as they show less accurate predictions under future climate scenarios. Consequently, environmental extrapolation and dispersal processes should be explicitly incorporated to report and reduce uncertainties in temporal predictions of SDMs, respectively. Doing so, we expect to improve the reliability of the information we provide for conservation decision makers under future climate change scenarios. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Prediction of oxygen distribution in aortic valve leaflet considering diffusion and convection.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Korossis, Sotirios; Fisher, John; Ingham, Eileen; Jin, Zhongmin

2011-07-01

Oxygen supply and transport is an important consideration in the development of tissue engineered constructs. Previous studies from our group have focused on the effect of tissue thickness on the oxygen diffusion within a three-dimensional aortic valve leaflet model, and highlighted the necessity for additional transport mechanisms such as oxygen convection. The aims of this study were to investigate the effect of interstitial fluid flow within the aortic valve leaflet, induced by the cyclic loading of the leaflet, on oxygen transport. Indentation testing and finite element modelings were employed to derive the biphasic properties of the leaflet tissue. The biphasic properties were subsequently used in the computational modeling of oxygen convection in the leaflet, which was based on the effective interstitial fluid velocity and the tissue deformation. Subsequently, the oxygen profile was predicted within the valve leaflet model by solving the diffusion and convection equation simultaneously utilizing the finite difference method. The compression modulus (E) and hydraulic permeability were determined by adapting a finite element model to the experimental indentation test on valvular tissue, E = 0.05MPa, and k =2.0 mm4/Ns. Finite element model of oxygen convection in valvular tissue incorporating the predicted biphasic properties was developed and the interstitial fluid flow rate was calculated falling in range of 0.025-0.25 mm/s depending on the tissue depth. Oxygen distribution within valvular tissue was predicted using one-dimensional oxygen diffusion model taking into consider the interstitial fluid effect. It was found that convection did enhance the oxygen transport in valvular tissue by up to 68% increase in the minimum oxygen tension within the tissue, depending on the strain level of the tissue as reaction of the magnitude and frequencies of the cardiac loading. The effective interstitial fluid velocity was found to play an important role in enhancing the oxygen transport within the valve leaflet. Such an understanding is important in the development of valvular tissue engineered constructs.

A Mesoscopic Electromechanical Theory of Ferroelectric Films and Ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiangyu; Bhattacharya, Kaushik

2002-08-01

We present a multi-scale modelling framework to predict the effective electromechanical behavior of ferroelectric ceramics and thin films. This paper specifically focuses on the mesoscopic scale and models the effects of domains and domain switching taking into account intergranular constraints. Starting from the properties of the single crystal and the pre-poling granular texture, the theory predicts the domain patterns, the post-poling texture, the saturation polarization, saturation strain and the electromechanical moduli. We demonstrate remarkable agreement with experimental data. The theory also explains the superior electromechanical property of PZT at the morphotropic phase boundary. The paper concludes with the application of the theory to predict the optimal texture for enhanced electromechanical coupling factors and high-strain actuation in selected materials.

Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

2017-12-01

Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13-24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

2017-11-01

In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Numerical Prediction for Hurricane Juan (2003)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J.; McTaggart-Cowan, R.

2004-05-01

The range of accuracy of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance for the landfall of Hurricane Juan (2003), from nearly perfect to nearly useless, motivates a study of the NWP forecast errors on 28-29 September 2003 in the eastern North Atlantic. Although the forecasts issued over the period were of very high quality, this is primarily because of the diligence of the forecasters, and not related to the reliability of the numerical predictions provided to them by the North American operational centers and the research community. A bifurcation in the forecast fields from various centers and institutes occurred beginning with the 0000 UTC run of 28 September, and continuing until landfall just after 0000 UTC on 29 September. The GFS (NCEP), Eta (NCEP), GEM (Canadian Meteorological Centre; CMC), and MC2 (McGill) forecast models all showed an extremely weak (minimum SLP above 1000 hPa) remnant vortex moving north-northwestward into the Gulf of Maine and merging with a diabatically-developed surface low offshore. The GFS uses a vortex-relocation scheme, the Eta a vortex bogus, and the GEM and MC2 are run on CMC analyses that contain no enhanced vortex. The UK Met Office operational, the GFDL, and the NOGAPS (US Navy) forecast models all ran a small-scale hurricane-like vortex directly into Nova Scotia and verified very well for this case. The UKMO model uses synthetic observations to enhance structures in poorly-forecasted areas during the analysis cycle and both the GFDL and NOGAPS model use advanced idealized vortex bogusing in their initial conditions. The quality of the McGill MC2 forecast is found to be significantly enhanced using a bogusing technique similar to that used in the initialization of the successful forecast models. A verification of the improved forecast is presented along with a discussion of the need for operational quality control of the background fields in the analysis cycle and for proper representation of strong, small-scale tropical vortices.

Enhancing the Value of Population-Based Risk Scores for Institutional-Level Use.

PubMed

Raza, Sajjad; Sabik, Joseph F; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Idrees, Jay J; Trezzi, Matteo; Riaz, Haris; Javadikasgari, Hoda; Nowicki, Edward R; Svensson, Lars G; Blackstone, Eugene H

2016-07-01

We hypothesized that factors associated with an institution's residual risk unaccounted for by population-based models may be identifiable and used to enhance the value of population-based risk scores for quality improvement. From January 2000 to January 2010, 4,971 patients underwent aortic valve replacement (AVR), either isolated (n = 2,660) or with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (AVR+CABG; n = 2,311). Operative mortality and major morbidity and mortality predicted by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models were compared with observed values. After adjusting for patients' STS score, additional and refined risk factors were sought to explain residual risk. Differences between STS model coefficients (risk-factor strength) and those specific to our institution were calculated. Observed operative mortality was less than predicted for AVR (1.6% [42 of 2,660] vs 2.8%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (2.6% [59 of 2,311] vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001). Observed major morbidity and mortality was also lower than predicted for isolated AVR (14.6% [389 of 2,660] vs 17.5%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (20.0% [462 of 2,311] vs 25.8%, p < 0.0001). Shorter height, higher bilirubin, and lower albumin were identified as additional institution-specific risk factors, and body surface area, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate, blood urea nitrogen, and heart failure across all levels of functional class were identified as refined risk-factor variables associated with residual risk. In many instances, risk-factor strength differed substantially from that of STS models. Scores derived from population-based models can be enhanced for institutional level use by adjusting for institution-specific additional and refined risk factors. Identifying these and measuring differences in institution-specific versus population-based risk-factor strength can identify areas to target for quality improvement initiatives. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mid-infrared spectroscopy predictions as indicator traits in breeding programs for enhanced coagulation properties of milk.

PubMed

Cecchinato, A; De Marchi, M; Gallo, L; Bittante, G; Carnier, P

2009-10-01

The aims of this study were to investigate variation of milk coagulation property (MCP) measures and their predictions obtained by mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIR), to investigate the genetic relationship between measures of MCP and MIR predictions, and to estimate the expected response from a breeding program focusing on the enhancement of MCP using MIR predictions as indicator traits. Individual milk samples were collected from 1,200 Brown Swiss cows (progeny of 50 artificial insemination sires) reared in 30 herds located in northern Italy. Rennet coagulation time (RCT, min) and curd firmness (a(30), mm) were measured using a computerized renneting meter. The MIR data were recorded over the spectral range of 4,000 to 900 cm(-1). Prediction models for RCT and a(30) based on MIR spectra were developed using partial least squares regression. A cross-validation procedure was carried out. The procedure involved the partition of available data into 2 subsets: a calibration subset and a test subset. The calibration subset was used to develop a calibration equation able to predict individual MCP phenotypes using MIR spectra. The test subset was used to validate the calibration equation and to estimate heritabilities and genetic correlations for measured MCP and their predictions obtained from MIR spectra and the calibration equation. Point estimates of heritability ranged from 0.30 to 0.34 and from 0.22 to 0.24 for RCT and a(30), respectively. Heritability estimates for MCP predictions were larger than those obtained for measured MCP. Estimated genetic correlations between measures and predictions of RCT were very high and ranged from 0.91 to 0.96. Estimates of the genetic correlation between measures and predictions of a(30) were large and ranged from 0.71 to 0.87. Predictions of MCP provided by MIR techniques can be proposed as indicator traits for the genetic enhancement of MCP. The expected response of RCT and a(30) ensured by the selection using MIR predictions as indicator traits was equal to or slightly less than the response achievable through a single measurement of these traits. Breeding strategies for the enhancement of MCP based on MIR predictions as indicator traits could be easily and immediately implemented for dairy cattle populations where routine acquisition of spectra from individual milk samples is already performed.

Are Delinquents Different? Predictive Patterns for Low, Mid and High Delinquency Levels in a General Youth Sample via the HEW Youth Development Model's Impact Scales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Truckenmiller, James L.

The Health, Education and Welfare (HEW) Office of Youth Development's National Strategy for Youth Development model was promoted as a community-based planning and procedural tool for enhancing positive youth development and reducing delinquency. To test the applicability of the model as a function of delinquency level, the program's Impact Scales…

Template-based and free modeling of I-TASSER and QUARK pipelines using predicted contact maps in CASP12.

PubMed

Zhang, Chengxin; Mortuza, S M; He, Baoji; Wang, Yanting; Zhang, Yang

2018-03-01

We develop two complementary pipelines, "Zhang-Server" and "QUARK", based on I-TASSER and QUARK pipelines for template-based modeling (TBM) and free modeling (FM), and test them in the CASP12 experiment. The combination of I-TASSER and QUARK successfully folds three medium-size FM targets that have more than 150 residues, even though the interplay between the two pipelines still awaits further optimization. Newly developed sequence-based contact prediction by NeBcon plays a critical role to enhance the quality of models, particularly for FM targets, by the new pipelines. The inclusion of NeBcon predicted contacts as restraints in the QUARK simulations results in an average TM-score of 0.41 for the best in top five predicted models, which is 37% higher than that by the QUARK simulations without contacts. In particular, there are seven targets that are converted from non-foldable to foldable (TM-score >0.5) due to the use of contact restraints in the simulations. Another additional feature in the current pipelines is the local structure quality prediction by ResQ, which provides a robust residue-level modeling error estimation. Despite the success, significant challenges still remain in ab initio modeling of multi-domain proteins and folding of β-proteins with complicated topologies bound by long-range strand-strand interactions. Improvements on domain boundary and long-range contact prediction, as well as optimal use of the predicted contacts and multiple threading alignments, are critical to address these issues seen in the CASP12 experiment. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Biomarkers for predicting type 2 diabetes development-Can metabolomics improve on existing biomarkers?

PubMed

Savolainen, Otto; Fagerberg, Björn; Vendelbo Lind, Mads; Sandberg, Ann-Sofie; Ross, Alastair B; Bergström, Göran

2017-01-01

The aim was to determine if metabolomics could be used to build a predictive model for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk that would improve prediction of T2D over current risk markers. Gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry metabolomics was used in a nested case-control study based on a screening sample of 64-year-old Caucasian women (n = 629). Candidate metabolic markers of T2D were identified in plasma obtained at baseline and the power to predict diabetes was tested in 69 incident cases occurring during 5.5 years follow-up. The metabolomics results were used as a standalone prediction model and in combination with established T2D predictive biomarkers for building eight T2D prediction models that were compared with each other based on their sensitivity and selectivity for predicting T2D. Established markers of T2D (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, insulin resistance (HOMA), smoking, serum adiponectin)) alone, and in combination with metabolomics had the largest areas under the curve (AUC) (0.794 (95% confidence interval [0.738-0.850]) and 0.808 [0.749-0.867] respectively), with the standalone metabolomics model based on nine fasting plasma markers having a lower predictive power (0.657 [0.577-0.736]). Prediction based on non-blood based measures was 0.638 [0.565-0.711]). Established measures of T2D risk remain the best predictor of T2D risk in this population. Additional markers detected using metabolomics are likely related to these measures as they did not enhance the overall prediction in a combined model.

Biomarkers for predicting type 2 diabetes development—Can metabolomics improve on existing biomarkers?

PubMed Central

Savolainen, Otto; Fagerberg, Björn; Vendelbo Lind, Mads; Sandberg, Ann-Sofie; Ross, Alastair B.; Bergström, Göran

2017-01-01

Aim The aim was to determine if metabolomics could be used to build a predictive model for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk that would improve prediction of T2D over current risk markers. Methods Gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry metabolomics was used in a nested case-control study based on a screening sample of 64-year-old Caucasian women (n = 629). Candidate metabolic markers of T2D were identified in plasma obtained at baseline and the power to predict diabetes was tested in 69 incident cases occurring during 5.5 years follow-up. The metabolomics results were used as a standalone prediction model and in combination with established T2D predictive biomarkers for building eight T2D prediction models that were compared with each other based on their sensitivity and selectivity for predicting T2D. Results Established markers of T2D (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, insulin resistance (HOMA), smoking, serum adiponectin)) alone, and in combination with metabolomics had the largest areas under the curve (AUC) (0.794 (95% confidence interval [0.738–0.850]) and 0.808 [0.749–0.867] respectively), with the standalone metabolomics model based on nine fasting plasma markers having a lower predictive power (0.657 [0.577–0.736]). Prediction based on non-blood based measures was 0.638 [0.565–0.711]). Conclusions Established measures of T2D risk remain the best predictor of T2D risk in this population. Additional markers detected using metabolomics are likely related to these measures as they did not enhance the overall prediction in a combined model. PMID:28692646

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.

PubMed

Siriyasatien, Padet; Phumee, Atchara; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Jampachaisri, Katechan; Kesorn, Kraisak

2016-04-16

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak. The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study's selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model's prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention. The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting models, as confirmed by AIC, BIC, and MAPE.

Conceptual modelling to predict unobserved system states - the case of groundwater flooding in the UK Chalk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, A. J.; Ireson, A. M.

2017-12-01

Chalk aquifers represent an important source of drinking water in the UK. Due to its fractured-porous structure, Chalk aquifers are characterized by highly dynamic groundwater fluctuations that enhance the risk of groundwater flooding. The risk of groundwater flooding can be assessed by physically-based groundwater models. But for reliable results, a-priori information about the distribution of hydraulic conductivities and porosities is necessary, which is often not available. For that reason, conceptual simulation models are often used to predict groundwater behaviour. They commonly require calibration by historic groundwater observations. Consequently, their prediction performance may reduce significantly, when it comes to system states that did not occur within the calibration time series. In this study, we calibrate a conceptual model to the observed groundwater level observations at several locations within a Chalk system in Southern England. During the calibration period, no groundwater flooding occurred. We then apply our model to predict the groundwater dynamics of the system at a time that includes a groundwater flooding event. We show that the calibrated model provides reasonable predictions before and after the flooding event but it over-estimates groundwater levels during the event. After modifying the model structure to include topographic information, the model is capable of prediction the groundwater flooding event even though groundwater flooding never occurred in the calibration period. Although straight forward, our approach shows how conceptual process-based models can be applied to predict system states and dynamics that did not occur in the calibration period. We believe such an approach can be transferred to similar cases, especially to regions where rainfall intensities are expected to trigger processes and system states that may have not yet been observed.

Technosocial Predictive Analytics in Support of Naturalistic Decision Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Cowell, Andrew J.; Malone, Elizabeth L.

2009-06-23

A main challenge we face in fostering sustainable growth is to anticipate outcomes through predictive and proactive across domains as diverse as energy, security, the environment, health and finance in order to maximize opportunities, influence outcomes and counter adversities. The goal of this paper is to present new methods for anticipatory analytical thinking which address this challenge through the development of a multi-perspective approach to predictive modeling as a core to a creative decision making process. This approach is uniquely multidisciplinary in that it strives to create decision advantage through the integration of human and physical models, and leverages knowledgemore » management and visual analytics to support creative thinking by facilitating the achievement of interoperable knowledge inputs and enhancing the user’s cognitive access. We describe a prototype system which implements this approach and exemplify its functionality with reference to a use case in which predictive modeling is paired with analytic gaming to support collaborative decision-making in the domain of agricultural land management.« less

Statistical prediction with Kanerva's sparse distributed memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, David

1989-01-01

A new viewpoint of the processing performed by Kanerva's sparse distributed memory (SDM) is presented. In conditions of near- or over-capacity, where the associative-memory behavior of the model breaks down, the processing performed by the model can be interpreted as that of a statistical predictor. Mathematical results are presented which serve as the framework for a new statistical viewpoint of sparse distributed memory and for which the standard formulation of SDM is a special case. This viewpoint suggests possible enhancements to the SDM model, including a procedure for improving the predictiveness of the system based on Holland's work with genetic algorithms, and a method for improving the capacity of SDM even when used as an associative memory.

Predicted consequences of diabetes and SGLT inhibition on transport and oxygen consumption along a rat nephron

PubMed Central

Vallon, Volker; Edwards, Aurélie

2016-01-01

Diabetes increases the reabsorption of Na+ (TNa) and glucose via the sodium-glucose cotransporter SGLT2 in the early proximal tubule (S1-S2 segments) of the renal cortex. SGLT2 inhibitors enhance glucose excretion and lower hyperglycemia in diabetes. We aimed to investigate how diabetes and SGLT2 inhibition affect TNa and sodium transport-dependent oxygen consumption QO2active along the whole nephron. To do so, we developed a mathematical model of water and solute transport from the Bowman space to the papillary tip of a superficial nephron of the rat kidney. Model simulations indicate that, in the nondiabetic kidney, acute and chronic SGLT2 inhibition enhances active TNa in all nephron segments, thereby raising QO2active by 5–12% in the cortex and medulla. Diabetes increases overall TNa and QO2active by ∼50 and 100%, mainly because it enhances glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and transport load. In diabetes, acute and chronic SGLT2 inhibition lowers QO2active in the cortex by ∼30%, due to GFR reduction that lowers proximal tubule active TNa, but raises QO2active in the medulla by ∼7%. In the medulla specifically, chronic SGLT2 inhibition is predicted to increase QO2active by 26% in late proximal tubules (S3 segments), by 2% in medullary thick ascending limbs (mTAL), and by 9 and 21% in outer and inner medullary collecting ducts (OMCD and IMCD), respectively. Additional blockade of SGLT1 in S3 segments enhances glucose excretion, reduces QO2active by 33% in S3 segments, and raises QO2active by <1% in mTAL, OMCD, and IMCD. In summary, the model predicts that SGLT2 blockade in diabetes lowers cortical QO2active and raises medullary QO2active, particularly in S3 segments. PMID:26764207

Neural Conflict–Control Mechanisms Improve Memory for Target Stimuli

PubMed Central

Krebs, Ruth M.; Boehler, Carsten N.; De Belder, Maya; Egner, Tobias

2015-01-01

According to conflict-monitoring models, conflict serves as an internal signal for reinforcing top-down attention to task-relevant information. While evidence based on measures of ongoing task performance supports this idea, implications for long-term consequences, that is, memory, have not been tested yet. Here, we evaluated the prediction that conflict-triggered attentional enhancement of target-stimulus processing should be associated with superior subsequent memory for those stimuli. By combining functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a novel variant of a face-word Stroop task that employed trial-unique face stimuli as targets, we were able to assess subsequent (incidental) memory for target faces as a function of whether a given face had previously been accompanied by congruent, neutral, or incongruent (conflicting) distracters. In line with our predictions, incongruent distracters not only induced behavioral conflict, but also gave rise to enhanced memory for target faces. Moreover, conflict-triggered neural activity in prefrontal and parietal regions was predictive of subsequent retrieval success, and displayed conflict-enhanced functional coupling with medial-temporal lobe regions. These data provide support for the proposal that conflict evokes enhanced top-down attention to task-relevant stimuli, thereby promoting their encoding into long-term memory. Our findings thus delineate the neural mechanisms of a novel link between cognitive control and memory. PMID:24108799

A Complete Procedure for Predicting and Improving the Performance of HAWT's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Abadi, Ali; Ertunç, Özgür; Sittig, Florian; Delgado, Antonio

2014-06-01

A complete procedure for predicting and improving the performance of the horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) has been developed. The first process is predicting the power extracted by the turbine and the derived rotor torque, which should be identical to that of the drive unit. The BEM method and a developed post-stall treatment for resolving stall-regulated HAWT is incorporated in the prediction. For that, a modified stall-regulated prediction model, which can predict the HAWT performance over the operating range of oncoming wind velocity, is derived from existing models. The model involves radius and chord, which has made it more general in applications for predicting the performance of different scales and rotor shapes of HAWTs. The second process is modifying the rotor shape by an optimization process, which can be applied to any existing HAWT, to improve its performance. A gradient- based optimization is used for adjusting the chord and twist angle distribution of the rotor blade to increase the extraction of the power while keeping the drive torque constant, thus the same drive unit can be kept. The final process is testing the modified turbine to predict its enhanced performance. The procedure is applied to NREL phase-VI 10kW as a baseline turbine. The study has proven the applicability of the developed model in predicting the performance of the baseline as well as the optimized turbine. In addition, the optimization method has shown that the power coefficient can be increased while keeping same design rotational speed.

Shear wave prediction using committee fuzzy model constrained by lithofacies, Zagros basin, SW Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiroodi, Sadjad Kazem; Ghafoori, Mohammad; Ansari, Hamid Reza; Lashkaripour, Golamreza; Ghanadian, Mostafa

2017-02-01

The main purpose of this study is to introduce the geological controlling factors in improving an intelligence-based model to estimate shear wave velocity from seismic attributes. The proposed method includes three main steps in the framework of geological events in a complex sedimentary succession located in the Persian Gulf. First, the best attributes were selected from extracted seismic data. Second, these attributes were transformed into shear wave velocity using fuzzy inference systems (FIS) such as Sugeno's fuzzy inference (SFIS), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference (ANFIS) and optimized fuzzy inference (OFIS). Finally, a committee fuzzy machine (CFM) based on bat-inspired algorithm (BA) optimization was applied to combine previous predictions into an enhanced solution. In order to show the geological effect on improving the prediction, the main classes of predominate lithofacies in the reservoir of interest including shale, sand, and carbonate were selected and then the proposed algorithm was performed with and without lithofacies constraint. The results showed a good agreement between real and predicted shear wave velocity in the lithofacies-based model compared to the model without lithofacies especially in sand and carbonate.

Prediction of hourly PM2.5 using a space-time support vector regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wentao; Deng, Min; Xu, Feng; Wang, Hang

2018-05-01

Real-time air quality prediction has been an active field of research in atmospheric environmental science. The existing methods of machine learning are widely used to predict pollutant concentrations because of their enhanced ability to handle complex non-linear relationships. However, because pollutant concentration data, as typical geospatial data, also exhibit spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence, they may violate the assumptions of independent and identically distributed random variables in most of the machine learning methods. As a result, a space-time support vector regression model is proposed to predict hourly PM2.5 concentrations. First, to address spatial heterogeneity, spatial clustering is executed to divide the study area into several homogeneous or quasi-homogeneous subareas. To handle spatial dependence, a Gauss vector weight function is then developed to determine spatial autocorrelation variables as part of the input features. Finally, a local support vector regression model with spatial autocorrelation variables is established for each subarea. Experimental data on PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing are used to verify whether the results of the proposed model are superior to those of other methods.

Field-scale Prediction of Enhanced DNAPL Dissolution Using Partitioning Tracers and Flow Pattern Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Annable, M. D.; Jawitz, J. W.

2012-12-01

The equilibrium streamtube model (EST) has demonstrated the ability to accurately predict dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) dissolution in laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. Here the model is applied to predict DNAPL dissolution at a PCE-contaminated dry cleaner site, located in Jacksonville, Florida. The EST is an analytical solution with field-measurable input parameters. Here, measured data from a field-scale partitioning tracer test were used to parameterize the EST model and the predicted PCE dissolution was compared to measured data from an in-situ alcohol (ethanol) flood. In addition, a simulated partitioning tracer test from a calibrated spatially explicit multiphase flow model (UTCHEM) was also used to parameterize the EST analytical solution. The ethanol prediction based on both the field partitioning tracer test and the UTCHEM tracer test simulation closely matched the field data. The PCE EST prediction showed a peak shift to an earlier arrival time that was concluded to be caused by well screen interval differences between the field tracer test and alcohol flood. This observation was based on a modeling assessment of potential factors that may influence predictions by using UTCHEM simulations. The imposed injection and pumping flow pattern at this site for both the partitioning tracer test and alcohol flood was more complex than the natural gradient flow pattern (NGFP). Both the EST model and UTCHEM were also used to predict PCE dissolution under natural gradient conditions, with much simpler flow patterns than the forced-gradient double five spot of the alcohol flood. The NGFP predictions based on parameters determined from tracer tests conducted with complex flow patterns underestimated PCE concentrations and total mass removal. This suggests that the flow patterns influence aqueous dissolution and that the aqueous dissolution under the NGFP is more efficient than dissolution under complex flow patterns.

Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the San Francisco Bay-Delta using a GA- Optimized Neural Net, and Application of the Model to Prediction in the Elkhorn Slough Habitat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, David E.; Rajkumar, T.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The San Francisco Bay Delta is a large hydrodynamic complex that incorporates the Sacramento and San Joaquin Estuaries, the Burman Marsh, and the San Francisco Bay proper. Competition exists for the use of this extensive water system both from the fisheries industry, the agricultural industry, and from the marine and estuarine animal species within the Delta. As tidal fluctuations occur, more saline water pushes upstream allowing fish to migrate beyond the Burman Marsh for breeding and habitat occupation. However, the agriculture industry does not want extensive salinity intrusion to impact water quality for human and plant consumption. The balance is regulated by pumping stations located alone the estuaries and reservoirs whereby flushing of fresh water keeps the saline intrusion at bay. The pumping schedule is driven by data collected at various locations within the Bay Delta and by numerical models that predict the salinity intrusion as part of a larger model of the system. The Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary collects, monitors, and archives the data, and the Department of Water Resources provides a numerical model simulation (DSM2) from which predictions are made that drive the pumping schedule. A problem with this procedure is that the numerical simulation takes roughly 16 hours to complete a C: prediction. We have created a neural net, optimized with a genetic algorithm, that takes as input the archived data from multiple stations and predicts stage, salinity, and flow at the Carquinez Straits (at the downstream end of the Burman Marsh). This model seems to be robust in its predictions and operates much faster than the current numerical DSM2 model. Because the system is strongly tidal driven, we used both Principal Component Analysis and Fast Fourier Transforms to discover dominant features within the IEP data. We then filtered out the dominant tidal forcing to discover non-primary tidal effects, and used this to enhance the neural network by mapping input-output relationships in a more efficient manner. Furthermore, the neural network implicitly incorporates both the hydrodynamic and water quality models into a single predictive system. Although our model has not yet been enhanced to demonstrate improve pumping schedules, it has the possibility to support better decision-making procedures that may then be implemented by State agencies if desired. Our intention is now to use this model in the smaller Elkhorn Slough complex near Monterey Bay where no such hydrodynamic model currently exists. At the Elkhorn Slough, we are fusing the neural net model of tidally-driven flow with in situ flow data and airborne and satellite remote sensation data. These further constrain the behavior of the model in predicting the longer-term health and future of this vital estuary.

Extracting the normal lung dose-response curve from clinical DVH data: a possible role for low dose hyper-radiosensitivity, increased radioresistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, J. J.; Snyder, K.; Zhong, H.; Barton, K.; Sun, Z.; Chetty, I. J.; Matuszak, M.; Ten Haken, R. K.

2015-09-01

In conventionally fractionated radiation therapy for lung cancer, radiation pneumonitis’ (RP) dependence on the normal lung dose-volume histogram (DVH) is not well understood. Complication models alternatively make RP a function of a summary statistic, such as mean lung dose (MLD). This work searches over damage profiles, which quantify sub-volume damage as a function of dose. Profiles that achieve best RP predictive accuracy on a clinical dataset are hypothesized to approximate DVH dependence. Step function damage rate profiles R(D) are generated, having discrete steps at several dose points. A range of profiles is sampled by varying the step heights and dose point locations. Normal lung damage is the integral of R(D) with the cumulative DVH. Each profile is used in conjunction with a damage cutoff to predict grade 2 plus (G2+) RP for DVHs from a University of Michigan clinical trial dataset consisting of 89 CFRT patients, of which 17 were diagnosed with G2+ RP. Optimal profiles achieve a modest increase in predictive accuracy—erroneous RP predictions are reduced from 11 (using MLD) to 8. A novel result is that optimal profiles have a similar distinctive shape: enhanced damage contribution from low doses (<20 Gy), a flat contribution from doses in the range ~20-40 Gy, then a further enhanced contribution from doses above 40 Gy. These features resemble the hyper-radiosensitivity / increased radioresistance (HRS/IRR) observed in some cell survival curves, which can be modeled using Joiner’s induced repair model. A novel search strategy is employed, which has the potential to estimate RP dependence on the normal lung DVH. When applied to a clinical dataset, identified profiles share a characteristic shape, which resembles HRS/IRR. This suggests that normal lung may have enhanced sensitivity to low doses, and that this sensitivity can affect RP risk.

Transforming National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Water Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graziano, T. M.; Clark, E. P.

2016-12-01

As a significant step forward to transform NOAA's water prediction services, NOAA plans to implement a new National Water Model (NWM) Version 1.0 in August 2016. A continental scale water resources model, the NWM is an evolution of the WRF-Hydro architecture developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It represents NOAA's first foray into high performance computing for water prediction and will expand NOAA's current water quantity forecasts, at approximately 4000 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gage sites across the country, to forecasts of flow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, snow water equivalent and other parameters for 2.7 million stream reaches nationwide. This new guidance will be provided to NOAA's River Forecast Centers around the country and other field offices, along with guidance for evaluation and validation, and tools to visualize these data and enhance decision support. Initially, a subset if these data will be available via NOAA's Office of Water Prediction web site and the full output of the NWM simulations will be available via the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). These enhancements in turn will improve NWS' ability to deliver impact-based decision support services nationwide through the provision of short through extended range, high fidelity "street level" water forecasts and warnings. Subsequent planned out-year enhancements to the NWM include the expanded assimilation of anthropogenic data, an operational nest to provide higher resolution forecasts needed for inundation mapping, and tackling the deeper challenges associated with drought and other water resources issues. The NWM is a NOAA-led interagency effort that relies on the National Hydrographic Dataset of the USGS and EPA, as well as the National Streamflow Information Program of the USGS. Its development continues to be advanced in partnership with NCAR, and a partnership with the Consortium for the Advancement of Hydrologic Sciences, Inc. (CUASHI) and the National Science Foundation. This presentation will highlight the policy, programmatic, and service transformation of NOAA's water resources mission with the NWM.

Radon emissions from natural gas power plants at The Pennsylvania State University.

PubMed

Stidworthy, Alison G; Davis, Kenneth J; Leavey, Jeff

2016-11-01

Burning natural gas in power plants may emit radon ( 222 Rn) into the atmosphere. On the University Park campus of The Pennsylvania State University, atmospheric radon enhancements were measured and modeled in the vicinity of their two power plants. The three-part study first involved measuring ambient outdoor radon concentrations from August 2014 through January 2015 at four sites upwind and downwind of the power plants at distances ranging from 80 m to 310 m. For each plant, one site served as a background site, while three other sites measured radon concentration enhancements downwind. Second, the radon content of natural gas flowing into the power plant was measured, and third, a plume dispersion model was used to predict the radon concentrations downwind of the power plants. These predictions are compared to the measured downwind enhancements in radon to determine whether the observed radon concentration enhancements could be attributed to the power plants' emissions. Atmospheric radon concentrations were consistently low as compared to the EPA action level of 148 Bq m -3 , averaging 34.5 ± 2.7 Bq m -3 around the East Campus Steam Plant (ECSP) and 31.6 ± 2.7 Bq m -3 around the West Campus Steam Plant (WCSP). Significant concentrations of radon, ranging from 516 to 1,240 Bq m -3 , were detected in the natural gas. The measured enhancements downwind of the ECSP averaged 6.2 Bq m -3 compared to modeled enhancements of 0.08 Bq m -3 . Measured enhancements around the WCSP averaged -0.2 Bq m -3 compared to the modeled enhancements of 0.05 Bq m -3 , which were not significant compared to observational error. The comparison of the measured to modeled downwind radon enhancements shows no correlation over time. The measurements of radon levels in the vicinity of the power plants appear to be unaffected by the emissions from the power plants. Radon measurements at sites surrounding power plants that utilize natural gas did not indicate that the radon concentrations originated from the plants' emissions. There were elevated radon concentrations in the natural gas supply flowing into the power plants, but combustion dilution puts the concentration below EPA action levels coming out of the stack, so no hazardous levels were expected downwind. Power plant combustion of natural gas is not likely to pose a radiation health hazard unless very different gas radon concentrations or combustion dilution ratios are encountered.

Can cognitive psychological research on reasoning enhance the discussion around moral judgments?

PubMed

Bialek, Michal; Terbeck, Sylvia

2016-08-01

In this article we will demonstrate how cognitive psychological research on reasoning and decision making could enhance discussions and theories of moral judgments. In the first part, we will present recent dual-process models of moral judgments and describe selected studies which support these approaches. However, we will also present data that contradict the model predictions, suggesting that approaches to moral judgment might be more complex. In the second part, we will show how cognitive psychological research on reasoning might be helpful in understanding moral judgments. Specifically, we will highlight approaches addressing the interaction between intuition and reflection. Our data suggest that a sequential model of engaging in deliberation might have to be revised. Therefore, we will present an approach based on Signal Detection Theory and on intuitive conflict detection. We predict that individuals arrive at the moral decisions by comparing potential action outcomes (e.g., harm caused and utilitarian gain) simultaneously. The response criterion can be influenced by intuitive processes, such as heuristic moral value processing, or considerations of harm caused.

Modeling the dynamic volatile fatty acids profiles with pH and hydraulic retention time in an anaerobic baffled reactor during the startup period.

PubMed

Shi, En; Li, Jianzheng; Leu, Shao-Yuan; Antwi, Philip

2016-12-01

To predict the dynamic profiles in volatile fatty acids (VFAs) with pH and hydraulic retention time (HRT) during the startup of a 4-compartment ABR, a mathematical model was constructed by introducing pH and thermodynamic inhibition functions into the biochemical processes derived from the ADM1. The calibration of inhibition parameter for propionate uptake effectively improved the prediction accuracy of VFAs. The developed model could simulate the VFAs profiles very well no matter the observable change of pH or/and HRT. The simulation results indicated that both H 2 -producing acetogenesis and methanogenesis in the ABR would be inhibited with a pH less than 4.61, and the propionate oxidation could be thermodynamically restricted even with a neutral pH. A decreased HRT would enhanced the acidogenesis and H 2 -producing acetogenesis in the first 3 compartments, but no observable increase in effluent VFAs could be found due to the synchronously enhanced methanogenesis in the last compartment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer-aided diagnosis of prostate cancer using a deep convolutional neural network from multiparametric MRI.

PubMed

Song, Yang; Zhang, Yu-Dong; Yan, Xu; Liu, Hui; Zhou, Minxiong; Hu, Bingwen; Yang, Guang

2018-04-16

Deep learning is the most promising methodology for automatic computer-aided diagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) with multiparametric MRI (mp-MRI). To develop an automatic approach based on deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) to classify PCa and noncancerous tissues (NC) with mp-MRI. Retrospective. In all, 195 patients with localized PCa were collected from a PROSTATEx database. In total, 159/17/19 patients with 444/48/55 observations (215/23/23 PCas and 229/25/32 NCs) were randomly selected for training/validation/testing, respectively. T 2 -weighted, diffusion-weighted, and apparent diffusion coefficient images. A radiologist manually labeled the regions of interest of PCas and NCs and estimated the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) scores for each region. Inspired by VGG-Net, we designed a patch-based DCNN model to distinguish between PCa and NCs based on a combination of mp-MRI data. Additionally, an enhanced prediction method was used to improve the prediction accuracy. The performance of DCNN prediction was tested using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Moreover, the predicted result was compared with the PI-RADS score to evaluate its clinical value using decision curve analysis. Two-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank test with statistical significance set at 0.05. The DCNN produced excellent diagnostic performance in distinguishing between PCa and NC for testing datasets with an AUC of 0.944 (95% confidence interval: 0.876-0.994), sensitivity of 87.0%, specificity of 90.6%, PPV of 87.0%, and NPV of 90.6%. The decision curve analysis revealed that the joint model of PI-RADS and DCNN provided additional net benefits compared with the DCNN model and the PI-RADS scheme. The proposed DCNN-based model with enhanced prediction yielded high performance in statistical analysis, suggesting that DCNN could be used in computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) for PCa classification. 3 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2018. © 2018 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Predicting locations of rare aquatic species’ habitat with a combination of species-specific and assemblage-based models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.; Carlson, Douglas M.; Payne-Wynne, Molly L.

2013-01-01

Aim: Rare aquatic species are a substantial component of biodiversity, and their conservation is a major objective of many management plans. However, they are difficult to assess, and their optimal habitats are often poorly known. Methods to effectively predict the likely locations of suitable rare aquatic species habitats are needed. We combine two modelling approaches to predict occurrence and general abundance of several rare fish species. Location: Allegheny watershed of western New York State (USA) Methods: Our method used two empirical neural network modelling approaches (species specific and assemblage based) to predict stream-by-stream occurrence and general abundance of rare darters, based on broad-scale habitat conditions. Species-specific models were developed for longhead darter (Percina macrocephala), spotted darter (Etheostoma maculatum) and variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) in the Allegheny drainage. An additional model predicted the type of rare darter-containing assemblage expected in each stream reach. Predictions from both models were then combined inclusively and exclusively and compared with additional independent data. Results Example rare darter predictions demonstrate the method's effectiveness. Models performed well (R2 ≥ 0.79), identified where suitable darter habitat was most likely to occur, and predictions matched well to those of collection sites. Additional independent data showed that the most conservative (exclusive) model slightly underestimated the distributions of these rare darters or predictions were displaced by one stream reach, suggesting that new darter habitat types were detected in the later collections. Main conclusions Broad-scale habitat variables can be used to effectively identify rare species' habitats. Combining species-specific and assemblage-based models enhances our ability to make use of the sparse data on rare species and to identify habitat units most likely and least likely to support those species. This hybrid approach may assist managers with the prioritization of habitats to be examined or conserved for rare species.

Semi-Empirical, First-Principles, and Hybrid Modeling of the Thermosphere to Enhance Data Assimilation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-27

CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 61102F 6. AUTHOR(S) Eric K. Sutton 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 3001 5e. TASK NUMBER PPM00018035...principal components, hybrid model, helium model, neutral composition, low-Earth orbit 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18...difficult force to determine and predict, in the orbit propagation model of low earth orbiting satellites [36]. The drag acceleration vector, ~a

MODIS imagery improves pest risk assessment: A case study of wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus, Hymenoptera: Cephidae) in Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lestina, Jordan; Cook, Maxwell; Kumar, Sunil; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Ode, Paul J.; Peirs, Frank

2016-01-01

Wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus Norton, Hymenoptera: Cephidae) has long been a significant insect pest of spring, and more recently, winter wheat in the northern Great Plains. Wheat stem sawfly was first observed infesting winter wheat in Colorado in 2010 and, subsequently, has spread rapidly throughout wheat production regions of the state. Here, we used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to generate habitat suitability maps in order to predict the risk of crop damage as this species spreads throughout the winter wheat-growing regions of Colorado. We identified environmental variables that influence the current distribution of wheat stem sawfly in the state and evaluated whether remotely sensed variables improved model performance. We used presence localities of C. cinctus and climatic, topographic, soils, and normalized difference vegetation index and enhanced vegetation index data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery as environmental variables. All models had high performance in that they were successful in predicting suitable habitat for C. cinctus in its current distribution in eastern Colorado. The enhanced vegetation index for the month of April improved model performance and was identified as a top contributor to MaxEnt model. Soil clay percent at 0–5 cm, temperature seasonality, and precipitation seasonality were also associated with C. cinctus distribution in Colorado. The improved model performance resulting from integrating vegetation indices in our study demonstrates the ability of remote sensing technologies to enhance species distribution modeling. These risk maps generated can assist managers in planning control measures for current infestations and assess the future risk of C. cinctus establishment in currently uninfested regions.

Evaluation of Open Cell Foam Heat Transfer Enhancement for Liquid Rocket Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, J. N.; Tully, Landon; Kim, Jung Hwan; Jones, Gregg W.; Watkins, William

2006-01-01

As NASA pursues the exploration mission, advanced propulsion for the next generation of spacecraft will be needed. These new propulsion systems will require higher performance and increased durability, despite current limitations on materials. A break-through technology is needed in the thrust chamber. In this paper the idea of using a porous metallic foam is examined for its potential cooling enhancement capabilities. The goal is to increase the chamber wall cooling without creating an additional pressure drop penalty. A feasibility study based on experiments at laboratory-scale conditions was performed and analysis at rocket conditions is underway. In the experiment, heat transfer and pressure drop data were collected using air as the coolant in a copper or nickel foam filled annular channel. The foam-channel performance was evaluated based on comparison with conventional microchannel cooling passages under equal pressure drop conditions. The heat transfer enhancement of the foam channel over the microchannel ranges from 130% to 172%. The enhancement is relatively independent of the pressure drop and increases with decreasing pore size. A direct numerical simulation model of the foam heat exchange has been built. The model is based on the actual metal foam microstructure of thin ligaments (0.2- 0.3 mm in diameter) that form a network of interconnected open-cells. The cell dimension is around 2 mm. The numerical model was built using the FLUENT CFD code. Comparison of the pressure drop results predicted by the current model with those experimental data of Leong and Jin [8] shows favorable comparisons. Pressure drop predictions have been made using hydrogen as a coolant at typical rocket conditions. Conjugate heat transfer analysis using the foam filled channel is planned for the future.

Predicting Vandalism in a General Youth Sample via the HEW Youth Development Model's Community Program Impact Scales, Age, and Sex.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Truckenmiller, James L.

The former HEW National Strategy for Youth Development model was a community-based planning and procedural tool to enhance and to prevent delinquency through a process of youth needs assessments, needs targeted programs, and program impact evaluation. The program's 12 Impact Scales have been found to have acceptable reliabilities, substantial…

Topographic models for predicting malaria vector breeding habitats: potential tools for vector control managers.

PubMed

Nmor, Jephtha C; Sunahara, Toshihiko; Goto, Kensuke; Futami, Kyoko; Sonye, George; Akweywa, Peter; Dida, Gabriel; Minakawa, Noboru

2013-01-16

Identification of malaria vector breeding sites can enhance control activities. Although associations between malaria vector breeding sites and topography are well recognized, practical models that predict breeding sites from topographic information are lacking. We used topographic variables derived from remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to model the breeding sites of malaria vectors. We further compared the predictive strength of two different DEMs and evaluated the predictability of various habitat types inhabited by Anopheles larvae. Using GIS techniques, topographic variables were extracted from two DEMs: 1) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission 3 (SRTM3, 90-m resolution) and 2) the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer Global DEM (ASTER, 30-m resolution). We used data on breeding sites from an extensive field survey conducted on an island in western Kenya in 2006. Topographic variables were extracted for 826 breeding sites and for 4520 negative points that were randomly assigned. Logistic regression modelling was applied to characterize topographic features of the malaria vector breeding sites and predict their locations. Model accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). All topographic variables derived from both DEMs were significantly correlated with breeding habitats except for the aspect of SRTM. The magnitude and direction of correlation for each variable were similar in the two DEMs. Multivariate models for SRTM and ASTER showed similar levels of fit indicated by Akaike information criterion (3959.3 and 3972.7, respectively), though the former was slightly better than the latter. The accuracy of prediction indicated by AUC was also similar in SRTM (0.758) and ASTER (0.755) in the training site. In the testing site, both SRTM and ASTER models showed higher AUC in the testing sites than in the training site (0.829 and 0.799, respectively). The predictability of habitat types varied. Drains, foot-prints, puddles and swamp habitat types were most predictable. Both SRTM and ASTER models had similar predictive potentials, which were sufficiently accurate to predict vector habitats. The free availability of these DEMs suggests that topographic predictive models could be widely used by vector control managers in Africa to complement malaria control strategies.

An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture-data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Luca; Pulvirenti, Luca; Boni, Giorgio; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Gabellani, Simone; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Pierdicca, Nazzareno

2017-11-01

The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture-data assimilation, SM-DA) into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM-DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer - ASCAT), characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1) mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM) at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM-DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum) that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014-February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i) revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM-DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii) suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii) highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM-DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be supported by further research activities, we believe this research is timely in order to enhance our understanding of the potential contribution of the S1 data within the SM-DA framework for flash flood risk mitigation.

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO2 and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.; Chou, Ming-Dah

1993-01-01

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

Global Crop Yields, Climatic Trends and Technology Enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.; Kogan, F.

2016-12-01

During the last decades the global agricultural production has soared up and technology enhancement is still making positive contribution to yield growth. However, continuing population, water crisis, deforestation and climate change threaten the global food security. Attempts to predict food availability in the future around the world can be partly understood from the impact of changes to date. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country scale using climate covariates and technology trend is presented in this paper. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling and/or clustering to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Geopotential height (GPH), historical CO2 level and time-trend as a relatively reliable approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2007. Results show that these indicators can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications.

Using Patient Demographics and Statistical Modeling to Predict Knee Tibia Component Sizing in Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Ren, Anna N; Neher, Robert E; Bell, Tyler; Grimm, James

2018-06-01

Preoperative planning is important to achieve successful implantation in primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, traditional TKA templating techniques are not accurate enough to predict the component size to a very close range. With the goal of developing a general predictive statistical model using patient demographic information, ordinal logistic regression was applied to build a proportional odds model to predict the tibia component size. The study retrospectively collected the data of 1992 primary Persona Knee System TKA procedures. Of them, 199 procedures were randomly selected as testing data and the rest of the data were randomly partitioned between model training data and model evaluation data with a ratio of 7:3. Different models were trained and evaluated on the training and validation data sets after data exploration. The final model had patient gender, age, weight, and height as independent variables and predicted the tibia size within 1 size difference 96% of the time on the validation data, 94% of the time on the testing data, and 92% on a prospective cadaver data set. The study results indicated the statistical model built by ordinal logistic regression can increase the accuracy of tibia sizing information for Persona Knee preoperative templating. This research shows statistical modeling may be used with radiographs to dramatically enhance the templating accuracy, efficiency, and quality. In general, this methodology can be applied to other TKA products when the data are applicable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deformable image registration as a tool to improve survival prediction after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer: results from the ACRIN 6657/I-SPY-1 trial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahani, Nariman; Cohen, Eric; Hsieh, Meng-Kang; Weinstein, Susan P.; Pantalone, Lauren; Davatzikos, Christos; Kontos, Despina

2018-02-01

We examined the ability of DCE-MRI longitudinal features to give early prediction of recurrence-free survival (RFS) in women undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer, in a retrospective analysis of 106 women from the ISPY 1 cohort. These features were based on the voxel-wise changes seen in registered images taken before treatment and after the first round of chemotherapy. We computed the transformation field using a robust deformable image registration technique to match breast images from these two visits. Using the deformation field, parametric response maps (PRM) — a voxel-based feature analysis of longitudinal changes in images between visits — was computed for maps of four kinetic features (signal enhancement ratio, peak enhancement, and wash-in/wash-out slopes). A two-level discrete wavelet transform was applied to these PRMs to extract heterogeneity information about tumor change between visits. To estimate survival, a Cox proportional hazard model was applied with the C statistic as the measure of success in predicting RFS. The best PRM feature (as determined by C statistic in univariable analysis) was determined for each of the four kinetic features. The baseline model, incorporating functional tumor volume, age, race, and hormone response status, had a C statistic of 0.70 in predicting RFS. The model augmented with the four PRM features had a C statistic of 0.76. Thus, our results suggest that adding information on the texture of voxel-level changes in tumor kinetic response between registered images of first and second visits could improve early RFS prediction in breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Li, Tao; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Baker, Jeffrey; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fugice, Job; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Lafarge, Tanguy; Marcaida Iii, Manuel; Masutomi, Yuji; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruget, Françoise; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wakatsuki, Hitomi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Yulong; Wilson, Lloyd Ted; Yang, Lianxin; Yang, Yubin; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Zhu, Jianguo

2017-11-01

The CO 2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO 2 ] (E-[CO 2 ]) by comparison to free-air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO 2 ] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO 2 ] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO 2 ] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO 2 ] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO 2 ] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.

Did Irving Langmuir Observe Langmuir Circulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Asaro, E. A.; Harcourt, R. R.; Shcherbina, A.; Thomson, J. M.; Fox-Kemper, B.

2012-12-01

Although surface waves are known to play an important role in mixing the upper ocean, the current generation of upper ocean boundary layer parameterizations does not include the explicit effects of surface waves. Detailed simulations using LES models which include the Craik-Leibovich wave-current interactions, now provide quantitative predictions of the enhancement of boundary layer mixing by waves. Here, using parallel experiments in Lake Washington and at Ocean Station Papa, we show a clear enhancement of vertical kinetic energy across the entire upper ocean boundary layer which can be attributed to surface wave effects. The magnitude of this effect is close to that predicted by LES models, but is not large, less than a factor of 2 on average, and increased by large Stokes drift and shallow mixed layers. Global estimates show the largest wave enhancements occur on the equatorial side of the westerlies in late Spring, due to the combination of large waves, shallow mixed layers and weak winds. In Lakes, however, the waves and the Craik-Leibovich interactions are weak, making it likely that the counter-rotating vortices famously observed by Irving Langmuir in Lake George were not driven by wave-current interactions.

Fusing enhanced radar precipitation, in-situ hydrometeorological measurements and airborne LIDAR snowpack estimates in a hyper-resolution hydrologic model to improve seasonal water supply forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, D. J.; Busto, J.; Howard, K.; Mickey, J.; Deems, J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Richardson, M.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; Tang, L.

2015-12-01

Scarcity of spatially- and temporally-continuous observations of precipitation and snowpack conditions in remote mountain watersheds results in fundamental limitations in water supply forecasting. These limitationsin observational capabilities can result in strong biases in total snowmelt-driven runoff amount, the elevational distribution of runoff, river basin tributary contributions to total basin runoff and, equally important for water management, the timing of runoff. The Upper Rio Grande River basin in Colorado and New Mexico is one basin where observational deficiencies are hypothesized to have significant adverse impacts on estimates of snowpack melt-out rates and on water supply forecasts. We present findings from a coordinated observational-modeling study within Upper Rio Grande River basin whose aim was to quanitfy the impact enhanced precipitation, meteorological and snowpack measurements on the simulation and prediction of snowmelt driven streamflow. The Rio Grande SNOwpack and streamFLOW (RIO-SNO-FLOW) Prediction Project conducted enhanced observing activities during the 2014-2015 water year. Measurements from a gap-filling, polarimetric radar (NOXP) and in-situ meteorological and snowpack measurement stations were assimilated into the WRF-Hydro modeling framework to provide continuous analyses of snowpack and streamflow conditions. Airborne lidar estimates of snowpack conditions from the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory during mid-April and mid-May were used as additional independent validations against the various model simulations and forecasts of snowpack conditions during the melt-out season. Uncalibrated WRF-Hydro model performance from simulations and forecasts driven by enhanced observational analyses were compared against results driven by currently operational data inputs. Precipitation estimates from the NOXP research radar validate significantly better against independent in situ observations of precipitation and snow-pack increases. Correcting the operational NLDAS2 forcing data with the experimental observations led to significant improvements in the seasonal accumulation and ablation of mountain snowpack and ultimately led to marked improvement in model simulated streamflow as compared with streamflow observations.

Efficient Band-to-Trap Tunneling Model Including Heterojunction Band Offset

DOE PAGES

Gao, Xujiao; Huang, Andy; Kerr, Bert

2017-10-25

In this paper, we present an efficient band-to-trap tunneling model based on the Schenk approach, in which an analytic density-of-states (DOS) model is developed based on the open boundary scattering method. The new model explicitly includes the effect of heterojunction band offset, in addition to the well-known field effect. Its analytic form enables straightforward implementation into TCAD device simulators. It is applicable to all one-dimensional potentials, which can be approximated to a good degree such that the approximated potentials lead to piecewise analytic wave functions with open boundary conditions. The model allows for simulating both the electric-field-enhanced and band-offset-enhanced carriermore » recombination due to the band-to-trap tunneling near the heterojunction in a heterojunction bipolar transistor (HBT). Simulation results of an InGaP/GaAs/GaAs NPN HBT show that the proposed model predicts significantly increased base currents, due to the hole-to-trap tunneling enhanced by the emitter-base junction band offset. Finally, the results compare favorably with experimental observation.« less

Efficient Band-to-Trap Tunneling Model Including Heterojunction Band Offset

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Xujiao; Huang, Andy; Kerr, Bert

In this paper, we present an efficient band-to-trap tunneling model based on the Schenk approach, in which an analytic density-of-states (DOS) model is developed based on the open boundary scattering method. The new model explicitly includes the effect of heterojunction band offset, in addition to the well-known field effect. Its analytic form enables straightforward implementation into TCAD device simulators. It is applicable to all one-dimensional potentials, which can be approximated to a good degree such that the approximated potentials lead to piecewise analytic wave functions with open boundary conditions. The model allows for simulating both the electric-field-enhanced and band-offset-enhanced carriermore » recombination due to the band-to-trap tunneling near the heterojunction in a heterojunction bipolar transistor (HBT). Simulation results of an InGaP/GaAs/GaAs NPN HBT show that the proposed model predicts significantly increased base currents, due to the hole-to-trap tunneling enhanced by the emitter-base junction band offset. Finally, the results compare favorably with experimental observation.« less

2018 update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development of new computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype, with enhanced usability for low-income settings.

PubMed

Revell, Andrew D; Wang, Dechao; Perez-Elias, Maria-Jesus; Wood, Robin; Cogill, Dolphina; Tempelman, Hugo; Hamers, Raph L; Reiss, Peter; van Sighem, Ard I; Rehm, Catherine A; Pozniak, Anton; Montaner, Julio S G; Lane, H Clifford; Larder, Brendan A

2018-06-08

Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis can be challenging, particularly in settings with limited access to drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare their predictive accuracy with that of genotyping. Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to a new therapy introduced following virological failure using up to 50 000 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype and 18 000 TCEs including genotypes. Independent data sets were used to evaluate the models. This study tested the effects on model accuracy of relaxing the baseline data timing windows, the use of a new filter to exclude probable non-adherent cases and the addition of maraviroc, tipranavir and elvitegravir to the system. The no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.81 using the standard and relaxed baseline data windows, respectively. The genotype models achieved AUC values of 0.86 with the new non-adherence filter and 0.84 without. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate than genotyping with rules-based interpretation, which achieved AUC values of only 0.55-0.63, and were marginally more accurate than previous models. The models were able to identify alternative regimens that were predicted to be effective for the vast majority of cases in which the new regimen prescribed in the clinic failed. These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Evapotranspiration from drained wetlands with different hydrologic regimes: Drivers, modeling, and storage functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chin-Lung; Shukla, Sanjay; Shrestha, Niroj K.

2016-07-01

We tested whether the current understanding of insignificant effect of drainage on evapotranspiration (ET) in the temperate region wetlands applies to those in the subtropics. Hydro-climatic drivers causing the changes in drained wetlands were identified and used to develop a generic model to predict wetland ET. Eddy covariance (EC)-based ET measurements were made for two years at two differently drained but close by wetlands, a heavily drained wetland (SW) (97% reduced surface storage) and a more functional wetland (DW) (42% reduced storage). Annual ET for more intensively drained SW was 836 mm, 34% less than DW (1271 mm) and the difference was significant (p = 0.001). This difference was mainly due to drainage driven differences in inundation and associated effects on net radiation (Rn) and local relative humidity. Two generic daily ET models, a regression model (MSE = 0.44 mm2, R2 = 0.80) and a machine learning-based Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) model (MSE = 0.36 mm2, R2 = 0.84), were developed with the latter being more robust. The RVM model can predict changes in ET for different restoration scenarios; a 1.1 m rise in drainage level showed 7% increase ET (18 mm) at SW while the increase at DW was negligible. The additional ET, 28% of surface flow, can enhance water storage, flood protection, and climate mitigation services at SW compared to DW. More intensely drained wetlands at higher elevation should be targeted for restoration for enhanced storage through increased ET. The models developed can predict changes in ET for improved evaluation of basin-scale effects of restoration programs and climate change scenarios.

Hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) and its application to predicting key process variables.

PubMed

He, Yan-Lin; Xu, Yuan; Geng, Zhi-Qiang; Zhu, Qun-Xiong

2016-03-01

In this paper, a hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) is proposed. Firstly, an improved functional link neural network with small norm of expanded weights and high input-output correlation (SNEWHIOC-FLNN) was proposed for enhancing the generalization performance of FLNN. Unlike the traditional FLNN, the expanded variables of the original inputs are not directly used as the inputs in the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model. The original inputs are attached to some small norm of expanded weights. As a result, the correlation coefficient between some of the expanded variables and the outputs is enhanced. The larger the correlation coefficient is, the more relevant the expanded variables tend to be. In the end, the expanded variables with larger correlation coefficient are selected as the inputs to improve the performance of the traditional FLNN. In order to test the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model, three UCI (University of California, Irvine) regression datasets named Housing, Concrete Compressive Strength (CCS), and Yacht Hydro Dynamics (YHD) are selected. Then a hybrid model based on the improved FLNN integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) was built. In IFLNN-PLS model, the connection weights are calculated using the partial least square method but not the error back propagation algorithm. Lastly, IFLNN-PLS was developed as an intelligent measurement model for accurately predicting the key variables in the Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) process and the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) process. Simulation results illustrated that the IFLNN-PLS could significant improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing depression tendency of web posts using an event-driven depression tendency warning model.

PubMed

Tung, Chiaming; Lu, Wenhsiang

2016-01-01

The Internet has become a platform to express individual moods/feelings of daily life, where authors share their thoughts in web blogs, micro-blogs, forums, bulletin board systems or other media. In this work, we investigate text-mining technology to analyze and predict the depression tendency of web posts. In this paper, we defined depression factors, which include negative events, negative emotions, symptoms, and negative thoughts from web posts. We proposed an enhanced event extraction (E3) method to automatically extract negative event terms. In addition, we also proposed an event-driven depression tendency warning (EDDTW) model to predict the depression tendency of web bloggers or post authors by analyzing their posted articles. We compare the performance among the proposed EDDTW model, negative emotion evaluation (NEE) model, and the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders-based depression tendency evaluation method. The EDDTW model obtains the best recall rate and F-measure at 0.668 and 0.624, respectively, while the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders-based method achieves the best precision rate of 0.666. The main reason is that our enhanced event extraction method can increase recall rate by enlarging the negative event lexicon at the expense of precision. Our EDDTW model can also be used to track the change or trend of depression tendency for each post author. The depression tendency trend can help doctors to diagnose and even track depression of web post authors more efficiently. This paper presents an E3 method to automatically extract negative event terms in web posts. We also proposed a new EDDTW model to predict the depression tendency of web posts and possibly help bloggers or post authors to early detect major depressive disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proposed Framework for Determining Added Mass of Orion Drogue Parachutes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fraire, Usbaldo, Jr.; Dearman, James; Morris, Aaron

2011-01-01

The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) project is executing a program to qualify a parachute system for a next generation human spacecraft. Part of the qualification process involves predicting parachute riser tension during system descent with flight simulations. Human rating the CPAS hardware requires a high degree of confidence in the simulation models used to predict parachute loads. However, uncertainty exists in the heritage added mass models used for loads predictions due to a lack of supporting documentation and data. Even though CPAS anchors flight simulation loads predictions to flight tests, extrapolation of these models outside the test regime carries the risk of producing non-bounding loads. A set of equations based on empirically derived functions of skirt radius is recommended as the simplest and most viable method to test and derive an enhanced added mass model for an inflating parachute. This will increase confidence in the capability to predict parachute loads. The selected equations are based on those published in A Simplified Dynamic Model of Parachute Inflation by Dean Wolf. An Ames 80x120 wind tunnel test campaign is recommended to acquire the reefing line tension and canopy photogrammetric data needed to quantify the terms in the Wolf equations and reduce uncertainties in parachute loads predictions. Once the campaign is completed, the Wolf equations can be used to predict loads in a typical CPAS Drogue Flight test. Comprehensive descriptions of added mass test techniques from the Apollo Era to the current CPAS project are included for reference.

Predicting Coastal Flood Severity using Random Forest Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

2017-12-01

Coastal floods have become more common recently and are predicted to further increase in frequency and severity due to sea level rise. Predicting floods in coastal cities can be difficult due to the number of environmental and geographic factors which can influence flooding events. Built stormwater infrastructure and irregular urban landscapes add further complexity. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning algorithms in predicting street flood occurrence in an urban coastal setting. The model is trained and evaluated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 - October 2016. Rainfall, tide levels, water table levels, and wind conditions are used as input variables. Street flooding reports made by city workers after named and unnamed storm events, ranging from 1-159 reports per event, are the model output. Results show that Random Forest provides predictive power in estimating the number of flood occurrences given a set of environmental conditions with an out-of-bag root mean squared error of 4.3 flood reports and a mean absolute error of 0.82 flood reports. The Random Forest algorithm performed much better than Poisson regression. From the Random Forest model, total daily rainfall was by far the most important factor in flood occurrence prediction, followed by daily low tide and daily higher high tide. The model demonstrated here could be used to predict flood severity based on forecast rainfall and tide conditions and could be further enhanced using more complete street flooding data for model training.

Fluctuations in epidemic modeling - disease extinction and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Ira

2009-03-01

The analysis of infectious disease fluctuations has recently seen an increasing rise in the use of new tools and models from stochastic dynamics and statistical physics. Examples arise in modeling fluctuations of multi-strain diseases, in modeling adaptive social behavior and its impact on disease fluctuations, and in the analysis of disease extinction in finite population models. Proper stochastic model reduction [1] allows one to predict unobserved fluctuations from observed data in multi-strain models [2]. Degree alteration and power law behavior is predicted in adaptive network epidemic models [3,4]. And extinction rates derived from large fluctuation theory exhibit scaling with respect to distance to the bifurcation point of disease onset with an unusual exponent [5]. In addition to outbreak prediction, another main goal of epidemic modeling is one of eliminating the disease to extinction through various control mechanisms, such as vaccine implementation or quarantine. In this talk, a description will be presented of the fluctuational behavior of several epidemic models and their extinction rates. A general framework and analysis of the effect of non-Gaussian control actuations which enhance the rate to disease extinction will be described. In particular, in it is shown that even in the presence of a small Poisson distributed vaccination program, there is an exponentially enhanced rate to disease extinction. These ideas may lead to improved methods of controlling disease where random vaccinations are prevalent. [4pt] Recent papers:[0pt] [1] E. Forgoston and I. B. Schwartz, ``Escape Rates in a Stochastic Environment with Multiple Scales,'' arXiv:0809.1345 2008.[0pt] [2] L. B. Shaw, L. Billings, I. B. Schwartz, ``Using dimension reduction to improve outbreak predictability of multi-strain diseases,'' J. Math. Bio. 55, 1 2007.[0pt] [3] L. B. Shaw and I. B. Schwartz, ``Fluctuating epidemics on adaptive networks,'' Physical Review E 77, 066101 2008.[0pt] [4] L. B. Shaw and I. B. Schwartz, ``Noise induced dynamics in adaptivenetworks with applications to epidemiology,'' arXiv:0807.3455 2008.[0pt] [5] M. I. Dykman, I. B. Schwartz, A. S. Landsman, ``Disease Extinction in the Presence of Random Vaccination,'' Phys. Rev. Letts. 101, 078101 2008.

Eddy Resolving Global Ocean Prediction including Tides

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

cooler than the enhanced dark contour) represent regions inconsistent with QG or SQG theory. The model spectra decay rapidly with increasing...Teixeira, and J.A. Hawkins, 2003: Analysis of coupled oceanographic and acoustic soliton simulations in the Yellow Sea: a search for soliton -induced

RISK 0301 - MOLECULAR MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment practices, in general, for a range of diseases now encourages the use of mechanistic data to enhance the ability to predict responses at low, environmental exposures. In particular, the pathway from normal biology to pathologic state can be dcscribed by a set of m...

Self-Concept and Participation in School Activities Reanalyzed.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winne, Philip H.; Walsh, John

1980-01-01

Yarworth and Gauthier (EJ 189 606) examined whether self-concept variables enhanced predictions about students' participation in school activities, using unstructured stepwise regression techniques. A reanalysis of their data using hierarchial regression models tested their hypothesis more appropriately, and uncovered multicollinearity and…

Predicted effect of landscape position on wildlife habitat value of Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program wetlands in a tile-drained agricultural region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, David L.; Crumpton, William R.; Green, David; Loan-Wilsey, Anna; Cooper, Tom; Johnson, Rex R.

2013-01-01

Justification for investment in restored or constructed wetland projects are often based on presumed net increases in ecosystem services. However, quantitative assessment of performance metrics is often difficult and restricted to a single objective. More comprehensive performance assessments could help inform decision-makers about trade-offs in services provided by alternative restoration program design attributes. The primary goal of the Iowa Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program is to establish wetlands that efficiently remove nitrates from tile-drained agricultural landscapes. A secondary objective is provision of wildlife habitat. We used existing wildlife habitat models to compare relative net change in potential wildlife habitat value for four alternative landscape positions of wetlands within the watershed. Predicted species richness and habitat value for birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles generally increased as the wetland position moved lower in the watershed. However, predicted average net increase between pre- and post-project value was dependent on taxonomic group. The increased average wetland area and changes in surrounding upland habitat composition among landscape positions were responsible for these differences. Net change in predicted densities of several grassland bird species at the four landscape positions was variable and species-dependent. Predicted waterfowl breeding activity was greater for lower drainage position wetlands. Although our models are simplistic and provide only a predictive index of potential habitat value, we believe such assessment exercises can provide a tool for coarse-level comparisons of alternative proposed project attributes and a basis for constructing informed hypotheses in auxiliary empirical field studies.

Investigation of a new model of dipolar-coupled nuclear spin relaxation and applications of dynamic nuclear polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorte, Eric G.

This work presents the results of various investigations using various techniques of hyperpolarizing the nuclei of atoms. Hyperpolarization implies magnetic order in excess of the thermal order obtained naturally as described by Curie's law. The main portion of this work presents the results of a detailed experimental exploration of predictions arising from a new model of transverse nuclear spin relaxation in quantum systems, based on possible manifestations of microscopic chaos in quantum systems. Experiments have been carried out on a number of hyperpolarized xenon samples, each differing in its relative percentage of xenon isotopes in order to vary the homonuclear and heteronuclear dipole couplings in the spin system. The experiments were performed under a variety of conditions in an attempt to observe the behaviors predicted by the model. Additionally, much more extensive measurements were made on a number of samples of solid CaF2 in both single crystal and powder forms. These samples, although thermally polarized, were observed with superior signal to noise ratios than even the hyperpolarized xenon solids, allowing for more precise measurements for comparison to the theory. This work thus contains the first experimental evidence for the majority of the model's predictions. Additionally, this work contains the first precise measurements of the frequency-shift enhancement parameters for 129Xe and krypton in the presence of spin-polarized Rb. The determination of these important numbers will be useful to many groups who utilize spin-exchange optical pumping in their labs. This work built on the prior knowledge of a precise number for the frequency-shift enhancement parameter of 3He in Rb vapor. Finally, I detail work using NMR to detect nuclear-spin polarization enhancement in silicon phosphorus by a novel, photo-induced hyperpolarization technique developed by the Boehme research group at the University of Utah. Significant nuclear polarization enhancements were observed by the Boehme group due to electron-photon interactions in semiconductor soilds; these enhancements were observed by their effects on the ambient electrons and measured with electron spin resonance techniques. The work described here details experiments to observe the enhanced nuclear polarization by directly measuring the intensity increase in an NMR measurement. I will conclude this dissertation with a brief appendix giving a summary of one additional project involving the use of high pressure fluorinated gas NMR to measure the internal topology and characteristics of energy-rich oil shales.

Template CoMFA Generates Single 3D-QSAR Models that, for Twelve of Twelve Biological Targets, Predict All ChEMBL-Tabulated Affinities

PubMed Central

Cramer, Richard D.

2015-01-01

The possible applicability of the new template CoMFA methodology to the prediction of unknown biological affinities was explored. For twelve selected targets, all ChEMBL binding affinities were used as training and/or prediction sets, making these 3D-QSAR models the most structurally diverse and among the largest ever. For six of the targets, X-ray crystallographic structures provided the aligned templates required as input (BACE, cdk1, chk2, carbonic anhydrase-II, factor Xa, PTP1B). For all targets including the other six (hERG, cyp3A4 binding, endocrine receptor, COX2, D2, and GABAa), six modeling protocols applied to only three familiar ligands provided six alternate sets of aligned templates. The statistical qualities of the six or seven models thus resulting for each individual target were remarkably similar. Also, perhaps unexpectedly, the standard deviations of the errors of cross-validation predictions accompanying model derivations were indistinguishable from the standard deviations of the errors of truly prospective predictions. These standard deviations of prediction ranged from 0.70 to 1.14 log units and averaged 0.89 (8x in concentration units) over the twelve targets, representing an average reduction of almost 50% in uncertainty, compared to the null hypothesis of “predicting” an unknown affinity to be the average of known affinities. These errors of prediction are similar to those from Tanimoto coefficients of fragment occurrence frequencies, the predominant approach to side effect prediction, which template CoMFA can augment by identifying additional active structural classes, by improving Tanimoto-only predictions, by yielding quantitative predictions of potency, and by providing interpretable guidance for avoiding or enhancing any specific target response. PMID:26065424

Knowledge Based Cloud FE Simulation of Sheet Metal Forming Processes.

PubMed

Zhou, Du; Yuan, Xi; Gao, Haoxiang; Wang, Ailing; Liu, Jun; El Fakir, Omer; Politis, Denis J; Wang, Liliang; Lin, Jianguo

2016-12-13

The use of Finite Element (FE) simulation software to adequately predict the outcome of sheet metal forming processes is crucial to enhancing the efficiency and lowering the development time of such processes, whilst reducing costs involved in trial-and-error prototyping. Recent focus on the substitution of steel components with aluminum alloy alternatives in the automotive and aerospace sectors has increased the need to simulate the forming behavior of such alloys for ever more complex component geometries. However these alloys, and in particular their high strength variants, exhibit limited formability at room temperature, and high temperature manufacturing technologies have been developed to form them. Consequently, advanced constitutive models are required to reflect the associated temperature and strain rate effects. Simulating such behavior is computationally very expensive using conventional FE simulation techniques. This paper presents a novel Knowledge Based Cloud FE (KBC-FE) simulation technique that combines advanced material and friction models with conventional FE simulations in an efficient manner thus enhancing the capability of commercial simulation software packages. The application of these methods is demonstrated through two example case studies, namely: the prediction of a material's forming limit under hot stamping conditions, and the tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions.

Knowledge Based Cloud FE Simulation of Sheet Metal Forming Processes

PubMed Central

Zhou, Du; Yuan, Xi; Gao, Haoxiang; Wang, Ailing; Liu, Jun; El Fakir, Omer; Politis, Denis J.; Wang, Liliang; Lin, Jianguo

2016-01-01

The use of Finite Element (FE) simulation software to adequately predict the outcome of sheet metal forming processes is crucial to enhancing the efficiency and lowering the development time of such processes, whilst reducing costs involved in trial-and-error prototyping. Recent focus on the substitution of steel components with aluminum alloy alternatives in the automotive and aerospace sectors has increased the need to simulate the forming behavior of such alloys for ever more complex component geometries. However these alloys, and in particular their high strength variants, exhibit limited formability at room temperature, and high temperature manufacturing technologies have been developed to form them. Consequently, advanced constitutive models are required to reflect the associated temperature and strain rate effects. Simulating such behavior is computationally very expensive using conventional FE simulation techniques. This paper presents a novel Knowledge Based Cloud FE (KBC-FE) simulation technique that combines advanced material and friction models with conventional FE simulations in an efficient manner thus enhancing the capability of commercial simulation software packages. The application of these methods is demonstrated through two example case studies, namely: the prediction of a material's forming limit under hot stamping conditions, and the tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions. PMID:28060298

Predictive Modeling of Chemical Hazard by Integrating Numerical Descriptors of Chemical Structures and Short-term Toxicity Assay Data

PubMed Central

Rusyn, Ivan; Sedykh, Alexander; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Tropsha, Alexander

2012-01-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models are widely used for in silico prediction of in vivo toxicity of drug candidates or environmental chemicals, adding value to candidate selection in drug development or in a search for less hazardous and more sustainable alternatives for chemicals in commerce. The development of traditional QSAR models is enabled by numerical descriptors representing the inherent chemical properties that can be easily defined for any number of molecules; however, traditional QSAR models often have limited predictive power due to the lack of data and complexity of in vivo endpoints. Although it has been indeed difficult to obtain experimentally derived toxicity data on a large number of chemicals in the past, the results of quantitative in vitro screening of thousands of environmental chemicals in hundreds of experimental systems are now available and continue to accumulate. In addition, publicly accessible toxicogenomics data collected on hundreds of chemicals provide another dimension of molecular information that is potentially useful for predictive toxicity modeling. These new characteristics of molecular bioactivity arising from short-term biological assays, i.e., in vitro screening and/or in vivo toxicogenomics data can now be exploited in combination with chemical structural information to generate hybrid QSAR–like quantitative models to predict human toxicity and carcinogenicity. Using several case studies, we illustrate the benefits of a hybrid modeling approach, namely improvements in the accuracy of models, enhanced interpretation of the most predictive features, and expanded applicability domain for wider chemical space coverage. PMID:22387746

Probabilistic fatigue life prediction of metallic and composite materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Yibing

Fatigue is one of the most common failure modes for engineering structures, such as aircrafts, rotorcrafts and aviation transports. Both metallic materials and composite materials are widely used and affected by fatigue damage. Huge uncertainties arise from material properties, measurement noise, imperfect models, future anticipated loads and environmental conditions. These uncertainties are critical issues for accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction for engineering structures in service. Probabilistic fatigue prognosis considering various uncertainties is of great importance for structural safety. The objective of this study is to develop probabilistic fatigue life prediction models for metallic materials and composite materials. A fatigue model based on crack growth analysis and equivalent initial flaw size concept is proposed for metallic materials. Following this, the developed model is extended to include structural geometry effects (notch effect), environmental effects (corroded specimens) and manufacturing effects (shot peening effects). Due to the inhomogeneity and anisotropy, the fatigue model suitable for metallic materials cannot be directly applied to composite materials. A composite fatigue model life prediction is proposed based on a mixed-mode delamination growth model and a stiffness degradation law. After the development of deterministic fatigue models of metallic and composite materials, a general probabilistic life prediction methodology is developed. The proposed methodology combines an efficient Inverse First-Order Reliability Method (IFORM) for the uncertainty propogation in fatigue life prediction. An equivalent stresstransformation has been developed to enhance the computational efficiency under realistic random amplitude loading. A systematical reliability-based maintenance optimization framework is proposed for fatigue risk management and mitigation of engineering structures.

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2016-01-01

This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Nia conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric/stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

Experimental evaluation of models for predicting Cherenkov light intensities from short-cooled nuclear fuel assemblies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branger, E.; Grape, S.; Jansson, P.; Jacobsson Svärd, S.

2018-02-01

The Digital Cherenkov Viewing Device (DCVD) is a tool used by nuclear safeguards inspectors to verify irradiated nuclear fuel assemblies in wet storage based on the recording of Cherenkov light produced by the assemblies. One type of verification involves comparing the measured light intensity from an assembly with a predicted intensity, based on assembly declarations. Crucial for such analyses is the performance of the prediction model used, and recently new modelling methods have been introduced to allow for enhanced prediction capabilities by taking the irradiation history into account, and by including the cross-talk radiation from neighbouring assemblies in the predictions. In this work, the performance of three models for Cherenkov-light intensity prediction is evaluated by applying them to a set of short-cooled PWR 17x17 assemblies for which experimental DCVD measurements and operator-declared irradiation data was available; (1) a two-parameter model, based on total burnup and cooling time, previously used by the safeguards inspectors, (2) a newly introduced gamma-spectrum-based model, which incorporates cycle-wise burnup histories, and (3) the latter gamma-spectrum-based model with the addition to account for contributions from neighbouring assemblies. The results show that the two gamma-spectrum-based models provide significantly higher precision for the measured inventory compared to the two-parameter model, lowering the standard deviation between relative measured and predicted intensities from 15.2 % to 8.1 % respectively 7.8 %. The results show some systematic differences between assemblies of different designs (produced by different manufacturers) in spite of their similar PWR 17x17 geometries, and possible ways are discussed to address such differences, which may allow for even higher prediction capabilities. Still, it is concluded that the gamma-spectrum-based models enable confident verification of the fuel assembly inventory at the currently used detection limit for partial defects, being a 30 % discrepancy between measured and predicted intensities, while some false detection occurs with the two-parameter model. The results also indicate that the gamma-spectrum-based prediction methods are accurate enough that the 30 % discrepancy limit could potentially be lowered.

Quantitative characterization of edge enhancement in phase contrast x-ray imaging.

PubMed

Monnin, P; Bulling, S; Hoszowska, J; Valley, J F; Meuli, R; Verdun, F R

2004-06-01

The aim of this study was to model the edge enhancement effect in in-line holography phase contrast imaging. A simple analytical approach was used to quantify refraction and interference contrasts in terms of beam energy and imaging geometry. The model was applied to predict the peak intensity and frequency of the edge enhancement for images of cylindrical fibers. The calculations were compared with measurements, and the relationship between the spatial resolution of the detector and the amplitude of the phase contrast signal was investigated. Calculations using the analytical model were in good agreement with experimental results for nylon, aluminum and copper wires of 50 to 240 microm diameter, and with numerical simulations based on Fresnel-Kirchhoff theory. A relationship between the defocusing distance and the pixel size of the image detector was established. This analytical model is a useful tool for optimizing imaging parameters in phase contrast in-line holography, including defocusing distance, detector resolution and beam energy.

Development of thermal model to analyze thermal flux distribution in thermally enhanced machining of high chrome white cast iron

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravi, A. M.; Murigendrappa, S. M.

2018-04-01

In recent times, thermally enhanced machining (TEM) slowly gearing up to cut hard metals like high chrome white cast iron (HCWCI) which were impossible in conventional procedures. Also setting up of suitable cutting parameters and positioning of the heat source against the work appears to be critical in order to enhance the machinability characteristics of the work material. In this research work, the Oxy - LPG flame was used as the heat source and HCWCI as the workpiece. ANSYS-CFD-Flow software was used to develop the transient thermal model to analyze the thermal flux distribution on the work surface during TEM of HCWCI using Cubic boron nitride (CBN) tools. Non-contact type Infrared thermo sensor was used to measure the surface temperature continuously at different positions, and is validated with the thermal model results. The result confirms thermal model is a better predictive tool for thermal flux distribution analysis in TEM process.

Seafloor hydrothermal activity and spreading rates - The Eocene carbon dioxide greenhouse revisited

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasting, J. F.; Richardson, S. M.

1985-01-01

A suggestion has been made that enhanced rates of hydrothermal activity during the Eocene could have caused a global warming by adding calcium to the ocean and pumping CO2 into the atmosphere (Owen and Rea, 1984). This phenomenon was purported to be consistent with the predictions of the CO2 geochemical cycle model of Berner, Lasaga and Garrels (1983) (henceforth BLAG). In fact, however, the BLAG model predicts only a weak connection between hydrothermal activity and atmospheric CO2 levels. By contrast, it predicts a strong correlation between seafloor spreading rates and pCO2, since the release rate of CO2 from carbonate metamorphism is assumed to be proportional to the mean spreading rate. The Eocene warming can be conveniently explained if the BLAG model is extended by assuming that the rate of carbonate metamorphism is also proportional to the total length of the midocean ridges from which the spreading originates.

Seafloor hydrothermal activity and spreading rates: the Eocene carbon dioxide greenhouse revisted

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasting, J. F.; Richardson, S. M.

1985-01-01

A suggestion has been made that enhanced rates of hydrothermal activity during the Eocene could have caused a global warming by adding calcium to the ocean and pumping CO2 into the atmosphere (Owen and Rea, 1984). This phenomenon was purported to be consistent with the predictions of the CO2 geochemical cycle model of Berner, Lasaga and Garrels (1983) (henceforth BLAG). In fact, however, the BLAG model predicts only a weak connection between hydrothermal activity and atmospheric CO2 levels. By contrast, it predicts a strong correlation between seafloor spreading rates and pCO2, since the release rate of CO2 from carbonate metamorphism is assumed to be proportional to the mean spreading rate. The Ecocene warming can be conveniently explained if the BLAG model is extended by assuming that the rate of carbonate metamorphism is also proportional to the total length of the midocean ridges from which the spreading originates.

Motivation towards extracurricular activities and motivation at school: A test of the generalization effect hypothesis.

PubMed

Denault, Anne-Sophie; Guay, Frédéric

2017-01-01

Participation in extracurricular activities is a promising avenue for enhancing students' school motivation. Using self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000), the goal of this study was to test a serial multiple mediator model. In this model, students' perceptions of autonomy support from their extracurricular activity leader predicted their activity-based intrinsic and identified regulations. In turn, these regulations predicted their school-based intrinsic and identified regulations during the same school year. Finally, these regulations predicted their school-based intrinsic and identified regulations one year later. A total of 276 youths (54% girls) from disadvantaged neighborhoods were surveyed over two waves of data collection. The proposed mediation model was supported for both types of regulation. These results highlight the generalization effects of motivation from the extracurricular activity context to the school context. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Adverse Outcome Pathways Can Aid the Development and Use of Computational Prediction Models for Regulatory Toxicology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wittwehr, Clemens; Aladjov, Hristo; Ankley, Gerald

Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumulated mechanistic understanding. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a systematic approach for organizing knowledge that supports such inference. We argue that this systematic organization of knowledge can inform and help direct the design and development of computational prediction models that can further enhance the utility of mechanistic and in silico data for chemical safety assessment.more » Examples of AOP-informed model development and its application to the assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization and multiple modes of endocrine disruption are provided. The role of problem formulation, not only as a critical phase of risk assessment, but also as guide for both AOP and complementary model development described. Finally, a proposal for actively engaging the modeling community in AOP-informed computational model development is made. The contents serve as a vision for how AOPs can be leveraged to facilitate development of computational prediction models needed to support the next generation of chemical safety assessment.« less

Geological modelling of mineral deposits for prediction in mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sides, E. J.

Accurate prediction of the shape, location, size and properties of the solid rock materials to be extracted during mining is essential for reliable technical and financial planning. This is achieved through geological modelling of the three-dimensional (3D) shape and properties of the materials present in mineral deposits, and the presentation of results in a form which is accessible to mine planning engineers. In recent years the application of interactive graphics software, offering 3D database handling, modelling and visualisation, has greatly enhanced the options available for predicting the subsurface limits and characteristics of mineral deposits. A review of conventional 3D geological interpretation methods, and the model struc- tures and modelling methods used in reserve estimation and mine planning software packages, illustrates the importance of such approaches in the modern mining industry. Despite the widespread introduction and acceptance of computer hardware and software in mining applications, in recent years, there has been little fundamental change in the way in which geology is used in orebody modelling for predictive purposes. Selected areas of current research, aimed at tackling issues such as the use of orientation data, quantification of morphological differences, incorporation of geological age relationships, multi-resolution models and the application of virtual reality hardware and software, are discussed.

Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Influence of the Solar Proton Events and Ground Level Enhancement in January 2005

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, C. H.; Marsh, D. R.; Vitt, F. M.; Roble, R. G.; Randall, C. E.; Bernath, P. F.; Funke, B.; Lopez-Puertas, M.; Versick, S.; Stiller, G. P.;

Predictive Modeling and Concentration of the Risk of Suicide: Implications for Preventive Interventions in the US Department of Veterans Affairs

PubMed Central

McCarthy, John F.; Katz, Ira R.; Thompson, Caitlin; Kemp, Janet; Hannemann, Claire M.; Nielson, Christopher; Schoenbaum, Michael

2015-01-01

Objectives. The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) evaluated the use of predictive modeling to identify patients at risk for suicide and to supplement ongoing care with risk-stratified interventions. Methods. Suicide data came from the National Death Index. Predictors were measures from VHA clinical records incorporating patient-months from October 1, 2008, to September 30, 2011, for all suicide decedents and 1% of living patients, divided randomly into development and validation samples. We used data on all patients alive on September 30, 2010, to evaluate predictions of suicide risk over 1 year. Results. Modeling demonstrated that suicide rates were 82 and 60 times greater than the rate in the overall sample in the highest 0.01% stratum for calculated risk for the development and validation samples, respectively; 39 and 30 times greater in the highest 0.10%; 14 and 12 times greater in the highest 1.00%; and 6.3 and 5.7 times greater in the highest 5.00%. Conclusions. Predictive modeling can identify high-risk patients who were not identified on clinical grounds. VHA is developing modeling to enhance clinical care and to guide the delivery of preventive interventions. PMID:26066914

Predictive Modeling and Concentration of the Risk of Suicide: Implications for Preventive Interventions in the US Department of Veterans Affairs.

PubMed

McCarthy, John F; Bossarte, Robert M; Katz, Ira R; Thompson, Caitlin; Kemp, Janet; Hannemann, Claire M; Nielson, Christopher; Schoenbaum, Michael

2015-09-01

The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) evaluated the use of predictive modeling to identify patients at risk for suicide and to supplement ongoing care with risk-stratified interventions. Suicide data came from the National Death Index. Predictors were measures from VHA clinical records incorporating patient-months from October 1, 2008, to September 30, 2011, for all suicide decedents and 1% of living patients, divided randomly into development and validation samples. We used data on all patients alive on September 30, 2010, to evaluate predictions of suicide risk over 1 year. Modeling demonstrated that suicide rates were 82 and 60 times greater than the rate in the overall sample in the highest 0.01% stratum for calculated risk for the development and validation samples, respectively; 39 and 30 times greater in the highest 0.10%; 14 and 12 times greater in the highest 1.00%; and 6.3 and 5.7 times greater in the highest 5.00%. Predictive modeling can identify high-risk patients who were not identified on clinical grounds. VHA is developing modeling to enhance clinical care and to guide the delivery of preventive interventions.

An Artificial Neural Network-Based Ionospheric Model to Predict NmF2 and hmF2 Using Long-Term Data Set of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Radio Occultation Observations: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sai Gowtam, V.; Tulasi Ram, S.

2017-11-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are known to be capable of solving linear as well as highly nonlinear problems. Using the long-term and high-quality data set of Formosa Satellite-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC, in short F3/C) from 2006 to 2015, an ANN-based two-dimensional (2-D) Ionospheric Model (ANNIM) is developed to predict the ionospheric peak parameters, such as NmF2 and hmF2. In this pilot study, the ANNIM results are compared with the original F3/C data, GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) observations as well as International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 model to assess the learning efficiency of the neural networks used in the model. The ANNIM could well predict the NmF2 (hmF2) values with RMS errors of 1.87 × 105 el/cm3 (27.9 km) with respect to actual F3/C; and 2.98 × 105 el/cm3 (40.18 km) with respect to independent GRACE data. Further, the ANNIM predictions found to be as good as IRI-2016 model with a slightly smaller RMS error when compared to independent GRACE data. The ANNIM has successfully reproduced the local time, latitude, longitude, and seasonal variations with errors ranging 15-25% for NmF2 and 10-15% for hmF2 compared to actual F3/C data, except the postsunset enhancement in hmF2. Further, the ANNIM has also captured the global-scale ionospheric phenomena such as ionospheric annual anomaly, Weddell Sea Anomaly, and the midlatitude summer nighttime anomaly. Compared to IRI-2016 model, the ANNIM is found to have better represented the fine longitudinal structures and the midlatitude summer nighttime enhancements in both the hemispheres.

Psychological resilience, pain catastrophizing, and positive emotions: perspectives on comprehensive modeling of individual pain adaptation.

PubMed

Sturgeon, John A; Zautra, Alex J

2013-03-01

Pain is a complex construct that contributes to profound physical and psychological dysfunction, particularly in individuals coping with chronic pain. The current paper builds upon previous research, describes a balanced conceptual model that integrates aspects of both psychological vulnerability and resilience to pain, and reviews protective and exacerbating psychosocial factors to the process of adaptation to chronic pain, including pain catastrophizing, pain acceptance, and positive psychological resources predictive of enhanced pain coping. The current paper identifies future directions for research that will further enrich the understanding of pain adaptation and espouses an approach that will enhance the ecological validity of psychological pain coping models, including introduction of advanced statistical and conceptual models that integrate behavioral, cognitive, information processing, motivational and affective theories of pain.

Physics-Based Compact Model for CIGS and CdTe Solar Cells: From Voltage-Dependent Carrier Collection to Light-Enhanced Reverse Breakdown: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Xingshu; Alam, Muhammad Ashraful; Raguse, John

2015-10-15

In this paper, we develop a physics-based compact model for copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe) heterojunction solar cells that attributes the failure of superposition to voltage-dependent carrier collection in the absorber layer, and interprets light-enhanced reverse breakdown as a consequence of tunneling-assisted Poole-Frenkel conduction. The temperature dependence of the model is validated against both simulation and experimental data for the entire range of bias conditions. The model can be used to characterize device parameters, optimize new designs, and most importantly, predict performance and reliability of solar panels including the effects of self-heating and reverse breakdown duemore » to partial-shading degradation.« less

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Robbie; Manville, Vern; Peakall, Jeff; Froude, Melanie J.; Odbert, Henry M.

2017-12-01

Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery.

Development of a Melanoma Risk Prediction Model Incorporating MC1R Genotype and Indoor Tanning Exposure: Impact of Mole Phenotype on Model Performance

PubMed Central

Penn, Lauren A.; Qian, Meng; Zhang, Enhan; Ng, Elise; Shao, Yongzhao; Berwick, Marianne; Lazovich, DeAnn; Polsky, David

2014-01-01

Background Identifying individuals at increased risk for melanoma could potentially improve public health through targeted surveillance and early detection. Studies have separately demonstrated significant associations between melanoma risk, melanocortin receptor (MC1R) polymorphisms, and indoor ultraviolet light (UV) exposure. Existing melanoma risk prediction models do not include these factors; therefore, we investigated their potential to improve the performance of a risk model. Methods Using 875 melanoma cases and 765 controls from the population-based Minnesota Skin Health Study we compared the predictive ability of a clinical melanoma risk model (Model A) to an enhanced model (Model F) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Model A used self-reported conventional risk factors including mole phenotype categorized as “none”, “few”, “some” or “many” moles. Model F added MC1R genotype and measures of indoor and outdoor UV exposure to Model A. We also assessed the predictive ability of these models in subgroups stratified by mole phenotype (e.g. nevus-resistant (“none” and “few” moles) and nevus-prone (“some” and “many” moles)). Results Model A (the reference model) yielded an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% CI = 0.69, 0.74). Model F was improved with an AUC = 0.74 (95% CI = 0.71–0.76, p<0.01). We also observed substantial variations in the AUCs of Models A & F when examined in the nevus-prone and nevus-resistant subgroups. Conclusions These results demonstrate that adding genotypic information and environmental exposure data can increase the predictive ability of a clinical melanoma risk model, especially among nevus-prone individuals. PMID:25003831

Empirical modeling of environment-enhanced fatigue crack propagation in structural alloys for component life prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richey, Edward, III

1995-01-01

This research aims to develop the methods and understanding needed to incorporate time and loading variable dependent environmental effects on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) into computerized fatigue life prediction codes such as NASA FLAGRO (NASGRO). In particular, the effect of loading frequency on FCP rates in alpha + beta titanium alloys exposed to an aqueous chloride solution is investigated. The approach couples empirical modeling of environmental FCP with corrosion fatigue experiments. Three different computer models have been developed and incorporated in the DOS executable program. UVAFAS. A multiple power law model is available, and can fit a set of fatigue data to a multiple power law equation. A model has also been developed which implements the Wei and Landes linear superposition model, as well as an interpolative model which can be utilized to interpolate trends in fatigue behavior based on changes in loading characteristics (stress ratio, frequency, and hold times).

Entertainment-education and recruitment of cornea donors: the role of emotion and issue involvement.

PubMed

Bae, Hyuhn-Suhck

2008-01-01

This study examined the role of emotional responses and viewer's level of issue involvement to an entertainment-education show about cornea donation in order to predict intention to register as cornea donors. Results confirmed that sympathy and empathy responses operated as a catalyst for issue involvement, which emerged as an important intermediary in the persuasion process. Issue involvement also was found to be a common causal antecedent of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control, the last two of which predict intentions unlike attitude, which does not. The revised path model confirmed that involvement directly influences intention. The findings of this study suggest that adding emotion and involvement in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) enhances the explanatory power of the theory in predicting intentions, which indicates the possibility of combining the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) and the TPB in the prediction of human behaviors.

Error enhancement in geomagnetic models derived from scalar data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stern, D. P.; Bredekamp, J. H.

1975-01-01

An investigation conducted by Backus (1970) regarding the possible existence of two harmonic functions of certain characteristics in three-dimensional space is considered. The derivation of a model of the main geomagnetic field from scalar data is discussed along with a numerical simulation study. It is found that experimental discrepancies between vector field observations and the predictions of the model may have a mathematical origin, related to the work of Backus.

Exchangeable lead from prediction models relates to vetiver lead uptake in different soil types.

PubMed

Andra, Syam S; Sarkar, Dibyendu; Saminathan, Sumathi K M; Datta, Rupali

2011-12-01

Prediction models for exchangeable soil lead, published earlier in this journal (Andra et al. 2010a), were developed using a suite of native lead (Pb) paint-contaminated residential soils from two US cities heavily populated with homes constructed prior to Pb ban in paints. In this study, we tested the feasibility and practical applications of these prediction models for developing a phytoremediation design using vetiver grass (Vetiveria zizanioides), a Pb-tolerant plant. The models were used to estimate the exchangeable fraction of Pb available for vetiver uptake in four lead-spiked soil types, both acidic and alkaline, with varying physico-chemical properties and that are different from those used to build the prediction models. Results indicate a strong correlation for predictable exchangeable Pb with the observed fraction and as well with total Pb accumulated by vetiver grass grown in these soils. The correlation coefficient for the predicted vs. observed exchangeable Pb with p < 0.001 was 0.999, 0.996, 0.949, and 0.998 in the Immokalee, Millhopper, Pahokee Muck, and Tobosa soil type, respectively. Similarly, the correlation coefficient for the predicted exchangeable Pb vs. accumulated Pb in vetiver grass with p < 0.001 was 0.948, 0.983, 0.929, and 0.969 for each soil type, respectively. This study suggests that the success of a phytoremediation design could be assessed upfront by predicting the exchangeable Pb fraction in a given soil type based on its properties. This helps in modifying the soil conditions to enhance phytoextraction of Pb from contaminated soils.

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, Archana; Acharya, Nachiketa; Singh, Ankita; Mohanty, U. C.; Panda, T. C.

2013-11-01

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct-Nov-Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982-2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.

Early warning of limit-exceeding concentrations of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in drinking water reservoirs by inferential modelling.

PubMed

Recknagel, Friedrich; Orr, Philip T; Bartkow, Michael; Swanepoel, Annelie; Cao, Hongqing

2017-11-01

An early warning scheme is proposed that runs ensembles of inferential models for predicting the cyanobacterial population dynamics and cyanotoxin concentrations in drinking water reservoirs on a diel basis driven by in situ sonde water quality data. When the 10- to 30-day-ahead predicted concentrations of cyanobacteria cells or cyanotoxins exceed pre-defined limit values, an early warning automatically activates an action plan considering in-lake control, e.g. intermittent mixing and ad hoc water treatment in water works, respectively. Case studies of the sub-tropical Lake Wivenhoe (Australia) and the Mediterranean Vaal Reservoir (South Africa) demonstrate that ensembles of inferential models developed by the hybrid evolutionary algorithm HEA are capable of up to 30days forecasts of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins using data collected in situ. The resulting models for Dolicospermum circinale displayed validity for up to 10days ahead, whilst concentrations of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and microcystins were successfully predicted up to 30days ahead. Implementing the proposed scheme for drinking water reservoirs enhances current water quality monitoring practices by solely utilising in situ monitoring data, in addition to cyanobacteria and cyanotoxin measurements. Access to routinely measured cyanotoxin data allows for development of models that predict explicitly cyanotoxin concentrations that avoid to inadvertently model and predict non-toxic cyanobacterial strains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.

2003-04-01

The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

Modeling and evaluation of urban pollution events of atmospheric heavy metals from a large Cu-smelter.

PubMed

Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F; Castell, Nuria; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Sanchez de la Campa, A M; de la Rosa, J D

2016-01-01

Metal smelting and processing are highly polluting activities that have a strong influence on the levels of heavy metals in air, soil, and crops. We employ an atmospheric transport and dispersion model to predict the pollution levels originated from the second largest Cu-smelter in Europe. The model predicts that the concentrations of copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and arsenic (As) in an urban area close to the Cu-smelter can reach 170, 70, and 30 ng m−3, respectively. The model captures all the observed urban pollution events, but the magnitude of the elemental concentrations is predicted to be lower than that of the observed values; ~300, ~500, and ~100 ng m−3 for Cu, Zn, and As, respectively. The comparison between model and observations showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.62 ± 0.13. The simulation shows that the transport of heavy metals reaches a peak in the afternoon over the urban area. The under-prediction in the peak is explained by the simulated stronger winds compared with monitoring data. The stronger simulated winds enhance the transport and dispersion of heavy metals to the regional area, diminishing the impact of pollution events in the urban area. This model, driven by high resolution meteorology (2 km in horizontal), predicts the hourly-interval evolutions of atmospheric heavy metal pollutions in the close by urban area of industrial hotspot.

Coordinated Satellite Observations of the Very Low Frequency Transmission Through the Ionospheric D Layer at Low Latitudes, Using Broadband Radio Emissions From Lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Abram R.; Holzworth, Robert H.; Pfaff, Robert; Heelis, Roderick

2018-04-01

Both ray theory and full-wave models of very low frequency transmission through the ionospheric D layer predict that the transmission is greatly suppressed near the geomagnetic equator. We use data from the low-inclination Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System satellite to test this semiquantitatively, for broadband very low frequency emissions from lightning. Approximate ground-truthing of the incident wavefields in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide is provided by the World Wide Lightning Location Network. Observations of the wavefields at the satellite are provided by the Vector Electric Field Instrument aboard the satellite. The data set comprises whistler observations with the satellite at magnetic latitudes <26°. Thus, our conclusions, too, must be limited to the near-equatorial region and are not necessarily predictive of midlatitude whistler properties. We find that in most broadband recordings of radio waves at the satellite, very few of the lightning strokes result in a detectable radio pulse at the satellite. However, in a minority of the recordings, there is enhanced transmission of very low frequency lightning emissions through the D layer, at a level exceeding model predictions by at least an order of magnitude. We show that kilometric-scale D-layer irregularities may be implicated in the enhanced transmission. This observation of sporadic enhancements at low magnetic latitude, made with broadband lightning emissions, is consistent with an earlier review of D-layer transmission for transmission from powerful man-made radio beacons.

A Critical Assessment of Combined Ligand-based and Structure-based Approaches to hERG Channel Blocker Modeling

PubMed Central

Du-Cuny, Lei; Chen, Lu; Zhang, Shuxing

2014-01-01

Blockade of hERG channel prolongs the duration of the cardiac action potential and is a common reason for drug failure in preclinical safety trials. Therefore, it is of great importance to develop robust in silico tools to predict potential hERG blockers in the early stages of drug discovery and development. Herein we described comprehensive approaches to assess the discrimination of hERG-active and -inactive compounds by combining QSAR modeling, pharmacophore analysis, and molecular docking. Our consensus models demonstrated high predictive capacity and improved enrichment, and they could correctly classify 91.8% of 147 hERG blockers from 351 inactives. To further enhance our modeling effort, hERG homology models were constructed and molecular docking studies were conducted, resulting in high correlations (R2=0.81) between predicted and experimental binding affinities. We expect our unique models can be applied to efficient screening for hERG blockades, and our extensive understanding of the hERG-inhibitor interactions will facilitate the rational design of drugs devoid of hERG channel activity and hence with reduced cardiac toxicities. PMID:21902220

Environmental and Socio-Demographic Determinants of Dengue Fever in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tipre, Meghan; Luvall, Jeffrey; Haque, Akhlaque; McClure, Leslie; Zaitchik, Ben; Sathiakumar, Nalini

2014-01-01

Dengue fever has increased exponentially in Sri Lanka, from 24.4 cases per 100,000 in 2003 to 165.3 per 100,000 population in 2013. Although early warning systems using predictor models have been previously developed in other settings, it is important to develop such models in each local setting. Further, the ability of these models to be applicable at smaller geographic units will enhance current vector control and disease surveillance measures. The aim of this paper was to identify environmental and socio-economic status (SES) risk factors that may predict dengue fever at the Gram Niladhari Divisions (GND) level (smallest administrative unit) in Colombo city, Sri Lanka. These factors included landcover classes, amount of vegetation, population density, water access and neighborhood SES as determined by roof type. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to develop the prediction model. A total 55 GND units covering an area of 37 sq km were investigated. We found that GND units with decreased vegetation, higher built-up area, higher population density and poor access to tap-water supply were associated with high risk of dengue; the pertinent GND units were concentrated in the center of the city. This is the first study in Sri Lanka to include both environmental and socio-demographic factors in prediction models for dengue fever. The methodology may be useful in enhancing ongoing dengue fever control measures in the country, and to be extended to other countries in the region that have an increasing incidence of dengue fever.

Review of electronic transport models for thermoelectric materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulusu, A.; Walker, D. G.

2008-07-01

Thermoelectric devices have gained importance in recent years as viable solutions for applications such as spot cooling of electronic components, remote power generation in space stations and satellites etc. These solid-state devices have long been known for their reliability rather than their efficiency; they contain no moving parts, and their performance relies primarily on material selection, which has not generated many excellent candidates. Research in recent years has been focused on developing both thermoelectric structures and materials that have high efficiency. In general, thermoelectric research is two-pronged with (1) experiments focused on finding new materials and structures with enhanced thermoelectric performance and (2) analytical models that predict thermoelectric behavior to enable better design and optimization of materials and structures. While numerous reviews have discussed the importance of and dependence on materials for thermoelectric performance, an overview of how to predict the performance of various materials and structures based on fundamental quantities is lacking. In this paper we present a review of the theoretical models that were developed since thermoelectricity was first observed in 1821 by Seebeck and how these models have guided experimental material search for improved thermoelectric devices. A new quantum model is also presented, which provides opportunities for the optimization of nanoscale materials to enhance thermoelectric performance.

Turbulent convection in microchannels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Thomas Mcdaniel

1998-10-01

Single-phase forced convection in microchannels is an effective cooling mechanism capable of accommodating the high heat fluxes encountered in fission reactor cores, accelerator targets, microelectronic heat sinks and micro-heat exchangers. Traditional Nusselt type correlations, however, have generally been obtained using data from channels with hydraulic diameters >2 cm. Application of such relationships to microchannels is therefore questionable. A diameter limit below which traditional correlations are invalid had not been established. The objective of this investigation was to systematically address the effect of small hydraulic diameter on turbulent single-phase forced convection of water. A number of microchannels having hydraulic diameters ranging from 0.76 to 1.13 mm were constructed and tested over a wide range of flow rates and heat fluxes. Experimentally obtained Nusselt numbers were significantly higher than the values predicted by the Gnielinski correlation for large channels, the effect of decreasing diameter being to further increase heat transfer enhancement. A working correlation predicting the heat transfer enhancement for turbulent convection in microchannels was developed. The correlation predicts the lower diameter limit below which traditional correlations are no longer valid to be approximately 1.2 mm. Of further interest was the effect of the desorption of noncondensable gases dissolved in the water on turbulent convection. In large channels noncondensables undergo little desorption and their effect is negligible. The large pressure drops coupled with large temperature increases for high heat fluxes in microchannels, however, leads to a two-phase, two-component flow thereby enhancing heat transfer coefficients above their liquid- only values. A detailed mathematical model was developed to predict the resulting void fractions and liquid- coolant accelerations due to the desorption of noncondensables in microchannels. Experiments were also performed to compare heat transfer coefficients for fully-degassed water to water saturated with air at test section inlet conditions. The data showed significant heat transfer enhancement for the air-saturated case over the fully-degassed case. The degree of enhancement was greatly under-predicted by current two-phase, two- component heat transfer correlations.

Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.

2016-01-01

Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

Improving access to geriatric mental health services: a randomized trial comparing treatment engagement with integrated versus enhanced referral care for depression, anxiety, and at-risk alcohol use.

PubMed

Bartels, Stephen J; Coakley, Eugenie H; Zubritsky, Cynthia; Ware, James H; Miles, Keith M; Areán, Patricia A; Chen, Hongtu; Oslin, David W; Llorente, Maria D; Costantino, Giuseppe; Quijano, Louise; McIntyre, Jack S; Linkins, Karen W; Oxman, Thomas E; Maxwell, James; Levkoff, Sue E

2004-08-01

The authors sought to determine whether integrated mental health services or enhanced referral to specialty mental health clinics results in greater engagement in mental health/substance abuse services by older primary care patients. This multisite randomized trial included 10 sites consisting of primary care and specialty mental health/substance abuse clinics. Primary care patients 65 years old or older (N=24,930) were screened. The final study group consisted of 2,022 patients (mean age=73.5 years; 26% female; 48% ethnic minority) with depression (N=1,390), anxiety (N=70), at-risk alcohol use (N=414), or dual diagnosis (N=148) who were randomly assigned to integrated care (mental health and substance abuse providers co-located in primary care; N=999) or enhanced referral to specialty mental health/substance abuse clinics (i.e., facilitated scheduling, transportation, payment; N=1,023). Seventy-one percent of patients engaged in treatment in the integrated model compared with 49% in the enhanced referral model. Integrated care was associated with more mental health and substance abuse visits per patient (mean=3.04) relative to enhanced referral (mean=1.91). Overall, greater engagement was predicted by integrated care and higher mental distress. For depression, greater engagement was predicted by integrated care and more severe depression. For at-risk alcohol users, greater engagement was predicted by integrated care and more severe problem drinking. For all conditions, greater engagement was associated with closer proximity of mental health/substance abuse services to primary care. Older primary care patients are more likely to accept collaborative mental health treatment within primary care than in mental health/substance abuse clinics. These results suggest that integrated service arrangements improve access to mental health and substance abuse services for older adults who underuse these services.

New Integrated Modeling Capabilities: MIDAS' Recent Behavioral Enhancements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gore, Brian F.; Jarvis, Peter A.

2005-01-01

The Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) is an integrated human performance modeling software tool that is based on mechanisms that underlie and cause human behavior. A PC-Windows version of MIDAS has been created that integrates the anthropometric character "Jack (TM)" with MIDAS' validated perceptual and attention mechanisms. MIDAS now models multiple simulated humans engaging in goal-related behaviors. New capabilities include the ability to predict situations in which errors and/or performance decrements are likely due to a variety of factors including concurrent workload and performance influencing factors (PIFs). This paper describes a new model that predicts the effects of microgravity on a mission specialist's performance, and its first application to simulating the task of conducting a Life Sciences experiment in space according to a sequential or parallel schedule of performance.