Sample records for ensemble average method
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Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.
2015-01-01
Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.
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Multimodel Ensemble Methods for Prediction of Wake-Vortex Transport and Decay Originating NASA
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Korner, Stephan; Ahmad, Nashat N.; Holzapfel, Frank; VanValkenburg, Randal L.
2017-01-01
Several multimodel ensemble methods are selected and further developed to improve the deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of individual wake-vortex transport and decay models. The different multimodel ensemble methods are introduced, and their suitability for wake applications is demonstrated. The selected methods include direct ensemble averaging, Bayesian model averaging, and Monte Carlo simulation. The different methodologies are evaluated employing data from wake-vortex field measurement campaigns conducted in the United States and Germany.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.
2016-12-01
Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling
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A method for determining the weak statistical stationarity of a random process
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sadeh, W. Z.; Koper, C. A., Jr.
1978-01-01
A method for determining the weak statistical stationarity of a random process is presented. The core of this testing procedure consists of generating an equivalent ensemble which approximates a true ensemble. Formation of an equivalent ensemble is accomplished through segmenting a sufficiently long time history of a random process into equal, finite, and statistically independent sample records. The weak statistical stationarity is ascertained based on the time invariance of the equivalent-ensemble averages. Comparison of these averages with their corresponding time averages over a single sample record leads to a heuristic estimate of the ergodicity of a random process. Specific variance tests are introduced for evaluating the statistical independence of the sample records, the time invariance of the equivalent-ensemble autocorrelations, and the ergodicity. Examination and substantiation of these procedures were conducted utilizing turbulent velocity signals.
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An interplanetary magnetic field ensemble at 1 AU
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Matthaeus, W. H.; Goldstein, M. L.; King, J. H.
1985-01-01
A method for calculation ensemble averages from magnetic field data is described. A data set comprising approximately 16 months of nearly continuous ISEE-3 magnetic field data is used in this study. Individual subintervals of this data, ranging from 15 hours to 15.6 days comprise the ensemble. The sole condition for including each subinterval in the averages is the degree to which it represents a weakly time-stationary process. Averages obtained by this method are appropriate for a turbulence description of the interplanetary medium. The ensemble average correlation length obtained from all subintervals is found to be 4.9 x 10 to the 11th cm. The average value of the variances of the magnetic field components are in the approximate ratio 8:9:10, where the third component is the local mean field direction. The correlation lengths and variances are found to have a systematic variation with subinterval duration, reflecting the important role of low-frequency fluctuations in the interplanetary medium.
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Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled GCM Using the Adaptive Spatial Average Method
Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...
2014-05-29
Ensemble-based parameter estimation for a climate model is emerging as an important topic in climate research. And for a complex system such as a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, the sensitivity and response of a model variable to a model parameter could vary spatially and temporally. An adaptive spatial average (ASA) algorithm is proposed to increase the efficiency of parameter estimation. Refined from a previous spatial average method, the ASA uses the ensemble spread as the criterion for selecting “good” values from the spatially varying posterior estimated parameter values; these good values are then averaged to give the final globalmore » uniform posterior parameter. In comparison with existing methods, the ASA parameter estimation has a superior performance: faster convergence and enhanced signal-to-noise ratio.« less
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Ensemble Sampling vs. Time Sampling in Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Thermal Conductivity
Gordiz, Kiarash; Singh, David J.; Henry, Asegun
2015-01-29
In this report we compare time sampling and ensemble averaging as two different methods available for phase space sampling. For the comparison, we calculate thermal conductivities of solid argon and silicon structures, using equilibrium molecular dynamics. We introduce two different schemes for the ensemble averaging approach, and show that both can reduce the total simulation time as compared to time averaging. It is also found that velocity rescaling is an efficient mechanism for phase space exploration. Although our methodology is tested using classical molecular dynamics, the ensemble generation approaches may find their greatest utility in computationally expensive simulations such asmore » first principles molecular dynamics. For such simulations, where each time step is costly, time sampling can require long simulation times because each time step must be evaluated sequentially and therefore phase space averaging is achieved through sequential operations. On the other hand, with ensemble averaging, phase space sampling can be achieved through parallel operations, since each ensemble is independent. For this reason, particularly when using massively parallel architectures, ensemble sampling can result in much shorter simulation times and exhibits similar overall computational effort.« less
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Quantifying rapid changes in cardiovascular state with a moving ensemble average.
Cieslak, Matthew; Ryan, William S; Babenko, Viktoriya; Erro, Hannah; Rathbun, Zoe M; Meiring, Wendy; Kelsey, Robert M; Blascovich, Jim; Grafton, Scott T
2018-04-01
MEAP, the moving ensemble analysis pipeline, is a new open-source tool designed to perform multisubject preprocessing and analysis of cardiovascular data, including electrocardiogram (ECG), impedance cardiogram (ICG), and continuous blood pressure (BP). In addition to traditional ensemble averaging, MEAP implements a moving ensemble averaging method that allows for the continuous estimation of indices related to cardiovascular state, including cardiac output, preejection period, heart rate variability, and total peripheral resistance, among others. Here, we define the moving ensemble technique mathematically, highlighting its differences from fixed-window ensemble averaging. We describe MEAP's interface and features for signal processing, artifact correction, and cardiovascular-based fMRI analysis. We demonstrate the accuracy of MEAP's novel B point detection algorithm on a large collection of hand-labeled ICG waveforms. As a proof of concept, two subjects completed a series of four physical and cognitive tasks (cold pressor, Valsalva maneuver, video game, random dot kinetogram) on 3 separate days while ECG, ICG, and BP were recorded. Critically, the moving ensemble method reliably captures the rapid cyclical cardiovascular changes related to the baroreflex during the Valsalva maneuver and the classic cold pressor response. Cardiovascular measures were seen to vary considerably within repetitions of the same cognitive task for each individual, suggesting that a carefully designed paradigm could be used to capture fast-acting event-related changes in cardiovascular state. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oh, Seok-Geun; Suh, Myoung-Seok
2017-07-01
The projection skills of five ensemble methods were analyzed according to simulation skills, training period, and ensemble members, using 198 sets of pseudo-simulation data (PSD) produced by random number generation assuming the simulated temperature of regional climate models. The PSD sets were classified into 18 categories according to the relative magnitude of bias, variance ratio, and correlation coefficient, where each category had 11 sets (including 1 truth set) with 50 samples. The ensemble methods used were as follows: equal weighted averaging without bias correction (EWA_NBC), EWA with bias correction (EWA_WBC), weighted ensemble averaging based on root mean square errors and correlation (WEA_RAC), WEA based on the Taylor score (WEA_Tay), and multivariate linear regression (Mul_Reg). The projection skills of the ensemble methods improved generally as compared with the best member for each category. However, their projection skills are significantly affected by the simulation skills of the ensemble member. The weighted ensemble methods showed better projection skills than non-weighted methods, in particular, for the PSD categories having systematic biases and various correlation coefficients. The EWA_NBC showed considerably lower projection skills than the other methods, in particular, for the PSD categories with systematic biases. Although Mul_Reg showed relatively good skills, it showed strong sensitivity to the PSD categories, training periods, and number of members. On the other hand, the WEA_Tay and WEA_RAC showed relatively superior skills in both the accuracy and reliability for all the sensitivity experiments. This indicates that WEA_Tay and WEA_RAC are applicable even for simulation data with systematic biases, a short training period, and a small number of ensemble members.
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Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting.
Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen
2015-12-28
We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.
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Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen
2015-12-01
We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.
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Post-processing method for wind speed ensemble forecast using wind speed and direction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sofie Eide, Siri; Bjørnar Bremnes, John; Steinsland, Ingelin
2017-04-01
Statistical methods are widely applied to enhance the quality of both deterministic and ensemble NWP forecasts. In many situations, like wind speed forecasting, most of the predictive information is contained in one variable in the NWP models. However, in statistical calibration of deterministic forecasts it is often seen that including more variables can further improve forecast skill. For ensembles this is rarely taken advantage of, mainly due to that it is generally not straightforward how to include multiple variables. In this study, it is demonstrated how multiple variables can be included in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) by using a flexible regression method for estimating the conditional means. The method is applied to wind speed forecasting at 204 Norwegian stations based on wind speed and direction forecasts from the ECMWF ensemble system. At about 85 % of the sites the ensemble forecasts were improved in terms of CRPS by adding wind direction as predictor compared to only using wind speed. On average the improvements were about 5 %, but mainly for moderate to strong wind situations. For weak wind speeds adding wind direction had more or less neutral impact.
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Elsawy, Amr S; Eldawlatly, Seif; Taher, Mohamed; Aly, Gamal M
2014-01-01
The current trend to use Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) with mobile devices mandates the development of efficient EEG data processing methods. In this paper, we demonstrate the performance of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ensemble classifier for P300-based spellers. We recorded EEG data from multiple subjects using the Emotiv neuroheadset in the context of a classical oddball P300 speller paradigm. We compare the performance of the proposed ensemble classifier to the performance of traditional feature extraction and classifier methods. Our results demonstrate the capability of the PCA ensemble classifier to classify P300 data recorded using the Emotiv neuroheadset with an average accuracy of 86.29% on cross-validation data. In addition, offline testing of the recorded data reveals an average classification accuracy of 73.3% that is significantly higher than that achieved using traditional methods. Finally, we demonstrate the effect of the parameters of the P300 speller paradigm on the performance of the method.
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Training set extension for SVM ensemble in P300-speller with familiar face paradigm.
Li, Qi; Shi, Kaiyang; Gao, Ning; Li, Jian; Bai, Ou
2018-03-27
P300-spellers are brain-computer interface (BCI)-based character input systems. Support vector machine (SVM) ensembles are trained with large-scale training sets and used as classifiers in these systems. However, the required large-scale training data necessitate a prolonged collection time for each subject, which results in data collected toward the end of the period being contaminated by the subject's fatigue. This study aimed to develop a method for acquiring more training data based on a collected small training set. A new method was developed in which two corresponding training datasets in two sequences are superposed and averaged to extend the training set. The proposed method was tested offline on a P300-speller with the familiar face paradigm. The SVM ensemble with extended training set achieved 85% classification accuracy for the averaged results of four sequences, and 100% for 11 sequences in the P300-speller. In contrast, the conventional SVM ensemble with non-extended training set achieved only 65% accuracy for four sequences, and 92% for 11 sequences. The SVM ensemble with extended training set achieves higher classification accuracies than the conventional SVM ensemble, which verifies that the proposed method effectively improves the classification performance of BCI P300-spellers, thus enhancing their practicality.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Colorado, G.; Salinas, J. A.; Cavazos, T.; de Grau, P.
2013-05-01
15 CMIP5 GCMs precipitation simulations were combined in a weighted ensemble using the Reliable Ensemble Averaging (REA) method, obtaining the weight of each model. This was done for a historical period (1961-2000) and for the future emissions based on low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiating forcing for the period 2075-2099. The annual cycle of simple ensemble of the historical GCMs simulations, the historical REA average and the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS3.1) database was compared in four zones of México. In the case of precipitation we can see the improvements by using the REA method, especially in the two northern zones of México where the REA average is more close to the observations (CRU) that the simple average. However in the southern zones although there is an improvement it is not as good as it is in the north, particularly in the southeast where instead of the REA average is able to reproduce qualitatively good the annual cycle with the mid-summer drought it was greatly underestimated. The main reason is because the precipitation is underestimated for all the models and the mid-summer drought do not even exists in some models. In the REA average of the future scenarios, as we can expected, the most drastic decrease in precipitation was simulated using the RCP8.5 especially in the monsoon area and in the south of Mexico in summer and in winter. In the center and southern of Mexico however, the same scenario in autumn simulates an increase of precipitation.
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Wu, Xiongwu; Damjanovic, Ana; Brooks, Bernard R.
2013-01-01
This review provides a comprehensive description of the self-guided Langevin dynamics (SGLD) and the self-guided molecular dynamics (SGMD) methods and their applications. Example systems are included to provide guidance on optimal application of these methods in simulation studies. SGMD/SGLD has enhanced ability to overcome energy barriers and accelerate rare events to affordable time scales. It has been demonstrated that with moderate parameters, SGLD can routinely cross energy barriers of 20 kT at a rate that molecular dynamics (MD) or Langevin dynamics (LD) crosses 10 kT barriers. The core of these methods is the use of local averages of forces and momenta in a direct manner that can preserve the canonical ensemble. The use of such local averages results in methods where low frequency motion “borrows” energy from high frequency degrees of freedom when a barrier is approached and then returns that excess energy after a barrier is crossed. This self-guiding effect also results in an accelerated diffusion to enhance conformational sampling efficiency. The resulting ensemble with SGLD deviates in a small way from the canonical ensemble, and that deviation can be corrected with either an on-the-fly or a post processing reweighting procedure that provides an excellent canonical ensemble for systems with a limited number of accelerated degrees of freedom. Since reweighting procedures are generally not size extensive, a newer method, SGLDfp, uses local averages of both momenta and forces to preserve the ensemble without reweighting. The SGLDfp approach is size extensive and can be used to accelerate low frequency motion in large systems, or in systems with explicit solvent where solvent diffusion is also to be enhanced. Since these methods are direct and straightforward, they can be used in conjunction with many other sampling methods or free energy methods by simply replacing the integration of degrees of freedom that are normally sampled by MD or LD. PMID:23913991
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Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification
2016-01-01
Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost. PMID:27725828
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pollard, David; Chang, Won; Haran, Murali; Applegate, Patrick; DeConto, Robert
2016-05-01
A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ˜ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ortoleva, Peter J.
Illustrative embodiments of systems and methods for the deductive multiscale simulation of macromolecules are disclosed. In one illustrative embodiment, a deductive multiscale simulation method may include (i) constructing a set of order parameters that model one or more structural characteristics of a macromolecule, (ii) simulating an ensemble of atomistic configurations for the macromolecule using instantaneous values of the set of order parameters, (iii) simulating thermal-average forces and diffusivities for the ensemble of atomistic configurations, and (iv) evolving the set of order parameters via Langevin dynamics using the thermal-average forces and diffusivities.
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Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.
2009-01-01
An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.
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Creating "Intelligent" Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, Noel; Taylor, Patrick
2014-05-01
The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is used to add value to individual model projections and construct a consensus projection. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, individual models reproduce certain climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. The intention is to produce improved ("intelligent") unequal-weight ensemble averages. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Several climate process metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument in combination with surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing the equal-weighted ensemble average and an ensemble weighted using the process-based metric. Additionally, this study investigates the dependence of the metric weighting scheme on the climate state using a combination of model simulations including a non-forced preindustrial control experiment, historical simulations, and several radiative forcing Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to advise better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.
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Ensemble Methods for Classification of Physical Activities from Wrist Accelerometry.
Chowdhury, Alok Kumar; Tjondronegoro, Dian; Chandran, Vinod; Trost, Stewart G
2017-09-01
To investigate whether the use of ensemble learning algorithms improve physical activity recognition accuracy compared to the single classifier algorithms, and to compare the classification accuracy achieved by three conventional ensemble machine learning methods (bagging, boosting, random forest) and a custom ensemble model comprising four algorithms commonly used for activity recognition (binary decision tree, k nearest neighbor, support vector machine, and neural network). The study used three independent data sets that included wrist-worn accelerometer data. For each data set, a four-step classification framework consisting of data preprocessing, feature extraction, normalization and feature selection, and classifier training and testing was implemented. For the custom ensemble, decisions from the single classifiers were aggregated using three decision fusion methods: weighted majority vote, naïve Bayes combination, and behavior knowledge space combination. Classifiers were cross-validated using leave-one subject out cross-validation and compared on the basis of average F1 scores. In all three data sets, ensemble learning methods consistently outperformed the individual classifiers. Among the conventional ensemble methods, random forest models provided consistently high activity recognition; however, the custom ensemble model using weighted majority voting demonstrated the highest classification accuracy in two of the three data sets. Combining multiple individual classifiers using conventional or custom ensemble learning methods can improve activity recognition accuracy from wrist-worn accelerometer data.
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Confidence-based ensemble for GBM brain tumor segmentation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huo, Jing; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Okada, Kazunori; Kim, Hyun J.; Pope, Whitney; Goldin, Jonathan; Brown, Matthew
2011-03-01
It is a challenging task to automatically segment glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumors on T1w post-contrast isotropic MR images. A semi-automated system using fuzzy connectedness has recently been developed for computing the tumor volume that reduces the cost of manual annotation. In this study, we propose a an ensemble method that combines multiple segmentation results into a final ensemble one. The method is evaluated on a dataset of 20 cases from a multi-center pharmaceutical drug trial and compared to the fuzzy connectedness method. Three individual methods were used in the framework: fuzzy connectedness, GrowCut, and voxel classification. The combination method is a confidence map averaging (CMA) method. The CMA method shows an improved ROC curve compared to the fuzzy connectedness method (p < 0.001). The CMA ensemble result is more robust compared to the three individual methods.
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Wang, Xueyi; Davidson, Nicholas J.
2011-01-01
Ensemble methods have been widely used to improve prediction accuracy over individual classifiers. In this paper, we achieve a few results about the prediction accuracies of ensemble methods for binary classification that are missed or misinterpreted in previous literature. First we show the upper and lower bounds of the prediction accuracies (i.e. the best and worst possible prediction accuracies) of ensemble methods. Next we show that an ensemble method can achieve > 0.5 prediction accuracy, while individual classifiers have < 0.5 prediction accuracies. Furthermore, for individual classifiers with different prediction accuracies, the average of the individual accuracies determines the upper and lower bounds. We perform two experiments to verify the results and show that it is hard to achieve the upper and lower bounds accuracies by random individual classifiers and better algorithms need to be developed. PMID:21853162
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van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Cairns, Brian
2017-01-01
The use of ensemble-average values of aspect ratio and distortion parameter of hexagonal ice prisms for the estimation of ensemble-average scattering asymmetry parameters is evaluated. Using crystal aspect ratios greater than unity generally leads to ensemble-average values of aspect ratio that are inconsistent with the ensemble-average asymmetry parameters. When a definition of aspect ratio is used that limits the aspect ratio to below unity (α≤1) for both hexagonal plates and columns, the effective asymmetry parameters calculated using ensemble-average aspect ratios are generally consistent with ensemble-average asymmetry parameters, especially if aspect ratios are geometrically averaged. Ensemble-average distortion parameters generally also yield effective asymmetry parameters that are largely consistent with ensemble-average asymmetry parameters. In the case of mixtures of plates and columns, it is recommended to geometrically average the α≤1 aspect ratios and to subsequently calculate the effective asymmetry parameter using a column or plate geometry when the contribution by columns to a given mixture’s total projected area is greater or lower than 50%, respectively. In addition, we show that ensemble-average aspect ratios, distortion parameters and asymmetry parameters can generally be retrieved accurately from simulated multi-directional polarization measurements based on mixtures of varying columns and plates. However, such retrievals tend to be somewhat biased toward yielding column-like aspect ratios. Furthermore, generally large retrieval errors can occur for mixtures with approximately equal contributions of columns and plates and for ensembles with strong contributions of thin plates. PMID:28983127
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The total probabilities from high-resolution ensemble forecasting of floods
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian
2015-04-01
Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used in meteorological modelling, to give an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. As meteorological ensemble forecasts often show some bias and dispersion errors, there is a need for calibration and post-processing of the ensembles. Typical methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). To make optimal predictions of floods along the stream network in hydrology, we can easily use the ensemble members as input to the hydrological models. However, some of the post-processing methods will need modifications when regionalizing the forecasts outside the calibration locations, as done by Hemri et al. (2013). We present a method for spatial regionalization of the post-processed forecasts based on EMOS and top-kriging (Skøien et al., 2006). We will also look into different methods for handling the non-normality of runoff and the effect on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005. Skøien, J. O., Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: Top-kriging - Geostatistics on stream networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10(2), 277-287, 2006.
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2008073000 2008072900 2008072800 Background information bias reduction = ( | domain-averaged ensemble mean bias | - | domain-averaged bias-corrected ensemble mean bias | / | domain-averaged bias-corrected ensemble mean bias | NAEFS Products | NAEFS | EMC Ensemble Products EMC | NCEP | National Weather Service
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Application Bayesian Model Averaging method for ensemble system for Poland
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guzikowski, Jakub; Czerwinska, Agnieszka
2014-05-01
The aim of the project is to evaluate methods for generating numerical ensemble weather prediction using a meteorological data from The Weather Research & Forecasting Model and calibrating this data by means of Bayesian Model Averaging (WRF BMA) approach. We are constructing height resolution short range ensemble forecasts using meteorological data (temperature) generated by nine WRF's models. WRF models have 35 vertical levels and 2.5 km x 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The main emphasis is that the used ensemble members has a different parameterization of the physical phenomena occurring in the boundary layer. To calibrate an ensemble forecast we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. The BMA predictive Probability Density Function (PDF) is a weighted average of predictive PDFs associated with each individual ensemble member, with weights that reflect the member's relative skill. For test we chose a case with heat wave and convective weather conditions in Poland area from 23th July to 1st August 2013. From 23th July to 29th July 2013 temperature oscillated below or above 30 Celsius degree in many meteorology stations and new temperature records were added. During this time the growth of the hospitalized patients with cardiovascular system problems was registered. On 29th July 2013 an advection of moist tropical air masses was recorded in the area of Poland causes strong convection event with mesoscale convection system (MCS). MCS caused local flooding, damage to the transport infrastructure, destroyed buildings, trees and injuries and direct threat of life. Comparison of the meteorological data from ensemble system with the data recorded on 74 weather stations localized in Poland is made. We prepare a set of the model - observations pairs. Then, the obtained data from single ensemble members and median from WRF BMA system are evaluated on the basis of the deterministic statistical error Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE). To evaluation probabilistic data The Brier Score (BS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) were used. Finally comparison between BMA calibrated data and data from ensemble members will be displayed.
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Similarity Measures for Protein Ensembles
Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper
2009-01-01
Analyses of similarities and changes in protein conformation can provide important information regarding protein function and evolution. Many scores, including the commonly used root mean square deviation, have therefore been developed to quantify the similarities of different protein conformations. However, instead of examining individual conformations it is in many cases more relevant to analyse ensembles of conformations that have been obtained either through experiments or from methods such as molecular dynamics simulations. We here present three approaches that can be used to compare conformational ensembles in the same way as the root mean square deviation is used to compare individual pairs of structures. The methods are based on the estimation of the probability distributions underlying the ensembles and subsequent comparison of these distributions. We first validate the methods using a synthetic example from molecular dynamics simulations. We then apply the algorithms to revisit the problem of ensemble averaging during structure determination of proteins, and find that an ensemble refinement method is able to recover the correct distribution of conformations better than standard single-molecule refinement. PMID:19145244
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Enhanced Sampling in the Well-Tempered Ensemble
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonomi, M.; Parrinello, M.
2010-05-01
We introduce the well-tempered ensemble (WTE) which is the biased ensemble sampled by well-tempered metadynamics when the energy is used as collective variable. WTE can be designed so as to have approximately the same average energy as the canonical ensemble but much larger fluctuations. These two properties lead to an extremely fast exploration of phase space. An even greater efficiency is obtained when WTE is combined with parallel tempering. Unbiased Boltzmann averages are computed on the fly by a recently developed reweighting method [M. Bonomi , J. Comput. Chem. 30, 1615 (2009)JCCHDD0192-865110.1002/jcc.21305]. We apply WTE and its parallel tempering variant to the 2d Ising model and to a Gō model of HIV protease, demonstrating in these two representative cases that convergence is accelerated by orders of magnitude.
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Enhanced sampling in the well-tempered ensemble.
Bonomi, M; Parrinello, M
2010-05-14
We introduce the well-tempered ensemble (WTE) which is the biased ensemble sampled by well-tempered metadynamics when the energy is used as collective variable. WTE can be designed so as to have approximately the same average energy as the canonical ensemble but much larger fluctuations. These two properties lead to an extremely fast exploration of phase space. An even greater efficiency is obtained when WTE is combined with parallel tempering. Unbiased Boltzmann averages are computed on the fly by a recently developed reweighting method [M. Bonomi, J. Comput. Chem. 30, 1615 (2009)]. We apply WTE and its parallel tempering variant to the 2d Ising model and to a Gō model of HIV protease, demonstrating in these two representative cases that convergence is accelerated by orders of magnitude.
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2008112500 2008112400 Background information bias reduction = ( | domain-averaged ensemble mean bias | - | domain-averaged bias-corrected ensemble mean bias | / | domain-averaged bias-corrected ensemble mean bias
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Girsanov reweighting for path ensembles and Markov state models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Donati, L.; Hartmann, C.; Keller, B. G.
2017-06-01
The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor "on the fly" during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.
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Weak ergodicity breaking, irreproducibility, and ageing in anomalous diffusion processes
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Metzler, Ralf
2014-01-14
Single particle traces are standardly evaluated in terms of time averages of the second moment of the position time series r(t). For ergodic processes, one can interpret such results in terms of the known theories for the corresponding ensemble averaged quantities. In anomalous diffusion processes, that are widely observed in nature over many orders of magnitude, the equivalence between (long) time and ensemble averages may be broken (weak ergodicity breaking), and these time averages may no longer be interpreted in terms of ensemble theories. Here we detail some recent results on weakly non-ergodic systems with respect to the time averagedmore » mean squared displacement, the inherent irreproducibility of individual measurements, and methods to determine the exact underlying stochastic process. We also address the phenomenon of ageing, the dependence of physical observables on the time span between initial preparation of the system and the start of the measurement.« less
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Upgrades to the REA method for producing probabilistic climate change projections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo
2010-05-01
We present an augmented version of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method designed to generate probabilistic climate change information from ensembles of climate model simulations. Compared to the original version, the augmented one includes consideration of multiple variables and statistics in the calculation of the performance-based weights. In addition, the model convergence criterion previously employed is removed. The method is applied to the calculation of changes in mean and variability for temperature and precipitation over different sub-regions of East Asia based on the recently completed CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. Comparison of the new and old REA methods, along with the simple averaging procedure, and the use of different combinations of performance metrics shows that at fine sub-regional scales the choice of weighting is relevant. This is mostly because the models show a substantial spread in performance for the simulation of precipitation statistics, a result that supports the use of model weighting as a useful option to account for wide ranges of quality of models. The REA method, and in particular the upgraded one, provides a simple and flexible framework for assessing the uncertainty related to the aggregation of results from ensembles of models in order to produce climate change information at the regional scale. KEY WORDS: REA method, Climate change, CMIP3
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Simulation studies of the fidelity of biomolecular structure ensemble recreation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lätzer, Joachim; Eastwood, Michael P.; Wolynes, Peter G.
2006-12-01
We examine the ability of Bayesian methods to recreate structural ensembles for partially folded molecules from averaged data. Specifically we test the ability of various algorithms to recreate different transition state ensembles for folding proteins using a multiple replica simulation algorithm using input from "gold standard" reference ensembles that were first generated with a Gō-like Hamiltonian having nonpairwise additive terms. A set of low resolution data, which function as the "experimental" ϕ values, were first constructed from this reference ensemble. The resulting ϕ values were then treated as one would treat laboratory experimental data and were used as input in the replica reconstruction algorithm. The resulting ensembles of structures obtained by the replica algorithm were compared to the gold standard reference ensemble, from which those "data" were, in fact, obtained. It is found that for a unimodal transition state ensemble with a low barrier, the multiple replica algorithm does recreate the reference ensemble fairly successfully when no experimental error is assumed. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test as well as principal component analysis show that the overlap of the recovered and reference ensembles is significantly enhanced when multiple replicas are used. Reduction of the multiple replica ensembles by clustering successfully yields subensembles with close similarity to the reference ensembles. On the other hand, for a high barrier transition state with two distinct transition state ensembles, the single replica algorithm only samples a few structures of one of the reference ensemble basins. This is due to the fact that the ϕ values are intrinsically ensemble averaged quantities. The replica algorithm with multiple copies does sample both reference ensemble basins. In contrast to the single replica case, the multiple replicas are constrained to reproduce the average ϕ values, but allow fluctuations in ϕ for each individual copy. These fluctuations facilitate a more faithful sampling of the reference ensemble basins. Finally, we test how robustly the reconstruction algorithm can function by introducing errors in ϕ comparable in magnitude to those suggested by some authors. In this circumstance we observe that the chances of ensemble recovery with the replica algorithm are poor using a single replica, but are improved when multiple copies are used. A multimodal transition state ensemble, however, turns out to be more sensitive to large errors in ϕ (if appropriately gauged) and attempts at successful recreation of the reference ensemble with simple replica algorithms can fall short.
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Haberman, Jason; Brady, Timothy F; Alvarez, George A
2015-04-01
Ensemble perception, including the ability to "see the average" from a group of items, operates in numerous feature domains (size, orientation, speed, facial expression, etc.). Although the ubiquity of ensemble representations is well established, the large-scale cognitive architecture of this process remains poorly defined. We address this using an individual differences approach. In a series of experiments, observers saw groups of objects and reported either a single item from the group or the average of the entire group. High-level ensemble representations (e.g., average facial expression) showed complete independence from low-level ensemble representations (e.g., average orientation). In contrast, low-level ensemble representations (e.g., orientation and color) were correlated with each other, but not with high-level ensemble representations (e.g., facial expression and person identity). These results suggest that there is not a single domain-general ensemble mechanism, and that the relationship among various ensemble representations depends on how proximal they are in representational space. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
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Creating "Intelligent" Climate Model Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, N. C.; Taylor, P. C.
2014-12-01
The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.
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Lee, Hyunwoo; Lee, Hana; Whang, Mincheol
2018-01-15
Continuous cardiac monitoring has been developed to evaluate cardiac activity outside of clinical environments due to the advancement of novel instruments. Seismocardiography (SCG) is one of the vital components that could develop such a monitoring system. Although SCG has been presented with a lower accuracy, this novel cardiac indicator has been steadily proposed over traditional methods such as electrocardiography (ECG). Thus, it is necessary to develop an enhanced method by combining the significant cardiac indicators. In this study, the six-axis signals of accelerometer and gyroscope were measured and integrated by the L2 normalization and multi-dimensional kineticardiography (MKCG) approaches, respectively. The waveforms of accelerometer and gyroscope were standardized and combined via ensemble averaging, and the heart rate was calculated from the dominant frequency. Thirty participants (15 females) were asked to stand or sit in relaxed and aroused conditions. Their SCG was measured during the task. As a result, proposed method showed higher accuracy than traditional SCG methods in all measurement conditions. The three main contributions are as follows: (1) the ensemble averaging enhanced heart rate estimation with the benefits of the six-axis signals; (2) the proposed method was compared with the previous SCG method that employs fewer-axis; and (3) the method was tested in various measurement conditions for a more practical application.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew
2018-02-01
Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP)
business as usual
emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.
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Creation of the BMA ensemble for SST using a parallel processing technique
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Kwangjin; Lee, Yang Won
2013-10-01
Despite the same purpose, each satellite product has different value because of its inescapable uncertainty. Also the satellite products have been calculated for a long time, and the kinds of the products are various and enormous. So the efforts for reducing the uncertainty and dealing with enormous data will be necessary. In this paper, we create an ensemble Sea Surface Temperature (SST) using MODIS Aqua, MODIS Terra and COMS (Communication Ocean and Meteorological Satellite). We used Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) as ensemble method. The principle of the BMA is synthesizing the conditional probability density function (PDF) using posterior probability as weight. The posterior probability is estimated using EM algorithm. The BMA PDF is obtained by weighted average. As the result, the ensemble SST showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, which proves the applicability of BMA for satellite data ensemble. As future work, parallel processing techniques using Hadoop framework will be adopted for more efficient computation of very big satellite data.
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Statistical Ensemble of Large Eddy Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carati, Daniele; Rogers, Michael M.; Wray, Alan A.; Mansour, Nagi N. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A statistical ensemble of large eddy simulations (LES) is run simultaneously for the same flow. The information provided by the different large scale velocity fields is used to propose an ensemble averaged version of the dynamic model. This produces local model parameters that only depend on the statistical properties of the flow. An important property of the ensemble averaged dynamic procedure is that it does not require any spatial averaging and can thus be used in fully inhomogeneous flows. Also, the ensemble of LES's provides statistics of the large scale velocity that can be used for building new models for the subgrid-scale stress tensor. The ensemble averaged dynamic procedure has been implemented with various models for three flows: decaying isotropic turbulence, forced isotropic turbulence, and the time developing plane wake. It is found that the results are almost independent of the number of LES's in the statistical ensemble provided that the ensemble contains at least 16 realizations.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Efthimiou, G. C.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J. G.
2018-02-01
One of the key issues of recent research on the dispersion inside complex urban environments is the ability to predict dosage-based parameters from the puff release of an airborne material from a point source in the atmospheric boundary layer inside the built-up area. The present work addresses the question of whether the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology can be used to predict ensemble-average dosage-based parameters that are related with the puff dispersion. RANS simulations with the ADREA-HF code were, therefore, performed, where a single puff was released in each case. The present method is validated against the data sets from two wind-tunnel experiments. In each experiment, more than 200 puffs were released from which ensemble-averaged dosage-based parameters were calculated and compared to the model's predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated using scatter plots and three validation metrics: fractional bias, normalized mean square error, and factor of two. The model presented a better performance for the temporal parameters (i.e., ensemble-average times of puff arrival, peak, leaving, duration, ascent, and descent) than for the ensemble-average dosage and peak concentration. The majority of the obtained values of validation metrics were inside established acceptance limits. Based on the obtained model performance indices, the CFD-RANS methodology as implemented in the code ADREA-HF is able to predict the ensemble-average temporal quantities related to transient emissions of airborne material in urban areas within the range of the model performance acceptance criteria established in the literature. The CFD-RANS methodology as implemented in the code ADREA-HF is also able to predict the ensemble-average dosage, but the dosage results should be treated with some caution; as in one case, the observed ensemble-average dosage was under-estimated slightly more than the acceptance criteria. Ensemble-average peak concentration was systematically underpredicted by the model to a degree higher than the allowable by the acceptance criteria, in 1 of the 2 wind-tunnel experiments. The model performance depended on the positions of the examined sensors in relation to the emission source and the buildings configuration. The work presented in this paper was carried out (partly) within the scope of COST Action ES1006 "Evaluation, improvement, and guidance for the use of local-scale emergency prediction and response tools for airborne hazards in built environments".
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Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun
2017-09-01
Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.
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Sampling-based ensemble segmentation against inter-operator variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huo, Jing; Okada, Kazunori; Pope, Whitney; Brown, Matthew
2011-03-01
Inconsistency and a lack of reproducibility are commonly associated with semi-automated segmentation methods. In this study, we developed an ensemble approach to improve reproducibility and applied it to glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumor segmentation on T1-weigted contrast enhanced MR volumes. The proposed approach combines samplingbased simulations and ensemble segmentation into a single framework; it generates a set of segmentations by perturbing user initialization and user-specified internal parameters, then fuses the set of segmentations into a single consensus result. Three combination algorithms were applied: majority voting, averaging and expectation-maximization (EM). The reproducibility of the proposed framework was evaluated by a controlled experiment on 16 tumor cases from a multicenter drug trial. The ensemble framework had significantly better reproducibility than the individual base Otsu thresholding method (p<.001).
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.
2015-01-01
Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.
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Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles ...
Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each stati
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NIMEFI: gene regulatory network inference using multiple ensemble feature importance algorithms.
Ruyssinck, Joeri; Huynh-Thu, Vân Anh; Geurts, Pierre; Dhaene, Tom; Demeester, Piet; Saeys, Yvan
2014-01-01
One of the long-standing open challenges in computational systems biology is the topology inference of gene regulatory networks from high-throughput omics data. Recently, two community-wide efforts, DREAM4 and DREAM5, have been established to benchmark network inference techniques using gene expression measurements. In these challenges the overall top performer was the GENIE3 algorithm. This method decomposes the network inference task into separate regression problems for each gene in the network in which the expression values of a particular target gene are predicted using all other genes as possible predictors. Next, using tree-based ensemble methods, an importance measure for each predictor gene is calculated with respect to the target gene and a high feature importance is considered as putative evidence of a regulatory link existing between both genes. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, we generalize the regression decomposition strategy of GENIE3 to other feature importance methods. We compare the performance of support vector regression, the elastic net, random forest regression, symbolic regression and their ensemble variants in this setting to the original GENIE3 algorithm. To create the ensemble variants, we propose a subsampling approach which allows us to cast any feature selection algorithm that produces a feature ranking into an ensemble feature importance algorithm. We demonstrate that the ensemble setting is key to the network inference task, as only ensemble variants achieve top performance. As second contribution, we explore the effect of using rankwise averaged predictions of multiple ensemble algorithms as opposed to only one. We name this approach NIMEFI (Network Inference using Multiple Ensemble Feature Importance algorithms) and show that this approach outperforms all individual methods in general, although on a specific network a single method can perform better. An implementation of NIMEFI has been made publicly available.
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Zhang, Li; Ai, Haixin; Chen, Wen; Yin, Zimo; Hu, Huan; Zhu, Junfeng; Zhao, Jian; Zhao, Qi; Liu, Hongsheng
2017-05-18
Carcinogenicity refers to a highly toxic end point of certain chemicals, and has become an important issue in the drug development process. In this study, three novel ensemble classification models, namely Ensemble SVM, Ensemble RF, and Ensemble XGBoost, were developed to predict carcinogenicity of chemicals using seven types of molecular fingerprints and three machine learning methods based on a dataset containing 1003 diverse compounds with rat carcinogenicity. Among these three models, Ensemble XGBoost is found to be the best, giving an average accuracy of 70.1 ± 2.9%, sensitivity of 67.0 ± 5.0%, and specificity of 73.1 ± 4.4% in five-fold cross-validation and an accuracy of 70.0%, sensitivity of 65.2%, and specificity of 76.5% in external validation. In comparison with some recent methods, the ensemble models outperform some machine learning-based approaches and yield equal accuracy and higher specificity but lower sensitivity than rule-based expert systems. It is also found that the ensemble models could be further improved if more data were available. As an application, the ensemble models are employed to discover potential carcinogens in the DrugBank database. The results indicate that the proposed models are helpful in predicting the carcinogenicity of chemicals. A web server called CarcinoPred-EL has been built for these models ( http://ccsipb.lnu.edu.cn/toxicity/CarcinoPred-EL/ ).
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A virtual pebble game to ensemble average graph rigidity.
González, Luis C; Wang, Hui; Livesay, Dennis R; Jacobs, Donald J
2015-01-01
The body-bar Pebble Game (PG) algorithm is commonly used to calculate network rigidity properties in proteins and polymeric materials. To account for fluctuating interactions such as hydrogen bonds, an ensemble of constraint topologies are sampled, and average network properties are obtained by averaging PG characterizations. At a simpler level of sophistication, Maxwell constraint counting (MCC) provides a rigorous lower bound for the number of internal degrees of freedom (DOF) within a body-bar network, and it is commonly employed to test if a molecular structure is globally under-constrained or over-constrained. MCC is a mean field approximation (MFA) that ignores spatial fluctuations of distance constraints by replacing the actual molecular structure by an effective medium that has distance constraints globally distributed with perfect uniform density. The Virtual Pebble Game (VPG) algorithm is a MFA that retains spatial inhomogeneity in the density of constraints on all length scales. Network fluctuations due to distance constraints that may be present or absent based on binary random dynamic variables are suppressed by replacing all possible constraint topology realizations with the probabilities that distance constraints are present. The VPG algorithm is isomorphic to the PG algorithm, where integers for counting "pebbles" placed on vertices or edges in the PG map to real numbers representing the probability to find a pebble. In the VPG, edges are assigned pebble capacities, and pebble movements become a continuous flow of probability within the network. Comparisons between the VPG and average PG results over a test set of proteins and disordered lattices demonstrate the VPG quantitatively estimates the ensemble average PG results well. The VPG performs about 20% faster than one PG, and it provides a pragmatic alternative to averaging PG rigidity characteristics over an ensemble of constraint topologies. The utility of the VPG falls in between the most accurate but slowest method of ensemble averaging over hundreds to thousands of independent PG runs, and the fastest but least accurate MCC.
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Cosmological ensemble and directional averages of observables
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bonvin, Camille; Clarkson, Chris; Durrer, Ruth
We show that at second order, ensemble averages of observables and directional averages do not commute due to gravitational lensing—observing the same thing in many directions over the sky is not the same as taking an ensemble average. In principle this non-commutativity is significant for a variety of quantities that we often use as observables and can lead to a bias in parameter estimation. We derive the relation between the ensemble average and the directional average of an observable, at second order in perturbation theory. We discuss the relevance of these two types of averages for making predictions of cosmologicalmore » observables, focusing on observables related to distances and magnitudes. In particular, we show that the ensemble average of the distance in a given observed direction is increased by gravitational lensing, whereas the directional average of the distance is decreased. For a generic observable, there exists a particular function of the observable that is not affected by second-order lensing perturbations. We also show that standard areas have an advantage over standard rulers, and we discuss the subtleties involved in averaging in the case of supernova observations.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abaza, Mabrouk; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Perreault, Luc
2017-12-01
Meteorological and hydrological ensemble prediction systems are imperfect. Their outputs could often be improved through the use of a statistical processor, opening up the question of the necessity of using both processors (meteorological and hydrological), only one of them, or none. This experiment compares the predictive distributions from four hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS) utilising the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) probabilistic sequential data assimilation scheme. They differ in the inclusion or not of the Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) method for post-processing meteorological forecasts and the ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (ensemble BMA) method for hydrological forecast post-processing. The experiment is implemented on three large watersheds and relies on the combination of two meteorological reforecast products: the 4-member Canadian reforecasts from the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP) and the 10-member American reforecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), leading to 14 members at each time step. Results show that all four tested H-EPS lead to resolution and sharpness values that are quite similar, with an advantage to DBS + EnKF. The ensemble BMA is unable to compensate for any bias left in the precipitation ensemble forecasts. On the other hand, it succeeds in calibrating ensemble members that are otherwise under-dispersed. If reliability is preferred over resolution and sharpness, DBS + EnKF + ensemble BMA performs best, making use of both processors in the H-EPS system. Conversely, for enhanced resolution and sharpness, DBS is the preferred method.
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Helms Tillery, S I; Taylor, D M; Schwartz, A B
2003-01-01
We have recently developed a closed-loop environment in which we can test the ability of primates to control the motion of a virtual device using ensembles of simultaneously recorded neurons /29/. Here we use a maximum likelihood method to assess the information about task performance contained in the neuronal ensemble. We trained two animals to control the motion of a computer cursor in three dimensions. Initially the animals controlled cursor motion using arm movements, but eventually they learned to drive the cursor directly from cortical activity. Using a population vector (PV) based upon the relation between cortical activity and arm motion, the animals were able to control the cursor directly from the brain in a closed-loop environment, but with difficulty. We added a supervised learning method that modified the parameters of the PV according to task performance (adaptive PV), and found that animals were able to exert much finer control over the cursor motion from brain signals. Here we describe a maximum likelihood method (ML) to assess the information about target contained in neuronal ensemble activity. Using this method, we compared the information about target contained in the ensemble during arm control, during brain control early in the adaptive PV, and during brain control after the adaptive PV had settled and the animal could drive the cursor reliably and with fine gradations. During the arm-control task, the ML was able to determine the target of the movement in as few as 10% of the trials, and as many as 75% of the trials, with an average of 65%. This average dropped when the animals used a population vector to control motion of the cursor. On average we could determine the target in around 35% of the trials. This low percentage was also reflected in poor control of the cursor, so that the animal was unable to reach the target in a large percentage of trials. Supervised adjustment of the population vector parameters produced new weighting coefficients and directional tuning parameters for many neurons. This produced a much better performance of the brain-controlled cursor motion. It was also reflected in the maximum likelihood measure of cell activity, producing the correct target based only on neuronal activity in over 80% of the trials on average. The changes in maximum likelihood estimates of target location based on ensemble firing show that an animal's ability to regulate the motion of a cortically controlled device is not crucially dependent on the experimenter's ability to estimate intention from neuronal activity.
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Stresses and elastic constants of crystalline sodium, from molecular dynamics
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Schiferl, S.K.
1985-02-01
The stresses and the elastic constants of bcc sodium are calculated by molecular dynamics (MD) for temperatures to T = 340K. The total adiabatic potential of a system of sodium atoms is represented by pseudopotential model. The resulting expression has two terms: a large, strictly volume-dependent potential, plus a sum over ion pairs of a small, volume-dependent two-body potential. The stresses and the elastic constants are given as strain derivatives of the Helmholtz free energy. The resulting expressions involve canonical ensemble averages (and fluctuation averages) of the position and volume derivatives of the potential. An ensemble correction relates the resultsmore » to MD equilibrium averages. Evaluation of the potential and its derivatives requires the calculation of integrals with infinite upper limits of integration, and integrand singularities. Methods for calculating these integrals and estimating the effects of integration errors are developed. A method is given for choosing initial conditions that relax quickly to a desired equilibrium state. Statistical methods developed earlier for MD data are extended to evaluate uncertainties in fluctuation averages, and to test for symmetry. 45 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less
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Strecker, Claas; Meyer, Bernd
2018-05-29
Protein flexibility poses a major challenge to docking of potential ligands in that the binding site can adopt different shapes. Docking algorithms usually keep the protein rigid and only allow the ligand to be treated as flexible. However, a wrong assessment of the shape of the binding pocket can prevent a ligand from adapting a correct pose. Ensemble docking is a simple yet promising method to solve this problem: Ligands are docked into multiple structures, and the results are subsequently merged. Selection of protein structures is a significant factor for this approach. In this work we perform a comprehensive and comparative study evaluating the impact of structure selection on ensemble docking. We perform ensemble docking with several crystal structures and with structures derived from molecular dynamics simulations of renin, an attractive target for antihypertensive drugs. Here, 500 ns of MD simulations revealed binding site shapes not found in any available crystal structure. We evaluate the importance of structure selection for ensemble docking by comparing binding pose prediction, ability to rank actives above nonactives (screening utility), and scoring accuracy. As a result, for ensemble definition k-means clustering appears to be better suited than hierarchical clustering with average linkage. The best performing ensemble consists of four crystal structures and is able to reproduce the native ligand poses better than any individual crystal structure. Moreover this ensemble outperforms 88% of all individual crystal structures in terms of screening utility as well as scoring accuracy. Similarly, ensembles of MD-derived structures perform on average better than 75% of any individual crystal structure in terms of scoring accuracy at all inspected ensembles sizes.
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An ensemble rank learning approach for gene prioritization.
Lee, Po-Feng; Soo, Von-Wun
2013-01-01
Several different computational approaches have been developed to solve the gene prioritization problem. We intend to use the ensemble boosting learning techniques to combine variant computational approaches for gene prioritization in order to improve the overall performance. In particular we add a heuristic weighting function to the Rankboost algorithm according to: 1) the absolute ranks generated by the adopted methods for a certain gene, and 2) the ranking relationship between all gene-pairs from each prioritization result. We select 13 known prostate cancer genes in OMIM database as training set and protein coding gene data in HGNC database as test set. We adopt the leave-one-out strategy for the ensemble rank boosting learning. The experimental results show that our ensemble learning approach outperforms the four gene-prioritization methods in ToppGene suite in the ranking results of the 13 known genes in terms of mean average precision, ROC and AUC measures.
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Fitting a function to time-dependent ensemble averaged data.
Fogelmark, Karl; Lomholt, Michael A; Irbäck, Anders; Ambjörnsson, Tobias
2018-05-03
Time-dependent ensemble averages, i.e., trajectory-based averages of some observable, are of importance in many fields of science. A crucial objective when interpreting such data is to fit these averages (for instance, squared displacements) with a function and extract parameters (such as diffusion constants). A commonly overlooked challenge in such function fitting procedures is that fluctuations around mean values, by construction, exhibit temporal correlations. We show that the only available general purpose function fitting methods, correlated chi-square method and the weighted least squares method (which neglects correlation), fail at either robust parameter estimation or accurate error estimation. We remedy this by deriving a new closed-form error estimation formula for weighted least square fitting. The new formula uses the full covariance matrix, i.e., rigorously includes temporal correlations, but is free of the robustness issues, inherent to the correlated chi-square method. We demonstrate its accuracy in four examples of importance in many fields: Brownian motion, damped harmonic oscillation, fractional Brownian motion and continuous time random walks. We also successfully apply our method, weighted least squares including correlation in error estimation (WLS-ICE), to particle tracking data. The WLS-ICE method is applicable to arbitrary fit functions, and we provide a publically available WLS-ICE software.
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Reduced set averaging of face identity in children and adolescents with autism.
Rhodes, Gillian; Neumann, Markus F; Ewing, Louise; Palermo, Romina
2015-01-01
Individuals with autism have difficulty abstracting and updating average representations from their diet of faces. These averages function as perceptual norms for coding faces, and poorly calibrated norms may contribute to face recognition difficulties in autism. Another kind of average, known as an ensemble representation, can be abstracted from briefly glimpsed sets of faces. Here we show for the first time that children and adolescents with autism also have difficulty abstracting ensemble representations from sets of faces. On each trial, participants saw a study set of four identities and then indicated whether a test face was present. The test face could be a set average or a set identity, from either the study set or another set. Recognition of set averages was reduced in participants with autism, relative to age- and ability-matched typically developing participants. This difference, which actually represents more accurate responding, indicates weaker set averaging and thus weaker ensemble representations of face identity in autism. Our finding adds to the growing evidence for atypical abstraction of average face representations from experience in autism. Weak ensemble representations may have negative consequences for face processing in autism, given the importance of ensemble representations in dealing with processing capacity limitations.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Xiongwu; Brooks, Bernard R.
2011-11-01
The self-guided Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a method to accelerate conformational searching. This method is unique in the way that it selectively enhances and suppresses molecular motions based on their frequency to accelerate conformational searching without modifying energy surfaces or raising temperatures. It has been applied to studies of many long time scale events, such as protein folding. Recent progress in the understanding of the conformational distribution in SGLD simulations makes SGLD also an accurate method for quantitative studies. The SGLD partition function provides a way to convert the SGLD conformational distribution to the canonical ensemble distribution and to calculate ensemble average properties through reweighting. Based on the SGLD partition function, this work presents a force-momentum-based self-guided Langevin dynamics (SGLDfp) simulation method to directly sample the canonical ensemble. This method includes interaction forces in its guiding force to compensate the perturbation caused by the momentum-based guiding force so that it can approximately sample the canonical ensemble. Using several example systems, we demonstrate that SGLDfp simulations can approximately maintain the canonical ensemble distribution and significantly accelerate conformational searching. With optimal parameters, SGLDfp and SGLD simulations can cross energy barriers of more than 15 kT and 20 kT, respectively, at similar rates for LD simulations to cross energy barriers of 10 kT. The SGLDfp method is size extensive and works well for large systems. For studies where preserving accessible conformational space is critical, such as free energy calculations and protein folding studies, SGLDfp is an efficient approach to search and sample the conformational space.
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NIMEFI: Gene Regulatory Network Inference using Multiple Ensemble Feature Importance Algorithms
Ruyssinck, Joeri; Huynh-Thu, Vân Anh; Geurts, Pierre; Dhaene, Tom; Demeester, Piet; Saeys, Yvan
2014-01-01
One of the long-standing open challenges in computational systems biology is the topology inference of gene regulatory networks from high-throughput omics data. Recently, two community-wide efforts, DREAM4 and DREAM5, have been established to benchmark network inference techniques using gene expression measurements. In these challenges the overall top performer was the GENIE3 algorithm. This method decomposes the network inference task into separate regression problems for each gene in the network in which the expression values of a particular target gene are predicted using all other genes as possible predictors. Next, using tree-based ensemble methods, an importance measure for each predictor gene is calculated with respect to the target gene and a high feature importance is considered as putative evidence of a regulatory link existing between both genes. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, we generalize the regression decomposition strategy of GENIE3 to other feature importance methods. We compare the performance of support vector regression, the elastic net, random forest regression, symbolic regression and their ensemble variants in this setting to the original GENIE3 algorithm. To create the ensemble variants, we propose a subsampling approach which allows us to cast any feature selection algorithm that produces a feature ranking into an ensemble feature importance algorithm. We demonstrate that the ensemble setting is key to the network inference task, as only ensemble variants achieve top performance. As second contribution, we explore the effect of using rankwise averaged predictions of multiple ensemble algorithms as opposed to only one. We name this approach NIMEFI (Network Inference using Multiple Ensemble Feature Importance algorithms) and show that this approach outperforms all individual methods in general, although on a specific network a single method can perform better. An implementation of NIMEFI has been made publicly available. PMID:24667482
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A framework of multitemplate ensemble for fingerprint verification
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yin, Yilong; Ning, Yanbin; Ren, Chunxiao; Liu, Li
2012-12-01
How to improve performance of an automatic fingerprint verification system (AFVS) is always a big challenge in biometric verification field. Recently, it becomes popular to improve the performance of AFVS using ensemble learning approach to fuse related information of fingerprints. In this article, we propose a novel framework of fingerprint verification which is based on the multitemplate ensemble method. This framework is consisted of three stages. In the first stage, enrollment stage, we adopt an effective template selection method to select those fingerprints which best represent a finger, and then, a polyhedron is created by the matching results of multiple template fingerprints and a virtual centroid of the polyhedron is given. In the second stage, verification stage, we measure the distance between the centroid of the polyhedron and a query image. In the final stage, a fusion rule is used to choose a proper distance from a distance set. The experimental results on the FVC2004 database prove the improvement on the effectiveness of the new framework in fingerprint verification. With a minutiae-based matching method, the average EER of four databases in FVC2004 drops from 10.85 to 0.88, and with a ridge-based matching method, the average EER of these four databases also decreases from 14.58 to 2.51.
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A benchmark for reaction coordinates in the transition path ensemble
2016-01-01
The molecular mechanism of a reaction is embedded in its transition path ensemble, the complete collection of reactive trajectories. Utilizing the information in the transition path ensemble alone, we developed a novel metric, which we termed the emergent potential energy, for distinguishing reaction coordinates from the bath modes. The emergent potential energy can be understood as the average energy cost for making a displacement of a coordinate in the transition path ensemble. Where displacing a bath mode invokes essentially no cost, it costs significantly to move the reaction coordinate. Based on some general assumptions of the behaviors of reaction and bath coordinates in the transition path ensemble, we proved theoretically with statistical mechanics that the emergent potential energy could serve as a benchmark of reaction coordinates and demonstrated its effectiveness by applying it to a prototypical system of biomolecular dynamics. Using the emergent potential energy as guidance, we developed a committor-free and intuition-independent method for identifying reaction coordinates in complex systems. We expect this method to be applicable to a wide range of reaction processes in complex biomolecular systems. PMID:27059559
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Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian
2017-04-01
Ensemble forecasting has a long history from meteorological modelling, as an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process the ensembles as the they often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters varying in space and time, while giving a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, which makes it unsuitable for our purpose. Our post-processing method of the ensembles is developed in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu), where we are making forecasts for whole Europe, and based on observations from around 700 catchments. As the target is flood forecasting, we are also more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than in a good prediction of the entire flow regime. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different meteorological forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to estimate the total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but we are adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process to force a spatial correlation of the parameters. The penalty takes distance, stream-connectivity and size of the catchment areas into account. This can in some cases have a slight negative impact on the calibration error, but avoids large differences between parameters of nearby locations, whether stream connected or not. The spatial calibration also makes it easier to interpolate the post-processing parameters to uncalibrated locations. We also look into different methods for handling the non-normal distributions of runoff data and the effect of different data transformations on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Engeland, K. and Steinsland, I.: Probabilistic postprocessing models for flow forecasts for a system of catchments and several lead times, Water Resour. Res., 50(1), 182-197, doi:10.1002/2012WR012757, 2014. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005.
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Yang, Shan; Al-Hashimi, Hashim M.
2016-01-01
A growing number of studies employ time-averaged experimental data to determine dynamic ensembles of biomolecules. While it is well known that different ensembles can satisfy experimental data to within error, the extent and nature of these degeneracies, and their impact on the accuracy of the ensemble determination remains poorly understood. Here, we use simulations and a recently introduced metric for assessing ensemble similarity to explore degeneracies in determining ensembles using NMR residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) with specific application to A-form helices in RNA. Various target ensembles were constructed representing different domain-domain orientational distributions that are confined to a topologically restricted (<10%) conformational space. Five independent sets of ensemble averaged RDCs were then computed for each target ensemble and a ‘sample and select’ scheme used to identify degenerate ensembles that satisfy RDCs to within experimental uncertainty. We find that ensembles with different ensemble sizes and that can differ significantly from the target ensemble (by as much as ΣΩ ~ 0.4 where ΣΩ varies between 0 and 1 for maximum and minimum ensemble similarity, respectively) can satisfy the ensemble averaged RDCs. These deviations increase with the number of unique conformers and breadth of the target distribution, and result in significant uncertainty in determining conformational entropy (as large as 5 kcal/mol at T = 298 K). Nevertheless, the RDC-degenerate ensembles are biased towards populated regions of the target ensemble, and capture other essential features of the distribution, including the shape. Our results identify ensemble size as a major source of uncertainty in determining ensembles and suggest that NMR interactions such as RDCs and spin relaxation, on their own, do not carry the necessary information needed to determine conformational entropy at a useful level of precision. The framework introduced here provides a general approach for exploring degeneracies in ensemble determination for different types of experimental data. PMID:26131693
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Ensemble perception of color in autistic adults.
Maule, John; Stanworth, Kirstie; Pellicano, Elizabeth; Franklin, Anna
2017-05-01
Dominant accounts of visual processing in autism posit that autistic individuals have an enhanced access to details of scenes [e.g., weak central coherence] which is reflected in a general bias toward local processing. Furthermore, the attenuated priors account of autism predicts that the updating and use of summary representations is reduced in autism. Ensemble perception describes the extraction of global summary statistics of a visual feature from a heterogeneous set (e.g., of faces, sizes, colors), often in the absence of local item representation. The present study investigated ensemble perception in autistic adults using a rapidly presented (500 msec) ensemble of four, eight, or sixteen elements representing four different colors. We predicted that autistic individuals would be less accurate when averaging the ensembles, but more accurate in recognizing individual ensemble colors. The results were consistent with the predictions. Averaging was impaired in autism, but only when ensembles contained four elements. Ensembles of eight or sixteen elements were averaged equally accurately across groups. The autistic group also showed a corresponding advantage in rejecting colors that were not originally seen in the ensemble. The results demonstrate the local processing bias in autism, but also suggest that the global perceptual averaging mechanism may be compromised under some conditions. The theoretical implications of the findings and future avenues for research on summary statistics in autism are discussed. Autism Res 2017, 10: 839-851. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Ensemble perception of color in autistic adults
Stanworth, Kirstie; Pellicano, Elizabeth; Franklin, Anna
2016-01-01
Dominant accounts of visual processing in autism posit that autistic individuals have an enhanced access to details of scenes [e.g., weak central coherence] which is reflected in a general bias toward local processing. Furthermore, the attenuated priors account of autism predicts that the updating and use of summary representations is reduced in autism. Ensemble perception describes the extraction of global summary statistics of a visual feature from a heterogeneous set (e.g., of faces, sizes, colors), often in the absence of local item representation. The present study investigated ensemble perception in autistic adults using a rapidly presented (500 msec) ensemble of four, eight, or sixteen elements representing four different colors. We predicted that autistic individuals would be less accurate when averaging the ensembles, but more accurate in recognizing individual ensemble colors. The results were consistent with the predictions. Averaging was impaired in autism, but only when ensembles contained four elements. Ensembles of eight or sixteen elements were averaged equally accurately across groups. The autistic group also showed a corresponding advantage in rejecting colors that were not originally seen in the ensemble. The results demonstrate the local processing bias in autism, but also suggest that the global perceptual averaging mechanism may be compromised under some conditions. The theoretical implications of the findings and future avenues for research on summary statistics in autism are discussed. Autism Res 2017, 10: 839–851. © 2016 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research PMID:27874263
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Scale-invariant Green-Kubo relation for time-averaged diffusivity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meyer, Philipp; Barkai, Eli; Kantz, Holger
2017-12-01
In recent years it was shown both theoretically and experimentally that in certain systems exhibiting anomalous diffusion the time- and ensemble-averaged mean-squared displacement are remarkably different. The ensemble-averaged diffusivity is obtained from a scaling Green-Kubo relation, which connects the scale-invariant nonstationary velocity correlation function with the transport coefficient. Here we obtain the relation between time-averaged diffusivity, usually recorded in single-particle tracking experiments, and the underlying scale-invariant velocity correlation function. The time-averaged mean-squared displacement is given by 〈δ2¯〉 ˜2 DνtβΔν -β , where t is the total measurement time and Δ is the lag time. Here ν is the anomalous diffusion exponent obtained from ensemble-averaged measurements 〈x2〉 ˜tν , while β ≥-1 marks the growth or decline of the kinetic energy 〈v2〉 ˜tβ . Thus, we establish a connection between exponents that can be read off the asymptotic properties of the velocity correlation function and similarly for the transport constant Dν. We demonstrate our results with nonstationary scale-invariant stochastic and deterministic models, thereby highlighting that systems with equivalent behavior in the ensemble average can differ strongly in their time average. If the averaged kinetic energy is finite, β =0 , the time scaling of 〈δ2¯〉 and 〈x2〉 are identical; however, the time-averaged transport coefficient Dν is not identical to the corresponding ensemble-averaged diffusion constant.
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Using simulation to interpret experimental data in terms of protein conformational ensembles.
Allison, Jane R
2017-04-01
In their biological environment, proteins are dynamic molecules, necessitating an ensemble structural description. Molecular dynamics simulations and solution-state experiments provide complimentary information in the form of atomically detailed coordinates and averaged or distributions of structural properties or related quantities. Recently, increases in the temporal and spatial scale of conformational sampling and comparison of the more diverse conformational ensembles thus generated have revealed the importance of sampling rare events. Excitingly, new methods based on maximum entropy and Bayesian inference are promising to provide a statistically sound mechanism for combining experimental data with molecular dynamics simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Metainference: A Bayesian inference method for heterogeneous systems.
Bonomi, Massimiliano; Camilloni, Carlo; Cavalli, Andrea; Vendruscolo, Michele
2016-01-01
Modeling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding system. This approach, however, is affected by a variety of different errors, especially when a system simultaneously populates an ensemble of different states and experimental data are measured as averages over such states. To address this problem, we present a Bayesian inference method, called "metainference," that is able to deal with errors in experimental measurements and with experimental measurements averaged over multiple states. To achieve this goal, metainference models a finite sample of the distribution of models using a replica approach, in the spirit of the replica-averaging modeling based on the maximum entropy principle. To illustrate the method, we present its application to a heterogeneous model system and to the determination of an ensemble of structures corresponding to the thermal fluctuations of a protein molecule. Metainference thus provides an approach to modeling complex systems with heterogeneous components and interconverting between different states by taking into account all possible sources of errors.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.
2014-11-01
Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural vs. model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty is far more important than model parametric uncertainty to estimate irrigation water requirement. Using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.
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EMC Global Climate And Weather Modeling Branch Personnel
Comparison Statistics which includes: NCEP Raw and Bias-Corrected Ensemble Domain Averaged Bias NCEP Raw and Bias-Corrected Ensemble Domain Averaged Bias Reduction (Percents) CMC Raw and Bias-Corrected Control Forecast Domain Averaged Bias CMC Raw and Bias-Corrected Control Forecast Domain Averaged Bias Reduction
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Predicting drug-induced liver injury using ensemble learning methods and molecular fingerprints.
Ai, Haixin; Chen, Wen; Zhang, Li; Huang, Liangchao; Yin, Zimo; Hu, Huan; Zhao, Qi; Zhao, Jian; Liu, Hongsheng
2018-05-21
Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a major safety concern in the drug-development process, and various methods have been proposed to predict the hepatotoxicity of compounds during the early stages of drug trials. In this study, we developed an ensemble model using three machine learning algorithms and 12 molecular fingerprints from a dataset containing 1,241 diverse compounds. The ensemble model achieved an average accuracy of 71.1±2.6%, sensitivity of 79.9±3.6%, specificity of 60.3±4.8%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.764±0.026 in five-fold cross-validation and an accuracy of 84.3%, sensitivity of 86.9%, specificity of 75.4%, and AUC of 0.904 in an external validation dataset of 286 compounds collected from the Liver Toxicity Knowledge Base (LTKB). Compared with previous methods, the ensemble model achieved relatively high accuracy and sensitivity. We also identified several substructures related to DILI. In addition, we provide a web server offering access to our models (http://ccsipb.lnu.edu.cn/toxicity/HepatoPred-EL/).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pollard, D.; Chang, W.; Haran, M.; Applegate, P.; DeConto, R.
2015-11-01
A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ~ 20 000 years. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree quite well with the more advanced techniques, but only for a large ensemble with full factorial parameter sampling. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Each run is extended 5000 years into the "future" with idealized ramped climate warming. In the majority of runs with reasonable scores, this produces grounding-line retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior, and the analysis provides sea-level-rise envelopes with well defined parametric uncertainty bounds.
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Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian
2016-04-01
Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative impact on the calibration error, but makes it easier to interpolate the post-processing parameters to uncalibrated locations. We also look into different methods for handling the non-normal distributions of runoff data and the effect of different data transformations on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Engeland, K. and Steinsland, I.: Probabilistic postprocessing models for flow forecasts for a system of catchments and several lead times, Water Resour. Res., 50(1), 182-197, doi:10.1002/2012WR012757, 2014. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rings, Joerg; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Schoups, Gerrit; Huisman, Johan A.; Vereecken, Harry
2012-05-01
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a standard method for combining predictive distributions from different models. In recent years, this method has enjoyed widespread application and use in many fields of study to improve the spread-skill relationship of forecast ensembles. The BMA predictive probability density function (pdf) of any quantity of interest is a weighted average of pdfs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal to posterior probabilities of the models generating the forecasts, and reflect the individual models skill over a training (calibration) period. The original BMA approach presented by Raftery et al. (2005) assumes that the conditional pdf of each individual model is adequately described with a rather standard Gaussian or Gamma statistical distribution, possibly with a heteroscedastic variance. Here we analyze the advantages of using BMA with a flexible representation of the conditional pdf. A joint particle filtering and Gaussian mixture modeling framework is presented to derive analytically, as closely and consistently as possible, the evolving forecast density (conditional pdf) of each constituent ensemble member. The median forecasts and evolving conditional pdfs of the constituent models are subsequently combined using BMA to derive one overall predictive distribution. This paper introduces the theory and concepts of this new ensemble postprocessing method, and demonstrates its usefulness and applicability by numerical simulation of the rainfall-runoff transformation using discharge data from three different catchments in the contiguous United States. The revised BMA method receives significantly lower-prediction errors than the original default BMA method (due to filtering) with predictive uncertainty intervals that are substantially smaller but still statistically coherent (due to the use of a time-variant conditional pdf).
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Ensemble Averaged Probability Density Function (APDF) for Compressible Turbulent Reacting Flows
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Liu, Nan-Suey
2012-01-01
In this paper, we present a concept of the averaged probability density function (APDF) for studying compressible turbulent reacting flows. The APDF is defined as an ensemble average of the fine grained probability density function (FG-PDF) with a mass density weighting. It can be used to exactly deduce the mass density weighted, ensemble averaged turbulent mean variables. The transport equation for APDF can be derived in two ways. One is the traditional way that starts from the transport equation of FG-PDF, in which the compressible Navier- Stokes equations are embedded. The resulting transport equation of APDF is then in a traditional form that contains conditional means of all terms from the right hand side of the Navier-Stokes equations except for the chemical reaction term. These conditional means are new unknown quantities that need to be modeled. Another way of deriving the transport equation of APDF is to start directly from the ensemble averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The resulting transport equation of APDF derived from this approach appears in a closed form without any need for additional modeling. The methodology of ensemble averaging presented in this paper can be extended to other averaging procedures: for example, the Reynolds time averaging for statistically steady flow and the Reynolds spatial averaging for statistically homogeneous flow. It can also be extended to a time or spatial filtering procedure to construct the filtered density function (FDF) for the large eddy simulation (LES) of compressible turbulent reacting flows.
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Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann
2018-04-01
Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.
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MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.
2016-01-01
In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.
2015-04-01
Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural versus model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty among reference ET is far more important than model parametric uncertainty introduced by crop coefficients. These crop coefficients are used to estimate irrigation water requirement following the single crop coefficient approach. Using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.
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2012-01-01
Background Biomarker panels derived separately from genomic and proteomic data and with a variety of computational methods have demonstrated promising classification performance in various diseases. An open question is how to create effective proteo-genomic panels. The framework of ensemble classifiers has been applied successfully in various analytical domains to combine classifiers so that the performance of the ensemble exceeds the performance of individual classifiers. Using blood-based diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection as a case study, we address the following question in this paper: Can acute rejection classification performance be improved by combining individual genomic and proteomic classifiers in an ensemble? Results The first part of the paper presents a computational biomarker development pipeline for genomic and proteomic data. The pipeline begins with data acquisition (e.g., from bio-samples to microarray data), quality control, statistical analysis and mining of the data, and finally various forms of validation. The pipeline ensures that the various classifiers to be combined later in an ensemble are diverse and adequate for clinical use. Five mRNA genomic and five proteomic classifiers were developed independently using single time-point blood samples from 11 acute-rejection and 22 non-rejection renal transplant patients. The second part of the paper examines five ensembles ranging in size from two to 10 individual classifiers. Performance of ensembles is characterized by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, as derived from the probability of acute rejection for individual classifiers in the ensemble in combination with one of two aggregation methods: (1) Average Probability or (2) Vote Threshold. One ensemble demonstrated superior performance and was able to improve sensitivity and AUC beyond the best values observed for any of the individual classifiers in the ensemble, while staying within the range of observed specificity. The Vote Threshold aggregation method achieved improved sensitivity for all 5 ensembles, but typically at the cost of decreased specificity. Conclusion Proteo-genomic biomarker ensemble classifiers show promise in the diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection and can improve classification performance beyond that of individual genomic or proteomic classifiers alone. Validation of our results in an international multicenter study is currently underway. PMID:23216969
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Günther, Oliver P; Chen, Virginia; Freue, Gabriela Cohen; Balshaw, Robert F; Tebbutt, Scott J; Hollander, Zsuzsanna; Takhar, Mandeep; McMaster, W Robert; McManus, Bruce M; Keown, Paul A; Ng, Raymond T
2012-12-08
Biomarker panels derived separately from genomic and proteomic data and with a variety of computational methods have demonstrated promising classification performance in various diseases. An open question is how to create effective proteo-genomic panels. The framework of ensemble classifiers has been applied successfully in various analytical domains to combine classifiers so that the performance of the ensemble exceeds the performance of individual classifiers. Using blood-based diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection as a case study, we address the following question in this paper: Can acute rejection classification performance be improved by combining individual genomic and proteomic classifiers in an ensemble? The first part of the paper presents a computational biomarker development pipeline for genomic and proteomic data. The pipeline begins with data acquisition (e.g., from bio-samples to microarray data), quality control, statistical analysis and mining of the data, and finally various forms of validation. The pipeline ensures that the various classifiers to be combined later in an ensemble are diverse and adequate for clinical use. Five mRNA genomic and five proteomic classifiers were developed independently using single time-point blood samples from 11 acute-rejection and 22 non-rejection renal transplant patients. The second part of the paper examines five ensembles ranging in size from two to 10 individual classifiers. Performance of ensembles is characterized by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, as derived from the probability of acute rejection for individual classifiers in the ensemble in combination with one of two aggregation methods: (1) Average Probability or (2) Vote Threshold. One ensemble demonstrated superior performance and was able to improve sensitivity and AUC beyond the best values observed for any of the individual classifiers in the ensemble, while staying within the range of observed specificity. The Vote Threshold aggregation method achieved improved sensitivity for all 5 ensembles, but typically at the cost of decreased specificity. Proteo-genomic biomarker ensemble classifiers show promise in the diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection and can improve classification performance beyond that of individual genomic or proteomic classifiers alone. Validation of our results in an international multicenter study is currently underway.
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Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney
2012-01-01
The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....
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The Weighted-Average Lagged Ensemble.
DelSole, T; Trenary, L; Tippett, M K
2017-11-01
A lagged ensemble is an ensemble of forecasts from the same model initialized at different times but verifying at the same time. The skill of a lagged ensemble mean can be improved by assigning weights to different forecasts in such a way as to maximize skill. If the forecasts are bias corrected, then an unbiased weighted lagged ensemble requires the weights to sum to one. Such a scheme is called a weighted-average lagged ensemble. In the limit of uncorrelated errors, the optimal weights are positive and decay monotonically with lead time, so that the least skillful forecasts have the least weight. In more realistic applications, the optimal weights do not always behave this way. This paper presents a series of analytic examples designed to illuminate conditions under which the weights of an optimal weighted-average lagged ensemble become negative or depend nonmonotonically on lead time. It is shown that negative weights are most likely to occur when the errors grow rapidly and are highly correlated across lead time. The weights are most likely to behave nonmonotonically when the mean square error is approximately constant over the range forecasts included in the lagged ensemble. An extreme example of the latter behavior is presented in which the optimal weights vanish everywhere except at the shortest and longest lead times.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.
2016-12-01
As part of the NASA-NSF Space Weather Modeling Collaboration, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics system that is based on Data Assimilation (DA) models. MEPS is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models that cover the globe. Ensemble modeling can be conducted for the mid-low latitude ionosphere using the four GAIM data assimilation models, including the Gauss Markov (GM), Full Physics (FP), Band Limited (BL) and 4DVAR DA models. These models can assimilate Total Electron Content (TEC) from a constellation of satellites, bottom-side electron density profiles from digisondes, in situ plasma densities, occultation data and ultraviolet emissions. The four GAIM models were run for the March 16-17, 2013, geomagnetic storm period with the same data, but we also systematically added new data types and re-ran the GAIM models to see how the different data types affected the GAIM results, with the emphasis on elucidating differences in the underlying ionospheric dynamics and thermospheric coupling. Also, for each scenario the outputs from the four GAIM models were used to produce an ensemble mean for TEC, NmF2, and hmF2. A simple average of the models was used in the ensemble averaging to see if there was an improvement of the ensemble average over the individual models. For the scenarios considered, the ensemble average yielded better specifications than the individual GAIM models. The model differences and averages, and the consequent differences in ionosphere-thermosphere coupling and dynamics will be discussed.
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Perceived Average Orientation Reflects Effective Gist of the Surface.
Cha, Oakyoon; Chong, Sang Chul
2018-03-01
The human ability to represent ensemble visual information, such as average orientation and size, has been suggested as the foundation of gist perception. To effectively summarize different groups of objects into the gist of a scene, observers should form ensembles separately for different groups, even when objects have similar visual features across groups. We hypothesized that the visual system utilizes perceptual groups characterized by spatial configuration and represents separate ensembles for different groups. Therefore, participants could not integrate ensembles of different perceptual groups on a task basis. We asked participants to determine the average orientation of visual elements comprising a surface with a contour situated inside. Although participants were asked to estimate the average orientation of all the elements, they ignored orientation signals embedded in the contour. This constraint may help the visual system to keep the visual features of occluding objects separate from those of the occluded objects.
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Implementation of unsteady sampling procedures for the parallel direct simulation Monte Carlo method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cave, H. M.; Tseng, K.-C.; Wu, J.-S.; Jermy, M. C.; Huang, J.-C.; Krumdieck, S. P.
2008-06-01
An unsteady sampling routine for a general parallel direct simulation Monte Carlo method called PDSC is introduced, allowing the simulation of time-dependent flow problems in the near continuum range. A post-processing procedure called DSMC rapid ensemble averaging method (DREAM) is developed to improve the statistical scatter in the results while minimising both memory and simulation time. This method builds an ensemble average of repeated runs over small number of sampling intervals prior to the sampling point of interest by restarting the flow using either a Maxwellian distribution based on macroscopic properties for near equilibrium flows (DREAM-I) or output instantaneous particle data obtained by the original unsteady sampling of PDSC for strongly non-equilibrium flows (DREAM-II). The method is validated by simulating shock tube flow and the development of simple Couette flow. Unsteady PDSC is found to accurately predict the flow field in both cases with significantly reduced run-times over single processor code and DREAM greatly reduces the statistical scatter in the results while maintaining accurate particle velocity distributions. Simulations are then conducted of two applications involving the interaction of shocks over wedges. The results of these simulations are compared to experimental data and simulations from the literature where there these are available. In general, it was found that 10 ensembled runs of DREAM processing could reduce the statistical uncertainty in the raw PDSC data by 2.5-3.3 times, based on the limited number of cases in the present study.
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Xue, Yi; Skrynnikov, Nikolai R
2014-01-01
Currently, the best existing molecular dynamics (MD) force fields cannot accurately reproduce the global free-energy minimum which realizes the experimental protein structure. As a result, long MD trajectories tend to drift away from the starting coordinates (e.g., crystallographic structures). To address this problem, we have devised a new simulation strategy aimed at protein crystals. An MD simulation of protein crystal is essentially an ensemble simulation involving multiple protein molecules in a crystal unit cell (or a block of unit cells). To ensure that average protein coordinates remain correct during the simulation, we introduced crystallography-based restraints into the MD protocol. Because these restraints are aimed at the ensemble-average structure, they have only minimal impact on conformational dynamics of the individual protein molecules. So long as the average structure remains reasonable, the proteins move in a native-like fashion as dictated by the original force field. To validate this approach, we have used the data from solid-state NMR spectroscopy, which is the orthogonal experimental technique uniquely sensitive to protein local dynamics. The new method has been tested on the well-established model protein, ubiquitin. The ensemble-restrained MD simulations produced lower crystallographic R factors than conventional simulations; they also led to more accurate predictions for crystallographic temperature factors, solid-state chemical shifts, and backbone order parameters. The predictions for 15N R1 relaxation rates are at least as accurate as those obtained from conventional simulations. Taken together, these results suggest that the presented trajectories may be among the most realistic protein MD simulations ever reported. In this context, the ensemble restraints based on high-resolution crystallographic data can be viewed as protein-specific empirical corrections to the standard force fields. PMID:24452989
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Sequence Based Prediction of Antioxidant Proteins Using a Classifier Selection Strategy
Zhang, Lina; Zhang, Chengjin; Gao, Rui; Yang, Runtao; Song, Qing
2016-01-01
Antioxidant proteins perform significant functions in maintaining oxidation/antioxidation balance and have potential therapies for some diseases. Accurate identification of antioxidant proteins could contribute to revealing physiological processes of oxidation/antioxidation balance and developing novel antioxidation-based drugs. In this study, an ensemble method is presented to predict antioxidant proteins with hybrid features, incorporating SSI (Secondary Structure Information), PSSM (Position Specific Scoring Matrix), RSA (Relative Solvent Accessibility), and CTD (Composition, Transition, Distribution). The prediction results of the ensemble predictor are determined by an average of prediction results of multiple base classifiers. Based on a classifier selection strategy, we obtain an optimal ensemble classifier composed of RF (Random Forest), SMO (Sequential Minimal Optimization), NNA (Nearest Neighbor Algorithm), and J48 with an accuracy of 0.925. A Relief combined with IFS (Incremental Feature Selection) method is adopted to obtain optimal features from hybrid features. With the optimal features, the ensemble method achieves improved performance with a sensitivity of 0.95, a specificity of 0.93, an accuracy of 0.94, and an MCC (Matthew’s Correlation Coefficient) of 0.880, far better than the existing method. To evaluate the prediction performance objectively, the proposed method is compared with existing methods on the same independent testing dataset. Encouragingly, our method performs better than previous studies. In addition, our method achieves more balanced performance with a sensitivity of 0.878 and a specificity of 0.860. These results suggest that the proposed ensemble method can be a potential candidate for antioxidant protein prediction. For public access, we develop a user-friendly web server for antioxidant protein identification that is freely accessible at http://antioxidant.weka.cc. PMID:27662651
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Near-optimal protocols in complex nonequilibrium transformations
Gingrich, Todd R.; Rotskoff, Grant M.; Crooks, Gavin E.; ...
2016-08-29
The development of sophisticated experimental means to control nanoscale systems has motivated efforts to design driving protocols that minimize the energy dissipated to the environment. Computational models are a crucial tool in this practical challenge. In this paper, we describe a general method for sampling an ensemble of finite-time, nonequilibrium protocols biased toward a low average dissipation. In addition, we show that this scheme can be carried out very efficiently in several limiting cases. As an application, we sample the ensemble of low-dissipation protocols that invert the magnetization of a 2D Ising model and explore how the diversity of themore » protocols varies in response to constraints on the average dissipation. In this example, we find that there is a large set of protocols with average dissipation close to the optimal value, which we argue is a general phenomenon.« less
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Azami, Hamed; Escudero, Javier
2015-08-01
Breast cancer is one of the most common types of cancer in women all over the world. Early diagnosis of this kind of cancer can significantly increase the chances of long-term survival. Since diagnosis of breast cancer is a complex problem, neural network (NN) approaches have been used as a promising solution. Considering the low speed of the back-propagation (BP) algorithm to train a feed-forward NN, we consider a number of improved NN trainings for the Wisconsin breast cancer dataset: BP with momentum, BP with adaptive learning rate, BP with adaptive learning rate and momentum, Polak-Ribikre conjugate gradient algorithm (CGA), Fletcher-Reeves CGA, Powell-Beale CGA, scaled CGA, resilient BP (RBP), one-step secant and quasi-Newton methods. An NN ensemble, which is a learning paradigm to combine a number of NN outputs, is used to improve the accuracy of the classification task. Results demonstrate that NN ensemble-based classification methods have better performance than NN-based algorithms. The highest overall average accuracy is 97.68% obtained by NN ensemble trained by RBP for 50%-50% training-test evaluation method.
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Metainference: A Bayesian inference method for heterogeneous systems
Bonomi, Massimiliano; Camilloni, Carlo; Cavalli, Andrea; Vendruscolo, Michele
2016-01-01
Modeling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding system. This approach, however, is affected by a variety of different errors, especially when a system simultaneously populates an ensemble of different states and experimental data are measured as averages over such states. To address this problem, we present a Bayesian inference method, called “metainference,” that is able to deal with errors in experimental measurements and with experimental measurements averaged over multiple states. To achieve this goal, metainference models a finite sample of the distribution of models using a replica approach, in the spirit of the replica-averaging modeling based on the maximum entropy principle. To illustrate the method, we present its application to a heterogeneous model system and to the determination of an ensemble of structures corresponding to the thermal fluctuations of a protein molecule. Metainference thus provides an approach to modeling complex systems with heterogeneous components and interconverting between different states by taking into account all possible sources of errors. PMID:26844300
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From a structural average to the conformational ensemble of a DNA bulge
Shi, Xuesong; Beauchamp, Kyle A.; Harbury, Pehr B.; Herschlag, Daniel
2014-01-01
Direct experimental measurements of conformational ensembles are critical for understanding macromolecular function, but traditional biophysical methods do not directly report the solution ensemble of a macromolecule. Small-angle X-ray scattering interferometry has the potential to overcome this limitation by providing the instantaneous distance distribution between pairs of gold-nanocrystal probes conjugated to a macromolecule in solution. Our X-ray interferometry experiments reveal an increasing bend angle of DNA duplexes with bulges of one, three, and five adenosine residues, consistent with previous FRET measurements, and further reveal an increasingly broad conformational ensemble with increasing bulge length. The distance distributions for the AAA bulge duplex (3A-DNA) with six different Au-Au pairs provide strong evidence against a simple elastic model in which fluctuations occur about a single conformational state. Instead, the measured distance distributions suggest a 3A-DNA ensemble with multiple conformational states predominantly across a region of conformational space with bend angles between 24 and 85 degrees and characteristic bend directions and helical twists and displacements. Additional X-ray interferometry experiments revealed perturbations to the ensemble from changes in ionic conditions and the bulge sequence, effects that can be understood in terms of electrostatic and stacking contributions to the ensemble and that demonstrate the sensitivity of X-ray interferometry. Combining X-ray interferometry ensemble data with molecular dynamics simulations gave atomic-level models of representative conformational states and of the molecular interactions that may shape the ensemble, and fluorescence measurements with 2-aminopurine-substituted 3A-DNA provided initial tests of these atomistic models. More generally, X-ray interferometry will provide powerful benchmarks for testing and developing computational methods. PMID:24706812
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Implicit ligand theory for relative binding free energies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nguyen, Trung Hai; Minh, David D. L.
2018-03-01
Implicit ligand theory enables noncovalent binding free energies to be calculated based on an exponential average of the binding potential of mean force (BPMF)—the binding free energy between a flexible ligand and rigid receptor—over a precomputed ensemble of receptor configurations. In the original formalism, receptor configurations were drawn from or reweighted to the apo ensemble. Here we show that BPMFs averaged over a holo ensemble yield binding free energies relative to the reference ligand that specifies the ensemble. When using receptor snapshots from an alchemical simulation with a single ligand, the new statistical estimator outperforms the original.
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Chakravorty, Arghya; Jia, Zhe; Li, Lin; Zhao, Shan; Alexov, Emil
2018-02-13
Typically, the ensemble average polar component of solvation energy (ΔG polar solv ) of a macromolecule is computed using molecular dynamics (MD) or Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to generate conformational ensemble and then single/rigid conformation solvation energy calculation is performed on each snapshot. The primary objective of this work is to demonstrate that Poisson-Boltzmann (PB)-based approach using a Gaussian-based smooth dielectric function for macromolecular modeling previously developed by us (Li et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2013, 9 (4), 2126-2136) can reproduce that ensemble average (ΔG polar solv ) of a protein from a single structure. We show that the Gaussian-based dielectric model reproduces the ensemble average ΔG polar solv (⟨ΔG polar solv ⟩) from an energy-minimized structure of a protein regardless of the minimization environment (structure minimized in vacuo, implicit or explicit waters, or crystal structure); the best case, however, is when it is paired with an in vacuo-minimized structure. In other minimization environments (implicit or explicit waters or crystal structure), the traditional two-dielectric model can still be selected with which the model produces correct solvation energies. Our observations from this work reflect how the ability to appropriately mimic the motion of residues, especially the salt bridge residues, influences a dielectric model's ability to reproduce the ensemble average value of polar solvation free energy from a single in vacuo-minimized structure.
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Bayesian Ensemble Trees (BET) for Clustering and Prediction in Heterogeneous Data
Duan, Leo L.; Clancy, John P.; Szczesniak, Rhonda D.
2016-01-01
We propose a novel “tree-averaging” model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian Ensemble Trees (BET) and model them as a Dirichlet process. We show that BET determines the optimal number of trees by adapting to the data heterogeneity. Compared with the other ensemble methods, BET requires much fewer trees and shows equivalent prediction accuracy using weighted averaging. Moreover, each tree in BET provides variable selection criterion and interpretation for each subset. We developed an efficient estimating procedure with improved estimation strategies in both CART and mixture models. We demonstrate these advantages of BET with simulations and illustrate the approach with a real-world data example involving regression of lung function measurements obtained from patients with cystic fibrosis. Supplemental materials are available online. PMID:27524872
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Ergodicity Breaking in Geometric Brownian Motion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peters, O.; Klein, W.
2013-03-01
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by nonergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time average. A common tactic for bringing time averages closer to ensemble averages is diversification. In this Letter, we study the effects of diversification using the concept of ergodicity breaking.
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Cell population modelling of yeast glycolytic oscillations.
Henson, Michael A; Müller, Dirk; Reuss, Matthias
2002-01-01
We investigated a cell-population modelling technique in which the population is constructed from an ensemble of individual cell models. The average value or the number distribution of any intracellular property captured by the individual cell model can be calculated by simulation of a sufficient number of individual cells. The proposed method is applied to a simple model of yeast glycolytic oscillations where synchronization of the cell population is mediated by the action of an excreted metabolite. We show that smooth one-dimensional distributions can be obtained with ensembles comprising 1000 individual cells. Random variations in the state and/or structure of individual cells are shown to produce complex dynamic behaviours which cannot be adequately captured by small ensembles. PMID:12206713
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Karaminis, Themelis; Neil, Louise; Manning, Catherine; Turi, Marco; Fiorentini, Chiara; Burr, David; Pellicano, Elizabeth
2018-01-01
Ensemble perception, the ability to assess automatically the summary of large amounts of information presented in visual scenes, is available early in typical development. This ability might be compromised in autistic children, who are thought to present limitations in maintaining summary statistics representations for the recent history of sensory input. Here we examined ensemble perception of facial emotional expressions in 35 autistic children, 30 age- and ability-matched typical children and 25 typical adults. Participants received three tasks: a) an 'ensemble' emotion discrimination task; b) a baseline (single-face) emotion discrimination task; and c) a facial expression identification task. Children performed worse than adults on all three tasks. Unexpectedly, autistic and typical children were, on average, indistinguishable in their precision and accuracy on all three tasks. Computational modelling suggested that, on average, autistic and typical children used ensemble-encoding strategies to a similar extent; but ensemble perception was related to non-verbal reasoning abilities in autistic but not in typical children. Eye-movement data also showed no group differences in the way children attended to the stimuli. Our combined findings suggest that the abilities of autistic and typical children for ensemble perception of emotions are comparable on average. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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Ensemble perception of emotions in autistic and typical children and adolescents.
Karaminis, Themelis; Neil, Louise; Manning, Catherine; Turi, Marco; Fiorentini, Chiara; Burr, David; Pellicano, Elizabeth
2017-04-01
Ensemble perception, the ability to assess automatically the summary of large amounts of information presented in visual scenes, is available early in typical development. This ability might be compromised in autistic children, who are thought to present limitations in maintaining summary statistics representations for the recent history of sensory input. Here we examined ensemble perception of facial emotional expressions in 35 autistic children, 30 age- and ability-matched typical children and 25 typical adults. Participants received three tasks: a) an 'ensemble' emotion discrimination task; b) a baseline (single-face) emotion discrimination task; and c) a facial expression identification task. Children performed worse than adults on all three tasks. Unexpectedly, autistic and typical children were, on average, indistinguishable in their precision and accuracy on all three tasks. Computational modelling suggested that, on average, autistic and typical children used ensemble-encoding strategies to a similar extent; but ensemble perception was related to non-verbal reasoning abilities in autistic but not in typical children. Eye-movement data also showed no group differences in the way children attended to the stimuli. Our combined findings suggest that the abilities of autistic and typical children for ensemble perception of emotions are comparable on average. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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Supermodeling With A Global Atmospheric Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wiegerinck, Wim; Burgers, Willem; Selten, Frank
2013-04-01
In weather and climate prediction studies it often turns out to be the case that the multi-model ensemble mean prediction has the best prediction skill scores. One possible explanation is that the major part of the model error is random and is averaged out in the ensemble mean. In the standard multi-model ensemble approach, the models are integrated in time independently and the predicted states are combined a posteriori. Recently an alternative ensemble prediction approach has been proposed in which the models exchange information during the simulation and synchronize on a common solution that is closer to the truth than any of the individual model solutions in the standard multi-model ensemble approach or a weighted average of these. This approach is called the super modeling approach (SUMO). The potential of the SUMO approach has been demonstrated in the context of simple, low-order, chaotic dynamical systems. The information exchange takes the form of linear nudging terms in the dynamical equations that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. With a suitable choice of the connection strengths the models synchronize on a common solution that is indeed closer to the true system than any of the individual model solutions without nudging. This approach is called connected SUMO. An alternative approach is to integrate a weighted averaged model, weighted SUMO. At each time step all models in the ensemble calculate the tendency, these tendencies are weighted averaged and the state is integrated one time step into the future with this weighted averaged tendency. It was shown that in case the connected SUMO synchronizes perfectly, the connected SUMO follows the weighted averaged trajectory and both approaches yield the same solution. In this study we pioneer both approaches in the context of a global, quasi-geostrophic, three-level atmosphere model that is capable of simulating quite realistically the extra-tropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
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Robust electroencephalogram phase estimation with applications in brain-computer interface systems.
Seraj, Esmaeil; Sameni, Reza
2017-03-01
In this study, a robust method is developed for frequency-specific electroencephalogram (EEG) phase extraction using the analytic representation of the EEG. Based on recent theoretical findings in this area, it is shown that some of the phase variations-previously associated to the brain response-are systematic side-effects of the methods used for EEG phase calculation, especially during low analytical amplitude segments of the EEG. With this insight, the proposed method generates randomized ensembles of the EEG phase using minor perturbations in the zero-pole loci of narrow-band filters, followed by phase estimation using the signal's analytical form and ensemble averaging over the randomized ensembles to obtain a robust EEG phase and frequency. This Monte Carlo estimation method is shown to be very robust to noise and minor changes of the filter parameters and reduces the effect of fake EEG phase jumps, which do not have a cerebral origin. As proof of concept, the proposed method is used for extracting EEG phase features for a brain computer interface (BCI) application. The results show significant improvement in classification rates using rather simple phase-related features and a standard K-nearest neighbors and random forest classifiers, over a standard BCI dataset. The average performance was improved between 4-7% (in absence of additive noise) and 8-12% (in presence of additive noise). The significance of these improvements was statistically confirmed by a paired sample t-test, with 0.01 and 0.03 p-values, respectively. The proposed method for EEG phase calculation is very generic and may be applied to other EEG phase-based studies.
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Estimation of Uncertainties in the Global Distance Test (GDT_TS) for CASP Models.
Li, Wenlin; Schaeffer, R Dustin; Otwinowski, Zbyszek; Grishin, Nick V
2016-01-01
The Critical Assessment of techniques for protein Structure Prediction (or CASP) is a community-wide blind test experiment to reveal the best accomplishments of structure modeling. Assessors have been using the Global Distance Test (GDT_TS) measure to quantify prediction performance since CASP3 in 1998. However, identifying significant score differences between close models is difficult because of the lack of uncertainty estimations for this measure. Here, we utilized the atomic fluctuations caused by structure flexibility to estimate the uncertainty of GDT_TS scores. Structures determined by nuclear magnetic resonance are deposited as ensembles of alternative conformers that reflect the structural flexibility, whereas standard X-ray refinement produces the static structure averaged over time and space for the dynamic ensembles. To recapitulate the structural heterogeneous ensemble in the crystal lattice, we performed time-averaged refinement for X-ray datasets to generate structural ensembles for our GDT_TS uncertainty analysis. Using those generated ensembles, our study demonstrates that the time-averaged refinements produced structure ensembles with better agreement with the experimental datasets than the averaged X-ray structures with B-factors. The uncertainty of the GDT_TS scores, quantified by their standard deviations (SDs), increases for scores lower than 50 and 70, with maximum SDs of 0.3 and 1.23 for X-ray and NMR structures, respectively. We also applied our procedure to the high accuracy version of GDT-based score and produced similar results with slightly higher SDs. To facilitate score comparisons by the community, we developed a user-friendly web server that produces structure ensembles for NMR and X-ray structures and is accessible at http://prodata.swmed.edu/SEnCS. Our work helps to identify the significance of GDT_TS score differences, as well as to provide structure ensembles for estimating SDs of any scores.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rooper, Christopher N.; Zimmermann, Mark; Prescott, Megan M.
2017-08-01
Deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems are widespread throughout most of Alaska's marine waters, and are associated with many different species of fishes and invertebrates. These ecosystems are vulnerable to the effects of commercial fishing activities and climate change. We compared four commonly used species distribution models (general linear models, generalized additive models, boosted regression trees and random forest models) and an ensemble model to predict the presence or absence and abundance of six groups of benthic invertebrate taxa in the Gulf of Alaska. All four model types performed adequately on training data for predicting presence and absence, with regression forest models having the best overall performance measured by the area under the receiver-operating-curve (AUC). The models also performed well on the test data for presence and absence with average AUCs ranging from 0.66 to 0.82. For the test data, ensemble models performed the best. For abundance data, there was an obvious demarcation in performance between the two regression-based methods (general linear models and generalized additive models), and the tree-based models. The boosted regression tree and random forest models out-performed the other models by a wide margin on both the training and testing data. However, there was a significant drop-off in performance for all models of invertebrate abundance ( 50%) when moving from the training data to the testing data. Ensemble model performance was between the tree-based and regression-based methods. The maps of predictions from the models for both presence and abundance agreed very well across model types, with an increase in variability in predictions for the abundance data. We conclude that where data conforms well to the modeled distribution (such as the presence-absence data and binomial distribution in this study), the four types of models will provide similar results, although the regression-type models may be more consistent with biological theory. For data with highly zero-inflated distributions and non-normal distributions such as the abundance data from this study, the tree-based methods performed better. Ensemble models that averaged predictions across the four model types, performed better than the GLM or GAM models but slightly poorer than the tree-based methods, suggesting ensemble models might be more robust to overfitting than tree methods, while mitigating some of the disadvantages in predictive performance of regression methods.
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Ensemble coding remains accurate under object and spatial visual working memory load.
Epstein, Michael L; Emmanouil, Tatiana A
2017-10-01
A number of studies have provided evidence that the visual system statistically summarizes large amounts of information that would exceed the limitations of attention and working memory (ensemble coding). However the necessity of working memory resources for ensemble coding has not yet been tested directly. In the current study, we used a dual task design to test the effect of object and spatial visual working memory load on size averaging accuracy. In Experiment 1, we tested participants' accuracy in comparing the mean size of two sets under various levels of object visual working memory load. Although the accuracy of average size judgments depended on the difference in mean size between the two sets, we found no effect of working memory load. In Experiment 2, we tested the same average size judgment while participants were under spatial visual working memory load, again finding no effect of load on averaging accuracy. Overall our results reveal that ensemble coding can proceed unimpeded and highly accurately under both object and spatial visual working memory load, providing further evidence that ensemble coding reflects a basic perceptual process distinct from that of individual object processing.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Olsen, Seth, E-mail: seth.olsen@uq.edu.au
2015-01-28
This paper reviews basic results from a theory of the a priori classical probabilities (weights) in state-averaged complete active space self-consistent field (SA-CASSCF) models. It addresses how the classical probabilities limit the invariance of the self-consistency condition to transformations of the complete active space configuration interaction (CAS-CI) problem. Such transformations are of interest for choosing representations of the SA-CASSCF solution that are diabatic with respect to some interaction. I achieve the known result that a SA-CASSCF can be self-consistently transformed only within degenerate subspaces of the CAS-CI ensemble density matrix. For uniformly distributed (“microcanonical”) SA-CASSCF ensembles, self-consistency is invariant tomore » any unitary CAS-CI transformation that acts locally on the ensemble support. Most SA-CASSCF applications in current literature are microcanonical. A problem with microcanonical SA-CASSCF models for problems with “more diabatic than adiabatic” states is described. The problem is that not all diabatic energies and couplings are self-consistently resolvable. A canonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF strategy is proposed to solve the problem. For canonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF, the equilibrated ensemble is a Boltzmann density matrix parametrized by its own CAS-CI Hamiltonian and a Lagrange multiplier acting as an inverse “temperature,” unrelated to the physical temperature. Like the convergence criterion for microcanonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF, the equilibration condition for canonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF is invariant to transformations that act locally on the ensemble CAS-CI density matrix. The advantage of a canonical-ensemble description is that more adiabatic states can be included in the support of the ensemble without running into convergence problems. The constraint on the dimensionality of the problem is relieved by the introduction of an energy constraint. The method is illustrated with a complete active space valence-bond (CASVB) analysis of the charge/bond resonance electronic structure of a monomethine cyanine: Michler’s hydrol blue. The diabatic CASVB representation is shown to vary weakly for “temperatures” corresponding to visible photon energies. Canonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF enables the resolution of energies and couplings for all covalent and ionic CASVB structures contributing to the SA-CASSCF ensemble. The CASVB solution describes resonance of charge- and bond-localized electronic structures interacting via bridge resonance superexchange. The resonance couplings can be separated into channels associated with either covalent charge delocalization or chemical bonding interactions, with the latter significantly stronger than the former.« less
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Olsen, Seth
2015-01-28
This paper reviews basic results from a theory of the a priori classical probabilities (weights) in state-averaged complete active space self-consistent field (SA-CASSCF) models. It addresses how the classical probabilities limit the invariance of the self-consistency condition to transformations of the complete active space configuration interaction (CAS-CI) problem. Such transformations are of interest for choosing representations of the SA-CASSCF solution that are diabatic with respect to some interaction. I achieve the known result that a SA-CASSCF can be self-consistently transformed only within degenerate subspaces of the CAS-CI ensemble density matrix. For uniformly distributed ("microcanonical") SA-CASSCF ensembles, self-consistency is invariant to any unitary CAS-CI transformation that acts locally on the ensemble support. Most SA-CASSCF applications in current literature are microcanonical. A problem with microcanonical SA-CASSCF models for problems with "more diabatic than adiabatic" states is described. The problem is that not all diabatic energies and couplings are self-consistently resolvable. A canonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF strategy is proposed to solve the problem. For canonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF, the equilibrated ensemble is a Boltzmann density matrix parametrized by its own CAS-CI Hamiltonian and a Lagrange multiplier acting as an inverse "temperature," unrelated to the physical temperature. Like the convergence criterion for microcanonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF, the equilibration condition for canonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF is invariant to transformations that act locally on the ensemble CAS-CI density matrix. The advantage of a canonical-ensemble description is that more adiabatic states can be included in the support of the ensemble without running into convergence problems. The constraint on the dimensionality of the problem is relieved by the introduction of an energy constraint. The method is illustrated with a complete active space valence-bond (CASVB) analysis of the charge/bond resonance electronic structure of a monomethine cyanine: Michler's hydrol blue. The diabatic CASVB representation is shown to vary weakly for "temperatures" corresponding to visible photon energies. Canonical-ensemble SA-CASSCF enables the resolution of energies and couplings for all covalent and ionic CASVB structures contributing to the SA-CASSCF ensemble. The CASVB solution describes resonance of charge- and bond-localized electronic structures interacting via bridge resonance superexchange. The resonance couplings can be separated into channels associated with either covalent charge delocalization or chemical bonding interactions, with the latter significantly stronger than the former.
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Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense Installations
2017-06-16
locations. The ease of use of this method and its flexibility have led to a wide variety of applications for assessing impacts of climate change 4...versions of these statistical methods to provide the basis for regional climate assessments for various states, regions, and government agencies...averaging (REA) method proposed by Giorgi and Mearns (2002). This method assigns reliability classifications for the multi-model ensemble simulation by
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Ensemble averaging and stacking of ARIMA and GSTAR model for rainfall forecasting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anggraeni, D.; Kurnia, I. F.; Hadi, A. F.
2018-04-01
Unpredictable rainfall changes can affect human activities, such as in agriculture, aviation, shipping which depend on weather forecasts. Therefore, we need forecasting tools with high accuracy in predicting the rainfall in the future. This research focus on local forcasting of the rainfall at Jember in 2005 until 2016, from 77 rainfall stations. The rainfall here was not only related to the occurrence of the previous of its stations, but also related to others, it’s called the spatial effect. The aim of this research is to apply the GSTAR model, to determine whether there are some correlations of spatial effect between one to another stations. The GSTAR model is an expansion of the space-time model that combines the time-related effects, the locations (stations) in a time series effects, and also the location it self. The GSTAR model will also be compared to the ARIMA model that completely ignores the independent variables. The forcested value of the ARIMA and of the GSTAR models then being combined using the ensemble forecasting technique. The averaging and stacking method of ensemble forecasting method here provide us the best model with higher acuracy model that has the smaller RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value. Finally, with the best model we can offer a better local rainfall forecasting in Jember for the future.
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Equilibrium energy spectrum of point vortex motion with remarks on ensemble choice and ergodicity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Esler, J. G.
2017-01-01
The dynamics and statistical mechanics of N chaotically evolving point vortices in the doubly periodic domain are revisited. The selection of the correct microcanonical ensemble for the system is first investigated. The numerical results of Weiss and McWilliams [Phys. Fluids A 3, 835 (1991), 10.1063/1.858014], who argued that the point vortex system with N =6 is nonergodic because of an apparent discrepancy between ensemble averages and dynamical time averages, are shown to be due to an incorrect ensemble definition. When the correct microcanonical ensemble is sampled, accounting for the vortex momentum constraint, time averages obtained from direct numerical simulation agree with ensemble averages within the sampling error of each calculation, i.e., there is no numerical evidence for nonergodicity. Further, in the N →∞ limit it is shown that the vortex momentum no longer constrains the long-time dynamics and therefore that the correct microcanonical ensemble for statistical mechanics is that associated with the entire constant energy hypersurface in phase space. Next, a recently developed technique is used to generate an explicit formula for the density of states function for the system, including for arbitrary distributions of vortex circulations. Exact formulas for the equilibrium energy spectrum, and for the probability density function of the energy in each Fourier mode, are then obtained. Results are compared with a series of direct numerical simulations with N =50 and excellent agreement is found, confirming the relevance of the results for interpretation of quantum and classical two-dimensional turbulence.
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Ensemble coding of face identity is present but weaker in congenital prosopagnosia.
Robson, Matthew K; Palermo, Romina; Jeffery, Linda; Neumann, Markus F
2018-03-01
Individuals with congenital prosopagnosia (CP) are impaired at identifying individual faces but do not appear to show impairments in extracting the average identity from a group of faces (known as ensemble coding). However, possible deficits in ensemble coding in a previous study (CPs n = 4) may have been masked because CPs relied on pictorial (image) cues rather than identity cues. Here we asked whether a larger sample of CPs (n = 11) would show intact ensemble coding of identity when availability of image cues was minimised. Participants viewed a "set" of four faces and then judged whether a subsequent individual test face, either an exemplar or a "set average", was in the preceding set. Ensemble coding occurred when matching (vs. mismatching) averages were mistakenly endorsed as set members. We assessed both image- and identity-based ensemble coding, by varying whether test faces were either the same or different images of the identities in the set. CPs showed significant ensemble coding in both tasks, indicating that their performance was independent of image cues. As a group, CPs' ensemble coding was weaker than controls in both tasks, consistent with evidence that perceptual processing of face identity is disrupted in CP. This effect was driven by CPs (n= 3) who, in addition to having impaired face memory, also performed particularly poorly on a measure of face perception (CFPT). Future research, using larger samples, should examine whether deficits in ensemble coding may be restricted to CPs who also have substantial face perception deficits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shan, Y.; Eric, W.; Gao, L.; Zhao, T.; Yin, Y.
2015-12-01
In this study, we have evaluated the performance of size distribution functions (SDF) with 2- and 3-moments in fitting the observed size distribution of rain droplets at three different heights. The goal is to improve the microphysics schemes in meso-scale models, such as Weather Research and Forecast (WRF). Rain droplets were observed during eight periods of different rain types at three stations on the Yellow Mountain in East China. The SDF in this study were M-P distribution with a fixed shape parameter in Gamma SDF(FSP). Where the Gamma SDFs were obtained with three diagnosis methods with the shape parameters based on Milbrandt (2010; denoted DSPM10), Milbrandt (2005; denoted DSPM05) and Seifert (2008; denoted DSPS08) for solving the shape parameter(SSP) and Lognormal SDF. Based on the preliminary experiments, three ensemble methods deciding Gamma SDF was also developed and assessed. The magnitude of average relative error caused by applying a FSP was 10-2 for fitting 0-order moment of the observed rain droplet distribution, and the magnitude of average relative error changed to 10-1 and 100 respectively for 1-4 order moments and 5-6 order moments. To different extent, DSPM10, DSPM05, DSPS08, SSP and ensemble methods could improve fitting accuracies for 0-6 order moments, especially the one coupling SSP and DSPS08 methods, which provided a average relative error 6.46% for 1-4 order moments and 11.90% for 5-6 order moments, respectively. The relative error of fitting three moments using the Lognormal SDF was much larger than that of Gamma SDF. The threshold value of shape parameter ranged from 0 to 8, because values beyond this range could cause overflow in the calculation. When average diameter of rain droplets was less than 2mm, the possibility of unavailable shape parameter value(USPV) increased with a decreasing droplet size. There was strong sensitivity of moment group in fitting accuracy. When ensemble method coupling SSP and DSPS08 was used, a better fit to 1-3-5 moments of the SDF was possible compared to fitting the 0-3-6 moment group.
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Decadal climate prediction in the large ensemble limit
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yeager, S. G.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Strand, G.; Lindsay, K. T.; Danabasoglu, G.; Karspeck, A. R.; Bates, S. C.; Meehl, G. A.
2017-12-01
In order to quantify the benefits of initialization for climate prediction on decadal timescales, two parallel sets of historical simulations are required: one "initialized" ensemble that incorporates observations of past climate states and one "uninitialized" ensemble whose internal climate variations evolve freely and without synchronicity. In the large ensemble limit, ensemble averaging isolates potentially predictable forced and internal variance components in the "initialized" set, but only the forced variance remains after averaging the "uninitialized" set. The ensemble size needed to achieve this variance decomposition, and to robustly distinguish initialized from uninitialized decadal predictions, remains poorly constrained. We examine a large ensemble (LE) of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments carried out using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This 40-member CESM-DP-LE set of experiments represents the "initialized" complement to the CESM large ensemble of 20th century runs (CESM-LE) documented in Kay et al. (2015). Both simulation sets share the same model configuration, historical radiative forcings, and large ensemble sizes. The twin experiments afford an unprecedented opportunity to explore the sensitivity of DP skill assessment, and in particular the skill enhancement associated with initialization, to ensemble size. This talk will highlight the benefits of a large ensemble size for initialized predictions of seasonal climate over land in the Atlantic sector as well as predictions of shifts in the likelihood of climate extremes that have large societal impact.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, Feifei; Xu, Dongmei; Xue, Ming; Min, Jinzhong
2017-07-01
This study examines the impacts of assimilating radar radial velocity (Vr) data for the simulation of hurricane Ike (2008) with two different ensemble generation techniques in the framework of the hybrid ensemble-variational (EnVar) data assimilation system of Weather Research and Forecasting model. For the generation of ensemble perturbations we apply two techniques, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and the ensemble of data assimilation (EDA). For the ETKF-EnVar, the forecast ensemble perturbations are updated by the ETKF, while for the EDA-EnVar, the hybrid is employed to update each ensemble member with perturbed observations. The ensemble mean is analyzed by the hybrid method with flow-dependent ensemble covariance for both EnVar. The sensitivity of analyses and forecasts to the two applied ensemble generation techniques is investigated in our current study. It is found that the EnVar system is rather stable with different ensemble update techniques in terms of its skill on improving the analyses and forecasts. The EDA-EnVar-based ensemble perturbations are likely to include slightly less organized spatial structures than those in ETKF-EnVar, and the perturbations of the latter are constructed more dynamically. Detailed diagnostics reveal that both of the EnVar schemes not only produce positive temperature increments around the hurricane center but also systematically adjust the hurricane location with the hurricane-specific error covariance. On average, the analysis and forecast from the ETKF-EnVar have slightly smaller errors than that from the EDA-EnVar in terms of track, intensity, and precipitation forecast. Moreover, ETKF-EnVar yields better forecasts when verified against conventional observations.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beckman, Robert A.; Moreland, David; Louise-May, Shirley; Humblet, Christine
2006-05-01
Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) provides structural and dynamic information reflecting an average, often non-linear, of multiple solution-state conformations. Therefore, a single optimized structure derived from NMR refinement may be misleading if the NMR data actually result from averaging of distinct conformers. It is hypothesized that a conformational ensemble generated by a valid molecular dynamics (MD) simulation should be able to improve agreement with the NMR data set compared with the single optimized starting structure. Using a model system consisting of two sequence-related self-complementary ribonucleotide octamers for which NMR data was available, 0.3 ns particle mesh Ewald MD simulations were performed in the AMBER force field in the presence of explicit water and counterions. Agreement of the averaged properties of the molecular dynamics ensembles with NMR data such as homonuclear proton nuclear Overhauser effect (NOE)-based distance constraints, homonuclear proton and heteronuclear 1H-31P coupling constant ( J) data, and qualitative NMR information on hydrogen bond occupancy, was systematically assessed. Despite the short length of the simulation, the ensemble generated from it agreed with the NMR experimental constraints more completely than the single optimized NMR structure. This suggests that short unrestrained MD simulations may be of utility in interpreting NMR results. As expected, a 0.5 ns simulation utilizing a distance dependent dielectric did not improve agreement with the NMR data, consistent with its inferior exploration of conformational space as assessed by 2-D RMSD plots. Thus, ability to rapidly improve agreement with NMR constraints may be a sensitive diagnostic of the MD methods themselves.
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Single-ping ADCP measurements in the Strait of Gibraltar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sammartino, Simone; García Lafuente, Jesús; Naranjo, Cristina; Sánchez Garrido, José Carlos; Sánchez Leal, Ricardo
2016-04-01
In most Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) user manuals, it is widely recommended to apply ensemble averaging of the single-pings measurements, in order to obtain reliable observations of the current speed. The random error related to the single-ping measurement is typically too high to be used directly, while the averaging operation reduces the ensemble error of a factor of approximately √N, with N the number of averaged pings. A 75 kHz ADCP moored in the western exit of the Strait of Gibraltar, included in the long-term monitoring of the Mediterranean outflow, has recently served as test setup for a different approach to current measurements. The ensemble averaging has been disabled, while maintaining the internal coordinate conversion made by the instrument, and a series of single-ping measurements has been collected every 36 seconds during a period of approximately 5 months. The huge amount of data has been fluently handled by the instrument, and no abnormal battery consumption has been recorded. On the other hand a long and unique series of very high frequency current measurements has been collected. Results of this novel approach have been exploited in a dual way: from a statistical point of view, the availability of single-ping measurements allows a real estimate of the (a posteriori) ensemble average error of both current and ancillary variables. While the theoretical random error for horizontal velocity is estimated a priori as ˜2 cm s-1 for a 50 pings ensemble, the value obtained by the a posteriori averaging is ˜15 cm s-1, with an asymptotical behavior starting from an averaging size of 10 pings per ensemble. This result suggests the presence of external sources of random error (e.g.: turbulence), of higher magnitude than the internal sources (ADCP intrinsic precision), which cannot be reduced by the ensemble averaging. On the other hand, although the instrumental configuration is clearly not suitable for a precise estimation of turbulent parameters, some hints of the turbulent structure of the flow can be obtained by the empirical computation of zonal Reynolds stress (along the predominant direction of the current) and rate of production and dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy. All the parameters show a clear correlation with tidal fluctuations of the current, with maximum values coinciding with flood tides, during the maxima of the outflow Mediterranean current.
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Infinitely dilute partial molar properties of proteins from computer simulation.
Ploetz, Elizabeth A; Smith, Paul E
2014-11-13
A detailed understanding of temperature and pressure effects on an infinitely dilute protein's conformational equilibrium requires knowledge of the corresponding infinitely dilute partial molar properties. Established molecular dynamics methodologies generally have not provided a way to calculate these properties without either a loss of thermodynamic rigor, the introduction of nonunique parameters, or a loss of information about which solute conformations specifically contributed to the output values. Here we implement a simple method that is thermodynamically rigorous and possesses none of the above disadvantages, and we report on the method's feasibility and computational demands. We calculate infinitely dilute partial molar properties for two proteins and attempt to distinguish the thermodynamic differences between a native and a denatured conformation of a designed miniprotein. We conclude that simple ensemble average properties can be calculated with very reasonable amounts of computational power. In contrast, properties corresponding to fluctuating quantities are computationally demanding to calculate precisely, although they can be obtained more easily by following the temperature and/or pressure dependence of the corresponding ensemble averages.
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A frequency domain analysis of respiratory variations in the seismocardiogram signal.
Pandia, Keya; Inan, Omer T; Kovacs, Gregory T A
2013-01-01
The seismocardiogram (SCG) signal traditionally measured using a chest-mounted accelerometer contains low-frequency (0-100 Hz) cardiac vibrations that can be used to derive diagnostically relevant information about cardiovascular and cardiopulmonary health. This work is aimed at investigating the effects of respiration on the frequency domain characteristics of SCG signals measured from 18 healthy subjects. Toward this end, the 0-100 Hz SCG signal bandwidth of interest was sub-divided into 5 Hz and 10 Hz frequency bins to compare the spectral energy in corresponding frequency bins of the SCG signal measured during three key conditions of respiration--inspiration, expiration, and apnea. Statistically significant differences were observed between the power in ensemble averaged inspiratory and expiratory SCG beats and between ensemble averaged inspiratory and apneaic beats across the 18 subjects for multiple frequency bins in the 10-40 Hz frequency range. Accordingly, the spectral analysis methods described in this paper could provide complementary and improved classification of respiratory modulations in the SCG signal over and above time-domain SCG analysis methods.
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Piao, Yongjun; Piao, Minghao; Ryu, Keun Ho
2017-01-01
Cancer classification has been a crucial topic of research in cancer treatment. In the last decade, messenger RNA (mRNA) expression profiles have been widely used to classify different types of cancers. With the discovery of a new class of small non-coding RNAs; known as microRNAs (miRNAs), various studies have shown that the expression patterns of miRNA can also accurately classify human cancers. Therefore, there is a great demand for the development of machine learning approaches to accurately classify various types of cancers using miRNA expression data. In this article, we propose a feature subset-based ensemble method in which each model is learned from a different projection of the original feature space to classify multiple cancers. In our method, the feature relevance and redundancy are considered to generate multiple feature subsets, the base classifiers are learned from each independent miRNA subset, and the average posterior probability is used to combine the base classifiers. To test the performance of our method, we used bead-based and sequence-based miRNA expression datasets and conducted 10-fold and leave-one-out cross validations. The experimental results show that the proposed method yields good results and has higher prediction accuracy than popular ensemble methods. The Java program and source code of the proposed method and the datasets in the experiments are freely available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/mirna-ensemble/. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Generalized ensemble theory with non-extensive statistics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, Ke-Ming; Zhang, Ben-Wei; Wang, En-Ke
2017-12-01
The non-extensive canonical ensemble theory is reconsidered with the method of Lagrange multipliers by maximizing Tsallis entropy, with the constraint that the normalized term of Tsallis' q -average of physical quantities, the sum ∑ pjq, is independent of the probability pi for Tsallis parameter q. The self-referential problem in the deduced probability and thermal quantities in non-extensive statistics is thus avoided, and thermodynamical relationships are obtained in a consistent and natural way. We also extend the study to the non-extensive grand canonical ensemble theory and obtain the q-deformed Bose-Einstein distribution as well as the q-deformed Fermi-Dirac distribution. The theory is further applied to the generalized Planck law to demonstrate the distinct behaviors of the various generalized q-distribution functions discussed in literature.
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Filatov, Michael; Martínez, Todd J.; Kim, Kwang S.
2017-08-14
An extended variant of the spin-restricted ensemble-referenced Kohn-Sham (REKS) method, the REKS(4,4) method, designed to describe the ground electronic states of strongly multireference systems is modified to enable calculation of excited states within the time-independent variational formalism. The new method, the state-interaction state-averaged REKS(4,4), i.e., SI-SA-REKS(4,4), is capable of describing several excited states of a molecule involving double bond cleavage, polyradical character, or multiple chromophoric units.We demonstrate that the newmethod correctly describes the ground and the lowest singlet excited states of a molecule (ethylene) undergoing double bond cleavage. The applicability of the new method for excitonic states is illustrated withmore » π stacked ethylene and tetracene dimers. We conclude that the new method can describe a wide range of multireference phenomena.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Filatov, Michael; Martínez, Todd J.; Kim, Kwang S.
An extended variant of the spin-restricted ensemble-referenced Kohn-Sham (REKS) method, the REKS(4,4) method, designed to describe the ground electronic states of strongly multireference systems is modified to enable calculation of excited states within the time-independent variational formalism. The new method, the state-interaction state-averaged REKS(4,4), i.e., SI-SA-REKS(4,4), is capable of describing several excited states of a molecule involving double bond cleavage, polyradical character, or multiple chromophoric units.We demonstrate that the newmethod correctly describes the ground and the lowest singlet excited states of a molecule (ethylene) undergoing double bond cleavage. The applicability of the new method for excitonic states is illustrated withmore » π stacked ethylene and tetracene dimers. We conclude that the new method can describe a wide range of multireference phenomena.« less
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Interpolation of property-values between electron numbers is inconsistent with ensemble averaging
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Miranda-Quintana, Ramón Alain; Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M1; Ayers, Paul W.
2016-06-28
In this work we explore the physical foundations of models that study the variation of the ground state energy with respect to the number of electrons (E vs. N models), in terms of general grand-canonical (GC) ensemble formulations. In particular, we focus on E vs. N models that interpolate the energy between states with integer number of electrons. We show that if the interpolation of the energy corresponds to a GC ensemble, it is not differentiable. Conversely, if the interpolation is smooth, then it cannot be formulated as any GC ensemble. This proves that interpolation of electronic properties between integermore » electron numbers is inconsistent with any form of ensemble averaging. This emphasizes the role of derivative discontinuities and the critical role of a subsystem’s surroundings in determining its properties.« less
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The random coding bound is tight for the average code.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gallager, R. G.
1973-01-01
The random coding bound of information theory provides a well-known upper bound to the probability of decoding error for the best code of a given rate and block length. The bound is constructed by upperbounding the average error probability over an ensemble of codes. The bound is known to give the correct exponential dependence of error probability on block length for transmission rates above the critical rate, but it gives an incorrect exponential dependence at rates below a second lower critical rate. Here we derive an asymptotic expression for the average error probability over the ensemble of codes used in the random coding bound. The result shows that the weakness of the random coding bound at rates below the second critical rate is due not to upperbounding the ensemble average, but rather to the fact that the best codes are much better than the average at low rates.
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Mathematical foundations of hybrid data assimilation from a synchronization perspective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Penny, Stephen G.
2017-12-01
The state-of-the-art data assimilation methods used today in operational weather prediction centers around the world can be classified as generalized one-way coupled impulsive synchronization. This classification permits the investigation of hybrid data assimilation methods, which combine dynamic error estimates of the system state with long time-averaged (climatological) error estimates, from a synchronization perspective. Illustrative results show how dynamically informed formulations of the coupling matrix (via an Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF) can lead to synchronization when observing networks are sparse and how hybrid methods can lead to synchronization when those dynamic formulations are inadequate (due to small ensemble sizes). A large-scale application with a global ocean general circulation model is also presented. Results indicate that the hybrid methods also have useful applications in generalized synchronization, in particular, for correcting systematic model errors.
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Mathematical foundations of hybrid data assimilation from a synchronization perspective.
Penny, Stephen G
2017-12-01
The state-of-the-art data assimilation methods used today in operational weather prediction centers around the world can be classified as generalized one-way coupled impulsive synchronization. This classification permits the investigation of hybrid data assimilation methods, which combine dynamic error estimates of the system state with long time-averaged (climatological) error estimates, from a synchronization perspective. Illustrative results show how dynamically informed formulations of the coupling matrix (via an Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF) can lead to synchronization when observing networks are sparse and how hybrid methods can lead to synchronization when those dynamic formulations are inadequate (due to small ensemble sizes). A large-scale application with a global ocean general circulation model is also presented. Results indicate that the hybrid methods also have useful applications in generalized synchronization, in particular, for correcting systematic model errors.
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Collell, Guillem; Prelec, Drazen; Patil, Kaustubh R
2018-01-31
Class imbalance presents a major hurdle in the application of classification methods. A commonly taken approach is to learn ensembles of classifiers using rebalanced data. Examples include bootstrap averaging (bagging) combined with either undersampling or oversampling of the minority class examples. However, rebalancing methods entail asymmetric changes to the examples of different classes, which in turn can introduce their own biases. Furthermore, these methods often require specifying the performance measure of interest a priori, i.e., before learning. An alternative is to employ the threshold moving technique, which applies a threshold to the continuous output of a model, offering the possibility to adapt to a performance measure a posteriori , i.e., a plug-in method. Surprisingly, little attention has been paid to this combination of a bagging ensemble and threshold-moving. In this paper, we study this combination and demonstrate its competitiveness. Contrary to the other resampling methods, we preserve the natural class distribution of the data resulting in well-calibrated posterior probabilities. Additionally, we extend the proposed method to handle multiclass data. We validated our method on binary and multiclass benchmark data sets by using both, decision trees and neural networks as base classifiers. We perform analyses that provide insights into the proposed method.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dessler, Andrew E.; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn
2018-04-01
Our climate is constrained by the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and terrestrial energy radiated to space. This energy balance has been widely used to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from observations of 20th-century warming. Such estimates yield lower values than other methods, and these have been influential in pushing down the consensus ECS range in recent assessments. Here we test the method using a 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.1) simulations of the period 1850-2005 with known forcing. We calculate ECS in each ensemble member using energy balance, yielding values ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 K. The spread in the ensemble is related to the central assumption in the energy budget framework: that global average surface temperature anomalies are indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy (either of terrestrial origin or reflected solar energy). We find that this assumption is not well supported over the historical temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations. We find that framing energy balance in terms of 500 hPa tropical temperature better describes the planet's energy balance.
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On the Likely Utility of Hybrid Weights Optimized for Variances in Hybrid Error Covariance Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Satterfield, E.; Hodyss, D.; Kuhl, D.; Bishop, C. H.
2017-12-01
Because of imperfections in ensemble data assimilation schemes, one cannot assume that the ensemble covariance is equal to the true error covariance of a forecast. Previous work demonstrated how information about the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance can be revealed from an archive of (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs. Here, we derive a simple and intuitively compelling formula to obtain the mean of this distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance from (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs produced by a single run of a data assimilation system. This formula takes the form of a Hybrid weighted average of the climatological forecast error variance and the ensemble sample variance. Here, we test the extent to which these readily obtainable weights can be used to rapidly optimize the covariance weights used in Hybrid data assimilation systems that employ weighted averages of static covariance models and flow-dependent ensemble based covariance models. Univariate data assimilation and multi-variate cycling ensemble data assimilation are considered. In both cases, it is found that our computationally efficient formula gives Hybrid weights that closely approximate the optimal weights found through the simple but computationally expensive process of testing every plausible combination of weights.
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Nogal, Bartek; Bowman, Charles A.; Ward, Andrew B.
2017-01-01
Several biophysical approaches are available to study protein–protein interactions. Most approaches are conducted in bulk solution, and are therefore limited to an average measurement of the ensemble of molecular interactions. Here, we show how single-particle EM can enrich our understanding of protein–protein interactions at the single-molecule level and potentially capture states that are unobservable with ensemble methods because they are below the limit of detection or not conducted on an appropriate time scale. Using the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) and its interaction with receptor CD4-binding site neutralizing antibodies as a model system, we both corroborate ensemble kinetics-derived parameters and demonstrate how time-course EM can further dissect stoichiometric states of complexes that are not readily observable with other methods. Visualization of the kinetics and stoichiometry of Env–antibody complexes demonstrated the applicability of our approach to qualitatively and semi-quantitatively differentiate two highly similar neutralizing antibodies. Furthermore, implementation of machine-learning techniques for sorting class averages of these complexes into discrete subclasses of particles helped reduce human bias. Our data provide proof of concept that single-particle EM can be used to generate a “visual” kinetic profile that should be amenable to studying many other protein–protein interactions, is relatively simple and complementary to well-established biophysical approaches. Moreover, our method provides critical insights into broadly neutralizing antibody recognition of Env, which may inform vaccine immunogen design and immunotherapeutic development. PMID:28972148
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Capturing Three-Dimensional Genome Organization in Individual Cells by Single-Cell Hi-C.
Nagano, Takashi; Wingett, Steven W; Fraser, Peter
2017-01-01
Hi-C is a powerful method to investigate genome-wide, higher-order chromatin and chromosome conformations averaged from a population of cells. To expand the potential of Hi-C for single-cell analysis, we developed single-cell Hi-C. Similar to the existing "ensemble" Hi-C method, single-cell Hi-C detects proximity-dependent ligation events between cross-linked and restriction-digested chromatin fragments in cells. A major difference between the single-cell Hi-C and ensemble Hi-C protocol is that the proximity-dependent ligation is carried out in the nucleus. This allows the isolation of individual cells in which nearly the entire Hi-C procedure has been carried out, enabling the production of a Hi-C library and data from individual cells. With this new method, we studied genome conformations and found evidence for conserved topological domain organization from cell to cell, but highly variable interdomain contacts and chromosome folding genome wide. In addition, we found that the single-cell Hi-C protocol provided cleaner results with less technical noise suggesting it could be used to improve the ensemble Hi-C technique.
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Improved estimation of anomalous diffusion exponents in single-particle tracking experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kepten, Eldad; Bronshtein, Irena; Garini, Yuval
2013-05-01
The mean square displacement is a central tool in the analysis of single-particle tracking experiments, shedding light on various biophysical phenomena. Frequently, parameters are extracted by performing time averages on single-particle trajectories followed by ensemble averaging. This procedure, however, suffers from two systematic errors when applied to particles that perform anomalous diffusion. The first is significant at short-time lags and is induced by measurement errors. The second arises from the natural heterogeneity in biophysical systems. We show how to estimate and correct these two errors and improve the estimation of the anomalous parameters for the whole particle distribution. As a consequence, we manage to characterize ensembles of heterogeneous particles even for rather short and noisy measurements where regular time-averaged mean square displacement analysis fails. We apply this method to both simulations and in vivo measurements of telomere diffusion in 3T3 mouse embryonic fibroblast cells. The motion of telomeres is found to be subdiffusive with an average exponent constant in time. Individual telomere exponents are normally distributed around the average exponent. The proposed methodology has the potential to improve experimental accuracy while maintaining lower experimental costs and complexity.
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A Fuzzy Integral Ensemble Method in Visual P300 Brain-Computer Interface.
Cavrini, Francesco; Bianchi, Luigi; Quitadamo, Lucia Rita; Saggio, Giovanni
2016-01-01
We evaluate the possibility of application of combination of classifiers using fuzzy measures and integrals to Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) based on electroencephalography. In particular, we present an ensemble method that can be applied to a variety of systems and evaluate it in the context of a visual P300-based BCI. Offline analysis of data relative to 5 subjects lets us argue that the proposed classification strategy is suitable for BCI. Indeed, the achieved performance is significantly greater than the average of the base classifiers and, broadly speaking, similar to that of the best one. Thus the proposed methodology allows realizing systems that can be used by different subjects without the need for a preliminary configuration phase in which the best classifier for each user has to be identified. Moreover, the ensemble is often capable of detecting uncertain situations and turning them from misclassifications into abstentions, thereby improving the level of safety in BCI for environmental or device control.
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Optimized Free Energies from Bidirectional Single-Molecule Force Spectroscopy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Minh, David D. L.; Adib, Artur B.
2008-05-01
An optimized method for estimating path-ensemble averages using data from processes driven in opposite directions is presented. Based on this estimator, bidirectional expressions for reconstructing free energies and potentials of mean force from single-molecule force spectroscopy—valid for biasing potentials of arbitrary stiffness—are developed. Numerical simulations on a model potential indicate that these methods perform better than unidirectional strategies.
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Characterizing RNA ensembles from NMR data with kinematic models
Fonseca, Rasmus; Pachov, Dimitar V.; Bernauer, Julie; van den Bedem, Henry
2014-01-01
Functional mechanisms of biomolecules often manifest themselves precisely in transient conformational substates. Researchers have long sought to structurally characterize dynamic processes in non-coding RNA, combining experimental data with computer algorithms. However, adequate exploration of conformational space for these highly dynamic molecules, starting from static crystal structures, remains challenging. Here, we report a new conformational sampling procedure, KGSrna, which can efficiently probe the native ensemble of RNA molecules in solution. We found that KGSrna ensembles accurately represent the conformational landscapes of 3D RNA encoded by NMR proton chemical shifts. KGSrna resolves motionally averaged NMR data into structural contributions; when coupled with residual dipolar coupling data, a KGSrna ensemble revealed a previously uncharacterized transient excited state of the HIV-1 trans-activation response element stem–loop. Ensemble-based interpretations of averaged data can aid in formulating and testing dynamic, motion-based hypotheses of functional mechanisms in RNAs with broad implications for RNA engineering and therapeutic intervention. PMID:25114056
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Experimental and Computational Analysis of Modes in a Partially Constrained Plate
2004-03-01
way to quantify a structure. One technique utilizing an energy method is the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). The SEA process involves regarding...B.R. Mace. “ Statistical Energy Analysis of Two Edge- Coupled Rectangular Plates: Ensemble Averages,” Journal of Sound and Vibration, 193(4): 793-822
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Evaluating average and atypical response in radiation effects simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weller, R. A.; Sternberg, A. L.; Massengill, L. W.; Schrimpf, R. D.; Fleetwood, D. M.
2003-12-01
We examine the limits of performing single-event simulations using pre-averaged radiation events. Geant4 simulations show the necessity, for future devices, to supplement current methods with ensemble averaging of device-level responses to physically realistic radiation events. Initial Monte Carlo simulations have generated a significant number of extremal events in local energy deposition. These simulations strongly suggest that proton strikes of sufficient energy, even those that initiate purely electronic interactions, can initiate device response capable in principle of producing single event upset or microdose damage in highly scaled devices.
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Inferring properties of disordered chains from FRET transfer efficiencies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, Wenwei; Zerze, Gül H.; Borgia, Alessandro; Mittal, Jeetain; Schuler, Benjamin; Best, Robert B.
2018-03-01
Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) is a powerful tool for elucidating both structural and dynamic properties of unfolded or disordered biomolecules, especially in single-molecule experiments. However, the key observables, namely, the mean transfer efficiency and fluorescence lifetimes of the donor and acceptor chromophores, are averaged over a broad distribution of donor-acceptor distances. The inferred average properties of the ensemble therefore depend on the form of the model distribution chosen to describe the distance, as has been widely recognized. In addition, while the distribution for one type of polymer model may be appropriate for a chain under a given set of physico-chemical conditions, it may not be suitable for the same chain in a different environment so that even an apparently consistent application of the same model over all conditions may distort the apparent changes in chain dimensions with variation of temperature or solution composition. Here, we present an alternative and straightforward approach to determining ensemble properties from FRET data, in which the polymer scaling exponent is allowed to vary with solution conditions. In its simplest form, it requires either the mean FRET efficiency or fluorescence lifetime information. In order to test the accuracy of the method, we have utilized both synthetic FRET data from implicit and explicit solvent simulations for 30 different protein sequences, and experimental single-molecule FRET data for an intrinsically disordered and a denatured protein. In all cases, we find that the inferred radii of gyration are within 10% of the true values, thus providing higher accuracy than simpler polymer models. In addition, the scaling exponents obtained by our procedure are in good agreement with those determined directly from the molecular ensemble. Our approach can in principle be generalized to treating other ensemble-averaged functions of intramolecular distances from experimental data.
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Determination of ensemble-average pairwise root mean-square deviation from experimental B-factors.
Kuzmanic, Antonija; Zagrovic, Bojan
2010-03-03
Root mean-square deviation (RMSD) after roto-translational least-squares fitting is a measure of global structural similarity of macromolecules used commonly. On the other hand, experimental x-ray B-factors are used frequently to study local structural heterogeneity and dynamics in macromolecules by providing direct information about root mean-square fluctuations (RMSF) that can also be calculated from molecular dynamics simulations. We provide a mathematical derivation showing that, given a set of conservative assumptions, a root mean-square ensemble-average of an all-against-all distribution of pairwise RMSD for a single molecular species,
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Determination of Ensemble-Average Pairwise Root Mean-Square Deviation from Experimental B-Factors
Kuzmanic, Antonija; Zagrovic, Bojan
2010-01-01
Abstract Root mean-square deviation (RMSD) after roto-translational least-squares fitting is a measure of global structural similarity of macromolecules used commonly. On the other hand, experimental x-ray B-factors are used frequently to study local structural heterogeneity and dynamics in macromolecules by providing direct information about root mean-square fluctuations (RMSF) that can also be calculated from molecular dynamics simulations. We provide a mathematical derivation showing that, given a set of conservative assumptions, a root mean-square ensemble-average of an all-against-all distribution of pairwise RMSD for a single molecular species,
1/2, is directly related to average B-factors () and 1/2. We show this relationship and explore its limits of validity on a heterogeneous ensemble of structures taken from molecular dynamics simulations of villin headpiece generated using distributed-computing techniques and the Folding@Home cluster. Our results provide a basis for quantifying global structural diversity of macromolecules in crystals directly from x-ray experiments, and we show this on a large set of structures taken from the Protein Data Bank. In particular, we show that the ensemble-average pairwise backbone RMSD for a microscopic ensemble underlying a typical protein x-ray structure is ∼1.1 Å, under the assumption that the principal contribution to experimental B-factors is conformational variability. PMID:20197040 -
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yongye, Austin B.; Bender, Andreas; Martínez-Mayorga, Karina
2010-08-01
Representing the 3D structures of ligands in virtual screenings via multi-conformer ensembles can be computationally intensive, especially for compounds with a large number of rotatable bonds. Thus, reducing the size of multi-conformer databases and the number of query conformers, while simultaneously reproducing the bioactive conformer with good accuracy, is of crucial interest. While clustering and RMSD filtering methods are employed in existing conformer generators, the novelty of this work is the inclusion of a clustering scheme (NMRCLUST) that does not require a user-defined cut-off value. This algorithm simultaneously optimizes the number and the average spread of the clusters. Here we describe and test four inter-dependent approaches for selecting computer-generated conformers, namely: OMEGA, NMRCLUST, RMS filtering and averaged- RMS filtering. The bioactive conformations of 65 selected ligands were extracted from the corresponding protein:ligand complexes from the Protein Data Bank, including eight ligands that adopted dissimilar bound conformations within different receptors. We show that NMRCLUST can be employed to further filter OMEGA-generated conformers while maintaining biological relevance of the ensemble. It was observed that NMRCLUST (containing on average 10 times fewer conformers per compound) performed nearly as well as OMEGA, and both outperformed RMS filtering and averaged- RMS filtering in terms of identifying the bioactive conformations with excellent and good matches (0.5 < RMSD < 1.0 Å). Furthermore, we propose thresholds for OMEGA root-mean square filtering depending on the number of rotors in a compound: 0.8, 1.0 and 1.4 for structures with low (1-4), medium (5-9) and high (10-15) numbers of rotatable bonds, respectively. The protocol employed is general and can be applied to reduce the number of conformers in multi-conformer compound collections and alleviate the complexity of downstream data processing in virtual screening experiments.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn
2016-04-01
Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending on where they are situated and the hydrological regime. There is an improvement in CRPS for all catchments compared to raw EPS ensembles. The improvement is up to lead-time 5-7. The postprocessing also improves the MAE for the median of the predictive PDF compared to the median of the raw EPS. But less compared to CRPS, often up to lead-time 2-3. The streamflow ensembles are to some extent used operationally in Statkraft Energi (Hydro Power company, Norway), with respect to early warning, risk assessment and decision-making. Presently all forecast used operationally for short-term scheduling are deterministic, but ensembles are used visually for expert assessment of risk in difficult situations where e.g. there is a chance of overflow in a reservoir. However, there are plans to incorporate ensembles in the daily scheduling of hydropower production.
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A new transform for the analysis of complex fractionated atrial electrograms
2011-01-01
Background Representation of independent biophysical sources using Fourier analysis can be inefficient because the basis is sinusoidal and general. When complex fractionated atrial electrograms (CFAE) are acquired during atrial fibrillation (AF), the electrogram morphology depends on the mix of distinct nonsinusoidal generators. Identification of these generators using efficient methods of representation and comparison would be useful for targeting catheter ablation sites to prevent arrhythmia reinduction. Method A data-driven basis and transform is described which utilizes the ensemble average of signal segments to identify and distinguish CFAE morphologic components and frequencies. Calculation of the dominant frequency (DF) of actual CFAE, and identification of simulated independent generator frequencies and morphologies embedded in CFAE, is done using a total of 216 recordings from 10 paroxysmal and 10 persistent AF patients. The transform is tested versus Fourier analysis to detect spectral components in the presence of phase noise and interference. Correspondence is shown between ensemble basis vectors of highest power and corresponding synthetic drivers embedded in CFAE. Results The ensemble basis is orthogonal, and efficient for representation of CFAE components as compared with Fourier analysis (p ≤ 0.002). When three synthetic drivers with additive phase noise and interference were decomposed, the top three peaks in the ensemble power spectrum corresponded to the driver frequencies more closely as compared with top Fourier power spectrum peaks (p ≤ 0.005). The synthesized drivers with phase noise and interference were extractable from their corresponding ensemble basis with a mean error of less than 10%. Conclusions The new transform is able to efficiently identify CFAE features using DF calculation and by discerning morphologic differences. Unlike the Fourier transform method, it does not distort CFAE signals prior to analysis, and is relatively robust to jitter in periodic events. Thus the ensemble method can provide a useful alternative for quantitative characterization of CFAE during clinical study. PMID:21569421
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Variety and volatility in financial markets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.
2000-11-01
We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties of both a single time series and an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the n stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange to form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days with the exception of crash and rally days and of the days following these extreme events. We analyze each ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. We observe that these moments fluctuate in time and are stochastic processes, themselves. We characterize the statistical properties of ensemble return distribution central moments by investigating their probability density functions and temporal correlation properties. In general, time-averaged and portfolio-averaged price returns have different statistical properties. We infer from these differences information about the relative strength of correlation between stocks and between different trading days. Last, we compare our empirical results with those predicted by the single-index model and we conclude that this simple model cannot explain the statistical properties of the second moment of the ensemble return distribution.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang
2016-07-01
This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.
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Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.
2009-01-01
This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models. Crown Copyright ?? 2008.
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Meta-heuristic CRPS minimization for the calibration of short-range probabilistic forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mohammadi, Seyedeh Atefeh; Rahmani, Morteza; Azadi, Majid
2016-08-01
This paper deals with the probabilistic short-range temperature forecasts over synoptic meteorological stations across Iran using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR). NGR creates a Gaussian forecast probability density function (PDF) from the ensemble output. The mean of the normal predictive PDF is a bias-corrected weighted average of the ensemble members and its variance is a linear function of the raw ensemble variance. The coefficients for the mean and variance are estimated by minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) during a training period. CRPS is a scoring rule for distributional forecasts. In the paper of Gneiting et al. (Mon Weather Rev 133:1098-1118, 2005), Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method is used to minimize the CRPS. Since BFGS is a conventional optimization method with its own limitations, we suggest using the particle swarm optimization (PSO), a robust meta-heuristic method, to minimize the CRPS. The ensemble prediction system used in this study consists of nine different configurations of the weather research and forecasting model for 48-h forecasts of temperature during autumn and winter 2011 and 2012. The probabilistic forecasts were evaluated using several common verification scores including Brier score, attribute diagram and rank histogram. Results show that both BFGS and PSO find the optimal solution and show the same evaluation scores, but PSO can do this with a feasible random first guess and much less computational complexity.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo
2016-08-01
This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chyu, Wei J.; Rimlinger, Mark J.; Shih, Tom I.-P.
1993-01-01
A numerical study was performed to investigate 3D shock-wave/boundary-layer interactions on a flat plate with bleed through one or more circular holes that vent into a plenum. This study was focused on how bleed-hole geometry and pressure ratio across bleed holes affect the bleed rate and the physics of the flow in the vicinity of the holes. The aspects of the bleed-hole geometry investigated include angle of bleed hole and the number of bleed holes. The plenum/freestream pressure ratios investigated range from 0.3 to 1.7. This study is based on the ensemble-averaged, 'full compressible' Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations closed by the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic turbulence model. Solutions to the ensemble-averaged N-S equations were obtained by an implicit finite-volume method using the partially-split, two-factored algorithm of Steger on an overlapping Chimera grid.
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Optimized nested Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling: theory
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Coe, Joshua D; Shaw, M Sam; Sewell, Thomas D
2009-01-01
Metropolis Monte Carlo sampling of a reference potential is used to build a Markov chain in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble. At the endpoints of the chain, the energy is reevaluated at a different level of approximation (the 'full' energy) and a composite move encompassing all of the intervening steps is accepted on the basis of a modified Metropolis criterion. By manipulating the thermodynamic variables characterizing the reference system we maximize the average acceptance probability of composite moves, lengthening significantly the random walk made between consecutive evaluations of the full energy at a fixed acceptance probability. This provides maximally decorrelated samples ofmore » the full potential, thereby lowering the total number required to build ensemble averages of a given variance. The efficiency of the method is illustrated using model potentials appropriate to molecular fluids at high pressure. Implications for ab initio or density functional theory (DFT) treatment are discussed.« less
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Life under the Microscope: Single-Molecule Fluorescence Highlights the RNA World.
Ray, Sujay; Widom, Julia R; Walter, Nils G
2018-04-25
The emergence of single-molecule (SM) fluorescence techniques has opened up a vast new toolbox for exploring the molecular basis of life. The ability to monitor individual biomolecules in real time enables complex, dynamic folding pathways to be interrogated without the averaging effect of ensemble measurements. In parallel, modern biology has been revolutionized by our emerging understanding of the many functions of RNA. In this comprehensive review, we survey SM fluorescence approaches and discuss how the application of these tools to RNA and RNA-containing macromolecular complexes in vitro has yielded significant insights into the underlying biology. Topics covered include the three-dimensional folding landscapes of a plethora of isolated RNA molecules, their assembly and interactions in RNA-protein complexes, and the relation of these properties to their biological functions. In all of these examples, the use of SM fluorescence methods has revealed critical information beyond the reach of ensemble averages.
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Typical performance of approximation algorithms for NP-hard problems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takabe, Satoshi; Hukushima, Koji
2016-11-01
Typical performance of approximation algorithms is studied for randomized minimum vertex cover problems. A wide class of random graph ensembles characterized by an arbitrary degree distribution is discussed with the presentation of a theoretical framework. Herein, three approximation algorithms are examined: linear-programming relaxation, loopy-belief propagation, and the leaf-removal algorithm. The former two algorithms are analyzed using a statistical-mechanical technique, whereas the average-case analysis of the last one is conducted using the generating function method. These algorithms have a threshold in the typical performance with increasing average degree of the random graph, below which they find true optimal solutions with high probability. Our study reveals that there exist only three cases, determined by the order of the typical performance thresholds. In addition, we provide some conditions for classification of the graph ensembles and demonstrate explicitly some examples for the difference in thresholds.
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Tran, Hoang T.; Pappu, Rohit V.
2006-01-01
Our focus is on an appropriate theoretical framework for describing highly denatured proteins. In high concentrations of denaturants, proteins behave like polymers in a good solvent and ensembles for denatured proteins can be modeled by ignoring all interactions except excluded volume (EV) effects. To assay conformational preferences of highly denatured proteins, we quantify a variety of properties for EV-limit ensembles of 23 two-state proteins. We find that modeled denatured proteins can be best described as follows. Average shapes are consistent with prolate ellipsoids. Ensembles are characterized by large correlated fluctuations. Sequence-specific conformational preferences are restricted to local length scales that span five to nine residues. Beyond local length scales, chain properties follow well-defined power laws that are expected for generic polymers in the EV limit. The average available volume is filled inefficiently, and cavities of all sizes are found within the interiors of denatured proteins. All properties characterized from simulated ensembles match predictions from rigorous field theories. We use our results to resolve between conflicting proposals for structure in ensembles for highly denatured states. PMID:16766618
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Using Bayes Model Averaging for Wind Power Forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Preede Revheim, Pål; Beyer, Hans Georg
2014-05-01
For operational purposes predictions of the forecasts of the lumped output of groups of wind farms spread over larger geographic areas will often be of interest. A naive approach is to make forecasts for each individual site and sum them up to get the group forecast. It is however well documented that a better choice is to use a model that also takes advantage of spatial smoothing effects. It might however be the case that some sites tends to more accurately reflect the total output of the region, either in general or for certain wind directions. It will then be of interest giving these a greater influence over the group forecast. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical post-processing method for producing probabilistic forecasts from ensembles. Raftery et al. [1] show how BMA can be used for statistical post processing of forecast ensembles, producing PDFs of future weather quantities. The BMA predictive PDF of a future weather quantity is a weighted average of the ensemble members' PDFs, where the weights can be interpreted as posterior probabilities and reflect the ensemble members' contribution to overall forecasting skill over a training period. In Revheim and Beyer [2] the BMA procedure used in Sloughter, Gneiting and Raftery [3] were found to produce fairly accurate PDFs for the future mean wind speed of a group of sites from the single sites wind speeds. However, when the procedure was attempted applied to wind power it resulted in either problems with the estimation of the parameters (mainly caused by longer consecutive periods of no power production) or severe underestimation (mainly caused by problems with reflecting the power curve). In this paper the problems that arose when applying BMA to wind power forecasting is met through two strategies. First, the BMA procedure is run with a combination of single site wind speeds and single site wind power production as input. This solves the problem with longer consecutive periods where the input data does not contain information, but it has the disadvantage of nearly doubling the number of model parameters to be estimated. Second, the BMA procedure is run with group mean wind power as the response variable instead of group mean wind speed. This also solves the problem with longer consecutive periods without information in the input data, but it leaves the power curve to also be estimated from the data. [1] Raftery, A. E., et al. (2005). Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1155-1174. [2]Revheim, P. P. and H. G. Beyer (2013). Using Bayesian Model Averaging for wind farm group forecasts. EWEA Wind Power Forecasting Technology Workshop,Rotterdam, 4-5 December 2013. [3]Sloughter, J. M., T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery (2010). Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 105, No. 489, 25-35
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Inhomogeneous diffusion and ergodicity breaking induced by global memory effects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Budini, Adrián A.
2016-11-01
We introduce a class of discrete random-walk model driven by global memory effects. At any time, the right-left transitions depend on the whole previous history of the walker, being defined by an urnlike memory mechanism. The characteristic function is calculated in an exact way, which allows us to demonstrate that the ensemble of realizations is ballistic. Asymptotically, each realization is equivalent to that of a biased Markovian diffusion process with transition rates that strongly differs from one trajectory to another. Using this "inhomogeneous diffusion" feature, the ergodic properties of the dynamics are analytically studied through the time-averaged moments. Even in the long-time regime, they remain random objects. While their average over realizations recovers the corresponding ensemble averages, departure between time and ensemble averages is explicitly shown through their probability densities. For the density of the second time-averaged moment, an ergodic limit and the limit of infinite lag times do not commutate. All these effects are induced by the memory effects. A generalized Einstein fluctuation-dissipation relation is also obtained for the time-averaged moments.
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Statistical hadronization and microcanonical ensemble
Becattini, F.; Ferroni, L.
2004-01-01
We present a Monte Carlo calculation of the microcanonical ensemble of the of the ideal hadron-resonance gas including all known states up to a mass of 1. 8 GeV, taking into account quantum statistics. The computing method is a development of a previous one based on a Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm, with a the grand-canonical limit of the multi-species multiplicity distribution as proposal matrix. The microcanonical average multiplicities of the various hadron species are found to converge to the canonical ones for moderately low values of the total energy. This algorithm opens the way for event generators based for themore » statistical hadronization model.« less
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Constructing optimal ensemble projections for predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anisimov, Oleg; Kokorev, Vasily
2013-04-01
Large uncertainties in climate impact modelling are associated with the forcing climate data. This study is targeted at the evaluation of the quality of GCM-based climatic projections in the specific context of predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this task, we used the output from 36 CMIP5 GCMs from the IPCC AR-5 data base for the control period 1975-2005 and calculated several climatic characteristics and indexes that are most often used in the impact models, i.e. the summer warmth index, duration of the vegetation growth period, precipitation sums, dryness index, thawing degree-day sums, and the annual temperature amplitude. We used data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighbouring countries to analyze the spatial patterns of modern climatic change and to delineate 17 large regions with coherent temperature changes in the past few decades. GSM results and observational data were averaged over the coherent regions and compared with each other. Ultimately, we evaluated the skills of individual models, ranked them in the context of regional impact modelling and identified top-end GCMs that "better than average" reproduce modern regional changes of the selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes. Selected top-end GCMs were used to compose several ensembles, each combining results from the different number of models. Ensembles were ranked using the same algorithm and outliers eliminated. We then used data from top-end ensembles for the 2000-2100 period to construct the climatic projections that are likely to be "better than average" in predicting climatic parameters that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia. The ultimate conclusions of our study are the following. • High-end GCMs that demonstrate excellent skills in conventional atmospheric model intercomparison experiments are not necessarily the best in replicating climatic characteristics that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia, and independent model evaluation on regional level is necessary to identify "better than average" GCMs. • Each of the ensembles combining results from several "better than average" models replicate selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes better than any single GCM. The ensemble skills are parameter-specific and depend on models it consists of. The best results are not necessarily those based on the ensemble comprised by all "better than average" models. • Comprehensive evaluation of climatic scenarios using specific criteria narrows the range of uncertainties in environmental projections.
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Improving consensus structure by eliminating averaging artifacts
KC, Dukka B
2009-01-01
Background Common structural biology methods (i.e., NMR and molecular dynamics) often produce ensembles of molecular structures. Consequently, averaging of 3D coordinates of molecular structures (proteins and RNA) is a frequent approach to obtain a consensus structure that is representative of the ensemble. However, when the structures are averaged, artifacts can result in unrealistic local geometries, including unphysical bond lengths and angles. Results Herein, we describe a method to derive representative structures while limiting the number of artifacts. Our approach is based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique that drives a starting structure (an extended or a 'close-by' structure) towards the 'averaged structure' using a harmonic pseudo energy function. To assess the performance of the algorithm, we applied our approach to Cα models of 1364 proteins generated by the TASSER structure prediction algorithm. The average RMSD of the refined model from the native structure for the set becomes worse by a mere 0.08 Å compared to the average RMSD of the averaged structures from the native structure (3.28 Å for refined structures and 3.36 A for the averaged structures). However, the percentage of atoms involved in clashes is greatly reduced (from 63% to 1%); in fact, the majority of the refined proteins had zero clashes. Moreover, a small number (38) of refined structures resulted in lower RMSD to the native protein versus the averaged structure. Finally, compared to PULCHRA [1], our approach produces representative structure of similar RMSD quality, but with much fewer clashes. Conclusion The benchmarking results demonstrate that our approach for removing averaging artifacts can be very beneficial for the structural biology community. Furthermore, the same approach can be applied to almost any problem where averaging of 3D coordinates is performed. Namely, structure averaging is also commonly performed in RNA secondary prediction [2], which could also benefit from our approach. PMID:19267905
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Method for exploratory cluster analysis and visualisation of single-trial ERP ensembles.
Williams, N J; Nasuto, S J; Saddy, J D
2015-07-30
The validity of ensemble averaging on event-related potential (ERP) data has been questioned, due to its assumption that the ERP is identical across trials. Thus, there is a need for preliminary testing for cluster structure in the data. We propose a complete pipeline for the cluster analysis of ERP data. To increase the signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio of the raw single-trials, we used a denoising method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Next, we used a bootstrap-based method to determine the number of clusters, through a measure called the Stability Index (SI). We then used a clustering algorithm based on a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to define initial cluster centroids for subsequent k-means clustering. Finally, we visualised the clustering results through a scheme based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA). After validating the pipeline on simulated data, we tested it on data from two experiments - a P300 speller paradigm on a single subject and a language processing study on 25 subjects. Results revealed evidence for the existence of 6 clusters in one experimental condition from the language processing study. Further, a two-way chi-square test revealed an influence of subject on cluster membership. Our analysis operates on denoised single-trials, the number of clusters are determined in a principled manner and the results are presented through an intuitive visualisation. Given the cluster structure in some experimental conditions, we suggest application of cluster analysis as a preliminary step before ensemble averaging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Nogal, Bartek; Bowman, Charles A; Ward, Andrew B
2017-11-24
Several biophysical approaches are available to study protein-protein interactions. Most approaches are conducted in bulk solution, and are therefore limited to an average measurement of the ensemble of molecular interactions. Here, we show how single-particle EM can enrich our understanding of protein-protein interactions at the single-molecule level and potentially capture states that are unobservable with ensemble methods because they are below the limit of detection or not conducted on an appropriate time scale. Using the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) and its interaction with receptor CD4-binding site neutralizing antibodies as a model system, we both corroborate ensemble kinetics-derived parameters and demonstrate how time-course EM can further dissect stoichiometric states of complexes that are not readily observable with other methods. Visualization of the kinetics and stoichiometry of Env-antibody complexes demonstrated the applicability of our approach to qualitatively and semi-quantitatively differentiate two highly similar neutralizing antibodies. Furthermore, implementation of machine-learning techniques for sorting class averages of these complexes into discrete subclasses of particles helped reduce human bias. Our data provide proof of concept that single-particle EM can be used to generate a "visual" kinetic profile that should be amenable to studying many other protein-protein interactions, is relatively simple and complementary to well-established biophysical approaches. Moreover, our method provides critical insights into broadly neutralizing antibody recognition of Env, which may inform vaccine immunogen design and immunotherapeutic development. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jahshan, S. N.; Singleterry, R. C.
2001-01-01
The effect of random fuel redistribution on the eigenvalue of a one-speed reactor is investigated. An ensemble of such reactors that are identical to a homogeneous reference critical reactor except for the fissile isotope density distribution is constructed such that it meets a set of well-posed redistribution requirements. The average eigenvalue,
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Quantum canonical ensemble: A projection operator approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Magnus, Wim; Lemmens, Lucien; Brosens, Fons
2017-09-01
Knowing the exact number of particles N, and taking this knowledge into account, the quantum canonical ensemble imposes a constraint on the occupation number operators. The constraint particularly hampers the systematic calculation of the partition function and any relevant thermodynamic expectation value for arbitrary but fixed N. On the other hand, fixing only the average number of particles, one may remove the above constraint and simply factorize the traces in Fock space into traces over single-particle states. As is well known, that would be the strategy of the grand-canonical ensemble which, however, comes with an additional Lagrange multiplier to impose the average number of particles. The appearance of this multiplier can be avoided by invoking a projection operator that enables a constraint-free computation of the partition function and its derived quantities in the canonical ensemble, at the price of an angular or contour integration. Introduced in the recent past to handle various issues related to particle-number projected statistics, the projection operator approach proves beneficial to a wide variety of problems in condensed matter physics for which the canonical ensemble offers a natural and appropriate environment. In this light, we present a systematic treatment of the canonical ensemble that embeds the projection operator into the formalism of second quantization while explicitly fixing N, the very number of particles rather than the average. Being applicable to both bosonic and fermionic systems in arbitrary dimensions, transparent integral representations are provided for the partition function ZN and the Helmholtz free energy FN as well as for two- and four-point correlation functions. The chemical potential is not a Lagrange multiplier regulating the average particle number but can be extracted from FN+1 -FN, as illustrated for a two-dimensional fermion gas.
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Gienger, Jonas; Bär, Markus; Neukammer, Jörg
2018-01-10
A method is presented to infer simultaneously the wavelength-dependent real refractive index (RI) of the material of microspheres and their size distribution from extinction measurements of particle suspensions. To derive the averaged spectral optical extinction cross section of the microspheres from such ensemble measurements, we determined the particle concentration by flow cytometry to an accuracy of typically 2% and adjusted the particle concentration to ensure that perturbations due to multiple scattering are negligible. For analysis of the extinction spectra, we employ Mie theory, a series-expansion representation of the refractive index and nonlinear numerical optimization. In contrast to other approaches, our method offers the advantage to simultaneously determine size, size distribution, and spectral refractive index of ensembles of microparticles including uncertainty estimation.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yin, Dong-shan; Gao, Yu-ping; Zhao, Shu-hong
2017-07-01
Millisecond pulsars can generate another type of time scale that is totally independent of the atomic time scale, because the physical mechanisms of the pulsar time scale and the atomic time scale are quite different from each other. Usually the pulsar timing observations are not evenly sampled, and the internals between two data points range from several hours to more than half a month. Further more, these data sets are sparse. All this makes it difficult to generate an ensemble pulsar time scale. Hence, a new algorithm to calculate the ensemble pulsar time scale is proposed. Firstly, a cubic spline interpolation is used to densify the data set, and make the intervals between data points uniform. Then, the Vondrak filter is employed to smooth the data set, and get rid of the high-frequency noises, and finally the weighted average method is adopted to generate the ensemble pulsar time scale. The newly released NANOGRAV (North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves) 9-year data set is used to generate the ensemble pulsar time scale. This data set includes the 9-year observational data of 37 millisecond pulsars observed by the 100-meter Green Bank telescope and the 305-meter Arecibo telescope. It is found that the algorithm used in this paper can reduce effectively the influence caused by the noises in pulsar timing residuals, and improve the long-term stability of the ensemble pulsar time scale. Results indicate that the long-term (> 1 yr) stability of the ensemble pulsar time scale is better than 3.4 × 10-15.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X
2005-04-11
This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniquesmore » affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.« less
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Singla, Neeru; Srivastava, Vishal; Mehta, Dalip Singh
2018-05-01
Malaria is a life-threatening infectious blood disease affecting humans and other animals caused by parasitic protozoans belonging to the Plasmodium type especially in developing countries. The gold standard method for the detection of malaria is through the microscopic method of chemically treated blood smears. We developed an automated optical spatial coherence tomographic system using a machine learning approach for a fast identification of malaria cells. In this study, 28 samples (15 healthy, 13 malaria infected stages of red blood cells) were imaged by the developed system and 13 features were extracted. We designed a multilevel ensemble-based classifier for the quantitative prediction of different stages of the malaria cells. The proposed classifier was used by repeating k-fold cross validation dataset and achieve a high-average accuracy of 97.9% for identifying malaria infected late trophozoite stage of cells. Overall, our proposed system and multilevel ensemble model has a substantial quantifiable potential to detect the different stages of malaria infection without staining or expert. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
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Decimated Input Ensembles for Improved Generalization
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tumer, Kagan; Oza, Nikunj C.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)
1999-01-01
Recently, many researchers have demonstrated that using classifier ensembles (e.g., averaging the outputs of multiple classifiers before reaching a classification decision) leads to improved performance for many difficult generalization problems. However, in many domains there are serious impediments to such "turnkey" classification accuracy improvements. Most notable among these is the deleterious effect of highly correlated classifiers on the ensemble performance. One particular solution to this problem is generating "new" training sets by sampling the original one. However, with finite number of patterns, this causes a reduction in the training patterns each classifier sees, often resulting in considerably worsened generalization performance (particularly for high dimensional data domains) for each individual classifier. Generally, this drop in the accuracy of the individual classifier performance more than offsets any potential gains due to combining, unless diversity among classifiers is actively promoted. In this work, we introduce a method that: (1) reduces the correlation among the classifiers; (2) reduces the dimensionality of the data, thus lessening the impact of the 'curse of dimensionality'; and (3) improves the classification performance of the ensemble.
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En route noise levels from propfan test assessment airplane
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Garber, Donald P.; Willshire, William L., Jr.
1994-01-01
The en route noise test was designed to characterize propagation of propfan noise from cruise altitudes to the ground. In-flight measurements of propfan source levels and directional patterns were made by a chase plane flying in formation with the propfan test assessment (PTA) airplane. Ground noise measurements were taken during repeated flights over a distributed microphone array. The microphone array on the ground was used to provide ensemble-averaged estimates of mean flyover noise levels, establish confidence limits for those means, and measure propagation-induced noise variability. Even for identical nominal cruise conditions, peak sound levels for individual overflights varied substantially about the average, particularly when overflights were performed on different days. Large day-to-day variations in peak level measurements appeared to be caused by large day-to-day differences in propagation conditions and tended to obscure small variations arising from operating conditions. A parametric evaluation of the sensitivity of this prediction method to weather measurement and source level uncertainties was also performed. In general, predictions showed good agreement with measurements. However, the method was unable to predict short-term variability of ensemble-averaged data within individual overflights. Although variations in absorption appear to be the dominant factor in variations of peak sound levels recorded on the ground, accurate predictions of those levels require that a complete description of operational conditions be taken into account. The comprehensive and integrated methods presented in this paper have adequately predicted ground-measured sound levels. On average, peak sound levels were predicted within 3 dB for each of the three different cruise conditions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peishu, Zong; Jianping, Tang; Shuyu, Wang; Lingyun, Xie; Jianwei, Yu; Yunqian, Zhu; Xiaorui, Niu; Chao, Li
2017-08-01
The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Drótos, Gábor; Bódai, Tamás; Tél, Tamás
2016-08-01
In nonautonomous dynamical systems, like in climate dynamics, an ensemble of trajectories initiated in the remote past defines a unique probability distribution, the natural measure of a snapshot attractor, for any instant of time, but this distribution typically changes in time. In cases with an aperiodic driving, temporal averages taken along a single trajectory would differ from the corresponding ensemble averages even in the infinite-time limit: ergodicity does not hold. It is worth considering this difference, which we call the nonergodic mismatch, by taking time windows of finite length for temporal averaging. We point out that the probability distribution of the nonergodic mismatch is qualitatively different in ergodic and nonergodic cases: its average is zero and typically nonzero, respectively. A main conclusion is that the difference of the average from zero, which we call the bias, is a useful measure of nonergodicity, for any window length. In contrast, the standard deviation of the nonergodic mismatch, which characterizes the spread between different realizations, exhibits a power-law decrease with increasing window length in both ergodic and nonergodic cases, and this implies that temporal and ensemble averages differ in dynamical systems with finite window lengths. It is the average modulus of the nonergodic mismatch, which we call the ergodicity deficit, that represents the expected deviation from fulfilling the equality of temporal and ensemble averages. As an important finding, we demonstrate that the ergodicity deficit cannot be reduced arbitrarily in nonergodic systems. We illustrate via a conceptual climate model that the nonergodic framework may be useful in Earth system dynamics, within which we propose the measure of nonergodicity, i.e., the bias, as an order-parameter-like quantifier of climate change.
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Ensemble representations: effects of set size and item heterogeneity on average size perception.
Marchant, Alexander P; Simons, Daniel J; de Fockert, Jan W
2013-02-01
Observers can accurately perceive and evaluate the statistical properties of a set of objects, forming what is now known as an ensemble representation. The accuracy and speed with which people can judge the mean size of a set of objects have led to the proposal that ensemble representations of average size can be computed in parallel when attention is distributed across the display. Consistent with this idea, judgments of mean size show little or no decrement in accuracy when the number of objects in the set increases. However, the lack of a set size effect might result from the regularity of the item sizes used in previous studies. Here, we replicate these previous findings, but show that judgments of mean set size become less accurate when set size increases and the heterogeneity of the item sizes increases. This pattern can be explained by assuming that average size judgments are computed using a limited capacity sampling strategy, and it does not necessitate an ensemble representation computed in parallel across all items in a display. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Ensemble Feature Learning of Genomic Data Using Support Vector Machine
Anaissi, Ali; Goyal, Madhu; Catchpoole, Daniel R.; Braytee, Ali; Kennedy, Paul J.
2016-01-01
The identification of a subset of genes having the ability to capture the necessary information to distinguish classes of patients is crucial in bioinformatics applications. Ensemble and bagging methods have been shown to work effectively in the process of gene selection and classification. Testament to that is random forest which combines random decision trees with bagging to improve overall feature selection and classification accuracy. Surprisingly, the adoption of these methods in support vector machines has only recently received attention but mostly on classification not gene selection. This paper introduces an ensemble SVM-Recursive Feature Elimination (ESVM-RFE) for gene selection that follows the concepts of ensemble and bagging used in random forest but adopts the backward elimination strategy which is the rationale of RFE algorithm. The rationale behind this is, building ensemble SVM models using randomly drawn bootstrap samples from the training set, will produce different feature rankings which will be subsequently aggregated as one feature ranking. As a result, the decision for elimination of features is based upon the ranking of multiple SVM models instead of choosing one particular model. Moreover, this approach will address the problem of imbalanced datasets by constructing a nearly balanced bootstrap sample. Our experiments show that ESVM-RFE for gene selection substantially increased the classification performance on five microarray datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods. Experiments on the childhood leukaemia dataset show that an average 9% better accuracy is achieved by ESVM-RFE over SVM-RFE, and 5% over random forest based approach. The selected genes by the ESVM-RFE algorithm were further explored with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) which reveals significant clusters with the selected data. PMID:27304923
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Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano; Skottman, Heli; Juuti-Uusitalo, Kati; Hyttinen, Jari
2016-01-01
Aims A fast, non-invasive and observer-independent method to analyze the homogeneity and maturity of human pluripotent stem cell (hPSC) derived retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells is warranted to assess the suitability of hPSC-RPE cells for implantation or in vitro use. The aim of this work was to develop and validate methods to create ensembles of state-of-the-art texture descriptors and to provide a robust classification tool to separate three different maturation stages of RPE cells by using phase contrast microscopy images. The same methods were also validated on a wide variety of biological image classification problems, such as histological or virus image classification. Methods For image classification we used different texture descriptors, descriptor ensembles and preprocessing techniques. Also, three new methods were tested. The first approach was an ensemble of preprocessing methods, to create an additional set of images. The second was the region-based approach, where saliency detection and wavelet decomposition divide each image in two different regions, from which features were extracted through different descriptors. The third method was an ensemble of Binarized Statistical Image Features, based on different sizes and thresholds. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) was trained for each descriptor histogram and the set of SVMs combined by sum rule. The accuracy of the computer vision tool was verified in classifying the hPSC-RPE cell maturation level. Dataset and Results The RPE dataset contains 1862 subwindows from 195 phase contrast images. The final descriptor ensemble outperformed the most recent stand-alone texture descriptors, obtaining, for the RPE dataset, an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 86.49% with the 10-fold cross validation and 91.98% with the leave-one-image-out protocol. The generality of the three proposed approaches was ascertained with 10 more biological image datasets, obtaining an average AUC greater than 97%. Conclusions Here we showed that the developed ensembles of texture descriptors are able to classify the RPE cell maturation stage. Moreover, we proved that preprocessing and region-based decomposition improves many descriptors’ accuracy in biological dataset classification. Finally, we built the first public dataset of stem cell-derived RPE cells, which is publicly available to the scientific community for classification studies. The proposed tool is available at https://www.dei.unipd.it/node/2357 and the RPE dataset at http://www.biomeditech.fi/data/RPE_dataset/. Both are available at https://figshare.com/s/d6fb591f1beb4f8efa6f. PMID:26895509
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Characteristics of ion flow in the quiet state of the inner plasma sheet
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Angelopoulos, V.; Kennel, C. F.; Coroniti, F. V.; Pellat, R.; Spence, H. E.; Kivelson, M. G.; Walker, R. J.; Baumjohann, W.; Feldman, W. C.; Gosling, J. T.
1993-01-01
We use AMPTE/IRM and ISEE 2 data to study the properties of the high beta plasma sheet, the inner plasma sheet (IPS). Bursty bulk flows (BBFs) are excised from the two databases, and the average flow pattern in the non-BBF (quiet) IPS is constructed. At local midnight this ensemble-average flow is predominantly duskward; closer to the flanks it is mostly earthward. The flow pattern agrees qualitatively with calculations based on the Tsyganenko (1987) model (T87), where the earthward flow is due to the ensemble-average cross tail electric field and the duskward flow is the diamagnetic drift due to an inward pressure gradient. The IPS is on the average in pressure equilibrium with the lobes. Because of its large variance the average flow does not represent the instantaneous flow field. Case studies also show that the non-BBF flow is highly irregular and inherently unsteady, a reason why earthward convection can avoid a pressure balance inconsistency with the lobes. The ensemble distribution of velocities is a fundamental observable of the quiet plasma sheet flow field.
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Application of Generalized Feynman-Hellmann Theorem in Quantization of LC Circuit in Thermo Bath
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fan, Hong-Yi; Tang, Xu-Bing
For the quantized LC electric circuit, when taking the Joule thermal effect into account, we think that physical observables should be evaluated in the context of ensemble average. We then use the generalized Feynman-Hellmann theorem for ensemble average to calculate them, which seems convenient. Fluctuation of observables in various LC electric circuits in the presence of thermo bath growing with temperature is exhibited.
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Calculating ensemble averaged descriptions of protein rigidity without sampling.
González, Luis C; Wang, Hui; Livesay, Dennis R; Jacobs, Donald J
2012-01-01
Previous works have demonstrated that protein rigidity is related to thermodynamic stability, especially under conditions that favor formation of native structure. Mechanical network rigidity properties of a single conformation are efficiently calculated using the integer body-bar Pebble Game (PG) algorithm. However, thermodynamic properties require averaging over many samples from the ensemble of accessible conformations to accurately account for fluctuations in network topology. We have developed a mean field Virtual Pebble Game (VPG) that represents the ensemble of networks by a single effective network. That is, all possible number of distance constraints (or bars) that can form between a pair of rigid bodies is replaced by the average number. The resulting effective network is viewed as having weighted edges, where the weight of an edge quantifies its capacity to absorb degrees of freedom. The VPG is interpreted as a flow problem on this effective network, which eliminates the need to sample. Across a nonredundant dataset of 272 protein structures, we apply the VPG to proteins for the first time. Our results show numerically and visually that the rigidity characterizations of the VPG accurately reflect the ensemble averaged [Formula: see text] properties. This result positions the VPG as an efficient alternative to understand the mechanical role that chemical interactions play in maintaining protein stability.
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Klement, William; Wilk, Szymon; Michalowski, Wojtek; Farion, Ken J; Osmond, Martin H; Verter, Vedat
2012-03-01
Using an automatic data-driven approach, this paper develops a prediction model that achieves more balanced performance (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) than the Canadian Assessment of Tomography for Childhood Head Injury (CATCH) rule, when predicting the need for computed tomography (CT) imaging of children after a minor head injury. CT is widely considered an effective tool for evaluating patients with minor head trauma who have potentially suffered serious intracranial injury. However, its use poses possible harmful effects, particularly for children, due to exposure to radiation. Safety concerns, along with issues of cost and practice variability, have led to calls for the development of effective methods to decide when CT imaging is needed. Clinical decision rules represent such methods and are normally derived from the analysis of large prospectively collected patient data sets. The CATCH rule was created by a group of Canadian pediatric emergency physicians to support the decision of referring children with minor head injury to CT imaging. The goal of the CATCH rule was to maximize the sensitivity of predictions of potential intracranial lesion while keeping specificity at a reasonable level. After extensive analysis of the CATCH data set, characterized by severe class imbalance, and after a thorough evaluation of several data mining methods, we derived an ensemble of multiple Naive Bayes classifiers as the prediction model for CT imaging decisions. In the first phase of the experiment we compared the proposed ensemble model to other ensemble models employing rule-, tree- and instance-based member classifiers. Our prediction model demonstrated the best performance in terms of AUC, G-mean and sensitivity measures. In the second phase, using a bootstrapping experiment similar to that reported by the CATCH investigators, we showed that the proposed ensemble model achieved a more balanced predictive performance than the CATCH rule with an average sensitivity of 82.8% and an average specificity of 74.4% (vs. 98.1% and 50.0% for the CATCH rule respectively). Automatically derived prediction models cannot replace a physician's acumen. However, they help establish reference performance indicators for the purpose of developing clinical decision rules so the trade-off between prediction sensitivity and specificity is better understood. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Climate Model Ensemble Methodology: Rationale and Challenges
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vezer, M. A.; Myrvold, W.
2012-12-01
A tractable model of the Earth's atmosphere, or, indeed, any large, complex system, is inevitably unrealistic in a variety of ways. This will have an effect on the model's output. Nonetheless, we want to be able to rely on certain features of the model's output in studies aiming to detect, attribute, and project climate change. For this, we need assurance that these features reflect the target system, and are not artifacts of the unrealistic assumptions that go into the model. One technique for overcoming these limitations is to study ensembles of models which employ different simplifying assumptions and different methods of modelling. One then either takes as reliable certain outputs on which models in the ensemble agree, or takes the average of these outputs as the best estimate. Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) modellers have aimed to improve ensemble analysis by developing techniques to account for dependencies among models, and to ascribe unequal weights to models according to their performance. The goal of this paper is to present as clearly and cogently as possible the rationale for climate model ensemble methodology, the motivation of modellers to account for model dependencies, and their efforts to ascribe unequal weights to models. The method of our analysis is as follows. We will consider a simpler, well-understood case of taking the mean of a number of measurements of some quantity. Contrary to what is sometimes said, it is not a requirement of this practice that the errors of the component measurements be independent; one must, however, compensate for any lack of independence. We will also extend the usual accounts to include cases of unknown systematic error. We draw parallels between this simpler illustration and the more complex example of climate model ensembles, detailing how ensembles can provide more useful information than any of their constituent models. This account emphasizes the epistemic importance of considering degrees of model dependence, and the practice of ascribing unequal weights to models of unequal skill.
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Toward canonical ensemble distribution from self-guided Langevin dynamics simulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Xiongwu; Brooks, Bernard R.
2011-04-01
This work derives a quantitative description of the conformational distribution in self-guided Langevin dynamics (SGLD) simulations. SGLD simulations employ guiding forces calculated from local average momentums to enhance low-frequency motion. This enhancement in low-frequency motion dramatically accelerates conformational search efficiency, but also induces certain perturbations in conformational distribution. Through the local averaging, we separate properties of molecular systems into low-frequency and high-frequency portions. The guiding force effect on the conformational distribution is quantitatively described using these low-frequency and high-frequency properties. This quantitative relation provides a way to convert between a canonical ensemble and a self-guided ensemble. Using example systems, we demonstrated how to utilize the relation to obtain canonical ensemble properties and conformational distributions from SGLD simulations. This development makes SGLD not only an efficient approach for conformational searching, but also an accurate means for conformational sampling.
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Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, H.
2017-12-01
Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic ensemble mean and may provide reliable future projections.
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Extracting Drug-Drug Interactions with Word and Character-Level Recurrent Neural Networks
Kavuluru, Ramakanth; Rios, Anthony; Tran, Tung
2017-01-01
Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are known to be responsible for nearly a third of all adverse drug reactions. Hence several current efforts focus on extracting signal from EMRs to prioritize DDIs that need further exploration. To this end, being able to extract explicit mentions of DDIs in free text narratives is an important task. In this paper, we explore recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures to detect and classify DDIs from unstructured text using the DDIExtraction dataset from the SemEval 2013 (task 9) shared task. Our methods are in line with those used in other recent deep learning efforts for relation extraction including DDI extraction. However, to our knowledge, we are the first to investigate the potential of character-level RNNs (Char-RNNs) for DDI extraction (and relation extraction in general). Furthermore, we explore a simple but effective model bootstrapping method to (a). build model averaging ensembles, (b). derive confidence intervals around mean micro-F scores (MMF), and (c). assess the average behavior of our methods. Without any rule based filtering of negative examples, a popular heuristic used by most earlier efforts, we achieve an MMF of 69.13. By adding simple replicable heuristics to filter negative instances we are able to achieve an MMF of 70.38. Furthermore, our best ensembles produce micro F-scores of 70.81 (without filtering) and 72.13 (with filtering), which are superior to metrics reported in published results. Although Char-RNNs turnout to be inferior to regular word based RNN models in overall comparisons, we find that ensembling models from both architectures results in nontrivial gains over simply using either alone, indicating that they complement each other. PMID:29034375
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On the v-representability of ensemble densities of electron systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gonis, A.; Däne, M.
2018-05-01
Analogously to the case at zero temperature, where the density of the ground state of an interacting many-particle system determines uniquely (within an arbitrary additive constant) the external potential acting on the system, the thermal average of the density over an ensemble defined by the Boltzmann distribution at the minimum of the thermodynamic potential, or the free energy, determines the external potential uniquely (and not just modulo a constant) acting on a system described by this thermodynamic potential or free energy. The paper describes a formal procedure that generates the domain of a constrained search over general ensembles (at zero or elevated temperatures) that lead to a given density, including as a special case a density thermally averaged at a given temperature, and in the case of a v-representable density determines the external potential leading to the ensemble density. As an immediate consequence of the general formalism, the concept of v-representability is extended beyond the hitherto discussed case of ground state densities to encompass excited states as well. Specific application to thermally averaged densities solves the v-representability problem in connection with the Mermin functional in a manner analogous to that in which this problem was recently settled with respect to the Hohenberg and Kohn functional. The main formalism is illustrated with numerical results for ensembles of one-dimensional, non-interacting systems of particles under a harmonic potential.
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On the v-representability of ensemble densities of electron systems
Gonis, A.; Dane, M.
2017-12-30
Analogously to the case at zero temperature, where the density of the ground state of an interacting many-particle system determines uniquely (within an arbitrary additive constant) the external potential acting on the system, the thermal average of the density over an ensemble defined by the Boltzmann distribution at the minimum of the thermodynamic potential, or the free energy, determines the external potential uniquely (and not just modulo a constant) acting on a system described by this thermodynamic potential or free energy. The study describes a formal procedure that generates the domain of a constrained search over general ensembles (at zeromore » or elevated temperatures) that lead to a given density, including as a special case a density thermally averaged at a given temperature, and in the case of a v-representable density determines the external potential leading to the ensemble density. As an immediate consequence of the general formalism, the concept of v-representability is extended beyond the hitherto discussed case of ground state densities to encompass excited states as well. Specific application to thermally averaged densities solves the v-representability problem in connection with the Mermin functional in a manner analogous to that in which this problem was recently settled with respect to the Hohenberg and Kohn functional. Finally, the main formalism is illustrated with numerical results for ensembles of one-dimensional, non-interacting systems of particles under a harmonic potential.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Soltanzadeh, I.; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G. A.
2011-07-01
Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.
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Langevin equation with fluctuating diffusivity: A two-state model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miyaguchi, Tomoshige; Akimoto, Takuma; Yamamoto, Eiji
2016-07-01
Recently, anomalous subdiffusion, aging, and scatter of the diffusion coefficient have been reported in many single-particle-tracking experiments, though the origins of these behaviors are still elusive. Here, as a model to describe such phenomena, we investigate a Langevin equation with diffusivity fluctuating between a fast and a slow state. Namely, the diffusivity follows a dichotomous stochastic process. We assume that the sojourn time distributions of these two states are given by power laws. It is shown that, for a nonequilibrium ensemble, the ensemble-averaged mean-square displacement (MSD) shows transient subdiffusion. In contrast, the time-averaged MSD shows normal diffusion, but an effective diffusion coefficient transiently shows aging behavior. The propagator is non-Gaussian for short time and converges to a Gaussian distribution in a long-time limit; this convergence to Gaussian is extremely slow for some parameter values. For equilibrium ensembles, both ensemble-averaged and time-averaged MSDs show only normal diffusion and thus we cannot detect any traces of the fluctuating diffusivity with these MSDs. Therefore, as an alternative approach to characterizing the fluctuating diffusivity, the relative standard deviation (RSD) of the time-averaged MSD is utilized and it is shown that the RSD exhibits slow relaxation as a signature of the long-time correlation in the fluctuating diffusivity. Furthermore, it is shown that the RSD is related to a non-Gaussian parameter of the propagator. To obtain these theoretical results, we develop a two-state renewal theory as an analytical tool.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fyodorov, Yan V.
2018-06-01
We suggest a method of studying the joint probability density (JPD) of an eigenvalue and the associated `non-orthogonality overlap factor' (also known as the `eigenvalue condition number') of the left and right eigenvectors for non-selfadjoint Gaussian random matrices of size {N× N} . First we derive the general finite N expression for the JPD of a real eigenvalue {λ} and the associated non-orthogonality factor in the real Ginibre ensemble, and then analyze its `bulk' and `edge' scaling limits. The ensuing distribution is maximally heavy-tailed, so that all integer moments beyond normalization are divergent. A similar calculation for a complex eigenvalue z and the associated non-orthogonality factor in the complex Ginibre ensemble is presented as well and yields a distribution with the finite first moment. Its `bulk' scaling limit yields a distribution whose first moment reproduces the well-known result of Chalker and Mehlig (Phys Rev Lett 81(16):3367-3370, 1998), and we provide the `edge' scaling distribution for this case as well. Our method involves evaluating the ensemble average of products and ratios of integer and half-integer powers of characteristic polynomials for Ginibre matrices, which we perform in the framework of a supersymmetry approach. Our paper complements recent studies by Bourgade and Dubach (The distribution of overlaps between eigenvectors of Ginibre matrices, 2018. arXiv:1801.01219).
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Yongye, Austin B.; Bender, Andreas
2010-01-01
Representing the 3D structures of ligands in virtual screenings via multi-conformer ensembles can be computationally intensive, especially for compounds with a large number of rotatable bonds. Thus, reducing the size of multi-conformer databases and the number of query conformers, while simultaneously reproducing the bioactive conformer with good accuracy, is of crucial interest. While clustering and RMSD filtering methods are employed in existing conformer generators, the novelty of this work is the inclusion of a clustering scheme (NMRCLUST) that does not require a user-defined cut-off value. This algorithm simultaneously optimizes the number and the average spread of the clusters. Here we describe and test four inter-dependent approaches for selecting computer-generated conformers, namely: OMEGA, NMRCLUST, RMS filtering and averaged-RMS filtering. The bioactive conformations of 65 selected ligands were extracted from the corresponding protein:ligand complexes from the Protein Data Bank, including eight ligands that adopted dissimilar bound conformations within different receptors. We show that NMRCLUST can be employed to further filter OMEGA-generated conformers while maintaining biological relevance of the ensemble. It was observed that NMRCLUST (containing on average 10 times fewer conformers per compound) performed nearly as well as OMEGA, and both outperformed RMS filtering and averaged-RMS filtering in terms of identifying the bioactive conformations with excellent and good matches (0.5 < RMSD < 1.0 Å). Furthermore, we propose thresholds for OMEGA root-mean square filtering depending on the number of rotors in a compound: 0.8, 1.0 and 1.4 for structures with low (1–4), medium (5–9) and high (10–15) numbers of rotatable bonds, respectively. The protocol employed is general and can be applied to reduce the number of conformers in multi-conformer compound collections and alleviate the complexity of downstream data processing in virtual screening experiments. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10822-010-9365-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:20499135
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Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.
2017-12-01
Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been largely corrected on short-term predictions. For the longer term, the addition of the multi-model member has been beneficial to the quality of the predictions, although it is too early to determine whether the gain is related to the addition of a member or if multi-model member has plus-value itself.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reusch, D. B.
2016-12-01
Any analysis that wants to use a GCM-based scenario of future climate benefits from knowing how much uncertainty the GCM's inherent variability adds to the development of climate change predictions. This is extra relevant in the polar regions due to the potential of global impacts (e.g., sea level rise) from local (ice sheet) climate changes such as more frequent/intense surface melting. High-resolution, regional-scale models using GCMs for boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios inherit a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We investigate these uncertainties for the Greenland ice sheet using the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Recent simulations are skill-tested against the ERA-Interim reanalysis and AWS observations with results informing future scenarios. We focus on key variables influencing surface melting through decadal climatologies, nonlinear analysis of variability with self-organizing maps (SOMs), regional-scale modeling (Polar WRF), and simple melt models. Relative to the ensemble average, spatially averaged climatological July temperature anomalies over a Greenland ice-sheet/ocean domain are mostly between +/- 0.2 °C. The spatial average hides larger local anomalies of up to +/- 2 °C. The ensemble average itself is 2 °C cooler than ERA-Interim. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. For CESMLE, the SOM patterns summarize the variability of multiple realizations of climate. Changes in pattern frequency by ensemble member show the influence of initial conditions. For example, basic statistical analysis of pattern frequency yields interquartile ranges of 2-4% for individual patterns across the ensemble. In climate terms, this tells us about climate state variability through the range of the ensemble, a potentially significant source of melt-prediction uncertainty. SOMs can also capture the different trajectories of climate due to intramodel variability over time. Polar WRF provides higher resolution regional modeling with improved, polar-centric model physics. Simple melt models allow us to characterize impacts of the upstream uncertainties on estimates of surface melting.
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2018-01-01
This paper measures the adhesion/cohesion force among asphalt molecules at nanoscale level using an Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and models the moisture damage by applying state-of-the-art Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques (e.g., artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR), and an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)). Various combinations of lime and chemicals as well as dry and wet environments are used to produce different asphalt samples. The parameters that were varied to generate different asphalt samples and measure the corresponding adhesion/cohesion forces are percentage of antistripping agents (e.g., Lime and Unichem), AFM tips K values, and AFM tip types. The CI methods are trained to model the adhesion/cohesion forces given the variation in values of the above parameters. To achieve enhanced performance, the statistical methods such as average, weighted average, and regression of the outputs generated by the CI techniques are used. The experimental results show that, of the three individual CI methods, ANN can model moisture damage to lime- and chemically modified asphalt better than the other two CI techniques for both wet and dry conditions. Moreover, the ensemble of CI along with statistical measurement provides better accuracy than any of the individual CI techniques. PMID:29849551
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ji, Q.; Xin, C.; Tang, S. X.; Huang, J. P.
2018-02-01
Crowd panic has incurred massive injuries or deaths throughout the world, and thus understanding it is particularly important. It is now a common knowledge that crowd panic induces "symmetry break" in which some exits are jammed while others are underutilized. Amazingly, here we show, by experiment, simulation and theory, that a class of symmetry patterns come to appear for ants and humans escaping from multiple-exit rooms while the symmetry break exists. Our symmetry pattern is described by the fact that the ratio between the ensemble-averaging numbers of ants or humans escaping from different exits is equal to the ratio between the widths of the exits. The mechanism lies in the effect of heterogeneous preferences of agents with limited information for achieving the Nash equilibrium. This work offers new insights into how to improve public safety because large public areas are always equipped with multiple exits, and it also brings an ensemble-averaging method for seeking symmetry associated with symmetry breaking.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shih, T. I. P.; Yang, S. L.; Schock, H. J.
1986-01-01
A numerical study was performed to investigate the unsteady, multidimensional flow inside the combustion chambers of an idealized, two-dimensional, rotary engine under motored conditions. The numerical study was based on the time-dependent, two-dimensional, density-weighted, ensemble-averaged conservation equations of mass, species, momentum, and total energy valid for two-component ideal gas mixtures. The ensemble-averaged conservation equations were closed by a K-epsilon model of turbulence. This K-epsilon model of turbulence was modified to account for some of the effects of compressibility, streamline curvature, low-Reynolds number, and preferential stress dissipation. Numerical solutions to the conservation equations were obtained by the highly efficient implicit-factored method of Beam and Warming. The grid system needed to obtain solutions were generated by an algebraic grid generation technique based on transfinite interpolation. Results of the numerical study are presented in graphical form illustrating the flow patterns during intake, compression, gaseous fuel injection, expansion, and exhaust.
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Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Hui; Zhou, Feng; Piao, Shilong; Huang, Mengtian; Chen, Anping; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Yue; Lian, Xu; Peng, Shushi; Zeng, Zhenzhong
2017-06-01
In the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, multimodel ensembles (arithmetic model averaging, AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.8 ± 1.5%) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.2 ± 1.3%). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the intermodel difference. The intermodel difference in runoff changes is mainly caused not only by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shih, T. I-P.; Yang, S. L.; Schock, H. J.
1986-01-01
A numerical study was performed to investigate the unsteady, multidimensional flow inside the combustion chambers of an idealized, two-dimensional, rotary engine under motored conditions. The numerical study was based on the time-dependent, two-dimensional, density-weighted, ensemble-averaged conservation equations of mass, species, momentum, and total energy valid for two-component ideal gas mixtures. The ensemble-averaged conservation equations were closed by a K-epsilon model of turbulence. This K-epsilon model of turbulence was modified to account for some of the effects of compressibility, streamline curvature, low-Reynolds number, and preferential stress dissipation. Numerical solutions to the conservation equations were obtained by the highly efficient implicit-factored method of Beam and Warming. The grid system needed to obtain solutions were generated by an algebraic grid generation technique based on transfinite interpolation. Results of the numerical study are presented in graphical form illustrating the flow patterns during intake, compression, gaseous fuel injection, expansion, and exhaust.
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Effects of a Rotating Aerodynamic Probe on the Flow Field of a Compressor Rotor
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lepicovsky, Jan
2008-01-01
An investigation of distortions of the rotor exit flow field caused by an aerodynamic probe mounted in the rotor is described in this paper. A rotor total pressure Kiel probe, mounted on the rotor hub and extending up to the mid-span radius of a rotor blade channel, generates a wake that forms additional flow blockage. Three types of high-response aerodynamic probes were used to investigate the distorted flow field behind the rotor. These probes were: a split-fiber thermo-anemometric probe to measure velocity and flow direction, a total pressure probe, and a disk probe for in-flow static pressure measurement. The signals acquired from these high-response probes were reduced using an ensemble averaging method based on a once per rotor revolution signal. The rotor ensemble averages were combined to construct contour plots for each rotor channel of the rotor tested. In order to quantify the rotor probe effects, the contour plots for each individual rotor blade passage were averaged into a single value. The distribution of these average values along the rotor circumference is a measure of changes in the rotor exit flow field due to the presence of a probe in the rotor. These distributions were generated for axial flow velocity and for static pressure.
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Using beta binomials to estimate classification uncertainty for ensemble models.
Clark, Robert D; Liang, Wenkel; Lee, Adam C; Lawless, Michael S; Fraczkiewicz, Robert; Waldman, Marvin
2014-01-01
Quantitative structure-activity (QSAR) models have enormous potential for reducing drug discovery and development costs as well as the need for animal testing. Great strides have been made in estimating their overall reliability, but to fully realize that potential, researchers and regulators need to know how confident they can be in individual predictions. Submodels in an ensemble model which have been trained on different subsets of a shared training pool represent multiple samples of the model space, and the degree of agreement among them contains information on the reliability of ensemble predictions. For artificial neural network ensembles (ANNEs) using two different methods for determining ensemble classification - one using vote tallies and the other averaging individual network outputs - we have found that the distribution of predictions across positive vote tallies can be reasonably well-modeled as a beta binomial distribution, as can the distribution of errors. Together, these two distributions can be used to estimate the probability that a given predictive classification will be in error. Large data sets comprised of logP, Ames mutagenicity, and CYP2D6 inhibition data are used to illustrate and validate the method. The distributions of predictions and errors for the training pool accurately predicted the distribution of predictions and errors for large external validation sets, even when the number of positive and negative examples in the training pool were not balanced. Moreover, the likelihood of a given compound being prospectively misclassified as a function of the degree of consensus between networks in the ensemble could in most cases be estimated accurately from the fitted beta binomial distributions for the training pool. Confidence in an individual predictive classification by an ensemble model can be accurately assessed by examining the distributions of predictions and errors as a function of the degree of agreement among the constituent submodels. Further, ensemble uncertainty estimation can often be improved by adjusting the voting or classification threshold based on the parameters of the error distribution. Finally, the profiles for models whose predictive uncertainty estimates are not reliable provide clues to that effect without the need for comparison to an external test set.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C.
2017-12-01
Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS.
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Control Coordination of Multiple Agents Through Decision Theoretic and Economic Methods
2003-02-01
instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information...investigated the design of test data for benchmarking such optimization algorithms. Our other research on combinatorial auctions included I...average combination rule. We exemplified these theoretical results with experiments on stock market data , demonstrating how ensembles of classifiers can
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Garber, Donald P.
1993-01-01
A probability density function for the variability of ensemble averaged spectral estimates from helicopter acoustic signals in Gaussian background noise was evaluated. Numerical methods for calculating the density function and for determining confidence limits were explored. Density functions were predicted for both synthesized and experimental data and compared with observed spectral estimate variability.
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Ensemble training to improve recognition using 2D ear
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Middendorff, Christopher; Bowyer, Kevin W.
2009-05-01
The ear has gained popularity as a biometric feature due to the robustness of the shape over time and across emotional expression. Popular methods of ear biometrics analyze the ear as a whole, leaving these methods vulnerable to error due to occlusion. Many researchers explore ear recognition using an ensemble, but none present a method for designing the individual parts that comprise the ensemble. In this work, we introduce a method of modifying the ensemble shapes to improve performance. We determine how different properties of an ensemble training system can affect overall performance. We show that ensembles built from small parts will outperform ensembles built with larger parts, and that incorporating a large number of parts improves the performance of the ensemble.
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Self-averaging and weak ergodicity breaking of diffusion in heterogeneous media
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Russian, Anna; Dentz, Marco; Gouze, Philippe
2017-08-01
Diffusion in natural and engineered media is quantified in terms of stochastic models for the heterogeneity-induced fluctuations of particle motion. However, fundamental properties such as ergodicity and self-averaging and their dependence on the disorder distribution are often not known. Here, we investigate these questions for diffusion in quenched disordered media characterized by spatially varying retardation properties, which account for particle retention due to physical or chemical interactions with the medium. We link self-averaging and ergodicity to the disorder sampling efficiency Rn, which quantifies the number of disorder realizations a noise ensemble may sample in a single disorder realization. Diffusion for disorder scenarios characterized by a finite mean transition time is ergodic and self-averaging for any dimension. The strength of the sample to sample fluctuations decreases with increasing spatial dimension. For an infinite mean transition time, particle motion is weakly ergodicity breaking in any dimension because single particles cannot sample the heterogeneity spectrum in finite time. However, even though the noise ensemble is not representative of the single-particle time statistics, subdiffusive motion in q ≥2 dimensions is self-averaging, which means that the noise ensemble in a single realization samples a representative part of the heterogeneity spectrum.
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Statistical characterization of planar two-dimensional Rayleigh-Taylor mixing layers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sendersky, Dmitry
2000-10-01
The statistical evolution of a planar, randomly perturbed fluid interface subject to Rayleigh-Taylor instability is explored through numerical simulation in two space dimensions. The data set, generated by the front-tracking code FronTier, is highly resolved and covers a large ensemble of initial perturbations, allowing a more refined analysis of closure issues pertinent to the stochastic modeling of chaotic fluid mixing. We closely approach a two-fold convergence of the mean two-phase flow: convergence of the numerical solution under computational mesh refinement, and statistical convergence under increasing ensemble size. Quantities that appear in the two-phase averaged Euler equations are computed directly and analyzed for numerical and statistical convergence. Bulk averages show a high degree of convergence, while interfacial averages are convergent only in the outer portions of the mixing zone, where there is a coherent array of bubble and spike tips. Comparison with the familiar bubble/spike penetration law h = alphaAgt 2 is complicated by the lack of scale invariance, inability to carry the simulations to late time, the increasing Mach numbers of the bubble/spike tips, and sensitivity to the method of data analysis. Finally, we use the simulation data to analyze some constitutive properties of the mixing process.
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Rainfall estimation with TFR model using Ensemble Kalman filter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asyiqotur Rohmah, Nabila; Apriliani, Erna
2018-03-01
Rainfall fluctuation can affect condition of other environment, correlated with economic activity and public health. The increasing of global average temperature is influenced by the increasing of CO2 in the atmosphere, which caused climate change. Meanwhile, the forests as carbon sinks that help keep the carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Climate change caused by rainfall intensity deviations can affect the economy of a region, and even countries. It encourages research on rainfall associated with an area of forest. In this study, the mathematics model that used is a model which describes the global temperatures, forest cover, and seasonal rainfall called the TFR (temperature, forest cover, and rainfall) model. The model will be discretized first, and then it will be estimated by the method of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The result shows that the more ensembles used in estimation, the better the result is. Also, the accurateness of simulation result is influenced by measurement variable. If a variable is measurement data, the result of simulation is better.
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Conformational ensembles of RNA oligonucleotides from integrating NMR and molecular simulations.
Bottaro, Sandro; Bussi, Giovanni; Kennedy, Scott D; Turner, Douglas H; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten
2018-05-01
RNA molecules are key players in numerous cellular processes and are characterized by a complex relationship between structure, dynamics, and function. Despite their apparent simplicity, RNA oligonucleotides are very flexible molecules, and understanding their internal dynamics is particularly challenging using experimental data alone. We show how to reconstruct the conformational ensemble of four RNA tetranucleotides by combining atomistic molecular dynamics simulations with nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy data. The goal is achieved by reweighting simulations using a maximum entropy/Bayesian approach. In this way, we overcome problems of current simulation methods, as well as in interpreting ensemble- and time-averaged experimental data. We determine the populations of different conformational states by considering several nuclear magnetic resonance parameters and point toward properties that are not captured by state-of-the-art molecular force fields. Although our approach is applied on a set of model systems, it is fully general and may be used to study the conformational dynamics of flexible biomolecules and to detect inaccuracies in molecular dynamics force fields.
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MacQuarrie, E. R.; Otten, M.; Gray, S. K.; ...
2017-02-06
Cooling a mechanical resonator mode to a sub-thermal state has been a long-standing challenge in physics. This pursuit has recently found traction in the field of optomechanics in which a mechanical mode is coupled to an optical cavity. An alternate method is to couple the resonator to a well-controlled two-level system. Here we propose a protocol to dissipatively cool a room temperature mechanical resonator using a nitrogen-vacancy centre ensemble. The spin ensemble is coupled to the resonator through its orbitally-averaged excited state, which has a spin-strain interaction that has not been previously studied. We experimentally demonstrate that the spin-strain couplingmore » in the excited state is 13.5 ± 0.5 times stronger than the ground state spin-strain coupling. Lastly, we then theoretically show that this interaction, combined with a high-density spin ensemble, enables the cooling of a mechanical resonator from room temperature to a fraction of its thermal phonon occupancy.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
MacQuarrie, E. R.; Otten, M.; Gray, S. K.
Cooling a mechanical resonator mode to a sub-thermal state has been a long-standing challenge in physics. This pursuit has recently found traction in the field of optomechanics in which a mechanical mode is coupled to an optical cavity. An alternate method is to couple the resonator to a well-controlled two-level system. Here we propose a protocol to dissipatively cool a room temperature mechanical resonator using a nitrogen-vacancy centre ensemble. The spin ensemble is coupled to the resonator through its orbitally-averaged excited state, which has a spin-strain interaction that has not been previously studied. We experimentally demonstrate that the spin-strain couplingmore » in the excited state is 13.5 ± 0.5 times stronger than the ground state spin-strain coupling. Lastly, we then theoretically show that this interaction, combined with a high-density spin ensemble, enables the cooling of a mechanical resonator from room temperature to a fraction of its thermal phonon occupancy.« less
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Multi-criterion model ensemble of CMIP5 surface air temperature over China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Tiantian; Tao, Yumeng; Li, Jingjing; Zhu, Qian; Su, Lu; He, Xiaojia; Zhang, Xiaoming
2018-05-01
The global circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for simulating climate change, projecting future temperature changes, and therefore, supporting the preparation of national climate adaptation plans. However, different GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over various regions. The reason is that GCMs' configurations, module characteristics, and dynamic forcings vary from one to another. Model ensemble techniques are extensively used to post-process the outputs from GCMs and improve the variability of model outputs. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC, or R) and uncertainty are commonly used statistics for evaluating the performances of GCMs. However, the simultaneous achievements of all satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed in using many model ensemble techniques. In this paper, we propose a multi-model ensemble framework, using a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm (termed MOSPD), to evaluate different characteristics of ensemble candidates and to provide comprehensive trade-off information for different model ensemble solutions. A case study of optimizing the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over different geographical regions of China is carried out. The data covers from the period of 1900 to 2100, and the projections of SAT are analyzed with regard to three different statistical indices (i.e., RMSE, CC, and uncertainty). Among the derived ensemble solutions, the trade-off information is further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistics. The comparison results over historical period (1900-2005) show that the optimized solutions are superior over that obtained simple model average, as well as any single GCM output. The improvements of statistics are varying for different climatic regions over China. Future projection (2006-2100) with the proposed ensemble method identifies that the largest (smallest) temperature changes will happen in the South Central China (the Inner Mongolia), the North Eastern China (the South Central China), and the North Western China (the South Central China), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.
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Ensemble Weight Enumerators for Protograph LDPC Codes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Divsalar, Dariush
2006-01-01
Recently LDPC codes with projected graph, or protograph structures have been proposed. In this paper, finite length ensemble weight enumerators for LDPC codes with protograph structures are obtained. Asymptotic results are derived as the block size goes to infinity. In particular we are interested in obtaining ensemble average weight enumerators for protograph LDPC codes which have minimum distance that grows linearly with block size. As with irregular ensembles, linear minimum distance property is sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. In this paper the derived results on ensemble weight enumerators show that linear minimum distance condition on degree distribution of unstructured irregular LDPC codes is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for protograph LDPC codes.
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Variety of Behavior of Equity Returns in Financial Markets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonanno, Giovanni; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.
2001-03-01
The price dynamics of a set of equities traded in an efficient market is pretty complex. It consists of almost not redundant time series which have (i) long-range correlated volatility and (ii) cross-correlation between each pair of equities. We perform a study of the statistical properties of an ensemble of equities returns which is fruitful to elucidate the nature and role of time and ensemble correlation. Specifically, we investigate a statistical ensemble of daily returns of n equities traded in United States financial markets. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days [1] with the exception of crash and rally days and of the days following to these extreme events [2]. We analyze each ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. We call the second moment of the ensemble return distribution the variety of the market. We choose this term because high variety implies a variated behavior of the equities returns in the considered day. We observe that the mean return and the variety are fluctuating in time and are stochastic processes themselves. The variety is a long-range correlated stochastic process. Customary time-averaged statistical properties of time series of stock returns are also considered. In general, time-averaged and portfolio-averaged returns have different statistical properties [1]. We infer from these differences information about the relative strength of correlation between equities and between different trading days. We also compare our empirical results with those predicted by the single-index model and we conclude that this simple model is unable to explain the statistical properties of the second moment of the ensemble return distribution. Correlation between pairs of equities are continuously present in the dynamics of a stock portfolio. Hence, it is relevant to investigate pair correlation in a efficient and original way. We propose to investigate these correlations at a daily and intra daily time horizon with a method based on concepts of random frustrated systems. Specifically, a hierarchical organization of the investigated equities is obtained by determining a metric distance between stocks and by investigating the properties of the subdominant ultrametric associated with it [3]. The high-frequency cross-correlation existing between pairs of equities are investigated in a set of 100 stocks traded in US equity markets. The decrease of the cross-correlation between the equity returns observed for diminishing time horizons progressively changes the nature of the hierarchical structure associated to each different time horizon [4]. The nature of the correlation present between pairs of time series of equity returns collected in a portfolio has a strong influence on the variety of the market. We finally discuss the relation between pair correlation and variety of an ensemble return distribution. References [1] Fabrizio Lillo and Rosario N. Mantegna, Variety and volatility in financial markets, Phys. Rev. E 62, 6126-6134 (2000). [2] Fabrizio Lillo and Rosario N. Mantegna, Symmetry alteration of ensemble return distribution in crash and rally days of financial market, Eur. Phys. J. B 15, 603-606 (2000). [3] Rosario N. Mantegna, Hierarchical structure in financial markets, Eur. Phys. J. B 11, 193-197 (1999). [4] Giovanni Bonanno, Fabrizio Lillo, and Rosario N. Mantegna, High-frequency cross-correlation in a set of stocks, Quantitative Finance (in press).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan
2017-10-01
Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.
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An information-theoretical perspective on weighted ensemble forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weijs, Steven V.; van de Giesen, Nick
2013-08-01
This paper presents an information-theoretical method for weighting ensemble forecasts with new information. Weighted ensemble forecasts can be used to adjust the distribution that an existing ensemble of time series represents, without modifying the values in the ensemble itself. The weighting can, for example, add new seasonal forecast information in an existing ensemble of historically measured time series that represents climatic uncertainty. A recent article in this journal compared several methods to determine the weights for the ensemble members and introduced the pdf-ratio method. In this article, a new method, the minimum relative entropy update (MRE-update), is presented. Based on the principle of minimum discrimination information, an extension of the principle of maximum entropy (POME), the method ensures that no more information is added to the ensemble than is present in the forecast. This is achieved by minimizing relative entropy, with the forecast information imposed as constraints. From this same perspective, an information-theoretical view on the various weighting methods is presented. The MRE-update is compared with the existing methods and the parallels with the pdf-ratio method are analysed. The paper provides a new, information-theoretical justification for one version of the pdf-ratio method that turns out to be equivalent to the MRE-update. All other methods result in sets of ensemble weights that, seen from the information-theoretical perspective, add either too little or too much (i.e. fictitious) information to the ensemble.
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Efficient Strategies for Estimating the Spatial Coherence of Backscatter
Hyun, Dongwoon; Crowley, Anna Lisa C.; Dahl, Jeremy J.
2017-01-01
The spatial coherence of ultrasound backscatter has been proposed to reduce clutter in medical imaging, to measure the anisotropy of the scattering source, and to improve the detection of blood flow. These techniques rely on correlation estimates that are obtained using computationally expensive strategies. In this study, we assess existing spatial coherence estimation methods and propose three computationally efficient modifications: a reduced kernel, a downsampled receive aperture, and the use of an ensemble correlation coefficient. The proposed methods are implemented in simulation and in vivo studies. Reducing the kernel to a single sample improved computational throughput and improved axial resolution. Downsampling the receive aperture was found to have negligible effect on estimator variance, and improved computational throughput by an order of magnitude for a downsample factor of 4. The ensemble correlation estimator demonstrated lower variance than the currently used average correlation. Combining the three methods, the throughput was improved 105-fold in simulation with a downsample factor of 4 and 20-fold in vivo with a downsample factor of 2. PMID:27913342
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Filatov, Michael; Liu, Fang; Martínez, Todd J.
2017-07-21
The state-averaged (SA) spin restricted ensemble referenced Kohn-Sham (REKS) method and its state interaction (SI) extension, SI-SA-REKS, enable one to describe correctly the shape of the ground and excited potential energy surfaces of molecules undergoing bond breaking/bond formation reactions including features such as conical intersections crucial for theoretical modeling of non-adiabatic reactions. Until recently, application of the SA-REKS and SI-SA-REKS methods to modeling the dynamics of such reactions was obstructed due to the lack of the analytical energy derivatives. Here, the analytical derivatives of the individual SA-REKS and SI-SA-REKS energies are derived. The final analytic gradient expressions are formulated entirelymore » in terms of traces of matrix products and are presented in the form convenient for implementation in the traditional quantum chemical codes employing basis set expansions of the molecular orbitals. Finally, we will describe the implementation and benchmarking of the derived formalism in a subsequent article of this series.« less
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Application of a Split-Fiber Probe to Velocity Measurement in the NASA Research Compressor
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lepicovsky, Jan
2003-01-01
A split-fiber probe was used to acquire unsteady data in a research compressor. The probe has two thin films deposited on a quartz cylinder 200 microns in diameter. A split-fiber probe allows simultaneous measurement of velocity magnitude and direction in a plane that is perpendicular to the sensing cylinder, because it has its circumference divided into two independent parts. Local heat transfer considerations indicated that the probe direction characteristic is linear in the range of flow incidence angles of +/- 35. Calibration tests confirmed this assumption. Of course, the velocity characteristic is nonlinear as is typical in thermal anemometry. The probe was used extensively in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) low-speed, multistage axial compressor, and worked reliably during a test program of several months duration. The velocity and direction characteristics of the probe showed only minute changes during the entire test program. An algorithm was developed to decompose the probe signals into velocity magnitude and velocity direction. The averaged unsteady data were compared with data acquired by pneumatic probes. An overall excellent agreement between the averaged data acquired by a split-fiber probe and a pneumatic probe boosts confidence in the reliability of the unsteady content of the split-fiber probe data. To investigate the features of unsteady data, two methods were used: ensemble averaging and frequency analysis. The velocity distribution in a rotor blade passage was retrieved using the ensemble averaging method. Frequencies of excitation forces that may contribute to high cycle fatigue problems were identified by applying a fast Fourier transform to the absolute velocity data.
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Ensemble Methods for MiRNA Target Prediction from Expression Data.
Le, Thuc Duy; Zhang, Junpeng; Liu, Lin; Li, Jiuyong
2015-01-01
microRNAs (miRNAs) are short regulatory RNAs that are involved in several diseases, including cancers. Identifying miRNA functions is very important in understanding disease mechanisms and determining the efficacy of drugs. An increasing number of computational methods have been developed to explore miRNA functions by inferring the miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships from data. Each of the methods is developed based on some assumptions and constraints, for instance, assuming linear relationships between variables. For such reasons, computational methods are often subject to the problem of inconsistent performance across different datasets. On the other hand, ensemble methods integrate the results from individual methods and have been proved to outperform each of their individual component methods in theory. In this paper, we investigate the performance of some ensemble methods over the commonly used miRNA target prediction methods. We apply eight different popular miRNA target prediction methods to three cancer datasets, and compare their performance with the ensemble methods which integrate the results from each combination of the individual methods. The validation results using experimentally confirmed databases show that the results of the ensemble methods complement those obtained by the individual methods and the ensemble methods perform better than the individual methods across different datasets. The ensemble method, Pearson+IDA+Lasso, which combines methods in different approaches, including a correlation method, a causal inference method, and a regression method, is the best performed ensemble method in this study. Further analysis of the results of this ensemble method shows that the ensemble method can obtain more targets which could not be found by any of the single methods, and the discovered targets are more statistically significant and functionally enriched. The source codes, datasets, miRNA target predictions by all methods, and the ground truth for validation are available in the Supplementary materials.
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Ensemble Methods for MiRNA Target Prediction from Expression Data
Le, Thuc Duy; Zhang, Junpeng; Liu, Lin; Li, Jiuyong
2015-01-01
Background microRNAs (miRNAs) are short regulatory RNAs that are involved in several diseases, including cancers. Identifying miRNA functions is very important in understanding disease mechanisms and determining the efficacy of drugs. An increasing number of computational methods have been developed to explore miRNA functions by inferring the miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships from data. Each of the methods is developed based on some assumptions and constraints, for instance, assuming linear relationships between variables. For such reasons, computational methods are often subject to the problem of inconsistent performance across different datasets. On the other hand, ensemble methods integrate the results from individual methods and have been proved to outperform each of their individual component methods in theory. Results In this paper, we investigate the performance of some ensemble methods over the commonly used miRNA target prediction methods. We apply eight different popular miRNA target prediction methods to three cancer datasets, and compare their performance with the ensemble methods which integrate the results from each combination of the individual methods. The validation results using experimentally confirmed databases show that the results of the ensemble methods complement those obtained by the individual methods and the ensemble methods perform better than the individual methods across different datasets. The ensemble method, Pearson+IDA+Lasso, which combines methods in different approaches, including a correlation method, a causal inference method, and a regression method, is the best performed ensemble method in this study. Further analysis of the results of this ensemble method shows that the ensemble method can obtain more targets which could not be found by any of the single methods, and the discovered targets are more statistically significant and functionally enriched. The source codes, datasets, miRNA target predictions by all methods, and the ground truth for validation are available in the Supplementary materials. PMID:26114448
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A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the molecular clock based on Bayesian ensembles of phylogenies
Antoneli, Fernando; Passos, Fernando M.; Lopes, Luciano R.
2018-01-01
Divergence date estimates are central to understand evolutionary processes and depend, in the case of molecular phylogenies, on tests of molecular clocks. Here we propose two non-parametric tests of strict and relaxed molecular clocks built upon a framework that uses the empirical cumulative distribution (ECD) of branch lengths obtained from an ensemble of Bayesian trees and well known non-parametric (one-sample and two-sample) Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test. In the strict clock case, the method consists in using the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test to directly test if the phylogeny is clock-like, in other words, if it follows a Poisson law. The ECD is computed from the discretized branch lengths and the parameter λ of the expected Poisson distribution is calculated as the average branch length over the ensemble of trees. To compensate for the auto-correlation in the ensemble of trees and pseudo-replication we take advantage of thinning and effective sample size, two features provided by Bayesian inference MCMC samplers. Finally, it is observed that tree topologies with very long or very short branches lead to Poisson mixtures and in this case we propose the use of the two-sample KS test with samples from two continuous branch length distributions, one obtained from an ensemble of clock-constrained trees and the other from an ensemble of unconstrained trees. Moreover, in this second form the test can also be applied to test for relaxed clock models. The use of a statistically equivalent ensemble of phylogenies to obtain the branch lengths ECD, instead of one consensus tree, yields considerable reduction of the effects of small sample size and provides a gain of power. PMID:29300759
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Optimal averaging of soil moisture predictions from ensemble land surface model simulations
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The correct interpretation of ensemble information obtained from the parallel implementation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) requires information concerning the LSM ensemble’s mutual error covariance. Here we propose a new technique for obtaining such information using an instrumental variabl...
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Liu, Yawen; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun
Aerosols from fire emissions can potentially have large impact on clouds and radiation. However, fire aerosol sources are often intermittent, and their effect on weather and climate is difficult to quantify. Here we investigated the short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols using the global aerosol–climate model Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Different from previous studies, we used nudged hindcast ensembles to quantify the forcing uncertainty due to the chaotic response to small perturbations in the atmosphere state. Daily mean emissions from three fire inventories were used to consider the uncertainty in emission strength and injection heights. The simulated aerosolmore » optical depth (AOD) and mass concentrations were evaluated against in situ measurements and reanalysis data. Overall, the results show the model has reasonably good predicting skills. Short (10-day) nudged ensemble simulations were then performed with and without fire emissions to estimate the effective radiative forcing. Results show fire aerosols have large effects on both liquid and ice clouds over the two selected regions in April 2009. Ensemble mean results show strong negative shortwave cloud radiative effect (SCRE) over almost the entirety of southern Mexico, with a 10-day regional mean value of –3.0 W m –2. Over the central US, the SCRE is positive in the north but negative in the south, and the regional mean SCRE is small (–0.56 W m –2). For the 10-day average, we found a large ensemble spread of regional mean shortwave cloud radiative effect over southern Mexico (15.6 % of the corresponding ensemble mean) and the central US (64.3 %), despite the regional mean AOD time series being almost indistinguishable during the 10-day period. Moreover, the ensemble spread is much larger when using daily averages instead of 10-day averages. In conclusion, this demonstrates the importance of using a large ensemble of simulations to estimate the short-term aerosol effective radiative forcing.« less
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Liu, Yawen; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; ...
2018-01-03
Aerosols from fire emissions can potentially have large impact on clouds and radiation. However, fire aerosol sources are often intermittent, and their effect on weather and climate is difficult to quantify. Here we investigated the short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols using the global aerosol–climate model Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Different from previous studies, we used nudged hindcast ensembles to quantify the forcing uncertainty due to the chaotic response to small perturbations in the atmosphere state. Daily mean emissions from three fire inventories were used to consider the uncertainty in emission strength and injection heights. The simulated aerosolmore » optical depth (AOD) and mass concentrations were evaluated against in situ measurements and reanalysis data. Overall, the results show the model has reasonably good predicting skills. Short (10-day) nudged ensemble simulations were then performed with and without fire emissions to estimate the effective radiative forcing. Results show fire aerosols have large effects on both liquid and ice clouds over the two selected regions in April 2009. Ensemble mean results show strong negative shortwave cloud radiative effect (SCRE) over almost the entirety of southern Mexico, with a 10-day regional mean value of –3.0 W m –2. Over the central US, the SCRE is positive in the north but negative in the south, and the regional mean SCRE is small (–0.56 W m –2). For the 10-day average, we found a large ensemble spread of regional mean shortwave cloud radiative effect over southern Mexico (15.6 % of the corresponding ensemble mean) and the central US (64.3 %), despite the regional mean AOD time series being almost indistinguishable during the 10-day period. Moreover, the ensemble spread is much larger when using daily averages instead of 10-day averages. In conclusion, this demonstrates the importance of using a large ensemble of simulations to estimate the short-term aerosol effective radiative forcing.« less
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Real-Time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the Wsa-Enlil+Cone Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; LaSota, J. A.
2014-12-01
Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions. Real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL+cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). To estimate the effect of uncertainties in determining CME input parameters on arrival time predictions, a distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameter sets are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest, including a probability distribution of CME arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 38 CME events in 2013-2014. For 28 of the ensemble runs containing hits, the observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 14 runs (half). The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the 28 ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time, an average absolute error of 10.0 hours (RMSE=11.4 hours) was found for all 28 ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling sysem was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME. The parameter sensitivity study suggests future directions for the system, such as running ensembles using various magnetogram inputs to the WSA model.
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A stacking ensemble learning framework for annual river ice breakup dates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Wei; Trevor, Bernard
2018-06-01
River ice breakup dates (BDs) are not merely a proxy indicator of climate variability and change, but a direct concern in the management of local ice-caused flooding. A framework of stacking ensemble learning for annual river ice BDs was developed, which included two-level components: member and combining models. The member models described the relations between BD and their affecting indicators; the combining models linked the predicted BD by each member models with the observed BD. Especially, Bayesian regularization back-propagation artificial neural network (BRANN), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were employed as both member and combining models. The candidate combining models also included the simple average methods (SAM). The input variables for member models were selected by a hybrid filter and wrapper method. The performances of these models were examined using the leave-one-out cross validation. As the largest unregulated river in Alberta, Canada with ice jams frequently occurring in the vicinity of Fort McMurray, the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray was selected as the study area. The breakup dates and candidate affecting indicators in 1980-2015 were collected. The results showed that, the BRANN member models generally outperformed the ANFIS member models in terms of better performances and simpler structures. The difference between the R and MI rankings of inputs in the optimal member models may imply that the linear correlation based filter method would be feasible to generate a range of candidate inputs for further screening through other wrapper or embedded IVS methods. The SAM and BRANN combining models generally outperformed all member models. The optimal SAM combining model combined two BRANN member models and improved upon them in terms of average squared errors by 14.6% and 18.1% respectively. In this study, for the first time, the stacking ensemble learning was applied to forecasting of river ice breakup dates, which appeared promising for other river ice forecasting problems.
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Data assimilation of citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.
2017-12-01
Many studies in data assimilation in hydrology have focused on the integration of satellite remote sensing and in-situ monitoring data into hydrologic or land surface models. For flood predictions also, recent studies have demonstrated to assimilate remotely sensed inundation information with flood inundation models. In actual flood disaster situations, citizen collected information including local reports by residents and rescue teams and more recently tweets via social media also contain valuable information. The main interest of this study is how to effectively use such citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping. Here we propose a new data assimilation technique based on pre-conducted ensemble inundation simulations and update inundation depth distributions sequentially when local data becomes available. The propose method is composed by the following two-steps. The first step is based on weighting average of preliminary ensemble simulations, whose weights are updated by Bayesian approach. The second step is based on an optimal interpolation, where the covariance matrix is calculated from the ensemble simulations. The proposed method was applied to case studies including an actual flood event occurred. It considers two situations with more idealized one by assuming continuous flood inundation depth information is available at multiple locations. The other one, which is more realistic case during such a severe flood disaster, assumes uncertain and non-continuous information is available to be assimilated. The results show that, in the first idealized situation, the large scale inundation during the flooding was estimated reasonably with RMSE < 0.4 m in average. For the second more realistic situation, the error becomes larger (RMSE 0.5 m) and the impact of the optimal interpolation becomes comparatively less effective. Nevertheless, the applications of the proposed data assimilation method demonstrated a high potential of this method for assimilating citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping in the future.
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Quantifying Nucleic Acid Ensembles with X-ray Scattering Interferometry.
Shi, Xuesong; Bonilla, Steve; Herschlag, Daniel; Harbury, Pehr
2015-01-01
The conformational ensemble of a macromolecule is the complete description of the macromolecule's solution structures and can reveal important aspects of macromolecular folding, recognition, and function. However, most experimental approaches determine an average or predominant structure, or follow transitions between states that each can only be described by an average structure. Ensembles have been extremely difficult to experimentally characterize. We present the unique advantages and capabilities of a new biophysical technique, X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI), for probing and quantifying structural ensembles. XSI measures the interference of scattered waves from two heavy metal probes attached site specifically to a macromolecule. A Fourier transform of the interference pattern gives the fractional abundance of different probe separations directly representing the multiple conformation states populated by the macromolecule. These probe-probe distance distributions can then be used to define the structural ensemble of the macromolecule. XSI provides accurate, calibrated distance in a model-independent fashion with angstrom scale sensitivity in distances. XSI data can be compared in a straightforward manner to atomic coordinates determined experimentally or predicted by molecular dynamics simulations. We describe the conceptual framework for XSI and provide a detailed protocol for carrying out an XSI experiment. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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SVD analysis of Aura TES spectral residuals
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Beer, Reinhard; Kulawik, Susan S.; Rodgers, Clive D.; Bowman, Kevin W.
2005-01-01
Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis is both a powerful diagnostic tool and an effective method of noise filtering. We present the results of an SVD analysis of an ensemble of spectral residuals acquired in September 2004 from a 16-orbit Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) Global Survey and compare them to alternative methods such as zonal averages. In particular, the technique highlights issues such as the orbital variation of instrument response and incompletely modeled effects of surface emissivity and atmospheric composition.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Xue; Lu, Wenxi; Hou, Zeyu; Zhao, Haiqing; Na, Jin
2015-11-01
The purpose of this study was to identify an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for aquifers contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) based on an ensemble of surrogates-based optimization technique. A saturated heterogeneous medium contaminated by nitrobenzene was selected as case study. A new kind of surrogate-based SEAR optimization employing an ensemble surrogate (ES) model together with a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. Four methods, namely radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), kriging (KRG), support vector regression (SVR), and kernel extreme learning machines (KELM), were used to create four individual surrogate models, which were then compared. The comparison enabled us to select the two most accurate models (KELM and KRG) to establish an ES model of the SEAR simulation model, and the developed ES model as well as these four stand-alone surrogate models was compared. The results showed that the average relative error of the average nitrobenzene removal rates between the ES model and the simulation model for 20 test samples was 0.8%, which is a high approximation accuracy, and which indicates that the ES model provides more accurate predictions than the stand-alone surrogate models. Then, a nonlinear optimization model was formulated for the minimum cost, and the developed ES model was embedded into this optimization model as a constrained condition. Besides, GA was used to solve the optimization model to provide the optimal SEAR strategy. The developed ensemble surrogate-optimization approach was effective in seeking a cost-effective SEAR strategy for heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites. This research is expected to enrich and develop the theoretical and technical implications for the analysis of remediation strategy optimization of DNAPL-contaminated aquifers.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lu, W., Sr.; Xin, X.; Luo, J.; Jiang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Chen, M.; Hou, Z.; Ouyang, Q.
2015-12-01
The purpose of this study was to identify an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for aquifers contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) based on an ensemble of surrogates-based optimization technique. A saturated heterogeneous medium contaminated by nitrobenzene was selected as case study. A new kind of surrogate-based SEAR optimization employing an ensemble surrogate (ES) model together with a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. Four methods, namely radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), kriging (KRG), support vector regression (SVR), and kernel extreme learning machines (KELM), were used to create four individual surrogate models, which were then compared. The comparison enabled us to select the two most accurate models (KELM and KRG) to establish an ES model of the SEAR simulation model, and the developed ES model as well as these four stand-alone surrogate models was compared. The results showed that the average relative error of the average nitrobenzene removal rates between the ES model and the simulation model for 20 test samples was 0.8%, which is a high approximation accuracy, and which indicates that the ES model provides more accurate predictions than the stand-alone surrogate models. Then, a nonlinear optimization model was formulated for the minimum cost, and the developed ES model was embedded into this optimization model as a constrained condition. Besides, GA was used to solve the optimization model to provide the optimal SEAR strategy. The developed ensemble surrogate-optimization approach was effective in seeking a cost-effective SEAR strategy for heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites. This research is expected to enrich and develop the theoretical and technical implications for the analysis of remediation strategy optimization of DNAPL-contaminated aquifers.
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Cerruela García, G; García-Pedrajas, N; Luque Ruiz, I; Gómez-Nieto, M Á
2018-03-01
This paper proposes a method for molecular activity prediction in QSAR studies using ensembles of classifiers constructed by means of two supervised subspace projection methods, namely nonparametric discriminant analysis (NDA) and hybrid discriminant analysis (HDA). We studied the performance of the proposed ensembles compared to classical ensemble methods using four molecular datasets and eight different models for the representation of the molecular structure. Using several measures and statistical tests for classifier comparison, we observe that our proposal improves the classification results with respect to classical ensemble methods. Therefore, we show that ensembles constructed using supervised subspace projections offer an effective way of creating classifiers in cheminformatics.
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Optimal averaging of soil moisture predictions from ensemble land surface model simulations
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The correct interpretation of ensemble 3 soil moisture information obtained from the parallel implementation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) requires information concerning the LSM ensemble’s mutual error covariance. Here we propose a new technique for obtaining such information using an inst...
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Annealed importance sampling with constant cooling rate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Giovannelli, Edoardo; Cardini, Gianni; Gellini, Cristina; Pietraperzia, Giangaetano; Chelli, Riccardo
2015-02-01
Annealed importance sampling is a simulation method devised by Neal [Stat. Comput. 11, 125 (2001)] to assign weights to configurations generated by simulated annealing trajectories. In particular, the equilibrium average of a generic physical quantity can be computed by a weighted average exploiting weights and estimates of this quantity associated to the final configurations of the annealed trajectories. Here, we review annealed importance sampling from the perspective of nonequilibrium path-ensemble averages [G. E. Crooks, Phys. Rev. E 61, 2361 (2000)]. The equivalence of Neal's and Crooks' treatments highlights the generality of the method, which goes beyond the mere thermal-based protocols. Furthermore, we show that a temperature schedule based on a constant cooling rate outperforms stepwise cooling schedules and that, for a given elapsed computer time, performances of annealed importance sampling are, in general, improved by increasing the number of intermediate temperatures.
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Ozcift, Akin; Gulten, Arif
2011-12-01
Improving accuracies of machine learning algorithms is vital in designing high performance computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) systems. Researches have shown that a base classifier performance might be enhanced by ensemble classification strategies. In this study, we construct rotation forest (RF) ensemble classifiers of 30 machine learning algorithms to evaluate their classification performances using Parkinson's, diabetes and heart diseases from literature. While making experiments, first the feature dimension of three datasets is reduced using correlation based feature selection (CFS) algorithm. Second, classification performances of 30 machine learning algorithms are calculated for three datasets. Third, 30 classifier ensembles are constructed based on RF algorithm to assess performances of respective classifiers with the same disease data. All the experiments are carried out with leave-one-out validation strategy and the performances of the 60 algorithms are evaluated using three metrics; classification accuracy (ACC), kappa error (KE) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Base classifiers succeeded 72.15%, 77.52% and 84.43% average accuracies for diabetes, heart and Parkinson's datasets, respectively. As for RF classifier ensembles, they produced average accuracies of 74.47%, 80.49% and 87.13% for respective diseases. RF, a newly proposed classifier ensemble algorithm, might be used to improve accuracy of miscellaneous machine learning algorithms to design advanced CADx systems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Maggioni, V.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Reichle, R. H.
2013-01-01
The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio
2012-03-01
Ensemble methods are statistical and computational learning procedures reminiscent of the human social learning behavior of seeking several opinions before making any crucial decision. The idea of combining the opinions of different "experts" to obtain an overall “ensemble” decision is rooted in our culture at least from the classical age of ancient Greece, and it has been formalized during the Enlightenment with the Condorcet Jury Theorem[45]), which proved that the judgment of a committee is superior to those of individuals, provided the individuals have reasonable competence. Ensembles are sets of learning machines that combine in some way their decisions, or their learning algorithms, or different views of data, or other specific characteristics to obtain more reliable and more accurate predictions in supervised and unsupervised learning problems [48,116]. A simple example is represented by the majority vote ensemble, by which the decisions of different learning machines are combined, and the class that receives the majority of “votes” (i.e., the class predicted by the majority of the learning machines) is the class predicted by the overall ensemble [158]. In the literature, a plethora of terms other than ensembles has been used, such as fusion, combination, aggregation, and committee, to indicate sets of learning machines that work together to solve a machine learning problem [19,40,56,66,99,108,123], but in this chapter we maintain the term ensemble in its widest meaning, in order to include the whole range of combination methods. Nowadays, ensemble methods represent one of the main current research lines in machine learning [48,116], and the interest of the research community on ensemble methods is witnessed by conferences and workshops specifically devoted to ensembles, first of all the multiple classifier systems (MCS) conference organized by Roli, Kittler, Windeatt, and other researchers of this area [14,62,85,149,173]. Several theories have been proposed to explain the characteristics and the successful application of ensembles to different application domains. For instance, Allwein, Schapire, and Singer interpreted the improved generalization capabilities of ensembles of learning machines in the framework of large margin classifiers [4,177], Kleinberg in the context of stochastic discrimination theory [112], and Breiman and Friedman in the light of the bias-variance analysis borrowed from classical statistics [21,70]. Empirical studies showed that both in classification and regression problems, ensembles improve on single learning machines, and moreover large experimental studies compared the effectiveness of different ensemble methods on benchmark data sets [10,11,49,188]. The interest in this research area is motivated also by the availability of very fast computers and networks of workstations at a relatively low cost that allow the implementation and the experimentation of complex ensemble methods using off-the-shelf computer platforms. However, as explained in Section 26.2 there are deeper reasons to use ensembles of learning machines, motivated by the intrinsic characteristics of the ensemble methods. The main aim of this chapter is to introduce ensemble methods and to provide an overview and a bibliography of the main areas of research, without pretending to be exhaustive or to explain the detailed characteristics of each ensemble method. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, the main theoretical and practical reasons for combining multiple learners are introduced. Section 26.3 depicts the main taxonomies on ensemble methods proposed in the literature. In Section 26.4 and 26.5, we present an overview of the main supervised ensemble methods reported in the literature, adopting a simple taxonomy, originally proposed in Ref. [201]. Applications of ensemble methods are only marginally considered, but a specific section on some relevant applications of ensemble methods in astronomy and astrophysics has been added (Section 26.6). The conclusion (Section 26.7) ends this paper and lists some issues not covered in this work.
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On estimating attenuation from the amplitude of the spectrally whitened ambient seismic field
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weemstra, Cornelis; Westra, Willem; Snieder, Roel; Boschi, Lapo
2014-06-01
Measuring attenuation on the basis of interferometric, receiver-receiver surface waves is a non-trivial task: the amplitude, more than the phase, of ensemble-averaged cross-correlations is strongly affected by non-uniformities in the ambient wavefield. In addition, ambient noise data are typically pre-processed in ways that affect the amplitude itself. Some authors have recently attempted to measure attenuation in receiver-receiver cross-correlations obtained after the usual pre-processing of seismic ambient-noise records, including, most notably, spectral whitening. Spectral whitening replaces the cross-spectrum with a unit amplitude spectrum. It is generally assumed that cross-terms have cancelled each other prior to spectral whitening. Cross-terms are peaks in the cross-correlation due to simultaneously acting noise sources, that is, spurious traveltime delays due to constructive interference of signal coming from different sources. Cancellation of these cross-terms is a requirement for the successful retrieval of interferometric receiver-receiver signal and results from ensemble averaging. In practice, ensemble averaging is replaced by integrating over sufficiently long time or averaging over several cross-correlation windows. Contrary to the general assumption, we show in this study that cross-terms are not required to cancel each other prior to spectral whitening, but may also cancel each other after the whitening procedure. Specifically, we derive an analytic approximation for the amplitude difference associated with the reversed order of cancellation and normalization. Our approximation shows that an amplitude decrease results from the reversed order. This decrease is predominantly non-linear at small receiver-receiver distances: at distances smaller than approximately two wavelengths, whitening prior to ensemble averaging causes a significantly stronger decay of the cross-spectrum.
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Addison, Paul S; Foo, David M H; Jacquel, Dominique
2017-07-01
The extraction of heart rate from a video-based biosignal during motion using a novel wavelet-based ensemble averaging method is described. Running Wavelet Archetyping (RWA) allows for the enhanced extraction of pulse information from the time-frequency representation, from which a video-based heart rate (HRvid) can be derived. This compares favorably to a reference heart rate derived from a pulse oximeter.
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DREAM: An Efficient Methodology for DSMC Simulation of Unsteady Processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cave, H. M.; Jermy, M. C.; Tseng, K. C.; Wu, J. S.
2008-12-01
A technique called the DSMC Rapid Ensemble Averaging Method (DREAM) for reducing the statistical scatter in the output from unsteady DSMC simulations is introduced. During post-processing by DREAM, the DSMC algorithm is re-run multiple times over a short period before the temporal point of interest thus building up a combination of time- and ensemble-averaged sampling data. The particle data is regenerated several mean collision times before the output time using the particle data generated during the original DSMC run. This methodology conserves the original phase space data from the DSMC run and so is suitable for reducing the statistical scatter in highly non-equilibrium flows. In this paper, the DREAM-II method is investigated and verified in detail. Propagating shock waves at high Mach numbers (Mach 8 and 12) are simulated using a parallel DSMC code (PDSC) and then post-processed using DREAM. The ability of DREAM to obtain the correct particle velocity distribution in the shock structure is demonstrated and the reduction of statistical scatter in the output macroscopic properties is measured. DREAM is also used to reduce the statistical scatter in the results from the interaction of a Mach 4 shock with a square cavity and for the interaction of a Mach 12 shock on a wedge in a channel.
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Li, Wenjin
2018-02-28
Transition path ensemble consists of reactive trajectories and possesses all the information necessary for the understanding of the mechanism and dynamics of important condensed phase processes. However, quantitative description of the properties of the transition path ensemble is far from being established. Here, with numerical calculations on a model system, the equipartition terms defined in thermal equilibrium were for the first time estimated in the transition path ensemble. It was not surprising to observe that the energy was not equally distributed among all the coordinates. However, the energies distributed on a pair of conjugated coordinates remained equal. Higher energies were observed to be distributed on several coordinates, which are highly coupled to the reaction coordinate, while the rest were almost equally distributed. In addition, the ensemble-averaged energy on each coordinate as a function of time was also quantified. These quantitative analyses on energy distributions provided new insights into the transition path ensemble.
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Perception of ensemble statistics requires attention.
Jackson-Nielsen, Molly; Cohen, Michael A; Pitts, Michael A
2017-02-01
To overcome inherent limitations in perceptual bandwidth, many aspects of the visual world are represented as summary statistics (e.g., average size, orientation, or density of objects). Here, we investigated the relationship between summary (ensemble) statistics and visual attention. Recently, it was claimed that one ensemble statistic in particular, color diversity, can be perceived without focal attention. However, a broader debate exists over the attentional requirements of conscious perception, and it is possible that some form of attention is necessary for ensemble perception. To test this idea, we employed a modified inattentional blindness paradigm and found that multiple types of summary statistics (color and size) often go unnoticed without attention. In addition, we found attentional costs in dual-task situations, further implicating a role for attention in statistical perception. Overall, we conclude that while visual ensembles may be processed efficiently, some amount of attention is necessary for conscious perception of ensemble statistics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Genetic programming based ensemble system for microarray data classification.
Liu, Kun-Hong; Tong, Muchenxuan; Xie, Shu-Tong; Yee Ng, Vincent To
2015-01-01
Recently, more and more machine learning techniques have been applied to microarray data analysis. The aim of this study is to propose a genetic programming (GP) based new ensemble system (named GPES), which can be used to effectively classify different types of cancers. Decision trees are deployed as base classifiers in this ensemble framework with three operators: Min, Max, and Average. Each individual of the GP is an ensemble system, and they become more and more accurate in the evolutionary process. The feature selection technique and balanced subsampling technique are applied to increase the diversity in each ensemble system. The final ensemble committee is selected by a forward search algorithm, which is shown to be capable of fitting data automatically. The performance of GPES is evaluated using five binary class and six multiclass microarray datasets, and results show that the algorithm can achieve better results in most cases compared with some other ensemble systems. By using elaborate base classifiers or applying other sampling techniques, the performance of GPES may be further improved.
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Genetic Programming Based Ensemble System for Microarray Data Classification
Liu, Kun-Hong; Tong, Muchenxuan; Xie, Shu-Tong; Yee Ng, Vincent To
2015-01-01
Recently, more and more machine learning techniques have been applied to microarray data analysis. The aim of this study is to propose a genetic programming (GP) based new ensemble system (named GPES), which can be used to effectively classify different types of cancers. Decision trees are deployed as base classifiers in this ensemble framework with three operators: Min, Max, and Average. Each individual of the GP is an ensemble system, and they become more and more accurate in the evolutionary process. The feature selection technique and balanced subsampling technique are applied to increase the diversity in each ensemble system. The final ensemble committee is selected by a forward search algorithm, which is shown to be capable of fitting data automatically. The performance of GPES is evaluated using five binary class and six multiclass microarray datasets, and results show that the algorithm can achieve better results in most cases compared with some other ensemble systems. By using elaborate base classifiers or applying other sampling techniques, the performance of GPES may be further improved. PMID:25810748
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Infinitely Dilute Partial Molar Properties of Proteins from Computer Simulation
2015-01-01
A detailed understanding of temperature and pressure effects on an infinitely dilute protein’s conformational equilibrium requires knowledge of the corresponding infinitely dilute partial molar properties. Established molecular dynamics methodologies generally have not provided a way to calculate these properties without either a loss of thermodynamic rigor, the introduction of nonunique parameters, or a loss of information about which solute conformations specifically contributed to the output values. Here we implement a simple method that is thermodynamically rigorous and possesses none of the above disadvantages, and we report on the method’s feasibility and computational demands. We calculate infinitely dilute partial molar properties for two proteins and attempt to distinguish the thermodynamic differences between a native and a denatured conformation of a designed miniprotein. We conclude that simple ensemble average properties can be calculated with very reasonable amounts of computational power. In contrast, properties corresponding to fluctuating quantities are computationally demanding to calculate precisely, although they can be obtained more easily by following the temperature and/or pressure dependence of the corresponding ensemble averages. PMID:25325571
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Ensemble Kalman filter for the reconstruction of the Earth's mantle circulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bocher, Marie; Fournier, Alexandre; Coltice, Nicolas
2018-02-01
Recent advances in mantle convection modeling led to the release of a new generation of convection codes, able to self-consistently generate plate-like tectonics at their surface. Those models physically link mantle dynamics to surface tectonics. Combined with plate tectonic reconstructions, they have the potential to produce a new generation of mantle circulation models that use data assimilation methods and where uncertainties in plate tectonic reconstructions are taken into account. We provided a proof of this concept by applying a suboptimal Kalman filter to the reconstruction of mantle circulation (Bocher et al., 2016). Here, we propose to go one step further and apply the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to this problem. The EnKF is a sequential Monte Carlo method particularly adapted to solve high-dimensional data assimilation problems with nonlinear dynamics. We tested the EnKF using synthetic observations consisting of surface velocity and heat flow measurements on a 2-D-spherical annulus model and compared it with the method developed previously. The EnKF performs on average better and is more stable than the former method. Less than 300 ensemble members are sufficient to reconstruct an evolution. We use covariance adaptive inflation and localization to correct for sampling errors. We show that the EnKF results are robust over a wide range of covariance localization parameters. The reconstruction is associated with an estimation of the error, and provides valuable information on where the reconstruction is to be trusted or not.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Montero-Martinez, M. J.; Colorado, G.; Diaz-Gutierrez, D. E.; Salinas-Prieto, J. A.
2017-12-01
It is well known the North American Monsoon (NAM) region is already a very dry region which is under a lot of stress due to the lack of water resources on multiple locations of the area. However, it is very interesting that even under those conditions, the Mexican part of the NAM region is certainly the most productive in Mexico from the agricultural point of view. Thus, it is very important to have realistic climate scenarios for climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, radiation, etc. This study tries to tackle that problem by generating probabilistic climate scenarios using a weighted CMIP5-GCM ensemble approach based on the Xu et al. (2010) technique which is on itself an improved method from the better known Reliability Ensemble Averaging algorithm of Giorgi and Mearns (2002). In addition, it is compared the 20-plus GCMs individual performances and the weighted ensemble versus observed data (CRU TS2.1) by using different metrics and Taylor diagrams. This study focuses on probabilistic results reaching a certain threshold given the fact that those types of products could be of potential use for agricultural applications.
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Method and apparatus for quantum information processing using entangled neutral-atom qubits
Jau, Yuan Yu; Biedermann, Grant; Deutsch, Ivan
2018-04-03
A method for preparing an entangled quantum state of an atomic ensemble is provided. The method includes loading each atom of the atomic ensemble into a respective optical trap; placing each atom of the atomic ensemble into a same first atomic quantum state by impingement of pump radiation; approaching the atoms of the atomic ensemble to within a dipole-dipole interaction length of each other; Rydberg-dressing the atomic ensemble; during the Rydberg-dressing operation, exciting the atomic ensemble with a Raman pulse tuned to stimulate a ground-state hyperfine transition from the first atomic quantum state to a second atomic quantum state; and separating the atoms of the atomic ensemble by more than a dipole-dipole interaction length.
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A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform vectors for global ensemble generation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deng, Guo; Tian, Hua; Li, Xiaoli; Chen, Jing; Gong, Jiandong; Jiao, Meiyan
2012-02-01
To compare the initial perturbation techniques using breeding vectors and ensemble transform vectors, three ensemble prediction systems using both initial perturbation methods but with different ensemble member sizes based on the spectral model T213/L31 are constructed at the National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration (NMC/CMA). A series of ensemble verification scores such as forecast skill of the ensemble mean, ensemble resolution, and ensemble reliability are introduced to identify the most important attributes of ensemble forecast systems. The results indicate that the ensemble transform technique is superior to the breeding vector method in light of the evaluation of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), which is a deterministic character of the ensemble mean, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and spread, which are of probabilistic attributes, and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and its decomposition. The advantage of the ensemble transform approach is attributed to its orthogonality among ensemble perturbations as well as its consistence with the data assimilation system. Therefore, this study may serve as a reference for configuration of the best ensemble prediction system to be used in operation.
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Yousef, Malik; Khalifa, Waleed; AbedAllah, Loai
2016-12-22
The performance of many learning and data mining algorithms depends critically on suitable metrics to assess efficiency over the input space. Learning a suitable metric from examples may, therefore, be the key to successful application of these algorithms. We have demonstrated that the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) classification can be significantly improved by learning a distance metric from labeled examples. The clustering ensemble is used to define the distance between points in respect to how they co-cluster. This distance is then used within the framework of the kNN algorithm to define a classifier named ensemble clustering kNN classifier (EC-kNN). In many instances in our experiments we achieved highest accuracy while SVM failed to perform as well. In this study, we compare the performance of a two-class classifier using EC-kNN with different one-class and two-class classifiers. The comparison was applied to seven different plant microRNA species considering eight feature selection methods. In this study, the averaged results show that ECkNN outperforms all other methods employed here and previously published results for the same data. In conclusion, this study shows that the chosen classifier shows high performance when the distance metric is carefully chosen.
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Yousef, Malik; Khalifa, Waleed; AbdAllah, Loai
2016-12-01
The performance of many learning and data mining algorithms depends critically on suitable metrics to assess efficiency over the input space. Learning a suitable metric from examples may, therefore, be the key to successful application of these algorithms. We have demonstrated that the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) classification can be significantly improved by learning a distance metric from labeled examples. The clustering ensemble is used to define the distance between points in respect to how they co-cluster. This distance is then used within the framework of the kNN algorithm to define a classifier named ensemble clustering kNN classifier (EC-kNN). In many instances in our experiments we achieved highest accuracy while SVM failed to perform as well. In this study, we compare the performance of a two-class classifier using EC-kNN with different one-class and two-class classifiers. The comparison was applied to seven different plant microRNA species considering eight feature selection methods. In this study, the averaged results show that EC-kNN outperforms all other methods employed here and previously published results for the same data. In conclusion, this study shows that the chosen classifier shows high performance when the distance metric is carefully chosen.
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Vorontsov, Ivan I; Miyashita, Osamu
2011-04-30
Complexes of two Cyanovirin-N (CVN) mutants, m4-CVN and P51G-m4-CVN, with deoxy di-mannose analogs were employed as models to generate conformational ensembles using explicit water Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations in solution and in crystal environment. The results were utilized for evaluation of binding free energies with the molecular mechanics Poisson-Boltzmann (or Generalized Born) surface area, MM/PB(GB)SA, methods. The calculations provided the ranking of deoxy di-mannose ligands affinity in agreement with available qualitative experimental evidences. This confirms the importance of the hydrogen-bond network between di-mannose 3'- and 4'-hydroxyl groups and the protein binding site B(M) as a basis of the CVN activity as an effective HIV fusion inhibitor. Comparison of binding free energies averaged over snapshots from the solution and crystal simulations showed high promises in the use of the crystal matrix for acceleration of the conformational ensemble generation, the most time consuming step in MM/PB(GB)SA approach. Correlation between energy values based on solution versus crystal ensembles is 0.95 for both MM/PBSA and MM/GBSA methods. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Fidelity decay of the two-level bosonic embedded ensembles of random matrices
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Benet, Luis; Hernández-Quiroz, Saúl; Seligman, Thomas H.
2010-12-01
We study the fidelity decay of the k-body embedded ensembles of random matrices for bosons distributed over two single-particle states. Fidelity is defined in terms of a reference Hamiltonian, which is a purely diagonal matrix consisting of a fixed one-body term and includes the diagonal of the perturbing k-body embedded ensemble matrix, and the perturbed Hamiltonian which includes the residual off-diagonal elements of the k-body interaction. This choice mimics the typical mean-field basis used in many calculations. We study separately the cases k = 2 and 3. We compute the ensemble-averaged fidelity decay as well as the fidelity of typical members with respect to an initial random state. Average fidelity displays a revival at the Heisenberg time, t = tH = 1, and a freeze in the fidelity decay, during which periodic revivals of period tH are observed. We obtain the relevant scaling properties with respect to the number of bosons and the strength of the perturbation. For certain members of the ensemble, we find that the period of the revivals during the freeze of fidelity occurs at fractional times of tH. These fractional periodic revivals are related to the dominance of specific k-body terms in the perturbation.
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Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.
2017-06-01
Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.
Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble with its ensemble average, improves a prediction system. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Our study shows that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure applying the average during the model run, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSH53A2143M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSH53A2143M"><span>Real-time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions due to uncertainties in determining CME input parameters. Ensemble modeling of CME propagation in the heliosphere is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. A distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameters are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest (satellites or planets), including a probability distribution of CME shock arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). Ensemble simulations have been performed experimentally in real-time at the CCMC since January 2013. We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 15 CME events, 10 of which were performed in real-time. The observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 5 out of the 12 ensemble runs containing hits. The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the twelve ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time an average absolute error of 8.20 hours was found for all twelve ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling setup was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AIPC.1084..293G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AIPC.1084..293G"><span>Transient Macroscopic Chemistry in the DSMC Method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Goldsworthy, M. J.; Macrossan, M. N.; Abdel-Jawad, M.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>In the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method, a combination of statistical and deterministic procedures applied to a finite number of `simulator' particles are used to model rarefied gas-kinetic processes. Traditionally, chemical reactions are modelled using information from specific colliding particle pairs. In the Macroscopic Chemistry Method (MCM), the reactions are decoupled from the specific particle pairs selected for collisions. Information from all of the particles within a cell is used to determine a reaction rate coefficient for that cell. MCM has previously been applied to steady flow DSMC simulations. Here we show how MCM can be used to model chemical kinetics in DSMC simulations of unsteady flow. Results are compared with a collision-based chemistry procedure for two binary reactions in a 1-D unsteady shock-expansion tube simulation and during the unsteady development of 2-D flow through a cavity. For the shock tube simulation, close agreement is demonstrated between the two methods for instantaneous, ensemble-averaged profiles of temperature and species mole fractions. For the cavity flow, a high degree of thermal non-equilibrium is present and non-equilibrium reaction rate correction factors are employed in MCM. Very close agreement is demonstrated for ensemble averaged mole fraction contours predicted by the particle and macroscopic methods at three different flow-times. A comparison of the accumulated number of net reactions per cell shows that both methods compute identical numbers of reaction events. For the 2-D flow, MCM required similar CPU and memory resources to the particle chemistry method. The Macroscopic Chemistry Method is applicable to any general DSMC code using any viscosity or non-reacting collision models and any non-reacting energy exchange models. MCM can be used to implement any reaction rate formulations, whether these be from experimental or theoretical studies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27329703','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27329703"><span>Robustness of the far-field response of nonlocal plasmonic ensembles.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tserkezis, Christos; Maack, Johan R; Liu, Zhaowei; Wubs, Martijn; Mortensen, N Asger</p> <p>2016-06-22</p> <p>Contrary to classical predictions, the optical response of few-nm plasmonic particles depends on particle size due to effects such as nonlocality and electron spill-out. Ensembles of such nanoparticles are therefore expected to exhibit a nonclassical inhomogeneous spectral broadening due to size distribution. For a normal distribution of free-electron nanoparticles, and within the simple nonlocal hydrodynamic Drude model, both the nonlocal blueshift and the plasmon linewidth are shown to be considerably affected by ensemble averaging. Size-variance effects tend however to conceal nonlocality to a lesser extent when the homogeneous size-dependent broadening of individual nanoparticles is taken into account, either through a local size-dependent damping model or through the Generalized Nonlocal Optical Response theory. The role of ensemble averaging is further explored in realistic distributions of isolated or weakly-interacting noble-metal nanoparticles, as encountered in experiments, while an analytical expression to evaluate the importance of inhomogeneous broadening through measurable quantities is developed. Our findings are independent of the specific nonclassical theory used, thus providing important insight into a large range of experiments on nanoscale and quantum plasmonics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4428879','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4428879"><span>Argumentation Based Joint Learning: A Novel Ensemble Learning Approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Xu, Junyi; Yao, Li; Li, Le</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Recently, ensemble learning methods have been widely used to improve classification performance in machine learning. In this paper, we present a novel ensemble learning method: argumentation based multi-agent joint learning (AMAJL), which integrates ideas from multi-agent argumentation, ensemble learning, and association rule mining. In AMAJL, argumentation technology is introduced as an ensemble strategy to integrate multiple base classifiers and generate a high performance ensemble classifier. We design an argumentation framework named Arena as a communication platform for knowledge integration. Through argumentation based joint learning, high quality individual knowledge can be extracted, and thus a refined global knowledge base can be generated and used independently for classification. We perform numerous experiments on multiple public datasets using AMAJL and other benchmark methods. The results demonstrate that our method can effectively extract high quality knowledge for ensemble classifier and improve the performance of classification. PMID:25966359</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSM.H31A..08K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSM.H31A..08K"><span>Uncertainty analysis of neural network based flood forecasting models: An ensemble based approach for constructing prediction interval</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived prediction interval for a selected hydrograph in the validation data set is presented in Fig 1. It is noted that most of the observed flows lie within the constructed prediction interval, and therefore provides information about the uncertainty of the prediction. One specific advantage of the method is that when ensemble mean value is considered as a forecast, the peak flows are predicted with improved accuracy by this method compared to traditional single point forecasted ANNs. Fig. 1 Prediction Interval for selected hydrograph</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70197818','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70197818"><span>A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Limber, Patrick; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Erikson, Li</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two‐fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 – 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/‐ 5 – 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999AdAtS..16..159K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999AdAtS..16..159K"><span>An ensemble forecast of the South China Sea monsoon</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Krishnamurti, T. N.; Tewari, Mukul; Bensman, Ed; Han, Wei; Zhang, Zhan; Lau, William K. M.</p> <p>1999-05-01</p> <p>This paper presents a generalized ensemble forecast procedure for the tropical latitudes. Here we propose an empirical orthogonal function-based procedure for the definition of a seven-member ensemble. The wind and the temperature fields are perturbed over the global tropics. Although the forecasts are made over the global belt with a high-resolution model, the emphasis of this study is on a South China Sea monsoon. Over this domain of the South China Sea includes the passage of a Tropical Storm, Gary, that moved eastwards north of the Philippines. The ensemble forecast handled the precipitation of this storm reasonably well. A global model at the resolution Triangular Truncation 126 waves is used to carry out these seven forecasts. The evaluation of the ensemble of forecasts is carried out via standard root mean square errors of the precipitation and the wind fields. The ensemble average is shown to have a higher skill compared to a control experiment, which was a first analysis based on operational data sets over both the global tropical and South China Sea domain. All of these experiments were subjected to physical initialization which provides a spin-up of the model rain close to that obtained from satellite and gauge-based estimates. The results furthermore show that inherently much higher skill resides in the forecast precipitation fields if they are averaged over area elements of the order of 4° latitude by 4° longitude squares.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG31A0155W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG31A0155W"><span>Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811746R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811746R"><span>Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rödenbeck, Christian; Bakker, Dorothee; Gruber, Nicolas; Iida, Yosuke; Jacobson, Andy; Jones, Steve; Landschützer, Peter; Metzl, Nicolas; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; Olsen, Are; Park, Geun-Ha; Peylin, Philippe; Rodgers, Keith; Sasse, Tristan; Schuster, Ute; Shutler, James; Valsala, Vinu; Wanninkhof, Rik; Zeng, Jiye</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Using measurements of the surface-ocean COtwo partial pressure (pCOtwo) from the SOCAT and LDEO data bases and 14 different pCOtwo mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCOtwo Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air COtwo fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCOtwo seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCOtwo data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air COtwo flux of IAVampl (standard deviation over AnalysisPeriod), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global ocean COtwo uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean COtwo sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 UPgCyr (AnalysisPeriod), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends. Using data-based sea-air COtwo fluxes in atmospheric COtwo inversions also helps to better constrain land-atmosphere COtwo fluxes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015BGeo...12.7251R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015BGeo...12.7251R"><span>Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 PgC yr-1 (1992-2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1421971-ensemble-averaged-structurefunction-relationship-nanocrystals-effective-superparamagnetic-fe-clusters-catalytically-active-pt-skin-ensemble-averaged-structure-function-relationship-composite-nanocrystals-magnetic-bcc-fe-clusters-catalytically-active-fcc-pt-skin','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1421971-ensemble-averaged-structurefunction-relationship-nanocrystals-effective-superparamagnetic-fe-clusters-catalytically-active-pt-skin-ensemble-averaged-structure-function-relationship-composite-nanocrystals-magnetic-bcc-fe-clusters-catalytically-active-fcc-pt-skin"><span>Ensemble averaged structure–function relationship for nanocrystals: effective superparamagnetic Fe clusters with catalytically active Pt skin [Ensemble averaged structure-function relationship for composite nanocrystals: magnetic bcc Fe clusters with catalytically active fcc Pt skin</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Petkov, Valeri; Prasai, Binay; Shastri, Sarvjit</p> <p></p> <p>Practical applications require the production and usage of metallic nanocrystals (NCs) in large ensembles. Besides, due to their cluster-bulk solid duality, metallic NCs exhibit a large degree of structural diversity. This poses the question as to what atomic-scale basis is to be used when the structure–function relationship for metallic NCs is to be quantified precisely. In this paper, we address the question by studying bi-functional Fe core-Pt skin type NCs optimized for practical applications. In particular, the cluster-like Fe core and skin-like Pt surface of the NCs exhibit superparamagnetic properties and a superb catalytic activity for the oxygen reduction reaction,more » respectively. We determine the atomic-scale structure of the NCs by non-traditional resonant high-energy X-ray diffraction coupled to atomic pair distribution function analysis. Using the experimental structure data we explain the observed magnetic and catalytic behavior of the NCs in a quantitative manner. Lastly, we demonstrate that NC ensemble-averaged 3D positions of atoms obtained by advanced X-ray scattering techniques are a very proper basis for not only establishing but also quantifying the structure–function relationship for the increasingly complex metallic NCs explored for practical applications.« less</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JChPh.148x1731M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JChPh.148x1731M"><span>Refining Markov state models for conformational dynamics using ensemble-averaged data and time-series trajectories</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Matsunaga, Y.; Sugita, Y.</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>A data-driven modeling scheme is proposed for conformational dynamics of biomolecules based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and experimental measurements. In this scheme, an initial Markov State Model (MSM) is constructed from MD simulation trajectories, and then, the MSM parameters are refined using experimental measurements through machine learning techniques. The second step can reduce the bias of MD simulation results due to inaccurate force-field parameters. Either time-series trajectories or ensemble-averaged data are available as a training data set in the scheme. Using a coarse-grained model of a dye-labeled polyproline-20, we compare the performance of machine learning estimations from the two types of training data sets. Machine learning from time-series data could provide the equilibrium populations of conformational states as well as their transition probabilities. It estimates hidden conformational states in more robust ways compared to that from ensemble-averaged data although there are limitations in estimating the transition probabilities between minor states. We discuss how to use the machine learning scheme for various experimental measurements including single-molecule time-series trajectories.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19980037015','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19980037015"><span>Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Hailperin, Max</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5106042','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5106042"><span>An Improved Ensemble of Random Vector Functional Link Networks Based on Particle Swarm Optimization with Double Optimization Strategy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ling, Qing-Hua; Song, Yu-Qing; Han, Fei; Yang, Dan; Huang, De-Shuang</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>For ensemble learning, how to select and combine the candidate classifiers are two key issues which influence the performance of the ensemble system dramatically. Random vector functional link networks (RVFL) without direct input-to-output links is one of suitable base-classifiers for ensemble systems because of its fast learning speed, simple structure and good generalization performance. In this paper, to obtain a more compact ensemble system with improved convergence performance, an improved ensemble of RVFL based on attractive and repulsive particle swarm optimization (ARPSO) with double optimization strategy is proposed. In the proposed method, ARPSO is applied to select and combine the candidate RVFL. As for using ARPSO to select the optimal base RVFL, ARPSO considers both the convergence accuracy on the validation data and the diversity of the candidate ensemble system to build the RVFL ensembles. In the process of combining RVFL, the ensemble weights corresponding to the base RVFL are initialized by the minimum norm least-square method and then further optimized by ARPSO. Finally, a few redundant RVFL is pruned, and thus the more compact ensemble of RVFL is obtained. Moreover, in this paper, theoretical analysis and justification on how to prune the base classifiers on classification problem is presented, and a simple and practically feasible strategy for pruning redundant base classifiers on both classification and regression problems is proposed. Since the double optimization is performed on the basis of the single optimization, the ensemble of RVFL built by the proposed method outperforms that built by some single optimization methods. Experiment results on function approximation and classification problems verify that the proposed method could improve its convergence accuracy as well as reduce the complexity of the ensemble system. PMID:27835638</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27835638','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27835638"><span>An Improved Ensemble of Random Vector Functional Link Networks Based on Particle Swarm Optimization with Double Optimization Strategy.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ling, Qing-Hua; Song, Yu-Qing; Han, Fei; Yang, Dan; Huang, De-Shuang</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>For ensemble learning, how to select and combine the candidate classifiers are two key issues which influence the performance of the ensemble system dramatically. Random vector functional link networks (RVFL) without direct input-to-output links is one of suitable base-classifiers for ensemble systems because of its fast learning speed, simple structure and good generalization performance. In this paper, to obtain a more compact ensemble system with improved convergence performance, an improved ensemble of RVFL based on attractive and repulsive particle swarm optimization (ARPSO) with double optimization strategy is proposed. In the proposed method, ARPSO is applied to select and combine the candidate RVFL. As for using ARPSO to select the optimal base RVFL, ARPSO considers both the convergence accuracy on the validation data and the diversity of the candidate ensemble system to build the RVFL ensembles. In the process of combining RVFL, the ensemble weights corresponding to the base RVFL are initialized by the minimum norm least-square method and then further optimized by ARPSO. Finally, a few redundant RVFL is pruned, and thus the more compact ensemble of RVFL is obtained. Moreover, in this paper, theoretical analysis and justification on how to prune the base classifiers on classification problem is presented, and a simple and practically feasible strategy for pruning redundant base classifiers on both classification and regression problems is proposed. Since the double optimization is performed on the basis of the single optimization, the ensemble of RVFL built by the proposed method outperforms that built by some single optimization methods. Experiment results on function approximation and classification problems verify that the proposed method could improve its convergence accuracy as well as reduce the complexity of the ensemble system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JaJAP..57e8005M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JaJAP..57e8005M"><span>Hybrid classical/quantum simulation for infrared spectroscopy of water</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Maekawa, Yuki; Sasaoka, Kenji; Ube, Takuji; Ishiguro, Takashi; Yamamoto, Takahiro</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>We have developed a hybrid classical/quantum simulation method to calculate the infrared (IR) spectrum of water. The proposed method achieves much higher accuracy than conventional classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations at a much lower computational cost than ab initio MD simulations. The IR spectrum of water is obtained as an ensemble average of the eigenvalues of the dynamical matrix constructed by ab initio calculations, using the positions of oxygen atoms that constitute water molecules obtained from the classical MD simulation. The calculated IR spectrum is in excellent agreement with the experimental IR spectrum.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPIE.5034..289S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPIE.5034..289S"><span>Computation of the ensemble channelized Hotelling observer signal-to-noise ratio for ordered-subset image reconstruction using noisy data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Soares, Edward J.; Gifford, Howard C.; Glick, Stephen J.</p> <p>2003-05-01</p> <p>We investigated the estimation of the ensemble channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for ordered-subset (OS) image reconstruction using noisy projection data. Previously, we computed the ensemble CHO SNR using a method for approximating the channelized covariance of OS reconstruction, which requires knowledge of the noise-free projection data. Here, we use a "plug-in" approach, in which noisy data is used in place of the noise-free data in the aforementioned channelized covariance approximation. Additionally, we evaluated the use of smoothing of the noisy projections before use in the covariance approximation. Additionally, we evaluated the use of smoothing of the noisy projections before use in the covariance calculation. The task was detection of a 10% contrast Gaussian signal within a slice of the MCAT phantom. Simulated projections of the MCAT phantom were scaled and Poisson noise was added to create 100 noisy signal-absent data sets. Simulated projections of the scaled signal were then added to the noisy background projections to create 100 noisy signal-present data set. These noisy data sets were then used to generate 100 estimates of the ensemble CHO SNR for reconstructions at various iterates. For comparison purposes, the same calculation was repeated with the noise-free data. The results, reported as plots of the average CHO SNR generated in this fashion, along with 95% confidence intervals, demonstrate that this approach works very well, and would allow optimization of imaging systems and reconstruction methods using a more accurate object model (i.e., real patient data).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17271695','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17271695"><span>Adaptive interference cancel filter for evoked potential using high-order cumulants.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lin, Bor-Shyh; Lin, Bor-Shing; Chong, Fok-Ching; Lai, Feipei</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>This paper is to present evoked potential (EP) processing using adaptive interference cancel (AIC) filter with second and high order cumulants. In conventional ensemble averaging method, people have to conduct repetitively experiments to record the required data. Recently, the use of AIC structure with second statistics in processing EP has proved more efficiency than traditional averaging method, but it is sensitive to both of the reference signal statistics and the choice of step size. Thus, we proposed higher order statistics-based AIC method to improve these disadvantages. This study was experimented in somatosensory EP corrupted with EEG. Gradient type algorithm is used in AIC method. Comparisons with AIC filter on second, third, fourth order statistics are also presented in this paper. We observed that AIC filter with third order statistics has better convergent performance for EP processing and is not sensitive to the selection of step size and reference input.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27739015','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27739015"><span>Summary statistics in the attentional blink.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>McNair, Nicolas A; Goodbourn, Patrick T; Shone, Lauren T; Harris, Irina M</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>We used the attentional blink (AB) paradigm to investigate the processing stage at which extraction of summary statistics from visual stimuli ("ensemble coding") occurs. Experiment 1 examined whether ensemble coding requires attentional engagement with the items in the ensemble. Participants performed two sequential tasks on each trial: gender discrimination of a single face (T1) and estimating the average emotional expression of an ensemble of four faces (or of a single face, as a control condition) as T2. Ensemble coding was affected by the AB when the tasks were separated by a short temporal lag. In Experiment 2, the order of the tasks was reversed to test whether ensemble coding requires more working-memory resources, and therefore induces a larger AB, than estimating the expression of a single face. Each condition produced a similar magnitude AB in the subsequent gender-discrimination T2 task. Experiment 3 additionally investigated whether the previous results were due to participants adopting a subsampling strategy during the ensemble-coding task. Contrary to this explanation, we found different patterns of performance in the ensemble-coding condition and a condition in which participants were instructed to focus on only a single face within an ensemble. Taken together, these findings suggest that ensemble coding emerges automatically as a result of the deployment of attentional resources across the ensemble of stimuli, prior to information being consolidated in working memory.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28516319','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28516319"><span>Quantitative prediction of drug side effects based on drug-related features.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Niu, Yanqing; Zhang, Wen</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Unexpected side effects of drugs are great concern in the drug development, and the identification of side effects is an important task. Recently, machine learning methods are proposed to predict the presence or absence of interested side effects for drugs, but it is difficult to make the accurate prediction for all of them. In this paper, we transform side effect profiles of drugs as their quantitative scores, by summing up their side effects with weights. The quantitative scores may measure the dangers of drugs, and thus help to compare the risk of different drugs. Here, we attempt to predict quantitative scores of drugs, namely the quantitative prediction. Specifically, we explore a variety of drug-related features and evaluate their discriminative powers for the quantitative prediction. Then, we consider several feature combination strategies (direct combination, average scoring ensemble combination) to integrate three informative features: chemical substructures, targets, and treatment indications. Finally, the average scoring ensemble model which produces the better performances is used as the final quantitative prediction model. Since weights for side effects are empirical values, we randomly generate different weights in the simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the quantitative method is robust to different weights, and produces satisfying results. Although other state-of-the-art methods cannot make the quantitative prediction directly, the prediction results can be transformed as the quantitative scores. By indirect comparison, the proposed method produces much better results than benchmark methods in the quantitative prediction. In conclusion, the proposed method is promising for the quantitative prediction of side effects, which may work cooperatively with existing state-of-the-art methods to reveal dangers of drugs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27915127','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27915127"><span>MindEdit: A P300-based text editor for mobile devices.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Elsawy, Amr S; Eldawlatly, Seif; Taher, Mohamed; Aly, Gamal M</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Practical application of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) requires that the whole BCI system be portable. The mobility of BCI systems involves two aspects: making the electroencephalography (EEG) recording devices portable, and developing software applications with low computational complexity to be able to run on low computational-power devices such as tablets and smartphones. This paper addresses the development of MindEdit; a P300-based text editor for Android-based devices. Given the limited resources of mobile devices and their limited computational power, a novel ensemble classifier is utilized that uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) features to identify P300 evoked potentials from EEG recordings. PCA computations in the proposed method are channel-based as opposed to concatenating all channels as in traditional feature extraction methods; thus, this method has less computational complexity compared to traditional P300 detection methods. The performance of the method is demonstrated on data recorded from MindEdit on an Android tablet using the Emotiv wireless neuroheadset. Results demonstrate the capability of the introduced PCA ensemble classifier to classify P300 data with maximum average accuracy of 78.37±16.09% for cross-validation data and 77.5±19.69% for online test data using only 10 trials per symbol and a 33-character training dataset. Our analysis indicates that the introduced method outperforms traditional feature extraction methods. For a faster operation of MindEdit, a variable number of trials scheme is introduced that resulted in an online average accuracy of 64.17±19.6% and a maximum bitrate of 6.25bit/min. These results demonstrate the efficacy of using the developed BCI application with mobile devices. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17412569','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17412569"><span>An ensemble of paired spin(-1/2) nuclei in a rotating solid: Polarization evolution and NMR spectrum in a wobbling frame.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kundla, Enn</p> <p>2007-04-01</p> <p>The evolution of the magnetic polarization of an ensemble of paired spin(-1/2) nuclei in an MAS NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance) experiment and the induced spectrum are described theoretically by means of a Liouville-von Neumann equation representation in a wobbling rotating frame in combination with the averaged Hamiltonian theory. In this method, the effect of a high-intensity external static magnetic field and the effects of the leftover interaction components of the Hamiltonian that commute with the approximate Hamiltonian are taken into account simultaneously and equivalently. This method reproduces details that really exist in the recorded spectra, caused by secular terms in the Hamiltonian, which might otherwise be smoothed out owing to the approximate treatment of the effects of the secular terms. Complete analytical expressions, which describe the whole NMR spectrum including the rotational sideband sets, and which consider all the relevant intermolecular interactions, are obtained.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17526350','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17526350"><span>A hybrid neurogenetic approach for stock forecasting.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kwon, Yung-Keun; Moon, Byung-Ro</p> <p>2007-05-01</p> <p>In this paper, we propose a hybrid neurogenetic system for stock trading. A recurrent neural network (NN) having one hidden layer is used for the prediction model. The input features are generated from a number of technical indicators being used by financial experts. The genetic algorithm (GA) optimizes the NN's weights under a 2-D encoding and crossover. We devised a context-based ensemble method of NNs which dynamically changes on the basis of the test day's context. To reduce the time in processing mass data, we parallelized the GA on a Linux cluster system using message passing interface. We tested the proposed method with 36 companies in NYSE and NASDAQ for 13 years from 1992 to 2004. The neurogenetic hybrid showed notable improvement on the average over the buy-and-hold strategy and the context-based ensemble further improved the results. We also observed that some companies were more predictable than others, which implies that the proposed neurogenetic hybrid can be used for financial portfolio construction.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24024194','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24024194"><span>An efficient ensemble learning method for gene microarray classification.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Osareh, Alireza; Shadgar, Bita</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The gene microarray analysis and classification have demonstrated an effective way for the effective diagnosis of diseases and cancers. However, it has been also revealed that the basic classification techniques have intrinsic drawbacks in achieving accurate gene classification and cancer diagnosis. On the other hand, classifier ensembles have received increasing attention in various applications. Here, we address the gene classification issue using RotBoost ensemble methodology. This method is a combination of Rotation Forest and AdaBoost techniques which in turn preserve both desirable features of an ensemble architecture, that is, accuracy and diversity. To select a concise subset of informative genes, 5 different feature selection algorithms are considered. To assess the efficiency of the RotBoost, other nonensemble/ensemble techniques including Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Rotation Forest, AdaBoost, and Bagging are also deployed. Experimental results have revealed that the combination of the fast correlation-based feature selection method with ICA-based RotBoost ensemble is highly effective for gene classification. In fact, the proposed method can create ensemble classifiers which outperform not only the classifiers produced by the conventional machine learning but also the classifiers generated by two widely used conventional ensemble learning methods, that is, Bagging and AdaBoost.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1225583','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1225583"><span>Random-matrix approach to the statistical compound nuclear reaction at low energies using the Monte-Carlo technique [PowerPoint</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Kawano, Toshihiko</p> <p>2015-11-10</p> <p>This theoretical treatment of low-energy compound nucleus reactions begins with the Bohr hypothesis, with corrections, and various statistical theories. The author investigates the statistical properties of the scattering matrix containing a Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE) Hamiltonian in the propagator. The following conclusions are reached: For all parameter values studied, the numerical average of MC-generated cross sections coincides with the result of the Verbaarschot, Weidenmueller, Zirnbauer triple-integral formula. Energy average and ensemble average agree reasonably well when the width I is one or two orders of magnitude larger than the average resonance spacing d. In the strong-absorption limit, the channel degree-of-freedommore » ν a is 2. The direct reaction increases the inelastic cross sections while the elastic cross section is reduced.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790007422','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790007422"><span>Modeling the effects of high-G stress on pilots in a tracking task</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Korn, J.; Kleinman, D. L.</p> <p>1978-01-01</p> <p>Air-to-air tracking experiments were conducted at the Aerospace Medical Research Laboratories using both fixed and moving base dynamic environment simulators. The obtained data, which includes longitudinal error of a simulated air-to-air tracking task as well as other auxiliary variables, was analyzed using an ensemble averaging method. In conjunction with these experiments, the optimal control model is applied to model a human operator under high-G stress.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28674556','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28674556"><span>EFS: an ensemble feature selection tool implemented as R-package and web-application.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Neumann, Ursula; Genze, Nikita; Heider, Dominik</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Feature selection methods aim at identifying a subset of features that improve the prediction performance of subsequent classification models and thereby also simplify their interpretability. Preceding studies demonstrated that single feature selection methods can have specific biases, whereas an ensemble feature selection has the advantage to alleviate and compensate for these biases. The software EFS (Ensemble Feature Selection) makes use of multiple feature selection methods and combines their normalized outputs to a quantitative ensemble importance. Currently, eight different feature selection methods have been integrated in EFS, which can be used separately or combined in an ensemble. EFS identifies relevant features while compensating specific biases of single methods due to an ensemble approach. Thereby, EFS can improve the prediction accuracy and interpretability in subsequent binary classification models. EFS can be downloaded as an R-package from CRAN or used via a web application at http://EFS.heiderlab.de.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27166803','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27166803"><span>A New Method for Determining Structure Ensemble: Application to a RNA Binding Di-Domain Protein.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Liu, Wei; Zhang, Jingfeng; Fan, Jing-Song; Tria, Giancarlo; Grüber, Gerhard; Yang, Daiwen</p> <p>2016-05-10</p> <p>Structure ensemble determination is the basis of understanding the structure-function relationship of a multidomain protein with weak domain-domain interactions. Paramagnetic relaxation enhancement has been proven a powerful tool in the study of structure ensembles, but there exist a number of challenges such as spin-label flexibility, domain dynamics, and overfitting. Here we propose a new (to our knowledge) method to describe structure ensembles using a minimal number of conformers. In this method, individual domains are considered rigid; the position of each spin-label conformer and the structure of each protein conformer are defined by three and six orthogonal parameters, respectively. First, the spin-label ensemble is determined by optimizing the positions and populations of spin-label conformers against intradomain paramagnetic relaxation enhancements with a genetic algorithm. Subsequently, the protein structure ensemble is optimized using a more efficient genetic algorithm-based approach and an overfitting indicator, both of which were established in this work. The method was validated using a reference ensemble with a set of conformers whose populations and structures are known. This method was also applied to study the structure ensemble of the tandem di-domain of a poly (U) binding protein. The determined ensemble was supported by small-angle x-ray scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation data. The ensemble obtained suggests an induced fit mechanism for recognition of target RNA by the protein. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG41A0126R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG41A0126R"><span>Long-time Dynamics of Stochastic Wave Breaking</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Restrepo, J. M.; Ramirez, J. M.; Deike, L.; Melville, K.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>A stochastic parametrization is proposed for the dynamics of wave breaking of progressive water waves. The model is shown to agree with transport estimates, derived from the Lagrangian path of fluid parcels. These trajectories are obtained numerically and are shown to agree well with theory in the non-breaking regime. Of special interest is the impact of wave breaking on transport, momentum exchanges and energy dissipation, as well as dispersion of trajectories. The proposed model, ensemble averaged to larger time scales, is compared to ensemble averages of the numerically generated parcel dynamics, and is then used to capture energy dissipation and path dispersion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH31B0224Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH31B0224Z"><span>Data Assimilation by Ensemble Kalman Filter during One-Dimensional Nonlinear Consolidation in Randomly Heterogeneous Highly Compressible Aquitards</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zapata Norberto, B.; Morales-Casique, E.; Herrera, G. S.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Severe land subsidence due to groundwater extraction may occur in multiaquifer systems where highly compressible aquitards are present. The highly compressible nature of the aquitards leads to nonlinear consolidation where the groundwater flow parameters are stress-dependent. The case is further complicated by the heterogeneity of the hydrogeologic and geotechnical properties of the aquitards. We explore the effect of realistic vertical heterogeneity of hydrogeologic and geotechnical parameters on the consolidation of highly compressible aquitards by means of 1-D Monte Carlo numerical simulations. 2000 realizations are generated for each of the following parameters: hydraulic conductivity (K), compression index (Cc) and void ratio (e). The correlation structure, the mean and the variance for each parameter were obtained from a literature review about field studies in the lacustrine sediments of Mexico City. The results indicate that among the parameters considered, random K has the largest effect on the ensemble average behavior of the system. Random K leads to the largest variance (and therefore largest uncertainty) of total settlement, groundwater flux and time to reach steady state conditions. We further propose a data assimilation scheme by means of ensemble Kalman filter to estimate the ensemble mean distribution of K, pore-pressure and total settlement. We consider the case where pore-pressure measurements are available at given time intervals. We test our approach by generating a 1-D realization of K with exponential spatial correlation, and solving the nonlinear flow and consolidation problem. These results are taken as our "true" solution. We take pore-pressure "measurements" at different times from this "true" solution. The ensemble Kalman filter method is then employed to estimate ensemble mean distribution of K, pore-pressure and total settlement based on the sequential assimilation of these pore-pressure measurements. The ensemble-mean estimates from this procedure closely approximate those from the "true" solution. This procedure can be easily extended to other random variables such as compression index and void ratio.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015FNL....1450033L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015FNL....1450033L"><span>Intelligent Ensemble Forecasting System of Stock Market Fluctuations Based on Symetric and Asymetric Wavelet Functions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lahmiri, Salim; Boukadoum, Mounir</p> <p>2015-08-01</p> <p>We present a new ensemble system for stock market returns prediction where continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is used to analyze return series and backpropagation neural networks (BPNNs) for processing CWT-based coefficients, determining the optimal ensemble weights, and providing final forecasts. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used for finding optimal weights and biases for each BPNN. To capture symmetry/asymmetry in the underlying data, three wavelet functions with different shapes are adopted. The proposed ensemble system was tested on three Asian stock markets: The Hang Seng, KOSPI, and Taiwan stock market data. Three statistical metrics were used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy; including, mean of absolute errors (MAE), root mean of squared errors (RMSE), and mean of absolute deviations (MADs). Experimental results showed that our proposed ensemble system outperformed the individual CWT-ANN models each with different wavelet function. In addition, the proposed ensemble system outperformed the conventional autoregressive moving average process. As a result, the proposed ensemble system is suitable to capture symmetry/asymmetry in financial data fluctuations for better prediction accuracy.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_14 --> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8141P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8141P"><span>Adaptive correction of ensemble forecasts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pelosi, Anna; Battista Chirico, Giovanni; Van den Bergh, Joris; Vannitsem, Stephane</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often suffer from both systematic and non-systematic errors. These are present in both deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and originate from various sources such as model error and subgrid variability. Statistical post-processing techniques can partly remove such errors, which is particularly important when NWP outputs concerning surface weather variables are employed for site specific applications. Many different post-processing techniques have been developed. For deterministic forecasts, adaptive methods such as the Kalman filter are often used, which sequentially post-process the forecasts by continuously updating the correction parameters as new ground observations become available. These methods are especially valuable when long training data sets do not exist. For ensemble forecasts, well-known techniques are ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and so-called "member-by-member" approaches (MBM). Here, we introduce a new adaptive post-processing technique for ensemble predictions. The proposed method is a sequential Kalman filtering technique that fully exploits the information content of the ensemble. One correction equation is retrieved and applied to all members, however the parameters of the regression equations are retrieved by exploiting the second order statistics of the forecast ensemble. We compare our new method with two other techniques: a simple method that makes use of a running bias correction of the ensemble mean, and an MBM post-processing approach that rescales the ensemble mean and spread, based on minimization of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We perform a verification study for the region of Campania in southern Italy. We use two years (2014-2015) of daily meteorological observations of 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind speed from 18 ground-based automatic weather stations distributed across the region, comparing them with the corresponding COSMO-LEPS ensemble forecasts. Deterministic verification scores (e.g., mean absolute error, bias) and probabilistic scores (e.g., CRPS) are used to evaluate the post-processing techniques. We conclude that the new adaptive method outperforms the simpler running bias-correction. The proposed adaptive method often outperforms the MBM method in removing bias. The MBM method has the advantage of correcting the ensemble spread, although it needs more training data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1544146','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1544146"><span>Relation between native ensembles and experimental structures of proteins</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Best, Robert B.; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; DePristo, Mark A.; Vendruscolo, Michele</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Different experimental structures of the same protein or of proteins with high sequence similarity contain many small variations. Here we construct ensembles of “high-sequence similarity Protein Data Bank” (HSP) structures and consider the extent to which such ensembles represent the structural heterogeneity of the native state in solution. We find that different NMR measurements probing structure and dynamics of given proteins in solution, including order parameters, scalar couplings, and residual dipolar couplings, are remarkably well reproduced by their respective high-sequence similarity Protein Data Bank ensembles; moreover, we show that the effects of uncertainties in structure determination are insufficient to explain the results. These results highlight the importance of accounting for native-state protein dynamics in making comparisons with ensemble-averaged experimental data and suggest that even a modest number of structures of a protein determined under different conditions, or with small variations in sequence, capture a representative subset of the true native-state ensemble. PMID:16829580</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.1940C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.1940C"><span>A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated probabilistic wind forecasts which will be invaluable in wind energy management. In brief, this method turns the ensemble forecasts into a calibrated predictive probability distribution. Each ensemble member is provided with a 'weight' determined by its relative predictive skill over a training period of around 30 days. Verification of data is carried out using observed wind data from operational wind farms. These are then compared to existing forecasts produced by ECMWF and Met Eireann in relation to skill scores. We are developing decision-making models to show the benefits achieved using the data produced by our wind energy forecasting system. An energy trading model will be developed, based on the rules currently used by the Single Electricity Market Operator for energy trading in Ireland. This trading model will illustrate the potential for financial savings by using the forecast data generated by this research.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT........23E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT........23E"><span>Exploring Model Error through Post-processing and an Ensemble Kalman Filter on Fire Weather Days</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Erickson, Michael J.</p> <p></p> <p>The proliferation of coupling atmospheric ensemble data to models in other related fields requires a priori knowledge of atmospheric ensemble biases specific to the desired application. In that spirit, this dissertation focuses on elucidating atmospheric ensemble model bias and error through a variety of different methods specific to fire weather days (FWDs) over the Northeast United States (NEUS). Other than a handful of studies that use models to predict fire indices for single fire seasons (Molders 2008, Simpson et al. 2014), an extensive exploration of model performance specific to FWDs has not been attempted. Two unique definitions for FWDs are proposed; one that uses pre-existing fire indices (FWD1) and another from a new statistical fire weather index (FWD2) relating fire occurrence and near-surface meteorological observations. Ensemble model verification reveals FWDs to have warmer (> 1 K), moister (~ 0.4 g kg-1) and less windy (~ 1 m s-1) biases than the climatological average for both FWD1 and FWD2. These biases are not restricted to the near surface but exist through the entirety of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Furthermore, post-processing methods are more effective when previous FWDs are incorporated into the statistical training, suggesting that model bias could be related to the synoptic flow pattern. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of data assimilation during a period of extensive FWDs in April 2012. Model biases develop rapidly on FWDs, consistent with the FWD1 and FWD2 verification. However, the EnKF is effective at removing most biases for temperature, wind speed and specific humidity. Potential sources of error in the parameterized physics of the PBL are explored by rerunning the EnKF with simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) for two relevant parameters within the ACM2 PBL scheme. SSPE helps to reduce the cool temperature bias near the surface on FWDs, with the variability in parameter estimates exhibiting some relationship to model bias for temperature. This suggests the potential for structural model error within the ACM2 PBL scheme and could lead toward the future development of improved PBL parameterizations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AdSR...14..227L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AdSR...14..227L"><span>Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120013786','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120013786"><span>Simulations of Spray Reacting Flows in a Single Element LDI Injector With and Without Invoking an Eulerian Scalar PDF Method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Liu, Nan-Suey</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>This paper presents the numerical simulations of the Jet-A spray reacting flow in a single element lean direct injection (LDI) injector by using the National Combustion Code (NCC) with and without invoking the Eulerian scalar probability density function (PDF) method. The flow field is calculated by using the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS and URANS) with nonlinear turbulence models, and when the scalar PDF method is invoked, the energy and compositions or species mass fractions are calculated by solving the equation of an ensemble averaged density-weighted fine-grained probability density function that is referred to here as the averaged probability density function (APDF). A nonlinear model for closing the convection term of the scalar APDF equation is used in the presented simulations and will be briefly described. Detailed comparisons between the results and available experimental data are carried out. Some positive findings of invoking the Eulerian scalar PDF method in both improving the simulation quality and reducing the computing cost are observed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711897H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711897H"><span>Exploring the calibration of a wind forecast ensemble for energy applications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Heppelmann, Tobias; Ben Bouallegue, Zied; Theis, Susanne</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>In the German research project EWeLiNE, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) are collaborating with three German Transmission System Operators (TSO) in order to provide the TSOs with improved probabilistic power forecasts. Probabilistic power forecasts are derived from probabilistic weather forecasts, themselves derived from ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Since the considered raw ensemble wind forecasts suffer from underdispersiveness and bias, calibration methods are developed for the correction of the model bias and the ensemble spread bias. The overall aim is to improve the ensemble forecasts such that the uncertainty of the possible weather deployment is depicted by the ensemble spread from the first forecast hours. Additionally, the ensemble members after calibration should remain physically consistent scenarios. We focus on probabilistic hourly wind forecasts with horizon of 21 h delivered by the convection permitting high-resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS which has become operational in 2012 at DWD. The ensemble consists of 20 ensemble members driven by four different global models. The model area includes whole Germany and parts of Central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical resolution of 50 model levels. For verification we use wind mast measurements around 100 m height that corresponds to the hub height of wind energy plants that belong to wind farms within the model area. Calibration of the ensemble forecasts can be performed by different statistical methods applied to the raw ensemble output. Here, we explore local bivariate Ensemble Model Output Statistics at individual sites and quantile regression with different predictors. Applying different methods, we already show an improvement of ensemble wind forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS for energy applications. In addition, an ensemble copula coupling approach transfers the time-dependencies of the raw ensemble to the calibrated ensemble. The calibrated wind forecasts are evaluated first with univariate probabilistic scores and additionally with diagnostics of wind ramps in order to assess the time-consistency of the calibrated ensemble members.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000PNAS...97..634N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000PNAS...97..634N"><span>Landscape approaches for determining the ensemble of folding transition states: Success and failure hinge on the degree of frustration</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nymeyer, Hugh; Socci, Nicholas D.; Onuchic, José Nelson</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>* Department of Physics, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0319; and § Center for Studies in Physics and Biology, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY 10021 Edited by R. Stephen Berry, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, and approved November 5, 1999 (received for review July 2, 1999) We present a method for determining structural properties of the ensemble of folding transition states from protein simulations. This method relies on thermodynamic quantities (free energies as a function of global reaction coordinates, such as the percentage of native contacts) and not on "kinetic" measurements (rates, transmission coefficients, complete trajectories); consequently, it requires fewer computational resources compared with otherapproaches, making it more suited to large and complex models. We explain the theoretical framework that underlies this method and use it to clarify the connection between the experimentally determined <IMG SRC="/math/12pt/normal/Phi.gif" ALIGN=BASELINE ALT="Phi "> value, a quantity determined by the ratio of rate and stability changes due to point mutations, and the average structure of the transition state ensemble. To determine the accuracy of this thermodynamic approach, we apply it to minimalist protein models and compare these results with the ones obtained by using the standard experimental procedure for determining <IMG SRC="/math/12pt/normal/Phi.gif" ALIGN=BASELINE ALT="Phi "> values. We show that the accuracy of both methods depends sensitively on the amount of frustration. In particular, the results are similar when applied to models with minimal amounts of frustration, characteristic of rapid-folding, single-domain globular proteins.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EPJST.226..725L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EPJST.226..725L"><span>Simulation of weak polyelectrolytes: a comparison between the constant pH and the reaction ensemble method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>The reaction ensemble and the constant pH method are well-known chemical equilibrium approaches to simulate protonation and deprotonation reactions in classical molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. In this article, we demonstrate the similarity between both methods under certain conditions. We perform molecular dynamics simulations of a weak polyelectrolyte in order to compare the titration curves obtained by both approaches. Our findings reveal a good agreement between the methods when the reaction ensemble is used to sweep the reaction constant. Pronounced differences between the reaction ensemble and the constant pH method can be observed for stronger acids and bases in terms of adaptive pH values. These deviations are due to the presence of explicit protons in the reaction ensemble method which induce a screening of electrostatic interactions between the charged titrable groups of the polyelectrolyte. The outcomes of our simulation hint to a better applicability of the reaction ensemble method for systems in confined geometries and titrable groups in polyelectrolytes with different pKa values.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27917394','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27917394"><span>A Deep Ensemble Learning Method for Monaural Speech Separation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Xiao-Lei; Wang, DeLiang</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>Monaural speech separation is a fundamental problem in robust speech processing. Recently, deep neural network (DNN)-based speech separation methods, which predict either clean speech or an ideal time-frequency mask, have demonstrated remarkable performance improvement. However, a single DNN with a given window length does not leverage contextual information sufficiently, and the differences between the two optimization objectives are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a deep ensemble method, named multicontext networks, to address monaural speech separation. The first multicontext network averages the outputs of multiple DNNs whose inputs employ different window lengths. The second multicontext network is a stack of multiple DNNs. Each DNN in a module of the stack takes the concatenation of original acoustic features and expansion of the soft output of the lower module as its input, and predicts the ratio mask of the target speaker; the DNNs in the same module employ different contexts. We have conducted extensive experiments with three speech corpora. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. We have also compared the two optimization objectives systematically and found that predicting the ideal time-frequency mask is more efficient in utilizing clean training speech, while predicting clean speech is less sensitive to SNR variations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20060015642','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20060015642"><span>Ensemble Data Mining Methods</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Oza, Nikunj C.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996JChPh.105.4211S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996JChPh.105.4211S"><span>Green-Kubo relations for the viscosity of biaxial nematic liquid crystals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sarman, Sten</p> <p>1996-09-01</p> <p>We derive Green-Kubo relations for the viscosities of a biaxial nematic liquid crystal. In this system there are seven shear viscosities, three twist viscosities, and three cross coupling coefficients between the antisymmetric strain rate and the symmetric traceless pressure tensor. According to the Onsager reciprocity relations these couplings are equal to the cross couplings between the symmetric traceless strain rate and the antisymmetric pressure. Our method is based on a comparison of the microscopic linear response generated by the SLLOD equations of motion for planar Couette flow (so named because of their close connection to the Doll's tensor Hamiltonian) and the macroscopic linear phenomenological relations between the pressure tensor and the strain rate. In order to obtain simple Green-Kubo relations we employ an equilibrium ensemble where the angular velocities of the directors are identically zero. This is achieved by adding constraint torques to the equations for the molecular angular accelerations. One finds that all the viscosity coefficients can be expressed as linear combinations of time correlation function integrals (TCFIs). This is much simpler compared to the expressions in the conventional canonical ensemble, where the viscosities are complicated rational functions of the TCFIs. The reason for this is, that in the constrained angular velocity ensemble, the thermodynamic forces are given external parameters whereas the thermodynamic fluxes are ensemble averages of phase functions. This is not the case in the canonical ensemble. The simplest way of obtaining numerical estimates of viscosity coefficients of a particular molecular model system is to evaluate these fluctuation relations by equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29205376','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29205376"><span>Ensemble gene function prediction database reveals genes important for complex I formation in Arabidopsis thaliana.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hansen, Bjoern Oest; Meyer, Etienne H; Ferrari, Camilla; Vaid, Neha; Movahedi, Sara; Vandepoele, Klaas; Nikoloski, Zoran; Mutwil, Marek</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>Recent advances in gene function prediction rely on ensemble approaches that integrate results from multiple inference methods to produce superior predictions. Yet, these developments remain largely unexplored in plants. We have explored and compared two methods to integrate 10 gene co-function networks for Arabidopsis thaliana and demonstrate how the integration of these networks produces more accurate gene function predictions for a larger fraction of genes with unknown function. These predictions were used to identify genes involved in mitochondrial complex I formation, and for five of them, we confirmed the predictions experimentally. The ensemble predictions are provided as a user-friendly online database, EnsembleNet. The methods presented here demonstrate that ensemble gene function prediction is a powerful method to boost prediction performance, whereas the EnsembleNet database provides a cutting-edge community tool to guide experimentalists. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18793021','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18793021"><span>Temporal correlation functions of concentration fluctuations: an anomalous case.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lubelski, Ariel; Klafter, Joseph</p> <p>2008-10-09</p> <p>We calculate, within the framework of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) model, multiparticle temporal correlation functions of concentration fluctuations (CCF) in systems that display anomalous subdiffusion. The subdiffusion stems from the nonstationary nature of the CTRW waiting times, which also lead to aging and ergodicity breaking. Due to aging, a system of diffusing particles tends to slow down as time progresses, and therefore, the temporal correlation functions strongly depend on the initial time of measurement. As a consequence, time averages of the CCF differ from ensemble averages, displaying therefore ergodicity breaking. We provide a simple example that demonstrates the difference between these two averages, a difference that might be amenable to experimental tests. We focus on the case of ensemble averaging and assume that the preparation time of the system coincides with the starting time of the measurement. Our analytical calculations are supported by computer simulations based on the CTRW model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H21D1482L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H21D1482L"><span>Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3408247','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3408247"><span>Discovering Free Energy Basins for Macromolecular Systems via Guided Multiscale Simulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Sereda, Yuriy V.; Singharoy, Abhishek B.; Jarrold, Martin F.; Ortoleva, Peter J.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>An approach for the automated discovery of low free energy states of macromolecular systems is presented. The method does not involve delineating the entire free energy landscape but proceeds in a sequential free energy minimizing state discovery, i.e., it first discovers one low free energy state and then automatically seeks a distinct neighboring one. These states and the associated ensembles of atomistic configurations are characterized by coarse-grained variables capturing the large-scale structure of the system. A key facet of our approach is the identification of such coarse-grained variables. Evolution of these variables is governed by Langevin dynamics driven by thermal-average forces and mediated by diffusivities, both of which are constructed by an ensemble of short molecular dynamics runs. In the present approach, the thermal-average forces are modified to account for the entropy changes following from our knowledge of the free energy basins already discovered. Such forces guide the system away from the known free energy minima, over free energy barriers, and to a new one. The theory is demonstrated for lactoferrin, known to have multiple energy-minimizing structures. The approach is validated using experimental structures and traditional molecular dynamics. The method can be generalized to enable the interpretation of nanocharacterization data (e.g., ion mobility – mass spectrometry, atomic force microscopy, chemical labeling, and nanopore measurements). PMID:22423635</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26ES...58a2019R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26ES...58a2019R"><span>Model Averaging for Predicting the Exposure to Aflatoxin B1 Using DNA Methylation in White Blood Cells of Infants</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rahardiantoro, S.; Sartono, B.; Kurnia, A.</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>In recent years, DNA methylation has been the special issue to reveal the pattern of a lot of human diseases. Huge amount of data would be the inescapable phenomenon in this case. In addition, some researchers interesting to take some predictions based on these huge data, especially using regression analysis. The classical approach would be failed to take the task. Model averaging by Ando and Li [1] could be an alternative approach to face this problem. This research applied the model averaging to get the best prediction in high dimension of data. In the practice, the case study by Vargas et al [3], data of exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and DNA methylation in white blood cells of infants in The Gambia, take the implementation of model averaging. The best ensemble model selected based on the minimum of MAPE, MAE, and MSE of predictions. The result is ensemble model by model averaging with number of predictors in model candidate is 15.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1015308','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1015308"><span>A Novel Data-Driven Learning Method for Radar Target Detection in Nonstationary Environments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>Classifier ensembles for changing environments,” in Multiple Classifier Systems, vol. 3077, F. Roli, J. Kittler and T. Windeatt, Eds. New York, NY...Dec. 2006, pp. 1113–1118. [21] J. Z. Kolter and M. A. Maloof, “Dynamic weighted majority: An ensemble method for drifting concepts,” J. Mach. Learn...Trans. Neural Netw., vol. 22, no. 10, pp. 1517–1531, Oct. 2011. [23] R. Polikar, “ Ensemble learning,” in Ensemble Machine Learning: Methods and</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29679837','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29679837"><span>Development of a stacked ensemble model for forecasting and analyzing daily average PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhai, Binxu; Chen, Jianguo</p> <p>2018-04-18</p> <p>A stacked ensemble model is developed for forecasting and analyzing the daily average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Beijing, China. Special feature extraction procedures, including those of simplification, polynomial, transformation and combination, are conducted before modeling to identify potentially significant features based on an exploratory data analysis. Stability feature selection and tree-based feature selection methods are applied to select important variables and evaluate the degrees of feature importance. Single models including LASSO, Adaboost, XGBoost and multi-layer perceptron optimized by the genetic algorithm (GA-MLP) are established in the level 0 space and are then integrated by support vector regression (SVR) in the level 1 space via stacked generalization. A feature importance analysis reveals that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations measured from the city of Zhangjiakou are taken as the most important elements of pollution factors for forecasting PM 2.5 concentrations. Local extreme wind speeds and maximal wind speeds are considered to extend the most effects of meteorological factors to the cross-regional transportation of contaminants. Pollutants found in the cities of Zhangjiakou and Chengde have a stronger impact on air quality in Beijing than other surrounding factors. Our model evaluation shows that the ensemble model generally performs better than a single nonlinear forecasting model when applied to new data with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.90 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 23.69μg/m 3 . For single pollutant grade recognition, the proposed model performs better when applied to days characterized by good air quality than when applied to days registering high levels of pollution. The overall classification accuracy level is 73.93%, with most misclassifications made among adjacent categories. The results demonstrate the interpretability and generalizability of the stacked ensemble model. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27387228','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27387228"><span>A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fleisher, David H; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E; Parker, Phillip S; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_15 --> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4881196','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4881196"><span>Knowledge-Based Methods To Train and Optimize Virtual Screening Ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Ensemble docking can be a successful virtual screening technique that addresses the innate conformational heterogeneity of macromolecular drug targets. Yet, lacking a method to identify a subset of conformational states that effectively segregates active and inactive small molecules, ensemble docking may result in the recommendation of a large number of false positives. Here, three knowledge-based methods that construct structural ensembles for virtual screening are presented. Each method selects ensembles by optimizing an objective function calculated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: either the area under the ROC curve (AUC) or a ROC enrichment factor (EF). As the number of receptor conformations, N, becomes large, the methods differ in their asymptotic scaling. Given a set of small molecules with known activities and a collection of target conformations, the most resource intense method is guaranteed to find the optimal ensemble but scales as O(2N). A recursive approximation to the optimal solution scales as O(N2), and a more severe approximation leads to a faster method that scales linearly, O(N). The techniques are generally applicable to any system, and we demonstrate their effectiveness on the androgen nuclear hormone receptor (AR), cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2), and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor δ (PPAR-δ) drug targets. Conformations that consisted of a crystal structure and molecular dynamics simulation cluster centroids were used to form AR and CDK2 ensembles. Multiple available crystal structures were used to form PPAR-δ ensembles. For each target, we show that the three methods perform similarly to one another on both the training and test sets. PMID:27097522</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMGC31A0728B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMGC31A0728B"><span>Comparing Planning Hydrologic Ensembles associated with Paleoclimate, Projected Climate, and blended Climate Information Sets</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brekke, L. D.; Prairie, J.; Pruitt, T.; Rajagopalan, B.; Woodhouse, C.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>Water resources adaptation planning under climate change involves making assumptions about probabilistic water supply conditions, which are linked to a given climate context (e.g., instrument records, paleoclimate indicators, projected climate data, or blend of these). Methods have been demonstrated to associate water supply assumptions with any of these climate information types. Additionally, demonstrations have been offered that represent these information types in a scenario-rich (ensemble) planning framework, either via ensembles (e.g., survey of many climate projections) or stochastic modeling (e.g., based on instrument records or paleoclimate indicators). If the planning goal involves using a hydrologic ensemble that jointly reflects paleoclimate (e.g., lower- frequency variations) and projected climate information (e.g., monthly to annual trends), methods are required to guide how these information types might be translated into water supply assumptions. However, even if such a method exists, there is lack of understanding on how such a hydrologic ensemble might differ from ensembles developed relative to paleoclimate or projected climate information alone. This research explores two questions: (1) how might paleoclimate and projected climate information be blended into an planning hydrologic ensemble, and (2) how does a planning hydrologic ensemble differ when associated with the individual climate information types (i.e. instrumental records, paleoclimate, projected climate, or blend of the latter two). Case study basins include the Gunnison River Basin in Colorado and the Missouri River Basin above Toston in Montana. Presentation will highlight ensemble development methods by information type, and comparison of ensemble results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4274230','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4274230"><span>Applying an Ensemble Classification Tree Approach to the Prediction of Completion of a 12-Step Facilitation Intervention with Stimulant Abusers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Doyle, Suzanne R.; Donovan, Dennis M.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Aims The purpose of this study was to explore the selection of predictor variables in the evaluation of drug treatment completion using an ensemble approach with classification trees. The basic methodology is reviewed and the subagging procedure of random subsampling is applied. Methods Among 234 individuals with stimulant use disorders randomized to a 12-Step facilitative intervention shown to increase stimulant use abstinence, 67.52% were classified as treatment completers. A total of 122 baseline variables were used to identify factors associated with completion. Findings The number of types of self-help activity involvement prior to treatment was the predominant predictor. Other effective predictors included better coping self-efficacy for substance use in high-risk situations, more days of prior meeting attendance, greater acceptance of the Disease model, higher confidence for not resuming use following discharge, lower ASI Drug and Alcohol composite scores, negative urine screens for cocaine or marijuana, and fewer employment problems. Conclusions The application of an ensemble subsampling regression tree method utilizes the fact that classification trees are unstable but, on average, produce an improved prediction of the completion of drug abuse treatment. The results support the notion there are early indicators of treatment completion that may allow for modification of approaches more tailored to fitting the needs of individuals and potentially provide more successful treatment engagement and improved outcomes. PMID:25134038</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28208482','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28208482"><span>Aging underdamped scaled Brownian motion: Ensemble- and time-averaged particle displacements, nonergodicity, and the failure of the overdamping approximation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Safdari, Hadiseh; Cherstvy, Andrey G; Chechkin, Aleksei V; Bodrova, Anna; Metzler, Ralf</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>We investigate both analytically and by computer simulations the ensemble- and time-averaged, nonergodic, and aging properties of massive particles diffusing in a medium with a time dependent diffusivity. We call this stochastic diffusion process the (aging) underdamped scaled Brownian motion (UDSBM). We demonstrate how the mean squared displacement (MSD) and the time-averaged MSD of UDSBM are affected by the inertial term in the Langevin equation, both at short, intermediate, and even long diffusion times. In particular, we quantify the ballistic regime for the MSD and the time-averaged MSD as well as the spread of individual time-averaged MSD trajectories. One of the main effects we observe is that, both for the MSD and the time-averaged MSD, for superdiffusive UDSBM the ballistic regime is much shorter than for ordinary Brownian motion. In contrast, for subdiffusive UDSBM, the ballistic region extends to much longer diffusion times. Therefore, particular care needs to be taken under what conditions the overdamped limit indeed provides a correct description, even in the long time limit. We also analyze to what extent ergodicity in the Boltzmann-Khinchin sense in this nonstationary system is broken, both for subdiffusive and superdiffusive UDSBM. Finally, the limiting case of ultraslow UDSBM is considered, with a mixed logarithmic and power-law dependence of the ensemble- and time-averaged MSDs of the particles. In the limit of strong aging, remarkably, the ordinary UDSBM and the ultraslow UDSBM behave similarly in the short time ballistic limit. The approaches developed here open ways for considering other stochastic processes under physically important conditions when a finite particle mass and aging in the system cannot be neglected.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhRvE..95a2120S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhRvE..95a2120S"><span>Aging underdamped scaled Brownian motion: Ensemble- and time-averaged particle displacements, nonergodicity, and the failure of the overdamping approximation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Safdari, Hadiseh; Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Bodrova, Anna; Metzler, Ralf</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>We investigate both analytically and by computer simulations the ensemble- and time-averaged, nonergodic, and aging properties of massive particles diffusing in a medium with a time dependent diffusivity. We call this stochastic diffusion process the (aging) underdamped scaled Brownian motion (UDSBM). We demonstrate how the mean squared displacement (MSD) and the time-averaged MSD of UDSBM are affected by the inertial term in the Langevin equation, both at short, intermediate, and even long diffusion times. In particular, we quantify the ballistic regime for the MSD and the time-averaged MSD as well as the spread of individual time-averaged MSD trajectories. One of the main effects we observe is that, both for the MSD and the time-averaged MSD, for superdiffusive UDSBM the ballistic regime is much shorter than for ordinary Brownian motion. In contrast, for subdiffusive UDSBM, the ballistic region extends to much longer diffusion times. Therefore, particular care needs to be taken under what conditions the overdamped limit indeed provides a correct description, even in the long time limit. We also analyze to what extent ergodicity in the Boltzmann-Khinchin sense in this nonstationary system is broken, both for subdiffusive and superdiffusive UDSBM. Finally, the limiting case of ultraslow UDSBM is considered, with a mixed logarithmic and power-law dependence of the ensemble- and time-averaged MSDs of the particles. In the limit of strong aging, remarkably, the ordinary UDSBM and the ultraslow UDSBM behave similarly in the short time ballistic limit. The approaches developed here open ways for considering other stochastic processes under physically important conditions when a finite particle mass and aging in the system cannot be neglected.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21362155-schur-polynomials-biorthogonal-random-matrix-ensembles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21362155-schur-polynomials-biorthogonal-random-matrix-ensembles"><span>Schur polynomials and biorthogonal random matrix ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Tierz, Miguel</p> <p></p> <p>The study of the average of Schur polynomials over a Stieltjes-Wigert ensemble has been carried out by Dolivet and Tierz [J. Math. Phys. 48, 023507 (2007); e-print arXiv:hep-th/0609167], where it was shown that it is equal to quantum dimensions. Using the same approach, we extend the result to the biorthogonal case. We also study, using the Littlewood-Richardson rule, some particular cases of the quantum dimension result. Finally, we show that the notion of Giambelli compatibility of Schur averages, introduced by Borodin et al. [Adv. Appl. Math. 37, 209 (2006); e-print arXiv:math-ph/0505021], also holds in the biorthogonal setting.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvE..91d2107S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvE..91d2107S"><span>Aging scaled Brownian motion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Safdari, Hadiseh; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Jafari, Gholamreza R.; Metzler, Ralf</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Scaled Brownian motion (SBM) is widely used to model anomalous diffusion of passive tracers in complex and biological systems. It is a highly nonstationary process governed by the Langevin equation for Brownian motion, however, with a power-law time dependence of the noise strength. Here we study the aging properties of SBM for both unconfined and confined motion. Specifically, we derive the ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacements and analyze their behavior in the regimes of weak, intermediate, and strong aging. A very rich behavior is revealed for confined aging SBM depending on different aging times and whether the process is sub- or superdiffusive. We demonstrate that the information on the aging factorizes with respect to the lag time and exhibits a functional form that is identical to the aging behavior of scale-free continuous time random walk processes. While SBM exhibits a disparity between ensemble and time averaged observables and is thus weakly nonergodic, strong aging is shown to effect a convergence of the ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacement. Finally, we derive the density of first passage times in the semi-infinite domain that features a crossover defined by the aging time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25974439','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25974439"><span>Aging scaled Brownian motion.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Safdari, Hadiseh; Chechkin, Aleksei V; Jafari, Gholamreza R; Metzler, Ralf</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Scaled Brownian motion (SBM) is widely used to model anomalous diffusion of passive tracers in complex and biological systems. It is a highly nonstationary process governed by the Langevin equation for Brownian motion, however, with a power-law time dependence of the noise strength. Here we study the aging properties of SBM for both unconfined and confined motion. Specifically, we derive the ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacements and analyze their behavior in the regimes of weak, intermediate, and strong aging. A very rich behavior is revealed for confined aging SBM depending on different aging times and whether the process is sub- or superdiffusive. We demonstrate that the information on the aging factorizes with respect to the lag time and exhibits a functional form that is identical to the aging behavior of scale-free continuous time random walk processes. While SBM exhibits a disparity between ensemble and time averaged observables and is thus weakly nonergodic, strong aging is shown to effect a convergence of the ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacement. Finally, we derive the density of first passage times in the semi-infinite domain that features a crossover defined by the aging time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H41H1542A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H41H1542A"><span>Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3202523','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3202523"><span>Improving ECG Classification Accuracy Using an Ensemble of Neural Network Modules</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Javadi, Mehrdad; Ebrahimpour, Reza; Sajedin, Atena; Faridi, Soheil; Zakernejad, Shokoufeh</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>This paper illustrates the use of a combined neural network model based on Stacked Generalization method for classification of electrocardiogram (ECG) beats. In conventional Stacked Generalization method, the combiner learns to map the base classifiers' outputs to the target data. We claim adding the input pattern to the base classifiers' outputs helps the combiner to obtain knowledge about the input space and as the result, performs better on the same task. Experimental results support our claim that the additional knowledge according to the input space, improves the performance of the proposed method which is called Modified Stacked Generalization. In particular, for classification of 14966 ECG beats that were not previously seen during training phase, the Modified Stacked Generalization method reduced the error rate for 12.41% in comparison with the best of ten popular classifier fusion methods including Max, Min, Average, Product, Majority Voting, Borda Count, Decision Templates, Weighted Averaging based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Stacked Generalization. PMID:22046232</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2016/5003/sir20165003.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2016/5003/sir20165003.pdf"><span>Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Moody, John A.</p> <p>2016-03-21</p> <p>Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an area-averaged peak runoff coefficient for the September 2013 rain storms in Boulder County, and the 8.6 millimeters per hour to be the rainfall intensity corresponding to a soil moisture threshold that controls the soil infiltration rate. Peak discharge estimates based on the sediment transport effects were generally less than the ensemble average and indicated that sediment transport may be a mechanism that limits velocities in these types of mountain streams such that the Froude number fluctuates about 1 suggesting that this type of floodflow can be approximated as critical flow.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22255211-quantitative-study-fluctuation-effects-fast-lattice-monte-carlo-simulations-compression-grafted-homopolymers','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22255211-quantitative-study-fluctuation-effects-fast-lattice-monte-carlo-simulations-compression-grafted-homopolymers"><span>Quantitative study of fluctuation effects by fast lattice Monte Carlo simulations: Compression of grafted homopolymers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Pengfei; Wang, Qiang, E-mail: q.wang@colostate.edu</p> <p>2014-01-28</p> <p>Using fast lattice Monte Carlo (FLMC) simulations [Q. Wang, Soft Matter 5, 4564 (2009)] and the corresponding lattice self-consistent field (LSCF) calculations, we studied a model system of grafted homopolymers, in both the brush and mushroom regimes, in an explicit solvent compressed by an impenetrable surface. Direct comparisons between FLMC and LSCF results, both of which are based on the same Hamiltonian (thus without any parameter-fitting between them), unambiguously and quantitatively reveal the fluctuations/correlations neglected by the latter. We studied both the structure (including the canonical-ensemble averages of the height and the mean-square end-to-end distances of grafted polymers) and thermodynamicsmore » (including the ensemble-averaged reduced energy density and the related internal energy per chain, the differences in the Helmholtz free energy and entropy per chain from the uncompressed state, and the pressure due to compression) of the system. In particular, we generalized the method for calculating pressure in lattice Monte Carlo simulations proposed by Dickman [J. Chem. Phys. 87, 2246 (1987)], and combined it with the Wang-Landau–Optimized Ensemble sampling [S. Trebst, D. A. Huse, and M. Troyer, Phys. Rev. E 70, 046701 (2004)] to efficiently and accurately calculate the free energy difference and the pressure due to compression. While we mainly examined the effects of the degree of compression, the distance between the nearest-neighbor grafting points, the reduced number of chains grafted at each grafting point, and the system fluctuations/correlations in an athermal solvent, the θ-solvent is also considered in some cases.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JCoPh.270...70K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JCoPh.270...70K"><span>Accelerating Monte Carlo molecular simulations by reweighting and reconstructing Markov chains: Extrapolation of canonical ensemble averages and second derivatives to different temperature and density conditions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kadoura, Ahmad; Sun, Shuyu; Salama, Amgad</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>Accurate determination of thermodynamic properties of petroleum reservoir fluids is of great interest to many applications, especially in petroleum engineering and chemical engineering. Molecular simulation has many appealing features, especially its requirement of fewer tuned parameters but yet better predicting capability; however it is well known that molecular simulation is very CPU expensive, as compared to equation of state approaches. We have recently introduced an efficient thermodynamically consistent technique to regenerate rapidly Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMCs) at different thermodynamic conditions from the existing data points that have been pre-computed with expensive classical simulation. This technique can speed up the simulation more than a million times, making the regenerated molecular simulation almost as fast as equation of state approaches. In this paper, this technique is first briefly reviewed and then numerically investigated in its capability of predicting ensemble averages of primary quantities at different neighboring thermodynamic conditions to the original simulated MCMCs. Moreover, this extrapolation technique is extended to predict second derivative properties (e.g. heat capacity and fluid compressibility). The method works by reweighting and reconstructing generated MCMCs in canonical ensemble for Lennard-Jones particles. In this paper, system's potential energy, pressure, isochoric heat capacity and isothermal compressibility along isochors, isotherms and paths of changing temperature and density from the original simulated points were extrapolated. Finally, an optimized set of Lennard-Jones parameters (ε, σ) for single site models were proposed for methane, nitrogen and carbon monoxide.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42684','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42684"><span>Unlocking the climate riddle in forested ecosystems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Brian F. Walters; Sara A. Goeking</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Climate information is often used as a predictor in ecological studies, where temporal averages are typically based on climate normals (30-year means) or seasonal averages. While ensemble projections of future climate forecast a higher global average annual temperature, they also predict increased climate variability. It remains to be seen whether forest ecosystems...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29284916','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29284916"><span>Comparison of Basic and Ensemble Data Mining Methods in Predicting 5-Year Survival of Colorectal Cancer Patients.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Kheirian, Sedigheh; Zali, Mohammad Reza</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common malignancies and cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Given the importance of predicting the survival of CRC patients and the growing use of data mining methods, this study aims to compare the performance of models for predicting 5-year survival of CRC patients using variety of basic and ensemble data mining methods. The CRC dataset from The Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases were used for prediction and comparative study of the base and ensemble data mining techniques. Feature selection methods were used to select predictor attributes for classification. The WEKA toolkit and MedCalc software were respectively utilized for creating and comparing the models. The obtained results showed that the predictive performance of developed models was altogether high (all greater than 90%). Overall, the performance of ensemble models was higher than that of basic classifiers and the best result achieved by ensemble voting model in terms of area under the ROC curve (AUC= 0.96). AUC Comparison of models showed that the ensemble voting method significantly outperformed all models except for two methods of Random Forest (RF) and Bayesian Network (BN) considered the overlapping 95% confidence intervals. This result may indicate high predictive power of these two methods along with ensemble voting for predicting 5-year survival of CRC patients.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhRvE..95c3305H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhRvE..95c3305H"><span>Decorrelation correction for nanoparticle tracking analysis of dilute polydisperse suspensions in bulk flow</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hartman, John; Kirby, Brian</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Nanoparticle tracking analysis, a multiprobe single particle tracking technique, is a widely used method to quickly determine the concentration and size distribution of colloidal particle suspensions. Many popular tools remove non-Brownian components of particle motion by subtracting the ensemble-average displacement at each time step, which is termed dedrifting. Though critical for accurate size measurements, dedrifting is shown here to introduce significant biasing error and can fundamentally limit the dynamic range of particle size that can be measured for dilute heterogeneous suspensions such as biological extracellular vesicles. We report a more accurate estimate of particle mean-square displacement, which we call decorrelation analysis, that accounts for correlations between individual and ensemble particle motion, which are spuriously introduced by dedrifting. Particle tracking simulation and experimental results show that this approach more accurately determines particle diameters for low-concentration polydisperse suspensions when compared with standard dedrifting techniques.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MSMSE..25e5013K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MSMSE..25e5013K"><span>Adaptively restrained molecular dynamics in LAMMPS</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kant Singh, Krishna; Redon, Stephane</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>Adaptively restrained molecular dynamics (ARMD) is a recently introduced particles simulation method that switches positional degrees of freedom on and off during simulation in order to speed up calculations. In the NVE ensemble, ARMD allows users to trade between precision and speed while, in the NVT ensemble, it makes it possible to compute statistical averages faster. Despite the conceptual simplicity of the approach, however, integrating it in existing molecular dynamics packages is non-trivial, in particular since implemented potentials should a priori be rewritten to take advantage of frozen particles and achieve a speed-up. In this paper, we present novel algorithms for integrating ARMD in LAMMPS, a popular multi-purpose molecular simulation package. In particular, we demonstrate how to enable ARMD in LAMMPS without having to re-implement all available force fields. The proposed algorithms are assessed on four different benchmarks, and show how they allow us to speed up simulations up to one order of magnitude.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003JApMe..42..308D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003JApMe..42..308D"><span>Evaluation of an Ensemble Dispersion Calculation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Draxler, Roland R.</p> <p>2003-02-01</p> <p>A Lagrangian transport and dispersion model was modified to generate multiple simulations from a single meteorological dataset. Each member of the simulation was computed by assuming a ±1-gridpoint shift in the horizontal direction and a ±250-m shift in the vertical direction of the particle position, with respect to the meteorological data. The configuration resulted in 27 ensemble members. Each member was assumed to have an equal probability. The model was tested by creating an ensemble of daily average air concentrations for 3 months at 75 measurement locations over the eastern half of the United States during the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX). Two generic graphical displays were developed to summarize the ensemble prediction and the resulting concentration probabilities for a specific event: a probability-exceed plot and a concentration-probability plot. Although a cumulative distribution of the ensemble probabilities compared favorably with the measurement data, the resulting distribution was not uniform. This result was attributed to release height sensitivity. The trajectory ensemble approach accounts for about 41%-47% of the variance in the measurement data. This residual uncertainty is caused by other model and data errors that are not included in the ensemble design.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29579536','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29579536"><span>Novel forecasting approaches using combination of machine learning and statistical models for flood susceptibility mapping.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Valavi, Roozbeh; Shahabi, Himan; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah</p> <p>2018-07-01</p> <p>In this research, eight individual machine learning and statistical models are implemented and compared, and based on their results, seven ensemble models for flood susceptibility assessment are introduced. The individual models included artificial neural networks, classification and regression trees, flexible discriminant analysis, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, boosted regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and maximum entropy, and the ensemble models were Ensemble Model committee averaging (EMca), Ensemble Model confidence interval Inferior (EMciInf), Ensemble Model confidence interval Superior (EMciSup), Ensemble Model to estimate the coefficient of variation (EMcv), Ensemble Model to estimate the mean (EMmean), Ensemble Model to estimate the median (EMmedian), and Ensemble Model based on weighted mean (EMwmean). The data set covered 201 flood events in the Haraz watershed (Mazandaran province in Iran) and 10,000 randomly selected non-occurrence points. Among the individual models, the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC), which showed the highest value, belonged to boosted regression trees (0.975) and the lowest value was recorded for generalized linear model (0.642). On the other hand, the proposed EMmedian resulted in the highest accuracy (0.976) among all models. In spite of the outstanding performance of some models, nevertheless, variability among the prediction of individual models was considerable. Therefore, to reduce uncertainty, creating more generalizable, more stable, and less sensitive models, ensemble forecasting approaches and in particular the EMmedian is recommended for flood susceptibility assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4233720','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4233720"><span>The interplay between cooperativity and diversity in model threshold ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cervera, Javier; Manzanares, José A.; Mafe, Salvador</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The interplay between cooperativity and diversity is crucial for biological ensembles because single molecule experiments show a significant degree of heterogeneity and also for artificial nanostructures because of the high individual variability characteristic of nanoscale units. We study the cross-effects between cooperativity and diversity in model threshold ensembles composed of individually different units that show a cooperative behaviour. The units are modelled as statistical distributions of parameters (the individual threshold potentials here) characterized by central and width distribution values. The simulations show that the interplay between cooperativity and diversity results in ensemble-averaged responses of interest for the understanding of electrical transduction in cell membranes, the experimental characterization of heterogeneous groups of biomolecules and the development of biologically inspired engineering designs with individually different building blocks. PMID:25142516</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_16 --> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20966385','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20966385"><span>Fourier descriptor analysis and unification of voice range profile contours: method and applications.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pabon, Peter; Ternström, Sten; Lamarche, Anick</p> <p>2011-06-01</p> <p>To describe a method for unified description, statistical modeling, and comparison of voice range profile (VRP) contours, even from diverse sources. A morphologic modeling technique, which is based on Fourier descriptors (FDs), is applied to the VRP contour. The technique, which essentially involves resampling of the curve of the contour, is assessed and also is compared to density-based VRP averaging methods that use the overlap count. VRP contours can be usefully described and compared using FDs. The method also permits the visualization of the local covariation along the contour average. For example, the FD-based analysis shows that the population variance for ensembles of VRP contours is usually smallest at the upper left part of the VRP. To illustrate the method's advantages and possible further application, graphs are given that compare the averaged contours from different authors and recording devices--for normal, trained, and untrained male and female voices as well as for child voices. The proposed technique allows any VRP shape to be brought to the same uniform base. On this uniform base, VRP contours or contour elements coming from a variety of sources may be placed within the same graph for comparison and for statistical analysis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JHyd..554..233L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JHyd..554..233L"><span>Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For peak values taking flood forecasts from each individual member into account is more appropriate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123.3443T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123.3443T"><span>A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Taniguchi, Kenji</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3226070','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3226070"><span>A Statistical Description of Neural Ensemble Dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Long, John D.; Carmena, Jose M.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>The growing use of multi-channel neural recording techniques in behaving animals has produced rich datasets that hold immense potential for advancing our understanding of how the brain mediates behavior. One limitation of these techniques is they do not provide important information about the underlying anatomical connections among the recorded neurons within an ensemble. Inferring these connections is often intractable because the set of possible interactions grows exponentially with ensemble size. This is a fundamental challenge one confronts when interpreting these data. Unfortunately, the combination of expert knowledge and ensemble data is often insufficient for selecting a unique model of these interactions. Our approach shifts away from modeling the network diagram of the ensemble toward analyzing changes in the dynamics of the ensemble as they relate to behavior. Our contribution consists of adapting techniques from signal processing and Bayesian statistics to track the dynamics of ensemble data on time-scales comparable with behavior. We employ a Bayesian estimator to weigh prior information against the available ensemble data, and use an adaptive quantization technique to aggregate poorly estimated regions of the ensemble data space. Importantly, our method is capable of detecting changes in both the magnitude and structure of correlations among neurons missed by firing rate metrics. We show that this method is scalable across a wide range of time-scales and ensemble sizes. Lastly, the performance of this method on both simulated and real ensemble data is used to demonstrate its utility. PMID:22319486</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27238760','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27238760"><span>Ensemble framework based real-time respiratory motion prediction for adaptive radiotherapy applications.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tatinati, Sivanagaraja; Nazarpour, Kianoush; Tech Ang, Wei; Veluvolu, Kalyana C</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Successful treatment of tumors with motion-adaptive radiotherapy requires accurate prediction of respiratory motion, ideally with a prediction horizon larger than the latency in radiotherapy system. Accurate prediction of respiratory motion is however a non-trivial task due to the presence of irregularities and intra-trace variabilities, such as baseline drift and temporal changes in fundamental frequency pattern. In this paper, to enhance the accuracy of the respiratory motion prediction, we propose a stacked regression ensemble framework that integrates heterogeneous respiratory motion prediction algorithms. We further address two crucial issues for developing a successful ensemble framework: (1) selection of appropriate prediction methods to ensemble (level-0 methods) among the best existing prediction methods; and (2) finding a suitable generalization approach that can successfully exploit the relative advantages of the chosen level-0 methods. The efficacy of the developed ensemble framework is assessed with real respiratory motion traces acquired from 31 patients undergoing treatment. Results show that the developed ensemble framework improves the prediction performance significantly compared to the best existing methods. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29564429','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29564429"><span>Cell-cell bioelectrical interactions and local heterogeneities in genetic networks: a model for the stabilization of single-cell states and multicellular oscillations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cervera, Javier; Manzanares, José A; Mafe, Salvador</p> <p>2018-04-04</p> <p>Genetic networks operate in the presence of local heterogeneities in single-cell transcription and translation rates. Bioelectrical networks and spatio-temporal maps of cell electric potentials can influence multicellular ensembles. Could cell-cell bioelectrical interactions mediated by intercellular gap junctions contribute to the stabilization of multicellular states against local genetic heterogeneities? We theoretically analyze this question on the basis of two well-established experimental facts: (i) the membrane potential is a reliable read-out of the single-cell electrical state and (ii) when the cells are coupled together, their individual cell potentials can be influenced by ensemble-averaged electrical potentials. We propose a minimal biophysical model for the coupling between genetic and bioelectrical networks that associates the local changes occurring in the transcription and translation rates of an ion channel protein with abnormally low (depolarized) cell potentials. We then analyze the conditions under which the depolarization of a small region (patch) in a multicellular ensemble can be reverted by its bioelectrical coupling with the (normally polarized) neighboring cells. We show also that the coupling between genetic and bioelectric networks of non-excitable cells, modulated by average electric potentials at the multicellular ensemble level, can produce oscillatory phenomena. The simulations show the importance of single-cell potentials characteristic of polarized and depolarized states, the relative sizes of the abnormally polarized patch and the rest of the normally polarized ensemble, and intercellular coupling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC41D0850B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC41D0850B"><span>A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19890005750','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19890005750"><span>Determination of longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives using flight data from an icing research aircraft</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Ranaudo, R. J.; Batterson, J. G.; Reehorst, A. L.; Bond, T. H.; Omara, T. M.</p> <p>1989-01-01</p> <p>A flight test was performed with the NASA Lewis Research Center's DH-6 icing research aircraft. The purpose was to employ a flight test procedure and data analysis method, to determine the accuracy with which the effects of ice on aircraft stability and control could be measured. For simplicity, flight testing was restricted to the short period longitudinal mode. Two flights were flown in a clean (baseline) configuration, and two flights were flown with simulated horizontal tail ice. Forty-five repeat doublet maneuvers were performed in each of four test configurations, at a given trim speed, to determine the ensemble variation of the estimated stability and control derivatives. Additional maneuvers were also performed in each configuration, to determine the variation in the longitudinal derivative estimates over a wide range of trim speeds. Stability and control derivatives were estimated by a Modified Stepwise Regression (MSR) technique. A measure of the confidence in the derivative estimates was obtained by comparing the standard error for the ensemble of repeat maneuvers, to the average of the estimated standard errors predicted by the MSR program. A multiplicative relationship was determined between the ensemble standard error, and the averaged program standard errors. In addition, a 95 percent confidence interval analysis was performed for the elevator effectiveness estimates, C sub m sub delta e. This analysis identified the speed range where changes in C sub m sub delta e could be attributed to icing effects. The magnitude of icing effects on the derivative estimates were strongly dependent on flight speed and aircraft wing flap configuration. With wing flaps up, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at lower speeds corresponding to that configuration. With wing flaps extended to 10 degrees, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at the higher corresponding speeds. The effects of icing on the changes in longitudinal stability and control derivatives were adequately determined by the flight test procedure and the MSR analysis method discussed herein.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhRvE..83e6216B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhRvE..83e6216B"><span>Fidelity decay in interacting two-level boson systems: Freezing and revivals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Benet, Luis; Hernández-Quiroz, Saúl; Seligman, Thomas H.</p> <p>2011-05-01</p> <p>We study the fidelity decay in the k-body embedded ensembles of random matrices for bosons distributed in two single-particle states, considering the reference or unperturbed Hamiltonian as the one-body terms and the diagonal part of the k-body embedded ensemble of random matrices and the perturbation as the residual off-diagonal part of the interaction. We calculate the ensemble-averaged fidelity with respect to an initial random state within linear response theory to second order on the perturbation strength and demonstrate that it displays the freeze of the fidelity. During the freeze, the average fidelity exhibits periodic revivals at integer values of the Heisenberg time tH. By selecting specific k-body terms of the residual interaction, we find that the periodicity of the revivals during the freeze of fidelity is an integer fraction of tH, thus relating the period of the revivals with the range of the interaction k of the perturbing terms. Numerical calculations confirm the analytical results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMPP41C1527T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMPP41C1527T"><span>High northern latitude temperature extremes, 1400-1999</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tingley, M. P.; Huybers, P.; Hughen, K. A.</p> <p>2009-12-01</p> <p>There is often an interest in determining which interval features the most extreme value of a reconstructed climate field, such as the warmest year or decade in a temperature reconstruction. Previous approaches to this type of question have not fully accounted for the spatial and temporal covariance in the climate field when assessing the significance of extreme values. Here we present results from applying BARSAT, a new, Bayesian approach to reconstructing climate fields, to a 600 year multiproxy temperature data set that covers land areas between 45N and 85N. The end result of the analysis is an ensemble of spatially and temporally complete realizations of the temperature field, each of which is consistent with the observations and the estimated values of the parameters that define the assumed spatial and temporal covariance functions. In terms of the spatial average temperature, 1990-1999 was the warmest decade in the 1400-1999 interval in each of 2000 ensemble members, while 1995 was the warmest year in 98% of the ensemble members. A similar analysis at each node of a regular 5 degree grid gives insight into the spatial distribution of warm temperatures, and reveals that 1995 was anomalously warm in Eurasia, whereas 1998 featured extreme warmth in North America. In 70% of the ensemble members, 1601 featured the coldest spatial average, indicating that the eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru in 1600 (with a volcanic explosivity index of 6) had a major cooling impact on the high northern latitudes. Repeating this analysis at each node reveals the varying impacts of major volcanic eruptions on the distribution of extreme cooling. Finally, we use the ensemble to investigate extremes in the time evolution of centennial temperature trends, and find that in more than half the ensemble members, the greatest rate of change in the spatial mean time series was a cooling centered at 1600. The largest rate of centennial scale warming, however, occurred in the 20th Century in more than 98% of the ensemble members.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19970040261&hterms=Time+Series+Design&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DTime%2BSeries%2BDesign','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19970040261&hterms=Time+Series+Design&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DTime%2BSeries%2BDesign"><span>Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Hailperin, M.</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19940006497&hterms=Petit&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DPetit','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19940006497&hterms=Petit&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DPetit"><span>An ensemble pulsar time</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Petit, Gerard; Thomas, Claudine; Tavella, Patrizia</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>Millisecond pulsars are galactic objects that exhibit a very stable spinning period. Several tens of these celestial clocks have now been discovered, which opens the possibility that an average time scale may be deduced through a long-term stability algorithm. Such an ensemble average makes it possible to reduce the level of the instabilities originating from the pulsars or from other sources of noise, which are unknown but independent. The basis for such an algorithm is presented and applied to real pulsar data. It is shown that pulsar time could shortly become more stable than the present atomic time, for averaging times of a few years. Pulsar time can also be used as a flywheel to maintain the accuracy of atomic time in case of temporary failure of the primary standards, or to transfer the improved accuracy of future standards back to the present.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24163333','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24163333"><span>Hierarchical encoding makes individuals in a group seem more attractive.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Walker, Drew; Vul, Edward</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>In the research reported here, we found evidence of the cheerleader effect-people seem more attractive in a group than in isolation. We propose that this effect arises via an interplay of three cognitive phenomena: (a) The visual system automatically computes ensemble representations of faces presented in a group, (b) individual members of the group are biased toward this ensemble average, and (c) average faces are attractive. Taken together, these phenomena suggest that individual faces will seem more attractive when presented in a group because they will appear more similar to the average group face, which is more attractive than group members' individual faces. We tested this hypothesis in five experiments in which subjects rated the attractiveness of faces presented either alone or in a group with the same gender. Our results were consistent with the cheerleader effect.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPIE10341E..1ID','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPIE10341E..1ID"><span>Active classifier selection for RGB-D object categorization using a Markov random field ensemble method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Durner, Maximilian; Márton, Zoltán.; Hillenbrand, Ulrich; Ali, Haider; Kleinsteuber, Martin</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>In this work, a new ensemble method for the task of category recognition in different environments is presented. The focus is on service robotic perception in an open environment, where the robot's task is to recognize previously unseen objects of predefined categories, based on training on a public dataset. We propose an ensemble learning approach to be able to flexibly combine complementary sources of information (different state-of-the-art descriptors computed on color and depth images), based on a Markov Random Field (MRF). By exploiting its specific characteristics, the MRF ensemble method can also be executed as a Dynamic Classifier Selection (DCS) system. In the experiments, the committee- and topology-dependent performance boost of our ensemble is shown. Despite reduced computational costs and using less information, our strategy performs on the same level as common ensemble approaches. Finally, the impact of large differences between datasets is analyzed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29738581','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29738581"><span>Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fodor, Nándor; Foskolos, Andreas; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Moorby, Jon M; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4553757','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4553757"><span>Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature. PMID:26261335</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26261335','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26261335"><span>Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T</p> <p>2015-08-25</p> <p>The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4701251','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4701251"><span>A Cutting Pattern Recognition Method for Shearers Based on Improved Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and a Probabilistic Neural Network</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Xu, Jing; Wang, Zhongbin; Tan, Chao; Si, Lei; Liu, Xinhua</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>In order to guarantee the stable operation of shearers and promote construction of an automatic coal mining working face, an online cutting pattern recognition method with high accuracy and speed based on Improved Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (IEEMD) and Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) is proposed. An industrial microphone is installed on the shearer and the cutting sound is collected as the recognition criterion to overcome the disadvantages of giant size, contact measurement and low identification rate of traditional detectors. To avoid end-point effects and get rid of undesirable intrinsic mode function (IMF) components in the initial signal, IEEMD is conducted on the sound. The end-point continuation based on the practical storage data is performed first to overcome the end-point effect. Next the average correlation coefficient, which is calculated by the correlation of the first IMF with others, is introduced to select essential IMFs. Then the energy and standard deviation of the reminder IMFs are extracted as features and PNN is applied to classify the cutting patterns. Finally, a simulation example, with an accuracy of 92.67%, and an industrial application prove the efficiency and correctness of the proposed method. PMID:26528985</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4623768','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4623768"><span>Systemic Risk Analysis on Reconstructed Economic and Financial Networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cimini, Giulio; Squartini, Tiziano; Garlaschelli, Diego; Gabrielli, Andrea</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling real-world complex systems of societal relevance: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information that can be accessed and, as a consequence, the possibility of correctly estimating the resilience of these systems to events such as financial shocks, crises and cascade failures. Here we present an innovative method to reconstruct the structure of such partially-accessible systems, based on the knowledge of intrinsic node-specific properties and of the number of connections of only a limited subset of nodes. This information is used to calibrate an inference procedure based on fundamental concepts derived from statistical physics, which allows to generate ensembles of directed weighted networks intended to represent the real system—so that the real network properties can be estimated as their average values within the ensemble. We test the method both on synthetic and empirical networks, focusing on the properties that are commonly used to measure systemic risk. Indeed, the method shows a remarkable robustness with respect to the limitedness of the information available, thus representing a valuable tool for gaining insights on privacy-protected economic and financial systems. PMID:26507849</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatSR...515758C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatSR...515758C"><span>Systemic Risk Analysis on Reconstructed Economic and Financial Networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cimini, Giulio; Squartini, Tiziano; Garlaschelli, Diego; Gabrielli, Andrea</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling real-world complex systems of societal relevance: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information that can be accessed and, as a consequence, the possibility of correctly estimating the resilience of these systems to events such as financial shocks, crises and cascade failures. Here we present an innovative method to reconstruct the structure of such partially-accessible systems, based on the knowledge of intrinsic node-specific properties and of the number of connections of only a limited subset of nodes. This information is used to calibrate an inference procedure based on fundamental concepts derived from statistical physics, which allows to generate ensembles of directed weighted networks intended to represent the real system—so that the real network properties can be estimated as their average values within the ensemble. We test the method both on synthetic and empirical networks, focusing on the properties that are commonly used to measure systemic risk. Indeed, the method shows a remarkable robustness with respect to the limitedness of the information available, thus representing a valuable tool for gaining insights on privacy-protected economic and financial systems.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_17 --> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..MARX41007T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..MARX41007T"><span>Mapping the temperature-dependent conformational landscapes of the dynamic enzymes cyclophilin A and urease</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Thorne, Robert; Keedy, Daniel; Warkentin, Matthew; Fraser, James; Moreau, David; Atakisi, Hakan; Rau, Peter</p> <p></p> <p>Proteins populate complex, temperature-dependent ensembles of conformations that enable their function. Yet in X-ray crystallographic studies, roughly 98% of structures have been determined at 100 K, and most refined to only a single conformation. A combination of experimental methods enabled by studies of ice formation and computational methods for mining low-density features in electron density maps have been applied to determine the evolution of the conformational landscapes of the enzymes cyclophilin A and urease between 300 K and 100 K. Minority conformations of most side chains depopulate on cooling from 300 to ~200 K, below which subsequent conformational evolution is quenched. The characteristic temperatures for this depopulation are highly heterogeneous throughout each enzyme. The temperature-dependent ensemble of the active site flap in urease has also been mapped. These all-atom, site-resolved measurements and analyses rule out one interpretation of the protein-solvent glass transition, and give an alternative interpretation of a dynamical transition identified in site-averaged experiments. They demonstrate a powerful approach to structural characterization of the dynamic underpinnings of protein function. Supported by NSF MCB-1330685.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018InPhT..88...57P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018InPhT..88...57P"><span>Crack detection in oak flooring lamellae using ultrasound-excited thermography</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pahlberg, Tobias; Thurley, Matthew; Popovic, Djordje; Hagman, Olle</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Today, a large number of people are manually grading and detecting defects in wooden lamellae in the parquet flooring industry. This paper investigates the possibility of using the ensemble methods random forests and boosting to automatically detect cracks using ultrasound-excited thermography and a variety of predictor variables. When friction occurs in thin cracks, they become warm and thus visible to a thermographic camera. Several image processing techniques have been used to suppress the noise and enhance probable cracks in the images. The most successful predictor variables captured the upper part of the heat distribution, such as the maximum temperature, kurtosis and percentile values 92-100 of the edge pixels. The texture in the images was captured by Completed Local Binary Pattern histograms and cracks were also segmented by background suppression and thresholding. The classification accuracy was significantly improved from previous research through added image processing, introduction of more predictors, and by using automated machine learning. The best ensemble methods reach an average classification accuracy of 0.8, which is very close to the authors' own manual attempt at separating the images (0.83).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.tmp..152W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.tmp..152W"><span>Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wu, Yenan; Zhong, Ping-an; Xu, Bin; Zhu, Feilin; Fu, Jisi</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960-2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001-2010) and the predicting period (2011-2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhRvA..86e2324H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhRvA..86e2324H"><span>Ensembles of physical states and random quantum circuits on graphs</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hamma, Alioscia; Santra, Siddhartha; Zanardi, Paolo</p> <p>2012-11-01</p> <p>In this paper we continue and extend the investigations of the ensembles of random physical states introduced in Hamma [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.109.040502 109, 040502 (2012)]. These ensembles are constructed by finite-length random quantum circuits (RQC) acting on the (hyper)edges of an underlying (hyper)graph structure. The latter encodes for the locality structure associated with finite-time quantum evolutions generated by physical, i.e., local, Hamiltonians. Our goal is to analyze physical properties of typical states in these ensembles; in particular here we focus on proxies of quantum entanglement as purity and α-Renyi entropies. The problem is formulated in terms of matrix elements of superoperators which depend on the graph structure, choice of probability measure over the local unitaries, and circuit length. In the α=2 case these superoperators act on a restricted multiqubit space generated by permutation operators associated to the subsets of vertices of the graph. For permutationally invariant interactions the dynamics can be further restricted to an exponentially smaller subspace. We consider different families of RQCs and study their typical entanglement properties for finite time as well as their asymptotic behavior. We find that area law holds in average and that the volume law is a typical property (that is, it holds in average and the fluctuations around the average are vanishing for the large system) of physical states. The area law arises when the evolution time is O(1) with respect to the size L of the system, while the volume law arises as is typical when the evolution time scales like O(L).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3996711','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3996711"><span>The Dropout Learning Algorithm</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Baldi, Pierre; Sadowski, Peter</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Dropout is a recently introduced algorithm for training neural network by randomly dropping units during training to prevent their co-adaptation. A mathematical analysis of some of the static and dynamic properties of dropout is provided using Bernoulli gating variables, general enough to accommodate dropout on units or connections, and with variable rates. The framework allows a complete analysis of the ensemble averaging properties of dropout in linear networks, which is useful to understand the non-linear case. The ensemble averaging properties of dropout in non-linear logistic networks result from three fundamental equations: (1) the approximation of the expectations of logistic functions by normalized geometric means, for which bounds and estimates are derived; (2) the algebraic equality between normalized geometric means of logistic functions with the logistic of the means, which mathematically characterizes logistic functions; and (3) the linearity of the means with respect to sums, as well as products of independent variables. The results are also extended to other classes of transfer functions, including rectified linear functions. Approximation errors tend to cancel each other and do not accumulate. Dropout can also be connected to stochastic neurons and used to predict firing rates, and to backpropagation by viewing the backward propagation as ensemble averaging in a dropout linear network. Moreover, the convergence properties of dropout can be understood in terms of stochastic gradient descent. Finally, for the regularization properties of dropout, the expectation of the dropout gradient is the gradient of the corresponding approximation ensemble, regularized by an adaptive weight decay term with a propensity for self-consistent variance minimization and sparse representations. PMID:24771879</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMIN21D0065T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMIN21D0065T"><span>The NASA Reanalysis Ensemble Service - Advanced Capabilities for Integrated Reanalysis Access and Intercomparison</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>NASA's efforts to advance climate analytics-as-a-service are making new capabilities available to the research community: (1) A full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) comprising monthly means data from multiple reanalysis data sets, accessible through an enhanced set of extraction, analytic, arithmetic, and intercomparison operations. The operations are made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib; (2) A cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables. This near real-time capability enables advanced technologies like Spark and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files; and (3) A WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation systems such as ESGF. The Reanalysis Ensemble Service includes the following: - New API that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services with sample queries - A Docker-ready RES application to deploy across platforms - Extended capabilities that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, standard deviation, and ensemble averages - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses including basic sub-setting and arithmetic operations (e.g., avg, sum, max, min, var, count, anomaly) - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset in addition to, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR, JMA JRA-55 and NOAA/ESRL 20CR… - A Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism designed for client use cases that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive scenarios and personalized project management - Supporting analytic services for NASA GMAO Forward Processing datasets - Basic uncertainty quantification services that combine heterogeneous ensemble products with comparative observational products (e.g., reanalysis, observational, visualization) - The ability to compute and visualize multiple reanalysis for ease of inter-comparisons - Automated tools to retrieve and prepare data collections for analytic processing</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010APS..SES.CA001W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010APS..SES.CA001W"><span>Observing the conformation of individual SNARE proteins inside live cells</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Weninger, Keith</p> <p>2010-10-01</p> <p>Protein conformational dynamics are directly linked to function in many instances. Within living cells, protein dynamics are rarely synchronized so observing ensemble-averaged behaviors can hide details of signaling pathways. Here we present an approach using single molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) to observe the conformation of individual SNARE proteins as they fold to enter the SNARE complex in living cells. Proteins were recombinantly expressed, labeled with small-molecule fluorescent dyes and microinjected for in vivo imaging and tracking using total internal reflection microscopy. Observing single molecules avoids the difficulties of averaging over unsynchronized ensembles. Our approach is easily generalized to a wide variety of proteins in many cellular signaling pathways.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27991626','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27991626"><span>Impact of distributions on the archetypes and prototypes in heterogeneous nanoparticle ensembles.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fernandez, Michael; Wilson, Hugh F; Barnard, Amanda S</p> <p>2017-01-05</p> <p>The magnitude and complexity of the structural and functional data available on nanomaterials requires data analytics, statistical analysis and information technology to drive discovery. We demonstrate that multivariate statistical analysis can recognise the sets of truly significant nanostructures and their most relevant properties in heterogeneous ensembles with different probability distributions. The prototypical and archetypal nanostructures of five virtual ensembles of Si quantum dots (SiQDs) with Boltzmann, frequency, normal, Poisson and random distributions are identified using clustering and archetypal analysis, where we find that their diversity is defined by size and shape, regardless of the type of distribution. At the complex hull of the SiQD ensembles, simple configuration archetypes can efficiently describe a large number of SiQDs, whereas more complex shapes are needed to represent the average ordering of the ensembles. This approach provides a route towards the characterisation of computationally intractable virtual nanomaterial spaces, which can convert big data into smart data, and significantly reduce the workload to simulate experimentally relevant virtual samples.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49..753T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49..753T"><span>Intercomparison and validation of the mixed layer depth fields of global ocean syntheses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Kuragano, Tsurane; Kamachi, Masafumi; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Masuda, Shuhei; Sato, Kanako; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Hernandez, Fabrice; Ferry, Nicolas; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Martin, Matthew J.; Peterson, K. Andrew; Good, Simon A.; Valdivieso, Maria; Haines, Keith; Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Köhl, Armin; Zuo, Hao; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Yin, Yonghong; Shi, Li; Alves, Oscar; Smith, Gregory; Chang, You-Soon; Vernieres, Guillaume; Wang, Xiaochun; Forget, Gael; Heimbach, Patrick; Wang, Ou; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>Intercomparison and evaluation of the global ocean surface mixed layer depth (MLD) fields estimated from a suite of major ocean syntheses are conducted. Compared with the reference MLDs calculated from individual profiles, MLDs calculated from monthly mean and gridded profiles show negative biases of 10-20 m in early spring related to the re-stratification process of relatively deep mixed layers. Vertical resolution of profiles also influences the MLD estimation. MLDs are underestimated by approximately 5-7 (14-16) m with the vertical resolution of 25 (50) m when the criterion of potential density exceeding the 10-m value by 0.03 kg m-3 is used for the MLD estimation. Using the larger criterion (0.125 kg m-3) generally reduces the underestimations. In addition, positive biases greater than 100 m are found in wintertime subpolar regions when MLD criteria based on temperature are used. Biases of the reanalyses are due to both model errors and errors related to differences between the assimilation methods. The result shows that these errors are partially cancelled out through the ensemble averaging. Moreover, the bias in the ensemble mean field of the reanalyses is smaller than in the observation-only analyses. This is largely attributed to comparably higher resolutions of the reanalyses. The robust reproduction of both the seasonal cycle and interannual variability by the ensemble mean of the reanalyses indicates a great potential of the ensemble mean MLD field for investigating and monitoring upper ocean processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28185571','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28185571"><span>HIPPI: highly accurate protein family classification with ensembles of HMMs.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nguyen, Nam-Phuong; Nute, Michael; Mirarab, Siavash; Warnow, Tandy</p> <p>2016-11-11</p> <p>Given a new biological sequence, detecting membership in a known family is a basic step in many bioinformatics analyses, with applications to protein structure and function prediction and metagenomic taxon identification and abundance profiling, among others. Yet family identification of sequences that are distantly related to sequences in public databases or that are fragmentary remains one of the more difficult analytical problems in bioinformatics. We present a new technique for family identification called HIPPI (Hierarchical Profile Hidden Markov Models for Protein family Identification). HIPPI uses a novel technique to represent a multiple sequence alignment for a given protein family or superfamily by an ensemble of profile hidden Markov models computed using HMMER. An evaluation of HIPPI on the Pfam database shows that HIPPI has better overall precision and recall than blastp, HMMER, and pipelines based on HHsearch, and maintains good accuracy even for fragmentary query sequences and for protein families with low average pairwise sequence identity, both conditions where other methods degrade in accuracy. HIPPI provides accurate protein family identification and is robust to difficult model conditions. Our results, combined with observations from previous studies, show that ensembles of profile Hidden Markov models can better represent multiple sequence alignments than a single profile Hidden Markov model, and thus can improve downstream analyses for various bioinformatic tasks. Further research is needed to determine the best practices for building the ensemble of profile Hidden Markov models. HIPPI is available on GitHub at https://github.com/smirarab/sepp .</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JHyd..539..345Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JHyd..539..345Y"><span>Improving the accuracy of flood forecasting with transpositions of ensemble NWP rainfall fields considering orographic effects</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yu, Wansik; Nakakita, Eiichi; Kim, Sunmin; Yamaguchi, Kosei</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>The use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue flood warnings. However, space scale of the hydrological domain is still much finer than meteorological model, and NWP models have challenges with displacement. The main objective of this study to enhance the transposition method proposed in Yu et al. (2014) and to suggest the post-processing ensemble flood forecasting method for the real-time updating and the accuracy improvement of flood forecasts that considers the separation of the orographic rainfall and the correction of misplaced rain distributions using additional ensemble information through the transposition of rain distributions. In the first step of the proposed method, ensemble forecast rainfalls from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are separated into orographic and non-orographic rainfall fields using atmospheric variables and the extraction of topographic effect. Then the non-orographic rainfall fields are examined by the transposition scheme to produce additional ensemble information and new ensemble NWP rainfall fields are calculated by recombining the transposition results of non-orographic rain fields with separated orographic rainfall fields for a generation of place-corrected ensemble information. Then, the additional ensemble information is applied into a hydrologic model for post-flood forecasting with a 6-h interval. The newly proposed method has a clear advantage to improve the accuracy of mean value of ensemble flood forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon 'Talas' of 2011 over the two catchments, which are Futatsuno (356.1 km2) and Nanairo (182.1 km2) dam catchments of Shingu river basin (2360 km2), which is located in the Kii peninsula, Japan.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22413556-bayesian-network-ensemble-multivariate-strategy-predict-radiation-pneumonitis-risk','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22413556-bayesian-network-ensemble-multivariate-strategy-predict-radiation-pneumonitis-risk"><span>Bayesian network ensemble as a multivariate strategy to predict radiation pneumonitis risk</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Lee, Sangkyu, E-mail: sangkyu.lee@mail.mcgill.ca; Ybarra, Norma; Jeyaseelan, Krishinima</p> <p>2015-05-15</p> <p>Purpose: Prediction of radiation pneumonitis (RP) has been shown to be challenging due to the involvement of a variety of factors including dose–volume metrics and radiosensitivity biomarkers. Some of these factors are highly correlated and might affect prediction results when combined. Bayesian network (BN) provides a probabilistic framework to represent variable dependencies in a directed acyclic graph. The aim of this study is to integrate the BN framework and a systems’ biology approach to detect possible interactions among RP risk factors and exploit these relationships to enhance both the understanding and prediction of RP. Methods: The authors studied 54 nonsmall-cellmore » lung cancer patients who received curative 3D-conformal radiotherapy. Nineteen RP events were observed (common toxicity criteria for adverse events grade 2 or higher). Serum concentration of the following four candidate biomarkers were measured at baseline and midtreatment: alpha-2-macroglobulin, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor, interleukin-6. Dose-volumetric and clinical parameters were also included as covariates. Feature selection was performed using a Markov blanket approach based on the Koller–Sahami filter. The Markov chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior distribution of BN graphs built from the observed data of the selected variables and causality constraints. RP probability was estimated using a limited number of high posterior graphs (ensemble) and was averaged for the final RP estimate using Bayes’ rule. A resampling method based on bootstrapping was applied to model training and validation in order to control under- and overfit pitfalls. Results: RP prediction power of the BN ensemble approach reached its optimum at a size of 200. The optimized performance of the BN model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83, which was significantly higher than multivariate logistic regression (0.77), mean heart dose (0.69), and a pre-to-midtreatment change in ACE (0.66). When RP prediction was made only with pretreatment information, the AUC ranged from 0.76 to 0.81 depending on the ensemble size. Bootstrap validation of graph features in the ensemble quantified confidence of association between variables in the graphs where ten interactions were statistically significant. Conclusions: The presented BN methodology provides the flexibility to model hierarchical interactions between RP covariates, which is applied to probabilistic inference on RP. The authors’ preliminary results demonstrate that such framework combined with an ensemble method can possibly improve prediction of RP under real-life clinical circumstances such as missing data or treatment plan adaptation.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EL.....9030004K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EL.....9030004K"><span>Ergodicity of financial indices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kolesnikov, A. V.; Rühl, T.</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>We introduce the concept of the ensemble averaging for financial markets. We address the question of equality of ensemble and time averaging in their sequence and investigate if these averagings are equivalent for large amount of equity indices and branches. We start with the model of Gaussian-distributed returns, equal-weighted stocks in each index and absence of correlations within a single day and show that even this oversimplified model captures already the run of the corresponding index reasonably well due to its self-averaging properties. We introduce the concept of the instant cross-sectional volatility and discuss its relation to the ordinary time-resolved counterpart. The role of the cross-sectional volatility for the description of the corresponding index as well as the role of correlations between the single stocks and the role of non-Gaussianity of stock distributions is briefly discussed. Our model reveals quickly and efficiently some anomalies or bubbles in a particular financial market and gives an estimate of how large these effects can be and how quickly they disappear.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25142516','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25142516"><span>The interplay between cooperativity and diversity in model threshold ensembles.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cervera, Javier; Manzanares, José A; Mafe, Salvador</p> <p>2014-10-06</p> <p>The interplay between cooperativity and diversity is crucial for biological ensembles because single molecule experiments show a significant degree of heterogeneity and also for artificial nanostructures because of the high individual variability characteristic of nanoscale units. We study the cross-effects between cooperativity and diversity in model threshold ensembles composed of individually different units that show a cooperative behaviour. The units are modelled as statistical distributions of parameters (the individual threshold potentials here) characterized by central and width distribution values. The simulations show that the interplay between cooperativity and diversity results in ensemble-averaged responses of interest for the understanding of electrical transduction in cell membranes, the experimental characterization of heterogeneous groups of biomolecules and the development of biologically inspired engineering designs with individually different building blocks. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5861991','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5861991"><span>Encoding of Spatial Attention by Primate Prefrontal Cortex Neuronal Ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Treue, Stefan</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Abstract Single neurons in the primate lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) encode information about the allocation of visual attention and the features of visual stimuli. However, how this compares to the performance of neuronal ensembles at encoding the same information is poorly understood. Here, we recorded the responses of neuronal ensembles in the LPFC of two macaque monkeys while they performed a task that required attending to one of two moving random dot patterns positioned in different hemifields and ignoring the other pattern. We found single units selective for the location of the attended stimulus as well as for its motion direction. To determine the coding of both variables in the population of recorded units, we used a linear classifier and progressively built neuronal ensembles by iteratively adding units according to their individual performance (best single units), or by iteratively adding units based on their contribution to the ensemble performance (best ensemble). For both methods, ensembles of relatively small sizes (n < 60) yielded substantially higher decoding performance relative to individual single units. However, the decoder reached similar performance using fewer neurons with the best ensemble building method compared with the best single units method. Our results indicate that neuronal ensembles within the LPFC encode more information about the attended spatial and nonspatial features of visual stimuli than individual neurons. They further suggest that efficient coding of attention can be achieved by relatively small neuronal ensembles characterized by a certain relationship between signal and noise correlation structures. PMID:29568798</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011TellA..63..445S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011TellA..63..445S"><span>Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Saito, Kazuo; Hara, Masahiro; Kunii, Masaru; Seko, Hiromu; Yamaguchi, Munehiko</p> <p>2011-05-01</p> <p>Different initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction were compared by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) as a part of the intercomparison of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). Five initial perturbation methods for mesoscale ensemble prediction were developed for B08RDP and compared at MRI: (1) a downscaling method of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week EPS (WEP), (2) a targeted global model singular vector (GSV) method, (3) a mesoscale model singular vector (MSV) method based on the adjoint model of the JMA non-hydrostatic model (NHM), (4) a mesoscale breeding growing mode (MBD) method based on the NHM forecast and (5) a local ensemble transform (LET) method based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) using NHM. These perturbation methods were applied to the preliminary experiments of the B08RDP Tier-1 mesoscale ensemble prediction with a horizontal resolution of 15 km. To make the comparison easier, the same horizontal resolution (40 km) was employed for the three mesoscale model-based initial perturbation methods (MSV, MBD and LET). The GSV method completely outperformed the WEP method, confirming the advantage of targeting in mesoscale EPS. The GSV method generally performed well with regard to root mean square errors of the ensemble mean, large growth rates of ensemble spreads throughout the 36-h forecast period, and high detection rates and high Brier skill scores (BSSs) for weak rains. On the other hand, the mesoscale model-based initial perturbation methods showed good detection rates and BSSs for intense rains. The MSV method showed a rapid growth in the ensemble spread of precipitation up to a forecast time of 6 h, which suggests suitability of the mesoscale SV for short-range EPSs, but the initial large growth of the perturbation did not last long. The performance of the MBD method was good for ensemble prediction of intense rain with a relatively small computing cost. The LET method showed similar characteristics to the MBD method, but the spread and growth rate were slightly smaller and the relative operating characteristic area skill score and BSS did not surpass those of MBD. These characteristic features of the five methods were confirmed by checking the evolution of the total energy norms and their growth rates. Characteristics of the initial perturbations obtained by four methods (GSV, MSV, MBD and LET) were examined for the case of a synoptic low-pressure system passing over eastern China. With GSV and MSV, the regions of large spread were near the low-pressure system, but with MSV, the distribution was more concentrated on the mesoscale disturbance. On the other hand, large-spread areas were observed southwest of the disturbance in MBD and LET. The horizontal pattern of LET perturbation was similar to that of MBD, but the amplitude of the LET perturbation reflected the observation density.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.A23F..03A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.A23F..03A"><span>Ensemble Downscaling of Winter Seasonal Forecasts: The MRED Project</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arritt, R. W.; Mred Team</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The Multi-Regional climate model Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project is a multi-institutional project that is producing large ensembles of downscaled winter seasonal forecasts from coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal prediction models. Eight regional climate models each are downscaling 15-member ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the new NASA seasonal forecast system based on the GEOS5 atmospheric model coupled with the MOM4 ocean model. This produces 240-member ensembles, i.e., 8 regional models x 15 global ensemble members x 2 global models, for each winter season (December-April) of 1982-2003. Results to date show that combined global-regional downscaled forecasts have greatest skill for seasonal precipitation anomalies during strong El Niño events such as 1982-83 and 1997-98. Ensemble means of area-averaged seasonal precipitation for the regional models generally track the corresponding results for the global model, though there is considerable inter-model variability amongst the regional models. For seasons and regions where area mean precipitation is accurately simulated the regional models bring added value by extracting greater spatial detail from the global forecasts, mainly due to better resolution of terrain in the regional models. Our results also emphasize that an ensemble approach is essential to realizing the added value from the combined global-regional modeling system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011280','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011280"><span>Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JARS...11d5009E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JARS...11d5009E"><span>Multiple-instance ensemble learning for hyperspectral images</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ergul, Ugur; Bilgin, Gokhan</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>An ensemble framework for multiple-instance (MI) learning (MIL) is introduced for use in hyperspectral images (HSIs) by inspiring the bagging (bootstrap aggregation) method in ensemble learning. Ensemble-based bagging is performed by a small percentage of training samples, and MI bags are formed by a local windowing process with variable window sizes on selected instances. In addition to bootstrap aggregation, random subspace is another method used to diversify base classifiers. The proposed method is implemented using four MIL classification algorithms. The classifier model learning phase is carried out with MI bags, and the estimation phase is performed over single-test instances. In the experimental part of the study, two different HSIs that have ground-truth information are used, and comparative results are demonstrated with state-of-the-art classification methods. In general, the MI ensemble approach produces more compact results in terms of both diversity and error compared to equipollent non-MIL algorithms.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3598863','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3598863"><span>On the statistical equivalence of restrained-ensemble simulations with the maximum entropy method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Roux, Benoît; Weare, Jonathan</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>An issue of general interest in computer simulations is to incorporate information from experiments into a structural model. An important caveat in pursuing this goal is to avoid corrupting the resulting model with spurious and arbitrary biases. While the problem of biasing thermodynamic ensembles can be formulated rigorously using the maximum entropy method introduced by Jaynes, the approach can be cumbersome in practical applications with the need to determine multiple unknown coefficients iteratively. A popular alternative strategy to incorporate the information from experiments is to rely on restrained-ensemble molecular dynamics simulations. However, the fundamental validity of this computational strategy remains in question. Here, it is demonstrated that the statistical distribution produced by restrained-ensemble simulations is formally consistent with the maximum entropy method of Jaynes. This clarifies the underlying conditions under which restrained-ensemble simulations will yield results that are consistent with the maximum entropy method. PMID:23464140</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_18 --> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012CoPhC.183.1783U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012CoPhC.183.1783U"><span>Novel algorithm and MATLAB-based program for automated power law analysis of single particle, time-dependent mean-square displacement</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Umansky, Moti; Weihs, Daphne</p> <p>2012-08-01</p> <p>In many physical and biophysical studies, single-particle tracking is utilized to reveal interactions, diffusion coefficients, active modes of driving motion, dynamic local structure, micromechanics, and microrheology. The basic analysis applied to those data is to determine the time-dependent mean-square displacement (MSD) of particle trajectories and perform time- and ensemble-averaging of similar motions. The motion of particles typically exhibits time-dependent power-law scaling, and only trajectories with qualitatively and quantitatively comparable MSD should be ensembled. Ensemble averaging trajectories that arise from different mechanisms, e.g., actively driven and diffusive, is incorrect and can result inaccurate correlations between structure, mechanics, and activity. We have developed an algorithm to automatically and accurately determine power-law scaling of experimentally measured single-particle MSD. Trajectories can then categorized and grouped according to user defined cutoffs of time, amplitudes, scaling exponent values, or combinations. Power-law fits are then provided for each trajectory alongside categorized groups of trajectories, histograms of power laws, and the ensemble-averaged MSD of each group. The codes are designed to be easily incorporated into existing user codes. We expect that this algorithm and program will be invaluable to anyone performing single-particle tracking, be it in physical or biophysical systems. Catalogue identifier: AEMD_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEMD_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 25 892 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 5 572 780 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: MATLAB (MathWorks Inc.) version 7.11 (2010b) or higher, program should also be backwards compatible. Symbolic Math Toolboxes (5.5) is required. The Curve Fitting Toolbox (3.0) is recommended. Computer: Tested on Windows only, yet should work on any computer running MATLAB. In Windows 7, should be used as administrator, if the user is not the administrator the program may not be able to save outputs and temporary outputs to all locations. Operating system: Any supporting MATLAB (MathWorks Inc.) v7.11 / 2010b or higher. Supplementary material: Sample output files (approx. 30 MBytes) are available. Classification: 12 External routines: Several MATLAB subfunctions (m-files), freely available on the web, were used as part of and included in, this code: count, NaN suite, parseArgs, roundsd, subaxis, wcov, wmean, and the executable pdfTK.exe. Nature of problem: In many physical and biophysical areas employing single-particle tracking, having the time-dependent power-laws governing the time-averaged meansquare displacement (MSD) of a single particle is crucial. Those power laws determine the mode-of-motion and hint at the underlying mechanisms driving motion. Accurate determination of the power laws that describe each trajectory will allow categorization into groups for further analysis of single trajectories or ensemble analysis, e.g. ensemble and time-averaged MSD. Solution method: The algorithm in the provided program automatically analyzes and fits time-dependent power laws to single particle trajectories, then group particles according to user defined cutoffs. It accepts time-dependent trajectories of several particles, each trajectory is run through the program, its time-averaged MSD is calculated, and power laws are determined in regions where the MSD is linear on a log-log scale. Our algorithm searches for high-curvature points in experimental data, here time-dependent MSD. Those serve as anchor points for determining the ranges of the power-law fits. Power-law scaling is then accurately determined and error estimations of the parameters and quality of fit are provided. After all single trajectory time-averaged MSDs are fit, we obtain cutoffs from the user to categorize and segment the power laws into groups; cutoff are either in exponents of the power laws, time of appearance of the fits, or both together. The trajectories are sorted according to the cutoffs and the time- and ensemble-averaged MSD of each group is provided, with histograms of the distributions of the exponents in each group. The program then allows the user to generate new trajectory files with trajectories segmented according to the determined groups, for any further required analysis. Additional comments: README file giving the names and a brief description of all the files that make-up the package and clear instructions on the installation and execution of the program is included in the distribution package. Running time: On an i5 Windows 7 machine with 4 GB RAM the automated parts of the run (excluding data loading and user input) take less than 45 minutes to analyze and save all stages for an 844 trajectory file, including optional PDF save. Trajectory length did not affect run time (tested up to 3600 frames/trajectory), which was on average 3.2±0.4 seconds per trajectory.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26588304','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26588304"><span>Hybrid Quantum Mechanics/Molecular Mechanics Solvation Scheme for Computing Free Energies of Reactions at Metal-Water Interfaces.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Faheem, Muhammad; Heyden, Andreas</p> <p>2014-08-12</p> <p>We report the development of a quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics free energy perturbation (QM/MM-FEP) method for modeling chemical reactions at metal-water interfaces. This novel solvation scheme combines planewave density function theory (DFT), periodic electrostatic embedded cluster method (PEECM) calculations using Gaussian-type orbitals, and classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to obtain a free energy description of a complex metal-water system. We derive a potential of mean force (PMF) of the reaction system within the QM/MM framework. A fixed-size, finite ensemble of MM conformations is used to permit precise evaluation of the PMF of QM coordinates and its gradient defined within this ensemble. Local conformations of adsorbed reaction moieties are optimized using sequential MD-sampling and QM-optimization steps. An approximate reaction coordinate is constructed using a number of interpolated states and the free energy difference between adjacent states is calculated using the QM/MM-FEP method. By avoiding on-the-fly QM calculations and by circumventing the challenges associated with statistical averaging during MD sampling, a computational speedup of multiple orders of magnitude is realized. The method is systematically validated against the results of ab initio QM calculations and demonstrated for C-C cleavage in double-dehydrogenated ethylene glycol on a Pt (111) model surface.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-05-18/pdf/2010-11818.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-05-18/pdf/2010-11818.pdf"><span>75 FR 27736 - Availability for Non-Exclusive, Exclusive, or Partially Exclusive Licensing of U.S. Provisional...</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-05-18</p> <p>... Cooling Method for Protective Clothing Ensembles AGENCY: Department of the Army, DoD. ACTION: Notice... Protective Clothing Ensembles,'' filed March 30, 2010. The United States Government, as represented by the... to a two- stage evaporative cooling method for use in protective clothing ensembles. Brenda S. Bowen...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhRvA..86a2310B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhRvA..86a2310B"><span>Optimizing inhomogeneous spin ensembles for quantum memory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bensky, Guy; Petrosyan, David; Majer, Johannes; Schmiedmayer, Jörg; Kurizki, Gershon</p> <p>2012-07-01</p> <p>We propose a method to maximize the fidelity of quantum memory implemented by a spectrally inhomogeneous spin ensemble. The method is based on preselecting the optimal spectral portion of the ensemble by judiciously designed pulses. This leads to significant improvement of the transfer and storage of quantum information encoded in the microwave or optical field.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A23D2398D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A23D2398D"><span>Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dairaku, K.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8873992','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8873992"><span>Grand canonical ensemble Monte Carlo simulation of the dCpG/proflavine crystal hydrate.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Resat, H; Mezei, M</p> <p>1996-09-01</p> <p>The grand canonical ensemble Monte Carlo molecular simulation method is used to investigate hydration patterns in the crystal hydrate structure of the dCpG/proflavine intercalated complex. The objective of this study is to show by example that the recently advocated grand canonical ensemble simulation is a computationally efficient method for determining the positions of the hydrating water molecules in protein and nucleic acid structures. A detailed molecular simulation convergence analysis and an analogous comparison of the theoretical results with experiments clearly show that the grand ensemble simulations can be far more advantageous than the comparable canonical ensemble simulations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CoPhC.188....1G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CoPhC.188....1G"><span>Stabilizing canonical-ensemble calculations in the auxiliary-field Monte Carlo method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gilbreth, C. N.; Alhassid, Y.</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>Quantum Monte Carlo methods are powerful techniques for studying strongly interacting Fermi systems. However, implementing these methods on computers with finite-precision arithmetic requires careful attention to numerical stability. In the auxiliary-field Monte Carlo (AFMC) method, low-temperature or large-model-space calculations require numerically stabilized matrix multiplication. When adapting methods used in the grand-canonical ensemble to the canonical ensemble of fixed particle number, the numerical stabilization increases the number of required floating-point operations for computing observables by a factor of the size of the single-particle model space, and thus can greatly limit the systems that can be studied. We describe an improved method for stabilizing canonical-ensemble calculations in AFMC that exhibits better scaling, and present numerical tests that demonstrate the accuracy and improved performance of the method.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1129305-bayesian-model-aggregation-ensemble-based-estimates-protein-pka-values','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1129305-bayesian-model-aggregation-ensemble-based-estimates-protein-pka-values"><span>Bayesian model aggregation for ensemble-based estimates of protein pKa values</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Gosink, Luke J.; Hogan, Emilie A.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.</p> <p>2014-03-01</p> <p>This paper investigates an ensemble-based technique called Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to improve the performance of protein amino acid pmore » $$K_a$$ predictions. Structure-based p$$K_a$$ calculations play an important role in the mechanistic interpretation of protein structure and are also used to determine a wide range of protein properties. A diverse set of methods currently exist for p$$K_a$$ prediction, ranging from empirical statistical models to {\\it ab initio} quantum mechanical approaches. However, each of these methods are based on a set of assumptions that have inherent bias and sensitivities that can effect a model's accuracy and generalizability for p$$K_a$$ prediction in complicated biomolecular systems. We use BMA to combine eleven diverse prediction methods that each estimate pKa values of amino acids in staphylococcal nuclease. These methods are based on work conducted for the pKa Cooperative and the pKa measurements are based on experimental work conducted by the Garc{\\'i}a-Moreno lab. Our study demonstrates that the aggregated estimate obtained from BMA outperforms all individual prediction methods in our cross-validation study with improvements from 40-70\\% over other method classes. This work illustrates a new possible mechanism for improving the accuracy of p$$K_a$$ prediction and lays the foundation for future work on aggregate models that balance computational cost with prediction accuracy.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3580869','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3580869"><span>Automated Delineation of Lung Tumors from CT Images Using a Single Click Ensemble Segmentation Approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Gu, Yuhua; Kumar, Virendra; Hall, Lawrence O; Goldgof, Dmitry B; Li, Ching-Yen; Korn, René; Bendtsen, Claus; Velazquez, Emmanuel Rios; Dekker, Andre; Aerts, Hugo; Lambin, Philippe; Li, Xiuli; Tian, Jie; Gatenby, Robert A; Gillies, Robert J</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>A single click ensemble segmentation (SCES) approach based on an existing “Click&Grow” algorithm is presented. The SCES approach requires only one operator selected seed point as compared with multiple operator inputs, which are typically needed. This facilitates processing large numbers of cases. Evaluation on a set of 129 CT lung tumor images using a similarity index (SI) was done. The average SI is above 93% using 20 different start seeds, showing stability. The average SI for 2 different readers was 79.53%. We then compared the SCES algorithm with the two readers, the level set algorithm and the skeleton graph cut algorithm obtaining an average SI of 78.29%, 77.72%, 63.77% and 63.76% respectively. We can conclude that the newly developed automatic lung lesion segmentation algorithm is stable, accurate and automated. PMID:23459617</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29054572','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29054572"><span>Chaotic genetic algorithm and Adaboost ensemble metamodeling approach for optimum resource planning in emergency departments.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Yousefi, Milad; Yousefi, Moslem; Ferreira, Ricardo Poley Martins; Kim, Joong Hoon; Fogliatto, Flavio S</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Long length of stay and overcrowding in emergency departments (EDs) are two common problems in the healthcare industry. To decrease the average length of stay (ALOS) and tackle overcrowding, numerous resources, including the number of doctors, nurses and receptionists need to be adjusted, while a number of constraints are to be considered at the same time. In this study, an efficient method based on agent-based simulation, machine learning and the genetic algorithm (GA) is presented to determine optimum resource allocation in emergency departments. GA can effectively explore the entire domain of all 19 variables and identify the optimum resource allocation through evolution and mimicking the survival of the fittest concept. A chaotic mutation operator is used in this study to boost GA performance. A model of the system needs to be run several thousand times through the GA evolution process to evaluate each solution, hence the process is computationally expensive. To overcome this drawback, a robust metamodel is initially constructed based on an agent-based system simulation. The simulation exhibits ED performance with various resource allocations and trains the metamodel. The metamodel is created with an ensemble of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), feedforward neural network (FFNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) using the adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) ensemble algorithm. The proposed GA-based optimization approach is tested in a public ED, and it is shown to decrease the ALOS in this ED case study by 14%. Additionally, the proposed metamodel shows a 26.6% improvement compared to the average results of ANFIS, FFNN and RNN in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25913899','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25913899"><span>Real time detection of farm-level swine mycobacteriosis outbreak using time series modeling of the number of condemned intestines in abattoirs.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Adachi, Yasumoto; Makita, Kohei</p> <p>2015-09-01</p> <p>Mycobacteriosis in swine is a common zoonosis found in abattoirs during meat inspections, and the veterinary authority is expected to inform the producer for corrective actions when an outbreak is detected. The expected value of the number of condemned carcasses due to mycobacteriosis therefore would be a useful threshold to detect an outbreak, and the present study aims to develop such an expected value through time series modeling. The model was developed using eight years of inspection data (2003 to 2010) obtained at 2 abattoirs of the Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Japan. The resulting model was validated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years with the actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012. For the modeling, at first, periodicities were checked using Fast Fourier Transformation, and the ensemble average profiles for weekly periodicities were calculated. An Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the residual of the ensemble average on the basis of minimum Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The sum of the ARIMA model and the weekly ensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value. During 2011 and 2012, the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values 20 times. All of these events were associated with the slaughtering of pigs from three producers with the highest rate of condemnation due to mycobacteriosis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4067289','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4067289"><span>Ensemble Generation and the Influence of Protein Flexibility on Geometric Tunnel Prediction in Cytochrome P450 Enzymes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kingsley, Laura J.; Lill, Markus A.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Computational prediction of ligand entry and egress paths in proteins has become an emerging topic in computational biology and has proven useful in fields such as protein engineering and drug design. Geometric tunnel prediction programs, such as Caver3.0 and MolAxis, are computationally efficient methods to identify potential ligand entry and egress routes in proteins. Although many geometric tunnel programs are designed to accommodate a single input structure, the increasingly recognized importance of protein flexibility in tunnel formation and behavior has led to the more widespread use of protein ensembles in tunnel prediction. However, there has not yet been an attempt to directly investigate the influence of ensemble size and composition on geometric tunnel prediction. In this study, we compared tunnels found in a single crystal structure to ensembles of various sizes generated using different methods on both the apo and holo forms of cytochrome P450 enzymes CYP119, CYP2C9, and CYP3A4. Several protein structure clustering methods were tested in an attempt to generate smaller ensembles that were capable of reproducing the data from larger ensembles. Ultimately, we found that by including members from both the apo and holo data sets, we could produce ensembles containing less than 15 members that were comparable to apo or holo ensembles containing over 100 members. Furthermore, we found that, in the absence of either apo or holo crystal structure data, pseudo-apo or –holo ensembles (e.g. adding ligand to apo protein throughout MD simulations) could be used to resemble the structural ensembles of the corresponding apo and holo ensembles, respectively. Our findings not only further highlight the importance of including protein flexibility in geometric tunnel prediction, but also suggest that smaller ensembles can be as capable as larger ensembles at capturing many of the protein motions important for tunnel prediction at a lower computational cost. PMID:24956479</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27120113','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27120113"><span>A Hyper-Heuristic Ensemble Method for Static Job-Shop Scheduling.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hart, Emma; Sim, Kevin</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>We describe a new hyper-heuristic method NELLI-GP for solving job-shop scheduling problems (JSSP) that evolves an ensemble of heuristics. The ensemble adopts a divide-and-conquer approach in which each heuristic solves a unique subset of the instance set considered. NELLI-GP extends an existing ensemble method called NELLI by introducing a novel heuristic generator that evolves heuristics composed of linear sequences of dispatching rules: each rule is represented using a tree structure and is itself evolved. Following a training period, the ensemble is shown to outperform both existing dispatching rules and a standard genetic programming algorithm on a large set of new test instances. In addition, it obtains superior results on a set of 210 benchmark problems from the literature when compared to two state-of-the-art hyper-heuristic approaches. Further analysis of the relationship between heuristics in the evolved ensemble and the instances each solves provides new insights into features that might describe similar instances.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EPJWC.15101001F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EPJWC.15101001F"><span>The structure of liquid metals probed by XAS</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Filipponi, Adriano; Di Cicco, Andrea; Iesari, Fabio; Trapananti, Angela</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a powerful technique to investigate the short-range order around selected atomic species in condensed matter. The theoretical framework and previous applications to undercooled elemental liquid metals are briefly reviewed. Specific results on undercooled liquid Ni obtained using a peak fitting approach validated on the spectra of solid Ni are presented. This method provides a clear evidence that a signature from close packed triangular configurations of nearest neighbors survives in the liquid state and is clearly detectable below k ≈ 5 Å-1, stimulating the improvement of data-analysis methods that account properly for the ensemble average, such as Reverse Monte Carlo.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940010283','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940010283"><span>Estimation of the vortex length scale and intensity from two-dimensional samples</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Reuss, D. L.; Cheng, W. P.</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p>A method is proposed for estimating flow features that influence flame wrinkling in reciprocating internal combustion engines, where traditional statistical measures of turbulence are suspect. Candidate methods were tested in a computed channel flow where traditional turbulence measures are valid and performance can be rationally evaluated. Two concepts are tested. First, spatial filtering is applied to the two-dimensional velocity distribution and found to reveal structures corresponding to the vorticity field. Decreasing the spatial-frequency cutoff of the filter locally changes the character and size of the flow structures that are revealed by the filter. Second, vortex length scale and intensity is estimated by computing the ensemble-average velocity distribution conditionally sampled on the vorticity peaks. The resulting conditionally sampled 'average vortex' has a peak velocity less than half the rms velocity and a size approximately equal to the two-point-correlation integral-length scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5325197','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5325197"><span>Clustering cancer gene expression data by projective clustering ensemble</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Yu, Xianxue; Yu, Guoxian</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Gene expression data analysis has paramount implications for gene treatments, cancer diagnosis and other domains. Clustering is an important and promising tool to analyze gene expression data. Gene expression data is often characterized by a large amount of genes but with limited samples, thus various projective clustering techniques and ensemble techniques have been suggested to combat with these challenges. However, it is rather challenging to synergy these two kinds of techniques together to avoid the curse of dimensionality problem and to boost the performance of gene expression data clustering. In this paper, we employ a projective clustering ensemble (PCE) to integrate the advantages of projective clustering and ensemble clustering, and to avoid the dilemma of combining multiple projective clusterings. Our experimental results on publicly available cancer gene expression data show PCE can improve the quality of clustering gene expression data by at least 4.5% (on average) than other related techniques, including dimensionality reduction based single clustering and ensemble approaches. The empirical study demonstrates that, to further boost the performance of clustering cancer gene expression data, it is necessary and promising to synergy projective clustering with ensemble clustering. PCE can serve as an effective alternative technique for clustering gene expression data. PMID:28234920</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28763673','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28763673"><span>Performance assessment of individual and ensemble data-mining techniques for gully erosion modeling.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Yousefi, Saleh; Kornejady, Aiding; Cerdà, Artemi</p> <p>2017-12-31</p> <p>Gully erosion is identified as an important sediment source in a range of environments and plays a conclusive role in redistribution of eroded soils on a slope. Hence, addressing spatial occurrence pattern of this phenomenon is very important. Different ensemble models and their single counterparts, mostly data mining methods, have been used for gully erosion susceptibility mapping; however, their calibration and validation procedures need to be thoroughly addressed. The current study presents a series of individual and ensemble data mining methods including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), maximum entropy (ME), ANN-SVM, ANN-ME, and SVM-ME to map gully erosion susceptibility in Aghemam watershed, Iran. To this aim, a gully inventory map along with sixteen gully conditioning factors was used. A 70:30% randomly partitioned sets were used to assess goodness-of-fit and prediction power of the models. The robustness, as the stability of models' performance in response to changes in the dataset, was assessed through three training/test replicates. As a result, conducted preliminary statistical tests showed that ANN has the highest concordance and spatial differentiation with a chi-square value of 36,656 at 95% confidence level, while the ME appeared to have the lowest concordance (1772). The ME model showed an impractical result where 45% of the study area was introduced as highly susceptible to gullying, in contrast, ANN-SVM indicated a practical result with focusing only on 34% of the study area. Through all three replicates, the ANN-SVM ensemble showed the highest goodness-of-fit and predictive power with a respective values of 0.897 (area under the success rate curve) and 0.879 (area under the prediction rate curve), on average, and correspondingly the highest robustness. This attests the important role of ensemble modeling in congruently building accurate and generalized models which emphasizes the necessity to examine different models integrations. The result of this study can prepare an outline for further biophysical designs on gullies scattered in the study area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5840L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5840L"><span>Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24672402','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24672402"><span>Constructing better classifier ensemble based on weighted accuracy and diversity measure.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zeng, Xiaodong; Wong, Derek F; Chao, Lidia S</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>A weighted accuracy and diversity (WAD) method is presented, a novel measure used to evaluate the quality of the classifier ensemble, assisting in the ensemble selection task. The proposed measure is motivated by a commonly accepted hypothesis; that is, a robust classifier ensemble should not only be accurate but also different from every other member. In fact, accuracy and diversity are mutual restraint factors; that is, an ensemble with high accuracy may have low diversity, and an overly diverse ensemble may negatively affect accuracy. This study proposes a method to find the balance between accuracy and diversity that enhances the predictive ability of an ensemble for unknown data. The quality assessment for an ensemble is performed such that the final score is achieved by computing the harmonic mean of accuracy and diversity, where two weight parameters are used to balance them. The measure is compared to two representative measures, Kappa-Error and GenDiv, and two threshold measures that consider only accuracy or diversity, with two heuristic search algorithms, genetic algorithm, and forward hill-climbing algorithm, in ensemble selection tasks performed on 15 UCI benchmark datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that the WAD measure is superior to others in most cases.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3925515','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3925515"><span>Constructing Better Classifier Ensemble Based on Weighted Accuracy and Diversity Measure</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chao, Lidia S.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>A weighted accuracy and diversity (WAD) method is presented, a novel measure used to evaluate the quality of the classifier ensemble, assisting in the ensemble selection task. The proposed measure is motivated by a commonly accepted hypothesis; that is, a robust classifier ensemble should not only be accurate but also different from every other member. In fact, accuracy and diversity are mutual restraint factors; that is, an ensemble with high accuracy may have low diversity, and an overly diverse ensemble may negatively affect accuracy. This study proposes a method to find the balance between accuracy and diversity that enhances the predictive ability of an ensemble for unknown data. The quality assessment for an ensemble is performed such that the final score is achieved by computing the harmonic mean of accuracy and diversity, where two weight parameters are used to balance them. The measure is compared to two representative measures, Kappa-Error and GenDiv, and two threshold measures that consider only accuracy or diversity, with two heuristic search algorithms, genetic algorithm, and forward hill-climbing algorithm, in ensemble selection tasks performed on 15 UCI benchmark datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that the WAD measure is superior to others in most cases. PMID:24672402</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_19 --> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JHyd..529..754A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JHyd..529..754A"><span>A comparative analysis of 9 multi-model averaging approaches in hydrological continuous streamflow simulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arsenault, Richard; Gatien, Philippe; Renaud, Benoit; Brissette, François; Martel, Jean-Luc</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>This study aims to test whether a weighted combination of several hydrological models can simulate flows more accurately than the models taken individually. In addition, the project attempts to identify the most efficient model averaging method and the optimal number of models to include in the weighting scheme. In order to address the first objective, streamflow was simulated using four lumped hydrological models (HSAMI, HMETS, MOHYSE and GR4J-6), each of which were calibrated with three different objective functions on 429 watersheds. The resulting 12 hydrographs (4 models × 3 metrics) were weighted and combined with the help of 9 averaging methods which are the simple arithmetic mean (SAM), Akaike information criterion (AICA), Bates-Granger (BGA), Bayes information criterion (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Granger-Ramanathan average variant A, B and C (GRA, GRB and GRC) and the average by SCE-UA optimization (SCA). The same weights were then applied to the hydrographs in validation mode, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency metric was measured between the averaged and observed hydrographs. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the accuracy of weighted methods to that of individual models. A Kruskal-Wallis test and a multi-objective optimization algorithm were then used to identify the most efficient weighted method and the optimal number of models to integrate. Results suggest that the GRA, GRB, GRC and SCA weighted methods perform better than the individual members. Model averaging from these four methods were superior to the best of the individual members in 76% of the cases. Optimal combinations on all watersheds included at least one of each of the four hydrological models. None of the optimal combinations included all members of the ensemble of 12 hydrographs. The Granger-Ramanathan average variant C (GRC) is recommended as the best compromise between accuracy, speed of execution, and simplicity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1233585','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1233585"><span>Grand canonical ensemble Monte Carlo simulation of the dCpG/proflavine crystal hydrate.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Resat, H; Mezei, M</p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>The grand canonical ensemble Monte Carlo molecular simulation method is used to investigate hydration patterns in the crystal hydrate structure of the dCpG/proflavine intercalated complex. The objective of this study is to show by example that the recently advocated grand canonical ensemble simulation is a computationally efficient method for determining the positions of the hydrating water molecules in protein and nucleic acid structures. A detailed molecular simulation convergence analysis and an analogous comparison of the theoretical results with experiments clearly show that the grand ensemble simulations can be far more advantageous than the comparable canonical ensemble simulations. Images FIGURE 5 FIGURE 7 PMID:8873992</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1514107S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1514107S"><span>Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4273A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4273A"><span>Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Anderson, Gemma J.; Lucas, Donald D.</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. We also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5024108','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5024108"><span>Controllable quantum dynamics of inhomogeneous nitrogen-vacancy center ensembles coupled to superconducting resonators</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Song, Wan-lu; Yang, Wan-li; Yin, Zhang-qi; Chen, Chang-yong; Feng, Mang</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>We explore controllable quantum dynamics of a hybrid system, which consists of an array of mutually coupled superconducting resonators (SRs) with each containing a nitrogen-vacancy center spin ensemble (NVE) in the presence of inhomogeneous broadening. We focus on a three-site model, which compared with the two-site case, shows more complicated and richer dynamical behavior, and displays a series of damped oscillations under various experimental situations, reflecting the intricate balance and competition between the NVE-SR collective coupling and the adjacent-site photon hopping. Particularly, we find that the inhomogeneous broadening of the spin ensemble can suppress the population transfer between the SR and the local NVE. In this context, although the inhomogeneous broadening of the spin ensemble diminishes entanglement among the NVEs, optimal entanglement, characterized by averaging the lower bound of concurrence, could be achieved through accurately adjusting the tunable parameters. PMID:27627994</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28036236','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28036236"><span>Ensemble Perception of Dynamic Emotional Groups.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Elias, Elric; Dyer, Michael; Sweeny, Timothy D</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Crowds of emotional faces are ubiquitous, so much so that the visual system utilizes a specialized mechanism known as ensemble coding to see them. In addition to being proximally close, members of emotional crowds, such as a laughing audience or an angry mob, often behave together. The manner in which crowd members behave-in sync or out of sync-may be critical for understanding their collective affect. Are ensemble mechanisms sensitive to these dynamic properties of groups? Here, observers estimated the average emotion of a crowd of dynamic faces. The members of some crowds changed their expressions synchronously, whereas individuals in other crowds acted asynchronously. Observers perceived the emotion of a synchronous group more precisely than the emotion of an asynchronous crowd or even a single dynamic face. These results demonstrate that ensemble representation is particularly sensitive to coordinated behavior, and they suggest that shared behavior is critical for understanding emotion in groups.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AtmEn.134..168N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AtmEn.134..168N"><span>A novel hybrid decomposition-and-ensemble model based on CEEMD and GWO for short-term PM2.5 concentration forecasting</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Niu, Mingfei; Wang, Yufang; Sun, Shaolong; Li, Yongwu</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>To enhance prediction reliability and accuracy, a hybrid model based on the promising principle of "decomposition and ensemble" and a recently proposed meta-heuristic called grey wolf optimizer (GWO) is introduced for daily PM2.5 concentration forecasting. Compared with existing PM2.5 forecasting methods, this proposed model has improved the prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction. The proposed model involves three main steps, i.e., decomposing the original PM2.5 series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) via complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) for simplifying the complex data; individually predicting each IMF with support vector regression (SVR) optimized by GWO; integrating all predicted IMFs for the ensemble result as the final prediction by another SVR optimized by GWO. Seven benchmark models, including single artificial intelligence (AI) models, other decomposition-ensemble models with different decomposition methods and models with the same decomposition-ensemble method but optimized by different algorithms, are considered to verify the superiority of the proposed hybrid model. The empirical study indicates that the proposed hybrid decomposition-ensemble model is remarkably superior to all considered benchmark models for its higher prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29240972','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29240972"><span>Evidence for Dynamic Chemical Kinetics at Individual Molecular Ruthenium Catalysts.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Easter, Quinn T; Blum, Suzanne A</p> <p>2018-02-05</p> <p>Catalytic cycles are typically depicted as possessing time-invariant steps with fixed rates. Yet the true behavior of individual catalysts with respect to time is unknown, hidden by the ensemble averaging inherent to bulk measurements. Evidence is presented for variable chemical kinetics at individual catalysts, with a focus on ring-opening metathesis polymerization catalyzed by the second-generation Grubbs' ruthenium catalyst. Fluorescence microscopy is used to probe the chemical kinetics of the reaction because the technique possesses sufficient sensitivity for the detection of single chemical reactions. Insertion reactions in submicron regions likely occur at groups of many (not single) catalysts, yet not so many that their unique kinetic behavior is ensemble averaged. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1393517','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1393517"><span>A performance analysis of ensemble averaging for high fidelity turbulence simulations at the strong scaling limit</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Makarashvili, Vakhtang; Merzari, Elia; Obabko, Aleksandr</p> <p></p> <p>We analyze the potential performance benefits of estimating expected quantities in large eddy simulations of turbulent flows using true ensembles rather than ergodic time averaging. Multiple realizations of the same flow are simulated in parallel, using slightly perturbed initial conditions to create unique instantaneous evolutions of the flow field. Each realization is then used to calculate statistical quantities. Provided each instance is sufficiently de-correlated, this approach potentially allows considerable reduction in the time to solution beyond the strong scaling limit for a given accuracy. This study focuses on the theory and implementation of the methodology in Nek5000, a massively parallelmore » open-source spectral element code.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1393517-performance-analysis-ensemble-averaging-high-fidelity-turbulence-simulations-strong-scaling-limit','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1393517-performance-analysis-ensemble-averaging-high-fidelity-turbulence-simulations-strong-scaling-limit"><span>A performance analysis of ensemble averaging for high fidelity turbulence simulations at the strong scaling limit</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Makarashvili, Vakhtang; Merzari, Elia; Obabko, Aleksandr; ...</p> <p>2017-06-07</p> <p>We analyze the potential performance benefits of estimating expected quantities in large eddy simulations of turbulent flows using true ensembles rather than ergodic time averaging. Multiple realizations of the same flow are simulated in parallel, using slightly perturbed initial conditions to create unique instantaneous evolutions of the flow field. Each realization is then used to calculate statistical quantities. Provided each instance is sufficiently de-correlated, this approach potentially allows considerable reduction in the time to solution beyond the strong scaling limit for a given accuracy. This study focuses on the theory and implementation of the methodology in Nek5000, a massively parallelmore » open-source spectral element code.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19760010865','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19760010865"><span>A strictly Markovian expansion for plasma turbulence theory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Jones, F. C.</p> <p>1976-01-01</p> <p>The collision operator that appears in the equation of motion for a particle distribution function that was averaged over an ensemble of random Hamiltonians is non-Markovian. It is non-Markovian in that it involves a propagated integral over the past history of the ensemble averaged distribution function. All formal expansions of this nonlinear collision operator to date preserve this non-Markovian character term by term yielding an integro-differential equation that must be converted to a diffusion equation by an additional approximation. An expansion is derived for the collision operator that is strictly Markovian to any finite order and yields a diffusion equation as the lowest nontrivial order. The validity of this expansion is seen to be the same as that of the standard quasilinear expansion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20487509','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20487509"><span>Prediction of protein long-range contacts using an ensemble of genetic algorithm classifiers with sequence profile centers.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chen, Peng; Li, Jinyan</p> <p>2010-05-17</p> <p>Prediction of long-range inter-residue contacts is an important topic in bioinformatics research. It is helpful for determining protein structures, understanding protein foldings, and therefore advancing the annotation of protein functions. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble of genetic algorithm classifiers (GaCs) to address the long-range contact prediction problem. Our method is based on the key idea called sequence profile centers (SPCs). Each SPC is the average sequence profiles of residue pairs belonging to the same contact class or non-contact class. GaCs train on multiple but different pairs of long-range contact data (positive data) and long-range non-contact data (negative data). The negative data sets, having roughly the same sizes as the positive ones, are constructed by random sampling over the original imbalanced negative data. As a result, about 21.5% long-range contacts are correctly predicted. We also found that the ensemble of GaCs indeed makes an accuracy improvement by around 5.6% over the single GaC. Classifiers with the use of sequence profile centers may advance the long-range contact prediction. In line with this approach, key structural features in proteins would be determined with high efficiency and accuracy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23049158','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23049158"><span>μ-PIV measurements of the ensemble flow fields surrounding a migrating semi-infinite bubble.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Yamaguchi, Eiichiro; Smith, Bradford J; Gaver, Donald P</p> <p>2009-08-01</p> <p>Microscale particle image velocimetry (μ-PIV) measurements of ensemble flow fields surrounding a steadily-migrating semi-infinite bubble through the novel adaptation of a computer controlled linear motor flow control system. The system was programmed to generate a square wave velocity input in order to produce accurate constant bubble propagation repeatedly and effectively through a fused glass capillary tube. We present a novel technique for re-positioning of the coordinate axis to the bubble tip frame of reference in each instantaneous field through the analysis of the sudden change of standard deviation of centerline velocity profiles across the bubble interface. Ensemble averages were then computed in this bubble tip frame of reference. Combined fluid systems of water/air, glycerol/air, and glycerol/Si-oil were used to investigate flows comparable to computational simulations described in Smith and Gaver (2008) and to past experimental observations of interfacial shape. Fluorescent particle images were also analyzed to measure the residual film thickness trailing behind the bubble. The flow fields and film thickness agree very well with the computational simulations as well as existing experimental and analytical results. Particle accumulation and migration associated with the flow patterns near the bubble tip after long experimental durations are discussed as potential sources of error in the experimental method.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1093136-image-change-detection-via-ensemble-learning','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1093136-image-change-detection-via-ensemble-learning"><span>Image Change Detection via Ensemble Learning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Martin, Benjamin W; Vatsavai, Raju</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The concept of geographic change detection is relevant in many areas. Changes in geography can reveal much information about a particular location. For example, analysis of changes in geography can identify regions of population growth, change in land use, and potential environmental disturbance. A common way to perform change detection is to use a simple method such as differencing to detect regions of change. Though these techniques are simple, often the application of these techniques is very limited. Recently, use of machine learning methods such as neural networks for change detection has been explored with great success. In this work,more » we explore the use of ensemble learning methodologies for detecting changes in bitemporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. Ensemble learning uses a collection of weak machine learning classifiers to create a stronger classifier which has higher accuracy than the individual classifiers in the ensemble. The strength of the ensemble lies in the fact that the individual classifiers in the ensemble create a mixture of experts in which the final classification made by the ensemble classifier is calculated from the outputs of the individual classifiers. Our methodology leverages this aspect of ensemble learning by training collections of weak decision tree based classifiers to identify regions of change in SAR images collected of a region in the Staten Island, New York area during Hurricane Sandy. Preliminary studies show that the ensemble method has approximately 11.5% higher change detection accuracy than an individual classifier.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/20636609-nonequilibrium-electromagnetics-local-macroscopic-fields-constitutive-relationships','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/20636609-nonequilibrium-electromagnetics-local-macroscopic-fields-constitutive-relationships"><span>Nonequilibrium electromagnetics: Local and macroscopic fields and constitutive relationships</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Baker-Jarvis, James; Kabos, Pavel; Holloway, Christopher L.</p> <p></p> <p>We study the electrodynamics of materials using a Liouville-Hamiltonian-based statistical-mechanical theory. Our goal is to develop electrodynamics from an ensemble-average viewpoint that is valid for microscopic and nonequilibrium systems at molecular to submolecular scales. This approach is not based on a Taylor series expansion of the charge density to obtain the multipoles. Instead, expressions of the molecular multipoles are used in an inverse problem to obtain the averaging statistical-density function that is used to obtain the macroscopic fields. The advantages of this method are that the averaging function is constructed in a self-consistent manner and the molecules can either bemore » treated as point multipoles or contain more microstructure. Expressions for the local and macroscopic fields are obtained, and evolution equations for the constitutive parameters are developed. We derive equations for the local field as functions of the applied, polarization, magnetization, strain density, and macroscopic fields.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18002695','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18002695"><span>Adaptive noise canceling of electrocardiogram artifacts in single channel electroencephalogram.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cho, Sung Pil; Song, Mi Hye; Park, Young Cheol; Choi, Ho Seon; Lee, Kyoung Joung</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>A new method for estimating and eliminating electrocardiogram (ECG) artifacts from single channel scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) is proposed. The proposed method consists of emphasis of QRS complex from EEG using least squares acceleration (LSA) filter, generation of synchronized pulse with R-peak and ECG artifacts estimation and elimination using adaptive filter. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated using simulated and real EEG recordings, we found that the ECG artifacts were successfully estimated and eliminated in comparison with the conventional multi-channel techniques, which are independent component analysis (ICA) and ensemble average (EA) method. From this we can conclude that the proposed method is useful for the detecting and eliminating the ECG artifacts from single channel EEG and simple to use for ambulatory/portable EEG monitoring system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1366301','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1366301"><span>EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei</p> <p></p> <p>We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based onmore » ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H53D1471W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H53D1471W"><span>Developing an approach to effectively use super ensemble experiments for the projection of hydrological extremes under climate change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate projections is corrected, and the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes is assessed in a cost-efficient way.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018HESS...22.2163L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018HESS...22.2163L"><span>Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liersch, Stefan; Tecklenburg, Julia; Rust, Henning; Dobler, Andreas; Fischer, Madlen; Kruschke, Tim; Koch, Hagen; Fokko Hattermann, Fred</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Climate simulations are the fuel to drive hydrological models that are used to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological parameters, such as river discharges, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Unlike with cars, where we know which fuel the engine requires, we never know in advance what unexpected side effects might be caused by the fuel we feed our models with. Sometimes we increase the fuel's octane number (bias correction) to achieve better performance and find out that the model behaves differently but not always as was expected or desired. This study investigates the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile catchment using two model ensembles consisting of five global CMIP5 Earth system models and 10 regional climate models (CORDEX Africa). WATCH forcing data were used to calibrate an eco-hydrological model and to bias-correct both model ensembles using slightly differing approaches. On the one hand it was found that the bias correction methods considerably improved the performance of average rainfall characteristics in the reference period (1970-1999) in most of the cases. This also holds true for non-extreme discharge conditions between Q20 and Q80. On the other hand, bias-corrected simulations tend to overemphasize magnitudes of projected change signals and extremes. A general weakness of both uncorrected and bias-corrected simulations is the rather poor representation of high and low flows and their extremes, which were often deteriorated by bias correction. This inaccuracy is a crucial deficiency for regional impact studies dealing with water management issues and it is therefore important to analyse model performance and characteristics and the effect of bias correction, and eventually to exclude some climate models from the ensemble. However, the multi-model means of all ensembles project increasing average annual discharges in the Upper Blue Nile catchment and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25012476','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25012476"><span>Impact of ensemble learning in the assessment of skeletal maturity.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cunha, Pedro; Moura, Daniel C; Guevara López, Miguel Angel; Guerra, Conceição; Pinto, Daniela; Ramos, Isabel</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>The assessment of the bone age, or skeletal maturity, is an important task in pediatrics that measures the degree of maturation of children's bones. Nowadays, there is no standard clinical procedure for assessing bone age and the most widely used approaches are the Greulich and Pyle and the Tanner and Whitehouse methods. Computer methods have been proposed to automatize the process; however, there is a lack of exploration about how to combine the features of the different parts of the hand, and how to take advantage of ensemble techniques for this purpose. This paper presents a study where the use of ensemble techniques for improving bone age assessment is evaluated. A new computer method was developed that extracts descriptors for each joint of each finger, which are then combined using different ensemble schemes for obtaining a final bone age value. Three popular ensemble schemes are explored in this study: bagging, stacking and voting. Best results were achieved by bagging with a rule-based regression (M5P), scoring a mean absolute error of 10.16 months. Results show that ensemble techniques improve the prediction performance of most of the evaluated regression algorithms, always achieving best or comparable to best results. Therefore, the success of the ensemble methods allow us to conclude that their use may improve computer-based bone age assessment, offering a scalable option for utilizing multiple regions of interest and combining their output.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_20 --> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28268487','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28268487"><span>Optimal weighted averaging of event related activity from acquisitions with artifacts.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Vollero, Luca; Petrichella, Sara; Innello, Giulio</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>In several biomedical applications that require the signal processing of biological data, the starting procedure for noise reduction is the ensemble averaging of multiple repeated acquisitions (trials). This method is based on the assumption that each trial is composed of two additive components: (i) a time-locked activity related to some sensitive/stimulation phenomenon (ERA, Event Related Activity in the following) and (ii) a sum of several other non time-locked background activities. The averaging aims at estimating the ERA activity under very low Signal to Noise and Interference Ratio (SNIR). Although averaging is a well established tool, its performance can be improved in the presence of high-power disturbances (artifacts) by a trials classification and removal stage. In this paper we propose, model and evaluate a new approach that avoids trials removal, managing trials classified as artifact-free and artifact-prone with two different weights. Based on the model, a weights tuning is possible and through modeling and simulations we show that, when optimally configured, the proposed solution outperforms classical approaches.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSV...428..119R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSV...428..119R"><span>Cross-frequency and band-averaged response variance prediction in the hybrid deterministic-statistical energy analysis method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Reynders, Edwin P. B.; Langley, Robin S.</p> <p>2018-08-01</p> <p>The hybrid deterministic-statistical energy analysis method has proven to be a versatile framework for modeling built-up vibro-acoustic systems. The stiff system components are modeled deterministically, e.g., using the finite element method, while the wave fields in the flexible components are modeled as diffuse. In the present paper, the hybrid method is extended such that not only the ensemble mean and variance of the harmonic system response can be computed, but also of the band-averaged system response. This variance represents the uncertainty that is due to the assumption of a diffuse field in the flexible components of the hybrid system. The developments start with a cross-frequency generalization of the reciprocity relationship between the total energy in a diffuse field and the cross spectrum of the blocked reverberant loading at the boundaries of that field. By making extensive use of this generalization in a first-order perturbation analysis, explicit expressions are derived for the cross-frequency and band-averaged variance of the vibrational energies in the diffuse components and for the cross-frequency and band-averaged variance of the cross spectrum of the vibro-acoustic field response of the deterministic components. These expressions are extensively validated against detailed Monte Carlo analyses of coupled plate systems in which diffuse fields are simulated by randomly distributing small point masses across the flexible components, and good agreement is found.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.4969V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.4969V"><span>Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>We develop post-processing or calibration approaches based on linear regression that make ensemble forecasts more reliable. We enforce climatological reliability in the sense that the total variability of the prediction is equal to the variability of the observations. Second, we impose ensemble reliability such that the spread around the ensemble mean of the observation coincides with the one of the ensemble members. In general the attractors of the model and reality are inhomogeneous. Therefore ensemble spread displays a variability not taken into account in standard post-processing methods. We overcome this by weighting the ensemble by a variable error. The approaches are tested in the context of the Lorenz 96 model (Lorenz 1996). The forecasts become more reliable at short lead times as reflected by a flatter rank histogram. Our best method turns out to be superior to well-established methods like EVMOS (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2011) and Nonhomogeneous Gaussian Regression (Gneiting et al., 2005). References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Lorenz, E. N., 1996: Predictability - a problem partly solved. Proceedings, Seminar on Predictability ECMWF. 1, 1-18. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2011: Post-processing through linear regression, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 147.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20085770','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20085770"><span>Lysine acetylation sites prediction using an ensemble of support vector machine classifiers.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Xu, Yan; Wang, Xiao-Bo; Ding, Jun; Wu, Ling-Yun; Deng, Nai-Yang</p> <p>2010-05-07</p> <p>Lysine acetylation is an essentially reversible and high regulated post-translational modification which regulates diverse protein properties. Experimental identification of acetylation sites is laborious and expensive. Hence, there is significant interest in the development of computational methods for reliable prediction of acetylation sites from amino acid sequences. In this paper we use an ensemble of support vector machine classifiers to perform this work. The experimentally determined acetylation lysine sites are extracted from Swiss-Prot database and scientific literatures. Experiment results show that an ensemble of support vector machine classifiers outperforms single support vector machine classifier and other computational methods such as PAIL and LysAcet on the problem of predicting acetylation lysine sites. The resulting method has been implemented in EnsemblePail, a web server for lysine acetylation sites prediction available at http://www.aporc.org/EnsemblePail/. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017IJSS...48.3334F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017IJSS...48.3334F"><span>A target recognition method for maritime surveillance radars based on hybrid ensemble selection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fan, Xueman; Hu, Shengliang; He, Jingbo</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>In order to improve the generalisation ability of the maritime surveillance radar, a novel ensemble selection technique, termed Optimisation and Dynamic Selection (ODS), is proposed. During the optimisation phase, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II for multi-objective optimisation is used to find the Pareto front, i.e. a set of ensembles of classifiers representing different tradeoffs between the classification error and diversity. During the dynamic selection phase, the meta-learning method is used to predict whether a candidate ensemble is competent enough to classify a query instance based on three different aspects, namely, feature space, decision space and the extent of consensus. The classification performance and time complexity of ODS are compared against nine other ensemble methods using a self-built full polarimetric high resolution range profile data-set. The experimental results clearly show the effectiveness of ODS. In addition, the influence of the selection of diversity measures is studied concurrently.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3524795','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3524795"><span>Modelling dynamics in protein crystal structures by ensemble refinement</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Burnley, B Tom; Afonine, Pavel V; Adams, Paul D; Gros, Piet</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Single-structure models derived from X-ray data do not adequately account for the inherent, functionally important dynamics of protein molecules. We generated ensembles of structures by time-averaged refinement, where local molecular vibrations were sampled by molecular-dynamics (MD) simulation whilst global disorder was partitioned into an underlying overall translation–libration–screw (TLS) model. Modeling of 20 protein datasets at 1.1–3.1 Å resolution reduced cross-validated Rfree values by 0.3–4.9%, indicating that ensemble models fit the X-ray data better than single structures. The ensembles revealed that, while most proteins display a well-ordered core, some proteins exhibit a ‘molten core’ likely supporting functionally important dynamics in ligand binding, enzyme activity and protomer assembly. Order–disorder changes in HIV protease indicate a mechanism of entropy compensation for ordering the catalytic residues upon ligand binding by disordering specific core residues. Thus, ensemble refinement extracts dynamical details from the X-ray data that allow a more comprehensive understanding of structure–dynamics–function relationships. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00311.001 PMID:23251785</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1334906-selecting-classification-ensemble-detecting-process-drift-evolving-data-stream','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1334906-selecting-classification-ensemble-detecting-process-drift-evolving-data-stream"><span>Selecting a Classification Ensemble and Detecting Process Drift in an Evolving Data Stream</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Heredia-Langner, Alejandro; Rodriguez, Luke R.; Lin, Andy</p> <p>2015-09-30</p> <p>We characterize the commercial behavior of a group of companies in a common line of business using a small ensemble of classifiers on a stream of records containing commercial activity information. This approach is able to effectively find a subset of classifiers that can be used to predict company labels with reasonable accuracy. Performance of the ensemble, its error rate under stable conditions, can be characterized using an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic. The behavior of the EWMA statistic can be used to monitor a record stream from the commercial network and determine when significant changes have occurred. Resultsmore » indicate that larger classification ensembles may not necessarily be optimal, pointing to the need to search the combinatorial classifier space in a systematic way. Results also show that current and past performance of an ensemble can be used to detect when statistically significant changes in the activity of the network have occurred. The dataset used in this work contains tens of thousands of high level commercial activity records with continuous and categorical variables and hundreds of labels, making classification challenging.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012SPIE.8315E..2QR','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012SPIE.8315E..2QR"><span>Active relearning for robust supervised classification of pulmonary emphysema</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Raghunath, Sushravya; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.; Robb, Richard A.</p> <p>2012-03-01</p> <p>Radiologists are adept at recognizing the appearance of lung parenchymal abnormalities in CT scans. However, the inconsistent differential diagnosis, due to subjective aggregation, mandates supervised classification. Towards optimizing Emphysema classification, we introduce a physician-in-the-loop feedback approach in order to minimize uncertainty in the selected training samples. Using multi-view inductive learning with the training samples, an ensemble of Support Vector Machine (SVM) models, each based on a specific pair-wise dissimilarity metric, was constructed in less than six seconds. In the active relearning phase, the ensemble-expert label conflicts were resolved by an expert. This just-in-time feedback with unoptimized SVMs yielded 15% increase in classification accuracy and 25% reduction in the number of support vectors. The generality of relearning was assessed in the optimized parameter space of six different classifiers across seven dissimilarity metrics. The resultant average accuracy improved to 21%. The co-operative feedback method proposed here could enhance both diagnostic and staging throughput efficiency in chest radiology practice.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28611583','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28611583"><span>Pattern Recognition of Momentary Mental Workload Based on Multi-Channel Electrophysiological Data and Ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Jianhua; Li, Sunan; Wang, Rubin</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>In this paper, we deal with the Mental Workload (MWL) classification problem based on the measured physiological data. First we discussed the optimal depth (i.e., the number of hidden layers) and parameter optimization algorithms for the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). The base CNNs designed were tested according to five classification performance indices, namely Accuracy, Precision, F-measure, G-mean, and required training time. Then we developed an Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network (ECNN) to enhance the accuracy and robustness of the individual CNN model. For the ECNN design, three model aggregation approaches (weighted averaging, majority voting and stacking) were examined and a resampling strategy was used to enhance the diversity of individual CNN models. The results of MWL classification performance comparison indicated that the proposed ECNN framework can effectively improve MWL classification performance and is featured by entirely automatic feature extraction and MWL classification, when compared with traditional machine learning methods.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvB..97t5110Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvB..97t5110Y"><span>Learning disordered topological phases by statistical recovery of symmetry</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yoshioka, Nobuyuki; Akagi, Yutaka; Katsura, Hosho</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>We apply the artificial neural network in a supervised manner to map out the quantum phase diagram of disordered topological superconductors in class DIII. Given the disorder that keeps the discrete symmetries of the ensemble as a whole, translational symmetry which is broken in the quasiparticle distribution individually is recovered statistically by taking an ensemble average. By using this, we classify the phases by the artificial neural network that learned the quasiparticle distribution in the clean limit and show that the result is totally consistent with the calculation by the transfer matrix method or noncommutative geometry approach. If all three phases, namely the Z2, trivial, and thermal metal phases, appear in the clean limit, the machine can classify them with high confidence over the entire phase diagram. If only the former two phases are present, we find that the machine remains confused in a certain region, leading us to conclude the detection of the unknown phase which is eventually identified as the thermal metal phase.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.6256S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.6256S"><span>A comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches that preserve correlation structures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schefzik, Roman; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Despite the fact that ensemble forecasts address the major sources of uncertainty, they exhibit biases and dispersion errors and therefore are known to improve by calibration or statistical post-processing. For instance the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method, also known as non-homogeneous regression approach (Gneiting et al., 2005) is known to strongly improve forecast skill. EMOS is based on fitting and adjusting a parametric probability density function (PDF). However, EMOS and other common post-processing approaches apply to a single weather quantity at a single location for a single look-ahead time. They are therefore unable of taking into account spatial, inter-variable and temporal dependence structures. Recently many research efforts have been invested in designing post-processing methods that resolve this drawback but also in verification methods that enable the detection of dependence structures. New verification methods are applied on two classes of post-processing methods, both generating physically coherent ensembles. A first class uses the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) that starts from EMOS but adjusts the rank structure (Schefzik et al., 2013). The second class is a member-by-member post-processing (MBM) approach that maps each raw ensemble member to a corrected one (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015). We compare variants of the EMOS-ECC and MBM classes and highlight a specific theoretical connection between them. All post-processing variants are applied in the context of the ensemble system of the European Centre of Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and compared using multivariate verification tools including the energy score, the variogram score (Scheuerer and Hamill, 2015) and the band depth rank histogram (Thorarinsdottir et al., 2015). Gneiting, Raftery, Westveld, and Goldman, 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Wea. Rev., {133}, 1098-1118. Scheuerer and Hamill, 2015. Variogram-based proper scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities. Mon. Wea. Rev. {143},1321-1334. Schefzik, Thorarinsdottir, Gneiting. Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling. Statistical Science {28},616-640, 2013. Thorarinsdottir, M. Scheuerer, and C. Heinz, 2015. Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histograms, arXiv:1310.0236. Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141: 807-818.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26356979','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26356979"><span>Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015IJMPB..2950235C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015IJMPB..2950235C"><span>Desynchronization in an ensemble of globally coupled chaotic bursting neuronal oscillators by dynamic delayed feedback control</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Che, Yanqiu; Yang, Tingting; Li, Ruixue; Li, Huiyan; Han, Chunxiao; Wang, Jiang; Wei, Xile</p> <p>2015-09-01</p> <p>In this paper, we propose a dynamic delayed feedback control approach or desynchronization of chaotic-bursting synchronous activities in an ensemble of globally coupled neuronal oscillators. We demonstrate that the difference signal between an ensemble's mean field and its time delayed state, filtered and fed back to the ensemble, can suppress the self-synchronization in the ensemble. These individual units are decoupled and stabilized at the desired desynchronized states while the stimulation signal reduces to the noise level. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated by examples of two different populations of globally coupled chaotic-bursting neurons. The proposed method has potential for mild, effective and demand-controlled therapy of neurological diseases characterized by pathological synchronization.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1329576-designing-free-energy-surfaces-match-experimental-data-metadynamics','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1329576-designing-free-energy-surfaces-match-experimental-data-metadynamics"><span>Designing Free Energy Surfaces That Match Experimental Data with Metadynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>White, Andrew D.; Dama, James F.; Voth, Gregory A.</p> <p>2015-04-30</p> <p>Creating models that are consistent with experimental data is essential in molecular modeling. This is often done by iteratively tuning the molecular force field of a simulation to match experimental data. An alternative method is to bias a simulation, leading to a hybrid model composed of the original force field and biasing terms. Previously we introduced such a method called experiment directed simulation (EDS). EDS minimally biases simulations to match average values. We also introduce a new method called experiment directed metadynamics (EDM) that creates minimal biases for matching entire free energy surfaces such as radial distribution functions and phi/psimore » angle free energies. It is also possible with EDM to create a tunable mixture of the experimental data and free energy of the unbiased ensemble with explicit ratios. EDM can be proven to be convergent, and we also present proof, via a maximum entropy argument, that the final bias is minimal and unique. Examples of its use are given in the construction of ensembles that follow a desired free energy. Finally, the example systems studied include a Lennard-Jones fluid made to match a radial distribution function, an atomistic model augmented with bioinformatics data, and a three-component electrolyte solution where ab initio simulation data is used to improve a classical empirical model.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26575545','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26575545"><span>Designing free energy surfaces that match experimental data with metadynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>White, Andrew D; Dama, James F; Voth, Gregory A</p> <p>2015-06-09</p> <p>Creating models that are consistent with experimental data is essential in molecular modeling. This is often done by iteratively tuning the molecular force field of a simulation to match experimental data. An alternative method is to bias a simulation, leading to a hybrid model composed of the original force field and biasing terms. We previously introduced such a method called experiment directed simulation (EDS). EDS minimally biases simulations to match average values. In this work, we introduce a new method called experiment directed metadynamics (EDM) that creates minimal biases for matching entire free energy surfaces such as radial distribution functions and phi/psi angle free energies. It is also possible with EDM to create a tunable mixture of the experimental data and free energy of the unbiased ensemble with explicit ratios. EDM can be proven to be convergent, and we also present proof, via a maximum entropy argument, that the final bias is minimal and unique. Examples of its use are given in the construction of ensembles that follow a desired free energy. The example systems studied include a Lennard-Jones fluid made to match a radial distribution function, an atomistic model augmented with bioinformatics data, and a three-component electrolyte solution where ab initio simulation data is used to improve a classical empirical model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29051918','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29051918"><span>Effects of ensemble and summary displays on interpretations of geospatial uncertainty data.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Padilla, Lace M; Ruginski, Ian T; Creem-Regehr, Sarah H</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Ensemble and summary displays are two widely used methods to represent visual-spatial uncertainty; however, there is disagreement about which is the most effective technique to communicate uncertainty to the general public. Visualization scientists create ensemble displays by plotting multiple data points on the same Cartesian coordinate plane. Despite their use in scientific practice, it is more common in public presentations to use visualizations of summary displays, which scientists create by plotting statistical parameters of the ensemble members. While prior work has demonstrated that viewers make different decisions when viewing summary and ensemble displays, it is unclear what components of the displays lead to diverging judgments. This study aims to compare the salience of visual features - or visual elements that attract bottom-up attention - as one possible source of diverging judgments made with ensemble and summary displays in the context of hurricane track forecasts. We report that salient visual features of both ensemble and summary displays influence participant judgment. Specifically, we find that salient features of summary displays of geospatial uncertainty can be misunderstood as displaying size information. Further, salient features of ensemble displays evoke judgments that are indicative of accurate interpretations of the underlying probability distribution of the ensemble data. However, when participants use ensemble displays to make point-based judgments, they may overweight individual ensemble members in their decision-making process. We propose that ensemble displays are a promising alternative to summary displays in a geospatial context but that decisions about visualization methods should be informed by the viewer's task.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015APS..DFDR31008S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015APS..DFDR31008S"><span>Measurements of wind-waves under transient wind conditions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shemer, Lev; Zavadsky, Andrey</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>Wind forcing in nature is always unsteady, resulting in a complicated evolution pattern that involves numerous time and space scales. In the present work, wind waves in a laboratory wind-wave flume are studied under unsteady forcing`. The variation of the surface elevation is measured by capacitance wave gauges, while the components of the instantaneous surface slope in across-wind and along-wind directions are determined by a regular or scanning laser slope gauge. The locations of the wave gauge and of the laser slope gauge are separated by few centimeters in across-wind direction. Instantaneous wind velocity was recorded simultaneously using Pitot tube. Measurements are performed at a number of fetches and for different patterns of wind velocity variation. For each case, at least 100 independent realizations were recorded for a given wind velocity variation pattern. The accumulated data sets allow calculating ensemble-averaged values of the measured parameters. Significant differences between the evolution patterns of the surface elevation and of the slope components were found. Wavelet analysis was applied to determine dominant wave frequency of the surface elevation and of the slope variation at each instant. Corresponding ensemble-averaged values acquired by different sensors were computed and compared. Analysis of the measured ensemble-averaged quantities at different fetches makes it possible to identify different stages in the wind-wave evolution and to estimate the appropriate time and length scales.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23049168','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23049168"><span>A translating stage system for µ-PIV measurements surrounding the tip of a migrating semi-infinite bubble.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Smith, B J; Yamaguchi, E; Gaver, D P</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>We have designed, fabricated and evaluated a novel translating stage system (TSS) that augments a conventional micro particle image velocimetry (µ-PIV) system. The TSS has been used to enhance the ability to measure flow fields surrounding the tip of a migrating semi-infinite bubble in a glass capillary tube under both steady and pulsatile reopening conditions. With conventional µ-PIV systems, observations near the bubble tip are challenging because the forward progress of the bubble rapidly sweeps the air-liquid interface across the microscopic field of view. The translating stage mechanically cancels the mean bubble tip velocity, keeping the interface within the microscope field of view and providing a tenfold increase in data collection efficiency compared to fixed-stage techniques. This dramatic improvement allows nearly continuous observation of the flow field over long propagation distances. A large (136-frame) ensemble-averaged velocity field recorded with the TSS near the tip of a steadily migrating bubble is shown to compare well with fixed-stage results under identical flow conditions. Use of the TSS allows the ensemble-averaged measurement of pulsatile bubble propagation flow fields, which would be practically impossible using conventional fixed-stage techniques. We demonstrate our ability to analyze these time-dependent two-phase flows using the ensemble-averaged flow field at four points in the oscillatory cycle.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6912541-interactions-between-moist-heating-dynamics-atmospheric-predictability','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6912541-interactions-between-moist-heating-dynamics-atmospheric-predictability"><span>Interactions between moist heating and dynamics in atmospheric predictability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Straus, D.M.; Huntley, M.A.</p> <p>1994-02-01</p> <p>The predictability properties of a fixed heating version of a GCM in which the moist heating is specified beforehand are studied in a series of identical twin experiments. Comparison is made to an identical set of experiments using the control GCM, a five-level R30 version of the COLA GCM. The experiments each contain six ensembles, with a single ensemble consisting of six 30-day integrations starting from slightly perturbed Northern Hemisphere wintertime initial conditions. The moist heating from each integration within a single control ensemble was averaged over the ensemble. This averaged heating (a function of three spatial dimensions and time)more » was used as the prespecified heating in each member of the corresponding fixed heating ensemble. The errors grow less rapidly in the fixed heating case. The most rapidly growing scales at small times (global wavenumber 6) have doubling times of 3.2 days compared to 2.4 days for the control experiments. The predictability times for the most energetic scales (global wavenumbers 9-12) are about two weeks for the fixed heating experiments, compared to 9 days for the control. The ratio of error energy in the fixed heating to the control case falls below 0.5 by day 8, and then gradually increases as the error growth slows in the control case. The growth of errors is described in terms of budgets of error kinetic energy (EKE) and error available potential energy (EAPE) developed in terms of global wavenumber n. The diabatic generation of EAPE (G[sub APE]) is positive in the control case and is dominated by midlatitude heating errors after day 2. The fixed heating G[sub APE] is negative at all times due to longwave radiative cooling. 36 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JGRD..117.5309L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JGRD..117.5309L"><span>Simultaneous assimilation of AIRS Xco2 and meteorological observations in a carbon climate model with an ensemble Kalman filter</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Junjie; Fung, Inez; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kang, Ji-Sun; Olsen, Edward T.; Chen, Luke</p> <p>2012-03-01</p> <p>This study is our first step toward the generation of 6 hourly 3-D CO2 fields that can be used to validate CO2 forecast models by combining CO2 observations from multiple sources using ensemble Kalman filtering. We discuss a procedure to assimilate Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2 (Xco2) in conjunction with meteorological observations with the coupled Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF)-Community Atmospheric Model version 3.5. We examine the impact of assimilating AIRS Xco2 observations on CO2 fields by comparing the results from the AIRS-run, which assimilates both AIRS Xco2 and meteorological observations, to those from the meteor-run, which only assimilates meteorological observations. We find that assimilating AIRS Xco2 results in a surface CO2 seasonal cycle and the N-S surface gradient closer to the observations. When taking account of the CO2 uncertainty estimation from the LETKF, the CO2 analysis brackets the observed seasonal cycle. Verification against independent aircraft observations shows that assimilating AIRS Xco2 improves the accuracy of the CO2 vertical profiles by about 0.5-2 ppm depending on location and altitude. The results show that the CO2 analysis ensemble spread at AIRS Xco2 space is between 0.5 and 2 ppm, and the CO2 analysis ensemble spread around the peak level of the averaging kernels is between 1 and 2 ppm. This uncertainty estimation is consistent with the magnitude of the CO2 analysis error verified against AIRS Xco2 observations and the independent aircraft CO2 vertical profiles.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_21 --> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24483403','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24483403"><span>Transient aging in fractional Brownian and Langevin-equation motion.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kursawe, Jochen; Schulz, Johannes; Metzler, Ralf</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Stochastic processes driven by stationary fractional Gaussian noise, that is, fractional Brownian motion and fractional Langevin-equation motion, are usually considered to be ergodic in the sense that, after an algebraic relaxation, time and ensemble averages of physical observables coincide. Recently it was demonstrated that fractional Brownian motion and fractional Langevin-equation motion under external confinement are transiently nonergodic-time and ensemble averages behave differently-from the moment when the particle starts to sense the confinement. Here we show that these processes also exhibit transient aging, that is, physical observables such as the time-averaged mean-squared displacement depend on the time lag between the initiation of the system at time t=0 and the start of the measurement at the aging time t(a). In particular, it turns out that for fractional Langevin-equation motion the aging dependence on t(a) is different between the cases of free and confined motion. We obtain explicit analytical expressions for the aged moments of the particle position as well as the time-averaged mean-squared displacement and present a numerical analysis of this transient aging phenomenon.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25866658','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25866658"><span>Advanced ensemble modelling of flexible macromolecules using X-ray solution scattering.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tria, Giancarlo; Mertens, Haydyn D T; Kachala, Michael; Svergun, Dmitri I</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>Dynamic ensembles of macromolecules mediate essential processes in biology. Understanding the mechanisms driving the function and molecular interactions of 'unstructured' and flexible molecules requires alternative approaches to those traditionally employed in structural biology. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is an established method for structural characterization of biological macromolecules in solution, and is directly applicable to the study of flexible systems such as intrinsically disordered proteins and multi-domain proteins with unstructured regions. The Ensemble Optimization Method (EOM) [Bernadó et al. (2007 ▶). J. Am. Chem. Soc. 129, 5656-5664] was the first approach introducing the concept of ensemble fitting of the SAXS data from flexible systems. In this approach, a large pool of macromolecules covering the available conformational space is generated and a sub-ensemble of conformers coexisting in solution is selected guided by the fit to the experimental SAXS data. This paper presents a series of new developments and advancements to the method, including significantly enhanced functionality and also quantitative metrics for the characterization of the results. Building on the original concept of ensemble optimization, the algorithms for pool generation have been redesigned to allow for the construction of partially or completely symmetric oligomeric models, and the selection procedure was improved to refine the size of the ensemble. Quantitative measures of the flexibility of the system studied, based on the characteristic integral parameters of the selected ensemble, are introduced. These improvements are implemented in the new EOM version 2.0, and the capabilities as well as inherent limitations of the ensemble approach in SAXS, and of EOM 2.0 in particular, are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JMPSo.106...95B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JMPSo.106...95B"><span>A continuum theory of edge dislocations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Berdichevsky, V. L.</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Continuum theory of dislocation aims to describe the behavior of large ensembles of dislocations. This task is far from completion, and, most likely, does not have a "universal solution", which is applicable to any dislocation ensemble. In this regards it is important to have guiding lines set by benchmark cases, where the transition from a discrete set of dislocations to a continuum description is made rigorously. Two such cases have been considered recently: equilibrium of dislocation walls and screw dislocations in beams. In this paper one more case is studied, equilibrium of a large set of 2D edge dislocations placed randomly in a 2D bounded region. The major characteristic of interest is energy of dislocation ensemble, because it determines the structure of continuum equations. The homogenized energy functional is obtained for the periodic dislocation ensembles with a random contents of the periodic cell. Parameters of the periodic structure can change slowly on distances of order of the size of periodic cells. The energy functional is obtained by the variational-asymptotic method. Equilibrium positions are local minima of energy. It is confirmed the earlier assertion that energy density of the system is the sum of elastic energy of averaged elastic strains and microstructure energy, which is elastic energy of the neutralized dislocation system, i.e. the dislocation system placed in a constant dislocation density field making the averaged dislocation density zero. The computation of energy is reduced to solution of a variational cell problem. This problem is solved analytically. The solution is used to investigate stability of simple dislocation arrays, i.e. arrays with one dislocation in the periodic cell. The relations obtained yield two outcomes: First, there is a state parameter of the system, dislocation polarization; averaged stresses affect only dislocation polarization and cannot change other characteristics of the system. Second, the structure of dislocation phase space is strikingly simple. Dislocation phase space is split in a family of subspaces corresponding to constant values of dislocation polarizations; in each equipolarization subspace there are many local minima of energy; for zero external stresses the system is stuck in a local minimum of energy; for non-zero slowly changing external stress, dislocation polarization evolves, while the system moves over local energy minima of equipolarization subspaces. Such a simple picture of dislocation dynamics is due to the presence of two time scales, slow evolution of dislocation polarization and fast motion of the system over local minima of energy. The existence of two time scales is justified for a neutral system of edge dislocations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH41A0147T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH41A0147T"><span>Comparative assessment of several post-processing methods for correcting evapotranspiration forecasts derived from TIGGE datasets.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tian, D.; Medina, H.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Post-processing of medium range reference evapotranspiration (ETo) forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has the potential of improving the quality and utility of these forecasts. This work compares the performance of several post-processing methods for correcting ETo forecasts over the continental U.S. generated from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database using data from Europe (EC), the United Kingdom (MO), and the United States (NCEP). The pondered post-processing techniques are: simple bias correction, the use of multimodels, the Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS, Gneitting et al., 2005) and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, Raftery et al., 2005). ETo estimates based on quality-controlled U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network measurements, and computed with the FAO 56 Penman Monteith equation, are adopted as baseline. EMOS and BMA are generally the most efficient post-processing techniques of the ETo forecasts. Nevertheless, the simple bias correction of the best model is commonly much more rewarding than using multimodel raw forecasts. Our results demonstrate the potential of different forecasting and post-processing frameworks in operational evapotranspiration and irrigation advisory systems at national scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24174539','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24174539"><span>pE-DB: a database of structural ensembles of intrinsically disordered and of unfolded proteins.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Varadi, Mihaly; Kosol, Simone; Lebrun, Pierre; Valentini, Erica; Blackledge, Martin; Dunker, A Keith; Felli, Isabella C; Forman-Kay, Julie D; Kriwacki, Richard W; Pierattelli, Roberta; Sussman, Joel; Svergun, Dmitri I; Uversky, Vladimir N; Vendruscolo, Michele; Wishart, David; Wright, Peter E; Tompa, Peter</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The goal of pE-DB (http://pedb.vib.be) is to serve as an openly accessible database for the deposition of structural ensembles of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) and of denatured proteins based on nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, small-angle X-ray scattering and other data measured in solution. Owing to the inherent flexibility of IDPs, solution techniques are particularly appropriate for characterizing their biophysical properties, and structural ensembles in agreement with these data provide a convenient tool for describing the underlying conformational sampling. Database entries consist of (i) primary experimental data with descriptions of the acquisition methods and algorithms used for the ensemble calculations, and (ii) the structural ensembles consistent with these data, provided as a set of models in a Protein Data Bank format. PE-DB is open for submissions from the community, and is intended as a forum for disseminating the structural ensembles and the methodologies used to generate them. While the need to represent the IDP structures is clear, methods for determining and evaluating the structural ensembles are still evolving. The availability of the pE-DB database is expected to promote the development of new modeling methods and leads to a better understanding of how function arises from disordered states.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24783410','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24783410"><span>Comparing ensemble learning methods based on decision tree classifiers for protein fold recognition.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bardsiri, Mahshid Khatibi; Eftekhari, Mahdi</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>In this paper, some methods for ensemble learning of protein fold recognition based on a decision tree (DT) are compared and contrasted against each other over three datasets taken from the literature. According to previously reported studies, the features of the datasets are divided into some groups. Then, for each of these groups, three ensemble classifiers, namely, random forest, rotation forest and AdaBoost.M1 are employed. Also, some fusion methods are introduced for combining the ensemble classifiers obtained in the previous step. After this step, three classifiers are produced based on the combination of classifiers of types random forest, rotation forest and AdaBoost.M1. Finally, the three different classifiers achieved are combined to make an overall classifier. Experimental results show that the overall classifier obtained by the genetic algorithm (GA) weighting fusion method, is the best one in comparison to previously applied methods in terms of classification accuracy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H32F..01B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H32F..01B"><span>Revealing Risks in Adaptation Planning: expanding Uncertainty Treatment and dealing with Large Projection Ensembles during Planning Scenario development</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Wood, A.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Adaptation planning assessments often rely on single methods for climate projection downscaling and hydrologic analysis, do not reveal uncertainties from associated method choices, and thus likely produce overly confident decision-support information. Recent work by the authors has highlighted this issue by identifying strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic impacts. This work has shown that many of the methodological choices made can alter the magnitude, and even the sign of the climate change signal. Such results motivate consideration of both sources of method uncertainty within an impacts assessment. Consequently, the authors have pursued development of improved downscaling techniques spanning a range of method classes (quasi-dynamical and circulation-based statistical methods) and developed approaches to better account for hydrologic analysis uncertainty (multi-model; regional parameter estimation under forcing uncertainty). This presentation summarizes progress in the development of these methods, as well as implications of pursuing these developments. First, having access to these methods creates an opportunity to better reveal impacts uncertainty through multi-method ensembles, expanding on present-practice ensembles which are often based only on emissions scenarios and GCM choices. Second, such expansion of uncertainty treatment combined with an ever-expanding wealth of global climate projection information creates a challenge of how to use such a large ensemble for local adaptation planning. To address this challenge, the authors are evaluating methods for ensemble selection (considering the principles of fidelity, diversity and sensitivity) that is compatible with present-practice approaches for abstracting change scenarios from any "ensemble of opportunity". Early examples from this development will also be presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28708399','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28708399"><span>Development and Validation of a Computational Model Ensemble for the Early Detection of BCRP/ABCG2 Substrates during the Drug Design Stage.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Gantner, Melisa E; Peroni, Roxana N; Morales, Juan F; Villalba, María L; Ruiz, María E; Talevi, Alan</p> <p>2017-08-28</p> <p>Breast Cancer Resistance Protein (BCRP) is an ATP-dependent efflux transporter linked to the multidrug resistance phenomenon in many diseases such as epilepsy and cancer and a potential source of drug interactions. For these reasons, the early identification of substrates and nonsubstrates of this transporter during the drug discovery stage is of great interest. We have developed a computational nonlinear model ensemble based on conformational independent molecular descriptors using a combined strategy of genetic algorithms, J48 decision tree classifiers, and data fusion. The best model ensemble consists in averaging the ranking of the 12 decision trees that showed the best performance on the training set, which also demonstrated a good performance for the test set. It was experimentally validated using the ex vivo everted rat intestinal sac model. Five anticonvulsant drugs classified as nonsubstrates for BRCP by the model ensemble were experimentally evaluated, and none of them proved to be a BCRP substrate under the experimental conditions used, thus confirming the predictive ability of the model ensemble. The model ensemble reported here is a potentially valuable tool to be used as an in silico ADME filter in computer-aided drug discovery campaigns intended to overcome BCRP-mediated multidrug resistance issues and to prevent drug-drug interactions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......436B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......436B"><span>Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bhuiyan, A. M.</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20110013169&hterms=Coding&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3DCoding','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20110013169&hterms=Coding&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3DCoding"><span>The Limits of Coding with Joint Constraints on Detected and Undetected Error Rates</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Dolinar, Sam; Andrews, Kenneth; Pollara, Fabrizio; Divsalar, Dariush</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>We develop a remarkably tight upper bound on the performance of a parameterized family of bounded angle maximum-likelihood (BA-ML) incomplete decoders. The new bound for this class of incomplete decoders is calculated from the code's weight enumerator, and is an extension of Poltyrev-type bounds developed for complete ML decoders. This bound can also be applied to bound the average performance of random code ensembles in terms of an ensemble average weight enumerator. We also formulate conditions defining a parameterized family of optimal incomplete decoders, defined to minimize both the total codeword error probability and the undetected error probability for any fixed capability of the decoder to detect errors. We illustrate the gap between optimal and BA-ML incomplete decoding via simulation of a small code.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780063736&hterms=self+expansion+theory&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dself%2Bexpansion%2Btheory','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780063736&hterms=self+expansion+theory&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dself%2Bexpansion%2Btheory"><span>A strictly Markovian expansion for plasma turbulence theory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Jones, F. C.</p> <p>1978-01-01</p> <p>The collision operator that appears in the equation of motion for a particle distribution function that has been averaged over an ensemble of random Hamiltonians is non-Markovian. It is non-Markovian in that it involves a propagated integral over the past history of the ensemble averaged distribution function. All formal expansions of this nonlinear collision operator to date preserve this non-Markovian character term by term yielding an integro-differential equation that must be converted to a diffusion equation by an additional approximation. In this note we derive an expansion of the collision operator that is strictly Markovian to any finite order and yields a diffusion equation as the lowest non-trivial order. The validity of this expansion is seen to be the same as that of the standard quasi-linear expansion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvL.120h4101T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvL.120h4101T"><span>Robustness of Synchrony in Complex Networks and Generalized Kirchhoff Indices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tyloo, M.; Coletta, T.; Jacquod, Ph.</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>In network theory, a question of prime importance is how to assess network vulnerability in a fast and reliable manner. With this issue in mind, we investigate the response to external perturbations of coupled dynamical systems on complex networks. We find that for specific, nonaveraged perturbations, the response of synchronous states depends on the eigenvalues of the stability matrix of the unperturbed dynamics, as well as on its eigenmodes via their overlap with the perturbation vector. Once averaged over properly defined ensembles of perturbations, the response is given by new graph topological indices, which we introduce as generalized Kirchhoff indices. These findings allow for a fast and reliable method for assessing the specific or average vulnerability of a network against changing operational conditions, faults, or external attacks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28378911','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28378911"><span>Fast de novo discovery of low-energy protein loop conformations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wong, Samuel W K; Liu, Jun S; Kou, S C</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>In the prediction of protein structure from amino acid sequence, loops are challenging regions for computational methods. Since loops are often located on the protein surface, they can have significant roles in determining protein functions and binding properties. Loop prediction without the aid of a structural template requires extensive conformational sampling and energy minimization, which are computationally difficult. In this article we present a new de novo loop sampling method, the Parallely filtered Energy Targeted All-atom Loop Sampler (PETALS) to rapidly locate low energy conformations. PETALS explores both backbone and side-chain positions of the loop region simultaneously according to the energy function selected by the user, and constructs a nonredundant ensemble of low energy loop conformations using filtering criteria. The method is illustrated with the DFIRE potential and DiSGro energy function for loops, and shown to be highly effective at discovering conformations with near-native (or better) energy. Using the same energy function as the DiSGro algorithm, PETALS samples conformations with both lower RMSDs and lower energies. PETALS is also useful for assessing the accuracy of different energy functions. PETALS runs rapidly, requiring an average time cost of 10 minutes for a length 12 loop on a single 3.2 GHz processor core, comparable to the fastest existing de novo methods for generating an ensemble of conformations. Proteins 2017; 85:1402-1412. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1037814','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1037814"><span>Algorithms that Defy the Gravity of Learning Curve</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2017-04-28</p> <p>three nearest neighbour-based anomaly detectors, i.e., an ensemble of nearest neigh- bours, a recent nearest neighbour-based ensemble method called iNNE...streams. Note that the change in sample size does not alter the geometrical data characteristics discussed here. 3.1 Experimental Methodology ...need to be answered. 3.6 Comparison with conventional ensemble methods Given the theoretical results, the third aim of this project (i.e., identify the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JPhCS1008a2009S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JPhCS1008a2009S"><span>Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4415763','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4415763"><span>A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Lindström, Tom; Tildesley, Michael; Webb, Colleen</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Mathematical models are powerful tools for epidemiology and can be used to compare control actions. However, different models and model parameterizations may provide different prediction of outcomes. In other fields of research, ensemble modeling has been used to combine multiple projections. We explore the possibility of applying such methods to epidemiology by adapting Bayesian techniques developed for climate forecasting. We exemplify the implementation with single model ensembles based on different parameterizations of the Warwick model run for the 2001 United Kingdom foot and mouth disease outbreak and compare the efficacy of different control actions. This allows us to investigate the effect that discrepancy among projections based on different modeling assumptions has on the ensemble prediction. A sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of prior can have a pronounced effect on the posterior estimates of quantities of interest, in particular for ensembles with large discrepancy among projections. However, by using a hierarchical extension of the method we show that prior sensitivity can be circumvented. We further extend the method to include a priori beliefs about different modeling assumptions and demonstrate that the effect of this can have different consequences depending on the discrepancy among projections. We propose that the method is a promising analytical tool for ensemble modeling of disease outbreaks. PMID:25927892</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27256383','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27256383"><span>Single Molecule Approaches in RNA-Protein Interactions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Serebrov, Victor; Moore, Melissa J</p> <p></p> <p>RNA-protein interactions govern every aspect of RNA metabolism, and aberrant RNA-binding proteins are the cause of hundreds of genetic diseases. Quantitative measurements of these interactions are necessary in order to understand mechanisms leading to diseases and to develop efficient therapies. Existing methods of RNA-protein interactome capture can afford a comprehensive snapshot of RNA-protein interaction networks but lack the ability to characterize the dynamics of these interactions. As all ensemble methods, their resolution is also limited by statistical averaging. Here we discuss recent advances in single molecule techniques that have the potential to tackle these challenges. We also provide a thorough overview of single molecule colocalization microscopy and the essential protein and RNA tagging and detection techniques.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1853h0004L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1853h0004L"><span>A probability space for quantum models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lemmens, L. F.</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26660692','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26660692"><span>Automatic Estimation of Osteoporotic Fracture Cases by Using Ensemble Learning Approaches.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kilic, Niyazi; Hosgormez, Erkan</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>Ensemble learning methods are one of the most powerful tools for the pattern classification problems. In this paper, the effects of ensemble learning methods and some physical bone densitometry parameters on osteoporotic fracture detection were investigated. Six feature set models were constructed including different physical parameters and they fed into the ensemble classifiers as input features. As ensemble learning techniques, bagging, gradient boosting and random subspace (RSM) were used. Instance based learning (IBk) and random forest (RF) classifiers applied to six feature set models. The patients were classified into three groups such as osteoporosis, osteopenia and control (healthy), using ensemble classifiers. Total classification accuracy and f-measure were also used to evaluate diagnostic performance of the proposed ensemble classification system. The classification accuracy has reached to 98.85 % by the combination of model 6 (five BMD + five T-score values) using RSM-RF classifier. The findings of this paper suggest that the patients will be able to be warned before a bone fracture occurred, by just examining some physical parameters that can easily be measured without invasive operations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17..628B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17..628B"><span>One-day-ahead streamflow forecasting via super-ensembles of several neural network architectures based on the Multi-Level Diversity Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brochero, Darwin; Hajji, Islem; Pina, Jasson; Plana, Queralt; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Vergeynst, Jenna; Anctil, Francois</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Theories about generalization error with ensembles are mainly based on the diversity concept, which promotes resorting to many members of different properties to support mutually agreeable decisions. Kuncheva (2004) proposed the Multi Level Diversity Model (MLDM) to promote diversity in model ensembles, combining different data subsets, input subsets, models, parameters, and including a combiner level in order to optimize the final ensemble. This work tests the hypothesis about the minimisation of the generalization error with ensembles of Neural Network (NN) structures. We used the MLDM to evaluate two different scenarios: (i) ensembles from a same NN architecture, and (ii) a super-ensemble built by a combination of sub-ensembles of many NN architectures. The time series used correspond to the 12 basins of the MOdel Parameter Estimation eXperiment (MOPEX) project that were used by Duan et al. (2006) and Vos (2013) as benchmark. Six architectures are evaluated: FeedForward NN (FFNN) trained with the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (Hagan et al., 1996), FFNN trained with SCE (Duan et al., 1993), Recurrent NN trained with a complex method (Weins et al., 2008), Dynamic NARX NN (Leontaritis and Billings, 1985), Echo State Network (ESN), and leak integrator neuron (L-ESN) (Lukosevicius and Jaeger, 2009). Each architecture performs separately an Input Variable Selection (IVS) according to a forward stepwise selection (Anctil et al., 2009) using mean square error as objective function. Post-processing by Predictor Stepwise Selection (PSS) of the super-ensemble has been done following the method proposed by Brochero et al. (2011). IVS results showed that the lagged stream flow, lagged precipitation, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) were the most relevant variables. They were respectively selected as one of the firsts three selected variables in 66, 45, and 28 of the 72 scenarios. A relationship between aridity index (Arora, 2002) and NN performance showed that wet basins are more easily modelled than dry basins. Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) Efficiency criterion was used to evaluate the performance of the models. Test results showed that in 9 of the 12 basins, the mean sub-ensembles performance was better than the one presented by Vos (2013). Furthermore, in 55 of 72 cases (6 NN structures x 12 basins) the mean sub-ensemble performance was better than the best individual performance, and in 10 basins the performance of the mean super-ensemble was better than the best individual super-ensemble member. As well, it was identified that members of ESN and L-ESN sub-ensembles have very similar and good performance values. Regarding the mean super-ensemble performance, we obtained an average gain in performance of 17%, and found that PSS preserves sub-ensemble members from different NN structures, indicating the pertinence of diversity in the super-ensemble. Moreover, it was demonstrated that around 100 predictors from the different structures are enough to optimize the super-ensemble. Although sub-ensembles of FFNN-SCE showed unstable performances, FFNN-SCE members were picked-up several times in the final predictor selection. References Anctil, F., M. Filion, and J. Tournebize (2009). "A neural network experiment on the simulation of daily nitrate-nitrogen and suspended sediment fluxes from a small agricultural catchment". In: Ecol. Model. 220.6, pp. 879-887. Arora, V. K. (2002). "The use of the aridity index to assess climate change effect on annual runoff". In: J. Hydrol. 265.164, pp. 164 -177 . Brochero, D., F. Anctil, and C. Gagn'e (2011). "Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members Part 1: Optimization criteria". In: Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15.11, pp. 3307-3325. Duan, Q., J. Schaake, V. Andr'eassian, S. Franks, G. Goteti, H. Gupta, Y. Gusev, F. Habets, A. Hall, L. Hay, T. Hogue, M. Huang, G. Leavesley, X. Liang, O. Nasonova, J. Noilhan, L. Oudin, S. Sorooshian, T. Wagener, and E. Wood (2006). "Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): An overview of science strategy and major results from the second and third workshops". In: J. Hydrol. 320.12, pp. 3-17. Duan, Q., V. Gupta, and S. Sorooshian (1993). "Shuffled complex evolution approach for effective and efficient global minimization". In: J. Optimiz. Theory App. 76.3, pp. 501-521. Hagan, M. T., H. B. Demuth, and M. Beale (1996). Neural network design . 1st ed. PWS Publishing Co., p. 730. Kuncheva, L. I. (2004). Combining Pattern Classifiers: Methods and Algorithms . Wiley-Interscience, p. 350. Leontaritis, I. and S. Billings (1985). "Input-output parametric models for non-linear systems Part I: deterministic non-linear systems". In: International Journal of Control 41.2, pp. 303-328. Lukosevicius, M. and H. Jaeger (2009). "Reservoir computing approaches to recurrent neural network training". In: Computer Science Review 3.3, pp. 127-149. McKee, T., N. Doesken, and J. Kleist (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales . In: Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology. Vos, N. J. de (2013). "Echo state networks as an alternative to traditional artificial neural networks in rainfall-runoff modelling". In: Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17.1, pp. 253-267. Weins, T., R. Burton, G. Schoenau, and D. Bitner (2008). Recursive Generalized Neural Networks (RGNN) for the Modeling of a Load Sensing Pump. In: ASME Joint Conference on Fluid Power, Transmission and Control.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_22 --> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4429Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4429Y"><span>Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-2016</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yamagami, Akio; Matsueda, Mio; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Arctic cyclones (ACs) are a severe atmospheric phenomenon that affects the Arctic environment. This study assesses the forecast skill of five leading operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 10 extraordinary ACs that occurred in summer during 2008-2016. Average existence probability of the predicted ACs was >0.9 at lead times of ≤3.5 days. Average central position error of the predicted ACs was less than half of the mean radius of the 10 ACs (469.1 km) at lead times of 2.5-4.5 days. Average central pressure error of the predicted ACs was 5.5-10.7 hPa at such lead times. Therefore, the operational ensemble prediction systems generally predict the position of ACs within 469.1 km 2.5-4.5 days before they mature. The forecast skill for the extraordinary ACs is lower than that for midlatitude cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere but similar to that in the Southern Hemisphere.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvE..97a2502K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhRvE..97a2502K"><span>Shear-stress fluctuations and relaxation in polymer glasses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kriuchevskyi, I.; Wittmer, J. P.; Meyer, H.; Benzerara, O.; Baschnagel, J.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>We investigate by means of molecular dynamics simulation a coarse-grained polymer glass model focusing on (quasistatic and dynamical) shear-stress fluctuations as a function of temperature T and sampling time Δ t . The linear response is characterized using (ensemble-averaged) expectation values of the contributions (time averaged for each shear plane) to the stress-fluctuation relation μsf for the shear modulus and the shear-stress relaxation modulus G (t ) . Using 100 independent configurations, we pay attention to the respective standard deviations. While the ensemble-averaged modulus μsf(T ) decreases continuously with increasing T for all Δ t sampled, its standard deviation δ μsf(T ) is nonmonotonic with a striking peak at the glass transition. The question of whether the shear modulus is continuous or has a jump singularity at the glass transition is thus ill posed. Confirming the effective time-translational invariance of our systems, the Δ t dependence of μsf and related quantities can be understood using a weighted integral over G (t ) .</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5354898','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5354898"><span>An ensemble approach for large-scale identification of protein-protein interactions using the alignments of multiple sequences</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wang, Lei; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Li, Jian-Qiang; Yan, Xin; Zhang, Wei; Huang, Yu-An</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Protein–Protein Interactions (PPI) is not only the critical component of various biological processes in cells, but also the key to understand the mechanisms leading to healthy and diseased states in organisms. However, it is time-consuming and cost-intensive to identify the interactions among proteins using biological experiments. Hence, how to develop a more efficient computational method rapidly became an attractive topic in the post-genomic era. In this paper, we propose a novel method for inference of protein-protein interactions from protein amino acids sequences only. Specifically, protein amino acids sequence is firstly transformed into Position-Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM) generated by multiple sequences alignments; then the Pseudo PSSM is used to extract feature descriptors. Finally, ensemble Rotation Forest (RF) learning system is trained to predict and recognize PPIs based solely on protein sequence feature. When performed the proposed method on the three benchmark data sets (Yeast, H. pylori, and independent dataset) for predicting PPIs, our method can achieve good average accuracies of 98.38%, 89.75%, and 96.25%, respectively. In order to further evaluate the prediction performance, we also compare the proposed method with other methods using same benchmark data sets. The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms other state-of-the-art method. Therefore, our method is effective and robust and can be taken as a useful tool in exploring and discovering new relationships between proteins. A web server is made publicly available at the URL http://202.119.201.126:8888/PsePSSM/ for academic use. PMID:28029645</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24390396','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24390396"><span>IDM-PhyChm-Ens: intelligent decision-making ensemble methodology for classification of human breast cancer using physicochemical properties of amino acids.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ali, Safdar; Majid, Abdul; Khan, Asifullah</p> <p>2014-04-01</p> <p>Development of an accurate and reliable intelligent decision-making method for the construction of cancer diagnosis system is one of the fast growing research areas of health sciences. Such decision-making system can provide adequate information for cancer diagnosis and drug discovery. Descriptors derived from physicochemical properties of protein sequences are very useful for classifying cancerous proteins. Recently, several interesting research studies have been reported on breast cancer classification. To this end, we propose the exploitation of the physicochemical properties of amino acids in protein primary sequences such as hydrophobicity (Hd) and hydrophilicity (Hb) for breast cancer classification. Hd and Hb properties of amino acids, in recent literature, are reported to be quite effective in characterizing the constituent amino acids and are used to study protein foldings, interactions, structures, and sequence-order effects. Especially, using these physicochemical properties, we observed that proline, serine, tyrosine, cysteine, arginine, and asparagine amino acids offer high discrimination between cancerous and healthy proteins. In addition, unlike traditional ensemble classification approaches, the proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method was developed by combining the decision spaces of a specific classifier trained on different feature spaces. The different feature spaces used were amino acid composition, split amino acid composition, and pseudo amino acid composition. Consequently, we have exploited different feature spaces using Hd and Hb properties of amino acids to develop an accurate method for classification of cancerous protein sequences. We developed ensemble classifiers using diverse learning algorithms such as random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) trained on different feature spaces. We observed that ensemble-RF, in case of cancer classification, performed better than ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN. Our analysis demonstrates that ensemble-RF, ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN are more effective than their individual counterparts. The proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method has shown improved performance compared to existing techniques.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.1762V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.1762V"><span>Avoiding the ensemble decorrelation problem using member-by-member post-processing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Forecast calibration or post-processing has become a standard tool in atmospheric and climatological science due to the presence of systematic initial condition and model errors. For ensemble forecasts the most competitive methods derive from the assumption of a fixed ensemble distribution. However, when independently applying such 'statistical' methods at different locations, lead times or for multiple variables the correlation structure for individual ensemble members is destroyed. Instead of reastablishing the correlation structure as in Schefzik et al. (2013) we instead propose a calibration method that avoids such problem by correcting each ensemble member individually. Moreover, we analyse the fundamental mechanisms by which the probabilistic ensemble skill can be enhanced. In terms of continuous ranked probability score, our member-by-member approach amounts to skill gain that extends for lead times far beyond the error doubling time and which is as good as the one of the most competitive statistical approach, non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (Gneiting et al. 2005). Besides the conservation of correlation structure, additional benefits arise including the fact that higher-order ensemble moments like kurtosis and skewness are inherited from the uncorrected forecasts. Our detailed analysis is performed in the context of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and different simple models but the results extent succesfully to the ensemble forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2013, 2014) . References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Schefzik, R., T.L. Thorarinsdottir, and T. Gneiting, 2013: Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling. To appear in Statistical Science 28. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2013: Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012, Springer proceedings on complexity, XVI, p. 347-352. [4] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2014: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects, under review.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28541232','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28541232"><span>Locally Weighted Ensemble Clustering.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Huang, Dong; Wang, Chang-Dong; Lai, Jian-Huang</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Due to its ability to combine multiple base clusterings into a probably better and more robust clustering, the ensemble clustering technique has been attracting increasing attention in recent years. Despite the significant success, one limitation to most of the existing ensemble clustering methods is that they generally treat all base clusterings equally regardless of their reliability, which makes them vulnerable to low-quality base clusterings. Although some efforts have been made to (globally) evaluate and weight the base clusterings, yet these methods tend to view each base clustering as an individual and neglect the local diversity of clusters inside the same base clustering. It remains an open problem how to evaluate the reliability of clusters and exploit the local diversity in the ensemble to enhance the consensus performance, especially, in the case when there is no access to data features or specific assumptions on data distribution. To address this, in this paper, we propose a novel ensemble clustering approach based on ensemble-driven cluster uncertainty estimation and local weighting strategy. In particular, the uncertainty of each cluster is estimated by considering the cluster labels in the entire ensemble via an entropic criterion. A novel ensemble-driven cluster validity measure is introduced, and a locally weighted co-association matrix is presented to serve as a summary for the ensemble of diverse clusters. With the local diversity in ensembles exploited, two novel consensus functions are further proposed. Extensive experiments on a variety of real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach over the state-of-the-art.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018InvPr..34e5009C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018InvPr..34e5009C"><span>Parameterizations for ensemble Kalman inversion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chada, Neil K.; Iglesias, Marco A.; Roininen, Lassi; Stuart, Andrew M.</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>The use of ensemble methods to solve inverse problems is attractive because it is a derivative-free methodology which is also well-adapted to parallelization. In its basic iterative form the method produces an ensemble of solutions which lie in the linear span of the initial ensemble. Choice of the parameterization of the unknown field is thus a key component of the success of the method. We demonstrate how both geometric ideas and hierarchical ideas can be used to design effective parameterizations for a number of applied inverse problems arising in electrical impedance tomography, groundwater flow and source inversion. In particular we show how geometric ideas, including the level set method, can be used to reconstruct piecewise continuous fields, and we show how hierarchical methods can be used to learn key parameters in continuous fields, such as length-scales, resulting in improved reconstructions. Geometric and hierarchical ideas are combined in the level set method to find piecewise constant reconstructions with interfaces of unknown topology.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22409708-we-bre-ensemble-graphical-models-predicting-radiation-pneumontis-risk','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22409708-we-bre-ensemble-graphical-models-predicting-radiation-pneumontis-risk"><span>WE-E-BRE-05: Ensemble of Graphical Models for Predicting Radiation Pneumontis Risk</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Lee, S; Ybarra, N; Jeyaseelan, K</p> <p></p> <p>Purpose: We propose a prior knowledge-based approach to construct an interaction graph of biological and dosimetric radiation pneumontis (RP) covariates for the purpose of developing a RP risk classifier. Methods: We recruited 59 NSCLC patients who received curative radiotherapy with minimum 6 month follow-up. 16 RP events was observed (CTCAE grade ≥2). Blood serum was collected from every patient before (pre-RT) and during RT (mid-RT). From each sample the concentration of the following five candidate biomarkers were taken as covariates: alpha-2-macroglobulin (α2M), angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor β (TGF-β), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and osteopontin (OPN). Dose-volumetric parameters were alsomore » included as covariates. The number of biological and dosimetric covariates was reduced by a variable selection scheme implemented by L1-regularized logistic regression (LASSO). Posterior probability distribution of interaction graphs between the selected variables was estimated from the data under the literature-based prior knowledge to weight more heavily the graphs that contain the expected associations. A graph ensemble was formed by averaging the most probable graphs weighted by their posterior, creating a Bayesian Network (BN)-based RP risk classifier. Results: The LASSO selected the following 7 RP covariates: (1) pre-RT concentration level of α2M, (2) α2M level mid- RT/pre-RT, (3) pre-RT IL6 level, (4) IL6 level mid-RT/pre-RT, (5) ACE mid-RT/pre-RT, (6) PTV volume, and (7) mean lung dose (MLD). The ensemble BN model achieved the maximum sensitivity/specificity of 81%/84% and outperformed univariate dosimetric predictors as shown by larger AUC values (0.78∼0.81) compared with MLD (0.61), V20 (0.65) and V30 (0.70). The ensembles obtained by incorporating the prior knowledge improved classification performance for the ensemble size 5∼50. Conclusion: We demonstrated a probabilistic ensemble method to detect robust associations between RP covariates and its potential to improve RP prediction accuracy. Our Bayesian approach to incorporate prior knowledge can enhance efficiency in searching of such associations from data. The authors acknowledge partial support by: 1) CREATE Medical Physics Research Training Network grant of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Grant number: 432290) and 2) The Terry Fox Foundation Strategic Training Initiative for Excellence in Radiation Research for the 21st Century (EIRR21)« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22609012-new-approach-information-fusion-lipschitz-classifiers-ensembles-application-multi-channel-otdr-monitoring-systems','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22609012-new-approach-information-fusion-lipschitz-classifiers-ensembles-application-multi-channel-otdr-monitoring-systems"><span>New approach to information fusion for Lipschitz classifiers ensembles: Application in multi-channel C-OTDR-monitoring systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Timofeev, Andrey V.; Egorov, Dmitry V.</p> <p></p> <p>This paper presents new results concerning selection of an optimal information fusion formula for an ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers. The goal of information fusion is to create an integral classificatory which could provide better generalization ability of the ensemble while achieving a practically acceptable level of effectiveness. The problem of information fusion is very relevant for data processing in multi-channel C-OTDR-monitoring systems. In this case we have to effectively classify targeted events which appear in the vicinity of the monitored object. Solution of this problem is based on usage of an ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers each of which corresponds tomore » a respective channel. We suggest a brand new method for information fusion in case of ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers. This method is called “The Weighing of Inversely as Lipschitz Constants” (WILC). Results of WILC-method practical usage in multichannel C-OTDR monitoring systems are presented.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29062476','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29062476"><span>Building Diversified Multiple Trees for classification in high dimensional noisy biomedical data.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Li, Jiuyong; Liu, Lin; Liu, Jixue; Green, Ryan</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>It is common that a trained classification model is applied to the operating data that is deviated from the training data because of noise. This paper will test an ensemble method, Diversified Multiple Tree (DMT), on its capability for classifying instances in a new laboratory using the classifier built on the instances of another laboratory. DMT is tested on three real world biomedical data sets from different laboratories in comparison with four benchmark ensemble methods, AdaBoost, Bagging, Random Forests, and Random Trees. Experiments have also been conducted on studying the limitation of DMT and its possible variations. Experimental results show that DMT is significantly more accurate than other benchmark ensemble classifiers on classifying new instances of a different laboratory from the laboratory where instances are used to build the classifier. This paper demonstrates that an ensemble classifier, DMT, is more robust in classifying noisy data than other widely used ensemble methods. DMT works on the data set that supports multiple simple trees.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AtmRe.194..245S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AtmRe.194..245S"><span>Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting based on an extrapolation of radar reflectivity and an ensemble approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sokol, Zbyněk; Mejsnar, Jan; Pop, Lukáš; Bližňák, Vojtěch</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>A new method for the probabilistic nowcasting of instantaneous rain rates (ENS) based on the ensemble technique and extrapolation along Lagrangian trajectories of current radar reflectivity is presented. Assuming inaccurate forecasts of the trajectories, an ensemble of precipitation forecasts is calculated and used to estimate the probability that rain rates will exceed a given threshold in a given grid point. Although the extrapolation neglects the growth and decay of precipitation, their impact on the probability forecast is taken into account by the calibration of forecasts using the reliability component of the Brier score (BS). ENS forecasts the probability that the rain rates will exceed thresholds of 0.1, 1.0 and 3.0 mm/h in squares of 3 km by 3 km. The lead times were up to 60 min, and the forecast accuracy was measured by the BS. The ENS forecasts were compared with two other methods: combined method (COM) and neighbourhood method (NEI). NEI considered the extrapolated values in the square neighbourhood of 5 by 5 grid points of the point of interest as ensemble members, and the COM ensemble was comprised of united ensemble members of ENS and NEI. The results showed that the calibration technique significantly improves bias of the probability forecasts by including additional uncertainties that correspond to neglected processes during the extrapolation. In addition, the calibration can also be used for finding the limits of maximum lead times for which the forecasting method is useful. We found that ENS is useful for lead times up to 60 min for thresholds of 0.1 and 1 mm/h and approximately 30 to 40 min for a threshold of 3 mm/h. We also found that a reasonable size of the ensemble is 100 members, which provided better scores than ensembles with 10, 25 and 50 members. In terms of the BS, the best results were obtained by ENS and COM, which are comparable. However, ENS is better calibrated and thus preferable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018HESS...22.2007D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018HESS...22.2007D"><span>Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time-space evolutionary probability distribution - Part 2: numerical application</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dib, Alain; Kavvas, M. Levent</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>The characteristic form of the Saint-Venant equations is solved in a stochastic setting by using a newly proposed Fokker-Planck Equation (FPE) methodology. This methodology computes the ensemble behavior and variability of the unsteady flow in open channels by directly solving for the flow variables' time-space evolutionary probability distribution. The new methodology is tested on a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow problem, with an uncertainty arising from the channel's roughness coefficient. The computed statistical descriptions of the flow variables are compared to the results obtained through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in order to evaluate the performance of the FPE methodology. The comparisons show that the proposed methodology can adequately predict the results of the considered stochastic flow problem, including the ensemble averages, variances, and probability density functions in time and space. Unlike the large number of simulations performed by the MC approach, only one simulation is required by the FPE methodology. Moreover, the total computational time of the FPE methodology is smaller than that of the MC approach, which could prove to be a particularly crucial advantage in systems with a large number of uncertain parameters. As such, the results obtained in this study indicate that the proposed FPE methodology is a powerful and time-efficient approach for predicting the ensemble average and variance behavior, in both space and time, for an open-channel flow process under an uncertain roughness coefficient.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE.140C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE.140C"><span>New technique for ensemble dressing combining Multimodel SuperEnsemble and precipitation PDF</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cane, D.; Milelli, M.</p> <p>2009-09-01</p> <p>The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique (Krishnamurti et al., Science 285, 1548-1550, 1999) is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the difference between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure (Cane and Milelli, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15, 2, 2006), the Multimodel SuperEnsemble gives good results also when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present our methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts applied on a wide spectrum of results over Piemonte very dense non-GTS weather station network. We will focus particularly on an accurate statistical method for bias correction and on the ensemble dressing in agreement with the observed precipitation forecast-conditioned PDF. Acknowledgement: this work is supported by the Italian Civil Defence Department.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RScI...89f5106L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RScI...89f5106L"><span>Linear least-squares method for global luminescent oil film skin friction field analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lee, Taekjin; Nonomura, Taku; Asai, Keisuke; Liu, Tianshu</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>A data analysis method based on the linear least-squares (LLS) method was developed for the extraction of high-resolution skin friction fields from global luminescent oil film (GLOF) visualization images of a surface in an aerodynamic flow. In this method, the oil film thickness distribution and its spatiotemporal development are measured by detecting the luminescence intensity of the thin oil film. From the resulting set of GLOF images, the thin oil film equation is solved to obtain an ensemble-averaged (steady) skin friction field as an inverse problem. In this paper, the formulation of a discrete linear system of equations for the LLS method is described, and an error analysis is given to identify the main error sources and the relevant parameters. Simulations were conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the LLS method and the effects of the image patterns, image noise, and sample numbers on the results in comparison with the previous snapshot-solution-averaging (SSA) method. An experimental case is shown to enable the comparison of the results obtained using conventional oil flow visualization and those obtained using both the LLS and SSA methods. The overall results show that the LLS method is more reliable than the SSA method and the LLS method can yield a more detailed skin friction topology in an objective way.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1513090D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1513090D"><span>Interactive vs. Non-Interactive Ensembles for Weather Prediction and Climate Projection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Duane, Gregory</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>If the members of an ensemble of different models are allowed to interact with one another in run time, predictive skill can be improved as compared to that of any individual model or any average of indvidual model outputs. Inter-model connections in such an interactive ensemble can be trained, using historical data, so that the resulting ``supermodel" synchronizes with reality when used in weather-prediction mode, where the individual models perform data assimilation from each other (with trainable inter-model "observation error") as well as from real observations. In climate-projection mode, parameters of the individual models are changed, as might occur from an increase in GHG levels, and one obtains relevant statistical properties of the new supermodel attractor. In simple cases, it has been shown that training of the inter-model connections with the old parameter values gives a supermodel that is still predictive when the parameter values are changed. Here we inquire as to the circumstances under which supermodel performance can be expected to exceed that of the customary weighted average of model outputs. We consider a supermodel formed from quasigeostrophic channel models with different forcing coefficients, and introduce an effective training scheme for the inter-model connections. We show that the blocked-zonal index cycle is reproduced better by the supermodel than by any non-interactive ensemble in the extreme case where the forcing coefficients of the different models are very large or very small. With realistic differences in forcing coefficients, as would be representative of actual differences among IPCC-class models, the usual linearity assumption is justified and a weighted average of model outputs is adequate. It is therefore hypothesized that supermodeling is likely to be useful in situations where there are qualitative model differences, as arising from sub-gridscale parameterizations, that affect overall model behavior. Otherwise the usual ex post facto averaging will probably suffice. Previous results from an ENSO-prediction supermodel [Kirtman et al.] are re-examined in light of the hypothesis about the importance of qualitative inter-model differences.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12366212','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12366212"><span>Fracture of disordered solids in compression as a critical phenomenon. I. Statistical mechanics formalism.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Toussaint, Renaud; Pride, Steven R</p> <p>2002-09-01</p> <p>This is the first of a series of three articles that treats fracture localization as a critical phenomenon. This first article establishes a statistical mechanics based on ensemble averages when fluctuations through time play no role in defining the ensemble. Ensembles are obtained by dividing a huge rock sample into many mesoscopic volumes. Because rocks are a disordered collection of grains in cohesive contact, we expect that once shear strain is applied and cracks begin to arrive in the system, the mesoscopic volumes will have a wide distribution of different crack states. These mesoscopic volumes are the members of our ensembles. We determine the probability of observing a mesoscopic volume to be in a given crack state by maximizing Shannon's measure of the emergent-crack disorder subject to constraints coming from the energy balance of brittle fracture. The laws of thermodynamics, the partition function, and the quantification of temperature are obtained for such cracking systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MRE.....3e5011O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MRE.....3e5011O"><span>Methane adsorption in nanoporous carbon: the numerical estimation of optimal storage conditions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ortiz, L.; Kuchta, B.; Firlej, L.; Roth, M. W.; Wexler, C.</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>The efficient storage and transportation of natural gas is one of the most important enabling technologies for use in energy applications. Adsorption in porous systems, which will allow the transportation of high-density fuel under low pressure, is one of the possible solutions. We present and discuss extensive grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation results of the adsorption of methane into slit-shaped graphitic pores of various widths (between 7 Å and 50 Å), and at pressures P between 0 bar and 360 bar. Our results shed light on the dependence of film structure on pore width and pressure. For large widths, we observe multi-layer adsorption at supercritical conditions, with excess amounts even at large distances from the pore walls originating from the attractive interaction exerted by a very high-density film in the first layer. We are also able to successfully model the experimental adsorption isotherms of heterogeneous activated carbon samples by means of an ensemble average of the pore widths, based exclusively on the pore-size distributions (PSD) calculated from subcritical nitrogen adsorption isotherms. Finally, we propose a new formula, based on the PSD ensemble averages, to calculate the isosteric heat of adsorption of heterogeneous systems from single-pore-width calculations. The methods proposed here will contribute to the rational design and optimization of future adsorption-based storage tanks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28544272','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28544272"><span>Ensemble variant interpretation methods to predict enzyme activity and assign pathogenicity in the CAGI4 NAGLU (Human N-acetyl-glucosaminidase) and UBE2I (Human SUMO-ligase) challenges.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Yin, Yizhou; Kundu, Kunal; Pal, Lipika R; Moult, John</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>CAGI (Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation) conducts community experiments to determine the state of the art in relating genotype to phenotype. Here, we report results obtained using newly developed ensemble methods to address two CAGI4 challenges: enzyme activity for population missense variants found in NAGLU (Human N-acetyl-glucosaminidase) and random missense mutations in Human UBE2I (Human SUMO E2 ligase), assayed in a high-throughput competitive yeast complementation procedure. The ensemble methods are effective, ranked second for SUMO-ligase and third for NAGLU, according to the CAGI independent assessors. However, in common with other methods used in CAGI, there are large discrepancies between predicted and experimental activities for a subset of variants. Analysis of the structural context provides some insight into these. Post-challenge analysis shows that the ensemble methods are also effective at assigning pathogenicity for the NAGLU variants. In the clinic, providing an estimate of the reliability of pathogenic assignments is the key. We have also used the NAGLU dataset to show that ensemble methods have considerable potential for this task, and are already reliable enough for use with a subset of mutations. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4481969','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4481969"><span>Metal Oxide Gas Sensor Drift Compensation Using a Two-Dimensional Classifier Ensemble</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Liu, Hang; Chu, Renzhi; Tang, Zhenan</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Sensor drift is the most challenging problem in gas sensing at present. We propose a novel two-dimensional classifier ensemble strategy to solve the gas discrimination problem, regardless of the gas concentration, with high accuracy over extended periods of time. This strategy is appropriate for multi-class classifiers that consist of combinations of pairwise classifiers, such as support vector machines. We compare the performance of the strategy with those of competing methods in an experiment based on a public dataset that was compiled over a period of three years. The experimental results demonstrate that the two-dimensional ensemble outperforms the other methods considered. Furthermore, we propose a pre-aging process inspired by that applied to the sensors to improve the stability of the classifier ensemble. The experimental results demonstrate that the weight of each multi-class classifier model in the ensemble remains fairly static before and after the addition of new classifier models to the ensemble, when a pre-aging procedure is applied. PMID:25942640</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC13K0882L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC13K0882L"><span>Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_23 --> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5940184','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5940184"><span>Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27838826','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27838826"><span>Pairwise Classifier Ensemble with Adaptive Sub-Classifiers for fMRI Pattern Analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kim, Eunwoo; Park, HyunWook</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>The multi-voxel pattern analysis technique is applied to fMRI data for classification of high-level brain functions using pattern information distributed over multiple voxels. In this paper, we propose a classifier ensemble for multiclass classification in fMRI analysis, exploiting the fact that specific neighboring voxels can contain spatial pattern information. The proposed method converts the multiclass classification to a pairwise classifier ensemble, and each pairwise classifier consists of multiple sub-classifiers using an adaptive feature set for each class-pair. Simulated and real fMRI data were used to verify the proposed method. Intra- and inter-subject analyses were performed to compare the proposed method with several well-known classifiers, including single and ensemble classifiers. The comparison results showed that the proposed method can be generally applied to multiclass classification in both simulations and real fMRI analyses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSV...424..192C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSV...424..192C"><span>Modified complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and intrinsic mode functions evaluation index for high-speed train gearbox fault diagnosis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Dongyue; Lin, Jianhui; Li, Yanping</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>Complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) has been developed for the mode-mixing problem in Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method. Compared to the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), the CEEMD method reduces residue noise in the signal reconstruction. Both CEEMD and EEMD need enough ensemble number to reduce the residue noise, and hence it would be too much computation cost. Moreover, the selection of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) for further analysis usually depends on experience. A modified CEEMD method and IMFs evaluation index are proposed with the aim of reducing the computational cost and select IMFs automatically. A simulated signal and in-service high-speed train gearbox vibration signals are employed to validate the proposed method in this paper. The results demonstrate that the modified CEEMD can decompose the signal efficiently with less computation cost, and the IMFs evaluation index can select the meaningful IMFs automatically.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GPC...115....1X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GPC...115....1X"><span>Changes of reference evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin: Present observations and future projection from climatic variables through multi-model ensemble</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Peng, Shizhang; Yu, Zhongbo; Yong, Bin; Taylor, John</p> <p>2014-04-01</p> <p>As the most excellent indicator for hydrological cycle and a central link to water-balance calculations, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources systems since the climate change has been becoming more pronounced. In this study, we conduct an investigation on the spatial and temporal changes in ET0 of the Haihe River Basin in present and future stages. The ET0 in the past five decades (1961-2010) are calculated by the Penman-Monteith method with historical climatic variables in 40 sites while the ET0 estimation for the future period of 2011-2099 is based on the related climatic variables projected by Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) multimodel ensemble projections in Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) approach. Results can be summarized for the present and future as follows. (1) No coherent spatial patterns in ET0 changes are seen in the whole basin. Half of the stations distributed mainly in the eastern and southeastern plain regions present significant negative trends, while only 3 stations in the western mountainous and plateau basin show significant positive trends. Radiation is mainly responsible for the ET0 change in the southern and eastern basin, whereas relative humidity and wind speed are the leading factors in the eastern coastal and north parts. (2) BMA ensemble method is competent to produce lower bias in comparison with other common methods in this basin. Future spatiotemporal ET0 pattern analysis by means of the BMA method based on the ensembles of four CGCMs suggested that although the spatial patterns under three scenarios are different in the forthcoming two decades, generally increasing trends can be found in the 21st century, which is mainly attributed to the significant increasing temperature. In addition, the implication of future ET0 change in agriculture and local water resources is discussed as an extension of this work. The results can provide beneficial reference and comprehensive information to understand the impact of climate change on the future water balance and improve the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environment management in the Haihe River Basin.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5993225','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5993225"><span>Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>DelSole, T.; Tippett, M.K.; Pegion, K.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Abstract The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real‐time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitrary initialization frequency and for burst ensembles by fitting error covariances to a parametric model and then extrapolating to arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Applying this method to real‐time forecasts, we find that the MSE consistently reaches a minimum for a lagged ensemble size between one and eight days, when four initializations per day are included. This ensemble size is consistent with the 8–10 day lagged ensemble configuration used operationally. Interestingly, the skill of both ensemble configurations is close to the estimated skill of the infinite ensemble. The skill of the weighted, lagged, and burst ensembles are found to be comparable. Certain unphysical features of the estimated error growth were tracked down to problems with the climatology and data discontinuities. PMID:29937973</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JAMES..10.1074T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JAMES..10.1074T"><span>Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Trenary, L.; DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real-time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitrary initialization frequency and for burst ensembles by fitting error covariances to a parametric model and then extrapolating to arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Applying this method to real-time forecasts, we find that the MSE consistently reaches a minimum for a lagged ensemble size between one and eight days, when four initializations per day are included. This ensemble size is consistent with the 8-10 day lagged ensemble configuration used operationally. Interestingly, the skill of both ensemble configurations is close to the estimated skill of the infinite ensemble. The skill of the weighted, lagged, and burst ensembles are found to be comparable. Certain unphysical features of the estimated error growth were tracked down to problems with the climatology and data discontinuities.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800023591','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800023591"><span>Project FIRES. Volume 1: Program Overview and Summary, Phase 1B</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Abeles, F. J.</p> <p>1980-01-01</p> <p>Overall performance requirements and evaluation methods for firefighters protective equipment were established and published as the Protective Ensemble Performance Standards (PEPS). Current firefighters protective equipment was tested and evaluated against the PEPS requirements, and the preliminary design of a prototype protective ensemble was performed. In phase 1B, the design of the prototype ensemble was finalized. Prototype ensembles were fabricated and then subjected to a series of qualification tests which were based upon the PEPS requirements. Engineering drawings and purchase specifications were prepared for the new protective ensemble.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28268573','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28268573"><span>Deep neural ensemble for retinal vessel segmentation in fundus images towards achieving label-free angiography.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lahiri, A; Roy, Abhijit Guha; Sheet, Debdoot; Biswas, Prabir Kumar</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Automated segmentation of retinal blood vessels in label-free fundus images entails a pivotal role in computed aided diagnosis of ophthalmic pathologies, viz., diabetic retinopathy, hypertensive disorders and cardiovascular diseases. The challenge remains active in medical image analysis research due to varied distribution of blood vessels, which manifest variations in their dimensions of physical appearance against a noisy background. In this paper we formulate the segmentation challenge as a classification task. Specifically, we employ unsupervised hierarchical feature learning using ensemble of two level of sparsely trained denoised stacked autoencoder. First level training with bootstrap samples ensures decoupling and second level ensemble formed by different network architectures ensures architectural revision. We show that ensemble training of auto-encoders fosters diversity in learning dictionary of visual kernels for vessel segmentation. SoftMax classifier is used for fine tuning each member autoencoder and multiple strategies are explored for 2-level fusion of ensemble members. On DRIVE dataset, we achieve maximum average accuracy of 95.33% with an impressively low standard deviation of 0.003 and Kappa agreement coefficient of 0.708. Comparison with other major algorithms substantiates the high efficacy of our model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26389618','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26389618"><span>Sensory processing patterns predict the integration of information held in visual working memory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lowe, Matthew X; Stevenson, Ryan A; Wilson, Kristin E; Ouslis, Natasha E; Barense, Morgan D; Cant, Jonathan S; Ferber, Susanne</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Given the limited resources of visual working memory, multiple items may be remembered as an averaged group or ensemble. As a result, local information may be ill-defined, but these ensemble representations provide accurate diagnostics of the natural world by combining gist information with item-level information held in visual working memory. Some neurodevelopmental disorders are characterized by sensory processing profiles that predispose individuals to avoid or seek-out sensory stimulation, fundamentally altering their perceptual experience. Here, we report such processing styles will affect the computation of ensemble statistics in the general population. We identified stable adult sensory processing patterns to demonstrate that individuals with low sensory thresholds who show a greater proclivity to engage in active response strategies to prevent sensory overstimulation are less likely to integrate mean size information across a set of similar items and are therefore more likely to be biased away from the mean size representation of an ensemble display. We therefore propose the study of ensemble processing should extend beyond the statistics of the display, and should also consider the statistics of the observer. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24088811','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24088811"><span>New technologies for examining the role of neuronal ensembles in drug addiction and fear.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cruz, Fabio C; Koya, Eisuke; Guez-Barber, Danielle H; Bossert, Jennifer M; Lupica, Carl R; Shaham, Yavin; Hope, Bruce T</p> <p>2013-11-01</p> <p>Correlational data suggest that learned associations are encoded within neuronal ensembles. However, it has been difficult to prove that neuronal ensembles mediate learned behaviours because traditional pharmacological and lesion methods, and even newer cell type-specific methods, affect both activated and non-activated neurons. In addition, previous studies on synaptic and molecular alterations induced by learning did not distinguish between behaviourally activated and non-activated neurons. Here, we describe three new approaches--Daun02 inactivation, FACS sorting of activated neurons and Fos-GFP transgenic rats--that have been used to selectively target and study activated neuronal ensembles in models of conditioned drug effects and relapse. We also describe two new tools--Fos-tTA transgenic mice and inactivation of CREB-overexpressing neurons--that have been used to study the role of neuronal ensembles in conditioned fear.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015BGD....1214049R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015BGD....1214049R"><span>Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.</p> <p>2015-08-01</p> <p>Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes have been investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spead in the detailed variations, mapping methods with closer match to the data also tend to be more consistent with each other. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to 2000. The weighted mean total ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2829965','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2829965"><span>Single-Molecule and Superresolution Imaging in Live Bacteria Cells</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Biteen, Julie S.; Moerner, W.E.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Single-molecule imaging enables biophysical measurements devoid of ensemble averaging, gives enhanced spatial resolution beyond the diffraction limit, and permits superresolution reconstructions. Here, single-molecule and superresolution imaging are applied to the study of proteins in live Caulobacter crescentus cells to illustrate the power of these methods in bacterial imaging. Based on these techniques, the diffusion coefficient and dynamics of the histidine protein kinase PleC, the localization behavior of the polar protein PopZ, and the treadmilling behavior and protein superstructure of the structural protein MreB are investigated with sub-40-nm spatial resolution, all in live cells. PMID:20300204</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005NIMPA.542..129T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005NIMPA.542..129T"><span>Visualization of cavitation phenomena in a Diesel engine fuel injection nozzle by neutron radiography</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Takenaka, N.; Kadowaki, T.; Kawabata, Y.; Lim, I. C.; Sim, C. M.</p> <p>2005-04-01</p> <p>Visualization of cavitation phenomena in a Diesel engine fuel injection nozzle was carried out by using neutron radiography system at KUR in Research Reactor Institute in Kyoto University and at HANARO in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. A neutron chopper was synchronized to the engine rotation for high shutter speed exposures. A multi-exposure method was applied to obtain a clear image as an ensemble average of the synchronized images. Some images were successfully obtained and suggested new understanding of the cavitation phenomena in a Diesel engine fuel injection nozzle.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16821910','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16821910"><span>Graph transformation method for calculating waiting times in Markov chains.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Trygubenko, Semen A; Wales, David J</p> <p>2006-06-21</p> <p>We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then calculate averages over a given ensemble of paths for both additive and multiplicative properties in a nonstochastic and noniterative fashion. In particular, we can calculate the mean first-passage time between arbitrary groups of stationary points for discrete path sampling databases, and hence extract phenomenological rate constants. We present a number of examples to demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of this approach.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMNG22A..03J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMNG22A..03J"><span>Numerical weather prediction model tuning via ensemble prediction system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jarvinen, H.; Laine, M.; Ollinaho, P.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>This paper discusses a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. Currently, numerical values of these parameters are specified manually. In a recent dual manuscript (QJRMS, revised) we developed a new concept and method for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters. The EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") method requires only minimal changes to the existing operational ensemble prediction infra-structure and it seems very cost-effective because practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating each member of the ensemble of predictions using different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In the presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an atmospheric general circulation model based ensemble prediction system show that the NWP model tuning capacity of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, a global top-end NWP model tuning exercise with preliminary results is published.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AdWR...69..181D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AdWR...69..181D"><span>Subsurface characterization with localized ensemble Kalman filter employing adaptive thresholding</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Delijani, Ebrahim Biniaz; Pishvaie, Mahmoud Reza; Boozarjomehry, Ramin Bozorgmehry</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p>Ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF, as a Monte Carlo sequential data assimilation method has emerged promisingly for subsurface media characterization during past decade. Due to high computational cost of large ensemble size, EnKF is limited to small ensemble set in practice. This results in appearance of spurious correlation in covariance structure leading to incorrect or probable divergence of updated realizations. In this paper, a universal/adaptive thresholding method is presented to remove and/or mitigate spurious correlation problem in the forecast covariance matrix. This method is, then, extended to regularize Kalman gain directly. Four different thresholding functions have been considered to threshold forecast covariance and gain matrices. These include hard, soft, lasso and Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation (SCAD) functions. Three benchmarks are used to evaluate the performances of these methods. These benchmarks include a small 1D linear model and two 2D water flooding (in petroleum reservoirs) cases whose levels of heterogeneity/nonlinearity are different. It should be noted that beside the adaptive thresholding, the standard distance dependant localization and bootstrap Kalman gain are also implemented for comparison purposes. We assessed each setup with different ensemble sets to investigate the sensitivity of each method on ensemble size. The results indicate that thresholding of forecast covariance yields more reliable performance than Kalman gain. Among thresholding function, SCAD is more robust for both covariance and gain estimation. Our analyses emphasize that not all assimilation cycles do require thresholding and it should be performed wisely during the early assimilation cycles. The proposed scheme of adaptive thresholding outperforms other methods for subsurface characterization of underlying benchmarks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=beats+AND+solo&id=EJ430552','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=beats+AND+solo&id=EJ430552"><span>Fine-Tuning Your Ensemble's Jazz Style.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Garcia, Antonio J.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>Proposes instructional strategies for directors of jazz groups, including guidelines for developing of skills necessary for good performance. Includes effective methods for positive changes in ensemble style. Addresses jazz group problems such as beat, tempo, staying in tune, wind power, and solo/ensemble lines. Discusses percussionists, bassists,…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ExFl...59...94N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ExFl...59...94N"><span>Detection of small-amplitude periodic surface pressure fluctuation by pressure-sensitive paint measurements using frequency-domain methods</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Noda, Takahiro; Nakakita, Kazuyki; Wakahara, Masaki; Kameda, Masaharu</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>Image measurement using pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) is an effective tool for analyzing the unsteady pressure field on the surface of a body in a low-speed air flow, which is associated with wind noise. In this study, the surface pressure fluctuation due to the tonal trailing edge (TE) noise for a two-dimensional NACA 0012 airfoil was quantitatively detected using a porous anodized aluminum PSP (AA-PSP). The emission from the PSP upon illumination by a blue laser diode was captured using a 12-bit high-speed complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) camera. The intensities of the captured images were converted to pressures using a standard intensity-based method. Three image-processing methods based on the fast Fourier transform (FFT) were tested to determine their efficiency in improving the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the unsteady PSP data. In addition to two fundamental FFT techniques (the full data and ensemble averaging FFTs), a technique using the coherent output power (COP), which involves the cross correlation between the PSP data and the signal measured using a pointwise sound-level meter, was tested. Preliminary tests indicated that random photon shot noise dominates the intensity fluctuations in the captured PSP emissions above 200 Hz. Pressure fluctuations associated with the TE noise, whose dominant frequency is approximately 940 Hz, were successfully measured by analyzing 40,960 sequential PSP images recorded at 10 kfps. Quantitative validation using the power spectrum indicates that the COP technique is the most effective method of identification of the pressure fluctuation directly related to TE noise. It is possible to distinguish power differences with a resolution of 10 Pa^2 (4 Pa in amplitude) when the COP was employed without use of another wind-off data. This resolution cannot be achieved by the ensemble averaging FFT because of an insufficient elimination of the background noise.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26764911','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26764911"><span>Heterogeneous Ensemble Combination Search Using Genetic Algorithm for Class Imbalanced Data Classification.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Noman, Nasimul; Berretta, Regina; Moscato, Pablo</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Classification of datasets with imbalanced sample distributions has always been a challenge. In general, a popular approach for enhancing classification performance is the construction of an ensemble of classifiers. However, the performance of an ensemble is dependent on the choice of constituent base classifiers. Therefore, we propose a genetic algorithm-based search method for finding the optimum combination from a pool of base classifiers to form a heterogeneous ensemble. The algorithm, called GA-EoC, utilises 10 fold-cross validation on training data for evaluating the quality of each candidate ensembles. In order to combine the base classifiers decision into ensemble's output, we used the simple and widely used majority voting approach. The proposed algorithm, along with the random sub-sampling approach to balance the class distribution, has been used for classifying class-imbalanced datasets. Additionally, if a feature set was not available, we used the (α, β) - k Feature Set method to select a better subset of features for classification. We have tested GA-EoC with three benchmarking datasets from the UCI-Machine Learning repository, one Alzheimer's disease dataset and a subset of the PubFig database of Columbia University. In general, the performance of the proposed method on the chosen datasets is robust and better than that of the constituent base classifiers and many other well-known ensembles. Based on our empirical study we claim that a genetic algorithm is a superior and reliable approach to heterogeneous ensemble construction and we expect that the proposed GA-EoC would perform consistently in other cases.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22308400-quantum-gibbs-ensemble-monte-carlo','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22308400-quantum-gibbs-ensemble-monte-carlo"><span>Quantum Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Fantoni, Riccardo, E-mail: rfantoni@ts.infn.it; Moroni, Saverio, E-mail: moroni@democritos.it</p> <p></p> <p>We present a path integral Monte Carlo method which is the full quantum analogue of the Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo method of Panagiotopoulos to study the gas-liquid coexistence line of a classical fluid. Unlike previous extensions of Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo to include quantum effects, our scheme is viable even for systems with strong quantum delocalization in the degenerate regime of temperature. This is demonstrated by an illustrative application to the gas-superfluid transition of {sup 4}He in two dimensions.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_24 --> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27507324','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27507324"><span>Ensemble based adaptive over-sampling method for imbalanced data learning in computer aided detection of microaneurysm.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ren, Fulong; Cao, Peng; Li, Wei; Zhao, Dazhe; Zaiane, Osmar</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a progressive disease, and its detection at an early stage is crucial for saving a patient's vision. An automated screening system for DR can help in reduce the chances of complete blindness due to DR along with lowering the work load on ophthalmologists. Among the earliest signs of DR are microaneurysms (MAs). However, current schemes for MA detection appear to report many false positives because detection algorithms have high sensitivity. Inevitably some non-MAs structures are labeled as MAs in the initial MAs identification step. This is a typical "class imbalance problem". Class imbalanced data has detrimental effects on the performance of conventional classifiers. In this work, we propose an ensemble based adaptive over-sampling algorithm for overcoming the class imbalance problem in the false positive reduction, and we use Boosting, Bagging, Random subspace as the ensemble framework to improve microaneurysm detection. The ensemble based over-sampling methods we proposed combine the strength of adaptive over-sampling and ensemble. The objective of the amalgamation of ensemble and adaptive over-sampling is to reduce the induction biases introduced from imbalanced data and to enhance the generalization classification performance of extreme learning machines (ELM). Experimental results show that our ASOBoost method has higher area under the ROC curve (AUC) and G-mean values than many existing class imbalance learning methods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AtmEn.166..151K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AtmEn.166..151K"><span>Ensemble classification for identifying neighbourhood sources of fugitive dust and associations with observed PM10</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Khuluse-Makhanya, Sibusisiwe; Stein, Alfred; Breytenbach, André; Gxumisa, Athi; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko; Debba, Pravesh</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>In urban areas the deterioration of air quality as a result of fugitive dust receives less attention than the more prominent traffic and industrial emissions. We assessed whether fugitive dust emission sources in the neighbourhood of an air quality monitor are predictors of ambient PM10 concentrations on days characterized by strong local winds. An ensemble maximum likelihood method is developed for land cover mapping in the vicinity of an air quality station using SPOT 6 multi-spectral images. The ensemble maximum likelihood classifier is developed through multiple training iterations for improved accuracy of the bare soil class. Five primary land cover classes are considered, namely built-up areas, vegetation, bare soil, water and 'mixed bare soil' which denotes areas where soil is mixed with either vegetation or synthetic materials. Preliminary validation of the ensemble classifier for the bare soil class results in an accuracy range of 65-98%. Final validation of all classes results in an overall accuracy of 78%. Next, cluster analysis and a varying intercepts regression model are used to assess the statistical association between land cover, a fugitive dust emissions proxy and observed PM10. We found that land cover patterns in the neighbourhood of an air quality station are significant predictors of observed average PM10 concentrations on days when wind speeds are conducive for dust emissions. This study concludes that in the absence of an emissions inventory for ambient particulate matter, PM10 emitted from dust reservoirs can be statistically accounted for by land cover characteristics. This supports the use of land cover data for improved prediction of PM10 at locations without air quality monitoring stations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7876R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7876R"><span>Comparison of surface freshwater fluxes from different climate forecasts produced through different ensemble generation schemes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas; Wahl, Sabrina; Brune, Sebastian; Baehr, Johanna</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The decadal variability and its predictability of the surface net freshwater fluxes is compared in a set of retrospective predictions, all using the same model setup, and only differing in the implemented ocean initialisation method and ensemble generation method. The basic aim is to deduce the differences between the initialization/ensemble generation methods in view of the uncertainty of the verifying observational data sets. The analysis will give an approximation of the uncertainties of the net freshwater fluxes, which up to now appear to be one of the most uncertain products in observational data and model outputs. All ensemble generation methods are implemented into the MPI-ESM earth system model in the framework of the ongoing MiKlip project (www.fona-miklip.de). Hindcast experiments are initialised annually between 2000-2004, and from each start year 10 ensemble members are initialized for 5 years each. Four different ensemble generation methods are compared: (i) a method based on the Anomaly Transform method (Romanova and Hense, 2015) in which the initial oceanic perturbations represent orthogonal and balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between the variables taken from a control run, (ii) one-day-lagged ocean states from the MPI-ESM-LR baseline system (iii) one-day-lagged of ocean and atmospheric states with preceding full-field nudging to re-analysis in both the atmospheric and the oceanic component of the system - the baseline one MPI-ESM-LR system, (iv) an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) implemented into oceanic part of MPI-ESM (Brune et al. 2015), assimilating monthly subsurface oceanic temperature and salinity (EN3) using the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The hindcasts are evaluated probabilistically using fresh water flux data sets from four different reanalysis data sets: MERRA, NCEP-R1, GFDL ocean reanalysis and GECCO2. The assessments show no clear differences in the evaluations scores on regional scales. However, on the global scale the physically motivated methods (i) and (iv) provide probabilistic hindcasts with a consistently higher reliability than the lagged initialization methods (ii)/(iii) despite the large uncertainties in the verifying observations and in the simulations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28029786','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28029786"><span>Wang-Landau Reaction Ensemble Method: Simulation of Weak Polyelectrolytes and General Acid-Base Reactions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens</p> <p>2017-02-14</p> <p>We present a novel method for the study of weak polyelectrolytes and general acid-base reactions in molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The approach combines the advantages of the reaction ensemble and the Wang-Landau sampling method. Deprotonation and protonation reactions are simulated explicitly with the help of the reaction ensemble method, while the accurate sampling of the corresponding phase space is achieved by the Wang-Landau approach. The combination of both techniques provides a sufficient statistical accuracy such that meaningful estimates for the density of states and the partition sum can be obtained. With regard to these estimates, several thermodynamic observables like the heat capacity or reaction free energies can be calculated. We demonstrate that the computation times for the calculation of titration curves with a high statistical accuracy can be significantly decreased when compared to the original reaction ensemble method. The applicability of our approach is validated by the study of weak polyelectrolytes and their thermodynamic properties.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19740018956','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19740018956"><span>On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Johannesson, R.</p> <p>1973-01-01</p> <p>An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820015075','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820015075"><span>Program for narrow-band analysis of aircraft flyover noise using ensemble averaging techniques</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Gridley, D.</p> <p>1982-01-01</p> <p>A package of computer programs was developed for analyzing acoustic data from an aircraft flyover. The package assumes the aircraft is flying at constant altitude and constant velocity in a fixed attitude over a linear array of ground microphones. Aircraft position is provided by radar and an option exists for including the effects of the aircraft's rigid-body attitude relative to the flight path. Time synchronization between radar and acoustic recording stations permits ensemble averaging techniques to be applied to the acoustic data thereby increasing the statistical accuracy of the acoustic results. Measured layered meteorological data obtained during the flyovers are used to compute propagation effects through the atmosphere. Final results are narrow-band spectra and directivities corrected for the flight environment to an equivalent static condition at a specified radius.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3973688','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3973688"><span>Overlapped Partitioning for Ensemble Classifiers of P300-Based Brain-Computer Interfaces</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Onishi, Akinari; Natsume, Kiyohisa</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>A P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI) enables a wide range of people to control devices that improve their quality of life. Ensemble classifiers with naive partitioning were recently applied to the P300-based BCI and these classification performances were assessed. However, they were usually trained on a large amount of training data (e.g., 15300). In this study, we evaluated ensemble linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers with a newly proposed overlapped partitioning method using 900 training data. In addition, the classification performances of the ensemble classifier with naive partitioning and a single LDA classifier were compared. One of three conditions for dimension reduction was applied: the stepwise method, principal component analysis (PCA), or none. The results show that an ensemble stepwise LDA (SWLDA) classifier with overlapped partitioning achieved a better performance than the commonly used single SWLDA classifier and an ensemble SWLDA classifier with naive partitioning. This result implies that the performance of the SWLDA is improved by overlapped partitioning and the ensemble classifier with overlapped partitioning requires less training data than that with naive partitioning. This study contributes towards reducing the required amount of training data and achieving better classification performance. PMID:24695550</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24695550','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24695550"><span>Overlapped partitioning for ensemble classifiers of P300-based brain-computer interfaces.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Onishi, Akinari; Natsume, Kiyohisa</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>A P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI) enables a wide range of people to control devices that improve their quality of life. Ensemble classifiers with naive partitioning were recently applied to the P300-based BCI and these classification performances were assessed. However, they were usually trained on a large amount of training data (e.g., 15300). In this study, we evaluated ensemble linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers with a newly proposed overlapped partitioning method using 900 training data. In addition, the classification performances of the ensemble classifier with naive partitioning and a single LDA classifier were compared. One of three conditions for dimension reduction was applied: the stepwise method, principal component analysis (PCA), or none. The results show that an ensemble stepwise LDA (SWLDA) classifier with overlapped partitioning achieved a better performance than the commonly used single SWLDA classifier and an ensemble SWLDA classifier with naive partitioning. This result implies that the performance of the SWLDA is improved by overlapped partitioning and the ensemble classifier with overlapped partitioning requires less training data than that with naive partitioning. This study contributes towards reducing the required amount of training data and achieving better classification performance.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007LNCS.4682.1162C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007LNCS.4682.1162C"><span>Evolutionary Ensemble for In Silico Prediction of Ames Test Mutagenicity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Huanhuan; Yao, Xin</p> <p></p> <p>Driven by new regulations and animal welfare, the need to develop in silico models has increased recently as alternative approaches to safety assessment of chemicals without animal testing. This paper describes a novel machine learning ensemble approach to building an in silico model for the prediction of the Ames test mutagenicity, one of a battery of the most commonly used experimental in vitro and in vivo genotoxicity tests for safety evaluation of chemicals. Evolutionary random neural ensemble with negative correlation learning (ERNE) [1] was developed based on neural networks and evolutionary algorithms. ERNE combines the method of bootstrap sampling on training data with the method of random subspace feature selection to ensure diversity in creating individuals within an initial ensemble. Furthermore, while evolving individuals within the ensemble, it makes use of the negative correlation learning, enabling individual NNs to be trained as accurate as possible while still manage to maintain them as diverse as possible. Therefore, the resulting individuals in the final ensemble are capable of cooperating collectively to achieve better generalization of prediction. The empirical experiment suggest that ERNE is an effective ensemble approach for predicting the Ames test mutagenicity of chemicals.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010APExp...3i2801K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010APExp...3i2801K"><span>Optical Rabi Oscillations in a Quantum Dot Ensemble</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kujiraoka, Mamiko; Ishi-Hayase, Junko; Akahane, Kouichi; Yamamoto, Naokatsu; Ema, Kazuhiro; Sasaki, Masahide</p> <p>2010-09-01</p> <p>We have investigated Rabi oscillations of exciton polarization in a self-assembled InAs quantum dot ensemble. The four-wave mixing signals measured as a function of the average of the pulse area showed the large in-plane anisotropy and nonharmonic oscillations. The experimental results can be well reproduced by a two-level model calculation including three types of inhomogeneities without any fitting parameter. The large anisotropy can be well explained by the anisotropic dipole moments. We also find that the nonharmonic behaviors partly originate from the polarization interference.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24853864','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24853864"><span>A random matrix approach to credit risk.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4031172','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4031172"><span>A Random Matrix Approach to Credit Risk</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Guhr, Thomas</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided. PMID:24853864</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA478634','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA478634"><span>ensembleBMA: An R Package for Probabilistic Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2007-08-15</p> <p>library is used to allow addition of the legend and map outline to the plot. > bluescale <- function(n) hsv (4/6, s = seq(from = 1 /8, to = 1 , length = n...v = 1 ) > plotBMAforecast( probFreeze290104, lon=srftGridData$lon, lat =srftGridData$ lat , type="image", col=bluescale(100)) > title("Probability of...probPrecip130103) # used to determine zlim in plots [ 1 ] 0.02832709 0.99534860 > plotBMAforecast( probPrecip130103[,Ŕ"], lon=prcpGridData$lon, lat</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017IJT....38..149S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017IJT....38..149S"><span>Establishment of a New National Reference Ensemble of Water Triple Point Cells</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Senn, Remo</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>The results of the Bilateral Comparison EURAMET.T-K3.5 (w/VSL, The Netherlands) with the goal to link Switzerland's ITS-90 realization (Ar to Al) to the latest key comparisons gave strong indications for a discrepancy in the realization of the triple point of water. Due to the age of the cells of about twenty years, it was decided to replace the complete reference ensemble with new "state-of-the-art" cells. Three new water triple point cells from three different suppliers were purchased, as well as a new maintenance bath for an additional improvement of the realization. In several loops measurements were taken, each cell of both ensembles intercompared, and the deviations and characteristics determined. The measurements show a significant lower average value of the old ensemble of 0.59 ± 0.25 mK (k=2) in comparison with the new one. Likewise, the behavior of the old cells is very unstable with a drift downward during the realization of the triple point. Based on these results the impact of the new ensemble on the ITS-90 realization from Ar to Al was calculated and set in the context to performed calibrations and their related uncertainties in the past. This paper presents the instrumentation, cells, measurement procedure, results, uncertainties and impact of the new national reference ensemble of water triple point cells on the current ITS-90 realization in Switzerland.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22261648-stochastic-dynamics-small-ensembles-non-processive-molecular-motors-parallel-cluster-model','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22261648-stochastic-dynamics-small-ensembles-non-processive-molecular-motors-parallel-cluster-model"><span>Stochastic dynamics of small ensembles of non-processive molecular motors: The parallel cluster model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Erdmann, Thorsten; Albert, Philipp J.; Schwarz, Ulrich S.</p> <p>2013-11-07</p> <p>Non-processive molecular motors have to work together in ensembles in order to generate appreciable levels of force or movement. In skeletal muscle, for example, hundreds of myosin II molecules cooperate in thick filaments. In non-muscle cells, by contrast, small groups with few tens of non-muscle myosin II motors contribute to essential cellular processes such as transport, shape changes, or mechanosensing. Here we introduce a detailed and analytically tractable model for this important situation. Using a three-state crossbridge model for the myosin II motor cycle and exploiting the assumptions of fast power stroke kinetics and equal load sharing between motors inmore » equivalent states, we reduce the stochastic reaction network to a one-step master equation for the binding and unbinding dynamics (parallel cluster model) and derive the rules for ensemble movement. We find that for constant external load, ensemble dynamics is strongly shaped by the catch bond character of myosin II, which leads to an increase of the fraction of bound motors under load and thus to firm attachment even for small ensembles. This adaptation to load results in a concave force-velocity relation described by a Hill relation. For external load provided by a linear spring, myosin II ensembles dynamically adjust themselves towards an isometric state with constant average position and load. The dynamics of the ensembles is now determined mainly by the distribution of motors over the different kinds of bound states. For increasing stiffness of the external spring, there is a sharp transition beyond which myosin II can no longer perform the power stroke. Slow unbinding from the pre-power-stroke state protects the ensembles against detachment.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5839517','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5839517"><span>Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Anderson, G.B.; Jones, B.; McGinnis, S.A.; Sanderson, B.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1°C (southeast) to 4.6°C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50%. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5. PMID:29520121</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29583068','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29583068"><span>HLPI-Ensemble: Prediction of human lncRNA-protein interactions based on ensemble strategy.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hu, Huan; Zhang, Li; Ai, Haixin; Zhang, Hui; Fan, Yetian; Zhao, Qi; Liu, Hongsheng</p> <p>2018-03-27</p> <p>LncRNA plays an important role in many biological and disease progression by binding to related proteins. However, the experimental methods for studying lncRNA-protein interactions are time-consuming and expensive. Although there are a few models designed to predict the interactions of ncRNA-protein, they all have some common drawbacks that limit their predictive performance. In this study, we present a model called HLPI-Ensemble designed specifically for human lncRNA-protein interactions. HLPI-Ensemble adopts the ensemble strategy based on three mainstream machine learning algorithms of Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) to generate HLPI-SVM Ensemble, HLPI-RF Ensemble and HLPI-XGB Ensemble, respectively. The results of 10-fold cross-validation show that HLPI-SVM Ensemble, HLPI-RF Ensemble and HLPI-XGB Ensemble achieved AUCs of 0.95, 0.96 and 0.96, respectively, in the test dataset. Furthermore, we compared the performance of the HLPI-Ensemble models with the previous models through external validation dataset. The results show that the false positives (FPs) of HLPI-Ensemble models are much lower than that of the previous models, and other evaluation indicators of HLPI-Ensemble models are also higher than those of the previous models. It is further showed that HLPI-Ensemble models are superior in predicting human lncRNA-protein interaction compared with previous models. The HLPI-Ensemble is publicly available at: http://ccsipb.lnu.edu.cn/hlpiensemble/ .</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JChPh.123x4906C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JChPh.123x4906C"><span>Exploring the free-energy landscape of a short peptide using an average force</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chipot, Christophe; Hénin, Jérôme</p> <p>2005-12-01</p> <p>The reversible folding of deca-alanine is chosen as a test case for characterizing a method that uses an adaptive biasing force (ABF) to escape from the minima and overcome the barriers of the free-energy landscape. This approach relies on the continuous estimation of a biasing force that yields a Hamiltonian in which no average force is exerted along the ordering parameter ξ. Optimizing the parameters that control how the ABF is applied, the method is shown to be extremely effective when a nonequivocal ordering parameter can be defined to explore the folding pathway of the peptide. Starting from a β-turn motif and restraining ξ to a region of the conformational space that extends from the α-helical state to an ensemble of extended structures, the ABF scheme is successful in folding the peptide chain into a compact α helix. Sampling of this conformation is, however, marginal when the range of ξ values embraces arrangements of greater compactness, hence demonstrating the inherent limitations of free-energy methods when ambiguous ordering parameters are utilized.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhyA..419..221H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhyA..419..221H"><span>Variable diffusion in stock market fluctuations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hua, Jia-Chen; Chen, Lijian; Falcon, Liberty; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>We analyze intraday fluctuations in several stock indices to investigate the underlying stochastic processes using techniques appropriate for processes with nonstationary increments. The five most actively traded stocks each contains two time intervals during the day where the variance of increments can be fit by power law scaling in time. The fluctuations in return within these intervals follow asymptotic bi-exponential distributions. The autocorrelation function for increments vanishes rapidly, but decays slowly for absolute and squared increments. Based on these results, we propose an intraday stochastic model with linear variable diffusion coefficient as a lowest order approximation to the real dynamics of financial markets, and to test the effects of time averaging techniques typically used for financial time series analysis. We find that our model replicates major stylized facts associated with empirical financial time series. We also find that ensemble averaging techniques can be used to identify the underlying dynamics correctly, whereas time averages fail in this task. Our work indicates that ensemble average approaches will yield new insight into the study of financial markets' dynamics. Our proposed model also provides new insight into the modeling of financial markets dynamics in microscopic time scales.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21583318-crossover-ensembles-random-matrices-skew-orthogonal-polynomials','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21583318-crossover-ensembles-random-matrices-skew-orthogonal-polynomials"><span>Crossover ensembles of random matrices and skew-orthogonal polynomials</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Kumar, Santosh, E-mail: skumar.physics@gmail.com; Pandey, Akhilesh, E-mail: ap0700@mail.jnu.ac.in</p> <p>2011-08-15</p> <p>Highlights: > We study crossover ensembles of Jacobi family of random matrices. > We consider correlations for orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers. > We use the method of skew-orthogonal polynomials and quaternion determinants. > We prove universality of spectral correlations in crossover ensembles. > We discuss applications to quantum conductance and communication theory problems. - Abstract: In a recent paper (S. Kumar, A. Pandey, Phys. Rev. E, 79, 2009, p. 026211) we considered Jacobi family (including Laguerre and Gaussian cases) of random matrix ensembles and reported exact solutions of crossover problems involving time-reversal symmetry breaking. In the present paper we givemore » details of the work. We start with Dyson's Brownian motion description of random matrix ensembles and obtain universal hierarchic relations among the unfolded correlation functions. For arbitrary dimensions we derive the joint probability density (jpd) of eigenvalues for all transitions leading to unitary ensembles as equilibrium ensembles. We focus on the orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers and give generic expressions for jpd of eigenvalues, two-point kernels and n-level correlation functions. This involves generalization of the theory of skew-orthogonal polynomials to crossover ensembles. We also consider crossovers in the circular ensembles to show the generality of our method. In the large dimensionality limit, correlations in spectra with arbitrary initial density are shown to be universal when expressed in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter. Applications of our crossover results to communication theory and quantum conductance problems are also briefly discussed.« less</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_25 --> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted" style="margin-bottom:1rem; text-align:center;">Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. 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